At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (13-2) has won three games in a row as well as eight of their last nine contests after their 28-14 win against Texas in the College Football Semifinals as a 4.5-point favorite on January 10th. Notre Dame (14-1) has won 13 games in a row after their 27-24 upset win against Penn State as a 1-point underdog on January 9th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: On paper, there is a talent mismatch between these two teams. Ohio State has 15 players on their roster who are graded as a five-star recruit coming out of high school. Notre Dame has only one five-star recruit— and injuries all season have diluted their ideal talent base for this ultimate game. And I remain steadfast that this Fighting Irish team reached this championship game because of a favorable schedule. In my deep dive on them in the preseason, I observed that the closest thing to a signature victory in the first two seasons under head coach Marcus Freeman was either a victory against a mediocre Clemson team two seasons ago or a win against a mediocre USC team last year. They beat another mediocre Texas A&M team to begin the season before getting upset by Northern Illinois. Granted they then went on to beat all the service academy and second-tier ACC opponents on their schedule. They beat USC again — but surrendering 360 passing yards to a former UNLV quarterback who began the season as a second-stringer raises serious doubt about the quality of their pass defense. In the playoffs, they overwhelmed an Indiana team that also benefited from a soft schedule. Then the Irish beat Georgia in what is now the top victory in the Freeman era — but that Bulldogs team did not have any first-team All-Americans in what was the least threatening roster head coach Kirby Smart has had in his tenure there perhaps ever. Georgia also had a sophomore quarterback make his first career start in that game — and yet except for a 54-second span to end the half and start the second half when Notre Dame scored 17 unanswered points, that game was even. And then in the Spiderman Social Media Meme Bowl against Penn State (I consider both programs to be mirror images of each other), somebody had to win — and the unity and cohesion that Freeman has brought to his team was just enough to overcome the Nittany Lions finding ways to lose big games under head coach James Franklin. In this instance, it was the luck of the Irish that led to Penn State quarterback Drew Allar’s bad interception late in that game on a potential game-winning drive which gave Freeman’s team the ball almost already in field goal position. Sorry, I just don’t give much credit for salvaging a victory against Penn State after trying to give that game away in the fourth quarter themselves — and due to quarterback Riley Leonard throwing two interceptions, it was the first time since the upset loss to Northern Illinois when Notre Dame lost the turnover battle. Can the Irish win this game without winning the turnover battle? The Buckeyes have only five turnovers in their last six games — and two of those giveaways were against Michigan. So perhaps the deeper question is: can Notre Dame replicate the Wolverines' formula for success? These two teams are now playing each other for the third time in three straight seasons. Ohio State won at home by a 21-10 score in 2022 before pulling out a 17-14 win in South Bend last season. Three points from those games. First, the Fighting Irish scored only 24 combined points in those two games (more on that below) Second, both were played in September when Buckeyes’ head coach Ryan Day was still keeping his playbook limited. Third, after former Notre Dame head coach Lou Holtz called out Day’s team for being too soft, Day became obsessed with proving how tough he/his team was — and that dictated a run-heavy game script. Day would after the game call out the septuagenarian for daring to challenge the toughness of his group (something only insecure people feel the need to do). Day’s demons would later get the best of him this season as his obsession to prove to the world how tough his team/he is played right into Michigan’s hands in that upset loss in late November. Day was made into a laughingstock after that loss — but the playoffs are his redemption tour. If there is one thing he is not going to do in this game, it is not getting his uber-talented wide receivers involved enough. Relying on pass-first game plans in the playoffs, the Buckeyes raced out to a 21-0 first quarter lead against Tennessee, a 34-8 halftime against Oregon, and then a 7-0 lead and a 14-7 lead against the Longhorns. Notre Dame cannot afford to fall behind by more than one score because they are very limited in the passing game. The Fighting Irish lacks wide receivers who can separate — and this lack of explosiveness and a reliable number one option allows defenses to play their strong safety in the box. Leonard is not a dynamic passer either with accuracy issues and not a particularly strong arm. He is more of a running threat — but a spy can address that. He has passed for only 514 passing yards in the three playoff games. The best unit in this game is the Ohio State defense. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play two weeks ago after generating 496 total yards from 7.3 YPP in their earlier meeting. The Buckeyes' pass rush has been ferocious in the postseason led by defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer. Knowles' decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss to the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field — and Downs will be given the spy responsibilities on Leonard to prevent him from big gains from his legs. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. They hold their opponents to just under 23 points below their season scoring average. A limited offense is not going to score on an elite defense like this — especially given Irish running back Jeremiah Love’s knee injury leaving him far from 100% and fellow sophomore Jadarian Price’s struggles to take over as the lead back. The last 16 teams to win the National Championship Game who failed to score at least 21 points have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of those games. Ohio State has scored at least 31 points in 11 of their 15 games this season — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after winning their last game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. The Fighting Irish are outscoring their opponents by +22.7 Points-Per-Game — but the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame needs to play a third-straight lower-scoring game against Ohio State to keep this one close — and they do rank second in the nation by only giving up 14.3 PPG. But the Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 12 of their 15 games the last three seasons against teams who do not allow more than 17.0 PPG (and two of those games were against Michigan). 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Ohio State Buckeyes (287) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286) in the Cotton Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (12-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 41-21 victory against Oregon as a 2.5-point favorite in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals contest on New Year’s Day last Wednesday. Texas (13-2) has won seven of their last eight games after their 39-31 win in overtime against Arizona State as a 13.5-point favorite last Wednesday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes’ explosive offense may get most of the attention but it is their defense that I consider the most underrated unit in this contest. Only Oregon has scored more than 17 points against them all season -- and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles made some adjustments from that regular season battle which resulted in the Ducks only gaining 276 yards last week from a mere 3.9 Yards-Per-Play. Oregon went into that game scoring 35.9 Points-Per-Game. The Buckeyes pass rush was ferocious last week as they registered 13 tackles for loss. Defensive ends J.T Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer have taken their games to another level in the playoffs by combing for 7.5 sacks, 16 Quarterback Pressures, and seven batted down passes. Knowles decision to move from a 4-3-4 to a nickel 4-2-5 base formation after the loss the Ducks in the regular season really paid dividends. Moving Jordan Hancock to the single high safety position in a Cover-1 scheme freed up Caleb Downs to roam the field. The Buckeyes’ defense leads the nation whether it is using the SP+ metrics from ESPN’s Bill Connelly or the Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed numbers. In the playoffs, they have held their two opponents to -7 fewer points than even the bullish SP+ ratings projected. The 3.8 Yards-Per-Play allowed in the playoffs is also the lowest of all qualifying teams. The Longhorns offensive line may not be at full strength given the knee injury of right tackle Cameron Williams. He has practiced all week after not playing last week against the Sun Devils. Regardless, he was the weak link in Texas’ two losses to Georgia this season. Left tackle Kelvin Banks is good — but he can’t block both Tuimoloau and Sawyer. The Longhorns scored only 15 and 19 points against the Bulldogs — and they only managed to score 17 points against a Texas A&M team that also had an elite defensive front. Ohio State has played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Texas scores 34.4 Points-Per-Game — and the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams scoring 37 or more PPG. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian shifted to a power run ball control offense in the second half of the season — and he will want to slow this game down with long possessions to keep the explosive Ohio State offense off the field. The Longhorns rushed for at least 210 yards in four of their last seven games. Running the ball will also protect his elite defense and keep them fresh in the second half. Texas ranks second in the nation in Yards-Per-Play Allowed and Points-Per-Drive Allowed — and they rank third in Opponents Expected Points per Play Allowed. The beleaguered Buckeyes offensive line has not allowed a sack in their two playoff games — but this remains a shaky unit that lost its best two players to injury before getting exposed by Michigan. The Texas defensive front is one of the best in the nation — they ranked 14th in the nation Sacks per opponent dropback. They have registered multiple sacks in six straight games after registering three sacks and 18 Quarterback Pressures last week. When Ohio State quarterback Will Howard has a clean pocket, he is lethal - but he becomes very ordinary when under pressure as the Wolverines demonstrated. Howard now faces the best secondary he will have faced all season. Cornerback Jahdae Barron won the Jim Thorpe Award and has the talent to match up with freshman phenom wideout Jeremiah Smith. With cornerback Malik Muhammed and free safety Andrew Mukaba, the Longhorns ranked third in the nation in Opponent Expected Points per Play Allowed per dropback. The Buckeyes’ offense can struggle if they get off schedule. They rank just 85th in the nation on third down needing seven or more yards from which they convert only 23.3% of the time. Howard is not as effective in the passing game if his scrambling is less of a threat. Texas has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. They hold their opens to 111.9 rushing Yards-Per-Game —  and Ohio State has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 120 rushing YPG. The Buckeyes score 36.4 PPG and generate 263.4 passing YPG. The Longhorns have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. Ohio State gives up only  246.4 total YPG — and in their 7 games under Sarkisian playing a team that does not allow more than 310 YPG, 5 of those games finished Under the Total. The Longhorns have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: The Buckeyes have played 17 of their last 26 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of those 11 games Under the Total when played away from home. In their 6 games played on a neutral field under head coach Ryan Day as a favorite, 4 of those games finished Under the Total. In the 6 games Texas has played under Sarkisian as an underdog, 4 of these games finished Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (285) and the Texas Longhorns (286). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273) in the Sugar Bowl Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-2) has won four games in a row after their 22-19 upset win against Texas as a 3-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game on December 7th. Notre Dame (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 27-17 win against Indiana as a 6.5-point favorite in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a strange Georgia team this season. None of their players were consensus All-Americans which is a first for head coach Kirby Smart in his ninth year running the program. But the roster is still stacked with blue-chip talent — and they will be the more talented team on the field today. But what this team lacks in star power this season, it makes up for in grit. The Bulldogs have won four games this season after trailing or tied in the fourth quarter. The season-ending injury to quarterback Carson Beck is a tough blow — but the team still rallied from a 6-3 halftime deficit to beat Texas with sophomore Gunner Stockton under center. The loss of Beck will certainly remove any level of complacency for the rest of the roster — everyone has to step up. And it’s not like Stockton is a bum. He is a four-star recruit who college football analyst Phil Steele listed as his second-rated quarterback in the 2023 class. He completed 12 of 16 passes for 71 yards in the second half against the Longhorns. He is a dual-threat so expect him to be used in the ground game. The Bulldogs may have an initial edge in this game since offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has had almost a month to develop a new game plan specific to his skillset. He will lack the vertical threat in the passing game that Beck offered — but against the Fighting Irish whose strength is their secondary, perhaps that is a blessing in disguise. Besides, it’s not as if Georgia’s blueprint for success under Smart is a gunslinging quarterback. The program that has won national championships with Stetson Bennett and reached the championship game with Jake Fromm will be just fine if Stockton is only a vanilla Jake Fromm (which, I know, is redundant). With Nick Saban retired and Jim Harbaugh back in the NFL, Smart is hands down the best coach in college football — and that starts schematically and continues with preparation and then motivation. Now let’s talk about Marcus Freeman whose biggest victory in his three seasons as Notre Dame’s head coach was when they beat the Hoosiers 12 days ago. The only team that finished in the College Football Playoff Committee’s top 25 final rankings was Army — and that was before they got upset by Navy. While I don’t blame them for Texas A&M, USC, Florida State, and Louisville not meeting preseason expectations, I don’t give them a ton of credit for beating them either. The Fighting Irish are Flat Track Bullies whose physical style of play overwhelms most of their opponents — but now they play a team that is bigger, more skilled, and who play better competition on a week-to-week basis. And now they are without their best pass rusher after defensive tackle Rylie Mills’ season-ending injury against Indiana. Georgia has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games played on a neutral field with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: If a college football team is playing in January, then they are likely to be big games (save for the few minor bowl games being played in the next few days). Georgia has played seven games in January under Smart — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of those 7 contests. Notre Dame has only played one game in January under Freeman — and they did not cover. The Bulldogs were built for this moment while the Irish are hoping they are prepared for the step up in competition. 25* CFB Playoff Quarterfinals Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (274) plus the point(s) versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (273). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268) in the Fiesta Bowl and Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Penn State (12-2) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the College Football Playoffs with their 38-10 victory against SMU as a 9-point favorite on December 21st. Boise State (12-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-7 victory against UNLV as a four-point favorite in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on December 6th. This game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both teams should score their share of points tonight. No one has been able to slow down the Broncos running back Ashton Jeanty. San Diego State did everything they could to tempt Boise State into avoiding handing him the ball and relying on quarterback Maddux Nelson — but Jeanty still rushed for 149 yards from 4.8 Yards-Pe-Carry against stacked boxes. Jeanty ran for 192 yards from 7.7 YPC early in the season against Oregon. On paper, the Nittany Lions rank fourth in Opponent Line Yards Allowed — but they are only 45th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed in 43% of their carries. But digging deeper, those numbers may be propped up by the softer opponents on their schedule. USC ran for 186 yards against them before Ohio State rushed for 176 yards two weeks later. In the Big Ten Championship Game, Oregon rushed for 183 yards against them. Say what you want about Boise State not having the same level of talent on their offensive line (although injured center Mason Randolph returned in their last two games) — but Jeanty does so much of his work after the first contact. Almost 1900 of his 2497 rushing yards this season were after contact. The Broncos deploy outside zone reads much like the Ducks, as opposed to the inside zone, reads that SMU relied on. If Jeanty has success and can approach or eclipse the 176 rushing yards mark by the Buckeyes, that should unlock the Boise State passing attack. USC, Ohio State, and Oregon generated 6.3 Yards-Per-Play and scored 31.7 Points-Per-Game against this Nittany Lions defense. The Broncos rank fifth in the nation by scoring touchdowns in 76.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. They generate 251.0 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and Penn State has played 4 straight Overs against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Boise State has played 12 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a straight-up win. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams outside the Mountain West Conference — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total as an underdog. What Penn State lacks in explosiveness, they make up for in ruthless efficiency. They rank 10th in Rushing Success Rate behind the one-two punch of running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. They combined to rush for 293 yards against the Ducks. The passing game ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Broncos defense does rank 23rd in Havoc Rate and second in total sacks — but Nittany Lions’ quarterback Drew Allar has not thrown an interception in his 125 dropbacks when facing pressure. Penn State ranks 22nd by scoring touchdowns on 71.7% of their trips inside the Red Zone. And Boise State may be giving in the Big Plays department since they rank 109th in Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 130th by allowing 7.6% of their opponent’s plays to result in 20 or more yards. One of the biggest problems is simply fundamental tackling which is an issue that seems to follow the Broncos defensive coordinator Erik Chinander wherever he goes. Their defense ranks second-to-last in Pro Football Focus’ Tackling Grade — and they are also second-to-last in broken and missed tackles after blowing 29 tackles in their last two games. Penn State is the wrong offense to make tackling mistakes with since it offsets the lack of speed they have at wide receiver which can make them too dependent on long drives. The Nittany Lions have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total on the road after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a win by 17 or more points. They have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a win at home by 28 or more points. Furthermore, they have played 4 straight Overs away from home after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. Additionally, they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range — and they have played 8 straight games away from home Over the Total when the Total is set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos are outscoring their opponents by +17.2 PPG — and Penn State has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Boise State has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Penn State Nittany Lions (267) and the Boise State Broncos (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216) in the first round of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset win against SMU as a 2.5-point underdog in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Texas (11-2) had won five games in a row before their 22-19 upset loss in overtime against Georgia as a 3-point favorite on December 7th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Head coach Steve Sarkisian has reigned in his offensive play-calling as the season has moved on — this appears to be a reflection of his thoughts on quarterback Quinn Ewers. Since his 43 attempts in the Longhorns' first meeting with the Bulldogs on October 13th, Ewers did not throw more than 37 times in his next five games — and he averaged only 31 attempts per game during that stretch. But in the rematch against Georgia, Ewers was asked to throw the ball 46 times because the running game did not get any traction against the Bulldogs’ defensive front. Texas only gained 31 rushing yards from 28 carries. Ewers did throw for 358 yards but he also threw two interceptions. He has nine interceptions on the season. In the overtime session, Sarkisian was dialing up safe but frustratingly ineffective fade routes — and that seemed to be indicative of a lack of trust in Ewers. Too often, Ewers floats his throws. He also struggles to throw the ball to make his receivers separate and get open. These weaknesses in his game limit the viable options Sarkisian can use in his playbook. Ewers lacks mobility as well. It is telling that the Longhorns did not score more than 20 points in three of their last four games. But their defense remains elite. They limited Georgia to just 277 yards of offense. The 22 points they gave up (after overtime) were the third most points they have surrendered all season. They held ten of their opponents to 17 points or less. For the season, they only gave up 249.9 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 12.5 Points-Per-Game. Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total at home. They have also played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They have also played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record. Clemson only gained 326 yards of offense in their upset win against SMU. The Tigers' offense has hit a wall when facing top-level competition. In their two games against SEC opponents, Georgia and South Carolina, they only scored 17 combined points. They failed to score more than 24 points on five occasions this season.  Clemson generated 454.9 total YPG which resulted in 35.5. PPG — but those numbers drop by -70.9 YPG and -8.2 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Tigers have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a win against a fellow ACC rival. They enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin against the Mustangs — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. Clemson’s defense remains very good led by several talented sophomores. They held eight of their opponents to no more than 20 points. The Tigers have played 8 of their last 9 games on the road Under the Total — and they have played 4 straight Unders with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams winning 75% or more of their games.

FINAL TAKE: The Longhorns score 33.6 PPG — and Clemson has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. Texas has played 5 straight Unders against teams who score 31 or more PPG. 25* CFB Playoff First Round Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (215) and the Texas Longhorns (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 17-14 upset loss at home against South Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last Saturday. SMU (11-1) is on a nine-game winning streak after their 38-6 win against California as a 12.5-point favorite on Sunday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: There is an incorrect narrative regarding this game that there is public money on Clemson simply because of their brand name. The books initially made the Tigers the favorite in this game — the Circa Sportsbook in downtown Las Vegas which caters to sharp bettors and is happy to take big action made Clemson a field goal favorite in this game. It has been “sharp” money and the public that has prompted the books to move the line to where SMU is the favorite. I think the original assumptions that led to the Tigers being made the favorite are sound. The Mustangs have thrived on a weak strength of schedule that Jeff Sagarin ranks as the 63rd most difficult and that ESPN ranks as the 75th most difficult in the nation. Their best victories have been against who? Louisville? Pittsburgh. They lost to BYU. Their inaugural season in the ACC fetid a conference schedule that avoided Miami (FL), Clemson, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. And while their athletic director gets into social media scuffles regarding the strength of their resume, the players and coaching staff are under enormous pressure that a loss in this game will not just cost them a first-round bye in the College Football Playoff but outside of the 12-team tournament all together (as playoff commissioner Wade Manuel confirmed as being very possible). This is a lot of pressure for any football team — especially one making their debut in a Power Five/Four conference. As it is, SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win at home by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. All those past games were played since Rhett Lashlee took over as their head coach. The Mustangs have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after holding their last opponent to 14 or fewer points. I suspect that the Clemson brand is pretty toxic right now amongst bettors given their three losses, the lack of recent playoff appearances, and head coach Dabo Swinney’s stubbornness to get active in the transfer portal. But this is a great rebound spot for his team that does not feel the same pressure as SMU after their loss last week to the Gamecocks — but the Tigers still make the playoffs by taking the ACC title with a win tonight. Clemson has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss in the last three seasons. They go back on the road after playing their last two games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a two-game home stand. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games away from home when playing on six days of rest between games. The Tigers still have a solid defense that ranks 30th in Opponent Expected Points Added Per Play Allowed — and they rank 20th in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. This defense is an opportunistic unit whose 23 takeaways rank as the 12th most in the nation. They rank 21st in interception rate and rank in the top ten in Havoc Rate. The Clemson offense is showing signs of getting more explosive. Freshman wide receiver Bryant Wesco was targeted ten times last week — he is averaging a healthy 2.3 Yards-Per-Route-Run this season. Even in the loss to the Gamecocks they generated 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry and gained at least two first downs in six of their 12 drives. They enjoyed a Success Rate of 65% on their 54 standard downs last week. Quarterback Clint Klubnik has eight touchdown passes and only two interceptions since Week 11 — and he has gotten more aggressive in moving the ball with his legs. He ran ten times for 62 yards last week and scored two touchdowns. The Tigers have been tested in games against Georgia and South Carolina. Clemson has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 32 games away from home either in true road games or on neutral fields. They have covered the point spread in all 4 of their games as an underdog this season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games on a neutral field as an underdog of up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have a huge edge in coaching experience in big games with Swinney and his staff. They have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December which are all either ACC Championship Games, bowl games, or playoff games. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (117) plus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Iowa State (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 29-21 victory against Kansas State as a 2-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona State (10-2) has won five games in a row after their 49-7 victory at Arizona as a 7.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES PLUS (OR MINUS) THE POINT(S): Iowa State has never won a Big 12 championship in the 110 years in the conference — but they have been in this position recently under head coach Matt Campbell who led them to the championship game in 2020. The Cyclones have scored 32.5 Points-Per-Game in their last three games. They rank ninth in the nation by going three-and-out on offense in only 18.9% of their possessions. Their defense ranks 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to 19.6 PPG. They rank second in the country by limiting opposing passers to completing just 52.0% of their passes. They also rank 22nd in the FBS by giving up only 5.2 Yards-Per-Dropback. The Iowa State defense gets two key contributors back for this contest as well. Safety Malik Verdon returns to action after missing last week’s game due to an injury. Middle linebacker Caleb Bacon also is healthy again after being out since Week One. The Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 12 games on the road against Big 12 rivals. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games away from home as an underdog. Arizona State overachieved preseason and point-spread expectations most of the season with their 10-2 ATS mark. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham did a masterful job improving the talent level of the roster in the transfer portal from last year’s 3-9 team. But there are plenty of red flags that their bubble is about to burst. The Sun Devils won six of their seven games decided by one scoring possession. They benefited from a +11 net turnover margin. They have covered the point spread in five straight games. They overachieved Bill Connelly’s SP+ scoring projections by +17.9 PPG in those five games. But now their top wide receiver, Jordyn Tyson, is out the season with an injury. Quarterback Sam Leavitt will miss his 75 catches, 1101 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. No other wide receiver has caught more than 17 passes this season — and Tyson is the only wideout with at least ten targets on third down. The Arizona State passing attack can already be a bit limited since 31% of their pass attempts are at or behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to the national average of 21%. The Sun Devils defense ranks just 86th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Their defense also ranks 117th in Opponent Red Zone Touchdown Rate Allowed. The Arizona State special teams unit ranks 131st in the nation according to Connelly’s SP+ rankings. And, finally, this is far from an ideal start time for the Sun Devils since their body clock will think it is 10 AM.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones thrive in the role of the underdog under Campbell as they are 36-23-3 ATS in their 62 games when getting the points in his tenure — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games as an underdog. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (109) plus (or minus) the points versus the Arizona State Sun Devils (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Tulane (9-3) saw their eight-game winning streak snapped in a 34-24 upset loss at home against Memphis as a 12.5-point favorite last Thursday. Army (10-1) rebounded from their loss against Notre Dame two weeks ago with a 29-24 win against UTSA as a 6-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Green Wave head coach Jon Sumrall knows how to prepare his teams to defend against the triple option offense. In his three games against service academy teams going back to his previous tenure as the head coach at Troy, his teams have given up only nine combined points with two shutout wins on the road. That mark includes a 35-0 victory at Navy three weeks ago in a game where they held the Midshipmen to only 100 rushing yards from 35 carries. Not only has his defense prepared for the triple option recently, but the coaching staff can use that experience to adjust for this contest. Army generates 312.8 rushing Yards-Per-Game — but Sumrall’s teams have played all 6 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. Sumrall’s teams have also played 10 of their 13 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 4 of their 5 games on the road Under the Total when laying up to seven points. The Green Wave holds their opponents to 3.72 Yards-Per-Carry. They rank seventh in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 29th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They rank in the top 15 in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed — and they lead in the nation in Opponent Fourth Down Conversion Rate Allowed after thwarting 16 of the 23 fourth down attempts by their opponents this season. Tulane is holding their opponents to just 304.7 total YPG which has resulted in just 18.4 Points-Per-Game. The Green Wave run the ball on offense as they have the 10th lowest pass rate in the FBS. Tulane has played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total when favored — and they have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in the second half of the season. Army ranks eighth in the nation by allowing only 15.1 PPG — and they are limiting their opponents to 295.5 YPG. The Black Knights have played 5 of their last 8 home games Under the Total after a win against a conference rival. And while the Green Wave averages 214.3 rushing YPG, Army has played 22 of their last 32 games Under the Total against teams who average 200 or more rushing YPG. They have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams who do not allow more than 310 YPG. Furthermore, the Black Knights have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 12 of their 18 games under head coach Jeff Monken against teams winning 75% or more of their games. And in their last 15 games in December, Army has played 10 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The weather will not be conducive to passing the football with the temperatures dropping into the 20s and winds at 9 miles per hour. As it is, Army scores 32.7 PPG — and Tulane has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who score 31 or more PPG. The Green Wave averages 6.7 Yards-Per-Attempt and 430.7 YPG —  and the Black Knights have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams who average 425 or more YPG and 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams who average 5.9 or more YPP. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Jacksonville State (8-4) had won eight games in a row after their 19-17 loss on the road against the Hilltoppers as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Western Kentucky (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with that victory.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GAMECOCKS MINUS THE POINTS: Jacksonville State had already clinched the right to host the Conference USA Championship Game before last week’s game so they had nothing at stake. They got to run the base offense and keep things vanilla while saving all their tricks for this rematch. Head coach Rich Rodriguez certainly picked up a few things about the Hilltoppers defense that he could exploit — and rather than take advantage of that knowledge last week in key situations, all those plays remain uncorked for tonight’s game. Even given that, the Gamecocks generated 5.5 Yards-Per-Play which was more than Western Kentucky’s 5.1 YPP mark. Jacksonville State’s offense was only on the field for 23:23 minutes of that game which explains why they got outgained in raw yardage. The Gamecocks only converted 2 of their 13 third down attempts — and they failed to convert on five of their six attempts on third down with six yards or less to go. Look for Jacksonville State to be better on third down tonight — especially against this Hilltoppers defense that ranks 111th in Opponent Third Down Conversion Rate Allowed. The Gamecocks are a run-first offense that runs the ball on 66% of their snaps while playing at the seventh-fastest pace in the nation to wear down opposing defenses. This approach was effective last week as they generated 5.3 Yards-Per-Carry for 229 rushing yards. Western Kentucky allows 208.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game from 4.8 YPC — and they rank 115th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. Jacksonville State has covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home against teams who allow 200 or more rushing YPG. Gamecocks’ quarterback Tyler Huff is questionable tonight after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury. I don’t know if Rodriguez was just cautious with him or if he really may not play tonight — he is a game-time decision. We have to assume he does not play (or his mobility is not 100%) and be pleasantly surprised if he can go and be effective. His backup is Logan Smothers who is a former blue-chip recruit who transferred in from Nebraska. He is in the second-year in this program and split time as the starting quarterback despite battling injuries and Rodriguez playing the hot hand. Smothers is not as dynamic a runner as Huff although he did rush for 32 yards with a touchdown on five carries last week — but he may offer more in the passing game. Rodriguez has plenty of running backs in his zone-read spread offensive attack. Jacksonville State generates 461.0 YPG when playing at home which is resulting in 37.0 Points-Per-Game. They are outscoring their guests by +14.2 PPG and outgaining them by +99.3 net YPG. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home when favored. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Western Kentucky had to win last week to get this opportunity to win the conference championship — so they had to deploy their best offensive and defensive looks. Running back Elijah Young ran the ball 19 times which was the third-highest mark for him all season and just the fifth time all year he ran the ball at least 15 times. Despite having their offense on the field for over 36 minutes, they still needed a 21-yard field goal to win the game with three seconds left. Quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw the ball 47 times for 301 yards but only averaged 6.4 Yards-Per-Completion. Now with a week to study that game tape along with the weather dropping into the 20s tonight in Jacksonville, Alabama, it will be more difficult for the Hilltoppers to move the ball in the air. As it is, Western Kentucky has struggled on offense lately as they have only generated 336.3 total YPG in their last three games for 15.7 PPG which is more than 50 YPG and 11.0 PPG below their season averages. On the road, the Hilltoppers are getting outscored by -3.8 PPG and getting outgained by -81.0 PPG. Their defense on the road is the problem as they are allowing their home hosts to gain 468.2 YPG which is resulting in 30.8 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Revenge is not a huge factor in these Conference Championship Games as teams looking to avenge a same-season loss are a flat 27-27 ATS since 2005 in those situations. But, it is telling that 36 of those 54 teams motivated by revenge improved their game score by +7.7 PPG in those contests. The Gamecocks have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after the first month of the season while the Hilltoppers have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games in the second half of the season — and those trends suggests that Rodriguez and his staff do a better job with adjustments than Western Kentucky’s Tyson Helton and his staff. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the Jacksonville State Gamecocks (106) minus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (105). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). THE SITUATION: LSU (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak with their 24-17 win against Vanderbilt as a 9.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oklahoma (6-5) has won two of their last three games after their 24-3 upset win at home against Alabama as a 14-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: LSU dominated the Commodores in yardage last week by generating 471 yards of offense and outgaining them by +163 net yards. Now with head coach Brian Kelly facing heavy scrutiny from the fan base from an underwhelming season, expect a big effort from his players on Senior Day. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games at home after a straight-up win in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after winning at home in their last game. Additionally, LSU has covered the point spread in 13 of their last games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games after the first month of the season. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games at home when favored. Playing in the Death Valley is always tough — especially in night games. The Tigers are 5-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +8.8 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +103.2 net Yards-Per-Game. LSU generates 455.7 total YPG at home which results in 31.0 PPG. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is poised for a big game after completing 28 of 37 passes for 332 yards last week against Vanderbilt. He is averaging over 300 passing YPG with 23 touchdown passes. He faces a Sooners defense that ranks just 53rd in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Oklahoma ranks fourth in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — but that probably might just encourage the Tigers to not rely on their ground game that ranks last in the SEC by averaging only 117.6 rushing YPG. The Sooners only gained 325 yards last week against the Crimson Tide — but they dominated the time of possession by running the ball for 257 yards. Quarterback Jackson Arnold ran the ball 25 times himself for 131 yards — but he may now be fatigued this week after that effort. That game was the first time all season where he averaged more than 3.6 Yards-Per-Carry. Arnold only passed 11 times in that game for 68 passing yards. The Oklahoma offense is too one-dimensional with poor pass protection and injuries at the wide receiver position. The Sooners looked primed for an emotional letdown tonight — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a win against a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road after a win against a conference opponent. They go back on the road where they are just 1-4 this season with an average losing margin of -11.0 PPG. They are only generating 278.5 total YPG away from home which is resulting in a mere 16.8 PPG. Oklahoma has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road after the first month of the season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on the road in November. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kelly’s teams throughout his coaching tenure are 28-11-3 ATS in 42 games played at home as an underdog or favorite of less than a touchdown. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the LSU Tigers (406) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (405). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (6-5) has lost two games in a row and three of their last four contests after their 27-16 loss to UNLV as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. Stanford (3-8) has lost seven of their last eight games after their 24-21 loss at California as a 14.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS MINUS THE POINTS: San Jose State has played the top two teams in the Mountain West Conference the last two weeks — and they held leads late in the third quarter before fading late against superior rosters. Against a Boise State team currently ranked fourth in the College Football Playoff, they held a 21-14 lead midway through the third quarter before giving up the final four touchdowns in that game. Last week, the Spartans rebounded to take a 16-13 lead late in the third quarter before the Rebels scored the final two touchdowns in that contest. Quarterback Walker Egget had an ugly boxscore with just four completions in 22 pass attempts for San Jose State — but the wet and sloppy conditions should get much of the blame for those rough numbers. Eggett has one of the best weapons in the nation with wide receiver Nick Nash. It has been a successful first season under former Navy head coach Ken Niumatalolo despite a challenging conference schedule. They are outscoring their opponents by +0.9 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +14.5 net Yards-Per-Game. At home, they are outscoring their opponents by +3.5 PPG and outgaining them by +35.7 net YPG. San Jose State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games when favored by up to seven points — and Niumatalolo’s teams have covered the point spread in 15 of their 23 home games in his career when favored by up to seven points. The Spartans have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference. Stanford blew a 21-7 lead in the third quarter last week and lost the game after the Golden Bears executed a 98-yard touchdown drive in the final two minutes. They got outgained by -112 net yards in that contest. Last year was destined to be a trying season for first-year head coach Troy Taylor taking over a decimated Cardinal program whose high academic standards made things very difficult in the new world of college football with the NIL and the transfer portal. Taylor inherited the fewest returning production of all Power Five programs. But the strides made this season have been disappointing. They only have two wins against FBS teams with their third victory being against Cal Poly Slo. They are getting outscored by -12.5 PPG and outgained by -93.1 net YPG. Returning starting quarterback Ashton Daniels is completing only 62% of his passes with only nine touchdown passes and nine interceptions. Last year’s defense suffered by ranking 129th in the nation by allowing 37.2 Points-Per-Game and 461.7 YPG — and despite 15 of the 20 players who logged in at least 200 snaps back for the second year under defensive coordinator Bobby April, they are still surrendering 412.3 total YPG which has resulted in 39.3 PPG. The Cardinal has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a loss to a conference opponent. On the road, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Stanford only scores 19.2 PPG on the road — and their home hosts are generation 429.0 total YPG against them resulting in 39.2 PPG. The 412.3 passing YPG they are giving up is the eighth most in the FBS. They rank 110th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed with opposing quarterbacks completing 66% of their passes against them with 27 touchdown passes. The Cardinal offense has not rushed for at least 120 yards in seven of their games — and they have failed to pass for at least 200 yards in eight of their games. They convert on just 34% of their third downs. They rank 116th in Havoc Rate Allowed with their offensive line giving up 38 sacks and 95 tackles for loss. The Spartans rank 30th in Havoc Rate with 22 sacks and 77 tackles for loss. San Jose State ranks eighth in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 15th in Opposing Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Stanford has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Motivation may be an issue for the Cardinal on the road against a Group of Five opponent in this lost season. The Spartans would love to knock off their FBS geographical rival — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Blowout Game of the Month with the San Jose State Spartans (332) minus the points versus the Stanford Cardinal (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). THE SITUATION: Army (9-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 14-3 victory at North Texas as a 6.5-point favorite two weeks ago on November 9th. Notre Dame (9-1) has won eight straight games after their 35-14 win against Virginia as a 21-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLACK KNIGHTS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a very dangerous game for the Fighting Irish. With an upset loss already on their resume against Northern Illinois, a second upset loss tonight could very well ruin their playoff aspirations. They are currently ranked eighth in the playoff rankings — but they do not have a victory against a team in the 12-team field. Their most impressive victory was their opening game win at Texas A&M. Their next best wins were against who, Georgia Tech? Louisville? They did crush Navy a month ago — but they also benefited from six takeaways that completely took the Midshipmen out of their preferred game script. Notre Dame enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week in their win against the Cavaliers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Irish have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games away from home in November. I don’t love it when teams play a service academy team without the benefit of an extra bye week to prepare for their unique spread option attacks. Certainly, it helps that they already prepared for and then played Navy — but Army head coach Jeff Monken will study that game tape to tweak and adjust his offensive schemes with his specific flexbone attack for this game. The Black Knights run five core plays — zone dive, follow, midline triple option, rocket and kick — and while opponents know what is coming, Monken is able to use misdirection and varying blocking concepts to throw these opposing defenses off. There is a reason that Army has covered the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. The Black Knights lead the nation in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards — so their prowess with their ground game is not simply that they run the ball a majority of the time to rack up big yardage numbers. Running back Kanye Udoh generates +3.4 yards after the first contact this season. Quarterback Bryson Daily missed the Air Force game to an undisclosed injury — but he is back and should be back to full strength coming off the bye week. He is effective with play-action passes. While Army is unbeaten, I think all the pressure is on the Fighting Irish. The Black Knights are not in the current playoff bracket given their underwhelming strength of schedule — but pulling off the upset tonight may be exactly what they need to elevate into the top-12. Army has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning three or more games in a row. They have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. They rank 25th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Irish are just 91st in Pass Success Rate on Passing Downs. And while Notre Dame leads the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed, that elite skillset is neutralized by a run-heavy team like the Black Knights. The Fighting Irish are giving up only 11.4 Points-Per-Game — but Army has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams not allowing more than 17 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games away from home after the first month of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games away from home as an underdog. They have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games played on a neutral field. The Black Knights slow the game down by averaging more than 33 seconds per play which limits their opponent’s possessions — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field with the Total set from 42.5-49.

