THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulated putting surfaces consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was -2.219 shots under par. Five of the last six winners had a score of 21 or more under par.

BEST BET: Ben Griffin (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Griffin (7138) versus Jason Day (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:49 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA John Deere Classic is on Ben Griffin who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. There may be no hotter golfer on the PGA Tour than Griffin is right now. He made it six straight top-14 finishes last week with his tie for 13th place at the PGA Rocket Classic in Detroit last week. He had four straight top tens before his last two events including a victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a tie for second place at the Memorial sandwiched by an eighth place at the PGA Championship and a tie for tenth place at the US Open. He has two first-place results in his last nine tournaments after winning the duos event at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans at the end of April. The strength of his game has always been his short game — he ranks 35th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. But what has transformed his game has been his speed training work with his driver. After being below average in his first three seasons with his driver, he has suddenly elevated to the top ten on the tour in his last four tournaments (before last week — didn’t update those numbers but no red flags) in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. At Oakmont at the US Open which was another long course, he ranked in the top five for the week in Driving Distance. He ranks tenth in the field this week in Good Drives Gained. In his last eight tournaments, he is gaining an incredible +10 shots-gained versus the field on average. He is a very confident golfer right now who has risen to 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total for the year (up from 15th in that category last week). Griffin was our Best Bet last week — and I was initially concerned about that being his eighth event in the last nine weeks — but he won the Charles Schwab playing his fifth week in a row before his second-place finish the next week at the Memorial in his sixth tournament in a row. He took the next week off prior to the US Open. Relatively, he is still OK, relatively, since this is just his fourth work week in a row — and he seems to be striking while the match is hot given his great momentum. He has gained in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in six straight tournaments. He leads the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Griffin is making his 23rd start in 2025 — but he ranks sixth in the FedEx standings. In his debut at this tournament last year, he finished in a tie for fifth place.

Griffin is linked with Jason Day in Round One head-to-head props. Day is playing fine golf right now — he comes off a fourth-place finish at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. But that’s the rub. Is he looking to win this event — or is this simply a warmup for the British Open in two weeks? This is a popular name for bettors who has not won on the PGA Tour in more than two years. He ranks 77th in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He returns to a course where he finished tied for 23rd place last year — but he had not played here since 2011 back when Barack Obama was gearing up his re-election campaign. So, it’s been awhile — and it’s reasonable that he is not here to win the non-signature event prize money as much as help get his game in order for the final major championship this year. Day ranks 140th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring this year — and Griffin ranks 17th in that metric. Take Griffin (7138) versus Day (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was -2.219 shots under par. Five of the last six winners had a score of 21 or more under par.

LONG SHOT: Bud Cauley (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Cauley (7127) versus Nico Echavarria (7128) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:05 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Bud Cauley who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Cauley comes off a tie for 25th place at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago — and he has registered four top-six finishes this year. He shapes up to compete to win this tournament. He ranks in the top 25 in the field in Good Drives Gained — and he is fourth in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He thrives on positional courses like this. He is top five in the field with his irons over the last six months — and he ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he is a solid putter who ranks 43rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has three top 20 finishes at this tournament in his seven trips here including an eighth place in 2016 — so he is very familiar with this terrain.

Cauley is linked with Nico Echavarria in Round One head-to-head props. Echavarria comes off a tie for sixth place in Detroit last week at the Rocket Classic. He had not finished better than 25th place in his previous seven tournaments. He does rank fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but he is not nearly as good a ball-striker. Echavarria ranks 70th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 146th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks 119th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has only played this tournament twice — he missed the cut one time and settled for 52nd place last year. Take Cauley (7127) versus Echavarria (7128) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick bluegrass rough of up to four inches. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The undulated putting surfaces consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Considered one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, the average score last year was -2.219 shots under par. Five of the last six winners had a score of 21 or more under par.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Denny McCarthy (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: McCarthy (7103) versus Si Woo Kim (7104) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:56 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Denny McCarthy who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. McCarthy comes off a tie for 12th place at PGA Travelers Championship which is a similar course as TPC Deere Run since it is often less than driver off-the-tee and a birdie-fest. The most challenging aspect of this course is the undulating greens that can punish the professionals not familiar with its idiosyncrasies. McCarthy is a world-class putter who ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he has played this course six times previously as a professional so he knows these greens. McCarthy ranks ninth in the field in Proximity from 100 to 150 yards away which is a critical metric for this shorter course this week. He also ranks 22nd on the tour in Scrambling from 30 yards or less. These skills have translated well at this course recently. McCarthy has finished in two sixth places and tied for seventh place in the last three years at this event while averaging +10 strokes gained versus the field in those three tournaments. He is the only player in the field who has registered two straight top tens at this event in the last two years. McCarthy is looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour — and there have been 11 first-time winners on the tour at this event since 2000 when it moved to TPC Deere Run.

McCarthy is linked with Si Woo Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim had to withdraw from the Travelers Championship two weeks ago due to a back injury which made him a big risk last week at the Rocket Classic in Detroit where he settled in 84th place. And now here he is playing for the fourth straight week despite this nagging back issue. For a shorter course that emphasizes the second shot, Kim is not a great fit when considering that he ranks 55th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is also really struggling with his putter where he ranks 142nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has lost 4 shots versus the field with his blade in three tournaments. Now Kim comes back to TPC Deere Run where he has missed the cut twice and withdrawn in his third visit to Silvis. Kim also ranks just 86th in Round One Scoring — and McCarthy ranks 27th in Round One Scoring this year. Take McCarthy (7103) versus Kim (7104) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the seventh straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track for the 156 professionals this week but they will also play on the South Course as well to complete the setup. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide tree-lined fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The 156 professionals will contend with 87 sand bunkers. One hole features a water hazard. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. The average winning score in the six previous editions in Detroit was -22.3 under par — and all six winners scored at least 18 under par.

BEST BET: Ben Griffin (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Griffin (7139) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:54 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Rocket Classic is on Ben Griffin who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. There may be no hotter golfer on the PGA Tour than Griffin is right now. He made it five straight top-14 finishes last week with his tie for 14th place at the PGA Travelers Championship. He had four straight top tens before last week including a victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge and a tie for second place at the Memorial sandwiched by an eighth place at the PGA Championship and a tie for tenth place at the US Open. He has two first-place results in his last eight tournaments after winning the duos event at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans at the end of April. The strength of his game has always been his short game — he ranks 35th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. But what has transformed his game has been his speed training work with his driver. After being below average in his first three seasons with his driver, he has suddenly elevated to the top ten on the tour in his last four tournaments in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. At Oakmont at the US Open which was another long course, he ranked in the top five for the week in Driving Distance. He ranks tenth in the field this week in Good Drives Gained. In his last eight tournaments, he is gaining an incredible +10 shots-gained versus the field on average. He leads the field this week on Shots-Gained: Total over his last 16 rounds and 36 rounds. He is a very confident golfer right now who has risen to 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total for the year. I was initially concerned about this being his eighth event in the last nine weeks — but he won the Charles Schwab playing his fifth week in a row before his second-place finish the next week at the Memorial in his sixth tournament in a row. He took the next week off prior to the US Open. Relatively, he is rested since this is just his third work week in a row — and he seems to be striking while the match is hot given his great momentum. He has made the cut in his two previous trips to the Detroit Golf Club with 31st and 33rd place results — but he is in the best form of his life right now.

Griffin is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Round One head-to-head props. Matsuyama is simply not in good form right now. His only top-12 finish this year was the season opener when he won the Sentry in early January. His best finish in his last five starts after missing the cut at the PGA Championship was a tie for 30th place at the Travelers Championship last week. He settled for a tie for 42nd place at the US Open earlier this month. The problem is his accuracy. He has never been long with his driver — but he ranks 116th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this year after finishing 33rd in the category in 2024. His ranking of 101st in Driving Distance will not help him this week on a long course where bombers have enjoyed past success. But the critical difference is that after ranking 15th in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, he has dropped to 35th in that category this year. Matsuyama is not a great putter either — the former Masters champion ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Putting which does not set him up for what shapes up to be another birdie fest. He has missed the cut in two of his four trips here which includes a withdrawal — and his best finish was a 13th place in 2020. Finally, Matsuyama ranks only 99th on the tour in Round One Scoring — and Griffin ranks 22nd in Round One Scoring this season. Take Griffin (7139) versus Matsuyama (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the seventh straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track for the 156 professionals this week but they will also play on the South Course as well to complete the setup. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide tree-lined fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The 156 professionals will contend with 87 sand bunkers. One hole features a water hazard. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. The average winning score in the six previous editions in Detroit was -22.3 under par — and all six winners scored at least 18 under par.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Cameron Young (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Young (7005) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:54 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Cameron Young who is listed at +2800 odds at DraftKings. We were on Young last week who shot 65 in the first round of the Travelers Championship — but he was over par in his next three rounds to finish tied for 52nd place. He had been in good form — and he is such a good fit for this course that he deserves a flier. He is long off-the-tee, good with his wedges, and is an elite putter — and Bryon DeChambeau, Tony Finau, and Cam Davis (twice) have won this tournament with a similar profile. Young had two straight ties for fourth place at the US Open at Oakmont and TPC Toronto at the RBC Canadian Open which were both similar long courses that rewarded long drivers. Young ranks ninth on the tour and first in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranks fourth in the field in putting from five to ten feet. He also ranks 17th on the tour in Driving Distance. This combination of skills helps him play well on courses that where low scores are needed to win. Young ranks 38th in Birdie or Better Percentage on the PGA Tour this season — and he ranks in 29th in Birdie Average. Young finished tied for second place here in 2022 before following that up with a tie for sixth place in 2024. He is 36-under par in those four rounds. This will be his third professional trip to the Detroit Golf Club.

Young is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Matsuyama is simply not in good form right now. His only top-12 finish this year was the season opener when he won the Sentry in early January. His best finish in his last five starts after missing the cut at the PGA Championship was a tie for 30th place at the Travelers Championship last week. He settled for a tie for 42nd place at the US Open earlier this month. The problem is his accuracy. He has never been long with his driver — but he ranks 116th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this year after finishing 33rd in the category in 2024. His ranking of 101st in Driving Distance will not help him this week on a long course where bombers have enjoyed past success. But the critical difference is that after ranking 15th in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, he has dropped to 35th in that category this year. Matsuyama is not a great putter either — the former Masters champion ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Putting which does not set him up for what shapes up to be another birdie fest. He has missed the cut in two of his four trips here which includes a withdrawal — and his best finish was a 13th place in 2020. Take Young (7005) versus Matsuyama (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest this week with the Rocket Mortgage Classic which is being hosted at the Detroit Golf Club for the seventh straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The North Course is the primary track for the 156 professionals this week but they will also play on the South Course as well to complete the setup. This course was designed by Donald Ross — it features wide tree-lined fairways and playable rough up to four inches of bluegrass. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The 156 professionals will contend with 87 sand bunkers. One hole features a water hazard. The putting surface is a Poa annua blend with Bentgrass that measures up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5150 square feet. Low scores are the norm that is considered one of the easier challenges on the PGA Tour. The average winning score in the six previous editions in Detroit was -22.3 under par — and all six winners scored at least 18 under par.

LONG SHOT: Keith Michell (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Mitchell (7127) versus Ryan Gerard (7128) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:10 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Keith Mitchell who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Mitchell returns to action after finishing in a tie for 27th place at the RBC Canadian Open earlier this month. He has two top-seven or better finishes in his last six tournaments after a tie for second place at the Corales Puntacana Championship in April before a seventh-place finish at the Truist Championship last month. Mitchell fits the profile of the professionals who can put up a low number at this course. He ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranks eighth in Driving Distance. He also ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in the field this week for those pros who also rank in the top half of the field in Shots-Gained: Total. Additionally, he ranks seventh in the field in Good Drives Gained — and he ranks fourth in Birdie or Better Percentage. This will be the third time playing this tournament but he has not yet made the weekend although last year was the first time he played here since 2019.

Mitchell is linked with Ryan Gerard in Round One head-to-head props. After a surprising tie for eighth place at the PGA Championship, Gerard has not finished better than 23rd in place in his last four tournaments including a tie for 54th place last week at the Travelers Championship. Gerard has never played the Detroit Golf Club as a professional. His game does not appear to be a great fit for this longer course. He ranks just 81st on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance which leads to him ranking only 49th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks 104th in Shots-Gained: Putting which is not a good sign for him competing in a birdie contest. He ranks just 90th on the tour in Birdie or Better Percentage. Gerard does rank 11th on the tour in Round One Scoring — but his course inexperience will not help him on Thursday. Mitchell, on the other hand, leads the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring. Take Mitchell (7127) versus Gerard (7128) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Pittsburgh up north to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2025 season with 72 professionals (63 of which competed at the US Open last week) will be playing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6844 yards, the course is the shortest track on the PGA Tour this year. The Kentucky bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are some of the smallest greens on the tour, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. The pros land their drives in the fairways almost 70% of the time at this course as compared to the 62% fairways hit average overall on the PGA Tour.

BEST BET: Xander Schauffele (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Schauffele (7156) versus Justin Thomas (7155) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Travelers Championship is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. It has been a slow start for Schauffele this season in a campaign derailed in the winter due to a rib injury. Since his return to action several months ago, Schauffele has struggled with his driver and his putter while adjusting to a new coach. But after a tie for 12th place at the US Open last week on the brutal course that is Oakmont, the two-time major champion winner last year may have regained his touch. He shot a one-under par 69 on Sunday — and he gained strokes versus the field in all four major categories which include Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Putting. He has still been steady with a high floor this season with seven straight results of 28th place or better. And Schauffele has remained elite with his irons since his return as he ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season. He also ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Approach from 150 to 175 yards which is a key metric this week on this short course. We may be catching Schauffele at just the right time at these odds since he has the gravitas to compete on Sunday with Scottie Scheffler and the other contenders. He has a great track record at TPC River Highlands. He won this tournament in 2022 — and he has also posted a 13th and 19th place in his last three trips here. In his last 20 rounds at this course, he has averaged a score of 66.19. He ranks in the top ten in the field this week in course history — and he is one of eight players in the field who have multiple top 15 finishes at this course.

Schauffele is linked with Justin Thomas in Round One head-to-head props. Thomas has now missed the cut in two of his last three events after failing to play on the weekend at the US Open last week. He is struggling with his irons — and he has now lost strokes versus the field in Approach-three-Green in three straight tournaments. Thomas may still rank 12th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — but those metrics are coming from his shorter wedges. He ranks 144th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 150 to 175 yards away — and he ranks 126th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards. Thomas also ranks 95th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has a nice course history here — but he is not in great form. Take Schauffele (7156) versus Thomas (7155) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Pittsburgh up north to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2025 season with 72 professionals (63 of which competed at the US Open last week) will be playing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6844 yards, the course is the shortest track on the PGA Tour this year. The Kentucky bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are some of the smallest greens on the tour, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. The pros land their drives in the fairways almost 70% of the time at this course as compared to the 62% fairways hit average overall on the PGA Tour.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Keegan Bradley (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Bradley (7013) versus Jordan Spieth (7014) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:35 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keegan Bradley who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Bradley followed up a tie for seventh place at the Memorial with a tie for 33rd place at the US Open. Bradley is the captain of the US Ryder Cup team but remains adamant he will not name himself to the team unless he qualifies outright — so he needs to perform well at tournaments like this to officially qualify for the team he will be overseeing. He is having a great year. He finished in a tie for sixth place at the PGA Sony Open in January before finishing in a tie for fifth place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then a tie for eighth place at the PGA Championship last month. He ranks 26th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 28th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 14th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He also ranks sixth in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 100 to 150 years from the pin. He won this event in 2023 — and after his tie for 39th place last year, he is the number one money-winner at this tournament. He is just one of eight in the field with multiple top 15 finishes at this event — and he ranks fifth in course history at TPC River Highlands overall. He is on the record indicating he always circles this tournament on his calendar after growing up in the northeast of Massachusetts and playing his collegiate golf at St. John’s.

Bradley is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Spieth followed up a tie for seventh place at the Memorial with a tie for 23rd place at the US Open last week. But Spieth’s value in the nostalgic betting market outstrips the deeper analytics. He is struggling with his irons as he ranks 54th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks even worse in his likely second shot distance at this course — he is 137th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards from the hole and 144th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 150 to 175 yards from the pin. He ranks 91st in Greens in Regulation — and he is just 76th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He did win this tournament in 2017 when he was in much better form (and I used to back him back then from time to time). In his last five trips to TPC River Highlands since that triumphant debut here, he has finished in 42nd place in 2018, missed the cut in 2019, finished in 54th place in 2020, missed the cut in 2022, and settled for 64th place last year. Take Bradley (7013) versus Spieth (7014) in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves from Pittsburgh up north to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. This event is the last designated event for the 2025 season with 72 professionals (63 of which competed at the US Open last week) will be playing for the elevated cash prizes at this no-cut event. This is a Pete Dye-designed Par 70 course. At only 6844 yards, the course is the shortest track on the PGA Tour this year. The Kentucky bluegrass rough is up to four inches in length. The fairways average 30 yards in width. The pros will contend with 69 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting five of the holes. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa annua with an average green size of only 5000 square feet that averages up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. These are some of the smallest greens on the tour, but that needs to be contextualized by this being one of the shorter courses as well which means the approach shots are closer on average. The course features 12 Par-4 holes and two Par-5 holes. The pros land their drives in the fairways almost 70% of the time at this course as compared to the 62% fairways hit average overall on the PGA Tour.

LONG SHOT: Cameron Young (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Young (7020) versus J.J. Spaun (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 10:05 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Cameron Young who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Young is in great form right now after following up his tie for fourth place at the RBC Canadian Open with a tie for fourth place at the US Open last week. Young is always reliable with his blade where he ranks 10th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. When he has his other clubs dialed-in, he becomes so intriguing at these big prices. He has two wins on the PGA Tour — and he has a tie for second at the British Open, a tie for third place at the PGA Championship, and a tie for ninth and seventh place at the Masters. In his last five tournaments, he also has a tie for seventh place at the Truist Championship. He finished in a tie for ninth place last year at this event which included a round of 59.

Young is linked with J.J. Spaun in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Even getting to some specifics, it is sound to fade Spaun after his victory tour when overcame a disastrous start on Round Four on Sunday by rebounding from the rain delay to then overcome everyone else who was imploding even more than his start. He deserves to celebrate winning his first major championship. But he is not a great fit for this course — even if he was fully focused. His approach game is good — but not necessarily for the most likely second shots this week on this shorter course. Spaun ranks 84th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards — and he ranks 99th in Shots-Gained: 150-175 yards. God bless Spaun for winning the US Open — but he missed the cut at the Memorial two weeks prior. Spaun has played this tournament six times — but he has only made the cut three times. His best finish was a tie for 30th place here — and he comes off a tie for the 47th place last year. Take Young (7020) versus Spaun (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Oakmont, Pennsylvania which is a few miles east of Pittsburgh at the Oakmont Country Club for the 125th US Open. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7372 yards. This will be the tenth time this golf course will host the US Open. In 2007, the average score was 75.705 with every hole seeing a field average above par. The last time the US Open was at Oakmont was in 2016 when the average score was 73.562 and the field beat par on average on four of the holes. This is considered one of the hardest courses in the world and the best score from a US Open champion here has never been better than five under par. Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner oversaw a major restoration of the course in 2023 with the goal being a return to the original vision of the founding fathers more than a century ago. The course is 156 yards longer than it was when it hosted the 2016 US Open. The two Par 5 holes are over 600 yards in length. The 156 golfers will not have to deal with any water or trees. The 168 sand bunkers are 42 fewer than the 2016 incarnation of this tournament. The difficult challenge facing the golfers begins with the five-inch rough that rests outside narrow fairways that average just 28 yards in width. The greens average 8500 square feet in size with many segmented by undulations. The Poa annua putting surface will surpass 14 feet on the stimpmeter (that is super fast). The top 60 golfers plus ties will make the cut for the weekend.

LONG SHOT: Sepp Straka (+5000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Straka (7163) versus Viktor Hovland (7164) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer who is outside the top ten favorites is on Sepp Straka who is listed at +5000 odds to win this event. Straka is just one of three pros this year to win more than one PGA Tour event along with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. Straka won the PGA American Express and then the Truist Championship last month. He comes off a third-place finish at the Memorial tournament where he led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Driving Accuracy. Straka ranks second on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total — so he offers great value at this price. Straka has elite accuracy with his driver and irons. He leads the tour in Greens Hit and ranks fifth in Proximity to the hole. He ranks third in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Straka also ranks sixth on the tour in Bogey Avoidance. He is also a great putter who can get hot with that stick. He ranks 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Furthermore, he has gained at least five strokes versus the field in putting in three of his last eight events (including two of his last three) — so he can get hot with his blade.

Straka is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. Hovland struggled early in the year with three straight missed cuts before breaking out with a win at the Valspar Challenge in March. He has made the cut in six straight events although a tie for 13th place at the RBC Heritage is his best showing since that victory. Hovland is playing great with his irons — but his driving may not be up to snuff this week. He ranks 84th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks 98th in Driving Distance and just 42nd in Driving Accuracy. He also continues to struggle with his short game as he ranks 158th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 121st in Shots-Gained: Putting. Hovland has missed the cut in two of the last three US Opens. He also ranks just 164th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring. Take Straka (7163) versus Hovland (7164) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Oakmont, Pennsylvania which is a few miles east of Pittsburgh at the Oakmont Country Club for the 125th US Open. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7372 yards. This will be the tenth time this golf course will host the US Open. In 2007, the average score was 75.705 with every hole seeing a field average above par. The last time the US Open was at Oakmont was in 2016 when the average score was 73.562 and the field beat par on average on four of the holes. This is considered one of the hardest courses in the world and the best score from a US Open champion here has never been better than five under par. Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner oversaw a major restoration of the course in 2023 with the goal being a return to the original vision of the founding fathers more than a century ago. The course is 156 yards longer than it was when it hosted the 2016 US Open. The two Par 5 holes are over 600 yards in length. The 156 golfers will not have to deal with any water or trees. The 168 sand bunkers are 42 fewer than the 2016 incarnation of this tournament. The difficult challenge facing the golfers begins with the five-inch rough that rests outside narrow fairways that average just 28 yards in width. The greens average 8500 square feet in size with many segmented by undulations. The Poa annua putting surface will surpass 14 feet on the stimpmeter (that is super fast). The top 60 golfers plus ties will make the cut for the weekend.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Jon Rahm (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7160) versus Scottie Scheffler (7159) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:14 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. There was a narrative gaining traction after the Masters that Rahm has taken a step back since winning a green jacket in 2023. After finishing in a tie for 14th place at Augusta National, he had only two results inside the top nine in the seven majors he played since that triumph. Golf pundits love to dog the LIV Tour since it is a safe way to express Islamaphobia (and I am no fan of tyrannical dictatorships nor regimes that assassinate journalists, I wish these golf “experts” would target their ire at some more even recent examples of those deplorable activities). The facts are that Rahm has finished in the top ten in 19 straight LIV tournaments. And after his tie for eighth place at the PGA Championship (where he was in contention with Scheffler on Sunday before imploding, he has been in the mix in the last four golf tournaments with the best players in the world competing including his tie for seventh place at the British Open last year before a tie for fifth place at the Men’s Olympic event. Rahm thrives on long tight tracks like this — and he won the US Open on a similar course at Torrey Pines. Rahm ranks second in the field in Total Driving. He is a strong short game with his scrambling and putting — and he gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Putting at both previous majors this year. He finished in a tie for 23rd place at Oakmont in the 2016 US Open as an amateur. Frankly, he is one of the few professionals on the tour with the mental game and discipline to compete with Scottie Scheffler on Sunday (despite his failure to do so at the PGA Championship).

Rahm is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. I don’t love confronting Scheffler in a head-to-head prop — but you should be able to get strokes with Rahm for Day One props. But after winning three of his last four PGA tournaments after taking the Memorial title two weeks ago, is Scheffler primed for a low score on Thursday this week? He did register a round of 61 on Thursday in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson last month in an event in Texas he was a heavy favorite to win, but he has not shot better than 68 in Round One since that event. Besides that, I don’t love Scheffler at this course that will reward distance off-the-tee. Scheffler ranks only 72nd in Driving Distance — and he is 120th in Total Driving Efficiency. At +275 at DraftKings, Scheffler is the shortest-priced favorite at a major championship since Tiger Woods at the 2009 PGA Championship. I think this is the time to fade — especially when paired against a veteran like Rahm as an underdog. Scheffler played this course as an amateur in 2016 and missed the cut. He has never won a US Open (but has come close) — but he finished tied for 41st at least year’s US Open which suggests the USGA test does not fit his ideal skill set. Take Rahm (7160) versus Scheffler (7159) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Oakmont, Pennsylvania which is a few miles east of Pittsburgh at the Oakmont Country Club for the 125th US Open. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7372 yards. This will be the tenth time this golf course will host the US Open. In 2007, the average score was 75.705 with every hole seeing a field average above par. The last time the US Open was at Oakmont was in 2016 when the average score was 73.562 and the field beat par on average on four of the holes. This is considered one of the hardest courses in the world and the best score from a US Open champion here has never been better than five under par. Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner oversaw a major restoration of the course in 2023 with the goal being a return to the original vision of the founding fathers more than a century ago. The course is 156 yards longer than it was when it hosted the 2016 US Open. The two Par 5 holes are over 600 yards in length. The 156 golfers will not have to deal with any water or trees. The 168 sand bunkers are 42 fewer than the 2016 incarnation of this tournament. The difficult challenge facing the golfers begins with the five-inch rough that rests outside narrow fairways that average just 28 yards in width. The greens average 8500 square feet in size with many segmented by undulations. The Poa annua putting surface will surpass 14 feet on the stimpmeter (that is super fast). The top 60 golfers plus ties will make the cut for the weekend.

BEST BET: Bryson DeChambeau (+750 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: DeChambeau (7111) versus Rory McIlroy (7112) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 7:29 AM ET.

Our Best Best to win the US Open is on Bryson DeChambeau who is listed at +750 odds at DraftKings. The USGA set up for this major championship consistently seeks to identify and reward the best driver in the field. This may be the reason why DeChambeau has been a two-time winner of the US Open over the last five years — including last year — as he is one of the best drivers off-the-tee in the world over the last decade. DeChambeau is Exhibit A that playing on the LIV Tour does not hurt one’s chances for success at the four major championships. He has finished in the top six or better in five of the last six majors including a tie for fifth place at the Masters earlier this year before a tie for second place last month at the PGA Championship. DeChambeau’s play at the PGA Championship was frustrating since he often was in perfect position after his long drive before flopping on his short wedge shot and then two-putting. His inability to register more birdies cost him against Scottie Scheffler in that event. But since escaping each hole with a par will be a significant accomplishment this week, if DeChambeau repeats that cycle, he will be in fine shape. And if he happens to be accurate off-the-tee this week, he could run away with the tournament like Dustin Johnson did in 2016. DeChambeau is an underrated putter — and he clearly is focusing almost all of his efforts on winning major championships. He also benefits from previous experience at Oakmont after finishing in a tie for 15th place at the 2016 US Open as a young professional.

DeChambeau is linked with Rory McIlroy in Round One head-to-head props. Since winning the Masters and securing his career grand slam, McIlroy has trended in the wrong direction. He settled for a tie for 47th place at the PGA Championship last month. Then last week in attempting to defend his RBC Canadian Open title, he missed the cut and lost more than 10 strokes versus the field in what was his second-worst performance in that metric in his career. He has been struggling with his driver since being forced to switch drivers at the PGA Championship after his preferred club failed a characteristic time test that exceeded the legal limit for its spring-like effect. McIlroy failed to hit 50% of his fairways last week — and this is the wrong course to try to rediscover your driving touch. Take DeChambeau (7111) versus McIlroy (7112) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the TPC Toronto in Caledon, Ontario, for the 114th RBC Canadian Open. This event takes place on the Osprey Valley’s North Course for the first time as the Canadian national championship rotates courses from year to year. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7389 yards with only two Par 5 holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 48 sand bunkers and water hazards on three of the holes. The bluegrass rough has been grown out to 3 3/4 inches. The fairways average 37 yards in width. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass/Poa annua mixture with the greens averaging 6500 square feet. The top 65 scorers plus ties will make the weekend cut.

BEST BET: Corey Conners (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7006) versus Ludvig Aberg (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:40 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the RBC Canadian Open is on Corey Conners who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings.Conners might be enjoying his best season on the PGA Tour as he currently ranks ninth in the FedEx standings. He has registered five top-eight finishes this year— and he has finished in the top 25 in eight last nine starts after finishing tied for 25th place at The Memorial last week. While Conners is not one of the biggest hitters off-the-tee, he makes up for that with elite accuracy with his driver as he ranks 13th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. This skill will come in handy this week given the thick rough and sand bunkers. He still ranks ninth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks in the top ten in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks 18th in Greens-In-Regulation. The Canadian would love to win his native country’s national championship — and he has three straight top 20 finishes at this tournament including two sixth-place results over that span.

