Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-26-23 | Bills -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
#121 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -2.5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET - Both teams plan to play their starters in this game which gives the Bills a solid edge. How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here. The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend. In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times. 17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards. A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP. Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards). Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s). We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win. Lay the small number with Buffalo. |
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08-11-23 | Steelers -2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
#109 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Friday at 7 PM ET - This one opened with the Steelers favored by 1.5 and has jumped a bit. We like them here at -3 or lower and right now (Wednesday evening) the line is set at -2.5 at most shops. We like Pittsburgh’s QB rotation quite a bit which is key in the pre-season with backups and 3rd stringers getting a lot of time. They will start with Kenny Pickett who was solid last year as a rookie throwing for nearly 2500 yards on 63% completions. Pickett struggled a bit early in the season but Pitt won 5 of their final 6 games last season and their lone loss during that stretch was 16-14 vs Baltimore, a game Pickett sat out the majority of in concussion protocol. Mitch Trubisky and Mason Rudolph are fighting for the back up spot and both have plenty of NFL experience, including starting experience. We have Pittsburgh’s offensive line & overall defense rated ahead of Tampa’s entering this season. The Bucs will start Baker Mayfield and QB and then move to Kyle Trask. Mayfield has been up & down at best in his career (61% career completion percentage) and Trask has attempted only 9 career passes in the NFL. The coaching edge is heavily in Pittsburgh’s favor with Mike Tomlin over Tampa’s Todd Bowles. Tomlin has put an emphasis on performing well in the pre-season with a SU record of 15-4 the last 5 seasons. Bowles was 0-3 SU in the pre-season last year, his first as Tampa’s head coach. Pitt beat the Bucs 20-18 last year in the regular season and that was with Brady at QB for TB. We like the Steelers to win this one by more than a FG. |
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08-27-22 | Bears v. Browns -5 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
#126 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Browns -5 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 7 PM ET - New Chicago head coach Eberflus announced this week that they will play their starters for much of the first half. What happened after he announced that? The line went from Cleveland -4 up to -5 and -5.5. That’s because the Browns also plan on playing their starters for some of the first half including QB Brissett who has yet to play in the preseason. Browns head coach Stefanski said he wants to get Brissett some extended time with the starters so he is ready when the season rolls around in a few weeks. Our view on this game is if both sets of starters play extensively in the first half – big edge Cleveland. After the break, who has the advantage in the 2nd half? Cleveland as well as they are deeper and have the better QB rotation with Dobbs and Rosen. The Bears are 2-0 in the preseason but their offensive numbers have been poor averaging just 4.2 yards per play. That’ll be a problem in this game vs a deep Cleveland defense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year and in 2 preseason games they’ve allowed just 4.5 YPP. The Browns are 1-1 in the preseason but they’ve outgained both of their opponents by nearly a full 1.0 YPP. Their loss was here at home last week when the Eagles scored a TD late in the 4th quarter to pick up a 21-20 win. The Browns are at home again this week off that tough loss while Chicago is on the road for the 2nd straight game after traveling to Seattle last week. The Bears will really struggle offensively in this game and we like Cleveland to win by a TD+ |
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08-22-22 | Falcons v. Jets UNDER 39 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 39 Points – Atlanta Falcons vs NY Jets, Monday at 8 PM ET - This total opened at 42 and has dropped to 39. We completely agree with the move and feel there is still some value on the Under here. Our power ratings have this total set at 37.5. These 2 had joint practices the last few days and the Jets defense was dominant according to our reports. Atlanta’s offense did next to nothing including in their red zone drills vs NY’s defense. It sounds like the Falcons will start rookie QB Ridder who played extensively in their first preseason game but completed less than 50% of his passes. Even if starter Mariota goes here, he struggled big time vs this Jets defense that last 2 days. The NY offense actually played well vs Atlanta’s defense in joint practices, however because of injury problems, there is a good chance that Jet head coach Saleh will sit his starters in this one. Even if they play, it will be a short stint. Especially QB Flacco who will most likely be the starter early in the regular season with Wilson injured. They cannot afford to lose Flacco to injury so he won’t play much if at all here. All reports were the Jets were the better team the last 2 days practicing vs Atlanta but with the Falcons set to play starters for at least some time and the Jets not sure, the Under is the better play here. Atlanta scored 27 points in their first preseason game vs Detroit who had one of the worst defense in the NFL last year. The Birds had only 307 total yards in that game so they were quite fortunate to get to 27 points. NY had a similar situation scoring 24 points on just 301 total yards. The We look for the Atlanta offense to really have a tough time and with NY’s QB situation, they’ll be going with 3rd stringer White and 4th stringer Streveler for most of the game if not all. Neither team gets to 20 points here and we’ll grab the Under. |
