Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the under Chiefs/Chargers. Clearly with Patrick Mahomes and Philip Rivers under center for these teams, points shouldn't be too hard to come by. But I think the overall situation lends itself to more of a lower-scoring battle on Monday night. First off, this game is being played in Mexico City, which is difficult for players. Neither team's defense has been great, but there are significant O/U trends that support our theory as well. Key Trends: - As note that KC has seen the total dip under the number in three of its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its last game. - LA has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after an extremely close road loss by three points or less. The verdict: Both teams come in off high-scoring losses and each is hungry for a victory here. This one has the feel of a "chess match," rather than a "shootout." Play the under! |
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11-17-19 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 40.5 | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Bills/Dolphins. Miami has won two in a row and it'll now look to build and to try and give the Bills a second straight loss in a row. For Buffalo, it's blazing start to the season is going to be in the rear view mirror if it can't start putting some production on the board. When these teams met earlier in the year though, it was Buffalo that laid the hammer down in the 31-21 victory and I believe a similar final combined score is on deck here as well. Key Trends: - The Bills have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight after a loss by six points or less. - The Fish have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 12 as a home dog. The verdict: Buffalo's pissed about its last second loss in Cleveland last weekend and knows it has to get out and push the pace here. The Dolphins are riding high after a two-game win streak and Ryan Fitzpatrick and company won't be backing down either. This one could go OVER by half time! |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Vikes/Boys. I think this is a great "situational spot bet" on the total. These two teams absolutely dominate in stopping the run, so as such I'm fully expecting this to be a "shootout" at the OK Corral on Sunday night! The Vikes enter off a 26-23 loss to Kansas City and they can't afford to take the foot off the gas obviously. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was a bright spot in defeat, going for three TD's and 222 passing yards. The Cowboys are rolling right now though and there's no reason not to think that they can't keep the momentum trending in that direction. In last week's 37-18 win over the Giants, Dallas' QB Dak Prescott had three TD's. Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go over the number in its last two after two or more straight losses vs. the spread. - Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 12 home games as the favorite. The verdict: With each offense focussed on airing it out, I do indeed expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later! |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 48 | Top | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 60 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Cowboys/Giants. The Giants are 2-6, but Daniel Jones and the home side won't be rolling over this weekend after falling 31-26 to the Lions in their last game. Dallas destroyed the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7 and they've had their bye week off to prepare for this matchup. Key Trends: - The Giants have allowed 121 points so far this year. - Dallas has seen the total go over in its last two following its bye week. The verdict: In Week 1 the Cowboys crushed New York 35-17. Look for the home side to play with pride and to make Dallas work for this "W." When you take into account all of the above factors, I'm playing the over! |
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11-03-19 | Lions v. Raiders UNDER 51 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Lions/Raiders. Oakland is 3-4 and it's lost two straight. Oakland catches a break here though this weekend facing this "on again, off again" Lions offense. Detroit broke a three-game slide with a 31-26 win over the Giants. The Lions defense has been shaky the last few weeks as well, but the unit also catches a break facing this Raiders' offense which averages just 21 PPG (the Lions average 25.7). Key Trends: - Detroit has seen the total go under in its last two after playing a two-game home stand. - Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 11 when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. The verdict: The conditions, the situation and the trends/numbers are all point to the "under" as the correct call here in my opinion! |
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10-31-19 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under 49ers/Cards. Arizona enters off a tough loss against the Saints and it's now 3-4. San Francisco is 7-0 and it'll be trying to not get caught looking past the Cards to its big matchup vs. the Seahawks next weekend. Arizona had won three straight until last week's setback. Cards' rookie Kyler Murray though is going to now face the NFC's top defensive unit on a short week and I believe he'll struggle. The 49ers have been blowing teams out this year, but I also think that the short amount of time to prepare will be detrimental to the visitors offense as well. Key Trends: - San Fran has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 after playing a game at home (including in both such instances this year.) - Arizona has seen the total dip under in 19 of its last 30 vs. the conference. The verdict: Look for this divisional battle to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done! |
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10-27-19 | Browns v. Patriots OVER 45.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -106 | 123 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Browns/Pats. This is a big game for the Browns. Not so much for the undefeated defending champs. The Patriots love beating up on the Browns whenever they can, but Cleveland is in dire need of a victory and it enters off its bye week. I simply can't see the Browns sitting back and looking for the Pats to make the first mistake. Cleveland has to be aggressive from start to finish in this one if it has any hopes of pulling of an upset. Both teams sport awesome defenses, but the overall situation in my opinion points more to a "shootout," than a "chess match." Key Trends: - The Browns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three after having lost three of their last four games. - The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in six of their last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. The verdict: Taking into account the situational and trend based factors above, I'm definitely on the over in this one! |
