Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-05-17 | Raiders v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Miami +3 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We expect the Fins to come out with some serious passion here after getting thoroughly embarrassed in their most recent game @ Baltimore. They lost that game 40-0 on a Thursday so they’ve had 10 days to steam about that one and get ready for Oakland. Remember Miami was playing quite well leading into that terrible loss winning 3 straight. While their offense has struggled at times Miami had scored 51 points in their previous 2 games leading into their Baltimore loss. They also get Jay Cutler back at QB here which will help. Not sure why the Raiders would be a full FG favorite on the road in this one. They are coming off a 34-14 loss @ Buffalo last week and are now on the east coast again. They did stay east but that often times messes up a team’s routine. On top of that Oakland has lost 5 of their last 6 games with their only win coming at home by a single point. This isn’t the Oakland of last year. Much has been made of Miami’s offense being stale but let’s not forget the Raiders have scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Miami’s defense is very good ranking 7th in the NFL so we don’t look for the Oakland offense to get on track here. Oakland laying points on the road with a struggling offense and a defense that is ranked 26th in the NFL is not a good combination. Take the points on Sunday night. |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -7 over Washington, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Redskins are a mash unit right now especially on the offensive line. 4 of their 5 starters up front are questionable in this game. The Skins have lost 3 of their last 4 games with all 3 setbacks coming by at least 9 points. They are also in a tough situational spot coming off two huge NFC East games vs Dallas & Philly, both losses, and now they must travel across the country. The Seattle offense which struggled early in the season is now starting to heat up. After scoring just 9 & 12 points in their first two games of the season, the Seahawks have averaged 31 PPG since. They’ve also won 5 of their last 6 games. We expect the Seattle defense to come out with a chip on their shoulder as well after allowing Houston to score 29 points on them here at home in their most recent game. Before that, this defense has allowed more than 18 points only once all season. Seattle is simply a fantastic home team. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB they are 42-6 here at home (29-17-2 ATS). Better yet, if they are favored at home by a TD or less this team is 25-9-1 ATS! Washington, on the other hand, has won only 9 of their last 32 road games. Seattle is at home for the 2nd straight game and they roll here. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
We will play on the NY Jets (+3) over the Buffalo Bills - 8:25 PM ET - The Bills are 5-2 SU on the year and looking like a playoff team in the AFC. The Jets are 3-5 SU and, well umm, look like the Jets. But seriously you should never bet games on just the 'eyeball' test as some underlying numbers tell us the Bills aren't as good as their record while the Jets are actually a little better than theirs. Buffalo has been outgained by foes in 6 of seven games this season and in those six games they were outgained by an average of 83YPG. The Bills offense is 28th in the NFL in total yards per game at just 303 and 25th in yards per play at 4.8YPPL. The Jets on the other hand are averaging more total yards per game at 307.9YPG and rank near the league average in yards per play at 5.2YPPL. Both teams have similar defensive statistics too with the Bills allowing 346.6YPG compared to the Jets 361.4YPG. They each allow right around 5.4YPPL defensively too. So why is there a drastic difference in their records and perceptions of their overall teams? Buffalo has 17 takeaways this season and just 3 turnovers while the Jets have 13 takeaways but 14 turnovers. The value in the number is clearly with the Jets in this game as they were +7 at Buffalo in the season opener and are now +3 at home. Take the home dog on a short week playing with revenge! |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
We're going to grab the points and the Broncos (+) on Monday night is this big AFC West rivalry. Both teams come into tonight's game having lost two straight games but both results were misleading. Denver outgained both foes but turned the ball over 6 times and blew several scoring opportunities. Kansas City on the other hand was outgained in both games by a total of 268 yards and they were plus one in total turnovers. In terms of defensive efficiency ratings the Broncos have a decided advantage with the 4th best DEFF rating in the NFL compared to KC's 24th. The Broncos allow just 4.5 yards per play compared to 6.1YPPL allowed by the Chiefs. Denver's defense is giving up just 258YPG this season which is on par with the Steelers who just held KC to 13 points and 251 total yards. Offensively the Chiefs hold an edge with the #1 ranked offensive efficiency numbers while the Broncos are 22nd. A big reason for Denver's poor overall OEFF numbers are their turnovers this season so if they value the football, it will translate to better numbers and obviously more wins. This is a great spot to take an undervalued 'dog' with a great defense getting a full TD. The Broncos are 14-5 ATS (15-4 SU) their last 19 division road games. Since 2012, home division favorites on MNF are a horrendous 3-12-2 ATS (20%) and road teams on MNF that have lost 2+ consecutive games are 11-3 ATS. In this rivalry the Chiefs have been favored by 7 or more points just three times since 1980. The play here is the DOG and points - DENVER BRONCOS! |
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10-29-17 | Colts v. Bengals OVER 42 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 42 Points - Indianapolis @ Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We are play OVER 42 in the Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals game. 1PM ET - We love the situation here as the oddsmakers have OVER-ADJUSTED the line on this game as the Colts are coming off scoring 0 points against the Jaguars while the Bengals put up just 14 in Pittsburgh. So now we have a very favorable line with two offenses that are better than they showed a week ago. These two teams just faced the two best defenses in the NFL last week when it come to overall defensive efficiency ratings. The Jags and Steelers both rand 2nd and 3rd in points allowed per game at less than 17PPG. So now these offenses will see defenses that are significantly worse as the Bengals are 11th overall in DEFF while the Colts are 30th. In comparable instances this season: The Bengals got off to a horrible start to the season offensively, then fired their O-coordinator. They then put up 291 yards and 20 points against the Packers (18th DEFF), 350 yards and 31 points versus the Browns (19th DEFF) and 398 yards and 20 points against the Bills 8th ranked DEFF unit. Now they go up against a Colts D that is 30th in terms of DEFF allowing nearly 32PPG on the season. Indianapolis was completely shut down by the Jags defense last week but in their two previous games against San Francisco and Tennessee they put up 26 and 22 points with an average of 372 yards per game. 5 of the Colts seven games this year have finished with 49 or more total points. Cincinnati hasn't played in many higher scoring games this year but they played four games against defenses ranked 8th or better in defensive efficiency ratings! The bet here is OVER! |
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10-29-17 | Vikings -10 v. Browns | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Minnesota -10 over Cleveland, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET The Browns have been competitive at times at home this year, but when they venture away from Cleveland they have been beaten soundly. The only exception to that is a 3-point loss @ Indy who many feel is the worst team (yes worse than Cleveland) in the NFL. Their other games away from home were double digit losses @ Baltimore and @ Houston. The Browns are off a disappointing OT home loss to Tennessee. Now they must travel to London in a somewhat meaningless game for a team that is 0-7. The Browns have now lost 23 of their last 24 games and they are just 8-16 ATS in those games. This is a team that has led for a grand total of 2 SNAPS this season. Their offense has been terrible topping 18 points only once the entire season. They rank dead last in the NFL in offensive efficiency. On top of that they will be without their best offensive linemen (Joe Thomas) who is arguably their best player as well. It won’t get any better here facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 4th in total defense (283 YPG) and YPP defense (4.6). Only one team has reached 20 points on this Viking defense this year and that was Pittsburgh. The Vikings are fighting for the NFC North title while Cleveland has nothing to play for in London. We expect the Browns to do next to nothing offensively and Minnesota to pick up an easy win early on Sunday. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +5 v. Eagles | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -113 | 56 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +5 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET These two met in the season opener and Philly won 30-17. Since that opening weekend loss, the Skins have lost only one time and that was @ KC in a game that was tied with 8 seconds remaining. In their loss to the Eagles, Washington played their worst game of the season with 4 turnovers. Two of those were in Eagle territory, one was a fumbled punt, and one was fumble return for a Philly TD. In other words, the turnovers made a huge difference in the outcome of the game as they usually do. Washington QB Kirk Cousins was poor in that one but has been very good since. In his last 3 games he’s thrown for almost 1,000 yards with 8 TD’s and just 1 interception. Cousins has also been great in this spot going 9-3 ATS as a division underdog. The Eagles are getting a lot of publicity right now as the potential team to beat in the NFC. We know that situation changes almost on a weekly basis and feel the Eagles are bit overvalued right now. They did have a solid win most recently @ Carolina 28-23 but benefitted from 3 Cam Newton interceptions. Their other 3 wins, besides Washington, came against the Giants, Cards, and Chargers who have combined to win 6 games this season. As far as yards per play numbers are concerned (we feel these are most important), Washington gets the nod both offensively (6.1 to 5.9) and defensively (5.5 to 5.7). At worst, these two teams should be rated dead even on a neutral field to the 4.5 points Philly is laying here is off. Before their loss earlier this year, the Skins had won 6 straight vs the Eagles and they have a little extra motivation here. Even if they lose, we anticipate this game being close. Take the points. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos v. Chargers | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Denver (pick-em) over LA Chargers, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET We expect a very good game from Denver after their embarrassing home effort last Sunday vs the depleted Giants. The Broncos were +146 yards in that game but turned the ball over 3 times (0 for the Giants) including QB Siemian throwing a pick 6. Denver is 3-2 on the season but their stats tell us they have outgained all 5 of their opponents this season. The Chargers began the season 0-4 but are back “home” off two road wins. They squeaked by the 1-6 Giants on the road and topped a struggling Oakland team by 1-point. The Bolts have ZERO home field advantage in LA this year and in fact, in the majority of their home tilts the opposing team has had more fans. You can expect the same here as the Bronco contingent travels well. The Chargers are 0-3 both SU & ATS at home this year. When these two met in Denver earlier this year, the Broncos came away with a 24-21 win. It wasn’t that close as Denver led 24-7 nearly midway through the 4th quarter when the Chargers added a few scores. The Broncos outgained LA 321 to 249 in the game. Denver has been a GREAT road team in division play winning 15 of their last 18 outright (14-4 ATS). We like the top defense in the NFL (261 YPG allowed) coming off a poor performance to win this game outright. Take Denver. |
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10-22-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Colts | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville -3 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are absolutely the superior team here. We feel they are better than their 3-3 record while Indy isn’t as good as their 2-4 might tell us. The match up here is a mismatch. The Jags are #1 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. The Colts offense ranks 29th in efficiency. They will struggle big time to put points on the board here. Last week the Jags faced off against the #2 scoring offense in the NFL (Rams) and held them to one offensive TD. A week earlier they faced a potent Pittsburgh offense and held them to 9 points. They have held half their opponents (3) to under 10 points. Now they face the least efficient offense they’ve seen this year. On the other side of the ball, the Jags have been up and down offensively, however they should break out here against the 32nd (last) most efficient defense in the NFL. Indy has two 3-point wins vs SF & Cleveland who are combined 0-12. In their 4 losses the Colts have a point differential of minus 82! Jacksonville is off a home loss to the Rams, a game in which they outgained LA by 140 but allowed 2 non-offensive TD’s. Off that loss we expect a big performance here. The Jags outgain their opponents 5.4 YPP to 5.1 for a +0.3 YPP differential. The Colts have been outgained 5.2 YPP to 6.4 YPP for a -1.2 YPP differential. Jacksonville is 2-1 on the road this year with wins @ Pittsburgh and @ Houston. This is a low number and we like the Jaguars to control this game and get the easy cover. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans UNDER 47 | Top | 22-36 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
ASA play on UNDER 47 Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans, 8:30PM ET - The reports out of Tennessee is that QB Marcus Mariota is very limited right now and if he’s able to play will be confined to the pocket. That means a heavy dose of the running game against a Colts defense that is 21st in the NFL in our rush efficiency ratings. Breaking down the numbers even further we find the Colts rush D is even worse than the stats show as they’ve faced the two worst rushing offenses in in terms of efficiency stats (49ers 31st, Cardinals 32nd) and the Rams who rank 22nd. Now Indianapolis will try to stop a Titans offense that ranks 2nd in the NFL in rushing efficiency and averages 4.8 yards per carry which is 4th best in the league. In other words it sets up perfectly for the Titans to come into this game with a conservative game plan and protect their franchise QB. The Colts offense looked good in two games this year versus the 49ers and Browns who are a combined 0-12 SU this year. Tennessee’s defense is better than the statistics show as their aberration game versus the Texans, allowed 57 points, over 500 yard and 5 TO’s by O, has skewed their overall numbers. These two teams are also two of the slower paced teams in the league when it comes to pace of play. We like UNDER the number here. |
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10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos -11 | Top | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -11 over NY Giants, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants are in trouble here. They are 0-5 and have lost 3 straight down to the wire games. Now after essentially having their playoff hopes dashed they must travel west to face a rested Denver team. How is NY going to score in this one? They can’t run the ball (just 77 YPG) and that won’t change here facing a Denver team that leads the NFL allowing only 50 YPG on the ground. So they must lean on an immobile Eli Manning to try and make something happen vs a very active and athletic Denver front 7. Manning was sacked 5 times last week at home vs the Chargers and we can expect the same here. The problem is, he has nobody left to throw to. His 3 top WR’s (Beckham, Marshall, and Shepherd) are all out. Denver’s offense will run the ball and work in play action to put points on the board here. They are facing a tired Giants defense that has faced an average of 67 plays per games this year (3rd most in the NFL). That tired defense has allowed at least 24 points in all but one game this year. If Denver gets to 24 as we expect, that should be enough to cover here vs a Giant offense that will struggle big time in this game. |
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10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars OVER 42 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON Over 42 Points - LA Rams @ Jacksonville, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET This total has come down a few points from the opener and we feel it is now too low. We get the Jags defense ranks very highly, but they can’t stop the run. The Rams Todd Gurley will have a big day which will help set up the pass for a vastly improved Jared Goff. Let’s not forget the Rams are 2nd in the NFL in scoring averaging 30 PPG. Last week they scored only 10 points vs a very good Seattle defense but don’t be fooled by that number. LA had 375 yards in the game and blew a number of opportunities to put points on the board. They had a TD overturned when it was ruled Gurley fumbled on the 1 yard line. They were also shut out deep in Seattle territory on downs, missed a FG, and had two turnover in Seahawk territory. Before last week’s game, the Rams scored 35 or more in 3 of their first 4 games. The Jag defense looked great last week vs Pitt giving up only 9 points right? Not so fast. A Pitt offense, that had been struggling anyway, had 371 yards but 5 Steeler turnovers killed a number of drives. The 30 points put up by Jacksonville was obviously helped out by the Pitt turnovers but this offense is capable. They have scored 20 points or more in 4 of their 5 games and the Rams defense that has allowed 30 or more in 2 of their last 3 games. OVER is the play here. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -3 over Philadelphia, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Panther defense has played very well all season. They just needed the offense to catch up and when and if that happened, this team would be very good. We’ll it’s happened. After scoring only 45 points over their first 3 games, the Cats have scored 60 points their last two games. Those were both road wins over New England and Detroit. After struggling early this year, QB Cam Newton has really found his groove throwing for almost 700 yards, 6 TD’s and just 1 pick his last 2 games. Last week’s win @ Detroit was close on the scoreboard (27-24) but Carolina dominated the game. They led 27-10 entering the 4th quarter and outgained the Lions by 120 yards. Philly comes in with a 4-1 record, however 3 of their 4 wins have come against the Giants, Chargers, and Cards who have a combined 3-12 record. This is also a tough spot for the Eagles going on the road in a short week. It’s also their 4th road game already this year. Carolina has played the tougher schedule and have averaged 5.5 YPP while allowing 5.1 (+0.4 YPP differential). Philly has played three of the worst teams in the NFL and they are averaging 6 YPP but allowing 6.2 (-0.2 YPP differential). Big edge defensively to the home team here and while the Eagles have better numbers offensively, the way Carolina is playing on that side of the ball right now we’re not sure there is any edge. Also, it looks like Philly will be without their best offensive lineman Lane Johnson who is in concussion protocol. That would be a huge blow to the Eagle offense. Carolina is the play on Thursday night. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 41 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