Conners is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head results. Aberg is a golfer I thought I would be backing much more this year — especially when he rewarded my faith by winning the Genesis Invitational earlier this year. In theory, Aberg should be a good match for this course since he is one of the biggest bombers on the tour. In practice, Aberg is struggling with every other aspect of his game right now. He had missed three cuts in his last seven events since winning the Genesis before his tie for 16th place at The Memorial last week. I don’t think that was his breakthrough tournament since it was really just a hot fourth round on Sunday when he did not shoot a bogey for a round of 66 — but he entered the day +7 over par. That result was only his top-20 finish in his last eight PGA Tour events. He had lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in five of his last seven tournaments before that week (and I don’t have his Tee-to-Green numbers last week. His problem is that not much else is working outside his driver right now. Aberg ranks 100th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He is 119th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is 117th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is 39th in Shots-Gained: Putting. With the US Open on deck, he might be looking ahead and using this tournament to work on all the other clubs in his bag outside his driver. Take Conners (7006) versus Aberg (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the TPC Toronto in Caledon, Ontario, for the 114th RBC Canadian Open. This event takes place on the Osprey Valley’s North Course for the first time as the Canadian national championship rotates courses from year-to-year. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7389 yards with only to Par 5 holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 48 sand bunkers and water hazards on three of the holes. The bluegrass rough has been grown out to 3 3/4 inches. The fairways average 37 yards in width. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass/Poa annua mixture with the greens averaging 6500 square feet. The top 65 scorers plus ties will make the weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Keith Mitchell (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Mitchell (7113) versus MacKenzie Hughes (7114) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:29 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer who is listed outside the top ten favorites is on Keith Mitchell who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Mitchell was hot Tee-to-Green at the PGA Championship but still missed the cut at that major last month. He followed that up with a tie for 36th place at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. He has five top 20s in his last seven PGA Tour events — he was the first-round leader on three occasions which is nice support for this Round One bet. Mitchell is a great fit for this long course since he is one of the top 15 longest hitters on the tour — and he ranks seventh in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee on the PGA Tour. Over the last six months, he ranks fourth in the field in Shots-Gained: Total. Furthermore, in his last 36 rounds, he ranks in the top ten in the field in Shots-Gained: Total, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Ball-Striking, Driving Distance, and Course History. He has two top tens at the RBC Canadian Open in his last three events including a tie for seventh place.

Mitchell is linked with MacKenzie Hughes in Round One head-to-head props. Hughes comes off a tie for 39th place at The Memorial last week — but he has missed the cut in three of his last five PGA Tour events as well as four of his last nine tournaments. It’s feast or famine too often — and his ball-striking is not reliable enough to expect a big week. He ranks 138th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranks 117th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His best finish at this tournament was his seventh place last year — but he has also missed the cut on three other occasions in his eight appearances. He ranks 71st on the tour in Round One Scoring. Take Mitchell (7113) versus Hughes (7114) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up north to Canada at the TPC Toronto in Caledon, Ontario, for the 114th RBC Canadian Open. This event takes place on the Osprey Valley’s North Course for the first time as the Canadian national championship rotates courses from year-to-year. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7389 yards with only to Par 5 holes. The 156 professionals will contend with 48 sand bunkers and water hazards on three of the holes. The bluegrass rough has been grown out to 3 3/4 inches. The fairways average 37 yards in width. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass/Poa annua mixture with the greens averaging 6500 square feet. The top 65 scorers plus ties will make the weekend cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Taylor Pendrith (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7011) versus Sungjae Im (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 7:18 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed at +2800 odds at DraftKings. Pendrith followed up a tie for fifth place at the PGA Championship with a tie for 12th place at The Memorial last week. He led the field (including Scottie Scheffler) in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he was second in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. In his last two tournaments, he has gained almost 10 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green against what were stacked fields in both events. He has two top-five results in his last seven tournaments. He should be a great fit for this course — and the Canadian probably has more experience playing this course than anyone else in the field. He can handle the length of the course as he ranks second on the PGA Tour in Ball-Striking (Total Driving plus Greens-In-Regulation) and he ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks fifth on the tour in Fairways Hit and sixth in Greens-In-Regulation. He is one of the few golfers in the field this week who played this course as a professional as he competed in a 2019 event on the Canadian tour. He would love to win the Canadian national championship — and he comes off a tie for 21st place last year when he was not in as good of form as he is now. Pendrith did win at TPC Craig Ranch last year at the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson which is one of the courses most comparable to the challenge this week.

Pendrith is linked with Sungjae Im in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. After missing the cut at the PGA Tournament, Im bounced back with a tie for 16th place last week at The Memorial. He has still not gained strokes versus the field with his irons since the Masters. He ranks 173rd on the PGA Tour and 119th in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 153rd in Driving Distance — so he is going to have to rely on his long irons this week. This is his first time playing in the RBC Canadian Open since 2019 — and his priority is probably to prepare for the US Open next week. Take Pendrith (7011) versus Im (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. This is the fifth event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. It is the seventh signature event on the PGA Tour this year with the higher financial payouts. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7569 yards. The fairways are wide as they average 24 yards in width — but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. This event will be the first time since 2019 that the pros will not encounter a significant change to the course. The greens consistently rank in the top ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This event is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour — and it was the most difficult non-major tournament last year. Last year’s average score was 73.504 per round. Every professional within ten strokes of the lead will make the cut plus as well as the 50 lowest scorers after Round Two plus ties will play the weekend.

LONG SHOT: Sepp Straka (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Straka (7014) versus Si Woo Kim (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:10 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Sepp Straka who is listed at +4000 odds to win this tournament. Straka is one of just three golfers on the PGA Tour this season with multiple victories — and that is good company alongside Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy. He won the American Express in January before taking the Truist Championship earlier this month — and he should have a chip on his shoulder after missing the cut at the PGA Championship in his most recent start. He has ten top-15 finishes this year. His game should translate to this course this week. Straka ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks ninth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Driving Accuracy. He also ranks second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and second in Proximity to the Hole — and he leads the tour in Greens Hit. Straka also has a nice history of success at Nicklaus-designed courses. He won at the Nicklaus Club at Lions Gate on the Korn Ferry Tour early in his career — and his first win on the PGA Tour was at PGA National where Nicklaus renovated that course. At Muirfield Village, Straka finished in a tie for 16th place and then a tie for fifth place last year when he was in second place going into the final round.

Straka is linked with Si Woo Kim in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Kim comes off a tie for 28th place at the PGA Charles Schwab Challenge last week. He does have four top-20 finishes in his last six tournaments — but he has also missed the cut in three of his last eight events. He is not as good with his irons as Straka as he ranks 52nd on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks just 71st in Greens-In-Regulation and 118th in Shots-Gained: Putting which makes me worry about him this week. He has been consistent at this event with five top 18s or better in five trips — but I will take Straka’s superior form this spring. Take Straka (7014) versus Kim (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. This is the fifth event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. It is the seventh signature event on the PGA Tour this year with the higher financial payouts. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7569 yards. The fairways are wide as they average 24 yards in width — but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. This event will be the first time since 2019 that the pros will not encounter a significant change to the course. The greens consistently rank in the top ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This event is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour — and it was the most difficult non-major tournament last year. Last year’s average score was 73.504 per round. Every professional within ten strokes of the lead will make the cut plus as well as the 50 lowest scorers after Round Two plus ties will play the weekend.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7005) versus Patrick Cantlay (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:30 AM ET.

Our Best Bet on the golfer to win the Memorial is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Morikawa has two second-place finishes in 2025 at The Sentry and then the Arnold Palmer Invitational. His challenge has been to close out a weekend to win his seventh PGA Tour event — and he changed caddies in his move to Joe Greiner earlier this month. After a tie for 17th place at the PGA Truist Championship, he settled for a tie for 50th place at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. Morikawa remains one of the most accurate ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in fairways hit — and his second in Driving Accuracy. He also ranks sixth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Overall, he ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He returns to Muirfield Village where he won the Workday Charter Championship in 2020, He has also finished in second place at the Memorial in 2021 and last year. He remains one of the few golfers in the world who can look Scottie Scheffler in the eye and then beat him.

Morikawa is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has a great track record as a two-time winner of the Memorial — but after finishing in a tie for 30th place in 2023, he missed the cut last year. He struggled in 2024 and has played better this year including three top-ten finishes after his fourth place at the Truist Championship to begin the month. But Cantlay missed the cut at the PGA Championship two weeks ago. He is just a step behind Morikawa at almost all levels of his game right now. His iron play remains elite as he ranks 10th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — but both those marks trail Morikawa. He is struggling with his driver as he ranks 75th in Driving Distance and 76th in Driving Accuracy. Furthermore, his short game has hurt him as he ranks 80th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 83rd in Shots-Gained: Putting — and both those marks are behind where Morikawa ranks heading into the week. Take Morikawa (7005) versus Cantlay (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to “Jack’s Place” at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. Jack Nicklaus hosts this annual event on a course that he designed. This is the fifth event since the course underwent renovations after 2020 which added length on several holes. It is the seventh signature event on the PGA Tour this year with the higher financial payouts. The track is a Par 72 consisting of 7569 yards. The fairways are wide as they average 24 yards in width — but missing the short stuff results in trouble with bluegrass rough of four inches or more. The professionals will have to contend with 68 sand bunkers (the green sand traps are considered the most difficult on the PGA Tour) and water hazards that are in play for 13 of the holes. This event will be the first time since 2019 that the pros will not encounter a significant change to the course. The greens consistently rank in the top ten smallest putting surfaces on the PGA Tour in the 5000 square feet range. The Bentgrass putting surface measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. This event is considered one of the most difficult challenges on the PGA Tour — and it was the most difficult non-major tournament last year. Last year’s average score was 73.504 per round. Every professional within ten strokes of the lead will make the cut plus as well as the 50 lowest scorers after Round Two plus ties will play the weekend.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Viktor Hovland (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7128) versus Ludvig Aberg (7127) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:15 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +3000 to win this tournament. Hovland was “searching for answers” earlier in the year but he seems to have found his game — and he was in great spirits in his Tuesday press conference this week. The breakthrough seems to have taken place when he won the Valspar Championship in late March which began a streak of five straight cuts made on the PGA Tour. He comes off a tie for 28th place at the PGA Championship when he generated his best Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green numbers since winning the Valspar. In his last 24 rounds, he ranks fourth in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and top-three in Proximity to the Hole from 175-200 yards which is an important metric at this long course this week. For the year, he ranks eight in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and Shots-Gained: Total. He also ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards away and ranks 25th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 yards and beyond — so he should be able to handle the challenge to the long irons this week. The weakness of his game is his chipping the green — but the eye test (particularly two weeks ago at the PGA Championship) is that he is performing better and with more confidence in this area of his game. Hovland has made the cut in all five of his appearances at this tournament including a victory two years ago before a tie for 15th place last year.

Hovland is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Round One head-to-head props. Aberg is a golfer I thought I would be backing much more this year — especially when he rewarded my faith by winning the Genesis Invitational earlier this year. In theory, Aberg should be a good match for this course since he is one of the biggest bombers on the tour. In practice, Aberg is struggling with every other aspect of his game right now. He has missed three cuts in his last seven events since winning the Genesis — including two weeks ago at the PGA Championship in his last tournament. He only has one top-20 finish over that stretch. He has lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in five of his last seven tournaments. The problem Aberg faces is that this Nicklaus course not only tests the driver but all the other clubs in the bag. Aberg ranks 111th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He is 136th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is 124th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is 141st in Shots-Gained: Putting. He finished in a tie for fifth place last year in his debut at this tournament — but he was in much better form across the board with his clubs at this time last year. Take Hovland (7128) versus Aberg (7127) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7289 yards with two Par-5 holes. The course underwent a complete $20 million renovation before last year's tournament. Each hole has new yardage lengths as 80 total yards have been added from previous events. With tree-lined fairways, this course will still play as a shorter positional track. There are 84 sand bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The rough will be up to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways are narrow averaging 25 to 30 yards in width. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass on greens that were completely reworked for last year’s tournament and average 5000 square feet in size. There are 135 professionals competing this week (as of Monday) with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Aaron Rai (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rai (7119) versus MacKenzie Hughes (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:06 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on a golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Aaron Rai who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Rai comes off a tie for 19th at the PGA Championship last week where he finished in the top five in the field for Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His accuracy with his irons will help him this week given the narrow greens. Rai ranks 20th on the PGA Tour this year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he also ranks 21st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks fourth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Additionally, Rai leads the tour in Driving Accuracy and Fairways Hit — so he should thrive in putting himself in a position to get birdies (or pars) on this short course. Rai is in fine form with three straight top 25 finishes and seven top 25s this year. He has a good track record in the State of Texas where he has two 7th place finishes at the Houston Open as well as a fourth place earlier this year at the C.J. Cup Byron Nelson. He has made the cut in all three of his appearances here including a 12th place in 2023. He has played eight straight rounds of 71 or lower.

Rai is linked with MacKenzie Hughes in Round One head-to-head props. It has been feast or famine for Hughes who finished in second place at the Myrtle Beach Classic and third place at the RBC Heritage — but he has missed the cut in two of his last three events after missing the cut at the PGA Championship last week. The Canadian does not seem to be a good fit for this short course that demands accuracy. Hughes ranks 122nd in Driving Accuracy and 132nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He then ranks 90th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 127th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His best performance here was an eighth place — but he has missed the cut in three of his four other trips to this golf course as a professional. Hughes also ranks 122nd in Round One Scoring — and Rai ranks 23rd this year in Round One Scoring. Take Rai (7119) versus Hughes (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7289 yards with two Par-5 holes. The course underwent a complete $20 million renovation before last year's tournament. Each hole has new yardage lengths as 80 total yards have been added from previous events. With tree-lined fairways, this course will still play as a shorter positional track. There are 84 sand bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The rough will be up to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways are narrow averaging 25 to 30 yards in width. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass on greens that were completely reworked for last year’s tournament and average 5000 square feet in size. There are 135 professionals competing this week (as of Monday) with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend.

LONG SHOT: Brian Harman (+5500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Harman (7109) versus Robert MacIntyre (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:33 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Brian Harman who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Harman comes off a tie for 60th place at the PGA Championship last week — so he may have something to prove this week. It has been a great spring for the 2023 British Open champion. After winning the PGA Valero Texas Open last month, he followed that up with a tie for third place at the RBC Heritage a month ago — and Harbour Town is a good comparison course to the Colonial Country Club this week. Frankly, Quail Hollow was not a great fit for the lefty last week since he is not long off-the-tee. A short, positional course plays much better fits into Harman’s skill set this week. Harman ranks in the top 15 in the field this week in Shots Gained: Short courses, Shots Gained: Texas courses, and Ball-Striking in Windy Conditions. His accuracy off-the-tee and with short and middle irons has translated well in his 12 trips to this professional event where he made the cut 10 times. His best finish was a 7th place result in 2017 which was one of his three top 10s since 2012 — and he has seven 25s here overall here.

Harman is linked with Robert MacIntyre in Round One head-to-head props. MacIntyre comes off a tie for 47th place at PGA Championship last week. While he has four top 15s in 12 PGA starts this year, he has also missed the cut three times. He tends to do better at longer courses where he can take advantage of his length off-the-tee. The narrow fairways at Colonial present a challenge for him. The Bentgrass putting surface is somewhat unfamiliar for the Scotsman — and, as it is, he ranks just 140th in Shots-Gained: Putting this year. Tellingly, MacIntyre has played this course just once as a professional — and he missed the cut. Even worse, he ranks 105th in Round One Scoring in 2025 —Harman should have a big edge at this course that he knows so well when considering he ranks 59th on the PGA Tour in Round One Scoring. Take Harman (7109) versus MacIntyre (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Fort Worth, Texas at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par-70 tournament consisting of 7289 yards with two Par-5 holes. The course underwent a complete $20 million renovation before last year's tournament. Each hole has new yardage lengths as 80 total yards have been added from previous events. With tree-lined fairways, this course will still play as a shorter positional track. There are 84 sand bunkers and water comes into play on six of the holes. The rough will be up to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways are narrow averaging 25 to 30 yards in width. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass on greens that were completely reworked for last year’s tournament and average 5000 square feet in size. There are 135 professionals competing this week (as of Monday) with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend.

BEST BET: Daniel Berger (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Berger (7004) versus  (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:33 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Charles Schwab Challenge is on Daniel Berger who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Berger comes off a tie for 33rd place at the PGA Championship where he gained more than +4.0 Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee and another +4.0 in SG: Approach the Green. Berger has two top-three finishes this year amongst nine top-25 results. Berger’s accuracy, great iron play, and short-game make him a great fit for this short, positional course — and he is on fire with his putter right now. He ranks third in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his last 50 rounds. He also ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 17th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranks 8th in Shots-Gained: Total. He has made the cut in all five of his trips here headlined by a winning this event in 2020 amongst three top 25 results.

Berger is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Matsuyama missed the cut last week at the PGA Championship — and he lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has now missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments. The Colonial Country Club is a tough spot for him to regain his form given the narrow fairways — and he ranks 133rd in Driving Accuracy in 2025. He also ranks 120th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. This is just his second professional trip to this golf course — he finished 10th here previously but it was way back in 2014 so this looks like a week where he is trying to rediscover his game. Take Berger (7004) versus Matsuyama (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the 107th PGA Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This site has also been a traditional stop on the PGA Tour in May for the Wells Fargo Championship when not hosting a major championship. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7626 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 28 yards. The rough is up to 2 3/4 inches of overseeded ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. After rain earlier in the week, the course should be soft — and much different from the hard and fast conditions at the PGA Championship in 2017 when this major still took place in August. The forecast calls for the wind to pick up Friday afternoon and continue on Saturday. The 156 professionals competing this week will want to make the cut consisting of the top 70 scorers plus ties.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Viktor Hovland (+5000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hovland (7034) versus Jordan Spieth (7033) in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +5000 odds at DraftKings. Hovland is in the midst of a career-transition after moving on from Joe Mayo as his coach. After struggling earlier this year, he broke out by winning the PGA Valspar Championship in March. He followed that up with a tie for 21st at the Masters before a tie for 13th place at the RBC Heritage. He comes off a 54th place at the Truist Championship last week but we can give that a pass as his warmup for this week. Hovland ranks 17th in Longest Drives this year — so he can handle the distance at this course. He is one of the best irons players on the tour — and he ranks 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this year. His weakness has been when he misses the green on his approach shots — but he has been improving in that area since his victory at the Valspar Championship in March. He thrives at major championships and ranks in the top ten in the field in Strokes-Gained: Total in majors since 2020. His game fits how PGA Championships tend to challenge the professionals by emphasizing speed off the tee, long irons, and aggressive scoring potential. He finished in a tie for second place at the PGA Championship in 2023 before a third place finish last year despite being out of form and still in the midst of coaching chaos. He has played Quail Hollow three times with a tie for third place along with a tie for 24th place and a tie for 43rd place — so he has plenty of experience here with some elite results.

Hovland is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Spieth is playing better with three top-ten finishes after finishing in fourth place that the PGA C.J. Cup Byron Nelson to begin the month. But he has still not been great with his irons. He finished in 34th place at the Truist Championship last week when he lost nearly 5.0 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. For the season, he ranks 70th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Spieth has never been long off-the-tee — he ranks 54th this year in Driving Distance. He also ranks 85th in Driving Accuracy. Not surprisingly, his success at Quail Hollow has been sketchy. In four match play events, his best result was a 28th place at the 2017 PGA Championship along with a 29th, 32nd, and a missed cut at Wells Fargo Championship events. Take Hovland (7034) versus Spieth (7033) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the 107th PGA Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This site has also been a traditional stop on the PGA Tour in May for the Wells Fargo Championship when not hosting a major championship. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7626 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 28 yards. The rough is up to 2 3/4 inches of overseeded ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. After rain earlier in the week, the course should be soft — and much different from the hard and fast conditions at the PGA Championship in 2017 when this major still took place in August. The forecast calls for the wind to pick up Friday afternoon and continue on Saturday. The 156 professionals competing this week will want to make the cut consisting of the top 70 scorers plus ties.

LONG SHOT: Patrick Reed (+9000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Reed (7043) versus Daniel Berger (7044) in Tournament matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:25 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is with Patrick Reed who is listed at +9000 odds at DraftKings. Reed finished in a tie for third place at the Masters last month. He has since finished in a tie for 17th place at the LIV event in Mexico before a tie for fourth place at the LIV tournament in Korea. He will be plenty motivated to do well this week since he ranks 23rd in the Ryder Cup points leaderboard — and “Captain America” needs to get within the top six to qualify for the US Ryder Cup team as a rogue LIV Tour member. Reed is a grinder who is elite with his chipping and putting. He has a great track record at this event with a tie for second place in the 2017 PGA Championship at this course. He has made the cut in all eight of his professional events at Quail Hollow including an eighth place in 2017 and a sixth place in 2021.

Reed is linked with Daniel Berger in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Berger is playing better again with nine straight top 30s at PGA Tour events. But he is still has an underwhelming record at major championships with just two top-eights in his 26 major championships including six missed cuts. Berger is accurate — but he may not have the length to well at this course. He ranks 106th in Driving Distance — All Drives this season. His best finish at Quail Hollow was a 17th place amongst 28th, 54th, and 55th place finishes — and he missed the cut at the PGA Championship at this course in 2017. Take Reed (7043) versus Berger (7044) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina for the 107th PGA Championship. This golf resort hosted the 2017 PGA Championship as well as the 2022 President’s Cup. This site has also been a traditional stop on the PGA Tour in May for the Wells Fargo Championship when not hosting a major championship. This is a Par 71 tournament with three Par 5 holes. This course is one of the longest on the tour consisting of 7626 yards. Six of the Par 4 holes are at least 460 yards long. Just under 73% of the second shots on this course are from 150 yards or further away from the tee for the professionals. The fairways are wide with an average distance of 28 yards. The rough is up to 2 3/4 inches of overseeded ryegrass. Water hazards impact seven of the holes and there are 61 sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of new TIF Eagle Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivialis grass. The greens average 6578 square feet while reaching up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. After rain earlier in the week, the course should be soft — and much different from the hard and fast conditions at the PGA Championship in 2017 when this major still took place in August. The forecast calls for the wind to pick up Friday afternoon and continue on Saturday. The 156 professionals competing this week will want to make the cut consisting of the top 70 scorers plus ties.

BEST BET: Bryson DeChambeau (+950 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: DeChambeau (7178) versus Justin Thomas (7177) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:14 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Championship is on Bryson DeChambeau who is listed at +950 to win this event at DraftKings. DeChambeau has enjoyed the most success at the major championships of all the professionals on the LIV Tour. He has generated four top-six finishes in his last five major championships as well as three top-four results in his last four PGA Championships. Like Tiger Woods a generation ago, DeChambeau’s power can overwhelm the technical designs at US Opens and PGA Championship events. He finished in a tie for fifth place at the Masters last month with his iron play letting him down in Round Four on Sunday — and that is an area of his play he has probably obsessed about since. He is in great form with four straight tournaments when he began the final round in the last pairing — and he won his last event at the LIV event in Korea. His game is a great fit for this long course since he might be the longest driver of all professional golfers. He has gained more than 4.0 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee in four straight tournaments which includes the Masters. His natural draw as a right-handed driver fits the design of this course. Rory McIlroy has won at this course four times with a similar shot shape — yet Scottie Scheffler and McIlory are around half the price of DeChambeau this week at +425 and +500. DeChambeau is more reliable with his putting than both those public favorites. He has won two US Opens in his career — and now he returns to Quail Hollow Country Club where he has previously finished in a fourth and a tie for ninth place in previous professional visits.

DeChambeau is linked with Justin Thomas in Round One head-to-head props. Thomas did end a three-year drought by winning a PGA event at the RBC Heritage last month. He is putting better after a two-year slump with his blade. But he remains not a great fit for this long course since he is not as long off the tee as many of his competitors. Thomas ranks 106th on the PGA Tour this year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is just 51st in Driving Distance — and he also ranks 113th in Driving Accuracy which will present problems given these narrow fairways. Thomas did win the PGA Championship here in 2017 — but that event took place in August in much dryer and faster conditions than what the professionals will encounter this week. He won that tournament with a score of six-under par. McIlroy won last year’s Wells Fargo Championship here with a 17-under par score. Furthermore, DeChambeau is consistently excellent in opening rounds where he has finished in thtop fiveve after Round One in five straight events. He has also finished in the top six after Round One in 15 of his last 16 opening days at a major championship. Take DeChambeau (7178) versus Thomas (7177) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Flourton, Pennsylvania, for the Truist Championship at the Wissahickon course at the Philadelphia’s Cricket Club. The Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, usually hosts the PGA event on this weekend — but with that course being the location of the PGA Championship next week, the Philadelphia Cricket Club is stepping in with this one-off this year for the sixth signature event of the year. The oldest golf course in the country is a Par 70 consisting of 7119 yards. The 72 professionals will face 118 sand bunkers and six holes with water in play. The Greens consist of A1/A4 Bentgrass averaging 5779 square feet. Thunderstorms are expected for Thursday and Friday afternoons.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Russell Henley (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7143) versus Daniel Berger (7144) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:37 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer to win this tournament who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Russell Henley who is listed at +3000 odds. Henley is a great fit for this course since his lack of distance but supreme accuracy off-the-tee will be rewarded. He is in the best form of his career coming off a tie for eighth place at the RBC Heritage. Including his victory at Bay Hill which was another signature event this year, Henley has five top-ten finishes this year. Let’s discuss his skill set for this course. He ranks 12th in accuracy with his driver. He then leads the tour in proximity to the hole from 125 to 150 yards to the pin — and he ranks second in proximity from 100 to 125 yards to the hole. He ranks fourth in the field this week in true strokes gained in the last three months — sixth in that metric over the last six months. He is also a top-five bunker player since the beginning of 2024. More accolades: he ranks third in Greens-in-Regulation and 15th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks tenth in Bogey Avoidance — and he is 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Given the expected rain, avoiding the rough with clean fairways to greens shooting seems like the formula for success this week.

Henley is linked with Daniel Berger in Round One head-to-head props. Berger is having a fine season — his tie for third place at the RBC Heritage was his second top-ten finish this season. But he lags behind Henley in all the key metrics that will likely make the difference this week. He ranks 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 53rd in Greens-in-Regulation. He ranks 23rd in proximity which is great but not quite at the Henley levels. He is 50th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Furthermore, he ranks just 107th in Round One Scoring — and Henley is 18th in Round One Scoring this season. Take Henley (7143) versus Berger (7144) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Flourton, Pennsylvania, for the Truist Championship at the Wissahickon course at the Philadelphia’s Cricket Club. The Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, usually hosts the PGA event on this weekend — but with that course being the location of the PGA Championship next week, the Philadelphia Cricket Club is stepping in with this one-off this year for the sixth signature event of the year. The oldest golf course in the country is a Par 70 consisting of 7119 yards. The 72 professionals will face 118 sand bunkers and six holes with water in play. The Greens consist of A1/A4 Bentgrass averaging 5779 square feet. Thunderstorms are expected for Thursday and Friday afternoons.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7138) versus Rory McIlroy (7138) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:26 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Trust Championship is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa is in a bit of a slump having followed up a tie for 54th place at the PGA RBC Heritage with a missed cut at the team event at the Zurich Classic New Orleans two weeks ago. But Morikawa is not getting complacent — he sacked his long-time caddie J.J. Jakovac for Max Homa’s previous caddie Joe Greiner who recently was on the bag for Justin Thomas in his win at the RBC Heritage. Greiner’s decision to go with Morikawa is certainly a strong endorsement. Sometimes these professionals simply need a different voice talking them through a tournament — and it is not uncommon for the results to be immediate. We were on Morikawa for the Masters who settled for a tie for 13th place — but he did gain +2.2 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and another +5.4 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Each week on the tour presents a new challenge given the situation for the golfers and the characteristics of the golf course — and with Morikawa priced 3.5 times more than Rory McIlroy who is listed at +400, he simply offers much more value. At a short course like this which will privilege second shots with the irons, it’s great for Morikawa’s skill set. He is as good with his irons as anyone in the world right now. He is not as long off-the-tee as others — and he can struggle with his putter. Morikawa is playing at a consistently high level and looks due for a breakout. He had not finished worse than 17th place in six tournaments before these last two events (and I don’t care about team events) — and he has two second places in 2025. He finished in a tie for tenth place at THE PLAYERS Championship in March. He was then cruising on the way to victory at Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before Russell Henley holed a near-miracle chip shot in big rough to register an eagle on the 16th hole on Sunday to rally from a one-shot deficit to the eventual winning one-shot victory. Morikawa was unable to birdie one of the two remaining holes and settled for second place. He began the year with a second place at The Sentry followed up by a pair of ties for 17th place at Pebble Beach and then the Genesis Invitational. Morikawa ranks third on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — and he ranks third on the PGA Tour in both Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green.

Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Round One head-to-head matchups. This is McIlroy’s first tournament since winning the Masters — and I suspect his focus has not been grinding extra practice rounds since finally achieving his career grand slam. For McIlroy, this is his warm-up for the PGA Championship next week. And just don’t get me started about how many times McIlroy tried to give away the green jacket last month. At better odds, maybe. At 4:1, no way. More importantly, this short course does not play into McIlroy’s strengths. He leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and is third in Driving Distance. Those metrics are powered by his power with his driver when considering he ranks 162nd on the tour in Driving Accuracy. On a course where the 36-year-old has no advantage over his peers in course experience and his length off-the-tee is mitigated, this event simply does not play to his strengths. Morikawa comes in with much more motivation. Take Morikawa (7138) versus McIlroy (7137) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Flourton, Pennsylvania, for the Truist Championship at the Wissahickon course at the Philadelphia’s Cricket Club. The Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, usually hosts the PGA event on this weekend — but with that course being the location of the PGA Championship next week, the Philadelphia Cricket Club is stepping in with this one-off this year for the sixth signature event of the year. The oldest golf course in the country is a Par 70 consisting of 7119 yards. The 72 professionals will face 118 sand bunkers and six holes with water in play. The Greens consist of A1/A4 Bentgrass averaging 5779 square feet. Thunderstorms are expected for Thursday and Friday afternoons.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7141) versus Viktor Hovland (7141) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:26 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +3500 odds to win this tournament. Lowry followed up a tie for 18th place at the RBC Heritage with a tie for 12th place at the Zurich Classic teams event when he paired once again with Rory McIlroy. Lowry has been very consistent this season with three top tens amongst seven top 20s in 2025. His accuracy off-the-tee and precision with his irons make him a serious threat this week. He ranks ninth on the tour in Good Drives Gained. He is fourth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green.

Lowry is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. Hovland is playing better again after winning the Valspar Championship and coming off a tie for 13th place at the RBC Heritage. But despite his strong irons play, the short game required for this course does not feed into his strengths. Hovland ranks 173rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 115th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Those are not good numbers when considering he ranks 71st in Greens-in-Regulation. Given the lack of course experience for all the professionals here this week, I like deferring to a veteran like Lowry with plenty of experience on the European Tour. Take Lowry (7141) versus Hovland (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, outside Dallas for its fifth straight year on the tour now hosting the CJ Cup. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole three years by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This now Par 71 event at TPC Craig Ranch remains one of the easiest courses on the tour, particularly for Par 71 events. The scoring average last year was 68.497, down from 68.9132 in 2023. New tee boxes at the 5th, 8th, 10th, 11th, and 14th holes have added another 155 yards to this year’s tournament. This long track now consists of 7569 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to four inches. The fairways are overseeded ryegrass. There are 83 sand bunkers that the pros must contend with — and 13 of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6778 square feet. There are 156 golfers competing at the event with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend.

LONG SHOT: Jake Knapp (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Knapp (7142) versus Sam Burns (7141) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:55 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Jake Knapp who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Knapp finished in third place last week at the duos' event in New Orleans at the Zurich Classic — and he finished at a strong 12th place in March at THE PLAYERS Championship. He is one of the biggest drivers on the tour who has the longest drive this season at 444 yards. Overall, he ranks 34th in Driving Distance. He has produced six top-30 finishes in six of his last eight tournaments — and he has been played better with irons this spring. His accuracy with his driver can be an issue — but this is a very forgiving course given the wide fairways. When he can grip-it-and-rip-it, he can produce low scores. His round of 59 at the Cognizant Classic earlier this year remains the lowest score this season. He ranks 14th on the PGA Tour — and third in the field this week — in Birdies or Better Percentage. His 190 Birdies this season are the third most on the tour. In his debut at this tournament last season, he finished third for the week in Greens-In-Regulation en route to his eighth-place finish (after leading the way after 36 holes).

Knapp is linked with Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head props. Burns comes off a 13th place at the RBC Heritage — but has still missed the cut in three of his last three PGA tournaments. It is hard to trust the consistency of his iron play right now. He ranks 164th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 82nd in the Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks 101st in Bogey Avoidance this season — so he may not be in a position to survive a birdie fest. Burns finished in second place in his debut at this tournament in 2021 — but he missed the cut the next year and has not been back since before now. Take Knapp (7142) versus Burns (7005) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, outside Dallas for its fifth straight year on the tour now hosting the CJ Cup. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole three years by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This now Par 71 event at TPC Craig Ranch remains one of the easiest courses on the tour, particularly for Par 71 events. The scoring average last year was 68.497, down from 68.9132 in 2023. New tee boxes at the 5th, 8th, 10th, 11th, and 14th holes have added another 155 yards to this year’s tournament. This long track now consists of 7569 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to four inches. The fairways are overseeded ryegrass. There are 83 sand bunkers that the pros must contend with — and 13 of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6778 square feet. There are 156 golfers competing at the event with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Taylor Pendrith (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7006) versus Sam Burns (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:44 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Pendrith who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings. In a week when Scottie Scheffler is a massive underlay to win his first tournament of the year at just +280 before Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im are priced at +1800 and +2200 respectively despite their middling form both recently and in the last 12 months or so. Pendrith’s game is a great fit for this course since his below-average wedge play from inside 150 yards is not as significant a handicap given the length of this course. He ranks outside the top 132 on the tour in the 50-125, 100-125, and 125-150 yards in approach metrics this year. Since taking first place here last year, he has added seven more top-ten finishes including a tie for fifth place at the PGA Texas Children’s Houston Open a month ago. Pendrith ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-tee-Tee and 12th in Ball-Striking — and he ranks second in the field this week over his last 50 rounds in Ball-Striking. Additionally, Pendrith ranks 28th on the tour in Eagles Gained.

Pendrith is linked with Sam Burns in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Burns comes off a 13th place at the RBC Heritage — but has still missed the cut in three of his last three PGA tournaments. It is hard to trust the consistency of his iron play right now. He ranks 164th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 82nd in the Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks 101st in Bogey Avoidance this season — so he may not be in a position to survive a birdie fest. Burns finished in second place in his debut at this tournament in 2021 — but he missed the cut the next year and has not been back since before now. Take Pendrith (7006) versus Burns (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas, outside Dallas for its fifth straight year on the tour now hosting the CJ Cup. Previously a Par 72, the low scores prompted the organizers to shorten the distance on a Par 5 hole three years by 54 yards to make it a Par 4. This now Par 71 event at TPC Craig Ranch remains one of the easiest courses on the tour, particularly for Par 71 events. The scoring average last year was 68.497, down from 68.9132 in 2023. New tee boxes at the 5th, 8th, 10th, 11th, and 14th holes have added another 155 yards to this year’s tournament. This long track now consists of 7569 yards with wide fairways that average 36.4 yards. The rough consists of Bermuda grass of up to four inches. The fairways are overseeded ryegrass. There are 83 sand bunkers that the pros must contend with — and 13 of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface is Bentgrass greens that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter with the greens averaging 6778 square feet. There are 156 golfers competing at the event with the top 65 scorers plus ties making the cut for the weekend.

BEST BET: Si Woo Kim (+1100 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kim (7137) versus Taylor Pendrith (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:33 PM ET. (and to confirm that this prop bet targets our Top Overlay golfer -- I explain this in the Report. I like Pendrith this week, but I like Kim even more -- especially for Round One).

Our Best Best is on Si Woo Kim to win the C.J. Cupp Byron Nelson who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Kim is a good ball-striker who thrives in birdie tests when his putter is working for him. In his last solo start two weeks ago, he gained more than three strokes versus the field en route to finishing in a tie for eighth place at the PGA RGC Heritage. He did miss the cut last week in the duos' event in New Orleans — but that should leave him rested with a chip on his shoulder for this event. The local Dallas resident finished in a tie for second place in his professional debut at this course before posting a tie for 13th place last year. He has averaged 66.125 per round and never shot worse than 68 in his eight rounds here. Kim ranks 30th on the PGA Tour this year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 26th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and when considering that this is a relatively weak field with Scottie Scheffler the definitive favorite at +280 (that’s an underlay price) before the drop off to Jordan Spieth and Sungjae Im who have been in questionable form, those rankings are even better this week. Kim ranks third in Par-5 Scoring. He also ranks 10th in Birdies or Better Percentage and sixth in Birdie Average. He has the game to win in a low-scoring affair in what would be his fifth career PGA Tour title.

Kim is linked with Taylor Pendrith in Round One head-to-head props. I like Pendrith this week — and he is our Top Overlay Bet. It is very rare that I target a golfer who I also am endorsing. A few thoughts on that. First, these are value propositions — I can like Pendrith at +3000 while still preferring Kim in a head-to-head prop. The books do not offer a bevy of head-to-head betting options (especially ones at the most common sites that clients can reasonably be able to access). My biggest concern about Pendrith is that he is a slow starter. He ranks 116th on the PGA Tour this year in Round One Scoring before improving his standing in each round before peaking with his rank of 16th in Round Fours. When considering that he is the defending champion after winning this tournament last year, the pressure of defending the title may be at its strongest on Thursday. Take Kim (7137) versus Pendrith (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help the 72 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Two years, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts all 18 holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 56 professionals who competed at the Masters last week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Ludvig Aberg (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7145) versus Xander Schauffele (7146) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:30 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. I was off the Aberg bandwagon after he missed two straight cuts at THE PLAYERS Championship and the PGA Valero Texas Open — but he had a great week in Augusta last week with his seventh-place finish. Aberg is already one of the longest drivers on the tour which will not help him this week. But he brings many other special talents to his game. This is a thinking golfer’s course — and his second-place and seventh-place results in his two Masters tournaments demonstrate he can thrive under those circumstances. We need to take Aberg’s underlying metrics with a grain of salt since he did go through a stretch when he posted bad numbers while playing through an illness. But he still ranks eighth on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 yards or less which is where he should be living this week. We were on Aberg when he won the PGA Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines earlier this season. As I wrote for that report, Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — as he proved at Torrey Pines. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He began this season by finishing in fifth place at the stacked field at The Sentry which kicked off the 2025 season in Hawai’i. In his debut at this tournament last year, he finished in a tie for tenth place.

Aberg is linked with Xander Schauffele in Round One head-to-head props. Schauffele is another professional whose metrics this season need to be taken with a grain of salt since he was struggling to recover from an injury. But he looks all the way back after following up his tie for 12th place at the Valspar Challenge with a tie for eighth place at the Masters. Admittedly, he has been money with his irons. But one of his weaknesses is his accuracy off-the-tee which is a must-have skill set this week. Even in his breakthrough season last year when he won two major championships, he ranked 95th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. His results are mixed at this event despite making the cut in all six trips. He did finish in fourth place two years ago before following that up with a tie for 18th place last year. But his other three visits resulted in a 64th place, a 63rd place, and a 32nd place. Finally, Schauffele ranks 176th on the tour this year in Round Scoring Average — and he shot over par on Thursday for the Masters last week despite his improved form. Take Aberg (7145) versus Schauffele (7146) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help the 72 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Two years, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts all 18 holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 56 professionals who competed at the Masters last week.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1100 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7002) versus Scottie Scheffler (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props  (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 10:15 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA RBC Heritage is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. We were on Morikawa last week who settled for a tie for 13th place — but he did gain +2.2 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and another +5.4 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Each week on the tour presents a new challenge given the situation for the golfers and the characteristics of the golf course — and with Morikawa priced about three times more than Scottie Scheffler who is listed at +360, he simply offers much more value. The Harbour Town Golf Links is perhaps an ideal fit for Morikawa’s skill set. He is as good with his irons as anyone in the world right now. He is not as long off-the-tee as others — and he can struggle with his putter. But this Dye-designed course mitigates the importance of those factors given the shorter course featuring so many doglegs along with the tiny putting surfaces that privilege getting on the green over making long putts. Morikawa is playing at a consistently high level and looks due for a breakout. He has not finished worse than 17th place in his six tournaments — and he has two-second places. He finished in a tie for tenth place at THE PLAYERS Championship last month. The week before, he was cruising on the way to victory at Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before Russell Henley holed a near-miracle chip shot in big rough to register an eagle on the 16th hole on Sunday to rally from a one-shot deficit to the eventual winning one-shot victory. Morikawa was unable to birdie one of the two remaining holes and settled for second place. He began the year with a second place at The Sentry followed up by a pair of ties for 17th place at Pebble Beach and then the Genesis Invitational. Morikawa ranks second on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — and he leads the PGA Tour in both Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His putting has been an Achilles’ heel in the past — but he ranks 59th in Shots-Gained: Putting so far this season. Morikawa has already claimed a British Open and a PGA Championship at major championship events. He has made the cut in all five of his previous trips to this tournament including a seventh and ninth-place finish.

Morikawa is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Scheffler has not won a tournament since he suffered his hand injury to begin the year. He finished in second place last week at the Masters (after several of the professionals ahead of him to begin the day had miserable back nines on Sunday). But it is very troubling that Scheffler has lost strokes versus the field off-the-tee in three of his last four events. Given the narrow fairways, multiple hazards, and the small greens, this is not the week to miss the short stuff with your driver. Too many of his shots off-the-tee are hooking left. Scheffler ranks a pedestrian 53rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. After ranking third on the PGA Tour last year in Greens In Regulation, he had dropped to 22nd in that metric this season. Scheffler did win this tournament last year — but that adds the burden of defending that title with the challenge and responsibilities that come with that accomplishment. He simply is not in the same form as he was at this time last year when he was coming off winning his second Masters tournament. Take Morikawa (7002) versus Scheffler (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the 1.5 strokes if available and proceed no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves up the Atlantic Ocean coastline from Augusta National to Hilton Head in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This a Par 71 event consisting of 7213 yards with just three Par 5 holes. This a Pete Dye and Jack Nicklaus-designed course where distance off the tee will not help the 72 professionals this week. The fairways are lined by trees so accuracy off the tee is at a premium. Precision off the tee to set up Approach shots is more important than getting a few yards closer to the tee. Two years, the average drive was only 278.6 yards which was -12.9 fewer yards off-the-tee than the PGA Tour average. The pros will contend with 54 bunkers and water that impacts all 18 holes. The greens consist of Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa Trivilialis that will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. With the average putting surface of the greens being at 3700 square feet, Harbour Town presents the second smallest greens on the PGA Tour. This is the fifth of eight designated events on the PGA Tour this season with a heightened purse. The field features 56 professionals who competed at the Masters last week.

LONG SHOT: Sepp Straka (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Straka (7109) versus Akshay Bhatia (7026) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:00 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer who is listed outside the top ten favorites is on Sepp Straka who is listed at +4000 odds to win this event. Straka had finished in the top 15 in seven of ten events on the PGA Tour this season before missing the cut last week at the Masters. He struggled on Thursday with a six-over-par round of 78 — but it is encouraging he shot under par on Friday before getting the weekend off. With a few more days of rest and now plenty of motivation to redeem himself, he should come out firing on Thursday. He still ranks second in the FedEx standings this year. He has gained at least +1.0 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in 13 of his last 14 tournaments — and for comparison's sake, Scottie Scheffler can only claim to have accomplished that feat in 11 of his last 14 tournaments. Straka ranks second in the field (to Scheffler) with his iron play in his last 50 rounds. His skill set is great for this shorter course that rewards shot-shaping. Straka ranks 13th on the tour in Fairways Hit. He ranks second in Proximity to the Hole — and he ranks third in Greens In Regulation. He ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and sixth in Shots-Gained: Tee to Green. In his five trips to Harbour Town, he has registered third and fifth-place finishes. He won the PGA American Express earlier this year which was another shorter Pete Dye-designed course.

Straka is linked with Akshay Bhatia in Round One head-to-head props. Bhatia comes off a tie for 42nd place at the Masters last week. He did finish third at THE PLAYERS Championship last month — but that was sandwiched by missed cuts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then the Valero Texas Open. He has been inconsistent this season — and I don’t think he is a great fit for this course. He ranks eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but the small greens neutralize that advantage since more of his putts on other courses will require chipping off the green this week given his proximity to the hole rates (he ranks 53rd in that metric). Bhatia ranks 48th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — but even more worrisome is his ranking of 72nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Even more troubling is that this will be Bhatia’s professional debut at the Harbour Tour Golf Links which usually sees seasoned veterans finish in first place. Take Straka (7109) versus Bhatia (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. After the course was ten yards longer, given changes at the Par-5 second hole, the length of the course is unchanged this year — however, a hurricane required the removal of some trees so the look and feel of some holes will be different this time around. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.906 which was almost a stroke higher than the 72.960 average in 2023 — and it was the second-highest average round in the last four editions. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. There are 44 sand bunkers on the course and water impacts five of the holes. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 90 professionals including 12 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather is not expected to play a significant role in this event.

BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+1300 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7007) versus Bryson DeChambeau (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:23 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the Masters is Jon Rahm who is listed at +1300 at DraftKings. Scottie Scheffler gets most of the attention in the United States, but Rahm may still be the very best player in the world —  and he should be very motivated to make a statement this year after a subpar 2024 campaign. Rahm was off for the first half of the year. His defense of his 2023 Masters title was a flop as he settled in a tie for 45th place. The burdens of being the reigning champion for the week along with the light schedule on the LIV Tour might have led to some complacency. He then pulled out of the US Open after suffering a foot injury in practice. He did regain his form as the summer came to a close. The week before the British Open, he finished in 10th place at the LIV Tour event in Spain while leading the field that week in Greens-In-Regulation. Then despite being stuck in the brutal Thursday AM/Friday PM swing at the British Open that ruined most of the scores for the professionals, Rahm battled the terrible weather and finished a very impressive tie for seventh place. He followed that up last week by winning the LIV Tour event in London. He then had the lead on the final day of Mens Golf event at the Olympics in Paris in early August before a disastrous back nine caused him to settle for fifth place. He should be angry about that one (I know I am after getting reminded about it). But Rahm has won us much more money in his career, so he is forgiven. Rahm has 11 first places on the PGA Tour including two majors with the 2021 US Open and the 2024 Masters (and were on him for both those wins before jumping off the bandwagon for last year’s Masters). He has been disappointed with his results at major championships since moving to the LIV Tour — and I suspect he plans on using 2025 to rectify this situation. While I was initially skeptical, plenty of the professionals on the LIV Tour have thrived at the four major championships. With the development of the Signature Events on the PGA Tour to compete with the financial rewards of the LIV Tour, the LIV pros may be at an advantage since their tournament schedule is more spaced out and consists of only 54 holes. Rahm has finished in the top ten in every one of the LIV Tour events this year. He may be the best driver in the world — and his iron play is elite. It was the improvement in his short game which helped him win his first two major championships. Scheffler remains very good —but the fanfare and additional responsibilities of being the defending champion add a burden. Scheffler’s price is +400 — so getting Rahm at more than three times that amount is very enticing. Rahm has registered four top ten finished at Augusta National in his seven professional trips.

Rahm is linked with Bryson DeChambeau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. DeChambeau enjoyed his best finish at the Masters last year with his tie for sixth place. He had missed the cut the previous two years at Augusta National — and he had not finished better than a tie for 21st place in his previous six trips before last year. But a closer look at his scorecard last year reveals that he finished over par in three of his four rounds with his seven-under-par on Thursday helped by wet conditions that softened the course. Augusta National is going to be a difficult track for DeChambeau for several reasons. His desire to just bomb away is often stymied by the many obstacles on the course. Shop-shaping and strategy are rewarded. The prohibition of green books also frustrates his desire to deploy analytics to find small advantages versus his peers. DeChambeau has only played one round of golf under par in his l last ten rounds at the Masters. He can also struggle with his short game — as he did last week at a much easier course on the LIV Tour — which is not a good sign coming into this event. Take Rahm versus DeChambeau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. After the course was ten yards longer, given changes at the Par-5 second hole, the length of the course is unchanged this year — however, a hurricane required the removal of some trees so the look and feel of some holes will be different this time around. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.906 which was almost a stroke higher than the 72.960 average in 2023 — and it was the second-highest average round in the last four editions. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. There are 44 sand bunkers on the course and water impacts five of the holes. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 90 professionals including 12 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather is not expected to play a significant role in this event.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7025) versus Russell Henley (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:43 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet to win the Masters is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Lowry is in great form this season after coming off a tie for eighth place at the PGA Valspar Challenge three weeks ago. He has four top 11 finishes in his last six PGA events this year including a second place at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He remains one of the best ball-strikers in the world. He ranks fifth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he ranks sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks fifth in the field this week in that metric in the last three years at this tournament. This metric is a critical leading indicator this week as the last four green jacket winners finished in the top two for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Lowry has finished in the top 12 in 12 of his last 15 events worldwide including an impressive third place in the DP World Tour Championship. Lowry had seven top-nine finishes on the PGA Tour last season including a pair of sixth-place results at the PGA Championship and the British Open. Lowry had made the cut at the Masters in his last five trips here headlined by a third place in 2022. He is lurking to put it all together. In 2022, he led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranked fourth in both Shots-Gained: Putting and Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Last year, he led the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and was fourth in Ball-Striking but lost -7.8 strokes versus the field with putter which was his worst putting numbers in his 178 PGA events in his career. Lowry is no stranger to the big stage — he has won a British Open and finished second at the US Open previously.

Lowry is linked with Russell Henley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Henley may be enjoying his best season on the PGA Tour as his improved short game has helped complement his accuracy off the tee and with his irons. I just worry about how high his ceiling is when playing against the best players in the world. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year before settling for a tie for 30th place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He ranks 16th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 22nd in Shots Gained: Approach the Green which are good but not elite numbers. His biggest weakness is his length off the tee. Henley ranks 174th on the tour in Driving Distance -- and that is why he ranks 97th in Shots-Gained: Off-tee-Tee. He can also struggle with his putter in clutch situations. His best finish at a major championship was at the Masters two years ago — but he followed that up with a 38th place last year. He is playing better at the recent major championships but lacks that final gear that pros like Lowry possess. Take Lowry (7025) versus Henley (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with the Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7555 yards. After the course was ten yards longer, given changes at the Par-5 second hole, the length of the course is unchanged this year — however, a hurricane required the removal of some trees so the look and feel of some holes will be different this time around. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.906 which was almost a stroke higher than the 72.960 average in 2023 — and it was the second-highest average round in the last four editions. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The fairways average 50 yards in width. There is no rough with the professionals having to contend with a first cut if they miss the fairway before dealing with pine straw. There are 44 sand bunkers on the course and water impacts five of the holes. Nine of the ten Par-4s are at least 440 yards in length with three of those holes consisting of at least 490 yards. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet measuring up to 14 feet on the stimpmeter, which is the fastest on the PGA Tour. The tournament features 90 professionals including 12 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players plus ties will make the weekend cut. Weather is not expected to play a significant role in this event.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+1700 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Rory McIlroy (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:47 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value at their price to win the Masters is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1700 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa may be playing the best golf on the PGA Tour this season. He has not finished worse than 17th place in his five tournaments — and he has two-second places. He comes off a tie for tenth place at THE PLAYERS Championship last month. The week before, he was cruising on the way to victory at Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before Russell Henley holed a near-miracle chip shot in big rough to register an eagle on the 16th hole on Sunday to rally from a one-shot deficit to the eventual winning one-shot victory. Morikawa was unable to birdie one of the two remaining holes and settled for second place. That setback should leave him ornery to get the win at the first major championship of 2025 — and he is way overdue. His results have been consistently good with a second place at The Sentry followed up by a pair of ties for 17th place at Pebble Beach and then the Genesis Invitational. Morikawa ranks second on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — so it is hard to jump off the bandwagon when priced more than four times the return that Scottie Scheffler is at +400. His putting has been an Achilles’ heel in the past — but he ranks 59th in Shots-Gained: Putting so far this season. He leads the PGA Tour in both Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He leads the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for his last 50 rounds — and this metric is a critical leading indicator this week. The last four green jacket winners finished in the top two for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. He has seven top-four finishes since playing the Masters last year. He has made the cut in all four of his previous trips to Augusta National including three straight top-ten finishes after his third place last year. As he gains more experience at this tournament, his putting on these greens continues to improve. Morikawa has already claimed a British Open and a PGA Championship at major championship events.

Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McIlroy comes off a fifth-place finish at the Texas Children’s Houston Open. He has two first-place results this year at Pebble Beach and THE PLAYERS Championship. The fan favorite is priced at just +650 this week despite the fact that he has not won a major championship since 2014 in a span of 36 straight majors without a win. He has had some close calls, but the muffed shots on Sunday have been more consistent than championship-level play when the lights have been brightest. The Masters remains the one major championship he has yet to win. After a heartbreaking second place at Augusta National in 2022, he missed the cut the next year before settling for 22nd place last year. While his driving has been excellent, he has been a bit off with his iron play as he ranks just 19th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranked eighth in that category two years ago before dropping to 52nd last year. At 35 years old, it’s McIlroy’s mental game I worry most about. There is no hiding from the top dogs if you want to invest in a player as good as Morikawa in head-to-head props. Take Morikawa (7006) versus McIlroy (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week for the 15th straight year. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year — but playing at the altitude of 1100 square feet mitigates how the course plays in terms of distance. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, wind is expected in the 15 miles per hour range all week. The first layer of rye grass rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as six inches. The fairways are 25 to 30 yards in width. The 64 sand bunkers impact all but one of the 18 holes, which are consistently rated as the top ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. Water comes into play on three of the holes. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification for the Masters at Augusta National next week.

BEST BET: Corey Conners (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7142) versus Ludvig Aberg (7141) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:14 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Valero Texas Open is on Corey Conners who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Conners combine great recent form along with the Horse for the Course resume this week. He has finished in the top eight in three straight PGA events with a 3rd place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational followed up by a tie for 6th place at THE PLAYERS Championship, and then a tie for eighth place two weeks ago at the Valspar Challenge. Overall, Conners has made the cut in seven of his eight PGA events in 2025 with four top-eight finishes. He ranks 20th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, with many of the professionals ahead of him taking this week off before the Masters next week. He also ranks 21st in Driving Accuracy — and this helps him rank 18th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation. Conners also leads the tour in Scrambling within 30 yards — so he is well-versed in getting up-and-down if he does miss the green. He won this event in 2019 and followed that up with another title in 2023, amongst four top 25s overall at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio.

Conners is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Round One head-to-head props. I am very bullish on Aberg in the long run — and he rewarded our faith by winning the PGA Genesis Invitational earlier this year. But he has not been in great form since that triumph. He missed the cut in his last start at THE PLAYERS Championship. He has not finished better than a tie for 22nd place in four of his last five PGA events. His ball-striking has been off. He has lost more than 2.0 strokes versus in Approach-the-Green in three of his last four tournaments — and he has lost strokes in two straight events in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Aberg ranks 99th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He is very good at dealing with sand bunkers, but he can get in trouble when he misses the green as he ranks 142nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. His chipping is a weakness as he ranks 131st in Scrambling, which is not a good sign given his current form with his horns. He did finish in a tie for 14th place in his professional debut here last year — but he still lacks the course experience that Conners will enjoy on Thursday. Take Conners (7142) versus Aberg (7141) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week for the 15th straight year. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year — but playing at the altitude of 1100 square feet mitigates how the course plays in terms of distance. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, wind is expected in the 15 miles per hour range all week. The first layer of rye grass rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as six inches. The fairways are of 25 to 30 yards in width. The 64 sand bunkers impact all but one of the 18 holes which are consistently rated as the top ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. Water comes into play on the three of the holes. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Keegan Bradley (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Bradley (7137) versus Maverick McNealy (7138) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:03 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keegan Bradley who is listed at +2500 odds to win this tournament. Bradley is in great form — and the Ryder Cup captain in the fall has the extra motivation to register some victories on the tour to justify his spot as one of the competitors on that team. He comes off a tie for 20th place at THE PLAYERS Championship, which is his fifth top 20 result while making the cut in all seven of his events in 2025. He finished in a tie for 6th place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i in January and then finished tied for 5th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last month. He ranks 24th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season which is the sixth-highest mark in the field this week. He has gained 15 strokes versus the field in this category in his last three tournaments. He has also gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in three straight events. He ranks 22nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total which plays better this week with many of the top pros taking the week off before the Masters next week. He ranks 11th in the field this week in Scrambling from the Sand. He also ranks 12th in the field in Par 4 Scoring. He has a good track record playing in Texas which includes a second place at the Colonial as well as making the cut in five of his six trips to this tournament which include a tie for 8th place and a tie for 9th place.

Bradley is linked with Maverick McNealy in Round One head-to-head props. McNealy finished in second place at the Genesis Invitational last month — but he has since missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship in his next two tournaments before finishing in 30th place last week at the PGA Texas Children’s Houston Open. This course is not a great fit for his skill set. McNealy ranks 75th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. He also ranks 162nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 142nd in Sand Save Percentage so he may get into trouble with the 64 sand bunkers. He has made the cut in both of his previous professional trips to TPC San Antonio but he has not finished better than 35th place in 2022. McNealy also ranks just 94th on the tour in Round One Scoring. Take Bradley (7137) versus McNealy (7138) in Round One head-to-props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week for the 15th straight year. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. This Greg Norman-designed course consistently ranked in the top ten longest on the PGA Tour from year to year — but playing at the altitude of 1100 square feet mitigates how the course plays in terms of distance. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The 156 professionals this week will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event — currently, wind is expected in the 15 miles per hour range all week. The first layer of rye grass rough is two 1/2 inches before additional layers of rough will be as high as six inches. The fairways are 25 to 30 yards in width. The 64 sand bunkers impact all but one of the 18 holes, which are consistently rated as the top ten most difficult sand traps on the PGA Tour. Water comes into play on three of the holes. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification for the Masters at Augusta National next week.

