My 10* Total of the Week is on UC Riverside/Pacific Over at 6:00 ET.

My 10* Total of the Week is on Arz/SF Over at 4:05 ET.

San Francisco entered last Monday night's game as the NFL's lone unbeaten but fell 27-24 (OT) in one of 2019's most exciting games. The 49ers look to rebound from that loss when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The two NFC West rivals will be meeting for teh second time in three weeks, as the 49ers won 28-25 at Phoenix in a Week 9 Thursday game on Halloween. It may come as a surprise to many that Arizona had beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times,prior to taht contest.

Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ saw his team open 0-3-1 in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7. However, to be fair, those three wins came over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 4-24). The Cards have followed their three-game winning streak by losing 31-9 at New Orleans, 28-25 at home to San Francisco and 30-27 at New Orleans. Kyler Murray (last year's No. 1 pick) has lived up to expectations, completing 63.9% for an average of 290.4 YPG through the air. He has 12 TD passes and just five INTs in 360 attempts (great stat for a rookie!). He also leads the team in rushing, gaining 351 yards on 5.9 YPA. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald leads the team with 50 receptions for 556 yards despite slowing down, while second-year WR Christian Kirk is on the rise, after catching six passes for career-highs of 138 yards and three TDs in last week's loss to Tampa Bay (he's missed three games but has 40 catches and counting). On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona has struggled most of the season, allowing 28.1 PPG (27th) on 412.5 YPG (31st).

The 49ers were overdue to lose but now the test is to bounce back. Jimmy Garoppolo's stats do NOT match Murray's as he's averaging 231.9 YPG passing (Murray averages 60 more YPG) and his ratio of 14-8 is surely no better than Murray's 12-5. Let's not even mention that Garoppolo has 33 rushing yards to Murray's 351 (OK, I did!). Of course, Garoppolo 'hangs his hat' on his 14-3 record as a starting QB (as well he should). A cause for concern is TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) could miss his second straight game with knee and ankle injuries, while WR Emmanuel Sanders (13 for 161, two TDs in three games with the team) will be a game-time decision after suffering a rib injury during Monday's loss. The 49ers are averaging 161.8 YPG on the ground (2nd) but were held to just 87 yards by Seattle (3.2 YPC). However, it's hard to imagine San Francisco NOT running the ball well against the Cards. Despite Monday's loss, the 49ers still come in allowing just 14.6 PPG on 251.6 YPG, ranking second in the league in both categories.

What to expect? The San Francisco D is terrific but as I noted in taking Seattle Nov Game of the Month) last Monday, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense (note: San Francisco has allowed 52 points its last two games). I noted above that Garoppolo stats don't quite measure up to his gaudy W/L record as a starter but I won't ignore that he had no problem against this Arizona defense just 18 days ago, ripping them for 317 yards and four TD passes (all by the end of the start of the 4Q). I noted Arizona's sad-sack defense numbers already but will add that in losing THREE in a row, the Cards have allowed 31, 28 and 30 points. I see little reason why the 49ers won;t score easily on Arizona here (30-plus points) but will add that the Cards never gave up in that Week 9 loss to San Francisco, scoring 11 points in the 4th quarter to earn the 'back door' cover. I will not be taking the points in this one but I will go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on SA/Orl Over at 7:05 ET.

The San Antonio Spurs opened the season 4-1 but a warning sign was their 1-4 ATS mark. It was more than telling, as the Spurs 'limp' into Orlando having lost FIVE of six since that 4-1 start, while the team's ATS woes have continued. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS during the 1-5 SU stretch, giving them a 2-9 ATS mark in the team's 5-6 start. The Spurs will look to salvage the finale of a two-game trip Friday in Orlando, coming off 129-114 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, Wednesday's impressive 112-97 victory against visiting Philadelphia, improved the Magic to 2-1 on their current five-game homestand.

San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.1-4.9-54.8) and PF Aldridge (17.9 & 5.9) give the team a solid "Big 2." That said, Aldridge has been an enigma, averaging 25 points on 58.6 percent from the floor in his team's five wins but just 12 points on 43.9 percent in its six losses. PG Dejounte Murray (10.9-7.3-4.7) looks fully recovered from his knee injury and is off his minutes restrictions. He joins FOUR other Spurs (no counting DeRozan and Aldridge), scoring in double digits. The group includes guards Forbes (14.3), Mills (12.0) and White (11.3), plus SF Green (10.7 & 7.1). Tre Lyles starts at center and while he's not much of a scoring threat (4.6), he's averaging 8.0 RPG in only about 20 minutes.

Orlando ranks first in the NBA in holding opponents to 99.1 PPG but is last in scoring offense (99.4 PPG) on 42.1% shooting (29th). However, after being held to 99 points or fewer in each of their first SEVEN games, the Magic have scored at least 102 in FOUR straight contests. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.8 & 11.5) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.2) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one plus Fournier (15.3) is a scorer on the perimeter. Those four have started all 11 games, while guards Augustin (9.5 & 4.5 APG) and Fultz (9.5) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting six and Augustin, five.

Here's where I'm going with this. "Once Upon a Time," the Pop-coached Spurs were among the NBA's best defensive teams but San Antonio ranks 23rd in points allowed (114.2) and 26trh in defensive FG percentage (47.5). In the team's current three-game skid, the Spurs are allowing 125.7 points and saw the Timberwolves scored 40 points in TWO different quarters on Wednesday. Getting back to Orlando, I noted the team's dramatic offensive improvement lately and putting a 'number' to that improvement shows the Magic averaging 109.5 PPG over its last four contests. This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Orl Over at 6:05 ET.

The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but will visit Orlando on Sunday, winners of FIVE of its last six. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but Friday's 118-86 win over Memphis gives them just a 3-6 start to the current season.

The Pacers come to Orlando with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) are both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Indiana placed SEVEN players in double figures in Friday's 112-106 win over Detroit. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has carried the load through the ups and downs of the current season, averaging 21.0-5.1-9.0. The 6-11 Sabonis had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season, averaging 19.9 & 12.6. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 17.9 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, with McDermott scoring 33 and Sampson 24, the last two games.

Orlando ranks 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 98.2 PPG but is last in scoring offense (97.7 PPG). However, the Magic finally showed what the team can be when the shots fall on Friday. Orlando routed Memphis 118-86, holding the Grizzlies to 37.2 percent from the floor, in line with the team's excellent defensive play all season but Orlando also had a breakout offensive effort, The starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic plus forwards Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac combined to go 25-of-38 from the floor (65.8%) while scoring 62 points. We've got really good defensive players on this team and the one thing we can hang our hats on is knowing that we can defend," Gordon told reporters. "That (defensive) side of the floor, we know that we can handle pretty much anybody. But it's nice to see our offense get going as well."

"Turned the corner? I don't know, but we did play better," Magic shooting guard Evan Fournier (14.8) told reporters. "We had more easy baskets and that's why we scored. We've been saying that the offense hasn't been good, but it's been because we don't get enough good shots. Tonight, we were able to create a lot of good shots and that was the key." Orlando has been a dead “under” team this season with a great defense coupled with an offense which has been awful. However, there is little reason to think the team's "O" will continue to struggle. Repeating from above, the Magic were a playoff team last year and returned the core of that team intact and healthy. Orlando has gone 'under" in SEVEN of nine games this season (one over and one push) but the Magic scored 106 points in a Wednesday loss at Dallas (team's lone over of the season) and then 118 points Friday (that game stayed under only because Memphis scored 86 points, three 'TDs' lower than the team's scoring average of 108.7 PPG on the season). As for Indiana, the Pacers come into this contest averaging 113.5 PPG in winning FIVE of their last six. It's rare these days to see a NBA over/under number 'hugging' around 200 but that's the case here. My bet says this number is WAAAY too low, based on current form. Go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Buf/Cle Over at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home.

OK, I am NOT about to take the Browns but don't they have to be 'juiced' playing just their second game in Cleveland since Week 3. Buffalo does not have a prolific offense but scoring against the Browns has come fairly easy for most opponents. Yes, Buffalo has a terrific D but the Browns have to believe that if they are to have a chance to win, they will HAVE to find a way into the end zone. The low Over/Under number makes this a game that's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Nevada/SD State Over at 10:30 ET.

Rocky Long played QB for New Mexico and returned to his alma mater as its head coach in 1998. He led the Lobos to just the school's second bowl appearance since 1961 in 2002, the first of FIVE bowls bids in seven years. He quit as head coach after the 2008 season but resurfaced at SD St in 2011 and has led the Aztecs to EIGHT consecutive bowls. At 7-1 (4-1 in the MWC's West Division), the 24th-ranked Aztecs will be 'bowling' for the NINTH straight season. Nevada's Mike Norvell is in just his third season with Nevada but after a 3-9 first year in 2017, led the Wolf Pack to an 8-5 record last season, including an Arizona Bowl win. Nevada checks in at 5-4 in 2019 with three games remaining, needing ONE win to be bowl-eligible once again.

The Wolf Pack snapped a two-game slide with a 21-10 victory over New Mexico last week behind freshman QB Carson Strong's solid effort. Strong won the starting QB job and played well as Nevada won two of its first three (had 295 and 299 yards passing in the two wins). However, he lost playing time over the next four games to Solano and Henry. However, Strong was back at QB in a 31-3 loss at Wyoming on Oct 26, but threw for 247 yards. He then was very good in Nevada's 21-10 win over New Mexico last Saturday, passing for a season-high 305 yards with two TDs. His return is GOOD NEWS! Still, Nevada's defense is a big concern, allowing 34.6 PPG (116th), including 41.2 PPG on the road.

San Diego State joined the AP top-25 on Sunday. The No. 24 Aztecs have a commanding lead in the MWC West Division (no other team is better than .500) and while the MWC title is the team's main focus, finishing as the top-ranked Group of Five conference team (which would earn a New Year's Six bowl game), wouldn't be 'chopped liver.' Senior QB Ryan Agnew has modest numbers (63.9% for 1,427 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs) but he's 13-2 as a starter. It sure helps that SDSU's defense is one of the nation's best, allowing only 14.1 PPG (8th) on 283.6 YPG (12th).

At first blush one could say 'Under' but be careful. SDSU's offense is averaging only 21.8 PPG but there is little reason to think that the Aztecs WON'T be able to move the ball and score against Nevada's porous defense. The Wolf Pack surely know that their D cannot be expected to do so, meaning Strong and the offense have to realize that any chance of winning 'hangs' on its ability to score. I 'LOVE' going under these sub-40 over/under numbers in CFB and note that the finals scores between these two schools the last three seasons have averaged 59.7 points, about three TDs HIGHER than the over/under number in this contest. Look out below, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Cle/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, as they were expecting to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season enters its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-5, after losing their THIRD consecutive game 27-13 at New England last Sunday. The Browns visit Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos. Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos D is allowing 18.9 PPG (4th) on 304.5 YPG (4th) but the team's offense (15.6 PPG, ranking 28th) has kept them from doing any better than 2-6.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 57.6 percent with 6 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 67.8. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (738 yards on 5.5 YPC with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry, who have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play. The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (22nd).

Denver QB Joe Flacco was diagnosed with a herniated disk in his neck after last Sunday's 15-13 to the Colts, a contest in which he complained about the team's conservative play-calling. Whether or not Flacco was right, we know that he has failed to eclipse more than 213 yards passing in each of his last four games and has thrown just six TDs (five INTs) on the season. Denver's running game is averaging only 110.0 YPG (16th) but the Broncos do own a pair of quality RBs in Lindsay (492 yards / 4.5 YPC) and Freeman (359 yards / 4.1 YPC). Flacco's herniated disk will sideline him six weeks at a minimum, so the Broncos will turn to Brandon Allen, a fourth-year pro from Arkansas who will make his first start since Jan 2, 2016, against Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.

Allen becomes the SIXTH different starting QB for the Broncos since the start of the 2016 season (Elway sure KNOWS a QB when he sees one!). "First of all, Brandon is a very intelligent dude,” RB Phillip Lindsay said. “I’m excited to see what he has to offer. I think he’s going to move around a lot, and I think he’s going to take shots and stuff.” Speaking of Lindsay, he joins Freeman as a solid 1-2 RB Denver combo that will face a Cleveland rush D allowing 143.3 YPG on the ground (29th). I expect Denver to be successful against Cleveland's sad-sack defense but I also see a good (possibly excellent) performance from Mayfield, now that Browns realize 2019 we be another in a long line of disappointments. This VERY low Over/Under number gives us a strong play on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Cincy/East Carolina Over at 7:00 ET.

No. 17 Cincinnati (6-1 / 3-0 AAC) is riding a five-game winning streak and coming off a bye week as the Bearcats travel to Greenville, NC to taken on the East Carolina Pirates (3-5 / 0-3 AAC). Cincy is 3-0 and owns a win over 3-1 UCF, which puts the Bearcats in position as "the favorite" in the East Division of the AAC, as well as in the hunt for a “New Year’s Six” bowl. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and comes into this contest on a three-game slide,

Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. QB Desmond Ridder is hardly special but he has thrown a TD pass in all but one game on the season and has 14 TD passes against a modest five INTs. The running is slightly above average (173.4 YPG ranks 57th) and Cincy is averaging 28.6 PPG, despite being shut out 42-0 at Ohio St. Cincy's defense is allowing 20.4 PPG (24) and that average dips to 16.8 PPG, without the Ohio St debacle. The Bearcats' success on D has come with using, on average, 20 players per game. Cincinnati ranks second in the nation in turnovers gained and has recorded FIVE in each of its last two games

ECU's three wins have come over Gardner-Webb, William & Mary and Old Dominion. QB Holton Ahlers struggled once again in the team's 45-20 loss to 4USF, failing to throw a TD and being replaced late in the fourth quarter. He's completing just 55.6% for 1,672 yards with 7 TDs and 7 INTs. He gets little help fom his running game (155.6 YPG ranks 80th) and ECU's defense is giving up 28.2 PPG (72nd) but that number is deceiving. The Pirates have allowed just 37 points in its three wins (see above for the quality, or lack threreof, of those 'victims'), while allowing an average of 37.8 PPG in the team's five losses.

ECU is coming off back-to-back games in which its defense has allowed 41 points on 611 yards and 45 points on 525 yards, which sets up nicely for my 'over' play. Throw out the 42-0 loss at Ohio St and Cincy has averaged just over 33 PPG and there is no reason (coming off a bye), that the Bearcats will have ANY trouble scoring against the ECU defense. The Bearcats will surely remember losing the last time here (2017), when they fell 48-20 to an ECU team which would finish 3-9. Cincy took ECU 'to the woodshed' last year at home, winning 56-6 (note: Ridder threw for 335 yards and 4 TDPs in that one!). East Carolina is still looking for its first AAC win and it won't come here. I expect Cincy to roll, after the Bearcats looked listless in winning just 24-13 at home vs Tulsa (gained only 317 yards), two Saturday's ago. Cincy has scored more than 40 points just once in 2019 (52-14 at Marshall) but I see them topping that total here, meaning this game flies over!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Total of the Month is on NYJ/Jax Over at 1:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were in Cincinnati last Sunday to take on the winless Bengals. The Jags had forced just ONE turnover in their first six games but got the Bengals to cough up the ball FOUR times, as they snapped a two-game slide with a 27-17 win. The 3-4 Jags return home this Sunday to face the 1-5 Jets, who are coming off an embarrassing 33-0 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday, a contest in which they turned the ball over SIX times. Seems like the perfect set-up for the Jags to even their record at 4-4.

Sam Darnold made a "triumphant return" for the Jets against Dallas in Week 6, as he led New York to its first win of the season, 24-22. The second-year pro from USC completed 23 of 32 for 338 yards with two TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 113.8. However, his "15 minutes of fame" lasted all of one week, as he completed 11 of 32 for 86 yards with four INTs against the Pats, 'earning' him a QB rating of 3.6. He also lost a fumble plus failed to control a high snap that wound up as a safety for the Pats. To add insult to injury, sideline microphones caught him saying he was "seeing ghosts" after his third INT.. "I just gotta see the field a lot better," Darnold told reporters. "That's kinda what that means. It was a rough day out there, rough night out there, and obviously I gotta be better and learn from the mistakes. But we will get better." Can the Jets get any worse? One positive in the Jets' loss to the Patriots was RB Le'Veon Bell's season-high 70 yards on 15 carries, against a New England defense that ranks 1st in points allowed (6.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (223.1 YPG).

"It's what Jaguar defense is all about," linebacker Myles Jack told reporters after the win at Cincy. "We create turnovers. We play physical. We've been playing good defense. We just haven't been able to get those turnovers that we needed. So, once we're able to create that, I feel like it puts our offense in easier situations, do their thing, and allow them to get into a rhythm. It's a great feeling, man. It's a great feeling to see that ball going the other way." Nick Foles, who suffered a broken clavicle in the first game of the season, finally returned to practice on a limited basis this week but he is not eligible to come off injured reserve until Week 9. That means the QB duties will remain with rookie Gardner Minshew, who has 10 TD passes and just TWO interceptions in six starts. He is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,697 yards. He's ably complemented by a rushing attack averaging 140.1YPG (5th) on 5.1 YPC. The ground game is led by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette, who has 715 yards on 5.0 YPC.

I do NOT see the New York defense, which allows 26.0 PPG (23rd), reigning in Minshew and Fournette. However, I HAVE to believe Darnold is capable of a bounce-back. This over/under is tantalizingly low and just like my Sep Total of the Month (Jax/Den Over 37.5, which ended 26-24), I'm Goin' Over with the Jags in this one against the Jets.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Cal/Utah Over at 10:00 ET.

