My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively.

My 10* Total of the Week is on Arz/SF Over at 4:05 ET.

San Francisco entered last Monday night's game as the NFL's lone unbeaten but fell 27-24 (OT) in one of 2019's most exciting games. The 49ers look to rebound from that loss when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The two NFC West rivals will be meeting for teh second time in three weeks, as the 49ers won 28-25 at Phoenix in a Week 9 Thursday game on Halloween. It may come as a surprise to many that Arizona had beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times,prior to taht contest.

Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ saw his team open 0-3-1 in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7. However, to be fair, those three wins came over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 4-24). The Cards have followed their three-game winning streak by losing 31-9 at New Orleans, 28-25 at home to San Francisco and 30-27 at New Orleans. Kyler Murray (last year's No. 1 pick) has lived up to expectations, completing 63.9% for an average of 290.4 YPG through the air. He has 12 TD passes and just five INTs in 360 attempts (great stat for a rookie!). He also leads the team in rushing, gaining 351 yards on 5.9 YPA. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald leads the team with 50 receptions for 556 yards despite slowing down, while second-year WR Christian Kirk is on the rise, after catching six passes for career-highs of 138 yards and three TDs in last week's loss to Tampa Bay (he's missed three games but has 40 catches and counting). On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona has struggled most of the season, allowing 28.1 PPG (27th) on 412.5 YPG (31st).

The 49ers were overdue to lose but now the test is to bounce back. Jimmy Garoppolo's stats do NOT match Murray's as he's averaging 231.9 YPG passing (Murray averages 60 more YPG) and his ratio of 14-8 is surely no better than Murray's 12-5. Let's not even mention that Garoppolo has 33 rushing yards to Murray's 351 (OK, I did!). Of course, Garoppolo 'hangs his hat' on his 14-3 record as a starting QB (as well he should). A cause for concern is TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) could miss his second straight game with knee and ankle injuries, while WR Emmanuel Sanders (13 for 161, two TDs in three games with the team) will be a game-time decision after suffering a rib injury during Monday's loss. The 49ers are averaging 161.8 YPG on the ground (2nd) but were held to just 87 yards by Seattle (3.2 YPC). However, it's hard to imagine San Francisco NOT running the ball well against the Cards. Despite Monday's loss, the 49ers still come in allowing just 14.6 PPG on 251.6 YPG, ranking second in the league in both categories.

What to expect? The San Francisco D is terrific but as I noted in taking Seattle Nov Game of the Month) last Monday, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense (note: San Francisco has allowed 52 points its last two games). I noted above that Garoppolo stats don't quite measure up to his gaudy W/L record as a starter but I won't ignore that he had no problem against this Arizona defense just 18 days ago, ripping them for 317 yards and four TD passes (all by the end of the start of the 4Q). I noted Arizona's sad-sack defense numbers already but will add that in losing THREE in a row, the Cards have allowed 31, 28 and 30 points. I see little reason why the 49ers won;t score easily on Arizona here (30-plus points) but will add that the Cards never gave up in that Week 9 loss to San Francisco, scoring 11 points in the 4th quarter to earn the 'back door' cover. I will not be taking the points in this one but I will go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Lamar Jackson has long ago quieted any naysayers, as he continues to make NFL history. His Ravens handed New England its first loss of the 2019 season in Week 9 (convincing 37-20 victory) and then in a possible "let down" situation in Week 10, led Baltimore to its SIXTH straight win. The Ravens CRUSHED the Bengals 49-13 last Sunday, with Jackson completing 15-of-17 passes for 223 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 67 yards rushing (on just seven carries) with one TD. He posted a perfect QB rating of 158.3, joining Ben Roethlisberger as the only players in NFL history to have two perfect passer ratings in the same season (Big Ben did it in 2007). The 7-2 Ravens will welcome the 6-3 Houston Texans to Baltimore on Sunday. The Texans are coming off their bye week and enter the game winners of FOUR of their last five. Houston leads the AFC South (Indy is 5-4, Tenn 5-5 and Jax 4-5), as it begins a three-game stretch against the Ravens, Colts and Patriots.

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7.

Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history.

Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th).

Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State.

Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs).

The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st).

Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET.

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch).

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF.

Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards.

A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th).

Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start.

The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st).

Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions.

I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET.

The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season.

Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019.

Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th).

Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th).

The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Nov Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

Who'da thunk it? Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but here in 2019, when the Ravens knocked off the Pats in Week 9's SNF game, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team. The 49ers have some extra rest (played the Thursday night game in Week 9) and they'll need every edge they can get, as Russell Wilson (leading MVPcandidiate?) leads the Seattle Seahawks into Levi's Stadium. Seattle is 7-2 and win would leave them just a half-game back of San Francisco in the NFC West. This once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade but with the departure of Harbaugh, most of the steam came out of the rivalry. In fact, this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014, where both teams have a winning record.

No QB is playing better than Russell Wilson, who has a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a passer rating of 102 or higher in eight of nine games. He's completing 68.3% for 2,505 yards and his QB rating of 118.2 is tops in the league. Tyler Lockett (team-high 59 catches and six TDs) has developed into Wilson's top target but note that rookie DK Metcalf is a star in the making, with 29 catches (18.1 YPC) with five TDs. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but the team checks in averaging 131.7 YPG on the ground this season (7th). However, RB Carson is coming on strong. After totaling only 158 yards in Seattle's first three games, he's had 100-plus in FOUR of his last six (764 yards on the season). Seattle is a legitimate NFC title contender but its "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past, as the Seahawks are allowing 25.6 PPG (22nd) on 380.8 YPG (25th).

While QB Jimmy Garoppolo takes up a lot of 'oxygen' (more in a bit), one HAS to start with San Francisco's defense. The 49ers rank first in total D (24.10 YPG) and second in scoring D (12.8 PPG). However, the 49ers suffered a big loss last week when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. "Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him," starting MLB Fred Warner said. "He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart." Getting back to Garoppolo, he threw for a personal-best four TDs and eclipsed 300 yards (317) for the third time in his career in San Francisco's 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct 31. He's completing 70.3% of his passes but even with that four-TD effort, his ratio on the season is 13-7 (not 22-1 like Wilson). Garoppolo's 'LEGEND' is based on his record as a starter (16-2, including 14-2 with the 49ers). He's greatly helped by the NFL's second-best rushing attack (171.1 YPG), led by Matt Beida (524 yards on 5.3 YPA) plus supported by Coleman (355) and Mostert (307).

Seattle had won 10 straight in the series before a 26-23 (OT) loss at Levi’s in Week 15 of 2018. However, as noted above, San Francisco was in a "rebuilding mode" in that stretch. What has me 'loving' Seattle is this spot is Seattle going 4-0 SU on the road in 2019 and covering SIX in a row as an underdog going back to early in the 2018 season. I called Baltimore's upset in Week 9 over the Pats and predict it will be "deja vu all over again" here in Week 10, with Seattle handing San Francisco its first loss of 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). However, the Vikings lost a close one last Sunday at KC 26-23, despite the Chiefs playing without Pat Mahomes.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG but the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest and after a bye week, a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants in a MNF Week 9 contest. The Cowboys now play a THIRD straight primetime game, as they welcome the Vikings to Arlington on Sunday night in Week 10.

The Vikings got a nice break last week when the Chargers upset the Packers, so Minnesota remains just one game back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. He's completing 68.8% for 2,217 yards with 16 TDs and three INTs on the season (112.0 QB rating) but while hew threw fthree TDs last Sunday, he has still not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He fell to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two FGs in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Some bad news comes in the fact that WR Adam Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and will not play. RB Dalvin Cook has run for an NFL-leading 894 yards (5.1 YPA / 9 TDs) and may get more work. Minnesota's D has been very good, allowing 17.6 PPG (4th) on 320.9 YPG (8th).

Dak Prescott is having an excellent season, averaging 297.5 YPG passing and completing 69.6 percent of his passes (both would be career highs). He leads an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 YPG, although Dallas is averaging 28.4 PPG (just 5th-best). WR Amari Cooper (42 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. We can also expect Dallas to lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott (741 yards on 4.7 YPA with six TDs), as he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys' D hasn't gotten enough credit, as it is allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 318.1 YPG (6th).

Here's the bottom line. Minnesota fell back into some bad habits at KC, as Kirk Cousins was again subject to the sort of pressure that often gets him rattled. The Vikings rarely played from behind their four-game winning streak but Cousins is now 0-10-1 SU in his career with Minnesota when trailing in the fourth quarter. Adding 'insult to injury,' Minnesota enters this contest winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record. One more thing, Prescott, is 4-0 head-to-head against Cousins!

Good luck..Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens have been the 'kings' of the preseason (have won 17 straight!) but since winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Baltimore has missed the playoffs in FOUR of the last six seasons. However, the 2019 Ravens are winners of FOUR in a row, after handing the Patriots their first loss of the season last Sunday night. Baltimore's convincing 37-20 victory over the Patriots leaves them 6-2 in the AFC North but more importantly, the victory could be the kind of signature win to propel the team to greater heights. Baltimore heads to Cincinnati this Sunday to take on the 0-8 Bengals, the NFL's only remaining winless team. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and decided to pull the plug on longtime starting QB Andy Dalton. Fourth-round draft choice Ryan Finley (NC St) will be making his first NFL start.

Many teams questioned whether Heisman-winner Lama Jackson had "the goods" to become an NFL starter but few (if any) have ny doubts now. Jackson has turned the Ravens into an offensive juggernaut that leads the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. Baltimore is also first in rushing with 204.9 YPG (5.5 YPA) and second in total offense (427.0 YPG). Jackson is completing 64.3% for 1,813 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs, plus leads the team with 637 rushing yards (6.4 YPA and 5 TDs). Another former Heisman-winner, RB Mark Ingram, has 585 rushing yards, while averaging 5.1 YPA and leads the team with seven rushing TDs. Baltimore's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era but with its "new and improved" offense, allowing 22.0 PPG (16th) on 348.8 YPG (15th) is good enough.

The Bengals out-played the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle (429 yards to 232) but lost 21-20. It's been all downhill since, as the Bengals have gone 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS and now will turn the starting QB duties over to Finley, who has never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. Cincinnati's offense ranks 29th in scoring (15.5 PPG) and 25th in total offense (317.9 YPG) plus the team's turnover margin of minus-9 isn't helping a defense ranks last in yardage allowed (435.8 YPG) and 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). The good news? How can it get worse? No Dalton at QB just may be a good thing. "I think I'm ready for it," Finley told reporters. "I'm confident in my ability to play, and I'm confident in this team's ability to bounce back and get some wins."

So why play Cincy? Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its nine division games since the beginning of last season (that's an 89% "go-against) and believe it or not, Cincinnati has won SIX of the last seven times it has hosted Baltimore. Baltimore is 'ripe' for a letdown after its Sunday night domination of the Pats and enters this game on an abysmal 2-12 ATS run when favored (an 86% "go-against), going back to Week 7 of last season..

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 10 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Buf/Cle Over at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home.

OK, I am NOT about to take the Browns but don't they have to be 'juiced' playing just their second game in Cleveland since Week 3. Buffalo does not have a prolific offense but scoring against the Browns has come fairly easy for most opponents. Yes, Buffalo has a terrific D but the Browns have to believe that if they are to have a chance to win, they will HAVE to find a way into the end zone. The low Over/Under number makes this a game that's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET.

The 3-4-1 Detroit Lions and the 3-5 Chicago Bears meet Sunday at Soldier Field and while neither team looks "playoff-bound" (or playoff-worthy), the loser of this contest can pretty much start preparing for the 2020 draft and season. The Lions lost 31-24 at Oakland last Sunday, falling to 1-4 in their last five games. QB Matthew Stafford passed for 406 yards and three TDs but failed to connect on a fourth-down attempt in the waning moments. As for the Bears, they went three-and-out on their first five possessions and managed a meager nine total yards of offense in the first half at Philly, falling behind 19-0 in a 22-14 loss, the team's FOURTH in a row.

My 10* Total of the Month is on Nevada/SD State Over at 10:30 ET.

Rocky Long played QB for New Mexico and returned to his alma mater as its head coach in 1998. He led the Lobos to just the school's second bowl appearance since 1961 in 2002, the first of FIVE bowls bids in seven years. He quit as head coach after the 2008 season but resurfaced at SD St in 2011 and has led the Aztecs to EIGHT consecutive bowls. At 7-1 (4-1 in the MWC's West Division), the 24th-ranked Aztecs will be 'bowling' for the NINTH straight season. Nevada's Mike Norvell is in just his third season with Nevada but after a 3-9 first year in 2017, led the Wolf Pack to an 8-5 record last season, including an Arizona Bowl win. Nevada checks in at 5-4 in 2019 with three games remaining, needing ONE win to be bowl-eligible once again.

The Wolf Pack snapped a two-game slide with a 21-10 victory over New Mexico last week behind freshman QB Carson Strong's solid effort. Strong won the starting QB job and played well as Nevada won two of its first three (had 295 and 299 yards passing in the two wins). However, he lost playing time over the next four games to Solano and Henry. However, Strong was back at QB in a 31-3 loss at Wyoming on Oct 26, but threw for 247 yards. He then was very good in Nevada's 21-10 win over New Mexico last Saturday, passing for a season-high 305 yards with two TDs. His return is GOOD NEWS! Still, Nevada's defense is a big concern, allowing 34.6 PPG (116th), including 41.2 PPG on the road.

San Diego State joined the AP top-25 on Sunday. The No. 24 Aztecs have a commanding lead in the MWC West Division (no other team is better than .500) and while the MWC title is the team's main focus, finishing as the top-ranked Group of Five conference team (which would earn a New Year's Six bowl game), wouldn't be 'chopped liver.' Senior QB Ryan Agnew has modest numbers (63.9% for 1,427 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs) but he's 13-2 as a starter. It sure helps that SDSU's defense is one of the nation's best, allowing only 14.1 PPG (8th) on 283.6 YPG (12th).

At first blush one could say 'Under' but be careful. SDSU's offense is averaging only 21.8 PPG but there is little reason to think that the Aztecs WON'T be able to move the ball and score against Nevada's porous defense. The Wolf Pack surely know that their D cannot be expected to do so, meaning Strong and the offense have to realize that any chance of winning 'hangs' on its ability to score. I 'LOVE' going under these sub-40 over/under numbers in CFB and note that the finals scores between these two schools the last three seasons have averaged 59.7 points, about three TDs HIGHER than the over/under number in this contest. Look out below, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET.

Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. The Vols opened 1-4 (lone win 45-0 over Chattanooga) but visit long-time rival Kentucky, having gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1. Kentucky comes in off a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26 but enters this contest just 4-4.

The Volunteers have started three QBs but junior Jarrett Guarantano has thrown the majority of the passes (161 of 243) and has 11 of the team's 14 TD passes (against five INTs). A quick check of the numbers reveal taht Tennessee is scoring 24.7 PPG on 349.0 YPG, while allowing 24.1 PPG on 3451.0 YPG (hard to make those almost identical numbers up). The Vols have just three games left and need TWO wins to become bowl-eligible. I've read where some think the Vols are surging but I view the team's recent 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run as nothing more than them taking advantage of some flawed opponents at home and covering a big spread (+34.5) while losing 35-13 at Alabama.

Kentucky knows all about QB merry-go-rounds, as an injury to starter Terry Wilson and ineffective play by Sawyer Smith has forced Stoops to turn to receiver turned quarterback, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden started the year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 348 yards but is now lining up under center. He's completing just 40.5 percent of his passes but has excelled as a runner, highlighted by a 204-yard game in Kentucky's most recent game, a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26. However, Bowden has also made some unique history in two recent games for the Wildcats. Against South Carolina, he joined Arizona State's Kalen Ballage as the only FBS players since 2000 to have at least six rushing attempts, three receptions, three kickoff returns and two pass completions in the same game. A week later against Arkansas, he had at least 20 rush attempts, 10 pass attempts and a punt return in the same game to become the third FBS player since 2000 to do so along with Kent State's Julian Edelman and Indiana's Antwaan Randle-El.

Both schools are two wins shy of bowl eligibility but while Kentucky has four game left, Tennessee only has three and one is at Missouri, where the Tigers are 5-0. Historically, beating the Wildcats has been near-automatic for the Vols, as Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee TWICE since 1984! However, the Vols lost at Kentucky in 2017, for just the second time in 33 years. That said, Kentucky is 4-1 SU at home in 2019 and 5-0 ATS, as the Wildcats covered their lone home loss against Florida, in a 29-21 loss. Revisiting that contest, the Wildcats led 21-10 early in the 4th quarter, before folding. My bet says Kentucky, not Tennessee, is the team surging. The Wildcats win at home vs Missouri began a closing stretch of playing FOUR of their last five games in Lexington, plus the lone road game is against a 2-6 Vandy team. Win here, the Wildcats could finish with EIGHT wins, before heading off to a bowl.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Stanford at 3:00 ET.

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but at 4-4 (3-3 in Pac 12), the Cardinal will need to win TWO of their final four games in 2019 to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season (ninth under Shaw). Colorado has a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker and after a 3-1 start, his Buffs have lost FIVE in a row (Buffs are 3-6 / 1-5 Pac 12).

Stanford comes into this contest off a 41-31 home win over Arizona, a game marked by the return of senior K.J. Costello, who had missed the previous three contests with a thumb injury. Costello showed few signs of any rust, completing 30-of-43 for 312 yards and three TDs. Costello has 'game,' as he showed last season by throwing for 3,540 yards with 29 TDs and just 11 INTs. Against Arizona, he connected with 12 different receivers. Senior RB Cameron Scarlett (700 YR / 4.4 YPA / 5 TDs) provided balance on the ground with 102 yards and two TDs. Stanford's offensive numbers are poor (22.6 PPG on 348.8 YPG) but with Costello back under center, that could (WILL) change.

While Stanford's offense is "on the mend," QB Montez and the Colorado offense has 'gone in the tank,' after a hot start. The Buffs opened 3-1 while averaging 35.8 PPG but Colorado 'limps' into this contest having lost FIVE in row, with the team scoring 14 or less points in THREE of its last four outings. Montez was expected to take a HUGE step forward in 2019 but that hasn't been the case, as he's thrown for a modest 2,242 yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs. However, it's hard to focus too much on Montez, when Colorado's defense has allowed 34.4 PPG (114th) on 480.7 YPG (124th).

