My 10* Total of the Week is on Washington/Arizona Over at 10:00 ET.

Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 2017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans (big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels) plus added a third with the transfer of guard Quade Green from Kentucky. However, after a 10-2 start, the Huskies' season imploded. Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible after a Jan 5 win against USC and Washington has gone 3-12 without him (lost NINE straight from Jan 18-Feb 20).

Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. Arizona has been in and out of the top-15 all season but is currently unranked (20-10 / 10-7 in Pac 120 as it host Washington in its regular season finale.

Freshman "big men" Stewart (16.6 & 8.7) and McDaniels (12.8 & 5.8) have been as good as advertised, but the loss of Green was just "too much." Washington is locked into last place after winning the Pac-12 regular-season title by three games a year ago but it did spring a 90-83 upset at Arizona State on Thursday night. The Huskies shot 50.8 percent in notching their first conference road victory of the season. Guard Nahziah Carter (12.8 & 5.0) matched his career high with 23 points, while Jaden McDaniels added 16 points off the bench and Isaiah Stewart finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds, the 13th double-double of his standout freshman season.

Arizona entered Thursday’s contest against Washington St with a season-long three-game losing streak and proceeded to fall behind the Cougars 31-29 at the half. However, the Wildcats took charge with a 26-0 run and wound up shooting 58.9 percent over the final 20 minutes, in the 83-62 win. Freshman PG Nico Mannion (14.1 & 5.4 APG) scored a game-high 23 points and also dished out seven assists. Fellow freshmen, the 6-11 Zeke Nnaji (16.4 & 8.5) had 21 points and guard Josh Green (11.9 & 4.6) also finished in double figures (12 points). Green returned to action after a two-game absence due to a back sprain. However, was without 6-10 center Chase Jeter (6.8 & 4.3, who has been suspended for the final two regular-season contests due to a violation of team rules and guard Max Hazard (5/3, who didn’t play for the second time in three games due to unspecified personal reasons.

Here's where we are. Thursday's win lifted Arizona into a four-way tie for third place in the Pac-12 with Colorado, USC and Arizona State. A win here just could help the Wildcats secure a top-four finish and the corresponding first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament in Las Vegas. Mike Hopkins "Boeheim-like zone" has been routinely shredded and I expect Arizona to score in the 80s, as the Wildcats scored 75 points in a three-point win in Seattle back on Jan 30. That said, don't be so sure Washington won't "stay close" and that means  the game could go WAY over this number. Yes, Washington is 4-13 in the Pac-12, but the Huskies have OUTSCORED the opposition by six total points in conference play!!  Washington has made a habit out of dropping the close ones, going 0-7 in league games decided by four points or fewer. Both teams were in the 70s in the first meeting and both are coming off excellent shooting games on Thursday (see above). This one flies over the total.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Ut/Det Over at 7:05 ET.

The Utah Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Utah rebounded to go 4-0 right before the All Star break but returned from the break to lose FOUR in a row. A Feb 28th home win over the Wizards snapped that four-game slide and the Jazz are in Detroit on Saturday, looking to extend their winning streak to FIVE row and to cap the team's a four-game road trip at 4-0. The Jazz are 40-22, which currently gives them the West's No. 4 seed, However, the West's No. 2 through No. 7 seeds are separated by just 5 1/2 games. There are NO playoff considerations for Detroit, which has lost NINE of 10 and checks in a 20-43.

Detroit's lineup has been decimated by injuries and the trade of center Drummond, who was sent packing along with his 17.8 PPG and 15.8 RPG. PG Derrick Rose was recently diagnosed with a Grade 2 ankle sprain and likely won't play again this season. Griffin (15.5 PPG) managed just 18 appearances before being lost for the season and Kennard (15.8) hasn't played since before Christmas. Those four make up Detroit's top scorers this season. Head coach Dwane Casey said he's encouraged by the effort he is receiving from the players. "That's one thing I love about this group, they compete and they are playing hard," Casey told reporters after Wednesday's 114-107 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. "We have a lot of growing up to do, and we have a lot of men in a lot of situations they have not been in before." Detroit erased a double-digit deficit in the second half, but Oklahoma City scored the last eight points. The Thunder shot 69 percent in the first half. "Our defense was probably the worst it's been since I've been here," Pistons coach Dwane Casey said. "The first three quarters were terrible. The fourth quarter, we made a muscle, came out and put our will into the game and played much better." Let me note here that Detroit has allowed an average of 113.6 PPG over its last seven games.

Switching to Utah, the Jazz have 20-point scorers in SG Mitchell (24.4-4.4-4.3) and SF Bogdanovic (20.3) plus a double-double 'machine' in center Gobert (15.3 & 13.9). They also have 'tons' of depth. In particular, Clarkson has averaged 15.8 PPG in 32 games since coming from Cleveland and will enter this game having reached double digits in 14 of the past 16 games. Mitchell and Bogdanovic shot a combined 5-for-24 from the floor in last night's 99-94 win at Boston, so EXPECT a bounce-back here.

Speaking of Boston, the Jazz have played the Celtics twice over their last six games. The other four games have been against the 19-44 Knicks, 17-45 Cavs, 23-39 Wizards and 25-38 Suns. That quartet closely resembles the 20-43 and let me note that those four finals averaged 236.3 PPG, more than 'THREE TDs' higher than the opening over/under number on tonight's contest! It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on UVA/Mia-Fl Over at 9:00 ET.

Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won SIX straight and NINE of 10 to reach 21.7. They are 13-5 and tied with Duke for third in the ACC. Virginia climbed back into AP top-25 at No. 22 on Monday and there is no longer ANY talk of missing the "Big Dance."

Jim Larranga famously led George Mason to the Final Four back in 2006 and has been at Miami since the 2011-12 season. He won 20-plus games in SIX of his first seven years at Miami (four NCAA teams) but the team was just 14-18 last year and now 14-12 this season, including 6-12 in ACC play. The Hurricanes are returning home from a disappointing 1-2 road swing, which included a miserable showing Saturday in a 63-57 loss at Georgia Tech (note: Miami scored a season-low 24 points in the first half).

The 6-9 Diakite and 5-9 PG Clark are the returning starters from last year's defending champs and Diatke leads in scoring at 13.6 PPG, while adding 6.6 RPG. Clark naturally leads the team in assists (6.0) and adds 10.7 PPG. The 6-8 Key joins him in the backcourt and he adds 10.2 PPG and a team-high 7.4 RPG.  Woldetensae is fairly new to the starting lineup and while he's been 'quiet' the last two games (only a combined five points), he had 13.3 PPG his previous eight. 7-1 junior center Jay Huff (8.1 & 6.1) had one of the best games of his career on Saturday in a 52-50 home win over then-No. 7 Duke. He nearly had a triple-double, finishing with 15 points, 10 blocks and nine rebounds.

The Hurricanes are close to full strength with Chris Lykes, Kameron McGusty and Rodney Miller all back from injuries. Lykes (15.2) leads a solid guard trio that also includes Vasiljevic (13.2 & 4.2) and McGusty (13.0 & 4.1). However, freshman guard Isaiah Wong (7.6) had his streak of NINE straight games with double-digit scoring halted with a six-point effort against Georgia Tech. Rodney Miller Jr., Miami's 7-foot, 255-pound redshirt junior center, provides some scoring from the post as well as rebounding, averaging 7.6 points and 5.8 rebounds. He is joined up front by the 6-10 Waardenburg (6.2 & 5.9).

Jim Larranaga (now 70-years-old)  is in danger of having his SECOND straight losing season, which would mark the first time that's happened to him since 1991-93, when he coached at Bowling Green. Not sure Miami can best UVA but I do believe the 'Canes will bounce-back from their 'ugly' effort at Ga Tech. Yes, UVA allows just 52.6 PPG (1st) but Miami averages 72.5 PPG. It's another low total for UVA and the Cavs should not have trouble against a Miami D allowing 74.6 PPG, 301st in the nation. Go Over!

Good lucky...Larry

My 9* play is on Duke/UVA Over at 6:00 ET.

Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won FIVE straight and EIGHT of nine  to reach 20.7. They are 12-5 and solidly in 4th-place in the ACC (no more wavering NCAA Tourney worries). Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils have lost TWO of their last three, one being a 22-point setback at North Carolina State and the most recent a double-overtime defeat at Wake Forest on Tuesday in which the sub-.500 Demon Deacons scored 113 points. Duke is ranked No. 7 in the latest AP poll at 23-5 (13-4 ACC) but all of sudden, UVA can tie Duke for 3rd in the ACC with a home win on Saturday.

"I'm disappointed in our group," Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters Tuesday. "I didn't think we came the way we should and the way we've practiced. We show our youth so much. ... This is our 28th game. You'd hope that we'd be older by now, but we were not tonight." In contrast, the Cavaliers are showing plenty of maturity by surviving a string of close games, as SEVEN of their victories during the 8-1 surge have come by seven points or fewer. I'm no big fan of this Duke team but I won't play against them off that embarrassing loss to Wake. However, Duke averages 83.8 PPG (2nd) and just FOUR of its 28 games ha seen a total close at less than 140 points (note: all FOUR have gone Over!). The over/under here opened 123!!! I'm Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Daytime Dominator is on Florida/Tennessee Over at 2:00 ET.

Expectations were high for Florida entering this season, as the Gators were able to get the most sought after graduate transfer on the market in the 6-10 Kerry Blackshear. The Orlando native played at Va Tech but when Tech head coach Buzz Williams left for A&M, Blackshear decided to 'come home.' The Gators were ranked 6th in both preseason polls but disappointed early on. However, the Gators are coming off one of their most impressive victories of the season, 15-point victory at home over LSU on Wednesday. Florida is now 18-10 and in a three-way tie for 3rd in the SEC at 10-5 (just ONE game back of 11-4 Auburn, the SEC's No. 2 seed). Rick Barnes lost plenty from last year's team, most notably, two-time SEC player of the year, Grant Williams. He then lost senior PG Lamonte Turner (12.3-3.5-7.1) for the season after 11 games to shoulder surgery. The Volunteers get set to host the Gators at just 15-13 overall, including 7-8 in SEC play.

Sophomore SF Keyontae Johnson had a career-high 25 points and 11 rebounds in the win over LSU and now leads the Gators in scoring (14.3 PPG), while adding 7.2 PPG. The 6-10 Blackshera is right behind him at 13.1 PPG and just a little bit ahead of him with 7.5 RPG. PG Andrew Nembhard (11.8 & 5.4 APG) leads an excellent guard trio that also includes Locke (10.1) and Lewis (8.20.

The loss of Turner hurt but the good news was freshman guard Santiago Vescovi surprisingly became eligible in December and he's averaged 11.0-3.4-3.9 in 16 games since joining the team. Veteran guards Bowden (13.8 & 4.0) and Pons (11.0 & 5.4) are both in double figures, as is the 6-9 Fulkerson (12.8 & 6.0). 6-6 freshman Jordan-Jones (7.0 & 5.5) has also been a solid addition.

The Volunteers set themselves up for failure by falling behind 14-1 less than five minutes into the game at Arkansas on Wednesday (lost 86-69). "I am troubled (by it) because it's the same old record. We keep talking about it," head coach Rick Barnes told the media of the slow starts. "It's just guys that aren't doing what they need to do. Just not executing." The Vols should start better here vs Florida (could they start worse?) but slowing the Gators will not be easy. Florida has won FOUR of five (lone loss at now-No. 8 Kentucky) and has averaged 77.0 PPG in those four wins. This over/under is a little low, considering the way Florida's offense is clicking plus noting that SEVEN of Tennessee's last 10 games have gone over. This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on UVA/Va Tech Over at 7:00 ET.

Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost and is now 19-7 and at 11-5, is solidly in 4th-place in the ACC. Mike Young spent 17 years at Wofford, where he led the Terriers to five NCAA appearances, including last season. Wofford defeated Seton Hall 84-68 in LY's Big Dance, giving him the first NCAA Tournament win of his career. He took over at Va Tech, when Buzz Williams used Tech's Sweet 16 appearance last season to take the Texas A&M job. Young lost Va Tech's leading scorer from last year (Alexander-Walker at 16.2) to the NBA and couldn't convince the 6-10 Blackshear (14.9 & 7.5) to stay (he's a graduate transfer at Florida). The Hokies surprised by opening 6-0 and after a two-OT win over UNC on Jan 22, were 14-5 (5-3 in the ACC). However, 'the bottom has fallen out' for Va Tech, with SEVEN losses in its last eight games.

UVA's "Core 4" this season has been its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.8-4.2-6.0) and the 6-8 Key (10.0 & 7.2), teamed with the 6-9 Diatke (13.4 & 6.7) and the 7-1 Huff (8.1 & 6.0). However, after a poor start to the season, Tomas Woldentensae (a 6-5 junior guard from Italy) has emerged as the offensive wild card the Cavaliers have been seeking. He's now 30 of 67 (44.8%) from three-point range over his last eight games, while averaging 13.3 PPG. Virginia has found some nice offensive balance in winning SEVEN of eight (lone 'clunker' was a 50-49 OT win over Notre Dame) and has had a different player lead in scoring in each of its last four games.

While UVA has won seven of eight, Va Tech enters this contest having lost seven of eight. The Hokies dropped an 88-64 decision to then-No. 6 Duke the last time out, sinking to 11th in the ACC (15-12 / 6-10). SEVEN of Va Tech's top-eight scorers are guards. Two freshman lead the way, Landers Nolley II (16.7 & 6.1) and Tyrece Radford (10.4 & 6.3). However, Nolley is mired in a dismal shooting slump that has seen him make just 8-of-44 shots, including 2-of-17 from three-point range, in a three-game stretch. Radford is trending in the other direction and after leading the Hokies with 16 points in the loss to Duke, is averaging 16.3 points over a seven-game span on 57.1 percent shooting. 6-5 SF Horne (7.1 & 4.3) is the lone frontcourt player of note but note that Va Tech's two freshman guards are the team's top rebounders (see above).

UVA has a HUGE edge inside with Diatke and Huff plus while the Cavs are surging, the Hokies' season is slipping away. When these teams met back on Jan 4, UVA won 65-39, as Va Tech was a HORRIFIC 13 of 48 from the floor (27.1%), including 4 of 25 on threes. The Hokies CAN'T shoot that poorly again, plus the Cavs have found, at least for them, an offensive 'groove.' Va Tech averages 70.6 PPG and allows 66.8 PPG on the season, so a LOW over/under like this (total opened 113 and immediately, fell) is VERY tempting. A look at Va Tech's entire schedule finds just THREE over/under numbers (of 27 games) closing at less than 130 points. Va Tech has averaged 75,4 PPG at home this season and will bring its "A-game" against the defending champs, after that 'ugly' 39-point effort Jan 4 in Charlottesville. FOUR of UVA's last five games have gone "over the total,' including the last three. Make it FOUR straight 'overs' here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Eye-Opener is on UVA/Pitt Over at 12 noon ET.

Virginia lost FOUR of five games from Jan 7 thru Jan 20 and that slide began talk that the reigning national champions might not even make the NCAA Tournament, as the Cavs were just 126, including 4-4 in ACC play. However, Virginia appears to finally have found some answers to its season-long search for offensive weapons, as the Cavs cored a season-high 78 points in a 13-point win over Boston College on Wednesday in reaching 10 ACC wins for a school-record eighth straight season (18-7 overall / 10-5 in ACC). UVA looks for its SEVENTH win in its last eight games at Pittsburgh on Saturday, in the only game between the teams this season. Jeff Capel's team lost its SIXTH game in its last eight in Tuesday's 82-67 home loss to No. 8 Florida State, but the head coach Jeff Capel was quick to point out that the team has already surpassed last season's win total and has more ACC wins then the last two years combined.

UVA's "Core 4" this season has been its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.6-4.2-6.6) and the 6-8 Key (10.0 & 7.2), teamed with the 6-9 Diatke (13.5 & 6.6) and 7-1 Huff (8.2 & 6.2). However, after a poor start to the season, Tomas Woldentensae (a 6-5 junior guard from Italy) has emerged as the offensive wild card the Cavaliers have been seeking. In THREE of his previous six games, he'd made six or more three-pointers, and in Wednesday win made four of eight on his way to 14 points. He's now 28 for 60 (46.7%) over his last seven games, averaging 13.7 PPG. Pittsburgh has FIVE guards all playing 28-plus minutes per game, chipping in between 8.9 and 12.4 PPG. Freshman Champagnie leads in scoring (12.4) and rebounding (7.2), while sophomores McGowens (12.1-3.5-3.6) and Johnson (11.8-3.8-5.1) join him in double digits.

Virginia has won four straight in the series and 11 of 12.The Cavs come in off their beat offensive game of the season and the Panthers have struggled on defense, ranking last in ACC games in effective field-goal percentage (51.9) and defensive rebound percentage (66.3). On the season, Pitt scores 65.9 PPG and allows 64.6. Looking at Pitt's entire schedule, this is the lowest over/under number posted on a Pittsburgh game (opened 109). One has to go back to neutral-site games vs Kansas St on Nov 25 (total closed 117.5) and Northwestern on Nov 27 (120) to see anything close to this low. FYI...Both of those games went over, as will this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.

The Indiana Pacers knew Oladipo was not going to get back on the court until right before the All Star break. Oladipo finally returned on Jan 29 and the Pacers beat the Bulls 115-106 in OT, giving them a 31-17 record. However, the Pacers then lost their 1st SIX games in Feb, before ending that skid with an 118-11 win over Milwaukee on Feb 12 (note: Giannis didn’t play!). Indian comes out of the break at 32-23, 15 games back of the NBA-best Bucks. The No. 6-seeded Pacers are hoping to carry the momentum of beating Milwaukee into their final 27 games of the regular season but realistically, Indiana's best hope is to inch past No. 5 seed Philly (35-21) and No. 4 seed Miami (35-20) to earn a first-round bye. The Pacers visit MSG on Friday to face the NY Knicks, a team which has LONG ago shelved any postseason aspirations. It's true that the 17-38 Knicks have gone 13-20 SU since Mike Miller took over on an interim basis for David Fizdale in December (Knicks were 4-18 under Fizdale), but the rest of the season is more about player development and finding out if R.J. Barrett is the piece the team wants to build around for the future.

Here's the latest update on the Indiana star. Oladipo will be playing in his eighth game since missing a little more than a year with a ruptured quadriceps injury. In his first seven games, he averaged 25 minutes and did not play more than 29 minutes in any game (11.1 PPG on just 32.9% shooting). However, head coach Nate McMillan recently told reporters that doctors cleared Oladipo to start playing 32 to 34 minutes, which is on par with his career average of 33.1 minutes per game. Oladipo averaged 31.9 minutes and 18.8 points before getting hurt last season and two years ago, in his first season with the Pacers, averaged 23.1 points while playing 34 minutes. Also arriving with Oladipo from OKC in the trade for Paul George was PF Sabonis, who has developed into an All Star (18.3-12.5-4.8). The Pacers have OUTSTANDING depth with SF Warren (18.5) and PG Brogdon (16.6-4.7-7.3) playing a high levels. Then there are SG Lamb (12.9 & 4.4), center Turner (119. & 6.1) and SF McDermott (10.40 also averaging in double digits.

The Knicks traded away one of their top-two performers this season in SF Morris (19.6 & 5.4) at the deadline, leaving PF Randle (19.3 & 9.60 as the team's lone marquee plyers (and that's a stretch). As noted above, Barrett was the third overall pick of the 2019 draft and management will be;\looking closely at his performance the rest of the way (he starts the second-half averaging 13.6 & 5.1. Reggie Bullock signed with the Knicks in July of 2019 and underwent successful surgery on the next day for a cervical disc herniation. He debuted with the Knicks on January 1, 2020 and is averaging 9.8 PPG. PG Payton (9.7-4.7-6.9) has been decent plus PF Portis (9.4 & 5.3) and center Robinson (9.2 & ) have had their moments.

Indiana's six-game slide began back on Feb 1 with an 'ugly' 92-85 home loss to the Knicks, who were 11-point 'dogs. That defeat snapped a SEVEN-game Indiana winning streak in the series. The Pacers will play SEVEN of their next nine on the road and the team can't afford NOT to win road games against highly beatable teams like the Knicks. I like Indiana in the game but 'LOVE' the total to go over. The Pacers have gone over in EIGHT of their last 10 contests, averaging 115.6 PPG in NINE of the 10. The exception was that 85-point effort on Feb 1 vs the sad-sack Knicks. What's more, the Pacers have allowed 116.7 PPG in NINE of the last 10 games, with the anomaly again being the 92 points allowed against the Knicks on Feb 1. This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on BC/UVA Over at 8:00 ET.

Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it visited Chestnut Hill on Jan 7 to take on Boston College. The Eagles upset UVA 60-53 in that contest and that loss began a midseason slump for the Cavs, as UVA lost three straight and FOUR of five. However, the defending champs have managed to rebound of late with a series of close wins, going 5-1 since that 1-4 stretch.

BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). BC knew it would really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but the Eagles got off to a 4-1 start. However, the team has been exchanging wins and losses for about a month and enters this contest 13-13, including 7-8 in ACC play. Case in point being, losing 85-58 at Miami (Fla) last Wednesday, only to knock off North Carolina State 71-68 on Sunday at home. FYI...BC's seven ACC wins matches its best ACC win total under Christian.

Senior guard Derryck Thornton, USC grad transfer, has been a big addition. He scored 22 points in BC's win over NC St and averages a team-high 13.1 PPG. Freshman guard Jay Heath contributed 16 points in Sunday's win and is second on the team in averaging 12.6 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic (10.5 & 5.2) is the team's third double digit scorer plus the Hamilton brothers, 6-8 sophomore Jairus (9.7 & 4.4) and senior guard Jared (8.1), are quality players. The 6-8 Mitchell (7.2 & 8.4) is the team's leading rebounder plus 6-7 freshman Felder (5.8 & 4.0) has had a nice season.

The Cavaliers' recent surge gives them a 17-7 record (9-5 in the ACC) and has greatly improved their NCAA Tournament resume. This season's UVA team has been led for most of the season by its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.3-4.3-6.1) and the 6-8 Key (9.7 & 7.2). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.7 & 6.5) and the 7-1 Huff (8.0 & 6.2). Those players have been UVA's "Core 4" but recently, junior guard Tomas Woldetensae (6.9) has been the team's breakout star. He scored 27 points in an 80-73 loss at Louisville on (73 points scored are a season-high for UVA this season) and then his three-pointer with 0.8 second remaining was the difference in UVA's 64-62 win Saturday at North Carolina. Also, freshman guard Casey Morsell (4.3 PPG) scored 10 points - more than twice his season average - and collected a career-high three steals at North Carolina.

Revenge should work well for UVA here but note that all FIVE of the team's wins over this current six-game stretch have come by single digits, including two in overtime plus that last-second 64-62 triumph at North Carolina. However, I'm expecting Braxton Key to break out of a three-game slump in which he has produced a total of 12 points on 5-of-19. BC's leading scorer, Thornton, missed the first matchup while Heath led the Eagles to a 60-53 win with 17 points on 6-of-8 shooting. Virginia has won five straight meetings at home vs BC and makes it SIX straight but Goin' Over this VERY low total is "the play!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Virginia/North Carolina Over at 8:00 ET.

North Carolina is already aware it will need to win the ACC Tournament if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament (fat chance!) but defending champion Virginia still has hope that a strong finish will help it avoid a similar fate. The Cavaliers held on for a 50-49 overtime home victory Tuesday over Notre Dame, prevailing despite making only one FG over the final 6 1/2 minutes of regulation and settling for just THREE free throws in the extra period. As for the Tar Heels, they hit a new low on Tuesday, falling into last place in the ACC following a 74-57 loss at Wake Forest three days after nearly upsetting No. 7 Duke. North Carolina is in the midst of its third losing streak of at least four games in 2019-20, something that had never happened in program history prior to this season.