The Cal Golden Bears opened 4-0 and were ranked 15th in the AP poll when they hosted ASU for a Friday night game on Sep 27. The Bears lost that one 24-17, as starting QB Chase Garbers suffered a shoulder injury. Devon Modster has started the team's last two games, a 17-7 loss at Oregon and 21-7 loss at home to Oregon St, in which Modster was forced to leave in the fourth quarter with an apparent lower-body injury. Utah has opened 7-0 (3-1 in Pac-12 play) with QB Tyler Huntley starting each one. However, he has been unable to finish several contests, including his departure in the third quarter last Saturday with an apparent leg injury. The Bears and Utes meet Saturday night in Sal Lake City with the Bears hoping to avoid a 1-4 start in league play, while the 12th-ranked Utes are battling USC in the Pac-12 South (both are 3-1). There have been no early-week updates on Modster and if can’t play, true freshman Spencer Brasch will make his first start after completing 2-of-6 passes for 24 yards and an interception in the loss to the Beavers. Cal's offense ranks 1116th in both scoring (19.9 PPG) and total yards (324.0 YPG), so I'm not sure the QB situation is all that important. Cal's D is strong, allowing 18.7 PPG (20th) on 359.6 YPG (48th). Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has stuck to the program policy of refusing to comment on player injuries, during his weekly news conference. However, Huntley told the Salt Lake Tribune “I’m playing” following a team weightlifting session Monday. If not, either Drew Lisk or Jason Shelley will get teh nod. I sure want Huntley to play, as he's Pac-12’s top dual-threats. He's leads all Pac-12 QBs with 229 yards rushing (4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and has thrown for 1,564 yards, nine TDs and only one INT. Running back Zack Moss (613 YR / 6.6 YPC / 8 TDs) has been in and out of the lineup all season with assorted injury issues, but the Pac-12’s leading rusher (102.2 yards per game) came back from a brief departure during the contest last Saturday to rush for 99 yards and a pair of TDs. Utah's offense is overlooked because of it's outstanding defense but the Utes are averaging 32.9 PPG (42nd) on 449.4 YPG (32nd). That defense is holding opponents to only 11.7 PPG (6th) on 252.1 YPG (4th). I read a preview of this contest the other day and it began, "Points could be in short supply when No. 12 Utah hosts California in Salt Lake City on Saturday. Both teams have built their identities this season around rugged defenses." The statement is true and while I don't expect an onslaught of points, this over/under number is among the VERY-lowest posted all season in NCAAF 2019. Utah is 4-0 at home this season (averaging 31.2 PPG) and has won EIGHT in a row at Rice-Eccles Stadium, averaging 39.5 PPG in those eight wins. Cal's D is strong but Utah has proven it can consistently put up points at home. Let me add that Cal is on an 8-0 ATS run as a visiting underdog and to cover here, will likely need to score MORE than its seasonal average to keep that ATS run alive. No trading points back and forth here, but since Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, these schools have met FOUR times. The average final has totaled 56.3 PPG. Even two TDs less than that would allow us to ca$h here! Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Cin Over at 1:00 ET.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked very ordinary during the Jaguars' 13-6 loss to New Orleans last Sunday, as Jacksonville was held to a season-low 226 yards and just a pair of FGs. Minshew entered last Sunday's contest completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 255.8 YPG with nine TDs and just one INT. However, he went just 14 of 29 for only 163 yards without a TD pass and had one interception. The good news for Minshew is, the last three QBs who faced the Bengals had career days (see below). RB Leonard Fournette is healthy in 2019 (584 YR / 5.1 YPC and 26 catches for 189 yards) and he registered 118 yards from scrimmage last week to join Cleveland's Nick Chubb as the only players in the NFL with at least 85 in each of their first six games this season. Jacksonville's defense is allowing 21.8 PPG (13th) on 372.7 YPG (23rd).

Brandon Wilson got the Bengals off to a good start last Sunday, returning the opening kickoff 92 yards for a TD, but the team was unable to find the end zone again until late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of each of their last three games. QB Andy Dalton is completing 61.7% for 1,647 yards with seven TDs and five INTs plus gets NO help from a running game averaging an NFL-low 56.5 YPG. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 286.5 PPG (26th) on 426.0 YPG (31st).

The Bengals won't go 0-16, right? However, I'm not sure this is a the game they'll get a "W." Expect a bounce-back game from Minshew, against a very porous Cincy defense. After all, Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards (236) and rush for 150 (152) in a single game last week against the Bengals. The prior week, Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards without an interception and in Cincy's Week 4 MNF game against the Steelers, Mason Rudolph threw for a career high 229 yards with two TDs. Also, RB Fournette gets to run against a Cincy rush D that ranks 32nd by allowing 184.5 YPG on 5.3 YPC (also ranks last in the NFL). The Jags will score against this D and look for Cincy's Dalton to "air it out." He has a non-existent running game, so what's Plan B? This game goes OVER this modest number easily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Kentucky /Georgia Over at 6:00 ET.

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Dal/NJY Over at 4:25 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week."

QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.”

The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th).

However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The Dallas D has been good this season but I'm expecting the Jets to be able to move the ball and score. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I do believe this is a GREAT spot to play this contest OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Total of the Week is on Navy/Tulsa Over at 7:30 ET.

My 10* NFL Total of the Week (5) is on Chi/Oak Over at 1:00 ET.

Khalil Mack will have a few incentives when he takes the field for The Chicago Bears hosted their bitter rival (the Green Bay Packers) to open NFL 2019 on a Thursday night (Sep 5) and lost 10-3. Chicago then won its Week 2 game in Denver, 16-14 by making a 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. Heading into the team's MNF Week 3 game at Washington, QB Mitchell Trubisky, the team's "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft," had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions. The Bears beat the sad-sack Redskins 31-15 in that MNF game and then their defense dominated in a 16-6 home win in Week 4 over the Vikings. Now it's off to London for 3-1 Chicago for a meeting with the 2-2 Oakland Raiders.Oakland is hoping to build off a 31-24 triumph at Indianapolis last Sunday. The Raiders ran 188 yards on the ground in the win, with rookie Josh Jacobs gaining 79 on 17 carries, as they avoided a third straight loss while playing the second of five consecutive contests away from Oakland. The Raiders will be playing in London for the second straight season and internationally for the FIFTH time in six years.

Trubisky suffered a left shoulder injury during Chicago's first possession last week and is expected to miss this game. It's hard to say he'll be missed all that much. Chase Daniel will be under center after completing 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown vs the Vikings in relief. Daniel is a 10-year vet and will make his third start in two seasons with Chicago. He went a combined 53 of 76 (69.7%) for 515 yards with three TDs and two INTs in two starts last season (a win at Detroit and loss at the NY Giants). The Bears bring one of the NFL's best defenses to London, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 290.8 YPG (5th).

Oakland's Derek Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes and has been greatly helped by Jacobs, a rookie RB from Alabama. Jacobs has 307 rushing yards this season (5.0 YPC), eclipsing the team record for most by a player in his first four career games. TE Darren Waller grabbed a share of an NFL record last week a swell, increasing his reception total to 33, tying Antonio Gates (2007) for most by a tight end in his team's first four contests of a season. Oakland's defense is another story, as the Raiders rank 25th in allowing 25.5 PPG on 390.2 YPG (alos 25th).

Oakland's 31-24 win at Indy last week makes them just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS on the road since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. The 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Again, this is a neutral site game but it's also a 10:00 a.m. Pacific time start, games in which the Raiders have struggled. I expect the Bears to have little trouble scoring here plus I also think the Raiders' offense is jelling. With this tantalizingly low over/under number, the play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Ohio/Buffalo Over at 3:30 ET.

Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has since lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 loss at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 2, entering that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns (note: ULL is 4-1 & 5-0 ATS in 2019). The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and now begin their MAC schedule with EIGHT straight games, including FOUR weekday games in November.

Ohio begins its MAC 'journey' in Buffalo against the Bulls. Buffalo rebounded from four straight non-winning seasons (2014-17) to go 10-4 in 2018, a season which ended with a heart-breaking 30-29 loss in the MAC championship game vs Northern Illinois and then a 42-32 loss to Troy in the Dollar General Bowl. The Bulls opened 2-2 in non-league play but as a small road favorite in their MAC opener last Saturday, lost 34-20 to Miami, Ohio.Buffalo gained 309 yards rushing (two players topped 100 yards) but had just 89 yards through the air, as QB Matt Myers completed just 4 of 16 passes while throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice.

As bad a start as Ohio has had, the Bobcats have yet to play a MAC game, so this game can be seen a a "new beginning." The problem is, this is arguably Solich's worst defensive team. The Bobcats are allowing 29.5 PPG (88th) on 464.0 YPG (116th). The Buffalo D also leaves much to be desired, as after beating FCS Robert Morris 38-10, the Bulls have allowed 34.0 PPG over the last four games. The home team has won NINE straight games in this series and the Bulls (winners of the MAC East in 2018) will no doubt remember losing 52-17 in Athens last November (note: Bulls entered that game 9-1). I'm NOT saying the Bobcats will not be competitive but they will need to score often to do so. The Play is OVER.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb?

Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times.

Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests.

It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday.

Yes, I like Denver but what I like even more is the Over. I really like what I see with Minshew and as noted, Denver's D seems to still be a "work in progress." Conditions will be near-perfect in Denver and this is one of just TWO totals under 40. Getting back to Denver's great home record in September, let me add that in those 13 straight Sep home wins (before the team's Week 2 loss in 2019), the Broncos had averaged 29.2 PPG. I'm "all in" on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Indiana/Mich St Over at 3:30 ET.

Michigan State (3-1 / 1-0 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its 10-7 home loss to Arizona St on Sep 14, with a solid 31-10 win at Northwestern last Saturday in the team's conference opener. MSU dropped out of the AP top-25 after losing to ASU but is back in (barely, at No. 25) after the win over the Wildcats. Speaking of bounce-back performances, Indiana (3-1 / 0-1 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season last Saturday, limiting Connecticut's offense to just 145 total yards in a 38-3 win. That was quite an improvement from Indiana's 51-10 loss at Ohio St on Sep 14, when the Buckeyes rolled up 520 yards. 

Peyton Ramsey was Indiana's starting QB in both 2017 and 2018 but he lost his starting job to redshirt freshman Michael Penix Jr. entering 2019. Penix threw for 326 yards but threw two INTs in Indiana's 34-24 season-opening over Ball St. Up next was Eastern Illinois and after throwing for 197 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in the first half, Ramsey came in and went 13 of 14 for 226 yards with two TDs (0 INTs) in a 51-0 rout. However, Penix has been out with an undisclosed injury the last two games. Ramsey had no success vs Ohio St buthe was near perfect against UConn, completing 23-of-27 passes for 247 yards and three TDs (no INTs). Indiana's defense has been just fine against Ball St, Eastern Illinois and UConn but as noted, got overwhelmed by Ohio St.

Michigan St does not own an offense in the class of Ohio St but except for its awful showing against ASU, the Spartans have averaged 36.7 PPG in their other three wins. Brian Lewerke is a senior QB and he's completing 62.3% with seven TDs and only one INT, while passing for 1,025 yards. RB Collins has added357 yards (5.9 YPC) and is a nice complement. Mark Dantonio's teams always play excellent defense and this year's team is allowing 11.0 PPG (10th) on 228.5 YPG (3rd).

Michigan St has dominated this series the last 20 meetings, winning 17! I don't see that changing here, as I believe the MSU offense will have plenty of success against the Indiana defense. Not Ohio St-like success, but I'll take the team's 36.7 PPG average excluding the ASU game. Consider these two factoids. This is Mark Dantonio's 13th season at East Lansing and MSU has played Indiana 10 times in his first 12, averaging 40.3 PPG. As for Lewerke, let me add that only ONE Michigan State QB has thrown for 6,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 in his career (Drew Stanton). Lewerke will join Stanton with 39 more yards rushing. My point? He's better than most think. Yes, MSU's defense is strong but Indiana head coach Tom Allen is keeping the Spartans guessing as to which QB will start, Ramsey or Penix. MSU has dominated the series the last two decades but Indiana owns one win over the last three meetings, winning by three in OT (2016), before losing by eight and 14 the last two. I expect the Hoosiers to surprise by moving the ball (and getting into the end zone), more than most think. This total is low enough to 'sail' over.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Rutgers/Michigan Over at 12:00 ET.

Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh so he could return the Wolverines to the "top of the college football world." However, that has NOT quite been n the case. Harbaugh is 0-4 against Ohio State and Michigan's 35-17 loss ('ass kicking') at Wisconsin was just another in a growing list of Michigan failures on the road against ranked opponents in Harbuagh's tenure. The Wolverines fell behind 28-0 at the half in Madison and when Michigan finally scored (with just 2:03 remaining in the third quarter), Wisconsin had already scored 35 points. The Michigan defense was shredded for 487 yards, including a WHOPPING 359 on the ground (6.3 YPC). Michigan returns to Ann Arbor Saturday to take on Rutgers, which checks in at 1-2 (0-1 Big Ten). Rutgers opened the 2019 season with a 48-21 win over UMass, ending an 11-game losing streak but has followed with a 30-0 loss at Iowa and a 30-16 home loss to BC.

The Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014 and after going 8-5 (3-5 in Big Ten) that first season, have lost 32 of their last 36 conference games, including 13 in a row heading into Saturday's contest. There was some good news coming out of last weeks loss to BC, as QB Artur Sitkowski had one of the best games of his young career. The sophomore QB completed 23-of-33 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown. Head coach Chris Ash revealed he will get the start against Michiga,  as McLane Carter remains in the concussion protocol. Michigan QB Shea Patterson has looked uncomfortable in the team's new offense and both of his TD passes came after Michigan was down 35-0. He finished 14-of-32 for 219 yards with one interception plus lost a fumble. Backup QB Dylan McCaffrey went 3-of-8 for 40 yards before he was knocked out of the game by a high hit that drew a targeting penalty. He we will miss Saturday's game with a concussion.

Here's the bottom line. Rutgers is simply in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Maybe Ash could have counted on Harbaugh to "go easy" on him but NOT coming off last week's HUGELY disappointing 18-point loss at Wisconsin. Harbaugh got to Michigan in 2015 and the year before, Rutgers beat Michigan 26-24. Harbaugh's 'blasted' the Scarlet Knights in each of his first four meetings, averaging a WHOPPING 51.0 PPG. I can see Michigan "going over" all by themselves in this one but I also think we'll get some points out of Rutgers, after seeing Sitkowski throw for 304 yards against BC last Saturday. Michigan will score early and often (and may not stop), but watch for Rutgers to get a couple (or three) TDs of its own.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on NO/Sea Over at 4:25 ET.

My 10* Total of the Week is on Mich State/Northwestern Over at 12:00 ET.

Michigan State and Northwestern meet at Evanston in the Big Ten opener for each school this Saturday at 12 noon ET. The Spartans are coming off a disappointing 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State last weekend, while the Wildcats earned their first win of the season last Saturday, topping UNLV 30-14. Michigan State did very little offensively against the Sun Devils, after putting up 51 points the previous Saturday against Western Michigan, while gaining 582 yards. MSU scored just once on ASU and then had a potential game-tying FG get wiped off the board in the final seconds due to a penalty. Northwestern opened the season with a 17-7 loss at Stanford on Aug 31, gaining a pathetic 210 yards. That performance looks even worse now, as Stanford has allowed 45 points in each of its last two games, while allowing 492 and 545 yards, respectively. The Wildcats beat UNLV 30-14 last Saturday at home, rolling up 441 yards, including 276 on the ground (5.5 YPC).

MSU had plenty complaints about the officiating in the ASU loss, as the Spartans outgained the Sun Devils 404-to-216 in total yards. 10 penalties surely hurt but so did THREE missed FGs attempts and poor execution in critical points of the game. QB Brian Lewerke passed for 291 yards but did not throw a TD, after passing fo 314 yards and three TDs vs Western Michigan. The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging a modest 157.3 YPG (81st), with Elijah Collins leading the way with 281 yards (6.4 YPC) and one TD. MSU's defense is a good as ever, allowing 11.3 PPG (12th) on 216.0 YPG (3rd), including 23.3 YPG on the ground (1st).

The Wildcats ran for 276 yards on the ground against UNLV (5.5 YPC) but as noted, the MSU run defense is pretty good. The key for Northwestern will be QB Hunter Johnson. He transferred from Clemson in 2017 and sat out last year. The Wildcats are counting on him to fulfill his promise, as he was rated as a five-star recruit and was ranked among the top recruits in the 2017 class. Johnson was ranked by Rivals.com as the number 18 overall player (across every position) in the nation and was the 2016 Rivals 5-star challenge quarterback MVP.

Northwestern has won its last THREE meetings against Michigan State and FOUR of the last five, overall. Northwestern’s record as an underdog (14-5-1 ATS its last 20) and Dantonio’s 3-10 ATS mark as a road favorite point to the Wildcats. That said, I like the OVER even more. The total is currently below 40 and note that the Wildcats have averaged 340 passing yards in their last three meetings with MSU (expect a breakout game by Johnson). Also, let's NOT forget that MSU scored 51 points on 582 yards against Western Michigan. Then last Saturday, penalties, missed FGs and poor execution at critical points kept MSU to just seven points despite gaining over 400 yards. This game starts early (12 noon ET) and goes OVER before the start of the 4th quarter.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late-Breaker is on LAD/NYM Over at 7:05 ET.

The New York Mets are fighting to stay in the National League wild card race and welcomed the NL's best team to Citi Field this weekend for a three-game series. The Mets lost Friday's opener 9-2 to Clayton Kershaw and then couldn't figure out Ryu through seven innings on Saturday (tied at 0-0). However,  a three-run, pinch-hit double in the eighth off LA's bullpen gave New York a 3-0 victory. The win was the FIFTH in six games for the Mets and kept them three games behind the Chicago Cubs in the race for the second NL wild spot (the Mets also trail Milwaukee by two games). The loss dropped LA to 96-54, two games back of the NY Yankees for MLB's best record plus it also allowed the Braves to creep within three games of the Dodgers for the NL's best record. The rubber match of this series takes place tonight on ESPN and it HAS significance.

