My 10* Game of the Month (Super Bowl LIV) is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens ended the regular season on a 12-game winning streak to enter as the AFC's No. 1 seed at 14-2. San Francisco survived in Week 17 at Seattle, holding on (by inches) for a 26-21 win at Seattle to finish 13-3 and earn the NFC's No. 1 seed. If the two No. 1 seeds had advanced to the Super Bowl, we were looking at a replay of Super XLVII (nicknamed the Harbaugh Bowl), when Baltimore beat San Francisco 34-31 to win the 2012 title. However, the Ravens were upset by the Titans, so on Championship Sunday, a rematch of Super Bowl I loomed, if KC could win (as expected) over Tennessee and the Packers could upset the 49ers. KC held up its end but Green Bay (much to my chagrin) were NO match for San Francisco. The leaves us with the 49ers looking to match the Pats and Steelers with the franchise's SIXTH Super Bowl title, after becoming only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games. The 1999 St Louis Rams also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. Not to be outdone in "the history" department, the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl 50 years after last appearing in one. The Chiefs played in and won Super Bowl IV 16-7 over the Vikings, the final Super Bowl prior to the AFL-NFL merger. That 50-year span sets a record for longest stretch between Super Bowl appearances for any club (note: As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs also played in Super I, losing to Lombardi's Packers, 35-10).

San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG. However, the Niners D has been "back in form" in the postseason, holding the Vikings to 147 yards and just seven FDs (Minnesota was 2 of 12 on 3rd downs and 0 of 2 on 4th downs). The Packesr did gain 358 yards in teh NFC championship game but trailed 27-0 at the half and two 4th-quarter TD drives accounted for 167 of the team's total of 358 yards. San Francisco averaged 29.2 PPG on the season (2nd) and its running game, second-best to only Baltimore's in the regular season at 144.1 YPG, has led the way in the playoffs.The 49ers controlled the game vs the Vikings with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards) and then 'exploded' vs the Packers by rushing for 285 yards (6.8 YPA). Mostert set a team playoff record with 220 yards and four TDs. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession but finished just 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT vs Minnesota. He was no more than a 'spectator' in the win over Green Bay, going 6 of eight for 77 yards (no TDs or INTs).

KC has thrilled its fans in reaching this season's "ultimate" game. The Chiefs fell behind Houston 24-0 but then scored a TD on SEVEN consecutive possessions in a 51-31 win. They then fell behind Tennessee 10-0 and 17-7, before again taking control. KC scored 28 straight points to open a 35-17 lead and win, 35-24. Leading the way is the NFL's most exciting (best?) QB, Patrick Mahomes. His performances have been dazzling, as he's completed EXACTLY 23 of 35 passes in both wins, throwing for 615 yards with eight TDs and not a single INT. He's also been KC's leading rusher (106 yards / 7.1 YPA), including a SPECTACULAR 27-yeard TD scamper right before the half vs the Titans. RB Damien Williams has been acquitted himself quite well, rushing for 92 yards (three TDs) while adding seven catches and one TD. TE Kelce was a 'beast' vs Houston (10 catches for 134 yards and three TDs) but then took a 'backseat' to WRs Watkins and Hill vs Tennessee. Watkins caught seven passes for 114 yards and one TD, with Hill adding five catches and two TDs. KC's D struggled during the first part of the season but held opponents to just 11.5 PPG during the team's six-game winning streak to end the regular season. KC's defense was hit hard by Houston early but shut down the Texans in the second half, allowing just SEVEN points. It was deja vu all over again against Tennessee, as the Titans were also held to just seven second-half points. More notable, Titans RB Henry came into the AFC championship game averaging 196.0 YPG rushing (7.1 YPA) in his previous three games but KC completely shut him down, holding him to 69 yards on 19 carries (3.6 YPA).

Kansas City has won EIGHT straight games, all by SEVEN points or more, with its average winning margin being 16.1 PPG. Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo (a glorified game-manager) is a "no-brainer." Yes, San Francisco's running game is superb but the Chiefs are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry during their last six games plus Kansas City has limited long completions and the Niners' WRs leave a  lot to be desired (TE Kittle is the biggest threat). What's more, KC's pass rush has been greatly upgraded with the return from injury of premier DT Chris Jones and the late-season signing of veteran DE Terrell Suggs.

Mostert had a game for the ages against the Packers in the NFC championship game and NO WAY he comes ANYWHERE close to that kind of performance, here. I'm not going to 'beat up' on Jimmy G but c'mon, him vs Mahomes? The only QBs the 49ers faced who can be compared to Mahomes this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. The Saints scored 46 points against the 49ers, the Falcons scored 29 points at San Francisco and won, while the Seahawks averaged 24 points and were inches away from a TD that would have given them a season sweep. Garoppolo doesn’t have the arm, touch, mobility and craftiness Mahomes possesses. Garoppolo also doesn’t have the speed and depth the Chiefs have at the WR position. This could get 'ugly' for San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

If the San Francisco 49ers can beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, they will become only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games.The Niners lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the year in Week 3 of the 2018 season and 'limped' to a 4-12 record. However, the team is now ONE win away from joining the 1999 St Louis Rams who also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. That said, the Packers have a pretty good story themselves, as Packers opemend teh 2019 season off back-to-back losing seasons (7-9 in 2017 and 6-9-1 in 2018), for the first time since 1990 and 1991. At the start of the current season, Green Bay playing in the NFC championship game was only slightly more far-fetched than San Francisco doing so

These teams played earlier this season in Week 12 in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers lost a fumble on Green Bay's first possession, setting up a two-yard TD drive that gave San Francisco the lead. The Niners then broke it open with long TD passes to Deebo Samuel late in the second quarter and to George Kittle in the third quarter of a 37-8 win. Rodgers threw for just 104 yards (career-worst 3.2 YPA) and got sacked five times. The loss left Green Bay at 8-3 but the Packers would end the regular season by winning their last FIVE games, allowing just 14.2 PPG to claim the NFC's No. 2 seed. The Niners were 10-1 after that win and went 3-2 the rest of the way, holding the Seahawks inches away from a TD in the fianl seconds of Week 17, claiming the NFC's top-seed. San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG.

However, San Francisco's defense humbled the vikings last weekend (Saturday), holding Minnesota to 147 total yards in a 27-10 win. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession and finished 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT. San Francisco's running game ranked second to only Baltimore's in the regular season and controlled the game with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards). Getting back to the San Francisco D, Minnesota was held to just seven FDs and was 2 of 13 on third downs plus 0-2 on fourth down tries. Green Bay played last Sunday and dominated Seattle in the first half, taking a 21-3 lead. The Packers led 28-10 in the late 3rd quarter but Russell Wilson NEVER gives up. Seattle cut it to 28-17 and then to 28-23, before missing a two-point try. Seattle only got the ball back ONCE after that (four plays) plus Rodgers converted two HUG third downs late, sealing the win.

These two franchises have combined for NINE Super Bowl titles and have a rich history when it comes to the playoffs. This will be their EIGHT meeting in the past 25 postseasons, three more than any other rivalry. In fact, the only other matchup to occur more often is Cowboys-Rams, which happened nine times. So here we are. I doubt anyone thinks the 49ers will rout the Packers again. Then again, maybe some do. Count me as one who DOES NOT!

Taking Jimmy G over Kirk Cousins is one thing but over Aaron Rodgers in an NFC title, while laying a TD? As of Friday afternoon, there were 7.5s galore. Rodgers had an off year, but threw for 4,002 yards (Jimmy G had 3,978) with 26 TDs and just four INTs (Jimmy G's ratio was 27-13). In the Division Round, Rodgers was 16-of-27 for 243 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (113.7 QB rating), while Jimmy G was 11-of-19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT (74.7 rating). San Francisco's running game has better depth but Green Bay's Aaron Jones (1,084 rush yards, 474 receiving yards and 19 total TDs) will be the best RB of the field. Kittle's a terrific TE and gets the edge over the aging Jimmy Graham but the best WR on the field (by far!) is Davante Adams, who had eight catches for 180 yards (2 TDs) vs Seattle. San Francisco's D gets the edge but I don't think by much. Remember the Niners' second-half troubles and Green Bay's D finishing by allowing 14.2 PPG its final five games. Is shutting down Kirk Cousins proof it can be done to Rodgers/. Especially, when Rodgers not only has great motivation to "make up for" for his Week 12 'nightmare' plus he also has to realize his Super Bowl 'window' is closing.

One final reference to Green Bay's Week 12 loss at San Francisco. Discount that contest and know that the Packers were 8-0 SU  & ATS against EVERY other above-.500 team they faced in 2019. I'm grabbing the points and hoping we see a Super Bowl I rematch, Green Bay-Kansas City (note: I have NO play on Ten/KC on Sunday).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Clemson at 8:00 ET.

Clemson is playing in the national championship game for the FOURTH time in five years and comes in as not only the defending champs but with a 29-game winning streak. However, Clemson is the No. 3 seed and will play the role of underdog when it takes on No. 1 LSU. No one could seriously argue against LSU being the No. 1 seed (and favorite). That claim was punctuated by its 63-28 rout of No. 4 Oklahoma in the semifinals (more shortly). Clemson edged No. 2 Ohio St 29-23 in the other semifinal, a game which could have gone either way.
Joe Burrow and the LSU offense 'steals' most (if not all) of the headlines but Clemson’s offense is similarly dangerous. QB Trevor Lawrence has 3,431 passing yards with 36 TDs and just eight INTs. FIVE of his INTs came in Clemson's first three games, meaning he threw just THREE over his last 11 games, while throwing 31 TDs (he has 22 TDPs and zero INTs in 180 pass attempts over his last seven games). Lawrence also has 514 rushing yards with eight TDs. RB Travis Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards / 8.0 YPA / 18 TDs) as well as 32 catches (1,932 scrimmage yards, 22 combined TDs). Etienne caught three passes for 98 yards and two TDs against Ohio St. Higgins has 56 catches (19.9 YPC / 13 TDs) and Ross 61 catches (12.9 YPC / 8 TDs). Clemson's D ranked first in the nation during the season in both scoring D (10.6 PPG) and total D (224.7 YPG). Clemson did allow Ohio St to gain 516 yards but Ohio St's 23 points were more than 25 points less that the team's nation's-best average of 48.7 PPG.

Joe Burrow was the runaway Heisman winner and entered the game against Oklahoma leading the nation's No. 1 offense (554.5 YPG), while averaging 47.8 PPG (3rd-best). All Burrow and LSU did was score 49 points in the first half against the Sooners, as Burrow threw for seven TDs (four to WR Justin Jefferson). Burrow would add a rushing TD in the second half of the 63-28 victory, finishing with 493 passing yards and eight total TDs. Burrow will enter this game completing 77.6% for 5,208 yards with 55 TDs and only six INTs. LSU’s is the first team in history with a 5,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher (Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1,304 / 6.6 YPA / 16 TDs), and two 1,000-yard receivers (Ja’Marr Chase 1,559 / 20.8 YPC / 18 TDs & Justin Jefferson 1,434 / 14.1 YPC / 18 TDs). Edwards-Helaire was nursing a hamstring injury and carried just twice for 14 yards vs Oklahoma  but he's had two weeks to get healthy. Lost in LSU's offensive 'explosion' was the fact that the team's oft-criticized defense held Oklahoma to 322 yards, far below its 554.2-yard average coming into the game.

Is LSU the "irresistible force" which can't be stopped? Clemson's offense averaged 46.5 (4th) during the season on 547.7 YPG (3rd), so don't sell it short. Then there's that Clemson D and if any unit can somewhat hold Burrow and Co. in check, it would be Clemson's.  Note that Clemson had out-gained 28 consecutive opponents before being out-gained by 99 yards by Ohio State.It's hard not to like (love?) Ed Orgeron but Clemson's Dabo Swinney reign of postseason 'terror' began with a 25-24 win over LSU in the 2012 Peach Bowl. Clemson's game-winning points came with just 1:18 to play against Ohio St and its D then sealed the win with an end zone INT with just 37 seconds to play. With that win, Swinney pushed his bowl mark to 9-2 SU and postseason ATS record to 10-1 since 2012. Throw in the fact the No. 1 seed has not won the national title in the first five years of the College Football Playoff and Clemson plus the points looks even better. In fact, top seeds have twice bowed out in the semifinals and are 0-3 in the title game. Make that 0-4. "Orange is the new Black?" How about "Clemson is the new Alabama!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

The 13-3 Green Bay Packers rebounded from 6-9-1 season in 2018 to earn the NFC's No. 2 seed. That gave teh Pack a first round bye and now a home game against the 5th-seeded Seattle Seahawks, who got past the injury-depleted Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, 17-9. Seattle win last Sunday gave them an NFL-best 8-1 record on the road, as do-everything QB Russell Wilson threw for 325 yards and a TD plus added a team-high 45 on the ground. Aaron Rodgers is nearly 10 years removed from his lone Super Bowl title but the 36-year-old feels Green Bay is poised to make another run at the championship.

Wilson was te driving force behind the Seattle offense all season, as he threw for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just six INTs (106.3). He was backed by a strong running game for most of the season (137.5 YPG ranked 4th) but one-by-one, Seattle RBs got hurt and last Sunday, Homer and Lynch ran for just 19 yards on 17 carries. Lockett was Wilson's favorite target during the season (82 catches / 12.9 YPC / 8 Tds but Sunday it was Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs), who was the star. The second-round WR set an NFL postseason rookie record with 160 yards receiving on seven catches, including a 53-yard TD in the third quarter. "It was fun and it was scary at the same time. The way the season's been going, this team, you know I didn't want this to be our last time playing football," the 22-year-old said. Seattle's defense is no longer referred to as "the Legion of Boom," as it allowed 24.9 PPG (22nd) but the D held Philly to just three FGs and 282 total yards, while getting SEVEN sacks!

Rodgers was NOT great in 2019 but he did top 4,000 yards (4,002) and had 26 TDs compared to just FOUR interceptions. RB Aaron Jones had a breakout season, rushing for 1,084 yards (4.6 YPA / 16 TDs) plus caught 49 passes for 474 yards with three TDs. WR Adams played in just 12 games but led the way with 83 catches. FIVE more players caught between 34 and 49 passes, as Jones led that group while TE Jimmy Graham had just 38 receptions in 2019 to mark his lowest total since his rookie year in 2010. The Green Bay offense was middle-of-the-pack all season, averaging 23.5 PPG (15th) on 345.5 YPG (18th). The defense more than held up its own, allowing 19.6 PPG (9th).

For all Seattle's road success this season, the Seahawks have lost EIGHT straight at Lambeau Field and are 1-9 all time in the Packers' stadium. Wilson is 0-3 as a starter at Lambeau with a passer rating of 60.4. Wilson has completed just 55 of 96 his passes (57.3%) for 604 yards with SIX interceptions and just three TDs. What's more, Seattle lost a heart-breaker at home on Dec 29 against the 49ers (could have won NFC West with a win) and then had to fly cross-country to play the Eagles in a Sunday afternoon playoff game. The Seahawks returned to the West Coast after that win and now flies to the Midwest to face Green Bay. That kind of traveling can take a toll. One more thing, the forecast calls for a kickoff temperature in the low 20s, but a potential winter storm is shaping up to arrive in the region Saturday night, bringing gusty winds and up to 10 inches of snow.NONE of this helps the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature' LEGEND Play is on the SF 49ers at 4:35 ET.

Neither the Vikings nor 49ers were in the postseason last year but are two of FOUR teams left in the NFC as the meet at Levi's Stadium on Saturday in the Divisional Round. The Vikings finished 10-6 to earn the No. 6 seed in the NFC and last Sunday, knocked the 13-3 Saints out of the playoffs with a 26-20 OT win in New Orleans. RB Dalvin Cook gained 130 yards from scrimmage (94 yards on the ground with two TDs), after missing the last two regular-season games with a shoulder injury. Kirk Cousin, with a reputation for NOT winning in prime time or against the league's better teams, passed for 242 yards without an interception. He finished with 242 yards and in OT, threw a "perfect" 43-yard pass to Adam Thielen that set up his four-yard game-winning TD pass to TE Rudolph. It was Minnesota's first road playoff win since Jan 9, 2005 (2004 season), when the Vikings beat the rival Packers at Lambeau Field in the wild-card round. The Vikings now get to play top seed San Francisco on Saturday.

The 49er were just 4-12 last season, as QB Jimmy Garoppolo was lost for the season in Week 3. However,  Garoppolo was healthy all season (more later) and the 49ers rode their defense and a 'soft' first-half schedule to open the season 8-0. The 49ers' 5-3 record in the second half was good enough for them to finish 13-3 and via tie-breakers, earn the NFC's top seed. A closer look at San Francisco' second half reveals a heart-breaking 30-27 home OT loss to Seattle (49ers had multiple chances to win), a 20-17 loss at Baltimore (which ended the season on a 14-game winning streak) and a "are you kidding me" 29-22 loss to the Falcons in Week 15 (need to see it to believe it!). Tfive wins came over Arizona, a rout of the 13-3 Packers, a "Game of the Year" 48-46 win at New Orleans, a 34-31 win over last year's NFC champs (Rams) and a thrilling 26-21 win at Seattle, avenging that OT loss and clinching the No. 1 seed. DON'T sell the 49ers short.

Kirk Cousins completed 69.1 % of. his passes this season, throwing for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and just six INTs (career high 107.4 QB rating). Dalvin Cook (1,135 rushing yards /  4.5 YPA / 13 TDs) plus caught 53 passes for 519 yards. He's one of the league's best all-purpose backs and one only need to look at Minnesota's MNF Week 16 loss to Green Bay (Cook sat out) to see his value. Diggs led the team in receptions (63), YPC (17.9) and tied for a team-high with six TDs. Thielen was able to play in just 10 games and caught a modest 30 passes (also six TDs) and his value was on display last Sunday (when healthy), as he caught seven for 129 yards. TE Rudolph (39) and his backup Smith (36) both contributed, with Rudolph tying Diggs and Thielen with six TD catches. The Minnesota D doesn't get enough credit but it allowed just 18.9 PPG (6th-best). Just ask Brees about the Viking D, which held him to 208 yards and a QB rating of 49.6 (note: Not counting Week 2 when Brees left after five attempts, the future HOFer had QB ratings of over 100 in EIGHT of 10 starts!).

Garoppolo is 21-5 as a starter in the NFL (19-2 with the 49ers) and that's been his 'calling card." I've questioned his talent before but he's thrown for more yards than Cousins (3,978), while also completing 69.1% His 27-13 ratio is not far off Cousin's and his QB rating is 102.0. The 49ers don't have a RB in the class of Cook but the trio of Mostert, Brieda and Coleman took turns contributing throughout the season, as San Francisco's 144.1 YPG ground was second to only Baltimore all-time record of 3.296 rushing yards (206.0 YPG). TE Kittle (85 catches / 5 TDs) is the team's best pass-catcher but Samuel (57 catches / 14.1 YPC) and Sanders, are capable. Sanders caught 36 passes in 10 games (after being acquired from Denver) and remember, he averaged 85 catches for 1,200 yards and 20 TD catches from 2014-16 with the Broncos. Yes, San Francisco's D dropped off in the second half, after allowing only 11.0 PPG through its first seven games but when all the dust had settled, San Francisco ranked second in total D (281.8 YPG) and 8th in scoring at 19.4 PPG.

Kudos to Minnesota for winning at New Orleans but should we now ignore this factoid? The  Vikings visit Levi Stadium (outdoors, unlike New Orleans' dome), having gone 1-14-1 SU and 2-14 ATS their last 16 road games against a winning team in an outdoor stadium!! The San Francisco pass DS was No. 1 in allowing only 169.2 YPG, while Minnesota's downfield pass coverage has had more than just occasional  problems this season. South Carolina rookie Deebo Samuel and vet Emmanuel Sanders allow Garoppolo to look downfield more (plus use TE Kittle over the middle) and that's why the 49ers were able to average 29.2 PPG, second to again, only Baltimore. "I'm just glad Kirk can't win big games, apparently," Rudolph 'crowed' after his game-winning TD grab against the Saints. "We proved that one wrong today." My bet is that Rudolph will 'eat' those words come Saturday evening!

Good luck...Larry

My NFC 10* Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks (moneyline) at 4:40 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles 'rescued' their season by winning FOUR straight games to end the regular season, all against division rivals. The Eagles beat the Giants twice, the Redskins once and the Cowboys in a key Week 16 showdown, giving them the NFC East (Least?) title with a 9-7 record. Philly is the No. 4 seed and that means the team draws the NFC's No. 5 seed, which is the 11-5 Seattle Seahawks. Seattle would have secured home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs had tight end Jacob Hollister crossed the goal line on his fourth-down catch in the waning moments of a 26-21 loss to San Francisco last Sunday. Seattle's stupid five-yard penalty shortly before that, was an even bigger flub! Anyway, a matter of a few inches now results in an approximate 2,400-mile trek from the Emerald City to the City of Brotherly Love.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson has had a remarkable season, considering (more in a bit). He's thrown for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just five INTs, giving him a 106.3 QB rating. Wilson 'keeps ticking' despite devastating injuries to the team's running game. Chris Carson (1,230 yards / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs), Rashaad Penny and C.J. Prosise have all endured season-ending injuries over the last three weeks. Marshawn Lynch was summoned from retirement and rushed for 34 yards and a TD last Sunday, while rookie Travis Homer added 62 on the ground and caught five passes for 30 yards. Russell's top targets are Lockett (82 catches / 8 TDs) and second-year player Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs). The offense NEEDS to produce, as Seattle's once-proud defense is a mere shell of its former self, allowing 24.9 PPG (22nd) on 381.6 YPG (26th).

The Eagles know "all about" playing through injuries. WRs DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor are all done for the season (Jackson only played three games). TEs Ertz (88 catches / 6 TDs) and Goedert (58 catches / 5 TDs) have stepped up "big time" but Ertz missed last Sunday and is no better than questionable for this game. Rookie RB Miles Sanders  (818 rushing yards / 50 catches for 509 yards) had a terrific season but hurt his ankle last Sunday (he is listed as probable and says he will play). RB Boston Scott (practice squad) "saved the day" last Sunday vs the Giants, scoring three TDs in the second-half of Philly's "must win" 34-17 victory over the Giants. Carson Wentz has endured all season, throwing for 4,039 yards with 27 TDs and just seven INTs. Philly's defense has gotten healthier week by week and ended the regular season allowing 22.1 PPG (15th) on 331.7 YPG (10th).

Carson Wentz was forced to watch from the sideline as Nick Foles became a local legend, leading the Philadelphia Eagles to the franchise's first Super Bowl title two years ago. Wentz was a spectator again last season when Foles rallied the Eagles to three straight wins, an unlikely playoff berth and a wild-card victory. Wentz avoided injuries while seemingly everyone around him went down, set franchise passing records and led the Eagles (9-7) to four consecutive wins down the stretch and their second NFC East title in three seasons. Now, it's "his time." However, the Eagles finished Week 17 missing seven starters on offense. Philly's here only because the NFC East is a 'joke.' the team's four-game winning streak, all against division rivals, came over the the 4-12 Giants (the twice), the 3-13 Redskins and the dysfunctional 8-8 Cowboys. Meanwhile, Seattle lost out on the NFC's No. 1 seed by a "matter of inches" and posted a NFL-best 7-1 road record this season. Seattle won 17-9 at Philly in Week 12, giving Russell Wilson a 4-0 career record over the Eagles. What changes here? NOTHING!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the NE Patriots at 8:15 ET.

The New England Patriots jumped out to an 8-0 start but were humbled 37-20 at Baltimore in a SNF game in Week 9. The Pats managed to win FOUR of their next six games (just 3-3 ATS) and were all but penciled in for a first-round bye, as all they needed was to beat lowly Miami at home in their regular-season home finale to clinch the No. 2 seed in the AFC. However, as a 17.5-point favorite, the Pats lost 27-24 and now New England will play in the wild-card round for the first time since 2009. Coming to Foxoboro on Saturday night will be the 9-7 Tennessee Titans, who saw their season 'turn' when former Heisman-winner Marcus Mariota was benched in favor of former Miami QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans' 16-0 loss at Denver left the team at 2-4 but Tannehill's play at QB coupled with the running of  Derrick Henry, saw Tennessee go 7-3 (6-3-1 ATS) over its final 10 games to earn the AFC's final playoff spot.

Tannehill finished the regular season completing 70.3 percent for 2,742 yards with 22 TDs and six INTs, as his QB rating of 117.5 was tops among all QBs. Rookie A.J. Brown caught 52 passes for a 20.2 YPC average with eight TDs. RB Henry topped 100 yards in FIVE of his last six games. He sat out Week 16 but returned in Week 17 to run for 211 yards with three TDs in the 35-14 win at Houston that nailed down the AFC's No. 6 seed. Henry averaged 149.3 YPG over his final five game to surpass Cleveland Nick Chubb to lead the NFL with 1,540 rushing yards (5.1 YPA / 16 TDs). FYI...He averaged 146.3 YPG in his last four contests of 2018 (it's becoming a tradition!). The Tennessee D allows 20.7 PPG (12th) but its pass D is shaky, allowing 255.0 YPG to rank 24th.

There is NOTHING shaky about the New England defense, as despite its late collapse vs Miami last Sunday, the Pats finished No. 1 in the NFL in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG). New England has needed its defense in 2019, as its offense has fallen off. Brady did throw for 4,057 yards with 24 TDs and just eight INTs but his QB rating of 88.0 was far below his usual standards. Edelman had 100 catches but the receiving corps, as a whole, is one of the worst of Brady's career (RB White had 72 catches and was the ONLY other player with more than 30 catches). Michel ran for 912 yards (just 3.7 YPA) and no other RB had more than 302 rushing yards. The Pats rank 18th with 106.4 YPG rushing on 3.8 YPA.

Many are calling for the Pats to struggle here but I'm NOT one of them. Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won three Super Bowl rings in eight seasons with New England under coach Bill Belichick and said, "This is about the Titans and our preparation to go up there and face a team that’s won three Super Bowls in the last five years. They’re 8-0 at home (in the playoffs) in that span. They’ve got the No. 1 defense. They’ve got the best coach. They’ve got the best QB. So it’s quite a challenge.” Well said. Ryan Tannehill saw plenty of New England during his tenure with Miami and he has few good memories. It's early January in New England and in a Brady vs Tannehill QB matchup, as well as a HC matchup of Belichick ( SIX Super Bowl rings and 31 playoff wins) vs Vrabel (1st-ever postseason game as a head coach), am I really going to "step in front of" the Pats? Oh by the way, New England is coming off a loss (not just ANY loss but a near-historic one) and they are a remarkable 43-17 ATS (that's 71.7%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. In a tribute to Archie Bunker, I'll say "Case Closed!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 4:35 ET.

The 10-6 Houston Texans have won the AFC South title in in 2019 for the FOURTH time in the last five season but Bill O'Brien's team has just ONE playoff victory in its three postseason appearances. Houston wrapped up the AFC South title with a Week 16 victory in Tampa Bay, allowing head coach O'Brien to rest QB Deshaun Watson and WR DeAndre Hopkins during the team's regular-season finale against Tennessee, one in which the Titans won going away, 35-14. The Buffalo Bills matched Houston with a 10-6 mark, good enough to earn the AFC's top wild card spot. It marks Buffalo's second playoff appearance in three seasons, after a playoff drought that lasted 17 years. The Bills had the No. 5 seed wrapped up heading into Week 17 and QB Josh Allen received an early exit in Buffalo's 13-6 home loss to the Jets. The Bills travel to Houston in search of the franchise's first playoff win since a 37-22 win over Miami in a wild card game back on Dec 30, 1995. The Bills have lost all FIVE postseason games since that victory.

Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio. However, he has also run for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. Allen has helped the Bills rushing game average 128.4 YPG (8th). Vet Frank Gore (599 yards but just 3.6 YPA) was the main man erarly on but the Bills have begun to lean on RB Devin Singletary and the rookie has paid dividends with 775 yards on 5.1 YPA. Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (72 / 14.7 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (67 / 6 TDs). The Bills' bread and butter resides with their defense, which is allowing 16.2 PPG (2nd) on 298.3 YPG (3rd).