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10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings UNDER 42 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 58 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Skins/Vikings. Washington isn't going to be playing in the postseason after its terrible start. It's looked better since firing Jay Gruden though, earning a win over the hapless Dolphins, before then going down to the wire in an extremely defensive affair, but eventual loss to the 49ers last weekend. On the short week, I think it'll be the Redskins' defensive unit which is once again the main story line for Washington this week (note that the Skins will be extra motivated defensively as well here facing ex teammate Kirk Cousins.) The Vikes are surging and should have no problem controlling this contest in all facets. And with upcoming tough road games in at KC and Dallas, there's no reason to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish either. Key Trends: - Washington has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 following a loss. - Minnesota has seen the total dip under in three of its last four after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: This one has defensive battle written all over it; play the under! |
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10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is the under Eagles/Cowboys. They say defense wins championships. These teams are both filled with plenty of offensive talent, but it's going to be the one which gets the job done defensively today that wins this one in my opinion. It could not get any bigger for these 3-3 divisional foes. Neither will want to make a mistake here and I expect each to "control" the ball while on offense. Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in its last three road games when the total is greater than or equal to 49. - Dallas has seen the total dip under the number in six of its last eight off a non-conference contest. The verdict: This one has defensive, low-scoring battle written all over it; play the under! |
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10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 44 | 42-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Vikes/Lions. These are two of the best defensive clubs in the league and this is a very important game. In my opinion, this number is much too high. The Vikes average 25 PPG and they concede 15 (ranked sixth.) Detroit averages 24 PPG and it allows 23. Key Trends: - Vikes have seen the total go under the number in all three road games so far this season. - Detroit has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten as an underdog. The verdict: Neither teams wants to make a mistake here. This one has the feeling of a "chess match," rather than a high-scoring shootout; play the under! |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 48.5 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is on the under Chiefs/Broncos. Kansas City has dropped back to back home games, suddenly looking poor on both sides of the ball. The defense has been especially atrocious, but the unit catches a break here facing Joe Flacco and the Broncos' run first offense. Flacco has been better of Denver's last two games (both Broncos wins after starting the year 0-3), but it's been the Denver defense which has been the reason for the big turnaround. Mahomes is dealing with an injured ankle right now and he's getting little support from his run game, which is averaging only 87 YPG. KC has to establish the run in the thin air of Denver tonight to alleviate the pressure of Mahomes as well. This one has lower-scoring "under" written all over it in my opinion. Key Trends: - The Chiefs have seen the total dip under the number in six of their last seven after having lost two of their last three games. - The Broncos have seen the total dip under in three of their last four home games as an underdog of three points or less. The verdict: On the short week, I believe the defenses become the main story line in tomorrow's summaries; play the under! |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL MASSACRE is on the under Lions/Packers. Detroit is 2-1-1 and it's been its lights out defensive play which has been the difference for it so far this year. Lions' QB Matt Stafford and the offense has been acceptable, but clearly it's been Detroit's defense which has been the difference maker for the team in the early going. The Lions have already faced some eltie QB's this year, including Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Patrick Mahomes and they've for the most part shut down all three (including holding Mahomes to no TD's.) Green Bay's offense has been decent as well, but it's been the Packers' defense which has "stolen the show" as well this season. Key Trends: - WR Davantae Adams is out for the Packers. - Detroit has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight after allowing 30 points or more in its last game. The verdict: I look for these top rated defenses to take over this one; this number is high, play the under! |
