Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 106 h 48 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. The 49'ers are running the ball a lot (5th most rushing attempts per game in the NFL) and are quietly playing outstanding defense. The frequent running plays are keeping the clock moving and keeping opposing offenses off the field. They limited the Packers to 10 points after holding Dallas to 17. Their last seven opponents have all scored 24 or less, an average of just 16. They held the Rams to an average of 17 points in the first two meetings. The Rams allowed Brady to come back last weekend and that led to a high final score. However, somewhat lost in that final score was the fact that the Rams' defense was again dominant, at least prior to the comeback. Remember, the shot of Brady bleeding from the mouth? Remember, what the Rams defense did to Kyler Murray and the Cards the previous week? The UNDER is 6-0 the past six times that the 49'ers were road underdogs in the playoffs. The UNDER is also 17-4 the past 21 times that the Rams were listed as home favorites. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 111 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Cincy/KC UNDER the total. I thought this O/U line might rise from its opening number. It has. While I'm not surprised by that move, I feel that its adding value to what was already a generously high number. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. I lost with the Chiefs 'under' in their win over the Bills. The final score would suggest that was a terrible play. Though a loss is a loss, I don't feel that was the case though. The reality was that if the Bills didn't convert a 4th and long late in the game, the final score stays below the total. The majority of the scoring drives were very time consuming, as I had anticipated. Even with them ending in TD's instead of FG's, the score was still reasonable until the final couple of minutes. With that crazy Bills/Chiefs game fresh in their minds and also the high-scoring Week 17 game between these teams, many will be expecting another shootout on Sunday. That sentiment is helping to drive the number up. While we won't know until later in the week if the Chiefs will have safety Mathieu (concussion protocol) back, the hope is that he will be able to return. Reid noted that he felt good. Needless to say, the Chiefs missed him against the Bills. If he didn't take an accidental knee to the head early in that game, things likely would have played out differently. While all the talk about the Bengals revolves around their explosive offense, they just beat the Titans 19-16. That's three straight games that have finished with 45 or fewer combined points. While the reg. season game at Cincy was high-scoring, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five meetings here at KC. The UNDER is also now 6-0 the Bengals' last six playoff games. Expect those stats to improve on Sunday afternoon. |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 55 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -105 | 131 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER the total. Both these teams saw their WC games go 'over' the total. Both offenses certainly looked impressive. Many will also recall that the last two meetings between these teams, one this past October and one last January, were also high-scoring. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they've helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Yes, the offenses are potent. However, let's not forget that the Bills also have the best defense in football. They allow the fewest number of points per game and they also allow the fewest yards per game and per play. In terms of points allowed per game, the Chiefs are a top #10 defense. They're a different team now than they were when they faced the Bills last season, or even earlier this season. The gameplan wasn't working early on so Reid and co. changed things up. They started taking what the opposing defense gave them and having much longer scoring drives. It should also be mentioned that the Chiefs have been particularly stingy at home. Since the Bills beat them here in October, the Chiefs have played seven home games. They allowed 21, 10, 9, 9, 9, 7 and 17 points. That's an average of less than 12 ppg allowed, over the past seven games here. While many will be expecting a shootout, I say that the defense/s rises to the occasion and that the final combined score stays below the generously high total. |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 157 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/LA UNDER the total. Both regular season meetings finished above the total. Likewise, both teams saw last week's game finish above the number. Those results have worked in our favor though, as they're helping to provide us with an extra high O/U line. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Prior to the game against Seattle, the Cards had seen three straight games fall below the total. They scored 12, 16 and 25 points. Its not a coincidence that the offense started struggling right after Hopkins went down. As of this writing, as per ESPN's Adam Schefter, he "could be back for the NFC Championship but it would be unrealistic for him to return any sooner." (Even if he somehow did manage to return, its hard to imagine him being 100%.) Having lost that game against the Hawks, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that Arizona failed to cover its previous game. Note that the Cards run the ball more regularly than many realize. They rank #7th in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. They'll be doing everything they can to establish the run to help keep their hosts' offense off the field. The Rams (27-24) game against the 49'ers went to OT. That marked the fifth straight time that they've scored 30 or less. Having allowed Garoppolo to throw for 314 yards, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that the Rams had allowed their previous opponent to gain 250 or more yards through the air. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 27 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/Dallas UNDER the total. Cowboys/49'ers facing each other in the playoffs. Feels like old times. While the 49'ers got down and were forced to throw for a lot of yards in their Week 18 game vs. the Rams, this is a SF team which likes to establish the run. Arguably, the 49'ers' season turned around in a game (31-10 win over LA) where they ran the ball, over and over. In fact, both teams are in the top half of the NFL, when it comes to how often they like to run the ball. The 49'ers rank fifth in the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. The Cowboys rank #12th. They're #7 and #9, respectively, in terms of rushing yards per game. So, we've got a pair of teams which are going to run the ball regularly. That will help to keep this clock moving. As for the Rams game, it finished with 48 points in regulation; the winning field goal came in OT. Also, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that SF had accumulated 250 or more passing yards, in its previous game. Prior to the LA game, the 49'ers had been involved in four straight games which stayed below the total. Scores were 30, 37, 44 and 49. (The 49-point game saw nine points scored in OT.) The Cowboys defense is better than advertised. Even after last week's game got crazy, they've still held six of their last nine opponents to 20 or fewer points. Two of those teams got less than seven. Not surprisingly, six of the Cowboys' past 10 games have stayed below the total. Look for this one to do the same. |
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01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 46 | 15-31 | Push | 0 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/TB UNDER the total. This is a generously high O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Eagles run the ball more times per game (32.4) than any team in football. Those frequent running plays will keep the clock moving. Of course, they're unlikely to find things easy against a Tampa run defense which ranked third, in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. When these teams met earlier, Antonio Brown was targeted 13 times. He had nine receptions for 93 yards and a TD. Godwin was only targeted five times. However, he caught all five of those balls. As you're probably aware, neither of those receivers will be available this afternoon. Fournette also put up big numbers (2 TDs) in that game. He's out, too though. The Eagles have seen their past four Wildcard games finish below the total. I say this one does the same. |
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01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44 | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on NE/Buffalo UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in football. Arguably, the two very best. With all due respect to the offenses, this line could easily be lower. NE allows 17.8 ppg. Buffalo allows 17 ppg. Those are the #1 and #2 marks in the NFL. In terms of yards allowed, Buffalo ranks #1, at just 272.8 ypg allowed, and NE ranks #3. Both teams rank in the top half of the league (#8 and #13) in terms of rushing attempts per game, too. So, we're going to have a lot of running the ball to keep the clock moving. During the regular season, the game at NE was high-scoring but the game here at Buffalo was not. Four of the past five meetings in Buffalo have fallen below the total. Expect this one to do the same. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 52.5 | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 170 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. It goes without saying that both teams are loaded, on both sides of the ball. As you're likely aware, the first meeting was fairly high-scoring. It finished comfortably above the total, Alabama winning 41-24. While we're working with a considerably higher O/U number for the rematch, I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Both teams were dominant defensively last game. Alabama limited Michigan to 11 points. Georgia held Cincinnati to only six. In last year's big bowl win over Ohio State, the Tide got four combined TDs from Devonta Smith and Najee Harris. Of course, they no longer have either of those players, both having moved on to the pros. The Tide also got a big game from Metchie III in last year's final. He had eight receptions and averaged better than 10 yards per catch. The Tide won't have him either though. That's a big deal. Metchie had a TD and averaged better than 16 yards per reception in Alabama's December win over Georgia. However, it was Jameson Williams who really torched the Bulldogs. Now, with Metchie out, we saw Alabama change the way that they used Williams. He started doing a lot of the things Metchie had previously done. Either way, Metchie's absence will help allow Georgia to be much better at guarding Williams. A closer look at the stats from the first game shows that it was only one "wild" second quarter where the majority of the points were scored. They only had three in the first, seven in the third and a relatively modest 17 in the fourth. So, 27 points in those three quarters. They're not going to score 38 points in the second quarter this time. In the first meeting, the Tide threw the ball 44 times, while running only 26 times. The Tide had an opposite approach last week though. They ran the ball 47 times, while throwing 28, in the win over Cincinnati. I expect more frequent running plays to be part of the game plan, once again. While the Bulldogs accumulated more than 500 yards of offense against Michigan, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they had gained more than 450 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one turns into a lower-scoring than expected, defensive battle. |