Taking the mound will be Walker Buehler (13-3, 3.14 ERA) and Zack Wheeler (11-7, 4.21 ERA). Buehler dominated at Baltimore on Tuesday, scattering four hits over seven scoreless innings and struck out 11 in a 7-3 win. The 25-year-old has not allowed a run in FOUR of his last six starts but in the other two, against also-rans Colorado and Miami, he allowed 11 ERs in just nine innings!Buehler has faced the Mets just once in his career,  allowing five ERs in five innings back on May 29, getting a no-decision in a 9-8 LA win.

Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. Wheeler enters this contest having gone 5-1 in nine starts since coming off the injured list in late July. The Mets are 7-2 in those nine starts, with both losses came against the Braves .Think LA has anything in common with Atlanta?

So let's break it down. Over Wheeler's last nine starts since coming off the DL, the Mets have won SEVEN times, with him allowing just nine ERs over 43 innings (1.88 ERA). However, in two meetings with the division-leading Braves, he's allowed 10 ERs while lasting just 11 innings (8.18 ERA). The Dodgers are the NL's best team and in three career starts against the them, Wheeler owns a 7.88 ERA. LA ranks fifth in scoring (5.43 RPG) and OPS (.810), as well as ranking third in HRs with 260. I expect them to 'rough up' Wheeler. As for Buehler, he can be unhittable at times but as I noted earlier (see above for a reminder), he's capable of a "bad day." He had  one of those bad days in his lone career start against Mets (again, see above). I say go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Hou Over at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans led the Saints 14-3 at the half on Monday night but found themselves down 27-21 with 50 seconds left in the game, after a New Orleans FG. However, they then went 75 yards in two plays to take the lead with 37 seconds left, only to lose on a 58-yard FG with 0:00 remaining on the clock. Houston doesn't want to hear anything about "moral" victories. The Jags opened their 2019 season, after an 0-4 preseason, at home against the high-powered KC Chiefs and their dynamic QB, Pat Mahomes. The Jacksonville D never came close to containing KC, as the Chiefs scored 40 points on 491 yards in the 14-point win. Mahomes passed for 378 yards with three TDs, all to WR Sammy Watkins (9 for 198). Nick Foles, who signed a four-year, $88 million contract in March, broke his left clavicle in the first quarter and had surgery Monday (he is out until at least Week 11).However, rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and impressed in his NFL debut.

The Jags visit their AFC rivals Sunday in Houston and in speaking about Minshew, head coach Doug Marrone told reporters, “He’s one of the few guys I’ve been around who can go from the classroom and really take it right onto the field. The other day was an unbelievable indication of that. I don’t know how many people – especially rookies – can go out not having done anything during the week and play like that.” Minshew completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs (both in the 4th quarter) and an interception in the 40-26 loss.

The Watson (268 yards and three TDs) to Watkins connection was in mid-season form plus with Lamar Smith out for the season, the newly constructed backfield tandem also got the job done last week. Carlos Hyde rushed for 83 yards just nine days after being acquired from Kansas City and Duke Johnson recorded 90 yards from scrimmage in his debut for the Texans. However, the defense surrendered 510 total yards to the Saints and had a hard time getting pressure in the backfield, recording just one sack and no tackles for loss.

Both defense got 'lit up' last week and what changes, here? The Texans won the AFC South last season at 11-5 and with Luck retired, are favored to win it again in 2019. An 0-2 start would be a 'killer.' That said, Houston's defense is a real question mark. Minshew is bouyed by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette ( but YPC) and the receiving corps showed off its newfound depth against the Chiefs. SIX players caught four or more passes for the Jags last Sunday, with Conley catching six (97 yards and one TD) and Chalk (four catches for 146 yards, that 36.5 per and a score). This one should be 'OVER' by the time the game reaches the fourth quarter!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sep Total of the Month is on Texas/Rice Over at 8:00 ET.

The marquee game last weekend was No. 6 LSU at No. 9 Texas. The Longhorns missed some scoring opportunities but was still in the game, trailing 37-31 with just under three minutes left in the game. However, LSU hit a 61-yard scoring pass AND converted a two-point conversion. A late Texas TD made the final 45-38.Junior quarterback Sam Ehlinger passed for a career-high 401 yards and threw four TDs vs LSU, after passing for 276 yards and four TDs in three quarters of a 45-14 win over La Tech on Aug 31. The now 12th-ranked Longhorns will play 0-2 Rice on Saturday at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Texans). Rice opened with a closer-than-expected 14-7 loss at Army and then allowed Wake Forest to run up 513 yards of total offense last week in a 41-21 loss at home.

Had a couple more things broken Texas’ way in Week 2, they’d be 2-0 right now. All-in-all, the Longhorns put up a good effort against a tough LSU defense and if Wake could roll up 513 yards on Rice, expect Texas to do the same. Texas scored more than 40 points just three times in 2018, each time against an opponent which finished in the bottom half in the country in scoring defense. As we saw last week against a top-flight LSU defense, this year's Longhorns could very well average 40 PPG in 2019.

Rice announced early in the week that freshman QB Wiley Green would not start vs the Longhorns after he suffered a hit to the head against Wake Forest that resulted in him leaving the field on a backboard and a trip to the hospital. Tom Stewart, a graduate transfer from Harvard had a 14-2 ratio last season, finished the game in place of Green and passed for 185 yards and a score. The Texas pass D was shredded by LSU's Joe Burrow, who torched the Longhorns for 471 yards and four TDs (forgivable) but how about La Tech's J'Mar Smith throwing for 331 yards and two TDs.

Expect Texas to move at will against Rice but don't be surprised if Rice gets a few scores, as well. These former SWC rivals own a long history, with Texas leading 72-21-1. The Longhorns have won 41 of the last 42, including 13 straight. The schools last met in 2015, with Texas winning 42-28. I'll take that final here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Cin/Sea Over at 4:05 ET.

Zac Taylor, the newest member of the NFL's under-40 coaching fraternity,has replaced Marvin Lewis (16 seasons) as head coach at Cincinnati. The 36-year-old takes his Bengals to Seattle for a Week 1 contest with the Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks feature the new highest-paid player in the NFL in QB Russell Wilson, the highest-paid inside linebacker in the league in All-Pro Bobby Wagner plus just added a prime asset to their defense with the recent acquisition of pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Lewis led the Benglas to seven postseasons, including FIVE straight from 2011-15, but NEVER won a single playoff game. After three straight losing seasons from 2016-18, Lewis was finally let go. Pete Carroll begins his 10th season as Seattle's head coach and he's taken the Seahawks to SEVEN postseason in nine years, including back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. Seattle won it all in 2013 and then in 2014, Carroll made one of the most infamous of all Super Bowl play-calls, as the Seahawks fell to the Pats. That said, while the Bengals are hardly considered playoff material in 2019, the Seahawks are expected to be a contender in the NFC.

QB Andy Dalton has seven 3,000-yard seasons in his career but is facing criticism at age 31 on whether he is the long-term solution under the new coaching regime. However, Taylor has publicly  praised him and the fact remains that Cincy has skill position talent even without injured wide-out A.J. Green.It should be noted that Bengals opened lat season 5-3, before an injury-decimated team finished by losing SEVEN of its last eight games. Russell Wilson is primed for a big year, as in 2018, he joined Peyton Manning as the only QBs in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in each of their first SEVEN seasons. What's more, the Seahawks had the top rushing offense in the NFL in 2018, averaging 160.0 YPG. Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs) and Marshawn has been long forgotten. On the other side of the ball, Clowney's addition late in training camp displayed the urgency Seattle felt at improving a defense that has slipped in recent seasons and allowed 353.3 YPG last season, ranking 16th of 32 teams (quite a drop-off from "The Legion of Boom" days).

Seattle is 14-0 in home games in September over the last nine seasons and averaged 28.5 PPG at home in 2018. However, as noted above, the team's D is not what it used to be. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of seven or more points during the last two seasons and I believe the Bengals just may give Seattle some trouble here.I fully expect Wilson (and his new and improved running game) to match or exceed its home scoring average from last year but I also expect Dalton and Co. to move the ball as well. O-V-E-R is the way to go!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Tulsa/San Jose St Over at 9:00 ET.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane had a tough assignment in Week 1, traveling to East Lansing for a game with preseason No. 18 Michigan State. Tulsa was smothered by the MSU defense, gaining just 80 yards and eight FDs in the 28-7 loss. Tulsa has a much easier assignment this Saturday, as it visits San Jose State. These Spartans opened 2019 with a 35-18 home win over Northern Colorado, as QB Josh Love passed for 224 yards with two TDs.

Tulsa actually held its own last week on the road against a ranked Michigan State team and the pointspread (Tulsa is about a TD favorite) reflects the team's better than expected showing against MSU. Tulsa is again matched up against a team nick-named the Spartans but San Jose St is NO Michigan St. QB Zach Smith is a Baylor transfer (he started 10 games for the Bears in (2016-17) and look for a breakout game here (he owns an 'elite arm'), vs a San Jose St defense that has allowed 36.6, 41.7 and 34.7 PPG the last three seasons. As for San Jose St, last week's win matched the team's win total from 2018 (1-11). The Spartans should be able to match Tulsa score-for-score, as Tulsa allowed 34.5 PPG in its six road games of 2018. Tulsa enters this game with a 13-game road losing skid and can only win by outscoring San Jose St. I'll stay away from the SU winner but will go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Oregon/Auburn Over at 7:30 ET.

Every school ranked in the AP's preseason poll will play in Week 1 (note: No. 8 Florida opened its season last Saturday vs Miami.) However, there is just ONE Week 1 contest which features a game between two ranked opponents and that's No. 11 Oregon taking on No. 16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. These schools have met just ONCE before but it was a memorable one. Led by Heisman winner Cam Newton, the Tigers defeated the Ducks 22-19 on Jan. 10, 2011 in the 2010 BCS national championship game, winning on a 19-yard FG as time expired.

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a 9-4 season in 2018 season, which included a 7-6 Redbox Bowl win over Michigan State. QB Justin Herbert decided to NOT enter the 2019 draft (many thought he's be a top-5 pick) and is expected to have a HUGE year. His 2018 season was pretty good, as he threw for 3,151 yards with 29 TDs and just eight INTs. Leading receiver Dillon Mitchell (75 catches / 1184 yards / 10 TDs) is gone but Jaylon Redd (38 catches) is expected to fill his role for this season. Oregon also brought in Juwan Johnson, a graduate transfer from Penn State (32 receptions last season) plus Cristobal also recruited four very highly touted freshman receivers, led by Mycah Pittman. CJ Verdell (1,018 yards / 10 TDs) and Travis Dye 739 yards / 4 TDs) give the Oregon offense great balance.The defense returns seven starters, including LB Troy Dye who was far and away the Ducks' leading tackler (109). Oregon also landed landing #1 overall prospect DE Kayvon Thibodeaux.

While the Ducks will feature a senior QB in Herbert, Auburn will start a freshman quarterback (Bo Nix) for the first time since 1946. However, he owns "good genes," as his father Patrick led Auburn to an 11-0 season in 1993. Nix is expected to be a dual-threat but Auburn also boasts one of the better RB tandems in the SEC, as JaTarvious Whitlow and Kam Martin combined for 1,245 yards last season. The Tigers' top-two pass catchers from last season, Darius Slayton (NYG) and Ryan Davis (Pats), are off to the NFL, so expect Seth Williams, who led the SEC in yards per reception at 20.5, to emerge as Nix's top option. The defense returns seven starters and note that Auburn's defense is one of four units (along with No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama and No. 12 Washington) to finish in the top-15 in scoring defense in each of the last three seasons!

"The hype machine" is on 'high' in Eugene but let's remember that the Ducks were just 5-4 in a watered-down Pac-12 in 2018. No, this isn't a bowl game but it is a major neutral-site, intersectional showdown (Pac-12/SEC ), so the Pac-12's sad-sack 3-19 ATS mark the last three bowl seasons is noteworthy. Head coach Gus Malzahn is back calling the plays for Auburn and all reports say Nix has all the tools to make Tigers 'run on all cylinders.' Expect Auburn to score plenty here Oregon and while the Auburn D is always tough, Herbert is excellent and he has plenty of 'weapons.' Let's leave it here. This is Oregon's first neutral-site opening game since 2011, when the Ducks lost to another SEC school (LSU), 40-27. Sounds about right. I'm Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFLX Total of the Year is on GB/Bal Over at 7:30 ET.

I had a "Best Bet" win with the Ravens in Week 1 (29-0 over the Jags), saying "What I can't ignore is that John Harbaugh leads his team into the 2019 preseason on a 13-game winning streak, going 11-2 ATS (that's an 85% winning situation). Sure, the Ravens will eventually lose a preseason game but isn't that what a reasonable person would have said entering 2018? However, Baltimore then went 5-0 in 2018's preseason, which began with a HOF game win." So here we go again. The Ravens are now on a 14-game win streak (12-2 ATS), as they welcome the Packers to M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday.

Matt LaFleur’s guided Green Bay to a 28-26 home win over the Houston Texans at Lambeau Field in his head coaching debut for the Packers last Thursday. Aaron Rodgers was nowhere to be found but QB DeShone Kizer somehow managed to not commit any errors, going 8 of 13 for 102 yards and a touchdown, while Tim Boyle had 40 passing yards and two TD passes on 4-for-5 completions. A win is a win but there has to be some concern that the Green Bay D allowed 419 yards (and 29 FDs!), 'escaping' because Houston committed FOUR turnovers (or did Green Bay force those TOs?).

Baltimore has entered the "Lamar Jackson era" and the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner directed two scoring drives in three possessions last Thursday. Speaking of turnovers, Baltimore’s defense had FOUR interceptions, including one that was returned for a TD by cornerback Cyrus Jones. Not sure if the Ravens will use Jackson as much here (he played the entire 1Q in Week 1) and if that's the case, rookie QB Trace McSorely will have a bigger load. McSorely had 85 passing yards and an interception on 9-for-22 completions against the Jags.

The Packers don’t have any urgent reason to play Aaron Rodgers in these exhibition games but the veteran did offer a hint at his upcoming schedule recently by saying, "I'm probably gonna play, I would assume, in the second and third games,” That said, we should expect to see plenty of Kizer, Boyle, and rookie Manny Wilkins sharing the quarterbacking duties. Kizer has been known for his carelessness since joining the NFL, so he could be a 'sitting duck' for Baltimore’s relentless stop unit. I won't back Baltimore here but rather I'm "Goin' Over." Baltimore averaged 25.4 PPG in going 5-0 during last year's preseason and opened by scoring 29 points in 2019's Week 1. Up against a GB defense that allowed 400--plus yards at home (as well as 29 FDs), I don't see the Ravens having much trouble scoring again here, whichever QB is playing. However, the Baltimore D doesn't figure to be quite as stingy this week and let's NOT ignore the fact that the Packers scored 28 points last week, even without Rodgers. Not sure why this total has dropped from the Opening Number but I view this a s 'rocking chair' Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Goin' Over Total is on SD/Pit Over at 4:05 ET.

Jose Osuna delivered a tiebreaking single in the eighth inning to lift Pittsburgh to a 2-1 victory over San Diego last night, snapping the Padres' four-game winning streak. The win gave the Pirates back-to-back victories for only the SECOND time this month and Pittsburgh will be seeking its longest winning streak in Saturday's game, since taking three straight from the San Diego Padres back on May 17-19. The Pirates also can make it FIVE in a row over the visiting Padres when the teams resume their three-game series Saturday afternoon at PNC Park.

Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.15 ERA) gets the start for San Diego and Chris Archer (3-6, 5.85 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Paddack missed the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched limited innings in the minors last year. However, he was healthy at the start of 2019 and the Padres expected big things from him. Why not? In 37 career appearances in the minor leagues, he had a 1.82 ERA with 230 strikeouts and only 20 walks in 177.2 innings. He was good as advertised in his first seven major league starts, going 3-1 (team was 6-1) with a 1.55 ERA and 46-10 KW ratio (18 hits allowed in 40.2 innings). However, he is 0-2 in his last three starts (SD is 0-3), allowing 13 runs (12 earned) and failing to pitch beyond five innings in each (7.36 ERA).

Injuries have ravaged Pittsburgh's starting rotation and Archer missed 18 days because of right thumb inflammation. Archer was an "underachiever" with the Rays and has followed that theme here with Pittsburgh. He hasn't found his form consistently since coming off the injured list in mid-May and he is 2-4 with a 6.93 ERA in his seven starts since May 15. Extending further back, he has given up 15 HRs over his last nine starts and owns that 5.85 ERA on heh season, along witha 1.52 WHIP.

The Padres are averaging 6.7 RPG in 13 road day games vs righties in 2019 plus had averaged 10.29 RPG in their previous seven games prior to last night. There is no reason to feel that San Diego WON'T get to Archer. As for Pittsburgh, the Pirates have averaged 6.4 RPG in 11 home days games vs right-handers and should continue Paddack's recent troubles. I'll also note that Pittsburgh has won FIVE in a row over San Diego, so the play here is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Goin' Over Total is on LAD/SD Over at 10:15 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won SIX of their seven series against NL West opponents in 2019 (15-6 record inside the division). LA visits San Francisco Friday for the first contest of a three-game series with the Giants. Surprisingly, half of LA's division losses (and the Dodgers' only series loss) have come against the 25-36 Giants, who own the second-worst record in the NL and will begin the weekend 17 games behind Los Angeles! The Dodgers are 8-0-2 in series play since dropping two of three in San Francisco from April 29-May 1, going 23-7 in individual games. The Giants are returning home after a 4-5 road trip in which they displayed their offensive capability at times before wrapping up their trek by getting outscored 14-3 in a pair of losses to the New York Mets. Comparing the two teams we find that the Dodgers lead the NL in team batting average (.265) and runs scored (340), while the Giants rank last (.221) and second-to-last (236), respectively.

