My 10* ACC Game of the Month is on Louisville at 8:00 ET.

Louisville (6-7 in 2021) will square off at Syracuse (5-7) Saturday night in the season opener for both teams. Both teams are hoping to break through in the ACC Atlantic Division in 2022. Louisville hasn't done much lately, although the Cardinals did go 9-4 in 2016 and 8-5 in 2017 behind QB Lamar Jackson (Jackson won the Heisman in 2016). That said, Louisville begins this season just 20-29 (.408) the last four seasons. Syracuse is only 29-43 in six seasons under Dino Babers, with just 11 wins in the past three years. Syracuse won just five games last season, but it was a rebound campaign from the forgettable 2020 season (1-10).

The Orange's Sean Tucker, was the top rusher in the ACC last season, setting a school-record with 1,496 rushing yards. However, Syracuse had the ACC's worst passing offense last season. QB Garrett Shrader struggled at times after taking the starting job late in the season. He's back, but the team is thin at QB after former starter Tommy DeVito left and won the starting job at Illinois. The Syracuse defense continues to struggle, having allowed 30 or more points in FIVE of the last seven seasons. Returning to Louisville, the Cardinals are led by dynamic QB Malik Cunningham, the ACC's top rushing QB. Cunningham returns after becoming the second QB in school history to rush for over 1,000 yards. He rushed for 1,031 yards (6.0 YPC / 20 TDs), while passing for 2,941 yards (19 TDs and 6 INTs.

The bottom line is that Louisville has dominated Syracuse by going 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, with an average margin of 31.0 PPG. What changes here? NOTHING!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Coastal Carolina at 7:00 ET.

The Army Black Knights and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers meet Saturday in college football action from Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC. Jeff Monken was named Arm's head coach in 2014. His Army tenure started slow, with a 4-8 2014 season and 2-10 in 2015. However, he's led Army yo 52-27 record the last six years, taking the Black Knights to FIVE bowl seasons (4-1). In 2018, he became the first head coach to lead Army to three consecutive bowl appearances, consecutive 10-win seasons, and its first ever 11-win season. That resulted in a final AP Poll ranking of No. 19[ for Monken's 2018 Black Knights, the highest the Black Knights had finished in the final polls since legendary Army coach Earl 'Red' Blaik's 1958 squad. Jamey Chadwell's CCU team has been one of CFB's best storylines the last two years with Chanticleers going 11-1 in 2020 and 11-2 in 2021.

Army's "not so secret" strength is its option attack. The players/parts change but the results remain steady. The last six seasons, Army has averaged between 273 YPG on the ground, finishing second in the nation in 2021 by averaging 280.6 YPG with 48 TDs. However, Coastal Carolina has gotten extra time to prep for the option and the Chanticleers have experience facing it against Georgia Southern. CCU dominated Ga Southern at home last season, holding the Eagles to EIGHT points in a 28-8 victory. The Chanticleers lost leading rusher Jones (1,040 yards / 13 TDs) but feel that Bennett (636 yards / 8.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and White (515 yards / 7.2 YPC / 7 TDs) will capably fill the void. The great news is that QB Grayson McCall returns, off passing for 2,873 yards with 27 TDs and just THREE interceptions.

Army is a dangerous underdog, but the Black knights aren't getting enough points here. CCU has outscored opponents 37.2 to 20.3 in 2020 and 40.9 to 21.6 the last two seasons and own a 13-1 home record the last two seasons (lone loss by TWO points to Georgia Southern). I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SD State at 3:30 ET.

The Arizona Wildcats open their 2022 season with a visit to San Diego to face the Aztecs, who open their brand new on-campus stadium. Arizona's last winning season was back in 2017 (7-6). The Wildcats fell to 5-7 in 2018 and 4-8 in 2019. Then, Arizona went 0-5 in the COVID season of 202 and then 1-11 in 2021. In stark contrast, SD State has been to 10 bowls over the last 11 seasons, including going 12-2 last year, after a 38-24 Frisco Bowl win over UTSA.

Arizona gets a boost at QB, as Jayden de Laura, the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman Player of the Year while at Washington State last season, takes over at QB. He completed 227 of 359 passes for 2,798 yards, with 23 TDs and nine INTs in 2021. However, the Wildcats' have allowed 39.8 PPG in 2020 and 31.4 PPG in 2021. The fact that eight defensive starters return is not necessarily a "good thing" Speaking of defense, SD State has allowed 12.7 PPG, 17.8 PPG and 19.8 PPG (last season). The fact that EIGHT starters return on that side of the ball is a "GOOD thing."

SD State lost their 1,000-yd rusher Greg Bell (1,019 yards) and its top-two QBs. However, the Aztecs add former Va Tech QB Burmeister (1,960 yards with 14 TDs and 4 INTs in 2021) plus still have a deep stable of productive RBs. I refuse to overthink this. SD State has to be thrilled to begin the season from brand new Snapdragon Stadium, after playing its home games the last two seasons in Carson, Ca (two hours away). "B-L-O-W-O-U-T" Alert issued.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Appalachian St at 12:00 ET.

North Carolina (1-0) comes in off 56-24 home drubbing of FAMU, while Appalachian St will be playing its season opener. Mack Brown did an excellent job making North Carolina 'more than just a basketball school' back in the 1990s but then left for Texas. He would go 158-48 in his 16 years at Austin, leading the Longhorns to 15 bowl games. He posted 10 or more wins in NINE consecutive seasons (from 2001-09), famously winning the 2005 national championship over a great USC team. However, Texas would go just 30-21 from 2010 through 2013 and Brown resigned. He stepped away for five years but returned to North Carolina in 2019. The Tar Heels have gone a disappointing 21-17 in that span, as their explosive offense has been brought down by a leaky defense.

No one will forget Appalachian St's shocking 34-32 road win over Michigan back in 2007, when the Mountaineers were still an FCS team. App St is now an FBS member and doing just fine. The Mountaineers have gone 83-19 (.814) the last seven years (2015-21), winning SIX consecutive bowl games before losing to WKU in last year's Boca Raton Bowl. They've had THREE different head coaches in that span, but the winning has never stopped.

North Carolina QB Drake Maye has big shoes to fill in replacing record-setter Sam Howell. However, he fit into them just fine last Saturday in his debut for the Tar Heels. Maye threw five TD passes in his team's 56-24 win over visiting Florida A&M to become the first Tar Heels QB to accomplish the five-TD feat in his first career start. That said, winning at home vs a mediocre school like FAMU is one thing, winning at App St (38-5 the last seven years), is another. The Mountaineers have their own talented QB Chase Brice, who was just named last week to the watch list for the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, a befitting honor for the sixth-year redshirt senior who established a school-record 3,337 passing yards last season. App St also returns the RB duo of Noel (1,128 yards / 5.7 YPC) and Peoples (926 yards / 14 TDs). FOUR of their five starting OL returns.

In-state bragging rights are at stake here and has noted, Appalachian State has repeatedly found itself in the top-25 since moving up to the FBS. Appalachian State defeated North Carolina in 2019 at Chapel Hill, a loss that didn't sit well with Tar Heels fans given the Mountaineers have always been viewed as the little brother. Boone, North Carolina will be 'rocking' for this 12 noon ET start and I say "the little brother" gets a surprisingly comfortable win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big 10 Game of the Month is on Indiana at 8:00 ET.

Two teams that don't figure to contend in the Big 10 conference in 2022 meet Saturday, when Illinois (5-7 LY) visits Bloomington to face Indiana (2-10 LY). Bret Bielema took over at Wisconsin when Barry Alvarez retired in 2006 and in seven years went 64-28, earning SEVEN consecutive bowl berths. He left to take the Arkansas job but went only 29-34 in five seasons and then spent a few years as as an NFL assistant, before being hired at Illinois for the 2021 season after Lovie Smith was fired, The Illini do have a game under their belts in 2022, having routed Wyoming 38-6 last Saturday.

Tom Allen took over at Indiana after Kevin Wilson abruptly resigned back in 2016. He opened with back-to-back 5-7 seasons but led Indiana to a Gator Bowl berth and an 8-5 record in 2019, The Hoosiers were a HUGE surprise in the COVID season of 2022. They finished the 2020 regular season 6-1 ranked seventh in the AP poll, eighth in the coaches' poll, and 11th in the CFP rankings and earned a bid in the Outback Bowl, where they lost to Ole Miss, 20–26. Following the culmination of the season, Allen would be named the 2020 Big Ten Coach of the Year, Allen's 2021 Indiana team was ranked 17th to begin the 2021 season, but quickly fell out of the rankings after a 34-6 loss to Iowa in their first game of the season. The team finished the season 2-10 and went 0-9 in Big Ten play.

Tommy DeVito, a transfer from Syracuse, was named the starter for Illinois (1-0) days before the opener. He was 27-of-37 for 194 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. RB Brown added 151 yards rushing with two TDs, The Hoosiers are taking a page from Illinois coach Bret Bielema's book by withholding the identity of their starting QB for the Friday night affair in Bloomington.  Fifth-year senior Jack Tuttle started two games in 2021 but wasn't handed the starting job. He said he has carried himself "with a chip on my shoulder" since the end of last season, but he's locked in a duel with Missouri transfer Connor Bazelak. The former Tigers' QB made 20 starts at Mizzou and passed for 5,058 yards with 23 touchdowns, 17 interceptions and a 66.3 completion percentage.

Here's why I like Indiana in this spot. The winning team has covered 14 straight in this series. Maybe even more notable for this game is that Indiana is a MONEY-MAKING 11-2 ATS as a home favorite during Allen's tenure. Expect Indiana to get the win at home and move the series win/cover streak to 15 in a row!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* CFB 2022 Season Opener is on UTEP at 9:00 ET.

North Texas and UTEP both ended last year's regular season at 6-6 and went 'bowling.' However, each team's journey to those 6-6 finishes came via very different paths. The Mean Green opened 1-6 but finished with FIVE straight wins (and covers), highlighted by the team's 45-33 win (as a 10-point home underdog) over an 11-0 UTSA team that was ranked No. 15. The team averaged a whopping 283.0 YPG rushing in its closing 5-0 run, including 340 against the Roadrunners. In stark contrast, UTEP got off to a surprising 6-1 start, before losing FOUR of five to end the regular season. What the teams did have in common was that both lost their respective bowl games. Of note, for UTSA's Seth Littrell, it was his FIFTH bowl appearance in his six seasons at UTSA. Meanwhile for UTEP head coach Dana Dimmel, last year's bowl game was the school's FIRST since 2014. What's more, UTEP's SEVEN victories in 2021 matched UTEP's total over the previous FIVE seasons combined.

Deandre Torrey (1,215 / TDs) left for the NFL but was just released by the Eagles. North Texas does have equality and depth at RB but I don't see any way the Mean Green will average 233.5 YPG rushing like last season (5th-best in FBS). A real issue for North Texas is the team's QB play Austin Aune did lead North Texas to its season-ending five-game winning streak but as noted above, he was more of a 'caretaker,' as the Mean's Green's devastating rushing attack carried the load. Aune completed just 51.9 percent last season with 9 TDs and 9 INTs. That was a big drop off from his 13 TD, 4 INT season of 2020.

The Miners own a solid edge at the QB position, as Gavin Henderson made a big leap from 2020, passing for 3,218 yards with 18 TDs and 13 INTs in 2021. It can NOT go unmentioned that in 2021, Hardison became the first UTEP signal caller to surpass 3,000 yards passing in school history. I believe he will be the "difference-maker" in this one. Let me add that UTEP also has a solid edge on defense with EIGHT starters back. The home team has covered SIX straight in this series and UTEP is 7-2 SU at home the last two years. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SB 56 Super Pick is on the LA Rams at 6:30 ET.

The Super Bowl is back in the Los Angeles mark for the EIGHTH time, as only Miami (11) and New Orleans (10) have hosted more. Sunday's game will be played at SoFi Stadium (home to the Rams), as for the SECOND consecutive year a team has played host to a Super Bowl playing in its home stadium (the Bucs hosted SB 55 last year at Raymond James). No team had hosted a Super Bowl in its home stadium for the first 54 Super Bowls but it's now happened in back-to-back seasons. Could the Cards make it three years in a row by hosting next year's Super Bowl in Glendale, Az? Seems like a stretch but how many had the Bengals, coming off a 4-11-1 year and having last won a playoff game in the 1990 season, reaching this year's Super Bowl? Or for that matter, how many had the Rams as the NFC favorite to be here, led by Matthew Stafford and his 0-3 career record in the postseason during his 12 years with the Lions? Anyway, it's the Bengals and Rams in Super Bowl 56, playing in the same city as the first-ever Super Bowl. That game was played in the LA Coliseum, as Lombardi's Packers beat Hank Stram's Chief 35-10. The game was played on Jan 15, 1967 (1966 season) with the official merger not coming until the start of the 1970 season. Those were the days!

How the teams made the postseason: The Bengals went just 4-11-1 in Joe Burrow's rookie season but their 10-7 record in 2021 was good enough to win the AFC Central for the first time since 2015 (it didn't hurt that the Ravens ended the season on a SIX-game losing streak!). Burrow had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs), while RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs), as well as TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs) gave Burrow an excellent receiving corps. Perhaps overlooked, was that the Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons. As for the Rams, they opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth (at best) and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games (Cards would finish 2-4) and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers, were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle. Stafford struggled some down the stretch but had an excellent season, completing 67.2% for 4,886 yards with 41 TDs and 17 INTs. His QB rating of 102.9 was the best of his career in which he played a full season, The LA running game suffered a ton of injuries but WR Cooper Kupp had 145 receptions for 1,947 receiving yards. Both rank second in single-season NFL history to Michael Thomas' 149 catches and to Calvin Johnson's 1,964 receiving yards, respectively. He also led the NFL with 16 TD receptions. The Rams have an excellent defense but for most of the season, the D was considered underachievers.

The Playoffs: Burrow has been good (not great), throwing for 842 yards, completing 68.8% with 4 TDs and 2 INTs. He has a terrific receiving corps, with Chase leading the way with 20 catches in the three wins. However, Cincy's running game has disappeared, averaging just 88.0 YPG on 3.8 YPC. The Cincy defense has been OUTSTANDING, allowing just 35 points to the Raiders and Titans (17.5 per) in the team's first two playoff wins. Then after allowing the Chiefs to score 21 points on their first three possessions in the AFC championship game, the Bengals D shut down Patrick Patrick and company, as KC had just 83 yards and two interceptions during seven second-half possessions). KC's only points came on a FG (0:00), which sent the game to OT. As for Stafford, after throwing SEVEN interceptions in his final three regular season games (104 attempts), he's completed 72.% of his passes in three playoff wins, throwing for 905 yards with six TDs and just ONE interception (in 100 attempts!). Like Burrow, he's gotten little or no help from LA's running game (94.3 YPG on 2.9 YPC) but Kupp (25 catches / 15.4 YPC / 4 TDs) has been spectacular and OBJ (19 catches) is playing as if he cares. The LA defense has turned it up a notch, dominating the Cards (holding them to 11 points on 183 yards), while holding the 49ers to 17 points (282 yards) in the NFC championship game. The only 'blip on the radar' was allowing Brady and the Bucs to overcome a 27-3 deficit to tie the game at 27-all, before LA won on a late FG.

The BIG game: Not only will neither No. 1 seed be represented in this game, but the to-3 three seeds in both conferences are out, leaving us with two No. 4 seeds. By the numbers, Super Bowl underdogs are 13-6-1 ATS the last 20 years and since 1999, Super Bowl underdogs of plus 3.5 or higher are 10-2 ATS, including a perfect 6-0 the last six times. Does that mean Cincy plus the points? I say NO! I love Burrow but I believe this is "Stafford's time" and he's been terrific this postseason (see above). While I've chronicled Cincy's defensive improvement, the LA defense has been dominating all postseason, save that stretch when it coughed up a 27-3 lead from the late-third quarter to when the Bucs tied it at 27-all with 42 seconds left. However, the Rams, not the Bengals own defensive superstars like Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Jalen Ramsey. Then there is the Zac Taylor vs Sean McVay coaching matchup. Taylor owned just a 6-25-1 mark his first two seasons (prior to this year's run), while McVay is now in a Super Bowl for the SECOND time in four years (career record in the regular season is 55-26, .679). Sure, the atmosphere of a Super Bowl mitigates the home field edge somewhat but I believe it's still a significant edge for the Rams (seemed to work OK for the Bucs last year). Of course, Stafford is no Tom Brady (no one is) but for one game, he can be "Just like Tom!" I say Sunday is that game!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC West Game of the Year (late-Breaker) is on the LA Rams at 6:40 ET.

Who'da thunk it? Sean McVay of the Rams, and Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers were both hired within a month of each other in 2017 and now, the winner of Sunday's NFC championship game will be making his second Super Bowl appearance in a five-year span. The Rams made it to Super Bowl 53 but lost 13-3 to the Pats and the 49ers made it to Super Bowl 54, where they lost 31-20 to the Chiefs. The 49ers were just 3-5 through Week 9 but would go 7-2 SU & ATS down the stretch. San Francisco came back from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Rams 27-24 in OT in Week 18, capped by a walk-off interception, after they had kicked a FG in the OT period. That "W" beat out the Saints for the NFC's last unclaimed spot. As for the Rams, they opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth (at best) and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games (Cards would finish 2-4) and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (see above), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle.

We have two interesting storylines heading into the game. The much-maligned Jimmy G led the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance in the 2019 season (lost to Mahomes and the Chiefs) but is now one win away from a second SB appearance in a three-year span, despite passing for only 303 yards without a TD and two INTs (QB rating of 63.0) the last two weekends. Matthew Stafford's 'story' is well-known, having suffered for 12 years in Detroit, after being the first overall pick of the 2009 draft. He put up HUGE numbers each year, but he entered this postseason 0-3 in his playoff career. However, he has completed 74.5% of his passes for 568 yards with four TDs and zero INTs in 44 attempts (131.5 QB rating). Naturally, the QBs typically get "top billing" but maybe not here. 

San Francisco WR Deebo Samuel is the NFL's most versatile talent, and one of just THREE players in history with at least EIGHT rushing TDs and 1,000 receiving yards in a season (the others are RBs Roger Craig in 1985 and Christian McCaffrey in 2019). The Rams' WR Cooper Kupp had 145 receptions for 1,947 receiving yards. Both rank second in single-season NFL history to Michael Thomas' 149 catches and to Calvin Johnson's 1,964 receiving yards, respectively. Kupp has 14 catches for 244 yards in LA's two wins, averaging 17.4 YPC with two TDs. As for Deebo, he's run for 111 yards on 5.6 YPC with one TD plus added six catches (13.7 YPC).

The old 'wives tale' says, it's hard to beat the same team THREE times in a single season but don't we have to 'throw that out,' as the 46ers own SIX consecutive wins over the Rams? Then again, are the 49ers really capable of winning AT Dallas, AT Green Bay and now AT Los Angeles in a three-week span? I've wrestled with this all week but have finally decided that I want Stafford over Jimmy G and will make the Rams my Late Breaker. The Bucs became the first team to host a Super Bowl last season in their home stadium (Raymond James) and now the Rams could make it 'deja vu all over again' with a win on Sunday to advance to the Super Bowl Feb 13th in their home stadium, SoFi Stadium. Bet on it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' 38-Club Play is on the KC Chiefs at 3:00 ET.

The just-completed Divisional Round is being hailed as the NFL's "Greatest Postseason Weekend of All-Time" and you won't get an argument from me. Everyone has either watched, seen the highlights of or read the countless recaps of the four games, so I'll move on. The 2021 NFL season is down to its version of a 'Final Four, on January 30th, or Championship Sunday, if you prefer. The Cincinnati Bengals entered the postseason without a playoff win in 31 years but here in January, have won TWO playoff games in a seven-day span! After a 19-16 win over the Titans (on a last-second FG), the Bengals have advanced to the AFC Championship for the 1st time since the 1988 season, the same year in which they lost the 'John Candy Super Bowl' to the SF 49ers of Bill Walsh, Joe Montana, Jerry Rice and Ronnie Lott. Awaiting them at Arrowhead Stadium will be the KC Chiefs, who edged the Buffalo Bills 42-36 in what's being called 'the greatest game' in NFL history! I'm sure that statement could be debated, but one would have to come up with quite an argument. The Chiefs, who played in Super I and then won Super Bowl IV, the last played prior to the 1970 merger, now become the first team in NFL history to host a conference championship in FOUR consecutive seasons.

The Bengals went just 4-11-1 in Joe Burrow's rookie season but their 10-7 record in 2021 was good enough to win the AFC Central for the first time since 2015 (it didn't hurt that the Ravens ended the season on a SIX-game losing streak!). Burrow had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs), while RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs), as well as TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs) gave Burrow an excellent receiving corps. Perhaps overlooked, was that the Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons.

Burrow has thrown just two TDs in the two playoff wins but has completed 73.2% with only one INT in 73 attempts. WR Chase (14 catches) does not have a TD catch but is sure making his presence known, while TE Uzomah has 13 receptions and one TD. RB Mixon has been held to just 102 yards rushing (3.3 YPC) but does have 10 catches. An area of concern has to be that Cincy's running game has averaged only 74.0 YPG (3.4 YPC) through two playoff games, after averaging 102.5 YPG on the season. However, it's excellent news that the Cincy defense has allowed just 35 points to the Raiders and Titans (17.5 per).

The Chiefs entered the current season off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (1-1) and having won FIVE consecutive AFC West titles. However, after just SEVEN games, the Chiefs were a sub-.500 team at 3-4! The 'cry' went out, "What's wrong with the Chiefs and in particular, Patrick Mahomes?" KC answered that question emphatically, going 9-1 to finish the regular season and win the AFC West for the SIXTH straight season at 12-5. However, that ONE loss (34-31 at Cincy on a last-second FG), cost KC the No. 1 seed. Tennessee (also 12-5) won the tiebreaker over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage (Titans beat the Chiefs 27-3 in Tennessee back in Week 7!). Mahomes had an 'average' season (for him), completing 66.3 % for 4,839 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs (ho hum!). RBs Williams (558 yards on 3.9 YPC with 6 TDs) and Edwards-Helaire (517 yards on 4.3 YPC with 4 TDs) have missed time all season and McKinnon, who ran for just 62 yards all season, has been KC's 'featured' RB in the postseason (if you pardon the pun). The Chiefs own the best WR-TE duo in the NFL with Hill (111 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (92 catches / 9 TDs) plus have depth at WR in Hardeman (59 catches) and Pringle (42 catches / 5 TDs). The defense ended the regular season allowing 368.9 YPG, ranking 27th but the good news was that KC allowed a more modest 21.4 PPG, which ranked 8th-best (more in a bit).

Mahomes has been terrific in two playoff victories, leading KC to 42 points against both the Steelers and the Bills. He's completed 75.9% for 782 yards with 8 TDs and just one INT. He also ran for 98 yards (on just 10 attempts) plus another TD. Edwards-Helaire returned vs Buffalo and ran for 60 yards on just seven carries (8.6 YPC), as the Chiefs have run for 144.0 YPG in two playoff games, averaging 5.9 YPC. Hill has 16 catches (2 TDs) and Kelce 13 catches and two TDs (including the game-winner in OT vs Buffalo). I noted the KC defense earlier and will note here that in the team's 9-1 finish to the regular season, the unit allowed just 15.8 PPG.

KC enters this game on an 11-1 run, with the team's only loss coming 34-31 at Cincy (Week 17) on a last-second FG. I'm not sure at all that the win over KC was a "good thing" for the Bengals. I've noted Cincy's greatly improved defense but now that stop unit now goes from facing Derek Carr and Ryan Tannehill, to Patrick Mahomes. He's been at his best the last two weeks, leading KC to 478 yards and 42 points against a decent Steelers defense, followed by producing 42 points and 552 yards in overtime against the Bills, who owned a defense that led the NFL in both points allowed (17.0) and total yards (272.8) during the regular season.

Cincy won the franchise's first playoff game in 31 years in the wild card round but Cincy's 19-16 win at Tennessee last weekend, marked the franchise's FIRST-ever postseason road win! I bought up Mahomes' numbers in his career home playoff games in my analysis last Sunday (LEGEND Play win on KC over Buff) and will update and remind all again here. Mahomes is 7-1 in home playoff games, completing 68.9% for an average of 318.8 YPG through the air with 23 TD passes and just ONE interception in 293 attempts! This is NOT the time or place for the Bengals to earn the franchise's second all-time road playoff win. In fact, I don't see the Bengals even coming close. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

The Bills and Chiefs met in last year's AFC championship game, with KC winning at home. The two teams opened the 2021 season as favorites to meet again in this season's title game and while the Bills and Chiefs are meeting in the 2021 postseason (again in Kansas City), it's ONE week sooner than anticipated. However, at one point during the recently completed regular season a Buff/KC Part 2 was NOT looking likely.

Buffalo was shocked in Week 1 at home by the Steelers (lost 23-16) and while the Bills rebounded quickly with FOUR straight wins, they would lose FIVE of their next eight to fall to 7-6, falling TWO games behind the 9-4 Pats. However, the Bills ended the season with FOUR straight wins (including a 33-21 victory in New England) to finish 11-6, while the Pats' lost THREE of four. The 11-6 Bills won the AFC East, with the Pats earning a wild card berth. The Bills hosted the Pats in the NFL's Super Wild Card Weekend and I'm pretty sure you KNOW how that turned out (more later, in case you missed it). 

The Chiefs entered the current season off back-to-back Super Bowl appearances (1-1) and having won FIVE consecutive AFC West titles. However, after just SEVEN games, the Chiefs were a sub-.500 team at 3-4! The 'cry' went out, "What's wrong with the Chiefs and in particular, Patrick Mahomes?" KC answered that question emphatically, going 9-1 to finish the regular season 12-5 and win the AFC West for the SIXTH straight season. However, that ONE loss (34-31 at Cincy on a last-second FG), cost KC the No. 1 seed. Tennessee (also 12-5) won the tiebreaker over Kansas City based on head-to-head win percentage (Titans beat the Chiefs 27-3 in Tennessee back in Week 7!). Again, in case you were asleep, the Chiefs beat the Steeklers 42-21 last weekend in a wild card game.

Buffalo's Josh Allen (63.3% for 4,407 yards with 36 TDs and 15 INTs / 763 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC with 6 TDs) had a terrific season (again!) He then set a team playoff record with five TD passes in a 47-17 DESTRUCTION of the division-rival Patriots in a wild-card playoff game. Buffalo became the NFL's first team in the Super Bowl era to score on each of its seven possessions that didn't end with a kneel down. Allen completed 21 of 25 for 308 yards without an INT (QB rating of 157.8!), while adding 66 rushing yards. RB Singletary (870 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) ran for 81 yards and two TDs, while TE Knox (49 catches / 9 TDs) had two TD receptions. Allen has a terrific group of WRs, led by Diggs (103 catches / 10 TDs) plus Beasley (82 catches), Sanders (42 / 14.9 / 4 TDs) and Davis (35 / 15.7 / 6 TDs). Buffalo's offense ranked 3rd in scoring (28.4 PPG) but its defense was No. in the NFL in points allowed (17.0) and yards allowed (272.8). That's a pretty sweet 'daily double.'

Mahomes had an 'average' season (for him), completing 66.3 % for 4,839 yards with 37 TDs and 13 INTs (ho hum!). He then completed 30 of 39 for 404 yards with five TD passes and one iNT in the rout of Pittsburgh. RBs Williams (558 yards on 3.9 YPC with 6 TDs) and Edwards-Helaire (517 yards on 4.3 YPC with 4 TDs) have missed time all season. Both are questionable here but McKinnon, who ran for just 62 yards all season, ran 12 times for 61 yards (5.1 YPC) vs Pittsburgh. The Chiefs own the best WR-TE duo in the NFL with Hill (111 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (92 catches / 9 TDs) plus have depth at WR in Hardeman (59 catches) and Pringle (42 catches / 5 TDs). The KC offense has averaged 28.2 PPG (4th) but the defense has allowed 368.9 YPG, ranking 27th. The good news is that KC is allowing a more modest 21.4 PPG, which ranks 8th-best.

The point spread here indicates that Buffalo would be a favorite on a neutral field and maybe that's right, as the Bills crushed the Chiefs 38-10 at KC back in Week 5. However, doesn't that give KC even more incentive here? Allen was great vs the Pats but note that in last year's AFC title game, Allen was badly outplayed by Mahomes. Allen threw 48 times (28 completions for 287 yards with two TDs and one INT (QB rating of 80.8). Meanwhile, Mahomes was 29 of 38 for 325 yards with three Tds and zero INTs for a 127.6 QB rating. Mahomes is 7-2 as a starter in the playoffs, losing only to Tom Brady (against the Pats in the 2018 AFC championship game) and in last year's Super Bowl vs the Bucs. Allen has become a star but he's NO Brady.

My closing note is this. In SEVEN home playoff games (6-1 / loss to Brady and the Pats), Mahomes has completed 67.9% of his passes, while averaging 310.3 YPG passing. He's thrown 20 TDs passes in those seven, against just ONE interception in 249 attempts. KC "all the way!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Division Round O/U Game of the Year is on LAR/TB Under at 3:30 ET.

The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle. That set the stage for the Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. It was a "no-contest," as the Rams were up 28-0 in the late third quarter on their way to a 34-11 (BTW...The Rams were my 10* Wild Card GOY pick!). Stafford picked up his first career playoff win (was 0-3 with the Lions), throwing a modest 17 times, completing 13 for 202 yards with two TDs and no INTs. RBs Michel (58 yards) and Akers (55) allowed the Rams to run for 140 yards, 41 yards more than the team's 99.0 YPG average on the season. The Rams defense, which somewhat underachieved this season, held the Cards to just 183 total yards.

The Rams will travel to Raymond James Stadium on Sunday to face the defending champions Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs won the Super Bowl last season in Tom Brady's first year with the team. They took "the wild card route" last year but this season won the NFC South for the first time since 2007 with a 13-4 record. The ageless Brady led the NFL in passing yards, TDs, attempts and completions this season (threw for 5,316 yards with 43 TDs and just 12 INTs), as the Bucs averaged 30.1 PPG (2nd), while the Tampa Bay defense held opponents to 20.8 PPG (5th). Tampa Bay's wild card win last weekend was a 'walk in the park,' as the Bucs ran 25 plays to Philadelphia's eight in the first quarter, outgaining the Eagles 137 yards to 17 and compiling an 11-1 edge in first downs. The Bucs led 31-0 and won 31-15. Brady was 29 of 37 for 271 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. The victory gives him a 35-11 postseason record, including 21-4 in home games.

With the Rams showing a running game last weekend, Stafford could/should be able to attack the Tampa Bay defense with a more balanced offense, while the Bucs could really use Fournette to be able to play, after he missed last week with a hamstring injury (he's listed as probable). Vaugh and Bernard combined for 97 yards rushing vs the Eagles (each ran for a TD) plus combined for seven catches, but Fournette ran for 812 yards (4.5 YPC / 8 TDs) and caught 69 passes with two TDs this regular season. The Rams went 7-2 SU away from home this season, while the Bucs have gone 8-1 SU at home. The Rams head into Tampa looking for their EIGHTH win in NINE tries against the Bucs (dating back to 2012) but I don't believe that's particularly relevant, now the Brady is Tampa Bay's QB. That said, I will note that the Rams beat the Bucs 34-24 back in Week 3 in LA.

However, what I do see as relevant is that both "very talented" defenses were superb last weekend. The Rams held the Cards to 183 total yards (team was up 28-0) and the Bucs were up 31-0 over the Eagles, before allowing two 'garbage' TDs in the 4th quarter (Eagles had just 14 FDs and 244 total yards, most coming in those two late TD drives). A win here for Stafford over Brady would be HUGE for him but with the Bucs playing with revenge, it's hard for me to go against Tampa Bay. However, I have NO problem betting on this contest to go U-N-D-E-R. That's the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 4:30 ET.

Zac Taylor arrived in Cincinnati for the 2019 season and the Bengals struggled to a 2-14 finish. Cincy then drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft but Burrow was lost in the 10th game of the season, as the Bengals would only slightly improve by going 4-11-1. However, the Bengals went 10-7 in 2021 and won the AFC North for the first time since 2015. Then last Saturday, Joe Burrow led his team to its first playoff victory in 31 years, 26-19 over Las Vegas in an AFC wild-card game. Burrow (24 of 34 with 244 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs for a QB rating of 110.4) led an efficient offense that scored on SIX drives. PK Evan McPherson became the first rookie to make four FGs without a miss in a postseason debut, and Germaine Pratt sealed it with a fourth-down interception in the dying seconds. It was a victory three decades in the making for the Bengals (last playoff win came back in 1990!) After going from worst to first in the AFC North with a generally young roster, the Bengals ended that embarrassingly long postseason drought that included EIGHT consecutive defeats.

Mike Vrabel took over in Nashville  in 2018 and after back-to-back 9-7 seasons, his Titans have now won the AFC South in two consecutive years, going 11-5 in 2020 and 12-5 here in 2021. Note, Tennessee's wild card team of 2019, made it all the way to the AFC championship game (1st time in 17 years!), before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champions Chiefs. This year's team not only won the AFC South but also earned the AFC's overall No. 1 seed, giving them last weekend off.

Burrow has had an excellent season (70.4% for 4,611 yards with 34 TDs and 11 INTs. RB Mixon had a career season, running for 1,205 yards with 13 TDs, while catching 42 passes (3 TDs). WR Chase (also from LSU) caught 81 passes (18.0 YPC / 13 TDs) plus is joined by fellow WRs Higgins (74 / 14.7 YPC / 6 TDs) and Boyd ( 67 / 5 TDs) plus TE Uzomah (49 / 5 TDs). The Cincy defense allowed 22.1 PPG, a significant improvement after allowing 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons.

The Titans were 6-2 when RB Derrick Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill (67.2% / 3,734 yards / 21-14 ratio) has had to shoulder more of the load, and he was often not up to the challenge. However, at 8-4, the Titans would win FOUR other their last five, including THREE straight to end the regular season, clinching the No. 1 seed. Kudos to Tannehill, who in that three-game winning streak, completed 73.4% of his passes with a 7-0 TD/INT ratio). WR Brown 63 catches / 13.8 YPC / 5 TDs) is the team's best receiver but Westbrook-Ikhine (38 / 5 TDs) and the now-healthy Juliuo Jones (31 / 14.0 YPC) are reliable targets. The Tennessee defense is stout, allowing 20.8 PPG (6th) and ranks second in the league in rushing yards allowed (84.8).

Congrats to the Bengals but note they had just 308 total yards vs the Raiders and constantly settled for FGs. RB Mixon was held to 48 yards rushing on 2.8 YPC and the Tennessee rush D is a 'tough nut to crack' (see above). Henry could be back here and what a bonus that would be. However, I'm "all over" the Titans, either way. Consider the following. Both sides went 4-2 vs eventual playoff teams, but if we dig a little deeper, we see those records aren't equal. Both the Colts and Chargers were favored to win in Week 18, but they both lost. Tennessee would have been 6-2 against playoff teams if Tennessee and Los Angeles had won in the final week (and that's to go along with impressive victories over the Chiefs and Rams). If that scenario had played out, the Bengals would have been just 1-3 vs playoff destined teams. 