Houston QB Deshaun Watson is looking for his first playoff win after struggling in his playoff debut last season, a 21-7 loss to the Colts. When he's on, he's quite superb but he too often reminds us of Jameis Winston (that may be too cold!). Watson has completed 67.3% for 3,852 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He's also run for 413 yards and seven TDs. The preseason injury to Lamar Smith was supposed to cripple Houston's running game but Carlos Hyde has run for 1,070 yards (4.4 YPA), as Houston is right behind Buffalo in rushing for 125.6 YPG (9th). WR DeAndre Hopkins (104 catches / 7 TDs) was just named 1st-team All Pro and the really good news is that Will Fuller V (49 catches in 11 games) returned to practice this week after injuring his groin in Week 16. Note that the Texans own an 8-3 record and have averaged 26.3 points in games in which Fuller has played this season, as opposed to a 2-3 mark with a 19.6 point average in contests that he has missed. Houston's D is NOT a strength, as the Texans have allowed 24.1 PPG (19th) on 388.3 YPG (28th). However, J.J. Watt will return to the field a little more than two months after surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle in Saturday's game. Watt was a rookie in the 2011 playoffs when his spectacular performance against the Cincinnati Bengals led the Houston Texans to the first postseason win in franchise history. That game was tied at 10-all in the second quarter when Watt tipped a pass from Andy Dalton and grabbed it for an interception, which he returned 29 yards for a TD to put Houston on top for good. The DE also had four tackles, a sack and a quarterback hit in the 31-10 victory.

If one believes in "omens" (good or bad), Watt's return spells G-O-O-D news for the Texans. The Buffalo D is top-notch but the Bills haven't scored more than 17 points in any of their last four games. Allen is a gutty guy but the Bills just have too many offensive limitations to back them in a road playoff game at this price. With Baltimore awaiting the "lucky winner" of this one, maybe bowing out here won't be all that bad. I say the "unlucky winner' with be the home team and the final comes with more than enough "room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Jan Game of the Month is on Sou Miss at 11:30 a.m. ET.

This year's Armed Forces Bowl (at Fort Worth, Texas) features 6-6 Tulane of the AAC and 7-5 Southern Miss of C-USA. However, Tulane and Southern Miss were once both members of C-USA, and this "Battle for the Bell" series owns a 30-game history. Southern Miss own a 23-7 record in the rivalry, which is being contested for the first time since 2010. It pits a pair of schools separated by just 113 miles of interstate highway. The Green Wave stumbled at the end with losses in FIVE of their final six games, including the last three, but will make their second consecutive bowl appearance after a four-year absence. The Golden Eagles miss out at an opportunity at the C-USA crown by dropping their final two games but are returning to bowl play after being left out last season despite reaching the six-win threshold.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FIVE of its last six (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win here to replicate last season's 7-6 mark. Dual-threat QB McMillan has 2,229 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs but leads the team in rushing with 704 yards (4.6 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as FIVE more RBs chip in between 240 and 569 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 11th by averaging 251.4 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG) but the "stop unit" allowed 35.2 PPG on the road, a big reason Tulane went just 1-5 away from home.

The Golden Eagles turned the ball over a total of EIGHT times in their final two regular-season games, falling 28-10 at home to Western Kentucky and 34-17 at FAU. QB Jack Abraham has thrown for 3,329 yards with 18 TDs and 15 INTs. He has two solid WRs in Jones (66 catches) and Watkins (55 catches / 18.6 YPC). The running game is a true weak link, averaging only 122.8 YPG (118th) on 3.6 YPA. However, Southern Miss has averaged 27.8 PPG (74th) on 411.3 YPG (59th). The defense has played reasonably well, allowing 350.3 YPG (36th) and 25.9 PPG (54th).

It's my belief that Southern Miss meeting rival Tulane is a motivating bonus factor. The schools faced each other every season from 1979-2006, then again for a home-and-home in 2009 and 2010. The Golden Eagles were left out of the bowl season last year despite a 6-5 record (note: their schedule last season was trimmed to 11 games when a September contest was canceled as Hurricane Florence threatened the Atlantic Coast). However, 'bowling' has been a "regular thing" for Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles mad 17 bowl appearances in the 21-year span from 1997-2017. That's in stark contrast to Tulane, which needs a win here for just its THIRD winning season in the previous 17 seasons!

There is a GREAT chance that Tulane's outstanding ground game (see above) will NOT be effective against a Southern Miss rush D allowing just 111.8 YPG (18th) on  3.4 YPA! I also really like the "bowl experience" that Southern Miss holds over Tulane. QB Jack Abraham has had more than a month to get over a 34-17 loss at Florida Atlantic in the finale, one in which he threw FOUR interceptions and was sacked three times However, let's NOT ignore that he became just the THIRD quarterback in school history to pass for 3,000 yards in a season in 2019 and has completed 70 percent of his passes in two seasons as a starter! He''ll face a Tulane defense that allowed an average of 35.7 PPG in going 1-5 over its last six contests. Throw in the fact that  Southern Miss has won the last SIX meetings between the one-time rivals and taking a TD seems awfully 'juicy' to me!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Cincinnati at 3:00 ET.

The Cincinnati Bearcats suffered a 42-0 road loss at Ohio State early in the season and didn't lose again until back-to-back games at Memphis to end the season. Cincy lost 34-24 at Memphis on Nov 29 and then met the Tigers on Dec 7 in the AAC title game (again in Memphis), falling 29-24 on a late TD.  Third-year head coach Luke Fickell, leads Cincy into this year's Birmingham Bowl, seeking a second straight 11-win season.  Steve Addazio was the first BC coach to get the Eagles to a bowl in SIX of seven seasons but was abruptly fired following their upset win at Pitt in the regular season finale. Yes, BC was a 'bowl regular under Addazio but he was only 42-42 in his tenure (team never won more than SEVEN games in any season) and was 1-3 in bowl games (last year’s bowl was cancelled to due inclement weather). BC has hired Ohio State’s DC Jeff Hafley to take over next season but promoted WR coach Richie Gunnell to serve as the interim head coach for this contest.

If that wasn't enough turmoil, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has also left the program to serve in the same role at Northwestern plus more notably, star running back AJ Dillon, who rushed for 1,685 yards (5.3 YPA) and scored 14 TDs this season, has declared for the draft. He is sitting out this game, so backup David Bailey will see a larger role, after rushing for 816 yards (5.8 YPA) and seven TDs. Sophomore QB Dennis Grosel in now in charge, after junior Anthony Brown was injured halfway through the season. Both have similar TD-to-INT ratios (Brown's was 9-2 and Grosel's is 9-3) but while Brown completed 59.1% of his passes, Grosel is completing just 48.6%. The team's leading receiver has only 27 catches and one wonders how BC's offense will fair (without Dillon) against the Cincy D (more later). As for BC's defense, the Eagles are allowing 31.7 PPG (96th) on a whopping 480.3 YPG (125th!).

The Bearcats also rely on a strong ground game behind junior Michael Warren, who has back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons with 33 TDs on the ground in that span. He's run for 1,160 yards (4.8 YPA / 14 TDs) this season, while fellow RB Doaks has also compiled 499 rushing yards (5.3 YPA). QB Desmond Ridder returned from a shoulder injury for the AAC title contest but completed just 16-of-36 passes. However, he ran for 113 yards and a TD in the loss, giving him 545 rushing yards on the season. Cincy is averaging 197.6 YPG on the ground (33rd). Ridder has thrown for 2,069 yards (17 TDs / 9 INTs) but like with BC, Cincy's leading receiver has only 36 catches. The Cincy D checks in allowing 21.7 PPG, good enough to rank 30th.

Taking a closer look and the 2019 season, BC opened and closed the season with upset wins over bowl teams Virginia Tech and Pitt, but didn’t beat another bowl invitee in the remaining 10 games. Meanwhile, nationally-ranked Cincy, which had a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl had it defeated Memphis in the AAC title game, only lost two games prior to that, at Ohio State and at Memphis, when QB Desmond Ridder was sidelined with a shoulder injury. Ridder returned for the AAC title game and the Bearcats led that one until Memphis scored the game-winner with 1:14 remaining. The Cincy defense comes in allowing 21.7 PPG but a closer look reveals that it allowed 35.0 PPG in its three losses (Ohio St and Memphis, twice), while in the team's 10 wins, allowed only 17.7 PPG. I see no reason for why the Cincy D won't contain a BC offense playing without its marquee player (Dillon) and with a QB completing less than 50 percent of his passes. Blowout alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rose Bowl play is on Oregon at 5:00 ET.

Oregon (preseason No. 11) opened its season on Aug 31 with a game at "Jerry's House" against Auburn (preseason No. 16). The Ducks dominated play in to the late third quarter (led 21-6) but the Tigers would hold Oregon scoreless over the game's final minutes, while scoring the game's final THREE touchdowns (game-winner came with NINE seconds remaining). Oregon would fight its way back near the top of the rankings by winning its next NINE games (37.9-to-13.4 PPG) and was No. 2 when it lost 31-28 at Arizona St on Nov 23. That ended the Ducks' CFP hopes but a dominating 37-15 win over Utah in the Pac-12 championship game earned Oregon a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Wisconsin  opened the season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll and started the season 6-0, while 'pitching FOUR shutouts!' The Badgers were ranked 6th in the AP poll (defense was allowing 4.8 PPG!) when they lost 24-23 at Illinois on Oct 19, as four TD favorites. Wisconsin lost 38-7 at then-No. 3 Ohio St the following Saturday, ending any hopes the Badgers had of a CFP berth. The Badgers did fight back to take the Big Ten West but in a rematch with the Buckeyes on Dec 7, Wisconsin fell 34-21, getting outscored 27-0 in the second half. The 'consolation prize' is this trip to Pasadena.

Wisconsin is ranked 8th as it meets 6th-ranked Oregon and is in search of a SIXTH straight bowl victory, which has followed a four-game postseason skid.Leading the way for the Badgers is junior RB Jonathan Taylor, who has 1,909 rushing yards (6.4 PPA and 21 TDs). He's just 91 yards away from joining Troy Davis (Iowa St) as the only players in FBS history to run for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He enters with 6,080 career rushing yards and could be playing his final college game, as he wrestles with the decision to turn pro.Oklahoma St's Chuba Hubbard an for 158 yards in his bowl game, giving him 2,094 on the season. Doing the math, Taylor needs 186 yards to become the first player since Texas' Ricky Williams to lead the nation in rushing in back-to-back years. QB Jack Coan has thrown for a modest 2,541 yards but has made mistakes (just four INTs, while throwing 17 TDs) but his only receiver with more than 30 catches is Quentez Cephus (52 / 16.2 YPC / 6 TDs).

Oregon has a very good running game (185.8 YPG ranks 42nd) led by Verdell, who has 1,171 yards on 6.5 YPA and eight TDs. Fellow RB Habibi-Likio may have just 337 yards but he's scored 10 TDs. However, the key to Oregon's offense (35.9 PPG ranks 15th) is QB Justin Herbert, who has thrown for 3,333 yards with 32 TDs and only five INTs. He turned down a chance to be a high first-round pick in the NFL Draft last winter and he enters the final game of his college career as the nation's active leader with 95 career TD passes. WRs Johnson (55) and Redd (50) each have seven TD catches. As for the Oregon D, it is actually allowing less points than Wisconsin's D on the season, checking in at 15.9 PPG to Wisconsin's 16.1.

Speaking of that Wisconsin D, it's become quite ordinary since yielding only 4.8 PPG on a paltry 174 YPG in its 6-0 start. Wisconsin has allowed an average of 25.7 PPG over its last seven games, including a combined 72 points in two losses to Ohio State, as well as allowing a season-high 493 yards of total offense at Nebraska on Nov 16.Bottom line is that the Oregon defense is every bit as good as Wisconsin's (maybe better?) and has 19 INTs (2nd-most in the nation entering the bowl season), which boosted Oregon to 8th in the country in turnover margin. After Utah got embarrassed last night by Texas (Longhorns won 38-10, as seven-point underdogs), Oregon should be motivated to restore some Pac-12 pride. Herbert goes out a winner, making his return for his senior season worth it.'

Good luck...Larry

10-2 Navy (No. 23 in the CFP rankings) will take on unranked on Kansas State (8-4) in the Liberty Bowl on Tuesday. The two programs are used to playing in bowl games, as Navy will be appearing in its 15th bowl game in the last 17 years, while Kansas State will make its ninth bowl appearance in the last 10 seasons. 2018 was a bit of an anomaly for both schools, as neither played in a bowl game. Navy went just 3-10 and Kansas St 5-7 finished 5-7 in the swan song of iconic coach Bill Snyder, who retired for a second time after the season. Ken Niumatalolo led the Midshipmen to biggest turnaround of any FBS program from last season, while Chris Klieman, who led North Dakota St to four FCS national championships over the previous five seasons, guided the Wildcats to a tie for third place in the Big 12, the school's best finish in conference play since 2014.

The Wildcats are led by QB Skylar Thompson (2,191 passing yards and 402 rushing yards), who accounted for 22 TDs (12 passing, 10 rushing) this season and became the fourth player in school history with more than 4,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards on the ground. Gilbert is the team's leading rusher (698 yards / 5.2 YPA / 6 TDs) for a running game averaging 190.5 YPG (37th). The team's top-two pass-catchers are Schoen (35 catches) and Knowles (22) but both have excellent averages of 16.2 and 15.9 YPC. The Wildcats are averaging 30.7 PPG (54th) and the Kansas State defense allows 21.5 PPG (28th). Most impressively, the defense has been VERY opportunistic, ranking No. 1 nationally in third-down efficiency (25.9%), while holding 11 of 12 opponents below their season scoring averages.

Perhaps no team in the country has its fortunes tied to one player more than Navy, which features dual-threat QB Malcolm Perry Perry shattered a few single-season school records on his way to the 304-yard performance against Army, boosting his rushing total to 1,804 yards to eclipse the mark previously held by Napoleon McCallum, while also establishing a new standard with 2,831 yards of total offense. Perry's ninth consecutive 100-yard rushing performance and 10th of the season are also school records. RB Carothers is also a threat with 712 yards and 14 TDs. Overall, Navy averages a nation-best 363.8 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPA with 51 rushing TDs. Perry's outstanding game vs Army overshadowed a stellar effort by the defense, which limited Army to 148 yards of total offense. Navy allowed 33.5 PPG on 426.0 YPG last season but in 2019, has allowed just 22.8 PPG (38th) on 326.3 YPG (22nd).

Navy has won four of its last five bowl games and while this will be Klieman's first FBS bowl game, he has lots of postseason experience by winning four of the previous five FCS titles not to mention serving as an assistant to Craig Bohl for another three Bison FCS title winners. I respect K-St and Klieman but preparing for the Navy option is no easy task. Contrary to popular opinion, a couple of extra weeks is not always enough. It should also be noted that Niumatalolo has used extra prep times wisely in recent bowls, covering his last FIVE.

Is Navy the play? I like the Midshipmen but I 'LOVE' the Over in this one. I noted above the great improvement this year by the Navy D but look deeper. When you do, you'll find that Navy allowed 35.6 PPG against the five bowl teams it payed this season, while holding the other seven opponents to just 13.6 PPG. That's quite a disparity. Yes, the Kansas St defense has had a very good year but again, trying to slow down Perry and the Navy option is often like 'chasing windmills.' This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Va Tech at 12::00 ET.

7-5 Kentucky and 8-4 Virginia Tech meet Dec 31 in the Belk Bowl at Charlotte, N.C. The Wildcats were just 4-5 after a 17-13 home loss to Tennessee back on Nov 9 but ripped off THREE straight wins to earn a bowl bid for the FOURTH straight season under head coach Mark Stoops. Lynn Bowden, Jr., a WR turned QB, took over under center for Kentucky at 2-3 and finished 5-2. The Hokies have a similar story, as Herndon Hooker was inserted at QB with the Hokies at 2-2 and the sophomore led the team to SIX wins in its next seven games. Va Tech met Virginia on Nov 29 and a win would have earned them the ACC Coastal Division title but the Cavs beat the Hokies 39-30, ending a 15-game losing streak in the series. No doubt the Hokies were disappointed by that loss but Va Tech is making its 27th straight bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the nation

Bowden, an AP All-American who won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation's most versatile player, is the ONLY player in the country to lead his team in rushing and receiving, and averages 8.2 YPA, while producing five straight 100-yard ground games to end the season, capped by a career-high 284 yards and four TDs against Louisville. He finished the season with 1,235 rushing yards, 1,136 of which he gained in the final seven games, and 11 rushing TDs. Kentucky also has a trio of RBs who have between 515 and 757 yards rushing, giving the Wildcats the 4th-best ground game in the nation at 274.8 YPG (6.4 YPA). Don't expect much out of Kentucky's passing game though, as Bowden has completed just 46.8 percent of his passes for 330 yards (two TDs and two INTs). Stoops is a defensive guy and Kentucky is allowing only 18.4 PPG (12th).

Va Tech has no stars but a decent running game that's averaged 172.9 YPG (53rd). Hooker is nothing like Bowden but he did rush for 306 yards and five TDs. He's passed for 1,445 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. He likes to spread the ball around, with Tre Turner, Damon Hazelton and Tayvion Robinson accounting for 92 receptions for 1,434 yards and 12 TDs (no receiver has more than 33 catches). Defense has always been a Va Tech trademark and this game marks the final one for DC Bud Foster. He followed head coach Frank Beamer from Murray State before the 1987 season and has been in Blacksburg ever since. That includes the last 24 years running the defense under Beamer and Justin Fuente, who replaced Beamer after the 2015 season. After a rough start, Foster's unit peaked in November, allowing 9.3 PPG and pitching two shutouts, before giving up 39 points to Virginia. Va Tech's only other loss in its 6-2 closing run was 21-20 to Notre Dame.

Color me sentimental but Foster has a had a month to prepare for Kentucky's one-dimensional offense. Foster's defenses have posted 36 shutouts and have collected the most sacks (893) and second-most interceptions (393) in the FBS since 1996. I say Va Tech "wins one for the Gipper!" You get my drift, right?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Western Kentucky at 12:30 ET.

Western Kentucky was coming off a 3-9 season in 2018 and had a first-time head coach (Tyson Helton) to open 2019. Things couldn't have looked worse when the Hilltoppers opened the season with with a 35-28 home loss to FCS Central Arkansas (as a 10 1/2-point favorite) but by the end of November, the team had made a major turnaround. WKU went 8-4 and is now in its SIXTH bowl in eight seasons. Waiting in Dallas for the Hilltoppers for the First Responders Bowl is 7-5 Western Michigan, which is appearing in its fifth bowl game in the last six years and second straight under third-year head coach Tim Lester.

The Broncos' are averaging 34.2 PPG (25th) behind QB Jon Wassink (2,904 yards / 19-7 TD-to-INT ratio) and RB LeVante Bellamy, who leads the nation in rsuhing TDs (23), while gaining 1,412 rushing yards (9th) on 5.7 YPA. WRs Mixon and Moore have combined for 95 catches but just five TDs. TE Ricci has 47 catches and a team-high eight TDs. The defense is allowing 26.2 PPG (57th) on 414.6 YPG (82nd).

Starting QB Steven Duncan went down with a foot injury early on for WKU and graduate-transfer QB Ty Storey started the last nine games, throwing for 2,209 yards and 12 TDs and just five INTs. It helps that Storey was throwing to a pair of receivers that each earned all-conference honors in Lucky Jackson (77) and Jahcour Pearson (71), one of just four duos in the country to have at least 70 catches each. RB Gaej Walker was second in C-USA with 1,115 rushing yards (4.9 YPA / 8 TDS), reaching the 100-yard plateau seven times. The offense is averaging a modest 25.6 PPG (90th) on 380.0 YPG (87th) but the defense is top-notch, allowing 20.1 PPG (21st) on 337.8 YPG (29th).

Yes, WKU lost its opener against a FCS school but then defeated four C-USA bowl teams plus power-five opponent in Arkansas. Ty Helton was named the C-USA Coach of the Year, an award his father, Kim, won as head coach of Houston in 1996, the first father-son duo to win the award in the conference’s history. Western Kentucky comes in having won its last three games, including a 45-19 victory over Arkansas. WKU was 7-2 SU and ATS with Storey as its starter and I think that the Hilltoppers are undervalued in this matchup. Western Michigan hasn't played since it frittered away a chance to play for the MAC title (Nov 26) when it lost 17-14 at Northern Illinois as a 10-point favorite. Frankly, Western Michigan failed to impress in a softer MAC West and enters this contest with a putrid 1-8 bowl record that includes last year's 49-18 thumping at the hands of BYU in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. WMU falls to 1-9 all-time in bowls, as WKU wins handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Battle 4 NFC West is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West title is on the line when the first-place San Francisco 49ers (12-3) visit the second-place Seattle Seahawks (11-4) on Sunday night. The 49ers can clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs with a victory but a Seattle win would give the Seahawks the division title as they won the first meeting with the 49ers. That first meeting was a Week 10  MNF "classic," in which the Seahawks won 30-27 in OT (FYI...I had Seattle as my Nov Game of the Month!). The stakes are clearly high, as the 49ers will either be the NFC's top-seed (getting home field all the way and earning a bye next weekend), or they will be the No. 5 seed, which would mean a road game next weekend at the NFC East winner (Dallas of Philly). Meanwhile, a season sweep would assure Seattle of at least the No. 3 seed, avoiding a road game next weekend vs that NFC East winner.

Jimmy Garoppolo has gained his "rep" by producing a 20-5 record as an NFL starter, not by putting up 'monster' passing stats. However, he has thrown 27 TD passes against just 13 INTs this season, while throwing for 3,693 yards. If he can throw for 307 yards against Seattle, he would  to join Jeff Garcia (franchise-record 4,278) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (two 4,000-yard campaigns) as the only San Francisco QBs to reach 4,000 yards in a single season. San Francisco is averaging 30.2 PPG (2nd-most) and Jimmy G has had lots of help from his running game this season,as three RBs have battled injuries to rush for between 533 and 715 yards. As a team, only the Ravens (Lamar and Mark) have run for more YPG than San Francisco's 145.1. San Francisco's WRs are nothing more than average (kudos to Jimmy G for making due), although TE Kittle (78 catches) is one of the best in the business. San Francisco's defense has fell off lately (more in a bit) but it enters this final game of the regular season allowing 277.4 YPG (2nd) and 19.3 PPG (8th).

Seattle QB Russell Wilson was a strong contender for MVP honors for most of the season but Lamar Jackson's play  has left all contenders "in the dust." That said, Wilson has thrown for 3,877 yards with 29 TDs and just five INTs, while rushing for 313 yards with three more TDs. For most of the season, he's been buoyed by an excellent rushing attack, led by Chris Carson (1,230 / 4.4 YPA / 7 TDs). However, Seattle's RB situation is a mess after starter Carson (hip) and reserve C.J. Prosise (arm) were hurt last week to join main backup Rashaad Penny (knee) on the injured list. Seattle signed two former team members in Marshawn Lynch (2010-15) and Robert Turbin (2012-14) to support new starter Travis Homer. I guess Curt Warner was NOT available! Seattle's defense no longer bears the moniker "Legion of Boom," as the unit is allowing 24.8 PPG (21st) on 380.5 YPG (26th).

OK, so what's the play, you ask? Yes, Seattle is banged up but let's go back and take a look at that "dominant" San Francisco defense. After allowing only 11 points per game the first seven contests, the Niners have given up 26.5 points PPG over their last eight contests (that's the NINTH-worst total in the league during that span!). Feeling a little better about my Seattle pick? How about trying this stat on? First, let me note that Seattle's home field is one of the loudest in the NFL and Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting in it for the first time, as he missed last season's visit because of a torn ACL. How have the 49ers fared in the Great Pacific Northwest? Not so well. The 49ers have lost EIGHT straight visits to Seattle, including the 2013 NFC Championship Game! Seattle gets to stay home next week with a win and would earn the No. 2 seed if the Packers lose (earning a bye) and the No. 1 seed if the Saints lose, as well (hardly likely). As for  the 49ers, I expect them to lose, which means they are off to Dallas or Philadelphia. 

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC West) is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET.

The Broncos and Raiders met in Week 1 of the 2-019 season, in the second half of a MNF doubleheader. Oakland won 24-16 in that contest as a 2 1/2-point home dog (I had the Raiders, capping a 4-1 opening week!).  Here's how I opened my analysis of that contest.

Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12.

The Raiders enter this contest 7-8 and the Broncos at 6-9. However, thanks to the Steelers and Titans each losing in Week 16, the Raiders actually have a chance (more like a 'prayer') of earning the AFC's No. 6 seed. Here goes. To reach the playoffs, the Raiders need to beat the Broncos and get lots of help. That is; losses by the Titans and Steelers, a win by the Colts and a least a win by the Patriots, Bears, Chargers or Lions. Best of luck. However, NOTHING matters if the Raiders lose.

The Raiders still have a playoff 'prayer' because they beat equally forlorn Chargers 24-17 last Sunday, QB David Carr is completing 71.1% for 3,663 yards with 20 TDs and eight INTs (101.1 QB rating) but he has yet to throw for 300 yards in a SINGLE game this season. He's a "dink-and-dunker"  and other than Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs) he's got little to work with. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (from Alabama) has been terrific, running for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPA) and seven TDs but he missed last week's game with a shoulder injury and had surgery to treat a skin injection on his leg Wednesday. Hard to imagine him playing here. DeAndre Washington was a 'savior' last week filling in for Jacobs with a season-high 106 yards from scrimmage (do NOT expect a repeat effort, here!). Darren Waller is second in the league among tight ends with 1,038 yards and third with 84 receptions. He's the first Oakland TE to record 1,000 yards in a season since Todd Christensen in 1986. However, the team's two starting WRs Renfrow (43) and Williams (42) COMBINED to catch just one more catch than Waller. The Oakland defense has been near the bottom of the league all season and enters Week 17 ranked 27th in allowing 26.9 PPG.

The Broncos opened 0-4 (1-3 ATS) but since those early woes, Denver has gone a competitive 8-3 ATS. The signing of Flacco turned out to be a bust plus Brandon Allen hardly looked ready for "primetime." However, as the saying goes, "the third time's the charm!" Drew Lock, a second round pick from Missouri, is the first rookie in franchise history to win THREE of his first four starts. Lock is completing 64.8 percent of his passes with six TDs and three INTs. It appears he has all the tools to lead the franchise moving forward. RB Lindsay (958 / 4.7 YPA / 7 TDs)  will reach 1,000 yards on Sunday plus his backfield partner, Freeman, has 500 rushing yards and 42 catches. Similar to Oakland, Denver has a single pass-catching threat. In this case, it's WR Sutton (68 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs). The Fangio-coached defense has gotten healthier week-by-week and enters this contest ranking 10th in both points allowed (20.1 PPG) and yards allowed (327.2 YPG).

Why would anyone want to trust Oakland in this one? Heading into its game last Sunday vs the sad-sack Chargers, the Raiders had lost FOUR in a row by an average of 21.7 PPG. Try these stats on for size. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the 30s and that has usually spelled doom for QB Derek Carr and the Raiders. Carr has lost NINE straight starts when it has been below 50 degrees. He owns a 65.9 passer rating in those games, compared to 94.7 in all others. As noted above, Fangio has this Denver defense playing "up to snuff" and one wonders if the unit did not suffer a bout with mono early in the season, just maybe the Broncos would have had an 8-8 or 9-7 season. We do KNOW that the Broncos are 6-1 SU, 4-2-1 ATS the last seven times hosting Oakland.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Shocker is on the NY Giants at 4:25 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles returned from their Week 10 bye to lose THREE in a row. At 5-7, Philly's postseason chances seemed dim. However, the Eagles have vaulted to the top of the NFC East by putting together a season-high three-game winning streak in defeating each team in their lackluster division. Philly's 17-9 win last Sunday against Dallas means the Eagles can wrap up the NFC East title with a win at the New York Giants. The Giants are just 4-11, after their 41-35 OT win last Sunday against the Redskins. If history is a guide, the Eagles are in good shape. They've beaten the Giants SIX straight times and in 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a "down" year but, he's thrown for 3.3750 yards on the season with 26 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 910 yards and six TDs and just one interception in wins over the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys. He's done all that (the last three weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TEs Ertz (88 catches / 6 TDs) and Goedert (54 catches / 5 TDs) have been terrific but Ertz's availability for Sunday's game is in question after he sustained a broken rib against the Cowboys. "He is progressing, getting better. We'll keep monitoring him each day," head coach Doug Pederson said. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9 with an injured shoulder. However, he is expected to gain clearance to return to the backfield following a six-game absence. He'll be welcomed back but Miles Sanders has rolled up 328 scrimmage yards and three total TDs in his last two games. He has 766 rushing yards and 1,276 yards from scrimmage, with both totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (327.3 YPG) and 16th in scoring D (22.5 PPG).