I'm just "cutting to the chase" for this one. Virginia's 'ugly' performance against Notre Dame (just 50 points in a 45-minute OT win), followed UVA's best offensive effort of the season in the Cavs' previous game. UVA lost 80-73 at Louisville (a good defensive team!), shooting 53.1% overall, including 11 of 22 on threes (went just 5 of 20 on threes vs ND!). As for the Tar Heels, they shot 33.3% for the game, including an abysmal 1 of 16 on threes against Wake (a notably poor defensive team), coming off a 98-96 OT loss vs Duke. Against Coach K's team, North Carolina shot 52.2% for the game and had 84 points in regulation.

As Vince Lombardi one famously cried out, "What the hell is going on out there!" When these two schools met at Charlottesville back on Dec 8, they combined to shoot 22.6% on threes in a 56-47 UVA win. With both coming off horrendous shooting efforts on Tuesday, my bet is we'll see some 'real' basketball played. Go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Orl/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 11:00 ET Thursday morning.

My CBB 10* Total of the Week is on Clemson/Virginia Over at 7:00 ET.

Clemson's Brad Brownwell is in his 10th year as the school's head coach and the season is NOT going well. He led the Tigers to an NCAA bid in his first season but over the next eight years, made just one NCAA appearance (Sweet 16 trip in 2018 in which Clemson won 25 games). However, the Tigers settled for the NIT last season and just 20 wins. Clemson returned just ONE starter this season and currently sits 11-10, including 5-6 in ACC play as it travels to Charlottesville to take on Virginia. The Cavs won the national championship last April (school's first-ever) and began the season ranked 11th in the AP preseason poll. UVA opened 7-0 and was ranked 5th when they Cavs lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. The Cavs began 2020 with a dominating 65-39 win over Va Tech (Jan 4), giving them an 11-2 overall record, including 3-0 in the ACC but then lost THREE in a row (all league games), before winning THREE of their last four.

6-8 junior forward Aaamir Simms leads Clemson in scoring (13.3) and rebounding (7.6), while senior guard Tevin Mack is the only other player averaging in double figures scoring (12.1 PPG and 5.5 RPG). Sophomore guard John Newman III (9.6) is just shy of double digits and the reason is that he hasn't scored in double figures since posting 14 at Duke on Jan 14. Clemson is coming off perhaps its worst game of the season, losing 56-44 at Wake Forest (Demon Deacons are 10-11 overall, including 3-8 in ACC play). The Tigers connected on just 30.5% of their shots, including a 4 of 21 (19.0%) effort on threes.

Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). Those current NBA players have proven hard to replace. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.2 & 7.4) and 5-9 PG Clark (10.3-4.5-5.9). The team's most consistent player is 6-9 senior forward Mamadi Diakite, who leads the team in scoring (13.5) and is second to Key in rebounding (6.9). The 7-1 Huff (8.4 & 6.0) joins Diatka up front and this "Core 4" represents Virginia's main contributors, although three other guards do combine to chip in 14.5 PPG.

UVA is once again the nation's best defensive team, allowing just 50.7 PPG on 35.8% shooting (rank 1st in both categories). So why go "Over?"  Clemson's going nowhere this season but the team CAN"T possibly shoot as poorly as it did the last time out, even against UVA's great D. Note that Clemson shoots 42.4% on the season (NOT 30.5% like vs Wake), including 31.6% on threes (NOT 19.0% like vs Wake). In fact, Clemson is averaging 67.9 PPG on the season (more than three 'TDs' higher than the 44 it scored vs Wake). As for Virginia, the team's ov/un lines on games have averaged 112.0 (closing number) over its last 10, with SEVEN of then Goin' Over! Expect a final in the mid-120s or higher!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Loy-Chi/Sou Ill Over at 8:00 ET.

Porter Moser's Loyola-Chicago Ramblers made that great run to the Final 4 in 2018, finishing with 32 wins. Last year's team won a more modest 20 games, after losing in the NIT's first round. Gone from last season were Custer and Townes, who won back-to-back POY honors in the MVC, as well as Ingram. However, the Ramblers are making a strong run at winning the MVC this season. However, the Ramblers lost a tough one this past Sundat at Cedar Falls, losing 67-62 in OT to Northern Iowa. Loyola-Chicago fell to 14-7 overall and 6-2 in the MVC, dropping them into a tie with Northern Iowa for first place.

Southern Illinois is coming off a 17-15 season (10-8 in MVC play) and opened the year with a new head coach, Bryan Mullins. Mullins was the starting point guard on SIU's 2007 Sweet 16 team and is in Southern Illinois' Hall of Fame. Ironically, he's spent the last four years as an under Porter Moser at Loyola. Southern Illinois improved to 11-10 overall and 5-3 in MVC play following its 58-55 victory at Illinois State on Saturday. The victory was the first for the Salukis at Redbird Arena since 2006.

Three starters did return for Loyola this season and are contributing as expected. 6-9 center Krutwig leads in scoring (15.2), rebounding (8.13 and assists (4.5). He led the Ramblers with 19 points and 14 rebounds in Sunday's loss. Guard Williamson chips in 8.9 & 3.5 and the 6-7 Uguak adds 5.3 & 3.2. Also making a big impact are 6-6 swingman Hall (13.8 & 4.1), a JC transfer, and freshman guard Kennedy (9.0). Keith Clemons averaged 15.1 points and 5.1 assists per game in 2018-19, while helping Vincennes to a 34-2 overall record and the NJCAA Division I national championship, became eligible at the start of December and has averaged 8.8 points in 13 games.

Marcus Domask is a 6-6 freshman aswingman and he is the leading scorer for Southern Illinois with an average of 14.1 PPG (also adds 5.2 RPG), while the 6-10 Barret Benson is the leading rebounder with an average of 5.4 per game, while adding 9.7 PPG. Senior guard McGill (10.3 & 4.3) and freshman guard Jones (7.30 are the team's top-producing guards but SIU has depth on the perimeter, as four other guards are combining for 17.5 PPG.

Loyola is holding opponents to 60.5 PPG (15th) but while the Ramblers average 69.5 PPG, the team shoots 50.9% from the floor (3rd-best in the nation). This is a VERY low over/under number but note that here at home, SIU lost early in the season to San Francisco at SIU Arena but has since won EIGHT in a row at home. The Salukis check in 9-1 at home, averaging 67.9 PPG. The Salukis were awful at Loyola back on Jan 16, shooting 36.0% from the floor, including 4 of 25 on threes, while scoring just 48 points. Revenge may be the way to go but even more, I expect SIU to play and shoot MUCH better plus I'm NOT discounting Loyola's 50.9% shooting, either. This LOW total is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Virginia/Wake Forest Over at 12:00 ET.

Virginia won the national championship last April (school's first-ever) but the Cavaliers appear to be just another middle-of-the-pack ACC team as January 2020 nears its end. The Cavs began the season ranked 11th in the AP preseason poll and opened 7-0. They were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4 and as 2020 dawned, the Cavs began with a dominating 65-39 win over Va Tech (Jan 4), giving them an 11-2 overall record, including 3-0 in the ACC. However, the Cavs have lost FOUR of their last five, as they try to "right the ship" Sunday at Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons have also lost four of five after Tuesday's 71-68 defeat at Clemson, leaving them 9-9 overall and just 2-6 in ACC play (Cavs are 4-4)

Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). Those current NBA players have proven hard to replace. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.2 & 7.2) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.8-4.3-5.9). The team's most consistent player is 6-9 senior forward Mamadi Diakite, who leads the team in scoring (13.1) and is second to Key in rebounding (6.8). The 7-1 Huff (9.0 & 6.1) joins Diatka up front and this "Core 4" is basically Virginia's team this season.The Cavs broke a three-game slide witha 63-58 win at Ga Tech on Jan 18th but dropped a 53-51 decision at home Monday to North Carolina State, after fighting back from an 11-point, second-half deficit to take a four-point lead with 4 1/2 minutes left. Clark led the offense with 10 points Monday and  Diakite blocked three shots to move into third on Virginia's career list with 142. Freshman guard Casey Morsell (4.6 PPG) tallied nine points and five rebounds in 32 minutes off the bench. However, after shooting 47.2% in the win over Ga Tech, the Cvs shot just 36.0& against the Wolfpack.

Danny Manning is now in his sixth season as Wake's head coach and it would be hard to say that things are headed in the right direction. He had just ONE winning season in his first five (65-93, .411 overall) and as noted, is 9-9 (2-6 ACC) so far this season. The Demon Deacons led by six at the half against Clemson but the Tigers rallied and freshman Ismael Massoud's game-tying three-point attempt missed in the closing seconds. Wake has THREE double digit scorers in veteran guard Childress (15.2 & 4.7 APG) and Brown (13.3 & 6.5) plus 7-0 junior center Sarr adds 13.0 & 9.5. The bad news is, Brown is out with a leg injury. Sarr had 16 points and 12 rebounds vs Clemson (his seventh double-double of the season), while Childress added 14 points and six assists. Andrien White (8.8 points), a grad transfer from Charlotte, scored a season-high 22 points.

Virginia has won SEVEN straight in the series, including three straight at Wake Forest. The Cavaliers won 68-45 at home in last season's lone meeting. The Cavs are shooting just 40.4 percent on the season but 'getting well' vs Wake Forest seems HIGHLY-LIKELY! The Demon Deacons rank 13th in the ACC in defensive efficiency (108.8 points per 100 possessions), are last in forcing turnovers (13.3 percent) and 14th in two-point field-goal percentage (53%).Yes, UVA is allowing just 49.7 PPG (1st) but Wake is averaging 72.5 PPG. Wake games have averaged 147.9 PPG over its last nine, with those contests going 8-0-1 in favor of the Over. On average, Wake's last nine game totals are 4 'TDs' HIGHER than the opening total of this one. This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Orl/Gold St Over at 8:35 ET.

The Orlando Magic came to LA and split their back-to-back games against the Lakers and Clippers. The Magic knocked off the Lakers 119-118 on Wednesday but ran out of gas against the Clippers the next night, falling 122-95. However, the Magic are playing well enough as of late to not be satisfied with going 1-1 against two of the best teams in the league on the road.at 20-22, Orlando can get to .500 on the season with a win tonight at Golden St and Monday at Charlotte, as the team caps its six-game road trip. Meanwhile, the Warriors are putting up good fights against some of the best teams in the league but can't seem to find their way into the win column. suffered their 10 straight loss with a 134-131 overtime setback against Denver on Thursday. The 9-34 Warriors own the NBA's worst record, although the 10-33 Hawks are not far behind.

Orlando PG Markelle Fultz recorded a triple-double with 21 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists against the Lakers but struggled along with the rest of his teammates against the Clippers, totaling 11 points on 5-of-17 shooting, five assists and four rebounds in 30 minutes. Fultz (11.7-3.4-46) is getting more time these days, with DJ Augustin (10.7 & 4.2 APG) sidelined for at east the next 3-to-4 weeks. Swingman Fournier (19.1) leads the team in scoring, followed by center Vucevic (18.9 & 11.1) and PG Gordon (13.6 & 7.3). Ross has come off the bench all season and is averaging 13.3 PPG.

Golden State showed some of the form that made it such a dangerous team over the last several years by handing out 36 assists on 42 Fgs and placing seven scorers in double figures on Thursday, but is still missing the talent that allowed it to throttle teams on both ends of the floor. The Warriors are missing go-to scorers with Stephen Curry (hand) and Klay Thompson (knee) injured and lack the defensive punch that Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston provided. D'Angelo Russell (23.1 & 6.2 APG) had 19 points despite his second straight woeful shooting performance. He followed up a 5-for-17 effort in Tuesday's 124-97 setback to Dallas with a 6-of-18 performance against the Nuggets. Alec Burks (15.9-3.9-4.7) led the team with 25 points in 32 minutes off the bench Thursday while Damion Lee, who signed a multi-year deal with the team on Wednesday, scored 21 points. He's averaging 12.7 & 5.3. Glenn Robinson III (12.3 & 4.8).

Here's the bottom line. Orlando leads the NBA by allowing just 104.3 PPG but just allowed 118 and 125 points in LA. Sure, the Warriors are NOT the Lakers or Clippers but I expect the Magic to have an easy time scoring against Golden St , which allows 113.7 PPG (20th). When these teams met back in Orlando on Dec 1, the final was100-96. the Magic won that one and should win this one but look for a MUCH higher scoring game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on UVA/FSU Over at 7:00 ET.

Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. However, the defending champs have lost back-to-back games for the first time since 2017, falling 60-53 at BC on Jan 7 and then 63-55 (OT) at home to Syracuse on Jan 11. The 11-4 Cavs fell out of the AP's latest top-25 poll on Monday and will look to avoid a three-game slide when they pay a visit to No. 9 Florida State. The Seminoles are 14-2and have won THREE of their last five meetings with Virginia, including a 69-59 win in last year’s ACC tournament semifinals. Florida State has won SEVEN straight games, most recently winning at then-No. 7 Louisville 78-65 on Jan 4 and following that with a second straight road win, 76-68 at Wake Forest on Jan 8.

The Cavaliers still lead the nation in scoring defense (48.7 PPG) and field goal percentage defense (34.6%), but are struggling on the offensive end while connecting on 39.9 percent of their shots from the floor. Virginia shot a season-low 31.3 percent from the floor against Syracuse and made only SEVEN of its season-high 31 three-point attempts (22.6 percent). 6-9 senior forward Mamadi Diakite leads the team in scoring (12.9), but has managed just 8.3 PPG over the past four. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.5 & 7.7) and 5-9 PG Clark (10.1-4.5-5.9). The 7-1 Huff (8.9 & 6.1) joins Diatka up front and this "Core 4" is basically Virginia's team this season.

Leonard Hamilton-coached teams are always known for playing excellent defense but his teams have shown more offensive 'punch' the last few seasons. That's continued in the 2019-20 season, as the Seminoles are holding opponents to 63.4 PPG, but are also scoring 76.4 PPG, The Seminoles wear down teams with their depth and balance on offense, as the top-four scorers produce between 8.8 and 12.3 PPG. Sophomore guard Devin Vassell has averaged 15 points the last three games and now leads the team at 12.3 PPG, just ahead  of senior guard Trent Forrest (12.2-3.9-3.9), who notched his first double-double of the season against Wake Forest (14 points & 10 rebounds). Junior guard M.J. Walker combined to score 38 points in his last two games and is third on the team at 11.6 PPG. The 6-8 Williams (8.8 & 3.3) ranks fourth on the team in scoring, while the 6-9 Osborne (6.4 & 5.2) and guard Polite (6.1) are also regular contributors.

The Cavs are only averaging 55.7 PPG and as of Monday, the only Division I schools putting fewer points on the board were Maryland-Eastern Shore (54.3) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (52.1). That said, if UVA only reaches its average, this game should have little trouble 'flying' over. As noted, FSU is averaging 76.4 PPG and is 8-0 at home this season and has won its last four conference games by double-digit margins. The Seminoles  lead the ACC in free throw shooting (75.9 percent), which is a bonus if the game is close. What's more, FSU last played Jan 8, giving the team a nice, but NOT too long, 'breather.' The Seminoles have played 16 games and just TWO, over/under numbers have closed at less than 130 points (opening total here was 111). I expect UVA to bring its "A" game in this one (remembering that loss to FSU in the ACC tourney, while looking to avoid a THIRD straight loss) and while I'm not convinced that will be good enough for a "W," I do expect this final to be in the 130s.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Cha/Ut Over at 9:05 ET.

The Utah Jazz  lost 104-90 at OKC back on Dec 9 (sixth lost in eight games) but have since won 12 of 13 to move to 25-12. Utah is currently the West's No. 5 seed but the Jazz are just ONE game behind the West's No. 2 seed! The Charlotte Hornets visit Salt Lake City tonight and enter having lost EIGHT of 10. The Hornets are only 15-25 but are still 'thinking' postseason, as the East's No. 7 and No. 8 seeds are just 18-20 and 16-20, respectively.

Charlotte lost 112-110 in OT to the visiting Toronto Raptors on Wednesday. Terry Rozier scored 27 points in the loss to the Raptors and is averaging 28.5 points over the past four games. He's averaging 18.3-4.3-4.4 on the season, just behind fellow guard Devonte Graham (18.9-3.9-7.8). Both were 1st round draft picks and that's a theme as one scrolls down the team's roster. Bear with me. PF Washington (12.5 & 5.5), Miles Bridges (12.5 & 5.6). Cody Zellar (11.7 & 7.4), Malik Monk (8.7) Bismack Biyombo (7.5 & 5.9) and Marvin Williams (7.3) are also ALL 1st round picks. Should this team really be 10 games below .500?

Utah thought signing free-agent PG Conley would be HUGE but Conley (13.6 PPG on 36.5% shooting) has underwhelmed and it CAN'T go unnoticed that he's played in just ONE of Utah's games during its 12-1 streak! Backup point guard Emmanuel Mudiay scored a season-high 20 points in the Wednesday's 128-104 win over the Knicks and he said the team's style of play allows everybody on the roster to contribute. "I think the main thing is getting out in transition. Playing fast-ball basketball and we've been doing a great job of that. It's just fun. Everybody's touching it and everybody's feeling involved, that's the main thing." Mudiay is averaging 7.8 PPG (zero starts). Mitchell (24.7-4.5-4.4) is a star, Bogdanvich is averaging a a career-high 20.9 PPG in his first season with Utah and center Gobert (14.6 & 10.8) just continues to produce.

The Jazz have won their last 12 home meetings with the Hornets and are a superb 24-5 against them in games played in Salt Lake City. Utah won both games vs the Hornets last season and beat them 114-107 in Charlotte earlier this season. Those three finals averaged 221.3 PPG and is one of the reasons I'm playing this game "over." More importantly, Utah has topped 100 points in all 13 games of its 12-1 run, averaging a 'healthy' 114.7 PPG in that stretch. Maintaining that average here against the Hornets should not be difficult, meaning that if the Hornets have a "typical" effort (Charlotte averageds104.6 PPG), this contest should safely go over the total. I expect the final to in the mid-220s or higher.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* CBB Total of the Week is on UVA/BC Over at 7:00 ET.

Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA is currently 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th as it visits Boston College (8-6, 2-1) in Chestnut Hill, Ma. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). BC got off to a 4-1 start but then lost FOUR in a  row. The Eagles followed with FOUR straight wins (including 73-72 at Notre Dame) but were dismantled by Duke 88-49 last Tuesday at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Virginia has barely been tested in ACC play thus far. The Cavaliers have held their first three conference opponents to an average of 40.0 PPG, while the average margin of victory has been 16.3 points. The most lopsided of those three conference victories was a 65-39 rout of Virginia Tech on Saturday, in which the Hokies shot 27.1 percent from the floor. This season's UVA team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.3 & 7.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.8-4.4-5.9). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.2 & 6.8) and the 7-1 Huff (8.6 & 6.1).

BC really misses Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad transfer Derryck Thornton has been a big addition, averaging a team-high 13.3 PPG (3.1 RPG & 3.4 APG). Freshman guard Heath (12.0) joins him in the backcourt, while the 6-11 Popovic (11.8 & 5.9) is the team's third double digit scorer. The Hamilton brothers are 6-8 sophomore Jairus (9.1 & 4.1) and senior guard Jared (8.4), while the 6-8 Mitchell (7.7 & 8.7) is the team's leading rebounder.

I've already played two UVA games "over" and have won BOTH times. Here's why I believe I'll make it 3-0. UVA's Key is a unique talent and missed three games in late-Nov and early-Dec (DNP in the Purdue loss) and it took him a couple of games to work himself back into top form. He's been excellent in UVA's last two contests, combining to score 33 points on 15-23 (65.2%) shooting, while grabbing 17 rebounds. More notably for me is that the Cavs have scored 65 points in each of those contest (10 points more than the team had been averaging). BC just allowed 88 points to Duke and on the season, is allowing 67.1 PPG. No reason to think the Cavs can't get 70-plus points in this one. Sure, BC has to go against the Cavs defense (No. 1 in both allowing 46.7 PPG on 34.0% shooting) but BC can't possibly shoot as badly as the team did at Duke (see above). First off, this game is at home and note that BC has averaged 66.3 PPG on the season. I check of the team's mot recent games reveals BC playing FOUR straight unders but the finals of those games averaged 128.3 PPG, with no game finishing lower than 123 points. This Over/Under number is about two 'TD's' lower than that 128 PPG average. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

10-2 Navy (No. 23 in the CFP rankings) will take on unranked on Kansas State (8-4) in the Liberty Bowl on Tuesday. The two programs are used to playing in bowl games, as Navy will be appearing in its 15th bowl game in the last 17 years, while Kansas State will make its ninth bowl appearance in the last 10 seasons. 2018 was a bit of an anomaly for both schools, as neither played in a bowl game. Navy went just 3-10 and Kansas St 5-7 finished 5-7 in the swan song of iconic coach Bill Snyder, who retired for a second time after the season. Ken Niumatalolo led the Midshipmen to biggest turnaround of any FBS program from last season, while Chris Klieman, who led North Dakota St to four FCS national championships over the previous five seasons, guided the Wildcats to a tie for third place in the Big 12, the school's best finish in conference play since 2014.

The Wildcats are led by QB Skylar Thompson (2,191 passing yards and 402 rushing yards), who accounted for 22 TDs (12 passing, 10 rushing) this season and became the fourth player in school history with more than 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards on the ground. Gilbert is the team's leading rusher (698 yards / 5.2 YPA / 6 TDs) for a running game averaging 190.5 YPG (37th). The team's top-two pass-catchers are Schoen (35 catches) and Knowles (22) but both have excellent averages of 16.2 and 15.9 YPC. The Wildcats are averaging 30.7 PPG (54th) and the Kansas State defense allows 21.5 PPG (28th). Most impressively, the defense has been VERY opportunistic, ranking No. 1 nationally in third-down efficiency (25.9%), while holding 11 of 12 opponents below their season scoring averages.

Perhaps no team in the country has its fortunes tied to one player more than Navy, which features dual-threat QB Malcolm Perry Perry shattered a few single-season school records on his way to the 304-yard performance against Army, boosting his rushing total to 1,804 yards to eclipse the mark previously held by Napoleon McCallum, while also establishing a new standard with 2,831 yards of total offense. Perry's ninth consecutive 100-yard rushing performance and 10th of the season are also school records. RB Carothers is also a threat with 712 yards and 14 TDs. Overall, Navy averages a nation-best 363.8 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPA with 51 rushing TDs. Perry's outstanding game vs Army overshadowed a stellar effort by the defense, which limited Army to 148 yards of total offense. Navy allowed 33.5 PPG on 426.0 YPG last season but in 2019, has allowed just 22.8 PPG (38th) on 326.3 YPG (22nd).

Navy has won four of its last five bowl games and while this will be Klieman's first FBS bowl game, he has lots of postseason experience by winning four of the previous five FCS titles not to mention serving as an assistant to Craig Bohl for another three Bison FCS title winners. I respect K-St and Klieman but preparing for the Navy option is no easy task. Contrary to popular opinion, a couple of extra weeks is not always enough. It should also be noted that Niumatalolo has used extra prep times wisely in recent bowls, covering his last FIVE.

Is Navy the play? I like the Midshipmen but I 'LOVE' the Over in this one. I noted above the great improvement this year by the Navy D but look deeper. When you do, you'll find that Navy allowed 35.6 PPG against the five bowl teams it payed this season, while holding the other seven opponents to just 13.6 PPG. That's quite a disparity. Yes, the Kansas St defense has had a very good year but again, trying to slow down Perry and the Navy option is often like 'chasing windmills.' This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My CBB 10* Total of the Week is on Sac St/Montana Over at 9:00 ET.

