03-22-16 |
St. Mary's v. Valparaiso -3.5 |
|
44-60 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* St. Mary's/Valpo ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Valparaiso -3.5
The Valparaiso Crusaders certainly felt like they belonged in the NCAA Tournament, but they aren't feeling sorry for themselves. Instead, they are taking care of business thus far in the NIT.
Indeed, they rolled Texas Southern 84-73 and then topped a very good Florida State team from the ACC two days later 81-69. The Crusaders are now 16-1 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of nearly 19 points per game.
Valpo has a huge rest advantage here against St. Mary's. It last played on March 17, while St. Mary's last played two days ago in a home win over Georgia. The Gaels have had to travel to Valpo on short notice and have had little time to prepare for the Crusaders. That's a big disadvantage.
St. Mary's is 2-10 ATS in road games off one or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons. Valpo is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning percentage of better than 80% over the last two seasons. The Crusaders are 9-0 ATS versus teams who shoot 45% or better and allow 42% shooting or worse over the last two seasons. These three trends combine for a 26-2 system backing the Crusaders. Take Valpo Tuesday.
|
03-20-16 |
St. Joe's v. Oregon -6.5 |
Top |
64-69 |
Loss |
-106 |
13 h 50 m |
Show
|
20* St. Joe's/Oregon CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -6.5
The Oregon Ducks just keep flying under the radar. Of all the No. 1 seeds, they are the one that most are picking to get upset before the Final Four. But make no mistake, this team is the real deal and one that will be playing in the Final Four in my opinion.
The Ducks cruised to a 29-6 season and have won nine straight coming in, including an 88-57 win over Utah in the Pac-12 Championship and a 91-52 win over Holy Cross in the opening round. I like the way this team is playing right now, and only laying 6.5 to St. Joe's in what will be a home atmosphere in Spokane is simply not enough.
I like this St. Joe's team and was on them against Cincinnati, but they are in trouble here. The Hawks allowed Cincinnati's woeful offense to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and gave up 76 points and 10 3-pointers.
If the Bearcats had one of their best offensive nights of the season, just imagine what this highly-efficient Oregon offense that scores 79.2 points per game is going to do? St. Joe's has won four of its last six, but it has also given up 82.5 points per game during that stretch, and none of those opponents are as good as Oregon offensively.
Oregon is 6-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in two straight games this season. The Ducks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games. Oregon is 53-23-3 ATS in its last 79 games following an ATS win. Take Oregon Sunday.
|
03-20-16 |
Wisconsin v. Xavier -4.5 |
Top |
66-63 |
Loss |
-104 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
25* East Region GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier -4.5
Xavier represents my favorite play in the East Region of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. I look for them to roll over the Wisconsin Badgers as short 4.5-point favorites today.
Xavier ended up covering in a 71-53 win over Weber State as 13.5-point favorites, but this game was a bigger blowout than the final score even scored. The Musketeers missed more than 10 wide open layups, otherwise it would have been an even bigger trouncing. But since they didn't win by more, this line is lower than it should be.
Wisconsin's win over Pitt is also keeping this line lower than it should be. The Badgers managed to win despite only scoring 47 points as Pitt went ice cold in the 2nd half. These teams combined for only 90 points, which is absolutely embarrassing with the 30-second shot clock.
I believe Wisconsin is a fraud and is due for a huge regression against the right opponent. Xavier is that opponent as it has a team with far better athletes and scoring. Purdue is very similar to Xavier in terms of size and personnel. The Boilermakers held a combined 67-48 rebounding edge and a 47-28 edge at the free throw line against Wisconsin in both regular-season meetings.
Wisconsin is 2-8 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half of two straight games this season. Remember, this team lost to Nebraska 58-70 in the Big Ten Tournament. The Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. Big East opponents. The Musketeers are 21-4-1 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games, and 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. Xavier is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 non-conference games as well. Bet Xavier Sunday.
|
03-20-16 |
Stephen F Austin v. Notre Dame -1 |
|
75-76 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -1
The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers due to their 70-56 upset win over West Virginia. The Mountaineers played their worst game of the season to give that game away, with a ton of turnovers and wide open layups missed all game long.
Notre Dame is a veteran team that won't make those same mistakes. The Fighting Irish are one of the best turnover teams in the country as they only give it away 10 times per game. They are a much better offensive team than West Virginia, shooting 47.4% for season and 37.3% from 3-point range. They will beat the Stephen F. Austin press and convert, unlike WVU.
I love backing great point guards against the press, and the Fighting Irish certainly have one in their best player in Demetrius Jackson. He averages 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game. He also only turns the ball over two times per game, which is pretty good considering how often the ball is in his hands.
Notre Dame is 19-9 ATS in road games vs. teams who make 45% or more of their shots over the last three seasons. The Fighting Irish are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games after 15-plus games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game. Roll with Notre Dame Sunday.
|
03-19-16 |
Connecticut +8 v. Kansas |
Top |
61-73 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 57 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on UConn +8
The UConn Huskies are showing great value today as big underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks. This is a game that they can take down to the wire and possibly pull off the upset.
UConn is clearly one of the hottest teams in the country right now. It rolled through the AAC Tournament, and it came from behind to beat Colorado 74-67 in the Sweet 16. I like the fact that Colorado played the early game on Thursday and was able to watch Kansas after, too.
This is a good matchup for the Huskies. Their strength is their defense, both on the interior and with their guards. They give up just 63.2 points per game on 38.3% shooting against teams that average 72.5 points on 43.6% shooting. They pressure the opponent all the way out to half court in their man defense. Their ability to guard Frank Mason and Devonte Graham on the perimeter is going to be huge in this one.
UConn is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 NCAA Tournament games, and 37-15-1 ATS in its last 53 neutral site games. The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. Kansas is 2-9 ATS vs. excellent ball handling teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last two seasons. Bet UConn Saturday.
|
03-19-16 |
Arkansas-Little Rock v. Iowa State -6 |
|
61-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa State -6
The Iowa State Cyclones exorcised their demons from losing to UAB last year with an impressive 94-81 win over Iona in the opening round. Look for this team to continue playing with a chip on its shoulder today.
Iowa State caught a break when Arkansas-Little Rock upset Purdue in double-overtime. Purdue would have been a bad matchup for them because of its size, but this is a much better one. Little-Rock overcame a 13-point deficit with under four minutes remaining to win in double-OT. They will be the more tired team because of it, and they played after Iowa State, so the Cyclones had a chance to watch them after beating Iona.
Little-Rock is a smaller team similar to what Iona was. The Cyclones feast on small teams because they can't be stopped offensively. They rank 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency, and they are one of only two teams in the land with at least six players averaging 10 points per game coming into the tournament.
Little-Rock is 0-5 ATS in its last five games vs. Big 12 opponents. Iowa State is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a winning record. The Cyclones are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. Iowa State is 13-4 ATS in all tournament games over the last three seasons. Take Iowa State Saturday.
|
03-18-16 |
Cincinnati v. St Joseph's +1.5 |
|
76-78 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* Cincinnati/St. Joe's Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on St. Joseph's +1.5
The St. Joseph's Hawks have been one of the most underrated teams in college basketball all season. Bettors who backed them all year would have gone 22-11 ATS in all of their games. And the Hawks continue to get no respect as underdogs to Cincinnati here.
The Hawks won the Atlantic 10 Tournament with wins over three of the best teams in the conference, including two tournament teams in Dayton and VCU. They rolled VCU 87-74 in the Championship Game, and now they come into the NCAA Tournament with a ton of confidence.
The tandem of Isaiah Miles (18.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg) and DeAndre Bembrey (17.3 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 4.5 apg) gives the Hawks one of the best frontcourts in the country. These two have really stepped up their games even more down the stretch as the Hawks have put up at least 82 points in four of their last five games overall, and 70 or more points in 12 straight. They're really unstoppable offensively.
Cincinnati is a very good defensive team, but I think it will struggle to find easy baskets in this one. The Hawks force teams to beat them with the 3-pointer, and the Bearcats just have never been a very good outside shooting team. While they are better this season only slightly, they still shoot just 34.5% from 3-point range.
I've watched plenty of Cincinnati this season, and it is simply too predictable. Time and time again, Troy Caupain has to bail them out with a last second shot on offense. And he isn't a very efficient scorer at all, shooting just 37.5% from the field and 32.1% from the 3-point line. He simply is asked to do too much for this team, especially with all the nagging injuries right now. Farad Cobb (knee), Gary Clark (ankle), Caupain (back) and Shaquille Thomas (groin) are all banged up heading into the tournament.
What stood out to me in this one is common opponents. These teams had three common opponents this year in George Washington, Temple and VCU. St. Joseph's went 4-1 against them and outscored them by 7.0 points per game, while Cincinnati went 2-2 against them and outscored them by only 0.5 points per game.
St. Joseph's beat Temple 66-65 on the road, while Cincinnati lost to Temple 70-77 at home and 65-67 on the road. Cincinnati only beat George Washington by 5 on a neutral court, while St. Joseph's beat George Washington by a combined 24 points in two meetings this season, both of which were away from home. They won by 18 on the road and by 6 on a neutral court.
Cincinnati is 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 points or less over the last three seasons. St. Joseph's is 9-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season. The Hawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. St. Joe's is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games. These four trends combine for a perfect 28-0 system backing the Hawks. Roll with St. Joseph's Friday.
|
03-18-16 |
Stephen F Austin v. West Virginia -7 |
Top |
70-56 |
Loss |
-108 |
45 h 14 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on West Virginia -7
The Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers and the betting public heading into the NCAA Tournament. That's because they haven't lost a game in the 2016 calendar year, so they are the hot, trendy pick coming in. I'm not buying it.
Stephen F. Austin played in the lowly Southland Conference, going 20-0 against conference competition this season when you include the Southland Tournament. The second and third place finishers in the Southland this season were Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Incarnate Word, if that tells you anything about how bad this conference was.
A closer look at SFA's non-conference record tells the story about how good this team really is. The Lumberjacks went 7-5 outside the conference. They lost by 42 at Baylor, which is a team that West Virginia beat twice this season by double-digits both times. The Lumberjacks also lost by 10 at Northern Iowa, lost to AAC bottom-feeder Tulane on a neutral court, and lost at Arizona State by 7 and at UAB by 10.
So, West Virginia is going to be the best team that SFA has faced all season. The Mountaineers finished 2nd in the Big 12 regular season standings and 2nd in the Conference Tournament. Despite that feat in the toughest conference in the country, the Mountaineers continue to get no respect from anyone. They should be more than a 7-point favorite here.
Both teams like to force turnovers with up-tempo pressure, but West Virginia is better at it. It presses on 37 percent of opponents' possessions, which is the highest press rate in the nation. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that WVU grabs more of its own misses (42.1 percent) on offense than any other team in the country. Those extra possessions will go a long way in helping the Mountaineers cover this 7-point spread.
Stephen F. Austin played the 260th-toughest schedule in the country, while West Virginia played the 24th-toughest. The Mountaineers went 11-2 in non-conference games with their only two losses coming on the road to Virginia and Florida. All 11 of their wins came by 8 points or more, including 10 by 13 points or more.
West Virginia is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 postseason tournament games, including 19-6 ATS in its last 25 NCAA Tournament games. The Mountaineers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall. I'll lay the points with the more battle-tested team from the Big 12 laying the small number here. Take West Virginia Friday.v
|
03-18-16 |
CS Bakersfield v. Oklahoma -14 |
Top |
68-82 |
Push |
0 |
42 h 9 m |
Show
|
25* NCAA Tournament Opening Round GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -14
I believe the Oklahoma Sooners come into the NCAA Tournament getting overlooked. They were ranked No. 1 in the country at one point this season, but they failed to even earn a No. 1 seed after letting Kansas overtake them in the Big 12. Their somewhat shaky finish has them undervalued.
But make no mistake, Oklahoma is a national title contender. The Sooners finished 25-7 this season five of their seven losses coming by 5 points or less, including a triple-OT loss at Kansas, a 5-point loss at Iowa State, another 4-point loss to Kansas, and a 2-point loss to WVU in the Big 12 Tournament in which Buddy Hield hit the game-winner, only to have it called off as it came just after the clock hit zero.
I think that loss in the Big 12 Tournament has given the Sooners some extra time to correct some mistakes and get back to playing how they were when they were the No. 1 team in the country. Of course, stepping outside of the rugged Big 12, the best conference in the country, certainly works in their favor here as well.
Now the Sooners get to play one of the worst teams they have all season in CS-Bakersfield. The Sooners went 12-0 in non-conference games this season, outscoring opponents by an average of 19.3 points per game. That includes road wins over Memphis, Villanova (by 23), Hawaii and LSU.
Bakersfield played in the weak WAC this season and finished in a tie for second place. It went 10-5 in non-conference games while playing the 322nd-toughest schedule in the country. It went 1-4 against the RPI Top 100 and only played one team in the RPI Top 50. Two losses that stood out to me were a 35-point loss at Saint Mary's and a 16-point loss at Arizona State. Their biggest win all season came against Grand Canyon University.
Now, Bakersfield is up against the best team it has faced all season in Oklahoma. The Sooners essentially get a home game to boot as this game will be played in Oklahoma City. The Sooners went 14-1 at home this season, and while it's not a true home game, it might as well be. They will feed off of the energy of the crowd and put it on Bakersfield from the opening tip in what I expect to be one of the biggest blowouts of the first round.
After playing the 17th-toughest schedule in the country, and going through the Big 12 gauntlet, the Sooners will welcome this game against lowly CS-Bakersfield to get back on track. They can name the score here. Bet Oklahoma Friday.
|
03-17-16 |
Providence -2 v. USC |
Top |
70-69 |
Loss |
-104 |
25 h 21 m |
Show
|
20* Providence/USC Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on on Providence -2
The Providence Friars looked like a Final Four team early in the year. They opened 14-1 with their only loss coming to Michigan State on a neutral court. But then they got into a bit of a rut midseason and may have been worn down from their lack of depth.
However, they regrouped in time to go 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their final five games overall and are back to playing how they did at the beginning of the season. I like this momentum they have built up, and I also like the fact that they will be rested coming in so their lack of depth won't be an issue here.
