My 10* LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

Super Bowl 55 will not be a rematch of the first-ever Super Bowl (Kansas City/Green Bay on Jan 15, 1967) but one would be hard-pressed to argue against the fact that this is one of the most-anticipated matchups of all-time. Tom Brady left New England and Bill Belichick in his rearview mirror and while the Pats failed to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008 by going 7-9 (Belichik's only other losing season in New England came in his first season with the Pats in 2000), Brady led one of the NFL's biggest losers (Tampa Bay) to its second-ever Super Bowl. Brady is now in his 10th Super Bowl (six wins in his first nine tries), where the G.O.A.T. will take on the defending champion Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes who many (most?) believe is the "G.O.A.T in Waiting."

Mahomes and the Chiefs ended last season with NINE straight wins, including a 3-0 run in the playoffs. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 14-1 record through 16 weeks in 202 and then sat out Week 17 since KC had clinched the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their four first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin over the Browns. Mahomes was KO'd in the 3rd quarter but KC held on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes wasn't cleared to play until Friday for e the AFC championship game and while the Bills led 9-0 after one quarter, the Chiefs would outscore the Bills 38-6 to take a commanding 38-15 lead by the mid-4th quarter (38-24 final). Mahomes threw for 325 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, after completing 21 of 30 for 255 yards and one TD (no INTs) and a rushing TD against the Browns. TE Kelce caught 105 passes for 1,416 yards (11 TDs) during the regular season and has added 21 catches and three TDs in two playoff games. WR Hill caught 87 passes for 1,276 yards with 15 TDs (plus two rushing TDs) in the regular season, while catching 17 balls in two playoff games to average 16.6 YPC. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire (803 yards) has been a non-factor in the playoffs but Darel Wiliams has run for 130 yards on 5.0 YPC.

Brady had two TD passes and 381 yards vs Washington but in wins over the Saints (54.5% for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and Packers (55.6% for 280 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs), has not produced vintage Brady efforts. RB Aaron Jones has been limited to 78 yards on 3.4 YPC by injury (ran for 978 yards on 5.1 YPC and 7 TDs in the regular season) but Fournette has "turned back time" rushing for 211 yards and two TDs, while catching 14 passes with one TD. SIX players have caught Brady's seven playoff TD passes. Evans has two TDs (10 catches / 17.3 YPC), Godwin matches Fournette with 14 postseason catches (15.9 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Brate has 11 catches and one TD. Tampa Bay's defense has been superb in winning THREE straight road games. It held Washington to 289 yards, the Saints to 294 yards (forced four turnovers, including three INTs of Brees) and then shutting down Green Bay's running game (67 yards) while sacking Rodgers FIVE times. 

Yes, Tampa Bay is the first team to ever host a Super Bowl game but in the "Year of COVID," is that really an edge? Brady's career and especially his success in the postseason is without peer but his efforts against the Saints and the Packers were FAR from impressive (see above).  Meanwhile, Mahomes has put up remarkable numbers in his first three full seasons as a starter, going 37-8 with 114 TD passes and just 23 INTs in attempts. He's 6-1 in his seven career postseason games, throwing 17 TDs and just two INTs for a 109.8 QB rating. It's MORE than fair to point out that prior to KC's 38-24 win in the AFC championship game that the Chiefs were on a 1-8 or 0-8-1 ATS run but it's equally fair to counter with the fact that Mahomes enters the Super Bowl having gone 25-1 SU in his last 26 starts (including the postseason). Tampa Bay's defense will NOT be able to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense. Mahomes has a LONG way to go to surpass (if ever can) Brady's career accomplishments but this Super Sunday belongs to the 25-year-old. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 6:40 ET.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen did not have a big day against the Ravens (206 passing yards / one TD) and the Bills ran for just 32 yards but the Buffalo D held Baltimore's running game in check. CB Taron Johnson literally "stole the show" when he picked off Lamar Jackson and returned it 101 yards for a TD in the late third, breaking Baltimore's back. Buffalo's 17-3 win allowed the Bills to advance to the AFC championship game for the first time since 1994. The Bills head to KC on an EIGHT-game winning streak and have won 11 of 12 (lone loss was the result of that 'Hail Mary' miracle at Arizona in Week 10). 

Patrick Mahomes hadn't played in 21 days (since the Chiefs clinched the AFC's top seed in Week 16) when he took the field last Sunday against the Browns. However, the Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their FOUR first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin. Mahomes completed 11 of his first 12 passes and was 19 of 25 for 233 yards by halftime. Mahomes was KO'd from the game in the third quarter and the Chiefs had to hold on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes will take the field Sunday having won his last 11 starts, as KC becomes the first AFC team to host three consecutive conference title games. 

The good news for the Kansas City Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes is planning to play. Mahomes said Friday that he is out of concussion protocol and is ready to start Sunday's game/ "Talking to all of the doctors and going through all of the testing, we have the belief that I'll have no lingering effects and I'll be able to go out there and be who I am,'' said Mahomes, who practiced for the third consecutive day on Friday. Buffalo QB Josh Allen and the Bills lost a 27-16 Week 6 home game to the Chiefs but have since won EIGHT straight and 11 of 12. Allen joins Mahomes plus legends Brady and Rodgers in the NFL's 'Final 4' and has had a season worthy of being in the same class as his counterparts. He completed 69.2 percent in the regular season for 4,544 yards (had EIGHT 300-yard games) with 37 TDs and just 10 INTs (107.2 QB rating). The Bill's running game (107.7 YPG ranks 20th) is suspect but the addition of Stefon Diggs was HUGE. Diggs' All-Pro season included NFL highs of 127 catches and 1,535 yards (also eight TDs). Fellow WR Beasley added a career-high 82 catches.

Mahomes didn't play in the Chiefs' last regular-season game after they had already clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed. He finished completing 66.3% for 4,740 yards with 38 TDs and just six INTs (QB rating 108.2). KC's running game was not much better than Buffalo's (121.4 YPG) but rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (803 yards / 4.4 YPC) is expected back after missing the Cleveland game with an ankle injury. KC has GREAT depth at receiver but Sammy Watkins (slowed by injuries all season) is expected to play here, joining an outstanding group led by All-World TE Kelce (105 catches / 1,416 yards / 11 TDs) and WR Hill (87 catches / 15 TDs).

The Bills were not up to the challenge of playing the Chiefs in Week 6 (in Buffalo), as KC held them to 206 total yards. Allen had a season-low 122 passing yards, the team ran for just 84 yards and Diggs had six catches but for only 46 yards. Meanwhile, Mahomes went 21 of 26 for 225 yards with two TDs and no INTs (128.4 QB rating) and Edwards-Helaire ran for 161 yards! Kansas City ended last season winning its final NINE games (including the playoffs) and is 15-2 this season, after beating Cleveland. That's 24-2 SU and KC is just a three-point favorite here at home (Mahomes 'situation' has kept the number this low). I noted that Mahomes has won his last 11 starts (how about 24-1 over his last 25?) and in his five career home starts in the playoffs, has 15 TDs against zero INTs. That's good enough for me to back KC.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET.

Tom Brady and the Bucs' offense turned three of four Saints turnovers into TDs and Tampa Bay beat the Saints 30-20 in the divisional round of the playoffs Sunday night at New Orleans. The Saints had beaten the Bucs in BOTH regular season meetings, 34-24 at home in Week 1 and then 38-3 at Tampa in Week 9. Two of those TDs came on short passes to WR Mike Evans and RB Leonard Fournette. Then, after an interception by LB Devin White, Brady drove the Bucs to the one-yard-line, from where he scored himself with 4:57 left to virtually ensure his 14th trip to a conference championship game but his first in the NFC. Brady finished 18 of 33 for 199 yards with two TD passes and that TD run. The 30-20 Tampa Bay win resembled more of a defensive struggle, as the Bucs had a modest 316 total yards and the Saints had just 294. However, unlike in his previous two meetings with the Saints (five INTs and six sacks), Brady was not intercepted and largely avoided pressure, taking only one sack.

The Packers scored on each of their first five series and led the Rams 25-10 early in the third quarter. When all was said and done, the Rams' top-rated defense (had allowed 18.5 PPG on just 281.9 YPG) was shredded for 32 points on 484 yards, allowing 28 FDs (GB was 8 of 12 on 3rd downs). Rodgers threw for 296 yards with two TDs and no INTs (108.1 QB rating) plus had a one-yard TD run. The Green Bay defense held the Rams to just 244 yards, allowing LA to convert just 2 of 8 third downs (0-1 on 4th down). Green Bay has now won SEVEN in a row, holding its opponents to 18.4 PPG during that stretch. The Packers have reached the NFC championship game for the fourth time in seven seasons, as they chase their first Super Bowl berth in a decade (2010 season). It will be their first NFC title contest at Lambeau Field since hosting for the 2007 season, when they fell to the New York Giants 23-20 in overtime. Rodgers was on Green Bay's roster during that 2007 season backing up Brett Favre.

These teams met back in Week 6 in Tampa, with Buccaneers spotting the Packers an early 10-0 lead. However, Tampa Bay spent the remainder of the game dismantling Green Bay in a 38-10 beatdown! Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions (one was returned for a TD) and was sacked four times. He completed just 16 of 35 passes while passing for just 160 yards and no TDs. His accuracy rate was 45.7% and his QB rating was 35. Both figures were season-lows and it is the ONLY time this season he didn't have a TD pass in a game. Rodgers ended the regular season completing 70.7% with 48 TDs (a franchise record) and just five INTs. His QB rating of 121,5 was the second-best of his career and the highest of any QB this season. The Green Bay offense led the NFL in scoring at 31.8 PPG and also committed the fewest TOs (11). WR Davante Adams is the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 receptions with 18 receiving TDs in a season, as he finished with 115 receptions and 18 TDs in just 14 games. TE Tonyan had 52 catches (11 TDs), while RB Jones added 47 catches and two TDs. Like Adams, Jones missed two games but ran for 1,104 yards (5.5 YPC) and scored 11 rushing TDs.

Brady didn't dominate that Week 6 win over Green Bay, passing for a season-low 166 yards (2 TDs and zero INTs). Brady was also far from great vs New Orleans (see above). However, the 43-year-old has been performing like someone younger all season, passing for 4,633 yards while setting a franchise record with 40 TD passes in the regular season. He transformed a losing franchise (Tampa's last playoff appearance came back in 2007) in leading the Bucs to their first NFC championship contest since the 2002 season. The Buccaneers posted a 27-10 win over the host Philadelphia Eagles and went on to rout the then-Oakland Raiders 48-21 in the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay's only other NFC championship game appearance came in the 1979 season. RB Ronald Jones ran for 978 yards in the regular season (5.1 YPC / 7 TDs) and WR Evans had 70 catches for 1,006 yards (13 TDs). However, both Jones and Evans are questionable, as is WR Godwin (65 catches / 7 TDs in the regular season).

Brady's career speaks for itself. He's a six-time Super Bowl champ and will be playing in his 14th career league championship final (9-4 in the AFC with the Pats). However, I believe Rodgers will be the best QB on the field and has ALL his 'weapons,' while more than a few key Tampa Bay offensive players will be far less than 100% if they can even play. The Buccaneers have won SEVEN straight road games as they enter hallowed Lambeau Field and while Brady's familiar with cold-weather playoff games with New England. Weather reports forecast a 50-percent chance of snow. That's Green Bay weather, NOT Tampa Bay weather. Throw in a HUGE revenge motive and this three-point line seems 'cheap.'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 3:05 ET.

Full, detailed analysis Saturday afternoon by 3:00 ET.

My 9* "Battle of the Bs" is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens ended last season on a 12-game winning streak and entered the 2019 postseason 14-2 as the AFC's No. 1 seed. However, the Ravens lost 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. The two teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Ravens drew the 4th-seeded Titans in the Wild Card round last Sunday and the THIRD time was 'the charm!' The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter but dominated the rest of the way in winning 20-13. Lamar Jackson finally got his first postseason victory (0-2), running for 136 yards and a 48-yard TD while throwing for 179 yards. The Baltimore D held Tennessee to its fewest points all season and smothered 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry. Henry had run all over the Ravens with 328 yards rushing combined in the last two meetings but had his worst performance of the season, gaining only 40 yards on 18 carries.

It's been a season to remember for Buffalo in 2020. QB Josh Allen set franchise records of 4,544 passing yards and 37 TDs as well as helping provide a new identity to a rising team that posted the franchise's best victory total since 1991 in going 13-3. The Bills won the AFC East for the first time since 1995 but entered their game with the Colts having lost their last SIX playoff contests since last winning a postseason game following the 1995 season. The Bills' 27-24 win over the Colts snapped that 0-6 postseason skid, winning their first playoff game since a 37-22 win over Miami on Dec 30, 1995. Allen passed for 324 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (121.6 QB rating), while leading the team in rushing with 54 yards and a TD. He's in just this third season but in two playoff games, has become only the FIFTH player since at least 1940 to score a touchdown rushing, passing and receiving in his playoff career (he scored on a 16-yard catch from John Brown in a 22-19 OT loss at Houston a year ago).

Baltimore's Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati in Week 17. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards in that contest and led the NFL in rushing for the second straight season (191.9 YPG). How good is the Ravens' running game? It ran for 1,573 yards during its current 6-0 SU & ATS streak, which is more than SIX teams ran for all season! The Ravens are only the third team in NFL history to have three players top 700 yards rushing in a single season with Jackson (1,005 yards), rookie J.K. Dobbins (805) and Gus Edwards (723). Baltimore's defense finished second to the Rams in allowing just 18.9 PPG on the season. 

Allen's OUTSTANDING season was sure helped by the signing of WR Stefon Diggs, who caught 127 passes for 1,535 yards and eight TDs in the regular season. He then caught six passes for 128 yards (one TD) vs Indy. Fellow WR Beasley had a career season, catching 82 passes (4 TDs) for 967 yards. Beasley caught seven passes vs the Colts. However, there is a slight concern that BOTH Diggs (oblique) and Beasley (knee) have been somewhat limited this week in practice.

It's true that Buffalo enters on a SEVEN-game winning streak and has won 10 of 11, losing only at Arizona when Murray and Hopkins connected on that improbable "Hail Mary." That said, Baltimore has been playing with a win-or-done urgency since early December, following a 1-4 skid that dropped it to 6-5. The Ravens were depleted by a COVID-19 outbreak in a 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh (but covered), before reeling off six consecutive wins and seven straight ATS wins. The Ravens are 'on a mission of redemption' from last season and it WON'T end here in Buffalo. Hey, maybe the Ravens can get the Browns to upset the Chiefs, meaning Baltimore would host the AFC championship game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the GB Packers at 4:35 ET.

The Rams started undrafted rookie QB John Wolford at Seattle last week due to Jared Goff's thumb injury but they beat the NFC West champion Seahawks by battering Russell Wilson and avoiding mistakes. The Rams allowed the fewest points (18.5 PPG) and total yards (281.9 YPG) during the regular season and allowed Seattle just 278 total yards and 11 FDs, while holding them to 20 points. Russell Wilson completed only 11 of 27 (40.7%) for 174 yards with two TDS, while throwing a "pick-6" and getting sacked FIVE times (QB rating of 72.1)! Wilson finished the regular season having completed 68.8% for almost 300 YPG with 40 TDs and just 13 INTs with a QB rating of 105.1. 

The victory came at a price though. Wolford was KO'd in the game and the Rams will go back to starter Jeff Goff, who is less than three weeks removed from thumb surgery. Goff was nowhere near 100% last Saturday, completing 9 of 19 for 1555 yards with one TD and zero INTs. What's more, defensive tackle Aaron Donald (ribs) and leading WR Cooper Kupp (knee) were injured. The Rams have expressed confidence that Donald, a six-time All-Pro, will play Saturday. Head coach Sean McVay said that "unless something unforeseen happens, the Terminator will be ready." Kupp (92 catches) also insists he'll play. He's joined by fellow WR Woods (90 catches / six TDs) to give LA an outstanding WR duo. The Rams' most important offensive players right now might be rookie RB Cam Akers and left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Although both are recovering from recent injuries, they're the keys to a revitalized ground game that racked up 164 yards rushing last week. Akers missed Week 16 and had just 34 yards on 21 attempts in Week 17, before rushing for 131 yards and one TD vs Seattle.

The Rams come to Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and a Green Bay offense that led the NFL in scoring at 31.8 PPG and also committed the fewest TOs (11). Rodgers was consistently GREAT in 2020, leading the NFL with 48 TDs, a 70.7 percent completion rate, a 121.5 passer rating, a league-tying-low five INTs. He's the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP award. WR Davante Adams is the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 receptions with 18 receiving TDs in a season, as he finished with 115 receptions and 18 TDs in just 14 games. TE Tonyan had 52 catches (11 TDs), while RB Jones added 47 catches and two TDs. Like Adams, Jones missed two games but ran for 1,104 yards (5.5 YPC) and scored 11 rushing TDs.

Green Bay lost a Nov 22 game at Indianapolis to the Colts in Week 11 (34-31) but has won SIX in a row since. Green Bay averaged 33.5 PPG during its winning streak and its defense also played very well, allowing only 18.5 PPG. The Packers will be playing a home game in front of paying spectators for the first time this season. The Lambeau Field crowd will include about 6,500 season-ticket holders as well as invited frontline health-care workers and first responders plus a league-mandated allotment for the visiting team. "That's going to help us, give us an extra added home-field advantage that we need, just bringing that extra juice," Packers running back Aaron Jones said. Most importantly, it will be 'Green Bay weather' on Saturday, with temps around freezing or below. Goff has only played two playoff games with temps under 32 degrees and has FIVE interceptions and zero TDs. Rodgers has 40 TDs and just 12 INTs in his 18 postseason games. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET.

It's 7-0 Ohio State vs 12-0 Alabama in the CFP Championship Game Monday night at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. The Buckeyes advanced with a DOMINATING 49-28 win over Clemson on Jan 1 in the semifinals. Ohio St QB Justin Fields threw for 385 yards and six TDs, while RB Trey Sermon ran 31 times for 193 yards, as the Buckeyes avenged last season's 29-23 semi final loss to the Tigers. The Clemson defense had NO answer for Fields and the Ohio St offense, as the Buckeyes reeled off 28 unanswered points to take a 35-14 halftime lead. 

Mac Jones threw four TD passes, three to WR DeVonta Smith, plus RB Harris 'hurdled' his way to 125 rushing yards, as top-ranked Alabama rolled to a 31-14 victory over fourth-ranked Notre Dame to reach the CFP title game for the FIFTH time in the system's seven seasons (won in 2015 and 2017). Alabama scored on its first THREE possessions and seemed to get 'bored' after taking a 28-7 lead in the third quarter (won 31-14). 

Justin Fields has some VERY sore ribs (broken) but there's VERY little doubt he will be under center for this game. He's completed 73.4% for 1,906 yards (remember, just seven games) with 21 TDs and six INTs. WRs Wilson (40 catches / 16.8 YPC/ 5 TDs) and Olave (42 catches / 15.7 YPC /  7 TDs) are terrific, while TE Ruckert has just 12 catches but FIVE have resulted in TDs. RB Sermon enters off running for 331 yards in the Big Ten championship game vs Northwestern and following with 193 yards against Clemson.

Mac Jones completes 77.0% of his passes for 4,036 yards with 36 TDs and just four INTs, giving him a nation's best QB rating of 203.0. DeVonta Smith (105 catches / 15.6 YPC / 20 TDs) is considered the best WR in the nation and Nick Saban just announced that WR Jaylen Waddle (25 catches / 22.3 YPC / 4 TDs in four games) has been cleared to return to practice and could play in this game. RB Harris can't match Sermon's heroics of the last two games but ran for 1,387 yards on 6.1 YPC with 24 TDs on the season.

Both offenses seem 'unstoppable,' as Ohio St averages 42.5 PPG (8th), while Alabama averages 49.7 PPG (2nd). Both defenses are strong with Ohio State allowing 21.0 PPG and Alabama 19.5 PPG. However, the Alabama defense has really 'found itself,' after a poor start. The Crimson Tide allowed 28.8 PPG through their first four games but just 14.1 PPG over their last eight.  Note, that includes them giving up 46 points to Florida in the SEC title game. Eliminating that game and the Tide allowed just 9.6 PPG over SEVEN of their last eight!

Yes, Ohio St can claim it's won EIGHT of its last nine games as an underdog SU but matching its effort against Clemson here vs Alabama is to me, 'a bridge too far!' According to Ohio St head coach Ryan Day, his team's loss to Clemson last season reverberated for nearly a year among the Buckeyes. "Fresh off of that game, it was right on our minds, and something that when we got back to work and winter workouts, January, February, it was right there for us," Day said Sunday. "Coming off that game, we just didn't get over it in one day. It took time. "There was even a sign with the score posted in the Buckeyes' weight room , an honor usually reserved for rival Michigan. Ohio St threw a 'near-perfect game' at Clemson and my bet says the Buckeyes can't "do it again" vs Alabama, a team which can 'gain separation' VERY quickly against an opponent. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET.

The Cleveland Browns clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2002 with a 24-22 win over the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The 11-5 Browns snapped the NFL's longest current playoff drought, making the playoffs for the first time since 2002. RB Nick Chubb rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown, ending the season with 1,067 (5.6 YPC) with 12 TDs, despite playing in only 12 games. QB Baker Mayfield completed 17 of 27 passes for 196 yards and a TD and also rushed for a season-high 44 yards. Pittsburgh had clinched the AFC North and a playoff spot in Week 16, so they rested Ben Roethlisberger. Mason Rudolph got the start and completed 22 of 39 passes for 315 yards with two TDs and one INT. Now, one week later, the third-seeded Steelers and sixth-seeded Browns will "do it all over again" Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

Mayfield had a promising rookie season but regressed in 2019, with 22 TDs and 21 INTs for a QB rating of just 78.8. However, he got better throughout the season and finished with 26 TDs and 8 INTs for a 95.9 QB rating in 2020. Chubb (see above) and Hunt (842 yards on 4.2 YPC with six TDs) have given Cleveland excellent balance, as Cleveland's running game comes in averaging 148.3 YPG on the ground (3rd-best). The Cleveland defense got slightly better as the season wore on but finished allowing 26.2 PPG (21st).

The 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to complete 65.6% for 3,803 yards with 33 TDs and only 10 INTs in 15 games. The running game ranks last in the NFL (84.4 YPG) but "Big Ben" has an OUTSTANDING group of receivers. Schuster-Smith leads with 97 catches (9 TDs) but fellow WRs like Johnson (88 catches / 7 TDs), Claypool (62 catches / 9 TDs) and Washington (just 30 catches but five TDs) give Big Ben a plethora of options.  The offense has averaged just 334.6 YPG (25th) but has managed to average 26.0 PPG, 12th-best. However, defense remains Pittsburgh's 'calling card.' The Steelers' D enters having allowed 19.5 PPG (3rd) on 305.8 YPG (3rd). Pittsburgh's 56 sacks are No. 1 in the NFL.

The Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 but the franchise's last playoff win came way back in 1994! First-year Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, whose leadership helped end Cleveland's playoff drought, must now 'watch from afar,' after testing positive for COVID. I guess no AFC team would want to draw the Chiefs as its first playoff opponent but for the Browns, the LAST team they wanted was to face the Steelers, in a one-week turnaround, playing in Pittsburgh with "Big Ben back at QB. Contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but the Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Cleveland's postseason return lasts ONE game. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:05 ET.

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

These teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Titans battled the Indy Colts all season long for the AFC South title but clinched the division (via a tiebreaker) with a 41-38 win at Houston in Week 17. Derrick Henry rushed for a career-high 250 yards and became the eighth player in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards in a season, in Tennessee's Week 17 win, capped by Sam Sloman 37-yard FG on the final play (banked it in). QB Ryan Tannehill totaled three TDs.

Lamar Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards, which was the fourth most by a team since 1950. Baltimore didn't quite match last year's rushing record but the Ravens did lead the NFL with 191.9 YPG on 5.5 YPC. Mark Ingram topped 1,000-yards last season but this season was replaced by rookie Dobbins (805 yards on 6.0 YPC with nine TDs) and Edwards (723 yards on 5.0 YPC with five TDs). Baltimore's defense finished No. 2 in points allowed (18.9 PPG).

Ryan Tannehill has had a career season by completing 65.5% for 3,819 yards with 33 TDs and seven INTs (106.5 QB rating). Henry had 2,027 yards rushing (5.4 YPC  / 17 TDs), as the Titans finished second to Baltimore with 168.1 YPG on the ground. WRs Brown (70 catches / 15.4 YPC / 11 TDs) and Davis (65 catches / 15.1 YPC / 5 TDs) team with TEs Smith (41 catches / 8 TDs) and Firkser (39 catches). The Tennessee D is no match for Baltimore's, allowing 27.4 PPG (24th) on 398.3 YPG (28th). That's 8.5 PPG  and about 70 YPG more.

The Ravens closing 5-0 SU & ATS run saw them outscore opponents on average, 37.2-to-17.8 PPG. Lamar Jackson has 'flopped' badly in two playoff games and I have to believe the "THIRD" time will be the charm.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:40 ET.

The 10-6 Rams (No. 6 seed) and the 12-4 Seahawks (No. 3 seed) meet for a third time this season in Seattle on Saturday The teams split their two meetings this season, with Los Angeles winning 23-16 on Nov 15 at home (Week 10), while the Seahawks 'returned the favor' with a 20-9 win in Seattle (Week 16). Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay was asked whether he had a timetable to determine his starting QB and replied, "Yeah," he said. "Saturday at 1:39."Jared Goff suffered a fractured right thumb in a 20-9 loss at Seattle on Dec.27 and had surgery the following day. John Wolford replaced Goff last weekend against Arizona, helping the Rams clinch a playoff berth with an 18-7 victory. Wolford completed 22 of 38 passes for 231 yards and rushed for a team-high 56 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 200 and rush for 50 in their debut. Seattle has no QB concerns with Russell Wilson (4,212 yards / 40 TDs / 13 INTs).

"Jared is our starting quarterback -- the reality is that he had a thumb surgery," McVay said. "We're monitoring that every single day, and that's something we're taking a day at a time, but the anticipation is both those guys are getting themselves ready to go." Along with Goff, LA's top rusher Cam Akers (625 yards) is questionable with an ankle injury and fellow RBs Henderson and Brown had done little for weeks. Some good news is that WR Kupp (92 catches) is expected to play after missing Week 17 (COVID) and along with Woods (90 catches) give LA a strong WR duo. TEs Higbee  and Everett have combined for 85 catches with Higbee catching five TDs. Defense has been the key all season for the Rams, who ranks first in both scoring D (18.5 PPG) and total D (281.9 YPG). 

RB Chris Carson has been very solid the last six games with 358 yards on 4.8 YPC. He gives balance to a Seattle offense led by Wilson (see above) and the team's dynamic WR duo of Lockett (100 catches / 10 TDs) and Metcalf (83 catches / 10 TDs). Seattle opened 5-0 with Wilson and the offense overcoming the team's defensive woes. However, the Seahawks then lost THREE of four, before recovering with a 6-1 finish. Seattle's defense allowed 26.6 PPG over the first nine games of the season but in that 6-1 'finishing kick,' the 'Legion of Boom' moniker was applicable by allowing just 15.0 PPG!

Seattle won the NFC West title for the first time since 2016 and will host a playoff game for the first time since since January 2017. If Goff plays, he can't possibly be anywhere near 100% and a Wolford/Wilson showdown is a "no-contest!"

Good luck...Larry 

 My *8 NFC West Showdown is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The 11-4 Seattle Seahawks have already clinched their first NFC West title since 2016, capturing the division title with a 20-9 victory against the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. However, the Seahawks can still earn the NFC's top seed and a first-round bye with a victory but only with a loss by Green Bay at Chicago and a loss or tie by 11-4 New Orleans at 5-10 Carolina (not likely). That said, they will finish the 2020 regular season against the defending NFC champions 49ers, who are wrapping up a dismal regular season. San Francisco is 6-9 and will end its season in its 'home-away-from-home,' Glendale, Az.

The Seahawks are relatively healthy, as Russell Wilson caps a strong year. He's completing 69.7% for 4,031 yards with 38 TDs and 13 INTS (QR rating of 106.30. He has two outstanding WRs in Lockett (88 catches / 8 TDs) and Metcalf (80 catches / 16.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and with RB Carson back healthy (273 yards on 4.9 YPC in four Dec games), the Seattle offense has excellent balance. However, it's Seattle HUGE improvement on defense that makes them an NFC title-contender. Seattle's Week 8 victory over the 49ers was the start of its defensive turnaround and an uptick in its pass rush. The Seahawks have 34 sacks in their last nine outings (most in the league over that span) and over Seattle's last five games, the defense has allowed just 12.2 PPG.

It's true that the injury-plagued 49ers have shown a willingness to play the role of spoiler, as behind third-string quarterback C.J. Beathard, the 49ers dealt Arizona's playoff chances a blow with a 20-12 victory last weekend. Beathard completed 13 of 22 passes for 182 yards and three TDs and Jeff Wilson rushed for a career-high 183 yards and made a 21-yard touchdown catch. However, I believe last Sunday's game was Beathard's "15 minutes of fame' and up against this rejuvenated Seattle defense, will play MORE like the journeyman he is. Seattle has won 11 of the last 13 meetings against San Francisco and I'm willing to lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Granddaddy of the Them All' Rivalry G.O.Y. on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Bears/Packers rivalry is the NFL's oldest, as two of the NFL's "Originals' meet for the 202nd time. Green Bay leads the series 100-95-6 but I'll have more to say about that a little later. The 12-3 Packers can clinch a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win or a tie against the Bears. The Packers can also get a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if the 11-4 Seattle Seahawks lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers. As for Chicago, 'Da Bears can clinch an NFC playoff berth with a win but there also are two other pathways for the Bears to secure a postseason spot. They need 8-7 Arizona to lose at the 9-6 Los Angeles Rams OR, if the Bears and Cardinals each finish Sunday's games with tie scores. Wouldn't that be some 'Daily Double?' Green Bay is on a five-game winning streak and Chicago on a three-game run. More on those streaks in a little bit, as well.

The 37year-old Aaron Rodgers has put up MVP-caliber numbers, completing 70.3% for 4,059 passing yards with 44 TDs and only five INTs. He has a 119.4 QB rating, which leads the league and is the second-best of his HOF career (122.5 QB rating in 2011). RB Jones has 1,062 rushing yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) plus 43 catches for two more TDs. WR Adams has missed two games but has 109 catches for 1.328 yards with 17 TDs plus TE Tonyan's 50 catches and 10 TDs is a big improvement from LY's starter, Jimmy Graham. This balanced offense leads the NFL in scoring 31.6 PPG.

Mitchell Trubisky has played a key role in the late-season turnaround, after he was benched for veteran Nick Foles during a Week 3 game against the Atlanta Falcons. He reclaimed his starting job in Week 12 and has posted a 99.3 passer rating since then with 1,243 passing yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Montgomery has run for 1,001 yards (4.4 YPC and 7 TDs) plus has 45 catches with another two TDs. WR Robinson has exactly 100 catches for 1,213 yards with six TDs and TE Jimmy Graham (remember that name?), has bounced back with a strong season, catching 48 passes for eight TDs.

Neither defense is anything special, with Green Bay allowing 23.5 PPG and Chicago giving up 22.3. Let me deal with the two teams' streaks. Green Bay is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, although both ATS losses have come in games the Packers won by SEVEN and EIGHT points (would have covered both at this point spread. Much has been made of Trubisky's and Chicago's late run but the team's 3-0 SU & ATS streak has come over the Jags, losers of 14 straight, the Vikings, losers of three straight and SIX straight ATS and the 4-11 Texans, losers of FOUR in a row going 1-3 ATS with the lone ATS win coming by a half-point!

As for recent head-to-head matchups, the Packers routed the Bears 41-25 at Lambeau in Week 12, as Rodgers threw four TDs (Bears led 41-10 entering the fourth quarter. The oldest rivalry in the NFL has been a rather one-sided affair in recent years, with Green Bay winning 18 of 21 against Chicago counting the postseason. As for games in which Rodgers  has started, the Packers are 20-5 (again, including the playoffs). It's been rumored that Trubisky's future with the Bears is tied to Chicago beating Green Bay in this one. If that's true, it's time to "Hit the Road, Mitch!"