Friday's pitching matchup is a complete mismatch. Clayton Kershaw (5-0, 3.20 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 8.08 ERA) for San Fran. The Dodgers have won all NINE of Kershaw's 2019 starts, as he has pitched at least six innings in each of his nine outings. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is 22-10 with a 1.68 ERA in 44 starts against the Giants (teams are 28-16). In stark comparison, Pomeranz is likely fighting to keep his spot in the rotation, after coming off one of the worst outings of his career last Friday in Baltimore. He allowed eight runs on six hits and two walks, lasting just 1.1 innings. The veteran lefty has not reach the fourth inning in any of his last FOUR starts, allowing 22 ERs on 25 hits over 10.1 innings for an astronomical 20.17 ERA.

Pomeranz owns a respectable 3.24 ERA in eight career starts vs LA (he's 1-4 and the team is 4-4) but that means no more than his 17-6 (3.32 ERA) with Boston in 2017, does. The Dodgers could 'cover' this over/under number themselves plus let me point out that in Kershaw's last five starts, the final scores have averaged 10.6 RPG. Play the Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL Total of the Month is on Phi/SD Over at 10:10 ET.

Philadelphia lost 8-2 last night in San Diego, the team's FIFTH straight defeat. That skid comes on the heels of Philadelphia winning FIVE of its previous six and the Phillies are now in danger of falling out of first place in the National League East (currently own just a half-game lead over the Braves). The loss makes Philly 0-4 on the team's current road trip and adding insult to injury, Andrew McCutchen exited in the first inning of last night's contest with a knee injury while trying to avoid a tag during a rundown. As for San Diego, the Padres bounced back from a pair of 9-3 home losses to Miami on Sunday, breaking open a tie game with a SEVEN-run sixth inning that featured a grand slam by Manny Machado.

The pitchung matchup for the middle contest of this three-game series will feature Jerad Eickhoff (2-3, 4.10 ERA) and Chris Paddack (4-3, 2.40 ERA). Eickhoff's first start of 2019 didn't come until April 21 (he lost 4-1). However, over his next three starts (Apr 26-May 8), he allowed just ONE one earned run over 20 innings, going 2-0 with an 0.45 ERA (Phils were 3-0). To put it mildly, the right-hander hasn't able to keep that up. He has struggled mightily over his last four starts, going 0-2 with a 8.35 ERA, a .329 BAA and a 1.58 WHIP. San Diego's Paddack has been a rookie sensation, although the 'bloom may be coming off the rose.' Paddack had a 1.55 ERA and had allowed only 18 hits in 40.2 innings over his first seven starts. However, he's had two bad outings over his last three. He did beat Arizona 2-1 on May 20 but that starts was preceded by a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers and followed by a 7-0 loss to the Mets. He lasted just 9.2 innings in those two outings, allowing seven ERs on 11 hits (five HRs!), for a 6.52 ERA.

Speaking of allowing HRs, Eichoff has served up 10 HRs over 18.1 innings during his rough stretch (see above). Yes, Eickoff owns a 3-0 career record against San Diego with a 1.96 ERA covering four starts (team is 3-1) but he hasn't faced them since 2017. As for Paddack, he has never faced the Phillies. Here's what I read prior to his last start. "Paddack is dealing with neck stiffness but is expected to make his next scheduled start Wednesday against the Yankees." He made that start and it is arguably the worst of his 10 major league starts. He gave up four runs -- three on solo HRs -- on six hits and a walk with six strikeouts in just five innings. This one is Goin' Over this low total.

Good luck...Larry

The Pittsburgh Pirates split the first eight games of their 11-game road trip but then swept the final three in San Diego. The Pirates are happy to have finished the trek 7-4 and now return to Pittsburgh to open a six-game homestand with three against the slumping Colorado Rockies. I’m proud of the effort,'' Pirates manager Clint Hurdle told reporters. "I’m proud of the energy, and the offense is starting to do some things that are significant, as well. It was a fun trip for us. It was a good baseball trip.” Colorado is wrapping up  an eight-game road trip here in Pittsburgh. The Rockies won the opener of their trip but have since lost the next four, including a three-game sweep at Philadelphia over the weekend.

German Marquez (4-2, 3.80 ERA) will get the nod on Tuesday for Colorado, while Pittsburgh counters with Chris Archer (1-3, 5.58 ERA). Marquez had allowed just  five runs in 29 innings over four road starts before giving up five runs on 10 hits across 6.1 innings in Colorado's 6-5 loss to Boston on Wednesday (he received a no-decision). That outing is part of a recent disturbing trend that has seen Marquez post a 5.76 ERA in his last four starts, after posting a 2.54 ERA through his first six starts of 2019. Marquez is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates.

Injuries have ravaged Pittsburgh's pitchers and Archer permitted seven runs (six earned) on four hits and four walks over 3.2 innings of an 11-1 loss at Arizona on Wednesday, his first start since April 26 (he had missed 18 days because of right thumb inflammation). Last Wednesday's outing was the SECOND straight in which he had allowed six ERs. His 4.7 walks per nine innings would be the worst rate of his career. Yes, Archer is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Colorado (14 strikeouts in 11 innings) but who can remember that pitcher?

Really, Archer has just become a career underachiever. He struggled in three starts before the injury, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA (Pittsburgh lost all three games), then was awful again last Wednesday (see above for a reminder). The Rockies are getting a bit of a break with the Pirates' pitching challenges. Strong opposing pitching has been a theme on the trip. In 48 innings, the Rockies have struck out 66 times against the likes of Boston's Chris Sale and the Phillies' Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff.  Expect Colorado to reach Archer (everyone else has) but also note Marquez's 5.76 ERA in his last four starts. It's Gioin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL TOTAL OF MONTH is on NYY/TB Over at 7:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees Friday night, in the first of three games between the AL East's top-two teams. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season and currently sits 23-13, 1 1/2-games up on New York. As for the Yankees, they have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), have climbed back in the race at 22-15, having gone 16-6 since April 16

Friday's pitching matchup will feature Domingo German (6-1, 2.35 ERA) and Tyler Glasnow (6-0, 1.47 ERA)> hardly 'household names, the duo is tied with Minnesota's Berrios for the most wins in the majors. German's made six starts and one relief appearance (in which he picked up a win) so far in 2019. He owns a 39-12 KW ratio, 0.89 WHIP and opponents are batting .225 against him. Glasnow won American League Pitcher of the Month for March and April and in his first May start, limited Baltimore to three hits over seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts last Friday. He has yet to give up more than two runs in his seven starts and boasts 46 strikeouts to go along with seven walks across 43 innings, posting an 0.86 WHIP with opponents batting just .197 against him.

Is this a "guaranteed" under? Not so fast! German owns a 7.36 ERA in three appearances (two starts) against Tampa Bay last year and Glasnow will be facing the Yankees for the first time since being acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year ( will face the Yankees for the first time since being acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year (his lone appearance against New York occurred in Pittsburgh on April 21, 2017, when he allowed three runs (one earned) in 4.2 innings). Are these two young pitchers for real? Let me note that German entered the season with a 2-7 record and a 5.22 ERA, after posting a 5.57 ERA in 21 appearances last season. Meanwhile, Glasnow entered this season 4-16 with a 5.35 ERA in 67 career appearances (28 starts) for Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. I'm Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on NYY/SFG Over at 4:05 ET.

The Yankees famously have have a major league-high 13 players on the injured list but are lucky that power-hitting first baseman Luke Voit isn't one of them. Voit was 3-for-4 with a HR and three RBI in Friday’s 7-3 victoryat San Francisco and has now reached base safely in a career-high 36 straight games. The Giants saw their three-game winning streak come to an end and have now scored three or less runs in FIVE of their last seven contests.

Saturday's pitching matchup is a meeting of lefties, as J .A. Happ (0-2, 5.96 ERA) takes on Derek Holland (1-3, 4.33 ERA). Happ is one of NINE pitchers in MLB to earn at least 10 wins in each of the past five seasons but one couldn't tell that by the way he's pitched so far in 2019. He's yet to earn a win through five starts (Yanks are 3-2 in his starts) , as opponents are batting .275 against him and he owns a 1.40 WHIP. Holland lost his second straight decision last Saturday, after giving up three runs on four hits over five innings against Pittsburgh. He does own an impressive 34-13 KW ratio over 27 innings but he's allowed a HR in each of his first five starts (Giants are 1-4).

Both starters are very familiar with their opponents tonight and their records against those opponents are why I'm playing this contest OVER. Happ owns a 1-4 record and 4.80 ERA in five career starts versus the Giants, while Holland is 1-7 with a 6.38 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts) vs the Yankees. Last night's over/under number was "7" with two much better pitchers on the mound (Paxton & Bumgarner) and the final was 7-3. Not sure why we see a similar over/under number in the Happ/Holland matchup? I guess we'll find out.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Bos/Ind Over at 1:05 ET.

The Indiana Pacers (48-34) went 8-14 down the stretch and the Boston Celtics (49-33) were able to earn the East's No. 4 seed and the homecourt advantage in their first round series with the Pacers, despite going just 7-6 down the stretch. In what was supposed to be a six or seven game series, Boston has controlled both ends of the floor against Indiana and with a 3-0 series lead, can become the first NBA team to advance to the second round of the playoffs when the teams play Game 4 of their best-of-seven series Sunday in Indianapolis. Boston held the Pacers to just 74 points in a 10-point Game 1 win, then outscored Indiana 31-12 in the fourth quarter of Game 2, for an eight-point win. The Pacers had SEVEN players in double digits at home in Game 3 but still weren't able to crack 100 points, losing 104-96.

Kyrie Irving finished Game 3 with 19 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and just two turnovers and is averaging 25.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists in the series. Jaylen Brown, who is starting at shooting guard with Marcus Smart (oblique) sidelined, scored 23 points while making 8-of-9 shots on Friday, including 4-of-5 from three-point range. As for Indiana, the Pacers fell victim to another bad quarter in Game 3, losing the third by a 21-12 margin. "The silver lining is that we've been in every single game," PG Darren Collison told reporters. "All it takes is one win. Definitely ain't going to be no quit in us. I know it sounds foolish outside looking in, being down 3-0, but in this locker room there's definitely not going to be no quit."

No team in NBA history has ever won a series after falling behind 3-0 and Indiana is basically reduced to playing for pride at this point. Defense was an issue down teh stretch for Indiana, which allowed 11 of its 13 opponents to score 102 or more points. In fact, Boston averaged 115.5 PPG in the two high-stakes meetings from Indiana in the final two weeks, 114-112 in Boston and later 117-97 at Indiana. Not sure whether the Pacers can earn their way into the win column but I believe we'll see the Pacers give a four-quarter offensive effort. Have three straight unders, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Ind/Bos Over at 7:05 ET.

The Boston Celtics finished the regular season going 5-5 SU but just 1-9 ATS over their final 10 regular season games. However, the Celtics were able to edge the Pacers for the 4th-seed in the East. The Pacers sure made it easier for Boston, as after winning their first road game after the All Star break., Indiana lost 10 straight road games (2-8 ATS), before winning at Detroit amd Atlanta to end the season. The two teams met Sunday at TD Garden in Game 1 of their first-round series, with the Pacers taking a 45-38 halftime lead. However, the Celtics outmuscled in the Pacers in the second half on their way to an 84-74 win (Boston outscored Indiana 26-8 in the third quarter).

Indiana shot just 33.3 percent from the floor (including 6-of-27 on threes) in Game 1 plus also went only 12-of-21 from the FT line. Just ONE starter scored in double digits, as the team's five starters combined for only 38 on 15-of-44 (34.1%) shooting from the floor. Also, the Indiana bench contributed to the team's poor offensive effort, with the usually reliable Domantas Sabonis (3-for-9), Tyreke Evans (3-for-11) and Doug McDermott (1-for-7) combining to shoot just 7-for-27 (25.9%). The Celtics had five players score in double digits, yet scored only 84 points, while shooting 36.4 percent, overall. Despite their lowest scoring game of the season, the Celtics prevailed 84-74 in Game 1 by dominating the second half and limiting the Pacers to 29 points.

The Pacers were just 2-of-19 from the floor in the third quarter and made only eight FGs in the entire second half, going 8-for-38 (21.1 percent). The 74-point total was 15 points lower than any previous game this season for the Pacers. The Celtics shot just 32 percent in the first half, before improving to 41 percent in the second half, in what was their lowest scoring game of the season.

So what to expect in Game 2? Is it possible that either team will shoot so poorly again? The Pacers shot 47.5% from the floor during the season (4th-best), including 37.4% on threes (5th-best). No way they shoot 33.3%, including 22.2% in Game 2. As for Boston, the Celtics shot 46.5% on the season, 10 percent better than in Game 1. These teams played in Boston down the stretch (March 29), with the Celtics winning 114-112. This game may not reach that level of scoring but I expect both teams to be in 100s and the current total is about a 'TD' lower than what it closed in Game 1 (210.5). This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My CBB 10* Game of the Month is on Tex Tech/Va Over at 9:20 ET.

Texas Tech (31-6)  meets Virginia (34-3) in the NCAA Tournament championship game Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, as each school looks to win its first-ever title.. Virginia has limited opponents to a national-best 55.5 PPG on 38.4 percent shooting (5th), while Texas Tech allows 58.8 PPG (3rd) on 36.8 percent shooting (1st). I could go into a detailed analysis of thsisgame but I prefer to make it "short and sweet!"

Virginia's 18 regular season ACC games finished with 120 points or more (opening total of this game was 119) in 12 of 18 contests. In UVa's seven postseason games (two ACC tourney games and five NCAA tourney ones), FIVE of the seven have exceeded 120 or more. As for Texas Tech, 17 of its 18 Big 12 games finished with 120 or more points. The Red Raiders were bounced in their first Big 12 tourney contest (79-74 by West Va) and in five NCAA games, the final has finished with 120 or more, three times.

I'm just going say "O-V-E-R" and let the chips fall where the may.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on Was/NYM Over at 1:10 ET.

It's likely the NL East could be a four-team race for the better part of the 2019 season. The Braves won the division last year and have opened 4-3 but the new-look Phillies are 5-1 and the Mets check in at 5-2. The Mets clearly believe they are the team to beat and look to bounce-back on Saturday against the 3-3 Nats, who spoiled the Mets' home opener Thursday. Stephen Strasburg struck out nine over 6.2 scoreless innings and combined with four relievers on a four-hitter as Washington earned a 4-0 victory. Both teams took Friday off and they cap the series with afternoon games Saturday and Sunday,

In a battle of lefties, Patrick Corbin (0-0, 3.00 ERA) takes on Steven Matz (0-0, 1.69 ERA). Corbin signed a six-year, $140 million contract with Washington in December, earning his big deal after a spectacular 2018 in which he struck out 246 batters in 200 innings while holding opponents to a .218 average. Corbin faced the Mets at home last Sunday in his Nationals debut and surrendered two runs and seven hits over six innings but did not factor in the decision, as the Nats avoided a home sweep with a 6-5 win.  Corbin does not have a good history vs the Mets , going 1-4 with a 5.05 ERA in nine starts (teams are 4-5). Matz surrendered a HR in the first inning at Miami on Monday but settled down and was charged with three runs (just one earned) on six hits in 5.1 innings (Mets would win, 7-3). Matz has made 10 career starts vs the Nats, going 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA.

Note that the opening total  in this contest was "7" and that the Nats are averaging 4.83 RPG and the Mets, 5.29 RPG. Add in that Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA in five career starts in Citi Field against New York and that Washington's bullpen owns a 9.64 ERA on the season (it's a MLB-high!). What's more, while Matz owns a 3.93 ERA vs Washington over 10 career starts, SIX of those starts came in 2018 when he failed to earn a win, going 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA. Let's go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on Hou/TB Over at 6:10 ET.

Houston rode ace Justin Verlander to a 5-1 win in Thursday's opener but could not solve former teammate Charlie Morton who made his Tampa Bay debut on Friday. Morton struck out eight in five innings plus a pair of Houston errors led to three unearned runs off Gerrit Cole in a 4-2 Rays win.The four-game series continues tonight with Houston's Collin McHugh (6-2, 1.99 ERA in 2018) meets Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA in 2018).

McHugh spent all of 2018 in the bullpen and appeared in 58 games, posting 94 strikeouts in 72 1/3 total innings. He actually earned Cy Young votes while going 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 2015 but last worked as a full-time starter in 2017, going 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts.Tampa Bay introduced the practice of use "openers" rather than starters last season and  will again count on its bullpen. The Rays saw four relievers combine for four scoreless innings in Friday's triumph, Glasnow worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the Pittsburgh Pirates last season but moved into the rotation after being dealt to the Rays at the trade deadline. He went 1-5 with a 4.20 ERA in 11 starts for Tampa Bay (Rays were 4-7), striking out 64 in 55 2/3 total innings.

McHugh is 0-4 in five career starts vs Tampa Bay (team is 0-5), while Glasnow is making his first career appearance against Houston. Glasnow made five home starts last season with Tampa Bay but is still looking for his first career win at Tropicana Field. The Astros were MLB's best road team in 2018, going 57-24 while averaging just over 5.1 RPG, while the Rays were 36-20 at home vs righties last year, averaging 4.9 RPG. Low total here for an AL game (all other AL games on Saturday are between 8 and 9) and I'll go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Hou/TB Over at 7:10 ET.

