At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, January 13th, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284) in the National Championship Game. THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE CLEMSON PLUS THE POINTS: The various Power Ranking quantitive analytical forecasts for this game have things closer to a pick ‘em — LSU entered the playoffs overvalued and those inclinations were rewarded with their blowout victory over the Sooners. Both semifinals games were an interesting example of how one or two big plays can dramatically swing the balance of the game. Clemson was on the verge of being blown out by the Buckeyes before a targeting penalty was called on a questionable hit on quarterback Trevor Lawrence. That resurrected a dead drive which the Tigers then scored a touchdown to completely reverse the momentum of that game. Oklahoma might have seen the same fortune if an obvious pass interference call was made to sustain an early drive for them — instead, the refs missed it and a frustrated defense was soon called for targeting themselves which not only fueled another LSU touchdown but resulted in an undermanned Sooners’ defense seeing a key defensive back ejected from the game. And the route was on. LSU has now covered the point spread in three straight games after gaining a whopping 532 total yards against an Oklahoma defense missing several key pieces via team suspension and then that in-game ejection. But LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 19 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in at least three straight games. I am still not sold on this LSU defense that has surrendered 29.3 PPG along with 429.6 total YPG in their seven games away from home. They held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG but those games were against a tapped-out Texas A&M team along with an offensively-challenged Georgia group before the Sooners. LSU allowed more than 450 yards in four of their games with Texas, Florida, Ole Miss, and Alabama all scoring at least 28 points against them. Clemson took their first big punch to the mouth this season but got off the mat to defeat an Ohio State team I think is at least as talented as LSU. The quants that measure in-season performance mostly rated Ohio and LSU as the better team — but those quantitative assessments do not take into account anything from last season. Dabo Swinney returned twelve starters from last year’s perfect 15-0 national champion squad including is a phenom at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. I am just not going to hand out any demerits for the Tigers' failure to overly impress the College Football Playoff committee by failing to generate enough style points against teams like Syracuse and North Carolina early in their schedule. Given that Clemson was likely to reach the playoff even if they suffered an early-season loss, it was reasonable for Swinney to prime his team to play their best football in the second half of the season. Clemson has now allowed only 42 combined points in their last three playoff games over the last two seasons. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games in December — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 bowl games. Clemson has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 22 games against teams with a winning record including their last seven contests against winners — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams with a winning percentage of 75% or higher. The Tigers are rarely the underdog — but they have covered the point spread in 37 of their last 55 games when getting points. Swinney’s teams at Clemson have also covered the point spread in 8 of their 9 postseason games as an underdog while pulling the upset six times. Additionally, Clemson has covered the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games on a neutral field as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: LSU will have a geographical advantage with this game being played 81.3 miles away from their Baton Rouge campus. I just do not assign much value at all to the potential crowd noise that a team may enjoy on a neutral field. The familiar environment along with the routine of being at home play as much (or more) of a role for home-field advantage than potential crowd noise — especially in a dome where the audience cheering and yelling tends to get drowned out. However, I think the championship experience that this Clemson team enjoys over LSU’s players and coaching staff gives them another big edge. 25* CFB National Championship Game *A-List* Special with the Clemson Tigers (283) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship game for the second straight season with their 29-23 win over Ohio State on December 28th as a 2.5-point favorite. LSU (14-0) joined them earlier that day with their 63-28 blowout win over Oklahoma as a 16.5-point favorite. This game will be played on a neutral field in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The offenses are getting all the headlines — and most of the bettor’s attention with the Total approaching the 70 threshold — yet I think both defenses of these teams are being under-appreciated. Clemson surrendered 516 yards of offense to Ohio State but it was their ability thwart three Red Zone trips by the Buckeyes in the first half of that showdown which kept the Tigers in that game. After giving up 16 points in the first 22:20 minutes of that game, the Tigers only gave up one final touchdown over the remaining 37:40 minutes of that game. Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venerable is one of the best in the business — keep in mind his ability to make in-game adjustments if LSU racks up the points early in this game. In the Tigers’ last three Championship Games (all with Venerable), Clemson allowed only 7 combined points in the second half while registering nine combined sacks. On paper, this may be a better statistical defense this season than the one that limited Tua Tagovailoa and a potent Alabama offense to just 16 points in last year’s National Championship Game. Last year’s Tigers’ defense allowed touchdowns in 10.8% of their opponent’s possessions while forcing turnovers in 12.1% of their opponent’s possessions and allowing 29.6% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The 2019 Clemson defense improved on all those numbers against a comparable schedule: they held their opponents to TD drives in just 8.0% of their possessions while forcing a turnover in 18.0% of their drives while allowing only 26.4% of the available yards per drive to their opponent. The Tigers led the country by allowing their opponents to -152 YPG below their season average. LSU will offer a stiff challenge with them averaging 397.2 passing YPG with a 10.7 Yards-Per-Attempt average — but Clemson has played 12 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 8.0 YPA and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who average at least 250 passing YPG. The extra week to prepare for this game should help Venable as well as they have played 33 of their last 45 games Under the Total with at least two weeks to prepare including seven straight Unders. Clemson has also played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage of at least 75% — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams who are outscoring their opponents by at least +17.0 PPG. LSU is outscoring its opponents by +27.8 PPG after their blowout victory over the Sooners. Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda devised a scheme that limited the explosive Oklahoma offense to just 322 yards of offense. It was key plays early in that game that stalled the Sooners’ offense which put them behind the eight-ball versus the Joe Burrow-Tigers offense. LSU held its last four opponents to 270 total YPG. Even better, after taking out that fourth game against Arkansas, the Tigers held their last three opponents to just 15.0 PPG along with only 259.0 total YPG against three above-average offenses in Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss. LSU did generate 692 total yards against a depleted Oklahoma defense — but they have then played 13 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 575 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have scored at least 37 points in six straight games, they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 37 points in four straight games.

FINAL TAKE: LSU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field as a favorite. Clemson has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 14 games in a dome Under the Total. While the field conditions help the speed of the offenses, it also helps the speed of the defenses. It does not take many Red Zone stops to keep the scoring below the number when it is approaching the 70 point range. Try to wait in placing this bet since I suspect the number will keep being pushed up by the betting public. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with National Championship Game between the Clemson Tigers (283) and the LSU Tigers (284). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (8-5) has won six of their last seven games after winning the Mid-American Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 26-21 upset victory over Central Michigan as a 5.5-point underdog. Lafayette (10-3) saw their six-game winning streak snapped in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game on December 7th with their 45-38 loss at Appalachian State as a 5-point underdog. This game is being played at Land Peebles Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The RedHawks have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a pint spread victory. Miami (OH) has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. And while the RedHawks have only forced one turnover in each of their last two games, they have then played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not forcing more than one turnover in two straight contests. Miami has a better defense than their numbers suggest — those statistics are skewed a bit from a difficult non-conference schedule that included road games at Ohio State, Iowa, and Cincinnati. The RedHawks will look to run the ball to control the Time of Possession — they averaged 38 rushing attempts per game while running on over 63% of their offensive snaps. But Miami averages only 3.5 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking just 122nd in the nation by averaging 305.9 total YPG. The RedHawks average -84 YPG below their opponent’s season defensive average. The Ragin’ Cajuns have a good defense that allowed only 19.9 PPG which was 20th best in the nation. It will be particularly difficult for freshman quarterback Brett Gabbert to throw on the Lafayette defense that is 16th in the nation by allowing just 193.8 passing YPG. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after winning at least four of their last five games. Lafayette did generate 513 yards of offense in their loss to the Mountaineers — but they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Ragin’ Cajuns have scored at least 31 points in seven straight games — but they have also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in four straight contests. Lafayette has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. They also have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total when favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. With the RedHawks scoring only 18.5 PPG when away from home, they will only need to slow down the Ragin’ Cajuns offense a bit to keep this game below the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Lending Tree Bowl between the Miami (OH) RedHawks (279) and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (280). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261) in the Alamo Bowl. THE SITUATION: Utah (11-2) looks to pick themselves off the after laying the proverbial egg in the Pac-12 Championship Game in their 37-15 upset loss to Oregon on December 6th. Texas (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season with their 49-24 win over Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite on November 29th. This game is being played on a neutral field in San Antonio.

REASONS TO TAKE THE UTES MINUS THE POINTS: Utah should respond with a strong effort with this high-profile game on New Year’s Eve to remove the stink from their embarrassing loss to the Ducks. The Utes have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Utah has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after suffering an upset loss. The Utes were serious contenders to make the College Football Playoff because they a legitimate outstanding team this season. They lead the nation by allowing only 256.2 total YPG — and they are 4th in the nation by only giving up 13.2 PPG. The offense is as prolific as any unit in the Kyle Whittingham era as they are 25th in the FBS by scoring 34.0 PPG. Senior quarterback Ty Huntley if 5th in the FBS in Passing Efficiency while proving his offense with a threat with his legs. Senior running back Zack Moss averages 6.2 Yards-Per-Carry. The Utes have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Utah has also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games as a favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 3.5 to 10 points. Texas may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. Expectations were sky-high for this team after last year’s bowl game where the Longhorns upset Georgia. In hindsight, more attention should have been paid that the Bulldogs were completely disinterested in that game after failing to make the College Football Playoff before seeing a handful of their best players skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft. Head coach Tom Herman has been very dangerous when motivating his team when they are playing the role of the underdog — his teams are 11-5 ATS with ten upset victories when getting the points. But he seems to be using this game entirely to prepare for an important 2020 season as he sacked both his offensive coordinator Tim Beck and his defensive coordinator Todd Orlando. This lack of continuity will be very difficult for his team to overcome even with a few extra weeks to prepare. As it is, the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games played on a neutral field wit the Total set in the 52.5 to 56 point range. Texas has been fortunate with turnovers to close out their regular season as well as they have only committed two turnovers (in separate games) over their last four contests. But the Longhorns have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after playing four straight games where they did not commit more than one turnover.

FINAL TAKE: I would worry about some teams not taking this bowl game seriously after suffering the emotional letdown of not making the College Football Playoff — but not a Whittingham-coached team. Whittingham is 11-2 straight-up in bowl games — and the Utes have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 bowl games. The route may be on … lay the points. 25* College Football Game of the Month with the Utah Utes (262) minus the points versus the Texas Longhorns (261). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). THE SITUATION: Georgia State (7-5) stumbles into this bowl game having lost three of their last four games after their 38-10 loss at Georgia Southern as a 6.5-point underdog back on November 30th. Wyoming (7-5) has also lost three of their last four games with their 20-6 loss at the Air Force as a 13.5-point underdog on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Tuscon.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Panthers have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points.  And while Georgia State did not commit a turnover in their loss to the Eagles, they have then played 9 of their last 10 games Under the total after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Panthers’ offense slowed down after the injury to quarterback Dan Ellington during the ninth game of the season. He had rushed for 603 yards through the first-half of that game against Louisiana-Monroe before suffering what turned out to be a torn ACL. In his last three starts, Ellington rushed for -5 yards overall which dramatically impacted the Georgia State offense as they averaged only 157 rushing YPG over their last final three games which was a far cry from their 275 rushing YPG before his injury. Over their last three games, the Panthers scored only 21.7 PPG while averaging just 332.7 total YPG with both those numbers -10.7 PPG and -112.2 total YPG below their season average. Georgia State also scored only 25.7 PPG while averaging 401.5 total YPG away from home which was -6.7 PPG and -45.4 YPG below their season average. The Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total in December. Georgia State has also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points. The Panthers will have difficulties moving the ball against this Cowboys defense the ranks 11th in the nation by allowing only 17.8 PPG. Wyoming has an outstanding run defense that allows only 99.4 rushing YPG which is 6th in the FBS. They held their opponents to -73 YPG below their season average on offense this season. They have held their last three opponents to just 17.7 PPG along with only 330.7 YPG. The Under is 19-7-1 in the Cowboys’ last 27 games after a loss — and the Under is 19-6-1 in their last 26 games after a point spread loss. Furthermore, Wyoming has seen the Under go 15-5-1 in their last 21 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 7 straight Unders after failing to score at least 20 points in their last contest. Additionally, the Cowboys have played 11 straight games Under the Total after a game where no more than 29 combined points were scored. Wyoming has their own issues at QB after redshirt freshman Sean Chambers suffered a season-ending knee injury. Chambers was effective with his legs as he averaged 6.7 YPC which accounted for 567 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore Tyler Vander Waal was ineffective in his absence under center with things being so bad that he decided to enter the transfer portal after the Air Force game. That leaves little-used freshman Levi Williams as the Cowboys’ quarterback for this game. Wyoming has scored only 14.7 PPG while averaging just 280.3 total YPG over their last three games. The Cowboys were a much better team at home where they were 6-1 in the high altitude air in Laramie. But this team was just 1-5 on the road where they only scored 18.3 PPG while averaging only 294.5 total YPG. They managed just 225 yards of offense between Vander Waal and Williams against the Falcons — and the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming’s main source of offense will be behind running back Xavavian Valladay who rushed for 1061 yards this season. Between Valladay’s running and the Cowboys’ defense, this game should move quickly. The Under is 18-7-1 in Wyoming’s last 26 games against teams with a winning record. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Arizona Bowl between the Georgia State Panthers (259) and the Wyoming Cowboys (260). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). THE SITUATION: Virginia (9-4) looks to bounce-back from their 62-17 loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game where they were 29-point underdogs back on December 7th. Florida (10-2) has won three straight games with their 40-17 win over Florida State as a 17-point favorite on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Cavaliers have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. Virginia has also played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. This is potent offense in the fourth season under head coach Bronco Mendenhall. Virginia was 42nd in the nation by averaging 32.4 PPG. They are led by senior quarterback Bryce Perkins who led the ACC by averaging 304.6 total YPG from his passing and running. He completed 27 of 43 passes for 266 yards against Clemson while adding another 58 rushing with his legs. Over their last three games, the Cavaliers have averaged 459.3 total YPG which is +69.0 net YPG above their season average. The problem for this Cavs team has been the deterioration of their play on defense. Virginia allowed only 281 total YPG in their first eight games — but injuries contributed to them surrendering 481 YPG over their last final five contests. The Cavaliers lost two starters in their secondary, senior cornerback Bryce Hall and junior safety Brenton Nelson, to season-ending injuries. Clemson racked up 619 yards of offense against Virginia with 211 of those yards coming on the ground. The Cavaliers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after giving up at least 200 rushing yards in their last contest. Over their last three games, Virginia has allowed 39.7 PPG along with 498.0 total YPG. The Cavs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in bowl games. Florida has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a win at home — and they have seen the Over go 8-3-1 in their last 12 games after a point spread win. The Gators held the Seminoles to just 250 yards of offense in their last game — and they have played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game. The Florida offense saw a season-ending injury early on to incumbent quarterback Feleipe Franks but the offense raised their level of play under the direction of junior Kyle Trask who threw 24 touchdown passes to just six interceptions in his eleven games. Over their last three games, the Gators scored 39.7 PPG while averaging 471.0 total YPG. They outgained Florida State by +217 net yards on the heels of outgaining Missouri by +130 net yards — and not only have they then played 9 of their last 14 games Over the Total after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 yards but they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after outgaining their last two opponents by at least +125 net yards.

FINAL TAKE: The Gators ranked 9th in the nation by allowing just 299.0 total YPG — but that number skyrocketed by +78.8 net YPG in their six games on the road. Florida has played 4 straight games Over the Total in December. 25* CFB New Year’s Day Six Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Orange Bowl between the Virginia Cavaliers (251) and the Florida Gators (252). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244) in the College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Clemson (13-0) remained undefeated this season with their 62-17 win over Virginia as a 29-point favorite in the ACC Championship Game on December 7th. Ohio State (13-0) won the Big Ten Championship that same day with their 34-21 win over Wisconsin as a 16.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Tigers displayed the balance on offense that will make it very hard for any defense to slow them down this postseason. In generating 619 yards of offense against the Cavaliers, Clemson rushed for 211 yards while adding another 408 yards in the air. The Tigers have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence leads a loaded offense that is 4th in the nation that scores 46.5 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the nation by averaging 547.7 total YPG. Lawrence has not thrown an interception since October 19th while producing the highest Pro Football Focus quarterback grade over the last four weeks of the regular season in all of college football. Since Week Nine of the regular season, Lawrence leads the nation with 20 touchdown passes while averaging 11.1 Yards-Per-Passing Attempt which is also best in the nation. His 214 Efficiency Rating over that span is also best in the nation. Where Lawrence has improved from leading the Tigers to the national championship as a freshman was with his mobility — he rushed for 407 yards on 77 carries while reaching the end zone seven times. Over their last three games, Clemson is scoring 50.7 PPG. And while the Buckeyes are 2nd in the nation by allowing just 148.1 passing YPG, the Tigers have played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total under head coach Dabo Swinney against teams who do not allow more than 150 passing YPG. Ohio State generated 492 yards against the Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes averaged 39.3 PPG over their last three games along with 495.3 total YPG against three of the best defenses in the nation against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Their win against the Badgers three weeks ago finished below the 58 point total — but the Buckeyes have then played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after coming off a game that finished below the number. And while Ohio State has only covered the point spread once in their last four games, they have then played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after failing to cover the point spread in three of their last four games. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields leads the Buckeyes offense that leads the nation by scoring 48.7 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by generating 531.0 total YPG. Fields has completed 67.5% of his passes while posting an incredible 40:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Like Lawrence, Fields can extend drives with his legs as he rushed for 471 yards with 10 touchdowns. I see more touchdowns than field goals from both teams given the wealth of weapons on offense. Ohio State has also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total in the rare occasions they are an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: The defensive numbers of both teams have come mostly against soft competition. The Clemson defense was not tested this season — the Buckeyes will offer their most difficult challenge by far. Ohio State allowed 12.5 PPG this season — but they surrendered 21.0 PPG over their last four games. The Buckeyes’ have not played a team with as much speed as the Tigers. I am expecting both teams to reach the 30-point threshold in what should be a shootout. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the Fiesta Bowl between the Clemson Tigers (243) and the Ohio State Buckeyes (244). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242) in Peach Bowl College Football Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Oklahoma (12-1) has won five straight games after defeating Baylor as a 9-point favorite by a 30-23 score on December 7th in the Big 12 Championship Game. LSU (13-0) remained undefeated this season by defeating Georgia by a 37-10 score as a 7.5-point favorite to win the SEC Championship on December 7th. This game will be played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SOONERS PLUS THE POINTS: This Oklahoma team is a very dangerous underdog in this spot. This is an experienced group of players and coaching staff that is more familiar with the playoff atmosphere this game will have then that of LSU. This will be the fourth CFB Playoff in the last five years for this program. And quarterback Jalen Hurts has starting experience in the CFB Playoffs with Alabama — and he is very familiar with the LSU defense as well given his two previous starts against the Tigers. Oklahoma has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 meetings against teams from the SEC. The Sooners may be a more dangerous underdog this time around than they have been in the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals due to the improvement of their defense under first-year defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. After allowing 33.3 PPG along with 6.1 Yards-Per-Play last season, Oklahoma improved to giving up just 24.5 PPG along with only 5.3 YPP this year. The Sooners’ defense was 25th in the nation by allowing 330.6 total YPG fueled by a pass defense that limited their opponents to just 198.5 passing YPG which was 23rd in the nation. And this is a unit that will be very familiar facing the spread passing attack that the Tigers’ installed this season. Over their last three games, Oklahoma allowed only 21.0 PPG along with just 268.0 total YPG. The Sooners are still a very potent football team on offense as they averaged 43.2 PPG while totaling 554.2 YPG which ranked 6th and 2nd in the nation. Third-year head coach Lincoln Riley has seen his team average 41 PPG over the last two College Football Playoff Semifinals against outstanding defenses from Alabama and Georgia. In many ways, Riley’s schemes are just fancy window dressing for Oklahoma’s old school wishbone offense — they are 11th in the nation by averaging 257.2 rushing YPG. Riley is a master at designing run plays that best put his offensive line in a position to succeed. Hurts has rushed the ball at least 20 times in four of his last five games since the team suffered their lone loss of the season to Kansas State. Hurts also completed 71.8% of his passes for 3634 passing yards with 32 touchdown passes and just 7 interceptions. Hurts offers the team a genuine deep passing threat to keep opposing defenses honest as he ranked 6th in the nation with 30 completions of 30 or more yards. This combination of characteristics has helped the Sooners cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games as an underdog. Oklahoma has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games in December. And while the Sooners have not covered the point spread in five of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. When it comes to LSU, I worry about teams that achieved so many goals in the regular season to now let their guard down just a bit. The Tigers enjoyed their best regular season in years by going undefeated to win the SEC which, of course, included a victory over Alabama. Quarterback Joe Burrow went through an emotional Heisman Trophy celebration. Does this group think they are a team of destiny now? They are facing a very feisty Sooners’ team that will be playing in this game for a third straight season. This Tigers defense is not elite after ranking just 32nd in the nation by allowing 341.3 total YPG. Even worse, in their six games away from Death Valley, LSU allowed 29.5 PPG along with 447.5 total YPG. The Tigers have struggled against teams with mobile quarterbacks like Ole Miss who jacked them for 614 total yards with 404 of that production coming on the ground. LSU gained 481 yards against the outstanding Georgia defense — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while the Tigers have not committed a turnover in two straight games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing a turnover in two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: While LSU is the top seed in these Semifinals, bare in mind that no number one seed has gone on to win the National Championship. I appreciate that the Sooners are out a few key players due to suspension and injury — most notably defensive end Ronnie Perkins and safety Dellarin Turner-Yell. The MVP for this Oklahoma defense is their coordinator in Grinch — and he has had time to adjust. I expect this team to rally around each other after Riley had the guts to suspend players. LSU has a big injury of their own with running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire questionable with a hamstring injury he suffered last week. At the end of the day, the Tigers are simply overvalued by the public in being asked to lay around two touchdowns. 25* College Football Playoff Game of the Year with the Oklahoma Sooners (241) plus the points versus the LSU Tigers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Camping World Bowl between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (7-5) saw their two-game winning streak snapped to end their regular season with their 27-17 upset loss at Kansas State as a 4-point favorite on November 30th. Notre Dame (10-2) has won five straight games with their 45-24 win at Stanford as a 17.5-point favorite on November 30th. This game will be played at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cyclones were crushed on the ground by the Wildcats in that game by allowing 231 rushing yards — but they have then seen the Under go 44-19-2 in their last 65 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Iowa State only allowed 288 total yards in that game with Kansas State managing to pass for just 57 yards — and the Under is then 5-2-1 in their last 8 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last contest. The Cyclones managed only 236 yards of offense in that game — and they have averaged just 397.0 total YPG over their last three contests which is over 60 yards below their 458.7 total YPG average. The Under is 9-2-1 in Iowa State’s last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Under is 6-2-1 in the Cyclones’ last 9 games against teams outside the Big 12. And Iowa State has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as an underdog — and the Under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games played on a neutral field as an underdog. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Cyclones’ last 7 bowl game appearances — and the Under is a decisive 18-7-2 in their last 27 games played on field turf. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. The Fighting Irish have also played 21 of their last 28 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Irish have an outstanding defense that ranks 14th in the nation by allowing just 18.7 PPG — and their defense is 3rd in the FBS by allowing only 163.7 passing YPG. After losing to Michigan, Notre Dame only allowed more than 20 points just once in their last five games. They held their opponents to -86 YPG below their season offensive average — and they also ranked 7th in the nation by Expected Points Added per play. The Irish offense did slow down when playing away from South Bend as they scored just 29.8 PPG while averaging just 367.6 total YPG in their last five road games which was over a touchdown less along with over 60 yards less than their 37.1 PPG and 429.4 total YPG averages. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total as a favorite.

FINAL TAKE: The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total on a neutral field as the favorite. 25* CFB ABC-TV Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (237) and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (238). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233) in the Holiday Bowl. THE SITUATION: Iowa (9-3) has won three straight games with their 27-24 win over Nebraska as a 4-point favorite back on November 29th. USC (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 52-35 win over UCLA as a 12.5-point favorite back on November 23rd as a 12.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at SDCCU Stadium in San Diego.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a narrow win by 3 points or less against a Big Ten rival. And while the Hawkeyes have not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two games. This Iowa team lost their three games by a combined 14 points. This is a typical Kirk Ferentz team that is very physical with an outstanding defense and playmakers on offense. The Hawkeyes are 5th in the nation by allowing only 13.2 PPG — and they are 11th in the FBS by giving up just 304.3 total YPG. Iowa held their opponents to -81 YPG below their opponent’s season average. The offense is led by senior quarterback Nate Stanley who will be using this opportunity to bolster his NFL draft prospects. Iowa has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when given at least two weeks to prepare under Ferentz. The Hawkeyes are also 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in December. And in their last 8 games against teams outside the Big Ten, Iowa has covered the point spread 6 times. USC may be due for a letdown after avenging their 2018 loss to cross-town rival UCLA as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 19 games after a win at home over a Pac-12 opponent. Additionally, USC is just 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread victory so consistency is an issue for this team. This team has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning at least three straight contests. Complacency is also an issue for this program — while the program decided to retain head coach Clay Helton for a sixth season, the Trojans then brought-in the bottom rated recruiting class earlier this month. While this remains a talented team tonight, this is a group that makes too many mistakes under Helton’s leadership. USC is 111th in the nation by averaging -0.58 net turnovers per game. The Trojans are also tied for 111th in the nation by averaging 7.25 penalties per game — and they rank 124th by surrendering an average of 71.33 penalty YPG. These are the type of teams that Ferentz’s teams exploit — Iowa has covered the point spread in 35 of their last 55 games against teams that average at least 60 penalty YPG. USC also is suspect on defense with a unit that has been riddled by injuries all season. The Trojans are 84th in the nation by allowing 415.4 total YPG while also ranking 99th in the FBS by surrendering 248.9 passing YPG. USC allows their opponents to average +13 YPG above their season average — and they have allowed their last four opponents to average 34 PPG. UCLA passed for 383 yards against them a month ago — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Trojans rank 111th in the nation in opponent’s Success Rate on offense — and the Hawkeyes faced only one team (Rutgers) with a worse opponent Success Rate all season. USC is loaded on offense behind freshman QB Kedon Slovis and three uber-talented wide receivers. But this passing game will be tested by an Iowa defense that ranked 11th in the nation by allowing just 184.2 passing YPG. USC has failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games as an underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games played on a neutral field — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games played in December including failing to cover their last 5 December contests.

FINAL TAKE: USC has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight bowl games while also failing to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 minor bowl games. Iowa has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 minor bowl games under Ferentz. This will be an emotional game for this Iowa program after their legendary coach, Hayden Fry, passed away ten days earlier. Ferentz took over the program from Fry in 1999 — and a victory tonight would secure the Hawkeyes’ first 10-win season since 2015. 25* CFB FS1-TV Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (234) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (233). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. THE SITUATION: Liberty (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak on November 30th with their 49-28 win over New Mexico State as a 14.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (7-5) has won two of their last three games as well as eight of their last ten contests with their 38-10 victory over Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite on November 30th. The Cure Bowl game takes place on a neutral field in Orlando.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FLAMES PLUS THE POINTS: Liberty generated 486 yards of offense against the Aggies to close out their regular season — and they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. These Flames are a high-scoring offense led by senior quarterback Stephen Calvert who threw for 26 touchdown passes while tossing just five interceptions. Calvert has a dynamic target in wide receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden who has 1333 receiving yards with nine touchdown receptions. Calvert leads an offense that is tied for 31st in the FBS by scoring 33.7 PPG while averaging 442.5 total YPG which is 34th in the nation. Calvert leads a passing attack that is 21st in the FBS by averaging 290.5 passing YPG. He should have success this afternoon against a suspect Eagles pass defense that allows their opponents to average 240.6 passing YPG which is 91st in the nation. This team is comfortable in getting into high scoring affairs. They have seen 82 and 77 combined points scored in their last two games — and they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after playing two straight games where at least 70 combined points were scored. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. This team has a veteran head coach in Hugh Freeze who has dealt with adversity this season after contracting a staph infection that led to him coaching a handful of games from his bed. Look for this team to rally around their coach in this game. The knock-on this Flames team not affiliated with a conference is that they reached seven wins on one of the softest schedules in the nation. But also keep in mind that Liberty upset the same Buffalo team that easily defeated Charlotte in yesterday’s Bahamas Bowl — and Georgia Southern deploys a similar run-oriented style of offense. Being an independent also required the Flames to endure a difficult late-season four-game road trip that included trips to BYU and Virginia — so this is a battle-tested group. They have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games against non-conference opponents. Liberty has also covered the point spread in 17 of their last 24 games as an underdog. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win over a Sun Belt Conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Eagles did not commit a turnover in their last victory over the Panthers, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 road games after not committing a turnover in their last game. Georgia Southern has won four games decided by one scoring possession with two of those victories coming in overtime — so this team was a couple of bad breaks from bot even being bowl eligible. The Eagles were outgained by -43.0 net YPG overall this season — and they were outscored by -12.5 PPG in their six games away from home while being outgained by -124.5 net YPG in those contests. Georgia Southern deploys a spread triple offense that is effective in running the ball — but things are not as smooth if quarterback Shai Werts has to throw the football with the Eagles averaging just 72.8 passing YPG which is last in the FBS with Werts averaging below 11 passing attempts per game in his ten contests.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia Southern returned fourteen starters from last year’s 10-3 team that won the Camellia Bowl over Eastern Michigan by a 23-21 score. Their motivation to prepare for this bowl game may not be as high in these preceding weeks — and the Eagles have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games with at least two weeks of rest and preparation. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Liberty Flames (209) plus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles in the Cure Bowl. Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). THE SITUATION: Army (5-7) saw their two-game winning streak snapped back in their last game back on November 30th in their 52-31 loss at Hawai’i as a 2.5-point underdog. Navy (9-2) has won two straight games after their 56-41 win at Houston as a 9-point favorite back on November 30th. This game is being played on a neutral field in Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Black Knights surrendered 359 passing yards to the Rainbow Warriors in their last game — but they have then played 20 of their last 27 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. Head coach Jeff Monken will have his defense ready to play in this game as Army has played 22 of their last 29 games Under the Total after a bye week. Despite surrendering 492 total yards to Hawai’i, the Black Knights have a good defense that allows only 22.3 PPG and just 337.8 total YPG which ranks 34th and 29th best in the nation. But the struggle for this team may be on the other side of the ball as Army averages just 20.8 PPG along with 338.8 total YPG away from home which is -9.5 PPG and -59.4 YPG below their season average. The Black Knights have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field as an underdog. Furthermore, Army has played 14 of their last 17 games Under the Total in December — and they have played 27 of their last 38 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Navy surrounded 393 passing yards to the Cougars in their last game — but they have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Under is also 19-7-1 in the Midshipmen’s last 27 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. Navy thrives with their run defense as they hold their opponents to only 109.7 rushing YPG which is 17th best in the nation. The most rushing yards they allowed all season was against Tulane who ran for 187 yards which was far below their 249.8 rushing YPG which is 13th best in the nation. The Midshipmen have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total in December. They also have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total playing on a neutral field as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 14 of their last 16 meetings Under the Total. With both teams deploying a spread triple option offensive attack, not only is the typical element of surprise gone for these respective offensive attacks who usually face opponents unfamiliar with their unique schemes but they are facing defenses that practice every day against their style. Army won last year’s game by a 17-10 score despite generating only 283 yards of offense with just 59 plays from scrimmage. Navy only had 208 total yards in that game on 54 plays. And in the Black Knights’ 14-13 victory in 2017, they had only 296 yards of offense on 48 plays but they limited the Midshipmen to just 241 total yards on 50 plays. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Army Black Knights (303) and the Navy Midshipmen (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). THE SITUATION: Georgia (11-1) has won six straight games with their 52-7 win over Georgia Tech last week as a 28.5-point favorite. LSU (12-0) remained undefeated this season with their 50-7 win over Texas A&M last week as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs’ biggest question mark is with their skill players on offense. Wide receiver Lawrence Cager is out the season with an ankle injury and wide receiver George Perkins will miss the first half in this game to serve out a suspension. Furthermore, running back D’Andre Swift is dealing with a shoulder injury but it looks like he will be able to play in this game. Georgia did generate 500 yards against the Yellow Jackets — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 24 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback in Jake Fromm who has the experience of a National Championship Game as well as two prior SEC Championship Games. But is the Georgia defense that should keep them in this game. They rank 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.4 PPG — and they rank 4th in the FBS by limiting their opponents to only 257.0 total YPG. The Bulldogs also may very well have the best special teams unit in the nation. This combination of elite defense and special teams has helped Georgia cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against conference opponents. The Bulldogs have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 20 games against teams with a winning record. And in their last 9 games played on a neutral field, Georgia has covered the point spread in 8 of these contests. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. And while the Tigers held the football for 34:38 minutes against the Aggies while generating 31 first downs, LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 24 first downs while controlling the clock for at least 34 minutes in their last game. The Tigers also gained 553 yards in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Remember that while LSU has been explosive on offense often this season, they narrowly got by Auburn by a 23-20 score — and the Tigers are a defense-first run team like the Bulldogs. LSU has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Georgia is a dangerous underdog that has covered the point spread in 5 straight games when getting the points since 2016 with them pulling the outright upset three times. 25* CFB Power-Five Conference Championship Game of the Year is with the Georgia Bulldogs (117) plus the points versus LSU Tigers (118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (9-4) has won four straight games with their 52-31 win over Army last week as a 2.5-point favorite. Boise State (11-1) has won five straight games after they defeated Colorado State on the road by a 31-24 score as a 13.5-point favorite. The Broncos earned the right to host this Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their better record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: Don’t be scared off going against home teams in conference championship games. Home teams are now just 18-20 ATS in the thirty-right times that one has hosted a conference championship contest. Only one home team covered the point spread last year in the Conference Championship games (Central Florida) with the three other home teams failing to cover the point spread with Middle Tennessee and this Boise State team losing outright despite being a home favorite. The Broncos are not a reliable big favorite as they have failed to covert point spread in 10 of their last 15 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 home games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. With freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier still recovering from his shoulder injury, 5th year senior quarterback Jaylon Henderson will make his fourth straight start for this team. The Broncos are averaging 43 PPG in his three starts with the 31 points they put up last week being their lowest number — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. Boise State was outgained by 35 yards last week by a mediocre Rams team that then let their head coach go. The Broncos surrendered 289 passing yards with Colorado State averaging 6.32 Yards-Per-Play — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. They also have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last contest. This leaky pass defense presents a scary proposition when facing the Rainbow Warriors’ junior quarterback Cole McDonald that leads an offense that is 6th in the nation by averaging 332.5 passing YPG. It will be a chilly night in Boise with temperatures in the 40s — but I watched McDonald complete 31 of 36 passes for 373 yards on a cold night in Reno earlier this season against Nevada. Hawai’i has four receivers with at least 50 catches. I was also impressed with the Rainbow Warriors’ ability to move the football against a strong Army defense in what was a lame-duck game for them with this MWC Championship Game already clinched. Hawai’i gained 492 yards against the Black Knights while only having the ball for 24:40 minutes in that game — and they have then covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Rainbow Warriors did surrender 411 rushing yards to Army’s spread triple option — but they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after allowing at least 375 rushing yards in their last game. The Hawai’i defense has improved — they held their last two conference opponents in UNLV and San Diego State to just 18 combined points along with only 4 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games on the road with the Total set at 63 to 70 including covering the point all three times in that situation this season.

