Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-25-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Denver Nuggets OVER 208.5 | Top | 101-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
3* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" BLOWOUT on Lakers/Nuggets OVER 208.5
3 straight unders in this series have brought the total down 5 points since Game 1 and now the books will pay for making such a mistake. We saw these teams score 208 and 209 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 and after totaling only 200 in a poor shooting Game 3, I expect to see a shootout. Denver is averaging 108.2 ppg at home this season and the Lakers are averaging 104.6 ppg on the road. Denver is 36-9 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score in these games was DENVER 112.7, OPPONENT 107.8. And the Lakers are 37-11 OVER when both teams score 98 or more points in a game this season. The average score was LA LAKERS 113.2, OPPONENT 107.6. Bet the Over. |
|||||||
05-24-09 | Cleveland Cavaliers +1.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 89-99 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
5* Game 3 Monster BEST BET (TNT) on Cavs +1.5
LeBron's game winner in Game 2 saved the Cavs. Now I expect them to play with a greater sense of urgency to avoid falling behind in this series again. The Cavs have held huge leads in both Games 1 and 2 and have let the Magic claw their way back. I expect the Cavs to show a much greater killer instinct from here on out. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win and 22-9 ATS in their last 31 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or less points. The Magic have struggled at home in the small chalk at 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 4.5 or less. With the momentum gained in Game 2, I expect the Cavs to steal its home court back tonight. |
|||||||
05-23-09 | Los Angeles Lakers +4 v. Denver Nuggets | Top | 103-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Game of the Year (ABC) on Lakers +4
First off, the Lakers are one of the finest road teams in the NBA at 31-15 this season. Secondly, each time LA has lost in these playoffs, it has responded with a convincing double digit win. In fact, the Lakers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Thirdly, anytime you can get LA catching points, it is worth strong consideration, especially in a bounce back spot. The Lakers are 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games as an underdog and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as an underdog of 4.5 or less points. Plus, LA is 17-6 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons. There's no question the books have overvalued the Nuggets here as the public is jumping on their bandwagon. The Nuggets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Lakers are 41-14 SU against Denver since 1996 and 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Pound LA tonight as they win this one outright! |
|||||||
05-22-09 | Orlando Magic v. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 188.5 | Top | 95-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
5* NBA Eastern Conference Finals TOTY (TNT) on Magic/Cavs UNDER 188.5
The public is all over the over here and that is exactly where the sportsbooks want it. We saw a total score of 213 points in Game 1, and odds makers only raised the total 4.5 points? Exactly. Adjustments are going to be made by both teams on the defensive end, and you can expect to see the Cavs team which is only allowing 87.7 ppg at home tonight. Orlando is 19-6 UNDER after a close win by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons, 10-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons, and Cleveland is 14-2 UNDER after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread this season. The Under is 11-4 in Magic last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 8-1 in Cavaliers last 9 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. 7 of 11 games over the last 3 seasons have gone Under in this matchup. Bet the Under! |
|||||||
05-20-09 | Orlando Magic +9 v. Cleveland Cavaliers | Top | 107-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
5* Game 1 MONSTER BEST BET on Magic +9
The Cavs have won each of their 8 playoff games by 10 or more points so odds makers are begging for action on Cleveland with this line, but we won't bite. The Magic match up very well with the Cavs as Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and Hedo Turkoglu all pose matchup problems. This is why Orlando has had Cleveland's number. The Magic won the season series 2-1 and have won 4 of the last 5 and 8 of the last 11 overall. And when they haven't won, they have been right there to cover. The Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland and 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Orlando is 15-6 ATS as an underdog this season and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. It's also important to note that the Cavaliers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning pct. above .600. The Magic are coming off a very intense series while the Cavs have had a cake walk to this point. I expect the Magic to be ready to go here as it takes Cleveland some time to match intensity and to lose its rust after a long layoff. Bet the Magic. |
|||||||
05-19-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Lakers -6.5 | Top | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Vegas Line Mistake of the Year on LA Lakers -6.5
