04-06-23 |
Joaquin Niemann v. Justin Rose -130 |
|
71-69 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 52 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Justin Rose who is listed at +5000 odds at DraftKings. Rose last played three weeks ago when he settled for a tie for 36th place at the PGA Valspar Championship — but he remains in good form. He finished in a tie for 6th place at the PLAYERS Championship — and he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Invitational in January. The Englishman is well-versed in handily windy and rainy conditions that might be on the way this weekend — and he will probably avoid any afternoon rain on Friday with his early tee time after going off late on Thursday. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks 22nd in Shots-Gained: Total. He has gained strokes versus the field in Approach-the-Green in six straight tournaments. He is in a better position to handle the narrow fairways this week as well. He ranks 17th on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy. Furthermore, he is one of the best putters on the tour — and he ranks second in the field for his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bentgrass greens. The 42-year-old knows Augusta National as well as any of his peers this week with this being his 18th trip to play in the Masters. He has six top-ten finishes with two second-place results. He did miss the cut last year — but he finished in seventh place in 2021 and has 11 top-25 finishes in his last 13 Masters. Rose has also finished as the Day One leader four times in his career at this tournament. Rose is linked with Joaquin Niemann in Round One head-to-head props. Niemann is one of the 18 professionals from the LIV Tour playing in this event. He does not appear to be in great form. After an 11th-place finish on the LIV Tour, he has settled for 36th and then 31st places in his last two events — even with the talent pool dropping off when compared to the PGA Tour. I am skeptical about how the LIV players will do this week in the first Masters since the schism took place. The LIV Tour is only 54 holes but without cuts — so the dynamic and endurance required are different. This intangible is mitigated a bit in a Round One prop — but there is still less urgency for all the LIV golfers on Day One since they are guaranteed to play all 54 holes. Second, the LIV Tour is a team event with aggregate scores measured — so it is not individual stroke play. Third, I am not sure how all these LIV golfers will react to being seen as outsiders crashing the gate. Niemann is on record saying that “they hate us” when talking about how the PGA Tour pros feel about those who left for the LIV Tour. Maybe the Patrick Reeds of the world revel in being hated, but guys like Niemann may feel uncomfortable. Lastly, the appeal of the LIV Tour is the guaranteed money they receive — and has that changed the motivational angles for these pros? The top pros on the LIV Tour have not exactly torn things up on that circuit. Cam Smith only left for the LIV Tour after winning the British Open. Like Deshaun Watson underwhelming for the Cleveland Browns after signing a fully-guaranteed free agent deal and even Russell Wilson inking his deal with Denver with our $180 million guaranteed, has the security of all that money simply taken the edge off the LIV pros? Regarding Niemann, the 24-year-old Chilean has not had great success at Augusta National. His best finish was last year when he settled for 35th place. He finished in 40th place in 2021 after missing the cut in his 2018 debut. Take Rose (7148) versus Niemann (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
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04-06-23 |
Rory McIlroy v. Jon Rahm +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 56 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.
Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this event is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +850 at DraftKings. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Rahm are the definitive top-three favorites before Jordan Spieth comes in at +1800. I have a few reasons why I am fading Scheffler — mostly because his +650 price is simply too low and clear underlay territory for me. There has not been a repeat champion since Tiger Woods in 2002 — so there appears to be an added disadvantage of dealing with defending champion responsibilities that add to the burden of winning this event. Frankly, I think Rahm is the best golfer in the world — and he will be very motivated to win his first green jacket. It was only a month ago when Rahm was generally considered the best player in the world after winning five tournaments in a nine-event stretch. He has three victories on the PGA Tour in 2023 — the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express, and then the Genesis Invitational — with two of those tournaments now elevated events with a higher purse for the winner (the PGA Tour’s response to the pressure put on them by the competing LIV Tour). Some bettors were spooked by Rahm shooting a pair of 76s over the weekend at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. I still took Rahm for The PLAYERS Championship — but, unfortunately, he had to withdraw due to a stomach bug. It happens. Rahm then did not advance out of the group stage play in the World Golf Championships Match Play event two weeks ago — but I am simply not going to read much into Match Play results. This is, by far, the biggest tournament of the year so far for 2023. Rahm enters this event leading the field in Adjusting Scoring, Par-Breakers, and Par-3 Scoring. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, fourth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 17th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, and 12th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is second in the field in Shots-Gained at Augusta National in his last 24 rounds. He has accrued at least +2.0 shots-gained versus the field in 10 of his last 20 rounds at Augusta National. Rahm has never finished worse than 27th place in his six previous trips to the Masters. He has registered four top-tens. Finally, since 2016 amongst the 30 pros to play at least 20 rounds, he is only one of two professionals (Hideki Matsuyama) to have gained strokes versus the field in each of his rounds. Rahm is linked with McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. With four victories in the last ten months, McIlroy remains a very popular choice. But everybody’s favorite has not won a major championship since 2014. So while Barack Obama began dealing with the ramifications of the final midterm elections in his second Presidential term to four years of Donald Trump to more than two years of Joe Biden, while others have been whiffing on McIlroy at a major championship, we have (mostly) looked elsewhere. I will probably continue this approach until if and when McIlroy proves me wrong at a major. His second-place finish at the Masters last year impressed many observers — but his great Sunday came after he was already out of the tournament so the pressure was off. If he is in contention, I have faith that he will find a way to blow it at a major championship … again. McIlroy has recently changed his driver and his putter — and the results at the World Golf Championships Match Play event two weeks ago were very encouraging. But see my earlier remarks about match-play tournaments. And I just don’t love any pro making significant equipment changes before a major. McIlroy’s putter is letting him down this season — he ranks 175th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. McIlroy also ranks only 140th in Greens In Regulation for ’22-23 — and seven of the last eight winners at the Masters finished in the top seven that week in Greens In Regulation. Take Rahm (7004) versus McIlroy (7003) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Rahm at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
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04-06-23 |
Cameron Young v. Sungjae Im +1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 8 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Augusta National Golf Course for the first major championship of the year with The Masters. This a Par 72 event consisting of 7545 yards. The average round last year at this tournament was 73.951. Despite the length of Augusta National which plays even longer given the elevated greens on many of the holes, this remains a second-shot course where shot-shaping and placement remain a priority. The Bentgrass greens average 6500 square feet and play ultra-fast measuring up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The tournament features 88 professionals including 18 players from the LIV Tour. The top 50 players will make the weekend cut. Rain is expected on the weekend which will amp up the winds while the temperatures are expected to drop into the mid-50s.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings. Im has the ball-striking and short-game skills to put on a green jacket. It was these attributes that helped him finish tied for second place in his debut at Augusta National in the November 2020 event (pushed back from April because of COVID). Im missed the cut then in April of 2021 but he bounced back with a tie for eighth place last year. Now in his fourth trip to Augusta, Im can start building on his past experiences here with the Masters being perhaps the tournament where course history gives a player the biggest edge (everything else being equal, which it never is). Im is in good form with a 21st place or better in six of his last eight events. He followed up an impressive sixth-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship with a tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championship Match Play event. This course rewards golfers who thrive with their second shot — and Im has gained strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in seven straight stroke play events. And if IM misses the green, he ranks fourth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Im is one of the most well-rounded golfers on the tour. He ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 13th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Im is linked with Cameron Young in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Young comes off a second place at the WGC Match Play event two weeks ago which was his best finish this season. His only top-ten at a strokes play event in 2023 was his tenth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He finished in a tie for 51st place at the PLAYERS Championship last month. I like Young and have invested in him several times in the last year — but he is not a good fit for Augusta National in similar ways Bryson DeChambeau has struggled at this event with no top-20 finishes. Young is also a big hitter who ranks third on the tour this season in Driving Distance — and that helps him rank 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But when Tiger Woods was having success at Augusta National early in his career, he was hitting fairways. Young ranks 141st in Driving Accuracy this season. While missing the fairway does not result in a disadvantage when it comes to the rough, the challenge to hit the green remains. The name of the game this week is finding the strategic angles to set up those second shots — and that is not Young’s game (as opposed to Im). If Young misses his second shot, he will be in trouble. He ranks 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 155th in Scrambling. He then ranks 86th in Shots-Gained: Putting. This is Young’s only second trip to Augusta National so he lacks significant experience. He missed the cut at the Masters last year. Take Im (7028) versus Young (7027) in Tournament Matchup head-to-hear props (and grab Im at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
|
03-30-23 |
Tyrrell Hatton v. Corey Conners +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Corey Connors who is listed at +2500 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Connors earned his 8th top-25 finish for the 2022-23 season last week with his tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play event. But without a top-ten this season, Connors could use a good week and the payday. He has qualified for the Masters next week so he can focus his energies on winning this event again after using his 2019 victory here at TPC San Antonio to qualify for the Masters that next week. In all, Connors has made all four cuts when competing at this event with an average score of 69.81. Commented Connors about his affinity for this tournament: “My natural shot seems to fit really well on a lot of these holes, which I like. That's why I like the golf course so much." Connors is one of the best ball-strikers in the field this week. He ranks second in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in his last 24 rounds — and he ranks fourth in the field this week in Ball-Striking in his last 24 rounds. Connors is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hatton is one of my favorites on the tour — but this is not a good week to back him even if he has the shortest odds to win. Hatton injured his hand last week at the Match Play event where he lost all three of his matchups. I would not be surprised if he withdrew from the event before it concludes. Hatton’s eyes are set on Augusta National next week — so even if he plays all four rounds, he is not likely to push it. And this is his first time here at TPC San Antonio so he lacks course familiarity relative to his peers. Take Connors (7002) versus Hatton (7001) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Connors at +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-30-23 |
Si Woo Kim -112 v. Rickie Fowler |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
Our Best Bet on the golfer with the best chance to win this tournament is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Kim won the PGA Sony Open in January — and he has registered seven top-40 finishes in his last eight events after a tie for 17th place at the World Golf Championships Match Play tournament last week. Kim is a good ball-striker who deserves his short odds this week given the depleted field the week before the Masters. Kim ranks third in the field this week in Opportunities Gained in his last 24 rounds. He is 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 22nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — so his length and his ball-striking should put him in position for birdies. And while this tournament has ranked in the top-13 for most difficult in reaching Greens-In-Regulation, Kim ranks 24th on the tour in Scrambling. Kim ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total this season. After missing the cut in his first trip here in 2016, Kim has made all five cuts since with four top-25 finishes including a tie for 4th place in 2019. And I like that Kim has already qualified for the Masters next week which will not put added pressure on him to compete this week. That is not the case for Rickie Fowler who must hoist the first-place trophy to earn his right to go back to Augusta National to compete. Fowler is playing better golf lately with nine straight cuts made with six top-20s. But this guy remains perpetually overrated after many near misses at major tournaments over the last decade. But Fowler has not actually won a PGA tournament since the WM Phoenix Open in 2019. He ranks 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he is 70th in Scrambling. He has two 17th-place finishes at this event — but I don’t think the extra pressure this week does him any favors. Take Kim (7003) versus Fowler (7004) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-30-23 |
Alexander Noren v. Cameron Davis +0.5 |
|
70-80 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open this week. The Oaks Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7438 yards. Three of the four Par 5s are at least 590 yards in length. The professionals will once again have to contend with gusty winds that are not uncommon for this event. Last year, only 56% of their drives off the tee landed in the fairway, a drop from the 62% PGA Tour average. The average score was 71.763 per round last year. The Bermuda greens are overseeded with Poa trivilias grass that will register up to 11 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The winner of this event earns automatic qualification to the Masters at Augusta National next week.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Cam Davis who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Cam Davis had made the cut in 13 of 14 PGA Tour events after a tie for 32nd place at the PGA Sony Open in January. But Davis then missed five straight cuts this season. He later confessed during the PLAYERS Championship that he had been battling an illness during that stretch that impacted his game. I think Davis deserves the benefit of the doubt after finishing tied for 6th place at TPC Sawgrass with the PLAYERS considered the unofficial “fifth” major for the competitors on the PGA Tour. He was then in fine form last week at the WGC Match Play Invitational where he finished 2-1-0 in his three matches. He registered 11 birdies in his final two matches against Tom Hoge and Aaron Wise. Davis leads the field this week in Par 5 Scoring in his last 24 rounds — and that will be critical for success this week. Five of the last six winners of this tournament finished in the top ten in Par 5 Scoring with the lone exception being last year when JJ Spaun finished 12th in Par 5 Scoring. Distance matters this week given the length of the course — and going long offers an advantage if the wind is going to keep many of the pros off the fairway. Davis ranks 16th on the tour this season with a Driving Distance average of 310.1 yards. Davis ranks 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — even with his earlier struggles with illness. This is his third trip here after making the cut for the first time three years ago. Davis is linked with Alex Noren in Round One head-to-head props. Noren makes his debut at TPC San Antonio which puts him at a competitive disadvantage with Davis. His game does not match up well with the challenges the course will offer. Noren is just 79th in Driving Distance for 2022-23 — and that drags down his Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee ranking to 176th on the tour. Noren’s ball-striking has been questionable this season as well. He ranks 100th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 89th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, he ranks only 144th in Par 5 Scoring. Noren’s form has not been great as well. After missing the cut at the PLAYERS Championship earlier this month, he finished tied for 52nd place at WGC Match Play Invitational last week. Take Davis (7140) versus Noren (7139) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab Davis at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-23 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick v. Justin Rose +0.5 |
|
74-71 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough is as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Best Bet on the golfer with the best chance to win the tournament is on Justin Rose who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Rose is intriguing because he tees off late on Thursday and then early on Friday — helping him avoid perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. Rose is in very good form right now coming off a tie for 6th place at the PLAYERS Championship last week. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Invitational last month. The Englishman is well-versed in handily windy conditions. For the 2022-23 season, he ranks 18th in Shots-Gained: Total. He is in a better position to handle the narrow fairways this week as well. He ranks 16th on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy. Furthermore, he ranks 5th in the field this week in Good Drives Gained in his last 24 rounds. He has made the cut at this tournament in seven of his 11 appearances with five top-15s. Rose is linked with Matt Fitzpatrick in Round One head-to-head props. Fitzpatrick missed the cut at The PLAYERS Championship last week which was the third time in his last five events that he failed to qualify for the weekend. Fitzpatrick’s iron play is letting him down — he ranks 168th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season. This is the wrong course to enter struggling with one’s second shot. Take Rose (7138) versus Fitzpatrick (7137) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-16-23 |
Tommy Fleetwood -120 v. Brian Harman |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Fleetwood is enticing because he tees off late on Thursday and then early on Friday — helping him avoid perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. Fleetwood was in 4th place going into Sunday of the PLAYERS Championship before a disappointing final round which led to him settling for 27th place. But there is still much for him to take from that effort after gaining his most strokes in the Approach on a PGA Tour event since the 2018 Honda Classic. He gained +5 strokes versus the field in Approach last week. Fleetwood has had several near-misses at major championships — but he has yet to win a PGA Tour event. The Englishman is well-versed in dealing with windy conditions. He ranks 22nd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 17th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. That bodes well for him this week since the last six winners of this tournament finished the week in the top six in that metric. Six of the last eight winners here finished the week in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He finished tied for 16th place in his debut at this tournament last year while gaining +3.9 strokes with his putter. Fleetwood is linked with Brian Harman in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Harman is simply not in good form right now. He has missed the cut in three of his last five events with his best showing since January 15th being last week when he finished tied for 44th place at The PLAYERS Championship. Harman’s ball striking is what is letting him down. He ranks 81st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and an even worse 138th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and this is the wrong course to be wild with one’s driver and irons, especially with the wind. Take Fleetwood (7015) versus Harman (7016) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-16-23 |
Nick Taylor -120 v. Tyler Duncan |
|
72-77 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour concludes its four-week run by moving to Northwest Tampa in Pearl Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of five Par 3s, four Par 5s, and just nine Par 4s. The course consists of 7340 yards with tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 22 yards. The rough can be as high as 3 3/4 inches. The TifEagle Bermuda greens average 5800 square feet and measure up to 12 1/2 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Nick Taylor who is listed at +6000 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Heavy winds that will gust up to 20 miles per hour are expected — with the worst of it beginning to come on Friday afternoon. Taylor tees off at 1 PM ET on Thursday which gets him an early tee time on Friday which will give him an edge by avoiding perhaps the worst of the weather in the first two days. He should be feisty this week after missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before missing the cut again at The PLAYERS Championship last week. Taylor did finish tied for 7th play at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i in January — and he finished in 2nd place at the WM Phoenix Open last month. Taylor is one of the better putters on the tour. He ranks a very solid 23rd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Total — helped by his ranking 23rd this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He is a two-time winner on the tour who could benefit from the lighter field this week after a string of highly competitive fields. Taylor plays lots of events — and he is very familiar with this course having played it seven times in his career. He has made the cut here four times with two top-24 finishes. Taylor is linked with Tyler Duncan in Round One head-to-head props. Duncan followed up a 3rd place at the Honda Classic with a 54th place last week at The PLAYERS Championship — but he has missed the cut in nine of his 14 events for the 2022-23 season. Ball striking is critical at this event with the narrow fairways — but this is not his strength. Duncan ranks 146th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season — and he is 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Duncan plays this event for the fifth time in his career with 25th place being his best result — but he has missed the cut twice. Take Taylor (7135) versus Duncan (7136) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-09-23 |
Viktor Hovland -147 v. Jordan Spieth |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the PLAYERS Championship at the TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. The so-called “fifth” major championship is a Par 72 event on a course consisting of 7275 yards. The average score last year was 72.619 per round. The challenges are numerous with 88 bunkers' water impacting all but one of the holes. This is a Pete Dye-designed course — and his tracks tend to twist and turn to privilege ball-shaping versus pure distance. The greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass oversewed with Poa trivialis. The smaller greens average 5500 square feet that can measure off to 13 inches on the stimpmeter.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Hovland has four top-20s in 2023 after coming off a good effort at the Arnold Palmer Invitational where he finished tied for 10th place. He gained +6.5 shots Off-the-Tee and then another +3.7 shots in his Approach versus the field last week. In his last three tournaments, he has gained +5.3, +6.0, and +10.0 strokes from his Ball-Striking respectively. Hovland is 7th on the PHA Tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he finished last season 15th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. When Hovland gets going, he is as good ball0-strike as there is on the tour as he demonstrated last summer when he finished 4th at the British Open. Last year at this tournament when he finished tied for 9th, Hovland led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Total Driving while finishing second in Fairways Hit and Green-In-Regulation. The weakness in his game is around the green if he does not reach the putting surface in regulation — he ranks 169th this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. But that is not as big an issue on this course. In last year’s event, only four of the top-21 finishers gained more than 0.5 shots versus the field in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Hovland is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Spieth finished 4th last week at TPC Sawgrass for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Did he pull that off despite a third-round score of 74 — or is there always something holding Spieth back at this point in his career? After being on Spieth for a spell of tournaments two years ago, he frustrated me by too often muffing key shots or putts when in contention. He finished tied for 62nd last week in Greens-In-Regulation despite his prowess with his irons. It’s just always something. Spieth ranks 77th on the tour this season in Shots Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 88th in Bogey Avoidance this season — and TPC Sawgrass is a course that punishes mistakes given all the water and bunkers. Spieth finished 4th at this event in his debut back in 2014 — but he has not cracked the top 40 since while missing the cut in four of his seven career appearances here. Take Hovland (7021) versus Spieth (7022) on Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-23 |
Max Homa v. Tyrrell Hatton +0.5 |
|
70-71 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 4 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it ranks in the top-five most difficult tournaments to hit Greens-In-Regulation over the last five years. The average score per round last year was 73.886. The rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The biggest challenge will be the winds that are expected to be 20 miles-per-hour on Friday — more on that below as those conditions did influence the golfers I am investing in this week.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3000 odds at DraftKings. Hatton opened the week at +3500 odds at DraftKings — but he now finds himself in a tie with three other golfers for the 10th-13th top favorite slots at those odds. They are my rules and guidelines — so I am not going to move off Hatton now just because he is in a four-way tie in being the 10th favorite here this week. Hatton has made the cut in 15 straight events worldwide coming into the week. The Englishmen jumped back on the PGA Tour last month for the PGA WM Phoenix Open where he finished in a tie for 6th place before settling for a tie for 40th place the next week at the PGA The Genesis Invitational. He did gain +2.4 strokes versus the field on the Sunday of the Genesis Invitational — so he has some momentum coming into this event. Hatton is an elite putter — he ranks 6th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda and lightning-fast greens. He also ranks 8th in the field this week over the last two years in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bermuda greens — and he ranks 10th in Overperformance relative to his baseline numbers in the last two years on courses with Bermuda greens. Hatton loves this course — he ranks 5th in the field this week in Shots-Gained at Bay Hill in the last five years. He is in a better position to handle the wind having won this tournament in 2020 while facing similar conditions. His 12:50 PM ET tee-time tomorrow has his teeing off early on Friday and avoiding the worst of the 40 mile-per-hour wind gusts that afternoon. Hatton has made the cut in all six of his appearances at this tournament with three top-five finishes. He finished in 2nd place last year — and six of the last eight winners at this tournament finished in the top-five in their previous visit to this event. Hatton is linked with Max Homa for Round One head-to-head matchups. Homa dominated the west coast swing of the PGA Tour — he comes off a 2nd place at The Genesis Invitational after winning the Farmers Insurance Open (as our Top Overlay Bet that week). At the time, I noted how comfortable and effective the Burbank native was putting on Poa Annua greens. That putting surface can be a struggle for those unfamiliar with that bumpier texture. Admittedly, good putters on Poa Annua usually do well on the smoother Bermuda greens. But it is fair to say that Homa’s net advantage over the field diminishes on courses with Bermuda greens. It is noteworthy that Homa has only registered two top-tens in his career when playing at a tournament in Florida. He finished tied for 6th place at the PGA Valspar Challenge — and he did finish in 10th place here at Bay Hill in 2020 albeit against a less-stacked field. The 11-year pro is playing the best golf of his career — but I don’t think he warrants being tied for the 5th top favorite in a field this loaded. He is a very good ball-striker who ranks 15th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He ranked 36th in that metric last year. Furthermore, Homa is not as long off the tee as he ranks 53rd in Driving Distance this season — and that drags down his Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee numbers as he ranks 83rd in that metric this season. This course plays long — and I identified earlier the empirical importance of scoring well on Par 5s. Homa ranks 81st on the tour this season in Par 5 Scoring. Take Hatton (7140) versus Homa (7139) in Round One head-to-head props (and grab +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-23 |
Max Homa v. Xander Schauffele -124 |
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1-0 |
Loss |
-124 |
11 h 10 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it ranks in the top-five most difficult tournaments to hit Greens-In-Regulation over the last five years. The average score per round last year was 73.886. The rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The biggest challenge will be the winds that are expected to be 20 miles-per-hour on Friday — more on that below as those conditions did influence the golfers I am investing in this week.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +2000 odds at DraftKings. I am avoiding golfers with a late tee-time on Friday with the wind gusts reaching up to 40 miles per hour by 1 PM ET. Frankly, there was a pro I was looking closely at whose almost entire second round takes place when the winds are at their worst. The gusts are going to be a significant challenge all day on Friday — but I just can’t justify investing in a golfer destined to play in the worst of it for his entire second round. Schauffele was on my shortlist — and likely my Top Overlay Bet anyways — and I slot him as my Best Bet with his Friday morning tee-time after he goes off tomorrow at 12:28 PM ET. Schauffele settled for a tie for 33rd place two weeks ago at the PGA The Genesis Invitational after a promising tie for 10th place at PGA WM Phoenix Open where he gained an encouraging +10 strokes versus the field in Ball Striking (Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green). This is Schauffele’s second appearance at this event after a tie for 24th place in 2020. His ball-striking will serve him well this week. Schauffele had back issues a month ago which forced him to withdraw from the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions but he has since demonstrated that he has overcome those issues. He finished tied for 3rd place at The American Express before a tie for 13th place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. He ranks 6th on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Total. He is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour as well as he ranks 7th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Six of the last seven winners at this tournament finished the week in the top-five in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. In his last 24 rounds, Schauffele ranks 2nd in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he ranks 2nd in the field in Ball-Striking. Schauffele ranked 4th on the tour last year in Par 3 Scoring — and the last seven winners at this tournament finished the week in the top six in Par 3 Scoring. And after finishing 17th on the tour last season in Par 5 Scoring, he currently ranks 12th in Par 5 Scoring this season — and the last seven winners of this tournament finished top-ten in Par 5 Scoring for the week. Schauffele also thrives on the Bermuda greens — he ranks 5th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda and lightning-fast greens in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 13th in the field in the last two years in Adjusted Scoring on courses that feature Bermuda greens. Schauffele is linked with Max Homa for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Homa dominated the west coast swing of the PGA Tour — he comes off a 2nd place at The Genesis Invitational after winning the Farmers Insurance Open (as our Top Overlay Bet that week). At the time, I noted how comfortable and effective the Burbank native was putting on Poa Annua greens. That putting surface can be a struggle for those unfamiliar with that bumpier texture. Admittedly, good putters on Poa Annua (like Schauffele, by the way) usually do well on the smoother Bermuda greens. But it is fair to say that Homa’s net advantage over the field diminishes on courses with Bermuda greens. It is noteworthy that Homa has only registered two top-tens in his career when playing at a tournament in Florida. He finished tied for 6th place at the PGA Valspar Challenge — and he did finish in 10th place here at Bay Hill in 2020 albeit against a less-stacked field. The 11-year pro is playing the best golf of his career — but I don’t think he warrants being tied for the 5th top favorite in a field this loaded. He is a very good ball-striker who ranks 15th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He ranked 36th in that metric last year. Schauffele is more reliable in this department. Furthermore, Homa is not as long off the tee as he ranks 53rd in Driving Distance this season — and that drags down his Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee numbers as he ranks 83rd in that metric this season. This course plays long — and I identified earlier the empirical importance of scoring well on Par 5s. Homa ranks 81st on the tour this season in Par 5 Scoring. Take Schauffele (7010) versus Homa (7009) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-02-23 |
Max Homa v. Collin Morikawa -134 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-134 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour continues its Florida swing with the Arnold Palmer Invitational at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. This is a Par 72 tournament on a course consisting of 7466 yards. Bay Hill is one of the most difficult stops on the tour — it ranks in the top-five most difficult tournaments to hit Greens-In-Regulation over the last five years. The average score per round last year was 73.886. The rough grows out to 3 1/2 inches. The greens average 7500 square feet consisting of TifEagle Bermuda greens that measure 13 feet on the stimpmeter. The biggest challenge will be the winds that are expected to be 20 miles-per-hour on Friday — more on that below as those conditions did influence the golfers I am investing in this week.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best odds relative to the odds is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +2000 at DraftKings. Morikawa followed up his missed cut at the PGA WM Phoenix Open with a 6th place finish at the PGA The Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. He led the field in Par 5 Scoring that week — and he is 9th on the tour this season in Par 5 Scoring after finishing 9th in that metric for the 2021-22 season. That bodes well for him this week since the last seven winners of this tournament finished in the top-ten in Par 5 Scoring for the week. Morikawa got stuck in bad weather on the Friday of the PGA WM Phoenix Open with strong winds wreaking havoc on many of the professionals that day. His luck should be better this week with him teeing off early on Friday after his 12:25 PM ET tee-time on Thursday. The heavy winds of up to 40 miles per hour are expected by 1 PM ET on Friday. Morikawa has been close to winning in 2023. He blew his Sunday lead at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first event of 2023 before settling for 2nd place. He followed that ups with a 3rd place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. The five-time winner on the tour is hitting the ball well — and the putter that tends to hold him back has been solid. The +9.8 Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green that he gained on the field at the Farmers Insurance Open was his best effort since the US Open in 2021 — and he went on to win the British Open two starts after that performance so I still think he has a big performance in him coming soon. Morikawa should thrive this week as he ranks 3rd on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy — so he should be in a good position to reach the green in regulation. While this tournament ranks in the top-five most difficult in Greens-In-Regulation rate over the last five years, Morikawa ranks 8th on the tour in Greens in Regulation rate. Morikawa is 5th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 8th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he ranks 5th in that metric in the field this week in his last 24 rounds. Furthermore, Morikawa ranks 5th in the field in the last two years in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bermuda greens — and he ranks 11th in the field in overperformance versus his baseline numbers in the last two years on courses with Bermuda greens. In his previous start at Bay Hill, he finished in 9th place. Morikawa is linked with Max Homa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Homa dominated the west coast swing of the PGA Tour — he comes off a 2nd place at The Genesis Invitational after winning the Farmers Insurance Open (as our Top Overlay Bet that week). At the time, I noted how comfortable and effective the Burbank native was putting on Poa Annua greens. That putting surface can be a struggle for those unfamiliar with that bumpier texture. Admittedly, good putters on Poa Annua usually do well on the smoother Bermuda greens. But it is fair to say that Homa’s net advantage over the field diminishes on courses with Bermuda greens. It is noteworthy that Homa has only registered two top-tens in his career when playing at a tournament in Florida. He finished tied for 6th place at the PGA Valspar Challenge — and he did finish in 10th place here at Bay Hill in 2020 albeit against a less-stacked field. The 11-year pro is playing the best golf of his career — but I don’t think he warrants being tied for the 5th top favorite in a field this loaded. He is a very good ball-striker who ranks 15th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He ranked 36th in that metric last year. Morikawa is more reliable in this department. Furthermore, Homa is not as long off the tee as he ranks 53rd in Driving Distance this season — and that drags down his Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee numbers as he ranks 83rd in that metric this season. This course plays long — and I identified earlier the empirical importance of scoring well on Par 5s. Homa ranks 81st on the tour this season in Par 5 Scoring. Take Morikawa (7008) versus Homa (7007) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-23 |
Chris Kirk +1.5 v. Matt Kuchar |
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1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 24 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Honda Classic at the PGA National Resort The Champion Course in Palm Springs. This is a Par 70 consisting of 7125 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 67 bunkers. Tight fairways, three-inch Bermuda grass rough, and the propensity for high winds add to the intrigue this week. Only two Par 5s are on the course and the Par 3s are notoriously difficult. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The average score last year at this event was 71.341.
