|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|06-16-21||Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights||Top||3-2||Win||100||29 h 55 m||Show|
My 10 PUCKLINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Canadiens.
I had a play on Montreal in Game 1 and that obviously came up short. The Canadiens had been on quite the roll before that Game 1 performance, and they're going to now have to get creative here if they want to avoid an 0-2 hole.
These teams are similar in many regards, but the Canadiens are going to have to dial up the pressure on the defensive end if they have any hopes of getting back into this series.
Montreal though has acutally done exceptionally well in this spot for bettors, as note that it's 6-0 in its last six when playing with one days rest.
The Canadiens are also still 5-1 their last six as an underdog and 7-1 in their last eight against teams with winning records.
The odds are stacked against them, but I think Montreal makes the necessary adjustments to make Game 2 much more competitive. In a contest which I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.
The play is Montreal on the puck-line.
|06-15-21||Islanders v. Lightning -1.5||Top||2-4||Win||145||31 h 31 m||Show|
My 10* PUCK-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Lightning.
I had a play on the Islanders in Game 1, and they cashed out at +175.
Here though I think they're going to be completely satisfied with having already earned the split, while I expect Tampa to respond and risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to avoid the 0-2 hole.
These teams are very similar on both ends of the ice, except Tampa's offense is better. I said in my Game 1 analysis that New York had the defense to pull off an upset not only in Game 1, but in this series as well.
But to do that, many different things are going to have to fall into place for the Islanders. Do I think that New York is going to sweep the Lightning? Of course not. Do I think that the Isles will take both of these opening games in Tampa?
I don't either. I think that Tampa is going to respond and win today. But not only, win BIG. As note that the Lightning are a near-perfect 7-1 in their last eight playoff games in trying to revenge a home loss in which they were held to one goal or shutout in.
Expect the Bolts to cruise to a sizeable victory in Game 2 and play on the puck-line.
|05-31-21||Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -1.5||3-1||Loss||-100||12 h 50 m||Show|
8* SITUATIONAL POWER-PLAY on the Leafs (PUCKLINE).
Toronto is the better team that's just been outplayed by a desperate Canadiens team the last two games.
It's difficult to beat a team three times in a row. This Game 7 sets up exactly the same way in which the Knights and Wild just played.
Minnesota clawed back and won two straight to push to a Game 7, and then the Knights destroyed the Wild 6-2. I had a big 10* +165 winner on the Knights in that one on the puck line.
And that's what I'm suggesting to do here as well. Toronto has major advantages on both ends of the ice. It also has the Game 7 home ice advantage as well.
Finally, note that the Leafs are 7-1 in their last eight in trying to avenge back-to-back losses against an opponent.
I don't only expect the Leafs to win Game 7 of this opening round playoff series, I expect them to win BIG.
The play is Toronto on the puckline.
|05-28-21||Wild v. Golden Knights -1.5||Top||2-6||Win||165||29 h 34 m||Show|
10* PUCK-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Golden Knights.
The Golden Knights are big favorits in Game 7.
The Wild have earned back-to-back victories, including a commanding 3-0 victory in Game 6, but I believe Minnesota will now be "gassed" and I expect the opportunistic Knights to take full advantage.
Las Vegas has been outplayed over these last two games, but it has the experience and veteran leadership, as well as home ice to calmly bounce back in this position in my opinion.
Minnesota averages 3.21 GPG, which is eighth overall, but it's very average defensively, conceding 2.84, which is ranked 15th. The fact that the Wild managed to just blank the Knights as well, doesn't bode well for them here in Game 7 in my opinion.
The Knights though are among the league leaders on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.39 GPG, which ranks third, while allowing 2.18, which ranks first.
I say that Las Vegas is the better team, that's just been outplayed the last games. I say that Minnesota is now dog tired and it's going to fall flat here.
However, I don't think that the Knights will just win here, I believe they're going to win by a signficant margin.
The play is Las Vegas on the puck line.
|05-25-21||Predators +1.5 v. Hurricanes||2-3||Win||100||31 h 51 m||Show|
6* PUCK-LINE POWER-PLAY on the Predators.
This series is all tied up at two games apiece.
Carolina won the first two games at home, but Nashville has won the last two, both in OT in its own building.
Now the series shifts back to Carolina and I'm expecting another really tight battle, one which could easily see extra periods as well.
And that's the reason why I'm going to lay this price, to ensure that if that does happen, that we're covered with the extra 1.5 goals on the puckline.