The Houston Astros hit three HRs off reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and totaled 10 hits in Thursday's season-opening 5-1 victory over the Rays. They now hope to match that offensive effort when they face old friend Charlie Morton on Friday in the second contest of their four-game series at Tropicana Field. As for the Rays, they managed just four hits, with two of them coming from the game's first two batters (one being a HR by Austin Meadows).

Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88 ERA in 2018) goes for the Astros and Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA in 2018) goes for the Rays. Cole produced his best ERA since 2015 with Pittsburgh and the top winning percentage of his career last season, finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting. He went 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in his first two career games against the Rays last year (Houston was 1-1). Morton arrives in Tampa Bay after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. Before joining the team in 2017, Moron was 3-5 with a 5.96 ERA against the Astros in nine career starts (teams were 4-5).

Here's why I'm going 'Over" in this one. The Astros were MLB's best road team in 2018, going 57-24 while averaging just over 5.1 RPG. I don't believe Morton will fare well against his teammates of the last two years and he's 0-3 with a 4.34 ERA in three career outings at Tropicana Field. .Houston just may reach this total by themselves. As for Tampa Bay, expect a bounce-back effort from its offense (even against Cole). After all, the Rays were 36-20 at home vs righties last year, averaging 4.9 RPG. This one is Goin' Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NCAA Tourney Total of the Year is on FSU/Gonzaga Over at 7:29 ET.

29-7 Florida State has won EIGHT of its last nine games, including a 90-62 rout of Murray State and Ja Morant in the Round of 32 Saturday. The team's only loss in that stretch came in the ACC tournament final against Duke (note: the Seminoles also lost to the Blue Devils 80-78 on a Cam Reddish 3-pointer with 0.8 seconds to go during the regular season on). Awaiting the Seminoles in the West Region's Sweet 16 is No. 1 seed Gonzaga, The Bulldogs routed Fairleigh Dickinson 87-49 and then took out No.9 seed Baylor 83-71. Gonzaga is making its FIFTH consecutive Sweet 16 appearance, the longest streak in the nation, one which includes a run to the 2017 national title game.Gonzaga will surely remember Florida State, as the Seminoles ended Gonzaga's 2018 season (as well as a 16-game winning streak) with a 75-60 upset in the Sweet 16 in Los Angeles during their surprising run to the Elite Eight last March.

The Seminoles will again be without senior forward Phil Cofer (7.4), who besides battling a foot injury also lost his father, former NFL linebacker Mike Cofer, to a lengthy illness just before the win over the Racers. "I think that's why you saw our guys so focused," head coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. "I think the night was in response to the respect we had for Murray State, but also the respect we had for Mr. Cofer." The 6-11 Mfiondu Kabengele(13.4 & 5.9) is FSU's leading scorer and comes off the bench (he's the ACC's Sixth Man of the Year). He scored a game-high 21 points in teh first round and then had 22 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the win over Murray State. 

Senior guard Terance Mann (11.6 & 6.5) is joined by PG Forrest (9.0-4.4- 3.7) and  Walker (7.5) to give FSU a solid guard trio. Cofer (7.4 & 3.5) will be missed but the 6-8 Gray (4.0 & 2.2) added 11 points agauinst Murray St. The 7-4 Koumadji (6.6 & 5.6 in just 15 MPG) can also not be overlooked.

Gonzaga is loaded. The Zags have three likely first-round NBA picks up front including 6-8 junior forwards, Rui Hachimura (19.7 & 6.6), the West Coast Conference Player of the Year, and Brandon Clarke (17.0 & 8.4), the WCC Defensive Player of the Year, Both are likely lottery picks in June. Then there is Killian Tillie, a 6-10 junior forward who missed last year's loss to Florida State but will play this time around despite missing a good chunk of the season with ankle and foot injuries. He is averaging 6.7 & 4.1, while shooting 42.9 percent from three-point range off the bench. In the backcourt it's Zach Norvell Jr. (15.1 & 4.3) and PG Josh Perkins (10.8 & 6.3 APG). Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring offense (88.6), field goal percentage (53.2), scoring margin (23.8) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.76). Other than that, the Zags don't have match.

The knee jerk reaction is to say "revenge" but FSU enters this contest having won 16 of its last 18, with the lone losses coming to No. 1 seeds Duke and North Carolina.Throw in the fact that FSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog in the Big Dance since 2009, so "laying it" could be dangerous to one's bankroll. That said, Mark Few WILL have his team ready for this game and this 'scoring machine' will get its share of points. As for FSU, this year's edition has also shown it can put points on the scoreboard, having averaged 75.4 PPG on the season, including 83.0 PPG in its first two NCAA games this year. This one's Goin' Over,

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* NBA Total of the Week is on Det/Pho Over at 10:05 ET.

The 36-34 Detroit Pistons are trying to secure the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference but they opened a five-game road trip with an 'ugly' 126-119 loss at the lowly Cleveland Cavs. The Pistons continue their road trip tonight in Phoenix, where they will take on the 17-55 Suns (Phoenix owns the West's worst record by 11 1/2 games). The Suns are heading for the draft lottery but had been playing better of late (6-4 run), before dropping a 116-101 decision at home to the Chicago Bulls on Monday.

Detroit was coming off a home win over the Toronto Raptors when it suffered the letdown against the Cavaliers plus All-Star forward Blake Griffin (24.7-6.6-5.4) was given  the night off to rest on Monday but he will be back against Phoenix. Detroit's defense was porous in Cleveland, as the Cavs shot 58.2 percent from the floor, as the Pistons matched a season high in regulation points allowed.

Phoenix had won six of 10, capped by a 138-136 overtime triumph in New Orleans on Saturday, before opening a two-game homestand with a dud against the Bulls.It wasn't good news that SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (16.9 & 4.9 in his 40 games with the Suns) sat out Monday with a thumb injury and is listed as day-to-day. However, Booker (25.6-4.2-6.8) and Auton (16.4 & 10.3) will be on hand, for sure.

Detroit enters this game just a half-game up on Brooklyn and 1 1/2 games up on Miami in a three-way battle for the 6, 7 & 8 seeds in the East. The Pistons will face West contenders Portland, Golden State and Denver in the final three stops of the trip, so to say the least, Detroit really needs a win at Phoenix. Expect Detroit to score here vs a Phoenix team allowing 118.7 PPG over its last six, as well 116.1 PPG on the season (27th) on 48.2% shooting (29th). Detroit scored 110 points or more in 12 of 14 games, before being held to 75 and 74 points in back-to-back games (Mar 11 & 13). However, Detroit enters this game having scored 111, 110 and 119 points in its last three. This contest has O-V-E-R written all over it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the under Devils/Oilers (9:35 EST).

New Jersey comes in off a 6-4 loss in Calgary just last night and I think it’s going to have a hell of a time here finding the same sort of energy levels in the second game of the back to back at this point of the season.

Edmonton has been playing much better over the last month having won seven of its last ten. That includes a 3-2 OT win over the Rangers last time out. The Oilers play with revenge here after a 5-2 defeat in New Jersey at the start of the season, but the situation each team finds itself coming into this one, points to more of a lower-scoring defensive battle in my opinion.

The Oilers will look to dictate the pace of this one and in the end, I believe that everything does indeed point to the “under” as the correct call tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the under Knights/Flames (8:35 EST).

These teams played last week in Vegas and the Knights scored the 2-1 lower-scoring victory.

The Flames have been scuffling of late and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle and to avenge that setback. 

The Knights though laid everything on the line in last night’s 6-2 in Vancouver and I think they’ll come in predictably tired here in the second game of the back to back.

Not only do these two Pacific division teams have a recent history of playing to tight, lower-scoring affairs, but note that LV has seen the total go under the number in 16 of its last 20 vs. teams with winning records, while Calgary has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this year after three or more consecutive losses. 

Everything once again points to a low-scoring battle. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the over Nuggets/Warriors (10:35 EST).

These are two of the best teams in the West and in the entire league. Totals are always set high no matter who their opponents are, but neither has played to many high-scoring affairs of late.

Both have been scuffling as well. Denver had lost three straight to Utah, New Orleans and San Antonio before then beating the Lakers, while the defending champs have lost five of their last eight, including a home blowout loss to the Celtics on Tuesday.

Denver got 17 rebounds from Nikola Jokic and 23 points, four boards and five assist from Will Barton in the victory over the Lakers.

Golden State got embarrassed last time out and I think it’ll be out to send a message here. I look for the Warriors to play with a “playoff like intensity” vs. this dangerous visiting side.

So from an overall situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” over a slower paced defensive battle.

Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go over in both games it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten or more points, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of five this year after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.

This number is low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the “under” Bulls/Pacers (7:05 EST).

These teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that this one finally sets up as more of a defensive contest.

The Bulls actually have the No. 1 offense in the league over the last ten games, averaging 120.8 points. Chicago was ravaged by injury before the season even started, but as the teams has gotten healthier, it’s started to show signs of promise for the future.

Chicago played a home and home set with Atlanta and both games flew “over” the number. The first game was an epic triple OT classic win for the Bulls, before the Hawks then reciprocated in Chicago. 

The Bulls play with “triple revenge” here after dropping all three previous meetings with the Pacers.

Indiana comes in desperate to break its current form of futility. The Pacers have lost three of their last four games as they could finally be feeling the absence of star Victor Oladipo in the line-up.

The last thing Indiana will want to do is to turn this into a “track meet” with the young and hungry Bulls though.

So with the home side looking to control the pace of this one, I’m absolutely expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle once it’s all said and done.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NHL TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Oilers/Sabres (7:05 EST).

Edmonton enters off a rare 4-0 road win over Columbus, while Buffalo is looking to bounce back after a 5-2 loss at Toronto. 

After losing 11 of its previous 12, Edmonton has now won four of its last six. The Oilers though are a poor 14-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.59 goals and conceding 3.29 in those contests.

Buffalo is 19-13 at home, averaging 3.13 goals and allowing 3.03, but note that the Sabres have seen the total go “under” the number in seven of their last nine after allowing five or more goals in a two goal or more loss in their previous outing. 

I think these two inconsistent non-conference bottom feeders play to more of a lower-scoring battle than a wide-open shootout.

Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* TOTAL is on the under Lakers/Suns (9:05 EST).

Both teams comes in off losses. Both teams were let down horribly by their defenses.

Phoenix lost 130-116 at home to New Orleans, while the Lakers’ tumble down the proverbial crapper continued with a lacklustre 131-120 setback at home to the Bucks. 

The Suns are out of the playoff picture, but if LeBron James has any hopes of reaching the post-season in his first year with the Lakers, he’s going to need to start his new big win streak starting immediately.

James had 31 points in the loss to the Bucks on Friday, but the super star is clearly struggling since his groin injury a couple of weeks ago. Since the entire “Anthony Davis fiasco” went down, LA has struggled overall. 

From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up as more of a defensive affair. Or at least I expect a lot of half court sets while on offense from each of these tired sides.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* (BIG 12) CONF. TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Baylor/K-State (8:00 EST).

Two teams which normally focus on the defensive end of the floor collide on Saturday night, but I think this total will sneak above this lower number once it’s all said and done.

Baylor enters on top form having won three straight, including a thrilling 84-83 win over Texas last time out. Mario Kegler led the way with 24 points and seven boars, while Devnonte Bandoo added 18 points. Overall Baylor averages 72.6 PPG. 

The Wildcats are looking to bounce back after a rough 64-49 loss to Kansas in their last outing. Kamu Stoked was a bright spot in a losing cause with 12 points and four assists. Overall the Wildcats average 65.9 PPG.

K-State allows just 59.5 PPG, which is ranked fourth in the country, but I think the home side is going to be out to push the pace from start to finish in this one after such a lack lustre effort in its most recent beat down loss. 

This one sets up great from a situational stand point in my opinion, as I’m expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Devils/Bruins (7:05 EST).

The Bruins are 9-0-1 over their last ten games and they’re coming off a big home victory over Tampa to move into second place in the East (I had Boston in that one as my Feb. GAME OF THE MONTH.) 

The Devils come to town off a poor 6-3 loss at home to Philadelphia. The Devils will be going with Corey Schneider in net for this one and he’s been decent since returning from injury, going 4-3-1 with a 2.11 GAA in eight games. 

The home side will counter with Tuukka Rask, who is 21-8-5 overall with a 2.36 GAA. 

I have a hard time seeing New Jersey putting up much of a fight here. And there’s no need for Boston to put up much of a fight here. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on the over (6:30 EST).

Two teams which revolve around their offensive units collide in the Super Bowl this year. Each team’s defense was decent this season, but clearly each side will be expecting the offense to carry the load and win the day in the end.

So with that in mind, I’m definitely expecting a more wide-open affair in Atlanta this Sunday.

Tom Brady may never get another shot at winning a record breaking sixth Super Bowl, so it’s essentially now or never for the living legend. 

The Rams played very little defense this year, but instead relied on their dynamic offense as well, centred around QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley. 

Brady has less weapons surrounding him perhaps than ever before, but it still didn’t stop him from beating the Chiefs 37-31 on the road last Sunday (and for a second time this season.)

Pats’ RB Sony Michel was a bright spot as well in the victory with 113 yards on 29 carries. In fact five different Patriots caught at least four passes, with Julian Edelman leading the way with seven receptions for 80 yards.

The Rams could obviously care less about Brady’s legacy. They didn’t care too much about veteran Drew Brees’ legacy last weekend after their controversial 26-23 OT win over the Saints.

LA had been torched for 45 points by the Saints in the first meeting between the teams (a Rams loss), and while the defense looked better last week, I still think they’ll have their hands full with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels.

Are ATS stats relevant at this point of the season and in this situation? 

Perhaps not, but I still think it’s interesting to note that NE has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last eight playoff games, while St. Louis has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six when playing with two or more weeks of rest.

As stated off the top, I’m expecting a wide open affair. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Championship Game Sunday O/U Play is on NE/KC Under at 6:40 ET.

A storm front is moving through Kansas City and it’s been reported that this could be the coldest game in Chiefs history. Since the news of the storm, this total has been steadily dropping. Regardless, for a number of different reasons I think the correct call will be on the “under” when it comes to the total, as I look for each to try and establish the run from start to finish while on offense.

The Chiefs’ much maligned defense looked fantastic in last week’s 31-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs front-seven limited the Colt to just 87 yards rushing and the Colts to only 263 total yards. The red-hot Andrew Luck had only 203 yards passing and Indy's lone offensive TD came with 5 1/2-minutes left in the game. KC's low-ranked pass defense (31st of 32 teams) has also displayed noticeable growth in the last two games, thanks to the fast-maturing duo of DB duo of Chavarius Ward (acquired in a preseason trade with the Cowboys) and rookie Jordan Lucas (picked up from Miami Dolphins). QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a TD pass for only the second time this season (he had 50 during the regular season) but Kansas City held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in the win over the Colts, as RB Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards and a score on 25 carries (who needs Hunt?).

New England is in its 8th straight AFC Title game following its dominating 41-28 home victory over the L.A. Chargers in the Divisional Round. Patriots scored TDs on their first 4 possessions with Tom Brady in top form. The Pats beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home in a Week 6 SNF contest but I believe the last thing that Brady and Bill Belichick will want to do in this one is turn it into a “shootout.” The overall conditions of this one point to more of a “chess match.” The New England attack wasn’t so special away from home this year, with the Pats going just 3-5 SU, averaging only 3.9 YPC on the ground, while scoring just four rushing TDs. Three of the team's five road losses came by double digits

This "Under" play is about more than just the weather. I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 24 on the road, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 19 of its last 27 as a home favorite.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Mem/Hou Over at 8:05 ET.

Houston's James Harden extended his streak of 30-point games to 16 with 38 points on Sunday, tying Kobe Bryant for the most consecutive 30-point games since Wilt Chamberlain in 1964. However, he missed 16 of 17 three-pointers, as the Rockets blew a 12-point lead against the 19-24 Magic in a 116-109 setback. The 24-18 Rockets suffered their first defeat against a losing team since Dec 20,. Houston returns home tonight to face the 19-23 Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a challenging stretch that will see them follow up the trip to Houston with a home game against Milwaukee and then visits to Boston and Toronto. Memphis snapped a six-game slide with an impressive 96-86 win over San Antonio on Wednesday but then lost112-108 at Miami on Saturday.

The Grizzlies continued their downward spiral on Saturday, blowing a 12-point, first-half lead in falling by four points at Miami. Memphis was coming off a season in which it went 22-60 but fashioned a surprising 12-5 start to the current one. However, that is now a distant memory, as Memphis has dropped 18 of 25 games since occupying first place in the Western Conference on Thanksgiving. The Grizzlies have posted a minus-8.6 net rating while losing seven of eight, a mark that would rank 28th in the NBA if extrapolated over this current season. PG Conley (20.2 & 6.2 APG) and center Gasol (15.7 & 8.6) continue to lead the way, while 6-11 rookie Jackson (13.4 & 4.6) has proven to be a solid draft pick. The 28-year-old JaMychal Green led the way in Saturday's loss with 24 points and 11 rebounds in only 22 minutes off the bench, his third double-digit effort on the boards in a span of four games. His role may increase after starting forward Kyle Anderson was lost to a sprained ankle. Green (10.7 & 6.8) is averaging 15 points and six rebounds in 22.5 minutes in two games against the Rockets this season, shooting 76.9 percent overall.