FINAL TAKE: Boise State won the first meeting between these two teams at home by a 59-37 score back on October 12th. But Hawai’i has covered the point spread in their last 5 opportunities to exact same-season revenge. The Broncos may be taking the Rainbow Warriors lightly while dreaming of the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five representative in the New Year’s Six bowls — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games in December. Hawai’i is a very dangerous underdog giving the potency of their offensive attack. 25* CFB Underdog of the Year with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (115) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (116). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). THE SITUATION: Oregon (10-2) reached the Pac-12 Championship Game with their 24-10 win over Oregon State last Saturday as a 20.5-point favorite. Utah (11-1) joined them with their 45-15 win over Colorado as a 27.5-point favorite. This game is being played on a neutral field at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Utes’ gameplan is to control Time of Possession while crushing the will of their opponent in this game of keep away by employing a very physical style of defense. Utah plays the slowest tempo in the FBS while averaging 34:52 minutes per game with the football. The Under is 6-2-1 in their last 9 games after a straight-up win — and they have also played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a win at home. Additionally, the Utes have played 16 of their last 22 games on the road Under the Total after a win at home by at least 28 points. Utah held the Buffaloes last week to just 217 yards of offense — and they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Utes have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. Utah has not allowed more than 15 points in seven of their last eight games. Kyle Whittingham’s defense ranks third in the nation by holding their opponents to just 11.3 PPG — and they also rank 3rd in the FBS by allowing just 241.6 total YPG. The Utes have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and the Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games against Pac-12 opponents. Furthermore, Utah has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total on a neutral field when favored by up to 7 points. Senior quarterback Tyler Huntley will be challenged by the toughest defense that he has faced all season in this Ducks’ unit. First-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos has done a fantastic job with a unit that returned seven starters from last year’s squad. Oregon ranks 10th in the nation by allowing just 15.8 PPG. It starts up from for the Ducks with nose guard Jordan Scott who leads a defensive line that holds their opponents to only 106.1 rushing YPG which is 10th in the nation. This stout run defense forces opponents to pass — and Oregon has picked off 17 passes this season. The Ducks have played 5 straight games Under the Total after winning four of their last five games — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Oregon is led by senior quarterback Justin Herbert who is touted as a high NFL draft prospect but who has underperformed in big games throughout his career. While the Ducks average 452.3 total YPG at home in Autzen Stadium, that number drops by over 60 YPG to just 389.8 total YPG when they are playing on the road. Oregon has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total as an underdog — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total as a dog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Utah played in last year’s Pac-12 Championship Game and lost to Washington by a 10-3 score. While this game should see more offense, expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (103) and the Utah Utes (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). THE SITUATION: Alabama (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 66-3 warmup victory over Western Carolina last week as a 58.5-point favorite. Auburn (8-3) hosts this year’s Iron Bowl coming after their 52-0 shutout victory over Samford last week as a 45.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The big question for Alabama is just how much of a drop-off will they experience without Tua Tagovailoa who suffered a season-ending hip injury in their win over Mississippi State. But it is pretty much situation normal for Alabama to thrive under head coach Nick Saban when they have the proverbial “game manager” under center. What made Tagavailoa such an exciting talent is that Saban had never had a quarterback quite so dynamic as him in his thirteen-year tenure in Tuscaloosa. Tagavailoa broke the NCAA record in passing efficiency last year before producing another outstanding season this year before suffering an ankle injury midseason. But remember that Alabama did plenty of winning with A.J. Mccarran and Greg McElroy as the signal-caller. Here is something that I have never written or uttered before: I think this offense will benefit from the experience of offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. I was not a fan of his work as the OC with the Atlanta Falcons — but his Red Zone issues there did get better over time. But Sarkisian is unquestionably a wily veteran at this point in his career which includes him serving as the offensive coordinator for Alabama in the 2017 National Championship Game where they lost to Clemson by a 35-31 score. I have confidence that he can dial-up a game plan to help put sophomore Mac Jones in a position to succeed. The Crimson Tide may very well have the most talented wide receiver group in the nation with four future NFL players in Jerry Judy, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith, and Jaylen Waddle. Auburn has an outstanding defense but it is difficult for any unit to provide ample coverage to all that talent. Don’t be surprised if Sarkisian has plenty of new schemes that get the ball quickly to these talented skill position players in ways different than the skills Tagovailoa offered. It is not as if Jones lacks talent himself — of course, he was highly recruited coming out of high school (Phil Steele ranked him his #25th incoming QB). Jones has completed 28 of 34 passes for 510 yards with six touchdown passes and no interceptions in his two starts this season against Arkansas and Western Carolina. And he will get help from running back Najee Harris who has quietly averaged 6 Yards-Per-Carry. I still see an offense very similar to the one that Saban won four National Championships here at Alabama before he called on Tagovailoa to come in relief in the second half to rally his team to defeat Georgia two years ago for his fifth championship for the Crimson Tide. Alabama has still averaged 530.7 total YPG over their last three games — and they have then covered the point spread in 18 of their last 27 games after averaging at least 450 YPG over their last three contests. And while the Tide has averaged 8.5 Yards-Per-Play and 9.49 YPP in their last two games, they have then covered the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP in two straight games. Furthermore, the Alabama defense will be playing with a chip on their shoulders to make things happen. While injuries early in the season required younger players in the front seven to take on more playing time, this unit ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 315.4 total YPG. The Crimson Tide has forced 25 turnovers this season — and they lead the nation by averaging +1.55 net turnovers per game. The weak link for this Auburn team is their offense that ranks just 54th in the nation by averaging 427.2 total YPG. While the Tigers have speed to burn at the skill positions, they are not nearly as talented at the wide receiver positions with reliable ball catchers. Furthermore, freshman quarterback Bo Nix has struggled in big games in his rookie season without the elite talent at his disposal that Jones will enjoy. In losses to Florida and LSU, Nix completed just 26 of 62 passes with just two touchdown passes and four interceptions. And while the Tigers forced Georgia to punt eleven times when hosting the Bulldogs, they still only managed 14 points in that loss. Nix completed 15 of 23 passes last week against Samford — but don’t be fooled by those numbers as he generated only 150 passing yards in that warmup game. Pro Football Focus rated that performance as the lowest-graded of all SEC quarterbacks last week — so it is safe to say that he is not entering the biggest game of his career with tons of momentum. As it is, Auburn has failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Tigers have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 28 points. Auburn’s play on defense has helped them play four straight Unders — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after playing at least two straight Unders. The Tigers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game. Auburn played LSU close in a 23-20 loss — but they also survived one-possession games in wins over Oregon, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Some pundits think the Tide needs a big win in this game to keep their playoff hopes alive but I suspect that all they need is a victory to remind the Playoff Committee and the potential audience in the National Semifinals that this team was on-target for one of the best seasons in college football history before their surprising 44-16 loss to Clemson in the championship game. This team remains chippy for the opportunity for a rematch — and that drive should lead them to victory this afternoon. 25* College Football Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (397) minus the points versus the Auburn Tigers (398). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 6:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). THE SITUATION: Troy (5-6) saw their two-game winning streak snapped last week with their ugly 53-3 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette as a 13-point underdog. Appalachian State (10-1) has won three straight games with their 35-13 win over Texas State last week as a 28-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS PLUS THE POINTS: What happened to Troy last week. For starters, they ran into a juggernaut which is that Ragin’ Cajuns team that may very well be the best non-Power Five in the nation this year. Senior quarterback Kaleb Barker also suffered his worst game of the season by throwing two picks and completing just 15 of 32 passes. This team endured a -3 net turnover margin in that contest — but not only have they covered the point spread in 7 straight games after a game where they had a -2 or worse net turnover margin but they also have covered 18 of their last 24 games after suffering a -3 or worse net turnover margin in their last contest. The Trojans were also completing a gauntlet of a schedule that had them on the road for the second straight week as well as the fourth time in five games. Troy should bounce-back with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games after a loss by at last four touchdowns. The Trojans have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after failing to score at least 20 points. This is a proud, veteran team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that finished the season 10-3.  Barker leads a passing attack that remains 12th in the nation by averaging 314.0 passing YPG. They return home where they are scoring 47.8 PPG while averaging 520.0 total YPG. They are outscoring their guests by +17.4 PPG while outgaining them by +132.8 net YPG. Troy has covered the point spread in 15 of their last 19 home games after allowing at least 37 points in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games at home after allowing at least 50 points in their last contest. Appalachian State has clinched their date with Lafayette next week in the Sun Belt Conference championship game next Saturday — but they need to win this game to secure hosting that game. The Mountaineers also have a chance to represent the Group of Five schools in their automatic bid for a New Year’s Six Bowl — so they will have much to play for in this contest. Yet the pressure of the moment might put this team in a difficult situation. As it is, Appalachian State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after winning at least eight of their last ten games. And while they outgained Texas State last week by +260 net yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after outgaining their last opponent by at least +125 net yards. 

FINAL TAKE: Troy has the talent to hang with the Mountaineers as they crushed the lone team to beat Appalachian State this year by a whopping 49-28 margin. The Trojans should put up plenty of points as they have not scored at least 30 points only twice this season. Things could have been much different for this Troy team that has lost all three of their games decided by one scoring possession. The opportunity to pull the upset offers the Trojans not only redemption from last week but a sixth win on the season to become bowl eligible while also giving them a measure of revenge from their 21-10 loss to the Mountaineers last season. 25* CFB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (342) plus the points versus the Appalachian State Mountaineers (341). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). THE SITUATION: Virginia (8-3) has won three straight games after their blowout 55-27 win over Liberty last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Virginia Tech (8-3) has won three games in a row with their 28-0 win over Pittsburgh last Saturday as a 3.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CAVALIERS PLUS THE POINTS: The winner of this game between these two teams with 5-2 conference records wins the Coastal Division and will advance to the ACC Championship Game next week. Virginia is 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Cavaliers raced out to a 24-14 halftime lead in that contest against the Flames — and they have covered the point spread in 5 straight games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Virginia is tough to beat when they get their offense cranking given the consistency of their defense. The Cavaliers rank 22nd in the nation by allowing only 323.2 total YPG. Virginia stays at home for this rivalry game where they are a perfect 6-0 while scoring 41.2 PPG. They are outscoring their guests by +20.0 PPG at home while outgaining them by +97.2 net YPG. The Cavaliers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Over their last three games, Virginia is scoring 42.0 PPG while averaging a robust 476.3 total YPG. Under fourth-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall, the Cavaliers have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 10 points to an ACC rival in their last game. The Hokies have pitched two straight shutouts but these were not against the most powerful offenses in the league against the Panthers and Georgia Tech. Virginia Tech held Pittsburgh to just 177 total yards last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. But this remains a team that is allowing 394.0 total YPG in their four road games which is why they are being outgained by -24.0 net YPG away from home. The Hokies only generated 263 total yards last week in the win with redshirt sophomore quarterback Hendon Hooker passing for 153 yards. But Virginia Tech has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Hokies offense is averaging just 381.4 total YPG which is 86th in the nation. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 road games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Virginia Tech has dominated this series having won fifteen meetings in a row going back to 2003. The Hokies pulled off a 34-31 upset win over the Cavaliers last year as a 5.5-point favorite. But with Virginia Tech feeling as much pressure in this game as the Cavs — look for the home dog to finally earn a big win in this rivalry (but take the points for some insurance). 25* CFB ACC Game of the Year with the Virginia Cavaliers (316) plus the points versus the Virginia Tech Hokies (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). THE SITUATION: Northern Illinois (4-7) has lost two of their last three games after their 45-17 upset loss to Eastern Michigan last Tuesday as a 3.5-point favorite. Western Michigan (7-4) has won three straight games with their 37-34 win in overtime at Ohio two Tuesdays ago as a 1.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos need to win tonight’s game to clinch a spot in the Mid-American Conference championship game as the winner of the West Division — so this team will be feeling the pressure to succeed. But Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a narrow loss by 3 points or less to a MAC foe. This team has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this crucial game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after their bye week. Western Michigan has only won once away from home this season in five games — they are being outscored on the road by -12.8 PPG due to their defense surrendering 40.4 PPG along with 518.0 total YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games against teams with a losing record at home. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as a favorite laying 3.5 to 10 points. Northern Illinois will have a losing season under first-year head coach Thomas Hammock. This game is about their pride and the opportunity to play the role of spoiler. The Huskies can also take some solace in the opportunity to avenge their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan last season. Northern Illinois has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss to a conference rival. The Huskies have also covered the point spread in 5 straight games after a point spread loss. Despite last week’s loss, Northern Illinois is still outscoring their visitors at home by +7.0 PPG while outgaining them by +94.7 net YPG. The Huskies have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 21 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Northern Illinois has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games as an underdog getting 7 to 14 points.

FINAL TAKE: Western Michigan has not won in Dekalb since 2007 — they are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games against the Huskies while failing to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played at Northern Illinois. 25* CFB Tuesday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Northern Illinois Huskies (304) plus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). THE SITUATION: Arizona State (5-5) has lost four straight games with their 35-34 upset loss at Washington State last week as a 1-point favorite. Oregon (9-1) still has College Football Playoff aspirations after their 34-6 win over Arizona last week as a 27-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SUN DEVILS PLUS THE POINTS: The Ducks have clinched the Pac-12 North title so they will be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game in two weeks. With the season-ending injury to Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, Oregon might have the inside track to claim one of the four playoffs spots if they win the rest of their games — but a loss in Tempe who ruin those ambitions. Don’t be surprised if the Ducks feel the pressure in this nationally televised game at night against a feisty Sun Devils team. As it is, Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a victory by at least three touchdowns — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after a point spread win. Additionally, the Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Quarterback Justin Herbert completed 20 of 28 passes last week for 333 yards — but Oregon is just 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. And while the Ducks held the Wildcats to only 240 total yards, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Oregon defense has taken a step back over the last month. While allowing just 14.8 PPG and 306.1 total YPG this season which ranks 10th and 14th in the nation, the Ducks have allowed their last three opponents to score 21.7 PPG while averaging 347.0 total YPG. Oregon also allows their home hosts to average 22.0 PPG while averaging 346.5 total YPG. The Ducks have thrived with a +1.30 net turnover margin per game which is tied for second-best in the nation — but the bouncing ball can be fickle especially with the pressure on in hostile environments. Arizona State has covered the point spread in 8 of their 13 games as an underdog under head coach Herm Edwards with the Sun Devils pulling off six straight upset victories. This team has been a double-digit underdog three times in those games with them finished 2-1 ATS while upsetting Michigan State this season as a +15.5 point underdog. Additionally, since 2014, Arizona State has been a double-digit do eleven times — and they have covered the point spread 9 times while pulling off the outright upset six times. The Sun Devils should respond well from their disappointing loss last week as they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a loss by 3 points or less on the road. Arizona State has also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games at home after a game where both teams scored at least 31 points. The Sun Devils should be able to keep up with the Ducks with their offense that has averaged 30.7 PPG over their last three games. Freshman quarterback Jayden Daniels experienced some growing pains against the outstanding Utah defense four games — but he has since completed 69% of his passes with 9 touchdown passes and no interceptions in his three games since that start.

FINAL TAKE: Arizona State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Expect a close game with the Sun Devils in a position to pull the upset. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Game of the Year with the Arizona State Sun Devils (152) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (151). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). THE SITUATION: Indiana (7-3) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 34-27 loss at Penn State as a 15-point underdog. Michigan (8-2) has won three games in a row with their 44-10 win at home against Michigan State as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HOOSIERS PLUS THE POINTS: This is a challenging sandwich game for the Wolverines where they may be caught dealing with the emotional letdown of their big in-state rivalry game with the Spartans while possibly looking ahead to their showdown with Ohio State next week. As it is, Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 22 of their last 31 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games preceding their big rivalry game with the Buckeyes — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in these last three situations under head coach Jim Harbaugh. That win against Sparty came on the heels of their 38-7 win at Maryland as a three-touchdown favorite — but the Wolverines have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after covering the point spread in two straight games as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Michigan has covered the point spread in six of their last seven games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after covering the point spread in at least five of their last six games. The Wolverines offense has played better as of late — whether as a result of a better understanding of rookie offensive coordinator Josh Gattis’ principles and/or the improved health of quarterback Shea Patterson who was banged up early in the season. Patterson completed 24 of 33 passes last week for 384 yards — but not only has Michigan failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game, they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after passing for at least 375 yards in their last game. The Wolverines have scored at least 38 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after scoring at least 37 points in three straight contests. The Michigan defense has also played well as they have not allowed more than 14 points in three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing at least 14 points in three straight contests. Now the Wolverines go back on the road where their scoring drops to 28.7 PPG. Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games on the road — and they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win — and they have also covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning four or five of their last six games. Peyton Ramsey was very effective last week as the new starting quarterback after the season-ending injury to Michael Penix, Jr. Ramsey completed 31 of 41 passes for 371 yards against the Nittany Lions’ defense while leading the Hoosiers to 462 yards of offense. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards. This is a dangerous team in the third season under head coach Tom Allen. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against ranked opponents under Allen but remain hungry to pull the straight-up upset having lost their last seventeen games against ranked foes. The Hoosiers are balanced on both sides of the football as they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 448.0 total YPG while also ranking 18th in the nation by allowing just 316.3 total YPG. They return home where they are 4-1 with an average winning margin of +7.3 PPG due to an offense that scores 33.0 PPG. Indiana has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: It is Senior Day in Bloomington with the Hoosiers honoring sixteen seniors whose career will be capped by pulling the upset this afternoon. The Wolverines are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Indiana which includes a loss in Ann Arbor in overtime in Allen’s first year with the program. 25* CFB Big Ten Underdog of the Year with the Indiana Hoosiers (122) plus the points versus the Michigan Wolverines (121). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). THE SITUATION: Ohio (4-6) has lost their last two games are their 37-34 upset loss at home to Western Michigan last Tuesday as a 1.5-point favorite. Bowling Green (3-7) has lost three of their last four games after their 44-3 loss at Miami (OH) as a 17-point underdog last Wednesday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bobcats are looking to salvage their season with a potential bowl bid still after getting upset in two straight games by a combined 6 points. Their loss to the Broncos finished well above the 59 point Total — and they have played 29 of their last 43 road games Under the Total after playing a game that finished Over the Total. Ohio has also played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after playing a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Bobcats allowed 322 passing yards in that game to the Broncos — but they have then seen the Under go 24-10-1 in their last 35 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Despite that effort last week, Ohio has been playing better defense as of late. They have held their last three opponents to 368.7 total YPG which is -63.9 net YPG below their season average. Now the Bobcats go on the road where they are scoring 24.0 PPG while averaging 359.5 total YPG — and those numbers are -5.8 PPG and -51.3 net YPG below their season averages. Ohio also holds their home hosts to just 23.5 PPG which is -6.2 PPG below their season defensive average. The Bobcats have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on the road. Ohio did rush for 216 yards last week — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bobcats average 6.89 Yards-Per-Play in that contest — and they have played 25 of their last 36 road games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-1 in Ohio’s last 8 games against teams with a losing record. Bowling Green has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Bobcats have played 11 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. Despite last week’s result, the Falcons have also played a bit better on the defensive side of the football. While Bowling Green ranks 105th in the nation by allowing 441.1 total YPG, they have held their last three opponents to just 366.3 total YPG. The Falcons have played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Bowling Green does play much better defense at home where they hold their visitors to just 17.8 PPG along with only 313.6 total YPG in their five games this season. The Falcons have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total. The bigger issue for Bowling Green is their lack of productivity on offense as they rank 125th in the nation by scoring only 16.1 PPG. The Falcons have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they have played 6 straight home games Under the Total after failing to score at least 14 points in their last contest. Bowling Green was trailing by a 37-3 score at halftime of that game — and they have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total after trailing by at least 17 points at halftime of their last game.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 6 of their last 8 meetings Under the Total. Expect another lower scoring game between these two teams. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Ohio Bobcats (101) and the Bowling Green Falcons (102). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). THE SITUATION: Baylor (9-0) remained unbeaten last week with their 29-23 win in overtime at TCU as a 1-point favorite. Oklahoma (8-1) survived a 42-41 win at home against Iowa State as a 14-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BEARS PLUS THE POINTS: Baylor demonstrated grit to rally from a 9-0 halftime deficit on the road to a good Horned Frogs team before pulling that game out in overtime. The Bears may lose this game — but they will go down fighting in what should be a one-possession game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win. The Bears have struggled on offense over the last two weeks by scoring only 26 combined points in regulation over their last two games. But this remains a team that is 26th in the nation by averaging 35.3 PPG — and they score 38.4 PPG at home in Waco while generating 490.6 total YPG. Turnovers have played a role in these last two games as they have given the ball up five times in those contests. They now host this Sooners team that has not earned even one takeaway in their last five games. And what has kept head coach Matt Rhule’s team undefeated this season is the strong play of their defense. Baylor ranks 17th in the nation by allowing only 19.0 PPG — and they are 31st in the nation by allowing just 337.4 total YPG. The Bears have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in November. Oklahoma had failed to over the pint spread in 4 straight games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. The Sooners defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this program in the Lincoln Riley era — and they have allowed 903 yards of offense which has translated into 99 combined points in their last two games. The Cyclones generated 477 yards against them last week — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. But new concerns have developed with their offense as of late. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has become too reliant on wide receiver CeeDee Lamb as his go-to target — he has caught thirteen balls over the last two weeks — which has made the Riley offense a bit too predictable. The play of the offensive line has not been as strong as in previous seasons either with Hurts facing pressure from opposing pass rushers. Now this team goes on the road where they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games — and they are just 1-3-1 in their last 5 road games against teams with winning record at home. Furthermore, the Sooners are just 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Oklahoma is just 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 road games under Riley when favored in a regular-season game. Baylor is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog in the Rhule era with five of those games resulting in an outright upset victory. The Bears are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games as a dog. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Baylor Bears (38) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (381). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). THE SITUATION: Iowa (6-3) saw their two-game losing streak snapped last Saturday with their narrow 24-22 loss at Wisconsin as a 7.5-point underdog. Minnesota (9-0) remained undefeated last week with their 31-26 upset win over Penn State as a 6.5-point home underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: It was tempting for a majority of bettors last week to fade the Golden Gophers considering a slew of factors that had them fortunate to still be unbeaten heading into their showdown with the Nittany Lions. Minnesota had orchestrated a slew of comeback victories albeit against dubious opponents like Fresno State in which they needed double overtime to win that game. Their strength of schedule had been very light with Nebraska possibly being their best opponent (according to the laptops) and Illinois offering their stiffest defensive challenge.
Remarkably, the Golden Gophers had not played a full game against a team that did not need to use their backup quarterback since the second game of the season. But I still considered Minnesota a dangerous home underdog against an (overrated) Penn State team in what was their biggest game yet in the P.J. Fleck era as a head coach. Fleck is a great football coach who has quickly put his stamp on the culture of this Golden Gophers program after previously building Western Michigan into a non-Power Five conference powerhouse. Yet Minnesota was very fortunate to pull off the upset last week as they needed three interceptions in the Red Zone to stifle Nittany Lion drives and overcome getting outgained by -58 net yards. The Minnesota defense was exposed along the way by surrendering a whopping 518 yards at home to the Penn State offense. This Golden Gophers team has now won all five of their games decided by one scoring possession. But the assignment gets even tougher with this trip to Iowa City to play in Kinnick Stadium where they have not won more than once in the last thirty years. Minnesota has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 road games as an underdog getting no more than 7 points. The Golden Gophers has had Lady Luck on their side all season — they are 13th in the nation by averaging +0.78 net turnovers per game this year. But the bouncing football can be fickle as to where it travels — especially in hostile environments. Minnesota has won the turnover battle in three straight games — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after enjoying a +1 or better turnover margin in at least two straight contests. Iowa is just 1-3 in games decided by one scoring possession — so a few lucky breaks going their way would have dramatically changed the stakes they have in this game. Yet they can still play the role of spoiler which this Hawkeyes program often relishes when playing at home. They return home after playing their last two games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 24 games after a two-game road stand. Iowa plays outstanding defense — they rank 4th in the nation by allowing just 11.7 PPG. They are 10th in the nation in total defense by surrendering only 288.9 total YPG with a balanced unit that is 20th in the FBS against the run (111.3 rushing YPG) and 10th against the pass (177.6 passing YPG). Their three losses have been decided by a mere 14 combined points. They are 4-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of +20.0 PPG due to their offense that plays much better in those friendly environments where they are scoring 30.8 PPG along averaging 453.0 total YPG. Iowa has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 22 games as the favorite — and they are a perfect 6-0 straight-up while covering the point spread in 5 of those 6 games when favored by no more than 3 points since 2015. The Hawkeyes also do a great job in protecting the football as they have only committed two combined turnovers in their last three-games after turning the ball over once against the Badgers. Iowa has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. And while the Hawkeyes have won the turnover battle in three straight games, they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning the turnover battle in at least two straight games.

FINAL TAKE: Iowa won last year’s battle for the Floyd of Rosedale Trophy with their 48-31 win at Minnesota in a game where junior quarterback Nate Stanley passed for 314 yards with four touchdowns. Stanley will certainly be confident he can lead his team to another victory today. Look for the Gophers’ luck to run out and their bubble to burst. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (336) minus the points versus the Minnesota Golden Gophers (335). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Georgia (8-1) has won three straight games since their loss to South Carolina after their 27-0 shutout victory over Missouri as an 18.5-point favorite last week. Auburn (7-2) has won two of their last three games with their 20-14 win over Ole Miss two weeks ago as a 17-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Georgia has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Bulldogs sport an elite defense that has not allowed more than 20 points all season. Georgia ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing just 10.1 PPG while also ranking 5th in the nation with a total defense of 260.3 YPG. Over their last three games, the Bulldogs are giving up a mere 5.7 PPG along with just 217.7 total YPG. Georgia is growing more and more reliant on their defense as their offense is scoring -4.0 PPG over their last four games than their season average up to that point. The Bulldogs have been exposed in lacking vertical threats in their passing game which has allowed their opponents to push one of their defensive backs into the box. Over their last three games, Georgia is scoring just 24.0 PPG along with averaging only 335.7 total YPG. The Bulldogs have played 4 straight games Under the Total against conference opponents — and the Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total as the favorite. Auburn has seen the Under go 16-6-1 in their last 23 games after a point spread win. Freshman quarterback Bo Nix might have played his best game of the season last week by completing 30 of 44 passes for 340 yards while leading the Tigers offense to generate 507 total yards. But Auburn has played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Nix has still been up-and-down this season as he is completing only 56.5% of his passes. The Tigers put up big numbers against their weaker competition — but they are scoring only 20 PPG against ranked opponents while scoring just 16.5 PPG in their two losses. This Auburn team is also outstanding on the defensive side of the football. The Tigers rank 13th in the nation by allowing just 17.4 PPG while also ranking 28th in the FBS by giving up only 333.4 total YPG. In their four games at home, they are limiting their visitors to just 14.7 PPG and 286.0 total YPG. Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They held the Rebels two weeks ago to 266 total yards — and they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Remember, Auburn limited an LSU offense that just torched Alabama to just 23 points. Moving forward, the Under is 23-10-1 in the Tigers’ last 34 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, Auburn has played 35 of their last 54 games Under the Total when listed in the +/- 3-point range — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total in November.

FINAL TAKE: Both these teams have defenses that are continuing to improve. Georgia has allowed -4.7 PPG over their last four games while Auburn has given up -4.0 PPG over their last four contests. These two teams have played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total — expect another lower scoring game. 25* CFB SEC Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Georgia Bulldogs (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). THE SITUATION: Boise State (7-1) rebounded from their 3-point loss at BYU last week with a 52-42 win at San Jose State last Saturday as a 16.5-point favorite. Wyoming (6-2) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four contests with their 31-3 win over Nevada as a 12-point favorite two weeks ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS: Wyoming’s victory over the Wolf Pack was preceded by a 23-10 win at home over New Mexico the previous week — but that might be setting them up for a letdown now. The Cowboys have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning two straight games by at least 10 points against fellow Mountain West Conference opponents. Now Wyoming goes back on the road where they are just 1-2 this season while being outgained by -98.0 total YPG. This Cowboys team typically enjoys a nice home-field advantage when playing in the high altitude in Laramie — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 27 of their last 40 games on the road after winning two of their last three games. Compounding the matter for this Wyoming team is that they lost their starting quarterback, Sean Chambers, to a season-ending knee injury in that victory over Nevada. Tyler Vander Waal takes over again under center after completing just 3 of 10 passes against the Wolf Pack after the Chambers injury. Vander Waal was initially the starting quarterback last year but after an 0-4 start where the Cowboys were scoring only 11.5 PPG, he was benched for Chambers. Vander Waal made nine starts last year but eclipsed 200 passing yards only twice in those games. Perhaps the biggest spark that Chambers provided this team was with his mobility — he has rushed for 567 yards with 10 touchdowns on the ground this season. Wyoming is only completing 40.6% of their passes this season so the lack of mobility with Vander Waal limits the Cowboys’ effectiveness in obvious passing situations. Wyoming will be challenged by a stout Broncos run defense that is tied for 23rd in the nation by allowing only 116.3 rushing YPG. Boise State should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. The Broncos have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. Boise State has not covered the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 39 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The Broncos did generate 468 yards last week — and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the defense has been an issue for this team as of late as they surrendered 497 yards to the Spartans. Boise State is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The Broncos have not allowed more than 123 rushing yards in four straight games which should serve them well against this Cowboys team — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in four straight games. Boise State returns home where they are 4-0 with an averaging winning margin of +18.8 PPG. The Broncos are scoring 37.0 PPG at home while limiting their guests to just 18.2 PPG along with only 302.2 total YPG — they are outgaining their visitors by +148.0 net YPG. Boise State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 home games — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games in November.

