03-03-22 |
Will Zalatoris -120 v. Adam Scott |
|
68-68 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 19 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour continues this week by moving to the Bays Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7466 yards. The 120 professional golfers will have to manage very thick and tall rough. The putting surface consists of fast Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee helps — but ball-striking and safely getting on the green has been critical in past success with so many approach shots of more than 200 yards likely this week. This tournament has been rated as one of the top ten hardest on the PGA Tour for three straight seasons. Interestingly, there have been only three American winners of this tournament since its inception, although Tiger Woods bears responsibility for his lack of sharing the wealth.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Will Zalatoris who is listed at +2500 odds at DraftKings. Zalatoris has quickly established himself as one of the best ball strikers on the tour. He leads the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He leads the field in both his last 24 rounds and his last 12 rounds in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He also leads the tour on Proximity Beyond 200 Yards from the hole. He also ranks second in the field over his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Ball Striking which measures Off the Tee and Approach (but omits Shots-Gained: Around the Green when compared to Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green). Zalatoris is also fourth on the tour this season in Par-3 Scoring which is an important component this week. While Tiger Woods was notorious for being a birdie machine on the Par-5s at this course when he was winning titles here, the last eight winners of this tournament have finished in the top-six in Par-3 Scoring — and seven of those winners finished in the top-four in Par-3 Scoring. The flaw in Zalatoris’ game is with his putter — but that has not stopped from a tie for 26th place at the Genesis Invitational two weeks that was preceded by settling for second place in the extra hole shootout at Torrey Pines and tie for sixth place at The American Express. At the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles two weeks ago, he failed to gain strokes on the field from his blade for the sixth straight tournament — yet he continues to score very well. If — and when — Zalatoris can just be above average with his putter, he is going to be very tough to beat. His last three positive net results with his putter generated an average Shots-Gained of 3.3 shots versus the field — all three of those occasions were on Bermuda greens (as opposed to the bentgrass that is featured on the tour courses in California earlier this year. Elite putting has not been the key to success at this tournament. Only two of the last nine winners finished in the top-five in putting for the week — and the remaining seven winners were no better than the 13th in putting with five of the winners ranking 22nd or worse in putting for the week. One of the reasons that putting is less important this week is that this course is not a birdie-fest — the pros are simply too far away when they get on the green to thrive off one-putts. Zalatoris demonstrated enormous potential in his rookie season last year at the most challenging courses — he finished sixth at the US Open, eighth at the PGA Championship, and second at the Masters. He finished tied for tenth in his debut at this tournament last year — and he considers Arnold Palmer one of his heroes with a personal letter from him being a prized possession. This tournament is a big deal to him — and we may be running out of time to ever get Zalatoris at a price in the mid-2000s ever again. Zalatoris is linked with Adam Scott for Round One head-to-head props. The 41-year-old last played at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago where he finished tied for fourth place. But Scott had not produced a result better than a tie for 37th in his previous three PGA Tour events. Scott remains one of the better players on the tour with his irons — but he is not elite in this area. He ranks 63rd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Ball Striking after ranking 127th in that metric for the 2020-21 season. He was 45th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green last year and has crept up to 28th in that statistic this season. But Scott can struggle with his Driving Accuracy — he ranks 183rd in that metric this season after placing 117th last season. That impacts his ability to get on the green as he ranks 71st in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee after ranking 136th last season. Frankly, Scott was a better course fit at the Riviera Country Club which was not as long, and offered more realistic opportunities to gain strokes from putting as he is one of the best pros with the blade on the tour. Scott has finished in third place two in his eleven trips to this event — but he missed the cut in his last appearance two years ago. He settled for 41st place in his previous time here in 2018 — and he has not done better than 12th place since 2015. Scott sometimes has motivation issues at the non-majors. While this is one of the “mid-majors” to use a college basketball term, this event probably means much more to Zalatoris. Take Zalatoris (7121) versus Scott (7122) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-03-22 |
Max Homa v. Keith Mitchell -118 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-118 |
2 h 20 m |
Show
|
The Florida swing of the PGA Tour continues this week by moving to the Bays Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This is a Par-72 event consisting of 7466 yards. The 120 professional golfers will have to manage very thick and tall rough. The putting surface consists of fast Bermuda greens. Distance off the tee helps — but ball-striking and safely getting on the green has been critical in past success with so many approach shots of more than 200 yards likely this week. This tournament has been rated as one of the top ten hardest on the PGA Tour for three straight seasons. Interestingly, there have been only three American winners of this tournament since its inception, although Tiger Woods bears responsibility for his lack of sharing the wealth.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Keith Mitchell who is listed at +4500 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Mitchell was our Top Overlay Bet last week — and his Sunday round of 68 moved him to a respectable tie for ninth place at the Honda Classic. That was his third straight top-ten finish on the PGA Tour which is why he remains attractive at these long odds. In five starts in 2022, Mitchell has finished in the top-12 four times in five starts since the start of the new year. He is third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this season — and he is fourth in the field over his last 24 rounds in that metric. His Ball-Striking is also quite good — besides ranking tied for 18th in that metric this season, he is fourth in the field in that statistic since the start of 2022. Additionally, Mitchell ranks 15th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. Mitchell also has a good track record at Bay Hill. In three starts here, he finished tied for sixth place in 2019 before a tie for fifth place in 2020. He settled for a 43rd place last year — but he is in much better form now. Mitchell is linked with Max Homa with Tournament head-to-head matchups. Homa enjoyed success in California with a tie for 14th and a tie for 10th place — but his good scores out west can be credited to a hot putter. Golfers who are overachieving because of their putting are volatile since there is a lot of variance with success with the blade. Now Homa moves from putting on bentgrass to Bermuda greens. And while ranking 31st in Shots-Gained: Putting, he was 118th in that metric last season — so the Regression Gods may be visiting. Homa is not elite with his ball-striking. He has improved from ranking 69th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last season to 50th in that metric this year — but his approach game has worsened. After finishing 40th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last season, he has dropped to 72nd this year. He is also just 73rd in Ball Striking. Take Mitchell (7032) versus Homa (7031) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-22 |
Keith Mitchell -135 v. Rickie Fowler |
|
71-72 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 18 m |
Show
|
The California swing of the PGA Tour concluded with the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last week — the tour now moves to Florida to begin its trek up the state and to Augusta National for the Masters next month. The Florida swing begins in Palm Beach Gardens at the Champion Course at PGA National Resort and Spa. This Par-70 golf course was the third hardest non-major on the tour last season. Eleven of the last 15 winners at this tournament failed to register a double-digit score under par when raising the championship trophy. Consisting of only 7125 yards, the challenge for the pros this week is the array of various hazards. Fifteen of the holes have water in play. There are 67 sand traps. And the wind is always an issue coming off the Atlantic Ocean — winds of 30 miles per hour are expected on Thursday with little let-up possible through the weekend. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. Previous success on this course has been a valuable component to the profile of the Sunday winner: eight of the last 11 champions had previously finished in 13th place or better at this tournament.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Keith Mitchell who is listed at +3000 at DraftKings to win this tournament. Mitchell won the Honda Classic in 2019 — and he is returning to Palm Beach in perhaps the best form in his career. He began the new year by finishing tied for seventh place at the Sony Open. He did take a step back two weeks later by missing the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open — but he rebounded with a 12th place finish at Pebble Beach before a 10th place result at the Phoenix Open. In his last eight tournaments, Mitchell has three top-10 results and another two top-12s. Mitchell is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He ranks fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking over his last 24 rounds. He is 15th on the tour this season on Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Mitchell also ranks third on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee which is a good measurement of the distance and accuracy elements with the driver. Mitchell is linked with Rickie Fowler in Round One head-to-head props. Course history might trick some into investing in Fowler this week — he won this tournament in 2017 and then finished in second place in 2019. But the nostalgia tour for one of the media’s favorite pros has not seen good results this year. Fowler missed his first three cuts on California courses he was supposed to thrive at before breaking through by competing on the weekend last week in Los Angeles before finishing tied for 55th place at the Genesis Invitational. Maybe Fowler flips the switch that Jim Nantz has breathlessly pined for this week — but the analytics indicate this would be a radical improvement in his play. Fowler ranks 113th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. He is 84th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this season and 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. And in his last two trips here at the PGA National, Fowler has missed the cut and settled for a 65th place weekend finish. Take Mitchell (7145) versus Fowler (7146) in Round One head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-22 |
J.J. Spaun v. Christiaan Bezuidenhout -144 |
|
71-69 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
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The California swing of the PGA Tour concluded with the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last week — the tour now moves to Florida to begin its trek up the state and to Augusta National for the Masters next month. The Florida swing begins in Palm Beach Gardens at the Champion Course at PGA National Resort and Spa. This Par-70 golf course was the third hardest non-major on the tour last season. Eleven of the last 15 winners at this tournament failed to register a double-digit score under par when raising the championship trophy. Consisting of only 7125 yards, the challenge for the pros this week is the array of various hazards. Fifteen of the holes have water in play. There are 67 sand traps. And the wind is always an issue coming off the Atlantic Ocean — winds of 30 miles per hour are expected on Thursday with little let-up possible through the weekend. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. Previous success on this course has been a valuable component to the profile of the Sunday winner: eight of the last 11 champions had previously finished in 13th place or better at this tournament.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Christiaan Bezuidenhout who DraftKings lists at +5000 to win this tournament. This South African has been lurking with three top-17 finishes in seven events in the United States in his career. He has had three wins on the DP World Tour (the main European professional tour) in the last three years. He has won by large margins at courses considered very difficult to play — he thrives in tournaments that require elite ball-striking and a high level of precision in his short game. Bezuidenhout is third in the field when playing on hard courses where the average score is at least +0.75 relative to par in the last two years — and he is fourth in the field this week in overperforming on these courses when compared to his baseline numbers. Bezuidenhout is also third in the field over the last two years in Shots-Gained: Per Round when playing on courses that play “less than the driver” on a majority of the holes — and he ranks 15th in the field this week in the last two years when overperforming on these courses when compared to his baseline numbers. Bezuidenhout has not played this course in his professional career — but he has top two-20s in two appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational that takes place in Florida in the last two years. There is a reason why we are getting 50-1 odds. Bezuidenhout performs well on Bermuda greens as well — he leads the field this week in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda in the last two years. Bezuidenhout is linked with J.J. Spaun in Round One head-to-head props. The California native played well on the west coast swing with three top-34 or better finishes before missing the cut last week at the Genesis Invitational. The 31-year-old does not have a victory on the PGA Tour — and his profile does not match up well with this event. Spaun ranks just 101st on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking 151st in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and 100th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Spaun finished 21st at this tournament in his maiden event here in 2017 but he missed the next year and missed the cut again last year in his third appearance here. I expect the Los Angeles-born Spaun to see the quality of his game drop with the tour now in Florida — and Bezuidenhout has been on my radar since his top-31 finishes at the PGA Championship and US Open before a tie for 16th place at the Olympics in August. This could be a breakout year in the US for the 27-year-old. Take Bezuidenhout (7126) versus Spain (7125) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-24-22 |
Billy Horschel -127 v. Shane Lowry |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-127 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
The California swing of the PGA Tour concluded with the Genesis Invitational in Los Angeles last week — the tour now moves to Florida to begin its trek up the state and to Augusta National for the Masters next month. The Florida swing begins in Palm Beach Gardens at the Champion Course at PGA National Resort and Spa. This Par-70 golf course was the third hardest non-major on the tour last season. Eleven of the last 15 winners at this tournament failed to register a double-digit score under par when raising the championship trophy. Consisting of only 7125 yards, the challenge for the pros this week is the array of various hazards. Fifteen of the holes have water in play. There are 67 sand traps. And the wind is always an issue coming off the Atlantic Ocean — winds of 30 miles per hour are expected on Thursday with little let-up possible through the weekend. The putting surface is Bermuda grass. Previous success on this course has been a valuable component to the profile of the Sunday winner: eight of the last 11 champions had previously finished in 13th place or better at this tournament.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Billy Horschel who is listed at +1800 odds at DraftKings. Horschel has been one of the most consistent golfers on the tour — he has made every cut since last year’s US Open and has only missed two cuts in the last 12 months. He has nine straight top-40 finishes as well — and he has finished top-23 or better in each of his last four tournaments. He comes off very encouraging results on the west coast swing by following up tied for 11th place at Torrey Pines with a tie for sixth place at the Phoenix Open two weeks ago. All four of his rounds in Phoenix were under 70 — and he led the field in Greens-In-Regulation which will be vitally important this week to avoid all the water and sand hazards. I was worried about Horschel perhaps overperforming expectations recently due to some unsustainable putting and chip saves around the green. He lost 12.4 strokes versus the field in Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green on the west coast. On the other hand, those California courses are not where Horschel really thrives. He is a Florida native who prefers putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks fourth in the field in that last two years in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda grass. Frankly, Horschel may have been underachieving with his short irons out west — he ranks 209th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season after finishing the 2020-21 season ranked 146th in that metric. Horschel ranks 13th on the tour this year on Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 2nd in Shots-Gained: Putting this year — two skills that will be valuable this week. Horschel is also 34th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee after ranking 35th in that metric last season. The driver is important this week — while long bombers can’t just grip-it and rip-it, the balance between accuracy with driving over trouble is a skill that past winners have exploited. The proof is in the pudding for Horschel — he has 4th place, 6th place, and a tie for 16th place in his last five visits here since 2016. Horschel is linked with Shane Lowry in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. At +2200 odds, I looked at Lowry closely as a possible Top Overlay selection. He is a Juniper resident coming off four straight top-25 finishes on the DP World Tour. I do worry about Lowry’s accuracy off the tee — he ranked 114th last season in Driving Accuracy by hitting the fairway just 59.1% of the time. And I don’t love that this is his first PGA Tour event in 2022 as he begins to prepare for the Master’s next month. But what finally turned me off Lowry was his solid but unspectacular course history here. Lowry has made the cut in all four of his appearances at PGA National — but his best finish was a 21st place in 2020. He was only 36th place last year — and he has failed to crack that top-13 threshold that has separated eight of the previous 11 winners. I like Lowry — but Horschel should outscore him this week. Take Horschel (7017) versus Lowry (7018) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-17-22 |
Dustin Johnson +100 v. Rory McIlroy |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
3 h 13 m |
Show
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The top-11 golfers in the world headline the 120 professionals that will compete in the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week. This tournament was top-five on the tour last year for being the toughest in the following categories: Fairways Hit, Greens-In-Regulation, and Proximity to the Green. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7322 yards. Two Par-5s are on the course that are both manageable — but it will be the long Par-4s that really challenge this week. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass registering 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens measure over 6500 square feet with intricate complexes that reward past experience.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Dustin Johnson who is listed at +1600 at DraftKings. Johnson is the second all-time money winner at this tournament. He has registered a top-16 finish here in eight straight years including a first-place finish in 2017. He also has a pair of second-place results along with a third and a fourth-place at this event. He leads the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green at this tournament since 2017. Johnson took some extended time off during the holidays — but he demonstrated very encouraging form in his return to the PGA Tour last month at Torrey Pines when he finished tied for 25th place. He gained +8.3 strokes Tee-to-Green that week with strong play off-the-tee and in his approach in what was his best ball-striking in a year. He followed that up with a tie for eighth place at the Saudi Invitational. Johnson was the number one player in the world a year ago before slumping in the spring and summer. He looks to be back. Johnson is linked with Rory McIlroy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. This is McIlroy’s debut on the PGA Tour this year after finishing tied for 12th place and tied for third place in his last two events worldwide. McIlroy is great — but I do worry about his ball-striking in getting on the green when compared to the top players on the tour. He ranked 35th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 71st in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green — and this lack of precision could be a challenge on the complex large greens this week. McIlroy missed the cut here last year. Take Johnson (7009) versus McIlroy (7010) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-17-22 |
Viktor Hovland -110 v. Will Zalatoris |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 53 m |
Show
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The top-11 golfers in the world headline the 120 professionals that will compete in the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week. This tournament was top-five on the tour last year for being the toughest in the following categories: Fairways Hit, Greens-In-Regulation, and Proximity to the Green. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7322 yards. Two Par-5s are on the course that are both manageable — but it will be the long Par-4s that really challenge this week. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass registering 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens measure over 6500 square feet with intricate complexes that reward past experience.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is priced at +2500 at DraftKings to win the tournament. Hovland was our Top Overlay pick last week at the Phoenix Open but he disappointed by missing the cut. Maybe it is the course or the rabid crowds that through Hovland off since he has not made the cut in either of his appearances that TPC Scottsdale. Hovland's struggles were off the tee — he missed six straight fairways off the tee at one point. I do like to take pros coming off a missed cut since they benefit from getting the weekend while being chippy from the subpar effort. He entered last week with three victories in his previous five tournaments worldwide, moving him up to the number three ranking in the world. Hovland is fourth in the field this week in Shots-Gained: Ball-Striking in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks eighth in the field in putting on Poa Annua since 2020. Hovland is linked with Will Zalatoris in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Zalatoris has rested since finishing in second place at Torrey Pines. Zalatoris may be the best golfer on the tour who has yet to win an event now that Scottie Scheffler earned his first victory last week in Phoenix. But the weakness in Zalatoris’ game is his blade — he ranks 148th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. I don’t love his chances to excel this week on these difficult greens — especially since this is his only second professional appearance here. Take Hovland (7021) versus Zalatoris (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-17-22 |
Bubba Watson -118 v. Max Homa |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-118 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
\The top-11 golfers in the world headline the 120 professionals that will compete in the PGA Genesis Invitational at the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles this week. This tournament was top-five on the tour last year for being the toughest in the following categories: Fairways Hit, Greens-In-Regulation, and Proximity to the Green. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7322 yards. Two Par-5s are on the course that are both manageable — but it will be the long Par-4s that really challenge this week. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass registering 12 1/2 feet on the stimpmeter. The greens measure over 6500 square feet with intricate complexes that reward past experience.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Bubba Watson who is listed at +3500 at DraftKings to win the tournament. Watson always needs to be considered when playing either at the Travelers, the Masters, or here — seven of his ten career victories on the PGA Tour have been at one of those three tournaments. Lefties tend to perform well at this course given the course layout — and Watson has won this event three times with his last victory taking place in 2018. He has finished in the top-20 eight times in his ten starts at this course. He is also in great form right now. Watson followed up a second-place finish at the Saudi Invitational with a tie for 14th place last week at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. All four of his rounds last week finished under 70 — and he was ninth in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Watson is linked with Max Homa in Tournament head-to-head matchups. Homa won this tournament last year — but we will fade him in Los Angeles this week with the extra responsibilities of being the defending champion. Homa is in good form right now coming off a tie for 14th place last week in Phoenix — but he is not elite. He ranks 66th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while also ranking 86th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He also ranks 50th in Driving Distance and 46th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. In this prop of past champions at the Riv, I prefer the form and pedigree of Watson. Take Watson (7031) versus Homa (7032) in tournament matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-22 |
Hideki Matsuyama -115 v. Scottie Scheffler |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
4 h 14 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 17 of the top-30 players in the world will take part in this event featuring 132 entrants. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards with three Par-5 holes. The Bermuda greens include a Bentgrass blend that measures 12 feet on the stimpmeter for a putting surface considered fast and firm. This tournament sticks out for its reputation for raucous crowds.