The Giants ended a nine-game losing streak with 36-20 win at home in Week 15 over the Dolphins (Eli's last game with the Giants?) and then last Sunday, with rookie Daniel Jones back at QB, won 41-35 (OT) at Washington, as Jones (23 TDs / 11 TDs) passed for 352 yards with five TDs (zero INTs). More big news coming out of the Giants' last two wins is the return to "elite form" for RB  Saquan Barkley. He's run for 301 yards and three TDs in the back-to-back wins and now has 911 yards (4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) on the season, along with 49 catches. New York's WRs are finally healthy and Jones, Barkley and Co. will test Philly's improving defense. The Giants D is vulnerable (27.8 PPG ranks 29th), so it will be up to New York's offense to win this one.

The Giants gave the Eagles all they could handle when the teams three weeks ago, losing in overtime after being ahead by two TDs. In that one, the Giants had
old man Eli at QB plus Barkley not fully recovered from a high ankle sprain (was held to just 66 yards).  For this one, Barkley is back to 100 percent and Daniel Jones is fresh off a confidence-boosting effort last Sunday (see above for both). NOTHING has come easy for Philly this year and note that in the team's three-game winning streak, they needed to come back against both the Giants and Redskins, before slipping past the incompetent Cowboys. The Eagles' playoff fate is in their hands but a Philadelphia loss, coupled with Dallas win over Washington on Sunday, will spell the end of the Eagles' season. I see that as a very likely scenario.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/Jax Over at 4:25 ET.

The abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck near the end of this year's preseason was a jolt to the Colts, who were coming off a 10-win season which also included a wild card win at Houston. However, the Colts would open the 2019 season 5-2, including wins over eventual division winners KC and Houston. QB Jacoby Brissett played MUCH better than expected and Marlon Mack led one of the league's best running games. Indy's good fortune did not last though, as the Colts lost SIX of their next seven games, before beating hapless Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. Indy now hopes to win here at Jacksonville, to finish 8-8.

The Jags "gave up" on Blake Bortles and signed Nick Foles to a four-year, $88 million contract in March but Foles broke his left clavicle in the first quarter of the team's Week 1 game. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and completed his first 13 passes (finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs). Minshew was reasonably effective at QB and the Jags reached the mid-point of the season at 4-4 but has since lost SIX of seven, winning only in Week 15 at Oakland 20-16, after trailing 16-3 at the half. The 5-10 Jags will finish with a losing record for the EIGHTH time in nine seasons. "A very disappointing year," head coach Doug Marrone told reporters. "It's difficult when a team is not doing well. You want your team to be doing well so your fans can have some pride and joy. ... I'm truly sorry that I've let so many people down and that I couldn't have done a better job."

The Colts were embarrassed  34-7 on MNF at New Orleans two weeks ago but ended a four-game slide by routing Carolina 38-6 last Sunday. However, let's note that the Panthers have lost SEVEN in a row. Brissett is completing 61.6% for 2,780 ayrds (18 TDs / 6 INTs) but his recent struggles have cast some doubt on his future as the team's starting QB. He has completed just 52.5 percent of his passes with 8.9 yards per completion over his last two games. Running backs Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins combined for 179 rushing yards and a pair of scores in the win over the Panthers and despite missing some time late in the season, Mack has run for 1,014 yards (4.4 YPA / 6 TDs), giving him his first 1,000-yard season. The Colts are averaging 133.2 YPG, giving them the league's 4th-best rushing attack. Indy's best receiver T.Y. Hilton has been fighting injuries all season (just 42 catches and 5 TDs) but he is active for this one. Indy's defense has been "average' all season, allowing 22.3 PPG (15th) on 346.4 YPG (16th).

Nick Foles came back from that Week 1 injury but did not play well. Minshew's fast start created some buzz in Jacksonville but his play has been a bit more uneven since he regained the starting role from Nick Foles at the beginning of the month. Minshew completed just 13-of-31 passes in last week's 24-12 loss at Atlanta, but he does have five TD passes and just one interception in four December starts. Will the Jags 'eat' Foles' contract and go with Minshew (2,976 pasing yards with a 18-5 ratio plus 337 rushing yards on 5.4 YPA) in 2020. We don't hear much about Leonard Fournette these days but he's had quite a season, rushing for 1,152 yards (4.3 YPA & 7 TDs) plus he's caught 76 passes. Second-year WR Chark has also 'flown under the radar,' catching 69 passed with eight TDs. The Jacksonville defense checks in allowing 25.1 PPG (22nd) on 382.1 YPG (27th).

Indy head coach Frank Reich has made one thing clear since his team was eliminated from the playoffs by New Orleans on Monday Night Football on Dec 16; "There's nothing meaningless about finishing this season with back-to-back wins and avoiding their second losing season in three years." Frank Reich is 8-3-1 ATS in division games and his teams can be counted on for a full effort. As for the Jags' Doug Marrone, he may not be back. Personnel chief Tom Coughlin was identified as the franchise's biggest problem and was fired on Dec 18. Marrone could really use his Jags to bring their "A game" in this one. He can't count on his D (see above) and note that Jacksonville has given up an average of 469 YPG over the last three weeks. For the Jags to win (even compete) here, they will need to score, That's why I'm saying "O-V-E-R!"

Good luck...Larry

 

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

lt's called the "Battle of Ohio" but the winner of this Week 17 game between the 6-9 Browns and 1-14 Bengals wins nothing more than a "booby prize." The Cleveland Browns dropped their last two games, clinching another playoff-less campaign despite high expectations and have not made the playoffs since 2002 (last won a playoff game when Bill Belichick coached them past the New England Patriots in the 1994 divisional round). Their streak of 17 seasons without a playoff appearance is the longest active one in the league. Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals clinched the worst record in the NFL and the No. 1 draft pick with its 38-35 overtime loss at Miami last week. The Browns posted a 27-19 home win over the Bengals in Week 14 and now own a three-game winning streak in the series, after dropping the previous six meetings.

Baker Mayfield had an excellent rookies season (27 TDs / 14 INTs / 93.1 QB rating) and expectations were high for him and the Browns enter the 2019 season (Cleveland was featured on SI's NFL preview edition). However, Mayfield has 19 INTs and 18 INTs with a 79.1 QB rating entering this final game. The Browns opened 2-6, with Mayfield throwing seven TDs and 12 INTs. A three-game winning streak followed (Mayfield d has seven TDs and just one INT) but the Browns have lost THREE of the their last four, with Mayfield throwing five TDs and INTs. It's not like he doesn't have quality offense 'weapons,' as RB Chubb (1,453 yards / 5.1 YPA / 11 TDs  / 35 catches) is closing in on the league's rushing title. Chubb leads Carolina's Christian McCaffrey by 92 yards and has a chance to clinch the title against a Bengals defense that has struggled against the run. WRs Landry (81 catches / 5 TDs) and OBJ (71 catches / 3 TDs) are a talented duo but the fact that they have combined to catch just eight TDs is troubling. To add insult to injury, Beckham (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday.

Cincinnati has been at the bottom of the league all season but the team is still putting in the effort. Cincy scored 16 points in 29 seconds to force overtime last week (lost 38-35 in OT), as QB Andy Dalton threw four TD passes without an interception. Dalton (3,304 yards 15 TDs a& 13 INTs ) has one year left on his contract, so he could be playing his final game for the team that made him a second-round draft pick in 2011.Then again, the Bengals could keep him to mentor a new QB through a rookie season. The Bengals placed WR A.J. Green (ankle) on IR Monday, officially ending a season in which he did not play a snap after suffering the injury in the preseason. Boyd (85 catches / 5 TDs) has been the team's top receiver and RB Joe Mixon is set to surpass 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight season (he has 975). It's hard to hide the fact that Cincy ranks last in scoring (16.4 PPG), while allowing 26.5 PPG (25th).

Cleveland hasn't finished with a winning record since going 10-6 in 2007. Since then, the Browns have gone 4-12 and 5-11 three times, won seven games twice, and had a three-year stretch of 3-13, 1-15 and 0-16. Their streak of 17 seasons without a playoff appearance is the longest active one in the league. As for Cincinnati, the Bengals  wrap up their fourth straight losing season. They haven't won a playoff game since the 1990 season, the fifth-longest streak of postseason futility in the NFL's century-old history. During that 29-year span, they've had only seven winning seasons. Some "Battle of Ohio," right? That said, the Bengals have secured the top overall draft pick and would love nothing more than to beat the Browns. Why not take some points with the Bengals? The dysfunctional Browns have lost and failed to cover their last FIVE road games!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET.

What a difference the No. 1 vs No. 2 spot in the final CFP rankings meant. LSU was able to leap-frog Ohio St after the Tigers dominated the Bulldogs, while the Buckeyes fell behind Wisconsin 21-7 at the half in the Big Ten championship game, before dominating the second half to win, 34-21. No. 1 LSU drew Oklahoma in the semifinals, where the Tigers are just about a two-TD favorite, while No. 2 Ohio St gets Clemson. The defending champs will take the the field in this year's Fiesta Bowl on a 28-game winning streak. Like LSU, Ohio St would have been a double-digit favorite against the Sooners, but instead the Buckeyes will take the field Saturday night  against Clemson as small underdog. It’s the second time in four years that Clemson and Ohio State have squared off in a semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl, with the Tigers routing the Buckeyes 31-0 in 2016.

Clemson is trying to become the first repeat national champion since Alabama rolled to back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2012. The knock on the Tigers is their relatively weak schedule and that 21-20 'squeaker' at North Carolina back on Sep 28 (the Tigers 'escaped' when the Tar Heels failed to convert on a two-point conversion try with just 1:17 remaining in the game). However, the Tigers have surged ever since that 'scare,' rolling to eight wins, while outscoring their opponents 51.9-to-9.8 PPG (no wonder Clemson was 7-1 ATS in that stretch). QB Lawrence did not play well early, throwing five TDs and five INTs in his first three games. However, he finished the season with 34 TDs against just eight INTs, throwing 20 TDs and not a single INT in his last six games (147 attempts). RB Etienne (1,500 yards / 8.2 YPA / 17 TDs) leads a running game that perfectly balances Lawrence's passing game. Clemson averages 294.8 YPG passing and 252.9 YPG rushing, while scoring 46.5 PPG (4th). The Clemson D ranks first in the nation in allowing 10.6 PPG on 244.7 YPG (also No. 1).

Anything you can do, I can do better," is what Ohio St responds with. QB Fields has thrown for 40 TDs and just one INT on the season (308 attempts), while RB Dobbins has rushed for 1,829 yards (6.5 YPA) and 20 TDs. Ohio St's pass/rush balance is VERY similar to Clemson's and the Buckeyes are scoring 48.7 PPG, tops in the nation. Ohio St can't quite match Clemson's defensive numbers but the Buckeyes come awfully close. Ohio St is allowing 12.5 PPG (3rd), on 247.9 YPG 95th).

The superlatives for both teams are endless but for me, it comes down to this. Clemson's dominating season saw them play just ONE team which ended the season in the final CFP rankings, and that was Virginia, at No. 24. Seriously, does ANYONE think that Virginia, which lost 35-20 to Notre Dame and 62-17 to Clemson, while also losing 17-9 to a 6-6 Miami team and 28-21 to a 7-5 Louisville team, is a 'top-notch" football team? Ohio St basically mirrored Clemson's numbers, while beating Wisconsin twice (current No. 8), Penn St (current No. 10) and Michigan (current No. 14), not to mention a 10-3 Cincinnati team (current No. 21), 42-0! Ohio St has been an underdog just SEVEN times since 2012 and is 7-0 SU. Make that "crazy eights!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener (Camping World) is on Iowa St at 12:00 ET.

Notre Dame (10-2 / No. 15 in the CFP rankings) meets 7-5 Iowa State Dec 28 in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fl at 12 noon ET. Both football programs have been around for more than a century (fair to say that Notre Dame has a more storied history) but will meet for the first time. The Fighting Irish are making their NINTH bowl appearance in 10 seasons but a hard-fought 23-17 loss at Georgia back on Sep 21 and then 45-14 blowout loss at Michigan on Oct 26, ended any "Final Four" talk for Notre Dame before the season moved to November. However, the Irish closed with FIVE straight wins, averaging 43.8 PPG in going 4-1 ATS. Iowa State owns wins over Texas and TCU plus its five losses came by a total of 21 points, including one-point losses to ranked opponents Iowa and Oklahoma (were two-TD underdogs against the Sooners), as well as a two-point loss to Baylor. Notre Dame enters the contest with an 18-19 record in bowl games, while Iowa State is 4-10 in bowl appearances.

QB Brock Purdy took over at mid-season in 2018 as freshman, after an injury first to starter Kyle Kempt and then the abrupt departure of backup Zeb Noland. Purdy completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,250 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs while playing in 10 games. The sophomore was the starter this season from Week 1 and enters this contest completing 66.3% with 3,760 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs (he also has eight rushing TDs). Jones leads the team with 72 catches (only two TDs, though) but TE Kolar has seven TDs among his 48 catches and WR Pettway six TDs among his 51 catches. RB David Montgomery (1,216 yards and 13 TDs) is now playing for the Bears and this year's running game is not as good. Hall leads the team with 842 yards on 5.0 YPA with nine TDs. The offense is averaging 34.1 PPG (26th) but ISU's defense is allowing 25.3 PPG (52nd) on 362.2 YPG (44th). That's a slight drop-off from 2018, when it allowed 22.9 PPG on 349.0 YPG.

Notre Dame features senior QB Ian Book, who could elect to come back for a fifth season in 2020. Book struggled at times early on but threw for 12 TDs without an interception in the last three games to finish with 2,787 yards with 33 TDs and just six INTs. Book added 516 rushing yards (4.9 YPA) and four TDs. He's become the first Irish QB to throw for 2,500 yards, rush for 500 and pass for at least 30 TDs in a single season. RB Jones (722 yards on 5.4 YPA and 5 TDs) helps ND's running game average 178.3 YPG (46th). WR Claypool is the team's best pass-catcher, with 59 (15.1 YPC) and 12 TDs. The Irish average 37.1 PPG (13th), while their defense allows just 18.7 PPG (13th) on 325.6 YPG (21st).

On paper, one could argue the Notre Dame side fairly easily, but not I. Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame team played in the CFP semifinals last season (lost 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl to Clemson) plus was in Fiesta and Citrus Jan 1 bowls in two of the previous three seasons, facing CFB 'blue-bloods' LSU and Ohio State in those games. My guess (bet) is that this Dec 28th game holds little allure for Notre Dame and I have NO intention of overlooking the fact that Brian Kelly comes into this game having covered just TWICE in 11 career bowl games.

Meanwhile, Mike Campbell came from Toledo to take the Iowa St job back in 2016. He was just 3-9 that first season but this marks a THIRD straight bowl appearance for the Cyclones for the first time since 2000-02. What's more, Iowa St was 5-2 ATS as an underdog in 2018 and has gone 2-0 ATS as an underdog in 2019. I'm taking any points available but expect an outright win by the Cyclones.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Holiday Bowl Blowout is on Iowa at 8:00 ET.

I'm calling this year's Holiday Bowl, "Rose Bowl Light," with the Pac 12's USC Trojans (8-4) taking on the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3). The Holiday Bowl sure has a Rose Bowl 'feel' but it also serves up a 'battle' between USC's "Air Raid Offense" against Iowa's defensive prowess. USC ranks 5th in the nation averaging 335.9 YPG passing, leading to 33.2 PPG (36th) Iowa counters with a defense which ranks FIFTH in allowing just 13.2 PPG on 304.6 YPG (12th). Looking closer, Iowa is allowing only 184.2 passing YPG, which ranks 11th. The Holiday Bowl venue seems perfectly suited to USC, with its large alumni base in Southern California and San Diego just a short drive away. However, Iowa supporters are well-known for traveling to bowl games and who wouldn't want to escape the snow and cold temperatures of the upper mid-west for a few days of sun and fun?

After losing 30-27 to Notre Dame for the 3rd straight year back on Oct 12, things didn't look good for USC or its head coach, Clay Helton. However, USC survived a season-ending injury to starting QB J.T. Daniels and a concussion to backup Kedon Slovis, among a laundry list of other injuries,ton win FIVE of its last six and finish 8-4 (22nd in both the AP and CFP rankings). Slovis has completed 71.8 percent for 3,242 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs. He's blessed with three WRs who all have at least 68 catches. Pittman leads the way (95, 1,222 yards, 11 TDs) with both Brown and Vaughns each catching 68 balls with six TDs. Remember when USC was nicknamed "Running back U?' No longer, as the Trojans are averaging only 126.3 YPG on the ground (113th) and their leading rusher has just 466 yards! The defense has plenty of question marks, allowing 27.8 PPG (66th) on 415.3 YPG (83rd)

NO ONE questions Iowa's defensive numbers (see above) but the Hawkeyes are averaging a modest 23.9 PPG (99th) on YPG (98th). QB Nate Stanley entered this season with a 52-16 TD-to-INT ratio in his previous two but threw for only 2,738 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs (truly underwhelming). Three RBs have rushed for between 414 and 590 (on 5.0 YPA) but still, Iowa is averaging a modest 139.5 YPG on the season (9th). That said, Stanley's a senior leader and fully capable of "coming up big'" against a mediocre USC defense. The Hawkeyes have ridden their physical style to the cusp of 10 wins for what would be the sixth time in coach Kirk Ferentz's 21 seasons at the helm.

USC's four loses have come by 10.5 PPG, while Iowa three losses have come by a margin of just 4.7 PPG.  More notably, those loses have come 10-3 at Michigan (current CFP No. 14), 17-12 at home to Penn St (current No. 10) and 24-22 at Wisconsin (current No. 8). I believe DEFENSE wins over offense and I'll take Ferentz over Helton any day of the week. Don't be surprised by a 10-15 point Iowa win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener is on North Carolina at 12:00 ET.

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a five-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. North Carolina won its final two games to earn bowl eligibility at 6-6 and  returns to a bowl game for the first time since 2016, looking for its first bowl win since 2013.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and then Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as that school's head coach and he leads the Owls into their FIFTH straight bowl, off an 8-4 season. The highlight of Temple's season was its 30-28 home win over Memphis, the Tigers' only loss of the season, who at 13-1 will play Penn St in the Cotton Bowl (New Year's Six game).

North Carolina relies heavily on freshman QB Sam Howell, who set several single-season school records on his way to being named Rookie of the Year in the Atlantic Coast Conference. He threw for 35 touchdowns with seven interceptions to go with an ACC-leading 3,347 passing yards. He's got some quality WRs in Brown, who caught  a modest 46 passes but averaged 20.6 YPC and had 11 TDs, as well as Newman (64 catches & 8 TDs) and Corrales (36 catches but 6 TDs). A pair of RBs, Carter (919 yards / 5.8 YPA) and Hill (848 yards / 5.6 YPA) , lead a rushing attack that averages 184.0 YPG. Along with Howell's passing, North Carolina has averaged 469.0 YPG (14th), although the Tar Heels are averaging 31.3 PPG 49th), which is less than one would expect with the yardage they've gained.

Temple averages 27.4 PPG (77th), behind QB Russo (just 58.6% completions with 21 TDs and 11 INTs) and a two-headed running attack featuring Davis (900 yards / 5.1 YPA) and Gardner (585 yards / 4.1 YPA). Russo has a quality trio of WRs, in Blue (87 catches but just four TDs), Mack (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and Wright (47 catches / 5 TDs). Temple's D allowed 23.5 PPG (43rd) on 365.0 YPG (46th) but most impressively ended the regular season ranked third nationally in red-zone stinginess.

Temple's senior class is the third-winningest group in program history with 33 victories. "I've really enjoyed my first season here at Temple and only wish that I can spend more time with this outstanding senior class," Owls head coach Rod Carey said.However, here's the rub. As noted above, Carey led the Northern Illinois to five bowls in six years and let me add that he also coached the Huskies in the Orange Bowl (2012 season), after Dave Doeren left to take the NC State job. What do all those bowl games have in common? The Huskies lost EVERY one! Should his 'luck' change here in 2019? I don't see it. Other than Memphis, who did Temple beat. Here's a list of the other seven. Bucknell (FCS), Maryland (3-9), ECU (4-8), USF (4-68), UConn (2-10), Tulane (6-6) and Ga Tech (3-9).

“Our No. 1 goal when we returned last year was to send the seniors out the right way,” Mack Brown said. “Everything we did, from spring practice to summer workouts to fall camp, was with an eye on winning enough games to get these seniors to a bowl game. Now, when this group looks back on their careers, they'll be able to say they helped get the program on the right track and finished with a bowl game. I'm just so happy for everyone involved in our program, but especially, that group of young men.” so far, North Carolina's "highlight of the year" was a 21-20 loss to Clemson (you know, the winners of 28 in a row), when the Tar Heels failed on a two-point conversion with 1:17 remaining in the contest. A win here will replace that game at "the No. 1 spot" and would be the 'cherry on top' of Mack Brown's "Carolina return." That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on La Tech at 4:00 ET.

Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016), which included a 31-14 bowl win over West Va. Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 (as a 12-point favorite) and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC championship game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin. Richt's DC Manny Diaz had already moved to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Is it really a surprise Miami had such a disappointing season (more in a bit).

The 6-6 'Canes meet the 9-3 La Tech Bulldogs in the Independence Bowl on Dec 26 in Shreveport, La. The Bulldogs play in C-USA and were 6-2 in the West Division, but lost a tie-breaker to UAB, which went on to lose the C-USA title game 49-6 playing FAU in its home stadium. However, unlike Miami, La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is finishing up his seventh season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marks the SIXTH consecutive season in which he's led the Bulldogs to a bowl game.What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH of the last five! Should I stop right here? C'mon, you know me better than that.

The Hurricanes' roller-coaster season mirrors the up-and-down play of QBs Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry, both of whom have had their chances but struggled with inconsistency and ineffectiveness. Diaz declared the battle open for the starting job in the Independence Bowl when Williams faltered in the final two games after seemingly turning the corner during a three-game winning streak in late October and early November. A weak offensive line didn't much help Miami's QBs, nor Miami's sad-sack running game that ranked dead last in the ACC (116.5 YPG). Adding insult to injury, leading rusher DeeJay Dallas (693 yards) will not play in this contest. Defense has long been a cornerstone for the Hurricanes but, despite ranking 13th in the country (307.6 YPG), the unit too often failed to get critical stops late in games. Miami's D allowed  57 points in its final two games, with consecutive 'ugly' defeats at local rival and non-power 5 school Florida International (30-24) and ACC foe Duke (27-17), which had come into the game with just two conference victories.

Louisiana Tech struggled down the stretch with back-to-back losses to Marshall (31-10) and UAB (20-14), before coming back to defeat Texas-San Antonio 41-27 in the regular-season finale. Senior QB J'Mar Smith missed the losses to Marshall and UAB, as he was suspended for violating athletic department policy. However, Smith returned for the finale and tossed three TD passes against UTSA. Despite sitting out two games, Smith enjoyed a career year while throwing for 2,814 yards and 17 TDs with just four INTs, earning the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year award. La Tech averages 34.0 PPG (29th) and after an opening 42-14 loss at Texas, the defense only allowed more than 30 points just twice

Breaking it down, both Miami's offense and defense has been erratic all season, so why should we expect them to turn things around here? Miami's offense should have problems vs a La Tech D that ranked THIRD in the nation in stopping opponents inside the red zone, giving up scores just 64.7 percent of the time. As for La Tech and its offense, the Bulldogs have won the last NINE game started by QB Smith. The Hurricanes have played in just one marquee bowl game since a 2005 , losing that Peach Bowl appearance 40-3 to LSU. That loss began a stretch that's seen Miami win just TWO of its last 11 bowl appearances and as noted above, Holtz has led La Tech to FIVE straight bowl wins the last five seasons! Dig deeper and we find that La Tech is 18-8-1 as a dog since 2014 and that the underdog has gone 9-3 ATS in Miami's 12 games this season. Ruston is just under 70 miles from Shreveport, so the Bulldogs should have great support, while is there any reason to expect Miami to be interested? Surely, the school's recent bowl efforts provide none

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Green Bay Packers beat the Chicago Bears 21-13 in Week 15, upping their record to 11-3 (tied with New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle for the NFC's best record). The Packers are a long-shot to get the No. 1 seed but are the favorite to win the NFC North. A win over the Vikings on Monday night will clinch the division for Green Bay but even with a loss, the Packers would still win the NFC North by beating the Lions in Detroit in Week 17 (the Lions are currently 3-10-1). The Vikings routed the Chargers 39-10 in LA last Sunday and enter this contest 10-4 and all but assured of at the least, a wild card spot. The only way Minnesota doesn't clinch a wild card spot would be by losing their last two games (host the Bears in Week 17), while the LA Rams win their final two games, at San Francisco on Saturday and at home in Week 17 to the Cardinals. Assuming that the Packers lose here but win at Detroit, the Vikings will be relegated to a wild card spot.   They could only earn the No. 5 seed (a great position, as the five-seed will play the NFC East champ, either Dallas or Philly) if the 49ers OR Seahawks lose out and the Vikings win out. That sets the stage for this MNF contest. Confused?

The Packers may be 11-3 but they seem to have a patent on “winning ugly” in 2019. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3,463  yards with 24 TDs and just two INTs (in 474 attempts) but similar to Tom Brady, he just hasn't "looked right' in 2019. The Packers rank just 21st in total offense (336.6 YPG) and 14th in scoring (14th). RB Aaron Jones has been Rodgers' "main' man," rushing for 830 yards (4.4 YPA) while scoring 14 TDs. He's also caught 45 passes for three more TDs. Adams leads the team with 63 catches (just 4 TDs) but no other WR has even HALF as many receptions as Adams. Defensively, the Packers are allowing 371.3 YPG (to rank 23rd) but the team has fared better in the category of points allowed (20.2 PPG ranks 9th).

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins has often been criticized but he's completing 70.5 percent on the season with 25 TDs and just five INTs (111.1 QB rating ranks fourth-best). RB Cook (1,175 RY / 4.5 YPA / 13 TDs plus has added 53 catches for 519 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs. He hurt his should again last Sunday and there are conflicting reports surrounding his availability for this game. He's listed as doubtful but Cook has said "Im playing." WR Stefon Diggs has 60 catches (17.9 YPC / 5 TDs) and fellow WR Thielen played last week and had three catches (he has 30 catches but six TDs in nine games). Minnesota has two-headed TE combo (Rudolph and Smith) and the duo has combined for 71 catches and eight TDs. The Vikings offense has played well all season, ranking seventh in scoring (27.0 PPG) and their defense also ranks seventh in allowing a modest 18.5 PPG.

The Packers will likely win the division but the Vikings GUARANTEE themselves a wild card spot with a win here. Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 at home and as noted earlier, Rodgers (like Brady), just seems 'off.' The Packers enter this contest averaging only 19.6 PPG their last six contests and Rodgers enters the game averaging just 189.8 YPG passing in that span. Meanwhile, the oft-maligned Cousisns has thrived since the Vikings installed a moving pocket for him, after the team went 2-2 in September. Minnesota is 8-2 since then, with Cousins throwing 22 TDs and just three INTs, posting QB ratings of over 100.0 SEVEN times. Never thought I'd ever say this but....I'm taking Cousins over Rodgers in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Battle 4 NFC East is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

The NFC East boasts a rich and decorated history but 2019 will NOT go down as a memorable season, unless one wants to focus on the moniker, "NFC Least." The Cowboys, Eagles Giants and Redskins have 'earned' that title, as the four teams are a combined 20-36 (.357), with Dallas and Philly 'leading' the way at 7-7.The Cowboys got a much-need 44-21 win last Sunday, snapping the team's second three-game losing streak of the season. Meanwhile, the Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back wins over the division's two bottom teams, needing OT to beat the Giants in a Week 15 home MNF contest and a fumble return for TD on the game's final play to get past the Reskins, 34-24 in Washington (the Eagles had just scored the go-ahead TD with 26 seconds remaining in the game). Dallas can clinch the division title with a win, while an Eagles win puts Philadelphia in control of its own destiny.

Dallas QB Prescott has thrown for 4,334 yards (2nd-best to Tampa Bay's Winston) with 26 TDs and 11 INTs. He's been dealing with a sprained right shoulder that limited him in practice this week but he declared that he'll "be good to go on Sunday," choosing to NOT add any additional drama surrounding this high-stakes game. WRs Amari Cooper has 71 catches and is averaging 15.1 YPC with eight TDs. Fellow WRs Gallup (56 / 16.3 YPC) and Cobb (45 / 15.0 YPC) give Dallas three receivers all averaging 15-plus yards per catch (that's impressive). RB Ezekiel Elliott had 117 rushing and 43 receiving yards (along with two TDs) in the Cowboys' 44-21 romp over the Rams and checks in with 1,188 yards on the season (4.4 YPA / 11 TDs). The current  Dallas D does not remind anyone of "Doomsday" Part 1 or 2, but the Cowboys rank seventh in total D (323.6 YPG ) and 12th in scoring D (20.6 PPG).