PLAY UNDER 41 Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, Monday 8:30PM ET - We like the spot here for an UNDER wager and expect a lower scoring game in this NFC North Division showdown. Chicago has made the switch to rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky which is an indicator they’ll take a “ground & pound” approach tonight with a conservative game plan to protect the rookie. Actually, beating the Vikings on the ground has been what’s worked for the Bears in the past. In last year’s two meetings the Bears rushed for 158 and 183 yards against Minnesota and their home win over the Vikes was a 20-10 (under) win. Minnesota will probably take the same approach here as they rank 12th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game and will focus on the running game in an effort to protect their QB Bradford who is coming off an injury. The reason we mention the running games is simple. Games that feature more runs than passes are typically lower scoring with less clock stoppage and less plays run. Chicago has a MUCH better defense than they rate statistically (20th in efficiency ratings) as they’ve played four of the NFL’s top 12 offenses this year. They’ve held EVERY ONE of those offenses below their season averages and three of the four teams produced their lowest offensive output of the year versus the Bears. Chicago has held the Falcons (8th), Packers (10th), Steelers (7th) and Bucs (12th) to a combined 206 total yards less than their season averages! An overrated Vikings offense will have a tough time scoring here. On that note, the Vikings rank 5th in the NFL in offensive efficiency rankings but let’s now examine who they’ve played. Minnesota has played Saints, Steelers, Bucs and Lions. Against the Saints (20th DEFF) they racked up 470 yards and 29 points. Versus the Bucs (25th DEFF) they put up 34 points and 494 total yards of O. But against two similar defenses to the Bears (Steelers & Lions) they managed 237 and 284 total yards and 16 total points. Do you see where we are going here? These two offenses rank 27th and 29th in yards per point offense and we can’t see many points being scored in this one. Under is 4-1 the L5 meetings in Chicago and 8-3 Under last 11 overall. BET UNDER! |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +1 over KC, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET KC comes into this game with a perfect 4-0 ATS record and we feel they are overvalued at this point. Last week was one of the luckiest covers you’ll ever see as the Chiefs scored 9 points in the final 7 seconds of the game to win and cover 29-20 vs Washington. Their defensive TD as time expired was the only time KC was covering the entire game. Since their switch to Watson at QB, Houston is really playing well. They are 3-0 ATS with Watson at the helm and 2-1 SU. Their lone loss was @ New England 36-33 in a game they really outplayed the Pats. The outgained and had more first downs than NE in that game on the road. Last week, Houston beat a very solid Tennessee team 57-14 outgaining them 445 to 195! After scoring only 1 TD on 203 total yards in their opening season loss to Jacksonville, the Texans have averaged 376 YPG and 34 PPG under Watson’s direction. So the offense is clicking right now and should do well against a KC defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in total defense. Houston rates a large edge defensively (5th in the NFL) and has one of the top defensive lines in the league. That should give KC all kinds of problems with an offensive line that rates one of the weakest pass protecting unit which has already given up 16 sacks on the season. Houston won here vs KC last year 19-12 and we really like them to win this game at home on Sunday night. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Bills are a false 3-1 in our opinion. They’ve been outgained in 3 of their 4 games (only outgained the Jets) and they are poor offensively scoring only 18 PPG on 4.6 YPP. Last week they topped Atlanta on the road but a close look at the boxscore reveals they were thoroughly outplayed in that game as they were outgained by 100 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. Same with the week before at home vs Denver. Thus we have a team that has won 2 straight games outright as an underdog but has been outplayed on the field. That creates a perfect spot to go against them here. On top of that, Buffalo is playing back to back road games here and this is their 3rd trip away from home in their first 4 weeks of the season. Cincinnati is an undervalued team in our view. They started the season scoring only 9 total points in their first 2 games. They fired their offensive coordinator and replaced him with a veteran (Zampese) and they have responded with 55 points their last 2 games. Their offense is starting to click. Their defense is very solid having held 3 of their 4 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The also get one of the top defensive players back here (LB Burfict). There is a reason the 1-3 team (Bengals) are favored over the 3-1 team here. We like this spot and we’ll take Cincinnati. |
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10-08-17 | 49ers v. Colts OVER 44.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points - San Francisco @ Indianapolis, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET These two offenses have struggled but for the most part they’ve been facing off against very good defenses. Indy has faced Seattle, Arizona, and the LA Rams all of which who rank in the top 13 in the NFL in defensive efficiency. The one poor defense they faced was Cleveland (30th in efficiency) and they put up 31 points on the Browns. Very similar situation for the Niners. They have faced Seattle, Arizona, and the Rams as well along with Carolina. All 4 of those teams rank in the top 13 in defensive efficiency. Now each get to face a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league and we think the offenses will shine here. San Fran has a very good offensive mind as their head coach as Shanahan was the OC for Atlanta’s record season last year. Indy’s QB Brissett had looked better each week and is getting more comfortable as the starter. The Indy defense has allowed 28 points or more in 3 of their 4 games including twice allowing 46 points twice (Rams & Seahawks). San Fran’s defense was solid last week but that was against an Arizona offense that has been outright bad. In their previous 3 games they allowed 25 PPG. These two offense finally get to face a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league and it will show. OVER is the play. |
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10-05-17 | Patriots v. Bucs OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 55.5 Points - New England @ Tampa Bay, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET This number is set very high (currently at 56) however we don’t think its high enough. First we have two bad defenses in this one. New England is the worst defense in the NFL allowing 457 YPG on a ridiculous 7.4 YPP. Tampa is 30th in total defense giving up almost 400 YPG. On top of that Tampa is terrible stopping opponents on 3rd down allowing a 50% success rate which is last in the NFL. They allow offenses to keep drives alive and score points. The Pats have allowed 42, 20, 33, and 33 points in their four games this season. While the Patriot defense is allowing plenty of points, their offense has scored the 2nd most points in the NFL. That has led to ALL high scoring games so far this season – 69, 69, 66, and 56 points. After holding Chicago to 7 points in their first game, they allowed nearly 500 yards to Minnesota (Vikings with back up QB) in their second game. Last week their game with the Giants totaled 48 points but is should have been much higher. There were 3 missed FG’s and 2 missed 2-point conversions in that game. On top of that, the Bucs had a first and goal and the 1-yard line and had to settle for a FG. Both teams will put up plenty of points in this one. Take the OVER |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs UNDER 48.5 | Top | 20-29 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 Points - Washington @ KC, Monday at 8:30 PM ET With both defenses ranked inside the top 10 in overall efficiency, we definitely like the UNDER here. Washington’s defense was simply phenomenal last week. They faced a potent Oakland offense last week and held them to 96 yards passing and 32 yards rushing. That’s 128 TOTAL yards and just 2.7 YPP vs one of the very best offenses in the NFL. Oakland was averaging 386 YPG on over 6 YPP coming into last week. Since their opening game in New England, the KC defense has allowed just 20 & 10 points to Philly & the Chargers. The KC offense has also tapered back a bit after their opening 43 point outburst vs New England. Since that they’ve scored 27 & 24, however many of those points have come very late in games. In fact, of their 51 points they’ve scored overall the last 2 games, 21 have come in the 4th quarter with under 6:00 minutes remaining in the game. Their game vs Philly was sitting at just 26 points with 6:30 remaining in the game and hit 47. Lots of scoring late in their recent games which has made their games look higher scoring than they probably should have been. This total is set at 49.5 and 5 of the 6 games these two have played this year have stayed under that number. KC is a VERY STRONG Under team at home going 43-21-2 to the UNDER since 2009. Too many points here. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Seattle -13 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Seattle offense finally started clicking last week putting up 27 points in Tennessee on 6.3 yards per play. The defense on the other hand was disappointing allowing 33 points to the Titans. You can bet they’ll play with passion this week after last week’s ugly performance. They should get it right against a Colt offense that has been held to 13 or under in 2 of their 3 games. Last week Indy scored 31 points on the Browns but that was the Browns. The fact is, they’ve been outgained in all 3 of their games and quite significantly vs the Rams (-148 yards) & the Cards (-123 yards). The Seattle defense allowed 17 & 9 points their first two games of the season and we like them to hold Indy down on Sunday night. The Seahawk offense should continue on their upward trend vs an Indy defense that has given up at least 28 points in 2 of their 3 games. The Colts have played one road game this year and that was a 46-9 whitewashing @ LA Rams. This is a must win for Seattle with a 1-2 record. Losses @ Green Bay and @ Tennessee are nothing to be ashamed of. The Hawks are 29-16-1 ATS (65%) at home since Russell Wilson took over at QB and we think this one has the makings of a blowout. |
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10-01-17 | Giants v. Bucs OVER 44.5 | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 Points - NY Giants @ Tampa Bay, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET The Giants offense has been struggle but looked like they turned the corner last week against a very good Philadelphia defense. They put up 24 points on 6.5 yards per play. In reality, they should have scored much more. That’s because they were stopped on downs at the Philly 1 yard line and 13 yard line. The offensive line is getting better and with Odell Beckham at or near 100% this is definitely a much better offense than they showed in their first few games. Now they are clicking a face a TB defense that allowed Minnesota to rack up nearly 500 yards last Sunday with their backup QB (Case Keenum). The Tampa defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL after two games allowing over 6 YPP. The strength of the Bucs is definitely their offense. They actually played quite well last week averaging 6.7 YPP vs a very good Minnesota defense. Jameis Winston threw 3 interceptions in Minnesota territory which would have most likely led to points. The Giant defense is good but they look a step behind last year’s unit as they’ve already allowed 24 or more points in 2 of their 3 games. This total is set too low and we take advantage by grabbing the OVER. |
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10-01-17 | Saints -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans -3 over Miami, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - @ London This is just a horrible spot for the Fins. Let’s not forget this team has yet to play at home this season. They opened with a win in LA vs the Chargers, then traveled east and lost in New York to the Jets, and now they head overseas to play in London. Not an ideal situation. Their defense has been poor allowing 375 yards to the Chargers in week 1 and 336 to a bad Jets offense last week. Offensively they’ve scored just 25 points in 2 games. The two teams they’ve faced are 1-5 on the season. New Orleans is 1-2 but they’ve played 3 playoff caliber teams. They lost to New England and @ Minnesota when the Vikes were at full strength. Last week they dominated the Panthers on the road winning by 21 points. Drew Brees has been sharp with 6 TD’s and no interceptions. Neither defense is very good, however we have a big advantage offensively with the Saints. They are averaging nearly 2 yards per play more than the Fins despite playing the tougher schedule. The situational edge also favors the Saints and we’ll lay the points. |
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09-28-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Tonight we play on the Chicago Bears plus the points over the Green Bay Packers. This sets up as a potential ‘rush doubling underdog’ which is ALWAYS a solid bet in the NFL. Green Bay comes into this game with one of the worst rushing offenses in the league averaging just 69 yards per game which is 30th in the NFL. The alarming part is that the lack of a ground game has come against 2 of the eight worst rush defenses in the NFL. In comparison the Bears have the 8th best rushing ‘O’ in the league at 121 yards per game and they’ve played two of the 10 best rush defenses in the NFL. Yes, the Packers have a huge advantage at the QB position with Aaron Rodgers versus Mike Glennon but a banged up offensive line for the Packers is causing major issues for Green Bay’s offense. The Pack are one of the league leaders in total passing yards per game but also rank in the bottom half of the league in passing yards per play which is not a good sign for Packer fans. Chicago has faced two of the league’s best offenses this season in the Falcons and Steelers and more than held their own. The Bears are 12th in total defense allowing 321YPG. The Bears with running back Howard will challenge a Packers rush defense that is 21st in the NFL in stopping the run. Take the big dog here with the rushing edge support. Thursday & Monday night underdogs are 6-0 ATS this season. |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals UNDER 47 | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Tonight we will play UNDER 47 in the Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals game. Kickoff is 8:30PM ET. NFL scoring is down dramatically right now as going into this weekend league games were averaging just 39PPG. That number is significantly less that last year’s average total points scored of 45.8. In 2015 that number was 44.8PPG. While the ‘markets’ will eventually start to correct, we don’t see it happening here tonight. These two teams rank in the bottom third of the league in yards per point with the Cardinals averaging 17.9YPPT (24th in NFL) and the Cowboys averaging 18.3YPPT (25th). But both rank top 10 in the league in yards per play (Arizona 5th @ 4.6YPPL - Dallas 8th 4.9YPPL) and total yards allowed per game defensively. Both teams have played in one lower scoring game (unders) and one higher scoring game (overs) this season but let’s examine the higher scoring games. Arizona played in Detroit in the season opener and the two teams combined for 58 total points BUT 21 came in the final 4 minutes of play and several scores were set up by turnovers. Last week Dallas went to Denver and gave up 42 points to the Broncos. Based on Denver’s total yards (380) and the league average of yards per point allowed (15.8) the Broncos should have scored just 24 points. A 105 yard INT for a TD certainly didn’t help the under bettors last week. After giving up 42 last week the Cowboys defense will play better this week and the running game will again be the focus offensively after just 40 yards rushing a week ago. Arizona was one of the best defensive teams in the league last year and will be up for the task here. Our math suggests just 42 points in this game. BET UNDER! |
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09-24-17 | Bengals +8 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +8 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET Packers are really banged up. Both starting OT’s are injured which makes a huge difference. RT Bulaga may play here but he is not at 100%. LT Bakhtiari is most likely out. The top back up at both tackles spot, Jason Spriggs, was just put on IR. Rodgers will also most likely be without WR Randall Cobb. Jordy Nelson looks like he’ll try to play but not 100% Defensively they will be without arguably their top player DL Daniels. Green Bay’s offense just hasn’t been able to get in synch (19 & 23 points) and won’t on Sunday with all of the injuries. They are also playing a Bengal defense that has been very good allowing just 33 points total in their two games. The Bengal offense has obviously struggled. However they do have weapons with WR AJ Green and RB Mixon and they are bound to play better. This Cincy team is backed into a corner in a must win spot with an 0-2 record. They don’t even have to win this game, just keep it to a TD or less. 6 of their last 7 losses dating back to last year have come by less than a TD. Take the points. |
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09-24-17 | Ravens v. Jaguars +3.5 | Top | 7-44 | Win | 100 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +3.5 over Baltimore - Sunday at 9:30 AM ET This game is being played in London and the Jags are very accustomed to this situation and setting. This will be the 5th straight year they’ve played in London. They have won each of the last two season’s here in London. Baltimore has never played here. That’s a big advantage to the Jags. Baltimore’s defense has looked great the first two weeks but let’s remember the offenses they have faced – Cincinnati and Cleveland. The Bengals haven’t scored a single TD yet this year while the Browns played most of last weeks’ game vs the Ravens without starting QB Kizer. It’s not an ideal situation for Baltimore either playing in this one off back to back big division games. Jacksonville is 1-1 and has played the much tougher opponents thus far beating Houston on the road and then losing at home to Tennessee last week. Despite playing a much tougher slate through 2 games, the Jags actually have the better overall numbers. They are averaging 4.9 YPP to 4.7 for Baltimore. Surprisingly Jacksonville is also better defensively allowing only 4.5 YPP to Baltimore’s 4.9. The Jaguars have played this Raven team very tough in recent years as well beating them two years ago and then losing 19-17 last year on a 54 yards Baltimore FG with just 1:00 minute remaining the game. We think this one stays tight throughout and the Birds are exposed as being an overrated 2-0 team. Jags get the win here. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 39.5 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 39.5 Points - LA Rams @ San Francisco, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Rams offense is obviously much improved over last season when they averaged only 14 PPG. This year they have scored 46 & 20 in their two match ups vs Indy & Washington. They are averaging over 6 yards per play on the season. They should be able to put up solid numbers tonight vs a SF defense that finished dead last in the NFL in scoring defense last year allowing 30 PPG. This year the Niners have allowed 35 points in their first two games which is respectable, but let’s not forget who they’ve played. Carolina scored 23 points on this defense in the opener and to be honest, the Panther offense looks pretty pedestrian this year. The came back on put up only 9 points last week vs Buffalo. SF also looked solid against a Seattle offense that is in disarray having scored only 21 total points this season. The Rams should fare better than both of those teams vs this defense. We get the Niner offense has looked bad against Carolina and Seattle. Again, let’s take the competition into account here. Seattle will absolutely have one of the top defenses in the NFL this year and Carolina has allowed 6 total points in 2 games. We’ll get a better gauge on SF’s offense tonight and we think they’ll look much better. The Rams defense shutdown a terrible Indy offense in week one with Scott Tolzien at QB. Last week the Skins lit them up pretty good with 27 points which is probably a better indicator of where the Ram defense is (probably middle of the pack type defense). This number is set too low as we look for both offenses to hit at least 20 tonight. Take the OVER. |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 42 | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 42 Points - Detroit @ NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET We expect a defensive battle in this one. The Giants have one of the top defenses in the NFL finishing 4th in the NFL last year allowing just 18.9 PPG. Last week vs a potent Dallas offense the allowed just 19 points despite facing 71 offensive plays. The NYG offense? That’s another story. They scored only 3 points and they were held to only 4.4 yards per play vs a Dallas defense that is definitely not elite. We’re not talking about a one game offensive problem for the G-Men as they have now been held to 20 points or fewer in 10 straight games dating back to last season. We don’t expect them to go off this week vs a Detroit defense that held Arizona to 16 offensive points on 4.6 yards per play last week. Detroit put up 35 points last week but that was rather deceiving. They had only 9 points at half and scored 2 TD’s in a 10 second span with just 4:00 minutes remaining in the game. One of those was a defensive TD. When thinking about Detroit’s offense many still view them as a high scoring team. That is simply not the case anymore as this team finished 22nd, 17th, and 22nd in scoring over the last 3 seasons. UNDER is the play on Monday night. |