Colorado has allowed 30 or more points in all NINE games and has allowed 333.7 YPG passing in its last three. That's "bad news' with Costello back healthy for Stanford. Thd Cardinal will likely finish with their worst record under Shaw but then again, Shaw' has compiled a 25-7 record in the month of November and he's got FOUR of them in 2019. I expect Stanford to finish strong (and extend that bowl streak). The Cardinal "got going" on the final Saturday of October with that win over Arizona (see above) and coming off a bye week, are "rested and ready" to roll over a Colorado team which is stumbling to the finish line. Blowout Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on TCU at 12:00 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 after surviving a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite. Baylor owns a 10-game winning streak and currently is ranked 11th in the latest AP poll, while opening No. 12 in the first CFP rankings. The Bears head to Forth Worth on Saturday to face the 4-4 TCU Horned Frogs (2-2 in Big 12). TCU beat then-No. 15 Texas 34-27 on Oct 26 but then lost 34-27 at Oklahoma St last Saturday. Head coach Gary Patterson but it well telling reporters last Saturday, "We're just good enough we can beat anybody we got in this league, and we're just good enough we can get beat by anybody in this league." , 

Baylor's latest win was a 17-14 Halloween night victory over West Virginia in which it found a way to eke out a win by fending off the Mountaineers' big plays. Baylor outgained West Virginia 453-219 but lost three fumbles. QB Charlie Brewer is completing 67.6 percent for 2,143 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. FIVE players have over 160 yards rushing, led by Lovett (495 YR / 6.4 YPA) and Hasty (439 RY / 6.3 YPA). Baylor owns a very balanced offense, averaging 280.9 YPG passing and 199.4 YPG rushing, leading to averaging 36.1 PPG (24th). The defense has played well all season, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG (20th) on 341.1 YPG (31st). 

TCU played a bad game at Stillwater last week. The Horned Frogs allowed 223 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher, the most ever by an opponent in coach Gary Patterson's 19-season tenure in Fort Worth. The Frogs also committed four turnovers. QB Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss with a finger injury but Patterson has told reporters he expects Duggan to play. The freshman has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs (three coming vs OSU). Like Baylor, TCU has excellent offensive balance, passing for 221.5 YPG and rushing for 220.2 YPG, while averaging 33.4 PPG (42nd). The defense is allowing a modest 326.2 YPG (25th) but 26.1 PPG (59th). 

Rhule has done a great job at Baylor but the Bears begin a brutal three-game stretch, starting with this game at Fort Worth. Baylor returns home next Saturday to host No. 9 Oklahoma and then travels to Austin to play Texas the following Saturday.  More importantly, how many times can Baylor "pull a rabbit out of its hat?" The Bears edged Iowa St 23-21, needed two OTs to beat Texas Tech (now 3-5) and in its last game, beat West Va (now 3-5) by three points. Even Baylor's 45-27 win over OSU was deceiving. The Bears actually trailed 27-24 in the 4th quarter, before scoring the game's last three TDs. How tough has TCU been at home under Gary Patterson. He took over at TCU full-time in 2001 and since that first season, the Horned Frogs are 89-22 SU at home, including 3-1 in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-22.2 PPG. The Horned Frogs have won FOUR straight over Baylor and ruin the Bears perfect season with a win here. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET.

8-0 Penn St is ranked 5th in the AP poll but entered the first College Football Playoff rankings at fourth, a first-ever for the school. Penn St's last game was an Oct 26 win at Michigan St (28-7), so the Nittany Lions head to Minneapolis with a week of rest. Like Penn St, Minnesota is also 8-0 (both are 5-0 in the Big Ten but Penn St is in the East and Minnesota in the West) and the Golden Gophers are also coming off a bye week. Minnesota routed Maryland 52-10 on Oct 26,  reaching 8-0 for the first time since 1941 (note: Minnesota has not started a season 9-0 in 115 years!).

Penn St is tied with Ohio St in the East and will meet the Buckeyes, who were No. 1 in the 1st CFP rankings, at Columbus on Nov 23. However, that upcoming game with the Buckeyes won't mean as much if the Lions cannot solve the Gophers.Sophomore QB Sean Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (1,931) and TDs (20), while throwing just three INTs. The Penn St running game is nothing special, averaging 172.4 YPG (57th). Freshman Noah Cain leads a fleet of running backs with 350 yards (hardly impressive). However, Penn St is averaging 38.5 PPG (13th) and that's "plenty good enough" with the team's OUTSTANDING defense. Penn St will enter TCF Bank Stadium allowing just 9.6 PPG (2nd) on 280.5 YPG (10th).

Minnesota head coach PF Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 when the Broncos completed an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season, although Penn St will be the first ranked team Minnesota has faced. QB Tanner Morgan has similar numbers to Clifford, completing 65.3% for for 1,761 yards with 18 TDs and four INTs. Minnesota's running game is better than Penn St's, averaging 204.5 YPG (31st), led by senior Rodney Smith (889 YR / 5.8 YPA / 7 TDs), who has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Big Ten games. Minnesota's D is allowing just 283.8 YPG (13th) but has allowed 20.0 PPG, about 10 1/2 points more per game than Penn St.

The QB matchup is 'a push,' but Minnesota has the  best RB in the game (Smith). Take note that Penn St's offense has slowed, averaging under 300 YPG its last three games, while scoring just 24.3 PPG (that's two TDs below its season average). I'm 'rowing the boat' with Fleck by "taking the points" with Minnesota.

Good luck....Larry

My 9* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The 4-5 LA Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders are still both 'alive' for a playoff spot in the AFC but both teams will need to finish strong. The Chargers opened 2-5 but eked out a 17-16 win at Chicago in Week 8 and then played their best game of the year in beating the Packers 26-11 in LA last Sunday (Green Bay entered the game 7-1). The Chargers dominated the first half on both sides of the ball gained 250 yards in the first half, while holding the Packers to just 50 yards. However, LA led just 9-0, before RB Gordon added two rushing TDs and PK Badgley kicked a fourth FG for a 15-point win.

The Raiders went just 4-12 in 2018, in Jon Gruden's 1st year back as the team's head coach. All in all, Oakland has to be happy to be 4-4 midway through its 16-game schedule, as after opening with two home games (a win over Denver and a loss to KC), the Raiders played their next FIVE games away from home (four road games and a contest in London). Oakland's game last Sunday against the Lions was the team's first home game since Sep 15. The Raiders needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off Detroit 31-24 but moved within a game of the sixth and final playoff slot. "I love this place. It's special," QB Derek Carr said of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "To come home in front of them and get a win, especially the way we did it. It would be nice to win something 40-0 some time. But when you win one like this, it does so many good things for a team."

LA fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt following the team's 17-16 victory in Chicago and in last Sunday's win over Green Bay, there was clearly more of an effort to run the ball. Melvin Gordon ran for 80 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler added 70 yards, as the Chargers established a season-high of 159 yards rushing against Green Bay. Rivers threw for 294 yards on a season-low 28 attempts but as noted above, the result was LA's best game of the year. Rivers is averaging 292.6 YPG through the air and is well on his way to another 4,000-yard passing season (his 11th in the L12 years) but he's got a modest 12-7 TD-to-INT ratio. LA's defense has been solid all season, ranking 8th in both points allowed (18.7 per) and total D (322.8 YPG).

Rumors were that Gruden and QB Carr were not quite on the same page but Derek Carr is having an excellent season, completing 71.2% for an average of 251.4 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs (105.1 QB rating). Rookie RB Jacobs (from Alabama) is blossoming into a star, rushing for 740 yards on 4.9 YPA with six TDs. Carr has capable WRs in Williams (23 catches / 15.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Renfro (24 catches / 10.7 YPC / 2 TDs) but his "go-to" guy has been TE Darren Waller, who leads the team with 48 catches and 548 receiving yards. Oakland's D has been a problem, allowing 27.0 PPG (26th) and an NFL-high 299.9 YPG.

Los Angeles has won four in a row in the series (including a pair of double-digits victories by a combined 46-16 last season) but Oakland is NOT a 4-12 team in 2019. I'm not ready to accept that the Chargers' rushing attack is now back on track because of ONE game, as after all, the Chargers rank 28th in the NFL by averaging 79.4 YPG on the ground on a 3.6 YPA. Meanwhile, Oakland's Jacobs has become the first rookie since Cincinnati's Ickey Woods to rush for two TDs three times in his first eight contests, while to leading a running game averaging 136.4 YPG on the ground (4th). Jacobs and Oakland's OL, which has permitted only one sack the last four weeks, have sure helped Derek Carr in playing mistake-free football. Carr has nine TDs and just one INT over his last five games, while posting QB ratings of 119.2, 125.0 and 116.2 in his last three.

This is a HUGE game for the Raiders, as after the Chargers, they play the Bengals (0-8) and Jets (1-7). Beat the Chargers and the Raiders could reasonably be 7-4 through 11 games!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Temple at 8:00 ET.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF have put what could have been a special season for the Owls on 'life-support.' The USF Bulls went 11-2 (2016) and 10-2 (2017) but after a 7-0 start in 2018, finished with SIX straight losses. The Bulls opened the 2019 season 1-3 but have rebounded by winning THREE of four to reach 4-4

Temple’s vet QB Russo (1,873 passing yards / 16-8 ratio) has thrown for just 370 yards in the Owls' back-to-back losses, while Temple's ground game was non-existent (114 yards on 1.6 YPA). Temple does have two solid RBs in Davis (655 yards on 4.9 YPA) and Gardner (405 yards on 4.0 YPA), with both scoring five times. It's hard NOT seeing them being able to run against South Florida rush D allowing 199.2 YPG (103rd). Temple's D has been gored the last two games but in the team's 5-1 start, had allowed a modest 19.0 PPG.

USF has used two QBs this season and neither has been effective. Barrett is completing 51.9% with four TDs and two INTs and McCloud is completing 55.6% with 10 TDs and six INTs. The Bulls ran for for 347 yards in beating East Carolina 45-20 but the Pirates are an awful defensive team, allowing 204.3 YPG on the ground. USF's four wins have come over South Carolina St (FCS) plus UConn, ECU and BYU. The BYU victory is the team's "marquee win" and note that the Cougars are only 4-4 (Bulls won just, 27-23 in Tampa). UConn and ECU are a combined 5-13.

USF has has averaged 43.8 PPG in the team's four victories but just 8.5 PPG in losing to Wisconsin, Ga Tech, SMU and Navy. USF led 17-0 at the half last year at Temple, but the Owls came back to win 27-17, with QB Russo passing for 264 yards. I'm looking for Temple to 'shake off' its back-to-back losses and avoid the team's first three-game losing streak since 2014 (Owls' last non-bowl team, which finished 6-6). Temple becomes bowl-eligible with a win here and could be well on its way to matching, or surpassing, last year's eight wins.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 7:00 ET.

The Kent State Golden Flashes do not have much of football hiistory, unless you consider the school's ineptness, noteworthy. Darrell Hazzell led KSU to an 11-3 season in 2012, the school's first winning season since 2001 (6-5). FYI, prior to 2001, KSU had 13 consecutive losing seasons. Hazzell used that 2012 season to get the job at Purdue and by the way, he was fired after 3 1/2 seasons in which he was 9-33. Getting back to KSU, the Golden Flashes have had SIX straight losing season since Hazzell jumped ship, including current head coach Sean Lewis' 2-10 record in 2018 (his first at the school). The Golden Flashes are 3-5 here in 2019. In stark contrast, Toledo has had 21 winning seasons in its last 25. The Rockets entered the current season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 5-3, is well on their way to another winning season and bowl appearance in 2019. Both schools have been off since Oct 26, as the month of November brings "MACtion,"with the conference playing a plethora of non-Saturday games through the day after Thanksgiving.

Head coach Sean Lewis started the season with Woody Barrett under center but he was quickly replaced by junior Dustin Crum, a decision that has turned out well. Crum is completing 67.0% for 1,345 yards with 10Tds and just one INT. He is also the team's leading rusher, as KSU is averaging a middle-of-the-road 170.8 YPG on the ground (61st). Kent is averaging only 23.9 PPG (100th) on 365.8 YPG (96th). Defensively, KSU is allowing 30.9 PPG (93rd) on 467.8 YPG (119th).

Toledo has some QB issues, as both Mitchell Guadagni and Carter Bradley are dealing with injuries. Toldeo turned Eli Peters in its last game and Peters completed 9 of 18 for just 138 yards but threw two TDs and zero INTs (note: Peters threw 18 TDs vs 7 INTs in 2018). RB Bryant Koback ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and he has run for 985 yards on the season (6.6 YPC and 8 TDs). Toledo ranks 13th in rushing, averaging 245.0 YPG.

Toledo is NOT in good shape in the highly competitive MAC West but Toledo faces an excellent matchup here, as its excellent running game (see above) faces a KSU rush D which is allowing 128th in the nation at 250.9 YPG. Kent St is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019, getting outscored on average, 36.2-to-17.4 PPG. This marks Kent's first game against a West opponent in 2019 and it can't be ignored that the Golden Flashes are just 1-12 vs West opponents going back to 2014. Series history reveals that Toledo has won 11 of 13 vs Kent since 1988 and that Kent has not won at Toledo since 1977! I noted earlier that Toledo has posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and the Rockets entered the current season 43-12 SU at home . The Rockets are 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 35.2-to-19.8 PPG. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have opened 8-0 behind a suffocating defense that is No. 1 in scoring D (7.6 PPG) and total D (234.0 YPG). New England also leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks. The Pats are No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-17) and have incredibly allowed just 15 third-down conversions in 96 attempts. Brady is not having a vintage season (64.7% for 2,251 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs), while New England's running game is averaging only 95.2 YPG (23rd). However, the Pats lead the NFL with an average of 31.2 PPG. Bill Belichick's team is seeking its first 9-0 start since 2015 when it visit Baltimore for NBC's SNF. The Patriots are 8-1 in the last nine regular-season meetings (6-1 with Brady) with the Ravens, but Baltimore has posted a pair of playoff victories at New England in that span.

The Ravens are 5-2 and lead a division (AFC North) which features three sub-.500 teams (Steelers are in 2nd-place at 3-4). The Ravens were off last week and QB Lamar Jackson threw for a season-low 143 yards in a 30-16 Week 7 win at Seattle. However, he ran for 116 yards and a TD. It was his third 100-yard game of the season to boost his team-leading total to 576. Jackson is the only QB to ever pass for at least 1,500 yards (1,650) and rush for 500 (576 on 6.9 YPC with 3 TDs) in the first seven games of a season. Mark Ingram has rushed for 470 yards (4.7 YPC) and seven TDs. That duo has Baltimore leading the NFL in rushing yards (204.1 YPG on 5.5 YPC) and only New England is averaging more than Baltimore's 30.6 PPG. However, the team's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era, allowing 22.3 PPG on 349.7 YPG (both averages rank 16th).

I could go on and on listing superlatives about New England. The Patriots have already squared off and WON against four QBs drafted in the first round in 2018 and will now face a fifth member from that class in Jackson. What's more, New England has won 21 straight against first- or second-year QBs but as noted above, Lamar Jackson is literally, in a "class by himself" (see above). I noted Baltimore's top-ranked rushing offense above and will add that the Pats allowed 159 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) last Sunday against the Browns. Could Baltimore run the ball and keep it away from Brady. Teams can't "win'em all" and it's tough to ignore that under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 9-2 SU coming off a bye week. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Cle/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, as they were expecting to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season enters its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-5, after losing their THIRD consecutive game 27-13 at New England last Sunday. The Browns visit Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos. Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos D is allowing 18.9 PPG (4th) on 304.5 YPG (4th) but the team's offense (15.6 PPG, ranking 28th) has kept them from doing any better than 2-6.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 57.6 percent with 6 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 67.8. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (738 yards on 5.5 YPC with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry, who have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play. The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (22nd).

Denver QB Joe Flacco was diagnosed with a herniated disk in his neck after last Sunday's 15-13 to the Colts, a contest in which he complained about the team's conservative play-calling. Whether or not Flacco was right, we know that he has failed to eclipse more than 213 yards passing in each of his last four games and has thrown just six TDs (five INTs) on the season. Denver's running game is averaging only 110.0 YPG (16th) but the Broncos do own a pair of quality RBs in Lindsay (492 yards / 4.5 YPC) and Freeman (359 yards / 4.1 YPC). Flacco's herniated disk will sideline him six weeks at a minimum, so the Broncos will turn to Brandon Allen, a fourth-year pro from Arkansas who will make his first start since Jan 2, 2016, against Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.

Allen becomes the SIXTH different starting QB for the Broncos since the start of the 2016 season (Elway sure KNOWS a QB when he sees one!). "First of all, Brandon is a very intelligent dude,” RB Phillip Lindsay said. “I’m excited to see what he has to offer. I think he’s going to move around a lot, and I think he’s going to take shots and stuff.” Speaking of Lindsay, he joins Freeman as a solid 1-2 RB Denver combo that will face a Cleveland rush D allowing 143.3 YPG on the ground (29th). I expect Denver to be successful against Cleveland's sad-sack defense but I also see a good (possibly excellent) performance from Mayfield, now that Browns realize 2019 we be another in a long line of disappointments. This VERY low Over/Under number gives us a strong play on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 9 Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Bears won the NFC Central last season with a 12-4 record, led by a defense that ranked first in points allowed (17.7 per) and third in total defense (299.7 YPG). However, Chicago's postseason ended with Cody Parkey's double-doink FG misfire in a 16-15 home loss to the Eagles. Chicago still features an excellent defense, allowing 17.7 PPG (6th) on 316.6 YPG (7th) but the team's offense has been a HUGE problem. When Eddy Pineiro's (Chicago's new PK) 41-yard FG attempt went awry in the waning moments of last Sunday's 17-16 setback to the LA Chargers, the Bears fell to 3-4, leaving them in last-place in a division led by the 7-1 Packers and one which also includes the 6-2 Vikings. The Eagles have had a rough time of it in 2019 as well, although Philly is off an impressive 38-13 win last week at Buffalo, a team which entered with a 5-1 record. It was Philly's THIRD straight road game but the Eagles delivered their best effort of the season, coming off back-to-back road losses tat Minnesota and Dallas where they were outscored 75-30!