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01-09-22 | Washington Football Team v. Giants OVER 37 | 22-7 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY/Washington OVER the total. This is among the lowest totals on the board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. With this being a "meaningless" game, other than for pride and personal achievements, there is no reason to play conservatively. Yet, there are many offensive players looking to close their season by improving their stats. Judge is demanding his players give their best. I won with Washington 'under' last game but I'd also recently cashed with Washington 'over.' After facing Dallas and Philly in each of their last four games (two each) the Football Team will be happy to face a Giants team which has allowed 29 and 34 points, the past two weeks. This season's earlier meeting had an O/U line of 41 and saw 59 points scored. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 97 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Denver UNDER the total. The Chiefs are off a high-scoring game with the Bengals and have been on an 'over' streak. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high total for Saturday afternoon's game, at Denver. I believe that it'll prove to be too high. The Chiefs know they can score; the offense is in good shape, entering the playoffs. They'd like their defense to have some momentum/confidence though and Denver figures to be the perfect opponent for that. The Broncos have real trouble scoring, regardless of who's behind center. (With Bridgewater out and Lock getting hurt last week, they're likely down to Rypien.) They've failed to score more than 13 points in any of their past three games. While the Bengals lit them up, the Chiefs have still held three of their past five opponents to 10 points or less and six of their past eight opponents to 14 or less. Though they may have nothing to play for, the Broncos are still going to play hard defensively. They don't want to get blown out in front of the home fans. The UNDER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that Denver allowed 30 or more points in its previous game. The last time they allowed 30 or more, the Broncos responded by holding the Chargers to 13 points in their next game. After they gave up 34 to those same Chargers last week, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 41.5 | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Clev/Pittsburgh OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 43. We're working with a lower O/U number on Monday night. In what could be Rothlisberger's last game here, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Browns offense, much healthier than its been in recent games, will be happy to go up against a struggling Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers gave up 36 points last game. That's two of their last three games where they gave up 36. Eight of their past 12 games have produced a minimum of 43 points. Big Ben and co. are fortunate to face a Cleveland defense missing both of its starting safeties. The last time that these teams played here was last January. The O/U line was in the 40s, yet they combined for 85 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improving to 5-0 the past five times that the Steelers allowed more than 350 yards in their previous game. |
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01-02-22 | Jaguars v. Patriots OVER 41 | 10-50 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NE/JAX OVER the total. This is quite a low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. I said the same thing in each of the Jags' last two games. That proved to be accurate both times; they combined with the Jets for 47 points and the Texans for 46. True, this is a much better defense and Belichick is known for his success against rookie QBs. That doesn't mean that the games are necessarily low-scoring though. The last time that the Pats faced a rookie QB, they combined with the Jets for 67 points. Before that, their previous game against a rookie QB was against Houston; they combined with the Texans for 47. Both games finished above the total. That game against the Texans also happened to be the only other time that the Pats were off b2b SU losses, as they are here. Facing a Jags defense which gives up the 27th most points per game in the league, the Pats will be looking to put up a big number. Look for them to do just that, the Jags chipping in enough to send the final combined score below the low number. |
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01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team UNDER 44.5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Washington UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' when these teams met a couple of weeks ago. That O/U line was considerably lower than this one though. I feel that this afternoon's higher line is providing excellent value. Washington is much healthier than it was for the 12/21 game. That's on both sides of the ball though. Washington was fortunate to get off to an early lead in the first game and that forced Philadelphia to score to come back. Even with a healthier offense, I expect the Football Team to have trouble scoring against a determined Eagles defense, which is playing its best football. The Eagles have allowed 10, 17, 18 and 13 points, their past four games. Again, Washington was "fortunate" to even get 17. The Eagles have quietly moved into the #1 spot (taking the lead from the Titans) in terms of rushing attempts, per game. They're now running the ball 32.3 times per game. (Washington ranks #12 in that category.) Of course, frequent running plays keep the clock moving. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 4-0 the past four times that they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards in their previous game. The Football Team, for its part, has seen the UNDER go 5-0 the past five times that it scored 15 or fewer points, the previous game. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss OVER 57 | Top | 21-7 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baylor/Ole Miss OVER the total. Both teams closed out the regular season on 'under' streaks. Those results have kept this O/U line in the 50s, when it otherwise could have easily been in the 60s. Note that Ole Miss games average 64.9 ppg. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both these offenses can put up big numbers. Baylor averages 32.5 ppg. At 35.9 ppg, Ole Miss averages even more. Admittedly, the Baylor defense is solid. However, its not dominant like a Georgia or Alabama defense. The Bears still gave up double-digits in points in each of their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Rebel defense is mediocre, at best. The Rebels allowed at least 14 points in all 12 games this season. Even Austin Peay scored 17 against them. Ole Miss coach Kiffin is known for his tendency to play aggressively. He doesn't mind rolling the dice on fourth down. That'll often lead to points, for and against. On the season, they allowed an average of 25 ppg. Six of the past nine Sugar Bowls have seen at least 54 points scored. Last year's game produced 77 points. They likely won't get that many this year but they'll get "enough." Go with the Over. |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky v. Iowa UNDER 44 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Iowa/Kentucky UNDER the total. We saw some lower-scoring games yesterday and I expect that to continue for this afternoon's Citrus Bowl. This O/U line is low for good reason; Iowa can have real trouble scoring. The Hawkeyes managed only three points last game. That's three times in their last seven games that they scored seven or less. While the offense is far from dominant, the Hawkeyes defense is typically solid. Kentucky got involved in a couple of high-scoring games down the stretch. However the Wildcats are also capable of playing stingy defense. They've allowed 21 or fewer points in each of their last three games. Earlier, they held Florida to 13 and South Carolina to 10. Look for a low-scoring, defensive affair. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia v. Michigan UNDER 46 | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Michigan UNDER the total. Naturally, both offenses are very good. The defenses are arguably even better though. Prior to the Alabama game, the Bulldogs were giving up nothing. No other team, except for the Crimson Tide, scored more than 17 against them. For the season, they allowed an average of only 9.5 points. The Michigan defense was also stout. They closed the season by limiting Iowa to three points. On the season, the Wolverines allowed an average of only 16.1 points. The Wolverines are going to run the ball but that's going to be tough against a Georgia defense which will be loading up against the run. The Bulldogs are also going to be running the ball regularly. That's going to help keep the clock moving and ultimately lead to a low-scoring affair. The UNDER is 4-1-1 the last six times that Georgia was off a SU loss and the UNDER is also 6-1 the last seven times that the Bulldogs were favored in a bowl game. Look for those stats to improve this evening. |
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12-31-21 | Central Michigan v. Washington State OVER 57.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on WSU/CMU OVER the total. The Chippewas can score points with the best of them. They scored more than 30 points in each of their final five games. The defense allowed 30 or more points in three of those games, too. In two games against teams from Power Five conferences, they allowed 34 and 49 points. The Cougars offense really got clicking towards the end of the year. WSU scored 40 and 44 points in its final two games. The last time that they faced a team from outside the Pac 12, they won 44-24. The OVER is 4-0 the past four times that the Cougars were listed as favorites. Look for those stats to improve this afternoon. |