Our Best Bet on the golfer most likely to win this tournament is on Hideki Matsuyama who is listed at +1200 (all odds reference the DraftKings number) to lift the first place trophy. Matsuyama is a two-time winner here who is the second all-time money winner. He won this tournament in 2016 and 2017. His Tee-to-Green game may be the best on the tour — and he is very tough to beat when he is in form. Winning the Masters last year might have represented his breakthrough into the very top-tier in the world. He is the only golfer on the tour who already has racked up two victories for the 2021-22 season with his wins at the Zozo Championship last fall followed up by his first place at the PGA Sony Open last month. He is the current FedEx points leader on the tour as well. Matsuyama is linked with Scottie Scheffler in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Scheffler has two top-25 finishes so far for the 2021-22 campaign after finishing tied for 20th place at the Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. But Scheffler has yet to register his first victory on the PGA Tour in his career. Nine of the last ten winners at this event have either previously won a major tournament or the Player’s Championship. Scheffler’s ranking of 123rd in Driving Accuracy is also cause for concern at this track. Take Matsuyama (7017) versus Scheffler (7018) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-22 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Viktor Hovland +1.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 20 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 17 of the top-30 players in the world will take part in this event featuring 132 entrants. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards with three Par-5 holes. The Bermuda greens include a Bentgrass blend that measures 12 feet on the stimpmeter for a putting surface considered fast and firm. This tournament sticks out for its reputation for raucous crowds.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Viktor Hovland who is listed at +1600 to win the tournament. Hovland took last week off after winning the tournament in Abu Dhabi — so he should be rested and ready for this event on the PGA Tour. With three victories in his last five tournaments worldwide, Hovland has moved up to ranking number three in the world. Shots-Gained: Approach the Green is an important metric that helps to define success at the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course. Hovland ranks fourth in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks second in the field over his last 24 rounds in Birdie Opportunities. He also ranks 10th on the Tour so far for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He missed the cut last year in his first appearance — but that helps explain why we can get the number three player in the world at a +1600 price. Hovland is linked with Patrick Cantlay in Tournament Matchup props. Cantlay connected on his fifth straight top-ten finish last week with a fourth-place result at the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am — but his ranking 107th in the world in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green could hold him back this week. This is also his professional debut at this tournament — and the loud crowds can be unsettling to some professionals not used to this environment. Still, Cantlay is the 2021 PGA Tour Player of the Year — which is why we can get Hovland in this spot at +1.5 strokes at a price below my -150 threshold. That is my recommendation if can get it (but taking Hovland straight-up versus Cantlay is also fine). Take Hovland (7012) +1.5 strokes versus Cantlay (7011) in Tournament Matchup props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-10-22 |
Bubba Watson +100 v. Brooks Koepka |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
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The PGA Tour moves to the TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. 17 of the top-30 players in the world will take part in this event featuring 132 entrants. This is a Par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards with three Par-5 holes. The Bermuda greens include a Bentgrass blend that measures 12 feet on the stimpmeter for a putting surface considered fast and firm. This tournament sticks out for its reputation for raucous crowds.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Bubba Watson who is listed at DraftKings at +4000 to win the tournament. Watson had only competed in two exhibition events in December since his last tournament but in August — but the veteran demonstrated he is in great form by finishing in second place at the Saudi Invitational last week. Now he returns to the Phoenix Open where he has made 13 cuts in his 15 appearances. Watson has finished in the top-five five times and he has ten top-25s in his career here. TPC Scottsdale is probably where Watson has his best course history for a tournament he has yet to win — but he has been lurking two of his top-ten finishes in his last three visits. Distance and accuracy off the tee are important barometers here — and Watson finished ninth on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Watson is linked with Brooks Koepka for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Koepka is a two-time winner here including last year — but he is simply not in great form right now. He has missed the cut in three of his last five events including at the Farmers Insurance two weeks ago. He ranks 143rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, 165th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and 172nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Maybe Koepka can flip the switch for this non-major, but that has not been his track record. Take Watson (7031) versus Koepka (7032) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-22 |
Justin Rose -115 v. Mackenzie Hughes |
|
70-71 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
The California swing of the PGA Tour moves to Pebble Beach this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs are back competing this week after not taking part in last year’s event because of COVID restrictions. 156 entrants will rotate playing at three courses through Saturday: the Par-72 Pebble Beach Golf Links; the Par-72 Spyglass Hill Golf Course; the Par-71 Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. The top sixty players make the cut for the final round on Sunday back at the Pebble Beach course. The last five winning scores have ranged from -17 under par to -19 under par. All three courses feature Poa Annua greens. All three courses are short given PGA standards. The Pebble Beach Golf Links consists of 6972 yards.
Our Top Overlay Bet with the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Justin Rose who is listed at +1800 to win this tournament. Rose comes off a tie for sixth place at Torrey Pines last week on the strength of a final round of 64. In the two rounds where ShotLink was used to measure the deeper metrics, Rose was tied for fourth in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which will help him this week. Rose is one of the best putters in the world — and he thrives on these shorter courses. He is tenth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total on Par 72s under 7200 yards. He also ranks second in the field this week in scoring on coastal courses over the last two years — and he is third in the field in his improvement versus his baseline numbers when competing at a coastal course. Rose decided to bypass the Saudi Invitational this week where he finished in second place last year to return to compete at this event for the first time in five years. He last played Pebble Beach in 2019 when he finished in third place at the US Open. He finished tied for a sixth-place here in 2016. Rose is linked with Mackenzie Hughes for Round One head-to-head matchups. Hughes missed the cut last week at Torrey Pines. While missing the cut can make me bullish on a pro the next week, Hughes made me dealing with rust issues since it was his first tournament since late November. I worry about Hughes’ ball-striking. After ranking 170th last year in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, he is currently 89th in that metric this season. Hughes finished just 171st last season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Hughes did finish in 10th place in his first appearance at Pebble Beach in 2017 — but he has missed the cut in his last three appearances. Take Rose (7143) versus Hughes (7144) in Round One head-to-head matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-22 |
Minwoo Lee v. Matthew Jones -115 |
|
69-76 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
The California swing of the PGA Tour moves to Pebble Beach this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs are back competing this week after not taking part in last year’s event because of COVID restrictions. 156 entrants will rotate playing at three courses through Saturday: the Par-72 Pebble Beach Golf Links; the Par-72 Spyglass Hill Golf Course; the Par-71 Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. The top sixty players make the cut for the final round on Sunday back at the Pebble Beach course. The last five winning scores have ranged from -17 under par to -19 under par. All three courses feature Poa Annua greens. All three courses are short given PGA standards. The Pebble Beach Golf Links consists of 6972 yards.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-10 favorites is on Matt Jones who is listed at +6500 to win this event at DraftKings. Jones finished tied for third place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions to begin 2022 but he has since missed the cut in his last two events including at Torrey Pines last week. The Aussie should be rested and very motivated to reverse his recent fortune. Jones is fantastic in getting out of trouble — he ranks fourth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. He also ranks a solid 33rd on the tour for the 2021-22 season in Shots-Gained: Total. He plays well at Pebble Beach where he has four top-15 finishes in 14 appearances. The veteran finished tied for a tenth place here in 2010 before a tie for fifth place in 2020. Jones is linked with Min Woo Lee in Round One head-to-head matchups. Lee is still trying to find his mark on the PGA Tour. The 23-year-old last competed at World Golf Championship FedEx St. Jude Invitational where he finished in 62nd place. Lee competed at this event last year for the first time — he missed the cut. Take Jones (7138) versus Lee (7144) in Round One head-to-head matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-03-22 |
Jordan Spieth +106 v. Jason Day |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
106 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
The California swing of the PGA Tour moves to Pebble Beach this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs are back competing this week after not taking part in last year’s event because of COVID restrictions. 156 entrants will rotate playing at three courses through Saturday: the Par-72 Pebble Beach Golf Links; the Par-72 Spyglass Hill Golf Course; the Par-71 Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. The top sixty players make the cut for the final round on Sunday back at the Pebble Beach course. The last five winning scores have ranged from -17 under par to -19 under par. All three courses feature Poa Annua greens. All three courses are short given PGA standards. The Pebble Beach Golf Links consists of 6972 yards.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Jordan Spieth who is listed at +1600 at DraftKings. Even when Spieth was enduring his multi-year slump that he has since corrected over the last year, he was still finding consistent success at Pebble Beach. Spieth won this tournament in 2017 and finished tied for third place last year. He has made all nine cuts when competing here. Spieth thrives on shorter courses that do not reward the big hitters on the tour. He ranks third in the field over the last two years in Par-72s that are no more than 7200 yards in length — and he is also third in this category in the field over the last 24 rounds here. He opened 2022 with a tie for 21st place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions — but he then missed the cut last week at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. I like siding with golfers who missed the cut the previous week because they come in with a little more rest but with a chip on their shoulder with something to prove. Spieth’s comeback tour last year featured nine top-ten finishes including winning the Valero Open and a second place at the British Open. Spieth is linked with Jason Day for head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Day is intriguing because of his great course history at Pebble Beach. He has made all 12 cuts when competing at this event with 10 top-15 finishes. And Day comes in after tying for third place at Torrey Pines for the PGA Farmers Insurance. But Day faltered down the stretch with bogeys on the 16th and 17th holes to ruin his chances of winning on Sunday. I am usually comfortable fading Day when his value rises with the market responding to the name value he offers. Day is still considered one of the best in the world with his blade — but after finishing just 95th in Shots-Gained: Putting last season, he is just 66th in Shots-Gained: Putting so far for the 2021-22 campaign. The approach is important at this event as well — but after ranking 118th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last year, he has dropped to 138th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season. Day is not even ball-striking particularly well — he ranks 157th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season. The last time Day won a tournament was a skins event in 2019. Take Spieth (7007) versus Day (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Tony Finau v. Xander Schauffele -120 |
|
67-68 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance. This regular stop on the tour did double duty last year with the South Course hosting the US Open. At 7765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the tour. It features poa annua grass on the putting surface. The North Course is less of a challenge with it being just 7258 yards with bent grass on the greens. The professionals will play both courses before the field is cut on Friday. This event is starting a day earlier than the traditional Thursday Round Ones in order to accommodate a prime-time finish on the east coast on Saturday while avoiding the television behemoth that is the NFL Conference Championship Games on Sunday.
Our Best Bet to win the tournament is Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1400 at DraftKings. There is a compelling case to be made for Jon Rahm to win this event after winning for the second time here last summer when he bested the field at the US Open. But at +600 odds, that is an underlay price — so I am bypassing him simply out of risk/reward principles. Schauffele has always been intriguing at Torrey Pines since he grew up down the road in San Diego — but his track record at this event was simply not good before last year. Schauffele pulled it together by finishing second at the Farmers Insurance Open last January before tying for 7th place here at the US Open in the summer. He ended the 2020-21 season strong by winning the Gold Medal at the Olympics and posting the top four-round score at the PGA Tour Championship at East Point in Atlanta (just east of the old Hollywood Sports offices). He handles fast greens well. The poa annua greens on the South Course register at 12.5 feet on the stimpmeter — he ranks second in the field on fast greens (defined as at least 12 feet on the stimpmeter). Schauffele also ranks sixth in the field when playing on “tough courses” in the last two years (tough courses is defined as one where the average score is at least +0.75 relative to par). He should be rested and ready for this tournament after finished tied for 12th place to begin the month in Hawai’i at the Sentry Tournament of Champions where all four of his rounds were in the 60s. He played a ton of practice rounds here last year in preparation for the US Open — so he should come in hot today. Schauffele is linked with Tony Finau for Round One head-to-head props. Finau is fine — he has made the cut in all seven of his appearances here and he comes in with good form with 16 red numbers in his 18 rounds. But Finau’s putting continues to hold him back — he ranks 211th on the tour in 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Putting. Finau does better on longer courses — but Schauffele and him open today on the shorter North Course so Finau’s driver will not be as valuable for this prop bet. Finau also ranks 208th this season in the important ball-striking Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green metric. Take Schauffele (7148) versus Finau (7147) in Round One head-to-head props. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Matthew Wolff +110 v. Maverick McNealy |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance. This regular stop on the tour did double duty last year with the South Course hosting the US Open. At 7765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the tour. It features poa annua grass on the putting surface. The North Course is less of a challenge with it being just 7258 yards with bent grass on the greens. The professionals will play both courses before the field is cut on Friday. This event is starting a day earlier than the traditional Thursday Round Ones in order to accommodate a prime-time finish on the east coast on Saturday while avoiding the television behemoth that is the NFL Conference Championship Games on Sunday.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Matthew Wolff who is listed at +5000 to win this tournament at DraftKings. Wolff was our Top Overlay Bet last week for the American Express — but he opened the event with a round of 78 to take him out of the competition. He rebounded on Friday with a round of 67 before shooting even par on Saturday and missing the Sunday cut. I like investing in golfers who missed the cut the previous week — they enter their next event relatively rested with a chip on their shoulder from the disappointing performance. Wolff has a good personal history when responding to adversity. He won the 3M Open in 2019 after missing the cut the previous week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. The next year, he finished second at the Rocket Mortgage after missing the cut at the Travelers Championship. Wolff remains a candidate for a breakout campaign this season after overcoming a difficult 2021 on-and-off the golf course. After missing the cut at the Masters, Wolff took a few months off from the tour — but he returned in the fall in strong form by making all four cuts in his four events including a second-place at the Shriners and a tie for fifth at Mayakoba. He may have been rusty last week since it was his first event since mid-November. Wolff is intriguing here because of his driver — he ranks second in the field in Driving Distance in his last 24 rounds. He also ranks third in the field in his last 24 rounds on Par-5s with a distance in the 550 to 600-yard range. Wolff also ranks sixth in the field this week in overperformance relative to his baseline scores when playing on “tough courses” defined as when the average score is at least +0.75 strokes relative to par. Wolff is linked with Maverick McNealy in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. McNealy has two second-place finishes in his career on the tour — but he has yet to win an event. He comes off a tie for 27th place two weeks ago in Hawai’i at the Sony Open. He has been solid as of late with each of the last five tournaments placing in 38th place or better — but he has not cracked a top ten in those efforts. McNealy is not a big striker — he ranked 77th in Driving Distance in 2020-21. He was also just 99th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last year. His short game is not his strength either. After ranking 151st in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last season, he is 46th in that metric this season. He was 83rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting last season — and he is 87th in that metric for 2021-22. McNealy missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open last year and did not compete in the US Open. Take Wolff (7043) versus McNealy (7044) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck — Frank.
|
01-26-22 |
Dustin Johnson +100 v. Sam Burns |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance. This regular stop on the tour did double duty last year with the South Course hosting the US Open. At 7765 yards, the South Course is the longest on the tour. It features poa annua grass on the putting surface. The North Course is less of a challenge with it being just 7258 yards with bent grass on the greens. The professionals will play both courses before the field is cut on Friday. This event is starting a day earlier than the traditional Thursday Round Ones in order to accommodate a prime-time finish on the east coast on Saturday while avoiding the television behemoth that is the NFL Conference Championship Games on Sunday.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their price is on Dustin Johnson, listed at +2500 odds to win the Farmers Insurance Open at DraftKings. It is not often that we can grab this former number one player in the world at a price of +2000 or better. Johnson’s odds have dropped because he has not played in three months since a middling tie for 45th place at the CJ Cup. Johnson had an off-year by his high standards — yet he still finished the 2020-21 season second in Scoring Average. He followed up a tie for 6th place at the BMW Championship with an 8th place result at the PGA Tour Championship in Atlanta — so it is not like he has fallen off completely. He is a threat here particularly because of his driver — he leads the field in Driving Distance in his last 50 rounds. He is also third in the field in his last 50 rounds in Bogey Avoidance. He has been solid at Torrey Pines with six made cuts in nine trips including three top-20 results. He finished tied for 19th place at the US Open here last summer. With 24 victories on the PGA Tour including two majors, I am comfortable taking my chances that he will not be rusty at this nice price. Johnson is linked with Sam Burns in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Burns enjoyed a breakout campaign last year with two wins on the tour. His rise may have started at this event last year when he was two strokes behind the lead after Day Three before stumbling out of the gate on Sunday with a double-bogey before three more bogeys to fall to a tie for 18th place. Burns had not finished better than 40th place before that result — and he missed the cut at the US Open at Torrey Pines later in June. Burns prefers putting on Bermuda greens — he is not as adept on poa annua putting surfaces. Burns can struggle with his blade — he ranks 92nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Take Johnson (7017) versus Burns (7018) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
Sungjae Im -128 v. Abraham Ancer |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 8 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves from Hawai’i to California for The American Express in La Quinta, California. The competition will take place on three golf courses for the first three days at the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the LA Quinta Country Club. After three first three rounds where the 156 professionals played each course, the cut will take for Sunday for the top 65 golfers (plus ties) with the final round taking place at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course. Winning scores have been in the -20s for 14 straight years at this tournament.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Sung-Jae Im who is listed at +1800 at DraftKings. Im opened 2022 with a tie for 15th place at Kapalua two weeks ago before missing the cut last week at Waialae. I like backing golfers coming off missed cuts because they come in relatively rested with a chip on their shoulder to redeem themselves from their disappointing performance. The 23-year old has already defined himself as one of the top iron men on the tour. Im ranks fifth in the FedEx standings for the 2021-22 season. He has an all-around good game. He ranks seventh in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Total this year. He also complements his ball-striking skills with some savvy in he gets in trouble — he is 11th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. Im can also put up a big number this week — he is fifth on the tour in Eagles Rate. He has three top-12 results in his three prior events here. Im is linked with Abraham Ancer for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Ancer also missed the cut last week — but his hopes of a big bounce-back appear less likely given his form not being quite as sharp as Im’s this season. Ancer began 2022 with a tie for 35th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions Kapalua. Ancer does have a good history here with a tie for fifth place in 2021 and second place in 2020 — but his ball-striking has been off so far this season. Ancer is 200th on the tour for 2021-22 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 173rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Take Im (7021) versus Ancer (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Best of luck — Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
Matthew Wolff -130 v. Gary Woodland |
|
78-72 |
Loss |
-130 |
3 h 46 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves from Hawai’i to California for The American Express in La Quinta, California. The competition will take place on three golf courses for the first three days at the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the LA Quinta Country Club. After three first three rounds where the 156 professionals played each course, the cut will take for Sunday for the top 65 golfers (plus ties) with the final round taking place at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course. Winning scores have been in the -20s for 14 straight years at this tournament.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Matthew Wolff who is listed at +2800 at DraftKings. Wolff is a candidate for a breakout campaign this season after overcoming a difficult 2021 on-and-off the golf course. After missing the cut at the Masters, Wolff took a few months off from the tour — but he returned in the fall in strong form by making all four cuts in his four events including a second-place at the Shriners and a tie for fifth at Mayakoba. Wolff is a good ball-striker — he ranks 17th on the tour for ’21-22 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. What makes Wolff one of the most intriguing younger players on the tour is his short game. He ranks fifth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green and fifth in Shots-Gained: Putting. Overall, Wolff is third this season in Shots-Gained: Total. He can put up a big number this week. He ranks 11th on the tour in Birdie Average and third in the field this week in his last 12 rounds. Wolff leads the field this week in Shots-Gained: Par 5s in his last 12 rounds as well. This is Wolff’s first event since mid-November — and his record is spotty here with a tie for 61st place and a tie for 40th place in his two previous appearances. But that is why we are getting the current leader on the touring Adjusted Scoring at +2800 odds. Wolff is linked with Gary Woodland for Round One head-to-head prop bets. Woodland is a bomber off the tee — but he can struggle with his irons. He ranks 154th on the tour for ’21-22 in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. The 37-year old has been dealing with back issues ever since his torn labrum in his hip in 2020 — and he might have picked up a bad habit or two to compensate for the pain. In his last 12 events going back to the Memorial last June, Woodland has missed the cut seven times. He has only made one cut in his first four events this season — and this will be his first event since mid-November. Take Wolff (7149) versus Woodland (7150) for Round One head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
01-20-22 |
Justin Rose -124 v. Rickie Fowler |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 45 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves from Hawai’i to California for The American Express in La Quinta, California. The competition will take place on three golf courses for the first three days at the PGA West Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the LA Quinta Country Club. After three first three rounds where the 156 professionals played each course, the cut will take for Sunday for the top 65 golfers (plus ties) with the final round taking place at the Pete Dye-designed Stadium Course. Winning scores have been in the -20s for 14 straight years at this tournament.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Justin Rose who is listed at +5500 odds at DraftKings. Rose is always dangerous when playing on a Pete Dye-designed course — he is fourth in the field in scoring on Dye courses in his last 24 rounds. Rose closed out 2021 in promising form with a tie for 12th place at Sea Island followed by a tie for 9th place in the Bahamas at the Hero World Challenge. With ten PGA Tour victories on his resume including the US Open in 2013 — he has another three second-place results at a major tournament. Rose also won the FedEx Championship in 2018. Rose is linked with Ricky Fowler for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props. Fowler typically plays well at this event — he has a tie for 10th and a tie for 21st place in his last two appearances. But I am comfortable fading the first-time father (in November) given the general decline in his career over the years after peaking in the 2014-15 season. Fowler has not played since the first weekend in November when he completed his 2021 with a tie for 44th place after a tie for 40th place the previous week. The weakest part of his game is his blade — he ranks 137th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season after finishing 126th in that metric for the 2020-21 season. Fowler is also 114th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this year. I worry about rust with Fowler with his already inconsistent precision with his short irons and putter. Take Rose (7041) versus Fowler (7042) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-22 |
Marc Leishman -108 v. Kevin Na |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-108 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
The first full PGA event in 2022 is the PGA Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai’i this week. The tournament will have 144 golfers competing at this Par-70 course. The distance is 7044 yards with the rough 33% higher than in past years. Some of the metrics I will be privileging for this event includes: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better. Seven of the last eight winners of this tournament competing at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawai’i the previous week.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Marc Leishman who is listed at +1600 at DraftKings. Leishman comes off a nice tie for 10th place last week at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. That result with his third-straight top-19 or better effort — and he has finished in the top-ten in four of his last six events. The Australian is one of the best golfers on the tour when dealing with high winds that can impact this tournament. He is also great with the blade. He ranks third in the field in Putting: Birdies or Better — and is 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Leishman plays great at this event. He is fifth in the field in course history in his last 24 rounds here. He has made the cut in all 12 of his appearances. He has finished in the top-20 seven times — and he has four top-10 finishes as well and two top-five results in his last three here. He is linked with Kevin Na for Tournament Matchup head-to-head props for this event. Na is the 2021 winner at this tournament — and he comes off a tie for 13th place last week at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. But Na does not have the ball-striking skills that tend to be needed to consistently play well here. He ranks just 133rd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in 2021-22 after ranking 114th in that metric last season. Na is 154th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this season after ranking 60th in that metic last season. Na had not finished better than 28th here in his previous four appearances including missing the cut in 2018 which was his most recent participation at this event before his return last January. Take Leishman (7021) versus Na (7022) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-22 |
Corey Conners -114 v. Talor Gooch |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
The first full PGA event in 2022 is the PGA Sony Open at the Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawai’i this week. The tournament will have 144 golfers competing at this Par-70 course. The distance is 7044 yards with the rough 33% higher than in past years. Some of the metrics I will be privileging for this event includes: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better. Seven of the last eight winners of this tournament competing at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawai’i the previous week.
