Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-21 | Lakers -2 v. Celtics | Top | 96-95 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 8:35 ET. The Lakers blew a big lead at home to Golden St back on Jan 18 (115-113 loss) and then began a SEVEN-game road trip. LA opened with an impressive 113-106 win at Milwaukee and followed with wins at Chicago and Cleveland, extending their road to record to 10-0 to open the season. However, the Lakers then lost 107-106 at Philly (76ers are at home) but followed with a 107-92 loss at Detroit, when they scored just 34 points in the second half (LBJ had two points after halftime). Two games remain on their demanding seven-game road trip, including tonight at TD Garden with the Celtics. Boston enters off a setback of its own, failing to beat the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday after coming back from as much as 15 points down. Boston was up 101-99 with less than two minutes remaining but couldn't hold on in the 110-106 loss. The Celtics are a modest 10-7 on the season. Anthony Davis has a bruised right quad and did not play at Detroit and is questionable here. LBJ (25.5-7.8-7.5) and A.D. (21.9 & 8.8) lead the Lakers but the additions of PF Harrell and PG Schroder have been HUGE. Harrell comes off the bench to average 12.8 & 6.6 and Schroder has started all 20 games at the point, producing 13.6-3.7-4.2. Caldwell-Pope (9.9) starts at SG and Kuzma (10.1 & 5.8) comes off the bench like Harrell. Boston has its preferred starting-five back, as PG Walker returned five games ago and Tatum is out from under COVID protocols. Brown (27.1 & 5.6) and Tatum (26.5 & 6.8) are quite a one-two 'punch' but while Walker is averaging 16.4 & 4.1 APG, Boston is 1-4 in his five games back. Smart's has been excellent (13.6 & 6.0) and undersized center Theis (9.4 & 4.9) but new acquisitions PF Thompson (6.2 & 8.6) and PG Teague (5.9 & 2.3 APG) have been underwhelming. The Lakers matched the Celtics for most titles in league history at 17 by winning last year's title and there is NO better rivalry in the NBA. Obviously, if A.D. misses it's a big deal but I REALLY like the Lakers off their back-to-back losses, either way. LA's plus-8.3 point differential is the best in the league, while Boston checks in at juts plus-2.3. As LBJ said after the loss at Detroit, "We got to keep our minds fresh, keep our bodies fresh as much as we can to go out there and put together a complete 48-minute game, or close to 48 minutes. Obviously we haven't done it the last couple of games, and we just got to be better on Saturday." LA will "be better" tonight! Good luck...Larry |
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01-30-21 | Bucks -7 v. Hornets | Top | 114-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET. The Charlotte Hornets topped the Indiana Pacers 108-105 on Friday, avenging a loss to the same team two nights earlier. Charlotte made key plays down the stretch after a double-digit lead had vanished. Hornets head coach James Borrego liked the poise his team demonstrated. The 8-11 Hornets will need more than just poise to get past the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, who will arrive in Charlotte licking their wounds after a 131-126 road loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night. The Bucks have owned the NBA's best regular season record in each of the last two seasons but have fallen short in each of the last two postseasons. Milwaukee is just 11-7 this season, as the team's .611 winning percentage is FAR below the .748 win percentage the Bucks have had the last two seasons in going a combined 116-39. Giannis (27.5-11.0-5.5) has won the last two MVP awards and has quite a sidekick in SF Middleton, who is averaging 21.6-6.6-5.9 6.2. Jrue Holiday (15.9-4.7-5.23 has taken over for the departed Bledsoe plus guard DiVincenzo (9.9 & 4.1) and center Brook Lopez (10.9 & 5.2) round out the starting lineup. The 6-10 Portis comes off the bench and has been a HUGE addition in averaging 10.6 & 7.5 in about 22 MPG. Forbes, Connaughton and Augustin add a combined 19 PPG. Gordon Hayward left Boston to sign with Charlotte and one wonders why. He's averaging 22.9-5.3-3.7 but after playing for the Jazz and Celtics, what could he possibly expect this Charlotte team to do the next three-to-five years? Guards Rozier (18.9 &n 4.1) and Graham (13.9 & 6.3) have both played well but the jury is still out on the team's No. 1, LeMelo Ball (11.4-5.9-5.9). PJ Washington (12.9 & 6.8) is a solid frontcourt player and center Zeller (8.0 & 6.9) is back after missing a month. The Bucks stormed back from a 29-point hole before falling at New Orleans, snapping Milwaukee's two-game winning streak. The Bucks have yet to exceed four straight victories this season, so they are still looking to sustain a good roll. I have to believe that 'roll' IS coming and will note that Milwaukee's point differential of plus-8.2 is just shy of LA's league-leading plus-8.3. In comparison, Charlotte's at minus-1.7. Milwaukee has been an excellent ATS play off a SU loss these last two seasons and I see "B-LO-W-O-U-T written all over this one." Good luck...Larry |
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01-29-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs +4.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Ultimate Underdog of the Month is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The Denver Nuggets were the "Comeback Kids" of last season's playoff 'bubble' but struggled out of the gate in the current season. Denver lost on Jan 17 and fell to 6-7 but have since won and covered each of their last FIVE games, The team's recent surge has them 11-7 on the season and owners of the West's No. 4 seed. The Nuggets look to complete a perfect road trip (last four wins have all been on the road) as they conclude their five-game road trip in San Antonio Spurs. Not much was expected of the Spurs coming into this season, after San Antonio saw a 22-year playoff run end last season with a 32-29 record. However, at 10-8, the Spurs own the West's fifth-best record. The Nuggets head to San Antonio off a 109-82 Wednesday win at Miami in which Denver led by 25 points at the half. Jokic (25.2-11.8-8.9) finished with 21 points and 11 rebounds for his 18th consecutive double-double. Porter Jr. (18.3 & 7.1) scored 17 points, Green (11.5 & 6.7) added 15 points and 10 rebounds and Jamal Murray (19.0-3.9-4.2) had 14 points for Denver. Paul Millsap (9.7 & 5.2) had 11 points and Will Barton (10.8-4.2-3.0) 10 points, giving the Nuggets SIX players in double-figure scoring. The Spurs are led by DeRozan (20.1-5.3-6.8), who is joined by SIX double digit scorers. Aldridge (14.9 & 4.6) is playing center and has averaged 20.3 PPG his last three. PG Murray (14.4-7.3-5.3), SF Johnson (14.4 & 7.4) and guard Walkers (12.6) are San Antonio's other r-three starters, while guard Mills (14.3) and SF Gay (11.5 & 5.5) regularly contribute off the bench. Yes, the Nuggets have won 10 of their 13 games since beginning the season 1-4 but San Antonio is a mix of older and younger players who are coming together. This is Denver's FIFTH road in SEVEN days and is the perfect spot for the home dog to 'bark' LOUDLY! Good luck...Larry |
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01-27-21 | Thunder v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Pho Suns at 9:00 ET. OKC made it to the NBA Finals back in the 2011-12 season but that was NINE years ago and the Thunder are in rebuilding mode, as the trio of Harden, KD and Westbrook have all since moved on, as have All Stars like Paul George and Chris Paul after brief stints. The 7-9 Thunder are in Phoenix tonight to face the 8-7 Suns and Chris Paul, who they traded away in November as part of a rebuilding effort. The Suns opened the season 5-1 (were 8-0 SU & ATS in the 'bubble') but are just 3-6 since. Leading OKC these days is guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The third-year player is averaging a career-best 21.9 PPG with 5.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists. He had 24 points with nine rebounds and six assists as the Thunder won 125-122 at Portland on Monday. Mike Muscala (9.8) added 23 points and a career-best six 3-pointers. However, the Thunder played without Al Horford (11.1 & 7.1), who has been out since Jan 15 for the birth of his daughter and George Hill (11.8), who was out with a strained right thumb. Both are NOT expected to play. The Suns are coming off back-to-back narrow defeats against the Denver Nuggets, falling in overtime in the first game and double OT on Saturday. Saturday's 120-112 defeat only went to extra time when Denver's Jamal Murray made a leaning three-pointer at the end of regulation while falling out of bounds (Naturally, I had the Suns in a forgettable week). Booker (22.9 PPG) sat out with an injured hamstring but word is, he'll be back tonight. Either way, I'm 'ON' the Suns. Former first round picks Bridges (15.1 & 5.8) and Johnson (11.9 & 3.2) have made HUGE strides this season plus 6-11 center Ayton is averaging a double-double on the season (15.0 & 12.2). All three have NOT missed a game. Neither has Chris Paul, who is averaging 13.8-4.7-9.0. SF Crowder (FA pickup) has also played all 15 games (12 starts), averaging 10.3 & 4.6). The "situation" is just right for a double-digit Phoenix win. That's the play! Good luck...Larry |
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01-27-21 | Lakers v. 76ers +3 | Top | 106-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Phi 76ers at 7:35 ET. The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers are an NBA-best 14-4 and play tonight in Philadelphia against the 76ers, who own the East's best record at 12-6. The Lakers improved to 10-0 away from home on Monday at Cleveland, 115-108, as LeBron James celebrated his homecoming with a season-high 46 points on 19-of-26 shooting to go along with eight rebounds and six assists. Philadelphia is looking to bounce back from a 119-104 loss on the road to the Detroit Pistons on Monday, when the 76ers played without Joel Embiid (back) and fell to 0-4 without the All Star this season. Embiid is off the injury list on Wednesday and is expected to play. Only four other players in NBA history have scored at least 46 points in a game once they reached the age of 36. The others? The late Kobe Bryant, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan and Jamal Crawford (how'd he get in there?). LBJ (25.2-7.9-7.4) and A.D. (21.8 & 8.9) lead the Lakers but the additions of PH Harrell and PG Schroder have been HUGE. Harrell comes off the bench to average 13.7 & 7.4 and Schroder has started all 18 games at the point, producing 13.6-3.8-4.2. Caldwell-Pope (10.6) starts at SG and Kuzma (9.8 & 5.6) comes off the bench like Harrell. Embiid used a strict offseason conditioning program and it seems to have worked well, as he has missed just four games, averaging 27.7 & 11.5. PF Harris (19.8 & 6.7) and PG Simmons (12.8-8.4-7.1) have contributed nicely, while rookie Maxey (10.0) plus vets Danny Green (9.1) and Dwight Howard (6.5 & 7.9 in just 15.5 MPG) have all played in each of Philly's 18 games. Seth Curry (15.6) is back after sitting out two weeks due to the league's health and safety protocols plus Milton is adding 15.1 PPG off the bench. The Lakers were last home back on Jan 18 and won't return until playing in Atlanta on Feb 1. This is their FOURTH of seven games on the road and the champs will stumble somewhere. Why not here at Philly, as the 76ers are an NBA-best 9-1 at home? Good luck...Larry |
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01-25-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 104-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers won 114-110 at Detroit on Saturday, The Pistons have the NBA's worst record at 3-13 but head coach Doc Rivers said he's happy with any road vic0rty. Philly struggled on the road last season and are just 3-4 away from home this season, although Philly owns the East's best record at 12-5. As for the Pistons, they are coming off a frustrating week in which they went 0-4 when they could have easily gone 4-0. They squandered a 19-point lead to Miami, then blew a 17-point, fourth-quarter lead at Atlanta. Det dropped a one-point decision to Houston before the Sixers came to town and won by four points on Saturday. Embiid used a strict offseason conditioning program and it seems to have worked well, as he is averaging 27.7 & 11.5). PF Harris (19.4 & 6.6) and PG Simmons (12.9-8.7-8.1) have contributed nicely, while rookie Maxey (9.6) plus vets Danny Green (9.3) and Dwight Howard (6.6 & 8.1 in just 15.5 MPG) have all played in each of Philly's 17 games. Seth Curry (16.5) scored 14 points on Saturday, playing his second game since sitting out two weeks due to the league's health and safety protocols. Milton is adding 15.4 PPG off the bench. Jerami Grant (24.3 & 6.4) has been Detroit's best player all season but the Pistons could also use a bounce-back game from him. Grant was just 3 of 19 from the floor (11 points) on Saturday, after scoring 20 or more points for 14 consecutive games. Detroit's two former All Stars, Rose (14.8 & 4.1 APG) and Griffin (12.8-6.3-4.2) both missed Saturday's game but they are expected to play on Monday. Starting along with Grant in Saturday's game were guards Ellington (11.1) and Wright (8.0-4.1-4.1) plus center Plumlee (8.3 & 8.5) and rookie SF bey (8.1 & 3.3). The silver lining for Detroit on Saturday was the play of young reserves Svi Mykhailiuk (7.6) and Sekou Doumbouya (4.3). The duo combined for 28 points, eight rebounds, four assists and two steals. Detroit gets a second chance (in three days) against the 76ers (at best, a mediocre road team) and note that while Detroit is an NBA-worst 3-13, it is 8-7-1 ATS, Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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01-25-21 | Raptors v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 114-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM of the Month is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors were the 2019 NBA champions and last season, entered the postseason as the East's No. 2 seed with a 53-19 record, despite losing Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers as a free agent. Note that the Raptors' record last season put them just 2 1/2-games back of the Bucks and was a half-game BETTER than the West's No. 1 seed, and eventual NBA champion Lakers! However, the Raptors opened the current season 2-8 (3-7 ATS) but after winning 107-102 Sunday afternoon at Indiana, have gone 5-1 SU (still just 3-3 ATS), since that terrible start. Indiana Pacers first-year coach Nate Bjorkgren will try to gain a split with his former boss and Toronto Raptors coach Nick Nurse Monday night when the teams complete a two-game set at Indianapolis. Bjorkgren played at South Dakota when Nurse was an assistant coach there and was an assistant coach for Nurse with the Raptors for the last two seasons before he took over at Indiana this season. The Pacers enter this game just 1-3 SU its last four but 0-4 ATS. The Raptors won on Sunday but were without Kyle Lowry (infected toe) and Pascal Siakam (left knee swelling). Siakam averages 18.6-8.1-4.7 and Lowry 18.2-6.5-7.1. Their status for Monday is uncertain. VanVleet (19.1-4.5-6.4) has developed into an All-Star caliber player plus Anunoby (14.9 & 5.9), Boucher (14.6 & 6.5) and Powell (12.9) all averaging in double digits.as. Oladipo (20.0 PPG) is gone in a trade and his expected replacement (LeVert) has a medical issue. SF Warren (15.5) remains out with a foot injury for the Pacers but there is still enough talent to go around. PG Brogdon (21.9-3.9-7.1) and PF Sabonis (20.9-12.9-5.8) are playing at an All Star level plus center Turner averages 14.0 & 6.8, while leading the NBA in blocks (4.2 per). McDermott is averaging 12.9 PPG on 49.4% shooting off the bench. The Holidays, Justin (11.1) and Aaron (6.3) have both been solid plus Lamb's return from injury is a BIG deal. He has averaged 15.0 PPG in his three games back since tearing his ACL last February. The Raptors held Malcolm Brogdon to 12 points on 5-for-22 shooting from the floor and Domantas Sabonis, who had 10 points and 19 rebounds, did not score in the second half, going 0-for-7 on FGs. All that, and Sunday's game was tied at 102 with 1:09 to play! Quick turnaround (at home, no less) really favors the Pacers. Expect Brogdon and Sabonis to bounce back and who knows about the status of Lowry and Siakam. Good luck...Larry |
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01-24-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 115-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET. The Atlanta Hawks have a bevy of young stars and have won three straight games to reach 8-7, as they head to Milwaukee. The Bucks have owned the NBA's best regular season record in each of the last two seasons but have fallen short in each of the last two postseasons. Milwaukee is off back-to-back losses, 125-123 at Brooklyn and 113-106 at home vs the Lakers, and find themselves just 9-6. The team's .600 winning percentage is FAR below the .748 win percentage the Bucks have had the last two seasons in going a combined 116-39. Trae Young scored 43 in Atlanta's 116-98 Friday win at Minnesota, emerging from a mini-shooting slump that had seen him score 50 points over a three-game stretch. He now has 81 points over the last two games, upping his average to 25.3 PPG (ha hands out 8.7 APG, as well). Young is the brightest star of Atlanta's young talent but don't discount Hunter (16.3 & 5.9), Collins (15.9 & 7.5), Reddish (12.4 & 4.7) and Huerter (11.9). Then there is former Houston center Clint Capela, who is coming off his first career triple-double (13 & 19 plus 10 blocks! He's averaging 14.5 & 14.2 on the season. Giannis (27.0-10.3-5.1) has won the last two MVP awards and has quite a sidekick in SF Middleton, who is averaging 22.9 & 6.2. Jrue Holiday (16.1-4.3-5.2) has taken over for the departed Bledsoe plus guard DiVincenzo (10.1) and center Brook Lopez (9.9 & 5.3) round out the starting lineup. The 6-10 Portis comes off the bench and has been a HUGE addition in averaging 10.9 & 8.1 in about 23 MPG. Forbes, Connaughton and Augustin add a combined 19 PPG. While Atlanta is young, Milwaukee's starting lineup averages nine years of experience. For all its youthful talent, Atlanta's three-game 'surge' has them just 8-7 on the season. Looking closer at that 'surge' and you'll note the Hawks own two wins over Minnesota and one over Detroit, two teams with a combined win percentage of .226. Off back-to-back losses, expect the Bucks to R-O-L-L! Good luck...Larry |
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01-24-21 | Cavs v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 103-141 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at ET. The Boston Celtics have dropped three straight, a stretch during which they have been without star forward Jayson Tatum as he recovers from COVID-19. Tatum was considered 50-50 to play in the team's last game but did not, as Boston lost its third in a row, 122-110 at Philadelphia. Conversely, the Cavaliers are in the midst of their best stretch of the young season, having beaten the Brooklyn Nets in back-to-back meetings to extend their winning streak to three. "Break up the Cavs," who are now 8-7 and currently own the East's No. 6 seed (Cavs last made the playoffs in 2018, going 19-63 and 19-46 the last two seasons). The key to Cleveland's turnaround has been third-year guard Collin Sexton (16.7 & 20.8 PPG in his first two), who has scored at least 20 points in each of the 10 games he has played this season. Sexton poured in a career-high 42 points in a double-overtime win over the Nets on Wednesday and enters this contest averaging 26.8 & 4.2 APG. More good news for Cavaliers came with guard Darius Garland (16.9 & 5.9 APG) returning from eight games missed with a shoulder injury to score 11 points in Friday's win. Center Drummond (18.8 & 15.1) has become a nightly double-double plus newly acquired Prince (15.5 & 5.0) and Allen (15.5 & 8.5) have been better than advertised in their two games since coming from the Nets. Jaylen Brown had 42 points and nine rebounds during the losing effort on Friday and has flourished during Tatum's absence. He's averaging 26.9 & 6.0 on the season, pulling even with Tatum (26.9 & 7.1). Smart (13.8 & 5.6 APG) is the team's best perimeter defender and undersized center Theis (6.7 & 8.3) has performed well. Getting PG Walker back (he's averaged 15.7 & 5.0 APG in three games) is good news but the problem is, Boston's lost all three. Ex-Cav Thompson (6.7 & 8.3) has been fine but has NOT had the breakout season he and the Celtics expected. Again, when Tatum gets back is still unsure but with Boston having won its last EIGHT meetings vs Cleveland, I look for the Celtics to end their current three-game slide against the Cavs off their back-to back wins over the Nets. Good luck...Larry |
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01-23-21 | Nuggets v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 120-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Pho Suns at 9:05 ET. 15 games into the season Denver center Nikola Jokic is averaging 25.5-11.3-9.9, just a fraction under a triple-double. He finished with 31 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists last night, in Denver's 130-126 OT win at Phoenix. The Suns led by as many as 14 but Denver rallied to tie it late in the fourth quarter, then won it in overtime. The Nuggets are now 8-7, the first time this season Denver is above .500. As for the Suns, they fell to 8-6, after a 7-3 start. The Nuggets got a boost Friday with the return of Michael Porter Jr., who had missed 10 games due to coronavirus issues. Porter had seven points and six rebounds in 20 minutes off the bench in his first action since Dec. 29. Porter is averaging 17.0 & 6.6. Swingman Barton missed all 'bubble' games last season with an injury but has played in all 15 games this season (11 starts), averaging 11.8-4.2-3.1.Morris (11.7) and Harris (11.1) contribute in the backcourt alongside Murray (19.1). Millsap (10.7 & 5.1) and Green (10.3 & 6.5) give Jokic support. The Suns are a perfect 8-0 SU & ATS in the Orlando 'bubble' and added Chris Paul (13.3 & 8.7 APG) in hopes of becoming a real playoff contender. He teams with Booker, whose scoring has been slightly down this season (22.9 PPG from 25.6 PPG each of the last two season). However, the Suns are likely to NOT have Booker (31 points last night) for this immediate rematch, as was injured late in overtime during a scramble for the ball. After the game, coach Monty Williams said Booker hurt a hamstring, leaving him doubtful for the Saturday contest. Obviously, I'd prefer to have Booker but I'm "all over" the Suns anyway. Former first round picks Bridges (15.4 & 5.9) and Johnson (11.4) have made HUGE strides this season plus 6-11 center Ayton is averaging a double-double on the season (14.9 & 12.1). Denver has been an underachiever so far this season and I don't trust them at all in trying for a two-game road sweep at Phoenix (on back-to-back nights), whether Booker plays or not! Good luck...Larry |
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01-22-21 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 110-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. The first game of Friday's ESPN doubleheader is 8-5 Boston playing at 10-5 Philadelphia. These teams met Wednesday in Philly, with Embiid's 42 points leading the way to a 117-109 win (Sixers outscored the Celtics 31-17 in the 4th quarter). Boston has lost two straight after a five-game winning streak and the 76ers are 8-1 at home. Boston's Tatum has been out due to COVID-19 protocols but head coach Brad Stevens said Tatum has a "50-50 chance" of playing Friday. The Celtics played well for large stretches on Wednesday night, led by Jaylen Brown's (25.8 & 5.8) 26 points and 25 from Marcus Smart (13.3 & 5.5 APG). However, they clearly missed Jayson Tatum (26.9 & 7.1). The Celtics did receive a huge lift from PG Kemba Walker, who hit five 3-pointers and scored 19 points in just his second game back from a knee injury (Celtics are 0-2 in his return). Rookie Pritchard (8.3) and FA signee Teague (7.1) give Boston depth on the perimeter. Undersized center Theis is shooting 69.1% from the floor, while averaging 9.6 PPG over his last 10. He's now getting help inside from former Cav Thompson, who is averaging 6.9 PPG and a team-high 8.5 RPG. Embiid used a strict offseason conditioning program and is averaging 26.4 & 11.3. His 42-point effort makes him just the second player to have two, 40-point games this season, joining Washington's Bradley Beal. PF Harris (19.3 & 6.8) and PG Simmons (12.2-9.2-8.0) have contributed nicely, while rookie Maxey (11.6) plus vets Danny Green (9.7) and Dwight Howard (6.9 & 7.9) have all played in each of Philly's 15 games. SG Milton is adding 16.8 PPG off the bench. Obviously, it would be GREAT to get Tatum back but note that the Celtics hung with Philly all game on Wednesday, with no Tatum and Embiid scoring 42 points. Tatum or not, the Celtics (Boston swept Philly 4-0 in last season's playoffs) plus the points is the play in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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01-21-21 | Lakers v. Bucks +1 | Top | 113-106 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Mil Bucks at 7:35 ET. The LA Lakers are 11-4, tied with the Clippers for the NBA's best record. However, the Lakers own the NBA's best point-differential (plus-10.2), with the Clippers checking in at plus-7.1, No team has been better on the road than the Lakers, who take a perfect 7-0 SU run into their game tonight at the Bucks, who are 9-5 (6-1 at home) and own the league's second-best point differential at plus-9.8. Both teams are coming off losses, the Lakers 115-113 at home to the Warriors and the Bucks 125-123 at Brooklyn. The good news for NBA fans is that in this 'Year of COVID,' both teams come in healthy. The Lakers blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead against the Warriors, with LBJ missing a last-second three-pointer. The Lakers are led by the dynamic duo of LBJ (23.7-7.9-7.5) and A.D. (21.3 & 9.0) plus have to added two terrific players in PG Schroder (14.8-4.2-4.7) and PF Harrell, who comes off the bench to add 14.0 & 7.4 in 24 1/2 minutes per game). Giannis (27.2-10.2-5.23) has won the last two MVP awards and has quite a sidekick in SF Middleton, who is averaging 22.1-6.3-3.6. Jrue Holiday (15.7-4.2-5.1) has taken over for the departed Bledsoe plus guard DiVincenzo (10.1 & 3.9) and center Brook Lopez (9.7 & 5.4) round out the starting lineup. The 6-10 Portis comes off the bench and while his numbers are a little shy of Harrell's, he's been a HUGE addition in averaging 10.9 & 8.1 in 23 MPG. Which team to take off a loss? The Lakers are the better defensive team (105.1 PPG ranks third) but Milwaukee is averaging 120.4 PPG (2nd) on 48.5% shooting (5th), including 40.3% on threes (2nd). Beating the defending champs is something the Bucks almost NEED to do. That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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01-20-21 | Mavs v. Pacers +1 | Top | 124-112 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The 6-7 Dallas Mavericks visit Indianapolis to take on the 8-8 Pacers stuck in their first three-game losing streak since late in the 2018-19 season. Dallas lost 116-93 to Toronto on Monday to open a three-game trip. Tonight's contest is the second of a brutal stretch of five games in seven days for Dallas. The Pacers are coming off an 'ugly' 129-96 at the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday, which concluded an extended road trip that saw the Pacers play four games (a fifth was postponed) from Jan 11-17. Tonight's game begins a four-game homestand for Indiana. Luka Doncic (27.2-9.9-9.3) had 36 points, 16 rebounds and 15 assists in a 117-101 home loss to Chicago on Sunday but the Raptors held him to 15 points, seven rebounds and nine assists in Monday's loss. Jalen Brunson returned to the lineup after missing the previous four games due to the NBA's health and safety protocols but the Mavericks still are without Josh Richardson, (13.8), Dorian Finney-Smith (.3 & 5.0), Maxi Kleber (7.4 & 5.3) and Dwight Powell (5.0 & 3.6). The 7-3 Porzingis returned four games ago after recovering from an injury but while he's averaged 18.5 & 7.8, the Mavs have lost THREE of those four games. The Pacers are not 100 percent either, as Oladipo (20.0 PPG) is gone in a trade and his expected replacement (LeVert) has a medical issue. SF Warren (15.) remains out with a foot injury and center Turner (12.4 & 6.8), who also leads the NBA in blocks, is sidelined with a right-hand injury suffered in Indiana's 111-87 win over Portland last Thursday. However, PG Brogdon (22.2-4.0-7.5) and PF Sabonis (21.7-12.8-5.8) are playing at an All Star level. McDermott (2.6 PPG on 51.3% shooting) has played well all season off the bench and the Pacers are getting solid contributions from three more guards. The Holidays, Justin (11.0 & 3.5 APG) and Aaron (5.9 & 2.5 APG) will get increased "PT" plus so will Sumner (6.7). Neither team is 100 percent but the Pacers are the play here at home, as the Mavs continue to struggle, despite Luka's brilliance. Good luck...Larry |