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* Featured Sunday Total is on Arz/LAR Over at 4:25 ET.

The short-handed LA Rams (9-6) are home in Week 17 against NFC West rival Arizona (8-7). While the Rams are one game better than the Cardinals, they need a victory or a Chicago Bears (8-7) loss to the Green Bay Packers to make the playoff field. Meanwhile, the Cards are in a true win-or-go-home scenario. Beat the Rams and they are in the postseason for the first time since 2015. Lose, and the off season begins Sunday night.

The Cardinals were dealt a blow last week when they were completely taken out of their game in a 20-12 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The defeat came after consecutive victories over the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. QB Kyler Murray sustained a right leg injury on his final pass attempt Sunday but he WON'T miss here. "Yeah, I'll be playing," Murray said. "There's no holding back. If we lose, I'll be home chillin'. It's my leg. I'm fine. It's an opportunity that only we could ask for. It's an opportunity to play in the playoffs, get in and we're right where we want to be with everything that has happened this year." Murray's had a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 67.1% for 3,884 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He also has 816 rushing yards (on 6.2 YPC) with 11 TDs. RB Drake has blossomed in 2020 (919 yards and 10 TDs), giving Arizona the third-best running game in the league at 145.9 YPG. The Cardinals' defense has been outstanding at putting pressure on opposing QBs over the past three weeks. The "D" has 17 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, eight forced fumbles and 24 QB hits over that span. However, the defense has struggled overall, since Week 7. The Cards allowed just 18.7 PPG through their first six games but over their last nine, have allowed 28.7 (easy to see that's 10 more PPG!).

The Rams will be without QB Jared Goff, who sustained a thumb injury last Sunday at Seattle and underwent surgery. John Wolford, who has not taken a snap in a regular-season game, is scheduled to start for a team that has lost consecutive games. What's more, WR Cooper Kupp (92 catches / TDs) tested positive for COVID-19 and is out. Those are not the only issues the Rams are dealing with, as RB Darrell Henderson (high ankle sprain) is out while RB Malcolm Brown (shoulder) has been limited at practice. Rookie RB Cam Akers (ankle) will try to get back on the field after not playing against the Seahawks. The LA defense has been terrific all season, allowing 19.3 PGG (3rd) on 286.5 PPG (1st).

The situation looks dire for LA but head coach Sean McVay said, "I believe in this team. I trust in their mental toughness and I think that the overarching message is let's put everything that we have into this. Let's not be afraid to put it all out there one more time. Get back up off the mat and keep swinging and have no regrets no matter how this thing ends up." Recent history is sure on LA's side, as the Rams are on a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS run against the Cardinals (average MOV 21 points!), including a 38-28 victory in the desert (Week 13). We don't see over/under numbers this low very often and I'm expecting an excellent game from Murray and for the make-shift LA offense to score against an Arizona D which has been giving up plenty of points since late-October. Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* AFC West Showdown is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET.

Let me first address "the elephant in the room." The Raiders' once promising season was derailed by FIVE losses in the last six games following a 6-3 start. Their playoff hopes were extinguished by Jon Gruden's dubious decision in the closing minutes last week that resulted in a 26-25 last-second loss to Miami. That leaves the 7-8 Raiders (7-8) outside the playoffs for the 17th time in the past 18 seasons, as they play at Denver in their regular season finale. Here it comes! The Raiders have lost NINE consecutive regular season finales, FOUR in Denver!

However, one could argue that Denver's season was arguably 'over' before it even began. Von Miller suffered a freak season-ending ankle injury six days before the opener, and the cavalcade of injured teammates followed. The injury epidemic and the coronavirus pandemic have been the primary drivers in Denver's FOURTH consecutive losing season and FIFTH straight year without a playoff berth. The Broncos had hoped to see QB Drew Lock make a big leap after he had an impressive ending to 2019 but the second-year QB out of Missouri has struggled. Lock has thrown more interceptions (15) than TD passes (14), while completing only 57.0% (he has at least one turnover in 11 straight games). That gives him a pathetic QB rating of 72.5. The offense averages just 19.5 PPG (29th), while allowing 27.6 PPG (25th). Turnovers, or the lack of forcing them, have contributed greatly to Denver's offensive AND defensive woes. Denver has 32 giveaways and just 12 takeaways, one shy of the franchise low set in 2008. Its turnover differential of minus-20, is double that of the next worst team (the 49ers are at minus-10)!

Back to the Raiders. OK, they have nothing to play for in the standings but I like the fact this team is in that spot (we've seen how the Raiders have folded when games 'meant something'). Individually, TE Darren Waller is putting the finishing touches on one of the most productive seasons in Raiders history. He has 98 catches for 1,079 yards on the season (8 TDs) and needs seven catches to break Hall of Famer Tim Brown's single-season franchise record of 104 set in 1997. Second-year RB Jacobs needs just 24 yards to crack the 1,000-yard mark in his first two seasons plus QB Carr can put the final touch on what's been a career season (67.6% for 3,732 yards with 25 TDs and just seven INTs / QB rating of 102.2). 

The Raiders are 5-2 SU on the road this season, including a 40-32 win at KC in Week 5 (Chiefs ONLY loss of the season). The Raiders routed the Broncos 37-12 in Las Vegas (Week 10), while intercepting Lock FOUR times. Remember, this is NOT your father's Broncos, as they've lost FOUR of their last five season finales. 'Second verse, same as the first (Week 10)!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

There are two things we are sure about in the NFC East and that is the division winner will finish with a losing record, making them the FIFTH team since the NFL-AFL merger to enter the playoffs with a losing record, and only the THIRD to do so during a 16-game season. However, we know that the defending champion Eagles are the ONLY team in the division with NOTHING to play for on Sunday! The 6-9 Cowboys and 5-10 Giants meet at MetLife Stadium and the victor will keep its division title hopes alive for at least a few more hours. Both teams need a victory by the Philadelphia Eagles over the visiting Washington Football Team on Sunday night to clinch the crown. As the Cowboys and Giants take the field Sunday afternoon, it's two teams headed in the opposite direction The Giants won FOUR in a row from Week 9-13, including that HUGE 17-12 upset at Seattle. However, the Giants are 0-3 SU and ATS since that win, as the offense has scored a total of just 26 points! Meanwhile, 'left for dead' at 3-9, the Cowboys enter with THREE straight wins (3-0 ATS).

It's been a "Year of Redemption" for veteran QB Andy Dalton, who has the Cowboys averaging 36.0 PPG in their winning streak, while completing 66.3% for an average of 257.0 YPG through the air with seven TDs and just one INT. Elliott missed a game for the first time in career in Week 15 but ran for 105 yards (just his second 100-yard game in 2020) last week. Dalton's has a terrific WR trio in Cooper (86 catches), Lamb (69) and Gallup (55), with all three having five TD grabs. TE Schultz has 56 catches and four TDs.

I'm not sure how the Giants' sad-sack offense can keep up with the Cowboys in this one and while Daniel Jones was a full participant in practice during the week, the second-year QB had just nine TD passes in 423 attempts this season. The Giants do not have a RB in the class of "Zeke" and their receiving corps has nowhere near the talent of Dallas' group.

The Cowboys’ 37-34 home victory over the Giants back in Week 5 was their SEVENTH consecutive win in the series, going 6-1 ATS with an average margin of victory of 12 points. What changes here? I say NOTHING. The Cowboys win and then get to root for the Eagles to beat Washington on SNF.

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 4:00 ET.

When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) was a co-favorite with USC to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0 (with THREE "close calls''), Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washington at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks replaced the Huskies in the championship game. In less than a week, Oregon went from understudy to center stage. Oregon made the most of the opportunity by defeating host USC 31-24 for the championship. The victory gave Oregon (25th in both the AP and CFP) the Pac-12's automatic berth to a New Year's Six game. 

Waiting for them will be 8-3 Iowa State (No. 10 CFP / No. 12 AP) in the Fiesta Bowl on Jan 2 in Glendale, Ariz. The Cyclones lost their season opener at home to ULL but then won SEVEN of their next eight games, including a 37-30 home win over then-No. 18 Oklahoma and a 23-20 road win at then-No. 17 Texas (it was Iowa St's first win in Austin since 2010). The Cyclones have never won a championship in the Big 12 or their previous league, the Big Eight. Iowa State's last conference title came back in 1912 (MVC). Iowa State made its first-ever appearance in the Big 12 championship game on Dec 19 but couldn't beat Oklahoma second time, falling 27-21.

This is Mario Cristobal's third season at Oregon, having led the Ducks to back-to-back bowls while going 9-4 and 12-2. Despite losing QB Herbert to the NFL, the Ducks' current QB Tyler Shough has been a solid replacement, passing for 1,480 yards with 13 TDs and five INTs plus running for 263 yards on 4.2 YPC and two TDs. RB Dye has a team-high 391 yards on 7.0 YPC plus his eight receptions have averaged 27.6 YPC with four TDs. Fellow RB Verdell was coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons but has just 285 yards on 4.4 YPC with three TDs. A trio of WRs have combined for 50 catches and just five TDs. Oregon is averaging 33.7 PPG (30th) but allowing 27.3 PPG (55th) on 409.5 YPG (67th).

Iowa St QB Purdy entered 2020 off a 2019 season in which he accounted for 35 TDs (27 passing / 8 rushing) and has completed 66.4% for 2,594 yards with 18 TDs and nine INTs (added four rushing TDs). Speaking of running the football, Breece Hall leads the nation with 1,436 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and with 19 rushing TDs. WR Hutchinson leads with 60 catches (4 TDs) and TE Kolar has 39 catches with a team-high six TD receptions. Iowa St averaged 32.8 PPG (36th) on 449.1 YPG (26th), which works just fine with a defense allowing 21.8 PPG on 344.3 YPG (ranks 29th in both categories. Defensively, the Ducks are allowing 28.0 PPG.

Iowa St's early upset by ULL was fueled by a 95 KO return TD and a 78-yard TD pass. The Iowa St defense held ULL to just 277 yards for the game, 78 of which came on that TD pass. The Cyclones' other two losses were 24-21 at then-No. 6 Oklahoma St and then 27-21 vs Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, when Purdy threw THREE interceptions!

I'm not sure a top Pac 12 team is anywhere near in the class of a top Big 12 team and believe Iowa St will demonstrate just that in this contest. Head coach Matt Campbell was 34-15 at Toledo with four bowl appearances and after a 3-9 first season (2016) in Ames, has now led the Cyclones to a FOURTH straight bowl. The Cyclones were not able to win that elusive conference championship but how about capping off the season with a win in the school's first-ever appearance in a New Year's Six Bowl! That's my bet. You in? I guess if you're reading this, you are!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on NC State at 12:00 ET.

Both teams in Saturday's Gator bowl won their final games of the 2020 regular season on Dec 5, as Kentucky won 41-18 at home over a 2-8 South Carolina team, while NC State beat Ga Tech in Raleigh 23-13. However, that's where all similarity to their respective 2020 seasons ends. Mark Stoops got the head job at Kentucky back in 2013 but went just 12-25 in his first three seasons. However, Kentucky entered this season off FOUR straight bowl seasons. Yes, Stoops and the Wildcats are in a FIFTH straight bowl this season but don't forget, Kentucky is just 4-6. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2), before the Wolfpack slipped to 4-8 in 2019. NC St was picked to finish 11th in the ACC's preseason poll but enter this game 8-3 

Kentucky opened 2-2, beating Miss St 24-2 and winning at Tennessee but its only two wins in its last six games came against 0-9 Vandy and 2-8 South Carolina, which played without its head coach and several key starters. QB Trey Wilson threw for just 1,095 yards in 10 games, as Kentucky ranks 121st with 124.1 YPG passing. WR Ali has 49 catches but averages a puny 9.4 YPC with just one TD. No other player has caught more than 14 passes. RBs Rodriguez (701 yards on 6.9 YPC and 9 TDs) and Rose (518 yards on 5.5 YPC and 2 TDs) join QB Wilson (410 yards and five TDs) to give the Wildcats a good ground game (almost 180 YPG). However, Kentucky is averaging just 21.7 PPG (107th). 

In comparison, the NC State offense is averaging 31.1 PPG (45th), just shy of 10 PPG more than Kentucky. Last year's starting QB Leary began the season with some COVID issues and when he got back on the field, suffered a broken leg in mid-October. Bailey Hockman has taken over and has accounted for 14 touchdowns and thrown just five interceptions in seven games since replacing Leary against Duke. After a 44-41 home OT loss to Miami, NC St finished 4-0 with Hockman throwing seven TDs and three INTs. He has two good RBs to provide balance in Knight (736 yards on 5.6 YPC with nine TDs) and Person (635 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs). WRs Emezie, Thomas and Carter have a combined 102 catches with 13 TDs plus TE Angeline has 27 catches and six TDs.

I guess the fact that Kentucky plays in the SEC and NC State in the ACC is the reason the Wildcats are favored but I "just don't get it!" The Wildcats have the second-worst offense in the Power Five, lost to SEC finalists Alabama and Florida by a combined score of 97-13 and have two wins in the past 11 weeks against teams that went a combined 2-17). North Carolina' strong finish moved them into the top-25 at No. 23 in the CFP rankings and No. 24 in the AP. Back to Kentucky, it's 0-3 vs ranked teams this season (Ala, Fla & Ga), scoring a total of just 16 points. Now I'm NOT putting NC St in a class with those SEC powerhouses but just how do the Wolfpack rate as an underdog to this Kentucky team. The Wolfpack's four consecutive victories is the team's best such stretch to end a regular season since 2008. How about FIVE in a row? I think so!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sugar Bowl play (The Rematch) is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET.

Ohio St led 16-0 through the first 25 minutes of last season's semi final against Clemson, but Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Etienne led a comeback that put the Tigers up 29-23. The Buckeyes drove to the Tigers' 23 with a chance to potentially win the game but Justin Fields was intercepted in the end zone with 37 seconds left in the game. Lawrence had 259 passing yards and a touchdown plus 107 yards and a rushing TD, while Etienne had 134 all-purpose yards and three TDs.

According to Ohio St head coach Ryan Day, that loss has reverberated for nearly a year among the Buckeyes. "Fresh off of that game, it was right on our minds, and something that when we got back to work and winter workouts, January, February, it was right there for us," Day said Sunday. "Coming off that game, we just didn't get over it in one day. It took time. "There was even a sign with the score posted in the Buckeyes' weight room , an honor usually reserved for rival Michigan.

The Big Ten decided to postpone its season on August 11, while the ACC said 'full steam ahead.' The Big Ten eventually reversed course and returned in late October but was left with a 'short' season and no margin for error. The Buckeyes were unable to play the six games they needed to be eligible but NATURALLY, the Big Ten changed that rule and Ohio St won a unimpressive 22-10 victory over Northwestern in the Big Ten title game. However, if you had paid attention to the CFP committee throughout the weekly ranking process, there was NO way the Buckeyes were NOT making the 'Final 4.'

Leave it to Dabo to defend the 'honor' of the ACC and SEC. Swinney said he felt the six-game resume of Ohio State put the Buckeyes on a different playing field than many of the other contenders. Swinney backed up his feelings by ranking the Buckeyes No. 11 in the final coaches' poll of the season. In his own words. "I think any time you step in between the lines, the game of football, there's a lot that can happen. A lot," Swinney said. "I mean, heck, in 2017, we lost to a three-win or four-win Syracuse team and still went to the playoffs. So anything can happen. Guys can get hurt. There's a lot. So I think the fact that we're going to have 11 games as well as the SEC teams -- I mean, you look at Florida and Texas A&M and Alabama. I mean, these teams are going to have 11 games this year. It's incredible and I think the Big Ten had the same opportunity and they chose not to play, and I think the only reason they ended up playing is because of the leadership of the SEC and the ACC and the Big 12, and have demonstrated that we can do it and do it in a safe way. So it's been an unbelievably challenging season, that's for sure. Enough said. 

ALL of what Swinney said is true but I can't see how ranking Ohio St No. 11 helps his team. Lawrence's record speaks for itself (34-1 as a starter) but after throwing 66 TDs and just 16 INTs in his first two seasons, his ratio was 22-7 in 2020 (missed two games). Also, what's up with Etienne? He ran for more than 1,600 yards in each of the previous two seasons but had just 882 yards in 2020. Ohio State's Justin Fields has completed 72.6% for 1,521 with 15 TDs and five INTs in six games plus RBs Sermon (675 yards on 8.0 YPC) and Teague (449 yards on 5.0 YPC) give Ohio St plenty of offensive balance.

Looking strictly at the numbers, Ohio St and Clemson are clones. Ohio St averages 44.9 PPG (Clemson 42.5) and allows 17.5 PPG (Clemson 21.0). That said, Clemson has played the tougher AND more challenging schedule (11 games to six) and one HAS to admit that Fields' worst two games came against Ohio St's toughest opponents, Indiana and Northwestern. I've never been one to pay too much attention to "bulletin board" motivation like Dabo ranking Ohio St 11th but Ohio St has waited an entire year for a rematch with Clemson and couldn't possibly have more to prove in this game. I will GLADLY take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Eye Opener is on Georgia at 12:00 ET.

Cincinnati won the American Athletic Conference championship game in a squeaker (27-24 over Tulsa), to finish the regular season 9-0. After Notre Dame was soundly defeated by Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game, there was talk that maybe the Bearcats were deserving of finishing among the top -our teams in the CFP. The 9-0 Bearcats finished No. 8. 10-1 Notre Dame (No. 4) and 8-1 Texas A&M (No. 5) finishing ahead of Cincy was not really a surprise but when the Bearcats also fell behind 8-2 Oklahoma (No. 6) and 8-3 Florida (No. 7) it became clear that the committee NEVER considered them a 'Final 4' option. 

As the top-ranked Group of 5 school, Cincy got a New Year's Six Bowl bid to the Peach Bowl, where it will meet a 7-2 Georgia team that finished No. 9 in the final rankings. Georgia was the AP's preseason No. 4 team but the Bulldogs lost BADLY in both of their "biggest" tests in 2020, losing 41-24 at Alabama and 44-28 in Jacksonville to Florida. Yes, the Bearcats enter the game with a 'chip on their shoulders,' but DON'T make the mistake of thinking Georgia DOESN'T have anything to play for (prove) in this game. 

The Bearcats are led by QB Desmond Ridder, the AAC offensive player of the year. He's completing 66.4% for 2,090 passing yards, with 17 TDs and six INTs. He has also rushed for 609 yards (7.2 YPC) and a team-high 12 scores. Gerrid Doaks has rushed for a team-high 673 yards (4.7 YPC / 7 TDs), as the Bearcats rank 14th with 225.0 YPG on the ground. The offense has averaged 39.3 PPG (15th) but it's Cincy's defense which is the standout unit. The Bearcats allow 16.0 PPG (8th) on 314.4 YPG (13th).

Speaking of defense, most pundits claimed Georgia owned the nation's finest defense as the 2020 season got underway. However, as noted above, that defense was NOT able to contain either Alabama (41 points) or Florida (44 points) but this just in, those are two SPECTACULAR offensive teams. Including those two poor efforts, Georgia finished the regular season allowing 19.9 PPG (21st) on 322.8 YPFG (15th). Georgia expected Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman would lead the offense in 2020 but he opted out prior to the start of the year. JT Daniels (a USC transfer) was coming off an injury and his rehab plus COVID issues kept him on the sidelines until late in the  season. However, he's led Georgia to THREE straight wins, throwing for 839 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (Bulldogs averaged 41.6 PPG in that span). 

I'm a big fan of Cincy head coach Luke Fickell who said this about playing in a New Year's six Bowl game, "It's huge for our program. If you want to claim you deserve an opportunity or a shot, this is an opportunity, this is a shot." However, this is the FIFTH consecutive year under head coach Kirby Smart that the Bulldogs will play in a New Year's Six Bowl or the CFP. "I'll be honest, when your intention is to win the game, that's not going to change between his guys and your guys," Smart said. "Every coach is going to try to find an angle that gives their guys an edge or competitive advantage, whether that's them being ranked ahead of us or whatever. I don't know Group of Five, Power 5, all those languages, that's for (media). My language is football, and they've got a good team. They haven't been beaten."

Here's the bottom line. I don't believe Cincy is a top-10 team. One can say the Bearcats beat three ranked teams this season but that trio is comprised of Army, SMU and Tulsa. That's not exactly a 'Murderer's Row" of football powers. Getting back to the Georgia defense, taking away the Alabama and Florida games, it allowed 13 PPG on 253 YPG. Including all foes, Georgia led the nation in allowing just 69.3 YPPG on 2.3 YPC. If Ridder and the Cincy offense can't establish the run, the Bearcats will be in for L-O-N-G day. That's my bet. Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Miami-Fl at 5:30 ET.

The 7-3 Oklahoma State Cowboys take on the 8-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Cheez-It Bowl on Dec 29 in Orlando, Fl. OSU is ranked 21st in the CFP rankings but is unranked in the AP, after opening the season 15th in the preseason poll. Miami was NOT ranked in the AP's preseason poll (coming off a 6-7 season, including an 'ugly' 14-0 bowl loss to La Tech) but enters the game ranked 18th in both the AP and CFP.

I've believed all season that Oklahoma St has been overrated. Mike Gundy always gets the Cowboys into a bowl game (this marks the 15th straight bowl appearance for OSU under Gundy) but there's been a slippage in his offense the last two seasons. OSU averaged 39.5 PPG in 2015, 38.6 PPG in 2016, 45.0 PPG in 2017 and 38.4 PPG in 2018. The 2019 season saw OSU average 32.5 PPG, despite RB Chuba Hubbard rushing for 2,094 yards (6.4 YPC) and 21 TDs. He was a unanimous All-America selection last season but he's looked disinterested all season (just 625 yards on 4.7 PPC with 5 TDs!) and decided to opt out earlier this month to prepare for the NFL draft (which 'lucky' team will land this gem?). OSU's offense fell under 30 PPG in 2020 (29.5), led by the overrated Spencer Sanders. He's thrown for a modest 1,702 yards with a TD/INT ratio of just 10-8. He's rushed for 244 yards with only two TDs. He's a two-year starter who has 19 INTs in 19 games! Just what am I missing?

Lining up opposite Sanders is a true dual-threat QB in Miami's D'Eriq King, who has passed for 2,573 yards with 22 TDs and just five interceptions, while rushing for 520 yards (4.3 YPC) and four TDs. Miami recently received some great news in that King announced that he will return for his 6th season of college football with the 'Canes. WR Mike Harley (49 catches / 14.9 YPC / 6 TDs) is King's biggest playmaker plus TEs Brevin Jordan and Will Mallory (both considered NFL prospects) have combined for 48 catches and nine TDs.

Oklahoma State's defense is allowing 22.4 PPG (32nd) but in its three losses, gave up 41 points to both Texas and Oklahoma and 29 points to TCU and in a win over Texas Tech (a 4-6 team), allowed 44 points. Miami got some bad news when both star DEs, Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche, said they were skipping the bowl game to prepare for the draft.

Miami gave up 104 points in its losses to Clemson and North Carolina, two of the nation's most prolific offenses. However, in Miami's eight wins, the 'Canes allowed just 19.5 PPG.

I'm pretty confident that Sanders has NOTHING in common with Clemson's Lawrence (22-4 ratio and 7 rush TDs) or North Carolina's Howell (27-6 ratio and 5 TDs). In last season's Independence Bowl, Miami lost 14-0 to La Tech, becoming the first Power 5 school to be shut out by a Group of 5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. If Miami needs more motivation, how about bouncing back from its season-ending 66-26 loss to North Carolina (at home, no less). UNC gained 778 yards of total offense, the most yards Miami has ever allowed. RBs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams combined for 544 rushing yards, the most combined rushing yards by two teammates in FBS history, and five TDs. Miami wins this HANDILY!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The 10-4 Tennessee Titans visit the 11-3 Green Bay Packers for a SNF matchup of first-place teams that pit the NFL's first- and third-ranked scoring offenses. Tennessee leads the league at 31.1 PPG and Green Bay is 'FAR' behind at 31.0. The Titans are tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South (but hold the tiebreaker) plus will know well before they take the field if the Colts won or lost at Pittsburgh. As for the Packers, they already know the Saints moved to 11-4 with their rout of the Vikings on Christmas (Packers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with New Orleans) plus will also know just before kickoff the result of the Rams/Seahawks contest. If the Rams win, Green Bay will clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed by beating the Titans.

The Titans made a run to the AFC championship game last season on the 'legs' of Derrick Henry and the "game management" skills of QB Ryan Tannehill. Henry's 'legs' remain as good as ever, as he leads the NFL with 1,679 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC with 15 TDs. What's been different on offense for Tennessee in 2020 has been the play of Tannehill. He's having a "career season," completing 66.5% for 3,482 yards with 31 TDs and just five INTs (QB rating is 110.4). The team's improved offense has made up for the Tennessee D allowing 25.8 PPG (up from 20.7 and 18.9 the previous two seasons) on 390.5 YPPG, which ranks 26th (about 45 YPG more than in 2019),

Green Bay's defense is allowing 24.2 PPG (14th) but just 337.7 YPG (8th). However, the Packers are counting on Aaron Rodgers and the offense to 'win the day!' Rodgers has completed 69.6% for 3,828 yards with 40 TDs and just four INTs, giving him an NFL-best QB rating of 118.0. It's just another 'ho-hum' season for the future Hall of Famer. WR Adams believes he ranks with the best in the business and may be right, with 98 catches for 15 TDs despite missing two games. TE Tonyan has 49 catches and 10 TDs. Aaron Jones is one of the league's better all-purpose backs, rushing for 968 yards on 5.4 YPC with 8 TDs plus catching 41 passes for another four TDs.

Since losing 34-17 at home to the Colts in Week 10, the Titans have won FOUR of five, averaging 37.4 PPG. The Titans and Packers have each committed a league-low NINE turnovers but the Packers haven't committed a turnover in their last FOUR games (Green Bay is 10-0 when it doesn't have a turnover!). The Packers are 13-2 SU at Lambeau field since the start of the 2019 season (7-1 LY / 6-1 TY) and REALLY want that No. 1 seed. "The Pack" can't control what Seattle does vs the Rams but they can "take care of business" here, in their final regular season game of 2020. That's the bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

How does one explain the Rams losing 23-20 at home last Sunday to the 0-13 NY Jets (as a 17 1/2-point favorite) when they had a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win??? Were the Rams "looking ahead" to this game in Seattle with the Seahawks? "The only thing that makes you feel better is when you say, ‘All right, let's learn from it, let's own it, and let's move forward accordingly,'" Rams head coach Sean McVay said. "Because dwelling on it or getting still (ticked) off about it really doesn't do you any good for how you move forward." Here's the bottom line. The Rams won the first meeting against Seattle 23-16 back on Nov 15 in LA, as Jared Goff threw for 302 yards and Malcolm Brown rushed for a pair of TDs. That means the Rams would own the first tiebreaker against the Seahawks should they win Sunday to sweep the season series and go into the final week with matching 10-5 records. Speaking of clinching a playoff spot, the Seahawks did just that, holding on for a 20-15 win at Washington, in a game that was NOT as close as the final. Seattle has now clinched its NINTH playoff berth in head coach Pete Carroll's 11 seasons. "(That) was a really big weekend for us," Carroll said. "Real happy with the game that we put together, the way that the whole approach of it worked out well. We got the win that we were looking for and we got a little bit of help too, the Jets, getting their game. All of that adds together and sets up a really big opportunity this weekend coming up."

Jared Goff has had a solid if unspectacular season, completing 68.0% for 3,718 yards with 20 TDs and 12 INTs. He has an excellent WR duo in Kupp (84 catches) and Woods (82) plus TEs Higbee and Everett have a combined 75 receptions (Higbee has 5 TD catches). The running game has NOT missed Gurley but the Rams will be without leading rusher Cam Akers (591 yards on 4.8 YPC), who suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss to New York. LA's in playoff position and has a chance to capture the NFC West because of its defense. The Rams allow just 19.2 PPG (3rd) on 286.1 YPG (1st). LA ranks first in allowing 192.0 YPG through the air and 2nd in allowing just 94.1 YPG on the ground. To win in Seattle, LA will need a great game from its defense.

Seattle jumped out to the best record in the NFC early on, then had a midseason swoon but back-to-back wnsn have them back on the cusp of winning the NFC West. QB Russell was near-perfect early on but then 'cooled off' but what is one's definition of cooling off? With two weeks to go, he's completed 70.2% for 3,806 yards with 37 TDs and 13 TDs plus has run for 475 yards on 6.3 YPC. He's got a terrific trio of WRs in Lockett (85 catches with 8 TDs), Metcalf (74 catches and 10 TDs) and Moore (33 catches / 6 TDs). As Carson (568 yards on 5.0 YCPC with 5 TDs / 32 catches with 5 TDs) has regained his health, the Seattle running game is again very good. Speaking of defense, Seattle allowed 30.4 PPG through its first eight games but has allowed just 16.0 PPG (that two TDs less per game!) over its last six.

CenturyLink Field has been easily one of the toughest home venues in the NFL and even with COVID restrictions taking away Seattle's "12th man" in 2020, the Seahawks are 6-1 SU at home this season. This contest is their final home game of the regular season and the Seahawks aren't just satisfied with a playoff berth (which they clinched last Sunday), as they haven't won an NFC West title since 2016 and haven't hosted a playoff game since January 2017. A win here (no pointspread to worry about) will give them the NFC West title and at least ONE home game in the postseason! "The Price is Sure Right" on the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East at 9-7 in 2019, while the HUGELY disappointing Dallas Cowboys finished 8-8. When the season opened, the Eagles and Cowboys (with new head coach Mike McCarthy) were expected to battle for the East title. However, both teams have struggled all season with Philly at 4-9-1 and Dallas at 5-9 but ironically, BOTH remain in the hunt for the NFC East title, as 6-8 Washington is the division-leader (the Giants, like the Cowboys, are 5-9). These teams met back in Week 8 at Philly, when the starting QBs for the game were rookie Ben DiNucci for the Cowboys and veteran Carson Wentz for the Eagles. That situation has been reversed here, as 33-year-old veteran Andy Dalton is under center for Dallas, while 22-year-old rookie Jalen Hurts makes his THIRD straight start for Philly.

Hurts is 1-1 as the starter since replacing Wentz. The Eagles pulled an upset of New Orleans in his first start (167 yards passing one TD / 106 rushing yards) but then lost in Arizona (338 passing yards and three TDs / 63 yards rushing and one TD). RB Miles Sanders has missed some time but it's been a good sophomore season for the RB with 810 yards on 5.4 YPC with five TDs. TE Ertz has been hurt and while he's returned the last three games, he's had just two catches in each one (he caught 88 and 116 passes the L2 years with 14 TDs!). Goedert (43 catches / 3 TDs) has filled in well but Philly's WR corps has seen Jackson miss almost all season (he may play here) with Ward leading with 50 catches (6 TDs) and Fulgham catching 45 with 4 TDs. The Eagles are averaging 21.6 PPG (25th) and allowing 25.8 PPG (22nd).

Dak Prescott was again putting up big numbers before his injury but Dallas wasn't winning. Little changed after he went down but all of a sudden, the Cowboys won 30-7 at Cincy and 41-33 at home to the 49ers. Veteran Andy Dalton has been efficient in the wins, completing 62.5% with four TDs and zero INTs (has averaged a modest 197.0 YPG through the air). He has a VERY talented trio of WRs in Cooper (82 catches / 5 TDs), rookie Lamb (66  / 4 TDs) and Gallup (49 / 3 TDs)  plus TE Schultz (53 / 4 TDs) is solid. RB Elliott has underachieved (832 yards on just 3.9 YPC with 5 TDs). He missed his first-ever regular season game due to a calf injury last week but did resistance training at practice Wednesday and could be back in the lineup Sunday. Tony Pollard scored twice and gained 132 yards from scrimmage (69 yards on  5.8 YPC with two TDs), against the Niners in Elliott's absence. The Dallas defense has been a MAJOR issue all season, allowing 30.9 PPG.