Our Top Overlay Bet on a golfer that offers most value relative to their odds is on Corey Conners who is listed at +1800 to win this event at DraftKings. Conners is a great ball-striker who finished the 2020-21 season ranked 12th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also ranked 9th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. So far for 2021-22, he ranks 4th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee which will help dealing with the narrow fairways. He ranks third in the field this week in Shots-Gained at this tournament over the last 24 rounds. He did not play in Hawai’i last week — but he has made the cut in all three of his appearances here including a third place finish in 2019 and a tie for 12th place in 2020. Conners’ weakness in his game is his putting — but two of his best three putting performances in his career have been at this course. He is linked with Talor Gooch for Tournament Matchup head-to-head propositions. Gooch still leads the tour in FedEx points after a tie for 15th place last week at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. But many of the top pros take the fall schedule lightly so these pre-January numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. For 2020-21, Gooch ranked just 51st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 32nd in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Take Conners (7025) versus Gooch (7026) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-28-21 |
Rory McIlroy v. Hideki Matsuyama +101 |
|
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
The Olympic Men’s Golf event takes place at the east course of the Kasumigaseki Country Club. This is a standard four-day event consisting of 72 rounds of golf. The course is a par-71 consisting of 7447 yards. Bentgrass is the putting surface on two-tiered greens. Tim Fazio redesigned the course in 2016. Most of the 60 golfers competing at this event are unfamiliar with the course. Ball-striking (as always) appears to be a critical component to success. I will be looking for skill-sets that will likely translate for a golfer despite the unfamiliar environment.
Our Best Bet to win the Gold Medal is on Hideki Matsuyama who’s is listed at +1200 odds at DraftKings.. Winning a Gold Medal for his home country would culminate a magical year for Matsuyama who broke through to win his first major in April when he put on the green jacket after winning The Masters. Matsuyama is one of the few golfers with a track record at this course — he won the Asian Amateur here in 2010. Granted, Matsuyama has not registered a top-ten finish since his Masters triumph. That does not terribly surprise me — I avoided him after that victory since many golfers take the foot off the gas pedal after breaking through for their first major championship. He was a respectable tied for 26th place at the US Open last month. A positive COVID test prompted him to pull out of the Rocket Mortgage Classic to begin the month — so he is rested for this event. While that positive test prevented him from playing at the British Open, it allowed him to focus all his energies here. Matsuyama is consistently one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. His ranking of 17th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green is a bit off for this year. His form is improving as he ranks 4th in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green in his last 24 rounds. Matsuyama is linked to Rory McIlroy in head-to-head Tournament Matchup prop bets. McIlroy has endured a subpar year based off his high standards. It looked like he was breaking out of his slump with a 7th place at the US Open. But he then went to Europe where he finished T-59 and T-88 before a tie for 46th place at the British Open. I don’t love McIlroy’s chances at a course he is not familiar with. He tends to perform better at courses where his top-ten driving skills help him overpower the course. The multi-tiered greens may be too much of a challenge on his short game. McIlroy ranks 86th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting and 73rd in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Take Matsuyama (7008) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup prop bets versus McIlroy (7007). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-15-21 |
Tyrrell Hatton -144 v. Tommy Fleetwood |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-144 |
19 h 13 m |
Show
|
After six major championships, the British Open will finally be played again for the first time since July of 2019 after last year’s event was canceled because of the pandemic. Royal St. George golf course at Sandwich, Kent, in England hosts this year’s event for the 15th time in the history of the Open Championship. Successful golfers will need to deploy every club in their bag for this Par-70 course consisting of 7189 yards. Humps and bumps are littered in the fairways protected by pot bunkers. The professionals will then have to manage undulating putting surfaces when they hit the green. Winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour that will gust up to 25 MPH add to the challenge. Big hitters will not be rewarded this week at this links course on the ocean. Course management, ball-striking, and handling adversity are the attributes that typically define success here and at Open Championships.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top ten favorites to win this event is on Tyrrell Hatton who is listed at +3500 at DraftKings. Hatton has significantly improved when playing at linksland golf courses — in his last 17 starts by the seaside, he has ten top-20 finished with seven top-10s. He won at Abu Dubai earlier this season and recently finished in a tie for 2nd place at the Palmetto Championship last month. He missed the cut at the US Open with Torrey Pines not being a great fit for his game — but he had a nice warm-up for this event last week with a tie for 18th place at the Scottish Open after closing with a round of 64. Hatton ranks 15th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Hatton has two 6th place finishes at the British Open including in 2019 last time out. The Englishman ranks 10th in the world in the global rankings — he is a big threat this week. Hatton is linked with Tommy Fleetwood in head-to-head props for the Tournament Matchup. Fleetwood is often a go-to professional for me — and he thrives on links courses. But he is just not in great form right now. He comes off a tie for 26th place last week at the Scottish Open. He has not finished better than a tie for 14th place in his last nine events this year. Given his current ranking of 131st in the FedEx standings, he is not a lock to qualify for the Tour Championship — and that also puts his Ryder Cup aspirations into doubt. I am not sure if an Open Championship is where someone rediscovers their game (especially for all four rounds). Fleetwood is struggling with his driver. He ranks 159th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and ranks 120th in Driver Accuracy. In 2018-2019 when he finished second at the British Open to Shane Lowry, he was 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 73rd in Driver Accuracy. But is more than just the driver for Fleetwood. He ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 107th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green after ranking 13th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 55th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green in 2019. Fleetwood is also struggling with his blade as he ranks 122nd in Shots-Gained: Putting after ranking 55th in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2019. Take Hatton (7019) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup prop bets versus Tommy Fleetwood (7002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-15-21 |
Louis Oosthuizen -135 v. Tommy Fleetwood |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 41 m |
Show
|
After six major championships, the British Open will finally be played again for the first time since July of 2019 after last year’s event was canceled because of the pandemic. Royal St. George golf course at Sandwich, Kent, in England hosts this year’s event for the 15th time in the history of the Open Championship. Successful golfers will need to deploy every club in their bag for this Par-70 course consisting of 7189 yards. Humps and bumps are littered in the fairways protected by pot bunkers. The professionals will then have to manage undulating putting surfaces when they hit the green. Winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour that will gust up to 25 MPH add to the challenge. Big hitters will not be rewarded this week at this links course on the ocean. Course management, ball-striking, and handling adversity are the attributes that typically define success here and at Open Championships.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Louis Oosthuizen who is listed at +2500 odds to win at DraftKings. Oosthuizen was our Long Shot Bet at the US Open — and he almost brought it home at +5500 odds in what was a much better Overlay situation last month. But even at less than half that price, there is still tremendous value on a professional who continues to put himself in contention to win — and now he returns to the Open Championship where he was a British Open winning in 2010. Oosthuizen finished in 2nd place at the US Open last month after finished tied for second place at the PGA Championship earlier this year. He also finished tied for third place at the US Open last September. Some could lodge it as a criticism that Oosthuizen has a career grand slam at majors for second-place finishes. Jack Nicklaus, too, right? Oosthuizen is a wily veteran with the mental game that can handle adversity. He benefits from having played in the 2011 British Open at Royal St. George where he finished tied for 54th place as the defending Open Champion — and he may be a little more motivated to redeem himself from that disappointing result. He is in as good of form as he has been in his career with 21 made cuts in his last 22 tournaments. Oosthuizen ranks 2nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total Scoring. The South African is elite with his blade as he ranks first on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Oosthuizen is linked with Tommy Fleetwood in head-to-head props for the Tournament Matchup. Fleetwood is often a go-to professional for me — and he thrives on links courses. But he is just not in great form right now. He comes off a tie for 26th place last week at the Scottish Open. He has not finished better than a tie for 14th place in his last nine events this year. Given his current ranking of 131st in the FedEx standings, he is not a lock to qualify for the Tour Championship — and that also puts his Ryder Cup aspirations into doubt. I am not sure if an Open Championship is where someone rediscovers their game (especially for all four rounds). Fleetwood is struggling with his driver. He ranks 159th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and ranks 120th in Driver Accuracy. In 2018-2019 when he finished second at the British Open to Shane Lowry, he was 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 73rd in Driver Accuracy. But is more than just the driver for Fleetwood. He ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 107th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green after ranking 13th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 55th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green in 2019. Fleetwood is also struggling with his blade as he ranks 122nd in Shots-Gained: Putting after ranking 55th in Shots-Gained: Putting in 2019. Take Oosthuizen (7023) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup prop bets versus Tommy Fleetwood (7024). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-15-21 |
Brooks Koepka -130 v. Daniel Berger |
|
69-70 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 26 m |
Show
|
After six major championships, the British Open will finally be played again for the first time since July of 2019 after last year’s event was canceled because of the pandemic. Royal St. George golf course at Sandwich, Kent, in England hosts this year’s event for the 15th time in the history of the Open Championship. Successful golfers will need to deploy every club in their bag for this Par-70 course consisting of 7189 yards. Humps and bumps are littered in the fairways protected by pot bunkers. The professionals will then have to manage undulating putting surfaces when they hit the green. Winds of 10 to 15 miles per hour that will gust up to 25 MPH add to the challenge. Big hitters will not be rewarded this week at this links course on the ocean. Course management, ball-striking, and handling adversity are the attributes that typically define success here and at Open Championships.
I passed on Jon Rahm at the US Open because I thought his odds to win at +1000 made him an underlay. Sometimes underlays win — but with him now at a +700 price, after he won that major, he is a definite fade for me this week. This is just too volatile a course to invest at such a short price. Rahm’s playing great — and we have won with him in the past (at 2.5Xs the payout). A championship hangover is very possible after Rahm finally broke through to win his first major championship. It is even rarer for a professional to win back-to-back majors. Instead, our Best Bet to win this event is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1600 odds to win the tournament at DraftKings. Koepka was our Best Bet for the US Open — and let’s take another bite at the apple. He finished tied for 4th place at Torrey Pines that week to once again put himself into contention on Sunday to win another major. The bum knee that bothered him earlier in the year does not seem to be a factor. Koepka last played at the Traveler’s Championship where he finished tied for 5th place three weeks ago— so his form continues to be top-level. Said Koepka earlier this year about how he peaks at major championships: “I just have a harder time focusing in regular PGA Tour events … Majors, I’m locked in from the moment I hit the first tee shot. Even walking from the first tee shot to the ball, my head is still going on what I need to do. Out here I kind of lose focus for a little bit.” His results bear this out. In his last 29 starts at a major tournament, Koepka has 21 Top-25 finishes with five Top-7s and seven Top-2s or better. He is a two-time US Open champion and a two-time PGA champion. His record at Open Championships is encouraging with three top-10s in four career starts at a British Open. Koepka’s metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt since he tends to treat the non-majors as his practice rounds. But he still ranks 10th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 4th in Shots-Gained: Total, and 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Over his last 24 rounds, Koepka is 5th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Like living with basketball, hockey, and soccer plays that win the expected shots/goals battle but lose on the scoreboard, sometimes we need to just stay the course and trust the handicapping that is effectively identifying the superior performances. The Regression Gods eventually even things out. At +1600 odds, Koepka offers the best value for the top-seven favorites. Koepka is linked with Daniel Berger in Round One head-to-head prop matchups. Berger finished tied for 7th place at the PGA Championship and the US Open this year — but he struggles at Open Championships. Berger has missed the cut in two of his three British Opens with a tie for 24th place being his best result. Berger ranks 37th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 26th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. And he comes off an unspectacular tie for 34th place at the John Deere Classic last week before traveling across the pond in less than ideal travel management — especially for Round One. Take Koepka (7213) in a Round One head-to-head prop matchup versus Daniel Berger (7214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-21 |
Cameron Smith v. Louis Oosthuizen -120 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 39 m |
Show
|
The 121st US Open takes place at the Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. This was the site for the 2008 US Open that Tiger Woods won in a playoff on a bum leg. Torrey Pines is an annual spot on the PGA Tour with the Farmers Insurance Open in January. That tournament uses both the North and South courses in the first two days before going to the more difficult South course over the weekend. Course history on the South course is helpful — but the USGA has “US Open-ized” the course for this tournament so taking into account the past history at US Opens (with heavy rough, super-fast greens, etc.) is important. This is a Par-71 tournament with a long 7685 yards on the course. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the Top-10 listed favorites is on Louis Oosthuizen who is listed at +5500 odds at BetOnline. These are simply fantastic odds on a golfer who has a career grand slam at majors for second place finishes. His last second place result at a major was at the PGA Championship last month. He has broken through with a victory at the British Open — and two of his losses at a major were in a playoff. He is in as good of form as he has been in his career with 19 made cuts in his last 20 tournaments. Oosthuizen ranks 5th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total Scoring. The South African is elite with his blade as he ranks first on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He also thrives on Poa Annua greens as he is tops when putting on that surface since 2019. Oosthuizen has made eight of the last 11 cuts at the US Open with seven Top-25s including each event since 2014. Oosthuizen is linked with Cam Smith in tournament matchup up head-to-head propositions. The Australian tied for fourth place in his first US Open — but he has not finished inside the Top-30 in his next four US Open events. Even more troubling, he has scored a round of 77 in each of his last four US Opens while never breaking 70. Smith does not have a great track record at Torrey Pines with only one finish inside the Top-20 in seven appearances. He is also not in great form going into the week. He finished in 59th place at the PGA Championship before missing the cut at the Memorial. In those six rounds, Smith has not broken a score of 73. Take Oosthuizen (7044) versus Smith (7043) in tournament matchup head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-21 |
Rory McIlroy -125 v. Jordan Spieth |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
The 121st US Open takes place at the Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. This was the site for the 2008 US Open that Tiger Woods won in a playoff on a bum leg. Torrey Pines is an annual spot on the PGA Tour with the Farmers Insurance Open in January. That tournament uses both the North and South courses in the first two days before going to the more difficult South course over the weekend. Course history on the South course is helpful — but the USGA has “US Open-ized” the course for this tournament so taking into account the past history at US Opens (with heavy rough, super-fast greens, etc.) is important. This is a Par-71 tournament with a long 7685 yards on the course. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass.
|
06-17-21 |
Brooks Koepka +1.5 v. Bryson DeChambeau |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
The 121st US Open takes place at the Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California. This was the site for the 2008 US Open that Tiger Woods won in a playoff on a bum leg. Torrey Pines is annual spot on the PGA Tour with the Farmers Insurance Open in January. That tournament uses both the North and South courses in the first two days before going to the more difficult South course over the weekend. Course history on the South course is helpful — but the USGA has “US Open-ized” the course for this tournament so taking into account past history at US Open (with heavy rough, super-fast greens, etc.) is important. This is a Par-71 tournament with a long 7685 yards on the course. The greens consist of Poa Annua grass.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Brooks Koepka who is listed at +1600 odds to win the tournament at BetOnline. Koepka has been dealing with a bum knee himself this season — but that did not stop him from finishing in second place at the PGA Championship last month. He did miss the cut last week at the Palmetto Championship — but that might serve as a net positive for my handicapping since it means he comes in with the weekend off and a chip on his shoulder. Said Koepka afterwards: “I just have a harder time focusing in regular PGA Tour events … Majors, I’m locked in from the moment I hit the first tee shot. Even walking from the first tee shot to the ball, my head is still going on what I need to do. Out here I kind of lose focus for a little bit.” His results bear this out. In his last 28 starts at a major tournament, Koepka has 20 Top-25 finishes with four Top-7s and seven Top-2s or better. He is a two-time US Open champion with a Top-20 finish in each of his last six appearances. He can handle what the USGA will dish out. His record at Torrey Pines is not great, particularly at the South course. I can give that a pass since those events were non-majors.