Our Top Overlay Play on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Chris Kirk who is listed at +3500 at DraftLings. Kirk was listed at +2500 on Monday but his odds have dropped despite his finishing tied for 7th place at this event last year. He should have a chip on his shoulder after being in second place after Rounds One, Two, and Three before taking a step back in the final round on Sunday. He finished tied for 21st place here in 2021 — so he likes this course. Said Kirk about his preference for courses that feature Bermuda grass greens: "If I know the greens are real quick and I can just kind of let it go, that seems to be when I hit my best putts and I seem to be pretty decent at reading Bermuda greens, so it's a combination of a number of things, but yeah, it's just what I'm most comfortable on." Kirk ranks 5th in the field this week in Adjusted Score when playing on courses with Bermuda greens over the last two years — and he ranks 15th in the field in over-performance on courses with Bermuda greens versus his baseline results over the last two years. Kirk opened 2023 with a 3rd place finish at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i before following that up with a tie for 3rd place at The American Express — but he should have a chip on his shoulder after missing the cut in his most recent event at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Kirk is one of the better ball-strikers on the tour. He ranked 20th on the tour for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and four of the last five winners of this tournament also led the field in that metric. Kirk also ranks fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained on Par 4 holes which will be important this week given the two fewer Par 5s. Kirk is linked with Matt Kuchar for tournament matchup head-to-head props. Kuchar has two top-tens this season after his 8th-place finish last week at the PGA WM Phoenix Open — but he did miss the cut before that at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Kuchar remains elite with his scrambling skills around the green — but he is short off the tee and his ball-striking has declined. Kuchar ranks 150th in Driving Distance for 2022-23. He ranks a solid 26th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green so far this season — but he was 85th in that metric last season. More concerning are the deeper metrics with his second shots. Kuchar ranked 128th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season — and he has only improved to 65th in that metric this year. Kuchar made all four of the cuts when he previously played at the Honda Classic — but this is his first professional trip to the National Resort Champion Course in 12 yards. Take Kirk (7007) versus Kuchar (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-23 |
Shane Lowry -125 v. Billy Horschel |
|
68-65 |
Loss |
-125 |
6 h 6 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Honda Classic at the PGA National Resort The Champion Course in Palm Springs. This is a Par 70 consisting of 7125 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 67 bunkers. Tight fairways, three-inch Bermuda grass rough, and the propensity for high winds add to the intrigue this week. Only two Par 5s are on the course and the Par 3s are notoriously difficult. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The average score last year at this event was 71.341.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Lowry missed the cut at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago — and he was struggling last week at the PGA The Genesis Invitational before his personal coach showed up on Sunday and immediately made some positive adjustments to his swing. Lowry finished tied for 14th place at that event and comes into this tournament with momentum. Said Lowry afterward: "My alignment was a little bit off last week and a new caddie on the bag and my coach wasn't there, so didn't really have the eyes that have been there for the last few years. Then my coach arrived on Sunday and managed to fix a few things and managed to get my little fade going in and I'm hitting some nice iron shots again." Lowry ranks second on the PGA Tour for 2022-23 in Total Driving — and that helps him rank 12th on the tour in Par 5 Scoring which will be critical this week given only the two Par 5 birdie opportunities. He also ranks third in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last 36 rounds — and he ranks fifth in Ball-Striking in his last 36 rounds versus the field. The professionals hit Greens-In-Regulation only 60% of the time last year — below the 66% average on the PGA Tour overall — so reaching the green is important. Lowry will have a chip on his shoulder this week as well after finishing in second place at this tournament last year after getting stung by bad weather that probably cost him the championship. The Irishman and former British Open winner usually handles the weather well (sometimes the weather is going to win) — he leads the field in Shots-Gained in his last 24 rounds under difficult weather conditions. He set a course record last year by recording only four bogeys in his four rounds which is very difficult given all the water and sand hazards. He has made the cut in all five of his trips here — and nine of his 12 rounds have been a score of 70 or better. Lowry is linked with Billy Horschel for Round one head-to-head matchups. Horschel comes into this event in bad form in 2023. He opened the new year with a tie for 30th place at the no-cut PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions that featured only 39 professionals. He then missed the cut at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i. He finished tied for 32nd place two weeks ago at the PGA WM Phoenix Open but then missed the cut last week at The Genesis Invitational. Horschel does prefer to play in Florida on the Bermuda grass — but it is asking a lot for him to simply flip the switch and outperform Lowry even when only looking at Round One. Four of the last five winners of this event have also led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — but Horschel currently ranks 122nd on the tour in that category. Nine of the last ten winners of this tournament have finished in the top ten for the week in Scrambling — but Horschel ranks 69th on the tour in Scrambling this season. Horschel also ranks 95th in Par 5 Scoring so he is not likely to gain ground against Lowry on those two Par 5s tomorrow. Horschel has two top-tens in his ten trips at The Honda Classic with his best finish being a tie for fourth place in 2017 — but he has also missed the cut four times. His Round One average in his ten previous Thursdays is 71.5 — and while his best Round One was four-under par, he has finished over Par six times. Take Lowry (7115) versus Horschel (7116) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-23-23 |
JT Poston v. Jhonattan Vegas -125 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 42 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour departs from its west coast swing to Florida for the next three weeks beginning with the Honda Classic at the PGA National Resort The Champion Course in Palm Springs. This is a Par 70 consisting of 7125 yards. The professionals will be challenged by water hazards that impact 15 holes along with 67 bunkers. Tight fairways, three-inch Bermuda grass rough, and the propensity for high winds add to the intrigue this week. Only two Par 5s are on the course and the Par 3s are notoriously difficult. The 7000 square foot putting greens consist of TifEagle Bermuda grass that measures up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The average score last year at this event was 71.341.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites is on Jhonattan Vegas who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Vegas was outside the top-ten favorites on Monday when listed at this price — but he is now in a six-way tie for the ninth-lowest price at DraftKings at that same price after Alex Noren withdrew from the event on Tuesday after being priced at +2200. I am not getting off Vegas despite the six-way tie for 9th to 14th place. Vegas took a five-month hiatus on the tour before returning last month. He has two top-25 finishes in his last three events with a tied for 25th place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open before a tie for 23rd place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open two weeks ago. He comes off a tie for 56th place last week at the PGA The Genesis Invitational — but don’t blame his ball-striking. Vegas gained +5.9 strokes in Ball-Striking versus the field last week — but it was his putter that let him down. He has historically performed better with his blade when putting on the softer Bermuda greens — more on that soon. Let’s first dive deeper into his outstanding ball-striking skills. In his four events since returning from his fall break, Vegas has gained +3.3 strokes versus the field per round Tee-to-Green and +1.6 strokes in the Approach per round. Vegas leads the tour in 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he ranks 4th in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He leads the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last 12 rounds. Vegas also ranks 7th in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bermuda greens in the last two years. Vegas has an outstanding course history at the Honda Classic where he has made the cut in eight of his ten visits with six straight cuts made. His best finish was a tie for 4th place — and he has two other ties for 16th place. He has made the cut in six straight trips here and, perhaps most importantly, he has gained strokes versus the field with his putter in three of his last four appearances at this tournament. Vegas is linked with J.T. Poston in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Boston was playing great with four straight top-21 finishes culminating in a tie for 6th place at The American Express — but he has since missed the cut at the PGA WM Phoenix Open and then at the PGA The Genesis Invitational so his form is now in significant question. Poston only ranks 103rd on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and four of the last five winners at this event finished the week topping the field in that metric. Boston ranks 170th on the tour in Scrambling this season — and nine of the last ten winners of this tournament finished in the to-ten that week in Scrambling. Poston has made the cut in four of his visits to this tournament — but he has never finished in the top—ten. Take Vegas (7014) versus Poston (7013) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-16-23 |
Sam Burns v. Cameron Young +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 0 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California for The Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host of this event featuring a loaded field. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with elevated greens and fairways protected by trees. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find the strategic placements on the greens that average 7500 square feet in size. The overseeded greens feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Cameron Young who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Young’s short game let him down last week as he finished in 64th place at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Young closed his 2022 season with two top-seven finishes before a tie for 13th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in early January and then a tie for 26th place at The American Express. Young finished in second place at this tournament last year — and he should thrive once again given his strong driver. After finishing second on the tour for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, he currently leads the tour in Driving Distance. The Riviera Country Club ranks in the top-12 with the toughest fairways to hit and the lowest Greens-in-Regulation rate — so a long driver that gets closer to the green has an edge over most of the field. Young also ranks seventh in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in his last 48 rounds — and he ranks eighth in the field in Ball-Striking in his last 48 rounds. Furthermore, Young does better on courses with Poa Annua greens where he gains +0.35 strokes per round versus the field on average. Young has nine top-20 finishes in his 16 professional starts on courses with Poa Annua greens. Young is linked with Sam Burns in head-to-head tournament matchups. Burns comes off a sixth-place finish at the PGA WM Phoenix Open last week — and he finished in third place at this tournament in 2021. But Burns’ skill set still does not fit well with the demands of the Riviera Country Club. Six of the last seven winners at this tournament finished in the top five for the week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — but Burns ranks 94th for the 2022-23 season on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Burns is just 150th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 87th in Greens-in-Regulation this season. If and when Burns misses the green this week, he ranks only 71st in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Given these numbers, it should not be a surprise that Burns has missed the cut twice in his four previous visits to this event. Take Young (7024) versus Burns (7023) in head-to-head tournament matchups (and take Young plus +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-16-23 |
Justin Thomas v. Collin Morikawa +0.5 |
|
68-66 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California for The Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host of this event featuring a loaded field. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with elevated greens and fairways protected by trees. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find the strategic placements on the greens that average 7500 square feet in size. The overseeded greens feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best odds relative to the odds is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +2000 at DraftKings. Morikawa missed the cut last week at the PGA WM Phoenix Open after getting stuck in the bad weather on Friday with strong winds wreaking havoc on many of the professionals. That unfortunate turn of events gave Morikawa two days off over the weekend and a chip on his shoulder for this tournament. Morikawa has been close to winning previously in 2023. He blew his Sunday lead at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first event of 2023 before settling for 2nd place. He followed that ups with a 3rd place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. The five-time winner on the tour is hitting the ball well — and the putter that tends to hold him back has been solid. The +9.8 Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green that he gained on the field three weeks ago was his best effort since the US Open in 2021 — and he went on to win the British Open two starts after that performance. Morikawa should thrive this week as he ranks second on the tour this season in Driving Accuracy — so he should be in a good position to reach the green in regulation. While this tournament has finished in the top-12 most difficult in Greens-In-Regulation rate over the last five years, Morikawa ranks sixth on the tour in Greens in Regulation rate. Morikawa is seventh on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and six of the last seven winners at this tournament finished in the top five that week in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Additionally, Morikawa ranks third in the field this week in Ball-Striking over his last 24 rounds after finishing 11th in that metric for the 2021-22 season. He is 13th this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Lastly, Morikawa thrives on courses with Poa Annua greens. He leads the field in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Poa Annua greens in the last two years — and he also leads the field this week in overperformance on courses with Poa Annua greens versus his baseline numbers. Morikawa grew up only 30 miles from the Riviera Country Club — so this is a home event for him. He has made all three cuts in his previous three appearances at this tournament including a tie for second place last year. Morikawa is linked with Justin Thomas for head-to-head Round One matchups. Thomas’ form had been shaky with two ties for 25th results at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions and then the PGA Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago — but he played his best golf in nine months last week with his fourth-place finish at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Since winning the PGA Championship in May, he had not finished better than 5th place before last week. Inconsistency remains Thomas’ weakness right now — so I am comfortable fading him this week. The biggest culprit has been with his putter — he ranks 159th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting for the 2022-23 season. His ball-striking has also been uncharacteristically unreliable this season — he ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season and 54th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Scrambling is important at this event considering that this tournament ranks in the top-12 on the tour with the lowest Greens-In-Regulation rate in the last five years. Thomas ranks 99th in the tour this season in Scrambling. Thomas ranks 15th in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring over the last two years when playing on courses with Poa Annua greens — a solid but not elite ranking for the golfer ranked as the fourth favorite this week. Thomas has averaged a score of just 70.25 in the opening round of his eight professional opening rounds at the Riviera Country Club including a rough 74 and 77 in two of his last three Thursdays at this tournament. Take Morikawa (7140) versus Thomas (7139) in Round one head-to-head props (and take Morikawa at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-16-23 |
Justin Thomas v. Xander Schauffele -115 |
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1-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 59 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour completes its west coast swing by moving to the Riviera Country Club in Palisades, California for The Genesis Invitational. Tiger Woods is the host of this event featuring a loaded field. This Par-71 course consists of 7322 yards with elevated greens and fairways protected by trees. This tournament is typically graded as one of the top ten most difficult on the PGA Tour while being considered a thinker’s course regarding how to avoid the bunkers and find the strategic placements on the greens that average 7500 square feet in size. The overseeded greens feature Poa annua grass that measures up to 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Schauffele comes off a promising tie for 10th place at PGA WM Phoenix Open where he gained an encouraging +10 strokes versus the field in Ball Striking (Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee plus Strokes-Gained: Approach the Green). It was his putter that let him down last week — but he tends to perform better on Poa Annua greens. Schauffele had back issues a month ago which forced him to withdraw from the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions but he has since demonstrated that he has overcome those issues. He finished tied for 3rd place at The American Express two weeks later before a tie for 13th place two weeks ago at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. He ranks 3rd on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Total. He is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour as well as he ranks 5th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranked 4th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Six of the last seven winners at this tournament finished the week in the top five in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. In his last 36 rounds, Schauffele ranks fourth in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranks third in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and seventh in Bogey Avoidance. Furthermore, he ranks fourth in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring when playing on courses with Poa Annua greens. Schauffele has a strong track record at this event as he has made all five cuts in his five previous appearances while never finishing worst than tied for 23rd place. He has four top-15 finishes at this tournament with ninth place being his best result. Schauffele is linked with Justin Thomas in head-to-head tournament matchups. Thomas’ form had been shaky with two ties for 25th results at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions and then the PGA Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago — but he played his best golf in nine months last week with his fourth-place finish at the PGA WM Phoenix Open. Since winning the PGA Championship in May, he had not finished better than 5th place before last week. Inconsistency remains Thomas’ weakness right now — so I am comfortable fading him this week. The biggest culprit has been with his putter — he ranks 159th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting for the 2022-23 season. His ball-striking has also been uncharacteristically unreliable this season — he ranks 65th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season and 54th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Scrambling is important at this event considering that this tournament ranks in the top-12 on the tour with the lowest Greens-In-Regulation rate in the last five years. Thomas ranks 99th in the tour this season in Scrambling. Thomas ranks 15th in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring over the last two years when playing on courses with Poa Annua greens — a solid but not elite ranking for the golfer ranked as the fourth favorite this week. Take Schauffele (7008) versus Thomas (7007) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-09-23 |
Xander Schauffele -145 v. Justin Thomas |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-145 |
1 h 1 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Tiffeagle Bermuda grass with a mixed grain blend that plays fast and firm.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Schauffele had back issues a month ago which forced him to withdraw from the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions but he has since demonstrated that he has overcome those issues. He finished tied for 3rd place at The American Express two weeks later before a tie for 13th place two weeks ago at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. He ranks 3rd on the tour for the 2022-23 season in Shots-Gained: Total. He is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour as well as he ranks 7th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he ranked 8th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He ranks 4th in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring over the last two years on courses that require a full driver. Schauffele has enjoyed great success here at this event by making the cut in all five of his trips while finishing in 2nd place in 2021 and tied for 3rd place at last year’s tournament — so he is comfortable with the lively crowds. He leads the tournament in career scoring average at this tournament for those players who have played at least 20 rounds at the event. Past winners of this tournament have also had good recent success at the US Open — and Schauffele is 2nd on the tour in scoring average at US Opens since 2016. Schauffele is linked with Justin Thomas in head-to-head tournament matchups. Thomas’ form has been shaky with two ties for 25th results at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions and then the PGA Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. Since winning the PGA Championship in May, he has not finished better than 5th place. The biggest culprit has been his putter — he ranks 180th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting for the 2022-23 season. His ball-striking has also been uncharacteristically unreliable this season — he ranks 108th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season and 102nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Thomas has two 4th place finishes at this tournament — but he has also missed the cut in two of his eight trips. Take Schauffele (7009) versus Thomas (7010) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-09-23 |
Collin Morikawa -113 v. Max Homa |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Tiffeagle Bermuda grass with a mixed grain blend that plays fast and firm.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the best odds relative to the odds is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1600 at DraftKings. Morikawa blew his Sunday lead at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in the first event of 2023 before settling for 2nd place. He followed that ups with a 3rd place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. The five-time winner on the tour is hitting the ball well — and the putter that tends to hold him back has been solid. The +9.8 Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green that he gained on the field two weeks ago was his best effort since the US Open in 2021 — and he went on to win the British Open two starts after that performance. Morikawa is 3rd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 3rd on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation — and he leads the field this week in that metric in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 5th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last 24 rounds. Morikawa finished tied for 25th place in 2020 in his lone trip to TPC Scottsdale at this tournament. He lost 4.9 strokes to the field with his putter that week but still managed a solid score. If he can putt better this week, he has a great chance to win. Morikawa is linked with Max Homa for head-to-head tournament matchups. We were on Homa as our Top Overlay Bet two weeks ago at the Farmers — and he rewarded us with the 1st place trophy. Homa has been solid at this event by making the cut in all four of his visits with two top-15 finishes. Homa has top-four finishes in his last three PGA Tour events going back to December — but I don’t love him following up on the emotional high of his victory two weeks ago. He had two wins on the PGA Tour last year — winning the Fortinet Championship in September of 2021 before later winning the Wells Fargo Championship in early May. He followed up both those events with a tie for 72nd place and a tie for 13th place. Homa is not as equipped to thrive on courses that reward big drivers off the tee. He ranks 57th in Driving Distance this season — and he ranks 54th in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee. Take Morikawa (7013) versus Homa (7014) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best o luck for us — Frank.
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02-09-23 |
Hideki Matsuyama +0.5 v. Cameron Young |
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74-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to Scottsdale, Arizona to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course with the festive crowds at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7261 yards. Long drivers are usually rewarded at this tournament given the smaller rough on this desert course. The professionals will contend with 68 sand traps and water hazards that impact six of the holes. The large putting surfaces of just over 7000 square feet in size are made of Tiffeagle Bermuda grass with a mixed grain blend that plays fast and firm.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. Matsuyama loves this tournament — he won this event in 2016 and 2017. Overall, he has five top-tens at this tournament including a 2nd place in 2015, a 4th place in 2014, and an 8th place result last year. Matsuyama has finished under par in 31 of his 33 rounds here. Matsuyama is in good form so far this season. He opened with a tie for 21st place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions before settling for 48th place at the PGA Sony Open last month despite gaining +4.9 strokes versus the field in Approach. He then followed that up with a tie for 9th place at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago which could set him up nicely for a big week. The 2021 Masters champion ranked 6th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Matsuyama is linked with Cameron Young in Round One head-to-head propositions. I like Young — but he has to overcome a challenging travel schedule after finishing in 2nd place at the Saudi Invitational just last week. His last PGA Tour event was at The American Express three weeks ago where he finished tied for 26th place. Young is one of the best drivers on the tour — but he ranks just 46th this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He finished in 26th place on his first trip to TPC Scottsdale last year. I like Young — but not fresh off a trip across the globe against a veteran like Matsuyama who plays this course so well. Take Matsuyama (7121) versus Young (7122) in Round One head-to-head matchups (and take Matsuyama at +0.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-23 |
Seamus Power -135 v. Keith Mitchell |
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72-67 |
Loss |
-135 |
2 h 45 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event features 156 professionals teaming with amateurs with the top 60 pros along with ties making the cut on Sunday. The golfers will rotate on three courses for the first 56 holes. The Spyglass Hill Golf Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. The Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course is a Par 71 (with five Par 3s) consisting of 6934 yards. The famed Pebble Beach course is a Par 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will also host the fourth round — and Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter with putting surfaces that are the smallest on the PGA Tour on average.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Seamus Power who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Power won the Bermuda Championship in late October — and then he followed that up with 3rd place, 5th place, 25th place, and then 20th place worldwide. Power ranked 10th on the PGA Tour for the 2021-22 season in Par-4 Scoring — and the last eight winners at this event finished in 1st or 2nd place for the week in Par-4 Scoring. Power enters the week 3rd in the field in Birdies or Better Percentage in his last 24 rounds. He also thrives with his putting on Poa Annua greens as he ranks 6th in the field this week in Shots-Gained per round on courses featuring that putting surface in his last 24 rounds. The 35-year-old has something to prove this week after blowing a five-stroke lead after the first three rounds last year to settle for a tie for 9th place. The temperatures are expected to be mild in the Bay Area this week — but the Irishman should be comfortable with weather under 60 degrees. Power is linked with Keith Mitchell in Round One head-to-head props. Mitchell is big off the tee — he ranked 4th on the PGA Tour in 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But that skill is not as important at this short course — and he may get in trouble getting on the small greens. Mitchell ranked 111th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and he has dropped to 117th in that metric this year. He ranked 118th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green last season and now ranks just 83rd in that metric for 2022-23 so he misses the green, and he may struggle to save par on his next shot. Mitchell missed the cut in his first event at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i last month. He finished tied for 23rd place two weeks ago at The American Express. But the University of Georgia grad has a spotty record at this course. He has missed the cut twice in his five trips to the Pro-Am — and he missed the cut in the 2019 US Open. He finish tied for 12th place last year — but his previous best result was just 32nd place in 2020. Take Power (7123) versus Mitchell (7124) in Round one head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-23 |
Kurt Kitayama v. Nick Taylor -125 |
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64-68 |
Loss |
-125 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event features 156 professionals teaming with amateurs with the top 60 pros along with ties making the cut on Sunday. The golfers will rotate on three courses for the first 56 holes. The Spyglass Hill Golf Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. The Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course is a Par 71 (with five Par 3s) consisting of 6934 yards. The famed Pebble Beach course is a Par 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will also host the fourth round — and Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter with putting surfaces that are the smallest on the PGA Tour on average.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is with Nick Taylor who is listed at +7500 to win this event at DraftKings. Taylor has registered four top-25s for the 2022-23 season including a tie for 7th place at the PGA Sony Open — but he may have a chip on his shoulder after missing the cut in his last event two weeks ago at The American Express. Taylor usually performs well at tournaments that feature Poa Annua greens. He ranks 11th in the field in Shots-Gained per round at courses with Poa Annua greens in the last two years — and he is 8th in the field in overperforming versus his baseline numbers in the last two years at tournaments with Poa Annua greens. Taylor also ranks 3rd in the field this week in course history at Pebble Beach in his last 24 rounds. He won this tournament in 2020 — and he has two other top-14 finishes in his eight trips here. Taylor is linked with Kurt Kitayama for Round One head-to-head props. Kitayama missed the cut last week at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open after a tie for 73rd place in his previous PGA event at the Sony Open last month. His reliability in reaching the greens may hold him back on this course. For the 2021-22 season, he ranked 77th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. If he gets into trouble, he ranked only 102nd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green so saving par may be a problem. This season, he has improved on those numbers in his limited events — but he ranks just 80th in Shots-Gained: Total. He also ranks only 56th in Greens-In-Regulation this year after ranking 116th in Greens-In-Regulation last season. Kitayama finished in 18th place in his first trip here in 2020 — but he missed the cut last year. Take Taylor (7120) versus Kitayama (7119) in Round One head-to-head matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-02-23 |
Maverick McNealy -125 v. Tom Hoge |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves north from San Diego up the coast to the Monterey Peninsula for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach, California. This event features 156 professionals teaming with amateurs with the top 60 pros along with ties making the cut on Sunday. The golfers will rotate on three courses for the first 56 holes. The Spyglass Hill Golf Course is a Par 72 consisting of 7041 yards. The Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course is a Par 71 (with five Par 3s) consisting of 6934 yards. The famed Pebble Beach course is a Par 72 consisting of 6972 yards and will also host the fourth round — and Pebble Beach was the site of the 2019 US Open. The greens feature Poa Annua grass that will approach 12 feet on the stimpmeter with putting surfaces that are the smallest on the PGA Tour on average.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Maverick McNealy who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. McNealy finished the fall leg of the PGA Tour with four top-25 finishes in his final five events — and then he followed that up with a tie for 7th place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i last month in his first tournament in 2023. He settled for a tie for 31st place last week at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. McNealy is very familiar and comfortable with this course — his family even had a home on this course as a child. Said McNealy: "I tend to play well closer to home, and I'm just really excited to be on a golf course I'm comfortable at, with conditions I'm familiar with. It would be really, really fun to win here.” McNealy finished tied for the place at this tournament in 2020 — he then finished in 2nd place last year. He fell off to 33rd place at this tournament last year — so he may have something extra to prove. He does rank 4th in the field in course history over the last two years. He thrives when dealing with the Poa Annua greens that can frustrate so many professionals. He ranks 4th in Adjusted Scoring in the field this week over the last two years when playing on courses with Poa Annua greens. McNealy is 2nd on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he has averaged +0.9 Shots-Gained: Putting per round since 2020 on Poa Annua greens. He also ranks 3rd in the field over the last two years when putting on fast Poa Annua surfaces. McNealy loves these shower courses with small greens. Four of his five best results in his professional career have been at Pebble Beach (twice) plus the PGA Sony Open and the RBC Heritage which share those characteristics. McNealy is linked with Tom Home for tournament matchup head-to-head props. Hoge is the defending champion at Pebble Beach — but that means some increased responsibilities this year which add to the challenge of trying to repeat his 1st place title. Hoge leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green for 2022-23 which is critical for success this week given the small greens. But after finishing tied for 3rd place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions to begin 2023 in Hawai’i, he fell back to a tie for 41st place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i before finishing tied for 32nd place at The American Express two weeks ago. A loss of sharpness with his irons could get Hoge in trouble this week since he struggles if he misses the green. Hoge ranks 197th this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Hoge’s course history here is spotty as he has missed the cut in three of his eight appearances here. His second-best result at Pebble Beach was 12th place in 2021 — but the best finish in his other three events here was 39th place in 2017. Take McNealy (7007) versus Home (7008) in tournament match head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-25-23 |
Will Zalatoris -165 v. Hideki Matsuyama |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-165 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The rough grow out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — and it actually ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of three shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. Furthermore, heavy winds are expected on Thursday for the second round — and that will impact our strategy. We want to avoid golfers playing the easier North Course on Thursday since they will have to deal with these winds; instead, we want want to target golfers who can take advantage of the easier North Course in better weather conditions on Wednesday. Jon Rahm is the clear favorite at this event given his red-hot form and excellent cause history here — and he is listed at a mere +450 at DraftKings to win this event. But he gets the North Course on Thursday — giving us another reason to fade him (besides his odds being simply too small relative to the strong field).