It's a Big Sky matchup Monday night, as 7-3 Sacramento St visits Bozeman to take on 5-7 Montana. The Hornets have the better record but have opened 0-1 in league play, while the Grizzlies are 1-0 to open conference play. Sacramento St hasn't won more than 15 games in each of the previous four seasons, with last year's 15-16 record being the "high-mark" during that span. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are coming off a 26-9 season, its second straight 26-win season, each ending with an NCAA appearance.

However, FOUR starters are gone from last yea's team, although the 6-5 Pridgett will be the best player on the floor tonight, as he averages 20.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG. The team's only other double-digit scorer is guard Manuel, who played last season after transferring from Ore St.  The 6-4 redshirt senior averaged 8.7 PPG last season but is up to 12.9 this season. The Hornets' feature FIVE players scoring between 7.4 and 13.5 PPG, with 6-8 senior center Patton (13.5 & 5.1) leading the way, while the 6-7 Esposito adds 9.6 & 5.7. Sacramento St's strength is a defense allowing just 53.5 PPG (3rd) on 35.8% shooting (6th).

OK, so why am I going over? All FIVE of Montana's wins this season have come at home in Dahlberg Arena (5-1), with the Grizzlies averaging 72.5 PPG with the final scores of the team's six home contests averaging 137.5 PPG. These schools met THREE times last season and the finals totaled, 153, 154 and 152. How about that for consistency? With this total in the mid-120s, I CAN'T resist Goin' Over. Are you with me?

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Sac/Den Over at 8:05 ET.

The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season. Center Nikola Jokic led Denver in scoring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). Jokic's numbers were down at the start of the year but his recent hot streak is keeping the Denver Nuggets in the win column. He had season-high 31 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists in Saturday's 119-110 victory over the Grizzlies, his FOURTH fourth triple-double in nine games. It was Denver's EIGHT win in its last nine games and the Nuggets check into this home contest with Sacramento at 22-9, just 2 1/2 games back of the Lakers for the West's best record. In stark contrast, the Kings watched their losing streak reach SIX in a row with a 112-110 home loss to the Phoenix Suns on Saturday (note: Suns had lost EIGHT in a row), the FIFTH time during the streak that they fell by single digits. The 12-20 Kings are making a one-game stop on the road tonight in Denver, before heading home for another four straight (Sacramento is 6-12 away from home, so far)..

Harrison Barnes had a chance to win the game on Saturday but was off the mark on a three-pointer in the final seconds, adding a disappointing note to an otherwise solid night in which he collected 21 points and 10 rebounds for his second straight double-double. Barnes continues to be a consistent scorer since leaving Golden St, first for the Mavs and now for the Kings (he''s averaging 17.7 & 5.3). Sacramento 'loves' its guard duo of Hield (20.3 & 5.0) and PG Fox (17.6-4.0-6.4). A worry here is that Fox sat out last night with back spasms and is day-to-day. The 6-11 Bagley (13.7 & 6.9) will definitely miss (foot problem) but the 6-10 Holmes (12.7 & 8.6) and the 6-10 Bjelica (1.3 & 6.0) are solid players few fans know about. Swingman Bogdanovic has not started once but adds 15.0 PPG off the bench.

Jokic is now averaging 18.1-10.0-6.9 and is joined up front by PF Millsap (12.4 & 5.8) and swingman Barton (17.4- 7.0-3.5), while PG Murray (17.2-4.4-4.5) and Harris (10.4) start in the backcourt. Millsap (quad) may miss but Denver's bench is a formidable unit. Forwards Grant (9.9), Plumlee (6.8 & 5.7) and Beasley (6.6) plus PG Morris (6.8 & 3.7 APG) are ready and waiting. Here's my take. Both teams played last night and in Denver's case, the Nuggets will embark on a five-game road trip starting Tuesday in Houston. I expect a strong game from Denver. Meanwhile, the Kings, are 0-6 SU & ATS entering this contest, allowing 113.0 PPG in that stretch. However, while they are 0-6 ATS, FIVE of the losses have been in single digits. These teams have played twice this season (both in Sacramento), with each being low-scoring contests. The Nuggets won the first one 101-94 and then lost the second, 100-97 in OT. NO low-scoring game here, as this one 'flies' over the total!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Jax Over at 4:25 ET.

The abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck near the end of this year's preseason was a jolt to the Colts, who were coming off a 10-win season which also included a wild card win at Houston. However, the Colts would open the 2019 season 5-2, including wins over eventual division winners KC and Houston. QB Jacoby Brissett played MUCH better than expected and Marlon Mack led one of the league's best running games. Indy's good fortune did not last though, as the Colts lost SIX of their next seven games, before beating hapless Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. Indy now hopes to win here at Jacksonville, to finish 8-8.

The Jags "gave up" on Blake Bortles and signed Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract in March but Foles broke his left clavicle in the first quarter of the team's Week 1 game. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and completed his first 13 passes (finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs). Minshew was reasonably effective at QB and the Jags reached the mid-point of the season at 4-4 but has since lost SIX of seven, winning only in Week 15 at Oakland 20-16, after trailing 16-3 at the half. The 5-10 Jags will finish with a losing record for the EIGHTH time in nine seasons. "A very disappointing year," head coach Doug Marrone told reporters. "It's difficult when a team is not doing well. You want your team to be doing well so your fans can have some pride and joy. ... I'm truly sorry that I've let so many people down and that I couldn't have done a better job."

The Colts were embarrassed  34-7 on MNF at New Orleans two weeks ago but ended a four-game slide by routing Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. However, let's note that the Panthers have lost SEVEN in a row. Brissett is completing 61.6% for 2,780 ayrds (18 TDs / 6 INTs) but his recent struggles have cast some doubt on his future as the team's starting QB. He has completed just 52.5 percent of his passes with 8.9 yards per completion over his last two games. Running backs Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins combined for 179 rushing yards and a pair of scores in the win over the Panthers and despite missing some time late in the season, Mack has run for 1,014 yards (4.4 YPA / 6 TDs), giving him his first 1,000-yard season. The Colts are averaging 133.2 YPG, giving them the league's 4th-best rushing attack. Indy's best receiver T.Y. Hilton has been fighting injuries all season (just 42 catches and 5 TDs) but he is active for this one. Indy's defense has been "average' all season, allowing 22.3 PPG (15th) on 346.4 YPG (16th).

Nick Foles came back from that Week 1 injury but did not play well. Minshew's fast start created some buzz in Jacksonville but his play has been a bit more uneven since he regained the starting role from Nick Foles at the beginning of the month. Minshew completed just 13-of-31 passes in last week's 24-12 loss at Atlanta, but he does have five TD passes and just one interception in four December starts. Will the Jags 'eat' Foles' contract and go with Minshew (2,976 pasing yards with a 18-5 ratio plus 337 rushing yards on 5.4 YPA) in 2020. We don't hear much about Leonard Fournette these days but he's had quite a season, rushing for 1,152 yards (4.3 YPA & 7 TDs) plus he's caught 76 passes. Second-year WR Chark has also 'flown under the radar,' catching 69 passed with eight TDs. The Jacksonville defense checks in allowing 25.1 PPG (22nd) on 382.1 YPG (27th).

Indy head coach Frank Reich has made one thing clear since his team was eliminated from the playoffs by New Orleans on Monday Night Football on Dec 16; "There's nothing meaningless about finishing this season with back-to-back wins and avoiding their second losing season in three years." Frank Reich is 8-3-1 ATS in division games and his teams can be counted on for a full effort. As for the Jags' Doug Marrone, he may not be back. Personnel chief Tom Coughlin was identified as the franchise's biggest problem and was fired on Dec 18. Marrone could really use his Jags to bring their "A game" in this one. He can't count on his D (see above) and note that Jacksonville has given up an average of 469 YPG over the last three weeks. For the Jags to win (even compete) here, they will need to score, That's why I'm saying "O-V-E-R!"

Good luck...Larry

 

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Oak/LAC Over at 4:05 ET.

The 6-8 Oakland Raiders and the 5-9 Los Angeles Chargers have nothing to play for entering Sunday's meeting in Carson, Ca. The two longtime AFC West rivals are both coming to the end of disappointing seasons. The Raiders have lost their last FOUR games, including this past Sunday's 20-16 defeat to the Jags. The Raiders led 16-3 at the half but the Jags rallied to score the game's final 17 points, handing the Raiders a loss in their final home game in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Chargers have dropped FOUR of their last five, including last Sunday's 'ugly' 39-10 home loss to the Vikings, as Rivers threw three INTs plus lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

Oakland QB Derek Carr has completed a career-high 70 percent of his passes for 3,372 yards with 19 TDs and eight INTs but hasn't recorded a 300-yard outing this season. In fairness to Carr, he's got a very average (I'm being VERY kind) group of WRs, with TE Waller leading the team with 80 catches. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (1,150 rushing yards, 4.8 YPA and seven TDs) has been outstanding but will sit out the game with a shoulder injury. Oakland's defense is allowing 27.6 PPG (28th) on the season, after allowing an average of 34 points during their four-game slide.

Sure, Rivers went over the 4,000-yard mark for the 11th time during last week's 39-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings (4,055 on the season) but he's thrown 11 INTs in LA's last five games (1-4 slide) and on the season, has almost as may INTs (18) as TD passes (21). RB Melvin Gordon ran for 885 yards on 5.1 YPA with 10 TDs last season, while adding 50 catches and another four TDs. However, he held out early in the season and enters this game having rushed for just 551 yards (4.0 YPA / 5 TDs) plus has a modest 30 catches. His backfield partner Ekeler has 500 yards (4.2 YPA / 3 TDs) and also 78 catches (2nd-best on the team) with a club-high 8 TDs. WR Keenan Allen (1,046 yards, five touchdowns) was selected to his third straight Pro Bowl with his third straight 90-catch season and is 13 away from surpassing the career-best 102 he caught in 2017. LA's defense has been solid, allowing 20.7 PPG (13th) on 307.6 YPG (5th).

The Los Angeles Chargers will bid farewell to their temporary home of three seasons on Sunday, playing their final game at Dignity Health Sports Park, before they move into SoFi Stadium for the 2020 season. The 27,000-seat facility used mainly for soccer hasn’t been much of a home-field advantage, as visiting team fans have drowned out local fans. Last week’s game against Minnesota was dominated by Vikings fans in the lower deck. The same is expected on Sunday with a large percentage of Raiders fans still in Los Angeles. This could be the final home game for Rivers and Gordon, with both being in the final year of their contracts. Both have also struggled in what has been a disappointing season. When the Chargers played in Oakland (Nov 7), the Raiders won 26-24 but Gordon rushed for a season-high 108 yards. Rivers did not fare well, passing for just 207 yards with two TDs and three INTs. However, I expect Rivers to exploit a decimated  Raiders secondary (remember: Oakland has allowed 34.0 PPG during its four-game slide) but I also expect the Raiders to stay close, as the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS when favored in 2019. That translates into an O-V-E-R, this meaningless contest.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on South Carolina/Virginia Over at 3:00 ET.

Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014). The now No. 9 ranked Cavs are off to a 9-1 start in defense of their title, with ethe team's lone loss coming at Purdue on Dec 4, 69-40 (Boilermakers got revenge for an Elite 8 loss last year to UVa). 7-4 South Carolina looks to knock off a second straight ACC opponent on the road when the Gamecocks face the Cavaliers on national television (ABC at 3:00 ET) in Charlottesville, Va. The Gamecocks made a Final 4 run of their own in 2017 but Martin's teams have won just 17 and 16 games the last two seasons.

South Carolina turned in a Cavalier-like defensive effort in last Sunday's 67-54 win at Clemson, holding the Tigers without a basket for the final 6 1/2 minutes of the game and to 28 percent shooting overall. The Gamecocks, who also forced in a season-high 21 turnovers against the Tigers, won their only other true road game on Dec 4 in an 84-80 victory at UMass. Sophomore A.J. Lawson (team-high 16.3 PPG) bounced back from a 10-point effort in a Dec 8 loss to Houston with 20 points on 8-of-15 shooting (4-of-7 beyond the arc), six rebounds and a season-high tying three steals. The only other South Carolina player in double digits on the season is the 6-11 Maik Kotsar (10.1 & 6.2) , who reached double figures for the SEVENTH time in his last eight outings with 11 points. With the recent return of guard Bryant from a knee injury (he's averaged 8.0 points in three games), the Gamecocks have five more players chipping in between 6.8 and 9.1 PPG.

Gone from last year's champs are are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). This season's team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (8.9 & 7.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.0-4.6-5.1). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.2 & 6.5) and the 7-1 Huff (9.5 & 6.8). The Cavaliers are scoring only 53.8 PPG (325th) on 39.5% shooting (329th), including 25.4% on threes (351st). However, the team's elite defense continues to make up for its lackluster offense. Uva is allowing a nation-low 44.2 PPG, while holding opponents to just 32.1% shooting (also ranks 1st).

South Carolina also plays excellent D, allowing 65.5 PPG (105th) on 37.9% shooting (21st). So why go over? The Gamecocks are averaging 70.6 PPG and while I don't expect them to match that average here, I don't expect a sub-55 point effort, either. Considering that Virginia has won 22 consecutive non-conference home games (dating back to Dec 3, 2016), I'm looking for a final in the mid-120s. I won my Dec Total of the Month on Va/Purdue Over back on Dec 4 and will  'go to the well' one more time by playing the Cavs over in this one (I won't do it often!).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Total of the Week is on Central Michigan/SD State Over at 2:00 ET.

9-3 San Diego State is going to its 10th straight bowl and 9th in a row under head coach Rocky Long. Aztecs are headed to Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque for the New Mexico Bowl. Long still has plenty of ties in New Mexico, as he was the Lobos' starting QB from 1969-1971 and then was the head coach at his alma for 11 years (1998-2008), leading New Mexico to five bowl appearances. San Diego State won six of its final eight games and waiting the Aztecs will be the 8-5 Central Michigan Chippewas, who lost 26-21 to Miami (Ohio) in the MAC championship game on Dec 7. However, Central Michigan made the biggest turnaround in the nation this season under Jim McElwain, who took over as head coach last December after John Bonamego was fired following a 1-11 season. McElwain was named MAC Coach of the Year after leading the Chippewas to an 8-5 record and their 10th bowl game in the last 14 years. 

The Chippewas rely on an offense that averages 31.9 PPG (44th) on 444.4 YPG (27th). Quinten Dormady took over after Central Michigan lost starting QB David Moore to an NCAA suspension after he tested positive for a banned substance. He's passed for 2,148 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs. He's got a solid trio of WRs led Pimpleton (All-MAC 1st team), who led the conference in both receptions (73) and receiving yards (771). RBs Ward (1,082 / 6.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and Lewis (977 yards / 5.5 YPA / 11 TDs) give Dormady excellent 'cover.' CMU's defense is average, allowing 26.8 PPG (62nd), although DE Sean Adesanya led the MAC with 14.5 tackles-for-loss and was second in sacks with seven. LB Troy Brown led the team in tackles (78) and interceptions (three) plus ranks second in the MAC with 14.0 tackles-for-loss.

It's 'being kind' by saying that the Aztecs feature an uninspiring offense, as SDSU comes in averaging 19.0 PPG (119th). Senior QB Ryan Agnew (11 TDs / 5 INTs) missed the Aztecs’ 13-3 win over BYU on Nov. 30 due to a left calf injury but is expected to return for the bowl game.The team's rushing game is virtually non-existent, averaging 135.3 YPG (99th) on 3.3 YPA. Washington is SDSU's leading rusher and he's gained only 500 yards (3.3 YPA). However, the Aztecs' D is allowing only 12.8 PPG (4th) on 288.7 YPG (5th). The team's rush D allows just 72.4 YPG (2nd) and ranks ninth with 15 INTs. LB Kyahva Tezino, CB Luq Barcoo plus DJ Myles Cheatum and Cameron Thomas were all Mountain West first team selections. Tezino leads the Aztecs in tackles (96) and QB hurries (22), while Barcoo is tied for the national lead in total interceptions (eight), pass breakups (16) and recorded 51 tackles.

SD St has had a roller-coaster of a season that included wins over UCLA, Fresno State and BYU but all featured losses to Utah State, Nevada and Hawaii. The Aztecs will need to get creative to keep pace with a Central Michigan offense that's averaged 37.6 PPG since Dormady took over as its starting QB. The Chippewas have a well-designed offense and the weather looks fine (sunny and in the 40s at kick-off is the forecast). It's true that there are times when one wonders if SDSU's offense will EVER score but the Aztecs did average 19.0 PPG. Remember, this over/under total is the LOWEST of all 41 bowl games and if the Aztecs can hit their season average, this game will 'fly' over. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Chi/GB at 1:00 ET.

The Bears and Packers will meet for the 200th time Sunday at legendary Lambeau Field. The forecast at kick-off as the team's renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry is 17 degrees with a wind chill factor of eight, according to the National Weather Service. The high is expected to be 19, nine degrees below average for Dec 15 in Green Bay. The Bears have won THREE straight and FOUR of five to remain in the mix for a wild card spot at 7-6, while the 10-3 Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot but have plenty of work left to lock down the NFC North and, perhaps, a first-round bye. These teams opened the 2019 season with the Packers winning 10-3 at Chicago back on Thursday, Sep .

The Packers were out-yarded by the Bears in that opening week win when Chicago QB when Trubisky was playing terrible. However, Chicago's turnaround can be tied directly to the improved play of Trubisky, who has completed 70 percent of his passes with seven passing touchdowns and two rushing scores during the three-game winning streak. "He has continued to gain confidence and trust with himself and then with his teammates," QB coach Dave Ragone told the Chicago Tribune. "Hopefully that continues the rest of the season. But you've seen the progress. Things have been clearer. Sharper." Veteran WR Allen Robinson (76 catches / 7 TDs on the season) has been the beneficiary of Trubisky's solid play, recording 19 catches for 265 yards and four TDs during the 3-0 run. Rookie RB David Montgomery (just 680 RY on 3.5 YPA) is also "coming around," with 161 rushing yards the last two games, while averaging 4.5 YPA.

Green Bay is averaging a pedestrian 18.8 points during its last five games, despite meeting the Redskins and Giants during this time frame. Those issues were clearly evident in a sluggish 20-15 home victory over a three-win Washington team that gave Green Bay all it could handle last Sunday. "I just know we're not where we need to be as a football team," head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters this week. "I still think ... I'm optimistic we can get there." Green Bay had 167 passing yards and 174 rushing yards in last week's win, after posting 243 and 79, respectively, in a victory at the New York Giants the previous Sunday. There is a sense that the offense needs to find its identity for the stretch run. Aaron Rodgers has a terrific 23-2 TD-to-INT ratio on the season but he's had a QB rating of over 100.0 in four different games this season, but also four with under 90.0. He has clearly become highly reliant on RB Aaron Jones (779 YR on 4.4 YPA with 12 TDs plus 45 catches with 3 TDs) in first-year coach Matt LaFleur's offense but Jones has four games with at least 150 yards from scrimmage and five with fewer than 50.

No doubt the Bears are playing better and Green Bay is not a "complete" team but Rodgers is 18-5 as the starter against the Bears and including the playoffs, the Packers have won 16 of the last 19 meetings with their bitter rivals. Yes, the Bears have won FOUR of five but the wins have come over the QB-less 3-9-1 Lions (twice), the 2-11 Giants (currently on a 9-game losing skid) and the 'imploding' Cowboys. It will be cold in Green Bay but sunny and we get to go "over" a very low number. I sure don't trust the Bears but on "current form," I am beginning to have some faith in Trubisky. That said, Rodgers is overdue for a "big game" and why not here against the team's most-hated rival and one that Green Bay has dominated the last decade (see above). This one is Goin' Over (no 10 FGs in this one, like last week's 'nightmare' with the Dolphins/Jets)!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins opened 0-7 but in Week 9, broke through for their first win, 26-18 at home over the NY Jets. The Dolphins upset the Colts the following week (Brissett was out for Indy) but then lost convincingly to the Bills and Browns. However, Miami played its best game of the year last week in beating the Eagles 37-31 as a 10-point home underdog. The Dolphins  now get a rematch with the Jets at MetLife Field in the Meadowlands. The Jets know all about bad starts, as they opened 0-4 and 1-7. The Jets looked great in winning three straight from Week 10 through 12 but threw in a major 'clunker' in Week 13 (naturally!). After scoring 34 points in each contest during their three-game winning streak, the Jets lost 22-6 at then-winless Cincinnati (0-11). New York totaled just 271 yards with two FGs, reminding all that they are the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets!

Miami,erupted for season-high totals in points and yards (408) in its 37-31 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a season-high 365 yards and three TDs. Former first-round WR DeVante Parker continued his hot stretch with seven catches for career-high totals in yards (159) and TDs (two) against the Eagles. He has 20 catches the last three games and a team-high 53 on the season. Fitzgerald is pretty much counted on to produce the points for Miami, as the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in averaging 62.8 YPG on 3.1 YPA (the team's leading rusher has all of 201 yards!). Defense is a problem as well, as Miami is allowing 31.4 PPG, ranking dead-last in that category, as well.

Sam Darnold can 'feel Fitzgerald's pain,' as the Jets are one notch above the Dolphins, as their running game ranks 31st with 72.6 YPG (3.3 YPA). Good thing New York signed Le'Veon Bell, huh? Sam Darnold, who overcame a bout of mononucleosis earlier in the season, turned a season-high 48 passes against the Bengals into just a 58 percent completion rate and 71.4 passer rating -- totals that were his second-lowest of 2019 (239 yards without a TD or INT). However, let's NOT ignore that he entered last week's game having averaged 279.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and just ONE INT in leading the Jets to 34 points in each outing (all wins). By the way, Darnold's working with a pretty mediocre cast of receivers, and I'm being kind.

Here's the 'dope.' Both QBs are on "do it alone missions" but the good news is that they face VERY vulnerable opposing pass Ds. The Dolphins have allowed 29 TD passes, while intercepting just EIGHT passes in 395 attempts. Then there is Miami's non-existent pass rush, which has a league-low 16 sacks. Want a comparison? No other team has fewer than 20, with Carolina leading the league with 46!. The Jets pass D is not quite as bad, allowing a more modest 19 TD passes but the Jets only have seven INTs in 447 pass attempts against.

The weather will not be quite as nice as it was in Miami when the teams met back on Nov 3rd but no rain or snow in the forecast (zero percent chance of precipitation) with kickoff temperatures around 40 degrees (good football weather). As noted above, Fitzpatrick has no running attack so the game plan is "just air it out!" Throw early and often, as the Miami defense can't stop anyone (see above for a reminder). Darnold has to be 'licking his chops' looking at Miami's defense on film and he's got some "making up to do" off last week's 'ugly' effort at Cincy and that Week 9 loss at Miami. In that one, Darnold threw a TD pass about five minutes into the contest and then Miami's dreadful D held the Jets out of the end zone the rest of the game. The Jets will score on the Dolphins, who will surely keep up enough for this game to 'fly' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.

The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. Oladipo has yet to return but Indiana is 14-8 and visits MSG tonight, having won SEVEN of its last nine games. The New York Knicks fired head coach David Fizdale and hope the change will create some momentum heading into Saturday's game against the visiting Pacers. New York has lost EIGHT straight games and is an NBA-worst 4-18 this season, as "the Fizdale era" ends with a 21-83 (.202) record (is Phil willing to come back??).

Center Myles Turner (11.6 & 5.6) and SG Jeremy Lamb (16.2 & 5.5) are both back on the court after dealing with ankle sprains and that's great news. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has become the team-leader this season, averaging 19.0-4.9-7.70 but also be aware that the 6-11 Sabonis is quietly becoming a star. He had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season. The Gonzaga product is averaging 18.4 & 13.0 on the season. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.4 PPG.