Pineiro's missed FG pushed Chicago's offensive woes off 'the front page' but things won't improve for the Bears unless they can 'fix' and offense which ranks 27th (18.3 PPG) on 281.4 YPG (29th). I read this quote and am 'forced' to 'borrow' it. "If here is one thing worse than whiffing on taking a QB high in the draft like the Bears did with Mitch Trubisky, it’s compounding that mistake by sticking with Trubisky. " As Archie Bunker once opined, "Case Closed!" Chicago ranks 29th in passing yards (198.3 per) and 26th in rushing (83.1 YPG), on 3.6 YPC. Those rushing numbers come AFTER rookie David Montgomery posted season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (135) against the Chargers.

Chicago could sure use Jordan Howard, who rushed for 3,370 yards and 24 touchdowns during his first three seasons with Chicago. However, he was traded to Philadelphia for a conditional sixth-round pick. Howard leads the Eagles with 443 yards (4.4 YPC / 5 TDs). Conventional wisdom says Carson Wentz is having an "off year" but he kept pace with Seattle's Russell Wilson by tossing a TD pass in his 11th consecutive contest on Sunday. He's got a 14-4 ratio but his throws have been VERY conservative. TE Ertz (37 catches) is averaging only 11.5 YPC, while WRs Jeffrey (30) and Agholor (29) are averaging only 10.6 and 9.0, respectively. Philly's defense has battled injury problems most of the season (especially in the secondary) but the unit played its best game of 2019 at Buffalo, allowing 13 points on just 253 yards (note: the secondary has gotten healthie).

Sure, it's "playoff revenge" for Chicago but discounting a London game in Week 5 (Oct 6), the Bears haven’t played a true road game since Sep 23 (Week 3). Looking back, maybe it wasn’t such an upset that the Bears lost to the Raiders in London. Chicago just isn’t a very good team and its morale can't be very high due to inept QB play and a shaky PK. Meanwhile, the Philly offense just put up 38 points on a Buffalo D that entered last week's game allowing just 15.6 PPG plus it appears like WR Sean Jackson is ready to return from an abdominal injury that has kept him out since Week 2 (eight catches on 19.3 YPC!). Philly moves to 5-4 and then awaits the results of MNF, when the 5-3 Cowboys play at the Giants. As for the Bears, they will begin "looking ahead" to 2020, while trying to figure just why they chose Trubisky ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft. OOOPS!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday.

The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back.

Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th).

KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1).

Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET.

Jeff Tedford came to in 2017 and led a team which went 1-11 in 2016 to a 10-4 record in 2017and then to a 12-2 record in 2018. However, most anticipated that 2019 would be a rebuilding one for the Bulldogs and that has been the case. Fresno is 3-4 overall (1-2 MWC) and travels to Hawaii off a 41-31 home loss to Colorado St. Hawaii checks in at 5-3 (2-2 in MWC) and this contest with Fresno St opens a stretch in which Hawaii will play FOUR of its final five games at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu (13-game schedule).

Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna is completing 62.8% for 1,655 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs.The team has suffered injuries to its RB group and checks in averaging 166.9 YPG (70th). That said, FSU has averaged 33.0 PPG (36th). The problem for FSU in 2019 has been a defense that allowed just 14.1 PPG (2018) and 17.9 (2017), has allowed 31.0 PPG (95th) in 2019.

Hawaii QB Cole McDonald is completing 65.5% for 2,521 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs (Hawaii ranks 3rd in the nation, averaging 354.5 YPG through the air). Hawaii's defense is even worse than Fresno's, allowing 35.4 PPG (120th) on 437.8 YPG (104th).

Fresno has won SEVEN of the last eight meetings but TY's Fresno edition only has wins over Sacramento St (FCS), New Mexico St (0-8) and UNLV (2-6). The Rainbow Warriors have a much more balanced offensive attack and are staring down a bowl bid with this contest, as well as home games with San Jose St and Army still to go.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

Nevada began 2019 with a 34-31 home upset of Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. The Wolf Pack edged San Jose St 41-38 at home to open October but have since lost 36-10 at Utah St and 31-3 at Wyoming. The Wolf Pack return home this Saturday at 4-4 (1-3 in MWC) to host 2-6 New Mexico (0-4 MWC). The Lobos enter this contest on a five-game slide.

Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos beat Sam Houston St (FCS ) and New Mexico St (currently 0-8) in its first three games but as noted above, has now lost FIVE in a row. New Mexico owns a solid running game (211.8 YPG ranks 25th) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 37.6 PPG (126th) on 505.6 YPG (129th).

Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii but the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.1 PPG (117th) on 357.2 YPG (100th). However, here's the rub. These schools have met just seven times (series is tied 3-3-1) but the home team is 5-1-1. Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 61-28 SU since 2005 and a victory here puts Nevada just ONE win away from bowl eligibility, with games at Fresno St (3-4) and home to UNLV (2-6) still left on the schedule. As for New Mexico, it's time for Davie to go!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on USC at 8:00 ET.

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Memphis at 7:30 ET.

Could anyone have possibly imagined at the start of the 2019 season that this Nov 2 game featuring SMU at Memphis would find ESPN's "GameDay" descending on Memphis for its pregame show. However, that's what we have as 8-0 SMU is one just NINE unbeatens in CFB and carries its No. 15 ranking into the Liberty Bowl to battle 7-1 Memphis, which is ranked 24th. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU is off to its best start since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. Memphis' Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl. The winner of this game will likely hold the "inside track" on a New Years' Day Bowl (highest-ranked school from the Group of Five will earn a berth in the Cotton Bowl).

SMU didn't quite meet Dykes' standards last weekend at Houston but the Mustangs never trailed and managed to hold on for a 34-31 victory for their first 4-0 start in conference play since 1986. Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele is completing 63.2% for 2,325 yards (AAC-best 290.6 YPG with 20 TDs and just three INTs. RB Xavier Jones leads SMU with 884 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) for a team averaging 202.8 YPG on the ground (32nd). That nice balance has seen SMU score at least 34 points in every game and enters the contest ranked sixth nationally in scoring offense (43.0 PPG). Defensively, SMU is no better than middle-of-the pack, allowing 27.8 PPG (67th) on 387.5 YPG (60th).

Memphis knows all about "close calls," after holding on for a 42-41 comeback victory last weekend, when Tulsa's Jacob Rainey missed a 29-yard FG attempt as time expired. As the press release from Memphis' sports information department noted following that one-point victory, "Sometimes, a memorable season needs the assistance of a fortunate break." RB Kenneth Gainwell posted his sixth consecutive 100-yard game and scored a season-high three TDs for the Tigers. He's got 979 yards on the season (7.1 YPC / 11 TDs) and currently owns an FBS-best average of 177.4 scrimmage yards per game. QB Brady White's numbers rank right with Buechele's, completing 69.0% for 2,014 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. The Memphis D is better than SMU's, but not by all that much. Memphis is allowing 23.0 PPG (42nd) on 375.0 YPG (54th).

Sure, Memphis was fortunate last week at Tulsa but SMU has also had some good fortune, with FOUR four wins by seven points or less, including a 34-31 win over a 3-5 Houston team last Saturday (note: SMU was outgained 510-385) plus a 43-37 three-OT win back on Oct 5 at HOME, over the same Tulsa team that almost beat Memphis last Saturday (note: Tulsa sits just 2-6). Dykes has done a remarkable job at SMU but this team is 'ripe for the plucking' and Memphis has all the tools to put an end to the Mustangs' perfect season. The Tigers' ONLY loss of 2019 was a two-point one at Temple, when the Tigers committed FOUR turnovers. Memphis has been great at home under Norvell, going 18-4 SU in his tenure, including 4-0 in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 38.0-to-18.5 PPG. Looking for a 'clincher?' How about two? Memphis has won FIVE straight over SMU (average score 43-13) and under Norvell (1st season was 2016), Memphis is 10-1 SU and ATS (that's 91%), in the month of November, averaging 49.0 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Cincy/East Carolina Over at 7:00 ET.

No. 17 Cincinnati (6-1 / 3-0 AAC) is riding a five-game winning streak and coming off a bye week as the Bearcats travel to Greenville, NC to taken on the East Carolina Pirates (3-5 / 0-3 AAC). Cincy is 3-0 and owns a win over 3-1 UCF, which puts the Bearcats in position as "the favorite" in the East Division of the AAC, as well as in the hunt for a “New Year’s Six” bowl. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and comes into this contest on a three-game slide,

Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. QB Desmond Ridder is hardly special but he has thrown a TD pass in all but one game on the season and has 14 TD passes against a modest five INTs. The running is slightly above average (173.4 YPG ranks 57th) and Cincy is averaging 28.6 PPG, despite being shut out 42-0 at Ohio St. Cincy's defense is allowing 20.4 PPG (24) and that average dips to 16.8 PPG, without the Ohio St debacle. The Bearcats' success on D has come with using, on average, 20 players per game. Cincinnati ranks second in the nation in turnovers gained and has recorded FIVE in each of its last two games

ECU's three wins have come over Gardner-Webb, William & Mary and Old Dominion. QB Holton Ahlers struggled once again in the team's 45-20 loss to 4USF, failing to throw a TD and being replaced late in the fourth quarter. He's completing just 55.6% for 1,672 yards with 7 TDs and 7 INTs. He gets little help fom his running game (155.6 YPG ranks 80th) and ECU's defense is giving up 28.2 PPG (72nd) but that number is deceiving. The Pirates have allowed just 37 points in its three wins (see above for the quality, or lack threreof, of those 'victims'), while allowing an average of 37.8 PPG in the team's five losses.

ECU is coming off back-to-back games in which its defense has allowed 41 points on 611 yards and 45 points on 525 yards, which sets up nicely for my 'over' play. Throw out the 42-0 loss at Ohio St and Cincy has averaged just over 33 PPG and there is no reason (coming off a bye), that the Bearcats will have ANY trouble scoring against the ECU defense. The Bearcats will surely remember losing the last time here (2017), when they fell 48-20 to an ECU team which would finish 3-9. Cincy took ECU 'to the woodshed' last year at home, winning 56-6 (note: Ridder threw for 335 yards and 4 TDPs in that one!). East Carolina is still looking for its first AAC win and it won't come here. I expect Cincy to roll, after the Bearcats looked listless in winning just 24-13 at home vs Tulsa (gained only 317 yards), two Saturday's ago. Cincy has scored more than 40 points just once in 2019 (52-14 at Marshall) but I see them topping that total here, meaning this game flies over!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on Washington at 4:00 ET.

Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll, while Utah checked in right behind them at No. 14. However, as the two Pac-12 schools meet Saturday in Seattle, Utah is ranked 9th in the latest AP poll (7-1 / 3-1 in Pac-12), while Washington is unranked at 5-3 (2-3 in Pac-12). Utah vists Washington in the midst of a dominating defensive stretch, holding opponents to just 23 points during a four-game winning streak, while scoring 146 points (36.5 PPG). The streak began after the Utes lost their lone game of 2019, 30-23 at USC on Sep 20. The Huskies are coming off a bye week, getting a much-need break after losing 35-31 at home against now-No. 7 Oregon on Oct 19 (Washington led 28-14 and 31-21 in that one).

Utah's D gets most of the attention (10.2 P PG ranks 4th and 231.2 YPG ranks 3rd), as the Utes have held four teams to seven or fewer points this season. However, Utah's offense is averaging 33.1 PPG (38th) on 452.4 YPG (30th). Senior QB Tyler Huntley is completing 73.1 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards and 10 TDs, while throwing just one interception. He is the 5th QB in program history to top 6,000 career yards (6,037). Senior RB Zack Moss (728 rushing yards / 6.6 YPC / 10 TDs) has set records for career rushing TDs (33) and career 100-yard games (15) plus holds the Utah's career rushing yardage mark of 3,379.

Obviously, Washington is a disappointment with three losses but head coach Chris Petersen has had a bye week to prepare for the challenge of moving the ball against the Utes. Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's thrown three or more TD passes in four different games, completing 67.4 percent for 1,981 yards,with 16 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (663 RY / 5.8 YPC / 7 TDs). Washington is averaging 35.8 PPG (28th) and most teams would be happy with a defense allowing 21.5 PPG (33rd).

Hopes of a Pac-12 title are pretty much 'dead' (Huskies are 2-3 in the Pac-12 North while the Ducks are 5-0) but Petersen is a quality coach and Washington a quality program which will play with plenty of pride. Utah was not able to win at USC (allowed 30 points) and the Huskies have totally dominated the Utes in this series, winning 12 of 13 all-time meetings. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET.

No. 6 Florida and No. 8 Georgia square off in Jacksonville on Saturday. The programs first met in 1915 and have played every season since 1926 except for a war-time interruption in 1943. It is one of the most prominent rivalry games in college football, and has been held in Jacksonville, Florida since 1933, with only two exceptions, making it one of the few remaining neutral-site rivalries in college football. It's earned it the nickname of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party." The winner of this game will gain the inside track to the SEC East Division title and a spot in the SEC championship game (Dec 7).

Both teams were off last week and Georgia enters 6-1 (3-1 in the SEC). Recent series history tells us that the team that rushes for the most yards will win the rivalry contest. The team that has won the rushing battle has won this matchup each of the past 13 years, which could be good news for a Georgia. RB Swift has 752 yards rushing (6.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and leads a Georgia rushing game that is tops in the SEC, averaging 238.4 YPG (ranks 16th nationally). QB Jake Fromm is now a junior but while he's completing 70.7% of his passes, he has a modest nine TD passes (just three INTs), after producing ratios of 24-7 as a freshman and 30-6 as a sophomore. The Bulldogs do own an outstanding defense, allowing just 10.6 PPG (5th) on 267.1 YPG (7th).

It's unlikely that Florida will out-rush Georgia, as the Gators leading rusher is Perine (a modest 460 yards / 4.6 YPC) and team is averaging only 142.8 YPG (90th). However, the Gators may just have an edge at QB (I believe they do), as since taking over for the injured Feleipe Franks, junior Kyle Trask has passed for 1,351 yards and 13 TDs (just 4 INTs) while completing 67.1 percent of his passes.It sure helps that he has a deep set of receivers, as Florida is one of three FBS schools (Eastern Michigan and Washington State are the others) to have four players with at least 275 receiving yards, at least 20 receptions and at least two TDs. Florida's D may not quite be in Georgia's class but the Gators are allowing just 15.8 PPG (12th) on 323.4 YPG (25th).

Both schools have one loss, with each losing on the same day (Oct 12). Florida lost a 42-28 decision at now-No. 1 LSU, while Georgia lost 20-17 in double overtime at HOME against South Carolina (Bulldogs were a three-TD favorite). The Gators' 42-28 loss at LSU was MUCH closer than the final score. Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! Meanwhile, Georgia's home loss to South Carolina (Gamecocks are currently 3-5, after losing 41-21 to a bad Tennessee team), was just plain embarrassing. Fromm threw THREE interceptions and Georgia's offense was only able to put up 17 points against a defense that has since allowed 38 points at home to Florida and 41 points at Tennessee.

Florida dominated then-No. 7 Auburn, holding an offense that has averaged 34.2 PPG on 415.4 YPG to 13 points and 269 yards in an 11-point win. Then, as noted above, Florida went toe-to-toe at LSU. In contrast, in Georgia lone game games vs a ranked opponent (at home against then-No. 7 Notre Dame), the Bulldogs barely got by, winning 23-17 (as 15.5-point favorite), as Fromm passed for just 187 yards. That win hardly looks impressive now, after Michigan exposed Notre Dame as a 'fraud,' routing the Fighting Irish 45-14 last Saturday. My bet says Fla handles Ga in this one and best of all, we are getting about a TD!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Central Michigan at 12:00 ET.

The 3-5 Northern Illinois Huskies travel to Mount Pleasant, Mi to take on the 5-4 Central Michigan Chippewas. Both schools play in the MAC West, where Ball St leads the way at 3-1. NIU is 2-2 and CMU 3-2, so the winner of this game will still be 'alive' for a shot to reach the MAC championship game. The Huskies are coming off a 49-0 romp over Akron but the Zips are 0-8 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 13 in a row. As for the Chippewas, they got hammered 43-20 at Buffalo last Saturday, snapping a three-game winning streak.

Marcus Childers started at QB fro NIU against Akron (Ross Bowers is recovering from a concussion) and while he only attempted nine passes, completing seven for 71 yards, he threw three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU ran for 274 yards but on the season, the Huskies are averaging just 130.9 YPG on the ground (106th). NIU averages 24.9 PPG (94th), while allowing 25.4 PPG (51st). Word is that Bowers is probable for this contest but he's completing a modest 57.3% with just five TDs and five INTs. Is that good or bad news?

CMU has used two QBs this season as well, David Moore (57.3% / 5-4 ratio) and Quinten Dormady (63.7% / 8-4 ratio). Moore was suspended and hasn't played since Oct 5, while Dormady threw for 272 yards with two TDs and two INTs against Buffalo. It was his THIRD straight start and he had led CMU to 42 and 38 points in the first two (three TDs and just one INT). CMU features a solid running game with Ward (725 yards / 6.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and Lewis (645 yards / 5.3 YPC / 8 TDs) both contributing to the team averaging 176.7 YPG on the ground (53rd). CMU's defense allows 29.0 PPG (78th).

The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies' have won two of three MAC games since but this feels like a team suffering through a 'down season.'

Jim McElwain is in his first season at CMU. He did a very good job at Colo St, which led to him getting the fForida job. He did go 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons at Florida but he was brought in to 'spice up' Florid and he failed miserably at that. At 3-4 in his third season, he was fired. However, he has CMU one win away from bowl eligibility, mainly due to the Chippewas going 4-0 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 41.8-to-22.2 PPG. Recent history is on CMU's side, as last year's 24-16 loss to NIU ended a four-game winning streak by CMU over NIU (4-0 ATS, as well). NIU is 1-4 on the road this season, allowing 33.2 PPG. My bet says the Huskies' road woes continue.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 7-0., joining the AFC's New England Patriots (8-0) as one of just TWO unbeatens in NFL 2019. The 49ers were among the early surprises in the NFC but they have now emerged as one of the front-runners to reach the Super Bowl. San Francisco permitted just 10 points in three straight wins (Weeks 5-7) and then BLASTED the visiting Carolina Panthers (who came in on a 4-0 SU & ATS run) in Week 8, 51-13 last Sunday, Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ got off to an 0-3-1 start in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7, before coming back to earth in a 31-9 drubbing at New Orleans this past Sunday. Thursday's matchup will offer an intriguing subplot, featuring a showdown between the top-two picks in this year's NFL Draft, No. 1 pick QB Kyler Murray of Arizona and No. 2 pick Nick Bosa.(DE) of San Francisco.