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings. The concern with Zalatoris entering the new year was how he would respond to his back issues after two herniated discs forced him to withdraw from the PGA BMW Championship in the fall. He performed well in his first start of the season with a tie for 11th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks ago with all four of his rounds below 70. He followed up that effort with a tie for 36th place at The American Express. All eight of his rounds in 2023 have been in the 60s — so his form is good. He thrives on difficult courses. Zalatoris had won the FedEx St. Jude the previous week in August last summer before his back issues developed. He also finished 2nd at the US Open along with the PGA Championship. In the ten major championships he has played at, he has finished 8th place to better in eight of those events. He is already one of the best ball-strikers in the world — he led the PGA Tour in both Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Zalatoris’ blade has been the biggest weakness in his game — but an alteration in his putting stroke has helped him improve that aspect of his game last summer. He ranks 8th in the field in Adjusted Scoring on course with Poa Annua greens over the last two years. He has an excellent course history at Torrey Pines as well. After a tie for 7th place in 2021, he was tied for the lead after 54 and 72 holes last year before losing in a playoff and settling for 2nd place to Luke List last year — so he has something to prove this week. Zalatoris is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in head-to-head tournament matchups. Matsuyama has been solid but unexceptional so far in 2023. After a tie for 21st place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions, he slumped the next week with a tie for 48th place at the Sony Open. When he is on his game, he is one of the best ball strikers on the tour. But so far for the 2022-23 season, he ranks 78th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 71st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Five of the last six winners at this tournament finished the week in the top-16 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Gree, Even going back to last season’s metrics, Matsuyama does not fare as well as Zalatoris. Driving distance is critical at Torrey Pines with 11 of the last 17 winners ranking in the top-30 in Driving Distance for the season. Zalatoris ranked 13th in Driving Distance for 2021-22. Proximity from 200 yards or farther out is also critical on the long South Course. And while Matsuyama ranked 12th on the tour in Approach from 200 yards or beyond, Zalatoris ranked 5th in that metric. Matsuyama finished tied for 3rd at this tournament in 2019 — but that is his only top-ten in nine trips. Take Zalatoris (7017) versus Matsuyama (7018) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-25-23 |
Taylor Montgomery v. Max Homa -120 |
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0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 52 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The rough grow out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — and it actually ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of three shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. Furthermore, heavy winds are expected on Thursday for the second round — and that will impact our strategy. We want to avoid golfers playing the easier North Course on Thursday since they will have to deal with these winds; instead, we want want to target golfers who can take advantage of the easier North Course in better weather conditions on Wednesday. Jon Rahm is the clear favorite at this event given his red-hot form and excellent cause history here — and he is listed at a mere +450 at DraftKings to win this event. But he gets the North Course on Thursday — giving us another reason to fade him (besides his odds being simply too small relative to the strong field).
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Max Homa who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Homa was born and raised in Southern California before playing his college golf at the University of California-Berkeley — so he is comfortable and experienced in this environment. He likes putting on Poa Annua greens. He has nine top-20s in his last 11 tournaments with Poa Annua putting surfaces — and that includes three wins. He ranks 6th in the field in Adjusted Scoring the last two years on courses with Poa Annua greens. Homa is in good form with his last event being at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions last month where he finished tied for 3rd place. Homa is well-rounded with good ball-striking skills. For the 2021-22 season, he ranked 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total while ranking 24th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. So far for 2022-23, Homa ranks 7th in Shots-Gained: Total and 21st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Homa finished tied for 18th at this tournament in 2021 after a tie for 9th place in 2020 — and he should be feisty in his return to La Jolla this year after missing the cut at this event last year. Homa is linked with Taylor Montgomery in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Montgomery finished in the 57th place at the US Open at Torrey Pines in 2021 before a tie for 11th place at the Farmers last year. While that is a great finish for the rookie this season, it should be noted that 12 of the last 14 winners of this tournament had previously finished in the top-ten at this event — and Homa meets this qualification with his 2020 performance. Montgomery is the early favorite for the Rookie of the Year this season after making all nine of his cuts with eight top-15 finishes. But his ball-striking is not elite. Montgomery ranks 157th on the tour for 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 84th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Five of the last six winners at this event finished in the top-16 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the week. Montgomery is an outstanding putter — but the long distance and the smaller greens at the South Course are a mix that does not fit his game. Montgomery ranks tied for 94th this season in his Approach from 200 yards or farther. Homa ranked 25th in that metric last season. Take Homa (7024) versus Montgomery (7023) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-25-23 |
Maverick McNealy -130 v. J.J. Spaun |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 6 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to La Jolla, just north of San Diego, for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. This regular stop on the PGA Tour also hosted the US Open in 2021. The 156 professionals will rotate between the North and South Courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the top 65 golfers making the cut advance to the final two rounds which will be played at the South course. Success at this course requires the golfers to use all 14 clubs in their bags. The rough grow out to four inches. The North Course plays much easier than the South Course — and it actually ranks as one of the easiest tracks on the tour. At 7258 yards, the pros on the North Course shot an average of three shots better there than on the South Course which consists of 7765 yards with narrow fairways and small greens. The Poa Annua greens on the South Course play slower and can be more of a challenge than the Bentgrass putting surface on the North Course. Furthermore, heavy winds are expected on Thursday for the second round — and that will impact our strategy. We want to avoid golfers playing the easier North Course on Thursday since they will have to deal with these winds; instead, we want want to target golfers who can take advantage of the easier North Course in better weather conditions on Wednesday. Jon Rahm is the clear favorite at this event given his red-hot form and excellent cause history here — and he is listed at a mere +450 at DraftKings to win this event. But he gets the North Course on Thursday — giving us another reason to fade him (besides his odds being simply too small relative to the strong field).
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Maverick McNealy who is listed at +3500 odds at DraftKings. McNealy finished the fall leg of the PGA Tour with four top-25 finishes in his final five events — and then he followed that up with a tie for 7th place at the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i last month in his first tournament in 2023. McNealy ranks 2nd on the tour for 2022-23 in Adjusted Scoring. He also ranks 11th in Adjusted Scoring in the field this week over the last two years when playing on courses with Poa Annua greens. Furthermore, McNealy leads the field in Par-4 Scoring on holes from 450 to 500 yards in his last 24 rounds — so the longer Par-4s on the South Course may offer him an advantage. He has made the cut here in three of his four trips to Torrey Pines headlined by a tie for 15th place in 2020. McNealy is linked with J.J. Spaun for tournament matchup head-to-head props. Spaun is consistent and has started 2023 with a tie for 5th at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions before a tie for 12th place at the PGA Sony Open to complete Hawai’i swing. But Spaun’s ball-striking holds him back from excelling at more difficult courses like this. Last year for 2021-22, he ranked 86th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 84th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he ranks 87th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season. Five of the last six winners at this event finished the week in the top-16 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Spaun may struggle with the long Par-4s on the South Course as well — he ranked tied for 125th on the tour last season in Approach from 200 yards or beyond. The SoCal native and San Diego State alum has made the cut at this event in four of his six trips to Torrey Pines (not including his missed cut here at the 2021 US Open). His best finish was a 9th place result in 2017 — but he comes off a more meager 34th place last year. Take McNealy (7029) versus Spaun (7030) in tournament matchup head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-19-23 |
Aaron Wise v. Cameron Davis +0.5 |
|
70-72 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend with Poa Annua and ryegrass. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Cam Davis who is listed at +4500 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Since the PGA Championship last May, Davis has made the cut in 13 of his last 14 events. He comes off a tie for 32nd place last week at the PGA Sony Open — but his underlying metrics were very encouraging. He led the event in Eagles while gaining +4.9 Strokes: Off-the-Tee and +2.9 strokes versus the field in Approach the Green. It was his putting and play around the green that held him back last week — but he is still one of the most well-rounded golfers on the tour so he can bounce back in those areas this week. Davis is 2nd in the field this week in Opportunities Gained (birdie chances within 15 feet) over his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 14th in Putting from 5 to 10 feet and 35th in Putting from 10 to 15 feet in his last 24 rounds. Furthermore, in his last 24 rounds, he ranks top 24 or better in the field in Approach the Green, Par 3s Gained, Par-5s Gained, and Opportunities Gained. He has made the cut in all three of his previous trips — all top-29 or better finishes — and headlined by a tie for 3rd place in 2021. Davis is linked with Aaron Wise in head-to-head Round One matchups. Wise has struggled at this event by missing the cut in each of his last three trips here. Wise is struggling with his irons so far for 2022-23 — he ranks 165th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 92nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Davis (7124) versus Wise (7123) in head-to-head Round One matchups -- and grab the +0.5 stroke option if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-19-23 |
Patrick Cantlay +1.5 v. Scottie Scheffler |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend with Poa Annua and ryegrass.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Patrick Cantlay who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. Cantlay thrives at non-majors. He closed out the 2021-22 season with five top-eight finishes in his final six tournaments including winning the PGA BMW Championships in the second leg of the FedEx Playoffs. After taking an extended break in the fall after settling for a tie for 2nd place at the Shriner’s Children Open in early October, he returned to action two weeks ago with a solid 16th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in Maui. Cantlay is one of the most well-rounded golfers on the tour. He finished in the top 38 or better in the top-six Shots-Gained metrics. He is good with his blade after ranking 28th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season — so he can thrive in events requiring a big number like this one. In his last 50 rounds, he ranks in the top seven in those six metrics including 5th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. He ranks 3rd in the field in Shots-Gained: Total — and he leads the field in scoring at Pete Dye-designed courses in his last 36 rounds. Furthermore, Cantlay typically performs well in what are considered easier courses. Not only does he lead the field in adjusted scoring in the last two years in “easier” courses, but he also leads the field in performance above his baseline when playing at easier courses over the last two years. He has something to prove at this event after topping the leaderboard after 18 and 36 holes last year before settling for 9th place. He finished in 2nd place here two years ago. Cantlay is linked with Scottie Scheffler in head-to-head tournament matchups. Scheffler is great — but his skills shine better at more challenging courses. He only ranks 157 in Shots-Gained: Putting for 2022-23 after finishing 58th on the tour with his blade last season. And while he finished tied for 7th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks ago, his ranking of 60th this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green leaves something to be desired in his game. Take Cantlay (7005) versus Scheffler (7006) in head-to-head tournament matchups — and grab the +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-19-23 |
Cameron Young v. Will Zalatoris -115 |
|
68-69 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 17 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to California with The American Express at PGA West in Palm Springs. This Pro-am event features 156 professional golfers paired in threes with one amateur for the first three days rotating between three tracks at Pete Dye Stadium, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the La Quinta Country Club. After 56 holes, the top 65 golfers plus ties will make the cut to compete on Sunday at the Dye Stadium Course. This is considered one of the easier tournaments on the tour with the hole placements accommodating the amateurs. The small greens relative to other events consist of a Bermuda grass blend with Poa Annua and ryegrass.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. The concern with Zalatoris entering the new year was how he would respond to his back issues after two herniated discs forced him to withdraw from the PGA BMW Championship in the fall. He performed well in his first start of the season with a tie for 11th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions two weeks ago with all four of his rounds below 70. Zalatoris had won the FedEx St. Jude the previous week in August last summer before his back issues developed. He also finished 2nd at the US Open along with the PGA Championship. He is already one of the best ball-strikers in the world — he led the PGA Tour in both Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He leads the field in his last 24 rounds in Opportunities Gained (birdies opportunities inside of 15 feet). He fared well for himself in his debut here last year when he finished tied for 6th place. Zalatoris is linked with Cameron Young in head-to-head Round One matchups. Young is one of the top drivers off the tee on the tour — but his iron play is not always elite. He ranked 91st on the PGA Tour for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranked only 143rd in Par-3 Scoring which is an important metric for success at this event. This is his second appearance at this tournament after settling for 40th place last year after starting tied for 5th place before bottoming out with a score of 77 in his final round. Unfortunately for Young, 11 of the last 14 winners here had previously finished 33rd or better at this tournament. Play Zalatoris (7104) versus Young (7103) in head-to-head Round One matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-12-23 |
Sungjae Im -159 v. Jordan Spieth |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-159 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Hawai’i start to the 2023 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 67.998 per round. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +1200 to take the title at DraftKings. Im comes off a solid tie for 13th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions last week in Maui. That was his eighth top-15 finish in his last ten tournaments worldwide. Im looks poised to break out as a star this year. The 24-year-old is a grinder on the tour who has accumulated tons of experience already in his young career. He posted three top-fives in his final eight events to close out 2022. In his last 50 rounds in 2022, he gained on average +1.24 shots per round versus the field. He is improving in all four areas of his game off the tee, in the approach, around the green, and with his putting. While he did not win an event last year, he did finish in 2nd place four times from mid-July on. His distance off the tee is not one of his strengths — so this is a course that feeds into his strengths. Im has a well-rounded game — his ranking of 45th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green was his worst rating. He finished 6th in Shots-Gained: Total last season. Im has been solid but not spectacular in his four previous trips to this event — so he may be poised for a breakout week. His best results at the Waialae Country Club are a tie for 16th place and a tie for 25th place. Im fits the profile I am looking for this week: prior experience at this event after competing at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions this previous week. Only one time in the last 18 PGA Sony Opens here at Waialae were won by a professional making their debut at this tournament. And eight of the last nine winners here competed in Maui at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions the previous week. Im is linked with Jordan Spieth in head-to-head tournament matchup props. Spieth also finished tied for 13th place last week — and with a 3rd place in 2017 representing his top result at this tournament, he fits the profile I am looking for this week. But I am not in love with Spieth’s form at the moment. He ranks 104th on the tour in 2022-23 in Shots-Gained: Putting after an inconsistent 2021-22 campaign where he ranked 155th with his blade. Successful putting is essential this week. Since 2010, the winner of the Sony Open gained 48.6% of their shots versus the field with their putter — the highest net percentage of all events on the PGA. Spieth has not been sharp with his irons so far this season either with him ranking just 176th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Second shot success this week is vital since it will likely take a score in the -20s to lift the trophy — the pros need birdie opportunities with their putter. Spieth has not played in this event since 2019 when he missed the cut. Take Im (7005) versus Spieth (7006) in head-to-head tournament matchup props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-12-23 |
Hideki Matsuyama +1.5 v. Russell Henley |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
The Hawai’i start to the 2023 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 67.998 per round. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +2000 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Back issues held Matsuyama back at times last year — but he looks in good shape right now after a solid tie for 21st place last week at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. This will be Matsuyama’s eighth Sony Open as he looks to defend the title he won last year in a playoff against Russell Henley. This was his first event since withdrawing from the Houston Open in early November — so this was an encouraging result after a two-month hiatus. The former Masters Champion in 2021 is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour when healthy. He ranked 6th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season despite his back issues. He ranks 5th in the field this week in course history over his last 24 rounds (requiring a minimum of 16 rounds to qualify for this list). He thrives on these shorter courses as well — Matsuyama ranks 2nd in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring on courses that require less than a driver off the tee. Matsuyama fits the profile I am looking for this week: prior experience at this event after competing at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions this previous week. Only one time in the last 18 PGA Sony Opens here at Waialae were won by a professional making their debut at this tournament. And eight of the last nine winners here competed in Maui at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions the previous week. Matsuyama is linked with Russell Henley in head-to-head tournament matchups. Henley is the only champion at this event who did so in his debut at the tournament in the last 18 years. He comes off a tie for 30th place last week at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. While Henley’s course history has lowered his odds this week, his form leaves something to be desired after missing the cut twice in his five events for the 2022-23 season — and he has missed the cut in three of his last seven tournaments going back to the 2021-22 campaign. Henley ranked 2nd on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — but he ranks just 85th in that metric for ’22-23. Furthermore, Henley is struggling with his putter by ranking 201st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Successful putting is essential this week. Since 2010, the winner of the Sony Open gained 48.6% of their shots versus the field with their putter — the highest net percentage of all events on the PGA. Take Matsuyama (7007) versus Henley in head-to-head tournament match-up props — and grab the +1.5 option if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-12-23 |
Adam Scott -118 v. Christiaan Bezuidenhout |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Hawai’i start to the 2023 campaign of the PGA Tour concludes with the Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. This is a short Par-70 course on a flat track with tree-lined fairways. The big hitters are not rewarded this week as accuracy off the tee and reaching the green in regulation is at a premium. The average score at this event last year was 67.998 per round. The 144 professionals will encounter smaller greens than in Maui last week with the stimpmeter topping at 12 feet on the Bermuda greens. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Adam Scott who is listed at +4000 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Scott fits the profile I am looking for this week: prior experience at this event after competing at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions this previous week. Only one time in the last 18 PGA Sony Opens here at Waialae were won by a professional making their debut at this tournament. And eight of the last nine winners here competed in Maui at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions the previous week. Scott has registered four top-20 finishes in his nine previous visits to the Waialae Country Club — headlined by a 2nd place result in 2008. And he comes off a 29th-place finish last week at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. Scott’s blade let him down last week — but the 42-year-old has ranked in the top 50 with his putter in five straight seasons so this is a skill that he should be able to get back in line. That was Scott’s first tournament since the President’s Cup last September — so some rust was to be expected. Scott remains a serious contender as evidenced by the return of Steve Williams to serve as his caddy once again after previously carrying his bag from 2011-2017 after his dozen years with Tiger Woods came to an end. Scott is one of the most consistent professionals on the tour who has missed only five cuts in the last three seasons. He closed out the 2021-22 campaign with top-fives in two of his final three events in the FedEx playoffs. Scott is linked with Christian Bezuidenholt in head-to-head tournament matchups. Bezuidenhout makes his debut on the PGA Tour for 2023 after closing out his 2022 season with two top-fives in his native South Africa. But Bezuidenholt did not play in Maui last week — so he does not fit the profile I am looking for at this event. He did make his debut at this tournament last year when he finished tied for 17th — but his course experience remains at a stark disadvantage versus Scott. Bezuidenhout was busy on the PGA Tour in the fall with four events — but his best finish was only 20th at the PGA Shriner’s Children Open. While he leads the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Around the Green, that is not a skill that will help him excel this week since low scores are expected — he needs to be on the green from those approach shots putting for birdies. Instead, Bezuidenhout is struggling with his irons as he ranks 167th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 88th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing 87th in Shots—Gained: Approach the Green and 99th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for the 2021-22 campaign. Bezuidenhout is also struggling with his blade as he ranks 130th for 2022-23 on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Successful putting is essential this week. Since 2010, the winner of the Sony Open gained 48.6% of their shots versus the field with their putter — the highest net percentage of all events on the PGA. Take Scott (7027) versus Bezuidenhout (7028) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-23 |
Sungjae Im -134 v. Max Homa |
|
66-70 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 32 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour returns after the December break with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawai’i. This Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw-designed course was renovated in 2019. The track is Par-73 with only three Par-3s and four Par-5s consisting of 7596 yards. The 39 professionals will encounter wide fairways and massive greens which is one of the reasons why three golfers scored -30 under par or better in last year’s event. The greens are made of Bermuda grass that measures 11 feet on the stimpmeter. Wind is usually a factor with this coastline golf course but the weather reports call for winds in the 10-15 miles per hour range this week.
Our Top Overlay Bet identifying the golfer who has the most value relative to their odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +1800 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Im looks poised to break out as a star this year. The 24-year-old is a grinder on the tour who has accumulated tons of experience already in his young career. He posted eight top-15s in his last ten events last season with three top-fives in his final eight events. In his last 50 rounds, he gained on average +1.24 shots per round versus the field. He is improving in all four areas of his game off the tee, in the approach, around the green, and with his putting. While he did not win an event last year, he did finish in 2nd place four times from mid-July on. His distance off the tee is not one of his strengths — but the elevation in Maui will help mitigate that relative disadvantage this week. Im has a well-rounded game — his ranking of 45th on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green was his worst rating. He finished 6th in Shots-Gained: Total last season. In his last 24 rounds, he leads the field in Shots-Gained: Off the Tee and in Par-5 Scoring. Im has had great success at this tournament as well. After finishing tied for 5th place in 2021, he backed that up with a tie for 8th place while averaging 67.83 per round. Im is linked in Round One head-to-head matchups with Max Homa. Homa iron-game does not set up to thrive at this tournament. He ranked 36th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season which is a solid ranking — but not in a field of 38 of the best golfers in the world. His 110th ranking last season in Greens In Regulation is a big concern since so many low scores are expected. The competition is going to be putting for birdies and eagles consistently. Homa also ranks just 35th in Birdie Percentage — and that drops to 101st in Par-4 Birdie Percentage. He ranked 35th in Par Breaking Percentage last season — and the last two winners at this tournament finished 1st or 2nd in that metric. This will be Homa's third trip to this event after finishing in 25th place in 2020 before a 15th place result in 2022. Take Im (7129) versus Homa (7130) in Round One head-to-head matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-23 |
Max Homa v. Sam Burns -115 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 55 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour returns after the December break with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawai’i. This Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw-designed course was renovated in 2019. The track is Par-73 with only three Par-3s and four Par-5s consisting of 7596 yards. The 39 professionals will encounter wide fairways and massive greens which is one of the reasons why three golfers scored -30 under par or better in last year’s event. The greens are made of Bermuda grass that measures 11 feet on the stimpmeter. Wind is usually a factor with this coastline golf course but the weather reports call for winds in the 10-15 miles per hour range this week.
Our Long Shot Bet outside the top-ten favorites is on Sam Burns who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Burns has won three events in the last 15 months. A weakness in his game is Driver Accuracy after ranking 162nd in that metric for the 2021-22 season — but the wider fairways at this course can mitigate the disadvantage this week. Burns will attack these large greens after ranking 10th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also earned 18th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — he finished in the top nine in Proximity 75-100 yards, 100-125 yards, and 125-150 yards. He finished 19th at this tournament last year — and this is an event that typically rewards past professional experience at the competition. Burns is linked with Max Homa in head-to-head tournament matchups. Homa iron-game does not set up to thrive at this tournament. He ranked 36th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last season which is a solid ranking — but not in a field of 38 of the best golfers in the world. His 110th ranking last season in Greens In Regulation is a big concern since so many low scores are expected. The competition is going to be putting for birdies and eagles consistently. Homa also ranks just 35th in Birdie Percentage — and that drops to 101st in Par-4 Birdie Percentage. He ranked 35th in Par Breaking Percentage last season — and the last two winners at this tournament finished 1st or 2nd in that metric. This will be Homa's third trip to this event after finishing in 25th place in 2020 before a 15th place result in 2022. Take Burns (7026) versus Homa (7025) in head-to-head tournament matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-05-23 |
Justin Thomas -137 v. Tony Finau |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-137 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour returns after the December break with the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the Plantation Course at Kapalua in Maui, Hawai’i. This Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw-designed course was renovated in 2019. The track is Par-73 with only three Par-3s and four Par-5s consisting of 7596 yards. The 39 professionals will encounter wide fairways and massive greens which is one of the reasons why three golfers scored -30 under par or better in last year’s event. The greens are made of Bermuda grass that measures 11 feet on the stimpmeter. Wind is usually a factor with this coastline golf course but the weather reports call for winds in the 10-15 miles per hour range this week.
Our Best Bet to win this event is Justin Thomas who is listed at +1100 odds at DraftKings. Thomas won the PGA Championship last year but still enters the new year hungry with that being his only victory on the PGA Tour in 2022. The underlying numbers were still rock solid — Thomas ranked 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 4th in Shots-Gained: Total for the 2021-22 season. After finishing 5th at the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta he excelled in the President’s Cup. While many of the pros used December as a holiday break before revving things up again in the two Hawai’i events, Thomas has been busy. He finished 5th the Hero World Challenge before teaming with beating Tiger Woods and Rory McElroy in that exhibition match and then teaming with his father to finish 3rd at the PNC Championship. He ranks 4th in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in his last 24 rounds along with 5th in Par-5 Scoring and 4th in Proximity 100-150 yards in the field in his last 24 rounds. Thomas has had great success in Hawai’i as well with three PGA Tour wins. He has won this event twice as well as winning the PGA Sony Open. He has also put up four top-six finishes which include two top-threes. Since Thomas is not playing in the PGA Sony Open in Hawai’i next week, this tournament is all or nothing for his Hawai’i plans. Thomas is linked with Tony Finau in head-to-head tournament matchups. Finau ended the 2021-22 season on a heater as he continued to tease his large fan base that he can take the next step in his career to win major tournaments. His blade remains a significant weakness in his game. He ranked 85th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season — and this is a course where successful golfers need to putt well given the large greens. Six of the last eight winners at this event finished 1st or 2nd in Birdies or Better Putting Conversion Percentage. Finau has had only moderate success here. He finished 19th in the small field last year after previous 31st and 9th place finishes. Take Thomas (7011) versus Finau (7012) in head-to-head tournament matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-25-22 |
Rory McIlroy v. Jon Rahm +1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 1 m |
Show
|
The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick Bermuda grass punishing shots that miss the fairway. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 6000 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Given the withdrawal of Will Zalatoris who is dealing with back issues, the field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 29 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that. The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring). With Scheffler enjoying a two-shot lead against Patrick Cantlay, and four-shot lead against Xander Schauffele, and at least a six-shot lead against the rest of the field, he will likely play the course more conservatively than his rivals who need to be aggressive in making up strokes given this format.