The Friars boast not on, but two, of the best players in the country. Ben Bentil is a forward who scores 21.2 points per game and grabs 7.8 rebounds per game. He is impossible to stop. Kris Dunn is arguably the best point guard in the land, averaging 165.0 points, 6.4 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game.
USC has gone the other direction down the stretch. It is 3-7 in its last 10 games overall with all seven losses coming by 7 points or more, and four by double-digits, so it has rarely even been competitive. Now the Trojans have to head all the way out to the East Coast in Raleigh, NC in what will be a favorable crowd for the Friars.
All of USC's key wins this season have come at home, while it is just 5-10 in road/neutral games this season. Providence has been great on the road, going 10-6 in road/neutral games. The Trojans have just one road/neutral win over a Top 50 opponent, which was Wichita State, who were playing without Fred VanVleet that game.
Providence beat Arizona on a neutral court this season, a team that is much stronger than USC from the Pac-12. USC lost to Xavier by 10 on a neutral court, a team that is only slightly better than Providence.
The Friars are 10-2 ATS in March road games over the last three seasons. Providence is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 neutral site games. USC is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game over the last two years. The Trojans are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. Big East opponents. The Trojans are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Take Providence Thursday.
|
03-17-16 |
Fresno State +8.5 v. Utah |
|
69-80 |
Loss |
-105 |
24 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Fresno State +8.5
The Fresno State Bulldogs are playing as well as almost anyone entering the NCAA Tournament. Everyone picked San Diego State to win the Mountain West, but the Bulldogs were having non of it. They kept rolling right along en route to a MWC Tournament title.
Indeed, Fresno State is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall. That includes wins over UNLV (by 13), Colorado State (by 8) and San Diego State (by 5) in their three conference tournament games. They also went on the road and beat Wyoming by 4 as 2-point dogs, New Mexico by 10 as 6.5-point dogs, and Utah State by 1 as 3.5-point dogs.
Utah also finished strong, aside from an absolute laugher in a 57-88 loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Utes had won nine straight prior to that loss, which I believe has them overvalued coming in. Each of their final four wins during that streak came by 8 points or fewer.
But what really stands out to me is common opponents. These teams are pretty much dead even in common opponents. Fresno State is 3-3 against the same teams that Utah has played, winning by 0.5 points per game. Utah is 3-3 against those same teams, actually getting outscored by 0.2 points per game.
Fresno State went on the road and played both Arizona and Oregon tough this season, two teams I believe to be better than Utah in the Pac-12. They lost by 13 as 12.5-point dogs at Arizona and by 5 as 11.5-point dogs at Oregon in a pair of true road games. Utah was beaten three times by Oregon this season by 31, 18 and 10 points. The Utes also only beat San Diego State by 5 at home, another MWC team that Fresno State beat twice and lost to in OT in the other meeting.
Fresno State likes to limit possessions by playing at a slow pace similar to Utah. The good thing is that Fresno State forces turnovers on 20.8 percent of opponents' possession, good for 37th-best in the country. Utah is prone to turnovers of its own, and it struggles against teams that play at a slow pace and force turnovers. Teams similar to Fresno State in that respect are Oregon, Wichita State and Miami. Utah lost to Miami by 24, Wichita State by 17, and Oregon by a combined 59 points in their three meetings.
The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games following a win. The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. Fresno State is 8-0 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS vs. teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games this season. These five trends combine for a perfect 34-0 system backing the Bulldogs. Bet Fresno State Thursday.
|
03-17-16 |
Arkansas-Little Rock +9 v. Purdue |
|
85-83 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 51 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Arkansas-Little Rock +9
Arkansas-Little Rock is one of my favorite small-school teams in the country. I've had the opportunity to watch them a handful of times, and I come away impressed every time. This team is a Giant Killer that could pull off the upset against Purdue in the opening round.
The Trojans just completed a history 29-4 season and beat some very good teams along the way. They earned two true road wins against both San Diego State (49-43) and Tulsa (64-60) as 16.5-point and 10.5-point underdogs in non-conference action.
Three of their four losses this year came by 6 points or less, so that makes for a 32-1 system backing them when you figure they have only lost one game all season by more than 9 points. They capped off their season with a 20-point win over Louisiana-Monroe in the Sun Belt Championship.
KenPom has the Trojans as the 47th-best team in the country. They force turnovers at a high rate (21.4 percent), play at a very slow pace, and they take care of the ball (15.9 percent turnover rate). They hit 38.7 percent of their 3-pointers offensively as well.
Defensively, the Trojans let teams fire away from deep (40 percent of attempts), yet hold them to just 30.1 percent (7th in the country). So they pack it in and don't let you get easy shots inside, which is the perfect formula for beating Purdue, which focuses on getting the ball to its bigs on the interior. The Trojans are the 28th-best team in the country defensively in allowing fewest post up points per possession.
Purdue turns the ball over a lot (17.8 percent), which ranked 11th in Big Ten play this season. Little Rock has the sixth-best steals rate (6.3 percent) in the country, and again forces turnovers on 21.4 percent of opponents possessions.
Little Rock is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% or more of its games this season. Little Rock is 6-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus per game this season. The Trojans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record overall, and 7-1 ATS in their last eight non-conference games. Roll with Arkansas-Little Rock Thursday.
|
03-17-16 |
Yale v. Baylor -5 |
Top |
79-75 |
Loss |
-108 |
18 h 30 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -5
The Baylor Bears played the third-toughest schedule in the entire country and managed to get through it at 21-11. Their 10-8 mark in Big 12 play was only good enough for a tie for 5th place in the regular season. And their only two non-conference losses this season, both on the road to Oregon and Texas A&M, obviously don’t look bad now.
Baylor seems to make a run in the NCAA Tournament almost every year. It has a very difficult style to prepare for with its zone defense causing opponents all kinds of issues. But even more frustrating for the opposition is the way they attack the offensive glass. Their 14.0 second-chance points per game are the most in the Big 12, and they outscore opponents by 5.6 second-chance points per game, which is the highest differential among major conference teams.
Rico Gathers (11.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg) is the biggest culprit as he rebounds 19.1 percent of his team’s missed shots when he’s on the floor. Taurean Prince (15.5 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is an NBA prospect, while Al Freeman (11.5 ppg,) and Johnathan Motley (11.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg) are key contributors as well. Lester Medford (9.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg) runs the show at the point.
Yale (22-6) went 13-1 in Ivy League play to beat out Princeton by one game and punch its ticket into the big dance. Outside the conference, the Bulldogs went 9-5 and only really lost to the best teams they played. They only lost by 2 at SMU and by 4 at Illinois, but they were blown out on the road by Duke (by 19), Albany (by 34) and USC (by 12). They had only one RPI Top 100 win all season, which came against Princeton at home by 4.
Baylor is 8-0 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive conference games this season. The Bears are 7-0 ATS in road games versus teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game over the last two seasons. Scott Drew is 28-14 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less as the coach of Baylor. That loss was a 4-point defeat to Kansas in what was essentially a home game for the Jayhawks in Kansas City.
This is one of the weakest lines in the opening round of the tournament in my opinion. Baylor should be more than a 5-point favorite over Yale. The Bulldogs are getting too much credit for the season they had in the Ivy League, which is one of the worst conferences in the country.
We saw them get blown out by Duke, USC, and Albany out of conference, while also losing to SMU and Illinois. Now they will face arguably the best team they have all season in Baylor, and they’re only getting five points? Give me a break
Baylor will dominate the boards like it has all season and frustrate Yale with its length in the zone defense. The Bears also have the better guards in this one, which is key. Baylor forces more turnovers per possession than any team that Yale has faced all season. Those extra possessions will add up to a blowout win for the Bears. Bet Baylor Thursday.
|
03-16-16 |
Tulsa +4 v. Michigan |
Top |
62-67 |
Loss |
-105 |
34 h 45 m |
Show
|
20* Tulsa/Michigan First Four ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +4
Without question, Tulsa (20-11) is the one team that most feel does not belong in the NCAA Tournament. But the Golden Hurricane will be using that as motivation to prove their naysayers wrong. UCLA was in the same position last year and went on to advance to the Sweet 16 as a No. 11 seed.
The Golden Hurricane finished in a three-way tie for third place in the American Athletic Conference. Four of the top six teams in this conference made the big dance, with the exceptions being Houston and SMU (not eligible). The committee didn’t penalize Tulsa for losing twice to Memphis in 12 days by a combined 32 points.
Perhaps the biggest reason Tulsa got the nod is that it had 8 wins against the RPI Top 100, going 8-8 against those teams with the 62nd-toughest schedule in the country. Wins over then-No. 9 Wichita State and then-No. 16 SMU certainly bolstered their chances.
This is a veteran Tulsa team that returned five starters from last year and has seven seniors in the nine-man rotation. It has three very talented players carrying the load in James Woodard (15.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg), Shaquille Harrison (14.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.1 apg) and Pat Birt (12.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg).
The betting public is all over Michigan, moving the opening line from -3 all the way up to -4 and -4.5 in some places. This is no surprise with all of the negative publicity the Golden Hurricane are receiving heading into the NCAA Tournament. Literally nobody had Tulsa in the field Sunday afternoon, except for the committee.
I believe Haith and this veteran roster are going to use that as motivation. We saw UCLA make a run to the Sweet 16 when nobody thought they should have gotten in last year, and this team is just as capable. With seven seniors in the rotation, these guys will be out to prove a point come Wednesday night.
Tulsa is 11-2 ATS in road games off two straight games where its opponent was called for 22 or more fouls over the last three seasons. Frank Haith is 54-34 ATS in road games versus good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots in all games he has coached. Bet Tulsa Wednesday.
|
03-15-16 |
Vanderbilt +4 v. Wichita State |
|
50-70 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* Vanderbilt/Wichita State First Four No-Brainer on Vanderbilt +4
While everyone is calling Wichita State the most dangerous team in the field, equally scary is Vanderbilt (19-13), which many projected not to even make the NCAA Tournament after losing to Tennessee 65-67 in their first game of the SEC Tournament. Ultimately, that loss did not keep them out because they had too many other quality wins.
Indeed, the Commodores had 8 wins against the RPI top 100 this season. They have wins over then-No. 8 Texas A&M and then-No. 16 Kentucky. One sign that this team is better than its record is that it didn’t fare well in close games this season. Indeed, the Commodores suffered 10 of their 13 losses by single-digits, so they were in almost every game they played.
This is a veteran team that has plenty of balance with five players averaging 8.9 points per game or more. Leading the way are a pair of future NBA guards in Wade Baldwin IV (14.3 ppg, 5.2 apg) and Damian Jones (14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg). Luke Kornet (8.9 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.0 bpg) does a little bit of everything, and he can shoot the 3-pointer as well, making him a tough matchup.
I believe Wichita State to be overvalued due to what it has done in previous seasons. But this isn’t the same Shockers team that we’ve become accustomed to, and even with a healthy Fred VanVleet, they lost their final two meetings with Northern Iowa. VanVleet and Ron Baker simply have had to do too much.
I love the balance and experience that Vanderbilt has, and I believe it to be the most dangerous double-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament this year. Wichita State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 neutral site games, time and time again being overvalued.
Plays on any team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite are 63-27 (70%) ATS since 1997.
Vanderbilt is 46-27 ATS in its last 73 games off a loss by 6 points or less. The Commodores are 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games following an ATS loss. Vanderbilt is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games. Take Vanderbilt Tuesday.
|
03-15-16 |
Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Gulf Coast -5.5 |
|
65-96 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 33 m |
Show
|
15* Fairleigh/FGC 2016 NCAA Tournament Opener on Florida Gulf Coast -5.5
It’s been three years since Florida Gulf Coast (20-13) became the first No. 15 seed to advance to the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament. But now the high-flying Eagles are back. They won the Atlantic Sun Tournament after finishing second in the regular season standings behind North Florida.
Florida Gulf Coast is led by a trio of double-digits scorers. Leading the way is Marc Eddy Norelia, who averages 17.2 points and 9.2 rebounds per game while shooting 53.9 percent from the field. He is joined by Christian Terrell (12.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg) and Zach Johnson (11.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) in double figures scoring.
Fairleigh Dickinson (18-14) played a very weak schedule, which ranked 298th in the country. It went 0-1 against the RPI top 100 out of conference. That was a blowout 54-91 loss at Villanova in their opening game of the season, but the Knights also lost to the likes of Army, Fordham, Delaware, Princeton, Temple and Rutgers out of conference.
Unfortunately for the Knights, they grade out as the worst defensive team in the entire 2016 field. They do force turnovers at an average of 15 per game, but they also give up 78.2 points per game on 45.2% shooting.
The Eagles are 9-1 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games since 1997. Florida Gulf Coast is 11-0 ATS in March road games since 1997. The Eagles are also 12-1 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games.
The Eagles are a very efficient offensive team that puts up 77.0 points per game on 47.7% shooting. They will have their way with a Fairleigh Dickinson team that gives up 78.2 points per game this season. Florida Gulf Coast can also defend, limiting opponents to 41.5% shooting on the season.
Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after four or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA Tournament are a very profitable 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1997. Bet Florida Gulf Coast Tuesday.
|
03-13-16 |
Memphis +5.5 v. Connecticut |
|
58-72 |
Loss |
-106 |
4 h 2 m |
Show
|
15* Memphis/UConn AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Memphis +5.5
The UConn Huskies have played their way into the NCAA Tournament with wins over Cincinnati and Temple the last two days. Now I look for the Huskies to take a breath, and to not play with the intensity they did the last two games with their tournament lives at stake.
Memphis is the team with its tournament life at stake. The Tigers can only make the NCAA Tournament with a win Sunday, and I look for them to fight, scratch and claw their way to a win and cover today as 5.5-point underdogs to the Huskies.
Memphis has saved its best basketball for last. It has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall with three straight wins by 20-plus points. The Tigers won by 30 at East Carolina, by 22 over Tulsa, and by 20 over Tulane. They have had an easy go of it, while UConn played four overtimes against Cincinnati two days ago and will likely feel the effects of that today.