This line is soft. The Lakers are not going to be caught sleeping tonight after what happened in Game 1 of their last series, and they are not going to be showing any rust as they haven't had a long layoff coming into this series. Plan on LA making a statement tonight. Denver has looked great in these playoffs, but that's because it has played the majority of its games at home. Outside of a 58-point win at New Orleans, the Nuggets have looked like an ordinary team away from home in the playoffs. They are 2-2 on the road in the postseason and 6-11 in their last 17 road games overall. LA has had Denver's number. Over the last 3 seasons, LA is 11-4 SU and ATS in all meetings. The Lakers are 24-2 SU and 18-6 ATS at home against Denver since 1996 and 7-1 SU and ATS at home against the Nuggets the last 3 seasons. The Nuggets are only 2-10 ATS in the last 12 meetings overall and 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Los Angeles. LA is winning its games by an average of 10.6 points at home and has won each of its home games against Denver by 14 points this season. Denver is only 5-17 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons, losing to these teams by an average score of 96.7 to 107.1. Cash in with the Lakers! |
|||||||
05-17-09 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -12.5 | Top | 70-89 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Game 7 BEST BET on Lakers -12.5
After a double digit loss in Houston in Game 4, the Lakers returned home and gave the Rockets a 40-point beat down and I anticipate a similar course of events today. I don't expect this one to be that bad, but I do expect the Lakers to dominate from start to finish. Plays on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 54-15 ATS the last 5 seasons and the Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss period. Also, Houston is 2-10 ATS off an upset win as an underdog this season and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games in LA. Houston did steal Game 1 in LA, but the Lakers have wins of 29, 12, 13, and 40 points at home against Houston this season. That's a 23.5-point average margin of victory. I'll back the Lakers at home in this bounce back spot. |
|||||||
05-14-09 | Boston Celtics v. Orlando Magic -6.5 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Blowout of the Year on Magic -6.5
I'll back the Magic at home in this do-or-die Game 6. Orlando came out with great intensity in Game 5, but ultimately couldn't get the job done down the stretch. I'm expecting even more intensity tonight with its playoff life on the line and playing in front of its home crowd. Dwight Howard has called out his coach and now I expect him to back up his words with his play tonight. I also feel great about the fact that the public is putting its money on Boston here and odds makers have moved the line the other way. This is a clear sign that the Magic are the team the books feel will cover this number. Orlando is 12-4 ATS off a road loss this season, winning by an average score of 102.6 to 89.3 in these games. The Magic are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and 49-21-1 ATS in their last 71 games following a SU loss. Expect the Magic to bounce back big tonight! |
|||||||
05-12-09 | Orlando Magic v. Boston Celtics -2 | Top | 88-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
5* Eastern Conference Playoffs GOTY on Celtics -2
With Big Baby's 21-foot buzzer beater the Boston Celtics regained home court and take a huge amount of momentum back home with them for tonight's matchup. I can't see the Celtics giving their home court away tonight as they now know they are in position to win this series. The Boston crowd will be electric and I can't see Ray Allen's struggles continuing any further. Orlando is 8-26 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996 while Boston is 16-4 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. Plus, the Magic are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 meetings in the Garden. I'll bet Boston at home laying a small number tonight. |
|||||||
05-11-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -1.5 | Top | 117-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs Do-or-Die GOTY (TNT) on Mavs -1.5
A blown call by the officials has put the Mavs in an 0-3 hole, but I don't see the Mavs pouting about it tonight in front of their home crowd. Instead, they will have way more motivation to win than most teams facing an 0-3 deficit. I don't expect Denver to be going for the jugular tonight either after such an emotionally and physically draining Game 3, especially when they can close this thing out back at home in Game 5. So expect a letdown from the Nugs here. Dallas has won 20 of the last 26 at home in this matchup and we've got three more big time systems backing the Mavs here: Plays On - Favorites (DALLAS) - revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 29-9 ATS since 1996, Plays On - Home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 71-33 ATS since 1996, and Plays On - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DALLAS) - off a upset loss as a favorite, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 44-15 ATS since 1996. The Nuggets are the better team and will win this series, but a proud Dallas team survives at home tonight. |
|||||||
05-10-09 | Los Angeles Lakers v. Houston Rockets OVER 194 | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
5* NBA Playoffs "TOTAL" Blowout on Lakers/Rockets OVER 194
Without Yao Ming in the lineup, I expect the pace of Game 4 to really pick up, which makes this a strong Overs opportunity. The Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2 in Rockets last 7 playoff games as an underdog. The Over is 6-1 in Lakers last 7 games following a ATS win, 5-1 in Lakers last 6 Conference Semifinals games, and 6-2 in Lakers last 8 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Over gets the call today. |