Lead assistant coach Keith Smart was also dismissed and assistant Mike Miller, a former college and G League coach, was tabbed to take over the team on an interim basis. New York's front office has been viewed as dysfunctional and the squad put together by team president Steve Mills and general manager Scott Perry has lost seven games by 20 or more points already this season. The last two games of the Fizdale Era were particularly ugly, as the Knicks lost by 44 to the Milwaukee Bucks on Monday and by 37 to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday. Forwards Morris (18.3 & 6.0) and Randle (16.8-8.5-3.5) are the team's top-two producers, followed by first-round draft choice RJ Barrett (14.4-5.1-3.3). As for the rest of the team.......

The Knicks are winless since a 123-105 victory over Cleveland back on Nov 18 and I won't predict a "W" here but I do expect "an effort." That said, the Pacers have to expect that too and with home games up next against the Clippers and Celtics, Indiana surely won't want to lose to this sad-sack outfit. The Pacers won all FOUR meetings with the  Knicks last season, averaging 110.3 PPG. Can the Knicks win one for Mike Miller, who surely won't be the team's new head coach? Again, I expect "an effort" and I believe  that translates into an "Over!"

Good luck...Larry

The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008 and the Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 11-1 Mountaineers enter this year's SBC championship game (played at Boone, NC in the Mountaineers' own Kidd Brewer Stadium) ranked 20th in the AP poll and 21st in the CFP rankings. Their opponent will the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, just like last year in the SBC's inaugural title game. ULL is 10-2 on the season and will be trying avenge not only last years 30-19 title-game loss but a 17-7 loss at home to Appalachian St back on Oct 9 of this year. That said, the "revenge angle" hasn't worked well for ULL, which has lost all SEVEN meetings with App St since 2014.

ULL features three RBs with 750 or more rushing yards. Elijah Mitchell (1,007 yards / 6.0 YPA /  14 TDs) leads the pack, followed by Raymond Calais (833 yards / 7.9 YPA / 6 TDs) and Trey Ragas (762 yards / 7.5 YPA / 11 TDs). The trio combines for the nation's 6th-best rushing game (274.2 YPG). Junior QB Levi Lewis has thrown for 2,450 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. ULL enters averaging 38.8 PPG (12th) plus owns a defense allowing just 17.8 PPG (11th) 

Appalachian State averages 38.9 PPG (11th) led by QB Zac Thomas, who has thrown for 2,427 yards with 24 TD passes and just six INTs this season (he is 21-3 as a starter). The Mountaineers don't run quite as well as ULL but RB Darrynton Evans has rushed for 1,250 yards and 16 TDs this season, adding three more scores as a receiver plus returning a KO for a TD. Like ULL, App St's defense has held opponents in check, allowing 18.8 PPG (18th) on 321.2 YPG (19th).

First-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz had big shoes to fill with the departure of predecessor Scott Satterfield to Louisville but he's delivered "big time," as Appalachian State's 11-1 record is the best 12-game mark in Sun Belt Conference history.  What's more, the team is coming off arguably its most complete effort of the year in a dominating 48-13 beatdown of Troy. QB Thomas has 45 TDPs and only 10 INTs the last two-plus years and his backfield mate, RB Evans, has compiled 2,437 rushing yards and 23 TD over last two campaigns (note: Evans recorded 218 all-purpose yards, including 111 rushing and a 97-yard kickoff return in the 2018 Sun Belt title game). As good as App St has been against conference opponents (42-7 in Sun Belt games), I won't discount ULL in this one. The Ragin’ Cajuns haven't lost since that 17-7 Appalachian State win back on Oct 9. It's been SIX straight wins since, averaging 39.5 PPG. Then again, the Mountaineers have won all seven matchups since 2014 (when they joined the SBC) by an average of  20.5 points and 22.8 at home. I'm staying away from an ATS pick but will be "all over' the total in this one. NO WAY we will see another 17-7 game, like back on Oct 9. Both teams have excellent defense but their respective offenses will be the dominant units in this game. App St is averaging 43.7 PPG at home this season and for ULL to 'hang,' the Ragin’ Cajuns will have to score. This one is Goin' Over! 

Good luck...Larry

My CBB 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Virginia/Purdue Over at 7:15 ET.

Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. (note: it marked the lowest preseason ranking for a defending champion since UConn opened 17th at the start of the 2014-15 season, after winning the title in April 2014).Purdue is coming off a 26-win season, after reaching the Elite 8. Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from last year's team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0), but he Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll. However, Purdue welcomes 7-0 Virginia (current No. 5 in the latest AP poll) to Mackey Arena with just a 4-3 record.

The Cavaliers have held seven straight opponents to 55 points or less, including a defensive masterpiece against Maine (46-26), which matched a program record for the fewest amount of points allowed. Virginia ranks first in both points allowed (40.3) and defensive FG percentage (28.8). Gone from last year's champs are are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.50, Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). This season' team features an unique guard duo, the 6-8 Key (10.3 & 8.3) and 5-9 PG Clark (9.6-4.7-5.0). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.9 & 7.3) and the 7-1 Huff (10.3 & 7.4).

Purdue clearly misses Edwards, although Proctor (14.6) and Hunter (10.3) make a pair of quality guards. The 7-3 Haarms (11.7 & 6.4) and the 6-9 Wheeler (6.4 & 7.1) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all seven opponents to 70 points or less to start the season (58.4 PPG on the season to ranks 18th nationally). Haarms went 6-of-6 from the floor en route to a team-high 16 points to go along with eight rebounds against Florida State, but it wasn't enough as the Boilermakers were doomed by a 33.9 percent shooting performance from the floor in the 63-60 OT loss. Aaron Wheeler and Evan Boudreaux (4.4 & 3.3) combined for six points on 2-of-18 shooting, including 0-for-8 from three-point range, as Purdue missed seven of its eight attempts from the floor and had five turnovers in overtime.

Virginia looks to extend its winning streak against Big Ten foes to 13 games and note that win No. 12 in that streak came against Purdue in last year's South Region Final, when the Cavs beat the Boilermakers 80-75 in OT. Purdue is playing with revenge plus since the school's last losing season (15-17 back in 2013-14), the Boilermakers have an impressive 80-9 record at Mackey Arena. Purdue will not have to deal with Virginia's multi-talented 6-8 Key, who underwent wrist surgery after suffering the injury in the championship game of the Air Force Reserve Tip-Off against Arizona State on Nov. 24.  On a positive note for Virginia, the Cavs hope that sophomore swingman Kody Stattmann (5.3 PPG) can return after missing four games with an illness. Bottom line for me is that I can't resist Goin' Over this LOW over/under total, despite the defensive credentials of BOTH teams. Remember, last year's Elite 8 meeting was tied at 70-all heading into OT, which is almost six 'TDs' higher than the opening over/under number on tonight's contest (opened 101).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Ten/Ind Over at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season. What could be different here? The Titans have produced 842 total yards over the past two games and are averaging 29.4 PPG over the last five, third in the NFL during that span behind only Baltimore (39.3) and San Francisco (30.8). Tannehill is also tied for third in the NFL with Lamar Jackson in passer rating (111.4), behind only Minnesota's Kirk Cousins (114.8) and Seattle's Russell Wilson (112.1). I won't buck Indy and the team's domination of the Titans in this venue, nor will I 'step in front of' Indy's ATS record its last 10 against a wining team. However, for the Colts to keep those streaks 'alive,' they will have to outscore the Tannehill and Henry-led Tennessee offense, playing with supreme confidence. My play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Year is on Jax/Ten Over at 4:05 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. The Titans welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to Nashville on Sunday, looking for a FOURTH win in five games (details to come). The Jags opened the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but then would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles and played reasonably well (61.2% for 2,285 yards with 13 Tds and four INTs) but Foles returned to field last Sunday. The Jags were routed 33-13 by the Colts, although Foles completed 33 of 47 for 296 yards with two TDs and one INT.

The 4-6 Jags defeated the Titans 20-7 at home back in Week 3. Minshew played well with two TDs and zero INTs (a modest 204 passing yards) but it was Jacksonville's defense which played the starring role, sacking Mariota NINE times. Foles is back but the Jags can't ignore their running game like vs the Colts (29 yards on nine carries!), as when used, Fournette is a quality multi-purpose player. He's rushed for 854 yards (4.7 YPA) and has 47 catches! WR Chark is having an excellent season with 51 receptions, averaging 15.6 YPC plus hauling in eight TDs. The once-proud Jacksonville defense has allowed 59 points in back-to-back losses to Houston and Indy, allowing 216 yards rushing in a 26-3 loss to the Texans and 264 in last week's 33-13 loss to the Colts.

The Titans have an excellent RB in Henry and unlike Fournette (who has just one TD!), Henry has EIGHT rushing TDs (832 yards on 4.4 YPA) plus two TD receptions, despite just 13 catches. Henry is a major contributor (more in a bit) but the insertion of Tannehill at QB is what has sparked the Titans' turnaround. Tannehill was named the starting QB for Week 7.Four games later (Tennessee is 3-1 and averaging 26.3 PPG), Tannehill has led the Titans to the top spot in the league in red zone offense, scoring TDs on all 10 red zone trips. For the season, the Titans have scored TDs on 72% of their red zone trips.In the first six weeks, the offense was settling for FGs when it reached the red zone. In Marcus Mariota's six starts, when Tennessee averaged just 16.3 PPG, the Titans averaged 1.3 TDs in 2.5 red zone visits per game. Mariota's red zone QBR was 17.0, according to ESPN Stats & Information. However, in the past four games under Tannehill, Tennessee has averaged 1.8 TDs in the same amount of visits. Tannehill's red zone QBR is 97.1. Additionally, Tannehill's completion percentage in the red zone is 70.6%, compared to Mariota's 46.2%.

All these above stats have me 'all over' the OVER is this game.I love what Tannehill's been able to do plus getting back to Henry, he ran for a season-best 188 yards in a 35-32 victory over Kansas City on Nov 10, before the Titans had a bye. The team returns to the field refreshed and let me remind all that Henry ran for a career-best 238-yards with four TDs against the Jaguars last December, including a memorable 99-yard TD. Throw in the fact that Foles has a full week of practice behind (expect a good game from him) and this posted total WAAAAY to low!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on UC Riverside/Pacific Over at 6:00 ET.

My 10* Total of the Week is on Arz/SF Over at 4:05 ET.

San Francisco entered last Monday night's game as the NFL's lone unbeaten but fell 27-24 (OT) in one of 2019's most exciting games. The 49ers look to rebound from that loss when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The two NFC West rivals will be meeting for teh second time in three weeks, as the 49ers won 28-25 at Phoenix in a Week 9 Thursday game on Halloween. It may come as a surprise to many that Arizona had beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times,prior to taht contest.

Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ saw his team open 0-3-1 in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7. However, to be fair, those three wins came over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 4-24). The Cards have followed their three-game winning streak by losing 31-9 at New Orleans, 28-25 at home to San Francisco and 30-27 at New Orleans. Kyler Murray (last year's No. 1 pick) has lived up to expectations, completing 63.9% for an average of 290.4 YPG through the air. He has 12 TD passes and just five INTs in 360 attempts (great stat for a rookie!). He also leads the team in rushing, gaining 351 yards on 5.9 YPA. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald leads the team with 50 receptions for 556 yards despite slowing down, while second-year WR Christian Kirk is on the rise, after catching six passes for career-highs of 138 yards and three TDs in last week's loss to Tampa Bay (he's missed three games but has 40 catches and counting). On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona has struggled most of the season, allowing 28.1 PPG (27th) on 412.5 YPG (31st).

The 49ers were overdue to lose but now the test is to bounce back. Jimmy Garoppolo's stats do NOT match Murray's as he's averaging 231.9 YPG passing (Murray averages 60 more YPG) and his ratio of 14-8 is surely no better than Murray's 12-5. Let's not even mention that Garoppolo has 33 rushing yards to Murray's 351 (OK, I did!). Of course, Garoppolo 'hangs his hat' on his 14-3 record as a starting QB (as well he should). A cause for concern is TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) could miss his second straight game with knee and ankle injuries, while WR Emmanuel Sanders (13 for 161, two TDs in three games with the team) will be a game-time decision after suffering a rib injury during Monday's loss. The 49ers are averaging 161.8 YPG on the ground (2nd) but were held to just 87 yards by Seattle (3.2 YPC). However, it's hard to imagine San Francisco NOT running the ball well against the Cards. Despite Monday's loss, the 49ers still come in allowing just 14.6 PPG on 251.6 YPG, ranking second in the league in both categories.

What to expect? The San Francisco D is terrific but as I noted in taking Seattle Nov Game of the Month) last Monday, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense (note: San Francisco has allowed 52 points its last two games). I noted above that Garoppolo stats don't quite measure up to his gaudy W/L record as a starter but I won't ignore that he had no problem against this Arizona defense just 18 days ago, ripping them for 317 yards and four TD passes (all by the end of the start of the 4Q). I noted Arizona's sad-sack defense numbers already but will add that in losing THREE in a row, the Cards have allowed 31, 28 and 30 points. I see little reason why the 49ers won;t score easily on Arizona here (30-plus points) but will add that the Cards never gave up in that Week 9 loss to San Francisco, scoring 11 points in the 4th quarter to earn the 'back door' cover. I will not be taking the points in this one but I will go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on SA/Orl Over at 7:05 ET.

The San Antonio Spurs opened the season 4-1 but a warning sign was their 1-4 ATS mark. It was more than telling, as the Spurs 'limp' into Orlando having lost FIVE of six since that 4-1 start, while the team's ATS woes have continued. The Spurs are 1-5 ATS during the 1-5 SU stretch, giving them a 2-9 ATS mark in the team's 5-6 start. The Spurs will look to salvage the finale of a two-game trip Friday in Orlando, coming off 129-114 loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, Wednesday's impressive 112-97 victory against visiting Philadelphia, improved the Magic to 2-1 on their current five-game homestand.

San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.1-4.9-54.8) and PF Aldridge (17.9 & 5.9) give the team a solid "Big 2." That said, Aldridge has been an enigma, averaging 25 points on 58.6 percent from the floor in his team's five wins but just 12 points on 43.9 percent in its six losses. PG Dejounte Murray (10.9-7.3-4.7) looks fully recovered from his knee injury and is off his minutes restrictions. He joins FOUR other Spurs (no counting DeRozan and Aldridge), scoring in double digits. The group includes guards Forbes (14.3), Mills (12.0) and White (11.3), plus SF Green (10.7 & 7.1). Tre Lyles starts at center and while he's not much of a scoring threat (4.6), he's averaging 8.0 RPG in only about 20 minutes.

Orlando ranks first in the NBA in holding opponents to 99.1 PPG but is last in scoring offense (99.4 PPG) on 42.1% shooting (29th). However, after being held to 99 points or fewer in each of their first SEVEN games, the Magic have scored at least 102 in FOUR straight contests. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.8 & 11.5) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.2) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one plus Fournier (15.3) is a scorer on the perimeter. Those four have started all 11 games, while guards Augustin (9.5 & 4.5 APG) and Fultz (9.5) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting six and Augustin, five.

Here's where I'm going with this. "Once Upon a Time," the Pop-coached Spurs were among the NBA's best defensive teams but San Antonio ranks 23rd in points allowed (114.2) and 26trh in defensive FG percentage (47.5). In the team's current three-game skid, the Spurs are allowing 125.7 points and saw the Timberwolves scored 40 points in TWO different quarters on Wednesday. Getting back to Orlando, I noted the team's dramatic offensive improvement lately and putting a 'number' to that improvement shows the Magic averaging 109.5 PPG over its last four contests. This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Orl Over at 6:05 ET.

The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but will visit Orlando on Sunday, winners of FIVE of its last six. The Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but Friday's 118-86 win over Memphis gives them just a 3-6 start to the current season.

The Pacers come to Orlando with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) are both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Indiana placed SEVEN players in double figures in Friday's 112-106 win over Detroit. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has carried the load through the ups and downs of the current season, averaging 21.0-5.1-9.0. The 6-11 Sabonis had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season, averaging 19.9 & 12.6. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 17.9 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, with McDermott scoring 33 and Sampson 24, the last two games.

Orlando ranks 2nd in the NBA in holding opponents to 98.2 PPG but is last in scoring offense (97.7 PPG). However, the Magic finally showed what the team can be when the shots fall on Friday. Orlando routed Memphis 118-86, holding the Grizzlies to 37.2 percent from the floor, in line with the team's excellent defensive play all season but Orlando also had a breakout offensive effort, The starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic plus forwards Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac combined to go 25-of-38 from the floor (65.8%) while scoring 62 points. We've got really good defensive players on this team and the one thing we can hang our hats on is knowing that we can defend," Gordon told reporters. "That (defensive) side of the floor, we know that we can handle pretty much anybody. But it's nice to see our offense get going as well."

"Turned the corner? I don't know, but we did play better," Magic shooting guard Evan Fournier (14.8) told reporters. "We had more easy baskets and that's why we scored. We've been saying that the offense hasn't been good, but it's been because we don't get enough good shots. Tonight, we were able to create a lot of good shots and that was the key." Orlando has been a dead “under” team this season with a great defense coupled with an offense which has been awful. However, there is little reason to think the team's "O" will continue to struggle. Repeating from above, the Magic were a playoff team last year and returned the core of that team intact and healthy. Orlando has gone 'under" in SEVEN of nine games this season (one over and one push) but the Magic scored 106 points in a Wednesday loss at Dallas (team's lone over of the season) and then 118 points Friday (that game stayed under only because Memphis scored 86 points, three 'TDs' lower than the team's scoring average of 108.7 PPG on the season). As for Indiana, the Pacers come into this contest averaging 113.5 PPG in winning FIVE of their last six. It's rare these days to see a NBA over/under number 'hugging' around 200 but that's the case here. My bet says this number is WAAAY too low, based on current form. Go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Buf/Cle Over at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home.

OK, I am NOT about to take the Browns but don't they have to be 'juiced' playing just their second game in Cleveland since Week 3. Buffalo does not have a prolific offense but scoring against the Browns has come fairly easy for most opponents. Yes, Buffalo has a terrific D but the Browns have to believe that if they are to have a chance to win, they will HAVE to find a way into the end zone. The low Over/Under number makes this a game that's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Nevada/SD State Over at 10:30 ET.

Rocky Long played QB for New Mexico and returned to his alma mater as its head coach in 1998. He led the Lobos to just the school's second bowl appearance since 1961 in 2002, the first of FIVE bowls bids in seven years. He quit as head coach after the 2008 season but resurfaced at SD St in 2011 and has led the Aztecs to EIGHT consecutive bowls. At 7-1 (4-1 in the MWC's West Division), the 24th-ranked Aztecs will be 'bowling' for the NINTH straight season. Nevada's Mike Norvell is in just his third season with Nevada but after a 3-9 first year in 2017, led the Wolf Pack to an 8-5 record last season, including an Arizona Bowl win. Nevada checks in at 5-4 in 2019 with three games remaining, needing ONE win to be bowl-eligible once again.

The Wolf Pack snapped a two-game slide with a 21-10 victory over New Mexico last week behind freshman QB Carson Strong's solid effort. Strong won the starting QB job and played well as Nevada won two of its first three (had 295 and 299 yards passing in the two wins). However, he lost playing time over the next four games to Solano and Henry. However, Strong was back at QB in a 31-3 loss at Wyoming on Oct 26, but threw for 247 yards. He then was very good in Nevada's 21-10 win over New Mexico last Saturday, passing for a season-high 305 yards with two TDs. His return is GOOD NEWS! Still, Nevada's defense is a big concern, allowing 34.6 PPG (116th), including 41.2 PPG on the road.

San Diego State joined the AP top-25 on Sunday. The No. 24 Aztecs have a commanding lead in the MWC West Division (no other team is better than .500) and while the MWC title is the team's main focus, finishing as the top-ranked Group of Five conference team (which would earn a New Year's Six bowl game), wouldn't be 'chopped liver.' Senior QB Ryan Agnew has modest numbers (63.9% for 1,427 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs) but he's 13-2 as a starter. It sure helps that SDSU's defense is one of the nation's best, allowing only 14.1 PPG (8th) on 283.6 YPG (12th).

At first blush one could say 'Under' but be careful. SDSU's offense is averaging only 21.8 PPG but there is little reason to think that the Aztecs WON'T be able to move the ball and score against Nevada's porous defense. The Wolf Pack surely know that their D cannot be expected to do so, meaning Strong and the offense have to realize that any chance of winning 'hangs' on its ability to score. I 'LOVE' going under these sub-40 over/under numbers in CFB and note that the finals scores between these two schools the last three seasons have averaged 59.7 points, about three TDs HIGHER than the over/under number in this contest. Look out below, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Cle/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, as they were expecting to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season enters its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-5, after losing their THIRD consecutive game 27-13 at New England last Sunday. The Browns visit Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos. Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos D is allowing 18.9 PPG (4th) on 304.5 YPG (4th) but the team's offense (15.6 PPG, ranking 28th) has kept them from doing any better than 2-6.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 57.6 percent with 6 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 67.8. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (738 yards on 5.5 YPC with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry, who have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play. The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (22nd).

Denver QB Joe Flacco was diagnosed with a herniated disk in his neck after last Sunday's 15-13 to the Colts, a contest in which he complained about the team's conservative play-calling. Whether or not Flacco was right, we know that he has failed to eclipse more than 213 yards passing in each of his last four games and has thrown just six TDs (five INTs) on the season. Denver's running game is averaging only 110.0 YPG (16th) but the Broncos do own a pair of quality RBs in Lindsay (492 yards / 4.5 YPC) and Freeman (359 yards / 4.1 YPC). Flacco's herniated disk will sideline him six weeks at a minimum, so the Broncos will turn to Brandon Allen, a fourth-year pro from Arkansas who will make his first start since Jan 2, 2016, against Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.

Allen becomes the SIXTH different starting QB for the Broncos since the start of the 2016 season (Elway sure KNOWS a QB when he sees one!). "First of all, Brandon is a very intelligent dude,” RB Phillip Lindsay said. “I’m excited to see what he has to offer. I think he’s going to move around a lot, and I think he’s going to take shots and stuff.” Speaking of Lindsay, he joins Freeman as a solid 1-2 RB Denver combo that will face a Cleveland rush D allowing 143.3 YPG on the ground (29th). I expect Denver to be successful against Cleveland's sad-sack defense but I also see a good (possibly excellent) performance from Mayfield, now that Browns realize 2019 we be another in a long line of disappointments. This VERY low Over/Under number gives us a strong play on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Cincy/East Carolina Over at 7:00 ET.

No. 17 Cincinnati (6-1 / 3-0 AAC) is riding a five-game winning streak and coming off a bye week as the Bearcats travel to Greenville, NC to taken on the East Carolina Pirates (3-5 / 0-3 AAC). Cincy is 3-0 and owns a win over 3-1 UCF, which puts the Bearcats in position as "the favorite" in the East Division of the AAC, as well as in the hunt for a “New Year’s Six” bowl. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and comes into this contest on a three-game slide,

Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. QB Desmond Ridder is hardly special but he has thrown a TD pass in all but one game on the season and has 14 TD passes against a modest five INTs. The running is slightly above average (173.4 YPG ranks 57th) and Cincy is averaging 28.6 PPG, despite being shut out 42-0 at Ohio St. Cincy's defense is allowing 20.4 PPG (24) and that average dips to 16.8 PPG, without the Ohio St debacle. The Bearcats' success on D has come with using, on average, 20 players per game. Cincinnati ranks second in the nation in turnovers gained and has recorded FIVE in each of its last two games

ECU's three wins have come over Gardner-Webb, William & Mary and Old Dominion. QB Holton Ahlers struggled once again in the team's 45-20 loss to 4USF, failing to throw a TD and being replaced late in the fourth quarter. He's completing just 55.6% for 1,672 yards with 7 TDs and 7 INTs. He gets little help fom his running game (155.6 YPG ranks 80th) and ECU's defense is giving up 28.2 PPG (72nd) but that number is deceiving. The Pirates have allowed just 37 points in its three wins (see above for the quality, or lack threreof, of those 'victims'), while allowing an average of 37.8 PPG in the team's five losses.