I noted the Tennessee D earlier but here's more. The Titans went from allowing 384 yards and 26.8 points a game during the first six weeks to only 300.3 yards and 17.5 points during the final 11 games, holding four of their last five opponents to fewer than 20 points. Tennessee went 7-2 SU at home and head coach Mike Vrabel is 4-0 SU & ATS following a bye, beating the closing point spread by an average of 19.1 points! Cincy is 'One & Done' this playoff season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 and through Week 13, stood at 10-2. However, the Cards would lose FOUR of their last five (lone exception was a 25-22 win at Dallas in Week 17 that clinched a playoff spot) to finish 11-6. That left them ONE game worse than the LA Rams, who captured the NFC West with a 12-5 record. The Rams opened the season 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, falling to 7-4 (Cards were 9-2 thru 11 games). At that time, it looked as if the Rams were headed for a wild card berth and the Cards for the division title. However, the Rams would win FIVE straight games and even with a Week 18 home loss to the 49ers (blew a 17-0 lead to lose in OT), were able to earn the NFC West title, as the Cards lost in Week 18 at home to Seattle.

That sets the stage for Rams to play host to the Cards in the first-ever Monday night playoff game. The Cardinals-Rams primetime showdown will be the third meeting between the teams, with the road team having won the previous two. The game will not only be Kyler Murray's playoff debut, but it will be the Cardinals' first appearance in the playoffs since 2015, when they defeated the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round but were blown out by the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game. As for the Rams, they are in the playoffs for the FOURTH time in Sean McVay's five seasons as head coach. This time around the Rams' QB is Matthew Stafford, who after 12 seasons with Detroit (where he put up monster numbers), will take the field looking to earn his first-ever playoff game (0-3 with the Lions!).

Murray completed 68.2% for 3,787 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. He missed three games during the regular season and hasn't been quite the same in his return, with just five TD passes in five games, without a rushing TD (had five in his first nine games!). He has really missed WR Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), who last played on Dec 13 (still not available). Kirk (77 catches / 5 TDs) has had an excellent season and veteran AJ Green (54 catches / 15.7 TYPC / 3 TDs) has shown flashes of his earlier brilliance, but only at times. Rookie WR Moore has added a 'quiet' 54 catches (just 8.1 YPC) and TE Ertz (acquired from the Eagles in a trade during the season), has added 56 catches in his 11 games with the Cards. RB Conner has been hurt down the stretch but returned in Week 18 (52 yards and a TD), giving him 752 yards rushing on the season (just 3.7 YPC) but an impressive 15 TDs. His RB partner is Edmonds, who has run for 592 yards on 5.1 YPC. The Arizona defense has played well, holding opponents to 21.5 PPG (12th).

Stafford has put up terrific numbers in his Detroit career but his move to LA was seen as a "get out of jail" opportunity. Stafford has put up excellent numbers again, completing 67.2% for 4,886 yards with 41 TDs and 17 INTs. WR Cooper Kupp set a Rams-record 1,947 receiving yards, while he also pulled off the WR 'triple crown,' leading the NFL in receptions (145), TDs (16) and receiving yards. Veteran WR Woods (45 catches / 4 TDs) was lost during the regular season but Jefferson (a third-year pro) has 50 catches on 16.0 YPC with 5 TDs. TE Higbee has 61 catches with 5 TDs. RB Sony Michel has run for 845 yards (4.1 YPC / 4 TDs), averaging 99.4 YPG during the team's five-game winning streak and Cam Akers may be "ready to go!" The LA defense has not been as good as it's been in previous seasons but does check in allowing 21.9 PPG (1th). Not bad.

Here's the rub. The Cardinals are 8-1 on the road and while the Cardinals may have been the best team in the NFL up until late October. They’ve gone downhill losing (1-4 finish) and Kyler Murray hasn’t regained his early season dominance. He greatly misses the dynamic Hopkins, out for the season with a knee injury plus Murray’s running skills have diminished. Remember, this is Murray's first playoff start and he's had just two multiple touchdown games since Week 7. Stafford's 0-3 in the playoffs all time, but that was THEN and this is NOW. Stafford has thrown five TDs to one INT in two games against the Cardinals this year. It's "now or never" for the veteran. I'm laying the points and I'm also expecting an "A-effort" by Aaron Donald and the LA defense.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card O/U Game of the Year is on SF/Dal Under at 4:30 ET.

The San Francisco 49ers opened 2-0 but then lost four in a row (and five of six), to fall to 3-5. However, the 49ers closed on a 7-2 run, including winning 27-24 (in OT) at the LA Rams (trailed 17-0) to clinch the NFC's No. 6 seed at 10-7 in Week 18. The Dallas Cowboys lost their season opener 31-29 at Tampa (on a last second FG) but then won SIX in a row. Three losses in their next four followed but after a 36-33 OT loss to the Raiders in Dallas on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys would win four straight, lose 25-22 at home vs Arizona in Week 17 and rout the Eagles 51-26 in Philly in Week 18. Dallas finished 12-5, including an NFL-best 13-4 ATS. Dallas has Super Bowl 'dreams' but gets a tough matchup in San Francisco, which boasts a strong running game and a stronger run defense.

RB Mitchell has 963 yards on 4.7 YPFC with 5 TDs plus WR Deebo Samuel has run for 365 yards on 6.2 YPC with 5 TDs. The 49ers are averaging 127.4 YPG rushing (7th) and the running game has made it a little easier for the oft-criticized Jimmy Garoppolo. Jimmy G should have answered his critics with excellent play down the stretch, finishing the season by completing 68.3% for 3,810 yards with 20 TDs and 12 TDs. WR Samuel was just named to the All-Pro team and it's well-deserved. His contributions to the running game have been HUGE, plus he's caught 77 passes with a 18.2 YPC average and 6 TDs. Fellow WR Aiyuk has 56 catches (14.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Kittle caught 71 passes with 6 TDs, despite missing three games. The San Francisco D is allowing 21.5 PPG and is holding opponents to just 103.5 YPG on the ground (7th).

Dak Prescott is coming off a Week 18 game in which he completed 21 of 27 attempts for 295 yards and five TDs in just over three quarters of action. He's completing 68.8% for 4,449 yards with 37 TDs and 10 INTs, helping Dallas lead the NFL in scoring at 31.2 PPG. This year's team set a franchise record with 22 different players scoring at least one TD. The RB duo of Elliott (1,002 / 4.2 YPC / 10 TDs / 47 catches) and Pollard (719 yards on 5.5 YPC with 2 TDs) looks good on paper but I'll add a comment later. Lamb (79 catches / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs), Cooper (68 catches / 12.7 YPC / 8 TDs) and Wilson (45 catches / 6 TDs) plus TE Schultz (78 catches / 8 TDs) provide a plethora of options for Dak. The Dallas offense gets all the accolades but the team's defense is allowing 21.1 PPG (7th), while leading the NFL with 34 takeaways.

Zeke may have had a 1,000-yard season (no big deal with a 17-game schedule) and 10 rushing TDs but his 87 yards rushing in Week 18, was the first time he had more than 69 yards rushing in a game in his last 12 contests! Meanwhile, there might not be a more physical team than the 49ers and they match up well against Dallas because of their ground game and quick, short passing attack. Both teams play excellent defense and I see a much lower scoring game than the posted O/U line. Let's call it, "Under Downunder!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles opened the season 3-6 but then won SIX of seven to clinch a playoff spot, so their 51-26 loss at home to Dallas in Week 18 meant nothing. Coming off a 4-11-1 season in 2020, the 9-8 Eagles now set their sights on upsetting the reigning Super Bowl champs on Sunday in Tampa. The 13-4 Bucs won the NFC South for the first time since 2007, behind their 'second-year' QB Tom Brady. Rumor has it that Brady previously played for the Patriots, achieving a certain level of success.

The two teams met back in Week 6 in Philly, as Brady passed for 297 yards and two TDs in a 28-22 Tampa Bay win. The Eagles intercepted him once but recorded no sacks and only three QB hits. The Philly D forced four, three-and-outs in that contest but Brady led two 75-yard TD drives to open the game and added two more long drives (72 and 79 yards) that ended in Leonard Fournette TDs runs. As for Tampa's defense, it held Philly QB Hurts to 115 yards on 12 of 26 passing in Week 6, with one TD and one INT, but he did score two second-half rushing TDs, earning the Eagles a 'backdoor cover!'

Hurts missed two games this season but entered having completed 61.3% for 3,144 yards with 16 TDs and 9 INTs. He's also the team's leading rusher, gaining 784 yards on 5.6 YPC with 10 TDs. The rreat news for Philly fans is that RB Sanders, who gained 754 yards on 5.5 YPC with 7 TDs (while missing FIVE games), said on Friday the he will "Absolutely" play on Sunday! The Eagles have the NFL's top rushing attack at 159.7 YPG. Heisman-winner Smith has 64 catches (14.3 YPC / 5 TDs), fellow WR Watkins has 43 catches (15.0 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Goedert checks in with 56 catches (14.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Philly has excellent balance to its offense but will NOT have it easy vs a Tampa Bay defense allowing 20.8 PPG (5th) and one that ranks 3rd in allowing a modest 92.5 YPG on the ground.

Despite allowing 51 points in Week 18 to Dallas, the Philly D comes in allowing 22.6 PPG. However, one Tom Brady, has completed 67.5% for 5,316 yards (a career high), with 43 TD passes (tops in the NFL) with only 12 INTs. Fournette (812 yards on 4.8 YPC with 8 TDs) has taken over as the Bucs' featured back plus added 69 catches with two TDs. The bad news for Tampa Bay is that it won't have WRs Godwin (98 catches / 5 TDs) , who is injured, or Antonio Brown (fill in your own personal adjective here!). That duo combined for 14 catches, 136 yards and a touchdown in the Oct 14 win in Philly. However, Brady will have WR Evans (74 catches  with 14 TDs) and Gronk (55 catches / 6 TDs), despite missing five games.

Clearly, the overwhelming edge in experience for the game belongs to the Bucs. It's the playoff debut for first-year Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts, while Brady has nearly twice as many career playoff wins -- 34, an NFL record -- as Hurts has NFL starts (19). Brady is 34-11 in the postseason, including 20-4 at home. All that said, the passing game is already minus Godwin and A.B, plus RB Jones (428 yards) is out with an ankle injury and Fournette's hamstring injury makes him a game-time decision. 

If one remembers, the Bucs won but DID NOT cover in a wild card game last season at Washington and while this is a home, not a road game, I see the same scenario on tap. Hurts is no Brady but he can change a game with his running ability and I'm betting the Bucs will 'sweat' this game until the final gun. Or, like back in Week 6, the 'backdoor' may get left open! Take those points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills split their two regular season meetings (the visiting team won both games) and the two AFC East rivals are set for a rare third meeting (in the same season) on Saturday night in Orchard Park, NY. When's the last time the Pats and Bills squared off in a playoff game? If you guessed Dec 28, 1963, you win a lollipop. The then-Boston Patriots and the Buffalo Bills tied for the AFL's East Division title with records of 7-6-1 and met to decide which team would advance to the AFL championship game against the then-San Diego Chargers (11-3). The Pats dominated the Bills at War Memorial Stadium in Buffalo and then went on to take on the Chargers at San Diego's Balboa Stadium. The Pats should have saved themselves the trip, as the Chargers won 51-10. Fullback Keith Lincoln rushed for 206 yards on 13 carries, led the team with 123 yards in receiving, and completed a pass for 20 yards. Other than that, he was a non-factor. One last tidbit. The Chargers' 1963 championship win remains the ONLY major sports title for the city of San Diego, the longest drought for a major American city!

The Pats opened the season 2-4 but then won SEVEN in a row (also 7-0 ATS) but lost THREE of their last four. Still, this revamped New England team bounced back to make the playoffs for the 12th time in 13 seasons after finishing 10-7. The Bills were upset at home in Week 1 by the Steelers but then won four straight, before dropping FIVE of eight to sit just 7-6 after 13 games. However, Buffalo would end the season on a 4-0 run (3-0-1 ATS), averaging 30.0 PPG while allowing 15.0 PPG in that final stretch. Buffalo ended New England's 11-year reign as AFC East champions one year ago as the Patriots finished 7-9 in their first season without Brady, and have now added a second AFC East title in finishing 11-6.

Mac Jones had the best season of any rookie QB, completing 67.6% for 3,801 yards with 22 TDs and 13 INTs. His top receiving targets are WRs Meyer (83 catches / 2 TDs) Bourne (55 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Henry (50 catches / 9 TDs). It's noteworthy that all three played in each of the team's 17 games. RB Harris ran for 929 yards (4.6 YPC / 15 TDs) and fellow RB Stevenson ran for 606 yards (4.6 YPC / 5 TDs) The Pats do average 27.2 PPG (6th) but as always, Belichick-coached teams thrive on defense. 2021 was no different, as the Pats have allowed 17.8 PPG (2nd) on 310.8 YPG (4th).

Jones had a solid rookie season but he's not yet (may NEVER be!) Josh Allen. Buffalo's QB completed 63.3% for 4,407 yards with 36 TDs and 15 INTs, while adding 763 rushing yards on 6.3 YPC with 9 TDs. The top RB is Singletarty (870 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs), who also caught 40 passes. WRs Diggs (103 catches / 10 TDs), Beasley (82 catches but just one TD) and Sanders (42 catches  / 4 TDs) make up a sweet trio plus TEs Knox (49 catches / 9 TDs) and Davis (13.5 catches / 15.7 YPC! / 6 TDs) are a terrific duo. The Bills average 28.4 PPG (3rd) but the defense is even better than New England's, leading the NFL in points allowed (17.0 per game) and total defense (272.8 PPG).

There is no doubt that the Bills are the better team on paper but the game is NOT played on paper. In fact, the weather report may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Pats and head coach Belichick, who isn't attending his 'first rodeo!' Consider the following.

New England used an unorthodox and weather-altered game plan to win at Buffalo 14-10 back on Dec 6 in snowy and windy conditions. Jones attempted a franchise-record-low three passes and totaled 19 yards as Damien Harris' 111 rushing yards paced the Patriots' powerful run game to a victory. In the rematch on Dec 26 in Foxborough, Allen got his revenge after completing 30 of 47 passes for 314 yards and three TDs in Buffalo's 33-21 triumph. Now to Saturday's third part of the 'trilogy.' The weather conditions appear more likely to be similar to those of the first meeting in Buffalo. Forecasts are calling for bitter cold temperatures in the single digits at the time of kickoff. I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Georgia at 8:00 ET.

I'm not sure that most wanted to see Alabama and Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game at Indianapolis on January 11. Alabama took apart Georgia 41-24 in last month's SEC title game and the one-sided nature of the contest dulled excitement over a possible second meeting. However, after Alabama eased past Cincinnati 27-6 in its CFP semifinal and Georgia destroyed Michigan 34-11 in its semifinal, an all-SEC rematch is what's 'on the menu' Monday night. The Crimson Tide are defending champions and are looking for their FOURTH title in eight seasons under the CFP format. Coach Nick Saban has won SIX national titles at Alabama and seven overall. One of the CFP titles was a 26-23 overtime victory over Georgia in the 2017 championship contest. That came in Kirby Smart's second season at the helm, after his stint as Saban's defensive coordinator at Alabama.

Georgia was the nation's best team all season, entering the SEC title game against Alabama 12-0 (Georgia's sixth 12-win season, three under Smart) and with a defense that had allowed just 6.9 PPG (hadn't allowed more than 17 points in any game). However, Alabama put up 536 total yards against the 'impregnable' Georgia defense, led by eventual Heisman winner Bryce Young. The Alabama QB passed for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. WR Jameson Williams had seven receptions for 184 yards and two scores, as Alabama easily dissected the vaunted Georgia defense.

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett threw for 340 yards with three TDs (but two INTs, including a "pick-6") but was overshadowed by Young. However, he was outstanding against Michigan, completing 20 of 30 for 313 yards with 3 TDs and not a single INT. Georgia TE Bowers (52 catches / 16.3 YPC / 12 TDs) had 10 catches for 139 yards (one TD) vs Alabama and then five catches for 55 yards (one TD) vs Michigan. Georgia's running game has two good but far from great RBs in White (772 yards / 5.3 YPC / 10 TDs) and Cook (651 yards / 6.1 YPC / 7 TDs). Then again, Georgia is averaging 39.4 PPG, so the offense is doing something right. That Georgia "D" that was humbled by Alabama, returned to form vs Michigan, holding the Wolverines to 11 points (Michigan's lone TD came with 4:25 left in the game) and to just 91 rushing yards (Michigan entered the game averaging 223.8 YPG).

Young was well-deserving of the Heisman, completing 67.6% for 4,503 yards with 46 TDs and just 5 INTs (490 attempts). RB Robinson enters with 1,275 yards rushing on 5.1 YPC and 14 TDs. He was less than 100 percent vs Georgia (55 yards) but looked like 'Superman' vs an excellent Cincy defense, rushing for 204 yards. WR Metchie (96 catches / 8 TDs) was lost to injury vs Georgia (won't play here) but Williams has caught seven passes against Georgia and Cincy, giving him 75 on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with 15 TDs. Note that Williams had a combined 15 catches his previous two seasons at Alabama. Wanna bet against the possibility that Alabama may have "another Williams" on its roster just ready for primetime? The Alabama defense showed some vulnerable moments during the regular season but enters allowing 20.2 PPG on 304.6 YPG. The Tide "D" came up with numeros "big plays" vs Georgia in the SEC title game and made Cincy's offense look like a 'Pop Warner' team (held the Bearcats to two FGs and 214 total yards).

OK, we all know that Saban has never lost to a former assistant in his time at Alabama (25-0) and Kirby Smart is 0-4 vs his former boss. That said, I remember watching that Alabama/Georgia game and the Bulldogs looked like the WAY better team in taking a 10-0 lead in the early second quarter. However, Alabama just 'exploded,' scoring 24 points before halftime. The Tide then opened the third quarter with a "pick-6," which broke Georgia's will. The Bulldogs are slight favorites, despite Alabama's overwhelming historical edges. My 'gut' says Georgia and that's my play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET.

A meeting of 9-7 AFC West rivals (the Chargers and Raiders) on SNF in the final game of the league's first 17-game regular season includes this kicker: the winner earns a spot in the NFL playoffs. The Chargers were 8-5 through 13 games but lost at home in OT to KC and then lost at Houston to the lowly Texans, 41-29, falling to 8-7. Los Angeles arrives in Las Vegas feeling pretty fortunate to be 9-7 (and still 'alive'), after beating the Broncos 34-13 in Week 17 at home. The Raiders were 5-2 coming off a Week 8 bye but then went in the 'tank,' losing FIVE of their next six games However, they closed with three consecutive victories, including a 23-20 nail-biter last week at favored Indianapolis on a last-second 33-yard FG. That sets the stage for the final regular season game of the 2021 season.

Justin Herbert had an excellent rookie season (4,336 yards with 31 TDs and 10 INT) but is having even a better season in 2021, as he is the AFC's starting QB for the Pro Bowl and has already set a franchise record with 35 TD passes (against 14 INTs). WR Allen has 100 catches (8 TDs) and Williams has 67 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), while RB Ekeker has 65 catches with 7 TDs. Ekeler also has 847 yards rushing, adding 11 TDs, while becoming one of the NFL's top all-purpose players.

Las Vegas QB Derek Carr will be in the 'spotlight' Sunday night. After the Chargers' 28-14 victory over the Raiders earlier this season, star Los Angeles defensive end Joey Bosa said of the Raiders' QB: "Great dude, great player ... but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down." Carr's chance to respond is Sunday night. He's thrown for 4,613 yards with a much more modest TD-to-INT ratio than Herbert (21-14). WR Renfro has 99 catches (7 TDs) but with Ruggs (24 catches with a 19.5 YPC thru seven games) lost to the tragedy of being involved with a deadly car crash, the Raiders are a little depth-shy at the WR position (Jones has 42 catches). TE Waller (53 catches) is Carr's favorite receiver, as he has caught more passes from Carr (243) than any other player in the QB's career. He could return and that would be HUGE!

I wouldn't argue that LA may be the better team but I REALLY like the Raiders in this spot. This has been a tumultuous season for the Raiders but they have shown staying power. The Raiders have overcome the resignation of head coach Jon Gruden, the Henry Ruggs tragedy (see above), the release of cornerback Damon Arnette following a video that included death threats and cornerback Nate Hobbs was arrested on a misdemeanor DUI charge. Add to that, the recent passing of former Raiders head coaching legend John Madden.

QB Derek Carr missed the Raiders' only playoff trip in the past 19 years with a broken ankle back in 2016 but note that he is just 72 passing yards away from breaking Rich Gannon's single-season franchise record of 4,689 set in 2002. My bet is he wins the 'battle' against the more heralded Herbert, which means the Raiders are playoff-bound. "Just win, baby!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals went into Dallas in Week 17 and won 25-22, clinching a playoff berth for the first time since 2015 (I had Arizona as my Game of the Month, just saying!). Arizona opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last 22-16 at home to the Colts in Week 16, had lost three in a row before last Sunday's win. The Cardinals can still win the NFC West title and earn a home playoff game, by beating the Seattle Seahawks. That is, if the 49ers can beat the Rams in LA. That's hardly far-fetched, as San Francisco has beaten Los Angeles FIVE straight times! As for the 6-10 Seahawks, they will finish with a losing record for the first time in the decade-long Russell Wilson/Bobby Wagner era. Seattle does come in off an outstanding effort, having snapped a two-game slide last weekend with a 51-29 victory over the visiting Detroit Lions.

Here's what to look for from Seattle on Sunday. Russell Wilson is back in "fine form,' as he threw four TD passes, while RB Rashaad Penny rushed for a career-high 170 yards and two scores. This is the last chance for Penny to make an impression on the rest of the NFL in a meaningful game before hitting free agency in the offseason. No RB has been more productive in the league since Week 14 than Penny, who has run for 481 yards during that stretch. Wilson checks in, having completed 65.2%% for 2,875 yards with 22 TDs and 5 INTs (QB rating of102.5). Three of his four TD passes last Sunday went to Metcalf, who has 70 catches on the season (12 TDs), pairing with fellow WR Lockett (68 / 15.8 YPC / 6 TDs) to form a terrific duo. Everrett (47 catches) is a solid TE. Bobby Wagner suffered a knee injury on Detroit's first offensive play and didn't return. The star linebacker said he hopes to play Sunday. Through a tough season, the Seattle defense has held together, allowing 21.0 PPG (10th).

Arizona QB Kyler Murray looked like the MVP favorite when he threw 17 TD passes (just five INTs) during the 7-0 start. However, he hurt an ankle in the final seconds of a 24-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 8 and missed three games and entered last week's game with just FOUR scoring passes in his previous four games. However, Murray completed 26 of 38 passes for 263 yards and two TDs plus also rushed for 44 yards. He's completing 69.0% on the season for 3,547 yards with 23 TDs and 10 INTs (100.9 QB rating), while adding 388 rushing yards and five TDs. WR Kirk has 75 catches (5 TDs) and AJ Green has 50, averaging 16.5 YPC with 3 TDs. Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs) remains on IR with an outside possibility of returning if the Cards reach Championship Sunday. Arizona has also received much-needed help from WR Antoine Wesley, who has caught three TDs over the past two games. RB James Connor (700 yards / 14 TDs) has missed two games with a heel injury and has been limited in practice this week. Chase Edmonds (592 yards / 5.1 YPC) rushed for a game-high 53 yards against the Cowboys before leaving with an ankle injury and is also questionable for Sunday's game. Overlooked most of the season, Arizona's defense has been terrific, allowing 20.5 PPG (5th).

Seattle comes in with NOTHING to lose but is looking to avoid being swept in a season series by the Cards for the first time since 2009. I realize Seattle's effort last week was only against the Lions, but the Seahawks scored on NINE scored straight possessions for the first time in franchise history. It was also the first time this season ANYONE in the league scored on nine consecutive offensive possessions! Arizona could get caught 'scoreboard watching,' as the 49ers/Rams also start at 4:25 ET. What's more, it's hard to ignore that Arizona has lost FOUR in a row at home. I'm a HUGE Russell Wilson fan and with just 125 yards passing, Russell can join Peyton as the only QBs with 3,000 yards passing and 20 TDs in each of their first 10 seasons. Pretty rarified air! I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U play is on SF/LAR Over at 4:25 ET.

The San Francisco 49ers opened the season 3-5 but have been able to win SIX of their last eight games to reach 9-7 as they visit the Rams Sunday afternoon at Sofi Stadium. The Los Angeles Rams opened 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row to fall to 7-4. Meanwhile, Arizona was 9-2 after 11 games, so the Rams seemed destined for at best, a wild card spot. However, the Rams enter this contest on a FIVE-game winning streak to get to 12-4, while the Cards have fallen to 10-5. Both the Rams and Cards have clinched playoff spots but the Rams will capture the NFC West with a win over the 49ers, or a loss by the Cards. As for the 49ers, they are in as a wild card if they beat the Rams but could also 'sneak' into the playoffs if the Saints lose on Sunday in Atlanta.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan, citing current key injuries, the COVID unknown and the general parity among the NFL's top teams, said this week the door is wide open this season for any playoff team to walk away with the hardware. "The goal to me is always: Just to get in," he professed. "Because if you get in, you got the shot. I've always felt like that, and it seems pretty strong this year, too." It's HARD to argue with him on this. The 49ers have won FIVE in a row against their longtime California rival and a SIXTH straight win could give them a psychological edge. A "W' would give the 49ers a third consecutive season-series sweep and a third straight win in LA.

Jimmy Garoppolo went 15-for-19 for 182 yards and two TDs in a 31-10 home win over the Rams in Week 10 but suffered a partially torn ligament in his right thumb in the Week 16 loss at Tennessee. He sat out last week's 23-7 home win over the Houston Texans, a game in which prized rookie Trey Lance threw for 249 yards and two TDs. Shanahan has indicated that Garoppolo (68.0% for 3,494 yards with 19 TDs and 10 INTs), if deemed healthy, would get the start against the Rams. It figures to be a game-day decision. Mitchell has 'saved' the 49ers' running game this season, gaining 878 yards on 4.7 YPC with 6 TDs. He's topped 100 yards rushing in TWO of the last three games (133 in Week 15 at Minnesota and 119 at home vs Houston in Week 17). Then there is WR Samuel, who has 51 rushing attempts for 320 yards (6.3 YPC) and 7 TDs, while snaring a team-best 73 receptions (17.9 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Kittle (66 / 6 TDs) is active and WR Aiyuk has 50 catches (14.4 YPC) with 5 TDs.

Matthew Stafford is sure happy to be out of Detroit, Stafford has completed 67.3% for 4,648 yards with 38 TDs and 15 INTs (QB rating of 103.5). The running game has been better behind Sony Michel (802 yards on the season), who has averaged 99.4 yards per game during the five straight wins. RB Darrell Henderson (688 yards on 4.6 YPC and 5 TDs) is on IR but Cam Akers could finally play after an offseason Achilles injury that was originally expected to cost him his season. WR Kupp leads the NFL in receptions (138), yards (1,829) and receiving TDs (15). Fellow WR Woods (45 catches / 6 TDs) remains on IR but second-year WR Jefferson has 48 catches on 16.1 YPC with 6 TDs (he caught just 19 passes as a rookie, playing in all 16 games!). TE Higbee adds 55 catches and 3 TDs. Cooper Kupp is in position to become the fourth player in NFL history to lead the league in receptions, yards receiving and touchdown catches. Only Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe and Steve Smith have won the triple crown. Kupp is also 12 receptions and 136 yards away from setting the single-season NFL records in both categories, although Kupp believes those potential achievements would deserve a big asterisk in a 17-game season. In the end, that's just a 'side story.'

Neither team's defense has played up to snuff this season, as both find themselves in the middle-of-the-pack. The 49ers will know by kick-off if the Saints have won or lost in Atlanta. If New Orleans lost, the 49ers are in the postseason, win or lose but if the Saints were to win, the 49ers would need to beat the Rams to play next weekend. The Rams could be scoreboard watching as well, as the Cards are hosting the Seahawks at the same time. An Arizona loss clinches the division for the Rams win or lose. In the end, maybe all these "what ifs" are NOT worth worrying about. I expect the Rams to want to win this game pretty badly and end that five-game losing streak. I also expect LA to score here and for the 49ers, whether they need to win or not, to score enough for this game to 'fly' over the number.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at *:15 ET.

The 7-7-1 Pittsburgh Steelers entered the weekend with the 11th-best record in the AFC, while the 7-8 Cleveland Browns (7-8) held the 12th position. In the AFC North, the 9-6 Cincinnati Bengals were in the lead and the 8-7 Baltimore Ravens held second place. However, the Browns and Steelers were scheduled for MNF, AFTER the other 30 teams played 15 games on Sunday. Now, as the Browns and Steelers get set to square off tonight at Heinz Field, Sunday's results have led to this scenario. The Browns have been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Steelers are still 'alive.' However, 'alive' means that to clinch a playoff berth the Steelers need to win tonight at home vs the Browns, then win next Sunday at Baltimore, PLUS they will need the Colts to lose at 2-14 Jacksonville next Sunday. Paraphrasing former President Bill Clinton, "It depends on what your definition of alive is?"

The Browns arrive in Pittsburgh having lost THREE of four, including dropping their last two by TWO points (at home to the Raiders in Week 15 and at Green Bay in Week 16).The Steelers can 'feel Cleveland's pain,' as they get set to host their longtime rivals having gone 2-4-1 over their last seven games. "If you're a Browns fan, you're frustrated," defensive end Myles Garrett (career-best 15 sacks) said. "If you're a Browns player, you're frustrated. If you have anything to do with us, you know that. We've had chances, we just haven't converted or capitalized. I can't tell you how frustrated we are or I am." Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield has come under fire for a subpar season in which he has 15 touchdown passes against 11 interceptions (his ratio was 26-8 last season). Mayfield was picked off FOUR times in the loss at Green Bay. Mayfield may be happy to be playing this game in the 'friendly confines' of Heinz Field, as he has been booed at home for the first time in his four-year NFL career.

Mayfield's "opposite number" is 18-year veteran Ben Roethlisberger. The two-time Super Bowl champion is in the homestretch of his 18th season and 'rumor has it,' that this will likely be Big Ben's final regular season home game. Roethlisberger ranks fifth in NFL history with 63,721 passing yards and eighth with 416 passing TDs. The 'talk' all season has been that he has NOTHING left, but Mayfield can only 'dream' of matching Big Ben's numbers in 2021. Roethlisberger has completed 65.2% for 3,373 yards (over 500 more yards than Mayfield has thrown for) with 20 TDs and just 8 INTs.

The Steelers beat the Browns 15-10 in Cleveland back on Oct 31, when they scored the game's final 12 points. Roethlisberger passed for 266 yards and the go-ahead TD. I really like Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, who became the first Browns head coach since Romeo Crennel in 2007 to lead the franchise to a winning season, going 11-5 in his very first year with the Browns (2020).  last seasonStefanski led the Browns to a 11–5 record, finishing third in the AFC North and clinching the Browns' first playoff berth since 2002. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers (at Pittsburgh) in a wild card game. This is a bitter rivalry and the Browns would 'LOVE' nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's chance at making the playoffs but Mike Tomlin, who arrived in Pittsburgh back 2007, has built quite a resume in his time with the Steelers. As the saying goes, "this isn't his first rodeo," while the same can be said regarding Big Ben. Steelers stay 'alive' and head to Baltimore with the hope of beating the Ravens, while 'rooting' for the Jags at home vs the Colts. First things, FIRST. Take the Steelers.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET.

The Arizona Cardinals opened the season 7-0 (were actually the last team to lose this NFL season) but after losing last Saturday 22-16 at home to the Colts (the team's third straight loss), the Cards check in at 10-5, giving them just the fifth-best record in the NFC. The Cards welcome the Cowboys to the desert, a team that has won FOUR in a row after crushing Washington 56-14 last Sunday night. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East and at 11-4, own tiebreakers over both the 11-4 Rams and Bucs, giving them the No. 2 seed behind only the 12-3 Packers.

Arizona topped 30 points in SEVEN of its first nine games but has hit that mark just ONCE in the past six contests. The Cardinals have scored 16 points or less in THREE of those games, including head-scratching losses 34-10 to the Panthers and 30-12 against the Lions. QB Kyler Murray looked like the MVP favorite when he threw 17 TD passes (just five INTs) during the 7-0 start. However, he hurt an ankle in the final seconds of a 24-21 loss to the Green Bay Packers in Week 8 and missed three games and now has just FOUR scoring passes in his last four games.

WR DeAndre Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), is out for at least the rest of the regular season with an MCL tear that required surgery. Kirk (69 / 5 TDs), Green (47 / 3 TDs) and rookie Moore (54) are all highly capable, but Moore did not play last week and is questionable again for this one. RB James Conner has just a 3.7 YPC average but has run for 700 yards with 14 TDs, However, an ankle injury kept him out last week (questionable for this one). The good news is that his backup Edmonds has returned last the two weeks running for 53 and 56 yards, plus added EIGHT catches vs the Colts (he's got 539 yards on 5.5 YPC). The Arizona defense has struggled at times recently but checks in allowing 20.4 PPG on the season (6th).

Dallas had a rough November, losing THREE of four games, but enters this game in Arizona on a four-game winning streak, with its defense holding opponents to 14.3 PPG. QB Dak Prescott has put up impressive numbers, completing 68.7% for 3,928 with 29 TDs and 10 INTS (he has missed just ONE of 15 games). However, he hadn't been nearly as good since returning from a calf injury in the eighth game. Prescott had thrown just five TD passes over his last five games, after tossing 20 over his first eight appearances. That ended vs Washington, as he threw for 330 yards with four TDs and zero INTs in the romp over, dare I say, the Redskins. WRs Lamb (74 catches / 7 TDs) and Cooper (60 catches / 7 TDs) plus TE Schultz (69 catches / 6 TDs) make for quite a receiving trio. RBs Elliott (899 yards on 4.3 YPC with 10 TDs) and Pollard (710 yards on 5.6 YPC with 2 TDs), give the offense a nice balance.

Trying to explain Arizoan's recent slump, head coach Kliff Kingsburyn opined, "That's what we've got to figure out. I don't have an answer to that, but it's untimely penalties, the snaps hitting the ground, missed kicks. I mean, it's just things that we had done well all year, but we're not doing well (now)." Murray (69.1% for 3,284 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs plus 344 rushing yards with 5 TDs) isn't much interested in the rhetoric when it comes to the slippage on his part or the Cardinals in general. "Me personally, I'm not panicking. I don't think anybody on this team is panicking," Murray said. "Yes, we've lost three in a row. The Rams lost three in a row, everybody was counting them out, the Chiefs (lost four of six). It's not a thing where it doesn't happen. This is the NFL; it's not easy."

A date on the road to end this slide is just what the doctor ordered for Arizona, as the Cardinals enter having gone 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 road games. Meanwhile, Dallas just clinched with that blowout win over hated-Washington and is 'ripe' for a major letdown. 10-5 Arizona needs help to overtake the 11-4 Rams in the NFC West but a win here is a MUST. I'm taking the near-TD worth of points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The KC Chiefs were 3-4 through seven games this season and the refrain was, "What's wrong with the Chiefs?" No one is asking that question now, as KC comes to Cincinnati on an 8-game winning streak (6-2 ATS), having clinched the AFC West for SIXTH consecutive years. The 11-4 Chiefs hold a one-game advantage over 10-5 Tennessee in the chase for the first-round bye and home field advantage that goes to the top seed. However, a real challenge awaits against the 9-6 Bengals, who only need one win to clinch their first AFC North title since 2015. QB Joe Burrow is coming off a franchise-record 525 yards passing in a rout of Baltimore in Week 16, completing 37 of 46 with four TDs.