UConn is 2-10 ATS following three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Memphis is 94-54 ATS in its last 148 games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) after 15-plus games. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with Memphis Sunday.
|
03-13-16 |
Kentucky -3.5 v. Texas A&M |
|
82-77 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* Kentucky/Texas A&M SEC Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -3.5
The Kentucky Wildcats want revenge from a 77-79 loss at Texas A&M in their lone meeting this season. I like their chances of getting it in blowout fashion today considering how well they are playing coming into this game.
Kentucky is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. That includes a 9-point win at Florida as 4.5-point favorites, a 17-point home win over LSU as 13.5-point favorites, a 26-point win over Alabama as 13.5-point favorites, and a 13-point win over Georgia as 10.5-point favorites.
Kentucky is 24-10 ATS in its last 34 games when revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite. The Wildcats are 45-26 ATS in their last 71 games when revenging a road loss. Kentucky is 20-8-2 ATS in its last 30 vs. SEC opponents. The Aggies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. Take Kentucky Sunday.
|
03-13-16 |
Louisiana-Monroe v. Arkansas-Little Rock -4 |
Top |
50-70 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 47 m |
Show
|
20* Conference Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Arkansas Little-Rock -4
Arkansas-Little Rock (28-4) has been the best team in the Sun Belt all season. It has gone 18-3 in conference play this year, and now it is one win away from playing in the NCAA Tournament. The Trojans aren't about to let this opportunity slip away by losing to LA-Monroe.
Little Rock is 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three of its last four over the last two season. Little Rock is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of its games this season. The Trojans are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Trojans. Bet Arkansas-Little Rock Sunday.
|
03-12-16 |
Virginia v. North Carolina -1 |
Top |
57-61 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
20* Virginia/UNC ACC Championship No-Brainer on North Carolina -1
I've successfully backed the North Carolina Tar Heels in each of their first two games of the conference tournament. I'm going to continue riding them today against Virginia given the ease of which they've dismantled their first two opponents.
The Tar Heels opened with an 88-71 win as 7.5-point favorites over Pittsburgh. They were even more impressive yesterday, steamrolling Notre Dame 78-47 as 8-point favorites. So they are going to be very fresh coming into this game against Virginia, which barely escaped with a 73-68 win over Miami yesterday.
The Tar Heels also want revenge on the Cavaliers after losing 74-79 at Virginia on February 27th toward the end of the regular season. This time they will be playing on a neutral court, and they'll get their revenge with the way they are playing right now.
North Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games. The Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Take North Carolina Saturday.
|
03-12-16 |
Connecticut v. Temple +3.5 |
Top |
77-62 |
Loss |
-106 |
17 h 50 m |
Show
|
25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Temple +3.5
The UConn Huskies just played in a four overtime thriller yesterday. It wasn't so thrilling for me as I had Cincinnati -1. The Bearcats hit a 3-pointer to go up 3 with 0.8 seconds left, only for the Huskies to hit a miracle 60-footer and force a 4th overtime. Of course, they went on to win the game after that.
But now the Huskies are going to be running on fumes today. Their best players obviously played huge minutes yesterday. Daniel Hamilton played 55, Sterling Gibbs played 54, Rodney Purvis played 49, Amida Brimah played 47, and Jalen Adams played 43.
Temple made easy work of South Florida in a 79-62 victory yesterday. The Owls will be fresh and ready to go. They will also be motivated to earn some respect, because they haven't been getting it all season. They aren't getting it here, either, as 3.5-point underdogs to the Huskies when they should be favored.
Indeed, Temple won the American Athletic Conference regular season title with a 14-4 record. The Owls beat UConn outright as underdogs twice en route to that title. They won 63-58 as 5-point home dogs, and 55-53 as 10-point road dogs. They are clearly the better team as they proven during the regular season, and now they are in a tremendous situation here given the Huskies going to 4 OT yesterday.
The Owls are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference opponent. Temple is 14-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record this season. The Owls are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win. Temple is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Temple Saturday.
|
03-12-16 |
Old Dominion -1 v. Middle Tennessee |
|
53-55 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Old Dominion -1
The Old Dominion Monarchs have rolled through the Conference USA Tournament to make the Championship Game. The ease of which they've won has me on them today as I look for their momentum to carry them to a C-USA title and a NCAA Tournament berth.
Old Dominion is playing its best basketball of the season, going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. In the conference tournament alone, the Monarchs beat FAU by 26 as 10.5-point favorites, LA Tech by 16 as 3-point favorites, and Western Kentucky by 12 as 4-point favorites. They aren't about to be denied now.
Middle Tennessee has to play in an exhausting 99-90 win over Marchall yesterday. The Thundering Herd play at an extremely fast pace, and that up-and-down game will have taken its toll on the Blue Raiders here. I also like the fact that Old Dominion will be out for revenge from a 3-point loss in the regular season, and a 7-point loss to Middle Tennessee in the conference tournament last season.
Plays on neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (OLD DOMINION) - an average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against an average defensive team (67-74 PPG), after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 53-20 (72.6%) ATS since 1997. Plays on neutral court teams (OLD DOMINION) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite are 26-7 (78.8%) ATS since 1997. Bet Old Dominion Saturday.
|
03-12-16 |
LSU +7 v. Texas A&M |
|
38-71 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 49 m |
Show
|
15* LSU/Texas A&M SEC Early ANNIHILATOR on LSU +7
The LSU Tigers are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. They took care of business in an 84-75 win over Tennessee yesterday in their SEC Tournament opener, and now I look for them to give Texas A&M a run for its money today.
Texas A&M was fortunate to come away with a 72-66 victory over the Florida Gators yesterday. I believe LSU is a better team than Florida, and that will show today as the Tigers keep this one close.
This has been a very closely-contested series over the past couple seasons as three of the last four meetings have been decided by 6 points or less, including a 76-71 win for LSU in their most recent showdown on February 13th.
The Aggies are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 neutral site games. The Tigers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Saturday games. Look for the Tigers to simply want this game more given what's at stake for them. Roll with LSU Saturday.
|
03-11-16 |
Georgia v. South Carolina -1.5 |
Top |
65-64 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
20* CBB REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -1.5
South Carolina wants revenge from losing both meetings to Georgia this season, including a 72-74 heartbreaker on March 3rd about exactly a week ago. Given this spot for the Gamecocks, I like their chances of getting the job done.
They need a win to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament. But they also come in rested having last played on March 5th, while Georgia played yesterday in a 79-69 victory over Mississippi State. That edge in rest and preparation, plus the revenge factor, makes me love the Gamecocks today.
South Carolina is 6-0 ATS in road games after outrebounding an opponent by 15 or more over the last two seasons. The Gamecocks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. South Carolina is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games overall. Take South Carolina Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
Davidson v. St Bonaventure -2.5 |
|
90-86 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on St. Bonaventure -2.5
Despite a 22-7 record that has included a 10-1 mark in its last 11 games overall, St. Bonaventure still finds itself on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. The Bonnies want to leave no doubt with a win over Davidson today.
Given the situation, I like their chances of getting a win and cover. The Bonnies haven't played since March 5th, while Davidson played yesterday in a 78-63 victory over lowly LaSalle. That edge in rest and preparation is huge for the Bonnies here.
St. Bonaventure has won both meetings with Davidson over the last two seasons, including a 97-85 home victory as 1.5-point favorites this season. The Bonnies are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season. Take St. Bonaventure Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
Notre Dame v. North Carolina -7 |
|
47-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina -7
The North Carolina Tar Heels are showing excellent value as only 7-point favorites over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish today. I look for them to roll to victory tonight.
UNC made easy work of Pitt 88-71 yesterday. Now it faces a tired Notre Dame team that needed overtime to beat Duke 84-79 yesterday. That puts the Fighting Irish at a big disadvantage here.
Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (N CAROLINA) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent, playing their 2nd road game in 3 days are 98-51 (65.8%) ATS since 1997. UNC has actually lost three straight to Notre Dame by a combined 13 points and wants revenge here. Bet North Carolina Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
Alabama v. Kentucky -12 |
|
59-85 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Big Chalk BLOWOUT on Kentucky -12
The Kentucky Wildcats will be playing their first SEC Tournament game today and will make easy work of the Alabama Crimson Tide, who are playing their 2nd game in 2 days after a 91-83 victory over Ole Miss yesterday.
It's s that Kentucky owns Alabama. The Wildcats are 5-0 in the last five meetings, and they have won by 25, 16, 15, 22 and 7 points in those five. The last four have come by an average of 19.5 points per game. Take Kentucky Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
George Washington v. St. Joe's -1.5 |
Top |
80-86 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Joe's -1.5
The St. Joe's Hawks need a win to assure their spot int he NCAA Tournament. I believe they are undervalued right now due to losing their final two games of the regular season as well.
What I really like about this game is that St. Joe's comes in rested having last played on March 5th, while George Washington played yesterday in a 73-65 win over lowly Saint Louis and will be the more tired team.
St. Joe's won 84-66 as 4.5-point dogs at George Washington in their only meeting this season. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS versus good rebounding teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus board per game this season. Bet St. Joe's Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
Connecticut v. Cincinnati -1 |
|
104-97 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* AAC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Cincinnati -1
The Cincinnati Bearcats have proven they are a better team than UConn twice this season in beating the Huskies. I expect them to prove it for a 3rd time in the AAC Tournament today to secure their spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Cincinnati is one of the best defensive teams in the country, and it has a huge advantage inside against Connecticut. The Bearcats held the Huskies to 37.3% shooting in a 65-60 home victory, and 38.3% shooting in a 58-57 road win this year.
The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Bet Cincinnati Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
Florida v. Texas A&M -4 |
|
66-72 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* SEC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -4
The Texas A&M Aggies come in rested and ready to go today against Florida. The Aggies last played on March 5th, while Florida beat Arkansas 68-61 yesterday and will be playing a second consecutive day.
The Gators will now have to deal with arguably the best team in the SEC in Texas A&M. The Aggies are playing very well right now, too, going 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by 9 points or more. They also beat Kentucky by 2 at home.
Florida is 0-8 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent over the last two seasons. The Gators are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Roll with Texas A&M Friday.
|
03-11-16 |
Richmond v. Dayton -4.5 |
|
54-69 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Friday Early ANNIHILATOR on Dayton -4.5
Analysis will be posted shortly
|
03-11-16 |
Michigan v. Indiana -7.5 |
|
72-69 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 57 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana -7.5
Analysis will be posted shortly
|
03-10-16 |
UNLV v. Fresno State +1 |
|
82-95 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 17 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Night Line Mistake on Fresno State +1
I faded UNLV with success yesterday by cashing in Air Force +11. It was really never in doubt, but I did have to sweat out three overtimes as UNLV won a wild 108-102 game. Now, the Rebels aren't going to have much left in the tank today for Fresno State.
UNLV starters Jerome Seagers (54 minutes), Ike Nwamu (55) and Patrick McCaw (55) will be particularly gassed. That trio combined for 78 points yesterday against Air Force. But there's no question in my mind that all three will have off shooting nights after what they went through last night in beating the Falcons.
At the same time, Fresno State comes in well-rested having last played on March 5th. The Bulldogs (22-9) also come in playing their best basketball of the season. They have gone 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, including road wins over Wyoming, New Mexico and Utah State. The Bulldogs have won each of their last two meetings with UNLV as well.
The Rebels are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. UNLV is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Roll with Fresno State Thursday.
|
03-10-16 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss -2.5 |
Top |
81-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 20 m |
Show
|
25* SEC Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ole Miss -2.5
The Ole Miss Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They are 20-11 on the season, including 10-8 in SEC play, yet they are getting no love from Joe Lunardi and the bracket prognosticators. But I've been riding this team all season, and I'll continue to do so in the SEC Tournament as they continue playing with a chip on their shoulder.
Ole Miss closed the season by going 4-1 in its last five games overall, so it comes in playing very well. It also owns a 74-66 home victory over Alabama as 5-point favorites in their first meeting this season. The Rebels have one of the best players in the country in Stefan Moody, who averages 23.1 points per game. He will have his way with Alabama once again.
I really do not like the mindset of Alabama right now. Three weeks ago, it was safely in the NCAA Tournament. But four losses in five games later, and the Crimson Tide are well on the outside with no chance of making it. The Tide lost at home to Mississippi State and Arkansas, and their only win came against awful Auburn 65-57. They also lost by 25 at Kentucky and by 7 at Georgia.
The Crimson Tide are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall and getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. The Rebels continue flying under the radar as they are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points. They won by 23 at Tennessee in the regular season finale. Bet Ole Miss Thursday.
|
03-10-16 |
Washington v. Oregon -7 |
|
77-83 |
Loss |
-105 |
14 h 29 m |
Show
|
15* Pac-12 Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Oregon -7
The Oregon Ducks were one of the most underrated teams in college basketball this season, and they continue to be. They went 25-6 overall and 14-4 in Pac-12 play to win the conference. They also went 16-11 ATS in all games this year, and they come in on a five-game winning streak with all five victories coming by 8 points or more.
Yet the Ducks are only laying 7 points here to Washington in the Pac-12 Tournament. Oregon comes in well-rested having last played on March 5th, while Washington will be playing a second consecutive day after dismantling Stanford 91-68 yesterday.
I believe that blowout victory has the Huskies overvalued here. Remember, they had lost six of their previous eight games with their only two wins coming at home over Stanford and Washington State. So, Oregon is playing better coming in, and it is more rested and prepared for this contest.
The Ducks are also playing to earn a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, so they aren't about to let up now. They made easy work of the Huskies in their lone meeting this season, winning 86-73 as 11-point favorites.
The Ducks are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Oregon is 51-22-3 ATS in its last 76 games following an ATS win. The Huskies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oregon Thursday.
|
03-10-16 |
Utah State v. San Diego State -7 |
|
65-71 |
Loss |
-106 |
14 h 19 m |
Show
|
15* Mountain West Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on San Diego State -7
The San Diego State Aztecs are squarely on the bubble in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They are currently a No. 11 seed according to Joe Lunardi and could get bounced if they were to lose to Utah State in their opening game of the MWC Tournament. It's safe to say the Aztecs will be dialed in and focused here.
It also helps that the Aztecs come in rested having last played on March 5th. They made a statement to close out the season while finishing 16-2 in MWC play to run away with the conference title. They won 83-56 at New Mexico as 1-point favorites, and then crushed UNLV 92-56 as 10-point home favorites in their final two games of the season.
At 16-14 on the season, Utah State is simply not very good. The Aggies did blow out lowly Wyoming 88-70 in their MWC Tournament opener yesterday, but that win has them overvalued coming in. It also means that the Aggies will be playing their 2nd game in 2 days, which clearly puts them at a disadvantage against the rested and prepared Aztecs.
Simply put, San Diego State owns Utah State. It is 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six meetings with Utah State over the past three seasons. Dating back further, the Aztecs are 8-0 ATS in the last eight meetings since 1997. They have won the last five meetings by an average of 17.4 points per game. SDSU is 7-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more over the last three seasons. Take San Diego State Thursday.
|
03-10-16 |
Western Kentucky v. UAB -6.5 |
Top |
88-77 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 53 m |
Show
|
20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UAB -6.5
Remember when UAB beat Iowa State as a No. 15 vs. No. 2 seed last year in the NCAA Tournament? Well, the Blazers brought all five starters back from that team, and they promptly dominated Conference USA this season with a 26-5 record overall and a 16-2 mark in conference action.
Now the Blazers must win the Conference USA Tournament to make the big dance again, so they will certainly be focused and ready to go today. They come in rested having last played on March 5th, while their opponent in Western Kentucky just played yesterday in an 84-76 win over North Texas.
That edge in rest and preparation is a big reason why I like the Blazers today. But another reason to love the Blazers is that this will be a home game for them played in Birmingham, Alabama. UAB is 16-0 at home this season. The home team is 5-0 SU in the last five meetings between these teams as well.
UAB is 10-1 ATS after failing to cover three of their last four against the spread over the last two seasons. The Blazers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. UAB is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS loss. Take UAB Thursday.
|
03-10-16 |
Pittsburgh v. North Carolina -7.5 |
|
71-88 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 0 m |
Show
|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on North Carolina -7.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels are arguably the best team in the country. They went 25-6 this season and are playing to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. I like their chances of winning going away against Pitt in their ACC Tournament opener Thursday afternoon.
The biggest reason to love UNC is that it comes in rested having last played on March 5th in a 76-72 road win over Duke. Meanwhile, the Pitt Panthers just played a hard-fought game yesterday against Syracuse and won 72-71 to advance.
So, the Tar Heels have a massive edge in rest and preparation. Also, I don't think this is a good spot for Pitt mentally. That game against Syracuse was essentially a play-in game in terms of the NCAA Tournament as both were squarely on the bubble. Now that they know they are in the big dance, the Panthers may let up here. It's also not a good matchup for the Panthers, who lost 64-85 at UNC in their only meeting this season.
Pitt is 0-8 ATS in March games over the last two seasons. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams who outrebound opponents by 7-plus boards per game this season. These two trends combine for a perfect 15-0 system backing UNC. Also, the Panthers are 13-38-3 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win. Roll with North Carolina Thursday.
|
03-09-16 |
Arizona State v. Oregon State -2 |
|
66-75 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* ASU/Oregon State Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon State -2
The Oregon State Beavers are currently the second team on Joe Lunardi's "First Four Out" line, which means they wouldn't be in the NCAA Tournament if the season ended today. It's safe to say that they will be highly motivated to put themselves on the right side of the bubble with a win over Arizona State Wednesday.
The Beavers have done their part here down the stretch by going 6-3 in their last nine games overall with their only losses all coming on the road to Cal, Oregon and USC. They also have road wins over Stanford and UCLA, as well as home victories over Utah, Colorado, Washington and Washington State during this stretch. So, they are playing very well.
The same cannot be said for Arizona State, which was the second-worst team in the Pac-12 this season ahead of only lowly Washington State. The Sun Devils went 5-13 in conference play this season with two of those victories coming against Washington State. They are 1-5 in their last six games overall with four of those losses coming by double-digits, so they aren't playing well at all.
ASU is 2-13 ATS after covering the spread in two of their last three games over the last two seasons. Oregon State is 20-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons. The Sun Devils are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 neutral site games. The Beavers are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Take Oregon State Wednesday.
|
03-09-16 |
Florida State v. Virginia Tech +4 |
|
85-96 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +4
The Virginia Tech Hokies have a huge advantage coming into this game and should not be underdogs to Florida State. They got to watch the Seminoles beat Boston College yesterday, which is 0-18 in ACC play this season. They have the scouting advantage and the rest advantage coming in.
The Hokies finished with a winning record (10-8) in the ACC for the first time in the last five years this season. Buzz Williams clearly has this program on the rise, and the Hokies are certainly playing their best basketball of the season coming into the ACC Tournament.
Indeed, Virginia Tech is 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall. Three of those wins came by double-digits, including an 83-73 victory over this same Seminoles team as well as a 77-62 triumph over highly-ranked Miami in the regular season finale.
Florida State is 0-6 ATS when playing its 3rd game in a week this season. VA Tech is 14-4 ATS in all conference games this year. The Hokies are 9-2 ATS when playing against a team that wins 60% to 80% of its games this season. Roll with Virginia Tech Wednesday.
|
03-09-16 |
Air Force +11 v. UNLV |
Top |
102-108 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* Mountain West Tournament No-Brainer on Air Force +11
Simply put, the UNLV Rebels are not 11 points better than the Air Force Falcons on a neutral court. That will show today as the Falcons give the Rebels a run for their money, possibly winning this game outright.
I realize this is more of a home game for UNLV, but I think they have over-adjusted the line for this game being played in Las Vegas. The Rebels just can't be trusted witht he way they are playing right now. They have a 12-point loss to Boise State and a 36-point loss to San Diego State in two of their last three games.
Air Force really came on strong toward the end of the season in going 6-3 ATS in its last nine games overall. The Falcons pulled off upsets wins over Wyoming (by 8) as 4.5-point dogs, Boise State (by 8) as 11.5-point dogs, UNLV (by 5) as 8.5-point dogs and New Mexico (by 4) as 8-point dogs during this stretch.
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. UNLV is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Air Force Wednesday.
|
03-08-16 |
Boston College +13 v. Florida State |
|
66-88 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* ACC Tournament Tuesday No-Brainer on Boston College +13
The betting public wants nothing to do with the Boston College Eagles right now. That's because this team somehow managed to go 0-17 in ACC play. But with that record comes zero expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers, which is why the Eagles are catching too many points here as 13-point dogs to Florida State.
The Eagles came very close to winning a couple games down the stretch. They only lost 71-76 as 9.5-point home dogs to Georgia Tech, and then they lost 72-73 on a buzzer-beater as 15-point road dogs at NC State in two of their final three games. They don't want to go winless in the ACC, so they will be laying it all on the line here with the pride factor against Florida State.
The Seminoles have no business being 13-point favorites against anyone in the ACC. But they come in overvalued due to going 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS in their final two games. Remember, they had lost five straight prior to that stretch. The Seminoles went 8-10 in ACC play this season, but only two of those wins came by more than 11 points. They just don't blow anyone out.
This has been an extremely closely-contested series of late. In fact, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 10 points or less, and I believe this one will be, too. The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following a ATS loss. Take Boston College Tuesday.
|
03-06-16 |
Wisconsin +6 v. Purdue |
Top |
80-91 |
Loss |
-103 |
10 h 14 m |
Show
|
20* Big Ten No Brainer on Wisconsin +6
The Badgers are a different team from the one that lost by six at home to Purdue back on December 29th. Since beating Michigan State on January 17th they really turned a corner, winning 11 of 12 games. Their sole loss was to the Spartans, a team that is without a doubt the best the Big 10 has to offer.
The Boilermakers on the other hand have been over-rated by oddsmakers for too long. Now just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games, they continue to get too much respect here.
Purdue hasn’t been turning teams over and that is going to give opponents too many opportunities to score buckets. If you go back over the last four seasons, home favorites forcing 12 or less turnovers per game after four straight games forcing opponents to turn the ball over 11 times or fewer are 61-110 (64.3%) ATS.
|
03-05-16 |
California -5 v. Arizona State |
Top |
68-65 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 14 m |
Show
|
20* Pac-12 Game of the Week on Cal -5 Cal isn't getting enough respect in this game coming off their close loss at Arizona Thursday night while Arizona State is getting a little too much love after ending their four game losing streak against Stanford. The Bears are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, winning 7 straight before that loss to the Wildcats and they have covered 8 straight games. Arizona State on the other hand isn't very good, they haven't won as an underdog since December 16th, so I don't think we have to worry about the Sun Devils pulling an upset in this one. Cal has been dominating teams on the boards this year, averaging 40.1 to giving up only 33. That puts us in a nice little situation Arizona State is just 11-22 ATS against teams who outrebound their opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons. Take the Bears
|
03-05-16 |
Iowa State +11 v. Kansas |
Top |
78-85 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa State +11
The Cyclones have been struggling recently, but I think they have a great shot at an upset against the Jayhawks on Satruday. Iowa State has won 4 of the last 5 head-to-head as they seem to have their number. Kansas has already secured the top spot in the Big 12, and are over-valued in this spot after winning their last 11 games, covering 10 of those 11. In fact, the Jayhawks haven't lost since their trip to Ames where they were a one point underdog. A 12-point swing from away to home is a little too much, and I think Iowa State is showing some excellent value here catching double digits.
|
03-05-16 |
West Virginia v. Baylor -3 |
|
69-58 |
Loss |
-113 |
2 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Baylor -3
It's senior day for the Baylor Bears and I think they come out ready to play here against West Virginia. We are in must win territory as a third loss in four games would probably drop them down to a six seed come tournament time. West Virginia has played very good this season but the road has been more difficult for them. Plus, they have won the last three games despite allowing Iowa State to shoot 51%, shooting only 36.5% against Oklahoma State, and giving up 56.1% shooting against Texas Tech. I think Baylor will be able to handle the press in front of the home crowd and come away with a victory here today. Take Baylor
|
03-04-16 |
Ball State v. Northern Illinois -2.5 |
|
69-80 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 42 m |
Show
|
15* MAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Illinois -2.5
I have backed the Northern Illinois Huskies with plenty of success this season when playing at home. I'll continue to do so tonight as they are only 2.5-point favorites over the Ball State Cardinals in a game that I believe they are going to run away with.
The Huskies have two huge reasons to be motivated. First, it's their final home game of the season and Senior Night. And second, they want revenge from a tough 59-63 loss at Ball State on February 19 just two weeks ago in their first meeting. That was a rare loss in this series for NIU, which had won its previous four meetings with Ball State.
But the biggest reason to back Northern Illinois is the fact that it simply does not lose at home. It is 16-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 15.2 points per game. They have beaten several of the top teams in the MAC at home, including Akron, Ohio and Central Michigan.
The Huskies are 20-7-3 ATS in their last 30 home games. Northern Illinois is 32-15-4 ATS in its last 49 games vs. MAC opponents. The Huskies are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Northern Illinois Friday.
|
03-04-16 |
Southern Illinois v. Northern Iowa -5.5 |
|
60-66 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 40 m |
Show
|
15* MVC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Northern Iowa -5.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers are the hottest team in the Missouri Valley Conference right now. They have gone 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall, which includes road wins over the two best teams in the conference in Wichita State and Evansville. They are the team that nobody wants to play in the MVC Tournament.
But that's the poor fortune that the Southern Illinois Salukis are faced with Friday. And with the way the Salukis are playing, they don't stand much of a chance. They are 4-6 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Three of their wins came at home against three of the worst teams in the conference in Drake, Bradley and Missouri State.
This has been a pretty one-sided series with Northern Iowa winning three of the last four meetings. They won by 16 at home, by 7 on the road, and by 9 at home in their three wins. Their only loss came all the way back on January 2nd by a final of 75-73 on the road, or by a mere two points. The Panthers are a much better team today than they were on January 2nd.
Northern Iowa is 9-1 ATS vs. good shooting teams that make 45% or more of their shots after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. The Panthers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. UNI is 5-0 ATS in its last five vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Salukis are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. These four trends combine for a 27-2 system backing the Panthers. Roll with Northern Iowa Friday.
|
03-03-16 |
Georgia v. South Carolina -7 |
Top |
74-72 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -7
The South Carolina Gamecocks are actually dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament in spite of their 23-6 record this season. That's because they played a weak non-conference schedule, but I've seen enough from this team to know that they belong in the big dance. But they cannot afford a home loss to Georgia tonight, so look for them to put their best foot forward here.
So the Gamecocks not only have NCAA Tournament motivation, they also will be motivated on for Senior Night and their final home game. This veteran team has been through a lot with Frank Martin, and they certainly want to take care of business in their final game in Columbia. That shouldn't be a problem considering they have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.
Indeed, South Carolina is 15-1 at home this season with its only loss to Kentucky. A whopping 13 of those 15 wins have come by 9 points or more as well, which is why I'm not afraid to lay the 7 points here. The Gamecocks also want revenge for a poor 56-69 loss at Georgia in their first meeting. The last time these teams squared off in Columbia, the Gamecocks rolled to a 67-50 victory.
Conversely, Georgia is just 2-8 in true road games this season. Its only two road wins this season have come against Missouri and Mississippi State, which are two of the worst teams in the SEC. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.
South Carolina is 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent as a favorite over the last two seasons. The Gamecocks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games. South Carolina is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Gamecocks will simply be the more motivated team here playing to make the NCAA Tournament, on Senior Night, and with revenge in mind. Bet South Carolina Thursday.
|
03-02-16 |
Creighton v. Providence -3 |
Top |
66-70 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 1 m |
Show
|
20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Providence -3
The Providence Friars are extremely undervalued right now. That's because they lost five of six games while putting themselves dangerously close to the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. But they rebounded with a 21-point win over DePaul last time out, and now I really love them as only 3-point home favorites over Creighton as this is clearly a shorter price than it should be.