FINAL TAKE: Notre Dame does not play at a fast pace either — and that makes all these points with the underdog even more valuable. Service Academies are 44-26-2 ATS in their last 72 games as an underdog of +14.5 or more points. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Army West Point Black Knights (221) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (222). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). THE SITUATION: Old Dominion (4-5) had won three games in a row before a 28-20 upset loss at Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog two weeks ago on November 2nd. James Madison (7-2) has won two games in a row with their 38-7 win against Georgia State as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MONARCHS PLUS THE POINTS: Old Dominion outgained the Mountaineers two weeks ago by +102 net yards after generating 498 yards against them. A -3 net turnover margin was too much to overcome. The result was the Monarchs’ fourth loss by one scoring possession this season including an impressive four-point loss at South Carolina in August to open their season. With an extra week to prepare, they should be ready to pull the upset this afternoon. Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after enduring a net turnover margin of -2 or worse in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games coming off their bye week. The Monarchs have been much more explosive on offense since dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph took over under center in October. He completed 27 of 38 passes for 332 yards with two touchdown passes (and an interception) against Appalachian State — and he added an additional 42 rushing yards. Old Dominion is generating 378.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 25.4. Points-Per-Game this season — but in their last five games since Joseph took over as the starter, they are averaging 437.0 total YPG which is producing 29.8 PPG. The Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as an underdog getting up to seven points. James Madison has registered two straight wins against two bad teams in Southern Mississippi and Georgia State in their last two games. They caught the Panthers last week at the tail end of a rare four-game road swing which was pretty fortunate. This team has been catching breaks all season as they lead the nation with a +18 net turnover margin. Averaging a +2 net turnover margin per game is simply not sustainable — so I am expecting the Regression Gods to make their presence known sooner rather than later. As it is, the Dukes have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win at home by 28 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. Quarterback Alonza Barrett has 21 touchdown passes and only three interceptions this season — but most of that production came earlier in the season when he registered 11 Big-Time throws and only three turnover-worthy plays in his first four games. In his last five games against Sun Belt opponents, Barrett has only six Big-Time throws with six turnover-worthy plays. The Dukes rank just 91st in Pass Success Rate so they may hope to get most of their yards on the ground — but Old Dominion ranks 23rd in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. James Madison has only scored 33 combined points in their two conference games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Dukes are outscoring their opponents by +18.9 PPG — but the Monarchs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. Under head coach Ricky Rahne, the Old Dominion has covered the point spread in 22 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their 21 games as an underdog in Sun Belt Conference play with ten outright upset victories. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Underdog of the Year with the Old Dominion Monarchs (332) plus the points versus the James Madison Dukes (331). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-4) has lost four games in a row after their 17-14 upset loss at Houston as a 4.5-point favorite back two weeks ago on October 26th. BYU (8-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 37-24 upset win at Central Florida as a 3-point underdog on October 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES PLUS THE POINTS: After winning their first four games this season, injuries have played a role in them losing four games in a row — but their last three losses to Arizona State, TCU, and then the Cougars were all by one scoring possession. The Utes did outgain Houston by +17 net yards by holding them to just 289 yards of offense. Utah still has an outstanding defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes are holding their opponents to 303.5 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 16.5 Points-Per-Game. They rank seventh in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 11th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Additionally, they rank sixth in Finishing Drives Allowed — and they rank second in 3rd Down Defense. The problem has been the offense with quarterback Cam Rising once again out of the season with injuries. Offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig stepped down a few weeks ago — so interim offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has used the extra week to adjust the offense to the skillsets of either Isaac Wilson or freshman Brandon Rose. In Whittingham, I trust, to right the ship this week. Utah has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games after a loss by six points or less. They have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 37 games with an extra week to prepare under Whittingham. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games in November. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home in expected lower-scoring games with the Total set in the 35.5-42 point range. BYU has been fortunate to not lose a game this season. They beat Oklahoma State on a last-second game-winning touchdown against an injury-riddled Cowboys. Their victory against Kansas State was fluky as they scored 38 points from non-offensive touchdowns that helped them overcome only gaining 241 yards in that game. They have won all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and they have benefited from a +7 net turnover margin. They have also converted on 15 of their 18 fourth down attempts. These are all areas where the Regression Gods eventually appear to even things out — and it could get ugly for the Cougars when it happens. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff has 18 touchdown passes — but he has not registered a “Big Time Throw” all season and has seven turnover-worthy plays. The Cougars have an excellent pass defense that ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — but that is not the strength of this Utes team. Utah wants to run the football — and BYU ranks just 84th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 87th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. The Cougars hold their opponents to just 5.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game — but the Utes have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games against teams who are not allowing more than 5.75 YPA. BYU has failed to cover the point spread 5 of their last 7 games against teams not allowing more than 17.0 PPG — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams not giving up more than 310 YPG. The Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Whittingham will have his team ready to play in the Holy War with the motivation to ruin BYU’s perfect season. Utah has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 43 games as an underdog getting four or more points under Whittingham. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Utah Utes (146) plus the points versus the BYU Cougars (145). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (3-4) has lost two games in a row after their 48-20 upset loss at Florida as a 2.5-point road favorite last Saturday. Auburn (2-5) has lost four games in a row after their 21-17 loss at Missouri as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS MINUS THE POINT(S): Kentucky got upset at home to what looks like a pretty good Vanderbilt team two weeks ago — and they laid an egg last week by getting upset for the second straight week at Florida against the Gators. Look for head coach Mark Stoops to right the ship tonight. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after getting upset in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after getting upset by an SEC rival in the Stoops era. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games at home after getting beat in their last contest. Kentucky has been inconsistent with bad losses like last week — but remember that this group has also upset Ole Miss this season and lost by only one point at home to Georgia. Their defense is the best unit on the field in this one — they are holding their opponents to just 283.6 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in 19.3 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats return home where they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 home games when favored by up to seven points. They are outscoring their opponents by +6.6 PPG when playing at home — and they are outgaining their guests by +87.6 net YPG. Kentucky is very tough to move the ball on when they are playing at home — they are limiting their visitors to just 231.2 total YPG resulting in 14.0 PPG. This is a good matchup for the Wildcats. Led by running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye, they rank 13th in Rushing Success Rate. Quarterback Brock Vandergriff has been inconsistent — but he has been effective in play-action with the Wildcats ranking 21st in the nation in Pass Explosiveness. The Tigers rank 44th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have allowed 130 or more rushing yards in four of their last five games. Auburn is a mess after losing for their fourth game in a row. Their victory against New Mexico last month represents their only win against a team from the FBS. Second-year head coach Hugh Freeze is at risk of getting fired — he replaced a head coach who was let go in his second season. The vibes aren’t good. The Tigers blew a 17-6 lead entering the fourth quarter to Missouri — and they also blew a 21-10 fourth quarter lead against Oklahoma. These problems speak to a lack of team confidence and chemistry with the players making too many mistakes down the stretch. Quarterback Payton Thorne has thrown six interceptions. Auburn wants to run the ball behind running ball Jarquez Hunter -- but he will face one of the best defensive fronts in the FBS tonight. Kentucky ranks 17th in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They also rank 16th in Havoc Rate — and that spells trouble for the mistake-ridden Tigers team that ranks 103rd in Havoc Rate Allowed. To compound matters, Auburn is playing their third straight game away from home.

FINAL TAKE: This is simply a bad matchup for the Tigers who struggle against stout defenses that thrive in stopping the run. The Wildcats are giving up only 105.7 rushing YPG. Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams not giving up more than 120 rushing yards per game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents like this. Lastly, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games against teams who do not give up more than 310 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against opponents like this. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Kentucky Wildcats (148) minus the point(s) versus the Auburn Tigers (147). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). THE SITUATION: UTEP (1-6) snapped their six-game losing streak to start the season with a 30-21 upset victory as a 7-point underdog last Wednesday. Louisiana Tech (2-4) has lost four of their last five games after a 33-30 loss in overtime at New Mexico State last Tuesday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent going into their bye week at the end of last month. Third-year head coach Sonny Cumbie took advantage of that reset by benching junior Jack Turner and turning to redshirt freshman Evan Bullock at quarterback. Louisiana Tech responded by scoring 48 points in a 27-point victory at home against Middle Tennessee. Their 30 points were not enough to stave off the upset loss to the Aggies last week — but the Bulldogs have played 4 straight Overs after an upset loss in their last game. They return home where they have played 9 of their last 13 home games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total after the first month of the season. Additionally, Louisiana Tech has played 7 of their last 8 games in October Over the Total — and they have played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total against Conference USA rivals. Furthermore, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. On paper, the Bulldogs are playing much better defense than they did last season. They have held four of their six opponents to 23 or fewer points — and they rank 19th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. But they have benefited from an easy strength of schedule so far with four of their opponents ranked 117th or worse in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rating system. UTEP generated 372 yards and 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last week in their nine-point upset win against the Golden Panthers. The Miners go back on the road where they have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after the first month of the season — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total against teams with a losing record. They have also played 4 of their last 5 road games Over the Total as an underdog of up to seven points — and they have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total as an underdog in the 3.5-10 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Louisiana Tech is generating 254.5 passing Yards-Per-Game this season — and UTEP has played 5 straight road games Over the Total against teams who average 250 or more passing YPG. The Miners are giving up 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry — and the Bulldogs have played 4 straight home games Over the Total against teams who generate 4.75 or more YPC. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the UTEP Miners (103) and the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (3-3) had their two-game winning streak snapped last Saturday in a 28-16 loss at home to Iowa State as a 3-point underdog. Kansas State (5-1) has won two games in a row after their 31-28 victory at Colorado as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia’s three losses are all against ranked teams — Penn State, Pittsburgh, and the Cyclones last week — who all remained undefeated so far this season. They are outscoring their opponents by +4.2 Points-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their opponents by +50.7 net Yards-Per-Game given a powerful offense that generates 428.5 YPG. The Mountaineers have a Thunder and Lightning backfield of Jahiem White and C.J. Donaldson, Jr. along with dual-threat quarterback Garrett Greene who rushed for 87 yards on ten carries last week against Iowa State. They rank 24th in the nation in Rush Success Rate. West Virginia should play well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a straight-up loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after losing to a Big 12 rival in their last game. They stay at home where they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Kansas State won a thriller on the road against the Buffaloes last week — but they have failed to cover the point spreads in 6 straight games on the road after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games after a win against a Big 12 opponent. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games. Quarterback Avery Johnson can be inconsistent — especially on the road. In their 38-9 loss at BYU, Johnson threw two interceptions and only averaged 4.6 Yards-Per-Attempt. The Wildcats are also vulnerable with their pass defense as they rank 104th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed while giving up 8.3 Yards-Per-Attempt.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State has their in-state rivalry game against Kansas on deck next week — so they may be looking ahead. As it is, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games when favored. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Month is with the West Virginia Mountaineers (358) plus the points versus the Kansas State Wildcats (357). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 11:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (4-1) has won three games in a row after their 44-41 victory against Cincinnati as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Arizona (3-1) comes off a 23-10 upset victory at Utah as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It is easy to see why many bettors expect this game to be a shootout — but the deeper analytics suggest these respective offenses are not quite as explosive as some of their final scores indicate. The Red Raiders may be scoring 41.6 Points-Per-Game — but they rank just 42nd in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 63rd in Passing Success Rate. In their only game away from home this season, they scored just 16 points at Washington State. One of their touchdowns last week against the Bearcats came from a 51-yard interception return. Texas Tech has played 7 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games on the road Under the Total after scoring 37 or more points in their last contest. Furthermore, they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing 37 or more points in their last game. They play their second game on the road where they have played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total. They have also played 5 of their last 6 road games Under the Total when getting 3.5 to 10 points as an underdog. Arizona only gained 358 yards last week in their victory against the Utes. They have scored no more than 23 points in three of their four contests this season. They rank 102nd in Rush Success Rate and 91st in Pass Success Rate. The Wildcats are settling for too many field goal attempts as they rank 91st in the FBS in Finishing Drives. But their defense has been solid as they are holding their opponents to just 22.5 PPG. Arizona has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total after a straight-up win on the road. They have played 4 straight home games Under the Total after an upset win against a conference rival. Additionally, they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats are playing their first season under new head coach Brent Brennan who took over for Jedd Fisch who left to take the Washington job. Brennan’s teams going back to his previous tenure at San Jose State have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total in expected higher-scoring games with the Total set in the 63.5-70 point range — and his teams have played 5 straight Unders when playing at home with the Total set in that 63.5-70 point range. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Tech Red Raiders (365) and the Arizona Wildcats (366). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). THE SITUATION: Baylor (2-2) has lost two of their last three games after their 38-31 loss at Colorado in overtime as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. BYU (4-0) remained unbeaten after their 38-9 upset win at home against Kansas State as a 7.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS: BYU has been fortunate to remain unscathed this season — but this is the spot where they should be exposed by an angry Baylor team. BYU opened their season with an easy one against Southern Illinois from the FCS. They then played on the road against an SMU team that is already on their second quarterback and who were the beneficiaries of five TCU giveaways in their upset victory against them before disposing of one of the biggest disappointments of the season so far in a Wyoming team struggling to move on in the post-Craig Bohl era. And then last week, the Cougars survived getting outgained by a 367 to 241 margin in yardage to stun the Wildcats. Some fluky plays changed the tenor of that game. Trailing by a 6-3 score, BYU scooped up a Kansas State fumble to score a 30-yard defensive touchdown with 1:08 left in the half. They immediately were then given a short field by the Wildcats and scored another touchdown with 0:29 left to take a 17-6 lead. They then scored on a 90-yard punt return for a touchdown early in the third quarter to take control of the game with a 24-6 lead. If that was not enough, the Cougars were gifted another 50 yards on eight Kansas State penalties. I am not letting a deceiving final score last week sway me from my preseason thoughts on this team. After playing only five Power-Five conference opponents in 2022, I was concerned about how the Cougars would handle their move to the Big 12 with ten Power-Five opponents on their schedule going into last season. BYU started fast with a 5-2 record — but their three upset victories against Arkansas, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech were in games where they got outgained in yardage. The Regression Gods made their presence felt in the second half of the season with the Cougars surrendering 38 Points-Per-Game in their final five games — all losses — to finish the season with a 5-7 record. This team ran out of steam lacking the depth of their conference rivals. They were outgained by -141 Yards-Per-Game against Big 12 opponents. BYU ranked 118th in the FBS by generating only 309.8 YPG — and they ranked 106th by giving up 417.7 YPG. Head coach Kalani Sitake returns 14 starters in his ninth year with the program. There are reasons for optimism with 13 of the players on defense who logged in at least 100 snaps including seven who were freshman or sophomore last year. But line play is the final step that this program needs to improve to become more competitive against the (now) Power Four programs. Their offensive line was a weak link last season prompting Sitake to hire T.J. Woods from Georgia Southern to coach that unit. Junior college transfers join two returning starters on the defensive line — but they only have one player per 300 pounds in that group. The Cougars ranked 109th by allowing 177.7 rushing YPG — and their 11 sacks were the fewest in the country. BYU should be better this season — but the gap was very wide between them and the best teams in the Big 12. Now they play their second traditional Power Five/Four program in the Bears who will challenge them on both lines of scrimmage. As it is, the Cougars have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win at home. And while they enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after posting a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road when playing during those weeks. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Junior quarterback Jake Retzlaff has thrown nine touchdown passes with only three interceptions — but those numbers look much better than his only five “big time” throws and six turnover-worthy plays. Now he faces his toughest defense this season with this Baylor team that is holding their opponents to just 283.5 total Yards-Per-Game and 16.8 Points-Per-Game. This Bears defense has significantly improved with head coach Dave Aranda taking over the play-calling duties. They rank 11th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Baylor was a prime candidate to rebound from their 3-9 campaign last season with 19 returning starters from that very young team. They lost a heartbreaker last week on the road against the Buffaloes after they missed a late game-sealing field goal which created the opportunity for quarterback Shadeur Sanders to complete a 43-yard Hail Mary pass to force overtime on the final play in regulation. A botched fumble on the one-yard line in overtime led to them losing the game. If there was a silver lining, it was the play of junior quarterback Sawyer Robertson who completed 11 of 21 passes for 148 yards and two touchdowns while adding another touchdown and 82 yards on the ground. The former Mississippi State transfer is a better fit to execute the quick passing game Baylor wants to deploy than previous starter Dequan Finn who may lack the requisite passing skills after transferring from Toledo. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 straight home games after a straight-up loss on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 37 or more points. And in their last 16 games at home as the favorite, they have covered the point spread in 10 of those contests.

FINAL TAKE: Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games against teams winning 75% or more of their games. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Month with the Baylor Bears (172) minus the points versus the BYU Cougars (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) has won their opening three games of the season after their 20-12 upset victory at Florida State as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. Navy (2-0) returns to the field after beating Temple by a 38-11 score two weeks ago as an 11.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MIDSHIPMEN PLUS THE POINTS: The Tigers dominated time of possession last week while enjoying a +2 net turnover margin in pulling off the signature victory against the Seminoles. Florida State is reeling amidst a start to the season that has exposed the inattention to recruiting under head coach Mike Norvell. In hindsight, the talent level in Tallahassee is not nearly the same as it was last season after losing ten players in the NFL including six in the first three rounds. The Seminoles have become overly dependent on the transfer portal which is a high-risk, high-reward proposition. Norvell seems to have missed at quarterback after bringing in former Clemson and then Oregon State’s D.J. Uigalelei. The Tigers come off their best season under head coach Ryan Silverfield in his four seasons with the program after a 10-3 campaign that culminated with a 36-26 victory against Iowa State at home in the Liberty Bowl. With 17 starters back led by four-year starting quarterback Seth Henigan, Memphis was already a trendy pick to represent the Group of Five programs in the expanded College Football Playoffs — and now those playoff expectations fall firmly on their shoulders. Notre Dame felt similar pressure after their beating Texas A&M in their opening game — and they got upset the next week despite being nearly a four-touchdown favorite. The Tigers are just one of eight FBS programs that have been bowl-eligible for at least ten straight seasons. But while the offense was prolific with Henigan under center — ranking 14th in the nation generating 458.5 total Yards-Per-Game, the defense allowed too many big plays en route to surrendering 423.2 YPG, ranking 111th in the nation. A new NIL deal with FedEx helped Henigan become very aggressive in the transfer portal. He brought in 29 players featuring 11 who were previous starters at FBS programs along with another five from the junior college ranks. Nine transfers add depth to the offense headlined by senior running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina. Silverfield added another 20 transfers to help improve the defense while promoting linebackers coach Jordan Hawkins to defensive coordinator to address the woes on that side of the ball. But with all these new additions to what had been a stable program, there is the question regarding the chemistry between the old guard and new players with everyone dealing with higher expectations. Despite going 6-2 in conference play last year, the Tigers got outscored by American Athletic Conference opponents by -6.0 YPG. I have worried about the underlying culture of this program under Silverfield in the past. They began last season having lost eight of their last ten games decided by one-scoring possession before winning four of their six games decided by a touchdown or less last year. Perhaps, as the analytics community preaches, the Regression Gods were simply due to even out that record in games decided by one scoring possession. On the other hand, if losing close games under Silverfield in the past had anything to do with underlying positive culture and cohesion issues, then the influx of all these new players and the expectations surrounding it could become a volatile mix that has not even played in an American Athletic Conference Championship Game in the Silverfield era. This is a very challenging spot for the Tigers staying on the road for a second week on the road against a team running a gimmicky new offense. It is highly doubtful that Silverfield and his coaching staff had anything other than Florida State on their minds last week. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after playing a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on field turf. So far, so good for Navy after following up their victory against Bucknell with a dominant victory against the Owls in conference play. The Midshipmen have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after winning at home. Navy has also covered the point spread in 4 straight games at home after a win by 17 or more points. The Midshipmen have been one of the hardest-hit programs given events outside of their control the last few seasons. Spring practices are crucial to the service academies since talent development is vital to replace what are typically starting lineups that feature seniors. Conducting zero practices in the spring of 2020 because of COVID coming off an 11-2 campaign set this program back. Even during their 2020 fall season, they experienced a 28-day midseason hiatus because of the ongoing pandemic that fall which completely disrupted their progress. The new era of the transfer portal or even the waived season of eligibility in 2020 are two areas that service academy programs can not utilize given the military service obligations. And then the NCAA’s cut block rule change two years ago took away one of the secret advantages for this program which was their spread triple option attack. First-year head coach Brian Newberry hired former Kennesaw State offensive coordinator Grant Chestnut to modernize the offense with more passing and they ditched the triple option. However, the experiment failed as Navy only generated 300.3 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in just 17.7 Points-Per-Game, ranking 123rd and 122nd in the FBS. Newberry did not retain Chestnut and replaced him with Mercer head coach Drew Cronic who led the Tigers to the FCS playoffs last season. Cronic’s specialty is a hybrid wing-T formation that emphasizes misdirections from the run or pass — the plan in Annapolis is to return to the triple-option but with spread principles. With an extra week to prepare for this game, expect many new schemes, formations, and plays from Cronic in what is this team’s biggest game of the season so far this year. Seven starters return on both sides of the ball with the defense also seeing six reserves on defense who got plenty of action in the two-deep last year. The Midshipmen’s defense remained the strength of the team last season by ranking 44th in the nation by allowing just 353.7 total YPG. There is stability on that side of the ball after Newberry had been the defensive coordinator for four seasons before taking over as head coach. Navy has had four straight losing seasons — and that 2019 season with 11 wins is their only winning season in the last six seasons. But their five victories last year were the most they have had since that 2019 campaign — so Newberry may have this program moving in the right direction again. Often the Midshipmen go only as far as their quarterback — and they may have found a good one in junior Blake Horvath who only played in one game last year before suffering a season-ending injury. Horvath took control of the starting job in the spring and held off sophomore Braxton Woodson in the fall. He ran for 112 yards with three touchdowns last week on 15 carries. But the exciting dynamic for this program is his passing threat as he completed 5 of 9 passes for 112 yards with a touchdown pass as well. Against Bucknell in their opening game, Horvath completed 7 of 12 passes for 168 yards with another two touchdown passes.

FINAL TAKE: Navy has lost five straight games to the Tigers — so snapping that losing streak would go a long way to re-establish this program. But they will come into this game with confidence after only losing 28-24 at Memphis as an 11.5-point underdog last September 14th. The Midshipmen were able to run the ball for 299 yards on 50 carries for a 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry average in that game. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 meetings against the Tigers. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Navy Midshipmen (398) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). THE SITUATION: Mississippi State (1-1) looks to bounce back from their 30-23 loss at Arizona State as a 6.5-point underdog last Saturday. Toledo (2-0) has won their first two games of the season after their 38-23 win against UMass as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a get-right game for Mississippi State under rookie head coach Jeff Lebby. The former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma and Ole Miss mentioned in his press conference after last week’s game that he is focusing on getting off to a better start by his team this week. The Bulldogs went into halftime trailing by a 27-3 score before they made it a game in the second half by outscoring the Sun Devils on the road by a 16-3 score. They nearly overcame a devastating fumble on their one-yard line that Arizona State scooped up to score a defensive touchdown. Senior transfer quarterback from Baylor Blake Shapen played well in a hostile environment by completing 18 of 28 passes for 268 passing yards while throwing two touchdown passes without an interception. Mississippi State returns home to Davis Wade Stadium where they crushed Eastern Kentucky two weeks ago by a 56-7 score. The Bulldogs have covered the points spread in 7 of their last 10 home games when favored — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games with the Total set in the 56.5-63 range. Toledo was fortunate to get past the Minutemen after they outgained by -126 net yards. The Rockets only gained 258 yards of offense and lost the first down battle by a 12 to 23 margin. They only produced a 26% Success Rate on their offensive plays. They benefitted from a 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown that immediately restored their seven-point lead in the second quarter. And the final score was deceptive since UMass failed at an onside kick after scoring a late touchdown with less than three minutes to go which gave Toledo a short field from which they scored a final touchdown to ice the game. Quarterback Tucker Gleason completed only 8 of 23 passes for 175 yards — he has completed less than 50% of his passes in over 200 career passes. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games on the road after a victory. They have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win on their home field. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after scoring 37 or more points. Now after playing Duquesne and then the Minutemen at home, they go on the road for a big step up in competition against a Power Four program. Toledo has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games as an underdog under head coach Jason Candle. This is a rebuilding year for Candle with just eight starters back from their 11-3 team from last season. They lost three of their four starters in the secondary with two now playing in the NFL and one leaving in the transfer portal — and that leaves an inexperienced defensive backfield against this Bulldogs passing attack under Lebby.

FINAL TAKE: The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played in September — and Mississippi State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams outside the SEC. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Mississippi State Bulldogs (182) minus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). THE SITUATION: Texas A&M (0-0) returns 18 starters from a team that finished 7-6 last season in their 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from their group that finished 10-3 after a 40-8 victory against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES MINUS THE POINTS: This game offers a fresh start for a Texas A&M program that remains loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Head coach Jimbo Fisher took his powder keg of a situation in College Station last season and threw dynamite on it by hiring two new coordinators (and former head coaches) with sketchy backgrounds in OC Bobby Petrino and DC D.J. Durkin. After the Aggies lost four the fourth time to Ole Miss in early November, Fisher was fired the next week. Texas A&M finished the season 7-6 but played with heart in a 31-23 loss to Oklahoma State in the Texas Bowl despite being without 30 of their players including 12 starts even before starting quarterback Jaylen Henderson left the game on the first play because of injury. The new head coach is Mike Elko who was the defensive coordinator under Fisher from the 2018 through 2021 season. He exceeded expectations at Duke by overseeing a 16-9 record in his two seasons there. Elko inherits an Aggies roster still loaded with talent from years of top-ten recruiting classes assembled by Fisher. Eighteen starters are back from last year’s team that outgained SEC opponents by +74 net Yards-Per-Game. The negative culture in College State during Fisher’s reign might have contributed to the Aggies losing all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. ESPN’s Bill Connelly SP+ rankings still placed Texas A&M as the 16th-best team in the country at the end of the season. Elko was aggressive in the transfer portal, especially on the defensive side of the ball where he brought in 14 new players including eight in the defensive backfield. Injuries at the quarterback position marred Fisher’s tenure as well with seven different quarterbacks having to play in the last two seasons due to injuries. Junior Conner Weigman was ranked third in the nation in Total QBR before his season-ending broken foot in Game Four last season. He is a former 5-star recruit with NFL potential. In his nine career games, Weigman has thrown for 1875 yards with 16 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. The biggest concern remains the offensive line which was an area that Fisher struggled to get right. Three starters return from that unit — and when considering the transfer players Elko brought in, there are 112 combined starts represented from the group. New offensive coordinator Collin Klein will have the element of surprise tonight implementing a new offensive scheme for this team after finding success the last two seasons as the offensive coordinator at Kansas State. Don’t be surprised if he deploys an aggressive run scheme leaning on a crowded running back room of blue-chip talent. For Notre Dame, excitement is sky-high in South Bend in what could be their deepest roster in three decades. Third-year head coach Marcus Freeman has done a nice job mixing old-school recruiting of high schoolers enamored with the Notre Dame brand with targeting areas of need in high-profile transfer players. But is his looking for the shiny object at quarterback thwarting the development of potentially better options under center? My biggest question regarding the Fighting Irish in the offseason last year was whether “the addition of Wake Forest transfer Sam Hartman complement or stall the momentum this team found last season. After an 0-3 start in 2022, the Fighting Irish found a successful identity in running the football with a power running game behind a great offensive line which played into their talent and helped their defense.” Hartman was considered a Heisman Trophy candidate entering the year but inconsistent play and a bad interception in the loss at Clemson had him drawing criticism for much of the season. Such is life as the quarterback for the Golden Domers. But there was plenty of blame to cast. The wide receiver room continued to lack explosiveness and a reliable number-one option. And despite having two tackles drafted into the NFL, it was only Joe Alt who was reliable in pass protection for the Fighting Irish. Now Freeman has responded by tapping LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to run the offense in South Bend. This is Denbrock’s third tour of duty for the Irish after serving as offensive coordinator from 2002-2004 and then from 2010-2016. But bringing him back now certainly seems like Freeman’s desire to install the vertical passing attack that helped Jayden Daniels have so much success last year. Yet even after hitting the transfer portal with three more incoming wide receivers, the room probably does not have anyone approaching the talent of Mike Nabors or Brian Thomas. Freeman turned to the ACC again by inking Duke’s Riley Leonard to the program after he entered the portal. Leonard has a big arm and nice mobility, who put up some good numbers with the Blue Devils — but accuracy and durability are concerns. He was not as highly touted or recruited as redshirt sophomore Steve Angeli who played well in the Irish’s 40-8 win against Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. A further move away from the power run game that worked so well in the second half of 2022 may not be playing into the talent on the roster. The Fighting Irish defense could be the foundation forming the identity of this team under defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have nine starters back to build on a ground that ranked fifth in the nation by holding their opponents 276.4 Yards-Per-Game. I remain perplexed regarding how close this team is to making a deep run in the new College Football Playoffs. On the one hand, their average margin of victory in their ten wins was by +33 Points-Per-Game. They beat three opponents that finished in the SP+ top-40 by at least three touchdowns. Yet the Irish may simply have become Flat Track Bullies under Freeman with their three losses last year by an average margin of -8.0 PPG. This brings me to this question: what is the signature victory for Notre Dame in the two seasons under Freeman? A 48-20 victory last year against an 8-5 USC team? Their 34-14 win against Clemson the year before probably tops the list. Yet the Irish started that year 0-2 after an upset loss at home as a 20-point favorite against Marshall before later getting upset by Stanford as a 16-point favorite. Last year, a coaching blunder left only 10 Irish defenders on the field on the crucial fourth down play in which Ohio State scored their game-winning touchdown with just one second left in the game. The Fighting Irish would later get overmatched in a 33-20 loss at Louisville. And then in Clemson’s opportunity for revenge, Notre Dame spotted them an 18-point lead in the first half before their comeback fell short. Perhaps these are all just the growing pains of a program that is about to become mainstays in the 12-team playoff year-after-year. On the other hand, what if this is a program that simply hits a ceiling when facing top-15 opponents? If that is the case, then Freeman’s short-term decisions at quarterback and the looming change in focus in philosophy on offense could make them more vulnerable to taking a step or two in the wrong direction. That all said, this is a huge game for the Irish since their relatively easy schedule the rest of the way may put them on the College Football Playoff bubble if they have two losses at the end of the year (and a 10-3 record would probably leave them out — especially with later opponent Florida State already with one loss).