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12-28-21 | Houston v. Auburn OVER 51 | 17-13 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Auburn OVER the total. Cougars vs. Tigers. This is the second lowest O/U line of today's five bowl games. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Tigers are without some players, who opted out. That won't prevent them from scoring though. They come in with a chip on their shoulder. The Tigers averaged 29.6 ppg, despite facing SEC defenses. Having just fired his offensive coordinator, and now taking over the Auburn play-calling, Bryan Harsin is obviously going to want his offense to make him look good. The Tigers are going to need to score, as the Cougars will surely be doing so. Houston averaged more 37 ppg. Like Auburn, the Cougars come in with a chip on their shoulder. Before being held to 20 points by Cincinnati, the Cougars had scored more than 30 points in eight straight games and at least 28, in 11 straight. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-26-21 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys UNDER 47 | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Dallas UNDER the total. The Cowboys have quietly started playing very good defense. They allowed just six points last game and have allowed an average of only 13, their past three games. Washington managed only 237 yards last game. While Heinecke is expected to return, the Football Team is still missing a lot. The Cowboys had a 24-0 lead in the last game. Washington benefitted from a pick-six in coming back to make the final score (27-20) respectable. The Cowboys are going to be careful not to cough up the lead in this one. I expect a heavy dose of the run. Likewise, Washington knows its best hope is to try and keep the Dallas offense off the field. The Football Team, too, should be generous with its share of running plays. Note that both teams rank in the top 10, (they're #9 and #10) in terms of rushing attempts per game. Off last week's 44-point game, Washington has seen nine straight games finish with 48 or fewer points. Dallas, meanwhile, has seen its last three games produce 27, 47 and 44. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than some will be expecting. |
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12-26-21 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 41 | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Jacksonville/NY OVER the total. This is a low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. I said the same thing about Jacksonville's last game. The Jags would allow 30 points to the lowly Texans. While they scored only 16, it was more than enough to finish above the low number. Here's another case where the Jags are facing a team which is strictly playing for pride. No reason for either team to play conservatively. While the Jags give up 26.4 ppg, 27th in the league, the Jets give up 30.6 ppg. That's the worst mark in the entire NFL. The Jets' 391.9 yards allowed per game also ranks dead last. Remember, these QBs were taken #1 and #2 last year. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-26-21 | Lions v. Falcons OVER 42 | 16-20 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Det/Atl OVER the total. I felt somewhat fortunate to cash with the Lions' 'under' in their last game. After all, if someone had told me that they were going to score 30 against Arizona, I wouldn't have liked my chances of the game staying below the number. This week, we're working with a lower O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. It looks like Goff is unlikely to go. That's unfortunate for the Lions, but is also a big part of the reason why we've got a low number. It could easily be higher. Should Boyle get the call, he'll be throwing against a poor Atlanta secondary. Just as the Lions will be up against a poor defense, the same is true of the Falcons. Indeed, neither defense is good. The Lions allow 26.1 ppg. The Falcons allow 27.4. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-26-21 | Chargers v. Texans OVER 45 | 29-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/Hou OVER the total. The Texans are dealing with a lot of Covid issues. Don't expect the Chargers to show them any sympathy though. The Chargers moved the ball effectively against the Chiefs last week but struggled to score TD's. They'll be looking to "get healthy" with an offensive explosion in this one. While the Chargers may come close to exceeding the total all on their own, they won't have to. Though missing some players, the Texans aren't just going to roll over. They scored 30 points last week. Both teams allow more than 26 ppg. Four of the past five meetings have finished with 45 or more points. With the Chargers off three straight games of 58 or more combined points, look for this one to do the same. |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5 | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 37 h 56 m | Show |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/Arizona UNDER the total. While I respect both these offenses, I feel that the O/U number is generously high. These teams both like to run the ball a lot. With Taylor running away with the rushing title, it's not surprising that the Colts rank second in rushing yards and 4th in the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Some might be surprised to learn that the Cards are right behind them. They rank #5, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Of course, with both teams running the ball with regularity, the clock is more likely to keep moving. Both defenses are very capable, too. Both rank in the top 10 in terms of points allowed The Colts held the Pats to 17 points last week. In their previous game, they blanked the Jags. The Cards haven't been happy with their defensive effort lately. However, they still rank #5 in terms of points allowed per game and #7 in terms of rushing yards per game. It should also be noted that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Cards were off a loss. Look for those numbers to improve as this one ends up lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-23-21 | 49ers v. Titans UNDER 45 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 39 h 41 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/Ten UNDER the total. The Titans' offense has really missed Henry. Of course, they're also very banged-up at the receiver position. Either way, Tennessee has scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games, 13 or less in three of those. After scoring 24 or more points in eight straight games, they've scored less than 24 in five straight. During that span, the defense has stepped up. The Titans have allowed just 19 combined points the past two games and 22 or fewer points in five of their last six. Even without Henry, they're going to run the ball frequently. In fact, they still run the ball more times per game than any team in the league. The 49ers are also going to run with regularlity. They rank seventh in terms of rushing attempts (and rushing yards) per game. That'll keep the clock moving. Both the 49ers and the Titans are tough to run against though. So, they'll be running but the yards won't be coming easily. The 49'ers allowed just 13 points last game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas OVER 54.5 | 27-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on UNT/Miami Ohio OVER the total. Kent State's game (52-38 final) against Wyoming reminded us how high-scoring these games with MAC teams can be. Speaking of Kent State, that's the team which Miami Ohio faced in its most recent game. That one finished with 95 points, a 48-47 final. Over its final six games, Miami scored 34, 24, 33, 45, 34 and 37. North Texas can also really put points on the board. The Mean Green scored 45 in their last game and 49 in their previous one. They've scored 20 or more in eight straight games, 30 or more in five of those. UNT is vulnerable to giving up big plays and Miami is capable of connecting on them. On the other side, the Redhawks are going to have real trouble slowing down the Mean Green. Expect another shootout. |
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12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army OVER 53 | Top | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Army/Missouri OVER the total. While the Knights stalled in the Navy game, they're now facing a less capable defense. I expect them to bounce back with a much better offensive showing this afternoon. Prior to scoring just 13 at Navy, Army had scored 31, 33 and 63 points, in its previous three games. The only other time this season that the Knights scored 14 or less was in their loss at Wisconsin. They bounced back and scored 56 their next time out. Unfortunately, for Army fans, they gave up 70 in the same game. The Tigers do not have a good defense. That's not just because they play in the SEC either. They gave up at least 23 points in every single game this season, an average of 34.7 ppg. The offense can score though. Despite their schedule including the likes of Georgia, the Tigers average 29.7 ppg. While it should be mentioned that Brady Cook will be Missouri's starting QB, I don't expect it to change what the Tigers do. The last time that the Knights were in the Armed Forces Bowl, they scored 70 points. Look for another relatively high-scoring affair. |
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12-21-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles OVER 41.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Philadelphia OVER the total. It still remains to be seen who Washington's QB will be. These are certainly strange times. Regardless who starts at QB, don't expect "Riverboat Ron" to play things much differently. Weather can be an issue at this time of year. However, it shouldn't be a factor. It'll be cold. However, there won't be wind. Neither offense has been slowed down too much, of late. The Eagles scored 33 in their last game. They've scored at least 30 in three of their past four and at least 21 points in 10 of their last 11. Washington scored 20 last time out and has scored at least 17 in five straight. Three of the past four meetings have finished with at least 44 points and the OVER is 5-2 the last seven times that Washington played here. More of the same on Tuesday night. |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State OVER 59 | 52-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Kent State / Wyoming OVER the total. There should be plenty of points in this afternoon's bowl game. Seven of Kent State's last eight games finished with greater than 60 points. They scored 30 or more themselves in seven of those. Five of those finished with more than 84! Wyoming just gave up 38 points to Hawaii. So, the Flashes figure to have another big day. The Cowboys should too, however. They scored 44 or more points three different times this season. All three of those opponents, that they scored 44 or more against, were "bowl teams," too. They scored 44 against Utah State, 45 vs. Ball State and 50 vs. NIU. So, they should absolutely be able to put up another big number against a porus KSU defense which allowed an average of 35.1 ppp, 125th worst in the country. Kent State also gives up 467 ypg, 123rd worst. Expect plenty of fireworks. |