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05-13-21 |
Scottie Scheffler +1.5 v. Jordan Spieth |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
The PGA annual AT&T Bryon Nelson tournament moves to a new course this year with the TPC Craig Ranch in the northern suburbs of Dallas hosting the event. This will be the third new venue in the last four incarnations of this tournament after last year’s event was canceled due to the COVID pandemic. TPC Craig Ranch has hosted many second-tier professional events but this will be its first foray hosting a PGA event of this magnitude. This is a long course consisting of 7468 yards. With wide fairways, there is an expectation that this could be a birdie-fest this week. Wind can be a factor for tournaments in Texas. With a lack of course history to assess past metrics that defined success, I will be relying on some reliable fallbacks. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green are both reliable in assessing form from iron play. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee measures the driver while taking distance and accuracy into account. Birdies-or-Better Percentage helps to identify what golfers will thrive in good scoring conditions. With four Par-3 holes over 200 yards, Par-3 Scoring: 200 Yards or more will be an illuminating metric. And with the Bentgrass putting surface, Shots-Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) will be helpful.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Scottie Scheffler who is listed at +1600 at BetOnline to win this event. The 2020 Rookie of the Year is in solid form with three straight top-30s after a tie for 18th at the Masters followed up by a tie for 29th place at the Valspar Championship in his last event two weeks ago. Scheffler’s profile fits this course. He leads the PGA Tour in Total Driving while ranking 15th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He can put up a big number — he ranks 16th on the tour in Birdies or Better, and he is eighth in the field in that metric. Scheffler ranks 33rd on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation. He is also 21st in Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage. The 24-year-old is familiar with this course as well after an eye-catching tournament at a professional event as a 17-year-old. Scheffler is linked with Jordan Spieth in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. Spieth has been in great form with a victory at TPC San Antonio the week before a tie for third place at the Masters to complete a stretch where he had five top-four finishes since February. But Spieth is recovering from COVID which he came down with ten days after playing at Augusta National. There have been many better-conditioned athletes who have struggled in their return to action after recovering from this disease. Even if Speith is back to 100% physically (and I hope so), he will likely be rusty playing in his first event in over a month. And Spieth’s strength is not with his driver — so this course may not be the best fit for his elite ball-striking. Spieth is just 89th on the tour in Driving Distance — and he is 151st in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. With Scheffler getting +1.5 strokes at a price right at my -150 price threshold, I recommend grabbing the value in requiring Spieth to out-perform Scheffler by at least two strokes. Take Scheffler (7007) +1.5 strokes versus Spieth (7008) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-13-21 |
Sam Burns v. Ryan Palmer +0.5 |
|
65-67 |
Loss |
-140 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
The PGA annual AT&T Bryon Nelson tournament moves to a new course this year with the TPC Craig Ranch in the northern suburbs of Dallas hosting the event. This will be the third new venue in the last four incarnations of this tournament after last year’s event was canceled due to the COVID pandemic. TPC Craig Ranch has hosted many second-tier professional events but this will be its first foray hosting a PGA event of this magnitude. This is a long course consisting of 7468 yards. With wide fairways, there is an expectation that this could be a birdie-fest this week. Wind can be a factor for tournaments in Texas. With a lack of course history to assess past metrics that defined success, I will be relying on some reliable fallbacks. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green are both reliable in assessing form from iron play. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee measures the driver while taking distance and accuracy into account. Birdies-or-Better Percentage helps to identify what golfers will thrive in good scoring conditions. With four Par-3 holes over 200 yards, Par-3 Scoring: 200 Yards or more will be an illuminating metric. And with the Bentgrass putting surface, Shots-Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) will be helpful.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Ryan Palmer who is listed at +3500 to win this event at BetOnline. Palmer is a native Texan who claims to have played TPC Craig Ranch a couple dozen times — and he has the course record with a round of 61. His success here makes sense since he is one of the better drivers on the PGA Tour who thrives under easier scoring conditions. Palmer is 11th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage — and he is ninth in the field over his last 50 rounds in that metric. He also ranks 29th in the field in Driving Distance in his last 50 rounds. Palmer is one of the most consistent pros — his fourteen straight-made cuts are the second-longest streak on the tour. He has eight top-20s this season including a tie for second place at the Farmers Insurance Open along with a fourth-place at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and a seventh place at the match play event in New Orleans three weeks ago. Palmer is linked with Sam Burns in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Burns won his first PGA Tour event two weeks ago at the Valspar Championship — so the 24-year-old may be due for an emotional letdown in his first event since that triumph. It is not uncommon for first-time winners to take a step back after hitting the proverbial “banquet tour” after breaking through with a big paycheck. A Round One prop bet fading a recent winner playing an unfamiliar course looks enticing. Burns has still missed the cut in three of his last six events. He can struggle with his irons — he ranks 46th in both Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. With Burns nice and shiny coming off a win, Palmer’s Round One price getting 0.5 strokes is below my -150 price threshold — so grabbing that prop is my recommendation. Take Palmer (7114) at +0.5 strokes in Round One betting propositions versus Burns (7113). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-13-21 |
Cameron Champ v. Marc Leishman -115 |
|
72-66 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
The PGA annual AT&T Bryon Nelson tournament moves to a new course this year with the TPC Craig Ranch in the northern suburbs of Dallas hosting the event. This will be the third new venue in the last four incarnations of this tournament after last year’s event was canceled due to the COVID pandemic. TPC Craig Ranch has hosted many second-tier professional events but this will be its first foray hosting a PGA event of this magnitude. This is a long course consisting of 7468 yards. With wide fairways, there is an expectation that this could be a birdie-fest this week. Wind can be a factor for tournaments in Texas. With a lack of course history to assess past metrics that defined success, I will be relying on some reliable fallbacks. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green are both reliable in assessing form from iron play. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee measures the driver while taking distance and accuracy into account. Birdies-or-Better Percentage helps to identify what golfers will thrive in good scoring conditions. With four Par-3 holes over 200 yards, Par-3 Scoring: 200 Yards or more will be an illuminating metric. And with the Bentgrass putting surface, Shots-Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) will be helpful.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Marc Leishman who is listed at +2800 at BetOnline to win this event. Leishman’s season metrics are not great — but he has found his form as of late with a tie for fifth place at the Masters followed up by him partnering with Cameron Smith to win the match play event in New Orleans in his last start. The Aussie thrives in windy conditions — and he has a great history playing in Texas with nine top-10 finishes in 33 career starts. He leads the field this week over his last 24 rounds in Par-3 Scoring: 200 yards or more. And he has success at this course in his past with a tie for seventh place in 2008 at a second-tier professional event. Fleishman is linked with Cameron Champ in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. I like Champ — and his great driver is intriguing this week. He is 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and third in Driving Distance. But Champ struggles with his irons which may hold him back from posting a Golden Tee-level score. Champ is just 92nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 67th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. These middling numbers explain why Champ’s good driver is only getting him to 47th on the tour in Birdies or Better Percentage. Champ was 28th at the Masters before finishing 34th at the Valero Texas Open and a tie for 17th place at the Zurich Classic match play event in New Orleans — but he has still missed the cut in five of his last nine events. Champ is at a significant experience disadvantage on this course when compared to Leishman — making a Round One prop particularly intriguing. Take Leishman (7110) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Champ (7109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-21 |
Gary Woodland v. Corey Conners -165 |
|
67-69 |
Loss |
-165 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
The Wells Fargo Championship takes place at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a long course consisting of 7554 yards with a par of 71. The greens consist of Bermuda grass. The last two champions have finished in the top two in Shots-Gained: Putting and Putting Average — so those are metrics I will be privileging this week. I will also be valuing Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity from 200 yards or more away from the tee.
Our Long Shot on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Corey Conners who is listed at +3300 odds at BetOnline. We had Conners last week at the Valspar Championship — and while he finished tied for 21st place, he did finish sixth or better in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity. Conners has six top-25s with four top-10s in his last seven trips. Conners is one of the best ball strikers on the tour. He is seventh on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, tenth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and ninth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is second in the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee for his last 24 rounds, and he is second in the field in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green in his last 24 rounds. Conners is linked with Gary Woodland for Round One head-to-head propositions. Woodland comes off a missed cut last week at the Valspar Championship. He has missed the cut in four of his last eight events. He did finish tied for sixth place at the Valero Texas Open — but that is his only finish higher than 40th place in his last eight events. Woodland is 14th Driving Distance — but that is where his resume stops for fitting this course. He ranks 179th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, 96th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and 176th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Woodland withdrew from this event after three rounds in 2019 (the pandemic canceled the tournament last year) after missing the cut in 2018. Take Conners (7138) versus Woodland (7137) in Round One tournament head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-06-21 |
Patrick Reed +0.5 v. Rory McIlroy |
|
71-72 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 29 m |
Show
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The Wells Fargo Championship takes place at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a long course consisting of 7554 yards with a par of 71. The greens consist of Bermuda grass. The last two champions have finished in the top two in Shots-Gained: Putting and Putting Average — so those are metrics I will be privileging this week. I will also be valuing Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity from 200 yards or more away from the tee.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Reed who is listed at +2800 at BetOnline. Reed missed the cut last week at the Valspar Championship at Copperhead — but that should give him a chip on his shoulder this week while giving him an extra two days off from missing the weekend in Tampa. Reed was tied for eighth for his previous event at the Masters — and he won the Farmers Insurance Open in January. Reed’s short game makes him a threat on this course. He is third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is also 15th in Shots-Gained: Total. He has a great course history at Quail Hollow — he has made the cut in all seven of his appearances here with a co-second place in the PGA Championship in 2017 and an eighth place at the Wells Fargo Championship event in 2018. Reed is linked with Rory McIlroy for Round One head-to-head propositions. McIlroy is out of form in a funk that has prevented him from breaking 74 in his last five-stroke play rounds. He has a great course history here as a two-time champion =— and he is the all-time money winner here. But McIlroy has not won on the tour since 2019. Maybe McIlroy finds his game this week — but it is tough to trust his touch right now. He ranks 108th on the tour for 2020-21 in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is also just 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. McIlroy has not played since missing the cut at the Masters last month so he may be a bit rusty for this opening round back in a tournament setting. Take Reed (7135) versus McIlroy (7136) in Round One head-to-head propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-06-21 |
Bryson DeChambeau -120 v. Rory McIlroy |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 19 m |
Show
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The Wells Fargo Championship takes place at the Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. This is a long course consisting of 7554 yards with a par of 71. The greens consist of Bermuda grass. The last two champions have finished in the top two in Shots-Gained: Putting and Putting Average — so those are metrics I will be privileging this week. I will also be valuing Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee, Shots-Gained: Approach the Green, and Proximity from 200 yards or more away from the tee.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Bryson DeChambeau who is listed at +1200 to win at BetOnline. DeChambeau disappointed his last time out at the Masters where he finished tied for 46th place — but it has been a good year so far with a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a third-place finish at the Player’s Championship. DeChambeau has the best driver — by far — on the PGA Tour, and he is an underrated putter. He leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He also leads the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee over his last 24 rounds. Furthermore, DeChambeau is tops on the tour in Par-5 Scoring. He leads the field in Proximity from 200 yards and beyond. He is also 13th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Par 4 from 450 to 500 yards away which will help him on the two long and challenging Par 4s that are part of the Green Mile final three holes on the course. He last played here in 2018 when Quail Hollow hosted the PGA Championship — he finished in 4th place. On a course that values distance, I will back DeChambeau while giving him a pass for the Masters where his attempts to out-drive the course need to be fine-tuned to ensuring he hits more fairways. DeChambeau is linked with Rory McIlroy for head-to-head Tournament Matchups. McIlroy is out of form in a funk that has prevented him from breaking 74 in his last five-stroke play rounds. He has a great course history here as a two-time champion =— and he is the all-time money winner here. But McIlroy has not won on the tour since 2019. Maybe McIlroy finds his game this week — but it is tough to trust his touch right now. He ranks 108th on the tour for 2020-21 in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is also just 74th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Take DeChambeau (7011) versus McIlroy (7012) in head-to-head Tournament Matchups. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-21 |
Justin Rose -160 v. Danny Willett |
|
74-71 |
Loss |
-160 |
13 h 0 m |
Show
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Strokes play returns to the PGA Tour this week after the Zurich Classic matchplay event last week in New Orleans. The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay presents one of the most challenging stops on the tour each year. This is a Par-71 course with five Par-3s consisting of 7340 yards. Success at this tournament typically relies on the golfer’s second shot. Distance off the drive is not a skill that is usually rewarded. The pros face three-inch rough, 74 bunkers, and water that impacts half the course if they miss the fairway. The narrow Bermuda greens approach 12-feet on the stimptmeter. Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green has been a reliable metric to determine success. The last three winners here have finished 1st, 6th, and 5th for the week in this metric. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is also vital, the last three winners have finished 7th, 7th, and 2nd. Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage is also important: the last three winners have finished 2nd, 14th, and 1st. Furthermore, I will be looking closely at Bogey Avoidance given the likely lower scores this week. This tournament was canceled because of the COVID shutdown last year so course history begins in 2019.
Our Long Shot Bet representing a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites is on Justin Rose who is listed at +3300 to win this event at BetOnline. Rose seems to be shaking off a slump that has slowed down his game over the last year or so. He shot a Round One 65 at the Masters before finishing a very respectable 7th place that week. He followed that up with a tie for 11th place at the matchplay event last week at the Zurich Classic. Back troubles have slowed him down — but he was one of the top five players in the world just two years ago. When Rose is on his game, he is one of the best ball-strikers and putters in the world. He leads the tour this year in Par-3 Scoring which can only help with the five Par-3s this week. He is also 10th in the field over the last two years for scoring on what are considered “tough” courses. He is 3rd on the tour this season in Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage. Rose has played quite well at this event. He has made the cut in six of his seven trips to Copperhead with a Top-14 or better five times. He has three Top-10s including a tie for 5th place in his last appearance in 2018. Rose is linked with Danny Willet for Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Willet had missed the cut in two straight events last month at the Masters and the Texas Open before a tie for 18th place at Harbour Town and then a tie for 8th place at the match play event in New Orleans last week. Willet is a good putter but his ball-striking is not at Rose’s level. Willet is 208th on the tour in Bogey Avoidance. He also ranks 128th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 103rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. Take Rose (7137) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Willett (7138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-21 |
Paul Casey +100 v. Patrick Reed |
|
68-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 58 m |
Show
|
Strokes play returns to the PGA Tour this week after the Zurich Classic matchplay event last week in New Orleans. The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay presents one of the most challenging stops on the tour each year. This is a Par-71 course with five Par-3s consisting of 7340 yards. Success at this tournament typically relies on the golfer’s second shot. Distance off the drive is not a skill that is usually rewarded. The pros face three-inch rough, 74 bunkers, and water that impacts half the course if they miss the fairway. The narrow Bermuda greens approach 12-feet on the stimptmeter. Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green has been a reliable metric to determine success. The last three winners here have finished 1st, 6th, and 5th for the week in this metric. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is also vital, the last three winners have finished 7th, 7th, and 2nd. Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage is also important: the last three winners have finished 2nd, 14th, and 1st. Furthermore, I will be looking closely at Bogey Avoidance given the likely lower scores this week. This tournament was canceled because of the COVID shutdown last year so course history begins in 2019.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Paul Casey who is listed at +2500 at BetOnline to win this event. Casey has won the last two events here — so it is safe to say that his game fits the course. Casey is in even better form this year than he was then. Casey opened 2021 by winning in Dubai which began a string of six straight Top-12 or better finishes at stroke play events before his tie for 26th place at the Masters. Casey then missed the cut two weeks ago at Harbour Town, which should put a chip on his shoulder this week. Casey ranks 24th on the tour this year in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 14th in the Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Casey is linked with Patrick Reed for Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Reed returns to action after finishing tied for 8th place at the Masters. Reed also has two second-place finishes at this event in 2015 and 2018. But I don’t love his deeper metrics this year relative to Casey. Reed is just 109th in Bogey Avoidance this season. His ball-striking has not been elite — he ranks 59th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 68th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Reed is also just 137th in Greens-In-Regulation. Take Casey (7115) versus Reed (7116) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-29-21 |
Corey Conners -160 v. Bubba Watson |
|
70-70 |
Push |
0 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
Strokes play returns to the PGA Tour this week after the Zurich Classic matchplay event last week in New Orleans. The Copperhead Course at the Innisbrook Resort in Tampa Bay presents one of the most challenging stops on the tour each year. This is a Par-71 course with five Par-3s consisting of 7340 yards. Success at this tournament typically relies on the golfer’s second shot. Distance off the drive is not a skill that is usually rewarded. The pros face three-inch rough, 74 bunkers, and water that impacts half the course if they miss the fairway. The narrow Bermuda greens approach 12-feet on the stimptmeter. Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green has been a reliable metric to determine success. The last three winners here have finished 1st, 6th, and 5th for the week in this metric. Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green is also vital, the last three winners have finished 7th, 7th, and 2nd. Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage is also important: the last three winners have finished 2nd, 14th, and 1st. Furthermore, I will be looking closely at Bogey Avoidance given the likely lower scores this week. This tournament was canceled because of the COVID shutdown last year so course history begins in 2019.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Corey Conners who is listed at BetOnline at +2000 to win this tournament. Conners is in great form with four Top-Eights and a T-14 in his last six events — highlighted by a 3rd place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a tie for 4th place at Harbour Town. Conners is one of the best ball strikers on the tour — and he is improving with his blade. He has gained strokes on the field in putting in five straight tournaments. For the 2020-21 season, Conners ranks 9th in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green, 11th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and 10th in Bogey Avoidance. In his last 24 rounds, Conners is 2nd in the field in Bogey Avoidance. He also ranks 3rd in the field over his last 24 rounds for Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Furthermore, he leads the field in Greens-In-Regulation over his last 24 rounds — and he leads the field in Ball Striking for the last 24, 36, and 50 rounds. Conners led outright at this event for each of the first three rounds in 2018 before drifting to a tie for 16th place in 2018. Conners is a much more polished three years later. Conners is linked with Bubba Watson for Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Watson is in pretty good form — he finished tied for 8th place at the Zurich matchplay event last week after a tie for 26th place at the Masters. Frankly, the Masters' result was perhaps a bit disappointing — Watson is a pro that tends to thrive on his favorite courses like Augusta National but then struggles elsewhere. Watson did finish tied for 4th place here in 2019, but this is not one of his standout events. He has not been a regular attendant at this event in his career. The putter will likely give him trouble this week — he ranks 134th in the Putting: Birdies or Better Percentage. He also ranks 142nd in Bogey Avoidance which is a concern. Take Conners (7111) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Watson (7112). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-15-21 |
Collin Morikawa v. Patrick Cantlay -105 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 8 m |
Show
|
The RBC Heritage Open takes place at Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. This is a Par-17 course consisting of a short 7121 yards. The rough is short — the first tier outside the fairway will be less than an inch. The fairways are narrow. Water is in play on all 18 holes — and the wind is usually a factor. The greens are the second smallest on the tour (to Pebble Beach) with an average of 3700 square feet consisting of Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be considering when handicapping this event include Par-4 Scoring (the last four winners here finished first or second in Par-4 Scoring for the week), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shots-Gained: Total at Pete Dye-designed courses, Shots-Gained: Short Game Approach plus Putting, and Greens-In-Regulation.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Patrick Cantlay who BetOnline lists at +1800 to win this event. Cantlay was one of our three golfers last week at the Masters but he disappointed by missing the cut. Cantlay also missed the cut at the Players — so his form is a question. He did finish in 18th place at the World Golf Championships match-play event in his most recent start before Augusta National. He has eight Top-20 results this season with a win at Zozo Championship, a second place at the American Express, and a third-place at the AT&T Pebble Beach Open. There has been a very intriguing track record since the return over the summer of players rebounding from missing the cut by winning the next week (and I need to update those numbers after that task got out on the backburner during March Madness). Cantlay enters the week relatively rested with the weekend off but angry to redeem himself from his massive underachievement at the Masters. Cantlay is eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green, and he is seventh in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Cantlay is also fifth in Bogey-Avoidance, and he is sixth in Par-4 Scoring. Cantlay is also second in the field in Shots-Gained: Total in his last 36 rounds at this course. He has a great track record at Harbour Town with a tie for third place, a tie for seventh place, and a tie for third place in his last three trips here from 2017 through 2019. His average score during that span is 68.50. Cantlay is linked with Collin Morikawa for head-to-head Tournament Matchup propositions. Morikawa comes off a tie for 18th place at the Masters. The problem with the reigning PGA Champion is his consistency. While he won at Concession earlier this year, he has missed the cut in four of his last six events. Morikawa is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour — he is third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and tops in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But Morikawa can struggle with his blade — he ranks just 180th in Shots-Gained: Putting. And he is not particularly strong if he misses the green and gets in trouble as he ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. I worry about his ability to consistently hit the small greens here at Harbour Town. It is telling that he finished tied for 64th at this event last year. Take Cantlay (7010) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup betting propositions versus Morikawa (7009). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-15-21 |
Webb Simpson -133 v. Collin Morikawa |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-133 |
4 h 58 m |
Show
|
The RBC Heritage Open takes place at Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. This is a Par-17 course consisting of a short 7121 yards. The rough is short — the first tier outside the fairway will be less than an inch. The fairways are narrow. Water is in play on all 18 holes — and the wind is usually a factor. The greens are the second smallest on the tour (to Pebble Beach) with an average of 3700 square feet consisting of Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be considering when handicapping this event include Par-4 Scoring (the last four winners here finished first or second in Par-4 Scoring for the week), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shots-Gained: Total at Pete Dye-designed courses, Shots-Gained: Short Game Approach plus Putting, and Greens-In-Regulation.