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01-18-21 | Bucks -2 v. Nets | Top | 123-125 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Month is on the Mil Bucks at 7:35 ET. |
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01-18-21 | Spurs v. Blazers +2 | Top | 125-104 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Por Blazers at 3:05 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers have won FIVE of their last six and have upped their record to 8-5. They will look to continue their winning ways Monday afternoon at Moda Center when they welcome the 7-6 San Antonio Spurs to Portland. The Spurs have won FIVE of seven and the team's 7-6 record is good enough to lead the Southwest Division (we don't reference divisions much these days). Portland's 8-5 record leaves them one game back of the Jazz in the Northwest. Overall, Portland is the No. 5 seed and San Antonio the No. 6 seed. The Spurs came off an impressive 4-1 road trip but despite leading the roster-depleted Rockets 99-90 with 4:39 to play, got outscored 19-6 the rest of the way to lose. However, the Spurs rebounded from that loss in Saturday's rematch. However, the Rockets, despite suiting up just eight players (the league-mandated minimum), were up to the task until the final five minutes. DeMar DeRozan scored 24 points in Saturday's win, while Jakob Poeltl and Dejounte Murray added double doubles, as the Spurs were at their best when fatigue finally got to Houston. SEVEN Spurs are averaging in double digits, with guards DeRozan (20.7-5.7-6.7) and Murray (15.8-7.3-5.2) leading the way. While the Spurs came back from a double-digit first-half deficit to beat short-handed Houston 103-91, Portland was forced to mount its own comeback against the Hawks without CJ McCollum (26.7-3.9-5.0), who scored 16 first-half points but did not play in the second half due to a sprained left foot. The Blazers limited Atlanta to 20 points in each of the final two quarters and roared back after trailing by seven at halftime to win 112-106. Damian Lillard (27.6-4.8-6.8) led the way vs Atlanta with 36 points. Melo (13.0) and Gary Trent (11.5) have been productive off the bench and center Kanter made his first start of the season, as Nurkic (9.8 & 7.7) is out with a broken hand. Kanter has 12 points and 15 rebounds in 29 minutes and has been a great addition, averaging 10.8 & 9.4 on the season. Other new additions like SF Jones (7.0 & 4.2) and PF Covington (6.5 & 5.9) have underperformed but Jones scored 10 points vs the Hawks, while Covington had 10 rebounds. Nurkic will be missed (out at least EIGHT weeks) but McCollum underwent an MRI and his injury was just a sprain. He will be a game-time decision Monday. Portland is being VERY undervalued here and I say "The PRICE is RIGHT!" Good luck...Larry |
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01-17-21 | Pacers v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 96-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Clippers at 10:05 ET. The defending champion Lakers own the NBA's best record at 11-3 but their Staples Center co-tenants, the Clippers, look to stay within striking distance when they host the Indiana Pacers tonight. The Clippers have won FIVE of their last seven contests, after they crushed the Kings 138-100 on Friday (15th consecutive win at Sacramento!) to reach 8-4 The Pacers are also 8-4, after routing the Portland Trail Blazers 111-87 on Thursday. The win snapped an 11-game losing streak at Portland, where the Pacers hadn't won since 2007. The Pacers' scheduled game Saturday at the Phoenix Suns was postponed, due to the league's health and safety protocols. The Suns didn't have the NBA's required eight players available because of contract tracing. The Pacers announced on Saturday that they had acquired guard Caris LeVert from the Houston Rockets for guard Victor Oladipo. The trade was reported to be in the works earlier in the week after LeVert was shipped to Houston by the Brooklyn Nets in a deal involving James Harden. However, Levert will be out indefinitely after an MRI revealed a small mass on his left kidney during a physical prior to finalizing the four-team trade. Brogdon (22.8-4.2-7.4) and Sabonis (21.9-12.8-5.8) are off to great starts but the will not have Oladipo (traded), LeVert (see above) and SF Warren (15.5 PPG), who hasn't played since Dec 29 with a foot injury. The Clippers beat the Kings without starting guard Patrick Beverley (personal reasons) and 6th-man Lou Williams (hip). It isn't clear if they will play Sunday. However, the dynamic duo of Paul George (25.3-6.1-5.2) and Kawhi (25.0-4.9-6.0) are ready to go. New additions Ibaka (11.8 & 6.2) and Batum (9.8-5.4-2.9) have started all 13 games, while Marcus Morris Sr. is back healthy, adding 18 points off the bench in Sacramento. Note that George (50.3%), Kawhi (48.3%), Ibaka (51.6%) and Batum (49.4%) all shott right around 50% on the season, while the Clippers are the NBA's best three-point shooting team (43.6%) and FT-shooting team (83.9%).This is Indiana's FOURTH road game in nine days and I'm "all over" the Clippers in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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01-16-21 | Rockets v. Spurs -6.5 | Top | 91-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the SA Spurs at 5:05 ET. The 4-6 Houston Rockets and the 6-6 San Antonio Spurs square off for the second time in three days Saturday, with the Rockets looking to build on their first road win of the season. The Rockets needed just nine angry, intense players, none of them named James Harden (24.8-5.1-10.4 or John Wall (18.6-4.7-5.1), to beat San Antonio 109-105 on Thursday in their first game since they traded Harden to Brooklyn in a blockbuster four-team deal. The trade is still being finalized and will eventually net Houston Victor Oladipo (from Indiana), Dante Exum (from Cleveland) and Rodions Kurucs (from Brooklyn, but none were in uniform on Thursday, nor will they be in the lineup on Saturday. What's more, Wall, Gordon (14.3) and House (7.5 & 4.5) are at best, game-time decisions . The Spurs returned home from an impressive 4-1 road to take on the Rockets Thursday night and led 99-90 with 4:39 to play but the Rockets outscored the Spurs 19-6 the rest of the way. Christian Wood (23.1 PPG and 10.1 RPG on the season) had 27 points and grabbed 15 rebounds. The Spurs wasted a career-high 29 points from Keldon Johnson (14.8 & 7.3), who is one of SEVEN Spurs averaging in double digits. Guards DeRozan (20.4-5.5-7.0) and Murray (15.7-7.1-5.4) lead the way. I refuse to overthink this. "The Rockets had something to prove, and they played like it," Spurs guard Lonnie Walker IV said. "They felt disrespected. That energy and animosity was built up inside of them. They were definitely ready to play." Added head coach Gregg Popovich, "It's got nothing to do with defense, offense -- it has to do with between the ears, being ready to play. We had four or five guys who were out to lunch." Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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01-15-21 | Mavs v. Bucks -6 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Conference Game of the Month is on the Mil Bucks at 7:35 ET. Luka Doncic collected 34 points, 13 rebounds, nine assists and a career-high four blocks in Dallas' 104-93 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday, leading the Mavericks to their FOURTH straight victory. More good news came in the form of Kristaps making four 3-pointers to highlight his 16-point performance in his season debut. The 7-foot-3 Porzingis (20.4 & 9.5 LY) was playing for the first time since tearing his meniscus in his right knee during the Mavericks' playoff setback to the Los Angeles Clippers back in August. The now 6-4 Mavs travel to Milwaukee on Friday to take on the Bucks, who have had the league's best record in each of the last two regular seasons. Milwaukee opened 2-3 this season but enters this game having won SIX of seven to reach 8-4 on the season. It's GREAT news that Porzingis is back to join Doncic (27.4-9.6-8.3) but here's what the injury list looks like for the Mavericks. Maxi Kleber: out (health and safety protocols), Jalen Brunson: out (health protocols), Dorian Finney-Smith: out (health protocols), Dwight Powell: out (health protocols), Josh Richardson: out (health protocols). Going down the line. Kleber is averaging 7.4 & 5.3, Brunson 11.1, Finney-Smith 9.3 & 5.0, Powell 5.0 & 3.6 and Richardson 13.8. The two-time NBA Most Valuable Player Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 26.2-10.1-5.5 and SF Middleton (21.6-6.3-5.7) is off to a terrific start. Jrue Holiday has been a big addition (no one misses Bledsoe), averaging 15.2 PPG and 5.0 APG. The 6-10 Portis (11.8 & 7.8) has also been a strong addition, while returning guard DiVincenzo (10.7 & 4.2) and center Brook Lopez (9.2 & 4.8) have both started all 12 games. Milwaukee may be "just" 8-4 and only owns a 6-6 ATS mark but the Bucks own the NBA's best point-differential at plus-11.4 PPG. That is as good an indicator as any as to the strength of a team. Lay the points here, against a Dallas team nowhere near 100%! Good luck...Larry |
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01-14-21 | Warriors v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 104-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. The Golden St Warriors lost K.D. to free agency last season and Klay Thompson to injury and went 15-50, the worst record in the league. Thompson again re-injured himself before the start of the current season (Achilles this time) and will miss a second straight season, All things considered, the Warriors' 6-5 start isn't bad. The Denver Nuggets have had an uneven start to this year, after coming out of the gates last season with a 12-2 record. Injuries and COVID-19 protocols have been a major factor, as the Nuggets return home with a 5-6 record to host Golden St. Without Thompson and with Durant in Brooklyn, teams are focused on stopping Curry but Steph has averaged 27.8-5.1-6.4. Wiggins (17.9 & 4.8), a former No. 1 overall pick, has found a home in San Francisco plus James Wiseman (2nd pick of the 2020 Draft) has avenged 10.6 & 6.4). FA acquisition Oubre (10.8 & 5.5) has disappointed and after missing some early games, Green has returned to average a modest 4.4-5.1-6.6. He looks nowhere-near the 'force' he once was. Denver center Jokic (24.3-10.9-10.6) has been great but Michael Porter Jr. (19.5 & 6.8) has missed SEVEN games due to issues with the coronavirus, and his return last week was delayed after sitting out three games. Hours before he was to return against Dallas he was ruled out with what coach Michael Malone said Tuesday was due to COVID. The Nuggets were also without Gary Harris (10.6) on Tuesday for personal reasons, a defensive presence that would have helped in the loss to the Nets. Denver had opened its road trip 2-0 but couldn't hold an 18-point lead at Brooklyn. Obviously, Porter and Harris (team's best perimeter defender) are missed but the Nuggets still own excellent depth. Murray (19.7) was terrific in last year's 'bubble' and swingman Barton is back healthy averaging 11.6-4.3-2.8. The 6-8 Green comes off the bench to average 11.4 & 6.4 in about 20 minutes and backup PG Morris (11.4 & 3.2) is a quality reserve. Curry's been held to just 31 points combined in the last two games so watch out but Denver is a VERY good team, even with some missing starters. The Nuggets play their next three games at home and can kick-start their season with some good play. The Warriors are on the road for the FIRST time since Dec 29, coming off a SEVEN-game homestand! I say it's a Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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01-13-21 | Blazers v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 132-126 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Underdog of the Month is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals two seasons ago but last year needed a strong run 'in the bubble' to sneak into the postseason. Led by 'Bubble' MVP Lillard, the Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers in the first round but after a 100-93 upset in Game 1, Portland lost FOUR in a row. The Blazers have won THREE straight and are 6-4 as they welcome the Sacramento Kings to Moda Center (I miss the Rose Garden) on Wednesday. Luke Walton begins his second season with the Kings, having gone 31-41 in last year's pandemic-shortened season. Walton's in good company, as the Kings opened this season on a run of 14 consecutive losing seasons and non-playoff appearances. Just a thought. Think Sacramento fans feel that it may have been a mistake to fire Rick Adelman after EIGHT straight winning and playoff seasons because he was never able to deliver an NBA championship? Probably a rhetorical question, right? 5-6 Sacramento's starting-five are all averaging in double digits, led by the Kings' excellent guard duo. PG Fox (18.3 & 5.4 APG) and Hield (14.7 & 4.2) lead the way, while three Sacramento frontcourt players are producing as well. The Kings don't have a true center, as that frontcourt trio includes 6-8 SF Barnes (17.9 & 6.9) plus 6-8 PF Holmes (13.2 & 7.7) and 6-11 PF Bagley (12.7 & 8.0). Rookie PG Haliburton ((12,1 & 5.3 APG) from Iowa St has stepped right in and looks like he'll be a quality NBA player. More depth is provided by four players chipping in between 6.4 and 7.8 PPG. Speaking of backcourts, Portland believes it owns the NBA's best in Lillard and McCollum. McCollum is off to a great start, leading Portland in scoring (28.1 PPG), while adding 4.1 RPG and 5.0 APG. Lillard's numbers are slightly down (26.1-4.9-6.4) but the fact that one can say that with a straight face, proves what type of player he is. Portland expected to be healthier this season plus acquired Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. to shore up defense. Neither Covington (6.6 & 6.0) nor Jones (6.4 & 3.5) have been as good as hoped for, with both players starting all games. The problem has been no player is even HALF as much as either McCollum or Lillard. Carmelo Anthony (13.0) has added a scoring 'punch' off the bench, as have backup center Kanter (11.2 & 9.3) and guard Trent (10.8). Starting center Nurkic (9.5 & 7.2) has underperformed and is currently listed at day-to-day (quad) while PF Collins (ankle) has yet to play a game this season. The Blazers routed the Kings 125-99 this past Saturday and that memory is still fresh in the Kings' memory. Sacramento enters the rematch with a bit of momentum, after producing a convincing 127-122 home win over the Indiana Pacers on Monday. Portland recovered from a 17-point deficit and still trailed by 14 with 9 1/2-minutes remaining in the game but 'escaped' with a 112-11 home win over Toronto (NBA-worst record of 2-8 ) on Monday. no comeback here, as the Kings get some quick 'revenge.' Good luck...Larry |
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01-09-21 | Suns v. Pacers -3 | Top | 125-117 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Game of the Month is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. No one was quite sure that the Suns' 8-0 SU & ATS run in the Orlando bubble would carry over to the 2020-21 season, as the Suns opened the regular season having not made the postseason since the 2009-10 season. Phoenix showed it was serious about ending its playoff drought by acquiring 10-time All-Star point guard Chris Paul from the Thunder. The Pacers had a solid season last year but got swept by the red-hot Miami heat in the playoffs. Both teams have looked good early on, with the Suns taking a 6-3 record into this game with the 6-2 Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse The Suns are coming off a 110-105 overtime loss to Detroit on Friday night but have looked like a solid playoff contender so far. PG Paul (13.0-4.9-8.3) is doing what's expected of him and while Booker's (21.7-3.3-4.4) are down slightly from the last two seasons (he's averaged 26.6 PPG in each of the last two), no one is worried. The 6-11 Ayton (18.2 & 7.5 in 38 games last season) is currently the team's second-leading scorer (13.4) and leading rebounder (11.4), while two former first-round picks are coming into their own. The 6-6 Bridges is adding 13.1 & 5.7 plus the the 6-8 Johnson 12.8 & 7.00. SF Crowder was an off-season addition (like Paul) and is averaging 10.9 & 4.4. Indiana SF Warren became a big time score "in the bubble" but is currently sidelined (was averaging 15.5 PPG). Malcolm Brogdon has turned in career-high scoring performances in each of his last two games at home. He boasts team-best averages in points (23.6) and assists (7.0), has padded those numbers by averaging totals of 29.7 and 8.3, respectively, over the last three games. He's had 33- and 35-point performances in his last two at home. Sabonis (20.8-11.4-6.4) is now a bonafide All Star and Oladipo (20.4-6.0-4.3) looks to be back at full-strength, giving Indiana THREE 20-point scorers. Center Turner is averaging 11.9-5.5-4.1 BPG) plus SF McDermott (10.9) and guard Holiday (10.5) add excellent depth. I would have preferred the Suns coming off a win last night at Detroit but this remains a tough spot, playing at Indiana team off a game the previous night, where the Suns haven't won since Nov 18, 2016. Good luck...Larry |
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01-08-21 | Jazz v. Bucks -6 | Top | 131-118 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET. Milwaukee has had the NBA's best record in each of the last two seasons but did not make it to The Finals either time. Milwaukee's 130-115 home victory over Detroit on Wednesday ups the Bucks' record to 4-0 home, even while playing in an empty arena because of COVID-19 restrictions. However, the Bucks are just 1-3 on the road, leaving them with a modest 5-3 overall record (THREE teams from the East have six wins and Philly has seven). The 4-4 Utah Jazz will visit Fiserv Forum on Friday, coming off a game in MSG in which they blew an 18-point lead early in the second half of a 112-100 loss to the New York Knicks on Wednesday night. The Jazz sputtered on offense and defense in the third quarter and eventually the Knicks took control in the final minutes, scoring 68 points in the second half. The Jazz don't lack for talent with SIX players averaging in double digits. Guards Mitchell (21.3-3.6-5.0) and Conley (17.4-4.1-5.1) start, while Clarkson (15.5) comes off the bench. Center Gobert is averaging a double-double at 13.9 & 13.1. The Bucks are led by forwards Antetokounmpo (26.1-10.8-5.4) and Middleton (21.1-6.1-6.1) plus newcomers Jrue Holiday (14.8-4.1-5.4) and Bobby Portis (11.4 & 8.0) have made an immediate impact. Both teams have excellent depth. Defensive lapses and strings of careless turnovers are becoming a recurring problem for Utah. The Jazz have been roasted on a regular basis by hot-shooting guards this season and teams are no longer fearing Rudy Gobert around the basket as they have in past seasons. It all adds up to a team that has NOT held an opponent under 100 points so far this season and has allowed 116 points per game in its four losses (lost by an average of 15.5 PPG). Yes, Milwaukee is a modest 5-3 but take note that the Bucks own the best point-differential of any NBA team at plus-13.7, 4.9 PPG above the next beat team. Milwaukee averages a league-best 125.3 PPG, while shooting 50.5% from the floor, including 43.7% on threes (both percentages also rank No. 1 in the NBA). W-I-P-E-O-U-T Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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01-07-21 | Mavs v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 124-117 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Western Game of the Month is on the Den Nuggets at 10:05 ET. Luka Doncic (33-16-11) recorded his first triple-double of the season in Dallas' road win at Houston on Monday night, a day after sitting out a loss to the Bulls in Chicago. Nothing Doncic does these days is a surprise. After all, in four of his other five games, he has averaged 28 points, 9.0 rebounds and 6.7 assists. The problem for Dallas so far has been the absence of Porzingis, who averaged last season. The 3-4 Mavs head to Denver to take on the 3-4 Nuggets tonight, as both teams look to get their respective seasons back on track. The Mavericks are coming off a playoff appearance in last season's Orlando bubble, which has raised expectations for this season. Denver knows all about high expectations after its run to the Western Conference finals in the bubble. Doncic is joined by two other double digit scorers in Hardaway (17.0 & 4.0) and Richardson (13.7). Denver's Nikola Jokic is playing at an MVP level, averaging a triple-double this season, joining Washington's Russell Westbrook as the only players to do that early in the season. The 7-footer actually leads the NBA in assists (11.9 per game), is fifth in rebounding (11.7) and 16th in scoring (24.1). Only Westbrook and Oscar Robertson have averaged a triple-double for an entire season, but Jokic has that capability. Unlike the Mavs, the Nuggets have great depth with PG Murray (22.2) coming off a breakout performance in last season' playoffs. Porter (19.5 & 6.8) moved into the starting lineup this season but hasn't played since Dec 29 but is listed as probable for tonight's game. Excellent swingman Barton (11.3-4.7-3.0) is back healthy and has played in all seven games (three starts). The Pepsi Center has always been a tough venue and even without fans, I expect the Nuggets to be an OUTSTANDING home team this season. How about starting right here, Denver? That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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01-06-21 | Raptors v. Suns -3 | Top | 115-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pho Suns at 9:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors were the 2019 NBA champions and last season, entered the postseason as the East's No. 2 seed with a 53-19 record, despite losing Kawhi Leonard to the Clippers as a free agent. Note that the Raptors' record last season put them just 2 1/2-games back of the Bucks and was a half-game BETTER than the West's No. 1 seed, and eventual NBA champion Lakers! How QUICKLY things can change. The Raptors lost Monday night at their temporary home in Tampa 126-114, falling to 1-5. They now open a four-game Western Conference swing Wednesday night at the 5-2 Phoenix Suns, who are enjoying their best start since the 2009-10 season. I'm pretty sure most (all?) remember that the Suns surprised all with their 8-0 SU & ATS performance in the Orlando 'bubble' to end last season. The Raptors started well Monday against Boston and led by as many as 13 during the first quarter but the Celtics dominated in the second quarter (38-14) and by the fourth quarter, Boston led by as many as 26. Fred VanVleet (21.8-5.5-5.5) has been one of the bright spots for the Raptors and scored 35 points Monday (has reached at least 25 in three consecutive games). Kyle Lowry (18.7-4.5-7.7) gives Toronto an All-Star backcourt but breakout star Siakam has struggled this season. "We've got to get these guys playing to their capabilities," Raptors head coach Nick Nurse said. "I think they're better players than that, so we as coaches, and our leaders of our team, need to. ... get these guys together and get them playing." The Suns haven't made the postseason since the 2009-10 but acquired 10-time All-Star point guard Chris Paul from the Thunder in hopes of ENDING that drought. He is teamed with All-Star shooting guard Devin Booker, who has averaged 26.6 PPG in each of the past two seasons. Phoenix also added veteran forward Jae Crowder (VERY underrated) in addition to Paul and are hoping that 6-11 Ayton (18.2 & 7.5 in 38 games last season) will stay healthy all season. SIX players are averaging in double digits. Booker's scoring (21.1-4.1-4.4) is down but Paul has stepped into his role of team-leader averaging 8.3 APG plus has added 13.4 PPG. Ayton has opened by averaging a double-double (13.7 & 10.7) plus as noted above, Crowder (10,0 & 4.7) is underrated. The 6-8 Cameron Johnson averaged just 8.8 PPG as a rookie (No. 1 pick from North Carolina in 2019) but is up 12.7 PPG to start this season. The team's No. 1 pick from 2018, Villanova's 6-6 Bridges, is adding 14.1 & 5.6 after averaging 8.7 PPG his first two seasons. I'm not so sure Toronto is going to get things turned around soon with no true home court for at least HALF the season. The Raptors' 1-5 record is their worst start since they lost their first NINE games of the 2005-06 season. The Suns lost 112-107 at home to the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday but after trailing by 31 points, got back in the game late. "I love the way we scrapped and battled," Suns head coach Monty Williams said. "We know we can beat that team because we've done it before. We've just got to get off to a better start than we did tonight." The 5-2 Suns are enjoying their best seven-game opening to a season since they were 6-1 in 2009-10, the last time the franchise made the postseason. Phoenix is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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01-04-21 | Pacers v. Pelicans -1 | Top | 118-116 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on the NO Pelicans at ET. The 4-2 Indiana Pacers and the 4-2 New Orleans Pelicans meet tonight in New Orleans in a East vs West. The Pacers opened 3-0 but have lost TWO of three since, while the Pelicans come in off back-to-back wins. The Pacers come in off a loss to Boston, a win over Cleveland and a loss to the Y Knicks, all at home. This marks just the team's second road game of the season and first since December 26. The Pelicans routed the Thunder 113-80 in OKC (Dec 31) and then on Saturday night, blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter before battling back to edge Toronto 120-116. Indiana's Brogdon (22.2-4.0-6.3) is off to a great plus PF Sabonis (20.8-11.3-6.7) and Oladipo (20.0-5.6-4.4) are both healthy and looking like the All Stars they've become. SF Warren (15.2) is out with a foot injury but center Turner (12.7-6.2-3.7 BPG) and 6th-man McDermott (11.7 & 4.2) have both played well. For New Orleans, Ingram (24.0-6.8-5.3) gets better by the game and of course Zion (19.7 & 8.2) gets as much coverage (hype) as any player in the league. The Pelicans have added guard Bledsoe (12.4 & 4.2 APG) and center Adams (10.0 & 9.0) this season plus Lonzo Ball (12.3-4.5-4.5) and Hart (9.0 & 8.2) joined the team last season along with Ingram in the A.D. trade. What I like most about New Orleans in the early going is the team's defense. New Orleans has held opponents to 102.0 PPG (3rd) on 43.1%) shooting (4th). "The Price is Right" in this one. Take the home team. Good luck...Larry |