FINAL TAKE: Wyoming has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. With the Broncos still controlling their fate to reach the Mountain West Conference championship game, look for them to secure a dominant victory against an undermanned Cowboys offense. 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year with the Boise State Broncos (156) minus the points versus the Wyoming Cowboys (155). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). THE SITUATION: Vanderbilt (2-6) has lost three of their last four games with their 24-7 loss at South Carolina last Saturday as a 15-point underdog. Florida (7-2) has lost two of their last three games with their 24-17 loss to Georgia last week as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Gators have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Florida’s offense sputtered last week as they managed only 278 total yards against the Bulldogs defense. The lack of a credible rushing attack is the Achilles’ heel of this Florida team — they average only 128.9 rushing YPG which is 70th in the nation. Over their last three games, the Gators are scoring 27.7 PPG while averaging just 363.0 total YPG which is far below their 30.8 PPG and 403.9 total YPG averages. Now this team returns home to Gainesville where they are 4-0 this season while playing outstanding defense. Florida has held their four guests to just 4.0 PPG along with only 237.5 total YPG. The Gators have played 6 straight games at home Under the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 8 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. And in their last 17 home games when laying 21.5 to 28 points, Florida has played 13 of these games Under the Total. Vanderbilt has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread loss. The Commodores only gained 189 yards last week against the mediocre Gamecocks defense. Junior quarterback Duece Wallace has been tapped as the starter for this game with Ball State transfer Riley Neal out for this game with a concussion. Wallace completed just 8 of 17 passes in relief last week against South Carolina  for just 30 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Vanderbilt managed only 76 passing yards overall last week — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. The Commodores will struggle to score points — they are averaging just 17.0 PPG while averaging just 317.1 total YPG which rank 123rd and 115th in the nation. The Vandy rushing attack is not likely to bail Wallace out in this game either as they are averaging just 125.9 rushing YPG which is 109th in the nation. Florida is 11th in the nation by allowing only 16.7 PPG — and they also rank 31st in the FBS by giving up just 123.6 rushing YPG. The Commodores particularly struggle to move the football on the road where they are scoring only 12.3 PPG while averaging 314.7 total YPG. Vanderbilt has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 5 straight road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. And while the Commodores have played five straight Unders, they have then played 17 of their last 23 road games Under the Total after playing at least two straight Unders. If there is a bright spot for Mason’s team as the season progresses, it has been the improved play of their defense. Over their last three games, Vanderbilt has allowed 24.0 PPG along with 370.3 total YPG which is more than 10 points and 80 YPG below their season averages. The Commodores have played 7 of their last 8 games Under the Total against fellow SEC opponents — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total in the month of November.

FINAL TAKE: Vanderbilt has played 9 of their last 11 road games Under the Total as a big underdog getting more than three touchdowns. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Vanderbilt Commodores (143) and the Florida Gators (144). Best of luck for us — Frank (who also will have his 25* CFB Saturday Night ESPN Game of the Year and the LSU-Alabama ATS winner as part of his Saturday CFB card).

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). THE SITUATION: Temple (5-3) has lost two in a row after their 63-21 loss to Central Florida back on October 26th as an 11-point underdog. South Florida (4-4) has won three of their last four games with their 45-20 win at East Carolina as a 1-point favorite on October 26th.

REASONS TO TAKE THE OWLS MINUS THE POINTS: This is a critical game for first-year head coach Rod Carey with the bad loss at home to Central Florida preceded by a 45-21 loss at SMU the previous week. Carey does have the benefit of extra time and preparation for this game to right the proverbial ship of this Owls team. He inherited a group that has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 31 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, Temple has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit loss at home — and they have covered the point spread in 39 of their last 58 games after a loss by at least 20 points. The Owls managed only 266 yards of offense against the Knights — but they have then covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Temple also surrendered 614 yards to Central Florida in that loss — but they have then covered the point spread in 37 of their last 53 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. This remains a quality team that upset the Memphis team last month that handed the Mustangs their first loss of the season last week. The Owls have also covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games in November. South Florida may be due for a letdown for this game as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win. This team is also just 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a bye week. The Bulls’ success against the Pirates in their last game was propelled by their rushing for 347 yards which took the pressure off redshirt freshman quarterback Jordan McCloud who has been pressed into duty after the September season-ending injury to returning starter Blake Barnett. McCloud only attempted 12 passes in that victory — but South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. The Bulls are averaging just 172.9 passing YPG which is 110th in the nation. Now South Florida returns home where they are just 2-2 this season with an average losing margin of -8.3 PPG along with being outgained by -118.5 net YPG. The Bulls have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games when playing at home.

FINAL TAKE: South Florida has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. They raced out to a 7-1 start last season before folding down the stretch with six straight losses where they were outscored by -19.2 PPG under head coach Charlie Strong. Look for Temple to rebound with a big win for them on the road. 5* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Year with the Temple Owls (111) minus the point(s) versus the South Florida Bulls (112). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:44 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). THE SITUATION: SMU (8-0) remained undefeated this season with their 34-31 win at Houston as a 12-point favorite back on October 24th. Memphis (7-1) has won their last two games with their 42-41 win at Tulsa as a 10-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Mustangs’ 34 points last week was their lowest scoring output all season — they had scored at least 37 points in each of their previous seven contests. SMU ranks 6th in the nation by scoring 43.0 PPG — and they rank 10th in the FBS by averaging 504.1 total YPG with a balanced offense that ranks 31st in the nation in averaging 202.8 rushing YPG and 17th in the nation in passing with their 301.4 passing YPG mark. Senior quarterback Shane Buechele has been a revelation for this team after transferring from Texas — he is completing 63.2% of his passes with 20 touchdown passes and seven interceptions with a loaded group of wide receivers. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 6 straight games Over the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. This is a big-play offense that has registered plays of at least 40 yards sixteen times this season. The SMU defense has not been as sharp — they rank 68th in the nation by allowing 27.8 PPG while also ranking 60th in the FBS by allowing 387.6 total YPG. They allowed the depleted Houston offense with their top quarterback and wide receiver redshirting for next season to 510 yards of offense. The Mustangs have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. And while SMU enjoyed a +2 net turnover margin in that game, they have then played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a game where they had a +2 or better net turnover margin. The Mustangs stay on the road where they have played 8 of their last 10 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Memphis has played 20 of their last 28 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 10 of their last 12 games at home Over the Total after winning at least two straight games. The Tigers generated 498 yards in that game — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis has also played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest. Led by junior quarterback Brady White, the Tigers are 10th in the nation by averaging 39.5 PPG and they also rank 23rd in the nation by averaging 470.6 total YPG. Memphis has scored at least 35 points in six of their games while reaching at least 42 points in three of their last four games. Their lone loss was on the road at Temple against an Owls team that plays solid defense. The Tigers did surrender a whopping 584 yards last week to the Golden Hurricanes — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Memphis returns home for this big American Athletic Conference clash where they have played 35 of their last 52 home games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The Tigers have played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total in November while SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in November. With ESPN’s Gameday crew taking place at Memphis for this nationally televised night game, expect a wild high scoring contest. 25* CFB Saturday Night ABC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the SMU Mustangs (359) and the Memphis Tigers (360). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). THE SITUATION: Navy (6-1) has won four straight games after their 41-38 win over Tulane last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite. Connecticut (2-6) snapped their six-game losing streak on Saturday with their 56-35 win at UMass as a 9.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. Connecticut raced out to a 35-21 lead going into halftime against the Minutemen but they have then played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total after they scored at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Don’t read too much in the 542 yards of offense that the Huskies generated last week since that was against a UMass team that is last in the FBS in total defense. Take away Connecticut’s numbers in their two victories against UMass (probably wth worst team in the FBS) and Wagner (an FCS school) — and the Huskies are scoring only 15.5 PPG along with just 303.5 total YPG while never scoring more than 23 points in their six losses. Connecticut returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total — and they have played 8 of their last 10 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Furthermore, the Huskies have played 13 of their last 15 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. And in their last 6 games as an underdog in the 21.5 to 31 point range, Connecticut has played 5 of these games Under the Total. Navy allowed 290 passing yards last week to the Green Wave — but they have then played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. They also have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. First-year defensive coordinator Brian Newberry has the Midshipmen defense playing at a very high level once again — they are 19th in the FBS by allowing only 19.3 PPG while also ranking 22nd in the nation by giving up just 310.3 total YPG. They will be encountering a freshman quarterback in Jack Zergiotis who was helped out last week by running back Kevin Mensah who rushed for 164 yards while reaching the end zone five times. Head coach Randy Edsall wants his team to play physical where they control the Time of Possession: they are averaging 33 minutes per game on offense after holding the ball for 34:58 last week against UMass. But they now face a Navy defense that limits opposing rushers to just 3.3 Yards-Per-Carry while ranking 18th in the nation by allowing only 109.6 rushing YPG. And the Midshipmen formula for success is also controlling the clock as they average 33:39 minutes with the ball per game. Navy has generated 454 and 457 yards over their last two games while averaging 6.98 Yards-Per-Play and 7.25 YPP in those contests. The Midshipmen have then played 17 of their last 25 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight games — and they have played 16 of their last 22 games Under the Total after averaging at least 6.25 YPP in two straight games. Navy has also played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: The Midshipmen’s spread triple option has propelled them to leading the nation by averaging 350.7 rushing YPG — and this is how they control the Time of Possession statistic. Navy only passed for 68 yards last week — and they have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after failing to pass for at least 125 yards in their last game. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (307) and the Connecticut Huskies (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). THE SITUATION: Appalachian State (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 30-3 win at South Alabama last Saturday as a 27.5-point favorite. Georgia Southern (4-3) has won three straight games after their 41-7 win over New Mexico State as a 13.5-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS MINUS THE POINTS: Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a double-digit win on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after win on the road against a conference rival. The Mountaineers have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a win by at least 20 points. This is a loaded team for first-year head coach Eyah Drinkowitz with fifteen starters back from the group that finished 11-2 last year. Reigning Sun Belt Conference Offensive Player of the Year, quarterback Zac Thomas, is completing 66.7% of his passes this season while averaging 7.6 Yards-Per-Pass Attempt. Appalachian State is 9th in the nation by averaging 41.0 PPG. While Thomas has kept opposing defenses honest with his arm, the Mountaineers are 14th in the nation by averaging 244.1 rushing YPG. On defense, Appalachian State is 18th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 19.0 PPG. The Mountaineers held the Jaguars last week to just 139 total yards — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Appalachian State has also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Mountaineers return home where they are 4-0 while outscoring their opponents by +27.5 PPG due to their offense that is averaging 51.5 PPG along with 476.0 total YPG. Appalachian State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Georgia Southern is considered better than their record given injuries they sustained in the early part of the season — headlined by three-year starter Shai Werts at quarterback. Werts’ return to the field helped trigger their three-game winning streak — but this team was fortunate to survive a two overtime game with South Alabama and a three overtime thriller with Coastal Carolina before their easy win over the Aggies last week. The Eagles have rushed for at least 310 yards in three straight games while outrushing all three of these opponents by at least 175 yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 225 yards in two straight games and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after outrushing their last two opponents by at least 125 yards. But Georgia Southern is one dimensional as they are averaging just 48.7 passing YPG which is last in the nation. They will be trying to run against a solid Mountaineers run defense that holds their opponents to just 3.89 Yards-Per-Carry. Now the Eagles go back on the road where they are just 1-2 while being outscored by -17.4 PPG and being outgained by -139 total YPG. Georgia Southern has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games when playing on field turf.

FINAL TAKE: Appalachian State has won thirteen straight games with their last loss being at Georgia Southern where they were upset by a 34-14 score despite being an 11-point favorite back on October 25th. The Mountaineers should be very motivated to avenge that loss — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 25 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Game of the Year with the Appalachian State Mountaineers (304) minus the points versus the Georgia Southern Eagles (303). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). THE SITUATION: Colorado State (2-5) takes the field again after their bye week after their 35-21 win at New Mexico as a 5-point favorite back on October 11th. Fresno State (3-3) comes off a 56-27 win over UNLV last Saturday as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bulldogs have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a Mountain West Conference rival — and they have played 8 straight games Under the Total after a win at home by at least 17 points. Fresno State has also played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Bulldogs defense has been a disappointment this season after they allowed only 321.6 total YPG which was 17th in the nation. Six starters are back from that unit but they are allowing 370.3 total YPG which is 54th best in the FBS. That number does drop to just 346.3 total YPG in their three games at home this season which helps explain why they have played 6 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Furthermore, Fresno State has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. Colorado State has played 5 straight games Under the Total after losing four or five of their last six games — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Junior quarterback Patrick O’Brien completed 25 of 34 passes for 420 yards against the hapless Lobos defense two weeks ago while leading the Rams’ offense to 551 total yards of offense. But Colorado State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total after passing for at least 350 yards — and they have played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 525 yards in their last contest. The Rams are averaging a robust 470.1 total YPG this season which is 21st best in the nation — but that number does drop almost by 30 when they are playing on the road where they are averaging 442.2 total YPG. Colorado State ranks 13th in the nation by allowing just 177.0 passing YPG but that number has been skewed a bit by them playing some run-oriented opponents. Teams can run on the Rams defense as they rank 121st in the nation by allowing 220.7 rushing YPG. New Mexico rushed for 256 yards against them while outgaining them on the ground by +125 net rushing yards — and this focus on the rushing game helped keep the clock moving to achieve the Under in that game. Colorado State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after being outrushed by at least 125 yards in their last contest. Over their last three games. head coach Mike Bobo’s team is scoring only 23.0 PPG while averaging just 360.7 total YPG — but they have also only allowed 26.3 PPG (-8.0 PPG below their season average) along with just 342.3 total YPG (-55.4 net YPG below their season average).

FINAL TAKE: Colorado State has played 6 straight games in Mountain West Conference play Under the Total — and Fresno State has played 21 of their last 27 games Under the Total in MWC play. Expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB ESPNU Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado State Rams (155) and the Fresno State Bulldogs (156). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). THE SITUATION: Missouri (5-2) looks to bounce-back from their 21-14 upset loss at Vanderbilt last Saturday as a 21-point favorite. Kentucky (3-4) comes off a 21-0 loss at Georgia last Saturday as a 23.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: It took me some time to get exactly to the bottom of the Kentucky quarterback situation. Junior quarterback Terry Wilson suffered a likely season-ending knee injury in the first month of the season. Junior Sawyer Smith became the starter under center after but he got banged up with shoulder and wrist injuries that compelled head coach Mark Stoops to move wide receiver Lynn Bowden, Jr. to be his starting quarterback given the season-ending injury to freshman Nik Scalzo who was third on the depth chart to the begin the season. This is a case of Stoops putting the football in the hands of his best offensive talent — and he did look dynamic in rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries against the Bulldogs defense last week. But Bowden only completed 2 of his 17 passes in that game for 17 yards. Admittedly, the weather conditions were challenging for the passing game with the rain and high winds — but how much can we expect in the passing game from a converted wide receiver. Smith was suited up to play in that Georgia game but Stoops indicated that he did not feel comfortable playing him in that bad weather. Smith is on the injured list this week as questionable with a bye week coming up for Kentucky — so what is the deal with them at QB this week? Mum is the word as of this late afternoon — but I have decided this situation is worthy of a strong investment. I suspect both quarterbacks will play tonight. Even is Smith plays, he is completing only 46.2% of his passes while averaging just 5.7 Yards-Per-Attempt with four TD passes and five interceptions. I don’t have confidence in Bowden operating the passing game — so this is a one-dimensional offense that will be playing Mizzou. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 14 points in their last game. Now the Wildcats return home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight home games in the second half of the season. Kentucky has covered the point spread in two straight games as well as five of their seven games this season. But the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after covering the point spread in two of their last three games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven games. Kentucky is covering point spreads due to their defense ranks 47th in the nation by allowing just 23.3 PPG. And while the Wildcats have allowed just 122 and 35 passing yards in each of their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in two straight contests. Missouri should be primed for a big effort as they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after an upset loss on the road where they were laying at least 7 points. The Tigers have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a straight-up loss while they have also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread loss. Senior quarterback Kelly Bryant played one of his worst games in a Missouri uniform by completing just 13 of 26 passes for 140 yards — but the former Clemson quarterback did rush for 72 yards. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Mizzou should score their share of points — but it is their outstanding defense that should lead the way for them tonight. The Tigers are 14th in the nation by allowing just 16.6 PPG — and they rank 7th in the nation by giving up just 270.1 total YPG. This is a balanced defensive unit that ranks 26th in the nation in run defense and 6th in the nation in pass defense.

FINAL TAKE: Missouri should be able to rely on the cover skills of their defensive backs to then stuff the box to stop the Wildcats run while shadowing Bowden for his potential running plays from the pocket. The Tigers have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record. 5* CFB SEC Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (157) minus the points versus the Kentucky Wildcats (158). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (4-3) has suffered two straight upset losses after their 45-27 loss at home to Baylor last Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. Iowa State (5-2) has won three straight games with their 34-24 win at Texas Tech as a 10-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State feels like they left one slip after holding a 4th quarter lead over the Bears before allowing them to score 21 straight points over the final 10 minutes of that game. That loss came on the heels of a 45-35 upset loss at Texas Tech as a 9.5-point favorite the previous week. The Cowboys should respond with a strong effort as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread setback. Additionally, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after an upset loss by at least two touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 16 games after a double-digit loss a tome. And while the Cowboys have lost three of their last four games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 straight games after losing three of their last four games. Oklahoma State needs to tighten up on defense after allowing 536 yards to Baylor last week — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Turnovers are also killing this team — they have turned the ball over eight times over the last two weeks and their -2 net turnover margin last week was punctuated by allowing a 20-yard fumble recovery for a touchdown. The Cowboys are tied for 123rd in the nation with a -1.29 net turnover margin per game — but the Regression Gods tend to intervene when numbers like that get too skewed. Oklahoma State has not forced more than one turnover in three straight games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force more than one turnover in three straight contests. The Cowboys are led by running back Chuba Hubbard who leads the nation with 1265 rushing yards this season — he is averaging a remarkable 180.7 rushing YPG. He leads the way for an Oklahoma State offense that is 7th in the FBS by averaging 519.9 total YPG. This offense travels — they are scoring 39.2 PPG while averaging 516.0 total YPG away from home. The Cowboys are dangerous underdogs with their powerful offense — they have covered the point spread in 6 straight games as the underdog. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 35 of their last 53 games with the Total set in expected high scoring games with the Toal set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Iowa State has won three straight games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 16 games after winning five or six of their last seven games. They are also just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games after a straight-up win. Sophomore quarterback Brock Purdy completed 23 of 32 passes for 378 yards last week against the Red Raiders while leading the offense to 564 total yards. But the Cyclones have failed to move the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after passing for at least 375 passing yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 14 games after gaining at least 525 total yards in their last contest. Additionally, Iowa State has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 6 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: The Cyclones may not be able to help themselves to look ahead to their off week coming up after this game before showdowns with Texas and Oklahoma — and they are feeling good about themselves with their new Top-25 ranking. But the Cowboys will remember their 48-42 upset loss at home to Iowa State last season as a 10-point favorite. Expect a close game where Oklahoma State will be in a position to pull the upset. 25* College Football Underdog of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (169) plus the points versus the Iowa State Cyclones (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). THE SITUATION: USC (4-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-14 win over Arizona at home as a 10.5-point favorite. Colorado (3-4) has lost there straight games after their 41-10 loss at Washington State as a 13.5-point underdog last week.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Trojans have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win — and they have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread victory. USC has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. This Trojans team has been riddled with injuries which leaves them with a freshman at quarterback and tailback for tonight’s game. True freshman Kedon Slovis is under center for the team after the injuries to sophomore quarterbacks J.T. Daniels and Jack Sears. At running back, injuries junior Stephen Carr, junior Vavaeu Malepeai, and freshman Markese Stepp who is not out three to five weeks with an ankle injury leave the primary rushing duties to freshman Kenan Christon. Admittedly, Slovis has played well this season and Christon had 100 rushing yards last week but the challenge will be different for these inexperienced players when playing in a hostile environment — especially in a televised night game. While USC averages 30.7 PPG and 434.1 total YPG this season, those numbers drop to just 22.7 PPG along with 417.7 total YPG. The Trojans have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total — and they have played 4 of their last 5 road games Under the Total against teams with a losing record at home. Additionally, USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against Pac-12 opponents — and they have also played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range. Colorado is struggling on offense after gaining only 320 yards against the Cougars defense last week. The Buffaloes are averaging just 14.3 PPG along with only 371.7 total YPG which are both well below their 26.6 PPG and 407.7 total YPG averages. Colorado has then played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. The Buffaloes have allowed at least 31 points in four straight games — but they have then played 7 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. Colorado does return home after playing two straight games as well as three of their last four games on the road — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. And while the Buffaloes surrendered 368 passing yards to Washington State last week, they have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after allowing at least 250 passing yards in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Colorado has played 14 of the last 20 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in October. First-year head coach Mel Tucker was an outstanding defensive coordinator at Georgia and Alabama so I still have confidence he will get his young defense to play better in the second half of the season. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the USC Trojans (105) and the Colorado Buffaloes (106). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). THE SITUATION: SMU (7-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-21 win at home against Temple as a 9-point favorite on Saturday. Houston (3-4) enters this game coming off a 24-17 win at UConn as a 21-point favorite last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars changed their priorities this season after their 38-31 loss at Tulane that dropped them to 1-3 this season. First-year head coach was then reported to ask a number of his players to redshirt the rest of the season so as they could retain their eligibility for next season. Senior quarterback D’Eriq King and senior wide receiver Keith Corbin were two of the players to decide to remain their eligibility for next season. Some have called this the college version of tanking although Houston has since won two of their last three games. Frankly, Holgorsen still has every incentive to win games — especially on national television — to help with recruiting. But he needs to change his style of play with his top playmakers on offense being saved for next season. His son, Logan, was the starter last week against the Huskies where they managed only 286 yards of offense against a UConn team that had allowed at least 31 points in their previous five games. The freshman will likely give way to sophomore Clayton Thune who was out that game with a hamstring injury. The sophomore is completing only 53.2% of his passes this season. Holgorsen has seen his offense pass the ball less since King redshirted as Houston has attempted 20, 30, and 18 passes in each of their last three games. The Cougars have run the ball in 61% of their plays from scrimmage since the King and Corbin redshirt decisions — and running the football will likely remain the formula tonight to keep the powerful Mustangs offense off the field. Houston has averaged 355.7 total YPG over their last three games which is almost 40 YPG below their 393.6 total YPG season average. The Cougars have seen better numbers on defense in those three games as they have held those opponents to 26.7 PPG along with 429.3 total YPG which is high but is still over 40 yards below their 470.3 total YPG average for the season. Houston has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after a point spread loss — and they have played 20 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a victory where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. The Cougars have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. SMU has seen improved play with their defense as well this season with nine starters and eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year back. The Mustangs allowed 35.3 PPG along with 429.8 total YPG last year — and those numbers have dropped to a 27.3 PPG mark this season along with 370.1 total YPG (54th in the FBS). After not allowing more than 32 points in five of their last six games last season, SMU has allowed more than 30 points just twice this year. The Mustangs have played 10 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning two straight games against conference opponents. And while senior quarterback Shane Buechele attempted 53 passes last week, SMU has played 8 of their last 12 games Under the Total after attempted at least 50 passes in their last game. And while the Mustangs generated 655 yards of offense against the Owls last week, they have then played 8 of their last 13 games Under the Total after gaining at least 500 yards in their last game. Additionally, SMU has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total played on field turf — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total in October.

FINAL TAKE: Even undermanned, the Cougars will be fired up to play this game after they were upset by the Mustangs by a 45-31 scored as a two-touchdown favorite last November. These two teams have now played 5 of their last 6 meetings Under the Total. With the Total set in the upper-60s, expect a lower scoring game. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between SMU Mustangs (103) and the Houston Cougars (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). THE SITUATION: Oregon (5-1) has won four games in a row with their 45-3 win over Colorado last Friday as a 23.5-point favorite. Washington (5-2) comes off a 51-27 win at Arizona last Saturday as a 6-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points. Oregon has also played 7 straight games on the road Under the Total after a victory — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. This team is playing outstanding defense under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos who came over from Boise State. The Ducks rank 3rd in the nation by allowing just 8.7 PPG — and they also rank 8th in the nation by surrendering only 267.7 total YPG. Oregon has not allowed more than 7 points in five straight games — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 7 points in their last contest. The Ducks are averaging 36.0 PPG on offense led by their NFL prospect at quarterback in Justin Herbert. But in their two games on the road — both against quality defenses — Oregon sees their scoring average drop to just 21.0 PPG along with averaging only 326.0 total YPG. A big concern for this team is their Red Zone offense where they rank just 102nd in the nation. The Ducks have played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Oregon did support their defense last week by rushing for 252 yards against the Buffaloes — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last game. Furthermore, the Ducks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Washington has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a point spread win. The Huskies have also played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a win versus a Pac-12 rival — and the Under is 11-5-1 in their last 17 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Washington team also plays very good defense — they rank 28th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. Visitors are scoring only 17.0 PPG at Husky Stadium while averaging just 336.7 total YPG. Washington has played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. The Huskies’ offense has been inconsistent — they rank just 57th in the nation by averaging 423.1 total YPG. They did rush for 207 yards last week at Arizona — and they have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards. Additionally, Washington has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 19 of their last 26 home games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in their last contest.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing at Washington. And the forecasts call for rain this afternoon which will make both Herbert and the Huskies’ Jacob Eason uncomfortable. 25* CFB Saturday ABC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Oregon Ducks (367) and the Washington Huskies (368). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). THE SITUATION: Iowa (4-2) has lost two straight games after their 17-12 loss at home to Penn State last Saturday as a 3.5-point underdog. Purdue (2-4) comes off a 40-14 upset win over Maryland last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa has faced a difficult track as of late with a trip to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in which they lost by a 10-3 score where they were 4.5-point underdogs before hosting the Nittany Lions last week. The Hawkeyes outplayed Penn State for most of that game as they outgained them by a 356 to 294 yardage margin. A -2 net turnover margin played a large role in dooming Iowa last week. Iowa should respond with a big effort this afternoon. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after only covering the point spread once in their last three games. Iowa should get their offense going again against this suspect Boilermakers' defense after facing two of the toughest defenses in the nation. The Hawkeyes have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Iowa has only rushed for 71 combined yards over their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to rush for at least 125 yards in two straight games. Iowa is still averaging 32.0 PPG at home this season where they are generating a robust 475.7 total YPG. Senior quarterback Nate Stanley is leading an offense that is averaging a healthy 256.0 passing YPG. Purdue may be just what the proverbial doctor ordered as they are allowing 29.8 PPG — and they rank 104th in the nation by allowing 444.5 total YPG due to a porous pass defense that is giving up 278.0 passing YPG which is 112th in the nation. The strength of this Hawkeyes team is their defense — they rank 5th in the nation respectively by allowing only 10.2 PPG and just 260.8 total YPG. At home in Kinnick Stadium, Iowa is limiting their guests to just 8.5 PPG along with 220.0 total YPG. The Hawkeyes did not force a turnover last week — but they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 26 home games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last game. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. Purdue came off a surprising performance at home against the Terrapins — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after an upset victory by at least three touchdowns. The Boilermakers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread victory. Additionally, Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a win by at least 20 points. This Boilermakers team is ravaged with injuries right now — headlined by their senior quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, out the season with a collarbone injury and their All-American wide receiver, Mondale Moore, still out with a leg injury. Redshirt freshman Jack Plummer stepped up last week by completing 33 of 41 passes for 420 yards with three touchdown passes to lead an offense that generated 547 total yards. But the assignment is much tougher this week on the road against this Hawkeyes defense. Purdue has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after gaining at least 450 yards. And the Boilermakers have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 22 road games with the Total set in the 45.5 to 49 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Purdue is also undermanned on defense with senior defensive tackle Lorenzo Neal and senior linebacker Markus Bailey (who bypassed leaving early for the NFL last year) out for the season. These absences hurt a defense that is giving up 34.5 PPG. Iowa should come close to scoring at least 35 points in this game — and their defense will not allow many points to a freshman quarterback. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month with the Iowa Hawkeyes (344) minus the points versus the Purdue Boilermakers (343). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (2-3) looks to bounce-back from their 43-24 loss at Air Force last Saturday as a 2.5-point underdog. UNLV (2-4) looks to build off their 34-10 win at Vanderbilt as a 16.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINTS: The Rebels pulled off one of the biggest victories in the five-year tenure of head coach Tony Sanchez — but he is still on the hot seat with this being a “bowl or bust” season for him. UNLV is due for an emotional letdown after pulling off that upset against a team from the SEC. The Rebels have failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 17 games after an upset victory as a road underdog — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after an upset win as a double-digit underdog. UNLV has also failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 26 games after a win on the road. As it is, the Rebels have been consistently inconsistent under Sanchez as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread victory. Defense remains an issue for this team that has allowed at least 30 PPG and over 420 total YPG in every season since 2008. This year, UNLV is tied for 108th in the nation by allowing 32.8 PPG — and they are also giving up 431.8 total YPG which is 98th in the nation. In their two conference games this year, the Rebels are allowing 45.5 PPG along with 502.5 total YPG. This sketchy defensive play will put the pressure on redshirt freshman quarterback Kenyon Oblad who will once again be under center given the knee injury suffered by Armani Rogers in late September. Rogers is available to play tonight but Sanchez tapped Oblad as his starter yesterday. UNLV had failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 road games against teams who are not winning more than 50% of their games at home. The Rebels are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in conference play. Fresno State went into halftime last week with a 24-22 lead before getting dominated by the Air Force ground game that kept the Bulldogs off the field. They had only 13 offensive plays in the second half while averaging just 1.3 Yards-Per-Play. The Bulldogs managed only 12 first downs in that game while being on offense for just 20:31 minutes — but this team has covered the point spread 8 of their last 12 games after failing to generate at least 13 first downs and being on offense for at least 26 minutes. Fresno State is also 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after a straight-up up loss. They should be able to run the ball behind Ronnie Rivers (253 rushing yards this season) to get the tempo of the game back in their favor — UNLV ranks 113th in the nation by allowing 209.7 rushing YPG. The Bulldogs managed only 268 yards last week — but they are 22-6-1 ATS in their last 29 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. Fresno State is scoring 34.5 PPG at home while averaging 408.0 total YPG — and they are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games at home. They are also 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Third-year head coach Jeff Tedford has done a great job with this program — his teams won 22 games in his first two seasons. This year would be a challenge with only nine starters returning from last year’s Mountain West Conference champions. Fresno State crushed UNLV in Las Vegas last year by a 48-3 score — and they are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in the month of October. With two non-conference losses against quality teams in Minnesota and USC, the Bulldogs still can salvage their season in their second MWC game — but it starts with a big win tonight. 25* CFB Friday CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Fresno State Bulldogs (316) minus the points versus the UNLV Rebels (315). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). THE SITUATION: Louisiana (4-2) saw their four-game winning streak snapped last Wednesday with their 17-7 loss at home to Appalachian State as a 1.5-point favorite. Arkansas State (3-3) had their two-game winning streak end back on October 5th with their 52-38 upset loss at Georgia State as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Red Wolves have played 10 of their last fourteen games Under the Total after a loss. This has lost their starting quarterback for the season after Logan Bonner’s thumb injury at the end of September. Redshirt freshman quarterback Layne Hatcher has been solid — he completed 21 of 32 passes against the Panthers for 299 yards with four touchdown passes but he also tossed two interceptions in that upset loss. But Arkansas State has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The Red Wolves surrendered a whopping 722 yards in that game to Georgia State with sixth-year head coach Blake Anderson likely learning that he cannot have his team get in a shootout with Hatcher under center. Arkansas State has played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Red Wolves defense has been a mess this season as they are giving up 535.8 total YPG. But injuries have played a factor — and this team will receive a boost tonight with the return of senior defensive tackle Kevin Thurmon who has missed the last two games with a hand injury. Moving forward, Arkansas State has played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total against Sun Belt Conference opponents — and the Under is also 43-18-2 in their last 63 games against teams with a winning record. Louisiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against fellow Sun Belt foes. They managed only 254 yards of offense last week against the Mountaineers. Junior quarterback Levi Lewis completed 13 of 24 passes but for only 131 yards. The Ragin’ Cajuns are likely to rely on their ground game which ranks 6th in the nation by averaging 282.2 rushing YPG. Louisiana is 14th in the nation by averaging 492.2 total YPG — but those numbers drop by almost 40 yards per game when they are playing away from home. The biggest improvement with this team is on defense where they returned seven starters from last year’s team that allowed 34.2 PPG (105th in the nation) along with 435.59 total YPG (97th in the FBS). This season, the Ragin’ Cajuns are 43rd in the nation by allowing just 344.8 total YPG — and they rank 32nd in the FBS by giving up just 20.7 PPG. Furthermore, the Under is 7-3-1 in Louisiana’s last 11 games in the month of October.