ECU is coming off back-to-back games in which its defense has allowed 41 points on 611 yards and 45 points on 525 yards, which sets up nicely for my 'over' play. Throw out the 42-0 loss at Ohio St and Cincy has averaged just over 33 PPG and there is no reason (coming off a bye), that the Bearcats will have ANY trouble scoring against the ECU defense. The Bearcats will surely remember losing the last time here (2017), when they fell 48-20 to an ECU team which would finish 3-9. Cincy took ECU 'to the woodshed' last year at home, winning 56-6 (note: Ridder threw for 335 yards and 4 TDPs in that one!). East Carolina is still looking for its first AAC win and it won't come here. I expect Cincy to roll, after the Bearcats looked listless in winning just 24-13 at home vs Tulsa (gained only 317 yards), two Saturday's ago. Cincy has scored more than 40 points just once in 2019 (52-14 at Marshall) but I see them topping that total here, meaning this game flies over!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Total of the Month is on NYJ/Jax Over at 1:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were in Cincinnati last Sunday to take on the winless Bengals. The Jags had forced just ONE turnover in their first six games but got the Bengals to cough up the ball FOUR times, as they snapped a two-game slide with a 27-17 win. The 3-4 Jags return home this Sunday to face the 1-5 Jets, who are coming off an embarrassing 33-0 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday, a contest in which they turned the ball over SIX times. Seems like the perfect set-up for the Jags to even their record at 4-4.

Sam Darnold made a "triumphant return" for the Jets against Dallas in Week 6, as he led New York to its first win of the season, 24-22. The second-year pro from USC completed 23 of 32 for 338 yards with two TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 113.8. However, his "15 minutes of fame" lasted all of one week, as he completed 11 of 32 for 86 yards with four INTs against the Pats, 'earning' him a QB rating of 3.6. He also lost a fumble plus failed to control a high snap that wound up as a safety for the Pats. To add insult to injury, sideline microphones caught him saying he was "seeing ghosts" after his third INT.. "I just gotta see the field a lot better," Darnold told reporters. "That's kinda what that means. It was a rough day out there, rough night out there, and obviously I gotta be better and learn from the mistakes. But we will get better." Can the Jets get any worse? One positive in the Jets' loss to the Patriots was RB Le'Veon Bell's season-high 70 yards on 15 carries, against a New England defense that ranks 1st in points allowed (6.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (223.1 YPG).

"It's what Jaguar defense is all about," linebacker Myles Jack told reporters after the win at Cincy. "We create turnovers. We play physical. We've been playing good defense. We just haven't been able to get those turnovers that we needed. So, once we're able to create that, I feel like it puts our offense in easier situations, do their thing, and allow them to get into a rhythm. It's a great feeling, man. It's a great feeling to see that ball going the other way." Nick Foles, who suffered a broken clavicle in the first game of the season, finally returned to practice on a limited basis this week but he is not eligible to come off injured reserve until Week 9. That means the QB duties will remain with rookie Gardner Minshew, who has 10 TD passes and just TWO interceptions in six starts. He is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,697 yards. He's ably complemented by a rushing attack averaging 140.1YPG (5th) on 5.1 YPC. The ground game is led by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette, who has 715 yards on 5.0 YPC.

I do NOT see the New York defense, which allows 26.0 PPG (23rd), reigning in Minshew and Fournette. However, I HAVE to believe Darnold is capable of a bounce-back. This over/under is tantalizingly low and just like my Sep Total of the Month (Jax/Den Over 37.5, which ended 26-24), I'm Goin' Over with the Jags in this one against the Jets.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Cal/Utah Over at 10:00 ET.

The Cal Golden Bears opened 4-0 and were ranked 15th in the AP poll when they hosted ASU for a Friday night game on Sep 27. The Bears lost that one 24-17, as starting QB Chase Garbers suffered a shoulder injury. Devon Modster has started the team's last two games, a 17-7 loss at Oregon and 21-7 loss at home to Oregon St, in which Modster was forced to leave in the fourth quarter with an apparent lower-body injury. Utah has opened 7-0 (3-1 in Pac-12 play) with QB Tyler Huntley starting each one. However, he has been unable to finish several contests, including his departure in the third quarter last Saturday with an apparent leg injury. The Bears and Utes meet Saturday night in Sal Lake City with the Bears hoping to avoid a 1-4 start in league play, while the 12th-ranked Utes are battling USC in the Pac-12 South (both are 3-1). There have been no early-week updates on Modster and if can’t play, true freshman Spencer Brasch will make his first start after completing 2-of-6 passes for 24 yards and an interception in the loss to the Beavers. Cal's offense ranks 1116th in both scoring (19.9 PPG) and total yards (324.0 YPG), so I'm not sure the QB situation is all that important. Cal's D is strong, allowing 18.7 PPG (20th) on 359.6 YPG (48th). Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has stuck to the program policy of refusing to comment on player injuries, during his weekly news conference. However, Huntley told the Salt Lake Tribune “I’m playing” following a team weightlifting session Monday. If not, either Drew Lisk or Jason Shelley will get teh nod. I sure want Huntley to play, as he's Pac-12’s top dual-threats. He's leads all Pac-12 QBs with 229 yards rushing (4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and has thrown for 1,564 yards, nine TDs and only one INT. Running back Zack Moss (613 YR / 6.6 YPC / 8 TDs) has been in and out of the lineup all season with assorted injury issues, but the Pac-12’s leading rusher (102.2 yards per game) came back from a brief departure during the contest last Saturday to rush for 99 yards and a pair of TDs. Utah's offense is overlooked because of it's outstanding defense but the Utes are averaging 32.9 PPG (42nd) on 449.4 YPG (32nd). That defense is holding opponents to only 11.7 PPG (6th) on 252.1 YPG (4th). I read a preview of this contest the other day and it began, "Points could be in short supply when No. 12 Utah hosts California in Salt Lake City on Saturday. Both teams have built their identities this season around rugged defenses." The statement is true and while I don't expect an onslaught of points, this over/under number is among the VERY-lowest posted all season in NCAAF 2019. Utah is 4-0 at home this season (averaging 31.2 PPG) and has won EIGHT in a row at Rice-Eccles Stadium, averaging 39.5 PPG in those eight wins. Cal's D is strong but Utah has proven it can consistently put up points at home. Let me add that Cal is on an 8-0 ATS run as a visiting underdog and to cover here, will likely need to score MORE than its seasonal average to keep that ATS run alive. No trading points back and forth here, but since Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, these schools have met FOUR times. The average final has totaled 56.3 PPG. Even two TDs less than that would allow us to ca$h here! Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Cin Over at 1:00 ET.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked very ordinary during the Jaguars' 13-6 loss to New Orleans last Sunday, as Jacksonville was held to a season-low 226 yards and just a pair of FGs. Minshew entered last Sunday's contest completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 255.8 YPG with nine TDs and just one INT. However, he went just 14 of 29 for only 163 yards without a TD pass and had one interception. The good news for Minshew is, the last three QBs who faced the Bengals had career days (see below). RB Leonard Fournette is healthy in 2019 (584 YR / 5.1 YPC and 26 catches for 189 yards) and he registered 118 yards from scrimmage last week to join Cleveland's Nick Chubb as the only players in the NFL with at least 85 in each of their first six games this season. Jacksonville's defense is allowing 21.8 PPG (13th) on 372.7 YPG (23rd).

Brandon Wilson got the Bengals off to a good start last Sunday, returning the opening kickoff 92 yards for a TD, but the team was unable to find the end zone again until late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of each of their last three games. QB Andy Dalton is completing 61.7% for 1,647 yards with seven TDs and five INTs plus gets NO help from a running game averaging an NFL-low 56.5 YPG. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 286.5 PPG (26th) on 426.0 YPG (31st).

The Bengals won't go 0-16, right? However, I'm not sure this is a the game they'll get a "W." Expect a bounce-back game from Minshew, against a very porous Cincy defense. After all, Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards (236) and rush for 150 (152) in a single game last week against the Bengals. The prior week, Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards without an interception and in Cincy's Week 4 MNF game against the Steelers, Mason Rudolph threw for a career high 229 yards with two TDs. Also, RB Fournette gets to run against a Cincy rush D that ranks 32nd by allowing 184.5 YPG on 5.3 YPC (also ranks last in the NFL). The Jags will score against this D and look for Cincy's Dalton to "air it out." He has a non-existent running game, so what's Plan B? This game goes OVER this modest number easily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Kentucky /Georgia Over at 6:00 ET.

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Dal/NJY Over at 4:25 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week."

QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.”

The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th).

However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The Dallas D has been good this season but I'm expecting the Jets to be able to move the ball and score. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I do believe this is a GREAT spot to play this contest OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Total of the Week is on Navy/Tulsa Over at 7:30 ET.

My 10* NFL Total of the Week (5) is on Chi/Oak Over at 1:00 ET.

Khalil Mack will have a few incentives when he takes the field for The Chicago Bears hosted their bitter rival (the Green Bay Packers) to open NFL 2019 on a Thursday night (Sep 5) and lost 10-3. Chicago then won its Week 2 game in Denver, 16-14 by making a 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. Heading into the team's MNF Week 3 game at Washington, QB Mitchell Trubisky, the team's "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft," had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions. The Bears beat the sad-sack Redskins 31-15 in that MNF game and then their defense dominated in a 16-6 home win in Week 4 over the Vikings. Now it's off to London for 3-1 Chicago for a meeting with the 2-2 Oakland Raiders.Oakland is hoping to build off a 31-24 triumph at Indianapolis last Sunday. The Raiders ran 188 yards on the ground in the win, with rookie Josh Jacobs gaining 79 on 17 carries, as they avoided a third straight loss while playing the second of five consecutive contests away from Oakland. The Raiders will be playing in London for the second straight season and internationally for the FIFTH time in six years.

Trubisky suffered a left shoulder injury during Chicago's first possession last week and is expected to miss this game. It's hard to say he'll be missed all that much. Chase Daniel will be under center after completing 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown vs the Vikings in relief. Daniel is a 10-year vet and will make his third start in two seasons with Chicago. He went a combined 53 of 76 (69.7%) for 515 yards with three TDs and two INTs in two starts last season (a win at Detroit and loss at the NY Giants). The Bears bring one of the NFL's best defenses to London, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 290.8 YPG (5th).

Oakland's Derek Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes and has been greatly helped by Jacobs, a rookie RB from Alabama. Jacobs has 307 rushing yards this season (5.0 YPC), eclipsing the team record for most by a player in his first four career games. TE Darren Waller grabbed a share of an NFL record last week a swell, increasing his reception total to 33, tying Antonio Gates (2007) for most by a tight end in his team's first four contests of a season. Oakland's defense is another story, as the Raiders rank 25th in allowing 25.5 PPG on 390.2 YPG (alos 25th).

Oakland's 31-24 win at Indy last week makes them just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS on the road since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. The 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Again, this is a neutral site game but it's also a 10:00 a.m. Pacific time start, games in which the Raiders have struggled. I expect the Bears to have little trouble scoring here plus I also think the Raiders' offense is jelling. With this tantalizingly low over/under number, the play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Ohio/Buffalo Over at 3:30 ET.

Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has since lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 loss at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 2, entering that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns (note: ULL is 4-1 & 5-0 ATS in 2019). The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and now begin their MAC schedule with EIGHT straight games, including FOUR weekday games in November.

Ohio begins its MAC 'journey' in Buffalo against the Bulls. Buffalo rebounded from four straight non-winning seasons (2014-17) to go 10-4 in 2018, a season which ended with a heart-breaking 30-29 loss in the MAC championship game vs Northern Illinois and then a 42-32 loss to Troy in the Dollar General Bowl. The Bulls opened 2-2 in non-league play but as a small road favorite in their MAC opener last Saturday, lost 34-20 to Miami, Ohio.Buffalo gained 309 yards rushing (two players topped 100 yards) but had just 89 yards through the air, as QB Matt Myers completed just 4 of 16 passes while throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice.

As bad a start as Ohio has had, the Bobcats have yet to play a MAC game, so this game can be seen a a "new beginning." The problem is, this is arguably Solich's worst defensive team. The Bobcats are allowing 29.5 PPG (88th) on 464.0 YPG (116th). The Buffalo D also leaves much to be desired, as after beating FCS Robert Morris 38-10, the Bulls have allowed 34.0 PPG over the last four games. The home team has won NINE straight games in this series and the Bulls (winners of the MAC East in 2018) will no doubt remember losing 52-17 in Athens last November (note: Bulls entered that game 9-1). I'm NOT saying the Bobcats will not be competitive but they will need to score often to do so. The Play is OVER.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb?

Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times.

Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests.

It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday.

Yes, I like Denver but what I like even more is the Over. I really like what I see with Minshew and as noted, Denver's D seems to still be a "work in progress." Conditions will be near-perfect in Denver and this is one of just TWO totals under 40. Getting back to Denver's great home record in September, let me add that in those 13 straight Sep home wins (before the team's Week 2 loss in 2019), the Broncos had averaged 29.2 PPG. I'm "all in" on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Indiana/Mich St Over at 3:30 ET.

Michigan State (3-1 / 1-0 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its 10-7 home loss to Arizona St on Sep 14, with a solid 31-10 win at Northwestern last Saturday in the team's conference opener. MSU dropped out of the AP top-25 after losing to ASU but is back in (barely, at No. 25) after the win over the Wildcats. Speaking of bounce-back performances, Indiana (3-1 / 0-1 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season last Saturday, limiting Connecticut's offense to just 145 total yards in a 38-3 win. That was quite an improvement from Indiana's 51-10 loss at Ohio St on Sep 14, when the Buckeyes rolled up 520 yards. 

Peyton Ramsey was Indiana's starting QB in both 2017 and 2018 but he lost his starting job to redshirt freshman Michael Penix Jr. entering 2019. Penix threw for 326 yards but threw two INTs in Indiana's 34-24 season-opening over Ball St. Up next was Eastern Illinois and after throwing for 197 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in the first half, Ramsey came in and went 13 of 14 for 226 yards with two TDs (0 INTs) in a 51-0 rout. However, Penix has been out with an undisclosed injury the last two games. Ramsey had no success vs Ohio St buthe was near perfect against UConn, completing 23-of-27 passes for 247 yards and three TDs (no INTs). Indiana's defense has been just fine against Ball St, Eastern Illinois and UConn but as noted, got overwhelmed by Ohio St.

Michigan St does not own an offense in the class of Ohio St but except for its awful showing against ASU, the Spartans have averaged 36.7 PPG in their other three wins. Brian Lewerke is a senior QB and he's completing 62.3% with seven TDs and only one INT, while passing for 1,025 yards. RB Collins has added357 yards (5.9 YPC) and is a nice complement. Mark Dantonio's teams always play excellent defense and this year's team is allowing 11.0 PPG (10th) on 228.5 YPG (3rd).

Michigan St has dominated this series the last 20 meetings, winning 17! I don't see that changing here, as I believe the MSU offense will have plenty of success against the Indiana defense. Not Ohio St-like success, but I'll take the team's 36.7 PPG average excluding the ASU game. Consider these two factoids. This is Mark Dantonio's 13th season at East Lansing and MSU has played Indiana 10 times in his first 12, averaging 40.3 PPG. As for Lewerke, let me add that only ONE Michigan State QB has thrown for 6,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 in his career (Drew Stanton). Lewerke will join Stanton with 39 more yards rushing. My point? He's better than most think. Yes, MSU's defense is strong but Indiana head coach Tom Allen is keeping the Spartans guessing as to which QB will start, Ramsey or Penix. MSU has dominated the series the last two decades but Indiana owns one win over the last three meetings, winning by three in OT (2016), before losing by eight and 14 the last two. I expect the Hoosiers to surprise by moving the ball (and getting into the end zone), more than most think. This total is low enough to 'sail' over.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Rutgers/Michigan Over at 12:00 ET.

Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh so he could return the Wolverines to the "top of the college football world." However, that has NOT quite been n the case. Harbaugh is 0-4 against Ohio State and Michigan's 35-17 loss ('ass kicking') at Wisconsin was just another in a growing list of Michigan failures on the road against ranked opponents in Harbuagh's tenure. The Wolverines fell behind 28-0 at the half in Madison and when Michigan finally scored (with just 2:03 remaining in the third quarter), Wisconsin had already scored 35 points. The Michigan defense was shredded for 487 yards, including a WHOPPING 359 on the ground (6.3 YPC). Michigan returns to Ann Arbor Saturday to take on Rutgers, which checks in at 1-2 (0-1 Big Ten). Rutgers opened the 2019 season with a 48-21 win over UMass, ending an 11-game losing streak but has followed with a 30-0 loss at Iowa and a 30-16 home loss to BC.

The Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014 and after going 8-5 (3-5 in Big Ten) that first season, have lost 32 of their last 36 conference games, including 13 in a row heading into Saturday's contest. There was some good news coming out of last weeks loss to BC, as QB Artur Sitkowski had one of the best games of his young career. The sophomore QB completed 23-of-33 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown. Head coach Chris Ash revealed he will get the start against Michiga,  as McLane Carter remains in the concussion protocol. Michigan QB Shea Patterson has looked uncomfortable in the team's new offense and both of his TD passes came after Michigan was down 35-0. He finished 14-of-32 for 219 yards with one interception plus lost a fumble. Backup QB Dylan McCaffrey went 3-of-8 for 40 yards before he was knocked out of the game by a high hit that drew a targeting penalty. He we will miss Saturday's game with a concussion.

Here's the bottom line. Rutgers is simply in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Maybe Ash could have counted on Harbaugh to "go easy" on him but NOT coming off last week's HUGELY disappointing 18-point loss at Wisconsin. Harbaugh got to Michigan in 2015 and the year before, Rutgers beat Michigan 26-24. Harbaugh's 'blasted' the Scarlet Knights in each of his first four meetings, averaging a WHOPPING 51.0 PPG. I can see Michigan "going over" all by themselves in this one but I also think we'll get some points out of Rutgers, after seeing Sitkowski throw for 304 yards against BC last Saturday. Michigan will score early and often (and may not stop), but watch for Rutgers to get a couple (or three) TDs of its own.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on NO/Sea Over at 4:25 ET.

My 10* Total of the Week is on Mich State/Northwestern Over at 12:00 ET.

Michigan State and Northwestern meet at Evanston in the Big Ten opener for each school this Saturday at 12 noon ET. The Spartans are coming off a disappointing 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State last weekend, while the Wildcats earned their first win of the season last Saturday, topping UNLV 30-14. Michigan State did very little offensively against the Sun Devils, after putting up 51 points the previous Saturday against Western Michigan, while gaining 582 yards. MSU scored just once on ASU and then had a potential game-tying FG get wiped off the board in the final seconds due to a penalty. Northwestern opened the season with a 17-7 loss at Stanford on Aug 31, gaining a pathetic 210 yards. That performance looks even worse now, as Stanford has allowed 45 points in each of its last two games, while allowing 492 and 545 yards, respectively. The Wildcats beat UNLV 30-14 last Saturday at home, rolling up 441 yards, including 276 on the ground (5.5 YPC).

MSU had plenty complaints about the officiating in the ASU loss, as the Spartans outgained the Sun Devils 404-to-216 in total yards. 10 penalties surely hurt but so did THREE missed FGs attempts and poor execution in critical points of the game. QB Brian Lewerke passed for 291 yards but did not throw a TD, after passing fo 314 yards and three TDs vs Western Michigan. The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging a modest 157.3 YPG (81st), with Elijah Collins leading the way with 281 yards (6.4 YPC) and one TD. MSU's defense is a good as ever, allowing 11.3 PPG (12th) on 216.0 YPG (3rd), including 23.3 YPG on the ground (1st).

The Wildcats ran for 276 yards on the ground against UNLV (5.5 YPC) but as noted, the MSU run defense is pretty good. The key for Northwestern will be QB Hunter Johnson. He transferred from Clemson in 2017 and sat out last year. The Wildcats are counting on him to fulfill his promise, as he was rated as a five-star recruit and was ranked among the top recruits in the 2017 class. Johnson was ranked by Rivals.com as the number 18 overall player (across every position) in the nation and was the 2016 Rivals 5-star challenge quarterback MVP.

Northwestern has won its last THREE meetings against Michigan State and FOUR of the last five, overall. Northwestern’s record as an underdog (14-5-1 ATS its last 20) and Dantonio’s 3-10 ATS mark as a road favorite point to the Wildcats. That said, I like the OVER even more. The total is currently below 40 and note that the Wildcats have averaged 340 passing yards in their last three meetings with MSU (expect a breakout game by Johnson). Also, let's NOT forget that MSU scored 51 points on 582 yards against Western Michigan. Then last Saturday, penalties, missed FGs and poor execution at critical points kept MSU to just seven points despite gaining over 400 yards. This game starts early (12 noon ET) and goes OVER before the start of the 4th quarter.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late-Breaker is on LAD/NYM Over at 7:05 ET.

The New York Mets are fighting to stay in the National League wild card race and welcomed the NL's best team to Citi Field this weekend for a three-game series. The Mets lost Friday's opener 9-2 to Clayton Kershaw and then couldn't figure out Ryu through seven innings on Saturday (tied at 0-0). However,  a three-run, pinch-hit double in the eighth off LA's bullpen gave New York a 3-0 victory. The win was the FIFTH in six games for the Mets and kept them three games behind the Chicago Cubs in the race for the second NL wild spot (the Mets also trail Milwaukee by two games). The loss dropped LA to 96-54, two games back of the NY Yankees for MLB's best record plus it also allowed the Braves to creep within three games of the Dodgers for the NL's best record. The rubber match of this series takes place tonight on ESPN and it HAS significance.

Taking the mound will be Walker Buehler (13-3, 3.14 ERA) and Zack Wheeler (11-7, 4.21 ERA). Buehler dominated at Baltimore on Tuesday, scattering four hits over seven scoreless innings and struck out 11 in a 7-3 win. The 25-year-old has not allowed a run in FOUR of his last six starts but in the other two, against also-rans Colorado and Miami, he allowed 11 ERs in just nine innings!Buehler has faced the Mets just once in his career,  allowing five ERs in five innings back on May 29, getting a no-decision in a 9-8 LA win.

Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. Wheeler enters this contest having gone 5-1 in nine starts since coming off the injured list in late July. The Mets are 7-2 in those nine starts, with both losses came against the Braves .Think LA has anything in common with Atlanta?

So let's break it down. Over Wheeler's last nine starts since coming off the DL, the Mets have won SEVEN times, with him allowing just nine ERs over 43 innings (1.88 ERA). However, in two meetings with the division-leading Braves, he's allowed 10 ERs while lasting just 11 innings (8.18 ERA). The Dodgers are the NL's best team and in three career starts against the them, Wheeler owns a 7.88 ERA. LA ranks fifth in scoring (5.43 RPG) and OPS (.810), as well as ranking third in HRs with 260. I expect them to 'rough up' Wheeler. As for Buehler, he can be unhittable at times but as I noted earlier (see above for a reminder), he's capable of a "bad day." He had  one of those bad days in his lone career start against Mets (again, see above). I say go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Hou Over at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans led the Saints 14-3 at the half on Monday night but found themselves down 27-21 with 50 seconds left in the game, after a New Orleans FG. However, they then went 75 yards in two plays to take the lead with 37 seconds left, only to lose on a 58-yard FG with 0:00 remaining on the clock. Houston doesn't want to hear anything about "moral" victories. The Jags opened their 2019 season, after an 0-4 preseason, at home against the high-powered KC Chiefs and their dynamic QB, Pat Mahomes. The Jacksonville D never came close to containing KC, as the Chiefs scored 40 points on 491 yards in the 14-point win. Mahomes passed for 378 yards with three TDs, all to WR Sammy Watkins (9 for 198). Nick Foles, who signed a four-year, $88 million contract in March, broke his left clavicle in the first quarter and had surgery Monday (he is out until at least Week 11).However, rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and impressed in his NFL debut.