"Momentum" is a very real, almost tangible factors in the playoffs, and the momentum in this series has clearly shifted.
The Predators don't score as much as Carolina, but their defensive numbers are almost identical (Carolina allows 2.39 GPG, while Nashville allows 2.75.)
We've seen a lot of scoring over the last two games, and they've been very competitive. Making adjustments in the playoffs is key to success, and the Predators have done just that.
Now it's time for the home side to do the same. In this all-important Game 5, look for these normally tough-nosed defensive teams to indeed double-down on that end and then look for this total to stay well under once the final horn sounds.
The play is indeed the under.
|05-19-21||Predators v. Hurricanes -1.5||Top||0-3||Win||157||27 h 21 m||Show|
10* PUCK-LINE PERFECT STORM on the Hurricanes.
Nashville threw its best shot at Carolina in Game 1 and it still got crushed 5-2. I expect a similar final discrepany in score here as well.
Nashville got to this point with its tough defensive play, as it entered the playoffs allowing 2.7 GPG. The Predators only average 2.7 GPG, and I believe they're going to once again struggle to find any momentum here vs. this Canes team which concedes just 2.3 GPG.
Carolina is equally adept on the other end of the ice though, averaging 3.1 goals per game.
It's also very interesting to note that the Predators are now a poor 3-7 in thier last ten as an underdog, while the Hurricanes are 6-1 in their last seven after scoring four or more goals in their previous outing.
Carolina not only wins, it wins BIG.
Lay the 1.5 goals for healthy return!
|05-17-21||Blues v. Avalanche -1.5||Top||1-4||Win||105||15 h 56 m||Show|
10* PUCKKLINE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Avalanche.
Colorado steamrolled its way into the playoffs, finishing as the President Cup Trophy winner.
I don't only expect to see Colorado win this game, but I expect it to win handily.
The margin of error is slim for St. Louis. In all honesty, I just can't see where its offense is going to come from. It only averages 2.9 GPG. It concedes 2.9 as well. As I said, clearly St. Louis is living on the edge most nights.
Colorado on the other hand averages a whopping 3.5 GPG, while allowing only 2.30.
For arguments sake, let's call the goaltending units a "wash" in this series. Colorado still has such huge advantages, that I'd almost consider laying -2.5 goals in this opening game.
But we're not doing that. I'm going to play the -1.5 puck line here as I look for the Avs to send an early message to the Blues, and to the rest of the league that they're the team to beat.
Lay the 1.5 goals on the Avs.
|03-15-19||Ducks v. Avalanche -1.5||5-3||Loss||-100||14 h 25 m||Show|
My 8* Puck-Line Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Avalanche (9:05 EST).
The Ducks come in off a loss in Arizona just last night, putting them 12 points out of eighth place with ten games remaining. The Avs have had three whole nights off and their primed now to try and finish up the season on a high note, starting with this favorable home matchup vs. this “dog tired’ Ducks team.
Note that Anaheim has lost its last five games in the second game of the back-to-back scenario.
Colorado’s been off since an 3-0 loss to Carolina on Monday. The Avs are currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, but they have plenty of opportunity to solidify a spot over the final month.
Colorado is 4-1 in its last five as a home fav in the -150 to -200 range, while Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation.
I’m laying the 1.5 goals for the healthy return and expecting a blowout once the final horn sounds.
|03-28-18||Coyotes v. Golden Knights -1.5||Top||3-2||Loss||-100||31 h 11 m||Show|
My 10* PUCK-LINE Las Vegas Insider is on the Las Vegas Golden Knights (10:05 EST).
Arizona comes in off a 4-1 road victory over Tampa Bay, while Vegas enters off a 4-1 home victory over Colorado. Arizona is expected to send out Mike Smith, while Marc-Andre Fleury will get the nod between the pipes for the home side.
The Coyotes have won 13 of their last 21 overall, but they’re still just 11-26 on the road, averaging 2.54 goals and conceding 3.38 in those contests.
After going 2-4 over their previous six, the Knights bounced back with the 4-1 home win over the Avs most recently.
Vegas is 27-11 at home and it averages 3.61 goals and concedes 2.47 in those contests.
Fleury will be a difference maker tonight, as he’s now 28-15 on the year, including 15-9 with a 2.34 GAA at home (note that he’s 7-5 with a 1.98 GAA lifetime against the Coyotes as well.)
Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is just 12-26 in its last 38 following a victory, while Vegas is 24-9 when playing on one days rest.