Most feel as if QB Carson Wentz has had a poor year and he sure was awful in when the Eagles lost 37-10 to the Cowboys in Week 7 at Dallas (he tossed an interception and had two of Philadelphia's three lost fumbles). However, he's thrown for 3,431 yards on the season with 25 TDs and just seven INTs. He'll enter this contest having answered the team's three-game losing skid by throwing for 591 yards and five TDs without an interception in wins over the Giants and Redskins. He's done all that (the last two weeks and for most of the season), while dealing with an injury-depleted WR corps. TE  Zach Ertz is headed to his third straight Pro Bowl with 84 catches and six TDs (47 receptions for 544 yards and five TDs have come over the last six games). The team's second TE, Goedert, has 45 catches and four TDs. Howard opened as the team's featured RB and played well when healthy (525 yards / 4.4 YPA / 6 TDs) but he hasn't played since Week 9. Miles Sanders had 172 scrimmage yards (122 rushing, 50 receiving) in the Eagles' 37-27 victory over Washington last Sunday to boost his season total to 1,120 (687 rushing), with both  totals serving as franchise records for a rookie. Philly's D has had a injury-filled season as well but has gotten healthier and now ranks 9th in total D (328.5 YPG) and 19th in scoring D (23.4 PPG).

No matter how many times the Cowboys disappoint, they still seem to have plenty who will say that Dallas will nail down the NFC East title, here. I'm NOT one of them. Wentz has battled through a tough season and enters this contest with at least one TD pass in 17 straight games, the longest streak of any QB. The Cowboys do not own a SINGLE win against a team that is currently "in" the playoff field and has lost to playoff-bound teams New Orleans, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England and Buffalo. Lose here and the Cowboys will likely make Philly a playoff team in 2019. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

 

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Oak/LAC Over at 4:05 ET.

The 6-8 Oakland Raiders and the 5-9 Los Angeles Chargers have nothing to play for entering Sunday's meeting in Carson, Ca. The two longtime AFC West rivals are both coming to the end of disappointing seasons. The Raiders have lost their last FOUR games, including this past Sunday's 20-16 defeat to the Jags. The Raiders led 16-3 at the half but the Jags rallied to score the game's final 17 points, handing the Raiders a loss in their final home game in Oakland. Meanwhile, the Chargers have dropped FOUR of their last five, including last Sunday's 'ugly' 39-10 home loss to the Vikings, as Rivers threw three INTs plus lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

Oakland QB Derek Carr has completed a career-high 70 percent of his passes for 3,372 yards with 19 TDs and eight INTs but hasn't recorded a 300-yard outing this season. In fairness to Carr, he's got a very average (I'm being VERY kind) group of WRs, with TE Waller leading the team with 80 catches. Rookie RB Josh Jacobs (1,150 rushing yards, 4.8 YPA and seven TDs) has been outstanding but will sit out the game with a shoulder injury. Oakland's defense is allowing 27.6 PPG (28th) on the season, after allowing an average of 34 points during their four-game slide.

Sure, Rivers went over the 4,000-yard mark for the 11th time during last week's 39-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings (4,055 on the season) but he's thrown 11 INTs in LA's last five games (1-4 slide) and on the season, has almost as may INTs (18) as TD passes (21). RB Melvin Gordon ran for 885 yards on 5.1 YPA with 10 TDs last season, while adding 50 catches and another four TDs. However, he held out early in the season and enters this game having rushed for just 551 yards (4.0 YPA / 5 TDs) plus has a modest 30 catches. His backfield partner Ekeler has 500 yards (4.2 YPA / 3 TDs) and also 78 catches (2nd-best on the team) with a club-high 8 TDs. WR Keenan Allen (1,046 yards, five touchdowns) was selected to his third straight Pro Bowl with his third straight 90-catch season and is 13 away from surpassing the career-best 102 he caught in 2017. LA's defense has been solid, allowing 20.7 PPG (13th) on 307.6 YPG (5th).

The Los Angeles Chargers will bid farewell to their temporary home of three seasons on Sunday, playing their final game at Dignity Health Sports Park, before they move into SoFi Stadium for the 2020 season. The 27,000-seat facility used mainly for soccer hasn’t been much of a home-field advantage, as visiting team fans have drowned out local fans. Last week’s game against Minnesota was dominated by Vikings fans in the lower deck. The same is expected on Sunday with a large percentage of Raiders fans still in Los Angeles. This could be the final home game for Rivers and Gordon, with both being in the final year of their contracts. Both have also struggled in what has been a disappointing season. When the Chargers played in Oakland (Nov 7), the Raiders won 26-24 but Gordon rushed for a season-high 108 yards. Rivers did not fare well, passing for just 207 yards with two TDs and three INTs. However, I expect Rivers to exploit a decimated  Raiders secondary (remember: Oakland has allowed 34.0 PPG during its four-game slide) but I also expect the Raiders to stay close, as the Chargers are 2-6-1 ATS when favored in 2019. That translates into an O-V-E-R, this meaningless contest.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 5:30 ET.

The Camellia Bowl on Dec 21 in Birmingham, Al features 6-6  Florida International and 7-5 Arkansas State. FIU is 'bowling' for the THIRD straight season, all under current head coach Butch Davis (1-1 SU & ATS), despite going 3-5 in C-USA (tied for the third-worst record in the 14-team league). Meanwhile, Arkansas St is headed to a bowl game for NINTH straight year, including SIX in a row under head coach Blake Anderson, although he's only 1-4 SU & ATS in the postseason,.

FIU became bowl-eligible on Nov 23, when the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory, a 30-24 home win over Miami (Panthers were a three-TD underdog). Senior QB James Morgan has thrown for a modest 2,248 yards with just 13 TDs but he has not made many mistakes (three INTs in 319 attempts). FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (802 yards / 4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and Maxwell (609 yards / 5.3 YPA and 8 TDs). The receiving corps is led by Shemar Thornton and Tony Gaiter IV, who combined  to make 97 catches for 1,189 yards and nine TDs. The FIU defense allows 26.7 PPG (61st), doing much better against the pass (178.5 YPG ranks 6th), than the run (205.1 YPG ranks 111th)..

Arkansas State has battled adversity on and off the field this season, as head coach Blake Anderson's wife died from breast cancer Aug 19. On the field, junior QB Logan Bonner sustained a season-ending injury to his throwing hand in Week 4, after passing for 1,052 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. However, redshirt freshman QB Layne Hatcher went 5-3 after taking over for Bonner, throwing for 2,553 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs (his pass efficiency rate of 173.5 ranked first in the SBC). Hatcher was named the SBC's  Freshman of the Year. He's blessed with an outstanding trio of WRs, starting with Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year (senior WR Omar Bayless). Bayless has 84 catches for 1,473 yards with 16 TDs (his yards and TD totals rank second to only LSU's Ja'Marr Chase). Kirk Merritt had 64 catches for 763 yards and 11 TDs, despite playing in Bayless' shadow, while Jonathan Adams Jr. (58 receptions, four scores) provides Hatcher a solid third option. The Red Wolves' D is a liability, allowing 34.8 PPG (117th) on 481.9 YPG (127th).

Basically, the Red Wolves need to outscore their opponents to win. I expect them to do just that, here. FIU was blessed with SEVEN home games this season (went 6-1) but went 0-5 on the road, while allowing 40.4 PPG. This is NOT a road game but it's NOT a home game, either. Arkansas St entered its final game of the regular season on a four-game winning streak (averaging 38.0 PPG) but then 'got caught napping' in a 34-30 loss to South Alabama, which ended a nine-game losing streak. I respect Butch Davis but I do not believe FIU can match Arkansas St score for score and this program gets some extra kudos for appearing in its NINTH straight bowl game. As noted above, the Red Wolves are just 1-4 SU & ATS under Anderson in bowl games but it would be a nice story for Anderson to cap the season with a bowl win, after losing his wife Wendy, just before the the season opened. Christmas comes a few days early for Anderson and his team.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (AFC East) is on the NE Patriots at 4:30 ET.

The 10-4 Buffalo Bills and 11-3 New England are both in the postseason but there still is plenty at stake when the AFC East rivals square off Saturday afternoon at Gillette Stadium. New England, clinched a record 11th consecutive trip to the playoffs last week but the Pats can wrap up the division title and has a chance to earn a first-round bye with a win against the visiting Bills. History is sure on New England's side, as following a hard-fought 16-10 victory at Buffalo in Week 4 the Pats have won SIX straight against the Bills and 34 of the last 39! However, the Bills would argue, that was THEN and this is NOW. Buffalo has won FOUR of its last five, including road victories at Dallas and Pittsburgh, and holds a two-game edge for the fifth seed in the AFC and still has a shot at the division title with two wins and two losses by New England. However, that's NOT likely, as the Pats host the 3-11 Dolphins in Week 17.

Head coach Sean McDermott has done an excellent job with the Bills,as he has Buffalo in the postseason for the second time in his three years, after Buffalo had missed the previous 17 seasons. Second-year QB' Josh Allen is completing a modest 59.3% for 2,876 yards with an 18-9 TD/INT ratio. He also has run for 467 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from a being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made great strides in his second season. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (28) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons plus has two more games to add to that total. Allen helps the Bills rushing game (see above), while rookie Singletary (729 yards / 5.4 YPA) and the ageless Gore (573 yards / 3.6 YPA) join him to give the Bills the NFL's fifth-best rushing attack (134.9 YPG). Allen's top targets are WRs Brown (71 / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Beasley (60 / 11.2 YPC / 6 TDs). The Buffalo D is playing as well as any the last month, limiting THREE of four opponents to 15 points or less and now ranks second in points allowed (15.9 PPG) and third in total D (291.9 YPG) on the season.

That said, NO team has played better defense in 2019 than the Pats. New England ranks first in scoring D (12.9 PPG) , as well as total D (268.4 YPG). The defense has been the key to a season in which Tom Brady has looked 'old,' the running game has never really produced with any consistency and the receiving corps has struggled with injuries and basically, a lack of quality talent. Brady has thrown for 3,565 yards with 21 TDs (his 17th straight season of at least 20) and seven INTs, hardly one of his better seasons. The running game ranks 19th, averaging only 101.8 YPG (Michel has 742 yards on just 3.6 YPA). Edelman (92 catches / 6 TDs) continues to play like the Energizer Bunny but other than RB White, who has 65 catches, the remaining group of New England receivers leave a lot to be desired. However, despite ranking 18th in total offense (349.9 YPG), the Pats are finding a way to average 26.6 PPG (8th-best).

Here's the bottom line. Gillette Stadium opened in 2002 and has been a 'house of  horrors' for Buffalo, as the Bills have won just TWO of 17 visits there. One of the victories occurred when Tom Brady was serving a suspension and the other time being when Brady just played a half. I gave kudos to Buffalo's McDermott earlier (with good reason) but he's 0-5 vs the Patriots, losing by an average margin of  15.6 PPG. As noted earlier, the Patriots are averaging 26.8 PPG. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 28th in passing and are 22nd in points (20.8), having scored 17 or fewer points in HALF of its 14 games. What's more, the only teams the Bills have beaten that now own a winning record are the 8-6 Titans and the 8-6 Steelers (reminder: Pats are 11-3). Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Total of the Week is on Central Michigan/SD State Over at 2:00 ET.

9-3 San Diego State is going to its 10th straight bowl and 9th in a row under head coach Rocky Long. Aztecs are headed to Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque for the New Mexico Bowl. Long still has plenty of ties in New Mexico, as he was the Lobos' starting QB from 1969-1971 and then was the head coach at his alma for 11 years (1998-2008), leading New Mexico to five bowl appearances. San Diego State won six of its final eight games and waiting the Aztecs will be the 8-5 Central Michigan Chippewas, who lost 26-21 to Miami (Ohio) in the MAC championship game on Dec 7. However, Central Michigan made the biggest turnaround in the nation this season under Jim McElwain, who took over as head coach last December after John Bonamego was fired following a 1-11 season. McElwain was named MAC Coach of the Year after leading the Chippewas to an 8-5 record and their 10th bowl game in the last 14 years. 

The Chippewas rely on an offense that averages 31.9 PPG (44th) on 444.4 YPG (27th). Quinten Dormady took over after Central Michigan lost starting QB David Moore to an NCAA suspension after he tested positive for a banned substance. He's passed for 2,148 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs. He's got a solid trio of WRs led Pimpleton (All-MAC 1st team), who led the conference in both receptions (73) and receiving yards (771). RBs Ward (1,082 / 6.2 YPC / 15 TDs) and Lewis (977 yards / 5.5 YPA / 11 TDs) give Dormady excellent 'cover.' CMU's defense is average, allowing 26.8 PPG (62nd), although DE Sean Adesanya led the MAC with 14.5 tackles-for-loss and was second in sacks with seven. LB Troy Brown led the team in tackles (78) and interceptions (three) plus ranks second in the MAC with 14.0 tackles-for-loss.

It's 'being kind' by saying that the Aztecs feature an uninspiring offense, as SDSU comes in averaging 19.0 PPG (119th). Senior QB Ryan Agnew (11 TDs / 5 INTs) missed the Aztecs’ 13-3 win over BYU on Nov. 30 due to a left calf injury but is expected to return for the bowl game.The team's rushing game is virtually non-existent, averaging 135.3 YPG (99th) on 3.3 YPA. Washington is SDSU's leading rusher and he's gained only 500 yards (3.3 YPA). However, the Aztecs' D is allowing only 12.8 PPG (4th) on 288.7 YPG (5th). The team's rush D allows just 72.4 YPG (2nd) and ranks ninth with 15 INTs. LB Kyahva Tezino, CB Luq Barcoo plus DJ Myles Cheatum and Cameron Thomas were all Mountain West first team selections. Tezino leads the Aztecs in tackles (96) and QB hurries (22), while Barcoo is tied for the national lead in total interceptions (eight), pass breakups (16) and recorded 51 tackles.

SD St has had a roller-coaster of a season that included wins over UCLA, Fresno State and BYU but all featured losses to Utah State, Nevada and Hawaii. The Aztecs will need to get creative to keep pace with a Central Michigan offense that's averaged 37.6 PPG since Dormady took over as its starting QB. The Chippewas have a well-designed offense and the weather looks fine (sunny and in the 40s at kick-off is the forecast). It's true that there are times when one wonders if SDSU's offense will EVER score but the Aztecs did average 19.0 PPG. Remember, this over/under total is the LOWEST of all 41 bowl games and if the Aztecs can hit their season average, this game will 'fly' over. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans 'cooled off' the red-hot Titans last Sunday in Nashville, edging Tennessee 24-21. The victory gives the Texans a 9-5 record and they can clinch the AFC South division for the FOURTH  time in five seasons on Saturday afternoon when they visit the suddenly streaking Tampa Bay Buccaneers, whose four-game winning streak is the team's longest since a five-game run in 2016.

QB Deshaun Watson was selected to the Pro Bowl for the second straight year, as he nears another 4,000-yard campaign. When on, Watson is among the very best in the league but he's been known to be inconsistent. Watson is completing 67.8% for 3,668yards with 26 TDs and 11 INTs, while adding 376 rushing yards (5.0 YPA) and seven more scores. WR DeAndre Hopkins joins him as a Pro Bowl selection. He has 99 catches with seven TDs and needs one catch to record his third career 100-reception season. Fellow WR Fuller is a terrific partner but has struggled with injuries (not sure about his availability for this one). TEs Akins and Fells each have 31 catches with Fells tying Hopkins for a team-high seven TD receptions. RB Hyde (1,030 yards / 4.6 YPA / 5 TDs) has been a 'savior,' stepping in when Lamar Smith was lost for the year in the preseason. Houston is hopeful that defensive lineman J.J. Watt (pectoral), who has been out since Week 9, could return in the postseason. Houston's defense has been up-and-down without him, allowing 23.6 PPG (19th) on 379.4 YPG (28th).

The Bucs were just 3-7 after 10 games but as noted above, have won FOUR in a row but need to win these last two weeks for just their SECOND winning season in the last nine years. QB Jameis Winston continued his hot streak in last week's 38-17 win at Detroit, passing for 458 yards and four TDs. Tampa Bay owns the NFL's third-ranked offense (400.1 YPG), led by the league's top-ranked passing attack (308.8 YPG). Winston became the first player in NFL history to throw for at least 450 yards in consecutive games (vs Indy in Week 15 and against Detroit in Week 16). He leads the league with 4,573 passing yards on the season and could become just the 12th player in league history to throw for 5,000 yards in a season. WR Goodwin leads the team with 86 yards (15.5 YPC / 9 TDs) but is nursing an ailing hamstring. What's more, Mike Evans (67 catches / 17.3 YPC / 8 TDs) is now on injured reserve. The running game is woeful, averaging 91.4 YPG (3.5 YPA), ranking 28th. The defense is allowing 350.1 YPG (15th) but 28.4 PPG, which ranks 30th.

With the pressure is off at 3-7, the Buccaneers put together a four-game win streak. Big deal. Those victories have been against the Lions, Colts, Jags and Falcons, who take a combined record of 19-36-1 (.348) into Week 16. Winston may have 30 TD passes but he also has 24 INTs, SIX more than any other QB. Watson is an elite QB with dual threat  skills, while Winston just could wind up with a 30-30 season (TD-INT). The Buccaneers are 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS at home this season and I see little reason for them to 'spoil' Houston's chance to clinch its division.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Madness Play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET.

Drew Brees threw for 325 yards and five TDs (zero INTs) last Sunday, leading the Saints to 46 points. However, the 'kicker' is that New Orleans allowed the 49ers to score 48 points while rolling up 516 yards. The loss dropped the Saints (along with the Seahawks) one game behind the 49ers in the race for the NFC's  No. 1 seed . However, the Saints (as well as Seattle) got some help on Sunday from the Falcons, who beat the 49ers 29-22 in San Francisco. Seattle won its Sunday game at Carolina and is now 11-3 and owns the tie-breaker over San Francisco in the NFC West The 10-3 Saints reside in the NFC South but can now tie those two NFC West teams at 11-3 atop the NFC along with 11-3 Green Bay (tie-breakers pending) with a win over the visiting 6-7 Indianapolis Colts, who enter having lost FIVE of their last six.

The Colts were once 5-2 but they're now one loss from playoff elimination. QB Jacoby Brissett has done a good job at QB (was thrust into the starter's role with the abrupt retirement of Andrew Luck), completing 63.2% for 2,496 yards with 18 TDs and just six INTs. However, he threw for a pair of TD passes for the first time since Sep 29 in last Sunday's 38-35 setback to Tampa Bay. Brissett has been greatly hampered by the fact that four-time Pro Bowl selection T.Y. Hilton has missed five of his last six games with an ailing calf, after sitting out only four games in first seven seasons. Hilton has played in just seven games this season (35 catches / 10.8 YPC / 5 TDs) and will be a game-time decision here. Third-year RB Marlon Mack returned last week and played with a broken hand (900 yards / 4.4 YPA) but had just 38 yards on 13 carries. Here, he will face a New Orleans rush defense allowing just 94.Y2 YPG (4th). Indy's defense has been shredded for 69 points the last two games and can't be looking forward to seeing Drew Brees.

The Saints went 5-0 while Drew Brees was out with a thumb injury early this season. but while Bridgewater deserves kudos for the job he did, it's GREAT to have Brees back. After last week's game, he's completing 72.5% on the season with 17 TDs and just four INTs (109.5 QB rating). RB Alvin Kamara's offensive numbers haven't been up to his lofty standards but he's got 612 rushing yards (4.4 YPA) and has added 68 catches. He's ably helped by Murray, who has 533 yards (4.7 YPA) with five TDs. WR Michael Thomas has shown no sign of a letdown, as he made 11 catches for 134 yards last week to join Antonio Brown as the lone NFL players to have more than one season with 120-plus receptions and 1,400-plus receiving yards. Thomas has 121 catches  for 1,424 yards (7 TDs) and he and Brees will exploit an Indianapolis' pass defense that allowed Tampa Bay's Winston to throw for 456 yards and four TDPs last Sunday.

The Saints really need a win here to join Seattle and San Francisco at 11-3, as those two will meet in Week 17, where one HAS to lose. The Saints have NOT been as dominant at home recently (as in the past) but this Indy team is 'limping' to the finish line. The Saints will honor the 10-year anniversary of their only Super Bowl win, by bringing members of the 2009 team together for a reunion prior to the game. New Orleans posted a 31-17 victory over Indianapolis in Super Bowl XLIV. Another 14-pont margin, at a minimum, is expected here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET.

The 9-4 Buffalo Bills had a three-game winning streak come to an end in a 24-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday and are staring at a tough two-game road stretch as they try to lock up a playoff spot. The Bills are currently the No. 1 wild card team but they must  visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday and  then  have to travel to Foxboro to take on the Patriots. The 8-5 Steelers are surging with wins in THREE straight and SEVEN of their last eight, but the red-hot Titans are also 8-5 (Pittsburgh currently owns the tie-breaker), after winning FOUR in a row. If the Titans beat the Texans earlier today, the loser of this game will be 'sweating.'

Buffalo QB Josh Allen has make great strides in his second season, as he'thrown foir 2,737 yards (17 TDs / 8 INTs) plus run for 439 yards and eight TDs. Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (27) and 12 rushing TDs (16) in his first two seasons plus has three more games to add to that total. However, he struggled against a tough defense last week, completing just 17 of 39 (43.6%) for a modest 146 yards (QB rating of only 62.6). Buffalo's running game is averaging 135.3 YPG (5th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks second in points allowed (16.3 per) and third total D (296.8YPG).

The Steelers lost their first three games and Big Ben was lost in Week 2, for the season. However, using a combination of Mason Rudolph and Devlin "Duck" Hodges at QB, Mike Tomlin has his team right in the playoff hunt. Hodges became the first undrafted rookie to win his first three starts with last week's 23-17 triumph over Arizona. "He's been able to gain more traction and gain more exposure," Tomlin told reporters of Hodges, who is completing 71.3 percent of his passes and went 16-of-19 for 152 yards and a touchdown last week. Some good news could be coming Hodges' way, as RB James Conner (shoulder) and wide-out JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) both returned to practice this week. Kudos to the jobs Rudolph and Hodges have done but Pittsburgh's turnaround has been fueled by its defense, which has allowed  just 14.6 PPG over its last five games.

The 'knock' on Buffalo has been that the only team with a current winning record that the Bills have beaten is Tennessee (8-5, after four straight wins). As for Pittsburgh, while Baltimore's John Harbaugh is likely to be named coach of the year, Mike Tomlin deserves serious consideration. His Steelers opened 0-3 and again, Big Ben was lost for the season in Week 2. However, the Steelers have won EIGHT of 10 since that 0-3 start, losing only in OT at home to Baltimore and 21-7 at Cleveland. This is Pittsburgh's final home game of the season and a win here plus a win at the Jets in Week 16 would get them to 10 wins, meaning its Week 17 game at Baltimore may not need to be won. We saw Allen struggle last week vs Baltimore's D (at home) and here on the road, Pittsburgh's D should again give him fits. Pittsburgh lost two of its first three home games (by two points to Seattle and in OT by three to Baltimore) but is 5-0 SU and ATS in its other five home games (has won FOUR straight), holding those opponents to 13.2 PPG. Steelers get the win.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:25 ET.

The 8-5 Los Angeles Rams are two games better than the 6-7 Dallas Cowboys but they face an uphill climb to make the playoffs with just three games remaining in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are below .500 and mired in a three-game losing streak, but currently are tied for the NFC East lead with Philadelphia, while owning the tiebreaker due to a 37-10 Week 7 home win over the Eagles. LA's postseason chances appeared to be on 'life-support' following a 45-6 drubbing by Baltimore in Week 12 but the Rams have rebounded with lopsided victories over Arizona and Seattle to move within one game of Minnesota for the sixth seed in the NFC. In contrast, the Cowboys have lost THREE in a row and badly need a win here, as they travel to Philadelphia next Sunday

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC) but they managed only 35 points in a three-game stretch (1-2),  before erupted for 62 points in back-to-back victories in Weeks 13 and 14. Jared Goff threw for 717 yards and four TDs in the two wins, after posting QB ratings of 51.2, 69.9 and 62.0 with five INTs and zero TDs while averaging only 209.3 YPG passing in from Weeks 10 through Week 12. Is the Rams' offense back? Maybe but I'm not sure? Gurley is NOT the same player he was last season, WR Woods has just one TD reception all season and fellow WR Cooks' miserable season continued against the Seahawks, and his limited playing time (27 of 70 offensive snaps) is another concern to add to the list. He's been held to just 12 receptions for 162 yards over the past seven games (note: he's averaged 80 catches for over 1,200 yards the last five seasons).

Dak Prescott leads the league in passing yards (4,122) while Ezekiel Elliott (1,071 yards) and Amari Cooper (1,054 yards) each rank fifth in their respective categories, marking the first time Dallas has a 4,000-yard passer along with a 1,000-yard rusher and receiver. However, while Dallas is averaging an NFL-high 430.8 YPG, the Cowboys' average of 25.7 PPG ranks just 9th-best. On the defensive side of the ball, Dallas has been reasonably consistent all season and enters this contest allowing 20.5 PPG (12th) on 326.2 YPG (8th).

I realize the Cowboys are in a funk but a win here gives them a chance to clinch the NFC East next Sunday. The Rams' win over Arizona hardly proves anything and while the Rams dominated a strong Seattle team last Sunday, the Seahawks were overdue for a 'flat spot' after three straight hard-fought wins at San Francisco and Philadelphia plus at home to Minnesota. My bet says the Cowboys "come up big," while the Rams playoff hopes all but disappear with a loss.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Vikings at 4:05 ET.

The 9-4 Minnesota Vikings hope to move closer to a playoff spot when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. Minnesota is one game ahead of the LA Rams in the battle for the NFC's second wild-card spot but also stands just one game behind Seattle for the No. 1 wild card spot, as well as one game behind the first-place Green Bay Packers in the NFC North. As for the 5-8 Chargers, they have already been eliminated from playoff contention, missing the playoffs for the EIGHTH time in the last 10 seasons.

Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter recorded three sacks in last Sunday's 20-7 victory over the Detroit Lions, raising his season total to 12.5 and career count to 52.5 (note: he's the youngest player, at 25 years, 40 days, in NFL history to reach 50 career sacks. He's the star of a defense that has allowed 14 or less points in five games and enters this contest allowing 19.2 PPG (7th). Dalvin Cook (1,108 RY / 4.6 YPA / 13 TDs plus 50 catches for 503 yards) is one of the NFL's best all-purpose RBs, while WR Stefon Diggs (56 catches / 997 yards / 17.8 YPC / 5 TDs) will top 1,000 receiving yards on Sunday. That will make them the first Minnesota duo since RB Adrian Peterson (1,383 rushing) and Sidney Rice (1,312 receiving) in 2009 to each top 1,000 yards. QB Kirk Cousins is often criticized but he's s completing 70.1 percent on the season with 24 TDs and just four INTs (112.0 QB rating ranks third-best).

Los Angeles established season highs for points, total offense (525 yards) and first downs (27) against Jacksonville in last Sunday's 45-10 win. Rivers has thrown for 3,748 yards and is almost assured of eclipsing 4,000 passing yards for the 7th straight season and for the 11th time in the last 12. However, he's thrown 15 INTs putting him on pace for the third-most in any of his seasons. WR Allen has 81 catches but fellow WR Williams has 40 catches with just one TD, after catching 10 last season.  RB Gordon has played in just nine games (only 523 yards on 4.0 YPC), while backup Ekeler has 481 yards (4.3 YPA) plus a 73 receptions (team-high 8 TD catches). LA's defense is allowing just 19.3 PPG and ALL eight of the team's losses have come by seven points or less.

Yes, the Chargers are MUCH better than their 5-8 record, as they own a plus-38 point differential. However, LA's late-game execution has doomed them repeatedly all season. In contrast, the Vikings pulled out a pair of narrow victories in November, helping their playoff push which has seen them win SEVEN of nine with Cousins throwing 21 TD passes against just two INTs in that nine-game stretch. The Vikings have only lost at KC and Seattle in their last nine games and as noted above, the Chargers have found ways to lose games all season. No "margin" to worry about here and I believe the Vikings win quite handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 1:00 ET.