The winner here could have a chance to win the division title if Washington loses at home to the Panthers today. Philadelphia won the first meeting 23-9 and supporters will point to this stat. Since 2017 when they won the Super Bowl, the Eagles are 11-2 in games they must win or they'd be eliminated from the playoffs or mathematically knocked out of contention. However, the Eagles enter this contest having lost FIVE in a row on the road, going 0-5 ATS while allowing 30.0 PPG. Dalton has been very solid in the Cowboys' back-to-back wins (see above) plus he's led the Cowboys to wins in three of their last five, completing 66.1 percent of his passes for 1,097 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs during that five-game stretch. He has not been intercepted since Dec 8. Dallas is also plus-seven in turnover margin the last two games, after being among the NFL's worst at minus-13 through the first 12 games. Those seven takeaways in two games came after Dallas forced just 11 in the first 12 games. Again, neither team can control the Carolina/Washington outcome but the winner just could be playing a meaningful game in Week 17, IF Washington loses. My pick says Dallas wins.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Was FB team at 4:05 ET.

NFL 2020 has been a trying season for all the with the raging pandemic and Washington head coach Ron Rivera has had the added issue of his skin cancer diagnosis and treatment. Rivera coached the Carolina Panthers the previous NINE seasons and led them to a Super Bowl appearance after the 2015 season. When Carolina and Washington last met (Week 17 of 2019), Washington beat Carolina and Rivera was fired two days later. Now, more than a year after being fired from his first head NFL coaching job, he can clinch the NFC East title by beating the team that fired him. Yes, the 6-8 Washington FB Team can become division champs with a win!

The Panthers "got rid of Rivera," but it's clear Carolina's woes run 'deep.' It sure didn't help that superstar RB McCaffrey has played just THREE games. QB Teddy Bridgewater's numbers are not awful (69.8% for 3,360 yards with 14 TDs and eight INTs) but Carolina 'limps in' with SEVEN losses in its last eight games (Panthers are 4-10 on the season). The Carolina offense averages 23.1 PPG (22nd) and its defense allows 25.4 PPG (20th). Most troubling is the fact that the Panthers haven't been able to 'close out' games. The Panthers have lost EIGHT games in which Bridgewater had the ball in his hands on a late fourth-quarter drive with a chance to take the lead or tie. "When you have the opportunity to have that last shot, you want to be able to deliver," Bridgewater said. "And we haven't been able to deliver. We want to get over that hump." Bridgewater is 3-10 as the team's starting QB this season and owner David Tepper seemed to put him on notice with his comments this week. Bridgewater still has two years left on his contract, but the Panthers could have a top-five pick in next year's draft. Blame Bridgewater if you like but about maybe the idea that head coach Matt Rhule would be a difference-maker was 'a bridge too far!' Check his resume. Why give him that 'monster' contract?

Washington opened 2-7 but then won FOUR straight (4-0 ATS), before losing 20-15 at home to Seattle last Sunday (a FIFTH straight ATS win for Washington!). The QB situation has been a revolving door and rookie RB Gibson (659 yards on 4.7 YPC and 11 TDs) plus WR McLaurin (80 catches) BOTH missed the Seattle game. McLaurin is out here but Gibson may play. It seems like Alex Smith will be back starting at QB and his recovery from that brutal leg injury has been one of the season's "feel-good" storylines. Smith is 4-1 as the starter two years removed from breaking his right leg in gruesome fashion. If Smith makes enough progress that his strained right calf feels good enough to play, he will start. If not, it'll be 2019 first-round pick-turned third-stringer-turned starter again Dwayne Haskins, despite being disciplined for breaking COVID-19 protocol by partying without a mask last weekend.

That said, the key to a Washington win is a defense that has allowed just 14.4 PPG over its last five, against a Carolina offense that has 'failed to finish, as noted above. How 'sweet would it be' for Rivera to clinch a division title against the team that fired him last season to bring in the 'legendary' Matt Rhule, The team "without a nickname" clinches a division title today. How fitting for Daniel Snyder, an owner without a 'FB brain!'

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

"Once upon a time" Pittsburgh was 11-0 and had some wondering that just maybe, the Steelers had a chance at a 16-0 regular season. However, the 'dream' ended in "unlucky" Week 13 at home vs Washington, 23-17. Now, after back-to-back losses at Buffalo and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh's 'dream season' is on the verge of turning into a 'nightmare!' The Steelers have fallen two games back of the Chiefs for the AFC's No. 1 and currently loses a tiebreaker with the 11-3 Bills for the No. 2 seed. A loss here to the Colts and Pittsburgh could wind up with the No. 4 seed. The Colts are tied with the Tennessee Titans at 10-4 but Tennessee holds the tiebreaker, meaning the Colts have slipped to the No. 6 seed, as they also lose a tiebreaker to the 10-4 Browns. Indy can't afford a slip up either, as both the Dolphins (current No. 7 seed) and Ravens are both 9-5. Yes, there is plenty on the line in this game.

While the Steelers have clinched a spot in the playoffs despite three straight losses, the Colts are surging, having won three in a row, as well as FIVE of six. Philip Rivers has delivered for Indy, as the team's major offseason FA signee has thrown for 3,753 (he'll top 4,000 yards for the EIGHTH straight season and 12th in his last 13) with 22 TDs and nine INTs. Rookie RB Taylor looked like a bust with just 428 rushing yards through his first nine games but he's averaged 103.5 YPG on 5.8 YPC over his last four (team is 4-0). Indy's defense checks in allowing 22.9 PPG (11th) on 334.1 YPG (7th) but I'll look a little closer into those numbers in my 'close!'

The 'wolves' are out after "Big Ben," as he's taken most of the blame for Pittsburgh's slump. It's fair to say he cannot throw the deep ball anymore but he does enter this game with 3,462 passing yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs on the season. He's got excellent depth in his WR corps, with Smith-Schuster catching 82 balls with 7 TDs, Johnson catching 77 with 6 TDs, rookie Claypool catching 53 with 8 TDs and Washington catching 28 with 5 TDs. TE Ebron has 51 catches but did miss practice (back) mid-week. However, RB Connor (663 yards on 4.3 YPC) did practice and should play. Snell (384 yards) filled in last week and had 84 yards, so while Connor's return would be nice, it's NOT a game-changer.

I believe the key is Pittsburgh defense. First let me go back for a 'peek inside' Indy's numbers. The Colts allowed just 14.0 PPG through their first four but their defense has been VERY mediocre since, allowing 26.4 PPG over its last 10 games. Pittsburgh's offensive woes are real, as the Steelers have averaged just 16.3 PPG in their three-game slide (also scored just 19 points vs a COVID-ravaged Baltimore team the week before the slide began) and "Big Ben" has averaged 178.5 YPG passing the last two games with three TDs and three TDs. However, the Pittsburgh defense has been at the top or right near it week after week. Pittsburgh currently ranks second in points allowed (18.9 per) and second in total D (297.9 YPG), while Its pass D also ranks second (193.3 YPG) and its rush D ranks 8th (104.6 YPG)

The game may be played without snow but it's going be VERY cold in Pittsburgh Friday and Saturday and Sunday's forecast doesn't expect temps to be much above freezing (good old-fashioned Steeler weather). Does it mean "all that much" that Pittsburgh has won SIX straight over Indy (5-1 ATS with a MOV of 14 points)? Maybe not, but it sure doesn't 'scare me away' from my Pittsburgh play!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Rivalry Game of the Year is on Liberty at 7:30 ET.

The Liberty Flames have posted their best regular season in school history (9-1) and look to finish with a second consecutive bowl win against Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have made history this year as well, completing the first unbeaten regular season in school and SBC history (8-0). These two both played in the Big South Conference (FCS) and have split their 14 meetings. The teams were scheduled to play on Dec 5 but the game was canceled due to COVID-19 protocols and precautions in the Flames' program. The Flames beat Georgia Southern in last year's Cure Bowl and were the third FBS team to win a bowl in their first season at the top level. As for Coastal Carolina, the Chanticleers will make their first bowl appearance in school history.

Hugh Freeze's Flames are led by QB Malik Willis, who has thrown for 2,040 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. He has added 807 yards rushing (tops on the team), averaging 6.7 YPC with 10 more TDs. A trio of RBs have combined for 1,628 rushing yards and 13 TDs, as the team ranks 8th with 252.2 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC). A trio of WRs have caught 82 passes, averaged 14.4 YPC and have 10 TD receptions. The offense is averaging 38.3 PG (17th) and the defense allows 19.2 PPG (17th) on 301.2 YPG (7th).

What a job Jamey Chadwell has done in just his third season (Chanticleers were 3-9 and 5-7 in his first two). Coastal has dual-threat QB as well in redshirt freshman Grayson McCall, who ranks 36th nationally in total offense with 2,643 yards. He's thrown for 2,170 yards (23 TDs / 2 INTs) and run for 473 yards (4.9 YPC / 6 TDs). RB Marable hasn't quite matched last season's numbers but has run for 84 yards on 5.2 YPC with 12 TDs (has 30 catches from another 7 TDs). Coastal runs for 22.32 YPG (15th). WR Heilegh (52 catches / 15.8 YPC 10 TDs) and TE Likely (25 catches / 20.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are McCall's main guys. The offense averages 37.5 PPG (18th) and the defense gives up 18.7 PPG (15th) on 340.7 YPG (26th).

Go back and check at the two teams' offense and defensive numbers and you'll see mirror images. Liberty's only loss came 15-14 at NC St, when it had a 39-yard field goal attempt blocked with 1:18 remaining in the game. Liberty is 8-2 ATS on the season and enters on a SEVEN-game ATS winning streak. Coastal Carolina is 8-2-1 ATS so again, it's hard to find too much difference in the teams. It was Liberty with the COVID-related problems that caused the Dec 5 to be canceled and the Flames haven't played since a 45-0 shutout of UMass on Nov 27. However, it was Coastal with the COVID issue which canceled its SBC championship game vs ULL on Dec 19, less than 48 hours before the scheduled kickoff. Chadwell said players in quarantine could be cleared by midweek prior to the bowl. We will see.

These old Big South rivals should go toe-to-toe here and I want the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:30 ET.

Much has changed since Arizona upset San Francisco 24-20 back in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The 49ers entered that game as the defending NFC champs (off a 13-3 regular season), while Arizona was coming off a 5-10-1 season but was looking forward to "what could be" with Kyler Murray coming off an impressive rookie season. However, as the teams get together for a rematch in Week 16, the 5-9 Niners are coming off a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys, a defeat that officially ended the team's postseason hopes. Meanwhile, the Cards beat the Eagles 33-26 last Sunday to get 8-6 and into the No. 7 seed in the NFC (final playoff spot). A final twist to this game is that BOTH teams will be playing on the State Farm Stadium field for the THIRD time in the last four weeks, as the 49ers have been forced to relocate from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca, because of COVID-19 restrictions in the region. The 49ers have lost their first two 'home' games in Arizona, falling 34-24 in Week 13 to Buffalo 34-24 and then a week later 23-15 to Washington 23-15

The 49ers lost more than just a game that eliminated them from playoff contention against Dallas. The team's best (only?) RB Raheem Mostert has been ruled out for the season after aggravating a high ankle sprain in the loss, while QB Nick Mullens suffered an elbow injury that the 49ers fear could require Tommy John surgery. Mullens was not playing all that well in place of Jimmy G (12 TDs / 12 INTs) but with Garoppolo unlikely to get medical clearance to return to game action either this week or in the finale against Seattle (per head coach Kyle Shanahan), the last man standing appears to be C.J. Beathard. What's more, the San Francisco defense, which was so much a part of last season's run to the Super Bowl, has been riddled with injuries throughout the season and enters this contest having allowed 32.7 PPG during its recent three-game slide.

The Cardinals will take the field in third-place in the NFC West, two games behind Seattle (10-4) and one back of the Los Angeles Rams (9-5). The Rams are at Seattle this Sunday and if the Cards win, they would be just ONE game back of both teams if the Rams win or be tied with the Rams if they lose, going into their matchup in LA in Week 17. Best case scenario for the Cards would be a win and a Chicago loss at Jacksonville, which would clinch a playoff spot. However, the Jags are on a 13-game losing streak. Then again, so were the Jets until last week. Murray threw for a season-best 406 yards and three TDs in last week's home win over Philadelphia. He's thrown for 3,637 yards with 26 TDs and 11 TDs in 2020, while adding 741 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) with 11 TDs. RB Drake leads the team with 874 yards on 4.1 YPC (9 TDs), as the Cards rank 4th in the league averaging 147.8 YPG on the ground. WR Hopkins ranks with the best in the NFL, hauling in 103 passes with six TDs. The Cards D has struggled at times but overall, comes in allowing 23.5 PPG on the season (13th).

I'm assuming the 49ers won't take a chance on Jimmy G but if they do, he couldn't possibly be "ready for primetime." It's likely Beathard will start or maybe even Josh Rosen, who the Niners claimed off the Tampa Bay practice squad to serve as Beathard's backup (Can I vote for Rosen?). Murray should have little trouble against a San Francisco defense that gave up 41 points without forcing a TO against an Andy Dalton-led Dallas team. Meanwhile, the 49ers coughed it up FOUR times, giving them 29 giveaways and a minus-11 TO margin on the season (both rank 2nd-worst in the NFL next to the Broncos). The Cards win with ease and depending how a few other games turn out Sunday, should be in excellent shape for an important Week 17 game, as well as a wild card game the following weekend.

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Bowl Game of the Week is on Houston at 3:30 ET.

The 2020 New Mexico Bowl will be played Christmas Eve in Frisco, Tx (near Dallas). The game is normally played in Albuquerque, NM but was relocated from New Mexico due to that state's health guidelines regarding intercollegiate athletics and travel amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Hawaii got its fourth win of the season with a 38-21 triumph over UNLV on Dec 12, evening its overall and Mountain West Conference marks at 4-4, then accepted the bowl invitation. The Houston Cougars who despite an overall 3-4 record (3-3 American Athletic Conference), are headed to their SEVENTH bowl in the last eight seasons but the first under second-year head coach Dana Holgorsen.

The Rainbow Warriors know all about appearing in bowl games the last two decades, with 11 appearances in that stretch. However, only ONE bowl appearance came in the 48 contiguous states, when a 12-0 Hawaii team played in and lost the 2008 Sugar Bowl (2007 season) 41-10 to Georgia (remember Colt Brennan?). Todd Graham is in his first season at Hawaii but has the Rainbow Warriors in their FOURTH bowl in the last five seasons. QB Chevan Cordeiro has thrown for 1,947 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs plus leads the team in rushing with 450 yards and with seven TDs. Fellow RB Turner has 271 yards (5.6 YPC / 5 TDs) plus has 29 catches with a team-high average of 15.8 YPC, as well as a team-high five TD receptions. A trio of WRs have combined for 93 catches but a total of only two TDs catches, while NONE of them average as much a 9.0 YPC! Hawaii's defense is allowing 29.3 PPG.

It's been a bumpy ride for teams all across college football but the Houston program is right up among the schools the virus has affected most. The Cougars had EIGHT games postponed, canceled or rescheduled due to COVID-19 issues. Between Nov 14 and this bowl game, Houston has played just one game, a 30-27 loss to Memphis on Dec 12. With QB King leaving for Mia-Fl as a graduate transfer, Clayton Tune has stepped in nicely at QB, with 1,832 passing yards (13 TDs / 7 INTs), along with adding 269 rushing yards and five TDs on the ground. RB Porter adds 394 yards on 4.1 YPC and four TDs. Five receivers have caught between 16 and 27 passes, averaging between 10.8 and 15.4 YPC. Stevenson leads with that 15.4 average and has four TDs among his 20 catches. Houston's offense has nice balance (268.1 YPG passing / 155.3 YPG rushing) in averaging 32.6 PPG but its defense allows 32.3 PPG.

Hawaii is traveling over 3,700 miles for this game, while Houston has to travel just a couple hundred miles. I believe Houston is the MUCH better team and oddsmakers agreed, as the Cougars opened around a 12-point favorite. The "early" money has been on Hawaii but that just helps as you should be able to lay less than double digits with Houston. I noted above that Houston has been 'tested' as much as any team in this pandemic-riddled season and I like head coach Holgorsen's pep talk. "I challenge (our players) to win this game so we can buy some rings that say 'COVID CHAMPS' on them, something to remember 2020 by," Holgorsen told Houston radio station SportsTalk 790 last week. "Let's do something to feel good about what happened in 2020. Let's get a ring, put it on the shelf and look at it and say, 'I remember 2020,' and tell your kids about it one day." Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 9* Late-Breaker (Montgomery Bowl) is on FAU at 7:00 ET.

The Montgomery Bowl (7-3 Memphis vs 5-3 FAU) was created after the cancellation of the Fenway Bowl. Memphis was 12-1 when it made a New Year's Six bowl appearance in last year's Cotton Bowl. The Tigers 'hung around' but eventually lost 53-39 to Penn St. Memphis will set a school record by playing in a bowl game for the seventh straight year. This Montgomery Bowl appearance vs FAU may feel like a 'step down' for Memphis but as I will allude to a bit later, the Tigers are desperate for a bowl win. This is the third bowl game in four years for the Owls and fifth since 2007. It's their first bowl outside Florida since 2008.

The Tigers are led by QB Brady White, who is capping a terrific career. He's thrown for 3,096 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs in 2020, following seasons of 4,014 yards with 33 TDs and 11 INTs in 2019 and 3,296 yards with 26 TDs and nine INTs in 2018. His "go-to" guy is WR Austin (60 catches / 17.1 YPC / 10 TDs), although the running game is fairly mediocre, averaging 142.0 YPG (85th). The defense has been a liability all season, allowing 29.7 PPG (contributing to the team's 3-7 ATS record).

FAU has a non-existent passing game (143.6 YPG ranks 117th) but a solid running game which averages 185.3 YPG (47th). However, the Owls own a solid defense, allowing 16.5 PPG (9th) on 326.4 YPG. Containing White will be a key for FAU and its pass D comes in allowing 175.6 YPG (12th in the nation).

As noted above, Memphis NEEDS a bowl win, as the Tigers haven't gotten one since a double-overtime victory over BYU in the 2014 Miami Beach Bowl. That's not all, as a check of the record book reveals that Memphis is on a 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS run in its last eight conference championship or bowl games. Meanwhile, FAU is 6-0 SU & ATS in similar contests. I'm taking the BIG points!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* New Orleans Bowl play is on La Tech at 3:00 ET.

7-5 Georgia Southern of the SBC will take on 5-4 Louisiana Tech of C-USA in Wednesday's New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome. This will be Georgia Southern's FOURTH bowl since moving up from the Football Championship Subdivision in 2014. The Eagles won postseason games in 2015 and 2018 before falling last year 23-16 to Liberty in the Cure Bowl. As for La Tech, securing a winning record for 2020 plus keeping its bowl streak alive, are on the line for the Bulldogs. How many are aware that Louisiana Tech's SIX-game bowl winning streak is the longest active mark for ANY team in the country.

Both teams come in with questions surrounding their QB situation. Shai Werts was the regular Georgia Southern QB for 10 games, but he missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. Justin Tomlin has started the last two but he departed the Dec 12 regular-season finale against Appalachian State with a second-quarter injury after rushing for 76 yards in the game. Miller Mosley, who's considered the team's third-string QB, threw for a touchdown and two interceptions after replacing Tomlin. Werts has accounted for 1,575 yards and 15 TDs from scrimmage and leads the Eagles in rushing with 649 yards, as Georgia Southern ranks 7th in the nation averaging 262.4 YPG. That shoulder injury has sidelined him for the team's last two games, but he has returned to practice and could play in the bowl game. Georgia Southern's defense is solid, allowing 22.3 PPG (31st) on 333.5 YPG (19th).

La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983  but KNEW it would miss QB J'Mar Smith, who threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement  was expected to be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. Anthony started for most of the season but severely injured his lower right leg when he was tackled late in the fourth quarter last Saturday in a blowout loss to TCU. Allen will get the start here and "on paper," this figures to be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs. La Tech has a non-existent rushing attack (97.7 YPG on the ground ranks 119th) and Anthony is a superior QB than Allen. However, La Tech finds a way into the end zone, averaging 29.3 PPG on the season, despite its 10-point effort vs TCU. The defense is another story, allowing 34.3 PPG (95th).

Here's the bottom line! Skip Holtz is finishing up his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2020 marks the SEVENTH consecutive season in which he's led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. As noted above, the Bulldogs have won EACH of the previous six. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. What's more, Louisiana Tech has not lost to a current Sun Belt Conference opponent since 1996, winning 18 in a row! You really want to give this team about a TD?

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* "Bowl Kickoff' is on BYU at 7:00 ET.

Josh Heupel was named head coach of the UCF Knights on December 5, 2017, replacing the departing Scott Frost, who had led UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Heupel continued the 'magic' in 2018, as UCF took a 12-0 record (AND a 25-game winning streak) into its Sugar Bowl game with LSU, where the Tigers snapped that win streak with a 40-32 victory (coming out party for Joe Burrow). UCF followed with a 10-3 season in 2019 but enters Tuesday's bowl game with amore modest record of 6-3. BYU head coach Kalani Sitake took over at Provo back in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, only the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6 again. Entering 2020, some of those BYU "faithful" who were questioning that extension.

CF opened 2-0 but then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa and Memphis. UCF rebounded to win THREE in a row but lost 36-33 at home to Cincy before finishing with a 58-46 win at USF. QB Gabriel is completing 61.7% for 2,353 yards with 30 TDs and just four INTs, while RBs McCrae (681 yards on 5.2 YPC with 9 TDs) and Anderson (614 yards on 5.6 YPC and four TDs) lead a running game averaging 212.6 YPG (). WR Williams (71 catches / 8 TDs) and Robinson (61 catches / 5 TDs) are both dangerous receivers. The offense averages 44.3 PPG (5th) on 585.6 YPG (5th) but the defense allows 31.4 PPG (78th) on 473.7 YPG (117th).

It didn't take long for Sitake to quiet the naysayers, as BYU rolled through a patchwork schedule but at 9-0 and ranked 8th in the AP poll, BYU found themselves just 14th in the first CFP rankings on Nov 24. The CFP selection committee made it clear in each of its first two rankings that BYU's weak schedule was keeping it outside the top-10, so BYU worked hard to schedule a "quality" opponent and got that chance on Dec 5 when it was able to replace Liberty as Coastal Carolina's opponent on Saturday, after COVID-19 issues prevented the Flames from playing in the game. However, the Cougars were held to season lows in points and yards (405) in a 22-17 loss. BYU ended its regular season on Dec 12 with a 28-14 home win over SD State to finish 10-1, ranked 13th (AP) and 16th (CFP).

QB Zach Wilson has been TERRIFIC, completing 73.2% for 3,267 yards with 30 TDs and just three INTs (his QB rating of 194.8 ranks second to only Alabama's Mac Jones). RB Allgeier has 957 yards on 7.3 YPC with 12 TDs plus BYU has four players with 32 or more catches. WR Milne leads with 63 (8 TDs) and WR Romney has 38 and leads the team averaging 19.9 YPC. WR Pau'u has 40 catches and while TE Rex has a modest 32, he has a team-high 10 TD receptions. BYU's offense is basically as prolific as UCF's, averaging 43.0 PPG (6th) on 512.2 YPG (8th). However, its defense is leaps and bounds better, allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) 309.0 YPG (9th). Doing the math BYU is allowing about 17 PPG and 170 YPG less than UCF.

One can talk all it wants about BYU's 'soft' schedule but UCF has lost to the three-best teams it has played this season (Cincy, Tulsa and Memphis), with its "best win" coming over 6-5 Tulane. The other five wins have come over teams with a combined record of 11-31 (,262). Talk about a 'phoney' team! Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic play is on Pit/Cin Over at 8:15 ET.

NFL Week 15 concludes with the Steelers looking to break a two-game losing streak (after an 11-0 start) with a MNF contest in Cincinnati against the 2-10-1 Bengals. With the KC Chiefs moving to 13-1 with a win at New Orleans on Sunday and the Buffalo Bills moving to 11-3 with a Saturday win at Denver, the Steelers BADLY need a win here to move to 12-2. The Bengals should play "the perfect foil" but the Steelers can make a quick call to the Rams and ask how their game with the 0-13 Jets went on Sunday? Spoiler Alert, the Jets (+17) won 23-20 at the Rams, who fell out of first-place in the NFC West. The Bengals have scored just nine, seven and seven points in the three games since rookie QB Joe Burrow was lost for the season but also note that the Steelers have averaged only 18.0 PPG over their last three games, a 19-14 win over the COVID-ravaged Ravens plus back-to-back losses to Washington and Buffalo. 

The Steelers could have clinched the AFC North if the Browns had lost Sunday night at the Giants but Pittsburgh got NO help from the Giants, as the Browns won 20-6.  As noted above, the Steelers' offense had 'ground to a halt' and questions have swirled around veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger and whether he is reaching the end of his career after the Steelers have come to rely on the passing game but almost exclusively without throwing downfield. Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said it has been difficult to work on the offense with three games in a 12-day span that ended with Sunday night's 26-15 loss at Buffalo. However, the Steelers haven't played since a week ago Sunday and I'm expecting Big Ben to have a HUGE game. After all, Big Ben has completed 66.2% for 3,292 yards with 29 TDs and just nine INTs on the season. Really, people are worried? The last time he faced the Bengals, he passed for 333 yards with four TDs (no INTs) in a 36-10 win. The running game doesn't do much of anything (89.1 YPG ranks 31st) but four WRs contribute plus TE Ebron has 51 catches and four TDs. Back to the WRs, it's Smith-Schuster 79 catches (7 TDs), Johnson with 69 catches (5 TDs), rookie Claypool with 50 catches (8 TDs) and Washington with just 28 catches but 5 TDs.

Cincy backup QB Brandon Allen (27 of 36 for 217 yards with one TD and no INTs last week) is nursing a knee injury and after starting the last three games for the Bengals, will give way to Ryan Finley (rookie from NC St), who will start against the Steelers, Finley has taken the first-team reps with the Bengals' offense in practice this week said head coach Zac Taylor on Saturday. Finley will have to face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks first in points allowed (18.2 PPG) on 303.1 YPG (3rd) and will NOT get any help from a running game averaging 92.3 YPG (30th). He does have a nice trio of WRs in Boyd (78 catches), Higgins (58) and the vet Green (41 catches).

My "over" call is not based on Cincy matching scores with Pittsburgh but rather with the Steelers' offense delivering a 'breakout' performance and for the Bengals to 'chip in' a couple of TDs, maybe even 17-plus points. Pittsburgh has won 10 straight in this series and make it 11 straight with the contest Goin' Over "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season (9-7) and despite a 4-8-1 record in 2020, are just ONE game back in the loss column behind NFC East leader Washington (6-7) with three weeks remaining. What a year 2020 has been! The Eagles are in Arizona to face the 7-6 Cardinals (no easy challenge) but do know that Washington is hosting an excellent Seattle team and the 5-8 Giants should have their hands full with the New & Improved Browns in SNF. An upset win here by the Eagles, "could be a game-changer. However, the Eagles are facing a team also  BADLY in need of a win in the Cardinals. Arizona had lost three straight (and four of five) before winning 26-7 last Sunday at the Giants. That victory gave the Cards a 7-6 record, moving them into the SEVENTH and final NFC playoff spot. The 6-7 Bears and Vikings loom at 6-7 and since Chicago is at Minnesota, the winner moves to 7-7, meaning a loss would drop the Cards to 7-7 and into tiebreaking protocol!

The Eagles made a change at QB last week, benching Wentz in favor of rookie Jaen Hurts. The former Alabama and Oklahoma QB went 17 of 30 for 167 yards (one TD / zero INTs) plus ran for 106 yards, as the Eagles delivered a pivotal 24-21 win at home against the New Orleans Saints (Saints had won NINE in a row!). Philly also got news with RB Sanders back on the field, as he ran just 14 times but for 115 yards with two TDs (he has 746 yards on 5.7 YPC on the season, despite being in and out of the lineup). The Philly offense has struggled all season (21.3 PPG on 326, 3 YPG rank 23rd and 25th, respectively), while the D has been only middle-of-the back, allowing 25.2 PPG (19th) on 347.9 YPG (14th).

Arizona QB Kyler Murray had been slowed some in the Cards' 1-4 skid but what's to complain about him throwing for 3,231 yards (23 TDs / 10 INTs) plus rushing for 712 yards (6.2 YPC) and 10 TDs? RB Drake (848 yards on 4.2 YPC with 9 TDs) give Arizona a strong running game (151.2 YPG ranks 4th), while WRs Hopkins 994 catches / 5 TDs) plus Fitzgerald (45 catches ) and Kirk (38 catches / 6b TDs) give Murray quality targets. on the defensive side of the ball, the Cards were allowing just 18.7 PPG over their first six games entering their Week 7 game with Seattle and although the Cards won (37-34), the defense had allowed 30.7 PPG over its previous six, before holding the Giants to seven points and 159 yards on 10 FDs.

Murray is a proven commodity, while Hurst is at best, a "work in progress. The Eagles visit "the desert" having gone 0-4 SU and ATS their last four on the road and I say make it 0-5 SU & ATS after this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

The 6-7 New England Pats are staring at what likely is their first non-playoff season since 2008, the last time they didn't win the AFC East. The AFC East winner that season was the 11-5 Miami Dolphins. Miami entered this season having not made the playoffs in 16 of the last 18 seasons but at 8-5, have a chance to claim a wild card spot in 2020. The Bills own a two-game lead over Miami in the division but the Dolphins are currently the No. 7 seed, although only by virtue of owning the tiebreaker over the 8-5 Ravens. However, the Dolphins are just ONE game back of the 5th-seeded Browns and 6th-seeded Titans, who are both 9-4.

Patriots QB Cam Newton, a former league MVP in 2015, is just 6-6 as a starter this season, throwing just five TD passes while getting intercepted 10 times (QB rating is a pathetic 78.9). He has run for 451 with 11 TDs and along with RB Harris (691 yards on 5.0 YPC) gives New England a very good running attack (147.5 YPG ranks 5th). However, Harris injured his back in the fourth quarter of Week 14's loss to the Los Angeles Rams and has been ruled out for Sunday. The receiving corps is one of the league's least impressive, with Edelman having not played since Oct 25. WRs Byrd and Mathis each have 42 catches but between the two, have just one TD catch!. New England's defense ranked first in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG) in 2019 but this year's unit is allowing 21,5 PPG (that's a full TD higher) on 342.9 YPG (about 70 YPG more per game).

Miami began the season with a 21-11 loss in Week 1 at New England, as veteran Ryan Fitzgerald was the starting QB. However, in the return matchup, Tua Tagovailoa, the No. 5 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is under center. Despite a lack of healthy, front-line starters at RB, WR, TE or on the offensive line, Tagovailoa is 4-2 as a starter, throwing nine TDs against just one INT (95.2 QB rating). Miami's running game is mostly non-existent (95.2 YPG ranks 27th), so the fact Myles Gaskins 477 yards on 3.9 YPC) is out hardly matters much. TE Gesicki (44 catches / 8 TDs) is not expected to play (big loss) and WR Parker (56 catches / 8 TDs) is questionable. However, as noted above, Tua is making things happen despite missing key offensive players. Just ask KC, which saw him pass for 316 yards and two TDs in last Sunday's hard-fought 33-27 loss. 