LONG SHOT: Bud Cauley (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Cauley (7016) versus J.T. Poston (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:43 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Bud Cauley who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Cauley is in his second year back on the PGA Tour after a terrible car crash in the fall of 2020 that derailed his career for three years. But the 35-year-old is in fantastic form right now after following up a tie for 6th place at THE PLAYERS Championship with a 4th place two weeks ago at the Valspar Challenge. Cauley gained +8.1 strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green and another +1.9 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee at the Valspar Challenge. He has gained strokes versus the field in four straight events in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. For the 2025 season, he ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total with solid metrics in all four of the major categories. He ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 13th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 35th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 4th in Sand Save Percentage which will be particularly important this week. He ranks 4th in the field this week in Scrambling. In his last 12 rounds, he ranks 3rd in the field in Opportunities Gained — and he is the only pro ranking in the top 30 in that category on the tour who also ranks in the top 10 in Shots-Gained: Putting inside of 15 feet. His tight draw Off-the-Tee should help him attack the pin this week — and he has made the cut in four of his six previous trips here headlined by a tie for 10th place and a tie for 18th place.

Cauley is linked with J.T. Poston in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Poston comes off a tie for 28th place at the Valspar Challenge two weeks ago in what has been an underwhelming campaign so far this season. His best finish was a tie for 12th place at the American Express and then a tie for 16th place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Poston ranks 50th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — but he drops to 91st in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He has struggled with his short game this season. He ranks 162nd in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranks 131st in Sand Save Percentage which is not a good sign for this course. He has made the cut in all four of his previous trips to TPS San Antonio but he has never finished better than his 27th finish in 2017. Take Cauley (7016) versus Poston (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in the second week of April. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fifth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March last year to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring changes how this course plays. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens average 7000 square feet consisting of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Heavy rain and wind along with perhaps thunderstorms are expected for the first two days. Because delays are very much on the table, I don’t think there is AM/PM tee-off edge that can be predicted before seeing what Mother Nature has in store for the 156 professionals competing this week.

BEST BET: Aaron Rai (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rai (7003) versus J.J. Spaun (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:41 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Texas Children’s Houston Open is on Aaron Rai who listed at +2800 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Given the heavy rains expected for the first two days, investing in Scottie Scheffler or Rory McIlroy at their short odds at +350 and +700 respectively makes even less sense than normal. Instead, let’s look to a professional who has four top ten finished in “rain-affected” PGA events including his first last year at the Wyndham Championship. Rai can handle the length of this course since he ranks 23rd on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks 28th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is in great form right now with three straight top-14 finishes after a nice tie for 14th place at THE PLAYERS Challenge two weeks ago. Rai is putting better — after ranking 87th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, he has improved to 50th in that metric this year. He has a great track record at the Memorial Park Golf Course as well. He has made the cut in all three of his previous professional trips here including two ties for seventh place and a tie for 19th place. After his seventh-place result last year, he is one of five players in the field this week with multiple top tens at this course.

Rai is linked with J.J. Spaun with Tournament Matchup in head-to-head props. Spaun is a trendy pick after finishing in second place in two of his last three events after his second-place playoff loss at THE PLAYERS Challenge two weeks ago. He’s playing well — but he is overvalued in this spot given his underlying numbers and is not a good fit for this course. Spaun’s strength is his irons — but this is a long course where length off-the-tee is important. Spaun ranks just 108th in Driving Distance this year — and he ranks 66th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also struggles with his short game as he ranks 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Given the heavy rain and wind this week, the short game around the green is going to be important. Spaun has played this event twice with modest 36th and 46th place finishes. Take Rai (7003) versus Spaun (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in the second week of April. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fifth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March last year to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring changes how this course plays. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens average 7000 square feet consisting of Poa Trivialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Heavy rain and wind along with perhaps thunderstorms are expected for the first two days. Because delays are very much on the table, I don’t think there is AM/PM tee-off edge that can be predicted before seeing what Mother Nature has in store for the 156 professionals competing this week.

LONG SHOT: Taylor Pendrith (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7015) versus Maverick McNealy (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:53 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed at +4000 at DraftKings. Pendrith is particularly appealing this week since he has a nice track record playing in wet conditions. He has three top-ten finishes in rain-affected tournaments including a victory in another long course in Texas at the CJ Cup Bryon Nelson last year. Pendrith comes off a tie for 38th place at THE PLAYERS Championship where he gained +6.8 strokes versus the field with his putter which is usually the weakness in his game. His split stats indicate his better with his blade inside 15 feet. Pendrith has also gained at least +1.0 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in three straight starts. He ranks third on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is also long with his irons as he ranks third in the field in his last 50 rounds in Ball Striking. This is his fourth trip to the Memorial Park golf course with his best finish being his 36th place last year — but he is in better form right now.

Pendrith is linked with Maverick McNealy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McNealy finished in second place at the Genesis Invitational last month — but he has since missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then THE PLAYERS Championship in his two tournaments since. This course is not a great fit for his skill set. McNealy ranks 90th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. He also ranks 164th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He has made the cut in all three of his previous professional trips to Memorial Park but he has not finished better than 19th place. Take Pendrith (7015) versus McNealy (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Texas for the next two weeks with the Master’s looming in the second week of April. The Memorial Park Golf Course hosts the Texas Children’s Houston Open for the fifth straight season as a PGA Tour event. After taking place in the fall for three PGA seasons, this tournament was moved to March last year to replace the World Golf Championship Dell Technologies Match Play event on the schedule — and playing in Houston in the spring changes how this course plays. The track consists of 7435 yards with five Par 3 holes and only three Par 5s for a Par 70 test. The professionals will have to contend with 19 sand bunkers and water hazards on four holes. After the rough was as high as 2 1/2 inches in the past, it has been cut down to only 1 1/4 inches. It appears that bombers off-the-tee will not be punished for missing the fairways that average 30-40 yards in length. The greens average 7000 square feet consisting of Poa Trivilialis overseeded over dormant Bermudagrass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Heavy rain and wind along with perhaps thunderstorms are expected for the first two days. Because delays are very much on the table, I don’t think there is AM/PM tee-off edge that can be predicted before seeing what Mother Nature has in store for the 156 professionals competing this week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Min Woo Lee (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Woo Lee (7012) versus Wyndham Clark (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:53 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Min Woo Lee who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Woo Lee comes off a tie for 20th place at THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago to continue a very consistent stretch of play. He has recorded five top 20 finishes worldwide in his last seven starts worldwide — and he has eight top 25 results in his last ten starts. Furthermore, Woo Lee has recorded eight top 25s since 2023 in either the four major championships or the unofficial fifth major at THE PLAYERS. He recorded three rounds in the 60s at the PGA WM Phoenix Open in February and pulled than off again with three rounds in the 60s at the Cognizant Classic at the beginning of the month. Then at THE PLAYERS, he was in first place after the first two rounds. He is making his debut at the Memorial Park golf course as a professional — but his game presents a great fit for this track since he is a bomber with his driver and excels with his short game. Woo Lee ranks third on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance in 2025. He also ranks 9th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 15th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is the only golfer in the field who ranks in the top 25 on the tour in those three categories.  

Woo Lee is linked with Wyndham Clark in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Clark had to withdraw from THE PLAYERS Championship two weeks ago with a sore neck — so he may still be a work in progress to get back to full health. As it is, Clark is struggling with his irons. He ranks 75th in the field over his last 50 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. For the 2025 season, he ranks 120th on the PGA Tour in that category. Clark is playing this course professionally for the fifth time in his career. His best result was a tie for 16th place in 2023. He also has a 31st and a 41st place finish here — and he missed the cut in his fourth trip. Take Woo Lee (7012) versus Clark (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7352 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 30 yards. The fairways consist of Bermudagrass overseeded by ryegrass. Modifications to the 9th tee after last year’s event added 12 yards to the total distance. The professionals will contend with severe dog legs along with 74 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting nine of the holes. The rough is as high as 3 1/2 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda and Poa Trivialis overseeded greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter. The Copperhead course has been rated the hardest to play relative to Par in two straight seasons. Weather will be a factor — and it did play a significant role in my selections this week as will be indicated.

BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7002) versus Justin Thomas (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:35 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the Valspar Challenge is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood is desperate to win his first PGA Tour event — and the clouds may be aligning this week. Fleetwood has eight victories in international play but has yet to see that translate into a victory on the PGA Tour. Fleetwood has been so close to winning a major championship with seven top-five finishes including two runner-ups at the US Open in 2018 and then the British Open in 2018 — and he settled for third place at the Masters last year. He is in great form right now after making the cut win all four of his PGA events this year with a tie for 22nd place or better in all four events. He finished in a tie for fifth place at the Genesis Invitational last month. Since the FedEx playoffs last August, he has registered 13 straight top-25 finishes in remarkable consistency. He comes off a tie for 14th place at THE PLAYERS Championship last week. He has gained at least 2.5 strokes versus the field in Approach the Green in ten straight tournaments. Fleetwood ranks second on tour in 2025 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. He also ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Total this season. He has made the cut in both his trips to this event with a tie for 16th place in 2022 followed up by a tie for third place in 2023.

Fleetwood is linked with Justin Thomas in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The primary advantage Fleetwood has in this matchup is early/late tee times for the first two days of this event. Rain and heavy wind are expected late Thursday morning through the afternoon which will continue through midday Friday. Fleetwood tees off at 8:35 AM ET while Thomas has the far from ideal 1:23 PM ET tee-off. Thomas is still not completely back in form after his slump last year. While he did register a round of 62 last week at THE PLAYERS Championship, he was over par in each of his other three rounds. He is struggling with his driver. He ranks 111th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 109th in Driver Accuracy. Take Fleetwood (7002) versus Thomas (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7352 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 30 yards. The fairways consist of Bermudagrass overseeded by ryegrass. Modifications to the 9th tee after last year’s event added 12 yards to the total distance. The professionals will contend with severe dog legs along with 74 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting nine of the holes. The rough is as high as 3 1/2 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda and Poa Trivialis overseeded greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter. The Copperhead course has been rated the hardest to play relative to Par in two straight seasons. Weather will be a factor — and it did play a significant role in my selections this week as will be indicated.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Sepp Straka (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Straka (7004) versus Xander Schaueffele (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:13 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who is most overvalued relative to the odds is on Sepp Straka who is listed at +2200 odds to win this event. We were on Straka as our Long Shot Bet last week at THE PLAYERS Championship and he finished in a tie for 14th place (while winning our prop bet).  Straka is playing the best golf of his career with now seven top 15s in 2025 headlined by winning the PGA The American Express. He is second in the PGA Tour in FedEx points coming off a fifth place at the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational last two weeks ago. Straka is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour who won at PGA West at The American Express earlier this year. Straka ranks fifth on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation — and he ranks seventh overall in Shots-Gained: Total. Furthermore, Straka ranks seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Given that this is a shorter course and with all the water and sand obstacles, accuracy off the tee is essential this week — and Straka ranks 11th on the tour in Driving Accuracy. He has only made the cut once in his two professional trips at this event but he is in great form right now.

Straka is linked with Xander Schauffele in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The primary advantage Straka has in this matchup is early/late tee times for the first two days of this event. Rain and heavy wind are expected late Thursday morning through the afternoon which will continue through midday Friday. Straka tees off at 8:13 AM ET while Schauffele has the far from ideal 11:13 AM ET tee-off. Schauffele is still working off a wrist injury that has impacted his schedule and quality of play all year. His third event in 2025 was last week when he finished in 72nd place at THE PLAYERS Championship. He is working with new coach Cris Como — but the goal is clearly to peak the Masters rather than this non-signature event. With the unfortunate late morning tee-time, he is at a disadvantage versus Straka with perhaps different motivations this week. Take Straka (7004) versus Schauffele (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7352 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 30 yards. The fairways consist of Bermudagrass overseeded by ryegrass. Modifications to the 9th tee after last year’s event added 12 yards to the total distance. The professionals will contend with severe dog legs along with 74 sand bunkers and water hazards impacting nine of the holes. The rough is as high as 3 1/2 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda and Poa Trivialis overseeded greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter. The Copperhead course has been rated the hardest to play relative to Par in two straight seasons. Weather will be a factor — and it did play a significant role in my selections this week as will be indicated.

LONG SHOT: Adam Scott (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Scott (7012) versus Jordan Spieth (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:13 AM ET.

Scott had made the cut in four straight PGA Tour events before missing the cut last week at THE PLAYERS Championship which should leave him ornery this week. Scott has peaked with a 15th place at The Sentry to open the season — but it would be a mistake to discount this veteran with 14 victories on the PGA Tour. He is well familiar with this course having played here seven previous times. His best finish was a tie for 16th place — but while the veteran is always a threat, his early tee-time makes him particularly intriguing at these odds.

Scott is linked with Jordan Spieth for Round One head-to-head props. The primary advantage Scott has in this matchup is early/late tee times for the first two days of this event. Rain and heavy wind are expected late Thursday morning through the afternoon which will continue through midday Friday. Scott tees off at 8:13 AM ET while Spieth has the far from ideal 1:23 PM ET tee-off. Spieth is still recovering from a wrist injury in the offseason. He comes off a 59th-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship last week. My concern with him — outside the disastrous tee-time (which, who knows, could get flipped if all of Thursday is lost, so prudence) is that he ranks 132nd so far this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is just not back to his former self yet. Take Scott (7012) versus Spieth (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7352 yards. Major changes have taken place on the course with 16 of the 18 holes now featuring new yardage after Scottie Scheffler has won this tournament in two straight years. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The fairways average 28 yards in width. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter. This event features 144 professionals with the top 65 finishers plus ties after Round Two making the cut.

LONG SHOT: Sepp Straka (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Straka (7014) versus Keegan Bradley (7152) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:57 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Sepp Straka who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Straka is playing his best golf of his career with six top 15s in 2025 headlined by winning the PGA The American Express. He leads the PGA Tour in FedEx points coming off a fifth place at the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational last week despite starting the week with a round of 77 last Thursday. Straka is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour who specializes on Dye-designed courses. He followed up a fourth place at PGA West at The American Express by winning this year’s event — and he also has third and fifth-place results at Harbour Town in South Carolina on a Dye-crafted course. Straka ranks second on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation — and he ranks ninth overall in Shots-Gained: Total. Furthermore, Straka ranks 11th on the tour (and top five in the field) in Shots Gained: Tee-To-Green and ninth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green (including fourth in the field over his last 36 holes). Given that this is a shorter course and with all the water and sand obstacles, accuracy off the tee is essential this week — and Straka ranks 11th on the tour in Driving Accuracy. He has two top 16s at this tournament with a tie for ninth place in 2022 followed up by a tie for 16th place last year. With three wins on the PGA Tour and plenty of success on the DP European Tour, he will not be intimidated when competing to win this event on Sunday.

Straka is linked with Keegan Bradley for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Bradley is a good ball-striker who comes off a tie for fifth place last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He has enjoyed a solid start to the season although his previous two starts resulted in a tie for 65th place at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am before a tie for 34th place at the Genesis Invitational. Bradley trails Straka by ranking 17th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Gree and 25th in Show-Gained: Approach the Green this season. He also ranks 116th in Greens-In-Regulation this year. Considering that he ranks 61st in Driver Accuracy in 2025, I don’t think his game fits the cause as much as Straka. Bradley has played this event 14 times and made the cut nine times — but he has missed the cut on two straight trips. Take Straka (7014) versus Bradley (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7352 yards. Major changes have taken place on the course with 16 of the 18 holes now featuring new yardage after Scottie Scheffler has won this tournament in two straight years. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The fairways average 28 yards in width. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter. This event features 144 professionals with the top 65 finishers plus ties after Round Two making the cut.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7003) versus Ludvig Aberg (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:24 AM ET.

Our Best Bet on the golfer to win THE Players Championship is on Collin Morikawa who is listed +1400 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa was cruising on the way to victory last week at Bay Hill at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before Russell Henley holed a near-miracle chip shot in big rough to register an eagle on the 16th hole on Sunday to rally from a one-shot deficit to the eventual winning one-shot victory. Morikawa was unable to birdie one of the two remaining holes and settled for second place. That setback should leave him ornery to get the win this week — and he is way overdue. His results have been consistently good with a second place at The Sentry followed up by a pair of ties for 17th place at Pebble Beach and then the Genesis Invitational. Morikawa ranks second on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — so it is hard to jump off the bandwagon when priced more than three times the return that Scottie Scheffler is at +400. His putting has been an Achilles’ heel in the past — but he ranks 27th in Shots-Gained: Putting so far this season and he has had success when putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks second on the PGA Tour this year Shots-Gained: Total which is critical given the need for successful golfers to utilize all the clubs in their bag this week. He also ranks second in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and he is 16th in Bogey Avoidance which is an important metric for difficult courses. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters last season, he registered 13 straight top-25 finishes before losing touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play at the Tour Championship (and then at The Sentry) suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. Morikawa has played this event five times including the postponed event in 2020 because of COVID. His best finish was a tie for 13th place in 2023 — but his great form and fit for this course offers him great value.

Morikawa is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to- head props. I’m high on Aberg — but the books don’t offer golfers like Morikawa matched up against the worst golfers in the field, so tough choices are required. Given the very competitive field this week, I worry about Aberg’s recent trend of blowing up in one of his four rounds. Last week when we were on him at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, his third round of 77 ruined his tournament. Aberg finished in eighth place in his debut at THE PLAYERS last year — and he now lives in Ponte Verda so this is his new home course. But it’s still not a great fit to take advantage of his length off the tee. His season stats need to be taken with a grain of salt since he was ill during two of his events. But he still ranks 91st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this year which is not a good sign for a shorter course when the second shot is critical. He also ranks 122nd in Shots Gained: Around the Green which is worrisome given the rough and the 92 sand bunkers. Take Morikawa (7003) versus Aberg (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

 
THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7352 yards. Major changes have taken place on the course with 16 of the 18 holes now featuring new yardage after Scottie Scheffler has won this tournament in two straight years. The challenges are numerous with 92 bunkers and water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The overseeded rough reaches four inches. The fairways average 28 yards in width. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter. This event features 144 professionals with the top 65 finishers plus ties after Round Two making the cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Hideki Matsumaya (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7112) versus Ludvig Aberg (7111) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:24 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +2800 odds to win this tournament. Matsuyama has made the cut in all seven of his tournaments this season after finishing tied for 13th place at the Genesis Invitational a month ago. He has five top 25 finishes this year including winning The Sentry in Hawai’i to open the 2025 PGA Tour. He ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total this season. His ball-striking remains elite as he ranks 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. He also ranks 15th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green which is important this week given the rough and sand hazards. But what is most intriguing about Matsuyama right now is that he is putting at his best proficiency in his career. While his blade is usually the Achilles heel in his game, he currently ranks 32nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Matsuyama has something to prove at this tournament after tying the course record with a round of 63 in 2020 before the event was postponed because of COVID that year. At this course, he has finished in a tie for fifth place and in sixth place in his last two trips. Overall here, he has four top 10s and three more top 25 results. He is one of just four players competing this week that has finished in the top ten in the last two events here. He has posted seven rounds of 67 or better.

Matsuyama is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Round One head-to-head props. I’m high on Aberg — but the books don’t offer golfers like Morikawa matched up against the worst golfers in the field, so tough choices are required. Given the very competitive field this week, I worry about Aberg’s recent trend of blowing up in one of his four rounds. Last week when we were on him at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, his third round of 77 ruined his tournament. Aberg finished in eighth place in his debut at THE PLAYERS last year — and he now lives in Ponte Verda so this is his new home course. But it’s still not a great fit to take advantage of his length off the tee. His season stats need to be taken with a grain of salt since he was ill during two of his events. But he still ranks 91st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this year which is not a good sign for a shorter course when the second shot is critical. He also ranks 122nd in Shots Gained: Around the Green which is worrisome given the rough and the 92 sand bunkers. Take Matsuyama (7112) versus Aberg (7111) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass and they are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze will be 18 miles per hour and gusting up to 25 MPH on Day One and returning again on Sunday with projections of 15 MPH and gusting to 20 MPH. This is the fourth signature event in 2025 with 73 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.31 per round which made it the eighth straight season when this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7151) versus Sam Burns (7152) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:00 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet to win the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. We were on Lowry last week — and he settled for a tie for 11th place at the PGA Cognizant Classic. Lowry is in very nice form — and he loves playing in his home state of Florida so this price is too good to pass up. He has finished in the top 12 in ten of his last 12 events worldwide including an impressive third place in the DP World Tour Championship. He finished in second place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last month. When playing in Florida, he has finished in the top ten in eight of his last ten starts — so he is starting with a likely high floor this week. He is second on the PGA Tour in 2025 in Proximity to the Hole. Lowry is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Last year, he ranked 12th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green and 17th in Total Driving. So far this year, he ranks 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 23rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Seven of the last eight winners at this event finished the week by ranking in the top 17 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Lowry had seven top-nine finishes on the PGA Tour last season including a pair of sixth-place results at the PGA Championship and the British Open. He had struggled at this tournament before last year when he finished in third place after either leading or co-leading in each of the first three days of the event. Twelve of the last 13 winners of this tournament had previously finished in the top 25 at this event. And, by the way, if the wind plays a factor this week, Lowry is the prototype golfer we want to back given his experience in these conditions including a British Open victory for the Irishman.

Lowry is linked with Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head props. Burns is another golfer who I tend to support — so I am not a zombie when making these weekly decisions. Burns thrives when putting on Bermuda greens, so I do not make this (comparative) decision lightly. I am comfortable fading him this week given his form with his accuracy and his past performances on this course. While he ranks 28th in Driving Distance so far this season, he plummets to 110th in Driving Accuracy — and this is the wrong course to miss the fairway given all the water and sand notwithstanding the narrow fairways and alas the wind on Thursday and Sunday. He also ranks 113th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season — and seven of the last eight winners of this tournament finished in the top 16 for the week in that category. Sure enough, Burns’ tie for ninth place in 2022 was his lone top-25 finish at this tournament in his seven trips despite his affinity for the Bermuda greens. Take Lowry (7151) versus Burns (7152) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass and they are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze will be 18 miles per hour and gusting up to 25 MPH on Day One and returning again on Sunday with projections of 15 MPH and gusting to 20 MPH. This is the fourth signature event in 2025 with 73 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.31 per round which made it the eighth straight season when this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7124) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7123) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa has been a familiar name for us so far this season. His results have been good but not spectacular with a second place at The Sentry followed up by a pair of ties for 17th place at Pebble Beach and then the Genesis Invitational. But Morikawa ranks second on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — so it is hard to jump off the bandwagon when being off six times the return that Scottie Scheffler is at +320. His putting has been an Achilles’ heel in the past — but he ranks 27th in Shots-Gained: Putting so far this season and he has had success when putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks second on the PGA Tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and he is 16th in Bogey Avoidance which is an important metric for difficult courses. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and seven of the last eight winners of this tournament finished the week in the top 16 in that category. Morikawa also ranks fourth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Ball Striking (Total Driving plus Greens-In-Regulation) on courses with high penalties for missing the fairway. Morikawa should be energized to lift a trophy this year after failing to win a tournament in 2024 — but he was ever so close with six top-five finishes on the PGA Tour. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters last season, he registered 13 straight top-25 finishes before losing touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play at the Tour Championship (and then at The Sentry) suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. In four trips at this tournament, he peaked with a tie for ninth place in 2020. Twelve of the last 13 winners here had at least one top 25 result under their belt as a professional at this event.

Morikawa is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Round One head-to-head props. Matsuyama is a frequent favorite of mine regarding these weekly investments on the PGA Tour — so I should not be accused of blind favoritism. Since winning The Sentry in early January, he is trending in the wrong direction. His tie for 13th place at the Genesis Invitational was his best finish since that early triumph. He is struggling with his Ball-Striking — especially off the tee which is not a good issue to be dealing with this week given all the hazards for not being long and straight. After ranking 33rd on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee, he has dropped to 114th in that category this season. Matsuyama has been short and wild with his driver this year — the worst of both worlds. He ranks 111th this year in Driving Distance and 166th in Driver Accuracy. That explains why he ranks 175th in Total Driving in 2025. In regards to Ball-Striking, he ranks 152nd this season. Matsuyama has made the cut at this tournament in nine of his ten visits — but he ranks 106th in Round One Scoring so far this season. Take Morikawa (7124) versus Matsuyama (7123) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This event is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards originally designed by Dick Wilson before several redesigns overseen by Palmer. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it has annually ranked as one of the top-ten hardest courses on the PGA Tour in the last five years, particularly for a Par 72 event. The thick rough grows out to 4 inches. Nine holes present water hazards. There are 84 sand bunkers. The fairways consist of overseeded ryegrass and they are often doglegs while averaging only 32 yards in width. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure up to 13.5 feet on the stimpmeter. The wind is often a challenge in Orlando at this time of the year — and the breeze will be 18 miles per hour and gusting up to 25 MPH on Day One and returning again on Sunday with projections of 15 MPH and gusting to 20 MPH. This is the fourth signature event in 2025 with 73 professionals vying for the more lucrative purse. The scoring average last year was 72.31 per round which made it the eighth straight season when this tournament saw the professionals average over par per round. The low-50 scores plus ties and any players within ten strokes will survive the cut.

BEST BET: Ludvig Aberg (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7121) versus Scottie Scheffler (7122) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:45 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. We were on Aberg three weeks ago when he won the PGA Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. As I wrote for that report, Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — especially at these odds. Even better for this week, Aberg is playing Bay Hill for the third time in his career as a professional — so he will be like a savvy veteran this time around relative to his inexperience on the other courses on the PGA Tour. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He began this season by finishing in fifth place at the stacked field at The Sentry which kicked off the 2025 season in Hawai’i. He battled a virus for his middle two starts before winning at Torrey Lines last month. Aberg is a great fit for this course because he is one of the biggest drivers on the tour so the 7466 yards the pros encounter this week play to his strength. His Strokes-Gained metrics and other analytic data need to be taken with a grain of salt since he played through illness in two of his four starts on the PGA Tour. He ranked fourth on the tour in Total Driving and tenth in Driving Distance: All Drives last season. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. He was also 21st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He proved he could handle difficult courses last year with a second-place finish at the Masters. He finished last season ranking 23rd in Bogey Avoidance.  I suspect the days are dwindling when Aberg is not listed at short odds like Scottie Scheffler at +320 or Rory McIlroy at +750 are this week. Those are underlay values at those prices. On such a difficult course with a dynamite field, let’s invest in Aberg again at this decent price.  

Aberg is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Round One head-to-head props. I don’t love fading Scheffler — but this is the best time to do it since he is searching for his peak form. That sentiment is a statement of just how good he is when he is at his best since he comes off a tie for third place at the Genesis Invitational last month — and he also has a tie for 25th place at the WM Phoenix Open and a tie for ninth place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He is putting better this year — so he may very well go on a tear sooner rather than later. But his hand injury that delayed the start of his season leaves him rusty with his ball-striking. After ranking second in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last year, he has dropped to 50th in that metric so far this season. The issue is with his accuracy — after ranking 23rd in Driving Accuracy last year, he has fallen to 112th in that metric in 2025. With all the water and sand — and contending with the wind — while confronting narrow fairways and four-inch rough, finding the short stuff this week is critical. Scheffler is also struggling with his short game. After ranking 17th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, he has fallen back to 74th in that category this season. He has won this tournament twice before including last year — but perhaps the pressure and responsibilities to defend his title this season while being in less than ideal form will work against him. Take Aberg (7121) versus Scheffler (7122) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next four weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moved from a Par 70 to a Par 71 last year with the tenth hole converted from a 508-yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. After 20 more yards were added to the length of tenth hole for this year’s event, the course length is now 7167 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average — and the fairways have been narrowed by four acres and approach turf this year. The Bermuda grass rough is overseeded for the first time in 11 years and for the second straight year has been reduced from three inches to 2 1/4 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Wind is usually a factor during this tournament but the weather forecast calls for mild winds for the week (as of Wednesday night).

LONG SHOT: Nicolai Hojgaard (+5500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hojgaard (7142) versus Harry Hall (7141) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:51 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Nicolai Hojgaard who is listed at +5500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Hojgaard splits his time on the European tour — this will be his third PGA tournament this year. After a tie for 36th at the PGA WM Phoenix Open last month, he earned an eighth place last week at the PGA Mexico Open. Now with two tournaments under his belt, Hojgaard has enough of a sample size to qualify for their category rankings — and the numbers look great. Not only does he rank seventh on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total, but he also ranks third in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green which is a critical skill this week given all the sand and water hazards. Furthermore, Hojgaard ranks tenth in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and nine of the last 11 winners of this tournament finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. He also ranks 14th in Bogey Avoidance — the last four winners of this tournament averaged sixth for the week in that category. Six of the last nine winners of this event finished in the top four in Bogey Avoidance for the week. Hojgaard has four victories worldwide in his young career including taking the 2023 DP World Tour title before officially joining the PGA Tour last year. He finished in second place at the Farmers Insurance Open before a nice tie for 16th place at the Masters and then a seventh-place result in the Olympics. He missed the cut in his previous trip to PGA National — but his past experience here will help this week.