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01-01-21 | Blazers v. Warriors +4 | Top | 123-98 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals two seasons ago but last year needed a strong run 'in the bubble' to sneak into the postseason. Led by 'Bubble' MVP Lillard, the Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers in the first round but after a 100-93 upset in Game 1, Portland lost FOUR in a row. As for the Golden St Warriors, after FIVE consecutive trips to the NBA Finals (3-2), the Warriors finished with an NBA-worst 15-50 record (you know the reasons why). These Western Conference rivals have gone head-to-head in the playoffs in THREE of the past five seasons and are scheduled to play two games in three days, both in San Francisco. Portland has opened 2-2 against a tough schedule that has featured all Western Conference playoff teams from last season. The Trail Blazers got veteran forward Carmelo Anthony back from COVID-19 issues when made his season debut in Wednesday's 128-105 road loss to the Clippers (had 125 points in 25 minutes). That followed a 115-107 win at Staples Center against the Lakers two nights before. Portland is led by its dynamic guard duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. The Blazers also brought back Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony to give the Blazers some scoring punch off the bench when Lillard and McCollum aren't on the floor. Notably, Jusuf Nurkic and Rodney Hood are back after serious injuries kept one or the other off the floor for lengthy stretches last season. Hood re-signed with the Blazers as a free agent during the offseason. Portland acquired Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. to shore up defense. However, Lillard (23.0 PPG) is off to a slower than expected start, shooting just 40%, including 28.9% on threes. McCollum has been great, averaging 28.0-3.5-6.3, while shooting 44.3% and 47.8% on threes! Nurkic (9.8 & 7.5) has started slow but Kanter has added 11.5 & 10.2 as a backup center. Neither Covington (5.5 & 5.3) nor Jones (6.5 & 3.8) have started well. The Warriors started the season with blowout losses at Brooklyn and Milwaukee but with road wins at Chicago and Detroit. Tonight, Golden St becomes the LAST team in the NBA to host a home opener. Golden State was at its season-best both offensively and defensively in Tuesday's 116-106 win at Detroit, shooting 50 percent from the floor and limiting the Pistons to 38 percent. It's NO surprise that Steph Curry has been the driving force in the Warriors' offensive improvement. He averaged 19.5 points and shot 4-for-20 on three-pointers against the Nets and Bucks, games in which Golden State was held to 99 points apiece. However, Curry made 10 of his 24 threes, while averaging 33.5 PPG, as the Warriors scored 129 points against the Bulls and 116 against the Pistons. Somewhat surprising is that the Warriors' No. 1 pick, James Wiseman, scored 37 points and added 14 rebounds in the team's two losses but just 13 points and nine rebounds in the two wins (how does that make sense?). All things considered, Golden State head coach Steve Kerr is happy where his team sits. "I think coming into this trip, when the season schedule came out, we all looked at it and we all thought if we could go 2-2, that'd be a really successful trip," he said after the win in Detroit. "Especially given the length of our offseason and everything going on with our team: Draymond being out, Draymond missing camp, all that." The good news is that Draymond Green expects to play for the first time after he missed the first four games following a positive coronavirus test and a subsequent strained right foot. He's a defensive ace and makes a HUGE difference. As noted, it's Golden State's FIRST home game and it comes on the FIRST day of a much-needed "New Year." Expect the home dog to 'bark' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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12-31-20 | Suns v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 106-95 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. The Phoenix Suns surprised all with their 8-0 SU & ATS performance in the Orlando 'bubble' to end last season and made a key offseason move designed to put an end to the team's 10-season playoff drought. The Suns acquired 10-time All-Star point guard Chris Paul from the Thunder and will pair him with All-Star shooting guard Devin Booker, who has averaged 26.6 PPG in each of the past two seasons. Phoenix also added veteran forward Jae Crowder (VERY underrated) in addition to Paul and are hoping that 6-11 Ayton (18.2 & 7.5 in 38 games last season) will stay healthy all season. The Utah Jazz are well aware that only a FEW plays separated the Jazz from a potential run to the 2020 Western Conference Finals in what turned into first-round loss to the Nuggets (Jazz led the series 3-1, then lost THREE in a row!). Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert both agreed to contract extensions before the new season and Jordan Clarkson re-signed with Utah on a four-year deal after emerging as the team's sixth man last season. Bringing back Derrick Favors represented the biggest free agent addition for the Jazz. Favors spent 8 1/2 seasons in Utah before being traded to New Orleans a year ago. The Suns opened with a home win over Dallas but then lost by three points at Sacramento. However, they rebounded to beat the Kings (again in Sacramento) and then routed the Pelicans at home. Phoenix looks to win three in a row for the first time since ending the 2019-20 season with that eight-game winning streak in the NBA bubble this summer. SIX players are averaging in double digits, although Booker's scoring (19.0-4.8-3.5) is down about a 'TD' per game. Paul has stepped into his role of team-leader averaging 9.5 APG plus has added 11.8 PPG. Ayton has opened by averaging a double-double (11.5 & 11.8) plus as noted above, Crowder (11.5 & 5.5) is underrated. The 6-8 Cameron Johnson averaged just 8.8 PPG as a rookie (No. 1 pick from North Carolina)but is up 15.5 PPG to start this season. The team's No. 1 pick from 2018, Villanova's 6-6 Bridges, is adding 15.5 & 6.0, after averaging 8.7 PPF his first two seasons. However, the Suns have nothing on the Jazz when it comes to frontline players or in the depth department. Mitchell (20.3 & 5.0 APG) is not off to a strong start but NO ONE is worried. The good news is that PG Conley (19.3-6.3-5.0) IS off to a strong start, as is 6th-man Clarkson (18.0 &n 4.7) and center Gobert (16.7 & 14.3). Bogdanovich (17.7 & 5.23) gives Utah FIVE players averaging 15-plus points. Starting guard O'Neale (4.7 & 8.7) is one gritty player plus PF Favors (7.0 & 5.3) is thrilled to be back in SLC. No team wants to travel on New Year's Eve and surely not in "The Year of COVID." The Jazz are 2-1 but lost their lone home game to the T-wolves. Enough of that. I expect a VERY comfortable Jazz win! Good luck...Larry |
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12-30-20 | Hawks v. Nets -6.5 | Top | 141-145 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. The Atlanta Hawks missed the playoffs for the THIRD straight season when it finished 20-47 but Trae Young increased his scoring average from 19.1 PPG in his rookie season to 29.6 PPG in his 'sophomore' season. When free agency began, the Hawks were among the more aggressive teams, adding Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rajon Rondo, and Danilo Gallinari to join Young and Clint Capela, who was acquired from Houston at last season's trade deadline. The Hawks have not been at full health in the early going but they are averaging 124.7 PPG (2nd-best) in opening 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. They'll attempt to improve to 4-0 Wednesday night when they visit the Brooklyn Nets for the first of two consecutive games (something new this season due to COVID protocols). The Nets signed Kevin Durant as a free agent prior to the 2019-20 season knowing he wouldn't be ready until the 2020-21 season. The Nets opened the season impressively by getting big games from stars Durant and Kyrie Irving in nationally televised blowout wins over Golden State and Boston. However, Brooklyn has followed up those wins with a two-point loss at Charlotte on Sunday, followed by a 116-111 overtime loss at home to Memphis on Monday. The Nets played Monday after learning Spencer Dinwiddie would be lost for the season due to a knee injury. The Nets also rested Durant and Irving for the first time this season against Memphis, after the duo played 95 minutes apiece in the first three games. Young (34.0-4.0-7.3) has been great and this season will be surrounded by a talented cast of characters. The 6-9 Collins (averaged 21.6 & 10.1 plus 19.5 & 9.8 the last two seasons) and has opened averaging 14.0 & 6.3 his first three games. Huerter (13.7) is in his third season plus second-year pros Hunter (12.3 & 6.7) and Reddish (10.3 & 5.3) both look good. Bogdanovic (13.0 & 7.0) has been a quality scorer for years, as has been Gallinari. However, Gallinari has played just ONE game and is out here with a foot injury. PG Rondo finally saw action Monday (12 & 8 assists), as did center Capela (7 & 9). No doubt that Dinwiddie (20.6-3.5-6.8) will be missed but the Kryrie (29.3-4.3-6.0) and Durant (26.7-4.0-3.) make the Nets a legitimate contender in the East. LeVert is chipping in 17.0-4.8-5.8 and fellow guard Harris (11.5 & 4.5) is a solid NBA player. Also, don't forget about center Allen (8.3 & 11.8), who quietly comes to work each game and is HIGHLY underrated! Sure, Atlanta is 3-0 but the wins have come over a trio of opponents with a combined 3-9 record, including East teams Chicago (1-3) and Detroit (0-4). The Nets took three of four meetings last season from Atlanta and are 12-2 in the last 14 meetings. Both Kyrie (shooting 61.1%) and Kevin (53.2%) got their 'rest' and both are back here and the result will be a Brooklyn W-I-P-E-O-U-T! Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 144-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 7:35 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off an embarrassing loss Sunday night, falling 130-110 to the NY Knicks. The Bucks have now opened 1-2 and try to get on the winning track tonight in Miami against the Heat. One would think ALL the motivation lies with Milwaukee, as the Heat knocked the Bucks out of last year's postseason four games-to-one! What's more, Miami may be without Jimmy Butler, who is doubtful with a sprained right ankle. SF Middleton is off to a great start, averaging 26.7-7.3-6.0. Of course, Milwaukee's best player (the NBA's as well?) is Giannis, who checks in averaging 25.7-13.0-3.7. Center Brook Lopez (16.8 & 6.4 in his career) is off to a slow start (7.0 & 3.0) but Jrue Holiday has been an excellent addition, averaging 15.0-4.7-4.7. Adebayo had a breakout year last season and leads Miami in scoring (21.0) and rebounding (7.5) after two games. Vet PG Dragic has welcomed his role of coming off the bench and is averaging 19.0 PPG and a team-high 8.0 APG. Last year's 1st-round pick from Kentucky, Herro, is settling in as a starter (12.0-4.0-3.5) plus this year's 1st-rounder, the 6-8 Achiuwa from Memphis, is averaging 9.5 PPG in just 16 1/2-minutes per game. Butler has ankle issues and is averaging 11.5-6.0-4.0. Butler missed the second half of Miami's home-opening win against the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday and Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra announced Monday afternoon that his star swingman is doubtful for this game with the Bucks. A key for the Bucks will be getting more secondary scoring beyond their two stars, while also doing a much better job on defense. Milwaukee's been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. Then, the Bucks seemed disinterested in the eight-game conclusion to the regular season in the 'bubble,' then fell flat against the red-hot Heat in the second round. The Bucks lost a one-point game at Boston to open the season but "right on cue," routed the Warriors 138-99 in their next game. Losing to the sad-sack Knicks was a HUGE embarrassment plus the Heat offer great motivation after beating Milwaukee in the last season's playoffs. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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12-29-20 | Celtics -1 v. Pacers | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics blew a 17-point lead entering the fourth quarter in their season-opener against the Bucks at home (won 122-121) and then, after holding a three-point halftime lead at the "New & IMPROVED" Brooklyn Nets, got blitzed 72-41 in the second half on Christmas Day. Boston visited Indiana on Sunday to take on a Pacers team that had opened with a 121-107 Wednesday home win over the New York Knicks and followed with a convincing 125-106 road victory over the Chicago Bulls. Sunday's game saw the Pacers eke out a 108-107 victory that improved their record to 3-0 (Celtics fell to 1-2). Domantas Sabonis converted the game-winning layup with just 8.4 seconds remaining, giving the Celtics the ball back down one after he missed a free throw that would have made it a three-point play. Jayson Tatum's three-point attempt with 1.8 seconds to go clanked off the back of the rim, sealing the result. Gordon Hayward opted-out of his contract to sign with the Hornets (you will LOVE losing in Charlotte, Gordon) and Boston is still waiting for PG Kemba Walker to get healthy. However, Boston has a strong starting-five with Brown (26.0-5.0-3.7) joined in the backcourt with Smart (9.0 & 6.3 APG). Smart took the place of an injured Hayward in LY's postseason, starting 16 of 17 games and averaging 14.5-5.2-4.6. He is also the team's best defender. PF Tatum (25.0 & 8.7) blossomed into a star last season and is joined up front with Theis (5.3 & 4.0) and the newly-acquired Tristan Thompson (9.0 & 8.0). Thompson averaged a double-double in each of his last two seasons at Cleveland (10.9 & 10.2 and 12.0 & 10.1). Boston also signed PG Teague (9.3) and he's very capable of easing the pain until Walker returns (he's averaged double digits in each of his last NINE seasons!). The Pacers have a good team led by the 6-11 Sabonis (24.3-11.0.5-7.0) and the now-healthy SG Oladipo (22.0 & 5.0). SF Warren led the team in scoring last season (19.8) and has averaged 15.0 PPG after three games. Brogdon (21.3-4.7-6.3) teams with Oladipo for an outstanding backcourt plus the 6-11 Turner (9.7 & 6.7) is a solid center, who is also averaging 5.7 blocks per game! McDermott comes off the bench and has averaged 13.7 & 5.0 in the first three games. Teams playing two games in three nights against each other with both contests being held in the same city is an adjustment that's been made due to COVID-19. Maybe I'm gullible but I just DON'T see the Pacers winning back-to-back games against the Celtics but rather, it sets up as a 'PERFECT STORM.' Go Celts! Good luck...Larry |
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12-27-20 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 107-108 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Crusher is on the Bos Celtics at 8:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened its season with a 122-121 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks (blew 17-point 4th-quarter lead but avoided OT when Giannis short-armed his second FT) but then got 'rolled' by the "new and improved" Nets on Christmas Day. The Celtics held a three-point halftime lead but were blitzed 72-41 in the second half!" We know we have a lot of work to do, that's very clear," Boston head coach Brad Stevens said after the loss to the Nets. "And we know who we have to shoot for, that's good to know. I thought our guys gave a good effort at the start, and then it just got away from us in the fourth." The Indiana Pacers welcome the Celtics to Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Sunday, with the teams meeting again on Tuesday. Indiana has won its first two games, opening with a 121-107 Wednesday home win over the New York Knicks and following with a convincing 125-106 road victory over the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night. Boston has won NINE of the last 13 meetings, although the teams split two games last season. Gordon Hayward opted-out of his contract to sign with the Hornets (you will LOVE losing in Charlotte, Gordon) and Boston is still waiting for PG Kemba Walker to get healthy. However, Boston has a strong starting-five with Brown (30.0-6.5-3.5) joined in the backcourt with Smart (9.8 & 6.5). Smart took the place of an injured Hayward in LY's postseason, starting 16 of 17 games and averaging 14.5-5.2-4.6. He is also the team's best defender. PF Tatum (25.0 & 7.5) blossomed into a star last season and is joined up front with Theis (6.0 & 6.5) and the newly-acquired Tristan Thompson (10.0 & 8.0). Thompson averaged a double-double in each of his last two seasons at Cleveland (10.9 & 10.2 and 12.0 & 10.1). Boston also signed PG Teague (9.5 & 3.0 APG) who will help ease the pain until Walker returns (he's averaged double digits in each of his last NINE seasons!). The Pacers have a good team led by the 6-11 Sabonis (27.0-11.5-8.)0) and now-healthy SG Oladipo (22.0 & 5.5). SF Warren led the team in scoring last season (19.8) and has averaged 14.0 PPG after two games. Brogdon (19.5-4.5-7.0) teams with Oladipo for an outstanding backcourt plus the 6-11 Turner (9.5 & 6.5) is a solid center, who already has 12 blocked shots. McDermott comes off the bench and has averaged 12.5 & 7.0 in the first two games. The Pacers have opened 2-0 but please, the wins have come over the Knicks and Bulls, who went 21-45 and 22-43 last season, respectively. Meanwhile, the Celtics have beaten Milwaukee (best record in the NBA the last two seasons) and lost to VERY improved Nets. "The benefit of playing these two games against two great teams is we can be better, we can assess the bar, and now you know what you have to strive for," Smart told reporters. "It's a good way to test us as a team to see where we're at and where we have to get to. Like I said, there's definitely things we can clean up. It's only the second game, but we can't lose any sleep over it." I agree. Boston wins by double digits! Good luck...Larry |
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12-26-20 | Magic v. Wizards -2 | Top | 130-120 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Was Wizards at 7:05 ET. The Magic had an excellent season-opener on Wednesday in beating the defending East Champs (Miami Heat) 113-107 in Orlando. Starters Fournier (25), Gordon (20 & 7), Vucevic (15 & 11) and Fultz (15) all played well plus as he did last year, Ross scored 19 points off the bench. The Magic travel to Washington D.C. for a Saturday game with the Wizards, a team they swept 4-0 during last season, scoring at least 120 points in each game. The Wizards opened the season the same night, losing 113-107 at Philadelphia, despite Bradley Beal's 31 points and Russell Westbrook's triple-double (21-11-15) in his Washington debut. The Wizards will go only as far as their dynamic backcourt duo will take them this season but a pair of 6-10 big men are on the verge of becoming more than just "complementary" players. Bertans spent three seasons in San Antonio, averaging just 6.2 PPG, playing about 15 minutes per game. However, in his first season with Washington (2019-20), he averaged almost 30 minutes per game while averaging 15.4 PPG plus shot 42.4% on threes. Fellow big man Bryant had a breakout season last year, averaging 13.2 & 7.2 in his third NBA season. Bertans had 14 points on Wednesday and Bryant 10 & 5. "Not good enough. Honestly, I'm kind of disappointed in myself," Westbrook said after the loss at Philly. "I had some mishaps and plays where I could have been better and had a better game to try to win. I don't like moral victories at any point in my career. I always like to go out and try to win the game. I've gotta be better and I'll be better next game." Beal averaged 34.3 points in three games last season vs Orlando, including a 42-point performance in a 127-120 loss on Dec 3. Forget last season's results, the Wizards get a comfortable win in their home opener. Good luck...Larry |
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12-25-20 | Mavs v. Lakers -6 | Top | 115-138 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 8:05 ET. LBJ, A.D. and the rest of the Los Angeles Lakers opened their title defense Tuesday night and lost at Staples Center to co-tenants, the LA Clippers. The Lakers celebrated their NBA title with a ring ceremony (often a jinx as I pointed in taking AND winning with the Clippers!), then trailed by as many as 22 points early on against the Clippers before rallying but eventually losing 116-109. Luka Doncic led the Mavericks to the playoffs last season to end the franchise's three-season absence but Dallas lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. The Mavs opened their season Wednesday night but lost 106-102 to the Suns, who picked right up where they left off from last year's Orlando 'bubble' (Suns were 8-0 SU & ATS). Luka Doncic (who enters his third season) is being touted as an MVP candidate, after averaging 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists in 61 games last season and already has 25 triple-doubles in just 133 career regular-season games. Doncic had a "typical" game Wednesday night, scoring 32 points with eight rebounds and five assists. However, NO other teammate was able to score more than 12 points. Doncic is just 21 and according to him, is still working his way into shape. "It's true I'm not in my best shape," Doncic said. "I will get there for sure. But, you know, I've never been a muscular guy, so what can I say?" After the game, head coach Rick Carlisle added, "He's still getting his game legs under him. That will get there. But he understands the game as well as any 21-year-old I've ever been around. He'll make the adjustments that are necessary." With Doncic's sidekick (the 7-3 Kristaps Porzingis) still recovering from right knee surgery, stemming from tearing his meniscus in mid-August during the series with the Clippers, I'll be VERY wary of playing on the Mavs in the early going. Porzingis isn't expected back until January. Many believe (and count me among them) that the defending champs have improved during the offseason with the additions of reigning Sixth Man of the Year and former Clippers big man Montrezl Harrell, the Sixth Man runner-up in guard Dennis Schroder, veteran center Marc Gasol and guard Wesley Matthews. Schroder started against the Clippers and had a line of 14-12-8, while Harrell came off the bench to add 17 & 10. Kuzma, who just signed an extension with LA, came off the bench to score 15 points. Anyone seriously worried that LBJ and A.D. won't hold up their end this season? This is a great opportunity for the Lakers to quickly wipe out the sour taste left by Tuesday's season-opening loss and expect the Mavs to play the perfect foil! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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12-25-20 | Pelicans v. Heat -3.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 103 | 3 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on the Mia Heat at 12:05 ET. New Orleans head coach Stan Van Gundy will be back on familiar turf Friday when his Pelicans face the Miami Heat, the team that gave him his start coaching in the league in 1995. The Pelicans won their season opener on Wednesday, 113-109 at Toronto (Raptors are playing their 'home' games in Tampa). Ingram just missed a triple-double (24-9-11) with 'King' Zion adding 15 & 10. The game also marked the Pelicans debuts of Eric Bledsoe (18 points) and Steven Adams (eight points, a game-high four steals and two blocks). While the Pelicans were beating the Raptors, the defending East champs were losing 113-107 in Orlando. "We have to be more precise," Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra said when asked about his team's 22 turnovers against Orlando. "Our spacing has to be a lot better, and we have to be willing to work the offense." The turnovers came primarily from Bam Adebayo (seven), Jimmy Butler (six) and Tyler Herro (four). Then again, Adebayo had 25 & 11, Butler 17-7-7 and Herro, who blossomed into a start in last year's 'bubble,' started and had a line of 13-6-4. Goran Dragic had 20 points and seven assists, continuing his role as super sub. "I told 'Spo' that however he wants to use me, I'm here for the team," said Dragic, a 2018 All-Star back in his days as a starter. "I'm already feeling comfortable with this (backup) role." New Orleans shot 52.5% vs Toronto but DON'T expect a repeat performance here against an excellent defensive team like the Heat. The Heat actually made 50.6% from the floor in the loss at Orlando and I'm looking for them to bounce back in a big way here. The Heat opened last season's playoff run 7-0 SU & ATS and finished 14-7 SU and with a playoff-best 16-7 ATS record. Heat 'came together' last postseason and will be a tough team to beat all of this season, especially at home and off a loss no less! 'Cheap' price. A win over ex-head coach Van Gundy would be 'icing on the cake.' Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-20 | Mavs v. Suns | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pho Suns at 10:35 ET. The Phoenix Suns surprised all with their 8-0 SU & ATS performance in the Orlando 'bubble' to end last season and made a key offseason move designed to put an end to the team's 10-season playoff drought. The Suns acquired 10-time All-Star point guard Chris Paul from the Thunder and will pair him with All-Star shooting guard Devin Booker, who has averaged 26.6 PPG in each of the past two seasons. Phoenix added veteran forward Jae Crowder (VERY underrated) in addition to Paul and are hoping that 6-11 Ayton (18.2 & 7.5 in 38 games last season) will stay healthy all season. Luka Doncic (who enters his third season) is being touted as an MVP candidate. He averaged 28.8 points, 9.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists in 61 games last season and already has 25 triple-doubles in just 133 career regular-season games. He led the Mavericks to the playoffs last season to end the franchise's three-season absence but Dallas lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in the first round. Doncic is just 21 and according to him, is still working his way into shape. "It's true I'm not in my best shape," Doncic said. "I will get there for sure. But, you know, I've never been a muscular guy, so what can I say?" It's also NOT good news for Dallas sidekick, the 7-3 Kristaps Porzingis, isn't ready for the start of the season. He is still recovering from right knee surgery, stemming from tearing his meniscus in mid-August during the series with the Clippers. The Suns went 3-1 against the Mavericks last season, including two victories in the bubble, 117-115 on Aug 2 and 128-102 on Aug 13. By year's end, it's likely that the Mavs will be a better team than the Suns but that's NOT the case here in Game 1 for both teams. Good luck...Larry |