While New England's defense is way off from last year, Miami's D ranks second in the league in allowing 18.8 PPG. Miami's 25 takeaways ties them for tops in the league with Pittsburgh, with the team's turnover margin of plus-10, being just ONE behind Pittsburgh's leading total of plus-11. Looking back at the Week 1 game, Fitzgerald threw THREE interceptions and still Miami trailed just 14-11 before a fourth quarter TD gave New England the 10-point win. The Pats are just 2-5 on the road, winning only at the 0-13 Jets (on a FG as time expired) and at the 5-9 Chargers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins own the NFL's best ATS record at 10-3, TWO games better than ANY team in the league. Even when the Pats were the division's dominant team the last three seasons, the Dolphins were able to beat them once each in 2019 (27-24 in New England), in 2018 34-33 in Miami) and 2017 (27-20 in Miami). This time around, the Dolphins are the better team and a win is NEEDED to hold the team's playoff position. Tua over Cam and Miami's defense over New England's.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The 6-7 Minnesota Vikings welcome the 6-7 Chicago Bears to U.S. Bank Stadium with both teams sitting just outside the final playoff spot in the NFC, one game back of the 7-6 Arizona Cardinals. Minnesota owns the tiebreaker against Chicago thanks to a 19-13 road victory in Week 10. Nick Foles suffered hip and glute injuries at the end of that game, prompting head coach Mike Nagy to reinsert Mitch Trubisky as the starter. Foles started eight games following the early-season benching of Trubisky. Trubisky has passed for at least 242 yards in each of his three starts since, and last week finished 24-of-33 for 267 yards and three TDs as the Bears snapped a SIX-game losing streak with a 36-7 home rout of Houston. Minnesota is coming off a 26-14 loss at Tampa Bay and head coach Mike Zimmer has been non-committal regarding the struggles of PK Dan Bailey. He missed three FGs and an extra point against the Buccaneers, one week after missing a FG and two extra points in an overtime win against Jacksonville. Asked first whether Bailey will kick against the Bears and later if the team will pursue another kicker, Zimmer responded with "We'll see," both times.

Neither Foles nor Trubisky seems like the 'answer' at QB for Chicago and it surely doesn't help that Cjhicago's running game averages just 93.2 YPG (28th) on YPC. Montgomery is the lone RB of note, rushing for 760 yards on 4.5 YPC and four TDs. WR Robinson (86 catches / 6 TDs) is again having a good season, while TE Graham has 42 catches (had just 38 LY with Green Bay) and six TDs (had a total of just FIVE the previous two seasons). The defense remains solid, allowing 22.4 PPG (9th) on 347.5 YPG (13th) but the offense averages just 21.7 PPG (25th) on 319.8 YPG (28th).

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins rarely gets respect but he's completing 67.5% for 3,298 yards with 27 TDs and 12 INTs for a 102.7 QB rating in 2020. That comes on the heels of him completing 70.1 and 69.1% in his first two seasons with the Vikings, passing for 4,298 and 3,603 yards with 56 YTDs and 16 INTs with QB ratings of 90.7 and 107.4. He misses WR Diggs (at Buffalo) but rookie Jefferson has 65 catches on 16.6 YPC with seven TDs, while veteran Thielen has 60 catches with 12 TDs. RB Dalvin Cook topped 100 yards for the third time in four games last week and is the No. 2 rusher in the league (1,352 yards on 5.0 YPC) and is the leader in rushing TDs with 14. Of course, the defense has struggled for most of the season (27.3 PPG allowed ranks 24th).

However, Minnesota's defense DOMINATED the Bears in that Week 10 contest, holding Chicago to 149 yards and a mere 10 FDs. The Bears gained just 41 rushing yards on 17 carries and the team's lone TD of that contest came on a 104-yard KO return. The Bears had beaten the Vikings in all four meetings in 2018 and 12019, so Minnesota's Week 10 win at Chicago was a nice breakthrough. Not sure the Vikings can catch the Cards but this is a VERY winnable game, as is their Week 17 game with the Lions. Next week's game with the Saints? Not so much. Minnesota "keeps hope alive' with a solid home victory here, as the Bears say bye-bye to the 2020 postseason.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on the Sea Seahawks at 1:00 ET.

The Seattle Seahawks are making a habit of facing the first-place team from the NFC East. After beating the Eagles 23-17 at Philadelphia (Week 12) and losing 17-12 at home to the Giants (Week 13), the 9-4 Seahawks will play at 6-7 Washington on Sunday in Week 15, which currently tops the NFC East. Washington has won and covered four straight to take the lead in the NFL's worst division, while Seattle's 9-4 record has them tied atop the NFC West with the Rams but LA owns the tiebreaker. That means Seattle finds itself with the top wild card seed in the NFC (5th).

Russell Wilson quickly established himself as the early favorite for league MVP but after a 5-0 start, Seattle has gone just 4-4. Wilson entered last week's game with just four TDs and three INTs in his previous four games but the in beating their hapless Jets, he had four TD passes. By any measure, Wilson's having a terrific season, completing 70.4% for 3,685 yards with 36 TDs and just 12 INTs (109.0 QB rating. He's got two top-notch WRs in Metcalf (69 catches on 17.1 YPC with 10 TDs ) and Lockett (81 catches with eight TDs). The running game is better than average, gaining 121.1 YPG (12th). The Seahawks' defense has been another story, ranking last in the 32-team league for most of the season but moved up to No. 27 (390.3 YPG) after allowing just 185 total yards in last Sunday's 40-3 pounding of the winless New York Jets.

Washington QB Alex Smith suffered a strained right calf shortly before halftime in last weekend's 23-15 victory at San Francisco and has missed practice time this week, as has leading rusher Antonio Gibson (toe). Coach Ron Rivera said Smith could be a game-time decision. Dwayne Haskins, the No. 15 overall pick in 2019 who was benched after starting the first four games of the season, would replace Smith if he's unavailable. Haskins was 7-of-12 passing for 51 yards against the 49ers. Gibson's absence (he's listed as doubtful) would be HUGE, as he's really come on (659 yards on 4.7 YPC with 11 TDs). Neither Smith nor Haskins 'scare' any defense, even Seattle's. Speaking of defense, Washington's scored twice last week, on an interception 76 yards for a TD and a fumble recovery that went 47 yards for a score. It marked the first time since 1992 Washington won on the road without scoring an offensive TD. In the team's 4-0 run, the defense has allowed 14.3 PPG.

Maybe I'm being stubborn but I'm having a lot of trouble 'buying' Washington and will take Seattle here, which can be pretty sure it will need a win to stay even with the 9-4 Rams, who are hosting the 0-13 Jets. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

Tampa Bay (8-5) currently sits in sixth place in the NFC, after a 26-14 victory last week at home against Minnesota. Tom Brady was nothing special (15 of 23 for 196 yards and two TDs) but he has 30 TD passes on the season, the EIGHTH time he's done that. The Bus visited Atlanta for a game with the 4-9 Falcons, who are hoping to play the spoiler's role in another lost season. The Falcons' 20-17 loss last week at the Los Angeles Chargers clinched a third straight sub.-500 campaign. Barring a season-ending three-game winning streak, Atlanta will fail to match its 7-9 record of the last two years.

Atlanta fired head coach Dan Quinn after starting 0-5 but is 4-4 under interim coach Raheem Morris, with mostly competitive efforts. QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,660 yards (will top 4,000 for the 10th straight season!) with 19 TDs and 11 INTs. Todd Gurley (645 yards on just 3.6 YPF but 9 TDs) has NOT helped the running game, as Atlanta averages a woeful 08.3 YPG on 3.76 YPC. The defense allows 390.6 YPG (28th) but a more modest 24.8 PPG (16th).

Brady's completing of 64.8% for 3,496 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTS and RB Ronald Jones (900 yards on 5.0 YPC with 6 TDs) has given Tampa Bay a nice offensive balance. However, he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday. He was already considered questionable after undergoing surgery Tuesday to have pins placed in a fractured pinkie finger. Leonard Fournette (271 yards) will take over but note that 103 of his 271 rushing yards this season came back in a Week 2 win. Tampa Bay's season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 22.6 PPG (11th) on 330.3.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide (before its win over Minnesota in Week 14), the "stop unit" had done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG. The Vikings scored just 14 points but missed three FGs and an extra-point.

This marks the first of two matchups between the Bucs and Falcons in the season's final three weeks (Falcons play at Tampa in Week 17). I realize that the Bucs are focused on breaking a 13-year playoff drought, the second-longest drought in the NFL, but the Falcons are 6-2 ATS their last eight as a division home dog. Also, current Atlanta head coach Morris was Tampa Bay's head coach from 2009-11 before being fired. How much would he 'love' to play spoiler here? Home dog 'barks' loudly.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* is on Oregon St at 10:30 ET.

Arizona State opened its season at USC back on Nov 7 and suffered a BRUTAL loss, as the Trojans scored two TDs in the final three minute to eke out a 28-27 win. The Sun Devils' next two games were canceled, before losing 25-18 at home to UCLA on Dec 5. However, ASU took out its frustration against its in-state rival on Dec 11, winning the Territorial Cup 70-7! QB Daniels passed for 203 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) and led by White's 133 yards (3 TDs), the Sun Devils ran for 259 yards and seven TDs. ASU 'forcing' SEVEN turnovers (or maybe Arizona 'coughing up' SEVEN giveaways), just may have had something to do with the lopsided rout.

Oregon St opened 0-2 but then won back-to-back games, including a 41-38 upset of then-No. 15 Oregon. The Beavers enter this game off two close losses, 30-24 at Utah and 27-24 at home to Stanford. QB Gebbia was no better than serviceable, completing 62.0% for 824 yards with three TDs and three INTs, while backup Chance Nolan has started the last two, throwing for 221 yards and three TDs in the loss to Stanford. The team's best offensive 'weapon' is RB Jermar Jefferson (756 yards on 6.9 YPC / 7 TDs) but his availability is in question after an ankle injury kept him sidelined in the second half against the Cardinal.,"I've been rehabbing every single day," Jefferson said. "I'm just waiting ... to see how I feel."

Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith takes solace in his team potentially being one of only two in the Pac-12 (UCLA) to avoid COVID-19 cancellations and play all seven games scheduled this fall. Arizona State and Oregon State also met in Corvallis last year with the Beavers winning 35-34 in dramatic fashion. Sun Devils head coach Herm Edwards elected to go for two at the end of regulation but the attempt failed. That gives ASU a nice 'revenge' motive but I want NO part of laying points on the road with a mediocre team (I'm being kind) coming off a 70-7 win over its biggest rival. As noted, ASU had the benefit of SEVEN turnovers by Arizona, only outgaining the Wildcats by 126 yards. When was the last time you saw that in a 63-point win? Also note that THREE of Oregon State's four losses have come by SIX or less points. Take the home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* is on Tulsa at 8:00 ET.

The Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0, 6-0 AAC) initially were slated to visit Tulsa on Oct 17; however, positive COVID-19 cases within the Cincinnati program forced the postponement of that game to De. 5. Television demands briefly shuffled the contest to Dec 4 and then to Dec. 12 in lieu of other commitments. However, additional COVID-19 issues within the Bearcats' program forced the cancellation of that clash. The Golden Hurricane are 6-1, but also 6-0 league play but the AAC allowed the Bearcats to host the title game since their College Football Playoff ranking was superior to the Golden Hurricane's. "We talked to Tulsa about it as well as Cincinnati, and everybody was comfortable that that was the best decision," league commissioner Mike Aresco said. So "away we go."

Tulsa began with a season-opening 16-7 loss to Oklahoma State on Sep 19 but easily covered as a 24 1/2-point underdog. Its next game wasn't until Oct 3, when it won 34-26 at UCF as a 20 1/2-point dog. That victory began a SIX-game winning streak in which Tulsa went 5-1 ATS (including some mind-numbing covers) to finish 6-1 ATS on the season. QB Zach Smith is fine, completing 57.8% for 1,434 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs. Three RBs add between 317 and 356 rushing yards for a team averaging 159.4 on the ground. The Golden Hurricane offense averages 27.7 PPG (70yh) but the team's defense is strong, allowing 19.9 PPG (21st) on 328.4 YPG (20th).

QB Ridder has had a terrific season, completing 66.5% for 1,821 yards with 16 TDs and six INTs. He adds 526 yards rushing 0n 7.9 YPC with 11 TDs. The Bearcats have GREAT balance, averaging 238.9 YPG through the air and 234.3 YPG on the ground, while averaging 40.9 PPG (13th). Defensively, Cincy allows 15.0 PPG (5th) on 308.1 YPG (9th). Is it good news that the Bearcats have been idle since posting a 36-33 victory at UCF back on Nov 21?

Tulsa enters on a SIX-game winning streak, with its 19-6 win at Navy on Dec 5 allowing the Golden Hurricane to contest for a championship for the first time since 2012. Luke Fickell has led the Bearcats to 30-5 record since the beginning of the 2018 season and Cincy will take a 19-game home winning streak into this contest. A Cincy win here and the Bearcats earn a New Year's Six bowl bid as the highest-ranked Group of 5 team. No doubt that the Bearcats are the better team but Tulsa has covered both games as an underdog in 2020 and is 5-1 ATS as 5-1 ATS the last two seasons as an AAC underdog, including an outright upset of UCF on the road this season (see above). Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* is on Florida at 8:00 ET.

Did Florida's hopes at qualifying for the College Football Playoff 'die' with its shocking 37-34 upset at the hands of LSU in "The Swamp" last Saturday. Florida ran up 609 yards of total offense but offset that with three crucial turnovers, including a pick-six. As for Florida's defense, it gave up 418 yards to a team whose QB was making his first career start. Naturally, Marco Wilson's 'fateful toss' of opposing TE Kole Taylor's footwear 20 yards downfield to celebrate a third-down stop late last week drew ALL of the attention and while it was a "stupid play," there was plenty of blame to go around. While Florida was 'gagging' as a 24-point favorite, Alabama rolled to a 52-3 win at Arkansas, completing its season at 10-0. No. 1 Alabama (AP and CFP) is trying to secure a return to the College Football Playoff after missing out last season for the first time since the four-team postseason format began in 2014. The Crimson Tide may qualify even with a loss, since no other team in the SEC has fewer than two defeats. Florida likely squandered its chance to get into the playoff with a stunning setback to LSU last weekend, but the Gators are still in position to claim their first SEC title since 2008. This will be the 10th time the teams have met in the SEC championship game, with Alabama holding a 5-4 edge. However, the Crimson Tide have won the last SIX meetings against the Gators and Florida coach Dan Mullen is 0-9 in his career against Alabama's Nick Saban.

Alabama is an offensive juggernaut, averaging 49.5 PPG (3rd) on 537 YPG (5th). QB Mac Jones may (should?) be the Heisman favorite, as he's completed 76.4% of his passes for 3,321 yards with 27 TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 203.9 ranks No. 1). RB Harris has 1,084 yards and 22 TDs), while WR Smith (83 catches with 15 TDs) is arguably the best WR in the nation. The Alabama defense looked 'shaky' in the early part of the season but over its last six games, has allowed just 8.8 PPG ('Bama has covered its last SEVEN games!).

Florida does not have RB to match Harris and while TE Pitts (11 TDs, despite missing significant time) and WR Toney (62 catches / 9 TDs) are both "big time' receivers, Florida's receiving corps can't quite match Alabama's group. However, QB Kyle Trask has had a season comparable to Jones, completing 70.2% for 3,717 yards with 40 TDs and just five INTs. He had THREE first-half TOs in the loss to LSU (including throwing that pick-six), so he's got MUCH to prove in this game. Florida's defense allows 26.3 PPG, which is fine when one's offense is averaging 41.2 PPG (8th), but can the Gators match the Tide score-for-score?

Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' with this pick but I just believe the Gators will bring their "A-game" to this contest off of last week's embarrassment. Will it be good enough to beat Alabama? I doubt it but it should be good enough for Florida bettors to 'CA$H!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Championship Game of the Month is on Boise St at 4:15 ET.

Boise St is 5-1 (5-0 in MWC) and is once again in the MWC championship game. The Broncos' FB dominance began back in 1999 (Big West), then moved to the  WAC from 2002-2010 and has continued in the MWC since 2011. Boise entered the 2020 season with an all-time winning percentage of .731, the highest in all of collegiate football. Waiting for the Broncos in Las Vegas is San Jose St, which is just two years removed from a 1-11 campaign. However, it's the 6-0 Spartans who enter this game as the ranked team at No. 25 in the AP poll (last time in the AP's top-25 was 2012) and at No. 24 in the CFP standings, are ranked for the very first time. The Spartans are 6-0 for the first time since 1939, when that team went unbeaten in 13 contests.

QB Hank Bachmeier had a solid freshman season in 2019 and despite missing TWO of the team's six games in 2020, enters completing 66.1% for 929 yards with six TDs and two INTs. Shakir is his top target (46 catches / 8 TDs) but Thomas is averaging 18.9 YPC on his 17 catches with two TDs. RB Van Buren leads with 356 yards rushing (8 TDs) and while the Broncos' ground game is averaging only 123.0 YPG (108th), Boise St has averaged 36.2 PPG (21st). That goes pretty good with a defense that's allowed 26.0 PPG (46th) on 352.7 YPG (33rd).

San Jose St QB Nick Starkel (previously played at Texas A&M and Arkansas) is completing 66.3% for 1,453 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs. His main targets are WRs Gaither (36 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Walker (31 catches / 3 TDs) plus TE Deese has just 17 catches but 4 TDs. Tyler Nevers (454 yards on 8.9 YPC (5 TDs) leads a running game averaging 159.8 YPG on 5.0 YPC. San Jose St averages 30.3 PPG (49th) and its defense has been excellent, allowing 17.5 PPG (13th) on 355.7 YPG (34th).

Will San Jose St's 'Cinderella' season continue with a win here, as the Spartans play in their first-ever MWC title game? The program last had a winning record in 2012 and head coach Brian Brennan had an 8-29 mark with the Spartans before this season. In contrast, Boise State is trying to win its FOURTH Mountain West title game as the Broncos make their fourth-consecutive appearance in the game and fifth overall. You may have noticed that the ranked team (San Jose St) is about a TD underdog and could that be because Boise St takes a 14-game conference winning streak into Saturday's game? Then again, maybe it's because the Broncos have won each of the 14 all-time meetings between the two schools (SIX of the wins have come by at least 35 points!)? Series history and Boise St's FB dominance the two decades counts for something. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Week is on Army at 3:00 ET.

The Air Force Falcons and Army Black Knights meet Saturday at Michie Stadium. Air Force trounced Navy 40-7 way back on Oct 3, while Army beat Navy 15-0 just this past Saturday. That means the winner will receive the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy (established in 1972). Air Force has won the trophy 20 times, Navy 16 and Army just eight (four shared years, with Navy retaining the trophy three times and Air Force once). Air Force's Troy Calhoun is completing his 14th season in 2020 at Colorado Springs, after replacing Fisher DeBerry who retired after 23 years as the Falcons' head coach. He has led the Falcons to 10 bowl appearances in 13 years, including an 11-2 season in 2019, after back-to-back 5-7 seasons in 2017 and 2019. Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018.

COVID has allowed Air Force to play just FIVE games in 2020 with the Falcons playing just TWICE since Oct 31. They won 28-0 at home over New Mexico on Nov 20 and 35-7 at Utah St on Dec 3 (New Mexico is a 2-5 team and Utah St a 1-5 one). Air Force is second in the nation with 336.0 YPG on the ground, averaging 5.9 YPC. Its defense has held opponents to 16.0 PPG (8th) on 307.4 YPG (8th). Army has rebounded off a poor 2019 (5-8) to go 8-2 and now plays its 11th game in this "Year of COVID," losing just ONE game of its 12-game schedule to the virus. Army rushes for 280.1 YPG (4th) on 4.8 YPC plus its defense has played even better than Air Force's, allowing 14.7 PPG (4th) on 272.1 YPG (3rd).

Air Force has won SEVEN of the last 10 meetings against Army, but this season has had issues playing a consistent schedule and its three wins have come against teams with a combined 6-17 record. Army is 6-1 straight up since October and has held THREE of its last six opponents to single digit points, while pitching two 'shutouts' this season. What's more, since the beginning of 2017, Army is 23-2 SU in its 25 game at Michie Stadium. Note that BOTH losses came during 2019's 5-8 campaign. Army is 7-0 SU at home in 2020. I'll take ANY point available. Go Army! Beat Air Force!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pac-12 Championship Game play is on USC at 8:00 ET.

When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 Conference football season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) and USC (AP preseason No. 17) were the favorites to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0 (with THREE "close calls''), Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washing at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans on Friday night. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks will replace the Huskies in the championship game. What a year it's been.

This is Mario Cristobal's third season at Oregon, having led the Ducks to back-to-back bowls while going 9-4 and 12-2. Despite losing QB Herbert to the NFL, the Ducks' current QB Tyler Shough has been more than an adequate replacement, passing for 1,389 yards (277.8 YPG) with 11 TDs and four INTs plus running for 256 yards on 4.9 YPC with five TDs. RB Dye has a team-high 336 yards on 7.5 YPC plus his five receptions have averaged 40.8 YPC with three TDs. A trio of WRs have combined for 47 TDs. Oregon has a nice balance on offense, passing for 277.8 YPG and running for 189.2 YPG, while averaging 34.2 PPG. Defensively, the Ducks are allowing 28.0 PPG.

USC was once known by the nickname of "Tailback U" but no longer. This year's team is averaging a pathetic 109.2 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPC, which ranks 115th in the nation. QB Kedon Slovis has been the team-MVP, completing 70.3% while averaging 320.2. YPG through the air (1,601 yards in five games) with 15 TDs and just four INTs. He leads an offense averaging 35.2 PPG (23rd) and the defense has been sound, allowing 25.0 PPG (41st) on 395.0 YPG (56th). 

The Trojans had to rally and were lucky to beat the two Arizona schools to open the season, then beat Utah 33-17 and Washington St, 38-13. However, the "comeback kids" needed to work their 'magic' again last Saturday vs UCLA, rallying from an 18-point deficit to win 43-38. The Ducks opened the season 3-0 (ranked No. 15) but then dropped their last two games on the road; 41-38 to Oregon State and 21-17 to previously winless California. Oregon was No. 23 in the College Football Playoff rankings before its latest loss.

Here's the bottom line. One could argue that Oregon's been given a "second chance" and will make the most of it but I'm siding with the position that USC's Slovis has time and again, "come through in the clutch." How about five TD passes (four in the second half after USC fell behind 28-10) in the UCLA comeback? USC is 7-1 at home since the start of the 2019 season, losing only to Oregon last season (56-24!). Methinks the Trojans will remember that result and the price on this game on their home field gives them a GREAT chance to win and cover the modest impost. "Fight On!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Marshall at 7:00 ET.

UAB is back in the C-USA championship game for the THIRD straight year, becoming the first C-USA program to accomplish such a feat. The Blazers won 27-25 at MTSU in 2018 and then lost last year at FAU, 49-6. UAB will again be the road team in 2020, as it travels to Huntington, West Va to take on Marshall's Thundering Herd. The Blazers are 5-3 on the season, with their 3-1 conference record being good enough to win the West. UAB lost 37-34 (2 OTs) at La Tech on Oct 31 but didn't play again until its 21-16 win at Rice on Dec 12, clinching the school's third straight division title. Marshall knows MORE than a little about Rice, as the Thundering Herd (which also saw games canceled due to COVID issues) was 7-0 when it hosted Rice on Dec 5 and shockingly lost 20-0 as a 24 1/2-point favorite. Marshall won the East with a 4-1 conference mark. Marshall has played in two previous C-USA title games, losing to Rice (there's that team again!) in 2013 but winning the following season against La Tech.

Tyler Johnson began the season as UAB's starting QB but after two games, suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder that kept him out indefinitely. He was replaced by Lucerno who was not very effective, completing just 54.1 percent with seven TDs and eight INTs. Johnson played in UAB's Oct 31 loss to La Tech and then started in the 21-16 win at Rice, completing 9 of 18 for two TDs and zero INTs plus ran for 41 yards. He was UAB's leading rusher in that game, because RB Spencer Brown (740 yards on 4.7 YPC with 10 TDs) did not play. His status is questionable for this one. UAB averages 29.3 PPG but its defense has led the way all season, allowing 22.5 PPG (33rd) on 318.9 YPG (145).

However, when one speaks of defense, Marshall is right on the tip of everyone's tongue. The Marshall defense has been special, as it has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game. The stunning 20-0 loss to Rice a few weeks ago was the first time all season the defense allowed more than 17 points. The team's "stop unit" does just that, ranking second in the nation against the run (73.0 YPG), second in total defense (253.9 YPG) and No. 1 in scoring D (11.4 PPG). RB Brenden Knox ran for 1,397 yards and 11 TDs in 2019 (13 games) and in eight games so far in 2020, has 820 yards on 4.9 YPC with 9 TDs. Freshman QB Grant Wells is the franchise guy to build around. He entered the game with Rice  averaging 279 YPG passing with 16 TDs and just four INTs in 192 attempts. However, he 'blew up' against the Owls, getting intercepted FIVE times while throwing for just 165 yards.

Oftentimes when teams get off to long winning streaks to open a season and finally lose, they DON'T bounce back like many expect them to. However, this is different, as Marshall has had two weeks to 'stew' over its loss plus is at HOME with an opportunity to win its first C-USA title since 2014 and head to its bowl with a chance to finish this pandemic-riddled season at 9-1. That would be quite an accomplishment.

Marshall was 11-1 SU at home heading to the Rice game since the start of 2019 and while UAB has been a great home to since 2018 in going 21-1 SU, the Blazers are just 9-13 SU on the road in that same span. The point spread is more than fair (and manageable) for the homestanding Herd, who 'Thunder' to a double digit win.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The Raiders have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in their last two games but were able to split the two games, escaping with a 'miracle' win at the Jets in Week 13 but getting 'run over' 44-27 by the Colts last Sunday at home. The Raiders are now 7-6 and currently or on the outside looking in as the ninth seed in a crowded seven-team AFC playoff race. A loss here in Thursday night's home game with the 4-9 Los Angeles Chargers is as the saying goes, "NOT an option!"

The Chargers have found a franchise QB in  Justin Herbert (66.3% for 3,467 yards with 25 TDs and 10 INTs in his rookie season) but the team has found a myriad of ways to blow big leads. Despite Herbert and WR Allen's (99 catches / 8 TDs) excellent seasons, the offense is averaging a modest 22.8 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 27.8 PPG (26th).

QB Derek Carr is "on pace" for the best season of his career (68.2% for 3,343 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 102.1), supported by RB Jacobs (831 yards and 9 TDs) plus TE Waller (84 catches / 7 TDs). Las Vegas' offense is scoring a bit more than LA's at 26.9 PPG but its defense has struggled most of the season (30.1 PPG ranks 30th!).

These teams met back in LA on Nov 8 (Week 9) and in that one, it looked like the Chargers had won on a 4-yard TD pass on the final play of the game. However, the score was eventually overturned when a replay review showed the ball hit the ground as the receiver came down on the sideline chalk before establishing full control (Las Vegas won, 31-26). That Week 9 win gave the Raiders THREE straight victories over the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 victory over Atlanta on Sunday, hitting a 43-yard field goal as time expired for the winning points. Herbert produced the first game-winning, fourth-quarter drive of his career. 

However, considering that the Chargers haven't won back-to-back games all season, I want NO part of them here. As noted above, the Raiders are in a "must-win" situation, as their game next week with the Dolphins won't mean much if they lose here. Las Vegas was a one-point favorite in LA, meaning the Raiders should be a much bigger favorite than they are here at home. Here's some stats to 'chew on!' The Raiders are 8-2 ATS since the start of last season vs AFC West foes, while the Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS over the same time frame vs division opponents. That's a pretty sweet 'daily double' in favor of the Raiders!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year (MNF Magic) is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET.

The Cleveland Browns are looking to end a 17-season playoff drought after taking a big step in the right direction with last Sunday's 41-35 win at the Tennessee Titans, a team that played in last season's AFC title game. The 9-3 Browns welcome the hated-Baltimore Ravens to Cleveland on Monday night, a team that got a much-needed 34-17 win last Tuesday at home over the Cowboys. Baltimore opened the season 5-1 but had lost FOUR of its last five prior to the win over Dallas, dealing with inconsistent play and severe COVID-19 issues. Cleveland currently owns the No. 5 seed in the AFC, while Baltimore is 7-5 and out of the playoffs at the moment. However, a Baltimore win moves them into a tie with 8-5 Miami for the No. 7 seed (final playoff spot) plus would put them just ONE game back of the 9-4 Browns and Titans.

QB Lamar Jackson was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list a day before the game with Dallas and looked fresh, despite passing for just 107 yards. He rushed for 94 yards as the Ravens dominated the trenches by racking up 294 on the ground. Jackson won't come close to last season's MVP numbers (3,127 passing yards with 36 TDs and 6 INTs / 1,206 rushing yards with 7 TDs) but he does have a solid 17-7 TD/INT ratio and leads Baltimore in rushing with 669 yards 5.8 YPC (4 TDs). Baltimore averaged an NFL-record 206.0 YPG (5.5 YPC) last season and again leads with 169.0 YPC on 5.2 YPC. Mark Ingram joined Jackson with more than 1,000 yards rushing last year but has just 260 yards in 2020. However, Edwards has 487 yards (4.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Dobbins 451 yards (5.4 YPC / 4 TDs). Baltimore's D allowed 17.6 PPG (2nd) on 300.6 YPG (4th) and this t0year's unit is not far off those numbers, allowing 19.3 PPG (4th) on 337.7 YPG (10th).

Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield passed for four TDs and a season-high 334 yards against the Titans last week, with all of his TDs coming in the first half. Mayfield also threw four of his five TDs in the second half of a win against Cincinnati back on Oct 25. No other QB has matched that in the NFL in 2020. However, note that Mayfield had thrown just two TD passes over his previous four games. His season high prior to last Sunday was just 297 yards. He's barely averaging over 200 YPG passing in 2020, although he's greatly improved his TD/INT ratio to 21-7, after last year's 22-21 mark (his QB rating is 97.9, up from 73.8 in 2019). Cleveland's two-RB attack is just behind Baltimore, ranking second in the NFL by averaging 157.8 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC). Chubb has 799 yards (6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Hunt has 739 yards (4.3 YPC / 4 TDs). However, Cleveland's defense is allowing a worrisome 26.8 PPG (24th).

Cleveland's win over Tennessee was just its SECOND over a team with a current winning record (also beat the 9-4 Colts 32-23 back in Week 7). The Browns' other seven wins have come over Ciny (twice), Washington, Dallas, Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Just for the record, those seven own a combined record of 21-55-2 (.282). There is NO doubt that Cleveland's first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has established a different culture but I still don't trust them vs Baltimore, which CRUSHED them in Week 1 by the score of 38-6! That's not exactly news, as since John Harbaugh was named Baltimore's head coach prior to the 2008 season, the Ravens had won 20 of the 24 meetings from through 2019, including a 10-2 mark in Cleveland. Having made it 21 wins in the last 25 games with that Week 1 win, the Ravens now go for a NINTH season-sweep of the series. BTW, Lamar Jackson passed for 275 yards and three TDs and added 45 yards on the ground in that Week 1. Deja vu? 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Buf Bills at 8:20 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit Buffalo for a SNF game with the Bills and for the FIRST time in 2020, the Steelers are coming off a loss. Pittsburgh was upset 23-17 by Washington last Monday and will head to Buffalo 11-1 and hoping to keep pace with (or move ahead of) the 11-1 Chiefs by beating Buffalo. That will be no easy chore, as the Bills are 9-3 after also playing last Monday but coming away with a 34-24 win over San Francisco in a game played in Glendale, Az (home of the Cardinals.

"Big Ben" has bounced back from missing all of last season with a strong season (66.9% for 3,105 yards with 27 TDs and 7 INTs). He's got an excellent trio of WRs in Smith-Schuster (73 catches / 6 TDs), Johnson (65 / 5 TDs) and rookie Claypool (47 / 8 TDs) plus TE Ebron has 49 catches with four TDs. However, Pittsburgh RBs have fought injuries all season and Pittsburgh enters the game averaging only 92.6 YPG on the ground (29th), averaging 3.7 YPC. The defense has been the 'star' of the 2020 season, allowing 17.6 PPG (1st) on 300.5 YPG (3rd).

That defense will be tested by Buffalo QB Josh Allen who is having a breakout year!  I say that even though he began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. However, his 2020 season has been "pretty darn good!" THREE times this season he has thrown for at least 375 yards and three TDs, with a passer rating of at least 130. That includes Monday night, when he threw for 375 yards and four TDs with a 139.1 QB rating. He is the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the THIRD time. His Y-T-D numbers have him completing 69.9% for 3,403 yards with 26 TDs and eight INTs (QB rating of 105.9). Buffalo's running game is much better than Pittsburgh's (107.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE. He leads the team with 90 catches (four TDs)., while fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 66 through 12 games (on pace for 88).