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09-17-17 | Redskins +3 v. Rams | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Washington +3 over LA Rams, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This line was set knowing the overreaction would come in regards to the Rams 46-7 drubbing of the Colts last week. The Rams were favored by -3.5 in that game vs a team without their QB that might be the worst in the NFL. Now they are laying basically the same number to a Washington team that was in the playoffs last year? Value on Washington here. Let’s please not anoint the Rams some fantastic offense after week one. Remember this team was dead last in scoring in the NFL last year averaging just 14 PPG. While we expect QB Jared Goff to improve he’s not going to all of the sudden light up NFL defenses every week. Goff is now 1-7 as a starter. The Skins played pretty well defensively last week however on offense they struggled to say the least. Four turnovers didn’t help their cause. Keep in mind this Redskin offense was very good last year finishing 3rd in the NFL in total yardage at 403 YPG. We expect a much better performance this week with extra motivation off a shaky effort. The Rams are not used to being in the position of a favorite. In fact, they’ve been favored just 26 times since 2011 and they’ve LOST 16 of those games outright. Washington is the play here. |
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09-17-17 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee pick-em over Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Tennessee comes into this game with an 0-1 record while Jacksonville is 1-0. This is a huge game for a Tennessee team that has playoff aspirations and fell just short of the post-season last year. They cannot afford an 0-2 start. Despite their 26-16 loss last week to a very good Oakland team, the stats say the two teams played an even game. One first down and nine total yards separated the two teams. The time of possession was almost even as well. The Titans had opportunities to put more points on the board but settled for FG’s twice inside the Oakland 8 yard line and also missed a FG attempt. We expect this offense to bust out this week vs the Jags. The Jacksonville defense looked great last week but keep in mind that was against a terrible Houston offense with one of the weakest QB situations in the league. The Texans are also working with a poor offensive line. Now they face a Tennessee team with an up and coming QB in Marcus Mariota and one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Jags offense put up 29 points last week but was nothing special. They had only 280 total yards (4.7 YPP) and ran the ball nearly twice as much as they threw it (21 passes to 39 rushing attempts) in order to make sure mistake prone Blake Bortels did screw up the game for them. We anticipate them having to play from behind here which will take away that type of game plan. On top of that, the Jags didn’t get home from last week’s game until Tuesday afternoon due to Hurricane Irma. Their players had a distracting short week of practice having deal with the Hurricanes aftermath. Jacksonville is just 14-26-1 ATS the game following a SU win and Tennessee rolls here. |
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09-17-17 | Bills +7 v. Panthers | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo +7 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We think this is a bit of an underrated team vs an overrated team after week one. Just looking that final score might tell us that Buffalo struggled a bit with the Jets last week winning 21-12. That couldn’t be further from the truth. The Bills dominated the game outgaining the Jets by nearly 200 yards. The yards per play differential was huge with Buffalo averaging 7.3 and the Jets just 4.4. This game final score should have been much more lopsided. Carolina beat a terrible SF team 23-3. Offensively the Panthers looked bad. They had only 287 total yards in the game on 4.6 YPP. Cam Newton, who only played on series the entire pre-season due to a shoulder problem, wasn’t overly sharp vs a Niner defense that ranked dead last in the NFL a season ago in YPG and PPG allowed. The game turned out to be an easy win because the Niners offense is putrid. Now they face a Buffalo offense that has a mobile threat at QB and one of the top RB’s in the league. Also you can bet Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott will put a little extra emphasis on this one after coming over from Carolina last year (defensive coordinator @ Carolina). He also has a pretty good idea of how to slow down this Panther offense. Carolina plays host to AFC South rival New Orleans next week so the intensity factor probably favors Buffalo here. While Carolina is laying a full TD in this one, let’s not forget this team was 6-10 last year! Too many points here and we grab Buffalo. |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 38 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
We will PLAY OVER 38 in the Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals game Thursday evening. The number set on this game is 38, which by NFL standards is extremely low. In 2015 the average total points scored per game in the NFL was 44.8. Last year that number rose to 45.8 average PPG. Cincinnati totaled more than 38 points in 11 of 16 games last year, Houston 38+ in 10 of 17 and 4 of their last 5. They only scored 22 when they met last year but I'm banking on both offenses being much better this week after their horrible showings in Week #1. Combined these two teams had 9 turnovers in the first week of the season and several of those were in the Red Zone which would have led to more scoring. These two teams averaged less than 1.5 turnovers per game in 2016 so expect a return to normal this week. The oddsmakers are expecting the public to over-react to the Week #1 results but we won't be suckered into that train of thought. The predictive analytics on this game suggest a Total of 42 points. BET OVER! |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 22 m | Show |
ASA 10* PLAY ON LA Chargers +3.5 over Denver, Monday at 10:20 PM ET One thing we like looking for is a big edge at QB and that QB’s team is a dog. That’s what we have here. San Diego’s (just can’t get used to saying LA quite yet) Philip Rivers has had a fantastic NFL career and is one of the top signal callers in the NFL. Denver’s Trevor Siemian, not so much. While he played OK last year for Denver, he completed less than 60% of his passes. Also the big plays were lacking as Denver was 22nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at just 6.5. We give San Diego a solid edge offensively with Rivers, RB Melvin Gordon, and an improved offensive line. Defensively there is not as wide a gap as some might think. While Denver has a very good defense, keep in mind the Chargers D was 7th in the NFL in efficiency last year. DE’s Joey Bosa & Melvin Ingram provide one of the top pass rushing duo’s in the league. We also have a strong situational spot here as the Chargers are THE BEST road underdog since the start of the 2004 season with a ATS record of 42-18-3! Denver, on the other hand, has been a bad home favorite with a spread record of 25-44-2 ATS (36%) since 2006. We like the Bolts to pull the “upset” on Monday night. Not much of an upset in our opinion. |
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09-10-17 | Giants +4.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Dallas, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants match up very well with Dallas. Their defense, which was ranked 2nd in the NFL in efficiency last year, has shut down this high powered Cowboy offense. In fact, Dallas who had only 3 losses in the regular season last year, lost both games to the Giants. In those two games Dallas averaged just 13 PPG and 294 YPG. The Dallas offense carried this team last year while the defense was poor. If the offense is able to be slowed down, as the Giants did, this team is in trouble. We expect the Giant defense to be one of the best in the NFL again this year and we also look for their offense to be vastly improved. While Odell Beckham might have to sit this game due to an injury, remember NY added WR Brandon Marshall in the off-season which will really help. Eli is one of the top veteran QB’s in the NFL while we look for Dak Prescott to take a step back this year. It’s going to be almost impossible for Prescott to be as efficient as he was last season. The Boys are historically are one of the worst home favorites in the NFL. In fact since 2010 they ARE the worst home chalk in the NFL with a spread record of 12-30 (just 28%). On the other hand, since 2006, the Giants have the 2nd best ATS road record in the entire NFL at 53-37-3. Only the Patriots are better. We like New York to win this game outright so we’ll grab the points! |
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09-10-17 | Panthers v. 49ers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
We will play UNDER 47.5 in the Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers game. Much has been made of the 49ers new head coach Kyle Shanahan and his offensive genius being brought in from Atlanta, but last time we checked he didn't bring Matt Ryan, Julio Jones or Devonte Freeman with him. This talent shy 49ers roster was 23rd in offensive efficiency ratings last year and averaged just 19.3PPG. The Panthers were the league average in terms of scoring at 23.1PPG and barely above league average in Yards Per Points at 14.9 (league ave 15YPPT). It's not like both teams had a ton of opportunities to score either as the Panthers ranked 22nd in the league in Red Zone scoring attempts per game at 3.1 while the Niners were 28th at 2.8. We also like the fact that both teams want to run the football (Atlanta was 12th in rush attempts last year with Shanahan as OC). The Panthers have a new featured back in rookie McCaffrey while the 49ers best offensive weapon a year ago was RB Hyde. Last season the Panthers ranked 7th in rushing attempts per game while San Fran was 6th. More running, less passing means a much shorter game, and again, this number is currently HIGHER than last year's scoring average per game. Last year's contest between these two was high scoring but don't expect similar results here. |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears +7 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +7 over Atlanta, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We expect Atlanta to take a step back this year. Their offensive numbers (34 PPG) is bound to take a step back. The previous 3 years before last season this offense average 22, 23, and 21 PPG. They also lost their offensive coordinator Shanahan which will be a factor. The Falcon defense was not good last year ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency. It was a huge problem because they scored so many points. This year we see their defense costing them many more games. This is not a one year situation as this defense was 26th last year, 22nd in 2015, and 32nd in 2014 (defensive efficiency). They will be bad again this year. We’re hearing Chicago is very excited about their defense. They had some key injuries on that side of the ball last year which hurt their production. QB Mike Glennon, while not great, will be a much better option than turnover prone Jay Cutler. It may be tough Atlanta to rebound after blowing their huge lead in the Super Bowl last season. In fact, teams that lose the Super Bowl are 2-12 ATS in their opener the following year. If that opener is on the road, those numbers drop to 2-15 ATS. We think Chicago is a bit undervalued and Atlanta is definitely overvalued. The Bears will give them a run here and have a great chance to pull the upset. Take the points. |
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09-10-17 | Steelers -8.5 v. Browns | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -8.5 over Cleveland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We hate putting ourselves on the side of the public, with a road favorite but this is one of those rare occasions we'll have to bite. Last year we made this same wager and won with the Steelers (24-9) laying 8-points in Cleveland. The Steelers will once again have a potent offense with the 3-headed monster of QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell and WR Brown and could improve upon their 7th overall offensive efficiency rankings from 2016. Pittsburgh had an average point differential of +3.8PPG last season which was the 5th best number in the NFL. Defensively the Steelers weren't the Steel Curtain of the 70's but they were still solid with the 11th best overall defensive efficiency ranking. Pittsburgh allowed 16 or less points in 7 of their sixteen regular season games a year ago. The Browns will be starting a rookie quarterback in DeShone Kizer who's in for a long day against a Steelers D that was 9th in the NFL in sack % a year ago. Cleveland was bad on both sides of the football last year and don't look to be any better. In terms of OEFF and DEFF the Browns were 30th and 29th respectively in both categories and they had the worst overall point differential in the league at minus -11.8PPG. At home the Browns lost by an average of -11.5PPG. Pittsburgh has dominated this series with a 30-4 SU record the last 34 meetings and Roethlisberger is 20-2 SU lifetime. Cleveland is a horrendous 10-44 SU their last 54 versus AFC North. We'll lay the big number here. |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +9.5 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
PLAY ON: KC CHIEFS (+9.5) over New England, Thur 8:30PM ET - We will grab the points with Kansas City over New England on Thursday night. The line on this game opened around -7 and has quickly risen to minus 9 and even some minus 10 for New England at some Sports books. We like the value with a Chiefs team that finished last season at 12-5 and are coming off an upset home playoff loss to the Steelers. KC had a +4.5 average point differential last season overall and was just one of eight teams in the NFL to have a positive road differential. 4 of their five losses last season came by a combined 13-points and they won 6 straight road contests in the back half of their campaign in 2016-17. We totally understand the public money flowing in on New England as they are off last season's dramatic Super Bowl win, and let's face it, they are the Patriots. New England had a +12.3 average point differential last year but a lot of that had to do with who they played. The Jets and Bills twice, Rams, Browns, 49ers, Bengals, Cardinals and Ravens...NONE of which had a winning record. In fact, those teams had a combined record of 40-86-2 or 32% winning percentage. Yes, New England has a very strong home ATS record but the Chiefs are no slouch with a 12-6 ATS mark their last 18 away from home. Based on last season's offensive and defensive efficiency ratings this game will be closer than the number indicates! |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 59.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -115 | 267 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 59.5 Points - Atlanta vs New England, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET Looking at this total logically and comparing it to last week’s totals, this number is simply too high. It’s not surprising as most like to bet OVER in the Super Bowl and both teams were in high scoring Championship games so the oddsmakers had to set this high. Atlanta’s NFC Championship game with Green Bay closed at 60.5 which is basically a point or two higher than this one. That’s despite the fact that Green Bay’s defense was among the worst in the NFL and had a number of key injuries weakening their entire unit. Now the Birds face one of the better defense in the NFL and the total is nearly the same? How about the New England vs Pitt total in the AFC Champoinship game. That was set at 50 vs a Steeler offense that was among the best in the NFL with 3 of the top offensive players in the NFL at the skill positions (Roethlisberger, Brown, and Bell). Yet this total is set a full 9 points higher than that one? Again too high. The Falcons defense has gotten much better. After allowing 27.6 PPG and 382 YPG over the first 12 games they’ve dropped those numbers to just 19 PPG on 339 YPG over their last 6. The Pats led the NFL in scoring defense by a full 3 points over Seattle giving up just 15.6 PPG. The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta. We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game. Don’t be surprised if New England tries to shorten this game with their running attack. This is the highest total in Super Bowl history and only 8 of the 50 Super Bowls have gotten into the 60’s. We think the value is with the UNDER. |
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02-05-17 | Patriots -3 v. Falcons | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 266 h 29 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Atlanta, Sunday Feb 5th at 6:30 PM ET The Patriots are in their element here. They’ve already been here 6 times in the Belichick/Brady Era and won 4 of those. You can bet Brady is ultra-focused and motivated here as a win would cement him as the greatest of all time with 5 Super Bowl Rings – would be the most by a QB in NFL history. He also has a bit of an agenda here as he’s still extremely angry with commissioner Roger Goodell for suspending him for 4 games this season because of the deflate gate stuff. Goodell decided to skip the game in New England last week and go to Atlanta and you can bet that didn’t go unnoticed by Brady and the Pats. The Atlanta players have no experience with this situation. This is their first Super Bowl appearance since 1999 and the distractions and craziness leading up to the game is all new to them. That gives Belichick and company a huge advantage in our opinion. This will be the 7th time the NFL’s top scoring defense (New England) faces the top scoring offense (Atlanta) in the Super Bowl. The team with the top scoring defense has won all but one of those games. Belichick will have two weeks to get his defense ready for Atlanta’s offense which is a huge bonus in our opinion. He won’t let the Falcons go up and down the field as they did last week vs a porous and injury riddled Packer defense that rated as one of the worst in the NFL. The top 10 scoring offenses that Belichick faced this year were held to an average of 5 PPG below their season average and we’d expect the same here with Atlanta. We’d be shocked in the Falcons roll up 30+ points in this game. This Patriot defense has allowed 30+ points only once this entire season and they’ve held 13 of their 18 opponents this year to under 20 points. We wouldn’t be surprised at all if Belichick slows this game down and uses his running game to eat clock keeping Atlanta’s offense on the sidelines. The Pats are good enough to win that type of game or if it turns into a shootout, this offense CAN keep up with Atlanta. While the Falcons defense has improved late in the season, they have also allowed 20 or more points in 13 of their 18 games this season. Brady should be able to pick apart one of the youngest defenses in the NFL. Let’s not forget the Pats have lost a grand total of ONE game with Brady in the line up (vs Seattle). Atlanta had losses to TB, San Diego, Philly, and Seattle, three of those being non-playoff teams. New England is simply the better team and their experience in this situation is a HUGE factor. Lay the field goal with the PATRIOTS. |