FINAL TAKE: Arkansas State will be looking to avenge a 47-43 upset loss at Louisiana last year that ultimately cost them the opportunity to play in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. To get revenge tonight, head coach Anderson will likely conclude that he needs to slow this game down to protect his defense. The Ragin’ Cajuns will also be looking to run the ball — expect a lower scoring game with the Total set in the high 60s. 25* CFB Thursday ESPNU Total of the Year is with Under the Total in the game between the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (305) and the Arkansas State Red Wolves (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). THE SITUATION: Troy (2-3) has lost two straight games after their 42-10 loss at Missouri as a 25.5-point underdog back on October 5th. South Alabama (1-5) has lost four straight games with their 20-17 loss in overtime to Georgia Southern as a 10-point underdog back on October  3rd.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TROJANS MINUS THE POINTS: Troy needs to establish some momentum in Sun Belt Conference action after suffering two previous upset losses to Southern Mississippi and against conference rival Arkansas State already this season. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s team that finished 10-3 after a 42-32 win over Buffalo in the Dollar General Bowl. Things have been a bit rocky for first-year head coach Chip Lindsey who took over for Neal Brown who took the head coaching job at West Virginia. But talent remains on this team — and a conference championship is still in reach as well as another bowl appearance. The Trojans have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a loss by at least 20 points. Getting senior quarterback Kaleb Barker back under center will help — he was knocked out of the game with the Tigers but he has been upgraded to probable with the extra time to prepare for this game. Troy has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game — and they are 36th in the nation in both scoring (34.6 PPG) and total yardage (450.8 YPG). The Trojans return home where they are scoring 42.7 PPG while averaging 521.7 total YPG. Troy needs to tighten up on defense — but they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The weakness for the Trojans defense is against the pass where they are allowing 308.6 passing YPG which is 124th in the FBS. But the Jaguars are not a dynamic passing team as they average just 149.0 passing YPG which is 121st in the nation. Their quarterback, Cephus Johnson, is completing only 53.6% of his passes with five touchdown passes and five interceptions. South Alabama will have trouble running the ball against this Troy defense that is 14th in the nation by allowing just 93.9 rushing YPG. The Trojans are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a losing record — and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against Sun Belt foes. The Jaguars come off their best game of the season in that narrow loss to the Eagles — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 21 games after a point spread victory. South Alabama gained only 247 yards in that game — and 135 of those yards came on two long plays. The Jaguars had only four first downs against the Georgia Southern defense (four — not a typo!). On paper, the South Alabama defense looks stout as they rank 35th in the nation by allowing just 199.3 passing YPG — but those numbers are skewed after last week when the Eagles were happy to rush the ball 66 times for 310 yards. The Jaguars are 106th in the nation by allowing 200.8 rushing YPG. Troy should be able to pass the ball against this South Alabama pass defense that allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.3% of their passes while averaging 8.5 Yards-Per-Pass-Attempt. Now the Jaguars go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 21 of their last 31 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games against teams with a losing record at home. South Alabama has turned the ball over 13 times already this season — so this nationally televised night game in a hostile environment could be challenging for them.

FINAL TAKE: Troy won last year’s Battle of the Belt last season at South Alabama by a 38-17 score — but they will still be motivated to avenge a 19-8 loss at home to the Jaguars despite being a 19-point favorite in 2017. This shapes up to be a “get right” game for Troy against a weak South Alabama team whose only win was against Jackson State. 25* CFB Wednesday ESPN2 Game of the Year with the Troy Trojans (302) minus the points versus the South Alabama Jaguars (301). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). THE SITUATION: Wyoming (4-1) takes the field again after their 53-17 win over UNLV two weeks ago as an 8-point favorite. San Diego State (4-1) looks to build off their 24-10 win at Colorado State as a 6.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cowboys have played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. And while Wyoming generated 498 yards of offense against the Rebels, the Under is then 22-7-1 in their last 30 games after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Cowboys want to run the ball as they are 2nd in the MWC by averaging 248.2 rushing YPG — but they will be running into a buzzsaw with this Aztecs defense. San Diego State leads the nation by allowing only 45.4 rushing YPG — and they are second in the FBS by limiting rushers to just 1.79 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs have not allowed a team to rush for more than 82 yards this season. Wyoming goes back on the road where the Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games. The Under is also 11-2-1 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, the Cowboys have played 11 of their last 15 games against MWC opponents — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of October. San Diego State has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Aztecs held the Rams to just 235 yards of offense in that win — and not only have they then played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game but they have also played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last contest. But San Diego State managed only 238 yards last week — and the Under is also 12-3-1 in their last 16 games after a game where they did not gain more than 275 yards. Injuries have slowed down the Aztecs ground game — they are only averaging 2.98 YPC which is 123rd in the nation while generating just 134 rushing YPG. This has placed more of the weight of the offense on the arm of senior quarterback Ryan Agnew who is solid but certainly not a spectacular gunslinger. San Diego State averages only 187 passing YPG — and head coach Rocky Long will not have his team deviate much from his run-oriented game plan. The Aztecs are scorn only 20.2 PPG this season — and that number drops to 11.5 PPG at home. But San Diego State is allowing just 11.4 PPG along with a mere 270.8 total YPG.

FINAL TAKE: The Under is 26-10-1 in the Aztecs’ last 37 games at home — and they have played 43 of their last 62 games Under the Total in the month of October. The number has dropped into the high 30s for this game — but with the loser likely eliminated from the MWC title race, expect a defensive slugfest with points hard to come by. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Wyoming Cowboys (205) and the San Diego State Aztecs (206). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (4-1) enters this rivalry game coming off a 52-0 shutout win at home against Bowling Green last Saturday as a 45.5-point favorite. USC (3-2) returns to action after their bye week that came after a 28-14 loss at Washington as a 12.5-point underdog two Saturdays ago.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FIGHTING IRISH MINUS THE POINTS: The Trojans are an imploding program in what appears to be a lame-duck final season for fifth-year head coach Clay Helton. Under his watch, USC has now lost seven of their last eleven games. The Trojans have also won just two of their last fifteen games as an underdog under Helton — so there is little chance that USC will be in a serious position to win this game tonight. The Trojans have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight road games as the underdog. And while the USC defense played well two weeks ago in their two-touchdown loss to the Huskies with the Total set in the 59 range, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after playing a game that finished Under the Total. The good news for this team is they get their freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis back after he cleared the concussion protocol. The bad news is that he is only the starter because sophomore J.T. Daniels suffered a season-ending knee injury — and the team needs him to play a veteran in a very challenging environment on the road in South Bend for this nationally televised night game. USC is just 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games on the road — and they are just 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 road games against teams with a winning record at home. The Trojans have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside Pac-12 play. And in their last 7 games in the month of October, USC has failed to cover the point spread 5 times. Notre Dame has won sixteen of their last eighteen games under head coach Brian Kelly with those two losses being on the road after Georgia last month and on a neutral field in the College Football Semifinals against Clemson. They should build off the momentum of their big win last week as they are covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a win by at least four touchdowns — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. The Irish generated 573 yards of offense in that win — and not only are they 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points but they have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after generating at least 475 yards of offense in their last game. They have a big edge under center with senior quarterback Ian Book who is leading an offense that is scoring 41.0 PPG (51.0 PPG at home) — and they will probably get their top rusher in Jafar Armstrong back for this game after he has been out since Game One with a groin injury. Notre Dame has covered the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games against teams with a winning record on the road. The Irish also boast a strong defense that has registered ten sacks over the last two weeks while allowing only 14.8 PPG this season.

FINAL TAKE: It will be cold in South Bend tonight with winds in the 10 to 20 MPH range. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a big role to help the Irish — they rank third in the nation with thirteen takeaways while leading the nation with their +10 net turnover differential. USC has a net -7 turnover margin this season — and they have not won the turnover battle in a game since the opening week of the 2018 season against UNLV which is the longest streak in the nation. 25* CFB Saturday NBC-TV Game of the Year with the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (200) minus the points versus the USC Trojans (199). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). THE SITUATION: Eastern Michigan (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 42-16 upset loss at Central Michigan last Saturday as a 4-point favorite. Ball State (2-3) looks to build off their 27-20 upset win at Northern Illinois last Saturday as a 4-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE EAGLES MINUS THE POINTS: Eastern Michigan should respond with a strong effort after last week’s disappointing performance. The Eagles have rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after a loss to a Mid-American Conference opponent — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after an upset loss to a conference foe. Furthermore, Eastern Michigan has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games after a straight-up loss while covering the point spread in 12 of their last 14 games after a point spread loss — and they have also covered the point spread in 28 of their last 39 games after a blowout loss by at least 20 points. This team has become a physical and nasty team under head coach Chris Creighton in his sixth season with the program while also embodying his mental toughness. Creighton has resurrected this program that had only won five combined games in his three seasons before going 19-19 since the start of the 2017 season. The Eagles could have had an even better record over that span as they were just 6-11 in games decided by one scoring possession entering the fall. Eastern Michigan lost five of their six games by 7 points or less last year. Additionally, the analytics for this team are skewed right now with four of their first five games being on the road. The Eagles will be playing just their second game at home this season where they have a nice home-field advantage when playing at the “Factory.” Eastern Michigan is led by a dynamic senior dual-threat quarterback in Mike Glass III who would have likely led this team to a better record last year if not for an injury that limited him to just eight games. Glass is completing 66.8% of his passes this season with 13 touchdown passes and just 5 interceptions while leading the Eagles to average 265 passing YPG. Glass led this team to an upset win at Illinois. Eastern Michigan has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in there 56.5 to 63 point range. Ball State may be due for a letdown after their upset win on the road against the Huskies last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread victory. The Cardinals eked out that game despite being outgained by Northern Illinois by -120 net yards after managing to generate a mere 269 yards of offense. That is not a good sign for them this week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after being outgained by at least 125 net yards — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. This team stays on the road for their third straight games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 13 road games as an underdog. Ball State has scored only 7 (at NC State) and 3 points in the first half of these last two games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after failing to score more than a touchdown in the first half of their last two games. And in their last 6 games in expected close contests where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Cardinals have failed to cover the point spread 5 times.

FINAL TAKE: Eastern Michigan should be confident in this game after crushing the Cardinals at Ball State by a 42-20 score last season. The Eagles have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against Ball State. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Eastern Michigan Eagles (142) minus the point(s) versus the Ball State Cardinals (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). THE SITUATION: Colorado (3-2) looks to bounce-back from their 35-30 upset loss at home to Arizona last Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite. Oregon (4-1) has won four straight games after their 17-7 win over Cal last Saturday as a 21.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: This is a bit of a contrarian play with the Total opening at 58 and now being bet up to the 60s in many spots. The Buffaloes have played in two straight high scoring affairs with their win last week preceded by a 34-30 win at Arizona State. Colorado’s defense has looked shaky by allowing 487 yards to the Wildcats after surrendering 453 yards to the Wildcats. The Buffaloes have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 475 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after giving up at least 450 yards in two straight games. Additionally, Colorado has played 4 straight games Under the Total after playing two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored — and they have placed 5 straight games Under the Total after allowing at least 31 points in two straight games. This is just the second true road game of the season for the Buffaloes who have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total on field turf. On offense, senior quarterback Steven Montez led the team to 337 passing yards for the second straight week — but they have then played 6 of their last 9 games Under the Total after passing for at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Colorado has also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total playing on a Friday night. Oregon has seen the Under go 16-5-1 in their last 22 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Justin Herbert gets most of the attention with this Ducks team — but he has led this team to just 38 combined points over their last two games against Cal and Stanford. Oregon scored 77 points against a Nevada defense that Hawai’i also ripped to shreds while also scoring only 35 points against an FCS team in Montana. But when also considering their 27-21 loss to Auburn to begin the season, the Ducks are scoring less than 20 PPG against Power-Five conference opponents. It may very well be that the concern that Herbert lacked proven dynamic weapons at running back and wide receiver may have turned out to be the case. But second-year head coach Mario Cristobal has assembled a talented defense that is thriving under first-year defensive coordinator Andy Avalos. The former Boise State coordinator is leading a group that is allowing just 9.8 PPG along with only 261.4 total YPG. The Ducks have talent at all three levels of the defense — and they held the Golden Bears to just 256 total yards of offense last week. Oregon has then played 4 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 total yards in their last game — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. The Ducks have not allowed more than 7 points in each of their last four games after that first game against the Tigers — and they have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in two straight games. Oregon stays at home where they have played 4 straight games against teams with a winning record on the road.

FINAL TAKE: The Buffaloes will want to avoid a shootout on the road at Autzen Stadium against this Ducks team — and Cristobal seems to be mimicking the identity of Nick Saban where he used to war as an assistant. Expect a lower scoring game led by the still underrated Oregon defense. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Colorado Buffaloes (113) and the Oregon Ducks (114). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). THE SITUATION: Syracuse (3-2) takes the field again after their 41-3 win over Holy Cross back on September 28th as a 40-point favorite. NC State (3-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-13 loss at Florida State as a 7-point underdog on September 28th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Orange have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Syracuse has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a win by at least five touchdowns. The Orange’s victory over Holy Cross from the FCS came after a 52-33 win at home over Western Michigan — and they have then played 13 of their last 15 games Under the Total after winning their last two games by at least 17 points. Syracuse has also played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. The Orange have struggled with their offensive line against bigger defensive lines from Power Five conferences. Syracuse only had two starters back from last year’s offensive line. The Orange are averaging just 3.4 Yards-Per-Carry this season while allowing 18 sacks already. The Wolfpack have two starters back from last year’s defensive line — but this unit has reloaded from year-to-year under head coach Dave Doeren as of late. Despite losing four players on their defensive line to the NFL last year, the NC State defense still produced a Havoc Rate of 10.8% which was a slight drop from their 11.3% Havoc Rate in 2017 with those four future NFLers. Now after playing their last two games at home, Syracuse goes back on the road where they are scoring only 22.0 PPG. The Under is 26-12-1 in the Orange’s last 39 road games against teams with a winning record at home. And int her last 7 games after not allowing more than 20 points, Syracuse has played 5 of these games Under the Total. NC State has played 21 of their last 30 home games Under the Total after a loss on the road to a fellow ACC opponent. The Wolfpack have also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Doeren will be sticking with sophomore quarterback Bailey Hockman who made his first career start in that game against the Seminoles. Hickman completed only 21 of 40 passes for 208 yards with a touchdown in that game taking over for redshirt sophomore Matthew McKay who started the first four games of the season. Finding the replacement for three-year starter, Ryan Finley, remains a work in progress for this team. NC State returns home where they have played 4 of their last 5 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. The Wolfpack defense has played much better at home where they are allowing just 9.7 PPG and only 264 total YPG. Furthermore, NC State has played 17 of their last 22 games Under the Total against teams from the ACC. And in their last 20 games played on a Thursday night, the Under is 18-1-1 for the Wolfpack.

FINAL TAKE: While I am not sure how effective this nascent NC State offense will be with just four starters back from last season and with Hockman making only his second career start, Doeren should have his defense ready to roll tonight. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Syracuse Orange (107) and the North Carolina State Wolfpack (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). THE SITUATION: Tulane (3-1) returns to the field after their 38-31 victory as a 4-point favorite over Houston back on September 19th. Army (3-1) looks to build off their 52-21 win over Morgan State two Saturdays ago as a 45.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Green Wave raced out to a 28-14 halftime lead over the Cougars for that Thursday night game over two weeks ago — and they have then played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last game. Tulane has also played 10 of their last 16 games Under the Total after a victory over a fellow American Conference West opponent. The Green Wave rushed for 325 yards in that game — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 300 yards. Tulane is 26th in the nation with their run-first offense by averaging 6.56 Yards-Per-Play. But they only scored 6 points in their lone road game this season at Auburn. But head coach Willie Fritz’s team is underrated on the defensive side of the football — they held the Tigers to only 24 points in their first road game of the year. Overall, they are holding their opponents to just 18.7 PPG along with only 340.2 total YPG. Tulane has eight starters back from last year’s team that played both Army and Navy — so this is a group experienced in dealing with the spread triple option. The Green Wave also returned all but one of their rotation players on their defensive line from last year’s group. Getting more than two weeks to prepare for this unique offense will certainly help. And Tulane has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 37 points in their last game. Now the Green Wave go back on the road where they have played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total — and they have played 5 of their last 7 road games Under the Total against teams with a winning record at home. Furthermore, Tulane has placed 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total against non-conference opponents. Army has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a victory by at least 20 points — and they have played 17 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a game where at least 70 combined points were scored. The Black Knights have also played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. And while Army generated 483 yards of offense in that game, they have played 15 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team does look to get their starting quarterback, Kelvin Hopkins, back for this game after he missed the last two games with a leg injury since the Black Knights heartbreaking 24-21 overtime loss at Michigan. Army plays outstanding defense — they are limiting their opponents to only 16.2 PPG along with just 287.7 total YPG with those numbers dropping to just 14.0 PPG when playing at home along with only 275.5 total YPG that they allow. The Black Knights thrive with their run defense as well as they are limiting their opponents to allow only 104 rushing YPG along with just 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry. Army limited Michigan to just 108 rushing yards three weeks ago — and they have had two weeks to prepare for the Green Wave run-oriented spread offense. The Black Knights have played 22 of their last 27 games Under the Total after a bye week. Moving forward, Army has played 24 of their last 33 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 8 of their last 11 home games Under the Total as an underdog of 3 points or less.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane won last year’s meeting between these two teams by a 21-17 score in New Orleans. Expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (323) and the Army Black Knights (324). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). THE SITUATION: Temple (3-1) looks to build off their 24-2 victory over Georgia Tech last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. East Carolina (3-2) has won three of their last four games after they upset Old Dominion on the road on Saturday by a 24-21 score as a 3-point dog.

REASONS TO TAKE TEMPLE MINUS THE POINTS: First-year head coach Mike Houston deserved credit for already matching East Carolina’s win total from last season. But two of the Pirates’ wins so far this season were against FCS opponents in Gardner Webb and William & Mary. The Monarchs are not a very good team this year either — and it is likely that their 32-point loss to Navy along with their 28-point loss to NC State is more indicative of where this team is at after winning only six games in their previous two seasons. This football program made a mistake in letting Ruffin McNeil go after six seasons back in 2016 after a disappointing 5-7 record in a year where they outgained their American Athletic Conference opponents by +26.5 net YPG while suffering three net close losses decided by one scoring possession. The subsequent Scottie Montgomery era was a failure with three straight 3-9 seasons. Houston inherited fourteen starters but the talent level of this roster needs to be upgraded to hang with the better teams in the conference. East Carolina is just 9-31-1 ATS in their last 41 games against American Athletic Conference opponents — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 40 of their last 53 games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, this Pirates team is due for a letdown after their upset win last week as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. They return home for this contest where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home — and they have failed to cover the point in 4 straight home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Temple should build off the momentum of their victory last week as they have over the point spread in 21 of their last 28 games after a point spread win — and they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games after a double-digit victory. Their lone loss was at Buffalo this year — but they have still covered the point spread in 43 of their last 63 games on the road which includes them covering the point spread in six of their last eight road games against teams with a winning record at home. First-year head coach Rod Carey inherited fourteen starters from last year’s team that finished 8-5 with a loss in the Independence Bowl under an interim head coach to Duke. The Owls are outscoring their opponents by +13.3 PPG while also outgaining these foes by +149.5 net YPG due. Temple is allowing only 17.2 PPG while holding their opponents to just 283.7 total YPG. They have also covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games against conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: The Owls should overwhelm the Pirates even as a double-digit favorite on the road. Temple has covered the point spread in their last 6 meetings with East Carolina — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games played on a Thursday night. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the Temple Owls (305) minus the points versus the East Carolina Pirates (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). THE SITUATION: Nevada (3-1) has won two straight games with their 37-21 win at UTEP last week as a 14-point favorite. Hawai’i (3-1) also comes off a victory with their 35-16 win at home against Central Arkansas as a 17.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WOLF PACK MINUS THE POINTS: Nevada’s season stats are skewed right now after they endured a 77-6 loss at Oregon in their second game of the season. But the Wolf Pack also have a nice upset victory over Purdue in Reno that opened up their season. Third-year head coach Jay Norvell had eleven starters return from last year’s 8-5 team that closed out their season by defeating Arkansas State by a 16-13 score. Norvell had to replace a three-year starter in Ty Gangi to operate his Air Raid offense. Redshirt freshman Carson Strong was tapped the opening day starter — and he orchestrated the comeback victory over the Boilermakers. After getting beat up in the next two games against the Ducks and Weber State, Strong did not play last week against the Golden Hurricanes but he will get the start tonight. Norvell has indicated that last week’s starter in senior Cristian Solano and former 4-star recruit at Florida State in Malik Henry may get the chance to play. The Wolf Pack are good at home where they have held their two opponents to just 328.0 total YPG. Nevada has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. The Wolf Pack have also covered their last 4 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 4 straight games in expected close contests with the point spread in the +/- 3-point range. Furthermore, Nevada has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games in Weeks Five through Nine of the season. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a win at home. Additionally, the Rainbow Warriors have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Hawaii has eighteen starters back from last year’s team that finished 8-6 — and this returning experience helped them defeat Arizona and Oregon State in their opening two games of the season before they were crushed at Washington in their lone road game this season by a 52-20 score. The Rainbow Warriors are led by junior quarterback Cole McDonald who ran their Run-and-Shoot offense last season. But turnovers have plagued him this season as he has thrown nine interceptions already this season — and Hawai’i leads the nation with 15 turnovers this year. Turnovers will likely play a big role in this game as they face a Nevada defense that has forced 10 turnovers already this year. The Rainbow Warriors have committed at least two turnovers in all four of their games this season — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after turning the ball over at least two times in three straight games. And while Hawai’i has forced only one turnover in their last three games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. The Rainbow Warriors are just 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games played in Week Five to Nine of the regular season. Hawai’i has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games as an underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i has lost eight of their last nine trips to Reno to face the Wolf Pack — and they will be in for a rude awakening regarding the weather. The forecast is for rain and temperatures dipping into the low-30s which will make operating that Run-and-Shoot offense that thrives in the balmy Maui weather difficult (while making turnovers even more likely). Nevada can lean on the ground game — and they will be facing a Rainbow Warriors that are allowing their opponents to average 6.0 Yards-Per-Carry. 25* CFB Mountain West Conference Game of the Month with the Nevada Wolf Pack (150) minus the points versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (149). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). THE SITUATION: Miami (OH) (1-3) looks to bounce-back from their embarrassing 76-5 loss at Ohio State last Saturday as a 38.5-point underdog. Buffalo (2-2) comes off a 38-22 upset win over Temple last Saturday as a 14-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REDHAWKS PLUS THE POINTS: Miami has endured a brutal non-conference schedule so far this season with losses at Iowa, Cincinnati and then the Buckeyes last week sandwiched by their Week Two win at home over Tennessee Tech. This has been par for the course for head coach Chuck Martin in his sixth year with the program. Martin has communicated that his team was hit hard with injuries after their encounter with Ohio State — but he was also able to rest most of his starters for half of that game after what was a good first quarter where they at one point had a 5-0 lead before they fell off the proverbial rails. Look for Martin to have his team ready to play this afternoon in their first conference game of the season. The Redhawks return for the first time in three weeks after losing at Cincinnati by a 35-13 score before last week’s loss in Columbus. Miami has rebounded to cover the point spread in 8 straight home games after losing their last two games on the road by double-digits. And while the Redhawks have yet to cover the point spread this season, they have then covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after failing to cover the point spread in three straight contests. Dealing with injuries is nothing new for Martin after his team endured 39 starts lost to injury last season which was ninth-most in the FBS. Miami still finished 6-6 overall after going 6-2 in conference play. Martin has been masterful in getting his team ready to play against fellow Mid-American Conference competition as the Redhawks have won sixteen of their last twenty-two conference games. Miami has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games against MAC foes. Expect his team to play tighter on defense after surrendering 601 yards to the powerful Ohio State offense. The Redhawks have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last contest. This is just the second home game for this team — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after pulling off an upset as a double-digit underdog in their last game. The Bulls limited the Owls to just 31 rushing yards and 289 total yards overall — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 75 rushing yards in their last contest. Fifth-year head coach Lance Leipold led this program to its first ten-win season in school history — but this year’s group returned just eight starters with the roster decimated by graduation, early departures to the NFL and some untimely transfers. The Bulls were a talented team last year but most of that All-Conference talent is now gone which makes this a rebuilding year for Leipold. Buffalo defeated Robert Morris to open the season before losing at Penn State and then being upset as a 5.5-point favorite at Liberty before last week’s triumph. The Bulls go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games. And they are dealing with some injuries as well with the most notable being their lone returning starter at linebacker in James Patterson. In this expected close game, Buffalo also has issues in special teams with their punter averaging just 32.6 yards per kick and their placekicker having already missed four kicks.

FINAL TAKE: Miami has freshmen at quarterback in Brett Gabbert (Blaine’s brother) and Jackson Williamson but so too does Buffalo with redshirt freshman Matt Myers who completed 9 of 15 passes last week for just 62 yards with an interception. Buffalo has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after failing to pass for more than 75 yards in their last game. While both Redhawks’ quarterbacks were banged up last week, in head coach Martin we trust in this one. Look for him to have his team ready for their conference debut on their home field after their gauntlet of a non-conference schedule. 25* CFB Mid-American Conference Game of the Month with the Miami (OH) Redhawks (124) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). THE SITUATION: Air Force (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-19 loss at Boise State last week as a 7.5-point underdog last Friday. San Jose State (2-1) looks to build off their 31-24 upset win in Fayetteville against Arkansas as a 20-point underdog on Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS: The Spartans surprising upset victory was validation for a football program under head coach Brent Brennan that had lost twenty-three of their last twenty-five games in his first two seasons with the program. Brennan has played 48 freshmen in those two years in completely rebuilding this program. Yet this remains a team that returned thirteen starters from last year’s group that was outgained by -148 net yards in Mountain West Conference play. Improvement should have been expected from this team — but they have still have a long way to go. A big emotional letdown is likely for this team after they pulled off their first victory over a Power Five conference team since 2006 when they knocked off Stanford. San Jose State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win. Senior quarterback Josh Love enjoyed the best passing day in his career by completing 32 of 49 passes for 402 yards against the Razorbacks — but the Spartans are just 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. San Jose State has also failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 22 games in the month of September. I hate this situation for this team now. This is a very challenging travel schedule for this west coast team who had to travel east last week and now has to play on a short week on the road again. And one less day to prepare for the Air Force spread triple option certainly does not help things. San Jose State was torched by Army’s similar offense last year in a 52-3 loss where they allowed 341 rushing yards on 65 carries for a 5.2 Yards-Per-Carry average. The Spartans have been vulnerable against aggressive rushing attacks this season as well — Tulsa generated 256 rushing yards against them on 54 carries and three touchdowns back on September 7th. Air Force is averaging 316 rushing YPG this season behind junior quarterback Donald Hammond III who has jumpstarted this offense. In his five starts last season, Hammond III led an offense that averages 470 YPG with the team also running at a 5.6 Yards-Per-Carry clip. Hammond III is a great fit for the spread triple option of head coach Troy Calhoun given his arm strength and quick release which compliments his speed and power as a runner. There is no shame losing at Boise State on their blue field — and they matched the Broncos 355 yards of offense while controlling the football for 34:12 minutes. The Falcons held Boise State to just 95 rushing yards last week — and they have covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last game. Air Force ranks 22nd in the nation by allowing just 91.7 rushing YPG — and they are limiting opposing rushers to only 3.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Falcons run defense that returned four of their top five tacklers from last season should make the Spartans one-dimensional with their passing attack tonight. Air Force also has a geographical on their home field in the high altitude of Colorado Springs, Colorado where they are 54-20 in their last seventy-four games. The Falcons have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games against teams who are winning at least 50% of their games at home. This is just Air Force’s second game at home this season — and hosting this Spartans team playing with one less day of rest gives them a nice advantage.

FINAL TAKE: The Falcons were 5-7 last year with their seven losses determined by just -6.3 PPG. Five of their losses were determined by one scoring possession — so they could have finished with a much better record. Fourteen returning starters for a military academy football team is a very high number — and this team demonstrated their big potential this season with their 30-23 upset victory at Colorado earlier this month. Air Force is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record — and they have covered the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games when laying 10.5 to 21 points as the favorite. While I am cautious in laying this many points, I think the Falcons grinding and tricky rushing attack will overwhelm this Spartans team due for a letdown who are playing on a short week. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Air Force Falcons (110) minus the points versus the San Jose State Spartans (109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). THE SITUATION: Memphis (3-0) looks to build off their 42-6 win at South Alabama back on September 14th as a 20.5-point favorite. Navy (2-0) comes off a 42-10 win over East Carolina two Saturdays ago back on the 14th as a 7.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: The Midshipmen are looking to rebound from just their second losing season since 2003. Head coach Ken Niumatalolo has eight starters back from last year’s 3-10 team that lost nine of their last ten games after a 2-1 start to the year. Navy has lost sixteen of their last twenty-one games after starting the 2017 season 5-0 which ranked them 25th in the nation which was their highest national standing in Niumatalolo’s twelve years with the program. Perhaps part of the problem is fellow American Athletic Conference opponents are getting come comfortable defending their unique spread triple-option attack? Talent may be an issue on defense after this team surrendered 33.5 PPG which was the most points they have allowed since 2007. Niumatalolo hired a new defensive coordinator in Brian Newberry who ran the defense for the previous four seasons at Kennesaw State. Newberry wants to deploy an aggressive and attacking system — but he may not have the playmakers yet to execute this scheme against the better teams in the conference. The Midshipmen opened the season with an easy one against Holy Cross who they crushed by a 45-7 score before their big victory over the Pirates. But Navy may be due to a letdown now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after winning their previous two games by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, the Midshipmen are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams with a winning record. This will be Navy’s first game away from home this season — and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games on the road. Memphis has started the season strong with an opening 15-10 victory over Ole Miss laying 3 points and then an easy 55-24 victory over Southern before their road games against the Jaguars. The Tigers generated 530 yards of offense at South Alabama while holding them to just 248 yards of offense. Memphis has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 27 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This offense does not seem to have missed a beat with junior quarterback Brady White back as the starting quarterback from last year’s team that scored 42.9 PPG while ranking 4th in the nation by averaging 523.1 total YPG. White is completing 72.2% of his passes while averaging 10.2 Yards-Per-Attempt while throwing five touchdowns to two interceptions. But the exciting thing about this team in head coach Mike Norvell’s team in his fourth season with the program is the improved play of the defense. Memphis is allowing only 13.3 PPG along with just 226.3 total YPG this year. The Tigers were young on that side of the ball last year — they have eight starters back from that group that allowed -37.9 fewer Yards-Per-Game than in 2017. This year’s defense is allowing only 3.1 Yards-Per-Carry which is very encouraging when facing the Navy spread triple option. The extra days to prepare for this defense will also help defensive coordinator Adam Fuller for the Midshipmen attack — and Memphis has covered the point spread in 19 of their last 26 games when playing off their bye week. Additionally, the Tigers have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 36 games when favored by 10.5 to 21 points including seven of these last eight situations.