After a long winning streak ends, many assume a "bounce-back" but just as often, that team suffers a let down. Pittsburgh's offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG its last two games an as noted above, I believe the Pittsburgh D will have its hands full with Josh Allen. Buffalo's trying to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and this contest is its LONE home game in a four-week span. NO "bounce-back" here for the Steelers!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non Division Game of the Year is on the SF 49ers at 4:25 ET. 

Washington and San Francisco are both 5-7 but while Washington is tied for first in the NFC East, the NFC defending champion 49ers are mired in last-place in the NFC West. Washington began the season 1-5 but its shocking 23-17 win Monday against the previously unbeaten Steelers kept them in a tie with the Giants, who had pulled off quite an upset of their own last Sunday in winning 17-12 at Seattle as an 11-point underdog. Meanwhile, the 49ers made an uphill climb a good bit steeper with a 34-24 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Monday night in Glendale, Az. San Francisco will again 'host' Washington in Glendale on Sunday.

Washington's recent surge has coincided with QB Alex Smith's return from a near career-ending injury (actually, life-threatening). Smith's comeback is truly remarkable but he has just four TD passes and five INTs with a VERY poor QB rating of 83.8. In fact, Washington's defensive play has been the key, as Washington ranks eighth in points allowed (21.7 per) and 4th in total yards (310.9 YPG). That's because in the team's 3-0 SU and ATS run, Washington's D has allowed just 14.0 PPG on 281.7 YPG.

San Francisco has been riddled by injuries all season but ironically, the 49ers were healthier than they've been in a while for Monday's game with Buffalo. However, the San Francisco defense couldn't handle Buffalo QB Josh Allen who threw for 375 yards with four TDs (no INTs). Nick Mullens (still in for Jimmy G) threw for 316 yards and three TDs (but had two INTs). San Francisco's defense has not quite played up to the standards of last year's edition but the 49ers have allowed 24.0 PPG (13th) on 326.3 YPG (6th).

Kudos to Washington's recent play but the 49ers have WON five of their last six meetings with Washington and a closer look at Monday's loss to Buffalo reveals that San Francisco turned the ball over on downs at the Buffalo one-yard line plus Nick Mullens threw two interceptions, including one in the end zone. The 49ers are almost sure to miss the postseason but expect them to get the better of Washington in this one, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET.

The Colts opened the season losing 27-20 at Jacksonville (the Jags have lost 11 in a row since!) but have recovered from that embarrassment to sit 8-4 as the season enters Week 14. Indy is tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South but the Titans own the tiebreaker. The Colts also lose a tiebreaker to the 8-4 Dolphins, so they currently are the No. 7 seed, the final playoff spot. The Raiders welcome the Colts to Las Vegas off a last-second win last Sunday at the Jets, giving them a 7-5 record which has them in the No. 8 slot, although the Ravens are also 7-5.

After spending his entire career with the Chargers, Philip Rivers signed with the Colts as a FA prior to the start of the current season. He's well on his way to another 4,000-yard season, passing for 3,263 yards with 18 TDs and nine TDs. He hasn't got much help from Indy's running game (only 104.8 YPG), as rookie Taylor (609 yards on 4.1 YPC) has been a disappointment. The Colts defense was near the top of the league for most of the season but the Colts have allowed 32.0 PPG over their last three games. 

Las Vegas QB Derek Carr (68.1% for 3,027 yards with 22 TDs and just five INTs / 104.1 QB rating) is having the best season of his career and comes as the star of last Sunday's 'storybook' 31-28 victory over the winless New York Jets. Taking advantage of an all-out blitz, he hit rookie WR Henry Ruggs III in one-on-one coverage for a 46-yard TD with five seconds to go! It was the 20th career fourth-quarter comeback for Carr, an NFL record for most in a player's first seven seasons. He finished with 381 yards passing with three TD passes and one TD run. RB Josh Jacobs (782 yards and nine TDs) gives the offense balance and TE  Darren Waller has 77 catches and seven TDs on the season, after his 13 catches for a career-high 200 yards and two TDs vs the Jets. He is just the fourth tight end in NFL history to have 200-plus receiving yards and two TDs in a game. The defense has been an issue most of the season, allowing 28.9 PPG (28th).

Rivers is well-familiar with the Raiders, as this will be his 29th start against them. This contest has major playoff implications for both teams, as the Colts hold the 7th and final playoff spot in the AFC, while the Raiders are just ONE game back. The good news for Las Vegas is that this contest is the first of THREE straight home games, although the Chargers should be a win, this game and the Week 16 game with the Dolphins will likely determine the team's playoff fate. As for the Colts, they follow this game with a second game in their last three with the Texans. The Raiders are the only team to beat the Chiefs (won in KC) and almost took down the Chiefs here in Las Vegas back in Week 11 (lost 35-31). Las Vegas is a very 'LIVE' home dog!

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 1:00 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. However as Sunday Dec 13 dawns, the Rams are 9-4, Seattle 8-4 (and poised to join them at 9-4 with a home game against the Jets on tap) but the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6. Arizona has lost FOUR of five (lone exception was its 'miracle' Hail Mary win against the Bills). However, in this "season like no other," Arizona's 6-6 record would have them in first place in the 2020 NFC East, ONE game up on New York. The slumping Cards are at MetLife Field on Sunday to take on the surging Giants, who have won FOUR in a row, after a shocking 17-12 win in Seattle (as an 11-point underdog) last Sunday.

Arizona Kyler Murray has been contained better recently but the second-year player is having an impressive season. He's thrown for 2,997 yards with 22 TDs and 10 INTs plus he's run for 665 yards on 56.5 YPC with 10 rush TDs. Drake (768 yards on 4.3 YPC with 5 TDs) has become a reliable RB and his ankle is said to be fine. The problem for Arizona has been its defense. The Cards were allowing just 18.7 PPG over their first six games entering their Week 7 game with Seattle and although the Cards won (37-34), the defense has allowed 30.7 PPG its last six.

The Giants' 2020 season seemed "all but dead" after eight games, when they fell to 1-7 with a 25-23 MNF Week 8 loss to the Bucs. However, the Giants had been competitive in four straight games, a one-point win and three losses by a combined SIX points. The Giants enter this contest on a FOUR-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and are now tied with Washington for first in the NFC East (Eagles are only 3-8-1) but do own the tiebreaker. QB Jones missed last week's win at Seattle, despite Colt McCoy going just 13 of 22 for 105 yards with one TD and one INT (67.4 QB rating). However, RB Gallman ran for 135 yards and the New York defense held Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense to just one TD. 

The victory marked New York's first win this season over a winning team but while the Cards are just 6-6, Arizona is still 'alive' in the NFC wild card chase. Jones is expected to be back but is that really good news. He has more INTs (9) than TD passes (8) on the season with one of the NFL's worst QB ratings (78.7) among regular starters. The Cards are the better team and are overdue for a breakout performance. The "numbers" tell us that the Cards are 8-3 ATS in non-division road games AND that the Giants are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 as a home dog since the start of the 2018 season (an 80% go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked as good as any team in the NFC when they were sitting at 6-2 but a 1-3 run has seen them fall back to 7-5 and all of a sudden, the Bucs are fighting for a wild card spot. As for the Vikings, they were 10-6 last season and upset the 13-3 Saints in the playoffs but opened the 2020 season 1-5. However, in contrast to the Bucs, the Vikings come into this contest having won FIVE and six and at 6-6, are tied with the Cards just ONE game back of the Bucs plus Minnesota currently own the tiebreaker over Arizona. Both teams can bolster their NFC playoff chances with a win on Sunday.

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins rarely gets respect but he's completing 67.8% for 3,073 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs for a 103.9 QB rating in 2020. That comes on the heels of him completing 70.1 and 69.1% in his first two seasons with the Vikings, passing for 4,298  and 3,603 yards with 56 YTDs and 16 INTs with QB ratings of 90.7 and 107.4. He misses WR Diggs (at Buffalo) but rookie Jefferson has 61 catches on 17.0 YPC with seven TDs, while veteran Thielen has 57 catches with 12 TDs. RB Dalvin Cook is the No. 2 rusher in the league (1,250 yards on 5.0 YPC) and the leader in rushing TDs with 13. He had 38 touches (32 rushes, 6 catches) in Minnesota's 27-24 overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Of course, the defense has struggled for most of the season (27.4 PPG allowed ranks 26th) but let's not ignore those FIVE wins in six games (loss came by THREE points).

Tampa Bay limped into its bye last week with three losses in its last four games,  two by three points each to the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. A Week 13 bye was likely good news, as the team has been plagued by slow starts (Bucs have been outscored 52-7 in the first quarter of their last four games). Brady's passed for 3,3000 yards with 28 TDs and 11 INTs (on pace for about 4,400 yards with 37 TDs) and RB Ronald Jones is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards with 820 (5.1 YPC and five TDs). WRs Goodwin (49 catches and three TDs ) and Evans (48 catches and 11 TDs) are also getting contributions from TE Gronk (37 catches and four TDs). The season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 23.3 PPG (11th) on 329.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide, the "stop unit" has done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG.

Brady has surely made the Bus better but the Bucs continue to struggle as a home favorite (long-time 'ugly' numbers), going 1-3 ATS in that role in 2020. Minnesota's balanced offense should give Tampa Bay's defense fits and I will NOT ignore Minnesota's 5-1 SU run with the LONE loss coming by just THREE points. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Total of the Month is on SD St/BYU Over at 10:00 ET.

BYU was ranked no. 8 in the AP poll when the first CFP standings were released and the Cougars found themselves at No. 14. The second CFP rankings saw them move up just one spot, so when the chance came to replace Liberty in its game at Coastal Carolina last Saturday, BYU jumped at the chance with little prep time. The gamble didn't pan out, as the Cougars were held to season-lows of 17 points and yards in the 22-17 loss. The 9-1 Cougars (now No. 18 in the CFP standings) will complete its season by hosting the 4-3 San Diego St Aztecs, looking to secure its first 10-win season since 2011. SD State entered the current season having won 10-plus games in four of its last five years

The Aztecs opened 3-1 but then lost 26-21 at Nevada on Nov 21. The team's game with Fresno St on Nov 27 was canceled early in the week and SDSU hastily arranged a game in Boulder against Colorado but lost 20-10. SD State rebounded with a 29-17 win over a 1-5 Colorado St team last Saturday.

SDSU's defense was great last season, allowing 12.7 PPG on only 288.0 YPG and has posted similar numbers in 2020 (16.3 PPG ranks 8th and 269.6 YPG ranks 3rd). However, San Diego State is just 104th in total offense (343.9 YPG) in averaging 26.1 PPG and it faces a BYU defense that rates fourth in scoring defense (14.7 PPG) and seventh in total defense (300.0 YPG). Head coach Brady Hoke said QB Jordon Brookshire will make his second straight start, after he completed 14 of 24 passes for 130 yards (one TD / one INT) in last Saturday's 29-17 win over Colorado State. RB Greg Bell (team-high 569 rushing yards on 5.9 YPC with six TDs ) has been slowed by an ankle injury but is said to be getting closer to full health.

The Aztecs shut down BYU in last season's 13-3 in San Diego but they are catching the Cougars at the WRONG time and WRONG place. QB Zach Wilson has had a terrific season (73.0% with 27 TDs and just three INTs) but is coming off his worst game of the season against the Chanticleers. He threw for only 240 yards with one TD and one INT, giving him a season-worst, single-game QB rating of 134.9 (it's 197.4 on the season). He has two excellent WRs in Milne (55 catches / 18.4 YPC / 7 TDs) and Romney (38 catches / 19.9 YPC) plus TE Rex has eight TD catches among his 27 catches. Even after the Coastal Carolina game, BYU is averaging a whopping 44.5 PPG on 525.0 YPG.

BYU had topped 40 points in FIVE straight games and EIGHT of nine before scoring only 17 in the loss to the Chanticleers. I realize SDSU has a quality D but I fully expect the Cougars to 'take out' last Saturday's loss on the Aztecs. San Diego State is just 2-16 all-time at LaVell Edwards Stadium and expect 40 points (maybe more more) from BYU making this a prime spot to go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET.

The Virginia Cavaliers (5-4 / 4-4 ACC) are riding a four-game winning streak and haven't lost since Oct. 24 entering Saturday night's Commonwealth Cup battle in Blacksburg, Va. In contrast, the Va Tech Hokies (4-6 / 4-5 ACC) enter on a four-game losing streak and haven't won since Oct. 31. This will be the 102nd meeting of a series dating back to 1895 and was originally scheduled for Sep 19 but COVID-19 issues in the Hokies' program forced the postponement to this date.

Bronco Mendenhall spent 11 years as BYU head coach, leading the Cougars to 11 bowls during his tenure. He took the Virginia job in 2016 and flopped,' going 2-10 his first season. However, he righted the ship quickly, by following with THREE straight bowl berths. The 2019 season was special, as he led the Cavs to their first victory over Virginia Tech after fifteen consecutive losses in their rivalry, capping a 9–3 regular season and that secured the program's first Coastal Division title and a berth in the 2019 ACC Championship Game and 2019 Orange Bowl.

Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one.

Brennan Armstrong has taken over at QB for Virginia and has thrown 16 TDs and nine INTs, while also leading the team in rushing with 529 yards (5 TDs). He's led the Cavs to four straight wins, completing 65.3% with nine TDs and three INTs. He's off back-to-back games with more than 400 yards of total offense, passing for a career-high 383 yards and four TDs vs Abilene Christian on Nov 21 and then rushed for a career-high 130 yards and a TD in last Saturday's 43-32 win over Boston College. RB Kemp is the team's top receiver (58 catches) and TE Poljan has 33 catches and five TDs. WR Davis has played in just six games but averages 25.9 YPC on his 17 receptions with five TDs. The defense. The offense is averaging 32.4 PPG but the defense is allowing 29.2.

Va Tech QB Hendon Hooker exited last Saturday's 45-10 loss at Clemson, experiencing muscle spasms due to temperatures in the low 30s. However, by Monday he was feeling MUCH better and is expected to be just fine. He's completing 65.3% for 1,339 yards with nine TDS and five INTs, plus adds 620 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC with nine TDs. He's joined by RB Herbert, who has 1,020 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. Va Tech averages 30.9 PPG but allows 33.8.

At first blush, UVa coming in on a four-game winning streak while averaging 43.3 PPG would seem like the obvious choice against a Va Tech team on a four-game slide. UVa is looking for its first five-game winning streak since 2007 but the Hokies own a HUGE revenge motive. The Cavaliers snapped a 15-game losing streak to the Hokies with a 39-30 win last season in Charlottesville when it scored nine points in the final 1:23 with a 48-yard FG and a recovery of a Virginia Tech fumble in the end zone. Va Tech head coach Justin Fuente is on the hot seat with a 37-26 record since taking over in 2016 and with Va Tech's loss dropping them to 46, the Hokies are guaranteed to end the 2020 season with a losing record for only the second time since 1992! This will truly be Va Tech's 'bowl game." I'm on the Hokies.

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET.

USC is 4-0 and ranked 15th (CFP) and 16th (AP) as it tries to secure a spot in the Pac-12 Conference championship game when the Trojans take on crosstown rival UCLA (3-2) in the Rose Bowl. Colorado hosts Utah at 12 noon ET (7 1/2 hours before this game kicks) and if the Buffs win, USC will NEED to beat UCLA to win the Pac 12 South. USC put itself in position to play for the conference championship by beating visiting Washington State 38-13 last Sunday night. That game was pushed back two days following a small COVID-19 outbreak on the USC team, a situation that initially forced the Trojans to cancel their game against No. 21 Colorado on Nov. 28. The schedule adjustment shrank USC's window to prepare for UCLA. As for the Bruins, they are coming off a 25-18 win at Arizona State last Saturday night, their first win in the month of December since the 2013 Sun Bowl (think about that, for more than a minute or two!). The victory also lifted UCLA's record above .500 for the first time since a win on Oct. 21, 2017, had them at 4-3 (yet another thought to ponder!).

USC was once known by the nickname of "Tailback U" but no longer. This year's team is averaging a pathetic 111.5 YPG on the ground (3.6 YPC). QB Kedon Slovis leads this year's team, completing 72.1% while averaging 314.3 YPG through the air (1,257 yards in four games) with 10 TDs and just two INTS in 165 attempts. He leads an offense averaging 33.3 PPG (30th) and the defense has been sound, allowing 21.8 PPG (26th) on 356.5 YPG (34th). UCLA benefited last weekend with the return of QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (57.8% completions for 691 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs) who was among nine Bruins to miss two games because of COVID-19 concerns. He completed 18 of 24 passes for 192 yards and a TD against Arizona State. He also rushed for 49 yards and a score (218 rush yards on 5.0 YPC and 3 TDs on the season). It seems as if USC's running game has moved to Westwood, as the Bruins are averaging 2267.6 YPG on the ground (16th) on 5.6 YPC. A quick look at the team's defense shows UCLA allowing 24.8 PPG but one must CLOSER!

Let me do just that. First off, UCLA's losses are to now-No. 21 Colorado, when the Bruins allowed 48 points and to then-No. 11 Oregon, allowing 38 points. UCLA's three wins have come over the two Arizona schools (a combined 0-6 entering Friday's Territorial Cup meeting) and 1-3 Cal. The Bruins allowed just 12.7 PPG against that trio, which have a combined 1-9 record. Then there is UCLA head coach Chip Kelly who had a four-year record of 46-7 (.868) at Oregon but since moving on to the NFL and now UCLA, seems to have left his "Genius" moniker in Eugene. Kelly's teams are a combined 38-54 (.413) post-Oregon, including 10-19 (.345) at UCLA.

Anyone really trust "Sir Chip" in a big game like this? As for USC, it needed two TDs in the final three minutes to escape in its season opener 28-27 against ASU and then scored with 25 seconds left to edge Arizona 34-30. However, the Trojans have won 33-17 over Utah and 38-13 over Washington St, since. A win will give the Trojans a 5-0 record for the first time since 2006, when they started 6-0, plus propel into the Pac 12 title game against Washington, a team which just had to cancel its game with Oregon on Saturday due to COVID issues. A win there and USC will play in the Rose Bowl at 6-0. USC has won 16 of the last 21 meetings against UCLA, so expect the Trojans to 'ring' the Victory Bell at the end of Saturday's game!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Miami-Fl at 3:30 ET.

It's a battle of ranked ACC teams from Miami, Fl on Saturday, as No. North Carolina (7-3, 6-3 in the ACC) visits No. 10 Miami-Fl (8-1, 7-1 in the ACC). The Tar Heels are off a 49-9 home win last Saturday over Western Carolina, while Miami routed Duke 45-0 last Saturday, despite having 15 players out due to injuries, coronavirus and other issues. The Tar Heels lost 31-17 at home to No. 2 Notre Dame back Nov 27 but get a chance at another top-10 here against the Hurricanes, who they beat last year 28-25 at Chapel Hill with a late TD.

North Carolina opened 3-0 and rose to No. 5 in the AP poll but were then shocked 31-28 at Florida St, a team whose only other win this season has come over Jacksonville St. QB Sam Howell beat Miami as a freshman last year and is having an excellent sophomore season, completing 68.8% for 3,129 yards with 26 TDs and just six INTs. Two RBs share the ball-carrying duties and BOTH should top 1,000 yards on the season. Carter has 937 yards for 937 yards (7.1 YPC) with seven TDs and Williams has 904 yards (6.7 YPC) with 16 TDs plus has three receiving TDs among his 23 catches. WRs Brown (51 catches on 18.3 YPC with 8 TDs) and Newsome (46 catches / 13.1 YPC / 5 TDs) are Howell's main targets. North Carolina averaged 41.1 PPG but allows 28.6 YPG.

Houston transfer D'Eriq King ranks third in the ACC -- behind only Howell and Clemson's Trevor Lawrence -- in total offense (311.2 yards per game), passing for 2,334 yards with 20 TDs and only four INTs, while rushing for 467 yards and four more TDs. He has fulfilled his reputation as a dual threat. RB Harris leads with 567 yards on 5.2 YPC with eight TDs. King has a bevy of targets with a trio of WRs combining for 102 catches and 10 TDs, while both TEs have four TD catches each, combining for 40 receptions. Miami can't quite match North Carolina's offensive punch (averages 34.9 PPG) but is the much better defensive team, allowing 22.0 PPG on 366.2 YPG.

Speaking of the Miami D, despite missing five key defensive players against Duke, Miami forced FIVE turnovers. A win here and a win next weekend vs Ga Tech and Miami will cap off a 10-1 regular season, which will earn a MAJOR bowl bid. The home team has dominated this series by going 7-1 ATS and with MUCH to play for, expect Miami to avenge last season's three-point loss.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on Iowa at 3:30 ET.

Wisconsin opened its season 2-0, beating Illinois 45-7 on Oct 23 but then having two games canceled because of COVID, before trouncing Michigan 49-11 on Nov 14. In stark contrast, Iowa opened with nail-biting losses of 24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern, before winning FIVE in row to move into the national rankings at No. 16 (CFP) and Np. 19 (AP poll). The Hawkeyes look to end this condensed season with a SIXTH straight win when they host the 2-2 Badgers.

Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz completed 74.4% of his passes with seven TDs and zero INTs in Wisconsin's two wins but has completed just 57.3% in Wisconsin's two losses with one TD and four INTs. After scoring 45 and 49 points, the Wisconsin "O" has scored just 13 total points in losses to Northwestern and Indiana. That said, the Wisconsin "D" remains the nation's best, allowing 12.3 PPG (2nd) on 229.3 YPG (1st). Yes, Wisconsin has played only four games but it's rare to see a defense ranked 1st in both rushing D (72.3 YPG ) and passing D (157.0 YPG).

Don't dismiss Iowa's D, which has allowed 17.3 PPG (14th) on 326.4 YPG (15th). QB Spencer Petras is no Nate Stanley, who ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! However, Petras has six TDs and just two INTs during Iowa's five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS), in which Iowa has averaged 37.2 PPG. RBs Goodson (656 yards on 5.0 YPC with six TDs) and Sargent (381 yards on 6.0 YPC with seven TDs) give Iowa a balanced offense (195.7 YPG passing and 177.3 YPG rushing).

The Wisconsin/Iowa rivalry began back in 1894 and this is the 93rd meeting The Badgers have won the last four but Iowa is the one with the MOST to play for, while Wisconsin likely just wants to put this pandemic-shortened season behind them. Iowa has outscored its last five opponents 186-76 during its longest winning streak since starting 12-0 in 2015. Make it SIX in a row!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on Army at 3:30 ET.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the site of one of college football's longest rivalries. Instead of being played at a neutral site such as Philadelphia, Washington, D.C. or Baltimore, Md. Army (7-2) will host Navy (3-6) on Saturday afternoon at Michie Stadium at West Point. It's the first time since 1943, during World War II, that the game will be played at one of the service academies' home fields.

Navy's Ken Niumatalolo took over for Paul Johnson back in 2008 and has led the Midshipmen to 10 winning seasons (and bowls) in his 12 years at the school. However, he and Navy entered the 2019 season off a brutal 3-10 year in 2018. The school's losing streak didn't last long, as the Midshipmen authored one of the finest single-season turnarounds in FBS history by going from 3-10 to 11-2, after beating Kansas St 20-17 (OT) in the Liberty Bowl. Navy's Malcolm Perry set a FBS record for rushing yards by a QB with 2,017, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring 21 rushing TDs. Navy led the nation with 360.5 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC while scoring 52 rushing TDs. However, as noted above, Navy enters this contest just 3-6.

Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season.

Navy enters this contest on a FOUR-game losing streak, averaging just 185.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC, after last year's team ran for 360.5 YPG on 6.1 YPC. FB Nelson Smith leads the Midshipmen with 622 yards and eight touchdowns on 117 carries while the passing game has been in flux. In contrast, Army ranks third in the nation with 296.3 YPG on the ground, averaging 5.0 YPC. Seven players have 225-plus rushing yards, led by Buchanan (383 yards on 4.4 YPC) and Robinson (379 yards on 7.6 YPC). NEITHER school has a passing game. Defensively, after holding opponents to just 22.3 PPG last season, Navy is allowing 32.0 PPG. Again, in contrast, Army is allowing just 16.3 PPG (8th), following up on solid defensive efforts the previous four years, allowing between 17.1-to-23.0 PPG.

Army's 6-0 SU at home this season, making them 22-2 SU at Michie Stadium since the start of the 2017. I'm laying the points. Go Army! Beat Navy!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Colorado at 12:00 ET.

Note: The game was originally scheduled for Friday night. It was moved to take the place of the Michigan-Ohio State game, which was canceled because of COVID-19 issues within the Wolverines' program. The Utah-Colorado game will start at 12:05 p.m. ET, which is 10 a.m. local time. No COVID issue regarding these teams.

The Utah Utes and the Colorado Buffaloes conclude their respective abbreviated Pac 12 seasons with this game in Boulder. Utah's Kyle Whittingham was working under Urban Meyer at Utah back in 2004, a season in which the Utes went 12-0. Meyer left for the University of Florida and Whittingham was offered the head coaching job at Utah and also the head coaching job at his alma mater, BYU. He chose Utah and this is his 16th season as the school' head coach. He took Utah to six straight bowl games beginning in 2005, then came back-to-back 5-7 records. However, in 2014, he began another stretch of six straight bowl appearances, including last year's 11-3 record. Only the 2008 team, which went 13-0, had a better one-year record. The Utes come to Boulder having played just THREE games in this "Season of COVID," winning for the first time last Saturday by holding on to beat Oregon St 30-24.

Colorado wasn't expected to do much this year after head coach Mel Tucker was hired away by Michigan State and his replacement, Karl Dorrell, had no spring practice to work in a new QB. Dorrell was head coach at UCLA from 2003 to 2007 and led the Bruins to FIVE bowl appearances in five seasons, although he did not coach in the fifth after he was fired in December 2007. Truth is, his overall record at UCLA was only 35–27. Dorrell was named the 27th full time head coach at Colorado when Mel Tucker bolted after one season for Michigan St. Tucker had taken over from Mike MacIntyre, so Dorrell is Colorado's THIRD head coach in as many seasons. With ZERO expectations, the Buffs have gone 4-0 and have a chance to win the South Division and earn a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a win here and a USC loss at UCLA on Saturday. If both Colorado and USC win (or lose), USC would win a tiebreaker with one more Pac 12 win than the Buffs.

Utah QB Bentley is averaging only 163 YPG through the air with three TDs and four INTs. Freshman RB Ty Jordan ran for 167 yards and a TD in the Utes' 30-24 win over Oregon State last Saturday, a week after a costly fumble in a loss at Washington (more later). Utah has just one player with more than seven receptions through three games and that's TE Kuithe, who has 16 but averages 7.6 YPC and had not caught a TD pass. Utah's defense allowed just 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG last season but with just TWO returning starters, has allowed 25.0 PPG on 346.3 YPG.

Colorado fell behind Arizona 13-0 by the early second quarter last Saturday but shut out the Wildcats the rest of the way for a 24-13 win. RB Jarek Broussard. Broussard has rushed for 733 yards (6.4 YPC) in four games, with 301 coming in last week's win at Arizona. He was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season. Broussard (183.3 YPG) is ahead of Rashaan Salaam's four-game total when the late Colorado tailback won the 1994 Heisman Trophy. QB Nagy did throw two INTs vs Arizona but has been steady through four games with 742 yards passing and 179 yards rushing (five rushing TDs). The Buffaloes moved into this week's AP poll at No. 21 this past Sunday for the first time since 2018 and Tuesday night was also ranked No. 21 in the latest CFP standings.

The Utes have lost 33-17 to USC and then 24-21 to Washington, after taking a 21-0 lead at the half. The team's 30-24 win against Oregon St is hardly a 'buy' sign. Meanwhile. Colorado's beaten UCLA at home, Stanford on the road and San Diego St at home, before its comeback win over Arizona. The Buffs can't control what happens in the Rose Bowl with USC and UCLA but can and I believe WILL win this one, giving the Trojans plenty to think about before taking the field on Saturday. A win here, a USC loss to UCLA and a win in the Pac 12 championship game would mean a first-ever Rose Bowl appearance for the Buffs. That's a lot to take in. I'll be happy just to see them win Friday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Ls Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have won FOUR of their last five, including a 45-0 'spanking' over the Chargers last Sunday. That game was played SoFi Stadium and New England head coach Bill Belichick and his team celebrated that triumph by staying in Los Angeles and working out at UCLA as opposed to making a pair of cross-country flights, as the Pats are right back in SoFi Stadium on Thursday night to face the Los Angeles Rams. Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11 but as Week 14 dawns, the Rams and Seahawks are tied at 8-4 (Rams currently own the tiebreaker), while the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6.

That Pats won 45-0 last Sunday in a game in which they gained just 291 of total offense. QB Cam Newton passed for only 69 yards but did have 48 rushing yards with two TDs. The Pats became the seventh team in league history to have a punt returned for a TD (70 yards) and a blocked field goal returned for a TD (44 yards) in the same game. New England did run for 165 yards and for the season have averaged 150.9 YPG on the ground (3rd in the NFL). However, Newton has been just AWFUL as a passer with just five TDs and nine INTs and a QB rating of 80.3 (among the worst of all QBs). The team's top-two pass catchers (Byrd and Meyers) have a combined 75 receptions and just one TD! New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) last season but even after last week's shutout, is allowing 21.3 PPG (NINE points per game more than LY) on 344.6 YPG (about 70 YPG more).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 17-10 (QB rating of 93.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.2 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson, Brown and recently Akers have shared the ball carrying duties. Cam Akers ran 21 times for 72 yards and a TD in LA;s 38-28 win over the Cards but he has an ailing shoulder. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown will fill in just fine if he's not 100 percent. While New England's top-two receivers have combined for just 75 catches, LA's Kupp has 74 catches and Woods 71. The TE duo of Higbee and Everett have a combined 66 catches with five TDs. As for defense, led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fifth in scoring defense (20.3 PPG) and second in total defense (295.3 YPG).

An important matchup will be New England's running game (150.9 YPG ranks 3rd) against LA's rush D, which allows 93.1 YPG (3rd-best). The Pats were just 1-4 SU on the road before last Sunday's 45-0 blowout, with their LONE win coming against the still-winless Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. A quick turnaround here vs a VERY good Rams team is NOT a good spot for the Pats. The Rams own impressive wins over Seattle and at Tampa Bay plus last week's 10-point win at Arizona over their last four games (loss came on a FG by the Niners on the final play of the game). Rams are the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Buf Bills at 8:15 ET.

The 8-3 Buffalo Bills and 5-6 San Francisco 49ers meet MNF at the home of the Arizona Cardinals, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. The 49ers' home field is Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca and due to new COVID-related restrictions in Santa Clara County San Francisco's "home" games in Week 13 (Buffalo) and Week 14 (Washington) have been relocated to the Cardinals' home stadium. The Bills sit atop the AFC East but Miami's win on Sunday means that Buffalo needs to win here to stay one game up on the Dolphins. As for San Francisco, the defending NFC champs are currently in last place in the NFC West, although a win here would move them to 6-6 and into a tie with Arizona and Minnesota, just ONE game behind 7-5 Tampa Bay, which currently holds the NFC's final wild card spot.

Buffalo enters the contest having won FOUR of five, with the lone loss having come at Arizona in Week 10 with what was an almost UNBELIEVABLE ending! The Bills got a much-needed bye in Week 11 Bills and returned in Week 12 with a 27-17 home win over Los Angeles Chargers behind a running and a passing TD from QB Josh Allen and a trick-play score on a 20-yard pass from Cole Beasley to fellow WR Gabriel Davis. Josh Allen is in his third season. He made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's come into his own in 2020, completing 68.8% for 3,028 yards with 22 TDs and eight INTs, while rushing for 311 yards with six TDs. His QB rating was 67.9 in his rookie season, 85.3 in 2019 and it's up to 102.3 in 2020. More importantly, he has the Bills at 8-3, putting them in position to capture their first division title since 1995. Allen doesn't get much support from his running game either, as the Bills are averaging just 10.4 YPG on the ground (21st). However, the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team with 80 catches (four TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 57 through 11 games (on pace for 83). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.6 PPG (about 10 points higher), on 373.1 YPG (about 75 yards more per game).