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12-23-20 | Jazz v. Blazers -1 | Top | 120-100 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Northwest) is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. Utah Jazz are well aware that only a FEW plays separated the Jazz from a potential run to the 2020 Western Conference Finals and what turned into first-round loss to the Nuggets (Jazz led the series 3-1, then lost THREE in a row!). The Portland Trail Blazers made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals two seasons ago but last year needed a strong run 'in the bubble' to sneak into the postseason. Led by 'Bubble' MVP Lillard, the Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers in the first round but after a 100-93 upset in Game 1, Portland lost FOUR in a row. Both teams should be solid contenders this season. Donovan Mitchell (24.0-4.4-4.3) and Rudy Gobert (15.1 & 13.5) both agreed to contract extensions before the new season and Jordan Clarkson (15.6) re-signed with Utah on a four-year deal after emerging as the team's sixth man last season. Bringing back Derrick Favors represented the biggest free agent addition for the Jazz. Favors spent 8 1/2 seasons in Utah before being traded to New Orleans a year ago. "We need to hold ourselves to a high standard," Mitchell told the Deseret News. "You know, we blew a 3-1 lead. We lost in the first round, and there's no time for that. There's no time for slow starts." Added Gobert after signing his new deal, "I'm here to stay, and I'm here to WIN a championship. I'm here to win with my brothers, I'm here to win with coach (Quin Snyder) and I'm here to win with you, Utah." Portland is led by its dynamic quard duo of Damian Lillard and CJ MCcollum, who averaged 30.0-4.3-87.0 and 22.2-4.2-4.4 last season, respectively. They also brought back Enes Kanter and Carmelo Anthony to give the Blazers some scoring punch off the bench when Lillard and McCollum aren't on the floor. Notably, Jusuf Nurkic and Rodney Hood are back after serious injuries kept one or the other off the floor for lengthy stretches last season. Hood re-signed with the Blazers as a free agent during the offseason. Portland acquired Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr. to shore up defense. Frankly, I like BOTH teams this season but in this pre-Christmas opener, I MUCH prefer the home team which avoids traveling, ESPECIALLY at this price! Good luck...Larry |
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12-22-20 | Clippers +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
My NBA 10* 'Battle 4 LA' is on the LA Clippers at 10:05 ET. After the shortest offseason in league history, the Lakers will open defense of their NBA title by hosting the Clippers. Of course, both teams call Staples Center home. Conventional wisdom seems to be that the defending champs have improved during the offseason with the additions of reigning Sixth Man of the Year and former Clippers big man Montrezl Harrell, the Sixth Man runner-up in guard Dennis Schroder, veteran center Marc Gasol and guard Wesley Matthews. Hard to argue with the team's additions but the Lakers' success in the end will depend on the play of LBJ and A.D. James won his fourth NBA title Oct 11 when the Lakers beat the Miami Heat in six games, averaging 25.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and a league-high 10.2 assists per game during the 2019-20 regular season. Davis won his first title and averaged a team-high 26.1 points with 9.3 rebounds and finished third in the league in blocks at 2.3 per game. Davis just recently agreed to a five-year, $190 million maximum contract to stay with the defending champs. After the Clippers blew a 3-1 series lead against the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference semifinals which prevented a much-anticipated showdown with the Lakers, they parted ways with Doc Rivers, replacing him with former assistant Tyronn Lue. BTW...What makes so many think Doc Rivers is a "great" coach? The Clippers' fortunes again will depend on Kawhi Leonard (27.1 & 7.1) and Paul George (21.5 & 5.7). Like Davis, George recently signed a HUGE contract to remain with the Clippers. However, unlike A.D, George was a flop in last season's playoffs. Lou Williams averaged 18.2 points and 5.6 assists during the regular season and will again be a big part of the team. Forward Marcus Morris, guard Patrick Beverley and center Ivica Zubac are again expected to be key contributors. So is forward Serge Ibaka, who the Clippers signed as a free agent to fill the void left by Harrell. Ibaka averaged 15.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game last season with the Toronto Raptors and was part of the Toronto team of two years ago that won the NBA title (as was Kwahi). Nicolas Batum has long been a solid NBA player and joins the Clippers along with Luke Kennard, who averaged 15.8 PPG on 40% shooting on threes in a 25-game injury-filled season last year with Detroit. Here's the bottom line. It's 'Ring Night' for the Lakers and that's often been distracting for home teams plus the Lakers cruised through an abbreviated preseason 4-0, which included TWO wins over the Clippers, who lost all three preseason contests. ALL the motivation is with the Clipps tonight and I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-06-20 | Lakers -7 v. Heat | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Miami Heat reached this year's NBA Finals as the East's No. 5 to face the LA Lakers, the West's No. 1 seed. Miami is the first team seeded fifth or lower to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded New York Knicks lost to San Antonio in 1999. The last team seeded fifth or lower to win an NBA title was Houston in 1995, when it beat Orlando as the West's No. 6 seed. Miami used a 13-0 run to take a 23-10 lead midway through the opening period of Game 1 but it was ALL Lakers after that. Anthony Davis scored 34 points and added nine rebounds, while LBJ had 25 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists, as the Lakers cruised to a 116-98 win. The Lakers outrebounded Miami 54-36, led by as many as 32 points and made 15 three-pointers. Adding insult to injury, Miami PG Goran Dragic left in the second quarter with a torn plantar fascia in his left foot and PF/C Bam Adebayo left in the third quarter with a shoulder strain. LBJ scored 33 points with nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 2, while Davis made 14 of his first 15 shots on the way to 32 points, as the Lakers beat the short-handed Miami Heat 124-114 (no Dragic and Adebayo). James and Davis were the first Lakers duo to score at least 32 points in a finals game since Game 3 against New Jersey in 2002, when Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant did it. However, the Heat (still without Dragic and Adebayo) "came up big" and beat the Lakers 115-104 in Game 3. Miami's starters outscored the Lakers' starting five 89-51 and Jimmy Butler played "the game of his life," with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Butler became the 21st player to have a triple-double in the NBA Finals but it was just the third 40-point triple-double in Finals history. Now, it's time for Game 4 on Tuesday. Do we have a series? The Heat come in with a renewed sense of confidence as they look to even the best-of-seven series. "We're going to win," Heat swingman Jimmy Butler said of Game 4. "We're going to compete. We're not going to lay down; we're going to fight back in this thing and even it up 2-2." Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said of his star's big performance after Game 3, "How else do you say it other than Jimmy effing Butler," "This was a very urgent game, and he was doing it on both ends of the court. Just put his imprint on every important part of the game." Alrighty then! Meet Jimmy Butler, the incarnation of MJ. A quick reality check of his playoff history, pre-2020. He had appeared in SEVEN postseasons (for three different teams, Bulls, T-wolves and Sixers) with those teams winning THREE of 10 series, going 24-34 (.414). LBJ played a typical game in Sunday's loss (25-10-8), as he's averaging 27.7-10.7-9.0 through three games. However, the Lakers committed 10 turnovers in the first quarter alone in Game 3, one more than they had total in Game 2. They finished the contest with 20, James being responsible for eight and Anthony Davis five. Davis, after scoring 34 and 32 points in the first two games, took just NINE shots and finished with only 15 points. LA's other three starters (Howard, Green and Caldwell-Pope), combined for a pathetic11 points on 3-0f-13 shooting (23.1%). LA's complementary players have been an on-and-off situation all season but let me note that the Lakers haven't dropped back-to-back games all postseason. My bet says they don't start here vs a 'wounded' Heat team, even though Miami features "the INCOMPARABLE" Jimmy Butler. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-30-20 | Heat v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Year is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Miami Heat may be just the East's No. 5 but they are in The Finals against the LA Lakers, the West's No. 1 seed. Miami is the first team seeded fifth or lower to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded New York Knicks lost to San Antonio in 1999. The last team seeded fifth or lower to win an NBA title was Houston in 1995, when it beat Orlando as the West's No. 6 seed. The Lakers cleared enough cap space to lure LeBron James in 2018 free agency and then traded the cache of draft assets they collected in six straight trips to the lottery for Anthony Davis. Owning two of the five best players in the league has the Lakers on the verge of tying the Celtics for the most NBA titles all-time, at 17. While the Lakers own the two-best players in this series, look at the Heat's journey to The Finals. They swept the undermanned Indiana Pacers in the first round (4-0 ATS) and then KO'd two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the East-leading Milwaukee Bucks in the second round (4-1 SU & ATS) on the strength of a versatile defense and an arsenal of offensive weaponry, They then beat the equally well-balanced Celtics in the conference finals in six games (4-2 SU & ATS) by out-hustling and out-executing Boston. All FIVE starters average in double figures, led by PG Dragic (20.9-4.2-4.7), swingman Butler (30.7-5.7-4.5) and PF Adebayo (18.5-11.4-4.9). SF Crowder (12/3 & 5.7) and SG Robinson (11.5) round out the starting-five, while Kentucky rookie guard Tyler Herro (16.5) has become a playoff star coming off the bench. Switching to the Lakers, it's A.D. (28.8 & 9.3) and LBJ (26.7-10.3-8.9) plus a ever-changing cast of characters that play well one game and then disappear in the next. Kuzma is the team's first player off the bunch and is the only other Laker to average in double digits (10.5), more than two 'TDs' fewer than A.D. and LBJ. Caldwell-Pope (9.9) and Danny Green (8.1) have joined A.D. and LBJ as having started all 15 games of the playoffs LA. Caldwell-Pope, Green and Kuzma are joined by a rotating collection of Alex Caruso, Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, Markieff Morris and Rajon Rondo, not exactly the kind of supporting cast you would expect on a dominant playoff team. Both teams are 12-3 with Miami going 12-3 ATS, while the Lakers are 9-5-1 ATS. The Lakers can be a disjointed group but A.D. and LBJ are truly a 'Dynamic Duo!' Also, the Lakers are shooting an impressive 49.8% as a team and when they've been favored by six points or less in this season's playoffs, have gone 4-0-1 ATS. My NBA Game of the Year is on the LA Lakers! Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET. The Celtics dropped the first two games of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference finals against the Heat, each time blowing significant leads (14 points in Game 1 and 17 points in Game 2). However, they then won Game 3 of the series 177-106, while leading wire-to-wire. That contest was on Saturday, meaning that each team has had a three-day break heading into tonight's Game 4. Which team will be best-served by the layoff? Boston is looking to win consecutive playoff games for the first time since the start of its second-round series against the Toronto Raptors, while Miami attempts to respond to just its SECOND loss of the postseason. Knowing that Game 3 would be followed by three days off for scheduling purposes, the Celtics leaned heavily on their stars in Saturday's crucial win. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker combined for 72 points, each playing more than 40 minutes. What's more, Gordon Hayward took the court for his first game since an ankle injury sustained on Aug 17 sidelined him for more than a month, and played 31 minutes off the bench! The Celtics shot nearly 48.2 percent from the floor and outscored the Heat 60-36 in the paint, leading by as much as 20 points in the fourth quarter. Miami is an NBA-best 10-2 SU & ATS this postseason but as Jimmy Butler opined after the team's Game 3 loss, "I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently. Especially against a great team like Boston and what they bring to the table." Butler is averaging a modest 17.0 PPG through the first three games, as PF Bam Adebayo (22.0 & 10.7) and PG Goran Dragic (21.7 & 4.7 APG) have led the way. However, Miami's won with balance scoring this postseason, as all five starters are scoring in double digits plus rookie PG Herro has averaged 14.8 PPG off the bench. I believed Boston to be the better team at the start of this series, while acknowledging that terrific play of Miami up tom this point. It's "put up or shut up" time from Boston tonight (and for me, by the way)! Good luck...Larry |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 7:00 ET. No team had played better this NBA postseason than the East's No. 5 seed, the Miami Heat. The Heat were dominant through the first two rounds, going 8-1 SU & ATS. Miami's lone loss was 118-115 (OT) vs Milwaukee in Game 4, when the Heat had the Bucks 'buried' in an 0-3 'hole.' The Heat's team defense has been OUTSTANDING, as Miami has held opponents in its eight wins to an average of just 101.9 PPG. The Celtics are the East's No. 3 seed (won 48 regular season games to Miami's 44) and swept the 76ers in the first round. However, after going up 2-0 vs the Raptors in the second round, they were extended to seven games by the defending champs. The Celtics won Game 7 but only by a 'hair,' when Marcus Smart made what was a game-deciding block with just under one minute left (Boston would win, 92-87). Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals was an excellent one, as the teams made the statement, who needs the No. 1 and 2 seeds for excitement. The Celtics led the Heat by 12 points entering the final quarter and were up 14 early in the 4th. However, the Heat made a dramatic comeback and in OT, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were the heroes. Butler completed the game-winning three-point play with 12 seconds remaining but it was Adebayo's block to deny Jayson Tatum the chance to tie with 3.7 seconds left that garnered the most attention postgame. PG Dragic continued his outstanding postseason play with 29 points and SF Crowder added 22. Butler had 20-5-5 and Adebayo 18-6-9. Let's NOT ignore the performance of rookie guard Tyler Herro (Kentucky), who fell an assist shy of his first career triple-double (12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists) in 40 minutes off the bench. Boston's Tatum led the Celtics with 30 & 14 plus Smart continued his strong playoffs with 26 points in the loss. However, another poor showing by All-Star point guard Kemba Walker really hurt Boston, Walker needed 19 shots (he made just six) to get to 19 points. It was his THIRD straight game failing to reach 20 points while shooting worse than 32 percent. He was 1 of 9 from three-point range. "I'm just playing terrible, to be honest," Walker said. "Not much I can say, but I have to be better. I have to do better for this team on both ends of the floor. I have to make better decisions. I just have to make shots overall." It's only Game 2 but doesn't it feel like a "Make or Break" one for Boston. Reading the Game 1 recap on ESPN.com, it was reported that the Celtics had been 156-1 since the shot-clock era started 65 years ago -- winners of 92 straight -- when leading by 12 or more points going into the fourth quarter of a playoff game. They're now 156-2. There's no real 'gap' between these two teams but n\my bet says Boston ties it up at one-all. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The entire NBA 'world' is anticipating a Western Conference showdown between the Lakers and Clippers. Both LA teams took 3-1 leads in their respective semifinal series and the 'Battle 4 LA' seemed all but set in the Orlando 'bubble.' However, the Nuggets have so far, put that 'party' on hold. The Lakers finished off the Rockets handily in Game 5 of their series (119-96) but the Clippers have now blown back-to-back double digit leads in Games 5 and 6 of their series with Denver The Nuggets trailed by 16 points at the half in Game 5 but went on the win 111-105 and "did it again" in Game 6.The Clippers led Denver by 19 points with 22 minutes to go, only to see Denver pull away for a 111-98 victory. Denver won the third quarter 30-16 and the 4th, 34-19. LA head coach Doc Rivers was blunt after the team's Game 6 loss, saying there was 'no secret' to his team's collapses. "There's no secret like potion that something happened," Rivers said on Monday about the Clippers' two blown leads in a row. "The two things that we didn't do, clearly defensively, they shot almost 60% in the second half. The one thing that did stand out, they went to the free throw line like on every play." Denver center Jokic (26.1-9.9-5.5) and PG Murray (26.1-5.1-6.5) have led the Nuggets during the playoffs, as only PF Porter (11.8 & 6.9) joins them in double digits this postseason. In Sunday's contest, Jokic had 34 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists, while Murray had 21 points, Gary Harris added 16 and Michael Porter Jr. chipped in with 13. The Nuggets outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half. "It was just amazing," Denver head coach Michael Malone told the media after the game. "We had 11 straight stops at one point. Coming into this round they were the No. 1 offense in the playoffs, so I'm running out of adjectives, superlatives, whatever you want to call it to speak on our team because that is a tough, resilient group of you know what. I love our team." Paul George has had an uneven postseason for the Clippers but had 33 points, six rebounds and five steals in Game 6 for the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard contributed 25 points, eight boards and five assists but those numbers were below his playoff averages of 29.4-9.6-5.5. "Just gave up the lead again, pretty much," said Kawhi, who made 8 of 18 shots and 3 of 5 three-pointers. "They came down and either scored or got fouled in the third quarter, and we couldn't buy a basket. That's how they came back." So here we are in the FOURTH Game 7 of the 2020 playoffs and naturally, the Nuggets are again part of the story. Denver played two seven-game series in the 2019 playoffs (1-1) and came back from a 3-1 deficit in their first round series to oust the Jazz. The Nuggets will be trying to become the first NBA team to rally from a 3-1 deficit in back-to-back series. As Nuggets center Nikola Jokic said, "To us, Game 7 is just another game. Truthfully, the 'weight' of a Game 7 contest will weigh more heavily on the Los Angeles Clippers. They are attempting to advance to their first-ever Western Conference final and they are 0-7 in franchise history in previous attempts to get there. The "difference" this time around? The Clippers never had a player like Kawhi Leonard before. He was the Finals MVP for the Spurs in 2014 and then repeated that performance last year in leading Toronto to that franchise's first-ever NBA title. Can he lead the Clipps to the 2020 title? That's NOT the question here. However, my bet says he helps the Ciphers erase the above-mentioned 0-7 record by leading them to a double-digit win in Game 7. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Game 1 Series Opener is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. No team has played better this NBA postseason than the East's No. 5 seed, the Miami Heat. The Heat have been dominant through the first two rounds, going 8-1 SU & ATS. Miami's lone loss was 118-115 (OT) vs Milwaukee in Game 4, when the Heat had the Bucks 'buried' in an 0-3 'hole.' The Heat's team defense has been OUTSTANDING, as Miami has held opponents in its eight wins to an average if just 10.19 PPG. The Celtics are the East's No. 3 seed (won 48 regular season games to Miami's 44) and swept the 76ers in the first round. However, after going up 2-0 vs the Raptors in the second round, they were extended to seven games by the defending champs. The Celtics won Game 7 but only by a 'hair,' when Marcus Smart made what was a game-deciding block with just under one minute left (Boston would win, 92-87). All five Miami starters are averaging in double digits, led by swingman Butler (21.8-5.6-4.2), PG Dragic (21.1-4.4-4.8) and PF Adebayo (16.2-11.7-4.8), who is shooting a team-best 54.1% among the Miami's six double-digit scorers. Kentucky rookie Herro chips in 14.7 PPG off the bench. Boston hasn't "missed a beat" after Gordon Hayward went out with an injury in the team's first playoff game. Marcus Smart has started in his place and is averaging 13.1-5.5-4.2 this postseason. The team's "Big 3" of Tatum (25.3 & 10.1), Brown (21.0 & 7.6) and Walker (19.6 & 5.3) has been excellent (Note: Walker's had his ups and down). The Celtics 'rode' their stars hard down the stretch of their semifinal series with Toronto, with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart each playing north of 40 minutes in the final two contests. However, the Celtics haven't played since Friday, so fatigue should NOT be ANY factor. As for Miami, the Heat have been idle since Sep 8. Could the layoff 'cool' them off (couldn't resist that one!)? I'm on Boston in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-20 | Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* 2nd Round Game of the Year is on the Bos Celtics at 9:00 ET. The Toronto Raptors won the franchise's first-ever NBA title behind the spectacular play AND leadership of Kawhi Leonard. However, Kawhi left for the Clippers and starting SG Danny Green left for the Lakers. The cupboard was hardly left bare though, plus Nick Nurse won Coach of the Year honors in 2019, his FIRST as an NBA head coach. The Raptors finished this year's interrupted regular season with a 53-19 record, giving them the East's second-seed (note: Toronto owned a better regular season record than ALL Western Conference teams. The Raptors drew a tough second round matchup in the third-seed Celtics, who have given Toronto "more trouble" this season than ANY other team. Toronto promptly fell behind 0-2 in its best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal against Boston and few would have imagined the series going seven games. However, that's EXACTLY where we are as of Friday. Toronto 'stole' Game 3 with a winning three-pointer at the buzzer and then took Game 4, 100-93. An angered Boston team routed the Raptors111-89 in Game 5 but Toronto stayed 'alive' with a thrilling 125-122 double-OT win in Game 6. Reserve SG Norman Powell scored 15 of his 23 points in the OT periods. His three-point play with 38.8 seconds left gave the Raptors a four-point lead and his free throws with 5.0 seconds remaining helped Toronto hold on. Kyle Lowry was brilliant in scoring 33 points in 53 minutes. Joining Lowry in playing 50-plus minutes in Game 6 were Siakam (54 minutes), VanVleet (51) and OG Anunoby (50). FOUR of Boston's five starters also logged 50-plus minutes, with Brown adding 31 & 16, Tatum 29-14-9 and Smart (23-11-10), who recorded his second-career triple-double. A name you just didn't read was that of PG Kemba Walker. He played 52 minutes but was just AWFUL, scoring only FIVE points on 2 of 11 shooting. "Just a bad offensive night for me, terrible offensive night for me," Walker said. You think? I'm a big fan of the Raptors and with the top-seeded Bucks KO'd already, Toronto may just think its path to a return trip to the NBA Finals is wide-open (note: The winner of this series better be VERY afraid of the red-hot Heat). However, in watching and reviewing this series, I have concluded that Boston IS the better team. The Raptors are 7-0 in Orlando against all other opponents but just 3-4 vs the Celtics. In fact, after Boston's 111-89 Game 5 win, the Celtics owned FOUR wins over the Raptors by 15 or more points this season while the rest of the NBA, combined, has ONE! Lowry (36.9& overall / 30.0% on threes) and VanVleet (33.7% / 29.8%) have NOT shot well most of this series and I wouldn't want to rely on them here. One could argue that Tatum (23.5-10.0-5.0) and Brown (20.7 & 8.8) have been the two-best players in the series plus Smart (12.8-5.4-5.8) has started the last nine games (for Hayward), including posting a line of 15.7-6.7-5.0 vs Toronto. As for Walker, after a subpar showing in Game 4, he responded with 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting in the blowout victory in Game 5. Want a bonus prop bet? Take the OVER in Walker's posted point total for Game 7. More importantly, make a "Big Play" on the Celtics in this Game 7. Not for nothing, the Celtics are 23-9 all-time in Game 7s. Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Hou Rockets at 7:00 ET. Houston's "small ball" won out in Game 1 of this series, as the team's excellent trio of guards dominated the game. Harden scored 36 points, Westbrook 24-9-6 and Gordon 23. Here's the 'autopsy.' Houston pulled away in Game 1, outscoring the Lakers 27-18 in the fourth quarter to lead by as many as 19 points in a comfortable 112-97 victory. Houston held the Lakers to 97 points, 42.2 percent shooting from the floor, including 11-of-38 from three-point range (28.9%). The rebounding numbers were even (41-41), a big win considering the Rockets are so undersized plus shot 27 FTs to LA's 19, the result of being more aggressive. The Rockets also scored 27 points off of 15 Lakers TOs. "I think it's the speed," LBJ said after the game. "They play with a lot of speed both offensively and defensively. And you can watch it on film and you can see it on film; until you get out there and get a feel for it [you cannot comprehend it]. That's what we did tonight. We got a feel for their speed, and we should be fully aware of that going into Game 2." LA took a 67-51 lead at half in Game 2 but Houston won the 3rd quarter 41023 to take a two-point lead into the 4th. LA prevailed by holding the Rockets to 17 points in the final period to win (AND cover), 117-109. The Lakers shot 56,6% as a team in Game 2. Game 3 was again close, as the teams were tied entering the 4th, However, the Lakers again won the decisive final period (30-20) to win 112-102. Again, LA shot 55.1% as a team, overcoming Harden's 33 points and Westbrook's 30. The Rockets haven't been able to beat the Lakers or Warriors come playoff time in recent years and losing Game 4 to fall behind 3-1 in this series, will surely be a 'death nell.' The Rockets played extremely well offensively for lengthy stretches this series but momentum has turned in the fourth quarter in each of the last two games, as the Lakers' defense has held Houston to just 17 and 20 points, respectively. Here's the two key stretches in those games. Trailing 92-90 entering the final period in Game 2, the Lakers held Houston to 2-for-8 shooting and forced two turnovers during a 14-4 run to take the lead. Then, with the score tied at 82 at the close of the third quarter of Game 3, the Rockets missed 4 of 6 shot attempts while committing three turnovers during the decisive stretch that fueled a 17-5 Lakers rally. Houston needs Harden, Westbrook and Gordon to reprise their Game 1 efforts offensively and for the entire Houston team to play defensively like it did in Game 1, as well. LBJ and LBY make one fabulous duo but the rest of the Lakers can easily 'go in the tank. NOT sure Houston can win THREE of the next four and take this series but Game 4 is clearly a "MUST-WIN" situation for them. I'm taking the points but predict a SU Houston win. Remember, LA's three starters (other than AD and LBJ) scored a combined 14 points in Game 2 and just EIGHT points in Game 3. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-20 | Heat v. Bucks +3 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks owned the NBA's best regular season record in the 2019-20 season (56-17) for the second straight year (went 60-22 last season). The Bucks fell in the Eastern Conference finals last season to Toronto, losing FOUR straight after taking a 2-0 lead. The Bucks looked disinterested in the Orlando bubble, as they finished their eight-game schedule 3-5 and were then shocked by the eighth-seed Magic in Game 1 of their first round series. However, the Magic really never had the talent to stay with the Bucks, who promptly won FOUR in a row with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. The Miami Heat, who finished 12 games worse (44-29) than Milwaukee in the regular season, swept the Pacers 4-0 in the first round and then shocked the Bucks in Game 1 of this series. Many (most?) felt like it would be no more than a blip, with Milwaukee 'righting the ship' much like they did vs the Magic. That was NOT the case though, as Miami won Games 2 and 3 as well, taking a 3-0 lead. All are aware that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 playoff series deficit to win but the Bucks 'gutted out' a 1118-115 OT win in Game 4, to extend the series at least ONE more game. Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his ankle in Game 3 and his status was uncertain entering Game 4. Giannis would score 19 points in just 11 minutes but he re-injured the ankle and never returned after leaving in the second quarter. Milwaukee prevailed behind Khris Middleton's 36 points (8 rebounds and 8 assists), who played 48 minutes. Milwaukee starters Lopez (42) and Bledsoe (40) also reached the 40-minutes of playing time mark, while Miami players felt as if they 'let their guard down' after Giannis left the game. That sets the stage for Game 5. Miami is well-coached by Erik Spoelstra (he's VERY under-appreciated) and all five starters are averaging in double digits, while rookie Herro comes off the bench to chip in 14.8-4.5-3.0. Swingman Butler (22.4-5.0-4.0) and PG Dragic (21.6-4.5-6.0) have been superb, while the ever-improving PF Adebayo(16.6-12.4-5.1) leads the team in rebounding AND assists. Make no mistake, this Miami team is for real. However, I'm still NOT ready to concede the series to the Heat. If Giannis can go, Miami also has five double-digit scorers (four starters plus backup Hill off the bench) and solid depth off the bench. Obviously, the health of Antetokounmpo remains the primary storyline. The Bucks have listed him as questionable for Game 5 and it will almost assuredly be a game-time decision. "We know he's laying it on the line out there for us," Middleton said of Antetokounmpo after his terrific Game 4 effort. "His ankle's already in bad shape. ...Hopefully, we'll have him back again for the next game. But, if not, we still have to play as hard as we can. We've got to fight every night to keep on playing." I'm clearly hoping that Giannis plays but I'm on the Bucks, either way. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-20 | Clippers -9 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The Denver Nuggets came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Utah Jazz in the first round and then with ONE day off between that grueling series and Game 1 of their second round series with the LA Clippers, got manhandled 120-97. Denver shot an abysmal 9 of 36 on threes (25%) and the team's two stars, center Nikola Jokic and PG Jamal Murray both fizzled. Jokic was held to a line of 15-3-3 and Murray scored only 12 points, shooting 5 of 15 from the floor (2 of 8 from three-point range). Kawhi led LA with 29 points, while George (19), Morris (18) and Harrell (15) all added solid support. However, Denver has a knack of getting its opponents out of their comfort zone and did just that in Game 2. Murray (27) and Jokic (260 bounced back with excellent games but more importantly, the Nuggets adjusted their defense to collapse inside and block the passing lanes back outside. The change resulted in the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard delivering his worst performance of the playoffs so far. Kawhi just missed a triple-double (13-10-8) but was an AWFUL 4 of 17 from the floor. His teammates didn't fare very well either, as after shooting 57.1% as a team in Game 1 (including 41.7% on threes), the Clippers shot just 40.9%, including 28.1% (9 of 32). The series is tied at one-all as it resumes Labor Day evening. The Nuggets have been in three previous playoff series the last two postseason and all three have gone SEVEN games. Are we headed for another seven-game series in this one? Some worrisome news for Denver is that it announced Sunday night that Jokic was listed as questionable for Game 3 with a sprained right wrist. The Clippers twice had a one-game lead on the Dallas Mavericks only to see their opponent even the series. However, LA bounced back from a Game to loss to Dallas to win 130-122 and after a Game 4 loss, routed the Mavs 154-11 to go up 3-2 (closed out the series in Game 6. "We will be better for Game 3," George told reporters. "There's no pep talk for it. It's the playoffs. We got to be ready. We've got to come out a lot stronger and we'll be up for the fight." Leonard's run of scoring at least 29 points in each game of the playoffs ended Saturday in Game 2. Anyone really NOT think he'll be a 'MONSTER' in Game 3? Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Lakers at 8:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in my Game 1 analysis of Hou/LA on Friday. The Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers at the start of the playoffs and after Game 1, 'tongues were wagging!' The Lakers shot just 35.1 percent from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!) in Game 1 but then won FOUR straight from Portland. It sure didn't hurt the Lakers that Lillard dislocated the index finger on his left hand in Game 2 and was never the same. However, LA averaged 123.3 PPG in the four straight wins, while shooting 52.2% from the floor in that span. A.D. averaged 29.8-9.4-4.2 in the series, while LBJ chipped in 27.4-10.2-10.2. Is LA's 'dynamic duo' enough to lead the Lakers to the title this postseason? LA is well-rested (last played on Aug 29) as the team gets set to meet the Houston Rockets. The Rockets needed all SEVEN games to get past OKC and just finished off the Thunder on Wednesday, edging them 104-102. Harden led Houston in scoring vs OKC, averaging 29.7-6.3-8.0 but his three-point shooting was way off most of the series (31.3%). Fellow superstar Russell Westbrook finally returned for Game 5 of the team's first round series and averaged just 14.7 PPG, about HALF his regular season average of 27.2 PPG. Without center Capela (13.9 & 13.3) since late January, the Rockets have turned to a 'small ball' philosophy and have gone 19-13 (team was 29-18 when Capela was lost for the season). FOUR more Rockets average in double digits in support of Harden and Westbrook, while starting PF Tucker chips in 8.6 & 7.7 and some VERY tough defense. We saw last night with the Clippers routing the Nuggets (LAC were my Las Vegas Insider play), a team coming off a tough seven-game series with just one day before facing a well-rested formidable opponent can get 'steamrolled!'. One team got steamrolled alright but it was the Lakers, NOT the Rockets. Houston's "small ball" won out, as the team's excellent trio of guards dominated the game. Harden scored 36 points, Westbrook 24-9-6 and Gordon 23. Here's the 'autopsy.' Houston pulled away in Friday night's Game 1, outscoring the Lakers 27-18 in the fourth quarter to lead by as many as 19 points in a comfortable 112-97 victory. Houston held the Lakers to 97 points, 42.2 percent shooting from the floor, including 11-of-38 from three-point range (28.9%). The rebounding numbers were even (41-41), a big win considering the Rockets are so undersized plus shot 27 FTs to LA's 19, the result of being more aggressive. The Rockets also scored 27 points off of 15 Lakers TOs. "I think it's the speed," James said after the game. "They play with a lot of speed both offensively and defensively. And you can watch it on film and you can see it on film; until you get out there and get a feel for it [you cannot comprehend it]. That's what we did tonight. We got a feel for their speed, and we should be fully aware of that going into Game 2." I have my doubts regarding LA's title hopes (will A.D. and LBJ be enough) but I won't hesitate to lay the points in this classic bounce-back spot for the Lakers. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 218.5 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year is on Mil/Mia Over at 3:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in support of the Bucks in Games 2 and 3 vs the Heat. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, 12 games better than Miami's 44-29 record. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks lost Game 1, even though they led by 11 points after the first quarter, as the Heat controlled the rest of the game to win by 11. The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Then in Game 3, Milwaukee led by 12 points entering the fourth quarter and ultimately lost by 15!! The Bucks were outscored in the fourth quarter by 27 (40-13), which was the largest points differential in a fourth quarter of a playoff game in the shot clock era (since 1955), according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Miami ended the game on a 17-1 run. History says the Bucks are 'dead.' No NBA team ever has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series in 139 attempts in NBA playoff history! The Bucks have confounded me and MANY others as well. History says they are 'dead' but as the saying goes, "all things are true until they aren't!" Giannis Antetokounmpo finished Game 3 with 21 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists but he missed all SEVEN three-point attempts and made only 7 of 12 free throws (he made just 4 of 12 FTs in Game 1). Antetokounmpo was dealing with a twisted right ankle in Game 3, an ailment he sustained in the first quarter on a drive to the basket. It's unclear whether it will limit him in Game 4. He didn't say much about it after Game 3. Will Giannis even suit up with Milwaukee in an 0-3 'hole?' Giannis is hardly the problem for the Bucks in this series, as Milwaukee has averaged 14.3 turnovers per game and shot 35.1 percent from three-point range so far in the series, including just 20.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The fact that Miami is averaging 31.0 free-throw attempts per game, is a HUGE problem for the Bucks, as is containing Jimmy Butler. He had 40 points in Game 1 (career playoff-high), hit the game-winning free throws with no time on the clock in Game 2 and scored 30 points in Game 3, including 17 in the decisive fourth quarter! Butler's getting plenty of help from the team's other four starters this postseason (all are averaging between 10.4 and 22.3 PPG) plus rookie Herro has averaged 15.3 PPG off the bench in this year's playoffs. The Bucks no longer have ANY pressure on them (the team's 'obit' has already been written) and what I see (Giannis limited or not) is Milwaukee playing loose and for this game to 'fly' over the total. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6 | 112-97 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126-122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard, who has averaged 36.9 PPG in Portland's nine-game surge to capture the West's No. 8 seed. He then scored 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, as Portland won 100-93. The Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers at the start of the playoffs and after Game 1, 'tongues were wagging!' The Lakers shot just 35.1 percent from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!) in Game 1 but then won FOUR straight from Portland. It sure didn't hurt the Lakers that Lillard dislocated the index finger on his left hand in Game 2 and was never the same. However, LA averaged 123.3 PPG in the four straight wins, while shooting 52.2% from the floor in that span. A.D. averaged 29.8-9.4-4.2 in the series, while LBJ chipped in 27.4-10.2-10.2. Is LA's 'dynamic duo' enough to lead the Lakers to the title this postseason? LA is well-rested (last played on Aug 29) as the team gets set to meet the Houston Rockets. The Rockets needed all SEVEN games to get past OKC and just finished off the Thunder on Wednesday, edging them 104-102. Harden led Houston in scoring vs OKC, averaging 29.7-6.3-8.0 but his three-point shooting was way off most of the series (31.3%). Fellow superstar Russell Westbrook finally returned for Game 5 of the team's first round series and averaged just 14.7 PPG, about HALF his regular season average of 27.2 PPG. Without center Capela (13.9 & 13.3) since late January, the Rockets have turned to a 'small ball' philosophy and have gone 19-13 (team was 29-18 when Capela was lost for the season). FOUR more Rockets average in double digits in support of Harden and Westbrook, while starting PF Tucker chips in 8.6 & 7.7 and some VERY tough defense. We saw last night with the Clippers routing the Nuggets (LAC were my Las Vegas Insider play), a team coming off a tough seven-game series with just one day before facing a well-rested formidable opponent can get 'steamrolled!' Second verse, same as the first." Lakers roll. Good luck...Larry |
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09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA at 56-17, TWELVE games better than the Miami Heat. However, the Bucks are in REAL danger of getting bounced out of the playoffs during the Eastern Conference semifinals, as the Heat have won both Games 1 and 2. Milwaukee jumped out to a 40-29 lead at the end of the first quarter on Monday but it was ALL Miami after that, as the Heat turned that 11-point deficit into an 11-point victory (115-104). The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 23.5 points, 12.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists vs Miami, after averaging 31.8-16.0-6.0 in the first round. Teammate Khris Middleton is averaging 25.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists, an improvement over his first round performance when he averaged just 15.0 PPG on 33.5% shooting. Speaking of shooting performances, the Bucks shot 28.0 percent (7 of 25) in Game 2. If they DON'T improve, they'll NEVER get back in the series. Miami's Jimmy Butler scored 40 points in Game 1 (a career playoff-high), while PG Dragic scored 27 and PF Adebayo added 12-17-6. Butler had just 13 points in Game 2 but his final two points (two FTs with 0:00 on the clock), secured the victory. All five Miami starters scored in double digits on Wednesday, led by PG Dragic's 23 points. He's scored at least 20 points in all six playoff games to lead Miami's SIX double-digit scorers this postseason with a line of 23.5-4.5-4.8. That balance has Miami 6-0 SU & ATS in the 2020 postseason. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks are in an 0-2 'hole' vs Miami and they've 'earned' that position. Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind,' but I will NOT dismiss the NBA's best team over the last two seasons. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The Denver Nuggets edged the Utah Jazz in Game 1 of their first round series in OT but then lost THREE in a row, as the Jazz ripped Denver's defense by shooting 54.5% from the floor, including 47.3% on threes in that span. Denver never really 'cooled off; the Jazz in Games 5 and 6 but the Nuggets but won back-to-back games to send the series to a Game 7. In that one on Tuesday, Denver let a 19-point lead slip away but held on for an 80-78 win. In the process, Denver became just the 12th team in NBA playoff history to comeback and win a series after trailing 3-1. No. 3 Denver now takes on the LA Clippers (No. 2 seed), who needed six games to put away the Luka Doncic-led Mavericks. Denver center Nikola Jokic has been the team's best player the last two seasons, leading Denver in points, rebounds and assists in each of the last two regular seasons. He was somewhat overshadowed by Jamal Murray against Utah, as Denver's PG averaged 31.6-5.6-6.3, including averaging 47.3 PPG from Games 4 through 6. However, in Tuesday's deciding Game 7, while Murray shot just 7 of 21 (1 of 6 on threes) with 17 points, Jokic scored 30 points (added 14 rebounds), including making the game-winning shot with 27 seconds left! The Clippers really struggled with Dallas and the remarkable Doncic, who averaged 31.0-9.8-8.7 in his first-ever playoff series. However, Porzingis missed the final two games and Dallas couldn't keep up as LA outscored 154 points the Mavs 265-208 in winning Games 5 and 6. Kawhi Leonard averaged 32.8-10.2-5.2 (shot 53.8%) against Dallas and closed out the first round in style, becoming the seventh player in NBA history to record 30 points (33), 10 rebounds (14), 5 assists (7) and 5 steals (5) in a playoff game and the first to do so since Gary Payton 20 years ago. No one in LA is concerned about Kawhi but there is worry surrounding Paul George. He averaged just 18.5-6.9-4.0 in the series, shooting 35.8% (27.5% on threes), after shooting 43.9% on the season (including 41.2% on threes). The Clippers can't afford George to shoot a combined 10-for-47 (21.3%) in Games 2, 3 and 4, including going 4-for-25 (16.0%) from three-point, again. I'm pretty sure that George will NOT continue to struggle plus the Clippers should expect MUCH more from PF Harrell, who after averaging 18.6 & 7.1 in the regular season, has seen limited minutes while averaging 9.0 & 3.3, so far. The Clippers are well-rested, having last played on Aug 30 and that game was their ONLY contest since Aug 27. The Clippers take the floor tonight, for just the SECOND time in NINE days! Denver has had just ONE day to get over their great comeback and dramatic Game 7 win over Utah plus Murray seemed to be slowed in the second half of Game 7 after taking a knee to his thigh from Utah's Joe Ingles. SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) has yet to play a game in Orlando plus SGF Harris, the team's best perimeter defender, has just come back the last two games. TOUGH spot for Denver, Lay the points with LA. Good luck...Larry |
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09-03-20 | Raptors -1 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 6:30 ET. The Raptors shot poorly in Game 1 vs the Celtics (36.9% overall, including 25% on threes in going 10 of 40). Boston jumped out to a 39-23 lead at the end of the first quarter and cruised to a 112-94 win. The Raptors NEEDED to improve their play (AND shooting) in Game 2 and while Toronto struggled again (especially from three-point range), the Raptors had a 12-point lead in the late third quarter and took an eight-point lead into the final period. However, Boston DOMINATED the fourth quarter and outscored Toronto 32-21 to earn a 102-99 win and take a 2-0 lead in the series. Marcus Smart made FIVE 3-pointers in just a span of 3:04 in that final period, totaling 16 of his 19 points for the game in that span. "We're pretty pissed right now," Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said after the defeat "We're down 0-2. But we have to go back and look at the film and understand what we've done wrong and look at what we can do better." Lowry shouldn't need to look at the film, as the box score tells us that he and VanVleet have combined to shoot a 'DISGUSTING' 6 of 35 (17.1%) from three-point range in the first two games!! Smart has filled in for the injured Hayward and has averaged 14.4 & 5.2 in his five starts (20.0 PPG in two games vs Toronto), while the trio of Tatum (27.2 & 9.3), Walker (22.-4.3-4.8) and Brown (19.8 & 6.0) just keep on keepin' on! I guess one could just 'close the book' on Toronto in this series by noting that Boston has had Toronto's number all season, winning FIVE of the six matchups. In the bubble, Toronto is 0-3 against Boston and 11-0 against everyone else. However, call me stubborn (that would be fair), but I like this Toronto team and its head coach Nick Nurse. The Raptors lost the first two games against the Bucks in the conference finals last postseason but won FOUR straight on their way to an eventual NBA championship. Yeah, Kawhi is now a Clipper but Toronto took Boston 'to the wire' last time, despite another HORRIFIC shooting performance, My bet says "the THIRD time's the CHARM!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. he Milwaukee Bucks knew the Heat would be a tough opponent, as Miami had won TWO of three regular season meetings between the two teams plus the Heat were coming off an impressive 4-0 sweep of the Pacers (also 4-0 ATS), in which they held Indiana to just 100.8 PPG. The Bucks sure didn't want a repeat of their Game 1 opener against Orlando in the first round, when the 14-point underdog Magic shocked the Bucks, 122-110. Milwaukee jumped out to a 40-29 lead at the end of the first quarter on Monday but it was ALL Miami after that, as the Bucks turned that 11-point deficit into an 11-point victory (115-104). Milwaukee needs to 'hit reset' here in Game 2, much like the Bucks did in immediately turning the tables on the Magic, romping 111-96 in Game 2 of that series (the first of FOUR straight double-digit wins). Miami's Jimmy Butler scored 40 points in Game 1 (a career playoff-high), while PG Dragic scored 27 and PF Adebayo added 12-17-6. Giannis just missed a triple-double (18-10-9) but made just 4 of 12 FTs, contributing to Miami outscoring Milwaukee 25-14 from the line (note: Giannis had averaged 30.6-16.0-6.0 vs Orlando. The good news was Middleton played his best game of the playoffs with 28 points and Brook Lopez chipped in 24 points. Here's the rub, "short & sweet!" Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, while Miami was a much more modest 44-29. Milwaukee's been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but this is the playoffs. As noted, off that Game 1 loss to Orlando, the Bucks won by 15. Here, there is no double-digit pointspread to cover, so expect the Bucks to win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -1 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 5:30 ET. The Toronto Raptors were DOMINATED by the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of their second round series, 112-94. All five Boston starters finished in double digits, with Tatum and Smart leading the way with 21 points apiece. Meanwhile, Toronto starters shot a combined 4 of 25 from three-point range, including 3 of 16 by VanVleet and Lowry. Raptors head coach Nick Nurse summed up the defeat saying, "Tough day for us, right? Nothing was much fun out there today. They were great. We weren't very good. So we're going to have to bounce back." I guess maybe this was no surprise. Boston has now won seven consecutive Game 1s, the longest such streak for the Celtics since taking 11 consecutive 1-0 series leads between the start of the 1985 playoffs and the 1987 NBA Finals. As for Toronto, the Raptors have lost Game 1 in 14 of their last 18 series! Want more? Toronto is 0-2 against Boston at Disney, losing by a combined 40 points and not leading for a SINGLE moment in those two games. BTW...The Raptors are 11-0 at Disney against everybody else! I 'bit' on Toronto in Game 1 and 'got burned' but I will NOT shy away from playing them here in Game 2. The Raptors' starting-five against the Nets consisted of guards VanVleet (21.3-4.0-7.8) and Lowry (12.5-7.0-4.8), SF Anunoby (9.0 & 5.5), PF Siakam (20.8-7.8-4.8) and center Gasol (6.3 & 4.5). PF Ibaka (19.8 7 10.3) and SG Powell (17.5-4.-4.5) both had HUGE series coming off the bench. I noted how poorly Van Vleet and Lowry shot in Game 1 and I'll add Siakam's poor effort (13 points on 5 of 16 shooting plus only 3 rebounds and 2 assists) here. Ibaka had 15 & 9 and Powell 10 points but combined to shoot just 8 of 22 from the floor (36.4%). Boston did EVERYTHING right in Game 1 plus got a HUGE game from undersized center Theis, who 13 points and 15 rebounds. Can they possibly play that well again and can Toronto possibly play that poorly again? The Celtics are now 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the postseason but my bet is that we see the Toronto team we've seen for most of this season in this one, the team that was 57-19 SU and 44-31-1 ATS prior to Sunday's Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the OKC Thunder at 9:00 ET. The Rockets and the Thunder were each 44-28 in the regular season and met in this first round series as the West's No. 4 (Hou) and No. 5 (OKC) seeds, respectively. Houston won Games 1 and 2 easily but OKC rebounded with a 119-107 OT win and then a 117-114 victory. The Rockets had excellent opportunities to win in each of those two games but were eventually done in by poor three-point shooting and the terrific play of OKC's PGs Schroder and Paul (duo combined for 111 points in the back-to-back wins). Game 5 was played Saturday and the good news for Houston was that Russell Westbrook made his first appearance in the series. Westbrook was NOT a big factor with a line of 7-6-7 in 24 minutes. The key was Harden breaking out of a shooting slump by making 11 of 15 shots (31 points), while Covington scored 22 points (he had averaged just 8.0 PPG the first four games). As for OKC, the Thunder starters shot 1 of 21 on threes, while the entire team made only 7 of 46 (15.2%). Paul was "off his game" (16-6-3), while Schroder was tossed after playing just 21 minutes (he did have 19 points). OK, has Houston re-established itself with Game 5's 114-80 rout? Was Game 5's 'ugly' shooting performance by OKC due to Houston's D or did OKC just 'stink out the joint?' Not only did Paul and Schroder under perform but rookie Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari were all "worse than AWFUL.' Dort, whose defense has contained Harden for the first three games of this series, made just 3 of 16 shots. Gilgeous-Alexander was 2-for-8 for four points and Gallinari missed all five points while scoring ONE point. Note that Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 17.0 PPG on the season, while Gallinari averaged 15.2. I believe OKC bounces back in a big way here and remember that while both teams went 44-28 during the regular season, OKC was also an NBA-best 44-28 ATS, while Houston was only 33-39. Take the points and don't be surprised if we are headed for a Game 7. Good luck...Larry