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12-20-21 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44 | Top | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Minnesota OVER the total. I've had success with the 'over' with both these teams recently and I feel that this number will again prove to be too low. The Vikings score a lot of points. They also give up a lot. They average 26.5 ppg and allow 25.6 ppg. They've played even higher-scoring games lately. Each of their last six games has finished with at least 47 combined points. Those games had scores of 64, 56, 60, 65, 47 and 65. Ten of their 13 games have produced at least 47 points. Yet, due to the fact that they're playing the Bears, the O/U line is still relatively low. However, the Bears aren't as stingy as they've been in the past. They're allowing 25.5 ppg. Last week, they allowed 45 points. They scored 31 though. That 75-point affair was preceded by a 55-point game. The most recent meeting between these teams was exactly one year ago, to the day. That 12/20/20 game saw consistent scoring throughout each quarter (both teams scored in all four quarters) and finished with 60 combined points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-19-21 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 45 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/TB OVER the total. The Saints offense got back on track last week. They scored 30 points en route to a dominating performance. The offense will carry the confidence gained into this evening's game. It helps that they'll face a Tampa defense which is banged-up in the secondary. Remember, they scored 36 in the earlier game against the Bucs. The Saints permitted only 78 yards on the ground and just 256 overall, last week. However, it's worth mentioning that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that NO had allowed less than 90 rushing yards in its previous game. They're obviously up against a far more formidable offense here. The champs have scored 30 or more in four straight games. In fact, they average 31.5 ppg, which is #1 in the league. At home, that number climbs to a whopping 37.5 ppg. They've scored 30 or more in every game here, going over the 40 mark more than once. It's true that Coach Payton will not be on the sidelines and that a defensive coordinator will be calling the shots. They're not going to do anything differently though. This season's earlier meeting saw 63 points scored; three of the past four meetings have produced at least 47 combined points. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
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12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Jacksonville OVER the total. This is a very low total. The lowest on the board, in fact. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. While neither offense has performed well (the reason for the low number) these are also two porous defenses. Both offenses will be looking to pad their stats against the weakest defense which they will have seen in some time. The Texans allow 27.4 ppg, third worst in the NFL. The Jags aren't much better as they allow 26.2 With neither team going to the playoffs, there's little reason to play conservatively. This season's first meeting produced 58 points and each of the past three meetings have seen at least 44 points scored. Expect another relatively high-scoring affair. |
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12-19-21 | Cardinals v. Lions UNDER 47.5 | Top | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Detroit UNDER the total. I've won with both of these teams to go 'over' recently. I won with the Lions 'over' in their game against the Vikings two weeks ago and the Cards 'over' in their game against the Bears, in the same week. I'm expecting a lower-scoring affair in this one though. While they did have success moving the ball against the Vikings, the Lions were back to their old ways on offense last week. They managed only 10 points. They've scored fewer than 20 points in 10 of their last 11 games. Throw out the Minnesota game (Arizona is a lot stingier than Minnesota) and they've scored an average of only 11 points, over their past five. Taking Hopkins out of the offense makes Arizona less dangerous. While the Lions failed to cover last week, note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that they were off an ATS loss. It should also be mentioned that the UNDER is 6-1-1 (or 7-1) the past eight times that Arizona was listed as a road favorite. Expect those stats to improve Sunday afternoon. |
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12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts UNDER 46 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 60 m | Show |
I'm playing on NE/Indy UNDER the total. The Colts and Patriots met nine times from 2009 to 2018. Every single game finished 'over' the total. Each finished with more than 50 points. That's all "ancient history" though; this game is going to be different. It'll feature a heavy dose of the run and two stingy defenses. The Patriots held the Bills to a mere 10 points last week. They've been playing dominant defense. Over the past five games, they've allowed a combined 36 points, an average of just seven per game. Not surprisingly, they rank #1 in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game. The Colts have shown that they can also be very stingy. They didn't allow a single point last week. While that was against a weak Houston team, a shutout is still impressive. They're top 10 in the league (9th) in terms of points allowed per game. Both teams also rank in the top 10, in terms of rushing attempts per game. The Colts are 5th and the Pats are 7th. Naturally, frequent running plays will keep the clock moving. Look for the UNDER to improve to 5-0 the past five times that the Pats played a road game in December. |
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12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LA OVER the total. This season's first meeting had an O/U line of 55. We're working with a lower O/U number here. I feel that i'll prove to be too low. Neither offense is going be easy to stop. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week. In their last road game, they scored 41. While the KC defense has been tough recently, it should be noted that the Chiefs are missing a few important players on that side of the ball. They'll face a Chargers team which scored 37 points last week, after scoring 41 in their previous game. They've scored 37, 41, 20, 24, 47 and 28 points their last six games here. This season's first meeting produced 54 points. It's worth noting that the "rematch" (second game) has been higher-scoring, by at least 10 points, when these teams have played, each of the past two seasons. Last year's second game produced 59 points. |
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12-13-21 | Rams v. Cardinals UNDER 51.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on the UNDER for the 1st Half. Despite having a low O/U line, last night's game saw 48 points scored by halftime and 75 overall. That was fine by me, as I had a play on the 'over.' Tonight, however, I'm expecting a much different start. Importantly, we're also working with a much higher O/U number than we were last night. The Rams are loaded on defense; they allowed just seven points last week. The Cardinals have even better defensive numbers than LA. They're allowing only 18.6 ppg on the season. That's the fourth best mark in the league. With a final score of 37-20, this season's first meeting was fairly high-scoring. That was also the case with last year's first meeting; it had a final score of 38-28. However, the second meeting was an entirely different story. It had a final score of only 18-7. It should be noted that game ended up a battle of backup QB's, as Goff was out and Murray got hurt. All the same, I'm still expecting tonight's "rematch" to again be lower-scoring. Though I also like the 'under' for the full game, these teams are capable of some late game fireworks and therefore I prefer the first half option. Recall last year's game here, almost exactly one year ago. That Dec 6th game had a modest 21 points in the first half but the teams combined for 45 in the second half. Expect another relatively slow start, the final score for the first half, staying below the number. |
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12-12-21 | Bears v. Packers OVER 43 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing Chicago/GB OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Last weekend, we saw a very windy game between the Bills and Patriots. While it's always a bit chilly at Lambeau in December, there won't be big winds like we saw in that game. I expect the offenses to have success. Last week, the Bears combined with Arizona for 55 points. They gave up 33 of those as their defense continues to rank near the bottom of the pack, in terms of points allowed. Meanwhile, the Packers are off b2b games which finished in the mid-60's. Last season's meeting here had an O/U line of 44. The teams combined for 66 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans OVER 40.5 | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Seattle OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Texans do not have a good defense. They allow 26.9 ppg. That's third worst in the league. They also rank fifth worst in terms of yards allowed (379) per game. Some might be surprised to learn that the Seattle defense is even worse, in that category. In fact, at 396.2 allowed per game, the Hawks allow the second most yards in the entire NFL. So, while the offenses haven't been the best, they'll both be working against a "bottom five" defense. Yet, we've got the lowest O/U line on the board. The last meeting between these teams saw 79 points scored. They're unlikely to get that many this time but they will get more than 40. |
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12-11-21 | Navy v. Army OVER 34.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