Houston had excelled during a grueling 15-game stretch, going 12-3 from Dec 11 thru Jan 9 against mostly quality foes. The Rockets were seeking to avoid a letdown during a four-game respite against struggling opposition. Houston had no trouble in beating the Cavs 141-113 but they then fell apart down the stretch vs the Magic (Orlando closed on a 20-6 run). Now its' Memphis and 21-23 Brooklyn, next.Harden checks in at 34.2-6.2-8.8 and center Clint Capela at 17.6 & 12.6 (he's averaging 21.2 points and 13 rebounds in Jan).  this month. Austin Rivers (13.4) scored a season-high 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting Sunday, making his seventh straight start while fellow guards Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are sidelined. Veteran Gerald Green (8.7) is averaging 13.8 PPG in the seven games that Gordon has missed.

My first thought was to play Houston, as the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home since a Nov 28 loss to Dallas (lone defeat was against the 30-12 Bucks). However, this low over/under number has me playing the total. A "typical" Houston home game has averaged 225.8 PPG and during the Rockets' current 11-1 home run, Houston has averaged a whopping 119.3 points! Sure, Memphis ranks first in points allowed (102.7 per) and just 29th in scoring (101.0 per) but the last time the Grizzlies visited Houston, the Rockets won 113-101 (that would work here!). This total opened 203 and while it has jumped a few points, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* Total of the Week is on Hou/Por Over at 10:05 ET.

Portland fell 111-109 at home to the Thunder just last night and if it looks to avoid back-to-back losses, it’s going to have to have a “short memory” here facing the red hot Rockets, who come to the Pacific Northwest on a six-game win skein and with 11 wins in their last 12 outings, including a 135-134 overtime thriller at Golden State on Wednesday Houston rallied from a 20-point deficit in the third quarter to beat the Warriors.

.Houston is still without Chris Paul, but the team is now finally firing on all cylinders after a slow start to the season. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 33.6 points and is riding a streak of five consecutive 40-point games, matching a feat accomplished only by Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant in the past 50 years. Center Clint Capela is having a career season, averaging 17.2 points and 12.7 boards.

The Blazers have been scuffling of late, going just 4-5 in their last nine after last night’s setback. The guard duo of Damian Lillard (26.6-4.6-5.8) and  CJ McColum (21.1) lead the way, while Nurkic (14.9 & 10.4) continues to prove he's a quality NBA center.

From a “situational” stand point, I think it sets up as a higher-scoring affair. Clearly the Rockets will be out to push the pace as they try to take advantage of a tired Blazers team. Portland figures to have to match Houston's pace, which point to a “shootout." This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Playoff Total Of The Year is on the over Hawks/Cowboys (8:15 EST).

Two hungry and talented teams collide on Saturday night and I think that points will be plentiful.

Seattle closed its regular season with a 27-24 win over Arizona at home on Sunday, while the Cowboys rallied for a 36-35 win on the road over New York. Seattle beat the Cowboys in a lower-scoring 24-13 victory at home back on September 23rd, but I think it’ll be the offenses which dominate the headlines in tomorrow’s summaries this time around.

Seattle enters the postseason on top form, having won six of its last seven. Overall the Hawks saw the Over/Under go 9-7 this year.

Seattle averages 26.8 PPG and it allows 21.7. QB Russell Wilson has 3,448 passing yards and a sharp 35/7 TD/INT. RB Chris Carson has 1,151 rushing yards and nine scores. The Hawks are the No. 1 rushing offense, which gives Wilson a lot to work with obviously.

Dallas averages 21.2 PPG and it allows 20.3. After a slow start, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot and the rest of the offense have looked a lot better over the last onto. Prescott had 3,885 passing yards and a 22/8 TD/INT, while Elliot has 1,434 rushing yards and six TDs. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 following a home victory, while Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five home games when the total is set between 40.5 and 45 points.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Goin' Over Total is on Mich St/Oregon Over at 3:00 ET.

The Big Ten's Michigan State Spartans (7-5) travel west to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca (home of the 49ers) to take on the Pac-12's Oregon Ducks (8-4). Michigan St entered the 2018 season off a 10-3 year, one which ended in a 42-17 win over Washington St in the Holiday Bowl. It was MSU's sixth 10-win season (or better) in the previous eight years. The Spartans were hopeful of contending for the Big Ten title but a 1-2 start in league play, ended that thought before the end of October.  Injuries slowed them for much of the season, especially on offense. Oregon opened 5-1 with its lone loss coming in OT vs Stanford (the Ducks led the Cardinal 24-7 at the half, then blew a 10-point lead in the final three minurtes of regulation). Oregon was ranked 12th when it lost to Washington St, a defeat which began a stretch of THREE losses in four games from Oct 20  through Nov 10.

MSU's LJ Scott played in only four contests because of injury and had planned on redshirting this season but the team's leading rusher from a season ago with 898 yards, has decided to go pro, so he's returning for the bowl game. He and sophomore RB Connor Heyward will share carries. Junior QB Brian Lewerke (1,868 yards, eight TDs) has his starting job back, after being hampered by a shoulder injury for the second half of the season. Mich St always plays excellent defense and this year is no different, as the Spartans are allowing 18.0 PPG (12th) on 311.5 YPG (14th). However, the offense was held to just 26 points in its last three contests, ending the regular season with an average of 19.8 PPG (123rd) on 343.0 YPG (117th).

Oregon QB Justin Herbert went out of the Ducks' regular-season finale in the first quarter with a shoulder injury but he's probable for this game. He's had an excellent season, passing for 2,985 yards with 28 TDs and just eight INTs. In Oregon's Civil War game with Oregon St, head coach Mario Cristobal turned to his young running game, and it didn't let him down. Freshmen CJ Verdell and Travis Dye combined for 386 rushing yards and six TDs in the 55-15 rout. Oregon comes in averaging 37.2 PPG (18th) on 447.5 YPG (29th).

I believe both teams are better than their records indicate and while the MSU defense is terrific, Oregon scored 30-plus points in NINE of its 12 games.Yes, MSU's offense has been awful all season but remember with a healthy Lewerke and Scott in last year's Holiday Bowl against the Pac-12's Washington St, the Spartans scored 42 points while gaining 440 yards. Oregon's defense allows 27.0 PPG (63rd) and I expect MSU to match or exceed that number here.I also see Oregon reaching 30 points (that would be a TD under its average), so I see this game Goin' Over and ending a seven-game 'Under' run by Mich St.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* O/U is on the under 49ers/Rams (4:25 EST).

The 4-11 San Francisco 49ers are the 12-3 Rams on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points will be at a premium in this one.

San Fran has nothing to play for here other than spoiler. The Rams have looked a bit shaky lately, but they don’t need to run this score up to win this contest. Instead all LA has to do is to control the tempo and set the tone. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting to see happen. 

San Fran has lost four of its last six and all seven on the road this year. Third string QB Nick Mullens has 1,995 passing yards and a 10/7 TD/INT. 

The 49ers ground game has been decent, averaging 118.3 YPG, led by Matt Breida with 814 yards and three TDs. Overall the 49ers allow 25.8 PPG.

The Rams have won seven of ten and with a victory today they’ll lock up the second seed in the NFC. LA has won five of six at home. Jared Goff has 4,489 passing yards and a 28/12 TD/INT. 

The Rams have been decent defensively though, allowing just 23..5 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that San Fran has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven following a two-game home stand, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Bowl Total of the Year is on TCU/Cal Over at 9:00 ET.

Justin Wilcox was introduced as the 34th head coach of the California Golden Bears back on January 14, 2017. The Bears went 5–7 during Wilcox's first year in 2017 but did earn wins over North Carolina, Ole Miss, and an 8th-ranked Washington State team. The Bears also had three losses by three points or less. Cal opened 3-3 in 2018 but won FOUR of six down the stretch to finish 7-5. Included among those four wins were a 12-10 win over then-No. 15 Washington plus a 15-14 win over USC at the Coliseum in Los Angeles that snapped a 14-year losing streak to the Trojans. I say kudos to Wilcox for righting the ship in Berkeley and leading the Bears back to the bowl scene.

Youthful TCU returned just 11 starters from a team that went 10-2 in the 2017 regular season, earning a spot in the Big 12 title game. However, the Horned Frogs opened 4-6 (2-8 ATS), before they showed some grit with closing wins of 16-9 at Baylor and 31-24 at home over Okla St to gain bowl eligibility. In the end, head coach Gary Patterson just wouldn’t let team quit. Patterson's first full season at TCU came back in 2001 and through last year, his teams had 10 seasons of 10-plus wins (including the 13-0 team of 2010, which ended No. 2 in the final AP poll).

California ranked 16th in the country in total D (319.4 YPG) and 24th in points allowed (21.2 per). However, while the Bears returned 10 offensive starters, the team averaged only 22.8 PPG (109th) on 350.2 YPG (112th). The Bears shuffled through QBs but Wilcox ultimately settled on RS freshman Chase Garbers. He completed 61% of his passes for 1413 yards, with 14 TDs and 7 INTs. However, he didn’t top 200 yards passing in any of his last five games!

TCU has been know for its defense under Patterson and the Horned Frogs have allowed 24.4 PPG (45th) on 344.4 YPG (27th). In fact, six TCU defenders were named to the all-Big-12 team. Like Wilcox, Patterson had to do some QB shuffling of his own during the season. A shoulder injury shelved soph Shawn Robinson for the season and soph backup Michael Collins missed time with a foot injury, exiting the Baylor game early.  Robinson has reportedly decided to transfer. Grayson Muehlstein, a 5th-year senior, completed 27 of 40 passes for 327 yards and three TDs in leading the Frogs to wins in the last two games. He'll start here.

The knee-jerk call here would be "Under," but not so fast. These are too very good defensive units but this over/under is the LOWEST of the entire bowl season. The "average" Cal game this season finished at 43.0 PPG, while the average TCU game checked in at 49.1 PPG (there's an edge, right there!). It's obvious that TCU's Patterson has a HUGE  edge in bowl preparation experience over Wilcox, as while this is Wilcox's first-ever bowl game, Patterson is coaching in his 17th (first in 2000, came as interim TCU head coach). 

Plenty of motivation on the Cal side, as the Bears can win eight games for only the second time since 2010 with a victory over the Horned Frogs. However, TCU needs to beat Cal to avoid its second 6-7 finish in the past three seasons. TCU head coach Gary Patterson is 6-0 against Pac-12 foes and the play here is OVER this VERY low number.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Bengals/Browns (1:00 EST).

The 6-8 Cincinnati Bengals head to Cleveland to take on the 6-7-1 Browns on Sunday and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it.

The Bengals won their last game, but they’ve lost four of their last five on the road. Starting QB Andy Dalton is out and backup Jeff Driskel is in. So far he has 775 yards passing a 4/2 TD/INT. The ground game has been a weak point on offense as well, averaging 103.9 YPG. 

But the weakest weak point for the Bengals has been on the defensive side, allowing 29.5 PPG. The unit catches a break though facing Cleveland’s inconsistent offense.

The Browns have won four of their last five and still have a slim playoff chance. QB Baker Mayfield has 3,065 yards passing and a weak 21/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 121.1 YPG. The defense has been hit or miss, allowing 24.9 PPG. Myles Garrett has been a standout with 12.5 sacks.

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 22 at home.

This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control is paramount in the victory. This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on the SA/Hou Under at 8:05 EST.

The 18-15 Spurs are in Houston tonight to take on the 16-15 Rockets. The SA Spurs entered last night's home game with the T-wolves having won  six of their last seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins had all been by 25 or more points. Make that SEVEN of eight wins, with FIVE in a row coming by 25 points or more, as San Antonio blasted Minnesota, 124-98! San Antonio coasted again on Friday, getting just 22 total points from top scorers DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, who entered with a combined average of 42.2 PPG.

The Rockets last played on Thursday, when the team's five-game winning streak was snapped by the Heat, who won 101-99. More bad news came Houston's way as star PG Chris Paul strained his left hamstring in the loss at Miami. He is expected to miss at least two weeks. "It's definitely tough, because he's a big-time playmaker and ball handler for us," guard Eric Gordon told reporters. "In this offense you need all of the playmaking that you can have, and usually me, Chris, and James [Harden] have the ball in our hands trying to play-make for other people and provide good scoring." 

The Spurs are playing on back-to-back nights and have gone 0-5 in the last half of those recent back-to-backs. Also note that Houston is 0 -5 this season without Paul. This situation hardly seems to favor a high-scoring game. In fact, Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 10 of its last 14 after playing a road game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total Of The Year is on the over Cards/Falcons (1:00 EST).

Two proud teams collide with nothing but pride to play for. Neither side can be happy with the way its season has unfolded to this point, but with the pressure off and with both trying to gain something positive to build off to end the season, I’m expecting more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.”

Arizona has lost six of eight. QB Josh Rosen has 1,910 passing yards and a 10/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been the weak point to this point, averaging only 85 YPG. The defense though has also been a shell of its former self and the Falcons’ high-flying and under-achieving offense will definitely have its opportunities in facing a Cards’ unit which is allowing 25.2 PPG.

The Falcons have lost five straight and they’ll be given the green light today to open up the playbook. QB Matt Ryan has been a bright spot, going for 4,076 yards along with a  28/6 TD/INT. Ryan now has two or more TD passes in five of his last eight games. 

I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 21 on the road and in nine of its last 14 as a road underdog, while Atlanta has seen the total go over in 15 of its last 21 as a home favorite and in three of its last four following a loss by 14 points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Blazers/Rockets (8:05 EST).

Portland comes in off a 113-105 home win over Minnesota, while Houston enters off a 107-104 road loss in Dallas. Houston is looking to break out of its early season slump and to avenge a 104-85 setback to the Blazers on October 30th. 

I’m expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Portland’s won two straight. Overall the Blazers average 112.3 PPG and concede 110.4. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 27.2 points and 6.4 assists per night. 

Houston averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 109.7. James Harden leads the team with 30 points, 5.5 boards and 8.3 assists per game. 

I’ll point out as well that Portland’s already seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this season, while Houston has seen the total fly over in its last three following a loss by 14 points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U play is the under Ravens/Chiefs (1:00 EST).

Baltimore comes in off a 26-16 road win over Atlanta last weekend, while the Chiefs posted a 40-33 win over the Raiders. If Kansas City is going to move ahead in the playoffs, it’s going to have to learn how to play defense at some point.

The Ravens won’t be looking to turn this one into a shootout. Instead the visitors will be hoping to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense off the field as play whenever possible.

And that means clock control while on offense themselves. Baltimore rookie RB Lamar Jackson has started three straight games and led his team to victory in each. He only has 540 passing yards with a weak 2/3 TD/INT, but he’s also posted a thrilling 404 rushing yards.

Overall the Ravens are averaging 24.8 PPG and allowing an NFL best 17.8.

The Chiefs are averaging 37 PPG and conceding 27.2. Mahomes has a stellar 41/10 TD/INT thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore has seen the total go under the under in four of six on the road already this year, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 23 as a home favorite.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TV Total Mismatch is the over Philly/Detroit (7:05 EST).

Philly had its five-game win streak snapped in a tough 113-102 road loss in Toronto on Friday, while Detroit enters off a poor 115-92 road loss in Milwaukee.

Both teams will be eager to return to form and as such, I’m expecting a wide-open run and gun shootout rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Detroit will be extra motivated here as well after back-to-back poor showings and to also avenge a 109-99 loss to the 76ers on November 3rd.

Philly averages 113.7 PPG and it concedes 111.8. Big man Joel Embiid leads the way with 26.3 points, 13.3 boards and 1.96 blocks per game.

Detroit averages 109.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 24.9 points, 9.1 boards and five assists per night.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go over in 10 of its last 14 after playing to three or more straight “unders,” while Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in both games that it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* play on the over Jaguars/Titans (8:20 EST).

The Jags come in off a 6-0 win at home over the Colts, while the Titans saved their season with a late 26-22 home win over the Jets. 

Tennessee took the first game this year 9-6, but I’m finally expecting more of a wide open shootout on the short week between these two desperate teams. 

The Jags defense stepped up with their best performance of the season last week, but consistency on the road and from game to game has been Jacksonville’s biggest problem this year. 

The Titans had to rally from a 16-0 first half deficit last week and I fully expect Tennessee to keep that momentum rolling here. 

And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout, as note that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in its last three in revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a favorite, while Tennessee has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

This number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Skins/Eagles (8:15 EST).

To say this is a big game would be an understatement. It’s a “must win” game for both teams. A victory assures nothing, other than “being in the playoff picture” for another week, while a loss “seals the deal” on a disappointing season.

With so much on the line, I’m absolutely expecting more of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control becomes paramount in the end. 

Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency. The Redskins are down to the backup QB in Colt McCoy after losing Alex Smith to injury for the year. McCoy was unspectacular in the Thanksgiving day loss to the Texans, going for 268 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Clearly Washington won’t be asking McCoy to do too much more than just manage the game today, as the visitors establish the run game and hope that their defense and special teams come up big.

The Eagles needed a late rally to salvage their season last week, pulling away for a 25-22 win over the Giants. Carson Wentz was an efficient 20 of 28 for 236 yards and a TD. RB Josh Adams was big with 84 yards on 22 carries.

But like the Redskins, the Eagles are going to be relying on their defense to come up big today and to dictate the pace of this one.

Note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in its last four road games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of six home games already this season.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* West-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under LA/NO (8:05 EST).

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense.

These are indeed two of the higher-scoring teams in the league, but each comes in off an exhausting game just last night. While these clubs normally play to “shootouts,” I think the overall conditions finally point to a lower-scoring defensive battle.

LA plays with revenge here after falling 116-109 in the first meeting between the teams this year.

The Clippers come in dejected off a 114-110 loss in Dallas on Monday, while the Pelicans return home contented after a 119-109 road win in Charlotte.

After winning nine of their last ten, I think a predictable letdown is in store for the over-achieving Clippers in the second game of the back to back. 

New Orleans has been “hit or miss” all year as well, going just 5-6 in its last 11 overall, so a letdown after last night’s big win isn’t too difficult to imagine either.