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10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars UNDER 44.5 | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER Saints/Jags. This is a big contest and I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Teddy Bridgewater has done a great job filling in for Drew Brees, winning three straight, but I think he'll have his hands full here in this difficult road venue. Garnder Minshew has also filled in admirably in a backups role for the Jags, winning two of his first four starts. Key Trends: - The Saints average and concede 23 PPG. - The Jags average 22 points and they allow 23. The verdict: I can't see the home side wanting to turn this one into a "shootout" with the high-flying Saints. Instead, I look for the home side to try and control this one and limit mistakes while on offense. This one has low-scoring "under" written all over it! |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots OVER 42.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Giant's Patriots. The Patriots' defense leads the league in almost every statistical category, but New England has yet to face a top tier offensive unit yet. And once again, it won't have to on Thursday night either, as New York comes to town off a listless 28-10 home loss to Minnesota. New York QB Daniel Jones has 760 yards passing with four TD's and three INT's. Jones and company had won two straight previous to that and clearly the rookie will be given the "green light" to try and pull off the upset today. The Giants defense has been decent to this point, but clearly this is a difficult task matching up against Tom Brady in peak form and on his own field. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after scroing 14 points or less in its previous game. - New England has seen the total soar over in interestingly three of its last four off a road blowout win by 21 points or more. The verdict: So far the Pats have seen the O/U go 1-4 this year. The Giants have seen the O/U go 2-3, but with both "overs" occurring on the road. With nothing to lose, I believe the visitors push the pace from start to finish; play the over! |
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10-07-19 | Browns v. 49ers OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Browns/49ers Cleveland started off the year with a blowout loss at home to the Titans. The Browns offense was out of sync and it had to play from behind the whole game. They also committed well over 100 yards in penalties. Last week Baker Mayfield and company destroyed the Ravens 40-25 though and now the Browns' offense is starting to fire on all cylinders. RB Nick Chubb had three rushing TD's and Mayfield had over 350 yards passing. The 49ers enter at 3-0 after having last week off. Previous to that they destroyed the Steelers at home. Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Fran offense is also firing on all cylinders. From a situational stand point, I do absolutely believe that this one sets up as a high-scoring "shootout." Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog. - San Francisco has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less. The verdict: I do expect these two young QB's to push the pace from start to finish. This is a big game for both teams and I'm expecting a classic "shootout" on PRIME TIME! |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans OVER 38.5 | 14-7 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the Bills/Titans over. The Bills are 3-1 and the Titans are 2-2. The Bills have been tremendous defensively so far to open the season, but after last week’s tight 16-10 loss at home to the Patriots, I think the visitors finally start to try and open things up on the offensive side of the ball. The Titans come in with plenty of momentum here as they now look to build off their impressive 24-10 road win over the Falcons. The Bills lost QB Josh Allen last week to a concussion, so Matt Barkley will be out their slinging the ball for the visitors today. RB Frank Gore was a bright spot for the Bills last week with 109 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota had 227 yards passing and three TD’s last week and RB Derrick Henry had 100 rushing yards. I believe Tennessee will definitely build off its last impressive offensive performance. Key Trends: - Buffalo has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after a loss by six points or less. - Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after a two game road trip. The verdict: Barkley and the Bills need to make something happen and the Titans are now firing on all cylinders. When you add up all the above information, everything points to the over as the savvy call in my opinion; play the over! |
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10-06-19 | Patriots v. Redskins OVER 43.5 | Top | 33-7 | Loss | -107 | 118 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Pats/Skins. Yes New England has the best defense in the league. Statistically speaking anyways. The Patriots haven’t been truly tested by a great offense yet this year though and once again they won’t be this weekend either. That said, the 0-4 Redskins have nothing to lose here and will be given the green light to open up the offense from start to finish. This will of course give ample opportunity for this talented and opportunistic Pats’ defense to score as well. Washington has been poor on both sides of the ball this year, but especially defensively. Note that the Redskins’ defense ranks last in the NFL in third-down conversion prevention. Also note that Washington’s best player Josh Norman is questionable for this one. Key Trends: - NE has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. - Washington has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after failing to cover the spread in three out of its last four games. The verdict: Colt McCoy broke his leg on the first play of the National Championship game while he was in College. The Texas alum will be looking to break a leg here as well as he tries to pull of the monumental upset. Tom Brady continues to shine for the Patriots and I expect the veteran to take full advantage of this suspect Skins’ secondary. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it; play the over! |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos UNDER 39 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Jags/Broncos. Both teams have struggled with adversity early, both on and off the field. Denver’s vaunted defense has been terrible so far this season under the defensive minded head coach Vic Fangio, as it’s produced zero sacks and zero forced fumbles over the first three weeks. Clearly this lop-sided trend isn’t going to last forever and I think a big defensive performance is definitely in the cards now vs. the offensively challenged Jaguars. Gardner Minshew picked up a victory for Jacksonville vs. the sputtering Titans last week, but I think the rookie will have his hands full tonight in this difficult road venue. The Broncos offense has been just as bad, which doesn’t bode well facing this stacked Jaguars defense. Key Trends: The Jags have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 on the road. - The Broncos have seen the total go under the number in 12 of their last 18 as a favorite. The verdict: Expect a tough battle until the end and for this total to stay well below the posted number! |