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Series Opener (Bos/Tor) is on the Tor Raptors at 1:00 ET. I first posted this back on Wednesday (a scheduled Thursday tip-off) but as EVERYONE knows all games scheduled from Wed-Fri were postponed due to a protest by NBA players. This Game 1 is now slated to be the first of THREE games played on Sunday. NOTHING about my game analysis has changed! The Celtics and Raptors are BOTH coming off 4-0 sweeps, Boston taking down longtime rival Philadelphia, while the Raptors cruised past the over-matched Nets. PF Tatum (27.0 & 9.8) is just 22 and SG Jaylen Brown (21.5 & 5.8) only 23. That duo, along with vet PG Kemba Walker (24.3-4.3-3.8), have led the way for Boston. The loss of SF Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1 in the regular season) was lost after an injury in Game 1 and remains out for this series. Marcus Smart was inserted into the starting lineup for Hayward and averaged 12.0-4.0-3.0. The Celtics used their center combo of Theis (8.5 & 3.8) and Kanter (5.5 & 6.0) successfully against Philly. The Raptors' starting-five consists of guards VanVleet (21.3-4.0-7.8) and Lowry (12.5-7.0-4.8), SF Anunoby (9.0 & 5.5), PF Siakam (20.8-7.8-4.8) and center Gasol (6.3 & 4.5). PF Ibaka (19.8 7 10.3) and SG Powell (17.5-4.-4.5) both had HUGE series coming off the bench. Lowry is battling an injury (he's listed as day-to-day) and as his above numbers indicate, they are down from his season averages of 19.4-5.0-7.5. Boston has won THREE of the four meetings with Toronto during the regular season, including a 122-100 rout on Aug 7. However, I believe that only serves as extra-motivation for the defending champs. Obviously, a 100%-healthy Lowry would be preferred (maybe the extra rest will help?) but VanVleet has become an elite player and is a more consistent shooter than Lowry. The Celtics didn't miss Hayward vs the Sixers but his absence will be felt against this foe. The Raptors, led by Kawhi, won the franchise's first-ever title last season but sans Kawhi (as well as Danny Green), this year's Toronto team looks every bit a contender for back-to-back titles. I will back them in a big way in this Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 6:30 ET. The OKC Thunder had to like their chances against the Houston Rockets heading into this first round series, as former Thunder star Russell Westbrook (27.2-7.9-7.0) was expected to be sidelined for the entire series with a quad injury (more later). However, the Rockets would dominate the first two games of the series, winning 123-108 and 111-98. Harden (29.0-8.0-6.0) led the way but FIVE other Houston players averaged double digits in the first two contests. Meanwhile, the Thunder shot just 44.2 percent as a team. Veteran Chris Paul just missed a triple-double in Game 1 (20-10-9) but he recorded an 'ugly' minus-36 rating in Game 2 (14-6-2), the WORST of anyone on the court! Another big key to OKC's lack of success was the play of backup PG Dennis Schroder, who missed the first six of OKC's first eight games in Orlando. He was back for this series but he averaged just 9.5 PPG and 4.5 APG the first two games (he averaged 18.9 & 4.0 in the regular season). However, as the series resumes on Saturday for Game 5, it's all tied at two and Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder are two of the biggest reasons behind the Thunder making this a best-of-three series. Paul and Schroder, the Thunder's starting and backup PGs, were not often on the floor together for most of this season. However, Oklahoma City head coach Billy Donovan has elected to go to a small lineup, with those two being the primary beneficiaries. Paul and Schroder combined to average 26.5 points and shoot 39.7 percent from the floor as OKC fell behind 0-2 but in the last two games, the duo has combined to average 55.5 points, while shooting 52.6 percent (Paul's had 26 points in both Games 3 & 4, while Schroder chipped in 29 and 30 points, respectively. Houston has leaned heavily on a small lineup since the trade deadline, making up for what it lost in rim protection by switching relentlessly on "D" and wearing opponents down on the perimeter. It worked perfectly in Games 1 and 2. However, in the OT of Game 3, Donovan took out center Steven Adams and went with a lineup where 6-foot-10 Danilo Gallinari, the best three-point shooter on the Thunder, was their biggest man on the floor. Speaking of three-point shots, the Rockets have set a playoff record this series for most three-point attempts. They 58 from behind the arc in Monday's loss to break the record they had set with 56 tries in Game 2. Harden remains Houston's leader, averaging 32.0-7.8-8.8 but with this Game 5 being pushed back from Wednesday to Saturday because of the protests, Russell Westbrook is expected to play. Westbrook went through full-speed, 5-on-5 action on Thursday and looked "as explosive as ever." All reports are, he WILL play. Plus, as noted above, FOUR others are averaging in double digits. The big surprise has been 12-year veteran Jeff Green. he was signed by the Houston Rockets to a 10-day contract on Feb 18, 20202, after being waived by Utah. The Rockets announced that they had signed Green for the remainder of the season in late February and he's been Houston's second-best player this series, averaging 19.3 PPG. Yes, OKC has won back-to-back games but Houston could have won either one. Houston led by four points into the 4th-quarter in Game 3 and led by FIVE (102-97) with less than one minute to go. House tied the game at 104-104 with 9.5 seconds left but missed the second free throw. The game went to OT, where the Thunder outscored the Rockets 15-3. In Game 4, Houston led by one with about 1 1/2 minutes left (108-107) but lost 117-114. In the end, the Rockets need Harden to "come up big." He went 6-for-13 from behind the arc in the opener but he's lust 11-for-39 (28.2 percent) from behind the three-point line over the last three games. I expect "just that." The bonus is the likely return of Westbrook. How much he actually contributes is unknown but either way, expect the Rockets to make it a convincing win in Game 5. NO late-game missteps in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The seventh-seeded Dallas Mavericks were considered a long shot to get past the second-seeded Los Angeles Clippers in this best-of-seven series. However, despite injuries and ejections, the Mavs find themselves tied at two-all with the Clippers, turning this into a best-of-three series. Luka Doncic put the Mavericks on his shoulders in Game 4, despite playing on a tender left angle and with Kristaps Porzingis (averaged 20.4 & 9. 5 during the regular season) out with a sore right knee. He led Dallas back from a 21-point first-half deficit and capped a 43-17-13 triple-double by hitting a game-winning three-pointer at the overtime buzzer in a 135-133 Maverick victory. In the process, he became the youngest player in NBA history with a 40-point triple-double during the playoffs. LA's Kawhi Leonard had 32 & 9 for the Clippers and has been his usual dominant self this series, averaging 33.0-10.0-5.0, while connecting on 50 percent of his shots. However, LA's other superstar (Paul George), has seemingly 'lost his cape!' George is averaging a modest 15.3-7.3-3.8 through four games, while shooting an abysmal 29.0 percent, including 22.2% on threes. The Clippers would likely be on the verge of closing out the series, if George had played to expectations. Instead, the Clippers are faced with a HUGE Game 5. However, let's NOT forget that even with an under-performing George, LA built a 21-point lead in Game 4 vs Dallas. The good news for Dallas is Porzingis had an MRI following the game on Sunday and the results were negative. However, Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle said Monday that he is still a game-time decision for Game 5. The NBA playoffs rarely produce a "surprise champion" and there were (are) very few who didn't believe that this year's champion would come from a 'pool' of just four teams. Those being Milwaukee and Toronto in the East and the two LA teams in the West. The Raptors have already swept their first round opponent, while the Bucks and Lakers (the league's two No. 1 seeds) both lead their respective opponents, 3-1. OK Clippers, it's your turn to "turn it up a notch." I'm laying the points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126-122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard. Talk was, the Lakers could be had, after some lackluster play in their eight games in Orlando, pre-playoffs. The Lakers clinched the West's No. 1 seed back on Aug 3 and then went just 1-4 (0-5 ATS) the rest of the way, needing a Kyle Kuzma shot at the buzzer to capture their lone win. Lillard had 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, leading a balanced attack that saw McCollum score 21 points while center Jusuf Nurkic (17.9 & 11.8 in Orlando) added 16 & 15. Nurkic's backup, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 7 & 8, with his plus/minus of plus-13 ranking 2nd to only Lillard's plus-19 for the game. Defensively, Portland held the Lakers to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!). A.D. had 28 & 11 and LBJ added his 24th career playoff triple-double (23-17-16) but LA's dynamic duo combined to shoot 1 of 10 on threes. LA's starters shot a combined 3 of 23 on threes. Kuzma, LA's only other consistent scorer during the regular season, added 14. LA's center combo of McGee and Howard (10 points / 13 rebounds) was outplayed by Nuric alone, not even adding in Whiteside's contributions. All of a sudden, the Lakers DID look very vulnerable, while Lillard and the Blazers were becoming 'the story' of Orlando. However, things can turn on a dime in the world of sports. I made a HUGE play on the Lakers in Game 2 and they responded with an 111-88 win. LBJ had a modest line of 10-6-7 but A.D. had 31 & 11 plus the Lakers shot 47.8% as a team. Nurkic contributed just 9 & 8, while Lillard and McCollum combined for only 31 points and shot 2 of 12 on threes. The big story entering Game 3 was Lillard's health, as he had dislocated the index finger on his left hand in the third quarter. Lillard had 34 points in Game 3, while McCollum added 28 but Nurkic was again a non-factor (10 & 7). Meanwhile, LBJ bounced back with a line of 38-12-8 and A.D. wasn't far behind (29-11-8). Overall, LA shot 50.0% as a team in the 116-108 win. So here we are in Game 4, where the Blazers can square it at two-all, or LA can open up a commanding 3-1 lead. I'm not sure that Portland can even the series but taking the points looks very 'juicy.' Lillard can still "make the plays" with his injured left hand but the Blazers will NEED Nurkic to play MUCH better plus the bench CAN'T contribute just EIGHT points again, like it did in Game 3. When LBJ and A.D. play like they did in Game 3, the Lakers "two-man" team looks good enough to win a championship but I still see the Lakers as having way too many 'holes.' After all, even with 'monster' games from their two superstars AND a 28-18 edge in made FTs, the Lakers only won Game 3 by EIGHT points. I expect this contest to come "right down to the wire," taking more than a 'TD' seems HUGE! Good luck...Larry |
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08-24-20 | Pacers +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 6:30 ET. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout on Aug 10 in Orlando but the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 on Aug 15. That broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. However, all games are being played in Orlando, there IS no home court edge to go along with that No. 4 seed. The Heat controlled most of the play in each of the first two games of this series, winning 113-101 and 109-100. Miami then did so again in Saturday's 124-115 Game 3 on Saturday, a contest that was heavily impacted by free-throw shooting. The Heat went to the line 52 times and made 43, whereas the Pacers attempted just 28 foul shots and made 21. Miami has successfully held T.J. Warren to 19.7 PPG, after he averaged 31.0 PPG in the eight games prior to the start of the playoffs. The Pacers remain without their best player, Sabonis (out for the year), who averaged 18.5-12.4-5.0 before getting hurt. However, Malcom Brogdon has shined, averaging a team-best 24.3 PPG in the series, while also leads all clubs in assists with 33 through three games. Oladipo has also looked "more like himself" the last two games, scoring 22 and 20 points, respectively. Miami's basically gone to a seven-man rotation and the Heat have ridden balanced scoring to take a 3-0 lead. FIVE players are all averaging 15-plus points. The group includes starters Butler (24.3-6.0-4.7), Dragic (22.7-5.7 APG), Adebayo (15.3-8.7-5.0) and Duncan Robinson (15.0), plus Kentucky rookie Herro (16.7), who comes off the bench. NO way the Pacers come back to win this series but four-game sweeps are rare when featuring comparable opponents. The third-seeded Celtics completed a sweep over the sixth-seeded 76ers on Sunday but failed to cover. This is a 4 vs 5 matchup (remember, Indiana is the 4-seed) and I see the Pacers bringing their "A-game" to this win or go home contest. Upset alert? I wouldn't call an Indiana win here an upset. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Den Nuggets at 9:00 ET. Utah missed a great opportunity to 'steal' Game 1 against the Nuggets (lost in OT), when even Donovan Mitchell's 57 points weren't enough. However, everything has clicked for the Utah Jazz on offense and defense these last two games. The Jazz have overwhelmed the Nuggets on both ends of the court in back-to-back games, averaging 18 made three-pointers per game, while shooting 45 percent or better from behind the arc in both Game 2 and Game 3 wins. The Nuggets are a mess on defense (have allowed 124.3 PPG in the series) plus have struggled to find a consistent rhythm on offense the last two contests. After scoring 135 points in Game 1's OT victory, Denver has been held to 96.0 PPG in the two losses (Nuggets averaged 111.3 PPG during the regular season). Denver continues to miss two starters, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) and SG Harris (10.4), who happens to be the team's best perimeter defender. Are those losses too much to overcome? I am NOT ready to concede that. Jokic was his usual self in the first two games (28.5-10.4-4.5) but he had just 15 points in Game 3. Jokic had a breakout postseason last year and I expect a HUGE game from him here. PG Murray and the ever-improving Michael Porter Jr. should also be MUCH better in Game 4. Mitchell had those 57 points in the Game 1 loss but in Utah's two wins, scored 30 and 20 points. Center Rudy Gobert (20.0 & 9.3) has at least played Jokic to a draw so far and PG Mike Conley had a HUGE game on Friday. Conley led Utah with 27 points in its Game 3 romp (returned from a two-game absence), shooting a career-best 7-of-8 from three-point range. However, Conley has been erratic all season, shooting only 40.9% during the regular season, including 37.5% on threes. It's my bet that Utah will NOT replicate its performance from the last two games, when the team shot 51,7% (20-of-44 on threes) and 51.2% (18-of-37 on threes), respectively. Denver gained valuable playoff experience by playing in two, seven-game series in the 2019 postseason (beat the Spurs / lost to the Blazers) and I expect them to lean on that here. Expect Jokic and Murray to be "at their best" as the Nuggets tie this series at two-all. Take ANY points available. Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 213 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Bos/Phi Over at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Philly was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn't been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above. Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floor in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds. Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win but I don't see them going down without a fight in this one. For that to happen, the 76ers will HAVE to score more than the pathetic 98/7 PPG they've averaged through the first three games of the series. That's NOT a stretch, as Philly averaged 110.7 PPG during the regular season. In this "win-or-go-home" game, expect Philly to at least reach that season average which means, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers +8 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (Atlantic) is on the Phi 76ers at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. he Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Phily was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn';t been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above..Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floo in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds.Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win the series but I will NOT count them out of salvaging a pride-saving win in Game 4. I want ALL those points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 6:00 ET. The OKC Thunder had to like their chances against the Houston Rockets heading into this first round series, as former Thunder star Russell Westbrook (27.2-7.9-7.0) was expected to be sidelined for the entire series with a quad injury. So far, NOT so good for OKC, as Houston has won handily in each of the first two games, 123-108 and 111-98. Naturally, Harden (29.0-8.0-6.0) has led the way but FIVE other Houston players have averaged double digits in the first two contests. The most surprising of those five is 12-year vet Jeff Green, who the Rockets acquired in late February from Utah. Green's averaging 18.5 PPG and only Harden is averaging more rebounds than Green's 6.5 per. The Rockets have never been known for their defense but the Rockets have held the Thunder to 44.2 percent shooting by rotating with determination. Chris Paul NEEDS to step up for OKC. He just missed a triple-double in Game 1 (20-10-9) in Game 1 but he recorded an 'ugly' minus-36 rating in Thursday's defeat (14-6-2), the WORST of anyone on the court! What can the Thunder do to turn things around? How about utilize 6-11 center Steven Adams more. He's averaged 12.5 & 11.2 and his size leaves the small-ball Rockets with few options to stop him. The 6-10 Danilo Gallinari has led the way for OKC averaging 23.0 PPG and Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 20.0 & 5.0. It's great to have reserve guard Dennis Schroder back (he missed all of OKC's first eight games in Orlando), as while he's averaged just 9.5 PPG and 4.5 APG in this series, he averaged 18.9 & 4.0 in the regular season. Here's a couple of things to note about OKC. The Thunder were the NBA's best pointspread team during the regular season, going 44-28 (compared to Houston's 33-39 mark). What's more, the Thunder have some positive playoff history on their side in situations like this. OKC has won Game 3 in each of the FIVE previous instances in which it fell into an 0-2 series hole. Can you say SIX in a row? Good luck...Larry |
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08-22-20 | Pacers +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 115-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 3:30 ET. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout on Aug 10 in Orlando but the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 on Aug 15. That broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. However, with all games being played in Orlando, there IS no home court edge to go along with that No. 4 seed. The Heat have controlled the play in each of the first two games of this series, winning 113-101 and 109-100. The teams will trade benches and wear different colors for Game 3 but the Pacers will need more than that to get back in this series. The Heat have shut down T.J. Warren in the first two games, after he had averaged 31.0 points PPG on 57.8 percent shooting, including 52.4 percent with three-pointer, However, Warren's been held to 18.0 PPG (48.5 percent overall / 40.0 percent on threes), as Miami's gone up 2-0 in this series. It's not just Warren, as the Pacers have been held to just 100.5 PPG, the second-lowest total through two games of all 16 teams! Miami's gone with basically a seven-man rotation, led by the do-everything Butler (23.0-5.0-5.0) and veteran PG Dragic (22.0-4.5-5.5). SG Robinson (15.0), rookie guard Herro (15.0-4.0-3.5) and PF Adebayo (12.0-7.5-5.0) join Butler and Dragic in double digits (note: Herro is coming off the bench). The Pacers are without arguably their best player, Sabonis (out for the year), who had averaged 18.5-12.4-5.0. However, guards Brogdon (19.5 & 9.5 APG in the two games) and Oladipo (13.0 PPG but just 31.3% shooting) are MORE than capable. The 6-11 Myles Turner (13.0 & 8.5) has held his own up front, even without Sabonis. Here's the rub. Brogdon and Oladipo combined for 39 points in Game 2 (that's the good news) but shot a combined 9 of 29 from the floor (obviously, the bad news). Do I think Miami is the better team, yes! However, NOT by much and I'm taking the points with the team that's down 0-2. This series in NO way resembles the Toronto/Brooklyn mismatch or the Boston/Philly series, where the 76ers look as if they've "packed it in" for the season. No surprise at all to see Indiana win. Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-20 | Clippers -4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 130-122 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. Luka Doncic scored 42 points while adding seven rebounds and nine assists in his first-ever playoff game this past Monday. However, it wasn't enough to keep the Mavs from losing 118-110 to the Clippers for the fourth straight time in the 2019-20 season. However, the Mavericks finally found success against the Clippers on Wednesday, despite Doncic being limited to 28 minutes due to foul trouble. That said, Doncic still managed 28-8-7. Fellow starters Porzingis (23 & 7) and Hardaway (17) both played well but the key was three Dallas players off the bench. Trey Burke (16), Seth Curry (15) and Boban Marjanovic (13) combined for 44 points on 19-of-28 shooting (68%). As for the Clippers, Kawhi scored 35 points and added 10 rebounds but fellow superstar Paul George had just 14 points on 4 of 17 shooting (2 of 10 on threes). LA was just horrific from beyond-the-arc, making just 10-34 (29.4%). Clippers head coach Doc Rivers said the following of the Mavericks performance in Game 2. "They had such a great rhythm against us. Every single guy on their team had confidence with the basketball. They were the more physical team. They played harder. They attacked us. We didn't respond well." Looking ahead to Game 3, Rivers expects his club to play tougher defense and move the ball better in Game 3. He was disappointed that his starting-five combined for seven assists on Wednesday. "That's not how we've played all year," Rivers said. "If we play like that, we can't win." OK, here's the rub. Why should we NOT expect this Kawhi and George led team to respond and bounce back. No way the Dallas trio of Burke, Curry and Marjanovic combine for 44 points again plus note that while Porzingis had 23 & 7 in Game 2, he's playing through right knee soreness. The Clippers are viewed by many as a possible NBA Finals participant (that group includes me) and I expect a championship-like performance from Kawhi and George. Lay the points as the Clippers win "with room to spare." Good luck...Larry |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Jazz | 87-124 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Nuggets at 4:00 ET. Utah missed a great opportunity to 'steal' Game 1 against the Nuggets (lost in OT) but then left no doubt about the outcome in Game 2, in a 124-105 wire-to-wire over the Nuggets. Mitchell's 57 points in Game 1 were not enough for Utah to win but his 30 points in Game 2 were more than enough to lead the way, as Utah shot 51.7% as a team, including connecting on 20 of 44 three-pointers! Denver Nikola Jokic center was his usual self (28 & 11) and Michael Porter continued his excellent play in Orlando with 28 points (made 6 of 9 three-pointers), but PG Jamal Murray went from scoring 36 points in Game 1, to 14 in Game 2. Denver continues to miss two starters, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) and SG Harris (10.4), who happens to be the team's best perimeter defender. The Jazz are expected to get starting point PG Mike Conley back in the lineup after he missed two games for the birth of his son but I'm not sure that's all good news. Conley (14.4 & 4.4 APG) has generally been a disappointment in his first season with Utah. The Jazz did almost everything right in Game 2. Utah shot 19 of 33 from three-point range and 36 of 62 from the floor overall during the first three quarters, entering the final period with a commanding 104-77 lead. The Jazz finished with 32 assists on 45 total baskets and made only SIX turnovers. However, that kind of effort/performance will be hard to duplicate in Game 3. Jokic NEVER seems to play a poor game plus I expect Murray to bounce back. Then there is the continued emergence of Michael Porter Jr. He scored in double digits in all seven of the games he played in Orlando prior to the playoffs, averaging 22.0 PPG. He had just a modest 13 points and eight rebounds in Game 1 but then had that 28-point effort in Game 2, showcasing the mismatches he creates for an opponents' defense. Denver gained valuable playoff experience by playing in two, seven-game series in the 2019 postseason (beat the Spurs / lost to the Blazers). Meanwhile, Utah has been in the playoffs in 11 of the last 19 seasons but has advanced past the second round just ONCE, with SIX first round exits. Not ready to concede this series to Denver but I will be playing them on Friday, in a near-pick'em setting. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* 1st Round Game of the Year (West Conf) is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard, who has averaged in the 10 games the Blazers have played in Orlando. He had 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, leading a balanced attack that saw McCollum scoring 21 points while center Jusuf Nurkic (17.9 & 11.8 in Orlando) added 16 & 15. Nurkic's backup, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 7 & 8, with his plus/minus of plus-13 ranking 2nd to only Lillard's plus-19 for the game. Defensively, Portland held the Lakers to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor, including and 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!). A.D. had 28 & 11 and LBJ added his 24th career playoff triple-double (23-17-16) but LA's dynamic duo combined to shoot 1 of 10 on threes. LA's starters shot a combined 3 of 23 on threes. Kuzma, LA's only other consistent scorer during the regular season, added 14. LA's center combo of McGee and Howard (10 points / 13 rebounds) was outplayed by Nuric alone, not even adding in Whiteside's contributions. The Lakers' time in the NBA bubble has been nowhere near as intense as the Blazers'. The Lakers clinched the West's No. 1 seed back on Aug 3 and since that time, the Lakers are just 1-4 (0-5 ATS) and needed a Kyle Kuzma shot at the buzzer to capture their lone win. Portland was a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers and after Game 1, the Blazers have LA's full attention. Portland has won SEVEN of its last eight games but during the Blazers' stay in Orlando, they never had to face the same team twice, much less face the same team in consecutive games. That changes here in Game 2. "It's one game," Lakers head coach Frank Vogel said. "I was pleased with our competitive spirit. We didn't make shots. ... I think we can shoot the ball better than we saw tonight." The Lakers CAN'T shoot any worse than in Game 1, right? I've never been completely 'sold' on this LA team but I'm "all over" them here in this bounce-back situation. Good luck...Larry |