Additionally note that LA has seen the total go under the under in five of seven already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent which scored 110 points or more in, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten as a favorite.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under 49ers/Hawks 9* (4:25 EST).

San Francisco comes in off a 27-9 loss at Tampa Bay and I think it’ll have difficulty producing much offense this week either. 

Seattle enters off a much-needed 30-27 road win over Carolina and it’ll be looking to avoid a dangerous letdown here. 

Overall San Francisco is averaging 20.7 PPG, while conceding 26.6. QB Nick Mullens threw for 221 yards and a TD in last week’s loss, but he also had two INTs.

Seattle is averaging 147.1 rushing yards per game, which is No. 1 in the league. Look for the home side to double down on the run game this week. Overall the Hawks average 25.1 PPG and allow 22.1. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go under in six of its last eight vs. teams with losing records, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine after scoring ten points or less in its previous outing.

This number is high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* total is on the under Colts/Jags (1:00 EST).

Indianapolis has won six straight. Last week the Colts beat Miami 27-24. Indy’ QB Andrew Luck has 3,112 yards and a 32/11 TD/INT. RB Marlon Mack has 556 rushing yards and four TDs. Overall Indianapolis is averaging 29.5 PPG, but I think it’ll have a more difficult time moving the ball today in this unfriendly road venue.

The Jags are desperate for a win after seven straight losses. Last week Jacksonville fell 24-21 to Buffalo. QB Blake Bortles has 2,572 passing yards and a weak 13/10 TD/INT. TJ Yeldon leads the rushing attack with 385 yards thus far. The defense has been decent for Jacksonville, but the offense is averaging only 17.9 PPG. 

I’ll point out that Indianapolis has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four following two or more SU wins, while Jacksonville has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

Note that Bortles is being benched in favor of Cody Kessler. With the home side clearly committed to establishing the run in an attempt to keep Luck off the field of play, look for this one to fall under the number once it’s all said and done.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Browns/Bengals (1:00 EST).

The 3-6-1 Cleveland Browns would love nothing more than to punch another one into the win column and to put a nail in the coffin for the Bengals season at the same time. Cincinnati is 5-5.

The Browns remain competitive each week, thanks mostly to an above average defensive unit. Last week QB Baker Mayfield had 216 yards and three TDs, but the big star was RB Nick Chubb, who has 176 rushing yards and a TD. 

After starting off 4-1, it’s do or die for the .500 Bengals. Cincinnati catches a break though facing the Browns offense which is averaging only 21 PPG. Last week QB Andy Dalton had 211 yards and two TDs in the loss to the Ravens. 

From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up more as a “chess match” than a wide open “shoot out.” The Bengals will look to control this one while on offense to keep Mayfield off. The Browns will once again be relying on their defense to pull this one out for them.

Additionally note that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 21 of its last 36 as an underdog, while the Bengals have seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last 11 following two or more losses. 

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Rutgers/MSU (4:00 EST).

There’s absolutely nothing on the line here for either team. Rutger is 1-10 and it has nothing to lose, as it’ll be opening up the playbook to try and score an improbable outright upset. 

The Scarlet Knights have lost seven straight on the road. QB Artur Sitkowski has 1,158 passing yards, four TDs and 18 INTs. The ground game has been decent by averaging 136.4 PPG. 

While the offense has been poor, the defense has been downright terrible, allowing 33 PPG.

Michigan State is already bowl eligible, but it’ll be looking to end its season strong for its seniors after splitting its last four games. QB Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi have combined for ten TDs and 11 INTs. The ground game is averaging 120.6 YPG and the defense is conceding 18.7 PPG.

I’ll point out as well that Rutgers has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 vs. teams with winning records, while MSU has seen the total go over in three of its last four vs. teams with losing records and in four of six as a favorite this season.

With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to soar over sooner, rather than later.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Clippers/Hawks (7:35 EST).

The Hawks clearly can’t get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Clippers and expect to break their seven-game losing streak. With the home side putting an emphasis on trying to control the pace of this one, I think it’ll ultimately fall under this sky-high number once it’s all said and done.

LA could be caught complacent  here as well. Not many gave the Clippers hope this year, but LA enters on the heels of a four game win streak. Who would fault the Clippers for looking past their lowly non conference opponent in some small way today?

The Clippers most recently beat the defensively inept Nets on Saturday, led by 16 points and ten boards from Montrezl Harrell in the fourth quarter alone.

Jeremy Lin was a bright spot for Atlanta in the Hawks most recent loss to the Pacers, coming off the bench to score 16 points, grab four boards and dish out four assists. 

From a situational stand point I think it sets up nicely for an “under,” but also note that LA has seen the total go under in 20 of its last 33 following a three games or more unbeaten streak, while Atlanta has seen the total dip under in 12 of its last 18 after playing three consecutive road games.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U Total is the under Panthers/Lions (1:00 EST).

Carolina is out to atone for its 52-21 loss in Pittsburgh last week. Detroit is also out for a little redemption after its 34-22 loss in Chicago last Sunday.

Overall the Panthers are averaging 26.8 PPG and they’re conceding 25.8. Carolina is still second in the NFC South, but after giving up 457 yards last weekend, the worst of the season to date, clearly Carolina will be out for a better performance today against the incredibly one-dimensional Lions.

Detroit’s defense wasn’t actually all that bad in last week’s loss, giving up 348 total yards. Overall though they’re allowing 27.1 PPG, which is ranked 28th in the NFl. The offense has been an issue as well this year for Detroit, as Matt Stafford has a poor 16/8 TD/INT and overall the unit is averaging only 22.4 PPG.

I’ll point out as well that Carolina has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven after two or more SU losses.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total Of The Month is on the under Cavs/Wizards (7:05 EST).

Cleveland comes in off a big win over the Hornets at home last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable offensive letdown here from the under-manned and inconsistent Cavs. 

Washington enters off a much needed 117-109 win over Orlando and it’ll be out to control the tempo/pace of this one and punch another one into the win column.

The Cavs are 27th in the league in scoring with an average of 103.3 PPG, but on the second game of the back to back, I have a hard time seeing Cleveland even reaching that mark. The defense is conceding 113.1 PPG, but it admittedly looked a lot better against the Hornets last night.

The Wizards are averaging 111 PPG and they’re conceding 118.5. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success, but Washington has looked a lot better of late on both end of the court and I think the team carries that momentum over here.

Note that the Cavs have interestingly already seen the total go “under” the number in six of seven vs. poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while the Wizards have seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 23 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” 

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the (8*) under 76ers/Heat (7:35 EST).

Philadelphia’s three-game win streak came to an end in a 116-112 OT setback in Memphis on Saturday. Miami is looking to get back to its winning ways as well after falling 116-110 at home to Washington on Saturday. 

Philly is just 1-6 ATS on the road this year. Overall the 76ers are averaging 111.9 PPG and conceding 112.9. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Joel Embiid is averaging 27.7 points and 13.1 boards per game.

Miami is averaging 110.6 PPG and it’s conceding 110.6 as well. Once again, clearly this isn’t a recipe for success either. Goran Dragic leads the nightly charge with 16.1 points and 4.9 assists per night.

Note though that Miami has seen the total go “under” in 13 of its last 20 after playing three consecutive home games, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in its last four games vs. teams with losing records. 

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* O/U top play is the under Redskins/Bucs (1:00 EST).

Washington will be eager to get back on track here after a 38-14 setback at home to Atlanta, while the Bucs are also out for some redemption after a 42-28 blowout road loss in Carolina last weekend. 

Washington is averaging just 20 PPG this year, as it’s been the defense doing the “heavy lifting” most weekends, allowing a respectable 21.5 PPG. QB Alex Smith has 1,867 passing yards and a 9/3 TD/INT, while RB Adrian Peterson has 604 rushing yards on the season. 

TB is averaging 28.6 PPG and it’s allowing 34.4. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. But the Bucs catch a break this week in my opinion facing a Redskins offense that’s still trying to find itself. 

While these are normally two higher-scoring teams, I’ll point out that the Redskins have seen the total go under the number in six of their last eight as an underdog, while the Bucs have seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of their last 14 following two or more consecutive SU losses.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Goin Under Total is the under Pelicans/Thunder (8:05 EST).

The Pelicans started off strong, but they’ve since regressed. The Thunder were a mess to open the campaign, but they’ve been firing on all cylinders of late.

Two teams moving in opposite direction collide and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium.

The Thunder have won four straight, most recently a 134-111 road win in Washington on Friday. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? 

New Orleans on the other hand is coming off five straight losses, most recently a 109-95 setback at San Antonio.

Pelicans’ star Anthony Davis has recently commented about the pressure of having to play at such a high level every night to even give his team a chance to succeed. Davis had 17 points, eight boards, three assists and five blocks in the loss to the Spurs.

OKC has definitely turned things around of late, but note that during its recent win skein it has in fact beaten just one opponent with a winning record. Russell Westbrook had 23 points, three boards and 12 assists in the win over Washington.

I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 33 following a divisional contest, while OKC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 19 off an upset win as an underdog.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Rams/Saints (4:25 EST).

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams?

Clearly high-flying, explosive offenses would be right up at the top. LA is 8-0 and New Orleans is 6-1. 

Both teams have been the “cream of the crop” this season, but I’m expecting more of a “chess match” on Sunday afternoon. 

It’s hard to win on the road consistently in the NFL, but so far the Rams are a perfect 4-0 away from friendly confines. QB Jared Goff has 2,425 passing yards and a 17/5 TD/INT. The ground game has been extremely strong as well, averaging 153.1 yards per game, with Todd Gurley leading the charge with 800 yards and 11 TDs thus far. Look for the dynamic back to play a pivotal role in the Rams offense today (as he does each week.) Aaron Donald has been a standout defensively with ten sacks.

The Saints’ have won six straight QB Drew Brees has 1,990 yards and a sharp 14/1 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 108 yards per game, with Alvin Kamara leading the way with 408 yards and seven TDs. 

Note that LA has in fact seen the total go “under” the number in three of four on the road already this season, while New Orleans has seen the total go “under” in nine of its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU/ATS victories and in five of its last six against teams with winning records.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Lions/Vikes 8* (1:00 EST).

Both teams are desperate for a victory. Both teams enter off losses. In my opinion, this one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a run-and-gun “shootout.” 

Detroit lost 28-14 at to Seattle, while Minnesota fell 30-20 at home to the Saints.

Detroit is averaging 24.4 PPG and it’s allowing 26.6. Clearly that’s not going to get the job done going forward. QB Matt Stafford had 310 passing yards and two TDs in last week’s loss, but he also had a costly INT and a fumble. Note that the Lions traded WR Golden Tate to the Eagles this week. 

The Vikes are averaging 24.6 PPG and they’re allowing 24.4. QB Kirk Cousins has a 16/4 TD/INT. Despite allowing 30 points to the Saints last week, the Vikes’ strength still remains on the defensive side of the ball. 

I’ll point out that Detroit has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 13 against the division and in 7 of its last ten as a fav in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the Jazz/Nuggets over (9:05 EST).

Utah enters off a listless 110-100 home loss to Memphis. Donovan Mitchell sat that one out and the Jazz looked poor on both ends of the floor.

The high-flying Nuggets will look to take advantage and to get out and push the pace of this one from strait to finish. Denver enters off a 110-91 road victory over Cleveland. 

Utah though is averaging 114.3 PPG, while allowing 109.3. The Jazz have been one of the best defensive clubs in the league the last few years, but in the early going so far this season that hasn’t been the case. Note though that the over is 4-1 in Utah’s five road games. 

Denver is averaging 112.5 PPG and it’s allowing 103.6. Nikola Jokic leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points, ten boards and 6.6 assists. 

I’ll point out as well that Utah has seen the total go over the number in three of four this year against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Denver has seen the total go over in 13 of its last 17 after a three games or more SU unbeaten streak.

This number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NCAAF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Louisville/Clemson (12:00 EST).

Louisville is just 2-6. In the loss to Wake Forest most recently QB Jawon Pass had 358 yards and a TD. 

Clemson is 8-0. Most recently the Tigers destroyed FSU, as QB Trevor Lawrence had 314 yards and four TD’s. 

The Cardinals have had a difficult schedule so far, but giving up 56 points to the Demon Deacons clearly can’t be sitting well with the team. 

Clemson has to be careful though, as it will have to avoid “looking past” its lowly opponent today to its game against Boston College. 

After that though it’s clear sailing for the Tigers, with games against Duke and South Carolina to finish the season. A perfect campaign is definitely plausible for Clemson, but “staying in the moment” is clearly paramount. 

At two wins, Louisville won’t be invited to a bowl game this year, but it’ll be playing for pride none-the-less this afternoon.

Note that the Cards have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Clemson has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite of 31 points or more and in five of its last six home games where the total is between 56.6 and 63. 

I’m banking on more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.” Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Down Under Total is the under Clippers/Magic (7:05 EST).

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense.

However, I think the conditions are right for more of a defensive affair this evening.

The Clippers enter off a high-scoring 122-113 loss in Philadelphia just last night and I expect the team to come in with “heavy legs” in the second game of the back-to-back. 

The Magic will look to take advantage. Note that Orlando has lost seven straight in this series.

The Magic come in having lost three straight overall and they’ll be desperate to reverse their fortunes with a solid defensive effort in my opinion.

Note as well that LA has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 22 road games in the second game of a back to back in which it gave up more than 120 points and lost in the first. 

Additionally note that Orlando has seen the total dip below the posted number in 14 of its last 24 after a three games or more SU/ATS losing streak.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Jets/Bears (1:00 EST).

The 3-4 Jets are at Soldier Field to take on the 3-3 Bears on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium.

Last week the Jets lost to the Vikes and rookie QB Sam Darnold had 206 yards, one TD and three INTs, while Isaiah Crowell managed only 29 yards. 

Last weekend the Bears fell to the Pats in a shootout, as QB Mitch Trubisky had 333 yards, two TDs and two INTs. 

These two normally offensively challenged teams have played to many high-scoring affairs already this year, including last weekend, which makes it important to note that the Jets have in fact seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a wide-open “shoot-out.” Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* World Series Game 1 Opener is on the “over” at 8:05 ET.

The Boston Red Sox won a franchise-record 108 games this year and easily advanced to the World Series with 3-1 and 4-1 series win over the Yankees (team's most-hated rival) and Astros (defending champs). The Los Angeles Dodgers were 16-26 back in May and were in third-place in the NL West in September. However, they won a Game 163 tie-breaker to capture the NL West title, then took out the Braves 3-1 in an NLDS matchup. In the NLDS, LA need to win Game 7 in Milwaukee, before advancing to the World Series in back-to-back years for the first time since 1977 and 1978. Boston is looking for its fourth World Series crown in 15 years (won in 2004, 2007 and 2013), while the Dodgers are attempting to end a title drought that dates to 1988 (you may just have seen or heard about Kirk Gibson's Game 1 HR once or twice).

A pair of MLB's top lefties square off in Game 1. Three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (2-1 & 2.37 ERA in four appearances, including three starts, in the 2018 postseason) for LA and Chris Sale (1-0 & 3.48 ERA in two starts and one relief stint) for Boston. Kershaw will be pitching at Fenway Park for the first time in his career. "I don't really think about that stuff," Kershaw said during a press conference. "I appreciate the history and everything that goes along with Fenway Park. ... Check this one off as far as pitching (Tuesday), but I don't really think about the history part of it too much, honestly." To be kind, Kershaw has experienced "mixed results" in the postseason and stands 9-8 with a 4.09 ERA in 28 career appearances (22 starts).

Sale will be pitching for the first time in 10 days. He started Game 1 of the ALCS (just four innings, although he threw 86 pitches) but missed his Game 5 start due to a stay in the hospital with a stomach ailment (he was scheduled to start Game 6 vs Houston). "Just had a stomach thing," said Sale, who earned his first postseason win in the ALDS. "It's not fun. It's definitely not fun watching your team. Got to do what you got to do, though. It happened, we dealt with it, and we're here now. We keep rolling." Sale is 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA in five career postseason appearances (three starts).

I saw the following statement on ESPN.com. "The first game of the Series will be a rare treat: two true aces in the prime of their careers going toe-to-toe in an old-school starting pitcher showdown." However, is that really the case? Kershaw's postseason record leaves MUCH to be desired and Sale's, in far fewer appearances, is checkered, at best. Plus, just who knows about Sale's health? The Dodgers set a club record with 235 HRs during the regular season and in 87 road games in 2018 (regular and postseason) LA has averaged 5.34 RPG. As for Boston, the Red Sox led all MLB teams in runs, BA and OPS during the regular season plus in 85 home games at Fenway this year, have averaged 5.69 RPG. This one is Goin' Over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST).

The Knicks come in off back-to-back losses to Boston and Brooklyn and they’d appear to be in over their heads here as well as New York soldiers forward to start the season without the services of offensive star Kristaps Porzingis. 

The Bucks come sin off victory over Indiana and Charlotte and they’ll look to dictate and control the pace of this one from the outset.

Kevin Knox has come up big for the Knicks in back-to-back games with double digits in scoring off the bench, but he’d also suffer an ankle injury last time out. Tim Hardaway Jr. is now left to do the heavy lifting for an undermanned Knicks squad.

Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 15 boards and six assists in the most recent win over Indiana for Milwaukee. The Bucks haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but they’ll have an opportunity to pad their defensive stats as well tonight. 

I’ll point out as well that that New York has seen the total go under the number in 18 of its last 32 following a divisional contest, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in 23 of its last 38 following a victory by ten points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Total is on the under Pats/Bears (1:00 EST).

New England enters off a high-scoring shoot-out victory at home over the Chiefs and I think it’ll be more conservative here in this difficult road venue Sunday afternoon. 