FINAL TAKE: These two are very familiar with each other. Denbrock had great success scheming against this Texas A&M defense with LSU last season — but he had the benefit of three first-round NFL draft picks in Daniels, Nabors, and Thomas. There may be no head coach better prepared to devise a game plan against Leonard than Elko after he was his head coach for the last two seasons. And, of course, Elko has familiarity with Notre Dame after serving as their defensive coordinator. Finally, the atmosphere at Kyle Field should be electric where the Aggies have won 11 home openers in a row while covering the point spread in 7 of those games. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Texas A&M Aggies (210) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (209). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Michigan (14-0) advanced to the National Championship Game with their 27-20 victory in overtime against Alabama as a 2-point favorite on Monday. Washington (14-0) joined them in this showdown with their 37-31 upset victory against Texas as a 3.5-point underdog on Monday. This game is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINTS: Michigan survived their sloppiest game of the season — and probably the worst special teams performance in the Jim Harbaugh era — to rally and beat the Crimson Tide. The Wolverines muffed a punt in the first quarter that led to Alabama scoring a touchdown. They flubbed an extra point and then missed a field goal to spot Alabama another four points. And then Michigan almost suffered their most embarrassing loss in the history of their athletic program — putting Chris Webber’s time out to rest — when punt returner Jake Thaw muffed that punt with under two minutes to go which almost handed the Crimson Tide the winning score. But Thaw salvaged the moment with a great play by recovering the ball and avoiding the safety to keep his team alive for overtime. The surprising aspect to those events is that the Wolverines have been outstanding with their special teams this season — they ranked fourth in the nation in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings for special teams before that game and still rank seventh afterward . I suspect that was a nightmare outlier that will not be repeated. Moving to their matchup with the Huskies, this Michigan program has been built to compete against an explosive pass-first offense like what Washington has since it closely resembles Ohio State under head coach Ryan Day — and the Wolverines have dominated the Buckeyes for three straight seasons. While the Ohio State team this season did not have a quarterback as nearly as accurate and effective as the Huskies’ Michael Penix, the Wolverines successfully dealt with the Buckeyes’ CJ Stroud who was throwing to at least two future first-round draft picks at wide receiver. Michigan has two high draft picks cornerback Will Johnson and slot corner Mike Sainristil to address Washington’s outstanding trio of wide receivers. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has been great in deploying sophisticated blitz schemes coming from all angles like the Wolverines’ previous defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald is now executing with the Baltimore Ravens. After sacking Alabama’s Jalen Milroe six times last week, they have 16 sacks in their last four games. The Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the nation — but redshirt freshman Parker Brailsford is a weak link at center. Senior defensive tackle Kris Jenkins was considered Michigan’s best defensive lineman before the season started but he may have been overtaken by sophomore defensive tackle Mason Graham. If — and when — the Wolverines establish pressure in the middle, then Penix may experience more disruption than he has all season, especially since the inside pass rush is most lethal to quarterbacks. If these contests between elite teams are decided by who wins the physical battle at the line of scrimmage, Michigan has the edge after proving themselves against Ohio State and now Alabama. Schematically, the Wolverines threw a wrinkle at the Crimson Tide by deploying three wide receivers and then relying heavily on pre-snap motion to divorce the Alabama defenders from their coaches' instructions. Nick Saban lamented afterward that Michigan’s reliance on the traditional huddle actually hurt his coaching since it delayed the deployment of their scheme and afforded him not enough time to communicate adjustments to his defensive players on the fly. Washington’s defense is not at that level — but the Wolverines returning to their base two tight-end formation will allow them to play heavy while being comfortable using tempo and going to a passing attack since both their tight ends, Colston Loveland and A.J. Barner, will get drafted into the NFL because of their pass-catching skills. Michigan’s bread-and-butter is inside zone rushing plays — and the Huskies went into the playoff ranking 132nd in Opponent Offensive Line Years and 129th in Opponent Rush Success Rate. Running back Blake Corum (and Donovan Edwards, little used versus Alabama only because of the game script and the 11 personnel wrinkle) is poised for a big game. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game that finished Over the Total. One of the underrated aspects of this Michigan team is their lack of mistakes (making the special teams blunders on Monday such an aberration). They have only committed eight turnovers all season after the one blunder with the punt return against Alabama (with their only multi-turnover game occurring in September against Bowling Green) — and they have not committed a turnover in nine of their games this season. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after not committing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Furthermore, Michigan ranks second in the nation by committing only 40 penalties all season and averaging just 26.2 penalty Yards-Per-Game. The Huskies have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road against teams who do not commit more than 42 penalty YPG. And while the Wolverines led the nation by allowing only 243.1 YPG, they held their opponents to just 4.3 Yards-Per-Play — and Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games against teams who do not allow more than 4.5 YPP. I appreciate — and I have spent a few days considering — that Penix is similar to Joe Burrow whose transcendent talents can elevate everyone around him. On the other hand, the power of the Regression Gods is usually more powerful in the end — so I worry about the Huskies perfect 8-0 record in one-possession games being a bubble that is about to burst. While I think the Huskies' defense is underrated, one cannot hide around the fact that they allow 407.4 YPG — and they have given up 414.0 YPG in their last three games. The margin for error is so small for Penix — and Michigan has five defensive touchdowns and relied on their special teams to turn games in their favor (even after Monday’s debacle). Washington surrendered 498 yards against the Longhorns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last game. They almost gave the game away to Texas in those final few minutes which questions their championship mettle. While they will come into the game hopeful and confident, they lack experience at this level — and that makes a difference against a Wolverines that made winning this game their goal after losing in the semifinals the last two seasons. And then there is the injury to running back Dillon Johnson who could not stand on his injured foot/leg at the end of the game on Monday. He is listed as probable in the National Championship, but if he is not close to 100 or re-injures this lingering ongoing for him late in the season, then the Huskies will be left one-dimensional since his 222 carries overwhelms his backup, freshman Tybo Rogers’ 43 carries.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field when favored. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (288) minus the points versus the Washington Huskies (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282) in the Sugar Bowl and Semifinals of the College Football Playoffs. THE SITUATION: Texas (12-1) has won seven games in a row after their 49-21 victory against Oklahoma State as a 14.5-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 2nd. Washington (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 34-31 upset victory against Oregon as a 9.5-point underdog in the Pac-12 Championship Game on December 1st. This game is being played at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Many pundits expect this contest to be a high-scoring game — but there are clues from when these teams played in the Alamo Bowl that suggest this will be lower-scoring than expected. Despite these two teams each gaining at least 420 yards and combining for 865 total yards of offense, only 47 combined points were scored in Washington’s 27-20 victory. Texas could not run the ball against the Huskies’ defensive front as they only gained 51 yards on 18 carries as the offense became one-dimensional. The Longhorns were committed to limiting the explosiveness of the Washington passing attack so they played a quarters scheme in their secondary which stymied quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. to just one completion of 20 or more air yards. The Huskies moved the ball methodically with Penix completing all 11 of his screen passes to wide receivers and the ground game gobbling up 158 yards on 28 carries. Washington controlled time of possession by having the ball for 35:46 minutes of that game to keep Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers off the field. The Huskies deployed a similar strategy against the Ducks last month as their offense was on the field for 37:08 minutes of that game — and that helped them limit the explosive Oregon offense to just 17 first downs and only 363 total yards. Washington’s defense looks ugly when it comes to the advanced metrics — but they did only allow 23.6 Points-Per-Game this season. That unit played better later in the season once they started getting healthier — I think this is an underrated unit. The Huskies have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a victory against a Pac-12 rival by seven points or less. And while their win against Oregon was preceded by a narrow 24-21 victory against Washington State in the Apple Cup, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after winning two games in a row against conference rivals by seven points or less. Additionally, Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road on field turf. And while the Longhorns score 36.2 PPG, the Huskies have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams who score 34 or more PPG. Washington generates 470.4 total YPG — but Texas has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total against teams who average 450 or more YPG. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. Ewers passed for 452 yards against the Cowboys in the Big 12 Championship Game — but Texas has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for 325 or more yards in their last contest. The Longhorns have scored 106 combined points in their last two games while gaining 662 and 528 yards in those contests — but they have then played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after gaining 31 or more points in two straight games. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards of offense in two games in a row. Despite these dynamic offensive numbers, there are some concerns underneath the hood. Texas ranks 121st in the country in Red Zone Touchdown Rate — and they are only 72nd in the country in Finishing Drives. Long possessions that end in field goals ruin Overs when the Total is set in the 60s or higher. Ewers only averages 7.3 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which is the lowest of the four quarterbacks playing in the semifinals — and his Total QBR ranking of 15th in the nation is also the lowest of the final four QBs. The Longhorns rank 89th in the nation in Explosiveness in the passing game. On the other side of the line of scrimmage, Texas boasts an elite run defense led by their two anchors on the defensive line, T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy II. They only allow 80.8 rushing YPG so the Huskies may struggle to match their rushing numbers from the Alamo Bowl last year. The Longhorns have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set at 63 or higher — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after a bye week.  

FINAL TAKE: Neither of these teams play at a blindingly fast pace. Red Zone stops, limited explosiveness, and both teams working the Time of Possession battle is a great recipe for a lower-than-expected combined score. Texas has played 8 of their 12 games Under the Total when favored — and Washington has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog. 25* College Football Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Texas Longhorns (281) and the Washington Huskies (282). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279) in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Michigan (13-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 26-0 victory against Iowa as a 21.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 2nd. Alabama (12-1) has won 11 games in a row after their 27-24 upset victory as a 5.5-point underdog against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on December 2nd. This game is being played at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLVERINES MINUS THE POINT(S): There have been plenty of casual dismissals of this Michigan team despite their being ranked at the top of most analytics-based power rankings. Anonymous Big Ten coaches were quoted in an article in The Athletic earlier this month where they predicted an easy Alabama victory. It’s funny how these coaches know more about the intricacies of the Crimson Tide than they do the Wolverines considering Michigan has won 24 games in a row in conference play. There are a lot of haters in the Big Ten against Jim Harbaugh right now — epitomized by the moral panic surrounding the pending investigation regarding overzealous sign decoding schemes (every football team attempts to “steal” signs — and it is mostly a legal practice). Any doubt that the Wolverines' recent success was due to an illegal or unethical theft of inside information was debunked in November when they soundly defeated Penn State and Ohio State. Critics downplay their strength of schedule — but the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes are widely considered two of the top-ten teams in the nation and that Iowa team they beat in the Big Ten Championship Game had the best statistical defense in the nation. The passing game was not nearly as explosive at the end of the season with the Wolverines not passing for more than 147 yards in four straight games — but that is a whine about style points. With offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore serving as the interim head coach in three of those games, Michigan stuck to what was working with a methodical rushing attack that protected their lead. Only throwing the ball eight times against Penn State but still winning on the road by nine points is a sign of domination. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy was dealing with some nagging injuries in those games so not exposing him to more hits was a way to help set up their playoff run. The Wolverines still scored more points against Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa than any other opponent — those are all top-ten defenses in the nation. McCarthy now claims he is back to 100% — and the Wolverines may unleash their passing attack that was explosive against Ohio State and TCU last year as well as Michigan State and Purdue this season. Critics also reference Michigan’s six-game losing streak in bowl games. The loss in the playoffs against Georgia two years ago was not unexpected — but last year’s loss to TCU was reflective of an arrogant offensive game plan that was compounded by McCarthy throwing two pick-sixes. Both Harbaugh and McCarthy have waited all season to redeem themselves from that game — and the entire team should benefit from their recent playoff experience that these Alabama players do not have. The other four bowl game losses mean next to nothing since they were pre-COVID and during a period when Harbaugh began using lesser-tiered bowl games as the audition for the upcoming season. Three straight victories against Ohio State demonstrate Harbaugh can prepare his team for big games. Michigan has been the most consistent team in the country this season. While they want to win behind their dominant offensive line and two-headed monster of running backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards, McCarthy has demonstrated he can win games with his arm and with his mobility. The Wolverines' defense is elite after allowing only 239.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 9.5 Points-Per-Game. Harbaugh claimed there are at least 17 players on the roster who will be drafted into the NFL in April. While Michigan does not recruit at the level of Alabama, their player development takes a back seat to no program. The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a victory against a Big Ten rival. Protecting the football has been a priority since the loss to TCU last year. Michigan has only seven turnovers all season — and they did not turn the ball over in nine of their games including against Ohio State and Iowa. They have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 34 games after not turning the ball over more than once in their last game. Alabama deserves plenty of credit for upsetting Georgia — but the narrative all season was how down this team was from previous seasons. They needed a miracle final pass play from Jalen Milroe to beat Auburn. And while Milroe improved as offensive coordinator Tommy Rees adapted his game plans for his skill set, and he struggles with accuracy and reading defenses. He had only one Big Time Throw and seven turnover-worthy plays in his 62 passes in the 10-19 yard range. His offensive line is not as stout as in previous seasons — they ranked 128th in sacks allowed. The wide receiver unit has lacked elite talent for two years and is no longer an NFL factory. The secondary remains outstanding — but the defensive line is not nearly as stout. Alabama ranks 58th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Line Yards — and they rank 103rd in Stuff Rate. They have struggled against mobile quarterbacks like Auburn’s Payton Thorne who is not as dangerous as McCarthy. The Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after an upset victory. And while they have covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in eight or more of their last ten games.

FINAL TAKE: Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck declared that this Michigan team may be the best college team he has ever coached against after playing them earlier in the season. I think the notion of SEC dominance is already dead in the NIL and transfer portal era. What was Georgia’s best win this season? What was Alabama’s second-best win? Are they being elevated because of legacy? Granted, the same can be said about Michigan and Ohio State — and that is where laptops come in which generally project a point spread larger than the market’s betting line. The Buckeyes might have outplayed Georgia in the semifinals last year (and won that game if Marvin Harrison does not get injured). The Wolverines have covered the point spread in 7 straight games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Game of the Year with the Michigan Wolverines (280) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (279). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272) in the Arizona Bowl. THE SITUATION: Toledo (11-2) had their 11-game winning streak snapped in a 23-14 loss to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 2nd. Wyoming (8-4) has won two games in a row after their 42-6 victory at Nevada as an 11-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at the Arizona Stadium in Tucson, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rockets will be without their top two offensive players in this game after both starting quarterback DeQuan Finn and running back Peny Boone entered the transfer portal. Finn was the Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year while Boone rushed for 1400 yards on 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Their losses are significant. As it is, while Toledo generated 428.8 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in 33.6 Points-Per-Game, those drop to 399.3 YPG and 25.9 PPG when they are playing away from home. The Rockets have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after an upset loss — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. Toledo has a tough defense that held their opponents to just 329.7 total YPG and 20.6 PPG. Cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to opt-put — but the Rockets' secondary is loaded with experience and talent led by safety Maxen Hook who is a two-time All-MAC award winner. Toledo has only forced one turnover in their last three games — but they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight games. They have played 12 of their last 14 games Under the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game. Wyoming held the Wolf Pack to just 201 yards in their most recent game. The Cowboys held their opponents to only 22.9 PPG this season. Wyoming has played 31 of their last 46 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. And while they limited Nevada to just 3.65 Yards-Per-Play, they have then played 4 straight Unders after holding their last opponent to 4.0 or fewer YPP. They outgained the Wolf Pack by +208 net yards — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total on the road after outgaining their previous opponent by +225 or more YPG. The Cowboys have only given up 85 total rushing yards in their last two games — and they have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two or more games in a row. With this being head coach Craig Bohl’s final game with the team before his retirement, a spirited effort is expected. But the offensive side of the ball has faced some turmoil after offensive coordinator Tim Polasek left to take the head coaching job at North Dakota State. In their five games away from home, the Cowboys generated only 286.6 total YPG resulting in just 20.0 PPG. Wyoming has played 12 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Toledo is outscoring their opponents by +13.0 PPG — and the Cowboys have played 38 of their last 57 games Under the Total against teams outscoring their opponents by +10.0 or more PPG. The Rockets have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total against opponents winning 60-75% of their games. 25* CFB Group of Five Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Toledo Rockets (271) and the Wyoming Cowboys (272). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263) in the Cotton Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) looks to rebound from their 30-24 loss at Michigan as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. Missouri (10-2) has won three games in a row after their 48-14 win at Arkansas as a 9-point favorite on November 24th. This game is being played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State outgained the Wolverines by a +38 net yards but was held back by a -2 net turnover margin. The Buckeyes have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a straight-up loss. This team is dealing with several opt-outs and transfers. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Jr. and defensive tackle Mike Hall are opting out for the NFL. The long transfer portal list includes starting quarterback Kyle McCord, wide receiver Julian Fleming, and reliable running back Chip Trayanum. But Ohio State still has plenty of high-end talent playing in this game who are future NFL players. Star running back TreVeyon Henderson has decided to play in this game — and that speaks loudly as to how seriously this team is treating this contest. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka is playing and will use this game to showcase his skills as the clear number one option. The defense still has defensive end Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, and cornerbacks Denzel Burke and Jordan Hancock. This bowl game offers head coach Ryan Day to begin auditioning for starting jobs for next season. Perhaps the biggest beneficiary of bowl practices is redshirt freshman quarterback Devin Brown. While he lost the competition for the starting job to McCord in the spring, his athleticism still got him onto the field for 72 snaps including some important goal-line sequences before he got injured in the Penn State game. Brown is yet another blue-chipper — and he may not be a drop off from McCord whose up-and-down play led to him leaving the program (for Syracuse!). Ohio State does significantly better than Missouri in recruiting season after season. Look for defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to get back to his roots regarding aggressive schemes after he scaled things back after Michigan and Georgia consistently burned them on explosive plays. The Buckeyes have not forced more than one turnover in seven straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games after playing three or more games in a row after failing to force more than one turnover in a game. Additionally, Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when getting two or more weeks of rest and preparation. Missouri only gained 370 total yards against the Razorbacks despite scoring 48 points. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road by 28 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by 21 or more points. Their win against Arkansas came after a 33-31 win against Florida the previous week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two or more games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored. Missouri was one of the surprise teams in the country this season — they pulled off three upset victories to reach ten wins. They also benefited from a 4-0 record in games decided by one scoring possession — and they also enjoyed a +4 net turnover margin. First-year offensive coordinator Kirby Moore did a nice job installing game plans that put junior quarterback Brady Cook into a position to succeed — and five-start wide receiver Luther Burden III is a future NFL start. But the Buckeyes have studied these schemes for a month. The Tigers' defense will be down to starters with cornerback Ennis Rakestraw and linebacker Ty’ron Hopper dealing with injuries.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri has failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 20 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games in non-conference play. Ohio State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on a neutral field with the Total set at 49.5-52. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Ohio State Buckeyes (264) minus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (263). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240) in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl. THE SITUATION: Kansas (8-4) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. UNLV (9-4) has lost two games in a row after their 44-20 loss at home to Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Jayhawks generated 562 total yards against the Bearcats — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after gaining at least 475 or more yards in their last game. They have also played 15 of their last 20 games Over the Total after a double-digit win against a Big 12 conference rival — and they have played 6 straight Overs after losing two of their last three games. The program did lose offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki who left the for same job at Penn State — so head coach Lance Leipold elevated quarterbacks coach Jim Zebrowski was elevated to co-offensive coordinator and veteran OC Jeff Grimes was already hired to be the new offensive coordinator and will coach this game. Quarterback Jason Bean will lead an offense that ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate. Bean joins running back Devin Neal to form an explosive rushing attack that ranks 17th in Rushing Success Rate. By deploying plenty of counter schemes, Kansas sees 25% of their rushing plays go for at least 12 yards. But the Jayhawks give up their share of points — when playing away from home, their opponents are generating 430.6 total Yards-Per-Game resulting in  28.0 Points-Per-Game. One of their problems is they do not stop drives by forcing turnovers — they have not forced more than one turnover in four straight games. Kansas has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in their last game — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after failing to force more than one turnover in two straight games. And in their last 33 games after not forcing more than one turnover in three straight games, they played 23 of those games Over the Total. UNLV has played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss to a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss at home to a conference opponent. They have also played 39 of their last 60 games Over the Total after losing two games in a row to a conference opponent. Operating the GoGo offense under offensive coordinator Brennan Marion, the Rebels are generating 425.0 YPG and 34.7 PPG when playing on the road. The GoGo approach operates without a huddle with heavy pre-snap motions while deploying almost every formation imaginable to confuse their opponents. But the UNLV defense is vulnerable as they have given up 477.0 YPG and 36.0 PPG in their last three contests. They rank 126th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Rebels allowed 8.24 Yards-Per-Play to the Broncos in the MWC Championship Game — and they have played 15 of their last 19 games Over the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP in their last contest. That game against Boise State finished Over the 62.5-point Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV has scored 31 or more points in nine of their games — and Kansas has scored 31 or more points in eight of their contests. The Jayhawks have played 22 of their last 31 games Over the Total when getting at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPN Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Kansas Jayhawks (239) and the UNLV Rebels (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225) in the Armed Forces Bowl. THE SITUATION: Air Force (8-4) limps into this game on a four-game losing streak after their 27-19 loss at Boise State as a 7-point underdog on November 24th. James Madison (11-1) rebounded from their first loss of the season to Appalachian State with a 56-14 victory at Coastal Carolina as an 8.5-point favorite on November 25th. This game is being played at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS PLUS THE POINTS: Air Force opened their campaign with eight straight victories before a demoralizing 24-3  loss to Army that jeopardized their ability to claim their second-straight Commanders Cup. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier then got injured the next week at Hawai’i and did not play in the final two games of the regular season which played a big role in the Falcons slide. Larrier is expected to take the field this afternoon after taking part in bowl practices and being listed atop the quarterback depth chart of head coach Troy Calhoun. Air Force generated 33.6 Points-Per-Game during their eight-game winning streak while scoring at least 30 points five times — so Larrier’s return is a big boost to their offensive attack as the former 200-meter track champion is a threat with his legs in the flexbone system. And with Larrier’s arm, this offense led the nation in Passing Explosiveness for the times they did go to the air. The Falcons will also bring a very good defense with them that held their opponents to 278.8 total Yards-Per-Game and 17.9 PPG. Air Force ranks 34th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 30th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to three points. Air Force should have close to a full roster for this game with opt-outs and transfers rarely an issue for service academy programs — and the injury list is light. James Madison has many players entering the transfer portal — but all of these players are still playing in this game as they try to end a great season on a high note. But they will not have head coach Curt Cignetti who left the program to take the Indiana head coaching job — and he took offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, quarterbacks coach Tino Sunseri, and defensive coordinator Bryant Haines with him. Offensive line coach Damian Wroblewski serves as the interim head coach — but only four other assistant coaches remain which required the program to hire five temporary coaches to help prepare for this game. I don’t love that dynamic for the Dukes — and I have no idea how effective the coaching will be on defense to address the unique Air Force flexbone triple option attack. It is fair to say that this is less than ideal. James Madison has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a double-digit win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning four or five of their last six games. And while they held a 28-0 halftime lead against the Chanticleers in their last game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than three points in the first half of their last game. Having senior quarterback Jordan McCloud under center one more time before he transfers away from the program certainly helps — but while the Dukes’ passing attack ranked fifth in Passing Success Rate, they ranked just 91st in Pass Explosiveness. Their rushing game ranked just 101st in Rushing Explosiveness as well.

FINAL TAKE: While many think the name of the game in handicapping college bowl games is assessing “motivation”, I consider that folly. First, it just guessing — and if you are guessing, you are losing. Most of the time, there is a lack of evidence for the guess since it is impossible to read the hearts and minds of the players. Secondly, the oddsmakers already take the “motivation” narrative into account — so basing bets on that analysis is actually counter-productive since one is simply doubling down on that guess.  That said, I suspect the James Madison players will be motivated. But we don’t have to guess about Air Force as Calhoun consistently has his teams ready to play in bowl games. Here is actual evidence: the Falcons have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games in December including 11 of their last 17 bowl games. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their 12 bowl games under Calhoun — and that is a trend that refutes the trendy conventional wisdom that Air Force loses its strategic edge with their unique offensive schemes since their opponents have more time to prepare. 25* CFB Group of Five Game of the Year with the Air Force Falcons (226) plus (or minus) the points versus the James Madison Dukes (225). Best of luck for us — Frank.                                              

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Louisville (10-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss to Kentucky as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (12-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 24-15 win at Florida as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CARDINALS PLUS THE POINTS: I was looking to fade the Seminoles even before the season-ending injury to senior quarterback Jordan Travis. Junior Tate Rodemaker is a big drop in talent — but now his presence in this game is doubtful after he suffered a concussion in last week’s game. He was not great even against subpar Florida defense as he completed 12 of 25 passes for 134 yards. He is a game-time decision — and even if miraculously passes the strict concussion protocols, he has a big challenge tonight. If Rodemaker cannot go, then it is freshman Brock Glenn who will get the start. On the plus side, Glenn was a four-star recruit out of Tennessee who flipped his commitment from Ohio State back to Florida State after long being a target by the Seminoles. However, in my deep dive into the recruiting archives on his history, I am seeing comments such as “will need a year or two of development” before being ready to play at the Power Five level — so this is far from ideal for someone playing against high school players last year. He missed three weeks of practice time due to injury — and he only has four pass attempts in game action this season. He is a pro-style quarterback who will run the ball with his above-average athleticism — but he is not a speedster. He had a proclivity to throw interceptions in high school. Florida State already faces tons of pressure of needing to win this game to make the College Football Playoff. They enjoyed a soft schedule after getting by LSU early in the season — and that was a game where Travis carried them with his play-making against what we would learn was a bad Tigers defense. The Seminoles were very fortunate to beat Clemson who outgained them by +118 net yards. They also got outgained in yardage by Boston College and Miami (FL) but pulled out games decided by one-scoring possession with Travis at quarterback. Florida State only ran for 90 yards last week on 31 carries despite needing to rely on their running backs given the Travis injury — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to rush for more than 100 yards in their last game. While Trey Benson has rushed for a lot of yards, the Seminoles rank 109th in Rushing Success Rate. The problem is their offensive line as they rank only 123rd in the nation in Line Yards. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after winning eight or more games in a row. Louisville has an excellent defense that holds their opponents to 317.2 total Yards-Per-Game and 20.0 Points-Per-Game. They rank 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The Cardinals' defense is balanced as they rank 17th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 16th in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They have a very good defensive line led by defensive end Ashton Gillotte that ranks fifth in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. They have generated 30 sacks and 54 tackles for loss — and that will likely spell trouble for the freshman quarterback in his first collegiate start. On offense, the Cardinals are led by an experienced graduate student Jack Plummer who is five years of experience learning under head coach Jeff Brohm in operating his version of the Air Raid offense. Louisville ranks 18th in the nation in Success Rate on offense -- and they are balanced. They rank 20th in the nation in Rush Success Rate and 11th in the nation in Pass Success Rate. The Cardinals have the opportunity to redeem themselves by giving last week’s in-state rivalry game away against the Wildcats. They gave the ball away three times in the second half including two times inside their 40-yard line to gift Kentucky 10 points and blow their 10-point second-half lead. Louisville has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread loss.

FINAL TAKE: If the play at quarterback will not make the difference in this game, the Cardinals have the edge in head coaches as well. Brohm’s teams have covered the point spread in 28 of their 45 games as an underdog going back to his six seasons at Purdue — and his teams have covered the point spread in 13 of their 16 games against teams who are outscoring their opponents by +17.0 or more PPG (Florida State: +22.0 PPG). Florida State head coach Mike Norvell’s teams have failed to cover the point spread against teams winning 75% or more of their games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in December. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Louisville Cardinals (322) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318) in the SEC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-0) has won 29 straight games after their 31-23 victory against Georgia Tech as a 24-point favorite last Saturday. Alabama (11-1) has won ten straight games after a 27-24 win at Auburn on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This Bulldogs team is not quite as stout as it has been the previous two seasons. Being a feeder to the NFL has eventually taken its toll on this unit, especially up front. Georgia only ranks 81st in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks. Now they face Jalen Milroe who has a body type like another former Crimson Tide quarterback — Jalen Hurts. Milroe is averaging 7.24 Yards-Per-Carry (excluding sacks). The Bulldogs have allowed 20 or more points in six of their last nine games after the Yellow Jackets put up 23 points on the scoreboard. Georgia has played 11 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a straight-up win where they did not cover the point spread including five of those six circumstances this season. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point-spread loss. And in their last 9 games after winning three or more games in a row, they have played 6 of those games Over the Total. But while their defensive front is not quite as dominant this season, the Georgia offensive line is stacked with at least four future NFLers in that group. The Bulldogs have allowed only ten quarterback sacks all season — and quarterback Carson Beck has been outstanding when given time in the pocket. When not facing pressure, Beck has completed 75% of his passes for 3189 passing yards with 17 touchdown passes. Georgia ranks third in the nation in Pass Success Rate — and they should be able to run the ball against an Alabama front that is not as stout either from past seasons as they rank 63rd in the nation in Line Yards Allowed. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total against SEC opponents. Alabama has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in conference play. Since returning to the field after getting benched early in the season, Milroe has 26 touchdowns and only five turnovers. He has a big arm — and he ranks fourth in the nation by averaging 21.2 yards per pass attempt of at least 20 air yards. The Crimson Tide generated 451 total yards last week against the Tigers — including that miracle fourth-and-31-yard conversion to win the game. Alabama is going to be feisty in this game. The Crimson Tide has played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total after a win against an SEC rival. They have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by six points or less. They had scored at least 34 points in four straight games before only scoring 27 points last week in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has won 16 straight games played in Atlanta — so they are not going to back down to the reigning two-time National Champions. Despite their mutual reputations for defense, these two teams have played 9 of their last 11 meetings against each other Over the Total — and the last three SEC Championship Games have finished Over the Total. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (317) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) has won four games in a row after their 17-15 win at Ball State as a 5-point favorite last Saturday. Toledo (11-1) won their 11th straight game last Friday in a 32-17 victory at Central Michigan as a 10-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) is the Group of Five version of the Iowa Hawkeyes under head coach Chuck Martin in his tenth season with the program. The RedHawks can struggle to score — they are a run-first team that will play at a slow pace to shorten the game. But their defense is excellent — they rank 15th in the nation in Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. They have held their last four opponents to just 41 combined points with none of those foes scoring more than 16 points. For the season, Miami (OH) is allowing just 323.1 total Yards-Per-Game which is resulting in only 16.3 PPG. The RedHawks special teams are outstanding as well — Connelly ranks them the best unit in the nation using his SP+ metrics. And this is a team that does not make many mistakes as they rank 11th in the nation in fewest penalty yards. They held the Rockets to just 318 total yards in their first meeting of the season on October 21st in a 21-17 loss as a home underdog getting 2-points. It was in that game that junior quarterback Brett Gabbert suffered his season-ending leg injury. Redshirt sophomore Aveon Smith stepped up in his absence to win the last four games of the season under center. He made nine starts last season for this team (after Gabbert went down with season-ending shoulder injury) including their 24-20 loss to UAB in the Bahamas Bowl — so he has plenty of experience. While Smith is capable with his arm, he offers Miami (OH) a rushing threat — the team is RPO-heavy with him at quarterback. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 6 straight road games after a point spread loss. And while they got outrushed by -228 net yards to the Cardinals last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after getting outrushed by -125 or more yards. Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning four or more games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 33 games after winning four of their last five games. Furthermore, the RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. Toledo may be due for an emotional letdown after their strong run through the regular season after an opening-week loss at Illinois. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 road games after winning three games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after beating three straight MAC rivals. They did generate 6.28 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Chippewas — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. And while Toledo has scored at least 31 points in four straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 33 of their last 51 road games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. The Rockets' offense was propped up all season by a soft schedule consisting of mostly mediocre defenses. Their non-conference schedule was against Texas Southern, San Jose State, and the Fighting Illini. They only managed 318 total yards against the RedHawks in the first meeting between these two teams. Junior quarterback DeQaun Finn is prone to mistakes. While he threw 21 touchdown passes with just eight interceptions in the regular season, his “Big Time” throws dropped to just 17 — and he committed 14 turnover-worthy plays according to the metrics at Pro Football Focus. Toledo failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when listed as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) has covered the point spread in  8 of their last 10 opportunities for revenge — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when avenging a loss of seven points or less. The underdog has won four of the last five Mid-American Conference Championship Games — and three of those dogs were getting more than 3.5 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Year with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (311) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (312). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308) in the Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: New Mexico State (10-3) is on an eight-game winning streak after their 20-17 upset win at Jacksonville State as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Liberty (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 42-28 victory at UTEP as a 17-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies held the Gamecocks to just 333 total yards last week. They have held their last three opponents to just 327.7 total Yards-Per-Game which has resulted in them scoring only 18.7 Points-Per-Game. New Mexico State’s defense ranks 39th in the nation using Bill Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free metrics. Head coach Jerry Kill deploys a ball control offense — they pass the ball at the 103rd lowest rate in the FBS. The Aggies have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win against a conference opponent. They have played 4 straight Unders after an upset victory — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point-spread victory. New Mexico State has held their last two opponents to 85 and 65 rushing yards — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Aggies already play tough defense against the pass — they rank 27th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. On the other side of the ball, New Mexico is a good running team that ranks sixth in the nation in Rushing Success Rate — so they should be able to sustain some drives. But they have not scored more than 28 points in eight of their last 11 games. On the other hand, they have held nine of their last 10 opponents to no more than 24 points. The Aggies play on the road at Williams Stadium having played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Liberty held the Miners to just 271 total yards last week — and they have played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a double-digit victory against a conference rival. The Flames took a 28-7 lead at halftime in that game — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 24 or more points in the first half of their last contest. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points. Frankly, Liberty has been feasting on some of the worst defenses in the nation with nine of their 12 opponents ranking 85th or lower in Connelly’s SP+ tempo-free defensive ratings. When they played a Jacksonville State team that ranks 49th in the SP+ defensive rankings, their 31 points were the second-fewest of the season— and their 422 total yards in the game were -76.9 fewer than their season average. On the other side of the ball, Liberty has held their last three opponents to only 314.0 total YPG which has resulted in just 21.0 PPG. They rank 43rd in the SP+ defensive rankings — and their Havoc Rate is seventh best in the nation. The Flames host this championship game having played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5-63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams by 16 points — although their 33 points were the third-fewest they scored all season. The Aggies have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total when attempting to avenge a loss at home. Both of these teams play at a slower pace — New Mexico State ranks 309th in the nation by averaging 30.9 seconds per play and the Flames average 28.8 seconds per play which ranks 97th.  25* CBB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the New Mexico State Aggies (307) and the Liberty Flames (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.  

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). THE SITUATION: Kentucky (6-5) has lost five of their last six games after their 17-14 loss at South Carolina as a 2.5-point underdog last Saturday. Louisville (10-1) has won four games in a row after their 38-31 upset win at Miami (FL) as a 1-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wildcats held the Gamecocks to only 257 yards of offense last week — but they only managed 293 total yards in the three-point loss. Kentucky’s defense has been solid as they have held their last three opponents to just 307.0 total Yards-Per-Game — but they are only generating 272.7 total YPG in their last three games which is resulting in just 19.7 Points-Per-Game. The Wildcats have played 42 of their last 65 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 26 of their last 39 games Under the Total after a loss by seven points or less to an SEC rival including four straight Under in those circumstances. Kentucky has also played 6 straight games Under the Total on the road after a point-spread loss. Additionally, the Wildcats have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. Kentucky will find it difficult to move the ball against this Cardinals defense. The Wildcats rank 71st in the nation Rushing Success Rate behind a mediocre offensive line that ranks 99th in Line Yards. Louisville ranks 17th in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed fueled by a defensive line that ranks 6th in Line Yards. The Cardinals also rank 17th in Opponent Passing Success Allowed. Kentucky stays on the road where they are generating only 278.3 total YPG — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total on the road. Louisville has the ACC Championship Game on deck next week against Florida State. The Cardinals have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after winning five or six of their last seven games. And while they have scored at least 31 points in three straight games, they have then played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. They did allow the Hurricanes to generate 7.47 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have then played 11 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after allowing 7.25 or more YPP. They return home where they have held their guests to just 277.8 total YPG which is resulting in only 12.5 PPG. The Cardinals have played 8 of their last 9 home games Under the Total when favored in the 7.5-10 point range. Louisville does play at a methodical pace on offense to help keep their defense rested — they rank 100th in the nation in seconds-per-play. But the Cardinals rank only 91st in the FBS in Offensive Line Yards — and now they face this Kentucky defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Line Yards Allowed.