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01-22-17 | Steelers v. Patriots -6 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY 10* New England -6 over Pittsburgh, Sunday at 7:40 PM ET It’s hard to ignore New England’s home field advantage. They have won almost 90% of their games at home over the last 4 seasons (33-4 SU) but even more impressive they are 26-9-2 ATS mark (74%). Pittsburgh, on the other hand, was not a great road team this year. They were just 5-3 away from home in the regular season despite playing only one playoff team on the road (a 30-15 loss @ Miami). The Steelers averaged 30 PPG at home with Roethlisberger under center but just 21 PPG on the road. Big Ben at home had a QB rating of 117 and on the road just 78. He’s thrown 20 TD’s and 5 picks at home and 9 TD’s and 9 interceptions on the road. He’s facing a New England defense that doesn’t get a lot of publicity but leads the NFL allowing only 15.6 PPG which is a full 3 points better than Seattle who finished 2nd. Because of Roethlisberger’s road struggles we give a nice edge at QB to Brady at home in this one. Also throw in the fact that Brady has owned the Steelers with a 7-2 lifetime record throwing 24 TD’s and just 3 interceptions. Brady’s 114 QB Rating vs Pittsburgh is the second highest of his career vs any opponent. The Pats also have an edge on the sidelines. Belichick vs Tomlin is a mismatch in our opinion. New England also had an extra day to rest and prepare having played on Saturday while Pitt played Sunday night @ KC. Steelers have also been fighting the flu this week with 15 players having to sit out practice on Wednesday & Thursday with the illness. New England played poorly last week at home vs Houston and we look for them to rebound with a very good performance on Sunday. We’ll lay it with the Patriots. |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 44.5 - Pittsburgh @ Kansas City, Sunday at 8:20PM ET This game has been moved from a 1:00 PM ET Sunday start to an 8:20 PM ET start to try and avoid the ice storm that will hit the area this weekend. They are hoping it will be pass through completely by the time the game starts. This total is set low with the weather in mind, however we think it is too low. Even if the field conditions aren’t great, that favors the offense in our opinion, especially with little wind which is expected the be the case on Sunday night. Pittsburgh is one of the top offenses in the NFL. They are 6th in the NFL averaging 372 YPG and they put up 25 PPG. Those numbers are skewed even lower than they should be in our opinion as they had to play a game with Roethlisberger on the bench with an injury and another with Big Ben not even close to 100%. The fact it this team scored 24 points or more in 12 of the 15 games that Big Ben was under center and one of the three where they didn’t he probably shouldn’t have been in the game due to an injury. The KC defense seems to get more props than they deserve. The Chief defense actually ranks 24th in total defense and isn’t particularly stout vs the run or the pass. The Steelers shredded this defense for 43 polnts on 436 yards in their match up earlier this season. Can KC score against Pitt? We believe they will. The Chief offense is better than most believe. They averaged 24 PPG facing a very tough “defensive” schedule (ranked 8th in the NFL). When KC faced off against a top 10 offense, you could tell by their game plan that Andy Reid knew he couldn’t hold the opponent in check and that he had to be more aggressive on offense and score to have a chance. Of their 8 games vs top 10 scoring offenses, the Chiefs offense eclipsed their 24 PPG average in 7 of those games. They were aggressive on offense. The only time they did not was vs this Pittsburgh team but that changes here. In those 8 games vs top 10 scoring offenses KC & their opponent averaged 50 points. Reid knows he has to again be aggressive here because they are not going to shut down a team that scored 43 on them already this year. KC’s offense is playing better down the stretch than they have all season scoring at least 29 points in 4 of their final 6 games. Another key factor here is KC’s “non offensive” TD capability. They led the NFL in defensive/special teams TD’s scoring a whopping 8 on the year. We’ve almost come to expect one each game from them and if they get one here, this definitely goes OVER. Even if they don’t, the two offenses will put points on the board and OVER is the play. |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 51.5 - Green Bay @ Dallas, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET - ASA's NFL PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR These are two of the top offenses in the NFL and we don’t see either defense slowing down the opposing offense. Green Bay ranks 3rd in the NFL in scoring offense and 4th in the NFL in offensive efficiency. Dallas ranks 5th in scoring offense and 3rd in offensive efficiency. With these two offenses facing middle to lower of the pack defenses we don’t think either team scores less than 24 points in this one and that’s worst case scenario. That would be 48 total points as a worst case in our opinion (but obviously it couldn’t end in a 24-24 tie) and that’s just 4.5 points from where this total sits. Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in 5 consecutive games while Dallas hit 30 points or more 6 times this year, including vs Green Bay in their first meeting. Not only has GB hit 30 on a consistent basis, they did so against very good defense scoring 38 vs NY Giants, Minnesota, AND Seattle down the stretch. Jordy Nelson is out for the Packers but this team is definitely equipped to keep rolling without him. Randall Cobb is back and full strength and Devante Adams has emerged as one of the better WR’s in the league. Also TE Jared Cook is finally healthy and he gives Rodgers another downfield threat. Nelson went out early in last week’s game vs NYG and Green Bay was still able to put up 38 points on one of the top defenses in the NFL. Both of these offenses are capable of scoring 30 or more in this game. Both of these defenses, as we stated, are middle to lower of the pack with Dallas ranking 14th in total defense and Green Bay ranking 22nd. The Packer defense has done a better job of keeping teams out of the endzone during their 7 game winning streak but a closer look reveals they have not played ONE top 10 offense (efficiency wise) over that span. They were extremely fortunate last week as the Giants (a bad offense) put up 200 yards in the first half but blew numerous scoring chances and had only 6 points. The last top 10 offense GB played was Washington who put up 42 on them. In fact if you break down the full season, Green Bay played four games vs teams that ended the season with a top 10 offense (efficiency). Those games were vs Dallas, Atlanta, Tennessee, and Washington. In those games GB allowed 30, 33, 47, and 42 points respectively. Now let’s do the same with the Dallas defense. They were in four games as well vs top 10 offenses vs Green Bay, Washington (twice), and Pittsburgh. In those games they allowed 16, 23, 26, and 30 points respectively. That 16 vs GB the first time around was an aberration in our mind. First of all the Packers were struggling mightily at that time and they still put up 374 yards (Dallas had 424 yards) which would normally equate to 28 points based on Green Bay’s yards per point numbers on the year. These two both struggle to slow down opposing QB’s which plays right into a high scoring game. Rodgers is red hot and he’s facing a Dallas defense that has allowed opposing QB’s to complete 67% of their passes which is the 2nd WORST in the NFL ahead of only Detroit. What did Rodgers and Green Bay do against Detroit? They topped 30 points both times. Green Bay’s defensive backfield has been decimated by injuries. They have guys starting that would normally not have even seen the field this year. The Packer defense is allowing opposing QB’s to hit on 64% of their attempts which is 21st in the league. With their very good running game (#1 in the NFL) who rushed for nearly 200 yards on GB in the first game, that will open up easy passes for Prescott who completed 67% for 250 yards and 3 TD’s in the first meeting. Lastly, when these two teams were supposed to be in high scoring games this year, they were. Dallas had 2 totals set in the 50’s this year and both games went OVER the number. Green Bay had 3 totals set in the 50’s and all three of those games went OVER as well. We envision the offenses completely controlling this game. It will be a back and forth type game with a “whoever has the ball last will win” type scenario. This total is set high but it’s there for a reason. The conditions for scoring will be perfect in Jerry World and this one gets into the 60’s and goes well OVER this number. |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers OVER 45.5 | Top | 12-30 | Loss | -102 | 46 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points - Miami @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:05 PM ET The weather will be very cold in this one but the winds shouldn’t be much of a factor. The Steelers should be rested and ready to go offensively as their 3 top weapons on that side of the ball (Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown) all sat out last week at home vs Cleveland. With those 3 in the line up, Pitt remains one of the top offensive teams in the NFL. In fact, when Roethlisberger started at QB, the Black & Gold scored 24, 43, 31, 30, 24, and 31 points at home for an average of 31 PPG. Some of those impressive outputs were against top defenses as well (31 vs Baltimore, 43 vs KC, and 24 vs NY Giants). Speaking of defenses, Miami’s isn’t very good ranking 29th in the NFL in total defense, 30th vs the rush, and allow 24 PPG. Not only are they not very good, they look like they are wearing down a bit. Miami’s defense has been on field for 153 plays the last 2 weeks, allowed 64 points and 985 yards! Pitt will also be on a mission offensively after one of their worst performances of the season in a 30-15 loss @ Miami back in early October. Roethlisberger was injured during that game and then had to sit out the following game vs New England. Pitt will score here. Miami’s offense didn’t look very good last week vs New England, but the fact is QB Moore has looked very good in his 3 starts. He led the Fins to 34 points in each of his first two starts and he’s thrown for 640 and 8 TD’s in his 3 games under center. Most don’t view Miami as a solid offensive team but the fact is they are. They average 23 PPG and are 7th in the NFL putting up 5.8 YPP (same as Pittsburgh). The Steeler defense is nothing special. They’ve allowed 20 or more points in 8 of their last 11 games and they only teams that were held under that mark were terrible offenses (Cleveland, NY Jets, and Indy with Luck out). Miami put up 30 and nearly 500 yards in the first meeting and while we don’t expect that here, we definitely think the Fins reach the 20’s which will be enough to push this OVER. |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks OVER 43.5 | Top | 6-26 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points - Detroit @ Seattle, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET Weather shouldn’t be an issue here with light winds and temps in the mid to upper 30’s. Detroit’s defense went through a stretch where they were playing solid football allowing 20 points or fewer in 8 consecutive games. That run now seems to be history as this defense could be wearing out a bit. Over their last 2 games vs Dallas & Green Bay they’ve been shredded for 73 points and nearly 900 total yards. They’ve also managed only 2 sacks total over the last 2 games which means they will probably have all kinds of trouble getting to one of the most mobile QB’s in the NFL this weekend in Russell Wilson. The Seattle defense simply isn’t what it used to be. They’ve picked up a few key injuries late in the season including safety Earl Thomas. This defense has allowed 38, 34, and 23 points in three of their last four games (all with Thomas out of the line up). The only team they shut down during that stretch was the Rams with rookie Jared Goff at QB. We think Detroit’s passing game, with QB Stafford having his best season of his career, can put some points on the board. Seattle’s offense will do the same. While the Seahawks struggled at times to score on the road, that wasn’t the case at home. After the opening game stinker at home vs Miami, this Seattle team rattled off 37, 26, 31, 26, 40, 24, and 31 points in their last 7 home tilts. That’s an average of 31 PPG and many of those teams had much better overall defenses that Detroit. The Lions defense, despite their nice run we spoke of above, has allowed opponents to average 6 YPP which ranks them 29th in the NFL. Seattle will score here and Detroit will have to keep up. With the Seahawk defense not as staunch as it once was, we think Detroit will do just that. This is a fairly low total and we grab the OVER. |
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01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 42.5, Cleveland @ Pittsburgh, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC NORTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR The Steelers will sit their 3 top offensive weapons in this game with QB Roethlisberger, RB Bell, and WR Brown all resting. Pitt won the AFC North by beating Baltimore last week and they are locked into the #3 playoff spot in the AFC. We look for the Steelers to be ultra conservative on offense. They have nothing to play for and while they want to win this game, they shouldn’t need to do much offensively to accomplish that. Landry Jones has started one game this season and the Steelers scored 16 in that game. Jones has been the Pitt starter three times in his career and they have averaged 18 PPG in those games and that was with Bell & Brown in the line up. Look for Pitt to grind this one out by running the ball a lot and letting their defense control the Browns. Cleveland is off their first win of the season beating San Diego 20-17. That was the first time the Browns offense reached 20 points since way back on October 30th. They had gone 6 straight games scoring 13 points or fewer entering last week. Even with their 20 point “outburst” last week, they still only put up 251 total yards in that game. The Browns scored just 9 points in their first game vs Pittsburgh on just 209 total yards. Cleveland ranks 31st in scoring and 31st in total offense and we don’t expect their offense to magically come alive here no matter who is at QB (Robert Griffin III or Cody Kessler). This match up has gone UNDER the total in 7 of the last 8 meetings and Cleveland has been held to 14 points or less in 17 of the last 22 meetings with Pittsburgh. The only chance this has of going OVER the total is if Pitt goes off on offense. With their top weapons out and what is expected to be a conservative game plan, we just don’t see that happening. Take the UNDER in this AFC North battle. |
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12-26-16 | Lions v. Cowboys UNDER 46 | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points - Detroit @ Dallas, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Lions defense has really stepped it up late in the season holding 8 straight opponents to 20 points or less. Their offense hasn’t done much during that stretch either as they have averaged just 18 PPG over their last 8 games. The Lions simply are not the potent offense we saw a few years ago as they average only 335 YPG which ranks them 23rd in the NFL. Dallas comes into this game having already clinched the AFC East AND home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They do not plan on resting their starters but we do expect a heavy dose of “conservative” football on offense. The Boys will be fine with running the ball as much as possible and getting out of this one with no injuries. Dallas leads the league in rushing attempts at 32 per game and rushing percentage with 50% of their play calls being running plays. That eats clock which is conducive to the UNDER. The Cowboys shouldn’t run wild on Detroit either as the Lions rank 12th in the NFL allowing just 98 YPG on the ground. The Dallas defense has improved drastically throughout the season and they have allowed only 4 opponents to top 20 points this season. These two have been UNDER teams all season long combining for a 19-9 UNDER record. With this line rising to 46 at some spots we go against the move and take the value with the UNDER tonight. |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 10-33 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +3 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET These two teams just met a few weeks ago with KC getting a tight 30-27 win. Denver is ready for revenge after outgaining the Chiefs 464 on 6.4 YPP to 273 on 3.9 YPP in that game but still coming up short. KC didn’t score an offensive point in that game until there was just 30 seconds remaining in the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs had 9 points at that point in the game coming on a safety and an 86 yard punt return. KC’s “lucky” 10-4 mark caught up with them last week as they were outgained by Tennessee and actually lost for once. This team has now been outgained in 6 of their last 7 games yet they still were able to muster a 5-2 record during that stretch. No defensive or special teams TD’s last week from KC and they weren’t able to win despite being +2 in the turnover ratio. We rate these two offenses nearly dead even. Denver has the superior defense by nearly a full yard per play. If the Broncs can limit turnovers and prevent KC from scoring defensive/special teams points, we have no doubt they’ll win this game. The dog has covered 12 of the last 17 in this series and the road team has won 5 of the last 6 outright. The Chiefs aren’t a team to be laying points with at this point. They’ve picked up 10 wins despite being outgained on the season and historically this team is a terrible 13-30 ATS as a home chalk. On top of that, the road team in KC games is 43-13 ATS over the last 56 games. Denver is in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl last year. This is an absolute 100% must win for them. We think they step up and play very well in this one and even if they lose, we look for it to go to the wire. Taking the points is definitely the way to go in this one. |
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12-24-16 | Bengals v. Texans -118 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -118 on the Money Line over Cincinnati, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET Last week Houston looked as if they struggled to beat Jacksonville here at home winning by a final score of 21-20. While they did make it close on the scoreboard, the Texans absolutely dominated that stats outgaining the Jags by 237 yards. They were also +13 first downs and +13:00 minutes in time of possession. Houston head coach Bill O’Brien made the QB change from Osweiler, who has been terrible this year, to Tom Savage late in the 2nd quarter. Savage was under center for 8 offensive possessions and the Texans scored points on 5 of those drives. Savage will start here and we think that is a good thing for this offense. We expect the Bengals to be disinterested here. They faced their biggest rival, the Steelers last week, and led for much of the game before falling 24-20 getting outgained by 160 yards. Cincy is 2-5 on the road this year and their offense has not topped 23 points in any of those games. It looks like their top offensive weapon, A.J. Green may play but top defender Burfict will most likely sit. The Bengals close out the season hosting another AFC North rival Baltimore next week which makes this a very tough spot here for a team that is used to being the playoffs but will not make it this year. It Xmas eve and you can guess most of the players on the Bengal team would rather be somewhere else with nothing really to play for. They are 0-7-1 ATS vs a team with a winning record while Houston is 6-1 SU at home this season. The Texans are tied for first place in the AFC South fighting for their playoff lives. The Texans should roll here. |