Chicago sports one of the best defensive fronts in the league with pass rusher Khalil Mack leading the charge. 

The Pats now also have a legitimate RB threat in Sony Michel, who I expect to see a lot of action today. Last week he had 106 rushing yards with two TD’s. 

Last week the Dolphins’ Brock Osweiler had 380 passing yards and two TD’s against Chicago. But performances like that have been few and far between for the Bears’ defense and a return to form in this important game and on home field is imminent in my opinion. 

I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 26 as an underdog and in 11 of its last 17 at home.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Ohio State/Purdue (7:30 EST).

The second ranked and unbeaten Ohio State Buckeyes have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in QB Dwayne Haskins. 

Ohio State is so far 7-0 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten, most recently pulling away for a convincing 30-14 win over Minnesota. 

Haskins was 33 of 44 for 412 yards and three TDs. Coach Urban Meyer though thinks his team can play even better:

“I don’t think we played particularly well today. We’ll know more when we get a film grade, and I’ll let you know on Monday how they played,” Meyer said post-game. “We gave up three sacks. We have to keep Dwayne upright. Short yardage is not a strength. Red zone is not a strength, and running the ball is not a strength. That’s something we’ve got to get figured out.”

Purdue is 3-3 overall and 2-1 in the Big Ten, but it comes in on top form, having won three straight. 

Most recently the Boilermakers come in off a 46-7 win over Illinois this past Saturday. QB David Blough was 25 of 36 for 377 yards and three TDs and Purdue would roll up 611 yards of total offense, including 150 rushing yards from DJ Knox.

During the win streak Blough has been unstoppable, going for 1,001 yards and seven major scores. 

I’ll point out that Purdue has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 11 of its last 14 as a home underdog and in six of its last eight after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game, while Ohio State has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight as a road favorite and in ten of its last 14 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more.

Two teams firing on all cylinders offensively collide on Saturday night and all signs point to a “shootout.” Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

The first pick of my STP is on the “under” C’s/Raptors 8* (8:05 EST).

Boston enters off a 104-87 win over the 76ers at home, while Toronto finished with a 116-104 home victory in its opener over Cleveland. 

Note that the home team prevailed in all four games last year, with Toronto take the final matchup 96-78 on April 4th. 

Boston didn’t play very well offensively against the 76ers though, shooting only 43.3 percent from the floor, including only 11 of 37 from range. It did force 16 turnovers though, while also holding Philadelphia to just 39.1 percent shooting and 5 of 26 from range. Jayson Tatum led the way with 23 points and nine boards.

Toronto shot decently in its opening win (48.9 percent), but it would go just 14 of 33 from range and only 12 of 20 from the charity stripe. The Raptors did decisively control the boards by a 56-40 margin. Kyle Lowry led the way with 27 points and eight assists, while Kawhi Leonard put up 24 points and 12 boards. 

This is going to be a war each time these teams get together this year and I think the first one falls “under.” 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Mil/LAD Over at 5:05 ET.

Cody Bellinger ended a five hour-plus marathon with an RBI single in the bottom of the 13th, as the Dodgers earned a 2-1 victory in Game 4 to even the NLCS at two games apiece. Bellinger had two hits in Game 4 after going 1-for-21 in the first seven contests during the postseason and Manny Machado scored the winning run after extending his hitting streak to five games (8-for-22). Machado and Tayor are hitting a combined .355 for LA in this series but the rest of the team is batting just .159 against Milwaukee. LA in batting just .205 this postseason, including .201 in the NLCS, where the Dodgers have scored only 11 runs (that's 2.75 per game). Milwaukee isn't exactly 'tearing the cover' off the ball either, batting .231 against LA and averaging 3.5 RPG (14 runs in the four games, so far). However, Milwaukee's starting pitchers have yet to allow a run in the series, although is has to be noted that the group has pitched a modest total of only 14 innings (Gonzalez has drawn two starts but has stayed around for just THREE innings!).

The Game 5 starters for this tie-breaking contest will be Milwaukee's Wade Miley and LA's Clayton Kershaw. Miley does not have a decision in two starts this postseason but has given the Brewers a chance to win in each outing, allowing only five hits and just one walk over 10 1/3 scoreless innings (0.35 WHIP). Miley was 5-2 (2.57 ERA) in 16 starts for Milwaukee in the regular season (Brewers went 12-4) and in 10 road starts this year (including one in the playoffs), he's sparkled with a 2.29 ERA, with Milwaukee going 8-2.

Kershaw was brilliant in his first outing of the playoffs, allowing two hits over eight scoreless innings to beat Atlanta on Oct 5 but his postseason woes surfaced in his Game 1 start at Milwaukee, as he allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits and two walks across just three innings to take a loss in the Brewers' 6-5 victory. Injuries limited Kershaw to 26 starts during the regular season, as he went a modest 9-5. However, he posted a 2.73 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and batters hit only .205 against him.

With neither team hitting well and these two starters, "under" would be a reasonable play. However, I'm not even a little sold on Miley and LA's bats can't stay silent forever! Let me also note that Milwaukee's heralded bullpen has been less than spectacular, as if one removes Hader's 4 2/3 scoreless innings, the remaining relief staff owns a 4.71 ERA against LA. Just as importantly, how can anyone trust Kershaw in the postseason (8-8 with a 4.26 ERA over 26 appearances, including 21 starts)? In fact, he's been at his worst during his NLCS appearances, going 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA in 11 appearances (eight starts). This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck, Larry

My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under 76ers/Celtics.

The 76ers improved by a whopping 24 victory from 16/17 to 17/18. After taking care of Miami in the first round, Philadelphia was then bounced from the second from these very Celtics. 

Philly averaged 109.8 PPG last year but if the 76ers hope to make a real push for the title, clearly they’ll have to get things figured out defensive after allowing an average of 105.3 PPG last year. Big man Joel Embiid led the way with 22.9 points, 11 boards and 1.76 blocks per game, while Ben Simmons added 15.8 points, 8.1 boards, 8.2 assists and 1.73 steals per game. 

Last year the Celtics averaged 104 PPG, while conceding just 100.4. Kyrie Irving led the way until he was injured with 24.4 points and 5.1 assists per game. Irving and Gordon Hayward are both at 100% health and the rest of the team (Marcus Smart, Al Horford and standout Jayson Tatum) remain. 

This one has the feel of an all “war” to me, rather than a wide-open All Star Game style of contest. 

Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Total Wipeout Winner is the under 49ers/Packers (8:15 EST).

The 49ers come in off a 28-18 loss to the Cardinals. After losing starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to injury three weeks ago and sitting at just 1-4, San Francisco’s season is essentially over.

If the 49ers hope to turn things around, the last thing they can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Aaron Rodgers and company.

The Packers have been trading good starts with bad. After a 22-0 win over the Bills, they took a step back in last week’s 31-23 setback to Detroit.

But the Green Bay defense has a big opportunity to redeem itself here against San Francisco back-up QB CJ Beathard, who for the most part has struggled in his forced started role.

Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go under the number in five of its last six off a loss against a division rival, while Green Bay has seen the total go under in four of its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Goin Over Total is on the over Chargers/Browns (1:00 EST).

Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be plentiful.

LA enters off a convincing 26-10 him win over Oakland, while Cleveland posted a 12-9 OT home victory over Baltimore. Last year Philip Rivers beat the Browns 19-10 at home and he’d pass for 344 yards and a TD.

LA comes in averaging 27.4 PPG and it’s conceding 26. The margin for victory is slim. Rivers though has a sparkling 13/2 TD/INT ratio. 

Cleveland is averaging 22.8 PPG and it’s allowing 22.6. RB Carlos Hyde now has 348 rushing yards and five TD’s. 

The Browns defense looked superb last week against a poor passing game (Joe Flacco), but I think the unit will have its hands full today against Rivers’ arial assault. 

Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of its last eight when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3 and in four of its last five as a home dog of three points or less.

Additionally note that LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite.

I think this number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Skins/Saints (8:15 EST).

The Saints will be opening up the playbook today in an attempt to get QB Drew Brees at least 201 passing yards. Brees is on the cusp of becoming the league’s all time passing leader and I look for the veteran pivot to put on a show in front of the home town crowd today.

So that means that the 2-1 Redskins, who come out rested after their bye week, and QB Alex Smith will be forced to match pace. And that suits Smith just fine. So far the veteran has completed nearly 69 percent of his passes for 767 yards with four TD’s and one INT. 

Smith has gotten plenty of help as well from RB Adrian Peterson, who is enjoying a resurgence in the Nation’s capital, so far with 236 yards and three TD’s. 

Brees so far has 75.8 percent of his passes so far this year to go along with 1,295 passing yards with eight TD’s and no INT’s. 

He’s going to benefit greatly today as well from the return of bruising back Mark Ingram. The combo of Ingram and Alvin Kamara makes the Saints offense extremely dangerous, as opposing defenses are forced to stay honest. 

I’m not expecting a lot of defense being played by either side. Not that New Orleans has seen the total go “over” the number in 21 of its last 31 games after a straight up victory of more than 14 points, while Washington has seen the total go over nine of its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. 

This one has the feel of a wide-open shootout, one which is going to be decided by whichever of these hungry team’s has its hands on the ball last.

Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Chargers (4:05 EST).

Oakland comes in off a 45-42 home win over Cleveland, while LA held on for a tough 29-27 victory over San Francisco.

After both teams played to higher-scoring “shoot-outs” last weekend, I’m expecting a much more defensive “chess match” in Week 5.

Raiders’ RB Marshawn Lynch had a big game against the Browns, going for 130 yards. He now had 300 yards rushing and three TD’s. LA is 18th against the run, so look for Jon Gruden to establish the run game throughout tonight.

The weakness in Oakland is on the defensive side, but I think the unit bounces back this weekend.

The Chargers can’t be happy with the way they performed last week, facing the 49ers and a back-up QB as a 14 point fav, they barely held on for the victory.

Philip Rivers continues to be a bright spot for the Chargers, he has 11 TD’s and two INT’s. 

I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten against teams with losing records, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in ten of its last 13 against the division.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on NYY/Bos Over at 7:30 ET.

The Yankee/Red Sox rivalry ranks with the very best in any sport. New York won 100 games during the regular season but still needed to survive a one-game wild card playoff on Wednesday, which the Yankees won 7-2. That victory sends them to Fenway Park on Friday night to face the 108-win Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox set a franchise record for wins during the regular season and ran away with the AL East. However, it's "all even" now, as the first team to three wins will advance to the ALCS. The teams meet in the postseason since 2004, when Boston came from down 0-3 to win four in a row. The Yankees set a MLB record with 267 HRs and rank second in runs scored (5.25 per) and OPS (.781). Boston enters the postseason ranking first in runs scored (5.41 per), BA (.268) and OPS (.792). Boston won the season series 11-8.

The pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, J.A. Happ (17-6, 3.65 ERA) of the Yankees and Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) of teh Red Sox. Happ has been excellent for New York, going 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts (Yanks were 9-2) after being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays. He closed on a strong note, posting a 1.86 ERA in five September outings. Sale spent September trying to build up his pitch count and strengthen his shoulder after two trips to the disabled list. He struggled in his last two outings, allowing a total of five runs on nine hits across eight innings.

How can one trust Sale, who has thrown just 17 innings since July 27 because of a shoulder inflammation problem? What's more, the Red Sox enter the postseason loaded with bullpen questions, as Boston relievers had a cumulative 4.84 ERA over the team's last126 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees' bullpen took care of the last five innings Wednesday night against Oakland and ranked fourth in bullpen ERA (3.38) during the regular season. As for Happ, he surrendered nine runs - four earned - on nine hits over 9 2/3 total innings at Fenway Park this season. It should come as no surprise that MLB's two-best offensive teams averagaed 11.47 RPG in their 19 regular season meetings. That means I'm Goin' Over in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Col/Mil Over at 4:15 ET.

The Milwaukee Brewers posted their NINTH straight victory (24th in their last 31 games) with Thursday's 3-2 (10 inn) win over the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this NLDS. Leading National League MVP candidate Christian Yelich hit a two-run HR and scored the winning run in the 10th (on Moustakas' game-winning RBI), after the Brewers let a 2-0 lead slip away in the ninth inning. Yelich reached base four times (HR, single and two walks) plus stole a base in his postseason debut. The loss was just Colorado's THIRD in its last 13 games.

It's Game 2 of the series late this afternoon at Milwaukee, as Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.55 ERA) will square off against Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50 ERA).

It seems as if Anderson was able to earn this start by scattering four hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings against Washington on Sunday to snap a 13-start winless streak during which he went 0-6 (team was 2-11). "I went through some struggles, but everyone does at some point or another," Anderson said in his press conference. "I was just happy that I was healthy, and I knew if I felt good and I and I stayed healthy and strong, I could find a way to fix it."That's a pretty optimistic outlook for a guy whose last win prior to last Sunday came way back on July 4.

Chacin pitched in Monday's tiebreaker game against the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run on one hit (a solo HR in 5 2/3 innings before departing. The 30-year-old has had a "career season" in 2018, as the Brewers went 23-12 in all of his starts, giving him a plus-$1079 moneyline mark, which ranks 11th-best among all starting pitchers. Chacin played for Colorado from 2009-14. "Pretty much all the guys there are all my friends still, and pretty much all the coaches, too," Chacin said in his press conference. "It's special that I'm going to have the opportunity to pitch against them in the postseason, just happy that I'm going to have a chance to pitch against the Colorado Rockies."

The Brewers only scored three runs in Game 1 but the team missed MANY chances, as they stranded 18 runners! That should change here vs Anderson, who was 'lit up' for seven runs and seven hits (including three HRs) over just four innings in a loss to Milwaukee back on Aug 4. Anderson is 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA in three career matchups against Milwaukee. As for Chacin, he's being asked to pitch on three days' rest and isn't Colorado's lineup overdue to break out? The Rockies have scored just two, three and two runs in their three games this week. Play the Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jets/Jags (1:00 EST).

It’s an important game for both teams. I think this total will eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch.

New York comes in off a 21-17 loss to Cleveland. The Jets had a 14-0 lead, but they were unable to hold on down the stretch. 

Overall though the Jets have been competitive this year, averaging 25.7 PPG and conceding 19.3. Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TD’s and five INT’s through three games.

Jacksonville beat the Patriots and then it fell flat in last week’s 9-6 loss to Tennessee. QB Blake Bortles had 155 yards passing. So far the Jags are averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing just 14.7.

I’ll point out though that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 at home, while New York has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records.

These are two under-performing offenses which come in with something to prove. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under USC/Arizona (10:30 EST).

Arizona has won back to back gams, including a 35-14 victory over Oregon State to open Pac-12 play last Saturday. 

The Wildcats will be tested by USC, which is 2-2 overall and 1-1 in Pac-12 play. Last week JT Daniels threw for 241 yards and three TD’s in his team’s 39-36 come from behind win over WSU.

After that emotional victory though, I do definitely feel that the Trojans are poised for a bit of a letdown this week. Tyler Vaughns was another standout last week with 64 receiving yards and a TD. The run game was strong as well, posting 155 overall. 

Arizona RB JJ Taylor rushed for a career-high 284 yards last week, and he had scoring runs of 62 and 40 yards. QB Khalil Tate has been turned into more of a pocket passer this year; last season he rushed for 1,411 yards and so far this season he has 73 total yards.

But the Wildcats’ defense was the most impressive thing to me last week, holding Oregon State to a season-low 238 yards. Arizona had been horrible defensively before that, but it was a big step in the right direction and I think the unit has a big opportunity to build off that performance against what I believe to be a “gassed” Trojans’ offense.

I’ll point out as well that USC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as an underdog. 

I think the stage is set for more of a defensive battle. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Giants/Texans (1:00 EST).

I’m expecting these two under-achieving and desperate/hungry NFL teams to open up the playbook and put some points on the board this afternoon.

New York enters off a 20-10 road loss to Dallas, while Houston lost 20-17 at Tennessee.

The Giants are desperate here, as it’s virtually impossible to even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards last week, but he was sacked six times. New York has to open up the playbook today, it does not have the luxury of sitting back and hoping that things will start to click (averaging just 14 PPG over the first two, ranked 30th overall.) 

The New York defense has been a bright spot, but the unit faces an equally as hungry 0-2 Texans team today that’s out to make a statement in front of the home town crowd.

QB DeShaun Watson had 310 passing yards in last weeks setback, with two TD’s and an INT. The Texans have also looked decent defensively in the early going, conceding 23.5 PPG. 

Admittedly these are two teams which do not play to many “overs,” but the overall “situation” that each finds itself in coming into this one points to more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a ground-and-pound “chess match” in my opinion. This number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the over Hawks/Bears (8:15 EST).

Neither team can sit back and hope the other one makes the first mistake. Neither can afford that luxury as each comes in desperate after starting the season 0-1. 

The Seahawks are going to have to open up the playbook today after losing WR Doug Baldwin to injury in last week’s 27-24 setback at Denver. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards on seven carries, while TE Will Dissly had three catches for 105 yards and a TD. 

Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a decent game with 298 yards, three TD’s, but also two INT’s. 

The Bears couldn’t hold on in Green Bay in Week 1, falling 24-23 in the end (after having a 24-6 halftime lead.)

Chicago won’t be making that same mistake twice though as I expect the Bears’ offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. QB Mitchell Trubisky had 171 yards, while also running for 32 yards and a TD. 

The Bears looked great defensively in the first half (when QB Aaron Rodgers was sidelined with injury), but the unit didn’t look especially impressive in the second and in the eventual collapse. 

I’ll point out as well that the Seahawks have seen the total go over the number in on their last two Monday Night Football games, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of their last eight following a divisional contest.

This one has all the makings of a wide-open shootout. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry