The PGA Tour returns to Detroit for a second straight year with the Rocket Mortage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club. 156 players will compete at this 7340-yard course. This par 72 event will feature four Par-5s for the first time since the restart on the tour last month. One of these Par-5 holes is 630 yards which the professionals last year birdied just 30% of the time. The pros birdied the three other Par-4 holes 40% of the time last year. This is a Donald Ross-designed course which means tree-lined fairways with plenty of doglegs that challenge the shot-shaping skills of the golfers. The Bentgrass greens have an average putting surface of a relatively small 5200 square feet. This course compares to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas where the PGA Tour returned on June 11th last month — and that means there will be some room on the fairway for the pros to get out their driver. The average score last year was 70.113 with Nate Lashley leading start-to-finish in winning his first career PGA Tour event. His winning formula included finishing 4th in the field in Greens-in-Regulation while finishing 3rd in Scrambling, 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 3rd in Shots-Gained: Putting. The rough has been made longer this year to lower last year’s winning score of 25 under par. The other metrics that I am valuing this week for this course given last year’s numbers include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, and Adjusted Scoring.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Bryson DeChambeau who Bovada lists as their favorite this week at +600. At first glance, I generally don’t like to take short favorites like this — especially when his closest competitor (Webb Simpson) sees his odds fall to the +1100 range. On the other hand, I am very bullish on DeChambeau right now — and I would be riddled with guilt and regret if I did not keep riding him when the field appears to be cleared for him to win the trophy. Even at relatively low 600 odds, that haul still covers our three chips this week while letting us play with a freeroll for next week’s three chips. DeChambeau is certainly in form with a tie for 3rd place at the compare Colonial Country Club last month followed by a T-8 at the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town before his T-6 last week at the TPC River Highlands despite not having his A-Game for that event. DeChambeau leads the field with an Adjusted Score average of 63.7 along with hitting 78.7% of his Greens-in-Regulation since the return to action for the pros that have played more than one event. Overall this season, he has generated seven Top-10 finishes in his ten events. The dude returned from quarantine simply jacked with an additional 20 pounds of muscle. It’s not like he was skinny beforehand — the former SMU graduate began taking his physical training and his diet very seriously two years ago. This regimen has helped him rank 2nd on the PGA Tour in 2020 in Driving Distance at 320.1 average yards — and he was cranking drives reaching 367 yards last month. And his bombs are not coming at the expense of accuracy as he 2nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2020. While this course does not supposedly reward big hitters, golfers like DeChambeau can be the exception to that rule because they are so strong — as long as their scrambling skills are good. DeChambeau is 3rd on the PGA Tour in Scrambling. But what makes this golfer so intriguing is that he combines his brawn with a very good short game. DeChambeau is a great (albeit, patient) putter — he is 23nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he is 27th in Putting: Birdies or Better. He is 5th on the tour in Sand Save Percentage. Overall, he is 6th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing 2nd in that important metric last year. Additionally, DeChambeau is 5th on the tour in Par-3 Scoring, 3rd on the tour in Par-4 Scoring, and 13th on the tour in Par-5 scoring. He also ranks 9th on the tour this season in Greens-In-Regulation which is another good predictor of success at the Detroit Golf Club. DeChambeau is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total all-around metric this season. DeChambeau is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in head-to-head propositions to win this tournament. Matsuyama is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour — he is 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this year. But putting is the weak part of his game which has him struggle at these courses with smaller putting surfaces where the onus is higher on executing with the blade. Matsuyama is 203rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He missed the cut two weeks ago at the Harbour Town Golf Links where the average green is 3700 square feet. This will be his second event since the return — so his form is still in question. Matsuyama ranks a solid 18th in Greens-in-Regulation on the tour while ranking 22nd in Shots-Gained: Total — but those numbers are below a more in-form DeChambeau. Take DeChambeau (7139) in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament versus Matsuyama. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Tour returns to Detroit for a second straight year with the Rocket Mortage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club. 156 players will compete at this 7340-yard course. This par 72 event will feature four Par-5s for the first time since the restart on the tour last month. One of these Par-5 holes is 630 yards which the professionals last year birdied just 30% of the time. The pros birdied the three other Par-4 holes 40% of the time last year. This is a Donald Ross-designed course which means tree-lined fairways with plenty of doglegs that challenge the shot-shaping skills of the golfers. The Bentgrass greens have an average putting surface of a relatively small 5200 square feet. This course compares to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas where the PGA Tour returned on June 11th last month — and that means there will be some room on the fairway for the pros to get out their driver. The average score last year was 70.113 with Nate Lashley leading start-to-finish in winning his first career PGA Tour event. His winning formula included finishing 4th in the field in Greens-in-Regulation while finishing 3rd in Scrambling, 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 3rd in Shots-Gained: Putting. The rough has been made longer this year to lower last year’s winning score of 25 under par. The other metrics that I am valuing this week for this course given last year’s numbers include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, and Adjusted Scoring.



Our Best Bet to win this event is on Bryson DeChambeau who Bovada lists as their favorite this week at +600. At first glance, I generally don’t like to take short favorites like this — especially when his closest competitor (Webb Simpson) sees his odds fall to the +1100 range. On the other hand, I am very bullish on DeChambeau right now — and I would be riddled with guilt and regret if I did not keep riding him when the field appears to be cleared for him to win the trophy. Even at relatively low 600 odds, that haul still covers our three chips this week while letting us play with a freeroll for next week’s three chips. DeChambeau is certainly in form with a tie for 3rd place at the compare Colonial Country Club last month followed by a T-8 at the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town before his T-6 last week at the TPC River Highlands despite not having his A-Game for that event. DeChambeau leads the field with an Adjusted Score average of 63.7 along with hitting 78.7% of his Greens-in-Regulation since the return to action for the pros that have played more than one event. Overall this season, he has generated seven Top-10 finishes in his ten events. The dude returned from quarantine simply jacked with an additional 20 pounds of muscle. It’s not like he was skinny beforehand — the former SMU graduate began taking his physical training and his diet very seriously two years ago. This regimen has helped him rank 2nd on the PGA Tour in 2020 in Driving Distance at 320.1 average yards — and he was cranking drives reaching 367 yards last month. And his bombs are not coming at the expense of accuracy as he 2nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in 2020. While this course does not supposedly reward big hitters, golfers like DeChambeau can be the exception to that rule because they are so strong — as long as their scrambling skills are good. DeChambeau is 3rd on the PGA Tour in Scrambling. But what makes this golfer so intriguing is that he combines his brawn with a very good short game. DeChambeau is a great (albeit, patient) putter — he is 23nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he is 27th in Putting: Birdies or Better. He is 5th on the tour in Sand Save Percentage. Overall, he is 6th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing 2nd in that important metric last year. Additionally, DeChambeau is 5th on the tour in Par-3 Scoring, 3rd on the tour in Par-4 Scoring, and 13th on the tour in Par-5 scoring. He also ranks 9th on the tour this season in Greens-In-Regulation which is another good predictor of success at the Detroit Golf Club. DeChambeau is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total all-around metric this season. DeChambeau is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in head-to-head propositions to win this tournament. Matsuyama is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour — he is 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this year. But putting is the weak part of his game which has him struggle at these courses with smaller putting surfaces where the onus is higher on executing with the blade. Matsuyama is 203rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He missed the cut two weeks ago at the Harbour Town Golf Links where the average green is 3700 square feet. This will be his second event since the return — so his form is still in question. Matsuyama ranks a solid 18th in Greens-in-Regulation on the tour while ranking 22nd in Shots-Gained: Total — but those numbers are below a more in-form DeChambeau. Take DeChambeau (7139) in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament versus Matsuyama.

Our Top Overlay on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tyrrell Hatton who Bovada lists at +1400 to win this tournament. Hatton followed up a tie for 6th place at the WGC-Mexico Championship by winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational before the stoppage of play. In his first event since the return, Hatton was very good at Harbour Town two weeks ago where he finished tied for 3rd place. Hatton has a fantastic profile for this event. He leads the tour in 2020 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, Shots-Gained: Approach, and Shots-Gained: Total while also ranking 10th in Greens-in-Regulation. Hatton is also a fantastic putter as he is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting and 18th in Putting: Birdies or Better. Hatton is linked with Sungjae Im for head-to-head betting propositions for Round One on Thursday. I like Im — and he finished tied for 10th place in his first event since the return at the Colonial Country Club. That said, Hatton is simply in a much better position to be in a position to win this tournament on Sunday. Im’s strength is his ball-striking abilities — he ranks 22nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. But Im is just 68th in Greens-in-Regulation and 44th in Shots-Gained: Approach. And putting is not a strength for Im as he is only 48th on the tour in 2020 in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Hatton (7111) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Im (7112) for Round One. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Tour returns to Detroit for a second straight year with the Rocket Mortage Classic at the Detroit Golf Club. 156 players will compete at this 7340-yard course. This par 72 event will feature four Par-5s for the first time since the restart on the tour last month. One of these Par-5 holes is 630 yards which the professionals last year birdied just 30% of the time. The pros birdied the three other Par-4 holes 40% of the time last year. This is a Donald Ross-designed course which means tree-lined fairways with plenty of doglegs that challenge the shot-shaping skills of the golfers. The Bentgrass greens have an average putting surface of a relatively small 5200 square feet. This course compares to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas where the PGA Tour returned on June 11th last month — and that means there will be some room on the fairway for the pros to get out their driver. The average score last year was 70.113 with Nate Lashley leading start-to-finish in winning his first career PGA Tour event. His winning formula included finishing 4th in the field in Greens-in-Regulation while finishing 3rd in Scrambling, 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 3rd in Shots-Gained: Putting. The rough has been made longer this year to lower last year’s winning score of 25 under par. The other metrics that I am valuing this week for this course given last year’s numbers include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, and Adjusted Scoring.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Brandt Snedeker who is listed at +4000 to win this event according to Bovada. Snedeker is a specialist on Donald Ross-designed courses. Three of his nine PGA Tour wins have been on Ross courses at Forest Oaks in 2008, East Lake in 2012 (where yours truly holed his only Hole-in-One, albeit at the sister Charlie Yates’ course across the street), and at Sedgefield for the Wyndham Classic two years ago where he posted a round of 59. Snedeker finished tied for 5th place at the inaugural event here last week where he shot a 65 and 67 over the weekend while finishing 5th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Snedeker missed the cut two weeks ago at Harbour Town before a T-41 last week — but his outstanding short game skills make his dangerous this week. Snedeker not only ranks 18th on the PGA Tour in 2020 in Shots-Gained: Putting but he also ranks 3rd in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so the small putting surfaces will not throw him off. Snedeker is linked with Kevin Kisner in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament. Kisner has missed the cut in the last two weeks after finishing T-29th at the Colonial in the return to action. Kisner won the match play at WGC-Dell Technologies event last year and he was T-4 at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i in January. He is accurate off the tee. But he is just 78th in FedEx Cup standings. He ranks 168th on the tour in Greens-in-Regulation. He is also just 125th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 156th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Kisner is also just middling with his blade as he ranks 91st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Snedeker (7017) in head-to-head betting propositions in the tournament versus Kisner (7018). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to Cromwell, Connecticut at the TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship. There was plenty of activity with the odds on Wednesday with two big favorites in Brooks Koepka and Webb Simpson both withdrew from the event given COVID-19 concerns with people testing positive in their inner circle who Bovada listed as two of the top-six favorites to win this tournament. This Peter Dye course is a short 6841 yards. At a par of 70, the average round last year for the raised was 69.724 with Chez Reavie winning with a score of 17 under par. Examining Reavie’s formula for success last year was leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach. Reavie was also second in Scrambling, tied for 7th in Greens-In-Regulation, and 10th in Shots-Gained: Putting. 156 golfers will contend with four-inch rough and poa annua putting surfaces.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Bubba Watson who Bovada lists at +2500 to win this event. Watson’s chances of winning this event have improved with the news that Koepka and Simpson will not be competing this week as both golfers were higher favorites than the lefty. Watson’s natural right-to-left fade fits this course quite well which helps explain his fantastic course history here. Watson is a three-time winner at TPC River Highlands with victories in 2010, 2015, and 2018 to represent three of his twelve PGA Tour wins in his career. Watson has also finished tied for 2nd place, along with a solo 4th place, and a tie for 6th place at this event. Watson also comes into this event in nice form after finishing tied for 7th place two weeks ago at the Colonial Country Club before tying for 52nd place last week at Harbor Town where he did enjoy his best round on Sunday with a 6 under par. Besides his right-to-left fade, Watson’s success here has come from his ability to outdrive the course. He is 7th on the tour this season in Driving Distance while ranking 11th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His improving Shots-Gained: Approach the Green numbers as of late helps put him in the position to contend this week. Watson is linked with Sung Kang for Round One head-to-head propositions on Thursday. Kang was finding a rhythm in earlier this year with a tie for 2nd place at the Genesis Invitational and a tie for 9th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in two of his last three starts — but then COVID-19 arrived. Kang has struggled in his return as he has missed the cut the last two weeks. Now he travels to the TPC River Highlands where has missed the cut in three of his five appearances here with a tie for 75 and a tie for 78 being his other two results. He has never played on Sunday at this course which is a pretty ominous consideration when playing with a three-time champion on Thursday. Kang’s game is not a great fit for this course. He is 71st on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Gree and 126th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He is also just 181st on the tour in Scrambling and 161st in Par-4 Scoring. Take Watson (7142) versus Kang (7141) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to Cromwell, Connecticut at the TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship. There was plenty of activity with the odds on Wednesday with two big favorites in Brooks Koepka and Webb Simpson both withdrew from the event given COVID-19 concerns with people testing positive in their inner circle who Bovada listed as two of the top-six favorites to win this tournament. This Peter Dye course is a short 6841 yards. At a par of 70, the average round last year for the raised was 69.724 with Chez Reavie winning with a score of 17 under par. Examining Reavie’s formula for success last year was leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach. Reavie was also second in Scrambling, tied for 7th in Greens-In-Regulation, and 10th in Shots-Gained: Putting. 156 golfers will contend with four-inch rough and poa annua putting surfaces. 