It's Senior Night for the Friars, which will add to their motivation. And at just 8-8 in Big East play, they really cannot afford another loss here. Creighton pretty much played itself out of the NCAA Tournament discussion with back-to-back losses to Butler and Marquette prior to beating lowly St. John's last time out.
Providence clearly has Creighton's number, going 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with three of those victories coming away from home. In their lone home meeting with the Bluejays during this 4-game winning streak, the Friars won 65-53 as 6-point favorites. They are 12-4 at home this season, while the Bluejays are just 4-6 in true road games.
Providence is 13-2 ATS off two straight games committing 11 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Friars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Providence Wednesday.
|
03-02-16 |
Seton Hall v. Butler -4.5 |
|
78-85 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 26 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Butler -4.5
The Butler Bulldogs are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. In fact, Joe Lunardi has the Bulldogs listed as the second-to-last team on the "Last Four In" line. It's safe to say that they cannot afford a home loss to Seton Hall tonight if they want to remain on the right side of the bubble.
The Bulldogs have played their way into the tournament by winning five of their last seven games overall with their only two losses coming to the top two teams in the Big East in Villanova and Xavier. That includes an 81-75 road win at Seton Hall, and this has been a very one-sided series to say the least. Indeed, the Bulldogs are 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings with the Pirates.
Seton Hall has played its way into the NCAA Tournament and now can afford to lose this game. The Pirates have won four straight coming in, including a huge victory over then-No. 5 Xavier in their final home game of the season last time out on Sunday. They are in a massive letdown spot off that big win. They are also playing on just two days' rest, while Butler has had three days in between games to get ready.
The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season. Butler is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games overall. Plays against road teams as an underdog or pick (SETON HALL) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite against opponent off an road win scoring 85 or more points are 88-45 (66.2%) ATS since 1997. Take Butler Wednesday.
|
03-02-16 |
Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -3.5 |
|
78-86 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 55 m |
Show
|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -3.5
The Ole Miss Rebels still have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament. At 18-11 overall and 8-8 in SEC play, if they win their final two games of the regular season, they''ll be back in the discussion. So they certainly won't be lacking any motivation tonight, not to mention the fact that it's their big rival in Mississippi State coming to Oxford.
The Rebels want revenge from a 77-83 road loss at Mississippi State in their first meeting this season. They should have no problem getting it in a big way considering the Rebels are 11-2 at home this season. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings. Ole Miss is 4-0 in its last four home meetings with Mississippi State, winning by 6, 19, 18 and 7 points.
The Bulldogs are more overvalued right now than they have been at any other point this season. That's because they have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, and they are coming off an upset win over South Carolina last time out. But consider that Mississippi State is just 2-8 in true road games this season, and it's clear to see that they should be catching more than 3.5 points tonight.
The Rebels are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up loss. The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Ole Miss is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 Wednesday home games. The Rebels are 32-16 ATS in their last 48 games off a loss by 10 points or more. Roll with Ole Miss Wednesday.
|
03-01-16 |
Georgia Tech +13 v. Louisville |
|
53-56 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 0 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia Tech +13
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are making a late push to try and make the NCAA Tournament. They have won five of their last six games overall coming into this one, and a road victory at Louisville would certainly help matters. They are simply catching too many points here in a game that I believe will come down to the wire.
Since joining the ACC, Louisville has won both meetings with Georgia Tech by a combined 5 points. That includes a 75-71 road win on January 23 in their first meeting this season. But now the Yellow Jackets will be out for revenge, and they certainly have a lot more to play for considering the postseason ban for Louisville.
Senior guard Marcus Georges-Hunt has averaged 23.5 points on 63.6 percent shooting during the Yellow Jackets' four-game winning streak. "He's going to have to play at the high level he's been playing at," coach Brian Gregory said of Georges-Hunt. "At the same time we need Adam (Smith) to play well, and we need our bigs to play well. Both times we've played Louisville, it's come down to a possession game, and they have playmakers."
Georgia Tech is 8-1 ATS versus teams who outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this season. Louisville is 1-8 ATS vs. teams who win 51% to 60% of their games over the last two seasons. The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS off one or more consecutive overs this season. The Yellow Jackets are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Roll with Georgia Tech Tuesday.
|
02-29-16 |
Kansas v. Texas +3 |
Top |
86-56 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
20* Kansas/Texas ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Texas +3
The Texas Longhorns have been dominant at home all season. They are 14-2 at home this year, and now we are getting them as home underdogs to the Kansas Jayhawks tonight. We'll take the points in a game I fully expect them to win outright.
Texas is 4-1 at home against ranked teams this season with wins over West Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma and Iowa State. After beating No. 3 Oklahoma handily 76-63 on Saturday, they are looking to become the first team since Kansas (2008) to beat a pair of top-three opponents in back-to-back games.
Adding to the motivation for the Longhorns is the fact that this is Senior Night and will be their final home game. Also adding to their hunger is the fact that they blew a 35-30 halftime lead at Kansas to lose 76-67 in their first meeting. But now they get the Jayhawks at home and will be seeking revenge.
I simply do not expect Kansas to show up. The Jayhawks clinched at least a share of their ridiculous 12th straight Big 12 regular season title with their 67-58 home win over Texas Tech on Saturday. After accomplishing that goal, the Jayhawks will fall flat tonight as they play with a sense of relief. Sure, they could wrap up the outright title with a win, but they can also do that at home against Iowa State in their next game. This is far from a must-win for the Jayhawks.
Texas is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team that wins more than 80% of their games after 15 or more games this season. The Longhorns are 8-0 ATS vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Texas is 7-0 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season. These three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Longhorns. Bet Texas Monday.
|
02-28-16 |
Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest -2 |
Top |
81-74 |
Loss |
-106 |
18 h 55 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Wake Forest -2
It's Senior Day for Wake Forest, so it's safe to say that the Demon Deacons are going to show up in their final home game against Virginia Tech Sunday. I look for a big effort from them for a number of reasons, not the least of which is Senior Day.
Leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker Devin Thomas (15.8 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 1.6 bpg) will be making his return from a 2-game suspension. The Demon Deacons were playing well before he got suspended, and then they actually played respectable without him for two games, which will help them going forward.
They only lost by 5 at Georgia Tech, by 11 at NC State and by 5 (OT) at Pitt in three straight games before the Thomas suspension. They them blew out Boston College 74-48 in their first game without him at home before losing to ranked Notre Dame by 11 at home.
Another reason I expect a big effort from the Demon Deacons is the fact that they'll want revenge from a tough 91-93 road loss at Virginia Tech in their first meeting on January 13. The Hokies are riding high off rare back-to-back wins over Florida State and Boston College, and they are ripe for the picking here. They clearly won't want this game as much as the Demon Deacons.
VA Tech is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 road games with a line of +3 to -3. The Hokies are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The Demon Deacons are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 Sunday games. The emon Deacons are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a double-digit loss at home. Bet Wake Forest Sunday.
|
02-28-16 |
Illinois-Chicago +17.5 v. Wisc-Milwaukee |
|
85-98 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 23 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Illinois-Chicago +17.5
The betting public wants nothing to do with a team that is just 5-23 on the season like Illinois-Chicago. That alone has provided some nice line value as the oddsmakers know this fact, but there are several reasons to like the Flames against the 18-12 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers today.
The biggest reason is that this is a huge letdown/hangover spot for the Panthers. They are coming off a devastating 76-80 (OT) home loss to Horizon League champ Valparaiso. They really put a lot into that game, and there's no way they are going to be able to come back and match the intensity they played with against Valpo.
That's especially the case considering Milwaukee already beat Illinois-Chicago 87-62 at home in an absolute laugher. But that's going to place the Flames in revenge mode here. And boy have they been a money-printing machine in these spots. Indeed, Illinois-Chicago is 7-1 ATS revenging a same season loss vs. opponent this season. It is only getting outscored by 6.0 points per game in this spot.
Home-court advantage has meant nothing in this series. In fact, the road team is a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Illinois-Chicago only lost by 6 as 7.5-point dogs and actually won outright by 22 as 8-point dogs in its last two visits to Milwaukee. The Panthers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Flames are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. Take Illinois-Chicago Sunday.
|
02-28-16 |
Xavier v. Seton Hall +2 |
|
81-90 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* Xavier/Seton Hall Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +2
The Seton Hall Pirates are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They have clearly built up a tremendous resume to make the NCAA Tournament with their 20-7 record this season, which includes a 12-3 mark in home games. They will add another big win Sunday against Xavier at home.
This is an awful spot for Xavier. The Musketeers are coming off their biggest win of the season, defeating No. 1 Villanova 90-83 at home on Wednesday. There is no way they are going to be able to show up after such a big win like that, and I fully expect them to suffer a letdown here.
That has happened quite a bit recently at Seton Hall. The home team is a perfect 4-0 SU in the last four meetings. Seton Hall won 90-82 as 2-point home dogs to Xavier last season and 71-62 as a pick 'em two seasons ago. The Pirates will clearly be out for revenge from a 76-84 road loss to Xavier on January 23 in their first meeting this season, too, so they'll be the more motivated, focused team in this one.
The Pirates have really been undervalued all season, especially here of late. They are 7-1 SU in thier last eight games overall, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests. They lost by just 1 point at home to Villanova earlier this season to show what they are capable of at home.
Seton Hall is 9-1 ATS as an underdog this season. The Pirates are 10-1 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons. Seton Hall is 9-2 ATS when revenging a loss vs. opponent this season. The Pirates are 7-0 ATS after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game over the last two seasons. The Pirates are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These five trends combine for a 41-4 system backing the Pirates. Roll with Seton Hall Sunday.
|
02-27-16 |
Louisville v. Miami (Fla) -3.5 |
|
65-73 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
15* Louisville/Miami ACC ANNIHILATOR on Miami -3.5
At 11-4 in ACC play, the Miami Hurricanes are just one game back of the North Carolina Tar Heels for 1st place in the conference. Look for them to continue pursuing at least a share of the league title with a big home win over the Louisville Cardinals today.
Miami is coming off a big home win over Virginia, and it has now won 9 of its last 11 games overall. The Hurricanes simply do not lose at home as they are 4-1 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 13.1 points per game. They are 8-0 at home in ACC play with six of those wins coming by 9 points or more.
Louisville is still playing out the string despite its NCAA Tournament ban. But this team is just 4-5 in true road games this season, and I just don't trust them to match the effort of the Hurricanes in this one, who simply want it more right now. This veteran Hurricanes bunch also wants revenge from two losses to Louisville by a combined 10 points last year.
Matchup wise, Miami has arguably the best trio of guards in the country who will be able to beat Louisville's press for easy scores all game. That guard play has led to only 11 turnovers per game for the Hurricanes as well, so they aren't going to give up the same easy baskets that Louisville is accustomed to with turnovers.
The Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games. The Hurricanes are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. Louisville is 0-7 ATS in road games after having won five or six of its last seven games this season. Miami is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less over the last two seasons. The Hurricanes are 6-0 ATS in home games after playing a home game this season. These last three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Hurricanes. Roll with Miami Saturday.
|
02-27-16 |
NC State v. Syracuse -5 |
Top |
66-75 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 26 m |
Show
|
25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -5
Off back-to-back losses, the Syracuse Orange find themselves squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament. Now they need to win today or they would likely be on the outside looking in. It's safe to say that they are going to lay it all on the line to get a victory as a result.
The Orange are 12-4 at home this season, including 5-1 in their last six conference home games. They now get to take on an NC State team that has won just three true road games all season, posting a 3-6 record in them.
NC State has very little to play for at 14-14 on the season. It is in a big hangover spot here from a 68-80 home loss to rival North Carolina, and it will have a hard time getting up to face the Orange as a result.
I also like this matchup for the Orange, who force opponents to make 3-pointers to beat them with their zone defense. Well, the Wolfpack only average 6 made 3-pointers per game on 34.1% shooting. That makes this a very bad matchup for them.
Syracuse is 9-0 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days of rest over the last 3 seasons. It last played on February 20, while NC State last played on February 24. That rest and preparation advantage will also be key to the Orange getting this much-needed win and cover. Bet Syracuse Saturday.
|
02-27-16 |
Northern Iowa v. Evansville -4 |
Top |
54-52 |
Loss |
-106 |
4 h 25 m |
Show
|
20* Missouri Valley GAME OF THE MONTH on Evansville -4
At 12-5 in Missouri Valley play this season, Evansville needs a victory today to lock up the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament as it is tied with Illinois State (12-5). That motivation, plus the fact that it's Senior Day for this veteran bunch, will have the Purple Aces coming through with a big performance today against Northern Iowa.
Evansville has one of the most underrated home-court advantages in the country. It is 13-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 15 points per game in the process. But it is undervalued right now due to going just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games overall, which is why it's only a 4-point favorite.
Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is way overvalued right now due to going 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games overall. But at 10-7 in league play, the Panthers can't improve their standings much. They beat Evansville by 3 at home in their first meeting this season, which places the Purple Aces in revenge mode.
The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings. The home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Northern Iowa is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games overall. Take Evansville Saturday.
|
02-25-16 |
Santa Clara +17 v. St. Mary's |
|
50-75 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Santa Clara +17
The St. Mary's Gaels are in a massive letdown spot tonight at home against the Santa Clara Broncos. As a result, the Gaels should not be laying 17 points to the Broncos in this one, and we'll take advantage and back the heavy underdogs here.
St. Mary's is coming off the season sweep of Gonzaga for the first time in forever. The Gaels beat the Bulldogs 63-58 on the road last time out, and now it's only human nature for them to not bring the same intensity into this game that they did that night against Gonzaga.
Santa Clara has only lost one of its last 11 games by more than 17 points, so it has been very competitive, going 5-6 SU & 6-5 ATS in its last 11 games overall. It is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 visits to St. Mary's as well. The Broncos are 9-4 ATS in all road games this season.