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.5% for 1,642 yards with six TDs and seven INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just five games (346 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 315 yards on 3.9 YPC but does have five TDs and 27 catches. San Francisco upset the Rams 23-20 last Sunday and the good news was Mostert returned and WR Samuel returned to catch 11 passes for 133 yards but TE Kittle (37 catches leads the team despite him playing just six games) remains sidelined. The 49ers are averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and with Mullens and injuries to their receiving corps, are averaging only 23.7 PPG, down from 29.9 PPG last season.

The Bills have steadily improved under head coach Sean McDermott and want to make sure they DON'T repeat last season 2-3 finish, when they were also 8-3 through 11 games. Buffalo controls its own destiny in the AFC East and after this game, has only one "sure win" in its four remaining games (Denver). The other three are against Pittsburgh (11-0), New England (has won FIVE of six) and Miami. "Big game" for the Bills and a win would be "just desserts" coming in the same stadium they lost that heartbreaker to the Cardinals!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The 5-6 New England Patriots have won the AFC East 11 straight years (17 of the last 19) and last had a losing season back in 2000, going 5-11 in Bill Belichick's first season as the Pats' head coach. The Patriots visit LA on Sunday for a game with the 3-8 LA Chargers, having won THREE of their last four to get them to within one game of .500. The contest marks the first of a three-game road trip beginning with Chargers, then staying in LA for a Thursday night game with Rams in Week 14 and finishing up with a game at Miami in Week 15. "We are not where we need to be or want to be," said Belichick. "[A fast start] will be important this week. It's important every week."

The Chargers will take the field having lost FOUR of their last five to fall to 3-8 in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. In fact, the matchup will be the first between the Patriots and Chargers NOT to feature either Tom Brady or Philip Rivers at QB since 1997. Brady famously left New England after 20 years and Rivers left the Chargers after 16 year to sign with the Colts.

New England was counting on former MVP Cam Newton to lead the offense but has just FOUR touchdown passes in 266 attempts with nine INTs. He does have 387 rushing yards (9 TDs) for a running game that ranks fifth by averaging 149.6 YPG on the ground. However, the team's receiving corps is a pathetic group. Edleman is out with an injury (had just 21 catches after six games), while WRs Byrd and Meyers have 71 combined catches and just one TD reception. New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) but this season the Pats are allowing 23.2 PPG (that's NINE more per game) on 352.5 YPG.

The Chargers lost Rivers but have found a "franchise" QB in Justin Herbert. He's completing 66.9% for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and seven TDs (110.9 QB rating). WR Allen is having another brilliant season with 85 catches and seven TDs plus TE Henry has 48 catches with three TDs. The running game is no better than average (117.2 YPG ranks 11th) but the return of Austin Ekeler last week is GREAT news. He ran for 557 yards (3 TDs) and caught 92 passes (8 TDs) last season and last Sunday at Buffalo ran for 44 yards and caught 11 passes for 85 yards. The Chargers are allowing 27.3 PPG (25th) but a more modest 342.9 YPG (12th).

The Chargers have blown double digit leads on a regular basis but I like them here vs the Pats. Yes, the Pats have won three of four but in five road games in 2020, they are 1-4 SU with their LONE win coming against 0-11 Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock.

Methinks the Pats have a VERY good chance of a losing season!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC West) is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. Seattle is currently 8-3 but the Rams (7-4) and the Cards (6-5) have fallen off the pace, as they square off in a critical game at Glendale, Az on Sunday. The Rams fell out of a first-place tie with the Seahawks on Sunday after a last-second 23-20 home defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, while the Cardinals fell two games off the pace after they lost 20-17 at the New England Patriots, also on a last-second FG. Catching Seattle will be tough (Seahawks have a very easy schedule ahead) but the loser of this game will really hurt its wild card chances.

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,400 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-10 (QB rating of 92.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.6 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson (510 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (371 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. WRs Kupp (66 catches) and Woods (61) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 56 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fourth in scoring defense (19.5 PPG) and second in total defense (296.7 YPG).

Kyler Murray has thrown for 2,814 yards with 19 TDs and nine INTs. He's also run for 650 yards (6.7 YPC) with 10 TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 719 yards (4.3 YPC) and seven TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 43 catches but he's averaging only 7.8 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 77 catches, with Kirk catching 34 passes with six TDs.

However, here's the rub. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are a successful Hail Mary pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins away from being on a four-game losing streak. Opponents have started to contain Murray's passing ability with blitzes and have stifled his running ability by focusing on him rather than the backs on handoff zone-reads. The Rams defense is surely capable of doing the same. Speaking of defense, when the Cards beat the 49ers back on Oct 25, they entered that game with their defense allowing just 18.7 PPG. However, including that 34-31 win in OT, the Arizona defense has allowed 29.2 PPG over its last five games.

Jared Goff lost a fumble in Sunday's defeat to the 49ers and threw TWO interceptions, one which was returned for a TD. After the game, head coach Sean McVay said his quarterback has to take better care of the football. As for Goff, he responded, "I'm a big boy," he said. "I can handle it." Goff shouldn't lack for confidence, as this series has clearly been one-sided over the last three years with the Rams going a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS. Why not a 'Lucky 7' in a row?

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The New Orleans Saints opened the 2020 season with a 34-23 home win over Tom Brady and the Bucs but then lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders and at home to the Packers to fall to 1-2. However, the Saints have won EIGHT in a row since, including the last two with Taysom Hill filling at QB for the injured Drew Brees. The Saints now own a 2 1/2-game lead over Tampa Bay atop the NFC South and a one-game lead over Green Bay atop the NFC. The Falcons opened the season 0-5, which led to the firing of head coach Dan Quinn. Raheem Morris has been named interim head coach and the Falcons have gone 4-2, after routing the Raiders 43-3 last Sunday.

These two teams just met in New Orleans in Week 11 with the Saints winning 24-9 in Hill's first career start at QB. Hill has yet to throw TD pass but has run for 93 yards in his two starts with two rushing TDs in each contest. RB Kamara is one of the NFL's most versatile players, rushing for 585 yards (8 TDs) while catching 68 passes (4 TDs). Fellow RB Murray has 551 yards on the season, after gaining a season-high 124 yards at Denver last Sunday (scored two TDs). The Saints have always been known for their offense but after allowing 29.8 PPG in 2015 and 28.4 PPG in 2016, New Orleans has turned into a good defensive team. The Saints allowed 20.4 PPG in 2017, 22.1 in 2018 and 21.3 in 2019. This season, the Saints are allowing 20.5 PPG (5th) on 284.9 YPG, which ranks first in the NFL.

The Falcons have played well since the coaching change and if not for a TD pass by Detroit QB Stafford on the final play of the game in Week 7, the Falcons would be 5-1 under Morris. Ryan is on pace to throw for 4,500 yards and has 17 TDs and eight INTs. Gurley (610 yards on 3.7 YPC) has not given the running game the boost expected but he does have nine rushing TDs. Atlanta has a trio of good WRs in Ridley (54), Jones (45) and Gage (45) plus TE Hurst has 41 catches. The good news here is that WR Julio Jones and RB Todd Gurley hope to return Sunday after missing the game against Las Vegas.

Kudos to the New Orleans D and Hill's play at QB but the Saints are facing an Atlanta team with a strong revenge motive plus an offense led by Ryan, who in NO way resembles the QB 'nightmare' situation the Broncos served up last Sunday at Mile High. I really like the way Atlanta has played under Morris and the fact that the Falcons come in on a 6-1 ATS run as a NFC South home dog, doesn't hurt. Bow Wow!

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts won a huge game 34-17 in Tennessee against the Titans back in Week 10 and followed in Week 11 with a 34-31 OT win at home over the Packers (trailed 28-14 at the half) but 'ran out of gas' last Sunday at home, when the Titans (behind Henry's 178 rushing yards and three TDs) crushed the Colt 45-26. The 7-4 Colts now trail the 8-3 Titans in the AFC South as they visit Houston to take on the Texans. The Texans entered the season having won FOUR of the previous five AFC titles but not much has gone right for Houston this season. The Texans crushed the sad-sack Lions 41-25 on Thanksgiving but Houston is just 4-7 on the season and the playoffs are hardly a serious likelihood.

The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid. Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through 11 games he's got 2,978 yards. His completion rate of 67.3% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 93.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). Rookie RB Taylor (518 rushing yards / 3.8 YPC) has been a disappointment but fellow RB Hines leads the team with 44 catches. WRs Hilton (33 catches) and Pascal (32) are hardly special but the Indy defense, despite some recent issues, has been strong. The Colts are allowing 23.0 PPG (9th) and 311.8 YPG (5th).

Houston signed QB Deshaun Watson to a huge contract before the season and it's hard to blame the team's poor season on him. He's completing 68.9% for 3,2101 yards with 24 TDs and just five INTs. He enters this game without an interception in SIX straight games but the Texans are just 3-3 in those contests. No one really expected that Houston could play its way into the playoff picture but with WR Will Fuller V and cornerback Bradley Roby earning season-ending suspensions based on violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, the Texan's slim hopes have 'left town!' Fuller was having the most productive season of his five-year career with 53 receptions, 879 yards and eight touchdowns. Replacing him will be all but impossible on the heels of the Texans losing WR Randall Cobb (38 catches / 3 TDs) to injury. The team's prospects are not helped by a defense allowing 27.0 PPG (23rd) on 409.5 YPG (30th).

These teams will meet again in Week 15 but I'm taking the Colts here, as they've covered SIX of their last seven matchups with the Texans, who have very little left to play for in 2020.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* play is on Wyoming/New Mexico Over at 1):30 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Saturday morning.

My 8* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

Jeff Tedford did a great job at Fresno St, taking over a program that had gone 1-11 in 2016 by going 10-4 and 12-2 in his first two seasons. However, the Bulldogs fell to 4-8 last season and Tedford resigned for health concerns. Getting his first head coaching job at the FBS level was Kalen DeBoer, who had a truly amazing run at NAIA school Sioux Falls. He left with a 67-3 five-year run of 67-3,, including going 56-1 over his last four years while winning THREE of four NAIA national championships. The Bulldogs opened the 2020 season by getting upset 34-19 at home by Hawaii but have since won THREE in a row SU and ATS. The offense is averaging 33.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (23rd), and while the defense allows 417.3 YPG (72nd), it's holding opponents to 23.5 PPG (32nd)

Jay Norvell enters his fourth season in Reno and after going 3-9 in his first season, he's led the Wolf Pack to back-to-back winnings season and two bowl bids. Nevada opened the 2020 season 5-0 (4-1 ATS) but then lost 24-21 at Hawaii (ask Fresno about the Rainbow Warriors). Nevada's offense averages 30.3 PPG (58th) on 446.5 YPG (32nd) and its defense has been strong all season, allowing 21.2 PPG (21st) on 321.5 YPG (15th).

Fresno St has not played since Nov 14 (last two games have been canceled) and will catch an 'angry' Wolf Pack team which just had its 5-0 season spoiled last Saturday in 'paradise!' The difference in this game will be the play of Nevada QB Carson Strong (71.3% with 16 TDs and just two INTs) and WR Doubs, who averages 21.3 YPC with nine TD grabs in just six games. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on San Diego St at 7:00 ET.

Colorado St went to FIVE consecutive bowl games from 2013 through 2017 but back-to-back 39 and 4-8 seasons followed in 2018 and 2019. Calls for head coach Mike Bobo's firing gained steam throughout last season. Just over 12,000 people attended the final home game against Boise State, one of the Rams' worst home crowds since before Sonny Lubick's arrival with Bobo and CSU mutually agreeing to part ways just days later. Steve Addazio got the job, after being fired at BC. He did lead BC to SIX bowl appearances in his seven-year tenure but his teams never won more than seven games in a season and his career mark at the school ended at 44-44. The Rams have seen their last two games canceled and have played just THREE games to-date. Colorado St won 34-24 at home vs Wyoming but in two road games, has lost 38-17 at Fresno St and 52-21 at Boise St.

Brady Hoke is back coaching the Aztecs after Rocky Long retired after the 2019 season. He took over a program that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five years and has been to 10 consecutive bowl games! The Aztecs opened 3-1 but then lost 26-21 at Nevada on Nov 21. The team's game with Fresno St on Nov 27 was canceled early in the week and SDSU hastily arranged a game in Boulder against Colorado. The Buffs are a good team and the Aztecs lost 20-10. The defense was great last season, allowing 12.7 PPG on only 288.0 YPG and it hasn't been too far off those numbers in 2020 (16.2 PPG ranks 9th and 270.3 YPG ranks 3rd).

This marks SDSU's final home game of the season, as the Aztecs finish next Saturday at BYU (good luck in that one!). Lay the points here with the Aztecs.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Georgia Southern at 6:00 ET.

The 5-1 Florida Atlantic Owls of C-USA visit Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, Ga for a game with the 6-4 Georgia Southern Eagles. The game was originally scheduled to be played back on Sep 19 but the schools were able to reschedule. FAU lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss after he led the Owls to an 11-3 season in 2019 and just two days after Lane Kiffin resigned, FAU announced the hiring of Willie Taggart. This marks Taggert's FOURTH different head coaching job since 2016 (USF, Oregon, FSU and now FAU). Chad Lunsford served as interim coach at Georgia Southern for the second half of the 2017 season following the firing and departure of Tyson Summers. The team finished that season 2-4 but he was awarded the head coaching gig on November 27, 2017. 10-3 and 7-6 seasons followed (including two bowl berths) and Lunsford had the Eagles at 6-2 before back-to-back road losses at Army (28-27) and to rival Georgia St (30-24).

Florida Atlantic's lone loss is to 7-0 Marshall (20-9 on the road) and has won FOUR in a row since over UTSA, Western Kentucky, FIU and UMass. Florida Atlantic doesn't overwhelm on offense, averaging 21.0 PPG (106th) on 330.5 YPG (113th). However, they have been stout on defense, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 293.0 YPG (7th). Georgia Southern's option attack averages 267.6 YPG on the ground (5th), as QB Werts is the team's leading rusher (649 yards) with three RBs chipping in between 447 and 625 yards. The offense is far from prolific (27.0 PPG ranks just 89th) but the defense has played well all season, allowing 23.0 PPG (29th) on 329.9 YPG (22nd).

FAU's four-game winning streak is far from impressive as the wins have come by the following scores; 24-3 over UTSA 24-3, 10-6 over Western Kentucky, 38-19 over FIU and 24-2 over UMass. Only UTSA owns a winning record (7-4). Western Ky is 4-6 plus FIU and UMass are a combined 0-9! Georgia Southern has lost to the SBC's two-best teams, by just TWO points (on a late FG) at ULL and by 28-14 at Coastal Carolina, in a game that was tied 14-14 midway through the fourth quarter. Georgia Southern is 5-0 at home this season, after going 5-1 each of the last two seasons. That is a 15-2 SU run and at this 'price,' Ga Southern is a bargain!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Coastal Carolina at 5:30 ET.

The College Football Playoff selection committee made it clear in each of its first two rankings that BYU's weak schedule was keeping it outside the top-10. The Cougars play as an Independent and had planned a 2020 schedule which included three Pac-12 teams, two Big Ten teams and one SEC team (it was being touted as the strongest in the program's storied history). However, BYU had to build a schedule from scratch when the Big Ten and Pac 12 postponed their respective seasons in August and the SEC decided to play a conference-only schedule. What remained was a slate that did not have any Power 5 schools. BYU's strength of schedule is currently No. 87 with only three wins against FBS teams over .500. BYU's athletic director Tom Holmoe felt a sense of urgency to try to quickly schedule another quality opponent and an "incredible opportunity" arose this week, when BYU was able to replace Liberty as Coastal Carolina's opponent on Saturday, after COVID-19 issues prevented the Flames from playing in the game. The game was put together at warp speed, as Holmoe said he first learned of Liberty's precarious position on Wednesday morning but it wasn't until Thursday morning that the game became official. 9-0 BYU is No. 8 in the AP poll but just 13th in the CFP standings and 9-0 Coastal Carolina is No. 14 in the AP and No. 18 in CFP. BYU can't possibly expect that a win at Coastal Carolina will vault them into 'Final Four' territory but a win and then a win Dec 12 against San Diego St could earn them one of the more lucrative bowl bids. Win or lose, Coastal Carolina has already qualified for the SBC title game in which the Chanticleers will get a rematch of their 30-27 win Oct 14 at ULL. That sets the stage.

BYU head coach Kalani Sitake took over at Provo back in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, only the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6 again. Yes, the strength of BYU's schedule deserves to be taken into account but the 'eye test' reveals a team averaging 47.6 PPG (4th) on 538.3 YPG (4th), along with a defense allowing 13.9 PPG (4th) on 292.7 YPG (6th). QB Zach Wilson has been TERRIFIC, completing 74.3% for 2,724 yards with 26 TDs and just two INTS (his QB rating of 205.3 ranks second to only Alabama's Mac Jones). RB Allgeier is headed for a 1,000-yard season with 851 yards on 7.2 YPC with 11 TDs. Four players have 24 or more catches with WR Milne leading with 49 (6 TDs), and WR Romney leading with his 20.8 YPC average on 34 catches. TE Rex has 24 receptions but a team-high eight TD catches.

Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have NEVER looked back, winning at ULL and home to Appalachian St, the two schools which have met in the last two SBC title games. Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 67.2% for 1,747 yards with 20 TDS and just ONE interception, while rushing for 368 yards and five TDs, C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) in 2019 but has amore modest 592 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs through nine games this season. WR Heiligh leads with 41 catches and eight TD grabs, while TE Likely has just 17 catches but averages 24.9 YPC with four TDs.

The storyline of this game seems to be just how much a BYU win will help the Cougars with the CFP committee. However, I can't help but believe Coastal Carolina is asking, "What about us?" BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe is calling this game at Coastal Carolina an "incredible opportunity." That could be true but I'm reminded of that old proverb that states, "Be careful what you wish for!" The Coastal Carolina 'eye test' reveals a team averaging 38.7 PPG on 448.3 YPG, while allowing 16.8 PPG on 322.2 YPG. I'm 'jumping all over' Coastal Carolina with all those points!

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* PERFECT STORM is on NC State at 4:00 ET.

7-3 North Carolina State (6-3 ACC) plays its final game of the season on Saturday against 3-5 Georgia Tech (3-4 ACC). NC State is still smarting from last year's 28-26 defeat to the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, when an injury-depleted Wolfpack team fell behind 21-3 and saw their comeback fall short when a final two-point conversion failed. Surprisingly, NC State has not beaten Ga Tech in Raleigh since 2000!

Georgia Tech took the field last Saturday having not played since Oct 31 and ended a three-game losing streak with a 56-33 win over Duke. QB Sims set career highs for rushing yard (108) and TD passes (three) becoming the first freshman in the country to run for at least 100 yards and pass for at least three TDs in a game this season. That outstanding effort still leaves Sims with a modest 58.8% completion rate, just 1,492 passing yards and with as many INTs (11) as TD passes (11) on the season. He's added 385 rushing yards with four TDs. The Yellow Jackets average 193.6 YPG on the ground (39th) but the team's leading rusher (Gibbs) has just 460 yards. He also leads the team with 24 catches (12.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Camp has 22 catches for 14.5 YPC with three TDs and fellow wide-out Carter has 17 catches (14.4 YPC / 3 TDs). The Ga Tech defense is allowing 38.9 PPG which remains an issue.

Last year's starting QB Leary has been replaced by Bailey Hochman, who has thrown for 1,511 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight games. He passed for a career-high 313 yards and four TDs in the Wolfpack's most recent win, 36-29 at Syracuse. NC State has not run the ball as well as Ga Tech but does have two solid RBs in Knight (698 yards / 5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) and Person (576 yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WRs Emezie and Thomas each have 36 catches, combining for 11 TDs. TE Angeline has 25 catches for 15.5 YPC with six TD catches. Like Ga Tech, the NC State defense is a negative, allowing 31.4 PPG.

NC State sits at 7-3, with ALL of its losses coming against ranked opponents. NC State has played FIVE ranked opponents in all, winning two of those games. NC State enters on a three-game winning streak with Hockman settling in at QB with seven TDs and three INTs during the streak. As for Ga Tech, let's note that all five of the team's losses have come by 17 or more points and here's a stat head coach Geoff Collins doesn't want you to hear. He was just 3-9 in his first season (2019) and has followed by going 3-5 in 2020. That's just SIX wins and following his first five wins (his sixth was last week vs Duke), Ga Tech has not just lost all FIVE but has also gone 0-5 ATS with an average margin of defeat of 30.4 PPG. Good enough for me!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Revenge Game of the Year is on Virginia at 3:30 ET.

Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country and was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 6-4 (5-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and The Eagles will play their final regular season game of the year Saturday at Virginia.

Bronco Mendenhall spent 11 years as BYU head coach, leading the Cougars to 11 bowls during his tenure. He took the Virginia job in 2016 and flopped,' going 2-10 his first season. However, he righted the ship quickly, by following with THREE straight bowl berths. The 2019 season was special, as he led the Cavs to their first victory over Virginia Tech after fifteen consecutive losses in their rivalry, capping a 9–3 regular season and that secured the program's first Coastal Division title and a berth in the 2019 ACC Championship Game and 2019 Orange Bowl. It was the program's first Orange Bowl bid since turning down an invite 68 years earlier (for the 1952 Orange Bowl) and only the third New Year's Six appearance of any Coastal Division member. It was also the Cavaliers' most prestigious bowl appearance since George Welsh led the 1990 team to the Sugar Bowl.

Boston College is off a 34-27 victory at home over Louisville last Saturday, despite starting QB Phil Jurkovec (left knee) and No. 1 RB David Bailey (upper body) to injuries. Backup QB Dennis Grosel came on and threw two fourth-quarter TDs in the win. Jurkovec is a Notre Dame transfer and has completed 61 percent of his passes for 2,558 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. As for Grosel, who started seven games in 2019, he said "It's kind of like riding a bike. I did it last year, so I hopped right on and held on for the ride." Bailey leads BC's running game with a modest 503 yards and the Eagles only average 112.6 YPG on the ground (113th), averaging a pathetic 3.3 YPC. WR Flowers has 48 catches with seven TDs and TE Long 49 catches with four TDs. The BC defense allows 26.9 PPG, just under what the team's offense scores (27.4.

Armstrong has taken over at QB for Virginia and has thrown 15 TDs and eight INTs, while also leading the team in rushing with 399 yards (4 TDs). The Cavs' running game is not bad, averaging 163.8 YPG (50 YPG more than BC) plus RB Kemp is the team's top receiver (52 catches). TE Poljan has 30 catches and five TDs plus WR Davis, who has played in just five games, averages 26.7 YPC on his 14 receptions with five TDs. 

The Cavaliers are 0-6 all-time against the Eagles heading into Saturday's home finale in Charlottesville, including an 0-2 record at home and an 0-4 mark since Boston College joined the Atlantic Coast Conference in 2005. So why should UVa win here? Boston College has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games and is coming off a win last Saturday (see above). The status QB Jurkovec and RB Bailey is not clear but I'm 'ON' Virginia, regardless. Armstrong has led UVa to three straight wins, throwing eight TD passes and just two INTs (also added three rushing TDs plus 178 yards), as the Cavs have averaged 43.3 PPG. Virginia is 16-2 SU at Scott Stadium dating back to the start of the 2018 season. Revenge works well in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Appalachian St at 7:00 ET.

No. 20 ULL (8-1 / 6-1 SBC) visits Appalachian St (7-2, 5-1) on Friday night. Louisiana has already secured a spot in the conference championship game as the SBC-East champs, while Appalachian St's loss to Coastal Carolina (9-0 / 7-0) means it will not have a chance to defend its back-to-back SBC title game wins over ULL in 2018 and 2019.

Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season and gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38),before capping its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL is fresh off last Saturday's 70-20 pounding of UL-Monroe, improving to 5-0 in road games.

Appalachian State will be forever-linked to its upset of Michigan back in 2007. There was no official pointspread on the game but App St's 34-32 win has been called the greatest upset in college football history. Appalachian State moved up to the FBS level in 2014 and has made quite an impression. Beginning in 2015, the Mountaineers have gone 54-12 (.818) and been to five straight bowls, winning all five. Scott Satterfield led App St through 2018 but then left for Louisville. Eliah Drinkwitz led the Mountaineers to a 12-1 record in 2019 and a second straight SBC championship but bolted to Missouri before the school's 31-17 win over UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. Shawn Clark coached App St in the bowl win and became the school's THIRD head coach in three seasons.

ULL has outstanding balance on offense, passing for 227.0 YPG and rushing for 217.3. QB Levi Lewis has thrown for 2,027 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs, even though no player has more than 23 receptions. The running game is shared by Mitchell (656 yards / 6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Ragas (617 yards / 5.9 YPC / 7 TDs). The defense is solid, allowing 21.9 PPG (23rd) on 354.2 YPG (32nd). QB Zach Thomas is completing 66.7% for App St, throwing for 1,775 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs, down from last year's numbers (2,718 yards with 28 TDs and six INTs). The Mountaineers are averaging 256.6 YPG on the ground (7th) on 5.6 YPC. Five players have more than 250 yards, led by Peoples (639 yards / 6.0 YPC / 6 TDs) and Harrington (595 yards / 5.6 YPC / 7 TDs). Like ULL, the team's receiving corps is very mediocre. However, the defense is VERY good, allowing just 18.0 PPG (15th) on 320.0 YPG (13th).

Here's the rub. ULL has had the better season but has already clinched a spot in the SBC championship game and will get a shot at Coastal Carolina, which is currently unbeaten. What's more, the Ragin' Cajuns are trying to avoid the distraction of Billy Napier's name surfacing as a potential candidate for higher-profile head coaching jobs. It's also impossible to ignore that as SBC foes, Appalachian St is 8-0 SU vs ULL. This marks Appalachian State's final home game of the season (has avoided COVID postponements) and would surely love to continue its domination of ULL. How about this? With ULL coming in as the AP's 20th-ranked team (No. 25 in the CFP), this marks the first time in school history that a top-25 team will come to Boone, North Carolina's Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Mountaineers are the small favorite and win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Entering Week 11, the Cards, Rams and Seahawks all were 6-3, tied atop the NFC West. Meanwhile, the defending NFC West champion 49ers (not to mention the defending NFC champs), were just 4-6 and 'enjoying' their bye week. Seattle won 28-21 at home over Arizona on Thursday, moving to 7-3 and dropping the Cards to 6-4. The Rams were in Tampa for MNF against the Bucs and needed a win to stay tied with Seattle and did just that with a 27-24 win. The 49ers travel to LA's SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Ca on Sunday, with the Rams hoping to avenge a 24-16 loss at San Francisco back in Week 6. 

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.3% for 1,390 yards with six TDs and six INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. Garoppolo threw three TD passes in that Week 6 win, all to receivers who are currently injured (tight end George Kittle), trying to return from an injury (wide receiver Deebo Samuel), or attempting to get reinstated from the COVID-19 list (wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk). Garoppolo is currently on injured reserve himself, with a high-ankle sprain. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just four games (303 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 294 yards on 3.8 YPC but does have five TDs, The 49ers are averaging only 11.,0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and I already noted the receiving woes. After averaging 29.9 PPG last season, the 49ers are averaging just 23.8 PPG (20th) in 2020. 

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-8 (QB rating of 95.5). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.5 YPG (4.2 YPC) this season. Henderson (491 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (367 yards on 4.4 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp had 11 catches vs Tampa (64 on the season) and Woods had 12 catches (54 on the season) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 53 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks second in scoring defense (19.2 PPG) and  1st in total defense (291.9 YPG). Goff came up HUGE in outplaying Brady on MNF (376 passing yards with three TDs) and enters this contest with THREE consecutive 300-yard games. As for the Rams D, it  recorded six sacks and two interceptions against Seattle's Russell Wilson, before limiting Tampa Bay's Tom Brady to just 216 passing yards with two interceptions. Hard to see them NOT containing Nick Mullens.

The Rams should be primed to break a three-game losing streak to the 49ers and why shouldn't they win here at SoFi Stadium, where they are 4-0 (3-1 ATS), while holding opponents to just 13.0 PPG. 

Good luck...Larry    

My 10* Signature LEGEND Play is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers ended a five-game slide with a 20-0 win last Sunday against the Lions (win doesn't mean much after Detroit's Thanksgiving effort), while the Minnesota Vikings saw their three-game winning streak end with a last-minute 31-28 loss to the Cowboys (looks even worse off Dallas' Thanksgiving effort). The 4-7 Panthers travel to the 4-6 Vikings for a Sunday game between two teams not expecting to be playing postseason football in 2020. However, there is a good storyline to this contest, as Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play (he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday). This will mark his first start against his former team since he suffered a horrific left knee injury during the Vikings' 2016 training camp. The bad news for Carolina is that although RB Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Wednesday after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, head coach Matt Rhule doesn't expect his star RB to play against the Vikings.

Bridgewater missed Carolina's 20-0 win last Sunday but despite the team's poor season, he's completed 72.1% for 2,552 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. However, with McCaffrey playing only three games, Carolina's running game has NOT given Bridgewater much help, averaging only 106.4 YPG (21st). RB Davis has a modest 449 rushing yards but does help the passing game, as he's tied for second on the team with 49 catches, matching WR Samuel. Samuel averages just 9.1 YPC but WRs Anderson (team-leading 71 catches) and Moore (46 catches / 18.8 YPC / 4 TDs) have had good seasons. Carolina's shutout last week was its first in FIVE years but the D has been middle-of-the-pack all season,  allowing 24.7 PPG to rank 15th (more later).

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. 2020 is destined to follow the same script. Minnesota had won three straight games plus covered SIX of seven before its loss to the sad-sack Cowboys. RB Dalvin Cook ran for 115 yards, the FIFTH time he had done so in his last seven contests. Cook now leads the NFL with 1,069 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC with 13 TDs. In his last seven games, he's averaged 136.6 YPG on the ground while scoring 10 of his 13 rushing TDs on the season. QB Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He has NOT been that good this year but is still completing 66.9% for 2,461 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs (102.7 QB rating). It was NOT good news that WR Thielen (49 catches  with 11 TDs) was placed on the COVID-19 list on Monday but he has yet to be ruled out for Sunday. He's been a mentor to rookie WR Jefferson, who has 45 catches with a team high 18.8 YPC average and four TDs. Both TEs contribute, as Rudolph and Smith (combined 36 catches) but Smith may miss a second straight game. The problem all season has been a Minnesota defense which is allowing 27.8 PPG.

Zimmer's a defensive coach and after he saw his young defense help lead the team to three straight wins by allowing 18.3 PPG, the 'stop unit' reverted to its previous form against the Cowboys. "I thought we were getting better defensively after the last three weeks but that didn't show against Dallas," coach Mike Zimmer said. However, speaking of defenses, I don't put too much credence in the Panthers' shutout of the Lions. Why? It's pretty simple. It was an amazing turnaround for a Panthers defense which had allowed 32.7 PPG over the team's previous four contests in which Carolina had forced just TWO punts! Thielen or no Thielen, the Vikings have a balanced offense that has scored 28 or more points in SIX of its 10 games in 2020. The Vikings enter this contest on a 23-11-3 ATS  run as a home favorite and Bridgewater's "return to Minnesota" ends badly for him and the Panthers.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Featured" Sunday Total of the week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 20-13 loss in Denver last Sunday but look (expect?) to get back on track Sunday at MetLife Stadium when they face the 0-10 NY Jets, The Jets have lost 10 straight games in the same season for the first time in club history and they are two losses from matching their longest losing streak ever, a 12-game skid that bridged the 1995-96 seasons. The two AFC East rivals met in Miami back on Oct 24, with the Dolphins winning 24-0.