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08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
#412 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Buffalo Bills -6.5 over Denver Broncos, Saturday at 1:00 PM ET - After last week’s win, the Bills have now won 9 straight NFL preseason games which is the 2nd best current streak behind the Ravens 21 straight games. It’s obvious that head coach Sean McDermott puts an emphasis on winning preseason games. He has stated he will play his starters “a healthy amount” this week including QB Josh Allen. Last week in their 27-24 win over Indianapolis, McDermott sat most of his starters and the Bills had 5 turnovers and still pulled out a win. They outgained the Colts, who played more of their starters including starting QB Matt Ryan, by 1.6 yards per play. Denver will not play their starters in this game according to new head coach Nathaniel Hackett who says he “isn’t a fan of the preseason”. Josh Johnson will start at QB followed by Brett Rypien for Denver who beat Dallas 17-7 last week but outgained the Cowboys by only 8 yards. We have one of the best teams in the NFL playing their starters extensively here vs a bunch of back ups for Denver. Laying under a TD is a solid situation. Take Buffalo. |
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08-19-22 | Saints v. Packers UNDER 40 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
#405/406 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 40 – New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - The first week of the NFL preseason saw 14 of the 17 games (including the HOF game) go Over the Total. The average total set by the oddsmakers last week was 34.8 and after last week’s scoring (games averaged 43 total points) the average total set this week is right around 40 which is where this game sits. The Packers total last week vs San Francisco was set at 34.5 and the Saints total vs Houston was 35. This is an over adjustment in our opinion and we think there is some value on the Under in this game. Neither starting QB will take the field in this one and both defenses look like they are ahead of the offenses right now. The Saints defense held Houston to 275 total yards and 17 points last week. One of those TD’s came on a 47 yard drive after a New Orleans turnover and the other came with 25 seconds remaining in the game. The Saints offense only averaged 3.9 YPP in that game (only scored 13 points) vs a Houston defense that finished 31st in YPP defense a year ago. The Niners scored 28 points but had only 328 total yards in their home game vs GB last week. SF was put in favorable field position throughout the game due to 3 Packer turnovers and 3 of their 5 scores came on drives of 39 yards or less. These 2 have been facing off in practice this week and our word is the defenses have dominated. These two defenses should be among the best in the NFL this year and we look for the offenses to struggle in this game. Under is our recommendation. |
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08-13-22 | Saints v. Texans UNDER 33.5 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* UNDER 33.5 New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans, Saturday 8 PM ET - We will start with the all-important QB positions for both teams. The Saints are without starter Jameis Winston so Andy Dalton will get a series or two under center followed by Ian Book and newly signed KJ Costello. Houston only has two QB’s currently available so Davis Mills will play longer than expected followed by 6-year vet Jeff Driskel. Reports out of the Texans camp is that the offense has looked horrible. QB Davis has been indecisive and hasn’t been good throwing the ball downfield. The best running back in camp thus far has been rookie Dameon Pierce who was drafted in the 4th round. The Texans were one of the least explosive offenses in the NFL a season ago averaging just 4.7 Yards Per Play which ranked them 30th. Houston managed just 1-point for every 16.9 yards gained which was also 30th out of 32 team’s last season. New Orleans is loaded on offense this season but don’t expect to see many of their Super Stars on the field Saturday. As we mention starting QB Winston is out, RB Kamara is facing a suspension so why jeopardize him in a meaningless preseason game and Michael Thomas is coming off a serious ankle injury. New Orleans was well below average in Yards Per Play a season ago at 4.9 and scored just 21.4PPG which was significantly lower than what they averaged the previous season at 29.1PPG. Both teams’ defenses are ahead of the offenses at this point, and we expect a very low scoring game. Bet UNDER. |
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08-11-22 | Titans v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show |
#108 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baltimore Ravens -3.5 over Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Lots of things going for the Ravens in this one. First of all it’s quite obvious that head coach John Harbaugh wants to win in the pre-season. His well documented and talked about lifetime record 40-12 SU record in NFLX including 20 straight wins dating back to the 2016 season! They’ve won 12 of those 20 games by double digits and their average margin of victory in their 20 game winning streak is +13 PPG. Not only are the Ravens winning NFLX games at an incredible rate, they are covering to the tune of 25-5 ATS their last 30. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel hasn’t shown much determination the pre-season winning just 4 of his 11 games since taking over the Titans in 2018. The QB advantage also is heavily in favor of Baltimore in this game. Tennessee starter Tannehill didn’t take a single snap in the pre-season last year and we doubt he will play in this game. That leaves Logan Woodside, who has thrown 3 career passes in the NFL, and rookie Malik Willis to guide this offense. Baltimore will most likely go without starting QB Jackson as well but we like their depth at that position much better. Tyler Huntley is the back up and he threw for over 1,000 yards last year taking over for Jackson when he was injured. After Huntley it will be Brett Hundley who has throw for almost 2,000 yards in his career. Tennessee is banged up in the defensive backfield and had to add 2 safeties to the roster this week so they have enough depth for this game. We’ll lay it Baltimore at home on Thursday night. |