St. Mary's has been overvalued for quite some time now, going just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games overall. The Gaels haven't won any of their last 11 games by more than 17 points, making for an 11-0 system backing the Broncos. Santa Clara is 6-0 ATS revenging a home loss vs. opponent this season. The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. These last three trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Broncos. Take Santa Clara Thursday.
|
02-25-16 |
Nebraska v. Penn State -1 |
Top |
55-56 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Penn State -1
The Penn State Nittany Lions are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They have won three of their last four games overall, including upset home wins over Indiana as 9-point dogs and Iowa as 9-point dogs. Those are two of the best teams in the Big Ten.
The one loss during this stretch was a 54-70 defeat at Nebraska on February 13th. Now, less than two weeks later, the Nittany Lions are going to want some revenge on the Cornhuskers. I expect them to get it at home this time around.
Penn State is 9-3 at home this season. Nebraska is 3-6 in true road games this year. The home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in the last five meetings, including wins by 13 and 4 points for the Nittany Lions in the last two meetings at Penn State.
The Cornhuskers are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Nebraska is 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 road games overall. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Bet Penn State Thursday.
|
02-24-16 |
Air Force +11 v. Fresno State |
Top |
63-64 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 27 m |
Show
|
20* Mountain West GAME OF THE MONTH on Air Force +11
The Air Force Falcons are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. Yet, they continue to get overlooked by oddsmakers and the betting public as massive 11-point road underdogs to the Fresno State Bulldogs.
The Falcons are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. They have upset wins as underdogs over Wyoming, Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico. They also covered as 18-point road underdogs in a 9-point loss at San Diego State, which is the best team in the Mountain West.
Fresno State has a good record at 18-9, but it has been very fortunate in close games. In fact, the Bulldogs haven't beaten anyone by more than 11 points in any of their last 11 games. That includes a 1-point win as 6-point road favorites at Air Force in their first meeting, which places the Falcons in revenge mode here.
This has been a very closely-contested series as each of the last three meetings have been decided by a combined 5 points with the Bulldogs winning them all, only fueling the fire of the Falcons even more. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Combine these two trends with the fact that Fresno State hasn't won by more than 11 in 11 straight games, and we have a 21-0 system backing the Falcons. Bet Air Force Wednesday.
|
02-24-16 |
Tennessee v. South Carolina -7.5 |
|
58-84 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 13 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on South Carolina -7.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks should be bigger favorites at home tonight against the Tennessee Volunteers. This has been a common theme all season as the Gamecocks have consistently been undervalued at home time and time again.
Indeed, South Carolina is 14-1 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game. Its only home loss all season came to Kentucky, which is the best team in the SEC.
Tennessee has been great at home but awful on the road. The Vols are 1-12 in all road games this season with a 1-9 record in true road games an an 0-3 mark in neutral site contests. They have lost by double-digits in four straight road games with a 10-point loss at Kentucky, an 11-point loss at Missouri, an 18-point loss at Arkansas, and a 12-point loss at TCU.
Making matters more difficult on the Volunteers is the fact that leading scorer Kevin Punter is doubtful with a stress fracture in his foot. Punter leads the team at 22.2 points per game and would be a huge loss considering how much they rely on him. Even if he plays, I still expect the Gamecocks to get the job done.
Tennessee is 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Volunteers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up win. The Gamecocks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games. Roll with South Carolina Wednesday.
|
02-24-16 |
Villanova v. Xavier +1.5 |
|
83-90 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 22 m |
Show
|
15* Villanova/Xavier Big East ANNIHILATOR on Xavier +1.5
The Xavier Musketeers mean business tonight. They're out to prove that they can beat the elite, and they'll do just that by upsetting No. 1 Villanova at home. Look for their biggest effort of the season here folks.
Xavier was embarrassed 64-95 at Villanova in their first meeting this season, when Edmond Sumner fell hard in the early minutes and had to be taken to the hospital. The Musketeers never recovered. The Musketeers also blew a 40-33 halftime lead over Villanova last year at home, which doesn't sit well with them.
''Losing Edmond did a lot for us,'' Farr said. ''But you know, we pride ourselves on being a deep team. We got challenged and we didn't answer the challenge at Villanova. It's going to be a different story tomorrow. Tomorrow is a players game - who wants it more? So we'll be ready.''
Xavier is 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points per game. Xavier is 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less, or as an underdog, over the last three seasons. The Musketeers are 8-0 ATS off three straight wins by 10 points or more this season. These three trends combine for a 30-1 system backing the Musketeers. Take Xavier Wednesday.
|
02-23-16 |
Michigan State v. Ohio State +6 |
|
81-62 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
15* Michigan State/Ohio State ESPN No-Brainer on Ohio State +6
The Ohio State Buckeyes have played themselves back into contention for the NCAA Tournament by playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch. A win over Michigan State tonight would be just what the doctor ordered and probably push them into the field of 68.
The Buckeyes currently sit at 18-10 on the season and 10-5 within the conference. They have won four straight games coming in. The Buckeyes are 13-4 at home this season, including 6-1 at home in Big Ten play with their only loss coming to Maryland by 5 points. Three of their four home losses this season have come by 6 points or less.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series. The home team is a perfect 5-0 SU in the last five meetings. Plus, these games always seem to come down to the wire as the Spartans and Buckeyes have played nine straight games decided by 9 points or less, including seven by 4 points or fewer.
Ohio State is 7-1 ATS in home games with a total set of 135 to 139.5 points this season. The Buckeyes are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 Tuesday games. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games overall. Take Ohio State Tuesday.
|
02-23-16 |
Rhode Island v. Davidson -3.5 |
Top |
54-65 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 48 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Davidson -3.5
The Davidson Wildcats still have an outside shot of making the NCAA Tournament, but they need a big finish to do so. A win over Rhode Island tonight would certainly help, and I look for them to get it at home, where they have been dominant all season.
Indeed, Davidson is 13-1 at home this season. It is coming off a win over arguably the best team in the the conference in Saint Joseph's to boost its resume. It has won four of its last five games overall with its only loss coming by a single point on the road.
Rhode Island has lost four of its last seven games coming in. Like Davidson, the Rams are tremendous at home, but awful on the road. Indeed, Rhode Island is just 2-7 in true road games this season. It is getting too much respect from oddsmakers as only 3.5-point road dogs here.
Rhode Island is 2-9 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons. The Rams are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Rhode Island is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 road games overall. The Rams are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games following a straight up win. The Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 Tuesday games. Bet Davidson Tuesday.
|
02-22-16 |
Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -1 |
|
61-64 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
15* Virginia/Miami ESPN No-Brainer on Miami -1
The Miami Hurricanes come into this game undervalued as only 1-point home favorites over the Virginia Cavaliers. Their 71-96 loss at North Carolina over the weekend has a lot to do with it, but keep in mind that they had won eight of their previous nine games prior.
Virginia comes in overvalued due to having won eight of its last nine games overall with its only loss coming on a buzzer-beater at Duke. While this team is playing very well, it should be catching more than just one point on the road at Miami today.
After all, the Hurricanes are 13-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game. All five of Virginia's losses this season have come on the road. Miami wants revenge from a 58-66 road loss at Virginia int heir first meeting this season as well.
Miami is 19-9-1 ATS in its last 29 games overall. The Hurricanes are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Miami is 6-0 ATS in its last six games after allowing more than 90 points in its previous game. Take Miami Monday.
|
02-22-16 |
Texas +1.5 v. Kansas State |
Top |
71-70 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 56 m |
Show
|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas +1.5
The Texas Longhorns come in undervalued due to losing three of their last four games overall. Two were understandable as they came on the road at Iowa State and Oklahoma, but a bad loss at home to Baylor last time out by 14 points is what has them undervalued.
Shaka Smart's team has been very resilient. After a mediocre start to the season, they proceeded to win seven out of eight games in the middle of their Big 12 schedule. Now, after losing three of four, I look for that resiliency to come through here today with a big road win over Kansas State.
Kansas State is just 15-12 on the season and 4-10 in conference games. While the Wildcats have been good at home, I expect them to suffer a hangover from their 63-72 home loss to rival Kansas over the weekend. They won't possibly be as motivated for this game as they were against the Jayhawks.
Texas is 7-0 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons. The Longhorns are 6-0 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days over the last two seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Longhorns. Bet Texas Monday.
|
02-21-16 |
Utah v. USC -1.5 |
Top |
80-69 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 40 m |
Show
|
20* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on USC -1.5
This one is about as easy as it gets today folks. It's as simple as the fact that the USC Trojans are 15-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 17 points per game. They are also 11-3-1 ATS at home this season. They essentially just have to win the game to cover this 1.5-point spread, too.
The Utah Utes are way overvalued right now due to winning three straight, including a 2-point win at UCLA last time out. But they're not about to escape USC with a victory. After all, the Trojans have beaten Arizona among others at home this season.
The Trojans are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 home games. The Trojans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. USC is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Utes are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet USC Sunday.
|
02-20-16 |
St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -6.5 |
|
63-58 |
Loss |
-100 |
12 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* St. Mary's/Gonzaga ESPN 2 Late-Night BAILOUT on Gonzaga -6.5
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble right now and really need this win over St. Mary's to get in the field with an at-large berth. I look for them to take care of business in a big way at home tonight.
For starters, Gonzaga is going to be out for revenge after blowing a big late lead and losing 67-70 at St. Mary's in their first meeting this season on January 21st. The Bulldogs are 11-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 20.4 points per game, so revenge shouldn't be a problem.
St. Mary's is not playing well at all coming into this game. The Gaels are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games overall, having lost by 11 at BYU and by 6 at home to Pepperdine recently. Their last two wins have come over lowly Loyola-Marymount and Portland by a combined 8 points despite being a combined 27-point favorite in those two contests.
Gonzaga is 18-1 SU in its last 19 home meetings with St. Mary's, and 7-1 SU & 8-0 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Gaels overall. The one-sided nature of this series should continue as the Bulldogs have their revenge in a big way at home tonight. Take Gonzaga Saturday.
|
02-20-16 |
Connecticut v. Cincinnati -2.5 |
Top |
60-65 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 2 m |
Show
|
20* American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Cincinnati -2.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats and UConn Huskies are both squarely on the bubble right now. But I'll side with the home team in this one as the Bearcats should take care of business at this generous price of -2.5 today.
Cincinnati comes in hungry and undervalued off a 68-70 loss at Tulsa, while UConn is in a big letdown spot off its huge 68-62 home win over SMU that also has it overvalued. This line should be Cincinnati -6 or higher.
After all, the Bearcats already won 58-57 at UConn in their first meeting this season. Cincinnati rarely loses at home as it is 12-3 and outscoring opponents by 18.6 points per game at home.
UConn is 24-44 ATS in its last 68 road games off two consecutive home games. UConn is 5-16 ATS after playing four consecutive games as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take Cincinnati Saturday.
|
02-20-16 |
Mississippi State v. Alabama -5.5 |
|
67-61 |
Loss |
-108 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Alabama -5.5
The Alabama Crimson Tide are one of the most underrated teams in the country. They keep winning, yet they continue lacking respect from oddsmakers here as only 5.5-point home favorites over the Mississippi State Bulldogs Saturday.
Alabama has won five straight games to get to 16-9 and likely into the NCAA Tournament if the season were to end today. It has home wins over Tennessee, Missouri and Texas A&M, as well as road wins as underdogs at Mississippi State, Florida and LSU over its last seven games with its only loss coming at South Carolina.
But the Crimson Tide can't afford a letdown today against Mississippi State if they want to remain in the NCAA Tournament field. That shouldn't be a problem considering the Bulldogs are 1-7 in true road games this season, while the Crimson Tide are 9-2 in home games.
The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win. Mississippi State is 1-5 ATS in its last six trips to Alabama. The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Mississippi State is 2-9 ATS revenging a home loss over the last two seasons. Alabama is 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons. The Crimson Tide are 9-1 ATS versus good shooting teams who make 45% or more of their shots this season. Bet Alabama Saturday.
|
02-20-16 |
New Mexico v. Air Force +8 |
|
72-76 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Air Force +8
Given how well Air Force has played at home all season, especially here of late, there's no way it should be catching 8 points to New Mexico today. We'll gladly take advantage of this excellent line value.
Air Force is 11-4 at home this season. It has pulled off three straight upset victories at home, beating Wyoming by 8 as 4.5-point dogs, Boise State by 8 as 11.5-point dogs, and UNLV by 5 as 8.5-point dogs. Plus, two of its four home losses this season came by a combined 5 points.
New Mexico is a tremendous home team, but it leaves a lot to be desired with a 4-8 record in all games played away from home this year. The home team is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series, so home-court advantage has clearly been huge as well.
The Lobos are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games. New Mexico is 2-11 ATS in February games over the last two seasons. The Falcons will also be out for revenge from a loss at New Mexico on January 27th in their first meeting this season. Roll with Air Force Saturday.
|
02-20-16 |
Florida v. South Carolina -2.5 |
Top |
69-73 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 3 m |
Show
|
20* Florida/South Carolina SEC Early ANNIHILATOR on South Carolina -2.5
The South Carolina Gamecocks are highly motivated for a victory off back-to-back losses to Kentucky and Missouri. Look for them to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder this afternoon against the Florida Gators.
After all, that loss to Kentucky was the first home loss for the Gamecocks all season. They are still 13-1 SU & 8-3 ATS at home this season with 11 of those victories coming by double-digits, including recent wins over LSU (94-83), Alabama (78-64) and Mississippi State (84-74).
Florida is just 3-6 in true road games this season. But it comes in overvalued off a road win at Georgia last time out by a final of 57-53. The Gators have won seven straight meetings with the Gamecocks, but this is a completely different South Carolina team in 2015-16. The Gamecocks are 21-5 on the season as this is the best team that Frank Martin has had yet.
Florida is 1-8 ATS in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last two seasons. The Gators are 0-9 ATS off a combined score of 115 points or less over the last two years. South Carolina is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Gators are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 games following a straight up win. The Gamecocks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Gamecocks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Bet South Carolina Saturday.
|
02-18-16 |
California v. Washington +2 |
|
78-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 44 m |
Show
|
15* Cal/Washington Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington +2
The Washington Huskies are on the outside looking in in terms of the NCAA Tournament. They have to finish strong if they want any chance, and it starts with an upset home victory over the California Bears tonight.