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Paul Casey who is listed at +3300 according to Bovada to win this event. Casey has an outstanding history at TPC River Highlands where he has made all five of his cuts with two 2nd place finishes along with two ties for 5th place, and a tie for 17th place being his lowest result. Casey has averaged a score of 67.10 in his twenty total rounds at this event. Casey is one of the better ball-strikers on the tour. He was 4th on the PGA Tour last year in Greens-In-Regulation and currently lacks 18th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Casey’s skill set matches the traits needed to score well at this course. Casey is 16th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee which has helped him rank 5th on the tour in Par-5 Scoring. Casey also ranks 8th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. This will be his first professional event since the return of the PGA Tour this month. While that would concern me for most golfers, I am willing to give a pass to a 42-year old veteran like Casey who already bobs and weaves through the tour schedule to take advantage of the courses that better fit his game. Frankly, his inactivity is why his odds are in the +3000s. He did come off his best performance of the season in his last start with a tied 11th place at the WGC-Mexico Championship in late February. Casey is linked with Shane Lowry for Round One head-to-head betting propositions. This will be Lowry’s professional debut at this tournament with the Irishman spending much of his time on the European tour. Lowry has taken part in the first two PGA Tour events this month but has missed the cut at both the Colonial Country Club and then Harbour Town last week. The reigning British Open champ does not profile well for this event. He ranks 51st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 111th in Shots-Gained: Total this season. Furthermore, Lowry is 114th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is just 81st in Par-4 Scoring and 107th in Par-5 Scoring. Take Casey (7120) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One on Thursday over Lowry (7119). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Tour moves to Cromwell, Connecticut at the TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship. There was plenty of activity with the odds on Wednesday with two big favorites in Brooks Koepka and Webb Simpson both withdrew from the event given COVID-19 concerns with people testing positive in their inner circle who Bovada listed as two of the top-six favorites to win this tournament. This Peter Dye course is a short 6841 yards. At a par of 70, the average round last year for the raised was 69.724 with Chez Reavie winning with a score of 17 under par. Examining Reavie’s formula for success last year was leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach. Reavie was also second in Scrambling, tied for 7th in Greens-In-Regulation, and 10th in Shots-Gained: Putting. 156 golfers will contend with four-inch rough and poa annua putting surfaces.

Our Best Bet to win this event is Bryson DeChambeau who Bovada now lists at +1100 to win this event. DeChambeau was our Best Bet last week — and after joining Webb Simpson with the lead going into the weekend, a disappointing third-round contributed to him finishing tied for 8th place five shots off Simpson’s 22 under par. That made it five straight top-eight or better finishes after he finished tied for 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge two weeks ago. DeChambeau offers a very intriguing mix of great form with a nice course history as he appears to be making the jump into being one of the very best golfers in the world. The dude returned from quarantine simply jacked with an additional 20 pounds of muscle. It’s not like he was skinny beforehand — the former SMU graduate began taking his physical training and his diet very seriously two years ago. This regimen has helped him rank 2nd on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance at 320.5 average yards — and he was cranking drives reaching 367 yards two weeks. And his bombs are not coming at the expense of accuracy as he leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this season. While this course does not supposedly reward big hitters, golfers like DeChambeau can be the exception to that rule because they are so strong — as long as their scrambling skills are good. DeChambeau is 5th on the PGA Tour this year in Scrambling. But what makes this golfer so intriguing is that he combines his brawn with a very good short game. DeChambeau is a great (albeit, patient) putter — he is 32nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is 9th on the tour with a Sand Save Percentage of 63.8% which is 18th best. Overall, he is 7th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing 2nd in that important metric last year. Additionally, DeChambeau is 2nd on the tour in Par-3 Scoring, 4th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring, and 13th on the tour in Par-5 scoring with the latter two categories being good predictors of success on this course. He also ranks 13th on the tour this season in Greens-In-Regulation which is another good predictor of success at the TPC River Highlands. DeChambeau is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total all-around metric this season. DeChambeau also has a solid history at this course where he has improved in each of his first four appearances culminating in his tie for 8th place last year for his second top-ten finish here. He looks poised to take the final step this year. With two big favorites in Koepka and Simpson now out of the field, that makes it a little easier for probably the hottest and most consistent golfer on the tour right now. DeChambeau is linked with Rory McIlroy in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament. I love McIlroy but he is a golfer who tends to thrive at the longer courses where he can take advantage of his distance as he leads the tour in Par-5 Scoring. But McIlroy is 15th in Par-4 Scoring and 35th in Greens-In-Regulation which are below DeChambeau’s numbers for that telling metric for this course. McIlroy is not in his top form coming off the three-month break. He followed up a tie for 32nd place at the Colonial Country Club two weeks ago with a tied for 41st place last week at Harbour Town. Given the disruption of the schedules that COVID-19 had on these golfers, I am giving more weight to recent form. McIlory may need a few more weeks to get his “A” game back — and he may be looking to peak for the next major championship in the first week in August for the PGA Championship. McIlroy has been good — but not great — in his two previous starts at the TPC River Highlands with 12th and 17th place finishes. DeChambeau is in better form with a better course history, and a better profile for success at this event. Take DeChambeau (7116) in head-to-head betting propositions versus McIlory (7115). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The RBC Heritage takes place in the hotter weather of June this year in Hilton Head, South Carolina rather than its traditional April slot next to the Masters. This Pete Dye designed course at the Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour at 7099 yards. Placement of the ball for approach shots usually defines success at this course. Course management and smarts are placed at a premium with strong iron play and shot-shaping. Bombers typically do not retain their advantage at this course that rewards small-ball. While there is minimal rough, there are plenty of hazards with seventeen penalty areas for hitting the ball into the ocean with 54 sand traps protecting the greens and trees shaping this links course. This course also has small greens with an average of 3700 square feet per putting surface. Course history concerning birdie percentage along with Par-3 and Par-4 scoring averages on the tour along with Bogey Avoidance are a few of the deeper metrics that have translated into empirical success at this event. C.T. Pan won their tournament last year by shooting 12-under par despite shooting below average in Fairways Hit and posting a middling Greens-In-Regulation mark. Pan was 2nd that week in Putts-per-Greens-In-Regulation and 7th in Proximity to the hole (in the approach). Pan was the fourth straight older who their first PGA Tour event on this course — so fading the some of the favorites may make sense this week. The average score from the field last year was 71.170 for this Par-71 course.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Matt Kuchar who Bovada lists at 40-1 to win this event. Kuchar loves this course that is tailored nicely to his game — and the low-hitting shot-shaper has a fantastic history at this event. After missing the cut in his debut here in 2003, the Georgia Tech grad has made the cut fifteen straight times attending this event annually. He lifted the trophy in 2014 — and he has followed that up with 5th, T-9, T-11, and T-23 place finishes before his 2nd place result last spring. His scoring average over the span is 68.79. Kuchar probably knows this course better than all his competitors — and he ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The veteran is still playing at a top level. After winning the Singapore Open in early January, he finished in 2nd place the Riviera Country Club at the Genesis Invitational in mid February. Kuchar is linked with Ryan Armour in head-to-head betting propositions for the 1st Round. Armour is one of the most accurate off the tee along he is not a big hitter. But Armour has failed to make the cut in any of his six professional events in 2020 — and he did not shake off the rust by competing last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Armour’s game does not fit this course. He is not an elite ball-striker as he ranks 60th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is 80th on Proximity to the Green, 178th in Scrambling, and just 226th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Furthermore, Armour is 137th in Par-3 Scoring and 119th in Par-4 Scoring — and he is 183rd in Bogey Avoidance this season. Armour finished a distant tied for 63rd at this event last year. Take Kuchar (7107) in head-to-head betting propositions for the 1st Round versus Armour (7108). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The RBC Heritage takes place in the hotter weather of June this year in Hilton Head, South Carolina rather than its traditional April slot next to the Masters. This Pete Dye designed course at the Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour at 7099 yards. Placement of the ball for approach shots usually defines success at this course. Course management and smarts are placed at a premium with strong iron play and shot-shaping. Bombers typically do not retain their advantage at this course that rewards small-ball. While there is minimal rough, there are plenty of hazards with seventeen penalty areas for hitting the ball into the ocean with 54 sand traps protecting the greens and trees shaping this links course. This course also has small greens with an average of 3700 square feet per putting surface. Course history concerning birdie percentage along with Par-3 and Par-4 scoring averages on the tour along with Bogey Avoidance are a few of the deeper metrics that have translated into empirical success at this event. C.T. Pan won their tournament last year by shooting 12-under par despite shooting below average in Fairways Hit and posting a middling Greens-In-Regulation mark. Pan was 2nd that week in Putts-per-Greens-In-Regulation and 7th in Proximity to the hole (in the approach). Pan was the fourth straight older who their first PGA Tour event on this course — so fading the some of the favorites may make sense this week. The average score from the field last year was 71.170 for this Par-71 course.