Hojgaard is linked with Harry Hall in Round One head-to-head props. Hall started the year on fire with a tie for eighth place at The Sentry before finishing the Hawai’i swing with a tie for tenth place at the Sony Open. He kept his good form with a tie for 21st place at The American Express at the beginning of the west coast swing. Fatigue may be setting in now as he since dropped to a tie for 58th place at Pebble Beach before missing the cut at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Last week, he settled for a tie for 34th place at the PGA Mexico Open despite the less competitive field. He had lost strokes in two straight events in both Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach the Green before last week’s disappointing results. He ranks 95th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green which is not a good sign in handling the Champions Course here. He also ranks 106th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he rails 103rd in the approach from 175 to 200 yards from the pin. That is a critical distance this week since 25% of the approach shots from the professionals come from 175 to 200 yards away. Hall has struggled at PGA National with a 74th place in 2023 followed by a missed cut last year. Take Hojgaard (7142) versus Hall (7141) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next four weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moved from a Par 70 to a Par 71 last year with the tenth hole converted from a 508-yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. After 20 more yards were added to the length of tenth hole for this year’s event, the course length is now 7167 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average — and the fairways have been narrowed by four acres and approach turf this year. The Bermuda grass rough is overseeded for the first time in 11 years and for the second straight year has been reduced from three inches to 2 1/4 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Wind is usually a factor during this tournament but the weather forecast calls for mild winds for the week (as of Wednesday night).

BEST BET: Shane Lowry (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7135) versus Min Woo Lee (7210) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:40 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Cognizant Classic is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. I usually bypass the top betting favorite — but we are usually looking at a short price below +1000 for that golfer. The opportunity to invest in Lowry who is a Florida resident with a great track record at this course is too good to pass up. He has made the cut in all seven of his professional trips to the PGA National with three straight top five finishes. After a second place result in 2022, he finished in a tie for fifth place in 2023 before his tie for fourth place last year. He often begins the Florida swing looking to find his form after middling results on the west coast — but Lowry enters this event with a second place finish at the PGA AT&T Pro-Am Pebble Beach Open at the beginning of the month. He followed that up with a tie for 39th place two weeks ago at the PGA Genesis Invitational. He leads the PGA Tour in 2025 in Proximity to the Hole. He also ranks third on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards from the pin — and 25% of the approach shots at this tournament are within that range. Lowry is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Last year, he ranked 12th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green and 17th in Total Driving. He also ranked 22nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green last year — and nine of the last 11 winners of this tournament finished in the top five for the week in that category. Lowry had seven top-nine finishes on the PGA Tour last season including a pair of sixth-place results at the PGA Championship and the British Open.

Lowry is linked with Min Woo Lee in Round One head-to-head props. Woo Lee finished second at this tournament last year — but I still don’t like how his profile matches with the challenges at the Champions Course at PGA National. With all the water hazards, accuracy off the tee and with the irons in the approach are critical. After ranking 139th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, Woo Lee ranks 142nd in that category this season. Woo Lee is long off the tee but he ranked 147th in Driver Accuracy last year — and he ranks 164th in that metric this year. He ranked 147th in Bogey Avoidance in 2024 — and success in that category typically defines success at this event. The last six winners of this tournament averaged sixth for the week in Bogey Avoidance — and six of the last nine winners finished in the top four in Bogey Avoidance for the week. Woo Lee finished in 26th place in his first professional trip to this course in 2023. After a tie for 17th place at Pebble Beach then a tie for 12th place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open, he took a step back with a tie for 48th place two weeks ago at the PGA Genesis Invitational. Take Lowry (7135) versus Woo Lee (7136) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next four weeks beginning with the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches at the Champion Course at the PGA National Resort. The former Honda Classic moved from a Par 70 to a Par 71 last year with the tenth hole converted from a 508-yard Par 4 hole to a Par 5 hole consisting of 530 yards under its new sponsor. After 20 more yards were added to the length of tenth hole for this year’s event, the course length is now 7167 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 60 sand bunkers. The tight fairways are only 30 yards in length on average — and the fairways have been narrowed by four acres and approach turf this year. The Bermuda grass rough is overseeded for the first time in 11 years and for the second straight year has been reduced from three inches to 2 1/4 inches. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Wind is usually a factor during this tournament but the weather forecast calls for mild winds for the week (as of Wednesday night).

TOP OVERLAY BET: Kurt Kitayama (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kitayama (7133) versus Austin Eckroat (7134) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:29 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Kurt Kitayama who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Kitayama was our Best Bet last week at the PGA Mexico Open — but he let us down by missing the cut despite the less competitive field. Kitayama has yet to finish in the top 35 so far this season — but he should have a chip on his shoulder this week after missing the cut. He returns to the PGA National Champion Course where he finished in third place in 2022. Kitayama is not playing bad — he had made the cut in three of his four PGA tournaments before last week but his best result was a tie for 37th place at the Sony Open last month. Kitayama remains one of the better golfers on the PGA Tour. He had three top-eight finishes last year — and he finished in the top 41 at the Masters, the PGA Championship, and the British Open. He is a great fit for this golf course because he is one of the best drivers on the tour. Last year, he ranked seventh on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. That is a key metric for success at this tournament since nine of the last 11 winners of this tournament finished the week in the top five for the week in that metric. And after ranking 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2024, he currently ranks 14th on the tour this year in that category. Kitayama is also reliable with his irons — he ranked eighth on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 175 to 200 yards. The Champions Course sees 25% of the approach shots from the pros come from that distance. Kitayama also ranked 28th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance last season — and the last four winners of this tournament averaged sixth for the week in that category. Six of the last nine winners of this event finished in the top four in Bogey Avoidance for the week. Kitayama opened the week priced at +3500 at DraftKings — so we are getting even more value with his price rising to +4000. I like investing in good golfers who have a little extra to prove when coming off a missed cut the previous week.

Kitayama is linked with Austin Eckroat in Round One head-to-head props. Eckroat is the defending champion of this tournament after breaking the course record relative to par with a 17 under score. Now he has to take on the additional challenge of handling the off the course responsibilities of being the defending champion. His accuracy with his driver explains why he scored so well last year — but he is not as accurate with his irons right now which could get him in trouble this year. After ranking 27th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, he has dropped to 102nd in that category so far this season. With all the water and sand hazards, struggling with his irons spells trouble on this course. Eckroat ranked 50th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green last year, he has dropped to 141st in that metric this season. This could be the canary in the coal mine regarding his taking a step back this time around. Nine of the last 11 winners of this tournament finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. He ranked 114th in Bogey Avoidance last year — and he has stepped back to 136th in that category this year. As mentioned above, the last four winners of this tournament averaged sixth for the week in that category. Six of the last nine winners of this event finished in the top four in Bogey Avoidance for the week. Eckroat has been (pretty good) feast or utter famine so far in 2025. He has two top-15 finishes at The Sentry in Hawai’i and then Pebble Beach — but he has missed the cut in his other four PGA tournaments. He took last week off — but this will still be his fifth tournament in the last six weeks so fatigue may be an issue as well. Take Kitayama (7133) versus Eckroat (7134) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no high than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the fourth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the fourth straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament having moved from April to February on the tour schedule two years ago. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7436 yards with five Par 3 holes and four Par 5 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. The biggest change from last year is that the Par 4 eighth hole is 20 yards closer to the tee. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average. Additionally, 42.3% of the approach shots came from 200 yards or more yards away — so this course plays long. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 55 bunkers. Water is in play on 13 of the holes. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Platinum Paspalum grass that plays slow and measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. The field consists of 132 professionals with the top 65 scores along with ties making the weekend cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Michael Kim (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kim (7008) versus Samuel Stevens (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:32 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Michael Kim who is l issued at +2500 odds at DraftKings. At one of the weaker fields on the PGA Tour this season, I think Kim has some sneaky value relative to the top favorites who tend to have some significant red flags on their resume this week. Kim is improving with his distance off the tee which has helped him finish second at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago before a tie for 13th place last week at the PGA Genesis Invitational at its temporary location at Torrey Pines. At 7765 yards, the South Course at Torrey Pines is one of the longest tracks on the PGA Tour. Kim is putting up solid season-long numbers with his driver — he ranks 47th in Total Driving and 42nd Driving Distance this season. He also ranks 19th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which is very encouraging for his chances this week. The last three winners at this tournament finished the week in the top three in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Kim is usually reliable with his long irons as well. Last year, he ranked fourth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or more yards away from the pin — and 42.3% of the approach shots at this tournament are from 200 or more yards away. Kim has experience at this event -- he is playing her for the third time in its four-year history. He finished in 30th place here in 2023 but comes into this week in much better form.

Kim is linked with Sam Stevens in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Stevens has made the cut in all six of his PGA events in 2025 — and he peaked with a second place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open last month. But the 28-year-old has only finished in the top 20 one other time — and he is winless on the PGA Tour in his career. In theory, perhaps he takes advantage of the less competitive field this week — but this is also his seventh straight week on the tour so fatigue might be an issue. His ball-striking tends to be mediocre. Last year, he ranked 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. After ranking 110th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or more yards away last year, he has only improved to 85th in that category this season which is a concern for this course. He ranked an intriguing 17th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last season but he has fallen back to 45th in that category this year. He has improved to 50th this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee but he ranked 73rd in that metric in 2024. He has played this event once last year — but he missed the cut. Take Kim (7008) versus Stevens (7007) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher an -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the fourth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the fourth straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament having moved from April to February on the tour schedule two years ago. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7436 yards with five Par 3 holes and four Par 5 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. The biggest change from last year is that the Par 4 eighth hole is 20 yards closer to the tee. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average. Additionally, 42.3% of the approach shots came from 200 yards or more yards away — so this course plays long. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 55 bunkers. Water is in play on 13 of the holes. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Platinum Paspalum grass that plays slow and measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. The field consists of 132 professionals with the top 65 scores along with ties making the weekend cut.

BEST BET: Kurt Kitayama (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kitayama (7119) versus Niklas Norgaard (7210) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:25 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Mexico Open is on Kurt Kitayama who is listed at +2200 at DraftKings. Kitayama has yet in the top 35 so far this season — but participating in a less competitive field this week with the PGA Tour moving from the West Coast to Florida may be just what the doctor ordered. Kitayama is not playing bad — he has made the cut in three of his four PGA tournaments but his best result was a tie for 37th place at the Sony Open last month. Kitayama remains one of the better golfers on the PGA Tour. He had three top-eight finishes last year — and he finished in the top 41 at the Masters, the PGA Championship, and the British Open. He is a great fit for this golf course because he is one of the best drivers on the tour. Last year, he ranked seventh on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. That is a key metric for success at this tournament since the last three winners of this event all finished in the top three for the week in that metric. And after ranking 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2024, he currently ranks 13th on the tour this year in that category. The last three winners of this tournament all finished in the top 11 for the week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is also long with his irons — he ranks fifth on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or farther yards away from the hole. Last year at this event, 42.3% of the approach shots came from 200 or more yards away. Kitayama is one of four pros in the field this week who ranks in the top 20 this season in both Driving Distance and Proximity from the hole from 200 or more yards away. In his last 36 rounds, he ranks in the top three in the field in the following categories: Shots-Gained: Total; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green; Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He thrives on long courses — and all six of his top four or better finishes since 2022 were on courses that consisted of 7400 or more yards including his first place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2023. He played this event once in 2022 when he finished in second place — and he gained strokes against the field in all four major categories (Off-the-Tee, Approach the Green, Around the Green, Putting).

Kitayama is linked with Niklas Norgaard in Round One head-to-head props. Norgaard is a journeyman on the European DP Tour. He does have nice power with his driver — but there too many red flags to consider him versus a PGA Tour veteran like Kitayama, especially for the opening Round One. This is Norgaard’s just fifth event on the PGA Tour. While he has plenty of experience in Europe, the North American climate and the course layouts on the PGA Tour take some experience to find comfort. Even more concerning for Norgaard is his lack of experience with the Platinum Plaspalum grass unique to Central America that plays slowe other putting surfaces. Norgaard played at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year but missed the cut. He struggled with the Poa annua greens where his putting numbers would place him 139th on the tour if he met the sample size requirements. His only PGA Tour event last year was the joint event at the PGA Genesis Scottish Open on a more familiar European course. His other two events on the PGA Tour were in 2021 and 2022 when he played at the joint event with the DP Tour at the Barbasol Championships in Kentucky on a course that has Bentgrass greens that could not be more different than Paspalum. Norgaard struggles with his short game including his chipping and sand wedge play. He only converted two of his four sand save attempts at the Farmers Insurance Open which trails the PGA Tour sand save average of 58.44%. Kitayama ranks 38th on the tour in Round One Scoring in 2025. Given that Norgaard is a debutante when it comes to his professional career at the Vedanta  Vallarta Course and is inexperienced with Paspalum, I am very comfortable fading Norgaard and his PGA Tour inexperience. Take Kitayama (7119) versus Norgaard (7120) in Round One head-to-head  props. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Puerto Vallarta, Jalisco in Mexico for the fourth edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta at the Vidanta Vallarta Resort Course. This Greg Norman-designed course hosts this event for the fourth straight year although less wind is expected with the tournament having moved from April to February on the tour schedule two years ago. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7436 yards with five Par 3 holes and four Par 5 holes. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 585 yards. Six of the Par 4s play at 459 yards or longer. The biggest change from last year is that the Par 4 eighth hole is 20 yards closer to the tee. In last year’s tournament, 62% of the approach shots came from at least 175 yards away which was 22% more than the tour average. Additionally, 42.3% of the approach shots came from 200 yards or more yards away — so this course plays long. While the Paspalum grass fairways are wide at an average of 41 yards, the professionals will have to maneuver against 55 bunkers. Water is in play on 13 of the holes. The rough has grown out to 2 1/2 inches but remains playable on this resort course. The greens consist of Platinum Paspalum grass that plays slow and measures up to 11 feet on the stimpmeter. The putting surfaces average 7000 square feet. The field consists of 132 professionals with the top 65 scores along with ties making the weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Alex Smalley (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Smalley (7105) versus Titch Moore (7106) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 8:41 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer who is listed outside the top ten favorites is on Alex Smalley who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Smalley is in good form on the tour right now — and he has the power to thrive on this course. He has made the cut in three of his first four events this season including an 11th place at The American Express and a tie for 21st place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Smalley ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He also ranks seventh on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which is encouraging for this tournament. The last three winners at this event finished the week in the top three in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. And while 42.3% of the approach shots come from 200 or more yards from the pin, Smalley’s current ranking of sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or more yards away from the hole is very encouraging. Smalley ranks 18th in Ball-Striking (Total Driving plus Greens-In-Regulation) after ranking fifth in that metric last season — and the last two winners of this tournament led the field for the week in Ball Striking. Smalley’s Achilles’ heel has been his putting — but he has demonstrated recent improvement with his blade. He has gained more than 5.0 strokes versus the field with his putter at the Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Now he takes on the slower Paspalum greens where he has had nice success. He finished in sixth place on this course in 2022. Additionally, in his five trips to the El Cardonal and Corales Puntacana courses that feature Paspalum grass greens, he has finished in the top 25 four times. Smalley ranks top ten in the field in Shots-Gained: Total at both resort courses and courses that feature Paspalum greens.

Smalley is linked with Taylor Moore in Round One head-to-head props. Moore has made four straight cuts culminating with a tie for ninth place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Moore is a big hitter off the tee but he only ranks 55th in Driving Distance this season — and his approach game will be challenged this week. Moore ranks 116th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season — and he has struggled with his longer irons. After ranking 124th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green from 200 or more yards away last year, he has taken a step back to 138th in that category this year. Moore can also struggle with his putting which puts him at a disadvantage at events like this which will likely require a very low score. He ranks 141st in Shots-Gained: Putting this year — and he is only 75th in Birdies or Better Percentage. I worry about golfers who struggle with their putting and who are relatively inexperienced on the Paspalum greens. Moore has played in this tournament only once when he missed the cut in 2022. Moore also ranks just 86th in Round One Scoring in 2025 — and Smalley ranks 25th on the PGA Tour this season in Round One Scoring. Take Smalley (7105) versus Moore (7106) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, California, for the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. The fires in Los Angeles prompted the temporary move away from the Riviera Country Club this year. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. This is the third signature event on the PGA Tour this season with 72 professionals competing this week (29 of them also competed at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open here three weeks ago). The players with the 50 lowest scores plus ties and anyone else within strokes of the lead after Round Two will make the cut. While the pros rotate between the North and South Courses for the Farmers Insurance Open for the opening two rounds before the final two rounds are played on the South Course, only the more challenging South Course will be used this week (as was the case for the 2021 US Open). Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The Par 72 South Course consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways averaging 28 yards in width. The pros will contend with 82 sand bunkers and water that is in play on one hole. The smaller greens averaging 4800 square feet consist of Poa annua grass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Rain is expected for at least the first two rounds this week. On Thursday, there is a 90% chance of rain with winds ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. On Friday, the chance of rain is 24% with winds continuing to range from 10 to 20 miles per hour.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Ludvig Aberg (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7006) versus Hideki Matsuyama (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:09 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — especially at these odds. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. We are taking a leap of faith that he has recovered from the illness that impacted him here at the Farmers Insurance Open — and he was still not right the next week when he withdrew after his Thursday round at Pebble Beach. We are experiencing several viruses out there that are putting ordinary folks on the shelf for weeks — so Aberg may not be 100%. On the other hand, the reports at Torrey Pines on Tuesday for observers watching him closely concluded that he looked great. Practicing here all week three weeks ago only helps with his knowledge of the course. At this price, he is worth the health risk since he is one of the pros best equipped to tame the long distances on the South Course. One of Aberg’s strengths is with his driver — he ranked fourth on the tour in Total Driving and tenth in Driving Distance: All Drives last season. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. He was also 21st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He began 2025 with a tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He was the betting favorite in his second tournament here at the Farmers Insurance Open at PGA West — and he was the co-leader after two rounds. Then the winds hit Friday afternoon which buried most of the pros teeing off later in the day — and then he caught what was first thought to be a stomach bug on Day Four on Saturday to settle for a tie for 42nd place. He still ranked third in the field that week in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Off-The-Tee plus SG: Approach the Green). He proved he could handle difficult courses last year with a second-place finish at the Masters. He finished last season ranking 23rd in Bogey Avoidance. He should be pretty feisty coming into this event after these frustrating recent results.

Aberg is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. We have been Matsuyama several times already this season after he began the year by winning the PGA The Sentry event in Hawai’i in early January. But he is a fade candidate right now (relative to his price) given his continued recent struggles with his driver. In settling for a tie for 25th place last week at the PGA WM Phoenix Open, he lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee for the third straight tournament. This is on the wrong track to be experiencing issues with your driver given the length of the course. When he played at Torrey Pines three weeks ago at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open, he finished in 34th place. It was here where his struggles with his driver began as he still gained +6.4 strokes versus the field in Approach-The-Green. Matsuyama ranks tenth on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green — but the problem is that he ranks 104th in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee. He ranks 167th in Total Driving and 109th in Driving Distance this season. Last year, he ranked 33rd in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee. Matsuyama is the defending champion of the Genesis Invitational — but that was hosted by the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles last year. Take Aberg (7006) versus Matsuyama (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, California, for the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. The fires in Los Angeles prompted the temporary move away from the Riviera Country Club this year. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. This is the third signature event on the PGA Tour this season with 72 professionals competing this week (29 of them also competed at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open here three weeks ago). The players with the 50 lowest scores plus ties and anyone else within strokes of the lead after Round Two will make the cut. While the pros rotate between the North and South Courses for the Farmers Insurance Open for the opening two rounds before the final two rounds are played on the South Course, only the more challenging South Course will be used this week (as was the case for the 2021 US Open). Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The Par 72 South Course consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways averaging 28 yards in width. The pros will contend with 82 sand bunkers and water that is in play on one hole. The smaller greens averaging 4800 square feet consist of Poa annua grass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Rain is expected for at least the first two rounds this week. On Thursday, there is a 90% chance of rain with winds ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. On Friday, the chance of rain is 24% with winds continuing to range from 10 to 20 miles per hour.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7134) versus Keegan Bradley (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:47 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer who is listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. With the 90% chance of rain on Thursday, we are backing one of the best professionals in the world when it comes to playing through the elements. The European players on the PGA Tour usually are more comfortable handling rain and windy conditions. Lowry won his British Open a few years ago battling wind and rain. And even better is that he is in good form right now. After missing the cut here at Torrey Pines at the Farmers Insurance Open as one of the many casualties of the bad weather that developed on Day Two, he rebounded by finishing in second place two weeks ago at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He ranks fourth on the tour so far this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He ranks sixth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green. He leads the field this week in Par-5 Scoring. Lowry is one of the best ball-strikers in the world. Last year, he ranked 12th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-The-Green and 17th in Total Driving. Lowry had seven top-nine finishes on the PGA Tour last season including a pair of sixth-place results at the PGA Championship and the British Open. He has played the Farmers Insurance Open six times as a professional (which rotates with the North Course in the first two rounds) — he has made the cut four times with his best finish being a seventh-place result.

Lowry is linked with Keegan Bradley in Round One head-to-head props. Bradley is a solid veteran who I backed in the Long Shot spot many times before — but I don’t love him playing through the wind and rain on Thursday. He ranks just 91st in Driving Distance — and he ranks 120th in Club Head Speed. He is a notoriously slow starter who ranks 87th in Round One Scoring this season after ranking 147th in that category last year. He opened this season with three top 15 finishes but he took a step back two weeks ago with a tie for 65th place at the signature event at Pebble Beach. He has a nice track record at Torrey Pines throughout his career that includes three top-five results including a second-place finish. But those were all for the Farmers Insurance Open which involves the easier North Course. Bradley did not play the 2021 US Open at Torrey Pines which is exclusively on the South Course. I worry about his iron play right now. He ranks 88th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 101st in Greens-In-Regulation this season. Take Lowry (7134) versus Bradley (7133) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, California, for the Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines. The fires in Los Angeles prompted the temporary move away from the Riviera Country Club this year. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. This is the third signature event on the PGA Tour this season with 72 professionals competing this week (29 of them also competed at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open here three weeks ago). The players with the 50 lowest scores plus ties and anyone else within strokes of the lead after Round Two will make the cut. While the pros rotate between the North and South Courses for the Farmers Insurance Open for the opening two rounds before the final two rounds are played on the South Course, only the more challenging South Course will be used this week (as was the case for the 2021 US Open). Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The Kikuyu grass rough grows out to four inches. The Par 72 South Course consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways. The pros will contend with 82 sand bunkers and water that is in play on one hole. The smaller greens averaging 4800 square feet consist of Poa annua grass that measures up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Rain is expected for at least the first two rounds this week. On Thursday, there is a 90% chance of rain with winds ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour. On Friday, the chance of rain is 24% with winds continuing to range from 10 to 20 miles per hour.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7003) versus Justin Thomas (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:03 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Genesis Invitational is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. We were on Morikawa for the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weeks ago — and he disappointed with a tie for 17th place. He had taken three weeks off after opening the PGA Tour in Hawai’i with a strong second-place finish at The Sentry. He was in great form that week by finishing third in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Even more encouraging was that he finished sixth in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Morikawa can struggle with his blade — but that result was in his third-second-place finish on a golf course with Poa Annua greens where he is more comfortable. Morikawa grew up in northern California, playing courses like this, and he thrives on courses in his home state. In his last 12 professional events in California, he has a 1st place, a 2nd place, a 3rd place, a 4th place, a 6th place, and three other top 20 finishes. Morikawa is enjoying a fantastic statistical season so far this year. He leads the PGA Tour in the following metrics: Shots-Gained: Total; Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green; Fairways Hit; Greens-In-Regulation; Birdies or Better Percentage; Bogey Avoidance. He ranks second in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Off-The-Tee. Morikawa should be energized to lift a trophy this year after failing to win a tournament in 2024 — but he was ever so close with six top-five finishes on the PGA Tour. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters last season, he registered 13 straight top-25 finishes before losing touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play at the Tour Championship (and then at The Sentry) suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. He is a good fit for this course as well given some of the smallest greens on the PGA Tour which neutralizes the advantage other golfers have with their putting. He enters the week ranking fifth in the field in Shots-Gained on this course. He finished in third place here for the 2023 PGA Farmers Insurance Open and in a tie for fourth place at the 2021 US Open on the South Course here.

Morikawa is linked with Justin Thomas in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thomas was mired in a slump with his usually elite-level iron play last year — but after a tie for second place at the Zozo Championship in Japan and then a third-place finish at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas in the fall, it is safe to say that he has regained his touch. He opened the 2025 PGA Tour with a tie for 26th place at The Sentry. He followed that up with a second place at the American Express two weeks ago. He then took a step back with a tie for 46th place in the signature event at Pebble Beach two weeks ago — but he bounced back last week with a tie for sixth place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open albeit in a less competitive field than this week. Unquestionably, he is playing better — but he is still not all the way back to his previous perhaps best in the business iron play as he currently ranks 16th this year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Of concern is his driver as he ranks 104th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee — especially given the length of this course. But the biggest problem is still with his putting. He ranked 174th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year — and he is mired with a 55th ranking in that metric so far this season. Take Morikawa (7003) versus Thomas (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course — but the normally 2” rough has been grown out to 3 1/2 inches this year. The 132 professionals will contend with 67 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The average width of the fairways is 33 yards. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Last year, the average score was 69.895 per round. The last five winners at this tournament have finished from 17-under to 21-under. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.

LONG SHOT: Billy Horschel (+5500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Horschel (7139) versus Cameron Young (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:55 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Billy Horschel who is listed at +5500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Horschel is heating up by following up a tie for 21st place at The American Express with a tie for ninth place last week at Pebble Beach. He finished the tournament with a round of 64 on Sunday. Recent form is important at this event since the last 14 winners had recorded a top-ten finish in at least one of their previous five starts. The 38-year-old is a wily veteran with eight PGA Tour victories under his belt including The Memorial — so has the chops to hang with top pros like Scottie Scheffler on a Sunday. He can win birdie-fest as well as he is one of the better putters on the tour — he ranked 21st in Shots-Gained: Putting last season. He has a great track record at this event having made the cut in 11 of his 12 professional appearances at TPC Scottsdale. Amongst his five top-25 finishes here includes a tie for sixth place in 2022 and a ninth place in 2020. Course history is important here as the last nine winners at this tournament had all previously finished tied for seventh or better here.

Horschel is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head props. Young began the year with a tie for eighth place at The Senty — but he then missed the cut at the PGA The American Express before a 72nd place last week at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Young is long off-the-tee — but he is currently struggling with his irons. After ranking 45th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last year, he has dropped to 126th in that category this season. He ranks 177th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this year after ranking 87th in that metric last year. Young can struggle with his putter as well. After ranking 145th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year, he currently ranks 131st with his blade this season. He has made the cut in all three of his previous professional appearances here including an eighth place last year — but he settled for 26th and 64th place finishes in his other two trips. Take Horschel (7139) versus Young (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course — but the normally 2” rough has been grown out to 3 1/2 inches this year. The 132 professionals will contend with 67 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The average width of the fairways is 33 yards. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Last year, the average score was 69.895 per round. The last five winners at this tournament have finished from 17-under to 21-under. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7005) versus Tom Kim (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:15 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer to win this tournament is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Burns is an underrated golfer who lacks a glaring weakness in his skill set. He ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Total last year. We were on him as our Top Overlay Bet at The Sentry that began the 2025 PGA Tour — and he overcame an opening round of 72 to finish in a tie for eighth place. He finished the week gaining +3.8 strokes Off-The-Tee and another +2.9 strokes with his putter versus the field. Recent form is important at this event since the last 14 winners had recorded a top-ten finish in at least one of their previous five starts. He had six top 10s in 2024 including a tie for second place at the BMW Championship in August. He is a good fit for this course. Burns ranked 17th in Total Driving last year. He also ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he can thrive in a birdie-fest. He ranked fourth on the PGA Tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage — and so far this season he ranks eighth in that category. He also ranked third on the PGA Tour last year in total Eagles. He has a nice track record at this event with a tie for third place last year and a tie for sixth place the year before along with a tie for 22nd place in 2022. In his last two trips here, he has averaged 67.38 strokes per round. Course history is important here as the last nine winners at this tournament had all previously finished tied for seventh or better here. Burns has five victories on the PGA Tour — so he is battled-tested on Sundays.

Burns is linked with Tom Kim in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Kim comes off his best tournament of 2025 with a tie for seventh place at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last week. He previously missed the cut at the PGA The American Express after settling for 65th place at the PGA Sony Open. Kim’s strength is his accuracy with his irons — but he can struggle with his putter. He ranked 114th on tour last year in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the grainy Bermuda greens with the Poa overseer can pose a challenge for him. He has not been great with his driver this season as he ranks 106th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee after ranking 64th in that metric last season. He has two previous starts here with his best result being a tie for 17th place. Take Burns (7005) versus Kim (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course — but the normally 2” rough has been grown out to 3 1/2 inches this year. The 132 professionals will contend with 67 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The average width of the fairways is 33 yards. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Bermuda Greens oversewed with Poa Trivialis and Perennial Ryegrass that plays fast and firm while measuring up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Last year, the average score was 69.895 per round. The last five winners at this tournament have finished from 17-under to 21-under. The event will cut down to the top 65 players plus ties after Day Two.