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08-20-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12.5 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Bucks at 6:00 ET. Orlando served up some 'Magic' on Tuesday, as the team shocked the Milwaukee Bucks 122-110 as 14-point underdogs. Center Nikola Vucevic scored a career playoff-high with 35 points plus added 14 rebounds. Guards Augustin and Ross combined for 29 points off the bench, as the Magic shot 49.4% as a team. Likely league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo had 31 points, 17 rebounds and seven assists but also had five turnovers (note: the Magic turned Milwaukee's 16 turnovers into 25 points) and was held without a FG in the game's final 11 minutes. Milwaukee shot poorly overall (43.3%), including 14-of-42 on threes (14-of-42). The Bucks found themselves in the shadow of the opponent's home base even though they finished the regular season 23 games ahead of the eighth-place Magic but that's hardly an excuse. Milwaukee ranked third in the NBA during the regular season in field goal percentage at 47.6 and MUST shoot better in this one. Khris Middleton (20.9-6.2-4.3 in the regular season), usually Antetokounmpo's able sidekick, was held to 14 points on 4-for-12 shooting. Then there was center Brook Lopez, who after averaging 20.4 PPG in the bubble (on 48% shooting), made just TWO of nine shots (five points)! Here's the rub. Already mentioned above is the fact that while Milwaukee went 56-17 on the season, Orlando was just 33-40. There is a HUGE gap in talent between these two teams, hence the double-digit pointspread. Milwaukee's been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. Milwaukee seemed disinterested in the bubble, going 3-5. However, its Game 1 loss surely got the Bucks' attention. The Magic are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 6:30 ET. The third-seeded Celtics prevailed 109-101 in the series opener against the sixth-seeded 76ers, led by Jayson Tatum (32 & 13) and Jaylen Brown (29). However, it was no 'walk in the park.' In fact, it was much to the contrary. Philly's Joel Embiid made a 22-footer on the first possession of the fourth quarter, as the 76ers took an 81-75 lead. However, Embiid (26 & 16) did not make a field goal over the final 11:36 of the contest, as Boston outscored Philadelphia 34-20 the rest of the way. The Celtics rotated fresh bodies on Embiid and will attempt to employ the same strategy here in Game 2. However, some bad news came Boston's way out of Game 1. Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1 during the regular season) suffered a Grade III right-ankle sprain in the fourth quarter and is out for the rest of the series and could miss the next round as well if the Celtics get that far. Marcus Smart (12.9-3.8-4.9 in the red season will likely replace him in the starting lineup but that further weakens the Boston bench. Smart scored just two points (0-5 FGs) off the bench in Game 1 and while Stevens used SIX bench players during the game, the group totaled a meager EIGHT points. In contrast, Philly's Alec Burks had 18 points off the bench, all by himself. Horford and Harris combined for 15 rebounds and 14 assists in Game 1 but shot a combined 9 of 22 from the floor (including 0-4 on threes), scoring a total of 21 points. That duo will HAVE to contribute more points but overall. The 76ers enjoyed a 50-43 advantage on the boards but the "deciding factor" in Game 1 was the fact the Celtics committed just SEVEN turnovers, compared to the 76ers' 18. Another nail-biter is expected and I'm taking the points. A Philly win would NOT be a surprise. Good luck...Larry |
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08-19-20 | Jazz +4.5 v. Nuggets | 124-105 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Ut Jazz at 4:00 ET. The sixth-seeded Utah Jazz received 57 points from Donovan Mitchell, who set a Utah record for points in a playoff game, but lost to the third-seeded Denver Nuggets in game 1 of this first round series. Utah entered the 4th quarter with an 83-78 lead and still led by four (102-98) with about 4 1/2 minutes to go. However, the teams would head to OT tied at 115-all. Denver scored the first EIGHTpoints of the extra period and took Game1 by a score of 135-125. Denver PG Jamal Murray dominated down the stretch. He scored 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting in the fourth quarter & OT, finishing with 36 points and nine assists for the game. Center Nikola Jokic finished with 29 points and 10 rebounds, attacking inside and outside, while getting the best of Rudy Gobert (17 & 7) in their individual matchup. Both teams are missing key pieces as they get set to square off in Game 2. Bojan Bogdanovich (20.2) was Utah's second-highest scorer this season but had surgery to repair a ruptured ligament in his right wrist back in May. PG Conely has had an erratic season (14.4 & 4.4 APG) but the Jazz miss him. He left the bubble for the birth of his son and is back but not yet cleared to play. As for the Nuggets, SF Barton (15.1-5.0-6.3) and SG Harris (10.4), the team's best perimeter defender, each have yet to play in Orlando (won't in Game 2, either). Mitchell had 22 fourth-quarter points but also committed a costly eight-second backcourt violation in the final two minutes of regulation that ultimately ended up becoming the turning point in the game. "I kind of put a little bit on myself for that eight-second violation and then they come down and hit a three that really changed the entire game," Mitchell said. "But at the end of the day, we're not overreacting. It's one game. We got to go back out there and be ready for Game 2." I'm taking the points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-20 | Blazers v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Lakers enter their first round series with the Blazers as the top seed in the Western Conference but I'm sure most have heard "the chatter." The eighth-seeded Blazers, one of the hottest teams in the bubble and led by Damain Lillard (the bubble's most outstanding player), are a dangerous squad and a tough matchup for LA. The Lakers pretty much had the No. 1 seed locked up when they arrived in Orlando and the Lakers played like a team with nothing to prove. LA went 3-5 SU and a money-burning 1-7 ATS in their eight games! In contrast, the Blazers had work to do when they arrived in Orlando, needing to catch Memphis for the No. 8 seed, or stay within four games of the eight-seed, which would force a play-in. Portland went 6-2 and was able to earn the No. 8 seed, when Memphis went 2-6. That forced a play-in situation in which the Blazers and Grizzlies met last Saturday. A Portland win would give them the final playoff spot, while a Memphis win would force a winner-take-all game on Sunday. Lllard continued his outstanding play last Saturday, scoring 31 points and adding 10 assists, as the Blazers made a Sunday game moot, with a 126-122 win. Lillard had averaged 51.3 points in his three previous games before Saturday, including a career-high tying 61 points in a win over the Dallas Mavericks on Aug 11. Backcourt partner McCollum, who has clearly been affected by a nondisplaced fracture in his back. added 29 points. Center Nurkic had missed all games in the regular season but the COVID-19 stoppage of play allowed him to return in Orlando. He averaged 17.6-1.3-4.0 as Portland went 6-2 plus added 22 points and 21 rebounds in Saturday's seed-clinching game with Memphis. The Lakers are led by the dynamic duo of A.D. (26.1 & 9.3) and LBJ (25.3-7.8-10.2) but BOTH played erratically in LA's 3-5 effort. LA's only other double-digit scorer this season has been reserve forward Kyle Kuzma (12.8 & 4.9) but Dion Waiters, who was signed prior to the bubble, has averaged 11.9 PPG in 23.5 MPG here in Orlando. The Lakers have started McGee (6.6 & 5.7) with Howard (7.5 & 7.3) coming off the bench at the center position and the combo has been 'quietly' effective. I have my doubts about LA's ability to "win it all" but after basically 'sleep-walking' through the team's first eight games, I expect A.D. and especially LBJ, to "put Portland in its place" in Game 1 of this series. "Lay it!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-18-20 | Heat -4.5 v. Pacers | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Heat at 4:00 ET. The No. 5 Miami Heat and No. 4 Indiana Pacers open a best-of-seven playoff series late Tuesday afternoon, after the teams split a pair of games in the NBA bubble. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout last Monday, before the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 win on Friday that broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. Much has been made of the Jimmy Butler and TJ Warren feud but one can't seriously think it will have an effect on the outcome of this game, or the series! Warren earned a spot on the All-Bubble first team after averaging 31.0 PPG in the Pacers' eight games since the restart but he had nowhere near that level of success in three games against the Heat this season, shooting just 11-for-31 overall (35.5 percent), including 3-for-11 on three-pointers (27.3 percent), while averaging just 10.3 PPG. What's more, Warren has a foot injury and has been listed as questionable for this contest. If that were NOT enough, Domantas Sabonis (18.5 & 12.4) has not played in Orlando (he is out indefinitely with plantar fasciitis) plus Oladipo (14.5) and Lamb (12.5 & 4.3) are less than 100% (not sure on their status). The Heat enter this series in much better health, led by swingman Jimmy Butler (19.9-6.7-6.0) and big man Adebayo, who has come into his own this season (15.9-10.2-5.1). veteran PG Dragic (16/2 & 5.1 APG) is joined on the perimeter by undrafted rookie Nunn (15.3), who is set to return for the first time in Orlando (Spoelstra says he'll come off the bench). Rookie guard Herro, 13th overall pick out of Kentucky, has had a solid first season, averaging 13.5 & 4.1 APG). SF Duncan Robinson played just 15 games last season (3.3 PPG in about 11 minutes) but has been a regular this season, averaging 13.5 PPG. SF Jae Crowder, acquired in Feb from Memphis, has given Miami 11.9 & 5.4 in 20 games (28 MPG). Erik Spoelstra is a playoff-tested head coach and quite frankly, he brings the better team into this series. Take Miami to win Game 1, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Playoff Opener is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. The Celtics and 76ers 'tipped off' their respective seasons back on Oct 23, with the 76ers taking care of the Celtics 107-93. It was a nice confidence-builder for Philly, as the Celtics had gone 7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS in their previous nine meetings with Philly. Now, almost NINE months later, the two longtime rivals open against each other in a #3 (Boston) vs #6 (Philadelphia) first round series from the Orlando 'bubble.' Al Horford joined Philly (from Boston) in the off season and the 76ers did win THREE of the four meetings with Boston this season, seemingly turning the tide. However, this series will take on a different complexion in the playoffs, as Philly's All-Star guard Ben Simmons (16.4-7.8-8.0) has been sidelined following knee surgery. Is the loss of Simmons that BIG of a deal? Not all think so. Here's what Boston head coach Brad Stevens noted. "In the games that Simmons hasn't played, they're the No. 1 offense in the league," said Stevens. "The spacing, the shooting around [Joel] Embiid posting, the ability to play big with both Embiid and Al (Horford). ... A bunch of shooters around them makes them very tough." The 76ers went 4-4 during the seeding portion of the NBA season restart, ending on a 2-3 stretch in the games without Simmons. Still, as Stevens alluded to, the team surpassed 100 points in each of those contests, with Horford slotting into the starting lineup in a bigger look. Embiid's a stud (23,0 & 11.6), Harris (19.6 & 6.9) is an excellent SF and Horford (11.9-6.8-4.0) has always been more valuable than his stats indicate. The Celtics have two young stars (superstars?) in Jayson Tatum (23.4 & 7.0) and Jaylen Brown (20.3 & 6.4). Both have had "career years" in the 2019-20 season, while the FA signing of PG Kemba Walker (20.4 & 4.8 APG) has been HUGE. No one in Boston misses Kyrie. Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1) is playing like he did three years ago and Marcus Smart (12,9-3.8-4.9) has become a team leader, as well as the team's best defender. Boston's center duo of Theis (9.2 & 6.6) and Kanter (8.1 & 7.4) don't get much respect, but they make up a solid combo. Don't include me as one who buys into the theory of Philly being better off with Simmons. As for Boston, the Celtics were pretty much 'locked into' the No. 3 seed when the restart began but played well in 'the bubble.' They lost their first game to the Bucks 1189-122 (note: game was tied with 1:30 left) but then went 5-1 over their next six, including FOUR straight, before resting their starters in a 96-90 loss to the Washington Wizards on Thursday. I'm laying the points! Good luck...Larry |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mem Grizzlies at 2:30 ET on Saturday. The NBA season resumed back on July 30th in an Orlando 'bubble.' Each team would play eight games and those W/L records would be added to each teams' record as of the shutdown. A typical 16-team playoff season would follow, as all teams would be seeded 1 through 8 based on their overall record, with a lone exception. If the 9th-seed finished within four games of the No. 8 seed in either conference, those two teams would meet in a "play-in" situation. The No. 9 would need to beat the No. 8 seed in back-to-back games to earn the final playoff spot, while the No. 8 seed would need to win only once. Win Game 1 and that would end things, or win Game 2, if needed. The 'battle' for the West's final seed saw the Grizzlies begin the restart with a record of 32-33, which gave them a 3 1/2 game edge over the 29-37 Blazers. The Kings and Pelicans were each 28-36 (also 3 1/2 games back), while the Spurs checked in at 27-36 (4 games back) and the Suns at 26-39 (6 games back). Most expected the Blazers to be the biggest challenger to Memphis and Portland did go 6-2 in Orlando. However, the surprising Suns 'ran the table,' going 8-0. Memphis struggled right from the start in losing its first four games and SIX of its first seven but the team's 119-106 Thursday night win over Milwaukee guaranteed the Grizzlies at least the No. 9 seed. Phoenix routed Dallas 128-102 on Thursday and awaited the result from Portland's game with Brooklyn. Portland could claim the No. 8 seed with a win but the Blazers would miss the postseason with a loss. The Blazers eked out a 134-133 win, leaving the Suns out of luck despite their 8-0 record in Orlando (Memphis claimed the final spot with the same record as Phoenix due to its 3-1 record over the Suns on the season). That sets the stage for Saturday's game and Portland can claim the West's final playoff spot (and a date with the Lakers) with a win. Lose, and the teams meet again on Sunday, in a winner-take-all scenario. The Blazers are led by the dynamic backcourt duo of Lillard and McCollum. Lillard's been brilliant, averaging 37.6 PPG in Orlando, including 51.3 PPG over Portland's last three games. McCollum is averaging 20.1 PPG but his play has clearly been affected by a nondisplaced fracture in his back. The Blazers went 53-29 last season and made it all the way to the West Finals, before getting swept by the Warriors. However, Portland was suffering through a disappointing season filled with injuries and bad breaks, along with sloppy, inconsistent play. However, the COVID-19 forced break allowed the return to health of center Jusuf Nurkic and PF Zach Collins. Nurkic's been excellent (17.6-10.3-4.0) and Collins (6.3 & 7.1), steady. The real surprise in Orlando has been Gary Trent Jr, who owns a career average of 7.6 PPG, but has averaged 16.9 PPG in Orlando. Memphis went just 2-6 in the bubble, often struggling. The loss of Jaren Jackson Jr. (the team's second-leading scorer) really hurt but the team's 3½-game cushion heading into the restart helped keep them in the playoff race. Facing elimination with a loss on Thursday, the Grizzlies played their best game in Orlando. Ja Morant (12-13-10) and Jonas Valanciunas (26-19-12) became the first Grizzlies teammates to record triple-doubles in the same game, while shooting guard Brooks scored a team-high 31 points in the win over the Bucks. Morant has averaged 19.0-5.6-9.9 in the bubble, Brooks 20.1 PPG and Valanciunas 15.3 & 11.5. Conventional wisdom says Portland will advance (needs just ONE win, while Memphis must win TWICE) and Lillard has surely been Orlando's brightest star. However, Memphis beat Portland 111-104 in the teams' only regular season meeting and when these two teams tipped off against each other in the Orlando 'bubble,' Portland eked out a 140-135 win in OT. I'm taking the points and would not even be a little shocked if Memphis forced a game on Sunday! Good luck...Larry |
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08-13-20 | Bucks v. Grizzlies +1 | Top | 106-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Seeding Decider is on the Mem Grizzlies at 4:05 ET. All the postseason matchups in both conferences are set with the exception of which team will face the West's top-seeded Lakers in the first round, after the completion of Wednesday's games. The 34-39 Portland Trail Blazers currently own the No. 8 seed but the 33-39 Memphis Grizzlies, the 33-39 Phoenix Suns (perfect 7-0 in 'the bubble') and the 32-28 San Antonio Spurs (looking to reach the postseason for the 23rd consecutive season) all still have a chance to compete in the play-in series to determine the eighth spot in the West entering Thursday's pivotal slate of games. The Grizzlies, a woeful 1-6 in the bubble, are the FIRST of the above four teams to take the court on Thursday (4:05 ET), as they face the Milwaukee Bucks. Memphis holds the ninth-seed in the West, a half-game behind Portland and technically tied with Phoenix but the Grizzlies own a tie-breaker advantage over the Suns. As for San Antonio, the Grizzlies are percentage points ahead of the Spurs, .458 to .457. If Memphis wins, the Grizzlies will earn at least the No. 9 seed and if Portland loses, would earn back the No. 8 seed. The Grizzlies can also earn an invitation to the play-in series in the ninth position even with a loss, if both the Suns AND Spurs also lose on Thursday. If nothing else, the Grizzlies do control their own fate. The 56-16 Milwaukee Bucks own the NBA's best record and have had little motivation here in the bubble. The Grizzlies will not see likely MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo in this must-win game, as he will serve a one-game suspension after he head-butted Washington's Moe Wagner following an offensive foul and verbal exchange in Tuesday's 126-113 win. Truth is, Milwaukee would have likely rested him in this meaningless game and head coach Mike Budenholzer just may play his other starters very little, as well. Jaren Jackson Jr, the Grizzlies' 2nd-leading scorer, tore the meniscus in his left knee earlier in the bubble and is out for the season. Still, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Jonas Valanciunis and Grandon Clarke are all double-digit scorers. ONE win and Memphis gets to play on. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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08-12-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +5.5 | Top | 124-111 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers can clinch the West's No. 2 with a win tonight over the Denver Nuggets (Denver is currently the No. 3 seed). However, Kwahi Leonard has said it matters little if LA is the No. 2 or No. 3 seed heading into the NBA playoffs. "There's really no homecourt advantage, no fans out there, no travel," said Leonard, according to the Los Angeles Times. "I definitely think the healthiest teams usually win it all. Guys that have the full roster, have a good bench. Hopefully we can get everybody back and if we can get a rhythm going with the guys that are here that usually play, then we'll see what happens." It's hard to argue with his logic. The 47-23 Clippers hold a 1 1/2-game lead over the Nuggets with two games remaining, while Denver is 1 1/2 games ahead of the 44-26 Houston Rockets, who own the No. 4 seed. The Clippers are just 3-3 in the Orlando 'bubble,' after losing 129-120 to the Nets on Sunday (LA allowed the rag-tag Nets to shoot 55.3% from the floor). George sat out that game, while Kawhi had 39 points. Under these circumstances, one never knows when Kwahi or George will play. Maybe George will play and Kwahi will sit. We KNOW that PGs Shamet and Beverley remain out and that while PF Montrezl Harrell (18.6 & 7.1 has returned to the bubble, he won't play against the Nuggets because he is being quarantined, Harrell could return for Friday's regular-season finale against the Oklahoma City Thunder, coach Doc Rivers said. The Nuggets last played Monday night, losing 124-121 to the Lakers, when Kyle Kuzma made a three-pointer with 0.4 seconds left in the game. "I couldn't be more proud of our group," Denver coach Michael Malone told the media after the game. "I thought we played extremely hard. That's the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. The fourth time we've played them. Every game has been a battle, it's gone down to the wire. For us to sit our starters that whole fourth quarter and to have the guys on the bench out there giving them all they could handle and lose a heartbreaker is always tough but (I'm) just so proud." EIGHT Denver players scored in double figures, led by reserve guard PJ Dozier with 18 points and forward Michael Porter Jr, who finished with 15 points on 6-of-6 shooting. Porter has "come into his own" here in Orlando, averaging 23.8 & 11.2. SF Barton (15.1 & 6.3) and SG Harris (10.4) remain out but PG Murray has returned the last two games to average 18.5-8.0-5.5. Then there is center Jokic (20.7-6.7-8.5). Denver knows it will almost assuredly have to beat both LA teams to reach The Finals and after that hard-luck loss to the Lakers on Monday, I like the Nuggets' chances here. Especially getting almost a 'TD.' Good luck...Larry |