Our Best Bet to win this event is Bryson DeChambeau who is listed at 14-1 to win this event at Bovada. DeChambeau offers a very intriguing mix of great form with a nice course history. He made it four straight top-four finishes last week when he finished tied for 3rd at the Charles Schwab Challenge. That was an impressive result when considering that he had only broken par twice there in his four appearances with a tie for 42nd place being the lone time he did not miss the cut. DeChambeau appears to be making the jump into being one of the very best golfers in the world. The dude returned from quarantine simply jacked with an additional 20 pounds of muscle. It’s not like he was skinny beforehand — the former SMU graduate began taking his physical training and his diet very seriously two years ago. This regimen has helped him lead the PGA Tour in Driving Distance at 321.3 average yards. DeChambeau was cranking drives reaching 367 yards last week. And his bombs are not coming at the expense of accuracy as he ranks 3rd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this season. While this course does not reward long drivers, golfers like DeChambeau can be the exception to that rule because they are so strong. But what makes this golfer so intriguing is that he combines his brawn with a very good short game. DeChambeau is a great (albeit, patient) putter — he is 22nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is 18th on the tour with a Sand Save Percentage of 63.8% which is 18th best. He is 15th on the tour in Scrambling Percentage of 66.2%. Overall, he is 10th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing 2nd in that important metric last year. Additionally, DeChambeau is 11th on the tour in Par-3 Scoring and 11th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring. He also ranks 4th in Bogey Avoidance. I love his profile for this event. This will be his fifth professional trip to Harbor Town where he finished tied for 4th in 2016 and tied for 3rd place in 2018. He also has two missed cuts here — and those memories should keep honest and not too cocky. DeChambeau is linked with Justin Thomas in head-to-head betting propositions. Thomas registered his sixth Top-10 result last week at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab Challenge by tying for 10th place. He was in contention going into Sunday but he disappointed by shooting 71. Thomas is one of the best ball strikers on the tour — but his short game closer to the green and at the tee may put him at a disadvantage. Thomas ranks 43rd on the tour in Scrambling. He is just 76th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. And he is 80th on the tour in Par-3 Scoring. He returns to this course for the first time since 2016 when he finished 17 over par which ranked 75th best. DeChambeau’s putting and short game make him the better choice. Take DeChambeau (7024) in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament versus Thomas (7023). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The RBC Heritage takes place in the hotter weather of June this year in Hilton Head, South Carolina rather than its traditional April slot next to the Masters. This Pete Dye designed course at the Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour at 7099 yards. Placement of the ball for approach shots usually defines success at this course. Course management and smarts are placed at a premium with strong iron play and shot-shaping. Bombers typically do not retain their advantage at this course that rewards small-ball. While there is minimal rough, there are plenty of hazards with seventeen penalty areas for hitting the ball into the ocean with 54 sand traps protecting the greens and trees shaping this links course. This course also has small greens with an average of 3700 square feet per putting surface. Course history concerning birdie percentage along with Par-3 and Par-4 scoring averages on the tour along with Bogey Avoidance are a few of the deeper metrics that have translated into empirical success at this event. C.T. Pan won their tournament last year by shooting 12-under par despite shooting below average in Fairways Hit and posting a middling Greens-In-Regulation mark. Pan was 2nd that week in Putts-per-Greens-In-Regulation and 7th in Proximity to the hole (in the approach). Pan was the fourth straight older who their first PGA Tour event on this course — so fading the some of the favorites may make sense this week. The average score from the field last year was 71.170 for this Par-71 course.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers most value relative to their odds is on Webb Simpson who Bovada lists at 28-1 to win this tournament. Simpson was our Best Bet last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge but he disappointed by missing the cut. I am not jumping off the bandwagon on one of the best ball strikers on the tour after he missed the cut for just the third time in his last twenty-four events. Going into this event with a chip on his shoulder with something to prove while also getting the weekend off should help him this week. The 34-year old was enjoying one of his best starts to the new season in his career with four top-three finishes including winning the President’s Cup in the fall before winning at the TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. Simpson still ranks 16th this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Furthermore, Simpson is 4th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total Score — and he is 7th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Simpson thrives on tighter courses that do not reward big hitters off the tee. He ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in Scoring Average — and he leads the tour in Birdies Average. He also leads the tour in Bogey Avoidance. Simpson is also a great scrambler — he currently ranks 5th in that metric this season after finishing 2nd in scrambling on the tour for the ’18-19 season. And Simpson ranks 13th in Shots-Gained: Putting. This course better suits his strong irons work and outstanding short game. Simpson loves this Pete Dye course that fits his game quite well. He has made all nine of the cuts in his professional appearances here. He has posted six Top-Ten finishes here including a playoff loss in 2013. Simpson is linked with Patrick Reed in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament. Reed returned to action last week with a tie for 7th place at the Charles Schwab Challenge. But this is his first time back at Harbour Town since 2015 where he missed the cut. He finished tied for 48th and tied for 71st in 2014 and 2013 so perhaps those disappointing results were why Reed decided to forego the trip to Hilton Head for his schedule. Reed has a great short game while being one of the best putters on the tour. He is a solid but not elite ball-striker — he ranks 30th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. But Reed can get himself into trouble as he ranks 203rd on the tour in Proximity to the Hole which is not the formula for success that C.J. Tran deployed in winning this event last year. Furthermore, Reed ranks 80th on the tour in Par-3 Scoring while ranking just 50th in Bogey Avoidance. Take Simpson (7016) in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament versus Reed (7015). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Tour returns from the stoppage of play in mid-March given COVID-19 precautions with the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. This is a golf course where good scores will be depending heavily on the quality of the second shot. Driving accuracy is an important metric to consider along with Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Given the long layoff from tournament action, I will be putting even more emphasis on that latter metric as I will be looking for golfers who are consistent ball-strikers. This tournament usually sees one of the lowest eagle rates on the PGA Tour. The last debutante to win this event was Sergio Garcia back in 2001 — so course experience is also an issue. These Texas tournaments in the warmer weather also lend itself to high winds — so golfers with a good acumen to handle that adversity is another factor I am considering.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Webb Simpson who Bovada lists at +2200 odds to hoist the trophy. Simpson is consistently one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour. He currently ranks 16th this season in SHots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Furthermore, Simpson is 6th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total Score — and he is 7th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Simpson thrives on tighter courses that do not reward big hitters off the tee. He ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in Scoring Average — and he leads the tour in Birdies Average. He also leads the tour in Bogey Avoidance. The 34-year old was enjoying one of his best starts to the new season in his career with four top-three finishes including winning the President’s Cup in the fall before winning at the TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. This course better suits his strong irons work and outstanding short game. This is Simpson’s sixth appearance at this event where he finished tied for 3rd place in 2016 and then tied for 5th place in 2017. Simpson is linked with Bryson DeChambeau for head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament. DeChambeau comes off a solo 4th place, a solo 2nd place, and a tie for 5th place in his last three starts before the stoppage in play. DeChambeau is a bomber who leads the PGA Tour in average Driving Distance this season. But he ranks just 122nd on the tour for the 2019-20 season in Driving Accuracy — so this may not be the best course to match his skill set. DeChambeau has broken par in just two rounds in his four appearances at this tournament — and he only made one cut in back in 2018 when he finished tied for 42nd place. If DeChambeau does get into trouble off the tee, he does not have elite skills to save himself as he ranks just 66th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Take Simpson (7045) in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament versus DeChambeau (7046). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Tour returns from the stoppage of play in mid-March given COVID-19 precautions with the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. This is a golf course where good scores will be depending heavily on the quality of the second shot. Driving accuracy is an important metric to consider along with Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Given the long layoff from tournament action, I will be putting even more emphasis on that latter metric as I will be looking for golfers who are consistent ball-strikers. This tournament usually sees one of the lowest eagle rates on the PGA Tour. The last debutante to win this event was Sergio Garcia back in 2001 — so course experience is also an issue. These Texas tournaments in the warmer weather also lend itself to high winds — so golfers with a good acumen to handle that adversity is another factor I am considering.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +2500 according to Bovada to win this tournament. Koepka has struggled for the 2019-20 season. He has communicated his disappointment with his coaching — and that finally prompted him to visit Tiger Woods’ former guru in Butch Harmon in preparation for the Player’s Championship. While that event was canceled after Day One due to COVID-19, Koepka looked transformed at TPC Sawgrass with his 2-under par round of golf on that fateful Thursday. Koepka has the reputation of saving his best performances for the majors — but he is looking to re-establish his confidence with the return to action after his frustrations earlier in the year. In that respect, the stoppage of play offers Koepka a blank slate to get things going again — and he was also recovering from a three-month break after last season when he endured a partially torn patella tendon in his left leg. Remember, Koepka was the number one ranked player in the world last year after winning two majors with the PGA Championship and the US Open. This will be his second appearance at “Hogan’s Alley” after registering a 2nd place finish at the Colonial Country Club in 2018. He enjoyed two scores of 63 that week — so he will be confident he can put up some big numbers this time around. Koepka is linked with Bryson DeChambeau for head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament. DeChambeau comes off a solo 4th place, a solo 2nd place, and a tie for 5th place in his last three starts before the stoppage in play. DeChambeau is a bomber who leads the PGA Tour in average Driving Distance this season. But he ranks just 122nd on the tour for the 2019-20 season in Driving Accuracy — so this may not be the best course to match his skill set. DeChambeau has broken par in just two rounds in his four appearances at this tournament — and he only made one cut in back in 2018 when he finished tied for 42nd place. If DeChambeau does get into trouble off the tee, he does not have elite skills to save himself as he ranks just 66th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Take Koepka (7040) in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament versus DeChambeau (7039). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Tour returns from the stoppage of play in mid-March given COVID-19 precautions with the Charles Schwab Challenge at the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. This is a golf course where good scores will be depending heavily on the quality of the second shot. Driving accuracy is an important metric to consider along with Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Given the long layoff from tournament action, I will be putting even more emphasis on that latter metric as I will be looking for golfers who are consistent ball-strikers. This tournament usually sees one of the lowest eagle rates on the PGA Tour. The last debutante to win this event was Sergio Garcia back in 2001 — so course experience is also an issue. These Texas tournaments in the warmer weather also lend itself to high winds — so golfers with a good acumen to handle that adversity is another factor I am considering.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Kevin Kisner who Bovada lists at +8000 to win this tournament. Kisner plays his best golf on shorter and more traditional courses that do not reward big hitters off the tee. Kisner is a ball-striker who has had success in Texas — he won the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play last year in Austin. Kisner also won this tournament in 2017 — and he gushes about this course. Read Kisner’s words about the Colonial Country Club as you consider +8000: "It's definitely at the top of my list when I set a schedule. I love the golf course. It reminds me of home … I grew up on a course with small greens pushed up, and you got to hit your numbers and be in the right quadrant. That's what Colonial is all about, and I just love being here, being able to compete … In my opinion, too many courses are getting too long, too big, and guys are having too much advantage with power … This is the kind of golf course that I dream about playing." With the long layoff, some of the top favorites may be using this tournament to shake off some rust — but Kisner knows he needs to take full advantage of a golf course that fits his skill set. Kisner is linked with Joel Dahmen in head-to-head betting propositions for the tournament this week. The stoppage at play came at a very inopportune time for the 33-year old as he went into the Player’s Championship off two straight 5th place finishes. Dahmen has recorded 17 eagles this season which is 16th best on the tour — but it will be difficult for him to register eagles on this course. Dahmen falls to just 140th on the PGA Tour this season in Birdies or Better Percentage. He can struggle with his short game as he ranks 61st in the Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. His biggest liability is his putting as he ranks 170th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Kisner (7002) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Dahmen (7001) this week. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Players Championship takes place on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra, Florida. The undeclared “fifth major” on the PGA Tour is a Pat Dye course consisting of just under 7200 total yards. This event had taken place in May from 2007 to 2018 before moving back to its traditional March date last year. The primary rough is 2 1/2 long. There is plenty of water. As with all Dye designed courses, outstanding ball striking skills are required to succeed. The professionals find it difficult to overpower the course. Four Par-4s consisting of 460 or more yards are frequently bogeyed or double-bogeyed. The Bermuda greens are considered very fast.