Bosa earned a spot in the history books last week by becoming the third rookie to record at least three sacks and an interception in one game since the sack became an official stat in 1982. San Francisco's defense ranks 1st in total D (224.4 YPG) and 2nd in points allowed (11.0 PPG). QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of kudos for record as a starter (15-2 / 13-2 with SF) but his numbers are pretty average in 2019 (217.0 YPG with 9 TDs and 7 INTs). His receiving corps is fairly average as well but the team's running game ranks second in the NFL with 181.1 YPG. Little-known RBs like Breida (446 yards / 5.3 YPC) and Mostert (309 yards / 5.7 YPC) have seen former Atlanta Falcon Tevin Coleman really start to make a difference. He ran for 105 yards (9.5 YPC) with three TDs plus had a TD catch last Sunday vs the Panthers. Coleman missed three games earlier but now has 332 yards on 4.7 YPC with five TDs.

In stark contrast to San Francisco's running game, Arizona is dealing with some serious issues in its backfield due to injuries to its top RBs, David Johnson (ankle) and Chase Edmonds (hamstring). Those injuries necessitated the acquisition of Kenyan Drake from Miami on Monday. "I think Kenyan can come in and do some things that can fit what we need right now,” Kingsbury said of Drake, who rushed for 535 yards and had a career-high 53 receptions last season with the Dolphins. Murray is averaging 248.5 yards passing, completing 63.% with seven TDs and 4 INTs, while also rushing for 279 yards (two TDs). Arizona is averaging only 21.2 PPG (20th), more than a TD less then San Francisco (29.6 PPG) plus the Cards' D has struggled, ranking 29th in both points allowed (27.9) and yards allowed (407.1).

At first blush, the 49ers are CLEARLY a better team than the Cards. Yes, the Cards won three in a row before their loss to the Saints, but those wins cane over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 3-21). However, the Cards are surely a better team than the Redskins, who at home in Week 7, lost just 9-0 to these 49ers. Aloso looming over this game is the fact that the Cards have beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times, holding San Francisco to 18 points or less in the last FOUR meetings! I'm taking the "big points" with this division home dag!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

This Week 8 SNF game on NBC was expected to be a celebration of two of the NFL's storied franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs, teams that played in the first Super Bowl. The teams feature two transcendent QBs, Aaron Rodgers of Green Bay and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City. However, Mahomes, the NFL's reigning MVP dislocating his kneecap in last week’s 30-6 win at Denver. He remarkably practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday and Thursday but Matt Moore is expected to start in his place. The Packers are atop the NFC Central at 6-1, but the Vikings loom at 6-2. The 5-2 Chiefs have some 'breathing room' in the AFC West, as Oakland is 3-3, while Denver and San Diego lag at 2-5.

Rodgers 'lit up' the Raiders last Sunday, passing for 429 yards and five TDs, plus added a rushing TD in a 42-24 win over Oakland in Green Bay. Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,109 yards with a 13-2 ratio, despite the fact that the team's best WR, Davante Adams (turf toe), has missed the last three games (all GB wins). He’s likely to sit out again on Sunday plus TE Jimmy Graham and WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling are both battling ankle injuries (both are expected to play). Even Rodgers is not 100 percent, as he's playing with a tweaked knee. Rodgers has been effective despite the fact that the Packers have failed to crack 80 rushing yards in FOUR of their seven contests. Green Bay ranks 20th with 99.3 YPG on the ground. The Green Bay D allows 381.0 YPG (26th) but is somehow holding opponents to 19.9 PPG (9th).

Kansas City possesses the No. 3 offense in the league in both points scored (28.9 PPG) and total yards (400.4 YPG). Like Green Bay, KC gets very little from its rushing game, which averages only 82.3 YPG (25th). Of course, without Mahomes (65.1%, averaging 323.1 YPG with a 15-1 ratio), some of the team's offensive prowess will be affected. However, expect KC to get more creative. RBs LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams have more talent than they shown in 2019 plus WR Tyreek Hill is back making 'waves,' while TE Travis Kelce leads the team in receptions (38) and receiving yards (541). Kansas City’s defense has been maligned but the Chiefs have forced turnovers in SIX of their seven contests, including four games with multiple takeaways.

Green Bay has only been a road favorite FOUR times the last two seasons (1st time in 2019 in this contest), going 2-2 SU, with both wins coming in OT. I expect KC to 'circle the wagons' here on this Sunday night game behind Matt Moore. Note that KC has SEVEN players averaging between 13.4 and 17.7 YPC. Moore will be "good enough," here. Take the points but I don't expect we'll need them.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Car Panthers at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 6-0. The 49ers will welcome the Carolina Panthers to San Francisco for this Week 8 contest, as one of two undefeated teams in the league. The Panthers entered 2019 off a 7-9 season and opened 0-2 but Carolina has rallied to win four straight (4-0 ATS).

San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo gets plenty of hype (more in a bit) but what about Carolina's Kyle Allen? He took over for the injured Cam Newton and Allen is the first QB in the Super Bowl era to win his first five starts without throwing an interception (his first start in that stretch came at the end of the 2018 season / 4-0 in 2019). Allen is hardly prolific but he's completing 65.6% for an average of 226.8 YPG with seven TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 106.0. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best all-purpose back in the NFL with 618 rushing yards (4.9 YPC / 7 TDs) and 35 catches for 305 yards (2 TDs). He ranks second in the league in yards from scrimmage (923) and is tied for the NFL lead with nine TDs. Few think of Carolina as an offensive team but the Panthers rank 5th at 27.7 PPG. The team's defensive numbers are middle-of-the-road (22.2 PPG allowed ranks 15th and 344.0 YPG allowed ranks 12th) but Carolina has forced 15 turnovers, second to only New England's 22.

Speaking of defenses, the 49ers' defense is in the midst of a truly dominant stretch. San Francisco is coming off a 9-0 win at Washington and the 49ers have held THREE straight opponents to seven points or less, plus to fewer than 200 total yards (note: SF is only the SIXTH team to do so since 1990!). The 49ers currently rank second in both points allowed (10.7 per) and yards allowed (223.5 per). QB Jimmy Garoppolo keeps getting credit for his record as a starting QB and he should. He was 2-0 in New England subbing for Tom Brady and has now opened 12-2 with San Francisco. However, he's got a modest 19-14 TD-to-INT ratio in his 14 games as the Niners' starting QB, including a 7-6 ratio in 2019, with San Francisco ranking 25th in passing yards (214.5 per) thi season. The San Francisco D and its unsung running game (ranks 2nd at 172.7 YPG with virtual unknowns) has been the real key to the team's success.

Garoppolo is NOT a polished QB (see above numbers TY) and his receiving corps is below average. Meanwhile, the Panthers have taken off since Kyle Allen replaced a hobbled Cam Newton (note: Carolina was 0-8 in Newton’s last eight starts). He is efficient and the Panthers have rallied around him. Carolina is 11-5 as a road dog the last four-plus seasons (2-0 in 2019) and the Panthers have won SIX straight meetings with the 49ers, including a 23-3 victory in their last trip to San Francisco in 2017. It's also possible that the 49ers could be 'peeking ahead' to next Thursday's NFC West game at Arizona. Take the points but I seen an OUTRIGHT win by Carolina.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 1:00 ET.

Few will NOT remember the Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead to the Pats in Super Bowl LI. However, that Atlanta team is a distant memory. The Falcons have lost FIVE in a row and sit 1-6 on the season, well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!). Off a 37-10 home loss to the Rams last Sunday, the Falcons welcome the 5-2 Seattle Seahawks to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Seattle lost at home last week too, 30-16 to the Ravens, ending the Seahawks' three-game winning streak.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is tied for the NFL lead with 15 TD passes and has been intercepted just once while in 230 attempts, while completing 68.3% for 1,945 yards (114.3 QB rating). RB Chris Carson (1,151 yards in 14 games) led the way for a running game that led the NFL in rushing at 160.0 YPG. He's on pace to surpass last season's total (569 yards in seven games) but Seattle is down to 127.0 YPG on the ground (12th). The team's "Legion of Boom" defense is no more but unlike Atlanta, Seattle remains a solid playoff contender.

Atlanta's 'nightmare' season was unforeseen and there is rising speculation that head coach Dan Quinn's job is in real jeopardy. WR Julio Jones spoke out this week saying, "Well, at the end of the day, we're out there on the field. Coach Quinn is not on the field. I don't know as far as defensive calls and things like that, how he does that, but the effort is there. I just feel like us, as competitors and professionals, we can do a better job of going out there and gelling together more." Speaking of results on the field, FOUR of Atlanta's losses have come by 14 or more points. QB Matt Ryan threw for 300 or more yards in each of the team's first six games but that streak ended in last week's loss to the Rams, as Ryan was held to 159 yards before leaving with a sprained right ankle. Ryan's "big numbers" have not helped much, as Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 68.4 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 20.7 PPG (19th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.9 PPG (31st).

Ryan's streak of 154 consecutive starts is in serious jeopardy and it looks as if veteran backup Matt Schaub is being prepared to fill in for Ryan, but he hasn't started a game since 2015 (with Baltimore). Does it really matter? Russell Wilson is likely salivating at the prospect of facing a Falcons defense that has allowed an average of 41.3 points over its last three contests. On the season, Atlanta's pass D is allowing 69.6% completions (3rd-wort in the NFL), while allowing 17 TD passes with just two INTs in 230 pass attmepts (opposing QB rating of 116.3 in an NFL-worst. Then there is Atlanta's non-existent pass rush which has recorded only FIVE sacks. The clincher? The road team (in this case the Seahawks) is a perfect 7-0 ATS in Seattle's seven games in 2019. Can you say 8-0?

Good luck..Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Year is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles 'limp' into Buffalo for a Week 8 game with a 3-4 record, after getting crushed 37-10 in Dallas last Sunday night. Welcoming the Eagles will be the Buffalo Bills, who at 5-1, are off to their best start since the 2008 season.This marks Philly's THIRD straight road game, as prior to the loss to Dallas, Philly lost 38-20 at Minnesota. Philadelphia is 1-3 on the road in 2019, allowing 31.5 PPG. Turnovers have led to slow starts in each of the last two games for the Eagles, who have been outscored 51-17 in the first two quarters in losses to Minnesota and Dallas. Mistakes need to be held to a minimum versus Buffalo, as the Bills rank 3rd in both scoring (15.2 PPG) and overall D (292.7 YPG). The Bills returned from a Week 6 bye to win 31-21 at home vs the winless Dolphins in Week 7.

Carson Wentz is completing 61.3% for 1,649 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs on the season but it's been reported that an anonymous teammate was critical of the QB's play. The criticism is probably fair, as Wentz has committed six turnovers in Philadelphia's three road losses. Wentz has NOT thrown the ball downfield, as the team's top-three pass-catchers, TE Ertz (35) plus WRs Jeffrey (26) and Agholor (25) are averaging only between 9.7 and 11.5 YPC. Philly's running game is just average (111.7 YPG ranks 14th) and its defense has underachieved (26.6 PPG ranks 27th).

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has led his team to a 5-1 start but his numbers are VERY average. He's completing 62.4% for 1,324 yards with as many INTs as TDs (seven each). He's been helped by a running game that averages 135.8 YPG (7th), led by the ageless Frank Gore (388 yards on 4.5 YPC). However, Buffalo is 5-1 because of its defense. Then again, maybe Buffalo is 5-1 because of the competition it has played. Buffalo's lone loss was a a very competitive 16-10 defeat at the hands of unbeaten Pats but look at the team's FIVE wins. The Bills have beaten the Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans and Dolphins. Those five teams owned a combined record of 6-27 (.182).

Considering the competition, are the Bills really a quality team? My bet says N-O! Yes, the Eagles has struggled so far but I'm not about sell them short, just yet. Playing a THIRD straight game on the road is NEVER a positive but after playing at the Vikings and Cowboys, I believe playing at the Bills is a "step down in class." I checked a number of Week 1 NFL power ratings and if Philly had played at Buffalo in Week 1, the Eagles would have been a four to six-point favorite. Take ANY points available but expect the Eagles to win pretty comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Total of the Month is on NYJ/Jax Over at 1:00 ET.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were in Cincinnati last Sunday to take on the winless Bengals. The Jags had forced just ONE turnover in their first six games but got the Bengals to cough up the ball FOUR times, as they snapped a two-game slide with a 27-17 win. The 3-4 Jags return home this Sunday to face the 1-5 Jets, who are coming off an embarrassing 33-0 home loss to the New England Patriots on Monday, a contest in which they turned the ball over SIX times. Seems like the perfect set-up for the Jags to even their record at 4-4.

Sam Darnold made a "triumphant return" for the Jets against Dallas in Week 6, as he led New York to its first win of the season, 24-22. The second-year pro from USC completed 23 of 32 for 338 yards with two TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 113.8. However, his "15 minutes of fame" lasted all of one week, as he completed 11 of 32 for 86 yards with four INTs against the Pats, 'earning' him a QB rating of 3.6. He also lost a fumble plus failed to control a high snap that wound up as a safety for the Pats. To add insult to injury, sideline microphones caught him saying he was "seeing ghosts" after his third INT.. "I just gotta see the field a lot better," Darnold told reporters. "That's kinda what that means. It was a rough day out there, rough night out there, and obviously I gotta be better and learn from the mistakes. But we will get better." Can the Jets get any worse? One positive in the Jets' loss to the Patriots was RB Le'Veon Bell's season-high 70 yards on 15 carries, against a New England defense that ranks 1st in points allowed (6.9 PPG) and total yards allowed (223.1 YPG).

"It's what Jaguar defense is all about," linebacker Myles Jack told reporters after the win at Cincy. "We create turnovers. We play physical. We've been playing good defense. We just haven't been able to get those turnovers that we needed. So, once we're able to create that, I feel like it puts our offense in easier situations, do their thing, and allow them to get into a rhythm. It's a great feeling, man. It's a great feeling to see that ball going the other way." Nick Foles, who suffered a broken clavicle in the first game of the season, finally returned to practice on a limited basis this week but he is not eligible to come off injured reserve until Week 9. That means the QB duties will remain with rookie Gardner Minshew, who has 10 TD passes and just TWO interceptions in six starts. He is completing 61.5 percent of his passes for 1,697 yards. He's ably complemented by a rushing attack averaging 140.1YPG (5th) on 5.1 YPC. The ground game is led by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette, who has 715 yards on 5.0 YPC.

I do NOT see the New York defense, which allows 26.0 PPG (23rd), reigning in Minshew and Fournette. However, I HAVE to believe Darnold is capable of a bounce-back. This over/under is tantalizingly low and just like my Sep Total of the Month (Jax/Den Over 37.5, which ended 26-24), I'm Goin' Over with the Jags in this one against the Jets.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Cal/Utah Over at 10:00 ET.

The Cal Golden Bears opened 4-0 and were ranked 15th in the AP poll when they hosted ASU for a Friday night game on Sep 27. The Bears lost that one 24-17, as starting QB Chase Garbers suffered a shoulder injury. Devon Modster has started the team's last two games, a 17-7 loss at Oregon and 21-7 loss at home to Oregon St, in which Modster was forced to leave in the fourth quarter with an apparent lower-body injury. Utah has opened 7-0 (3-1 in Pac-12 play) with QB Tyler Huntley starting each one. However, he has been unable to finish several contests, including his departure in the third quarter last Saturday with an apparent leg injury. The Bears and Utes meet Saturday night in Sal Lake City with the Bears hoping to avoid a 1-4 start in league play, while the 12th-ranked Utes are battling USC in the Pac-12 South (both are 3-1). There have been no early-week updates on Modster and if can’t play, true freshman Spencer Brasch will make his first start after completing 2-of-6 passes for 24 yards and an interception in the loss to the Beavers. Cal's offense ranks 1116th in both scoring (19.9 PPG) and total yards (324.0 YPG), so I'm not sure the QB situation is all that important. Cal's D is strong, allowing 18.7 PPG (20th) on 359.6 YPG (48th). Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has stuck to the program policy of refusing to comment on player injuries, during his weekly news conference. However, Huntley told the Salt Lake Tribune “I’m playing” following a team weightlifting session Monday. If not, either Drew Lisk or Jason Shelley will get teh nod. I sure want Huntley to play, as he's Pac-12’s top dual-threats. He's leads all Pac-12 QBs with 229 yards rushing (4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and has thrown for 1,564 yards, nine TDs and only one INT. Running back Zack Moss (613 YR / 6.6 YPC / 8 TDs) has been in and out of the lineup all season with assorted injury issues, but the Pac-12’s leading rusher (102.2 yards per game) came back from a brief departure during the contest last Saturday to rush for 99 yards and a pair of TDs. Utah's offense is overlooked because of it's outstanding defense but the Utes are averaging 32.9 PPG (42nd) on 449.4 YPG (32nd). That defense is holding opponents to only 11.7 PPG (6th) on 252.1 YPG (4th). I read a preview of this contest the other day and it began, "Points could be in short supply when No. 12 Utah hosts California in Salt Lake City on Saturday. Both teams have built their identities this season around rugged defenses." The statement is true and while I don't expect an onslaught of points, this over/under number is among the VERY-lowest posted all season in NCAAF 2019. Utah is 4-0 at home this season (averaging 31.2 PPG) and has won EIGHT in a row at Rice-Eccles Stadium, averaging 39.5 PPG in those eight wins. Cal's D is strong but Utah has proven it can consistently put up points at home. Let me add that Cal is on an 8-0 ATS run as a visiting underdog and to cover here, will likely need to score MORE than its seasonal average to keep that ATS run alive. No trading points back and forth here, but since Utah joined the Pac-12 in 2011, these schools have met FOUR times. The average final has totaled 56.3 PPG. Even two TDs less than that would allow us to ca$h here! Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Year is on Michigan at 7:30 ET.

No. 8 Notre Dame looks to stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot when it visits No. 19 Michigan on Saturday. The Fighting Irish lost 23-17 to then-No. 3 Georgia back on Sep 21 but have since won THREE in a row, including a 30-27 victory over USC on Oct 12. To stay in the mix for a second consecutive playoff appearance, Notre Dame MUST win at "The Big House" on Saturday night. "Playing at Michigan is always a great challenge and one that our guys are excited about," Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. "We have to go on the road again and handle all the distractions there and we look forward to a classic matchup."