FINAL TAKE: Norwell should have his team chomping at the bit to play this game after they suffered three net close losses determined by just one scoring possession last year. Memphis was 8-6 last year with three of those losses decided by a combined 5 points. One of those defeats was at Navy where they lost by a 22-21 score as a 6.5-point favorite. Look for the Tigers to get their revenge tonight. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Month with the Memphis Tigers (104) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (103). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). THE SITUATION: Central Florida (3-0) remained undefeated this season with their 45-27 clubbing at home against Stanford last Saturday as a 9.5-point favorite. Pittsburgh (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 17-10 loss at Penn State last week as a 17-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Knights have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a point spread win. UCF is using their third-string (or fourth string) quarterback this season with freshman Dillon Gabriel getting the snaps. Senior QB McKenzie Milton is out the season with a knee injury and his backup, Darriel Mack, missed all of training camp with an ankle injury. Second-year head coach Josh Heupel brought in Brandon Wimbush from Notre Dame as a transfer student to compete for the starting job but Gabriel’s ability to operate the up-tempo RPO system inspired by the Art Briles school of offense has kept him on the field. But this is still a true freshman playing in a hostile environment for this contest. The Knights have played 4 straight games on the road Under the Total. Gabriel led an offense that generated 545 yards of offense against the Cardinal — but UCF has played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Knights have also played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. While the offense has been getting most of the headlines for this UCF team, they have been outstanding on defense. The Knights limited the Cardinal to just 349 yards of offense last week. While they have allowed just 41 points in their three games this season, most of those points have been surrendered in garbage time in the season half. UCF has played 5 straight games Under the Total against teams with a losing record — and they have also played 30 of their last 46 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. Pittsburgh has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Junior QB Kenny Pickett completed 35 of 51 passes for 372 yards in a losing effort last week — but the Panthers have played 5 straight games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Fifth-year head coach Pat Narduzzi received plenty of criticism for going for a field goal in the 4th quarter on a 4th-and-one play on the one-yard line — an attempt that was missed — rather than going for the potential game-tying touchdown. While he deserves all the heat for that decision, it demonstrated his confidence in his defense since he assumed his offense would get the ball back again. The former Michigan State defensive coordinator is overseeing a defensive unit this year that is allowing only 19.0 PPG along with just 303.7 total YPG — and that number drops to 261.0 total YPG in their two games at home. The Panthers have played 4 straight home games Under the Total — and they have also played 5 of their last 7 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. But a troubling observation about this team is that they have not scored an offensive touchdown in the second half of their last six games.

FINAL TAKE: Pitt has played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 17 of their last 21 games Under the Total as an underdog. They will be looking to avenge a 45-13 loss at UFC last season as a 13.5-point dog. The Total of that game was in the 65.5 range — expect another lower scoring game in this one. 25* CFB Television Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Central Florida Knights (319) and the Pittsburgh Panthers (320). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Syracuse (1-2) looks to bounce-back from their 41-6 loss at home last Saturday night to Clemson as a 28-point underdog. Western Michigan (2-1) comes off a 57-10 win over Georgia State as a 9-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ORANGE MINUS THE POINTS: Syracuse should respond with a strong effort this afternoon as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss by at least 20 points. There is no shame to losing the reigning National Champions —but that setback came after a brutal 63-20 loss at Maryland the previous week. Expectations were high entering the season in what was considered the best roster yet for head coach Dino Babers in his fourth year with the program. Thirteen starters returned from last year’s 10-3 team that crushed West Virginia in the Camping World Bowl by a 34-18 score. Perhaps the loss to the Terrapins will help the team recover from the disappointment of not pulling the upset over the Tigers last week in a game they had circled on their calendar. The Orange need to get back to playing good football with sophomore quarterback Tommy Devito making good decisions, his wide receivers hanging on to the football, and the offensive line doing a better job of blocking. Syracuse has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after losing two straight games by at least three touchdowns. They should get their offense going after only managing 187 yards against Clemson. The Orange have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to score more than 20 points — and they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not generating more than 275 yards of offense in their last game. And while the Syracuse defense allowed Clemson to average 8.6 Yards-Per-Play for 612 total yards last week, they have then covered the point spread in 19 of their last 27 home games after allowing their last opponent to average at least 6.75 YPP — and they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after surrendering at least 475 yards in their last contest. The Orange do stay at home where they are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games. The Broncos may be just what the doctor ordered with their porous defense that allowed 50.8 PPG in their six losses last season. Western Michigan allowed 51 points along with 582 yards of offense in their 41-point loss to a Michigan State team that could not move the football last week in their meager 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State. That was the only Power Five conference opponent that the Broncos have faced so far this season. They did crush the Panthers last week with the help of a +3 net turnover margin — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 games after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Western Michigan has also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a point spread victory. Now the Broncos go back on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 road games against teams with a winning losing record at home. Additionally, Western Michigan has failed to cover the point spread in expected shootouts with the Total set in the 63.5 to 70 point range — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Syracuse is also 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games against teams outside the ACC — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 16 of their last 19 games against teams from the Mid-American Conference. The Orange soundly defeated the Broncos in Kalamazoo last August 31st by a 55-42 score. Look for a similar result this afternoon. 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Month with the Syracuse Orange (340) minus the points versus the Western Michigan Broncos (339). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (3-0) has won their first three games this season after their 31-0 shutout win over Idaho State last week as a 36.5-point favorite. USC (2-1) looks to bounce-back from their 30-27 upset loss at BYU in overtime last Saturday as a 4.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Utes have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. Utah has also played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Utes have scored at least 30 points in all three of their games this season in what have been all easy victories by at least 18 points. The ceiling is higher for this Utah offense led by senior quarterback Tyler Huntley and senior running back Zack Moss. Those two helped the Utes score at last 40 points in four straight games during a stretch last year before they both suffered season-ending injuries. Moss has rushed for 371 yards in his three career contests against the Trojans. Huntley is completing 78% of his passes behind an offensive line that has not allowed a sack this year. Huntley has also not thrown an interception. This offense should put up plenty of points against a suspect USC defense that allowed BYU to generate 430 yards last week. The talent at the defensive line has declined under head coach Clay Helton’s tenure — and the secondary had no returning starters from last year along with eight newcomers at cornerback in the fall. Greg Johnson was the only cornerback on the roster with starting experience but he is listed as questionable as he goes through the concussion protocol. And the Trojans’ best defensive lineman, Christian Rector, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury after not playing last week. The USC defense struggled against dual-threat QB Jorge Reyna to open the season so Huntley is poised to have a big night. Utah has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 13 of their last 19 road games Over the Total against teams with a winning record at home. USC has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a straight-up loss. The Trojans did generate 452 yards against the Cougars defense in that loss with freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis completing 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Slovis did throw three interceptions in that game — and USC has played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a game where they committed at least three turnovers. The Trojans have also played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. This team is left with Slovis being under center after sophomore Jack Sears entered the transfer portal window after losing the starting gig to J.T. Daniels who then suffered a season-ending knee injury in that opening game against Fresno State. Slovis demonstrated he can operate the new Air Raid offense under head coach Graham Harrell in his first start two weeks ago as he passed for 377 yards three touchdown passes against Stanford. Additionally, the Over is 21-9-2 in the Trojans’ last 32 home games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight contests against each other Over the Total. USC will be feisty to win this game — but they may not be able to keep up with the Utah offense. Expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the USC Trojans (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). THE SITUATION: Houston (1-2) looks to bounce-back from a 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday played on a neutral field at NRG Stadium. Tulane (2-1) comes off a 58-6 blowout win at home over Missouri State last Saturday as a 31.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cougars are allowing 32.6 PPG along with 506.0 total YPG in their first three games this season — but two of those games were against two of the most potent offenses in the nation in the Cougars and Oklahoma. I have actually been a bit encouraged by the play of this unit that returned only four starters. An influx of six junior college transfers has helped new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen begin to stabilize this unit. Houston has played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. The bigger concern for the Cougars has been integrating senior quarterback D’Eriq King into the first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen’s version of the Air Raid offense. Houston is averaging only 146 passing YPG this season (which includes a cupcake game against Prairie Valley A&M) which is 120th in the nation. King is completing only 54.5% of his passes which is almost a 10% decline from last season. King passed for just 128 yards last week against Washington State — and the Cougars have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after not passing for more than 170 yards in their last game. Houston did rush for 239 yards last week — they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 200 yards in their last contest. The Cougars are averaging 239 rushing YPG this season with an incredibly consistent output of 241, 236, and 239 rushing yards this season — so expect more of the same from this team with the added benefit of a ground game moving the clock and keeping the Green Wave offense off the field. The Under is 7-3-1 in Houston’s last 11 games in the month of September. Tulane has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points. The Green Wave held the Tigers last week to just 182 yards of offense — and they have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Tulane defense has played well this season — they limited Auburn to 379 total yards which include a mere 207 yards in the air so their ability to limit the Cougars passing attack is pretty good. On offense, senior quarterback Justin McMillan has passed for only 424 yards in his three games with just two touchdown passes. The Green Wave have played 6 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Tulane rushed for 298 yards in that contest last week — and they have played 13 of their last 17 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last contest. Furthermore, the Green Wave have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total at home.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played 4 straight games Under the Total after Houston’s 48-17 victory last season fell Under the 68 point Total. The Cougars offense is still working out some kinks this year — expect a lower scoring contest. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (313) and the Tulane Green Wave (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). THE SITUATION: Ohio State (2-0) enters this game coming off their dominant 42-0 shutout victory over Cincinnati last Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite. Indiana (2-0) is also undefeated so far this season after they crushed Eastern Illinois last week by a 52-0 score.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Buckeyes offense generated 508 yards of offense against what had been considered a stout Cincinnati defense last week. Sophomore quarterback Justin Fields has fit right into first-year teach coach Jason Day’s offense. The transfer from Georgia has passed for 561 yards in his first two games while throwing nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He also added 42 yards on the ground last week against the Bearcats while finding the end zone two times in displaying in his dual-threat capabilities. The Over is 3-0-1 in Ohio State’s last 4 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Buckeyes also flexed their muscles on defense by holding Cincinnati to just 273 yards of offense. But this Ohio State defense has regressed as of late. They allowed 25.5 PPG last year which was the highest number they have allowed since 1999 while placing them a mediocre tied for 51st in the nation. Even worse, the 403.4 total YPG that the Buckeyes allowed last year was the most they have allowed in 50 years. Nine starters return from that unit that is now operating under new defensive coordinators in Jeff Hafley and Greg Mattison who was poached from Michigan to help with recruiting given his knowledge of the midwest as well as his Super Bowl ring coordinating the Ray Lewis Baltimore Ravens over a decade ago. Frankly, there has been a drop off in recruiting over the years at linebacker and defensive back. So while the Buckeyes held the Bearcats to just 273 yards of offense last week, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. Ohio State has also played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have played 8 of their last 11 games Over the Total on the road. And in their last 5 games played on field turf, the Over is 3-1-1. Indiana has also been impressive on offense after gaining 555 yards last week against Eastern Illinois. The Hoosiers have then played 14 of their last 17 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 8 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Indiana will push the tempo against Ohio State with the hopes of tiring out their athletes on defense. They averaged one play per 22.8 seconds last season which was the 20th fastest tempo in the FBS last year. The third-year head coach has quarterback talent at his disposal with junior Peyton Ramsey back after making all twelve starts last season along with freshman Jack Tuttle who was a four-star recruit who transferred from Utah. But Allen and offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer decided on freshman Michael Penix, Jr. to be their starter given his strong arm and dual-threat running capabilities. He played in three games last year before suffering a season-ending injury that allowed him to redshirt the season. All three quarterbacks played last week but it will likely be Penix under center for this game with Ramsey possibly getting in the game as a change of pace or in mop-up work. The Hoosiers only allowed 116 yards last week to that FCS opponent so let's take that with a grain of salt. Indiana has played 15 of their last 17 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also played 25 of their last 32 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 20 points in their last contest. The Hoosiers returned seven starters on defense but it was from a group that allowed their opponents to average +28 YPG above their offensive YPG season average last season which was 93rd worst in the nation. Indiana has played 5 straight home games Over the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. They also have played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total in Big Ten play.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State won last year’s meeting by a 49-26 score as a 27.5-point favorite in Columbus. While Indiana may need garbage time to do it, I do expect them to approach that 26 scoring figure at home this season in what looks like a more dynamic offense. But the Buckeyes will likely reach 40 points in this one — and the Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams when playing in Bloomington. With Indiana playing at a fast tempo and Ohio State happy to take the extra possessions, expect a higher scoring game. 25* CFB Fox-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Ohio State Buckeyes (109) and the Indiana Hoosiers (110). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). THE SITUATION: Washington State (2-0) has won their first two games this season after their 59-17 win over Northern Colorado last Saturday as a 43-point favorite. Houston (1-1) bounced-back from their nationally televised loss at Oklahoma by defeating Prairie View A&M by a 37-17 score as a 36-point favorite. This game will be playing on a neutral field at NRG Stadium in Houston.

REASONS TO TAKE WASHINGTON STATE MINUS THE POINTS: Head coach Mike Leach returned thirteen starters from last year’s team that finished 11-2. The biggest challenge Leach had in the offseason was finding his new quarterback after he found so much success with grad transfer Gardner Minshew who now finds himself the starting quarterback for the Jacksonville Jaguars. The expectation was that Leach would use another grad transfer Gage Gubrond who starred at Eastern Washington. But an impressive fall camp compelled Leach to tap fifth-year senior, Anthony Gordon, as his starter. In Leach, We Trust at this point when it comes to operating his version of the Air Raid offense. He has long been preparing for the post-Luke Falk era who was a three-year starter for this program. He brought in Gordon and Trey Tinsley (another fifth-year senior) as junior college transfers two years ago — and he believes in competition with the Gubrond transfer along with recruiting a talented younger quarterback in redshirt freshman Cammon Cooper. Gordon has validated Leach’s decision as he has thrown for 884 yards with nine touchdown passes and just one interception in his first two starts. Gordon found nine different receivers last week and looks well-equipped to run Leach’s offense. With the top four receivers back from last year along with talented rusher and pass-catching threat in running back Max Borghi along with a strong offensive line that returned four starters from last year, this offense should continue to put up big numbers — and that makes this Cougars team dangerous even when playing on the road. Washington State has covered the points read in 8 of their last 11 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss. These Cougars generated 594 yards last week — and not only have they covered the point spread in 13 of their last 18 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game but they have covered the point spread in 7 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. Gordon has passed for 481 and 507 passing yards in his two starts — and Washington State has covered the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games after passing for at least 325 passing yards in two straight games. These Cougars have raced out to fast starts as well as they have scored 24 and 35 points in the first half of their first two games — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after scoring at least 20 points in the first half in two straight games. Washington State usually fares well in these expected higher scoring games as well as they have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 15 games with the Total set at 70 or higher. Gordon and this Air Raid offense should shred this Houston defense that surrendered 686 yards to the Sooners in their first game. While Oklahoma makes many defenses look bad, these Cougars’ defenders made it easy for Jalen Hurts in his debut with his new team as he had wide-open wide receivers all night. Houston returned only four starters from last year’s defense while losing future NFL players at all three levels of the unit making this a major rebuilding job for new defensive coordinator Joe Cauthen. I put little stock in their holding Prairie Valley A&M to just 318 yards of offense last week — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games after not allowing more than 20 points. Houston has also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a win by at least 17 points. Furthermore, while these Cougars raced out to a 34-10 lead last week, they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after scoring at least 24 points in the first half of their last contest. Houston potentially has a dynamic offense of their own with senior D’Eriq King under center — but he has struggled at times to get in synch with the new offensive system of first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen. King passed for only 139 yards last week on 15 of 26 passing against an FCS opponent while not rushing for positive yards. That is not a good sign for what is shaping up to be a shootout — and this Washington State defense has been much improved over the last few seasons after seeing improvements in points allowed in four straight games. Six starters return from that unit for second-year defensive coordinator Tracy Claeys from a group that led the FBS by generating sacks in 14% of their opponents in Passing Down situations. Washington State has covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State usually thrives in situations like this — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games in September while also covering the point spread in 5 of their last 6 non-conference games. Houston has failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning record — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 12 games played on field turf. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Month with the Washington State Cougars (107) minus the points versus the Houston Cougars (108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). THE SITUATION: Tulane (1-0) enters this game looking to build off their 42-14 win over Florida International as a 3-point favorite back on August 29th. Auburn (1-0) eked out a 27-21 win over Oregon as a 4-point favorite last Saturday against Oregon.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Freshman quarterback Bo Nix was shaky in his collegiate debut — he completed only 13 of 31 passes for 177 yards. Head coach Gus Malzahn kept the playbook limited with his freshman with the team doing little to stretch the field against a Ducks defense that is certainly not elite. While I expect Nix to get more of the playbook tonight, it is telling that Malzahn did not feel comfortable in his quarterback to start airing the ball out — even when they were trailing for most of that game with Oregon. But perhaps that is because he had complete confidence in his defense that returned seven starters including an outstanding defensive line from a unit that ranked 14th in the nation last year by holding their opponents to just 19.2 PPG. The Tigers held the Ducks with their Heisman Trophy candidate in quarterback Justin Herbert to just 332 yards of offense in that victory. Moving forward, Auburn has played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Now the Tigers return home from that game played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta where they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total. Auburn has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total in the month of September after last week’s game fell below the 55.5 point Total. Furthermore, the Under is 18-7-2 in the Tigers’ last 27 games against teams outside the SEC — and the Under is 20-8-1 in their last 29 games against teams with a winning record. Tulane has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with eight days of rest and preparation. The Green Wave generated 545 yards of offense against the Golden Panthers under senior quarterback Justin McMillan. Tulane has then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have also played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after generating at least 450 yards in their last game. The Green Wave gained 350 of those yards on the ground as they flexed their muscles in controlling the line of scrimmage — and this will likely be the strategy in pulling this upset. Tulane plays at a fast tempo under new offensive coordinator Will Hall — but running the football still shortens the game with the clock continually moving. The Green Wave have played 5 of their last 5 games Under the Total after rushing for at least 275 yards in their last game. Tulane has also played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total on the road — and they have played 7 of their last 8 road games Under the Total as the underdog.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane has played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total against teams outside the American Athletic Conference — and they have also played 6 straight games Under the Total against teams from the SEC. 25* CFB ESPN2 Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Tulane Green Wave (371) and the Auburn Tigers (372). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). THE SITUATION: Missouri (0-1) looks to bounce-back from an upset 37-31 loss at Wyoming last Saturday despite being a 15-point favorite. West Virginia (1-0) comes off a 20-13 win at home over James Madison as a 7-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS MINUS THE POINTS: Missouri raced out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter while dominating the yardage battle with the Cowboys by a 144 to 28 margin. But then the turnover bug hit the Tigers with Wyoming taking full advantage to go into halftime with a 27-17 lead. Missouri outgained the Cowboys by a dominant 537 to 389 yardage margin but their -3 net turnover margin cost them the game — including a fumble that Wyoming returned for a 33-yard touchdown. The Tigers have bounced-back to cover the point spread in 5 straight games after an upset loss on the road laying at least a touchdown — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Additionally, Missouri has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up loss — and they have covered the point spread in a decisive 33 of their last 49 home games after a loss on the road. The silver lining for this team was the strong play under center of quarterback Kelly Bryant. The former Clemson quarterback completed 31 of 48 passes for 423 yards with two touchdowns. The transfer looks to be a fine replacement for the graduated Drew Lock who was drafted by the Denver Broncos. Thirteen starters returned from an 8-5 team last year with seven joining Bryant on offense and six starters along with five of the top seven tacklers back on defense. Now this team returns home where they have covered the point spread 8 of their last 11 games — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. West Virginia escaped suffering an upset loss to a James Madison team that ranks #2 in the nation in the FCS. But it is not a good sign for this team that the Dukes dominated both sides of the line of scrimmage. That does not bode well when now traveling to face an SEC team with five offensive linemen that all weigh at least 310 pounds. The Mountaineers survived that game through special teams and turnovers. West Virginia blocked a field goal and recovered a muffed point en route to a +3 net turnover advantage. The Mountaineers only generated 13 first downs against the Dukes defense while losing the yardage battle by a 328 to 294 margin. This is a football program in transition after head coach Dana Holgorsen departed on his own volition to take the head coaching job at Houston after an 8-4 season that finished with a 34-18 loss to Syracuse in the Camping World Bowl. Perhaps Holgorsen saw the writing on the wall this year with only three starters returning on offense from a group that lost its top five players including QB Will Grier, their top three wide receivers, and left tackle Yodney Cajuste. The new head coach is Neal Brown who did a good job at Troy — but only after enduring a 4-9 record in his first year rebuilding that program. Brown brought in Oklahoma grad transfer Austin Kendall to be his starting quarterback — but he kept him on a short leash least week with him mostly dinking-and-dunking to completing 27 passes of his 42 attempts for 260 yards. West Virginia only rushed for 34 yards in that game which is not a good sign traveling on the road to Mizzou — they are just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after failing to rush for at least 100 yards in their last game. The Mountaineers are also just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games after a straight-up win.

FINAL TAKE: West Virginia is just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games as an underdog. They face a more talented team that will be very angry after suffering a bad upset loss on the road. 25* CFB ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Missouri Tigers (320) minus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (319). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 9:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). THE SITUATION: Marshall (1-0) looks to build off their 56-17 win over VMI last Saturday as a 44-point favorite. Boise State (1-0) is riding high after pulling off a 36-31 upset win in Tallahassee against Florida State as a 6.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE THUNDERING HERD PLUS THE POINTS: The Broncos found themselves trailing by 24-6 and 31-13 scores in the second quarter before skunking the Seminoles in the second-half by a 17-0 score to pull off that 18-point comeback for the upset win. Florida State head coach Willie Taggart blamed a lack of conditioning for his team’s collapse with many players dealing with cramps in the August Florida heat. Boise State will not receive similar luck this week against this well-coached Marshall team in the tenth season under head coach Doc Holliday. The key for this Broncos team this year will be the play of their quarterback after seeing their four-year starter in Brett Rypien finally graduate and move on to the NFL in the offseason. The highly touted true freshman, Hank Bachmeier, played as great as could possibly be expected on Saturday by completing 30 of 51 passes for 407 yards. But this sets up this very young quarterback and the rest of this team to suffer a huge emotional letdown after last week’s second-half triumph. Remember, these are the same players that dug that 18-point hole. Despite the mystique of the blue field in Boise, the Broncos have not been a very good team relative to point spread expectations at home where they have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 23 games. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight home games when favored by 7.5 to 14 points. This remains a team that lost a number of important pieces on offense last year from their 10-3 team. Besides replacing the four-year starting quarterback, the Broncos lost their workhorse running back, Alexander Mattison, who rushed for over 1400 yards last year along with their top two receivers. These veterans helped the offense convert on 52.5% of their 3rd downs which was 3rd best in the nation — that is a number that is bound to regress. Boise State is also 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. The defense returns seven starters but lost four of their top five players in tackles-for-loss. But this is a unit that only picked off seven passes which is the fewest for this program since 1968. The Broncos were also third-best in the nation by recovering 74% of the fumbles they saw on the field. If that number regresses back to the expected 50% mean, this team probably does not win 10 times last year. Marshall should be very excited to prove that they belong in the conversation regarding the top non-Power Five conference teams in the FBS. They return fourteen starters from last year’s 9-4 team that concluded their season by crushing South Florida in their stadium by a 38-20 score in the Gasparilla Bowl. Quarterback Isaiah Green led an offense that generated 503 yards against the Bulls — he enters his sophomore year with confidence who will likely take a big step in his development. Green completed 18 of 28 passes (to eleven different targets) for 238 yards and four touchdown passes while adding another 46 yards on the ground in a good tune-up for this team. The Thundering Herd bring an underrated defense into this game as well with six starters back from last year’s group that was tied for 27th in the nation by limiting opponents to just 338.7 total YPG. The Marshall run defense ranked 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 104.3 rushing YPG — and this was no fluke after ranking 19th in the nation in run defense in 2017. The Thundering Herd held VMI to only 56 rushing yards while outrushing them by 222 net yards — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games after outrushing their last opponent by at least +200 yards. Marshall has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in fifteen straight games — so they will likely force the true freshman quarterback to beat them. The Thundering Herd forced 24 turnovers last season — don’t be surprised if an overconfident Bachmeier makes some mistakes tonight. Holliday usually has his team ready to play in the early part of the season — they are 15-7-3 ATS in their last 25 games in the month of September.

FINAL TAKE: Marshall embraces the role of the underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games getting the points which include them covering the point spread in five of their last six games on the road as an underdog. Expect the Thundering Herd to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB Friday ESPN2 Game of the Month with the Marshall Thundering Herd (303) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (0-0) returns thirteen starters from the team that lost to Clemson in the National Semifinals by a 30-3 score. Louisville (0-0) has sixteen starters back from last year’s dumpster fire that limped to a 2-10 season record.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Fighting Irish return seven starters with an offense that might be the most potent in head coach Brian Kelly’s ten years with the program. Kelly’s decision to elevate Ian Book to be his starting quarterback despite a 3-0 start to the season was inspired as the team averaged 36.6 PPG in his eight starts. The move to Book gave the Notre Dame offense a legitimate passing threat that they have not had in years to balance their strong rushing attack. Book threw at least two touchdown passes in all eight of his regular-season starts. While the Irish are dealing with injuries to junior wide receiver Michael Young and junior tight end Cole Kmet, the Irish have depth at the running back and wide receiver skill positions. The offense also has the benefit of four returning starters on offense. However, the Notre Dame defense is likely to take a step or two back with the loss of three key members of last year’s unit that have moved on to the NFL. The middle of the defense appears vulnerable with the Irish replacing two good defensive tackles along with two good linebackers — that level of the defense is now inexperienced and lacking in depth. And while Notre Dame has two great safeties in seniors Jalen Elliott and Alohi Gilman, it will be tough to replace the elite cover cornerback Julian Love who bypassed his senior year to go to the NFL. The Fighting Irish have played 5 of their last 7 road games Over the Total when laying 14.5 to 21 points. Notre Dame has also played 9 of their last 13 games Over the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 56 point range — and this includes them playing four of their last five games on the road Over the Total with the number set in that range. Louisville cannot help but be better on defense this season after they ranked 122nd in the nation by allowing 483.6 total YPG. While ten starters return from that group, new head coach Scott Satterfield and his defensive coordinator at Appalachian State, Bryan Brown, have a major rebuilding task to clean up the hot mess that Bobby Petrino left behind after being fired late in the season. The Cardinals surrendered at least 52 points in each of their last five games — so it will likely be a long road back for this group. Louisville’s improvement should happen faster on the offensive side of the football under Satterfield who emphasized more running in the spread offensive attacks as the head coach at Appalachian State. Satterfield has tapped junior quarterback Jawon Pass to be his starter with a simplified playbook from the 2007 NFL playbook Petrino was still relying on from his year with the Atlanta Falcons. Satterfield will likely also give reps to Malik Cunningham who led the team in rushing last year and can better execute the rushing attack under center. The Cardinals have played 4 of their last 5 games at home Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total when playing on field turf. Louisville has also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total as an underdog — and this includes them playing four of their last five home games Over the Total as the dog. And in their last 22 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points, the Cardinals have played 14 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: Louisville averaged just 19.8 PPG last year (tied for 121s in the nation) while Notre Dame surrendered just 18.2 PPG (13th in the nation). Look for the Cardinals to score at least 20 points tonight with their offense improved and the Irish defense losing three players to the NFL. With the Irish a favorite approaching 20 points, Louisville scoring 20 points should put this game way Over the number given the number the Notre Dame is likely to put up in this game. 25* CFB ESPN Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (217) and the Louisville Cardinals (218). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). THE SITUATION: Houston (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 8-5 after suffering a humiliating 70-14 loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. Oklahoma (0-0) has twelve starters back from the group that lost to Alabama in the College Football Playoff Semifinals by a 45-34 score.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Sooners led the nation last year by averaging 48.4 PPG along with generating 570.3 total YPG. After seeing their offense improve their numbers in each of the last four seasons, the Regression Gods were likely to make a visit to Norman this year. But with Jalen Hurts the new starting quarterback for this team after his transfer from Alabama. Hurts has outstanding leadership skills as he led (the uber-talented) Crimson Tide to a 24-2 record as a starter. But Hurts does not have the same talent as Tua Tagovailoa nor Baker Mayfield or Kyler Murray who have been the two Heisman Trophy winners that Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley has had at his disposal over the last two years. In four playoff game appearances, Hurts completed just 43% of his passes for the Tide while averaging just 3.7 Yards-Per-Attempt. There is a reason he was benched at halftime of the 2017 National Championship game against Georgia. The Sooners are also almost completely rebuilding their offensive line with four starters from last year departed to play in the NFL. Mayfield had the benefit of five returning starters on the offensive line two years with Murray having three returning starters last year. Hurts is not getting the same good opening hand as his two predecessors at Oklahoma. Even if the Sooners just reach their 48.4 PPG scoring mark from last year in this game, the Under should still be in pretty good shape with them being 23 or so point favorites against the Cougars. Of course, the Oklahoma defense was a mess last year as they ranked last in the Big 12 by allowing 33.3 PPG along with 453.8 total YPG. This unit can probably not help but improve under new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who oversaw a very good defense in a previous stint at Washington State. Grinch has installed a new “positionless” scheme that emphasizes aggressiveness and play-making. This may be a better fit than the staler ideas of previous coordinate Mike Stoops. The Sooners’ secondary should be better with three juniors returning as starters who have received a baptism by fire last year. Houston will be installing a new offensive Air Raid scheme under new head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Cougars are happy to have a fully-healthy D’Eriq King back under center after he suffered a season-ending injury in mid-November. But this is an offense that Oklahoma is very familiar with given its deployment by many of the teams in the Big 12. Houston also had defensive issues last season after allowing 37.2 PPG along with 496.4 total YPG. That unit was ravaged by injuries — they allowed a more manageable 28.0 PPG in their first six games before their depleted unit surrendered 45.0 PPG in their final seven games. This defense will have something to prove after their embarrassing effort against Army in their bowl game where the team had checked out on head coach Major Applewhite. Holgorsen has proclaimed that playing good defense is a “high priority” for him — he has hired a good defensive coordinator in Joe Cauthen whose attacking style running the defense at Arkansas State led to 146 sacks over the last four seasons. Holgorsen has added six junior college transfers to improve the talent of this group led by cornerback Damarion Williams who was a junior college All-American last year. The Cougars have played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total in the first half of the regular season. Houston has also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams from the Big 12.

FINAL TAKE: With the Total eclipsing the 80 point mark in some spots, it will take a high level of offensive production of both teams to reach the Over. Don’t be surprised if both of these potent offenses make some execution mistakes in this opening game. This logic helps to inform a historical angle supporting the Under that has been 75% effective since 1992. In games in the first two weeks of the season with the Total set at 63 or higher between two teams from major 1-A conferences, when at least one of the teams returns a starting quarterback from the previous season, the game finished Under the Total in 40 of these last 53 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Houston Cougars (215) and the Oklahoma Sooners (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). THE SITUATION: Ball State (0-0) returns seventeen starters from their team that finished 4-8 last season. Indiana (0-0) returns fourteen starters from last year’s 5-7 team. This game will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Cardinals were hit hard by transfers in the offseason with six players leaving the program. The offense lost two incumbent starters from last year in senior quarterback Riley Neal who transferred to Vanderbilt and senior running back James Gilbert who moved to Kansas State. There is an argument to be had that perhaps both these players were going to lose their jobs this season. On the other hand, Neal had started 32 games for Ball State while throwing for 7393 yards and 46 touchdown passes while Gilbert rushed for 2806 yards in his career with the program — and that was good enough to entice two football programs in Power Five conferences. Ball State was just 102nd in the FBS last year by scoring just 4.2 points per trip inside the 40-yard line. Any improvements on offense will likely not materialize right away. As it is, the Cardinals have played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total in the first month of the season. I do expect to see significant improvements from the Ball State defense that returns nine starters. This is the second year for this unit playing in a 3-4 formation. This move worked for the first seven games last year under defensive coordinator David Elson as they hold those first seven opponents to just 23.9 PPG. But injuries eventually took their toll as the Cardinals allowed their last five opponents to score 44.4 PPG as their lack of depth was exposed. Back at full health and with better depth from the experiences from last season, Ball State should be much improved in the second year playing in the 3-4 look. They return seventeen players who registered at teals ten tackles last year. The Cardinals have played 4 straight games Under the Total against teams outside the Mid-American Conference — and they have also played 5 straight games Under the Total against Big Ten foes. Ball State has also played 4 straight games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Indiana has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams outside the Big Ten. The Hoosiers defense regressed last year with only three returning starters — they allowed 423.8 total YPG which was 83.7 YPG more than what they surrendered in 2017 when they ranked 27th in the nation in total defense. Don’t be surprised if this unit approaches those strong defensive numbers from two years ago with seven starters back along with eight of their top eleven tacklers from last year. Tom Allen feels confident enough with this group that he promoted linebackers coach Kane Wommack to defensive coordinator to free up his time focus exclusively with his head coaching duties. Allen has already made a big move by tapping redshirt freshman Michael Penix as the starting quarterback to replace returning starter Peyton Ramsey. Penix has a better runner with a stronger arm — but with this team playing in a new system under first-year offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer, it might take some time for this unit to gel. The Hoosiers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when favored by 10.5 to 21 points. They also have played 3 of their last 4 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range.