Patrick Mahomes was asked how the Chiefs overcame a 3-4 start and said, "nobody held their head down. We knew there was a lot of season left and everything we wanted was right in front of us." Mahonmes looked 'mortal' in the early going but he's back to being 'Superman' in KC's eight-game winning streak. He comes in completing 66.1% for 4,310 yards with 33 TDs and 13 INTs. WR Hill (104 catches / 9 TDs) and Kelce (83 catches / 7 TDs) remain the league's best WR/TE duo in the NFL and both are 'good to go here,' after dealing with COVID protocols. However, as we saw last week, playmaking receivers for the Chiefs do not have to be named Travis Kelce or Tyreek Hill. Byron Pringle (34 catches / 5 TDs) caught SIX passes for 75 yards and two TDs in KC's 36-10 dismantling of Pittsburgh. The Chiefs have used multiple rushing threats this season, as starter Edwards-Helaire (517 yards / 4.3 YPC / 4 TDs) has been limited to 10 games and sustained a collarbone injury vs Pittsburgh and has been ruled out for Sunday's game. Williams (453 yards / 3.7 YPC / 4 TDs) has been KC's best backup. The KC defense has always been somewhat of a question mark, but it has allowed just 12.9 PPG during the team's eight-game winning streak and on the season, ranks 5th in allowing 20.4 points.

It's been quite a bounce-back season for Burrow and the Bengals, as Cincy went just 4-11-1 in Burrow's rookie season (he played just 10 games before being lost for the rest of the season to injry). However, the former No. 1 overall pick hasn't missed a game this season, completing 69.9% for 4,165 yards with 30 TDs and 14 INTs. WR Tee Higgins has been surging, posting 583 yards receiving in the last five games. Both Higgins (71 catches / 6 TDs) and rookie Ja'Marr Chase (68 catches / 10 TDs) have more than 1,000 receiving yards on the season. A third WR, Boyd, has 63 catches with 4 TDs and TE Uzomah adds 45 catches and 5 TDs. RB Joe Mixon ranks second among NFL rushers with 1,159 yards (has 13 rushing TDs plus adds 3 more on 35 catches). Speaking of defenses, Cincy's has allowed just 21.6 PPG (13th) this season, after allowing an average of 27.1 PPG over the previous three seasons.

BOTH teams have a lot on the line and I'm never too comfortable going against Mahomes but I REALLY like Burrow and all his 'weapons' plus the Cincy defense now gives the Bengals a real chance against the 'big boys' (lost here at home to the Packers by three points in OT!). Cincy comes in 8-4-1 as a home dog recently and I say "Eight is Enough" for KC. Upset alert but naturally, take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Featured Sunday O/U is on Mia/Ten Over at 1:00 ET.

Miami opened last season 1-3 but won NINE of its final 12 games (5-1 at home, losing only to KC), to just miss the playoffs at 10-6. Optimism was high entering 2021 but after a 17-16 win at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins lost SEVEN straight games. However, Miami has rebounded with a 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS run to become the first team in NFL history to win seven straight games and also lose seven consecutive games in the same season. The now 8-7 Dolphins can make the playoffs but they'll have to beat both the 10-4 Titans and 9-6 Patriots to close out the regular season.

Miami is in Nashville on Sunday to take on the Titans, who rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit in Week 16 to beat the 49ers 20-17 on Bullock's 44-yard FG with four seconds left. "We're not dead yet," Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel said of the Titans, who had lost three of their previous four games. Now, a win over the Dolphins would give the Titans their second straight AFC South championship.

Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa (70.1% for 2,339 yards with 15 TDs and 9 INTs) has made a living this year out of short and safe passes to rookie WR Waddle and TE Gesicki. Waddle has set the Dolphins rookie record for receiving yards with 941 on 96 catches and Gesicki. has 67 catches for 707 yards with two TDs. The Miami running game is a problem, as the Dolphins average only 86.6 YPG on the ground to rank 30th of 32 teams. The Miami D has allowed just 11.8 PPG in its seven-game winning streak and checks in allowing 21.0 PPG on the season to rank 10th.

The Titans haven't been the same since RB Derrick Henry was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill has had to shoulder more of the load, and he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of seven games since Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was hurt. Henry has not played since a 34-31 OT win at Indy. Tannehill has fallen off dramatically from the previous two seasons. He won the job during 2019 and wound up with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs (QB rating of 117.5). He then had a 33-7 ratio in 2020 with a 106.5 rating. His 2021 numbers? 15 TDs and 14 INTs and a QB rating of 84,8. Tannehill had not thrown for more than 191 yards in the three games WR Brown had been on injured reserve but the third-year receiver was activated off IR before last week's game and caught 11 passes for 145 yards with a TD. Tannehill threw for 209 with a TD and no INTs.

The backstory in this game is that Tannehill spent six seasons as Miami's starting quarterback, struggling with mediocre talent surrounding him (Tannehill had a 42-46 record as Miami's starting QB). However, with Tennessee, Tannehill has produced an impressive 28-13 record. The Dolphins are 'on fire' but winning here will be tough. Note that Miami has been very fortunate during its winning streak, the second-longest active run in the NFL, as the Dolphins have beaten just ONE team that does not have a losing record. That team is Baltimore, which is barely above .500 at 8-7, having lost FOUR in a row.

While some may see this as an 'under,' I expect Tannehill to come up with a HUGE effort vs his former team plus I expect Tua to make some 'noise' as well. This Over/Under is WAAAY too low. It's Goin' Over.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

What a difference a month can make. The Rams sat 7-1 at the close of October but would go 0-3 in November (had a bye week) and at 7-4, expected their only chance at a playoff berth was as a wild card. However, LA ripped off FOUR straight wins (while the Cards have imploded) and at 11-4, now own a one-game lead in the NFC West with two games to go and have already clinched at least a wild card berth. As for LA's Week 17 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens were 8-3 through Week 12 but welcomed the Rams to Baltimore on a four-game losing streak that dropped them to 8-7. The Ravens are currently one of FOUR, 8-7 AFC teams looking to secure the last wild card spot (Dolphins currently own the tiebreakers with two games left).

QB Matthew Stafford became suddenly inconsistent when the Rams lost November games to the Titans, 49ers and Packers. He 'stopped the bleeding' during much of the team's four-game winning streak but did throw three INTs in last week's win at Minnesota. However, the running game has been better behind Sony Michel (728 yards on the season), who has averaged 105.8 yards per game during the four straight wins. RB Darrell Henderson (688 yards on 4.6 YPC and 5 TDs) is out this week with a knee injury but Cam Akers is expected to make his 2021 debut after an offseason Achilles injury that was originally expected to cost him his season. Getting back to Stafford, one can't deny his numbers through 15 games, as he's completed 66.9% for 4,339 yards with 36 TDs and 13 INTs. His QB rating of 104.0 would be just his second plus-100.0 rating during his 13-year career. WR Kupp leads the NFL in receptions (132), yards (1,734) and receiving TDs (14). Fellow WR Woods (45 catches / 6 TDs) remains on IR but second-year WR Jefferson has 44 catches on 16.1 YPC with 6 TDs (he caught just 19 passes as a rookie, playing in all 16 games!). TE Higbee adds 49 catches and 3 TDs. The offense averages 27.7 PPG (6th) and the defense allows 21.7 PPG (16th).

While the Rams are looking to nail down a division title, the Ravens are on the opposite end of what the Rams are going through, losing their grasp on the AFC North lead and are suddenly in a mad scramble to make the playoffs. The Ravens are hoping to get Lamar Jackson back from an ankle injury that occurred during a Dec 12 loss to the Cleveland Browns. He was limited in practice Wednesday and even if Jackson does return, it remains to be seen if he can lean on rushing ability. His 767 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) lead all QBs. Here's a thought. If Jackson isn't 100 percent, keep him on the bench. Tyler Huntley replaced Jackson in that Cleveland game and went 27 of 38 for 270 yards with one TD and zero INTs (also ran for 45 yards). Then in a one-point loss at home to Green Bay, completed 28 of 40 for 215 yards with two TDs and zero INTs, while adding 73 yards rushing with two TDs. Can/could Jackson do better? Huntley missed the Cincy game (COVID) but is available today. The chief concern is a Baltimore defense that was torched last week for 525 passing yards by the Cincinnati Bengals' Joe Burrow, the fourth-highest single-game total in NFL history. The Ravens' defense has not only been hit hard by injuries, but it has been diminished by COVID-19 issues as well. Eleven Ravens did not practice Wednesday.

Here's the bottom line. The Ravens have lost TWICE this season by 'going for two' at the end of a game, instead of 'risking' OT. John Harbaugh's team is 0-2. Regrets? He 'may have a few" as Frank once sang. The Ravens are 5-2 at home plus are 2-0 ATS as a home dog this season. Take the home dog. Bow Wow!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 8:45 ET.

The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin has led Ole Miss to a 10-2 record, as the Rebels get set to face 11-2 Baylor, which won the Big 12 championship with a 21-16 victory over Oklahoma St. Without a doubt, this contest is one of the more intriguing New Year's Day Six bowls. Ole Miss entered its season finale (The Egg Bowl vs Miss St) with 9-2 record. The program had produced SEVEN career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. The Rebels' 31-21 over the Bulldogs gave them their first-ever 10-win regular season and with a Sugar Bowl win, would have the school's first-ever 11-win season. 

Baylor hired Dave Aranda, LSU's DC who helped the Tigers complete one of the best-ever, single-seasons in CFB history in 2019. LSU went 15-0 in 2019 and while Joe Burrow and the offense (48.4 PPG) got most of the accolades, Aranda's defense held opponents to just 21.9 PPG. His first season at Baylor suffered because of COVID (like many programs), as the Bears would finish 2-7. However, it was a 'New Day' in 2021 for Baylor which earned a trip to the Big 12 championship game where it held on to beat Oklahoma St, 21-16. It marked Baylor's third Big 12 title but first-ever by capturing a win in the championship game.

Baylor averages 32.5 PPG with a VERY balanced attack, as the Bears have averaged 216.0 YPG passing and 214.9 YPG on the ground. QB Bohannon is solid, completing 64.3% for 2,160 yards with 17 TDs and 6 INTs. He has added 303 yards, adding 9 more scores. RB Smith (1,429 yards on 6.2 YPC with 12 TDs) is a stud, plus fellow RB Ebner has 763 yards on 5.4 YPC with 2 TDs. The team's top WR is Thornton (61 catches / 15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) plus TE Sims has 31 catches with 6 TDs. Defense is an Aranda staple and Baylor enters having allowed 19.2 PPG.

Ole Miss QB Matt Corral announced before the Egg Bowl that he would enter the 2022 NFL Draft but he decided to play for the Rebels in this game, first (so many have opted out in similar situations). It's an understatement that Kiffin was thrilled and so was OC Jeff Lebby, who is headed to Oklahoma after this game. The two will have a chance to produce the kind of numbers the Rebels did in the regular season, ranking fourth in total offense at 506.7 YPG (35.9 PPG). Like Baylor, Ole Miss has great balance, passing for 281.9 YPG and rushing for 224.7 YPG. Corral has completed 68.4% for 3,339 yards with 20 TDs and 4 INTs, plus has run for 597 yards and 11 TDs. He is just one of only four FBS quarterbacks with 20 passing touchdowns and at least 10 rushing scores. RB Ealy has 703 yards rushing (5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and Conner has 605 yards (5.1 YPC plus 13 TDs. Ole Miss is the nation's ONLY offense with four rushers with at least 500 yards, as Parrish has 542 yards. WR Drummond (67 catches with 8 TDs) is the team's No. 1 receiving threat, but Corral has plenty of other options (targets). How about this? Ole Miss is also the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! The defense is allowing 25.0 PPG but that's down from the 38.3 PPG Kiffin's Rebels allowed in his first in Oxford last year.

Kudos to Aranda and this Baylor team but Ole Miss is 'playing in its backyard' here in the Sugar Bowl. Ole Miss is 12-2 in its last 14 bowl games dating back to the 1992 Liberty Bowl and 10-4 in bowls against current Big 12 members. The play is Ole Miss. "Hotty Toddy!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rose Bowl play is on Ohio St at 5:00 ET.

"The Granddaddy of them All" gets a terrific matchup in No. 6 Ohio St (1-2) playing No. 11 Utah (10-3). Ohio State had aspirations of playing for the national championship and will be 'on a mission' to make up for its 'disaster' against Michigan back on Nov 27, while Utah is playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time since joining the Pac-12 for the 2011 season. 

Let me take a quick look at the two teams. Ohio St was shocked at home Sep 11th by Oregon (lost 35-28) but then won NINE straight games, averaging 49.6 PPG. When the Buckeyes visited Michigan on Nov 27th, most rated Ohio St as CFB's 2nd-best team next to unbeaten Georgia. However, Michigan then played a 'game for the ages' and a week later, Alabama crushed Georgia in the SEC championship game. Utah was NEVER in consideration for a CFP berth, but the Utes do enter the Rose Bowl with SIX straight wins and NINE in their last 10 games.  Utah is clearly the Pac-12's best. However, the question is, what does that mean?

Utah's claim to fame is that the Utes pounded Oregon by margins of 31 and 28 points late in the season, the latter in the Pac-12 title game. However, let me state this unequivocally, Oregon is a fraud. Yes, the Ducks shocked Ohio St in Columbus but did absolutely NOTHING after that. Oregon's two losses to Utah exposed them as one. If one wasn't convinced, Oregon's pathetic performance in its bowl matchup with Oklahoma (Ducks trailed the Sooners 30-3 at the half), should have cleared up any doubters (note: I used Oklahoma as a LEGEND Play!).

Forget all the season stats on the two teams and yes, Ohio St has seen some key players 'opt out,' but look at the respective conferences of Utah and Ohio St. Pac-12 teams are 0-4 in the bowls, while the Big Ten was 5-0 until Georgia (arguably still CFB's best team), crushed Michigan last night.  Utah is 11-3 in bowl games under head coach Kyle Whittingham but has lost its last two, 38-10 to Texas in the 2019 Alamo Bowl and 31-20 to Northwestern in the 2018 Holiday Bowl. As noted above, this is Utah's first-ever Rose Bowl appearance and I'm betting the Utes aren't up to the challenge of this "big stage." A January appearance in Pasadena is hardly new to the Ohio St program, as the Buckeyes make their 16th Rose Bowl appearance on Saturday. Ohio St heads West with a chip on its shoulder and something to prove against a Utah team that's only claim to fame this season is that it is the best school from the worst Power-5 conference in CFB. Ohio St rolls.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma St at 1:00 ET.

The 51st Fiesta Bowl is a meeting of two teams that have never faced each other in football, when No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 9 Oklahoma State play on New Year's Day at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. Notre Dame just missed making the final four of the College Football Playoff, while Oklahoma State fell short by just inches thanks to a touchdown-saving tackle from Baylor that, if not made, would have won the Big-12 Championship Game for the Cowboys and given them a strong case for the playoff. That set-up gives the Fiesta Bowl a terrific matchup between two schools with something to prove. On the coaching front, OSU's Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has now led Okie St to 16 straight bowl appearances (more in a bit). As for Notre Dame, the ever-classy Brian Kelly jumped ship at Notre Dame for LSU, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to be coached by first-time head coach Marcus Freeman. 

Spencer Sanders (69.5% for 2,469 yards with 16 TDs and 12 INTs) is not a great QB but he also adds 543 rushing yards on 4.2 YPC with 5 TDs. RB Warren (1,134 / 4.8 YPC / 11 TDs leads a rushing game that averages 182.3 YPG, to give the OSU offense a nice balance (passing game averages 221.2 YPG). The Cowboys average 30.6 PPG which goes well with defense allowing just 16.8 PPG (8th) on 273.6 YPG (3rd). Notre Dame averages 35.3 PPG on offense and its defense allows a modest 18.3 PPG (10th) on 338.8 YPG. QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin transfer) has been OK but surely nothing special, completing 67.8% for 2,468 yards with 20 TDs and four INTs. RB Williams (1,002 on 4.9 YPC / 14 TDs) has opted to sit out in preparation for the NFL Draft, which will put a lot of pressure on Coan, who relies on TE Mayer (64 catches / 5 TDs) and WR Austin (42 catches / 18.6 YPC / 6 TDs. Note: The Irish running game will go up against an OSU rush D allowing 89.2 YPG (5th) without Williams.

Taking a closer look at the teams' schedules, we find that Okla St was 4-0 vs ranked teams until that last-second heartbreaker to Baylor in the Big 12 championship game. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has played a relatively weak schedule. Notre Dame's won 41-13 at then-No. 18 Wisconsin but note that the Badgers led 13-10 in the 4th quarter, before IMPLODING (ND scored the game's final 31 points!), The next weekend, Notre Dame lost at home 24-13 to Cincinnati. Notre Dame went undefeated the rest of the way but did they Irish really beat anyone of note? Trust me, they didn't. By the way, the Cincy team that beat them in South Bend was able to produce just 13 FDs and 218 yards against Alabama in Friday's Cotton Bowl! One last thing. Mike Gundy is 10-5 SU/ATS in bowls at Oklahoma St and is on a 5-0 ATS win streak in bowls. ND has played in seven NY6/BCS bowl games since 2000 and is 0-7 SU/ATS, getting outscored 263-102! Seems like any easy choice. Of course, there are NO sure things but I'm "all over" the Cowboys!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Georgia at 7:30 ET.

Friday night's Orange Bowl clash between No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Georgia is the very definition of a Marquee Classic. The only 'bigger' matchup we would have this season would be a national championship showdown featuring No. 1 Alabama vs the winner of this game. That seems likely, as the Crimson Tide are two-TD favorites over Cincinnati but then again...

To put it mildly, Jim Harbaugh's 'seat' was VERY 'hot' in Ann Arbor, as he began the 2021 season with ZRO victories over rival Ohio St and the same number of bowl victories since his first season on the job. However, Year 7 has been the breakthrough season Michigan fans had been expecting, as the Wolverines dominated Ohio St 42-27 back on Nov 27 and then in what could have been a "let down" situation, buried Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship game. So, it's been a 'Lucky' Year 7 so far for Harbaugh, as the Wolverines make their College Football Playoff debut when 12-1 Michigan faces 12-1 Georgia in the Orange Bowl on Dec 31 at Miami Gardens, Fl.

Kirby Smart has had much more success at Georgia than Harbaugh has had at Michigan, but the fact remains that the Bulldogs have yet to 'win the big one' during Smart's tenure. It looked like it was finally Georgia's 'turn' back in the 2017 season when Smart coached Georgia to its first SEC title since 2005, and only the fourth 12-win season in school history (1980, 2002, 2012). On December 3, Georgia was ranked No. 3 by the College Football Playoff Committee and played No. 2 Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day. Georgia rallied from a 31–14 first-half deficit, ultimately defeating Oklahoma 54–48 in double overtime, completing the largest comeback in Rose Bowl history. However, the Bulldogs went on to lose to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game 26-23, when Alabama freshman QB Tua Tagovailoa relieved Jalen Hurts and ended the game on a 41-yard TD completion to DeVonta Smith in overtime. Now, here in 2021, Georgia was the nation's best team all season, entering the SEC title game against Alabama 12-0 (Georgia's sixth 12-win season, three under Smart) and with a defense that had allowed just 6.9 PPG. You all know that result, as the Tide rolled over the Bulldogs 41-24. Alabama put up 536 total yards against the 'impregnable' Georgia defense, led by eventual Heisman winner Bryce Young. The Alabama QB passed for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. 

What we have here is a Michigan team on a roll and seeking its first national championship since 1997 and an embarrassed and angry Georgia team looking to bounce back off the Alabama loss and get a chance to play for the school's first national title since 1980, when it was led by Senator Herschel Walker! JT Daniels was supposed to lead the Bulldogs this season, but he was just never really healthy, as Bennett stepped in completing 64.1% for 2,325 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs. Georgia does not own a prolific passing attack, as TE Bowers (47 catches / 16.6 YPC / 11 TDs) is the only receiver with more than 30 catches. White (718 yards / 10 TDs) and Cook (619 yards and 7 TDs) are the top-two RBs but three more add between 243 and 317 yards. It all adds up to a rushing game averaging 194.8 YPG. Bottom line, Georgia is averaging 39.4 PPG, which works well with defense allowing 9.5 PPG (despite the 41 points allowed to 'Bama) on just 254.4 YPG (2nd).

Speaking of a balanced offense, Michigan passes for 228.1 YPG and runs for 223.8 YPG. Let me note here that last season's 2-4 Michigan team averaged 132.0 YPG on the ground. QB McNamara has had a solid season, completing 64.6% for 2,470 yards with 15 TDs and just 4 iNTs in 308 attempts. Freshman RB Hawkins has been great, running for 1,288 yards on 4.9 YPC with 20 TDs. Joining him is Corum, who has added 939 yards on 6.7 YPC with 11 TDs. There are no receiving starts on the Michigan roster, but the Wolverines enter averaging 37.7 PPG. Defensively, Michigan allowed 34.5 PPG on 434 YPG last season but it's a 'brand new season,' as this year's stop-unit has allowed just 16.1 PPG on 315.8 YPG.

At first blush, taking Michigan plus a TD (and a 'hook'?) seems tempting plus it's hard NOT to notice that the Big Ten enters Dec 31 a perfect 5-0 in the bowls, while the SEC, considered that nation's best conference for quite some time now, is just 2-4. However, when I look at this Georgia team, I see a defense that gave up 10 or fewer points NINE times, pitching three shutouts. In fact, the Bulldogs allowed nearly one third of their point total -- 41 of 124 -- in that 17-point loss to Alabama in the SEC title game. "It is new life, it is one game and you have to win to advance," outside linebacker Nolan Smith said of the national semifinal. "A lot of people watch Georgia football for a long time and a lot of people didn't get this opportunity that we have had, and now that we have it, we have to seize it." Georgia ranks seventh in scoring offense (39.4) and scored at least 30 in 11 straight games prior to the Alabama loss.

Georgia has extended its bowl streak to a nation-leading 25 in a row with this appearance and the bitter loss (humbling one) to the Crimson Tide is serving as motivation. I'm laying the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Cotton Bowl Showdown is on Cincinnati at 3:30 ET.

The 12-1 Crimson Tide (12-1) are coming off an impressive 41-24 over Georgia in the SEC championship game and are the No. 1 seed in this year's College Football Playoffs. This is 'old hat' for Alabama, as the Tide are making their SEVENTH appearance in the eight years that the current title-deciding format has been in place. Waiting for them in the Cotton Bowl (played at Arlington, Tx) will be 13-0 Cincinnati. The No. 4 Bearcats are the first non-Power 5 conference program to be selected for the College Football Playoff, breaking that proverbial 'glass ceiling.' Alabama "won it all" last season (52-24 over Ohio St) plus won the national title during the CFP era in 2015 and 2017, while taking a loss in the 2016 and 2018 title games. "There's a reason they've been in the playoffs seven out of the eight years," Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell said of Alabama. "This is not just a top-five program; this is THE top program." No doubt that it is a formidable challenge for Cincinnati, but the first step is overcoming the Alabama mystique. "Our players know who they're playing," Fickell said. "They know what (Alabama) is all about, what that program is all about. Now we have to try to find ways to humanize them and bring ourselves back into doing what we need to do. The reality is we're not the best team, probably. But that doesn't really matter, because on the 31st, it's really going to be about who is going to play the best." I think Fickell (did he really turn down the ND job?) has it "just right!

The Bearcats will rely on the nation's second-best pass defense (168.3 YPG) to contain Heisman Trophy-winning Alabama QB Bryce Young. Overall, the Cincy defense allows just 16.1 PPG (5th) on 304.9 YPG (8th). The offense is led by QB Ridder, who has completed 65.9% for 3,190 yards with 30 TDs and just 8 INTs (in 355 attempts). He's a dangerous runner, who has gained 371 yards with 6 TDs. RB Ford (an Alabama transfer in 2019) is outstanding, gaining 1,242 yards on 6.2 YPC with 19 TDs. WR Pierce leads with 50 catches (167.3 YPC / 8 TDs) and is joined by WR Scott (26 / 18.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and TE Whyle (25 / 6 TDs). Bottom line, the Bearcats have averaged 39.2 PPG to rank 8th in scoring.

The Heisman-winning Young has completed 68.0% for 4,322 yards with 43 TDs and just 4 INTs in 462 attempts. He was the Heisman favorite going into the SEC championship game but 'nailed it down' by passing for 421 yards with three TDs (zero INTs in 44 attempts) and ran for 40 yards, adding a 4th TD. John Metchie III (96 catches with 8 TDs) was one of two 1,000 yard receivers on the team (Jameson Williams is the other with 68 catches on 21.3 YPC with 15 TDs), but he's out with injury. RB Brian Robinson Jr. (1,071 yards on 4.8 YPC and 14 TDs) will be tested by going up against a Cincinnati defense that allowed just 3.3 YPC. The Alabama offense averages 42.5 PPG and while its defense has had some so-so efforts during the season, the unit enters this game allowing 20.2 PPG (20th) on 304.6 YPG (7th).

The team stats are pretty similar but of course, Alabama has done it while playing in the SEC, compared to Cincy, which plays in the ACC. I agree that it's hard to see the Bearcats winning this game outright but taking two TDs allows plenty of room for error. The Cincinnati defense has 18 picks (third in the nation in the regular season) and 37 sacks (tied for 19th). Overall, Cincinnati has forced 33 turnovers on the season. Does this tid-bit matter? The Crimson Tide are 5-1 in national semifinals, with the loss coming in the inaugural CFP in 2014. That 42-35 setback came against Ohio State, which had Fickell as its co-defensive coordinator. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl O/U of the Year is on ASU/Wisconsin Over at 10:30 ET.

The Wisconsin Badgers began the season ranked No. 12 in the AP preseason poll but opened 1-3. All looked lost but the Badgers put together a seven-game winning streak and all they needed to do was win at Minnesota in their regular season finale to clinch a berth in the Big Ten championship game. However, Wisconsin lost 23-13. The mood was bleak. Yes, 8-4 Wisconsin is making its 20th consecutive bowl appearance, but that seven-game winning streak had the Badgers craving a loftier bowl destination. However, the Badgers are now saying they are motivated to make amends as they enter the Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona State on Thursday. In contrast to Wisconsin's slow start, ASU opened 5-1 (lone loss was 27-17 at BYU) and was ranked 18th when it visited Salt Lake City to take on Utah. The Utes dominated the Sun Devils, winning 35-21 and the defeat was the beginning of a 3-3 finish that leaves the Sun Devils with the same record as the Badgers at 8-4.

QB Jayden Daniels accounted for 16 touchdowns (10 passing, six rushing) but didn't make the big impact he needed to declare for the NFL draft. He recently announced he will be back in 2022 after passing for 2,222 yards (with nine interceptions) and rushing for 670 yards. That's the good news for ASU. The bad news is that RB Rachaad White (1,006 rushing yards / 5.5 YPC / 15 TDs) is skipping the bowl game to prepare for the NFL draft and fellow RB DeaMonte Trayanum (402 rushing yards with six TDs) entered the transfer portal. That leaves Daniyel Ngata, who averaged 6.4 yards a carry while producing 286 yards and three touchdowns on the ground, as the lead back against Wisconsin.

Wisconsin dominated opponents defensively during the first six games of its seven-game winning streak, allowing a miniscule 44 points (7.3 PPG). However, in its final two games, the defense allowed 51 points. That said, the Wisconsin defense enters this game allowing just 16.4 PPG on 241.4 YPG (1st in the nation). You may remember Wisconsin QB Mertz making a spectacular debut back on Oct 23rd of 2020, completing 20 of 21 for 248 yards with five TD passes in the Big Ten's 1st game back after it initially had canceled the season. Well, that QB hasn't been seen since. In his last 18 games, he has just 13 TD passes and 15 INTs. RBs Allen (1,109 yards / 7.1 YPC / 12 TDs) and Mellusi (815 / 4.7 YPC / 5 TDs) headline a running game that averages 215.3 YPG (16th), The Wisconsin offense isn't pretty but it averaged 31.9 PPG in its seven-game winning steak and 25.8 PPG on the season.

I won't be even a little surprised if the Wisconsin offense bludgeons the ASU defense, which also saw CBs Chase Lucas and Jack Jones opt out of the contest to prepare for the draft. "Obviously, the regular season didn't end the way we would've liked it," Wisconsin head coach Paul Chryst said. "But I go back to (the fact that) this group truly does enjoy each other. They care about each other, and we've got one game that we can play and one more opportunity. I think for all those reasons, it means a lot to them." I'm with Paul and while ASU will definitely be short-handed with its running game, I expect QB Daniels to play with a 'chip on his shoulder' with something to prove against the Wisconsin defense. ASU avenged 29.7 PPG on the season and if the Sun Devils can get between 14 and 21 points, I expect this game to 'fly' over the total. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Music City Bowl play is on Tennessee at 3:00 ET.

The 8-4 Purdue Boilermakers and the 7-5 Tennessee Volunteers meet in Thursday's Music City Bowl from Nissan Stadium in Nashville. It sets up as a clash of styles, as Tennessee's up-tempo offense goes up against Purdue's defense. The Purdue defense has lost George Karlaftis and on offense, WR David Bell, who caught 93 passes this season with 6 TDs. The Vols lost RB Evans to the transfer portal (headed to Louisville) but his absence in no way compares with Bell's loss for Purdue.

Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and went 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee. Heupel (an outstanding QB for Oklahoma) has helped Hendon Hooker develop into a true dual-threat QB. He took over as the starter Sep 18 and went 6-4 as a starter throwing 24 TD passes with only two interceptions. His season stats are 69.0% for 2,567 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs plus ran for 561 yards with 5 TDs. His running, along with Small (612 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Evans (525 yards / 6.5 YPC / 6 TDs) give the Vols an average of 211.6 YPG (20th). Tennessee averages 247.1 YPG giving it great balance and average 38.8 PPG (39th). Two WRs have 50-plus catches in Tillman (57 / 16.3 YPC / 9 TDs) and Jones (52 / 13.9 YPC / 6 TDs). More in a bit.

Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, the Boilermakers have won eight games this season, including wins over then-No. 2 Iowa (24-7) and then-No.3 Michigan St (40-29). Fifth-year senior QB Aidan O'Connell led the Big Ten completing 73.5% of his passes and has completed 74% or better in SEVEN straight games. He enters this game with 3,178 passing yards (23 TDs / 8 INTs) but as noted, will not have WR Bell here. That;s BIG deal, especially when one notes that Purdue's running game is basically non-existent, averaging 84.2 YPG (127th). The Purdue defense allows just 20.5 PPG (22nd), a full SEVEN points less than Tennessee's.

Let me start with Purdue. The program has been known as a 'giant killer' and as noted above, produced wins over Iowa and Mich St in 2021. What's more, QB O'Connell was at his best against top competition, averaging 433.7 yards, completing 75.3% of his passes and throwing nine TDs with no interceptions in games against Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State. However, Tennessee is hardly a 'big fish,' but rather a team in search of an eighth win. That said, head coach Josh Heupel can become just the sixth Volunteers' coach all-time to win eight or more games in his debut season. 

Getting back to QB Hooker, he has climbed UT’s record book, but in a steady way that matches his even-keeled personality. Hooker is first in completion percentage (69%) and passing efficiency (182.16), sixth in total offense (3,128 yards), seventh in TD passes (26) and 12th in passing yards (2,567) in a single season in UT history despite starting only 10 games. His method involves consistency and poise. His 182.15 passer rating led the SEC and ranked third nationally. He has thrown at least one TD pass in 11 straight games, tied for the fourth-longest streak in school history. With due respect to O'Connell, I think Hooker gives Tennessee the edge at QB and it's no small matter that this game is being contested in Nashville. The Volunteers not only score fast, they have outscored opponents 169-44 in the first quarter this season.

I'd love a repeat of that here! Tennessee has won FOUR straight bowl games, all against Big Ten opponents, and is 11-5 all-time against Big Ten teams in bowls.

Here's what I wrote when taking Tennessee over Kentucky back on Nov 6. "The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here at Kentucky and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game." The Vols beat Kentucky that day 45-42, lost to Georgia (no surprise) but beat South Alabama and Vandy. Now, to complete my earlier "prediction," the Vols need to win and of course, cover! That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on Oklahoma at 9:15 ET.

The 10-3 Oregon Ducks and the 10-2 Oklahoma Sooners meet Wednesday in The Alamo Bowl at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The Ducks are hoping to reach 11 wins for the EIGHTH time in school history, while the Oklahoma Sooners look for an 11-win season for the SEVENTH time in the last nine years. Both schools will be playing under an interim head coach, as Oregon's Mario Cristabol left Eugene for "South Beach" (Miami-Fl) and Lincoln Kennedy left Norman for the "Bright Lights of Hollywood" (USC). Assistant coach Bryan McClendon will coach the Ducks while the Sooners have decided that former head coach Bob Stoops, is the right man for this "ONE-game" coaching opportunity.

Oregon shocked then-No.3 Ohio St 35-28 back on Sep 11 in Columbus and entered the last few weeks of the season 9-1 and ranked No. 3. However, Oregon lost 38-7 at then-No.23 Utah on Nov 20. Two weeks later in the Pac-12 championship game (Dec 3 in Las Vegas), the No. 10 Ducks were again dominated by No. 17 Utah, 38-10. Oregon is led by QB Anthony Brown, who has completed 63.7% for 2,683 yards with 15 TDs and 6 INTs, while rushing for 637 yards (4.5 YPC / 9 TDs). RB Dye has 1,118 rushing yards (5.8 YPC / 15 TDs) and also leads the team in receptions with 41. Just ONE receiver has more than 30 catches in Williams (35 / 15.9 YPC / 4 TDs). Oregon averages 31.4 PPG and allows 25.5 PPG.

Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 team in the preseason poll and QB Spencer Rattler was the Heisman-favorite. The Sooners began 5-0 as they got set to meet Texas in the annual Red River Showdown on Oct 9. However, while Oklahoma was ranked No. 6, the Sooners were HUGE underachievers up to that point. Take away a 76-0 win over Western Carolina and the Sooners were 0-4 ATS, beating Tulane by five points (at -31.0), Nebraska by seven points (at -22.5), by three points over West Va (-17.5) and Kansas St by six points (-12.0). Texas jumped out to a 28-7 1st-quarter lead but after Rattler was replaced by Caleb Williams, who threw for 212 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) and ran for 88 yards (1 TD), as Oklahoma outscored Texas 32-7 down the stretch for a 55-48 win. Rattler was benched and Williams would complete 62.5% for 1,670 yards with 18 TDs and 4 INTs (he's run for 408 yards on 4.7 YPC with 6 TDs. RB Brooks has run for 1,111 yards (6.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and five receivers have 30-plus catches (Mims has 30 catches with a 21.6 YPC average and Haselwood leads with 39 catches and 6 TDs). Oklahoma averages 38.4 PPG and allows 25.3 PPG.

Oklahoma was 9-0 when it lost 27-14 at then-Nov 13 Baylor on Nov 13 and after a home win over Iowa St, lost again 37-33 at then-No. 7 Oklahoma St on Nov 27, costing them a berth in the Big 12 championship game. Both schools come off disappointing finishes to the regular season and as noted above, each will have an interim head coach for this game. Oregon was able to convince most of their departing coaches to stay for this game but almost all of the key figures have jobs lined up so they’ll have divided attention. The good news for Oklahoma was that it was able to pull Bob Stoops out of mothballs to lead this team. While he may not fully be involved in game-planning, he should have this team ready to play. Incoming coach Brent Venables was able to keep one of the more important assistants in OL/Running Game coach Bill Bedenbaugh who should keep this offense on track for QB Caleb Williams. Which team will 'Remember the Alamo?' My bet is Oklahoma.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pinstripe Bowl play is on Maryland at 2:15 ET.