Tua Tagovailoa was sacked SIX times last Sunday before being benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who started against the Jets the last time the teams met. Tagovailoa came in late during that game and has been Miami's starter since. However, Tagovailoa injured the thumb on his throwing hand in practice during the week. He was originally downgraded from questionable to doubtful for Sunday's game but on Saturday afternoon, the Jets said that veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick would start. He was completing 69.8% when he was benched with 10 TDs and eight INTs. Miami owns an awful running game, averaging 94.4 YPG (30th), with Myles Gaskins (despite playing in only seven games) leading the team with 387 yards on 3.9 YPC with two TDs. He also has 30 catches, second-most on the team. WR Parker leads with 44 catches and four TDs, while TE Gesicki has 28 receptions (14.8 YPC) with two TDs. Interestingly, while the offense is averaging just 308.6 YPG (29th), the Dolphins are averaging 26.5 PPG (14th). The defense allows 380.6 YPG (21st) but allows a surprisingly low 26.4 PPG (4th).

The Jets also have a change at QB, as Sam Darnold is healthy enough to start, after missing two games with an injured right shoulder. The Jets run the ball no better than the Dolphins, averaging 98.6 YPG on the ground (25th). Leading the way is Frank Gore (447 yards), who is closing in being 100-years-old. However, the real good news is that this game will mark the first time this season Darnold would take the field with all three of his starting WRs, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. The Jets enter the game last in scoring (14.9 PPG) and in total offense (268.6 YPG). Then there is a defense that allows 30.2 PPG (31st) on 400.0 YPG (28th).

Fitzpatrick was NONE too happy about being benched and the Jets defense may give him every opportunity to deliver a "big game." It doesn't hurt that the Jets are one of the MANY teams he once played for. As for the Jets, Darnold should love the fact that his WR starters are back and let's NOT ignore that while the Jets have continued to lose, they have scored 27 and 28 points in their last two games. This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Total of the Month is on Kansas St/Baylor Over at 7:00 ET.

Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but then beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. The win over the Sooners jump started a four-game winning streak but the Wildcats enter this game having lost THREE in a row, including last Saturday's 45-0 embarrassment at Iowa St.

The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field Sep 26 with a 47-14 home win over Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in that win over Kansas. However, Baylor has lost FIVE straight games! Both teams 'limp' into this contest in Waco.

K-State hasn't won since a 55-14 defeat of Kansas helped the Wildcats reach No. 16 in the AP poll but their third straight loss, that  45-0 whitewashing at Iowa State (worst loss in five seasons) has them just 4-4. "Hopefully they're a little ticked off," head coach Chris Klieman said Monday when asked about his players' attitudes. "In the same respect, our leaders are tremendous leaders. We had a good week of practice last week after a tough loss to Oklahoma State. I can promise you that we'll have a good week of practice this week after a tough loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats have had little consistency on offense, with true freshmen, QB Will Howard and RB Deuce Vaughn, showing promise at times but they've also been very unimpressive in other games. Howard was pulled last week after going 3 of 9 for 32 yards with one INT and is completing just 52.8% on the season with more INTs (six) than TD passes (five). Vaughn is the team's leading rusher (just 415 yards) for a team averaging only 124.6 YPG on the ground. 

Baylor's QB Brewer led the Bears into the Big 12 championship game last season (lost 30-23 in OT to Oklahoma) and to a Sugar Bowl berth (lost 26-14 to Georgia. However, the Bears were 11-3 on the season and Brewer entered 2020 having thrown for over 3,000 yards the previous two seasons, with 40 TD passes and 16 INTs. He's completing 62.0% this season but for just 1,278 yards with a modest 11 TDs and six INTs. Baylor doesn't have a RB with even 200 yards rushing, as the Bears are averaging 107.8 YPG on the ground.

At first blush one could say "under" but the K-state defense is allowing 27.6 PPG and Baylor D is allowing 27.2 PPG. Baylor has been in every game, beginning with a double-overtime loss at West Virginia and most recently in a one-point loss at Texas Tech on Nov. 14. FOUR of its five losses have been on the road, so some home cookin' just might help. As for Kansas St, how can't the Wildcats bounce-back after that 'ugly' 45-0 loss at Iowa St? This over/under number is in the mid-40s, VERY low by 2020 standards. I expect the winner to be in the 30s and the loser may join them. Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Kansas St at 7:00 ET.

Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but then beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. The win over the Sooners jump started a four-game winning streak but the Wildcats enter this game having lost THREE in a row, including last Saturday's 45-0 embarrassment at Iowa St.

The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field Sep 26 with a 47-14 home win over Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in that win over Kansas. However, Baylor has lost FIVE straight games! Both teams 'limp' into this contest in Waco.

K-State hasn't won since a 55-14 defeat of Kansas helped the Wildcats reach No. 16 in the AP poll but their third straight loss, that 45-0 whitewashing at Iowa State (worst loss in five seasons) has them just 4-4. "Hopefully they're a little ticked off," head coach Chris Klieman said Monday when asked about his players' attitudes. "In the same respect, our leaders are tremendous leaders. We had a good week of practice last week after a tough loss to Oklahoma State. I can promise you that we'll have a good week of practice this week after a tough loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats have had little consistency on offense, with true freshmen, QB Will Howard and RB Deuce Vaughn, showing promise at times but they've also been very unimpressive in other games. Howard was pulled last week after going 3 of 9 for 32 yards with one INT and is completing just 52.8% on the season with more INTs (six) than TD passes (five). Vaughn is the team's leading rusher (just 415 yards) for a team averaging only 124.6 YPG on the ground.

Baylor's QB Brewer led the Bears into the Big 12 championship game last season (lost 30-23 in OT to Oklahoma) and to a Sugar Bowl berth (lost 26-14 to Georgia. However, the Bears were 11-3 on the season and Brewer entered 2020 having thrown for over 3,000 yards the previous two seasons, with 40 TD passes and 16 INTs. He's completing 62.0% this season but for just 1,278 yards with a modest 11 TDs and six INTs. Baylor doesn't have a RB with even 200 yards rushing, as the Bears are averaging 107.8 YPG on the ground.

Baylor has been in every game, beginning with a double-overtime loss at West Virginia and most recently in a one-point loss at Texas Tech on Nov. 14. FOUR of its five losses have been on the road, so some home cookin' just might help. That said, how can't Kansas St bounce-back after that 'ugly' 45-0 loss at Iowa St? Chris Klieman is a winner (see above) and the Wildcats are 15-6, 71% ATS as a road dog the last four-plus seasons. Also, don't forget that Baylor's LONE win in 2020 is over Kansas, which is 0-7 SU and ATS in 2020 and 6-89 SU in Big 12 play since 2010! Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year is on Colorado at 5:00 ET.

The Pac 12 quickly followed the Big Ten by deciding to postpone fall football but just like the Big Ten, the Pac 12 reversed field. While the Big Ten resumed in late October, the Pac 12 didn't get started until early November, leaving even less room if COVID-19 interfered. COVID-19 HAS interfered and this game between Colorado and San Diego St is one of the few instances in which a team has been able to reschedule another game on short notice. Colorado will play at home in Boulder against San Diego State in a non-conference football matchup on Saturday, taking the place of the previously scheduled Colorado at USC football game that was declared a no contest earlier in the week.

Brady Hoke was SDSU's head coach back in 2009 and 2010, going 9-4 with a bowl win in 2010 that got him the job at Michigan. Year One went well, as the Wolverines went 11-2 including a Sugar Bowl win. However, Michigan slipped to 8-5 and 7-6 the next two seasons, ending each with a bowl loss. After a 5-7 record in his fourth season, he was fired. He's back as SDSU's head coach this season (made a two-game stop as interim head coach for the Vols when Butch Jones was fired at Tennessee, and he was named head coach in January of 2020 after Rocky Long announced his retirement from coaching. Hoke took over a team that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five seasons but this year's Aztecs are just 3-2. SDSU owns a strong running game (246.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC) but QB Baker (57.9% for 591 yards with three TDs and three INTs) is mediocre at best (I'm being kind). As DC at SD State, Hoke helped build an excellent defense and this year's unit is allowing just 15.4 PPG (8th) on 270.0 YPG (3rd). However, I have more to say about that, in my 'closing argument!'

Karl Dorrell is Colorado's head coach and in his first year at the school. He was head coach at UCLA from 2003 to 2007 and led the Bruins to FIVE bowl appearances in five seasons, although he did not coach in the fifth after he was fired in December 2007. Truth is, his overall record at UCLA was only 35–27. Dorrell was named the 27th full time head coach at Colorado when Mel Tuckers bolted after one season for Michigan St. Tucker took over from Mike MacIntyre, so Dorrell is Colorado's THIRD head coach in as many seasons. The Buffs have played just TWO games but have beaten UCLA 48-42 as a home dog and Stanford 35-32 as a road dog. QB Noyer is completing 63.6% for 512 yards with three TDs and one INT plus has run for 100 yards with three TDs. RB Broussard has 308 yards on 5.3 YPC with three TDs, as the Buffs run for 220.5 YPG with eight TDs. The defense has allowed 37.0 PPG but the SD St offense leaves MUCH to be desired!

Let's look closer at SD State, which has lost 28-17 at home to San Jose St (now 4-0) as a 10-point favorite and 26-21 at Nevada (now 5-0) as a 1 1/2-point favorite. The Aztecs' wins have come over 0-4 UNLV, 1-4 Utah St (won its first game on Thanksgiving) and 2-3 Hawaii. This game was put together quickly and both teams will have VERY little prep time but San Diego St is playing on the road for the FOURTH time in five weeks, Colorado takes the field for the first time since Nov 14. It's a PERFECT STORM for the Buffs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Boston College at 4:00 ET.

Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but Louisville then lost FOUR in a row. The Cardinals are 2-2 in their last four games but the wins have come over 2-6 Florida St and 1-8 Syracuse

Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country. He was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 5-4 (4-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and takes the field at home vs Louisville for the first time since a 45-31 loss to No. 2 Notre Dame on Nov 14.

Louisville QB Cunningham has completed 63.7% for 2,126 yards with 16 TDs and 11 INTS plus has run for 438 yards with six TDs. RB Hawkins has had a solid season (822 yards on 6.2 YPC with seven TDs) but WR Atwal, after catching 70 balls for 18.2 YPC with 12 TDs last season, has only 41 catches for 13.3 YPC with six TDs. BC's Joe Jurkovec has done a nice job at QB, throwing for 2,355 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. He's done that despite the BC running game averaging only 104.2 YPG on 3.8 YPC.

I believe with Boston College that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Eagles did a good job 'hanging around' vs Notre Dame (lost by 14 getting 13 1/2-points) and of course, led then No. 1 Clemson in "Death Valley" 26-13 at the half before losing 34-28. Boston College opened 2-0 but has since alternated wins and losses. With a off week between the team's loss to ND and this one, Boston College is DUE to win here and at this "bargain of a price," a "W" means a cover. Satterfield's second season at Louisville has been a HUGE disappointment and NOTHING changes here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Stanford at 4:30 ET.

It's simply called the "Big Game." Cal and Stanford first met in 1892 and Stanford leads the all-time series 59-44-10. However, this year's version of the "Big Game" will be played on a Friday for the first time in its history. In another first, both schools enter winless, although that's clearly due to the fact that each school has played just TWO games.

David Shaw was named Stanford's head coach in January of 2011, being promoted after Jim Harbaugh left to become head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers. From 2011 through 2018, Shaw led the Cardinal to EIGHT consecutive bowl games, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons. However, Stanford fell to 4-8 in 2019.  Justin Wilcox was named Cal's head coach in January of 2017 and the Bears finished just 5-7 in his first season. However, the Bears went 7–6 during Wilcox's second year in 2018, upsetting No. 15 Washington and defeating USC 15–14 at the Coliseum in Los Angeles to snap a 14-year losing streak to the Trojans. The Bears lost 10–7 in overtime to TCU in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl. The Bears improved to 8–5 record in 2019, achieving their highest ranking since 2009 when they were ranked No. 15 after a 4–0 start to the season.. Maybe the biggest win of Wilcox's short tenure came when Cal beat Stanford 24-20 in the Big Game last November, for the first time since 2009!

Both teams have dealt with cancellations because of the coronavirus, the Cardinal losing out on playing last week's scheduled home game with Washington State while the Golden Bears had their home opener against Washington canceled on Nov 7. Stanford QB Davis Mills had to sit out the opener at Oregon because of a testing mistake but returned to complete 31 of 56 for 327 yards with one TD and not a single INT in his 56 attempts in a 35-32 home loss to Colorado on Nov 14. RBs Peat (114 yards on 10.4 YPC) and Jones (109 yards on 3.8 YPC but with three TDs) give the Stanford offense some balance, with the Cardinal averaging 405.YPG after two contests. However, the defense is a concern, allowing 35. points in each of the team's two games, so far.

Cal QB Garbers played well last season (1,712 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs) but has thrown for a modest 433 yards in two games with as many INTs (three) as TDs (three). Cal's offense has NO balance, averaging a woeful 89.0 YPG on the ground on 2.7 YPC. Cal's averaging just 18.5 PPG on 303.5 YPG plus the Golden Bears D has been no better than Stanford's, allowing 32.5 PPG.

Cal took home the coveted "Axe" trophy last season for the first time in a decade but the Cardinal are 8-1 in the Big Game under 10th-year head coach David Shaw. Stanford senior offensive lineman Foster Sarell still feels the sting of last year's defeat. "The standard that's been set here, we just beat Cal," he said. "So losing to them it hurt me pretty good. ... We've got to reverse this deal." Both teams are vulnerable of the defensive side of the ball but Stanford is a MUCH better offensive team plus has not thrown a single interception in 82 pass attempts, while allowing just ONE sack plus has also lost just ONE fumble. "Revenge" from last season works perfectly in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET.

8-0 Notre Dame owns the nation's longest winning streak at 14 in a row and comes off a bye week ranked No. 2 in both the current AP poll and the 1st CFP standings of the 2020 season. The Fighting Irish control their own destiny but as head coach Chip Kelly said, "There's a lot of work left for this football team." With three games remaining, Notre Dame (7-0 in the ACC) still has work to do to qualify for the ACC championship game. Clemson and Miami, both with one loss, are in the mix, while No. 25 North Carolina (6-2 all in the ACC) can stay in contention by defeating the Irish.

Notre Dame QB Ian Book has silenced any critics this season by completing 62.0% for 1,818 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He's added 364 yards on the ground (4.9 YPC) and six TDs. He'll take the field at Chapel Hill with a 28-3 record as Notre Dame's starting QB. RB Williams has 777 yards rushing on 5.7 YPC for a running game that averages 233.5 YPG. Notre Dame is averaging 462.1 YPG and 37.6 PPG (12th), which works well with a defense allowing just 16.6 PPG (11th).

However, Notre Dame's 462.1 YPG is about 100 YPG less than North Carolina's average of 563.4 YPG. The Tar Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG (10th) led by QB Howell, who completes 67.7% for 2,631 yards with 23 TDs and just six INTs. North Carolina averages 233.5 YPG on the ground (exact match of ND), led by the terrific RB duo of Williams (868 yards on 7.2 YPC with 15 TDs) and Carter (807 yards on 7.0 YPC with four TDs). The problem all season for Mack Brown's team is a defense allowing 30.8 PPG, two TDs more than Notre Dame's 'stop unit!'

Both teams last played on Nov 14, with Notre Dame following its 47-40 (2-OT) win over then-No. 1 Clemson by winning 45-31 at Boston College. That same day, North Carolina wiped out a 21-point second-half deficit to overcome visiting Wake Forest 59-53, as Howell passed for a school-record 550 yards. However, North Carolina's D allowed 606 yards in yielding those 53 points. However, I believe North Carolina can and WILL trade points with Notre Dame, as we saw Clemson backup Uiagalelei do just that by throwing for 439 yards without an INT in 44 attempts, AT South Bend no less! This marks North Carolina's final ACC regular season home game and I believe Notre Dame's perfect season ends right here! Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win, just like I called last weekend with Northwestern over Wisconsin. Home dog barks loudly once again!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas at 12:00 ET.

No. 15 Iowa State is 6-2 overall, including 6-1 in Big 12 play to sit atop the conference (Cyclones are 6-1 for the first time in program history). Iowa St heads to Austin on the heels of its impressive 45-0 win at home over Kansas State, while No. 20 Texas is 5-2 (4-2 in Big 12 play) is riding a three-game winning streak but hasn't played since Nov 7, as the Longhorns' Nov 21 game at Kansas was postponed to Dec 12 because of positive COVID-19 tests within the Jayhawks' program. I win by Iowa St all but assures the Cyclones a spot in the Big 12 championship game but note that if Texas wins its final three games against Iowa State, Dec 5 at Kansas State and the rescheduled game at Kansas, the Longhorns WILL clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game. Fair to say there is a lot on the line in this "high noon" showdown!

Iowa St's Brock Purdy threw for 3,982 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs last season but hasn't come close to matching those numbers in 2020 (1,713 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs). However, Iowa State boasts the NCAA's leading rusher in Breece Hall (1,169 / 6.5 YPC / 15 TDs), who has rushed for more than 100 yards in ALL eight games, a stat that's also No. 1 nationally. The Cyclones are averaging 34.4 PPG (31st() and allowing 23.4 PPG (30th) a pretty sweet 'daily double.'

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has completed 147-of-250 passes (58.8 percent) for 1,834 yards and 22 TDs with just five INTs. He is also the team leader with 323 rushing yards and seven TDs. His 178 points responsible for are the second-most in the nation this season. Three RBs have combined for 765 yards, as Texas averages a respectable 167.3 YPG on the ground, averaging 4.5 YPC. The Texas offense is producing 40.4 PPG (15th) but its defense allows 29.7 PPG (67th).

Here's the bottom line. Iowa State hasn't won in Austin since 2010 and has beaten Texas just THREE times in 17 all-time games. Iowa State hasn't won a conference title since 1912 (does the Missouri Valley championship really count?) and has NEVER played in a conference championship game. Playing Iowa St when it has to WIN to cover here in Austin, makes NO sense. "The Eyes of Texas are upon me!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC 'Least' Battle 4 First is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:30 ET.

Dallas plays its annual Thanksgiving Day game in 2020 against Washington and while both teams come in a poor 3-7 on the season, the winner will own first place in the cynically-named "NFC Least!" That is until Monday, when the 3-6-1 Eagles will have a chance to regain the division lead if they can upset the Seahawks. Both Teams will take the field with their Opening Day starter at QB on the sidelines.

Washington opened the season with Dwayne Haskins at QB, before he lost his job to Kyle Allen. Then Allen was replaced in a Week 9 game against the Giants by Alex Smith, who was the team's former starter before a brutal leg injury almost ended his career and even his life! Smith is without a doubt one of NFL 2020's great "feel-good" stories. Smith passed for 325 yards in relief of Allen in that 23-20 loss vs the Giants but threw THREE interceptions. He then passed for 390 yards in a 30-27 loss to the Lions the following week but just FOUR days after the second anniversary of an injury that threatened his life (this past Sunday), Smith led Washington to a 20-9 win over Cincinnati. Smith threw for just 166 yards vs the Bengals (zero TDs and zero INTs) but the "W" had to feel VERY good! Washington is averaging just 99.1 YPG on the ground but rookie Antonio Gibson ran for 94 yards last week (note: he had season-high 128 in the team's 25-3 over Dallas in Week 7) and now has 530 yards on the season with eight TDs (he also has 27 catches). WR Terry McLaurin is on pace for close to 100 catches (62 catches / 14.0 YPC / 3 TDs), TE Thomas has 30 catches (3 TDs) and RB McKissic has added 44 receptions. The Washington defense is allowing 315.8 YPG (6th-best) and a modest 22.7 PPG.

Dallas has a 'feel good" story of its own last Sunday, as Andy Dalton had three TD passes, including the game-winner with 1:37 left in the game, as the Cowboys snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-28 win at Minnesota (Vikings entered on a three-game winning streak plus a 6-1 ATS run). It was Dalton's first game since Oct 25, when Washington linebacker Jon Bostic knocked him out of a 25-3 loss in the third quarter with a late hit to the helmet as Dalton slid to end a scramble. A battle with COVID-19 kept Dalton on the sidelines as Dallas continued to cycle through third and fourth-string quarterbacks with little success. The Cowboys offense that shriveled up and died when Dak Prescott ended his season with a frightening leg injury in Week 5. Prescott had averaged over 400 YPG passing through four weeks, with nine TDs and three INTs. However, Dallas finally displayed a balanced offense, as Elliott (675 yards on 3.9 YPC with 5 TDs) ran for more than 100 yards (103) for the first time all season with Dallas running for 180 yards, while passing for 196. More importantly, the team's four TDs touchdowns were TWICE as many as the Cowboys had produced during their four-game skid. Dalton has plenty of targets, with WRs like Cooper (65 catches / 2 TDs), Rookie Lamb (48 catches / 4 TDs) and Gallup (31 catches / team-high 16.0 YPC) plus TE Schultz (39 catches / 3 TDs).

Dallas MUST play better defense, as the Cowboys are allowing an NFL-high 31.8 PPG but Washington enters on a six-game road losing streak (0-4 in 2020) and is just 2-10 on the road since the start of 2019. Let me add that Washington has won just ONE of its last eight Thanksgiving games with Dallas and for all its recent woes, the Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 NFC East contests. Dallas gets some revenge from that Week 7 loss in Washington and moves to 4-7, before serving as Seattle 'cheerleaders' Monday night in Philly.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:15 ET.

The 6-3 Los Angeles Rams need a win to keep pace with the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West and the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs need a win to stay just a half-game back of the 8-2 Saints in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has a lot of prime-time exposure with the addition of TB-12 but tonight's game "main attraction" could be two of the NFL's best defenses. Led by  two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (nine sacks), Los Angeles ranks second in both scoring defense (18.7 PPG) and total defense (296.4 YPG), while also ranking third in passing defense (199.7 YPG) and fifth in rushing defense (96.8 YPG). Tampa Bay's "stop unit" ain't bad themselves, ranking first in rushing defense (76.6 YPG) and third in total defense (300.3 YPG). Tampa Bay is eighth in scoring defense (22.6 PPG) and ninth in passing defense (223.7 YPG).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing fir 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,300 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 13-6 (QB rating of 94.9). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 134.2 YPG (4.3 YPC) this season. Henderson (486 yards on 4.8 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (347 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp (53 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (42 catches / 4 TDs) are quality WRs and the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 45 catches and four TDs.

Brady has completed 66.0% for 2,739 yards with 23 TDs and seven INTs and RB Jones has 730 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC on 5.1 YPC with five TDs, after running for a career-high 192 yards last Sunday. Brady has plenty of targets, in WRs Evans (40 catches / 8 TDs) and Miller (27 catches / 2 TDs) and TE Gronk (29 catches / 4 TDs), who has 17 catches and all four TDs in his last five games. Then there has been the addition of the controversial Antonio Brown (10 catches in two games), who when "not in trouble," caught 100-plus passes for six consecutive seasons for Pittsburgh (2013-18) with 67 TD receptions!

Both teams are hoping to win their respective divisions but the winner of this game also takes a step toward a wild card spot. The Bucs entered the week trailing the Saints by a half game in the NFC South but realistically it’s a game and a half because New Orleans owns the first head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0 this season vs Tampa). Speaking of those two games with the Saints, Brady has thrown FIVE of his seven INTs on the season in them, while his TD/INT ratio in Tampa Bay's other eight games is 21-2, with the Bucs going 7-1. Yes, the Bucs were embarrassed by the Saints at home but they are 3-0 in their other three home games, averaging 35.7 PPG. The Bucs already have matched their win total from 2019, but that was never the goal. You don’t sign a 43-year-old Brady, trade for tight end Rob Gronkowski and add receiver Antonio Brown, and running backs Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy as free agents unless it’s Super Bowl or bust. Lay the points with Tampa Bay.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

SNF features a classic AFL rivalry, the Chiefs and Raiders. The defending champs are 8-1 and are coming off a bye to visit Las Vegas, where they will take on the 6-3 Raiders. The Raiders shocked the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City back in Week 5, as 11-point underdogs. The Raiders got crushed 45-20 at home by the Bucs in their next game but enter this contest on a 3-0 SU & ATS run. Mahomes is completing 66.9% for 2,687 yards with 25 TDs and just one INT (115.9 QB rating) but Carr is not far behind, completing 69.3% for 2,56 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (107.4 QB rating).

However, hanging over the game is COVID-19 issues. This paragraph is copied directly from a game preview to give the info its proper respect. The Raiders had their Oct 25 prime time game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shifted to the afternoon when offensive tackle Trent Brown came down with the virus and the entire starting offensive line was forced into quarantine until the morning of the game because of their high-risk contact with Brown. Tampa Bay cruised to a 45-20 victory. Following a positive test by starting defensive end Clelin Ferrell on Tuesday, seven more Raiders defensive players were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday - safety Johnathan Abram, defensive tackles Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins and Kendal Vickers, defensive back Isaiah Johnson, defensive end Arden Key and practice squad defensive end David Irving. They join safety Lamarcus Joyner, previously identified as a close contact of Ferrell, Brown and linebacker Cory Littleton, who was placed on the list last week. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. But the other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. Kansas City has its own COVID-19 issues with both starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, as well as backup Martinas Rankin going on the COVID list earlier this week after being in close contact with someone who tested positive. All could play Sunday, barring a positive test result.

As noted above, Mahomes is having a superb season. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire 'exploded' on the scene in Week 1 with 138 yards but he's had just one 100-yard game since. He has 586 yards on 4.7 YPC with two TDs on the season. The KC offense revolves around Mahomes and his spectacular group of receivers. Kelce is the best TE in the game and leads with 58 catches and six TDs. WR Hill is a game-changer/game-breaker with 44 catches and nine TDs (one rushing TD, as well). The WR trio of Hardeman, Watkins and Robinson have combined for 67 catches and five TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, KC's improvement helped them win the Super Bowl last season and make them one of the favorites to possibly win again in 2020. KC allowed 405.5 YPG (second-worst in the NFL) in 2018, while allowing 26.3 PPG. However, KC allowed just 19.3 PPG in 2019 and here in 2020, is allowing 20.3 PPG.

Carr's having a career-season and second-year RB Josh Jacobs has proven his rookie season was no fluke (1,150 yards on 4.8 YPC with 7 TDs in 13 games). Jacobs may be averaging a modest 3.8 YPC but he's run for 700 yards with eight TDs plus has 23 catches (just 20 all of last season). TE Waller may not be Kelce (just yet, anyway) but he has 53 catches and four TDs. WR Renfrow has 29 catches but the team's "big play" receiver is Agholor who has made his 18 catches count, averaging 19.7 YPC with five TDs.

Here's the rub. Gruden's defense has allowed 26.8 PPG on the season. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. The other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. However, those players will be limited to virtual practices and meetings until then and won't be allowed on the practice field together. Not exactly the best way to get your defense prepared for reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC has a HUGE "revenge motive" from the Raiders' 40-32 in their first meeting on back on Oct 11, the team's LONE loss in its last 18 games (including the postseason) in 18 games (17-1) plus then there is ONE more important stat. KC head coach Andy Reid is 18-3 SU in regular-season games after a bye during his 22 seasons as a head coach! Also, despite the Raiders' win at KC earlier this season, they've won just TWO of their last 11 against the Chiefs since 2015. One closing thought. Yes, KC has a 'number' to cover but the well-rested Chiefs check in on a 23-8 ATS run as an away favorite. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Green Bay Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Packers opened the season 4-0 SU & ATS and while it hasn't been a smooth ride, Green Bay 7-2 is tied with New Orleans for the NFC' best record (note: San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans were all 13-3 last season, with the 49ers and Packers getting the No. 1 and No, 2 seeds, respectively due to tiebreakers). QB Aaron Rodgers has helped steer the Packers, despite various injuries to some of the team's most reliable playmakers. The Colts made a big 'splash' in the offseason by singing Philip Rivers as a free agent but the key to Indy's 6-3 record (tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South) has been a defense that ranks first in total yards (290.4 per game) and 4th in scoring (19.7 PPG). These two first place clubs square off Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Rodgers is again at "the top of his game," completing 67.8% for 2,578 yards for 2,578 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs (116.4 QB rating). RB Jones has dealt with injuries (he's missed two games) but he has 493 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC with five TDs, while catching 28 passes with two more TDs. WR Davante Adams missed practice Wednesday after tweaking a previously balky ankle in a Week 10 home win against Jacksonville, but indications are he will play against the Colts. In his seven games he's caught 61 balls with nine TDs on the season, after 38 catches with seven TDs in his last four games. Fellow WR Valdez-Scantling has a modest 22 catches (he hasn't missed a game) but he's averaging 21.0 YPC with four TDs. TE Tonyan has 27 catches and five TDs. Green Bay is averaging 30.8 PPG, with only Seattle and KC (each at 31.8 PPG) scoring more. The defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Rivers has provided a steady hand at QB but while he's completing 68.7% for 2,395 yards but his TD/INT ratio is a modest 11-7. Big things were expected from Wisconsin rookie Jonathan Taylor but he's got a modest 428 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC with four TDs. The Indy running game is averaging only 105.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Fellow RB Hines has just 177 yards on the ground but leads the team with 33 catches and with four TD receptions. WR Hilton has been banged up on-and-off this season and  checks in with just 26 catches and not a single TD catch. WR Pascal has 28 catches (2 TDs) and TE Alie-Cox adds 20 catches and two TDs. As noted above, the Colts are where they are because of their D (see above for a reminder).

The Colts have beaten Green Bay's fellow NFC North 'partners' (Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota) but Green Bay is a 'horse of a different color!' The Packers are off an uninspiring 24-20 over hapless Jacksonville but that so-so effort should have them VERY focused on this game. Green Bay can 'sniff' the NFC's No. 1 seed, as after the Colts, Green Bay faces just ONE team with a current winning record (Titans in Week 16) over its final six games. As for the Colts, they come off a HUGE win at Tennessee in Week 10, moving them into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans. Indy's defense gets a real test against Rodgers and Co plus just could be peeking ahead to next week's home game with the Titans. I view this as the perfect situation for a Green By win. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. That playoff run saw them win at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game. However, most thought of Tannehill as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. That's changed in 2020, as Tannehill has completed 64.8% for 2,128 yards with 20 TDs and three INTs (106.9 QB rating). Henry is having another strong season, running for 946 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs. That's all well and fine but after opening 5-0, the Titans have lost THREE of their last four. While Tannehill's numbers on the season remain very good, he's barely completed 50% of his passes (25 of 48) for an average of just 152.5 YPG in the team's last two games. He had completed 67.4% of his passes in his first seven games, averaging 244.0 YPG through the air. The Tennessee defense is also allowing almost SIX points per game more than last season, 26.1-to-20.7.

The Ravens opened the season 5-1, with their lone loss coming to the defending champion Chiefs. However, Baltimore has has lost TWO of its last three, falling at home to Pittsburgh 28-24 in Week 8 and 23-17 at New England in Week 10. Jackson is playing well, completing 64.0% for 1,762 yards with 14 TDs and five INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 524 yards on 5.8 YPC with three TDs. The running game is averaging a healthy 164.0 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 230 yards so far this season, as Edwards (370 yards) and Dobbins (310 yards) join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown has 32 catches, while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 53 catches. TE Andrews has a team-highs in catches (33) and TD receptions (six). The Baltimore D is allowing  18.3 PPG (17.6 LY) on 323.0 YPG (330.6 LY).

The Ravens HAVE to win this one and the extra bonus of "playoff revenge" makes me like the play even more. Let me review that playoff game from last year. Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-to-300 in yards and 29-15 in FDs. Jackson passed for 365 yards and ran for 143 but coughed up THREE turnovers and was 0 of 4 on fourth down attempts. If the Ravens can't win here, their season is effectively over.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insiders is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The New Orleans Saints have won SIX in a row and at 7-2, lead the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South by just a half-game. However, they own the important tiebreaker, having beaten the Bucs in BOTH regular meetings, including a 38-3 beatdown at Tampa in Week 9. It's 'lucky' Week 11 but the Saints will be without QB Drew Brees for an indefinite period of time due to rib and lung injuries. Visiting New Orleans on Sunday will be the 3-6 Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off a bye week and have turned things around after a 0-5 start with a 3-1 record under interim head coach Raheem Morris. This contest marks the first of two matchups between the Falcons and Saints in a three-week span, as the Saints will visit Atlanta for a Week 13 game.