Our Best Bet to win this tournament is on Webb Simpson who is listed at +1400 odds at BetOnline. I think this is a solid price to put a chip on Simpson since it will pay for almost five weeks of our three-golfers-per-week model. Simpson is always a threat on Pete Dye-designed courses that emphasize shot-shaping — especially on shorter courses where distance off the tee is less of a factor. Simpson is also a wizard with the blade when putting on Bermuda greens. He is the defending champion — and we won in the fall when this event was rescheduled after COVID canceled its traditional weekend after the Masters. Simpson also finished in second place in 2013 amongst six other Top-25 finishes here. Simpson is in great form since winning this event in the fall. He has finished Top-17 or better in eight of his last eleven events. The analytics back him up as well. Simpson is fourth on the tour in Par-4 Scoring. He is second in Bogey-Avoidance. Furthermore, he is 8th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 23rd in Greens-In-Regulation. Simpson also ranks fifth in the field in Shots-Gained: Total when playing on Dye-courses over his last 24 rounds. Simpson is linked with Collin Morikawa for head-to-head Tournament Matchup propositions. Morikawa comes off a tie for 18th place at the Masters. The problem with the reigning PGA Champion is his consistency. While he won at Concession earlier this year, he has missed the cut in four of his last six events. Morikawa is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour — he is third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and tops in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. But Morikawa can struggle with his blade — he ranks just 180th in Shots-Gained: Putting. And he is not particularly strong if he misses the green and gets in trouble as he ranks 74th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green. I worry about his ability to consistently hit the small greens here at Harbour Town. It is telling that he finished tied for 64th at this event last year. Take Simpson (7003) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup betting propositions versus Morikawa (7004). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-15-21 |
Paul Casey -112 v. Cameron Smith |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-112 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
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The RBC Heritage Open takes place at Harbour Town Golf Links at Hilton Head Island in South Carolina. This is a Par-17 course consisting of a short 7121 yards. The rough is short — the first tier outside the fairway will be less than an inch. The fairways are narrow. Water is in play on all 18 holes — and the wind is usually a factor. The greens are the second smallest on the tour (to Pebble Beach) with an average of 3700 square feet consisting of Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be considering when handicapping this event include Par-4 Scoring (the last four winners here finished first or second in Par-4 Scoring for the week), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shots-Gained: Total at Pete Dye-designed courses, Shots-Gained: Short Game Approach plus Putting, and Greens-In-Regulation.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer who is listed outside the Top-10 favorites is on Paul Casey who BetOnline lists at +3300 to win this event. Casey has missed the cut here in his last two trips in 2016 and 2018 but he is in great form right now. Casey finished tied for 26th at the Masters last week after a tie for 28th in the World Golf Championships match-play event. But Casey had reeled off four straight Top-10 finishes before these recent two events including a tie for fifth place at the Players Championship. Casey has finished in the top-22 in his three other appearances at Harbour Town which makes sense since his game fits the course. Casey ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 17th in Shots-Gained: Approach the Green. Casey also ranks sixth in the field in his last 24 rounds in Greens-In-Regulation — and he ranks 10th in Shots-Gained: Around the Green in his last 12 rounds. Additionally, Casey ranks fourth in the enfold in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Total when playing on Pete Dye-designed courses. Casey has three wins on the PGA Tour — but it is his 15 wins in Europe that gives me confidence he can handle the wind this week. Casey is linked with Cameron Smith in head-to-head Tournament Matchup propositions this week. I like Smith — and I had him in some of my Masters' Pools and exotic bets last week. He finished tied for 10th place at Augusta. I just don’t think he is a great fit for this course this week. Smith is 57th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 75th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Smith is also just 80th in Greens-In-Regulation and 68th in Par-4 Scoring. Smith has just one Top-25 finish here in his five trips including two straight missed cuts. Take Casey (7017) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup propositions versus Smith (7018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-08-21 |
Justin Thomas -120 v. Bryson DeChambeau |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 56 m |
Show
|
The Masters at Augusta National takes place once again on its traditional April weekend just five months after the 2020 incarnation was delayed until November due to COVID 19. This event will have 88 competitors. Augusta National is a Par 72 course consisting of 7475 yards. Dustin Johnson broke the course record by two strokes with his 20 under in November. Historically, the powers-that-be make the course more difficult on the heels of low scores in the previous event. The Bobby Jones-designed track is considered the biggest test for a golfer’s second shot. The greens are very fast consisting of A-1 Penn Bentgrass with an average of 6500 square feet. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping the field this week include Greens-In-Regulation (the last two winners led the field in GIR), Par-4 Scoring (the last three winners finished in the Top-Seven including two of them leading the field), Bogey-Avoidance (the last three winners were Top-14), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green (critical to set up makable puts on the fast greens), and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green (always important in measuring ball-striking).
Our Best Bet to win the Masters is on Justin Thomas who is listed at +1100 by BetOnline to win this event. Thomas has the right mix of talent, form, and course history. Thomas has made the cut in all four of his previous trips here while improving each time out. He finished in fourth place in November. Thomas struggled earlier this year — he was impacted by the death of his grandfather who played an important role in his early development as a golfer. But Thomas put it all together at the Player’s Championship in March where he stormed the field on Sunday with a decisive victory. He left that tournament oozing with confidence -- and he is already perhaps the best ball-striker on the tour. Thomas leads the PGA Tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green while ranking second in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and Adjusted Scoring. He is tied for eleventh in Bogey Avoidance. He also leads the tour in Putts-per-Greens-In-Regulation and Putting: Birdies or Better. Thomas is linked with Bryson DeChambeau in head-to-head tournament matchups propositions. Frankly, I considered DeChambeau very closely as my Best Bet — while I thought he was overvalued with hype in November, he may have learned his lesson from trying to out-drive the course then still smelling the vapors of his dominant US Open win. I worry that the Masters’ tournament committee has done everything they can to modify the course to ensure DeChambeau cannot simply drive his way through it. The issue with DeChambeau is whether his extra length makes his approach shots easier because of the shorter distance even if he may not hitting from the middle of the fairway. Greens-In-Regulation may be his biggest weakness — he was tied for 53rd in the field in GIR in November, and he ranks 65th on the tour in that metric. Then there is his putting. DeChambeau is usually a great putter — and he uses analytics to decipher this part of the game. But since Augusta National forbids the use of green-reading books which takes away one of his most important tools for success with his putter. DeChambeau can go on tilt as well — so making a mistake with his blade while knowing he could not deploy his process without the book may set him off. And the proof is ultimately in the pudding as DeChambeau has yet to finish better than 21st place in his four trips here. Thomas is so reliable — even if DeChambeau has a great weekend, Thomas may still outduel him. Thomas’s floor is much higher than DeChambeau's. Take Thomas (7007) in head-to-head tournament matchups versus DeChambeau. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-21 |
Patrick Cantlay -133 v. Tony Finau |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-133 |
12 h 22 m |
Show
|
The Masters at Augusta National takes place once again on its traditional April weekend just five months after the 2020 incarnation was delayed until November due to COVID 19. This event will have 88 competitors. Augusta National is a Par 72 course consisting of 7475 yards. Dustin Johnson broke the course record by two strokes with his 20 under in November. Historically, the powers-that-be make the course more difficult on the heels of low scores in the previous event. The Bobby Jones-designed track is considered the biggest test for a golfer’s second shot. The greens are very fast consisting of A-1 Penn Bentgrass with an average of 6500 square feet. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping the field this week include Greens-In-Regulation (the last two winners led the field in GIR), Par-4 Scoring (the last three winners finished in the Top-Seven including two of them leading the field), Bogey-Avoidance (the last three winners were Top-14), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green (critical to set up makable puts on the fast greens), and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green (always important in measuring ball-striking).
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Patrick Cantlay who BetOnline lists at +2200 to win this event. Cantlay is rested and ready to make put together four great rounds at Augusta National. He has eight Top-20 results this season, with a win at Zozo Championship, a second place at the American Express, and a third-place at the AT&T Pebble Beach Open. Cantlay’s game fits the course — and he has been getting counseled by Freddie Couples (sure to be mentioned hundreds of times by Jim Nantz) to prepare for this week. Cantlay is eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green, and he is seventh in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Cantlay is also fourth in Bogey Avoidance and fifth in Par-4 Scoring. Furthermore, Cantlay is great with the blade. He ranks 8th in the field when putting on Bentgrass over the last two seasons — and he is second in the field when putting on fast surfaces measuring more than 12 feet on the stimptmeter in the last two seasons. He has finished top-five in the field in putting twice in his four previous trips to Augusta National. Cantlay led on Sunday two years ago before lagging late in the face of Tiger Woods’ triumphant surge for a tie for second place. He then opened with two strong rounds in November before settling for a tie for 17th place. He finished in the top-11 in Greens-In-Regulation in the field each of his last two appearances. Cantlay is linked with Tony Finau for head-to-head tournament matchups. Some bettors love to take fliers on Finau — but I find it reliable to assume that he will always find a way to disappoint. Finau is down in form entering this tournament — he has missed the cut in two of his last three tournaments including last week at the Valero Texas Open. Finau is a good ball-striker — yet he still flubs up enough to rank only 47th in Greens-In-Regulation and 61st in Bogey Avoidance. He also ranks 35th in Par-4 Scoring this season. Finau is not a great putter — he is just 88th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. Finau finished tied for fifth place in 2019 but was only 38th in November. Take Cantlay (7021) in head-to-head tournament matchup propositions versus Finau (7022). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
04-08-21 |
Viktor Hovland v. Patrick Reed -110 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
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The Masters at Augusta National takes place once again on its traditional April weekend just five months after the 2020 incarnation was delayed until November due to COVID 19. This event will have 88 competitors. Augusta National is a Par 72 course consisting of 7475 yards. Dustin Johnson broke the course record by two strokes with his 20 under in November. Historically, the powers-that-be make the course more difficult on the heels of low scores in the previous event. The Bobby Jones-designed track is considered the biggest test for a golfer’s second shot. The greens are very fast consisting of A-1 Penn Bentgrass with an average of 6500 square feet. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping the field this week include Greens-In-Regulation (the last two winners led the field in GIR), Par-4 Scoring (the last three winners finished in the Top-Seven including two of them leading the field), Bogey-Avoidance (the last three winners were Top-14), Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green (critical to set up makable puts on the fast greens), and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green (always important in measuring ball-striking).
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Patrick Reed who is listed at +3500 at BetOnline. Reed is a former champion at Augusta National who won the Masters in 2018 with a 15 under par. Reed finished tied for 10th place in November. Reed flexed his muscles in February by winning at Torrey Pines in dominant fashion. He thrives under difficult conditions because he is so good with his short game. He leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. He is also fifth in the field when putting on fast greens with the stimptmeter reading more than 12 feet over the last two years, and he is seventh in the field when putting on Bentgrass in the last two seasons. Furthermore, Reed is eighth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total, and he is fifth on the tour in Par-5 Scoring. Reed is linked with Viktor Hovland in head-to-head tournament matchup propositions. Hovland has only played at the Masters one other time when he finished in 32nd place. Augusta National is a course that rewards veteran experience. And Hovland limps into this week in poor form. He finished tied for 49th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational before missing the cut at the Player’s Championship, and then tied for 42nd place at the World Golf Championship Match Play event two weeks ago. Hovland may is just 63rd in Bogey Avoidance, 39th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and 94th in Shots-Gained: Putting — so his game may get him in trouble this week. Take Reed (7024) in head-to-head tournament matchup propositions versus Hovland (7023). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-01-21 |
Phil Mickelson v. Matt Kuchar -150 |
|
79-70 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 45 m |
Show
|
The Valero Texas Open takes place at TPC San Antonio. This event was canceled last year because of COVID. In 2019, the Oaks Course consisted of 7455 yards — another 59 yards have been added this year for this Par 72 tournament. Pat Dye and Greg Norman designed the course with Sergio Garcia providing input along the way — so it is fitting that this a track that challenges ball-strikers. Wind can often play a role in challenging the professionals. The greens are Bermuda grass. The metrics I have privileged in handicapping this tournament given past results include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, Par-3 Scoring, and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the Top-Ten favorites is on Matt Kuchar who is listed at +4000 odds at BetOnline to win this event. Kuchar is always intriguing when in good form on courses that reward ball-strikers. Kuchar finished in third place last week at the WGC match play event. Kuchar’s play has been spotty over the last two seasons — but he did win his sixteenth career event in December at the QBE Shootout. The veteran is not going to feel pressure if he is in contention on Sunday. The first-level rough is short this week — ball-strikers who don’t miss by much when they do miss the fairway can still reach the greens with relative ease. Kuchar is fourth in the field when playing on courses with similar short first-level rough over the last two seasons. He is also fourth in the field in overperforming relative to his baseline numbers when playing on short rough courses like this in the last two years. Kuchar has made the cut in all eight of his appearances here with four Top-15 results. Kuchar is linked with Phil Mickelson in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Mickelson’s form has waned — his tie for 25th place at the Honda Classic two weeks ago is his best performance in ten events in the 2020-21 season. He has missed the cut four times in those ten appearances. With the Masters next week, how much of Mickelson’s attention is here versus working on his game for next week? Mickelson ranks 174th this season on Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green, 123rd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and 116th in Greens-In-Regulation. He usually does not play this event. His last appearance here was in 2016 when he missed the cut. Kuchar comes in hot after a third place last weekend. Take Kuchar (7136) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Mickelson (7135). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-01-21 |
Cameron Tringale v. Ryan Palmer +106 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
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The Valero Texas Open takes place at TPC San Antonio. This event was canceled last year because of COVID. In 2019, the Oaks Course consisted of 7455 yards — another 59 yards have been added this year for this Par 72 tournament. Pat Dye and Greg Norman designed the course with Sergio Garcia providing input along the way — so it is fitting that this a track that challenges ball-strikers. Wind can often play a role in challenging the professionals. The greens are Bermuda grass. The metrics I have privileged in handicapping this tournament given past results include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, Par-3 Scoring, and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Ryan Palmer who BetOnline lists at a +2500 price. Palmer has four Top-10s at this event in his career with another Top-15 result. He has finished in the Top-25 in 15 of his last 27 events since the start of 2020 which has helped him elevate to 26th in the world rankings. He finished 17th last week at the WGC match play event — and he was 17th at the Player’s Championship in early March. Palmer has solid stats across-the-board. He ranks 18th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee and 18th in Greens-In-Regulation. He is third in Birdie Average. The first-level rough is pretty thin this week — and Palmer leads the field in Shots-Gained over the last two seasons when playing on courses with similar short rough at the first level. Palmer also ranks 13th in the field in Shots-Gained when playing in the wind of at least 14 MPH over the last two seasons. Palmer has four career wins but he does not have a first-place finish in a non-match play event since 2011 — so the veteran should be hungry if he is in contention this week while not looking ahead to Augusta. He has also missed the cut here in three straight years after completing a 6th-4th-6th run through 2016. Palmer is linked with Cameron Tringale in head-to-head Tournament Matchup propositions. Tringale comes off a tie for 13th place at the Honda Classic two weeks ago but he missed the cut at the Player’s Championship. Tringale only ranks 47th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and he is 36th in Greens-In-Regulation. Tringale did finish in 17th place here in 2019 — but he missed the cut in his previous two appearances here. Take Palmer (7018) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup propositions with Tringale (7017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-01-21 |
Corey Conners -105 v. Abraham Ancer |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 15 m |
Show
|
The Valero Texas Open takes place at TPC San Antonio. This event was canceled last year because of COVID. In 2019, the Oaks Course consisted of 7455 yards — another 59 yards have been added this year for this Par 72 tournament. Pat Dye and Greg Norman designed the course with Sergio Garcia providing input along the way — so it is fitting that this a track that challenges ball-strikers. Wind can often play a role in challenging the professionals. The greens are Bermuda grass. The metrics I have privileged in handicapping this tournament given past results include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, Par-3 Scoring, and Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Corey Conners who BetOnline lists at a +2200 price. Conners won this event the last time it was played in 2019 — and I don’t mind investing in a professional to repeat. This is a diluted field a bit with the Masters on deck next week. Conners is in great form —- he has five Top-10 finishes along with nine Top-25 results for the 2020-21 season. He finished 7th at the Player’s Championship at TPC Sawgrass in his most recent solo play before a third-place result at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill. He did compete last week at the World Gold Championships match play event. Conners’ game is a great fit for this course. He ranks 12th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green and 15th in Shots-Gained: Total. He also ranks 12th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season — and he is second in the field in that metric over his last 24 rounds. Furthermore, Conners is 14th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee this season — and he leads the field in that metric over his last 24 rounds. Conners also leads the field this week in Shots-Gained when playing on courses in Texas over the last two years. Conners is linked with Abraham Ancer in a head-to-head Tournament Matchup. I like Ancer — but he does not stack up favorably with Conners. Despite his reputation as a ball-striker, he is only 45th on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Tee-To-Green. He is also just 54th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. And he is 49th in Par-3 Scoring that has a strong correlation to being at the top of the leaderboard at this event. Ancer lacks a professional victory on the PGA Tour just yet — and I don’t like chasing maidens. Ancer is a Texas-native but he has not finished better than 42nd place in his three trips here. Take Conners (7013) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup propositions versus Ancer (7014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-21 |
Collin Morikawa v. Webb Simpson -115 |
|
70-66 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 48 m |
Show
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Most of the top professionals are participating in the World Golf Championships event this week in Bradenton, Florida. Mexico City has been the site of this tournament over the last few years but it will take place in a likely one-off at the Concession Golf Course. WGC tournaments are no-cut events. Most of the pros will not be very familiar with this course — the highest-profile event it has recently hosted was the NCAA Championship in 2015 that Bryson DeChambeau won. This course consists of 74774 yards with water impacting more than half the holes. Three of the four Par-5s have 577, 590, and 609 yards. The construction of the fairways is forgiving off the tee but the undulated greens will put a premium on second shots. Bermuda greens are the putting surface on the relatively small greens. Jack Nicklaus designed the course — he typically prioritizes iron play for success on his layouts. The metrics I will be privileging include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and (as always) Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Long Shot Bet on the golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Webb Simpson who is listed at +3300 at BetOnline. Simpson last played two weeks ago at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open where he finished in 42nd place. Simpson is winless in his 23 appearances at a World Golf Championship event. But Simpson is a machine when playing at ball-striking courses like this that feature Bermuda greens. Over the last 18 months, Simpson has 13 starts on courses with Poa or Bentgrass greens, and 14 starts at events with Bermuda greens. Simpson has eight top-20s with a tie for sixth place on Poa and Bentgrass tournaments. But when playing at events with Bermuda greens, Simpson has 12 top-20s with eight top-4s including two victories. Simpson is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He was sixth last year in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and fourth in Shots-Gained: Total. He was in fine form in Hawai’i in last month with a tie for fourth place at the PGA Sony Open after a tie for 17th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. Simpson is linked with Collin Morikawa in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Morikawa finished in 43rd place last week at the Riviera Country Club. He is a fantastic ball-striker — but he is a mess right now with the blade. Morikawa is experimenting with a new grip with his putter — yet he was last in Shots-Gained: Putting last week for Round Four and for the entire week amongst the golfers who made the weekend cut. The poor form with the putter will not help his confidence today. Morikawa is also just 43rd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green and 65th in Bogey Avoidance. Let’s take the wily-veteran elite ball-striker over the promising young ball-striker. Take Simpson (7110) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Morikawa (7109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-21 |
Jon Rahm v. Justin Thomas +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
104 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
Most of the top professionals are participating in the World Golf Championships event this week in Bradenton, Florida. Mexico City has been the site of this tournament over the last few years but it will take place in a likely one-off at the Concession Golf Course. WGC tournaments are no-cut events. Most of the pros will not be very familiar with this course — the highest-profile event it has recently hosted was the NCAA Championship in 2015 that Bryson DeChambeau won. This course consists of 74774 yards with water impacting more than half the holes. Three of the four Par-5s have 577, 590, and 609 yards. The construction of the fairways is forgiving off the tee but the undulated greens will put a premium on second shots. Bermuda greens are the putting surface on the relatively small greens. Jack Nicklaus designed the course — he typically prioritizes iron play for success on his layouts. The metrics I will be privileging include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and (as always) Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds to win this event is on Justin Thomas who is listed at +2000 at BetOnline. Thomas missed the cut last week with his putter letting him down. His grandfather passed recently — and I thought that might inspire him last week in his first event since. He may have been unfocused — but this could be the week he earns an emotional win. I love investing in golfers coming off a missed cut in their previous event — not only do they usually have a chip on their shoulder from the underwhelming effort but they also benefit from an extra couple days of rest and recuperation. Three of the last four winners on the PGA Tour missed the cut in their previous event: Daniel Berger at the AT&T Pebble Beach, Brooks Koepka at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Patrick Reed at the Farmers Insurance Open (our Top Overlay winner that week). Thomas has 13 victories on the PGA Tour with another six near-misses second-place results. Eight of his wins are at no-cut events like this. Thomas may very well be the best player in the world with an iron in his hands. In his last three appearances at a Jack Nicklaus golf course, he has finished in second place twice. In his last 24 rounds on a Nicklaus course, he is second in the field in Shots-Gained: Total. He is also second in the field in Scoring Average at the Florida PGA Tour courses with a win and third-place finish at the Honda Classic at the PGA National. Last season, Thomas led the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green while ranking third in Par-5 Scoring and 18th in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. It is rare to get Thomas at +2000. Thomas is linked with Jon Rahm in head-to-head Tournament Matchup betting propositions. Rahm is great — his tie for 5th place last week was his ninth Top-Ten finish in the last seven months. If there is a weakness in his game, it is as he gets closer to the pin. He is 59th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Even worse, he is 127th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Rahm does not have a great pedigree on these Florida golf courses. And while Rahm is a significant favorite in this prop, it makes the price with Thomas getting a valuable +1.5 strokes within my -150 price threshold. Take Thomas (7014) +1.5 strokes in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets versus Rahm (7013). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-21 |
Jon Rahm v. Rory McIlroy +1.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
Most of the top professionals are participating in the World Golf Championships event this week in Bradenton, Florida. Mexico City has been the site of this tournament over the last few years but it will take place in a likely one-off at the Concession Golf Course. WGC tournaments are no-cut events. Most of the pros will not be very familiar with this course — the highest-profile event it has recently hosted was the NCAA Championship in 2015 that Bryson DeChambeau won. This course consists of 74774 yards with water impacting more than half the holes. Three of the four Par-5s have 577, 590, and 609 yards. The construction of the fairways is forgiving off the tee but the undulated greens will put a premium on second shots. Bermuda greens are the putting surface on the relatively small greens. Jack Nicklaus designed the course — he typically prioritizes iron play for success on his layouts. The metrics I will be privileging include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-5 Scoring, Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and (as always) Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Rory McIlroy who is listed at +1600 odds at BetOnline. McIlroy missed the cut last week after a rough +7 over par after the first two days at the Riviera Country Club. I love investing in golfers coming off a missed cut in their previous event — not only do they usually have a chip on their shoulder from the underwhelming effort but they also benefit from an extra couple days of rest and recuperation. Three of the last four winners on the PGA Tour missed the cut in their previous event: Daniel Berger at the AT&T Pebble Beach, Brooks Koepka at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, Patrick Reed at the Farmers Insurance Open (our Top Overlay winner that week). McIlroy had made the cut in 25 straight events before last week. He had also finished in the Top-25 in nine straight events worldwide before the disappointing results last week. It has now been 480 days since McIlroy last won a golf tournament — so he should be feisty. But he is not playing poorly. He ranks second in the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in the three Florida golf courses on the PGA Tour: TPC Sawgrass, Bay Hill, and PGA National. McIlroy finished sixth in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last season and 18th in Par-5 Scoring. He is second the tour for the 2020-21 season in Driving Distance. McIlroy lives in Florida — and he has victories at each of the three Florida courses that feature on the tour. He should be very comfortable on a course most of the pros are not familiar with. McIlroy is linked with Jon Rahm in head-to-head Tournament Matchup betting propositions. Rahm is great — his tie for 5th place last week was his ninth Top-Ten finish in the last seven months. If there is a weakness in his game, it is as he gets closer to the pin. He is 59th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green. Even worse, he is 127th in Shots-Gained: Putting. Rahm does not have a great pedigree on these Florida golf courses. And while Rahm is a significant favorite in this prop, it makes the price with McIlroy getting a valuable +1.5 strokes within my -150 price threshold. Take McIlroy (7010) +1.5 strokes in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets versus Rahm (7009). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-18-21 |