Our Best Bet to win the Players Championship is on Rory McIlroy who is the favorite to win this event with Bovada listing him at 7.5-1 odds. It is hard to not include McIlory in our trio of betting options. He has registered seven straight Top-5 finishes worldwide — and he has closed in the Top-7 or better in twenty-one of his last twenty-two rounds on the tour. McIlroy is the defending champion of this event after lifting the trophy with his 16-under effort last year. No one has ever won back-to-back titles at this tournament which is a strike against McIlroy this week. However, after finishing tied for 5th place last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the Irishman is anxious to register his first title since a World Golf Championship event the first weekend of November. Overall, McIlroy has made the cut six times in his ten appearances at this tournament with four Top-10 finishes. The analytics love McIlroy’s game right now: he leads the PGA Tour in 2019-20 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, Adjusted Scoring, Par-5 Scoring, Par-4 Scoring while ranking tied for second in Bogey Avoidance. McIlroy also leads the field this week in adjusted performance when putting on fast greens since 2018. McIlroy is linked with Jon Rahm in matchup head-to-head betting propositions this week. Rahm was the leader of this event after 54 holes last year before his 76 on Sunday saw him plummet to a tie for 12th place. Rahm has struggled in his other two appearances as he missed the cut in his debut in 2017 before finishing tied for 63rd place in 2018. The deeper analytics suggest this course is not an ideal fit for Rahm’s skill set as he has only finished in the Top-Ten in a Shots-Gained metric just one time when he was 5th last year in Shots-Gained: Approach. Rahm tends to thrive on courses that will rewards his power off the tee — he ranks 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But Rahm’s short game is a weakness as he ranks 49th in Shots-Gained: Approach-to-Green and 87th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Rahm is an excellent ball striker who ranks 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — but that is not quite at McIlroy’s level. And while Rahm ranks 7th in this field in adjusted performance when putting on fast greens since 2018, that is also not quite at McIlroy’s level either. Take McIlroy (7187) in matchup head-to-head propositions versus Rahm (7188). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The Players Championship takes place on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra, Florida. The undeclared “fifth major” on the PGA Tour is a Pat Dye course consisting of just under 7200 total yards. This event had taken place in May from 2007 to 2018 before moving back to its traditional March date last year. The primary rough is 2 1/2 long. There is plenty of water. As with all Dye designed courses, outstanding ball striking skills are required to succeed. The professionals find it difficult to overpower the course. Four Par-4s consisting of 460 or more yards are frequently bogeyed or double-bogeyed. The Bermuda greens are considered very fast.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites to win this event is on Adam Scott who is listed at 33-1 odds to win according to Bovada. Scott was our Top Overlay Bet last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational but his bad opening round at Bay Hill doomed his round as he missed the cut. Frankly, that may serve as a blessing in his disguise for him this week as he is rested and ready after not playing over the weekend. Scott is playing some of the best golf of his career right now after plummeting to 76th in the Official World Golf Rankings in the summer of 2018. Scott recovered in the 2018-19 campaign by ranking 4th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while also ranking 4th in Shots-Gained: Approach-to-Green and 10th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Overall, Scott has re-established himself as one the elite professionals in the world by ranking 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. The veteran has not played many events in 2019-20 but his results have been spectacular as he won the PGA Australian Open before Christmas before taking two months off to then return to then win the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club (where he was our Long Shot to win at 28-1 odds). Scott has a great track record on this course where he has the second best average score (to Sergio Garcia) for the professionals who have played here at least ten times. Scott won this event in 2004 and has finished T-12 or better in each of his last four appearances. Scott also ranks 5th in this field in adjusted performance when putting on fast greens since 2018. Scott is linked with Xander Schauffele this for First Round head-to-head betting. Schauffele finished tied for 2nd place in his debut at this event two years ago but took a big step back last year by missing the cut at this tournament. Putting is my biggest concern for Schauffele who ranks outside the the Top-15 in this field in adjusted performance when putting on fast greens since 2018. The putter is the weakness in Schauffele’s game as he ranks just 113th on the tour for 2019-20 in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also ranks 58th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Schauffele is a good ball striker as he ranks 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — but he is not superior to Scott in that metric. Schauffele comes off a tie for 24th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Since winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first weekend of 2020, Schauffele has failed to register a Top-10 result. Take Scott (7110) in First Round head-to-head betting propositions over Schauffele (7109). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Players Championship takes place on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra, Florida. The undeclared “fifth major” on the PGA Tour is a Pat Dye course consisting of just under 7200 total yards. This event had taken place in May from 2007 to 2018 before moving back to its traditional March date last year. The primary rough is 2 1/2 long. There is plenty of water. As with all Dye designed courses, outstanding ball striking skills are required to succeed. The professionals find it difficult to overpower the course. Four Par-4s consisting of 460 or more yards are frequently bogeyed or double-bogeyed. The Bermuda greens are considered very fast.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Justin Thomas who is listed at 14-1 odds to win this event according to Bovada. Thomas enters this event rested having not in three weeks since finishing tied for 6th place at WGC-Mexican Invitational. Thomas’ skill set is ideal for the challenges at the TPC Sawgrass. He is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking 12th in Greens-In-Regulation. Thomas has been incredibly consistent with twelve Top-20 results in his last fourteen events. He also finished tied for 3rd place at TPC Scottsdale which featured overseeded Bermuda greens that is similar to the putting surface this week. Thomas ranks 2nd in the field this week in adjusted performance when putting on fast greens. Thomas has made all five of the cuts in his five appearances at this event peaking with a tied for 3rd place. With twelve career wins as a professional including the PGA Championship, Thomas has the championship experience to hoist the trophy this week. Thomas is linked with Rickie Fowler in First Round head-to-head betting. Fowler has been so lacking in form as of late that he needed his tie for 18th place at Bay Hill last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational just to qualify for this event. Fowler rates just 78th this season in Par-4 Scoring while also ranking 113th in Par-5 Scoring. He also is just 131st in the Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Fowler’s putting has been his most consistent aspect of his game yet he ranks outside the Top-15 in this field in adjusted performance when putting on fast greens since 2018. Fowler won this event in 2015 but has missed the cut in two of his last four performances here with his best finish being a tie for 47th place over that span. Take Thomas (7185) over Fowler (7186) in First Round head-to-head betting. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at the Bay Hill Country Club in Orlando, Florida. This was the most difficult Par 72 on the PGA Tour last season with the average score coming in a 72.37. Consisting of 7454 yards with eight water hazards, the Par 4s are particularly difficult with the professionals suffering bogeys or worse more than 20% of the time last year. Success on this course requires the pros to take advantage of the four Par 5s — these holes were Birdied or better 35% of the time in last year’s event. The professionals only managed a Greens-In-Regulation rate of 57.64% last year which was the fifth lowest number on the PGA Tour last season. The golfer who will lift the championship trophy will need to be adept with all the clubs in their bag. Francisco Molinari won last year’s event with these statistics: he finished tied for the 3rd in the field in Fairways Hit, tied for 1st place in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, tied for 6th place for Greens-In-Regulation, 18th place in Proximity to the Hole, 4th in Shots-Gained: Putting, and 5th in Scrambling. The putting surface is Bermuda Greens so golfers who thrive on this surface will also be privileged.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best value relative to their odds is on Adam Scott who is listed at 25-1 odds to win this event according to Bovada. Scott is playing some of the best golf of his career right now after plummeting to 76th in the Official World Golf Rankings in the summer of 2018. Scott recovered in the 2018-19 campaign by ranking 4th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while also ranking 4th in Shots-Gained: Approach-to-Green and 10th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Overall, Scott re-established himself as one the elite professionals in the world by ranking 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. The veteran has not played many events in 2019-20 but his results have been spectacular as he won the PGA Australian Open before Christmas before taking two months off to then return to then win the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club (where he was our Long Shot to win at 28-1 odds). Scott’s next and most recent event was then at the WGC-Mexico Invitational where he finished T-26th. Scott has a made all four of the cuts he has played here since 2014 with a 3rd place finish in 2014 and a T-12 in 2016. He is 5th on the tour this season in Eagles per hole percentage while also ranking 8th in Par 3 Scoring — so he can take advantage of the Par 3s and Par 5s this week. Scott also ranks 13th in the field in adjusted performance when putting on Bermuda Greens since 2018. Scott is linked with Jason Day in 1st Round head-to-head betting propositions for Thursday. Day won this event in 2016 and had not missed the cut here in six straight appearances before making a quick exit last year after he was dealing with back injuries. Frankly, I think Day is living off his past reputation. While he did finish 4th at Pebble Beach earlier this year, his last tournament was a disappointing T-69 at the PGA Genesis Invitational. Day’s reputation is a ball-striker and an elite putter — but the analytics have not borne this out as of late. Day was just 55th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. While that number has improved so far this season to 9th on the tour (along with him leading the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green), Day ranks just 51st in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and a rough 144th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation. The weakness in Day’s game is in the approach with his wedges — after ranking 127th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green (measuring outside 50 yards from the green) last year, he ranks just 146th in Shots-Gained: Approach-to-Green so far this season. Perhaps what is most disappointing with Day’s game so far for 2019-20 is his putting as he ranks 159th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. With Scott in better form and with just two weeks off as opposed to Day’s three week break, I expect him to score better in Round One. Take Scott (7113) versus Day in 1st Round betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at the Bay Hill Country Club in Orlando, Florida. This was the most difficult Par 72 on the PGA Tour last season with the average score coming in a 72.37. Consisting of 7454 yards with eight water hazards, the Par 4s are particularly difficult with the professionals suffering bogeys or worse more than 20% of the time last year. Success on this course requires the pros to take advantage of the four Par 5s — these holes were Birdied or better 35% of the time in last year’s event. The professionals only managed a Greens-In-Regulation rate of 57.64% last year which was the fifth lowest number on the PGA Tour last season. The golfer who will lift the championship trophy will need to be adept with all the clubs in their bag. Francisco Molinari won last year’s event with these statistics: he finished tied for the 3rd in the field in Fairways Hit, tied for 1st place in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, tied for 6th place for Greens-In-Regulation, 18th place in Proximity to the Hole, 4th in Shots-Gained: Putting, and 5th in Scrambling. The putting surface is Bermuda Greens so golfers who thrive on this surface will also be privileged.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Rory McIlroy who is the betting favorite to win this event at 5.5-1 odds according to Bovada. Admittedly, I don’t love those short odds — but if we have three chips to use to invest in this event (as is my standard recommendation), I do not want to be left out of the cold if McIlroy wins this event for the second time in his career. McIlroy is playing as strong of golf as anyone in the world. Since the Zozo Championship last October, McIlroy sports results of T-3, 1st, 4th, T-3, T-5, 5th in his last six worldwide events. I did pass on him as a 5-1 favorite two weeks ago at the WGC-Mexico Invitational were he finished in 5th place — but his course history is too good to pass up this week. McIlroy has made the cut in all five of his appearances here with a T-4 in 2017 and a T-6 last year surrounding his 1st place finish in 2018. He has finished in the Top-11 or better in four of his five runs here — and he has averaged a score of 69.40 in his last twenty rounds at this tournament. Even for bettors using three chips on my Best Bet, Top Overlay Bet, and Long Shot Bet, the 5.5-1 return from a McIlroy win still turns a profit. It’s worth it. McIlroy leads the field in adjusted-performance when putting on Bermuda Greens since 2018. McIlroy is the best ball striker on the PGA Tour as he has followed up his leading the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for 2018-19 by once again leading the way in that metric so far for 2019-20. McIlroy’s diverse strengths are also illustrated by him ranking tops on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Bogey-Avoidance, and Par-3 Scoring. McIlroy was also 24th last year in Shots-Gained: Putting. So far this season, McIlroy has improved to 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green so his diverse skills makes his a very deserving favorite even with his short odds. McIlroy is matched with Tommy Fleetwood in Tournament head-to-head betting this week. Fleetwood was a big disappointment for us last week as he blew his 1st place lead going into Sunday of the the PGA National by shooting 1over par in a disappointing round that culminated in him hitting into the water on the 18th hole on his second shot where he needed a birdie to force a playoff with Sungjae Kim. Fleetwood has yet to win a PGA Tour event — and the nerves seemed to get the best of him last week. He lost 0.531 strokes Off-the-Tee in the final round while also losing 0.128 strokes Tee-to-Green. Fleetwood is one of the best ball strikers on the tour with him ranking 8th this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. But he only ranks 113th this season in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 54th in Shots-Gained: Putting after ranking 55th in Shots-Gained: Putting last year. Fleetwood does not rank in the Top-15 this week for their adjusted scoring performance on Bermuda Greens since 2018. While he has two Top-10 finishes at this tournament, he lacks the pedigree and the mental game to match McIlroy. Take McIlory (7021) versus Fleetwood (7022) in Tournament Matchups head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at the Bay Hill Country Club in Orlando, Florida. This was the most difficult Par 72 on the PGA Tour last season with the average score coming in a 72.37. Consisting of 7454 yards with eight water hazards, the Par 4s are particularly difficult with the professionals suffering bogeys or worse more than 20% of the time last year. Success on this course requires the pros to take advantage of the four Par 5s — these holes were Birdied or better 35% of the time in last year’s event. The professionals only managed a Greens-In-Regulation rate of 57.64% last year which was the fifth lowest number on the PGA Tour last season. The golfer who will lift the championship trophy will need to be adept with all the clubs in their bag. Francisco Molinari won last year’s event with these statistics: he finished tied for the 3rd in the field in Fairways Hit, tied for 1st place in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, tied for 6th place for Greens-In-Regulation, 18th place in Proximity to the Hole, 4th in Shots-Gained: Putting, and 5th in Scrambling. The putting surface is Bermuda Greens so golfers who thrive on this surface will also be privileged.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites is on Marc Leishman to win this event with Bovada listing him as a 40-1 favorite. Leishman won this tournament in 2017 — and he has notched two more Top-10 finishes along with two more Top-20 results in his ten professional appearances here. The Aussie is in good form this year as he has a nice 1st place result already under his belt at the PGA Farmers Insurance at the end of January — and that result at the difficult Torrey Pines suggests he can play well this week on this difficult course. Leishman has a reputation of being skilled when dealing with winds which will be one of the challenges this week. Leishman finished 7th in Par 3 Scoring last season — and he is 16th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Approach-to-Green in 2019-20. After winning at Torrey Pines, Leishman has disappointed with a T-43rd at the PGA Genesis Invitational and then a T-42 at the WGC-Mexico Invitational — but that has helped make his odds more attractive for us this week. He ranks 4th in the field in adjusted scoring performance when putting on Bermuda Greens since 2018. Leishman is linked with Collin Morikawa for Tournament Matchup head-to-head betting propositions this week. Morikawa received an exemption to play this event last year as an amateur where he finished T-64th — so he has a significant course experience disadvantage when compared to Leishman. Morikawa has been the model of consistency since turning professional last summer as he is second on the tour with nineteen straight cuts made. A T-7th at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in early January is his best result so far this season. While Morikawa is an impressive 10th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — but he still needs work with his 45th ranking in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Teen and 85th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Perhaps the biggest concern for Morikawa this week will be with his putter as he ranks 169th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting while not ranking in the Top-15 in this field in adjusted scoring performance when putting on Bermuda Greens. While he is paired in this proposition because he also finished T-42nd two weeks ago at the WGC-Mexico Invitational, Leishman’s veteran experience and superior diversity of skills should lead him to a better score this week. Take Leishman (7023) versus Morikawa (7024) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head betting propositions this week. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Honda Classic takes place at the PGA National golf course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This Jack Nicklaus-Designed course is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. Winds and water offer challenges to the professionals on a short course consisting of 7125 yards. This was the hardest non-major event last season with the golfers averaging an average of round of 71.06 for the Par 70 course. Keith Mitchell won this tournament last year at -9 under par which was the sixth time in the last seven years that the champion was below double-digits under par. Keith Mitchell won this tournament last year while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Par-3 Scoring while also ranking tied for 2nd in Scrambling — so those are some of the metrics I will be using to handicap this week’s field.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites to win this event is on Harris English who Bovada lists at 60-1. English had his worst season as a professional last year but his best tournament was here where he finished tied for 12th place with two rounds of 68. English has bounced-back with a very nice start to the 2019-20 campaign with four Top-Six finishes. He comes off a tie for 16th place at PGA Pheonix Open. English is 2nd in Greens-in-Regulation this season while also ranking 17th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 17th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — so he has the ball-striking skills to thrive this week. English is linked with Harold Varner III this week in head-to-head betting propositions. Varner comes off a 13th place at the PGA Genesis Invitational which was his best finish so far for the 2019-20 season. He ranks 15th on the tour so far this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green but that may say more about the early numbers for the new campaign when considering he was just 60th on the Tour in 2018-19 in that ball-striking metric. Varner is winless on the tour in his 126 professional events and he may lack the scrambling skills to thrive this week. Varner ranks 93rd on the Tour so far this season in Shots-Gained: Approaching-the-Green. Take English (7117) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Varner III (7118). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Honda Classic takes place at the PGA National golf course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This Jack Nicklaus-Designed course is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. Winds and water offer challenges to the professionals on a short course consisting of 7125 yards. This was the hardest non-major event last season with the golfers averaging an average of round of 71.06 for the Par 70 course. Keith Mitchell won this tournament last year at -9 under par which was the sixth time in the last seven years that the champion was below double-digits under par. Keith Mitchell won this tournament last year while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Par-3 Scoring while also ranking tied for 2nd in Scrambling — so those are some of the metrics I will be using to handicap this week’s field.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who Bovada lists at 12-1 odds to win this event. I am bending my own rules a bit this week with Fleetwood being listed at the identical odds to win this tournament as Fowler as of this writing — although the spirit of the “overlay” concept remains with Fleetwood listed as a 10-1 favorite to win this week at some books. I think Fleetwood offers the second best value to win this tournament this week — so let’s go with him as he looks to register his first victory on the PGA Tour. Fleetwood has not finished worse the tied for 18th place in his five worldwide events this year with this being his first tournament in the US in 2020. Fleetwood has only played this tournament once in 2018 where he finished in 4th place. But he leads the field in sample-size adjusted performance when putting on bermuda greens since 2018. Fleetwood sports some of the best work with his irons on the tour while being adept when handling high winds. Fleetwood led the Tour last year in Scrambling while also ranking 10th in Greens-in-Regulation. Fleetwood is also third in Driving Distance. Fleetwood is linked with Justin Rose in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Rose has three Top-Five finishes at this tournament but he has not played here since 2015. The veteran is simply out of form right now with his 25-1 odds to win this event according to Bovada being based mostly on his career reputation. Rose’s best result for 2019-20 is a tied for 28th place last November. He comes off a tie for 56th place at the PGA Genesis Open two weeks ago after missing the cut as the defending champion at his previous tournament at the PGA Farmer’s Insurance Open. Take Fleetwood (7123) against Rose (7124) in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The Honda Classic takes place at the PGA National golf course in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. This Jack Nicklaus-Designed course is one of the most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. Winds and water offer challenges to the professionals on a short course consisting of 7125 yards. This was the hardest non-major event last season with the golfers averaging an average of round of 71.06 for the Par 70 course. Keith Mitchell won this tournament last year at -9 under par which was the sixth time in the last seven years that the champion was below double-digits under par. Keith Mitchell won this tournament last year while leading the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Par-3 Scoring while also ranking tied for 2nd in Scrambling — so those are some of the metrics I will be using to handicap this week’s field.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Rickie Fowler who Bovada lists at 12-1 odds to win this tournament. The local Jupiter resident is the all-time money-leader at this tournament who has made seven of eight cuts here since 2012. Fowler is a past winner of this event who also finished tied for 2nd place last year. Overall, he has a four Top-10 finishes here. Fowler has shot in the 60s in eight of his last fourteen rounds at this tournament. Fowler was 13th on the PGA Tour last season in Shots-Gained: Putting and he ranks third of the field for this tournament in sample-size adjusted performance when putting on bermuda greens. Fowler is linked with Viktor Hovland in head-to-head betting propositions this week. The 22-year old comes off a victory last weekend at the Puerto Rico Open in an event that did not have most of the top level professionals competing given the World Golf Championships in Mexico City occurring as well. I suspect that Hovland is due for a letdown this week. He lacks experience at this golf course. And his ball-striking is not elite given his ranking of 57th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Fowler (7127) versus Hovland (7128) in head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The World Golf Championships take center stage this week with the Mexico Championship at the Club de Golf Chapultec in Mexico City which is hosting this event for the fourth straight year. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7355 yards — but the high altitude that approaches 7800 square feet above sea level adds about 10% distance for the professionals given the thinner air. The putting surface is Poa Annua greens.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Justin Thomas who is listed at 11-1 odds to win this event according to Bovada. Thomas has a great history at this event since it was moved to Mexico City with a tie for 5th place, 2nd place, and 9th place results in his three appearances here. Thomas has registered rounds of 62 here in each of the last two years. Thomas should be pretty ornery this week after being the highest-ranked professional last week to miss the cut at the PGA Genesis Invitational. Thomas has won the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in 2020 while also ranking in 3rd place at the PGA Phoenix Open  three weeks ago. Thomas ranks 6th on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he is also 8th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach. His course history along with his motivation to redeem himself from missing the cut last week makes his intriguing. Thomas is linked with Webb Simpson in head-to-head propositions. Simpson has underachieved at this tournament with a tie for 37th place in 2018 before finishing tied for 39th place here last year. Simpson comes off winning the PGA Phoenix Open and he also finished in 3rd place at Waialae in January. He tops the PGA tour in Adjusted Scoring. Simpson does tend to do better on bermuda turf rather than the Kikuyo grass featured here. Simpson also ranks just 70th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — so while the altitude will help his length, his course history suggests this weakness in his game has held him back at this event relative to his bigger hitting peers. Take Thomas (7549) in head-to-head betting propositions against Simpson (7550). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The World Golf Championships take center stage this week with the Mexico Championship at the Club de Golf Chapultec in Mexico City which is hosting this event for the fourth straight year. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7355 yards — but the high altitude that approaches 7800 square feet above sea level adds about 10% distance for the professionals given the thinner air. The putting surface is Poa Annua greens.