The 10-3 Seattle Seahawks will travel to Charlotte to take on the 5-8 Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The Seahawks had a five-game winning streak snapped with last week's 28-12 loss at the Los Angeles Rams and are one game behind the first-place San Francisco 49ers in the NFC West, while holding the top wild-card spot. Carolina won FIVE of six after an 0-2 start but at 5-3, has dropped FIVE straight games. That led to the firing of ninth-year head coach Ron Rivera earlier this month, with Perry Fewell being named interim coach for the remainder of the season

The Seahawks have posted EIGHT straight winning seasons under coach Pete Carroll and with a win on Sunday, can clinch a playoff berth for the SEVENTH time in eight seasons. QB Russell Wilson has thrown 26 TD passes while being intercepted just five times but after posting a 118.2 QB rating through his first nine games, Wilson is at just 82.7 over the past four (4 TDs and 4 INTs during the stretch). Seattle's had a excellent set of complementary RBs with Chris Carson (1.057 yards on 4.3 YPA and 5 TDs) as the primary option and Rashaad Penny (370 yards on 5.7 YPA and 4 TDs) as the change of pace. However, Penny suffered an ACL injury on his first offensive touch last Sunday against the Rams and is through for the season. Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is no more, as Seattle is allowing 24.7 PPG (23rd) on 335.5 YPG (26th)

Fewell said that Kyle Allen, who has thrown 12 interceptions over the past seven games, will remain the QB over third-round pick Will Grier. Just maybe, the Panthers actually do miss Cam Newton. Newton underwent foot surgery earlier this week and there are no guarantees he will be back with Carolina for the final season of his contract. Then there is Panthers RB Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey has 1,220 rushing yards and 726 receiving yards and is looking to join Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig as the only players in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He needs 274 yards receiving in the last three games to join that elite club. The Carolina defense is allowing 27.7 PPG (5th-most) on 373.9 YPG (9th-most).

The Seahawks were overdue for a 'flat spot' after three straight hard-fought wins at San Francisco and Philadelphia plus at home to Minnesota. I don't make too much of Seattle's loss at the Rams. The Seahawks have won seven of the 10 regular-season meetings with the Panthers and are 4-0 at Carolina in the regular season during the Russell Wilson era. Let's NOT forget that Seattle was 6-0 SU on the road prior to last Sunday OR that Carolina has been outscored on average 31.2-to-18.2 PPG during its current five-game slide. Seattle clinches a playoff spot with a win, as Carolina's slide continues.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Chi/GB at 1:00 ET.

The Bears and Packers will meet for the 200th time Sunday at legendary Lambeau Field. The forecast at kick-off as the team's renew the NFL’s oldest rivalry is 17 degrees with a wind chill factor of eight, according to the National Weather Service. The high is expected to be 19, nine degrees below average for Dec 15 in Green Bay. The Bears have won THREE straight and FOUR of five to remain in the mix for a wild card spot at 7-6, while the 10-3 Packers are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot but have plenty of work left to lock down the NFC North and, perhaps, a first-round bye. These teams opened the 2019 season with the Packers winning 10-3 at Chicago back on Thursday, Sep .

The Packers were out-yarded by the Bears in that opening week win when Chicago QB when Trubisky was playing terrible. However, Chicago's turnaround can be tied directly to the improved play of Trubisky, who has completed 70 percent of his passes with seven passing touchdowns and two rushing scores during the three-game winning streak. "He has continued to gain confidence and trust with himself and then with his teammates," QB coach Dave Ragone told the Chicago Tribune. "Hopefully that continues the rest of the season. But you've seen the progress. Things have been clearer. Sharper." Veteran WR Allen Robinson (76 catches / 7 TDs on the season) has been the beneficiary of Trubisky's solid play, recording 19 catches for 265 yards and four TDs during the 3-0 run. Rookie RB David Montgomery (just 680 RY on 3.5 YPA) is also "coming around," with 161 rushing yards the last two games, while averaging 4.5 YPA.

Green Bay is averaging a pedestrian 18.8 points during its last five games, despite meeting the Redskins and Giants during this time frame. Those issues were clearly evident in a sluggish 20-15 home victory over a three-win Washington team that gave Green Bay all it could handle last Sunday. "I just know we're not where we need to be as a football team," head coach Matt LaFleur told reporters this week. "I still think ... I'm optimistic we can get there." Green Bay had 167 passing yards and 174 rushing yards in last week's win, after posting 243 and 79, respectively, in a victory at the New York Giants the previous Sunday. There is a sense that the offense needs to find its identity for the stretch run. Aaron Rodgers has a terrific 23-2 TD-to-INT ratio on the season but he's had a QB rating of over 100.0 in four different games this season, but also four with under 90.0. He has clearly become highly reliant on RB Aaron Jones (779 YR on 4.4 YPA with 12 TDs plus 45 catches with 3 TDs) in first-year coach Matt LaFleur's offense but Jones has four games with at least 150 yards from scrimmage and five with fewer than 50.

No doubt the Bears are playing better and Green Bay is not a "complete" team but Rodgers is 18-5 as the starter against the Bears and including the playoffs, the Packers have won 16 of the last 19 meetings with their bitter rivals. Yes, the Bears have won FOUR of five but the wins have come over the QB-less 3-9-1 Lions (twice), the 2-11 Giants (currently on a 9-game losing skid) and the 'imploding' Cowboys. It will be cold in Green Bay but sunny and we get to go "over" a very low number. I sure don't trust the Bears but on "current form," I am beginning to have some faith in Trubisky. That said, Rodgers is overdue for a "big game" and why not here against the team's most-hated rival and one that Green Bay has dominated the last decade (see above). This one is Goin' Over (no 10 FGs in this one, like last week's 'nightmare' with the Dolphins/Jets)!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Pats at 4:25 ET.

The New England Patriots opened the season 8-0 but a Week 9 loss at Baltimore (37-20) ended the team's run at replicating the 16-0 regular season they accomplished back in . Now, as team welcomes the KC Chiefs to Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, last Sunday's 28-22 loss at Houston leaves the Pats at 10-2, tied for teh NFL's best record with the 49ers, Saints, Seahawks and Ravens),. However, the pats have lost their grip on the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs Ravens own the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win). The Patriots look to rebound from their second loss in four weeks and clinch their 11th consecutive postseason berth against visiting Kansas City on Sunday afternoon. The Chiefs suffered a pair of narrow defeats to New England last season, 37-34 in the regular season (MNF in New England) and a 37-31 home loss in the AFC championship game , one that kept them from reaching the Super Bowl. However, the 8-4 Chiefs can clinch the AFC West title with a win (would also need an Oakland loss) and in the process, could end the Patriots' 18-game home winning streak.

QB Patrick Mahomes 'exploded' on the scene in 2018, throwing for 5,097 yards with 50 TDs and just 12 INTs (113.8 QB rating) to win the league's MVP award. He opened strong again in 2019, throwing for 1,510 yards (377.5 per) in KC's 4-0 start with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, KC then lost back-to-back home games to the Colts (19-13) and Texans (31-24). The following week in Denver (on a Thursday night), Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap that kept him sidelined for the next two games. He returned in Week 10 at home against the Titans and while he threw for 446 yards, KC lost 35-32. The Chiefs have won two in a row since (sandwiched around a bye week), but Mahomes has thrown for just 182 and 175 yards in those wins. Mahomes sure doesn't get much help from his running game, with Darrel Williams going on injured reserve and Damien Williams (rib) still not practicing. The leaves veteran LeSean McCoy and rookie Darwin Thompson to carry the load, which they haven't done very well. KC is averaging 94.5 YPG (24th). The defense has started to play better but KC still can't stop the run, allowing 141.3 YPG, third-worst in the NFL.

Tom Brady know all about not getting much support from his running game. New England barely averages more rushing yards than KC (96.3 YPG) but the Pats are averaging a pathetic 3.5 YPA, to KC's 4.2. New England's offense continues to sputter and only two late TD passes from Brady last week enabled the team to surpass 20 points for the first time in the last four games. Yes, Brady has 18 TD passes against six interceptions but he has barely completed more than 50 percent of his passes over the last three games and has not registered a QB rating of at least 100.0 since Week 5 at Washington. Since opening with seven TDs and zero INTs in his first three games, Brady's ratio is just 11-6 over the Pats' last nine games, as he's thrown one or zero TD passes SIX times. However, New England's defense has been superb, allowing an NFL-low 12.1 PPG on 258.0 YPG (2nd).

Here's the bottom line. Mahomes has not looked the same in his last two games and while New England's and Brady's recent play have caused some to say, "the Pats are finally becoming human," this is NOT the spot to go against them. The Patriots have lost to the Ravens and Texans, failed to cover against the Cowboys and only scored 17 points in beating the Eagles in their last four games (have averaged just 18.0 PPG in that span). However, the two losses have come on the road, NOT here in Foxboro. New England has won 22  straight home games (including the postseason), with 19 coming by SIX points or more. Want more? New England is coming off a loss and the Pats are a remarkable 42-16 ATS (that's 72.4%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The NFL enters Week 14 with FIVE 10-2 teams The AFC features Baltimore and New England, while the NFC features New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle. Tow of those 10-2 teams square off Sunday when the 49ers take on the Saints in the Superdome. The Saints have already clinched a postseason berth and wrapped up a division title but they have the inside track on the top seed in the NFC playoffs. The Saints have won three straight and NINE of 10, as they welcome the 49ers to New Orleans. The 49ers opened 8-0 but have lost two of four, both on last-second FGs, to fall into a tie with Seattle atop the NFC West, although the Seahawks own the tiebreaker.

San Francisco's defense is allowing a league-low of 250.9 YPG and ranks second in points allowed at 15.3 PPG. It held up well against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week, allowing just 20 points but still lost. I've always been somewhat skeptical of QB Jimmy Garoppolo but he's had a very good season, completing 69.0% for 2,896 yards with 21 TDs and 10 INTs (he's registered a QB rating of at least 110.2 in five of his last six games). He's done all this with a mediocre group of WRs, although TE Kittle (54 catches) is a "big time" performer. The running game averages 148.0 YPG, which ranks second-best to only Baltimore (Ravens are averaging a 'monster' 207.8 YPG). Keeping its RBs healthy as been a major issue, as Breida, Mostert and Coleman have all been in and out of the lineup with nagging injuries.

This has been some impressive season for the Saints, as when Brees missed five games due to a thumb injury, Bridgewater stepped in to go 5-0 as starter. Brees is back and while he's not quite the "Brees of old," he's completing 73.8% with 12 TDs and just four INTs (104.4 QB rating). WR Thomas has 110 catches and has been the "go-to" guy for both Brees and Bridgewater. The Saints miss Ingram (now with Baltimore) but in Kamara (587 yards on 4.7 YPA plus 64 catches) and Murray (464 yards on 4.4 YPA) make up a quality RB duo. The New Orleans D has been plenty good enough, allowing 20.7 PPG on 323.4 YPG.

Here's the rub. The 49ers opened 8-0 but in that span, they beat just ONE team with a winning record at the time of the game (Rams were 3-2). They are 2-2 their last four, losing to now 10-2 teams Seattle and Baltimore. The Saints are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS their last 10 and have extra rest and preparation time (played on Thanksgiving), while the 49ers are off a physical road loss to Baltimore. To combat that, instead of flying home after last week's game in Baltimore, the 49ers opted to spend the week in Florida instead to avoid more cross-country flights and another time change (will it help?). It can't hurt but this is an off-surface and different environment for the 49ers playing on carpet inside a dome. In the end, Drew Brees owns a HUGE edge on Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, making the Saints a STRONG play at this price.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins opened 0-7 but in Week 9, broke through for their first win, 26-18 at home over the NY Jets. The Dolphins upset the Colts the following week (Brissett was out for Indy) but then lost convincingly to the Bills and Browns. However, Miami played its best game of the year last week in beating the Eagles 37-31 as a 10-point home underdog. The Dolphins  now get a rematch with the Jets at MetLife Field in the Meadowlands. The Jets know all about bad starts, as they opened 0-4 and 1-7. The Jets looked great in winning three straight from Week 10 through 12 but threw in a major 'clunker' in Week 13 (naturally!). After scoring 34 points in each contest during their three-game winning streak, the Jets lost 22-6 at then-winless Cincinnati (0-11). New York totaled just 271 yards with two FGs, reminding all that they are the J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets!

Miami,erupted for season-high totals in points and yards (408) in its 37-31 victory over Philadelphia on Sunday. Journeyman QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a season-high 365 yards and three TDs. Former first-round WR DeVante Parker continued his hot stretch with seven catches for career-high totals in yards (159) and TDs (two) against the Eagles. He has 20 catches the last three games and a team-high 53 on the season. Fitzgerald is pretty much counted on to produce the points for Miami, as the Dolphins rank last in the NFL in averaging 62.8 YPG on 3.1 YPA (the team's leading rusher has all of 201 yards!). Defense is a problem as well, as Miami is allowing 31.4 PPG, ranking dead-last in that category, as well.

Sam Darnold can 'feel Fitzgerald's pain,' as the Jets are one notch above the Dolphins, as their running game ranks 31st with 72.6 YPG (3.3 YPA). Good thing New York signed Le'Veon Bell, huh? Sam Darnold, who overcame a bout of mononucleosis earlier in the season, turned a season-high 48 passes against the Bengals into just a 58 percent completion rate and 71.4 passer rating -- totals that were his second-lowest of 2019 (239 yards without a TD or INT). However, let's NOT ignore that he entered last week's game having averaged 279.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and just ONE INT in leading the Jets to 34 points in each outing (all wins). By the way, Darnold's working with a pretty mediocre cast of receivers, and I'm being kind.

Here's the 'dope.' Both QBs are on "do it alone missions" but the good news is that they face VERY vulnerable opposing pass Ds. The Dolphins have allowed 29 TD passes, while intercepting just EIGHT passes in 395 attempts. Then there is Miami's non-existent pass rush, which has a league-low 16 sacks. Want a comparison? No other team has fewer than 20, with Carolina leading the league with 46!. The Jets pass D is not quite as bad, allowing a more modest 19 TD passes but the Jets only have seven INTs in 447 pass attempts against.

The weather will not be quite as nice as it was in Miami when the teams met back on Nov 3rd but no rain or snow in the forecast (zero percent chance of precipitation) with kickoff temperatures around 40 degrees (good football weather). As noted above, Fitzpatrick has no running attack so the game plan is "just air it out!" Throw early and often, as the Miami defense can't stop anyone (see above for a reminder). Darnold has to be 'licking his chops' looking at Miami's defense on film and he's got some "making up to do" off last week's 'ugly' effort at Cincy and that Week 9 loss at Miami. In that one, Darnold threw a TD pass about five minutes into the contest and then Miami's dreadful D held the Jets out of the end zone the rest of the game. The Jets will score on the Dolphins, who will surely keep up enough for this game to 'fly' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SEC Championship Game Showdown is on Georgia at 4:00 ET.

The SEC has been the dominant conference for quite some time now and the question after the winner of this year's title game is crowned will be, "Will there be ONE or TWO schools from the SEC in CFP 2019's 'Final 4?' Georgia lost just one game in 2019 (a 20-19 two-OT shocker at home to South Carolina) but its resume also includes wins over three teams in the top-12 at the time of those games. The 4th-ranked 11-1 Bulldogs bring a defense to Atlanta allowing just 10.4 PPG (2nd) on 247.0 YPG (4th) to face a 12-0 LSU team (No. 1 in the AP and No. 2 in the CFP rankings) , which owns wins over then-No. 9 Texas, then-No. 7 Florida, then No. 9 Auburn and then-No. 3 Alabama on its list of 'victims.' The LSU offense ranks both second in scoring (48.7 PPG) and in total yards (560.4 YPG). This is LSU's first appearance in the SEC title game since 2011, while Georgia is in it for the third consecutive season.

The Georgia offense is hardly pedestrian, as it averages 32.9 PPG on 420.6 YPG. QB Jake Fromm is a three-year starter who owns a 21-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2019 and a 75-16 ratio in his career (he's 34-6 as a starter). However, WR Lawrence Cager (ankle surgery) is out plus freshman WR George Pickens is suspended for the first half Saturday (both Cager and Pickens have 33 catches, tied for a team-best). Junior RB D’Andre Swift ranks fourth in the SEC in rushing yards (1,203 yards on 6.2 YPA with 7 TDs), leads a rushing attack averaging 200.0 YPG on 5.7 YPA. He left last week’s 52-7 rout of Georgia Tech with a left shoulder injury but he's listed as probable against LSU.

LSU's Joe Burrow is the first player in SEC history to pass for 4,000 yards (setting a conference record with 4,366 yards) and at least 40 TDs (44), Burrow passed for 352 yards and three TDs in last week’s 50-7 rout of Texas A&M and is currently the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman. and he ranks second nationally in passing yards, touchdowns, passing yards per game (363.8) and passing efficiency (203). WR Ja’Marr Chase has 70 catches and leads the country with 17 TD receptions, while ranking second with 1,457 yards (20.8 YPC) Junior WR Justin Jefferson  has 81 catches and has hauled in 13 TDs. RB Edwards-Helaire has run for 1,233 yards (6.8 YPA and 16 TDs),  to lead a running game which averages 170.4 YPG on 5.0 YPA. The defense is allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) but has looked a little shaky at times late in the season.

Maybe I'm 'nuts' going against LSU's Burrow but this Georgia D will be the best unit LSU has faced all season. Talking about the LSU defense, it has allowed 38 points to both Vanderbilt and Texas, 28 to Florida, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Mississippi. Georgia KNOWS it has to win here or it will miss the 'Final 4.' I WANT the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Championship Saturday Game of the Month is on FAU at 1:30 ET.

Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin turned things around quickly though, winning NINE of 10 to capture the C-USA East at 7-1 (9-3, overall).

Bill Clark was UAB's head coach in 2014 (6-6) but the school shut down the football program in 2015 and 2016. Clark remained as head coach when the school resumed play in 2017, going 8-5 after a 41-6  Bahamas Bowl loss to Ohio. However, UAB won the C-USA West title last year (7-1) and then beat Middle Tenn St in the title game, 27-25. That led to a 37-13 win over Northern Illinois  in the Boca Raton Bowl to finish 11-3. The Blazers are back in the C-USA championship game again, after going 9-3 (6-2 in league play), advancing over La Tech (also 6-2) due to a 20-14 home win over the Bulldogs on Nov 23.

Things did not look good for UAB when it opened November with a 30-7 loss at Tennessee and followed with an 'ugly' 37-2 loss at Southern Miss. However, the Blazers finished with THREE straight wins. Two were over 1-11 UTEP and 4-8 North Texas but that Nov 23rd home win over La Tech, turned out to be the tie-breaker. Starting QB Tyler Johnston went down with a knee injury in early November (he did make a brief return in last Saturday’s West-clinching win at North Texas) and freshman backup Dylan Hopkins has barely been serviceable in relief. In his four starts, he's completed 37 of 68 (54.4%) for 483 yards with two TDs and three INTs. That's NOT good enough when one's team is averaging a modest 161.2 YPG rushing, with the team's leading rusher (Brown), accounting for only 462 yards on 3.9 YPA.  UAB's defense will have to "win it," as the Blazers are allowing just 18.5 PPG (15th) on 271. YPG (5th).

Keeping FAU's offense in check will be a tough job, as during the Owls' 9-1 run (7-3 ATS) run their last 10 games, they've averaged 37.4 PPG. QB Chris Robison has emerged as an effective game-manager for Kiffin, passing for 3,125 yards with 22 TDPs and just five INTs. FAU's running game is no better than UAB's (it averages 155.1 YPG) but as already alluded to, FAU has regularly put points on the board in its closing run (held under 30 points just ONCE in its last 10 games).

UAB was able to win 27-25 at Middle Tenn St in last year's title game, after losing 27-3 to the same Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro only the week before. There’s no similar quick-rematch angle in 2019 and while QB Johnston has not yet officially been ruled out for UAB, I don't think UAB can "keep up" with FAU here at home, where the Owls have averaged 37.2 PPG under Kiffin. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008 and the Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 11-1 Mountaineers enter this year's SBC championship game (played at Boone, NC in the Mountaineers' own Kidd Brewer Stadium) ranked 20th in the AP poll and 21st in the CFP rankings. Their opponent will the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, just like last year in the SBC's inaugural title game. ULL is 10-2 on the season and will be trying avenge not only last years 30-19 title-game loss but a 17-7 loss at home to Appalachian St back on Oct 9 of this year. That said, the "revenge angle" hasn't worked well for ULL, which has lost all SEVEN meetings with App St since 2014.

ULL features three RBs with 750 or more rushing yards. Elijah Mitchell (1,007 yards / 6.0 YPA /  14 TDs) leads the pack, followed by Raymond Calais (833 yards / 7.9 YPA / 6 TDs) and Trey Ragas (762 yards / 7.5 YPA / 11 TDs). The trio combines for the nation's 6th-best rushing game (274.2 YPG). Junior QB Levi Lewis has thrown for 2,450 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. ULL enters averaging 38.8 PPG (12th) plus owns a defense allowing just 17.8 PPG (11th) 

Appalachian State averages 38.9 PPG (11th) led by QB Zac Thomas, who has thrown for 2,427 yards with 24 TD passes and just six INTs this season (he is 21-3 as a starter). The Mountaineers don't run quite as well as ULL but RB Darrynton Evans has rushed for 1,250 yards and 16 TDs this season, adding three more scores as a receiver plus returning a KO for a TD. Like ULL, App St's defense has held opponents in check, allowing 18.8 PPG (18th) on 321.2 YPG (19th).

First-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz had big shoes to fill with the departure of predecessor Scott Satterfield to Louisville but he's delivered "big time," as Appalachian State's 11-1 record is the best 12-game mark in Sun Belt Conference history.  What's more, the team is coming off arguably its most complete effort of the year in a dominating 48-13 beatdown of Troy. QB Thomas has 45 TDPs and only 10 INTs the last two-plus years and his backfield mate, RB Evans, has compiled 2,437 rushing yards and 23 TD over last two campaigns (note: Evans recorded 218 all-purpose yards, including 111 rushing and a 97-yard kickoff return in the 2018 Sun Belt title game). As good as App St has been against conference opponents (42-7 in Sun Belt games), I won't discount ULL in this one. The Ragin’ Cajuns haven't lost since that 17-7 Appalachian State win back on Oct 9. It's been SIX straight wins since, averaging 39.5 PPG. Then again, the Mountaineers have won all seven matchups since 2014 (when they joined the SBC) by an average of  20.5 points and 22.8 at home. I'm staying away from an ATS pick but will be "all over' the total in this one. NO WAY we will see another 17-7 game, like back on Oct 9. Both teams have excellent defense but their respective offenses will be the dominant units in this game. App St is averaging 43.7 PPG at home this season and for ULL to 'hang,' the Ragin’ Cajuns will have to score. This one is Goin' Over! 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

The Chicago Bears and Dallas Cowboys enter this game with identical 6-6 records but while the Bears sit two games out of the sixth and final NFC playoff , the Cowboys actually lead the NFC East by one game and for all intents and purposes, remain in control of their playoff destiny. The Cowboys have seen a 3-0 start to the 2019 season go 'south, as Dallas followed its 3-0 start with an 0-3 skid and after back-to-back wins over NFC East rivals Philadelphia and New York, has lost THREE of four (Cowboys enter on a two-game slide). The Bears opened 3-1 but then lost FOUR in a row. However, Chicago has kept its slim playoff hopes alive by winning THREE of four (more on that, in a little bit).

Dallas was held to just three FGs by the Pats in a four-point Week 12 road loss and then surrendered 23 unanswered points to the Bills in a 26-15 defeat at home on Thanksgiving. Dallas has the No. 1 offense in the NFL at 432.8 YPG, as Dak Prescott has passed for an NFL-best 3,788 yards with 23 TDs, 11 INTs and three rushing TDs. RB Ezekiel Elliott has 990 yards rushing (4.4 YPA and 7 TDs)  plus WR Cooper has 64 catches (15.2 YPC) for 7 TDs. However, Dallas couldn't get in the end zone at New England plus repeatedly came up empty after scoring on the opening drive vs Buffalo. With over 430 YPG of offense, Dallas should be scoring more than 25.8 PPG (ranks 8th). The Dallas D has done a decent job, ranking 8th in both points allowed (19.7) and yards allowed (321.6).

Chicago's defense has again been strong in 2019, as the Bears are allowing just 17.3 PPG (4th) on 319.7 YPG (7th). However, the Trubisky-led offense has averaged only 17.7 PPG (27th) on 281.8 YPG (29th). However, Trubisky got untracked against on Thanksgiving by throwing for a season-high 338 yards to go with three scores (he directed a winning 90-yard  drive at Detroit). WR Anthony Miller had a breakout game with a career-high nine catches for 140 yards while fellow WR Allen Robinson added eight receptions for 86 yards and a score. Rookie RB David Montgomery had 75 yards rushing on only 16 carries, after he was limited to 40 yards or less in FIVE of his previous seven contests (he's Chicago's leading rusher at 594 yards, averaging 3.5 YPA for a  team averaging only 79.3 YPG on the ground)

Are we really seeing a Trubisky turnaround? He is 94 of 145 for 979 yards, eight TDs, four INTs and a 91.1 rating in the past four games. However, the three wins have come against last-place teams like the Lions (twice) and the Giants (Detroit & New York are a combined  5-18-1). Crunching the numbers further, we find that Tubisky has a 124.4 QB rating in two games against the Lions this season and a passer rating of  72.1 versus the rest of  the league! I'm sure no fan of Dallas or beleaguered head coach Jason Garrett but while the Coboys haven't done too well beating good teams, they have been able to get past the beatable ones (save the Jets). "Talk is cheap right? We've talked a lot," QB Prescott said. "We've talked a bunch and got ourselves right to where we are. In a moment like this I say hell with the talking and I'm going to do more. I'm going to work harder and if you're a young guy looking for somebody to figure it out, how to do it, yeah, look at me and some of these other guys because that's exactly what we're doing -- putting our head down focusing and doubling down on ourselves." Dak CAN and WILL be able to beat the Bears and Trubisky.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota  atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row  since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019).

The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best).

MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2!

I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However,  Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added  two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning  record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much!  One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home.

Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET.

The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17.

The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010.

Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and  a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd).

There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0%  for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games).  DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th.

Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett  back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Dec Total of the Month is on Ten/Ind Over at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season. What could be different here? The Titans have produced 842 total yards over the past two games and are averaging 29.4 PPG over the last five, third in the NFL during that span behind only Baltimore (39.3) and San Francisco (30.8). Tannehill is also tied for third in the NFL with Lamar Jackson in passer rating (111.4), behind only Minnesota's Kirk Cousins (114.8) and Seattle's Russell Wilson (112.1). I won't buck Indy and the team's domination of the Titans in this venue, nor will I 'step in front of' Indy's ATS record its last 10 against a wining team. However, for the Colts to keep those streaks 'alive,' they will have to outscore the Tannehill and Henry-led Tennessee offense, playing with supreme confidence. My play is O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Sometimes, "change is good." After averaging 16.3 PPG with Mariota under center, the Titans have won FOUR of five with Ryan Tannehill taking over at QB (more in a bit). Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, the Colts, like the Titans, are 6-5. Both are one game behind the 7-4 Texans, who host the 10-1 Pats in a SNF contest in Week 13. Both Tennessee and Indianapolis will be rooting for New England but both also know, regardless of the result of that contest, the loser of this game will see its division hopes take a big hit, likely throwing them into crowded wild-card field.

The Titans have surged into the playoff picture by scoring 77 points in home victories over Kansas City and Jacksonville, sandwiched around their Week 11 bye The Titans' turnaround has been led by Tannehill, who has thrown 10 TDs against just three INTs in the team's 4-1 run, posting QB ratings between 109.8 and 155.8 in the four wins. He was 14 of 18 for 259 yards with two TDs and zero INTs in the team's 42-20 win over the Jags, posting a near-perfect QB rating of 155.8 ( is perfect). Aiding and abetting Tanehill in the team's last two wins has been RB Henry, who now has 991 yards on the season (4.8 YPA / 10TDs / plus two receiving TDs), after running for 347 yards (8.3 YPA and 4 TDs) in those home wins over KC and Jax. Tennessee's defense has had another solid year, allowing 19.7 PPG (10th), after allowing 18.9 PPG ( 3rd) in 2018.

One thing is for sure, Indy head coach Frank Reich, has demonstrated he can cast aside the outside 'noise.' The Colts started 1-5 last season (his rookie year) and were left for 'dead.' However, the Colts rallied to win EIGHT of nine and clinch a wild card berth. Entering 2019, Andrew Luck's retirement during the preseason left almost all discounting Indy's ability to rebound. Instead, Jacoby Brissett took over and led the Colts to a 5-2 mark. However, there IS concern, as the Colts have lost THREE of their last four. The Colts will play their second straight game without RB Marlon Mack (broken right hand), who has 862 rushing yards on the season. However, Jonathan Williams got his first 100-yard game after the injured Mack left the Jacksonville game 116 yards on just 13 carries) and followed that with a second 100-yard game last Thursday at Houston (104 yards on 26 carries), his first career start. Brissett did NOT play well in Indy's 20-17 loss at Houston in Week 12 (16 of 25 for 129 yards without a TD) but on the season, he's completing 64.6% with a 15-4 ratio and a QB rating of 95.7.