The 6-6 Maryland Terrapins and the 6-6 Virginia Tech Hokies meet Wednesday in the Pinstripe Bowl from Yankee Stadium. Maryland opened 4-0 but needed to win its final game of the season (40-16 over Rutgers) to get its sixth win. Va Tech opened the season with a 17-10 home upset of preseason No. 10 North Carolina and was 3-1 but then lost FOUR of its next five games.Like Maryland, the Hokites needed a win in their final game to become bowl eligible. The Hokies did just that, beating in-state rival Virginia 29-24 on the road. It was an emotional win for Va Tech, which had fired head coach Justin Fuente after a 5-5 start. J.C. Price was named interim head coach and will coach the Hokies again in this one.

Maryland is led by QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who has completed 68.4% for 3,595 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs. His top targets are WR Jarrett (56 catches / 5 TDs) and TE Okonkwo (49 catches / 5 TDs). RB Fleet-Davis (664 yards on 5.5 YPC with 8 TDs) is the only player with more than 300 yards rushing, as Tagovailoa doesn't get much help from his running game which averages 130.7 YPG (94th). The defense is allowing 32.4 PPG (105th) but I'll have more on that later.

Va Tech QB Burmeister completes just 55.7% for 1,961 yards with 14 TDs but only four INTs. RB Blackshear has 711 yards rushing (5.9 YPC / 6 TDs) for a running attack that averages 190.6 YPG (35th). Burmeister adds to the rushing game, gaining 521 yards on 4.5 YPC and 2 TDs. Va Tech has traditionally been known for its defense and this year's unit is solid, allowing 22.9 PPG (42nd).

These two former Atlantic Coast Conference foes will face off for the first time since 2013 in the Pinstripe Bowl. Maryland left the ACC for the Big Ten after the 2013 season and hasn't seen the Hokies since. Third-year Maryland head coach Mike Locksley is putting extra value on the bonus practices the Terps are getting. He'll aim to use those to prepare for next season. Playing in a bowl is a big deal for the Terps. This is the first time Maryland has gone to a bowl game since 2016 and hasn't won a bowl game since the 2010 Military Bowl.

Meanwhile, this game marks a period of transition for Virginia Tech. Former coach Justin Fuente was fired in November after a 5-5 start in his sixth season. Two weeks later, the Hokies announced the hiring of Brent Pry, Penn State's former defensive coordinator who was an assistant at Virginia Tech early in his career. However, leading the Hokies in this game will be interim coach J.C. Price, a Virginia Tech graduate who coached the Hokies' defensive line this past season. He finished the regular season 1-1, getting Virginia Tech bowl-eligible for the 34th time by beating rival Virginia in the regular season finale.

Bowl experience helps but the Hokies will be short-handed, as QB Braxton Burmeister has entered the transfer portal after starting in all 12 games, leaving junior Connor Blumrick and freshman Tahj Bullock to try and fill the void on short notice. Also opting out of playing in the bowl for Virginia Tech are its top-two pass catchers, Robinson (44 / 5 TDs) and Turner (40 / 3 TDs). The Tech offense, even against a weak Maryland defense, will have trouble matching points up against the dangerous Tagovailoa,

Here's the rub. Maryland is in over its head in the Big Ten and lost 51-14 to Iowa, 66-17 to Ohio St, 34-16 to Minnesota, 31-14 to Penn St, 40-21 to Mich St and 59-18 to Michigan. However, the Terps went 6-0 in its other six games, beating West Va, Howard, Illinois, Kent St, Indiana and Rutgers. I put Va Tech in the class of that second group, NOT the first! Terps roll.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Liberty Bowl play is on Miss St at 6:45 ET.

The 6-6 Texas Tech Red Raiders will take on the 7-5 Mississippi St Bulldogs Tuesday in the Liberty Bowl. Matt Wells is in his third season with Tech, after leading Utah St to bowls in FIVE of his six years with the Aggies. However, his Texas Tech teams went 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons, before becoming bowl eligible in 2021 at 6-6. Mike Leach is the head coach at Miss St but knows Texas Tech VERY well. He was hired in 2000 and fired in 2009, amid allegations of abusing players (I'll leave that alone). What he did do was WIN, taking the Red Raiders to bowls in each of his 10 seasons in Lubbock. He was hired at Washington St in 2012 and after a 3-9 first season, led the Cougars to bowls in SIX of the next seven seasons. He moved on to Texas Tech in 2020 and went 3-7 amid COVID but got a bowl invite, anyway, eking out a 28-26 win over Tulsa in the Armed Forces Bowl. This year's team became bowl-eligible the old-fashioned way, winning seven games.

Texas Tech opened the season with a 38-21 win over Hoston, which wouldn't lose again until the AAC championship game at Cincinnati (13-0 and in the CFP). QB Columbi took over at QB when Tyler Slough was lost to an injury. He's completing 64.2% for 1,291 yards with 5 TDs and 5 INTs. The running game is below average, rushing for 150.8 YPG (7th). The defense allows 32.1 PPG and is particularly poor against the pass, allowing 265.6 YPG (118th). That spells bad news when facing Miss St.

Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense has a perfect QB in sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 75.1% for 4,449 yards with 35 TDs and eight INTs. Rogers has thrown for over 300 yards in 11 of his 12 games (lone exception was 294 yards vs NC St in a 24-10), topping 400 yards in four of them. The running game averages a woeful 63.9 YPG (130th) but RB Marks (388 yards and 6 TDs) is second on the team in receptions (79 for 3 TDs). WR Polk has 98 catches (9 TDs). The defense allows 25.3 PPG (56th) and just 331.3 YPG (ranks 22nd).

The Red Raiders are just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs SEC schools and 7-15 ATS in their last 22 neutral-site contests. Miss St entered its final game of the season, the Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss, on a five-game ATS winning streak, before losing 31-21 to an Ole Miss team that just completed its first-ever 10-win regular season (This just in,,,Ole Miss is pretty good). Miss St owns wins over NC St (finished 9-3 and currently ranked 18th), then-No. 15 Texas A&M, then-No. 12 Kentucky and then-No. 17 Auburn on its resume. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders don't have a SINGLE win all season over a team in the same class as those four teams Miss ST beat. One last thing. Leach believes he was treated VERY unfairly by Texas Tech back in 2009 and that memory is still pretty 'fresh.' The phrase goes, "Give me Liberty (Bowl) or Give me Death!" Expect Leach (led by Rogers) to hand out some 'death' to Texas Tech on Tuesday. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun was hired in Dec 2006 to take over for the retiring Fisher DeBerry, who in 23 seasons led the Falcons to 12 bowls (12 in his 1st 19 years, before falling off his final four). Calhoun "never missed a beat,' leading Air Force to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. Back-to-back 5-7 seasons followed in 2017 and '18 before an 11-2 season in 2019. COVID pretty much wiped out the school's 2020 season (3-3) but this year's team is 9-3 as it gets set to meet Louisville in the First Responder Bowl, played in Dallas at Gerald R Ford Stadium (SMU's home field). Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield was at Appalachian St when it moved up to FBS status in 2014 and went 7-5 that first season. He then led App St to four straight bowl appearances, winning the first three, before resigning before the New Orleans Bowl in 2018 to take the Louisville job. The Cardinals went 8-5 in 2019 (won the Music City Bowl over Miss St) but fell to 4-7 in 2020. The 2021 season was an up-and-down one but at 6-6, the Cards are back to being bowl eligible.

The Cardinals' offense revolves around dual-threat QB Malik Cunningham, who has completed 62.0% for 2,734 yards with 18 TDs and 6 INTs. He has also run for 968 yards on 6.0 YPC with 19 TDs. He has been responsible for 37 scores and is the ONLY player in the nation who has both rushed and passed for more than 15 TDs. RB Mitchell adds 722 yards on 4.7 YPC (5 TDs), as Louisville averages 211.8 YPG (19th). That would be an impressive stat, but Air Force runs for 341.5 YPG, tops in the nation. QB Daniels has thrown for only 932 yards (5 TDs / 3 INTs) but is the team's second-leading rusher with 698 yards on 5.0 YPC with 9 TDs. Brad Roberts paces Air Force's rushing attack with 1,279 yards (4.6 YPC) and 13 TDs. Three more RBs chip in between 360 and 471 yards, averaging 6.1, 7.7 and 8.6 YPC.

Moving to the defensive side of the ball, Louisville allows 27.0 PPG on 402.5 YPG. In stark contrast, Air Force has allowed 19.1 PPG (13th) on 288.8 YPG (5th). Louisville has faced EIGHT bowl-bound teams this season, going just 2-6, while allowing 33.0 PPG. Meanwhile, the 9-3 Falcons came pretty close to going 12-0 and playing for the Mountain West Conference title. Their three losses were all one-possession defeats, by a total of 17 points. Trends favoring Air Force are Louisville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral-field contests, while Air Force is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games. Air Force's HIGHLY underappreciated defense and its relentless ground attack (which will keep Cunningham on the sidelines) will be too much for Louisville to handle.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured Sunday O/U (NFC East O/U Game of the Year) is on Was/Dal Over at 8:20 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys were not on the field Thursday night but when the Titans edged the 49ers 20-17 on a FG with four seconds left in the game, Dallas became the second NFL team to clinch a 2021 playoff berth, joining the Green Bay Packers. The 10-4 Cowboys have a three-game lead over the 7-7 Philadelphia Eagles in the division race and can clinch the NFC East with a victory over the visiting 7-7 Washington Football Team on Sunday Night Football. The Dallas/Washington rivalry is among the most intense in the NFL and the two teams meet for the SECOND time in a three-week span. Dallas led that Week 14 game in Washington 24-0 at the half but despite forcing FOUR turnovers and Washington losing starting QB Taylor Heinicke to an injured knee (left and didn't return), the Cowboys needed to hang on for a 27-20 win.

Heinicke didn't play Tuesday night in Washington's 27-17 loss at Philadelphia but he's back here. He's proven himself this season, completing 66.5% for 2,931 yards with 19 TDs and 12 INTs. He needs 69 yards passing for 3,000 on the season plus has run for 297 yards on 5.4 YPC. Pass-catching RB McKissic (43 receptions ranks second on the team) is out, which means Washington could really use RB Gibson (862 rushing yards with 5 TDs) on the field. However, he had just 26 yards on 15 carries in Tuesday's game and has missed practice time with a toe injury during the week. If he can't go, rookie Patterson will get the call, but he's carried the ball just 41 times with a 3.8 YPC average. WR McLaurin (63 catches / 13.6 YPC / 5 TDs) is Washington's lone receiver of note, with Humphries and Carter (each has played all 14 games) combining for 59 catches with only three TDs.

Dallas had a rough November, losing THREE of four games, but enters this quick turnaround vs Washington having just completed a 3-0 three-game road trip. Dallas has allowed an average of 14.3 PPG during the winning streak, forcing four turnovers in each contest (first time Dallas has done that over a three-game stretch since 1994!). QB Dak Prescott has put up impressive numbers, completing 68.5% for 3,598 with 25 TDs and 10 INTS (he has missed just ONE of 14 games). However, he hasn't been nearly as good since returning from a calf injury in the eighth game. Prescott couldn't get himself going in the first meeting with Washington two weeks ago. His pick-6 in the fourth quarter gave Washington a chance to tie after trailing by 19 with less than six minutes remaining. In fact, Prescott has thrown just five TD passes over the last five games, after tossing 20 over his first eight appearances. RB Elliott (862 yards / 4.3 YPC / 9 TDs) has been saying his ailing right knee is getting better, but he's now on a six-game streak with a per-carry average below four yards. With 51 yards against the Giants, he ended a five-game run below that mark. That said, he needs 123 scrimmage yards to join LaDainian Tomlinson as the only players to with at least 1,250 scrimmage yards and eight touchdowns in each of their first six seasons (not bad company). Zeke's RB partner is Tony Pollard (676 yards on 5.7 YPC) and he needs just 52 scrimmage yards for his first season with at least 1,000. WRs Lamb (70 catches / 6 TDs) and Cooper (53 catches / 6 TDs) are both healthy and TE Shultz has 61 catches with 5 TDs.

Yes, the Dallas defense is playing great, but Washington could very well come into this contest with almost no running game to speak of and will be forced to throw. Yes, Dak has not had is "A-game" for a month, but Prescott is 4-0 with 11 TDs (nine passing / two rushing) and no interceptions at home against Washington. The last time the Cowboys were at home was Thanksgiving Day, when they lost 36-33 to the Raiders in OT. Dak threw for 375 yards and two TDs in that one and I'm expecting Dak and the Dallas offense to 'wake up' here vs the hated-Redskins (slip of the tongue) and put up some impressive numbers. Washington and Heinicke will HAVE to score to keep up. This one is Goin' over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The Buffalo (8-6) came up short in a 14-10 loss to New England on a snowy and windy night on Dec 6 at Orchard Park, NY but following the Bills' 31-14 win over Carolina, and New England's 27-17 loss at Indianapolis last weekend (that snapped a 7-0 run SU & ATS by the Pats), the AFC East division is back in play this Sunday. A Buffalo win over the 9-5 Patriots would return the Bills to the top of the AFC East standings entering the final two weeks of the regular season, as a victory would give Buffalo a superior division record over New England. As for the Pats, they will be looking to bounce back from their first loss in over two months (see above). The post-bye week loss dropped the Patriots to the No. 2 seed in the AFC, behind the Kansas City Chiefs, and then they dropped to No. 3 Thursday night after the Tennessee Titans defeated the San Francisco 49ers to move to 10-5. The Patriots can clinch a playoff berth through a few different outcomes this weekend, but more importantly, they can lock up the AFC East with a win and a Miami loss on Monday night.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has completed 65.2% for 3,734 yards with 31 TDs and 12 INTs, while adding 555 yards rushing (6.2 YPC and 4 TDs) With three TDs passing last weekend, Josh Allen increased his season total to 31 in becoming Buffalo's first player with 30 or more TDs passing in consecutive seasons. However, Allen has committed a turnover in seven consecutive games over which he has nine interceptions and two lost fumbles versus 15 TDs (including one rushing). Third-year RB Devin Singletary had a career-best 22 carries and a season-high 86 yards rushing and a TD last weekend, giving him 633 yards on 4.7 YPC with 3 TDs on the season.  WR Stefon Diggs (82 catches / 1,007 yards / 8 TDs) joined Eric Moulds (2004-05) in becoming Buffalo's second player to top 80 in consecutive years. And with 1,007 yards receiving, Diggs joined Stevie Johnson (2010-12) as Buffalo's second player to top 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. However, WRs Cole Beasley (76 catches) and Gabriel Davis (29 / 16.2 YPC / 6 TDs) have been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list (they won't play). That said, vet WR Sanders (40 catches / 15.1 YPC / 4 TDs) practiced fully on Thursday in his bid to return to the team. TE Knox is having a terrific season with 44 catches and 8 TDs. Then there is the Buffalo defense, which is allowing 17.4 PPG (3rd) on league-low 287.9 YPG.

New England's rookie QB Mac Jones is completing 69.0% for 3,168 yards with 18 TDs and 10 INTs. The best completion percentage for a season by a rookie QB is Dak Prescott at 67.7% in 2016. Jones also needs one more game with a completion percentage of 70% to tie Prescott's rookie record (nine). He needs just two TD passes to become the 15th rookie to reach 3,000 yards passing and 20 TDs. He's hoping RB Harris (754 yards on 4.6 YPC with 9 TDs) will be available. He missed last week (hamstring) and was among eight Patriots players listed as limited on Thursday. WR Bourne 45 catches / 14.8 YPC / 5 TDs) was one of four Patriots who entered the week on the COVID-19 list. WR Meyers leads the team with 65 catches but averages only 10.2 YPC with one TD. TEs Henry (41 catches / 9 TDs) and Smith (27 catches / 1 TD) make quite a TE duo. Belichick again has an excellent defense, allowing 16.2 PPG (1st) on 307.5 YPG (3rd).

Allen was ineffective in the first meeting between these two in windy and wet conditions, while Jones was able to 'escape' with a "W" despite attempting only THREE passes. The weather will be MUCH nicer on Sunday and Jones will likely need to do MUCH more this time around, up against the NFL's top-ranked pass defense (allowing 175.6 YPG passing, 11 TDs with 17 INTs plus holding opposing QBs to an NFL-low 66.7 QB rating). "Revenge is a dish best served cold" and that's EXACTLY what I see in Foxboro on Sunday. The Bills get the "W" but of course, we take any points available.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cards at 8:15 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts opened the season 0-3 and 1-4, before winning SEVEN of their last nine (56-3 ATS) to climb back into playoff contention at 8-6. However, the Colts got some bad news on Thursday when the Titans kicked a 44-yard field goal with FOUR seconds remaining to rally from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the 49ers 20-17. The 10-5 Titans are now a win or a Colts' loss away from clinching their second straight AFC South title. At this moment, the Colts are one FIVE teams at 8-6. The Bengals would currently win the AFC North but the Colts (thru tiebreakers), currently hold down the AFC's No. 5 seed.

The Arizona Cardinals surprised with a win Week 1 at Tennessee and shocked the NFL world by opening the season with a 7-0 (6-1 ATS) start. I think being shocked is fair, as the Cards entered the 2021 season without a winning season since 2015 (five in a row!). However, the team's 7-0 start is a distant memory with how they have fared lately. The Cards are just 3-4 their last seven games, including back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles Rams and then a shocking 30-12 loss against the Lions (as 13-point favorites), who had the worst record in the NFL with only one win entering the game. The 10-4 Cards are tied atop the NFC West with the Rams but currently own the tiebreaker edge. The Rams are in Minnesota to play the 7-7 Vikings.

Carson Wentz's career seemed 'dead' but by coming to Indy, he was reunited with Frank Reich (now Indy's head coach), who was on Philly's staff when Wentz had his best seasons with the Eagles. He's completing 62.7% for 3,005 yards with 23 TDs and just 6 INTs. With all due respect to Wentz, the key to the Indy offense is second-year RB ' Jonathan Taylor. Taylor leads the league with 1,518 rushing yards on 5.6 YPC. No other RB is within 424 yards of him. He rushed for 170 yards and one TD against the New England Patriots defense in a 27-17 victory in Week 15. The Colts have relied heavily on Taylor in recent games. Through the first 10 games of the season, Taylor averaged 16.1 carries per game but over the last four, he has averaged 27.3 carries. Taylor has 17 rushing TDs plus two more on his 36 catches. The Indianapolis defense is allowing 21.4 PPG (9th), after allowing just 17 points in its last two games.

The Cardinals have gone from having the best record in the NFL two weeks ago to dropping to the No. 4 playoff seed in the NFC. QB Kyler Murray is completing 69.8% for 3,039 with 20 TDs and 10 TDS (he has also run for 5 TDs). However, he is showing signs of frustration in the last three weeks since returning from an injury, including losses in the last two games. He's thrown three interceptions and three TD passes against the Chicago Bears, Rams and Lions, while getting sacked seven times. In the back-to-back losses to the Rams and Lions, he has had one TD and 3 INTs, with QB ratings of 72.1 and 72.9. Against Detroit, he uncharacteristically rushed for just THREE yards on four attempts. One of his favorite targets, WR DeAndre Hopkins (42 catches / 8 TDs), is out for at least the rest of the regular season with an MCL tear that required surgery. Kirk (62 / 5 TDs), Green (46 / 3 TDs) and rookie Moore (54) are all highly capable, but Moore was absent from practice on Wednesday with an injury (?). RB James Conner has just a 3.7 YPC average but has run for 700 yards with 14 TDs. However, after he fought through an ankle injury against Detroit, he was listed as a non-participant in the team's injury report this week with a heel issue suffered against the Colts. The good news would be that his backup Edmonds returned last week and ran for 53 yards on just six carries. He has 483 yards on the season, averaging 5.9 YPC. The Arizona defense has allowed 30-plus points in THREE of its last five games but checks in at 20.3 PPG allowed on the season (5th-best).

Arizona can't clinch the NFC West with a win here, but the Cards can clinch a playoff spot (would be the team's first since 2015). The Colts enter playing very well but could be in a perfect "let down" spot after their 27-17 Week 15 win over the Pats, which snapped New England's SEVEN-game SU and ATS winning streak. I expect Murray to come up big and at this number, an Arizona "W" means a cover.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET.

The SF 49ers lost 31-17 at home to Arizona on Nov 7 but they have rebounded to win FIVE of their last six to reach 8-6. San Francisco currently owns the sixth-best record in the NFC, as the 49ers head to Tennessee on Thursday night. The Titans lost their Week 1 game at home to Arizona but then won EIGHT of nine. That said, the Titans 'limp' into this contest having lost THREE of four (lone win came 20-0 over the hapless Jags) but at 9-5, still lead the AFC South by one game over the Colts.

The 49ers have had huge injury issues in their backfield but still average 126.6 YPG on the ground (7th-best). Leading rusher Mitchell (759 yards on 4.6 YPC with 5 TDs) missed San Francisco's 31-13 victory over the Atlanta Falcons last Sunday due to a concussion and a knee injury. He has cleared the concussion protocol, and the 49ers are waiting to see whether the knee will respond and allow him to play. RB Jeff Wilson Jr. has had a late-season resurgence after a freak knee injury in the offseason sidelined him for the first half of the schedule. Wilson took some time to find his rhythm but is again running like the player who led San Francisco in rushing last season. He had 56 yards two weeks ago against the Bengals and then ran 21 times for 110 yards and a TD last week against the Falcons for his third career 100-yard game. QB Jimmy G was on the 'hot seat' early this season but comes in completing 67.4% for 3,172 yards with 18 TDs and 8 INTs. He's completing 70.2% with 10 TDs and 3 INTs during San Francisco's current 5-1 run. TE Kittle is back and has caught 28 passes the last three games (15.2 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Samuels has 61 catches (17.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus 269 rushing with 7 TDs.

The Titans haven't been the same since RB Derrick Henry was lost with a foot injury in Week 8. QB Ryan Tannehill has had to shoulder more of the load, and he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in THREE straight games and four of six since Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) was hurt. Henry has not played since a 34-31 OT win at Indy. Tannehill has fallen off dramatically from the previous two seasons. He won the job during 2019 and wound up with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs (QB rating of 117.5). He then had a 33-7 ratio in 2020 with a 106.5 rating. His 2021 numbers? 14 TDs and 14 INTs and a QB rating of 83.4. Tannehill has not thrown for more than 191 yards in the three games WR Brown (46 catches / 13.4 YPC / 3 TDs) has been on injured reserve. The third-year receiver is eligible to be activated off IR before this game, and Brown's return would give the Titans much-needed help in the passing game.

The Titans need to quickly push aside the disappointment of letting a 10-point lead get away last Sunday in a 19-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.The Titans have a one-game lead over Indianapolis in the AFC South and need any combination of a Titans win and/or a Colts loss will to clinch a second straight division title. This is the first of two straight home games for the Titans, with the red-hot Dolphins coming to Tennessee in Week 17. A win here is a BIG deal (the Titans draw the sad-sack Texans in Week 18) and I'm backing the home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Frisco Bowl-Part 2 is on North Texas at 3:30 ET.

Thursday's inaugural Frisco Football Classic was created after the regular season to help accommodate a game for every eligible team. Both the Texas Mean Green and the Miami-Ohio RedHawks finished their regular campaigns with 6-6 records with North Texas dominating previously unbeaten No. 15 UTSA at home on Nov. 27 to become bowl-eligible.

Both teams played on November 27, Miami at Kent St and North Texas at home against UTSA, which came to Denton 11-0 and ranked No. 22 in the CFP standings. Miami engaged in a shootout with Kent, kicking a FG with FOUR seconds left to send the game into OT. Kent St got the ball first and took a 48-41 lead. Miami then scored a TD as well but went for the win with a two-point try. It failed, giving Kent St the MAC East title and leaving Miami at 6-6. In stark contrast, North Texas CRUSHED the then-undefeated Roadrunners, winning 45-23 while rolling up 370 yards on the ground! North Texas opened its season 1-6 but finished by winning its final FIVE games both SU and ATS (will enter this game on a 6-0 ATS run!).

I'm going to 'cut to the chase' pretty quickly here. North Texas averages 246.0 YPG on the ground, third-best in the nation behind Army (286.9) and Navy (341.5). However, Army averages just 94.8 YPG through the air and Navy just 82.5 YPG. North Texas averages 194.5 YPG passing, giving the offense a nice balance. QB Gabbert (24 TDs and just 6 INTs) gives Miami an edge in the passing game but the RedHawks average just over 100 YPG less on the ground. Defensively, Miami owns a slight edge, allowing 23.8 PPG to North Texas allowing 27.5.

The site of this game is in Frisco, which is only about 35 miles from the North Texas campus in Denton. It's NOT a true road game for Miami but since Miami was 1-6 away from home this season, It's hard to back them as a small road favorite. What's more, Miami plays in a conference (MAC) that has been HUGE losers in recent bowl games. Entering the current bowl season, MAC teams were a combined 12-26 (.316) the last seven years (going back to 2014). Think the MAC is due for a turnaround? Four MAC schools have alraedy competed in the current bow season, losing all FOUR games (that's now a combined 12-30, .286), while allowing 46.5 PPG!

You tell me why Miami of the MAC is a small favorite over a Nortn Texas team, playing 35 miles away from home, on a five-game winning streak, as well as a six-game winning ATS streak?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Frisco Bowl play is on San Diego St at 7:30 ET.

UTSA (12-1) of Conference USA is in just its 10th season as an FBS program and is looking for its initial bowl victory. The school also has a chance to notch a rare 13th victory. The Roadrunners' opponent in the Frisco Bowl is San Diego State (11-2) of the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs are looking to win 12 games for the first time in the school's Division I history (school has had 11-win seasons) in 1969, 2015 and 2016. 

Jeff Traylor's first head coaching came when he was given the UTSA job in 2020. He took over a program that was 3-9 and 4-8 in the previous two seasons and led the Roadrunners to a 7-4 regular season in 2020, finishing 7-5 after a bowl loss to ULL. This year's team opened 11-0 and was ranked 22nd in the CFP standings, before losing 45-23 at North Texas on Nov 27. The score was shocking and the UTSA defense allowed a whopping 340 yards on the ground. Note that on the season, UTSA has allowed just 112.3 YPG on the ground to rank 13th, while allowing 23.6 PPG (44th). The offense is averaging 37.8 PPG (12th) with excellent balance. The team's passing game averages 254.3 YPG and the rushing attack averages 189.0 YPG. QB Harris completes 66.9% for 2,906 yards with 25 TDs and 5 INTs plus has run for 595 yards (5.4 YPC with 6 TDs). RB McCormick is a 'stud,' rushing for 1,479 yards (eight games over over 100 yards) on 5.0 YPC with 15 TDs. The top-two WRs are Franklin (73 catches / 11 TDs) and Cephus (69 catches / 6 TDs).

San Diego State does not possess the offensive numbers of UTSA, averaging 26.5 PPG. The passing game ranks 113th (159.2 YPG) but the running game is good, at 175.3 YPG (55th). Greg Bell has run for 999 Yards (4.5 YPC / 8 TDs), plus five others chip in between 158 and 312 yards. The only receiver with more than 30 catches is WR Matthews (47 / 7 TDs). However, the SDSU defense is top-notch, holding opponents to 19.5 PPG (17th) on 319.6 YPG (14th).

Both schools played in their respective conference championship games, UTSA bouncing back from its embarrassing loss to North Texas by beating Western Ky 49-41. As for SD State, the Aztecs lost 46-13 to Utah State in the Mountain West title game. That type of beating was a stunner, as San Diego State allowed 16 points or less or on SEVEN occasions this season. It's that SDSU defense that has me on the Aztecs here plus the fact that while UTSA is playing in just its third bowl game, this marks San Diego State's 11th bowl berth since 2020. Oh, did I forget to mention! 'Stud' RB McCormick? He set school records for rushing yards and TDs (see above) on his way to earning C-USA Offensive Player of the Year honors but has decided to miss Tuesday's bowl game, 'saving himself' for the NFL draft.The Aztecs get that elusive 12th win right here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET.

The 6-7 Minnesota Vikings will look to bolster their chances of making the playoffs when they visit the Chicago Bears on Monday night. Minnesota is among a crowded group of NFC teams that are chasing potential wild-card berths. The Vikings are coming off a 36-28 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and have THREE wins in their last five games. The Vikings will move up to the No. 7 spot if they beat the Bears on Monday night and they'll stay there if Washington loses Tuesday to the Eagles. The homestanding Chicago Bears enter the contest 4-9 and just looking for a bright spot in what has been a dreary season. The Bears have SEVEN of theri last eight. Rookie QB Justin Fields has offered glimpses of his potential but he also has endured growing pains in his first season out of Ohio State.

There are NO 'growing pains' for Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins, who is completing 66.9% for 3,569 yards with 27 TDs and 5 INTs (103.5 rating). RB Cook returned in Week 14 to run for 205 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh. He needs only 22 rushing yards to reach the 1,000-yard milestone for the third season in a row. He is averaging 119.7 yards from scrimmage (97.8 rushing, 21.9 receiving) in 10 games this season. WR Justin Jefferson (2,688) needs 68 receiving yards for the most in NFL history in a player's first two seasons in the Super Bowl era. He has 85 catches (15.2 YPC) and 8 TDs. WR Thielen has 64 catches and 10TDs but missed last week (he's questionable here). The Vikings average 26.5 PPG (9th) but allow 25.6 PPG (25th).

I referred to Fields earlier and he enters (in 11 games) completing just 57.6% for 1,585 with 6 TDs and 10 INTs. He did pass frpo 224 yards with two TDs plus ran for 74 more yards last week vs Green Bay but also threw two INTs. Chicago led the Packers 27-21 at the half but got outscored 24-3 in the second half. That game kind of sums up Chicago's 4-9 season. RB Montgomery has 608 yards on 4.2 YPC with 4 TDs and the Chicago receiving corps is very mediocre. The Bears average only 17.8 PPG (28th) and allow 25.5 PPG (24th).

There every reason to think Minnesota should win this game but I'm guessing MOST thought that the Bucs(at home) would beat the Saints! Final Score: Saints 9 Bucs 0! The Vikings nearly blew a 29-0 lead last week, hanging on by forcing an incomplete pass in the end zone on the final play. Minnesota has been wildly inconsistent this season, so how can one trust them? Note that the Bears have won FIVE of the last six meetings between these two "Black & Blue" division rivals. Want more? Cousins enter the NFL in 2012 and in his career with Washington and Minnesota, owns an 0-9 record on MNF. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the Cin Bengals at 4:05 ET.

Cincy QB Joe Burrow was limited to 10 games as a rookie and the Bengals finished 4-11-1. It was the franchise's 5th consecutive losing season, after being a playoff team, in SIX of seven seasons between 2009-15. The Broncos would go 5-11 in 2020, the team's FIFTH consecutive losing season as well, after winning the team's third Super Bowl ring in the 2015 season.

The Bengals were 7-4 after a 41-10 Week 12 win over Pittsburgh but then dropped the last two games (BOTH at home), 41-22 to the Chargers and 26-23 in OT vs the 49ers. The Broncos surprised most (all?) by opening 3-0, but promptly lost FOUR in a row. However, Denver has recovered to win FOUR of its last six and now matches the Bengals at 7-6. The Bengals are still right in the AFC North race (Ravens lead at just 8-4) but the Broncos are hardly a threat in the AFC West, as the Chiefs are 9-4, after winning FOUR in a row. That said, BOTH are in a jam-packed race for one of three AFC wild card spots.

Burrow comes in completing 68.8% for 3,483 yards with 25 TDs and 14 INTs (QB rating of 100.6). RB Mixon is having a creer season, rushing for 1,038 yards and 12 TDs, plus has 28 catches for two more scores. LSU rookie WR Chase (No. 5 overall pick) leads with 60 catches (17.3 YPC / 10 TDs) and Higgins is up to 57 catches (14.2 YPC / 4 TDs), having caught 20 pases the last three games, after missing two games. The third WR is Boyd (55 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Uzomah has 37 catches and 5 TDs. Cincy allows 22.5 PPG (17th) but note that's an improvement over the last seasons, when the Bengals allowed an average of 27.1 PPG.

Denver QB Bridgewater flies under the radar, completing 67.6 % for 2,954 yards with 18 TDs and 7 INTs. His WR group can't match Burrow's, with Sutton (48 catches / 2 TDs) and Patrick (42 catches / 4 TDs). However, TE Fant leads the team with 53 catches. Denver has two RBs with over 700 yards rushing, Williams (743 / 4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and Gordon (716 / 4.8 / 7 TDs), which gives Denver an edge in that department. The Broncos also own the edge defensively, allowing 17.5 PPG, 2nd-best in the entire NFL.

Two fumbled punts by Cincinnati returner Darius Phillips led to 10 first-half points for the 49ers last Sunday. A taunting call against Bengals safety Vonn Bell extended the second of those Niners drives, which ended in a 14-yard TD pass from Garoppolo to Kittle that gave San Francisco a 17-6 halftime lead. However, Burrow showed how much he's grown this season by leading two late 4th-quarter drives, both ending with a TD pass to Chase. The Bengals took the lead in OT with a FG but lost on a San Francisco TD.

As for Denver, after pregame tributes to WR Thomas, the Broncos, notorious slow starters, scored TDs on their first two drives. The first quarter ended with the Broncos holding a 14-0 lead, an 11-0 advantage in FDs and a yardage disparity of 135 to minus-1. The final was 38-10, as the Lions fell to 1-11-1 on the season. Both teams are 7-6 and the winner here would own the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage, although with some many teams in the mix, other tiebreakers may decide things. However, as I noted at the top, the Bengals still have a real shot at winning the division. After two back-to-back home losses, getting a road game, where the Bengals are 4-2, is NOT a bad thing. In the end, I also like Burrow over Bridgeater in 'crunch time.' That said, I don't expect there to be 'crunch time,' as the Bengals win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The 9-5 Tennessee Titans entered Week 15 in a three-way tie atop the AFC standings with four games remaining. They are battling the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs for the conference's top seed and only postseason bye. However, the Chiefs got an early start to the week winning in LA over the Chargers on Thursday, moving to 10-4. The Pats play Saturday at Indy, so the Titans could take the field needing to win to keep pace with those teams. Are the Titans really rooting for AFC South rival Indy to beat the Colts? Heading into Week 15, the 8-6 Colts are still within striking distance of the Titans (two back with four to go). As for the Steelers, they are just 6-6-1 and in last place in the AFC North. However, the division is still "up for grabs," as the Ravens lead at 8-5, with the Bengals and Browns at 7-6. QB Ben Roethlisberger still believes the Pittsburgh Steelers have what it takes to be a playoff team. However, time is running out to prove it.

RB Henry (937 yards / 10 TDs) has not played since a 34-31 OT win at Indy, which gave the Titans a 6-2 record. Tennessee won its first two games without Henry (up to 8-2) but then lost a shocker to the Texans and were humbled 36-13 by the red-hot Pats. A Week 13 bye helped, as did Tennessee's opponent in its Week 14 return. The Titans drew the Jags and won, 20-0. The running game struggles without Henry plus Tannehill has fallen off dramatically from the previous two seasons. He won the job during 2019 and wound up with 22 TDs and just 6 INTs (QB rating of 117.5). He then had a 33-7 ratio in 2020 with a 106.5 rating. His 2021 numbers? 14 TDs and 13 INTs and a QB rating of 84.5. The Tennessee offense and defense both rank 15th of the 32 teams. The Titans are averaging 24.9 PPG, while allowing 22.3.