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08-28-21 | Bucs -3.5 v. Texans | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 61 h 57 m | Show |
#117 ASA NFLX TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3.5 over Houston, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Super Bowl champs step into this game with an 0-2 pre-season record. QB Brady has played one series the entire pre-season and the starters have been very limited. In their game last weekend vs Tennessee, most of the starters didn’t even see the field. That changes this week. Tampa head coach Bruce Arians stated he needs to get his regulars some extended playing time in preparation for their NFL opener vs Dallas. "We can't go against Dallas and all of sudden play game speed. We've got to have some game speed under our belt before we show up against the Cowboys,” Arians said this week. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-0 in the pre-season beating the Packers and the Cowboys. Their defense has yet to play against a legit QB having faced Jordan Love, Kurt Benkert, Ben DiNucci, Garrett Gilbert, and Cooper Rush so far in their 2 NFLX games. Now they’ll have to face Brady and the Tampa starters for an extended period of time. Despite their 2 wins the Houston offense, still without QB Watson, has averaged just 4.4 YPP. Now they will face perhaps the top defense in the NFL with their QB rotation of Tyrod Taylor, Jeff Driskel, and Davis Mills. If the Tampa starters play as planned, we basically have one of the top teams in the NFL (Bucs) facing one of the worst teams in the NFL (Texans). We’ll lay it in this game and take Tampa to cover. |
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08-28-21 | Packers v. Bills OVER 36.5 | Top | 0-19 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* OVER 36.5 Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills, Saturday 1 PM ET - The Packers have had some glaring deficiencies defensively in the preseason with 23 and 26 points allowed to the Jets and Texans. It’s only preseason but there are clearly some underlying problems with the Packer ‘D’. Consider the Jets and Texans were two of the worst offenses in the NFL last season and yet they put up 268-yards and 319-yards. New York was 30th a year ago in points scored per game while Houston was 21st in yards per point offensively. Now the Pack face a Bills offense that was 4th in Yards Per Point, 3rd in scoring and 4th in total yards per game gained. Buffalo is planning to start and play their regulars for a few series and clearly have capable backups which produced 41-points last week in Chicago. Green Bay is going to start and play QB Jordan Love who sat out last week against the Jets. Love was 12 of 17 with a TD in his preseason debut and should move the ball here against the Bills. Green Bay has yet to look good in the exhibition season but let’s not forget this unit was 2nd in total yards per game a year ago, 1st in scoring at 31.5PPG and 2nd in Yards Per Point at 12.5. Buffalo has faced the Lions and Bears who were bottom ten teams in the NFL offensively a year ago, so this is a dramatic step up in competition. Look for a few early scores from the starters and some late by the guys fighting for a spot on the rosters. BET OVER. |
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08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints OVER 39.5 | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
#431/432 ASA TOP PLAY ON Over 39.5 Points – Jacksonville vs New Orleans, Monday at 8 PM ET - New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer has not made it a secret that he wants an up tempo offense. The Jags ran 65 plays last week vs Cleveland and Meyer stated he was upset with the team’s offensive tempo and wanted to push the dial much more heading into this week’s game @ New Orleans. They worked on it all week in practice and we would expect them to run 70+ plays this week. Meyer stated, “I thought practice was much better. I get the first game [being slow], but now I want to try to have a little bit of success.” We like their QB rotation of Lawrence, Minshew and Beathard which should give them a chance to put points on the board this week. The defense is definitely a work in progress and allowed 23 points to the Browns last week after finishing 31st last year giving up 31 PPG. New Orleans only put up 14 points last week vs a very good Baltimore defense but averaged 6.0 YPP. They turned the ball over 6 times in that game including 3 deep inside Raven territory at the 8-yard line, the 11-yard line and the 35-yard line (all potential scoring opportunities lost). On top of that the Ravens turned the ball over at the 11-yard line and were stopped on downs at the Saints 39 in that game (more blown scoring chances). We like the QB competition between Winston and Hill as both are veterans with starting experience and both need to be on top of their game fighting for the #1 job. We expect plenty of offensive snaps in this game with the Jags wanting to play fast and the Saints finishing in the top 10 in plays per game last season. The pre-season has been low scoring for the most part thus far, but we look for this to be one of the higher scoring games to date. Take the OVER. |