BEST BET: Hideki Matsuyama (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Matsuyama (7003) versus Sugjai Im (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:04 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA WM Phoenix Open is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Matsuyama has enjoyed a good start to the season after beginning 2025 with a victory at The Sentry in Hawai’i. Recent form is important at this event since the last 14 winners had recorded a top-ten finish in at least one of their previous five starts. He comes off a subpar effort last week at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am when he finished tied for 48th place — but inclement weather messed with many of the professionals' games last week. After ranking third in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last season, he ranks 11th in that category so far this year. He ranks 16th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season after ranking 15th in that metric last year. He also led the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green in 2024. Course history is a critical component for predicting success at this tournament, especially given the unique crowd interaction that can throw off some of the pros. The last nine winners at this tournament had all previously finished tied for seventh or better here. Matsuyama has thrived at TPC Scottsdale with first-place finishes in 2016 and 2017. Overall, he has made the cut in 10 of his 11 visits with eight top 25s including a tie for second and fourth place to go with his two victories.

Matsuyama is linked with Sungjae Im with Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Im has been inconsistent so far this season. He has two top-four finishes — but he missed the cut at the PGA The American Express and comes off a tied for 33rd place last week at Pebble Beach. His irons are off. After ranking 99th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has dropped to 163rd in that category this season. He ranks 75th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this year after ranking 29th last year. And he may be overachieving with his putter so far this season by ranking 16th in Shots-Gained: Putting after ranking 65th in that category last year. Im has made the cut in all five of his trips here but he has never finished better than sixth place. Take Matsuyama (7003) versus Im (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event undergone some changes last year now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs play on Thursday and Friday but no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, while weather often plays a major role, light winds are expected this week.

LONG SHOT: Taylor Pendrith (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7120) versus Corey Conners (7119) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:01 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed at +4500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Pendrith is playing great golf right now. The Canadien finished in a tie for seventh place at the Farmers Insurance Open last week — it was his top-13 finish in 2023 and his 11th top-15 result since the start of last season. He ranks seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. He can compete at birdie-fests where putting is critical since he ranked fifth on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranked 13th in Birdies or Better Percentage. Pendrith last appeared at this event in 2023 when he finished in seventh place.

Pendrith is linked with Corey Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Conners finished in a tie for fifth place at The Sentry to begin the 2025 season before missing the cut the next week in Hawai’i at the Sony Open. He returns to the PGA Tour in the third event on the west coast swing with questions about his form. After finishing third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he is only 45th in that category this season. I’m not sure he is a great fit for this course. With the small greens and the 116 sand bunkers, the short game is critical for success at this event. Conners ranks 117th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green this year after ranking 124th in that category last year. Conners finished 31st in this event last year — but he missed the cut in 2018 and 2019 indicating this may not be his preferred course. Play Pendrith versus Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event underwent some changes last year now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs play on Thursday and Friday but no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, while weather often plays a major role, light winds are expected this week.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Ludvig Aberg (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7115) versus Tommy Fleetwood (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:48 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Aberg is an uber-talented 25-year-old who is on the verge of being the next superstar on the PGA Tour. I mostly avoided him during his rookie season last year since I tend to avoid investing in golfers making their professional debut on the courses on the PGA Tour. But now that he is making his second run on many of these courses, he becomes very intriguing — especially at these odds. Aberg posted three second-place finishes last year including at the Masters, the BMW Championship in the second leg of the FedEx playoffs, and at this tournament. He co-led this event after the first two rounds — and he gained almost three strokes versus the field with his putter. One of Aberg’s strengths is with his driver — and the short distance at this course neutralizes that edge of his. But Aberg is such a bright and promising talent because of his well-rounded skillset. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. He was also 21st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green - and he ranked sixth on the tour in Proximity from 75 to 100 yards which will often be his approach distance given his length off the tee. He began 2025 with a tie for fifth place at The Sentry. He was the betting favorite in his second tournament last week at the Farmers Insurance Open at PGA West — and he was the co-leader after two rounds. Then the winds hit Friday afternoon which buried most of the pros teeing off later in the day — and then he caught a stomach bug on Day Four on Saturday to settle for a tie for 42nd place. He should be pretty feisty coming into this event after that disappointing finish.

Aberg is linked with Tommy Fleetwood in Round One head-to-head props. Fleetwood enjoyed a solid season on the PGA Tour last year — headlined by his tie for third place at the Masters last April. But he has still not won an event on the PGA Tour. He missed the cut at the British Open before later settling for 20th place at the PGA Tour Championship in late August. He splits time on the DP World Tour and makes his 2025 PGA Tour debut at this event — so he may need some adjustment time to golf in the US again. As it is, he ranked 76th in Round One Scoring at PGA events last year. He is not a great fit for this course either. His accuracy off-the-tee but lack of length is a great start for Pebble Beach — but he only ranked 92nd on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Fleetwood is great with his short game which pays dividends in saving par at difficult tournaments like the Masters or the British Open — but he does not excel at the skills necessary to put up big numbers on easier courses. Fleetwood ranked 163rd on the PGA Tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage. My skepticism bears out in his course history. In preparation for the 2019 US Open, Fleetwood settled for a 45th place at the Pro-Am — and he shot three-over par in Round One. At the more challenging conditions of a US Open here later that summer, he finished in 65th place. He played the Pro-Am in 2020 when he finished tied for 31st place after an opening round of one-under par. Aberg opened with a four-under-par in Round One here last year. Take Aberg (7115) versus Fleetwood (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event underwent some changes last year now that it is a signature event with a higher payday. The once field of 156 professionals along with amateurs has been reduced to 80 professionals with no weekend cut. The amateurs play on Thursday and Friday but no longer compete on Saturday. And while this tournament rotated amongst three courses for its first three days before cutting down to 60 pros on Sunday, the 18 holes at the Monterey Peninsula County Club Shore Course have been eliminated. The famed Pebble Beach course will be used for three of the four rounds. This track has a Par of 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will host the weekend rounds. The players will contend with 116 sand bunkers. The greens are the smallest on the PGA Tour as they average 3500 square feet. Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open as well as the 2018 US Amateur Open. Spyglass Hill Golf Course will be used for one of the two opening rounds. It is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. On both courses, the rough has grown out another inch to three inches in some spots. The Pacific Ocean comes into play as a water hazard on both courses. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Lastly, while weather often plays a major role, light winds are expected this week.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Justin Thomas (7005) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:35 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa has taken the last three weeks off after opening the PGA Tour in Hawai’i with a strong second place finish in The Sentry. He was in great form that week by finishing third in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Even more encouraging was that he finished sixth in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This traditional Pro-Am event features 156 professional golfers rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This Par 72 course is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Si Woo Kim (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Woo Kim (7144) versus Kurt Kitayama (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:58 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +3500 odds. Woo Kim has something to prove this week after missing the cut last week at the PGA Sony Open. The problem was with his putter as he lost six strikes on the green. His irons were reliable for him as he ranked eighth for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is one of the best ball strikers on the tour. Last year, he ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 14th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and reaching the green in regulation will generate birdie opportunities. He is one of the few players in the field who ranked in the top 40 in the following categories last year which should translate well for this event: Shots-Gained: Approach the Green; Shots-Gained: Putting; Birdies or Better Percentage; Shots-Gained: Total at Easy Courses. Woo Kim has a great track record at this event which he won in 2021. He has three top-11s in his seven trips to this golf course as a pro with four straight top-25 results. While he struggled with his putter last week, he has never lost strokes versus the field with his blade on this golf course.

Hall is linked with Kurt Kitayama in Round One head-to-head props. Kitayama finished in 37th place at the PGA Sony Open in his 2025 debut last week. He is a solid player — but he tends to perform better on longer courses that are more challenging. He ranked 15th Longest Drives last season — but that will not help him at the trio of shorter courses. He is not a great putter — he ranked 171st in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. That contributed to him ranking just 100th in Birdies or Better Percentage. He has only played this event once in 2022 — and he missed the cut. Take Woo Kim (7144) versus Kitayama (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.  

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This traditional Pro-Am event features 156 professional golfers rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This Par 72 course is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.

LONG SHOT: Harry Hall (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hall (7022) versus Davis Thompson (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 12:14 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Harry Hall who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Hall followed up a tie for eighth place at The Sentry with another tie for eighth place at the PGA Sony Open last week. Shooting 35-under par in the two events in the Hawai’i swing of the tour is a nice way to come into this tournament which will require low scores to win. He has a hot putter right now. He has now made the cut in 11 of his last 13 tournaments including eight top-15s worldwide including a first place at the Isco Championship. Hall is an outstanding chipper — he ranked sixth in Shots-Gained: Around the Green on the PGA Tour last year. His overall game is good — he ranks third in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total. He also leads the field this week in Birdies or Better Percentage after ranking third in that category on the PGA Tour last year. This is his fourth trip to this tournament as a professional but he is very familiar with desert conditions like this as a Las Vegas resident who attended UNLV. He has made the cut in two of his three previous appearances.

Hall is linked with Davis Thompson in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thompson comes into this event in not great form. After a tie for 36th place at The Sentry, he missed the cut last week at the PGA Sony Open. He ranks just 127th this year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is not a great putter which is problematic for birdie fest like this tournament. Last year, Thompson ranked 90th in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he ranks 125th in that category so far this year. He ranked 44th in Birdies or Better Percentage last year. He did finish second at this event in 2023 but dropped to a tie for 21st last year. Take Hall (7022) versus Thompson (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and gran the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This traditional Pro-Am event features 156 professional golfers rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This Par 72 course is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. All three courses are less than 7200 yards in length. The rough goes no higher than two inches high. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend overseeded with Poa Annua and ryegrass that measure up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter.

BEST BET: Sam Burns (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7007) versus Patrick Cantlay (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:41 AM ET.

Our Best Bet on the golfer to win this tournament is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Burns is an underrated golfer who lacks a glaring weakness in his skill set. He ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Total last year. We were on him as our Top Overlay Bet at The Sentry that began the 2025 PGA Tour — and he overcame an opening round of 72 to finish in a tie for eighth place. He finished the week gaining +3.8 strokes Off-The-Tee and another +2.9 strokes with his putter versus the field. His last event in 2024 was the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas where he finished tied for 14th place which was actually his worst result in his last six tournaments. He had six top 10s in 2024 including a tie for second place at the BMW Championship in August. He is a good fit for this course. Burns ranked 17th in Total Driving last year. He also ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he can thrive in a birdie-fest. He ranked seventh on the PGA Tour last year in Birdies or Better Percentage. He has a great track record at this event with two top-sixes, a tie for 11th, and a tie for 18th place in his five trips. He shares the course record at the Nicklaus Tournament course with a round of 61. He enters this event with a chip on his shoulder after blowing the 36-hole lead last year when he settled for a tie for sixth place. Burns has five victories on the PGA Tour — so he is battled-tested on Sundays. He also taps into a nice trend at this tournament as 14 of the last 16 champions played in at least one of the events in Hawai’i earlier in January.

Burns is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay began his 2025 campaign with a tie for 15th place at The Sentry — but he struggled with irons in his approach game which continued a troubling liability in his game last year. He ranked just 122nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in 2024 after placing 16th in that metric the previous season. As a result, Cantlay only posted four top-ten finishes last year. He finished tied for 15th place at this event last year — but his form with his irons is not a good sign for a tournament that will see very low scoring. Take Burns (7007) versus Cantlay (2008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.820 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways feature 83 sand bunkers — and water comes into play on five of the holes. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week but still averaging a large 7100 square feet in size. The Bermuda greens average up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The cut after 36 holes will include the top 65 scorers plus ties. It is not uncommon for wind coming off the Pacific Ocean to play a role at this event. Wind gusts are expected to reach 20 miles per hour on Thursday.  


LONG SHOT: Taylor Pendrith (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Pendrith (7019) versus Sahith Theegala (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:00 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Taylor Pendrith who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Pendrith has been very consistent with seven straight top-25 finishes going back to 2024 after his tie for 10th place at the Sentry last week. He has also made the cut in 12 straight events — and he finished in the top 25 in nine of those tournaments. He is an intriguing option this week because he is so good with his putter. He ranked fifth in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. Twelve of the last 15 winners of this tournament finished the week ranked in the top ten in Shots-Gained: Putting. He was lukewarm with his blade last week despite finishing 10th — he finished seventh in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. If he maintains that level of iron play this week while getting his putting stroke back, he can win this tournament. He finished in 10th place at this tournament last year despite losing strokes Off-The-Tee.

Pendrith is linked with Sahith Theegala in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Theegala finished in 36th place at the Sentry last week in an event where he lost strokes versus the field in Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green, Strokes-Gained: Around the Green, and Strokes-Gained: Putting. He is not a great fit for this course. Theegala can bomb it off the tee — but accuracy is an issue. He ranked 129th in Driving Accuracy last year — and there are narrow forwards at the Waialae County Club this week. He has only made the cut once in his two trips here — and his best finish was just a tie for 48th place. Take Pendrith (7019) versus Theegala (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.820 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways feature 83 sand bunkers — and water comes into play on five of the holes. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week but still averaging a large 7100 square feet in size. The Bermuda greens average up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The cut after 36 holes will include the top 65 scorers plus ties. It is not uncommon for wind coming off the Pacific Ocean to play a role at this event. Wind gusts are expected to reach 20 miles per hour on Thursday.  


BEST BET: Corey Conners (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7005) versus Tom Kim (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:50 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Sony Open is on Corey Conners who is listed at +1400 odds to lift the trophy at DraftKings. Conners is one of the best pure ball-strikers on the PGA Tour. He ranked third on the tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranked 10th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. The weaker part of his skill set is with his short game. Chipping is not a required skill needed to thrive on this course. About two-thirds of the professionals reached the green-in-regulation last year — and the larger greens make it easier to reach the putting surface. Conners has three straight top-seven finishes after his tie for fifth place at The Sentry last week. Conners led the field in Shots-Gained: Putting which is a great sign for him this week. He also led the field in the total distance of his made putts last week. Inside of ten feet, Conners converted 59 of his 61 putts which also led the field. It was actually his normally reliable Tee-To-Green form that kept him from competing with the red-hot Hideki Matsuyama to win the tournament. He should be better with his ball-striking since those skills are considered more consistent from week-to-week. Conners ranked 10th in Shots-Gained: Total last year which looks even better since most of the top professionals left Hawai’i after last week. Eight of the last 11 winners of this tournament competed the previous week at the Sentry. Seven of the last eight winners finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. Conners has a great track record at this event. He has made the cut in all six of his previous trips here with four top 12s including a third place in 2019.

Conners is linked with Tom Kim in head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Kim did not qualify for the Sentry — so he comes to Hawai’i needing to knock off some rust having not played a professional event since the middle of December — and only three of the last 11 winners did not play at the Sentry the previous week. Kim ranked just 52nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green in 2024 — and seven of the last ten winners here finished in the top five for that week in that category. Kim’s strength is his accuracy with his irons — but he can struggle with his putter. He ranked 114th on tour last year in Shots-Gained: Putting — and the grainy Bermuda greens can pose a challenge for him. In the last 15 tournaments here at the Waialae Country Club, 12 of the first-place winners finished in the top ten in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week. This is just the second time he is playing this course — and missed the cut here last year while losing -6.7 strokes versus the field in putting. Take Conners (7005) versus Kim (7006) Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The Hawai’i start to the 2024 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Wai’alae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 68.820 per round. The rough is relatively short with it grown out to 2 1/2 inches. The fairways feature 83 sand bunkers — and water comes into play on five of the holes. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week but still averaging a large 7100 square feet in size. The Bermuda greens average up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The cut after 36 holes will include the top 65 scorers plus ties. It is not uncommon for wind coming off the Pacific Ocean to play a role at this event. Wind gusts are expected to reach 20 miles per hour on Thursday.  


TOP OVERLAY BET: Russell Henley (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Henley (7009) versus Robert MacIntyre (7010) in Tournament  Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 12:40 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value at this tournament relative to the odds is on Russell Henley who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Henley finished with six top-seven results last year including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Tour Championship. He is one of the best ball-strikers in this field this week. Last year, he ranked 30th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 30th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and most of the golfers ranked ahead of him are not competing at this event. Overall, he ranked 15th in Shots-Gained: Total. He finished tied for 30th place at the Sentry last week — and eight of the last 11 winners at this tournament competed in Hawai’i at the Sentry the previous week. He saw encouraging results with his ball-striking last week as he ranked in the top 20 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last week while ranking in the top five in accuracy. Now he returns to the Waialae Country Club where he won this tournament in 2013 in his debut on the PGA Tour. He has three other top-five finishes here since among six top-20s in his 12 trips. In his last 16 rounds at the Sentry, he has an average score of 65.94. He leads the field in Shots-Gained at this tournament in the last five events. He has finished in the top 11 in three of the last four tournaments here including a fourth-place result last year after going into the final day with the lead. He should have a chip on his shoulder to prove something this after blowing that Sunday lead.

Henley is linked with Robert MacIntyre in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. MacIntyre broke out last summer with a victory in his native land in the Genesis Scottish Open. But he is not a great fit for this shorter course which requires accuracy with the middle irons. MacIntyre ranks 113th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 57th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green — and seven of the last eight winners of this event finished the week in the top five in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. This is his second trip to Honolulu to play in this tournament — but he settled for just 52nd place last year. Take Henley (7009) versus MacIntyre (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.

LONG SHOT: Adam Scott (+3500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Scott (7119) versus Jason Day (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:15 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Adam Scott who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Scott comes off a very nice season last year when he finished in second place at both the Genesis Scottish Open and the PGA BMW Championship. He finished tied for fourth place at the PGA Tour Championship — and he comes off a third place in Dubai his most recent event. Scott is a good fit for this course. He can handle the length — he ranked 15th in Driving Distance (all drives) last year. He is a good putter on slower greens. He is also adept with his irons when dealing with uneven lies. He has played this course as a professional eight times with four top-seven finishes including a second-place result. Six Aussies have won this tournament in its 21 years — so why not Scott to make it seven?

Scott is linked with Jason Day for Round One head-to-head props. Day is a great putter but he has been struggling with his irons lately. He ranked 152nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year. In his last 36 rounds, he ranks 55th in this 60-player field in that category. That is not a good sign on a long course since distance off the tee is not his specialty. Day ranked 99th in the field last year in Total Driving and 93rd in Driving Distance. Take Scott (7119) versus Day (7120) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1100 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7006) versus Justin Thomas (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to win The Sentry is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. Morikawa took the last two and half months off the PGA Tour — so he comes in fresh. He should be energized lift a trophy this year after failing to win a tournament in 2024 — but he was ever so close with six top-five finishes on the PGA Tour. He finished second at the PGA Tour Championship (including the adjusted starting score) in Atlanta last August. Beginning with the Masters, he registered 13-straight top 25 finishes before losing his touch with his irons in the summer. He usually is one of the best iron players in the game — and his play the Tour Championship suggests he regained his touch. Last year, he ranked 42nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. If he returns to his 2022-23 form when he ranked 2nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, then he will win tournaments in 2025. He made a big improvement in his short game last year by ranking 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green after ranking 96th in that category the previous season. Putting can be an issue for Morikawa — but proficiency with his blade is less an obstacle on slower greens. With seven top-ten finishes in January throughout his career, he should come out of the gates firing. He has a great track record on this golf course as well. In his five trips to the Kapalua resort as a professional, he has never finished worse than seventh place including a second place in 2023. He botched his lead that year to Jon Rahm so getting a win now would offer some redemption — and it certainly does not hurt that Scottie Scheffler is not in the field this week due to an injury. Morikawa has family ties to Maui so taking first place has extra emotional appeal this week.

Morikawa is linked with Justin Thomas in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Thomas was mired in a slump with his usually elite-level iron play — but after a tie for second place at the Zozo Championship in Japan and then a third-place finish at the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas in the fall, it is safe to say that he has regained his touch. But the problem still is with his putting. He ranked 174th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. The average score per round at this tournament last year was 68.364 — almost five under-par. Putting problems is not the formula for success at birdies-fests. Thomas ranked 42nd in Birdies or Better Percentage last year. Morikawa, on the other hand, ranked 19th in that category. Take Morikawa (7006) versus Thomas (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The winter schedule of the 2024-25 PGA Tour begins with The Sentry (formerly the Sentry Tournament of Champions) at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Lahaina on the Island of Maui in Hawai’i. This is a Par 73 course consisting of 7596 yards with three Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. While it is the third-longest track on the PGA Tour, in practice, the course plays shorter given his sweeping vistas and elevation. The rough reaches up to 2 1/2 inches. Wind is usually a factor coming off the Pacific Ocean. The fairways are wide with 93 sand bunkers. There is no water. Rain tends to impact the event. The greens average 8722 square feet which is the largest on the PGA Tour. The putting surface consists of Bermuda greens which are considered slow since they measure up to only 11 feet on the stimpmeter. This is the first signature event of the season with a higher prize pool. The field consists of only 60 professionals consisting of PGA Tour winners last season plus the top-50 finishers in the FedEx standings. There is not a weekend cut.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7109) versus Viktor Hovland (7110) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Burns is an underrated golfer who lacks a glaring weakness in his skill set. He ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Total last year. His last event was the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas where he finished tied for 14th place which was actually his worst result in his last five tournaments. He had six top 10s in 2024 including a tie for second place at the BMW Championship in August.  He is a good fit for this course. He can handle the length — he ranked 17th in Total Driving last year. He also ranked 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he can thrive in a birdie-fest. Additionally, he ranks 20th in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green which represents an uptick in the quality of his iron play. This is his fourth trip to the Kapalua Resort with his best previous finish being a tie for 19th place.

Burns is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. We have won lots of money because of Hovland over the years — but this is not the time to back him. He has not played a professional event since the PGA Tour Championship at the end of August. He has a new coach after breaking up with his previous coach, Joe Mayo, once again (he parted ways with him early last year before reuniting again later in the year). He then broke his toe and will be playing through that injury. As it is, he has not finished better than 18th place in his four previous trips here all under better circumstances. His Achilles’ heel is his chipping game — and that is worrisome with him knocking off some rust in this event. Take Burns (7109) versus Hovland (7110) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. The Donald Ross-designed course has undergone a full restoration by Andrew Green that took ten months to complete after last year’s tournament. Previously a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards, it’s now a Par 71 after 144 yards were added to the new 7490 distance in yards. The 14th hole is now the third Par 5 hole on the course with 60 yards added to the now 580 yards to the hole. The pros will encounter 78 sand bunkers which is four more than in the past. Many of the older bunkers were relocated. Fewer trees protect the fairways. Water now impacts eight of the holes, up two from the past. The fairway grass has transitioned from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia. Last year, the greens consisted of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Now the greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass with an 11% bump in size up to 6238 square feet. The size, shape, contouring, and surrounding runoff areas of each green complex. The field consists of 30 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).

BEST BET: Ludvig Aberg to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (or "gross" score -- not taking into account the adjusted starting strokes used to determine the FedEd champion -- we want the prop for best raw score this week) (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7012) versus Rory McIlroy (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:27 PM ET.

Our Best Bet to post the best score this week (without the starting strokes) is on Ludvig Aberb who is listed at +1600 at DraftKings for this prop. I had faded Aberg several times this year (against top-level competition) since the Swedish native lacked experience in his second year on the PGA Tour — but here I am backing him as our Best Bet for the second week in a row. Usually, he is learning the intricacies of the course on the fly against peers who have years of professional experience on the track. That disadvantage was neutralized last week at the PGA BMW Championship since the Castle Pines Golf Course outside Denver had not hosted a PGA event since 2006. Aberb responded with a tie for second place — and he could have easily taken it home on Sunday if not for a couple of bad iron choices when accounting for the high altitude. I thought Aberg would handle the altitude a little better given his success in the high altitude in the DP Tour event in Switzerland (and it’s not like second place is bad). Now he plays at the East Lake Golf Club for the first time as a professional — but that disadvantage is neutralized significantly given the multitude of changes on this course after the ten-month renovation. Despite his professional inexperience with the PGA Tour regular stops, Aberg is still having a great season. He now has seven top-ten finishes (and five top-fives) in 2024 including a second place in his debut at Augusta National at the Masters in April. He also has three runner-up finishes in his last 16 tournaments. Aberg has been consistently listed as a top ten favorite by the books on the tour which is a testament to his elite skill talent. His power should play well on this long track. Aberg ranks second on the tour in Total Driving. He is also long and accurate with his irons — he ranks 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Additionally, Aberg ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which demonstrated his overall strength with his driver and irons. He also ranks 10th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage. He is the highest-seeded pro who has yet to win on the PGA Tour this year — he starts with a -5 with his adjusted score. To compete to win the Tour Championship, he needs to put up a big number. I like pros who are in spots like him since he faces less initial pressure than golfers like Scottie Scheffler or Xander Schauffele who are up top in the starting scores and expected to compete and win.

Aberg is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McIlroy is a three-time FedEx Tour Champion at East Lake — but his course experience edge is minimized this week given all the changes on the course. He played better last week with a tie 11th place at the PGA BMW Championship outside Denver — but he did not register a round in the 60s all week. From all indications, McIlroy remains in the middle of a nightmare existential crisis since his Sunday collapse at the US Open where he blew bunny putts to hand that tournament to Bryson DeChambeau. He has been a mess with his putter — and the top-four finishers at this tournament last year also finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has not had an above-average putting performance in any of his four tournaments since then. He missed the cut at the British Open which was a critical event for him. His driving was lost two weeks ago when he finished 68th of the 70 golfers in the first leg of the FedEx playoffs at the FedEd St. Jude. The analytics illuminate why he is experiencing a down season. After ranking eighth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year, he has dropped to 42nd in that category in 2024. He was 14th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green for the 2022-23 season but ranks 42nd in that area this year. He ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. He starts 4-under par with his starting strokes — but this looks like a guy looking forward to a long offseason to regroup and pick up the pieces as he begins the long road back to the Masters next April. Take Aberg (7012) versus McIlroy (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. The Donald Ross-designed course has undergone a full restoration by Andrew Green that took ten months to complete after last year’s tournament. Previously a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards, it’s now a Par 71 after 144 yards were added to the new 7490 distance in yards. The 14th hole is now the third Par 5 hole on the course with 60 yards added to the now 580 yards to the hole. The pros will encounter 78 sand bunkers which is four more than in the past. Many of the older bunkers were relocated. Fewer trees protect the fairways. Water now impacts eight of the holes, up two from the past. The fairway grass has transitioned from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia. Last year, the greens consisted of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Now the greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass with an 11% bump in size up to 6238 square feet. The size, shape, contouring, and surrounding runoff areas of each green complex. The field consists of 30 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).

TOP OVERLAY BET: Sam Burns to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (+1800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Burns (7018) versus Patrick Cantlay (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:16 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value to shoot the lowest score for the week is on Sam Burns who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings with that prop. Burns is in top form right now after following up his tie for fifth place at the PGA Fed-Ex St. Jude in the first leg of the FedEx playoffs with a tie for fifth place last week at the PGA BMW Championship. He posted a round of 65 on Sunday. He is riding a hot putter right now — he ranks second in Shots-Gained: Putting in the first two legs of the playoffs. For the season, Burns ranks 11th in Shots-Gained: Putting which is critical this week. The top-four finishers at this tournament all finished in the seven in Shots-Gained: Putting for the week. Burns also thrives on Bermuda greens — and many of the pros may struggle with the grainy TifEagle surface that is new to the course this week. Burns also ranks tied for second in Par 3 Scoring and third in Par 4 Scoring in the last two weeks. He leads all the pros in the playoffs in converting greens hit into Par Breakers. In his last four tournaments, he has gained more than 2.0 strokes versus the field with his irons. He came into the playoffs off a tie for 12th place at the PGA 3M Open. In his last 14 rounds, he has scored 67 or better six times. Overall this season, he ranks 12th in Total Driving and 11th in Shots-Gained: Total. This is his fourth visit to East Lake after coming off a tie for fourth place in raw scoring last year. He shot 67 or better in three of those four rounds last year — and only Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland matched that achievement last year (and they shared the low score for the week). Burns starts the week with a 4-under adjusted score — so he needs a big number to compete for the Tour Championship this week. I like pros who are in spots like him since he faces less initial pressure than golfers like Scottie Scheffler or Schauffele who are up top in the starting scores and expected to compete and win.

Burns is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay is playing better — but he has still experienced an inconsistent season. He comes off a solid tie for 13th place at the PGA BMC Championship after a 12th place at TPC Southwind at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in the first leg of the FedEx playoffs. But he has only finished in the top ten four times in 2024 (and only twice since mid-April). Cantlay has had success in the FedEx playoffs including winning the 2021 championship. He ranks 114th in Total Driving this season which has dragged him down to 59th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranked fourth on the tour in that category last season. He ranks 48th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing third on the tour in that category last year. He is also just 96th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green after ranking 16th in that metric last year. The pros rarely can simply flip the switch in these playoffs during this three-week span — but there are plenty of examples of hot golfers seeing their momentum carry over into the next week. We cashed with Hovland both at last year’s PGA BMW Championship and then at East Lake when shared the low score for the week with Schauffele. The full restoration at East Lake also takes some of the institutional experience edge Cantlay has at this tournament. Take Burns (7018) versus Cantlay (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. The Donald Ross-designed course has undergone a full restoration by Andrew Green that took ten months to complete after last year’s tournament. Previously a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards, it’s now a Par 71 after 144 yards were added to the new 7490 distance in yards. The 14th hole is now the third Par 5 hole on the course with 60 yards added to the now 580 yards to the hole. The pros will encounter 78 sand bunkers which is four more than in the past. Many of the older bunkers were relocated. Fewer trees protect the fairways. Water now impacts eight of the holes, up two from the past. The fairway grass has transitioned from Meyer Zoysia to Zorro Zoysia. Last year, the greens consisted of Bermuda grass that averages 5600 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Now the greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass with an 11% bump in size up to 6238 square feet. The size, shape, contouring, and surrounding runoff areas of each green complex. The field consists of 30 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 30 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that (for example, “gross score”). The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring).