The Wolverines fell behind 21-0 at Penn St last Saturday night but fought back, although "Big Blue" would ultimately lose, 28-21. Ronnie Bell dropped a pass in the end zone on 4th-and-goal with 2:01 remaining, which would have potentially sent the game to overtime. In the end, it was another "close but no cigar" for Michigan, as the Wolverines fell to 1-10 against top-10 teams under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Michigan is not thinking CFP but it is thinking, "we had better win one of these games, soon!"

RB Tony Jones Jr. racked up a career-high 176 rushing yards in the win against USC to top the 100-yard mark for the third consecutive game. ND's running game rushed for a season-high 311 yards but on the season is averaging a good but not great, 192.0 YPG (41st). QB Ian Book was 17-of-32 for 165 yards and a touchdown to go along with a TD on the ground but as I'll note later, I don't think much of him. Notre Dame's defense is very good, allowing 16.8 PPG (15th) on 348.0 YPG(41st).

Michigan has typically played excellent defense under Harbaugh and this year's unit is allowing 19.0 PPG (21st) on 285.0 YPG (14th). The lack of a consistent offense has been a problem, as Michigan is averaging just 29.0 PPG (68th) on 392.1 YPG (81st). QB Shea Patterson is completing only 57.4% with nine TDs and four INTs but did have his best game of the season at Penn St, going 24-of-41 for 276 yards plus ran for a TD. Freshman RB Zach Charbonnet ran for 81 yards and two TDs against the Nittany Lions and has 457 yards on the season (4.9 YPC & 7 TDs).

These two longtime powerhouses didn't play from 2015-17 but the series was renewed last season when Notre Dame held off a late Michigan surge for a season-opening 24-17 win. My bet says ND is overrated and let me note that QB Book may have a 14-2 ratio through seven games but 10 of his TD passes came against lightweights New Mexico and Bowling Green. Against Georgia, Virginia and USC, he has three TDs, two INTs and has averaged only 201.7 YPG passing. Yes, Michigan has that pathetic record agianst top-10 opponents but I question whether ND is actually a top-10 team. Let me add that here at home, Michigan beat then-No. 14 Iowa 10-3 on Oct 5 and last year, beat then-No. 14 Penn St 42-7 and then-No. 15 Wisconsin 38-13 in "The Big House." Michigan has won 12 straight at home, including going 4-0 at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 31.5-to-11.2. Notre Dame hasn't played in Ann arbor since 2013 but the Fighting Irish have lost SEVEN of their last eight visits to Michigan Stadium. "Big Blue" wins this one in a big way and at least "keeps hope alive" until Ohio St comes to town on Nov 30.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Arizona St at 7:30 ET.

Arizona State is 5-2 and UCLA 2-5 but both teams are 2-2 in Pac-12 play. No. 24 ASU travels to the Rose Bowl on Saturday, looking to bounce back from its worst offensive output in 11 years. Utah ended Arizona State's streak of 125 games with more than 10 points in last Saturday’s 21-3 victory.UCLA opened 0-3 but has gone 2-2 in conference play, after ending an 11-year drought against Stanford by cruising to a 34-16 win against the Cardinal a week ago Thursday.

Utah did not allow Arizona State’s offense to cross midfield in the first half and allowed only 136 yards of total offense for the game. “I told our football team that we’re going to find out a lot about ourselves this next week,” head coach Herm Edwards told reporters. “Utah hit us in the mouth, and they beat us up. Credit to them. The second half of the season will tell us a lot about where we’re at.” Freshman QB Freshman Jayden Daniels threw for 363 yards and recorded four touchdowns in a 38-34 win over Washington State but at Salt Lake City, he was 4-of-18 for 25 yards and an interception. RB Eno Benjamin ran for 104 yards on 15 carries against the Utes, accounting for almost all of ASU's offense. Benjamin ran for 1,632 yards in 2018 (with 16 TDs) but has a more modest 633 yards in 2019. ASU's defense is allowing 18.1 PPG (18th) on 352.7 YPG (43rd).

The Bruins snapped a two-game losing skid with their win over Stanford, as QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson returned after missing one game due to injury and passed for two TDs and ran for another. RB Joshua Kelley ran for 176 yards. The Bruins averaged only 78 YPG rushing in their 0-3 start but they are averaging 221.5 YPG on the ground in their last four contests. Defensively, UCLA ranks 115th in points allowed (34.6 PPG), as well as in total defense, allowing 459.7 YPG.

While it looks as if Oregon has taken control of the Pac-12 North, the South is far from settled. Utah and USC (Trojans play Friday night at Colorado) are tied for the division lead at 3-1 with Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA all a game back at 2-2. The Bruins still face Utah and USC, while the Sun Devils have USC and Arizona remaining on their schedule. I believe ASU is the much better team and ASU already owns road wins over teams ranked at the time of those games (won at then-No. 18 Mich St and at then-No. 15 Cal). UCLA's two wins have come 67-63 at Wash St (Bruins trailed 49-17 in the late 3Q) and over Stanford, which was down to its third-string QB. Chip Kelly is just 5-13 SU since coming to UCLA and unlike Herm Edwards of ASU (12-8 since coming to Tempe, with FOUR wins over ranked opponents), hasn't beaten a ranked team yet. Don't expect that to change here.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Play is on Troy at 7:00 ET.

My 9* NCAAF Underdog Shocker of the Month is on Temple at 7:00 ET.

UCF and Temple are each 5-2, including 2-1 the American Athletic Conference East Division standings. Both UCF and Temple trail Cincinnati by one game in the division, as they get to square off for a key AAC battle. The Knights have alternated wins and losses in their last five games, most recently a 41-28 victory over East Carolina, while tehe Owls are looking to bounce back after absorbing a 45-21 defeat at SMU.

Dillon Gabriel threw two TDs and ran for another score in UCF's win over ECU. The Knights' QB has exactly 2,000 passing yards on the season and an excellent 17-5 ratio. WR Davis has 47 catches for 833 yards with 10 TDs. The running game features four players with 300-plus yards and it averages 212.3 YPG (26th). UCF ranks 5th in scoring (44.3 PPG) on 553.9 YPG 92nd). Defensively, UCF's numbers are solid, allowing 21.7 PPG (39th) on 349.7 YPG (42nd).

Temple was dominated start to finish by SMU and was outgained 457-204 in last Saturday's lopsided loss. The Owls allowed six TD passes and 457 passing yards, leading head coach Rod Carey to say: "There's a lot to fix in all areas. The good news is it's correctable. The bad news is it cost us today." QB Anthony Russo threw for 409 yards in the season opener versus Bucknell but since has not surpassed 300 yards in any game, including efforts of 127, 224 and 171 yards over the last three outings. The good news is that his TD-to-INT ratio is 14-6, after it was 14-14 last season. Even after last week's 'ugly' loss at SMU, Temple's D checks in allowing 22.7 PPG (43rd) on 373.0 YPG (55th).

Most are well aware that UCF went a combined 25-1 in 2017 and 2018 but the 2019 season has been highlighted (low-lighted?) by a trio of streak-enders. UCF lost 35-34 at Pitt on Sep 21, ending the school's 27-game regular season win streak and then on Oct 4th at Cincy, UCF's streak of 19 straight AAC wins came to and, as did its streak of scoring 30 points or more in 32 straight game, as the Bearcats won 27-24. Temple has proven it can bounce back off a loss and the Owls are 4-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 32.5-to-14.8 PPG). Temple also checks in 8-1 ATS (89% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. As noted above, this 2019 UCF edition does NOT compare to the 2017 or 2018 ones. Take the points and look for a possible SU win by Temple!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Pittsburgh at 12:00 ET.

Many thought that Miami's 17-9 win over then-No. 20 Virginia on Oct 11 was a "turning" point in the 'Canes season but just eight days later, Miami lost 28-21 (in OT) at home to Ga Tech as an 18-point favorite. That's the same Ga Tech team that lost at home (as a four-TD favorite) to The Citadel on Sep 14, an FCS team. The Hurricanes visit Pittsburgh on Saturday to face a surging Panthers team which has rebounded from a season-opening 30-14 home loss to Virginia. Pitt has won FIVE of six since that defeat, falling only 17-10 at Penn St (as a 17-point dog), which is currently the AP's No. 6 team. Pitt has won FOUR in a row since the Penn St loss, going 3-1 ATS.The home team has won THREE straight in this series, after the visitor had won FIVE in a row.

Manny Diaz may be in his first season as Miami's head coach but he already finds himself on the proverbial "hot seat," after last weekend's 28-21 overtime loss to a Georgia Tech. "I’ll take the negativity. I’m responsible for it, and I’ll accept it,” Diaz said Monday in a press conference. "And it sucks that we’re having to go through this. No one’s more disappointed in our record than I am. But I am also as confident as ever that this team will continue to stick together and this team will continue to fight for one another. And the results are going to come." QB Perry completed 16-of-28 passes for 188 yards and two TDs to go along with a rushing score last Saturday but both he and freshman Jarren Williams, who beat out Perry for the starting job in fall camp, are nursing shoulder injuries and it's uncertain who will start Saturday. The passing game is NOT Miami's biggest concern, as the two QBs have combined to average 279.6 YPG through the air (29th). However, the running games adds little help, averaging 131.0 YPG (102nd) on 4.1 YPC. The defensive numbers look good (20.4 PPG ranks 29th and 298.3 YPG ranks 19th) but the bottom line is that Minmi is 3-4 overall, including 1-3 in the ACC.

Meanwhile, Pitt is 2-1 in the ACC Coastal, trailing only 3-1 Virginia. The head-to-head loss to the Cavs could cost Pitt in the end but the Panthers have set their sights on a second straight Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division title. Pitt upset UCF 35-34 (as a 9-point home dog) back on Sep 21 plus its last two games has won ACC contests 33-30 over Duke and 27-0 over Syracuse, BOTH on the road! Pittsburgh raised its FBS-best sack total to 36 with nine against Syracuse, while QB Kenny Pickett passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns in last Friday's 27-20 win. Like Miami, Pitt has moved the ball through the air (270.3 YPG ranks 36th) but Pitt's running game is even worse than Miami's, averaging 120.6 YPG (109th) on just 3.4 YPC. Pitt's D pretty much matches Miami's, allowing 22.1 PPG (41st) on 302.9 YPG (21st).

A victory over the Hurricanes would give Pitt five consecutive wins for the first time since 2009, when Dave Wannstedt's Panthers reeled off six straight. As for Miami, it is proving just as unreliable for Manny Diaz as it was for Mark Richt (FYI...Diaz served on Richt's staff). I noted above that Pitt won the ACC Coastal title last season but will add that the Panthers will NOT forget the 'Canes trouncing them 24-3 in Miami on Nov 24. That was Pitt's final game of the regular season and it came AFTER Pitt had already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh (in 2017's regular-season finale), it was ranked No. 2 in the country but lost 24-14 in Pickett's first start. Pittsburgh is a team in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, while with Miami, it's just the opposite. Pitt has lost to Penn St just 17-10 (Nittany Lions are averaging 40.0 PPG) and beat UCF, ending that team's 27-game regular season winning streak. It's Homecoming for Pitt and I expect the Panthers to roll. Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET.

There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later)..

The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?).

The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014.

OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points.

The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters.

Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st).

Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!).

Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider at 1:00 ET.

The New York Giants opened the season with a 35-17 loss at Dallas and then a 28-14 home loss to the Bills. New York then decided it was time to bench Eli and give rookie QB Daniel Jones the starting job. Jones was outstanding in the Giants' 32-31 win at Tampa Bay (326 passing yards with two TDs and two rushing TDs) and backed that victory up with a 24-3 home win over the Redskins. However, the Vikings beat the Gianst 28-10 In Week 5 and the Pats beat them 35-14 in Week 6. Jones struggled in both losses, completing just 52.2% for an average of 171.5 YPG with two TDs and four INTs. The 2-4 Giants welcome the 2-3-1 Arizona Cardinals to MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Rookie QB Kyler Murray put on quite a performance as Arizona edged winless Cincinnati 26-23 in Week 5 on the road. He threw for 253 yards while running for 93 of the team's season-high 266 yards on the ground (also had a TD run). The reigning Heisman Trophy winner then threw for 340 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's thrilling 34-33 home win over Atlanta.

Murray was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 Draft, has started every game, and has the Cardinals on a two-game winning streak. He is an exceptional athlete who can beat teams with feet or his arm. Helping Murray out has been the team's rushing game, as the Cardinals have developed a versatile and productive two-man backfield with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds. Johnson is no longer an All-Pro like in 2016 but he has had at least 100 total yards in each of his past three games. His 30 catches for 315 yards both rank second on the team. His three receiving TDs rank first (note: he's on pace for a career-high 90 catches). Edmonds is a second-year player and he has 161 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and has caught eight passes, including one for a TD. Defensively, the Cards have struggled, allowing 28.5 YPG (29th) on 411.0 YPG (30th). Arizona should get a boost with the return of eight-time Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson, who served a six-game suspension to begin the season, but how quickly he can make a difference is TBD.

Jones was the sixth pick of the 2019 Draft and while he is not as much of a runner as Murray, he has energized the offense with his ability to extend plays and throw accurate strikes. The Giants are well-rested (last played at New England in a Thursday night affair Oct 10) and expect to have star RB Saquon Barkley back on the field when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Barkley's high ankle sprain has healed enough for him to get back to full participation in practice this week. "No doubt in my mind," Barkley told reporters Thursday when asked if he felt that his ankle, which has caused him to miss three games, would hold up in a game. TE Evan Engram (knee) could also return after missing the loss to the Patriots.

Yes, the Cards have won two straight but the wins were over 0-6 Cincinnati and 1-5 Atlanta. It's more than just a little noteworthy that the Cards have blown 14 and 17-point leads past two weeks, respectively. The Cards beat the Bengals on a 31-yard FG as time expired and escaped with a one-point win over Atlanta when the Falcons missed a game-tying extra-point. Yes, the Giants have lost two straight but the loses have come against the 4-2 Vikings and 6-0 Pats. Arizona's win at Cincy in Week 5 marked just the team's SECOND win in its last 11 played in the Eastern Time Zone. This will mark Arizona's furthest trip of the 2019 season and a healthier Giants team will "make them pay!"

Good luck..Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Cin Over at 1:00 ET.

Rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked very ordinary during the Jaguars' 13-6 loss to New Orleans last Sunday, as Jacksonville was held to a season-low 226 yards and just a pair of FGs. Minshew entered last Sunday's contest completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 255.8 YPG with nine TDs and just one INT. However, he went just 14 of 29 for only 163 yards without a TD pass and had one interception. The good news for Minshew is, the last three QBs who faced the Bengals had career days (see below). RB Leonard Fournette is healthy in 2019 (584 YR / 5.1 YPC and 26 catches for 189 yards) and he registered 118 yards from scrimmage last week to join Cleveland's Nick Chubb as the only players in the NFL with at least 85 in each of their first six games this season. Jacksonville's defense is allowing 21.8 PPG (13th) on 372.7 YPG (23rd).

Brandon Wilson got the Bengals off to a good start last Sunday, returning the opening kickoff 92 yards for a TD, but the team was unable to find the end zone again until late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of each of their last three games. QB Andy Dalton is completing 61.7% for 1,647 yards with seven TDs and five INTs plus gets NO help from a running game averaging an NFL-low 56.5 YPG. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 286.5 PPG (26th) on 426.0 YPG (31st).

The Bengals won't go 0-16, right? However, I'm not sure this is a the game they'll get a "W." Expect a bounce-back game from Minshew, against a very porous Cincy defense. After all, Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards (236) and rush for 150 (152) in a single game last week against the Bengals. The prior week, Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards without an interception and in Cincy's Week 4 MNF game against the Steelers, Mason Rudolph threw for a career high 229 yards with two TDs. Also, RB Fournette gets to run against a Cincy rush D that ranks 32nd by allowing 184.5 YPG on 5.3 YPC (also ranks last in the NFL). The Jags will score against this D and look for Cincy's Dalton to "air it out." He has a non-existent running game, so what's Plan B? This game goes OVER this modest number easily.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Memphis at 7:00 ET.

A pair of 5-1 teams square off Saturday night in Memphis, as the Tulane Green Wave visit the Memphis Tigers. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave are well on their way to a second straight winning season, losing only on the road at now-No. 11 Auburn 24-6 back on Sep 7.

When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowls but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011. Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Memphis opened the 2019 season 5-0 and entered last week's game at Temple ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. However, the Tigers lost 30-28, as a 3 1/2-point favorite.

Both schools play in the AAC-West, where Tulane is tied with SMU at 2-0 and Memphis is tied with Navy at 1-1. Tulane is led by its No.4-ranked rushing game, which averages 288.0 YPG. The Green Wave have great depth at RB but Dauphine leads the way with 364 yards on a WHOPPING 11.0 YPC! Overall, the offense is averaging 39.2 PPG (16th) on 496.3 YPG (13th). The defense has played well, allowing 19.2 PPG (26th) on 326.3 YPG (32nd).

Temple has an edge at the QB position with Brady White (69.9% with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs) plus RB Gainwell has run for 726 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. The offense almost matches Tulane in averaging 37.8 PPG (21st) on 466.22 YPG (27th).The defense is good, allowing 21.0 PPG (38th) on 347.2 YPG (44th).

Tulane comes in on a four-game winning streak (SU & ATS) but the Green Wave face THREE tough road games over their next four league contests, Saturday at Memphis, at Navy on Oct 26 and at Temple on Nov 16. Memphis has been tough to beat at home since the beginning of 2014, going 31-5 SU. Expect the Tigers to bounce back off their first loss of 2019 with a "comfortable" home win(meaning a cover!) in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Kentucky /Georgia Over at 6:00 ET.

My 10* Big-12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 4:00 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Rhule has Baylor off to a 6-0 start and the Bears are currently in the AP poll. Baylor is off to a 3-0 start in the Big 12 but have been VERY lucky. The Bears blew a 20-0 lead in their Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining for the win.The Bears made it EIGHT straight wins dating to 2018 last Saturday but were again fortunate after benefiting greatly from a false start call in their 33-30 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Bears drove 97 yards to get the tying FG on the final play of regulation (Mayers came through again) and then won it with a TD in the 2nd OT.