The Jags visit their AFC rivals Sunday in Houston and in speaking about Minshew, head coach Doug Marrone told reporters, “He’s one of the few guys I’ve been around who can go from the classroom and really take it right onto the field. The other day was an unbelievable indication of that. I don’t know how many people – especially rookies – can go out not having done anything during the week and play like that.” Minshew completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs (both in the 4th quarter) and an interception in the 40-26 loss.

The Watson (268 yards and three TDs) to Watkins connection was in mid-season form plus with Lamar Smith out for the season, the newly constructed backfield tandem also got the job done last week. Carlos Hyde rushed for 83 yards just nine days after being acquired from Kansas City and Duke Johnson recorded 90 yards from scrimmage in his debut for the Texans. However, the defense surrendered 510 total yards to the Saints and had a hard time getting pressure in the backfield, recording just one sack and no tackles for loss.

Both defense got 'lit up' last week and what changes, here? The Texans won the AFC South last season at 11-5 and with Luck retired, are favored to win it again in 2019. An 0-2 start would be a 'killer.' That said, Houston's defense is a real question mark. Minshew is bouyed by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette ( but YPC) and the receiving corps showed off its newfound depth against the Chiefs. SIX players caught four or more passes for the Jags last Sunday, with Conley catching six (97 yards and one TD) and Chalk (four catches for 146 yards, that 36.5 per and a score). This one should be 'OVER' by the time the game reaches the fourth quarter!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sep Total of the Month is on Texas/Rice Over at 8:00 ET.

The marquee game last weekend was No. 6 LSU at No. 9 Texas. The Longhorns missed some scoring opportunities but was still in the game, trailing 37-31 with just under three minutes left in the game. However, LSU hit a 61-yard scoring pass AND converted a two-point conversion. A late Texas TD made the final 45-38.Junior quarterback Sam Ehlinger passed for a career-high 401 yards and threw four TDs vs LSU, after passing for 276 yards and four TDs in three quarters of a 45-14 win over La Tech on Aug 31. The now 12th-ranked Longhorns will play 0-2 Rice on Saturday at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Texans). Rice opened with a closer-than-expected 14-7 loss at Army and then allowed Wake Forest to run up 513 yards of total offense last week in a 41-21 loss at home.

Had a couple more things broken Texas’ way in Week 2, they’d be 2-0 right now. All-in-all, the Longhorns put up a good effort against a tough LSU defense and if Wake could roll up 513 yards on Rice, expect Texas to do the same. Texas scored more than 40 points just three times in 2018, each time against an opponent which finished in the bottom half in the country in scoring defense. As we saw last week against a top-flight LSU defense, this year's Longhorns could very well average 40 PPG in 2019.

Rice announced early in the week that freshman QB Wiley Green would not start vs the Longhorns after he suffered a hit to the head against Wake Forest that resulted in him leaving the field on a backboard and a trip to the hospital. Tom Stewart, a graduate transfer from Harvard had a 14-2 ratio last season, finished the game in place of Green and passed for 185 yards and a score. The Texas pass D was shredded by LSU's Joe Burrow, who torched the Longhorns for 471 yards and four TDs (forgivable) but how about La Tech's J'Mar Smith throwing for 331 yards and two TDs.

Expect Texas to move at will against Rice but don't be surprised if Rice gets a few scores, as well. These former SWC rivals own a long history, with Texas leading 72-21-1. The Longhorns have won 41 of the last 42, including 13 straight. The schools last met in 2015, with Texas winning 42-28. I'll take that final here.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Cin/Sea Over at 4:05 ET.

Zac Taylor, the newest member of the NFL's under-40 coaching fraternity,has replaced Marvin Lewis (16 seasons) as head coach at Cincinnati. The 36-year-old takes his Bengals to Seattle for a Week 1 contest with the Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks feature the new highest-paid player in the NFL in QB Russell Wilson, the highest-paid inside linebacker in the league in All-Pro Bobby Wagner plus just added a prime asset to their defense with the recent acquisition of pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Lewis led the Benglas to seven postseasons, including FIVE straight from 2011-15, but NEVER won a single playoff game. After three straight losing seasons from 2016-18, Lewis was finally let go. Pete Carroll begins his 10th season as Seattle's head coach and he's taken the Seahawks to SEVEN postseason in nine years, including back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. Seattle won it all in 2013 and then in 2014, Carroll made one of the most infamous of all Super Bowl play-calls, as the Seahawks fell to the Pats. That said, while the Bengals are hardly considered playoff material in 2019, the Seahawks are expected to be a contender in the NFC.

QB Andy Dalton has seven 3,000-yard seasons in his career but is facing criticism at age 31 on whether he is the long-term solution under the new coaching regime. However, Taylor has publicly  praised him and the fact remains that Cincy has skill position talent even without injured wide-out A.J. Green.It should be noted that Bengals opened lat season 5-3, before an injury-decimated team finished by losing SEVEN of its last eight games. Russell Wilson is primed for a big year, as in 2018, he joined Peyton Manning as the only QBs in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in each of their first SEVEN seasons. What's more, the Seahawks had the top rushing offense in the NFL in 2018, averaging 160.0 YPG. Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs) and Marshawn has been long forgotten. On the other side of the ball, Clowney's addition late in training camp displayed the urgency Seattle felt at improving a defense that has slipped in recent seasons and allowed 353.3 YPG last season, ranking 16th of 32 teams (quite a drop-off from "The Legion of Boom" days).

Seattle is 14-0 in home games in September over the last nine seasons and averaged 28.5 PPG at home in 2018. However, as noted above, the team's D is not what it used to be. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of seven or more points during the last two seasons and I believe the Bengals just may give Seattle some trouble here.I fully expect Wilson (and his new and improved running game) to match or exceed its home scoring average from last year but I also expect Dalton and Co. to move the ball as well. O-V-E-R is the way to go!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Tulsa/San Jose St Over at 9:00 ET.

The Tulsa Golden Hurricane had a tough assignment in Week 1, traveling to East Lansing for a game with preseason No. 18 Michigan State. Tulsa was smothered by the MSU defense, gaining just 80 yards and eight FDs in the 28-7 loss. Tulsa has a much easier assignment this Saturday, as it visits San Jose State. These Spartans opened 2019 with a 35-18 home win over Northern Colorado, as QB Josh Love passed for 224 yards with two TDs.

Tulsa actually held its own last week on the road against a ranked Michigan State team and the pointspread (Tulsa is about a TD favorite) reflects the team's better than expected showing against MSU. Tulsa is again matched up against a team nick-named the Spartans but San Jose St is NO Michigan St. QB Zach Smith is a Baylor transfer (he started 10 games for the Bears in (2016-17) and look for a breakout game here (he owns an 'elite arm'), vs a San Jose St defense that has allowed 36.6, 41.7 and 34.7 PPG the last three seasons. As for San Jose St, last week's win matched the team's win total from 2018 (1-11). The Spartans should be able to match Tulsa score-for-score, as Tulsa allowed 34.5 PPG in its six road games of 2018. Tulsa enters this game with a 13-game road losing skid and can only win by outscoring San Jose St. I'll stay away from the SU winner but will go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Oregon/Auburn Over at 7:30 ET.

Every school ranked in the AP's preseason poll will play in Week 1 (note: No. 8 Florida opened its season last Saturday vs Miami.) However, there is just ONE Week 1 contest which features a game between two ranked opponents and that's No. 11 Oregon taking on No. 16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. These schools have met just ONCE before but it was a memorable one. Led by Heisman winner Cam Newton, the Tigers defeated the Ducks 22-19 on Jan. 10, 2011 in the 2010 BCS national championship game, winning on a 19-yard FG as time expired.

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a 9-4 season in 2018 season, which included a 7-6 Redbox Bowl win over Michigan State. QB Justin Herbert decided to NOT enter the 2019 draft (many thought he's be a top-5 pick) and is expected to have a HUGE year. His 2018 season was pretty good, as he threw for 3,151 yards with 29 TDs and just eight INTs. Leading receiver Dillon Mitchell (75 catches / 1184 yards / 10 TDs) is gone but Jaylon Redd (38 catches) is expected to fill his role for this season. Oregon also brought in Juwan Johnson, a graduate transfer from Penn State (32 receptions last season) plus Cristobal also recruited four very highly touted freshman receivers, led by Mycah Pittman. CJ Verdell (1,018 yards / 10 TDs) and Travis Dye 739 yards / 4 TDs) give the Oregon offense great balance.The defense returns seven starters, including LB Troy Dye who was far and away the Ducks' leading tackler (109). Oregon also landed landing #1 overall prospect DE Kayvon Thibodeaux.

While the Ducks will feature a senior QB in Herbert, Auburn will start a freshman quarterback (Bo Nix) for the first time since 1946. However, he owns "good genes," as his father Patrick led Auburn to an 11-0 season in 1993. Nix is expected to be a dual-threat but Auburn also boasts one of the better RB tandems in the SEC, as JaTarvious Whitlow and Kam Martin combined for 1,245 yards last season. The Tigers' top-two pass catchers from last season, Darius Slayton (NYG) and Ryan Davis (Pats), are off to the NFL, so expect Seth Williams, who led the SEC in yards per reception at 20.5, to emerge as Nix's top option. The defense returns seven starters and note that Auburn's defense is one of four units (along with No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama and No. 12 Washington) to finish in the top-15 in scoring defense in each of the last three seasons!

"The hype machine" is on 'high' in Eugene but let's remember that the Ducks were just 5-4 in a watered-down Pac-12 in 2018. No, this isn't a bowl game but it is a major neutral-site, intersectional showdown (Pac-12/SEC ), so the Pac-12's sad-sack 3-19 ATS mark the last three bowl seasons is noteworthy. Head coach Gus Malzahn is back calling the plays for Auburn and all reports say Nix has all the tools to make Tigers 'run on all cylinders.' Expect Auburn to score plenty here Oregon and while the Auburn D is always tough, Herbert is excellent and he has plenty of 'weapons.' Let's leave it here. This is Oregon's first neutral-site opening game since 2011, when the Ducks lost to another SEC school (LSU), 40-27. Sounds about right. I'm Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFLX Total of the Year is on GB/Bal Over at 7:30 ET.

I had a "Best Bet" win with the Ravens in Week 1 (29-0 over the Jags), saying "What I can't ignore is that John Harbaugh leads his team into the 2019 preseason on a 13-game winning streak, going 11-2 ATS (that's an 85% winning situation). Sure, the Ravens will eventually lose a preseason game but isn't that what a reasonable person would have said entering 2018? However, Baltimore then went 5-0 in 2018's preseason, which began with a HOF game win." So here we go again. The Ravens are now on a 14-game win streak (12-2 ATS), as they welcome the Packers to M&T Bank Stadium on Thursday.

Matt LaFleur’s guided Green Bay to a 28-26 home win over the Houston Texans at Lambeau Field in his head coaching debut for the Packers last Thursday. Aaron Rodgers was nowhere to be found but QB DeShone Kizer somehow managed to not commit any errors, going 8 of 13 for 102 yards and a touchdown, while Tim Boyle had 40 passing yards and two TD passes on 4-for-5 completions. A win is a win but there has to be some concern that the Green Bay D allowed 419 yards (and 29 FDs!), 'escaping' because Houston committed FOUR turnovers (or did Green Bay force those TOs?).

Baltimore has entered the "Lamar Jackson era" and the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner directed two scoring drives in three possessions last Thursday. Speaking of turnovers, Baltimore’s defense had FOUR interceptions, including one that was returned for a TD by cornerback Cyrus Jones. Not sure if the Ravens will use Jackson as much here (he played the entire 1Q in Week 1) and if that's the case, rookie QB Trace McSorely will have a bigger load. McSorely had 85 passing yards and an interception on 9-for-22 completions against the Jags.

The Packers don’t have any urgent reason to play Aaron Rodgers in these exhibition games but the veteran did offer a hint at his upcoming schedule recently by saying, "I'm probably gonna play, I would assume, in the second and third games,” That said, we should expect to see plenty of Kizer, Boyle, and rookie Manny Wilkins sharing the quarterbacking duties. Kizer has been known for his carelessness since joining the NFL, so he could be a 'sitting duck' for Baltimore’s relentless stop unit. I won't back Baltimore here but rather I'm "Goin' Over." Baltimore averaged 25.4 PPG in going 5-0 during last year's preseason and opened by scoring 29 points in 2019's Week 1. Up against a GB defense that allowed 400--plus yards at home (as well as 29 FDs), I don't see the Ravens having much trouble scoring again here, whichever QB is playing. However, the Baltimore D doesn't figure to be quite as stingy this week and let's NOT ignore the fact that the Packers scored 28 points last week, even without Rodgers. Not sure why this total has dropped from the Opening Number but I view this a s 'rocking chair' Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Goin' Over Total is on SD/Pit Over at 4:05 ET.

Jose Osuna delivered a tiebreaking single in the eighth inning to lift Pittsburgh to a 2-1 victory over San Diego last night, snapping the Padres' four-game winning streak. The win gave the Pirates back-to-back victories for only the SECOND time this month and Pittsburgh will be seeking its longest winning streak in Saturday's game, since taking three straight from the San Diego Padres back on May 17-19. The Pirates also can make it FIVE in a row over the visiting Padres when the teams resume their three-game series Saturday afternoon at PNC Park.

Chris Paddack (4-4, 3.15 ERA) gets the start for San Diego and Chris Archer (3-6, 5.85 ERA) for Pittsburgh. Paddack missed the entire 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery and pitched limited innings in the minors last year. However, he was healthy at the start of 2019 and the Padres expected big things from him. Why not? In 37 career appearances in the minor leagues, he had a 1.82 ERA with 230 strikeouts and only 20 walks in 177.2 innings. He was good as advertised in his first seven major league starts, going 3-1 (team was 6-1) with a 1.55 ERA and 46-10 KW ratio (18 hits allowed in 40.2 innings). However, he is 0-2 in his last three starts (SD is 0-3), allowing 13 runs (12 earned) and failing to pitch beyond five innings in each (7.36 ERA).

Injuries have ravaged Pittsburgh's starting rotation and Archer missed 18 days because of right thumb inflammation. Archer was an "underachiever" with the Rays and has followed that theme here with Pittsburgh. He hasn't found his form consistently since coming off the injured list in mid-May and he is 2-4 with a 6.93 ERA in his seven starts since May 15. Extending further back, he has given up 15 HRs over his last nine starts and owns that 5.85 ERA on heh season, along witha 1.52 WHIP.

The Padres are averaging 6.7 RPG in 13 road day games vs righties in 2019 plus had averaged 10.29 RPG in their previous seven games prior to last night. There is no reason to feel that San Diego WON'T get to Archer. As for Pittsburgh, the Pirates have averaged 6.4 RPG in 11 home days games vs right-handers and should continue Paddack's recent troubles. I'll also note that Pittsburgh has won FIVE in a row over San Diego, so the play here is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Goin' Over Total is on LAD/SD Over at 10:15 ET.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have won SIX of their seven series against NL West opponents in 2019 (15-6 record inside the division). LA visits San Francisco Friday for the first contest of a three-game series with the Giants. Surprisingly, half of LA's division losses (and the Dodgers' only series loss) have come against the 25-36 Giants, who own the second-worst record in the NL and will begin the weekend 17 games behind Los Angeles! The Dodgers are 8-0-2 in series play since dropping two of three in San Francisco from April 29-May 1, going 23-7 in individual games. The Giants are returning home after a 4-5 road trip in which they displayed their offensive capability at times before wrapping up their trek by getting outscored 14-3 in a pair of losses to the New York Mets. Comparing the two teams we find that the Dodgers lead the NL in team batting average (.265) and runs scored (340), while the Giants rank last (.221) and second-to-last (236), respectively.

Friday's pitching matchup is a complete mismatch. Clayton Kershaw (5-0, 3.20 ERA) takes the mound for LA and Drew Pomeranz (1-6, 8.08 ERA) for San Fran. The Dodgers have won all NINE of Kershaw's 2019 starts, as he has pitched at least six innings in each of his nine outings. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is 22-10 with a 1.68 ERA in 44 starts against the Giants (teams are 28-16). In stark comparison, Pomeranz is likely fighting to keep his spot in the rotation, after coming off one of the worst outings of his career last Friday in Baltimore. He allowed eight runs on six hits and two walks, lasting just 1.1 innings. The veteran lefty has not reach the fourth inning in any of his last FOUR starts, allowing 22 ERs on 25 hits over 10.1 innings for an astronomical 20.17 ERA.

Pomeranz owns a respectable 3.24 ERA in eight career starts vs LA (he's 1-4 and the team is 4-4) but that means no more than his 17-6 (3.32 ERA) with Boston in 2017, does. The Dodgers could 'cover' this over/under number themselves plus let me point out that in Kershaw's last five starts, the final scores have averaged 10.6 RPG. Play the Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NL Total of the Month is on Phi/SD Over at 10:10 ET.

Philadelphia lost 8-2 last night in San Diego, the team's FIFTH straight defeat. That skid comes on the heels of Philadelphia winning FIVE of its previous six and the Phillies are now in danger of falling out of first place in the National League East (currently own just a half-game lead over the Braves). The loss makes Philly 0-4 on the team's current road trip and adding insult to injury, Andrew McCutchen exited in the first inning of last night's contest with a knee injury while trying to avoid a tag during a rundown. As for San Diego, the Padres bounced back from a pair of 9-3 home losses to Miami on Sunday, breaking open a tie game with a SEVEN-run sixth inning that featured a grand slam by Manny Machado.

The pitchung matchup for the middle contest of this three-game series will feature Jerad Eickhoff (2-3, 4.10 ERA) and Chris Paddack (4-3, 2.40 ERA). Eickhoff's first start of 2019 didn't come until April 21 (he lost 4-1). However, over his next three starts (Apr 26-May 8), he allowed just ONE one earned run over 20 innings, going 2-0 with an 0.45 ERA (Phils were 3-0). To put it mildly, the right-hander hasn't able to keep that up. He has struggled mightily over his last four starts, going 0-2 with a 8.35 ERA, a .329 BAA and a 1.58 WHIP. San Diego's Paddack has been a rookie sensation, although the 'bloom may be coming off the rose.' Paddack had a 1.55 ERA and had allowed only 18 hits in 40.2 innings over his first seven starts. However, he's had two bad outings over his last three. He did beat Arizona 2-1 on May 20 but that starts was preceded by a 6-3 loss to the Dodgers and followed by a 7-0 loss to the Mets. He lasted just 9.2 innings in those two outings, allowing seven ERs on 11 hits (five HRs!), for a 6.52 ERA.

Speaking of allowing HRs, Eichoff has served up 10 HRs over 18.1 innings during his rough stretch (see above). Yes, Eickoff owns a 3-0 career record against San Diego with a 1.96 ERA covering four starts (team is 3-1) but he hasn't faced them since 2017. As for Paddack, he has never faced the Phillies. Here's what I read prior to his last start. "Paddack is dealing with neck stiffness but is expected to make his next scheduled start Wednesday against the Yankees." He made that start and it is arguably the worst of his 10 major league starts. He gave up four runs -- three on solo HRs -- on six hits and a walk with six strikeouts in just five innings. This one is Goin' Over this low total.

Good luck...Larry

The Pittsburgh Pirates split the first eight games of their 11-game road trip but then swept the final three in San Diego. The Pirates are happy to have finished the trek 7-4 and now return to Pittsburgh to open a six-game homestand with three against the slumping Colorado Rockies. I’m proud of the effort,'' Pirates manager Clint Hurdle told reporters. "I’m proud of the energy, and the offense is starting to do some things that are significant, as well. It was a fun trip for us. It was a good baseball trip.” Colorado is wrapping up  an eight-game road trip here in Pittsburgh. The Rockies won the opener of their trip but have since lost the next four, including a three-game sweep at Philadelphia over the weekend.

German Marquez (4-2, 3.80 ERA) will get the nod on Tuesday for Colorado, while Pittsburgh counters with Chris Archer (1-3, 5.58 ERA). Marquez had allowed just  five runs in 29 innings over four road starts before giving up five runs on 10 hits across 6.1 innings in Colorado's 6-5 loss to Boston on Wednesday (he received a no-decision). That outing is part of a recent disturbing trend that has seen Marquez post a 5.76 ERA in his last four starts, after posting a 2.54 ERA through his first six starts of 2019. Marquez is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Pirates.

Injuries have ravaged Pittsburgh's pitchers and Archer permitted seven runs (six earned) on four hits and four walks over 3.2 innings of an 11-1 loss at Arizona on Wednesday, his first start since April 26 (he had missed 18 days because of right thumb inflammation). Last Wednesday's outing was the SECOND straight in which he had allowed six ERs. His 4.7 walks per nine innings would be the worst rate of his career. Yes, Archer is 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA in two career starts against Colorado (14 strikeouts in 11 innings) but who can remember that pitcher?

Really, Archer has just become a career underachiever. He struggled in three starts before the injury, going 0-2 with a 5.63 ERA (Pittsburgh lost all three games), then was awful again last Wednesday (see above for a reminder). The Rockies are getting a bit of a break with the Pirates' pitching challenges. Strong opposing pitching has been a theme on the trip. In 48 innings, the Rockies have struck out 66 times against the likes of Boston's Chris Sale and the Phillies' Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff.  Expect Colorado to reach Archer (everyone else has) but also note Marquez's 5.76 ERA in his last four starts. It's Gioin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AL TOTAL OF MONTH is on NYY/TB Over at 7:10 ET.

The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees Friday night, in the first of three games between the AL East's top-two teams. Tampa Bay has been atop the division all season and currently sits 23-13, 1 1/2-games up on New York. As for the Yankees, they have overcome a 6-9 start and despite being ravaged by injuries (including to prominent names such as Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge), have climbed back in the race at 22-15, having gone 16-6 since April 16

Friday's pitching matchup will feature Domingo German (6-1, 2.35 ERA) and Tyler Glasnow (6-0, 1.47 ERA)> hardly 'household names, the duo is tied with Minnesota's Berrios for the most wins in the majors. German's made six starts and one relief appearance (in which he picked up a win) so far in 2019. He owns a 39-12 KW ratio, 0.89 WHIP and opponents are batting .225 against him. Glasnow won American League Pitcher of the Month for March and April and in his first May start, limited Baltimore to three hits over seven scoreless innings with eight strikeouts last Friday. He has yet to give up more than two runs in his seven starts and boasts 46 strikeouts to go along with seven walks across 43 innings, posting an 0.86 WHIP with opponents batting just .197 against him.

Is this a "guaranteed" under? Not so fast! German owns a 7.36 ERA in three appearances (two starts) against Tampa Bay last year and Glasnow will be facing the Yankees for the first time since being acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year ( will face the Yankees for the first time since being acquired from Pittsburgh at the trade deadline last year (his lone appearance against New York occurred in Pittsburgh on April 21, 2017, when he allowed three runs (one earned) in 4.2 innings). Are these two young pitchers for real? Let me note that German entered the season with a 2-7 record and a 5.22 ERA, after posting a 5.57 ERA in 21 appearances last season. Meanwhile, Glasnow entered this season 4-16 with a 5.35 ERA in 67 career appearances (28 starts) for Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay. I'm Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on NYY/SFG Over at 4:05 ET.