I'm playing Army/Navy OVER the total. This is a very low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. It's true. Historically, this has been a low-scoring series. We're working with a lower O/U line than any of the recent meetings though. The last 10 have all ranged between 36 and 55.5. This year, Army is very tough to stop. The Knights average 35.5 ppg. In fact, both offenses come in with momentum. While I'm not saying they will, either is capable of going over the very low number by itself. The Knights have scored 31, 33 and 63 their past three games. Meanwhile, Navy scored 38 and 35 in its last two games. Army games avg 58.3 points on the season. Navy games average 50. The 'under' streak comes to an end this afternoon. |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Pittsburgh OVER the total. I've done a pretty good job of recognizing when Pittsburgh's O/U lines are too low. For a game against the Vikings, I believe that'll prove to be the case this evening. The Steelers saw their first four games of the season stay below the total. I recognized that those results led to some really O/U numbers. Since that time, I've played on four Steeler totals, all of them 'overs,' going 4-0. Overall, five of their last eight games have finished above the number. I also played on the Vikings 'over' in their loss against Detroit last week. Here's a small excerpt of what I said: "...The Viking offense is tough to stop. The Vikes have scored 26 or more in four straight games. The defense is far from dominant though. The Vikings allow more than 25 ppg ..." Sure enough, the Vikes scored 27 but allowed 29. Their games are averaging 51.1 ppg on the season. Off that upset loss, note that the OVER is 7-1 the past eight times that the Vikings were off an ATS loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears OVER 42 | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago/Arizona OVER the total. This is a low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Note that both teams play with extra rest. The Cards are off a bye while Chicago played a Thursday game. The Cards have seen three of their last four finish with at least 44 points. They threw for 318 yards last game; the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that they threw for 250 or more yards in their previous game. On the season, their games are averaging 46.6 points. While the Bears are off a pair of low-scoring games, their previous two finished in the 50s. The last time that these teams met here, they combined for 71 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-05-21 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 46.5 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Detroit OVER the total. The O/U line was 50 when these teams met earlier. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 53.5. We're working with a lower number here. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Viking offense is tough to stop. The Vikes have scored 26 or more in four straight games. The defense is far from dominant though. The Vikings allow more than 25 ppg. The Lions can relate. They allow more than 26 ppg. The OVER is 5-0 the last five times that the Vikings played a road game against a team with a losing home record. Last season's game here finished with 72 points. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan UNDER 43.5 | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
I'm playing on Michigan/Iowa UNDER the total. While both teams have been involved in a few relatively high-scoring games recently, I'm expecting points to be hard to come by in this one. Both defenses are outstanding. They allow 17.3 and 17.2 ppg, respectively. That ranks each in the top 10 in the country. They're both top 15, in terms of yards allowed per game, too. The Hawkeyes, who were held to only seven points twice this season, figure to have some trouble scoring. The Wolverines allowed 27 points last game. However, that was against Ohio State. They held their three previous opponents to an average of just 14 points. On the season, they allowed 18 or fewer points in nine of 12 games. No team has scored more than 27 against Iowa all season long. These teams last met in 2019. The score was 10-3. Their previous meeting before that had a score of 14-13. With a heavy dose of the run, from both teams, helping to chew up the clock, expect another low-scoring affair. |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/NO UNDER the total. It wasn't a very happy Thanksgiving for either of these teams. Not for me either, for that matter. I expect both to improve defensively in this one. Prior to getting lit up by the Raiders, the Cowboys were off b2b strong defensive games. The last time that they allowed 30 or more points, they followed it up by allowing just three in their next game. Three of the Cowboys' last four road games, including each of the past two, have been low-scoring. The Saints managed just six points last week. It was the third time that they've scored less than 14 points this season. The defense remains relatively respectable though. They're allowing 22.6 ppg. That's 12th best in the NFL. (The Cowboys are right behind them at #13.) Factoring in last week's result, note that the UNDER is now 9-1-1 the last 11 times that the Saints played on a Thursday. Also, off last week's "aerial showdown," note that the UNDER is a profitable 7-1 the past eight times that Dallas had thrown for more than 250 yards in its previous game. These teams met in both 2018 and 2019. The O/U lines were 47 and 51.5. The scores were 12-10 and 13-10. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-29-21 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washingon/Seattle OVER the total. Last night's game was low-scoring but there should be plenty of points on primetime tonight. Heinecke's confidence is growing and the Washington offense has come alive of late. Despite facing a pair of fairly stingy teams (TB and Carolina) the Football Team has scored 27 and 29 points, its past two games. After scoring 31 points on Halloween, the Seattle offense has stalled in two November games. Those results have worked in our favor, helping to keep this O/U line a little lower than it otherwise would have been. While it's true that the Hawks are dealing with some injuries along the line, tonight offers an excellent opportunity for Wilson to "get healthy." Washington allows 26.7 ppg, the fifth worst mark in the league. The Football Team also ranks fifth worst, in terms of yards per play. Wilson still has plenty of pride; he's been one of the best in the world for years. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the OVER improve |
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11-28-21 | Falcons v. Jaguars OVER 46 | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Atlanta/Jacksonville OVER the total. These teams have both been seeing their recent games finish below the total. The Jaguars have seen five straight (and eight of nine) games fall below the total. The Falcons have seen three of their past four do so. However, a look at Atlanta's four opponents shows that they're all teams with playoff aspirations, the Patriots, Cowboys, Saints and Panthers. Now, they finally get to face a non-playoff team. That should absolutely help to get the offense going. The Jags 26.2 ppg allowed ranks just 26th in the league. The Jags are thinking the same thing though, as the Falcons' defense is even worse. At 28.8 ppg allowed, Atlanta ranks 31st (2nd worst) in the league. True, the Falcons managed only 165 total yards (120 passing, 45 rushing) last week. That suited me just fine. Again, the Jags aren't the Patriots. Look for a big bounce back performance on offense and the OVER to improve to 9-1-1 the last 11 times that Atlanta had managed less than 150 passing yards in its previous game. |
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11-27-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice UNDER 53 | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA Tech/RICE UNDER the total. Its been a disappointing season for both these teams. Each would like to close it out with a win. Both teams having been involved in some recent high-scoring games and both having been profitable 'over' teams on the season. Those results have worked in our favor by helping to provide a generously high total. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. Keep in mind that both teams currently have serious issues on offense, starting at QB. I successfully played against the Bulldogs in their last game. They were favored by -15.5 points. Yet, they scored only 19 in total. That was a home game against one of the worst defenses in the league, a Southern Miss team which had given up more than 500 yards against North Texas, less than two weeks before. These teams didn't play last year but they did in both 2018 and 2019. Those games had O/U lines of 53 and 48.5. The final combined scores were 41 and 43. (In the 43-point game, nine points came in OT.) Look for this one to also prove to be lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 60.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on the OVER in the Egg Bowl. The Rebels have been on an 'under' streak. However, the Bulldogs have been on an 'over' streak. I expect the Bulldogs' streak to be the one which continues. The Bulldogs scored 55 themselves last week. True, that was against a weak opponent. However, the previous week they scored 43, at Auburn. They're averaging more than 40 ppg their last five. While the offense is potent, the Miss. State defense is nothing special. The Bulldogs have allowed 28 or more points six different times, allowing more than 30 each of their past two games against an SEC opponent. The Rebels can score, too. They've scored 27 or more in each of their past three games and 20 or more in every game this season. On the season, they're averaging 36.4 ppg. That's Top 20 in the country. Last year, when these teams met, the O/U line was 70.5. We're working with a considerably lower number here. Expect it to prove to be too low. |
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11-25-21 | Bears v. Lions OVER 41 | 16-14 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Chicago/Detroit OVER the total. This is the lowest O/U line on the board. I believe the low number is providing us with plenty of value and I look for it to prove to be too low. The Bears had to play in the cold and in the wind last week. That's often the case for their games at this time of the year. Likewise, the Lions are off a game in wet, muddy, ugly weather. However, with Ford Field being a domed stadium, there are no weather issues. That should help the offenses. The Lions and Texans combined for 66 points last Thanksgiving. The previous season, the Bears and Lions combined for 44. Neither defense is very good. The Bears allow 24 ppg. The Lions allow 27.3. That's third worst in the NFL. The Bears have won only one road game this season and the OVER is 8-1 the last nine times that the Lions hosted a team with a losing road record. Expect those stats to improve Thursday afternoon. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving! |