LONG SHOT: Billy Horschel to "Win Without Starting Strokes" (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Horschel (7043) versus Robert MacIntyre (7044) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 11:55 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to post the lowest score this week is on Billy Horschel who is listed at +3000 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Horschel followed up his tie for second place at the British Open last month with a tie for seventh place at the Wyndham Championship. He opened up in the FedEx playoffs with a tie for 10th place at the FedEx St. Jude. He followed that up last week with a tie for 22nd place at the PGA BMW Championship after his second round of 74 held him back from a better result. The 37-year-old has still finished in the top 25 in 15 of his 27 tournaments this year — and he has six top-ten results during that stretch which included winning the Corales Puntacana Championship in April. The Florida native thrives when putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks 17th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season — and the top-four finishers at this tournament last year also finished the week in the top seven in putting. Horschel loves playing at East Lake where he won the Tour Championship in 2014 and finished in second place in 2018 amongst his six trips. He is perhaps playing as well right now as he was when to lifted the trophy here ten years ago. In his last five tournaments, he has gained six strokes on average versus the field. He loves playing at Donald Ross-designed courses — and he has extra motivation this week since he is on the bubble to make the President’s Team for the United States. Horschel ranks 21st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and the balance in his game will help him on this course.

Horschel is linked with Robert MacIntyre in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. MacIntyre began the FedEx playoffs with a tie for seventh place at the FedEx St. Jude — but he withdrew last week from the PGA BMW Championship last week due to back pain. Coming in with back issues is far from ideal. After winning the Genesis Scottish Open last month, he settled for a tie for 50th place at the British Open before missing the cut at the PGA Wyndham Championship. He admitted he partied hard after winning his home nation’s national championship — so that may explain his drop off in form ever since. He has never played East Lake as a professional — and I’m not sure if his back limited his practice round schedule this week. What I do know is that he ranks 107th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and Ross-designed courses privilege precious with iron play. Take Horschel (7043) versus MacIntyre (7044) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship at the Castle Pines Golf Course in Castle Rock, Colorado located south of Denver. There are two unique dynamics at play this week for a PGA Tour event. First, the professionals will have to contend with the high altitude of 6000 square feet above sea level — and given the layout, the golfers will grapple with a 400-foot drop and rise in elevation throughout the course. Second, the last time this course hosted a PGA Tour event was the International tournament in 2006. Only Adam Scott and Jason Day have played this course in a professional environment — so this is one of those rare moments where the course offers close to a true neutral site in regards to course history and experience. There have been significant renovations since that time. This is a Par 72 track consisting of a massive 8130 yards. That length needs to be contextualized with the high altitude — the general rule is that the ball travels 10% longer at 6000 square feet. In practice, the course projects to play like a track ranging from 7250 to 7450 yards. Three of the four Par 5 holes are of at least 600 yards. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus. Pine trees protect narrow fairways of 26 to 30 yards. Sand bunkers are scattered near the greens. Water impacts ten of the holes. The Kentucky bluegrass rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface averages 5600 square feet consisting of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua that measures perhaps past 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The top thirty golfers in the FedEx standings after this event advance to the Tour Championship in the last leg of the playoffs next week at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+1400 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7144) versus Rory McIlroy (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 1:10 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is Collin Morikawa who is at +1400 odds at DraftKings. I wrestled with either Morikawa or Wyndham Clark for one of my top two golfers to endorse. Morikawa lost -4.7 strokes in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus the SG: Approach-the-Green) — so his form is not ideal. Clark is a member of the Castle Pines Golf Course after being a high school superstar golfer literally down the street — so he has tons of experience at the course and playing in this altitude. But odds are important — it defines what I am looking to endorse in a Top Overlay Bet. Clark opened the week at +3500 odds in many spots — and he is now at +2500 odds at DraftKings. The betting market has already reduced the price on Clark given his course familiarity — and that edge only counts for so much. On the other hand, Morikawa would likely be priced in the +1000 range to win this tournament this week before his recent slide with his irons. So, this situation is textbook Overlay when it comes to value. Admittedly, Morikawa has seen his Ball-Striking numbers decline in three straight events. And while he finished 22nd last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he was just 68th of the 70 professionals in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. What a strange turn of events recently. Outside of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, probably no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 24 in 13 straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in the last nine events of his last 11 events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a 24th-place finish at the Olympics last month — but he did enjoy his best tournament in terms of the Shots-Gained: Approach the Green data all season in Paris. His cumulative results at the four major championships this season were second only to Scheffler. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play this year. Even with his recent slump, he remains only one of three golfers this week that ranks in the top 15 in the field in both Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. He has thrived at Nicklaus courses with victories at Montreaux, Muirfield Village, and the Concession previously — and his fourth place at the PGA Championship was at Valhalla which Nicklaus also designed. Morikawa also has plenty of experience playing in higher altitudes — his usual practice course is at the Summit Club on the north side of town in Las Vegas (I’m south side) where the altitude is 3000 square feet above sea level. Morikawa ranks fourth in the FedEx standings as well — so he is plenty motivated for a big week which can help position him to win the playoffs next week with the benefit of the adjusted strokes.

Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Round One head-to-head props. The final reason to choose Morikawa over Clark (but I may still take a flier on Clark as a fourth golfer this week) is that he has a plum head-to-head matchup. If Morikawa remains in a slump, at least he is matched with a golfer in the middle of a nightmare existential crisis. He finished 68th of the 70 golfers last week at the FedEd St. Jude. Since his Sunday collapse at the US Open where he blew bunny putts to hand that tournament to Bryson DeChambeau, he has been a mess with his putter. He has not had an above-average putting performance in any of his four tournaments since then. He missed the cut at the British Open which was a critical event for him. His driving was lost last week. Now he plays at a course where he lacks experience and adds the uncertainty of adjusting to the altitude. His lack of confidence does not bode well for these unusual circumstances — especially in Round One. On the other hand, Morikawa ranks third on the PGA Tour in Round One scoring — and he has a history of good scoring on Thursdays at Nicklaus-designed courses. He was fifth after Day One at the PGA Championship at Valhalla earlier this year. He has enjoyed two solo leads after Day at the Memorial at Muirfield Village — and he was in third place after the first 18 holes this year. Take Morikawa (7144) versus McIlroy (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship at the Castle Pines Golf Course in Castle Rock, Colorado located south of Denver. There are two unique dynamics at play this week for a PGA Tour event. First, the professionals will have to contend with the high altitude of 6000 square feet above sea level — and given the layout, the golfers will grapple with a 400-foot drop and rise in elevation throughout the course. Second, the last time this course hosted a PGA Tour event was the International tournament in 2006. Only Adam Scott and Jason Day have played this course in a professional environment — so this is one of those rare moments where the course offers close to a true neutral site in regards to course history and experience. There have been significant renovations since that time. This is a Par 72 track consisting of a massive 8130 yards. That length needs to be contextualized with the high altitude — the general rule is that the ball travels 10% longer at 6000 square feet. In practice, the course projects to play like a track ranging from 7250 to 7450 yards. Three of the four Par 5 holes are of at least 600 yards. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus. Pine trees protect narrow fairways of 26 to 30 yards. Sand bunkers are scattered near the greens. Water impacts ten of the holes. The Kentucky bluegrass rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface averages 5600 square feet consisting of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua that measures perhaps past 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The top thirty golfers in the FedEx standings after this event advance to the Tour Championship in the last leg of the playoffs next week at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

LONG SHOT: Matt Fitzpatrick (+6000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fitzpatrick (7129) versus Corey Conners (7130) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 11:55 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Matt Fitzpatrick who is listed at +6000 odds at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick needs a big week since he ranks 36th in the FedEx standings — so he will be playing to win this week rather than preserve a status for next week. He has two victories on the PGA Tour including the 2022 US Open — so he has beaten the best players in the world. He also has seven victories worldwide including winning twice at the European Masters on the DP Tour. The Crans-Sur-Sierre course in Switzerland is 1500 square meters above sea level which translates into about 4900 square feet. Besides those victories in 2017 and 2018, he also had a second-place result there in 2015, a third-place finish last year, and a seventh place in 2017. Fitzpatrick also finished in a tie for 12th place at the Summit Club in Las Vegas on his resume so it is not just the European altitude where he has demonstrated aptitude. Fitzpatrick enjoys the intellectual challenge of the game — so the need to crunch the numbers regarding his distance expectations with the altitude changes plays into the strengths of his game. He was out early on Monday studying this course. Fitzpatrick also tends to play well on Nicklaus-designed courses. He won at Harbour Town last season. He finished in third place at Muirfield Village in 2020 where he also finished in ninth place last year and fifth place earlier this year. He comes off a solid 18th place at the FedEx St. Jude in the opening leg of the playoffs.

Fitzpatrick is linked with Corey Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Conners has been remarkably consistent this season — but his tie for 50th place at the TPC Southwind last week at the FedEx St. Jude was his worst result since a tie for 57th place at the PGA Sony Open on the Hawai’i swing of the tour way back in January. That result had him fall to 33rd in the FedEx standings which means he needs a result — so the pressure is on. As opposed to Fitzpatrick who seems energized by the challenge of the high altitude, this course does not seem like a great fit for the Canadian. Conners ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — but he is not long off-the-tee or as effective with his long irons. He ranks 83rd in Driving Distance. He also ranks 51st in Shots Gained: Approach-the-Green from 200 or more yards away from the hole. Furthermore, he is not steady with his short game which may come into play if nerves play a role in his attempt to make the top 30 to play next week. Conners ranks 107th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and he ranks 127th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Fitzpatrick (7129) versus Conners (7130) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The second leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the BMW Championship at the Castle Pines Golf Course in Castle Rock, Colorado located south of Denver. There are two unique dynamics at play this week for a PGA Tour event. First, the professionals will have to contend with the high altitude of 6000 square feet above sea level — and given the layout, the golfers will grapple with a 400-foot drop and rise in elevation throughout the course. Second, the last time this course hosted a PGA Tour event was the International tournament in 2006. Only Adam Scott and Jason Day have played this course in a professional environment — so this is one of those rare moments where the course offers close to a true neutral site in regards to course history and experience. There have been significant renovations since that time. This is a Par 72 track consisting of a massive 8130 yards. That length needs to be contextualized with the high altitude — the general rule is that the ball travels 10% longer at 6000 square feet. In practice, the course projects to play like a track ranging from 7250 to 7450 yards. Three of the four Par 5 holes are of at least 600 yards. The course was designed by Jack Nicklaus. Pine trees protect narrow fairways of 26 to 30 yards. Sand bunkers are scattered near the greens. Water impacts ten of the holes. The Kentucky bluegrass rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface averages 5600 square feet consisting of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua that measures perhaps past 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The top thirty golfers in the FedEx standings after this event advance to the Tour Championship in the last leg of the playoffs next week at the East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta.

BEST BET: Ludvig Aberg (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Aberg (7014) versus Patrick Cantlay (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 10:50 AM ET.

Our Best Bet on the golfer to win the PGA BMW Championship is on Ludvig Aberg who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. I have faced Aberg several times this year (against top-level competition) since the Swedish native lacked experience in his second year on the PGA Tour. Usually, he is learning the intricacies of the course on the fly against peers who have years of professional experience on the track. Now that this disadvantage is neutralized — and, in fact, while the other pros deal with confronting the unknown lacking past experience, this week is simply "situation normal" for Aberg for the last year or so. Despite his professional inexperience with the PGA Tour regular stops, Aberg is still having a great season. He has six top-ten finishes in 2024 including a second place in his debut at Augusta National at the Masters in April. He also finished fifth at the Memorial which is notable since that is also a Nicklaus-designed course. Aberg has been consistently listed as a top ten favorite by the books on the tour which is a testament to his elite skill talent. His power should play well on this long track. Aberg ranks third on the tour in Total Driving. He is also long and accurate with his irons — he ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Additionally, Aberg ranks 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which demonstrated his overall strength with his driver and irons. After a tie for 18th place representing Sweden in the Olympics, Aberg finished tied for 40th last week at the FedEx St. Jude in the first left of the three-week playoff run. Aberg has proven himself when dealing with the challenge of adjusting to playing in high altitude. He won the DP Tour European Masters event last year at the Crans-Sur-Sierre in Switzerland at an altitude of 1500 meters (translating into about 4900 square feet). He currently ranks seventh in the FedEx standings — so a big week would be a big help in seizing the starting strokes advantage for the final leg of the playoffs next week at East Lake in Atlanta.

Aberg is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay has experienced an inconsistent season. He comes off a solid tie for 12th place at TPC Southwind at the FedEx St. Jude Championship — but he has only finished in the top ten four times in 2024 (and only twice since mid-April). Cantlay has had success in the FedEx playoffs along with Nicklaus-designed courses. But given the uncertainty of the altitude and a course he lacks professional experience at, I am reluctant to expect his ball-striking skills to suddenly regain his past form. He ranks 133rd in Total Driving this season. He ranks 60th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is also just 95th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Take Aberg (7014) versus Cantlay (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the third straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s and nine dog-leg holes. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. There are 75 sand bunkers that the 70 professionals who qualified for the playoffs will navigate. The Bermuda grass rough will be up to three inches high this week. The fairways consist of Zoysia grass. The Bermuda greens average only 4300 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. There will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. The average score last year was 68.636 per round.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7126) versus Rory McIlroy (7125) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 10:45 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the PGA Fed-Ex St. Jude Championship is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. Outside of Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele, probably no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 24 in 12 straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in the last nine events of his last ten events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a 24th-place finish at the Olympics two weeks ago — but he did enjoy his best tournament in terms of the Shots-Gained: Approach the Green data all season in Paris. He has gained more than six shots versus the field in Approach the Green in his last two events. His cumulative results at the four major championships this season were second only to Scheffler. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play this year. Morikawa is a great fit for this course especially since his relative lack of power off the tee will not put him at a potential competitive disadvantage. He ranks fourth on the tour in Driving Accuracy and he ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Nine of the last 12 winners at TPC Southwind led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week. The weakness of his game is his putter — but he went into the Olympics ranked 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting since the PGA Championship. The smaller greens this week should help Morikawa as well since they mitigate the relative disadvantage he may face compared to his peers, who are better putters and can nail long putts. Overall, Morikawa ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Total and fourth in the FedEx standings. He is a great fit for TPC Southwind since the narrow fairways put a premium on accuracy off-the-tee to avoid the sand and water hazards. He finished 26th or better in all four of his previous trips at this course including a tie for fifth place and a tie for 13th place in the last two years since this event has become the first leg of the FedEx playoffs.

Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Round One head-to-head props. Ever since McIlroy endured his epic Sunday collapse at the US Open, he has been shaky. He has admitted that he has struggled with his mental game. He is a three-time FedEx champion so he values this event — but the same was being said about the British Open where he missed the cut. He did follow that up with a tie for fifth place at the Olympics — but he was never really in contention to win the Gold Medal. McIlroy has not been as adept with his irons this year. After ranking eighth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green for the 2022-23 season, he has dropped to 28th in that metric in 2024. He did finish in a tie for third place at this tournament last year — but given his mental state, he may be pacing himself for the next three weeks to make sure he is peaking at East Lake for the Tour Championship at the end of the Month. Morikawa, on the other hand, still is hungry to register his first PGA Tour victory of the season. Take Morikawa (7126) versus McIlroy (7125) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the third straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s and nine dog-leg holes. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. There are 75 sand bunkers that the 70 professionals who qualified for the playoffs will navigate. The Bermuda grass rough will be up to three inches high this week. The fairways consist of Zoysia grass. The Bermuda greens average only 4300 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. There will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. The average score last year was 68.636 per round.

LONG SHOT: Billy Horschel (+4500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Horschel (7117) versus Justin Thomas (7118) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 9:55 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Billy Horschel who is listed at +4500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Horschel followed up his tie for second place at the British Open last month with a tie for seventh place last week at the Wyndham Championship. The 37-year-old has finished in the top 25 in 13 of his 25 tournaments this year — and he has five top ten results during that stretch which included winning the Corales Puntacana Championship in April. The Florida native thrives when putting on Bermuda greens. He is a great fit for this course since he is accurate off-the-tee. Horschel ranks 22nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total — and he ranks 37th in Driving Accuracy. Horschel is plenty familiar with TPC Southwind where he has played as a professional 12 times. He has five top-ten finishes here in his career highlighted by a fourth-place result — and he has seven top-25 results here overall. In his last nine trips here, he has six top 20 results with four top tens.

Horschel is linked with Justin Thomas in Round One head-to-head props. Thomas has played better this year after losing his form last season — but he remains too inconsistent. His last event was the British Open where he finished tied for 31st place — and that was his second-best finish in his last five tournaments. After taking a step or two back with his irons last year, he is back up to ranking 15th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this year — but that is still not back to his ranking of eighth in that category for the 2021-22 season. But the other areas of his game remain lagging. He is near the very bottom in the playoff field this week by ranking 142nd in Driving Accuracy which is an ominous number given all the sand and water hazards at TPC Southwind. Thomas ranks just 120th in Greens-In-Regulation as it is this season — and three of the top finishers at this tournament last year finished in the top nine or better in that category for the week. Thomas won at this course in 2020 when it was a World Golf Championship event — but he was in much better form that year. Take Horschel (7117) versus Thomas (7118) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The first leg of the three weeks of the FedEx playoffs begins on Thursday with the FedEx St.Jude Championship. TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee hosts this event for the third straight year after a long history of hosting major tournaments. This a Par 70 course consisting of 7243 yards with only two Par 5s and nine dog-leg holes. The fairways average a narrow 25 yards in width — this track ranks in the top ten hardest fairways to hit on the tour. Water comes into play on 11 of the holes — with four impacting off-the-tee — with fairway bunkers impacting eight more of the Par 4 or Par 5 tests. There are 75 sand bunkers that the 70 professionals who qualified for the playoffs will navigate. The Bermuda grass rough will be up to three inches high this week. The fairways consist of Zoysia grass. The Bermuda greens average only 4300 square feet which will measure up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. There will be no cuts in the first playoff tournament so the 70 golfers competing this week are all guaranteed to play the weekend. The top 50 players this week advance to the BMW Championship next week. The average score last year was 68.636 per round.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7111) versus Tom Kim (7112) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:50 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood comes off winning the Silver Medal at the Olympics two weeks ago. He may be winless on the PGA Tour — but he has seven victories on the DP Tour. He is in great form after making the cut in 17 of his 19 events in 2024. He has finished in the top 26 in nine of the last 12 tournaments worldwide. In those events, he has five top 10 results and nine top 20s. He played well at all three major championships this year with a third place at the Masters followed up with a 26th at the PGA Championship and a 16th place at the US Open. He did not make the cut at the British Open -- but he was saddled with the brutal morning-afternoon schedule for the first two days that got the worst of the bad weather that week. He ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in Bogey Avoidance which will help this week with low scores expected. He also ranks eighth on the tour in Driver Accuracy which is an essential skill at TPC Southwind. Fleetwood finished in a tie for third place at this tournament last year with all four of his rounds 68 or lower. This is his fifth trip to this tournament where he also finished in fourth place in 2019.

Fleetwood is linked with Tom Kim in Round One head-to-head props. Kim’s profile is similar to Fleetwood's — both are accurate but not long off-the-tee. But Kim ranks 26th in Driving Accuracy. He also ranks 63rd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he ranks 86th in Greens-In-Regulation. Three of the top-five finishers last year at this tournament finished ninth or better for the week in Greens-In-Regulation. Kim has played in this event the last two years where he finished in a tie for 24th place and a tie for 13th place. Like Fleetwood, Kim missed the cut at the British Open before a solid eighth-place finish in the Olympics. Across the board, the veteran Fleetwood compares favorably to the talented Kim — but Fleetwood has the additional motivation in wanting to finally earn his first victory on the PGA Tour. Take Fleetwood (7111) versus Kim (71112) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place with the Wyndham Championship hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.467 which was a ten-year high. Seven of the last eight winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. Hurricane Debby caused Round One to be pushed back a day to Friday. The start time is pushed back at least two hours to 8:50 AM ET with more delays possible given the weather. Rain is expected on Friday before conditions should improve over the weekend in what will remain a wet and soft course.

BEST BET: Brian Harman (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Harman (7133) versus Si Woo Kim (7134) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:34 PM ET at the earliest given the potential for more delays.

Our Best Bet to win the Wyndham Championship is on Brian Harman who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Harman is not the longest driver on the tour — but he thrives on shorter, positional courses like the Sedgefield Country Club. He comes in rested having not played since settling for a tie of 60th place at the British Open — and he did gain +3.4 Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee that week which will be important this week. He played well the previous week at the Genesis Scottish Open when he finished in a tie for 21st place while gaining +6.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Harman won last year’s British Open in the fog. He can handle bad elements — and his late afternoon tee-time increases his chances of playing in better weather. Harman is enjoying a good year with ten top-25 finishes in 2024 and three top 21s or better in three of his last four events. He finished in second place at THE PLAYERS Championship earlier this year. Harman ranks 147th in Driving Distance this season — but taking this element out of place elevates his chances. In his last 50 rounds, Harman is the only golfer in the field who ranks in the top 20 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. Most of the elite players are taking the week off after the Olympics and before the FedEx playoffs starting next week -- and that makes his 18th ranking in Shots-Gained: Total more impressive. Harman has played this course ten times as a professional with a third place and sixth place highlighting his course history.

Harman is linked with Si Woo Kim in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Woo Kim won this tournament in 2016 — and he has three more top-five finishes at the Sedgefield Country Club in his career. Like Harman, he fits the course since he is accurate but not long off the tee. But he is certainly not automatic — he has missed the cut in two of his eight previous trips here as a professional while only finishing in a tie for 33rd place here last year. He comes into this event with a solid yet unspectacular form. He settled for a tie for 43rd place at the British Open in his last event. He has made the cut in six straight tournaments — but he has only finished better than 26th place only once during that stretch. Woo Kim ranks only 101st in Greens-In-Regulation in 2024 — and five of the top six finishers at this tournament finished in 12th place or better in that category last year. Woo Kim also struggles with his blade — he ranks 150th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. If Woo Kim is not good with his putter this week, he will struggle once again on a course he has performed well at. Take Harman (7133) versus Woo Kim (7134) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.   

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place with the Wyndham Championship hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.467 which was a ten-year high. Seven of the last eight winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. Hurricane Debby caused Round One to be pushed back a day to Friday. The start time is pushed back at least two hours to 8:50 AM ET with more delays possible given the weather. Rain is expected on Friday before conditions should improve over the weekend in what will remain a wet and soft course.

LONG SHOT: Robert MacIntyre (+5000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: MacIntyre (7137) versus Keegan Bradley (7111) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:43 PM ET at the earliest given the potential for more delays.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Robert MacIntyre who is listed at +5000 odds at DraftKings. MacIntyre has two wins this season — and what the RBC Heritage and Genesis Scottish Open have in common is that they are short positional courses like the Sedgefield Country Club. He settled for a tie for 50th place at the British Open the week after winning the Scottish Open — so he comes into this tournament rested. MacIntyre ranks 37th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 30th in Shots-Gained: Total — and those ranks take on more weight when considering that most of the top pros are taking the week off before the playoffs start next week. He has played this tournament once in 2021 when he finished tied for 65th place — so he has experience on the course.

MacIntyre is linked with Keegan Bradley in Round One head-to-head props. Bradley followed up missing the cut at the British Open with a tie for 48th place at the 3M Open. Henley has one top ten this year when he finished in second place at the Charles Schwab Challenge which is considered a second-tier event. The analytics indicate he is simply a middling player this season. He ranks 63rd in Driver Accuracy and 60th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks 47th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 94th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. He also ranks 113th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has not played this tournament since 2017 when he finished in 42nd place after a 40th place the year before. Finally, Bradley ranks 158th in Round One scoring. Take MacIntyre (7137) versus Bradley in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s final event before the FedEx Playoffs next week takes place with the Wyndham Championship hosted once again at the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina. This is a Par 70 course designed by Donald Ross consisting of 7131 yards. The average score last year at this event was 69.467 which was a ten-year high. Seven of the last eight winners posted a score of 20 under par or better — so lower scores are expected. Only two of the holes are Par 5s. Eight of the Par 4 holes measure 400 to 450 yards in length. The fairways are protected by trees with the rough being up to 2 1/2 inches in length. The putting surface consists of Bermuda grass that averages up to 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 6500 square feet. Hurricane Debby caused Round One to be pushed back a day to Friday. The start time is pushed back at least two hours to 8:50 AM ET with more delays possible given the weather. Rain is expected on Friday before conditions should improve over the weekend in what will remain a wet and soft course. 

TOP OVERLAY BET: Aaron Rai (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rai (7015) versus Christian Bezuidenholt (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 2:21 PM ET at the earliest given the potential for more delays.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Aaron Rai who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Rai settled for a tie for 75th place at the British Open in his last event — but he had finished in the top 19 or better in five straight tournaments going into that tournament. He finished no worse than a tie for ninth in his previous three tournaments before the weather got him at the British Open. That said, Rai has demonstrated he can grind things out in bad weather since he has three top-ten finishes this season in the slop where the weather conditions accommodated preferred lies by the rules. His afternoon tee-times also increase the likelihood that he will avoid some of the rain. Rai is a great fit for this course. He ranks third on the tour in Driving Accuracy. He is eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Since June, he leads the field in Good Drives Gained. Rai also ranks sixth in Greens-In-Regulation this year — and five of the top six finishers at this event last year finished in the top 12 in that metric. Rai is a well-rounded pro who ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. This is his third time playing this course as a pro — and while he has not finished better than 71st place — his second-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic at the Detroit Country Club earlier this summer is strong evidence he can thrive at a Ross-designed short, positional course.

Rai is linked with Christian Bezuidenholt in Tournament Matchup heads head-to-head props. Bezuidenolt comes off representing South Africa in the Olympics last week — but now this is a less than advantageous trip back to the States from Paris. Bezuidenholt thrived on the greens where he gained +7.3 strokes versus the field — but it will be hard to expect similar results. He lost -3.8 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Bezuidenholt is not a great fit for the Sedgefield Country Club. He struggles with his accuracy off-the-tee — he ranks 87th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy. He ranks 120th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He also ranks just 46th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 164th in Greens-In-Regulation. Bezuidenholt has made the cut in all three of his previous trips to Greensboro to play in this tournament — but he has never finished better than 37th place. Take Rai (7015) versus Bezuidenholt (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour takes the week in lieu of the Olympics golf event at Le Golf National in Paris, about 12 miles south of the Eiffel Tour. This course is the regular host of the FedEx Open de France on the European Tour — and it was the track for the 2018 Ryder Cup. With three Par 5s, the par is set at 71 consisting of 7174 yards. With narrow fairways and plenty of punitive hazards for missing the short grass, accuracy is privileged over length off the tee. The rough consists of ryegrass of up to 2 1/2 inches in length before a second tier consisting of fescue grass of up to 3 1/2 inches. Water impacts ten of the holes and there are 51 strategically placed sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua grass. Sixty golfers are in the field with the potential ties for the Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals resolved by a playoff.

BEST BET: Jon Rahm (+1000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rahm (7008) versus Ludvig Aberg (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:11 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the Gold Medal in the Olympics is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings. Rahm has endured a disappointing season which included him pulling out of the US Open after suffering a foot injury on the practice — but he is in great form as the summer comes to a close. The week before the British Open, he finished in 10th place at the LIV Tour event in Spain while leading the field that week in Greens-In-Regulation. Then despite being stuck in the brutal Thursday AM/Friday PM swing at the British Open that ruined most of the scores for the professionals, Rahm battled the terrible weather and finished a very impressive tie for seventh place. He followed that up last week by winning the LIV Tour event in London. Rahm will be very motivated to win the gold this week. He had to miss the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo after testing positive for COVID. Said Rahm about what these Olympics mean to him: “It’s a dream come true. A dream that became a possibility only eight years ago for most of us, so it’s quite special. It’s one of the most impressive feats in sports to earn a gold medal. It’s something that very few people in history can do. To add to your country’s medal count is something special.” Rahm has more experience at Le Golf National than almost all the other golfers in the field. He beat Tiger Woods in their single competition in the 2018 Ryder Cup. In 2016, he finished in a tie for 10th place at the Open de France on the DP European Tour before placing in a tie for fifth place the next year. With his elite driver and skilled iron play, he should put up low numbers despite his driving distance not being a big help this week. Rahm has 11 first places worldwide in his career including eight on the PGA Tour. He won the 2021 US Open and last year’s Masters. He has been disappointed with his results at major championships since moving to the LIV Tour — but winning a Gold Medal for Spain this week would flip the narrative on his season.