When Atlanta lost 23-16 at home to Carolina to fall to 0-5, head coach Dan Quinn was fired (should have been gone right after that INCREDIBLE Super Bowl collapse). The Falcons named Raheem Morris as interim head coach and the Falcons are 3-1 but with ANY luck, would be 4-0 (lost to Detroit on the game's final play). Matt Ryan will be close to 5,000 passing yards once again, as he's completing 67.2% for 2,746yards with 15 TDs and five INTs. Third-year WR Ridley is having an excellent season (43 catches / 15.3 YPC / 6 TDs) but he was limited in practice Wednesday because of a foot injury. The good news is that superstar WR Julio Jones is rejuvenated (and healthy), catching 28 balls for an average of 106.2 YPG over the last four games  The signing of RB Todd Gurley has NOT improved the running game as much as expected. He does have 584 yards but has averaged just 3.7 YPC. Still, his nine TDs through nine games "ain't bad!" The Atlanta defense has been a problem all season and can't be counted on, allowing 27.9 PPG on 410.0 YPG.

Many will remember that the Saints went 5-0 with Teddy Bridgewater at QB in 2019 while Brees recovered from thumb surgery. Former Tampa Bay starter Jameis Winston is expected to replace Brees, although Taysom Hill could also take some snaps from center in addition to his usual reps at a variety of skill positions. Winston completed 6 of 10 passes for 63 yards after Brees went down last Sunday, while Hill rushed eight times for 45 yards (he did lose a fumble). Whichever QB is in the game, "Job One" is to get the ball to RB Alvin Kamara, who is second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage. Kamara has 486 yards rushing (4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and is tied for second in the NFL with 67 receptions (Diggs leads with 73 but has played one more game) plus has four TD receptions. Brees' injury last Sunday was the "bad news" but the "good news" was that WR Michael Thomas (149 catches last season, an NFL record) played  for the second straight week. Let's NOT forget the New Orleans defense, which is allowing 308.2 YPG (more than 100 YPG less than Atlanta's), to rank 4th in the league.

Of course, I'd prefer a healthy Brees but I'm NOT sure I'd play the Saints laying more than a TD (the likely line with Brees at QB). Winston has NEVER been a favorite of mine but he's no backup. He started 70 games the last five seasons with the Bucs and I'm convinced Payton will be able to use Hill's talents in a complementary role. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My "Featured" 10* Sunday Total is on Cin/Was Over at 1:00 ET.

The top two picks in the 2020 NFL Draft will face off for the first time Sunday when QB Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Washington Football Team and defensive end Chase Young in Landover, Md. Burrow has earned praise from across the league for his poise, accuracy and the speed with which he's adapted to the pro game, while Young has NOT had a big impact with 21 tackles and 3.5 sacks in eight games, all starts. Cincinnati checks in at 2-6-1 and has yet to win on the road (0-4-1) in 2020, while Washington is 2-7 but actually remains in contention in the NFC Least,' where the 3-5-1 Eagles are in first place and the 3-7 Giants are second place. 

The Cincy OL has hampered both Burrow (he's been sacked 32 times) and the team's running game (105.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but Burrow has completed 65.4% for 2,485 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs. Mixon is the team's best RB (428 yards on just 3.6 YPC) but he remains out (last played Oct 18) and Beranrd's value is as a receiver (28 catches with two TDs). WRs Boyd (60 catches / 3 TDs) and Higgins (40 catches / 4 TDs) have both been solid but A.J. Green continues to underperform (31 catches on the season), with just TWO receptions for 19 yards in the last two games. Burrow will look (NEED) to bounce back, after Cincy's 'ugly' 36-10 road loss at undefeated Pittsburgh last week. He passed for just 213 yards and the Bengals were 0-for-13 on third down.!

In stark contrast, while Washington lost 30-27 at Detroit in Week 10, QB Alex Smiths continued one of the season's better 'feel good' stories. It's taken nearly two years for him to return to the starting lineup but took him only two games to inject himself into the conversation over whether he can be Washington's future quarterback. He's thrown for a combined 715 yards in Washington's last two losses, nearly leading comebacks from large deficits each time. Smith has returned to a place few thought he would reach again. In Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Detroit Lions, Smith's first start since breaking the fibula and tibia in his right leg on Nov 18, 2018, he completed a career-high 38 passes for 390 yards. Washington tied the game after trailing by 21 points in the second half only to lose on a last-second field goal. Washington's running game (91.9 YPG on 3.8 YPC) is even worse than Cincy's, although Gibson did have two rushing TDs against Detroit, giving him seven on the season (436 yards on 4.2 YPC). Fellow RB McKissic is used more as a receiver, as he has 41 catches. WR McLaurin (57 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) is Washington's best receiver, although TE Thomas (28 / 3 TDs) has been effective at times.

The Bengals are just 2-6-1 but they own a 6-3 ATS record. They have been non-competitive at Baltimore and Pittsburgh but 2-4-1 (6-1 ATS) in their other seven games. NONE of those four losses have come by more than FIVE points and there was that tie at Philly. Washington still has some motivation, as a win here and at Dallas on Thanksgiving, would move them to 4-7. The Eagles are at 6-3 Cleveland this week and they play Seattle (7-3), Green Bay (7-2) and New Orleans (7-3) their next three! Neither Burrow nor Smith can rely on any help from their respective running games, so expect both to have big games. Expect Burrow to bounce-back from his POOR effort at Pittsburgh and Smith faces a Cincy D which allows 30.4 PPG on the road. Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Game of the Month is on NC State at 7:30 ET.

The Liberty football program was competing in Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) but announced it would start a transition to the top level of NCAA football in July 2017. The Flames became a provisional FBS member in 2018, and became a full FBS member with bowl eligibility in 2019. Hugh Freeze 'exploded' on the scene when he led Arkansas St to a 10-2 record in his first season as a head coach back in 2011. He quickly 'jumped ship' to Ole Miss and led the Rebels to four straight bowl appearances (3-1), including his 2015 team going 10-3 after a Sugar Bowl win (Rebels finished 10th in the final AP poll. However, trouble was brewing in Oxford over recruiting and academic violations committed under both Freeze and his predecessor, Houston Nutt. After a 5-7 season in 2016, he was let go. He was named head coach of the Liberty Flames football team on December 7, 2018 and in his first season Liberty went 8-5, including a 23-26 Cure Bowl win over Ga Southern. This year's team is 8-0 and entered the AP top-25 for the first time in school history back on Nov 1. The Flames will visit NC State on Saturday, ranked No. 21 in the latest poll.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense in 2020, so it was expected that NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC State's offense has improved (up to 33.5 PPG) but its defense allows 33.9 PPG. The Wolfpack welcome the Flames to Carter-Finley Stadium with a 5-3 record.

Liberty is led by dual-threat QB Malik Willis who has completed 67.8% for 1,645 yards with 15 TDs and just ONE interception. He is also the team's leading rusher with 700 yards on 7.1 YPC with nine TDs. Three RBs chip in between 370 and 534 yards, giving the Flames a running game averaging 254.5 YPB on 5.7 YPC. Four WRs have between 15 and 10 receptions, while 10 different players have caught TD passes. Liberty's defense is allowing 22.1 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 40.5 PPG (Flames are 6-2 ATS).

Devin Leary was the returning QB for NC State but had COVID issues early on and then a broken leg ended his season. Bailey Hockman (started early in the season for Leary) has again taken over and in the last two games, a 44-41 loss to Miami-Fl and a 38-22 win over Florida St, he's thrown for 513 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Anytime your quarterback is playing well, I don't care what level of football you're playing, you've got a chance to be really good," head coach Doeren said. "He's played at a high level for two weeks, so we're very excited." Doeren also had to be happy with WR Thayer Thomas' career-high 11 catches and 135 yards with two TDs against FSU. The running game produces about half of what Liberty does (133.8 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and remember that Wolfpack D is allowing 33.9 PPG.

Hugh Freeze said it's important to stay the course, realizing that Liberty might be a targeted team. "Just don't change. Don't change anything," he said. "Remember why you're having the success." That said, SEVEN of Liberty's eight wins have come over two FCS schools, as well as 3-6 Western Ky, 0-4 FIU, 2-8 UL-Monroe, 1-7 Syracuse and 2-6 Southern Miss. The team's "marquee win" has come over 4-4 Va Tech 38-35 in a 'miracle' finish. Tech has been ravaged by COVID-19 problems and was a 17-point favorite in that game. Liberty's perfect season ends right here!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Northwestern at 7:30 ET.

Paul Chyrst was hired at Wisconsin in 2015, after leading Pitt to three straight bowls from 2012-14 but note his overall record was only 19-19. He led the Badgers to FIVE straight bowl games, winning the first four, before losing 28-27 to Oregon in last season's Rose Bowl. His overall record with Wisconsin is 52-16 (.765) entering 2020. Pat Fitzgerald played at Northwestern and was an assistant coach from 2001-05 until his promotion to head coach after the unexpected death of Randy Walker in June 2006. He was just 10-14 in his first two seasons but then led the Wildcats to NINE bowl in the next 12 years, winning 10 games in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Northwestern fell to just 3-9 last season but the Wildcats are off to a 40-0 stat in the Big Ten in 2020, for the first time since 1996.

Wisconsin expected that RB Jonathan Taylor (2,003 rushing yards in 2019) would leave a year early for the NFL but Paul Chryst couldn't have planned for the loss of QB Jack Coan (69.6% / 2,727 yards / 18 TDs and just five INTs in 2019) to a foot injury on Oct 10. However, redshirt freshman Graham Mertz got the start on Oct 23 vs Illinois and completed 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards with five TDs and no INTs in the Badgers 45-7 rout. Then came a COVID-19 outbreak that included both Mertz and head coach Chryst. Wisconsin's next two games were canceled but the Badgers returned to play last Saturday at Michigan and routed the Wolverines 49-11. Mertz was pretty average vs Michigan (12 of 22 for only 127 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) but Wisconsin ran all over Michigan (341 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC) and after two early INTs by the defense set up two quicks TDs, the game was never in doubt.

Northwestern QB Ramsey has been OK but hardly special (65.8% for 723 yards with six TDs and four INTs). The running game averages 174.0 PPG, almost 100 yards less than Wisconsin's 261.5 YPG on 5.0 YPC.  In the first five seasons of the "Chryst era" at Wisconsin, his 'stop units' have allowed 13.7, 15.6, 13.9, 22.6 and 16.9 PPG. It's been just two games in 2020 but Wisconsin is No. 1 in scoring D (9.0 PPG) and No. 1 in total D (218.5 YPG). That said, don't dismiss the Northwestern D, which is allowing 14.0 PPG (7th) on 301.8 YPG (4th).

I'm still not quite sure how good Wisconsin really is because Illinois is an awful team and Harbaugh's Michigan team is a joke! How good is Mertz, really? Northwestern's graduate transfer Peyton Ramsey had his best game for the Wildcats, throwing for three TDs and 212 yards at Purdue and history tells us that the Wildcats have been especially successful against the Badgers at home, winning FIVE of the past six matchups at Ryan Field. This game has earned the title of a de facto Big Ten championship semifinal, with the Wildcats (4-0) and Badgers (2-0) tied for first place in the division and the winner controlling its own destiny to play next month for the conference title at Indianapolis. Can the Wildcats pull the upset? I thinks so but will be SURE to take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Revenge Rout is on UCF at 3:30 ET.

Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and at 7-0 are up to No. 7 as Cincinnati begins a three-game road stretch that will determine the Bearcats' conference, bowl and even potential playoff fate. It starts with Saturday's game in Orlando against unranked but dangerous 5-2 UCF. Josh Heupel was named head coach of the UCF Knights on December 5, 2017, replacing the departing Scott Frost, who had led UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Heupel continued the 'magic' in 2018, as UCF took a 12-0 record (AND a 25-game winning streak) into its Sugar Bowl game with LSU, where the Tigers snapped that win streak with a 40-32 victory (coming out party for Joe Burrow). UF followed with a 10-3 season in 2019 but sits a more modest 5-2 entering this game.

Cincy routed Austin Peay 55-20 to open the season and then had comfortable but routine wins over Army (24-10) and South Florida (28-7) in the second and third games of the season. However, the Bearcats have stepped up the pace by averaging a scoring margin of 46.0-12.5 PPG in wins over SMU, Memphis, Houston and East Carolina. QB Desmond Ridder has posted two triple-digit rushing games in running for 398 yards and nine TDs in that four-game span and completed 71.4 percent of his 105 pass attempts for 886 yards and eight TDs against only two INTs. He's completing 66.7% on the season for 1,483 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs, while ranking second on the team with 469 rushing yards (8.8 YPC and nine TDs). RB has 563 yards on 5.2 YPC with seven TDs, as Cincy averages 247.1 YPG on the ground on 6.5 YPC with 24 TDs. In allowing 12.4 PPG, Cincy ranks third in the nation for fewest points allowed. 

UCF opened 2-0 but then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa and Memphis. UCF led Tulsa 16-0 but lost 34-26 (Tulsa's won FOUR times this season when trailing by 14-plus points!) and let a 49-37 lead in the mid-fourth quarter slip away in a 50-49 loss to Memphis. UCF has rebounded to win THREE in a row, averaging 44.3 PPG. QB Gabriel is completing 63.3% for 2,774 yards with 23 TDs and just two INTs, while RBs Anderson (563 yards on 5.8 YPC and four TDs) and McCrae (532 yards on 5.4 YPC with seven TDs) lead a running game averaging 222.3 YPG. Williams (53 catches / 15.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Robinson (41 catches / 20.0 YPC / 4 TDs) are both dangerous receivers. However, in allowing 28.7 PPG, the UCF defense is allowing more than TWICE as many PPG than Cincy's D.

"It's going to be huge," Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell said. "We're going to find out what we're really made of. ... That is going to be quite a stretch with the bullseye on our back and a lot of things that we want to be able to do. You know we've got to kind of focus in and be hungry and be humble in what we're doing and find a way to continue to grow." This will SURE be a test for the Bearcats, as UCF takes the field with an offense averaging 44.0 PPG on 619.1 YPG (No. 1 in the nation) plus has won 23 of its last 24 home games! What's more, UCF has a score to settle from last season's 27-24 loss at Cincinnati, when the Bearcats broke UCF's 19-game AAC winning streak. Now it's UCF's turn to pull the upset. Book it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET.

Chad Lunsford served as interim coach at Georgia Southern for the second half of the 2017 season following the firing and departure of Tyson Summers. The team finished that season 2-4 but he was awarded the head coaching gig on November 27, 2017. 10-3 and 7-6 seasons followed (including two bowl berths) and here in 2020 his Eagles are 6-2, including 4-2 in the SBC (third in the East behind 5-0 Coastal Carolina and 4-0 Appalachian St). Georgia Southern steps out of conference play on Saturday to visit West Point for a game with Army.

Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season. The 2020seaason has been a nice bounce-back, as Army enters this contest 6-2.

Georgia Southern comes into this contest on a THREE-game winning streak after a 40-38 home win over Texas State last Saturday. QB Shai Werts leads an offense that depends on its running game, which ranks 5th in the nation in averaging 275.8 YPG on the ground while averaging 5.5 YPC. Werts completes a modest 58.9% for 789 yards with five TDs and six INTs. However, he's second on the team with 605 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC with six TDs. Four RBs have 300-plus rushing yards, led by JD King's 625 yards (5.4 YPC) and five TDs. The defense has been strong all season, as despite allowing 38 points to a 1-9 Texas St team in its last game, Georgia Southern is holding its opponents to a modest 21.8 PPG.

Army has SEVEN players with 200-plus rushing yards, led by RB Robinson's 347 yards on 8.1 YPC. RBs Buchanan and Adkins plus QB Anderson all have four rushing TDs, as Army ranks second in the nation with 303.4 YPG on the ground (on 5.3 YPC) with 27 rushing TDs. Army QBs have attempted just 40 passes in EIGHT games. Speaking of defense, Army is allowing its opponents just 15.0 PPG. Army is coming off a bad loss at Tulane (38-12) but in fairness, the Black Knights hadn't played in THREE weeks prior to that contest.

Speaking of recent games, how does one explain away Georgia Southern's two-point win at home over a 1-9 Texas St team? Georgia Southern's lone road win this year came 35-30 at UL-Monroe, which is just 2-8 on the season. By the way, Army routed UL-Monroe at home back on Sep 12, 37-7 (outgained the Warhawks 468-200 in total yards). It's true that Ga Southern QB Werts give the Eagles a more-balanced attack but in the end, this game will be decided by the competing option attacks. The Eagles top runner (JD King) has been lost to an ACL injury and note that the ONLY two times Army has passed more than 10 times in a game, it has lost! One of those losses came at now-No. 7 Cincinnati which is 7-0. The Cadets trailed just 17-10 in that game on the road midway through the fourth quarter and eventually lost just 24-10. Army's schedule in 2020 can be questioned by the Blacks Knights are 5-0 SU at home this season, extending their record at home to 21-2 SU since the start of the 2017 season. Stealing a chant from the Army/Navy rivalry, "Go Army! Beat Georgia Southern!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET.

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. However, so far in 2020, Fleck's long-time motto has 'run aground!' The Gophers opened 0-2 in losing 49-24 to Michigan and Maryland 45-44 on a missed extra-point in OT but rebounded with a 41-14 home win over Illinois.  However, the not-so Golden Gophers followed up their first win of the year with a real clunker in a 35-7 home loss to Iowa last Saturday. Minnesota desperately needs a win here at home on Friday, when 2-1 Purdue visits Minneapolis.

Jeff Brohm had a strong three-year run as Western Kentucky's head coach (2014-16), going 30-10 overall, before accepting the Purdue job. He led the Boilermakers to bowl berths in his first two seasons (2017 and 2018) but Purdue was just 13-13 in those two years. A 4-8 season followed in 2019 and after opening 2-0 in 2020, the Boilermakers lost their showdown with Northwestern last Saturday (both schools entered unbeaten), 27-20 at home.

The Boilermakers are still hoping that standout WR Rondale Moore will return to provide Purdue's offense with a spark. Moore was sensational as a freshman in 2018 (114 catches for 1,258 yards with 21 TDs) and was off to another great start in 2019, when he was lost for the season in Purdue's fourth game. He's missed the first three games due to a lower-body injury. QB Aidan O'Connell (64.7% for 916 yards with 7 TDs and 2 INTs) threw for 263 yards and two TDs against Northwestern, while RB Zander Horvath caught nine passes for 100 yards. However, Horvath (252 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC) was held to just 21 yards, after topping 100 yards in wins over Iowa and Illinois. Purdue's ground game managed just TWO yards on 17 attempts! Without Moore, Bell (86 catches with 7 TDs in 2019) leads with 31 catches and four TDs grabs.

Minnesota's leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,318 yards / 13 TDs) both moved on but QB Tanner Morgan returned, after throwing 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs). However, Morgan is off to a VERY slow start (57.5% / 769 yards / 4 TDs and 4 INTs). There is good news on offense for Minnesota, RB Mohammad Ibrahim has returned to his freshman form (1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs), after being injured for part of last season (he still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs). Ibrahim has run for 140-plus yards in all four games, topping 200 yards, twice. He has 715 yards on the season, averaging 5.5 YPC with 10 TDs. WR Bateman is no Johnson but he does have 32 catches. Minnesota's D returned just four starters and has allowed 43.0 PPG in its three losses.

It's a 180-degree turnaround from last year for Minnesota in 2020, after the Golden Gophers won 11 games in 2019,  winning close games because the team frequently made big plays and didn't make mistakes. That same attention to detail has been missing in 2020. Minnesota plays ranked schools Wisconsin (10) and Northwestern (19) the next two weeks, then ends the season at Nebraska, needing to win THREE of four to finish at .500. Is that a 'bridge too far?' Probably, but beating Purdue here at home is NOT! Minnesota has won SIX of its last seven meetings with Purdue and the last time the Golden Gophers hosted the Boilermakers (2018), they won 41-10, the largest margin of victory in this series since 1985. Home dog 'barks VERY LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West has a three-way tie at the top between the Cards, Rams and Seahawks (all are 6-3).The Cards and Seahawks square off in Seattle and barring a tie, one will move to 7-3. The Rams play Monday night in Tampa against the Bucs, making their path to 7-3 a real test. The Cardinals overcame a 10-point fourth quarter deficit back in Week 7 in a SNF matchup at home, to edge the Seahawks 37-34 on a Zane Gonzalez 48-yard FG with 15 seconds remaining in OT (note: Gonzalez had previously kicked a 44-yarder as time expired in regulation). The loss was Seattle's first of the season (after opening 5-0) and the Seahawks have gone to drop two of their next three games, as well. Arizona's win over Seattle was the team's THIRD in a row and after a bye in Week 8, the Cards have lost a close one (34-31 to Miami) and won a close one (32-30 over Buffalo), all at home. 

I'm sure ALL are aware that Arizona's win over Buffalo belongs in the 'miracle' category and the Cards head to Seattle off THREE straight games (2-1) decided by three, three and two points. QB Kyler Murray is having a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 68.2% for 2,375 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs. He's also the Cards' leading rusher with 604 yards on 6.9 YPC with 10 rushing TDs! Kenyon Drake (612 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) has developed into a dependable RB and the Cards have now edged ahead of the Ravens to own the NFL's top rushing offense at 168.9 YPG (5.3 YPC).  Fitzgerald is heading to the HOF but while he has 35 catches, he's averaging only 7.8 YPC and has yet to snare a TD pass. Hopkins caught the game-winner against the Bills and leads the team with 67 receptions (four TDs). Fellow WR Kirk has a modest 27 catches but leads the team with six TD grabs. Arizona's defense allowed just 18.7 PPG through its first six games but enters this contest having allowed 30-plus points in each of its last three (32.7 per).

Defense has been a season-long problem for Seattle, as it is allowing a league-high 448.3 YPG and almost 30 PPG (29.6). However, led by Russell Wilson's MVP-caliber play (19 TD passes and just three INTs), Seattle got off to a 5-0 start. However, in Seattle's recent 1-3 slide, Wilson had four TDs and zero INTs in Seattle lone win in that span, while passing for only five TDs against seven INTs in the three losses. He didn't throw a TD pass in last week's loss at the Rams (had two INTs), just the second time since the start of the 2019 season in which he went without a TD pass in a game (the other time was also against the Rams, in a 28-12 road loss last season). However, he is completing 69.8% for 2,789 yards with 28 TDs and 10 INTs on the season (110.5 QB rating). Wilson is also the team's leading rusher (325 yards on 7.2 YPC) but the Seahawks have been without their top two RBs, Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring), for the past three games. Carson remains out but Hyde has returned to practice on a limited basis. Wilson has a 'dynamic duo' in WRs Lockett (58 catches with six TDs) and Metcalf (45 catches on 18.1 YPC with eight TDs).

The Cards are on the road for the first time since Week 6 (three home games and a bye week), while this marks Seattle's ONLY home game in a four-week span. What's more, after leading the division since Week 1, Seattle would fall from atop it for the first time this season with a loss. I realize Seattle has RB issues (it has all season) but I'm not sure why Seattle is favored here at home, by pretty much the same as it was in Arizona! A win keeps Seattle atop the NFC West (all by itself if Tampa Bay can beat the Rams) plus Seattle's next four opponents (Philadelphia, the NYG, the NYJ and Washington) have  a combined 8-28-1 record in 2020. CenturyLink Stadium doesn't offer the same kind of home field edge it did in 'normal' times but Seattle is still a perfect 4-0 at home in 2020, averaging 34.3 PPG. That's almost the exact point total the Cards' defense has allowed (see above) in its last three games.  Don't be fooled by Arizona's 3-1 road record in 2020, as its opponents have been San Francisco, Carolina, the NY Jets and Dallas, teams with a combined record of 9-29! Lay the 'cheap' price!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on Tulane at 7:30 ET.

Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marked the first time Tulane had posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. Tulane opened by eking out a 27-24 win at South Alabama but then took a 24-0 lead over Navy at the half, only to lose 27-24. The Green Wave rebounded with a 66-24 rout of Southern Miss but then lost THREE in a row (Houston, SMU and UCF), while allowing 45.7 PPG. With season 'heading south,' Tulane has rebounded with THREE straight wins, scoring exactly 38 points in each contest. 

Tulane now heads to Tulsa on Thursday night to face a 4-1 Tulsa team (4-0 in AAC), which just entered the AP poll this past Sunday at No. 25. Philip Montgomery got his first head coaching gig at Tulsa in 2015. He led the Golden Hurricane to bowls those first two seasons, including to a 1-3 season in 2016. However, THREE straight losing seasons followed (9-27 overall). Tulsa opened the current season with a competitive 16-7 loss at then-No. 11 Oklahoma St. Tulsa has ripped off FOUR straight wins since. Kudos to the Golden Hurricane who fell behind the then-No. 19 Mustangs 21-0 last Saturday, before outscoring them 28-3 the rest of the way. So what else is new? Tulsa trailed 16-2 at UCF on Oct 3 but came back to win 31-26 and on Oct 30 at home, trailed East Carolina 17-3 before winning 34-30. Nothing to it!

The Green Wave's surge has coincided with the maturation of freshman QB Michael Pratt, who has 14 TDs and just four INTs in seven starts (he also has five rushing TDs). He has brought balance to an offense that features an outstanding running game, averaging 224.1 YPG on 5.3 YPC with a whopping 26 TDs. Four RBs contribute, led by Huderson (548 yards on 6.6 YPC) and Carroll (542 yards on 5.6 YPC with 10 TDs). Tulsa's "comeback kids" are led by QB Zach Smith (61.5% with 10 TDs and 6 INTs) and a running game averaging 161.8 YPG on 4.1 YPC with eight TDs. Tulsa's defense has been VERY good, allowing just 21.8 PPG.

This is a tough spot for Tulsa, its win over SMU came after a stretch in which the Golden Hurricane had played just two games in 41 days, as Tulsa has had three weekends in which a game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. This week, the Golden Hurricane return to action just FIVE days after the SMU win and will be playing as a ranked team for the first time since 2010. Tulane comes in on a roll and has beaten Tulsa each of the last three meetings. Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win by Tulane.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Attack-Part 3 is on Central Michigan at 7:00 ET.

Western Michigan's Tim Lester has had BIG shoes to fill, taking over in 2017, after PJ Fleck led the Broncos to a 13-1 season (and a Cotton Bowl bid vs Wisconsin) in 2016. His first team went 6-6 (no bowl) but the Broncos have gone to a bowl each of the last two seasons, although they've lost both, finishing 7-6 each season. Jim McElwain made a name for himself at Colorado St, which got him the head coaching gig at Florida in 2015. The Gators went 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons but he had problems with "powers that be" and was let go after a 3-4 start in 2017. He resurfaced at Central Michigan in 2019, taking over a team that went 1-11 in 2018. Things couldn't have gone much better in his first season, as the Chippewas won the MAC West (6-2) and finished the season 8-6 overall, although they lost the MAC title game 26-21 to Miami-Ohio and their bowl game 48-11 to SD State.

Western Michigan and Central Michigan have both opened 2-0 and meet Wednesday in Mount Pleasant. The winner puts itself in PRIME position to win the MAC West. The MAC is only playing SIX league games, meaning the team which comes out of the game at 3-0 will effectively own a TWO-game lead, considering it will also have the tiebreaker. Kaleb Eleby (redshirted last season) but has played well at QB for WMU, completing 71.1% for 546 yards with six TDs and zero INTs. The running game averages 185.5 YPG on 5.5 YPC, led by Sean Tyler's 168 yards on 8.0 YPC with a TD. He also has 10 catches, which ties WR D’Wayne Eskridge for the team lead. Eskridge is averaging 24.5 YPC with TDs, while fellow WRs Moore ( six catches / 19.7 YPC / one TD) and Hall (three catches / 29.7 YPC / two TDs) have made "big plays." The offense has scored 99 points in its first two games and somehow scored two TDs in the final 45 seconds of WMU's 41-38 win over Toledo last Wednesday (had to see it to believe it!).

CMU quarterback David Moore's status remains uncertain as a result of an NCAA suspension but Daniel Richardson has started the first two games and has been more than adequate (60% for 439 yards / 3 TDs / 1 INT). However, there's potential for even more big plays thanks to a strong receiving corps. Dallas Dixon averages 18.8 YPC over six catches, while Kalil Pimpleton (nine), JaCorey Sullivan (five) and Tyrone Scott (four) rounding out the top contributors. The running game is averaging 210.5 YPC on 4.7 YPC, led by Lewis (171 yards / 3.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Nichols (122 yards / 5.8 YPC / one TD). The defense is the best in the MAC, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG on 294.5 YPG.

Central Michigan was 6-0 SU & ATS at home last season and its win and cover at home over Ohio U in the team's season opener gives them a 7-0 SU & ATS run at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Meanwhile, WMU was 1-6 SU away from home in 2019 (counts bowl loss) and a 58-13 win at Akron on Nov 4 hardly counts (Zips are on a 19-game slide, going 4-15 ATS)! A good defense usually beats a good offense plus remember, CMU is averaging 35.5 PPG, themselves. The fact that the Broncos are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win has me saying, why NOT play the Chippewas?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic play (NFC North Game of the Month) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. A non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable but the Vikings will be hard-pressed to avoid that from happening. The Chicago Bears hired John Fox as head coach in 2015 and he had three straight losing seasons, going 3-13 in 2016 and 5-11 in 2017. That was enough and the Bears hired Mike Nagy on January 7, 2018, Nagy was one of six candidates for the Bears' job and sure seemed like the 'right choice,' as Chicago went 12-4 in his first season. The Bears fell to 8-8 last season but surprised by opening 3-0 and 5-1. However, they enter this contest off THREE straight losses.

The Vikings were manhandled by the Packers in Week 1 and after a 40-23 loss Week 6 to Atlanta, stood 1-5. However, the team's Week 7 bye seems to have rejuvenated the team, as Minnesota won 28-22 at Green Bay in Week 8 and then beat Detroit 34-20 at home in Week 9. QB Kirk Cousins connected on 13 of his 20 pass attempts for 220 yards and 3 TDs in the win over the Lions, while RB Dalvin Cook ran for 206 yards on just 22 carries with two TDs. Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He's has NOT been that good this year, completing 65.6 percent for 1.855 yards. He has 15 TDs but 10 INTs, FOUR more than he had all last season. Dalvin Cook (858 yards on 6.0 YPC with 12 TDs), when healthy, is as good as any RB in the NFL. Cook has run for 369 yards (7.1 YC) for five TDs (plus one TD catch) in Minnesota's back-to-back wins. More on Cousins, Cook and Minnesota's defense in my 'closing argument.'

The Bears have used two QBs this season but with Trubisky sidelined with a shoulder injury, Foles is the current 'man.' He blows hot-and-cold but with RB Montgomery (472 yards) out with a concussion, he's thrown 93 passes the last two games (64 completions / 68.9%) for 607 yards with four TDs and just one INT. Chicago's best receiver, Allen Robinson (57 catches with three TDs) is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Fellow WRs Mooney and Miller have combined for 63 catches and four TDs, while TE Jimmy Graham looks 'young' again, with 35 catches and five TDs (had just 38 catches with Green Bay all of last season).

In closing, let's look defense, first. The Vikings are allowing 29.2 PPG on 417.9 YPG, while Chicago allows 21.1 PPG on 335.1 YPG. Chicago head coach Mike Nagy is a perfect 4-0 SU vs Minnesota in his first two seasons (1st of two meetings this season, tonight) and Kirk Cousins is 0-3 in three meetings with the Bears as a Viking (sat out meaningless Week 17 game in 2019), with Minnesota averaging a WOEFUL 12.0 PPG in those contests. There is no denying how good Cook can be but in Cousins' three losses vs the Bears, Cook has averaged a miniscule 28.7 YPG on the ground. Two last factoids. Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday nights, which is the worst record of any QB in NFL history! If that's not enough, how about the fact that Minnesota is a dismal 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games at Soldier Field? Not sure why there has been so much 'play' on Minnesota but I'm taking the home dog.

Good luck...Larry