FINAL TAKE: Indiana won last year’s rivalry game between these two schools by a 38-10 score with that result falling well short of the 62.5 point Total. These two teams have played 5 of their last 7 meetings Under the Total. 25* College Football Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the Ball State Cardinals (169) and the Indiana Hoosiers (170). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (0-0) returns twelve starters from a team that finished 7-6 after upsetting Missouri in the Liberty Bowl by a 38-33 score. Oregon State (0-0) returns sixteen starters from last year’s team that stumbled to a 2-10 record.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State is usually a reliable double-digit favorite even on the road under head coach Mike Gundy beginning his fifteenth year with the program. The Cowboys have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 road games when laying 10.5 to 14 points. After three straight seasons with double-digit victories, Oklahoma State took a step back last year. Despite scoring 38.4 PPG (13th in the FBS) and averaging 500.2 total YPG (10th in the FBS), the offense took a step back from the previous season in large part because their quarterbacks completed only 59.4% of their passes while throwing 13 interceptions. In 2017, the Cowboys scored 45.0 PPG while generating 569.8 total YPG which was 4th and 2nd best in the country. Gundy may have found a gem to be his new offensive coordinator in Sean Gleeson who ran a very innovative offense at Princeton. Oklahoma State will have the benefit of surprise regarding what specialty plays Gleeson unveils in his debut with this offense. The Cowboys have not named a starting quarterback between redshirt freshman Spencer Sanders and graduate transfer Dru Brown who both were on the roster last season learning this offense. Gleeson often used more than one QB at Princeton so don’t be surprised if Oklahoma State rotates both quarterbacks tonight to confuse the Beavers with different looks. The Cowboys remain loaded with talent at the skill positions with three of their top four receivers returning this season — headlined by junior All-American Tylan Wallace — along with running back Chuba Hubbard who averaged over 100 rushing YPG against the gauntlet of Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU and Missouri. Gundy’s teams start strong as they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games played in the month of August. Oklahoma State has also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games outside the Big-12. And in their last 17 contests in expected high-scoring affairs with the Total set at 63 or higher, the Cowboys have covered the point spread in 11 of these games. The defense should improve in the second season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Oregon State’s passing attack is the strength of their offense with returning starters at wide receiver and a sixth-year senior Jake Luton who has received medical exemptions after injuries have limited him to just nine starters in the last two seasons. But the strength of the Cowboys defense will likely be their secondary with all four starters returning. Oregon State will be without their top wideout in the speedy Trevon Bradford as the senior is out with a back injury. The Beavers may also be without their senior safety Jalen Moore who is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. These are two tough opening week injuries that will make it more difficult for Oregon State to stay competitive in this game. The Beavers were outscored by -20 PPG last season while also losing the yardage battle by -132 net YPG — and that margin was even worse in Pac-12 play where they were outgained by -178 YPG. Moore had 102 tackles last season — and even with him on the field, Oregon State allowed their opponents to have a Success Rate of 53.4% which was 129th in the FBS. That is an ominous number when facing this powerful Cowboys offensive attack. The Beavers allowed 45.7 PPG along with 536.8 total YPG which both ranked 128th in the nation. Home field has not been much of an advantage for this team as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 home games as an underdog. Additionally, Oregon State has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games as an underdog getting 10.5 to 21 points. The Beavers have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games in the month of August.

FINAL TAKE: While the Cowboys allowed 452.5 total YPG last year, they do return five starters from that group which is a good sign for improvement (or at least that this team is undervalued right now) — and that helps place Oklahoma State into an early-season historical angle that has been 69% effective since 1992. In games played in the first two weeks of the season, road teams who allowed at least 400 YPG last season but return at least five defensive starters have then covered the point spread in 61 of the last 88 situations where these conditions applied. 25* CFB Friday FS1-TV Game of the Month with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (159) minus the points versus the Oregon State Beavers (160). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). THE SITUATION: UCLA (0-0) looks to rebound from a 3-9 campaign last season. Cincinnati (0-0) enjoyed an 11-2 record last season that was capped by a 35-31 victory over Virginia Tech in the Military Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BRUINS PLUS THE POINTS: UCLA started the season losing seven straight games last year under first-year head coach Chip Kelly. But a rotation of players loaded with freshmen and sophomores continued to improve with the Bruins winning three of their last five games including a 34-27 upset win over USC in the second-to-last game of their season. This should be a vastly improved team this year under a very good head coach in Kelly. The UCLA offense now has a clear direction with sophomore Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center who is a great fit for Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense schemes. The Bruins started last year with senior transfer from Michigan Wilton Speight as the starting quarterback who was not a great fit for Kelly’s typical offense since he lacked mobility as a pocket passer. UCLA also saw the emergence of senior running back Joshua Kelley who shined during conference play (including 289 yards against USC) en route to 1243 rushing yards. The Bruins offense averaged only 312 YPG in their first four games but generated 432 total YPG over their last eight games. With nine starters returning this season in the second-year of Kelly’s system, that level of productivity is probably the floor for this team. The defense should also be better after Kelly inherited a unit that allowed 36.6 PPG while ranking 122nd in the FBS by allowing 483.7 total YPG. Last year’s group allowed -2.5 fewer PPG along with 90 less rushing YPG — and with ten starters back which includes four sophomores who started as a freshman last season, this group should also make a big jump in their quality of play. UCLA has covered the point spread in 27 of their last 44 games in the opening two weeks of a new season. Cincinnati returns fourteen starters from last year’s team including redshirt sophomore quarterback Desmond Ridder who led the team last season. This was an offense that was perhaps too dependent on big plays last season — they averaged 3rd and long on 46.7% of their third downs last year. The biggest concern for the offense is the offensive line that returns only two starters. The defense returns seven starters from an outstanding group that was 11th in the nation by allowing just 303.5 total YPG. But the stout Bearcats defensive line from last season must replace all three of their starters including two outstanding leaders in defensive tackles Cortez Broughton and Marquise Copeland. Cincinnati has not retained much of a home-field advantage as of late as they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games at home. The Bearcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 home games when favored by 3 points or less. Furthermore, Cincinnati has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games against teams outside the American Athletic Conference. And in their last 6 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range, the Bearcats have failed to cover the point spread 4 times.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of the opening game between these two teams last season where Cincinnati pulled the upset on the road in a Rose Bowl by a 26-17 score despite being a two-touchdown underdog. Too much was being expected about that Kelly team in his first year with the Bruins program — but with an entire offseason to prepare for this rematch, look for UCLA to be primed to pull the upset in this revenge opportunity that can immediately launch this program into gear in Kelly’s second season. But take the points for a little road dog insurance. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Game of the Month with the UCLA Bruins (133) plus the points versus the Cincinnati Bearcats (134). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). THE SITUATION: Hawai’i (0-0) looks to build off an 8-6 campaign last year the culminated in a 31-14 loss to Louisiana Tech in the Hawai’i Bowl. Arizona (0-0) looks to improve on a 5-7 campaign last year where they failed to reach a bowl game in the first year under head coach Kevin Sumlin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE RAINBOW WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS: The Wildcats are expected to improve this season to at least be bowl eligible this year with fifteen starters back. The hope is that senior quarterback Khalil Tate will return to his 2017 form after an early ankle injury limited his ability to move the ball with his legs. Tate rushed for only 224 yards last year after gaining 1141 yards on the ground in 2017. But Tate regressed as a passer as well as he completed only 56% of his passes which was a 6.2% drop from his 62% completion percentage in his sophomore season. While some of that can be explained away from being stuck in the pocket dependent on his arm, it seems also true that Tate simply struggled to adjust to offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone’s system. Tate is a phenomenal athlete — but he is not the most cerebral of quarterbacks. The pressure will be on him to keep Arizona one step ahead of their opponents with a suspect defense that was 92nd in the nation last year by allowing 432.0 total YPG. Eight starters return for defensive coordinator Marcel Yates — but this is a small unit that still lacks an identity. Sumlin’s teams tend to underachieve on the road — the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 15 road games when favored by more than a touchdown but no more than 14 points. This is expected to be a high-scoring contest — but the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games on the road with the Total set at 63 or higher. Arizona has also failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games with the number set at 70 or higher. And in their last 11 games against teams outside the Pac-12, the Wildcats have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of these games. Hawai’i has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games against teams from the Pac-12. They also have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 16 home games with the Total set at least at 70. Fourth-year head coach Nick Rolovich returns eighteen starters from last year’s group that far exceeded preseason expectations. Junior quarterback Cole McDonald is not being given nearly as much benefit of the doubt as Tate is for Arizona despite his dealing with injuries last season that impacted his productivity in the second half of the season. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 42.0 PPG in their first eight games last year — and McDonald is fully healthy again with eight other returning starters on offense. I expect a big day from the dual-threat QB against this suspect Wildcats defense that finished second-to-last in the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. I also think the defense will take a step in the right direction under Corey Baton who is the first returning coordinator in nine years for this unit. Baton has nine returning starters back.

FINAL TAKE: Hawai’i typically starts the season strong as they have covered the point spread in 26 of their last 37 games in the first two weeks of a new season which includes five straight point spread covers in the month of August. This is a dangerous opening contest on the road for this Arizona team. Expect a close game. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Month with the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (294) plus the points versus the Arizona Wildcats (293). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE THE TIGERS PLUS THE POINTS: Back in August, my Best Bet to win the National Championship was on Clemson because I preferred the value in their future odds in the 4:1 to 5:1 range as more appetizing than Alabama’s odds in the 2:1 to 3:1 range. With this final pairing set, I have observed some pundits claim that there is little value in Clemson getting +4.5 to +6 or so points. Say what? The Tigers lost the first playoff meeting between these two teams in 2016 by a 45-40 score before upsetting the Tide by a 35-31 score in the second meeting the next year. Nick Saban then had a month to prepare for last year's third showdown which Bama won by a 24-6 score — and that game exposed the limitations of Clemson QB Kelly Bryant. It is with this fourth chapter in mind that Dabo Swinney made the difficult decision to bench an effective Bryant this season for freshman Trevor Lawrence. In hindsight, that move looks brilliant as it jumpstarted the Tigers offense who they closed the season ranked 4th in the nation by scoring 44.3 PPG while ranking above Bama at 3rd in the FBS by averaging 530.4 total YPG. Lawrence looked great in decimating a good Notre Dame defense by completing 27 of 39 passes for 327 yards while tossing three touchdown passes. He now faces a vulnerable Crimson Tide secondary that has surrendered 308 and 301 passing yards to Oklahoma and Georgia in their last two games. The Alabama defensive backfield was an initial concern for me this season considering that they replaced their top four starters along with their top six on the depth chart. It is more difficult to repeat as champions since it is challenging to muster the same level of energy and urgency as that which drove the team in their first triumph over the proverbial mountain. And I see red flags when defending champions start losing focus by getting chippy with trash talk and cheap shots — and that is exactly what happened to Alabama when they blew their point spread cover against the Sooners. Rather than tactics of intimidation, I fount it indicated a lack of confidence — or, perhaps it displayed chemistry issues for a group with national championship or bust expectations that has played all season with a divided locker room over their two quarterbacks? Something seems off — and now they will face a program that has reached their level over the last four seasons. That is not a good sign for the Crimson Tide who have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in January — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games when favored by less than 7 points. Clemson has notched 54 victories over the last four seasons while perhaps being more talented than the team that won the 2016 National Championship. Even without Dexter Lawrence with his PED suspension, this could be their best defense under star defensive coordinator Brent Venables. This group ranks above Bama in all major defensive categories for what that is worth. Clemson has covered the point spread in 8 of their last 9 bowl games — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 bowl games as the underdog while winning six of those games straight-up.

FINAL TAKE: I lean to Clemson to win this game outright given the lingering chemistry/cohesion issues with Alabama that reared its ugly head in the Semifinals along with the motivational edge this team has in revenge against a reigning champion that might be just a little less hungry this time around. But please take as many points as you can for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB National Championship A-List Special with Clemson Tigers (151) plus the points versus the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). THE SITUATION: Clemson (14-0) reached the National Championship Game two Saturdays ago with their dominant 30-3 win over Notre Dame as a 10.5-point favorite. Alabama (14-0) later matched that effort in the nightcap of the College Football Playoff Semifinals with their 45-34 victory against Oklahoma as a 14.5-point favorite. These two teams play for the National Championship in Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Both these teams have top-five scoring offenses and defenses — but I think both teams’ offenses seem a little of their defense and the urgency of this contest should eventually push the scoring Over the Total. Alabama is second in the nation by scoring 47.7 PPG while ranking fourth in the FBS by averaging 527.6 total YPG. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa competed 24 of 27 passes against the Sooners defense last week for 318 yards with four touchdown passes to lead the Crimson Tide to victory. The Over is 19-9-1 in Alabama’s last 29 games after they pass for at least 280 yards in their last game. This dynamic passing attack is a new wrinkle for a Nick Saban Crimson Tide team as they rank 6th in the nation by averaging 325.6 passing YPG. While Bama has sported elite wide receivers who have found great success in the NFL, Saban may have recruited his most diverse set of receiver targets for this season’s offense. They should exploit a vulnerable Clemson secondary that was torched for 430 passing yards by Texas A&M and 510 passing yards by South Carolina. Alabama has played 23 of their last 32 games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field when favored — and they have played eleven of their last sixteen bowl games Over the Total including six of their last seven major bowl games played in January. The Tide have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Furthermore, Alabama has played 7 straight games Over the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 points range. But the Crimson Tide displayed some weaknesses in their defense again Oklahoma by allowing 471 yards of offense. The Over is 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bama secondary was a question mark for this team entering the season with them losing their top six defensive backs from last year’s depth chart. Alabama allowed the Sooners to pass for 308 yards after Georgia passed for 301 yards in their last two games. Dabo Swinney made the move at quarterback early in the season to prepare freshman Trevor Lawrence for this potential rematch because of his strong arm. The 6’5 gunslinger completed 27 of 39 passes against the Fighting Irish for 327 yards with three touchdowns. He leads an offense that has averaged 567.0 total YPG over their last three games. Overall, Clemson ranks 4th in the nation by averaging 44.3 PPG while generating 530.4 total YPG which ranks 3rd in the FBS. The Tigers have only allowed 13 combined points over their last two games — but they have then played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after not allowing more than 9 points in their last game while also playing 6 of their last 9 games Over the Total after not giving up more than 14 points in two straight games. Furthermore, the Tigers have played 4 of their last 6 games Over the Total after playing a game that finished Under the Total. And in their last 5 games played in the month of January, the Tigers have played 4 of these games Over the Total.

FINAL TAKE: This is the fourth straight season that these two teams have met in the College Football Playoffs. Alabama won the first game by a 45-40 score before Clemson won the rematch in January 2017 in a 35-31 contest. The Tide won in last year’s Semifinals in a defensive contest with Clemson using Kelly Bryant at quarterback in a 24-6 result. Expect the fourth chapter of this series to resemble the first two in it being a high-scoring shootout. 25* College Football Playoff Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Clemson Tigers (151) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (152). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). THE SITUATION: Texas (9-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 39-27 loss to Oklahoma as a 9.5-point underdog in the Big 12 Championship Game. Georgia (11-2) looks to bounce-back from their heartbreaking 35-28 loss to Alabama as an 11-point underdog in the SEC Championship Game. These two teams meet in a consolation prize in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE LONGHORNS PLUS THE POINTS: Georgia fancies themselves as an elite program despite rarely winning a big game since Hershel Walker led them to a national championship just before Ronald Reagan took office as President of the United States. The Bulldogs feel they were robbed out of being one of the top four teams in the country tapped to play in the College Football Playoffs despite blowing a 28-14 lead to the Crimson Tide and despite a 20-point loss to LSU (and playing a weakling non-conference schedule). Georgia are worse than blue bloods because they think they have earned the privileges of the elite without putting in any of the work to garner requisite achievements. If only the Bulldogs could rely on nepotism to get into the playoffs! This is all to say that I expect Georgia to be over-confident in this matchup as they will likely expect the Longhorns to faint at the sight of them taking the field. Star cornerback DeAndre Baker might have set the tone for this team when he decided to bypass this game to stay healthy for the upcoming NFL draft. His absence does leave the Bulldogs secondary vulnerable to Texas’ pair of big wide receivers in Collin Johnson (6’6) and Jordan Humphrey (6’4) who combined to accumulate 1964 receiving yards with 16 combined touchdowns. Georgia also displayed some issues in their run defense against the better teams on their schedule as they allowed Alabama, Auburn, and LSU to rush for over 5.0 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulldogs allowed 25.2 PPG when away from home which is almost a touchdown more than their season average. Georgia got into some high-scoring affairs down the stretch of the season with at least 63 combined points scored in each of their last three games. That is not exactly the style of play that Kirby Smart likes to nurture as a defensive-minded head coach — and the Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after playing at least three straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. Quarterback Jake Fromm completed 25 of 39 passes for 301 yards in their loss to Alabama — and Georgia has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Texas is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss. Their sophomore QB Sam Ehlinger played well in defeat by completing 23 of 36 passes for 349 yards while adding another 42 rushing yards and accounting for four overall touchdowns in their loss to the Sooners. The Longhorns are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Ehlinger has done a very good job of protecting the football as he threw 25 TD passes while tossing only five interceptions with eleven games this season where he did not throw an interception. But Texas did surrender 379 passing yards to Oklahoma in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 15 of the last 19 games after allowing at least 375 passing yards in their last game. This Texas defense has steadily improved as they held their last three opponents to just 338.0 total YPG. The Longhorns play well in these big games under head coach Tom Herman as they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. They also have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games played on a neutral field — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games on a neutral field with the Total set in the 56.5 to 62 point range. Furthermore, Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 14 games as an underdog — and this includes them covering the point spread in four of their last five games played on a neutral field as the dog.

FINAL TAKE: Herman has certainly thrived in these underdog situations in his head coaching tenure at Houston and now in Austin, Texas. His teams are 12-3 ATS in their fifteen games as an underdog with Herman leading his team to the upset victory in ten of these contests. Texas certainly has more to prove in this game with a high-profile win in this bowl game doing wonders for their psyche and recruiting profile moving forward — while Georgia still complains that they would have beaten Notre Dame and Oklahoma last Saturday. Expect a close game. 25* College Football Bowl Game of the Year with the Texas Longhorns (277) plus the points versus the Georgia Bulldogs (278). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). THE SITUATION: LSU (9-3) saw their two-game winning streak snapped in their final regular season game with their 74-72 loss in overtime at Texas A&M as a 3-point underdog back on November 24th. Central Florida (12-0) won the American Athletic Conference Championship Game to remain unbeaten over the last two seasons with their 56-41 win over Memphis as a 1-point favorite on December 1st. These two teams meet in Phoenix for the Fiesta Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: LSU has played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a point spread setback. Additionally, the Under is 5-2-2 in the Tigers’ last 9 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 18 of their last 25 road games after a game where at least a combined 60 points were scored. The LSU defense was once again one of the best units in the nation as they ranked 24th in the nation by allowing only 20.9 PPG and they also ranked 29th in the FBS by giving up just 346.1 total YPG. Even with that multiple overtime game against the Aggies, the Tigers only allowed 311.7 total YPG over their last three games. Their secondary will be without their two starting cornerbacks with Greedy Williams taking the game off to prepare for the NFL draft and Kristian Fulton dealing with a foot injury. But LSU always has talent at the cornerback position — and the Tigers coaching staff has had a month to develop the next players up on the depth chart. LSU has played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing with at least two weeks between games. The Tigers outstanding defensive line will help alleviate some of the pressure that the Knights wide receivers will offer to their secondary. LSU has played 19 of their last 28 games Under the Total as the favorite. The Tigers have also played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 5 of their last 7 bowl games Under the Total. Central Florida has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. The Knights have also played 6 straight games Under the Total after a game where they scored at least 40 points — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total after scoring at least 50 points. And while UCF generated a whopping 698 yards of offense against the Memphis defense, they have then played 13 of their last 18 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. But the Knights surrendered 583 yards to the Memphis offense with 401 yards being on the ground. UCF has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after giving up at least 275 rushing yards in their last contest. The Knights have had a bend but not break defense that has allowed only 21.3 PPG which is 25th best in the nation. UCF has covered the point spread in five of their last six games — but they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total after covering the point spread in four or five of their last six games. The Knights’ freshman quarterback, Darriel Mack, accounted well for himself to win the AAC Championship by completing 19 of 27 passes for 348 yards while adding another 59 yards on the ground. But facing the Memphis Tigers defense is not nearly the same as facing the LSU Tigers defense with their NFL talent they put on the field. Expect the freshman to struggle against the advanced schemes LSU will throw at the rookie in just his second start of the season after he took over for the injured McKenzie Milton. The big question for this game is how this Group of Five team will handle the significant step up in competition against an elite Power-Five Conference opponent. This year’s UCF team faced only one top-25 statistical defense in Cincinnati (who just surrendered 31 points to a mediocre Virginia Tech offense). Tellingly, the Knights have seen the Under go 8-0-1 in their last 9 games against fellow SEC opponents.

FINAL TAKE: LSU will commit to running the football to control the line of scrimmage and keep the explosive UCF offense off the field. That dynamic should help contribute to this being a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB New Year’s Six Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the LSU Tigers (273) and the Central Florida Knights (274). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). NC State (9-3) has won three straight games with their 58-3 win over East Carolina back on December 1st as a 24.5-point favorite. Texas A&M (8-4) has also won three straight games with their 74-72 win in multiple overtimes against LSU as a 3-point favorite back on November 24th. These two teams meet in Jacksonville for the Taxslayer Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: NC State has played 5 of their last 7 games Over the Total after a win by at least 20 points — and they have played 7 of their last 10 games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Led by senior quarterback Ryan Finley, the Wolfpack offense scores 35.6 PPG while averaging 471.3 total YPG — those numbers rank 20th and 15th best in the nation. Over their last three games, this offense was clicking on all cylinders by scoring 48.0 PPG while averaging 526.7 total YPG. Finley will be without wide receiver Kelvin Harmon who is skipping this game to avoid injury prior to the NFL draft but he still has a host of other weapons including a 1000-yard receiver in Jakobi Meyers. He will be using this game to build his own NFL draft resume — and he should feast off an Aggies secondary that ranked 111th in the nation by allowing 262.7 passing YPG. Opposing quarterbacks completed 61% of their passes against the Texas A&M defense while throwing 25 touchdown passes to just 5 interceptions. But the Wolfpack defense will likely struggle to slow down the Aggies’ offense. In their five games on the road, NC State surrendered 30.0 PPG while allowing those opponents to average 439.2 total YPG. Their defense will be without their best player and top tackler in linebacker Germaine Pratt who is also bypassing this game for NFL prep. This is a defense that was torched by opposing quarterbacks as they ranked 120th in the nation by allowing 271.2 passing YPG. The Over is 11-4-1 in the Wolfpack’s last 16 games against non-conference opponents. NC State has also played 6 straight bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 8 straight games Over the Total when playing on a neutral field. The Wolfpack have also played 9 of their last 11 games Over the Total when playing as an underdog on a neutral field. Texas A&M has played 7 of their last 9 games Over the Total after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also played 4 straight games Over the Total after scoring at least 40 points — and they have played 12 of their last 15 games Over the Total after allowing at least 42 points in their last game. Texas A&M has their own dynamic quarterback in Kellen Mond who threw 23 touchdown passes while leading an offense that scored 34.7 PPG (26th in the nation) and averaged 465.8 total YPG (19th in the FBS). The Aggies have played 4 of their last 5 bowl games Over the Total — and they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC.

FINAL TAKE: NC State and Texas A&M have run defense that rank 13th and 2nd in the nation respectively — so don’t be surprised if the running games are abandoned for more passing. More passing means more possessions which helps our Over play. This shapes up to be a wild high-scoring affair. 25* CFB Bailout Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (267) and the Texas A&M Aggies (268). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Michigan State (7-5) snapped a two-game losing streak to close out their regular season on November 24th with their 14-10 win over Rutgers as a 24.5-point favorite. Oregon (8-4) has won three of their last four games with their 55-15 win at Oregon State on November 23rd as an 18-point favorite. These two teams meeting Santa Clara’s Levi Stadium for the newly named Redox Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE THE SPARTANS PLUS THE POINTS: Michigan State had sky-high expectations this season with nineteen starters back from a team that went 10-3 last season which culminated in a 42-17 drubbing of a Washington State team in the Holiday Bowl who then defeated these Ducks this season by double-digits. Injuries on offense held Sparty back this year with quarterback Brian Lewerke and running back L.J. Scott both battling injuries all season. Both players have had five weeks to heel and both should as healthy as they have been in months for this bowl game as the Spartans look to end their season on a high note. There is little wrong with the Michigan State defense that ranked 12th in the nation by allowing just 18.0 PPG while also ranking 14th in the FBS by allowing their opponents to average just 311.5 total YPG. Sparty was also 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to -106 YPG below their season offensive average. They limited Ohio State to just 347 yards of offense — so they should be able to contain Justin Herbert and this Ducks’ offense with the few weeks of preparation. Michigan State has allowed only four offensive touchdowns in their last five games. After shutting down the Buckeyes offense, the Spartans then limited Nebraska to 248 yards of offense before allowing Rutgers to gain a mere 217 yards in their final regular season game. Michigan State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they have also covered the point spread in 18 of their last 23 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in two straight games. This defense travels as well as they only allowed 13.2 PPG in their five games away from East Lansing while limiting those opponents to just 294.0 YPG. The Spartans out-gained their five opponents on the road by +64.0 net YPG. Head coach Mark Dantoni should have his team ready to play this game as they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 bowl games — and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games when played on a neutral field. Oregon has been reliably inconsistent as of late. The Ducks have failed to cover the point spread in 11 straight games after a win by at least 20 points — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after a point spread cover as a double-digit favorite. Furthermore, Oregon is just 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after a straight-up win — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 games after a point spread victory. And while the Ducks offense generated 510 yards against Beavers, they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after scoring at least 50 points in their last contest. This Oregon team was riding high after they pulled off an upset win over Washington — but then they fell to earth with double-digit losses to Washington State and Arizona while allowing an offensively-challenged Utah team score 32 points against them. In their five games away from home, the Ducks were out-gained by -24.8 net YPG. Oregon has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games against teams with a winning record — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games against teams outside the Pac-12. The Ducks have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 11 games played on a neutral field when favored by no more than 7 points.

FINAL TAKE: Michigan State is a very physical team with five weeks to rest up and heal for this game. The team with the closest profile to their style of play that Oregon played was Stanford — and the Cardinal defeated the Ducks by a 38-31 score. Dantoni relishes the underdog role for his Spartans. His teams have covered the point spread in their last five bowl games as the dog with Dantoni leading his team to the straight-up upset win in those last four bowl contests. Expect another upset — but take the points for some valuable insurance. 25* CFB Bowl Game of the Month with the Michigan State Spartans (261) plus the points versus the Oregon Ducks (262). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Alabama (13-0) won the SEC Championship Game back on December 1st with their 35-28 win over Georgia as an 11-point favorite. Oklahoma (12-1) won the Big 12 Championship Game with their 39-27 win versus Texas as a 9.5-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Miami, Florida in the Orange Bowl for the second Semifinals showdown in the College Football Playoff.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CRIMSON TIDE MINUS THE POINTS: The Sooners were playing with revenge on their minds when facing the Longhorns to begin this month — but I suspect they get exposed tonight for their subpar play on defense. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. These are very ominous signs when considering that they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a point spread win. The theory for Oklahoma backers is that they will simply outscore Bama in this game. Heisman Trophy winner Kyle Murray led the nation’s number one statistical offense in the nation — and he passed for 379 yards in their win over Texas. But the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after passing for at least 325 yards in their last game. Murray may not have his best target available — or at full strength — given the foot injury to Marquise Brown that he suffered in the Big 12 Championship that did not look very encouraging at the time. These circumstances are not encouraging given that this is a football team that has is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma has also failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 21 bowl games — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 12 games played on a neutral field. Furthermore, the Sooners have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games against SEC opponents. Alabama played their closest game of the season in their comeback win over the Bulldogs. Head coach Nick Saban typically gets his team to respond with a strong effort after a game where he can show them the bad game tape. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road game after a narrow victory of 7 points or less against a conference rival. The theory that Oklahoma will simply outscore Bama has to account for the fact that the Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide did allow 454 yards against Georgia — but they have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Alabama did take a step back on defense this season after losing eight starters along with their top six defensive backs from last year’s National Championship team. But this remains a unit loaded with blue-chippers (as opposed to Oklahoma) who should benefit from the extra week of bowl practices. The Crimson Tide have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a winning record.