FINAL TAKE: The Wildcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points — and Louisville has played 27 of their last 40 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points including eight of those last ten circumstances. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Kentucky Wildcats (147) and the Louisville Cardinals (148). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (4-5) has lost two games in a row as well as five of their last six after their 24-21 loss at Duke as a 7-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina State (6-3) pulled off their second-straight upset victory in a 20-6 win against Miami (FL) at home as a 6.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE DEMON DEACONS PLUS THE POINTS: Wake Forest lost to the Blue Devils despite outgaining them by +133 net yards in that game. Look for the Demon Deacons to respond this afternoon with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to an ACC rival. They have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by seven points or less against a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss by six points or less. The biggest question I had for this team in the preseason deep dive was whether Wake Forest’s seven-game bowl streak was in jeopardy this year in the tenth season under head coach Dave Clawson. Only 11 starters returned from the group that finished 8-5 with a 27-17 victory against Missouri in the Outback Bowl. The offense lost four-year starting quarterback Sam Hartman with his decision to transfer to Notre Dame. Clawson is getting solid play out of fourth-year sophomore Mitch Griffis at quarterback — he completed 16 of 19 passes for 241 yards while adding 55 yards on the ground with two touchdowns in the losing effort against Duke. The Demon Deacons played what still remains a good Clemson team close earlier this season in a 17-12 loss. With four victories and games at Notre Dame and Syracuse on deck, this is likely the critical game to maintain Clawson’s bowl streak alive. NC State was riding high after following up their 24-17 upset win against Clemson as a 10-point underdog with their upset win against the Hurricanes. But then sophomore quarterback M.J. Morris surprised the coaching staff by retaining his year of eligibility by taking his redshirt option for the rest of the season. Now head coach Dave Doeren has to turn back to Brennan Armstrong who got benched at the end of September for Morris due to ineffective play. Expectations were high when Armstrong transferred in from Virginia to reunite with offensive coordinator Robert Anae who was his former OC with the Cavaliers. But Armstrong did not fit with Doeren’s more compact offensive philosophy than his successful 2021 campaign with Anae. He completed only 58.8% of his passes with five touchdown passes and six interceptions. His 6.1 Yards-Per-Attempt average is a career-low. The Wolfpack appear primed for an emotional letdown under these circumstances — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning two games in a row while also failing to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after covering the point spread in two straight contests. Both of their upset wins were at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row at home. Now they go back on the road where they are only scoring 17.0 Points-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after playing their last two games at home. Furthermore, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 60 road games when favored including five of their last seven games under those circumstances. NC State may have six wins but they have benefitted from a 3-1 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They have been outgained this season by -13.6 net Yards-Per-Game.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has a 51-38-1 ATS record as an underdog under Clawson — and they have covered the point spread in 30 of their 48 games as an underdog following a loss with Clawson as their head coach. This is the Demon Deacons' last home game of the season — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 home games as an underdog. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (136) plus the points versus the North Carolina State Wolfpack (135). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). THE SITUATION: USC (7-2) snapped their two-game losing streak with a 50-49 win at California as a 10.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (8-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 42-33 win at Stanford on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: Despite the victory last week, the embattled USC defense continued to struggle against the Golden Bears. The Trojans have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 games after allowing 42 or more points in their last game. And while they gave up 28 points in the first half to Cal, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after allowing 24 or more points in the first half of their last game. The problems with the USC defense are mostly against the run — but the Huskies are not likely to commit to running the football. They only averaged 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry last week against the Cardinal on 27 carries after rushing for a mere 13 yards on 13 carries in their previous game against Arizona State. Washington is being slowed down by issues with the interior of their offensive line — and USC does rush the passer as they rank 11th in the nation in Havoc Rate. The Trojans have talent in their secondary — and that is one of the reasons why they are holding opposing quarterbacks to completing just 61.2% of their passes. USC also ranks 21st in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. Washington has been sluggish in their last two games after their triumphant win against Oregon — they only beat Arizona State by a 15-8 score before getting outgained by -39 net yards to a struggling Cardinal team. While the head coach Lincoln Riley (rightly) gets criticized for the underperforming Trojans' defense, the Huskies' defense has been just as bad after watching Stanford generate 499 yards against them. The Huskies rank 125th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 115th in Havoc Rate while ranking 118th in Pressure Rate and 131st Sack Rate — and those are frightening numbers when now facing USC’s Caleb Williams who is averaging 14.0 yards per completion. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win on the road where they failed to cover the point spread. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 475 or more yards in their last contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a game where 70 or more combined points were scored. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games on the road when favored.

FINAL TAKE: USC has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home with the Total set at 63 or higher. In a game that looks like the last quarterback to have the ball wins, look for Williams to outduel Michael Penix, Jr. — and we get the added insurance of the three points for the home dog. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Game of the Year with the USC Trojans (372) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (371). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). THE SITUATION: Clemson (4-4) has also two games in a row after their 24-17 upset loss at North Carolina State as a 10-point favorite last Saturday. Notre Dame (7-2) has won three of their last four games after a 58-7 thrashing at home against Pittsburgh as a 21-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson has suffered two straight upset losses after getting upset at Miami (FL) the previous week. The Tigers did outgain the Wolfpack by +162 net yards as they held them to a mere 202 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin along with a 15-yard interception returned for a touchdown by NC State played a big role in that game. This has been the story of the Clemson season. In their four losses this season, they are outgaining their opponents by more than +300 net Yards-Per-Game but are holding themselves back with a -6 net turnover margin with ten lost fumbles in those contests. Failing to convert on five of their seven fourth-down chances in those games has not helped either. Head coach Dabo Swinney claimed earlier this week that his team would be 8-0 if not for them leading the nation in fumbles. Ranking in the bottom ten in the nation in Red Zone Scoring Percentage has not helped the cause either. But fumble luck as well as scoring in the Red Zone tends to regress over the long run. This remains a team that is outscoring their opponents by +7.8 Points-Per-Game this season — and their +148.1 net Yards-Per-Game mark is a reliable assessment of how they should perform moving forward. Remember, this is a team that has lost twice in overtime and that only has a 1-3 record in games decided by one scoring possession. They outplayed and outgained Florida State by a 429 to 311 yardage margin before coaching decisions and late miscues and some Seminoles’ good fortunate combined to have the Tigers somehow give that game away in overtime. So while the critics can point to Clemson’s 7-7 record in their last 14 games, this remains a very talented group — especially on defense. The Tigers still possess an elite defense that ranks fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 4.4 Yards-Per-Play. They rank sixth in the FBS by allowing only 267.5 total YPG — and they are 14th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. The offense has struggled in the Red Zone under quarterback Cade Klubnik — and some of the shine is off new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley who came over from TCU in the offseason. But the Tigers are still averaging 453.8 YPG at home which is generating 38.8 PPG. Running back Will Shipley is injured for this game — but that means more carries for second-year freshman Phil Mafah who is averaging 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry and +1.5 more yards after contact than Shipley. After playing their last two games on the road, Clemson returns home where they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 41 games with the Total set in the 42.5-46 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after playing their last two games on the road. The Tigers have not covered the point spread in three of their last four games — but they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Notre Dame goes on the road again after beating USC and the Panthers at home by 28 and 51 points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 14 games after winning two games in a row at home by 14 or more points. The Fighting Irish have forced five turnovers in two straight games — they have enjoyed +5 and +3 net turnover margins in their last two contest. But the Regression Gods are fickle when it comes to turnovers as Notre Dame will remember in their upset loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over five times in their last trip on the road. The Fighting Irish have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after posting a +3 or more net turnover margin in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after playing two games in a row with a +3 or more net turnover margin. They lost their best receiver last week when their talented tight end Mitchell Evans tore his ACL. That does not help a Fighting Irish team that has failed to cover the point spread in 26 of their last 38 games against teams not allowing more than 285 YPG.                                    

FINAL TAKE: It is not often that a Clemson team under head coach Dabo Swinney is an underdog at home in Death Valley. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 14 of their 21 home games getting more than three points in the Swinney era — and they are covering the point spread by an average of +4.6 points per game. Swinney should have no problem getting his team up for this game since playing Notre Dame is always something special — and they will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in South Bend last season by a 35-14 score despite being a 4-point road favorite. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (422) plus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (421). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (186) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (185). THE SITUATION: North Texas (3-4) has lost two of their last three games after their 35-28 loss at Tulane as a 20-point underdog on Saturday. Memphis (5-2) has won two of their last three games after a 45-21 win at UAB as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: North Texas has outgained their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game this season — but three of their four losses have been decided by one scoring possession. They should be in store for another close game this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss on the road. Additionally, the Mean Green have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread as an underdog. North Texas has covered the point spread in three straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two of their last three games. Led by quarterback  Chandler Rogers, the Mean Green have an explosive offense. The junior is completing 65% of his passes and averaging 8.0 Yards-Per-Attempt — and he has 14 touchdown passes to just one interception. The Mean Green sport a balanced offense that has rushed for 200 or more yards in five of their games while passing for 297 or more yards in five games. They have generated 475.3 Yards-Per-Game in their last three contests — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after averaging 475 or more YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 expected higher-scoring games where the Total is at 63 or higher. In their three games at home, they are scoring 37.0 Points-Per-Game. Memphis got outgained last week by -29 net yards despite beating UAB by 24 points — they benefited from a +4 net turnover margin.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). THE SITUATION: Air Force (5-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 49-10 thrashing of San Diego State as a 10.5-point favorite on September 30th. Wyoming (5-1) has won three games in a row after their 24-19 upset victory against Fresno State as a 6-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: After upsetting the undefeated Bulldogs last week despite only outgaining them by five net yards, look for the Cowboys to experience a big letdown this week. We were on this Wyoming team last week — but they have been fortunate to beat Texas Tech and Appalachian State in wild endings despite getting outgained in yardage in both games. The Cowboys are only outscoring their opponents by +2.0 net Points-Per-Game — and they are getting outgained by -49.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 games after a point spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 58 games after winning three of their last four games including a failure to cover the point spread in five of those last seven circumstances. Now this team goes on the road for just the second time this season after playing five of their first six games at War Memorial in Laramie where they enjoy an altitude edge. They may be without their top running back Harrison Waylee for this contest after he left last week’s game with a lower-body injury. While the Cowboys played Texas tough in their previous road game, this is a bad matchup for them against the Air Force spread triple option. Wyoming gave up more than 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry against New Mexico and Appalachian State generated 217 rushing yards against them. They also rank 91st in the nation in Opponent Quality Drives Allowed that measures drives of at least ten plays and 50 yards that take at least three minutes off the clock. This Air Force offense is dominant — they rank second in the nation in Points-Per-Drive and they lead the nation in Finishing Drives. Their rushing attack ranks seventh in Success Rate fueled by an experienced offensive line that ranks sixth in the FBS in Line Yards. The Falcons have won 9 of their last 13 games after a win against a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a double-digit victory against a conference foe. They have rushed for at least 287 yards in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after rushing for at least 275 yards in three straight games. The Air Force defense has also been outstanding as they have held their five opponents to just 12.2 PPG — and they rank sixth in the nation by allowing only 4.27 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons’ defense ranks 12th in the nation in Opponent Quality Drive Allowed and 18th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive.

FINAL TAKE: Air Force will have revenge on their minds after getting upset in Laramie against Wyoming by a 17-14 score as a 16.5-point favorite on September 16th last season. Laying double-digits with a methodical service academy can be dangerous — but this Falcons team has won all five of their games by double-digits with four of those victories by 18 or more points. They have been held below 39 points only once this season while scoring 39, 45, and 49 points in their last three games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring 31 or more points in two straight games. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month is with the Air Force Falcons (182) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (181). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). THE SITUATION:  Wyoming (4-1) has won two games in a row after their 35-26 win against New Mexico as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. Fresno State (5-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 27-9 win against Nevada as a 25.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s lone this season was at Texas where they were tied with the Longhorns in the fourth quarter before they pulled away late for a 21-point victory. Since that loss, the Cowboys returned home where they beat Appalachian State and then the Lobos last week. Wyoming has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after winning two straight games — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after winning two straight games at home. The question I had in my preseason deep dive for this team was whether this was the year that the Cowboys took the next step to challenge for the Mountain West Conference title. Under head coach Craig Bohl, this team has finished .500 or better in six of the last seven years with the 2020 COVID season being the lone exception when they were 2-4. Their 5-3 record in conference play last season was their best mark against MWC foes since 2016. Bohl has 15 starters back from last year’s group including ten starters on defense along with 13 of the 16 players who played at least 250 snaps — and ten of those players were freshmen or sophomores. Five starters are back on offense including fifth-year senior quarterback Andrew Peasley. The Cowboys conclude their three-game home stand tonight at War Memorial Stadium where they are very tough to beat. Wyoming has a 41-21 straight-up record at home in the last ten seasons after their 4-0 start this year which includes that win against Appalachian State as well as an upset win against Texas Tech in overtime. They are scoring 30.8 Points-Per-Game at home while holding their opponents to just 23.8 PPG. They have a nice weapon developing at running back in junior Harrison Waylee. In his three games since taking the field this season, the Northern Illinois transfer has rushed for 457 yards with an 8.6 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 points. Bohl’s team has also forced at least one turnover in each of their games — and they have won the turnover battle in their last two contests. Wyoming has then covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in two straight games. After two straight games at home, Fresno State goes back on the road for the third time this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after winning their last two games at home. The Bulldogs generated 6.95 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Wolf Pack — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after averaging 6.25 or more YPP in their last game. They averaged 7.66 YPP in their previous game against Kent State as well — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after generating 6.25 or more YPP in their last two games. Fresno State is considered the best Group of Five team by many observers after outgaining their last three opponents by +197 net Yards-Per-Game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after outgaining their last three opponents by +125 or more YPG. The main question I had for the Bulldogs in the offseason was how close could they come to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida via the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. So far so good. Keene has won the quarterback job and ranks 11th in the nation with 1474 passing yards. The Bulldogs have victories against two Power Five conference programs in Purdue and Arizona State — but both of those teams are rebuilding under first-year head coaches. This game is just the third time this season that Fresno State is not favored by 25 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: This showdown has definitely been on the mind of Bohl after his team has been shut out in two straight years against Fresno State. The Bulldogs are holding their opponents to just 282.0 total YPG this year — but the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against opponents not allowing more than 280 YPG. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Month with the Wyoming Cowboys (370) plus the points versus the Fresno State Bulldogs (369). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). THE SITUATION: Nevada (0-4) remained winless this season after their 35-24 loss at Texas State as a 17-point underdog last Saturday. Fresno State (4-0) is unbeaten this year after their 53-10 win against Kent State as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Wolf Pack have played 21 of their last 30 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss where they covered the point spread. They have also played 7 of their last 11 games Under the Total after losing three or more games in a row. My question before the season started on my deep dive on this team was whether second-year head coach Ken Wilson could raise the floor as to what to expect from his defense. The former Oregon defensive coordinator inherited a dumpster fire last year after the Wolf Pack’s previous head coach Mike Norvell took many of the players with him when he bolted for the Colorado State job. Only 22% of the production from 2021 returned to Reno last season. But the Wolf Pack did hold eight of their opponents to just 23.3 PPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play with the potent offenses from Boise State, Fresno State, Air Force, and Incarnate Word being the outliers. Eight starters are back on that side of the ball. The numbers have not improved just yet — but they have played two of the most explosive offenses in the nation in USC and Kansas. After getting outgained by 178 yards two weeks ago in their loss 31-24 loss at home to the Jayhawks, they got outgained by 220 yards last week to the Bearcats. Nevada has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -125 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after getting outgained by -175 or more yards in two straight games. The Wolf Pack have allowed 31 or more points in all four of their games — but they have played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after allowing 31 or more points in three or more games in a row. On the other side of the ball, Nevada ranks 125th in the nation by scoring only 17 PPG. Fresno State has played 30 of their last 45 games Under the Total after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs have also played 38 of their last 59 games Under the Total after winning three or more games in a row. And while they have covered the point spread in three of their four games, they have then played 29 of their last 44 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in three of their last four games. The question I had for this team before the season was whether the Bulldogs could come close to replacing the production that Jake Haener provided them at quarterback the last three seasons. Junior Logan Fife had five starts last year when Haener got injured early in the season. Head coach Jeff Tedford also brought sophomore Mike Keene from Central Florida in the transfer portal. Only four starters on the offensive line return for the entire offensive unit that ranked 51st and 52nd in the nation by scoring 30.6 PPG and averaging 402.8 YPG. Five of the top six targets in the passing game must be replaced along with running back Jordan Mims who rushed for 1370 yards with 18 rushing touchdowns last year. Keene has taken the starting job — and he is completing 67.5% of his passes with 12 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. But he has also been sacked 11 times despite the experience on the offensive line. The Bulldogs generated 7.66 Yards-Per-Play last week against the Golden Flashes — but they have played 44 of their last 67 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP. After allowing 66 combined points in their first two games, Fresno State had given up a mere 10 points in their last two contests. The Bulldogs have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in two straight games. They should continue to play well on that side of the ball with seven starters back from the tune that ranked 14th in the nation by allowing only 19.4 PPG.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. 25* College Football Total of the Month is with Under the Total in the game between the Nevada Wolf Pack (177) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (178). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-3) has lost three games in a row after their 45-28 loss at home to Kentucky as a 13-point underdog last Saturday. Missouri (4-0) is unbeaten this season after their 34-27 victory as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COMMODORES PLUS THE POINTS: Vanderbilt was only outgained by 37 net yards to the Wildcats — but they surrendered two defensive touchdowns from interceptions that made the difference in the game. This Commodores team is actually outscoring and outgaining their opponents in yardage — but they have lost the turnover battle in each of the games in their three-game losing streak. Vanderbilt has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games after suffering a -1 or worse turnover margin in three or more games in a row. Additionally, the Commodores have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a double-digit loss to an SEC rival. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing three or more games in a row. And while they have surrendered at least 36 points in their last three games, they have then covered the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after allowing 31 or more points in three straight games. The biggest question I had with this team in my preseason deep dive was whether teaching and coaching player development could overcome the hits they keep taking in the transfer portal. Head coach Clark Lea lost 12 players in the transfer window to fellow Power-5 programs in the last two seasons. But for the first time in five years, this team has continuity with both their offensive and defensive coordinator from the previous year. Missouri is unbeaten — but three of their four victories have been by seven points or less. They had the fewest Big Plays in the nation after their first two games against South Dakota and Middle Tennessee — and they beat the Blue Raiders by only four points despite being a three-touchdown favorite. The Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a game where 60 or more combined points were scored. And while they have played two straight Overs, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two or more Overs in a row. My biggest question with this team in the offseason was whether they would continue to underwhelm on offense under head coach Eli Drinkwitz. The former Appalachian State head coach was hired to install his innovative pro-style offense that featured multiple personnel groupings in a no-huddle attack. But the Tigers have not ranked higher than 59th in the FBS in scoring and 61st in total yardage in his first three seasons. Seven starters are back on offense from a unit that scored only 24.8 PPG and generated 369.8 YPG last year, ranking 85th and 81st in the nation. Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling to his new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore who comes over after two seasons as the OC at Fresno State. After two subpar games, junior quarterback Brady Cook has had two good games in a row — but now this will be Missouri’s first true road game in a hostile environment this season. The Tigers also have a showdown against LSU on deck next week — so the look-ahead issue could be a factor. They have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 52.5-56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: The Commodores will be looking to avenge a narrow 17-14 loss at Missouri last October — and Lea led his team to scrappy upset victories against Florida and Kentucky last year. Missouri had four losses against SEC competition by 18 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when laying 10.5-21 points. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month is with Vanderbilt Commodores (204) plus the points versus the Missouri Tigers (203). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). THE SITUATION: Clemson (2-1) has won two straight games after their 48-14 win against FAU as a 24.5-point favorite last Saturday. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season after their 31-29 win at Boston College as a 27.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Clemson will be circling the wagons for this contest as they look to redeem themselves from their Week One upset loss at Duke and maintain their College Football Playoff hopes alive. This game will be just the second time in the Tigers' last 60 home games at Memorial Stadium where they will be an underdog. After making the College Football Playoffs in six straight years, Clemson has lost three games in each of the last two seasons. Was this program temporarily propped up by two great coordinators while getting lucky with two generational talents at quarterback in Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence? Both offensive coordinator Tony Elliott and defensive coordinator Brent Venables left the program after the 2021-22 season to become head coaches elsewhere. Head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to point the finger at D.J. Uiagalelelei as the source of the problem when he benched him for freshman Cade Klubnik in the ACC Championship Game. Swinney brought in Garrett Riley to implement the Air Raid offense he installed as the offensive coordinator for TCU last year — and the defense remains loaded with blue-chip talent destined for the NFL. Klubnik remains a work in progress, especially with the vertical passing game — but Clemson should be able to move the ball on the ground to set up advantageous passing situations. Running backs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah have combined to generate 130.3 rushing Yards-Per-Game on 6.4 Yards-Per-Carry. Shipley continues to be one of the best running backs in the country by averaging 6.1 YPC and producing +3.6 YPC after contact. This duo has helped the Tigers rank 12th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. The Seminoles have been vulnerable with their run defense. They rank 122nd in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed after Boston College ran for 150 yards against them. Stopping the run was an issue for this team last season as well as they ranked 74th in the nation by allowing 156.4 rushing YPG — and they ranked 63rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Clemson defense has only allowed 19.7 Points-Per-Game and 246.7 YPG. While Duke quarterback Riley Leonard burned them on a 44-yard rushing touchdown in their opener, they did hold the NFL prospect to just 175 passing yards on his 38 attempts. The Tigers rank 15th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and 23rd in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed — and they rank eighth in Havoc Rate. Clemson has only allowed 366 total yards in their last two games since the loss to the Blue Devils — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 games after not allowing more than 200 total YPG in their last two contests. And while their last two games have gone Over the Total with at least 62 combined points scored in both games, they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 games after playing two games in a row where 60 or more combined points were scored — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing two straight Overs. Florida State wants to believe the glory days back for the Seminoles in the fourth season under head coach Mike Norvell after their opening week upset victory against LSU in Orlando. Last year, they led the ACC by outgaining their opponents by +164.6 net YPG — and 11 All-ACC players are back from that group that won their final six games. Depth remains an issue for this team that is still rebuilding after four straight losing seasons. While they looked great against LSU and then Southern Mississippi, they got outgained by a mediocre Eagles team last week by -107 net yards with their defense giving up 457 total yards. That contest was their first game on the road — and they stay on the road this week for perhaps their biggest game in the Norvell era. Florida State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by three points or less on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after a win on the road by three points or less against a conference rival. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 37 of their last 8 road games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games.

FINAL TAKE: Have the Seminoles turned just one corner — or all of the corners — necessary to return to College Football Playoff contention? They have lost seven straight games to the Tigers — and the last time they beat them in Memorial Stadium was 2013. Now they are favored which is a rare motivational opportunity for Dabo Swinney in his sixteenth year running the program — and Clemson has covered the point spread in 11 of the 15 home games as an underdog against a ranked opponent under his leadership. 25* CFB ACC Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (336) plus the points versus the Florida State Seminoles (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). THE SITUATION: Ohio (2-1) enters this game coming off a 17-10 upset victory at Florida Atlantic as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday. Iowa State (1-1) comes off a 20-13 loss to Iowa as a 3.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BOBCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Iowa State’s program was rocked by its sports gambling scandal last month which has removed several players on the roster including starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers and starting Jirehl Brock (who left the team amidst the allegations). Head coach Matt Campbell has been forced to make adjustments on the fly given these unusual circumstances. Second-year freshman quarterback Rocco Becht has inherited the offense but is completing only 58% of his passes while passing for only 316 yards in his two starts. Sophomore Cartevious Norton has become the lead running back but is only generating 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry with 108 rushing yards in his two games. The Cyclones are averaging only 3.8 YPC as a team. Iowa State has been a reliable underdog in Campbell’s eight years at the helm of this program — but they have not met expectations when placed in the role as the favorite. Iowa State has faced to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road when favored. This is the Cyclones' first road game in a hostile environment this season — and it is a sandwich game situation coming off their rivalry game with the Hawkeyes before their Big 12 opener against Oklahoma State next week. Their one turnover last week was their lone giveaway of the season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Campbell was hoping to have 15 starters back from last year’s team that underachieved with a 4-8 record (despite outgaining their opponents by +84 net Yards-Per-Game) — but the gambling scandal has changed expectations. The overall athleticism on the roster was already a question before losing their starting quarterback and running back. Red zone efficiency and giveaways held them back last season — and that is not a good sign in their first road game of this campaign. The books expect a lower-scoring game with the Total set in the low-40s. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. Now here comes an Ohio team with 15 starters back from their 10-4 squad that bear Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl by a 30-27 score. If not for fifth-year senior Kurtis Rourke getting injured in their opening week game at San Diego State, the Bobcats could be undefeated. Instead, they lost on the road against the Aztecs by a 20-13 score as a 2-point underdog. Rourke missed their second game which they still won by a 27-10 score against Long Island. The reigning Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year returned last week and completed 18 of 29 passes for 203 yards in leading Ohio to the upset road win at FAU. Head coach Tim Albin to building a culture with this program — and it starts on the defensive side of the ball. After the Bobcats gave up 561 Yards-Per-Game in their first six games last year, they held their final seven regular season opponents to 331 YPG. This improved defensive play has carried over as they are only giving up 233 YPG — and their three opponents have been held to -162 YPG below their season averages. While some football teams experience an emotional letdown after an upset win, these triumphs tend to provide jolts of energy and confidence to the Ohio players as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 home games after an upset victory. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after winning two games in a row. They return home where they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: With their loss to Iowa last week, Iowa State has now lost 11 of their last 12 games decided by one scoring possession. The Regression Gods may have decided this program gets what they deserve given these gambling revelations. Campbell may have inadvertently fostered a losing culture. The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and the Bobcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Ohio Bobcats (126) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (125). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-0) has opened the season undefeated after a 13-3 victory against Sam Houston State in Houston’s NRG Stadium as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Utah State (1-1) won their first game of the season with a 78-28 win against Idaho State as a 23.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: Air Force held a feisty Sam Houston State team to just 80 total yards of offense last week with the Bearkats averaging only 1.82 Yards-Per-Play. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their previous opponent to 3.25 or fewer YPP. Air Force led the nation last season by allowing only 254.4 Yards-Per-Game — and they return eight starters from that group along with nine of the 13 players that played at least 250 snaps last season. They held their opponents to -94 YPG below their season average. Even more accolades for the defense under head coach Troy Calhoun: they ranked ninth in the nation in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed; they ranked third in the FBS in third-down defense while holding their last two opponents, San Diego State and Baylor, to going 0-for-21; they ranked fourth in the FBS with opponents only scoring touchdowns in 43% of their trips inside the red zone. So far this season, they rank tenth in the FBS in Opponent Success Rate Allowed. They held Robert Morris to just 165 yards in their opening game — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Air Force has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games when playing with six or fewer days of rest. The Falcons return 13 starters — a high number for a service academy program — from their team that finished 10-3 after beating Baylor in the Armed Forces Bowl by a 30-15 score. While they were only 5-3 in conference play, they outgained their Mountain West Conference opponents by +106 net YPG. Senior quarterback Zac Larrier has been solid operating the spread option rushing attack — he ran for 65 yards last week while Air Force held the ball for 36:38 minutes. While he does not throw the ball often, this offense does lead the nation in Explosiveness in the Passing attack when they do chuck it. The Falcons return home where they have a 73-24 record under Calhoun — and they have a 43-10 record there since 2014. Air Force has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games at home with the Total set in the 42.5-49 point range. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Utah State rebounded from their 24-14 loss at Iowa by dominating an FCS program — but Idaho State did generate 424 total yards against them. The Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 27 games after a game where 80 or more combined points were scored. They did rush for 380 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. This team returns only nine starters from the group that finished 6-7 last year — and that group benefited from winning all four of their games decided by one score possession. They got outgained in Mountain West Conference play despite a 5-3 conference record in the second season under head coach Blake Anderson. His teams going back to Arkansas State having failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win at home by four or more touchdowns. And while the Aggies gained 591 yards last week, Anderson’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after generating 575 or more yards in their last game. Utah State ranks only 87th in the FBS in Opponent Defensive Success Rate Allowed while ranking 66th in Opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed. When that mediocrity gets combined with the Aggies' fast pace on offense — they rank 20th in fewest seconds per play this season, their defense may get gassed when the offense goes three-and-out in a quick series which then puts their defense back on the field.

FINAL TAKE: Anderson has pulled off two straight upsets against the Air Force in his two previous seasons at Utah State. After the Aggies gave up 437 rushing yards in a 49-45 barn-burner two years ago, they held the Falcons to 265 rushing yards on 54 carries last year — a 4.91 Yards-Per-Carry average as opposed to the 6.94 YPC they gave up in 2021. But Anderson had extra days to prepare for last year’s contest after playing BYU on a Thursday night the previous week. Now Utah State travels to Falcon Stadium on a short week with Calhoun certainly playing up the consecutive upset losses to this opponent. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Air Force (114) minus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). THE SITUATION: Texas Tech (0-1) looks to rebound from their 35-33 upset loss in double-overtime at Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (1-0) began their season with an 81-7 victory against Portland State as a 48-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RED RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: A 78-minute delay to the start of the game in Laramie against the Cowboys did not help Texas Tech’s cause last week. The Red Raiders got inside Wyoming’s 40-yard line seven times in that game but only scored 20 points from those drives. They missed three field goals and outgained the Cowboys in yardage by a 433-351 margin but could not survive the second overtime. Is head coach Joey McGuire leading this program in the right direction — or was their 8-5 record last season simply the by-product of some overdue but temporary good fortune? The Red Raiders won three games in overtime to help them sweep all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. After five straight losing seasons under head coaches Kliff Kingsbury and then Matt Wells, this program has had winning seasons in two straight years. McGuire has 17 starters and 15 sixth-year super seniors back from last year’s team that beat Ole Miss in the Texas Bowl by a 42-25 score. But can the talent level match the high-end rosters in the Big 12 conference? Getting a full season out of the often-injured quarterback Tyler Slough would go a long way. The fifth-year senior was 5-0 as a starter last year before missing the final four games due to injury. He has an 8-2 record as a starter for the Red Raiders after last week’s loss — but he did complete 31 of 47 passes for 338 yards with three touchdown passes. And the Texas Tech defense played well enough after holding Wyoming to just 4.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Red Raiders have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. They have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a loss on the road. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread loss. They return home to Jones AT&T Stadium where they hold a big edge in front of their loud fans. They were 6-1 at home last year while covering the point spread in 5 of those games. They have also covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 home games in the first two weeks of the season. Oregon comes off a laugher against an FBS opponent — but the question remains: How close can head coach Dan Lanning get the Ducks’ defense to perform like his Georgia teams when he was their defensive coordinator from 2019-21? In his first year in Eugene, his defense ranked 74th and 70th in the FBS by allowing 27.4 PPG and 381.2 YPG. The deeper metrics were even more unkind with the Ducks’ defense ranking 99th in Opponent Success Rate Allowed and 108th in Opponent Finishing Drives Allowed. The pass rush generated only 18 sacks which was the lowest in school history. Their pass defense ranked 101st in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 256.4 passing YPG. There was a large gap between the physicality of the Ducks’ defense last year and what Lanning’s Georgia defenses brought to the table. But Oregon still outgained their Pac-12 opponents by +136 net YPG due to a dynamic offense that ranked 10th and 6th in the nation by scoring 38.8 PPG and generating 500.5 YPG. Fifth-year senior QB Bo Nix completed 71.9% of his passes while limiting his mistakes with only seven interceptions and taking just five sacks. But Nix only accrued 16 passes that were designed as “Big Time” throws last season in a dink-and-dunk passing game. Only 29% of Oregon’s passes last season were of more than ten air-yards last year — and that is a big reason why they ranked 128th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness.