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09-29-19 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 38 | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the over Vikes/Bears. Two hungry division rivals collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that points are going to be plentiful. Chicago is 2-1 and the Vikes are 1-2. Both division rivals are equally as “hungry” for a victory here and I think it’s that sense of enormous focus and competition which will ultimately help in pushing this total above this very low number. Key Trends: - Minnesota is averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, which is second in the league. - Chicago’s offense finally got untracked last week in the 31-15 road victory in the nation’s capital. The verdict: I think the Bears’ offense continues to progress and I believe the Vikes are going to be forced to match the pace of the home side tonight. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over! |
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09-29-19 | Browns v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 40-25 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Browns/Ravens. Cleveland’s offense has been out of sync all season. Baker Mayfield and company have struggled for the most part this season. That’s not about to get any easier vs. this tough division rival (they split two games last year.) Baltimore is allowing only 20 PPG. The Browns’ though have been getting solid production on the defensive side of the field as well, conceding just 22 PPG. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in 17 of its last 27 as an underdog. - Baltimore has seen the total go under in 13 of its last 21 as a favorite. The verdict: The last thing the Browns can do is try to turn this into a “shootout” and expect to hang with the high-flying Ravens. Baltimore faces a stiff defensive task here today though and when you add it all up, I think this one does indeed have “defensive battle” written all over it; play the under! |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Eagles/Packers. So far every Thursday night NFL game has fallen well below the posted number. That includes on Opening Night as well when the Packers played. But I believe that trend finally changes this week, as I believe the desperate 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles will be out to push the pace from start to finish. Yes Green Bay’s defense has been fantastic to this point (allowing just 11.7 PPG thus far) and yes the Eagles have injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but I still don’t think that’s going to matter. Philadelphia’s season is on the line tonight and I expect Carson Wentz to open things up early and often. Of course, Green Bay has also looked fantastic on the offensive side of the ball this year and I think it’s balanced attack is going to run roughshod over this suspect Eagles’ defense. Key Trends: - Philly has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six road game when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. - Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off a home victory by ten points or more. The verdict: Green Bay is desperate to move to 4-0 and the Eagles are desperate to avoid a 1-3 hole. This one has “shootout” written all over it! |
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09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts UNDER 47 | 24-27 | Loss | -102 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the under Falcons/Colts. It’s a big game for both teams, who enter at 1-1. The Colts have looked decent with Jacoby Brissett under center and he’s been leaning heavily on RB Marlon Mack, who already has 225 rushing yards. The Falcons bounced back last week with an impressive 24-20 defensive victory over the Eagles. So far the Falcons ground game has stalled, so we can expect the visitors to be trying to establish that early and often in this one. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting from both of these non-conference sides today as each looks to control the tempo and limit mistakes. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road. - The Falcons have the total dip under the number in 11 of their last 17 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points. - Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 16 at home. - The Colts have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 12 following a divisional contest. The verdict: This one has the feel of a “chess match.” Play the under! |
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09-22-19 | Jets v. Patriots OVER 43.5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 71 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* play on the over Jets/Patriots. It’s do or die for the Jets, as an 0-3 start would be the end of their Super Bowl hopes, and likely a shot at the playoffs as well. New England would love nothing more than to put the final nail in the coffin with a big beatdown victory as well in my opinion. When you add it all up, I think this number is much too low. New York will throw caution to the wind obviously as it’s down to its third string QB, so expect Luke Falk to be given the green light to air this one out early and often. This works both ways of course, as the Pats’ defense is extremely adept at putting points on the board as well. Look for Tom Brady and company to put on a clinic as well in front of the home town crowd. Key Trends: - The Jets have seen the total soar over in five of their last six after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games. - The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in four of their last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games. The verdict: I truly feel this one has a legitimate shot at going over the number by half time; play the over! |