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11-22-21 | Giants v. Bucs UNDER 50 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB/NYG UNDER the total. These teams also played last November. The O/U line was 47 and they combined for 48. (I didn't touch the total in that game but did win with the Giants.) We're working with an even higher O/U line tonight. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. While they're determined to get better defensively, the Bucs have still seen three of their past four games fall below the total. They allowed just three points in their last game here. Tonight, they'll face a Giants team which has seen each of its past three games fall below the number. Those games had scores of 39, 37 and 28. Seven of the Giants' nine games, on the season, have finished with fewer than 50 combined points. Both offenses have some key players either out, or banged-up. Off last week's 23-16 win over the Raiders, note that the Giants have seen the UNDER go 8-1 the past nine times that they were coming off an ATS victory. Expect those stats to improve tonight |
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11-21-21 | Steelers v. Chargers OVER 47 | Top | 37-41 | Win | 100 | 109 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/LA OVER total. I won with the 'over' in the Steelers MNF game a couple of weeks ago. I thought that O/U line was too low and that proved to be the case. They're back on primetime tonight and I feel the same way about the total. Its true that the Steelers have been involved in some low-scoring games, the MNF game notwithstanding. A date with the Chargers will change that. The Chargers have seen three straight games finish with 47 or more points. Two of those finished above the 50 mark. Their last three home games had combined scores of 47, 51 and 89. It should also be mentioned that the Chargers are off their fourth loss of the season. The OVER is 2-1 after their previous three losses but all three of those games finished with greater than 50 points. With both defenses missing some key players, look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-21-21 | Colts v. Bills UNDER 50 | 41-15 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Indianapolis UNDER the total. Over its last three games, Buffalo has allowed 17, 9 and 11 points. Not surprisingly, the Bills defense ranks #1 in the NFL in a number of categories. They're #1 in terms of ppg allowed. They give up 15 per game. The Bills are also #1 in terms of yards allowed per game and yards allowed per play. The Colts allowed 17 points last game and they also allowed 18 in their last road game. The last meeting snuck over the total by a half point, thanks to a 24-point 4th quarter. However, the previous four meetings all finished below the number with combined scores of 42, 20, 41 and 33. I feel that the number is generously high and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii OVER 54 | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 15 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on CSU/Hawaii OVER the total. These teams have a history of playing high-scoring games. Both teams will see this as a winnable game and a chance for their offense to "get healthy. I expect the high-scoring trend to continue this evening. Five meetings since 2012 have had O/U lines of 52, 58, 57.5, 64.5 and 58. None of them proved high enough. The games had final combined scores of 69, 63, 71, 72 and 78. The most recent was the 78 point game and the most recent here at Hawaii was the 72 game. The Rams have seen each of their last two games finish above the total. Including those results, the OVER is now 4-0 their last four in November. While the Warriors last two games finished below the total, their previous two both finished in the 80s. Neither defense is playing well. The Warriors gave up 465 yards last game The Rams defense has given up 986 total yards its last two games. With both teams essentially playing only for pride, there's no need to "play it safe." Expect plenty of offensive fireworks. |
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11-20-21 | Florida State v. Boston College OVER 53.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 36 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU/BC OVER the total. These teams had an O/U line of 64.5 when they last met. That wasn't enough as they combined for 69 points. Saturday's O/U is considerably lower. I believe it'll prove to be too low. The Boston College offense came to life in a big way last week. The Eagles combined with Georgia Tech for 71 points, scoring 41 themselves. The Seminoles, meanwhile, combined with Miami for 59 points. Off that 31-28 win, they've now allowed a minimum of 28 points in three straight games. Note that the Noles have seen the OVER go 6-1 the last seven times that they were off a victory. Yet, its the Eagles which are small favorites. That's noteworthy as the OVER is 11-2 the last 13 times that BC was listed as a home favorite. Look for both teams to have success moving the ball, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
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11-18-21 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 48 | 25-0 | Win | 100 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NE/Atlanta UNDER the total. These obviously aren't the same teams which faced each other in the Super Bowl a few years back. You probably remember that one. The Falcons had a seemingly insurmountable (28-3) lead only to see Brady and the Patriots come all the way back to win. That's all ancient history though. In my opinion, tonight's O/U line is generously high. The Patriots have been playing very stingy defense of late. They allowed seven points last game and six the previous week. Off those games, the NE defense will be licking its chops to face a depleted Atlanta offense which managed only three points last week. I do expect the Falcons defense to show some pride and bounce back with a better effort though. The Pats are going to run the ball, a lot. That'll help to chew up the clock. The UNDER is 12-2 the last 14, when the Pats played a road game against a team with a losing home record. These teams have met once since the SB and that meeting finished with 30 points. Expect another low-scoring affair, the UNDER improving to 6-0 Atlanta's last six Thursday games. |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/SF UNDER the total. This is a fairly high total. It's nearly as high as last night's O/U line between the Chiefs and the Raiders. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. I'll make the comparison to the SNF again. The Chiefs and Raiders had seen their two 2020 games produce 66 and 72 points. Two very high-scoring games. On the other hand, the Rams and 49'ers saw their two 2020 games produce 43 and 40 points. The Rams managed only 16 points in losing their last game. Prior to giving up 28 in that game, they'd allowed 22 or fewer points in four straight games, an average of just 17. As for the 28 points allowed against the Titans, a closer look reveals that LA actually held the Titans to a mere 194 total yards, 125 through the air and 69 on the ground. Stafford threw two INTs, one which was taken back for a TD. In other words, the defense still played well. The 49'ers, meanwhile, have scored 21 or fewer points in four of their last five. In their last two home games, they managed 17 and 18 points. I see them having trouble scoring again tonight. The UNDER is 8-1 the past nine times that the Rams allowed less than 250 yards in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 56 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LV OVER the total. With the Raiders off a low-scoring game and the Chiefs off a few low-scoring games, we're working with a relatively low O/U number on Sunday night. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that the last meeting between these teams had an O/U line of 56.5. Yet, that wasn't nearly enough. The teams combined for 66. The previous meeting was even higher-scoring. The O/U line was 54.5 and the teams combined for 72. The Chiefs are small favorites. That's noteworthy as the OVER is 10-0 the last 10 times that the Raiders were home underdogs. The only time that the Raiders were home underdogs this season, they combined with the Raiders for 60 points. Expect the offenses to come back to life and another high-scoring affair. |
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11-14-21 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 47.5 | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 35 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Buffalo/NY UNDER the total. The Jets have been on an 'over' streak. Those results have helped to provide us with a relatively high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Bills have one of the very best defenses in football. The best, in fact. They allow fewer points and fewer yards than any team in the league. They've allowed just 20 combined points the last two games. The offense doesn't always click though, as they scored only six points last game. The Jets know all about that. Even with some better numbers lately, they still average just 18 ppg, which ranks 27th in the league. The last four meetings all finished with 44 or fewer points. Scores were 18-10, 27-17, 13-6 and 17-16. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair, the UNDER improving to 5-0 the last five times that the Bills faced a team with a losing record. |
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss OVER 55.5 | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 46 m | Show |
I'm playing on Texas A&M and Ole Miss OVER the total. Six of the last seven meetings between these teams had O/U lines of 62 or greater. A look at this season's Ole Miss games shows that the lowest O/U line was 66.5. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number Saturday and I feel that it'll prove to be too low. While the Aggies got into a low scoring game vs. Auburn last week, they'd scored 44, 35 and 41 points in their previous three. These teams combined for 745 yards of offense last season after compiling 944 the previous year. The previous year they had 782 yards and the year before that they combined for 832. Expect both teams to have success moving the football, the final combined score proving higher than many will be expecting. |