Our Best Bet to win this event is with Dustin Johnson who Bovada lists at 7-1 odds to win this tournament. Johnson has been fantastic on this course with victories last year along with the inaugural run here in 2017 along with a 7th place finish in 2018. Johnson has averaged a 67.08 score in those twelve rounds — and he has scored in the 60s in eleven straight rounds at this tournament. Johnson was dominant last year with his 21 under par finish which was five strokes better than Rory McIlroy. Johnson led the field last year not only in Shots-Gained: Putting but also with 58 Greens-In-Regulation of those 72 holes. Johnson enters this event second in the field in sample-size adjusted performance when putting on Poa Annua greens since 2018. Johnson finished tied for 10th place last week at the PGA Genesis Invitational — that was his third Top-10 finish in four worldwide starts in 2020. Johnson was 4th on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 8th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Johnson has also won three WGC titles in his career which is second best all-time to Tiger Woods. Given his stellar course history, I prefer him to the top favorite to win this event in Rory McIlroy who blew a 54 hole lead last week with a difficult Sunday at the PGA Genesis Invitational. At 5-1 odds for McIlroy according to Bovada, he is an underlay. Johnson is linked with Abraham Ancer in head-to-head betting this week. Ancer has had a nice start to 2020 with a 2nd place at the PGA American Express along with a tie for 6th place at the Saudi Invitational — but he was just tied for 43rd place last week at the PGA Genesis Invitational. But the metrics are not bullish on Ancer. He ranks 32nd on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while also ranking 69th in Shots-Gained: Putting and 101st in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. The Mexican will be comfortable on this course but Johnson is the superior golfer with the pedigree on this course. Take Johnson (7613) in head-to-head betting against Ancer (7614) this week. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The Genesis Invitational takes place at the Riveria Country Club in Los Angeles. This is a difficult Par-71 course with a field average just over par with a score of 71.199. J.B. Holmes won this event last year. He led the field in Shots-Gained: Putting while finishing 9th in Driving Distance, 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and tied for 2nd in Greens-In-Regulation. Holmes also led the field in Par-3 Scoring and tied for 2nd place in Par-4 Scoring. With six of the Par-4 holes coming in at least at 455 yards and the course consisting of 7322 yards overall, big hitters tend to do better here — so Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee is another metric that will be illuminating in handicapping these golfers. Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green will also be important given the difficult Kikuyu grass rough which makes chipping more of a challenge. The last five winners here have averaged +2.52 strokes gains around the green. The putting surface is Poa Annua grass. Interestingly, this difficult course has rewarded prior experience at this tournament over the years. Since 2005, every winner here has needed at least three other appearances at this tournament before lifting the trophy — and only James Hahn in 2015 who won this event in his fourth try has won the championship before their fifth professional start at this tournament.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this tournament is on Adam Scott who is listed by Bovada at 28-1 odds. Scott declares the Riviera Country Club to be his “favorite course” — and he has made the cut in ten of his eleven professional appearances here. Scott was the unofficial winner here in the shortened 36-hole event in 2005. In his seven Top-15 finishes here, Scott finished in 2nd place in 2006 and 2016. He finished tied for 7th place last year. In the last six years at this tournament, Scott ranks 5th best in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green — and he is 3rd in Shots-Gained: Total here since 2015. This is his first event since winning the PGA Australian Championship eight weeks ago so rust is a concern — but his 2nd place finish in 2016 also came off a long layoff. Scott’s game had fallen off over the last few seasons with him dropping to just 76th in the world in the summer of 2018 but he has rededicated himself to his craft and has now risen to 14th in the Official World Golf Rankings. Scott finished 4th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Scott is linked with Danny Willett in head-to-head betting propositions this week. The Englishman comes over to the PGA Tour with the European tour on a break. Willett’s top result in his four professional events in 2019-20 was last month’s tie for 43rd place in Dubai. His profile is middling for the skills needed to succeed at this tournament. Willett was 83rd on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee while averaging just 293.8 yards in Driving Distance which was 98th on the tour. Willett was also 49th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last year — and he was 48th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Take Scott (7154) over Willett (7153) in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Genesis Invitational takes place at the Riveria Country Club in Los Angeles. This is a difficult Par-71 course with a field average just over par with a score of 71.199. J.B. Holmes won this event last year. He led the field in Shots-Gained: Putting while finishing 9th in Driving Distance, 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and tied for 2nd in Greens-In-Regulation. Holmes also led the field in Par-3 Scoring and tied for 2nd place in Par-4 Scoring. With six of the Par-4 holes coming in at least at 455 yards and the course consisting of 7322 yards overall, big hitters tend to do better here — so Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee is another metric that will be illuminating in handicapping these golfers. Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green will also be important given the difficult Kikuyu grass rough which makes chipping more of a challenge. The last five winners here have averaged +2.52 strokes gains around the green. The putting surface is Poa Annua grass. Interestingly, this difficult course has rewarded prior experience at this tournament over the years. Since 2005, every winner here has needed at least three other appearances at this tournament before lifting the trophy — and only James Hahn in 2015 who won this event in his fourth try has won the championship before their fifth professional start at this tournament.

Our Top Overlay Bet who offers the best value relative to their odds to win this tournament is on Bubba Watson who Bovada lists at 22-1 odds. Watson is a three-time winner at this tournament with victories in 2014, 2016, and 2018. Watson also has five other Top-20 finishes at the Rivera Country Club which has been nicknamed as the “Bubba Track” for it fitting his game so well. Watson has gained at least one stroke in putting in evil of his last twenty-six rounds at this tournament — and her has gained in all but two rounds over that span in SG: Off-the-Tee. Watson is in strong form right now with a tie for 6th place at Torrey Pines two weeks ago preceded by a tie for 3rd place at TPC Scottsdale. Watson is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour. He was 3rd on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee while averaging 311.6 yards in Driving Distance. This season, Watson is 9th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee while ranking 3rd on the tour in a Driving Distance of 316.3 yards average. Watson is also 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2019-20 while also ranking 14th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Watson is linked with Brooks Koepka in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Brooks Koepka offers juicy 22-1 odds but he is coming off leg surgery from last October which has limited him to just three events since that time. Koepka is still finding his form with a tie for 34th place in Abu Dhabi followed up with a tie for 19th place in Saudi Arabia. This is also just his second professional appearance at the Genesis Invitational after missing the cut in 2017. Koepka tends to save his “A-Game” for the majors so I will be passing on him this week. Take Watson (7117) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Koepka (7118). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The Genesis Invitational takes place at the Riveria Country Club in Los Angeles. This is a difficult Par-71 course with a field average just over par with a score of 71.199. J.B. Holmes won this event last year. He led the field in Shots-Gained: Putting while finishing 9th in Driving Distance, 11th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and tied for 2nd in Greens-In-Regulation. Holmes also led the field in Par-3 Scoring and tied for 2nd place in Par-4 Scoring. With six of the Par-4 holes coming in at least at 455 yards and the course consisting of 7322 yards overall, big hitters tend to do better here — so Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee is another metric that will be illuminating in handicapping these golfers. Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green will also be important given the difficult Kikuyu grass rough which makes chipping more of a challenge. The last five winners here have averaged +2.52 strokes gains around the green. The putting surface is Poa Annua grass. Interestingly, this difficult course has rewarded prior experience at this tournament over the years. Since 2005, every winner here has needed at least three other appearances at this tournament before lifting the trophy — and only James Hahn in 2015 who won this event in his fourth try has won the championship before their fifth professional start at this tournament.

Our Best Bet to win this event is Dustin Johnson who Bovada lists at 12-1 odds to win this tournament. Johnson checks the box of course experience with a big black sharpie. The veteran won this event in 2017 while ranking 2nd in All-Time money earnings at this event. With eight Top-10 finishes here, Johnson has registered six Top-Five results here as well. In his last six appearances, he has averaged 5.6th place. Furthermore, Johnson has shot in the 60s in twelve of his last sixteen rounds at the Riveria Country Club. Johnson loves to put on Poa Annua greens — and he is 2nd in the field in adjusted scoring performance on this surface since 2018. He has also failed 2 or more strokes putting in ten of his last thirty rounds here. Johnson comes into this event in great form with tie for 7th place at Kapalua last month before a 2nd place finish in Saudi Arabia. He does come off a disappointing tie for 32nd place last week at Pebble Beach but that may just put a chip on his shoulder this week. Johnson finished the 2018-19 season 4th on the Tour in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 4th in Driving Distance with an average of 312 yards off the tee. Johnson was also 8th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Johnson is linked with Tiger Woods in head-to-head betting matchups this week. Tiger Woods is listed at 16-1 odds to win this week — but he has never won at Riveria Country Club with his best result being a 2nd place all the way back to 1999. Woods has solid results at this tournament over the years including a tie for 15th place last year. But Woods has lost some of his strength off the tee in the second half of his career — he averaged just 296.8 yards off the tee last year which makes him not a great fit at this tournament. Woods is always an underlay relative to his odds as a betting favorite with the public — and as the host of this event, Woods’ attentions are divided this week. Additionally, Woods’ true goal is to repeat at the Master’s Open in April. Take Johnson (7007) in head-to-head betting propositions for the week against Woods (7008). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes place at Pebble Beach in Northern California. This is the last event on PGA Tour this season that will rotate courses: each golfer will play a round at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula before the cut with the final round taking place at the famed Pebble Beach course. This is one of the shortest courses on the tour with gusty winds typically a common feature along with small greens and Poa Annua grass putting surfaces. The last five winners have finished Top-Ten in Greens-In-Regulation with the Top-Five finishers last year all finishing twelfth or better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Our Top Overlay on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their betting odds is on Brandt Snedeker who is listed at 22-1 odds to win this event according to Bovada. I like the situation for Snedeker this week who is looking to redeem himself after missing the cut last week at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open. He also missed the cut at this tournament last season — so he has plenty to prove this week. Since missing the cut here last February, Snedeker then made every cut all non-major events he competed in before last week. He finished tied for 3rd place two weeks ago at Torrey Pines at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open so form has not been a problem. And Snedeker has thrived at this tournament having won the event in both 2013 and 2015 as part of his five Top-25 finishes overall at Pebble Beach. Snedeker generally excels at these west coast events. He also thrives on Poa Annua greens where he ranks 7th best in the field in sample-size adjusted performance since 2018. Snedeker is paired with Phil Mickelson in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Mickelson has been out of form so far for 2019-20 with his best finish being a tied for 28th place last October before be broke out with a tie for 3rd place last week at the Saudi Invitational. I am not in love with the prospects of Mickelson playing great this week after flying across the country even with him being the defending champion here (albeit under challenging weather conditions). Lefty is just 58th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season while also ranking 116th in the Greens-In-Regulation for 2019-20. And Mickelson ranks an atrocious 202nd in Shots-Gained: Putting this season which not very encouraging. Take Snedeker (7111) in head-to-head betting propositions this week against Mickelson (7112). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes place at Pebble Beach in Northern California. This is the last event on PGA Tour this season that will rotate courses: each golfer will play a round at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula before the cut with the final round taking place at the famed Pebble Beach course. This is one of the shortest courses on the tour with gusty winds typically a common feature along with small greens and Poa Annua grass putting surfaces. The last five winners have finished Top-Ten in Greens-In-Regulation with the Top-Five finishers last year all finishing twelfth or better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.