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09-22-19 | Broncos v. Packers OVER 42.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the OVER Broncos/Packers. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring “shootout.” Denver is 0-2 and it’s defense has looked suspect. The offense has struggled as well. Joe Flacco and company won’t be holding anything back here though as they try to salvage their season and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to open the season (no team in NFL history has won the Super Bowl after starting 0-3.) Green Bay has looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball during its 2-0 start, but I think the unit gets tested today by this now desperate Broncos team. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company appear to be firing on all cylinders offensively early as well. As stated off the top, from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it. Key Trends: - Denver has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after scoring 14 points or less in its last game. - GB has seen the total soar over in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. The verdict: Expect a wide open affair from start to finish in this one; play the over! |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* play on the under Browns/Jets. Cleveland played terribly in Week 1. It’s first drive of the game looked brilliant, but then a penalty cost it a TD and the Browns settled for the FG to open things up. And after that it was all downhill, as several penalties resulted in 187 yards lost. At that point, Baker Mayfield and company were forced to play from behind and the dynamic back threw three picks. I don’t think that the Titans offense is as good as it looked in Week 1 and I don’t think that the Browns defense is as bad as it looked either. What we do know is that the Jets blew a 16 point lead late to the Bills and lost in Week 1. They also lost starting QB Sam Darnold to mono. These are two teams looking to limit mistakes and control the tempo. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a lower-scoring battle. Key Trends: - Cleveland has seen the total go under in its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its previous outing. - New York has seen the total go under in its last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number; play the under! |
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09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens UNDER 45 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 145 h 55 m | Show | |
Ricky’s 10* play on the Cards/Ravens under. After both teams played to high-scoring affairs in Week 1, I’m expecting much more of a defensive battle here. The Cards came from behind to tie the Detroit Lions at home, as neither side was able to score in the OT frame. The Ravens annihilated the Dolphins 59-10. Kyler Murray look poised in last week’s tie for the Cards, finishing with 308 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Clearly Arizona will be out to protect their young QB today after the Ravens hammered the Dolphins last week by posting three sacks (note that Murray was sacked five times by the Lions.) Arizona was just 1-4 in the red zone though and it committed on turnover vs. the Lions. So are the Ravens really that good, or are the Dolphins really that bad? I’m not reading too much into that Week 1 result from either the Fish or Ravens. After Arizona allowed 116 rushing yards to Detroit last week, look for the home side to lean heavily on RB Mark Ingram on Sunday. Key Trends: - Arizona has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last eight after scoring three points or less in the first half last game. - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in its last three home games when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. The verdict: I expect a much more conservative game plan in Week 2 from each of these non-conference foes, which I believe will help in ultimately sending this one under the number once it’s all said and done! |
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09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings UNDER 47.5 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 215 h 56 m | Show |
Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Falcons/Vikings. It’s a big game for both teams right out of the gate. Minnesota has a 19-11 all time lead in this series, which includes back-to-back victories, including 14-9 win in 2017. Both teams took big steps backwards last year, but each has big expectations heading into this season. While the offense stalled for Minnesota last year, the Vikings return ten starters on the defensive side of the ball to a unit which is once again expected to be one of the bed tin the league. Atlanta was plagued by injury last year. The Falcons’ offense isn’t in question ever with Matt Ryan running the show, but Atlanta’s success in 2019/20 will once again be decided on what its defense is capable of doing. Key Trends: - Atlanta has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 on the road. - Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 12 as a home favorite. The verdict: I can’t see the Vikes turning this into a “shootout” with Ryan and company, so I believe we’ll see a much more methodical pace from the home side. When you add up all of the above factors I believe that the under is definitely the correct call! |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 58 | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 324 h 18 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the “under” in the Super Bowl. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Underrated defensive units. With so much offensive fire-power, it’s easy to forget how well each team played defensively down the stretch in the playoffs. The Pats enter off a 37-31 win over KC, holding Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes to just 16 of 31 and sacking him four times. The Rams were forced by the Saints for 45 points in the first meeting between the clubs, but last week LA looked great defensively in its eventual 26-23 OT victory. Key Trends: - New England has seen the total go under the number in 11 of 17 as a favorite this year. - LA has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four off an upset win as a road dog. The verdict: Look for the two week lay off to benefit the defensive units and play the under in the Super Bowl! |