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12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET The Eagles have obviously cooled of big time after their 3-0 start as they now sit with a record of 5-9. However this team continues to play hard and many of their losses have gone to the wire. Since their 3-0 start they have lost @ Dallas in OT, lost @ Detroit by 1, lost @ Washington by 7, lost at home to Washington by 5, and lost @ Baltimore last week by 1. Their other tight setback during that stretch was @ NY Giants where they lost by 5. A closer look reveals that the Eagles really outplayed the Giants by a fair amount in that game in New York. Philly had more first downs, a time of possession edge, and outgained NY 443 to 302 in that game. The Birds had plenty of opportunities on offense and were shutout on downs 3 times inside the New York 25-yard line. The Giants are among the worst 10-4 teams in recent memory in our opinion. This is a team that gets outgained by nearly 30 YPG and their point differential is just +22 which is good for 13th in the league and only 5 points better than Philly who comes in at +17. The Giants have been at home for 5 of their last 7 games but are just 3-3 away from home. Their road wins have come against Cleveland (worst team in the NFL), LA Rams (one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL) and 20-19 @ Dallas in the first game of the year when Prescott was making his first ever start. The line value is definitely with Philly here as NYG was favored by 3 at home in November in this match up and now they are favored by the same on the road. The Eagles will bring their best here on National TV on Thursday night in a game vs a division rival. We like Philadelphia to win this game outright. |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
Tampa Bay +7 over Dallas - The Cowboys have come back down to earth going 0-3 ATS the last three games after covering 9 straight before that. The Cowboy offense and QB Dak Prescott hasn’t been nearly as potent as of late as they were earlier in the season. The last two weeks the Boys have scored just 17 & 7 points not reaching 270 total yards in either game. They were just 2 of 24 on 3rd down in those two games vs Minnesota & NYG. QB Dak Prescott looks like he has “hit a wall” throwing for less than 200 yards in each of his last 3 games with just 3 TD’s and 2 interceptions in those games. Don’t look for the Dallas offense to get healthy this week as they play a red hot Tampa defense that has given up an average of only 11 PPG over their last 5 contest. They have allowed only 6 TD’s over their last 5 games and held both Drew Brees and Russell Wilson without a TD pass during this winning streak. While the Cowboys have struggled on third down, that plays right into the strength of the Bucs defense that ranks #2 in the NFL in 3rd down defense. Tampa is 5-0 both SU & ATS their last five and that includes beating two teams currently in 1st place in their divisions (KC & Seattle). This is a big game for TB as they are tied with Atlanta for 1st place in the NFC South while the Cowboys who have already clinched a playoff spot and have a nice cushion in the NFC East. We think Tampa has a great shot to win this one and getting a full TD gives us some leeway. |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay +3 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET This is just a HUGE game for Green Bay. They currently sit a full 2 games behind Detroit in the NFC North and with the assumption that the Lions will beat Chicago at home this week, the Packers have to win this or they drop 3 games behind with only 3 remaining. Seattle, on the other hand, has a full 3 game lead in the NFC West and with games vs the Rams and Niners still on the slate, they’ve pretty much already locked up the division. The last time GB was a home dog with Rodgers starting at QB was way back in 2009. They are 15-1 SU their last 16 home games in December dating back to 2008. The Packer offense is clicking and even when they went on their 4 game losing streak, it was mainly because of their defense that allowed 33, 31, 47, and 42 points during that terrible stretch. The defense has turned the corner allowing just 13 points each of the last two weeks. They now face a Seattle offense that is averaging only 15 PPG on the road this year. They have been held to 3, 5, and 6 points in three of those 6 games and the Hawks are just 2-3-1 on the road this season and in their one tie they were outgained by nearly 200 yards @ Arizona. They could easily be 2-4 away from home. Safety Earl Thomas was injured last week and won’t play again this year for Seattle. A desperate Green Bay team gets the win at home. |
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12-11-16 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 43.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 38 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5 Points - Chicago @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Chicago is going to really struggle putting points on the board in this game. They are near the bottom of the NFL in scoring averaging 17 PPG and many of their key offensive performers are out. Third string QB Barkley makes his 3rd consecutive start and he is completing barely over 50% of his passes on the year. His top WR Alshon Jeffrey is out due to a suspension. On top of that, much of the Chicago starting offensive line is out as well. Detroit’s overall defensive stats for the season are not impressive but this unit is very good “right now”. Discard the yearly stats and look at the “what have you done for me lately” scenario. They have allowed 20 points or less in 6 straight games. That includes holding one of the top offenses in the NFL, New Orleans, to only 13 points on the road last week. That’s a New Orleans’ offense that was averaging 34 PPG at home before last weekend. This Detroit defense shouldn’t have much trouble shutting Chicago down on Sunday. On offense, many view the Lions as a high flying attack, which they used to be, but they are not that this season. They are averaging just 22 PPG and rank 21st in the NFL in total offense putting up just 337 YPG. Lost in their terrible season is the fact the Chicago defense has been very good. They rank 7th in the NFL in total defense allowing 326 YPG and YPP defense. These two met earlier this year and battled to a 17-14 final with Chicago winning. These two have combined to play 7 division games this season (vs NFC North) and all but one of those games have totaled 38 or fewer points. Take the UNDER here. |
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12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks UNDER 44 | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
#375/376 – Under 44.5 – Carolina @ Seattle, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET – Seattle’s offensive performance last week was an epic fail to say the least. They scored just 5 points against a middle of the pack Tampa defense. They were held to under 250 total yards as their offensive line continues its poor showing. We have the Seattle OL rated as one of the worst in the NFL. They will have problems again this week against a very solid Carolina defensive line who is 3rd in the NFL with 32 sacks. Russell Wilson will be running for his life again this week after getting sacked 6 times last Sunday @ TB. The Panther defense has only allowed one of their last five opponents to top 20 points and that was last week vs a potent Oakland team. The Raiders scored 35 points, however one of those TD’s was a pick 6 AND Oakland only tallied 356 total yards on 5.2 YPP which are both well below their season averages. We don’t expect Carolina to do much against a Seattle defense that ranks #1 in scoring allowing just 17 PPG on the season. This defense has given up 18 points or fewer in 7 of their 11 games this season. Seattle’s defense tends to ramp it up late in the year as 12 of their last 14 December games have finished UNDER the number. Low scoring affair here as we side with the UNDER. |
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11-27-16 | Chiefs v. Broncos -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3.5 over Kansas City, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Broncos are the play here minus a short number at home. The Chiefs have won with smoke and mirrors all season long and might be the most overrated team in the league at 7-3. Kansas City has been outgained by 7 of their last nine opponents. Consider this, the Chiefs starting QB, Alex Smith is averaging just 6.88 yards per passing attempt which is BELOW Rams QB Case Keenum! The drastic difference between these two teams is defensively where the Broncos rank as one of the very best in the league and are now healthy on that side of the football. Conversely the Chiefs are in the bottom half of the NFL in most defensive categories. Denver is off a bye week (15-5 ATS off a bye last 20) and well rested leading up to this contest and have dominated this rivalry for the past several years. The Broncos have won 8 of the last ten meetings overall and covered 5 of the last seven. A recent comparison you can make on this game is this: KC went to (4-6) Carolina just two weeks ago and was +3.5 points which is the same number as today's game in Denver against a superior Broncos team. The Chiefs will be exposed today for exactly what they are which is an average team. Lay it! |
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11-20-16 | Eagles v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
#471/472 – Over 42.5, Philadelphia @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET We took Seattle OVER the total last week @ New England and cashed in and we’re coming right back with it again this week. As we mentioned last week, Seattle’s defense is starting to get a big worn down. They’ve faced 293 offensive plays now over the last 4 games or an average of 73 per game. After their game vs Buffalo two weeks ago a number of defensive players noted that they didn’t have much left in the tank. Then they traveled to the east coast last week and played in another high scoring game vs New England. The last 3 weeks Seattle games have totaled 45, 55, and 56 points. While the defense has tired during this stretch, the offense is playing very well. Russell Wilson is now finally healthy and it’s showed with Seattle scoring 31 points each of the last 2 games. Philly’s defense has been up and down this year. They played very well at home vs Atlanta last week but coming into that one they allowed 24 or more points in 4 of their previous 5 games. The Eagle offense has scored at least 20 points in every game this year and it they get to that, this game should definitely go OVER. This is a low number in this situation. The weather is calling for possible light rain but very light winds which is key. This one goes OVER this number. |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +6 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
#453 – Jacksonville +6.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Detroit is 5-4 but not nearly as good as their record in our opinion. They are getting outgained by an average of 30 YPG and their point differential is -1 despite their winning record. There are 17 teams in the NFL that have a better point differential that the Lions. This team is overvalued right now. While they should be favored over Jacksonville, laying 6.5 is too much. When Detroit wins, it’s close. Their 5 wins have come by margins of 1, 3, 3, 4, and 6 in OT. The Lions have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games and this team simply isn’t good enough on either side of the ball to beat teams handily. Jacksonville has a worse record, but their numbers are better than Detroit’s. The Jags average 343 YPG offensively to Detroit’s 337. On defense there is a bigger gap with Jax allowing only 327 YPG (8th in the NFL) on just 5 YPP (5th in the NFL) while the Lions allow 367 (23rd) on 6 YPP (25th). Jacksonville has had a number of close losses this year including by 4 to GB, 3 to Houston, 5 to KC, and 2 to Baltimore. We think they keep this one close and have a shot to win outright. Getting nearly a full TD is definitely worth grabbing Jacksonville in this game. |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati (pick-em) over NY Giants, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Giants have terrible rush attack. They’ve won three in a row but they haven’t been impressive in doing so. Despite winning their last 3 games, NY has been outgained by 210 combined yards in those games. Last week in a win vs Philly, they were outgained by 140 yards as the Eagles blew a number of opportunities and should have won the game. The Giants run game is THE WORST in the NFL averaging only 68 YPG on the ground and have rushed for only 38, 36, and 56 yards in their last 3 games. They are averaging 340 YPG and giving up 371 YPG (-31 YPG differential) which tells us that this team is worse than their 5-3 record. Cincy is off a bye so they are rested, prepared, and fairly healthy. The Bengals are 3-4-1 on the year but still in the thick of the AFC North race which is led by Baltimore at 5-4. They’ve played one of the league’s toughest schedules with their losses coming @ New England, @ Dallas, @ Pittsburgh, and at home vs Denver. QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a QB rating of 100+ in 4 of his last 5 games throwing 7 TD’s and 1 interception during that span. One of his key weapons, TE Eifert, is now back from injury and had over 100 yards receiving in their last game. Cincy has a MUCH more balanced attack with the 7th best rushing attack in the NFL. The Bengals have played a tougher schedule but still have better numbers than NY putting up 395 YPG offensively while allowing 378 (+17 YPG differential). Let’s also not forget that this is the same Cincinnati team that won the AFC North last year. The Bengals are the better team in our opinion and with them coming off a bye week this sets up nicely. |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks v. Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
ASA's 10* SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE YEAR ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 - Seattle @ New England, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Seattle’s defensive stats are very good, but this team (defense) is running out of gas. This will be their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks and over the last 3 games this defense has faced more on field minutes than any other team in the NFL at 244. You could see the fatigue on Monday night when Seattle faced Buffalo at home and gave up 25 points on over 400 total yards. The Bills had chances to put more points up on Monday. They scored 17 points on their first 3 drives but missed a FG, threw an interception inside the Seattle 30, and were stopped on downs inside the Seattle 10. After last week’s game Seattle LB KJ Wright stated after the Buffalo game that “Our bodies are on empty”, which is not a good sign now traveling across the country on a short week. Now facing a rested New England team who is off a bye we can expect a lot of points from the Pats. Since Brady came back into the line up, the Patriots have averaged 34 PPG. After a lull a few weeks ago, it looks like Seattle QB Wilson and the offense as a whole is playing better. They’ve put up 51 points in their last two games and they’ll have to score to keep up here. No conservative game plans in this game and we anticipate a high scoring game. Take the OVER. |
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11-07-16 | Bills v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43 Points - Buffalo @ Seattle, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Seahawk defense ranks #1 in the NFL in PPG allowed at just 15.6. The only two teams that have topped 20 points against this stop unit are New Orleans & Atlanta who rank #1 and #2 in the NFL in total offense. In their other 5 games, the Seattle defense is giving up just 12 PPG. The last 2 games combined (vs Arizona & New Orleans) they’ve allowed just 2 TD’s and one came on a short field (37 yard drive) after a turnover. Buffalo’s offense has averaged 26 PPG yet they are doing so on just 333 YPG which ranks them 25th in the NFL in total offense. Thus, their scoring numbers are a bit skewed. Because they don’t have a great passing QB, the Bills rely heavily on the run to set up the pass. Their run play percentage ranks 3rd in the NFL. Problem is, Seattle gives up just 87 YPG rushing on just 3.4 YPC. The Buffalo offense will struggle tonight. Seattle’s offense has problems of its own. Russell Wilson is banged up and you can tell he is not 100%. They’ve scored just ONE offensive TD in the last two games and that includes a game vs a terrible New Orleans defense that gave up almost 500 yards to a bad SF offense yesterday. These two offenses are in the bottom 3rd of the league in 3rd down conversion percentage which stops drives and leads to punts. That is very conducive to a low scoring game. We like the UNDER on Monday Night. |
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11-06-16 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +1 over Oakland, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Even though they are now at home, the travel schedule for the Raiders has to catch up with them and we think this is the spot. They’ve already played FIVE long travel/east coast games including games @ Jacksonville & @ Tampa the last 2 weeks. They stayed in Florida between those two games so they were gone for a full week and a half or so. Those long trips so far this season should result in weary legs in their first game back. Oakland is 5-0 on the road this year, however at home they are just 1-2 and their one win was by 3 points. We still feel their 6-2 record is a bit of a “farce” as they’ve outgained only ONE opponent all season long. Despite winning 6 of their 8 games, the Raiders point differential is just +12 which actually rates LAST in the AFC West and 14th overall in the NFL. Denver is also 6-2 but they’ve outgained every opponent with the exception of Atlanta & San Diego. The Broncos point differential is +58 on the season which is 2nd best in the AFC behind New England. We have a HUGE defensive edge here with Denver in this game which is huge especially when getting points. The Broncos is 3rd in the NFL in total defense allowing a full 110 fewer YPG than Oakland who ranks 31st in that category. Denver has dominated this series winning 8 of the last 9 with the Raiders only win coming by 3 points. We like Denver to win this game outright. |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 52.5 | Top | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 40 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFC TOTAL SMASH GAME OF THE WEEK ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 52.5 Points - New Orleans @ San Francisco, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET These two defenses are terrible. They rank last (SF) and 2nd to last (N.O.) in scoring defense allowing 30.7 & 31.3 PPG respectively. The Saints offense hasn’t had huge outputs the last two weeks (24 & 20 points) but that’s because they played two of the top defenses in the NFL (KC & Seattle). The Chiefs are 8th in the league in scoring defense and Seattle is 2nd. Before last week, the Saints had topped 30 points in 3 of their last 4 games and we’d have to expect them to do the same here vs a SF defense that has given up 33 or more in 5 of their last 6. The Niners offense has struggled but with 2 weeks off we think Chip Kelly will have some new wrinkles to get them moving against a Saint defense that has allowed 27 or more in 5 of their last 6 games. Another key factor here will be pace of play. We expect a large number of offensive plays in this one as SF is #1 in pace this year running a play every 23.95 seconds and New Orleans is 4th in pace averaging a play every 26.05 seconds. This one has all the makings of a high scoring game and we’ll take the OVER. |
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11-06-16 | Eagles +2.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
ASA's NFC EAST GAME OF THE WEEK ASA PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia +2.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re siding with the better team here getting points. This line insinuates that these two teams would be dead even (or very close to that) on a neutral field. We have Philly rated as the better team so the line value is with the Eagles in our opinion. The Eagles are just 4-3 but have the top point differential in the entire NFC and 2nd best in the NFL at +62. The Giants are also 4-3 but they are -8 in point differential. Last week, the Eagles led @ Dallas, whom many consider to be the top team in the NFC, for nearly the entire 2nd half including holding a 10 point lead in the 4th quarter. Dallas scored a TD late to push the game into OT where the Cowboys won 29-23. Expect Philly to bounce back with a big effort here after that tough loss. The Giants are 1-2 ATS this year as a home favorite and 2-1 SU with their wins coming by 3 over New Orleans and by 4 over Baltimore. New York is historically one of the worst home teams in the NFL with a 24-31-1 ATS record at home since October of 2009. This is simply a bad match up for the Giants. They can’t run the ball at all (dead last in the NFL at 70 YPG) and they are facing a Philly pass defense that ranks as the most efficient in the NFL (Football Outsiders). We look for a New York offense, that has already been held to 17 points or less four times this year, to struggle with this Eagle defense. Philadelphia has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and we’ll call for them to win again. |