The Steelers were 5-3 after eight games but have only one victory in their past five games, a 1-3-1 run that began with an embarrassing home tie against the Detroit Lions and continued in Week 14 (Thursday game) with a 36-28 road defeat to the Minnesota Vikings. The Steelers did storm back in that one, nearly erasing a 29-0, third-quarter deficit, but they ultimately fell short on the final play. They find themselves 11th in the AFC standings, although they are a mere half-game behind a pack of five teams that sit at 7-6. People have 'buried' Big Ben this season but he's completing 65.3% for 3,066 yards with 19 TDs and 7 INTs. Compare those numbers to Tannehill's? Rookie RB Harris may only average 3.7 YPC but he's run for 873 yards (6 TDs) plus caught 60 passes for another three TDs. Roethlisberger doesn't have a WR duo like Stallworh and Swan but the Pittsburgh receiving corps is solid. The Steelers have struggled offensively (20.9 PPG ranks 21st) and their defense is no longer an elite until (24.8 PPG ranks 22nd) but DON'T count them out in this one.

Yes, Tennessee can clinch the AFC South with a win here AND an Indy loss, which would also mean that the Pats, Chiefs and Titans would all remain tied atop the AFC at 10-4. However, a Pittsburgh win could really make things interesting in the AFC North, as Baltimore and Cincy are currently struggling plus the Browns have been ravaged by COVID. The Steelers have won THREE straight in the series, including a 27-24 victory last season but MORE importantly, Pittsburgh has gone 7-0 ATS in its last seven times as a home dog! Bow Wow!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Featured O/U is on the NJY/Mia Over at 1:00 ET.

The Jets drafted BYU's Zach Wilson No. 2 in the 2021 Draft, right after the Jags took Trevor Lawrence, hoping that he would develop into the franchise QB the team has been searching for the last few decades. The early returns? Not so good! The Dolphins are led by QB Tua Tagovailoa, who was the 5th overall pick in the 2020 Draft. Things are going MUCH better for Tua, as he and the Dolphins welcome the Jets to Hard Rock Stadium for this Week 15 contest. The 3-10 Jets have already been eliminated from playoff contention for a franchise-record 11th consecutive year, which is also the longest active drought in the NFL Meanwhile, the Dolphins are looking to extend their 5-0 SU & ATS winning streak to six games on Sunday.

The Jets opened the season 2-8, although both wins were shockers. They first beat the Titans 27-24 in OT (note: Tennessee is in a three-way tie for the AFC's best record with Kansas City and New England at 9-4) plus then beat the Bengals 34-31 as 11.5-point underdogs. New York's only other win this season has come 21-14 over the equally sad-sack 2-11 Houston Texans. Wilson has struggled, missing three games due to injury and compiling a 2-7 record in his nine starts. He is completing just 56.1 percent of his passes and has just six TD passes while getting intercepted 11 times in 285 attempts (QB rating is a pathetic 65.3). The Jets' running game is almost non-existent (84.2 YPG ranks 30Th) and on the season, New York's 17.4 PPG ranks 29th.

Miami opened last season 1-3 but won NINE of its final 12 games (5-1 at home, losing only to KC), to just miss the playoffs at 10-6. Optimism was high entering 2021 but after a 17-16 win at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins lost SEVEN straight games. However, Miami has rebounded with a 5-0 SU & ATS run. Tua regained the starting QB job (injury/poor play) and has led the team in the last four wins. In his team's last three games, Tua has focused on staying in the pocket (just nine rush attempts), completing 80% of his 105 pass attempts with five TD passes and just one INT.  Miami's running game is actually worse than New York's, averaging 79.2 YPG (31st)but Tua does have two impressive 'targets' in rookie WR Waddle (86 catches) and TE Gesicki (59 catches).

These teams met back in Week 11, with the Jets losing at home 24-17. However, total yards were about even, Mia had 388 to NY's 380, with Tua throwing for 273 yards and Flacco for 291. it's Wilson not Flacco here and while I don't expect the Jets to score too much vs a Miami defense allowing just 11.0 PPG during the team's five-game winning streak, I do expect them to approach their season average of 17.4 PPG, playing in the perfect weather of Miami. Meanwhile, Tua and the Dolphins should have NO problem moving (AND scoring!) against a New York defense allowing an NFL-worst 30.5 PPG on 397.8 PPG (31st of 32 teams). No reason NOT to think that the Dolphins won't top 30 points, meaning we don't need too much from the Jets to exceed this low O/U number. The play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Opener (LA Bowl) is on Oregon St at 7:30 ET.

Anyone ever think there would be a Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl? Well there is and the 7-5 Oregon St Beavers of the Pac 12 will take on the 10-3 Utah St Aggies, the newly crowned champions of the MWC, after they impressively beat San Diego St 46-13 in the MWC championship game back on Dec 4.

Utah State was just 1-5 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas State last December and introduced a new 'vibe' at the school, while QB Luke Bonner, who followed Anderson from Arkansas State, had a record-setting season (more in a bit). As for Oregon St, Jonathan Smith got his first head coaching gig with his alma mater back in 2018. Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers at QB, taking over midway through his redshirt freshman season in 1998 and maintaining the job through his senior season in 2001. As a junior in 2000 under Dennis Erickson, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history. The Beavers finished 11–1, a school record for wins, won a share of their first conference title in 36 years, and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. Smith went 2-10 in his first season at Oregon St, followed by a 5-7 year and a 2-5 year in the pandemic-season of 2020. However, his Beavers went 7-5 in 2021 and are in the school's first bowl since 2013.

Bonner has completed 61.2% for 3,560 yards with 36 TDs and just 11 INTs. His 36 TD pases are a school reord and he's just SEVEN passing yards shy of the record of 3,567 set by Jordan Love in 2018. He's got plenty of receiving targets in Thompkins (96 / 16.1 YPC / 9 TDs), Bowling (52 / 15.1 / 9 TDs), Wright (45 / 16.8 YPC / 11 TDs) and McGriff (34 / 12.1 YPC / 6 TDs). The running game features a two-back duo of Tyler (764 / 4.5 / 6 TDs ) and Noa (575 / 4.4 / 4 TDs). The offense is averaging 33.2 PPG (31st) and the defense is allowing 25.3 PPG (58th). Oregon St owns a dominating rushing attack (219.5 YPG to rank 13th), led by Baylor, who has 1,259 yards (6.0 YPC) with 13 TDs. Fenwick and Lowe combine for 778 yards (5 TDs) plus Colletto may only have 160 yards rushing but he's scored a team-high eight rushing TDs. QB Nolan has had a 'nice 'year' (63.5% / 2,414 yards / 19-9 ratio) but it is dwarfed by Bonner's numbers. OSU is averaging 32.8 PPG (35th) and allowing 25.9 PPG.

Oregon State finished third in its division in the Pac-12 and sixth overall in the conference but is a seven-point favorite over Utah State. That doesn't sit well with some of the Aggies, who are the champions of the Mountain West Conference and chasing the third 11-win campaign in program history. Oregon's St's "signature win" this season was its 42-34 home win over Utah, which is the Pac 12 champs (currently ranked 11th) and headed to the Rose Bowl for a showdown with Ohio St. I noted earlier that the Beavers are in a bowl game for the first time since 2013 but let me add that 2013 was also the last time this program posted a winning record. Utah St may be the underdog in this game but somehow I get the sense that OSU sees itself as the underdog and that a win could be just what Smith needs to get this program "back on track." The scoreboard said Utah St 46-13 over SD State but the stat sheet said Utah St had a modest 383-315 yardage advantage, while SDSU actually won the TOP battle. I see a 'let down' spot here for Utah St and believe Oregon St is favored by a TD for a reason. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

Kyler Murray was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 Draft and in his first two seasons, the Cards went 5-10-1 and 8-8. However, he and his team opened the current season 7-0 before losing to Green Bay in Week 8. More bad news followed, as Murray was sidelined with an ankle in Weeks 9-11, although the Cards were able to go 2-1. Week 12 brought a bye and Murray returned in Week 13 in a 33-22 win at Chicago (two TD passses / 2 rushing TDs). The 10-2 Cardinals can essentially put the NFC West out of reach with a victory, which would be their second over the 8-4 Rams this season. Each team has four games remaining after Monday.

Speaking of the Rams, they opened 7-1 but then lost THREE in a row, as the defense allowed a whopping 31.7 PPG. The Rams finally broke that streak last week with a 37-7 home win over the Jags but does that REALLY count. Speaking of injury, there have been reports that Matthew Stafford is playing through multiple injuries, although he has not admitted to being physically restricted.

Let's start with Stafford. Happy to be out of Detroit, Stafford is completing 66.7% for 3,611 yards with 30TDs and 9 INTs (QB rating of 106.3 would be a career-best), despite the running game is of little help (97.9 YPG ranks 24th). WR Kupp (100 catches / 11 TDs) has blossomed into a star and while Woods (45 / 4 TDs) has been lost for the season, second-year WR Jeferson has 39 catches (15.9 YPC / 5 TDs), after catching just 19 last season (he played all 16 games). Then there's the signing of OBJ, who HC Sean McVay says will be a significant part of the offense (three games: 9 catches / 2 TDs). TE Higbee adds 44 catches (3 TDs). The offense is just fine (298.0 PPG) but the defense HAS to show up!

Murray returned last week from a three-game absence because of an ankle injury and guided the Cardinals to a 33-22 victory over the Chicago Bears. He had a modest 123 yards passing on 11 completions, amid inclement weather, but threw for two scores while running for two more on 59 yards rushing. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins also returned from a three-game absence and had a TD reception as the Cardinals. Arizona's rushing game ranks eighth at 128.2 YPG. Hopkins has 37 receptions (14.0 YPC / 8 TDs) but Kirk leads the team with 50 catches. Vet AJ Green has been solid (35 / 15.8 YPC / 3 TDs) and TE Ertz (41 / 5 TDs) was a GREAT pickup from Philly. Plenty to love about the Arizona offense (28.6 PPG) but the team's HUGE improvement is due to a defense allowing just 18.7 PPG (4th)

On the face of it, Arizona looks like the better team (and it may be) but this a "win or else" game for the Rams, if they ANY intention of winning the NFC West. Let me note that the Cardinals are 7-0 on the road but just 3-2 at home. History is on LA's side, as the Cards haven't defeated the Rams at Arizona since 2014. Rams get the "W."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 4:25 ET.

The Buffalo Bills were 13-3 last season and played in the AFC championship game. Along with KC, they came into the season as one of the favorites to be in that AFC title game again, but the Bills are just 7-5 as they visit Raymond James Stadium Sunday afternoon to face the 9-3 Bucs, the defending Super Bowl champs. After losing at home 14-10 to the Pats last Monday, the 7-5 Bills trail the 9-4 Pats in the AFC East. New England is on its bye in Week 14, so a win moves the Bills to 8-5 and ONE game back, but a loss drops them to 7-6, TWO games back. That's a BIG difference with just four games remaining. Meanwhile, the Bucs can clinch the NFC South title with a victory over Buffalo and a loss or tie by both the New Orleans Saints (5-7) and Carolina Panthers (5-7). The Saints visit the New York Jets (3-9) on Sunday, while the Panthers host the Atlanta Falcons (5-7).

Buffalo's Josh Allen was terrific in 2020 and has been pretty darn good in 2021, although it doesn't quite seem like it. He's completing 65.7% for 3,216 yards with 26 TDs and just 10 INTs, while rushing for 422 yards with three TDs. RB Singletary leads the Bills with 495 yards (4.6 YPC / 2 TDs). The running is middle-of-the-pack, averaging 116.7 YPG (14th). Allen has a trio of dangerous WRs in Diggs (71 catches / 7 TDs), Beasley (63 / 1 TD) and the ageless Sanders (39 / 4 TDs). Buffalo's offensive numbers "took a hit" in the 14-10 loss to the Pats but the team entered averaging 28.0 PPG, 5th-best in the NFL.

 
Tom Brady saw plenty of the Bill in his 20-years with the Pats, posting a 32-3 record in 35 starts to hold the NFL record for most career wins by a QB against one opponent. He will get his first look at the Bills while wearing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform on Sunday and comes in completing 68.3% for 3,771 yards with 34 TDs and 10 INTs. He leads the NFL's top-scoring offense, with the Bucs averaging 31.4 PPG. RB Fournette has replaced Jones as the lead back, rushing for 665 yards (4.4 YPC / 7 TDs) and catching 58 passes. WRs Godwin (82 / 5 TDs) and Evans (57 / 10 TDs) are terrific plus TE Gronk is back, with 33 catches and 6 TDs in just seven games.

Here's the rub. Brady plays like he's in his late-20s but Buffalo does own the No. 1 defense in the NFL in yards allowed (272.3 YPG). Most importantly, the Bills have surrendered the fewest passing yards per game this season (165.3) and the fewest passing TDs (eight). This could be seen as a "Make or Break" game for the Bills, while the Bucs will easily cruise to the NFC South title. That said, the Bucs are surely interested in the NFC's No. 1 seed and they are in a 'dog fight,' one game back of the 10-2 Cards and tied with the 9-3 Packers, so I won't dismiss Tampa Bay's motivation here. Still, I view this as a "Must Win" for Buffalo and so far this season, the Bills have bounced back with big wins after their first four losses (yet to lose back-to-back games). The scores in this bounce-back wins have been 35-0, 26-11, 45-17 and 31-16. 

Take the points but I'm calling for an outright Buffalo win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Bal/Cle Over at 1:00 ET.

The Steelers survived a game-winning two-point conversion for the Ravens o in Week 12, holding on for a 20-19 win. Heading into Week 14, the AFC North looked like this, Baltimore was 8-4, Cincinnati 7-5 (off a humbling home loss to the Chargers), Pittsburgh 6-5-1 and the Browns 6-6 (Week 13 bye). The Steelers were the first AFC North team to play in Week 14, losing 36-28 Thursday night in Minnesota to fall to 6-6-1. The Bengals are set to host the 6-6 49ers in a 4:25 start and at 1:00 ET, the Ravens and Browns will meet in Cleveland. Baltimore just won 16-10 over visiting Cleveland in Week 12, a mere two weeks ago. Since the Browns had a bye last week, they now become the first NFL team in 30 years to play consecutive regular-season games against the same opponent. Seattle did it last in 1991.

The scheduling quirk has Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield feeling healthier as he's battled shoulder, foot, and knee injuries most of the season. The extended prep time can ONLY help the Browns, who have lost FOUR in a row against their division rival. Baker Mayfield led the Browns to a 10-6 record, as the team ended a 17-year playoff drought in 2020. He rebounded from a 2019 season in which he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs, by improving to a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland then recorded a 48-37 victory at Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game on Jan 10. However, Mayfield has not put up the same kind of numbers here in 2021 (like 2020), completing 62.2% for 2,413 with only 11 TDs and 6 IMTs. In fairness, the Browns may own the worst receiving corps in the NFL. However, despite on-and-off issues/injuries to Chubb (867 yards / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Hunt (381 yards / 5.0 YPC / 5 TDs), the Browns do check in with the NFL's third-best running game in the NFL (147.1 YPG). Defensively, the Browns are allowing 22.3 PPG (12th).

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense in general, have become mired in a slump.  Jackson has just three TD passes and six  INTs, not to mention 13 sacks taken, in his last three games. The Ravens have scored just 61 points in their past four games (15.3 PPG.). Jackson does have 762 yards rushing (5.8 YPC), allowing the Ravens, despite the loss of RBs Dobbins and Edwards getting hurt before the season started, to match the Browns in avenging 147.1 YPG on the ground. WR Brown has 65 catches (6 TDs) and TE Andrews has 64 (6 TDs). The Baltimore defense is allowing 23/5 PPP (16th).

In the Week 12 meeting, while Baltimore won, Jackson was BRUTAL, passing for just 165 yards with four INTs. As for Mayfield, he did little, passing for 247 yards with one TD (no INTs). More notably, Chubb and Hunt both played but the Browns ran the ball just 17 times for 40 yards, more than 100 less than the team's season average. Like with Mayfield, Chubb and a healthy Hunt are available Sunday and the bye week has been a HUGE help. I also expect Jackson to bounce back, after his terrible three-game stretch (see above). Expect Cleveland  to "open the playbook" off its bye and for this contest to comfortably 'Go Over' the number. Weather forecast for Sunday in Cleveland says; sunny and in the high 40s. Perfect football weather.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* ONE & ONLY Game of the Year is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

Jason Garrett was given MORE than enough time as the Cowboys' head coach but finally Jerry said "enough was enough" Mike McCarthy, who won a Super Bowl with Green Bay, was hired in 2020 and executions were high. It was a tough season with COVID for all teams but Dallas' season looked over when Dak Prescott was lost in Week 5 to season-ending injury. At 2-3, Dallas would lose FOUR in a row and six of seven. However, at 3-9, a three-game winning streak actually gave them a chance at the division title (at 6-9), entering Week 17. The Cowboys lost and finished at 6-10. The 'winner' of the NFC 'Least' last season was Washington, led by Ron Rivera (former Carolina head coach who led the Panthers to a 15-1 record in 2016 and into the Super Bowl, where the Panthers lost to the Broncos), despite only a 7-9 record. The Washington defense gelled at the end of 2020, allowing just 15.9 PPG in winning FIVE of its last seven.

Dak Prescott has come back healthy in 2021 (he has only missed one game), completing 69.0% of his pases for 3,170 yards with 23 TDs and eight NTs (101.7 QB rating). He's supported by the RB duo of Elliott (765 yards / 4.4vYPC / 8 TDs) and Pollard (602 yards / 5.6 YPC / 2 TDs). 2nd-year WR Lamb (57 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) and veteran WR Cooper (46 catches / 13.8 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Schultz (52 catches / 11.2 YPC / 4 TDs) are his main targets. Dallas is averaging 416.3 YPG (1st) and 29.4 PPG (3rd), while the Dallas defense is allowing 22.3 PPG, more than a full TD less than last season (29.5).

Ryan Fitzpatrick was hurt before the start of the season, leaving the starting QB job to Taylor Heinicke, who played college ball at Old Dominion, one of the nation's top FB programs. However, Heinicke has proven he can be a starting QB in the NFL, completing 67.9% for 2,809 yards with 18 TDs and 11 INTs. He has added 289 rushing yards (on 5.6 YPC). RB Gibson leads the team with 820 rushing yards but just 3.9 YPC (5 TDs). The team's only WR with more than 30 receptions is McLaurin (61 / 13.2 YPC / 5 TDs), as RBs McKissic (43) and Gibson (31) rank second and third on the team (note: the duo has combined for just 4 TDs plus both average below 10.0 YPC). Washington's defensive surge down the stretch in 2020 led to high expectations for the unit this season but Washington opened 2-6, with the defense allowing 28.4 PPG.

However, coming into this contest, the Cowboys have been the more inconsistent team. After opening 6-1 SU (7-0 ATS), Dallas is 2-3 SU and ATS its last five, after breaking a two-game slide with a 27-17 win at hapless New Orleans (Saints have lost FIVE straight!). Meanwhile, after opening 2-6, Washington has won FOUR straight (4-0 ATS), as the defense has found its expected form, allowing only 17.5 PPG. However, the offense remains below average, scoring just 20.5 PPG (20th).

HUGE game here, as Dallas can pretty much 'salt away' the division with a win (would move to 9-4, with Washington falling to 6-7), but of course, a Washington "W" means the team closes within one game of Dallas (7-6 to 8-5). Dallas had dominated this series by winning SEVEN of eight but Washington won both meetings last season, 25-3 at home and 41-16 in Dallas last Thanksgiving.

Yes, Dallas is playing a THIRD straight road game but Prescott and the Dallas offense owns a HUGE edge over Heinicke and the Washington offense, averaging 29.4 PPG to Washington's 20.4 PPG. Checking the defensive numbers show that while Washington is holding opponents to just 17.5 PPG its last four, the Dallas 'D' has greatly improved this season (see above). Dallas has won SIX of its last eight in Washington and has also gone 5-1 against the spread on the road this season. It's Dak over Taylor, as Dallas puts itself in a great position to win its division and get a first round playoff game at home (note: Would need a lot of help to get the overall No. 1 seed). Play the road favorite, which wins going away! "How 'bout 'dem Cowboys!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers survived a game-winning two-point conversion try by the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and with their 20-19 win, have turned the AFC North into a real 'horse race!' The Ravens stand at 8-4, while Cincy is at 7-5, after a crushing home loss to the Chargers. The Steelers are presently 6-5-1, plus the 6-6 Browns were idle last week. First-to-last is separated by just two games. Just as notable, Pittsburgh is just a half-game behind three 7-5 teams for one of three wild card berths. That makes this Thursday night visit to Minnesota, to say the least, VERY important.

As for the Vikings, they are second in the NFC North but at just 5-7, there is no realistic chance for them to catch the 9-3 Packers. That said, accepting that the 8-4 Rams will earn one of the three wild card berths, the Vikings only trail 6-6 Washington and San Francisco plus 6-7 Philadelphia. That means a "W" here by Minnesota, "keeps hope alive."

Let me do a little "compare and contrast," as I was asked to do in my Grade-7 thru Grade-12 years (no metal detectors or active-shooter drills to distract me). Big Ben and his two Super Bowl rings are headed to Canton but he is NOT the equal of Cousins here in 2021. Roethlisberger is completing 64.8% for 2,758 yards with 16 TDs and 6 INTs (QB rating of 90.6). As for Cousins, he's completing 68.4% for 3,353 yards with 25 TDs and just 3 INTs (QB rating of 106.3). Rookie Harris has 779 yards rushing on just 3.6 YPC with 5 TDs but the Steelers are averaging a pathetic 86.9 YPG on the ground (29th) on 3.7 YPC Minnesota RB Cook is one of the best RBs in the league but has struggled with injuries, missing three games and is questionable here. He's still rushed for 773 yards on 4.5 YPC with 4 TDs. Minnesota has managed 113.3 YPG on the ground (15th) on 4.2 YPC.

Pitt WRs Johnson has 76 catches (6 TDs) and Claypool 39 catches but just one TE. TE Freiermuth is underrated with 43 catches, six going for TDs, However, Cousins has two OUTSTANDING wide-outs in Jefferson (78 catches with 10 TDs) and Thielen (64 catches with 10 TDs), TE Conklin has 47 catches and 3 TDs. Defense was always a Pittsburgh strength but this year the team allows 23.8 PPG (21st), which is not all that much less than Minnesota's 25.4 PPG allowed.

A short week and a road game against a desperate Minnesota side is not what the doctor ordered for Big Ben and the Steelers. After back-to-back wins, including a 34-31 victory over Green Bay, Minnesota enters this contest having lost two in a row. Most recently it was a heart-breaking, last-second 29-27 setback at Detroit last weekend as a 7-point favorite, the Lions' first win of the season (that HAD to be a wake-up call!). Pittsburgh knows all about the Lions, as its home tie last month with 1-10-1 Detroit means even a win against the Vikings could leave Pittsburgh trailing the Chargers, Bengals and Bills in the wild-card standings by week's end.

After their last second win over the hated-Ravens last weekend, it would NOT be a stretch for the Steelers to have a predictable letdown in this one. Meanwhile, expect a full four-quarter, 110 percent effort from the Vikings. I'm laying the 'short' price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFC West Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The Seattle Seahawks find themselves in an unfamiliar position entering December. In the 10 seasons since the Seattle Seahawks drafted QB Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft, the franchise has been a regular contender, making the playoffs in EIGHT of the nine seasons prior to 2021 (played in two Super Bowls, winning one). However, when the 3-8 Seahawks play host to the 6-5 49ers on Sunday, they are little more than an also-ran with little to play for over the season's final six weeks. Conversely, the 49ers have won THREE in a row (while averaging 31.6 PPG) and currently own the 6th and final playoff spot in the NFC.

The 49ers' winning streak has come with a renewed commitment to run the ball. San Francisco has averaged 41.7 rushing attempts over the past three games to amass 178.3 YPG, as rookie RB Elijah Mitchell gained 133 of San Francisco's season-high 208 yards on the ground last week in a 34-26 victory against the visiting Minnesota Vikings. QB Jimmy G has been looking over his shoulder for most of the year but is completing 66.8% for 2,342 yards with 13 TDs and 6 INTs. However, the bad news for San Francisco is that the 49ers will be without leading receiver Deebo Samuel (groin), who has 56 catches (18.0 YPC / 5 TDs) and has also rushed for five TDs (203 yards on 8.1 YPC). "(Samuel has) been a big part of our offense, but I think we're in a spot right now that we can overcome that," 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said. Methinks, he's "whistling past the graveyard!"

Wilson (64.9% with 12 TDs and just 3 INTs) got hurt in a Week 5 loss to the Rams and didn't return until a Nov 14th 17-0 loss at Green Bay. Wilson threw for just 161 yards in his return with two INTs. However, while Seattle has lost his last two starts as well, he hasn't been intercepted in 57 attempts and passed for 247 yards with two TDs (110.6 QB rating) in last Sunday's loss at Washington. With starting running back Chris Carson out for the season due to a neck injury and Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer both missing the last game, the Seahawks signed veteran Adrian Peterson to the practice squad on Wednesday. The 'Hawks are averaging only 92.5 YPG rushing but Carroll is hopeful that Penny will return vs the 49ers. The good news is that Wilson looked good last week and he has two excellent WRs in Lockett (50 / 3 TDs) and Metcalf (47 catches / 8 TDs). Seattle's defense has allowed a league-high 399.0 YPG but only 20.5 PPG, which ranks 7th.

However, here's the rub. The Seahawks won 28-21 at San Francisco in Week 4, their 13th victory in 15 tries against the 49ers, including SEVEN of nine since Kyle Shanahan arrived in San Francisco in 2017. What's more, Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine as a home dog. Good enough for me. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 4:25 ET.

The 8-3 Baltimore Ravens lead the AFC North but have not been able to 'shake the 7-4 Bengals. The 6-6 Browns and 5-5-1 Steelers fill out the rest of the division. The Steelers looked like a contender at 5-3 but they welcome the hated-Ravens to Heinz Field on an 0-2-1 run. This is the first meeting between the two rivals in 2021, with the teams playing again at Baltimore in Week 18.

The Ravens enter December with the best record in the AFC, but their recent performances have been anything but pretty. Baltimore heads into the weekend a half-game ahead of the Patriots and Titans (both 8-4) for the top spot in the conference and. The playoff structure is the same as last season, meaning only the No. 1 seed gets a first-round playoff bye, so the Ravens certainly cannot afford many slip-ups over their final six games. QB Lamar Jackson (64.2% for 2,612 yards with 15 TDs and 12 INTs) is NOT having a vintage season, evidenced by him throwing a career-high four interceptions Sunday night in a 16-10 win over the Cleveland Browns. He also threw for a season-low 165 yards and was sacked multiple times for the ninth time in 10 games. However, he does lead the team in rushing (707 yards on 5.7 YPC) and is the reason the Ravens are No. 2 in the NFL averaging 150.7 YPG on the ground. His top receivers are WR Brown (60 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews ( 60 catches / 5 TDs). The defense is no longer a dominating unit (ala the Ray Lewis years) but Baltimore does rank 9th in allowing 21.8 PPG.

Big Ben is not the QB he once was but he can still be dangerous. He enters the game completing 64.6% for 2,522 yards with 14 TDs and 6 INTs. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 87.1 YPG (28th), although rookie RB Harris does have 708 yards with 5 TDs but averages only 3.6 YPC. He is also Pitt's second-leading receiver (52 catches / 2 TDs), behind WR Johnson (68 catches / 4 tDs). WR Claypool adds 37 catches (16.4 YPC / but just 1 TD) and TE Freiermuth adds 40 catches and a team-high 6 TDs.The offense averages only 20.4 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 24.3 PPG, which ranks 23rd. Pittsburgh is also just 29th in takeaways with only NINE.

The Ravens have averaged only 14 points over the last three games but have won two of them, while Pittsburgh's last three games have seen them tie Detroit 16-16 (Lions are 0-10-1 on the season), while allowing 41 points in back-to-back losses to the Chargers and Bengals. Jackson is a highly accomplished QB and this Pittsburgh defense may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Baltimore offense to shake its doldrums! The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against AFC North opponents, while the Steelers are just 2-8 ATS their last 10 following a SU loss. I'm on the road favorite.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET.

Washington was able to capture the NFC 'Least' last season with a 7-9 record but with Dallas jumping out to a 6-1 start and Washington opening 2-6, the Cowboys seemed like a 'lock' to win the NFC East in 2021. However, Dallas has lost THREE of four to fall back to 7-4, while Washington has won THREE in a row to reach 5-6. Washington looks to make it FOUR straight wins this week in Las Vegas against the Raiders, who are one of three AFC West teams that are currently 6-5. Kansas City, which has won FIVE straight division titles, leads the AFC West at 7-4, so clearly, that division is far from settled. Speaking of Dallas, the Raiders snapped a three-game skid by defeating the Dallas Cowboys 36-33 in overtime on Thanksgiving.

Washington eked out a 19-17 home win over the struggling 3-8 Seahawks this past Monday and now travels cross-country on a short week to play the team's final non-division game of the season (Washington's final five games will all come against NFC East rivals). Taylor Heinicke has proven he can be a starting QB in the NFL, completing 67.2% for 2,613 yards with 16 TDs and 10 INTs. He has added 279 rushing yards (on 5.7 YPC) with five TDs. RB Gibson leads the team with 712 yards (just 3.9 YPC) but Washington's running game has been solid, averaging 125.5 YPG (9th). However, the team's only WR with more than 25 receptions is McLaurin (58 / 13.6 YPC / 5 TDs), as RBs McKissic (43) and Gibson (26) rank second and third on the etam (note: the duo has combined for just 3 TDs plus both average below 10.0 YPC). Washington's defensive surge down the stretch in 2020 led to high expectations for the unit this season but the "D" has NOT delivered, allowing 25.6 PPG (25th of 32 teams!).

The Raiders piled up a season-high 509 total yards in their win at Dallas. Making that effort even more impe=ressive is the fact that the offense had been held to just 14.3 PPG in a three-game slide against the Giants, Chiefs and Bengals. QB Carr has completed 67.3% for 3,414 yards (more than 800 more than Heinicke) but he's thrown for just one more TD pass (17-9 ratio). However, Carr remains underrated. Say what? How about this. He needs just 22 completions to reach 300 in each of his first eight NFL seasons, something only Peyton Manning has accomplished. Injuries have limited RB Jacobs, who entered this season off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, while scoring 19 TDs. He's missed two full games (and been limited cn a number of others), running for only 420 yards  on 3.8 YPC with six TDs. The bottom line is, Las Vegas has run for just 89.1 YPG (27th). WR Renfrow (64 catches  with 4 TDs) and TE Waller (53 catches / 2 TDs) are Carr's favorite targets but Waller left the Dallas game with a knee injury (status uncertain). The Jon Gruden (head coach) and Henry Ruggs (WR) "incidents" have really messed up the Raiders, who are trying to make the playoffs for the first time in FIVE seasons. A defense allowing 26.8 PPG (30th) hasn't helped.

All that said, this marks the ONLY home game for the Raiders in a 4-week span and don't forget, it's an extremely bad situational spot for Washington, traveling cross-country on a short week. With FIVE consecutive NFC games coming up to end the regular season, this seems like a perfect "let-down" spot for Washington. This really is a "must win'' for the Raiders as the 6-5 Chargers are on the road vs a very good Cincy team, plus 6-5 Denver is at 7-4 KC. The Raiders really need to get to 7-5 with a "W" in this one. A win basically means a cover at this pointspread but my bet says the Raiders win handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Sunday Featured O/U is on NYG/Mia Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins will host the New York Giants on Sunday and welcome the Giants to Hard Rock Stadium on a FOUR-game winning streak that has followed a SEVEN-game losing streak. The Giants 'limp' into Miami 4-7, after a 13-7 home win over the Eagles last Sunday but are just 1-4 on the road.

The Giants have put up some impressive defensive performances recently, allowing just 15.2 PPG over their last five games but the offense will be without QB Daniel Jones. He was not cleared for contact after suffering a neck strain during last week's win over the Philadelphia Eagles and head coach Joe Judge announced he will not play in Sunday's game on Friday. Jones has completed 64.3% of his passes for 2,428 yards with 10 TDs and 7 TDs this season plus has rushed for 298 yards (4.8 YPC) and two TDs. Without him, the Giants running game (90.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC) will be even more limited. Starting in Jones' place will be Mike Glennon, who went 0-5 as a starter for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2020. His last win as a starting QB came during the 2017 season with the Chicago Bears. Glennon went 16-of-25 passing for 196 yards with a one TD and two INTs while playing in a blowout loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Oct. 10.

Miami has a poor running game as well averaging an even worse 80.2 YPG (31st) on 3.4 YPC. Much like the Giants, Miami's played excellent defense lately, allowing just 11.5 PPG during its four-game winning streak. However, the Miami offense has surged as of late, averaging 26.3 PPG. Tua is back healthy and the last two games, he's completed 84.4% for an average of 261.5 YPG passing with three TDs and just one INT in 64 attempts. Tua's top targets are rookie WR Waddle (77 catches / 4 TDs) and TE Gesicki (52 catches / 4 TDs).

Here's the rub. With both teams putting up strong defensive numbers, the opening Over/Under number was among the lowest this season. Now, with the news of Jones NOT playing, it has gone even lower. That may make some sense but I'm playing contrarian in this one. My feeling is that Glennon may just give this Giants offense a spark and while I've never been a big Tua fan, he sure has looked pretty good the last two weeks. Great weather in Miami gives this game an excellent chance to 'fly over' this super-low total.

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* 'Battle of the QBs" is on the lA Chargers at 1:00 ET.

The 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals are positioned to make some noise in December, as except for the 8-3 Baltimore Ravens, every AFC team has at least four losses, with 12 at .500 or better. One of those 12 teams at .500 or better is the 6-5 LA Chargers, who remain in the playoff mix despite losing FOUR of their last six games. Baltimore leads the AFC North at 8-3, Cincy checks in at 7-4, the Browns at 6-5 and the Steelers at 5-5-1. Over in the AFC West, KC is 7-5, while the Chargers, Broncos and Raiders are all 6-5.

The Chargers come to Cincinnati, having NOT managed to win two straight games since October. The team's 28-13 loss to the Denver Broncos last Sunday was full of costly mistakes. QB Justin Herbert threw two TD passes but also had two INTs, one returned 70 yards for a TD and the other was in the end zone. That said, he's had a productive season, completing 66.0% for 3,230 yards with 24 TDs and 10 INTs. RB Ekeler has developed into one of the NFL's better all-purpose players, rushing for 604 yards (4.5 YPC / 7 TDs) plus catching 51 passes for another 7 TDs. WRs Allen (81 catches but just two TDs) and Williams (50 catches / 7 TDs) are quite a pair, while TE Cook has 33 receptions for three TDs. The Chargers' defense has been a weak link, allowing 26.6 PPG (29th).