FINAL TAKE: Oregon got into many shootouts last year — but their lack of explosiveness makes blowout victories unlikely especially when playing away from Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 19 road games when laying 3.5 to 7 points — and Shough will have a chip on his shoulder to face his former team before transferring to Lubbock. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Texas Tech Red Raiders (360) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (359). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). THE SITUATION: Massachusetts (0-0) returns 15 starters from its team that finished 1-11 last season. New Mexico State (0-0) has 13 starters returning from their team that finished 7-6 after beating Bowling Green in the Quick Lane Bowl by a 24-19 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Aggies return nine starters on offense from a group that ranked 108th in the FBS by generating 330.6 total Yards-Per-Game — and head coach Jerry Kill’s team is not going to significantly increase those numbers even if they improve their efficiency since he prefers a run-first ball control attack. New Mexico State scored only 25.5. Points-Per-Game last season in his first year as head coach. The Aggies did win seven of their last nine games — including their victory against the Falcons in the bowl game — with the surge coinciding with Kill turning to Diego Pavia at quarterback. But while they scored at least 45 points in four of those wins, those were against some weak opponents. New Mexico State scored 45 points against a Hawai’i team undergoing a massive rebuild who were one of the worst defensive teams in the FBS. They put up 49 points against a shellshocked Liberty reeling internally from the rumors that their head coach Hugh Freeze was leaving the program for Auburn. They then scored 51 points against FCS-opponent Lamar and then 65 points against Valparaiso who was a late-season replacement for San Jose State who canceled their game after the tragic death of one of their teammates. The Aggies scored less than 25 points in their three other victories — including a 23-13 victory against this UMass team. They then failed to score more than 14 points in their six losses. Pavia is a gamer — but the former junior college transfer completed only 53.2% of his passes last season. New Mexico State’s ball control offense did help their defense hold their opponents to just 336.6 total YPG, ranking 29th in the nation. Five starters return to that unit that was bolstered by the addition of Power-Five transfers in nose tackle Dion Wilson, Jr. from Arizona and linebacker Jamari Buddin from Minnesota. The Aggies return two starters — and add cornerback Keynote Wilson as a transfer from Wyoming  — to a secondary that ranked 16th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 186.8 passing YPG. Kill’s teams have played 31 of their last 52 games Under the Total when playing at home in his coaching career — and his teams have played 8 of their last 12 home games Under the Total as a favorite of up to seven points. UMass will be debuting former Clemson blue-chipper Taison Phommochanh at quarterback — but he was not able to take the starting job at Georgia Tech either so this ability to transform the Minutemen offense that ranked 130th in the nation by averaging only 12.5 PPG remains in doubt. UMass scored less than 14 points in nine of their 12 games last season. Second-year head coach Don Brown will have no plans to open up the offense anyway — his formula for success is also ball control to help his defense. The former defensive coordinator at Michigan under Jim Harbaugh had his team rank 16th in the nation time of possession last season as the head coach for this program. The Minutemen return eight starters — and 13 of their 18 who played at least 200 snaps — from a defense that ranked 54th in the nation by holding their opponents to 369.6 total YPG. Brown inherited a defense that ranked 125th in the nation by allowing 485.0 total YPG. After their opponents generated +124 YPG above their season average two years ago, Brown was able to get that mark down to just +14 YPG above their offensive YPG average. Brown and defensive coordinator Keith Dudzinski’s unit ranked 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just a 30.9% conversion rate on third down. UMass also ranked ninth in the FBS by allowing only 175.2 passing YPG — a testament to Brown’s touch as he handles the secondary coaching to infuse his man-to-man cover principles. Solid man-to-man coverage allowed the Minutemen to rank fifth in the nation in blitz rate per dropback. UMass played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total as an underdog. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Aggies won last year’s game on the road by a 23-13 score at the Minutemen’s McGuirk Alumni Stadium — they gained only 334 total yards but held UMass to just 259 total yards. Both of these coaching staffs will have dedicated plenty of coaching hours to scheme against these offensive attacks that lack originality. Kill’s teams have played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the first two weeks of the season — and New Mexico State played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Minutemen played 5 of their 7 games in the first half of the season Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Massachusetts Minutemen (301) and the New Mexico State Aggies (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Horned Frogs have been a great story all season — and they continued their Cinderella run last week with an improbable victory against the Wolverines. But cooler heads need to prevail with how improbable this achievement was — as they needed help from the refs, along with arrogant play-calling from the Michigan coaching staff, and plenty of mistakes from the Wolverines’ players. TCU got outgained by -40 yards with their defense giving up 528 total yards. On the first drive of the game, Michigan should have taken the three points when it was 4th down on the Horned Frogs' 2-yard line. Instead, they went for it, which is fine enough, but rather than running behind their two-time reigning Joe Moore award-winning top offensive line, they called some double-reverse Philly special disaster that was flagged by their calling a timeout before the play — as if winning the game was already a lock and they wanted to load up the game tape for their opponent in the national championship. The defensive stop gave the underdogs momentum — and that was later bolstered when the Horned Frogs returned the first of two interceptions for touchdowns. Michigan failed to score touchdowns on three drives that got inside the TCU 3-yard line — they settled for only three points in those drives. The referees played a role in one of those red zone failures by a very sketchy overturn in a 50-yard touchdown pass (after these refs incorrectly spotted the previous play five yards farther back against the Wolverines than it should have been). The Wolverines then muffed the handoff to the linebacker-converted running back. From J.J. McCarthy’s two pick-sixes in this game and the two failures to score points at the TCU two-yard line, that represented a likely 27-point swing for the Horned Frogs (who missed a two-point conversion on the second interception they returned for a touchdown) — and Michigan still had the ball with a chance to win the game (before the refs swallowed their whistles after a textbook targeting violation which would have been called every time if not in the last minute of the game). The Wolverines exposed the TCU defense in the second half when they finally unleashed McCarthy to move the ball with his legs. Michigan scored 35 points in a 16 minute-span beginning with their field goal to end the 3rd quarter. But they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. As it is, TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 40 or more points in their last game. And while McCarthy threw for 343 yards against them, the Horned Frogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing 280 or more yards in their last contest. This remains a team that has won six of their seven games decided by one-scoring possession with five second-half comebacks along the way. Away from home, TCU is only outgaining their opponents by +12.7 Yards-Per-Game while giving up 428.6 YPG. The Horned Frogs' defense is far from elite — they have given up 31 or more points six times and 28 or more points eight times (which is more than half their games). Immediately after the game, there was a narrative that their 3-3-5 defense held up against the stout Michigan offensive line. Really? The Wolverines ran the ball 40 times for 186 yards (4.65 YPC) even with their questionable play-calling. Only a Big 12 team can be praised for the play of their defense after giving up 45 points and 528 total yards. And now here comes Georgia looking to defend their national championship from last year after demonstrating their grit and tenacity to beat a Buckeyes team with nothing to lose after losing their big game against Michigan which seemed to remove them from the playoffs at the time. Georgia has covered the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a point spread loss including nine of these last eleven circumstances. They have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a victory where they did not cover the point spread as the favorite. The Bulldogs outgained Ohio State by +66 net yards after generating 533 total yards against them — and they have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. While their elite defense gets most of the credit, the Georgia offense has scored at least 37 points in three straight games and four of their last five after scoring 37 or more points in three straight games. And while the Bulldogs have allowed 348 passing yards, they have then covered the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after allowing 325 or more passing yards. Georgia has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Despite winning last week, are the Horned Frogs still a bit satisfied to just be in this position? I felt that way last week — and while they pulled off the upset, they needed lots of help. In head coach Sonny Dykes first year with the program after they were 5-7 last year, there is simply a huge talent disparity in this game. Can TCU pull off another improbable effort? This is the 5th time in the last three seasons where they are an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of those 4 games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games played on a neutral field. Georgia is loaded with future NFL talent that has won 28 of their last 29 games in the last two seasons. They have a huge edge in big-game experience — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including these last seven circumstances. Look for the Bulldogs to seize a lead, impose their will, and overwhelm the Horned Frogs for the win and cover. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (288) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (287). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). THE SITUATION: TCU (13-1) advanced to this championship game with their 51-45 upset victory against Michigan as a 9-point underdog on Saturday. Georgia (14-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-41 victory against Ohio State as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday. This game is being played on a neutral field at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Horned Frogs scored 51 points against Michigan — but two of their touchdowns came from defensive interceptions returned for scores. TCU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Even when the Wolverines began their furious comeback in the second half, they continued to give up big plays on defense with defensive coordinator Jesse Minter deploying aggressive zero blitz schemes to get after Max Duggan who was able to counter with big plays. Quentin Johnson scored a critical touchdown in the 3rd quarter by inducing a bad missed tackle before going to the races against the Wolverines' defense that did not have a safety back to help in an emergency like this. The Georgia coaching staff will not make these arrogant mistakes — and they will discover that Duggan and the Horned Frogs' offense was mostly being contained, save for these big plays. Granted, TCU has lived off its explosiveness all season — but that is more reason for the Bulldogs to not be arrogant and focus their energies on taking these potential big plays away from the Horned Frogs. TCU ran the ball 41 times for 263 yards which was the best rushing effort in their last ten games. But now they face a Georgia defense that went into the playoffs holding their opponents to just 2.9 rushing Yards-Per-Carry with just five rushing touchdowns. To compound matters, the Horned Frogs’ top running back Kendre Miller is questionable with an injury that he suffered last week. What happens to the TCU offense if they struggle to run the ball? What happens if they have to start playing from behind rather than benefitting from two defensive touchdowns? Credit goes to the Horned Frogs coaching staff — and Duggan who is a wily veteran quarterback who can burn opposing defense with his legs — as they scored touchdowns on every one of their red zone trips (despite ranking 80th in Red Zone Efficiency going into that game) and every one of their goal-to-go plays. But can they continue to do that against this Georgia defense? Duggan only completed 14 of his 29 passes for 225 yards — and he threw two interceptions. The Horned Frogs need to tighten things up on defense after allowing 528 yards to the Wolverines. TCU has played 5 straight Unders after allowing 40 or more points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after giving up 450 or more yards in their last contest. Georgia generated 533 yards against the Buckeyes last week — but they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last game. The Bulldogs have scored at least 37 points in three straight games — and they have played all three of those games Over the Total. But Georgia has played 9 of their last 10 games on the road Under the Total after playing three or more Overs in a row. The Bulldogs may be without one of their key weapons on offense with 6’7 tight end Darnell Washington questionable with an ankle injury he suffered last week. Washington joins tight end  Brock Bowers to form the foundation of Georgia’s smash-mouth spread offensive scheme that leans on these tight ends and their running backs as opposed to wide receivers — so his absence will throw a monkey wrench in the Bulldogs' offensive identity.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has allowed their last two opponents to score 71 combined points after their first 12 opponents only score 136 combined points against them. I expect head coach Kirby Smart to slow this game down with the expectation that his defense remains the best unit in this game and the Bulldogs’ experience will lead them to a victory (and Smart’s priority is winning the game, not covering the point spread). Georgia has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 straight Unders in January. 25* CFB Non-Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the TCU Horned Frogs (287) and the Georgia Bulldogs (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Ohio State (11-1) lost their first game of the season in a 45-23 upset loss against Michigan as a 9-point favorite on November 26th. Georgia (13-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 50-30 win against LSU as a 17-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 3rd. This game is being played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes allowed only 15.6 Points-Per-Game and 5.2 Yards-Per-Play in their first ten games — but their last two contests against Maryland and then the Wolverines saw them give up 37.5 PPG and 7.3 YPP. The extended break since the loss to Michigan should help the Ohio State defense get back to full health. Injuries slowed down linebacker Tommy Eichenberger, defensive backs Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke, and defensive tackle Michael Hall, Jr. They will be in better condition tonight. The Buckeyes were a defense that ranked 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 27th in Yards-Per-Attempt allowed in the passing game. Their pass defense tightened to hold their opponents to just 5.5 YPG when placing seven or more defenders in the box — so the commitment to stop the run should not burn them with big plays in the passing game tonight as it did against the Wolverines. Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has had over a month to make corrections from the mistakes against Michigan. As it is, the Buckeyes have played 8 straight Unders after getting blown out by 21 or more points in their last contest. They have also played 11 of their last 17 games Under the Total after an upset loss to a Big Ten opponent — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a double-digit upset loss when favored by six or more points. I am a bit worried about quarterback C.J. Stroud facing this stout Bulldogs’ defense. While Stroud leads the Ohio State attack when playing the role of a flat track bully, the Buckeyes’ offense stalled too often against their most challenging three opponents. Against Michigan, Ohio State only scored a field goal in the final 33 minutes. The Buckeyes had scored only 16 points with under ten minutes to go against Penn State before the floodgates opened in that game. Ohio State scored just 21 points and gained less than 400 total yards in their opening game against Notre Dame. Stroud seems reluctant to use his legs to gain yards — negating a skill that has become so valuable in these pass-heavy attacks. Stroud also keys-in too much on his first read while lacking advanced skills to move to a second (or third) option — and that is how the Wolverines burned him after sandbagging that defensive tactic. Now Stroud and a Buckeyes offense that will play without injured running back TreVeyon Henderson faces a stiffer test against Georgia — who has a healthy Jalen Carter at defensive tackle after he has missed time with injuries. While the Bulldogs’ defense was not as historic as last year’s group, they still held their opponents to just 12.8 PPG and 292.2 Yards-Per-Game. Georgia has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread to cover as a double-digit favorite. The Bulldogs generated 529 yards against LSU while averaging 7.56 Yards-Per-Play — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after averaging 6.75 or more YPP in their last game. Additionally, they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after scoring 42 or more points in their last contest. And while Georgia has scored 87 combined points in their last two games, they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Moving forward, the Bulldogs have played 5 straight Unders in bowl games — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 10-4-2 in Georgia’s last 16 games played on a neutral field — and the Bulldogs have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. Ohio State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 points — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in December. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the College Football Playoff Semifinals between the Ohio State Buckeyes (273) and the Georgia Bulldogs (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268) in the Orange Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (39-10) won for the third time in their last four games in their 39-10 victory against North Carolina as a 7-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 3rd. Tennessee (10-2) has won two of their last three games after their 56-0 win against Vanderbilt as a 14-point favorite on November 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson’s season was jumpstarted against the Tar Heels when head coach Dabo Swinney benched junior D.J. Uigalelei for freshman phenom Cade Klubnik in the first half of that game. Klubnik completed 20 of his 24 passes for 279 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions to lead the Tigers to the 29-point win. Klubnik was considered by many to be the top quarterback in the 2022 class — and it was clear his presence on the field energized his teammates. Now this Clemson team looks to build momentum for a potential national championship run next year. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games on the road after a win by 21 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 49 games on the road after a win by 28 or more points. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games on the road after a point-spread win. And after Clemson passed for 317 yards overall against the Tar Heels, they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Swinney has to adjust two significant opt-outs with defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Trenton Simpson leaving the team to prepare for the NFL draft. But star defensive tackle Bryan Bresee is playing in this game and the players entering the transfer portal are limited. The Tigers remain loaded with talent on defense after holding their opponents to 20.1 Points-Per-Game this season. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Tennessee’s losses at this point of the season are much more significant. Their top two wide receivers, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman have opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. Their top linebacker Jeremy Banks has also opted out. Offensive coordinator Alex Golesh left the program to become the head coach at South Florida. But the biggest loss has been the season-ending injury to quarterback Hendon Hooker who has since left the team for the NFL draft. Senior Joe Milton will be their quarterback tonight after he completed only 11 of 21 passes for just 147 yards against the Commodores. Milton does not operate the Volunteers' offense like Hooker was able to do. He originally played at Michigan where he was unable to hold on to the starting quarterback job in 2020 — the Wolverines’ 2-4 season. After losing the starting job, he transferred to Tennessee where he was the presumed starter in head coach Josh Heupel’s first season. But he faltered and was quickly usurped by Hooker who took the quarterback gig and ran with it the last two seasons. Hilton has a strong arm — but his accuracy remains a problem and he is not as mobile as Hooker. The Volunteers relied on their running game against the Volunteers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after failing to pass for at least 170 yards in their last game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by three or more touchdowns. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 28 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Volunteers’ defense is a weak link — especially in the passing game where they ranked 94th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed and gave up 450 or more passing yards in three games. They have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 16 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 14 bowl games under Swinney. 25* College Football Game of the Month is with the Clemson Tigers (267) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252) in the Texas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Mississippi (8-4) has lost three straight games after their 24-22 upset loss to Mississippi State as a 2.5-point favorite on November 24th. Texas Tech (7-5) has won three games in a row after their 51-48 upset victory in overtime against Oklahoma as a 1.5-point underdog on November 26th. This game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: For those that question the motivation Ole Miss has for this game, then they don’t appreciate what Lane Kiffin is trying to do with this football program. Kiffin proclaimed himself the “portal king” after bringing in 15 transfer players last year — with many of them highly recruited out of high school. Kiffin firmly believes the paradigm has changed. Gone are the days of bringing in huge freshmen classes of players who will stay in the program for five years. Instead, high-profile coaches like Kiffin can recruit players from other schools and offer them high-profile jobs that represent either an upgrade from their current situation or more playing time from where they are at. Given that, bowl games like this — especially in prime time — are essential recruiting opportunities to sell the program. Now that the black cloud regarding the rumors of him taking the Auburn job that continued past kick-off in the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State last month, Kiffin and his new contract extension are all-in with this program. It starts by ending the season on a positive note. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games on the road after an upset loss to a conference rival as a home favorite. And while Ole Miss has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 straight games after not covering the point spread in two straight games. Kiffin’s roster is close to fully intact with no players opting out for the NFL draft. Three players entered the transfer portal including a cornerback in the two deep — but the departing defensive end only had 31 snaps and backup quarterback Luke Altmyer is clearly behind sophomore Jaxson Dart. The former USC transfer completed 63% of his passes while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He is complemented by freshman phenom running back Quinshon Judkins who has rushed for 439 yards with a 6.18 Yards-Per-Carry despite the Rebels losing those games — all to bowl teams in Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi State, by the way. Ole Miss outscored their opponents by +10.0 Points-Per-Game and outgained them by +109.5 net Yards-Per-Game. In their five road games, the Rebels outscored their opponents by +5.8 PG and outgained them by +135.0 net YPG. Led by Judkins and Dart who averaged 4.7 Yards-Per-Carry in his 117 rushing attempts, Ole Miss was third in the nation by averaging 262 rushing YPG. They should have plenty of success running against this Red Raiders defense that ranks 90th in the FBS by allowing 166 rushing YPG. The Texas Tech defense is the weak link in this game — they rank 97th in the nation by allowing 29.5 PPG. In their last three games, the Red Raiders are allowing 540.0 YPG. This team comes into this bowl game riding high with two straight upsets against Iowa State and then the Sooners. But Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after an upset win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 35 games after pulling off an upset against a Big 12 rival including four of these last five circumstances. Additionally, the Red Raiders are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after a straight-up victory — and they are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games after a point-spread win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after scoring 37 or more points in their last game. This team overachieved in the first season under head coach Joey McGuire — they have won all four of their games decided by one scoring possession. But this group is just 1-4 on the road with them getting outscored by -7.6 PPG. This Texas Tech is also without their All-American defensive end Tyree Wilson who has been out with an injury since November. The Red Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in December.

FINAL TAKE: McGuire was an assistant head coach for Baylor last year after being their tight ends coach for years — but his previous experience was as a long-time high school coach in Texas so this is his first bowl game as a head coach. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in the SEC. Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams outside the SEC — and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (251) minus the points versus the Texas Tech Red Raiders (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.    

At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240) in the First Responder Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah State (6-6) had their three-game winning streak snapped in a 42-23 loss at Boise State as a 16.5-point underdog on November 25th. Memphis (6-6) had their two-game winning streak snapped in a 34-31 loss at SMU as a 4-point underdog to end their regular season. This game is being played at Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: SMU lost all four of their games decided by one possession. After settling for a 6-6 mark last year with 13 starters back from that squad, expectations were higher for this team rather than settling for another 6-6 campaign and a bowl date with a 6-6 team from the Mountain West Conference. As it is, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a loss by three points or less. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. Memphis has a dynamic offense led by sophomore quarterback Seth Henigan who completed 27 of 44 passes for 287 yards in the loss to the Mustangs. But the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. Henigan will be challenged by a Utah State defense that ranks 35th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. But the bigger problem for Memphis is their defense as they allow 27.3 Points-Per-Game — and in their five games on the road, they allowed their opponents to generate 420.6 total Yards-Per-Game which resulted in 36.2 PPG. The Tigers have a 25-4 record at home at Liberty Bowl Memorial since 2017 — but they were just 1-4 on the road this season. Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 road games after the first month of the season under head coach Ryan Silverfield. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. For Utah State, contrary to published reports, senior running back Calvin Tyler, Jr. is not opting-out for this game to prepare for the NFL draft. Said Tyler about these rumors, he is “definitely playing.” He rushed for 1043 yards this season. He is joined by junior quarterback Cooper Legas who may be labeled a third-stringer by some given the talent that second-year head coach Blake Anderson brought in through the transfer portal, but Legas was the Most Valuable Player in last year’s Louisiana Bowl when he led the Aggies to a 24-13 victory against Oregon State. He completed 23 of 40 passes for 306 yards and added 51 rushing yards against the stout Boise State defense in Utah State’s last game. The Aggies have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for 280 or more yards in their last game. They should have success against this Memphis defense that ranks 104th in the FBS in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and the Tigers also rank 126th in the nation in Points Allowed from opponent trips inside their 40-yard line. After a 1-4 start which included losses at Alabama and BYU (along with bad losses to Weber State and UNLV), Utah State won five of their last seven games. The Aggies have then covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after winning four or five of their last six games — and they have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. Anderson’s teams at Utah State and in his previous stint at Arkansas State have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a loss to a conference rival by double-digits. Anderson’s Utah State teams have covered the point spread in 9 of their 13 games in the second half of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Memphis has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games in December — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (239) plus the points versus the Memphis Tigers (240). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232) in the Gasparilla Bowl. THE SITUATION: Wake Forest (7-5) has lost four of their last five games after their 34-31 upset loss at Duke as a 3-point favorite on November 26th. Missouri (6-6) has won two in a row and four of their last six after a 29-27 upset victory as a 3-point underdog on November 25th. This game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers are a lower-scoring team that averages only 25.5 Points-Per-Game. They did not score more than 24 points eight times — and in their five games away from home, they scored only 18.0 PPG while averaging just 336.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Quarterback Brady Cook was up-and-down in his sophomore season — and he will be without his top wide receiver target Dominic Lovett who had 56 catches for 846 receiving yards as he is in the transfer portal. Missouri ran for 226 yards in their upset win against the Razorbacks en route to 468 total yards. The Tigers have played 5 straight Unders after rushing for 200 or more yards — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Under is also 35-16-2 in their last 53 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight Unders after a point spread victory. Furthermore, Missouri has played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after an upset win — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after an upset win at home. The Tigers are dealing with some opt-outs on their defense — while they were 3rd in the SEC with 33 sacks, they are losing 17 of those sacks from three players making themselves available for the NFL draft. This remains a team that held their opponents to 337.9 total YPG this year. The offense perked up in their final three games when head coach Eli Drinkwitz relinquished the play-calling duties to quarterbacks coach Bush Hamdan — but Hamdan has left to take over the offensive coordinator gig at Boise State which means Drinkwitz will be back to calling plays again. A problem for this Tigers' offense was the play of their offensive line as they allowed 91 tackles for loss, ranking 114th in the nation. Missouri was 112th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed — and the Demon Deacons ranked 31st in the nation in Havoc Rate on defense. The Tigers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog. Wake Forest has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss. And while they have covered the point spread just once in their last five games, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after covering the point spread once in their last three games. Furthermore, the Demon Deacons gained 453 yards against the Blue Devils in their last game — but they surrendered 507 total yards. Wake Forest has then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after gaining 450 or more yards in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing 450 or more yards. This will be the last game in a Deacons uniform for 5th-year quarterback Sam Hartman who will either enter the NFL draft or transfer to another program. He has led Wake Forest to score at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring 31 or more points in three straight games. All three of those games saw 65 or more combined points scored — but they have then played 4 straight Unders after playing three or more in a row with 60 or more combined points scored. The defense struggled in those three games without injured safety Malik Mustapha — but he is expected back for this game. The Demon Deacons' offense was more dynamic at home where they averaged 41.9 PPG while scoring at least 34 in each game. But Wake Forest’s four-lowest scoring efforts this year were on the road — including two games where they only scored 21 points. They averaged 29.8 PPG in their five road games — and their opponents' 388.0 YPG mark was -23.9 YPG lower than their season average, so their defense was a bit more effective. The Demon Deacons have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after the first month of the season.

FINAL TAKE: Wake Forest has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and Missouri has played 4 straight Unders on a neutral field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (231) and the Missouri Tigers (232). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (321) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (322) in the ACC Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-2)  had their two-game winning streak end in a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina as a 14-point favorite last Saturday. North Carolina (9-3) has lost two straight games after getting upset for the second-straight time in a 30-27 loss to North Carolina State in overtime as a 6.5-point favorite on Friday. This game is being played on a neutral field at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have scored 30 or more points in three straight games and ten of their 13 contests this season. But their defense let them down last week against the Gamecocks as they surrendered 414 total yards. Clemson has given up 28 or more points in four of their games this season — they can be exposed. They have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. And while they did go into halftime with a 23-14 lead, they have then played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after scoring at least 20 points in the first half of their last game. Running back Will Shipley only ran the ball 15 times last week despite averaging 8.8 Yards-Per-Carry — expect a heavy load from Shipley tonight against this Tar Heels defense that allows 170 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Shipley averages 5.8 YPC — and he has 35 gains of 10 or more yards this season. Quarterback D.J. Uigalelei has been a disappointment this year — but he is at his most dangerous against defenses like North Carolina that give up big plays. Uigalelei has passes classified as Big Throws 22 times this season with 20 or more air yards — and the Tar Heels rank 109th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. Wake Forest’s Sam Hartmann averaged 10.3 Yards-Per-Attempt against North Carolina earlier this year. Clemson running the football and then dropping long passes should generate plenty of points — they rank 19th in Rush Success Rate and 26th in Line Yards. They gained 237 rushing yards on the ground last week — and they have played 4 straight Overs the Total after rushing for 200 or more yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have played two straight Overs, they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after playing two straight Overs. Clemson has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. The Tigers’ defense is vulnerable to giving up big plays — they rank 63rd in Explosiveness Allowed. North Carolina averages 4.75 Points-Per-Drive inside the opponent's 40-yard line which is the 4th-best mark in the nation. Quarterback Drake Maye ranks 4th in the country by Pro Football Focus with a passing grade of 91.1. On passes of 10 or more air yards, Maye has 40 passes classified as “Big Time” — and his PFF passing grade rises to 92. He leads an offense that has scored 31 or more points in nine of their 12 games. And in their six games away from home, the Tar Heels score 38.3 Points-Per-Game and generate 513.7 Yards-Per-Game. But this porous North Carolina defense gives up 35.0 PPG and 510.0 YPG in those six road games. They have given up at least 21 points in all but one of their games. The Tar Heels have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after an upset loss to a conference rival — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss to an ACC rival by seven points or less. Furthermore, North Carolina has played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. Back to that defense — the Tar Heels rank 112th in the nation by allowing their opponents to average 6.0 Yards-Per-Play. They rank 120th in Opponent Success Rate. They have played 21 of their last 29 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in December.

FINAL TAKE: Don’t expect many field goals in this game — Clemson ranks 24th in the nation Finishing Drive Rate while North Carolina ranks 4th in that metric (and this dynamic becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy since both coaches know this). The Tigers have played 6 straight Overs on a neutral field with the Total set at 63 or higher — and North Carolina has played 4 straight Overs on a neutral field. 25* CFB ACC Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (321) and the North Carolina Tar Heels (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316) in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Fresno State (8-4) has won seven games in a row after their 30-0 win against Wyoming as a 14-point favorite last Friday. Boise State (9-3) has won three in a row — and seven of their last eight — after their 42-23 victory against Utah State as a 16.5-point favorite on Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State’s numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt given the midseason injury to senior quarterback Jake Haener. The gunslinger will be one of the top quarterbacks taken in the NFL draft this spring. In the seven games he finished this year, he averaged 330.7 passing Yards-Per-Game. For the year, he completed 73.5% of his passes with 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. Even without Haener under center all season, the Bulldogs ranked 15th in the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they were top 25 in both Rush Success Rate and Pass Success Rate. They scored 30.9 Points-Per-Game and generated 407.0 Yards-Per-Game. They should continue off the momentum they have established since Haener returned to action. Fresno State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home against a conference rival — and they are 27-13-2 ATS in their last 42 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 30 of their last 45 games after winning three or more conference games in a row — and they have covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread as a double-digit favorite in their last game. Fresno State has a good defense that gives up only 20.8 PPG — and they have held their last three opponents to just 14.7 PPG. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Boise State has failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by double-digits. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a win by 17 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Broncos' season turned around after a 2-2 start when offensive coordinator Tim Plough was replaced by former Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach and veteran offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter. Freshman Taylor Green took over under center — and he led the team to a 6-1 record. While Green offers a running threat, he is not as dynamic as a passer as he averages only 196.9 passing YPG. He led an offense that averaged 7.25 Yards-Per-Play last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after generating 6.75 or YPP in their last game. Boise State gets to host this game on the blue turf at Albertsons Stadium — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home when favored by up to seven points.

FINAL TAKE: The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December — and the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Underdog of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (315) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (316). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308) in the Big 12 Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Kansas State (9-3) rides a three-game winning streak after their 47-27 win against Kansas as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (12-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 62-14 victory against Iowa State as a 9.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINT(S): I suspect the bubble bursts for the Horned Frogs who have been riding a wave of good fortune this season. TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. They have won all five of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They enjoy a +10 net turnover margin on the year — and they have only committed two turnovers in their last four games. Now this team faces the pressure of needing the win to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff. Do the Horned Frogs still make the playoff with a loss this afternoon? Who knows what this (crooked) committee will do? Before one says, “of course, they do, the one-loss teams are in!” — keep in mind that TCU would be at least a touchdown underdog on a neutral field against both Ohio State and Alabama. The committee faces an existential crisis regarding how they justify their TV show (which promotes their later televised games involving the ranked teams, always positioned for the game to represent a de-facto playoff game). They may decide to dodge the Ohio State versus Alabama question by screwing the Big 12 team — and the analytics will defend that position. The uncertainty adds pressure — and, frankly, the fact that TCU may think they will still can back may only compound matters. I don’t like it. As it is, the Horned Frogs are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. They only outgained the Cyclones last week by +47 net yards — they benefitted from a +3 net turnover margin. But now they go on the road where they are only outgaining their opponents by +13.0 net Yards-Per-Game while allowing their opponents to generate 415.7 net YPG. We saw last night with USC how teams with shaky defenses perform under pressure in neutral environments against physical opponents. TCU has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games played on a neutral field when favored by seven points or less. Kansas State gets to play the role of the spoiler — and they are 19-9-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up win. They have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a victory against a Big 12 opponent. Additionally, they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last contest. The Wildcats generated 7.16 Yards-Per-Play against the Jayhawks — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last contest. Kansas State averaged 6.33 YPP in their previous game at West Virginia — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games on the road after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Spencer Howard will be the starting quarterback in this game with Adrian Martinez still not 100%.   What Howard lacks in matching Martinez’s rushing ability, he makes up for in offering a vertical passing threat. Howard has 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions under key situations this season. In his last four starts for the Wildcats, he is leading an offense that generates 6.2 YPP — and Kansas State has outscored their opponents by an average score of 44-15. Martinez should be available as a backup — and he may get to play a few special packages that emphasize his running ability. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field — and they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Kansas State will be looking to avenge a 38-28 loss at TCU on October 22nd in a game where Martinez got injured in the contest and then Howard got banged up coming in relief which neutralized his effectiveness. The Wildcats held a 28-10 second-quarter lead before Howard got injured and they did not score the rest of the way. But Kansas State has still covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against the Horned Frogs. 25* CFB Conference Championship Game of the Year with the Kansas State Wildcats (307) plus the point(s) versus the TCU Horned Frogs (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310) in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Toledo (7-5) has lost two straight games after their 20-14 upset loss at Western Michigan as a 10.5-point favorite last Friday. Ohio (9-3) has won seven straight games after their 38-14 win against Bowling Green as a 5.5-point favorite back on November 22nd. This game will be played on a neutral field at Ford Field in Detroit.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROCKETS MINUS THE POINTS: Toledo limps into the MAC Championship Game — but keep in mind that they had clinched their spot in this game for weeks. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback with starter DeQuan Finn dealing with upper body and ankle injuries and backup Tucker Gleason hampered by an injury to his non-throwing hand. But Finn did start last week before getting pulled after throwing two interceptions. Expect Finn to play better. This is a step-up game for the Rockets who were projected as the favorites to win the conference title this year. Seventh-year head coach Jason Candle needs to bring this one home with rumblings getting louder in the Toledo fan base that his top-rated conference recruiting classes in five of the last six years should have produced more than one championship. The Rockets’ victory today should start with the play of their defense. They rank 8th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed and 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They also rank 11th in the FBS in Havoc Rate. They held the Broncos to just 188 total yards but lost that game because of a -3 net turnover margin. Toledo has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after an upset loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing two of their last three games. The offensive effort last week was a disappointment — but they are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games after not scoring more than 20 points. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after not scoring more than 14 points in their last contest. Ohio has an even more dire situation at quarterback after Kurtis Rourke suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago. Rourke posted a raw QBR of 81 which was the second-best mark of all quarterbacks playing for a Group of Five teams. The Bobcats experience a big drop-off in play with backup quarterback C.J. Harris who completed only 10 of 21 passes for 196 yards last week. While Harris does offer the team a dual-threat rushing option, now Toledo has game tape on how Ohio wants to deploy him. Not much was expected of this Bobcats team that was 3-9 last year in the first season under head coach Tim Ahlin. But the Bobcats have lived on an opportunistic defense that has forced 24 turnovers this year. However, it is difficult to continue to rely on winning the turnover battle as Ohio has a +13 net turnover margin this season. They have only committed one turnover in their last three games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. The takeaways are obscuring the fact that the Bobcats are getting outgained in yardage this season. When playing away from home, Ohio is getting outscored by -4.5 net Points-Per-Game and outgained by -77.7 net Yards-Per-Game. The Bobcats have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after winning their previous game by 20 or more points.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has pulled off four upset wins this year — but one of those upsets was not at home against the Rockets earlier this year when they got beat by a 35-23 score. The Bobcats rank 113th in the nation in  Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed — and they give up 441.8 total YPG. Toledo has covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams who allow 425 or more YPG. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Blowout of the Year with the Toledo Rockets (309) minus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (310). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). THE SITUATION: Akron (2-9) snapped a nine-game losing streak with a 44-12 upset win at Northern Illinois as a 9.5-point underdog last Saturday. Buffalo (5-6) has lost three in a row after a 30-27 loss in overtime to Kent State as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. This game got rescheduled after the blizzard in Buffalo two weeks ago postponed this contest originally planned for November 19th.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bulls need to end their recent slide and get the victory this afternoon to become bowl eligible — so head coach Maurice Linguist’s team will be motivated to play well. Buffalo has played 5 straight Overs after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after a loss at home. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after an upset loss at home to a conference rival. And while that game finished Over the 50.5-point Total, they have then played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing an Over in their last game. The Bulls have scored at least 24 points in ten straight games while averaging 29.5 Points-Per-Game on the season. But stopping their opponent has been an issue as they are allowing 28.5 PPG and 404.5 total Yards-Per-Game at home at UB Stadium — and they have surrendered 35.3 PPG and 422.0 YPG in their last three contests. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Akron has disappointed in their first year under head coach Joe Moorhead — but he will want to end the season on a high note. D.J. Irons was the starting quarterback for most of the season before missing the last two because of injury. Junior Jeff Undercuffler stepped up last week by completing 21 of 32 passes for 312 yards with three touchdown passes while leading the Zips offense to 512 total yards. Look for the offensive fireworks to continue as Akron has played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Zips have scored 72 combined points in their last two games — and they have reached at least 27 points in five of their last seven games. Despite their nine losses, Akron has lost four of their last seven games by one possession. But their defense had surrendered at least 27 points in six straight games before their surprising performance against the Huskies last week. The Zips have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after allowing no more than 20 points in their last contest — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. Akron has allowed 36 PPG against FBS opponents — and they let their opponents generate 6.1 Yards-Per-Play and 8.7 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game which are both outside the top 115 marks in the nation. When playing on the road, the Zips give up 39.3 PPG and 461.7 total YPG. They have played 10 of their last 14 games Over the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Akron has played 10 of their last 15 games Over the Total on the road as an underdog — and Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total as a favorite laying 10.5 to 14 points. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Akron Zips (327) and the Buffalo Bulls (328). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). THE SITUATION: UNLV (4-7) lost for the sixth time in a row after a 31-25 upset loss at Hawai’i as an 11-point favorite last Saturday. Nevada (2-9) has lost nine games in a row after a 41-14 loss to Fresno State as a 22-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS MINUS THE POINTS: UNLV got caught traveling away from the mainland to play in Honolulu last week. They outgained the Rainbow Warriors by a 427 to 369 margin in yards in that game but still lost the game. The Rebels did get a good game out of quarterback Doug Brumfield who completed 23 of 37 passes for 288 yards while adding 55 more yards on the ground. UNLV has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Rebels are a better team than their record indicates. Brumfield missed two games this season due to injury — and they averaged just 7.0 Points-Per-Game in those contests. But when Brumfield is healthy and under center, they are scoring 30.0 PPG. They lost all four of their games decided by one-scoring possession. They played tough against quality competition a 4-point loss to San Diego State, a 7-point loss to Fresno State, and a 6-point loss at California. They also scored 21 points on the road in South Bend against Notre Dame. Returning home to Allegiant Stadium on the Las Vegas strip, UNLV is scoring 35.6 PPG and generating 411.2 total Yards-Per-Game. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Nevada started the season with two straight wins — but they are reeling now after getting scoring only 17 combined points and giving up 82 points to Boise State and Fresno State in their last two contests. Their average losing margin in their nine-game losing streak has been by three touchdowns. They lost to Incarnate Word out of the FCS by 14 points. At this point of the season, it appears that the Wolf Pack are low on morale. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss by 20 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Nevada gave up 524 yards last week to the Bulldogs — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not scoring more than 20 points in their last game. Quarterback Nate Cox is completing only 51% of his passes and averaging just 5.7 yards-per-attempt. They go back on the road where they are gaining only 244.0 YPG.