|||||||
05-09-09 | Denver Nuggets v. Dallas Mavericks -4 | Top | 106-105 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
5* Saturday NBA Playoffs BOMB on Mavs -4
While Denver has played exceptionally well in these playoffs, it has done the majority of its damage at home. The Mavericks are quite the home squad as well, going 34-9 this season. Dallas has won 20 of its last 25 home games against the Nuggets. Dating back to the regular season, the Mavs have won 8 in a row, 17 of their last 18, and 22 of their last 24 at home. They are an extraordinary home team and I expect them to leave it all out on the floor knowing that 0-3 is as good as done. What cannot be overshadowed when looking at the Nuggets is that they are just 1-3 their L4 and 5-10 their L15 road games. The Nuggets are only 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as an underdog. Plays on favorites (DALLAS) revenging 4 or more losses vs opponent in last 2 years, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 29-8 ATS since 1996 and plays on home favorites (DALLAS) - triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), and 71-32 ATS since 1996. Lay the points with the Mavs. |
|||||||
05-08-09 | Los Angeles Lakers -115 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 108-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Lakers pk
I don't see the Lakers trailing in this series again. Game 1 was a wake up call and LA showed in Game 2 that it would not be out-muscled by the Rockets with its physical play. The Lakers won both meetings at Houston during the regular season, and I expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers will be without Fisher, but that gives the Rockets no real advantage as Jordan Farmar is very capable of stepping in. The LA Lakers are 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with LA winning these game by an average score of 111.9 to 96.4. It's hard to get quality shots without good ball movement stemming from penetration, and the Rockets don't get good penetration nearly enough. Houston is only 2-13 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 100 or more points this season. Lastly, plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA LAKERS) - an explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more, are 32-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. This super system makes my last point. The Lakers just have too much fire power to contend with. Take LA! |
|||||||
05-07-09 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 177.5 | Top | 85-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
5* 2009 NBA Playoffs Total of the Year on Hawks/Cavs OVER 177.5
The Hawks will go hard tonight to try to steal a game on the road, pushing this one over the total in the process. I don't really see the Hawks stopping the Cavs defensively. Atlanta is allowing 99.6 ppg on the road this season and Cleveland is scoring 102.1 ppg at home. But I do see the Hawks scoring way more than they did in Game 1 as Joe Johnson comes to life tonight. During the regular season, the Hawks scored 96 points in each game at Cleveland so this team is capable of scoring the basketball against the Cavs. 18 of 25 games in this series played at Cleveland have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1996, but here's the clincher: Plays Over on any team in the second round of the playoffs, in the 2nd game of a playoff series are 32-6 the last 5 seasons. Bet the Over tonight! |
|||||||
05-06-09 | Houston Rockets v. Los Angeles Lakers -9.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
5* Game 2 BEST BET (TNT) on Lakers -9.5
The Lakers cannot afford to fall behind 0-2 in this series so I expect a very motivated effort tonight on their home floor. Expect the Lakers to do a better job of getting out in transition where they can exploit Yao Ming's foot speed and they take advantage of their superior athletes. Plays on all home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 44-16 ATS the last 5 seasons so right away we see the profitability of this bounce back situation. Plus, the Lakers are 17-5 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 7 days over the last 2 seasons, winning in these spots by 12.9 points on average. The Rockets played a perfect Game 1, but I expect Coach Jackson and the Lakers to make the necessary adjustments to send a message to the Rockets tonight. On top of that, the Lakers here the experts talking about the Nuggets being the team to beat in the West right now, and I expect that will light a fire under their butts as well. I'll lay the number. |
|||||||
05-05-09 | Atlanta Hawks v. Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5 | Top | 72-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
5* Game 1 BEST BET on Cavs -11.5
Thanks to the Lakers not showing up last night, the Cavs will be ready here in Game 1 as they are not about to let the Hawks take them by storm. Atlanta has struggled on the road all season while the Cavs are 41-2 at home with a 14.4 point margin of victory. We saw Atlanta lose 3 games by double digit margins in its first round series against a Heat team that is far less explosive on offense and far inferior on defense than the Cavs. Cleveland is 7-0 ATS in home games off a road win by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 109.0 to 85.7, 7-0 ATS after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more this season, winning in these spots by an average score of 105.4 to 87.1, and 16-1 ATS after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half this season, winning by an average score of 103.1 to 86.7 in these spots. The Hawks are also 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. Lay the points. |