FINAL TAKE: Alabama has suspended a few players — but they have the depth on the offensive line to sustain those losses for this game. Tua Tagovailoa seems to be 80-85% with his foot injury that he suffered against Georgia. I would worry about these issues more if they were playing a better defensive unit. Jaylen Hurts proved in the SEC Championship Game that he is willing and able to provide this team a spark if Tagovailoa is not effective. Ultimately, I think the Alabama defense will be able to generate at least some defensive stops — and I don’t think Oklahoma can slow down the Tide’s powerful offense. 25* CFB Playoff Game of the Year with the Alabama Crimson Tide (254) minus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (253). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:10 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Sooners have played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 5 straight games Over the Total after a point spread victory. Oklahoma generated 508 yards in that contest with the Longhorns — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total after gaining at least 405 yards in their last contest. The Sooners led the nation by scoring 49.5 PPG while also leading the FBS with an average of 577.9 total YPG. They also led the country by averaging +196 YPG above their opponent’s defensive YPG average this season. QB Kyle Murray fits the prototype of the quarterback that has given Nick Saban’s defense fits over the years with his dual-threat capabilities. He passed for over 4000 yards while averaging 11.9 Yards-Per-Passing attempt. The Heisman Trophy winner rushed for 943 yards with 642 of those yards accounted for from designed running plays where he averaged 7.2 Yards-Per-Carry. Texas A&M’s QB Kellen Mond rushed for 129 yards against the Bama defense with 92 of those yards coming from designed plays earlier this season. But the bigger defensive concerns below to the Sooners. Oklahoma allows 32.4 PPG which is 96th in the nation along with 448.1 total YPG which is 108th in the nation. Over their last three games, the team has not improved as they have surrendered 41.0 PPG along with an incredible 555.0 total YPG. In their six games on the road this year, the Sooners have given up 472.8 YPG. The team’s lack of competent safeties has consistently burned them all season — they rank 129th in the nation by giving up 291.4 passing YPG. This team allowed their opponents to average +31 YPG above their season average. Oklahoma has paled 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total against teams outside the Big 12. Alabama’s defense looked vulnerable against a Georgia team that generated 454 yards against them. The Crimson Tide have seen the Over go 9-4-1 in their last 14 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tide are the second-best scoring team in the nation by putting up 47.9 PPG — and they rank 5th in the nation by averaging 527.6 total YPG. When Alabama plays outside Tuscaloosa, they see their offensive production rise to them scoring 50.0 PPG while averaging 533.0 total YPG. This team averaged +155 YPG more than what their opponents allowed on average this season which was the third-best mark in the nation. The Crimson Tide have played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams outside the SEC. Alabama has also played 11 of their last 15 bowl games Over the Total — and they have seen the Over go 20-5-2 in their last 27 games played on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: The Total set is at Big 12 level heights in the high-70s which is not uncommon for Oklahoma games. Alabama has a better offense than what the Sooners have seen all season. The pressure to continue scoring creates a self-fulfilling prophecy — expect a wild high-scoring game. 10* CFB Oklahoma-Alabama ESPN O/U Special with Over the Total in the game between the Oklahoma Sooners (253) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (254). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 4:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). THE SITUATION: Notre Dame (12-0) closed out their perfect regular season with their 24-17 win at USC as a 13.5-point favorite back on November 24th. Clemson (13-0) won the ACC Championship Game on December 1st with their 42-10 win against Pittsburgh as a 27-point favorite. These two teams meet in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium in the Cotton Bowl which serves as a proxy for the College Football Semifinals.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Tigers have won three straight games by at least three touchdowns — and they have played 22 of their last 30 games Under the Total after winning at least their last two games by 21 points. They also have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Clemson once again boasts an outstanding defense that ranks 2nd in the nation by allowing 13.7 PPG while also ranking 3rd in the FBS by only giving up 276.7 total YPG. Those defensive numbers drop to 12.8 PPG and 252.0 YPG allowed in their six games played away from home. The Tigers are going to make things very difficult for this Irish offense. Clemson leads the nation by pressuring the quarterback in 45.8% of opponent passing plays. They also rank tops in the country by limiting opposing rushers to just 0.9 Yards-Per-Carry before delivering the first hit on the runner. Notre Dame has relied on clean holes from their offensive line as they average 2.5 Yards-Per-Carry before their rusher is hit which ranks 37th in the nation. While the Clemson will be without defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence for this game as he was suspended for this contest for positive PED test, their defensive line is loaded with talent and depth. This group should be even more ferocious with the extra rest and preparation — and this team has played 29 of their last 41 games Under the Total when playing with two or more weeks of rest. The Tigers do have a dynamic offense that became more powerful when freshman Trevor Lawrence took over under center early in the season. Clemson has scored 98 points over their last two games — but they have played 15 of their last 17 games Under the Total after scoring at least 42 points in two straight games. The Tigers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Clemson has also played 11 of their last 16 games Under the Total in bowl games — and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after a point spread loss. And while they generated 473 yards of offense against the Trojans defense, they have then played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The Irish surrendered 349 passing yards in that game with USC — but they have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Notre Dame is an outstanding defensive team that ranked 10th in the nation by allowing only 17.3 PPG — and they also ranked 20th in the FBS by giving up just 331.5 total YPG. This team has not allowed an opponent to score more than 27 points all season. The key to their efforts has been to minimize big plays — they gave up only five plays that accounted for more than 40 yards this season. They also have a stout run defense that limits their opponents to just 3.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Fighting Irish have played 4 of the last 5 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field. Notre Dame has also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total as an underdog giving 10.5 to 21 points.

FINAL TAKE: This is a matchup between two similar teams that employ run-first offenses that help to protect talented but inexperienced quarterbacks — and both teams like to rely on their strong defensive units. Expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Playoff Semifinals Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (255) and the Clemson Tigers (256). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). THE SITUATION: Auburn (7-5) has lost two of their last three games with their 52-21 loss at Alabama as a 25.5-point underdog back on November 24th. Purdue (6-6) snapped their two-game losing streak on that November 24th with their 28-21 victory at Indiana as a 3-point favorite. These two teams meeting in Nashville in the Music City Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Auburn has played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and the Under is also 19-6-2 in their last 27 games after a point spread loss. Additionally, the Tigers have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points — and they have played 9 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road by at least three touchdowns. The Auburn defense was humiliated by the arch-rivals in the Iron Bowl as they surrendered 500 yards of offense in their loss to Alabama. While most of the attention has since been on the Tigers offense that saw their offensive coordinator in Chip Lindsey leave for the same job at Kansas, the Tigers defense has much to prove in this game. The Under is 4-0-1 in Auburn’s last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game — and they have played 11 of their last 12 games Under the Total after surrendering at least 450 yards in their last game. The Tigers had not given up more than 30 points in one game all season before their showdown with the Crimson Tide — they still enter this bowl game ranked 18th in the nation by allowing only 19.6 PPG. There is plenty of talent on the defensive side of the football, particularly on the defensive line. Head coach Gus Malzahn takes over the play-calling once again with Lindsey defection but I do not see this leading to a transcendent difference in the play of their offense. This will be junior QB Jarrett Stidham’s last collegiate game before he makes himself available for the NFL draft but he oversaw an underperforming offense that scored just 18.4 PPG — almost 10 PPG below their season average — in their five games played on the road. The history of this team suggests this will be a lower-scoring game than expected. Auburn has played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total when priced in the +/- 3-point range — and the Under is 15-4-2 in their last 21 games against teams outside the SEC. The Under is also 6-0-2 in the Tigers’ last 8 games played on a neutral field — and the Under is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 bowl games. Purdue has played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after a point spread win. Senior QB David Blough passed for 310 yards in their last win over the Hoosiers to end the season — but the Boilermakers have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Purdue has only committed one turnover in three straight games — but they have then played 12 of their last 18 games Under the Total after not committing more than one turnover in their last game. Some observers are expecting a big offensive output from this team with head coach Jeff Brohm staying with the program after turning down overtures from Louisville where he oversaw huge offensive numbers as their quarterback. The Boilermakers put up 49 points against Ohio State in their upset win over the Buckeyes this season — but that was against a mess of an OSU defense that was not responding to coaching and basic fundamentals at that point of the season. This same offense scored only 13 points at Michigan State and a mere 10 points at Minnesota. Over their last three games, Purdue has averaged just 378.3 total YPG. This offense will likely struggle against the size and speed of the Auburn defensive line. Lastly, the Boilermakers have played 8 of their last 9 road games Under the Total after playing a conference rival.

FINAL TAKE: While both these teams have intriguing offensive head coaches, expect this bowl game to be a lower-scoring game this afternoon. 25* CFB Bowl Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Auburn Tigers (241) and the Purdue Boilermakers (242). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Take the Baylor Bears plus the points versus the Vanderbilt Commodores in the Texas Bowl. Baylor (6-6) looks to build off their 35-24 win at Texas Tech in their last game as a 6-point underdog. The Bears got their offense going by generating 478 yards of offense in that game. Baylor has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. The Bears have also covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games in the month of December. Vanderbilt (6-6) has won three of their last four games with their 38-13 win over Tennessee to close out their regular season. The Commodores held the Volunteers to just 139 yards of offense in that game — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after not allowing more than 170 passing yards in their last game. Additionally, while Vanderbilt did not force a turnover in that game, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after not forcing more than one turnover in their last game. Take Baylor plus the points. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports CA$HED the Denver-Oakland Under in the NFL on Monday in their last Football Totals play which continued their 19 of 28 (68%) FOOTBALL TOTALS TEAR! Now after passing in CFB Bowl Totals plays yesterday, Frank’s TOP THURSDAY TOTAL is with the Vandy-Baylor O/U winner on ESPN at 9 PM ET! WATCH & WIN — and BANK on Frank!

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) minus (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). THE SITUATION: Louisiana Tech (7-5) has lost their last two games after closing out their regular season on November 24th with a 30-15 upset loss at Western Kentucky as a 10.5-point favorite. Hawai’i (8-5) has won two straight games after they pulled off a 31-30 upset victory at San Diego State on November 24th as an 18-point underdog. The Rainbow Warriors are the host team in the Hawai’i Bowl taking place a couple days earlier than it’s traditional Christmas Eve or day spot.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS MINUS THE POINT(S): If there is one coach I am not going to worry too much about having his team ready to play even in Hawai’i over winter break, it is Skip Holtz who has led Louisiana Tech to win all four of their bowl games under his guidance in the previous five seasons with the program. Even better, the average winning margin for the Bulldogs under Holts has been by -20.5 PPG. After this team lost three of their last four games of the regular season, this is a business trip for this team. As it is, Louisiana Tech has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a point spread loss — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 17 games after a loss by at least 10 points on their home field. The Bulldogs did out-gain the Hilltoppers by a decisive +92 net yards in that contest while holding them to just 288 net yards but lost the Time of Possession battle by having the ball for only 25:57 minutes of that game. Little worries of that History Repeating itself tonight against this pass-happy Warriors offense. Western Kentucky has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game. Louisiana Tech ranks 32nd in the nation by holding their opponents to just 350.9 total YPG — and they have held their last three opponents to only 298.0 total YPG. Defensive coordinator Blake Baker will benefit from the extra few weeks to prepare for the unique relic of an offense that Hawai’i operates with their old Run-and-Shoot resurrected by their third-year head coach Nick Rolovich. Four close wins decided by one scoring possession for this Rainbow Warriors team obscures the fact that they were out-scored and out-gained in yardage by their opponents this season. They do have the home field advantage for this game but despite their 5-2 home record, they are only outscoring their visitors by 1.0 PPG. Over their last three games, Hawai’i was outscored by -10.3 PPG. They did generate 516 total yards against a collapsing San Diego State defense to end the season — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 24 of their last 32 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Louisiana Tech should be able to move the ball at will against this suspect Rainbow Warriors defense that ranked 101st in the nation by allowing 438.7 total YPG. Hawai’i has failed to cover the point spread in 23 of their last 32 games against teams with a winning record — and they are just 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams outside the Mountain West Conference.

FINAL TAKE: Home field advantage is tempting for the Rainbow Warriors tonight — but that edge only goes so far. A motivated Bulldogs team that is well-coached with a very good defense should overwhelm this Hawai’i team that has become too one dimensional on offense with the Run-and-Shoot gimmick. 25* CFB Bailout Game of the Year with the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (227) (or plus) the point(s) versus the Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (228). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). THE SITUATION: Buffalo (10-3) has lost two of their last three games with their 3-29 upset loss to Northern Illinois in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game as a 3-point favorite back on November 30th. Troy (9-3) looks to bounce-back from a 21-10 loss at Appalachian State back on November 24th as a 12-point underdog. These two teams meet in Mobile, Alabama for the Dollar General Bowl.

REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Buffalo has played 8 of their last 12 games Over the Total after a narrow loss by just 3 points or less against a conference rival — and the Over is also 3-1-1 in their last 5 games after a point spread loss. This Bulls team has a balanced offense that averages 195.8 rushing YPG (44th in the nation) and 221.6 passing YPG (73rd in the FBS) to produce an offense that ranks 24th in the nation by scoring 34.8 PPG. But stopping opposing offenses can be an issue for this team after they allowed a Northern Illinois offense that has been rather meek this season to generate 409 yards of offense. 300 of those yards were in the air in that game — and Buffalo has played 19 of their last 26 games Over the Total after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. Over their last three games, the Bulls are allowing 420.0 total YPG which is over 70 YPG more than their defensive average for the season. Buffalo has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against non-conference opponents — and the Over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Additionally, the Bulls have played 10 of their last 13 games Over the Total when playing with more than two weeks between games — and they have also played 7 of their last 8 games Over the Total with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. Troy has played 19 of their last 26 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road — and they have played 14 of their last 19 road games Over the Total after a loss on the road where they covered the point spread as an underdog. The Trojans have a good defense that ranks 23rd in the FBS by allowing just 21.2 PPG. But Troy has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 38 of their last 55 games Over the Total against teams outside the Sun Belt Conference. Furthermore, the Trojans have played 15 of their last 23 games Over the Total in expected close games where they were listed in the +/- 3-point range. Lastly, Troy has played 7 straight games Over the Total played on a neutral field — and they have played 7 straight games Over the Total in bowl games.

FINAL TAKE: Troy lost their starting quarterback, Kaleb Barker, to a season-ending ACL injury in the middle of the year — so the extra few weeks of practice and repetitions should really help sophomore QB Sawyer Smith. Boise State, UL-Monroe, Georgia State and South Alabama all had success moving the football against the Trojans defense. This should be a competitive game which should help push the Total over the number. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Total of the Year with Over the Total in the game between the Buffalo Bulls (225) and the Troy Trojans (226). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). THE SITUATION: Marshall (8-4) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st with their 41-20 loss at Virginia Tech as a 3.5-point underdog. South Florida (7-5) has lost five straight games after their 38-10 loss to Central Florida as a 16.5-point favorite back on November 23rd. With this bowl game being moved from St. Petersburg to Raymond James Stadium on Tampa Bay, the Bulls playing in their home stadium for this bowl game.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Under is 21-9-1 in South Florida’s last 31 games after a straight-up loss. The Bulls have also played 12 of their last 15 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total after a loss by at least four touchdowns. Furthermore, not only has South Florida played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after suffering three straight losses to conference rivals but they have also played 15 of their last 19 games Under the Total after losing five or six of their last seven games. The big question for this team is whether or not junior quarterback Blake Barnett will be able to take the field in this game. The former Alabama QB injured his ankle two games ago which kept him out of that final game with UCF. Barnett is officially listed as questionable for this contest and while he has taken off his walking boot this week, there is little other indication that he is actually ready to play in this game. I suspect that second-year head coach Charlie Strong will not risk further injury to his likely incumbent starter who has not practiced for this game and who will not be at 100%. But even if he plays, he will be running an offense that has scored only 16.7 PPG over their last three contests while wavering only 296.0 total YPG over that span. South Florida will lean on their rushing attack that averaged 202.5 rushing YPG which was 34th best in the nation. But running the ball will be difficult against this Thundering Herd defense that ranks 10th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 105.3 rushing YPG — and they limit opposing rushers to just a 2.98 Yards-Per-Carry. The Bulls only managed to pass for 113 yards against Central Florida in their last game — and they have played 12 of their last 14 games at home Under the Total after a game where they failed to pass for at least 125 yards. South Florida has also played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total when playing at home. Marshall has played 24 of their last 35 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 17 points. The Thundering Herd allowed the Hokies to average 7.09 Yards-Per-Play in their last game — but they have then played 25 of their last 36 games Under the Total after allowing at least 6.25 YPP in their last game. Head coach Doc Holliday should see his defense rebound with a better game tonight as they rank 23rd in the nation by allowing just 336.9 total YPG while also ranking tied for 29th in the FBS by giving up only 22.0 PPG. Marshall did not force any Virginia Tech turnovers in their last game — and they have played 7 straight games Under the Total after not forcing a turnover in their last game. Furthermore, the Thundering Herd have played 7 of their last 11 road games Under the Total when favored by no more than 3 points. And in their last 7 bowl games, Marshall has played 5 of these games Under the Total.

FINAL TAKE: The challenges for the South Florida offense increased when their offensive coordinator, Sterlin Gilbert, left for the McNeese State head coaching job during bowl prep. Strong has tapped Justin Blake to be his interim play-caller despite his lack of experience with those duties. With the Total set in the low-50s, expect this to be a lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Thursday ESPN Total of the Year with Under the Total in the Gasparilla Bowl between the Marshall Thundering Herd (215) and the South Florida Bulls (216). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). THE SITUATION: San Diego State (7-5) limps into the bowl season having lost three straight games after their 31-30 upset loss at home to Hawai’i to end their regular season despite being an 18-point favorite in that game back on November 24th. Ohio (8-4) has won two straight games with their 49-28 win over Akron as a 24-point favorite back on November 23rd. These two football programs meet for the first time in the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas tonight.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AZTECS PLUS THE POINTS: It was a strange season for San Diego State. After an opening week loss at Stanford, the Aztecs rattled off six-straight wins including impressive wins against Arizona State and at Boise State. But Rocky Long’s team was hit with the injury bug with starting quarterback Christian Chapman and running back Juwan Washington missing significant time with injuries — and that coincided with a difficult stretch of the season where they had challenging road games at Nevada and Fresno State. San Diego State lost three of four games down the stretch against Mountain West Conference rivals that were decided by just 15 combined points. The team was then flat in their season finale where they got upset by Hawai’i. But now Chapman and Washington are healthy again — and one thing this program has been under Long’s leadership is reliable when bouncing-back a from loss. The Aztecs have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 13 road games after a loss decided by 3 points or less — and they have covered the point spread in 25 of their last 37 road games after a loss to a conference rival. Additionally, San Diego State has covered the point spread in 16 of their last 21 games on the road after losing three of their last four games. Having Washington healthy should jumpstart this offense as he rushed for 870 yards with ten touchdowns despite playing in just eight games. The Aztecs are once again outstanding on the defensive side of the football where they rank 20th in the nation by limiting their opponents to only 327.4 total YPG. The Bobcats want to run the football as they rank 9th in the nation by rushing for 262.2 rushing YPG. But San Diego State ranks 4th in the nation by allowing only 94.5 rushing YPG this season — and opposing rushers averaged just 2.7 Yards-Per-Carry. The Aztecs faced six teams that qualified for bowl games this season — and those six teams averaged only 64.3 rushing YPG against this stout San Diego State defense. The Aztecs entered this season with a 32-9 record over their last three seasons. They are rarely an underdog under Long’s leadership — but when they are, they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games when getting the points. Ohio has failed to cover the point spread in 17 of their last 23 games after a win by at least 20 points. The Bobcats preceded that 21-point win over the Zips with a 35-point win over Buffalo the previous week — but Frank Solich’s team has failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after winning their last two games by at least three touchdowns. Ohio has also failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games when playing away from after winning their last two games by double-digits. The Bobcats out-rushed Akron by a whopping 349 net yards in their last game — but they have failed cover the point spread in 25 of their last 37 games after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 200 yards. Ohio has benefited from averaging +1.08 net turnovers per game this season which is the 5th best mark in the nation. They have not committed more than one turnover in six straight games. But after playing their last two games at home, they go on the road where they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games after not committing more than one turnover in three straight games. They will be facing an Aztecs team that has not committed a turnover in two straight games. The Bobcats thrived at home where they were a perfect 6-0 this season — but they were just 2-4 on the road while being out-gained by -30 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio has reached a bowl game in nine of the last ten seasons under Solich while enjoying a 41-6 blowout win over UAB in the Bahamas Bowl last year. San Diego State has reached a bowl game in all eight years in Long’s tenure but fourteen returning starters will look to redeem themselves from a 42-35 upset loss to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl as a 7-point favorite. With the Aztecs healthy again, they are probably the better team in this game — and they will be doubly motivated to use this game to erase last year’s underwhelming performance as well as the poor effort over three weeks against Hawai’i. 25* CFB Group of Five Bowl Game of the Year with the San Diego State Aztecs (214) plus the points versus the Ohio Bobcats (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). THE SITUATION: North Texas (9-3) has won two straight games as well as three of their last four games with their 24-21 win over UTSA as a 25-point favorite back on November 24th. Utah State (10-2) saw their ten-game winning streak snapped on that Saturday when they lost by a 33-24 score at Boise State as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MEAN GREEN PLUS THE POINTS: I do not like the dynamic from which Utah State enters this game. They suffered a deflating loss to the Broncos that ruined their Mountain West championship aspirations. As it is, the Aggies have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games after a loss to a conference rival — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 straight games when bouncing back from a loss on the road to a conference rival. And while Utah State has not covered the point spread in their last two games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team is also without their head coach Matt Wells who left the program after that game to become the new head coach for Texas Tech. With interim head coach Frank Maile operating as a lame duck before Gary Andersen returns to the program to serve as the Aggies’ head coach again, it is questionable as to just how motivated this team will be for this game. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games in the month of December. The Aggies have benefited from a +0.92 net turnover margin per game which is 8th best in the nation — but they did not force a turnover and suffered a -2 net turnover margin in that loss to Boise State. Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 12 of their last 18 games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. Defense is also a concern for this team as they have allowed 471.1 total YPG which is over 85 YPG above their season average. Teams can pass on this team as they rank 84th in the nation by giving up 240.1 passing YPG. This is also a team that thrives at home with a dominant 35-9 mark at home over the years. Both of the Aggies’ losses were on the road this year where they were out-gained away from home by -47.8 net YPG. Additionally, Utah State has failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 19 games against teams with a winning record. North Texas has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by 3 points or less against a Conference USA rival — and they have covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 games after winning two straight games against conference rivals. Furthermore, the Mean Green has covered the point spread in 9 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win where they failed to cover the point spread as the favorite. North Texas may scare off some bettors considering that they have only covered the point spread once in their last eight games — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. Led by quarterback Matt Fine who has passed for over 3700 yards this season while posting a sterling 27:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio, the Mean Green has generated 511 and 516 yards in each of their last two games. North Texas has covered the point spread in 4 straight games after gaining at least 450 yards in two straight contests. Fine should find success against this Aggies pass defense as he leads an offense that ranks 11th in the nation by averaging 316.3 passing YPG. While the UNT pass defense is vulnerable, the Mean Green defense can make Utah State one-dimensional as they rank 15th in the nation by allowing only 113.5 rushing YPG. Lastly, North Texas has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games against non-conference opponents.

FINAL TAKE: North Texas has reached a bowl game in each of the first two seasons under third-year head coach Seth Littrell — but they have yet to win that final game. The Mean Green should be very motivated to earth their first bowl win under Littrell while reaching the ten-win milestone this season. 25* CFB New Mexico Bowl Special Feature with the North Texas Mean Green (201) plus the points versus the Utah State Aggies (202). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). THE SITUATION: Tulane (6-6) became bowl eligible by winning four of their last five games with their 29-28 victory over Navy on November 24th as a 5-point favorite. UL-Lafayette (7-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on December 1st in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game where they lost at Appalachian State by a 17.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane will be very excited to be playing in their first bowl game since 2014 — and their first postseason game under third-year head coach Willie Fritz. The Green Wave were inches away from being bowl eligible last season before getting stuff on the goal line in their upset bid against SMU leaving them at 5-7 and ailing to become bowl eligible. This moment has been a long time coming for this program that returned fourteen starters from last year’s team. Tulane has covered the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a narrow win at home by 3 points or less. The Green Wave have lost three games this season decided by 7 points or less. And while they have not covered the point spread in four of their last six games, they have then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in four or five of their last six games. This team has improved on offense since Justin McMillan took over at quarterback. The graduate transfer from LSU has throw ten touchdown passes in his last five games after completing 18 of 29 passes for 291 yards with three TD passes against the Midshipmen while adding another touchdown with 51 rushing yards in that victory. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last game. Tulane did not force a turnover in that game — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to force at least one turnover in their last contest. This team led the American Athletic Conference by allowing just 5.4 Yards-Per-Play in conference games. They are particularly tough against the run as they ranked second in the AAC by allowing just 152.6 rushing YPG — and they held their opponents to only 3.95 Yards-Per-Carry. They held their opponents to 38 YPG below their offensive season average. Furthermore, the Green Wave have covered the point spread in 19 of their last 29 games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. UL-Lafayette has covered the point spread in eight of their last ten games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 8 games after failing to cover the point spread in six or seven of their last eight games. This is not a good matchup for this Ragin’ Cajuns team facing an opponent from a superior conference. UL-Lafayette relies on running the football so they will be playing into the strength of the Tulane defense — and they only average 208.0 passing YPG which is 89th in the FBS. The Ragin’ Cajun defense struggles to defend the run as they rank 107th in the nation by allowing 210.0 rushing YPG — and their opponents average 5.8 Yards-Per-Carry. They face a big challenge when facing this Green Wave offense that is 30th in the nation by averaging 208.3 rushing YPG. UL-Lafayette may be facing some new wrinkles as well after Fritz fired his offensive coordinator Doug Ruse after the Navy game. Alex Atkins will be calling the plays for this game. The Ragin’ Cajuns allowed their opponents to average 41 YPG above their offensive season average. They have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. And while they have played two straight games Under the Total, they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after playing two straight Unders.

FINAL TAKE: I like the dynamic this Tulane team has entering this game with the challenge of a new offensive coordinator helping to focus their attention as they play their first bowl game in years. UL-Lafayette usually is tapped to play in the New Orleans Bowl in the opening Saturday of the bowl season. This Green Wave is more battle-tested having played in an American Athletic Conference that is significantly better than the Sun Belt. 25* CFB CBS Sports Network Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (203) minus the points versus the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (204). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). THE SITUATION: Navy (3-9) enters their rivalry game coming off a 29-28 loss at Tulane as a 5-point underdog back on November 24th. Army (9-2) has won seven straight games with their 28-24 win over Colgate as an 11-point favorite back on November 17th.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: These two teams have played 10 straight Unders — and there are a few fundamental reasons why that is the case. For starters, both teams run similar spread triple options — so the usual advantage that these teams enjoy during the regular season with facing opponents that are not as familiar with their unique offenses are gone in this matchup. Both these defenses practice against this offense every day. Second, both teams have extra weeks to prepare their defenses for the particular nuances of their opponent’s offense. In theory, this extra time could also be used to add a few wrinkles to the offenses. However, in practice, both these teams lack the personnel to all of the sudden start running the West Coast Offense (for example). Now, we cannot simply be zombies and automatically take the Under in each Army-Navy game. This year’s Total has dropped to the 40 point range which is the lowest number over those last ten encounters. Eventually, the Over will be the appropriate play. But when considering that five of the last six meetings between these two teams have not seen more than 38 combined points scored, I am still very comfortable taking the Under in this game. Army should slow down the Midshipmen rushing attack as they rank 12th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 106.5 rushing YPG. The Black Knights have played 16 of their last 21 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 13 of their last 16 games Under the Total in the month of December. Furthermore, Army has played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total when playing with a bye week — and they have played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total when playing on grass. Navy has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total when playing on a neutral field — and they have played 14 of their last 18 games Under the Total in the month of December. Additionally, the Midshipmen have played 8 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a loss on the road. Navy only scores 21.7 PPG when playing away from home — and they average just 310.4 total YPG on the road. Lastly, the Midshipmen have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing as an underdog getting 3.5 to 10 points.

FINAL TAKE: Expect another low-scoring game between these two teams in cold temperatures (but no snow) with Philadelphia forecasting to have their temp in the 30s. 25* CFB Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Navy Midshipmen (103) and the Army West Point Black Knights (104). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). THE SITUATION: Northwestern (8-4) has won three straight games with their 24-16 win over Illinois as a 16-point favorite last week. Ohio State (11-1) has won four straight games with their triumphant 62-39 upset win over Michigan as a 3.5-point underdog last Saturday.

REASONS TO TAKE THE WILDCATS PLUS THE POINTS: No one doubts the talent level with this Buckeyes team — but this team has been underachieving all season. The issues regarding Urban Meyer were a distraction for this team early on — but it just seems like the culture of this team has gone in the wrong direction considering their 29-point loss at Purdue along with a narrow victory at Maryland that might have been decided when the Terrapins decided to go for the win rather than the tie with a 2-point conversion attempt in overtime. Ohio State has much more talent than either of those teams — and they will be facing a Wildcats team that is more talented than either of those two Big Ten rivals. The Buckeyes played their best game of the season — or in many seasons — last week against their arch rival. The last time Ohio State was a home underdog was in 2011 when they hosted Wisconsin — and they had not been an underdog to the Wolverines since 2004. This was a team clearly motivated to make a statement. But emotional letdowns are common after big wins like that — and this Buckeyes’ team is particularly susceptible to inconsistency. Not only has Ohio State failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a straight-up win but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 20 points. Furthermore, the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 13 games after winning their last four games. No tricks were saved on offense last week against the top statistical unit in the country — and Ohio State ripped the Michigan defense for 567 total yards while averaging 8.46 Yards-Per-Play. But the Buckeyes have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 20 road games after averaging at least 7.25 YPP. Failure to play fundamental football has been the biggest weakness for this team this season — it is as if the players have stopped listening to the coaches. The Michigan game was probably an exception with all the players on notice — but this defense ranks 67th in the nation by allowing 398.8 total YPG despite being loaded with NFL talent. It is even worse when they play away from home as they are allowing 470.2 total YPG when playing on the road. Northwestern is battle-tested with a 3-point loss to Michigan and a 10-point loss to Notre Dame. The Wildcats play strong defense as they rank tied for 29th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 21.7 PPG — and that marks drop to a mere 17.0 PPG when this team is playing away from home where they are a perfect 5-0 this year. Under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, this team is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games in conference play — and they are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. This team is the epitome of dangerous underdogs given their strong fundamental play. The Wildcats have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 15 games as a dog with nine outright wins. Furthermore, they have covered the point spread in 10 of their last 11 games as a double-digit underdog — and they have seven outright wins in those games. Northwestern has also covered the point spread in 7 straight games as an underdog against Big Ten opponents with six of those games being where they pulled the upset.

FINAL TAKE: Ohio State needs a statement victory to overcome Oklahoma to reach the final four in the playoff race (assuming that Georgia does not upset Alabama). When in a similar situation in 2014, the Buckeyes responded by destroying Wisconsin by a 59-0 score. We had Ohio State in that game — but I don’t think this group can flip the switch the way this program could under Meyer a long four years ago. These two teams last played in late of October of last season where another uber-talented Buckeyes team only won by a 24-20 score. In this classic letdown spot, I look for Ohio State to struggle against a sound opponent. 25* CFB Fox-TV Game of the Year with the Northwestern Wildcats (321) plus the points versus the Ohio State Buckeyes (322). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). THE SITUATION: Fresno State (10-2) reached the Mountain West Conference Championship Game with their 31-13 win over San Jose State last Saturday as 32-point favorites. Boise State (10-2) matched them last week with their 33-24 win over Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BULLDOGS PLUS THE POINTS: Fresno State has covered the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after a point spread setback. The Bulldogs generated 515 yards of offense against the Spartans last week — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 28 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. Led by quarterback Marcus McMaryion, Fresno State averages 282.8 passing YPG which is 23rd best in the nation. Pass defense is a vulnerability for the Broncos as they rank 79th in the nation by allowing 238.9 passing YPG. But where this Bulldogs team shines is on the defensive side of the football where they rank 2nd in the nation by allowing only 13.5 PPG — and they rank 17th in the nation by giving up 321.7 total YPG. Fresno State has been even stingier on the road as home teams are scoring just 12.0 PPG against them while averaging a mere 324.8 total YPG. The Bulldogs have covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Additionally, Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a winning record at home. Additionally, Fresno State has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Boise State (10-2) has played two straight clean games when it comes to committing turnovers — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 11 of their last 17 games after not committing a turnover in their last game. The Aggies passed for 363 yards last week in that loss — and the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 3 straight games after allowing at least 325 passing yards in their last game. Boise State has scored 78 combined points in their last two games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after scoring at least 31 points in two straight games. They get to host this game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 22 games on their blue home field. Furthermore, not only have the Broncos failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 8 home games with the Total set in that range.

FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of a 24-17 upset win that Boise State pulled off back on November 9th as a 2-point underdog. After losing at home to San Diego State in October, the Broncos survived two games at home against the Bulldogs and BYU that were settled by one scoring possession before scoring with four (darn) seconds left in the game last week to pull away from Utah State. Look for Boise State’s good fortunes at home in close games to finally run out tonight against an opponent with an elite defense that will be motivated with double-revenge from not only this year but also losing in Boise in last year’s Mountain West Conference Championship Game. 25* CFB Saturday Night Special Feature with the Fresno State Bulldogs (317) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (318). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 1:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). THE SITUATION: These two teams meet again in Murfreesboro for the second straight week after Middle Tennessee (8-4) won last Saturday’s game by a 27-3 score in an upset where they were 3-point underdogs. UAB (9-3) travels back looking to avenge that loss and to win the Conference USA Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE BLAZERS PLUS THE POINTS: UAB had their spot in this championship game clinched before playing last week — but winning that game would have ensured that they hosted the conference championship game back in Birmingham. Perhaps head coach Bill Clark preferred to hold back some plays last week and ensure the opportunity to face these Blue Raiders again this week even if it meant playing on their home field? Either way, it looks pretty evident that Clark had the Blazers take their foot off the proverbial gas pedal after falling behind by a 13-3 score at halftime in that game. UAB managed only 89 yards of offense in that game. Clark is an outstanding coach who has pulled off a minor miracle to get this team to the conference championship game despite going on a two-year hiatus four years ago. Clark was rewarded on Friday with a big contract extension that makes him the highest paid football coach in Conference USA. He should have his team ready to play a great game. The Blazers have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after suffering an upset loss by at least 17 points despite being favored in that game. UAB is also 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after a straight-up loss as well as being 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games after a loss by at least 20 points — so this group has proven themselves to be very resilient under Clark’s leadership. Furthermore, the Blazers have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games when avenging a loss where they did not score more than 9 points — and they have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss by at least three touchdowns to their opponent. UAB has lost their last two games with both those contests being played on the road. But the Blazers have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 17 games after losing their last two contests on the road — and they have also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after suffering two straight losses on the road by double-digits. UAB should get their offense going this week — they rank 30th in the nation by averaging 207.5 rushing YPG. They are 20-8-2 ATS in their last 30 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game — and they are 10-4-2 ATS in their last 16 games after failing to gain at least 275 yards in their last game. But where this team should really see improvements in this rematch is on the other side of the football where they rank 8th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 287.2 total YPG. UAB is also 9th in the FBS by allowing just 16.7 PPG — and they out-gain their home hosts when playing on the road by +46.7 net YPG. This stout defense has helped the Blazers cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Middle Tennessee may not be able to prevent themselves from suffering from a bit of a letdown after winning easily last week to earn their opportunity to win the conference championship. As it is, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win at home by at least 17 points — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 3 of their last 4 games after an upset win as an underdog. Middle Tennessee did not commit a turnover last week but that might not bode well for them now as they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after playing a game where they did not commit a turnover. The Blue Raiders get the opportunity to host this game at their Floyd Stadium where they are 5-0 this season — but they are only out-gaining their visitors by +35.8 net YPG. Middle Tennessee has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games in the month of December. And in their last 9 expected close games where they are listed in the +/- 3-point range, the Blue Raiders have failed to cover the point spread in 6 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: I suspect that Clark kept a few tricks up his sleeve with the expectation that this rematch would be occurring this week. He will have a very eager and motivated team looking to redeem themselves from the thumping they received last week. It will be difficult for the Blue Raiders to maintain the intensity and sense of urgency that they displayed last week. 25* CFB Game of the Year with the UAB Blazers (307) plus the points versus the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (308). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). THE SITUATION: UL-Lafayette (7-5) reached the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game with their 31-28 upset win at UL-Monroe last Saturday as a 1.5-point underdog. Appalachian State (9-2) has won four games in a row with their 21-10 win over Troy last week as a 12-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Mountaineers have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total after a double-digit win over a conference rival. Appalachian State held the Trojans to just 223 yards of offense while winning the rushing battle by a decisive 139 net yards. The Mountaineers have played 20 of their last 28 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last opponent by at least 125 yards. Appalachian State’s spread option offensive attack defines the program — but that aspect of their game should not distract from the outstanding defense that head coach Scott Satterfield has overseen in his sixth year with the program. Five starters returned to a defense that was tied for 21st in the nation by holding their opponents to just 20.2 PPG — and they also ranked 29th in total defense by allowing only 342.5 total YPG. This year’s unit has been even better as they rank 5th in the nation by allowing just 15.4 PPG — and they also rank 4th in the FBS by giving up only 278.2 total YPG. The Mountaineers are even stingier playing at home where they give up only 11.6 PPG along with just 271.4 total YPG — and over their last three games, this group is allowing a mere 11.3 PPG along with 259.7 total YPG. Appalachian State has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have also played 14 of their last 19 games Under the Total with the number set in the 56.5 to 63 point range. UL-Lafayette raced out to a 24-21 halftime lead against the Warhawks last week before hanging out to win by a 31-28 score. The Ragin’ Cajuns have then played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a win by 3 points or less — and they have played 18 of their last 27 games Under the Total after scoring at least 24 points in the first-half of their last contest. UL-Lafayette has scored at least 31 points in three straight games — but they have then played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after scoring at least 31 points in three straight games. Furthermore, the Ragin Cajuns have seen the Under go 17-8-1 in their last 26 games in Sun Belt Conference play — and they have also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total in the month of December. This championship game is a rematch of the October 20th meeting between these two teams that the Mountaineers won by a 27-17 score in their Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Ragin’ Cajuns did a pretty good job of slowing down the Appalachian State offense as they generated only 364 total yards which were over 118 yards below their season offensive average when playing at home. UL-Lafayette has played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total when looking to avenge a loss on the road to their opponent.

FINAL TAKE: The Ragin Cajuns should play even better on defense in this rematch with the benefit of their experience facing this offensive scheme in October. UL-Lafayette ranks 104th in the nation by allowing 443.3 total YPG but they have allowed over -45 YPG less than that over their last three games. These two teams have played 4 of their last 5 meetings Under the Total. 25* CFB Conference Championships Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the UL-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (313) and the Appalachian State Mountaineers (314). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). THE SITUATION: Utah (9-3) has won three straight games with their 35-27 win over BYU last Saturday as a 10.5-point favorite. Washington (9-3) has also won three in a row after they upset Washington State on the road last Friday as a 2.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Huskies have played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. Washington held the powerful Cougars offense to only 237 total yards in an outstanding defensive effort — and they have played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game. The Huskies were one of my dark horse candidates to win the National Championship this season in large part because they returned nine starters from a stout group that was 5th in the nation by allowing only 16.1 PPG while ranking 8th in the FBS by holding their opponents to just 298.8 total YPG. This year’s defense ranks 8th in the FBS by allowing 16.5 PPG while also ranking 13th in the nation by limiting their opponents to 311.3 total YPG — so this group has only a slight decline in their outstanding numbers. What has held this Washington team back has been a disappointing offense that is scoring only 28.0 PPG (tied for 75th in the nation) after averaging 36.2 PPG last season with quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin as juniors. The offensive line has taken a step back this season with the unit suffering a big loss with the season-ending injury to senior left tackle Trey Adams who was projected as a potential top-ten pick in the NFL draft. The Huskies did generate 487 yards against the Cougars last week — but they have then played 6 of their last 8 games Under the Total after gaining at least 450 yards in their last contest. The formula for success for head coach Chris Petersen’s team is winning the war in the trenches. They have out-rushed their last three opponents by at least 100 yards — and they have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after out-rushing their last three opponents by at least 100 yards. Washington has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 7 of their 10 games Under the Total as the favorite. Utah has played 9 of their last 12 games Under the Total after a win at home — and they have played 6 straight games Under the Total when playing on the road after a victory on their home field. Furthermore, the Utes have played 20 of their last 28 road games Under the Total after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. Utah only gained 296 yards of offense against the Cougars but benefited from a 27-yard interception that they returned for a touchdown. The Utes have an elite defense that allows only 19.3 PPG (17th in the nation) — and they rank 15th in the FBS by only allowing 315.8 total YPG. Utah has the nation’s 5th best rushing defense that holds their opponents to only 100.3 rushing YPG — led by defensive line coach Gary Andersen who was a steal of a hire by head coach Kyle Whittingham after his stint at Oregon State soured last season. This is a rematch of the Huskies’ 21-7 victory over the Utes back on September 15th. Utah had junior Tyler Huntley under center for that game along with junior Zack Moss in their backfield — but both leaders on offense have since suffered season-ending injuries. For this rematch, the Utes will be using redshirt freshman Jason Shelley under center. While he has played well, he is likely a step back from Huntley who led an offense that only generated 261 yards with the one score. The defense did limit the Huskies to just 327 yards in that initial game — and I expect another gritty defensive performance. Utah has played 31 of their last 48 games Under the Total as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points.

FINAL TAKE: Utah knows they cannot get into a high-scoring affair with the Huskies given the injuries they have suffered on offense. This Washington team only scores 22.2 PPG in their six games away from home — so this game shapes up to be a low-scoring contest. 25* CFB Pac-12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Utah Utes (305) and the Washington Huskies (306). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Northern Illinois (7-5) limps into the Mid-American Conference Championship Game with their 28-21 upset loss at Western Michigan back on November 20th as a 6.5-point favorite. Buffalo (10-2) clinched their opportunity to win the conference championship with a 44-14 win at Bowling Green last Friday as a 16-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HUSKIES PLUS THE POINTS: Northern Illinois has suffered two straight upset losses in a row as their loss to the Broncos was preceded by a 13-7 upset loss at home to Miami (OH) as a 6.5-point favorite. But because the Huskies raced out to a 6-0 record in conference play, the team was in firm control of winning the MAC West Division despite then losing their last two games. There is no better way for Rod Carey’s team to erase the memory of these last two setbacks then by winning this game and winning their conference title. This team returned fourteen starters from last year’s group that finished 8-5. This is the team’s first trip back to Ford Field in Detroit to play in this game in the last three years. As usual, this is a battle-tested team that played Utah at home while also traveling to play Iowa, BYU and Florida State in their non-conference schedule. They should play very well tonight as they have covered the point spread in 13 of their last 20 games after a loss by 7 points or less against a conference opponent. Northern Illinois did allow 285 passing yards to Western Michigan in their last game — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after allowing at least 280 passing yards in their last game. The Huskies are led by their outstanding defense that ranks 26th in the nation by allowing only 344.0 total YPG. They rank 13th in the nation by holding their opponents to just 107.0 rushing YPG. Northern Illinois has only allowed 94 rushing yards in each of their last two games — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after not allowing more than 125 rushing yards in two straight games. The Huskies are due for some better luck when it comes to the bouncing ball that often determines turnovers as they have endured a -2 or worse net turnover margin in three straight games. But Northern Illinois has covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after losing the turnover battle in three straight games. Moving forward, the Huskies have covered the point spread in 23 of their last 33 road games in the month of November. Buffalo raced out to a 34-7 halftime lead over Bowling Green last week — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after holding at least a 24-point halftime lead in their last game. The Bulls are led by one of the best offensive lines in the country that helped them churn out 332 rushing yards against the Falcons meager defensive line (as we predicted when taking Buffalo in that game) — but this team has failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after rushing for at least 300 yards in their last game. The Bulls held the Bowling Green offense to only 58 rushing yards — but they have then failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 17 road games after not allowing more than 100 rushing yards in their last contest. But run defense is an issue for this team as their opponents are averaging 169.5 rushing YPG this season which is 74th in the nation. On paper, the Northern Illinois offense looks weak as they rank 124th in the FBS by averaging only 318.0 total YPG — but that mark rises over 50 YPG to a 369.0 total YPG mark in conference play. This is Buffalo’s third straight game away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games when playing on a neutral field.

FINAL TAKE: Northern Illinois is in a better position to win this game given their experience in this game along with their brutal non-conference schedule and the extra days they have had to rest and prepare for this showdown. Their defense should frustrate a Bulls’ offense that ranks last in the MAC in Red Zone offense. This is the biggest football game for this Buffalo team perhaps in program history — they have not even played in a bowl game since 2013. 25* CFB Underdog of the Month with the Northern Illinois Huskies (303) plus the points versus the Buffalo Bulls (304). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). THE SITUATION: Utah State (10-1) enters their final game of the regular season coming off a 29-24 win at Colorado State as a 30.5-point favorite. Boise State (9-2) enters this game coming off a 45-14 win at New Mexico as a 21-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE AGGIES PLUS THE POINTS: The close call with the Rams should get the attention of this team. Those 29 points were the second-fewest that Utah State has scored all season — and two of their touchdowns were scored on defense. The Aggies are second in the nation by scoring 49.3 PPG but they only had the ball for 17:55 minutes in that game against Colorado State. The weather did play a role in that contest — but that close call will help head coach Matt Wells communicate that his team can take nothing for granted tonight. Utah State has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a point spread loss. The Aggies have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after a straight-up victory. Utah State has been very good on the road this year where their only loss was a 7-point loss at East Lansing against Michigan State in their opening game of the season. The Aggies are 4-1 away from home this year while outscoring their hosts by +14.0 PPG. Utah State needs to play better on defense this week after allowing 506 yards to Colorado State last week. The Rams have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 9 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Utah State ranks 34th in the nation by allowing only 22.1 PPG. The Total is set in the high-60s for this game — and the Aggies have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 20 games with the Total set at 63 or higher. Boise State had only scored 45 combined points in their previous two games at home against San Diego State and Fresno State before traveling to Albuquerque to face the Lobos last week. The Broncos are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring at least 40 points in their last game. Boise State held New Mexico and their run-based spread offense to just 103 passing yards (on just 14 pass attempts). The Broncos’ previous five opponents had generated at least 242 passing yards with that lowest number being from a run-oriented Air Force team that averaged 15.1 Yards-Per-Attempt in the air. Boise State allows 226.9 passing YPG which is just 63rd in the nation — and that likely spells trouble when now facing quarterback Jordan Love who leads an offense that is 22nd in the nation by averaging 282.1 passing YPG. The Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 8 straight games after not allowing more than 125 passing yards in their last game. Boise State enjoyed a +3 net turnover margin in that win over the Lobos after not committing a turnover in that game. But the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 home games after a game where they did not commit a turnover. Boise State has also failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games on their blue field at home. And in their last 19 games against teams with a winning record, the Broncos have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: The winner of this game advances to the Mountain West Conference Championship Game — so the stakes could not be higher. The Aggies also will have revenge on their minds after getting blown out by the Broncos last year by a 41-14 score. Eighteen starters returned from that team. Wells’ teams in the past could not win close games — they entered this season having lost their last eight games decided by one scoring possession. But after that opening loss to Michigan State, Utah State has won their only two games decided by one score with the experience of this team finally paying off. Don’t be surprised if this team pulls the upset — but take the points for some insurance. 25* CFB Saturday ESPN Bailout Game of the Year with the Utah State Aggies (181) plus the points versus the Boise State Broncos (182). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). THE SITUATION: UAB (9-2) looks to bounce-back from a 41-20 loss at Texas A&M last Saturday as a 17-point underdog. Middle Tennessee (7-4) saw their four-game winning streak snapped with their step up in class against a team from the SEC last week in their 34-23 loss at Kentucky as a 16.5-point underdog.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Don’t blame the Blue Raiders defense for their loss to the Wildcats as they held Kentucky to just 324 yards of offense. A -2 net turnover margin played a critical role in deciding that game. The Under is 7-1-1 in Middle Tennessee’s last 9 games after a straight-up loss. The Blue Raiders surrendered 203 rushing yards to Kentucky in that game — but the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games after allowing at least 200 rushing yards in their last game. Senior quarterback Brent Stockstill did pass for 293 yards in that game — but the Under is 5-1-1 in their last 7 games after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. Now Middle Tennessee returns home where they are allowing only 21.0 PPG which is 6.2 PPG lower than their season average. The Under is 8-1-1 in the Blue Raiders’ last 10 games at home — and they have played 5 of their last 6 home games Under the Total against teams with a winning record on the road. Middle Tennessee has also played 9 of their last 10 home games Under the Total with the number set in the 49.5 to 52 point range. UAB has played 4 straight games Under the Total after a straight-up loss — and they have played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after a loss by at least 20 points. This team did surrender 41 points to the Aggies last week — but they have then played 5 of their last 7 games Under the Total after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. UAB holds their home hosts to just 19.0 PPG along with only 294.2 total YPG when playing on the road. But the Blazers see their 31.9 PPG scoring margin for the season drop to just 26.6 PPG when playing away home. UAB has played 8 of their last 10 road games Under the Total. Furthermore, the Blazers have played 6 of their last 7 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record — and they have played 11 of their last 14 games Under the Total against fellow Conference USA opponents.

FINAL TAKE: UAB has clinched a spot in the Conference USA championship game next week — and they could face this Blue Raiders team again next week if they lose this game while FIU loses at Marshall (as now a home dog). The Blazers may hold back a trick or two on offense because of this possibility. UAB won last year’s game by a 25-23 score with that total set in the 55.5 range. Expect another lower-scoring game. 25* CFB Conference USA Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between the UAB Blazers (189) and the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (190). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). THE SITUATION: Tulane (5-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Thursday with their 48-17 loss at Houston as a 7.5-point underdog. Navy (3-8) snapped their seven-game losing streak with their 37-29 win over Tulsa last Saturday as 5-point favorites.

REASONS TO TAKE THE GREEN WAVE MINUS THE POINTS: Tulane has failed to cover the point spread in their last two games — but they have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in their last two contests. The Green Wave is also 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after failing to score at least 20 points in their last game. Now, this Tulane team returns home where they are outscoring their visitors by +7.4 PPG while out-gaining these opponents by +46.5 net YPG. The Green Wave have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home — and they have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 22 home games again teams with a losing record on the road. Additionally, Tulane has covered the point spread in 12 of their last 16 home games when favored in the 3.5 to 7.5 point range — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games with the Total set in the 49.5 to 56 point range. The Green Wave are doing a good job of implementing head coach Willie Fritz’s run-first spread offense as they rank 25th in the nation by averaging 215.5 rushing YPG. This ground game should have plenty of success against the faltering Midshipmen defense that ranks 92nd in the nation by allowing 194.5 rushing YPG. It has been a lost season for this Navy team that returned only nine starters from a team that dropped six of their last seven games in the regular season last year. With this group not eligible for a bowl with just three wins, this team may be looking ahead for their rivalry game with Army. As it is, the Midshipmen are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after a straight-up win. Navy has been a disaster on the road this season where they are 0-6 with an average losing margin of -20.3 net PPG. They are also being out-gained by -154.1 net YPG in these six road games. The Midshipmen have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games. Navy has also failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.

FINAL TAKE: Tulane needs this victory to become bowl eligible for the first time in Fritz’s three years with the program. They are also playing with revenge on their mind after losing to the Midshipmen last year by a 23-21 score. The Green Wave did limit Navy to just 194 rushing yards in that game as they contained their spread triple option to averaging just 3.73 Yards-Per-Carry. I like that Tulane had an extra two days of rest and preparation for this unique offense. 25* CFB American Athletic Conference Game of the Year with the Tulane Green Wave (214) minus the points versus the Navy Midshipmen (213). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). THE SITUATION: West Virginia (8-2) looks to bounce-back from a 45-41 upset loss at Oklahoma State last week as a 6-point favorite. Oklahoma (10-1) has won five straight games with their 55-40 victory over Kansas last week as a 35-point favorite. The winner of this game earns the right to play Texas next week in the Big 12 Championship Game.

REASONS TO TAKE THE MOUNTAINEERS PLUS THE POINTS: West Virginia had won three straight games before being upset by the Cowboys — but Dana Holgorsen’s team can redeem themselves from that loss with a win tonight. Led by Heisman Trophy candidate Will Grier at quarterback, the Mountaineers have a powerful offense that ranks 10th in the nation by averaging 502.0 total YPG. West Virginia has scored at least 41 points in four straight games and they generated 553 yards of offense last week against Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after gaining at least 525 yards in their last game. They return home where they are a perfect 5-0 while scoring 46.0 PPG and generating 540.2 total YPG. Grier leads a passing attack that is 5th in the nation by averaging 340.0 passing YPG — and he should have plenty of success against this Sooners’ pass defense that ranks 107th in the nation by allowing 263.6 passing YPG. Defense is an issue for this West Virginia team (as it is for all Big 12 teams). But they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing at least 40 points in their last game. Playing back in Morgantown should help this team as they are allowing only 13.8 PPG along with just 281.2 total YPG at home. West Virginia is outscoring their opponents by +32.8 net PPG while out-gaining their guests by +259 net YPG. The Mountaineers have covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home — and they have also covered the point spread in 6 of their last 9 home games as the underdog. West Virginia is also 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. Oklahoma may be due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a straight-up win. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win at home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a win over a conference rival. The Sooners did generate 568 yards against the Jayhawks — they averaged 7.89 Yards-Per-Play in that game. Oklahoma had averaged 9.12 YPP in their previous game — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 12 road games after averaging at least 6.75 YPP in their last two games. The bigger concern for this team is on the other side of the football where they have allowed at least 40 points in three straight games. The Sooners are allowing 425.8 total YPG which not only ranks 87th in the nation but is -73.6 net YPG worse than what West Virginia allows. Oklahoma allowed the Kansas offense to generate 524 yards against them — and they have then failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Furthermore, not only have the Sooners failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games on the road but they have also failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 road games as the favorite.

FINAL TAKE: Last year’s Oklahoma team allowed under 395 yards per game — yet head coach Lincoln Riley fired defensive coordinator Mike Stoops for that unit finishing outside the top-50 in defense for the sixth time since 2012. This defense appears even worse. Look for West Virginia to outscore this Sooners team back on their home field. 25* CFB Friday ESPN Game of the Year with the West Virginia Mountaineers (142) plus the points versus the Oklahoma Sooners (141). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). THE SITUATION: Iowa (7-4) snapped their three-game losing streak last Saturday with their dominant 63-0 win at Illinois as a 15-point favorite. Nebraska (4-7) has won two straight as well as four of their last five games with their 9-6 win over Michigan State as a 1.5-point favorite last week.

REASONS TO TAKE THE HAWKEYES MINUS THE POINTS: Iowa should build off the momentum of their blowout victory. They have covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 games after both a straight-up win as well as after a point spread victory. Additionally, the Hawkeyes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after not allowing more than 20 points in their last game. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s team is one of the best defensive teams in the nation. They rank 9th in the FBS by allowing only 16.5 PPG — and they rank an even better 6th in the nation by giving up only 279.5 total YPG. After playing three of their last four games on the road, they return home to Iowa City for Senior Day where they are outscoring their opponents by +11.3 PPG due their stifling defense that limits their visitors to just 11.0 PPG along with a mere 243.8 total YPG. Iowa is also out-gaining their guests by +125.4 total YPG. The Hawkeyes are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games on their home field. Iowa has also covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Nebraska defeated Sparty in the snow last Saturday despite being outgained by -41 net yards. The Cornhuskers managed only 248 yards of offense against the Michigan State defense. That is not a good sign for this contest. Not only are they just 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after failing to score more than 20 points in their last game but they are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after failing to generate more than 275 yards of offense in that contest. Head coach Scott Frost’s team is also just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games after a point spread victory. Not they finish their disappointing season on the road where they are 0-4 this year while being outscored by -17.7 net PPG and out-gained by -102.5 net YPG.

FINAL TAKE: Frost has to get his team into the weight room as he looks to change the nature of this Nebraska program. The Cornhuskers’ defense has plummeted over the years — these Blackshirts rank tied for 96th in the nation by allowing 434.8 total YPG. These soft defenses are the type of teams that the Hawkeyes expose in the Ferentz era — especially when playing at home in Kinnick Stadium. 25* CFB Big Ten Game of the Year with the Iowa Hawkeyes (124) minus the points versus the Nebraska Cornhuskers (123). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). THE SITUATION: Mississippi (5-6) has lost four straight games with their 36-29 loss in overtime at Vanderbilt as a 3-point underdog last Saturday. Mississippi State (7-4) has won three of their last four games after enjoying their biggest victory of the season last week with their 52-6 blowout win over Arkansas as a 23.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE REBELS PLUS THE POINTS: Ole Miss seemingly scored the winning touchdown in overtime before a penalty erased that play. It has been a disappointing season in the first-year under head coach Matt Luke who had the interim job last year after the program imploded when the actions of grifter Hugh Freeze came to light. The football program imposed a bowl ban for this year’s team — so this is the proverbial de-facto bowl game for this team with its nineteen seniors. In this rivalry game, don’t be surprised if Ole Miss plays their best game of the season. They have lost four games in a row — but they have covered the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after losing four straight games. They outgained the Commodores last week by a decisive 578 to 387 yardage margin but somehow found a way to lose that game. But this team plays their opponents close — they are out-gaining their opponents by +50.5 net YPG while out-gaining their last three opponents by +78.4 net YPG despite losing all three contests. Now after playing their last two games on the road, Ole Miss returns home where they are outscoring their out-gaining their opponents by +79.6 net YPG. This Rebels offense can score points on anyone. They rank 5th in the nation by averaging 539.7 total YPG — and they score 41.8 PPG while generating 572.3 total YPG when playing on their home field. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has passed for 3831 yards this season while tossing 19 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. Ta’amu is second in the NFL by averaging 348.2 passing YPG — and he has a dynamic target in wide receiver A.J. Brown who has 1259 receiving yards this season. This duo makes Ole Miss a dangerous underdog — they have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 12 home games as an underdog getting 7.5 to 14 points. The Rebels have also covered the point spread in 13 of their last 22 games at home with the Total set int one 56.5 to 63 point range. Ole Miss has played their last two games Under the Total — but they have then covered the point spread in 23 of their last 40 games after playing their last two games Under the Total. And in their last 7 games played on a Thursday, the Rebels have covered the point spread in 5 of these games. Mississippi State may be due for a letdown after playing their best game of the season. That is not a good sign for a team that has failed to cover the point spread in 6 straight games after winning three of their last four games. And while the Bulldogs have covered the point spread in three of their last four games, they have then failed to cover the point spread in a decisive 29 of their last 44 games after covering the point spread in three of their last four games — and this includes failing to cover the point spread in five of these last six situations. Furthermore, Mississippi State has failed to cover the points spread in 6 of their last 9 games after a win over a conference rival. Don’t be surprised if turnovers play a role in this game. While the Bulldogs have not committed more than one turnover in four straight games, they have failed to cover the point spread in 10 of their last 13 games when not experiencing more than one turnover in four straight contests. They go back on the road where they are 1-3 this season while being outscored by -10.0 net PPG. The problem for this team away from home is they are scoring only 10.2 PPG away from home. The hope of first-year head coach Joe Moorhead was that he could establish a vertical passing attack for senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. Instead, Mississippi State is completing only 44.7% of their pass attempts on the road while averaging a mere 121.0 passing YPG which is 60 YPG below their season average. The Bulldogs have failed to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games on the road — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 road games against teams without a winning percentage higher than 50% at home. Furthermore, the Bulldogs are just 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 trips to OIe Miss in the Egg Bowl.

FINAL TAKE: Mississippi State does bring a great defense into this game — but they will be facing a confident Rebels team that returned 15 starters (including Ta’amu and Brown) who pulled a 31-28 upset on the road as 14-point underdogs last season. This is where the hiring of Moorhead from Penn State where he was offensive coordinator may be a negative since as an outsider he lacks an appreciation for this rivalry game. The underdog has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Expect Ole Miss to keep this game closer than expected. 25* CFB SEC Game of the Year with the Mississippi Rebels (114) plus the points versus the Mississippi State Bulldogs (113). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). THE SITUATION: Washington State (9-1) has won six straight games with their 31-7 win at Colorado last week as a 5.5-point favorite. Arizona (5-5) has won two straight games with their 42-34 win over that same Buffaloes team two Saturdays ago as a 3-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COUGARS MINUS THE POINTS: Washington State should continue to build off their momentum. They have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a victory by at least 20 points. The Cougars have also covered the point spread in 7 of their last 8 games after a straight-up win — and they have covered the point spread in 22 of their last 29 games after a point spread victory. Washington State returns home where they are a perfect 5-0 this season while outscoring their opponents by +18.0 PPG and out-gaining them by +189.0 net YPG. Led by quarterback Gardner Minshew, the Cougars lead the nation by averaging 392.3 passing YPG. He leads an offense that averages 473.4 total YPG when playing at home. But the improvement of this Washington State in the seventh year of head coach Mike Leach can be attributed to the play of their defense that is holding their visitors to just 16.2 PPG along with 284.4 total YPG. This strong defensive play helps explain why they have covered the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games at home. Arizona has covered the point spread in five of their last seven games — but they have failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 games after covering the point spread in five or six of their last seven contests. But the Wildcats look due for a big letdown now having to go back on the road where they are just 1-3 this season. Arizona is being outscored by -9.8 net PPG away from home — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games on the road. The Wildcats have also failed to cover the point spread in 9 of their last 10 road games after playing their last two games against fellow Pac-12 opponents — and they have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 9 games away from home after a game where at least 60 combined points were scored. And in their last 10 games played in the month of November, Arizona has failed to cover the point spread in 7 of these contests.

FINAL TAKE: Washington State needs to win this game to make their impending showdown with Washington next week being the deciding game as to which team will represent the Pac-12 North Division in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Cougars are unlikely to be looking ahead to that game as they will be motivated to avenge a 58-37 loss to the Wildcats last season. 25* CFB Pac-12 Game of the Year with the Washington State Cougars (378) minus the points versus Arizona Wildcats (377). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). THE SITUATION: Iowa State (6-3) has won five straight games with their 28-14 win over Baylor last week as a 17-point favorite. Texas (7-3) snapped their two-game losing streak last Saturday with their 41-34 win at Texas Tech as a 2-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Longhorns have played 11 of their last 15 games Under the Total after a straight-up win — and they have played 21 of their last 26 games Under the Total after a point spread victory. Quarterback Shane Ehlinger did pass for 312 yards in a winning effort last week — but Texas has played 8 of their last 10 games Under the Total after passing for at least 280 yards in their last contest. The Longhorns has also played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after gaining at least 40 points in their last game. And while Texas allowed 595 yards of offense to the Longhorns last week, they have then played 14 of their last 20 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last contest. Texas returns home to Austin to where they are allowing only 22.0 PPG. The Longhorns have played 12 of their last 17 games Under the Total at home — and the Under is also 19-6-1 in their last 26 home games against teams with a winning record on the road. Texas has also played a decisive 29 of their last 40 games Under the Total against teams with a winning record. Iowa State has played 10 of their last 11 games Under the Total after a straight-up win. The Cyclones won that game despite gaining only 357 yards of offense in that contest. They did surrender 505 yards to the Bears — but they have then played 10 of their last 13 games Under the Total after allowing at least 450 yards in their last game. Iowa State allows only 20.4 PPG which is 22nd best in the nation — and that number drops to just an 18.7 PPG make when they are playing on the road. But the Cyclones also only score 23.0 PPG on the road while generating a mere 311.2 total YPG. Iowa State has played 8 of their last 9 games Under the Total on the road.

FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 17-7 score in Ames last season with that Total set at 62. With this year’s battle back in Austin where these two teams have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total, expect another low scoring game. 25* CFB Big 12 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones (417) and the Texas Longhorns (418). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 3:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). THE SITUATION: Oklahoma State (5-5) has lost two straight games — as well as four of their last five games — with their 48-47 loss at Oklahoma last Saturday as a 21.5-point underdog. West Virginia (8-1) has won three straight games with their 47-10 win over TCU last week as a 13.5-point favorite.

REASONS TO TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS: Oklahoma State has bounced-back to cover the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after a straight-up loss. The Cowboys generated 640 yards in their loss to the Sooners — and they have covered the point spread in 6 of their last 8 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. This powerful Oklahoma State offense should keep them in this game against this Mountaineers team with a shaky defense. They return home after playing their last two games on the road where they are scoring 42.3 PPG along with averaging 512.7 total YPG — and this helps them out-gain their guests by +13.1 net PPG along with out-gaining them by +116.7 net YPG. The Cowboys have seen at least 66 combined points scored in each of their last three games — and they are very comfortable getting into shootouts with this Total in the mid-70s. Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 21 of their last 30 home games after playing at least two straight games where at least 60 combined points were scored. And while the Cowboys did not force a turnover last week, they have then covered the point spread in 16 of their last 20 home games after failing to force a turnover in their last game. And in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record, Oklahoma State has covered the point spread in 4 of these contests. West Virginia dominated a reeling Horned Frogs team last week as they out-gained them by +313 net yards by churning out 535 yards of offense while limiting them to just 222 yards. But not only have the Mountaineers failed to cover the point spread in 13 of their last 19 games after not allowing more than 275 yards in their last game — and they are also just 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games after gaining at least 450 yards in their last game. And while Dana Holgorsen’s team has covered the point spread in three straight games, his team is likely due for a letdown as they have failed to cover the point spread in 29 of their last 42 games after covering the point spread in three straight games. Now West Virginia goes back on the road where they are 3-1 this season — but they are being out-gained in yardage in those games because their defense is allowing 445.5 total YPG in those games. Pass defense is the biggest vulnerability of the Mountaineers as they rank 74th in the nation by allowing 233.2 passing YPG — and that mark rises to 269 passing YPG when they are playing on the road. Those are ominous defensive numbers when facing quarterback Taylor Cornelius who is leading an offense that ranks 10th in the FBS by averaging 317.6 passing YPG.

FINAL TAKE: This has been a disappointing season for Oklahoma State who returned twelve starters from a team that finished 10-3 last season. Three of their losses this year have been decided by just one possession total a mere 11 points. But the Cowboys should be motivated to pull off the upset in their last home game of the season. Expect Oklahoma State to keep this one close with a real shot of scoring the straight-up win. 25* CFB Big 12 Underdog of the Year with the Oklahoma State Cowboys (390) plus the points versus the West Virginia Mountaineers (389). Best of luck for us — Frank.