Our Best Bet to win without starting strokes this week is on Jon Rahm who has +900 odds at DraftKings. Rahm begins the event with a staggered score of -3 under par — so he needs to be aggressive to make up ground. The Spaniard demonstrated he could put up a low number on this course last year when he shot -14 under par which was tied for the best aggregate (pure) score last year — and it was tied for the second best four-round score at East Lake for the PGA Tour Championship since the event started playing here in 2004. Rahm is in good form this month with a tie for 5th place two weeks ago at the St. Jude Championship before a tied for 8th place last week at the BMW Championship. Rahm registered ten birdies last weekend without a bogey in his last two rounds. In the last three rounds last week, he gained +7.73 shots versus the field with his putter. Rahm leads all golfers in the playoffs in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and in Scrambling — and that is a great combo for this course. Rahm leads the PGA Tour for the 2021-22 season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee which is a crucial intangible for success this week. Of the last six winners aggregate (pure) winners at East Lake, three of those golfers led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee with all six finished in the top seven. The last seven aggregate winners here finished in the top seven in Ball Striking — and Rahm also leads the tour in Ball Striking this season. Rahm also ranks tied for 15th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and the last eight winners here all finished in the top-five that week in this metric with five of these winners leading the field. Furthermore, Rahm ranks 4th in the field in Par 4s: 450-500 yards which will be important this week. Rahm also leads the field over the last two years when playing on courses that incur a big penalty for missing the fairway off the tee. Rahm has been close — but just a bit off for most of the year. He looked to be establishing some momentum by winning the Mexico Open in early May. He followed that with solid efforts at the difficult courses at the Memorial and then the US Open where he finished tied for 10th and 12 places. But his overseas trip to Scotland was a disappointment where he settled for a tie for 34th place at the British Open. He had a son three weeks ago — and making a big run to challenge Scheffler, Cantlay, and Schauffele would be the icing on the cake for the season. Rahm is linked with Rory McIlroy in tournament matchup head-to-head props (without the staggered scoring). For the record, McIlroy starts the week at 4-under par. I have been less enamored with McIlroy this summer despite him breaking through with a victory at the RBC Canadian Open in June. He just always seems to find a way to sabotage himself at the bigger tournaments. He was the favorite at the British Open but could not catch up to Cam Smith (who we were on that week). He then missed the cut two weeks despite being the favorite once again at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. McIlroy did play better last week with a tie for 8th place at the BMW Championship. He is longer off the tee than Rahm — but his consistency in making the fairway is more of a concern as he ranks 133rd on the tour in Driver Accuracy. This contributes to him ranking 14th in Greens-In-Regulation this season. McIlroy also ranks 11th on the tour in Ball Striking — a good number, but not as precise as Rahm. I prefer the momentum Rahm seems to have established (and the new father bump!) on a course that should play to his net edge off-the-tee versus McIlroy. Take Rahm (7012) versus McIlroy (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take the +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-25-22 |
Sungjae Im -139 v. Matthew Fitzpatrick |
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1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 24 m |
Show
|
The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick Bermuda grass punishing shots that miss the fairway. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 6000 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Given the withdrawal of Will Zalatoris who is dealing with back issues, the field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 29 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that. The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring). With Scheffler enjoying a two-shot lead against Patrick Cantlay, and four-shot lead against Xander Schauffele, and at least a six-shot lead against the rest of the field, he will likely play the course more conservatively than his rivals who need to be aggressive in making up strokes given this format.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +2000 at DraftKings to win the tournament without the starting strokes. Im begins the event with a staggered score of -4 under par — so he has a realistic chance to compete for the Tour Championship but needs to be aggressive in putting up a big number. Im is in great form with 16 straight rounds of par or better — and he has resisted -46 under par overall in those rounds. He has four straight top-15 finishes after his tie for 15th place at BMW Championship last week. Im has the length to handle the course length this week — he ranks 9th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Of the last six winners aggregate (pure) winners at East Lake, three of those golfers led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee with all six finished in the top seven. The last seven aggregate winners here finished in the top seven in Ball Striking — and Im ranks 3rd on the tour in Ball Striking this season. Im also leads the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and the last eight winners here all finished in the top-five that week in this metric with five of these winners leading the field. Im is 5th in the field this week in Shots-Gained when playing on Donald Ross-designed courses. This will be the fourth trip to East Lake for the Tour Championship for Im — and he has finished in the top 20 in each of his visits with his best result being 11th place in 2020. Im is linked with Matthew Fitzpatrick for Tournament matchup head-to-head props (without the staggered scoring). We were on Fitzpatrick for his breakthrough victory at the US Open — but his form has not been quite as good ever since. He comes off a disappointing effort at the BMW Championship where he finished tied for 48th place. He begins this week with a staggered score of -3 under par. This is his first professional appearance at East Lake for the Tour Championship — so he is at disadvantage to Im this week. Fitzpatrick’s weakness against the best golfers in the world remains with his driver. He ranks just 48th on the tour in Ball Striking measuring Off-the-Tee and Approach. He ranks 52nd in Driver Accuracy — and he then is only 41st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Fitzpatrick is one of the very best when around the green — but he is just 87th in Greens-In-Regulation. Take Im (7023) versus Fitzpatrick (7024) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-25-22 |
Adam Scott -150 v. Tom Hoge |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-150 |
20 h 48 m |
Show
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The final leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs concludes this week at the East Lake Golf Club just east of Atlanta with the PGA Tour Championship. The home of Bobby Jones has hosted the Tour Championship here at East Lake since 2014. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7364 yards. While there are only two Par-5 holes on the course, length off the tee still gives the professionals an advantage. This is a Donald Ross-designed track with thick Bermuda grass punishing shots that miss the fairway. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that averages 6000 square feet and can reach up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter. Given the withdrawal of Will Zalatoris who is dealing with back issues, the field consists of 29 golfers who advanced from last week’s BMW Championship. The winner of the Tour Championship is determined starting with the staggered scoring system that rewards the 29 remaining pros results in the first two events in the playoffs (for example, Scottie Scheffler begins the tournament in 1st place with a starting score of -10 under par). For our purposes, we are ignoring the staggered scoring — be sure the prop bets to win the tournament include language that is “winner without starting strokes” (as is the specific terminology at DraftKings) or something equivalent to that. The value this week is to ignore the staggered scoring and focus on who will have the best “pure” score this week (without the initial staggered scoring). With Scheffler enjoying a two-shot lead against Patrick Cantlay, and four-shot lead against Xander Schauffele, and at least a six-shot lead against the rest of the field, he will likely play the course more conservatively than his rivals who need to be aggressive in making up strokes given this format.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Adam Scott who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings to win the event without the starting strokes. Scott was the only golfer last week to qualify for the Tour Championship despite starting the week outside the bubble of the final 30 golfers. He showed grit by executing a clutch sand save to par the 18th hole to stave off elimination. Scott is a veteran who has played this event at East Lake 11 times — and he begins the week in great form. He followed up a tie for 5th place at the St. Jude Championship two weeks ago with another 5th place at the BMW Championship. The +14.8 strokes he has gained against the field in the first two playoff events leads the field this week. He is tied for 4th in the field this week in Greens-In-Regulation in the playoffs — and he is 3rd in Shots-Gained: Putting in the playoffs. This is the first time since 2018 that the 42-year-old has registered two straight top-five finished. At this point of his career, Scott saves his energy for the big money events — and it is telling that he finished tied for 14th at the US Open before a tie for 15th at the British Open earlier this summer. Scott shot -6 under par last Thursday to vault into contention at the BMW Championship — and a similar score this week would probably get him into the conversation with Scheffler and the other leaders. He does begin the week with a staggered score of par — so he needs to put up a low score. This is his first time here since 2019 — but he won this event in 2006 and has five top-10s in his career here. Not only has Scott gained strokes versus the limited field of elite golfers attempting to win the Tour Championship in nine of his 11 trips here, and he has finished in the top 10 in each of his last three efforts. Scott is linked in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props with Tom Hoge (without staggered scoring). Hoge begins with a staggered score of -1 under par — but he may be destined for 29th place, either way, this week. Hoge finished tied for 48th place last week at the BMW Championship — and he peaked a month ago with a tie for 4th place at the 3M Open. But Hoge has missed the cut in the seven other events in his last nine — and he has missed the cut nine times in his last 13 tournaments since the Masters. This will be Hoge’s professional debut at East Lake for the Tour Championship — and his prospects to be competitive in his maiden effort do not look encouraging. He ranks 87th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is 107th in Greens-In-Regulation — and he is 90th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green when he gets into trouble. Hoge also ranks 125th in Shots-Gained: Putting which is not a good sign for playing on unfamiliar but lightning-fast greens. Take Scott (7051) versus Hoge (7052) in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
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08-18-22 |
Rory McIlroy v. Jon Rahm +1.5 |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 21 m |
Show
|
The second leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs continues this week with the BMW Championship at the South Course at the Wilmington Country Club in Wilmington, Delaware, about 30 miles from Philadelphia. This is a Robert Trent Jones-designed Par 71 course consisting of 7534 yards. Two of the Par 5s are at least 625 yards. The fairways are protected by trees, bunkers, and rough that can be four inches high. Water plays a role in four of the holes. The putting surface is Bentgrass on large greens averaging 8000 square feet that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The last major event at this course was the Palmer Cup in 2013 — and renovations have taken place since that tournament which leaves even that limited course history data suspect. Six of the last seven BMW Championships have seen a score of -20 or lower to win the event. While this tournament rotates every year, there are certain characteristics that the event organizers look for — and they probably want to err on the side of caution to avoid courses that will play too difficult for the remaining 68 professionals competing this week. While there is no cut on the weekend, only the top 30 finishers will advance to the PGA Tour Championship next week at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta.
Our Best Bet on the golfer to win this tournament is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings. Rahm has been close — but just a bit off for most of the year. He looked to be establishing some momentum by winning the Mexico Open in early May. He followed that with solid efforts at the difficult courses at the Memorial and then the US Open where he finished tied for 10th and 12 places. But his overseas trip to Scotland was a disappointment where he settled for a tie for 34th place at the British Open. He had a son two weeks — and without much preparation for the FedEx St. Jude Championship, he finished tied for 5th place with some very encouraging underlying numbers. He led the field in Greens-In-Regulation and Scrambling. He gained eight strokes on the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which was the third best for the tournament. After playing mostly neutral versus the field Around the Green and with his blade, he gained +2.3 strokes against the field on Sunday with his putter. All four of his rounds last week were in the 60s. Now he plays a course where length off the tee will really help — and he ranks 3rd on the tour in Driving Distance. While being inaccurate off the tee will likely get the pros in trouble this week, Rahm is reliable as he leads the PGA Tour for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is 4th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he leads the Tour in Greens-In-Regulation. When Rahm gets in trouble, it is usually when he has to rely on his short game after missing the green — he ranks 136th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. But after scrambling so well last week, he now plays at a course with a larger margin for error with the average square feet of 8000 to reach the greens. Rahm thrives on Bentgrass courses as well — he leads the field over the last two years in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bentgrass greens and he ranks 9th in the field this week in overperformance on courses with Bentgrass greens over the last two years. Rahm is linked with Rory McIlroy in tournament matchup head-to-head props. I have been less enamored with McIlroy this summer despite him breaking through with a victory at the RBC Canadian Open in June. He just always seems to find a way to sabotage himself at the bigger tournaments. He was the favorite at the British Open but could not catch up to Cam Smith (who we were on that week). He then missed the cut last week despite being the favorite once again at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He is longer off the tee than Rahm — but his accuracy is more of a concern as he ranks 124th on the tour in Driver Accuracy. This contributes to him ranking just 21st in Greens-In-Regulation this season. I am usually not scared off of golfers who missed the cut the previous week — but disappointing efforts in the playoffs worry me more since it is a cumulative event so the pros have more incentive to right-their-ships during the middle of the round. I prefer the momentum Rahm seems to have established (and the new father bump!) on a course that should play to his net edge off-the-tee versus McIlroy. Take Rahm (7001) versus McIlroy (7002) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take the +1.5 strokes if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-18-22 |
Sam Burns v. Cameron Young -137 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-137 |
16 h 46 m |
Show
|
The FedEx Playoffs begin this week with the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7238 yards. TPC Southland is considered one of the top 15 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. With plenty of bunkers, ten water hazards, and difficult rough, the 124 professionals will pay a price for missing the fairway. Historically, the pros reach the green-in-regulation 73% of the time hitting off the fairway — but that efficiency drops to 41% when missing the fairway. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. This is the first of three tournaments that will determine the FedEx champion to be crowned at the Tournament Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Cameron Young who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. The rookie settled for a tie for 31st place at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. Young gained +9 strokes versus the field in Ball-Striking but he struggled with his putter and lost six shots to the field with his short game. He is usually middle-of-the-pack with his short game so this is an area which should be better this week. The bigger greens this week should provide him a larger margin for error. Most of his competition last week had plenty of experience at TPC Southwind — but the course history edge the veterans have on the younger players will not be significant this week at the Wilmington Country Club which is not a regular stop on the tour. Young had finished in 2nd place in his previous two tournaments — he followed up his impressive 2nd place at the British Open with a tie for 2nd place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit last month. He should thrive on this track since he is so long off the tee. Young is 13th on the tour in Driving Distance which helps him rank in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His length helps him rank 6th on the tour in Birdies or Better — and that should help him put up a low score if this event plays similar to six of the previous seven BMW Championships where it took a -20 or better score to win the event. Young also ranks 4th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — so he should be able to get to the green in regulation. Young is linked with Sam Burns in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. We were on the other side of this prop last week — but that was mostly because of how I thought both would play at TPC Southwind. Burns did reward our faith as he finished tied for 20th — but after three good days, he took a step back on Sunday with a +1 over par score of 71. That was his best tournament in his last five events — and that is beginning to worry me. Burns ranks 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green which was one of the items that I found compelling with him. That will be important again this week — but length off the tee is more critical this week with the additional 300 yards on the track including those two Par 5s that are at least 625 yards. Burns accuracy off the tee is a concern as he ranks 150th in Driving Accuracy. That holds him back to ranking 73rd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Burns is 20th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, ranking behind Young in that metric. Take Young (7026) versus Burns (7025) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
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08-18-22 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Will Zalatoris -120 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
16 h 2 m |
Show
|
The second leg of the three-week FedEx playoffs continues this week with the BMW Championship at the South Course at the Wilmington Country Club in Wilmington, Delaware, about 30 miles from Philadelphia. This is a Robert Trent Jones-designed Par 71 course consisting of 7534 yards. Two of the Par 5s are at least 625 yards. The fairways are protected by trees, bunkers, and rough that can be four inches high. Water plays a role in four of the holes. The putting surface is Bentgrass on large greens averaging 8000 square feet that measure up to 12 feet on the stimpmeter. The last major event at this course was the Palmer Cup in 2013 — and renovations have taken place since that tournament which leaves even that limited course history data suspect. Six of the last seven BMW Championships have seen a score of -20 or lower to win the event. While this tournament rotates every year, there are certain characteristics that the event organizers look for — and they probably want to err on the side of caution to avoid courses that will play too difficult for the remaining 68 professionals competing this week. While there is no cut on the weekend, only the top 30 finishers will advance to the PGA Tour Championship next week at the East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +1400 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Technically, the betting value on Zalatoris is not as good as it was before he broke through to win his first PGA Tour event last week at the PGA FedEx St. Jude Championship — but he remains tied with six other golfers in the logjam of the pros priced at +1400 despite having a better resume for this event. While I might shy off a golfer who won the previous week, there is an intriguing history in the FedEx playoffs where a pro will win multiple events in the playoffs. The PGA Tour Championship rewards the FedEx standings by tiering the initial scorecard — so Zalatoris has plenty of incentive to not let up this week so he begins next week with a built-in lead. In the last 15 years, there have been 11 multiple same-season winners at one of three playoff events. A pro has won in back-to-back playoff weeks seven times in those 15 years. Privileging form makes sense for the playoffs. And I think Zalatoris took a major step forward in winning last week. It was the first full tournament since he parted ways with his long-time caddie, Ryan Goble. The difficult decision to remove his close friend from his bag was immediately validated with the victory with Joel Stock carrying his clubs. This strictly business relationship is helped by Stock being a very good golfer in his own right — so Zalatoris appreciates that perspective. The weakest part of his game has been with his blade — but Zalatoris was clutch with his putter in the final few holes on Sunday and in the playoff to win the title. His coaches have worked with his stroke and his grip to get him very steady and comfortable with his putter. What held him back was his ball-striking as he appeared nervous in trying to finally win his first professional event. I expect him to be more reliable this week off-the-tee and with his irons, while keeping his confidence with his putter. Zalatoris leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, ranks 2nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and ranks 11th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — so the skittishness he showed late on Sunday last week was an aberration. He ranks 12th in Driving Distance — so the length of this course should not be an issue for him. Low scores are likely this week — and he ranks 5th in the field in his last 24 rounds in Birdies or Better. He is also 13th in the field the last two years in Adjusted Scoring on courses with Bentgrass greens. Zalatoris is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay had his six-straight top-15 streak snapped with a tie for 57th place last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Cantlay won the FedEx playoff last year after winning the BMW Championship — but this is a much different course that plays longer and probably requires more precision with ball-striking. Cantlay ranks 48th in Driving Distance on the tour — and that keeps him just 21st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks just 55th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Cantlay’s triumph last year was significant since he so often disappoints at major championships. As a rookie, Zalatoris did not qualify for that FedEx playoff event. Take Zalatoris (7012) versus Cantlay (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-11-22 |
Cameron Young v. Sam Burns +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 17 m |
Show
|
The FedEx Playoffs begin this week with the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7238 yards. TPC Southland is considered one of the top 15 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. With plenty of bunkers, ten water hazards, and difficult rough, the 124 professionals will pay a price for missing the fairway. Historically, the pros reach the green-in-regulation 73% of the time hitting off the fairway — but that efficiency drops to 41% when missing the fairway. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. This is the first of three tournaments that will determine the FedEx champion to be crowned at the Tournament Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Sam Burns who is listed at +3500 to win this event. Burns plays in his first event since settling for a tie for 42nd place at the British Open last month — and he should feel good about his closing round of 64 in Scotland that Sunday. Burns is a two-time winner on the PGA Tour since March with victories at the Valspar Championship and the Charles Schwab Challenge. Burns thrives on shorter courses featuring blustery tracks and Bermuda greens. He ranks 7th the in field this week in performance at courses with Bermuda greens over the last two years. The small greens will not be an issue for him either after winning at the Colonial Country Club for the Charles Schwab. He is tied for third place on the tour this season with four top-three finishes. He is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour as he ranks 13th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green for 2021-22. Burns is also an excellent putter who ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Overall, Burns ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He will enter this tournament confident but with something to prove after losing in a playoff at the World Golf Championship at TPC Southland last year to settle for 2nd place. Burns is linked with Cameron Young for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The rookie followed up his 2nd place at the British Open with a 2nd place in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago. Young’s strength is his driver — he ranks 8th on the tour in Driving Distance which helps him to then rank 2nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But courses that require precision can give him trouble. He missed the cut at the US Open and then missed the cut in his next event at the Scottish Open. Young is just 100th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is 155th in Greens-In-Regulation which will likely place him at a disadvantage versus the field this week. He ranks 67th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 43rd in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he does not excel in making great shots if he gets in trouble. Young ranks 87th in Bogey Avoidance on the tour this season. And the topper for the rookie is that he has yet to play at TPC Southwind as a professional. Take Burns (7024) versus Young (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take Burns at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank. Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week-to-week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer-per-week. Over the course of the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week-to-week.
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08-11-22 |
Will Zalatoris -127 v. Cameron Young |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 33 m |
Show
|
The FedEx Playoffs begin this week with the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7238 yards. TPC Southland is considered one of the top 15 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. With plenty of bunkers, ten water hazards, and difficult rough, the 124 professionals will pay a price for missing the fairway. Historically, the pros reach the green-in-regulation 73% of the time hitting off the fairway — but that efficiency drops to 41% when missing the fairway. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. This is the first of three tournaments that will determine the FedEx champion to be crowned at the Tournament Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.
Our Top Overlay Bet with the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Zalatoris followed up a tie for 20th place in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with a tie for 21st place last week at the Wyndham Championship. But the big news coming out of the weekend is that Zalatoris fired his caddie, Ryan Goble, after the second round. He has hired Joel Stock to carry his bag for the next three weeks for the FedEx playoffs — he has previous experience with Ben Crane, Kevin Tway, and Cameron Tringale). Zalatoris said he made the move to ensure his long-term friendship with Goble after things from their professional relationship were spilling over into the personal. I like the change — especially in the short term. Zalatoris has three top-six finishes this season — including 2nd place results at the PGA Championship and the US Open. But Zalatoris has yet to break through and win his first tournament as a professional — so bringing in a new voice in a purely business relationship may be what the doctor ordered. Zalatoris is one of the very best ball-strikers on the tour. He leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and he is 2nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He finished tied for 8th place here last year with all four of his rounds under par — despite surprisingly losing strokes versus the field off-the-tee. In his previous going into this tournament, Zalatoris has lost strokes to the field off-the-tee only twice. His Achilles’ heel tends to be with his putter — but that is not as a significant concern here with the smaller greens and the consistent Bermuda grass. In the last two tournaments at TPC Southwind, both 2nd place finishers and one champion lost strokes to the field in putting. Zalatoris is linked with Cameron Young in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The rookie followed up his 2nd place at the British Open with a 2nd place in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two weeks ago. Young’s strength is his driver — he ranks 8th on the tour in Driving Distance which helps him to then rank 2nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But courses that require precision can give him trouble. He missed the cut at the US Open and then missed the cut in his next event at the Scottish Open. Young is just 100th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is 155th in Greens-In-Regulation which will likely place him at a disadvantage versus the field this week. He ranks 67th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 43rd in Shots-Gained: Putting — so he does not excel in making great shots if he gets in trouble. Young ranks 87th in Bogey Avoidance on the tour this season. And the topper for the rookie is that he has yet to play at TPC Southwind as a professional. Take Zalatoris (7019) versus Young (7020) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-11-22 |
Tony Finau v. Matthew Fitzpatrick -112 |
|
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
19 h 34 m |
Show
|
The FedEx Playoffs begin this week with the St. Jude Championship at TPC Southland in Memphis, Tennessee. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7238 yards. TPC Southland is considered one of the top 15 most difficult courses on the PGA Tour. With plenty of bunkers, ten water hazards, and difficult rough, the 124 professionals will pay a price for missing the fairway. Historically, the pros reach the green-in-regulation 73% of the time hitting off the fairway — but that efficiency drops to 41% when missing the fairway. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. This is the first of three tournaments that will determine the FedEx champion to be crowned at the Tournament Championship at East Lake in Atlanta.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Matthew Fitzpatrick who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick broke through by winning the US Open earlier this summer — and he was solid in Scotland with a tie for 6th place at the Scottish Open before a respectable tie for 21st place at the British Open. Fitzpatrick has made the cut in 12 of his last 15 events while finishing no worse than 21 place 12 times. He has nine top-10 finishes this season. Although he has added distance to his driver (which helped him win the US Open), he still prefers shorter courses where his elite accuracy thrives. He leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also has outstanding skills to get out of trouble as he ranks 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Furthermore, in his last 24 rounds, he is 3rd in the field in Bogey Avoidance. Overall, he is 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. Fitzpatrick claimed at the World Golf Championship here at TPC Southwind that the course layout suits his skillset. He has made the cut here in all three of his trips including a tied for 4th place in 2019 and 6th place in 2020. Fitzpatrick is linked with Tony Finau for Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Finau may be in the best form in his career with back-to-back victories at the 3M Open and then the Rocket Mortgage Classic before taking last week off. Now facing a vastly more competitive field for the FedEx playoffs, I expect an emotional letdown. Finau is at his best when he is not penalized for missing the fairway — he ranks 122nd in Driver Accuracy on the tour this season. Finau can also struggle with his blade as he ranks 119th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He tends to not play his best when playing on courses that feature Bermuda greens. He has not finished in the top-25 in his four appearances at TPC Southwind. His best result was a 27th place in 2019 with a 34th place last year and a 65th place in 2020. He missed the cut here in 2018. Take Fitzpatrick (7018) versus Finau (7017) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-04-22 |
Corey Conners v. Si Woo Kim +1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 20 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina this week for the Wyndham Championship. This is the last regular season event of the 2021-22 season before the FedEx playoffs start next week. This Donald Ross-designed course is a short 7131 yards that plays at a Par 70. Accuracy off the tee is required for success here with difficult rough and fairways protected by trees. Hitting the greens in regulation drops by 30% for the pros that miss the fairway. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that plays fast. Low scores are expected with five of the last six winners posting a -20 under or better score.