Carlos Ortiz -115 v. Russell Henley |
|
75-69 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 9 m |
Show
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The Genesis Invitational at Pacific Palisades in California is the next stop on the PGA Tour. The Riveria Country Club is the site for this event for 120 professionals this week. This is considered one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. The 7340 yardage course is a Par-71. Six of the par-4s are 458 or more yards off-the-tee. Eight of the holes see bogeys or worse at least 20% of the time. Success at this event requires the golfers to be skilled with all 14 of their clubs. The putting surface Poa Annua greens registering 12.5 feet or more on the stimptmeter. The metrics I will be privileging to handicap this event include Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee since driving distance is a plus but the pros will want to avoid the thick rough featured at the Riv. I will also look to Bogey-Avoidance as well as the always important Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer listed outside the top-ten favorites is on Carlos Ortiz who is listed at +7000 to win this event at BetOnline. Ortiz is a professional who seems to have significantly gained confidence after earning his first win as a professional at the Houston Open last fall. He outdueled Johnson on that Sunday so he will not be fazed by the big names if he is in contention this week. After a disappointing fourth round at the PGA Farmer’s Insurance Open where he finished in 29th place, he rebounded by finishing in fourth place at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open. He has finished in the top-30 in his last three events which have pushed his world ranking to 45th. He has made all four of the cuts with his worst finishing being a respectable 26th. He finished ninth in 2019. Ortiz is linked with Russell Henley in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Henley is very reliable with his irons — but he is not great off-the-tee. Henley is 172nd in Driving Distance this season which will put him at a disadvantage. His accuracy helps — but he is just 83rd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He is not in great form — after missing the cut at The American Express, he finished tied for 30th at the PGA Waste Management Open two weeks ago. He returned to this event two years ago with 44th place before improving to 17th place last year. Solid results — but Ortiz’s track record is better and he is the hotter golfer. Take Ortiz (7149) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions against Henley (7150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-18-21 |
Justin Thomas -115 v. Rory McIlroy |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
The Genesis Invitational at Pacific Palisades in California is the next stop on the PGA Tour. The Riveria Country Club is the site for this event for 120 professionals this week. This is considered one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. The 7340 yardage course is a Par-71. Six of the par-4s are 458 or more yards off-the-tee. Eight of the holes see bogeys or worse at least 20% of the time. Success at this event requires the golfers to be skilled with all 14 of their clubs. The putting surface Poa Annua greens registering 12.5 feet or more on the stimptmeter. The metrics I will be privileging to handicap this event include Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee since driving distance is a plus but the pros will want to avoid the thick rough featured at the Riv. I will also look to Bogey-Avoidance as well as the always important Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Twelve of the top fifteen players in the world compete this week. The top-favorite, Dustin Johnson, is an underlay when priced at +600 (at BetOnline). Our Best Bet is on Justin Thomas who BetOnline lists at +1400 to win this event. With Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy all at lower prices, Thomas offers nice value at this price. Thomas has 13 wins in his career on the tour with another six 2nd place finishes. He did not play last week after the death of his grandfather — so he should be extra motivated this week to get back to business. Thomas led the PGA Tour in 2019-20 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking 8th in Bogey Avoidance. He is third in Scoring Average this season while ranking fifth in Around-the-Green in his last 24 rounds. He has started strong with third place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions before a tie for 13th place at the Waste Management Phoenix Open two weeks ago. Thomas has a good course history here at the Riv with a second-place finish in 2019 after leading going into Saturday and Sunday. His lone miss cut in six visits was last year — so I think he will be very motivated this week at a price we just don’t see that often with him. Thomas is linked with McIlroy in Tournament matchup head-to-head prop bets. At first glance, everything seems fine with McIlroy — his 13th place last time out at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open was his nine straight top-25 finish worldwide. Yet he has not won an event in 473 days. McIlroy is great off the tee — but his short game is holding him back. After finishing 76th in Greens-In-Regulation for 2019-20, he has fallen to 141st in that metric for the 2020-21 season. He was 45th in Bogey Avoidance last year but now tied for 100th this season. For 2020-21, McIlroy is 105th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 91st in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and 71st in Shots-Gained: Putting. Until I see McIlroy improve with his whole bag, I am comfortable fading him against elite players like Thomas. Take Thomas (7057) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets against McIlroy (7058). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-18-21 |
Xander Schauffele -110 v. Rory McIlroy |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 25 m |
Show
|
The Genesis Invitational at Pacific Palisades in California is the next stop on the PGA Tour. The Riveria Country Club is the site for this event for 120 professionals this week. This is considered one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour. The 7340 yardage course is a Par-71. Six of the par-4s are 458 or more yards off-the-tee. Eight of the holes see bogeys or worse at least 20% of the time. Success at this event requires the golfers to be skilled with all 14 of their clubs. The putting surface Poa Annua greens registering 12.5 feet or more on the stimptmeter. The metrics I will be privileging to handicap this event include Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee since driving distance is a plus but the pros will want to avoid the thick rough featured at the Riv. I will also look to Bogey-Avoidance as well as the always important Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Top Overlay Bet for the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Xander Schauffele who BetOnline lists at +1400. I know Schauffele’s odds are the same as our Best Bet — but, hey, this is my gimmick, so I can bend the rules a tad when I think the situation warrants it. Like the logic for our Best Bet, I will jump at the chance to generate almost 5:1 back on our three-chip investment this week with a pro who has finished in the top-25 in 26 of his last 28 events. Schauffele has 14 top-tens with nine top-5 results over this consistent stretch. Over his last 48 and 36 rounds, he leads his competition in strokes gained. In his last 24 and 16 rounds, he is second in strokes gained. Schauffele has seven top-20s this season with three-second places and another two fifth places. He lacks a recent victory in this stretch — but he shot the best at the PGA Tour Championship at East Lake last fall but did not lift the trophy given those rules that pencils in strokes based on previous playoff results. He has finished in second place in his last events at the PGA Farmer’s Insurance Open and the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open. Schauffele has finished 23rd or better in all three of his trips at the Riviera Country Club including a ninth place in 2018. Schauffele is linked with McIlroy in Tournament matchup head-to-head prop bets. At first glance, everything seems fine with McIlroy — his 13th place last time out at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open was his nine straight top-25 finish worldwide. Yet he has not won an event in 473 days. McIlroy is great off the tee — but his short game is holding him back. After finishing 76th in Greens-In-Regulation for 2019-20, he has fallen to 141st in that metric for the 2020-21 season. He was 45th in Bogey Avoidance last year but now tied for 100th this season. For 2020-21, McIlroy is 105th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 91st in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green, and 71st in Shots-Gained: Putting. Until I see McIlroy improve with his whole bag, I am comfortable fading him against elite players like Schauffele. Take Schauffele (7061) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets against McIlroy (7062). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Kevin Streelman -110 v. Si Woo Kim |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 6 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach, California with the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs will not be competing this week given COVID protocols which changes the format this year. Usually, this event involves three separate courses for the first three days before the cut with the final round being played at the Pebble Beach Golf Links course. The Monterey Course will not be used this year — so the professionals will play the first two days at the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses with the cut after 36 holes before concluding the weekend at Pebble Beach. This is the shortest course on the tour with Pebble Beach consisting of 7051 yards and Spyglass ten yards shorter. The greens are also the smallest on the tour. Wind is an issue with the location being on the Pacific Ocean. The putting surface is Poa grass. The metrics I am privileging this week in handicapping this event include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, and (as always), Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Top Overlay Bet for the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Kevin Streelman who is listed at +2800 odds at BetOnline. I loved Streelman even more earlier in the week when he was priced in the +4400 range (before Dustin Johnson withdrew from the event) — but I am not jumping off Streelman and he still offers value in a field where Patrick Cantlay is the betting favorite at the underlay price of +750. Streelman finished in second place last year while leading the field in Shots-Gained. Since 2016, Streelman has been one of the top pros at this event with five-straight top-17 or better finishes including three straight top-10s. And dropping the easier Monterey Course helps Streelman since he has lost strokes relative to the field there in three of the last five years. Streelman leads the field in Shots-Gained on the Pebble Beach and Spyglass Courses in the last two years. His last six rounds at the Pebble Beach Course have been sub-70s. Streelman is a short-hitter who is sixth in the field on short courses over the last two seasons. Streelman thrives on Poa greens courses as well — he is second in Strokes-Gained on Poa fast greens in his last 24 rounds in the field. He also ranks 4th in the field when playing on Poa courses over the last two years. He enters this event in good form after a tie for 22nd place last week at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open with four rounds in the 60s. He was 7th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 4th in Greens-In-Regulation last week. Streelman ranks 14th in Greens-In-Regulation this season. He was 13th two weeks ago in Greens-In-Regulation at Torrey Pines. He is linked with Si Woo Kim for Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Kim won the PGA The American Express three weeks ago the PGA West — but he has since tanked by missing the cut at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open before finished tied for 50th last week in Phoenix. Kim is not the first pro who takes a step (or two) back after cashing the check after winning their first professional event. What is most concerning from last week was that he lost -2.3 strokes versus the field Off-the-Tee — and being wild off the tee at this house starting at the Pacific Ocean is not a good way to drive. Kim is just 84th in Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 62nd in Greens-In-Regulation this season. Kim also has a spotty record here with four missed cuts along with a 4th place in 2019. Take Streelman (7011) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Kim (7012). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Paul Casey -135 v. Max Homa |
|
68-69 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 16 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach, California with the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs will not be competing this week given COVID protocols which changes the format this year. Usually, this event involves three separate courses for the first three days before the cut with the final round being played at the Pebble Beach Golf Links course. The Monterey Course will not be used this year — so the professionals will play the first two days at the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses with the cut after 36 holes before concluding the weekend at Pebble Beach. This is the shortest course on the tour with Pebble Beach consisting of 7051 yards and Spyglass ten yards shorter. The greens are also the smallest on the tour. Wind is an issue with the location being on the Pacific Ocean. The putting surface is Poa grass. The metrics I am privileging this week in handicapping this event include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, and (as always), Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Paul Casey who is listed at +1800 to win this event at BetOnline. Dustin Johnson was the favorite to begin the week at short +400 odds — but after he withdrew from the event, the field is wide open. I love Casey when he is in form which is definitely the case right now. After finishing tied for 8th place three weeks ago at the PGA West, he crossed the pond to win on the European Tour in Dubai before finished tied for 12th place in Saudi Arabia. Casey finished the 2019-20 season 9th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 14th in Greens-In-Regulation. Casey leads the field this week in performances on courses with Poa greens over the last two years. He also ranks second in the field in performance on short courses over the last two years. He missed the cut here last year which increase his feisty level — but he finished in second place in 2019 after a tie for 8th place in 2018. Casey also is 10th in the field when playing on the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses the last two seasons. Casey is linked with Max Homa in Tournament Matchup head-to-head proportions this week. Homa has three top-25s in three of his last four events but he comes off a 42nd place last week at the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open. The Cal-Berkeley grad is a regular at this event — and he has 14th and 10th place finishes the last two seasons. But I worry about his underlying numbers for the 2020-21 season. He ranks 102nd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 187 in Greens-In-Regulation. He also ranks 124th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Casey (7133) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head betting propositions versus Homa (7134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-11-21 |
Matthew Jones -130 v. Alexander Noren |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
The PGA Tour moves to the Monterey Peninsula Country Club at Pebble Beach, California with the PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. The amateurs will not be competing this week given COVID protocols which changes the format this year. Usually, this event involves three separate courses for the first three days before the cut with the final round being played at the Pebble Beach Golf Links course. The Monterey Course will not be used this year — so the professionals will play the first two days at the Pebble Beach and Spyglass courses with the cut after 36 holes before concluding the weekend at Pebble Beach. This is the shortest course on the tour with Pebble Beach consisting of 7051 yards and Spyglass ten yards shorter. The greens are also the smallest on the tour. Wind is an issue with the location being on the Pacific Ocean. The putting surface is Poa grass. The metrics I am privileging this week in handicapping this event include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Greens-In-Regulation, and (as always), Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites is on Matt Jones who is listed at +5500 to win this event at BetOnline. Jones has made 11 of the 13 cuts at this event including six top-25s and three top-10s including a tie for 5th place last year. Jones comes in fine form with eight straight cuts made. Jones ranks 15th in the field when playing on short courses. He also ranks 29th this season in Scoring Average. Jones is linked with Alexander Noren in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Noren is having a mediocre season despite three top-20s this season (all in the fall) as he ranks only 99th in FedEx points. Noren is 177th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 169th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 22nd in Greens-In-Regulation. Take Jones (7019) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Noren (7020). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Harris English v. Webb Simpson -120 |
|
72-73 |
Loss |
-120 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour continues with the trip to Phoenix in the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is typically a rowdy event with 170,000 spectators making this considered to be the “People’s Open”. However, COVID restrictions will keep this year’s attendance at 5000. This is a par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards. The professionals will contend with 67 bunkers with water playing a role in two of the holes. 132 pros will compete this week. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Greens-In-Regulation.
The top four favorites are Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy who are all priced from +700 to +1000. I am intrigued with Thomas this week — but these prices are simply too short and make these four golfers all underlays. Our Best Bet on the golfer to win this event is on Webb Simpson who is priced at +1800 at BetOnline. The defending champion here holds tremendous value at that price. Simpson is a machine when playing at ball-striking courses like this that feature Bermuda greens. Over the last 18 months, Simpson has 13 starts on courses with Poa or Bentgrass greens and 13 starts at events with Bermuda greens. Simpson has eight top-20s with a tie for sixth place on Poa and Bentgrass tournaments. But when playing at events with Bermuda greens, Simpson has 12 top-20s with eight top-4s including two victories. Simpson is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour. He was sixth last year in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and fourth in Shots-Gained: Total. He was in fine form in Hawai’i in his previous two events with a tie for fourth place at the PGA Sony Open after a tie for 17th place at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions. Simpson has made eight of ten cuts in his ten appearances here at the TPC Scottsdale with five top-10s and seven top-20s. Simpson is linked with Harris English in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets. English missed the cut last week at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open. We had English last week — so he was a disappointment (that was quickly forgotten about with Patrick Reed winning the event for us). I am not as bullish about English to bounce-back this week because he fits into a pattern of a pro winning his first event on the tour and then taking a step back. His intensity and focus may have slackened just a little bit. After winning the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions, his 32nd place at the PGA Sony Open was not a big deal. But he was awful in Round One last week. I worry about him ranking 104th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green — and he is 55th in Greens-In-Regulation this season. I still like English — but he does not compare favorably to Simpson at this event. Take Simpson (7132) in Tournament Matchup head-to-head prop bets versus English (7131). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Bubba Watson -135 v. Jason Day |
|
71-71 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour continues with the trip to Phoenix in the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is typically a rowdy event with 170,000 spectators making this considered to be the “People’s Open”. However, COVID restrictions will keep this year’s attendance at 5000. This is a par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards. The professionals will contend with 67 bunkers with water playing a role in two of the holes. 132 pros will compete this week. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Greens-In-Regulation.
Our Top Overlay Bet on a golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Bubba Watson who is listed at +4000 at BetOnline. Watson was our Long Shot Bet last week at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open — but he missed the cut. The last time we stuck with one of our golfers who missed the cut for us the previous week (for us) was last week when Patrick Reed used the extra two days of rest after missing the cut at the American Express along with that chip on his shoulder to win last week while racing out to an 8 under par in Round One. Watson tends to thrive on a select number of courses that fit his skillset (like the Masters at Augusta) — and he has a great track record at the TPC Scottsdale. Amongst his eight top-20 finishes here, Watson has finished in second place twice, with third, fourth, and fifth place results. Watson is third on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in the 2020-21 season. He is also ninth in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and fifth in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He should bounce back with a strong effort this week. Watson is linked Jason Day in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Day missed the cut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open in his first event in 2021. Day ranks only 132nd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season — and he is 130th in Greens-In-Regulation. Day also ranks just 89th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He is simply not a great fit for this course. Take Watson (7023) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Day (7024). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-04-21 |
Sungjae Im v. Ryan Palmer +1.5 |
|
72-70 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour continues with the trip to Phoenix in the PGA Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. This is typically a rowdy event with 170,000 spectators making this considered to be the “People’s Open”. However, COVID restrictions will keep this year’s attendance at 5000. This is a par-71 course consisting of 7261 yards. The professionals will contend with 67 bunkers with water playing a role in two of the holes. 132 pros will compete this week. The putting surface is Bermuda greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and Greens-In-Regulation.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win is on Ryan Palmer who is listed at +5000 to win this event at BetOnline. Palmer is in very nice form right now — he finished tied for second place last week at the PGA Farmers Insurance Open after two fourth places earlier this season at the Zozo Championship last fall along with the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawai’i in January. Palmer is a solid ball-striker who is 22nd on the tour in Greens-In-Regulation. Palmer is 42nd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 48th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, 34th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green — all solid numbers for a +5000 long shot. This is Palmer’s first trip back at this event since 2015 when he finished tied for second place. Palmer is linked with Sungjae Im in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Im is the workhorse of the tour who has not skipped an event in 2021. He has made all four cuts — but I worry about his putting four rounds together relative to his peers. He ranks 205th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Around-the-Green — so he can get in trouble if he misses the green. Im’s blade can also let him down — he is 105th in Shots-Gained: Putting. He has been hit-and-miss this season with 15th place at the American Express and 5th place at the Sentry Tournament of Champions by 56th at the Sony Open and 32nd last week at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Palmer is offered at a nice price below -150 getting +1.5 strokes in this Round one prop bet -- take it! Take Palmer (7020) +1.5 strokes in Round One prop bets versus Im (7019). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-21 |
Bubba Watson -165 v. James Hahn |
|
70-70 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour returns to Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. The South Course will host the US Open later in the summer so the professionals will be using this test to prepare for that major championship. The 156 entrants will rotate between the North and South courses for the first two days with the South Course serving as the weekend track after the cut. The North Course plays about 2.5 strokes easier with it being 450 yards shorter with Bentgrass greens. The South Course is a beast at 7465 yards with Poa Annua greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey-Avoidance, Driving Distance. Course history is also something I will be privileging. With the high cliffs, the gull winds, and the Poa Annua greens, there are plenty of distractions with this unique set-up that unravels the pros.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win is on Bubba Watson who is listed at +4500 to win this event at BetOnline. Watson is a former winner here in 2011 with three other Top-10 finishes. He finished tied for 6th place here last year while shooting 11 under par on the South Course. Watson tends to thrive on a select number of courses that fit his skillset (like the Masters at Augusta). He is good form right now with him leading the tour in his previous 24 rounds of play in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking fourth over that span in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Watson is linked with James Hahn in Round One prop bets. Hahn followed up his T-41 finish at the Sony Open with a T-32 last week at The American Express. But he ranks just 84th in Driving Distance so he may struggle at the long South Course this week. He is also just 103rd on the tour this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 57th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Watson (7139) in Round One prop bets versus Hahn (7140. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-28-21 |
Brooks Koepka v. Harris English -150 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-150 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
The west coast swing of the PGA Tour returns to Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California for the Farmers Insurance Open. The South Course will host the US Open later in the summer so the professionals will be using this test to prepare for that major championship. The 156 entrants will rotate between the North and South courses for the first two days with the South Course serving as the weekend track after the cut. The North Course plays about 2.5 strokes easier with it being 450 yards shorter with Bentgrass greens. The South Course is a beast at 7465 yards with Poa Annua greens. The metrics I used to handicap this event given course history include Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, Par-4 Scoring, Bogey-Avoidance, Driving Distance. Course history is also something I will be privileging. With the high cliffs, the gull winds, and the Poa Annua greens, there are plenty of distractions with this unique set-up that unravels the pros.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Harris English who is at +2200 odds at BetOnline. English is in great form having won at the PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua. The veteran finished 18th last season on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while also ranking 10th in Par-4 Scoring and 3rd in Bogey Avoidance. He is 4th on the tour in 2020-21 in Total Scoring. English has made seven of the eight cuts in his appearances here with his game being a good fit for this course since he gets to use all the clubs in his bag. English has two top-10 finishes here including losing in a playoff in 2015. His last appearance here was in 2018 when he finished tied for 8th place. English is linked with Brooks Koepka in head-to-head Tournament Matchup prop bets. Koepka missed the cut last week at The American Express as he continues his proclivity to underachieve at non-major PGA events. Koepka does not practice much during the week — he uses these non-majors as his de-facto practice time to build up for big performances at the four major championships. It is hard to argue with his approach given his success at the majors. But with the South Course being the site of the US Open, he is even more likely to experiment rather than play for the lowest-number possible. Koepka has missed the cut in his last two events. He ranks 53rd on the tour in 2020-21 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 124th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Take English (7006) in head-to-head Tournament Matchup prop bets versus Koepka (7005). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
Patrick Reed -180 v. Gary Woodland |
|
68-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 4 m |
Show
|
The American Express PGA event takes place at La Quinta, California. The former Bob Hope tournament is traditionally a pro-am event but will be altering its format because of COVID protocols. Rather than playing on three different courses for the first three rounds, the field will play the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus course the first two days before those that make the cut will play the weekend at the Stadium course. This event is relatively easy based on tour standards to accommodate the amateurs. The average winning score since 2011 is 24.5 under par. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping this tournament based on history here include Par-5 Scoring; Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better (Bermuda greens); Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better.