After their big 4-1 upset in Tampa Bay, everything points to a predictable letdown here for the ‘Yotes. Expect Vegas to lay the hammer down from start to finish.
Play on the Knights on the puck line.
|03-25-18||Canucks +1.5 v. Stars||Top||4-1||Win||100||30 h 20 m||Show|
My 10* PUCK-LINE Las Vegas Insider is on the Vancouver Canucks (7:05 EST).
Vancouver comes to town off a 4-1 road loss to St. Louis, while Dallas enters off a 3-2 home setback to Boston.
The Canucks average 2.57 GPG and they concede 3.24. Goaltender Jacob Markstrom is 19-28 with a 2.78 GAA on the year, including 9-15 with a 2.58 GAA on the road. Note that he’s 1-1 with a sharp 1.27 GAA lifetime against Dallas.
The Stars average 2.80 GPG and they concede 2.68. Netminder Kari Lehtonen is 12-15 with a 2.54 GAA this year, including 4-4 with a 3.10 GAA at home.
Dallas has been much better at home than on the road, but note that the Stars come into this one having lost seven straight, averaging only 2.10 goals in those games.
I’ll point out as well that Vancouver is still 10-8 (+6.1 units) this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Dallas is a poor 4-8 (-6.4 units) this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent.
The Canucks play with the added motivation of “spoiler” here as they look to add to the Stars’ playoff issues with another upset. And while the upset isn’t out of the question here, in a contest which I envision being decided late (or in extra time), I’m going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance.
Play on the Canucks on the puck line.
|03-05-18||Coyotes v. Oilers -1.5||Top||3-4||Loss||-100||30 h 35 m||Show|
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE WAGER OF THE MONTH on the Edmonton Oilers (9:05 EST).
I believe the conditions are right for a lop-sided home victory tonight.
Arizona comes to town off a 2-1 home win over Ottawa (I had the Coyotes in that one), while the Oilers check in off a 3-2 home loss to the Rangers.
The Coyotes have won seven of their last nine, but they still have the fewest points in the league. Regression seems imminent and suffice it to say, I expect that decline to start this evening.
Arizona averages 2.40 GPG on the road and it concedes 3.43. Goaltender Antti Raanta is 15-21 with a 2.43 GAA overall and 6-8 with a 2.70 GAA on the road.
The Oilers come in desperate here as they’ve lost three straight. So far Edmonton is 13-19 at home this year, averaging 2.78 goals and conceding 3.53 in those contests. Goaltender Cam Talbot is 22-28 with a 3.12 GAA this year, including 13-14 with a 3.22 GAA at home.
I think it’s significant to note though that Arizona is just 4-15 (-10.9 units) against the division this year, while the Oilers are 12-8 (+4.8 units) in the same position.
Edmonton is under the microscope on home ice tonight and I look for the team to respond in a big way. Great value here in my opinion.
Play on Edmonton the puck-line.
|10-06-17||Golden Knights v. Stars -1.5||Top||2-1||Loss||-100||26 h 38 m||Show|
My 10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Dallas Stars (8:30 EST).
I think the talent and chemistry level discrepancies on the ice tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 goals for the small “plus-money” return.
The Golden Knights make their NHL debut and they’ll have Marc Andre Fleury in net. James Neal from the Predators is also one of the main stars of the team. Note though that Neal is listed as quetionable for this one, so if he does play, it will likely be at under 100% capacity.
Overall the offense looks decent for the Knights, but clearly the team will need some time to build chemistry. Calvin Pickard is Fleury’s backup.
Dallas missed the postseason last year, after finishing with the most points in the West the year before.
The Stars added Alexander Radulov, who had 18 goals for the Habs last season. Ben Bishop was 18-20 with a 2.54 GAA for the Lightning and Kings last year and no doubt is a big upgrade between the pipes for Dallas on the whole.
There will be on complacency or mercy from the Stars tonight after their dismal season in 2016/17. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The book is still clearly out on the Vegas Knights, who I expect will stumble and throw up the white flag early in this one. Play on Dallas on the puck-line.
|05-14-17||Predators v. Ducks -1.5||Top||3-5||Win||275||26 h 30 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Anaheim Ducks on the “puck-line” (7:30 EST).
This is do-or-die for the Ducks, as a 2-0 hole heading back to Nashville would likely be just too much for the team to overcome for a second straight series after the Oilers did the same thing in the last round.
Anaheim had its chance, but came up short in the OT period in Game 1.