Speaking of QBs having productive seasons, Joe Burrow is proving he deserved to be the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2020. He's completing 69.3% for 2,875 yards with 22 TDs and 12 INTs. Chase (50 catches / 18.1 YPC / 8 TDs), Boyd (46 catches / 2 TDs) and Higgins (43 catches / 3 TDs) give him a trio of quality WRs plus TE Uzomah has caught 30 balls with 5 TDs. RB Joe Mixon is having a career season, running for 924 yards on 4.4 YPC with 11 TDs (he also has 26 catches with 2 TDs). Mixon enters off back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time since 2019, running for a career-high 165 and two TDs in the 41-10 rout of Pittsburgh last Sunday. The Bengals have worked hard for the past couple of years rebuilding their defense, and the efforts are paying off. Consider this. Heading into the 2021 season, the Bengals had allowed 28.4 PPG in 2018, 26.3 PPG in 2019 and 26.5 PPG in 2020. The 2021 edition is allowing 20.5 PPG, to rank 6th-best in the NFL!

There is plenty to like about Cincy but it's been SIX years since the Bengals have been in playoff contention. Off back-to-back dominating performances (beat the Raiders 32-13 and the Steelers 41-10), I believe they throw in a 'clunker' in this spot. The Chargers have been a better road team than home team in recent years and I believe Herbert, the No. 6 pick in 2020 draft, may just have "something to prove" in his matchup with Burrow. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Signature 38-Club Play is on Pittsburgh at 8:00 ET

The 10-2 Pittsburgh Panthers (AP No. 17) and the 10-2 Wake Forest Demon Deacons meet Saturday in the ACC Championship Game at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte (no Clemson this year, after the Tigers had won the last SIX!). Pat Narduzzi was hired as Pitt's head coach on Dec 26, 2014. He led Pitt to bowl games in FOUR of his first five seasons, before last year's team went 6-5 but declined an invite due to COVID conditions. However, this year has been special, as Pitt has lost at least three games in every season since 1981 and has not ended a season in the AP top-25 since the 1982 season. That could all change this season, beginning with the ACC title game. Dave Clawson is in his eighth season at Winston-Salem and considering his record was 40-45 coming into the 2021 season, it's safe to say that this is the best team he's had. The Demon Deacons opened 8-0 (first time in school history) and with a dominating 41-10 win last Saturday at Boston College, clinched the Atlantic Division with a 7-1 record (Pitt was 7-1 in the Coastal).

Pitt QB Kenny Pickett was not among the preseason Heisman-favorites but he's sure played like a Heisman-winner in 2021. He's completing 67.7% for 4,066 yards with 40 TDs and just seven INTs (he broke Dan Marino's single-season record of 37 TDs). Two RBs top 500 yards and a third has over 450, as the Pitt running game (157.8 YPG) gives the Pitt offense balance. WR Addison (85 catches / 15.9 YPC / 17 TDs) is among the top WRs in the nation and Pittsburgh averages 42.8 PPG (4th) on 514.5 YPG (3rd). The defense allows 23.3 PPG (44th), which is plenty good enough for a team that scores almost TWICE what it allows.

Wake's offense is averaging 42.9 PPG (3rd) on 483.7 YPG (9th). QB Hartman can almost match Pickett's numbers, completing 60.3% for 3,711 yards with 34 TDs and 10 INTs (he also has 10 rushing TDs!). Much like Pitt's running game, Wake has three RBs that have run for between 429 and 557 yards, as the team averages 168.2 YG on the ground. Hartman has two, 1000-yard WRs in Roberson (62 catches / 16.5 YPC / 8 TDs) and Perry (56 catches / 19.9 YPC / 13 TDs). The real difference between the two teams is that Wake's defense allows 29.1 PPG, about a TD more per game that Pitt's D.

Bank of America Stadium tops is considered a neutral field but Winston-Salem is only about 80 miles from Charlotte, so Wake will likely have more fans. However, Pittsburgh has won all FIVE of its away games this season. After winning by seven at Tennessee, the Panthers won their next four road games by 31, 21, 25 and 17 points. Wake's defense is an issue and note that Pitt has gone 9-1 ATS in its 10 SU wins this season, the only blemish coming in a 48-38 win at UVA, where the Panthers were laying 13 points. Hartman's terrific but he is NOT as good as Pickett plus the Pitt defense owns a significant edge over Wake's "D." A win here would put a 'cherry on top' of Pitt's season, as the Panthers would head to a New Year's Six Bowl. That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My NFC 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

The Rams lost in Green Bay to the Packers 32-18 in last year's Divisional Round but much has changed as the Rams venture back to Lambeau Field Sunday afternoon for this Week 12 contest. I'll get to those changes in a bit but first, let me set the stage. The Rams opened the season 7-1 through Week 8 but were then upset by the Tiatns at home, who were playing without Henry. They then lost 31-10 at San Francisco in Week 10. A Week 11 bye likely came at a good time. The Packers lost 38-3 in Week 1 against the Saints (game was played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida) but rebounded to win their next SIX games, before the Rodgers 'vaccination fiasco!' Rodgers sat out the 13-7 loss at KC but returned in a 17-0 win over Seattle, before the Packers lost 34-31 at Minnesota last Sunday. The Packers are 8-3 and battling the 9-2 Cardinals for the NFL's No. 1 seed.

Returning to the Rams and the team's "new look." Matthew Stafford is the QB, not Jared Goff. Stafford is completing 67.7% for 3,14 yards with 24 TDs and 8 INTs (QB rating of 106.1 would be a career-best). The running game is of little help (97.9 YPG ranks 24th). WR Kupp (85 catches / 10 tDs) has blossmed into a star and while Woods (45 / 4 TDs) has been lost for the year, second-year WR Jeferson has 30 catches (16.2 YPC / 3 TDs), after catching just 19 last season (he played all 16 games). Then there's the signing of OBJ, who HC Sean McVay says will be a significant part of the offense on Sunday. LA also recently added Von Miller to the defense to join Aaron Donald. The defense has been dominating so far (22.7 PPG ranks 14th) but I expect it to really improve down the stretch.

Rodgers is again putting up outstanding numbers (66.8% for 2,571 yards with 21 TDs and 4 INTs) but the team is 1-2 since his vaccination status became an issue. Jones has run for 541 yards (4.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and is second on the team with 37 catches (4 TDs). Dillon has added 474 yards (4.4 YPC / 2 TDs) but Green Bay averages only 108.0 YPG on the ground (20th). WR Adams has 72 catches (13.6 YPC and 5 TDs) but the rest of the team's WRs have had health issues limiting their production, The defense has been excellent, allowing 19.5 PPG (5th).

Stafford averaged 309.6 passing YPG over the Rams' first eight games with 22 TDs and 4 INTs interceptions as the team went 7-1. However, in losses to the Titans and 49ers, he's averaged 268.5 yards with two TDs and four INTs. On the GB side, Rodgers did not practice Wednesday but is expected to play Sunday, although he admitted to being in significant discomfort. Meanwhile, the Packers OL is still missing 2020 All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari and just lost Elgton Jenkins to a season-ending knee injury.

Despite Rodgers' excellent stats (see above), the Packers are averaging just 22.1 PPG (18th), while the Rams check in at 27.1 PPG (7th). Stafford is just 3-7 at Lambeau Field but of course, those games were with the putrid Lions. The key to being successful in the NFL (and in handicapping it!), is about making adjustments from week to week. One of the best in the business in doing that is Rams' head coach Sean McVay. Winning at Lambeau is tough but off back-to-back losses (and coming off a bye week), the "time is right" for the Rams to get their season back on track!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* featured Sunday O/U is on LAC/Dev Over at 4:05 ET.

The 6-4 LA Chargers are a half-game back of the 7-4 KC Chiefs in the AFC West. They are in Denver this Sunday to face the 5-5 Denver Broncos who are in last-place, a half-game back of the 6-5 Las Vegas Raiders, who won Thanksgiving Day at Dallas. Sunday's game will be the first time Denver head coach Vic Fangio will coach against his former assistant Brandon Staley. Fangio was the defensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears when he hired Staley to be his outside linebackers coach in 2017. They were together for three seasons, the last with Denver in 2019. Staley has led Los Angeles into playoff contention in his first year.

Justin Herbert threw for a season-high 382 yards with three TDs and one INT in last Sunday night's 41-37 win over Pittsburgh. The Chargers led 27-10 into the 4th quarter but actually fell behind, before Herbert connected on a 53-yard TD pass with just over two minutes to go. RB Austin Ekeler ran for 50 yards (2 TDs) and caught six passes for 65 yards (2 TDs). He is the ONLY player in the AFC with 500 or more rushing yards (573) and 400-plus receiving yards (405).  He has run for 7 TDs and caught 6 TD passes. Herbert has veteran WR Allen as a possession receiver (74 catches / 10.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Williams (46 / 15.3 YPC / 7 TDs) as more of a big-play threat.

Denver opened the season 3-0, then lost FOUR straight, only to win back-to-back games before losing at home to the Eagles 30-13 last Sunday. I'm not sure Denver has finally found its next QB but Bridgewater is completing 69.2% for 2,389 yards with 14 TDs and just 5 INTs. The 14 TD passes is one shy of his career-high and he's thrown just one INT in his last four games (123 attempts). The RB duo of Gordon (522 yards / 4.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and rookie Williams (514 yards / 5.0 YPC / 1 TD) gives the offense some balance, while WRs Sutton (43 / 14.3 YPC / 3 TDs) and Patrick (37 / 14.1 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Fant (42 / 3 TDs) make up a decent receiving corp.

Here's the contrast in this game. The Chargers average 26.0 PPG but allow 26.5, while the Broncos average 20.0 PPG and allow just 18.3. Which team controls the flow and pace of this game? I say the Chargers, who have won FIVE consecutive AFC West games after dropping nine straight. Four of Herbert's 13, 300-yard passing games have come against AFC West teams and he has thrown for 17 TDs and without a SINGLE interception in his last six starts against a division opponent.

A big note of concern is obviously on the defensive side of the ball for LA, as the 37 points the Chargers conceded last weekend was the third time this season the team has allowed more than 30 points (perhaps more surprisingly, the team has won two of those three games. The Broncos' offense had the week off because of their bye and with the extra time to prepare, I expect a strong performance here from the offense against a vulnerable LA defense. Look for this total to 'fly' over the number well before the final whistle sounds.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals will welcome the 5-4-1 Pittsburgh Steelers to Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday. The 7-3 Ravens lead the tightly-contested AFC North, with the Bengals, Steelers and 6-5 Browns in hot pursuit. Cincinnati snapped a two-game slide with a definitive win at Las Vegas (32-13) last week, while Pittsburgh saw a five-game unbeaten streak end on Sunday night in a 41-37 loss at the Los Angeles Chargers.

Many felt "Big Ben" was way past his prime but he's completed 65.3% for 2.259 yards with 13 TDs and just 4 INTS (he has started 9 of 10 games). He no longer has a WR like Antonio Brown settling for WRs Johnson (59 / 2 TDs) and Claypool (34 / 15.5 YPC / just 1 TD) plus TE Freiermuth (36 / 5 TDs). Rookie RB Harris has 49 catches (2nd-most) and has added 685 yards and 5 TDs on the ground. However, he's averaging just 3.6 YPC and the team runs for ONLY 90.7 YPG (27th) on 3.7 YPC.

Cincy QB Burrow was limited to 10 games as rookie (lost to an injury) but through 10 games, has pretty much duplicated his strong play as a rookie. He enters the team's 11th game completing 68.3% (65.3% LY) for 2,645 yards (2,688) with a 21-11 ratio (13-5). Burrow threw the ball just 18 times for 148 yards (career-low) vs the Raiders but he had three TD passes, as the Bengals leaned on RB Joe Mixon and their defense (Raiders were held to 2678 total yards and 13 FDs) to blow the game open in the second half. Mixon (759 yards on 4.2 YPC and 9 TDs) averaged just 2.4 yards on 11 carries in the first half but then averaged 6.5 on 19 carries in the second. His 30 carries were a season high. It was a gritty rebound from the two previous weeks when he rushed for 64 yards against the Browns and just 33 against the Jets as the Bengals lost both games.

The Bengals are more balanced this year with second-year QB Joe Burrow getting all of his 'weapons' involved, from rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase (42 for 867 yards, eight TDs) to experienced RB Joe Mixon. Then there is a defense that has cut its points allowed from 26.5 PPG in 2020 to 21.6 in 2021 (ranked 9th). Burrow gets to face an injury-plagued Pittsburgh's defense that allowed the Chargers to put up 533 yards against last Sunday, the most the Steelers have allowed since the 2013 season!

The Bengals have won the last two meetings with the Steelers, including the blowout victory two months ago in Pittsburgh. Prior to that, the Steelers had won 11 straight dating back to 2014. Cincinnati is trying to sweep Pittsburgh for the first time since 2009 and is positioned to win a third in a row against Pittsburgh, something that hasn't happened since the late 1980s, when the Bengals won SIX straight over the Steelers from 1988-90.

It's a "new day" in Cincinnati and somewhere Paul Brown is smiling. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Sitautional Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Oklahoma at 7:30 ET.

The 10-1 Oklahoma Sooners and the 10-1 Oklahoma State Cowboys meet Saturday from Boone Pickens Stadium in a series nicknamed "Bedlam." Oklahoma opened as the AP's No. 2 ranked team and while the season was full of close calls the Sooners were 9-0 before losing 27-14 at Baylor on November 13. Oklahoma bounced back with a 28-21 win over Iowa St last Saturday and that means a win in Stillwater means the Sooners will advance to the Big 12 championship game. Oklahoma St just missed making the AP's preseason poll (ranked first among "others receiving votes") but has put together a terrific season, going 10-1 (lone loss was 24-21 at Iowa St), beating three ranked opponents along the way. Cutting to the case, Oklahoma St has already clinched a spot in next Saturday's Big 12 championship game but if the Cowboys don't want to have to face the Sooners again next Saturday, they'll have to beat them here.

Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler was one of the Heisman favorites but lost his job to Caleb Williams, who gave the offense a big boost initially but he's struggled recently. Wiliams enters the game having completed 65.5% for 1,418 yards with 15 TDs and 4 INTs plus he'as added 372 rushing yards (7.0 YPC / 6 TDs). However, in the loss to Baylor and last week's win over Iowa St, he completed just 17 of 36 (47.2%) for 229 yards with one TD and 3 INTs (84 yards rushing and two TDs). RB Brooks is explosive and has gained 972 yards on 6.0 YPC with 10 TDs for a running game that averages 175.4 YPG (56th). WR Haselwood has the most catches (36) and TDs (6) but averages only 10.6 YPC. Mims has 29 catches and 4 TDs plus is the "big play guy" averaging 22.2 YPC. The Oklahoma defense allows 24.2 PPG, which works when the team's offense averages 38.9 PPG

QB Sanders has put up good but not great numbers for Okla St. He's completed 60.2% for 1,997 yards with 15 Tds and 6 INTs, while running for 417 yards with 5 TDs. RB Warren has topped 1,000 years (1,078) on 4.9 YPC and 10 TDs (Cowboys average 195.7 YPG to rank 33rd). WR Martin leads with 54 catches (6 Tds), while Presley has 35 catches (5 TDs). The defensive edge certainly goes to the Cowboys, who rank 3rd nationally in both points allowed (14.90 and yards allowed (261.3).

This is the 116th meeting between the two schools and Oklahoma leads 90–18–7. Most notably, Oklahoma has won six straight and 16 out of the last 18 in the series. This year’s game marks the first time since 1984 that both will be ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. It should be noted that while Oklahoma is just 4-6 ATS against FBS opponents this season, Oklahoma St lost its first game this season ATS but takes a 9-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. I will also note that the Sooners are an underdog in a non-bowl game for the first time since the 2017 edition of "Bedlam" (62 straight games) when the Sooners (as a 2.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys 62-52 in Stillwater. See you all again next Saturday in a rematch of Okla/Okla St in the Big 12's 2021 championship game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on LSU at 7:00 ET.

The Aggies felt that they were snubbed last season, finishing FIFTH in the CFP rankings. A%M opened No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll but after a 3-0 start, A&M lost 20-10 to Arkansas (neutral site) and at home 26-22 to Miss St. However, A&M's 41-38 home victory over then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9 gave the team's season new 'life.' A&M added three more victories after the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies allowed only 31 points in those three games. However, A&M came up short on Nov 13 in Oxford, losing 29-19 to Ole Miss. A 52-3 win over Prairie View A&M hardly eased the pain of the Ole Miss loss. The 8-3 Aggies now finish up a disappointing season at LSU on Saturday.

Talk about disappointing! LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FIVE of seven since, with their only two wins coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED' and ULM. LSU and head coach Ed Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. At 5-6, LSU's season would end with a loss to Texas A&M but a win would make the Tigers bowl-eligible and allow Orgeron to coach his final game as LSU's head coach in a bowl game.

QB Calzado is hardly a star for A%M, completing only 56.0% of his passes for 1,943 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs. His top-two receivers are WR Smith (41 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (36 catches / 4 TDs) but A&M does have a pair of RBs that allow the team to average 195.0 YPG (34th). Spiller has run for 984 yards (5.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Achane has 861 yards (7.3 YPC / 9 TDs). The A&M offense averages 29.8 PPG (60) but it's the defense that carries this team, allowing 14.9 PPG (2nd in the nation!).

Max Johnson is no Joe Burrow but don't put the blame on him for LSU's less-than satisfying season. He's completing 60.6% for 2,509 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs. WR Bech has 42 catches (just 3 TDs) and fellow WR Boutte has 38 but 9 TDs. A HUGE issue has been a running game that is averaging only 109.8 YPG (117th) on 3.2 YPC. That said, RB Davis-Price has 919 yards (4.8 YPC with 6 TDs) and is capable of a big game (see the Florida game when he ran for 287 yards). LSU is averaging 27.1 PPG and allowing 25.5. Remember that 2019 team? It averaged 48.4, while allowing 21.9 

I will go on record to say that A&M was overrated last season and the team's effort this season, save the Alabama upset, has been disappointing as well. That defense is terrific but note that the Aggies have hardly been 'road warriors' in 2021. They edged the Buffs 10-7 at Colorado early on, then lost to Arkansas and Ole Miss (see above for both recaps). Should we really be impressed by the team's 34-14 at Missouri? I've NEVER been an Ed Orgeron fan but he is a motivator. Note that despite the team's lack of any consistent scoring, LSU had Alabama on its heels in a 20-14 loss and pushed Arkansas into OT in a 16-13 loss. LSU has six losses but those defeats have come against ranked and quality teams. Oregron's "Win One for the Gipper" pregame 'sermon' just could motivate LSU to get the outright win and give "Mr Ed" a bowl game to prepare for. Taking the points here is an easy choice.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Boston College at 12:00 ET.

No. 18 Wake Forest will know the result of the North Carolina/NC State game (Friday night) when it takes the field at 12 noon ET in Chestnut Hill, Ma on Saturday, If NC State beats North Carolina, the Demon Deacons will need to beat BC in order to win the Atlantic Division and play Pittsburgh in the ACC title game next Saturday. Even if the Wolpack lose to the Tar Heels, the Demon Deacons would still need to win, because losses by NC St and Wake would give Clemson the Atlantic Division title!

Dave Clawson is in his eight season at Winston-Salem and considering his record was 40-45 coming into the 2021 season, it's safe to say that this is the best team he's had. The Demon Deacons are 9-2 entering Saturday's contest but after opening 8-0 (first time in school history), have lost TWO of three (more in a bit). QB Hartman has been excellent, completing 60.1% for 3,475 yards with 31 TDs and 9 INTs. He's also run for 9 TDs! A trio of RBs have run for between 378 and 533 yards (17 TDs), allowing Wake to average 167.4 YPG on the ground (63rd). WRs Roberson (57 / 16.7 / 8 TDs) and Perry (52 / 19.8 / 11 TDs) are 'big time," helping Wake to average 43.1 PPG (4th) on 490.1 YPG (8th). However, the Wake defense is a liability, allowing 30.8 PPG (94th). Again, more in a bit.

The Boston College offense can't come close to matching Wake's firepower, although led by RB Garwu (980 yards / 5.1 YPC / 7 TDs), the Eagles also rush for 167.4 YPG (same as Wake). However, the QB play (mainly Grosel, who completes 57.8% for 1,216 yards with a 6-7 ratio) is dwarfed by Hartman's production and BC is lucky to be averaging 26.0 PPG. That said, the Eagles had won two straight since the surprise return of starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec (895 passing yards with 10 TDs and 6 INTs in five games) from a potential season-ending hand injury. The not-so-good news is that Jurkovec was held to 148 yards passing (10-of-24) with a touchdown and an interception while rushing for 59 yards and a TD in last week's 26-23 home loss to the Seminoles.

Why am I taking the home dog? "It's the DEFENSE, stupid!" Wake Forest has allowed 49.3 PPG on 523.7 YPG in losing two of Its last three games, while BC is allowing 20.5 PPG (25th) on 338.0 YPG (30th) on the season. What's more, BC is 10-31 ATS aa home dog going back to the 2017 season. Third-year head coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job and witha win (7th) would give BC a chance to in an eigth game (in a bowl) for the first time since 2009. I'm not sure whether it will be NC St or Clemson playing Pitt next Saturday but it WON'T be Wake. "Upset Alert" issued!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout (Apple Cup) is on Washington at 8:00 ET.

COVID pretty much wiped out almost all of the 2020 season for Washington St (1-3) and its in-state rival Washington (3-1). Both teams had new head coaches in 2020, Nick Rolovich at Washington St and Jimmy Lake at Washington. As the two rivals square off for the latest edition of the series called "The Apple Cup," both teams have a different head coach. Nick Rolovich lost his job for not following the state's COVID-19 mandate, while Jimmy Lake was let go because the Huskies, who were ranked No. 20 in the AP's preseason poll, were just 4-6 through 10 games.

Incredibly, after his Cougars beat lowly Arizona 48-14 last week, Washington State interim head coach Jake Dickert said, "There's still a lot to play for." He was alluding to the Apple Cup rivalry against Washington and the Cougars' impending bowl game. However, a day later, when Oregon lost, Dickert could add a potential Pac-12 North championship to the list of things his team could still accomplish. Say what? With a WSU victory in Seattle on Friday, and an Oregon State win over Oregon on Saturday, the Cougars would tie for first place atop the division with the Ducks and Beavers. Washington State would hold the tiebreaker with a 4-1 record in divisional play and would advance to the Pac-12 title game in Las Vegas on Dec 3. As for Washington and Bob Gregory, in his eighth season on the Huskies' staff, the team that was No. 20 in the preseason, can only hope to play 'spoiler' as at 4-7 / 3-5), the Huskies have failed to qualify for a bowl game for the first time since 2009.

Wash St QB DeLaura is completing 62.3% for 2,512 yards with 23 TDs and 9 INTs. The Cougars' running game is averaging just 123.2 YPG (105th), although RB Borhi (751 yards / 5.4 YPC / 10 TDs) is a solid player. WRs Harris (68 catches / 9 TDs) and Jackson (57 / 15.6 YPC / 7 TDs) are an impressive duo. The Wash St defense allows 25.3 PPG, ranking 58th. Washington QB Morris completes 60.6% for 2,456 yards but has a poor 14-12 TD-to-INT ratio. The running game is pretty much non-existent, averaging 108.8 YPG (118th). The Huskies are scoring only 22.3 PPG (106th), leaving it to the team's defense to keep them competitive (22.1 PPG allowed ranks 28th).

Washington St has EVERYTHING to play for in this game, while Washington can only play spoiler. Does recent series count for anything? If it does, the Cougars are in trouble. Washington has dominated the Apple Cup, going 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and has won the last SEVEN overall (ALL by double digits), longest series winning streak since UW’s 8-game run from 1974-’81). Bottom line, this is basically Washington's de-facto bowl game with no postseason in its future.

Here's why I believe Washington can win. In Its first game under Bob Gregory, the Huskies outgained the Buffs of Colorado by a 426-183 margin (22-9 advanatge in FDs), while holding them to just 2 of 13 on third-down opportunities. The Huskies were 'done in' by a minus-4 TO deficit.

Washington St will get a chance to go bowing' in December, while Washington gets its 'bowl game' and a W-I-N on Friday at home.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Game of the Week (ACC) is on NC State at 7:00 ET.

North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. However, as the Tar Heels roll into Raleigh to take on rival North Carolina St, Mack Brown's team is an UNDERWHELMING 6-5. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren's Wolfpack come in 8-3 (5-2 ACC) and can still take the ACC Atlantic Division with a win and a Wake Forest loss on Saturday at Boston College.

Sam Howell has had an excellent season but NOT a Heisman-like season, completing 63.5% for 2,704 yards with 22 TDs and 8 INTs, while rushing for 717 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs). He sat out last week (upper body injury) and his status for this game has not been determined. Howell's running plus that of RB Chandler (1,004 yards (6.0 YPC / 13 TDs) gives the Tar Heels an excellent rushing attack (212.7 YPFG to rank 20th). WR Downs is having a terrific season with 90 catches (13.3 YPC / 8 TDs) plus Green may only have 26 receptions, but he averages 20.3 YPC with 5 TDs. North Carolina can score (37.0 PPG ranks 14th) but the defense is 'ugly,' allowing 31.4 PPG (98th).

QB Devin Leary did not come into the season with the hype of Howell but is having a terrific season, completing 65.8% for 3,186 yards with 31 TDs and only 5 INTs. RBs Knight (684 yards / 5.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Person (573 yards / 4.6 YPC / 5 TD)  are solid but the team is only averaging 127.8 YPG on the ground (98th). Emezie leads with 55 catches (4 TDs), while Thomas (47 / 7 TDs) and Carter (31 / 6 TDs) give Leary multiple options. The offense is not far behind North Carolina's (33.0 PPG ranks 24th) but the HUGE edge comes on the defensive side of the ball, where the Wolfpack are holding opponents to 18.7 PPG (13th), almost two TDs less than the Tar Heels' D.

Here's the bottom line, Howell's status is up in the air and the Tar Heels would LOVE to hand their rival a loss, knocking them out a chance to win the Atlantic Division. However, North Carolina is 0-4 away from Chapel Hill, losing 17-10 at Va Tech, 45-22 to Ga Tech at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 44-34 at Notre Dame and 30-23 at Pitt. Meanwhile, Dave Doeren just could have a 'magical' season in 2021. A win here gives NC St nine wins and could lead to a championship game appearance and a bowl berth. He's been at NC St since 2013 and has led NC St to bowls in seven of the last eight years but his teams have never won more than nine games. NC St can't control what Wake Forest does but the Wolfpack can win (and cover) here against a team that hasn't wom awy from home in four previosu tries, while allowing 39.3 PPG in its last three away games

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Turkey Shoot is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Buffalo Bills and the New Orleans Saints are both dealing with a short week as they prepare to meet Thanksgiving night in New Orleans plus both are trying to "regain their footing." The Bills were in the AFC  championship game last season (13-3 regular season) but after a surprising upset at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1, won their next FOUR games, averaging 39.0 per contest. However, a 34-31 loss to Titans began a slide in which Buffalo has lost THREE of five and at 6-4, find themselves a half-game back of the 7-4 Patriots in the AFC East. The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints then lost back-to-back games by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). Last Sunday, the Saints lost 40-29  at Philly, for their THIRD straight loss.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen to his place among the elite QBs last season and through the Bill's first seven games, had a 17-3 TD to INT ratio. However, over the last three games (two losses), he has four TDs and five INTs. He's still having a good season (65.7% / 2,811 yards / 21-8 ratio with 340 rushing yards and 3 TDs) but it's time for him to step up. The running game is nothing special (118.8 YPG ranks 12th) but Allen has a strong cast of receivers. Diggs leads the way 60 / 6 TDs0 and possession receiver Beasley has 57 catches  but a YPC average of only 8.8. Samuels has 33 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and E Knox (28 / 5 TDs) complete the major contributors. However, Beasley's been limited in practice and is listed as questionable. The defense has remained solid throughout the ups and downs, allowing 17.6 PPG (2) and just 283.7 YPG (1st).

Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he had two straight interception-free games in his first two games as the Saints' starter, the Saints lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. He threw three TDs at Philly (team's third straight loss) but had two INTs and a modest 214 passing yards. The Saints have played the last two weeks without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) remains questionable for this game and so is his backup Ingram, who ran for 88 yards at Philly (was limited in practice this week).

The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 203.4 yards per game through the air (26th). It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. The Saints have won the last five meetings with the Bills, although the last meeting came back in 2017. However, New Orleans is 3-0 all-time on Thanksgiving and is playing on the holiday for the THIRD time in four seasons. Sure, Buffalo is the better team but so were the defending champion Bucs when they lost 36-27 back in Week 8. BTW...Wouldn't it be nice if all we had to do to win in the NFL was to "pick the better team?" The Saints have lost three games in a row for the first time since 2016 but take notice of this trend. The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 Week 1 shocker over the Packers and have been trading ATS wins and losses every single week. My bet says this trend (or pattern, or whatever you want to refer to it as) continues Thanksgiving night with the home dog 'barking' VERY loudly. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* CFB Thursday Game of the Year is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

The ever-lovable Lane Kiffin will take Ole Miss (9-2, 5-2 SEC) to Starkville to play Mississippi State (7-4, 4-3) in the Egg Bowl, the state's annual Thanksgiving matchup between these two in-state rivals. Two of the nation's best QBs will be the featured attraction. Ole Miss' Matt Corral is completing 67.5% for 3,100 yards with 19 TDs and just three INTs. He's also run for 552 yards and 10 more scores. His counterpart is Mississippi State's sophomore Will Rogers. He is completing a staggering 76% for 4,113 yards with 34 TDs and eight INTs. NO QB in the nation has put up the numbers Rogers has in his last nine games, as he has clipsed 300 passing yards in each contest, with more than 400 yards in four of them!

The edge for Ole Miss on the offensive side of the ball is a running game that averages 231.1 YPG (8th), as RBs Ealy (643 yards / 6.1 YPC / 5 TDs) and Connor (561 yards / 5.2 YPC / 11 TDs) join Corral for quite a balanced attack that is averaging 517.4 YPG overall (5th). WR Drummond is the best receiver (53 / 8 TDs) but four other WRs average between 15.6 and 22.1 YPC! In fact, Ole Miss is the ONLY team in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season! Th e defense is allowing 25.4 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 36.4 points.

Obviously, Rogers has thrived in Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense but with the Bulldogs' running game averaging a putrid 62.1 YPG (129th) on 3.0 YPC, there is never any room for error with Miss St's passing game. WR Polk leads the way with 88 catches (9 TDs) and much like the Rebels' receiver corps, the Bulldogs have plenty of depth and talent. Much like Ole Miss, the Mississippi St defense allows 24.7 PPG but it doesn't own the kind of balance the Ole Miss offense has.

Ole Miss has gotten healthier as the season has progressed and was clearly looking ahead last Saturday in only beating Vandy 31-17 but a win here would be VERY special. The Ole Miss program owns seven career 10-win campaigns (most recently Hugh Freeze's 10-3 showing in 2015) but all of the previous seven featured nine victories in the regular season and win No. 10 in a bowl game. A win here gets Ole Miss to 10-2 and could possibly lead to a New Year's Six Bowl berth. "Hotty Toddy!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:20 ET.

The 5-3-1 Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to LA's SoFi Stadium for an important game with the 5-4 LA Chargers. Pittsburgh trails 6-3 Baltimore in the AFC North, with 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland still 'hanging around' As for the Chargers, they are tied with the Raider, a half-game back of the first-place Chiefs (6-4) in the AFC West, while the Broncos lurk at 5-5. Clearly, this is a game BOTH teams desperately want (and NEED) to win!

The Steelers opened 1-3 but had won FOUR in a row, before playing to a tie last Sunday, against winless Detroit. Big Ben was supposedly washed up but he had completed 65.6% for 1,986 yards with 10 TDs and just 4 INTs through eight games, before missing last week because of COVID. Mason Rudolph got the start and was 30 of 50 for 242 yards with one TD and one INT (update to come). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 646 yards rushing (3.7 YPC and 4TDs) plus has added 44 catches (2nd-most on the team), with 2 TDs. WR Johnson lead witch 52 catches (3 TDs) and TE Freiermuth has 32 catches and a team-high 4 TDs. With Smith-Schuster on IR, the Steelers are hoping WR Claypool (29 catches) will be able to play (he is questionable). The Steelers are averaging just 19.7 PPG (26th) but as always are playing good defense, allowing 20.6 PPG (8th).

QB Justin Herbert had a good rookie season and opened the current season like gangbusters. His YTD numbers still look impressive (65.4% for 2,545 yards with 19 TDs and 7 iNTs) but he's really fallen off, as the Chargers are 1-3 after a 4-1 start. In those three losses, he completed just 55.6% for an average of 204.3 YPG with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. RB Ekeler is a terric all-purpose player, rushing for 523 yards (4.7 YPC with 5 TDs), while catching 39 passes for 4 TDs. WRs Allen (65 / 2 TDs) and Wiliams (41 / 6 TDs) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (28 / 2 TDs) is solid.  

Here's the deal. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin didn't rule out the possibility that Roethlisberger could play Sunday, but the game plan this week will revolve around backup Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh hasn’t lost in its last five games (4-0-1) but a closer look reveals the Steelers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games, needing referee-aided assistance to nip the Bears two weeks ago at home on MNF and this past Sunday, couldn’t even beat the winless Lions playing to a comical 16-16 tie. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 PPG in their last four home contests. The Chargers go on the road for the next two games, so a "W" here is almost a 'MUST!' I got down early on LA (-3.5) but the line jumped with the news that Big Ben may not play. He may and if so, the line will (should) come back down. Either way, my play is on the Chargers.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:25 ET.

The Cowboys were just 6-10 last season (5-11 ATS) but enter this Week 11 matchup in Kansas City against the Chiefs at 7-2 and an 8-1 ATS mark. The Chiefs have struggled on and off in 2021 but THREE straight wins have them at 6-4 and atop the AFC West, a division they've won in each of the last five seasons. However, KC's ATS woes have continued, as they are just 3-7, after ending the 2020's regular season on a 1-7 ATS run.

Dak Prescott has come back healthy in 2021 (he did miss one game), completing 70.3% of his pases for 2,341 yards with 20 TDs and just five INTs (110.8 QB rating). He's supported by the RB duo of Elliott (663 yards / 4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and Pollard (445 yards / 5.4 YPC / 1 TD). 2nd-year WR Lamb (47 catches / 15.4 YPC / 6 TDs) and veteran Cooper (44 catches / 13.3 YPC / 5 TDs) plus TE Schultz (38 catches / 11.5 YPC / 3 TDs) are his main targets. Dallas is averaging 31.6 PPG (1st) but just got the bad news that Amari Cooper was placed on the Reserve/COVID-19 list. The Dallas defense is allowing 21.7 PPG, more than a full TD less than last season (29.5).

Mahomes had played like 'Superman' the last few seasons (except for last year's Super Bowl) but has had an up-and-down season (for him!). Note that he's completing 65.8% for 2,940 yards with 25 TDs and 10 INTs (not exactly 'chopped liver!'). The running game is less-than-average (110.5 YPG ranks 18th) but in WR Hill (75 catches / 8 TDs) and TE Kelce (62 catches / 5 TDs), the Chiefs own arguably the best WR/TE combination in the NFL. The offense averages 26.2 PPG (10th), down from 29.6, 28.2 and 35.3 the last three seasons. Defense has never been a KC strength and the Chiefs are allowing 24.1 PPG (20th).

Yes, Mahomes threw for season-highs of 406 yards and five TDs last Sunday but the defense has been the 'key' to the team's three-game winning streak, allowing just 12.7 PPG. My bet says the once-struggling Chiefs "have turned a corner" and are a BARGAIN at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* featured Sunday O/U play is on Cin/LV Under at 4:05 ET.