Brissett threw three TD passes in Indy's 19-17 Week 2 win at Tennessee. The Titans  now look for revenge at Lucas Oil Stadium but there's one small problem. The Colts are 10-1 SU & 9-1-1 ATS  (90%) the last 11 times hosting the Titans. What's more, the Colts are also 9-1 ATS (again, 90%) the last 10 times playing against an opponent with a winning record since the start of the 2018 season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland would go 2-6 through the season's first eight games, as QB Mayfield, who energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), regressed in Year 2. He completed only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3 in the team's first eight games. However, the Browns were able to snap a four game losing strek in Week 10 (19-16 ay home over the Bills0 and have followed with two more home wins, 21-7 over the Steelers and 41-24 over the Dolphins. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but after a 1-4 start, surged  into playoff contention by winning FOUR of their next five. Better-than-expected QB play from Mason Rudolph and improved defensive play led the way.  However, the Steelers lost 21-7 at Cleveland in Week 11 (you may just have heard about "the brawl") and followed with a less-than-impressive 16-10 victory at the winless Bengals in Week 12. As the team's get set for  a quick "rematch," the Browns are 5-6 and the Steelers 6-5. both teams are both fighting for a wild-card spot and the winner of Sunday's game will have the upper hand in a tight race that features five teams within ONE game of the No. 6 slot in the AFC.

In Cleveland's three-game winning streak, Mayfield has seven TDs and just one INT and is coming off his best game of the season last Sunday, completing 70.6% for 327 yards with three TDs and just one INT for a 118.1 QB rating. He has excellent skill players in RB Chubb (1,117 yards / 5.0 YPA / 7 TDs / 30 catches) plus WRs Landry (59 catches / 14.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and OBJ (54 catches / 14.4 / 2 TDs). However, the Browns' D is no better than average, allowing 22.9 PPG (18th) on 338.5 YPG (14th).

Mason Rudolph had not exactly been 'filling Big Ben's shoes" but he was playing well enough for Pittsburgh to win. However, he played poorly in that Thursday night loss in Cleveland (four INTs and a QB rating of 36.3) and was just 8-of-16 for 85 yards and a interception before being replaced against the Bengals. Rookie QB Devlin "Duck" Hodges followed Rudolph and was 5 of 11 for 118 yards with a TD and zero INTs. Rudolph will be on the sidelines for Sunday's game, as here's what Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin said. "We met as a staff, we decided that we're going to start Duck this week," he told reporters. "Really, the decision is clear for us. ... I thought he provided us a spark in-game. I'm hopeful that he's capable of continuing to provide that spark as we step into this stadium." Hodges was effective but hardly overwhelming in a 24-17 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers back on Oct 13 while filling in for an injured Rudolph. Still, he's won over teammates with his confidence and won over his coaches by avoiding the kind of killer mistakes that have dogged Rudolph recently.

Yes, the Browns have won THREE in a row (I had  them in their Week 11 win over the Steelers) but I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs. Cleveland's been a 'dog' franchise for quite some time now and now that there's a 'sliver of hope,' I expect the Browns to return to "being the Browns." It's a wide-open AFC wild-card race but through all its ups-and-downs in 2019, Pittsburgh currently holds the last spot. This is a HUGE rivalry and expect an electrified atmosphere Sunday at Heinz Field, on the heels of "the brawl." The Browns have been the 'betting choice," as Pittsburgh opened a three-point favorite but now it's Cleveland in the role of a road favorite in Pittsburgh, where the Browns haven't won since 2003 (you read that right!). As bonus, it's Mike Tomlin on the sidelines over a seemingly clueless Freddie Kitchens. It's 'Duck Season', not 'Wabbit Season' today in Pittsburgh.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 start and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FOUR of its last five (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win at SMU to avoid falling to 6-6 (after that promising 5-1 start). Sonny Dykes has done in less than two seasons, what his SEVEN predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982.The Mustangs opened 8-0, rising as high as No. 14 in the AP poll (15th in the CFP rankings) but SMU welcomes Tulane to Dallas having lost TWO of their last three. It's tough to be too hard on SMU though, as the losses have come by SIX points at 10-1 Memphis and by seven at 8-2 Navy.

Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.

9-2 SMU's chance at a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game was lost in falling at Memphis and Navy but the team still has a shot at its first 10-win campaign since 1984. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams) will try to hit double figures in the win column when they close the regular season by hosting Tulane on Saturday. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams), could not overcome the team's D allowing 140 points (46.7 PPG) over its last three games (lone win came 59-51 over East Carolina).Then again, the Mustangs took a 21-10 lead into the half against Navy but were outscored 25-7 after the break and failed to put up points over the final 12 minutes. QB Shane Buechele (3,446 yards with 30 TDs and just eight INTs owns a big-time WR in Proche (95 catches with 13 TDs) plus WR Roberson an TE Granson have combine for 77 catches with 14 TDs. RB Jones has rushed for 1,124 yards on 5.3 YPA with 19 TDs (also two TD catches).

Kudos to Sonny Dykes and the job he has done at SMU and a 10-win season (how about an 11-win one with a victory here and in a bowl game) would be quite something for a program that was 1-11 and 2-10 in back-to-back seasons not too long ago (2014 & 2015). Tulane has not gotten the job done on the road (see above) and why should that change here, after its season has basically fallen apart? The Mustangs own a four-game winning streak in the series, winning with teams nowhere-near as good as this 2019 edition. SMU is 5-0 SU at home, averaging 48.6 PPG with an average margin of victory checking in at 18.0 PPG. Does laying 3-4 points seem like "too much" to you? It doesn't to me.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET.

Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday  to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one

Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' 

So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.

FAU and Marshall entered the 2019 season as the two favorites to win C-USA's East. FAU has won FOUR in a row to take over first-place with a 6-1 record, while Marshall and Western Kentucky are one game back at 6-2. Marshall is coming off a 24-13 loss to Charlotte, a victory that allowed the 49ers to become bowl-eligible for the first time since joining the FBS is 2015. The good news for Marshall is, the Thundering Herd own wins over FAU and Western Ky, so if they can win here and the Owls lose at home to Southern Miss (FAU is a nine-point favorite), Marshall would represent the East in next Saturday's championship game. Marshall welcomes 6-5 FIU to Huntington, the week after that school's first-ever win over a Power-5 school. The Panthers upset Miami-Fla 30-24 last Saturday as a 21-point home dog.

FIU is scoring 26.5 PPG (83rd) and allowing 26.4 (58th). QB James Morgan tossed two TD passes and the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory against Miami. However, while Morgan has not made many mistakes (two INTs in 282 attempts), he's completing a modest 58.2% for just 2,012 yards with 12 TDs. FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (750 yards / 5.0 YPA / 8 TDs) and Maxwell (589 yards / 5.4 YPA and 7 TDs) plus a receiving corps without a notable player. Marshall QB Green is no better than Morgan, completing 58.4% for 2,115 yards with 13 TDs and nine INTs. Like Morgan, his receiving corps lacks a "play-maker" but Marshall will own the best offensive player on the field in RB Knox (1,138 yards / 5.4 YPA / 10 TDs).

Marshall can't count of FAU losing but it can win here and then wait to see what happens tonight in Boca Raton. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! He's built a winning program and while Marshall is 1-5 ATS at home, it is 5-1 SU, averaging 31.8 PPG. FIU's win over Miami was a HUGE deal (most agree it was the program's most significant victory) and win or lose here, the Panthers' bowl destination will not be affected. Coming off the Miami win, how does one NOT go against a team that is 0-4 on the road in 2019, getting outscored 43.0-to-17.2 PPG!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.

The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champ will earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl game. No. 18 Memphis is currently the highest-ranked team in the CFP rankings and it will host No. 19 Cincinnati on Friday. The winner of this game will host the AAC championship game on Dec 7. If Memphis wins on Friday, it will be rematch with Cincinnati. However, if the Bearcats win, they will host the title game but if Navy beats Houston (Midshipmen are currently favored by 8.5 points ), Navy, NOT Memphis, would be Cincy's opponent. Got all that?

Cincinnati has only one loss this season, against the nation's No. 2 team, Ohio State (No. 1 in CFP rankings) in its second game of the season. The Bearcats enter this contest on a NINE-game winning streak but THREE of their last four wins have come by three, three and two points. Sophomore QB Desmond Ridder has played the last two games with a shoulder injury, as the Bearcats have failed to pass for more than 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 1997 (had 78 yards against USF and 62 against Temple). However, Cincy's passing game hasn't been much all season, averaging just 179.5 YPG (110th). RB Warren (939 yards / 4.8 YPA / 11 TDs) is joined by two other RBs with 400-plus yards on the season, as Cincy's running game ranks 34th (197.3 PPG). Cincy's defense is allowing just 19.9 PPG (23rd) and that includes two games in which it allowed 42 (Ohio St) and 43 points (East Carolina?).

Memphis owns the best offense Cincy has faced since Ohio St. The Tigers are averaging 42.2 PPG (8th) behind the passing of QB Brady White (67.1% for 3,074 yards with 30 TDs and seven INTs) and the running of Kenneth Gainwell (1,294 yards on 6.8 YPA with 12 TDs). Memphis enters with a streak of FIVE consecutive contests of 40 or more points and three straight games with more than 510 yards of total offense. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl?

Anything less than a New Year's Six one, at this point, would be a disappointment. To accomplish that, Memphis will have to beat Cincy here and again, NEXT Saturday. Here's the good news. Memphis is 5-0 SU at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-24.4 PPG. What's more,under Norvell, Memphis is 13-1 SU and ATS (that's 93%), in the month of November (home or away), averaging 49.1 PPG. I'm NOT stepping in front of this 'train!'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The New Orleans Saints are 9-2 and own a four-game lead in the NFC South. However, the Saints still have much to paly for, as they are battling the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks for the NFC's No. 1 seed (note: 8-3 Green Bay and Minnesota lurk). New Orleans have survived an injury to its future Hallof Fame QB, as Teddy Bridgewater stepped in and the team never 'blinked.' Now, Brees is back as the Saints enter their playoff 'push.' As for the Falcons, doesn't it seem like their Super Bowl appearance (2016 season) was more like 10 years ago? Atlanta 'limps' into this Thanksgiving night game 3-8, including 1-4 at home. Thursday night's game is a rematch of a Week 10 contest in New Orleans. The Saints were riding a six-game winning streak when they were blindsided by the visiting Falcons, 26-9. It marked the first time New Orleans failed to score a TD at home with Brees operating the offense since he came to the Saints in 2006.

The Saints are in command in the NFC South but the team's defense is trending in the wrong direction. New Orleans had  held FIVE straight opponents to fewer than 260 total yards but the Saints have allowed an average of 334.0 YPG over their last three games, with the 351 total yards they surrendered to the Panthers last week marking their highest total since Week 3. Drew Brees and the offense took a one-game 'hiatus' in the above-mentioned loss to the Falcons but put up 418 total yards last week as Brees threw three TD passes for the second straight game (Saints have scored 34 points in back-to-back games after scoring NINE in that loss to the Falcons). Brees is completing 75.7% of his passes and while Ingram is in Baltimore these days, RBs Kamara (526 rushing yards on 4.6 YPA plus 60 catches) and Murray (462 yards on 4.5 YPA) give him enough 'cover.' On the season, New Orleans' D is allowing 20.9 PPG (13th) on 321.3 YPG (10th).

Matt Ryan passed for 300-plus yards in each of Atlanta's first six game but the Falcons won just ONE of the six. He's averaged a more modest 230.8 YPG passing the last four contests, with Atlanta going 2-2. Is passing less 'the ticket.' Not really, as the Falcons have the second-worst running game in the NFL, averaging 72.9 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPA). Atlanta's 26-9 shocker of the Saints in New Orleans was followed by a 29-3 win at Carolina but anything idea that Atlanta had 'righted the ship,' came crashing down in last Sunday's 35-22 home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons surrendered 446 total yards and had a hard time getting the run game going with 57 rushing yards (note: TB entered that game at 2-8 ATS, the worst pointspread record of an NFL team).

Atlanta's upset win at New Orleans in Week 10 was one of NFL 2019's most improbable wins (sacked Brees SIX times) but forewarned is forearmed. The Saints are 4-0 SU & ATS on the road this season and come into this contest an NFL-best 20-8-1 ATS (71.4%) in road games since 2016. Atlanta was once an excellent home team but no more. The Falcons beat Philly 24-20 at home in Week 2 but they have since lost FOUR in a row at home, allowing 30.8 PPG. "Matty Ice" (what a fraudulent nick-name) gets out-dueled by Brees in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

Sure there are state bragging rights involved in this year's "Egg Bowl" (always are) but Mississippi State has added motivation entering  its regular-season finale against its bitter rival on Thanksgiving night. The Bulldogs have made a bowl appearance in a school-record NINE consecutive seasons and can extend that streak to an an 10 when they host Ole Miss on Thursday night. As for Ole Miss, the Rebels can do no better than match last year's disappointing 5-7 season by earning a fifth win in 2019 with a victory over their bitter rival.

Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag was removed on November 26, 2017 and he became the 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) put some pressure on Luke. Luke didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. However, Ole Miss checks in at 4-7, including 2-5 in the SEC. The Rebels' hopes tonight will rest on rest freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee, who already has rushed for 989 yards and 11 TDs. In his last game (11/16 vs No. 1 LSU), he ran for a season-high 212 yards and four rushing TDs. RB Jerrion Ealy also set a season high with 141 yards rushing on only 13 carries vs the Tigers. Ealy is part of a trio of RBs who have for for between 481 and 640 yards on the season, accounting for 15 TDs. Ole Miss ranks 7th in the nation in rushing, averaging 261.5 YPG on 5.6 YPC. MacIntyre has not done much to improve the Rebels' defense, as Ole Miss enters this final game of the season allowing 27.0 PPG (62nd).

Miss St is just one win shy of bowl-eligibility but the Bulldogs 'limp' into this contest having dropped FIVE of six before routing overmatched FCS foe Abilene Christian 45-7 last weekend. Speculation regarding the status of Miss St head coach Joe Moorhead  is swirling, if the bowl streak ends Thursday. "We have to do two things: make sure we play well and keep the Egg here in Starkville," Moorhead said. "If we do that, then we will extend the season and get to play in a bowl game." RB Kylin Hill is the SEC's leader rusher (1,215  yards on 5.8 YPA and 11 TDs) and needs 176 yards to match the school's single-season record. The QB situation has been in flux all season, as Tommy Stevens has thrown for fewer yards (934) than backup Garrett Shrader (1,062). MSU must avoid another slow start, as teh Bulldogs have scored a combined 13 points in the first quarter of their six losses. The Bulldogs' D is slightly worse than the Rebels, allowing 28.8 PPG (75th).

Joe Moorhead (only previous head coaching job was at Fordham) was hired as the head coach at Mississippi State before the 2018 season, replacing Dan Mullen who had been with Mississippi State for nine seasons before being hired by the University of Florida. (Mullen led MSU to a bowl in his final EIGHT seasons at Starkville). Moorhead looks a poor fit at MSU, as this season's 2-5 SU & ATS record in SEC games attest. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has played much better in the SEC, going 6-1 ATS (lone non-cover was a seven-point loss to A&M as a six-point underdog). There has NOT been a home field edge in recent Egg Bowls, as the visiting team has won and covered each of the last four years. Look for Ole Miss to 'spoil' Miss St's bowl aspirations in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.

All the NFL's top teams won on Sunday, as the 49ers and Pats moved to 10-1, while the Seahawks and Saints (just barely) moved to 9-2. Monday night, the 8-2 Baltimore Ravens will bring their six-game winning streak (NFL's longest current winning streak) to LA in an effort to "Keep up with the Joneses!" Baltimore has DOMINATED in its last four victories, winning 30-16, 37-20, 49-13 and 41-7, as QB Lamar Jackson has catapulted himself into the top-tier of MVP candidates (more later). The Rams welcome the Ravens to the LA Coliseum with a 6-4 record. They are badly in need of a win, as they are 'stuck' in the same division as the 10-1 49ers and 9-2 Seahawks. The Rams won the NFC West in both 2017 and 2018 (on their way to a Super Bowl berth) but they haven't looked like the same team here in 2019.

Jackson has "the whole league talking about" his recent efforts. He ripped apart the NFL's stingiest defense with his arm and legs, accounting for three TDs and directing a dominant running game in a 37-20 victory on SNF over the Pats in Week 9. He's coming off a four-TD performance in Baltimore's 41-7 rout of Houston last Sunday, becoming the first NFL quarterback to produce at least 2,000 yards passing (2,258 with a 19-5 ratio) and 700 yards rushing (781 on 6.7 YPA with six TDs) through the first 10 games of a season. RB Mark Ingram (667 yards on 4.9 YPA and a team-high eight rushing TDs) joins Jackson to give Baltimore the NFL's best rushing attack (203.1 YPG on 5.7 YPA). The Baltimore D is not the vintage defense of the 'Ray Lewis era" but allowing 19.6 PPG works just fine when the offense is averaging an NFL-high 34.1 PPG!

The Rams were the NFC's highest scoring team in 2018, averaging 32.9 PPG (only KC scored more in the AFC). However, the Rams enter Monday night  having failed to score at least 20 points in back-to-back games for the first time under head coach Sean McVay. After following his breakout year of 2017 (28-7 ratio with a 100.5 QB rating), Jared Goff threw 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (101.0 rating) in leading the Rams into the Super Bowl in 2018. However, through 10 games this season, he's got an 11-10 ratio and a QB rating of 82.1. His production is off due to nagging injuries to WRs Woods (86 catches in 2018) and Cooks (89 catches), who have just 45 (in nine games) and 27 (in eight games), this season. It also hasn't helped that RB Gurley (525 yards with 7 TDs and 18 catches for one TD) is FAR from the player he  was in 2018 (1,251 yards on 4.9 YPA and 17 TDs / 59 catches for 4 TDs). The good news is, both Robert Woods (personal) and Brandin Cooks (concussion) are expected back for this contest. LA's defense has improved this season (allowed 24.0 PPG in 2018 but ranks 11th in allowing 19.6 PPG in 2019) and DT Aaron Donald was named the NFC Defensive Player of the Week after registering two sacks, four QB hits and a pass deflection in the Rams' 17-7 victory over Chicago last Sunday night.

Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here by going against the red-hot Ravens but I will take the home dog Rams. This isn't your father's NFC West (remember 2010 when Seattle won the division with a 7-9 record?). The Rams' only path into the 2019 postseason is via the wild card. I'm not sure the Rams. chances are very good there either but those chances will all but disapear with a loss here. As Winston Churchill once opined, "If not now, when? If not us, who?" That's LA's mentality coming into this contest and Monday night home dogs have always held a special place with long-time handicappers/bettors.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The 8-2 Green Bay Packers visit the 9-1 San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, with the Packers atop the NFC North and the 49ers leading the NFC West. However, both teams face stiff challenges from division rivals. The Packers look over their shoulder and see the 8-3 Vikings lurking, while the 49ers have the 8-2 Seahawks right on their coattails. This primetime game has major homefield advantage and wild-card positioning at stake. The Packers are coming off a Week 11 bye but are sure to remember their last trip to the West Coast, a 26-11 Week 9 loss at the LA Chargers, as a four-point road favorite. As for the 49ers, they welcome the Packers to Lev's Stadium off three straight games against NFC West rivals, beating Arizona twice, 28-25 and 36-26, sandwiched around a 27-24 loss in OT to the Seahawks (MNF classic).

Aaron Rodgers is completing 64.8% for 2,718 yards (he owns two, 400-yard passing games) with a superb ratio of 17 TD passes against only two INTs. Rodgers no longer enjoys an elite receiving corps but RB Aaron Jones has had a 'breakout year." He is tied for the NFL lead with 14 TDs (11 rushing, three receiving) and has 943 scrimmage yards (589 rushing, 354 receiving). WR Davant Adams (39 catches in six games) is still dealing with a toe injury but he's had a week off and has played in Green Bay's last two games, catching SEVEN balls in each contest. The Green Bay defense ranks 28th in yards allowed (384.7 per) but 14th in points allowed, at a more modest 20.5 PPG. The key being, the  team's plus-9 turnover margin (16 takeaways against just seven giveaways).

San Francisco's lone blemish in 2019 has been that MNF loss to Seattle, a game the 49ers could have easily won. San Francisco's offense has been led by the steady, if unspectacular play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (68.8% for 2,478 yards with 18 TDs and 10 INTs), plus the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack (149.0 YPG). The good news is that star TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) returned to practice Thursday and the 49ers are hopeful he will available after missing the past two games with knee and ankle injuries. The San Francisco offense is not viewed as prolific but it does rank second in scoring at 29.5 PPG. San Francisco's D ranks second to only New England's in points allowed (15.5 PPG) and yards allowed (253.0 YPG). The 49ers lead the NFL with 39 sacks, as DEs Arik Armstead (eight) and Nick Bosa (seven) lead the charge.

Let me "take apart" what I just noted about the 49ers. I've always maintained that Garoppolo's gaudy W-L record as a starting QB (17-3, including 2-0 with the Pats) conceals the fact that he's not much better than an average QB. Note that EIGHT of his 18 TD passes have come in two games against the Cardinals (over a three-game span), who rank 32nd in passing yards allowed in 2019. Now, let's take a closer look at that SF running game over that recent three-game span. The Niners relied heavily on their running game in averaging 181.1 YPG through the first seven contests but with nagging injuries to both Breida and Mostert, that aspect of the offense has gone missing the past three weeks. San Francisco has been held to 74.0 YPG (third-worst in the NFL during that span), averaging 2.9 YPA. Moving on to San Francisco's D, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. San Francisco has allowed 25, 27 and 26 points its last three contests, beginning with the game in which Alexander got hurt in.

This game against the Packers begins a grueling three-game stretch for the Niners. San Francisco follows this with two more against teams currently in first place with trips to Baltimore (8-2) and New Orleans (8-2). If the Ravens and Saints don't lose before facing San Francisco, the 49ers will be the first team in the Super Bowl era to play three consecutive games this late in the season against teams with a winning percentage of at least .800, according to ESPN. The 49ers' season could turn 'sour,' VERY quickly. 'Forgiving' the Packers their Week 9 loss at the Chargers (it was a non-conference road game, which does not factor into tie-breakers in the NFC standings), the Packers have won 10-3 at Chicago, 34-24 at Dallas (led 28-0) and 31-24 at KC. Any points here are a bonus, as I expect the Packers to win, outright!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The Patriots were held to 17 points at Philadelphia last Sunday but despite Tom Brady's admitted "frustration" with his team's offense, the Patriots won 17-10 and at 9-1, own the best record in the AFC. The win helped New England's opponent this Sunday, as the Eagles fell to 5-5, meaning that the Cowboys' 35-27 win at Detroit allowed 6-4 Dallqa to assume sole possession of first place in the NFC East.As Brady put it, "I came out of the womb as a Niner fan, so I've really not liked the Cowboys ever since." It's been more than 20 years since "the triplets" of Aikman, Irvin and Smith helped propel the Cowboys to their most recent Super Bowl win and since he entered the league in 2000, Brady has taken out his childhood frustrations on them, winning each of his four meetings against them as the Patriots' starting QB.

Dallas ranks first in the league averaging 446.0 YPG and is averaging 28.6 PPG (4th). QB Dak Prescott has been terrific, completing 67.7% for 3,221 yards (Dallas is No. 1 in passing yards) with 21 TDs and nine INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. WR Amari Cooper (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) has been very good plus fellow WRs Gallup (42 / 16.1 YPC) and Cobb (35 catches / 14.1 YPC), not to mention ageless TE Whitten (41 catches), provide Prescott with plenty of options. RB Elliott has 833 yards (4.3 YPA and 7 TDs). Defensively, Dallas ranks 7th in both points allowed (19.7 per) and total D (322.1 YPG).

Brady is having a sub-par season by his standards (63.7% with 14 TDs and 5 INTs for a 90.1 QB rating) and a mediocre receiving corps plus a poor running game (Pats average just 91.0 YPG to rank 24th), sure don't make his job easier. Leading rusher Michel has a modest 515 yards and is averaging only 3.3 YPA. However, somehow, the Pats rank third in the NFL by averaging 28.7 PPG. Leading the way all season has been New England's defense, which ranks 1st in points allowed (10.8 PPG) and 1st in total D (249.9 YPG). The Patriots have given up only NINE total TDs on defense in 2019, FOUR of which came in their 37-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 9. New England has yet to allow a red-zone TD at home this season and own an NFL-best 28 takeaways (its 37 sacks rank third).

Here's the key. Just how good are the Cowboys? The team's six wins have come over the Giants (two), Redskins, Dolphins, Eagles and Lions. NONE of those teams currently own a winning record. The Eagles are 5-5 but the Lions are 3-6-1, the Giants and Dolphins are both 2-8 plus the Redskins are 1-9. Are you kidding me? The four losses have come against the 8-2 Packers and Saints, the 7-3 Vikings and even the 3-7 Jets. New England has won 17 in a row at home and a victory Sunday would give them 17 straight 10-win seasons, breaking an NFL record shared with San Francisco. More notably, the Pats enter this game on a 16-4 ATS run at Gillette Stadium (that's 80%!).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Year is on Jax/Ten Over at 4:05 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland (SI's "cover team") in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. The Titans welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars to Nashville on Sunday, looking for a FOURTH win in five games (details to come). The Jags opened the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but then would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles and played reasonably well (61.2% for 2,285 yards with 13 Tds and four INTs) but Foles returned to field last Sunday. The Jags were routed 33-13 by the Colts, although Foles completed 33 of 47 for 296 yards with two TDs and one INT.

The 4-6 Jags defeated the Titans 20-7 at home back in Week 3. Minshew played well with two TDs and zero INTs (a modest 204 passing yards) but it was Jacksonville's defense which played the starring role, sacking Mariota NINE times. Foles is back but the Jags can't ignore their running game like vs the Colts (29 yards on nine carries!), as when used, Fournette is a quality multi-purpose player. He's rushed for 854 yards (4.7 YPA) and has 47 catches! WR Chark is having an excellent season with 51 receptions, averaging 15.6 YPC plus hauling in eight TDs. The once-proud Jacksonville defense has allowed 59 points in back-to-back losses to Houston and Indy, allowing 216 yards rushing in a 26-3 loss to the Texans and 264 in last week's 33-13 loss to the Colts.

The Titans have an excellent RB in Henry and unlike Fournette (who has just one TD!), Henry has EIGHT rushing TDs (832 yards on 4.4 YPA) plus two TD receptions, despite just 13 catches. Henry is a major contributor (more in a bit) but the insertion of Tannehill at QB is what has sparked the Titans' turnaround. Tannehill was named the starting QB for Week 7.Four games later (Tennessee is 3-1 and averaging 26.3 PPG), Tannehill has led the Titans to the top spot in the league in red zone offense, scoring TDs on all 10 red zone trips. For the season, the Titans have scored TDs on 72% of their red zone trips.In the first six weeks, the offense was settling for FGs when it reached the red zone. In Marcus Mariota's six starts, when Tennessee averaged just 16.3 PPG, the Titans averaged 1.3 TDs in 2.5 red zone visits per game. Mariota's red zone QBR was 17.0, according to ESPN Stats & Information. However, in the past four games under Tannehill, Tennessee has averaged 1.8 TDs in the same amount of visits. Tannehill's red zone QBR is 97.1. Additionally, Tannehill's completion percentage in the red zone is 70.6%, compared to Mariota's 46.2%.

All these above stats have me 'all over' the OVER is this game.I love what Tannehill's been able to do plus getting back to Henry, he ran for a season-best 188 yards in a 35-32 victory over Kansas City on Nov 10, before the Titans had a bye. The team returns to the field refreshed and let me remind all that Henry ran for a career-best 238-yards with four TDs against the Jaguars last December, including a memorable 99-yard TD. Throw in the fact that Foles has a full week of practice behind (expect a good game from him) and this posted total WAAAAY to low!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"

The Broncos looked to be on the verge of a second straight victory last week but then squandering a 20-point lead in a 27-23 loss at Minnesota. WR Courtland Sutton had five catches for 113 yards and added a 38-yard completion.Sutton is working with backup quarterback Brandon Allen (now Denver's starter), who is completing just 49.2 percent of his passes with three TDs and one interception in two starts.The now injured Flacco was a a bust and while RBs Lindsay (651 yards / 4.9 YPA / 6 TDs) and Freeman (405 yards / 4.0 YPA) are both quality backs, Denver ranks just 16th with 113.1 YPG on the ground. Through 10 games, Denver has averaged only 17.2 PPG (27th) on 321.6 YPG (25th). First-year head coach Vic Fangio  was known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos' D is allowing 19.7 PPG (8th) on 310.8 YPG (4th).