Mike Gundy is in his 15th season at Oklahoma St and this is clearly NOT one of his better teams. The Cowboys are 4-2 (1-2 in Big 12 play). OSU opened 3-0 but has lost TWO of its last three games. The Cowboys lost a competitive 36-30 decision at Texas (as a 7-point dog) on Sep 21 for their first loss of the season, then beat Kan St 26-13 at home, before losing 45-35 at Texas Tech on Oct 5th as a 9-point road favorite. Baylor had its hands full with Texas Tech last Saturday at home, as junior QB Charlie Brewer threw his first three interceptions of the season. However, he ran for three TDs, including one in overtime. He's completing 65.4% with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, as Baylor ranks 34th in the nation with 276.3 YPG passing. The running game is solid (199.2 YPG on 5.6 YPC), helping Baylor average 37.8 PPG (20th). The Baylor D is solid, allowing 17.8 PPG (17th).

Spencer Sanders (63.3 percent, 1,333 yards, 10 TDs, eight INTs) needs only 296 yards to break the freshmen school record for passing yards in a season .However, he hardly seems in the same class as OSU's last two QBs, Cornelius and Rudolph, who threw for a combined 97 TDs with just 26 INTs the previous three seasons. However, sophomore RB Chuba Hubbard has more rushing yards than any player in the nation, checking in with 1,094 on 6.8 YPC with 13 TDs. OSU ranks 7th in the nation with 279.0 YPG on the ground (5.6 YPC), helping them average 39.8 PPG (11th). The defense is a worry though, allowing 27.5 PPG (71st).

Noting all of the above, Baylor's first three wins of 2019 came over FCS SF Austin (1-5), UTSA (2-4) and Rice (0-6) plus the Bears have been extremely fortunate to win TWO of their three Big-12 contests (see above). Oklahoma St has had a week to stew after it was ambushed at Lubbock on Oct 5 and returns to Stillwater for its Homecoming Game. What's more, the Cowboys will surely remember Baylor beating them 35-31 last season in Waco on a 6-yard TD pass to with SEVEN seconds remaining in the game. REVENGE works and Baylor's eight-game winning streak (6-0 start in 2019), ends!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Washington at 3:30 ET.

Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning FIVE in a row (including a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play) and have outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG. That's right, Oregon has allowed just 25 points in its five-game winning streak, holding five consecutive opponents to single-digit point totals for the first time since 1958. However, the Ducks now must visit their border rival the Washington Huskies. Washington is off a 51-27 blowout of Arizona, but the 5-2 Huskies are just 2-2 in Pac-12 play. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but come into this contest having just climbed back into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday.

Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick. He completing 69.1% with 17 TDs and just one INT and has thrown a TD pass in 34 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (176.8 YPG ranks 56th). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG on 461.0 YPG, ranking 30th in both categories. As noted above, the defense is spectacular, allowing 8.7 PPG (3rd) on 267.7 YPG (8th).

Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's not in Herbert's class but he's completing 66.0% with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of which whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (522 RY / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) which averages 179.1 YPG (53rd). Washington is averaging 36.4 PPG (29th) and most teams would be happy allowing 19.6 PPG (28th) on 363.6 YPG (50th) but in this case, the Huskies' D is being compared to the Ducks'.

Both schools play in the Pac-12 North, so Oregon can all but clinch the title here with a win. The Oregon D is 'nasty' (has allowed just one TD over its opponents' last 63 drives while also forcing 21 three-and-outs during that span) but winning at Husky Stadium will NOT be easy. What's more, Washington is a home dog for the first time since 2015. From 2016 through 2019, Washington has played 25 home games, going 23-2 SU. The Huskies lost to USC at home in 2016 and had won 15 straight home games before losing 20-19 to Cal on Sep 7. The Cal game was delayed more than 2 1/2 hours by severe weather, with the Bears winning on a FG with EIGHT seconds left. I'm saying the home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on La Tech at 3:30 ET.

Southern Miss heads to Ruston, La on Saturday to take on La Tech in a C-USA action. The two schools are both 2-0 in league play with the Golden Eagles sitting at 4-2 on the season and the Bulldogs checking in at 5-1. Southern Miss saw a three-year bowl streak end in 2018 (went just 6-5) but is hoping to get back to 'bowling' in 2019. Fact is, the team's two losses this season have come on the road against two SEC schools, Miss St and Alabama. The Golden Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back home wins,31-13 over UTEP and 45-27 over North Texas. As for La Tech, the Bulldogs opened the 2019 season with a 45-14 loss at Texas but have since won FIVE in a row.

Southern Miss is led by QB Jack Abraham who has completed almost 71.6% of his passes for 1,936 yards, with 12 TD’s and four INTs. The Golden Eagles rank 6th in passing (331.2 YPG) but the team's leading rusher has just 279 yards and is averaging a woeful 113.5 YPG on the ground (115th). That said, Southern Miss is averaging 30.5 PPG (57th). The defense is allowing 29.8 PPG (91st) on 388.2 YPG (66th).

La Tech QB J’Mar Smith threw three TD passes and RB Justin Henderson ran for three first-quarter TDs to power Louisiana Tech to a 69-21 victory over Massachusetts last Saturday. Smith is completing 63.8% for 1,557 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs on the season. Henderson has 478 yards rushing, while averaging a healthy 8.2 YPC (has eight TDs). Tech's offense is averaging 34.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (25th). On the defensive side of the ball, despite allowing 45 points at Texas, La Tech checks into this game allowing a modest 23.0 PPG (45th).

The winner of this one takes a big step towards representing the West in C-USA's title game and I'm "all over" La Tech. The Bulldogs come in on a five-game winning streak and will surely remember therir bitter losses to the Golden Eagles the last two seasons. Southern Miss eked out a 21-20 win at home in 2018 and in 2017, won here in Ruston 34-27 in two OTs. Expect the Bulldogs to "get it right' this time around.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Florida at 12:00 ET.

My 10* Friday Night Lights G.O.M. is on FAU at 6:30 ET.

Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin has turned things around quickly though, winning FOUR in a while averaging 39.0 PPG.

4-2 FAU welcomes 3-3 Marshall to Boca Raton for a Friday game in C-USA play. FAU (2-0) and Marshall (1-1) were the East's two-favorites in the preseason but Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd are struggling in 2019, going 1-5 ATS. The team's lone ATS win came way back on Sep 6, when Marshall (+14) lost 14-7 at Boise St. QB Green is struggling, with just two TD passes in his last three games, passing for only 131 and 175 yards in two of those three contests. Marshall has lost both road games this season, at Boise St (see above) and 24-13 at MTSU on Oct 5. The game at MTSU is noteworthy, as Marshall scored just 13 points on a defense allowing 32.7 PPG (107th) on 494.7 YPG (126th).

FAU just beat MTSU 28-13 at home last Saturday, despite playing its worst offensive game since being outclassed by Ohio St and UCF to open the 2019 season. However, while Marshall's QB is struggling, FAU's Robinson has thrown for 1,557 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs. If freshman RB Davidson (149 rushing yards v. MTSU) continues to develop, FAU may just be the team to beat in the East (Western Ky has opened 3-0 and hosts FAU on Nov 2). Getting back to the current situation, the Owls are 13-4 SU at home under Kiffin (13 wins have come by an average of 24.6 PPG) and this modest impost should be no problem against a Marshall team which has scored just 20 points in its only two road games of 2019. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee.

Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th).

The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives."

Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Dal/NJY Over at 4:25 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week."

QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.”

The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th).

However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The Dallas D has been good this season but I'm expecting the Jets to be able to move the ball and score. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I do believe this is a GREAT spot to play this contest OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd).

Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2).

Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1.

Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals visited the Bengals in Week 5 sitting 0-3-1 on the season and hadn't won in Cincinnati in 12 years. What's more, Arizona had won just ONCE in its last 10 games played in the Eastern Time Zone. The good news was, the 0-4 Bengals were in worse shape than the Cards. Rookie QB Kyler Murray put on quite a performance last Sunday, throwing for 253 yards while running for 93 of the team's season-high 266 yards on the ground (he had a TD run). Arizona edged winless Cincinnati 26-23, giving the Cardinals their first win of the season. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw for 330 yards to join Steve Young (1998), Kurt Warner (2000), Peyton Manning (2009 and 2013) and Patrick Mahomes (2019) as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team's first five games of a season. However, the Falcons lost 53-32 at Houston, falling to 1-4 on the season (0-3 on the road).

Atlanta has spent a week in the desert after getting beaten at Houston, as the Falcons chose not to fly home after the loss. Instead, Atlanta flew directly from Houston to Phoenix and practiced this past week on Arizona State's campus.Sure, Ryan can put up huge numbers but in a few short seasons, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 28th in rushing at 67.6 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). Atlanta's defense is a mess (30.4 PPG allowed ranks 31st) and enters this contest having lost two safeties to injury while the team's non-existent pass rush could not sack Deshaun Watson even ONCE last Sunday (Watson had been sacked 18 times through his first four games).

Murray was the first overall pick of the 2019 Draft but so far, he's led an offense that looks great in the middle of the field but has bogged down in the red zone. Arizona ranks eighth in the NFL with 22 scoring drives this season but the problem is that 14 of those drives ended with FGs instead of TDs. However, Murray was superb during the Cardinals' game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter last Sunday, igniting it with a 24-yard pass and running for another 24 yards a few plays later, after his intended receiver slipped. Murray became the first rookie QB since Tennessee's Marcus Mariota in 2015 to throw for 250 yards and run for 90 in a game. He currently leads all first-year QBs in passing yards with 1,324. Arizona's had its issues on defense this season (27.6 PPG ranks 28th) but the Cardinals are tied for the NFL lead with 11 forced fumbles.

The Cardinals got their first taste of winning last Sunday (on the road, no less) and winning is contagious. However, so is losing. The record book tells us that is was just three years ago (the 2016 season), when the Falcons were playing in the Super Bowl and led the Pats 28-3 in the third quarter. However, that seems like 'light years' ago right now. Atlanta has gone 0-3 SU & ATS on the road this season (allowing 36.0 PPG). Going back to the start of the 2017 season, the Falcons have gone 4-15 ATS on the road, which is a 79% ATS "go-against!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards.

Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th).

Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks.

My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick).

Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times!

Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game.

I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably.

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Total of the Week is on Navy/Tulsa Over at 7:30 ET.

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on Iowa at 7:30 ET.

Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) will take its 12-game winning streak (second to only Clemson's 20 straight wins) and its No. 10 ranking in the current AP poll into Iowa City to take on No. 17 Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) Saturday night. The Nittany Lions' CFP hopes will likely depend on how they perform during a critcal three- week stretch which begins this Saturday. Penn St will follow this contest with a home date with No. 16 Michigan and then a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St. Iowa is likely not seriously thinking o about the CFP but the Hawkeyes have surely NOT tabled hopes of winning the Big Ten West. However, with Wisconsin and Minnesota off to 2-0 stars, Iowa almost HAS to win this one (will play at Wisconsin and then host Minnesota in Nov).

Penn State sophomore QB Sean Clifford ranks second among Big Ten passers with 1,443 yards and is third with 12 TD passes (just two INTs in 135 pass attempts). A running-back-by-committee approach (four backs have run for at least 198 yards) is averaging 194.6 YPG (43rd) on 5.4 YPC. Penn St is averaging 47.0 YPPG (5th) on 500.2 YPG (11th). Iowa's offense could not score a TD last week at Michigan, as QB Nate Stanley (who entered the game with eight TD passes and zero INTs), threw three INTs. Stanley, who needs just one TD pass to move into a tie for second in school history, is unlikely to forget that he completed only 18-of-49 passes while throwing two interceptions and getting sacked three times in a 30-24 oss at Penn State last year. However, much like Penn St, Iowa's running game (174.2 YPG on 5.2 YPC) has three players with more than 200 rushing yards. Stanley also has a quartet of receivers all with at least 190 receiving yards.

The Nittany Lions have won FIVE straight meetings with the Hawkeyes but note that last season at Penn St, Stanley (who had an awful game / see above) threw a pick at Penn State's goal line with 3:18 left, as the Nittany Lions survived 30-24. The year before (at Iowa), Penn State scored a TD on the game's final play, winning 21-19 on a walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley. Yes, Penn St has won FIVE in a row but prior to that, the Hawkeyes had won EIGHT of nine in the series, including a last-second 24-23 win in 2008 that knocked Penn State out of the national title chase.

Deja vu? Iowa's QB in that 2008 game, Ricky Stanzi, is the team's honorary captain this week. Iowa (especially its defense) will be Penn St's toughest opponent to-date and the Nittany Lions hardly impressed against the team's toughest opponent up to this point. Back on Sep 14, Penn St (-17) barely eked out a 17-10 win against Pittsburgh (was held to just 389 yards). Yes, Penn State's defense is allowing 7.4 PPG (2nd) on 240.4 YPG (4th) but Iowa's D is "right there" with them, allowing just 8.8 PPG (3rd) on 255.0 YPG (5th). Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS a home dog since late 2000 and I'm expecting an OUTRIGHT win in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on Nevada t 4:00 ET.

Nevada began 2019 with a home upset by beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. I guess the best news here is that the Nevada had a bye the first weekend of October. Nevada will welcome San Jose St to Reno on Saturday. The Spartans come in off a 32-21 win over New Mexico, giving them a 3-2 record. That may not seem like a big deal but when one considers the Spartans were 2-11 in 2017 and 1-11 in 2018, it is.

QB Josh Love threw for 405 yards in the win over New Mexico and enters this contest completing 61.9% for 1,418 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. However, the Spartans don't have much of a running game, averaging only 105.8 YPG (119th) on a woeful 3.4 YPC. San Jose is scoring 27.6 PPG, while allowing 27.6. Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii. However, the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.8 PPG (115th) on 331.2 YPG (114th).

It's true that San Jose St has made some significant strides in 2019 but the Spartans come into this contest just 1-14 SU on the road since the beginning of 2017. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-28 SU since 2005 plus has beaten San Jose St in NINE of the last 10 meetings (note: San Jose hasn’t won SU in Reno since 2000!). At this price, the home team is the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC ATTACK 2 is on Ohio U at 3:30 ET.

Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but then lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 21 and entered that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns. The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and opened their MAC schedule at Buffalo last Saturday. The Bobcats and Buffs were tied at 14 and went to OT. Buffalo scored first but missed the PAT. Ohio gave the ball to RB Allison on all five of its plays in overtime and won it 21-20 on his five-yard TD run and a successful PAT, Ohio (2-3 / 1-0 MAC) returns home to host Northern Illinois.

The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seassons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. So far, NOT so good . Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies have lost FOUR in a row, since. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies rank 42nd in passing (266.2 YPG) but QB Ross Bowers is completing just 56.9% with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The running game stinks, averaging 97.4 YPG (122nd). The defense allows a relatively modest 363.4 YPG (49th) but gives up 28.0 PPG (78th).

Ohio OB Nathan Rourke was expecting a big season after passing for 2,431 yards (with 23 TD passes) and rushing for 860 yards (with 15 TDs) in 2018. However, he's got just 250 rushing yards (3 TDs) and 1,012 passing yards (6 TDs) so far in 2019. Ohio's D is allowing 27.6 PPG (74th) on 446.8 YPG (108th). The Bobcats have disappointed so far but they are 1-0 in MAC play and just maybe, last Saturday's OT win is what the team needed to jump-start its MAC season. Northern Illinois in 2019 looks NOTHING like past editions (12 bowls the last 15 seasons) and its lone with has come over Illinois St, an FCS member. NIU is 0-3 on the road, getting outscored on average, 34.3-to-14.3 PPG. Remember, before losing at home to ULL on Sep 21, Ohio had won 10 straight at home, averaging 47.0 PPG. Let's not count out Ohio U just yet in its quest for its first MAC title since 1968,. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

The Tigers travel to Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa) this Saturday to take on fellow AAC rival Temple. The Owls entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six year as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. In Temple's second game of 2019, the Owls upset then-No. 21 Maryland 20-17 (as five-point home dog), one week after the Terps had ripped Syracuse for 63 points. Temple suffered a let down of its own the following Saturday, losing 38-22 at Buffalo, as a two-TD road favorite. However, the Owls have rebounded to beat Georgia Tech (24-2) and East Carolina (27-17) in their last two games, allowing an average of just 316 yards per game in the two victories

Memphis QB Brady White threw three TD passes and RB Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 209 rushing yards and two scores in the Tigers' 52-33 win last Saturday. The Memphis offense (39.8 PPG ranks 16th) owns excellent balance, passing for 246.6 YPG (65th) and rushing for 214.4 YPG (32nd). White is completing 71.7% (11-3 ratio) and Gainwell has 620 rushing yards (8.2 YPC and 6 TDs). The defense is allowing 19.2 PPG (27th) on 325.4 YPG (35th). Temple is averaging 29.8 PPG (68th) on 445.2 YPG (35th) but neither QB Russo (58.9% with an 11-6 ratio) nor RB Davis (563 RY / 6.0 YPC / 4 TdD) are quite as good as their Memphis counterparts (While and Gainwell). However, the Temple D is every bit as good, and slightly better than Memphis', allowing 17.2 PPG (19th) on 292.8 YPG (20th).

This is a tough spot for Memphis, as QB White will be facing the best D he's seen all year (he under-performed vs Ole Miss out of the SEC), as Temple ranks 3rd in pass efficiency. Temple's Russo has a strong arm and is off his first error-free game of season in the 27-17 win at East Carolina (23-34 for 208 yards with one TD and zero INTs) plus RB Davis ran for 157 yards (6.5 YPC). The Memphis D is in for a test. Temple is 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 33.3-to-10.3 PPG) and checks in 7-1 ATS (88%) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. This Memphis team may be 5-0 and ranked 23rd but it is NOT in the class of that 2017 UCF team. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Colorado St at 8:00 ET.

The 1-5 Colorado State Rams (0-2 in MWC play) travel to Albuquerque to face the 2-3 New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium on Friday night. Former Georgia QB Mike Bobo took over at CSU in 2015, getting his first head coaching job. He led the Rams to three straight 7-6 seasons but each one ended with a bowl loss. The 2018 season was a 'disaster,' as CSU went just 3-9, its worst record since 2011. Clearly, the team's 1-5 start has CSU backers worried. As for New Mexico, Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos have opened the 2019 season 2-3 (0-1 in MWC play)

CSU is almost assured of a second straight losing season but the team's 1-5 record is somewhat deceiving. The Rams opened 2019 against in-state rival Colorado of the Pac-12, and following a win over Western Illinois, the Rams have faced the SEC’s Arkansas, 4-1 Toledo, and solid MWC schools Utah State (3-2) and San Diego State (4-1). Starting QB Collin Hill (67.5% & an 8-2 ratio) was lost for the season to a knee injury in the game at Arkansas but back-up Patrick O'Brien rallied the team from a 14-point, first half deficit to tie it at 34-all (Arkansas would win the 4Q, 21-0). However, O'Brien has thrown for 839 yards in his three starts (279.7 YPG). New Mexico got blasted 66-14 at Notre Dame (Welcome Back, Dave) and its lone two wins in 2019 have come at home against Sam Houston State (FSC) and 0-6 New Mexico St (one of three winless teams in 2019). New Mexico owns a solid running game (212.4 YPG ranks 33rd) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 39.6 PPG (126th) on 513.8 YPG (127th).