There are a number of betting favorites I am dismissing with many of them coming back to the United States this week after playing across the world last weekend in the Saudi Invitational. Dustin Johnson is the betting favorite with Bovada listing him at 6-1 odds. Not only is Johnson possibly dealing with jet lag after his 2nd place finish in Saudi Arabia on Sunday but he has now failed to win a tournament in sixteen straight events. Johnson has a fantastic course history here at Pebble Beach — but he was only tied for 45th place last year. With all these factors, his 6-1 odds represent a big underlay bet — so I am passing at those odds. Patrick Cantlay is the second favorite with Bovada listing him at 10-1 odds. This is Cantlay’s first west coast event this season after he played in Abu Dhabi three weeks ago. Cantlay is fantastic but his course history here is less than desired with a tie for 48th place followed up by a tied for 35th place in his last visit two years again. 20-1 odds would intrigue me — but 10-1 odds are once again underlay territory for me. Jason Day is the third top favorite here with Bovada listing him at 18-1 odds. Day has fallen to 46th in the world rankings so I am not enthused about short odds like this despite his strong course history at Pebble Beach — although he has never won this event in ten visit. I am also passing on Phil Mickelson who has also flown in from Saudi Arabia over the weekend where he finished tied for 3rd place. Frankly, Mickelson’s form has not been great before his nice weekend — and he is unappealing to me at 25-1 odds.

Our Best Bet to win the Pebble Beach Pro-Am is on Paul Casey who Bovada lists at 20-1 odds to win this tournament. Casey is rested for this event after last playing on the west coast swing three weeks ago at he American Express in Coachella Valley where he finished tied for 21st place. Casey finished 2nd in Fairways Hit that week along for tied for 2nd place in Greens-In-Regulation. Casey was the 54-hole leader at this tournament last before finishing tied for 2nd place. He was tied for 8th place two years ago at this event. Casey loves putting on the Poa Annua grass — he ranks 3rd in the field this week in sample-size adjusted performance since 2018 when putting on this surface. Casey’s skill set is tailor-made for this course. He finished the 2018-19 season 4th on the PGA Tour is Greens-In-Regulation — and he was also 6th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Casey is not the biggest driver on the tour — but he is accurate as he ranked 9th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. The short distances this week play into Casey’s accuracy. He is linked in head-to-head betting propositions this week with Nate Lashley who Bovada lists as an 80-1 favorite. The Scottsdale, Arizona native comes off a tied for 3rd place at his home course at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open last week which makes this a very nice fade situation. Lashley missed the cut in the tournament before that at the PGA The American Express at Coachella Valley. Lashley is just 125th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this season after ranking 72nd in that metric for 2018-19. Lashley also ranks 103rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season after ranking just 84th on the tour in that metric last season. Take Casey (7109) in head-to-head betting propositions for the week over Lashley (7110). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am takes place at Pebble Beach in Northern California. This is the last event on PGA Tour this season that will rotate courses: each golfer will play a round at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula before the cut with the final round taking place at the famed Pebble Beach course. This is one of the shortest courses on the tour with gusty winds typically a common feature along with small greens and Poa Annua grass putting surfaces. The last five winners have finished Top-Ten in Greens-In-Regulation with the Top-Five finishers last year all finishing twelfth or better in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the Top-Ten favorites to win this event is on Adam Hadwin who is listed at 50-1 to win this tournament. Hadwin is a new poppa in 2020 with him returning from paternity leave last week where he made the cut to finish to finish tied for 40th place. Hadwin finished in 2nd place in his previous event in mid-December at the President’s Cup before having his baby. Hadwin also finished in 2nd place in the PGA Safeway Open back in September in his last tournament in California. Hadwin is not a big hitter so the shorter distances will play into his outstanding accuracy off the tee. Hadwin is 10th on the PGA Tour so far for this season in Shots-Gained: Total propelled by ranking 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 29th in the Greens-In-Regulation. He finished in 18th place at this event last season while ranking 13th out of the field that week in Greens-In-Regulation. He also ranks 8th in the field this week in sample-size adjusted performance since 2018 when putting on Poa Annua greens. Hadwin is linked with Cameron Champ in head-to-head betting propositions this week. Champ is listed as a 40-1 favorite to win this event according to Bovada. Champ won the PGA Safeway Open last September and comes off a 16th place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. Champ finished behind Hadwin last season in his debut at this tournament by finished in 28th place. Champ is one of the biggest hitters on the tour — he tops the PGA Tour right now with his average driving distance of 322.4 yards which has also propelled him to leading the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But that skill set is not a great fit for this course — and I worry about him ranking 180th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 118th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Champ does rank just behind Hadwin this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green at 18th — but he is only 56th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation. Take Hadwin (7016) in head-to-head betting propositions this week against Champ (7015). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open takes place at the TPC Scottsdale in Scottsdale, Arizona. 132 golfers will compete on this Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. This is a unique event because of the party atmosphere that accompanies the most raucous crowd on the entire PGA Tour. Newcomers may not be accustomed to this actively and lack of serenity that exists in most other events. The winning score for eleven of the last twelve winners has been in the 14 under par to 18 under par range — so the champion will likely need to average -3 under to -5 under par per round. Ball strikers tend to thrive on this course with three of the last four winners of this event finishing in the top-two by the end of the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. In last year’s tournament won by Rickie Fowler, the top six finishers in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green all finished in the top-21 in the final standings which continued a pattern at this event since 2016. We also want to consider Driving Distance since the manageable conditions in the rough at this desert course make big drives that fly off the fairway still very much playable in still getting to the green at the shorter distance.

Our Long Shot on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites to win this event is on Brandt Snedeker who Bovada lists at 33-1 odds to win this tournament. Snedeker is playing great golf right now after his final round of 64 saw him finish in 3rd place last week at Torrey Pines in the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. Snedeker has made the cut in all five of his events so far for the 2019-20 season with three Top-25 results (including two straight). Snedeker has been very consistent when playing at the TPC Scottsdale where he has made the cut in 11 of his 12 appearances including his last nine events here. Snedeker has finished in the Top-Ten here four times. Snedeker is one of the best golfers in the world when working out of the sand or chipping — he ranked 3rd last season in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Snedeker is also carrying a hot putter this season as he ranks 9th in Shots-Gained: Putting — and his putter has helped him rank 24th on the tour for 2019-20 in Scoring Average. Snedeker is linked with Scottie Scheffler in head-to-head betting propositions this week. We faded the 23-year old last week at the PGA Farmers Insurance and the rookie missed the cut for the first time in his nine events this season. As these fields get deeper as we approach the Master’s Open, many of the first-year professionals take a step back in face of the competition. This is also Scheffler’s professional debut at this event so he may not respond well to the unique environment of the heavily-lubricated gallery. Scheffler does have four Top-10 finishes under his belt. He is a bomber who is 11th on the tour by averaging 311.8 yards off the tee. But Scheffler’s closing ability remains an issue as he ranks 81st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting and 136th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Tee. I don’t like the mix of his mediocre short game combining with his first experience with an “energetic” crowd that play on his nerves. I much prefer the steady veteran in Snedeker. Take Snedeker (7015) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Scheffler (7016). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The PGA Farmers Insurance Open takes place at the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolley, California outside San Diego. The players will rotate between two courses for the first two rounds with the North Course being 7250 yards while the newly constructed South Course will represent the longest course in PGA history consisting of 7765 yards which is 67 yards farther than the two previous US Opens that held the previous PGA record for overall length. Beside the two Par-5s on the South Course, it has six Par-4 holes that are at least 450 yards long. So distance off the tee will be a factor. Justin Rose won this event last year while finishing tied for 8th for the event Fairways Hit and tied for 2nd place in hitting Greens-In-Regulation. Rose also was 2nd that week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and led the field in Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage on the Poa Annua greens. Those are the analytics that I will be privileging when assessing golfers for this event.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds to win this event is on Jon Rahm who is an 8-1 favorite to win this event according to Bovada. Rahm won his first PGA Tour event here in 2017 as a 22-year old and loves the San Diego area (he claims he would live there if not for the state taxes). After finishing tied for 29th in his title defense, Rahm than scored a first round of 62 before finishing tied for 5th place last year. Rahm comes off a 10th place finish two weeks ago in Hawai’i in the Sentry Tournament of Champions after winning twice world wide last fall. Rahm is a bomber who fits well with long courses — he ranked 5th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last year. Rahm also ranked 10th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Gree and 23rd in Par-Five Scoring. Rahm is also an excellent putter — he ranked 12th in Putting: Birdies-or-Better Percentage last season. Rahm is paired in head-to-head betting propositions with Tiger Woods. Woods is listed as the third top favorite to win this event by Bovada at 11-1 odds based off his strong course history. Woods has won this event seven times while also winning the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines. But Woods has not finished better than tied for 20th place at this tournament in five years. Woods has also proclaimed that he is “testing” out a new set of wood drivers this week to see if he wants to use them this season. Take Rahm (7117) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Woods (7118). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Farmers Insurance Open takes place at the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolley, California outside San Diego. The players will rotate between two courses for the first two rounds with the North Course being 7250 yards while the newly constructed South Course will represent the longest course in PGA history consisting of 7765 yards which is 67 yards farther than the two previous US Opens that held the previous PGA record for overall length. Beside the two Par-5s on the South Course, it has six Par-4 holes that are at least 450 yards long. So distance off the tee will be a factor. Justin Rose won this event last year while finishing tied for 8th for the event Fairways Hit and tied for 2nd place in hitting Greens-In-Regulation. Rose also was 2nd that week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and led the field in Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage on the Poa Annua greens. Those are the analytics that I will be privileging when assessing golfers for this event.

For those buying my full betting report for this tournament, here are some of the leading contenders that I am bypassing this week. Xander Schauffele is a 16-1 favorite according to Bovada which places him as the 4th top favorite to with this event. As a San Diego native, Schauffele considers this his home event — but perhaps that pressure has been too much for him. He missed the cut at this tournament for his first three visits before breaking through last year by tying for 25th place. Bovada lists Justin Rose as the 5th top favorite at 18-1 — but I do not like him flying across the world from his event in Singapore earlier this week. Rose’s success last year was very dependent on a hot putter — even slight regression on his putting this week likely puts him off the lead. Rickie Fowler is listed as a 20-1 favorite to with this event but he has an uninspiring recent record here as well having finished outside the top-60 in his last six trips here.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Rory McIlroy who Bovada lists as the favorite to win this event at 6-1 odds. McIlroy finished tied for 5th place in his debut at Torrey Pines last year in what was a determined effort to play more on the PGA Tour to prepare for the four majors. McIlroy won four worldwide events last season headlined by taking home the FedEx Tour Championship in August. He enters this event rested coming off a 4th place finish two months ago at the DP World Tour Championship to close out the European Tour. McIlroy’s skill set is a great fit for this course. McIlroy led the PGA Tour last season in both Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Putting: Birdies or Better. McIlroy was also 12th on the tour in Par-Five Scoring. A McIlroy victory this week firmly place him as the number one ranked player in the world. McIlroy is matched with Tiger Woods in head-to-head wagering for this tournament as well. Woods is listed as the third top favorite to win this event by Bovada at 11-1 odds based off his strong course history. Woods has won this event seven times while also winning the 2008 US Open at Torrey Pines. But Woods has not finished better than tied for 20th place at this tournament in five years. Woods has also proclaimed that he is “testing” out a new set of wood drivers this week to see if he wants to use them this season. The Master’s is Woods’ highest priority at this point of his career as he chases Jack Nicklaus for most Major Championships. With Woods being rusty and not having the same motivations as McIlroy who still cares about his world ranking (and winning more trophies), I strongly prefer the Irishman. Take McIlroy (7039) in head-to-head propositions versus Woods (7040). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Farmers Insurance Open takes place at the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolley, California outside San Diego. The players will rotate between two courses for the first two rounds with the North Course being 7250 yards while the newly constructed South Course will represent the longest course in PGA history consisting of 7765 yards which is 67 yards farther than the two previous US Opens that held the previous PGA record for overall length. Beside the two Par-5s on the South Course, it has six Par-4 holes that are at least 450 yards long. So distance off the tee will be a factor. Justin Rose won this event last year while finishing tied for 8th for the event Fairways Hit and tied for 2nd place in hitting Greens-In-Regulation. Rose also was 2nd that week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and led the field in Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage on the Poa Annua greens. Those are the analytics that I will be privileging when assessing golfers for this event.