FINAL TAKE: UNLV will be motivated to end their season on a high note while avenging a 51-20 loss at Nevada to their in-state rival last week. The Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and Nevada has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year with the UNLV Rebels (198) minus the points versus the Nevada Wolf Pack (187). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). THE SITUATION: Clemson (10-1) has won two games in a row after their 40-10 win against Miami (FL) as a 19-point favorite last Saturday. South Carolina (7-4) comes off their 63-38 upset win against Tennessee as a 23.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Gamecocks come off their Super Bowl as they rebounded from a 38-6 shellacking to Florida by shocking a Volunteers team that was still dreaming of a possible College Playoff berth before getting creamed by 25 points. South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler had thrown only eight touchdown passes all season before tossing six last week — but I suspect that speaks more about the state of the wretched Tennessee pass defense than it does about a sudden jump in quality in the Gamecocks passing attack. Rattler completed 30 of 37 passes for 438 yards — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Furthermore, South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after an upset win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after a win at home against an SEC rival. And in their last 11 games after a point spread victory, they are then 1-9-1 ATS. They go back on the road where are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games — and they are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Gamecocks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. They have allowed their last three opponents to generate 492.0 total Yards-Per-Game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after allowing 475 or more YPG in their last three contests. South Carolina is particularly vulnerable to good rushing attacks — they rank 128th in Opponent Rush Success Rate and 121st in Opponent Line Yards Allowed. Led by running back Will Shipley, Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that ranks 20th in the FBS in Line Yards. After suffering their lone loss of the season to Notre Dame, the Tigers have scored 71 combined points in their last two games while averaging 443 YPG. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 50 of their last 76 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. The Clemson defense remains stout as always — they held the Hurricanes to just 98 yards last week. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Clemson ranks 18th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate while ranking 20th in Opponent Finishing Drives. They also rank 4th in Havoc Rate — and South Carolina ranks 128th in the FBS in Havoc Rate Allowed. The Tigers stay at home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +18.7 PPG while outgaining their opponents by +137.0 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 32 home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Clemson needs to put up a big number for style points with the playoff committee that is not enamored with them right now — and they need to have their offense clicking before playing the suspect North Carolina defense in the ACC Championship Game next week. The Tigers’ playoff chances remain undervalued since with their strong possibility of only having one loss by the end of next week. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in November — and South Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games in November. The Gamecocks have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Clemson. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Clemson Tigers (158) minus the points versus the South Carolina Gamecocks (157). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (4-6) has lost six of their last seven games after a 20-14 upset loss at Oklahoma State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Texas Tech (5-5) snapped a two-game losing streak in a 43-28 win against Kansas as a 3.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CYCLONES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa State got upset for the third time this season with their loss to the Cowboys last week. It was also their fifth loss by one scoring possession. The Cyclones are still outscoring their opponents by +5.1 Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +89.7 net Yards-Per-Game. They remain motivated to win their remaining two games to become bowl eligible. Iowa State should play hard for head coach Matt Campbell as they are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after failing to score more than 20 points. Quarterback Hunter Dekkers struggled by throwing three interceptions last week — but the Cyclones have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after committing at least three turnovers. Iowa State has played six straight Unders due to the strength of their defense — they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after playing at least four straight Unders. The Cyclones are allowing only 16.7 PPG and 280.8 total YPG. They rank 2nd in the nation in Opponent Explosiveness Allowed and 5th in Points Allowed-Per-Drive. They return home for Senior Night where they are outscoring their opponents by +10.0 PPG and outgaining them by +81.5 net YPG. Iowa State has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 home games after losing three of their last four contests. And while the Cyclones have allowed 57 and 76 rushing yards in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 28 of their last 41 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. Texas Tech got outgained by 25 yards despite their 15-point victory. But the Red Raiders are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win against a Big 12 rival. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a point spread win — and they are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Texas Tech will likely have to call on backup quarterback Tyler Shough to make his third start this season with Behren Morton questionable with an ankle injury. He will have to carry a defense that surrendered 525 yards last week to the Jayhawks. The Red Raiders have given up 35.7 PPG and 465.3 YPG in their last three contests. They go back on the road where they are winless in four contests while getting outscored by -10.5 net PPG. They only score 24.3 PPG on the road this season. Texas Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 23 road games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 7 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa State will have the additional motivation of revenge after getting upset in Lubbock last season by a 41-38 score as a 12.5-point road favorite. The Red Raiders are still only 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings against the Cyclones. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa State Cyclones (320) minus the points versus Texas Tech (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). THE SITUATION: Baylor (6-4) had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 31-3 upset loss at home to Kansas State as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. TCU (10-0) remained undefeated this season with their 17-10 upset win at Texas as a 7.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: We had the Longhorns last week but got stung by the Horned Frogs playing their best defensive game of the season. TCU held Texas to just 199 total yards and made quarterback Quinn Ewers look like a freshman (and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian as a consistent underachiever in big games). But this Horned Frogs' defense remains a concern. They had allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games before last week. They rank 113rd in Opponent Finishing Drive — and they are just 113th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They stay on the road where they are giving up 398.8 total Yards-Per-Game. The Horned Frogs clinched a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game in two weeks — but they still have tons of pressure on them since they control their fate to make the College Football Playoff. This is a prime letdown spot after the upset win against Texas. As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after an upset victory as a road underdog. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after a win by seven points or less to a Big 12 rival. And while they held the Longhorns scoreless in the first half, they have then failed to cover the point spread in their last 3 games after not allowing more than a field goal in the first half of their last game. Quarterback Max Duggan completed 19 of his 29 passes but for only 124 passing yards. TCU managed just 283 total yards of offense despite being on offense for 37:22 minutes of that game. They have failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after not passing for more than 125 yards in their last contest. Duggan is playing through a calf injury that is impacting his mobility and completely taking away his scrambling abilities. Baylor’s three points and 103 rushing yards were both their lowest marks in those areas since 2020. The defense got caught unprepared for the Wildcats' passing attack after an injury forced Adrian Martinez out of the game early for Will Howard who offers Kansas State a passing threat (despite lacking Martinez’s mobility). Overall, it was just a very flat effort from this Baylor team on both sides of the football. But head coach Dave Aranda has been effective in getting his team ready to play after an underwhelming effort. The Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 21-4-2 ATS in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning two of their last three games. They stay at home at Waco for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +13.4 net PPG and outgaining them by +139.4 net YPG. Baylor has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 home games as an underdog. And while they did not force a turnover last week, they have covered the point spread in 6 straight home games after not forcing at least one turnover in their last game. The Bears and quarterback Blake Shapen have been inconsistent this season. They have been upset three times this season by Oklahoma State, West Virginia, and Kansas State last week. But they have pulled off upsets against Oklahoma and Iowa State. Shapen should play better after throwing two interceptions last week. His turnover-worthy plays are cut in half when he does not face pressure. He should have plenty of time to find open receivers given the suspect TCU pass rush — and the Bears rank 19th in the nation in pass blocking. Baylor also ranks 20th in the FBS in Rush Success Rate — and the Horned Frogs are just 50th in the nation in Opponent Rush Success Rate Allowed. The Bears have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games as an underdog. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range.

FINAL TAKE: TCU has been fortunate to play four opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their ten games after fourth-quarter deficits. I thought they would get exposed last week — but we got Sarked. While it is foolish to chase losses, we don’t want to ignore good opportunities simply because of the previous week’s results either. This is a good spot for Baylor who is dangerous in the role of the underdog — so let’s attack. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (398) plus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (397). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). THE SITUATION: Tulane (8-2) had their five-game winning streak snapped in a 38-31 upset loss at home to Central Florida as a 1-point favorite on Saturday. SMU (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 41-23 win at South Florida as a 17.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane should still control their fate to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game if they win their final two games. They should play better this week as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a point spread. And while they have covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 15 home games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. The Green Wave did allow 468 total yards to the Knights on Saturday — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after allowing 450 or more yards in their last game. They stay at home where they are outscoring their opponents by +16.5 Points-Per-Game and outgaining their guests by +113.5 net Yards-Per-Game. Tulane’s visitors are scoring only 18.7 PPG and generating 314.0 YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 36 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against conference opponents — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Head coach Willie Fritz is getting reliable play from quarterback Michael Pratt. Even in the loss to Central Florida, Pratt completed 23 of 39 passes for 236 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has 17 touchdown passes and just four interceptions this season. He leads an offense that ranks 30th in Pass Success Rate. Tulane should have success against this Mustangs’ defense that ranks 117th in Opponent Pass Explosiveness Allowed. SMU also ranks 119th in Opponent Rush Explosiveness Allowed — and they rank 77th in the nation in Opponent Success Rate Allowed overall. The Mustangs’ Achilles’ heel is their defense as they are allowing 32.6 PPG and 446.4 total YPG. The 23 points that the Bulls scored against them were the fewest points allowed this season — they had allowed at least 29 points in each of their previous nine contests. SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games on the road after a win by 17 or more points. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two in a row against conference rivals. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring 40 or more points in their last game.  They have covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after covering the point spread in four of their last five games. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on the road after winning four of their last five games. They stay on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And in SMU’s last 20 games in November, they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane will be motivated to avenge a 55-26 loss at SMU last season as a 14-point favorite on October 21st. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when favored by 3.5 to 10 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Tulane Green Wave (314) minus the points versus the SMU Mustangs (313). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (197) and the San Diego State Aztecs (198). THE SITUATION: San Jose State (6-2) has won two games in a row after a 28-16 victory against Colorado State as a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday. San Diego State (5-4) has won three of their last four games after a 14-10 victory against UNLV as a 5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Spartans held their sixth opponent in their eight games to no more than 17 points in their victory against the Rams. The Under is 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a straight-up win — and they have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after winning a win against a conference rival. Additionally, San Jose State has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. They did give up 468 yards in the game — but the Under is 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after giving up 450 or more yards in their last contest. They have played 8 straight Unders after winning multiple games in a row. The Spartans rank 17th in the nation in Opponent Offensive Success Rate. Led by Vilami Fehoko’s 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks, San Jose State ranks in the top ten in the nation in sacks and 13th in Havoc Rate. They hold their opponents to under 100 rushing Yards-Per-Game. Overall, they are giving up just 16.4 Points-Per-Game and 316.9 YPG. But while they score 27.1 PPG overall, that scoring average plummets by more than a touchdown to 19.7 PPG when playing on the road. The Spartans have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 6 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. San Diego State has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Aztecs are once again stout on defense — they hold their opponents to 21.3 PPG. But they struggle to move the football as they are averaging just 19.6 PPG and 309.8 YPG. They have not scored more than 23 points in seven of their nine games. They rank 108th in the nation in Offensive Success Rate — and they are only 113th in the FBS in Rushing Success Rate. San Diego State has played twenty-two of their last twenty-nine games Under the Total after not scoring more than 20 points in their last contest. They return home where they are scoring just 21.0 PPG — but they hold their guests to only 16.6 PPG. The Under is 40-19-1 in the Aztecs’ last 60 games at home — and they have played 10 of their last 13 home games Under the Total as an underdog. The Under is also 13-2-1 in their last 16 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 11-4-1 in San Diego State’s last 16 games against teams with a winning record — and San Jose State has played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the San Jose State Spartans (197) and the San Diego State Aztecs (198). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). THE SITUATION: Texas (6-3) has won four of their last five games after their 34-27 win at Kansas State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. TCU (9-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 34-24 win against Texas Tech as a 9-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS MINUS THE POINTS: Texas has lost three games this season — and they are still laying a touchdown against an unbeaten Horned Frogs team that is currently fourth in the College Football Playoff rankings. Since 1979, there had been six teams with three or more losses who were listed as a favorite against a team with a 9-0 or better record — and none of those teams were laying more than a field goal. This game presents the fifth time in the College Football Playoff era that a top-five team was listed as an underdog against an opponent not ranked in the top ten. Why are the Longhorns favored? For starters, the laptops love them. They have played well in all their games, win or loss, including impressive performances in terms of efficiency against Alabama and Oklahoma. Their three losses were by a combined 11 points. They lead the nation by generating 7.5 Yards-Per-Play — and they are 7th in the FBS by scoring 3.2 Points-Per-Drive. They are led by running back Bijan Robinson who ran the ball 30 times for 209 yards last week against the Wildcats — and Texas has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Longhorns generated 466 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while Texas gave up 329 passing yards to Kansas State, they have then covered the point spread in 33 of their last 51 games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. The Longhorns still have the better defense in this game — they have not allowed more than 21 points in six of their nine games this season (including the Crimson Tide). TCU sports a big-play offense that leads the nation with 13 touchdowns of 40 or more yards — but Texas has only allowed seven gains of 40 or more yards this season, ranking 3rd in the Big 12. The Longhorns also rank 9th in the nation in pass rush — and the Horned Frogs rank just 85th in the nation in pass blocking. After playing their last two games on the road, Texas returns home to Texas Memorial Stadium where they are holding their opponents to just 18.2 Points-Per-Game while outscoring their opponents by +16.6 net PPG. The Longhorns have covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games after playing their last two games on the road. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70-point range including five of these last six circumstances. TCU has been fortunate to play three opponents who were using backup quarterbacks due to injuries. They have rallied to win four of their nine games after fourth quarter deficits. The Horned Frogs have allowed at least 24 points in seven straight games. They rank 121st in Opponent Finishing Drives and 60th in Points Allowed Per Drive. And while Texas is vulnerable to good pass rushes by ranking 114th in the nation in Pass Blocking, TCU is just 109th in the FBS in Pass Rush. They go back on the road where they are giving up 27.3 PPG and 448.5 total YPG. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games as an underdog. And while they allowed 157 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. Max Duggan has been quite efficient under center for this team, the senior suffered a calf injury two weeks ago in their game against West Virginia. In the last two weeks, Duggan has only rushed for 20 yards from designed running plays with his calf seeming to limit his mobility.

FINAL TAKE: TCU’s first-year head coach Sonny Dykes was notorious for the “Sonny swoons” in November in his previous stop at SMU. His Mustangs teams from 2019-2021 had a 21-3 straight-up record before November 1st but a 4-8 record after that date. With TCU controlling their destiny to the college football playoff, the pressure is on — and their bubble is at risk of bursting in this night game in Austin where ESPN College Game Day sets up shop this week. 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (200) minus the points versus the TCU Horned Frogs (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (7-2) rebounded from their loss at Central Florida with a 20-10 victory against Navy as an 18.5-point favorite last Saturday. East Carolina (6-3) has won three in a row after their 27-24 upset win at BYU as a 3-point underdog back on October 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS MINUS THE POINTS: Cincinnati held the Midshipmen to just a field goal in the first half last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than three points in their last contest. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game —  and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. The Bearcats have not covered the point spread in four straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not covering the point spread in four straight games. They generated 6.64 Yards-Per-Play against Navy — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 home games after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last contest. Cincinnati is 4-0 at home with an average winning margin of +22.0 PPG and an average net yardage differential of +117.3 net Yards-Per-Game. They are scoring 39.0 PPG at home with a 423.8 net YPG mark. Senior quarterback Ben Bryant completed 25 of 35 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. The former backup to Desmond Ridder who transferred to Eastern Michigan to play for a year before returning to the Bearcats is finding his rhythm running the offense. He threw for 298 yards in the loss to the Knights two weeks ago. Cincinnati is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 home games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points. They have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. East Carolina has pulled off two straight upset victories — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 41 of their last 63 games after a win on the road including failing to cover the point spread in four of these last five circumstances. They did rush for 244 yards against the Cougars last week — but they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Pirates have generated 6.74 YPP and 7.31 YPP in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. East Carolina has not committed a turnover in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games. They face a challenge from this Bearcats pass defense that ranks 20th in the nation in Opponent’s Pass Success Rate Allowed and 7th in Havoc Rate while leading the American Athletic Conference in sacks. The Pirates stay on the road where they are allowing 411.3 YPG. East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 road games with the Total set in the 49.5-56 point range. Furthermore, the Pirates have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in conference play — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a Friday night.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against the Bearcats — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games at Cincinnati. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Cincinnati Bearcats (119) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (120). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 42-20 victory in Jacksonville against Florida as a 23.5-point favorite last Saturday. Tennessee (8-0) is undefeated this season after their 44-6 win against Kentucky as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: This is the third meeting between the Associated Press number one and number two ranked teams in a regular season game since 2006. Only twice previously has the AP’s second-ranked team been an underdog of more than seven points. Tennessee is ranked second in the AP poll given their dynamic offense that Alabama was not able to slow down. But the Volunteers only beat a Gators team that Georgia just decimated by a 38-33 score. Tennessee needed overtime to beat a mediocre Pittsburgh team on the road earlier in the season. Now after signature wins at home against Florida and Alabama, the Volunteers look to continue their breakout season after not enjoying a ten-win season for over a decade. It may be difficult for this team to avoid getting their bubble burst now playing in a hostile environment. As it is, Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 30 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win at home by 17 or more points. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 14 points in their last contest. And while they held the Wildcats to just 98 passing yards last week, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. The Volunteers have covered the point spread in seven of their eight games this season - but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after covering the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. They go back on the road for just the third time this season where they have not been as dynamic on offense. Their 37.0 Points-Per-Game and 459.5 Yards-Per-Game in their two road games is impressive — but it is still -12.4 PPG and -93.6 YPG below their season averages. The canary in the coal mine may be the 27 points they were held to at Pittsburgh against the Pat Narduzzi-coached Panthers defense (that is not elite this season). Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. The Volunteers have a good front seven that defends the run well and gets pressure on the quarterback. But the weakest unit in this game will be the Tennessee secondary which is more vulnerable after the season-ending injury to senior cornerback Warren Burrell. The Volunteers give up 301 passing YPG — and they rank 87th in Opponent Pass Success Rate Allowed. They rank 55th in the nation in Opponent Quarterback Rating. They are 126th in the nation by allowing 33 pass plays of 10 or more yards. They also rank 80th in Yards Allowed Per Drive. They are giving up 385.5 YPG when on the road. Now they play the defending national champions who lead the nation's Passing Success Rate on both standard downs and passing downs. Led by sixth-year senior Stetson Bennett at quarterback, the Bulldogs lead the nation in Success Rate on offense — and they are 5th in the nation in Points-Per-Drive. Georgia also leads the nation by scoring on 97.87% of their drives inside the red zone. Bennett has the best tight end duo at his disposal in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington who have combined for 50 receptions and 879 yards. The Bulldogs have an emerging star at running back as well in sophomore Dijon Edwards who has averaged 7.0 Yards-Per-Carry with six touchdowns in the last three weeks. The Bulldogs have scored at least 39 points in six of their eight games. Georgia has not allowed more than 22 points in a game this season — and they have held five of their opponents to 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have the talent in the secondary to slow down the Volunteers' passing attack. Kelee Ringo is an elite man-to-man cover cornerback. Cornerbacks Kamari Lassiter and Daylen Everette often get the man-to-man assignments next to Ringo — and they have combined to allow only 12 receptions on 30 pass attempts with two interceptions. Furthermore, slot cornerback Javon Bullard and free safety Christopher Smith are the top-two graded defensive backs in man-to-man coverage skills with neither missing a tackle in the over 250 snaps they have played this season. Overall, Georgia is second in the nation by allowing 10.5 PPG — and they are giving up only 262.3 YPG. The sack rate is not nearly as high as it was last season — but defensive tackle Jalen Carter has played through injuries this season and may be ready to break out. Carter was widely considered the best player on the Bulldogs' defense last season. Georgia has looked vulnerable at times this year with listless efforts against Missouri and Kent State — but don’t forget the thorough 49-3 shellacking they gave Oregon to begin the season. I suspect the Bulldogs were simply flat in the underwhelming efforts earlier in the year. But they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a win where they did not cover the point spread in as the favorite. And while they gained 555 total yards against the Gators, they have then covered the point spread in 21 of their last 29 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. They host this game at Sanford Stadium where they have won all four of their games by an average winning margin of +34.3 PPG. The Bulldogs' defense holds their guests to just 8.0 PPG and 204.5 YPG at home — and three of their four visitors were held to 10 points or less. They are also scoring 42.3 PPG and averaging 522.0 YPG at home. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 home games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Georgia ceiling is higher than what this Tennessee team is capable of — as demonstrated by their wins against Oregon this season as well as their double-digit victories against Michigan and Alabama in the playoffs last year. The Bulldogs crushed the Volunteers in Knoxville last year by a 41-17 score in a game where they registered six sacks and nine tackles for loss. Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against Georgia. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (400) minus the points versus the Tennessee Volunteers (399). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (4-3) has lost two of their last three games after a 24-10 loss at Louisville as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (6-1) is on a three-game winning streak after their 38-35 win at Duke as a 7-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels return to action after their bye week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after their bye week. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing with seven or more days between games. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after a win against an ACC rival. North Carolina is 6th in the nation in Yards-Per-Play on offense after generating 536 total yards against the Blue Devils. But they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. And while the Tar Heels have averaged 7.4 and 6.6 YPP in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after generating at least 6.0 YPP in two straight games. But the problem with this team is their defense that allows 476.6 Yards-Per-Game. North Carolina ranks 120th in Opponent Rush Success Allowed and 110th in Opponent Pass Success Allowed. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home. Pittsburgh outgained the Cardinals last week by a 326 to 312 yardage margin but was done-in by a 59-yard fumble recovery defensive touchdown along with a -3 net turnover margin. But Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last contest. Quarterback Kedon Slovis threw two interceptions and only generated 158 yards in the air — but the Panthers have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after gaining no more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Slovis has the opportunity to redeem himself against this Tar Heels pass defense that has allowed four of their six opponents to gain at least 245 yards in the air. Pittsburgh also has one of the best running backs in the country in senior Israel Abanikanda who has 959 rushing yards on 6.1 Yards-Per-Carry. North Carolina allows opposing rushers to average 187 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. They stay on the road where they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record at home.

FINAL TAKE: Head coach Pat Narduzzi has an outstanding pass defense that should slow down the Tar Heels freshman quarterback Drake Mayo and this potent North Carolina passing attack. The Panthers rank 9th in the nation in Opponent Pass Success Rate and 4th in the FBS in Opponent Expected Points Added per Pass Attempt. They gained experience facing an up-tempo offense when they played Tennessee — and they held the Volunteers to only three points in the second half in that game. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Pittsburgh Panthers (153) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (154). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). THE SITUATION: Tulsa (3-4) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 27-16 win at Temple as a 14-point favorite last Friday. SMU (3-4) has lost four of their last five games after a narrow 29-27 loss at home to Cincinnati as a 3.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN HURRICANE PLUS THE POINT(S): Tulsa has been a very reliable underdog under head coach Philip Montgomery. Since 2019, the Golden Hurricane are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog with four upset victories during that stretch — and they have covered the point spread in nine straight games when getting the points. This team needs wins to become bowl eligible so this is a critical game for them this afternoon. Tulsa has covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after a point spread loss. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Led by Davis Brin at quarterback, the Golden Hurricane generated 454 yards of offense against the Owls — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. He has 16 touchdown passes this season while averaging 9.0 yards per completion.  Tulsa ranks 12th in the nation in Finishing Drives. They return home where they are scoring 37.7 Points-Per-Game while gaining 448 Yards-Per-Game — they are outscoring their guests by +10 PPG and outgaining them by +98.0 YPG. Tulsa is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home. The Golden Hurricane are tough to pass against. They rank 21st in the nation by allowing only 165 passing YPG. They rank 19th in Opponent Pass Success Rate — and their opponent completion percentage rate of 53% is 11th best in the FBS. SMU may be without Tanner Mordecai who left last week’s game against the Bearcats with an undisclosed injury that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. If he does not play, we are in great shape since the Mustangs will have to turn to redshirt freshman Preston Stone under center. He completed only 6 of 15 passes for 74 yards in relief last week. SMU only gained 279 yards against Cincinnati while getting outgained by -100 net yards. Even if Mordecai plays and completes the game, the Mustangs are in a tough spot this afternoon. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a point spread victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games on the road after a narrow loss by six points or less. They go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games after the first month of the season. The Mustangs’ defense is vulnerable —  they are giving up 449 YPG on the road. They rank 98th in the nation by giving up 327 passing YPG. They also struggle against the run with opposing rushers generating 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 123rd in the FBS by giving up 205 rushing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: SMU has failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight meetings against the Golden Hurricane. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Underdog of the Year with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (178) plus the point(s) versus the SMU Mustangs (177). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). THE SITUATION: California (3-3) has lost two games in a row after their 20-13 upset loss at Colorado in overtime as a 15.5-point favorite last Saturday. Washington (5-2) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 49-39 win against Arizona as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: California has now lost three times to an opponent that was 0-5 or worse on the season under head coach Justin Wilcox — and they scored only 7.7 Points-Per-Game in those embarrassing losses. In 2018, the Golden Bears responded with a 42-point win at Oregon State. Last year, they responded with a 30-point win at Stanford. Cal has simply not been a reliable favorite under Wilcox — but they have been money in the underdog role. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 24 of their 34 games as an underdog — and they have pulled off 13 upsets in those contests. They have also covered the point spread in 16 of their last 19 games as an underdog getting seven or more points including in their 24-17 loss at Notre Dame as a 13.5-point dog earlier this season. They have covered the point spread in 6 straight games at home as an underdog getting seven or more points. Cal should play better tonight to redeem themselves from their bad loss at Colorado inspired by playing under an interim head coach. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a point spread loss. And in their last 7 games after not scoring at least 20 points in their last game, they have covered the point spread in 6 of those games. The Golden Bears have won all three of their games at home this season with an averaging winning margin of +14.0 PPG. Their offense wakes up when playing at home where they are scoring 34.3 PPG and generating 461.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are outgaining their guests by +50.6 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread loss. They gained 595 total yards against the Wildcats last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. First-year head coach Kalen DeBoer has quickly fixed the offensive woes for the Huskies in the last few years — and bringing in transfer quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. was a great move. Washington is scoring 42.1 PPG — but they now face a Cal defense that ranks 25th in the nation in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate. But the problem for the Huskies now is the complete collapse of what was once a consistently strong defense. Losing three players to the NFL from last year hurt — but this unit ranks 115th in Opponent Finishing Drive Rate and 102nd in Opponent Pass Success Rate. Washington goes back on the road for the third time in their last four games where they are winless this season with two losses by more than seven points. They have allowed their home hosts to score 42.5 PPG and generate 448.0 YPG against them. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Wilcox will remind his team that they lost to the Huskies on the road last season by a 31-24 score. Washington has failed to cover the point spread in 25 of their last 35 games in conference play. 25* CFB Pac-12 Underdog of the Month with the California Golden Bears (374) plus the points versus the Washington Huskies (373). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (383) and the LSU Tigers (384). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (7-0) remained unbeaten this season with their 48-33 victory against Auburn as a 14.5-point favorite last Saturday. LSU (5-2) has won five of their last six games after their 45-35 upset win at Florida as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Rebels have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring 40 or more points in their last game. Ole Miss racked up 448 rushing yards in the victory — but they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Rebels run the ball 65.5% of the time behind two dynamic rushers in Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins. Their talent makes up for a mediocre offensive line that will face their stiffest test of the season against the talent that LSU has on their defensive line. Quarterback Jaxson Dart’s season stats are propped up from two big games against Georgia Tech and Central Arkansas — but he completed only 9 of 19 passes for 130 yards against the Tigers last week. The Ole Miss defense plays aggressively with pressure on the quarterback and a good pass defense. They hold their opponents to just 6.6 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game. The Rebels front seven holds opposing rushers to 3.9 Yards-Per-Carry — and they rank 19th in sack rate. Head coach Lane Kiffin’s group of is one of three teams in the nation that have not allowed more than 25 plays of 20 or more yards this season. Mississippi goes back on the road where they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total — and the Under is 41-17-1 in their last 59 games on the road against teams with a winning record at home. LSU has played 5 straight Unders after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. They have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. The Tigers’ defense is limiting points when their opponents get into the Red Zone — they allow just 3.2 points per Red Zone trip by their opponent, ranking 19th in the nation. They return home to Baton Rouge where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Ole Miss has played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against SEC rivals. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Mississippi Rebels (383) and the LSU Tigers (384). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (170) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (169). THE SITUATION: Utah (4-2) looks to bounce back from their 42-32 upset loss at UCLA as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. USC (6-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 30-14 win against Washington State as an 11.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Ken Whittingham certainly had an attentive group of players this week after the upset loss to the Bruins where they surrendered 502 total yards. Whittingham claimed his team got out-toughed by UCLA — so expect a bruising response by this team against the Trojans.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (187) and the Texas Longhorns (188). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (3-3) has lost three games in a row after their 10-9 loss to Kansas State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. Texas (4-2) comes off a 49-0 shellacking of Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry as a 7.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones’ offense has stalled by averaging only 15 Points-Per-Game in their three-game losing streak — and they have scored only 20 combined points in their last two contests. They have become one-dimensional due to a struggling rushing attack as they have averaged just 56 rushing Yards-Per-Game in their losing streak while generating only 2.0 Yards-Per-Carry. Iowa State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a loss — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points. They are scoring just 23.2 PPG — and now they go on the road where they are scoring 10.5 PPG and averaging only 318.0 total Yards-Per-Game. The Under is 19-8-1 in their last 28 games on the road. The Cyclones’ defense is keeping them competitive — head coach Matt Campbell’s team is holding their opponents to 13.7 PPG and 277.8 total YPG. They have held five or six opponents to no more than 14 points. Iowa State has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 34-16-1 in their last 51 games against teams with a winning record. Texas has held five of their six opponents to 20 or points or less. They rank 9th in the nation in opponent Rushing Success Rate Allowed — so they should continue to force the Cyclones into being too reliant on their passing attack to move the ball. Head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team got Quinn Ewers back at quarterback last week against the Sooners — and he completed 21 of 31 passes for 289 yards with four touchdown passes while leading the Longhorns to 585 total yards. But Texas has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points. They have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards. Additionally, they have played 35 of their last 51 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Longhorns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 straight Unders in October.

FINAL TAKE: After Texas’ 30-7 win in Ames against the Cyclones last season, these two teams have played 7 straight Unders. These two teams have also played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing in Austin. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (187) and the Texas Longhorns (188). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (2-3) has lost two of their last three games after their 24-20 loss at Buffalo as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Kent State (2-3) has won two of their last three games after their 31-24 win in overtime against Ohio as a 13-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami (OH) outgained the Bulls last week by a 359 to 278 yardage margin but could not pull out the game. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. The team is dealing with the likely season-ending injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert last month, but they are getting solid play from Aveon Smith under center. He completed 14 of 26 for 119 yards last week — but his biggest contributions were with his legs as he scored two touchdowns and rushed for 142 yards on twelve carries. Miami (OH) returns home to play just their second game in front of their home fans all season. The RedHawks have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 home games against teams with a losing record on the road. They have also covered the point spread in 19 of their last 25 home games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. Kent State comes off a huge offensive performance where they gained 736 total yards. Quarterback Collin Schlee completed 24 of 37 passes for 398 yards in the victory last week — but the Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 passing yards in their last game. And while they gained 7.67 Yards-Per-Play against the Bobcats, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Kent State has won both their games at home — but they are winless in their three games on the road while getting outscored by -24.0 Points-Per-Game. The Golden Flashes are scoring only 15.0 PPG on the road while averaging just 305.7 YPG. They have allowed their three home hosts to generate 495.0 total YPG. Granted, playing at Washington, Oklahoma, and Georgia is a brutal non-conference schedule — but Kent State’s season stats are propped by a 63-10 win at home against Long Island. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games on the road.