The Yankees famously have have a major league-high 13 players on the injured list but are lucky that power-hitting first baseman Luke Voit isn't one of them. Voit was 3-for-4 with a HR and three RBI in Friday’s 7-3 victoryat San Francisco and has now reached base safely in a career-high 36 straight games. The Giants saw their three-game winning streak come to an end and have now scored three or less runs in FIVE of their last seven contests.

Saturday's pitching matchup is a meeting of lefties, as J .A. Happ (0-2, 5.96 ERA) takes on Derek Holland (1-3, 4.33 ERA). Happ is one of NINE pitchers in MLB to earn at least 10 wins in each of the past five seasons but one couldn't tell that by the way he's pitched so far in 2019. He's yet to earn a win through five starts (Yanks are 3-2 in his starts) , as opponents are batting .275 against him and he owns a 1.40 WHIP. Holland lost his second straight decision last Saturday, after giving up three runs on four hits over five innings against Pittsburgh. He does own an impressive 34-13 KW ratio over 27 innings but he's allowed a HR in each of his first five starts (Giants are 1-4).

Both starters are very familiar with their opponents tonight and their records against those opponents are why I'm playing this contest OVER. Happ owns a 1-4 record and 4.80 ERA in five career starts versus the Giants, while Holland is 1-7 with a 6.38 ERA in 11 career games (10 starts) vs the Yankees. Last night's over/under number was "7" with two much better pitchers on the mound (Paxton & Bumgarner) and the final was 7-3. Not sure why we see a similar over/under number in the Happ/Holland matchup? I guess we'll find out.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Bos/Ind Over at 1:05 ET.

The Indiana Pacers (48-34) went 8-14 down the stretch and the Boston Celtics (49-33) were able to earn the East's No. 4 seed and the homecourt advantage in their first round series with the Pacers, despite going just 7-6 down the stretch. In what was supposed to be a six or seven game series, Boston has controlled both ends of the floor against Indiana and with a 3-0 series lead, can become the first NBA team to advance to the second round of the playoffs when the teams play Game 4 of their best-of-seven series Sunday in Indianapolis. Boston held the Pacers to just 74 points in a 10-point Game 1 win, then outscored Indiana 31-12 in the fourth quarter of Game 2, for an eight-point win. The Pacers had SEVEN players in double digits at home in Game 3 but still weren't able to crack 100 points, losing 104-96.

Kyrie Irving finished Game 3 with 19 points, 10 assists, five rebounds and just two turnovers and is averaging 25.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 8.0 assists in the series. Jaylen Brown, who is starting at shooting guard with Marcus Smart (oblique) sidelined, scored 23 points while making 8-of-9 shots on Friday, including 4-of-5 from three-point range. As for Indiana, the Pacers fell victim to another bad quarter in Game 3, losing the third by a 21-12 margin. "The silver lining is that we've been in every single game," PG Darren Collison told reporters. "All it takes is one win. Definitely ain't going to be no quit in us. I know it sounds foolish outside looking in, being down 3-0, but in this locker room there's definitely not going to be no quit."

No team in NBA history has ever won a series after falling behind 3-0 and Indiana is basically reduced to playing for pride at this point. Defense was an issue down teh stretch for Indiana, which allowed 11 of its 13 opponents to score 102 or more points. In fact, Boston averaged 115.5 PPG in the two high-stakes meetings from Indiana in the final two weeks, 114-112 in Boston and later 117-97 at Indiana. Not sure whether the Pacers can earn their way into the win column but I believe we'll see the Pacers give a four-quarter offensive effort. Have three straight unders, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Ind/Bos Over at 7:05 ET.

The Boston Celtics finished the regular season going 5-5 SU but just 1-9 ATS over their final 10 regular season games. However, the Celtics were able to edge the Pacers for the 4th-seed in the East. The Pacers sure made it easier for Boston, as after winning their first road game after the All Star break., Indiana lost 10 straight road games (2-8 ATS), before winning at Detroit amd Atlanta to end the season. The two teams met Sunday at TD Garden in Game 1 of their first-round series, with the Pacers taking a 45-38 halftime lead. However, the Celtics outmuscled in the Pacers in the second half on their way to an 84-74 win (Boston outscored Indiana 26-8 in the third quarter).

Indiana shot just 33.3 percent from the floor (including 6-of-27 on threes) in Game 1 plus also went only 12-of-21 from the FT line. Just ONE starter scored in double digits, as the team's five starters combined for only 38 on 15-of-44 (34.1%) shooting from the floor. Also, the Indiana bench contributed to the team's poor offensive effort, with the usually reliable Domantas Sabonis (3-for-9), Tyreke Evans (3-for-11) and Doug McDermott (1-for-7) combining to shoot just 7-for-27 (25.9%). The Celtics had five players score in double digits, yet scored only 84 points, while shooting 36.4 percent, overall. Despite their lowest scoring game of the season, the Celtics prevailed 84-74 in Game 1 by dominating the second half and limiting the Pacers to 29 points.

The Pacers were just 2-of-19 from the floor in the third quarter and made only eight FGs in the entire second half, going 8-for-38 (21.1 percent). The 74-point total was 15 points lower than any previous game this season for the Pacers. The Celtics shot just 32 percent in the first half, before improving to 41 percent in the second half, in what was their lowest scoring game of the season.

So what to expect in Game 2? Is it possible that either team will shoot so poorly again? The Pacers shot 47.5% from the floor during the season (4th-best), including 37.4% on threes (5th-best). No way they shoot 33.3%, including 22.2% in Game 2. As for Boston, the Celtics shot 46.5% on the season, 10 percent better than in Game 1. These teams played in Boston down the stretch (March 29), with the Celtics winning 114-112. This game may not reach that level of scoring but I expect both teams to be in 100s and the current total is about a 'TD' lower than what it closed in Game 1 (210.5). This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My CBB 10* Game of the Month is on Tex Tech/Va Over at 9:20 ET.

Texas Tech (31-6)  meets Virginia (34-3) in the NCAA Tournament championship game Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, as each school looks to win its first-ever title.. Virginia has limited opponents to a national-best 55.5 PPG on 38.4 percent shooting (5th), while Texas Tech allows 58.8 PPG (3rd) on 36.8 percent shooting (1st). I could go into a detailed analysis of thsisgame but I prefer to make it "short and sweet!"

Virginia's 18 regular season ACC games finished with 120 points or more (opening total of this game was 119) in 12 of 18 contests. In UVa's seven postseason games (two ACC tourney games and five NCAA tourney ones), FIVE of the seven have exceeded 120 or more. As for Texas Tech, 17 of its 18 Big 12 games finished with 120 or more points. The Red Raiders were bounced in their first Big 12 tourney contest (79-74 by West Va) and in five NCAA games, the final has finished with 120 or more, three times.

I'm just going say "O-V-E-R" and let the chips fall where the may.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on Was/NYM Over at 1:10 ET.

It's likely the NL East could be a four-team race for the better part of the 2019 season. The Braves won the division last year and have opened 4-3 but the new-look Phillies are 5-1 and the Mets check in at 5-2. The Mets clearly believe they are the team to beat and look to bounce-back on Saturday against the 3-3 Nats, who spoiled the Mets' home opener Thursday. Stephen Strasburg struck out nine over 6.2 scoreless innings and combined with four relievers on a four-hitter as Washington earned a 4-0 victory. Both teams took Friday off and they cap the series with afternoon games Saturday and Sunday,

In a battle of lefties, Patrick Corbin (0-0, 3.00 ERA) takes on Steven Matz (0-0, 1.69 ERA). Corbin signed a six-year, $140 million contract with Washington in December, earning his big deal after a spectacular 2018 in which he struck out 246 batters in 200 innings while holding opponents to a .218 average. Corbin faced the Mets at home last Sunday in his Nationals debut and surrendered two runs and seven hits over six innings but did not factor in the decision, as the Nats avoided a home sweep with a 6-5 win.  Corbin does not have a good history vs the Mets , going 1-4 with a 5.05 ERA in nine starts (teams are 4-5). Matz surrendered a HR in the first inning at Miami on Monday but settled down and was charged with three runs (just one earned) on six hits in 5.1 innings (Mets would win, 7-3). Matz has made 10 career starts vs the Nats, going 1-5 with a 3.93 ERA.

Note that the opening total  in this contest was "7" and that the Nats are averaging 4.83 RPG and the Mets, 5.29 RPG. Add in that Corbin is 1-3 with a 5.20 ERA in five career starts in Citi Field against New York and that Washington's bullpen owns a 9.64 ERA on the season (it's a MLB-high!). What's more, while Matz owns a 3.93 ERA vs Washington over 10 career starts, SIX of those starts came in 2018 when he failed to earn a win, going 0-3 with a 5.88 ERA. Let's go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MLB Game of the Week is on Hou/TB Over at 6:10 ET.

Houston rode ace Justin Verlander to a 5-1 win in Thursday's opener but could not solve former teammate Charlie Morton who made his Tampa Bay debut on Friday. Morton struck out eight in five innings plus a pair of Houston errors led to three unearned runs off Gerrit Cole in a 4-2 Rays win.The four-game series continues tonight with Houston's Collin McHugh (6-2, 1.99 ERA in 2018) meets Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow (2-7, 4.27 ERA in 2018).

McHugh spent all of 2018 in the bullpen and appeared in 58 games, posting 94 strikeouts in 72 1/3 total innings. He actually earned Cy Young votes while going 19-7 with a 3.89 ERA in 2015 but last worked as a full-time starter in 2017, going 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts.Tampa Bay introduced the practice of use "openers" rather than starters last season and  will again count on its bullpen. The Rays saw four relievers combine for four scoreless innings in Friday's triumph, Glasnow worked exclusively out of the bullpen for the Pittsburgh Pirates last season but moved into the rotation after being dealt to the Rays at the trade deadline. He went 1-5 with a 4.20 ERA in 11 starts for Tampa Bay (Rays were 4-7), striking out 64 in 55 2/3 total innings.

McHugh is 0-4 in five career starts vs Tampa Bay (team is 0-5), while Glasnow is making his first career appearance against Houston. Glasnow made five home starts last season with Tampa Bay but is still looking for his first career win at Tropicana Field. The Astros were MLB's best road team in 2018, going 57-24 while averaging just over 5.1 RPG, while the Rays were 36-20 at home vs righties last year, averaging 4.9 RPG. Low total here for an AL game (all other AL games on Saturday are between 8 and 9) and I'll go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Hou/TB Over at 7:10 ET.

The Houston Astros hit three HRs off reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and totaled 10 hits in Thursday's season-opening 5-1 victory over the Rays. They now hope to match that offensive effort when they face old friend Charlie Morton on Friday in the second contest of their four-game series at Tropicana Field. As for the Rays, they managed just four hits, with two of them coming from the game's first two batters (one being a HR by Austin Meadows).

Gerrit Cole (15-5, 2.88 ERA in 2018) goes for the Astros and Charlie Morton (15-3, 3.13 ERA in 2018) goes for the Rays. Cole produced his best ERA since 2015 with Pittsburgh and the top winning percentage of his career last season, finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting. He went 0-1 with a 3.46 ERA in his first two career games against the Rays last year (Houston was 1-1). Morton arrives in Tampa Bay after registering his best two seasons in the majors with Houston, going 29-10 with a 3.36 ERA in 55 starts. Before joining the team in 2017, Moron was 3-5 with a 5.96 ERA against the Astros in nine career starts (teams were 4-5).

Here's why I'm going 'Over" in this one. The Astros were MLB's best road team in 2018, going 57-24 while averaging just over 5.1 RPG. I don't believe Morton will fare well against his teammates of the last two years and he's 0-3 with a 4.34 ERA in three career outings at Tropicana Field. .Houston just may reach this total by themselves. As for Tampa Bay, expect a bounce-back effort from its offense (even against Cole). After all, the Rays were 36-20 at home vs righties last year, averaging 4.9 RPG. This one is Goin' Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NCAA Tourney Total of the Year is on FSU/Gonzaga Over at 7:29 ET.

29-7 Florida State has won EIGHT of its last nine games, including a 90-62 rout of Murray State and Ja Morant in the Round of 32 Saturday. The team's only loss in that stretch came in the ACC tournament final against Duke (note: the Seminoles also lost to the Blue Devils 80-78 on a Cam Reddish 3-pointer with 0.8 seconds to go during the regular season on). Awaiting the Seminoles in the West Region's Sweet 16 is No. 1 seed Gonzaga, The Bulldogs routed Fairleigh Dickinson 87-49 and then took out No.9 seed Baylor 83-71. Gonzaga is making its FIFTH consecutive Sweet 16 appearance, the longest streak in the nation, one which includes a run to the 2017 national title game.Gonzaga will surely remember Florida State, as the Seminoles ended Gonzaga's 2018 season (as well as a 16-game winning streak) with a 75-60 upset in the Sweet 16 in Los Angeles during their surprising run to the Elite Eight last March.

The Seminoles will again be without senior forward Phil Cofer (7.4), who besides battling a foot injury also lost his father, former NFL linebacker Mike Cofer, to a lengthy illness just before the win over the Racers. "I think that's why you saw our guys so focused," head coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. "I think the night was in response to the respect we had for Murray State, but also the respect we had for Mr. Cofer." The 6-11 Mfiondu Kabengele(13.4 & 5.9) is FSU's leading scorer and comes off the bench (he's the ACC's Sixth Man of the Year). He scored a game-high 21 points in teh first round and then had 22 points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the win over Murray State. 

Senior guard Terance Mann (11.6 & 6.5) is joined by PG Forrest (9.0-4.4- 3.7) and  Walker (7.5) to give FSU a solid guard trio. Cofer (7.4 & 3.5) will be missed but the 6-8 Gray (4.0 & 2.2) added 11 points agauinst Murray St. The 7-4 Koumadji (6.6 & 5.6 in just 15 MPG) can also not be overlooked.

Gonzaga is loaded. The Zags have three likely first-round NBA picks up front including 6-8 junior forwards, Rui Hachimura (19.7 & 6.6), the West Coast Conference Player of the Year, and Brandon Clarke (17.0 & 8.4), the WCC Defensive Player of the Year, Both are likely lottery picks in June. Then there is Killian Tillie, a 6-10 junior forward who missed last year's loss to Florida State but will play this time around despite missing a good chunk of the season with ankle and foot injuries. He is averaging 6.7 & 4.1, while shooting 42.9 percent from three-point range off the bench. In the backcourt it's Zach Norvell Jr. (15.1 & 4.3) and PG Josh Perkins (10.8 & 6.3 APG). Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring offense (88.6), field goal percentage (53.2), scoring margin (23.8) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.76). Other than that, the Zags don't have match.

The knee jerk reaction is to say "revenge" but FSU enters this contest having won 16 of its last 18, with the lone losses coming to No. 1 seeds Duke and North Carolina.Throw in the fact that FSU is a perfect 6-0 ATS as an underdog in the Big Dance since 2009, so "laying it" could be dangerous to one's bankroll. That said, Mark Few WILL have his team ready for this game and this 'scoring machine' will get its share of points. As for FSU, this year's edition has also shown it can put points on the scoreboard, having averaged 75.4 PPG on the season, including 83.0 PPG in its first two NCAA games this year. This one's Goin' Over,

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* NBA Total of the Week is on Det/Pho Over at 10:05 ET.

The 36-34 Detroit Pistons are trying to secure the No. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference but they opened a five-game road trip with an 'ugly' 126-119 loss at the lowly Cleveland Cavs. The Pistons continue their road trip tonight in Phoenix, where they will take on the 17-55 Suns (Phoenix owns the West's worst record by 11 1/2 games). The Suns are heading for the draft lottery but had been playing better of late (6-4 run), before dropping a 116-101 decision at home to the Chicago Bulls on Monday.

Detroit was coming off a home win over the Toronto Raptors when it suffered the letdown against the Cavaliers plus All-Star forward Blake Griffin (24.7-6.6-5.4) was given  the night off to rest on Monday but he will be back against Phoenix. Detroit's defense was porous in Cleveland, as the Cavs shot 58.2 percent from the floor, as the Pistons matched a season high in regulation points allowed.

Phoenix had won six of 10, capped by a 138-136 overtime triumph in New Orleans on Saturday, before opening a two-game homestand with a dud against the Bulls.It wasn't good news that SF Kelly Oubre Jr. (16.9 & 4.9 in his 40 games with the Suns) sat out Monday with a thumb injury and is listed as day-to-day. However, Booker (25.6-4.2-6.8) and Auton (16.4 & 10.3) will be on hand, for sure.

Detroit enters this game just a half-game up on Brooklyn and 1 1/2 games up on Miami in a three-way battle for the 6, 7 & 8 seeds in the East. The Pistons will face West contenders Portland, Golden State and Denver in the final three stops of the trip, so to say the least, Detroit really needs a win at Phoenix. Expect Detroit to score here vs a Phoenix team allowing 118.7 PPG over its last six, as well 116.1 PPG on the season (27th) on 48.2% shooting (29th). Detroit scored 110 points or more in 12 of 14 games, before being held to 75 and 74 points in back-to-back games (Mar 11 & 13). However, Detroit enters this game having scored 111, 110 and 119 points in its last three. This contest has O-V-E-R written all over it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the under Devils/Oilers (9:35 EST).

New Jersey comes in off a 6-4 loss in Calgary just last night and I think it’s going to have a hell of a time here finding the same sort of energy levels in the second game of the back to back at this point of the season.

Edmonton has been playing much better over the last month having won seven of its last ten. That includes a 3-2 OT win over the Rangers last time out. The Oilers play with revenge here after a 5-2 defeat in New Jersey at the start of the season, but the situation each team finds itself coming into this one, points to more of a lower-scoring defensive battle in my opinion.

The Oilers will look to dictate the pace of this one and in the end, I believe that everything does indeed point to the “under” as the correct call tonight.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the under Knights/Flames (8:35 EST).

These teams played last week in Vegas and the Knights scored the 2-1 lower-scoring victory.

The Flames have been scuffling of late and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle and to avenge that setback. 

The Knights though laid everything on the line in last night’s 6-2 in Vancouver and I think they’ll come in predictably tired here in the second game of the back to back.

Not only do these two Pacific division teams have a recent history of playing to tight, lower-scoring affairs, but note that LV has seen the total go under the number in 16 of its last 20 vs. teams with winning records, while Calgary has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of five already this year after three or more consecutive losses. 

Everything once again points to a low-scoring battle. Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the over Nuggets/Warriors (10:35 EST).

These are two of the best teams in the West and in the entire league. Totals are always set high no matter who their opponents are, but neither has played to many high-scoring affairs of late.

Both have been scuffling as well. Denver had lost three straight to Utah, New Orleans and San Antonio before then beating the Lakers, while the defending champs have lost five of their last eight, including a home blowout loss to the Celtics on Tuesday.

Denver got 17 rebounds from Nikola Jokic and 23 points, four boards and five assist from Will Barton in the victory over the Lakers.

Golden State got embarrassed last time out and I think it’ll be out to send a message here. I look for the Warriors to play with a “playoff like intensity” vs. this dangerous visiting side.

So from an overall situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a “shootout” over a slower paced defensive battle.

Additionally note that Denver has seen the total go over in both games it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent of ten or more points, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of five this year after a blowout loss by 15 points or more.

This number is low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* LEGEND is on the “under” Bulls/Pacers (7:05 EST).

These teams have been playing to some high-scoring affairs of late, but I think that this one finally sets up as more of a defensive contest.

The Bulls actually have the No. 1 offense in the league over the last ten games, averaging 120.8 points. Chicago was ravaged by injury before the season even started, but as the teams has gotten healthier, it’s started to show signs of promise for the future.

Chicago played a home and home set with Atlanta and both games flew “over” the number. The first game was an epic triple OT classic win for the Bulls, before the Hawks then reciprocated in Chicago. 

The Bulls play with “triple revenge” here after dropping all three previous meetings with the Pacers.

Indiana comes in desperate to break its current form of futility. The Pacers have lost three of their last four games as they could finally be feeling the absence of star Victor Oladipo in the line-up.

The last thing Indiana will want to do is to turn this into a “track meet” with the young and hungry Bulls though.

So with the home side looking to control the pace of this one, I’m absolutely expecting a lower-scoring defensive battle once it’s all said and done.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NHL TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Oilers/Sabres (7:05 EST).

Edmonton enters off a rare 4-0 road win over Columbus, while Buffalo is looking to bounce back after a 5-2 loss at Toronto. 

After losing 11 of its previous 12, Edmonton has now won four of its last six. The Oilers though are a poor 14-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.59 goals and conceding 3.29 in those contests.

Buffalo is 19-13 at home, averaging 3.13 goals and allowing 3.03, but note that the Sabres have seen the total go “under” the number in seven of their last nine after allowing five or more goals in a two goal or more loss in their previous outing. 

I think these two inconsistent non-conference bottom feeders play to more of a lower-scoring battle than a wide-open shootout.

Play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* TOTAL is on the under Lakers/Suns (9:05 EST).

Both teams comes in off losses. Both teams were let down horribly by their defenses.

Phoenix lost 130-116 at home to New Orleans, while the Lakers’ tumble down the proverbial crapper continued with a lacklustre 131-120 setback at home to the Bucks. 

The Suns are out of the playoff picture, but if LeBron James has any hopes of reaching the post-season in his first year with the Lakers, he’s going to need to start his new big win streak starting immediately.

James had 31 points in the loss to the Bucks on Friday, but the super star is clearly struggling since his groin injury a couple of weeks ago. Since the entire “Anthony Davis fiasco” went down, LA has struggled overall. 

From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up as more of a defensive affair. Or at least I expect a lot of half court sets while on offense from each of these tired sides.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* (BIG 12) CONF. TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Baylor/K-State (8:00 EST).

Two teams which normally focus on the defensive end of the floor collide on Saturday night, but I think this total will sneak above this lower number once it’s all said and done.

Baylor enters on top form having won three straight, including a thrilling 84-83 win over Texas last time out. Mario Kegler led the way with 24 points and seven boars, while Devnonte Bandoo added 18 points. Overall Baylor averages 72.6 PPG. 

The Wildcats are looking to bounce back after a rough 64-49 loss to Kansas in their last outing. Kamu Stoked was a bright spot in a losing cause with 12 points and four assists. Overall the Wildcats average 65.9 PPG.

K-State allows just 59.5 PPG, which is ranked fourth in the country, but I think the home side is going to be out to push the pace from start to finish in this one after such a lack lustre effort in its most recent beat down loss. 

This one sets up great from a situational stand point in my opinion, as I’m expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Devils/Bruins (7:05 EST).

The Bruins are 9-0-1 over their last ten games and they’re coming off a big home victory over Tampa to move into second place in the East (I had Boston in that one as my Feb. GAME OF THE MONTH.) 

The Devils come to town off a poor 6-3 loss at home to Philadelphia. The Devils will be going with Corey Schneider in net for this one and he’s been decent since returning from injury, going 4-3-1 with a 2.11 GAA in eight games. 

The home side will counter with Tuukka Rask, who is 21-8-5 overall with a 2.36 GAA. 

I have a hard time seeing New Jersey putting up much of a fight here. And there’s no need for Boston to put up much of a fight here. This number is a little high, play the “under.” 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on the over (6:30 EST).

Two teams which revolve around their offensive units collide in the Super Bowl this year. Each team’s defense was decent this season, but clearly each side will be expecting the offense to carry the load and win the day in the end.

So with that in mind, I’m definitely expecting a more wide-open affair in Atlanta this Sunday.

Tom Brady may never get another shot at winning a record breaking sixth Super Bowl, so it’s essentially now or never for the living legend. 

The Rams played very little defense this year, but instead relied on their dynamic offense as well, centred around QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley. 