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11-03-16 | Falcons -3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ATLANTA FALCONS (minus) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tonight we play on the Atlanta Falcons minus the points over the host Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Earlier this season the Falcons hosted the Bucs and lost 31-24 as a -2.5 point favorite. That was the first game of the season and considering how these two teams have played since then the oddsmakers have only adjusted the Falcons as 1.5 points better? Now we get the Falcons playing with same season revenge laying a short number against an inferior team. Atlanta has the #1 ranked offense in the NFL in terms of Total yards and they've accomplished that after facing Denver, Seattle and Green Bay who rank in the top 7 in the NFL in Total defense. Now the Dirty Birds face a Bucs defense that just gave up over 600 yards of offense to the Raiders last Sunday. Tampa Bay allows 5.9 yards per play which is 25th in the league and an average of 379 yards per game which is 26th worst. What makes those numbers even worse is the fact the Bucs have faced 3 of the six worst offenses in the league! Not to mention the Bucs defense will be tired here following a short week coming off a game where they were on the field for 83 plays (league average 64.3). Tampa doesn't have an offense capable of trading points with the Falcons either as they are in the bottom half of the league in Total O, 27th in yards per play and average 21.7PPG which is 19th in the NFL. Atlanta does not have a great history as a chalk but they are coming off 4 close games against good teams: Denver, Seattle, San Diego and Green Bay after beating three lesser teams by 7, 13 and 15 points. Tampa is 0-5 ATS their last five at home and have failed to cover the spread in those games by an average of 10PPG. Lay the points on the road with Atlanta. |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears UNDER 40 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40 Points - Minnesota @ Chicago, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Two division opponents who know each other very well lends to the UNDER here. Here we have two very solid defenses and two inept offenses for the most part. Minnesota ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and YPP defense. Surprisingly to most, Chicago’s defense has been solid this year ranking 13th in total defense and 10th in YPP defense. Offensively, these teams are among the worst in the NFL. Chicago ranks dead last in scoring putting up just 15.9 PPG. They have topped 17 points only once all season and that was against a bad Indy defense. Even in that game they only reached 23. The Minnesota offense ranks only ahead of San Francisco averaging less than 300 YPG of total offense. The Vikings average 21.5 PPG which is 20th in the NFL, however if their defense has a lot to do with that. In fact, if you subtract their 4 defensive/special teams TD’s this year they are averaging only 17.5 PPG. Because neither of these teams like the up tempo, fast paced game, they average very few offensive plays per game. Chicago averages only 59 plays per game (30th in the NFL) and Minnesota just 64 (18th in the NFL). A slower paced game with low numbers of offensive plays obviously normally leads to lower scoring games. These two have gone UNDER the number in 7 of their last 9 meetings and we see another low scoring affair tonight. Take the UNDER. |
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10-30-16 | Packers v. Falcons -3 | Top | 32-33 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
ASA's 10* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Atlanta -3 over Green Bay, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET With Green Bay’s injuries in the defensive backfield, this become a very bad match up for them. The Packers will be down their 3 top corners on Sunday which will make it awfully tough to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and company. The two CB’s who will be starting for the Packers on Sunday will be two guys who normally wouldn’t even see the field if the injuries hadn’t occurred. Atlanta’s offense has been fantastic this year. They lead the NFL in scoring (32.7 PPG), total offense (433 YPG), and yards per play offense (6.8). They are coming off consecutive losses so the Falcons will be playing with urgency here at home. They’ve played the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL to date already playing 4 road games against the likes of Seattle, Denver, and Oakland. We’re not sure the Green Bay offense can keep up in this one. They rank near the bottom of the NFL (21st in total offense) and they have very little running game with Lacy & Starks both injured. WR Ty Montgomery who has been filling in at RB at times was sick for much of the week as well. He should play but practiced little this week. We have a team in Atlanta that averages over 30 PPG against a tough schedule vs Green Bay, a team that has topped 30 only once all season and they have faced the 31st toughest schedule so far this year. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games and this simply isn’t the Green Bay team of old. Atlanta is the better team and at home here. We’ll lay the low number. |
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10-30-16 | Patriots -6 v. Bills | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
ASA's 10* AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -6 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET As we stated last week we thought Buffalo was a bit over rated and their recent solid play (heading into last week) was a product of their opponents. They had beaten this New England team who had a rookie QB starting, then topped the LA Rams who have very little offense, and then beat San Fran who is obviously just a bad team in general. Last week we jumped on Miami +2.5 at home over Buffalo and were rewarded with a nice win. What looked like a close game, really shouldn’t have been. The Fins dominated outgained Buffalo by nearly 200 yards a full 2 YPP. Now they have to face an angry New England team that has their 16-0 loss to Buffalo just a few weeks ago at the forefront. You can bet Brady & Company, even though he didn’t play in the first game, have been waiting patiently for this one. Belichick is a master in revenge games especially in division play where he is a near perfect 18-3 ATS his last 21 in that situation. Despite their earlier loss this season, the Pats have absolutely dominated Buffalo with a 30-3 SU record the last 33 meetings. Since Brady has returned, New England is 3-0 SU & ATS winning all 3 by double digits. Since he’s come back Brady has been lights out completing 75% of his passes for over 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s (no interceptions). The Bills offense was being carried by RB LeSean McCoy during their winning streak and with him being limited to just 8 carries last week, they gained only 267 total yards on just 4.7 YPP. McCoy is doubtful this week and even if he plays, he’ll be ineffective with a bad hamstring. With this line sitting under a TD, we really like New England in this spot. |
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10-27-16 | Jaguars v. Titans -3 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
We will play on the Tennessee Titans minus the points over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday evening. Jacksonville was expected to be an explosive offensive team this year considering the wealth of talent on that side of the football they have but it just hasn't been the case. The Jags are 29th in the league in offensive efficiency, 24th in scoring at 19.5PPG (down from 23.5 last year) and average just 324 total yards of 'O' per game which is 27th in the NFL and a full 24 less yards than a season ago. While the Jags have gotten worse offensively, the Titans have gotten better. The Titans are 14th in the league in yards per game, 3rd in rushing yards per game and average more points than they did a year ago. Defensively these two team are very similar with Jacksonville ranking 9th overall in Total 'D' and the Titans ranking 10th in that same category. The biggest advantage for the Titans we feel is the running game tonight. When you can control the football and convert on 3rd downs you're going to have a much better shot at winning the game. The Titans have DeMarco Murray who is 3rd in the league in total rushing yards and leads a Tennessee offense that runs for 143YPG at a 4.9 yard per carry average. Conversely the Jags are one of the worst rushing teams in the league averaging just 76.6YPG at 3.7 yards per attempt. Tennessee converts 46.24% of their 3rd down attempts which is 4th best in the NFL. Jacksonville is last in the league in converting 3rd downs at just 27.63%. The short week and travel will certainly hurt a Jags team that is just 5-27 SU their last 32 on the road. The home team has won 4 in a row in this series and backing the home team with the short number is the way to go here. |
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10-24-16 | Texans v. Broncos UNDER 40.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 40.5 Points - Houston @ Denver Two bottom eight offenses vs to top eight defenses lead us the under tonight. The Texans offense is rank dead last in the NFL in efficiency according to Football Outsiders. Denver isn’t much better ranked 23rd in the same category. Houston averages just 18 PPG which ranks them right near the bottom of the league. Last week they scored 26 in their overtime win vs Indy. Let’s not forget that the Colt defense is one of the worst in the NFL AND that Houston had just 9 points with under 3:00 minutes remaining in the game. They scored 2 TD’s late to send the game to OT and picked up the 26-23 win. A very deceiving final to say the least. They struggled to score against a bad Indy defense so how will they do tonight on the road against a top 5 defense in Denver? Probably not good. We don’t expect the Denver offense to do any better. They have scored just 16 & 13 points the last two weeks vs lower tier defenses (Atlanta & San Diego). However, the Bronco defense held those two high scoring teams to just 21 and 23 points respectively. With two below average QB’s at the helm tonight (Osweiler & Siemian), we don’t expect many explosive plays in the passing game. UNDER is the play tonight. |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +6.5 over Atlanta, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Falcons are obviously much improved this year but this is an absolute terrible situation for them. If there was ever a game they wouldn’t show up or take at least a little lightly this would be it. The Falcons have played a ridiculously tough schedule over the last 3 weeks. They beat Carolina (division rival) at home, then traveled to Denver to get a win, and finally they went back to the west coast last week and lost a tight one @ Seattle. On top of that, they host Green Bay next weekend. In hindsight, while impressive, the Falcons 3 game stretch isn’t quite what we thought. Their win over Carolina looked great but the Panthers now only have one win on the season. They beat Denver which was solid, but Denver has since lost to this San Diego team as well. The Chargers are much better than their 2-4 record. They’ve led in the 4th quarter of every game this year and their loss margins have been by 6 in OT, 4, 3, and 1 point. Add to that the fact that the Bolts beat Denver last Thursday so they’ve had a full 10 days to rest and get ready for this road game. On the other hand, Atlanta is now home but they’ve been on the road 4 of the previous 5 weeks so they have to be a bit leg weary. This game is a late 4:05 PM ET start which also benefits San Diego going west to east. The Chargers are 2-1 ATS as a road underdog this year and 20-9 ATS their last 29 in that situation. We’ll call for a tight game and wouldn’t at all be surprised if the Chargers win outright here. |
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10-23-16 | Bills v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami +3 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Fins are home for the 3rd straight week while Buffalo is playing their 3rd road game in the last 4 weeks. Miami finally got healthy on their offensive line last week and it showed with a 30-15 win over Pittsburgh. Beating one of the AFC favorites that handily was impressive and while QB Roethlisberger was injured, it was late in the game when Miami was in full control. The Dolphins put together an impressive offensive game with 474 total yards while holding the potent Pitt offense to just 297 yards. Most wouldn’t know it but Miami’s offense is putting up 6 YPP which is the 5th best mark in the NFL. Buffalo is 4-2 on the season but they’ve been outgained in 4 of those 6 games. They’ve been getting it done on the ground with LeSean McCoy rolling up 290 yards rushing and 3 TD’s the last 2 games. Problem is, McCoy is now injured with a bad hammy and may not play here. Even if he does, he’s not 100% and his explosiveness will be limited. That takes the biggest threat away from the Bills offense. Buffalo has won 4 straight but we are not yet overly impressed. They beat Arizona at home but were outgained and the Cards had a whopping 5 turnovers. Then they beat New England with the Pats playing a rookie QB. Then it was the “offenseless” Rams a game Buffalo was again outgained but benefitted from a pick 6. Last week at home vs San Fran who lost RB Hyde which was their top threat for an already poor offense. Now the Bills have a huge game with New England on deck and we think they are ripe for the picking. Miami wins this one. |
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10-17-16 | Jets +7 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -102 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY JETS (+) over Arizona Cardinals - Monday, 8:25PM ET - The value lies with the Jets on Monday night when they travel to Phoenix to take on the Cardinals and we'll grab the points. New York is off three straight losses and are in desperation mode at 1-4 SU on the year while the Cards got a little reprieve after a win over the 49ers last week. The Jets have faced the tougher schedule to date after facing: Steelers, Seahawks, Bills, Chiefs and Bengals who have a combined 17-11 record. Arizona has faced: 49ers, Rams, Bills, Bucs and Pats (without Brady @ home and loss) who are 15-14 on the year. The Cards will go back to starting QB Carson Palmer tonight but is that necessarily a good thing? Palmer has struggled throwing the football this year and currently sits 26th in the NFL among starting quarterbacks in QBR rating at 51.2. Palmer has thrown just 6 TD's to 5 INT' on the year. Yes, the Jets secondary has been torched this season but they've also faced 2 QB's that are top 7 in total passing yards (Dalton and Roethlisberger) and Russell Wilson who has a 97.2 QBR and is 12th in completion percentage. What the Jets do REALLY well defensively is stop the run. Arizona's RB David Johnson (5th in the league in rushing) will have a hard time finding room to run against the Jet's defensive front. Turnovers have killed the Jets this season but Arizona isn't much better at taking care of the football. The Jets average 2.6 giveaways per game but the Cards average 2.0. The Cardinals are just 4-9 ATS their last 13 at home when laying a TD or more. Grab the points with the Jets. |
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10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston -2.5 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET This line on this game is a steal with a way better Texans team at home against the Indianapolis Colts. The Texans are off a loss last Sunday (4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss) while the Colts are off a come from behind win. Indy trailed the Bears late last week before pulling out a win and were outgained by 126 total yards in that game. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL ranking 30th in the league in yards allowed per game at 410.6YPG. Houston on the other hand ranks 6th in total D allowing 110 less yards per game than the Colts do. Indianapolis allows 6.5 yards per play overall defensively which is 31st in the league while the Texans allow just 4.9YPPL which is 7th best in the NFL. The Titans have outgained 4 of their five opponents this season and their two losses have come to the Vikings and Patriots who are a combined 9-1. Houston’s foes this year have a combined record of 15-10 while the Colts have wins over the Chargers and Bears and their opponents on the season have a 10-17 overall record. Even without JJ Watt the Texans defense will get to Luck as the Colts O-line is again one of the worst in the NFL (allowing 4 sacks per game – last in the league). After facing a Vikings defense that is one of the best in the league the Texans find plenty of opportunities here. |
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10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers UNDER 44 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Tonight we play UNDER in the Broncos @ Chargers game. The Chargers are 8th in total offense this year averaging 373YPG and second in scoring at 30.4PPG. So why wouldn't we like 'over' in this contest with a potent offense like the Chargers? It's because San Diego's offensive numbers are really misleading as they've played the 3 worst defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed per game as Oakland, New Orleans and Indy all give up over 410YPG. Tonight the Chargers face a Denver 'D' that allows just 301YPG and 17.4PPG and it's going to be tough moving the ball here. The Broncos just faced a Falcons offense that is the best in the NFL and held them to 23 points so they should contain a Chargers 'O' here. Denver learned last week they must protect starting QB Trevor Siemian as rookie Paxton Lynch just isn't ready for the NFL yet. That means a heavy dose of the running game and a ball control offense in this game. The Broncos are 21st in the league in plays per game at 62.8 while the Chargers are 26th at 61.6. Less plays means less scoring opportunities and a lower scoring game. The UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last seven meetings overall in this series and 5 of the last six on this field. Our math model projects 42 or less points tonight. |
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10-10-16 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 45.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Tonight we play OVER in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers game. Can you name all the teams in the NFL that average more plays per game than these two teams? ZERO! TBay averages 71 plays per game while the Panthers average 70.5. More plays and faster paced offense clearly leads to more scoring opportunities. Both teams have several key injuries to their running backs but that won't change their offensive philosophies as they both prefer to throw the football. Tampa Bay is 1st in the NFL in passing attempts per game at 44.2 while the Panthers are 7th at 39.2. Obviously Panthers starting QB Cam Newton is out for this game but we like the value it gives us on the number. Backup QB Derek Anderson played offensive series against Atlanta and went 17 of 23 for 172 yards with 2 TD's and 2 INT's. Breaking down those series he led the Panthers on drives of 9 plays for 94 yards and a TD. 11 plays 75 yards and a TD. Threw a pick 6 (which helps over bettors) and threw another INT on his last series. With Anderson running the offense the Panthers averaged 7.4 yards per play which would be better than everyone in the NFL. The Bucs offense is averaging below 20PPG but they've faced three defenses that rank in the top half of the league in points allowed per game defensively. After allowing just 19.5PPG last season the Panthers defense is giving up a whopping 29.5PPG this year which is 5th worst in the NFL. Speaking of defense...or lack of defense, the Bucs are giving up 32PPG which is 2nd to last in the league, allow 5.5 yards per play (19th) and 1 point for every 11.1 yards gained by an opponent which is 31st in the NFL. Tampa Bay QB Winston has 23 INT's since the start of last season which is the 3rd most in that time (Bortles 24, Fitzpatrick 25) which could lead to a few short scoring opportunities for the Panthers. Last year in two meetings these same two teams combined for 48 and 60 total points and Bucs on 5-2 'over' streak while Panthers 'over' in 4 of last five at home. Bet here is OVER! |