Our Best Bet on the golfer to win this event is on Si Woo Kim who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Kim is in good form after following up his tie for 15th place at the British Open with a tie for 14th place last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. Success at this course usually tends to require playing well close to the pin. Nineteen of the last twenty-three golfers who finished in the top-three at this tournament gained strokes versus the field in their short game as defined by Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. Kim ranks fourth in the field this week in Short Game play over the last two years. He has a terrific course history here as well. He won the tournament in 2016 led by a 10-under par 60 on Day Two. He finished in 5th place in 2019 helped by a closing round of 64. He finished tied for 3rd place in 2020 after shooting 62 on Day Three. And then Kim was one of the six golfers who made competed in the playoff last year before settling for 2nd place. He has thrived in all facets of his game on this course — he has led the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Around the Green, Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Gree, and Putting Average while ranking second in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. In these last three competitions at this course, Kim has averaged a score of 65.83 per round. Kim is linked with Corey Conners in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Conners returns to action after finished tied for 28th place at the British Open. The Canadian missed the cut at the US Open before a tie for 61st place at the Scottish Open. Connors is a good ball-striker who ranks 6th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But Conners does not excel with his short game — he ranks 133rd in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 88th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He tends to play better on more difficult courses — he ranks just 54th in Birdies or Better Percentage. He had made the cut in two of his three trips here at the Sedgefield Country Club with his best finish being a tie for 22nd place. Take Kim (7014) versus Connors (7013) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take Kim at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-04-22 |
Joohyung Kim -130 v. Lucas Glover |
|
67-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina this week for the Wyndham Championship. This is the last regular season event of the 2021-22 season before the FedEx playoffs start next week. This Donald Ross-designed course is a short 7131 yards that plays at a Par 70. Accuracy off the tee is required for success here with difficult rough and fairways protected by trees. Hitting the greens in regulation drops by 30% for the pros that miss the fairway. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that plays fast. Low scores are expected with five of the last six winners posting a -20 under or better score.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-10 favorites is on Joohyung Kim who is listed at +3000 to win this tournament at DraftKings. The rookie earned his PGA Tour card this year — but he needs to win this tournament to qualify for the FedEx playoffs. I like this motivation for him. After a tie for 26th place at PGA 3M Open two weeks ago, Kim finished tied for 7th place at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week in Detroit. He broke a course record with a bogey-free round of 63 — and he gained +3.51 shots per round versus the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Kim showed flashes of brilliance at the British Open before settling for a tie for 47th place. He has raced up to world rankings to 34th in the world. He ranks 13th in the field this week in Fairways Hit in his last 12 rounds. He also ranks 4th in the field this week in Par 4s ranging from 400 to 450 yards in his last 24 rounds. He is paired with Lucas Glover in Round one head-to-head props. Glover is not playing his best golf right now — after finishing tied for 70th at the Travelers, he has missed four straight cuts including last week in Detroit. He ranks 72nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green on the tour. His short game is a concern — he is just 175th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and 199th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is just 137th in Birdies or Better Percentage — so putting up a low number will be a challenge. He has played the weekend just seven times in his 12 previous appearances here — and he has missed the cut in his last two trips here. Furthermore, Glover has not shot in the 60s in nine straight Round Ones this season. Take Kim (7137) versus Glover (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-04-22 |
Webb Simpson v. Russell Henley -120 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 47 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina this week for the Wyndham Championship. This is the last regular season event of the 2021-22 season before the FedEx playoffs start next week. This Donald Ross-designed course is a short 7131 yards that plays at a Par 70. Accuracy off the tee is required for success here with difficult rough and fairways protected by trees. Hitting the greens in regulation drops by 30% for the pros that miss the fairway. The greens consist of Bermuda grass that plays fast. Low scores are expected with five of the last six winners posting a -20 under or better score. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Russell Henley who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Henley will have some extra to prove this week after missing a three-foot putt which would have this event for him last year. Instead, Henley would lose in a six-player playoff to Kevin Kisner despite being the clubhouse leader after Thursday, Friday, and Saturday of this event. Henley has made the cut in four of his trips to the Sedgefield Country Club including a tie for 9th place. He comes off a tie for 10th place last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. He was second in the field to the winner, Tony Finau, by gaining +11 shots against the field in Tee-to-Green. That was the first non-major tournament that he played at in the last 12 weeks with Henley appearing to be saving his energy for this final month of the season through the FedEx Championship in Atlanta. Henley’s game sets up well for this course. He is accurate off the tee ranking 22nd in Driver Accuracy — and he is 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Henley also ranks 2nd on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he leads the field in that category over his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 16th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 4th in the field in less than driver courses in the last two years — and he ranks 3rd in the field in Shots-Gained: Total on Donald Ross-designed courses in his last 36 rounds. He has hit nearly 70% of the fairways in his last 12 rounds. He is 3rd in the field over his last 50 rounds in Birdies or Better — so he can put up a big number. His preferred putting surface is Bermuda greens as well — he has gained +0.33 shots per round versus the field when putting on Bermuda greens. Henley is linked with Webb Simpson in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Simpson has a spectacular course history in this event after winning it in 2011 and nine top-10s in his 13 career starts. But Simpson is not in form — he has not finished in the top 10 in 14 straight competitions. He missed the cut at the John Deere Classic and then the British Open before shooting an opening round 66 in Detroit at the Rocket Mortgage Classic — but he then failed to shoot in the 60s for the next three rounds and settled for a tie for 69th place. When Simpson is at his best, he is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. But this season, he ranks only 51st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 69th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. His blade is failing him as well with him ranking 103rd in Shots-Gained: Putting for the 2021-22 season. Take Henley (7012) versus Simpson (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-28-22 |
Max Homa -145 v. Luke List |
|
72-76 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Detroit Country Club this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic which hosts the event for the fourth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The fairways are tree-lined with the rough getting as deep as four inches. Only one hole has water to contend with but there are 87 bunkers to contend with on this course. In the last three events in Detroit, this tournament has seen the fewest double-bodies or worse on the tour. The golfers achieved Greens-In-Regulation in 75% of the times in the last three years. The greens are a Poa annua-Bentgrass blend that are on the smallish side consisting of 5150 total square feet and averaging 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. Low scores are expected with the first three winners at the Detroit Country Club all shooting at least 23 under par before 18 under par was the score triggering a playoff last year.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Max Homa who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Homa missed the cut playing in the same pair with Tiger Woods at the British Open in his last start two weeks ago. He is forgiven for not thriving in that circus — and it was his first missed cut since January. He won the Wells Fargo Championship in May — one of his three victories on the PGA Tour since 2021 — and he has ten Top-20s this season. Homa is a big driver who can blast his way into short second shots like Bryson DeChambeau when winning this event two years ago. He averages 305.6 yards off the tee with his driver which is tied for 56th on the tour. This length has him 28th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 5th in the field in his last 24 rounds in that metric. He also ranks 9th in the field this week in the last two years when playing on courses that offer small penalties for missing the fairway. Furthermore, Homa ranks 5th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He can thrive in low-scoring events. He ranks 39th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage on the tour — and he is 3rd in the field this week in Par-5 Scoring in his last 24 rounds. Putting is important this week as well given the expectation of low scores — and he ranks 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting at 10 feet or closer. He has made the cut in both of his previous trips to Detroit for this event. Homa is linked with Luke List in Round One head-to-head props. List last played at the British Open where he missed the cut. He has missed the cut in three of his last four events and six of his last ten tournaments. In theory, List could play well here since he is long off the tee and a good ball-striker. He finished 21st at this tournament in 2020 after missing the cut in 2019. But his putting will likely hold him back — he ranks 200th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. His blade holds him back in these low-scoring events — he ranks 80th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage. Take Homa (7137) versus List (7138) on Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-22 |
Tony Finau v. Cameron Young +1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 23 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Detroit Country Club this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic which hosts the event for the fourth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The fairways are tree-lined with the rough getting as deep as four inches. Only one hole has water to contend with but there are 87 bunkers to contend with on this course. In the last three events in Detroit, this tournament has seen the fewest double-bodies or worse on the tour. The golfers reached Greens-In-Regulation 75% of the time here in the last three years. The greens are a Poa annua-Bentgrass blend that is on the smallish side consisting of 5150 total square feet and averaging 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. Low scores are expected with the first three winners at the Detroit Country Club all shooting at least 23 under par before 18 under par was the score triggering a playoff last year.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Cameron Young who is listed at +1700 odds at DraftKings. The rookie returns to action after his second-place finish at the British Open two weeks ago — and this course plays to his strengths. Young is one of the biggest drivers on the tour — he ranks 7th on the tour by averaging 317.6 yards off the tee. Bryson DeChambeau and Cameron Davis won the last two tournaments at the Detroit Country Club fueled by their driver — so he can follow that formula. This length helps him rank 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he leads the field this week in that metric in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 4th in the field when playing on courses with small penalties for missing the fairway off the tee. In his career, he averages +17.3 strokes from Driving Distance versus the field per tournament. He can put up a low number — he ranks 8th on the tour this season in Birdies or Better Percentage. He also leads the field this week in Birdies or Better Percentage over his last 24 rounds. Young is also a steady putter who ranks 4th on the tour in Putting: Par Breakers. This is the first time playing at this course — but he has six Top-Fives with four 2nd place finishes this season. He is very close to breaking for his first victory — and he will be very confident after his performance at St. Andrews. Young is linked with Tony Finau in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Finau comes off winning the PGA 3M Open at the TPC Twin Cities last week — but I expect a letdown for him this week after winning for the third time in his career. Finau benefited from the leaderboard ahead of him all struggling last Sunday with him backing into the victory. He is long off the tee — but he can struggle with his blade. He ranks 142nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He settled for 53rd place here on his lone trip in 2020. Take Young (7010) versus Finau (7009) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab Young at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-22 |
Mark Hubbard -115 v. Scott Stallings |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 27 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Detroit Country Club this week for the Rocket Mortgage Classic which hosts the event for the fourth straight year. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7370 yards. The fairways are tree-lined with the rough getting as deep as four inches. Only one hole has water to contend with but there are 87 bunkers to contend with on this course. In the last three events in Detroit, this tournament has seen the fewest double-bodies or worse on the tour. The golfers reached Greens-In-Regulation 75% of the time here in the last three years. The greens are a Poa annua-Bentgrass blend that is on the smallish side consisting of 5150 total square feet and averaging 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter. Low scores are expected with the first three winners at the Detroit Country Club all shooting at least 23 under par before 18 under par was the score triggering a playoff last year.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the the top-ten favorites is on Mark Hubbard who is listed at +5500 odds to win at DraftKings. Hubbard took last week off after finishing in 4th place at the PGA Barracuda Championship while the top-tier pros were at the British Open. He finished in 3rd place the previous week at the Barbosal Championship after a tie for 13th place at the John Deere Classic. Hubbard is a good ball-striker — he ranks 27th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He ranks 2nd in the field in that metric over his last 24 rounds. He can put up a low number here — he ranks tied for 42nd place in Birdies or Better Percentage. He is also a good putter. He is 4th in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting over his last 12 rounds. He also ranks 25th on the tour in Putting inside of 10 feet. He missed the cut here last year but was tied for 12th place in 2020. Hubbard is linked with Scott Stallings in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Stallings has not played since a tie for 4th place at the John Deere Classic to begin the month. He may be rusty with the three weeks off. He has missed the cut in two of this last four events — and he has also missed the cut in six of his last ten tournaments. Stallings is not an elite ball-striker — he ranks just 119th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 86th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He has made the cut in all three of his trips to the Detroit Country Club but has not finished better than 25th place. Take Hubbard (7039) versus Stallings (7040) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-21-22 |
JT Poston v. Cameron Davis -115 |
|
71-70 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 20 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour returns stateside for three weeks in the midwest before the FedEx playoffs begin next month. TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota hosts the PGA 3M Open for the fourth straight time in this tournament’s four-year history. This Arnold Palmer-designed course is a Par 71 consisting of 7431 yards. Thirteen of the 18 holes will feature a water hazard. The putting surface is made of soft Bentgrass which measures 12 feet on the stimptmeter. Scoring should be low this week for the 156 professionals competing with the previous three winners scoring 21-under, 19-under, and 15-under.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Cameron Davis who is listed at +2200 odds to win at DraftKings. Davis comes off a 6th place finish at the PGA Barracuda Championship last week. In his previous event at the John Deere Classic, he finished in 8th place while gaining +4.7 strokes per round versus the field Off-the-Tee and +4.4 strokes per round versus the field in Tee-to-Green. Davis ranks 71st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he is ranks 12th in the field this week in that metric in his last 24 rounds. He ranks 48th on the tour in Driving Distance which should help him tackle the 7431 yards on this course. Davis does well in events where lower scores are needed — he ranks 5th in the field this week when playing on “easier courses” over the last two years. He ranks 41st on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage — and he is 6th in the field in that metric over the last two years. Davis also has 12 Eagles this season which is the 5th most on the tour — and he ranks 7th in Eagles per hole percentage. Davis prefers the Bentgrass when it comes to putting — and he ranks 11th in the field this week when playing on courses in the midwest over the last two years. After finishing tied for 12th place at this event in 2020, he finished in 28th place last year — but he is poised to make a deep run this time around. Davis is linked with J.T. Poston in Round One head-to-head props. I like Poston — we cashed with him as our Long Shot at the John Deere Classic last month so I appreciate that his ball-striking recently has been better than his overall season numbers indicate. That win at the John Deere got him into the British Open where he missed the cut. I am not a big fan of the professionals returning stateside this week after playing in Scotland last week — and I suspect Poston had a good time as a reward for earning the opportunity to play at the legendary home of golf. I suspect it will take many of the pros a few days to get acclimated back to the US after the long travel earlier in the week — and this especially impacts the Thursday scoring. Poston did finish in 28th place at this tournament last year — but I am concerned about how he will play the course this week. He ranks only 115th on the tour in Driving Distance — and he is 123rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, Poston ranks only 92nd in Birdies or Better Percentage. Take Davis (7138) versus Poston (7137) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Throughout the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week.
|
07-21-22 |
Brendan Steele -115 v. Chez Reavie |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
15 h 20 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour returns stateside for three weeks in the midwest before the FedEx playoffs begin next month. TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota hosts the PGA 3M Open for the fourth straight time in this tournament’s four-year history. This Arnold Palmer-designed course is a Par 71 consisting of 7431 yards. Thirteen of the 18 holes will feature a water hazard. The putting surface is made of soft Bentgrass which measures 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Scoring should be low this week for the 156 professionals competing with the previous three winners scoring 21-under, 19-under, and 15-under.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Brendan Steele who is listed at +3500 to win this event. Steele has overcome a disappointing start to the season with three-straight top-25s with a tie for 25th place at the Travelers Championship along with a tie for 10th place at the Memorial and a tie for 9th place at PGA Championship. Steele also has a tie for 13th place at the Players Championship — so he has played quite well at some of the most competitive tournaments this season. The weakness in Steele’s game is his putter — but that disadvantage is mitigated somewhat this week when putting on this soft Bentgrass that is not too fast. Steele’s improved play has been helped by his improved putting. After losing -2.7 strokes to the field in Shots-Gained: Putting from January to the Players Championship in March, he has since only lost 1.6 strokes to the field per round in putting since. Steele makes up for his blade in other ways. He ranks 4th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee — and he leads the field in Driving Distance and Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks 29th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he leads the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green over his 24 rounds. He should put up a big number this week — he ranks 2nd in the field in Opportunities Gained for Birdies or Better while ranking 11th in Par-4 Scoring and 10th in Par-5 Scoring. Furthermore, he is 3rd in the field this week in scoring on courses in the midwest over the last two years. Steele is linked with Chez Reavie in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Reavie comes off winning the Barracuda Championship last week in California — so he may be due for an emotional letdown (especially after likely celebrating that triumph). Reavie tends to be feast or famine — before winning last week, he had missed the cut in two of his last four tournaments and three of his previous seven events. He has three PGA wins in his career with the last time victory being at the Travelers Championship in 2019. He then missed the cut in his next two tournaments that season. Reavie is one of the better ball-strikers on the tour — he ranks 28th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But he ranks only 180th on the tour in Driving Distance which leads to him ranking just 135th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Reavie ranks only 179th in Birdies or Better Percentage so he is not positioned to thrive when the scoring is expected to be low. Take Steele (7025) versus Reavie (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Throughout the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week.
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07-21-22 |
Brendon Todd v. Maverick McNealy -120 |
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70-71 |
Loss |
-120 |
16 h 47 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour returns stateside for three weeks in the midwest before the FedEx playoffs begin next month. TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota hosts the PGA 3M Open for the fourth straight time in this tournament’s four-year history. This Arnold Palmer-designed course is a Par 71 consisting of 7431 yards. Thirteen of the 18 holes will feature a water hazard. The putting surface is made of soft Bentgrass which measures 12 feet on the stimptmeter. Scoring should be low this week for the 156 professionals competing with the previous three winners scoring 21-under, 19-under, and 15-under.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Maverick McNealy who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings to lift the first place trophy. McNealy is in great form right now. After finishing tied for 8th place at the John Deere Classic, he traveled across the pond to finish tied for 16th place in a stacked field at the Scottish Open before returning back to the US to finish tied for 9th place at Barracuda Championship in California. McNealy thrives on these easier courses where low scores are needed to compete. He is 12th on the PGA Tour for the 2021-22 season in Birdies or Better Percentage. He is also 8th in the field this week when playing on “easy courses” over the last two years. Given the 7431 yards to contend with this week, big hitters will have an edge — and McNealy ranks 50th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee which is a metric that incorporated accuracy with the driver that is important as well this week given all the water. McNealy ranks tied for 35th place on the tour in Par-4 Scoring on distances from 450 to 500 yards. McNealy also likes playing the courses in the midwest. He ranks 13th in the field when playing in the midwest over the last two years. In his first trip to this tournament last year, he was in second place going into Sunday before shooting a disappointing 73 in round four to settle for a tie for 16th place. He should come into this year’s event with something to prove — and plenty of confidence. McNealy is linked with Brendan Todd for Round One head-to-head props. My initial concern regarding Todd regards to form and rust — especially for a Round One prop as opposed to McNealy who has been playing week-to-week this month. Todd has not played since finished tied for 43rd place at the John Deere Classic to begin the month. His prior tournament was at the Travelers Championship where he missed the cut — his second missed cut in his last six events. Todd’s skill set is not a great fit for the TPC Twin Cities. He ranks 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but that advantage is neutralized this week with the soft putting conditions which will help many of the pros putt well. And while Todd is very accurate off the tee, he ranks just 204th in Driving Distance which translates into ranking 176th this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Furthermore, Todd’s ball-striking is not elite — he ranks 130th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. This skill set translates into Todd ranking 129th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage — so he may just not be poised to keep up with the low scoring this week (and Thursday). In his previous appearance at this tournament, Todd missed the cut. Take McNealy (7116) versus Todd (7115) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
Money Management advice: I like to consider the three "to win" prop bets as lottery tickets. If your typical bet is X, then I am fine if you wager 10-30% of X into each golfer to win - -just be consistent with that method from week to week. I am also fine if you are more ambitious with these bets and wager up to X on each golfer per week. Throughout the season, we have been profitable -- so I preach consistency with the investments each week. I am also OK with a slow uptick in the initial investment if the bankroll warrants -- maybe go from 20% of X to 25%. For the head-to-head prop bets, treat them as either 10* or 20* bets (if you choose to invest in them) -- and stay consistent from week to week.
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07-14-22 |
Jordan Spieth v. Jon Rahm -135 |
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1-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
33 h 22 m |
Show
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The last major championship this year takes place at the 150th British Open which takes place this year at the Home of Golf at St. Andrew’s Golf Course. The Old Course at St. Andrew’s consists of 7297 yards of links-style golf with only two Par 3s and two Par 5 holes. With the remaining 14 Par 4s, seven of these holds are under 400 yards so the short irons will play a big role in the approach shots. The fairways are wide and somewhat forgiving — but the 156 professionals want to avoid the 110 bunkers which are very difficult to navigate successfully. The greens consist of half Fescue grass and half a Bentgrass-Poa Annua blend that plays slower than the three major championships in the US. The greens are larger than average — and seven of the greens are shared double-greens with other holes.
Our Best Bet to win the British Open is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +1600 odds at DraftKings. Those are the best odds for Rahm since before he won last year’s US Open — and I think he is flying way under the radar this week. Rahm is lurking — he was in third place at the US Open last month just one shot behind Matthew Fitzpatrick (our Top Overlay Bet winner) and Will Zalatoris before a disappointing Sunday round of +4 had him settle for 12th place. Interestingly since 2017, 20 of the last 22 major championship winners had either finished in the top-8 or were in the top-4 going into the final round in one of the three previous major championship events — and Rahm checks that box. Eight of the last ten winners of the British Open had won an event earlier in the year — and Rahm also checks that box with his victory in May at the Mexico Open. Length off the tee can overwhelm some of the trouble this course presents by offering the pro shorter approach shots — Tiger Woods used his length off the tee to win two British Opens at St. Andrew’s. Rahm is 3rd on the PGA Tour in Driving Distance which helps him then lead the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Rahm also ranks 3rd on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation — and he is 6th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Additionally, Rahm is 10th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring — so he has the toolset to put up a big number this week. Rahm thrives on links courses as he ranks 7th in the field in shots gained on links courses in the last two years. After finishing tied for 2019 at the British Open in 2019, he finished tied for 3rd at St. George’s at last year’s British Open (after the 2020 tournament was canceled because of COVID. Remember, Rahm broke through to win his first major championship last year at the US Open — and he began 2022 as the number one player in the world before falling to third at this point with the emergence of Scottie Scheffler and the consistent play of Rory McIlroy. He played last week at the Scottish Open where he finished in 55th place — but he was probably more concerned with getting comfortable again with links courses while conserving his energy for this week. Winning this tournament re-establishes Rahm as the best player in the world and ensures a successful season. Rahm is linked with Jordan Spieth for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Spieth has the reputation of being perhaps the best links course golfer in the world. He is a previous British Open champion with four top-10 finishes. But Spieth only ranks one spot ahead of Rahm as 6th in the field in shots-gained on links courses in the last two years. Spieth has been a tease this year — and I took the bait at the PGA Championship with great ball-striking. He is simply a mess with his putter right now which has cost him (and me backing him at the Bryon Nelson Charles Schwab Challenge) first-place trophies. He ranks 145th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and I need to say four consistent rounds of putting from him before I back him again (all it takes is a few three-putts — or a four-putt — to bury his round). He missed the cut at the Travelers Championship in this last event in the US before a 10th place finish last week at the Scottish Open (when half the field is using that tournament as simply prep work). Spieth’s results at three previous majors this year are discouraging: he missed the cut at the Masters; tied for 34th place at PGA Championship; tied for 37th place at the US Open — despite being one of the top-10 favorites in each of those events. Fool’s Gold. And the deeper metrics are all middling numbers. His only top-20 number for the Shots-Gained skill-set categories is his rank of 20th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks 41st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is 34th in Driving Distance and 32nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranks 106th in Greens-In-Regulation. When those analytics combine with his subpar putting, I am in complete fade-mode with Spieth. Take Rahm (7011) versus Speith (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-22 |
Tyrrell Hatton v. Tommy Fleetwood -120 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
25 h 18 m |
Show
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The last major championship this year takes place at the 150th British Open which takes place this year at the Home of Golf at St. Andrew’s Golf Course. The Old Course at St. Andrew’s consists of 7297 yards of links-style golf with only two Par 3s and two Par 5 holes. With the remaining 14 Par 4s, seven of these holds are under 400 yards so the short irons will play a big role in the approach shots. The fairways are wide and somewhat forgiving — but the 156 professionals want to avoid the 110 bunkers which are very difficult to navigate successfully. The greens consist of half Fescue grass and half a Bentgrass-Poa Annua blend that plays slower than the three major championships in the US. The greens are larger than average — and seven of the greens are shared double-greens with other holes.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites to win the British Open is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +3500 at DraftKings. After slumping last year, Fleetwood now has fvie top-15 finishes since the Masters in April, including a 5th place at the PGA Championship. He has finished in the top-40 in 10 of his last 15 PGA Tour events — and he comes off a nice tie for 4th place last week at the Scottish Open. Links courses are the Englishman’s bread-and-butter — he leads the field in shots-gained per round on links courses in the last two years. He also is 8th in the field with most rounds played on links courses over the last two years so he will be comfortable. Furthermore, Fleetwood is quite familiar with the St. Andrew’s golf course which hosts the Dunhill Links Championship on an annual basis — and that tournament uses the Old Course. Fleetwood has nine top-25s and six top-10s at that event — and nine of his last ten rounds here have been under 70. Fleetwood has five victories on the DP Tour — and he finished tied for 10th place at the European Open in April. Fleetwood ranks 10th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green which should help him get out of trouble — and he ranks 5th in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Putting. Fleetwood finished 2nd in the 2019 British Open. He is linked with Tyrrell Hatton for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Hatton comes off a tie for 24th place last week at the Scottish Open — but that was the best result in his last three tournaments after missing the cut at the RBC Canadian Open before settling for a tie for 56th place at the US Open. Hatton’s best part of his game is his blade — he ranks 6th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. But ball-striking can be an issue for Hatton. He only ranks 112th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green on the tour and 83rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Hatton also ranks only 85th in Driving Distance — so he does not do himself any favors off-the-tee. Even worse, he ranks 181st in Driver Accuracy. And with 14 of the 18 holes being Par-4s, Hatton ranks just 159th on the tour in Par-4 Scoring this season. He does have two top-6 finishes in his five British Opens -- but it has been hit-or-miss as he has missed the cut in two of those competitions. Take Fleetwood (7040) versus Hatton (7039) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-22 |
Cameron Smith +1.5 v. Patrick Cantlay |
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1-0 |
Win
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100 |
25 h 27 m |
Show
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The last major championship this year takes place at the 150th British Open which takes place this year at the Home of Golf at St. Andrew’s Golf Course. The Old Course at St. Andrew’s consists of 7297 yards of links-style golf with only two Par 3s and two Par 5 holes. With the remaining 14 Par 4s, seven of these holds are under 400 yards so the short irons will play a big role in the approach shots. The fairways are wide and somewhat forgiving — but the 156 professionals want to avoid the 110 bunkers which are very difficult to navigate successfully. The greens consist of half Fescue grass and half a Bentgrass-Poa Annua blend that plays slower than the three major championships in the US. The greens are larger than average — and seven of the greens are shared double-greens with other holes.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Cameron Smith who is listed at +2500 to win the British Open at DraftKings. Smith missed the cut at the US Open in his most recent tournament before last week — but he rebounded last week in the first leg of this European swing with a tie for 10th place at the Scottish Open. What was most encouraging about that result was that he putted very well after struggling with his blade at previous events. Smith is one of the best putters in the world — he currently ranks 16th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting even after his disappointments relative to his standards. He ranked 10th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — and he if has found his stroke again, then watch out. He leads the PGA Tour in Birdie Average — and he leads the field in Birdies or Better in his last 24 rounds. He also leads the PGA Tour in Putts-per-Greens In Regulation and Converting Greens-In-Regulation into Par-Breakers. In theory, St. Andrew’s plays right into Smith’s strengths. Accuracy off the tee can be an issue for the Aussie — and these fairways are forgiving. Smith is then typically amazing in his approach shots and around the green before using his putter as a scoring weapon. Smith ranks 5th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is also 5th in that metric in the field over his last 24 rounds. Smith also ranks a solid 32nd on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Smith also fits several trends that have defined who will next lift the Claret Jug in victory. Since 2017, 20 of the last 22 major championship winners had either finished in the top-8 or were in the top-4 going into the final round in one of the three previous major championship events — and Smith checks that box with his tie for 3rd place at the Masters in April. Nine of the last ten winners of the British Open have previously finished in the top-3 at Augusta National — so let’s check that box. And eight of the last ten winners of the British Open had won an event earlier in the year — and Smith checks that box with his victories in January at the Sentry Tournament of Champions January and then in March at the Players Championship in March — considered the “fifth” major on the PGA Tour. The Australian has seven victories on the PGA and DP Tour. Smith is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay may now hold the current title of the best golfer in the world who has yet to win a major championship — and I find fading him to be more profitable than taking the chance that he will finally get over the hump. There is a mountain of ripped-up tickets from bettors thinking a pro is finally “due” to win their first major (I fade Tony Finau as well). Cantlay finished tied for 14th place at the US Open last month — but that was the 20th time in his 22 major championships where he failed to finish in the top-10. Cantlay also tends to struggle on links courses. He did finish tied for 4th place last week at the Scottish Open while many of the pros were using that event as a warmup for this week — so I take that with a grain of salt. Cantlay missed the cut at last year’s British Open after settling for a tie for 41st place at the British Open in 2019 in its previous event (after the 2020 tournament got canceled because of COVID). Cantlay’s skillset is not magnified on links courses. He ranks 55th on the tour in Driving Distance this season — so he will not drive his way into advantageous situations. Even more troubling, Cantlay only ranks 72nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. It is simply too unpredictable to rely on your play around the green and your blade to gain strokes against the best players in the world when your first two shots are not producing relative edges. And Cantlay is 63rd in Greens-In-Regulation this season. Cantlay leads the tour in Par-5 Scoring — but this course only has two Par-5 holes to deploy those skills. Play Smith (7027) versus Cantlay (7028) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take Smith at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-22 |
Tommy Fleetwood -128 v. Justin Rose |
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1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 15 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to Europe for the next two weeks with co-sanctioned events with the DP Tour with the Scottish Open this week before the final major of the year with the British Open at St. Andrew’s next week. The desire to get acclimated to traveling across the pond and getting comfortable with links golf has persuaded 14 of the top 15 players in the world to be competing at the Renaissance Country Club this week which is just east of Edinburgh in Scotland. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of 7293 yards with five Par 3 holes. The putting surface is fescue grass which is slower than the breeds that typically exist in the US. This is the fourth time that the Renaissance Country Club hosts the Scottish Open.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +4500 at DraftKings. Fleetwood last played at the Travelers Championship where he finished tied for 46th place. After slumping last year, Fleetwood does have four top-15 finishes since the Masters including a 5th place at the PGA Championship. He has finished in the top-40 in nine of his last 14 PGA Tour events — but he prefers playing on links courses like the Renaissance Club. Fleetwood ranks 2nd in the field in shots-gained when playing on links courses over the last two years. He has five victories on the DP Tour — and he finished tied for 10th place at the European Open in April. Fleetwood ranks 9th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green which should help him get out of trouble — and the five Par 3s play to his strength as he ranks 5th on the tour in Par 3 Scoring. Fleetwood is familiar with this course with a tie for 26th place last year after losing in a playoff in 2020. Fleetwood is linked with Justin Rose in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Rose is similar to Fleetwood in that he is a veteran with accolades who is trying to break out of a recent slump. He finished tied for 37th place at the US Open in his last tournament. But Rose’s ball-striking has not completely returned. He ranks just 85th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 119th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green which puts him at a likely significant disadvantage when compared to Fleetwood. Rose thrives with his putter as he ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but I do not think he will enjoy as big of an edge this week with his blade putting on the slower fescue greens. Play Fleetwood (7037) versus Rose (7038) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-22 |
Cameron Smith +1.5 v. Sam Burns |
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1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 46 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to Europe for the next two weeks with co-sanctioned events with the DP Tour with the Scottish Open this week before the final major of the year with the British Open at St. Andrew’s next week. The desire to get acclimated to traveling across the pond and getting comfortable with links golf has persuaded 14 of the top 15 players in the world to be competing at the Renaissance Country Club this week which is just east of Edinburgh in Scotland. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of 7293 yards with five Par 3 holes. The putting surface is fescue grass which is slower than the breeds that typically exist in the US. This is the fourth time that the Renaissance Country Club hosts the Scottish Open.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Cameron Smith who is listed at +2200 at DraftKings. Smith missed the cut at the US Open in his last tournament — and that should have him feisty this week beginning this European swing. Smith won the Players Championship in March — considered the “fifth” major on the PGA Tour — before later setting for a tie for 3rd place at the Masters. The Australian has seven victories on the PGA and DP Tour. Links golf fits his game since he is not the most accurate off the tee — he ranks 148th on the PGA Tour in Driver Accuracy. But Smith is spectacular with his irons which is the best skill to have on this course. He is 2nd on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is 3rd in the field over his last 24 rounds in that metric. The pros are going to put up low numbers on this course — and Smith is very comfortable in birdie-tests. He leads the PGA Tour in Birdie Average — and he leads the field in Birdies or Better in his last 24 rounds. He also leads the PGA Tour in Putts-per-Greens In Regulation and Converting Greens-In-Regulation into Par-Breakers. Smith is linked with Sam Burns for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Burns won for the second time this season with his victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He followed that up with a disappointing tie for 27th place at the US Open. He then missed the cut at the Travelers Championship (unfortunately, my final decision was preferring him as our Top Overlay pick over Xander Schauffele for that event — or we could be on a three-week 1st Place winning streak). I am not acting out my revenge on Burns for that result — I just prefer Smith’s experience on links courses. Burns did finish in a tie for 18th place here last year — but I still worry about his putter on the fescue. Burns thrives with his blade — he ranks 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting but most of those results are on Bermuda or poa annua greens. He may lose some of his edge against the field on the slower greens. The emphasis on Par 3s does not play into Burns’ strengths either. While Burns ranks 12th on the PGA Tour in Par 5 Scoring and 9th in Par 4 Scoring, he drops to 58th in Par 3 Scoring. Take Smith (7017) versus Burns (7018) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take this at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-22 |
Jordan Spieth v. Hideki Matsuyama -119 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to Europe for the next two weeks with co-sanctioned events with the DP Tour with the Scottish Open this week before the final major of the year with the British Open at St. Andrew’s next week. The desire to get acclimated to traveling across the pond and getting comfortable with links golf has persuaded 14 of the top 15 players in the world to be competing at the Renaissance Country Club this week which is just east of Edinburgh in Scotland. This is a Par 71 tournament consisting of 7293 yards with five Par 3 holes. The putting surface is fescue grass which is slower than the breeds that typically exist in the US. This is the fourth time that the Renaissance Country Club hosts the Scottish Open.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings. This is his first event since finishing in 4th place at the US Open. Injuries have held Matsuyama back at bit this year — but he did finish tied for 14th at the Masters as well as in 3rd place at the AT&T Byron Nelson — so he has played well lately. I worry that some of the top pros this week will be using these rounds as preparation for British Open next week — but Matsuyama may have more incentive to make a statement this week to build up his confidence and momentum for next week after not meeting expectations so far his high expectations this season. The weakest part of his game is his blade — he ranks 126th in Shots-Gained: Putting on the PGA Tour — so the slower fescue greens should help neutralize that vulnerability against his top rivals. Matsuyama is 3rd on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 10th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Matsuyama’s ball-striking helps him deal with weather conditions which is a factor with this tournament being played on the coastline. He ranks 5th in the field over the last two years when playing in winds of 14 or more miles-per-hour — and he is 10th in his performance in these windy conditions relative to his baseline numbers. Matsuyama is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head propositions. Spieth settled for a tie for 37th place at the US Open before missing the cut at the Travelers Championship in his last most recent tournament. Spieth is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour — but he ranks below Matsuyama. Spieth is 36th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Spieth ranks 32nd in Birdies Percentage — so he may not be in the best position to outscore Matsuyama if this becomes a scoring-fest. Spieth was at one time one of the best putters on the tour — but he ranks 144th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. The five Par 3s do not help his game this week where he ranks 171st on tour in Par 3 Scoring as opposed to his ranking of 13th in Par 5 Scoring and 15th in Par 4 Scoring. Take Matsuyama (7024) versus Spieth (7023) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-22 |
Lucas Glover -125 v. Dylan Frittelli |
|
74-66 |
Loss |
-125 |
17 h 17 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities this week in Slovis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. This is a Par 71 event consisting of 7289 yards. The greens are Bentgrass that will register a standard 12 feet on the stimptmeter. With forgiving fairways and some of the least-challenging putting conditions on the tour, this stop is usually one of the lowest-scoring tournaments on the PGA Tour. Last year, the professionals averaged almost 13 Greens-In-Regulation per round. The average score per round was 69.513.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Lucas Glover who is lasted at +4000 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Glover has made the cut in his last four events including the Travelers Championship last week — and he fits the profile of the veteran golfer who can step up to win this event with most of the top players traveling to Europe for the Scottish Open and then the British Open next month. Glover ranks 9th on the tour in Ball Striking. He also ranks 2nd in the field this week on Proximity from 125 to 150 feet which will play an important role this week on this shorter course. Glover also ranks 9th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total when playing on courses in the Midwest since the start of 2020. He won this tournament last year and has a tie for 10th place in 2019. Glover is linked with Dylan Frittelli in Round One head-to-head props. Frittelli won this event in 2019 before missing the cut last year. Since a tie for 8th place at the Valero Open in early April, he has not finished better than a tie for 35th place — and he missed the cut last week at the Travelers Championship. Despite his past championship here, his ball-striking is not in good enough form to post the big number that it will likely take to contend this weekend. Frittelli ranks 168th in Ball Striking. He is 84th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 120th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks 121st this season in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Glover (7141) versus Frittelli (7142) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-22 |
Denny McCarthy +1.5 v. Charles Howell III |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 39 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities this week in Slovis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. This is a Par 71 event consisting of 7289 yards. The greens are Bentgrass that will register a standard 12 feet on the stimptmeter. With forgiving fairways and some of the least-challenging putting conditions on the tour, this stop is usually one of the lowest-scoring tournaments on the PGA Tour. Last year, the professionals averaged almost 13 Greens-In-Regulation per round. The average score per round was 69.513.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Denny McCarthy who is listed at +2200 at DraftKings. McCarthy had been playing at an elite level with a tie for fifth place at the Memorial earlier this month before a 7th place finish at the US Open before missing the cut last week at the Travelers Championship. I like backing golfers coming off a missed cut because that usually means they have a chip on their shoulder the next time out while benefiting from getting the weekend off. McCarthy is one of the best putters on the tour — he ranks 5th on the PG Tour for the 2021-22 season in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is 8th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting when working on Bentgrass greens in the last two years. McCarthy can struggle with his iron play which can challenge the magic he can make with his putter — but he has been more consistent with his ball-striking this season. He had made 11 straight cuts in stroke play (outside a missed cut in the two-player team event in New Orleans in the spring) before last week. McCarthy is linked with Charles Howell III for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Howell comes off a tie for 35th place at the Travelers Championship last week — but he is not in great form. He has only finished in the top 15 three times in his last 42 tournaments. He has lost accuracy off the tee — he ranks 77th in Driver Accuracy this season. He is also losing strokes to the competition in the approach — he is 119th this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Furthermore, Howell’s putting has regressed with him ranking 159th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take McCarthy (7005) versus Howell III (7006) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and grab it at +1.5 shots if available and not priced higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-30-22 |
John Huh v. JT Poston -118 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
11 h 6 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Quad Cities this week in Slovis, Illinois for the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. This is a Par 71 event consisting of 7289 yards. The greens are Bentgrass that will register a standard 12 feet on the stimptmeter. With forgiving fairways and some of the least-challenging putting conditions on the tour, this stop is usually one of the lowest-scoring tournaments on the PGA Tour. Last year, the professionals averaged almost 13 Greens-In-Regulation per round. The average score per round was 69.513.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on J.T. Poston who is listed at +4500 odds at DraftKings to win this tournament. Poston is playing some of the best golf of his career right now after a tie for 2nd place last week at the Travelers Championship. He has three top-10 finishes in his last eight tournaments. Over the last three months, he ranks 9th on the tour in Ball-Striking and 5th in Birdies or Better Percentage. He has gained at least +7.9 Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green against the field in three straight events. Last week, he gained +9.1 stroked from the field in Tee-to-Green — and he was 2nd in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Poston is linked with John Huh in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Huh finished in 7th place at this tournament last year — but he has missed the cut three times in his seven trips to the Quad Cities. He comes into this event with three straight top-25s after a tie for 13th place at the Travelers Championship. But Huh can be inconsistent as he missed the cut in the two events before this recent run. He ranks 83rd on the tour this season on Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is 113th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Poston (7020) versus Huh (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us —Frank.