Washington is coming off a brutal 3-game stretch in which they lost to Arizona (by 5) at home, Utah (by 8) on the road and Colorado (by 1) on the road. But now they return home where they are 10-4 on the season, including 4-2 in Pac-12 play with their only losses coming to Arizona (by 5) and Utah (by 5).
California comes in way overvalued due to three straight victories over Stanford, Oregon and Oregon State, all of which came at home. But the Golden Bears have been awful on the road this season. They are 1-8 in all road games, including 0-6 in their last six true road games. The last four have all come by 6 points or more.
The Golden Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss. Cal is 0-6 ATS off three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or fewer turnovers this season. The Golden Bears are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons. These four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Huskies. Take Washington Thursday.
|
02-18-16 |
Utah v. UCLA +1 |
Top |
75-73 |
Loss |
-106 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on UCLA +1
The UCLA Bruins need to start piling up wins if they want to go back to the NCAA Tournament, where they made a deep run all the way to the Elite 8 last year. They have an excellent chance of doing just that with four of their final six games at home.
The Bruins took care of Arizona State 78-65 on the road as 2-point dogs last time out. Now they get to host the Utah Utes. The Bruins are 9-3 at home this season with wins over the likes of Kentucky and Arizona. They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in three home meetings with Utah as Pac-12 foes, including a 69-59 victory as 5.5-point dogs last year.
Utah has no business getting this much respect from oddsmakers here. While the Utes are a tremendous home team, they have left a lot to be desired on the road. Indeed, the Utes are just 3-4 in true road games this season with their only wins coming over Colorado (by 2), Washington State and Washington (by 5). They have lost to Stanford, Cal, Oregon and Oregon State on the road.
Utah is 1-8 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 8 days this season. UCLA is 10-2 ATS in home games after having lost two of its last three coming in over the last two seasons. The Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games following three or more consecutive road games. The home team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet UCLA Thursday.
|
02-17-16 |
Duke v. North Carolina -6.5 |
|
74-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
15* Duke/UNC ESPN Wednesday ANNIHILATOR on North Carolina -6.5
The North Carolina Tar Heels come into this game with the Duke Blue Devils as the more motivated team. They have lost three straight in this rivalry, so they badly want to taste sweet, sweet victory. They finally have the better team than Duke this year, and I look for them to roll to victory at home tonight.
After all, Duke won the National Championship last season so it's easy to see why it went 2-0 against North Carolina, though the two wins came by a combined 9 points. But this Duke team is one of the worst we've seen in quite some time. In fact, the Blue Devils were knocked out of the Top 25 for the first time since 2006 a few weeks ago.
That came on the heels of losing four out of five games. But the Blue Devils are now back to being overvalued due to winning four straight coming in. But those wins have been far from convincing as all four came by 9 points or less, and three were at home. They needed a buzzer-beater to top Virginia at home on Saturday.
Now the Blue Devils will be tasked with facing one of the best UNC teams in recent memory. The Tar Heels are 21-4 this season and 10-2 in ACC play. They have absolutely suffocated opponents at home, going 13-0 in Chapel Hill while outscoring opponents by 20.3 points per game in the process. They have won all 13 of their home games by 8 points or more this season, making for a 13-0 system backing them. That includes a 21-point victory over Pitt in their last outing.
From a strict basketball standpoint, I believe the reason the Tar Heels are going to run away with this game will be their advantage on the glass. North Carolina ranks 2nd in the ACC in rebounding margin at plus-7.4 boards per game. Rebounding has been a weakness for Duke ever since losing Amile Jefferson to injury. The Blue Devils are only have a plus-2.9 margin on the season, and they are -0.6 in conference play. Bet North Carolina Wednesday.
|
02-17-16 |
Syracuse +8 v. Louisville |
|
58-72 |
Loss |
-102 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
15* Syracuse/Louisville ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Syracuse +8
I'm in strict fade Louisville mode right now, and it's working. The Cardinals are lost mentally right now because of the recent sanctions that were handed down to them. They cannot play in the postseason this year, and I believe that has affected the players' approach to the game.
The Cardinals are coming off back-to-back losses to Duke and Notre Dame. I don't believe they'll be able to get back on track tonight against one of the hottest teams in the ACC in Syracuse. Even if they do get back in the win column, I find it hard to believe it will come by 8-plus points, which is what it will take to cover this spread.
Syracuse has gone 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall with its only loss coming at Virginia by 8 points. It has gone 3-1 on the road during this stretch with a 28-point win at Wake Forest, a 2-point win at Duke and a 14-point win at Boston College. It is also 5-0 at home, highlighted by a 13-point win over Florida State and a 15-point win over Notre Dame.
Syracuse beat Louisville 69-59 at home last season as 2.5-point underdogs. It has actually won its last two trips to Louisville as well, winning outright as 7-point dogs and 3-point dogs. The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. The Orange are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games off four or more consecutive wins. The Cardinals are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Roll with Syracuse Wednesday.
|
02-17-16 |
Providence +9 v. Xavier |
Top |
74-85 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
25* Big East GAME OF THE YEAR on Providence +9
The Providence Friars represent my favorite play in the Big East for the entire 2015-16 season tonight when they hit the road to take on the Xavier Musketeers. The Friars catching 9 points is simply too much tonight in a game that they could easily win outright.
Providence comes in undervalued due to being 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall. That is evidenced by this 8-point spread tonight. This will be just the 4th time all season that the Friars have been at least 7.5-point underdogs. They won outright at Villanova as 12-point dogs and outright at Butler as 7.5-point dogs in two of the three previous instances.
One thing I love about this spot for the Friars is that they will be in revenge mode from a 68-75 home loss to Xavier on January 26. But that loss was predictable because they were in a massive letdown spot off their upset win at Villanova two days earlier. But after losing three of their last four coming in, the Friars are focused and will be chomping at the bit to get revenge behind Kris Dunn and company.
Xavier has been far from impressive at home here of late. The Musketeers are actually 0-4 ATS in their last four home games. They lost 72-81 as 9.5-point favorites to Georgetown, beat Seton Hall by 8 as 9-point favorites, beat St. John's by only 7 as 21.5-point favorites, and beat Marquette by 8 as 12.5-point favorites. Providence will be the best team that they have played at home in quite some time.
Another thing to love about Providence is that this have been a very closely-contested series of late. Indeed, all five meetings between these teams have been decided by 9 points or less over the last three seasons. The Friars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games, and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Providence is 11-1 ATS in road games off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, actually winning in these spots by 10.2 points per game. Xavier is 0-8 ATS vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games over the last two seasons. Bet Providence Wednesday.
|
02-17-16 |
Dayton v. St. Joe's -1.5 |
Top |
70-79 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Joe's -1.5
First place is on the line when the Dayton Flyers visit the St. Joe's Hawks tonight in Atlantic 10 action. The Flyers are in 1st place currently at 11-1 within the conference, while the Hawks are just behind them at 10-2. I'll gladly side with the home team in this one as the Hawks continue to be undervalued as only 1.5-point favorites here.
St. Joe's has gone 21-4 SU & 17-7 ATS in all games this season. The oddsmakers and betting public simply have not caught up to this team as they have been a covering machine. They have won and covered three straight in blowout fashion coming in with a 22-point win at Fordham as 7.5-point favorites, an 18-point win at George Washington as 4.5-point dogs, and a 26-point home win over LaSalle as 17.5-point favorites.
Dayton comes in overvalued due to its No. 15 national ranking and nine straight victories. But the Flyers have been extremely fortunate of late. In their last two games, they only won by 2 at home over Duquesne as 14.5-point favorites, and by 2 at Rhode Island as 2.5-point favorites. Their luck runs out tonight against a St. Joe's outfit that is the best in the Atlantic 10 in my opinion.
Plus, St. Joe's is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Dayton. How important is home-court advantage in this series you ask? Well, how about the fact that the home team is 14-1 SU in the last 15 meetings. St. Joe's has won 7 straight home meetings with Dayton dating back to 2001. Take St. Joe's Wednesday.
|
02-16-16 |
Richmond v. Davidson -2 |
|
79-83 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on Davidson -2
The Davidson Wildcats are showing excellent value as only 2-point home favorites over the Richmond Spiders tonight. The Wildcats already beat the Spiders 78-70 on the road as 6.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season, and they should be bigger favorites at home in the rematch. I like the fact that Davidson is coming off a tough 1-point loss at George Mason, which will have it refocused when it returns home tonight. After all, the Wildcats do not lose at home as they are 11-1 on the season in their own building with their only loss coming to VCU.
Richmond comes in overvalued due to winning three straight games, but those three came against three of the worst teams in the A-10 in UMass, Saint Louis and Fordham. They also lost at home to George Mason by 4 in the game prior to this winning streak.
Davidson is 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Richmond, including 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS at home with wins by 14 and 13 points. The Spiders are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Tuesday games. The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games off a close loss by 3 points or less. Richmond is 0-6 ATS vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game over the last two seasons. Take Davidson Tuesday.
|
02-16-16 |
Michigan v. Ohio State |
|
66-76 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State PK
The Ohio State Buckeyes get the call tonight as a pick 'em at home against the Michigan Wolverines. I believe this is a very generous price for the Buckeyes, who really need a win like this and a few more if they want any chance of making the NCAA Tournament.
With an 8-5 record in Big Ten play, the Buckeyes have clearly gotten better as the season has gone on. They have gone 5-1 at home within the conference with their only loss coming to Maryland by 5 points. Michigan has only played seven true road games all season, going 4-3 with double-digit losses at SMU (by 24), Iowa (by 11) and Purdue (by 17). Its only road wins have come at NC State, Illinois, Nebraska and Minnesota.
Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings. In fact, Ohio State is a perfect 11-0 SU in its last 11 home meetings with Michigan since 2005, including a 71-52 win last year in their most recent meeting. Roll with Ohio State Tuesday.
|
02-16-16 |
West Virginia v. Texas -2.5 |
Top |
78-85 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas -2.5
The Texas Longhorns will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they return home to face the West Virginia Mountaineers. They have lost back-to-back tough games on the road to both Oklahoma and Iowa State, which are two of the best teams in the Big 12.
But the Longhorns continue to be undervalued here as only 2.5-point home favorites. They have gone 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and are better than the oddsmakers and the betting public realize. They prove it again tonight with an inspired effort on their home floor.
Texas has protected its home court very well, going 12-1 on the season with wins over the likes of North Carolina, Iowa State and Vanderbilt. West Virginia has lost two of its last three road games with a 17-point loss at Florida and a 10-point loss at Kansas.
The Longhorns have had the Mountaineers' number, going 5-1 SU in their last five meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings, including a 56-49 road win as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season. West Virginia is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 road games revenging a loss as a favorite. Texas is 9-1 ATS against teams who win more than 80% of their games on the season after 15 or more games over the last three seasons. Bet Texas Tuesday.
|
02-15-16 |
NC State +12 v. Virginia |
Top |
53-73 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 35 m |
Show
|
20* NC State/Virginia ESPN Monday No-Brainer on NC State +12
The NC State Wolfpack are a much better team than their 13-12 record would indicate this season. They are fully capable of hanging with Virginia, possibly pulling off the upset on the road tonight. That's easy to see when you look at their results in ACC play this season.
Sure, NC State is just 3-9 in ACC play, but 7-4 ATS as it has simply had bad fortune in close games. Indeed, all nine losses have come by 12 points or less, including seven by 8 points or fewer. The Wolfpack also have wins over the likes of Pitt (by 17) on the road and Miami (by 16) at home to show what they are capable of. They haven't lost any of their last 24 games this season by more than 12 points, making for a perfect 24-0 system backing them.
Virginia is in a horrible spot here. It is coming off a deflating 62-63 loss at Duke on Saturday. The Blue Devils shouldn't have won that game as Grayson Allen traveled on the final play, but he made a shot at the buzzer that the refs counted, giving Duke the victory. I expect Virginia to suffer a hangover after getting cheated out of a win as it will be hard to come back after that game at historic Cameron Indoor Stadium.
NC State is 10-1 ATS off three or more consecutive overs over the last three seasons. The Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS as a road underdog or pick over the last two seasons. NC State is 33-16-2 ATS in its last 51 vs. ACC opponents. The Cavaliers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. The Wolfpack are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Bet NC State Monday.
|
02-14-16 |
Indiana v. Michigan State -7 |
Top |
69-88 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 25 m |
Show
|
20* Indiana/Michigan State Big Ten No-Brainer on Michigan State -7
The Michigan State Spartans are playing their best basketball of the season coming into this game. They have gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. But since they are coming off an overtime loss at Purdue by 1, they will be highly motivated to get back in the win column today.
The Spartans' four wins during this stretch came by 9 at home over Maryland, by 31 at Northwestern, by 34 at home over Rutgers, and by 16 at Michigan. They have also had four days off in between games since playing Purdue, while Indiana has only had two days off. That extra rest and preparation will favor the Spartans here.
Indiana is one of the most overrated teams in the country. It had taken advantage of a very soft Big Ten schedule to this point with most of its tough games at home. It has played Rutgers, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn State on the road. It has actually lost two of its last three road games to Wisconsin and Penn State.
Michigan State is 14-1 SU & 10-5 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Indiana. The Hoosiers are just 3-8 ATS in all road games this season. The Spartans are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 home games. The Hoosiers are 9-23 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win. Michigan State is 11-1 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less over the last three seasons. Bet Michigan State Sunday.
|
02-13-16 |
Texas Tech +10.5 v. Baylor |
|
84-66 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Texas Tech +10.5
The Baylor Bears are way overvalued here as double-digit home favorites over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. I look for this game to go right down to the wire, which has been the case when these teams have gotten together in recent seasons.
Indeed, each of the last five meetings in this series have been decided by 10 points or less, including 3, 3 and 5 points in the last three meetings. That includes a 63-60 road victory for the Bears in their first meeting this season on January 16th, which puts the Red Raiders in dangerous revenge mode in the rematch here today.