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10-09-16 | Giants v. Packers UNDER 48.5 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 48.5 - NY Giants @ Green Bay, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET People continue to view Green Bay as a high scoring juggernaut on offense. The fact is, this is not nearly the same offense they put on the field 2 years ago when the put up 30 PPG. Last year they struggled mightily on offense scoring just 23 PPG a full TD down from the year before. This year while they are scoring 25 PPG, their offense is again struggling. They are averaging only 293 YPG which is 29th in the NFL ahead of only Minnesota, San Fran, and the LA Rams. On a yards per play basis, the Pack are putting up only 5.1 YPP which is 25th in the league. Even when the tallied 34 points in their most recent game vs Detroit, the Packers totaled only 325 yards. On the other side, the Giants offense is scoring just 18 PPG on the year (27th in the NFL) and has been held to 20 points or less in 3 of their 4 games. The only time they topped 20 points was a 27 point output against Washington who ranks 29th in the NFL in total defense. Three of their four games have come against poor defenses (New Orleans & Dallas along with Washington) and their scoring numbers are still poor. We think they’ll struggle against a decent Green Bay defense coming off a bye week. This is the highest total thus far on the season for Green Bay and the second highest for New York, only behind their game vs New Orleans (54 points) which ended 16-13. We like UNDER in this one. |
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10-09-16 | Titans +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +3.5 over Miami, Sunday 1:00 PM ET Both of these teams are just 1-3 but Tennessee is showing signs of being a much improved team while the Dolphins could easily be 0-4. The Titans have been outgained by 13 total yards on the season. Their running game is among the best in the NFL averaging 127 YPG (4th in the NFL) on 4.7 YPC (3rd in the NFL). Their offensive line is massive improved and ranks as one of the top 10 O-Lines in the NFL (Football Outsiders). That’s bad news for a Miami defense that ranks near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense allowing 130 YPG on the ground (29th in the NFL). The Titans have shown signs of life even in their losses. They had an undefeated Minnesota team down 10-0 at half and held the Vikings without an offensive TD but somehow lost. They outgained Oakland in a 17-10 loss. Last week they were tied with @ Houston 20-20 in the 2nd half in a close loss. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have been outgained by every team they’ve faced this season including their lone win in OT at home against a bad Cleveland team. Miami has been outgained by 188 yards on the season and this team should probably actually be winless. The Fins have been horrendous as a home favorite going just 13-43 ATS their last 56 in that situation. Also tough to lay points with a Miami team that has topped 20 points only 3 times in their last 14 games. We think Tennessee has a great shot to win this one outright. Take the points. |
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10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 46 Points - Philadelphia @ Detroit, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Philly defense has allowed a TOTAL of 27 points this season in 10 games! That includes holding an extremely potent Pittsburgh offense to just 3 points and 251 total yards in their most recent game. The Eagle defense has allowed just 2 offensive TD’s so far this season. They face a struggling Detroit offense that has scored a total of 4 offensive TD’s in their last 3 games. The Lions are “averaging” 23.8 PPG mostly due to the fact they put up 39 in their opening game against a bad Indy defense that ranks 30th allowing 31 PPG. Detroit’s last 3 games have come against defenses ranked 19th, 17th, and 14th yet they still only put up 4 offensive TD’s in those games. Now they face the #1 defense in the NFL. Philly’s offense has looked very good but they still have a rookie QB and we look for them to be conservative on the road. The Eagles are the slowest paced offense in the NFL averaging a snap every 31.5 seconds. New head coach Doug Peterson tries to “shorten” the game, not make mistakes, and let his defense win it. The Detroit defense gave up some points to Green Bay & Indy, however in their other two games they held Tennessee to 16 and Chicago to 17. This total is set at 46 which is basically the same total the oddsmakers set when Philly hosted Pitt in their most recent game. The Steelers offense is far superior to the Lions and we think this is set too high. Take the UNDER here. |
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10-06-16 | Cardinals -3 v. 49ers | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
PLAY ON: ARIZONA CARDINALS: This might be your last shot to get great value with the Cardinals who were picked by many experts (not ASA) to represent the NFC this year in the Super Bowl. It has obviously been a disappointing start to the season for the Cardinals (1-3) after going 13-3 in the regular season a year ago in winning the NFC West. So this week we get them as a small favorite on the road with the line being lower than normal because they will be without starting QB Carson Palmer. But is that necessarily a bad thing? After throwing 35 TD to just 11INT's a year ago, Palmer has not looked good so far this year with just 6 TD's to 5 INT's while completing just 58.5% of his passing attempts. Granted, QB Drew Stanton looked awful in his short relief appearance last week against the Rams but now he's gotten extra reps all week with an opportunity to prepare for the starting job. But we don't expect Stanton to be put in a position to carry the Cardinals this week, he'll just have to manage the game and hand the ball off to RB David Johnson. Johnson leads the NFL in all-purpose yards and is 7th in rushing yards (300yds) at 4.7 yards per carry. That is significant here as the Niners are 22nd worst in the NFL in yards per rush attempt allowing 4.3 yards per carry and LAST in the NFL in total rushing yards allowed per game at 140+. Another key factor in this matchup is the loss of LB NaVorro Bowman for the 49ers who has 236 tackles the past two seasons. Arizona is 7th in the NFL in total offense compared to San Fran's 30th overall rankings, are better defensively (8th total D versus SF #26th) and backed into a corner this early in the season. Let's not forget this Cards team was 7-1 SU last year on the road and are 12-2 ATS their last fourteen roadies against teams with a losing record at home. Arizona also has some impressive backing when coming off a spread loss and it all adds up to a win here even without their starting QB. Lay it! |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4.5 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4.5 over Minnesota, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Vikes sit at 3-0 on the season despite scoring only 3 offensive TD’s the entire season. While we understand their defense is very good, this team needs to start putting some offensive numbers up or they will start losing some games. We think their first loss comes tonight. The Giants have a big edge offensively. They are averaging 6.5 yards per play while the Vikes are averaging just 4.8 yards per play. New York is off a home loss vs Washington and this team has the best road spread record in the NFL since the start of the 2007 season at 44-30-2 ATS. The Giants will have some extra motivation tonight as well after getting whipped by Minny last year 49-17. The game wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the score would indicate. The Vikings outgained the Giants by just 5 yards in the game despite running 11 more offensive plays. Eli Manning threw 3 interceptions while Minny did not have a turnover. Due to the turnovers Minnesota scored on a pick 6 and had TD drives of 4 yards and 18 yards. The game snowballed out of control and NY just couldn’t get back into it. Let’s face it, Minnesota is 3-0 but they’ve been outgained by an average of 30 YPG this season. They average only 265 YPG on offense (last in the NFL) and with Adrian Peterson out along with starting LT Kalil, we don’t look for them to light up a Giant defense that ranks 11th in the NFL in total defense. The Giants are 2-1 but they have a +57 YPG differential on the season. They are far superior offensively, as we’ve stated, and while Minny’s defense is better, it’s not by a wide margin. We’ll call for the Giants to win a close game tonight. |
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10-02-16 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4 | Top | 14-43 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4 over KC, Sunday at 8:20 PM ET The Steelers will be in a foul mood here after getting embarrassed at Philly last week. The potent Pitt offense was only able to put up 3 points in that game. Expect a much better effort this week at home on Sunday Night. We are not sold on KC. They’re games have gone as follows…A come from WAY behind (down 24-3) overtime win at home against a middle of the pack San Diego team, a 7-point loss @ Houston, and a home win over the Jets last week helped by New York’s EIGHT, yes EIGHT turnovers. The struggling KC offense has scored only 22 points the last 2 weeks (subtracting defensive TD). They’ve scored a total of ONE offensive TD the last 2 games. We think it will be for them to keep up with the Steelers offense that will come out angry this week. Not only are the Steelers coming off a terrible effort last week, they also remember last year’s trip to KC where they lost 23-13 in QB Landry Jones first start of his career (Big Ben was injured). Pitt RB Le’veon Bell ran for 117 yards in that game and he is back from suspension this week. Steelers are 13-6 ATS at home when coming off an outright loss. We expect the Steeler to win this game at home and when they win at home, they usually control the game. Of Pittsburgh’s last 17 home wins, 15 have come by at least a TD. The Pitt offense rolls this week and the Chiefs can’t keep up. Lay it with the Steelers. |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets +1.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a terrible match up for Seattle in our opinion. First of all, you have an angry Jets team that was smoked last Sunday @ KC. The Chiefs won 24-3 but only scored 10 points on offense and were basically given the game by Jet QB Fitzpatrick who threw 6 interceptions. NY had a ridiculous 8 turnovers in the game. Expect a big bounce back at home this week. Seattle won a home game against a tired SF team that had played on the east coast a week earlier. QB Russell Wilson came into the game banged up and then injured his ankle. Even if he plays here he will not be at 100%. That’s a key in this game as we expect the Jets defensive line to control the line of scrimmage. Seattle’s offensive line is bad. They have 4 new starters from last year and they are already banged up on the line. With Wilson’s mobility compromised, this could be a long day for the Seattle offense. Similar to when they traveled to LA to face the Rams a few weeks ago, who also have a solid defensive line, and lost 9-3. If Wilson doesn’t play, which he may not, the Seahawks will go with rookie Trevon Boykin. Long travel to the east coast and an early start time don’t favor the Hawks here. This is a huge game for the Jets who are 1-2 on the season. Seattle has played the Dolphins, Rams, and Niners so far which is lower level NFL competition. They lost one of those games and struggled to get by Miami at home. New York has played Cincy, Buffalo, and KC, two of which were playoff teams last year. Anytime we get a potential mismatch in the trenches with an underdog, we have to take a long look. Take the Jets. |
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10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 47 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Cleveland @ Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We look for a shootout here. After a terrible offensive showing in week 1 vs Philly, the Browns offense has played well the last 2 weeks. In hindsight, we understand the 10 spot vs the Eagle defense as they have been dominant allowing only 17 points in 2 games since. Cleveland actually outgained Baltimore & Miami each of the last 2 weeks and scored 44 points combined putting up 817 yards on the process. We really like the way the Washington offense is playing as well. They’ve scored 23 & 29 points the last 2 weeks and they’ve actually had chances to put up quite a bit more. They’ve left quite a few points on the field. To give you an idea, the Skins have punted only 4 times in the last 2 games. So we have two offenses that are playing well vs two bad defenses. Both stop units are allowing over 400 YPG and they sit at or over 6 YPP allowed. Cleveland has allowed 29, 25, and 30 points. Washington has allowed 38, 27, and 27 points. This number is set too low. Take the OVER. |
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09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals OVER 46 | Top | 7-22 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Miami @ Cincinnati, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET Cincy has struggled to put points on the board this year but they have put up solid yardage. They have scored 16, 17, and 23 points, however against defenses not named Denver, the Bengals have averaged almost 400 YPG (397 to be exact). They are obviously moving the ball averaging over 6 YPP so the points will come in due time. That starts tonight vs a Miami defense that has looked shaky the last 2 weeks. The Fins have allowed 31 & 24 points each of the last 2 weeks vs teams with big inexperience at the QB position. Last week Cleveland rookie QB Cody Kessler put up 24 points and 244 yards passing in his first ever start. A week earlier, the Pats Jimmy Garoppolo put up 31 points and 233 yards passing in his 2nd start ever. Both teams eclipsed 400 yards of total offense on Miami’s defense. We look for Cincy to do the same. Offensively, Miami has actually looked very good since their tough outing to start the season @ Seattle. In the last 2 games they’ve topped 400 yards in each and scored 24 & 30 points. The Bengal defense has been a disappointment this year allowed 22 or more points in all 3 games. Both offenses are ranked in the top 5 in the NFL in pace averaging one snap every 25 seconds. This line has risen from 44 to 46.5 and we agree with the move. It hasn’t moved enough in our opinion and we’ll grab the OVER. |
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09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Jacksonville +1 over Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Jags are now 0-2 and backed into a must win corner. We felt they would be improved this year and their stats in the first two games were actually solid. They outgained Green Bay and had a chance to win late but lost a tight one. After that emotional setback, Jacksonville had to travel cross country to San Diego last Sunday. They laid an egg getting whipped 38-14. However they did outgain San Diego with some offensive movement late in the game but 3 turnovers and a flat as a pancake showing did them in. We expect them to play much better this week and they get one of their top offensive weapons back at RB Ivory is expected to make his season debut. Baltimore is 2-0 and this game isn’t nearly as important to them. Let’s face it. The Ravens are undefeated but have played two of the worst teams in the NFL and have not looked dominant in either game. They topped Buffalo 13-7 at home and then had to come from behind to win @ Cleveland last week. The Browns just out to a 20-2 lead in the first quarter and then proceeded to lay an egg and score zippo the rest of the way and Baltimore won 25-20. The Ravens are on the road for the 2nd straight week and since 2012 this team has just a 9-16 record away from home. Jags are the play here. |
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09-25-16 | Vikings v. Panthers -7 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We swallowed the point last week with the Panthers over the 49ers and it turned out pretty well for us with Carolina winning 46-27 as a 13-point chalk. The Panthers dominated that game with +10 first downs, 430 yards of total O and a +12 minute time of possession edge. Now the Panthers should be focused on a Minnesota team that is 2-0 and the defending NFC North Champs. But we're not sold on the Vikings and have found some holes or chinks in their armor. They stand 2-0 with wins over the Tennessee Titans who had just 3 wins last year and a Green Bay team that is just 6-8 SU their last 14 games dating back to last season. In two games this year the Vikings have less than 100 total yards of rushing and are now without RB Adrian Peterson for the year. Minnesota was outgained in the opener by the Titans and barely outgained the Packers last week in their grand opening of their new stadium. Carolina has one of the best offenses in the NFL and have way too many great statistical rankings to list here (OK, we'll give a few: #2 in 3rd down conversions, 1st scoring 33PPG, 5th points per play, 3rd yards per game at 431). While the Vikings are one dimensional offensively right now and over-rated defensively based on the fact they've benefitted from 6 turnovers in the first two games of the season. In terms of 'O' the Vikes are 28th worst in yards per game at 292, 26th in yards per play, last in rushing and 17th in scoring offense at 21PPG. Carolina has won 14 straight home games and are 11-5 their last 16 as a home chalk. Lay the points with the Panthers. |
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09-25-16 | Lions v. Packers OVER 47 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 47, Detroit @ Green Bay, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Being located in Wisconsin we obviously pay extra attention to the Packers and after two horrible offensive showings we expect a breakout game for Rodgers and company on Sunday against a banged up Lions defense. On the other side of the ball we expect the Lions to put up points too in what sets up to be a high scoring shootout. Green Bay's pass defense has been suspect at best and will be tested here by the Lions and QB Stafford who is completing 67% of his pass attempts (8th best in the NFL) for 285 yards per game (7th best). The Packers have allowed 277 yards passing per game which is 20th worst in the league. In contrast to Stafford, Aaron Rodgers is completing just 57% of his pass attempts which is 29th worst in the NFL for 189.5 yards per game (31st) which is clearly and aberration. The Lions are 5th overall in the NFL at 6.3 yards per play while the Packers are 30th at 4.5YPPL, again the Packers number is not the norm. Detroit is without their three starting linebackers which will provide opportunities for short underneath routes to the tightends and running backs out of the backfield. Both of these teams played in low scoring games last week after the Packers/Jags combined for 50 points in week #1 while the Lions/Colts combined for 74 points. These two NFC North rivals will revert back to how they played in week #1 in what should be a shootout. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Philadelphia, Monday at 8:30 PM ET We’ll gladly fade the rookie QB Carson Wentz making the first road start of his career AND on Monday Night! Wentz looked solid last week in the friendly confines of Lincoln Financial Field. And let’s not forget they were facing the hapless Cleveland Browns who some experts predict will be the worst NFL team in years. We were actually on Cleveland last week and if they can’t show up and play well (they didn’t) against an average team with a rookie QB, we agree the Browns are now officially in big trouble. Back to this game…Chicago battled Houston, a playoff team from last year, fairly well last week on the road. The Bears led entering the 4th quarter before falling 23-14. That loss makes this a huge home game for them especially with another road game on deck @ Dallas next week. Despite the loss last week, head coach John Fox has proven he can turn teams around quickly and we expect Chicago to be much improved. Fox took over Carolina in 2002 and went 7-9 his first year followed up by 11-5 in year 2. He then took over Denver in 2011 and went just 8-8 but followed that up with a 13-3 mark in his second season. It’s now his 2nd season in Chicago. Versus a rookie coach and rookie QB we look for Fox and the Bears to pick up a must win at home on Monday night. Lay it. |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 43 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43, Green Bay @ Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET More often than not if we’re zeroing in on a total in a division game, we lean UNDER. Long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. Entering this season, the overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. We rate BOTH of these defenses ahead of their offenses at this point and yes that includes Green Bay. Truth be told, the Packers offense was pretty average last year putting up just 23 PPG and we consider them a work in progress early in the season. Jordy Nelson returns but he’ll take awhile to get back into top form. Last week the Packer offense didn’t even reach 300 yards of total offense vs Jacksonville. Now they face a Minnesota defense that is very solid and the strength of the Viking team. Minnesota put up 25 points last week but 14 of those were from the defense. They only scored 1 offensive TD. They move to Bradford at QB this week but he’s only been with the team for 2 weeks so don’t expect any offensive explosions vs this solid Green Bay defense. We like the UNDER as the Packers & Vikings open the brand new US Bank stadium. |