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06-23-22 |
Sam Burns -115 v. Keegan Bradley |
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70-69 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 45 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to TPR River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut with the Traveler’s Championship. This is a Par-70 event consisting of 6841 yards, making it the second shortest course on the PGA Tour. There are eight Par-4s with a distance of 400 to 450 yards. This is a Pete Dye-designed track. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with a Poa annua mix. This event has 156 players competing. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sam Burns who is priced at +1600 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Burns comes off a tie for 27th place last week at the US Open. He finished tied for fourth place the previous week at the RBC Canadian Open — and he won the Charles Schwab Challenge last month. He is fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is second in the field in his last 12 rounds in that metric. Burns also ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Total on the tour this season. He thrives on shorter courses and ranks second in the field in the last two seasons on shorter courses. He also ranks second in the field in his last 12 rounds in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has made the cut all three times playing at this event including a tie for 13th place last year. Burns is linked with Keegan Bradley in Round One head-to-head props. Bradley comes off a tie for 7th place at US Open in an emotional event for the New Englander. He may be primed for an emotional letdown — especially after settling for a tie for 37th place at the Memorial and a tie for 48th place at the PGA Championship in his two previous events. Bradley is a good ball-striker — but he only ranks 38th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Bradley has finished in the top 18 three times in his 11 trips here — including a second-place finish in 2019. But Bradley has missed the cut at this tournament in 2020 and 2021. Take Burns (7137) versus Bradley (7138) in Round One head-to-head matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-22 |
Rory McIlroy v. Patrick Cantlay +1.5 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to TPR River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut with the Traveler’s Championship. This is a Par-70 event consisting of 6841 yards, making it the second shortest course on the PGA Tour. There are eight Par-4s with a distance of 400 to 450 yards. This is a Pete Dye-designed track. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with a Poa annua mix. This event has 156 players competing.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Patrick Cantlay who is listed at +1400 at DraftKings to win this event. Cantlay followed up his third-place finish at the Memorial with a tie for 14th place at the US Open last week where he improved his score in each round of the event. Cantlay has yet to break through at one of the four major tournaments — but he has a sensational record at the non-majors including winning the Zurich Classic team event in New Orleans in April. He has finished in the top 15 in four straight events — and he has finished in the top 14 in ten of his last 14 tournaments with two wins, two second-place finishes, a third place, and two fourth-place results. He thrives on shorter tracks like this — and he leads the field in his last 24 rounds when playing on Pat Dye-designed courses (like the Zurich Classic and the RBC Heritage where he finished in second place). He leads the field over the last two seasons on short courses. He has four top-15 finishes in his four trips to TPC River Highlands. Cantlay is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McIlroy was many bettor's favorite last week at the US Open — but he settled for a tie for fifth place. McIlroy leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — but he is only 197th on the tour on Par-4s with a 400 to a 450-yard distance which is eight holes on this track. Cantlay ranks tied for 22nd on Par-4s distanced at 400-450 yards. McIlroy has finished in the top 20 in all three of his trips here — but he has yet to finish in the top 10. Take Cantlay (7006) versus McIlroy (7005) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-23-22 |
Aaron Wise v. Davis Riley +1.5 |
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0-1 |
Win
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100 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to TPR River Highlands in Cromwell, Connecticut with the Traveler’s Championship. This is a Par-70 event consisting of 6841 yards, making it the second shortest course on the PGA Tour. There are eight Par-4s with a distance of 400 to 450 yards. This is a Pete Dye-designed track. The putting surface consists of Bentgrass with a Poa annua mix. This event has 156 players competing.
Our Long Shot Bet for a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Davis Riley who is listed at +4000 at DraftKings. Riley comes off a tied for 31st at the US Open last week which was actually his worst result in his last seven tournaments. Riley has four top-10s with top-five finishes at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the Mexico Open, and the Zurich Challenge team event in New Orleans since April. Riley thrives on courses where birdies will be readily available. The up-and-coming 25-year-old leads the field in his 12 events in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Last year, 8% of the shots missed off the fairway resulted in a penalty for the professionals. Riley is 15th in the field over the last two seasons when playing on courses that see a big penalty for missing the fairway — and he leads the field in the last two seasons in overperformances on these types of courses relative to his baseline results. Riley is linked in Tournament Matchup head-to-head results with Aaron Wise. Wise has had four top-25 efforts since April including a tie for 27th place at the US Open last week. But scoring on Par-4 holes distanced between 400 to 450 yards will be important this week with eight of those holes on this course — and Wise only ranks tied for 83rd on the PGA Tour for 2021-22 on those holes this season. Putting will also play a big role this week on this short course — and Wise ranks 109th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Wise finished 66th here last year after placing 46th on his first trip here in 2020. Take Riley (7032) versus Wise (7031) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-22 |
Corey Conners v. Shane Lowry -115 |
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71-72 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 12 m |
Show
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The third major championship takes place this week with the 122nd US Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts just outside Boston. This event last hosted a US Open in 1988 — and the last major event it hosted was the US Amateur Open in 2013. This is a Par 70 event consisting of 7264 yards with a Poa-annua mix with Bentgrass on the greens. As with all US Opens, the rough will be thick — and the fairways are narrow which will represent a significant challenge to the 156 professionals given the small greens that average just 4400 square feet.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +2500 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Lowry has made the cut in six of his seven US Opens including a 2nd place finish in 2017. The 2019 British Open winner finished tied for third at the Masters earlier this year before a tie for 23rd place at the PGA Championship. He comes off a tie for 10th place last week at the RBC Canadian Open. Lowry thrives on difficult courses — he ranks fourth in the field over his last 24 rounds on difficult courses where the average score is +0.75 or worse relative to par. He does many things well that can get him out of trouble. Lowry ranks 2nd on the tour in Scrambling and leads the tour in Proximity to the hole. He is second in the field in the last 24 rounds in Good Drives Gained. These characteristics help Lowry rank 3rd in Bogey Avoidance on the tour — and he is also 5th Adjusted Scoring. Lowry is linked with Corey Conners in Round One head-to-head props. Conners comes off a 6th place at the RBC Canadian Open which was an important tournament for the native Canadian. While Conners was never in serious contention, he finished strong with a Sunday round of 62 — so he may be due for a letdown for the opening round on Thursday. Conners did finish in the semifinals on this course at the US Amateur Open in 2013 — but the course has been refurbished since with the trees that were protecting the fairways now removed. Conners did finish 6th at the Masters — but he missed the cut at the PGA Championship. He has not made a cut at a US Open either. The demands that the US Open always puts on the pros with the short game is why Conners tends to struggle. He ranks 127th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he ranks 75th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Lowry (7258) versus Conners (7257) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-22 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1.5 v. Will Zalatoris |
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1-0 |
Win
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100 |
7 h 4 m |
Show
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The third major championship takes place this week with the 122nd US Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts just outside Boston. This event last hosted a US Open in 1988 — and the last major event it hosted was the US Amateur Open in 2013. This is a Par 70 event consisting of 7264 yards with a Poa-annua mix with Bentgrass on the greens. As with all US Opens, the rough will be thick — and the fairways are narrow which will represent a significant challenge to the 156 professionals given the small greens that average just 4400 square feet.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Matthew Fitzpatrick who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Fitzpatrick won the US Amateur Open on this course in 2013 — and while that does not mean everything, it sure doesn’t hurt. Fitzpatrick comes off a tie for 10th place last week at the RBC Canadian Open which was the third top-10 in his last four events — and he has nine top-20s this season. He finished tied for 5th place at the PGA Championship last month. Fitzpatrick is well-rounded in all aspects of his game. He ranks 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee as he benefits from the added length he has found with his driver. He is fourth in the field this week in his last 24 rounds in Good Drives Gained. He ranks 5th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he has gained shots versus the field in 11 straight tournaments in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He also ranks 18th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green which will be important this week given the small greens. These skills help Fitzpatrick 5th in the field this week in his last 24 rounds in Greens In Regulation. And he ranks 22nd in Shots-Gained: Putting on the tour this year. Overall, Fitzpatrick ranks 8th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance — and he is 2nd in Shots-Gained: Total. Furthermore, he ranks 7th in the field this week when playing on difficult courses where the average score is +0.75 or worse relative to par. Fitzpatrick is linked with Will Zalatoris in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. I love Zalatoris — and we almost cashed a nice ticket with him at the PGA Championship. I don’t like the way he played down the stretch on the Sunday of that event with Justin Thomas overtaking him. Nerves appeared to be an issue — and he may need more experience before he gains the confidence to win big tournaments on Sunday. Granted, his four top-10s with two-second places in his previous ten majors are impressive — but he is consistently falling short. I love Zalatoris when his odds are at +3000 or better — but now he is being bet up into the +2500 territory, which changes the dynamic a bit. Since the disappointment in the playoff at the PGA Championship, he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He did respond with a tie for 5th place at the Memorial two weeks ago — but he did describe this course at Brookline as the most difficult course he has ever played. Zalatoris is elite with his ball-striking — but so is Fitzpatrick. Zalatoris's weakness remains his short game — and that is what this course is going to require for success. Zalatoris ranks 81st on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and he is 169th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Fitzpatrick (7025) versus Zalatoris (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take Fitzpatrick +1.5 strokes if you can that option priced no higher than -150). Best of luck to us — Frank.
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06-16-22 |
Collin Morikawa v. Jon Rahm -130 |
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69-69 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 19 m |
Show
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The third major championship takes place this week with the 122nd US Open at The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts just outside Boston. This event last hosted a US Open in 1988 — and the last major event it hosted was the US Amateur Open in 2013. This is a Par 70 event consisting of 7264 yards with a Poa-annua mix with Bentgrass on the greens. As with all US Opens, the rough will be thick — and the fairways are narrow which will represent a significant challenge to the 156 professionals given the small greens that average just 4400 square feet.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Jon Rahm who is listed at +1300 odds at DraftKings to win this event. Those are the best odds for Rahm since before he won last year’s US Open. With Rory McElroy coming off a victory at the RBC Canadian Open and Justin Thomas winning the PGA Championship and Scottie Scheffler winning the Masters, Rahm is flying under the radar this week. He finished just tied for 48th place at the PGA Championship after a tie for 27th place at the Masters. But Rahm also won the Mexico Open in between those events — and he comes off a tie for 10th place at Memorial two weeks ago. What was encouraging about Rahm’s effort in his most recent tournament was how good he was with his putter. He gained +5.6 strokes versus the field in putting which was a career-best — and he converted 61 of the 62 putts he attempted inside ten feet that week. Rahm actually lost 1.4 strokes Off-the-Tee which is definitely out of the norm for him since he leads the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Rahm is the best driver on the tour given his length and accuracy. He has the most drives of at least 310 yards this season — and he has a 69% fairway accuracy rate on those bombs. Rahm had previously gained an average of +4.5 strokes versus the field Off-The-Tee in his previous six tournaments before the Memorial — and that event was the first time in his last 42 tournaments where he lost strokes to the field Off-the-Tee. Rahm also leads the tour in Greens In Regulation — and he ranks 11th in Bogey Avoidance which is an important metric for the US Open which usually sees the lowest scores of the four majors. In his last 24 rounds, Rahm is second in the field in Greens in Regulation — so his form is good. He also ranks second in the field in the last two years when playing on difficult courses where the average score relative to par is at least +0.75. Rahm is lined with Collin Morikawa for Round One head-to-head props. Morikawa is in a big slump after missing the cut in his last start at the Memorial. Since his 5th place at the Masters, he has not finished better than a tie for 26th place in his last five tournaments. The problem is his putter — while Morikawa has never been great with his blade, he has not gained strokes with his putter versus the field in 21 months. Morikawa ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 28th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season which are good but not elite numbers to overcome the lack of confidence he has in his putter. Take Rahm (7204) versus Morikawa (7203) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-22 |
Viktor Hovland v. Shane Lowry -105 |
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71-69 |
Win
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100 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. This Jack Nicklaus-designed course underwent another makeover in 2020 — it is now 7533 yards for this Par 72 course. Water impacts eight of the holes coming off the tee with nine holes contending with water on the approach. Last year, only 63% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is a challenging course with the average score being 72.56 per round in four of the last five events. Despite the long-distance, many of the 120 professionals this week will settle with their 3-wood to lay up given the course design — this has evolved to become the strategic way to handle this Nicklaus design. The greens consist of Bentgrass with a small putting surface averaging just 5000 square feet.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +2000 odds to win at DraftKings. We should take Lowry’s metrics with a grain of salt since he spends much of his time on the European Tour — but he ranks in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and sixth in Shots-Gained: Total. He has registered 11 straight Top-25 finishes worldwide in stroke-play events with three Top-3 finishes including at the Masters and then the RBS Heritage which is a Nicklaus-designed course. He lasts fourth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach. He leads in the field in his last 24 rounds in Par 4s ranging from 450-500 feet. He has previously won at the Firestone tournament in Ohio with a similar layout with long Par-4s. After finished tied for 15th place in 2020, he finished tied for 6th place last year. Lowry is linked with Viktor Hovland for Round One tournament matchups. Hovland is in a slump with no Top-20s since the Player’s Championship. The problem for Hovland is his scrambling if he can’t hit the greens — he ranks 203rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. This is not a good trait to carry into this tournament. In the last five years, the winner has averaged 5th in the event in Scrambling. He has finished in 47th and 48th place in his two previous results here. While his ball-striking is great, this course will challenge him in other ways that should keep him behind Lowry — especially in Round One. Take Lowry (7135) versus Hovland (7136) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-22 |
Rory McIlroy -135 v. Cameron Smith |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. This Jack Nicklaus-designed course underwent another makeover in 2020 — it is now 7533 yards for this Par 72 course. Water impacts eight of the holes coming off the tee with nine holes contending with water on the approach. Last year, only 63% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is a challenging course with the average score being 72.56 per round in four of the last five events. Despite the long-distance, many of the 120 professionals this week will settle with their 3-wood to lay up given the course design — this has evolved to become the strategic way to handle this Nicklaus design. The greens consist of Bentgrass with a small putting surface averaging just 5000 square feet.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Rory McIlroy who is listed at +1100 odds to win at DraftKings. If this is a course that tests all the clubs in the bag, McIlroy is one of the pros best equipped to pass that test. He ranks third in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and third in Driving Distance — he is at an advantage in these longer courses. But McIlroy also ranks third in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and second in Shots-Gained: Total. He leads the PGA Tour for 2021-22 in Adjusted Scoring. He also is second in the field this week one the last two seasons when playing on tougher courses that average over par per round. But McIlroy does not simply do better on longer courses — he is fourth in the field this week when playing on courses that require less than a driver over the last two seasons. And he is fourth on the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting when using his blade on Bentgrass. And McIlroy is due (as we know!) as he has three top-eight finishes in a row including an eighth place at the PGA Championship and a second-place at the Masters. McIlroy has had success at this tournament as well with four Top-10s and six Top-20s in tens starts here. I think McIlroy remains poised for a breakout this summer as he is playing his best golf in years. While this is not a major, winning the Jack Nicklaus sponsored event is on the shortlist of the prestigious mid-majors. McIlroy is linked with Cameron Smith in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Smith is in bad form — and has consistently struggled at this golf course. Smith is a master with his blade — and he ranks 9th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. But he is cold with his putting. Despite a personal-best +13.1 Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green at the PGA Championship two weeks ago, his putter did him in. Surprisingly, Smith has lost shots to the field in putting in five straight tournaments — that is the sign of a golfer playing without confidence. Now he returns to Muirfield where he has yet to break a round of 70 in 16 rounds of golf. Smith has only one round under par in his four trips here — and only two other rounds where he settled for par. He has finished tied for 65th place and tied for 67th place in the two rounds of his six where he made the weekend. His average round here is 74.38 — +2.38 strokes over par. Take McIlroy (7009) versus Smith (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-02-22 |
Will Zalatoris -115 v. Cameron Young |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial Tournament. This Jack Nicklaus-designed course underwent another makeover in 2020 — it is now 7533 yards for this Par 72 course. Water impacts eight of the holes coming off the tee with nine holes contending with water on the approach. Last year, only 63% of the greens were hit in regulation. This is a challenging course with the average score being 72.56 per round in four of the last five events. Despite the long-distance, many of the 120 professionals this week will settle with their 3-wood to lay up given the course design — this has evolved to become the strategic way to handle this Nicklaus design. The greens consist of Bentgrass with a small putting surface averaging just 5000 square feet.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +3000 to win this event at DraftKings. Zalatoris missed the cut last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge after losing in the playoff to Justin Thomas at the PGA Championship the week before. Zalatoris has Top-6 finishes in four of his last six events. He is ready to break through — and doing it at the Nicklaus Tournament would please the young phenom. He leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is second in the field in the last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and third in the field in the last 24 rounds in Ball-Striking. He also ranks 5th in the field in his last 12 rounds in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Additionally, Zalatoris ranks 4th the field in tough courses in the last two seasons — and he ranks 5th in overperformance relative to their baseline effort when playing on what is considered a difficult course. The average score at the Memorial has been +0.56 strokes over par in four of the last five years. Zalatoris is linked with Cameron Young in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The rookie is on a hot streak with three Top-3s in his last three events — but I still don’t trust a debutante at this Nicklaus event. Young ranks 74th in the tour in Shots-Gained: Tour to Green — and the last five winners have averaged 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tour to Green at this event. Young is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee -- but he is 66th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and I suspect he does not have the chops to hang with Zalatoris at this challenging course. Tale Zalatoris (7031) versus Young (7032) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-22 |
Tony Finau v. Abraham Ancer +0.5 |
|
71-70 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7209 yards. The 120 professionals will have only two Par-5s to contend with this week. The fairways are lined by trees. The greens have Bentgrass as the putting surface of an average of 5000 square feet while registering up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Abraham Ancer who is listed at +4000 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Ancer comes off a tie for ninth place at the PGA Championship where his ball-striking Tee-to-Green excelled. Ancer is not long off the tee — this is the type of course where he thrives. He ranks third on the tour in Driving Accuracy. He is also sixth in the field this week over the last two years in performances at courses that do not emphasize the driver — and he ranks fifth in the field in the last two years in overperformance on these courses. He has made the cut in all four of his trips here including two straight top-14s in the last two years. Ancer is linked with Tony Finau in Round One head-to-head props. Finau finished tied for 30th last week at the PGA Championship. He excited his fan base with a second-place finish at the Mexico Open to begin the month. But he has not finished better than 29th place in 10 of his last 11 tournaments while missing the cut three times. Finau’s putting is letting him down. He has lost strokes to the field on average in his last five tournaments — and his last ten tournaments and his last 20 tournaments. He ranks 181st in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. This is a problem for him this week since the last five winners at this event have averaged a finish of tenth in the field in Shots-Gained: Putting. Finau also ranks 142nd in Driving Accuracy — and that bodes trouble for him since he also ranks 96th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Take Ancer (7146) versus Finau (7145) in Round One head-to-head props — and grab the +0.5 strokes option if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-26-22 |
Jordan Spieth -120 v. Viktor Hovland |
|
69-69 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This is a Par 70 course consisting of 7209 yards. The 120 professionals will have only two Par-5s to contend with this week. The fairways are lined by trees. The greens have Bentgrass as the putting surface of an average of 5000 square feet while registering up to 13 feet on the stimpmeter.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Jordan Spieth who is listed at +1200 at DraftKings. Spieth has let us down for two straight weeks — yet I became convinced he is one to back once again this week. I am not stubborn — I am just looking at the evidence. Spieth should have won the AT&T Bryon Nelson if not for some shaky putting two weeks ago including a three-put inside 15 or so feet in the back nine on Sunday that contributed to his runner-up closing by just one stroke. Spieth then finished tied for 34th place last week at the PGA Championship — and it was his putter that let him down. Spieth lost -3.2 strokes due to his blade per round compared to the field. His ball-striking was excellent at Southern Hills — he gained +8.6 Strokes: Tee-to-Gree and +4.7 Strokes: Approach the Green versus the field last week. So, just like last week, I thought I would be quickly jumping off the Spieth bandwagon after the frustration of watching him putt. But Spieth has a sensation track record with his putter at this golf course. He has averaged gaining +7.732 strokes versus the field with his putter in his nine previous appearances here. he has finished in the top-three in fewest putts per round in five of his last six visits. In his last three appearances, Spieth has gained +7.1, +8.6, and +7.5 strokes versus the field with his blade. These eye-popping numbers had me reconsider — and we are talking about the all-time money winner at this tournament. He won the tournament in 2016 and has finished second three other times. He has finished in the top-14 eight times. Spieth has twice finished second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — so this is an area that he can clean up quickly. Perhaps the return to Colonial Country Club is just what the doctor ordered. Furthermore, he has demonstrated that he can stay in form after a major tournament as he won the RBC Heritage last month a week after the Masters. He leads the field in scoring at this event in his 24 rounds here. He is third in the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he rises to second in that metric when measuring his last 24 rounds. And because the driver is less important here given only two Par 5s and the tree-protected fairways, Spieth gets another edge since he is not as long as many of his peers off the tee. Spieth ranks fifth in the field in the last two years in scoring on courses where the driver is less important. Spieth is linked with Viktor Hovland in Round One head-to-head props. Hovland is in a mini-slump after settling for a tie for 34th place last week at the PGA Championship. He has not finished better than 27th place in his last three events — and his 18th finish at the World Golf Championships Match Play event in March is the best finish in his last five tournaments. He still ranks third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — but he drops to 31st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The discrepancy points to his chipper — Hovland ranks 205th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. I also worry about Hovland’s putter as he ranks 59th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The last five winners here have finished tenth in Shots-Gained: Putting after four rounds. Hovland will be playing here for just the second time after a tie for 23rd place in 2020. The last 19 winners have averaged at least six previous trips here with an average age of 36-years old — a strong suggestion that course history matters here. While Spieth is “only” 28-years old, he has nine previous appearances here — and he is the all-time money earner at this tournament. He also tied for the lead in the field last year when he scored 63 for Round One — so he should outscore Hovland on Thursday. Take Spieth (7139) versus Hovland (7140) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-22 |
Rory McIlroy -115 v. Justin Thomas |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
13 h 36 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma for the PGA Championship, the second major tournament of the 2022 season. This golf course hosted the PGA Championship in 2007 and the US Open in 2001. The last major event it held was the 2021 Senior PGA Championship. This Perry Maxwell-designed course was restored in 2019 with wider fairways and new unique structures to the bunkers. The trees are now less dense than in the past which takes away one of the protective winds that can hit the area — and after an original weather forecast of 15-20 miles per hour winds, the updated expectations today expect even heavier winds. Course management will be critical with creeks presenting a water challenge on 15 of the holes. The putting greens are Bentgrass of an average of 5000 square feet. The challenge will be to stay on the greens in the approach shots since the previous rough surrounding the putting surface has been replaced by bermudagrass — so the 156 professionals competing this week will have to risk long roll-offs for missing the greens. The Par-70 course now consists of 7556 yards, which is 234 yards longer than the past incarnations of this tournament.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Rory McIlroy who is listed at DraftKings at +1200 to win this event. I sure liked McIlory even more when he was priced at +1600 at DraftKings on Monday night — but I am not letting the drop of value on Wednesday scare me off from the professional I think is poised to pick up his next major championship. McIlroy is in very good form right now which he demonstrated at the Masters last month with his second-place finish. He closed out that tournament with a Sunday round of 64. He comes off a fifth place at the Wells Fargo Championship two weeks ago. Getting safely on the greens is critical this week — and McIlory ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Chipping and scrambling will also be essential when missing the green — and McIlroy ranks 14th on the tour for the 2021-22 season in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Furthermore, McIlroy is fourth in the field this week when competing in difficult Par-70 courses over his last 24 rounds. The Irishman has plenty of experience handling the wind given his experiences in Europe. McIlroy also fits the profile of recent PGA Championship winners. Six of the last nine winners of this tournament came off a top-15 or better finish as McIlroy is from two weeks ago. McIlroy is linked with Justin Thomas in head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Thomas is in the midst of a five-year drought for winning a major since lifting the Wanamaker Trophy at the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow in 2017. The thing is that Thomas has rarely been a serious contender for a major championship on a Sunday since that victory five years ago. He did finish tied for eighth at the Masters last month — but he was still nine strokes off from Scottie Scheffler who put on the green jacket. Thomas remains one of the best ball strikers on the tour — but his short game too often lets him down. He ranks 24th on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, ranking behind McIlroy. Thomas ranks 82nd in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take McIlroy (7012) versus Thomas (7011) Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-22 |
Jordan Spieth -110 v. Cameron Smith |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 58 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma for the PGA Championship, the second major tournament of the 2022 season. This golf course hosted the PGA Championship in 2007 and the US Open in 2001. The last major event it held was the 2021 Senior PGA Championship. This Perry Maxwell-designed course was restored in 2019 with wider fairways and new unique structures to the bunkers. The trees are now less dense than in the past which takes away one of the protective winds that can hit the area — and after an original weather forecast of 15-20 miles per hour winds, the updated expectations today expect even heavier winds. Course management will be critical with creeks presenting a water challenge on 15 of the holes. The putting greens are Bentgrass of an average of 5000 square feet. The challenge will be to stay on the greens in the approach shots since the previous rough surrounding the putting surface has been replaced by bermudagrass — so the 156 professionals competing this week will have to risk long roll-offs for missing the greens. The Par-70 course now consists of 7556 yards, which is 234 yards longer than the past incarnations of this tournament.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Jordan Spieth who is listed at +1400 at DraftKings. I liked Spieth’s value even more when he was listed at +1800 at DraftKings on Monday — but I am not jumping off the bandwagon. Spieth missed the cut at the Masters in which he later observed that it made him particularly angry since he thought he was hitting the ball well. He responded by winning first place at Harbour Town for the RBC Heritage in mid-April. What was impressive about that result was that he lost -2.5 strokes per round with his putter. Spieth then had his putter let him down last week in his second place finish the Byron Nelson — probably costing us our Top Overlay Bet winner last week at +2200. Spieth has twice finished second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — so this is an area that he can clean up quickly. Despite my frustration with Spieth last Sunday, there is a lot to like this week. Spieth also fits the profile of recent PGA Championship winners. Six of the last nine winners of this tournament came off a top-15 or better finish in their last start. Five of the last six PGA Championship winners played the previous week. Spieth loves to play the week before a major as he has done it 36 times previously before this event. He has responded with three victories at a major with two other third place finishes and a fourth place coming off competing the prior week. His bad three-put last Sunday that cost him two strokes and the likely championship is probably motivating now. He joined Justin Thomas for a trip to Southern Hills Country Club last month and really enjoyed the course. He compared the set up and the greens structure to the ones at the Colonial Golf Course for the Charles Schwab tournament, which was also designed by Perry Maxwell. Spieth won that tournament in 2016 and three other second place finishes on his resume there. He can handle the chipping if he is off the green — he ranked sixth on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Spieth is one of three golfers on the tour who ranks in the top-35 in all these categories: Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Around-thre-Green. A PGA Championship is all that remains for him to join the rarefied air of owning a career grand slam of all four majors. Spieth is linked with Cameron Smith for Tournament head-to-head matchups. Smith is enjoying a breakout season — but he has not demonstrated that his game matches up with the types of courses that the PGA privileges for its championship. He finished tied for fifth place in his first PGA Championship — but his results since does not inspire confidence: missed cut, 56th, 64th, 43rd, 59th. Smith ranks 40th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green which could keep him in trouble this week. Smith finished tied for third place at the Masters — but he then missed the cut at the RBC Heritage while Spieth was winning that event before a middling 21st place finish in New Orleans at the doubles event last month. Take Spieth (7015) versus Smith (7018) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-19-22 |
Tyrrell Hatton v. Will Zalatoris -125 |
|
70-66 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 25 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma for the PGA Championship, the second major tournament of the 2022 season. This golf course hosted the PGA Championship in 2007 and the US Open in 2001. The last major event it held was the 2021 Senior PGA Championship. This Perry Maxwell-designed course was restored in 2019 with wider fairways and new unique structures to the bunkers. The trees are now less dense than in the past which takes away one of the protective winds that can hit the area — and after an original weather forecast of 15-20 miles per hour winds, the updated expectations today expect even heavier winds. Course management will be critical with creeks presenting a water challenge on 15 of the holes. The putting greens are Bentgrass of an average of 5000 square feet. The challenge will be to stay on the greens in the approach shots since the previous rough surrounding the putting surface has been replaced by bermudagrass — so the 156 professionals competing this week will have to risk long roll-offs for missing the greens. The Par-70 course now consists of 7556 yards, which is 234 yards longer than the past incarnations of this tournament.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-10 favorites at DraftKings is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +2800. I liked Zalatoris more when he was priced at +3500 at DraftKings on Monday — but this will still be a nice payout if Zalatoris breaks through with his first major championship. In his six majors he has played since 2020, he has four top-10 finished. He did miss the cut at a US Open — and his sixth major had him withdraw because of a first injury. Zalatoris missed the cut last week at the AT&T Bryon Nelson — and I like taking golfers who might have something extra to prove while benefiting from two extra days off to recuperate and prepare. The weakness to his game is with his blade — but that has not stopped him from tie for sixth place and second place finishes at the Masters which also features bentgrass greens. His putting may not put him at as much of a disadvantage this week since the field will be challenged by the lack of rough. It will be hard for a competitor this week to gained tons of strokes with their putter versus the field — and Zalatoris’ elite ball-striking gives him a great chance to be at the top of the field in Greens-In-Regulation where his putter is competing against many of the pros chippers and wedges. Zalatoris leads the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is second in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also leads the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Additionally, he ranks fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds with scoring at major championships. Zalatoris is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in Round One head-to-head matchups. Hatton has not finished better than a tie for 21st place in his last four events — all consisting of fields not as strong as this one. He last played two weeks ago when he finished tied for 38th place at the Wells Fargo Championship. Hatton is like the Bizarro World Zalatoris — he ranks 70th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 67th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green but is second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. The problem for Hatton is he may not get the chance use that putter for birdie chances as opposed to saving par or preventing double-bogies. Hatton’s profile does not fit a great opening round either since he lacks professional experience on this course. Take Zalatoris (7216) versus Hatton (7215) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-12-22 |
Maverick McNealy v. Will Zalatoris -140 |
|
69-71 |
Loss |
-140 |
9 h 14 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Craig Ranch about 30 miles north of Dallas in McKinney, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson this week. One week before the PGA Championship, many of the top professionals will be competing this week. This is a Par-72 course consisting of 7468 yards with Bentgrass putting greens. The TPC Craig Ranch hosted this event last year with K.H. Lee posting a score of 25-under par to win the event. With wide-open fairways that are very forgiving off-the-tee, this was the easiest Par-72 for singular hosts for full-field events since 2008. The average score per round was 69.70 last year. 156 players compete this week.
Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to with this event is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +1400 odds at DraftKings. Zalatoris has registered three straight top-sixes on the PGA Tour after following up his tied for sixth place at the Masters with a tie for fifth place at the Zurich Classic doubles event last month. The 25-year-old is quickly establishing himself as one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. Zalatoris leads the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green over his last 24 rounds. It is interesting to note that Lee ranked second in the field last year with +8.3 Shots-Gained in Approach en route to his first-place finish. Five of the players finishing in the top six finished in the top seven in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. The top-six finishers all finished in the top-20 in Greens-In-Regulation in last year’s event — and Zalatoris lead the field in his 12 rounds in that metric. He is also second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee versus the field in his last 24 rounds — he ranks fourth in the last two years versus the field in Driver-friendly courses. Zalatoris’ blade has been his biggest weakness — but he is showing signs of improvement with his putter at the World Golf Championships match-play event and then at the Masters. Zalatoris is a Dallas-native who finished tied for 17th place here last year. He led the field by gaining +9.5 strokes in approach versus the field. Here are some comments he made about this course before playing at last year’s event: “So I played TPC Craig Ranch a bunch going back, I think, to when I was actually 12 years old … I played in the Ewing Junior Tour regular-season championship, played in a foursome with Scottie Scheffler, and I’ve got a lot of great memories here. So I guess I’ve been competing here basically half my life, so really looking forward to, obviously, competing in front of some friends and family this week.” This course experience should help him put up a big number. Zalatoris is linked with Maverick McNealy in Round One head-to-head propositions. McNealy is a high-floor but ceiling professional. He has made the cut in 12 straight events with nine top-35s — but he has not finished better than a tie for seventh place at the Genesis Invitational in February. He comes off a missed cut in the doubles event in New Orleans last month. His backers this week will argue that his weakness in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 131st for 2021-22 will be mitigated by the expansive fairways. Maybe. But while he is a solid ball-striker, he is not elite. He ranks 32nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, 58th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 44th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 51st in Greens-In-Regulation. And this is his first time playing as a professional at TPC Craig Ranch. Not only is Zalatoris the more talented player, but he also has significantly more experience playing on this course. Take Zalatoris (7148) versus McNealy (7147) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-12-22 |
Jordan Spieth +1.5 v. Sam Burns |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Craig Ranch about 30 miles north of Dallas in McKinney, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson this week. One week before the PGA Championship, many of the top professionals will be competing this week. This is a Par-72 course consisting of 7468 yards with Bentgrass putting greens. The TPC Craig Ranch hosted this event last year with K.H. Lee posting a score of 25-under par to win the event. With wide-open fairways that are very forgiving off-the-tee, this was the easiest Par-72 for singular hosts for full-field events since 2008. The average score per round was 69.70 last year. 156 players compete this week.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Jordan Spieth who is listed at +2200 odds at DraftKings. Spieth first played this course in high school back in 2010 — and the Texas Longhorn has plenty of experience here. He finished tied for ninth place at this event last year in his breakout-season where he broke out of a multi-year slump. He opened the tournament with a round of 64 and he led the field in Par-Four scoring. After an up-and-down 2021-22 campaign, Spieth appeared to turn a corner in his last event at the RBC Heritage last month where he won the event. What was encouraging was they he dominated the field by gaining +13.3 strokes versus the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. It is not uncommon for his best tournaments to coincide with a hot week with his blade but that was not the case at the RBC Heritage. Spieth is fifth in the field over the last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He is third in the field this week in Greens-In-Regulation over his last 12 rounds. Interestingly, his last two wins on the PGA Tour was the week before a major or a week after a major. The RBC Heritage was a week after the Master’s and his resurgent victory at the Valero Texas Open last season was a week before the Master’s — so Spieth is not a pro that will worry too much about conserving his energy for the PGA Championship next week. Spieth is linked with Sam Burns in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Burns has risen to tenth in the world rankings with two victories on the tour this season. This is his first event since tying for second place at the doubles event at the Zurich Classic in New Orleans last month where he teamed with Billy Horschel. But Burns did miss the cut at the Masters in the tournament before that one making it his most recent singles stroke-play event. Burns is a good ball-striker — but he ranks just 78th on the tour in Strokes-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Take Spieth (7011) versus Burns (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets — and take Spieth at +1.5 strokes if available and priced no higher than -150. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-12-22 |
Talor Gooch -115 v. Maverick McNealy |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Craig Ranch about 30 miles north of Dallas in McKinney, Texas for the AT&T Byron Nelson this week. One week before the PGA Championship, many of the top professionals will be competing this week. This is a Par-72 course consisting of 7468 yards with Bentgrass putting greens. The TPC Craig Ranch hosted this event last year with K.H. Lee posting a score of 25-under par to win the event. With wide-open fairways that are very forgiving off-the-tee, this was the easiest Par-72 for singular hosts for full-field events since 2008. The average score per round was 69.70 last year. 156 players compete this week.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Talor Gooch who is listed at +4500 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Gooch has the pedigree of a pro who could put up a big score this week. He leads the PGA Tour in Eagles-per-hole. He is tied for the lead in Par-Three scoring and is tied for fourth in Par-Five scoring. He is also second in the field this week in Par-Three scoring for holes longer than 200 yards which will be important this week. Gooch is one of the better ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks 19th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 25th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 19th in Greens-In-Regulation. He is 13th in the field this week at Driver-heavy courses over the last two years. And he is seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green which certainly does not hurt. Gooch has registered three straight top-21 finishes in his last three starts including a tie for 14th place at the Masters. Gooch is another Texan who grew up in the Dallas area — and he finished tied for 39th at this tournament last year with a 12-under par. Gooch is linked with Maverick McNealy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McNealy is a high-floor but ceiling professional. He has made the cut in 12 straight events with nine top-35s — but he has not finished better than a tie for seventh place at the Genesis Invitational in February. He comes off a missed cut in the doubles event in New Orleans last month. His backers this week will argue that his weakness in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green where he ranks 131st for 2021-22 will be mitigated by the expansive fairways. Maybe. But while he is a solid ball-striker, he is not elite. He ranks 32nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, 58th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 44th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 51st in Greens-In-Regulation. And this is his first time playing as a professional at TPC Craig Ranch. Take Gooch (7029) versus McNealy (7030) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-14-22 |
Collin Morikawa -145 v. Webb Simpson |
|
70-69 |
Loss |
-145 |
10 h 17 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves up the east coast from Augusta National to Hilton Head Island in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage Open at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7121 yards and Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee is not a factor this week on this Pat Dye-designed course. Ball-shaping on this course where the fairways are protected by trees is critical. The greens are small as well with an average square footage of 3700 per hole. The professionals’ average hitting Greens In Regulation of 58% is well below the PGA Tour average. In the last ten years, 53 of the players who finished in the top five at this event competed at the Masters the week before.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1200 at DraftKings. Morikawa had been in a mini-slump earlier this season — but he found his elite iron game last week at the Masters where he finished in fifth place. He shot a round of 67 on Sunday and appears to be confident and back in top form. Morikawa ranks third on the PGA Tour in the All-Around and second in Ball-Striking. He ranks fourth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total when playing under smaller greens of less than 5000 square feet in the last two years. He also ranks fourth in the field this week when playing on coastal courses. The weakest part of Morikawa’s game is his putting — but he has improved this season to ranking tied for 31st in Shots-Gained: Putting for 2021-22. He was in second place at this tournament after the first three rounds before dropping back to a tie for seventh place on Sunday. After a relatively-stress free Masters, the former PGA and British Open champion is poised for a great week. Morikawa is linked with Webb Simpson in Round One head-to-head props. Simpson thrives on this course with eight top-20 finishes including the 2020 championship. He did play at the Masters last week but settled for 35th place. Yet that was still his best result in his four tournaments in 2022. Simpson is not playing his best golf right now. At his best, he is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour who thrives on smaller Pat Dye courses that do not reward length off the tee. Yet Simpson ranks just 74th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and tied for 82nd in Ball Striking. Take Morikawa (7137) versus Simpson (7138) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-22 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick v. Joaquin Niemann +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
110 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves up the east coast from Augusta National to Hilton Head Island in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage Open at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7121 yards and Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee is not a factor this week on this Pat Dye-designed course. Ball-shaping on this course where the fairways are protected by trees is critical. The greens are small as well with an average square footage of 3700 per hole. The professionals’ average hitting Greens In Regulation of 58% is well below the PGA Tour average. In the last ten years, 53 of the players who finished in the top five at this event competed at the Masters the week before.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Joaquin Niemann who is listed at +3500 odds to win this event at DraftKings. Niemann won the Genesis Invitational earlier this year. He comes off a tie for 35th place at the Masters last week after being paired with Tiger Woods for the first two days — so getting out of the circus should be a relief for the veteran. The Chilean is 25th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is sixth on the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and sixth in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. He finished tied for fifth place at Harbour Town last year. Niemann is linked with Matt Fitzpatrick in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fitzpatrick is one of the most consistent golfers on the tour — and after his tie for 14th place last week at the Masters, he has made the cut in four of his last five events. I do worry about his hitting greens this week — he ranks 90th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation this season. But my bigger concern with Fitzpatrick is his apparent ceiling. Fitzpatrick does not win tournaments. His best result this year is a tie for fifth place at the Valspar Championship. His best finish in the last three seasons on the tour is a third place at the Memorial in 2020. Niemann has the bigger upside. Take Niemann (7016) versus Fitzpatrick (7015) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take the +1.5 strokes option if available and priced no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-14-22 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Shane Lowry +1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 13 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves up the east coast from Augusta National to Hilton Head Island in South Carolina for the RBC Heritage Open at the Harbour Town Golf Links. This is a Par 71 course consisting of 7121 yards and Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee is not a factor this week on this Pat Dye-designed course. Ball-shaping on this course where the fairways are protected by trees is critical. The greens are small as well with an average square footage of 3700 per hole. The professionals’ average hitting Greens In Regulation of 58% is well below the PGA Tour average. In the last ten years, 53 of the players who finished in the top five at this event competed at the Masters the week before.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Shane Lowry is priced at +1800 at DraftKings. Lowry comes off a tie for third place at the Masters last week. After triple bogey early on Sunday in his final round, he rebounded with birdies on six of his final 14 holes. He made all five of his cuts on the PGA Tour this year with four top-13 finishes including a second-place at the Honda Classic. Lowry spends much of his time on the European Tour so he will want to take full advantage of his time here in the States. He ranks 11th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is fourth in the field this week in that metric in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks third in Proximity to the hole and second in Scrambling. Furthermore, Lowry is 27th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 17th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He leads the field this week in Shots-Gained: Total when playing on Pat Dye courses in his last 24 rounds. He has played this course well in his previous four trips — he finished tied for third in 2019 before a tie for ninth last year. Lowry is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Cantlay is not playing as well this year as he did in 2021. After his tie for 39th place last week at the Masters, he has not finished better than his 26th place at the World Golf Championship Match Play event last month in his last four events. He finished in 33rd place at the Genesis Invitational and he missed the cut at the Players Championship. Cantlay ranks just 42nd on the tour in Ball-Striking this season — and he is 146th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green which is probably the most important metric for this tournament. Take Lowry (7012) versus Cantlay (7011) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take +1.5 strokes if available and priced at no higher than -150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-07-22 |
Matthew Fitzpatrick v. Brooks Koepka +0.5 |
|
71-75 |
Loss |
-125 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to Augusta, Georgia this week for the first major championship of 2022 with The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7435 yards. The course consists of very little rough so long hitters off the tee can be rewarded with long drives even if they veer off the fairway. The bentgrass greens are very fast. Reaching the green in regulation is generally considered the most important attribute to finding success at this tournament. It will be windy in Augusta this week with the weather peaking Friday afternoon with 20 mile-per-hour winds that could gust at 30 MPH or more.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Koepka has the well-earned reputation of raising his level of play for the major championship events. He has won the US Open twice and the PGA Championship twice. Additionally, in his last 20 major tournaments since 2016, Koepka has entered the final round within four strokes of the lead in ten of those tournaments — so he is frequently right in the mix. Furthermore, since 2016, Koepka has shot a combined 92 shots under par — and the second closest golfer to that mark is 40 shots behind. There has been a general profile regarding recent winners of this event: under 40 years old, ranked in the top-30 in the world, good current form, a course history at Augusta that includes top-20 finishes, and a top-six finish at a major or World Golf Championship event within the last 15 months. Koepka checks all these boxes. After missing the cut at last year’s Masters (when he was struggling with his knee after surgery), he rebounded by finishing tied for 2nd place at the PGA Championship before a tie for 4th place at the US Open and a tie for 6th place at the British Open. Before Hideki Matsuyama won the green jacket last year, the previous nine winners had registered at least two top-15 finishes in their three previous events coming into this tournament. Koepka checks this good form box as well. He finished tied for 5th place two weeks ago at the World Golf Championships Match Play event. He finished tied for 12th place at the Valspar Championship before that event. He did miss the cut at the Players Championship — but he had finished tied for 16th place at the Honda Classic and tied for 3rd place at the Waste Management Phoenix Open before that disappointment. Frankly, this is as good of a recent form for Koepka as he has ever had entering a major where he ramps up his intensity. He has admitted that he does not play a ton of practice rounds — he uses the other tournaments as his de-facto training sessions. This is why it is not helpful to look too closely at Koepka’s season-lone deeper analytics since that data will not translate into his performance in majors. That said, Koepka does rank 9th in the field in over performance for his putting when playing on fast greens that register at least 12 feet on the stimpmeter. Koepka is looking for his first green jacket — and he has gotten close. He finished tied for 2nd place in 2019 — and he has a tie for 7th place and a tie for 11th place under his belt. He did miss the cut last year but he was dealing with his knee that no longer appears to be an issue. Koepka is healthy and in great form. He is linked with Matt Fitzpatrick in Round One head-to-head props. Fitzpatrick leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Total this season — and he had four top-10 finishes in his last five stroke-play events. His last tournament was the World Golf Championships Match Play event where he finished tied for 18th place. But Fitzpatrick tends to fall short under the spotlight of the majors. His best finish at a major last year was a tie for 26th at the British Open. He is not a great fit for Augusta National. He ranks just 152nd in Driving Distance on the tour — this is an area where a big hitter like Koepka has a significant edge. He also ranks just 58th in Par 4 Scoring — and four of the last six winners of this tournament led the field in Par 4 Scoring for the week. Fitzpatrick has made all six cuts when competing here — but he has not bested his tie for 7th place back in 2016. Take Koepka (7278) versus Fitzpatrick (7227) in Round One head-to-head betting props (and take Koepka +0.5 strokes if it is available and priced no higher than -150 as I have seen this option at several sites). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-07-22 |
Billy Horschel v. Will Zalatoris -130 |
|
74-71 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to Augusta, Georgia this week for the first major championship of 2022 with The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7435 yards. The course consists of very little rough so long hitters off the tee can be rewarded with long drives even if they veer off the fairway. The bentgrass greens are very fast. Reaching the green in regulation is generally considered the most important attribute to finding success at this tournament. It will be windy in Augusta this week with the weather peaking Friday afternoon with 20 mile-per-hour winds that could gust at 30 MPH or more.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +3500 to win this tournament at DraftKings. We need to forget some of the handicapping rules for The Masters when it comes to Zalatoris. Newcomers are not supposed to perform well at Augusta National where course history seems so important — but Zalatoris challenged that notion last year when he finished in second place in his debut at this tournament in his rookie season. Zalatoris is special — and his three top-eight finishes at six major championships attest to his vast potential. Zalatoris leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. He is 9th in Greens-In-Regulation. He also is 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he leads the field this week in this metric in his last 24 rounds. Zalatoris also ranks 13th in the field this week in Adjusted Scoring at majors over his six events. Zalatoris has the length off the tee to drive his way closer to the green to avoid trouble. He is 12th in the field in Driving Distance — and his average drive of 310 yards is tied for 17th on the tour with Dustin Johnson which is good company. His weakness is his putter — but he is showing signs of improvement with his blade most recently at the World Golf Championships Match Play event where he finished tied for 5th place. Zalatoris has finished tied for 36th place or better in all six of his tournaments in 2022 including three top-sixes headlined by 2nd place at the Farmers Insurance Open in late January. Zalatoris is linked with Billy Horschel in Round One head-to-head matchups. Horschel has moved to ranking 13th in the world after finishing tied for 9th place at the Match Play event two weeks ago. Unfortunately, I suspect that his ceiling. Horschel is accurate off the tee and a wizard with his short game and putter. But he ranks just 134th in Driving Distance — and he also ranks 109th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which is a tough combination when playing at Augusta National. Horschel’s best result at a major last year was tied for 23rd place at the PGA Championship. He has made all six cuts in his previous appearances at The Masters with his best result being 17th place — but he was just tied for 50th place last year. Take Zalatoris (7270) versus Horschel (7269) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-07-22 |
Cameron Smith +1.5 v. Scottie Scheffler |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to Augusta, Georgia this week for the first major championship of 2022 with The Masters at Augusta National Golf Club. This is a Par 72 course consisting of 7435 yards. The course consists of very little rough so long hitters off the tee can be rewarded with long drives even if they veer off the fairway. The bentgrass greens are very fast. Reaching the green in regulation is generally considered the most important attribute to finding success at this tournament. It will be windy in Augusta this week with the weather peaking Friday afternoon with 20 mile-per-hour winds that could gust at 30 MPH or more.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Cameron Smith who is listed at +1400 at DraftKings. Smith fits the profile that has defined many of the recent champions of this tournament. There has been a general profile regarding recent winners of this event: under 40 years old, ranked in the top-30 in the world, good current form, a course history at Augusta that includes top-20 finishes, and a top-six finish at a major or World Golf Championship event within the last 15 months. Smith checks all these boxes. He began the year by winning the Tournament of Champions Sentry Open in Hawai’i. He comes off winning the Players Championship which is considered the fifth major championship. He also finished in fifth place in last summer’s World Golf Championship St. Jude’s Invitational. Over the last six months, Smith has averaged +2.02 strokes-gained versus the field per round which is the top mark on the PGA Tour. The most intriguing characteristic about Smith is that he seems to thrive under pressure. Smith’s skill set matches the demands of Augusta National. He continues to improve his approach play as he ranks 8th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He is 5th on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation. He leads the tour in Adjusted Scoring. Smith is elite with his irons, wedges, and his blade. He ranks 3rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Furthermore, he is 6th in the field this week when putting on fast greens over the last two years (as defined as measuring at least 12 feet on the stimpmeter) — and he ranks 12th in the field in net performance with his putting on fast greens versus the other situations over the last two years. Smith also ranks 6th in the field in performance on driver-heavy courses like this over the last two years. These characteristics have produced past success at Augusta National. Smith has made the cut in all five of his appearances at The Masters with three top-10 finishes. He finished in 5th place in 2018, settled for a tie for 2nd place in the November 2020 event, and finished in 10th place last year. All the stars may be aligning for Smith this week to break through and win his first major. Smith is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. If there is a hotter golfer on the planet than Smith, it is Scheffler who has won three of his last six tournaments to rise to the number one ranking in the world. But the number one ranked player has often been an albatross for the professionals at this tournament — and Scheffler is new to this experience. His tie for 55th place at the Players Championship is a red flag for me. He ranks 30th in the Shots-Gained: Approach the Green which is solid but certainly not elite. He also ranks 33rd in the Shots-Gained: Around the Green — and this is an important component to avoiding trouble on this golf course. The 25-year-old is doing well at the second-tier tournaments on the tour — and he recently won the WGC Match Play event last month. But he has only finished in 19th and 18th place in his two previous trips to Augusta — and this only being his third time here as a pro is not a net advantage. I like the golfer, but I don’t like this mix of intangibles with him competing with the big boys. Take Smith (7011) versus Scheffler (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props (and take Smith at +1.5 strokes if it is available and priced no higher than -150 as it is in several spots). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-22 |
Gary Woodland -112 v. Keegan Bradley |
|
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to San Antonio this week at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7494 yards. Since 2010, this has been the second most difficult tournament on the PGA Tour to reach the Green-In-Regulation with that average being 58%, as compared to the tour GIR average of 65%. The wind is typically a challenge for the professionals when playing in the State of Texas. The putting surface is Bermuda grass.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Gary Woodland who is listed at +3000 to win this event at DraftKings. Woodland is in good form with a pair of 5th place finishes during the Florida swing of the tour before missing the cut at the Players Championship — but he then finished for a tie for 21st place at the Valspar in Tampa in his last event two weeks ago. What was encouraging about that tournament was that he gained +4 strokes against the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Woodland is 44th on the tour overall in that metric but trending in the right direction. Woodland’s strength is his driver as he ranks 14th on the tour in Driving Distance — and he is one of the pros in the best position to deal with windy conditions. He ranks 5th in the field in Shots-Gained per round on Texas courses since 2018. He also has a hot blade as he ranks 15th in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting over his last 12 rounds. Woodland finished tied for 6th place at this tournament last year while closing the weekend with scores of 67 and 69. Woodland is linked with Keegan Bradley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Bradley settled for a tie for 35th place in the World Golf Championship Match Play event last week. Bradley had been playing well earlier this season highlighted by a 5th place at the Players Championship — but he missed the cut two weeks ago in what has been a crammed schedule. Bradley needs to win this week to qualify for the Masters for the first time since 2019. He has made the cut in four of his five appearances at this tournament — but his his best performance here was a tie for 9th place back in 2011. Bradley’s short game is a weakness for him this week. He ranks 68th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 151st in Shots-Gained: Putting. And given that he ranks 80th in Ball-Striking this season, he may not be proficient enough to avoid trouble on this difficult course. Take Woodland (7017) versus Bradley (7018) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-22 |
Chris Kirk -134 v. Jhonattan Vegas |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-134 |
7 h 26 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to San Antonio this week at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7494 yards. Since 2010, this has been the second most difficult tournament on the PGA Tour to reach the Green-In-Regulation with that average being 58%, as compared to the tour GIR average of 65%. The wind is typically a challenge for the professionals when playing in the State of Texas. The putting surface is Bermuda grass.
Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this tournament is on Chris Kirk who is listed at +2500 to win this event at DraftKings. Kirk was thriving in his younger professional career with four wins on the PGA Tour from 2011 to 2015. Kirk dealt with issues in the “personal demons” department after that — but he may be playing his best golf since that prolific period during the salad days of the Obama Administration. Kirk had a stretch earlier this year where he followed up a tie for 14th place at Waste Management Phoenix Open with a tie for 7th place at the Honda Classic and then a tie for 5th place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He did miss the cut in his last tournament at the Players Championship a week later — but he may have been tired after a grueling schedule that had him on the road for a third straight week and in his fifth week in six. Now the veteran has had two weeks off — so he should be rested and ready. The underlying metrics confirm he is playing some really nice golf right now. He ranks 10th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is crafty with his short wedges close to the hole as well as he ranks 16th this season on Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green — and this is an important consideration this week since getting on the green is easier said than done at this course. Kirk ranks 15th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. The driver matters this week as well given the near 7500 yards — and many of the pros choose to just bang it through the wind just to get closer to the green even if off the fairways. The rough is more forgiving here. In his last 12 rounds, Kirk ranks 11th in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Kirk also ranks 15th in the field in the last two years when playing on low-rough penalty courses. He has made five of his seven cuts at this event in his career including a tie for 6th place last year where he closed the weekend with a 67 and 68. He has also finished tied for 8th place twice at this tournament. Kirk is linked with Jhonattan Vegas for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Vegas was our Best Bet last week at the PGA Corales Puntacana Championship while most of the pros were playing in Austin, Texas at the World Golf Championship Match Play event. Vegas finished tied for 4th place against a weaker field. He also finished tied for 27th place previously at the Valspar Championship — but he also missed the cut at the Players Championship. I liked Vegas last week because of his driver — he ranks 5th on the tour in Driving Distance which helps him rank 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But Vegas is not as adept with his irons. He ranks 49th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green — and he is just 181st in the Shots-Gained: Around the Green which could get him in trouble this week. His record here is far from spectacular as he has missed the cut in four of his eight appearances including last year. His best finish was in 2019 when he finished in 30th place. Take Kirk (7025) versus Vegas (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-31-22 |
Adam Hadwin +1.5 v. Keegan Bradley |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to San Antonio this week at the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7494 yards. Since 2010, this has been the second most difficult tournament on the PGA Tour to reach the Green-In-Regulation with that average being 58%, as compared to the tour GIR average of 65%. The wind is typically a challenge for the professionals when playing in the State of Texas. The putting surface is Bermuda grass.
Our Long Shot Bet with a golfer who is listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Adam Hadwin who is listed at +4000 to win this tournament. Hadwin is in great form as he followed up a tie for 9th place at the Players Championship with a tie for 7th place at the Valspar Championship. Hadwin has a nice all-around game — and he ranks 23rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. Hadwin is very good with his driver and his putter — but he is not long off the tee. Instead, Hadwin is one of the most reliable off the tee by ranking 26th in Driver Accuracy. Hadwin ranks 32nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — bolstered by ranking 25th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. And with his putter, Hadwin ranks third in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda grass over the last two years. Hadwin has made the cut in two of his three appearances here including a tie for 23rd last year. Hadwin is linked with Keegan Bradley in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Bradley settled for a tie for 35th place in the World Golf Championship Match Play event last week. Bradley had been playing well earlier this season highlighted by a 5th place at the Players Championship — but he missed the cut two weeks ago in what has been a crammed schedule. Bradley needs to win this week to qualify for the Masters for the first time since 2019. He has made the cut in four of his five appearances at this tournament — but his best performance here was a tie for 9th place back in 2011. Bradley’s short game is a weakness for him this week. He ranks 68th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. He ranks 151st in Shots-Gained: Putting. And given that he ranks 80th in Ball-Striking this season, he may not be proficient enough to avoid trouble on this difficult course. Take Hadwin (7019) +1.5 strokes versus Bradley (7020) (if the +1.5 is available at a price not higher than -150, if not, take Hadwin straight-up at the better price) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Kramer Hickok +1.5 v. Doc Redman |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 57 m |
Show
|
With most of the top players on the PGA tour competing in the World Golf Championships match play event in Austin, Texas this week, the PGA Tour features second-tier players and many professionals who compete on the Korn Ferry Tour taking part in the PGA Corales Puntacana Championship at the Punta Cana Resort and Club’s Course in the Dominican Republic. This is a long 7670 yards course with a par of 72. This is a resort course with the fairways generous tee-to-green. Wind is a factor with many on the holes oceanside. The greens and fairways consist of paspalum grass. Most of the recent winners here have been short hitters who got hot with their blade — but long hitters would still seem to have an edge at this event. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Kramer Hickok who is listed at +4500 at DraftKings. Hickok is making his third appearance at this event after following up a tie for 10th place in 2019 with a tie for 21st place in 2020. He comes into this event in solid form as he made the cut and finished tied for 42nd place at the Players Championship before a tie for 33rd place last week at the Valspar Championship. Hickok’s strengths in his game are off the fee and on the greens. He ranks a solid 75th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His recent course history here is the most appealing aspect to his case. Hickok is linked with Doc Redman in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Redman finished tied for 39th place last week at the Valspar Championship — but this will be his debut at this event. The 24-year-old does not have the profile to suggest he will thrive at this golf course. He ranks only 129th on the tour in Driving Distance — and that translates him to ranking just 90th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Redman’s ball-striking has been below average as well as he ranks 120th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Hickok (7471) at +1.5 strokes versus Redman (if this option is offered and at a price no higher than -150; if not, then taking Hickok straight-up is fine) in Tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Sahith Theegala -150 v. Mark Hubbard |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 23 m |
Show
|
With most of the top players on the PGA tour competing in the World Golf Championships match play event in Austin, Texas this week, the PGA Tour features second-tier players and many professionals who compete on the Korn Ferry Tour taking part in the PGA Corales Puntacana Championship at the Punta Cana Resort and Club’s Course in the Dominican Republic. This is a long 7670 yards course with a par of 72. This is a resort course with the fairways generous tee-to-green. Wind is a factor with many on the holes oceanside. The greens and fairways consist of paspalum grass. Most of the recent winners here have been short hitters who got hot with their blade — but long hitters would still seem to have an edge at this event.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who has the most value relative to the odds is on Sahith Theegala who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings to win this event. The 24-year-old is displaying perhaps the biggest upside of the entire field given his recent form. He broke out with a tie for third place at Waste Management Phoenix Open in February. He comes off a strong tie for seventh place last week at the Valspar Championship where he finished second in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Ball-striking is a strength for Theegala as he ranks 54th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. This will be his first appearance at this event — but debutantes have a better chance to break through given the competition. Theegala is linked with Mark Hubbard in Tournament Matchup head-to-head propositions. The 32-year-old has made five straight cuts after finished tied for 38th place at the Puerto Rico Open three weeks ago — but this will be his debut at this event like it is for Theegala. Hubbard is not long off the tee — he ranks 205th on the tour in Driving Distance and just 167th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is also just 66th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Theegala (7459) versus Hubbard (7460) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-24-22 |
Jhonattan Vegas -138 v. Joel Dahmen |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
With most of the top players on the PGA tour competing in the World Golf Championships match play event in Austin, Texas this week, the PGA Tour features second-tier players and many professionals who compete on the Korn Ferry Tour taking part in the PGA Corales Puntacana Championship at the Punta Cana Resort and Club’s Course in the Dominican Republic. This is a long 7670 yards course with a par of 72. This is a resort course with the fairways generous tee-to-green. Wind is a factor with many on the holes oceanside. The greens and fairways consist of paspalum grass. Most of the recent winners here have been short hitters who got hot with their blade — but long hitters would still seem to have an edge at this event.
Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this event is on Jhonattan Vegas who is listed at +2000 at DraftKings. The Venezuelan is certainly familiar with coastal courses that feature paspalum grass. And he showed promise in this event last year by posting a four-under round of 68 on Sunday to conclude his tie for 18th place. This is his fourth appearance at this event after finished tied for 25th place in 2019. Vegas is one of the biggest hitters on the tour — he currently ranks fifth for the 2021-22 season in Driving Distance and he is accurate enough off the tee to rank 13th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He averages +0.8 strokes gained versus the field Off-the-Tee. His iron game is solid as well as he ranked 31st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last year and is currently 48th in that metric this season. The weakness in his game is his putter — but he will have the benefit of soft greens at this course this week. When he gets hot with his putter, he becomes formidable even with the top pros competing. He ranks fifth in the field this week in scoring on coastal courses in the last two years — and he ranks third in the field in the last two years in Shots-Gained on courses with paspalum grass. After finishing in second place three times last year, he has made five of his last six cuts this season. He comes off a tie for 27th place at the Valspar Championship after posting an opening round of 64. Vegas is linked the Joel Dahmen in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Dahmen is the defending champion after winning here last year — and he has another two top-15 results at this event. He is in solid form as well after posting a a tie for 33rd place at the Players Championship before a tie for 39th place last week at the Valspar Championship. But Dahmen is a short hitter — he ranks 135th on the tour in Driving Distance. As a result, Dahmen ranks 60th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 85th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Despite past results here, I think Vegas’ length of the tee should give him the edge against the reigning champ. Take Vegas (7451) versus Dahmen (7452) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
03-17-22 |
Tyrrell Hatton v. Shane Lowry -108 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
The final stop on the Florida swing of the PGA Tour takes place this week with the PGA Tour moving to Palm Harbor in Tampa Bay at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copper Course for the Valspar Championship. This is a Par-71 event consisting of 7340 yards with five Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. Tree-lined fairways make it difficult for big hitters to rely on their distance off the tee. Accuracy and precision with ball-striking are privileged at this event. The greens consist of Tif Eagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The course averaged a score of 71.95 with a Relative-to-Par figure of +0.95 making it one of the more difficult events on the PGA Tour. The field consists of 144 professionals.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Shane Lowry who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings. Lowry is an excellent ball-striker whose metrics on the PGA Tour often undervalue his real worth since he splits his time on the European Tour. He is in outstanding form coming off a tie for 13th place last week at the Players Championship. In his last six events worldwide, he has five top-15s and a tie for 24th place — and his previous PGA Tour event before last week was at the Honda Classic where he finished in second place. Lowry ranks 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He also ranks seventh on the tour in Par-3 Scoring which will help this week with five Par-3s this week. Lowry ranks third in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green in his last 12 rounds. He is fourth in the field in Bogey Avoidance over the last 24 rounds. Lowry plays this event for the second time after a 49th place finish in 2018 — so he has experience here. Lowry is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Hatton comes into this event in great form with a second-place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago before a tie for 13th place last week at the Players Championship. But I hate this sandwich spot for him given his plans to compete next week in the match play event. Enduring the five days at the TPC Sawgrass given the weather last week was grueling — and he had a stressful tournament at Bay Hill where he finished second. This might the week he exhales with his eyes turning to the match play money next week. Hatton leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but he has struggled with his accuracy off the tee in recent weeks. He ranks 140th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His ball-striking is not elite either with him ranking 100th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 114th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Hatton has only played this event once — and he missed that cut in 2019. Take Lowry (7020) versus Hatton (7019) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck — Frank.
|
03-17-22 |
Tyrrell Hatton v. Matthew Fitzpatrick -105 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 3 m |
Show
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The final stop on the Florida swing of the PGA Tour takes place this week with the PGA Tour moving to Palm Harbor in Tampa Bay at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copper Course for the Valspar Championship. This is a Par-71 event consisting of 7340 yards with five Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. Tree-lined fairways make it difficult for big hitters to rely on their distance off the tee. Accuracy and precision with ball-striking are privileged at this event. The greens consist of Tif Eagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The course averaged a score of 71.95 with a Relative-to-Par figure of +0.95 making it one of the more difficult events on the PGA Tour. The field consists of 144 professionals. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Matt Fitzpatrick who is listed at +2200 odds to win at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick was our Top Overlay Bet last week at the Players Championship — but he missed the cut like so many others did amidst the elements (but Fitzpatrick does not have the excuse of the doomed Late-Early Thursday-Friday tee-time). That missed cut last week snapped Fitzpatrick’s streak of four-straight Top-10 results. He should come into this event rested and with a chip on his shoulder. Fitzpatrick went into the Players Championship coming off a tie for ninth place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill while shooting under par of the weekend while most of the other pros were posting underwhelming numbers given the weather conditions. Fitzpatrick is still in great form with five-straight top-12s worldwide before last week. He still ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total after last week. He is also tenth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He might be the best putter on the tour on Bermuda greens. He ranks tenth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green in his last 12 rounds. Fitzpatrick is not a big driver off the tee — and he ranks seventh in the field this week on courses that require less than a driver on many of the holes in the last two years. He is also fourth in the field in the last two years when playing on tough courses with a Relative-to-Par average of at least +0.75. Fitzpatrick also ranks sixth on the tour in Par-5 Scoring which should help him at this course with the four Par-5s. Fitzpatrick is linked with Tyrrell Hatton in head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Hatton comes into this event in great form with a second-place at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago before a tie for 13th place last week at the Players Championship. But I hate this sandwich spot for him given his plans to compete next week in the match play event. Enduring the five days at the TPC Sawgrass given the weather last week was grueling — and he had a stressful tournament at Bay Hill where he finished second. This might the week he exhales with his eyes turning to the match play money next week. Hatton leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting — but he has struggled with his accuracy off the tee in recent weeks. He ranks 140th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. His ball-striking is not elite either with him ranking 100th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 114th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Hatton has only played this event once — and he missed that cut in 2019. Take Fitzpatrick (7022) versus Hatton (7021) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck — Frank.
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03-17-22 |
Collin Morikawa -110 v. Dustin Johnson |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 40 m |
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The final stop on the Florida swing of the PGA Tour takes place this week with the PGA Tour moving to Palm Harbor in Tampa Bay at the Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club’s Copper Course for the Valspar Championship. This is a Par-71 event consisting of 7340 yards with five Par-3 holes and four Par-5s. Tree-lined fairways make it difficult for big hitters to rely on their distance off the tee. Accuracy and precision with ball-striking are privileged at this event. The greens consist of Tif Eagle Bermuda grass overseeded with Poa trivialis. The course averaged a score of 71.95 with a Relative-to-Par figure of +0.95 making it one of the more difficult events on the PGA Tour. The field consists of 144 professionals.
Our Best Bet for the winner of this tournament is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1200 at DraftKings to win this event. Morikawa was our Best Bet last week for the Players Championship — but he got caught in the Friday rain which required him to complete his second round in the worse weather conditions all weekend on Saturday morning which wiped out almost all the professionals who got stuck in the same predicament. If there is a silver lining for last year’s British Open champion, it is that he got the rest of the weekend off while avoiding the long Sunday-Monday finish — and he got a head start practicing and preparing for Innisbrook. Last week’s results are not a reason to jump off the Morikawa bandwagon now. He is still second on the PGA Tour in Ball-Striking, Par-4 Scoring, and Adjusted Scoring. He also ranks tenth on the tour in Par-3 Scoring this season which is important with the five Par-3s this week. In his previous 50 rounds before last week, he led the tour in Ball-Striking by gaining an average of +1.6 strokes versus the field from Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee to Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Morikawa’s weakness is with his blade — but he is steadily improving with his putter as he registered progressively better-putting numbers in each of his last three events which were a career-best before last week which I am just throwing out. He has also gained on the field in Fairways Hit in five of his last six events before last week. Furthermore, Morikawa leads the field this week in Shots-Gained over the last two years when playing on “tough courses” which is defined as +0.75 Relative-to-Par. He also ranks third in the field this week over the last two years when playing on courses that require less than the driver on many of the holes. Morikawa is linked with Dustin Johnson in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. A nine-under third round last week at the Players Championship helped Johnson earn a tie for ninth place. It was an encouraging result for the former number one player in the world who has not won a tournament in over 12 months — and his last PGA Tour victory was at the 2020 Masters. Before last week, Johnson had lost strokes relative to the field on Approach-the-Green in five of his previous six events. He had also lost strokes Off-the-Tee relative to the field in three of his previous six events before last week. Johnson has also struggled with his putter. Maybe Johnson flipped the switch last week — but his failure to make the cut at the Genesis Invitational last month in Los Angeles where he is the second-highest money winner was a red flag. Johnson’s best result here at Innisbrook was a tie for sixth place in 2019 — but he finished in just 48th place last year. Take Morikawa (7011) versus Johnson (7012) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-22 |
Collin Morikawa -105 v. Rory McIlroy |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 44 m |
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The Florida swing of the PGA Tour moves to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach where the Stadium Course will host the Players Championship. This is generally considered the proverbial “fifth” major on the PGA Tour with most of the top professionals in the world competing amongst the 144 golfers entered. This Par 72 Pete Dye-designed course consists of 7250 yards. Doglegs and water playing a role in the 17 of the 18 holes will limit what the pros can do off the tee — but some professionals will attempt to bully the course. The bigger challenge will be the weather with rain and wind expected — especially on Saturday. Given the latest weather reports, I avoided golfers teeing off late on Friday since they risked getting pushed into Saturday where the weather could blow up their score. The greens consist of Bermuda grass with an average of 5500 square feet. Accuracy and ball-shaping are essential skill-sets to handle a Dye-designed course. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is one of the most important metrics to consider this weekend.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Collin Morikawa who is listed at +1400 at DraftKings. Morikawa has registered four-straight top-seven finishes after he tied for second place at the PGA Genesis Invitational three weeks ago. Last year’s British Open champion is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks leads the PGA Tour in Ball-Striking, Par-4 Scoring, and Adjusted Scoring. In his last 50 rounds, he leads the tour in Ball-Striking by gaining an average of +1.6 strokes versus the field from Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee to Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Morikawa’s weakness is with his blade — but the rain will neutralize that disadvantage this week by softening and slowing down the greens. As it is, Morikawa is steadily improving with his putter as he registered progressively better-putting numbers in each of his last three events which is a career-best. He has also gained on the field in Fairways Hit in five of his last six events. Morikawa finished for 41st place last year in his debut at this tournament — but his Sunday round of 64 was the low score of the event. Morikawa is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McIlroy comes off a tie for 13th place last week at Bay Hill — but he shot a pair of 76s over the weekend which is concerning. McIlroy has lost strokes versus the field in either Shots-Gained: Putting or Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in seven of his last eight tournaments. Now McIlroy returns to TPC Sawgrass where he won this tournament in 2019 — but he missed the cut here by 10 strokes last year. Both of these players are initially scheduled for a tee-time on Friday at 7:51 AM ET. McIlroy remains one of the biggest names on the tour — but Morikawa is playing better. Take Morikawa (7009) versus McIlroy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-22 |
Chris Kirk v. Matthew Fitzpatrick -115 |
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71-74 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 12 m |
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The Florida swing of the PGA Tour moves to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach where the Stadium Course will host the Players Championship. This is generally considered the proverbial “fifth” major on the PGA Tour with most of the top professionals in the world competing amongst the 144 golfers entered. This Par 72 Pete Dye-designed course consists of 7250 yards. Doglegs and water playing a role in the 17 of the 18 holes will limit what the pros can do off the tee — but some professionals will attempt to bully the course. The bigger challenge will be the weather with rain and wind expected — especially on Saturday. Given the latest weather reports, I avoided golfers teeing off late on Friday since they risked getting pushed into Saturday where the weather could blow up their score. The greens consist of Bermuda grass with an average of 5500 square feet. Accuracy and ball-shaping are essential skill-sets to handle a Dye-designed course. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is one of the most important metrics to consider this weekend.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Matt Fitzpatrick who is listed at +4000 at DraftKings. Fitzpatrick comes off a tie for ninth place last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill while shooting under par of the weekend while most of the other pros were posting underwhelming numbers given the weather conditions. Fitzpatrick is in great form — he has four straight top-10 finishes and five-straight top-12s worldwide. TPC Sawgrass requires the professionals to use all the clubs in their bag — and Fitzpatrick is good in all aspects of his game. He ranks second on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He is also seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He might be the best putter on the tour on Bermuda greens. And he comes off a tie for ninth place at this event last season. Fitzpatrick is currently scheduled for 6:45 AM ET on Friday — so he is well-protected if things get significantly delayed going into Saturday. He is also well-versed in dealing with harsh weather conditions from his experience on the European Tour. Fitzpatrick is linked with Chris Kirk for Round One prop bets. Kirk comes off back-to-back top-10 finishes after his tie for fifth place at Bay Hill. The Georgia native and University of Georgia alum likes the Florida/Georgia swing of the tour — and he has made the cut in eight of his ten appearances at TPC Sawgrass. But Kirk has not done much at this tournament lately as he settled for 48th place last year after a 56th place and 46th place the previous two seasons. Kirk ranks only 58th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green this season — so his precision reaching the relatively small greens is not as strong as his peers (and certainly Fitzpatrick). Take Fitzpatrick (7186) versus Kirk (7185) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-22 |
Cameron Smith v. Daniel Berger -140 |
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1-0 |
Loss |
-140 |
4 h 12 m |
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The Florida swing of the PGA Tour moves to TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach where the Stadium Course will host the Players Championship. This is generally considered the proverbial “fifth” major on the PGA Tour with most of the top professionals in the world competing amongst the 144 golfers entered. This Par 72 Pete Dye-designed course consists of 7250 yards. Doglegs and water playing a role in the 17 of the 18 holes will limit what the pros can do off the tee — but some professionals will attempt to bully the course. The bigger challenge will be the weather with rain and wind expected — especially on Saturday. Given the latest weather reports, I avoided golfers teeing off late on Friday since they risked getting pushed into Saturday where the weather could blow up their score. The greens consist of Bermuda grass with an average of 5500 square feet. Accuracy and ball-shaping are essential skill-sets to handle a Dye-designed course. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is one of the most important metrics to consider this weekend.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Daniel Berger who is listed at +3000 to win this event at DraftKings. Any nagging concerns about Berger’s health after a bad back compelled him to withdraw at Pebble Beach earlier this season was erased two weeks ago in his fourth-place finish at the Honda Classic. Berger blew a five-shot lead on the Sunday of that event so he should have a chip on his shoulder this week. Berger has finished in the top-11 in six of his last 11 events. Berger is one of the best ball strikers on the tour. He ranks third on the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and he is fifth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He leads the field in his last 36 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. He is top-ten in the field in his last 36 rounds in Fairways Hit. Furthermore, Berger is a good overall driver when it comes to distance and accuracy. He is fifth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Good Drives. He prefers putting on Bermuda greens (versus Poa Annua). And he tends to handle the elements better than his peers. His two victories at TPC Southwind along with his top-five results at the Honda Classic include dealing with water-logged courses. Berger has a good course history at TPC Sawgrass with top top-nine finishes including last year. Berger is linked with Cam Smith in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Smith finished tied for 17th place here last year after posting top-12 results for his career on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around the Green and Shots-Gained: Putting. By definition, those were outlier performances for him which will be hard to replicate. Smith has lost strokes to the field in either Shots-Gained: Approach the Green or Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee in three of his last five events. His driver is a concern this week as he ranks just 95th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this season and 119th in Driving Accuracy — and the elements only compound this problem. Lastly, Smith has a late tee time on Friday of 12:45 PM ET — and with Round One now looking like it will be delayed, his second round is at high risk of being pushed into the perilous Saturday weather. Berger tees off at 7:29 AM ET on Friday. Take Berger (7032) versus Smith (7031) in Tournament Matchup props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-22 |
Marc Leishman -110 v. Adam Scott |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 20 m |
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The Florida swing of the PGA Tour continues this week by moving to the Bays Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7466 yards. The 120 professional golfers will have to manage very thick and tall rough. The putting surface consists of fast Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee helps — but ball-striking and safely getting on the green has been critical in past success with so many approach shots of more than 200 yards likely this week. This tournament has been rated as one of the top ten hardest on the PGA Tour for three straight seasons. Interestingly, there have been only three American winners of this tournament since its inception, although Tiger Woods bears responsibility for his lack of sharing the wealth. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Marc Leishman who is listed at +2800 odds to win this tournament at DraftKings. Leishman has an impressive track record at Bay Hill. He has six top-25 finishes in 12 trips here including winning the event in 2017 plus a second place in 2020, a third place in 2019, and a seventh place in 2018. Leishman claimed after lifting the championship trophy in 2017 that “it’s a course I love” — so he needs to be taken very seriously when in good form. And the Aussie is in great form right now after finishing tied for 15th place at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago. That was his third top-20 result in 2022 — and his sixth top-20 for the 2021-22 season. He has made all nine cuts of the PGA Tournaments he has played this season. Leishman is solid on all facets of the game — but he tends to better when distance helps. He ranks 33rd on the tour this season in Driving Distance — and he is one of the best in the world when dealing with the wind which can impact this event. Leishman ranks 29th this season Shots-Gained: Ball Striking. He is 30th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 32nd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. And to boot, Leishman is 15th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Putting. Leishman enters this tournament ranked number one on the tour in Par-3 Scoring this season — and success on the Par-3s has been critical for success at this event. While Tiger Woods was notorious for being a birdie machine on the Par-5s at this course when he was winning titles here, the last eight winners of this tournament have finished in the top-six in Par-3 Scoring — and seven of those winners finished in the top-four in Par-3 Scoring. Leishman also ranks third in the field with Shots-Gained: Total in the last five years at this tournament. Leishman is linked with Adam Scott for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. The 41-year-old last played at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago where he finished tied for fourth place. But Scott had not produced a result better than a tie for 37th in his previous three PGA Tour events. Scott remains one of the better players on the tour with his irons — but he is not elite in this area. He ranks 63rd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Ball Striking after ranking 127th in that metric for the 2020-21 season. He was 45th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year and has crept up to 28th in that statistic this season. But Scott can struggle with his Driving Accuracy — he ranks 183rd in that metric this season after placing 117th last season. That impacts his ability to get on the green as he ranks 71st in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee after ranking 136th last season. Frankly, Scott was a better course fit at the Riviera Country Club which was not as long, and offered more realistic opportunities to gain strokes from putting as he is one of the best pros with the blade on the tour. Scott has finished in third place two in his eleven trips to this event — but he missed the cut in his last appearance two years ago. He settled for 41st place in his previous time here in 2018 — and he has not done better than 12th place since 2015. Scott sometimes has motivation issues at the non-majors. While this is one of the “mid-majors” to use a college basketball term, this event probably means much more to Leishman given his past success here. Take Leishman (7025) versus Scott (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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