Rahm is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Like everyone else, I love Aberg’s potential — but he is at a competitive disadvantage most weeks since he has not played most of these courses as a professional. Despite the short odds he has every week, he has not won an event on the PGA Tour this year. He is making his professional debut at Le Golf National. He has struggled at the major championships after his second place at the Masters in April. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the British Open. And while he was in contention at the US Open, a pair of rounds of 73 pushed him back down to a tie for 12th place. He ranks 89th on the tour in Round Four scoring which is not a good sign with most of the top golfers in the world competing this week. Finally, his skill set is not a great fit for the demands of this course. Aberg ranks 54th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy so he may be dealing with the various hazards more often than his competitors. Take Rahm (7008) versus Aberg (7007) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour takes the week in lieu of the Olympics golf event at Le Golf National in Paris, about 12 miles south of the Eiffel Tour. This course is the regular host of the FedEx Open de France on the European Tour — and it was the track for the 2018 Ryder Cup. With three Par 5s, the par is set at 71 consisting of 7174 yards. With narrow fairways and plenty of punitive hazards for missing the short grass, accuracy is privileged over length off the tee. The rough consists of ryegrass of up to 2 1/2 inches in length before a second tier consisting of fescue grass of up to 3 1/2 inches. Water impacts ten of the holes and there are 51 strategically placed sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua grass. Sixty golfers are in the field with the potential ties for the Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals resolved by a playoff.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Collin Morikawa (+1000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7010) versus Ludvig Aberg (7009) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:11 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet to win the Gold Medal at the Olympics is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1000 odds at DraftKings. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, perhaps no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 23 in 11 straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in his last nine events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a tie for 16th place in his last start at the British Open. His cumulative results at the four major championships this season are second only to Scheffler — and he is behind only Scheffler by gaining over 2.0 strokes per round versus the field in Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Tee-to-Green) since the PGA Championship. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play. Morikawa is a great fit for this course especially since his relative lack of power off the tee will not put him at a potential competitive disadvantage. He ranks fourth on the tour in Driving Accuracy and he ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks third on the Tour in Distance from the Edge of the Fairway — so when he does miss, it is not by much so he has a better chance to avoid the larger fescue rough. The weakness of his game is his putter — but he ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting since the PGA Championship. Morikawa should have a chip on his shoulder this week after settling for a Bronze Medal in the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo after losing in a playoff. We have been on Morikawa several times this summer — and while he has to be disappointed with not winning a tournament this year, taking home the gold this week would make it all worth it. When considering that Scheffler is listed at +350 and Xander Schauffele is at +550 coming off his British Open win as he defends his 2021 Gold Medal, Morikawa at a +1000 price offers great value.

Morikawa is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Like everyone else, I love Aberg’s potential — but he is at a competitive disadvantage most weeks since he has not played most of these courses as a professional. Despite the short odds he has every week, he has not won an event on the PGA Tour this year. He is making his professional debut at Le Golf National. He has struggled at the major championships after his second place at the Masters in April. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship and the British Open. And while he was in contention at the US Open, a pair of rounds of 73 pushed him back down to a tie for 12th place. He ranks 89th on the tour in Round Four scoring which is not a good sign with most of the top golfers in the world competing this week. Finally, his skill set is not a great fit for the demands of this course. Averb ranks 54th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy so he may be dealing with the various hazards more often than his competitors. Take Morikawa (7010) versus Aberg (7009) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour takes the week in lieu of the Olympics golf event at Le Golf National in Paris, about 12 miles south of the Eiffel Tour. This course is the regular host of the FedEx Open de France on the European Tour — and it was the track for the 2018 Ryder Cup. With three Par 5s, the par is set at 71 consisting of 7174 yards. With narrow fairways and plenty of punitive hazards for missing the short grass, accuracy is privileged over length off the tee. The rough consists of ryegrass of up to 2 1/2 inches in length before a second tier consisting of fescue grass of up to 3 1/2 inches. Water impacts ten of the holes and there are 51 strategically placed sand bunkers. The putting surface consists of a Bentgrass blend with Poa Annua grass. Sixty golfers are in the field with the potential ties for the Gold, Silver, and Bronze medals resolved by a playoff.

LONG SHOT: Corey Conners (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Conners (7112) versus Min Woo Lee (7111) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 3:33 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win a Gold Medal is on Corey Conners who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Conners was in contention going into the weekend at the British Open before struggling on that Saturday with a round of 80. He did rebound with a nice round of 68 the next day to finish in a tie for 25th place. Conners is one of the most underrated professionals on the PGA Tour. He has not missed a cut in 13 months. In his last 16 tournaments, he has 11 top-25 finishes — and he has three top tens in his last six events. He ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. His game is a great fit for the demands of this course. Conners ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh on Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has two victories on the PGA Tour — and he would love to bring home the gold for Canada.

Conners is linked with Min Woo Lee in Round One head-to-head props. Woo Lee followed up a tie for second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with a tie for third place at the Scottish Open. But then he missed the cut at the British Open. Woo Lee is like the mirror opposite of Conners — and they tend to perform well at distinctly different courses. Woo Lee’s strength is his power with his driver — he ranks fourth on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance. But he is only 98th in Driving Accuracy. Then Woo Lee is 142nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is just 140th in Greens-In-Regulation. Woo Lee represents Australia this week — but he is not likely to be amongst the leaders on a course that he has not played as a professional. Take Conners (7112) versus Woo Lee (7111) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States for just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas, The 156 profs will also contend with 72 bunkers. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the sixth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. The average winning score in the first five years here has been 19 under par. The tournament affectionately describes the tournament as “birdies and train wrecks.”

LONG SHOT: Erik van Rooyen (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: van Rooyen (7136) versus J.T. Poston (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 shots if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 1:43 PM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on van Rooyen who is listed at +4000 odds at DraftKings. Van Rooyen loves playing at birdie-fest tournaments. In his last six that could be classified in that manner, he has five top-eight finishes including winning the World Wide Technology Championship last November. The South African ranks 13th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage and 33rd in Bogey Avoidance — so he can put up a low score this week. Van Rooyen is a great ball-striker. He ranks 21st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he has gained +2.5 SG: Off-the-Teen per round since April. He also ranks 45th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He last played at the Scottish Open two weeks ago when he finished tied for 39th place — but he did gain +5.5 strokes versus the field in his approach. He gained +7.5 strokes versus the field that week in Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green). His biggest weakness is with his chipping as he ranks 148th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green — but that is a category that measures less valuable this week given the large greens and the relatively easy rough (avoiding the water is the bigger hazard). This will be the fourth time that the University of Minnesota graduate will be playing this event that is about 20 miles away from campus. He has extra incentive this year to make a run since it is the first time he is playing this event since his college teammate Jon Trasamar died from cancer last November.

Van Rooyen is linked with J.T. Poston in Round One head-to-head props. Poston returns to the US since missing the cut last week at the British Open. Poston is accurate off-the-tee and good with his putter — and he finished tied for second place at this tournament last year. We were on Poston a few times last summer when he demonstrated staggering improvement with his iron play. But his inconsistency with irons has returned — he ranks just 122nd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season. He also ranks 107th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. These difficulties contribute to him ranking 94th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance. Take van Rooyen (7136) versus Poston (7135) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States for just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas, The 156 profs will also contend with 72 bunkers. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the sixth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. The average winning score in the first five years here has been 19 under par. The tournament affectionately describes the tournament as “birdies and train wrecks.”

BEST BET: Akshay Bhatia (+2000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Bhatia (7005) versus Sahith Theegal (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:18 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Akshay Bhatia who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Bhatia was on a great run before missing the cut last week at the British Open. He finished tied for 22nd place at the Memorial before a tie for 16th place at the US Open. He then finished tied for fifth place at the Travelers Championship before a tie for second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. That was a frustrating finish for Bhatia as three-putted the 18th hole to losing that event by one stroke. He did win the Valero Texas Open in April — so he can close the deal. There is no shame in missing the cut last week in Scotland, especially with the bad weather. Getting home earlier than planned tends to help this well as well — in the last three years, 13 of 17 top-five finishers at the PGA 3M Open did not play or missed the cut the previous week at the British Open. Bhatia proved he can contend at birdie fests like this when he finished in second place in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage. The weakness in his game is Shots-Gained: Around the Green — but chipping is de-emphasized this week given the large greens and all the water hazards that represent the course difficulty rather than difficult rough around the green. Bhatia is accurate off the tee — he ranks 29th on the tour in Driver Accuracy. The strength of his game is his irons. He ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 17th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He is also a great putter — he ranks 27th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is the only pro in the field who ranks top 15 over his last 50 rounds in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green) and Shots-Gained: Putting. Putting is important for success at this event. Overall, Bhatia ranks an impressive tenth on the PGA Tour in 2024 in Shots-Gained: Total. This is his professional debut at TPC Twin Cities — and while that is usually a red flag for me, with most of the top professionals taking the week off to prepare for either the Olympics or the FedEx Playoffs next month, I feel better about a debutante, especially on an easier course.

Bhatia is linked with Sahith Theegala in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Theegala also missed the cut last week at the British Open — but his performance was a bit more concerning since he lost strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and Shots-Gained: Putting, the four major SG categories. Theegala’s skillset does not appear to be a good fit for TPC Twin Cities either. Theegala is not accurate off-the-tee — he ranks 101st in Driver Accuracy. He is at high risk of finding the water. He also ranks 84th in Bogey Avoidance. The proof is in the pudding: Theegala has missed the cut in all three of his previous trips to Blaine to compete in the 3M Open. Take Bhatia (7005) versus Theegala (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour returns to the United States for just two more events before the FedEx Playoffs begin next month with three tournaments. First up for the professionals is the 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota. This Arnold Palmer-designed Par 71 course consists of 7431 yards featuring three Par 5 holes that are all at least 590 yards away from the tee box. Water is in play in 15 of the 18 holes with 27 penalty areas, The 156 profs will also contend with 72 bunkers. The primary rough rises up to four inches. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter on greens that average 6500 square feet. This is the sixth straight year that the PGA 3M Open has taken place at the TPC Twin Cities. The average winning score in the first five years here has been 19 under par. The tournament affectionately describes the tournament as “birdies and train wrecks.”

TOP OVERLAY BET: Keith Mitchell (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Mitchell (7015) versus Taylor Pendrith (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 8:07 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keith Mitchell who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Mitchell is having a down season when considering the expectations at the beginning of the year — but he still has resisted three top tens. Winning this tournament would change the narrative. He did miss the cut last week at the PGA Barracuda Championship — but he was across the pond the previous week competing at the Scottish Open. Mitchell’s game is a great fit for this course. He leads the field this week in Ball Striking (SG: Off-the-Tee plus SG: Approach-the-Green) over his last 36 rounds. He ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, sixth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is second in the field in shots gained on courses with heavy water danger and seventh in the field in shots-gained on courses with easy greens. He is poised to put up a low number since he ranks second on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage — and he ranks 25th in Bogey Avoidance. His weakness is his putter — but he does perform best with his blade on Bentgrass putting surfaces. He has finished in fifth place at this tournament in two straight seasons — he has averaged a 67.50 score per round in those eight rounds. Even better, he has gained more than 12 strokes versus the field with his putter in the last two 3M Opens here at the TPC Twin Cities.

Mitchell is linked with Taylor Pendrith in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Pendrith is one of the best putters on the tour who comes off a tie for fifth place last week at the PGA Barracuda Championship. But Pendrith lacks the ball-striking skills to thrive at this tournament. He ranks 130th in Driver Accuracy — so he may get in trouble with the water off-the-tee. Pendrith ranks 93rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 106th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He also ranks just 73rd in Birdies or Better Percentage and 57th in Bogey Avoidance — so putting up a low number will likely be a struggle. In his first trip to the TPC Twin Cities last year, he missed the cut. Pendrith ranks 29th in the FedEx standings — so he is not playing with urgency this week since he is likely to make the playoffs next month. Take Mitchell (7015) versus Pendrith (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.

LONG SHOT: Shane Lowry (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Lowry (7196) versus Cameron Smith (7195) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 shots if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 9:59 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top ten favorites is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +4000 odds to win this tournament. We have been on Lowry often this season — and it would be the regret I would never forget if I did invest in him at these odds when playing in the potentially bad weather in Scotland. The 2019 British Open winner is enjoying a good season. He last played three weeks ago when he finished tied for ninth place at the Travelers Championship. He has four top tens in 2024 including a third place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a first place in the partners event with Rory McIlroy at the Zurich Classic. He finished tied for sixth place at the PGA Championship and tied for 19th at the US Open. Lowry’s weakness in his game is his putter but the smaller greens make that less of a factor this week. Lowry is one of the best ball strikers in the world. He ranks 18th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 10th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. When Henrik Stenson won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2016, he finished second in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with his 20 under par score. Phil Mickelson finished in second place and was 15th for the week in both those categories. The third-place finisher trailed Mickelson by 11 strokes. Lowry checks many of the boxes of past Open champions (on top of being a past winner). The last seven Open championship winners had won previously in the calendar year. Eight of the last 12 winners were 32 years old or older. This will be Hatton’s 12th British Open — and five of the last six winners had played an Open Championship at least four previous times. Fifteen of the last 18 Open champions finished in ninth place or better in a previous British Open. Lowry has a tie for 12th place and a tie for 21st place at the British Open since his victory in 2019. He also has experience at Royal Troon having played the British Open here in 2016 — and while he missed the cut that year, playing those two rounds in the tournament environment can only help him this week.

Lowry is linked with Cameron Smith for Round One head-to-head props. Smith won the 2022 British Open at the Old Course at St. Andrew’s (and we were on him that week) — but that course plays the opposite of Royal Troon this week. Smith is one of the best putters in the world — but the lag putting that he thrives with is de-emphasized this week with the small greens. Smith is not long or accurate off-the-tee either. He lacks the sample size to qualify for the PGA analytics rankings this year since he is playing the LIV Tour. For some comparison's sake, in his last year on the PGA Tour in 2021-22, he ranked 101st in Driving Distance and 135th in Driving Accuracy. He also ranked 136th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His stats on the LIV Tour suggest he has only taken a step back in those metrics since then. And while that victory in 2020 at St. Andrews was great, his second-best finish at an Open Championship was tied for 20th place in his six previous British Opens. Take Lowry (7196) versus Smith (7195) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.

BEST BET: Collin Morikawa (+1600 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Morikawa (7012) versus Ludvig Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:47 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win the British Open is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Outside of Scottie Scheffler, perhaps no one is playing better in the world right now than Morikawa. Since his tie for third place at the Masters in early April, he has finished in the top 23 in ten straight tournaments with a tie for 16th place or better in his last eight events. He has five top fours during this stretch including a tie for fourth place at the PGA Championship. He settled for a tie for 14th place at the US Open. He reunited with his childhood coach of 18 years in Rick Sessinghaus before the Masters after a split in the fall — and that has corresponded with his vastly improved play. Morikawa is a great fit for this course. He ranks second on the tour in Driving Accuracy — and while he is not one of the biggest drivers on the tour, he still ranks eighth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The weakness of his game is his putter — but the smaller greens neutralize the edge the elite putters would have this week. If Morikawa misses the green, he should still be in fine shape since he ranks 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. That said, Morikawa has been playing better with his blade. He finished 11th and 15th in the field at the US Open and the Memorial in Shots-Gained: Putting. He gained strokes versus the field with his blade in six of seven tournaments going into the Travelers Championship two events ago (I did not check how he fared with his putter in his last two events). Morikawa checks plenty of the boxes of many past British Open champions. Four of the last six winners of the Open Championship finished tied for 11th place or better at one of the three previous major championships. Nine of the last 13 past winners played the previous week at the Scottish Open. Morikawa won the British Open in 2021 when it was hosted at Royal St. George — and 15 of the last 18 winners of the Open Championship had previously finished tied for ninth place or better at this tournament.  

Morikawa is linked with Ludvig Aberg in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The 24-year-old Swede is a great talent — and I suspect I will be jumping on his bandwagon next season. But this is his first British Open in his young career — and Morikawa was one of the exceptions to win the Open Championship before the age of 32-years-old. Five of the last six winners of the British Open had played at least four previous Open Championships. Aberg competed last week at the Scottish Open — and after leading the way after three rounds, he stumbled on Sunday with a round of 73 which was three over par. Aberg ranks 57th on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy — so he might get into trouble with all the dangers off-the-tee. He also ranks 88th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — so if he misses the small greens, he may be vulnerable to more bogeys like he had on Sunday. Take Morikawa (7012) versus Aberg (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
 
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour’s European excursion concludes this week with the final major championship of the year, the British Open. The Royal Troon Golf Club at the South Ayrshire Coast in Scotland (34 miles south of Glasgow) hosts this tournament for the tenth time. This is a Par 71 track consisting of 7385 yards. Since the Open Championship last tool place here in 2016, 195 yards has been added to the track and nine of the tee boxes have been changed. The Par Five sixth hole is the longest of any British Open at 623 yards. In contrast, the Par Three eighth hole tabled the “Postage Stamp” is only 123 yards. The course ranked the fourth hardest on the PGA Tour in 2016 — and it will test all the clubs in the bag. This classic links course will be windy on the coast. There is a good chance of rain on Thursday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach the 60s during the day so it will be chilly. The fairways are undulated with humps and hollows. Accuracy off the tee is important given the fescue rough that can get thick, gorse bushes, and the 98 deep pot bunkers. The greens consist of Bentgrass/Poa Annua blend that measures a slow 9 1/2 to 10 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Averaging at 4500 square feet, the putting surfaces are some of the smallest on the tour. The 156 professionals will compete to make the top 70 (plus ties) to make the cut and play the weekend.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Tyrrell Hatton (+3000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Hatton (7150) versus Tom Kim (7122) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 4:47 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. I spent a significant amount of time deliberating between Tommy Fleetwood and Hatton who have similar profiles — but with Fleetwood priced at +2200 odds at DraftKings, let’s follow the primary point of the Top Overlay Bet which is taking advantage of value. Hatton at +3000 is the better Overlay. The 32-year-old is in good form this summer. On the LIV Tour, he followed up by winning the event in Nashville by three strokes against Jon Rahm and US Open winner Bryson DeChambeau by three strokes then finishing in third place last week at Valderrama in Spain. He finished for a tie for ninth place at the Masters and was in the hunt after three days at the US Open before shooting 77 on Sunday of that event. Hatton does not have enough rounds on the PGA Tour to qualify for the analytics rankings in the Shots-Gained, et al categories. When he was on the PGA Tour last season, he ranked 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 19th in Scrambling. While he failed to make the cut in his first five majors in his career, he has since made 11 straight cuts at major championships with four top 15s. Hatton checks some interesting boxes regarding the qualities of past Open champions. The last seven winners of the British Open won a previous tournament in the calendar year. Eight of the last 12 winners were 32 years old or older. This will be Hatton’s 12th British Open — and five of the last six winners had played an Open Championship at least four previous times. Hatton has two top-sixes at the British Open along with a tie for 11th place and a tie for 20th place — and 15 of the last 18 Open champions finished in ninth place or better in a previous British Open. Finally, Hatton has experience at Royal Troon having played the British Open here in 2016 when he finished tied for fifth place in his best result at a major championship. Eight years later, he will play with confidence this week.

Hatton is linked with Tom Kim for Round One head-to-head props. I like Kim — and we were on him last week when he finished tied for 15th place at the Scottish Open. I’m not sure Kim’s game sets up well for this course. He ranks 57th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks 73rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. When Henrik Stenson won the Open Championship at Royal Troon in 2016, he finished second in the field for the week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green with his 20 under par score. Phil Mickelson finished in second place and was 15th for the week in both those categories. The third-place finisher trailed Mickelson by 11 strokes. Kim also ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 119th in Bogey Avoidance — so he may get into trouble if he misses the small greens this week. Kim finished in second place at the British Open last year — but that may place some pressure regarding expectations on him for this event, especially in Round One. As mentioned above, British Open veterans tend to perform better. Kim has not won an event on the PGA Tour either — so he does not check the box of the last seven Open championship winners having won previously in the calendar year. Take Hattan (7150) versus Kim (7149) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. 

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The undulated greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and while benign weather was expected earlier in the week, the wind is picking up and may play a role again at this tournament. rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the sixth straight year with this tournament. The average score at this tournament last year was 69.68 per round.

BEST BET: Tommy Fleetwood (+2200 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Fleetwood (7012) versus Viktor Hovland (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 3:28 AM ET.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Fleetwood opened the week at +2000 odds — so we are getting even more value on Wednesday. Fleetwood may be winless on the PGA Tour — but he has seven victories on the DP Tour including a victory in Scotland. He is very comfortable with links courses — and he can handle inclement weather. He is in great form after making the cut in 15 of his 16 events in 2024. He has finished in the top 26 in eight of the last nine tournaments worldwide. In those events, he has four top 10 results and nine top 20s. He has played well at all three major championships this year with a third place at the Masters followed up with a 26th at the PGA Championship and a 16th place at the US Open last month. Fleetwood last played at the Travelers Championship three weeks ago when he finished in 15th place. He finished the event ranked second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in Bogey Avoidance which will help this week with low scores expected. Fleetwood finished in fourth place at this tournament two years ago before a tie for sixth place in his second trip here last year.

Fleetwood is linked with Viktor Hovland in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hovland has been wildly inconsistent this year after winning the Tour Championship in Atlanta last August. After changing coaches, he finished tied for 62nd place at THE PLAYERS Championship before missing the cut at the Masters. He reunited with his long-time coach Joe Mayo soon after — and he seemed to find his swing again with a tie for third place at the PGA Championship. But he missed the cut at the US Open last month before a tie for 20th place at the Travelers Championship. It’s hard to know what to expect — but I suspect the British Open next week is his higher priority. I don’t think he is a good fit for this course because his chipping game continues to lag. Since last year’s British Open, Hovland has lost strokes to the field Around the Green in 11 of his 14 tournaments — and he has lost strokes to the field in that category in ten of his last 11 events. In his last ten tournaments, he has averaged losing -2.0 strokes to the field in Around the Green. While it is fair to say that Hovland manages his chipping better when dealing with longer rough, he struggles in particular with his touch off the green when dealing with shorter grass. Hovland has played this tournament twice — he missed the cut in his first trip before a tie for 25th place last year. Take Fleetwood (7012) versus Hovland (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The undulated greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and while benign weather was expected earlier in the week, the wind is picking up and may play a role again at this tournament. rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the sixth straight year with this tournament. The average score at this tournament last year was 69.68 per round.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Tom Kim (+2800 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Kim (7121) versus Kevin Yu (7122) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab the +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). This prop goes off the board at 3:17 AM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tom Kim who is listed at +2800 odds at DraftKings. Kim loves links courses — and he is in great form. Let’s give him a pass for missing the cut in his most recent event at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit two weeks ago. That was a week after his dramatic playoff loss to Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers Championship (and the last signature event of the year). Kim also finished tied for fourth place at the RBC Canadian Open last month. Kim has finished tied for 26th place or better in five of his last seven tournaments. His breakthrough on the PGA Tour took place on this European swing last summer when he finished tied for second place at the British Open. He finished tied for sixth place at this tournament last July after a third-place result here in his first trip to the Renaissance Club in 2022.

Kim is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. Hovland has been wildly inconsistent this year after winning the Tour Championship in Atlanta last August. After changing coaches, he finished tied for 62nd place at THE PLAYERS Championship before missing the cut at the Masters. He reunited with his long-time coach Joe Mayo soon after — and he seemed to find his swing again with a tie for third place at the PGA Championship. But he missed the cut at the US Open last month before a tie for 20th place at the Travelers Championship. It’s hard to know what to expect — but I suspect the British Open next week is his higher priority. I don’t think he is a good fit for this course because his chipping game continues to lag. Since last year’s British Open, Hovland has lost strokes to the field Around the Green in 11 of his 14 tournaments — and he has lost strokes to the field in that category in ten of his last 11 events. In his last ten tournaments, he has averaged losing -2.0 strokes to the field in Around the Green. While it is fair to say that Hovland manages his chipping better when dealing with longer rough, he struggles in particular with his touch off the green when dealing with shorter grass. Hovland has played this tournament twice — he missed the cut in his first trip before a tie for 25th place last year. He also ranks just 88th on the tour in Round One scoring. Take Kim (7121) versus Hovland (7122) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves across the Atlantic Ocean for the next two weeks with its joint venture with the DP Tour culminating with the British Open next week. But first up is the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland. This is a links course with wide fairways consisting of fescue grass for the fairways, rough, and putting greens. Consisting of 7237 yards, the tournament is a Par 70 event with three Par 5s, five Par 3s, and 10 Par 4s. The undulated greens feature extensive contouring and measure only up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. Weather typically plays a significant role on these seaside courses — and while benign weather was expected earlier in the week, the wind is picking up and may play a role again at this tournament. rain and high winds are expected. The Renaissance Club hosts the Scottish Open for the sixth straight year with this tournament. The average score at this tournament last year was 69.68 per round.

LONG SHOT: Aaron Rai (+4000 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: Rai (7022) versus Corey Conners (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:22 AM ET.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Aaron Rai who is listed +4000 odds at DraftKings. Rai is in great form right now with eight straight-made cuts. He has four straight top 20 finishes and his last two events have been in the top seven after following up a tie for second place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with a tie for seventh place at the John Deere Classic two weeks ago. He has three top-17 finishes in his last seven events. Rai has gained strokes versus the field in eight straight tournaments. In his last five events, he has gained +6.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. But perhaps the biggest improvement in his game has been with his putter. Under the guidance of his new putting instructor John Graham, Rai has gained +2.9, +4.8, and then +8.9 strokes versus the field with his putter. Rai is already one of the best ball strikers on the tour. He ranks tenth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks seventh in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Overall, he ranks fifth in Shots-Gained: Total. Rai won this tournament at the Renaissance Club in 2020.

Rai is linked with Corey Conners in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Conners is in good form — he followed up a tie for ninth at the US Open with a tie for 27th place three weeks ago at the Travelers Championship. That finish was actually his worst result in his last seven tournaments. My concern with the elite ball striker is his short game which will probably get in the way of putting up a very low number. Conners ranks 102nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 138th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also ranks 72nd in Bogey Avoidance. He has placed at this course twice — he settled for 61st place in 2022 before improving to 19th place last year. Take Rai (7022) versus Conners (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.

THE SITUATION: The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities at the TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic. This is a Par 71 event on a course designed by D.A. Weibring that consists of 7289 yards. Only four of the 11 Par 4 holes are longer than 450 yards — and five of these Par 4s are less than 435 yards. The fairways are 35 yards wide and protected by trees and thick rough. The 156 professionals will contend with 76 sand bunkers. Three of the holes feature water hazards. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass greens that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens average 5500 square feet in size. Last year, 64% of the drives off the tee reached the fairway and the pros reached the Greens In Regulation 72% of the time. Regarding approach shots, 45% of these shots came from inside 150 yards while 25% were from beyond 200 yards. The average winning score in the last three years here has been 20.3 under par — so this shapes up to be a birdie fest. Four of the last five winners had a score of 21 or more under par.

TOP OVERLAY BET: Maverick McNealy (+2500 odds at DraftKings). Recommended Prop Bet: McNealy (7144) versus Kevin Yu (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. This prop goes off the board at 2:11 PM ET.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Maverick McNealy who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. We were on McNealy last week but he started slow and settled with a tie for 44th place in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Despite the subpar week, I am not jumping off the bandwagon in a non-signature event like this. He still has three top-nine finishes in his last 11 PGA events. His previous tournament resulted in a tie for seventh place at the RBC Canadian Open at the beginning of the month. He gained +2.5 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and gained another +4.1 strokes with his putter that week. He has made the cut in 13 straight PGA tournaments including a tie for ninth place at THE PLAYERS Championship and a tie for 23rd place at the PGA Championship. He also finished in a tie for sixth place at the signature event WM Phoenix Open. He has gained at least +1.6 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in four of his last six tournaments. In his last five PGA events before last week, he had gained almost eight strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 19th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks eighth in the field this week in that category. It will take a low score to win this week. McNealy ranks seventh in the field in Par 4 Scoring. He also ranks 14th on the tour in fifth in the field in Birdie or Better Percentage — and he ranks second in the field in that category this week. He also ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance. He also ranks 12th in Rounds in the 60s — and in the last five tournaments at TPC Deere Run, the top ten finishers scored in the 60s in 88% of their rounds. McNealy has a strong track record at the John Deere Classic. He finished tied for 18th in his second trip in 2021 before backing that up with a tie for 8th place two summers ago. He has averaged 67.5 strokes per round in those previous two tournaments.

McNealy is linked with Kevin Yu for Round One head-to-head props. Yu has made the weekend in four straight tournaments after his tie for 31st place last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. But he has still missed the cut in six of his last 13 PGA events. He finished tied for sixth place in his debut here last year — but that seems to be a result of a surprising effort with his short game. Yu ranks 161st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this year. He also ranks 162nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Struggling with the short game is an impediment for low scoring — and Yu ranks 73rd in Birdies or Better Percentage. Take McNealy (7144) versus Yu (7143) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.

Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win — just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%.  For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.