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09-18-16 | 49ers v. Panthers -13 | Top | 27-46 | Win | 100 | 94 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -13 over San Francisco, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re not into laying huge numbers in the NFL very often, however if there was ever a spot to do it, this is it and we will. The Panthers obviously have Super Bowl aspirations and with their opening week loss @ Denver, they can’t afford to lose this one. They’ve had extra time to get ready for this game as well having played on their opener on Thursday. San Fran, on the other hand, had to play on Monday night and looked very good in their 28-0 win. Now on a short week they have to travel to the east coast to face one of the top teams in the NFL. We saw a similar situation last year when the Niners opened on Monday night with a home win over Minnesota and then had to travel to Pittsburgh in week 2. The result of that game? Steelers 43, Niners 18. The San Francisco defense looked good shutting down the Rams horrendous offense. It will be a different story this week facing a Carolina offense that led the league in scoring last year at 31 PPG. Offensively, the Niners have one of the weakest passing attacks in the NFL behind QB Gabbert. They must run the ball well to be successful. They did just that vs the Rams but now face a rested and angry Carolina defense that didn’t play well in week 1 with Denver running the ball very well. That’s the same Panther defense that allowed only 86 YPG rushing last year (4th in the NFL) so you can bet they’ll be ready here. If SF gets down big, which we predict they will, they have very little “come back” ability. This game has 28-7 or 35-10 written all over it. Carolina in a blowout. |
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09-18-16 | Saints +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New Orleans +4.5 over NY Giants, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We’re surprised to see the Giants as such a hefty favorite here. We were on the GMen last week vs the Cowboys and got a push, however we weren’t fairly underwhelmed with their performance. They were playing a Dallas team starting a rookie QB and needed a late TD (6:00 minutes remaining) to get a 1-point win. On top of that the Giants had fewer first downs and less yardage. Not very impressive. Now off an important division win we can see this one as not being quite as important as it is to the Saints. That’s because New Orleans lost at home 35-34 to the Raiders who scored late and went for 2 to get the win. The Saints blew a 14 point 3rd quarter lead but had more first downs and outgained Oakland. Drew Brees was fantastic throwing for 423 yards and 4 TD’s. We expect him to have a huge day against a New York defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 227 yards last week. This one is probably going to be a shootout with the total set a 53. Even if New Orleans gets behind, they are not out of this one with their potent offense. Their “back door ability” if they do get behind has to be taken into account as well. The Giants haven’t had a great home field advantage as they’ve won only 4 of their last 13 games here. We look for this one to go to the wire and we’ll grab the generous points. |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills OVER 40 | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points, NY Jets @ Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS This total opened 42 and has been pushed down to 40. Now we feel the value is on the OVER and we’ll grab it. Last year’s two totals in this AFC East match up were 41.5 and 41. Both went under hitting 39 each time, however a lot of points were left on the field. The Jets lost both games 22-17 but had the ball deep in Buffalo territory in both games only to come up short. In the first game last year, the Jets actually threw 3 interception in their final 3 possessions. Buffalo struggled offensively last week @ Baltimore scoring just 7 points but they only ran 48 plays (Baltimore ran 66). We expect them to put more on the board this week as they have scored at least 20 in 9 straight games vs the Jets. New York looked solid offensively last week vs a very good Cincy defense putting up 22 points on 5.2 YPP. Weather looks perfect and we like both to get to 20 here pushing this OVER the total. |
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09-15-16 | Jets -1 v. Bills | Top | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Jets -1 over Buffalo, Thursday at 8:25 PM ET - on CBS Both teams are 0-1 so the desperation will be alive for each. With that being said, if both bring their “A” games, the Jets are simply the better team. The Bills offense looked horrendous against a decent but not great Baltimore defense. Buffalo had only 160 total yards on just 3.3 yards per play. They crossed midfield only TWICE the enter game. Now they face a Jets defense that ranked 5th in the NFL last season and looked very solid against a potent Bengal offense last week. Meanwhile the Jets offense looked solid scoring 22 points on 5.2 YPP vs a very good Cincy defense. The Bengals kicked a FG with under 1:00 minute remaining to pick up the 23-22 win. The flyboys scored on 3 of their 5 first half possessions and had a 22 yard FG blocked on one of this first half drives. The Jets will have a little extra motivation here as well as they lost both meetings last year by the same exact 22-17 score. A closer look reveals that New York actually outplayed Buffalo and turnovers were the difference (as they are in most NFL games). In the two games combined, the Jets had 30 first downs (to 31 for Buffalo), 618 yards (to 575 for Buffalo), 5.4 yards per play (to 4.2 YPPG for Buffalo), and a whopping 7 turnovers for the Jets (just 1 for Buffalo). Even with that turnover disparity, the Jets had the ball deep in Buffalo territory late the game with a chance to win. In BOTH games. Where the line sits we basically have to pick the winner and we think that will be the better team – J-E-T-S! |
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09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 42 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 43.5, LA Rams @ San Francisco, Monday at 10:20 PM ET We like UNDER in the LA Rams versus the SF 49ers on Monday night. Last year in the two regular season meetings between these two NFC West rivals they combined to score 33 and 35 points with the later coming in OT. Vegas had Totals on those two contests of 41 and 39 respectively and now have a much higher number here in the season opener. The Niners had the lowest scoring offense in the NFL last year at just 14.9PPG while the Rams ranked slightly better at 17.5PPG which was 4th worst. Neither team has 'big play' capability in the passing game as they lack playmakers at the wideouts and neither team has a starting QB to get them the ball. No two teams in the NFL have worst QB situations than these two clubs as the Rams are forced to start Case Keenum (47.7QBR) while the 49ers counter with Blaine Gabbert (42.2QBR) or the other guy who I won't even mention. Los Angeles (St Louis) had the worst passing game in the NFL last year at just 175YPG while the 49ers were 29th at 203.4YPG. L.A. will rely heavily on running back Todd Gurley and their defense to win games this season. Niners head coach Chip Kelly didn't produce in Philly with his vaunted college offense and it won't translate here in San Francisco, especially early on. Both defenses were better 'efficiency' wise compared to their Net Yards allowed seasonal stats last year and we expect both D-units to dominate on Monday night. 12 of the Rams 16 games last season ended with less points than tonight's Total. If you take out overtime, the 49ers and their opponents scored less than the Total on this game in 11 of their 16 games last year. The Rams are on 6-1 'under' run dating back to last year and the offense is worse than it was a season ago. The Under has cashed in 18 of the 49ers last twenty three home games. Points will be hard to come by in this one....bet UNDER! |
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09-12-16 | Steelers -3 v. Redskins | Top | 38-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -3 over Washington, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET The Redskins won the terrible NFC East by default last year despite getting outgained by an average of 28 YPG which ranked them 23rd in the NFL in that category. The NFC Least was terrible in 2015 with the 3 other teams (Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles) combining for a 17-31 record. Somebody had to win it, right? That was the Skins who had, by far, the worst point differential of all the NFL playoff teams at +9 for the entire season. There were 13 teams that had better point differentials than Washington and 22 teams that had better YPG differential. They didn’t beat a winning team all last season. While this was a playoff team last year by definition, they really weren’t good enough to be in the post-season and that was proven when wildcard team GB went into Washington and smoked the Skins 35-18 to quickly knock them out. The Steelers are the MUCH better team here. They were +45 YPG better than Washington offensively last year, +95 better in overall point differential and gave up 17 fewer YPG. Pitt is far superior at QB with Roethlisberger vs Cousins and they also have the top WR in the NFL in Antonio Brown. While RB Bell is out in this game, his back up DeAngelo Williams rushed for almost 1,000 yards last year so very little drop off there. While Washington really didn’t deserve their post-season berth last year, the Steelers beat Cincy on the road and then outplayed eventual Super Bowl Champion Denver on the road in a 23-16 loss outgaining the Broncs by 72 yards. Pitt put up almost 400 yards on a Bronco defense that allowed just 283 on the season. Now this potent Steeler offense faces a Washington D that finished 28th in YPG allowed last year. We’ll gladly lay the 3 points in this spot and take Pittsburgh. |
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09-11-16 | Patriots +6.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 76 h 58 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England +6.5 over Arizona, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We realize Brady will be in street clothes watching this one and because of that this spread is set too high. Give Belichick nearly a full TD and ample time to prepare and we have a very dangerous dog here. Belichick took over as the Pats head coach in 2000 and New England has been an underdog 67 times in that span. They are 44-22-1 ATS in those games. If they are getting 6 points or more (they are currently +6) his Patriot team is 12-4 ATS (75%) with 7 of those being outright wins. You can bet Belichick will have a great game plan going into this one. Brady’s replacement, Jimmy Garappolo, looked solid in the pre-season and as long as he doesn’t make huge mistakes, New England has a chance to win this one outright. He has the top TE combo in the NFL as targets with Marcellus Bennett teaming up with Gronk (he is ? here) this year. Arizona looked absolutely terrible in the pre-season and the scary part is, even in game 3 when the starters played extensively, they were whipped by Houston and the starters only put up 10 points in the first half. QB Carson Palmer threw 2 picks and didn’t look good. The starting defense gave up 31 points in the first half of that game @ Houston. Arizona is the favorite to win the Super Bowl this year but we think they might be a bit over valued entering the season. Laying nearly a TD to New England is too high. The Pats will keep this close |
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09-11-16 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 26 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5, San Diego @ Kansas City, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET It’s always smart to at least take a look at the UNDER in a divisional game in the NFL. You don’t always have to use the situation, however long term numbers heavily favor the UNDER in division games. Since 2003, only 8 teams in the entire NFL have hit more than 50% OVERS when playing against a division opponent. That means 24 teams have hit UNDERS more than 50% of the time vs division teams. The overall over/under record since 2005 in division games in the NFL is 1,160 OVERS & 1,317 UNDERS – thus +157 more UNDERS during that span. This AFC West rivalry has been a strong play to the UNDER. The last 23 meeting have resulted in 15 UNDERS & 8 OVERS. The last 4 meetings have all gone UNDER with an average point total of just 30. Only 5 of the last 23 games between these two have gotten to 50 pts or higher. On top of that, KC has gone UNDER in 35 of their last 56 home games and vs the AFC West the Chiefs are 40-23 to the UNDER their last 63. We also expect a slower paced game as the Chiefs were 31st in the NFL in offensive pace last year and San Diego was middle of the pack. This number is currently in the mid-40’s and too high. Take the UNDER. |
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09-08-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 106 | 50 h 16 m | Show |
PLAY ON: DENVER BRONCOS: It's the Super Bowl rematch as the Panthers and Broncos square off Thursday night in Denver. Let's first talk about the last meeting and the importance it has on this game and how it will impact the outcome. In the Super Bowl the Broncos defense was absolutely dominating and they essentially won the game themselves. On the other side of the football Denver had less than 200 yards of total offense, just 11 first downs but still won the game by 14-points. Why? Because the defense sacked Newton six times, forced 4 turnovers, 1 for a TD and 1 that directly led to a touchdown. Yes, the Denver D lost a few key players but our NFL insiders tells us they won't miss a beat, still have the best D-line and secondary in the NFL. Some experts feel this Denver defense might be one of the best overall units they've seen in years. In other words we don't expect a change on that side of the football for Denver so what about the offense? Former Broncos QB Peyton Manning was just 13 of 23 (56.6 percent) for 141 yards in the Super Bowl. He threw no touchdowns and one interception for a 56.6 passer rating, which ranks as the fourth-worst in Super Bowl history for winning quarterbacks. We're pretty confident young QB Trevor Siemian, who has had a great training camp, can manage this offense with the returning talent on the roster. Not to mention the Panthers start two rookie CB's which has only happened one other time since 1991. The Panthers were one of the league's best offenses statistically last year with QB Newton, RB Stewart and TE Olson but let's not forget they played the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL last season. Denver has 18 of the 22 overall starters from last year's team, are playing at home and getting points. In direct comparison, the Panthers were -4.5-point favorites last year on a neutral field and are now laying nearly the same number in Denver? Denver is 16-3 SU their last nineteen at home and have been a home dog of 3-point or less just three times in that span (3-0 SU/ATS). Carolina is 0-4 ATS their last four road games and while this is a revenge game the value clearly lies with Denver. Take the home team! |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver +6 over Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We have to take the line value with Denver here. Now that this team has pushed up to –5.5 or -6 in favor of the Panthers, we’ll jump on the Broncos. To put this line in perspective, we’ll adjust the line as if Carolina was the home team. With the line where it is set now, that would mean Carolina would be -10 at home vs Denver which is off. When comparing this to their most recent 5 home games, you’ll see what we mean. In those home games the Panthers were favored by 3 vs Arizona, 2.5 vs Seattle, 8.5 vs Atlanta, 10 vs Tampa, and 7 vs Washington. That puts this current line in perspective and tells us where the value is. Denver has been an underdog 5 times this year covering all 5 and winning 4 of those games outright over New England (twice), KC, and Green Bay. As we all know they have the #1 defense in the NFL and completely shut down the Patriots and Tom Brady last week. That’s not easy to do. Teams with the better overall defense have won 40 of the 49 Super Bowls and that sits squarely in Denver’s corner here. With 2 weeks to prepare we’re positive the Denver defense will have a great game plan to slow down Carolina. The Panthers have obviously been very good in their first 2 playoff games both at home. Now that they have to leave the confines of their home stadium and travel west. They played a very weak slate away from home this year beating only one team that finished the season with a winning record. Peyton Manning is obviously on his last leg for Denver but he’s played OK since he came back into the lineup. He has gone 3 straight games without turning the ball over which is key here vs a Carolina team that is +20 in turnover margin (+6 turnovers more than the 2nd best margin). Manning has been in this spot numerous times and has the savvy to manage this game and get a win. He knows his role now. Denver will play great defense and make this a “slow” paced, field position type game. Carolina is definitely the “public” side here as their offense has been red hot. The problem is that has made the Panthers an overvalued side here as we mentioned earlier. That doesn’t bode well as teams that score 40+ points in the playoffs (Carolina did last week) are just 5-23 ATS their next game! The dog is also 6-1 ATS the last 8 Super Bowls – last year was a pick-em game so it’s not included. We think Denver’s defense keeps this close and getting nearly a TD is the way to go. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 51 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45 - Denver vs Carolina, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET We have the two most efficient defense in the NFL here with Denver ranking #1 in that category and Carolina #2. The Panthers offense has been hot but Denver just held Pittsburgh & New England (two top notch offenses) to just 3 TD’s combined. Carolina played a number of weak defenses throughout the year so we feel their overall numbers are bit skewed. In fact, of their 16 regular season games, the Panthers only faced 2 teams that ended the season ranked in the top 10 in total defense. The Bronco defense has allowed more than 20 points only 6 times this entire season and that includes their playoff games (18 games). The Denver offense will be playing into one of the top defenses in the NFL as well. The Broncs have turned into a “conservative” offense that runs the ball quite a bit. They need this game to be lower scoring to have a chance and we think they’ll get a slower pace here. Denver plays the field position game, Manning doesn’t make any mistakes, and this turns into a low scoring slugfest. We like the UNDER in this game. |