The Bengals (5-4) and Raiders (5-4) were each atop their respective divisions a few weeks ago but both enter this contest in Las Vegas on two-game losing streaks. The Bengals took over first place in the AFC North with a dominating 41-17 win at Baltimore on Oct 24 but they followed their best performance of the season (520 total yards) with two of their two worst outings, falling 34-31 to the last-place Jets before getting blown out at home 41-16 by the last-place Browns on Nov 7. The Raiders also opened up 5-2 and appeared to be a threat to dethrone the Chiefs in the AFC West. However, a 23-16 loss to the Giants followed by a 41-14 setback to the visiting Chiefs on Sunday have dropped the Raiders to third place in the division.

Cincinnati had its bye last week and head coach Zac Taylor said,"You're going to see a good football team after this bye. We've got a lot of season left in front of us. We're going to learn from this, move on, and be a team to be reckoned with here in November and December." Joe Burrow is completing 68.2% for 2,497 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs (102.6 QB rating). Chase has developed into a first-class WR (44 catches / 19.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and TE Uzomah (28 / 5 TDs) has become a valued target. RB Mixon (636 yards / 4.2 YPC / 7 TDs) is on pace for a 1,200-yard season (17 games) but the Bengals average just 97.1 YPG on the ground (24th). Despite the D's last two games, Cincy enters allowing 22.6 PPG (11th).

Las Vegas QB Carr (67.7% for 2,826 yards with 15 TDs and 8 INTs) is also having a solid season but his running game is even worse than Cincy's. No RB has even reached 300 yards, with Raiders averaging only 85.0 YPG rushing (28th). TE Waller (44 / 2 TDs) is a 'keeper' plus WR Renfrow leads with 52 catches (4 TDs). However, he averages only 9.5 YPC and has only two TDs. Ruggs (19.5 YPC) and Edwards (20.7 YPC) are the team's deep threats but the team just released Ruggs after he was charged with four felonies and a misdemeanor for his role in a crash that killed a woman and her dog earlier this month. The Las Vegas defense has not played well (25.6 PPG / 26th).

Despite the recent slumps, both the Bengals and Raiders remain in contention in a tight conference that features SEVEN teams with five wins, FOUR more with six and only Tennessee (8-2) having created any space with the competition. Neither team has much of a running game so at first blush, maybe the play is over. However, in an ULTRA-important contest like this, these types of games are usually played "closer to the vest." I noted that the Cincy D has been shredded the last two games but in the team's first seven games, the Bengals D allowed just 18.3 PPG. I'm playing the under.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT) but then won FIVE of six. However, they've lost TWO of their last three, including 22-10 at Miami on a Thursday night game in Week 10. Baltimore is currently 6-3 but the AFC North also features 5-3-1 Pittsburgh, 5-4 Cincy and 5-5 Cleveland. The Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost FOUR in a row. Chicago 'lives' in the NFC North, a division that's dominated by the 8-2 Packers and embarrassed by the 0-8-1 Lions.

Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the season, the Ravens have still managed to lead the NFL in rushing. However, the Dolphins shut them down a week a go Thursday, holding them to 94 yards rushing. Still, the Ravens enter this game No. 1 with 154.1 YPG. QB Lamar Jackson is the key, as he's run for 639 yards (6.0 YPC / 2 TDs), while also completing 64.4% for 2,447 yards with 14 TDs and eight INTs. His top receivers are WR Brown (52 / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews (48 / 4 TDs). Jackson missed Wednesday's practice due to illness, but Harbaugh said it was not COVID-related and he practiced on Friday (all systems go). Baltimore's defense no longer resembles the "Ray Lewis era" unit, allowing 24.1 PPG (22nd) but the rush D is STRONG, allowing 88.2 YPG to rank 4th.

Chicago rookie QB Justin Fields is a 'work in progress' and still has a LONG way to go. He completes just 59.4% for 1,282 yards (Bears rank dead-last in passing yards) with 4 TDs and 8 INTs. The Bears did get RB Montgomery back in their last game and he gained 63 yards rushing vs Pittsburgh. When healthy, he's a solid back but the Bears are not likely to be very successful against Baltimore's rush D (see above). WR Mooney (26 / 2 TDs) leads in receiving as Robinson, who caught 92 and 102 pases the last two seaons, has 'faded away'with 30 catches (one TD.

Chicago's offense ranked 30th in scoring (16.7 PPG) and 31st in total offense (280.7 YPG). To add insult to injury, both Mooney and Ronbison are banged up and listed as questionable for ths game. Balitore really NEEDS a win to get back on track and the Ravens shouldn't even be a "little worried" about Chicago coming off a bye.The last time the Bears won following a bye, Marc Trestman was in his first season as their coach. Chicago beat Green Bay at Lambeau Field in 2013, after Aaron Rodgers fractured his left collarbone being sacked on the Packers' first series. Since that victory, the Bears have dropped SEVEN straight after off weeks! Baltinmore wins "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The New Orleans Saints began the season without Drew Brees and then lost Jameis Winston in the team's Week 8 win over Tampa Bay, which gave them a 5-2 record. However, the Saints have lost two games in a row by two points in the final moments. The Atlanta Falcons kicked a game-winning FG as time expired in Week 9 and then the Saints had a chance to tie but failed on a two-point conversion with 1:16 left at Tennessee (lost 23-21). The 4-6 Philadelphia Eagles welcome the Saints to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday coming off perhaps their best game of the season, a 30-13 victory at Denver last Sunday.

Trevor Siemian finished up for Winston in the Tampa Bay win but despite the fact that he has had two straight interception-free games as a starter, the Saints have lost both contests. That said, Siemian brought his team back from an 18-point fourth-quarter deficit against the Falcons to briefly take a lead with a minute left. He then brought the team back from a 14-point third-quarter deficit to the brink of tying the Titans. The Saints played last week without injured RB Alvin Kamara, their most productive offensive player (530 yards rushing and a team-high 32 receptions). Kamara (knee) returned to practice on a limited basis Wednesday but he has been ruled out for Sunday. The team's leading WRs are Harris (17.0 YPC / 2 TDs) and Callaway (5 TDs) but both have just 24 catches. The Saints are playing excellent defense, allowing 19.8 PPG (7th).

Philly QB Jalen Hurts is having a very good season, completing 62.2% for 2,159 yards with 13 TDs and 5 INTs plus has run for 549 yards on 5.7 YPC with 5 TDs. While Kamara is out for New Orleans, Philly's Miles Sanders (300 yards on 4.8 YPC and 3 TDs) has missed the last three games because of an ankle injury. However, all signs point to him playing. Heisman winner Smith has 42 catches on 14.4 YPC with 4 TDs.

The Saints' offense this season has borne little resemblance to the prolific Payton-designed attacks that led the NFL in passing a half dozen times while Drew Brees was the QB New Orleans ranks second to last in passing, averaging 202.2 yards per game through the air. It hasn't helped that top receiver Michael Thomas is missing this season because of complications related to his offseason ankle surgery. Now, Kamara is out. In contrast, Hurts is coming into his own, Sanders is back and the Eagles are averaging 32.7 PPG over their last three games.

The 'fly in the ointment' is that while Philly is 4-2 on the road, the Eagles are 0-4 at home. In fact, the Eagles have lost their last five home games, last winning in Week 14 last season. What team did the Eagles beat last year in Week 14? None other than the Saints (24-21). I'm on the Eagles in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic is on Utah at 7:30 ET.

The 9-1 Oregon Ducks retained their No. 3 spot in the CFP rankings on Tuesday and will take a five-game winning streak into their Saturday night game in Salt Lake City against the 7-3 Utah Utes (Utah moved into the CFP rankings at No. 23). Oregon is 6-1 in league play and leads the Pac-12 North by two games, while Utah's 6-1 league mark gives them just a one-game edge over Arizona St in the Pac-12 South. Oregon can clinch the North title and a spot in the conference championship game with a win Saturday or an Oregon State loss. Utah can clinch the South with a win over the Ducks or an Arizona State loss. This could very well be a preview of the Pac 12 championship game.

BC transfer Anthony Brown is Oregon's QB, completing 64.6% for 2,020 yards with 12 TDs and 4 INTs, while adding 551 rushing yards and 8 TDs. RB Dye leads the team in rushing with 908 yards (6.0YPC / 12 TDs), as Oregon ranks 12th in the nation by averaging 226.5 YPG on the ground. Dye is also Oregon's leading receiver (32), as WRs Johnson (25 catches / 1 TD) and Williams (23 catches / 2 TDs) do not 'scare' anyone's secondary. The offense averages 35.3 PPG (22nd) and the defense holds opponents to a respectable 22.8 PPG (43rd).

Baylor transfer Charlie Brewers was supposed to be Utah's answer at QB but he flopped badly. However, Cameron Rising took over in Utah's 33-31 OT loss at SD St on Sep 18, throwing for 3 TDs in a comeback effort that fell just short. He's led Utah to six wins and just one loss since, and is completing 63.5% for 1,752 yards with 14 TDs and just two INTs on the season. His top receivers are WR Kuithe (36 / 5 TDs) and TE Kincaid (24 catches / 5 TDs). Three RBs have gained more that 425 yards, led by Thomas (742 / 6.1 YPC / 14 TDs), as Utah basically matches Oregon on the ground averaging 214.7 YPG (19th). The Utes average 35.7 PPG (19th) and allow 23.8 PPG (53rd).

Yes, Oregon won 35-28 in Columbus on Sep 11 but its other three road games have been a 31-24 OT loss at Standford 3-7 record), a 34-31 'squeaker' at UCLA and a so-so 26-16 win at Washington, the Pac-12's biggest flop in 2021. Meanwhile, the Utes are 4-0 SU at home, giving them an 18-1 record going back to the start of the 2018 season!

A Utah win almost guarantees a rematch in the Pac-12 championship game. See you then!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Game of the Year is on Mia-Fl at 7:30 ET.

A pair of 5-5 ACC teams square off at Hard rock Stadium in Miami on Saturday night, as the Va Tech Hokies meet the Miami Hurricanes. Both are also 3-3 in the ACC's Coastal Division and are no threat to reach the ACC title game but both are just ONE win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Virginia Tech hosted the Duke Blue Devils last Saturday and came away with a 48-17 win. QB Braxton Burmeister threw for 215 yards, three TDs, one interception, plus added 71 rushing yards on the ground. RBs Raheem Blackshear and Keshawn King combined for 207 yards and two TD on just 21 carries. Miami visited the Florida State Seminoles last Saturday and left with a heart breaking 31-28 defeat. The Hurricanes overcame a 17-0 deficit to take a 28-20 lead early in the fourth quarter but FSU scored 10 points in the final five minutes to get the win. QB Tyler Van Dyke went 25/47 threw for 316 yards, four touchdowns (to four different players!) and two interceptions.

Va Tech QB Hooker really made a 'splash' last season once he won the job, passing for 1,339 yards (9 TDs / 5 INTs) and adding 620 rushing yards with 9 TDs. However, he transferred to Tennessee and has completed 68.6% for 2,138 yards with 22 TDs and just three INTs, while adding 464 rushing yards and four more scores. Meanwhile, Va Tech's Burmeister is completing just 54.5% for 1,710 yards with 12 TDs and 4 INTs. He can run some, adding 358 yards and two TDs for a running game that averages 174.0 yPG (57th). RB Blackshear leads the way with 542 yards on 5.4 YPC with 5 TDs. WRs Robinson (39 / 11.4 YPc / 4 TDs) and Turner (35 catches / 18.0 YPC / 2 TDs) are the only two receivers with more than 20 receptions. Va Tech typically plays good defense and this year's team is allowing 21.3 PPG, 32nd in the nation.

Miami was thrilled when D'Eriq King was able to return for another year but he didn't stay healthy long. The good news is that freshman QB Van Dyke has been excellent, completing 61.2% with 19 TDs and just 6 INTs. He has a nice trio of receivers in Rambo (64 / 14.9 / 5 TDs), Harley (41 / 4 TDs) and Smith (32 / 3 TDs. RBs Knighton (493 / 4.2 YPC / 5 Tds) and Harris (409 / 5.8 YPC / 5 TDs) can be effective but Miami is averaging a modest 133.8 YPG on the ground (95th). Miami's D is allowing 30.5 PPG (99th) but the offense scores 32.4 PPG, compared to Va Tech's 24.3.

Justin Fuent used a two-year 19-6 run at Memphis to snare the Va Tech jog but after 10-4 and 9-4 seasons, his teams were 6-7, 8-5 and 5-6, before this year's 5-5 record. Manny Diaz went just 6-6 in first first season with Miami (2019), before losing 14-0 to La Tech in a bowl game. The team lost its bowl game again last season (37-34 to Okla St), but did finish 8-3. The 'Canes were ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll, so a 5-5 season is WELL below expectations.

I noted above that the winner of this contest gets that "all-important" 6th win but each has one more game after this. Virginia Tech is at Virginia, while Miami is at Duke. Miami should have little trouble getting by Duke but the Hokies will have their hands full with UVA. That does give the "urgency edge" to Va Tech but I believe Miami will be primed to win, after that heart-breaking loss at hated-FSU. A win there and Miami would be riding a four-game winning streak with a chance to finish on a six-game winning run, before going 'bowling.'

The saying goes, "defense wins championships" but these are NOT championship teams. This Miami offense can be spectacular, as long as it takes care of the ball. Unfortunately, that was not the case for the Hurricanes last weekend, who had their worst offensive performance since their season opener against Alabama. I am firmly in the 'camp' that believes the Hurricanes bounce back at home this weekend. Look for the home field to be a big advantage for the Hurricanes (Va Tech is on a 2- ATS run on the road), as they punch their ticket to bowl eligibility with a convincing win of the "rocking chair" variety.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* 'Battle 4 LA' is on USC at 4:00 ET.

The UCLA Bruins and the USC Trojans meet in Pac-12 action from the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on Saturday with the winner earning the "Victory Bell." The Bruins are 6-4 (4-3 in the Pac 12) while the Trojans are 4-5 (3-4). The Bruins are coming off a 44-20 win over Colorado in their last game, after back-to-back losses to Oregon and Utah, which took them out of any Pac 12 championship game hopes. USC opened the season as the AP's No. 15 team but opened just 3-2 and then saw its season crumble, with just ONE win (over then winless Arizona) in its next four games. Last week's game at Cal was postponed and will be made up Dec 4.

QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has completed 60.3% for 1,896 yards, 14 touchdowns ad 4 INTs, while rushing for 463 yards with 7 TDs. His top receivers are WR Philips (47 / 13.3 YPC / 6 TDs) and TE Dulcich (34 / 16.6 / 4 TDs. RBs Charbonnet (864 yards / 5.7 YPC / 11 TDs) and Brown (616 / 6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) help give UCLA nice offensive balance, averaging 209.4 YPG on the ground (21st). The defense is allowing 27.4 PPG (76th).

There was a time when USC was dubbed "Running Back U" but those days are long gone. RB Ingram (815 yards / 5.9 YPC / 5 TDs) is a quality back but the team is averaging only 136.8 YPG on the ground (92nd). Big things were expected of QB Kedon Slovis but while he's completing 65.0% and has thrown for 2,153 yards, he has only 11 TD passes with eight INTs. However, he does have one of the nation's best WRs in London, who has 88 catches (12.3 YPC / 7 TDs). The USC defense is about the same as UCLA's, allowing 28.9 YPG (85th).

UCLA's Chip Kelly left his 'genius' up in Eugene, where he went 46-7, including 33-3 in the Pac 12. He was a 'disaster' in the NFL and in his return to the college ranks with UCLA, he was 10-21 in his first two seasons before going 6-4 in 2021. He's lost his two meetings with crosstown rival USC and that fits right into the current series history between these two teams. USC has won FIVE of the last six meetings overall and is 10-1 SU in the last 11 played here at the LA Coliseum. A win here and USC will get two chances (home to BYU and at Cal), to become bowl-eligible. As the USC chant goes, "Fight On!" I'm taking the points but expect an outright win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Texas at 12: 00 ET.

Texas began the season ranked 21st in the AP's preseason and opened with a 38-18 win over ULL (note: ULL has NOT lost since and at 9-1, is ranked 22nd in the current AP poll). The Longhorns lost 40-21 to Arkansas in their second game but then won three in a row, to enter their HUGE rivalry game with Oklahoma at 4-1 (still No. 21 in the AP poll). However, after taking a 28-7 lead in the first quarter, the Longhorns saw the game (and maybe their season?) crumble. Oklahoma would outscore Texas 25-3 in the 4th quarter for a 55-48 win and Texas hasn't won since. Texas hit 'rock bottom' with its 57-56 (OT) loss at home to Kansas, a team that entered this season 5-84 in Big 12 play the previous decade, as well as with a 2-52 road record in all games.

4-6 Texas now 'limps' into Morgantown to take on the 4-6 West Va Mountaineers. West Va head coach Neal Brown is in his third season with the Mountaineers and entered the current season 11-11. West Va comes into this game 4-6, off back-to-back losses (by the combined score of 58-20) and like Texas, would need to win its last two games to become bowl-eligible. However, it's hard to imagine either of these teams thinking too much about a bowl bid, as just a plain "W" would do.

No one can argue Texas doesn't have the offense to be among the top-25 teams, as QB Thompson is completing 64.3% for 1,914 yards with 23 TDs and just 7 INTs. RB Robinson has 1,227 yards rushing on 5.8 YPC and 11 TDs, as Texas is averaging 37.8 PPG (13th). However, the defense is a MESS, allowing 32.5 PPG (107th) on 437.0 YPG (105th).

West Va QB Doege is completing 65.5% for 2,448 yards but has a much more modest TD/INT ratio at 13-10. RB Brown gained over 1,000 yards last year in 10 games but through 10 games this season has just 751 (but 11 TDs). West Va's offense (25.7) averages about a TD less per game than Texas does but its defense (24.1) allows about a TD less per game.

The visitor in this series had won four in a row and West Va almost made it five in row last year, falling just 17-13 at Austin. In the end, this contest is not about the numbers. Texas (on paper) is the MUCH better team and is getting points. The 'key' will be if the Longhorns can 'Cowboy Up,' as they like to say in Texas. The Longhorns 'booted' head coach Tom Herman (32-18 in four years at Texas, leading the Longhorns to four bowl wins), for Steve Sarkisian. One wonders how Sarkissian could survive by losing SEVEN in a row to end the year (Texas is home to Kansa St in  its final game)?

How can the Texas defense possibly play worse and if Sarkisian can't 'rally his troops' to a win here, he deserves to be 'voted out of office! Take the FG or so with Texas. Hook 'em Horns!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Game of the Year is on Air Force at 9:00 ET.

The Air Force Falcons and Nevada Wolf Pack meet Friday night at Mackay Stadium in Reno, Nv. Both schools are 7-3, including 4-2 in MWC play. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons will be back 'bowling' in 2021. Nevada is coached by Jay Norvell, who arrived in Reno in 2017. Norvell went 3-9 in his first season but has led the Wolf Pack to three straight bowls since then, including going 7-2 in last year's pandemic-shortened season after beating Tulane 38-27 in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Air Force has thrown just 98 passes in its nine games but as will come as no surprise, leads the nation in rushing at 311.1 YPG , averaging 4.9 YPC with 31 TDs. RB Roberts has 1,064 yards (10 TDs) and QB Daniels has 646 yards (9 TDs). Two other players of note are Davis (360 yards on 7.7 YPC) and Hughes (250 yards on 7.8 YPC). Air Force's defense is often overlooked but shouldn't be, as the Falcons are allowing only 17.6 PPG (11th) on 288.3 YPC (5th).

While Air Force 'lives' by the run, Nevada 'lives' by the pass. QB Strong completed 70.1% with 27 TDs and 4 INTs last season and comes into this game completing 70.5% for 3,547 yards with 29 TDs and 7 INTs. He's put those kinds of numbers despite a running game that averages only 64.2 YPG (129th) on 2.6 YPC. Three receivers have 50-plus catches, led by WRs Doubs (64 / 7 TDs) and Stovall (51 / 1 TD) plus TE Turner has 55 with 8 TDs. Nevada is averaging 34.9 PPG. The Nevada D is not bad, allowing 24.2 PPG (55th).

Nevada is 5-0 at home this season and will take a 9-game home winning streak into this contest but one MUST take into consideration that Air Force is 4-0 on the road, while going 4-0 ATS as well. Breaking down the matchup we find that the Air Force defense allows just 184.1 YPG through the air, ranking 14th in the nation. On the other hand, I believe Air Force will be able to run effectively against Nevada and that also serves the purpose of keeping Strong on the sidelines. Take the 'Flyboys!'

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots didn't fare too well in Year 1 of the post-Brady era, going 7-9.  Adding insult to injury, it could have set too well with the entire organization that TB 12 led the Bucs to a Super Bowl title. The Pats opened the current season 1-3 but they have put their early-season woes behind them with a FOUR-game winning streak. The 6-4 Patriots have outscored their opponents 150-50 during the four-game streak and visit Atlanta just a half-game behind the 7-3 Buffalo Bills in the AFC East.

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-5 but are coming off a PUTRID performance last Sunday, losing 43-3 at Dallas. The beating was so one-sided that Atlanta trailed 36-3 at halftime, the 33-point deficit representing the franchise's largest at the break since trailing the Johnny Unitas-led Baltimore Colts 35-0 back on Nov 12, 1967 (FYI...Atlanta joined the nFL in 1966!). The Falcons are back on the field just four days after that beatdown but Falcons head coach Arthur Smith said,"It's a good thing we play Thursday," When you play a game like that, you wanna move on as quickly as possible, so I'm kinda glad we're playing Thursday."

A good part of the reason for New England's success revolves around the quick rise of rookie QB Mac Jones.On the season, Jones has completed 69.0% for 2,333 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. Jones passed for a career-best three TDs (zero INTs) and completed 19 of 23 for 198 yards on Sunday as New England steamrolled the Cleveland Browns 45-7. He's accomplished all this despite a so-so receiving corps and a running game that is averaging only 114.5 YPG (16). The Pats' lone RB of note (Harris has 547 yards and 7 TDs) was out last week (concussion) and was limited in practice on Tuesday (questionable for Thursday). Still, Jones leads an offense averaging 27.5 PPG (6th) plus as always, Belichick's defense is doing just fine (17.7 PPG allowed ranks 2nd).

QB Matt Ryan no longer has much of a receiving corps plus a running game that's worse than New England's (67.7 YPG ranks 29th) but per usual, he's on pace for another 4,000 yard season (he's topped 4,000 yards the last 10 seasons). A bright spot for Atlanta's passing game is Florida rookie TE Pitts, who leads the team with 40 catches. There are NO bright spots on a defense allowing 29.2 PPG (31st).

Simply put, this is a mismatch 'on paper!' The Pats are 4-0 on the road and the Falcons are 0-3 at home. Jones is in uncharted territory here, as this is a pretty large spread to cover on the road on a short week. Not all of the current Atlanta team was around when the Falcons blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead in that infamous Super Bowl loss to the Pats in the 2016 season but there remains a deep-seated hatred for this opponent. I'm grabbing the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

Pick your poison. The Los Angeles Rams are 4-0 on the road this season, while the San Francisco 49ers are 0-4 at home. However, San Francisco has beaten the Rams FOUR consecutive times (more on these trends at the end). The 3-5 49ers are in desperate need of a win when they welcome the 7-2 the Rams to Levi's Stadium on Monday night at Santa Clara, Ca. As for the Rams, they are battling the Arizona Cardinals for the NFC West lead and got some huge help Sunday when the Murray-less Cards were routed 34-10 by the Panthers, dropping them to 8-2.

The Rams are coming off a 28-16 home loss to the Tennessee Titans and one of LA's two TDs came with 24 seconds left to make the outcome look closer than it was. QB Matthew Stafford had his worst game of the season (one TD / 2 INTs and a QB rating of 71.0) and accepted blame for the setback. Head coach Sean McVay is looking for a bounce-back performance. "We have to play cleaner football," McVay said. "I want to see what we learn from our response. The last time we had a setback, I liked how we responded." Expect Stafford to bounce back. In his previous three games, he had thrown for 10 TDs and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 128.7, 117.3 and 127.3! He's completing 68.2% on the season for 2,771 yards with 23 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 111.0 / his career mark is 91.0). LA's running game doesn't get help much but even though vet WR Woods (45 / 12.4 / 4 TDs) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in practice this week, Stafford still has plenty of 'weapons.' Fellow WR Kupp leads the NFL with 74 catches and has 10 TDs (he's caught five-plus passes in 13 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL). WR Jeferson (27 / 16.0 / 3 TDs) is MORE than capable of stepping up and who knows, maybe OBJ will like the 'lights' of Hollywood. TE Higbee (35 catches / 2 TDs) is a 'keeper. The LA defense hasn't quite dominated but it's still one of the most-feared in the NFL.

Jimmy Garoppolo (65.3% / 1,754 yards / 8 TDs and 5 INTs) was considered the team's 'savior' when he led the 49ers to the Super bowl at the end of the 2019 season but he seems to be regularly on the 'hot seat' these days. That said, he has thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games, with QB ratings of over 100.0 in both. Like the Rams, the 49ers don't have much of a running game and last week ran for just 39 yards, the lowest total in the Kyle Shanahan era. WR Samuel has 49 catches (18.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and when healthy, TE Kittle (25 catches / 13.1 YPC / 1 TD) is among the very best in the league. He did return last week (six catches for 101 yards with his first tD catch of the year) but let's wait and see.

Yes, the 49ers have won FOUR straight against the Rams but how can one ignore that since the start of the 2020 season, San Francisco is just 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in home games? Yes, the lone "W" came against the Rams last October but the Rams are the MUCH better team and are coming off a humiliating home loss. A bounce back seems highly likely and now, with Arizona's loss, the Rams have a chance to join the Cards atop the NFC West. Stafford has found a 'home' with the Rams and enters as the only QB to throw for 250-plus yards in all nine games. Taking him over Jimmy G is a 'no-brainer' plus the Rams own the better defense. Lay the small points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Featured Sunday NFL O/U is on Min/LAC Under at 4:05 ET.

The 3-5 Minnesota Vikings come into Sunday's game with the 5-3 LA Chargers, enduring a season's worth of frustarting losses. Their five losses have been by a total of just 18 points, including two OT losses. The Chargers know the feeling, as they had a similar start last season. Their first five losses were by a combined 19 points and also had two ending in overtime. The bottom line is, as the teams take the field Sunday at So-Fi Stadium, Minnesota's season is 'on the brink,' while the Chargers are tied with the Raiders atop the AFC West, with KC and Denver lurking just one game back at 5-4.

Minnesota has also had to deal with five players on the COVID-19 list, including two starters. Safety Harrison Smith will miss Sunday's game, but center Garrett Bradbury could return. There is also RB Dalvin Cook, who is facing a lawsuit from a former girlfriend, who alleges the running back assaulted her during an altercation at his home last year. Cook ran for over 1,500 yards last season with 16 TDs plus caught 44 passes. However, in six games this season, he has 554 yards rushing on 4.8 YPC with only two TDs and a mere 15 receptiosn. QB Kirk Cousins is once again putting up impressive numbers (68.2% / 2,140 yards 16 TDs and two INTs), as he has two excellent WRs in Jefferson (46 / 13.7 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (45 / 7 TDs). However, Minnesota is averaging a middle-of-the-pack 24.3 PPG (17th). A big failing is the team is converting just 35.7% on third downs (25th of 32 teams).

The Chargers have a young and exciting QB in Justin Herbert (66.1% / 2,350 yards / 18 TDs and 6 INTs), who just broke out of a two-game slump that saw him 'earn' QB ratings of 67.8 and 66.7 in his previous two games. He completed a career-high 84.2% of his passes against the Eagles (LA won 27-24), throwing for 356 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (123.2 QB rating). RB Ekeler (479 yards / 4.7 YPC / 5 TDs / plus 36 catches and 3 TDs) is 10th in the league in scrimmage yards and has five 100-yard games this season. Like Cousins, Herbert has an excellent WR duo in Allen (57 catches / 2 TDs) and Williams (37 catches / 15.5 YPC / 6 TDs).

Both teams have so-so defenses but I do NOT see this being a high-scoring game. While non-conference games aren't always the most intense on the defensive side of the ball, I believe each side will be doubling down on that end in this one. LA can't afford a loss here in the ultra-competitive AFC West plus Minnesota just continues to find ways to underachieve. This one stays UNDER the total.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans began the season with what was then considered a shocking upset, as the Cardinals came to Nashville and won 38-13. However, Arizona would win its first seven games and currently stands at 8-1, owners of the NFL's best record. The Titans would lose a shocker in Week 4, 27-24 at the NY Jets and found themselves at 2-2. However, the Titans have won FIVE in a row since (5-0 ATS), including wins over the Bills, Chiefs and last week the Rams, even without RB Henry. The Saints home opener in Week 1 was moved to Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida but they responded with a dominating 38-3 win over the Packers, handing Aaron "I'm immunized" Rodgers the worst loss of his professional career. With Brees retired, Jameis Winston was the new starting QB and while he was completing under 60% of his passes and was not racking up too many passing yards, he had a 14-3 TD-to-INT ratio and a QB rating of 102.8. The Saints got the better of the Bucs in Week 8 (36-27) but Winston suffered a season-ending injury. Trevor Siemian took over during the Tampa Bay game and started last week's 27-25 loo to the Falcons.

The Saints visit Nashville at 5-3, one game behind the Bucs in the NFC South and "right in" the battle for an NFC wild card berth. Siemian threw for 159 yards (one TD / 0 INTs) vs Tampa Bay and then for 249 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) against Atlanta. Much like Winston learned, the Saints receiving corps nowhere near matches recent editions. It also doesn't help that RB Kamara (530 yards on 3.6 YPC with 3 TDs), hasn't played up to his standards of the last couple of seasons (Kamara does lead the team in receptions with 32 and 4 TDs. The Saints are slightly better than average in scoring (25.1 PPG ranks 12th) but its defense has been VERY good. New Orleans is allowing 19.4 PPG (5th) on 347.0 YPG (11th).

RB Henry (937 yards and 10 TDs in eight games) was carrying the Tennessee offense and in the team's first game without him Sunday night in LA vs the Rams, the Titans used Adrian Peterson, D'Onta Foreman and Jeremy Nichols. However, they combined for just 69 rushing yards(2.7 YPC), which was almost 50 fewer than Henry was averaging. QB Tannehill didn't help much (143 yards with one TD and one INT) but the Titans were able to win 28-16! In just two snaps 20 seconds apart, Jeffery Simmons and Kevin Byard forced Matthew Stafford into a pair of terrible decisions. The stunning sequence ended with Byard sprinting to the end zone carrying the second of Stafford's back-to-back interceptions. Despite gaining just 194 yards vs the Rams, the defense, which forced field goals at the end of three long drives, led the Titans to a 12-point win as a TD underdog!

I'm NOT counting on Tennessee getting so 'lucky' again vs the Saints. New Orleans has the stingiest run defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game (73.8) and yards per carry (3.2). Only one of its eight opponents (Washington) has rushed for as many as 100 yards. Tannehill (just 11 TDs and 8 INTs on the season) NEEDS a dominating running game to be effective and that's NOT likely. Siemian has done fine (0 INTs is sweet) and Saints receivers dropped several of Siemian's passes that were catchable. "(Siemian had a) pretty calm demeanor, especially in those final drives after we fell behind," Saints head coach Sean Payton said. "He made enough plays and got us back in the game. He got us in and out of a number of different plays. I think we could have helped him more with some of the playmakers."

Tennessee is 7-2, giving them a comfortable THREE-game lead in the AFC South, while as noted earlier, the Saints are in a dog fight for postseason eligibility. This may come as a shock to some but New Orleans is 23-5 SU on the road since the start of the 2018 season, the best away mark in the NFL during this span. Of course I'm taking the points but I'm sending out an "Upset Alert!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ws FB team at 1:00 ET.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers come off their bye week and visit the Washington Football Team in a rematch of last year's NFC wild-card game. The Buccaneers won 31-23 that day en route to the Super Bowl, but it wasn't easy. An unknown QB named Taylor Heinicke got the start for Washington and passed for 306 yards and a TD while running for another. That performance led to a two-year contract and then Ryan Fitzpatrick's injury in Week 1 this season led to Heinicke becoming the starter. As for his counterpart Tom Brady, he held on to his job too and will line up against Heinicke once again.

The Bucs are 6-2 and in a battle for the NFC's top seed with the 6-2 Cowboys, 7-2 Packers and Rams plus the 8-1 Cards. Brady's been superb once again, completing 67.3% for 2,650 yards with 25 TDs and 5 INTs. The Bucs lead the NFL in scoring (32.5 PPG) and are No. 2 in YPG at 423.1. The Tampa defense has been middle-of-the road, allowing 22.9 PPG (13th).

Defense has been a 'bad' word in DC this season, as Washintion's strong defensive play down the stretch allowed them to win the NFC East and get a chance vs Brady and the Bucs in the wild card game. Expectations for the team's defense were high entering the season but Washington is allowing 28.4 PPG (29th) on 389.4 YPG (30th). Heinicke's play has been up and down, as he's completing 63.9% for 1,928 yards with 11 TDs and 9 INTs, while running for 232 yards (6.4 YPC) and one TD. Washington's skill position players are average at best (I'm being kind) and despite averaging 348.6 YPG (16th), the offense is only producing 19.5 PPG (25th).

Considering all Brady has accomplished, it's not surprising he has fared very well with an extra week to prepare for an opponent. In 21 starts following a regular-season bye, he's 16-5. Of course, the Bucs will have to win by double digits to cover in this one. Brady and the Bucs are still dealing with injuries, despite coming out of their bye week, as two of his top offensive weapons will miss this game, WR Antonio Brown and TE Rob Gronkowski. There are also injury issues in the Bucs secondary. Washington won't be winning the NFC 'Least' this year, as the Cowboys are 6-2 but how sweet would an upset win over Tampa 'taste!' I'll take a cover. Grab the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cle Browns at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns are FINALLY rid of former All-Pro wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and that HAS to be good news. Baker Mayfield and the 5-4 Browns are in Foxborough, Ma to take on Mac Jones and the 5-4 New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon. Mayfield threw for 218 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 14-of-21 passing, and Nick Chubb rushed for 137 yards and two scores to help the Browns rout the rival Cincinnati Bengals 41-16 last Sunday, in what was Cleveland's best overall game this season. The Patriots coasted to a 24-6 win at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, giving them their first three-game winning streak since the 2019 season and after a 1-3 start, New England has won four of five to also come in at 5-4.

Cleveland had dropped three of its previous four games before Sunday's rout of Cincinnati. Without Beckham, the Browns had a balanced offensive attack with Mayfield completing passes to eight different receivers. Mayfield is not having a great season (66.7% for 1,917 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs), as the Cleveland offense counts on the NFL's best rushing offense (160.2 YPG, 5.3 YPC and 16 rushing TDs all rank No. 1 among all NFL teams). However, Nick Chubb (3rd in the NFL with 721 rushing yards) was placed on the team's reserve/COVID-19 list early in the week and ruled out on Friday. D'Ernest Johnson is the team's lone healthy RB but the good news is that Johnson ran for a career-best 146 yards and a TD in his first start against Denver back on Oct 21. "We are extremely confident in D'Ernest. That has not been a question yet," Mayfield said. The Cleveland defense ranks 3rd in yards allowed (309.7 YPG) and is arguably coming off its best effort. Cincy's Joe Burrow came into last Sunday's game as the only QB with multiple TD passes in every game but was held without a TD pass and was intercepted twice. His QB rating on the season is 102.6 but against Cleveland it was 69.0!