Our Long Shot Bet to win this event with a golfer listed outside the Top Ten is on Cameron Smith who is listed at 40-1 odds according to Bovada. The Aussie comes off winning the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i two weekends ago where he pulled out the victory in a playoff to pay off bettors as a 60-1 favorite. Smith has added power to his game which has helped his finish tied for 20th place two years ago before his impressive tied for 9th place here last season. Smith can get himself out of trouble with his wedges as he ranked 21st on the PGA Tour last year in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. So far for the 2019-20 season, Smith ranks in Shots-Gained: Total while also ranking 8th in Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage. Smith is linked with Scottie Scheffler in head-to-head betting propositions. I am not bullish on Scheffler with this being his professional debut at Torrey Pines. There is no question that the 23-year old is off to a great start this season with three Top-Five finishes in his first four starts — but this will be a dramatic bump up in competition this week. Scheffler is green at this point in his career — and he displayed nerves last week. After being the co-leader after rounds two and three of the the American Express, he shot only 2-under on Sunday (on a relatively easy course) to finish in 3rd place three shots from the winner. Take Smith (7032) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Scheffler. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The American Express takes place in the Coachella Valley in Palm Springs. This Pro-Am is formerly known as the Bob Hope Classic among a few past iterations. With 156 professionals entered in this event, the first three rounds take place on the La Quinta Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course respectively with the cut occurring after those 54 holes. The final round then takes place on the Stadium Course. With good weather expected, low scores are expected. Adam Long won this event last year at -26 under par.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Harris English who Bovada lists at 50-1 to win this event. English is one of the hottest golfers on the tour right now with four Top-Six finishes in his six events for 2019-20. English is 3rd on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation in 2019-20 while also ranking 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. English finished tied for 18th place here last season. He is 7th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this season which combines nicely with him ranking 15th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season. His overall balance in his skill set has helped him rank 8th in Shots-Gained: Total for 2019-20. English is paired with Lucas Glover for head-to-head betting propositions for Day One. Glover has had a solid but unspectacular start to the 2019-20 season. He was 12th at this tournament last year but he missed the cut last fall in his only event in California at the Safeway Open. Glover does not have the profile to put up big numbers this week — he was 125th on the tour last year in Eagles Percentage while ranking just 47th on the tour in Birdies Average. Take English (7015) versus Glover (7016) in head-to-head betting propositions on Day One. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The American Express takes place in the Coachella Valley in Palm Springs. This Pro-Am is formerly known as the Bob Hope Classic among a few past iterations. With 156 professionals entered in this event, the first three rounds take place on the La Quinta Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course respectively with the cut occurring after those 54 holes. The final round then takes place on the Stadium Course. With good weather expected, low scores are expected. Adam Long won this event last year at -26 under par.

Our Best Bet to win this event is Rickie Fowler who is the favorite to win this event according to Bovada at 11-1 odds. Let’s go with the five-time winner on the PGA Tour who is a Southern California native whose last victory on the tour was at the WM Phoenix in another west coast tournament where he won by four strokes after leading the field for 54 holes. This is Fowler’s first time back at this event since 2014. He is in good form to start the season after getting married (and overachieving) last October with a tie for 5th place two weeks ago in Maui at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He certainly has the skill set to put up a big number as he ranked 14th on the tour for the 2018-19 season in Shots-Gained: Total last year. Fowler was 29th in Birdies or Better last season while also ranking 10th in Eagles. Fowler also ranked 13th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season. Fowler is paired in head-to-head betting with Francesco Molinari. Molinari risks being rusty with this being his first professional event since November 3rd where he was in Dubai for the WGC-HSBC Championship. I don’t think Molinari’s profile fits this course. He was just 82nd on the tour for 2018-19 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he was 169th in Greens in Regulation. Molinari was also 183rd in Eagles Percentage and 162nd in Birdies Average. Take Fowler (7113) in head-to-head propositions with Molinari (7114) for Day One. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The American Express takes place in the Coachella Valley in Palm Springs. This Pro-Am is formerly known as the Bob Hope Classic among a few past iterations. With 156 professionals entered in this event, the first three rounds take place on the La Quinta Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Stadium Course respectively with the cut occurring after those 54 holes. The final round then takes place on the Stadium Course. With good weather expected, low scores are expected. Adam Long won this event last year at -26 under par.

Our Top Overlay on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Sungjae Im who Bovada lists at 16-1 to win this event. The 2019 Tour Rookie of the Year continues to gain valuable experience — and it will be interesting to see how he performs in his second season as a professional when revisiting courses he played last year. The South Korean finished tied for 12th place at this tournament last year. He comes off a tie for 21st place last week at the PGA Sony Open. With that finish, the 21-year old has twenty-one Top-25 results in his forty-two career starts. Im’s profile fits this low-scoring course. He was 33rd on the PGA Tour last season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He was also 22nd in Eagles Percentage and 26th in the Birdies Average. Additionally, Im was 22nd in the Par-Breakers last season while also ranking 6th in Par-5 Scoring. Im is matched with Tony Finau in head-to-head betting for Day One. We may be catching Finau jet lagged for his opening round today after he flew back from the Hong Kong Open where he finished in 5th place last week. Finau has made three of his four cuts for the 2019-20 season but two of those events were non-cut events where he finished outside the Top-50 — so form is a concern for him right now. Finau was just 167th in Driving Accuracy for 2018-19 — and he was 125th in Putting last season as well. Finau does not profile as nicely for putting up big numbers this week either when compared to Im. He ranked 50th int he Eagles Percentage and he was 54th in Birdies Average. Take Im (7047) in head-to-head Day One propositions versus Finau (7048). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai’i. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 704 yards of play with bermuda greens. With gusty winds expected with the highs reaching 40 miles per hour, lower scores are expected this weekend with the winner likely to be in 10 under par range. We want to focus on excellent putters given those circumstances. We also want to focus on golfers who perform well with Shots-Gained: Approach. Five of the top ten finishers in last year’s event finished in the Top Ten in Shots-Gained: Approach. Furthermore, only two of the golfers who finished in the Top Ten in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee then finished in the Top Ten overall. With only two Par-5s on the Par 70 course, those golfers who thrive in Par-Four scoring.

Our Best Bet to win this event is Justin Thomas who is listed at 5-1 to win according to Bovada. Thomas won the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week in Kapalua in come-from-behind fashion in a playoff with Patrick Reed. Thomas is making a claim to being the number one golfer in the world right now with three victories in his last six starts. He is also the proverbial King of Hawai’i with three wins and a tie for third in the annual two tournaments to start the new calendar year in the fiftieth state of the union. Thomas has pulled off the back-to-back sweep already in his career back in 2017 when he followed up his Sentry Tournament of Champions win by shooting 59 on Thursday en route to winning the Sony Open. Seven of the last eight winners of the Sony Open played the previous week in Kapalua — so that is a good harbinger for Thomas. He leads the field in Shots-Gained: Total of the enter field here since 2015. Thomas’ skill set fits this course. He finished the 2018-2019 as the second ranked golfer on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also finished 3rd on the tour last year in Par-Four scoring and 16th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance. Thomas is paired with Matt Kuchar in head-to-head Round One betting for Thursday. Kuchar is the defending champion of this event but has not played a tour event since the Hero World Challenge back on the first weekend in December where he finished in 14th place. Kuchar has been in inconsistent form for the second half of 2019. While he finished the 2018-2019 year 17th best in Shots-Gained: Approach, he falls to 86th place in that metric when looking at the 2019-20 PGA Tour events starting in November. Kuchar was also just 128th in 2018-2019 in Par-Four scoring. And Kuchar did not play last week in Hawai’i which puts him in that historical disadvantage angle versus Thomas who shot 59 on Day One her after winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions in 2017.  Take Thomas (7111) in head-to-head betting matchups for Day One on Thursday over Kuchar (7112). Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai’i. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 704 yards of play with bermuda greens. With gusty winds expected with the highs reaching 40 miles per hour, lower scores are expected this weekend with the winner likely to be in 10 under par range. We want to focus on excellent putters given those circumstances. We also want to focus on golfers who perform well with Shots-Gained: Approach. Five of the top ten finishers in last year’s event finished in the Top Ten in Shots-Gained: Approach. Furthermore, only two of the golfers who finished in the Top Ten in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee then finished in the Top Ten overall. With only two Par-5s on the Par 70 course, those golfers who thrive in Par-Four scoring.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best value relative to their odds is on Webb Simpson who Bovada lists at 12-1 odds to win this event. Simpson has made all nine cuts when playing here with five straight Top-10 finishes. Simpson thrives on old school Par 70s with bermuda greens — and he is on the record that he loves this course. He is 3rd best on the tour over his last three starts in Shots-Gained: Total. Simpson is one of the best ball strikers on the tour who is a veteran in a great position to manage the gusty winds. He ranks 2nd on the tour for the 2019-20 season in Shots-Gained: Approach while also ranking 2nd in Bogey Avoidance. And Simpson has been red hot with his putter as he ranks 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting over his last three events with that number rushing to 8th best when putting on bermuda grass. Overall for ’19-20, Simpson is 11th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Simpson is also in great form with four second place finishes on the tour over his last ten events while starting the new season with a tie for 7th place and then a 2nd place result at the RSM Classic. Simpson is matched with Hideki Matsuyama in head-to-head betting options for Day One on Thursday. Matsuyama has struggled on this course with three missed cuts in six starts while never finishing better than tied for 27th place. This is Matsuyama’s first start since the President’s Cup. He is so far just 92nd on the tour for ’19-20 in Shots-Gained: Approach and his putting puts him at just 159th on the new seasons in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Simpson (7118) in head-to-head betting against Matsuyama (7117) in Day One betting. Best of luck for us -- Frank.

The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai’i. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 704 yards of play with bermuda greens. With gusty winds expected with the highs reaching 40 miles per hour, lower scores are expected this weekend with the winner likely to be in 10 under par range. We want to focus on excellent putters given those circumstances. We also want to focus on golfers who perform well with Shots-Gained: Approach. Five of the top ten finishers in last year’s event finished in the Top Ten in Shots-Gained: Approach. Furthermore, only two of the golfers who finished in the Top Ten in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee then finished in the Top Ten overall. With only two Par-5s on the Par 70 course, those golfers who thrive in Par-Four scoring.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites (according to Bovada) to win this event is on Brandt Snedeker who Bovada lists to win at 50-1 odds. The veteran is also good in tough conditions given his strong short game and his reliable putting. Snedeker is a scrambler who is 5th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green so far this season after finishing 3rd in that metric last season. Snedeker also finished 12th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has made all three of his cuts for the new ’19-20 season. He also has had success on this course with a tie for 16th place last year along with a heartbreaking loss in a playoff back in 2016. Snedeker is matched with Alex Noren in head-to-head betting options for Day One on Thursday. Noren earned a Top-Ten exemption to qualify for this event after finishing just 129th in the FedEx standings last year. Noren was just 164th in Shots-Gained: Approach last season while ranking only 156th in Par-Four scoring and 153rd in Shots-Gained: Putting. This is Noren’s first event since the RSM Classic back in late November. Take Snedeker (7010) in Day One head-to-head betting over Noren (7019). Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Tour Championship concludes at the East Lake Golf Course in East Atlanta this weekend. This is a Par-70 course consisting of 7346 yards. This is bomber’s course who can use their wedge to reach the greens in two shots if they can stay accurate off the tee. Soft conditions could lead to some big scores. The pros have hit the fairways in 54% of their shots off the tee here for the Tour Championship — but the golfers who miss the fairway then only get to the Green in Regulation just 49% of the time. With this event concluding the FedEx playoffs, this will be the first year of a new format where the golfer who hoists the trophy on Sunday to win this tournament will also win the playoff. Justin Thomas begins the week in first place in the FedEx standings which rewards him with a starting score of -10. Patrick Cantlay is in second place in the standings so he will be awarded a -8 score — and the remaining twenty-eight players in the field will assign cascading scores with the bottom five golfers being given a score of Par which places them 10 strokes behind Thomas to start on Thursday. First place has seen a score of -8 to -13 under par over the last eleven years. I think the winner of this event will need to have a score of at least -15. With his two-stroke lead entering Day One, Thomas is the betting favorite to win this week — Bovada lists him as a 2.4-1 favorite to lift the trophy. At those odds, Thomas is an underlay bet — even with initial lead. In the last fifteen PGA Tour events that have not had a cut over the last two years, three golfers successfully overcame a deficit of at least ten strokes to win the event. Furthermore, eleven of the fifteen champions of those tournaments found themselves trailing by at least five strokes at one point in the event. I still consider this event wide open for the first twenty or so golfers in this field. Thomas is just one double-bogey on Thursday away from feeling completely differently about his initial lead. Will he suffer a hangover from last week’s victory at the BMW Championship? We are in an unventured territory with this new format — and the Day One installed leader may feel unique pressure. Pressure is not a good ingredient to add to the mix of a golfer like Thomas who ranks just 133rd in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Thomas also ranks 133rd on the tour with a Driving Accuracy of just 60.25%. At his short odds, I am fading Thomas.

Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Brooks Koepka who Bovada lists as a 4.5-1 favorite to win this event. I don’t love the value of those odds — but I do really like the situation Koepka walks in to assigned at -7 under par. I expect the reigning US Open and PGA Championship title holder to have a chip on his shoulder with this initial disadvantage given the new scoring format. His three wins on the tour this season overwhelm the other four golfers in the top-five here who have only won once apiece this year. Koepka finished a disappointing tied for 24th place last week at the BMW Championship — but this being his third straight week of competition makes him very dangerous this week. Koepka has four major championships under his belt — and he has admitted that he only practices before major championships while being content with winging it at other tournaments. Koepka has received plenty of “practice time” over the last two weeks after playing the first two legs of these playoffs. Koepka demonstrated his dominance over his peers on that final round Sunday by easily overcoming a one-shot deficit to Rory McIlroy to win that event by three strokes. Koepka dominated McIlroy on that Sunday by outshooting him by six strokes. With victories at the US Open and PGA Championship this year, Koepka looks primed to fully invest himself to winning his first Tour Championship. He had a disappointing performance at East Lake last year by finishing just 4 under par — but he did finish tied for 6th place here two years ago. In theory, Koepka’s big driver should put him in position to then get out his trusty 8-iron or a wedge for his second shot — and he has significantly improved this part of his game this year after losing strokes in nine of his last twelve rounds played at East Lake. I think winning the FedEx championship has been one of the big goals for Koepka all season — and I am not getting off the bandwagon of the golfer I consider the best in the world right now. Koepka is paired with Patrick Reed for head-to-head Round One betting for Thursday. Reed is in fourth place in the FedEx standings which has him at -6 under par to start this tournament. Reed took a step back last week after winning the first leg of the playoffs at the PGA Northern Trust. Reed was just tied for 19th place last week. Now he travels to Atlanta where he has never finished in the Top-Ten in his previous five Tour Championships. Furthermore, Reed has lost strokes to the field in fourteen of his twenty rounds played here with ten of those rounds seeing him lose at least strokes to the field. With Reed ranking 36th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and a Driving Accuracy of just 60.75% which is 122nd on the tour, the analytics for the skills needed to score well on this course are not encouraging. Take Koepka in head-to-head betting propositions versus Reed for Round One on Thursday. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Tour Championship concludes at the East Lake Golf Course in East Atlanta this weekend. This is a Par-70 course consisting of 7346 yards. This is bomber’s course who can use their wedge to reach the greens in two shots if they can stay accurate off the tee. Soft conditions could lead to some big scores. The pros have hit the fairways in 54% of their shots off the tee here for the Tour Championship — but the golfers who miss the fairway then only get to the Green in Regulation just 49% of the time. With this event concluding the FedEx playoffs, this will be the first year of a new format where the golfer who hoists the trophy on Sunday to win this tournament will also win the playoff. Justin Thomas begins the week in first place in the FedEx standings which rewards him with a starting score of -10. Patrick Cantlay is in second place in the standings so he will be awarded a -8 score — and the remaining twenty-eight players in the field will assign cascading scores with the bottom five golfers being given a score of Par which places them 10 strokes behind Thomas to start on Thursday. First place has seen a score of -8 to -13 under par over the last eleven years. I think the winner of this event will need to have a score of at least -15. With his two-stroke lead entering Day One, Thomas is the betting favorite to win this week — Bovada lists him as a 2.4-1 favorite to lift the trophy. At those odds, Thomas is an underlay bet — even with initial lead. In the last fifteen PGA Tour events that have not had a cut over the last two years, three golfers successfully overcame a deficit of at least ten strokes to win the event. Furthermore, eleven of the fifteen champions of those tournaments found themselves trailing by at least five strokes at one point in the event. I still consider this event wide open for the first twenty or so golfers in this field. Thomas is just one double-bogey on Thursday away from feeling completely differently about his initial lead. Will he suffer a hangover from last week’s victory at the BMW Championship? We are in an unventured territory with this new format — and the Day One installed leader may feel unique pressure. Pressure is not a good ingredient to add to the mix of a golfer like Thomas who ranks just 133rd in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Thomas also ranks 133rd on the tour with a Driving Accuracy of just 60.25%. At his short odds, I am fading Thomas.

Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Jon Rahm who Bovada lists at 14-1 odds to win this tournament. Rahm is tied for sixth place in the FedEx standings which places him at -4 under par to start on Thursday. Rahm finished tied for 5th place last week at the BMW Championship after finishing a solo 3rd place in the first leg of the FedEx playoffs at the PGA Northern Trust. Rahm may be playing the most consistent golf of all the top-level players this summer as he has enjoyed Top-11 over better finishes in seven straight events worldwide. Rahm has also generated five Top-5 finishes in his nine FedEx playoff events in his career. He is second best out of this field for Greens-in-Regulation in these playoffs. Additionally, Rahm is 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while also ranking 17th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance. Perhaps more importantly for this course that rewards big hitters, Rahm is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Rahm is paired with Patrick Cantlay for Round One head-to-head wagering on Thursday. Cantlay is in second place in the FedEx standings after finishing tied for 2nd place last week. But Cantlay has not played very well in his previous two trips to East Lake has he finished tied for 20th and 21st place in his previous two appearances here. Cantlay has been riding a hot putter this summer with five of his top nine putting efforts in his career taking place over the last four months. But putting can be vulnerable to the ole Regression Gods — and Cantlay has lost about 7.5 strokes against the field with his putter the last two years at this event. Cantlay is just 154th on the tour in Driving Accuracy while ranking a mere 64th in Greens-in-Regulation — so that might explain why he has struggled here. Take Rahm in Round One head-to-head proposition wagers against Cantlay for Thursday. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The Tour Championship concludes at the East Lake Golf Course in East Atlanta this weekend. This is a Par-70 course consisting of 7346 yards. This is bomber’s course who can use their wedge to reach the greens in two shots if they can stay accurate off the tee. Soft conditions could lead to some big scores. The pros have hit the fairways in 54% of their shots off the tee here for the Tour Championship — but the golfers who miss the fairway then only get to the Green in Regulation just 49% of the time. With this event concluding the FedEx playoffs, this will be the first year of a new format where the golfer who hoists the trophy on Sunday to win this tournament will also win the playoff. Justin Thomas begins the week in first place in the FedEx standings which rewards him with a starting score of -10. Patrick Cantlay is in second place in the standings so he will be awarded a -8 score — and the remaining twenty-eight players in the field will assign cascading scores with the bottom five golfers being given a score of Par which places them 10 strokes behind Thomas to start on Thursday. First place has seen a score of -8 to -13 under par over the last eleven years. I think the winner of this event will need to have a score of at least -15. With his two-stroke lead entering Day One, Thomas is the betting favorite to win this week — Bovada lists him as a 2.4-1 favorite to lift the trophy. At those odds, Thomas is an underlay bet — even with initial lead. In the last fifteen PGA Tour events that have not had a cut over the last two years, three golfers successfully overcame a deficit of at least ten strokes to win the event. Furthermore, eleven of the fifteen champions of those tournaments found themselves trailing by at least five strokes at one point in the event. I still consider this event wide open for the first twenty or so golfers in this field. Thomas is just one double-bogey on Thursday away from feeling completely differently about his initial lead. Will he suffer a hangover from last week’s victory at the BMW Championship? We are in an unventured territory with this new format — and the Day One installed leader may feel unique pressure. Pressure is not a good ingredient to add to the mix of a golfer like Thomas who ranks just 133rd in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Thomas also ranks 133rd on the tour with a Driving Accuracy of just 60.25%. At his short odds, I am fading Thomas.

Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Paul Casey who is listed at 100-1 odds by Bovada to win this event. Casey begins Thursday at -2 under par placing him eight strokes behind Thomas — but a fast start can change this dynamic quickly. Casey has plenty of opening round success at the Tour Championship at East Lake. In 2010, Casey shot an opening-round 66 which put him in a tie for 1st place. In 2012, Casey shot an opening-round 66 and he also shot that score in 2017 which saw him begin Day Two tied for 2nd place. Five of the sixteen rounds he has played at East Lake have seen a 65 or better score — and a similar number on Thursday would help his cause tremendously. Casey simply loves playing at this course where he has finished in 4th place in 2010 and 2016 while finishing in 5th place in 2015 and 2017. In his career playing at East Lake, he ranks 11th in Driving Accuracy, 12th in Greens-in-Regulation, and 12th in All-Around Scoring. Overall this season, Casey is 2nd on the tour in Ball Striking and 7th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Casey also might have a small advantage versus the field in terms of stamina as he was the only one of these thirty golfers to skip the PGA Northern Trust two weeks ago. Casey is linked with Abraham Ancer for Round One head-to-head wagering options. Ancer has been placed at -4 under par to begin this final leg of the FedEx playoffs after finishing tied for 2nd place two weeks ago at the PGA Northern Trust before falling back for a tie for 28th place last week at the BMW Championship. This is Ancer’s first time playing at East Lake for this event — and his game does not fit the challenges he will face. While Ancer ranks 9th on the tour in Driving Accuracy, he is just 107th on the tour in Driving Distance — so he will likely still be using his irons for the second shot. Anger ranks just 42nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks outside the Top-100 in Shots Gained: Approach, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Casey in head-to-head wagering options versus Ancer for Round One on Thursday. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The second leg of the FedEx Championship playoffs takes place this week with the BMW Championship taking place at the Medinah Country Club on their Course Three just west of Chicago. 69 golfers will be competing with the top thirty advancing to the third and final leg next week for the Tour Championship at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta. This is a 7163-yard course with par set at 72. While the course plays a bit shorter than that yardage suggests, successful golfers will be using their mid-irons to reach the green (rather than a wedge that has been standard on many of the courses on the tour). Given all the doglegs on this course, the pros will likely put away their driver off the tee for three-woods or even two-irons. This was the home of the 1996 and 2006 PGA Championships (each won by Tiger Woods) as well as the 2002 Ryder Cup.

Our Top Overlay on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Justin Rose who Bovada lists at 16-1 odds to win this tournament. Rose finished tied for 10th place last week at the Northern Trust after a sparkling score of 65 last Thursday. Rose has four Top-15 finishes and a Top-20 result over his last five events. Rose is 6th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total on the strength of his outstanding putter: he ranks 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this year. Rose is the reigning Tour Champion after winning the playoffs last year — and this course will bring back warm memories of when he played a key role in Europe’s miraculous comeback victory in that 2012 Ryder’s Cup. Rose is linked with Dustin Johnson in head-to-head matchup wagers for Day One on Thursday. Johnson may have four victories in FedEx Playoff events but he continues to disappoint on the tour this season. Johnson led the Northern Trust after two rounds last week before shooting a 74 on Saturday with that +3 round pushing him out of contention — he finished tied for 24th place. That result came off his previous event three weeks ago at the World Golf Championship-FedEx St. Jude invitational where he finished tied for 20th place. Johnson has two tied for 20th place finishes in his last six tournaments which, unfortunately for him, are his best results over that span of play. Johnson tends to perform best when he can get the benefits from his driver: he ranks 6th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But the weakest part of Johnson’s game is when he gets in trouble off the tee. He ranks 31st in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Johnson’s poor final two rounds last week is not the ideal way to transition into this tournament. Take Rose (7158) in head-to-head betting propositions against Johnson (7117) for Day One on Thursday. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The second leg of the FedEx Championship playoffs takes place this week with the BMW Championship taking place at the Medinah Country Club on their Course Three just west of Chicago. 69 golfers will be competing with the top thirty advancing to the third and final leg next week for the Tour Championship at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta. This is a 7163-yard course with par set at 72. While the course plays a bit shorter than that yardage suggests, successful golfers will be using their mid-irons to reach the green (rather than a wedge that has been standard on many of the courses on the tour). Given all the doglegs on this course, the pros will likely put away their driver off the tee for three-woods or even two-irons. This was the home of the 1996 and 2006 PGA Championships (each won by Tiger Woods) as well as the 2002 Ryder Cup.

Our Long Shot on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites to win this event is on Louis Oosthuizen who Bovada lists at 33-1 odds to win this tournament. Oosthuizen is in good form after finishing tied for 6th place last week at the Northern Trust. That was his 5th Top-Ten finish this year and came off the heels of two straight Top-20 results. The South African finished tied for 3rd place last week in Greens-in-Regulation — and he is 4th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. The veteran is dangerous when he is shooting well. He is paired with Andrew Putnam in head-to-head betting for Day One on Thursday. Putnam comes off a nice tie for 12th place at the Northern Trust last week. But let's fade the 30-year old Pepperdine alum this week with that finish being his best result on the PGA Tour since his solo second-place way back in mid-January. Putnam thrives with his putter as he ranks 6th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. But Putnam ranks a low 131st on the tour in the critical Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green metric. He also ranks just 191st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 82nd in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. With this being just his second FedEx playoff qualification this season, the veteran Oosthuizen should have the edge today. Take Oosthuizen (7103) versus Putnam (7104) in head-to-head wagering for the 1st Round on Thursday. Best of luck for us — Frank.

The second leg of the FedEx Championship playoffs takes place this week with the BMW Championship taking place at the Medinah Country Club on their Course Three just west of Chicago. 69 golfers will be competing with the top thirty advancing to the third and final leg next week for the Tour Championship at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta. This is a 7163-yard course with par set at 72. While the course plays a bit shorter than that yardage suggests, successful golfers will be using their mid-irons to reach the green (rather than a wedge that has been standard on many of the courses on the tour). Given all the doglegs on this course, the pros will likely put away their driver off the tee for three-woods or even two-irons. This was the home of the 1996 and 2006 PGA Championships (each won by Tiger Woods) as well as the 2002 Ryder Cup.

Our Best Bet to win this event is on Brooks Koepka who is listed as a co-favorite at 8-1 odds according to Bovada. Koepka finished just tied for 30th place last week at the PGA Northern Trust. The rap on Koepka is that the reason why he performs so well at major tournaments where he has finished in first or second place in five of his last seven starts is that he commits to practicing the week before those events in preparation. For most other events on the tour, Koepka comes into the tournament without practicing. Interestingly, his win at the World Golf Championship-FedEx St. Jude Invitational three weeks ago came the week after the British Open. With last week serving as Koepka’s “practice round”, he could be tough to beat. Koepka demonstrated his dominance over his peers on that final round Sunday by easily overcoming a one-shot deficit to Rory McIlroy to win that event by three strokes. Koepka dominated McIlroy on that Sunday by outshooting him by six strokes. With victories at the US Open and PGA Championship this year, Koepka looks primed to fully invest himself to winning his first Tour Championship. Winning this week not only maintains his hold on first place in the FedEx standings but also gives him the automatic two-shot lead at -10 under par to start at next week’s Tour Championship in their new scoring format. Koepka ranks 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 13th in Shots-Gained: Approach despite using most of the non-majors on the tour as his de-facto practice rounds. Koepka is linked with Jon Rahm in head-to-head wagering matchups for Day One on Thursday. Rahm is tied with Koepka in the Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green but he falls to 40th place in the Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green metric. Rahm tends to thrive on longer courses where he can use his driver — he ranks 18th on the tour in Driving Distance and 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But Rahm may be too tempted to play aggressively with his driver and shoot over the trees rather than play conservatively with the dog legs as Tiger Woods did in winning his two PGA Championships on this course. Take Koepka (7033) in head-to-head betting matchups for Day One on Thursday over Rahm (7034). Best of luck for us — Frank.