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01-20-19 | Rams v. Saints UNDER 57.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under Rams/Saints. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Improved defensive play from each team. The Rams beat a dangerous Cowboys team 30-22 last week. I’d argue that the LA defense “stole the show” in that one though. The Saints overcame a 14 point hole in the first quarter to edge past the Eagles last weekend. Drew Brees had 301 yards and two TD’s, but after the slow start, it was the Saints’ defense which “brought that one home” for the home side. The Rams will be committed to the run offensively after posting 273 rushing yards in last week’s win. Known for the high-flying offensive play in the regular season, this one has Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under the number in six of eight on the road already this year. - The Rams have seen the total dip under the number in four of their last five in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 28 or more points (lost in Week 9 to the Saints.) - New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as the favorite this year. - The Saints have seen the total go under in four of five already this year after allowing 14 points or less last game. The verdict: While the first matchup between these clubs flew over, this one has all the makings of a lower-scoring defensive battle this time around. Play the under! |
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01-06-19 | Chargers v. Ravens UNDER 41.5 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 146 h 41 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under Chargers/Ravens. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Ravens game-plan. With Melvin Gordon III injured for LA (if he does suit up, clearly he won’t be at 100% form), LA’s offensive game-plan becomes one-dimensional. The Ravens were among the league leaders in most defensive categories. They record a sack about once every eight plays and also have the fifth best opponents’ passer rating at 73.15. Baltimore also has as many INT’s as TD passes allowed (6). Baltimore will be looking to “manage” the game with LaMar Jackson while on offense, so as to limit Philip Rivers tie on the field of play. Key Trends: - LA has seen the total go under in ten of its last 12 following a road victory. - Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 following a divisional contest. The verdict: The situation and numbers point to the under as the correct call! |
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12-30-18 | Eagles v. Redskins OVER 41.5 | 24-0 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 32 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the over Eagles/Skins. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Win and their in. The Eagles have been playing great with Nick Foles as QB, but not only do they need to win today, but they’ll need the Vikes to lose to Chicago as well for a playoff spot. With the visitors pushing the pace from start to finish, I think this one will fly well above the posted number: “The biggest thing is we have to take care of business,” Eagles’ defensive tackle Fletcher Cox assessed earlier in the week. “We have a game to play and obviously somebody might say what’s happening, but at the end of the day we have to win. We have to win this game right here in order to get into the postseason and that’s what’s really most important to this locker room right now.” Key Trends: - Philadelphia has seen the total go over the number in four of five on the road already this year. - The Redskins have seen the total fly over in seven of their last ten as a home dog. The verdict: Play the over. |
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12-30-18 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 41 | Top | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 10 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over Cowboys/Giants. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Manning’s last hurrah? If this is Eli Manning’s final game as QB for New York, he’s going to want to put on a show for the home side fans. Manning is also out to avenge a 20-13 road loss to Dallas in Week 2. With the Cowboys expected to rest most of their starters with nothing to win or lose here, I’m expecting the legendary New York pivot to air it out early and often. Key Trends: - New York has seen the total go over in both games already this year in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. - The Giants have seen the total go over in five of their last seven as a home favorite. The verdict: The situation and trends are pointing to a shootout. Play the over. |
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12-16-18 | Raiders v. Bengals UNDER 46.5 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 92 h 46 m | Show | |
Ricky's 8* play on the under Raiders/Bengals. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Motivation levels. What can be the motivation for either of these sides? They can’t play the role of spoiler, because neither will be playing in the postseason anyways. I expect each to simply “go through the motions” and this becomes my “key angle” for this contest. Key Trends: - Raiders have seen the total go under in seven of their last ten off a home victory. - Cincinnati has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a home favorite of three points or less. The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, play the under. |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 92 h 47 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the over Dolphins/Vikings. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Desperation. Both teams still have a shot at their respective Wild Card spots. It’s now or never as neither can take the foot off the gas at this point. I expect each to push the pace and this becomes my “key angle” for this contest. Key Trends: - Miami has seen the total go over in nine of 14 off a division game. - The Dolphins have seen the total go over in four of their last five off an upset win as a home underdog. - Minnesota has seen the total go over in three of its last four after a loss by 14 points or more. The verdict: Miami comes in off a thrilling last second win over the Patriots and I expect that offensive momentum to get carried over here. Play the over. |
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12-10-18 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 46 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 36 h 0 m | Show |
Ricky's 10* play on the under. Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. - Game significance. Both teams currently hold the NFC wild card spot and each will be desperate for a victory here to hold onto that position. On the short week, this one has the feel of a classic lower-scoring “chess match” on Thursday night. Key Trends: - Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in 10 of its last 15 as an underdog. - Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 25 as a favorite. The verdict: Take the under. |