FINAL TAKE: Miami (OH) will be motivated to avenge a 48-47 loss at Kent State last year in a pick ‘em contest. The Golden Flashes have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against the RedHawks — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when playing at Miami (OH). 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Underdog of the Month with the Miami (OH) RedHawks (346) plus the points versus the Kent State Golden Flashes (345). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (345) and the Florida State Seminoles (346). THE SITUATION: Boston College (1-2) snapped a two-game losing streak last Saturday with a 38-17 victory against Maine as a 31.5-point favorite. Florida State (3-0) remained unbeaten this season with a 35-31 victory against Louisville as a 2.5-point favorite last Friday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Eagles got their first win of the season against an overmatched northeast FCS program — but this is a team that is going to struggle to move the football behind a retooled offensive line that replaced all five starters from last season. Boston College is scoring only 23.0 Points-Per-Game and generating 299.3 total Yards-Per-Game — and they are averaging just 4.7 Yards-Per-Play. The Eagles to struggling to run the football as they are averaging just 1.7 Yards-Per-Carry and they rank 125th in Rushing Success Rate. Against their two FBS opponents, Rutgers and Virginia Tech, BC has rushed for just 33 yards on 54 combined carries (which does include sacks). Head coach Jeff Hafley is relying on senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec — but he only completed 55% of his passes and averaged 6 yards per pass attempt against the Scarlet Knights and Hokies. He did complete 25 of 37 passes for 320 yards against Maine last week — but the Eagles have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Boston College has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and the Under is 39-18-2 in their last 59 games after not allowing more than 20 points. The Eagles' defense has been solid — they are allowing just 22.0 PPG and 328.0 total YPG. They have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total in September — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against ACC opponents. The Under is also 50-22-2 in their last 74 games on the road. Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis rolled his ankle last week in the game against the Cardinals and had to leave the game. After being questionable all week, the reports this afternoon is that Travis will take the field tonight — but his effectiveness will remain a question particularly because he does rely on his legs to get yardage. The Seminoles gained 455 total yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while they gave up 495 yards to Malik Cunningham and the Cardinals’ offense, they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 or more yards in their last contest. Florida State is improved on defense with eight starters back from last year from a group that did not allow more than 30 points in their final eight games last year. They have held their three opponents to 20.3 PPG and 335.7 YPG. The Seminoles rank 22nd in the nation by running the football in 61% of their plays on offense — and they will likely eclipse that mark given Travis’ gimpy ankle. Florida State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in September.

FINAL TAKE: The Seminoles pulled off a 26-23 upset on the road against the Eagles as a 3-point favorite on November 20th with the Total set at 55.5 — these two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Boston College Eagles (345) and the Florida State Seminoles (346). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). THE SITUATION: Washington State (3-0) continued their unbeaten start to the season with a 38-7 victory against Colorado State as a 17-point favorite last Saturday. Oregon (2-1) comes off their best game of the season in a 41-20 victory against BYU as a 3.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks may be due for a letdown after their statement victory against BYU. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread win. First-year head coach Dan Lanning takes over a program that has been upset in four of their last six games when playing on the road as the favorite — and they were laying at least 8.5 points in all four of those upset losses. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. Lanning tapped former Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to be his quarterback from the transfer portal — but the junior has a history of nasty home/road splits in his career. Granted, Nix comes off an efficient 13 of 18 passing effort against BYU where he passed for 222 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. In his career playing at home, Nix completes 65% of his passes with 30 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. But when playing on the road, Nix’s completion percentage drops to 55% with 12 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions. On the other side of the ball, Lanning’s plans to transform the Oregon defense remain a work in progress. After serving as the defensive coordinator at Georgia, Lanning inherited a Ducks defense that lost six of their top eight tacklers from a unit that ranked 72nd in the nation by allowing 385.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Oregon ranks 118th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate this season — and they rank 97th in opponent’s Explosiveness Rate. They are allowing their opponents to average 277.0 passing YPG, ranking 114th in the FBS. BYU passed for 305 yards last week despite missing their top two wide receivers to injury — and the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 18 of their last 25 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward comes off his best game for the Cougars last week. The highly-touted transfer from Incarnate Word completed 25 of 35 passes for 292 yards with four touchdown passes in the victory against the Rams. He led the Cougars to a 17-14 upset win against a nationally-ranked Wisconsin team the previous week. Washington State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread victory. But the strength of this team under head coach Jake Dickert has been the play of the defense. The Cougars are allowing just 12.7 Points-Per-Game this season — and they rank 12th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate with a balanced unit that is 18th in the FBS in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate and 17th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate. Washington State is holding their opponents to 90.7 rushing YPG, ranking 28th in the nation, and they have not allowed a rushing touchdown. They have also registered 14 sacks, the second-most in the nation. They held Colorado State to just 275 yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Cougars have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against Pac-12 competition.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State will have revenge on their minds after a 38-24 loss in Eugene against the Ducks on November 13th last season. But Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games against the Cougars — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against Washington State in Pullman. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (380) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (379). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-3) lost their third straight game to start the season after their 42-41 upset loss at home to Charlotte despite being a 20-point favorite last Saturday. Coastal Carolina (3-0) remained undefeated this year after a 38-26 win against Buffalo as a 12-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Expectations were very high for this Georgia State team that returned 15 starters from a group that finished 8-5 including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games to end the season with the team improving when head coach Shawn Elliott turned to former Furman transfer Darren Grainer at quarterback. Elliott has led this young program to three straight bowl games — and this may be his best roster yet in Atlanta. Georgia State does not shy away from difficult schedules — which explains two-thirds of their disappointing start this year. They opened the year in Columbia against South Carolina — and they outgained the Gamecocks but had two of their punts returned for a touchdown in the second half to blow that opportunity to pull the upset. We had them the next week at home against North Carolina — and they had a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter against the Tar Heels before letting the game slip away. They stayed at home to host a Charlotte team that, ironically, was the only team they beat in their first five games last year in a brutal early stretch of games against Army, at North Carolina, at Auburn, and home against Appalachian State. Frankly, the Panthers should have upset Auburn in their building last year. With this showdown against Coastal Carolina on deck, Georgia State was in a letdown sandwich situation where they risked being flat after disappointing results with a game on deck. But the Panthers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after a loss by six points or less in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after losing two games in a row at home. Mental mistakes are holding this team back. Too penalties played a role last week as well as a 52-yard fumble recovery that the 49ers returned for a touchdown. Don’t blame the offense too much as they gained 602 total yards and outgained Charlotte by +101 net yards. Grainger completed 22 of 34 passes for 343 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while adding another 54 yards on the ground. The 49ers return Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams from a backfield that ranked eighth in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing Yards-Per-Game — and they have improved on that mark this season by averaging 231 rushing YPG. They gained 259 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Additionally, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 475 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards. And while the defense gave up 401 passing yards last week, they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after giving up at least 325 passing yards in their last contest. Georgia State should be better on that side of the ball with nine of their top 11 tacklers on defense back from last year including three starters in their secondary. Coastal Carolina has looked shaky despite their unbeaten start to the season. They allowed 202 rushing yards on 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry in their opening game against Army — a concerning effort when now playing the Panthers' rushing attack. They were then outgained by Gardner Webb in a 32-27 victory despite being a 32.5-point favorite. Then last week against the Bulls, they entered the fourth quarter trailing by a 19-17 score before recovering a fumble that they returned for a 21-yard touchdown changed the momentum of that game. The Chanticleers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. And while they forced four turnovers last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after forcing at least three turnovers in their last contest. Coastal Carolina is led by their third-year starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, who is the two-time reigning Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year. But after 19 starters were back last year for their second-straight 11-win season, the team lost tons of talent on both sides of the ball for this year. On offense, McCall lost 161 receptions accounting for 2645 yards and 24 touchdowns including tight end Isaiak Likely who is developing into the third receiving option already for the Baltimore Ravens. The Chanticleers also lost a 1000-yard rusher in Shermari Jones to graduation and three starters on the offensive line. The defense lost their top-five tacklers — and the linebackers lost five of their top six from last year and seven of the top nine defensive backs. Fifth-year head coach Jamey Chadwell did his best to fortify the roster from the transfer portal but this is a young program as well that just finished a peak cycle. And don’t underestimate the importance of this team only losing six starts to injury last year which helped produce that 11-2 campaign. Now the depth issues for this program get exposed with just seven starters back. They are running the ball in 65% of their snaps — but they only rank 71st in Rushing Success Rate. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in conference play — and they are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: This Georgia State handed the Chanticleers one of their two losses last year — but McCall did miss that game with an injury. But this is a veteran Panthers team with 10 sixth-year super seniors back this year taking advantage of the COVID free-year of eligibility — and they must win this game to save their season. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games in conference play. Getting Coastal Carolina on a short week will help because their identity is to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (306) plus the points versus the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (305). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (1-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-32 loss at home to Oregon State as a 1-point underdog last Saturday. USC (2-0) is undefeated so far this season after their 41-28 victory at Stanford as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: USC has declared their program back to national prominence after following up their 66-14 victory against Rice two weeks ago with a 41-28 win at Stanford last week. First-year head coach Lincoln Riley was not saying anything to tap the breaks on all the accolades that have been offered to him in the interviews I saw of him this week. But this is the biggest test the Trojans will have so far this season against a Bulldogs team with a senior quarterback who will be drafted into the NFL. The Cardinal program has taken a step back in the last few seasons — so big wins against Rice and them are just not that big a deal. As it is, USC has failed to cover the point seeped in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. Furthermore, the Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Caleb Williams who came over with Riley from Oklahoma completed 20 of 27 passes for 341 yards with four touchdowns last week — but USC is just 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Riley developed a reputation for having his teams underperform in critical games when he was coaching the Sooners. The Trojans led Rice at halftime by a 31-14 score before taking a 35-14 halftime lead last week — but Riley’s teams have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a two-touchdown lead or better in two straight games. The underlying numbers suggest that this team may soon get a visit from the Regression Gods. USC has enjoyed a +8 net turnover margin this year — despite the expected turnover margin being just +2.5. The bouncing ball from fumbles and tipped passes tends to even out over time. Stanford turned the ball over twice inside the Trojans’ 5-yard line last week — and while the Trojans had a +4 net turnover margin in that game, the expected turnover margin was just +1.6. USC has intercepted six balls despite only having seven pass breakups — and the metrics indicate that teams get one interception per four pass breakups. The Trojans host this game where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games against non-conference opponents. Fresno State has 15 starters back from the team that finished 10-3 last year with a victory against UTEP in the New Mexico Bowl by a 31-24 score. The Bulldogs are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after a straight-up loss. And while they generated 492 yards against the Beavers last week, they have covered the point spread in 31 of their last 42 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Jake Haener completed 29 of 45 passes for 360 yards in a losing effort. He has an elite group of wide receivers led by Jalen Cropper and Josh Kelly. Haener is a gunslinger who will be able to move the ball against this USC defense that allowed 5.5 Yards-Per-Play and 441 total yards against Stanford. And the Bulldogs should have success running the football. Led by running backs Jordan Mims and Malik Sherrod who combined to average 5.9 Yards-Per-Carry, Fresno State ranks seventh in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. Despite Rice and Stanford being suspect running teams last year, both those teams averaged 6.8 Yards-Per-Carry in non-sack rushing attempts this season — and the Trojans rank 119th in opponent’s Rushing Success Rate. The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 games on the road — and they have covered 4 straight road games against teams with a winning record at home. They have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against Pac-12 opponents.

FINAL TAKE: Fresno State will be very motivated to make a statement against the biggest in-state program. They upset UCLA by a 40-37 score in Los Angeles last season with Haener having a big day. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Month with the Fresno State Bulldogs (201) plus the points versus the USC Trojans (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). THE SITUATION: UTSA (1-1) looks to rebound from their 41-38 upset loss in overtime at Army last Saturday as a 2-point favorite. Texas (1-1) comes off a 20-19 loss at home to Alabama as a 21-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: Once again, Texas has declared themselves “back” as a national power — this time this proclamation is being made despite not winning their last game. Admittedly, the Longhorns played their best game on defense in a long time — but that may speak more to the state of the Crimson Tide’s offensive line and talent at wide receiver than it does regarding the Texas defense that ranked 100th in the nation last year by allowing 425.6 total Yards-Per-Game. For a defensive unit that was called out last year for not playing hard, coming off a “successful” setback to now host a Group of Five opponent might be a recipe for disaster. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after losing their last game. Second-year head coach Steve Sarkisian has been anointed as a brilliant leader more than one time — only to find another way to fail. After the chaos under his watch as the head coach at USC, he was given another chance as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons before taking the same job at Alabama under Nick Saban. He took over the Texas program last year after Tom Herman, the previous “savior” who “resurrected the program to national stature” after beating Georgia in the 2020 Sugar Bowl to complete a four-loss season, was fired after four seasons. Despite having 15 starters back, the Longhorns settled for their first losing season in five seasons after the team lost six in a row in the second half of the season. Off-the-field chaos continued to follow Sarkisian  — and the team lost at home to Kansas. But forget all that. A win against UL-Monroe before the “triumph” of losing to Alabama in a close game changes everything … once again. Concerns remain from last week’s game. Texas only rushed for 79 yards on 33 carries despite having junior phenom Bijan Robinson who is now dealing with an injury that may slow him down in this game. They are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games after not rushing for at least 100 yards in their last game. The bigger news is that freshman Quinn Ewers suffered a broken clavicle that will keep him out for four to six weeks. Redshirt sophomore Hudson Card gets the start for this game after he came on in relief to complete 14 of 22 passes for 158 yards. But he is dealing with a nagging ankle injury that might limit his mobility which is central to his skill set. Card was benched after the section game last year because he was lacking in pocket presence. His confidence could easily get shot if this becomes a close game. UTSA is a very dangerous opponent. The reigning Conference USA champions return 13 starters from the team that finished 12-2 last year. This group is already battle-tested with both of their games this season going to overtime after losing their opening game against Houston despite outgaining them by 101 net yards. The Roadrunners then outgained the Black Knights last week by 28 net yards in pulling out that win. UTSA has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a point spread win. They have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and after gaining 513 yards against the solid Army defense, they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. Defense is a concern for this team after they allowed 485 yards last week — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Roadrunners have a sixth-year senior at quarterback with plenty of experience in Frank Harris. He is having an outstanding season. He is averaging 348 passing Yards-Per-Game with six touchdown passes to one interception — and he is adding 46.5 rushing YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games in September.

FINAL TAKE: While Texas just played their proverbial “Super Bowl” last week, this is the Roadrunners’ big opportunity to make a statement now. This is the first time that UTSA will be playing at Texas Memorial Stadium as they make the 80-mile trip north from San Antonio to Austin. This team will not be intimidated. They have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against non-conference opponents under third-year head coach Jeff Traylor — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games on turf where their team speed on offense can be better deployed. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the University of Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners (193) plus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (194). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (0-1) looks to bounce back from a 35-14 loss at South Carolina as a 12-point underdog last Saturday. North Carolina (2-0) survived a 63-61 upset win at Appalachian State as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: The Tar Heels were very fortunate to leave Boone, North Carolina with a victory last week. The Mountaineers missed a two-point conversion at the end of the game that would have forced overtime. Not only did the Tar Heels get outgained by 82 net yards, but they also surrendered a whopping 649 yards in that game with Appalachian State scoring an incredible 40 points in the fourth quarter alone. Fourth-year head coach Mack Brown brought in Gene Chizik as his new defensive coordinator to fix a defense that ranked 94th in the nation by allowing 418.0 total Yards-Per-Game last year. It is safe to say that remains a work in progress. The 11 starters that returned from last year’s team that settled for a 6-7 record may have learned the wrong lesson last week. They stay on the road this week to play another Sun Belt Conference team who they crushed by 32 points last year — so they may not be completely focused with a bye on deck before a showdown with Notre Dame. As it is, the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. This team has not fared well after playing a wild high-scoring game. North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where both teams scored 30 or more points. They did gain 567 yards last week — and they have averaged 8.85 and 9.45 Yards-Per-Play in their first two games. But the Tar Heels have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Their defense is a big problem — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, North Carolina has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games on the road games when favored. Additionally, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against non-conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a losing record. Georgia State should have a chip on their shoulder for this game after losing to an SEC opponent last week in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated. The Panthers outgained the Gamecocks by a 311-306 margin but had two punts blocked in the second half that were returned for touchdowns. Georgia State opened the game by driving inside South Carolina’s 10-yard line before turning the ball over on downs. The Gamecocks also nailed two field goals from beyond 50 yards. But this is a resilient team under head coach Shawn Elliott in his sixth year with the program. The Panthers won seven of their last eight games last year — including a 51-20 victory against Ball State in the Camellia Bowl — to finish the season with an 8-5 record. Fourteen starters return from that group including senior quarterback Darren Grainger. Georgia State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. And while last week’s game finished Under the 55-point Total, the Panthers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after playing an Under in their previous game. They should have success running the football against a Tar Heels defense that allowed Appalachian State to generate 6.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Georgia State has four starters back and their top two rushers from last year, Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams, from an offense that was 8th in the nation by averaging 226.4 rushing YPG. Grainger is a mobile quarterback who ran for 660 yards last season and who gained 43 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.                         

FINAL TAKE: Georgia State will not be intimidated by hosting a Power-Five team this afternoon. The Panthers outgained a Gamecocks team last week that soundly defeated the Tar Heels in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl by a 38-21 score last season. Georgia State upset Tennessee in Knoxville in 2019 — and they played Auburn tough on the road last season before losing by a 34-24 score. The Panthers will have revenge on their minds as well after getting embarrassed in Chapel Hill to the Tar Heels by a 59-17 score. That game was played early in the season before Grainger took over as the starting quarterback which helped turn their season around. 25* CFB Saturday ESPNU Game of the Month with the Georgia State Panthers (322) plus the points versus the North Carolina Tar Heels (321). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (0-0) returns 12 starters from their team that finished 11-2 after beating Utah in the Rose Bowl by a 48-45 score. Notre Dame (0-0) has 15 starters back from a team that finished 11-2 after a 37-35 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BUCKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Ohio State enters this season chippy after losing to Michigan last year and missing the College Football Playoff. Six starters are back on offense from a unit that led the nation by scoring 45.7 Points-Per-Game and 531.5 total Yards-Per-Game. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud erased any doubt if the Buckeyes’ offense would slow down after the departures of Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the Rose Bowl — he completed 37 of 46 passes for a whopping 573 yards with six touchdown passes and one interception despite those star wide receivers opting out of that game. Stroud shredded a strong Utah defense under head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore Jaxon Smith-Njigba demonstrated he could handle the top dog responsibilities at wide receiver by catching 15 balls for 347 yards and three touchdowns. Ohio State also returns running back TreVeyon Henderson who ran for 1248 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Henderson forced 50 missed tackles on his 183 carries. The Buckeyes' offense is going to be just fine. And their defense should be much improved with nine of their top ten tacklers back from a group that allowed 22.8 PPG, ranking 38th in the nation. Fourth-year head coach Jason Day tapped one of the best defensive coordinators in the nation Jim Knowles to come to Columbus to upgrade the defense. Ohio State had the top statistical defense in 2019 while serving as a pipeline into the NFL — so their decline the last two seasons maybe just a product of regression after so much attrition. The Buckeyes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games in September. Notre Dame is full of optimism under first-year head coach Marcus Freeman — but the 36-year-old may experience growing pains in learning these new responsibilities. He was the Irish’s head coach in the Fiesta Bowl when they blew a 28-7 first-half lead. Eight starters return on defense from a group that ranked 15th in the nation by allowing just 19.7 PPG — but they fall to 43rd in the country in giving up 359.5 total YPG so this may be an overrated group that got exposed by the Cowboys in the bowl game. The loss of safety Kyle Hamilton to the NFL will really hurt. On offense, Freeman has tapped sophomore Tyler Buchner as his starting quarterback. He is a dual-threat QB who too often wanted to run the ball in his time on the field last season. Accuracy is an issue for him — as well as three interceptions in his 35 pass attempts. To compete with the Buckeyes, he will need to be productive with the passing game — and that is a skill set he has yet to demonstrate at a high level. He does have the best tight end in the nation in All-American Michael Mayer — but the Irish lack explosive talent at wide receiver to complement his skills. Senior Avery Davis is out the year with a torn ACL. Perhaps sophomore Lorenzo Styles has a breakout season? It is the lack of skill position talent that played a role in Brian Kelly defecting to LSU before the bowl game. And it is this perpetual lack of top-end talent that explains why Notre Dame tends to fall flat against elite competition after beating up on their usual schedule of Purdue, Navy, and Boston College. The Fighting Irish have lost ten straight games on the road against top-ten teams with an average losing margin of -16.4 PPG. They have lost 11 games in a row on the road against top-five opponents with an average losing margin of -19.6 PPG — and seven of those losses were by 17 or more points. Notre Dame just seems to hit a ceiling against the best teams in the nation. They lost at home to Cincinnati by a 24-13 score last year. They lost 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game in 2020 before getting smoked by Alabama in the Playoff Semifinals by a 31-14 score. They got crushed in Ann Arbor against Michigan by a 45-14 score in 2019. They lost to Clemson in the Playoff Semifinals in 2018 by a 30-3 score. Even in 2018 at Miami (FL), they lost by a 41-8 score. This team is no stranger to blowout losses. They have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 road games with the total set in the 56.5 to 63 range. And they may be without their potential All-American center Jarrett Patterson who is dealing with a foot sprain. He was limited in practice this week and is listed as questionable.

FINAL TAKE: Two intangibles favor Ohio State. Knowles was the defensive coordinator for Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl — so not only did he prep extensively against the Irish but the early failures of his defense will remain fresh in his mind. Notre Dame only scored seven points in the scorn half of that game. Additionally, Day has experience coaching against Freeman’s defense back in 2019 when the Irish played Cincinnati. The Buckeyes raced out to a 28-0 halftime lead before cruising to a 42-0 victory. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Month with the Ohio State Buckeyes (172) minus the points versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (171). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). THE SITUATION: Charlotte (0-0) returns 14 starters from last year’s team that finished 5-7. FAU (0-0) has 14 starters back as well from their team that finished 5-7 last year.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The 49ers need to improve a defensive unit that allowed 34.0 PPG and that ranked 120th in the FBS by giving up 465.0 total YPG — but head coach Will Nealy has reasons for optimism in his fourth year with the program. He brought a wily veteran with plenty of experience in the NFL and the FBS level in Greg Brown to coordinate his defense this season. Brown served as the defensive coordinator for Arizona in 2018 -- and he has over a decade of experience as a defensive coach in the NFL. He has experienced players that he should be able to coach up as eight seniors who played at least 250 snaps last year returned. Injuries did not help Charlotte’s cause last year with the team losing 46 total games to injuries from their starters. Getting Davondre “Tank” Robinson back at strong safety after the former East Carolina transfer suffered a season-ending biceps injury in Week One will help. Healy also brought in a four-year player in defensive end Amir Siddiq from Central Michigan to add a pass rush threat to a line that has two starts returning. He joins defensive end Markees Watts to give the team an intriguing pass rush combination who combined for ten sacks last year. The 49errs offense returns Chris Reynolds at quarterback for his sixth year with the program and his fifth as a starter. At this point, we know what we are going to get with the fifth-year starter (with the COVID season where no player lost eligibility). He completed 215 of 337 yards for 2648 yards — but the offense only scored 27.2 PPG which ranked 79th in the nation. Charlotte has palled 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. They have also played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63-point range. And in their last 7 games, as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points, they have played 5 of those games Under the Total. FAU returns eight starters from their offense that only scored 25.4 PPG last year, ranking 84th in the FBS. Former Miami (FL) quarterback N’Kosi Perry returns under center after he completed only 60.7% of his passes for 2771 yards. Perry has demonstrated flashes of brilliance in his career — but his inconsistency is why he lost the starting job with the Hurricanes and eventually transferred to a Group of Five program. He plays behind an offensive line that allowed 35 sacks last year. The Owls' defense gave up 409.2 total YPG last year (90th in the FBS) but they only gave up 25.8 PPG which was tied for 58th in the nation. Third-year head coach Willie Taggart retooled his defense by bringing in Todd Orlando as the new defensive coordinator after previous stints with USC, Texas, and the University of Houston. The veteran has six returning starters plus a slew of transfers led by sophomore linebacker Jamie Pettway from Missouri. FAU held their first eight opponents to only 21.5 PPG last year — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first half of the season. The Owls have also played 18 of their last 26 games at home Under the Total with the Total in the 56.5-63 point range — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total when favored by 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. FAU dominated Charlotte last year by a 38-9 score as a 6.5-point favorite on the road with that Total set at 58. Healy has probably reminded himself every day in the offseason that his team has a 6-3 record in the last two seasons if they do not allow more than 35 points — but they are 1-8 in their last nine games when their opponent scores more than 35 points. The 49ers need to control the clock to help Reynolds stay within striking distance. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Charlotte 49ers (301) and the Florida Atlantic Owls (302). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288) in the College Football National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: Georgia dominated a stout Wolverines team — they went into the locker room with a 27-3 lead. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after scoring at least 24 points in the first half in their last game. Georgia has one of the best defenses in college football in years — they held their opponents to just 9.6 Points-Per-Game and 259.4 total Yards-Per-Game this season. But the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. The Bulldogs are tough to beat when they have a strong offensive attack that comes close to matching their elite defense from season to season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread 22 of their last 32 games on the road after passing for at least 350 yards in their last contest. The X-factor for this Bulldogs’ team is having fourth-year junior J.T. Daniels as an option if Georgia falls behind early once again in this rematch of the SEC Championship Game. The former five-star USC recruit is a gunslinger who led the Bulldogs to a 4-0 record in his four starts last year with the team scoring 37.3 PPG. Daniels unlocks the big-play potential of this offense with his strong arm. Head coach Kirby Smart has been reluctant to turn to Daniels since it would throw fuel on the fire of a quarterback controversy — but that concern goes out the window in the final game of the season. Georgia has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. They have covered the point spread in all 5 of their games this season with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 15 games played on a neutral field when favored, the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. It is telling that the bookies installed Georgia as the small favorite. Outside the Sagarin Power Ratings (one I don’t pay much attention to, for what that is worth), most of the various power ranking systems conclude that the Bulldogs should be favored (by at least three points). While that does not mean everything to me, it does mean something. Alabama has probably played their best two games of the season in their last two in beating Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and then overwhelming Cincinnati. Do these two games represent the continued growth and development of this team under head coach Nick Saban? Sure, I give credit to Saban for having his team peaking at the right time. On other hand, college football teams tend to not play their best three games consecutively — so I do expect a performance that comes back down to the season-long numbers that the Crimson Tide demonstrated (that the power rankings systems are evaluating in listing them as a dog now). This Alabama team that survived close scares against LSU, Arkansas, Auburn, and Florida (and who lost to a backup quarterback leading Texas A&M) may not be able to help themselves from suffering a letdown. As it is, the Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 21 points. They raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead against the Bearcats — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after holding their last opponent to no more than three points in the first half of their last game. Alabama dominated Cincinnati in the ground game by rushing for 301 yards and outgaining them by +227 net rushing yards. But the Crimson Tide have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. Alabama dominated the Bearcats by outgaining them by +264 net yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +175 net yards. The Crimson Tide has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in January (when they tend to be overvalued by the betting public) — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 appearances in the National Championship Game. Alabama has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field as an underdog of three points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia will have an extra edge on their mind in wanting revenge from their 41-21 upset loss as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Remember, the Bulldogs did not need to win that game — so some of their best plays and concepts (especially on defense) were held back in case of this rematch. Alabama had to leave everything on the table in that game. Georgia has covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 road games when avenging an upset loss to their opponent. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Georgia Bulldogs (287) minus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). THE SITUATION: Georgia (13-1) reached the National Championship Game with their 34-11 victory against Michigan in the CFP Semifinals as a 7.5-point favorite on December 31st. Alabama (13-1) joined them in the Finals by winning their eighth game in a row with their 27-7 victory against Cincinnati as a 12.5-point favorite on the last day of 2021. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I think the most important evidence in assessing the Over/Under proposition for this game is a quote from Nick Saban when assessing the philosophical shift he oversaw at Alabama in the last few seasons. Saban said: "It used to be if you had a good defense, other people weren't going to score. You were always going to be in the game. I'm telling you. It ain't that way anymore." When confronted with the must-win game for them in the SEC Championship Game against a Georgia defense some were describing as the best unit in college football in years, Saban took an aggressive stance against Kirby Smart’s defense. The Crimson Tide used pace to their advantage by averaging about one additional play for every two minutes their offense was on the field. While Alabama averaged 2.32 plays per minute during the regular season, they amped that up to 2.75 plays per minute against Georgia. The Tide raced out to a 24-17 lead at halftime which helped to get the Bulldogs out of rhythm — and they then controlled the second half. Saban has commented that recent rule changes make it tough even on the best defenses. Playing at a fast tempo puts defenses on their heels and prevents them from substituting players until there is a dead ball. Alabama is highly likely to deploy this strategy again. Against Cincinnati, the formula for success was running the football since the strength of the Bearcats defense was their secondary. The strength of the Bulldogs defense is their front seven — so going after their secondary makes sense. Quarterback Bryce Young passed for 421 yards against Georgia with a 9.64 Yards-Per-Attempt average with seven passes generating at least 20 yards. Granted, he had the services of junior wide receiver John Metchie who caught six passes in the first half before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Alabama still has an embarrassment of riches in talent at wide receiver — especially with some freshmen who have had more than a month to continue their development. The Crimson Tide was third in the nation by scoring 41.4 Points-Per-Game— they are prepared to survive high-scoring games. It is telling that Alabama has played 13 of their last 19 games Over the Total when playing in January. They have also played 33 of their last 55 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. Additionally, the Crimson Tide have played 15 of their last 22 games Over the Total after a win by at least 21 points. And while Alabama flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 218 total yards, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after holding their last opponent to no more than 225 total yards in their last game. The Crimson Tide has also played 12 of their last 16 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 10 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Georgia took a page out of the Alabama playbook by using tempo to put the Michigan defense on their heels early and often. the exciting dynamic for Bulldogs’ fans is the continued development of their offense with Stetson Bennett under center. The senior quarterback torched an outstanding Michigan defense by completing 20 of 30 passes for 313 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has improved to become much more than a game manager. In his last two games against Alabama and Michigan — two of the best defenses in the nation — Bennett has completed 49 of 78 passes for 653 yards and a robust 8.37 Yards-Per-Attempt average. He has six touchdown passes in those two games — and he adds a threat with his legs by running for 43 yards in those contests. It helps Bennett to have a loaded wide receiver corps bolstered by the return of junior George Pickens who missed most of the season after tearing his ACL in the spring. Bennett had eight receivers with multiple catches against the Wolverines. This is the approach I expect to see from the Bulldogs in this rematch — and I suspect Smart will think he needs to put 30 points on the scoreboard to win this game even with his elite defense. Georgia averaged 7.73 Yards-Per-Play against Michigan — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in their last game. And while the Bulldogs have generated 328 and 340 passing yards in their last two games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 325 yards in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: This is the second-lowest total in an Alabama game all season with the SEC Championship being the only game when the Tide had an Over/Under in the 40s. The Crimson Tide have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. I expect both teams to get at least into the mid-20s in what should be a fast-paced game. 25* CFB Total of the Month with Over the Total in the National Championship Game between the Georgia Bulldogs (287) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (288). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). THE SITUATION: Baylor (11-2) won their fourth straight game with their 21-16 upset victory as a 7-point underdog against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game on December 4th. Mississippi (10-2) is on a four-game winning streak with seven victories in their last eight game with their 31-21 upset win at Mississippi State as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th in the Egg Bowl. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a strong technical play — and we are getting some value with the number with bettors enamored with Lane Kiffin’s offensive acumen. Baylor has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Bears upset the Cowboys despite only gaining 242 total yards in the game — and they have played 8 straight Unders after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. They forced four turnovers to help them enjoy a +2 net turnover margin in that game — and they have played 6 straight Unders on the road after generating a +2 or better net turnover margin in their last game. Led by head coach Dave Aranda, Baylor allows only 19.2 PPG — and that number drops to 17.8 PPG they allowed in their six games played away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 16.7 PPG. Mississippi has played 7 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Rebels did allow 420 yards to the Bulldogs with 336 of those yards in the air. Ole Miss has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 yards in their last game. Despite those numbers, the Rebels’ defense has steadily improved as the season went on under defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin. Their bend-but-don’t-break 3-3-5 defense held their last three opponents to just 19.0 PPG. Mississippi only allowed three opponents to score more than 26 points against them — and that only happened once after October 9th. The Ole Miss scoring has been down as well — they have not scored more than 31 points in seven straight contests. The Rebels have played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total playing away from home when playing with at least two weeks in-between games. Ole Miss has played 4 straight Unders when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi has played 6 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Baylor has played 5 straight Unders against teams with a winning record — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Sugar Bowl between the Baylor Bears (283) and the Mississippi Rebels (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Georgia (12-1) looks to rebound from their 41-24 upset loss to Alabama as a 6-point favorite in the SEC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan (12-1) won their fifth straight game with their 42-3 victory against Iowa as an 11.5-point favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs had not allowed more than 17 points in all of their games this season before facing off against the Crimson Tide in SEC Championship Game. Alabama only averaged 4.4 Yards-Per-Carry in their rushing attack — but they shellshocked the Georgia defense behind the arm of quarterback Bryce Young who completed 26 of 44 passes for 421 yards with three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Only two other opponents passed for more than 214 yards against them this season. I do not see Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara being able to approach those numbers that won Young the Heisman Trophy. McNamara is a game-manager who did not attempt more than 17 passes in a game until the Wolverines’ fifth game in October — and that was influenced by the Wolverines’ inability to run the football at Wisconsin. Michigan has thrown the ball more than 38 times twice this season. They want to ground-and-pound — but good luck doing that against the Georgia defense that ranks third in the nation by allowing only 81.7 rushing yards per game — and held opposing rushers to just 2.6 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs’ defensive line is huge — they average a height of 6’4 with a weight of 307 points. The Wolverines want to run inside-zone blocking plays — but Georgia thrives when thwarting that approach. Georgia only allowed one team to gain more than 127 rushing yards this season — and that was a Florida team that lost 3-47 to the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs held eight of their opponents to under 10 points — and they shut out three teams. Michigan averages 5.3 YPC in their ground game — but Georgia has played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 4.75 YPC and they have played 6 straight Unders against opponents who average at least 5.25 YPC. Alabama only managed 115 rushing yards which were the most Georgia had allowed in four games. The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 125 rushing games in two straight games. Michigan offense slows down significantly if they cannot get their ground game going. They averaged only 2.6 YPC against Wisconsin but benefitted from three early turnovers to take control of that game. They only averaged 3.5 YPC against Penn State in a tense 21-17 victory in Happy Valley. They managed only 112 rushing yards from 38 carries for a 2.94 YPC average against Rutgers in a 20-13 win against a 5-7 Scarlet Knights team.