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08-10-20 | Raptors +6 v. Bucks | Top | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 6:30 ET. The Bucks (55-15) have clinched the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference for the second season in a row, despite uneven play in the 'bubble' (Milwaukee is just 2-3 SU and ATS). The Raptors lost Friday for the first time since the season restart (122-100 to the Boston Celtics) but they rebounded Sunday afternoon with a 108-99 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies to clinch the No. 2 seed in the conference at 50-19 (4-1 SU & ATS in the 'bubble.'). Milwaukee has been the East's best regular season for the last two seasons but the Raptors ARE the defending champs and have given every indication that they are ready to make a run at back-to-back titles. How much can this game really mean to Milwaukee? The Bucks have won the two previous meetings between the teams this season, 115-105 at home on Nov 2 and 108-97 at Toronto on Feb 25. There is no denying the Bucks have struggled at times since the restart, as if not for a 'miracle' comeback vs Miami last Thursday, the Bucks would be just 1-4 ATS. Meanwhile, the Raptors sport a terrific seven-man rotation with guards Lowry, VanVleet and Powell plus frontcourt players Siakam, Anunoby, Gasol and Ibaka. In particular, VanVleet (19.4-4.2-6.8) has been outstanding. Giannis Antetokounmpo should win his second straight MVP award (he's spectacular) but he's listed as probable due to a toothache (DON'T downplay that!). Either way, I'm "all over" Toronto with the points in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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08-09-20 | 76ers v. Blazers -2.5 | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Por Blazers at 6:35 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers are 42-27, which currently leaves them as the East's No. 6 seed. However, they are just a halg0game back of Miami and Indiana, which are tied for the No. 4 seed. The bad news for Philly is that Ben Simmons suffered a dislocated left kneecap during Wednesday's victory over the Washington Wizards. Philadelphia announced that he will undergo a procedure to remove a loose body from the knee. There wasn't an immediate timetable announced but it's likely that the 76ers won't see Simmons on the floor again until the 2020-21 campaign. Portland suffered a costly 122-117 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday, even though Kawhi was rested by LA. The loss drops them 1 1/2 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies (currently eighth-place team in the West). Just as much of a concern is that the Blazers are just a half-game ahead of the San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns plus one game in front of the New Orleans Pelicans for the play-in berth (9th-seed). Yes, Portland is playing the second of back-to-back games but ALL the motivation lies with them. This is almost a "must-win." A victory for Portland would be HUGE, as Memphis is playing Toronto (Grizzlies are 7-point underdogs) plus the Spurs and Pelicans are playing each other (one team HAS to lose). Portland has seen the return from injury of two key performers. Center Jusuf Nurkic is finally back on the court and he's averaged 19.6-11.4-4-5.2 in five games. Also, PF Zach Collins is back, averaging 7.0 & 7.4 in about 27 minutes per game. Portland relies heavily on one of the NBA's best backcourts in Lillard and McCollum but don't dismiss the contributions of Carmelo Anthony. He's been a HUGE surprise all season. Then there is second-year pro Gary Trent Jr, who has a career average of 7.5 PPG, but is averaging 20.6 PPG "in the bubble." Damian Lillard scored 22 points but was taking blame for Saturday's loss. He missed two free throws with the Blazers down by one with 18.6 seconds left and was off the mark with a three-pointer that could have tied the score with 9.5 seconds to play. Lillard tied his franchise record with 11 three-pointers and scored 45 points in Portland's 125-115 win over the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night. Expect a HUGE game from him here and lay the 'short' price with Portland. Good luck...Larry |
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08-08-20 | Bucks v. Mavs +5 | Top | 132-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 8:35 ET. The Dallas Mavericks have lost THREE of their first four games in the Orlando 'bubble.' The team played three straight highly competitive contests (a 153-149 OT loss to Houston, a 117-115 loss to Phoenix and then a 114-110 OT win against SA), before getting blown out 126-111 by the Clippers on Thursday. The 41-30 Mavs are almost 'locked into' the West's No. 7 and their likely first-round opponent will be the Clippers (not exactly something to look forward to). The Milwaukee Bucks are an NBA-best 55-14, although they've played back-to-back 'curious' games. The Bucks lost 119-116 to the injury-riddled Nets on Tuesday, as 19-point favorites (the contest ranks as the NBA's largest point spread upset in 27 years and according to ESPN, teams favored by 19 or more had gone 49-2 SU over the past 30 years). They then fell behind by as many as 23 points to the Miami Heat on Thursday (Heat were without Butler and Dragic), only to come back to earn the 130-116 win (AND cover!). Milwaukee is just 2-2 since the season resumed. A closer look into that loss to the Nets reveals that Giannis only played the first half as head coach Mike Budenholzer decided to rest some of his starters (no Milwaukee starter played more than 20 minutes against Brooklyn). Not sure I want to guess what Budenholzer's strategy will be these last four games, as the Bucks have wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. As for the Mavs, they could sure use a confidence builder. Completing a two-game season sweep of the Bucks may be "just what the doctor ordered." Dallas ended Milwaukee's 18-game winning streak 120-116 back on Dec 16 on the Bucks' home floor. Revenge for Milwaukee? As noted above, do they really have any motivation for that? There hasn't been a better 'one-two punch' in Orlando than Doncic (32.8-11.0-9.8) and Porzingis (30.3 & 10.0) and I'm expecting another OUTRIGHT win. I had OKC plus-6 in that 105-86 of the Lakers on Weds and Boston plus-3 in its 122-100 win over Toronto, last night. Good things always come in threes! Good luck...Larry |
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08-07-20 | Celtics +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 122-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 9:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors had won four straight when the NBA season was shut down due to COVID-19 and have added THREE straight wins in the Orlando 'bubble.' The Raptors' seven-game winning streak is an NBA-best and Toronto (49-18) takes on the 45-23 Boston Celtics Friday night, knowing a win will clinch the East's No. 2 seed. The Celtics are 2-2 in Orlando but have won two of the three meetings with the Raptors this season. The Celtics last played on Wednesday, routing the under-manned Nets,149-115. Boston shot 56.8 percent from the floor, including making 20 of 39 three-point attempts. SEVEN players scored in double digits, a group which didn't include PG Kemba Walker. Walker sat out to rest his sore left knee but is expected to play against Toronto. With Walker playing, Boston features five double-digit scorers, led by Jayson Tatum (23.3 & 7.0) Toronto has SIX players averaging in double digits, led by Pascal Siakam (23.3 & 7.5). Toronto is currenting receiving excellent production from guard Fred VanVleet, who scored a career-best 36 points in Monday's 107-103 win over the Miami Heat and followed that up with 21 points and 10 assists in Wednesday's victory over Orlando. A concern could be PG Lowry, who was 2-for-9 shooting effort against Orlando and leaving him 4 of 17 from the floor over the past two games (just 22 points), after scoring 33 points (along with grabbing 14 rebounds) in Toronto's 107-92 rout of the Lakers. I'm really starting to 'warm' to the idea that Toronto has a legitimate chance at repeating as NBA champs this year (minus Kawhi) but I don't like them here. I noted that Toronto can clinch the East's No. 2 seed with a win but practically, the Raptors have already clinched the No. 2 seed. The only way for Toronto to NOT earn the No. 2 seed would be to lose each one of its final FIVE games, while the Celtics win each of their remaining FOUR. Not happening! For me, the motivation edge here is with Boston, who could take the series (3-1) from Toronto with a win and give them some extra confidence in a possible matchup with the Raptors in the Eastern semis.. Any points are just a bonus! Good luck...Larry |
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08-06-20 | Blazers -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Por Blazers at 8:05 ET. The Denver Nuggets are 2-1 since the restart after earning a 132-126 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday. The victory gives them a 45-23 record, just a half-game back of the Clippers for the West's No. 2 seed. The Nuggets are right back on the court tonight, taking on the Portland Trail Blazers, who are also 2-1 in the NBA's Orlando 'bubble.' Portland is off an impressive 110-102 win over the Rockets on Tuesday and with Memphis losing all FOUR of its games since the restart, find themselves just ONE game back of the West's No. 8 seed. Denver returned to play missing THREE key starters and I'm not sure when any of them will return. PG Murray (18.8 & 4.8 APG) has a hamstring problem, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-2.7) has a knee issue and SG Harris (10.4) is bothered by his hip. Jokic (20-4-10.1-7.0 on the season) is 'the center of attention' (pardon the pun) but the team's 'hero' has been Michael Porter Jr. The PF had just 11 points in the team's 125-105 opening loss vs the Heat but he's scored 67 points and grabbed 27 rebounds in Denver's last two games (both wins). While Denver has lost key players to injury, Portland has seen the return from injury of two key performers. Center Jusuf Nurkic is finally back on the court and he's averaged 22.0-12.3-4.3 in three games. Also, PF Zach Collins is back, averaging 7.0 & 7.0. Portland relies heavily one one of the NBA's best backcourts, Lillard (28.8-4.4-8.0) and McCollum (22.5-4.2-4.4) but don't dismiss the contributions of Carmelo Anthony. He's been a HUGE surprise all season, averaging 15.3 & 6.3. Then there is second-year pro Gary Trent Jr, who has a career average of 7.0 PPG, but is averaging 18.0 PPG "in the bubble." Both teams have plenty to play for here but Portland is rested and the Blazers are still trying to secure a playoff berth (NOT the case with Denver). The Nuggets are 3-0 against the Blazers this season and have won NINE of the last 10 meetings but the Blazers are way more healthy and again, are playing for their postseason 'lives!' Lay the small spot. Good luck...Larry |
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08-05-20 | Thunder +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 105-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 6:30 ET. The Lakers clinched the top seed in the Western Conference with Monday's win over Utah and have little to play for these next five games (note: LA Lakers is in the playoffs for the first time since 2013). Meanwhile, the 41-25 OKC Thunder enter this game holding down the West's No. 6 seed, two games better than the Dallas Mavs (No. 7 seed). More importantly, the Thunder know that the fourth-seed is still in realistic reach, as the Rockets and Jazz are both 42-25, a half-game up on OKC. as well. Anthony Davis has averaged 38 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Jazz but he had just 14 points (on just seven FG attempts) in LA's 107-92 loss to Toronto. LeBron James (24.4-8.0-10.4 on the season) teams with A.D. but only reserve forward Kyle Kuzma (12.5) has averaged more than 10 points on the season. Dion Waiters, a recent signee, has averaged 10.0 PPG in LA's three games of the restart but he's shooting just 40.7%, including 21.4% on threes. OKC has no one in the class of A.D. and LBJ but while backup PG Dennis Schroder is missed (he left the NBA bubble for the birth of his second child Monday morning), the Thunder have been more than competitive with an NBA-best 41-25 ATS mark. Gilgeous-Alexander (19.4 & 6.0), Gallinari (19.2 & 5.4) and Paul (17.8-4.9-6.8) are all capable of "big nights" plus the center duo of Adams (11.0 & 9.4) and Noel (7.6 & 5.0) is at least the equal of LA's duo of McGee and Howard. The points are a bonus in this one, as I'm calling for an outright OKC win, just like what the Raptors did (see above). Good luck...Larry |
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08-04-20 | Celtics -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are both 1-1 in the NBA's restart, leaving the 44-22 Celtics 2 1/2 games up on the 42-25 Heat with only SIX games left on the schedule as the teams battle for the East's No. 3 seed. Boston last played Sunday, holding off Portland 128-124, in a game they once led by 24 points! Miami played yesterday afternoon and lost a tough one, 107-103 to Toronto. Miami lost the game from the three-point line, shooting just 14 of 45 (31.1%), while allowing Toronto to connect on 16 of 32 (50.0%). Boston's best player, Jayson Tatum, was a brutal 2-of-18 from the floor in Boston's seven-point loss to Milwaukee last Friday but he rebounded to score 34 points plus add a career-high eight assists in the Sunday win over Portland. The third overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft has increased his scoring average in each of his three seasons; from 13.9 to 15.7 to 23.4. PG Kemba Walker is on a minutes-restriction as he fights his way back from a knee injury but had 16 points (19 minutes) in the loss to Milwaukee, then added 14 points in 22 minutes against Portland. Jaylen Brown added 30 points against the Blazers (had 22 vs the Bucks) and Gordon Hayward added 22. The Celtics' bench is led by guard Marcus Smart, who is one of the best defenders in the league and also averages 13.5 PPG. Backup Center Enes Kanter averages 8.1 points and 7.6 rebounds. The Heat are led by the all-around talent of Jimmy Butler (20.2-6.6-6.1) but also have SEVEN more players scoring in double digits. That group is led by Bam Adebayo (16.2-10.4-5.1), an All-Star for the Heat this year, plus veteran PG Goran Dragic (16.2 PPG & 5.1 APG). Adebayo had a quiet game, producing 10 points and eight rebounds vs Toronto, while Dragic had 25 points, five rebounds and five assists. It should be noted that Miami was 24-9 through the end of December but since the calendar moved to 2020, has gone a pedestrian 18-16. I will also bring up the fact that the Heat are 5-6 this season without rest but 37-19 with at least one day between games. The Celtics are 2-0 against the Heat this season, winning 112-93 on Dec 4 and 109-101 on Jan 28. Boston takes a FIVE-game regular-season winning streak against Miami into this contest and extends it to SIX straight, giving them a 3 1/2 game lead for that No. 3 seed with just FIVE games remaining. Good luck...Larry |
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08-02-20 | Spurs v. Grizzlies -4 | 108-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Mem Grizzlies at 4:05 ET. The 28-36 San Antonio Spurs beat the Sacramento Kings 129-120 on Friday but at just 28-36, realize that catching or at least staying within shouting distance of the West's No. 8 seed will be a tough 'road to hoe.' Of course, having Pop as one's coach, surely helps. DeMar DeRozan scored 25 of his 27 points in the second half to pace San Antonio to a win in its first official game back in action, as he scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, including 13 in the final 5 1/2 minutes. Memphis is the West's current No. 8 seed and lost its first game since the COVID-19 shutdown, 140-135 in OT. It was a ragged game that had 62 called fouls and five technicals, while Memphis allowed Portland to shoot 53.8%. This is NOT "your father's Spurs" and Coach Pop is staring right at his first-ever losing season as a head coach. Aldridge (18.9 & 7.4) is out for the rest of the year, plus center Trey Lyles (6.4 & 5.7), who started 53 of 63 games, is lost for the rest of the way, as well (appendectomy). DeRozan (22.2-5.6-5.6) will be relied on heavily but I'm not sure we can expect Derrick White (10.6) to score 26 points again (it marked a season-high) vs Memphis. Veteran Rudy Gay (10.6) is a valuable player off the bench but his 19 points was almost double his season average. Then there is Lonnie Waller IV, who scored 16 points. Walker is in his second season and Friday played in just his 71st game (averages 5.1 PPG), making only his fifth start. Rookie PG Ja Morant will likely win ROY honors and he scored 22 points and added 11 assists on Friday, Jarren Jackson Jr led the way with 33 points plus 6-8 rookie Clarke added 21 points off the bench. Veteran center Jonas Valanciunas scored 16 points and SG and Dillon Brooks added 15 points. This Memphis team has a scoring 'punch' that past editions rarely had, as evidenced by the fact that the Grizzlies tied the single-season franchise record of five games with 130 or more points that was set back in 2006-07. Memphis is 32-34, giving them a 2 1/2 game lead over the Blazers and a three-game lead over the Spurs. Beat the Spurs here and get some help from the Celtics, who play the Blazers today, and Memphis could be 'smiling' by Sunday night. Memphis can't control what Portland does but I see then winning here "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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08-02-20 | Blazers v. Celtics -4 | Top | 124-128 | Push | 0 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 3:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers edged the Memphis Grizzlies Friday night 140-135 in OT. The win ups Portland's record to 30-37 and leaves them 2 1/2 games behind the 32-34 Grizzlies for the last available playoff spot in the Western Conference. Portland's chase of Memphis resumes on Sunday, when the Blazers face the 43-22 Boston Celtics. The Celtics own the third-best record in the East but after losing Friday 119-112 to Milwaukee, aren't chasing anyone. With just seven games remaining, Boston trails Milwaukee by 10 1/2 games and Toronto by 6 1/2 games in the East. The Celtics' concern now is staying ahead of the 42-24 Miami Heat, who they lead by just 1 1/2 games for the third-seed. Portland expects its guard duo of Lillard and McCollum to lead the way each game and McColum scored 33 points with Lillard adding 29 and nine assists in the OT win over The Grizz. The really good news was the return to play of 7-foot center Jusuf Nurkic, who played his first official game since March 25, 2019. He recorded 18 points, nine rebounds, a career-high-tying six blocks and five assists in 33 minutes as a starter. Starting PF Zach Collins also returned after being out since late October due to an injured left shoulder, adding nine rebounds, seven points and three assists in 37 minutes. As for the Celtics, they fell behind 17-2 to the Bucks on Friday in a 119-122 loss. However, Boston closed the gap to just six at the half and entered the 4th quarter tied. The game was still tied with under 1 1/2 minutes left (107-all), but Milwaukee outscored Boston 12-5 to get the win and cover. All this, with Boston's best player, Jayson Tatum (23.3 & 7.1), shooting just 2-of-18 from the floor (five points). All Star PG Kemba Walker had been out due to an injury to his left knee but scored 16 points in 19 minutes. Head coach Brad Stevens said Walker will still be on a minutes restriction against Portland but Boston will take another 16 points from Walker, here. Brown (22 & 4) and Hayward (17-9-6) both had solid games plus Boston guards Smart (23) and Wannamaker (14) each had strong games off the bench. All games in the Orlando 'bubble' are neutral-site contests but it should be helpful to look at teams' road record before the stoppage of play. Portland was just 11023, while Boston was solid 20-12. Boston's a significantly better team and don't expect Tatum to go 2-of-18 again, or for Portland to shoot 53.8% as a team (Blazers are shooting 64.2% on the season). Lay the points with Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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08-01-20 | Lakers v. Raptors +4 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 8:30. LBJ noted that finding a rhythm on offense might take time for the Los Angeles Lakers. One could say that was the case for the Lakers on Thursday, as they escaped with a 103-101 win over the Clippers. The Lakers shot only 39.0% from the floor, including 11-36 (30.6%) on threes. A.D. led the way with 34 points (eight rebounds), while LBJ (16-11-7) and Kuzma (16) were the only other Lakers in double digits. The win gives the Lakers a 50-14 record, while increasing their edge in the Western Conference standings to 6 1/2 games over the Clippers with only SEVEN seven contests remaining in the abbreviated regular season. Toronto is the defending champions and owned the league's third best record at 46-18, when play was halted in March. However, the Raptors are a distant second in the Eastern Conference behind the 54-12 Milwaukee Bucks. This contest marks Toronto's first game of the restart. James scored the winning basket inside with 12.8 seconds left, converting after getting the rebound of his own missed shot. He also forced Paul George to miss a game-winning three-point attempt at the final horn. "I love having the ball in my hands late in the game, tie game, being down, being up," said James. However, he struggled on offense, shooting only 6-for-19 and committing five turnovers. LA is without starting PG Bradley, who opted out of the restart. His perimeter defense will be missed. The Lakers have gotten decent production from their two-headed center duo, as starter McGee averaged 6.8 & 5.8 and Howard adds 7.4 & 7.3. The Raptors completed the last of three scrimmages last Tuesday, taking a 117-106 loss against the Phoenix Suns. Pascal Siakam led the Raptors with 17 points while Norman Powell added 14. Fred VanVleet finished with 13, and Kyle Lowry had 11 points and seven assists. Of course, the defending champs no longer have Kawhi (also, Danny Green signed with the Lakers as a FA) but the roster is loaded with quality players. More importantly, all are healthy and available for the restart. Up front it's PF Siakam (23.6 & 7.5), SF Anunoby (11.4) plus a center combo of Ibaka (16.0 & 8.3) and Gasol (7.6 & 6.3). Toronto's guard trio of Lowry (19.7-4.8-7.7), VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) and Powell (16.4) match up favorably against ANY backcourt in the league. The Lakers are off an emotional win over the Clippers and I see no reason for them to be laying points here vs the Raptors, who have beaten the Lakers 10 straight times! The Lakers last defeated Toronto back on Nov 30, 2014. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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07-31-20 | Kings -3 v. Spurs | Top | 120-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Restart Opener is on the Sac Kings at 8:00 ET. The Sacramento Kings and the San Antonio Spurs are two of the 22 teams playing in the Orlando 'bubble.' Just nine teams compete in the Eastern Conference, while tonight's participants are among 13 Western Conference teams still competing. The Kings are 3 1/2 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the final Western Conference spot while the Spurs are four out with just eight games to play. Catching the Grizzlies (currently the 8th-seed) is a stretch but both teams still have a chance to stay with four games of the 8th-seed, which could get them into a two-game "play-in" situation. San Antonio's task was harder with the news of power forward LaMarcus Aldridge being lost to season-ending shoulder surgery. The Spurs have made the playoffs in 22 consecutive seasons but will need a strong finishing kick to keep that streak alive. Meanwhile, the Kings are looking to avoid missing the playoffs for the 14th straight season and are currently in a virtual tie with the Portland Trail Blazers for the 9th-seed, a half-game up on the Pelicans and Spurs. Sacramento PF Marvin Bagley III (foot) will miss the rest of the season but realistically, it's NOT a big deal. He averages 14.2 & 7.5 but has played in only 13 of the Kings' 64 games. More notably. PG De'Aaron Fox (20.4 & 6.8 APG) is ready to play after tweaking his left ankle earlier this month plus SF Harrison Barnes (14.7 & 4.8 ) recently rejoined the club after testing positive for COVID-19. Luke Walton has a VERY deep team and recently said that the Kings have fared better this season when Bogdan Bogdanovic (14.5) starts at SG, while Buddy Hield (19.8-4.8-3.1) comes off the bench. He's indicated that will again be the pecking order against San Antonio. SG Bazemore was a late-January pickup and in 21 games has averaged 10.3 PPG. Frontcourt depth comes in center Holmes (12.8 & 8.3) and PF Bjelica (11.9 & 6.4). Popovich has indicated that with Aldridge out, veteran guard DeMar DeRozan (22.2-5.6-5.6) could see time at power forward. He would join center Jakob Poeltl (5.3 & 5.3) and the lineup arrangement would include PGs Dejounte Murray (10.7) and Derrick White (10.4) as starters along with SG Bryn Forbes (11.2). SF Gay (10. & 5.4) will be a valuable contributor but losing center Trey Lyles (6.4 & 5.7), who started 53 of 63 games, to an appendectomy is the kind of under the radar injury that will be a bigger than expected loss. This is NOT "your father's Spurs" and Coach Pop is staring right at his first-ever losing season as a head coach. The Kings have won FOUR of their last five meetings with the Spurs and the reason is, they are the BETTER TEAM. Lay the 'short' price! Good luck...Larry |
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03-10-20 | Suns v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 105-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET.
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03-10-20 | Magic v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mem Grizzlies at 8:05 ET.
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03-09-20 | Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET.
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03-08-20 | Lakers +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-103 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Pacific) is on the LA Lakers at 3:35 ET.
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03-07-20 | Jazz v. Pistons OVER 214 | Top | 111-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ut/Det Over at 7:05 ET.
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03-06-20 | Bucks v. Lakers +1 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* "Best vs the Best Showdown Play is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET.
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03-06-20 | Heat v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NO Pelicans at 8:05 ET.
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03-05-20 | 76ers v. Kings -5 | Top | 125-108 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET.
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03-02-20 | Grizzlies v. Hawks -2 | Top | 127-88 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Hawks at 7:35 ET.
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03-01-20 | Raptors v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 118-133 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 6:05 ET.
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02-29-20 | Rockets v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 111-110 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Bos Celtics at 8:35 ET.
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