Our Best Bet to win this event is Patrick Reed who is priced at +1600 on BetOnline. This is Reed’s first time back at this tournament since 2018. He hoisted the trophy in 2014 while finished tied for 12th in 2017. His game is a good fit for this course that will see low scores. Reed ranks second in the field in “easy” courses over the last two seasons. He currently ranks third in Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better. He finished last season 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Total. Reed’s short game is one of the best in the world. He is eighth in the field in Bogey-Avoidance over his last six months. He ranked 32nd last year in Par-5 Scoring. He is also great with the blade. Reed was fifth last year in Putting: Birdies or Better and 10th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Putting. Reed finished tied for 21st place two weeks ago at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He withdrew from last week’s Sony Open after experience shin splints and blisters at the Sentry where he dipped from being tied for sixth place going into the weekend — so he should be rested, recuperated, and ready. Reed is linked with Gary Woodland for Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Woodland has been dealing with a torn labrum in his hip that has required several cortisone shots. This is just his third tournament since the start of November — he has missed the cut in his two previous events including the Masters. The numbers are rough for him for the start of the 2020-21 season. He is 244th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks 185th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. And he is 226th in Birdie Average. This is his first time back at this event since 2014. When Woodland is in top form, I really like his game — and I have backed him on multiple occasions. He is a fade this weekend given his health and being out of form. Take Reed (7137) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Woodland (7138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
Sungjae Im -180 v. Russell Knox |
|
68-69 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 58 m |
Show
|
The American Express PGA event takes place at La Quinta, California. The former Bob Hope tournament is traditionally a pro-am event but will be altering its format because of COVID protocols. Rather than playing on three different courses for the first three rounds, the field will play the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus course the first two days before those that make the cut will play the weekend at the Stadium course. This event is relatively easy based on tour standards to accommodate the amateurs. The average winning score since 2011 is 24.5 under par. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping this tournament based on history here include Par-5 Scoring; Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better (Bermuda greens); Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +2200 at BetOnline. We had Im last week after his tie for fifth place at the Sentry Tournament of Champions but he disappointed with a tie for 56th. That subpar effort may light a fire in the iron man on the tour. Im is the co-leader this season in rounds under par in his ten starts which is also tied for most on the tour for the 2020-21 season. Im is 12th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. He ranked 21st last season in Par-5 Scoring and 28th in Putting: Birdie-or-Better. He is also 7th in Bogey-Avoidance in the field over the last six months. Im has a nice course history in his third year as a professional. He debuted here in 2019 with a tie for 12th place before finishing tied for 10th last year with all four rounds in the 60s. Im is linked with Russell Knox in Round One head-to-head propositions. Knox missed the cut last week so his form is in question. Knox is 199th this season in Shots-Gained: Putting and 146th in Birdie Average. Take Im (7121) in Round-One head-to-head betting propositions. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-21 |
Kevin Na -175 v. Andrew Landry |
|
75-70 |
Loss |
-175 |
2 h 53 m |
Show
|
The American Express PGA event takes place at La Quinta, California. The former Bob Hope tournament is traditionally a pro-am event but will be altering its format because of COVID protocols. Rather than playing on three different courses for the first three rounds, the field will play the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus course the first two days before those that make the cut will play the weekend at the Stadium course. This event is relatively easy based on tour standards to accommodate the amateurs. The average winning score since 2011 is 24.5 under par. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping this tournament based on history here include Par-5 Scoring; Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Putting: Birdies or Better (Bermuda greens); Shots-Gained: Birdies or Better.
Our Long Shot on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Kevin Na who is listed at +4000 at BetOnline. Making his permanent residence across the street from the Hollywood Sports’ office here in Las Vegas, Na made the neighborhood proud by winning the Sony Open last week in Hawai’i. After a slow start to his career, Na now registered five tour victories in his last 55 starts and now ranks 38th in the world. Na is a ball-striker who thrives on shorter courses — so this is a good fit for him to continue his momentum. He averaged +1.43 Strokes-Gained: Approach-the-Green versus the field last week. He ranks sixth in the field in scoring on short courses (up to 7200 yards) over the last two seasons. Na is linked with Andrew Landry in Round One head-to-head betting propositions. Landry won this event last year — and he lost in a playoff here in 2018 — so he is comfortable at this event. But Landry has missed the cut in three of his last five events including last week at the PGA Sony Open. I don’t love Landry’s deeper metrics. He ranks 146th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green after finishing 137th in that metric last season. He is 123rd in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green after ranking 137th last year. He is 155th in Birdies-or-Better Percentage after finishing 144th in that category last year. And he is 170th in Par-5 Scoring this season after finishing 173rd last year. Take Na (7141) in Round One head-to-head betting propositions versus Landry (7142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-14-21 |
Collin Morikawa +110 v. Daniel Berger |
|
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Hawai’i. This is a short 7044-yard course with a par of 70. This is the first full event of 2020 with 144 players competing. As opposed to last week’s event at the Sentry Tournament with its wide-open fairways, this golf course features narrow fairways protected by trees. Bermuda grass is the putting surface. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping this event include Rounds in the 60s, Shots-Gained: Putting, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament competed in Hawai’i the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Collin Morikawa who BetOnline prices at +1400. Morikawa displayed his vast potential last year with his two wins on the tour including the PGA Championship. His play swooned last fall after winning his first major but 2021 cleans the slate. He was in good form last week with a tie for seventh place at Kapalua — but his Sunday round of 73 should keep him ornery this week. Morikawa’s profile fits this course. He was second on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He was also 12th Rounds in the 60s. Additionally, Morikawa is currently 15th for the 2020-21 season in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green which is a metric I always value since it measures fundamental ball-striking. He is also third best in the field when putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years. Morikawa is linked with Daniel Berger for tournament matchup prop bets. Berger is a great ball-striker who finished 10th last week at the Sentry Tournament to Champions. But his putter let him down and this course is not the place to be cold with the blade. Berger has made all five of the cuts in his previous appearances here. But Berger ranks only 42nd on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green for the 2020-21 season after ranking 34th in that metric last season. Berger also ranks just 93rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green this year. Take Morikawa (7025) versus Berger (7026) in tournament head-to-head matchups.
|
01-14-21 |
Adam Scott v. Ryan Palmer -110 |
|
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Hawai’i. This is a short 7044-yard course with a par of 70. This is the first full event of 2020 with 144 players competing. As opposed to last week’s event at the Sentry Tournament with its wide-open fairways, this golf course features narrow fairways protected by trees. Bermuda grass is the putting surface. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping this event include Rounds in the 60s, Shots-Gained: Putting, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament competed in Hawai’i the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Ryan Palmer who BetOnline listed at +3300. Palmer was in good form last week with his fourth-place finish at Kapalua. He was second in the field in All-Around last week. Palmer has registered five top-ten finishes since the restart last summer. He has a great track record at this event with four top-20 finishes including a first-place result in 2010. He finished tied for a fourth place here last year. Palmer is a good ball-striker who currently ranks 35th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and he ranks 24th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Palmer also ranks fourth in the field in putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years. Palmer is linked with Adam Scott for tournament matchup head-to-head prop bets. Scott is experimenting with his putter right now — he did not use his broom-like putter last week (T21st place) but was using it again in practice leading up to this event. This tournament has been feast or famine for Scott in his career. He has four top-20 finishes here including a second place in 2009. Yet he missed the cut in his last appearance here in 2019. Scott’s form worries me — the ball-striker ranks just 85th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for 2020-21. Take Palmer (7014) in tournament matchup head-to-head prop bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-14-21 |
Sungjae Im -110 v. Hideki Matsuyama |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
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The PGA Sony Open takes place at the Waialae Country Club in Hawai’i. This is a short 7044-yard course with a par of 70. This is the first full event of 2020 with 144 players competing. As opposed to last week’s event at the Sentry Tournament with its wide-open fairways, this golf course features narrow fairways protected by trees. Bermuda grass is the putting surface. The metrics I am privileging when handicapping this event include Rounds in the 60s, Shots-Gained: Putting, and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Seven of the last nine winners of this tournament competed in Hawai’i the previous week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Sungjae Im who is listed at +1400 at BetOnline. Technically, the odds for Im are the same as our Best Bet — so it’s my betting system that gives me the latitude to bend my rules at times. Im offers too much value to not put a chip on him this week. Im a machine who is out on the tour almost every week. He proved his mettle by finished in second place at the Master’s last fall. He is in good form with a tie for 5th place last week at Kapalua. Despite it being his first time playing that course as a professional, he led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while ranking third in Proximity to the Hole. Im has played this event two times already in his young career with 21st and 16th place finishes with an opening round of 65 last year. Im led the tour last season in Rounds in the 60s. Im was 20th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee last season. He is also sixth-best in the field when putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years. Im is linked with Hideki Matsuyama in tournament head-to-head matchup prop bets. Matsuyama looked worse than just a bit rusty last week with his 41st place finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions. He registered a -0.972 Shots-Gained: Putting versus the field last week. Putting is the weak-link in Matsuyama’s game — he really struggles if his putting is off. I am not optimistic he can find his stroke on the slow Bermuda greens this week. His course history is suspect here as well. He has not finished in the top-ten in his seven starts here — and he has missed the cut three times. Take Im (7031) versus Matsuyama (7032) in head-to-head tournament matchup prop bets. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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01-07-21 |
Patrick Reed -155 v. Scottie Scheffler |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
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The PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first event in 2021 on the tour. The entry requirements loosened for this event given COVID prompting the cancellation of many of last year’s tournaments. Not only are past winners invited for this event in Kapalua, Hawai’i but so too are the top-30 players in last year’s final FedEx rankings. 42 golfers will compete in this event loaded with the best players in the world (with the notable exception of Rory McIlroy). With some of the widest fairways on the tour, the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course offers a birdie-fest to the professionals. The elevation changes to this course will also reward the bigger hitters. Wind is expected this week ranging from 8 to16 MPH. The putting surface is velcro Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers include: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Strokes-Gained: Par-5s; Proximity 100-125 yards; Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green (always).
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who provides the most value relative to their odds is on Patrick Reed who is priced at +1600 to win this event at BetOnline. Reed has a great course history here with a win in 2015 and two other second-place results including last year when he lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas. Reed is in great form with six straight Top-15 finishes which include the US Open and the Masters. He last played in Dubai the European Tour finale last month where he finished in third place. Reed has a great short game — he ranks 20th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green this season and he leads the field in his last 24 rounds in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda greens. The wider fairways will help him get out his driver without penalty — and he ranks fourth in Shots-Gained: Par 5s. Reed is linked with Scottie Scheffler in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Scheffler had a great summer with a fifth place at the PGA Championship and two top-fives in the FedEx playoff events. He was later 19th at the Masters. Scheffler is great with his driver — he is ninth in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. But he also ranks 226th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 88th in Shot-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 106th in Shots-Gained: Total. Take Reed (7045) versus Scheffler (7046) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-07-21 |
Webb Simpson -125 v. Sungjae Im |
|
70-67 |
Loss |
-125 |
4 h 21 m |
Show
|
The PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first event in 2021 on the tour. The entry requirements loosened for this event given COVID prompting the cancellation of many of last year’s tournaments. Not only are past winners invited for this event in Kapalua, Hawai’i but so too are the top-30 players in last year’s final FedEx rankings. 42 golfers will compete in this event loaded with the best players in the world (with the notable exception of Rory McIlroy). With some of the widest fairways on the tour, the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course offers a birdie-fest to the professionals. The elevation changes to this course will also reward the bigger hitters. Wind is expected this week ranging from 8 to16 MPH. The putting surface is velcro Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers include: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Strokes-Gained: Par-5s; Proximity 100-125 yards; Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green (always).
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Webb Simpson who is listed at +2800. Simpson has two top-three finishes in four starts at this tournament while never finishing below 11th place. While the layout for this course seems to reward big hitters (and long drivers have won this tournament recently), there is a long history of short hitters with their driver who hoisted the trophy here on Sunday including Patrick Reed, Zach Johnson, Jordan Spieth, and Steve Stricker. The wide fairways will help Simpson use his driver — but it is his iron play that makes him so good. He is sixth on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. He also ranks third on the tour the last two seasons in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda greens. Simpson is linked with Sungjae Im in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Im is one of the busiest golfers on the tour — and he demonstrated his vast potential with a second place finish at the Masters. But he is 59th this season in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, 63rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and 74th in Shots-Gained: Par-5 Scoring. Take Simpson (7133) against Im (7134) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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01-07-21 |
Brendon Todd v. Bryson DeChambeau -200 |
|
68-69 |
Loss |
-200 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
The PGA Sentry Tournament of Champions is the first event in 2021 on the tour. The entry requirements loosened for this event given COVID prompting the cancellation of many of last year’s tournaments. Not only are past winners invited for this event in Kapalua, Hawai’i but so too are the top-30 players in last year’s final FedEx rankings. 42 golfers will compete in this event loaded with the best players in the world (with the notable exception of Rory McIlroy). With some of the widest fairways on the tour, the Kapalua Resort’s Plantation Course offers a birdie-fest to the professionals. The elevation changes to this course will also reward the bigger hitters. Wind is expected this week ranging from 8 to16 MPH. The putting surface is velcro Bermuda grass. The metrics I will be privileging in handicapping the golfers include: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Strokes-Gained: Par-5s; Proximity 100-125 yards; Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee; Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green (always).
Our Best Bet to win this event is on Bryson DeChambeau who is listed at +1000 at BetOnline. Motivation is one of the factors to consider when the pros are playing in Hawai’i — that should not be an issue for DeChambeau who may have used the holiday break to continue his transformation into a half-cyborg/half-man. DeChambeau is uber-dedicated to his craft with him being on the cutting edge of fitness, nutrition, and golf analytics. He broke out last year with a win at the US Open but perhaps the pressure of being a favorite at the Masters along with his obsession to deploy a longer driver in that event contributed to his disappointing tie for 34th place. He should have a huge chip on his shoulder now. This is his third trip at this event and first since 2019 — and that was before his body transformation which has made him the biggest bomber on the tour. DeChambeau leads the field in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee over his last 24 rounds — and he leads the tour in that metric for ’20-21. DeChambeau also leads the tour in Shots-Gained: Total and Driving Distance while ranking 6th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and 14th in Shots-Gained: Par-5 Scoring. With wide fairways and elevated tees, DeChambeau is going to crush this course and be in position for a bevy of eagles and birdies. DeChambeau is also an outstanding putter — and he ranks 8th in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda greens. With Dustin Johnson priced at +600 and Justin Thomas at +750, there just isn’t much value with those pros. DeChambeau is linked with Brendan Todd in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Todd comes off two straight top-eight finishes in December but his profile is simply a poor fit for this course. Todd is a great putter who is 8th in Shots-Gained: Putting this season. But he also ranks 109th in Shots-Gained: Total, 252nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, and 200th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. Take DeChambeau (7124) versus Todd (7123) in head-to-head betting proportions for Round One. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-19-20 |
Jason Kokrak v. Webb Simpson -170 |
|
75-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 36 m |
Show
|
The RSM Classic takes place at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. This event will take place on two courses for the first two days. The Plantation course is consists of 7062 yards with a par of 72. The Seaside course — which will also serve as the weekend course — is a par 70 course consisting of 7005. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping the professionals are the following: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shot-Gained: Putting on Bermuda Greens; Shots-Gained: Par 4 (400-450 yards) — eight holes on this course of this length.
Our Best Bet to win this event is Webb Simpson who BookMaker lists at +825 odds to win this event. Simpson is the all-time money leader for this tournament after finishing in second place last year after losing in a playoff. He also lost in a playoff in 2011. Simpson also has a third-place finish in 2018. Overall, Simpson has four top-10 finishes in his last eight starts on this short course that fits his game quite well. Simpson currently ranks 6th in the world. He comes off a strong tie for 10th place at the Masters last week which was his seventh straight top-20 finish in a row. Simpson is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour — he ranked 16th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for 2019-20. He also ranked 6th in Shots-Gained: Approach and 4th in Shots-Gained: Total for the ’19-20 season. Simpson also thrives when putting on Bermuda grass. He is 5th on the tour in putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years — and he is also 5th in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda greens in his last five rounds. Simpson is matched with Jason Kokrak for Round One propositions. Kokrak won the CJ Cup a month ago but failed to cut last week at the Masters. The rookie lacks professional experience on this course. He ranked 74th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last year. He was also just 41st on the tour for 2019-20 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Simpson (7126) versus Kokrak (7125) in Round One betting propositions. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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11-19-20 |
Joaquin Niemann v. Sebastian Munoz -120 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 17 m |
Show
|
The RSM Classic takes place at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. This event will take place on two courses for the first two days. The Plantation course is consists of 7062 yards with a par of 72. The Seaside course — which will also serve as the weekend course — is a par 70 course consisting of 7005. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping the professionals are the following: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shot-Gained: Putting on Bermuda Greens; Shots-Gained: Par 4 (400-450 yards) — eight holes on this course of this length.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten favorites to win this event is on Sebastian Munoz who BookMaker lists at +3490 to win this event. Munoz is one of the most underrated professionals on the tour right now after making six straight cuts with four top-25 finishes. He registered his third straight top-20 result last week with his tie for 19th place at the Masters. Munoz also finished in the top-18 in all three of the FedEx playoff events late in the summer including 8th place finishes at both the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship. He finished in third place at this tournament last year. Munoz is linked with Joaquin Niemann for tournament head-to-head matchups. Niemann has not played a professional event since finishing tied for 17th place at the Zozo Championship last month. He has since dealt with testing positive for COVID which compelled him to miss the Masters last week. He is likely to be rusty and perhaps still not back at 100%. And while Niemann is a good ball-striker, he ranked only 49th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Total. Take Munoz (7060) versus Niemann (7059) in head-to-head tournament matchup proposition bets. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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11-19-20 |
Russell Henley -106 v. Matthew Fitzpatrick |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 22 m |
Show
|
The RSM Classic takes place at the Sea Island Resort in Georgia. This event will take place on two courses for the first two days. The Plantation course is consists of 7062 yards with a par of 72. The Seaside course — which will also serve as the weekend course — is a par 70 course consisting of 7005. The metrics that I will be privileging when handicapping the professionals are the following: Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green; Fairways Gained; Shot-Gained: Putting on Bermuda Greens; Shots-Gained: Par 4 (400-450 yards) — eight holes on this course of this length.