But this is also a flawed Georgia offense. They did not score an offensive touchdown against Clemson to open the season. And while they averaged 39.4 PPG for the season, the defenses in the SEC do not appear very stout in hindsight. Alabama was the best defense that the Bulldogs played after that opening game — and after scoring on two of their first three drives, Georgia failed to score on seven of their last nine drives despite trailing in the game. Quarterback Stetson Bennett is not nearly as effective when given a comfortable cushion on the scoreboard. Remove Alabama from consideration and the Michigan defense is better than all the other defenses in the SEC that the Bulldogs have played. They allowed only 16.1 PPG and 316.3 total YPG. Ohio State is the highest-rated scoring and yardage offense in the nation — but they only scored 27 points and ran for 64 yards despite trailing most of that game against the Wolverines. Michigan’s star safety Daxton Hill appears cleared to play tonight after being in the COVID protocols — reports from last night are that he participated in team meetings in Miami after not being with the team most of the week (and the updated CDC guidelines would have required him to be in quarantine if he was still symptomatic and lacked a negative COVID test). The Wolverines have played three straight Overs — but they have then played 14 of their last 21 games Under the Total after playing at least three straight Overs. And while Michigan has scored at least 42 points in three straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 8 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in three straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia has played 6 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Head coach Kirby Smart will want to run the football, limit mistakes, and lean on his outstanding defense that will be chippy to re-establish themselves after getting embarrassed by Alabama. The Bulldogs have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when favored on a neutral field by 7.5 to 10 points. Michigan’s offense can sputter — but they make big plays in their pass rush led by potential top-five pick Aidan Hutchinson. 25* CFB Playoff Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Georgia Bulldogs (269) and the Michigan Wolverines (270). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274) in the Cotton Bowl college football playoff semifinals. THE SITUATION: Cincinnati (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 35-20 victory against Houston in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game as a 10.5-point favorite on December 4th. Alabama (12-1) won their seventh straight game with a 41-24 victory against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game as a 6-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played on a neutral field at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARCATS PLUS THE POINTS: Alabama played the best game of their season to overwhelm the Bulldogs and secure their spot in the playoffs. Even with Nick Saban having four weeks to prepare for this game, a letdown is likely. The Crimson Tide is staring at a Group of Five opponent — even after Saban warning them how good this Bearcats team is. As it is, Alabama has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread win. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they raced out to a 24-17 halftime lead, Alabama has then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Generating a +2 net turnover edge in that game played a big role — but the Tide have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after enjoying a +2 or better net turnover advantage. This remains a team that was just 5-5 ATS against teams playing in bowl games this season. Besides losing to a multi-loss Texas A&M team using a backup quarterback, they survived one-possession games against LSU, Arkansas, Florida and a four-overtime affair with Auburn. Incidentally, they were laying at least 14.5 points as the favorite in all those games. Up until this point, this year’s incarnation is not as dominant as Saban’s National Championship group last season. The offensive line has been given up too many sacks — Bama ranks 67th in Sack Rate allowed and that drops to 75th on passing downs. The running back room is depleted with injures. Drives stall inside the 10-yard line given their ranking 66th in the nation in Goal-to-Go scoring rate. And there are some tough injuries on both sides of the ball with starting cornerback Josh Jobe out with a foot injury and wide receiver John Metchie out the season with the torn ACL he suffered against Georgia. Alabama may not have a reliable second option at receiver (even with all the young talent) to compliment Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. Cincinnati is loaded with talent in their secondary — headlined by three future NFL players in cornerbacks Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant along with safety Bryan Cook. This gives defensive coordinator Mike Tressel some intriguing matchup options. Tressel is one of the best in the business with an established track record as the defensive coordinator at Michigan State. He can do some things to make sophomore quarterback Bryce Young uncomfortable. Cincinnati has momentum with three straight point spread covers after their comfortable victory against a talented Cougars team. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after covering the point spread in two straight games. Despite being on offense for only 19:41 minutes, they averaged 8.89 Yards-Per-Play to generate 400 yards of offense against Houston — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. They held the Cougars to just 86 rushing yards in that game as well — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not allowing at least 100 rushing yards in their last game. The defense allows only 16.1 PPG. They are led by a four-year starting quarterback in Desmond Ridder who will be drafted into the NFL. The Bearcats have covered the point spread in 6 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games as an underdog. And in their last 6 games against non-conference opponents, they have covered the point spread in 5 of these games.

FINAL TAKE: Cincinnati has proven they can match the physicality of elite programs in their 24-13 victory against Notre Dame this season and their 3-point loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl last year. The Bearcats might have upset the Bulldogs last year if not for the first half injury to left tackle James Hudson — they surrendered six sacks in the second half. The Fighting Irish have only lost twice in South Bend in the last four seasons — to Georgia and this Cincinnati team. The Bearcats will not be intimidated. 25* CFB Game of the Month with the Cincinnati Bearcats (273) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260) in the Peach Bowl. THE SITUATION: Pittsburgh (11-2) is on a five-game winning streak after their 45-21 victory against Wake Forest as a 3.5-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 4th. Michigan State (10-2) won their second game in their last three games with their 30-27 upset win against Penn State as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS: Pittsburgh opened as a 4.5-point favorite before the news that quarterback Kenny Pickett would forego this game to prepare for the NFL draft. The Spartans are now laying about 3.5 points in most locations — and they will be without their top offensive player in running back Kenneth Walker who is opting out of this game to prepare for the NFL draft. So, is the value of Pickett worth 8 points plus the loss of Walker? I like Pickett — but I don’t think so. Let’s talk Pitt. They have a capable backup in redshirt junior Nick Patti who has been Pickett’s backup for three seasons. Patti completed 23 of 37 passes substituting for Pickett in September of his freshman year against Delaware in 2017 for 271 yards with two touchdown passes. Patti has completed 12 of 14 passes for 140 yards this season. In his career, Patti has completed 40 of 62 passes for a 64.5% completion percentage, a 10.0 Yards-Per-Attempt mark, and only one interception. A key tell regarding how Pitt feels about him was on a fourth-and-one in the second half against Virginia when Pickett had to leave the field because of a short-term injury. Rather than kick a field goal or dial up a running play, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple trusted Patti to deliver a pass — and he drew a pass interference penalty for the first down. Patti has practiced with the first-team offense preparing for this game — and that includes Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison who caught 93 balls for 1479 yards and 17 touchdowns. Patti should have success against a Spartans defense that ranked 106th in Pass Success Rate Allowed. Pitt has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by 17 or more points. The Panthers have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while they held the Demon Deacons to just 295 yards on a just 3.47 Yards-Per-Play — and they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 3.75 Yards-Per-Play in their last game. Michigan State relied on Walker to take almost 60% of their rushing attempts this season — he averaged a robust 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Freshman Jordan Simmons averages 4.2 YPC — but he is a dropoff. The Spartans will struggle to run the football against this stout Panthers' run defense that ranked fifth in the nation by allowing just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. Pitt has had a top-ten run defense for two straight seasons under head coach Pat Narduzzi — and they have held their last six opponents to under 3.0 YPC. Michigan State quarterback Payton Thorne has not been as effective when relied on to be the primary source of the offense. He comes off his two worst games this season in a drubbing against Ohio State before their upset win against Penn State. Pro Football Focus gave him grades below 60 for both games — and he had three turnover-worthy plays with zero Big Time Throws in those contests. Sparty relies on big plays — Thorne had a PFF rating of 92.0 on throws of at least air yards. But on throws less than 20 air yards, his PFF grade drops to 72.0 (C- range if graded by a teacher). The Panthers rank a solid 36th in the nation in Pass Explosiveness Allowed. Michigan State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 games after an upset win at home. They are also just 3-8-2 ATS in their last 13 games after a point spread win.

FINAL TAKE: The Spartans have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams outside the ACC. Look for the Panthers to be inspired to prove they were more than just a Heisman Trophy Finalist at quarterback — and Narduzzi would love to beat his old team where he served as defensive coordinator for years. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Pittsburgh Panthers (259) plus the points versus the Michigan State Spartans (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 5:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251) in the Cheez-It Bowl. THE SITUATION: Clemson (9-3) won their fifth straight game to close out the regular season with a 30-0 victory at South Carolina as an 11.5-point favorite on November 27th. Iowa State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak with their 48-14 victory against TCU as a 16-point favorite on November 26th. This game will be played on a neutral field at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Clemson took a step back this season due to the drop-off in play at quarterback. Sophomore D.J. Uiagalelei struggled to fill the big shoes left by Trevor Lawrence who left for the NFL after his junior season. Yet the Tigers got their offense going late in the season by scoring at least 30 points in each of their games during their five-game winning streak. Led by the running back duo of Kobe Pace and Will Shipley, Clemson became run-focused who averaged 171 rushing YPG for the season with 598 rushing yards in their last two contests. And the Tigers defense remained elite all season — they allowed only 15.0 Points-Per-Game and 309.3 total Yards-Per-Game. The Clemson defense ranked third in the nation in Rush Success Rate allowed and third in Finishing Drives. They also only allowed eight “explosive” drives that averaged at least 10 Yards-Per-Play in the 154 drives they defended. Head coach Dabo Swinney lost both his coordinators, Tony Elliott and Brent Venables, to head coaching jobs at Virginia and Oklahoma — but he promoted from within with assistants very familiar with the schemes and hungry to make an impression. None of Swinney’s players opted out for this bowl game — this is the first game of the 2021-22 season for this group who should be very motivated. The Tigers should continue to build off their momentum as they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games after a win by 20 or more points — and they have covered the point spread in 18 of their last 26 games after a point spread win. Clemson has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored. Iowa State had high expectations but those dreams were snatched from early losses to Iowa and Baylor in their first four games. They crushed the Horned Frogs to end their regular season — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win and they are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a win by 20 or more points. Furthermore, the Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Iowa State offense will be without star running back Breece Hall who has opted out for the NFL draft. The Cyclones are left with just sophomore Jirehl Brock at running back who averaged only 2.1 yards after contact in a disappointing campaign this season. Senior quarterback Brock Purdy was also underwhelming this year — he had 11 turnover-worthy plays and fumbled the football another seven times. He was sacked 21 times behind an offensive line that ranked only 47th in Havoc Rate Allowed — a frightening number when facing this elite Clemson defensive line. The Cyclones defense ranked outside the top-70 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed — and they were 74th in Pass Success Rate Allowed on passing downs. Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against teams with a winning record  — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December -- and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field. Clemson has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 16 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 bowl games. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN Game of the Year with the Clemson Tigers (252) minus the point(s) versus the Iowa State Cyclones (251). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218) in the New Orleans Bowl. THE SITUATION: Marshall (7-5) has lost two of their last three games after a 53-21 loss to Western Kentucky as a 1-point underdog on November 27th. UL-Lafayette (12-1) won the Sun Belt Championship Game with their 24-16 upset win against Appalachian State as a 2.5-point underdog on December 4th. This game will be played at the Caesar’s Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: Marshall should play well after their embarrassing loss to the Hilltoppers. They have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after a loss by 21 or more points against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after a loss by 28 or more points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Allowing Western Kentucky to score on a 43-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and a 45-yard interception return for a touchdown did not help the Marshall cause under rookie head coach Charlies Huff. Despite their 7-5 record, this team is outscoring their opponents by +11.2 net Points-Per-Game and outgaining them by +82.8 net Yards-Per-Game. In their six games away from home, the Thundering Herd outscored their opponents by +16.5 PPG and +62.0 net YPG. Led by second-year freshman quarterback Grant Wells, the Thundering Herd ranks 27th in the nation in Success Rate on offense. UL-Lafayette finally beat their White Whale in Appalachian State in a conference championship game after falling twice against them prior under head coach Billy Napier. Their head coach has since moved on to Gainesville to begin his journey as the head coach for the University of Florida — and he took a handful of assistants with him including defensive coordinator Patrick Toney. Co-offensive coordinator Michael Desormeaux takes over as the interim head coach. I suspect an emotional letdown is coming for a team that appeared disinterested at times after losing their opener to Texas. The following week, they only beat Nicholls State by three points. They later defeated South Alabama, Arkansas State, Georgia State, and UL-Monroe by five points or less despite being a double-digit favorite on each occasion. As it is, the Ragin’ Cajuns have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after an upset win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Louisiana has not committed a turnover in four straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after not committing a turnover in at least three straight games. Running back Chris Smith is another key piece to the team that won the conference title who will not be in the Big Easy as he has opted-out of this game. This is a team that has not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Conference USA opponents. The Ragin’ Cajuns have not covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Louisiana has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played on a neutral field. Marshall has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games on a neutral field as an underdog getting up to seven points. The Thundering Herd have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 bowl games. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (217) plus the points versus the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201) in the Bahamas Bowl. THE SITUATION: Middle Tennessee (6-6) became bowl eligible to conclude their regular season with a 27-17 win at FAU as a 3.5-point underdog on November 27th. Toledo (7-5) is on a three-game winning streak after a 49-14 win against Akron as a 28.5-point favorite on November 27th. This game is being played on a neutral field at Thomas Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLUE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS: Middle Tennessee lost four of their first six games before salvaging their season by winning four of their last six games. Head coach Rick Stockstill hit the transfer portal in the offseason to inject more talent into what has been a sleepy program as of late. But his teams typically end strong — the Blue Raiders have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games in the second half of the season. They outscored their last three opponents by +14.3 net Points-Per-Game and they outgained these foes by +94.0 net Yards-Per-Game. Stabilizing play at quarterback has been a season-long journey. Former NC State QB Bailey Hockman left the team in September after having a baby. Redshirt junior QB Chase Cunningham suffered a season-ending leg injury in early November. Freshman QB Nicholas Vattiato started the final four games — and after a rough debut at Western Kentucky, he has since completed 63 of 89 passes for 553 yards with three touchdown passes and only one interception in his last three games. He was benched for sophomore Mike Diliello in the game against the Owls — and it was Diliello who led the comeback win by completing 12 of 19 passes for 131 yards with a touchdown pass. Diliello adds mobility to the offense — he ran 12 times for 43 yards with a touchdown. Both QBs hold play this afternoon — and a quarterback competition in a bowl game building into the following season is not a bad thing in these situations. Middle Tennessee is a good defensive team — they rank 24th in the nation by allowing only 5.1 Yards-Per-Play. The Blue Raiders also rank sixth in the nation by averaging +0.92 net turnovers per game. And while fumble luck played a role, the Middle Tennessee defense was fifth in the nation by picking off 16 passes. The Blue Raiders did not force a turnover in their win at FAU — but they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Toledo failed to meet their high expectations this season after returning 21 starters. They were 0-4 in one-possession games. So while this could have been a 10-win team, how motivated will this group be in Bahamas now? As it is, they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win against a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a point spread win. And while the Rockets outgained the Zips by +217 net yards by generating 582 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +225 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after gaining at least 475 yards. Toledo has also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Rockets have failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after winning at least three games in a row. Toledo is a program that is just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 bowl games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Middle Tennessee is playing in their first bowl game since 2018 — and they have not won a bowl game since 2017. They are a team looking to build momentum into next season while this is a coda for many of these Rocket players. High winds up to 15 miles per hour will likely contribute to chaos — and chaos tends to help big underdogs. 10* CFB Toledo-Middle Tennessee ESPN Special with the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (202) plus the points versus the Toledo Rockets (201). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311) in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (11-1) has won 11 straight games after their 21-16 win against UL-Monroe as a 21.5-point favorite on Saturday. Appalachian State (10-2) has won six straight games after their 27-3 win against Georgia Southern as a 24.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAGIN’ CAJUNS PLUS THE POINTS: This will be head coach Billy Napier’s last game with Louisiana before he takes on his new job as head coach of the Florida Gators. Napier has been pulling double-duty this week getting his new staff together in Gainesville while beginning his recruiting for Florida — and that may scare off some bettors. His coordinators are still on the case for this game — and Napier is quite familiar with Appalachian State. I see things in the opposite way — this contest offers Napier and his players the culmination of a long journey where beating the Mountaineers in the championship game and winning a Sun Belt championship is the final goal for this program. The Ragin’ Cajuns have lost twice to Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game under Napier before not getting the chance to play for the title last season against Coastal Carolina due to a COVID outbreak canceling the game. UL-Louisiana has appeared to lack motivation at times this season. They have five wins against inferior opponents by just one scoring possession — however, they also crushed Appalachian State and Liberty in statement victories by 28 points apiece. Being listed as the underdog should stick anger them — and they have pulled the upset in five of their last seven games in the role of the underdog under Napier. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. They get to host this game where they are 6-0 with an average winning margin of +20.0 Points-Per-Game and a ++143.8 net Yards-Per-Game mark. The Ragin’ Cajuns hold their guest to just 14.0 PPG and 301.5 net YPG. They have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games as an underdog. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 10 points in their last game against a conference opponent. They held the Eagles to just 194 yards last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. And in their last 12 games after winning at least five straight games, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 10 of these games. The Mountaineers play on the road for this contest — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: UL-Lafayette finally defeated Appalachian State last December in a regular-season game to avenge those two previous losses in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game in 2018 and 2019. The Ragin’ Cajuns followed that up with a 41-13 throttling of the Mountaineers at home on October 12th this season in a game where they outgained them by +244 yards despite being a +4.5-point underdog. Appalachian State has revenge on their minds — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when avenging an upset loss. The dog has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in this series. The Louisiana players love Napier — I think they play hard for him today in a program-defining moment. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (312) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (311). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303) in Conference USA Championship Game. THE SITUATION: UTSA (11-1) comes off their first loss of the season last week in a 45-23 upset loss at North Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. Western Kentucky (8-4) has won seven straight games after their 53-21 win at Marshall as a 1-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ROADRUNNERS PLUS THE POINTS: UTSA had little at stake last week after clinching the opportunity to host this conference championship game the previous week with a 34-31 victory against UAB. While a perfect record would be nice for head coach Jeff Traylor, the most important goals are winning the first conference championship in program history and then winning the first bowl game in conference history. After committing some early turnovers in bad weather in Denton last week, Traylor pulled his starters with the writing on the wall for that game (against a Mean Green team motivated to become bowl eligible) to rest for this showdown. UTSA should respond with a strong effort. The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a loss by at least 20 points. UTSA has also covered the point spread in 6 straight games after a loss to a conference rival. Now the Roadrunners return home where they are 6-0 this season with an average winning margin of +22.2 net Points-Per-Game. They outgain their visitors by +162.0 net Yards-Per-Game because of their defense that holds these guests to just 13.0 PPG and 239.5 total YPG. UTSA has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Roadrunners bring a balanced offense into this game led by quarterback Frank Harris and running back Sincere Mitchell. Harris is a dual-threat who is completing 66.3% of his passes — and he has 23 touchdown passes to just five interceptions. McCormick has rushed for more than 1000 yards in two straight seasons. UTSA has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 16 games as an underdog. Western Kentucky has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after a win on the road in conference play. With their new Air Raid offense this season led by quarterback Bailey Zappe, the Hilltoppers are second in the nation by scoring 43.2 PPG. But UTSA has seen this offense already in their 52-46 victory at Western Kentucky as a 3.5-point underdog on October 9th. The Hilltoppers’ defense is a concern as they are tied for 87th in the nation by allowing 407.6 total Yards-Per-Game. Their ability to stop the pass is the biggest concern as they rank 113th in the nation by allowing 261.9 passing YPG. Harris completed 28 of 38 passes for 349 yards with six touchdown passes in the first meeting. Western Kentucky is surviving high-scoring games with their last four contests seeing at least 63 combined points — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games after playing at least four straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored.

FINAL TAKE: Western Kentucky is the trendy pick in this game because of the revenge angle and that they have lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession — and UTSA has won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But don’t underestimate the confidence of an older team in their ability to win close games — especially when they are playing at home (and at night). The Roadrunners have covered the point spread in 5 straight games when listed in the +/- 3-point range. 25* CFB Conference USA Game of the Year with the UTSA Road Runners (304) plus the points versus the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). THE SITUATION: California (4-6) has won three of their last four games with their 41-11 victory at Stanford last week as a 2.5-point favorite. UCLA (7-4) has won two in a row with their 62-33 win at USC as a 4.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GOLDEN BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Cal is playing their best football of the season — and they should build off their momentum tonight. The Golden Bears have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by 20 or more points. Cal got their senior quarterback Chase Garbers back last week after he was injured for their previous game against Arizona when the team was hit hard by COVID in a 10-3 upset loss. The Bears had over 20 players out for that game with the Wildcats. Now with four wins and with their postponed game with USC on deck next week, bowl eligibility remains a real possibility. Garbers completed 17 of 26 passes for 246 yards with two touchdown passes — and he added another 59 rushing yards on the ground. Garbers has posted a QBR of 82 or better in each of his last three starts with seven touchdown passes and one interception. Cal gained 636 yards in the win against the Cardinal — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Golden Bears gained 325 of those yards on the ground — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Cal’s defense has played better as of late as well — they have held their last three opponents to just 15.3 PPG and 330.0 total Yards-Per-Game. Cal has been a very tough underdog over the years as they are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 13 road games as a dog. The Golden Bears have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 road games against teams with a winning record at home. UCLA comes off the rivalry game win against USC —  but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after a win by 20 or more points. The Bruins have won and covered the point spread as a favorite in their last two games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after covering their last two games as the favorite. Dorian Thompson-Robinson completed 16 of 22 passes for 349 yards in the win last week — but they are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. But the play of the defense has regressed as of late. In their last three games, UCLA has allowed 32.3 PPG and 437.3 total YPG. The Bruins rank just 112th in the nation in Opponent’s Rush Success Rate. UCLA hosts this game at home in the Rose Bowl — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 14 home games when favored.

FINAL TAKE: Five of Cal’s six losses have been by one scoring possession. They have covered the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record. UCLA’s motivation for this game is questionable after their rivalry game and a bowl game clinched but with no chance of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game next week. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the California Golden Bears (201) plus the points versus the UCLA Bruins (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). THE SITUATION: Boston College (6-5) had their two-game winning streak snapped with their 26-23 upset loss to Florida State as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Wake Forest (9-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 48-27 loss at Clemson as a 3.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS: Boston College fell behind in the first half and went into the locker room with a 19-3 deficit before rallying to pull within three points with 10 minutes left to go in the game. But the Eagles could not score again to get upset by the Seminoles. That was the first loss for this team with a healthy Phil Jurkovec under center. Boston College is significantly better when he is leading the offense. Jurkovec averages 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game while generating 6.6 Yards-Per-Carry when rushing out of the backfield. The Eagles should bounce back this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 19 games after suffering an upset loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after by three points or less. Boston College gets to host this game in the cold weather where they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games. Furthermore, the Eagles have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when getting up to 7 points as a home dog. The Boston College defense will play a big role in this showdown in slowing down the Demon Deacons’ quarterback Sam Hartman. The Eagles rank 26th in opponent’s Pass Success Rate — and they limit their opponents to just 6.8 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game, ranking 33rd in the nation. Boston College holds their guests to just 19.2 PPG and 312.2 total YPG at home. Wake Forest has the pressure of needing to win this game to clinch their spot in the ACC Championship Game against Pittsburgh next week. While Hartman has led a powerful offense, it is the subpar play of the Demon Deacons’ defense that has exposed them against Clemson and North Carolina earlier this month. The Tigers rank just 117th in the nation in Pass Success Rate but were able to torch the Wake Forest defense for 10.5 Yards-Per-Attempt in the passing game and 543 total yards of offense. Clemson averaged 7.33 Yards-Per-Play last week — and the Demon Deacons have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight road games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Hartman tried to keep up as he completed 27 of 43 passes for 312 yards — but Wake Forest has failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Hartman has been pressing with the defense being so easy to score on — he has six interceptions in his last three games. The Demon Deacons allow 30.8 PPG and 449.8 total YPG — and it is even worse away from home as they surrender 43.2 PPG and 540.8 total YPG in their five road games. Predictably, Wake Forest is 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Demon Deacons are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 road games when favored by 3.5 to 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Besides the opportunity to play the role of spoiler to Wake Forest’s ACC title chances, Boston College can avenge their 27-24 loss at home to the Demon Deacons on September 28th, 2019 in the last meeting between these two teams. Hartman quarterbacking in the cold Boston weather against an Eagles team that will score points may be too much to ask for the NFL prospect. 25* CFB ACC Underdog of the Year with the Boston College Eagles (162) plus the points versus the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (161). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). THE SITUATION: Washington State (6-5) has won two of their last three games with their 44-19 win against Arizona as a 15-point favorite last Friday. Washington (4-7) has lost three in a row after a 20-17 upset loss as a 6.5-point favorite on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This year’s version of the Apple Cup will feature two defensive coordinators serving as interim head coaches for programs working through a tumultuous season. Given some weather conditions that I will detail in the Final Take, I expect both teams to embrace a conservative defensive mentality in this rivalry game. Washington State has run the ball more since Jake Dickert was given the head coaching duties. In his four games, the Cougars had their first and third-highest rushing games in terms of attempts with 42 carries against Arizona State and 36 carries last week against the Wildcats — and this is despite them ranking 71st in the nation in Rushing Success Rate. As a defensive coach, Dickert appreciates the benefits running the ball does for his defense. They have held three of these four opponents to no more than 21 points after allowing 24 or more points in six of their first seven games. When now facing an outstanding Huskies secondary filled with future NFL players who rank fifth in the nation in Opposing Pass Success Rate and third in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grading, Washington State will likely run the ball plenty tonight — and burn time off the clock limited offensive possessions along the way. The Cougars did gain 482 yards last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Washington State has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cougars score only 23.0 PPG and average 355.3 total YPG on the road. Washington has played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by a touchdown or less against Pac-12 rivals. The Huskies held the Buffaloes to 183 yards in the loss last week. The Under is 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Washington allows only 21.1 PPG and 325.9 total YPG on the season. But despite quarterback Dylan Morris passing for 387 yards, his two interceptions played a large role in their scoring just 17 points. The Huskies average just 1.4 Yards-Per-Carry. With this being the team’s final game, interim head coach Bob Gregory may give playing time to freshman QB Sam Huard. Either way, expect more long drives from an offense that ranks outside the top-115 in Standard Down Explosiveness, Rushing Explosiveness, and Passing Explosiveness. Washington is scoring only 21.0 PPG and averaging 286.0 total YPG in their last three games. They have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. They return home where they have played 20 of their last 27 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 42.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: There is a 50% chance for rain in Seattle for this game which will likely hurt the passing game for both teams. I suspect both defensive coaches will not take as many chances throwing the ball in the rain. And if you watched Washington play in Ann Arbor in the rain against Michigan earlier this year, you witnessed how ineffective Morris and their receivers were dealing with a wet football. These two teams have played 7 of their last 10 meetings at Washington Under the Total. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Washington State Cougars (141) and the Washington Huskies (142). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). THE SITUATION: East Carolina (7-4) has won four games in a row with their 38-35 win at Navy as a 3.5-point favorite last Saturday. Cincinnati (11-0) continued their unbeaten season with their 48-14 victory against SMU as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE PIRATES PLUS THE POINTS: The Bearcats made a statement with their emphatic 34-point victory against a quality Mustangs team that entered that game with an 8-2 record. Cincinnati now finds themselves in the College Football Playoff top-four rankings this week — and they are locked into the American Athletic Conference Championship Game next week against Houston. Alas, the Bearcats walk into this emotional letdown and a look-ahead spot against the Pirates. Now road favorites still manage to cover all the time in these situations — so the issue becomes how vulnerable is Cincinnati in this spot and how dangerous of an underdog is East Carolina. On Issue One, the Bearcats are vulnerable to letdowns. They have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after winning two games in a row against conference foes. They have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after winning at least seven in a row. And while they have gained at least 506 yards in their last two games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 475 yards in two straight contests. They held the Mustangs pass offense to just 66 yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. The Bearcats have experienced scares from some middle-of-the-road conference opponents. They only beat Navy on the road by a touchdown. They defeated Tulsa at home by eight points. While they are scoring 40.0 PPG and averaging 429.7 total YPG, those numbers drop by a touchdown and more than 60 total YPG to 33.0 PPG and 368.4 total YPG marks when playing on the road. They also allow just under 26 more YPG away from home. Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when laying 7.5 to 14 points. On Issue Two, East Carolina does have the pedigree of a dangerous but under-appreciated opponent. After a 3-6 campaign last year, head coach Mike Houston had 20 starters return for what is likely his best roster in his three years with the program. They are playing their best football at this point of the season having outscored their last three opponents by +15.4 PPG and outgaining them by +208.5 net YPG. After opening the season with understandable losses at Appalachian State and home to South Carolina, they have pulled off three upset victories against Memphis, Marshall, and Tulane. They lost on the road to Houston in overtime. They enter this game with momentum — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win. They generated 563 yards against the Midshipmen last week while outgaining them by +181 net yards. The Pirates are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games after gaining at least 450 yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards. Quarterback Holton Ahlers completed 27 of 32 passes for 405 yards with three touchdown passes in the win last week. He leads an offense scoring 37.7 PPG and generating 505.5 total YPG in their last three games. He can keep East Carolina competitive in this contest with his deep balls — he leads an offense that ranks 18th in the nation in Explosiveness. The Bearcats have played only two teams ranked in the top-25 in Offensive Explosiveness — and they rank 71st in the Pass Defense Explosiveness. The Pirates are 4-1 at home at Dowdy-Ficken Stadium where they outscore their opponents by +16.0 PPG. East Carolina has an underrated defense that holds their visitors to just 18.8 PPG -- and they have held their last three opponents to just 22.3 PPG and 297.0 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: East Carolina had 21 first-time starters last season, the fifth-most in the nation. The fruits of that commitment to go young are coming into place now. The Pirates have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 conference games. Lastly, East Carolina is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as a dog getting 10.5 to 21 points. Yes, this is a dangerous team. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the East Carolina Pirates (156) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). THE SITUATION: UAB (7-3) has won four of their last five games with their 21-14 upset win at Marshall as a 4.5-point underdog last Saturday. UTSA (10-0) continued their unbeaten season with a 27-13 win against Southern Mississippi as a 32.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Blazers controlled the clock by being on offense for 37:43 minutes last week which helped them hold the Thundering Herd to just 269 total yards to help them pull off the upset. That will be the formula for success again today for head coach Bill Clark. UAB has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Blazers have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have played 13 of their last 17 road games Under the Total after not allowing more than 14 points in their last game. UAB leads Conference USA by allowing only 320.2 total YPG and 4.9 Yards-Per-Play. In their six road games, the Blazers are allowing just 16.2 PPG and 280.7 total YPG. The Blazers have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total -- and they have played 4 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, the Under is 15-5-1 in UAB’s last 21 games as an underdog — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. UTSA has not allowed more than 17 points in three of their last four games. The Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 games after a straight-up win. The Roadrunners held the Golden Eagles to just 189 yards of offense — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The UTSA defense has been particularly tough at home where they hold their guests to just 9.4 PPG and 192.6 total YPG. The Roadrunners have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total at home — and they have played 6 straight Unders at home with the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. UTSA is fourth in the nation by holding their opponents to just 2.7 rushing Yards-Per-Carry. They will make thinks difficult on the Blazers who only average 85th in the nation by averaging 213 passing YPG — and UAB is just 56th in Passing Success Rate. The Roadrunners have played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total when favored.

FINAL TAKE: UTSA clinches a spot in the Conference USA Championship Game with a win — but UAB is still alive to defend their conference title just one game behind the Roadrunners in the West Division. The Blazers defeated UTSA last year by a 21-13 score in Birmingham as a 21.5-point favorite on October 3rd. UAB has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 6-2-1 in UTSA’s last 9 games against teams with winning records. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (409) and the UTSA Roadrunners (410). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). THE SITUATION: Central Michigan (6-4) has won four of their last five games after their 54-30 win against Kent State as a 2.5-point favorite last Wednesday. Ball State (5-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 30-29 upset loss at Northern Illinois as a 3-point favorite on Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Chippewas generated 505 yards against the Golden Flashes last week with quarterback Daniel Richardson completing 21 of 27 passes for 268 yards with four touchdown passes. But Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points in their last game — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Chippewas are scoring 32.8 PPG and averaging 447.5 total YPG — but those numbers drop by -6.0 PPG and -39.7 YPG in their five games on the road. Central Michigan has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road. They have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total when favored. Ball State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they allowed 475 yards to the Huskies last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Despite returning 20 starters from the squad that won the Mid-American Championship last season, head coach Mike Neu has found things more difficult this year back to a full conference schedule after the COVID-shortened campaign last season. After scoring 34.2 PPG last year, the Cardinals are scoring only 25.6 PPG this year — that number drops to 22.2 PPG at home in their four games. They rank 106th in the nation by averaging 347.2 total YPG — and they averaging -19.2 fewer YPG at home. Third-year starting quarterback Drew Plitt leads an offense that is averaging just 206.0 passing YPG this season, ranking 96th in the nation. He has passed for less than 200 yards in two straight games as Neo pivots the offense around freshman running back Carson Steele. Ball State has rushed for at least 200 yards in three of their last four games. Continuing this ground attack will not exploit the vulnerable Chippewas ‘ pass defense that ranks 122nd in the nation by allowing 280.5 passing YPG. Central Michigan does defend the run well after returning ten starters from a defense that ranked ninth in the nation last year by holding their opponents to 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. The Chippewas are holding conference opponents to 3.8 YPC this year. The high-risk/high-reward aggressive tactics under head coach Jim McElwain is giving up too many big plays in the passing game — but Central Michigan does rank in the top ten in the nation in Tackles for Loss fueled by their 27 sacks. The Cardinals rushed for 246 yards last week — and they have played 4 straight Unders after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Ball State returns home where they have played 6 straight Unders — and they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Weather looks to play a role tonight with rain expected with winds in the 10-15 miles-per-hour range. The kicking and passing games may be negatively impacted. The Chippewas have played 6 of their last 8 road games Under the Total with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range — and the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total with the Total set in that 56.5 to 63 range. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Central Michigan Chippewas (307) and the Ball State Cardinals (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.