In Game 5 beween the Penguins and Capitals, I took Washington -1.5 +170 on the PUCK-LINE. The Capitals would go on to take that one 4-2. And just like in that one, I expect the Ducks not only to win this game tonight, but to win big.
Clearly it won’t be easy, as Nashville is currently the No. 1 ranked defense in the playoffs behind Pekka Rinne, who is 9-2 in the postseason with a 1.41 GAA.
Ducks’ netminder John Gibson is 7-4 with a 2.78 GAA in the playoffs so far. He made a career-high 43 saves in Game 1.
The Predators own the No. 1 defense, but Anaheim is no slouch on the offensive end, it comes into this one ranked No. 2 with an average of 3.08 GPG.
And I’ll point out that despite the Game 1 victory, the road team is still only 2-5 in the last seven meetings between these clubs, while Anaheim is 5-1 in its last six after scoring two goals or less in its previous game.
Also note that the Ducks are 7-3 in their last ten when playing on one days rest.
I like Anaheim to win this game and I think it’s worth laying the 1.5 goals for the massive payout.
|05-06-17||Penguins v. Capitals -1.5||Top||2-4||Win||170||55 h 57 m||Show|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Capitals on the PUCK-LINE (7:15 EST).
So far I’m a perfect 4-0 in this series, taking the underdog every single time. Last time out I had the Pens and they’d rally for a 6-2 win with captain Sidney Crosby sidelined with a head injury.
However, I think this now sets up as classic “letdown” spot for the defending champs and I look for the clearly desperate home side to not only win this game, but win big.
Washington has been getting plenty of shots on net, but so far that hasn’t been enough, as Pittsburgh is getting above average goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury, combined with smothering defensive play.
But I think Pittsburgh comes into this one gassed. Crosby could play tonight, but clearly he’s not going to be even close to 100% capacity.
I’ll point out as well that the Pens are just 1-2 (-1.3 units) in their last three after scoring six goals or more, while Washington is 12-3 (+8.2 units) this year when playing on two days rest.
Play on Washington on the puck-line.
|05-26-16||Lightning +1.5 v. Penguins||1-2||Win||100||33 h 9 m||Show|
My 7* PUCK-LINE ROUT is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (8:05 EST).
Could we actually see overtime in Game 7? I think the chance is pretty high that we’ll see some extra time and because of that, I’m going to lay the price for the extra goal-and-a-half of insurance. Tampa Bay has delivered every time that it’s been backed into a corner so far in the postseason and there’s no reason not to think that it will once again be ready to play tonight. Is Pittsburgh rookie goaltender Matt Murray really that much better than Tampa netminder Andrei Vasilevsky? The answer is “no,” these two are very evenly matched, each has the capability to pull off a shutout or go the other way and let in five goals. These teams are also very similar across the board, two dynamic and deep offenses backed by some of the best defense and special teams in the league. I’ll point out though that the Lightning are 17-7 (+7.3 units) this season after a loss by two goals or more, while the Penguins are 19-20 (-8.8 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous game. Tampa +1.5 goals is the move in Game 7.
|04-15-16||Predators +1.5 v. Ducks||3-2||Win||100||103 h 11 m||Show|
My 5* Fan Appreciation Puck Line Special is the Nashville Predators (10:30 EST).
We’ve already seen a couple of upsets in the playoffs, including our selections on the Islanders and Sharks on Thursday night. I had a puck-line wager on the Flyers last night and it came up just short. We bounce back here though as I think the Predators can give the Ducks a run for their money (in Game 1 anyways) and in a contest which could very early see extra time, I’m going to pay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. Nashville ranks 12th in the league in scoring, putting up 2.7 GPG, led by Filip Forsberg, who put up 33 goals on the year. Defensively it ranks 14th in goals allowed, allowing 2.6 GPG. Pekka Rinne posted a 2.72 GAA on the road this season and is 12-9 with a 2.29 GAA in his career vs. Anaheim. The Ducks are led by Corey Perry, who finished with 34 goals in the regular season, overall Anaheim ranks 17th in the league in offense, putting up 2.6 GPG. The Ducks are ranked No. 1 in the league in goals allowed at 2.3 GPG, goaltender John Gibson was 13-10 with a 1.80 GAA at home and is 1-0 with a 2.00 vs. Nashville. The Predators have the edge on offense and will be looking to push the pace of this one from start to finish. I think the visitors will find the back of the net a couple of times and that this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on Nashville on the puck line.