Brady has less weapons surrounding him perhaps than ever before, but it still didn’t stop him from beating the Chiefs 37-31 on the road last Sunday (and for a second time this season.)

Pats’ RB Sony Michel was a bright spot as well in the victory with 113 yards on 29 carries. In fact five different Patriots caught at least four passes, with Julian Edelman leading the way with seven receptions for 80 yards.

The Rams could obviously care less about Brady’s legacy. They didn’t care too much about veteran Drew Brees’ legacy last weekend after their controversial 26-23 OT win over the Saints.

LA had been torched for 45 points by the Saints in the first meeting between the teams (a Rams loss), and while the defense looked better last week, I still think they’ll have their hands full with Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels.

Are ATS stats relevant at this point of the season and in this situation? 

Perhaps not, but I still think it’s interesting to note that NE has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last eight playoff games, while St. Louis has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last six when playing with two or more weeks of rest.

As stated off the top, I’m expecting a wide open affair. Play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Championship Game Sunday O/U Play is on NE/KC Under at 6:40 ET.

A storm front is moving through Kansas City and it’s been reported that this could be the coldest game in Chiefs history. Since the news of the storm, this total has been steadily dropping. Regardless, for a number of different reasons I think the correct call will be on the “under” when it comes to the total, as I look for each to try and establish the run from start to finish while on offense.

The Chiefs’ much maligned defense looked fantastic in last week’s 31-13 victory over the Indianapolis Colts. The Chiefs front-seven limited the Colt to just 87 yards rushing and the Colts to only 263 total yards. The red-hot Andrew Luck had only 203 yards passing and Indy's lone offensive TD came with 5 1/2-minutes left in the game. KC's low-ranked pass defense (31st of 32 teams) has also displayed noticeable growth in the last two games, thanks to the fast-maturing duo of DB duo of Chavarius Ward (acquired in a preseason trade with the Cowboys) and rookie Jordan Lucas (picked up from Miami Dolphins). QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw a TD pass for only the second time this season (he had 50 during the regular season) but Kansas City held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in the win over the Colts, as RB Damien Williams rushed for 129 yards and a score on 25 carries (who needs Hunt?).

New England is in its 8th straight AFC Title game following its dominating 41-28 home victory over the L.A. Chargers in the Divisional Round. Patriots scored TDs on their first 4 possessions with Tom Brady in top form. The Pats beat the Chiefs 43-40 at home in a Week 6 SNF contest but I believe the last thing that Brady and Bill Belichick will want to do in this one is turn it into a “shootout.” The overall conditions of this one point to more of a “chess match.” The New England attack wasn’t so special away from home this year, with the Pats going just 3-5 SU, averaging only 3.9 YPC on the ground, while scoring just four rushing TDs. Three of the team's five road losses came by double digits

This "Under" play is about more than just the weather. I’ll point out as well that New England has seen the total go under the number in 17 of its last 24 on the road, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 19 of its last 27 as a home favorite.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Mem/Hou Over at 8:05 ET.

Houston's James Harden extended his streak of 30-point games to 16 with 38 points on Sunday, tying Kobe Bryant for the most consecutive 30-point games since Wilt Chamberlain in 1964. However, he missed 16 of 17 three-pointers, as the Rockets blew a 12-point lead against the 19-24 Magic in a 116-109 setback. The 24-18 Rockets suffered their first defeat against a losing team since Dec 20,. Houston returns home tonight to face the 19-23 Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies are in the midst of a challenging stretch that will see them follow up the trip to Houston with a home game against Milwaukee and then visits to Boston and Toronto. Memphis snapped a six-game slide with an impressive 96-86 win over San Antonio on Wednesday but then lost112-108 at Miami on Saturday.

The Grizzlies continued their downward spiral on Saturday, blowing a 12-point, first-half lead in falling by four points at Miami. Memphis was coming off a season in which it went 22-60 but fashioned a surprising 12-5 start to the current one. However, that is now a distant memory, as Memphis has dropped 18 of 25 games since occupying first place in the Western Conference on Thanksgiving. The Grizzlies have posted a minus-8.6 net rating while losing seven of eight, a mark that would rank 28th in the NBA if extrapolated over this current season. PG Conley (20.2 & 6.2 APG) and center Gasol (15.7 & 8.6) continue to lead the way, while 6-11 rookie Jackson (13.4 & 4.6) has proven to be a solid draft pick. The 28-year-old JaMychal Green led the way in Saturday's loss with 24 points and 11 rebounds in only 22 minutes off the bench, his third double-digit effort on the boards in a span of four games. His role may increase after starting forward Kyle Anderson was lost to a sprained ankle. Green (10.7 & 6.8) is averaging 15 points and six rebounds in 22.5 minutes in two games against the Rockets this season, shooting 76.9 percent overall.

Houston had excelled during a grueling 15-game stretch, going 12-3 from Dec 11 thru Jan 9 against mostly quality foes. The Rockets were seeking to avoid a letdown during a four-game respite against struggling opposition. Houston had no trouble in beating the Cavs 141-113 but they then fell apart down the stretch vs the Magic (Orlando closed on a 20-6 run). Now its' Memphis and 21-23 Brooklyn, next.Harden checks in at 34.2-6.2-8.8 and center Clint Capela at 17.6 & 12.6 (he's averaging 21.2 points and 13 rebounds in Jan).  this month. Austin Rivers (13.4) scored a season-high 25 points on 10-of-14 shooting Sunday, making his seventh straight start while fellow guards Chris Paul and Eric Gordon are sidelined. Veteran Gerald Green (8.7) is averaging 13.8 PPG in the seven games that Gordon has missed.

My first thought was to play Houston, as the Rockets are 11-1 SU at home since a Nov 28 loss to Dallas (lone defeat was against the 30-12 Bucks). However, this low over/under number has me playing the total. A "typical" Houston home game has averaged 225.8 PPG and during the Rockets' current 11-1 home run, Houston has averaged a whopping 119.3 points! Sure, Memphis ranks first in points allowed (102.7 per) and just 29th in scoring (101.0 per) but the last time the Grizzlies visited Houston, the Rockets won 113-101 (that would work here!). This total opened 203 and while it has jumped a few points, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My NBA 10* Total of the Week is on Hou/Por Over at 10:05 ET.

Portland fell 111-109 at home to the Thunder just last night and if it looks to avoid back-to-back losses, it’s going to have to have a “short memory” here facing the red hot Rockets, who come to the Pacific Northwest on a six-game win skein and with 11 wins in their last 12 outings, including a 135-134 overtime thriller at Golden State on Wednesday Houston rallied from a 20-point deficit in the third quarter to beat the Warriors.

.Houston is still without Chris Paul, but the team is now finally firing on all cylinders after a slow start to the season. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 33.6 points and is riding a streak of five consecutive 40-point games, matching a feat accomplished only by Michael Jordan, Allen Iverson and Kobe Bryant in the past 50 years. Center Clint Capela is having a career season, averaging 17.2 points and 12.7 boards.

The Blazers have been scuffling of late, going just 4-5 in their last nine after last night’s setback. The guard duo of Damian Lillard (26.6-4.6-5.8) and  CJ McColum (21.1) lead the way, while Nurkic (14.9 & 10.4) continues to prove he's a quality NBA center.

From a “situational” stand point, I think it sets up as a higher-scoring affair. Clearly the Rockets will be out to push the pace as they try to take advantage of a tired Blazers team. Portland figures to have to match Houston's pace, which point to a “shootout." This number is a little low, play the “over.”

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Playoff Total Of The Year is on the over Hawks/Cowboys (8:15 EST).

Two hungry and talented teams collide on Saturday night and I think that points will be plentiful.

Seattle closed its regular season with a 27-24 win over Arizona at home on Sunday, while the Cowboys rallied for a 36-35 win on the road over New York. Seattle beat the Cowboys in a lower-scoring 24-13 victory at home back on September 23rd, but I think it’ll be the offenses which dominate the headlines in tomorrow’s summaries this time around.

Seattle enters the postseason on top form, having won six of its last seven. Overall the Hawks saw the Over/Under go 9-7 this year.

Seattle averages 26.8 PPG and it allows 21.7. QB Russell Wilson has 3,448 passing yards and a sharp 35/7 TD/INT. RB Chris Carson has 1,151 rushing yards and nine scores. The Hawks are the No. 1 rushing offense, which gives Wilson a lot to work with obviously.

Dallas averages 21.2 PPG and it allows 20.3. After a slow start, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot and the rest of the offense have looked a lot better over the last onto. Prescott had 3,885 passing yards and a 22/8 TD/INT, while Elliot has 1,434 rushing yards and six TDs. 

I’ll point out as well that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 following a home victory, while Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five home games when the total is set between 40.5 and 45 points.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* Goin' Over Total is on Mich St/Oregon Over at 3:00 ET.

The Big Ten's Michigan State Spartans (7-5) travel west to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca (home of the 49ers) to take on the Pac-12's Oregon Ducks (8-4). Michigan St entered the 2018 season off a 10-3 year, one which ended in a 42-17 win over Washington St in the Holiday Bowl. It was MSU's sixth 10-win season (or better) in the previous eight years. The Spartans were hopeful of contending for the Big Ten title but a 1-2 start in league play, ended that thought before the end of October.  Injuries slowed them for much of the season, especially on offense. Oregon opened 5-1 with its lone loss coming in OT vs Stanford (the Ducks led the Cardinal 24-7 at the half, then blew a 10-point lead in the final three minurtes of regulation). Oregon was ranked 12th when it lost to Washington St, a defeat which began a stretch of THREE losses in four games from Oct 20  through Nov 10.

MSU's LJ Scott played in only four contests because of injury and had planned on redshirting this season but the team's leading rusher from a season ago with 898 yards, has decided to go pro, so he's returning for the bowl game. He and sophomore RB Connor Heyward will share carries. Junior QB Brian Lewerke (1,868 yards, eight TDs) has his starting job back, after being hampered by a shoulder injury for the second half of the season. Mich St always plays excellent defense and this year is no different, as the Spartans are allowing 18.0 PPG (12th) on 311.5 YPG (14th). However, the offense was held to just 26 points in its last three contests, ending the regular season with an average of 19.8 PPG (123rd) on 343.0 YPG (117th).

Oregon QB Justin Herbert went out of the Ducks' regular-season finale in the first quarter with a shoulder injury but he's probable for this game. He's had an excellent season, passing for 2,985 yards with 28 TDs and just eight INTs. In Oregon's Civil War game with Oregon St, head coach Mario Cristobal turned to his young running game, and it didn't let him down. Freshmen CJ Verdell and Travis Dye combined for 386 rushing yards and six TDs in the 55-15 rout. Oregon comes in averaging 37.2 PPG (18th) on 447.5 YPG (29th).

I believe both teams are better than their records indicate and while the MSU defense is terrific, Oregon scored 30-plus points in NINE of its 12 games.Yes, MSU's offense has been awful all season but remember with a healthy Lewerke and Scott in last year's Holiday Bowl against the Pac-12's Washington St, the Spartans scored 42 points while gaining 440 yards. Oregon's defense allows 27.0 PPG (63rd) and I expect MSU to match or exceed that number here.I also see Oregon reaching 30 points (that would be a TD under its average), so I see this game Goin' Over and ending a seven-game 'Under' run by Mich St.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* O/U is on the under 49ers/Rams (4:25 EST).

The 4-11 San Francisco 49ers are the 12-3 Rams on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points will be at a premium in this one.

San Fran has nothing to play for here other than spoiler. The Rams have looked a bit shaky lately, but they don’t need to run this score up to win this contest. Instead all LA has to do is to control the tempo and set the tone. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting to see happen. 

San Fran has lost four of its last six and all seven on the road this year. Third string QB Nick Mullens has 1,995 passing yards and a 10/7 TD/INT. 

The 49ers ground game has been decent, averaging 118.3 YPG, led by Matt Breida with 814 yards and three TDs. Overall the 49ers allow 25.8 PPG.

The Rams have won seven of ten and with a victory today they’ll lock up the second seed in the NFC. LA has won five of six at home. Jared Goff has 4,489 passing yards and a 28/12 TD/INT. 

The Rams have been decent defensively though, allowing just 23..5 PPG. 

I’ll point out as well that San Fran has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven following a two-game home stand, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Bowl Total of the Year is on TCU/Cal Over at 9:00 ET.

Justin Wilcox was introduced as the 34th head coach of the California Golden Bears back on January 14, 2017. The Bears went 5–7 during Wilcox's first year in 2017 but did earn wins over North Carolina, Ole Miss, and an 8th-ranked Washington State team. The Bears also had three losses by three points or less. Cal opened 3-3 in 2018 but won FOUR of six down the stretch to finish 7-5. Included among those four wins were a 12-10 win over then-No. 15 Washington plus a 15-14 win over USC at the Coliseum in Los Angeles that snapped a 14-year losing streak to the Trojans. I say kudos to Wilcox for righting the ship in Berkeley and leading the Bears back to the bowl scene.

Youthful TCU returned just 11 starters from a team that went 10-2 in the 2017 regular season, earning a spot in the Big 12 title game. However, the Horned Frogs opened 4-6 (2-8 ATS), before they showed some grit with closing wins of 16-9 at Baylor and 31-24 at home over Okla St to gain bowl eligibility. In the end, head coach Gary Patterson just wouldn’t let team quit. Patterson's first full season at TCU came back in 2001 and through last year, his teams had 10 seasons of 10-plus wins (including the 13-0 team of 2010, which ended No. 2 in the final AP poll).

California ranked 16th in the country in total D (319.4 YPG) and 24th in points allowed (21.2 per). However, while the Bears returned 10 offensive starters, the team averaged only 22.8 PPG (109th) on 350.2 YPG (112th). The Bears shuffled through QBs but Wilcox ultimately settled on RS freshman Chase Garbers. He completed 61% of his passes for 1413 yards, with 14 TDs and 7 INTs. However, he didn’t top 200 yards passing in any of his last five games!

TCU has been know for its defense under Patterson and the Horned Frogs have allowed 24.4 PPG (45th) on 344.4 YPG (27th). In fact, six TCU defenders were named to the all-Big-12 team. Like Wilcox, Patterson had to do some QB shuffling of his own during the season. A shoulder injury shelved soph Shawn Robinson for the season and soph backup Michael Collins missed time with a foot injury, exiting the Baylor game early.  Robinson has reportedly decided to transfer. Grayson Muehlstein, a 5th-year senior, completed 27 of 40 passes for 327 yards and three TDs in leading the Frogs to wins in the last two games. He'll start here.

The knee-jerk call here would be "Under," but not so fast. These are too very good defensive units but this over/under is the LOWEST of the entire bowl season. The "average" Cal game this season finished at 43.0 PPG, while the average TCU game checked in at 49.1 PPG (there's an edge, right there!). It's obvious that TCU's Patterson has a HUGE  edge in bowl preparation experience over Wilcox, as while this is Wilcox's first-ever bowl game, Patterson is coaching in his 17th (first in 2000, came as interim TCU head coach). 

Plenty of motivation on the Cal side, as the Bears can win eight games for only the second time since 2010 with a victory over the Horned Frogs. However, TCU needs to beat Cal to avoid its second 6-7 finish in the past three seasons. TCU head coach Gary Patterson is 6-0 against Pac-12 foes and the play here is OVER this VERY low number.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on the under Bengals/Browns (1:00 EST).

The 6-8 Cincinnati Bengals head to Cleveland to take on the 6-7-1 Browns on Sunday and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it.

The Bengals won their last game, but they’ve lost four of their last five on the road. Starting QB Andy Dalton is out and backup Jeff Driskel is in. So far he has 775 yards passing a 4/2 TD/INT. The ground game has been a weak point on offense as well, averaging 103.9 YPG. 

But the weakest weak point for the Bengals has been on the defensive side, allowing 29.5 PPG. The unit catches a break though facing Cleveland’s inconsistent offense.

The Browns have won four of their last five and still have a slim playoff chance. QB Baker Mayfield has 3,065 yards passing and a weak 21/11 TD/INT. The ground game has been decent in averaging 121.1 YPG. The defense has been hit or miss, allowing 24.9 PPG. Myles Garrett has been a standout with 12.5 sacks.

I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of its last 22 at home.

This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control is paramount in the victory. This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on the SA/Hou Under at 8:05 EST.

The 18-15 Spurs are in Houston tonight to take on the 16-15 Rockets. The SA Spurs entered last night's home game with the T-wolves having won  six of their last seven games without needing their front-line players late in those contests. San Antonio's last four wins had all been by 25 or more points. Make that SEVEN of eight wins, with FIVE in a row coming by 25 points or more, as San Antonio blasted Minnesota, 124-98! San Antonio coasted again on Friday, getting just 22 total points from top scorers DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, who entered with a combined average of 42.2 PPG.

The Rockets last played on Thursday, when the team's five-game winning streak was snapped by the Heat, who won 101-99. More bad news came Houston's way as star PG Chris Paul strained his left hamstring in the loss at Miami. He is expected to miss at least two weeks. "It's definitely tough, because he's a big-time playmaker and ball handler for us," guard Eric Gordon told reporters. "In this offense you need all of the playmaking that you can have, and usually me, Chris, and James [Harden] have the ball in our hands trying to play-make for other people and provide good scoring." 

The Spurs are playing on back-to-back nights and have gone 0-5 in the last half of those recent back-to-backs. Also note that Houston is 0 -5 this season without Paul. This situation hardly seems to favor a high-scoring game. In fact, Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 10 of its last 14 after playing a road game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total Of The Year is on the over Cards/Falcons (1:00 EST).

Two proud teams collide with nothing but pride to play for. Neither side can be happy with the way its season has unfolded to this point, but with the pressure off and with both trying to gain something positive to build off to end the season, I’m expecting more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a lower-scoring “chess match.”

Arizona has lost six of eight. QB Josh Rosen has 1,910 passing yards and a 10/12 TD/INT. The ground game has been the weak point to this point, averaging only 85 YPG. The defense though has also been a shell of its former self and the Falcons’ high-flying and under-achieving offense will definitely have its opportunities in facing a Cards’ unit which is allowing 25.2 PPG.

The Falcons have lost five straight and they’ll be given the green light today to open up the playbook. QB Matt Ryan has been a bright spot, going for 4,076 yards along with a  28/6 TD/INT. Ryan now has two or more TD passes in five of his last eight games. 

I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 21 on the road and in nine of its last 14 as a road underdog, while Atlanta has seen the total go over in 15 of its last 21 as a home favorite and in three of its last four following a loss by 14 points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Blazers/Rockets (8:05 EST).

Portland comes in off a 113-105 home win over Minnesota, while Houston enters off a 107-104 road loss in Dallas. Houston is looking to break out of its early season slump and to avenge a 104-85 setback to the Blazers on October 30th. 

I’m expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later.

Portland’s won two straight. Overall the Blazers average 112.3 PPG and concede 110.4. Damian Lillard leads the nightly charge with 27.2 points and 6.4 assists per night. 

Houston averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 109.7. James Harden leads the team with 30 points, 5.5 boards and 8.3 assists per game. 

I’ll point out as well that Portland’s already seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this season, while Houston has seen the total fly over in its last three following a loss by 14 points or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 9* O/U play is the under Ravens/Chiefs (1:00 EST).

Baltimore comes in off a 26-16 road win over Atlanta last weekend, while the Chiefs posted a 40-33 win over the Raiders. If Kansas City is going to move ahead in the playoffs, it’s going to have to learn how to play defense at some point.

The Ravens won’t be looking to turn this one into a shootout. Instead the visitors will be hoping to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense off the field as play whenever possible.

And that means clock control while on offense themselves. Baltimore rookie RB Lamar Jackson has started three straight games and led his team to victory in each. He only has 540 passing yards with a weak 2/3 TD/INT, but he’s also posted a thrilling 404 rushing yards.

Overall the Ravens are averaging 24.8 PPG and allowing an NFL best 17.8.

The Chiefs are averaging 37 PPG and conceding 27.2. Mahomes has a stellar 41/10 TD/INT thus far.

I’ll point out as well that Baltimore has seen the total go under the under in four of six on the road already this year, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 23 as a home favorite.

This number is a little high, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TV Total Mismatch is the over Philly/Detroit (7:05 EST).

Philly had its five-game win streak snapped in a tough 113-102 road loss in Toronto on Friday, while Detroit enters off a poor 115-92 road loss in Milwaukee.

Both teams will be eager to return to form and as such, I’m expecting a wide-open run and gun shootout rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle.

Detroit will be extra motivated here as well after back-to-back poor showings and to also avenge a 109-99 loss to the 76ers on November 3rd.

Philly averages 113.7 PPG and it concedes 111.8. Big man Joel Embiid leads the way with 26.3 points, 13.3 boards and 1.96 blocks per game.

Detroit averages 109.4 PPG and it concedes 109.5. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 24.9 points, 9.1 boards and five assists per night.

I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go over in 10 of its last 14 after playing to three or more straight “unders,” while Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in both games that it’s played in this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.

For all the reasons listed above, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* play on the over Jaguars/Titans (8:20 EST).

The Jags come in off a 6-0 win at home over the Colts, while the Titans saved their season with a late 26-22 home win over the Jets. 

Tennessee took the first game this year 9-6, but I’m finally expecting more of a wide open shootout on the short week between these two desperate teams. 

The Jags defense stepped up with their best performance of the season last week, but consistency on the road and from game to game has been Jacksonville’s biggest problem this year. 

The Titans had to rally from a 16-0 first half deficit last week and I fully expect Tennessee to keep that momentum rolling here. 

And from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one sets up as a higher-scoring shootout, as note that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in its last three in revenging an upset loss against an opponent as a favorite, while Tennessee has seen the total go over in seven of its last nine as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

This number is a little low, play the over.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Skins/Eagles (8:15 EST).

To say this is a big game would be an understatement. It’s a “must win” game for both teams. A victory assures nothing, other than “being in the playoff picture” for another week, while a loss “seals the deal” on a disappointing season.

With so much on the line, I’m absolutely expecting more of a “chess match,” where field position and ball control becomes paramount in the end. 

Both teams have struggled with offensive consistency. The Redskins are down to the backup QB in Colt McCoy after losing Alex Smith to injury for the year. McCoy was unspectacular in the Thanksgiving day loss to the Texans, going for 268 yards, two TDs and two INTs. Clearly Washington won’t be asking McCoy to do too much more than just manage the game today, as the visitors establish the run game and hope that their defense and special teams come up big.

The Eagles needed a late rally to salvage their season last week, pulling away for a 25-22 win over the Giants. Carson Wentz was an efficient 20 of 28 for 236 yards and a TD. RB Josh Adams was big with 84 yards on 22 carries.

But like the Redskins, the Eagles are going to be relying on their defense to come up big today and to dictate the pace of this one.

Note that Washington has seen the total go under the number in its last four road games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of six home games already this season.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* West-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under LA/NO (8:05 EST).

What’s the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams? For me it’s “run and gun” offense and very little defense.

These are indeed two of the higher-scoring teams in the league, but each comes in off an exhausting game just last night. While these clubs normally play to “shootouts,” I think the overall conditions finally point to a lower-scoring defensive battle.

LA plays with revenge here after falling 116-109 in the first meeting between the teams this year.

The Clippers come in dejected off a 114-110 loss in Dallas on Monday, while the Pelicans return home contented after a 119-109 road win in Charlotte.

After winning nine of their last ten, I think a predictable letdown is in store for the over-achieving Clippers in the second game of the back to back. 

New Orleans has been “hit or miss” all year as well, going just 5-6 in its last 11 overall, so a letdown after last night’s big win isn’t too difficult to imagine either.

Additionally note that LA has seen the total go under the under in five of seven already this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent which scored 110 points or more in, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten as a favorite.

For all the reasons listed above, play the under.

Good luck…Larry