CSU badly needs a win and New Mexico St sets up as the perfect foil. The Rams have beaten the Lobos NINE straight times (average margin of victory being a right at two TDs), including all SEVEN since Davie took over in 2012 (6-1 ATS). Want more? The Lobos are 2-15 SU in MWC game since the start of 2017. There is a reason this 1-5 team is a road favorite!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SBC Game of the Month is on ULL at 8:00 ET.

The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008. The Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 4-0 Mountaineers travel to Louisiana-Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns in Sun Belt Conference action on Wednesday. App St is 4-0 and owns the third-longest active winning streak in CFB at 10 in a row, while ULL checks in at 4-1 (both schools are 1-0 in SBC play).

This is a rematch of last year's SBC championship game, won by Appalachian State at home, 30-19 (the Mountaineers also won at home in the regular season, 27-17). App St owns a very balanced offense, averaging 204.8 YPG passing and 224.5 YPG rushing (47.0 PPG, 5th-best in the nation). QB Zac Thomas has completed 71.9% for 802 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 14-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to those 10 straight wins! The defense allows 420.0 YPG (94th) and 29.0 PPG (86th) but when a team is scoring 47.0 PPG, that can be overlooked.

The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44,4 4 PPG (9th-best), led by the nation's top rushing offense. ULL averages 314.0 YPG on a WHOPPING 7.3 YPC. It has two VERY dangerous backs, Ragas (548 yards / 9.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mitchell (402 yards / 6.0 YPC / 9 TDs). The defense allows a more modest 24.1 PPG (41st) and features a very athletic secondary. ULL opened the season by losing 38-28 to Miss St in the Superdome (covered as a 19-point dog) but has since gone 4-0 SU & ATS.

Yes, ULL has lost all six meetings with App St since 2014 (including two last season) but the matchups favor them in this one. ULL’s athletic secondary ranks 13th nationally in pass defense efficiency and Appalachian State QB Zac Thomas could (should) have problems. App State’s defense hasn’t played well, allowing 109 points its last three games (36.3 PPG), to Charlotte, UNC and Coastal Carolina and overall, ranks 117th in red zone D. The team's rush D will be severely tested by ULL's top-ranked rushing attack. The last time App St lost a league game was Oct 25, 2018 at Georgia Southern (34-14), when the Eagles ran for 277 yards (5.5 YPC). The Ragin' Cajuns are the ONLY school of 130 playing in the FBS to be unbeaten ATS (5-0). Expect ULL to control the ball and clock and finally break through vs Appalachian State, keeping the team's perfect ATS mark in tack.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* SNF Magic is on the Ind Colts at 8:20 ET.

The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs are one of three undefeated teams in the NFL and host the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts is the SNF Week 5 game. It's a rematch of an AFC Divisional Round matchup last season, when KC defeated the Colts 31-13 (marking KC's first home playoff win in 25 years!). Of course, Andrew Luck was Indy's QB in that one but his abrupt retirement means it will be Jacoby Brissett  going up against Patrick Mahomes.

Truth is, Indianapolis hasn’t fallen off too far offensively with Brissett at the Helm. He's completing 65.2% for 911 yards with 10 TDs and just two INTs (102.1 QB rating). He's also been able to rely on a very improved running game, which ranks 7th by averaging 132.5 YPG on 4.6 YPC. Marlon Mack has been especially effective, rushing for 338 yards (4.7 YPC). Indy's D is middle-of-the-pack and it's hard seeing them slowing down Mahomes, too much. He's completing 67.9% for 1,510 yards with 10 TDs and zero INTs (120.4 QB rating). All this, despite the absence of speedster Tyreek Hill (he returned to practice this week). With or without Hill, Mahomes has plenty of weapons, as SEVEN players have at least eight receptions and FIVE have caught TD passes. However, the KC defense is still vulnerable, allowing 408.5 YPG (30th).

Yes, the Chiefs have scored 25 or more points in an NFL-record 25 consecutive games but their D has allowed 58 points over the last two games. Brissett is much better than many think (he's the only QB with at least two passing TDs in each of his team’s first four contests this season). With Indy's improved running game (see above), expect Mack and Co. to move the ball easily on a KC defense than not only ranks 31st in allowing 149.8 YPG on the ground but ranks LAST in allowing a whopping 6.0 YPC! Indy's two losses have come by a total of 13 points, with one of the defeats occurring in overtime.Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My AFC 10* Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET.

The Buffalo Bills opened the season 3-0, before suffering their first loss last Sunday at home, 16-10 to the Pats. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw three interceptions against New England last week, as the Bills offense did very little. However, the Buffalo D held the defending-champion Patriots to just 224 yards. Brday had just 150 yards passing, was held without a TD pass despite 39 attempts and was interecpeted once (QB rating of 45.9!). Buffalo held the Pats to juts 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC) and will visit Nashville allowing 15.8 PPG (5th) on 280.8 YPG (2nd). Allen got knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit when he failed to slide on a running play and has spent the week in concussion protocol.He had completed 64.1 percent of his passes during the 3-0 start before going 13-of-28 against the Pats. The ageless Frank Gore (he needs 249 rushing yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the all-time list) ran for 109 yards and the Bills are averaging 147.2 YPG on the ground (4th).

The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons and shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1. However, the Titans have been searching for consistency for far too long. They lost 19-17 at home to Indy in Week 2 and in Week 3 lost 20-7 at Jacksonville, before winning 24-10 last Sunday in Atlanta. QB Marcus Mariota has been no paragon of consistency but he's completing 62.2% with seven TDs and not a single interception in 119 attempts (106.2 QB rating). Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. The Tennessee D defense returned nine of 11 starters from 2018 and is currently allowing 15.5 PPG (4th) on 337.0 YPG (12th).

The Bills are waiting to see if Josh Allen will be cleared from the concussion protocol and he's listed as questionable. Backup Matt Barkley will start if Allen can't go and would make his first start since last season. He threw for 127 yards coming off the bench in last week's 16-10 loss. Whether it's Allen or Barkley, I'm backing the Titans. I'm still not sold on the Bills and believe that he Titans are a no-frills solid team without any major weaknesses, especially with Marcus Mariota stepping up his play (Mariota is the only quarterback to start every game this season without giving the ball away). The Titans didn’t permit a sack against the Falcons last Sunday (after allowing a league-high 17 sacks through the first three weeks). Now the Titans get back All-Pro offensive left tackle Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.

The Titans are sure to recall losing on a last-second 46-yard FG at Buffalo a year ago in Week 5, a defeat that loomed large, as the Titans lost a playoff berth in their regular-season finale. All teams in the AFC South are 2-2 and the Titans believe that with three of their next four games at home, it's a great opportunity to put together a winning streak. That streak starts right here, with Tennessee's first back-to-back wins of 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in all four games in 2019 but the Falcons are just 1-3, after losing 24-10 at home last Sunday to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan threw for a season-high 397 yards in in Week 4 but did not throw a TD pass. All season, Atlanta's has lacked any offensive balance, as the running game is averaging just 70.2 YPG on 4.0 YPC, to rank 37th in the league. The defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (32.8 per) but 22nd in points (24.8 PPG). At the moment, Atlanta looks like the worst team in the NFC South and head coach Dan Quinn's seat warms up a little bit more with each loss.

The Texans are one of FOUR teams in the AFC South to enter Week at 2-2. Houston is coming off a lackluster 16-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers and needs QB Deshaun Watson to "step it up." He passed for only 160 yards vs the Panthers. Watson (65.1%, 938 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of 99.9) is capable of so much more, especially with a WR like Hopkins (24 catches) and a running game that's been better than average (120.2 YPG on 5.1 YPC), even after losing Lamar Smith. The defense is allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) and the Texans have forced a turnover in 17 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. and one that ranks second in franchise history. Houston is tied for second in league with eight forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries.

Houston really needs this win at home, as FOUR of the team's next five games will be on the road. The good news is that the Falcons set up as the perfect foil. The Falcons are beginning a stretch in which four of their next six games are on the road plus this marks their THIRD straight contest against an AFC South team. The Falcons have lost the first two (at Indy in Week 4 and home to Tennessee in Week 4), falling to 1-12 SU their last 13 vs AFC South opponents. The ATS "clincher" is Atlanta going 4-14 ATS on the road since the start of the 29017 season, a 78% "go-against."

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals made a huge 4th-quarter comeback in Week 1 at home against the Lions (trailed 24-6) to earn a 27-27 tie. However, the Cards have lost THREE in a row since and at 0-3-1, face another winless team in the 0-4 Bengals on Sunday in Cincinnati. The Bengals also played their best game of the season in Week 1, losing just 21-20 at Seattle despite out-gaining the Seahawks 429-to-232. The Cards come into this contest off a 27-10 home loss to Seattle in Week 4, while the Bengals took a 3-0 lead at Pittsburgh this past Monday night, only to scoreless in the game's final 51 minutes in a 27-3 defeat. Something's gotta give here right?

Last year's Heisman winner Kyler Murray has just four TDs (also four INTs) on the season, while posting a poor 78.8 QB rating. This despite a pair of outstanding WRs. Larry Fitzgerald had five receptions against Seattle to increase his career total to 1,326 and move past Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez for second place on the all-time list. The 36-year-old has made five catches in each of his last three games but could be targeted even more this week,as Christian Kirk (team-high 24 catches) is sidelined with an ankle injury. RB David Johnson is no longer a "fantasy favorite," as he has just 173 rushing yards, although he has added 21 catches with two TDs. The running game ranks 23rd overall, averaging only 92.0 YPG. Arizona's D ranks 29th in allowing 28.8 PPG on 417.0 YPG (31st).

Dalton was sacked a career-high EIGHT times during a 27-3 loss in Pittsburgh on Monday night. His OL is troublesome and Cincy's running game has been almost non-existent (49.5 YPG ranks last in the NFL). A.J. Green will miss his fifth game with an ankle injury suffered during training camp and John Ross (16 catches / 20.5 YPC / 3 TDs) is out due to a shoulder injury. The defense is allowing 27.5 PPG (28th) on 386.2 YPG (23rd)

The Cardinals and Bengals can sure commiserate and both HAVE to realize that each have their best chance yet to get that elusive first win for either of the two first-year head coaches, Kliff Kingsbury (Arizona) or Zac Taylor (Cincinnati). Why bother with either side? The Cardinals haven't won in Cincinnati in 12 years (maybe NOT a big deal) but noting that Arizona has won just ONCE in its last 10 games played in the Eastern Time Zone, is.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week (5) is on Chi/Oak Over at 1:00 ET.

Khalil Mack will have a few incentives when he takes the field for The Chicago Bears hosted their bitter rival (the Green Bay Packers) to open NFL 2019 on a Thursday night (Sep 5) and lost 10-3. Chicago then won its Week 2 game in Denver, 16-14 by making a 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. Heading into the team's MNF Week 3 game at Washington, QB Mitchell Trubisky, the team's "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft," had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions. The Bears beat the sad-sack Redskins 31-15 in that MNF game and then their defense dominated in a 16-6 home win in Week 4 over the Vikings. Now it's off to London for 3-1 Chicago for a meeting with the 2-2 Oakland Raiders.Oakland is hoping to build off a 31-24 triumph at Indianapolis last Sunday. The Raiders ran 188 yards on the ground in the win, with rookie Josh Jacobs gaining 79 on 17 carries, as they avoided a third straight loss while playing the second of five consecutive contests away from Oakland. The Raiders will be playing in London for the second straight season and internationally for the FIFTH time in six years.

Trubisky suffered a left shoulder injury during Chicago's first possession last week and is expected to miss this game. It's hard to say he'll be missed all that much. Chase Daniel will be under center after completing 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown vs the Vikings in relief. Daniel is a 10-year vet and will make his third start in two seasons with Chicago. He went a combined 53 of 76 (69.7%) for 515 yards with three TDs and two INTs in two starts last season (a win at Detroit and loss at the NY Giants). The Bears bring one of the NFL's best defenses to London, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 290.8 YPG (5th).

Oakland's Derek Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes and has been greatly helped by Jacobs, a rookie RB from Alabama. Jacobs has 307 rushing yards this season (5.0 YPC), eclipsing the team record for most by a player in his first four career games. TE Darren Waller grabbed a share of an NFL record last week a swell, increasing his reception total to 33, tying Antonio Gates (2007) for most by a tight end in his team's first four contests of a season. Oakland's defense is another story, as the Raiders rank 25th in allowing 25.5 PPG on 390.2 YPG (alos 25th).

Oakland's 31-24 win at Indy last week makes them just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS on the road since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. The 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Again, this is a neutral site game but it's also a 10:00 a.m. Pacific time start, games in which the Raiders have struggled. I expect the Bears to have little trouble scoring here plus I also think the Raiders' offense is jelling. With this tantalizingly low over/under number, the play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Under the Radar Rout is on New Mexico St at 8:00 ET.

Liberty announced it would start a transition to the FBS in July of 2017. The Flames became a provisional FBS member in 2018 (playing as an Independent) and becomes a full FBS member, including bowl eligibility, in 2019. The Flames went 6-6 in 2018 and after opening 2019 with back-to-back losses, has won THREE in a row. New Mexico St's first season was 1893 and has long been playing as a Division 1 school (now FBS). Current head coach Doug Martin is in his seventh season at Las Cruses and in 2017, led the Aggies to a 7-6 season which included bowl win over UIah St. That marked just NMSU's second winning season since 2000 (2002 team went 7-5). However, the Aggies were just 3-9 last season and have opened this season 0-5.

Liberty made a controversial hire before this season naming Hugh Freeze as its head coach. Freeze was ousted at Ole Miss in 2016 and in February 2019, the NCAA punished the Ole Miss football team for the recruiting and academic violations committed under Freeze and a previous head coach. The punishments included a two-year postseason ban, three years of probation, and a four-year ban on some scholarships. As well, 33 games were vacated, or stripped from the record. Freeze's record at Ole Miss, which was 39–25 during his five seasons, now stands officially at 12–25. Libery comes in on a three-game winning streak but winning on the road is a challenge, even vs a poor team like New Mexico St. The Flames went 1-5 SU on the road in 2018, allowing 48.3 PPG. In Liberty's lone road game here in 2019, the Flames lost 35-14 at UL-Lafayette.

New Mexico St owns the nation's worst defense, allowing 47.2 PPG (ranking 130th among 130 FBS schools) on 520.4 YPG (128th). However, let me note that just last Saturday, UMass won 37-29 at home against sad-sack Akron, having entered that contest allowing 51.8 PPG on 556.2 YPG (both left them 130th in the nation). The Aggies won't go 0-12 this season and it's noteworthy to mention that just like in 2018, these two schools are playing a home-and-home series in 2019. New Mexico St beat Liberty 49-41 here in Las Cruses last season and then lost a competitive game in Lynchburg 28-21 in the season-finale for both schools. The first meeting in 2018 was on the first Saturday of October (just like this season) and the teams will again meet in Lynchburg Nov 30, capping their respective seasons. In front of a friendly home crowd, expect the Aggies to claim their first (only?) win of 2019 against the Flames. Don't see Liberty winning FOUR is row, especially on the road with its dreadful road record since joining FBS (see above for a reminder).

Good luck..Larry

My NCAAF 9* Underdog of the Month is on Michigan St at 7:30 ET.

My 9* "Best Bet" MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 3:30 ET.

Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio on Saturday, where the Rockets will host the Broncos in MAC play. Western Michigan improved to 3-2 on the season (1-0 in the MAC) with a 31-15 victory over Central Michigan last Saturday at home. This marks the Broncos' conference road opener, while for 3-1 Toledo, it's the team's conference opener. Both schools finished with identical 7-6 records in 2018 (both were also 5-3 in MAC play) but Toledo has dominated the series recently, winning SEVEN of the last nine meetings.

PJ Fleck made a 'pit stop' in Kalamazoo from 2013-16 and his final team 'rowed the boat' to a perfect 13-0 record, before falling 24-16 to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Fleck used that season to land the job at Minnesota and Tim Lester has gone 13-12 in his first two years at the school (is currently 16-14). QB Jon Wassink (63.1% / 1,466 yards / 10-4 ratio) leads an offense averaging 37.2 PPG (27th) but WMU has NOT been competitive in its two road games in 2019, losing 51-17 at Mich St and 52-33 at Syracuse.

OK, Toledo is not exactly Mich St (may not even be Syracuse) but the Rockets own a very balanced offense (207.8 YPG passing and 262.2 YPG rushing) that has them 28th in total offense (470.0 YPG) and 41st in scoring (34.5 PPG) That running game ranks 10th in the nation and while the defense is giving up too many yards, the Rockets are holding opponents to a decent 23.5 PPG (51st). Toledo has opened 2-0 at home and that's hardly news. The Rockets entered the 2019 season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips), while going 43-12 SU at home (now 45-12 with this year's two home victories).

As noted above, Toledo has won SEVEN of the last nine meetings with Western Michigan, with both losses coming when Fleck was rowing the boat for WMU (in 2015 and 2016). Fleck's now a Golden Gopher and these last two seasons, Toledo has won 37-10 and 51-24 (at WMU!). No reason at all for the Rockets to NOT be a bigger favorite here.

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Game of the Week is on Kansas St at 3:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Things are looking up for Baylor in 2019, as the Bears have opened 4-0. Baylor squandered a 20-0 lead Saturday in its Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining to keep the Bears perfect with a 23-21 win. Meanwhile, Kansas State, wasn’t so fortunate, losing 26-13 at Oklahoma State last Saturday in its Big 12 opener after a 3-0 start. “The thing about it is I think you can learn a lot more from a loss than you do with a win,” Wildcats first-year head coach Chris Klieman said Monday on the Big 12 coaches teleconference. “We’re going to learn an awful lot from this.”