Our Best Bet to win this event is Webb Simpson who BookMaker lists at +825 odds to win this event. Simpson is the all-time money leader for this tournament after finishing in second place last year after losing in a playoff. He also lost in a playoff in 2011. Simpson also has a third-place finish in 2018. Overall, Simpson has four top-10 finishes in his last eight starts on this short course that fits his game quite well. Simpson currently ranks 6th in the world. He comes off a strong tie for 10th place at the Masters last week which was his seventh straight top-20 finish in a row. Simpson is one of the best ball-strikers on the tour — he ranked 16th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green for 2019-20. He also ranked 6th in Shots-Gained: Approach and 4th in Shots-Gained: Total for the ’19-20 season. Simpson also thrives when putting on Bermuda grass. He is 5th on the tour in putting on Bermuda greens over the last two years — and he is also 5th in Shots-Gained: Putting on Bermuda greens in his last five rounds. Simpson is matched with Jason Kokrak for Round One propositions. Kokrak won the CJ Cup a month ago but failed to cut last week at the Masters. The rookie lacks professional experience on this course. He ranked 74th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green last year. He was also just 41st on the tour for 2019-20 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. Take Simpson (7126) versus Kokrak (7125) in Round One betting propositions.
Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to their odds is on Russell Henley who is listed at +2350 at BookMaker. The Georgia native and former Georgia Bulldog has three straight top-ten finishes here since 2016. Henley is in good form as well with nine straight cuts made and four top-ten finishes in his last seven starts. He did not play at the Masters last week so he enters this event rested and ready. He has gained on the field in seven straight events in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green. And in his last 24 rounds, Henley is tops in Shot-Gained: Approach and second in Shots-Gained: Par 4s (400-450 yards). Henley ranked 9th on the tour for 2019-20 in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green, and Shots-Gained: Total. He is also good with the blade on Bermuda greens. Henley is linked with Matthew Fitzpatrick for tournament matchup proposition bets. The rookie comes off a tie for 46th place last week at the Masters. But his skill-set is not a great fit for this course as he ranked 94th on the tour last year in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green and just 81st in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green. The rookie lacks professional experience on this course as well. Take Henley (7055) versus Fitzpatrick (7056) in tournament matchup head-to-head proposition bets. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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11-12-20 |
Patrick Cantlay v. Dustin Johnson -140 |
|
70-65 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 13 m |
Show
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The 84th Masters takes place for the first time in November this year given the cancellation of this event in April due to COVID. The weather this weekend will be similar to early April in Augusta — but rain and potential thunderstorms are possible for at least Thursday. The Augusta National Golf Course is a par-72 event consisting of 7475 yards. The putting surface is Penn bentgrass. The event this year will have 29 golfers. No patrons will be allowed inside due to COVID restrictions. While distance off the tee box helps, Augusta National is still considered to be a critical test for second shots.
The typical winner who gets to wear the green jacket on Sunday has typically played at this tournament at least five times. That is why I am dismissing favorite Bryson DeChambeau since he has played here only three times (with just three rounds under par with no top-20 finishes). With DeChambeau at +650 odds at BookMaker, he is an underlay bet not offering much value. Instead, our Best Bet to win this event is on Dustin Johnson who BookMaker lists at +750 odds to win this event. Johnson was probably playing the best golf on the tour this fall with his tie for second place at the PGA Championship followed up by winning the Tour Championship before a tie for fifth place at the US Open. Johnson then was infected with COVID that kept him on the shelf for six weeks. I have been cautiously skeptical about his return to action — but he looked great in his first event back last week at the Houston Open where he finished tied for second place. He shot 66-66-65 in the last three days of that event in what was a clear warm-up for this week. All parts of Johnson’s game are strong — and he is peaking on this golf course given his recent history. Johnson has finished tied for 13th place or better in five straight appearances including his tie for second place last year. Johnson is linked with Patrick Cantlay for 1st Round betting propositions. Cantlay is a good ball striker — he was 12th on the tour for 2019-20 for Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green. But Johnson ranked 9th in that metric last year. Cantlay is not quite as good with the driver — he was 40th in Driver Distance las season which is why he then ranked 23rd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Johnson was 10th on the tour in Driver Distance — and he ranked 11th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Cantlay’s putter can be a liability as well — he ranked 58th last year in Shots-Gained: Putting. Cantlay comes off winning the Zozo Championship at Sherwood two weeks ago — but his resume at major championships is not as promising. Cantlay finished tied for 43rd place at the US Open this year after finishing tied for 43rd place at the PGA Championship. Cantlay finished tied for 9th at the Masters last year in his third appearance here after missing the cut the previous year and finishing tied for 47th place in 2012. Take Johnson (7274) versus Cantlay (7050) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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11-12-20 |
Brooks Koepka +100 v. Patrick Cantlay |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 57 m |
Show
|
The 84th Masters takes place for the first time in November this year given the cancellation of this event in April due to COVID. The weather this weekend will be similar to early April in Augusta — but rain and potential thunderstorms are possible for at least Thursday. The Augusta National Golf Course is a par-72 event consisting of 7475 yards. The putting surface is Penn bentgrass. The event this year will have 29 golfers. No patrons will be allowed inside due to COVID restrictions. While distance off the tee box helps, Augusta National is still considered to be a critical test for second shots. Our Top Overlay Bet for the golfer offering the most value relative to their odds is on Brooks Koepka who BookMaker lists at him to win the Masters at +1400. Koepka has been slowed by knee issues that eventually compelled him to go under the knife about a year ago. He has developed the well-earned reputation of raising his game only for the majors. Granted, he has won four of his last eleven major championships. But Koepka then seemed to openly confront this reputation by playing a very busy summer schedule after the return from the spring stoppage. Maybe he felt he needed that work to build strength back up in his knee? After finishing tied for 29th place at the PGA Championship before then missing the cut at the Wyndham Championship, Koepka did take a break as he bypassed all of the FedEx playoffs along with the US Open. He looked refreshed and closer to his old form last week at the Houston Open where he finished tied for fifth place after posting two straight 65s over the weekend. Koepka was second last week Shots-Gained: Putting and tied for second place in Birdies recorded. Koepka has won the US Open twice along with the PGA Championship twice but he is still searching for his first green jacket. He has made the cut in all four of his appearances here including co-second place last year where he also co-led in Par-5 scoring. Koepka had a knack for starting slow at this tournament but his opening round of 66 last year perhaps demonstrated how comfortable he is with Augusta National. Koepka is linked with Patrick Cantlay in tournament matchup propositions. Cantlay is a good ball striker — he was 12th on the tour for 2019-20 for Strokes-Gained: Tee-to-Green. But Cantlay is not quite as good with the driver — he was 40th in Driver Distance las season which is why he then ranked 23rd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee. Cantlay’s putter can be a liability as well — he ranked 58th last year in Shots-Gained: Putting. Cantlay comes off winning the Zozo Championship at Sherwood two weeks ago — but his resume at major championships is not as promising. Cantlay finished tied for 43rd place at the US Open this year after finishing tied for 43rd place at the PGA Championship. Cantlay finished tied for 9th at the Masters last year in his third appearance here after missing the cut the previous year and finishing tied for 47th place in 2012. These two are polar opposites: Cantlay thrives in non-majors but takes a step-back with the major championships just when Koepka tends to raise his level of play. Take Koepka (7049) in tournament matchup betting propositions versus Cantlay (7050). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
|
11-12-20 |
Tommy Fleetwood v. Bubba Watson -125 |
|
71-74 |
Loss |
-125 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
The 84th Masters takes place for the first time in November this year given the cancellation of this event in April due to COVID. The weather this weekend will be similar to early April in Augusta — but rain and potential thunderstorms are possible for at least Thursday. The Augusta National Golf Course is a par-72 event consisting of 7475 yards. The putting surface is Penn bentgrass. The event this year will have 29 golfers. No patrons will be allowed inside due to COVID restrictions. While distance off the tee box helps, Augusta National is still considered to be a critical test for second shots.
Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten is on Bubba Watson who is listed at BookMaker at +3003 odds to win the Masters. Watson is a two-time green jacket winner with victories at Augusta National in 2012 and 2014. He tied for 5th place and tied for 12th place in his last two trips here. While the lefty has had some disappointing performances here, the issue is often what kind of form he has before the event. Watson is playing very good golf right now. He has four top-20 finishes in his last five tournaments are a tie of seventh place at Shadow Creek and then a tie of fourth place at Sherwood last month. At the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek, he led the field in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green while posting a third-round 65. He then posted a second-round 84 at the Zozo Championship at Sherwood. Watson may be able to put up a juicy red number this week. Over his last five tournaments, he has gained at least 4.8 strokes: Tee-to-Green versus his competition. Watson has also admitted he has dealt with anxiety issues in his past — so the lack of a gallery may be a boon for him this week. Watson is linked with Tommy Fleetwood for 1st Round betting propositions. Fleetwood has struggled to play in the US since the pandemic hit. His best performance over the summer was a tied 29th at the PGA Championship. Since the start of the 2020-21 season in September, Fleetwood missed the cut at the US Open before finishing tied for 59th at the CJ Cup and then tied for 57th place at the Zozo Championship. Simply a form issue — Fleetwood continues to struggle to approach his past performances at PGA major championships. Take Watson (7255) versus Fleetwood (7255) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One. Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-20 |
Billy Horschel v. Xander Schauffele -175 |
|
72-68 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
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The US Open takes place at the Winged Foot Country Club in Mamaroneck, New York. Winged Foot hosted the 2006 US Open where both Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson blew up with a pair of double bogeys to hand the championship to Geoff Ogilvy. He won with a score of five-over-par which was the last time the winner of one of the four major tournaments finished above par. That event also saw the professionals average just 1.8 birdies per round which is the lowest number at a major in the last fourteen years. Bogey-Avoidance will be one of the key metrics to consider when handicapping this event. Scrambling is also important — Oglivy along with the top-three runner-ups all excelled in this metric in 2006 here. Ogilvy was just 119th in the field that week in Driving Accuracy so that is not a metric that I will be privileging. Length off the tee will be helpful with this course consisting of 7469 yards which will make it the 5th longest US Open in its history. This Par-70 tournament will require the professionals to use all fourteen of their clubs. Narrow fairways are a defining feature of Winged Foot. The rough will be a big challenge as per normal at US Opens as well. Golfers missing the fairway will immediately be confronted with rough that will likely be three to four inches thick. And without a crowd forming a gallery around each hole, the pros will not be bailed out by matted-down grass from sitting fans. Seven of the Par-4 holes are 467 yards or longer. Three of the Par-3s are at least 210 yards. The conventional wisdom is that ball-striking will be critical this week — so assessing metrics like Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green will be important. Yet with the fairways so narrow, banking on golfers always finding the short grass may be Fool’s Gold. There may be value in considering the bigger hitters since if everyone is going to be in the rough, at least being closer to the green will be of benefit. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee will be a metric I consider. Putting will also play a critical role this week. The greens will consist of a Poa Annua/Bentgrass blend at an 80/20% ratio. The stimpmeter reads at 13 feet so these will be fast greens. Our Top Overlay Bet on the golfer who offers the most value relative to the odds is on Xander Schauffele who is listed at +1400 to win the US Open at Bovada. Schauffele finished in second place at the Tour Championship two weeks ago while beating the field with the low-score through 72 holes (but losing to Dustin Johnson due to the six-stroke lead to start the event given the FedEx point standing difference). Schauffele won the Tour Championship in 2017 and he finished a solid 10th place at the PGA Championship earlier this year. Schauffele has the skills to excel at Winged Foot. He was 8th in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee for 2019-20 while ranking 4th in that metric over his last twenty-four rounds. He was 4th in Bogey Avoidance last season while leading the field in that category over his last twenty-four rounds. Schauffele was also 7th in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and 3rd in Shots-Gained: Total. Important for this week, Schauffele was also 2nd on the tour last season in Shots-Gained: Scrambling. He also ranks 8th in the field this week in putting performance on Poa Annua over the last two seasons. Schauffele has a record of consistent excellence at US Opens where he has finished T-5, T-6, and T-3 over the last three years. In his last twelve major championships, Schauffele has eight top-20 finishes and six top-ten results. Schauffele is linked with Billy Horschel for Round One betting propositions for Thursday. Horschel finished tied for 13th at the Memorial Tournament but he was just tied for 33rd at the BMW Championship in the other most difficult course since the restart. He comes off a 30th place finish at the Tour Championship two weeks ago. He was just 66th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green last season — but it is his 114th ranking in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green that is particularly troublesome for him given the rough he will face this week. Take Schauffele (7628) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One versus Horschel (7627). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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09-17-20 |
Phil Mickelson v. Jon Rahm -225 |
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79-69 |
Win
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100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
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The US Open takes place at the Winged Foot Country Club in Mamaroneck, New York. Winged Foot hosted the 2006 US Open where both Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson blew up with a pair of double bogeys to hand the championship to Geoff Ogilvy. He won with a score of five-over-par which was the last time the winner of one of the four major tournaments finished above par. That event also saw the professionals average just 1.8 birdies per round which is the lowest number at a major in the last fourteen years. Bogey-Avoidance will be one of the key metrics to consider when handicapping this event. Scrambling is also important — Oglivy along with the top-three runner-ups all excelled in this metric in 2006 here. Ogilvy was just 119th in the field that week in Driving Accuracy so that is not a metric that I will be privileging. Length off the tee will be helpful with this course consisting of 7469 yards which will make it the 5th longest US Open in its history. This Par-70 tournament will require the professionals to use all fourteen of their clubs. Narrow fairways are a defining feature of Winged Foot. The rough will be a big challenge as per normal at US Opens as well. Golfers missing the fairway will immediately be confronted with rough that will likely be three to four inches thick. And without a crowd forming a gallery around each hole, the pros will not be bailed out by matted-down grass from sitting fans. Seven of the Par-4 holes are 467 yards or longer. Three of the Par-3s are at least 210 yards. The conventional wisdom is that ball-striking will be critical this week — so assessing metrics like Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green will be important. Yet with the fairways so narrow, banking on golfers always finding the short grass may be Fool’s Gold. There may be value in considering the bigger hitters since if everyone is going to be in the rough, at least being closer to the green will be of benefit. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee will be a metric I consider. Putting will also play a critical role this week. The greens will consist of a Poa Annua/Bentgrass blend at an 80/20% ratio. The stimpmeter reads at 13 feet so these will be fast greens.
Our Best Bet to win this the US Open is on Jon Rahm who is listed at a +950 price by Bovada. Rahm comes off a 4th place finish at the Tour Championship at East Lake two weeks ago — but he has been the second-best golfer on the tour over the last two months to Dustin Johnson. Rahm does thrive on difficult courses. The most difficult events since the restart have been the Memorial and the BMW Championship — and Rahm won both events with the latter being in a playoff duel with Johnson where he won with his putter in the playoff. With Johnson coming off the emotional high for winning the Tour Championship, I think the stage is set for Rahm to win his first major this weekend. He has the skill set that should help him play well at Wing Foot. Rahm ranked 2nd on the tour in Bogey Avoidance, 3rd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green, and leds the PGA Tour in Shots-Gained: Total for the 2019-20 season that ended with the Tour Championship two weeks ago. Rahm also has strong wedge skills to help him get out of trouble as he ranked 11th on the tour in Shots-Gained: Scrambling. Additionally, Rahm is in great form. Over his last twenty-four rounds of play, he ranks 2nd in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 3rd in Greens-In-Regulation. Rahm also ranks 3rd in the field over the last two years in his putting performance on Poa Annua greens. Rahm has performed consistently well at major championships where he has finished top-15 or better in five of his last six events. Rahm was tied for 3rd place at the US Open last year at Pebble Beach. Rahm is linked with Phil Mickelson for head-to-head betting for Round One. At 50-years old, Mickelson’s best days are behind him. He was just tied for 44th place at the Safeway Open last week in what was a much easier course than Winged Foot. He was 137th in the field last week in Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee while hitting the fairway in just 12 of the 56 holes he played. Over his last six tournaments, he has hit twelve fewer fairways versus the field — and this inaccuracy spells trouble for him this week. Frankly, with Mickelson returning to Winged Foot where he blew his best chance to win a US Open tournament that has eluded him throughout his career and with him promoting his new coffee brand while here, his attentions are elsewhere. Take Rahm (7528) in head-to-head betting propositions for Round One versus Mickelson (7527). Best of luck for us -- Frank.
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09-17-20 |
Tommy Fleetwood -130 v. Abraham Ancer |
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74-71 |
Loss |
-130 |
1 h 0 m |
Show
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The US Open takes place at the Winged Foot Country Club in Mamaroneck, New York. Winged Foot hosted the 2006 US Open where both Colin Montgomerie and Phil Mickelson blew up with a pair of double bogeys to hand the championship to Geoff Ogilvy. He won with a score of five-over-par which was the last time the winner of one of the four major tournaments finished above par. That event also saw the professionals average just 1.8 birdies per round which is the lowest number at a major in the last fourteen years. Bogey-Avoidance will be one of the key metrics to consider when handicapping this event. Scrambling is also important — Oglivy along with the top-three runner-ups all excelled in this metric in 2006 here. Ogilvy was just 119th in the field that week in Driving Accuracy so that is not a metric that I will be privileging. Length off the tee will be helpful with this course consisting of 7469 yards which will make it the 5th longest US Open in its history. This Par-70 tournament will require the professionals to use all fourteen of their clubs. Narrow fairways are a defining feature of Winged Foot. The rough will be a big challenge as per normal at US Opens as well. Golfers missing the fairway will immediately be confronted with rough that will likely be three to four inches thick. And without a crowd forming a gallery around each hole, the pros will not be bailed out by matted-down grass from sitting fans. Seven of the Par-4 holes are 467 yards or longer. Three of the Par-3s are at least 210 yards. The conventional wisdom is that ball-striking will be critical this week — so assessing metrics like Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green and Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green will be important. Yet with the fairways so narrow, banking on golfers always finding the short grass may be Fool’s Gold. There may be value in considering the bigger hitters since if everyone is going to be in the rough, at least being closer to the green will be of benefit. Shots-Gained: Off-the-Tee will be a metric I consider. Putting will also play a critical role this week. The greens will consist of a Poa Annua/Bentgrass blend at an 80/20% ratio. The stimpmeter reads at 13 feet so these will be fast greens. Our Long Shot Bet on a golfer outside the top-ten is on Tommy Fleetwood who is listed at +3300 to win the US Open according to Bovada. Fleetwood would usually have shorter odds for this tournament but he was not in top form this summer with his best result on the PGA Tour being his tie for 29th place at the PGA Championship. But the encouraging aspect to Fleetwood’s game is that he comes off a tie for 3rd place at the Portugal Master’s last week which he attended to work on getting back his strong ball-striking fundamentals. Mission accomplished as his Tee-to-Green irons were outstanding last week in an event that culminated with him shooting seven-under par in the final round. Fleetwood was in contention at the PGA Championship before a disappointing Sunday effort. But he has the top-end skills to win this event. He made the cut at all twelve of the major championships he has competed at since the US Open in 2017 where he finished in 4th place. He also finished in 2nd place at the 2018 US Open. Fleetwood is linked with Abraham Ancer for Round One betting propositions this week. Ancer comes off a tie for 18th place at the Tour Championship but he does tend to struggle at the most challenging tournaments. He was tied for 58th place at The Memorial and tied for 33rd place at the BMW Championship. Ancer is solid in most aspects of his game — but he does not excel at one particular skill set. He ranked just 42nd in Shots-Gained: Tee-to-Green in 2019-20. More worrisome this week, he ranked only 45th in Shots-Gained: Approach-the-Green which could be trouble if and when he gets into the rough. Take Fleetwood (7523) in head-to-head betting propositions versus Ancer (7524). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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