Josh Allen is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (23) and 12 rushing TDs (15) in his first two seasons (still has six games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.3% for 2,175 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 331 yards and seven TDs. He was named the AFC's offensive Player of the Week after throwing for 256 yards and three TDs, as well as adding 56 yards and a rushing TD in last week's 37-20 drubbing of the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo's running game is averaging 128.7 YPG (8th) but Buffalo is only scoring 21.1 PPG (20th). However, its defense ranks 3rd in both points allowed (17.0 per) and total D (304.1 YPG).

The criticism of Buffalo is that its seven wins have come against teams entering Week 12 with a combined record of 15-55. The next five opponents are 31-19, and include three division leaders; Dallas (6-4), Baltimore (8-2) and New England (9-1). Fair enough but don't the 3-7 Broncos fall right into Buffalo's 'wheelhouse' of losing teams? Inept quarterbacking gets most of the attention but there are reports of internal strife caused by gruff first-year head coach Vic Fangio. Team Chemistry can’t be too good, after the Broncos ended a consecutive game streak of 99 contests in which a team ahead by at least 20 points at the half, didn't win! VERY fair price on the Bills in this one. Denver is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019 (lone win at the Chargers, who have NO home field edge), extending the team's road woes to 5-16 SU the last two-plus seasons.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET.

California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West.

Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). 

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.

USC earned back-to-back road wins at Arizona State and Cal and moved into the College Football Playoff rankings for the the first time this season at No. 23. The Trojans are 7-4 overall and at 6-2 in the Pac-12 South, they are just a half-game back of Utah, which has two games left. USC only has this game with UCLA remaining, so a win would leave USC at 7-2 in conference play. That means Utah would need to win its last two games (Utes will be huge a favorite in both), because USC's 30-23 over Utah gives the Trojans the tie-breaker.All that said, Clay Helton's future as USC head coach is anything but settled (rumors of a possible Urban Meyer or James Franklin hiring are swirling).

UCLA visits the LA Coliseum 4-6 (4-3 Pac-12) and would need to win here and at home to Cal next weekend just to become bowl-eligible. UCLA was on a 4-2 SU (4-1-1 ATS) run after an 0-3 SU & ATS start to 2019 but last Saturday in Salt Lake City, got steamrolled 49-3 loss by Utah. After a 3-9 (3-6 Pac-12) record in his first season at Westwood, Chip Kelly would be hailed as a hero with closing wins over crosstown rival USC and a home win over Cal.

The Bruins have won FOUR of the last seven meetings with the Trojans, including a 34-27 victory last season at the Rose Bowl when Joshua Kelley ran for a series-record 289 yards. Kelley currently ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing behind Utah's Zach Moss, who holds an average-per-game lead of 106.1 to 104.3. Kelley has 939 rushing yards (4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and is trying to become the first Bruin since Paul Perkins in 2014 to lead the Pac-12 in rushing. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has had an erratic season but it's hard NOT to remember him passing for five TDs and running for two in UCLA's amazing 67-63 comeback win at Wash St back on Sep 21. UCLA's defense is a mess, allowing 33.7 PPG (111th) on 442.0 YPG (105th).

Freshman Kedon Slovis began the season as USC's third-string QB but due to injuries, he's played most of the season and has put up impressive numbers. He turned in his third 400-yard passing game of the season in last week's 41-17 win at Cal, completing 29-of-35 passes for 406 yards, four TDs and no interceptions against a Bears defense that had allowed just nine passing scores all season. He's completing 70.8% with 24 TDs and just nine INTs. on the season. He has three "big-time" WRs, who have all caught 60-plus passes for a combined 20 TD receptions. The best of the group is Michael Pittman Jr, who has 82 catches and nine TDs. However, for a school once called "Running Back U," USC is averaging 126.1 YPG rushing (111th), on 4.1 YPA. The USC defense is at best average, allowing 27.1 PPG (64th) on 403.9 YPG (70th).

Embattled head coach Clay Helton has plenty of motivation here but rumors seem to point to the fact that he's "OUT" at the the end of the season, no matter what. I expect expect UCLA to "play hard" against this hateful crosstown rival and noting that Clay Helton is only 5-10 ATS his last 15 as a home favorite, has me taking about two TDs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. The 2019 Bears survived four "close calls' to open 9-0 and appeared well on their way to win No. 10 and sole possession of first place in the Big 12 but somehow blew a 25-point lead in a stunning 34-31 loss to Oklahoma last Saturday. Baylor must regroup and resume its pursuit for a Big 12 title and a spot in the conference title game. The Bears need one win in their final two games to play for the league championship and they can clinch that spot by beating visiting Texas on Saturday afternoon.

Texas opened 10th in the AP's preseason poll but lost its second game 45-38 to then-No. 6 LSU. The Longhorns won three straight after that but then lost their annual game with then-No. 6 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, 34-27. A two-point win over Kansas was followed by a 37-27 loss at TCU. However, Texas eked out a 27-24 home win on Nov 9 against then-No. 16 Kansas St, getting Texas back in the polls (19th in the CFP rankings). However, Texas lost another "close one" last Saturday at Iowa St, losing 23-21 on a last-second FG. The Longhorns are now 6-4 (4-3 in the Big 12) and only hold a faint chance of reaching the league title game.

QB Sam Ehlinger rallied the Longhorns with a pair of TD passes in the fourth quarter last week and broke the school single-season record held by Colt McCoy with his sixth game with at least three TD passes. Ehlinger has 27 TDs and just eight INTs on the season, with WR Devin Duvernay hauling in eight TDs (87 catches). The problem for Texas against Iowa St was that the team ran for just 54 yards (Texas is averaging a modest 161.9 YPG which ranks 68th). Defensively, Texas has struggled all season, allowing 29.9 PPG (84th) on 449.4 YPG (110th).

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer ran for two TDs and threw for two, as the Bears opened up a 31-10 halftime lead over Oklahoma, but Baylor did not score in the second half, and ran only 15 plays on its last four possessions. Brewer has completed 66.8% for 2,532 yards with 18 TDs and just five INTs on the season. RBs Lovett and Hasty each have just over 500 yards, as Baylor averages 180.7 YPG on the ground (45th). WR Mims is Baylor's most dangerous pass-catcher with 50 catches on 15.3 YPC for 10TDs. Baylor is averaging 34.9 PPG (26th) and allowing 20.5 PPG (24th)

Baylor is the better team but I'm not buying Matt Rhule saying, "Our team learned a lot from that game," after the game. "They learned, No. 1, what we can be - for the first half we looked like not just a top-10, but a top-five team in the country. Then, secondly, the second half showed us what we still have to do." Texas has won FOUR straight against Baylor and eight of 11 at Baylor since the schools joined the Big 12. Throw in that Tom Herman is now 15-4 ATS as an underdog with Houston and Texas and I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET.

My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.

UCF totaled just one loss in 2017 and 2018 (none in AAC play) but the 2019 season has not unfolded the way the Knights had hoped. First came last-second l35-34 loss at Pitt on Sep 21, which ended UCF's 27-game regular season winning streak, followed by a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati on Oct 4, which ended the school's 19-game AAC winning streak. UCF fell for a THIRD time in 2019 when it went scoreless in the fourth quarter and gave up the lead in a 34-31 setback at Tulsa last week (note" Tulsa entered the game 2-7 on the season). The Knights will try to bounce back from that loss when they visit Tulane on Saturday. The Green Wave let a promising start to the 2019 season (Tulane opened 5-1) and a chance at a spot in the AAC championship slip away with losses in THREE of their last four games, after losing 29-21 at Temple last Saturday.

Freshman QB Gabriel is completing 60.6% for 2,806 yards for UCF, throwing 24 TDs against just seven INTs. WRs Davis (59 catches / 18.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and Nixon (41 catches / 17.2 YPC / 7 TDs) have each had excellent seasons. Four RBs have gained between 401 and 609 rushing yards for the Knights, as UCF averages 220.2 YPG (19th) on 5.1 YPA. UCF's defense has allowed a modest 23.6 PPG (41st) on 348.6 YPG (34th) but I'll look a little closer, in a bit.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! As noted, after a 5-1 start, a second straight winning season looked like a sure thing. However, Tulane is 6-4 entering this contest and after hosting UCF (Tulane is a home dog), the Green Wave will have to visit SMU (Mustangs are currently 9-1 and sit 21st in the AP poll and 25th in the CFP rankings). QB Justin McMillan is a true dual-threat, passing for 1,806 yards (13 TDs) and rushing for 552 yards (12 TDs). However,he was awful in last Saturday's loss at Temple, completing just 11-of-27 passes for 103 yards. McMillan is Tulane's leading rusher but five RBs have gained between 221 and 459 yards, allowing Tulane to rush for 255.4 YPG (11th) on 5.6 YPA. Tulane is averaging 34.9 PPG (27th) and allowing 25.8 PPG (55th)

Getting back to UCF, the Knights are averaging 44.8 PPG (7th) but the defense has struggled badly in each of its losses. UCF has allowed an average of 32.0 PPG in those losses. Tulane already has six wins (bowl eligible) but still needs one more 'W" to insure a winning regular season. Tulane sure won't want to have to win at SMU on Nov 30, so that makes this game a little more important. Yes, UCF is having a 'down year' at 7-3 but a win over the Knights would mean a great deal to the Green Wave program. What's more, Tulane is a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS at home in 2019 (outscoring opponents on average, 45.0-to-16.8 PPG), and a victory on Saturday would give Tulane an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1998! I want the points with his very 'live' home 'dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET.

Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak.

Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th).

There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th).

The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West for the second straight year in 2018 and went on to play New England in the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears rode the NFL's best defense (in terms of points allowed) in 2018 to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Both teams entered 2019 with expectations that they would defend their respective division titles. However, as the Bears come to LA Memorial Coliseum to take on the Rams in Week 11, they sit at 4-5 in their division, well behind 8-2 Green Bay and 7-3 Minnesota. As for the 5-4 Rams, they are looking up at 8-1 San Francisco and 8-2 Seattle in the NFC West.

There is NOTHING wrong with Chicago's defense, as the Bears are allowing 17.4 PPG (4th), which is actually slightly better than the team's NFL-leading 17.7 average in 2018. However, Chicago's QB play has generally stunk (that's a highly technical NFL insider term!) and its running game also sucks (another highly sophisticated one). Trubisky is coming off a three-TD game in last week's 20-13 win over Detroit (one which snapped a four-game losing streak) but he has just eight TD passes in his eight games (he's missed two due to injury). A closer look reveals he has not thrown a TD pass in FIVE of his eight starts in 2019, accounting for his eight TD throws in last week's game with Detroit, a two-TD effort in a Week 7 loss at New Orleans and a three-TD game in the team's MNF Week 3 win at Washington. As for the running game, the Bears are averaging 80.6 YPG (28th) on a woeful 3.5 YPA. What's more, just as rookie David Montgomery appeared to have found his stride by rolling up 235 yards and three TDs over his last three games, after totaling 231 and two TDs in his previous six, an ankle injury in practice is raising doubts about his availability for this contest. If Monty doesn't play, here's the situation. No other Chicago player has as much as 100 rushing yards on the season.

Sean McVay has been labeled a "boy genius" for leading the Rams to back-to-back division crowns in his first two seasons at the helm, which included a Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. However, the Rams' once-high octane offense has gone missing since prior to last season's Super Bowl appearance, with QB Jared Goff taking large steps backward behind an offensive line that has been ravaged by injury. McVay himself realizes there's a strong argument to be made that the Bears ended the Rams' two seasons of offensive brilliance with their 15-6 victory at Soldier Field last season in Week 14. LA was 11-1 but Chicago reduced McVay's offense to a shadow of its usual self. RB Todd Gurley produced only 28 yards rushing, Goff went 20 of 44 for 180 yards, and the Rams managed only 214 yards, less than half of their season average. The current Rams' offense continues to be a shadow of its former self, averaging 25.1 PPG (10th) on 375.8 YPF (12th), after an inept performance at Pittsburgh last Sunday in which it scored only THREE of the team's 12 points.

OK, so why am I on the Rams? I go back to those technical terms regarding Trubisky (he stinks) and the state of Chicago's running game (it sucks). Chicago dominated the Rams in that Week 14 contest in Chicago, benefiting from the weather conditions of a chilly, biting night last December. The weather report for Sunday is sunny and in the mid-80s and don't forget that this is a 5:20 local time start (FB conditions will be perfect). This is a make-or-break game for LA, as while it plays Arizona twice in its final six games after this one, it also faces Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco. A loss here and LA can basically 'cancel' the rest of the 2019 season. Expect the Rams to 'show some life' against a VERY mediocre (I'm being nice here) Chicago team. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively.

My 10* Total of the Week is on Arz/SF Over at 4:05 ET.

San Francisco entered last Monday night's game as the NFL's lone unbeaten but fell 27-24 (OT) in one of 2019's most exciting games. The 49ers look to rebound from that loss when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. The two NFC West rivals will be meeting for teh second time in three weeks, as the 49ers won 28-25 at Phoenix in a Week 9 Thursday game on Halloween. It may come as a surprise to many that Arizona had beaten the 49ers EIGHT straight times,prior to taht contest.

Arizona's 1st-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury’ saw his team open 0-3-1 in 2019 but the Cards rattled off three consecutive victories in Weeks 5 through 7. However, to be fair, those three wins came over the Bengals, Falcons and Giants (that trio is a combined 4-24). The Cards have followed their three-game winning streak by losing 31-9 at New Orleans, 28-25 at home to San Francisco and 30-27 at New Orleans. Kyler Murray (last year's No. 1 pick) has lived up to expectations, completing 63.9% for an average of 290.4 YPG through the air. He has 12 TD passes and just five INTs in 360 attempts (great stat for a rookie!). He also leads the team in rushing, gaining 351 yards on 5.9 YPA. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald leads the team with 50 receptions for 556 yards despite slowing down, while second-year WR Christian Kirk is on the rise, after catching six passes for career-highs of 138 yards and three TDs in last week's loss to Tampa Bay (he's missed three games but has 40 catches and counting). On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona has struggled most of the season, allowing 28.1 PPG (27th) on 412.5 YPG (31st).

The 49ers were overdue to lose but now the test is to bounce back. Jimmy Garoppolo's stats do NOT match Murray's as he's averaging 231.9 YPG passing (Murray averages 60 more YPG) and his ratio of 14-8 is surely no better than Murray's 12-5. Let's not even mention that Garoppolo has 33 rushing yards to Murray's 351 (OK, I did!). Of course, Garoppolo 'hangs his hat' on his 14-3 record as a starting QB (as well he should). A cause for concern is TE George Kittle (46 receptions, 541 yards) could miss his second straight game with knee and ankle injuries, while WR Emmanuel Sanders (13 for 161, two TDs in three games with the team) will be a game-time decision after suffering a rib injury during Monday's loss. The 49ers are averaging 161.8 YPG on the ground (2nd) but were held to just 87 yards by Seattle (3.2 YPC). However, it's hard to imagine San Francisco NOT running the ball well against the Cards. Despite Monday's loss, the 49ers still come in allowing just 14.6 PPG on 251.6 YPG, ranking second in the league in both categories.

What to expect? The San Francisco D is terrific but as I noted in taking Seattle Nov Game of the Month) last Monday, the 49ers suffered a big loss when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle in Week 9. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense (note: San Francisco has allowed 52 points its last two games). I noted above that Garoppolo stats don't quite measure up to his gaudy W/L record as a starter but I won't ignore that he had no problem against this Arizona defense just 18 days ago, ripping them for 317 yards and four TD passes (all by the end of the start of the 4Q). I noted Arizona's sad-sack defense numbers already but will add that in losing THREE in a row, the Cards have allowed 31, 28 and 30 points. I see little reason why the 49ers won;t score easily on Arizona here (30-plus points) but will add that the Cards never gave up in that Week 9 loss to San Francisco, scoring 11 points in the 4th quarter to earn the 'back door' cover. I will not be taking the points in this one but I will go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

Lamar Jackson has long ago quieted any naysayers, as he continues to make NFL history. His Ravens handed New England its first loss of the 2019 season in Week 9 (convincing 37-20 victory) and then in a possible "let down" situation in Week 10, led Baltimore to its SIXTH straight win. The Ravens CRUSHED the Bengals 49-13 last Sunday, with Jackson completing 15-of-17 passes for 223 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 67 yards rushing (on just seven carries) with one TD. He posted a perfect QB rating of 158.3, joining Ben Roethlisberger as the only players in NFL history to have two perfect passer ratings in the same season (Big Ben did it in 2007). The 7-2 Ravens will welcome the 6-3 Houston Texans to Baltimore on Sunday. The Texans are coming off their bye week and enter the game winners of FOUR of their last five. Houston leads the AFC South (Indy is 5-4, Tenn 5-5 and Jax 4-5), as it begins a three-game stretch against the Ravens, Colts and Patriots.

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7.

Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history.

Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th).

Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against."

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State.

Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs).

The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st).

Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET.

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch).

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF.

Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards.

A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th).

Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start.

The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st).

Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions.

I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET.

The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season.

Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019.

Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th).

Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th).

The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Nov Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET.

Who'da thunk it? Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but here in 2019, when the Ravens knocked off the Pats in Week 9's SNF game, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team. The 49ers have some extra rest (played the Thursday night game in Week 9) and they'll need every edge they can get, as Russell Wilson (leading MVPcandidiate?) leads the Seattle Seahawks into Levi's Stadium. Seattle is 7-2 and win would leave them just a half-game back of San Francisco in the NFC West. This once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade but with the departure of Harbaugh, most of the steam came out of the rivalry. In fact, this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014, where both teams have a winning record.

No QB is playing better than Russell Wilson, who has a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a passer rating of 102 or higher in eight of nine games. He's completing 68.3% for 2,505 yards and his QB rating of 118.2 is tops in the league. Tyler Lockett (team-high 59 catches and six TDs) has developed into Wilson's top target but note that rookie DK Metcalf is a star in the making, with 29 catches (18.1 YPC) with five TDs. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but the team checks in averaging 131.7 YPG on the ground this season (7th). However, RB Carson is coming on strong. After totaling only 158 yards in Seattle's first three games, he's had 100-plus in FOUR of his last six (764 yards on the season). Seattle is a legitimate NFC title contender but its "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past, as the Seahawks are allowing 25.6 PPG (22nd) on 380.8 YPG (25th).

While QB Jimmy Garoppolo takes up a lot of 'oxygen' (more in a bit), one HAS to start with San Francisco's defense. The 49ers rank first in total D (24.10 YPG) and second in scoring D (12.8 PPG). However, the 49ers suffered a big loss last week when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. "Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him," starting MLB Fred Warner said. "He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart." Getting back to Garoppolo, he threw for a personal-best four TDs and eclipsed 300 yards (317) for the third time in his career in San Francisco's 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct 31. He's completing 70.3% of his passes but even with that four-TD effort, his ratio on the season is 13-7 (not 22-1 like Wilson). Garoppolo's 'LEGEND' is based on his record as a starter (16-2, including 14-2 with the 49ers). He's greatly helped by the NFL's second-best rushing attack (171.1 YPG), led by Matt Beida (524 yards on 5.3 YPA) plus supported by Coleman (355) and Mostert (307).

Seattle had won 10 straight in the series before a 26-23 (OT) loss at Levi’s in Week 15 of 2018. However, as noted above, San Francisco was in a "rebuilding mode" in that stretch. What has me 'loving' Seattle is this spot is Seattle going 4-0 SU on the road in 2019 and covering SIX in a row as an underdog going back to early in the 2018 season. I called Baltimore's upset in Week 9 over the Pats and predict it will be "deja vu all over again" here in Week 10, with Seattle handing San Francisco its first loss of 2019.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). However, the Vikings lost a close one last Sunday at KC 26-23, despite the Chiefs playing without Pat Mahomes.

The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG but the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest and after a bye week, a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants in a MNF Week 9 contest. The Cowboys now play a THIRD straight primetime game, as they welcome the Vikings to Arlington on Sunday night in Week 10.

The Vikings got a nice break last week when the Chargers upset the Packers, so Minnesota remains just one game back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. He's completing 68.8% for 2,217 yards with 16 TDs and three INTs on the season (112.0 QB rating) but while hew threw fthree TDs last Sunday, he has still not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He fell to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two FGs in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Some bad news comes in the fact that WR Adam Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and will not play. RB Dalvin Cook has run for an NFL-leading 894 yards (5.1 YPA / 9 TDs) and may get more work. Minnesota's D has been very good, allowing 17.6 PPG (4th) on 320.9 YPG (8th).

Dak Prescott is having an excellent season, averaging 297.5 YPG passing and completing 69.6 percent of his passes (both would be career highs). He leads an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 YPG, although Dallas is averaging 28.4 PPG (just 5th-best). WR Amari Cooper (42 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. We can also expect Dallas to lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott (741 yards on 4.7 YPA with six TDs), as he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys' D hasn't gotten enough credit, as it is allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 318.1 YPG (6th).

Here's the bottom line. Minnesota fell back into some bad habits at KC, as Kirk Cousins was again subject to the sort of pressure that often gets him rattled. The Vikings rarely played from behind their four-game winning streak but Cousins is now 0-10-1 SU in his career with Minnesota when trailing in the fourth quarter. Adding 'insult to injury,' Minnesota enters this contest winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record. One more thing, Prescott, is 4-0 head-to-head against Cousins!

Good luck..Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens have been the 'kings' of the preseason (have won 17 straight!) but since winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Baltimore has missed the playoffs in FOUR of the last six seasons. However, the 2019 Ravens are winners of FOUR in a row, after handing the Patriots their first loss of the season last Sunday night. Baltimore's convincing 37-20 victory over the Patriots leaves them 6-2 in the AFC North but more importantly, the victory could be the kind of signature win to propel the team to greater heights. Baltimore heads to Cincinnati this Sunday to take on the 0-8 Bengals, the NFL's only remaining winless team. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and decided to pull the plug on longtime starting QB Andy Dalton. Fourth-round draft choice Ryan Finley (NC St) will be making his first NFL start.

Many teams questioned whether Heisman-winner Lama Jackson had "the goods" to become an NFL starter but few (if any) have ny doubts now. Jackson has turned the Ravens into an offensive juggernaut that leads the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. Baltimore is also first in rushing with 204.9 YPG (5.5 YPA) and second in total offense (427.0 YPG). Jackson is completing 64.3% for 1,813 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs, plus leads the team with 637 rushing yards (6.4 YPA and 5 TDs). Another former Heisman-winner, RB Mark Ingram, has 585 rushing yards, while averaging 5.1 YPA and leads the team with seven rushing TDs. Baltimore's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era but with its "new and improved" offense, allowing 22.0 PPG (16th) on 348.8 YPG (15th) is good enough.

The Bengals out-played the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle (429 yards to 232) but lost 21-20. It's been all downhill since, as the Bengals have gone 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS and now will turn the starting QB duties over to Finley, who has never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. Cincinnati's offense ranks 29th in scoring (15.5 PPG) and 25th in total offense (317.9 YPG) plus the team's turnover margin of minus-9 isn't helping a defense ranks last in yardage allowed (435.8 YPG) and 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). The good news? How can it get worse? No Dalton at QB just may be a good thing. "I think I'm ready for it," Finley told reporters. "I'm confident in my ability to play, and I'm confident in this team's ability to bounce back and get some wins."

So why play Cincy? Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its nine division games since the beginning of last season (that's an 89% "go-against) and believe it or not, Cincinnati has won SIX of the last seven times it has hosted Baltimore. Baltimore is 'ripe' for a letdown after its Sunday night domination of the Pats and enters this game on an abysmal 2-12 ATS run when favored (an 86% "go-against), going back to Week 7 of last season..

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 10 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Buf/Cle Over at 1:00 ET.

It would hardly be a stretch to say that stretch the 6-2 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 2-6 Cleveland Browns have been among the biggest disappointments.However, one could take the position that the Bills have taken advantage of a 'soft' schedule, as their SIX wins have come over teams with a 9-42 (.214) combined record. Then again, 6-2 is 6-2 and Buffalo currently down the No. 5 seed in the AFC. As for Cleveland, the Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season has passed its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-6, after losing their FOURTH consecutive game 24-19 at New England last Sunday.

Josh Allen was drafted six spots behind Mayfield, despite concerns that he was not NFL-ready due to facing suspect competition at Wyoming. However, he is the just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs and 12 rushing TDs in his first two seasons (still has eight games remaining in 2019). Allen is completing 60.9% for 1,653 yards with 10 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 247 yards and four TDs, The running game is averaging 129.4 YPG (11th), led by veteran Frank Gore (3437 yards on 4.1 YPA). Devin Singletary has endured an injury-plagued rookie campaign but he ran for a season-high 95 yards and a TD last week and has 267 yards on the season, averaging a whopping 6.7 YPA. The key for Buffalo is a defense that ranks 3rd in both scoring D (16.4 PPG) and total D (296.2 YPG).

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 58.7 percent with 7 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 71.3. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (803 yards on 5.2 YPA) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play (each have just one TD catch!). The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.6 PPG (23rd).

A case can be made that Cleveland was at its worst last Sunday, as the the Browns were unable to beat a Denver team starting a QB (Brandon Allen) who hadn’t taken a regular-season snap! Rumors abound with stories of a fractured clubhouse, as rookie head coach Freddie Kitchens is already on the 'hot seat' (welcome to Cleveland). "Super Bowl or Bust" was the Browns’ motto entering this season and the 2019 are all but guaranteed to be a BUST. Bad teams don't execute consistently, have zero attention to detail, commit way too many penalties and get poor QB play. Don't the Browns check all those boxes? In stark comparison (putting aside the issue of a weak schedule), Buffalo has been the antithesis of Cleveland, succeeding without hype. QB Josh Allen has mostly avoided mistakes plus Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott seems 'light years' ahead of over-matched first-year head man Freddie Kitchens(will there be a second year?). A couple of things to 'chew on.' Cleveland ranks 25th in the league in red-zone offense (46.2 percent), while Buffalo ranks first (71.4). Buffalo is 3-0 on the road, while Cleveland has lost all three games at home.

OK, I am NOT about to take the Browns but don't they have to be 'juiced' playing just their second game in Cleveland since Week 3. Buffalo does not have a prolific offense but scoring against the Browns has come fairly easy for most opponents. Yes, Buffalo has a terrific D but the Browns have to believe that if they are to have a chance to win, they will HAVE to find a way into the end zone. The low Over/Under number makes this a game that's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET.

The 3-4-1 Detroit Lions and the 3-5 Chicago Bears meet Sunday at Soldier Field and while neither team looks "playoff-bound" (or playoff-worthy), the loser of this contest can pretty much start preparing for the 2020 draft and season. The Lions lost 31-24 at Oakland last Sunday, falling to 1-4 in their last five games. QB Matthew Stafford passed for 406 yards and three TDs but failed to connect on a fourth-down attempt in the waning moments. As for the Bears, they went three-and-out on their first five possessions and managed a meager nine total yards of offense in the first half at Philly, falling behind 19-0 in a 22-14 loss, the team's FOURTH in a row.

My 10* Total of the Month is on Nevada/SD State Over at 10:30 ET.

Rocky Long played QB for New Mexico and returned to his alma mater as its head coach in 1998. He led the Lobos to just the school's second bowl appearance since 1961 in 2002, the first of FIVE bowls bids in seven years. He quit as head coach after the 2008 season but resurfaced at SD St in 2011 and has led the Aztecs to EIGHT consecutive bowls. At 7-1 (4-1 in the MWC's West Division), the 24th-ranked Aztecs will be 'bowling' for the NINTH straight season. Nevada's Mike Norvell is in just his third season with Nevada but after a 3-9 first year in 2017, led the Wolf Pack to an 8-5 record last season, including an Arizona Bowl win. Nevada checks in at 5-4 in 2019 with three games remaining, needing ONE win to be bowl-eligible once again.

The Wolf Pack snapped a two-game slide with a 21-10 victory over New Mexico last week behind freshman QB Carson Strong's solid effort. Strong won the starting QB job and played well as Nevada won two of its first three (had 295 and 299 yards passing in the two wins). However, he lost playing time over the next four games to Solano and Henry. However, Strong was back at QB in a 31-3 loss at Wyoming on Oct 26, but threw for 247 yards. He then was very good in Nevada's 21-10 win over New Mexico last Saturday, passing for a season-high 305 yards with two TDs. His return is GOOD NEWS! Still, Nevada's defense is a big concern, allowing 34.6 PPG (116th), including 41.2 PPG on the road.