Texas Tech is the definition of a team that is better than its record would indicate. The Red Raiders are a solid 14-9 this season, but it really could be much better. Seven of their nine losses have come by 10 points or less, so if they had a +10.5 spread for every game this season, they would be 21-2 ATS. This is simply too many points folks. Bet Texas Tech Saturday.
|
02-13-16 |
Wisconsin +9.5 v. Maryland |
|
70-57 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 5 m |
Show
|
15* Wisconsin/Maryland Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin +9.5
The Wisconsin Badgers come into this game against highly-ranked Maryland playing their best basketball of the season. I expect that to continue for a number of reasons, not the least of which is that they want revenge from a tough loss to the Terrapins at home in their first meeting this year.
Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall. It has beaten the likes of Michigan State, Indiana, Ohio State and Nebraska at home, while also taking care of both Penn State and Illinois on the road during this stretch. The Badgers are 7-4 in Big Ten play overall with all four losses coming by 6 points or less (6, 1, 3, 5).
The Badgers lost a 60-63 heartbreaker at home to Maryland in a game they feel they should have won. But Melo Trimble hit the game-winning 3-pointer with only 1.2 seconds left, and the Badgers have not forgotten. Maryland shot 52.1% in that game compared to 38.7% for Wisconsin, yet it only managed to win by 3.
"I think our guys are excited about this game for a lot of reasons, and it's not only because they're ranked (No. 2) in the country or because of the potential postseason ramifications," assistant coach Lamont Paris told the school's official website. "It's because they felt like they left something hanging out there in the first game. We made some mistakes and didn't finish around the rim."
Wisconsin is 6-0 ATS following a conference win this season. Maryland is 0-6 ATS in home games after a game where it made 55% of its shots or better over the last two seasons. The Terrapins are 0-6 ATS in home games after two straight wins by 10 points or more over the last two years. These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Badgers. Roll with Wisconsin Saturday.
|
02-13-16 |
Virginia v. Duke -2 |
Top |
62-63 |
Loss |
-105 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
20* Virginia/Duke ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Duke -2
Rarely will you ever get the opportunity to back the Duke Blue Devils as this short of home favorites year in and year out. I know that the Blue Devils aren't as strong as they were when they won the NCAA title last season, but I'm not about to pass up on this golden opportunity.
Duke still has one of the Top 5 best home-court advantages in the country. It has gone 12-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 20 points per game. Its two losses at home this season have come by a combined 6 points, and it is coming off back-to-back home wins over NC State and Louisville.
Virginia comes in way overvalued due to winning seven straight games overall. But don't forget, this is the same team that started 0-3 on the road in ACC play with losses to the likes of VA Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. The Cavaliers also got a miracle 72-71 win at Wake Forest in a game they should have lost as they trailed big late before hitting a banked-in, buzzer-beater.
Duke is 7-1 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season. The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in home games off a home win over the last two years. Virginia hasn't won at Cameron Indoor Stadium in more than 20 years. The Cavaliers are 0-16 SU in their last 16 trips to Duke with their last win coming in 1995. Take Duke Saturday.
|
02-13-16 |
Louisville v. Notre Dame -1 |
Top |
66-71 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 30 m |
Show
|
20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -1
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are really playing as well as anyone in the ACC right now. They are coming off back-to-back huge wins with an 80-76 home victory over UNC and an 89-83 road win at Clemson, winning outright as underdogs in both contests.
Now the Fighting Irish return home to face Louisville. We are getting them at a great price here as only 1-point favorites considering the Fighting Irish are 12-1 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 15.1 points per game.
Louisville cannot really be trusted right now because it was recently handed down sanctions for this season. The Cardinals have a quality team this year, but they have to be disheartened knowing that they won't be playing in the postseason either way. It's also worth noting that the Cardinals are just 3-4 in true road games this season.
Louisville is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won six or seven of their last eight games this season. Notre Dame is 60-37 ATS in its last 97 games off a win by 6 points or less. The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games overall. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|
02-13-16 |
Kansas v. Oklahoma -4 |
|
76-72 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
15* Kansas/Oklahoma ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Oklahoma -4
Simply put, the Oklahoma Sooners are the best team in the Big 12, and they'll come out and prove it at home today against the Kansas Jayhawks. The Jayhawks have won 11 straight regular season Big 12 titles, but that streak comes to an end this year, and this game will have a lot to do with it.
The Sooners want revenge from a 106-109 triple-overtime loss at Kansas in their first meeting this season on January 4th. They should have no problem getting that revenge at home this time around. After all, the Sooners are 12-0 at home this season and outscoring the opposition by 18.7 points per game in the process.
Kansas is actually just 1-3 in its last four Big 12 road games with its only win coming at TCU. The Jayhawks lost by 11 at West Virginia, by 19 at Oklahoma State, and by 13 at Iowa State, so they weren't even close to winning any of those three games, either.
Kansas is 3-12 ATS in road games after having won 12 or more of its last 15 games over the last three seasons. The Sooners will make a big-time statement today behind Buddy Hield and company. Hield had 46 points in the first meeting and will be locked in from start to finish. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|
02-13-16 |
Arkansas v. Ole Miss -3 |
|
60-76 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 31 m |
Show
|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -3
Fade Arkansas on the road, and back the Razorbacks at home. That's as simple as it gets, but it's true. The Razorbacks are 1-7 in true road games this season, including an ugly 46-78 loss at Mississippi State last time out.
Ole Miss comes into this game playing very well. It won at Missouri 76-73, beat a good Vanderbilt team 85-78 at home, and only lost by 5 at Florida as 8.5-point dogs last time out in its last three games. In fact, the Rebels are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
Backing Ole Miss at home has been a solid move this season as well. The Rebels are 9-2 SU at home this season with their only two losses coming to Florida and South Carolina. Get this, Ole Miss is 14-3 SU & 14-2-1 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Arkansas, so home-court advantage has obviously been huge in this series.
The Razorbacks are 30-62 ATS in their last 92 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Rebels are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. The Razorbacks are 7-20-2 ATS in their last 29 meetings with the Rebels overall. Take Ole Miss Saturday.
|
02-13-16 |
Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -1 |
|
55-58 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 6 m |
Show
|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma State -1
The Oklahoma State Cowboys were in a big letdown spot in their first meeting with Kansas State this season. They were coming off a huge win over Kansas, and they promptly laid and egg at Kansas State in their next game by a final of 73-89.
But now the Cowboys will be locked in as they are coming off three consecutive defeats, all by 7 points or less. They want to get back in the win column, and they certainly want revenge from that earlier defeat, so they will be the more motivated team here.
Of course, the key is that home-court advantage has been huge in this series. Indeed, Oklahoma State is 10-1 in its last 11 home meetings with Kansas State. The last two meetings in Stillwater resulted in Cowboys' blowouts by 14 and 16 points. The home team is also 9-0 SU in the last nine meetings and 17-4 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Kansas State is 1-6 SU in true road games this season. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.
|
02-12-16 |
UCLA +11.5 v. Arizona |
Top |
75-81 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
20* UCLA/Arizona ESPN Friday No-Brainer on UCLA +11.5
Three losses in four games have put the UCLA Bruins back on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Now they have a lot of work to do again this season after barely making it as a 13-loss team last year, and then surprisingly making a deep run.
The Bruins have big wins over Kentucky, Gonzaga and Arizona this season, and now they have a chance to add another while going for the season sweep of the Wildcats. UCLA has had a lot of time to correct its mistakes after last playing on February 4th in a bad loss at USC.
UCLA has given Arizona all it could handle over the past couple seasons. It won the first meeting 87-84 at home this season, which was one of many close games in this series of late. In fact, each of the last 11 meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer, which is less than this 11.5-point margin.
Better yet, UCLA hasn't lost to Arizona by more than 11 points in any of the last 15 meetings, making for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Bruins pertaining to tonight's 11.5-point spread. I fully expect a big effort from the Bruins here, who simply need this win more. Bet UCLA Friday.
|
02-11-16 |
Oregon State v. Stanford -2 |
|
62-50 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -2
The Stanford Cardinal are coming off a tough 3-game road trip in which they lost at Colorado, Utah and California. But now they get to return home and will get back in the win column tonight against Oregon State.
The Cardinal are 9-4 at home this season, including 3-2 in conference play with wins over the likes of Utah, California and Arizona State. Their only losses came to Colorado (by 1) and Arizona.
Oregon State is 0-4 in conference road games this season. It has blowout losses to Colorado (by 17), Arizona State (by 18) and Arizona (by 17), as well as a loss at Utah (by 6). The Beavers have already lost at home to Stanford 72-78 in their first meeting this season, too.
Stanford is a sensational 16-1 SU in its last 17 home meetings with Oregon State. That includes a 75-48 blowout win in its last home meeting last season. The Beavers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Oregon State is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 road games overall. The Beavers are 0-8 ATS in road games after playing two consecutive home games over the last two seasons. Take Stanford Thursday.
|
02-11-16 |
Iowa v. Indiana -1.5 |
Top |
78-85 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 4 m |
Show
|
20* Iowa/Indiana ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Indiana -1.5
First place in the Big Ten is on the line when the Iowa Hawkeyes visit the Indiana Hoosiers Thursday night. I'll gladly side with the home team in this matchup considering they basically just have to win the game to cover the 1.5-point spread.
The Hoosiers are coming off a bad loss at Penn State and will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight in front of a raucous home crowd. After all, the Hoosiers do not lose at home, going 13-0 while outscoring the opposition by a whopping 27.4 points per game on the season.
Iowa has been vulnerable on the road this season. It is just 7-4 in all games played away from home. The Hawekeyes are overvalued due to a soft recent schedule against Northwestern, Penn State and Illinois in their last three games. Now they take a big step up in competition, similar to when they lost 68-74 at Maryland on January 28.
Indiana is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 home games with a line of +3 to -3. The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons. Indiana is 8-1 ATS vs. teams who outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game after 15-plus games over the last three years. Bet Indiana Thursday.
|
02-10-16 |
Boise State v. Colorado State +3.5 |
|
93-97 |
Win
|
101 |
8 h 10 m |
Show
|
15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado State +3.5
The Colorado State Rams are showing solid value as home underdogs to the Boise State Broncos tonight. This is a team that has really impressed me in its last two games, losing at San Diego State 67-69 as 11.5-point dogs, and beating Nevada 76-67 at home as 2.5-point favorites.
Boise State is on a downward spiral and has no business being favored in this game tonight. The Broncos are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall with their only win coming at home by 3 as 11-point favorites over Utah State. They lost by 10 at UNLV and by 8 at Air Force despite being 11.5-point favorites, and lost by 5 at home to New Mexico as 8-point favorites.
Colorado State wants revenge from an 80-84 road loss at Boise State as 11-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 2nd. Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings.
Boise State is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games off a loss to a conference opponent as a favorite of 6 points or more. The Broncos are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a ATS loss. Take Colorado State Wednesday.
|
02-10-16 |
LSU v. South Carolina -3 |
Top |
83-94 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 41 m |
Show
|
20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on South Carolina -3
The South Carolina Gamecocks have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They are 20-3 SU & 14-5 ATS this year, and now they are undervalued once again tonight as only 3-point home favorites over the LSU Tigers.
Considering South Carolina is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and outscoring opponents by 15.3 points per game, it's easy to see why there is a lot of value on the Gamecocks here tonight.
LSU is just 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in all road games this season, true and neutral. The Tigers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine true road games. LSU is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
South Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Gamecocks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games. South Carolina is 9-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season. The Gamecocks are 10-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt at least 25 free throws per game over the last two seasons. Bet South Carolina Wednesday.
|
02-09-16 |
West Virginia v. Kansas -6.5 |
|
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
15* WVU/Kansas ESPN 2 Tuesday No-Brainer on Kansas -6.5
The Kansas Jayhawks will be highly motivated for a victory tonight when they host the West Virginia Mountaineers. That's because this is a revenge game for the Jayhawks, who suffered one of their four losses this season at West Virginia on January 12.
The Mountaineers actually own a one-game lead over the Jayhawks within the conference by virtue of that earlier victory, threatening Kansas' 11-year reign as Big 12 champs. Believe me, this Kansas team does not want to be the one responsible for that streak coming to an end this season.
Kansas is 38-0 in its last 38 games at Allen Fieldhouse, including 28-0 in its last 28 Big 12 games. The Jayhawks clearly have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and rarely will you get the opportunity to back them as only 6.5-point home favorites like they are tonight. We'll take advantage.
West Virginia is 14-31 ATS in its last 45 road games off two straight conference wins. Kansas is 9-2 ATS following a cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons. The Jayhawks are 10-2 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two years. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Roll with Kansas Tuesday.
|
02-08-16 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson -2 |
|
89-83 |
Loss |
-103 |
9 h 47 m |
Show
|
15* Notre Dame/Clemson ESPNU Monday No-Brainer on Clemson -2
The Clemson Tigers are one of the most underrated teams in the ACC this season. They have gone 7-4 SU & 9-2 ATS in ACC play this season and are a legitimate NCAA Tournament team. But they need to keep piling up the quality wins, and they have another chance to get one tonight.
Clemson has a huge home-court advantage this season as it is 11-2 SU & 7-2 ATS in lined games at home this year. In fact, the Tigers are a perfect 5-0 at home in ACC play with wins over the likes of Florida State, Louisville, Duke, Miami and Pitt. So they've taken on the ACC's best and beat them all at home. After a 3-game road trip, the Tigers will be looking forward to getting back home tonight.
Notre Dame is coming off a huge come-from-behind home win over then-No. 2 North Carolina 80-76 on Saturday. It is now ripe for a letdown tonight off such a big win, and this is also a lookahead spot as the Fighting Irish have a home game against Louisville on deck. The Irish have lost their last two road games by 15 at Syracuse and by 9 at Miami and are just 4-6 in all game away from home this year.
The Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a ATS win. The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. Clemson is 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss. The Tigers are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good teams who outscore opponents by 8-plus points per game after 15-plus game over the last two seasons. These four trends combine for a perfect 20-0 system backing the Tigers. Roll with Clemson Monday.
|