Alabama rookie Mac Jones has completed 68.0% for 2,135 and completed at least 70% of his passes in FIVE of his first nine games, the only rookie QB to do so. However, he has a modest 10-7 TD/INT ratio and in the win over Carolina, he threw for just 139 yards on 12-of-18 passing with a touchdown and an interception. Over the last two weeks, Jones has completed just 57 percent of his passes while averaging 178 yards passing. The No. 15 overall pick in this year's draft completed better than 70 percent of his pass attempts while averaging 254.1 yards over his first seven starts. More bad news is that the Patriots' leading rusher (only rusher?) Damien Harris began the week in the concussion protocol. Harris has run for 547 yards and 7 TDs for a team that averages just 106.8 YPG on the ground (19th) and has been ruled OUT for Sunday's game. Belichick-coached teams always play good defense and the 2021 Pats are allowing just 18.9 PPG (4th) on 340.3 YPG (9th). 

I can't help but think that the Pats are a little overrated and that Browns just may be a little underappreciated. Breaking the game down finds this is a tough Browns defense that's good at stopping the run (84.8 YPG ranks 3rd) and New England can't be expected to run well without Harris. That's going to put even more pressure on Jones, who is off back-to-back mediocre efforts (he can call Joe Burrow and ask about the Cleveland D!). The Browns rank first in the league in YPC, in average time per drive and rank in the top-three in plays per drive. Kevin Stefanski needs to out-coach Bill Belichick today, which is never an easy thing to do, but the talent on this Cleveland defense will prove to be the difference in the end in my opinion.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Late Show' play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET.

The Utah State Aggies were blown out in their first three games last season and head coach Gary Anderson was let go. The Aggies played just six games in 2020, ending 1-5. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas St and he brought QB Logan Bonner with him. The result? Utah St is 7-2 overall, including 4-1 in the MWC's Mountain Division. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. However, the Spartans are just 5-5, including 3-3 in the West Division. The two schools meet Saturday night in San Jose.

Bonner has been very good, completing 61.3% for 2,486 yards with 21 TDs and 9 INTs. Bonner has an excellent group of receivers, led by Thompkins (72 catches / 18.3 YPC / 8 TDs). He's joined by a trio that combines for 87 catches and 14 TDs. RBs Tyler (516 yards / 5.0 YPC / 4 TDs) and Noa (431 yards / 4.2 YPC / 3 TDs) give the Aggies some nice balance on offense, as the Aggies are averaging 31.8 PPG (43rd) on 474.9 YPG (12th). The defense is an issue, as Utah St allows 27.2 PPG (79th) on 425.3 YPG (101st).

QB Nick Starkel is off a very good season (64.2% with 17 TDs and 7 INTs) but he's been inconsistent and has been replaced by Nick Nash at times. Starkel is completing a poor 50.8% for 1,207 yards with 9 TDs and 6 INTs, while Nick Nash has thrown for 971 yards with 6 TDs and 3 INTs plus run 359 yards. RB Tyler Nevens leads the Spartans with 699 rushing yards (4.8 YPC / 6 TDs). TE Deese leads with 42 catches (16.1 YPC / 4 TDs). San Jose St is averaging just 21.4 PPG (down from 28.6 PPG) but its defense is holding opponents to 23.0 PPG (50th) on 355.9 YPG (46th).

Recent series history all favors Utah St (San Jose St had won 11 of 12 but Utah St has won the last EIGHT meetings) but oddsmakers have made the 5-5 Spartans more than a three-point favorite over the 7-2 Aggies. Wonder why? Utah St is a money-burning 11-24 ATS in its last 35 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, San Jose St enters on a 4-game ATS winning streak and chalk this up as a game many will call an upset (a 5-5 team beating a 7-2 team), unaware that the Spartans are the favorite in the game. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Arkansas at 7:30 ET.

Sam Pittman did an excellent job as Georgia's OL coach and got his first head coaching gig at Arkansas in 2020. Not much went right, as the Razorbacks finished 3-7. More than a few publications had Arkansa pegged as the 7th team in the SEC's 7-team SEC West but Arkansas opened 4-0 SU and ATS, with wins over then-No. 15 Texas (40-21) and then-No. 7 Texas A&M (20-10). However, the Razorbacks are just 2-3 (1-4 ATS) over their last five games. At 6-3 (25th in the latest CFP rankings), Arkansa travels to Baton Rouge to take on the LSU Tigers, who check in at 4-5 (2-4 in the SEC). Arkansas is off a hard-fought 31-28 victory against Mississippi State, while LSU scared the 'you know what' out of Alabama in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, falling just 20-14 as a 4-TD underdog (FYI...LSU was my free play!).

Arkansas QB Jefferson has had an excellent season, completing 64.2% for 1,848 yards with 16 TDs and just 3 INTs. He is also one of FOUR Arkansas players with more than 400 yards rushing, as the team's running game ranks 4th in the nation averaging 244.3 YPG  on 5.3 YPC. Burks (48 catches / 16.6 YPC / 8 TDs) is the lone receiver of note but the Arkansas offense is good enough to average 32.6 PPG (35th) on 457.8 YPG (21st). Defensively, Arkansas is credible, allowing 24.0 PPG (57th) on 351.2 YPG (41st).

LSU's 2019 'magical' season seems more like 20 years ago, not just two. LSU opened the season with a loss at UCLA but then won THREE in a row. However, the Tigers have lost FOUR of five since, with their lone win coming 49-42 over a Florida team that has 'IMPLODED!' The Gators opened 3-1 (lone blemish was a two-point loss to Alabama) but has now lost FOUR of five (only win over 2-7 Vandy, which is 0-5 in the SEC). Max Johnson has done a credible job at QB, completing 60.1% for 2,169 yards with 22 TDs and 6 INTs. A HUGE issue is a running game that is averaging only 112.0 YPG (116th) on 3.4 YPC. It's actually worse than that, as LSU ran for 321 yards vs Florida. Take that one game away and LSU is averaging 85.6 YPG. The LSU defense is allowing 27.8 PPG (79th).

LSU and head coach Orgeron reached agreement last month on a buyout that will take place at the end of the season. The Tigers need two wins in their last three games to become bowl eligible and extend Orgeron's tenure by one game. Coming off the team's 'leave it all on the field' effort at Alabama, I find it hard to believe that LSU doesn't suffer a letdown in this one. Orgeron said Max Johnson remains the team's starting QB but against Arkansas he'll give freshman Garrett Nussmeier "significant snaps at the beginning of the game, and we'll see how it goes." How is that a good thing?

The Tigers allowed just SIX yards rushing to the Tide last week (how is that possible?), after allowing 330 to Kentucky and 265 to Ole Miss. Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman is taking it one game at a time: "I believe LSU played as physical and as hard as they had all year," Pittman assessed earlier in the week. "Coach Orgeron certainly has the attention of the team still and they're very, very talented. From what I saw on film, compared to the other weeks, I thought they played extremely well and physically on Saturday against Alabama."Arkansas plays with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 27-24 in the last meeting on November 21st of last year. Yes, Alabama is up next but how could Arkansa be looking ahead? The LAST thing this team needs is a loss heading into that contest. Arkansas is the better team and I expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover.

Good Luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Washington at 7:00 ET.

Washington was ranked 20th in the AP's preseason poll and fellow Pac-12 member Arizona St checked in at No. 25. However, as these two conference rivals at Seattle on the second Saturday of November, both teams have been disappointments. Arizona St has had the better season, as its 31-16 victory against visiting USC last Saturday got them to 6-3, making them bowl-eligible. Arizona State will face an interim coach when the Sun Devils travel to Washington for a Pacific-12 Conference matchup Saturday. Washington's 26-16 home loss to No. 4 Oregon last Saturday dropped the Huskies to 4-5 (3-3 in the Pac-12). To add insult to injury, Washington head coach Jimmy Lake was suspended for a week by athletic director Jen Cohen for a sideline altercation with one of his players. That means defensive coordinator Bob Gregory will act as head coach for the game.

That sets up the following scenario, Arizona State will face an interim coach for the THIRD straight game the Sun Devils have previously gone up against Washington State's Jake Dickert and USC's Donte Williams. QB Daniels can be an exciting performer but also a frustrating one. He's completing 67.3% for 1,880 yards and has run for 482 yards on 5.7 YPC with 4 TDs but he's thrown just seven TDs in nine games (also seven INTs). The Sun Devils snapped a two-game losing streak with their win over USC, as RB Rachaad White rushed for 202 yards and THREE TDs. However, he had run for just 483 yard in the team's eight games (note: he does have 12 TDs on the season). ASU has a nice run/pass balance and is averaging 30.3 PPG (54th). The Sun Devils have played well defensively, allowing just 20.2 PPG (26th) on 331.0 YPG (also 26th)

Washington QB Morris is completing 60.4% for 1,920 yards with an 11-9 TD/INT ratio. It doesn't help that the team's running game is nearly non-existent (118.2 YPG ranks 106th on 3.5 YPC). There is depth at the receiving position, with five players hauling 21 or more passes, led by McMillan (31 / 13.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Bynum (26 / 16.8 YPC / 4 TDs). The offense averages only 22.0 PPG (110th) but the Washington D keeps them in ball games, allowing 19.7 PPG (23rd) on 336.8 YPG (31st).

Washington has lost 11 of the last 13 games with the Sun Devils but those two wins have come in the last THREE meetings (both wins by the Huskies have been here in Seattle). ASU got its sixth win last Saturday but look for Washington to gets it fifth win in this one, giving the Huskies two tries (at Colorado and home to Washington St) to become bowl-eligible. Better yet, we are getting almost a full TD.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Marquee Classic in on Ole Miss at 7:00 ET.

Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2) has its sights set on the SEC's West Division title, a goal that requires not only winning its next two conference games but also requires Alabama (8-1, 5-1) to lose to either Arkansas or Auburn. A&M can't control what Alabama does, so all the team can do is 'take care of business' and then wait and see. Ole Miss (7-2, 3-2) has already lost to Alabama, so the Rebels' hopes of a SEC West title are not quite realistic. However, the winner of this game does put itself in prime position for a New Year's Six Bowl (A&M is 11th in the latest CFP rankings and Ole Miss is 15th).

The Aggies are riding some strong momentum, after their 41-38 victory on Oct 9 over No.1-ranked  Alabama gave their season new 'life' (A&M entered that contest on a two-game slide). A&M has added three more victories since the Alabama win, riding some dominating defense in which the Aggies have allowed only 31 points the last three games. The team now ranks 2nd in the nation in allowing 14.7 PPG on 318.3 YPG (15th). Offensively, OB Calzado is no star, completing just 54.9% for 1,556 yards with 12 TDs and 7 INTs. His two best options are WR Smith (35 catches / 6 TDs) and TE Wydermyer (30 catches / 13.5 YPC / 4 TDs). Calzado does get help from a running game that is averaging 191.7 YPG (40th), led by the duo of Spiller (873 yards on 6.1 YPC  with 5 TDs) and Achane (706 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs). The Aggies are averaging 38.6 PPG, which works well when one's defense is allowing about HALF that many points!

The "ever-lovable" Lane Kiffin has himself quite a team in Oxford this season, one which has a chance to match the 2015 team that went 10-3 after a 48-20 win over Oklahoma St in the Sugar Bowl. QB Matt Corral has completed 66.9% for 2,5627 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs. Corral also chips in a team-leading 528 yards on 4.6 YPC and 10 TDs on the ground while three RBs add between 436 and 471 yards, giving Ole Miss the 5th-best running game in the nation at 237.9 YPG. Corall's one standout receiver is WR Drummond (40 catches / 16.5 YPC / 6 TDs). That said, Ole Miss is the ONLYm in the country with SIX players having recorded 100-yard receiving games this season. Defense IS a problem though, with Ole Miss allowing 27.0 PPG (72nd) on 432.7 YPG (104th).

Ole Miss has lost three straight to A&M but in the last meeting (2019 also in Oxford), the Rebels outgained the Aggies 405-337, with the difference being an A&M 62-yard TD on a fumble recovery. That 2019 Ole Miss team couldn't 'hold a candle' to the 2021 edition and as much as I don't much care for Kiffin, I think Ole Miss has an offense that will be able to 'crack' the A&M defense. Don't forget, Alabama put up 522 yards at College Station and this one is in Oxford (note: Ole Miss averages 524.1 PPG). Take the small home dog but we won't need the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET.

Syracuse head coach Dino Babers made a big 'splash' in his third season at Syracuse, going 10-3 with a bowl win in 2018. However, the 'Cuse fell to 5-7 in 2019 and then went 1-10 in 2020. A bowl berth may be a 'must' in 2021 for Babers to save his job. Syracuse comes in off a bye at 5-4 but more importantly the team is 8-1 ATS, including seven straight covers. Syracuse travels to Louisville this Saturday, where head coach Scott Satterfield's Cardinals are 4-5, after going 8-5 in his first season (2019) and 4-7 in his second season (2020). Satterfield became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Appalachian St St to 40 wins from 2015 through 2018. The Mountaineers won bowls under Satterfield in 2015, 2016 and 2017, before leaving to take the Louisville job before the school's 2018 bowl appearance.

RB Sean Tucker is coming off his most productive game of the season (he ran for 207 yards in Syracuse's 21-6 home win over Boston College two weeks ag0) and will take the field looking for an eighth straight 100-yard game. He has 1,267 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) and leads a running game that's averaging 248.8 YPG (3rd) on 5.6 YPC. Dual-threat QB Schrader adds 670 yards rushing (5.6 YPC / 11 TDs), while throwing for 1,119 yards with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. However, he's NOT an accurate passer, completing just 51.8%. Syracuse averages 29.4 PPG (56th) and its defense is holding opponents to 22.6 PPG (44th).

Lining up opposite Schrader is Louisville QB Cunningham, who is the team's leading rusher (690 yards / 5.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and is a much better passer (60.5% / 2,077 yards / 9 TDs & 5 INTs). Joined by RB Mitchell (531 yards / 4.4 YPC / 4 TDs), Louisville also has an impressive running game, averaging 205.6 YPG (24th) on 5.0 YPC. Louisville scores in the neighborhood of Syracuse (28.8 PPG ranks 60th) but its defense is allowing 27.4 PPG, five points higher and also is allowing about 1000 YPG more.

Louisville needs two more wins (in its last three games) to become bowl eligible. Winning here is pretty much a "must-win." Series history is ALL Louisville, as the Cardinals are 9-2 SU and have covered EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with the Orange. The home team has won four straight in the series, with the favorite covering the last seven (more trends in Louisville's favor). Louisville is just 3-2 at home but the two losses have come 34-33 to UVA, which scored a TD with 22 seconds left in the game and to Clemson, which Louisville led 24-17 into the 4th quarter, before the Tigers scored the game's final 13 points. Note that the Cards reached the Clemson two-yard-line but were SOD on that final drive. 

Lay the short price, as Syracuse's ATS winning streak ends at seven.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC Game of the Week is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT), while the Dolphins opened with a 17-16 win at New England, despite being outplayed in every facet of the game. The teams have gone in opposite directions ever since, as Baltimore's won SIX of seven, while the Dolphins had lost SEVEN in a row before beating the hapless Texans 17-9 last Sunday (Houston won in Week 1 and has lost EIGHT in a row since).

Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the season, the Ravens have still managed to lead the NFL in rushing with 161.5 YPG (5.0 YPC). QB Lamar Jackson is the key, as he's run for 600 yards (6.2 YPC / 2 TDs), while also completing 65.0% for 2,209 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. His top receivers are WR Brown (46 / 6 TDs) and TE Andrews (42 / 3 TDs). Baltimore is averaging 27.6 PPG (7th) on 427.9 YPG (2nd). Baltimore's defense no longer resembles the "Ray Lewis era" unit, allowing 24.4 PPG (21st).

While Baltimore has Lamar Jacskson at QB, the Dolphins have 'ping-ponged' between Tua and Brissett. Neither inspires confidence and gets NO help from a running game that averages an NFL-low 75.1 YPG (3.5 YPC). Big things were expected of rookie WR Waddle (from Alabama) but while he has 56 catches, he owns a puny 8.9 YPC average. TE Gesicki (44 / 2 TDs) is solid but basically, the offense is somewhat helpless (17.2 PPG ranks 28th on 297.4 YPG which ranks 30th). Remember Miami's famous "No-Name" defense, this season's defense also has no names but unlike that famous 1970s unit, it can't stop anybody, allowing 26.9 PPG (27th) on 391.9 YPG (30th).

It's true that the Ravens have won only two games by more than six points (have won four games by a combined 12 points) but the Dolphins lack a true identity and don't excel in a single area. Baltimore is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games on this field and has won its three most recent matchups vs Miami with a cumulative 137-16 score. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Pittsburgh at 7:30 ET.

North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (coming off a 6-5 season) entered the current season unranked and was not even among the 19 schools that were in the groups known as "others receiving votes." The two teams take the field Thursday night at Heinz Field for a key game in the ACC's Coastal Division. Pittsburgh is 7-2 overall (21st in the CFP rankings) and at 4-1 in ACC play, controls its destiny in the division, while North Carolina (5-4, 3-3) has had a HUGELY disappointing season but can stay in contention with a victory.

The Tar Heels are fresh off a 58-55 comeback victory against then-No. 9 Wake Forest (Demon Deacons were 8-0), a contest in which they put up 546 yards of total offense. Howell won't win the Heisman but he leads a VERY balanced offense (273.6 YPG passing / 219.4 YPG rushing) by completing 63.1% for 2,408 yards (20 TDs / 7 INTs), while rushing for 699 yards (5.2 YPC / 8 TDs). RB Chandler has 884 rushing yards (6.2 YPC / 13 TDs) and WR Downs has 74 catches (1,104 yards / 8 TDs). North Carolina is averaging 38.9 PPG (12th) but the defense is a mess, It allowed 615 yards against Wake and is allowing 33.4 PPG on the season (111th) on 421.4 YPG (95th).

Howell had more fanfare coming into the season but Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is having a Heisman-like season. He's completing 68.7% for 3,171 yards with 29 TDs and 3 INTs. He's run for 234 yards (4 TDs) and three RBs chip in between 315-to-498 yards for a running game averaging 167.2 YPG. WR Addison (54 catches / 18.3 YPC / 11 TDs) is among the top WRs in the nation and Pittsburgh is tops in the nation in scoring (45.0 PPG) and second in total offense (543.3 YPG). Defensively, Pitt is solid, allowing 22.7 PPG (45th) on 345.0 YPG (37th).

North Carolina has been consistently inconsistent from week to next this season and I expect that trend to continue here against Pittsburgh, which is 'smelling' the possibility of a memorable season. In contrast to NC's  inconsistency, The Panthers have gone above the 50-point mark in four games this season, the most for any Pittsburgh team since 1905. What's more, 7-2 Pittsburgh is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in its seven wins in 2021. Meanwhile, the only consistency North Carolina has shown since the start of the 2020 season is this. The Tar Heels take the field Thursday 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a straight-up win. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MAC Attack-Part 2 is on Ball St at 7:00 ET.

The Ball State Cardinals will travel to Huskie Stadium in DeKalb to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies on Wednesday night. The Cardinals improved to 5-4 on the season with a 31-25 win over the Akron Zips (11/2) and are now 3-2 in the MAC-West. The Northern Illinois Huskies had their 5-game winning streak snapped in a 52-47 loss at Kent St last Wednesday, dropping to 6-3 overall and 4-1 in the MAC-West.

The Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. They lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It didn't start that way, as Ball St opened 1-3 but the Cardinals have won FOUR of their last five. QB Plitt has completed 63.2% for 1,776 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. He has a trio of solid WRs in Hall (56 / 5 TDs), (Jackson 39 / 2 TDs) and Tyler (32 / 5 TDs) plus RB Steele does a nice job (582 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs). Ball St is averaging a modest 25.2 PPG (88th), while allowing 27.6 PPG (75th). More in a bit.

Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi is completing a modest 57.8% and has thrown for 1,853 yards with 12 TDs and six INTs. However, NIU's offense is led by a rushing attack that has averaged 221.4 YPG (10th) and features five players with more than 200 rushing yards (Lombard is in that group with 346 yards and has five TDs). RBs Ducker (579 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Waylee (574 yards / 5.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are the top producers. NIU averages 31.7 PPG (42) with a nice run/pass balance but the team's defense is allowing 33.8 PPG (112th) on 449.3 YPG (114th).

NIU has the better record (6-3 to 5-4) and leads 4-1 to 3-2 in the division, YET Ball St is the small road favorite. That's NO oddsmaker's error, as Balls St is 3-0 SU on the road in MAC play, averaging 38.0 PPG and gets to go up against a Huskie defense that just allowed 52 points on 682 yards the last time out. Yes, NIU had won 10 straight in this series but Ball St has won the last two and makes it THREE in a row here with an easy win and cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi bears at 8:15 ET.

Chicago Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost THREE in a row. Some good news is head coach Matt Nagy is set to return to the sidelines Monday night following a one-game absence in the NFL's COVID-19 protocol and the BETTER news is the likely return of RB David Montgomery, who was back at practice this week after mending from a knee injury he sustained in Week 4. The Steelers opened 1-3 but have now won THREE in a row, outscoring opponents 65-49 during their three-game winning streak.

Speaking of Montgomery (309 yards on 4.5 YPC with 3 TDs in games), "He's so eager to get back," Nagy said. "We'll keep an eye on where he is and we'll see how he looks. That will be key, to see how he looks. He's gotta tell us how he feels and then we'll just get a feel for it's the best thing for us and him, and if it is, and if he's able to go and we feel good about it, he will be up and ready to rock and roll." Khalil Herbert (351 yards / 4.3 YPC) has done a decent job stepping in for Montgomery but the Bears really look forward to Montgomery's return, especially as rookie QB Justin Fields is still developing. Fields is completing 59.5% for 991 yards with just three TDs and seven INTs. However, he is capable of keeping a defense honest by running for 243 yards (5.5 YPC / 2 TDs). Mooney (33 catches) and Robinson (26 catches) are both quality WRs. The Chicago defense is NOT up to past standards, allowing 24.4 PPG.

Big Ben is supposedly washed up but let me note that he's thrown for an average of 254.4 YPG so far and his career average in 240 games is 259 YPG. He has just eight TDs and four INTs with a QB rating of 87.6 but he's never had great QB ratings (career mark is 93.8). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 479 yards rushing (3.7 YPC and 3 TDs) plus has added 37 catches, which is second on the team, In Pittsburgh's three wins, he's run for 294 yards and two TDs plus caught 11 passes and another TD. The Pittsburgh defense is allowing 20.3 PPG.

The Bears are averaging just 15.4 PPG but the Steelers are NOT much better. Let me note that Fields is coming off a breakout performance in Sunday's loss to San Francisco, running for 103 yards and a touchdown while passing for 175 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Big Ben was limited in practice Thursday with pectoral and hip injuries, although he is expected to play. I had a HUGE play on the Steelers last Sunday as an underdog at Cleveland (Pittsburgh won 15-10) but here they are laying a TD. Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS a home favorite this season (lone SU win came by three points in OT) and the Steelers will enter on an 0-6 ATS run as a home favorite going back to last season. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

I was going to use this game as my 10* O/U Game of the Year but then Rodgers was ruled out. I would reccomend a "no play." I am not offering this play for sale.

Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:05 ET.

The LA Chargers opened 4-1 but are hoping to hit the reset button after consecutive losses 38-6 at Baltimore and 27-24 at home vs New England. The Chargers visit the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday, as the 3-5 Eagles return home for the first time since a 28-22 defeat against Tampa Bay on Oct 14. Since then, they lost 33-22 on the road to the Las Vegas Raiders, then posted a 44-6 victory at the 0-8 Detroit Lions last week. The 4-3 Chargers are a half-game back of the Raiders in the AFC West (Den and KC are 4-4), while the 3-5 Eagles trail the first-place Cowboys, who are 6-1 (7-0 ATS!). The NFC East was referred to as the NFC 'Least' in 2020, as Washington took the division with a 7-9 record, but the Cowboys are having 'none of that' so far in 2021.

QB Justin Herbert (63.7% for 1,994 yards with 16 TDs and six INTs) but has struggled in the last two games. In losses to Baltimore and New England, Herbert was 40 for 74 for 418 yards with three TDs and three INTs. It is the first time in his two-year career he has had two straight games with a passer rating under 70. RB Austin Ekeler is a true all-purpose back, rushing for 420 yards (5.0 YPC / 5 TDs), while adding 33 receptions with three TDs. He is tied for second in the NFL among RBs with eight scrimmage TDs and has also gone over 100 scrimmage yards in five games. WR Keenan Allen is tied for fifth in the AFC with 45 receptions and fellow WR Mike Williams (35 catches) is tied for second in the AFC with six TDs catches. Defensively, the Chargers have to tighten things up, as they are allowing 25.3 PPG (24th).

Hurts (61.3 % / 1,819 yards / 10 TDs and 4 INTs) is now an established starter at QB and also leads the etm in rushing with 432 yards on 5.9 YPC with 5 TDs. Sanders (300 yards / 4.8 YPC / 3 TDs) is on injured reserve and will miss at least two more games with an ankle injury (NOT good news). Heisman-winner Smith has 33 catches (12.8 YPC) but just one TD and fellow WR Watkins has a modest 20 catches with an 18.3 YPC average but zero TDs. With Ertz traded, Goedert (24 catches / 14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) is now the no. 1 TE. Defensively, the Eagles may have dominated Detroit (see above) but on the season, Philadelphia is allowing 23.9 PPG.

I listed some impressive LA wins earlier (see above) but Philly's wins have come over the 3-4 Falcons, the 4-4 Panthers (who were in the middle of an 0-4 slide) and the 0-8 Lions. The Eagles are real 'giant killers,' aren't they! Philadelphia has lost all THREE home games this year and the Eagles have not had much success lately against AFC foes having gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight such contests. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five on the road and 7-2 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS losses. Bottom line...The Chargers are a MUCH better team and the 'Price is Sure Right!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET.

The New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers are both 4-4 and square off in this AFC/NFC matchup in Charlotte. The Pats are in Year 2 of the post-Brady era and in Year 1 of what the team hopes will be the Mac Jones era. New England opened 1-3 but has gone 3-1 its last four games, averaging a healthy 33.8 PPG. In contrast, Carolina jumped out to a surprising 3-0 start but followed with FOUR straight losses, before getting back to .500 with a 19-13 win last Sunday in Atlanta.

The Pats finally have their offense revved up at a pretty good clip, coming off wins of 54-13 at home vs the Jets and 27-24 at the Chargers. Rookie QB Jones is completing 68.1% for 1,997 yards but owns a modest 9/6 TD-to-INT ratio. Meyers is the team's leading receiver with 45 catches but he averages just 9.5 YPC and doesn't have a TD catch, WRs Bourne (26 catches / 14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and Agholor (22 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) have been excellent additions and the TE combo of Henry and Smith have a combined 45 catches with five TDs. RB Harris (517 yards / 4.4 YPC / 6 TDs) is having a nice season but New England averages only 101.1 YPG rushing (22nd). Belichick is a defense-first coach and this year's unit is good (20.8 PPG ranks 8th) but not great.

Sam Darnold came out of the gate 'on fire,' averaging 297.3 YPG passing through four games. The Panthers opened 3-0 but a 36-28 loss at Dallas began a four-game losing streak. As noted above, Carolina won last Sunday but in the team's last four games, Darnold has averaged just 156.3 YPG through the air. He left in the fourth quarter at Atlanta, entering the concussion protocol, and P.J. Walker filled in. Darnold did little in Wednesday's practice, also dealing with a shoulder ailment. Panthers head coach Matt Rhule said Walker has been put in challenging situations. "One of the things about being a back-up quarterback for us, you're always going in in a dire situation," Rhule said. "I don't think there's a guy in the locker room who doesn't believe in him."

Darnold is no star but I'd prefer to see him play but I'm taking the home underdog Panthers here because of its defense, which is allowing 19.9 PPG (5th) on 295.6 PPG (2nd). Carolina held the Falcons to just 213 yards of total offense last Sunday, as "Matty Ice" had one of his worst days ever in his long career throwing for only 146 yards while being picked off twice. If the Panthers can do that to Ryan, they certainly can do that to Jones, who has thrown just one TD pass on the road. This is the Patriots’ second consecutive road game (played in LA last Sunday), and they are 2-7 ATS following a point spread cover since Brady left. As for the Panthers, they have excelled in this spot, going 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a home underdog in the +2.5 to +4.5 points range.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* CFB 'Late Show' is on Hawaii at 11:00 ET.

The San Diego State Aztecs travel to 'paradise' for a Saturday game with Hawaii's Rainbow Warriors. SDSU opened the season 7-0, climbing imto the AP-25 rankings, with key wins over Utah (33-31), San Jose St (19-13 in 2 OTs) and Air Force (20-14). However, the Aztecs lost 30-20 last Saturday at home to Fresno St and fell out of the AP top-25. Maybe surprisingly, the Aztecs were ranked 24th in the first CFP ranking of the season (released this past Tuesday). Hawaii (4-5) has already played nine games and is hardly concerned with rankings but is just trying to get back to .500 with a win. Hawaii will play 13 games this season and bowl eligibility is a real possibility.

The SDSU situation at QB is hardly a settled matter, although it looks like Johnson, who has started the last two games, has taken over from Brookshire. Neither have put up impressive numbers and it doesn't help that the SDSU receiving corps' leading receiver has only 17 catches. RB Bell has 66 yards on 4.8 YPC with 6 TDs and its running game 'drives' the offense, averaging 200.1 YPG (34th). The Aztecs are averaging 29.6 PPG, which is more than enough when the team's defense is holding opponents to 17.5 PPG (12th) on 305.1 YPG (also 12th).

Hawaii QB Cordeiro is completing just 55.4% but has thrown for 1,706 yards with 10 TDs. Hawaii has nice balance, averaging 257.9 YPG passing and 157.7 YPG on the ground. The RB tandem of Hunter (558 yards / 7.2 YPC) and Parson (433 yards / 5.3 YPC / 6 TDs) is joined by all-purpose back Turner, who has 299 rushing yards (5.8 YPC and 7 TDs) plus is the team's leading receiver wit 52 catches (3 TDs). WR Mardner has 33 catches on 18.6 YPC with 3 TDs. The Hawaii defense is THE problem, allowing 33.9 PPG (114th) on 461.1 YPG (117th).

Many fall into the trap of playing on a team that has opened with a winning streak of say six or seven games, coming off its first loss, assuming a bounce back. However, that is often NOT the case and I think the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This will be San Diego State’s THIRD road trip in four games and considering the opposite direction of travel, I believe there is a strong chance that the Aztecs could 'slip up' for a second straight game. Hawaii is 3-1 at home and note that in its three contests vs FBS opponents, the Hawaii defense is allowing 25.0 PPG, more than EIGHT points less than its season average. Grab those points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET.

The Kentucky Wildcats opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryant era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. Losing the physical battle at No. 1 Georgia is one thing but doing so two weeks later at Mississippi State is another thing. The Wildcats lost 31-17 last Saturday in Starkville. Kentucky is aiming for a strong November that would put it in position for a good bowl berth. Head coach Mark Stoops didn't mince words when asked about last week's 31-17 loss at Mississippi State, "Played like crap," he said. "Not very many good things this past week for sure. Fell short in all areas. Not very pleased with our performance. Rough day at the office. They played harder than us, they were more physical."

Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and wemt 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee and the Vols opened 4-2 but then lost a close one at home to Ole Miss (31-26), before wearing down in the fourth quarter at Alabama, allowing the game's final 21 points in a 52-24 loss. The Vols had last weekend off and now travel to Lexington to take on longstanding rival Kentucky. QB Hooker is a true dual threat, completing 68.7% for 1,578 yards with 17 TDs and just 2 INTS. He adds 416 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 4 TDs. RB Evans has 516 yards on 6.4 YPC with 6 TDs, as the Vols are averaging 225.4 YPG (10th) on 5.0 YPC. WRs Jones (31 catches / 14.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Tillman (30 catches / 14.9 / 4 TDs) are Hooker's best targets. The Vols are averaging a healthy 37.4 PPG (17th) but allow 26.5 PPG (71st).

Kentucky QB Levis had a VERY poor game against Miss St (just 150 yards and three INTs) but has had a decent season (66.3% for 1,476 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs). RB Rodrigeuz has run for 809 yards (6.0 YPC / 5 TDs) and WR Robinson (58 catches / 11.1 YPC / 5 TDs) represent Kentucj\kty's key offensive performers. Kentucky averages PPG (27.0 PPG), 10 PPG less than Tennessee but its defense allows 20.8 PPG (34th) on 335.6 YPG (34th).

Here's the history of this series. Kentucky won last year's meeting 34-7 in Knoxville, so the Wildcats are looking for their first back-to-back wins over the Volunteers since 1976-77. The Vols have won 31 of the last 34 games with the Wildcats and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Knoxville. Kentucky loses its third straight, while Heupel's team gets a much-needed win. The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Purdue at 3:30 ET.

The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, as the Spartans and Boilermakers meet Saturday at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Michigan St comes in 8-0, including 5-0 in the Big Ten. The Spartans are currently ranked 5th in the AP, the first time Michigan St has been ranked in the top-5 since 2015 (Michigan St made its lone CFP appearance that season). Purdue enters 5-3 (3-2 in the Big Ten but reminded all of its 'Giant-Killer' reputation by beating then-No. 2 Iowa on the road back on Oct 10, ending the Hawkeyes' 12-game winning streak.

Michigan State is fresh off a big matchup vs Michigan. In that one, the Spartans pulled off an epic four-point victory, 37-33. The term 'epic' is NOT an overstatement, as MSU trailed by 16 points (30-14) in the third quarter. Michigan St QB Thorne had a modest 196 yards passing plus two picks but freshman RB Kenneth Walker ran for 197 yards and a whopping FIVE touchdowns. Thorne has had a solid season, completing 61.5% for 1,897 yards (15 TDs and 6 INTs) but Walker is having a Heisman-caliber season. He leads the nation with 1,194 yards on 6.8 YPC with 14 TDs. Thorne has a trio of WRs, all averaging 15.0-plus YPC. The trio consists of Reed (33 / 19.5 YPC / 5 TDs), Nailor (31 / 18.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mosley (21 / 15.3 YPC / 0 TDs). A quick look at the Michigan St defense shows them allowing 20.5 PPG (30th) but also 424.4 YPG (103rd!).

The question may be, can Purdue's offense take advantage of a MSU defense that has allowed a lot of yards?  O'Connell has taken over at QB for Plummer (7 TDs / 0 INTs) and while he's completing 71.0%, he's thrown nine TDs and eight INTs. Purdue has no one within 'miles' of Walker, as Doerue leads with just 363 yards (3.9 YPC / one TD). Purdue is averaging 80.5 YPG (127th) on 2.5 YPC. However, Purdue can move the ball through the air with WR Bell (53 / 14.8 YPC / 4 TDs) being among the best WRs in the nation. TE Durham has 36 catches (4 TDs) plus WRs Wright and Anthony have combined for 60 catches and four TDs. For Purdue to pull the upset, its defense will have to be the reason. The Boilermakers are allowing 17.1 PPG (10th) on 315.6 YPG (18th).

Michigan St is off its HUGE comeback win over hated-Michigan and now must take on the 'SPOILERMAKERS.' After beating No. 2 Iowa on Oct 10 as an unranked team, Purdue has now beaten a team ranked in the top-two of the AP Top 25 as an unranked team for the NINTH time in program history, more than TWICE as many as any other school. Naturally, I'll take the points but I'm sending out an Upset Alert!

Good luck...Larry