San Diego State joined the AP top-25 on Sunday. The No. 24 Aztecs have a commanding lead in the MWC West Division (no other team is better than .500) and while the MWC title is the team's main focus, finishing as the top-ranked Group of Five conference team (which would earn a New Year's Six bowl game), wouldn't be 'chopped liver.' Senior QB Ryan Agnew has modest numbers (63.9% for 1,427 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs) but he's 13-2 as a starter. It sure helps that SDSU's defense is one of the nation's best, allowing only 14.1 PPG (8th) on 283.6 YPG (12th).

At first blush one could say 'Under' but be careful. SDSU's offense is averaging only 21.8 PPG but there is little reason to think that the Aztecs WON'T be able to move the ball and score against Nevada's porous defense. The Wolf Pack surely know that their D cannot be expected to do so, meaning Strong and the offense have to realize that any chance of winning 'hangs' on its ability to score. I 'LOVE' going under these sub-40 over/under numbers in CFB and note that the finals scores between these two schools the last three seasons have averaged 59.7 points, about three TDs HIGHER than the over/under number in this contest. Look out below, this one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET.

Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. The Vols opened 1-4 (lone win 45-0 over Chattanooga) but visit long-time rival Kentucky, having gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1. Kentucky comes in off a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26 but enters this contest just 4-4.

The Volunteers have started three QBs but junior Jarrett Guarantano has thrown the majority of the passes (161 of 243) and has 11 of the team's 14 TD passes (against five INTs). A quick check of the numbers reveal taht Tennessee is scoring 24.7 PPG on 349.0 YPG, while allowing 24.1 PPG on 3451.0 YPG (hard to make those almost identical numbers up). The Vols have just three games left and need TWO wins to become bowl-eligible. I've read where some think the Vols are surging but I view the team's recent 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run as nothing more than them taking advantage of some flawed opponents at home and covering a big spread (+34.5) while losing 35-13 at Alabama.

Kentucky knows all about QB merry-go-rounds, as an injury to starter Terry Wilson and ineffective play by Sawyer Smith has forced Stoops to turn to receiver turned quarterback, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden started the year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 348 yards but is now lining up under center. He's completing just 40.5 percent of his passes but has excelled as a runner, highlighted by a 204-yard game in Kentucky's most recent game, a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26. However, Bowden has also made some unique history in two recent games for the Wildcats. Against South Carolina, he joined Arizona State's Kalen Ballage as the only FBS players since 2000 to have at least six rushing attempts, three receptions, three kickoff returns and two pass completions in the same game. A week later against Arkansas, he had at least 20 rush attempts, 10 pass attempts and a punt return in the same game to become the third FBS player since 2000 to do so along with Kent State's Julian Edelman and Indiana's Antwaan Randle-El.

Both schools are two wins shy of bowl eligibility but while Kentucky has four game left, Tennessee only has three and one is at Missouri, where the Tigers are 5-0. Historically, beating the Wildcats has been near-automatic for the Vols, as Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee TWICE since 1984! However, the Vols lost at Kentucky in 2017, for just the second time in 33 years. That said, Kentucky is 4-1 SU at home in 2019 and 5-0 ATS, as the Wildcats covered their lone home loss against Florida, in a 29-21 loss. Revisiting that contest, the Wildcats led 21-10 early in the 4th quarter, before folding. My bet says Kentucky, not Tennessee, is the team surging. The Wildcats win at home vs Missouri began a closing stretch of playing FOUR of their last five games in Lexington, plus the lone road game is against a 2-6 Vandy team. Win here, the Wildcats could finish with EIGHT wins, before heading off to a bowl.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Stanford at 3:00 ET.

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but at 4-4 (3-3 in Pac 12), the Cardinal will need to win TWO of their final four games in 2019 to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season (ninth under Shaw). Colorado has a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker and after a 3-1 start, his Buffs have lost FIVE in a row (Buffs are 3-6 / 1-5 Pac 12).

Stanford comes into this contest off a 41-31 home win over Arizona, a game marked by the return of senior K.J. Costello, who had missed the previous three contests with a thumb injury. Costello showed few signs of any rust, completing 30-of-43 for 312 yards and three TDs. Costello has 'game,' as he showed last season by throwing for 3,540 yards with 29 TDs and just 11 INTs. Against Arizona, he connected with 12 different receivers. Senior RB Cameron Scarlett (700 YR / 4.4 YPA / 5 TDs) provided balance on the ground with 102 yards and two TDs. Stanford's offensive numbers are poor (22.6 PPG on 348.8 YPG) but with Costello back under center, that could (WILL) change.

While Stanford's offense is "on the mend," QB Montez and the Colorado offense has 'gone in the tank,' after a hot start. The Buffs opened 3-1 while averaging 35.8 PPG but Colorado 'limps' into this contest having lost FIVE in row, with the team scoring 14 or less points in THREE of its last four outings. Montez was expected to take a HUGE step forward in 2019 but that hasn't been the case, as he's thrown for a modest 2,242 yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs. However, it's hard to focus too much on Montez, when Colorado's defense has allowed 34.4 PPG (114th) on 480.7 YPG (124th).

Colorado has allowed 30 or more points in all NINE games and has allowed 333.7 YPG passing in its last three. That's "bad news' with Costello back healthy for Stanford. Thd Cardinal will likely finish with their worst record under Shaw but then again, Shaw' has compiled a 25-7 record in the month of November and he's got FOUR of them in 2019. I expect Stanford to finish strong (and extend that bowl streak). The Cardinal "got going" on the final Saturday of October with that win over Arizona (see above) and coming off a bye week, are "rested and ready" to roll over a Colorado team which is stumbling to the finish line. Blowout Alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on TCU at 12:00 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 after surviving a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite. Baylor owns a 10-game winning streak and currently is ranked 11th in the latest AP poll, while opening No. 12 in the first CFP rankings. The Bears head to Forth Worth on Saturday to face the 4-4 TCU Horned Frogs (2-2 in Big 12). TCU beat then-No. 15 Texas 34-27 on Oct 26 but then lost 34-27 at Oklahoma St last Saturday. Head coach Gary Patterson but it well telling reporters last Saturday, "We're just good enough we can beat anybody we got in this league, and we're just good enough we can get beat by anybody in this league." , 

Baylor's latest win was a 17-14 Halloween night victory over West Virginia in which it found a way to eke out a win by fending off the Mountaineers' big plays. Baylor outgained West Virginia 453-219 but lost three fumbles. QB Charlie Brewer is completing 67.6 percent for 2,143 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. FIVE players have over 160 yards rushing, led by Lovett (495 YR / 6.4 YPA) and Hasty (439 RY / 6.3 YPA). Baylor owns a very balanced offense, averaging 280.9 YPG passing and 199.4 YPG rushing, leading to averaging 36.1 PPG (24th). The defense has played well all season, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG (20th) on 341.1 YPG (31st). 

TCU played a bad game at Stillwater last week. The Horned Frogs allowed 223 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher, the most ever by an opponent in coach Gary Patterson's 19-season tenure in Fort Worth. The Frogs also committed four turnovers. QB Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss with a finger injury but Patterson has told reporters he expects Duggan to play. The freshman has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs (three coming vs OSU). Like Baylor, TCU has excellent offensive balance, passing for 221.5 YPG and rushing for 220.2 YPG, while averaging 33.4 PPG (42nd). The defense is allowing a modest 326.2 YPG (25th) but 26.1 PPG (59th). 

Rhule has done a great job at Baylor but the Bears begin a brutal three-game stretch, starting with this game at Fort Worth. Baylor returns home next Saturday to host No. 9 Oklahoma and then travels to Austin to play Texas the following Saturday.  More importantly, how many times can Baylor "pull a rabbit out of its hat?" The Bears edged Iowa St 23-21, needed two OTs to beat Texas Tech (now 3-5) and in its last game, beat West Va (now 3-5) by three points. Even Baylor's 45-27 win over OSU was deceiving. The Bears actually trailed 27-24 in the 4th quarter, before scoring the game's last three TDs. How tough has TCU been at home under Gary Patterson. He took over at TCU full-time in 2001 and since that first season, the Horned Frogs are 89-22 SU at home, including 3-1 in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-22.2 PPG. The Horned Frogs have won FOUR straight over Baylor and ruin the Bears perfect season with a win here. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET.

8-0 Penn St is ranked 5th in the AP poll but entered the first College Football Playoff rankings at fourth, a first-ever for the school. Penn St's last game was an Oct 26 win at Michigan St (28-7), so the Nittany Lions head to Minneapolis with a week of rest. Like Penn St, Minnesota is also 8-0 (both are 5-0 in the Big Ten but Penn St is in the East and Minnesota in the West) and the Golden Gophers are also coming off a bye week. Minnesota routed Maryland 52-10 on Oct 26,  reaching 8-0 for the first time since 1941 (note: Minnesota has not started a season 9-0 in 115 years!).

Penn St is tied with Ohio St in the East and will meet the Buckeyes, who were No. 1 in the 1st CFP rankings, at Columbus on Nov 23. However, that upcoming game with the Buckeyes won't mean as much if the Lions cannot solve the Gophers.Sophomore QB Sean Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (1,931) and TDs (20), while throwing just three INTs. The Penn St running game is nothing special, averaging 172.4 YPG (57th). Freshman Noah Cain leads a fleet of running backs with 350 yards (hardly impressive). However, Penn St is averaging 38.5 PPG (13th) and that's "plenty good enough" with the team's OUTSTANDING defense. Penn St will enter TCF Bank Stadium allowing just 9.6 PPG (2nd) on 280.5 YPG (10th).

Minnesota head coach PF Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 when the Broncos completed an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season, although Penn St will be the first ranked team Minnesota has faced. QB Tanner Morgan has similar numbers to Clifford, completing 65.3% for for 1,761 yards with 18 TDs and four INTs. Minnesota's running game is better than Penn St's, averaging 204.5 YPG (31st), led by senior Rodney Smith (889 YR / 5.8 YPA / 7 TDs), who has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Big Ten games. Minnesota's D is allowing just 283.8 YPG (13th) but has allowed 20.0 PPG, about 10 1/2 points more per game than Penn St.

The QB matchup is 'a push,' but Minnesota has the  best RB in the game (Smith). Take note that Penn St's offense has slowed, averaging under 300 YPG its last three games, while scoring just 24.3 PPG (that's two TDs below its season average). I'm 'rowing the boat' with Fleck by "taking the points" with Minnesota.

Good luck....Larry

My 9* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The 4-5 LA Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders are still both 'alive' for a playoff spot in the AFC but both teams will need to finish strong. The Chargers opened 2-5 but eked out a 17-16 win at Chicago in Week 8 and then played their best game of the year in beating the Packers 26-11 in LA last Sunday (Green Bay entered the game 7-1). The Chargers dominated the first half on both sides of the ball gained 250 yards in the first half, while holding the Packers to just 50 yards. However, LA led just 9-0, before RB Gordon added two rushing TDs and PK Badgley kicked a fourth FG for a 15-point win.

The Raiders went just 4-12 in 2018, in Jon Gruden's 1st year back as the team's head coach. All in all, Oakland has to be happy to be 4-4 midway through its 16-game schedule, as after opening with two home games (a win over Denver and a loss to KC), the Raiders played their next FIVE games away from home (four road games and a contest in London). Oakland's game last Sunday against the Lions was the team's first home game since Sep 15. The Raiders needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off Detroit 31-24 but moved within a game of the sixth and final playoff slot. "I love this place. It's special," QB Derek Carr said of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "To come home in front of them and get a win, especially the way we did it. It would be nice to win something 40-0 some time. But when you win one like this, it does so many good things for a team."

LA fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt following the team's 17-16 victory in Chicago and in last Sunday's win over Green Bay, there was clearly more of an effort to run the ball. Melvin Gordon ran for 80 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler added 70 yards, as the Chargers established a season-high of 159 yards rushing against Green Bay. Rivers threw for 294 yards on a season-low 28 attempts but as noted above, the result was LA's best game of the year. Rivers is averaging 292.6 YPG through the air and is well on his way to another 4,000-yard passing season (his 11th in the L12 years) but he's got a modest 12-7 TD-to-INT ratio. LA's defense has been solid all season, ranking 8th in both points allowed (18.7 per) and total D (322.8 YPG).

Rumors were that Gruden and QB Carr were not quite on the same page but Derek Carr is having an excellent season, completing 71.2% for an average of 251.4 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs (105.1 QB rating). Rookie RB Jacobs (from Alabama) is blossoming into a star, rushing for 740 yards on 4.9 YPA with six TDs. Carr has capable WRs in Williams (23 catches / 15.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Renfro (24 catches / 10.7 YPC / 2 TDs) but his "go-to" guy has been TE Darren Waller, who leads the team with 48 catches and 548 receiving yards. Oakland's D has been a problem, allowing 27.0 PPG (26th) and an NFL-high 299.9 YPG.

Los Angeles has won four in a row in the series (including a pair of double-digits victories by a combined 46-16 last season) but Oakland is NOT a 4-12 team in 2019. I'm not ready to accept that the Chargers' rushing attack is now back on track because of ONE game, as after all, the Chargers rank 28th in the NFL by averaging 79.4 YPG on the ground on a 3.6 YPA. Meanwhile, Oakland's Jacobs has become the first rookie since Cincinnati's Ickey Woods to rush for two TDs three times in his first eight contests, while to leading a running game averaging 136.4 YPG on the ground (4th). Jacobs and Oakland's OL, which has permitted only one sack the last four weeks, have sure helped Derek Carr in playing mistake-free football. Carr has nine TDs and just one INT over his last five games, while posting QB ratings of 119.2, 125.0 and 116.2 in his last three.

This is a HUGE game for the Raiders, as after the Chargers, they play the Bengals (0-8) and Jets (1-7). Beat the Chargers and the Raiders could reasonably be 7-4 through 11 games!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Temple at 8:00 ET.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF have put what could have been a special season for the Owls on 'life-support.' The USF Bulls went 11-2 (2016) and 10-2 (2017) but after a 7-0 start in 2018, finished with SIX straight losses. The Bulls opened the 2019 season 1-3 but have rebounded by winning THREE of four to reach 4-4

Temple’s vet QB Russo (1,873 passing yards / 16-8 ratio) has thrown for just 370 yards in the Owls' back-to-back losses, while Temple's ground game was non-existent (114 yards on 1.6 YPA). Temple does have two solid RBs in Davis (655 yards on 4.9 YPA) and Gardner (405 yards on 4.0 YPA), with both scoring five times. It's hard NOT seeing them being able to run against South Florida rush D allowing 199.2 YPG (103rd). Temple's D has been gored the last two games but in the team's 5-1 start, had allowed a modest 19.0 PPG.

USF has used two QBs this season and neither has been effective. Barrett is completing 51.9% with four TDs and two INTs and McCloud is completing 55.6% with 10 TDs and six INTs. The Bulls ran for for 347 yards in beating East Carolina 45-20 but the Pirates are an awful defensive team, allowing 204.3 YPG on the ground. USF's four wins have come over South Carolina St (FCS) plus UConn, ECU and BYU. The BYU victory is the team's "marquee win" and note that the Cougars are only 4-4 (Bulls won just, 27-23 in Tampa). UConn and ECU are a combined 5-13.

USF has has averaged 43.8 PPG in the team's four victories but just 8.5 PPG in losing to Wisconsin, Ga Tech, SMU and Navy. USF led 17-0 at the half last year at Temple, but the Owls came back to win 27-17, with QB Russo passing for 264 yards. I'm looking for Temple to 'shake off' its back-to-back losses and avoid the team's first three-game losing streak since 2014 (Owls' last non-bowl team, which finished 6-6). Temple becomes bowl-eligible with a win here and could be well on its way to matching, or surpassing, last year's eight wins.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 7:00 ET.

The Kent State Golden Flashes do not have much of football hiistory, unless you consider the school's ineptness, noteworthy. Darrell Hazzell led KSU to an 11-3 season in 2012, the school's first winning season since 2001 (6-5). FYI, prior to 2001, KSU had 13 consecutive losing seasons. Hazzell used that 2012 season to get the job at Purdue and by the way, he was fired after 3 1/2 seasons in which he was 9-33. Getting back to KSU, the Golden Flashes have had SIX straight losing season since Hazzell jumped ship, including current head coach Sean Lewis' 2-10 record in 2018 (his first at the school). The Golden Flashes are 3-5 here in 2019. In stark contrast, Toledo has had 21 winning seasons in its last 25. The Rockets entered the current season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 5-3, is well on their way to another winning season and bowl appearance in 2019. Both schools have been off since Oct 26, as the month of November brings "MACtion,"with the conference playing a plethora of non-Saturday games through the day after Thanksgiving.

Head coach Sean Lewis started the season with Woody Barrett under center but he was quickly replaced by junior Dustin Crum, a decision that has turned out well. Crum is completing 67.0% for 1,345 yards with 10Tds and just one INT. He is also the team's leading rusher, as KSU is averaging a middle-of-the-road 170.8 YPG on the ground (61st). Kent is averaging only 23.9 PPG (100th) on 365.8 YPG (96th). Defensively, KSU is allowing 30.9 PPG (93rd) on 467.8 YPG (119th).

Toledo has some QB issues, as both Mitchell Guadagni and Carter Bradley are dealing with injuries. Toldeo turned Eli Peters in its last game and Peters completed 9 of 18 for just 138 yards but threw two TDs and zero INTs (note: Peters threw 18 TDs vs 7 INTs in 2018). RB Bryant Koback ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and he has run for 985 yards on the season (6.6 YPC and 8 TDs). Toledo ranks 13th in rushing, averaging 245.0 YPG.

Toledo is NOT in good shape in the highly competitive MAC West but Toledo faces an excellent matchup here, as its excellent running game (see above) faces a KSU rush D which is allowing 128th in the nation at 250.9 YPG. Kent St is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019, getting outscored on average, 36.2-to-17.4 PPG. This marks Kent's first game against a West opponent in 2019 and it can't be ignored that the Golden Flashes are just 1-12 vs West opponents going back to 2014. Series history reveals that Toledo has won 11 of 13 vs Kent since 1988 and that Kent has not won at Toledo since 1977! I noted earlier that Toledo has posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and the Rockets entered the current season 43-12 SU at home . The Rockets are 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 35.2-to-19.8 PPG. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET.

My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have opened 8-0 behind a suffocating defense that is No. 1 in scoring D (7.6 PPG) and total D (234.0 YPG). New England also leads the league with 19 interceptions and 31 sacks. The Pats are No. 1 in turnover differential (plus-17) and have incredibly allowed just 15 third-down conversions in 96 attempts. Brady is not having a vintage season (64.7% for 2,251 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs), while New England's running game is averaging only 95.2 YPG (23rd). However, the Pats lead the NFL with an average of 31.2 PPG. Bill Belichick's team is seeking its first 9-0 start since 2015 when it visit Baltimore for NBC's SNF. The Patriots are 8-1 in the last nine regular-season meetings (6-1 with Brady) with the Ravens, but Baltimore has posted a pair of playoff victories at New England in that span.

The Ravens are 5-2 and lead a division (AFC North) which features three sub-.500 teams (Steelers are in 2nd-place at 3-4). The Ravens were off last week and QB Lamar Jackson threw for a season-low 143 yards in a 30-16 Week 7 win at Seattle. However, he ran for 116 yards and a TD. It was his third 100-yard game of the season to boost his team-leading total to 576. Jackson is the only QB to ever pass for at least 1,500 yards (1,650) and rush for 500 (576 on 6.9 YPC with 3 TDs) in the first seven games of a season. Mark Ingram has rushed for 470 yards (4.7 YPC) and seven TDs. That duo has Baltimore leading the NFL in rushing yards (204.1 YPG on 5.5 YPC) and only New England is averaging more than Baltimore's 30.6 PPG. However, the team's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era, allowing 22.3 PPG on 349.7 YPG (both averages rank 16th).

I could go on and on listing superlatives about New England. The Patriots have already squared off and WON against four QBs drafted in the first round in 2018 and will now face a fifth member from that class in Jackson. What's more, New England has won 21 straight against first- or second-year QBs but as noted above, Lamar Jackson is literally, in a "class by himself" (see above). I noted Baltimore's top-ranked rushing offense above and will add that the Pats allowed 159 rushing yards (7.2 YPC) last Sunday against the Browns. Could Baltimore run the ball and keep it away from Brady. Teams can't "win'em all" and it's tough to ignore that under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 9-2 SU coming off a bye week. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Cle/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, as they were expecting to take a major step forward behind second-year QB Baker Mayfield .Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Now, as the 2019 season enters its mid-point (Week 9 of a 17-week season), the Browns are just 2-5, after losing their THIRD consecutive game 27-13 at New England last Sunday. The Browns visit Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos. Denver went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Broncos D is allowing 18.9 PPG (4th) on 304.5 YPG (4th) but the team's offense (15.6 PPG, ranking 28th) has kept them from doing any better than 2-6.

Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his promising rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 57.6 percent with 6 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 67.8. The Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (738 yards on 5.5 YPC with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry, who have both underachieved with Mayfield's poor play. The Cleveland defense is allowing 25.9 PPG (22nd).

Denver QB Joe Flacco was diagnosed with a herniated disk in his neck after last Sunday's 15-13 to the Colts, a contest in which he complained about the team's conservative play-calling. Whether or not Flacco was right, we know that he has failed to eclipse more than 213 yards passing in each of his last four games and has thrown just six TDs (five INTs) on the season. Denver's running game is averaging only 110.0 YPG (16th) but the Broncos do own a pair of quality RBs in Lindsay (492 yards / 4.5 YPC) and Freeman (359 yards / 4.1 YPC). Flacco's herniated disk will sideline him six weeks at a minimum, so the Broncos will turn to Brandon Allen, a fourth-year pro from Arkansas who will make his first start since Jan 2, 2016, against Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl.

Allen becomes the SIXTH different starting QB for the Broncos since the start of the 2016 season (Elway sure KNOWS a QB when he sees one!). "First of all, Brandon is a very intelligent dude,” RB Phillip Lindsay said. “I’m excited to see what he has to offer. I think he’s going to move around a lot, and I think he’s going to take shots and stuff.” Speaking of Lindsay, he joins Freeman as a solid 1-2 RB Denver combo that will face a Cleveland rush D allowing 143.3 YPG on the ground (29th). I expect Denver to be successful against Cleveland's sad-sack defense but I also see a good (possibly excellent) performance from Mayfield, now that Browns realize 2019 we be another in a long line of disappointments. This VERY low Over/Under number gives us a strong play on the Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 9 Las Vegas Insider is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The Bears won the NFC Central last season with a 12-4 record, led by a defense that ranked first in points allowed (17.7 per) and third in total defense (299.7 YPG). However, Chicago's postseason ended with Cody Parkey's double-doink FG misfire in a 16-15 home loss to the Eagles. Chicago still features an excellent defense, allowing 17.7 PPG (6th) on 316.6 YPG (7th) but the team's offense has been a HUGE problem. When Eddy Pineiro's (Chicago's new PK) 41-yard FG attempt went awry in the waning moments of last Sunday's 17-16 setback to the LA Chargers, the Bears fell to 3-4, leaving them in last-place in a division led by the 7-1 Packers and one which also includes the 6-2 Vikings. The Eagles have had a rough time of it in 2019 as well, although Philly is off an impressive 38-13 win last week at Buffalo, a team which entered with a 5-1 record. It was Philly's THIRD straight road game but the Eagles delivered their best effort of the season, coming off back-to-back road losses tat Minnesota and Dallas where they were outscored 75-30!

Pineiro's missed FG pushed Chicago's offensive woes off 'the front page' but things won't improve for the Bears unless they can 'fix' and offense which ranks 27th (18.3 PPG) on 281.4 YPG (29th). I read this quote and am 'forced' to 'borrow' it. "If here is one thing worse than whiffing on taking a QB high in the draft like the Bears did with Mitch Trubisky, it’s compounding that mistake by sticking with Trubisky. " As Archie Bunker once opined, "Case Closed!" Chicago ranks 29th in passing yards (198.3 per) and 26th in rushing (83.1 YPG), on 3.6 YPC. Those rushing numbers come AFTER rookie David Montgomery posted season highs in carries (27) and rushing yards (135) against the Chargers.

Chicago could sure use Jordan Howard, who rushed for 3,370 yards and 24 touchdowns during his first three seasons with Chicago. However, he was traded to Philadelphia for a conditional sixth-round pick. Howard leads the Eagles with 443 yards (4.4 YPC / 5 TDs). Conventional wisdom says Carson Wentz is having an "off year" but he kept pace with Seattle's Russell Wilson by tossing a TD pass in his 11th consecutive contest on Sunday. He's got a 14-4 ratio but his throws have been VERY conservative. TE Ertz (37 catches) is averaging only 11.5 YPC, while WRs Jeffrey (30) and Agholor (29) are averaging only 10.6 and 9.0, respectively. Philly's defense has battled injury problems most of the season (especially in the secondary) but the unit played its best game of 2019 at Buffalo, allowing 13 points on just 253 yards (note: the secondary has gotten healthie).

Sure, it's "playoff revenge" for Chicago but discounting a London game in Week 5 (Oct 6), the Bears haven’t played a true road game since Sep 23 (Week 3). Looking back, maybe it wasn’t such an upset that the Bears lost to the Raiders in London. Chicago just isn’t a very good team and its morale can't be very high due to inept QB play and a shaky PK. Meanwhile, the Philly offense just put up 38 points on a Buffalo D that entered last week's game allowing just 15.6 PPG plus it appears like WR Sean Jackson is ready to return from an abdominal injury that has kept him out since Week 2 (eight catches on 19.3 YPC!). Philly moves to 5-4 and then awaits the results of MNF, when the 5-3 Cowboys play at the Giants. As for the Bears, they will begin "looking ahead" to 2020, while trying to figure just why they chose Trubisky ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 draft. OOOPS!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday.

The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back.

Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th).

KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1).

Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.'

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET.

Jeff Tedford came to in 2017 and led a team which went 1-11 in 2016 to a 10-4 record in 2017and then to a 12-2 record in 2018. However, most anticipated that 2019 would be a rebuilding one for the Bulldogs and that has been the case. Fresno is 3-4 overall (1-2 MWC) and travels to Hawaii off a 41-31 home loss to Colorado St. Hawaii checks in at 5-3 (2-2 in MWC) and this contest with Fresno St opens a stretch in which Hawaii will play FOUR of its final five games at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu (13-game schedule).

Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna is completing 62.8% for 1,655 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs.The team has suffered injuries to its RB group and checks in averaging 166.9 YPG (70th). That said, FSU has averaged 33.0 PPG (36th). The problem for FSU in 2019 has been a defense that allowed just 14.1 PPG (2018) and 17.9 (2017), has allowed 31.0 PPG (95th) in 2019.

Hawaii QB Cole McDonald is completing 65.5% for 2,521 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs (Hawaii ranks 3rd in the nation, averaging 354.5 YPG through the air). Hawaii's defense is even worse than Fresno's, allowing 35.4 PPG (120th) on 437.8 YPG (104th).

Fresno has won SEVEN of the last eight meetings but TY's Fresno edition only has wins over Sacramento St (FCS), New Mexico St (0-8) and UNLV (2-6). The Rainbow Warriors have a much more balanced offensive attack and are staring down a bowl bid with this contest, as well as home games with San Jose St and Army still to go.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET.

Nevada began 2019 with a 34-31 home upset of Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. The Wolf Pack edged San Jose St 41-38 at home to open October but have since lost 36-10 at Utah St and 31-3 at Wyoming. The Wolf Pack return home this Saturday at 4-4 (1-3 in MWC) to host 2-6 New Mexico (0-4 MWC). The Lobos enter this contest on a five-game slide.

Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos beat Sam Houston St (FCS ) and New Mexico St (currently 0-8) in its first three games but as noted above, has now lost FIVE in a row. New Mexico owns a solid running game (211.8 YPG ranks 25th) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 37.6 PPG (126th) on 505.6 YPG (129th).

Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii but the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.1 PPG (117th) on 357.2 YPG (100th). However, here's the rub. These schools have met just seven times (series is tied 3-3-1) but the home team is 5-1-1. Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 61-28 SU since 2005 and a victory here puts Nevada just ONE win away from bowl eligibility, with games at Fresno St (3-4) and home to UNLV (2-6) still left on the schedule. As for New Mexico, it's time for Davie to go!

Good luck...Larry