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer threw for a season-high 307 yards and passed for three TDs in the win over Iowa St. He's completing 66.4% for 972 yards with 10 TDs and not a single INT. He's supported by a solid running game, averaging 216.0 YPG (31st), as the Bears head to Manhattan averaging 40.8 PPG (15th). The defense has done its job as well, allowing 16.2 PPG (20th) on 297.5 YPG (24th). The Wildcats also possess one of the Big 12’s top defenses, ranking 17th in the nation in allowing 16.0 PPG on 323.5 YPG (35th), despite being gashed for 526 total yards by Okla St. I guess the good news would be, KSU held the Cowboys to a season-low 26 points.

Baylor's 4-0 start is its best since beginning 2016 with six straight wins and will come to Manhattan as one of 18 undefeated FBS teams. However, Baylor has had problems covering the number in this matchup, going 1-4 ATS in the last five at Kansas St and 3-7 the last 10 meetings, overall. Baylor's first three wins of 2019 have come over FCS SF Austin (1-4), UTSA (1-3) and Rice (0-5) plus the Bears were VERY lucky to escape last Saturday vs Iowa St. I don't expect the Bears to be so lucky here in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have covered SIX of their last seven. Baylor falls from the ranks of the unbeaten in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Ohio/Buffalo Over at 3:30 ET.

Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has since lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 loss at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 2, entering that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns (note: ULL is 4-1 & 5-0 ATS in 2019). The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and now begin their MAC schedule with EIGHT straight games, including FOUR weekday games in November.

Ohio begins its MAC 'journey' in Buffalo against the Bulls. Buffalo rebounded from four straight non-winning seasons (2014-17) to go 10-4 in 2018, a season which ended with a heart-breaking 30-29 loss in the MAC championship game vs Northern Illinois and then a 42-32 loss to Troy in the Dollar General Bowl. The Bulls opened 2-2 in non-league play but as a small road favorite in their MAC opener last Saturday, lost 34-20 to Miami, Ohio.Buffalo gained 309 yards rushing (two players topped 100 yards) but had just 89 yards through the air, as QB Matt Myers completed just 4 of 16 passes while throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice.

As bad a start as Ohio has had, the Bobcats have yet to play a MAC game, so this game can be seen a a "new beginning." The problem is, this is arguably Solich's worst defensive team. The Bobcats are allowing 29.5 PPG (88th) on 464.0 YPG (116th). The Buffalo D also leaves much to be desired, as after beating FCS Robert Morris 38-10, the Bulls have allowed 34.0 PPG over the last four games. The home team has won NINE straight games in this series and the Bulls (winners of the MAC East in 2018) will no doubt remember losing 52-17 in Athens last November (note: Bulls entered that game 9-1). I'm NOT saying the Bobcats will not be competitive but they will need to score often to do so. The Play is OVER.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa State at 12:00 ET.

TCU still hasn't decided on a starting QB, as the Horned Frogs used three different QBs while rolling up 625 yards in last week's 51-14 win over Kansas. True freshman starter Max Duggan, fifth-year senior Alex Delton (who started the first two games of the season) and junior Mike Collins all seeing action in the second half. Head coach Gary Patterson wouldn't tip his hand as to who his starter would be against the Cyclones but whoever gets the start, will have the benefit of a rushing attack averaging 275.2 YPG (8th). The 3-1 Horned Frogs visit Ames on Saturday looking to open 2-0 in the Big 12. Iowa St is 2-2 but 0-1 in the Big 12 and unlike TCU, is having all sorts of trouble running the ball, averaging 152.2 YPG (76th) on the season, after gaining only 63 yards (2.3 YPC) on the ground in last Saturday's 23-21 loss at Baylor.

Duggan is just the second true freshman to start at QB during the 19-season head coaching tenure of Gary Patterson and completed 8-of-11 passes for 100 yards and two TDs against the Jayhawks ,while Delton, a Kansas State transfer, was 10-of-15 for 186 yards and also rushed for 21 yards. Both are expected to see significant snaps. Senior RB Darius Anderson is having a breakout year, rushing for 483 yards (8.2 YPC) with five TDs. His best previous season at TCU was in 2017, when he gained 768 yards for the entire year. Patterson's teams typically play good D and this year's squad is holding opponents to 18.8 PPG (30th) on 246.0 YPG (4th).

Iowa St may have issues running the ball (the Cyclones have rotated five different RBs) but QB Brock Purdy ranks fourth nationally in total offense (358.0 YPG) and seventh in the nation in passing yards (332.8 YPG), coming in with back-to-back 300-yard passing games. Iowa St was held to just 17 points by Iowa but is still averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) and the defense is allowing a modest 21.8 PPG (45th).

Iowa St's two losses are to Iowa and Baylor (both are 4-0) and have come by a total of just THREE points. The Cyclones fell behind 20-0 at Baylor last Saturday but rallied back with 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a one-point lead with 3:45 remaining However, ISU lost on a 38-yard field goal with just 21 seconds left. The Iowa loss was not any easier to take, as the Cyclones led 14-6 late in the third quarter, before closing 18-17 on a FG with just under five minutes left.

Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 last year and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. He's 2-2 this year, with those two "close losses." The Cyclones are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games, losing in 2018 to then-No. 5 Oklahoma (ATS win) and to current No. 14 Iowa in 2019 (another ATS win). The Cyclones have owned the month of October vs Big 12 opponents (home or away) since 2017, going a PERFECT 7-0 SU & ATS. Make that 8-0!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Lights Play (AAC Game of the Month) is on UCF at 8:00 ET.

The 3-1 Cincinnati Bearcats will play their AAC opener Friday night when they welcome 4-1 UCF to Nippert Stadium. UCF is ranked 18th in the latest AP poll and is coming off a 56-21 rout of Connecticut to open its AAC slate. The Knights rebounded from their first loss in 26 regular-season games (35-34 at Pittsburgh on Sep 22), by registering 607 yards of total offense. Cincinnati is coming off it best game of 2019, dominating both sides of the ball in a 52-14 rout at Marshall on Sep 28. The Bearcats out-gained the Thundering Herd 525-256, as they kept Marshall off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter.

Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel threw for three TDs against UConn and after five games has completed 61.7% for 1,338 yards with a 14-2 ratio. UCF's running game adds excellent balance to an offense averaging 49.0 PPG (6th) on 568.6 YPG (2nd). Three RBs have more than 250 yards rushing, led by McCrae (323 YR / 6.2 YPC) and Killins (310 YR / 7.4 YPC). When a team's offense is averaging seven TDs per game, a defense allowing 19.4 PPG (33rd) on 324.8 YPG (36th) is more than adequate.

Cincy's sophomore QB Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Week with his four TD passes against Marshall. Ridder has a pair of reliable receivers in WR Alec Pierce (14 receptions, 277 yards, TD) and TE Josiah Deguara (12 catches, 183 yards, 3 TDs),. The running agme is decent (186.5 YPG ranks 52nd) and despite getting shutout 42-0 by Ohio St, Cincy is averaging 27.8 PPG (80th). The Cincy D is pretty good, holding the team's three opponents (not named Ohio St) to just 13.7 PPG

Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. His Bearcats take a NINE-game home winning streak into this contest but is beating a UCF a 'bridge too far?' My bet says Y-E-S! The Knights have scored 30 points or more in 32 straight games and have won 19 straight AAC games, with the average margin of victory checking in at 21.0 PPG (just ONE win has had a margin of less than seven points). These schools have met three times in the Frost/Heupel era (2016-18), with UCF winning 24-3, 51-23 (game was cut short because of thunderstorms) and 38-13. Deja vu!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points!

Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018?

Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019.

Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET.

As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has  played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game?

Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. .

Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs").

Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG).

With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th).

It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.'

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb?

Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times.

Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests.

It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday.

Yes, I like Denver but what I like even more is the Over. I really like what I see with Minshew and as noted, Denver's D seems to still be a "work in progress." Conditions will be near-perfect in Denver and this is one of just TWO totals under 40. Getting back to Denver's great home record in September, let me add that in those 13 straight Sep home wins (before the team's Week 2 loss in 2019), the Broncos had averaged 29.2 PPG. I'm "all in" on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb?

Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times.

Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests.

It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Cam Newton is sidelined indefinitely by a Lisfranc injury in his foot, so the Carolina Panthers will give QB Kyle Allen his second straight start. The second-year player got the job done last week, going 19-of-26 for 261 yards with four touchdowns and zero interception in a 38-20 win at Arizona, Carolina’s first victory of the season. The Texans are 2-1 and just one defensive stop (and a 58-yard FG) away from being undefeated. However, in all fairness, they’re also just a couple plays away from being winless, as all three of Houston's games have been decided by seven points or less.

I'm not sure the Panthers are counting on or waiting for, Cam Newton to snap out of his malaise. The bigger question right now is, can Newton even play anymore given his various injuries? Newton had zero TD throws and just five rushing attempts in two games before missing this past Sunday. As for this game, we'll see if Allen is no more than a backup QB or is he not ready for primetime. We KNOW McCaffrey is ready. He had a breakout season in 2018 (his second), rushing for 1,098 yards (5.0 YPC) with seven TDs, while catching 107 passes for 867 yards with six more TDs. After three games in 2019, he's got 318 yards rushing (5.4 YPC) and three TDs plus 15 catches for 132 yards.

Houston’s offense has been inconsistent, scoring 28 points, then 13 and then 27. However, QB Deshaun Watson has been steady, completing 65.6 percent for 778 yards with six TDs and only one interception. Watson has a solid receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins (19 catches), but after the RB duo Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson (replacing the injured Lamar Smith) performed well in Weeks 1 & 2, Houston ran for just 39 yards against San Diego. The defense was torched by Drew Brees in a 30-28 Week 1 loss but has played much better the last two weeks, allowing just 32 points. Outstanding pass rushers J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus may give Allen "all he wants, and more!"

Is Allen really a better 'fit' for the Panthers? That's hard to say but let's note that the Panthers come into this game just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games. The two wins came last week at Arizona (3-13 in 2018 and 0-2-1 to open 2019) and the Saints in Week 17 of 2018, when Brees and the starters sat. Is anyone confident that Allen is up to the challenge of out-dueling Watson and a team that is 13-6 with a healthy Watson starting at QB since the beginning of last year!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET.

The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota.

Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit).

Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests.

The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall.

Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season.

This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Arizona at 10:30 ET.

Anyone reading this will surely have heard that UCLA scored 50 points in the second half at then-No. 19 Washington State while rallying from a 49-17 deficit for earn its first victory of the season, 67-63. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a school-record 564 yards of total offense, including 507 yards passing (5 TDs) and 57 rushing yards (2 TDs). 1-3 UCLA is back on the road again this Saturday night, when it travels to Tucson to take on the 2-1 Arizona Wildcats.Arizona, which lost to UCLA 31-30 last season at the Rose Bowl minus starting QB Khalil Tate, has bounced back from a season-opening 45-38 loss at Hawaii with double-digit wins over both Northern Arizona (65-41) and Texas Tech (28-14).

UCLA came to Pullman last week 0-3 and was well on its way to an 0-4 start (Bruins opened 0-5 in 2018) before its incredible comeback. DTR (as UCLA's QB is known) had thrown for just 556 yards with four TDs and four INTs in the Bruins 0-3 start but picked apart a three-man Washington State pass rush in the second half when he threw for 322 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown pass with 1:07 to play for the game-winning TD. UCLA's win was incredible but the Bruins did allow Washington St to score 63 points on a WHOPPING 720 yards, with QB Gordon accounting for 570 passing yards and nine TD passes. The Bruins' 'survived' by forcing SIX turnovers with linebacker Josh Woods leading the way an interception and two fumble recoveries, including one with 59 seconds left to seal the win.

Arizona opened the season in 'paradise' (otherwise known as Hawaii) but despite gaining 539 yards and forcing SIX Hawaii turners, got upset 45-38 (Wildcats were favored by 10.5 points). However, Arizona 'hung' 65 points against Northern Arizona and then played an excellent all-around game in beating Texas Tech 28-14 as a two-point home dog. QB Tate is healthy and primed for a HUGE senior season. He's passed for 684 yards in three games (6 TDs) and run for 238 yards (7.4 YPC) with two TDs. Tate surpassed the 5,000-yard mark in career passing (5,048) and the 2,000-yard career rushing mark (2,110) in the win over Texas Tech, joining Oregon's Marcus Mariota as the only QBs in conference history to accomplish that feat. Tate had a school-record 84-yard touchdown run against the Red Raiders and also engineered a 99-yard, 13-play drive that chewed up over seven minutes for the game-clinching TD.

This sets up as a classic "let down" spot for the Bruins, plus Arizona has the advantage of not only coming in off a bye week but the Wildcats are playing with revenge from last year's one-point loss (again, Tate missed that contest). let's not forget that UCLA entered the 2019 season just 2-15 SU in road games the previous three seasons and began 20 19 with a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati. So, heading into last Saturday's game at Washington St, the Bruins were 2-17 SU in games away from the Rose Bowl (UCLA's home field), including a 35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St in 2017. Down 49-17 in the third quarter, UCLA rallied to win. Hard to see UCLA not coming into this game 'flat.' Arizona's running game ranks 5th in the nation at 307.7 YPG (6,6 YPC), while UCLA's ranks 124th at 96.0 YPG (2.7 YPC). I want Tate over DTR plus UCLA's defense, which allows 530.2 YPG (125th) and 39.5 PPG (122nd) will NOT get six TOs in this one to save them. UCLA win streak ends at ONE in a  row. Wildcats roll.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET.

The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va  for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog).

East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Week is on Indiana/Mich St Over at 3:30 ET.

Michigan State (3-1 / 1-0 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its 10-7 home loss to Arizona St on Sep 14, with a solid 31-10 win at Northwestern last Saturday in the team's conference opener. MSU dropped out of the AP top-25 after losing to ASU but is back in (barely, at No. 25) after the win over the Wildcats. Speaking of bounce-back performances, Indiana (3-1 / 0-1 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season last Saturday, limiting Connecticut's offense to just 145 total yards in a 38-3 win. That was quite an improvement from Indiana's 51-10 loss at Ohio St on Sep 14, when the Buckeyes rolled up 520 yards. 

Peyton Ramsey was Indiana's starting QB in both 2017 and 2018 but he lost his starting job to redshirt freshman Michael Penix Jr. entering 2019. Penix threw for 326 yards but threw two INTs in Indiana's 34-24 season-opening over Ball St. Up next was Eastern Illinois and after throwing for 197 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in the first half, Ramsey came in and went 13 of 14 for 226 yards with two TDs (0 INTs) in a 51-0 rout. However, Penix has been out with an undisclosed injury the last two games. Ramsey had no success vs Ohio St buthe was near perfect against UConn, completing 23-of-27 passes for 247 yards and three TDs (no INTs). Indiana's defense has been just fine against Ball St, Eastern Illinois and UConn but as noted, got overwhelmed by Ohio St.

Michigan St does not own an offense in the class of Ohio St but except for its awful showing against ASU, the Spartans have averaged 36.7 PPG in their other three wins. Brian Lewerke is a senior QB and he's completing 62.3% with seven TDs and only one INT, while passing for 1,025 yards. RB Collins has added357 yards (5.9 YPC) and is a nice complement. Mark Dantonio's teams always play excellent defense and this year's team is allowing 11.0 PPG (10th) on 228.5 YPG (3rd).

Michigan St has dominated this series the last 20 meetings, winning 17! I don't see that changing here, as I believe the MSU offense will have plenty of success against the Indiana defense. Not Ohio St-like success, but I'll take the team's 36.7 PPG average excluding the ASU game. Consider these two factoids. This is Mark Dantonio's 13th season at East Lansing and MSU has played Indiana 10 times in his first 12, averaging 40.3 PPG. As for Lewerke, let me add that only ONE Michigan State QB has thrown for 6,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 in his career (Drew Stanton). Lewerke will join Stanton with 39 more yards rushing. My point? He's better than most think. Yes, MSU's defense is strong but Indiana head coach Tom Allen is keeping the Spartans guessing as to which QB will start, Ramsey or Penix. MSU has dominated the series the last two decades but Indiana owns one win over the last three meetings, winning by three in OT (2016), before losing by eight and 14 the last two. I expect the Hoosiers to surprise by moving the ball (and getting into the end zone), more than most think. This total is low enough to 'sail' over.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Eye-Opener is on Rutgers/Michigan Over at 12:00 ET.

Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh so he could return the Wolverines to the "top of the college football world." However, that has NOT quite been n the case. Harbaugh is 0-4 against Ohio State and Michigan's 35-17 loss ('ass kicking') at Wisconsin was just another in a growing list of Michigan failures on the road against ranked opponents in Harbuagh's tenure. The Wolverines fell behind 28-0 at the half in Madison and when Michigan finally scored (with just 2:03 remaining in the third quarter), Wisconsin had already scored 35 points. The Michigan defense was shredded for 487 yards, including a WHOPPING 359 on the ground (6.3 YPC). Michigan returns to Ann Arbor Saturday to take on Rutgers, which checks in at 1-2 (0-1 Big Ten). Rutgers opened the 2019 season with a 48-21 win over UMass, ending an 11-game losing streak but has followed with a 30-0 loss at Iowa and a 30-16 home loss to BC.

The Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014 and after going 8-5 (3-5 in Big Ten) that first season, have lost 32 of their last 36 conference games, including 13 in a row heading into Saturday's contest. There was some good news coming out of last weeks loss to BC, as QB Artur Sitkowski had one of the best games of his young career. The sophomore QB completed 23-of-33 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown. Head coach Chris Ash revealed he will get the start against Michiga,  as McLane Carter remains in the concussion protocol. Michigan QB Shea Patterson has looked uncomfortable in the team's new offense and both of his TD passes came after Michigan was down 35-0. He finished 14-of-32 for 219 yards with one interception plus lost a fumble. Backup QB Dylan McCaffrey went 3-of-8 for 40 yards before he was knocked out of the game by a high hit that drew a targeting penalty. He we will miss Saturday's game with a concussion.

Here's the bottom line. Rutgers is simply in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Maybe Ash could have counted on Harbaugh to "go easy" on him but NOT coming off last week's HUGELY disappointing 18-point loss at Wisconsin. Harbaugh got to Michigan in 2015 and the year before, Rutgers beat Michigan 26-24. Harbaugh's 'blasted' the Scarlet Knights in each of his first four meetings, averaging a WHOPPING 51.0 PPG. I can see Michigan "going over" all by themselves in this one but I also think we'll get some points out of Rutgers, after seeing Sitkowski throw for 304 yards against BC last Saturday. Michigan will score early and often (and may not stop), but watch for Rutgers to get a couple (or three) TDs of its own.

Good luck...Larry