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11-13-21 | Boston College v. Georgia Tech OVER 53 | 41-30 | Win | 100 | 97 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on BC/GT OVER the total. Last year's game had an O/U line of 57.5 and finished with 75 points. The Eagles scored of those. I expect them to have another big day on offense. Boston College has faced some fairly stingy defenses recently. This isn't one of them. In their last five games, the Jackets have allowed 52, 27, 48, 26 and 33 points. Georgia Tech can score though. The Jackets have scored 30 or more in three of their past four and they've scored 40 or more three times this season. The OVER is 4-0 the past four times that GT played in November and I expect those stats to improve Saturday afternoon. |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins UNDER 46.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Miami UNDER the total. A look at the last 10 meetings between these teams shows that this O/U line is higher than the O/U lines for any of those games. I believe it'll prove to be too high. The Ravens run the ball 32.4 times per game. That's more than any team in the league. All those running plays tend to keep the clock moving. The Ravens last four games have been at home. They're finally back on the road for this one though. Their last two road games had scores of 23-7 and 19-17. Overall, their road games are averaging 42 points. That's significantly less than their home games. Miami, meanwhile, has seen its home games average 40.8 points on the season. The Dolphins last two games had scores of 17-9 and 26-11. While the Ravens are off a high-scoring game, the UNDER is 4-1 the past five times that they were off a game where they scored more than 30 points. Look for those stats to improve Thursday night. |
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11-08-21 | Bears v. Steelers OVER 38.5 | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
I'm playing on Chicago/Pittsburgh OVER the total. This O/U line is lower than any of the O/U lines on the entire Sunday board. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. We tend to think of the Bears as a strong defensive team. However, the defense has hardly been dominant of late. Chicago allowed 33 points last game and 38 points the previous week. After allowing 408 yards two weeks ago, last week, the Bears allowed a total of 467 yards. While the Steelers are off a low-scoring game at Cleveland, their last two home games finished with combined scores of 43 and 46. While b2b Chicago games have finished above the 40 point mark, the Steelers have seen three of four finish with more than 40. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score finishing above the low number. |
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11-06-21 | Clemson v. Louisville OVER 46 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Clemson/Louisville OVER the total. This is a relatively low O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. I felt fortunate to cash my 'over' ticket in last week's Clemson game. If you saw the final play, you'll know what I'm talking about. Still, Clemson was moving the ball. I expect the Tigers to have success against a Cardinal defense which gave up 28 points last week and which has allowed 34 or more points four times. Consider that the last four meetings between these teams all had O/U lines in the 60s. Now, we've got one in the 40s. Those four games had combined scores of 78, 68, 93 and 55. All four of those games would have finished above this evening's low number. The OVER is also a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Cardinals were listed as home underdogs. Expect those stats to improve. |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College OVER 46.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on VTech/BC OVER the total. These teams combined for 54 points last year. The O/U line was 62. In 2018 and 2019, the games between these teams also both produced greater than 50 points. They had combined scores of 52 at VT and 63, here at Boston College. Those O/U lines were 56.5 and 57. Tonight, we're working with a considerably lower O/U number. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. Admittedly, the Boston College offense has struggled. That's a big reason why we've got the low O/U number. There's more talent here than those recent numbers suggest. They struggled against NC State in their last game here but in their previous home game, the Eagles dropped 41 points on Missouri. That was one of three games this season where BC has scored more than 40. An ESPN home game provides the opportunity for the offense to show the world that it can still move the ball. I expect the players to seize that opportunity. Remember, VT has allowed 28 or more points in three of its past four, including 41 to Syracuse. Stopping the Hokies may be a different matter though. The Eagles have allowed 28 or more points four different times this season. Look for both teams to have some success on offense and for the OVER to improve to 6-1 the past seven times that The Hokies were road favorites. |
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11-04-21 | Jets v. Colts UNDER 46.5 | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 20 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Jets/Colts UNDER the total. Both these teams are off high-scoring games. Those results have helped to provide us with a generously high O/U line. I feel that it'll prove to too high. The Colts got into a shootout with the Titans. That's been happening with a lot of recent Tennessee games though. The Colts held their previous two opponents to 18 and 3 points. They have the 12th most rushing attempts per game in the league and they'd love to pound away on the ground in this one. That'll help to chew up the clock. While I was thrilled that they came through for me last week, the Jets are still only averaging 16.3 ppg. That number dips to 11.8 ppg when they're on the road. They managed only seven points in a game here last season. With the Jets winless on the road, note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Colts hosted a team with a losing road record. Look for those stats to improve and for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-03-21 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan UNDER 67 | Top | 42-30 | Loss | -121 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
I'm playing on CMU/WMU UNDER the total. We were reminded last night that these MAC games can get high-scoring. We're working with a very high O/U line for this one though. In fact, I looked at the O/U lines from that past 10 meetings between these teams and this one is considerably higher than any of them. I feel that it'll prove to be too high. The Broncos managed just 15 points against Toledo last time out, a 34-15 loss. That same Toledo team, which limited WMU, just gave up 52 points (to EMU) last night. The Broncos have now scored 28 or less in seven of their eight games, 24 or less in six of those. The Chippewas are off a very high-scoring game last time out. However, their previous three games had all finished below the total and their previous four games all finished with 58 or fewer combined points. Note that the UNDER is 4-0 the past four times that they threw for 280 or more yards in their previous game. While last year's game at Central Michigan was high-scoring, the last one here at Western Michigan was not. Including that 45-point game, four of the past five meetings finished with fewer than 64 combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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11-02-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Toledo OVER 52 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 49 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Eastern Michigan/Toledo OVER the total. These teams combined for 73 points last season. The previous year, they combined for 71 points. (Nine came in OT.) I'm expecting another relatively high-scoring affair Tuesday. Toledo has been on an 'under' streak. However, the Rockets scored 34 against an arguably much stingier team (Eastern Michigan allows 393.3 ypg, Western Michigan allows 320.8 ypg) last game and they should put up at least that many once again. They may need more than that though, as the Eagles just scored 55 (themselves) in their last game. That 55-24 road win was the heels of a 38-31 loss. Note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that the Eagles were off a pointspread victory. The OVER is also 6-1 the last seven meetings in Toledo. Look for this one to prove higher-scoing than many will be expecting. |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson OVER 46 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on FSU/Clemson OVER the total. The Tigers have been involved in some low-scoring games of late. That's helped in keeping this O/U line relatively low. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles scored 59 points (themselves) last week. They've scored 33 or more in each of their past three games. Yet, it's Clemson which is favored by more than a TD. If the Noles are scoring, that means that the Tigers are going to need to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete and win. Considering that the Noles have allowed 20 or more in six of seven games and 30 or more in four of those, I feel that the Tigers absolutely will be able to "put up a big number." The Tigers scored 45 and 59 points (themselves) the last two meetings in the series. With the Noles off a 59-point effort, note that the OVER is 4-0 the past four times that FSU had scored 40 or more points in its previous game. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers UNDER 45 | 30-18 | Loss | -109 | 143 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Indianapolis/SF UNDER the total. I won with the 'under' in last week's Indianapolis/Houston game. The Colts allowed just three points. While they did score 31 of their own, a closer looks shows at the numbers suggests they were fortunate to get that many. They had just 15 first downs for the game. The 49er's didn't play last week. However, I also won with the 'under' in their last game, a close loss against Arizona. While they scored only 10 themselves, the 49'ers limited the high-flying Cardinals to only 17 points. Considering that Arizona scored more than 30 in every other game, that's pretty good. Both teams rank in the top half of the league, in terms of rushing attempts per game. Expect a fairly heavy dose of the run from both in this one. That'll help keep the clock moving. Combine that with stingy defense and we can expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-23-21 | South Carolina v. Texas A&M OVER 45 | Top | 14-44 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on South Carolina/Texas A&M OVER the total. This is a low O/U line. I believe it'll prove to be too low. After a slow start, the Aggies have hit their stride on offense. They have the potential to go over this total by themselves. (They scored 48 themselves at South Carolina LY.) In their last two games, they scored 41 (against Alabama!) and 35 at Missouri. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks have given up 40 and 45 in their last two road games. While the Aggies will put up a big number, the Gamecocks should also contribute. They've hit double-digits in every game, including 13 at Georgia and they're averaging 21.9 ppg on the season. Last season's game had an O/U line of 58. We're working with a considerably lower O/U number here which is providing excellent value. With the OVER a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Gamecocks were road underdogs, all six of those games producing a minimum of 53 points, look for this one to prove higher scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-23-21 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 40.5 | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Wisconsin/Purdue OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number. In fact, I looked back at the last 18 meetings between these teams, dating back to 1998. This is the by far the lowest O/U number of any of them. While I respect the defenses, I believe it'll prove to be too low. The last time (Nov. 2019) that these teams met, they combined for 69 points. The last time they met here (Nov 2018) at Purdue, they combined for 91 points. Needless to say, both games finished above the total. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns UNDER 41 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Denver/Clev. UNDER the total. You probably have heard that Mayfield is out and Keenum is in. While the veteran backup is capable, he hasn't started in some time and some of his weapons are banged-up. The Browns scored only 14 points last week; the second time in three games that they managed just 14 points. Denver has its own issues though. The Broncos have averaged less than 17 ppg their past three games. On the other side of the ball, at 18.3, Denver ranks #4 in terms of points allowed per game. The Broncos also rank #4 in terms of yards allowed per game. Last week notwithstanding, this is still a stingy Cleveland defense. In fact, the Browns are still #2 in the entire league, in terms of yards allowed per game. Only Buffalo allows less. While the Broncos gave up 34 points last week, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that they allowed 30 or more, in their previous game. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/Tennessee UNDER the total. Both these teams like to run the ball a lot. In fact, they both rank in the top 5, in terms of rushing attempts per game. (The Titans are #2 and the Bills are #4.) We can expect a heavy dose of the run on Monday night, which will help to keep the clock moving. The Bills have indeed been very good on offense. However, they've also been excellent on defense. They went on the road and held the Chiefs to 20 points last game. Before that, they blanked Houston, which was their second shutout in three games. Their 12.8 ppg allowed is #1 in the NFL. Likewise, their 251.8 yards allowed per game ranks #1. They allow just 4.5 yards per play, also #1. As for the Titans, they allowed just 19 points last game and only 16 in their last home game. While last year's game was high-scoring, the previous three meetings all finished with 27 or fewer combined points. With frequent running plays helping to keep the clock moving, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers OVER 42 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Seattle OVER the total. With Wilson out, we're working with a very low O/U number. I believe it'll prove to be too low. Despite facing a Denver defense which came in playing well, Rothlisberger got going a bit last week. He'd finish with 253 passing yards (2 TD's, 0 INT's) and a season-high 120.9 passer rating. Now, he faces a Seattle defense which allows 10 extra points a game than does Denver. (Broncos allow 15.2 ppg. Seahawks allow 25.2 ppg.) In fact, while the Broncos rank #3 in terms of total yards allowed per game, the Hawks rank last in the entire NFL in that category. They're giving up a whopping 450.8 ypg. Note that Big Ben has 30 TDs (12 INTS) in 12 SNF starts. Prior to his interception at the end, Geno Smith actually looked really good for Seattle. He's a veteran who knows that this is his chance to show people that he's better than they realize. Pete Carroll won't stop being aggressive. The last meeting between these teams had 54 points. The last one here in Seattle had 69. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-17-21 | Texans v. Colts UNDER 43.5 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 114 h 10 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Indianapolis UNDER the total. I won with the Colts last week. Their defense was great to begin the game but Jackson and the Ravens ultimately got rolling. They're facing a far less dangerous offense this week though and they very likely aren't going to need to score as many in order to win. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams in this one and that'll help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top 15 in terms of rushing attempts per game.) The Colts rank just 21st in the league in terms of ppg. The Texans are worse. They rank 29th, with 17.8 ppg. They scored 0 points in their last road game. Five of the past six meetings have fallen below the total. Look for this one to do the same. |
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10-16-21 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 64 | Top | 31-64 | Win | 100 | 117 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Kent State / Western Michigan to finish OVER the total. The Kent State offense put up 48 points last game but the defense gave up 38. The Golden Flashes also allowed 37 points the last time that they were on the road. Now, they face a Western Michigan team which also has plenty of offensive firepower. The Broncos gave up 45 points last time out and more than 300 passing yards. The last meeting between these teams produced 68 points. That game finished 'over' the total and so did their previous meeting. I like what I saw (633 total yards, more than 400 through the air!) from the Kent State offense last week but the defense gave up 549 yards. The Broncos are a tougher opponent and they're going to be in an angry mood. I expect both teams to put up a big number as this one turns into a track meet. |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles UNDER 53 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 74 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tampa/Philadelphia UNDER the total. The Eagles are off a strong defensive game. They held Carolina to 267 yards and 18 points. Their only previous home game vs. an NFC opponent (SF) finished with a score of 17-11. Going back further finds the UNDER at a profitable 10-2 the past 12 times that the Eagles hosted an NFC team. Eleven of those 12 games finished with 45 or fewer combined points. While the Bucs offense is obviously explosive, Brady has a banged-up thumb and Gronk remains out. Brady will play but potentially could be slightly less effective than normal. Note that the Bucs have scored only 19 and 24 points in their two road games. Their home scores have been much higher. Their last road game had a final score of 19-17. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 56.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC UNDER for the first half. Naturally, I respect both offenses. However, I feel the same way about the defenses. The Bills defense is playing very well right now. Last week, they shut down Houston. That's the second time in three games that they shut out an opponent. Their 11 ppg allowed is #1 in the entire NFL. Also, their 216.8 ypg allowed is #1, by a lot. The Bills held the Chiefs scoreless in the first quarter of the playoff games before Mahomes and co. got going. The regular season meeting was also fairly low-scoring out of the gate. They had only 23 at halftime. The Chiefs last home game finished with 54 points. However, they had 0 after the first quarter and just 17 at halftime. Look for this one to also get off to a lower-scoring start than many will be expecting. |
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10-10-21 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on SF/Arizona UNDER the total. Though they will claim otherwise, with Trey Lance making his first start, the 49'ers are likely going to be slightly more conservative than normal. Not having their normally reliable tight-end (Kittle) is a blow. He already had 19 receptions this season and would have been a nice option for the rookie to have. With the offense likely less than 100%, the SF defense knows it needs to elevate its level of play. Yes, the Arizona offense is explosive. Remember, the 49'ers held the Eagles to 11 points the last time that they were on the road. While they lost last week, they actually held the Seahawks to 234 total yards. They currently rank in the Top 10 in the league, in terms of yards allowed per game. While the Arizona offense gets most of the headlines, the Cards rank in the top 10 in terms of points allowed per game. They've held three of four opponents to 20 or fewer points. Last year's two games had scores of 24-20 at SF and 20-12, here in the desert. Including that result, four of SF's last five visits here have fallen below the number. I'm expecting more of the same this afternoon. |
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10-10-21 | Broncos v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Denver OVER the total. This is the lowest total on the board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Steelers have given up at least 24 points in each of their past three games. The Broncos gave up 23 last game. While the offense struggled last week, in large part to Bridgewater going down, in their first three games, the Broncos had scored 23 or more each game. As of this writing, Bridgewater appears on track to start. Six of the past eight meetings have finished above the total. Note that ALL eight produced a minimum of 39 combined points. Last year's game had an O/U line of 41 and finished with 47 points. I say this one also proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-10-21 | Jets v. Falcons UNDER 46 | 20-27 | Loss | -104 | 116 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Atlanta/NY UNDER the total. The Jets' offense finally got going a little last week. However, the Jets still rank last in the NFL with 11.8 points scored per game. The defense has quietly been playing pretty well all season though. NY ranks a respectable 13th in the league in terms of points allowed per game and in terms of yards allowed per game. In terms of yards allowed per play, the Jets defense ranks #7 in the league. Admittedly, the Falcons D hasn't been as good. That said, they allowed just 14 points the last time that they played a game away from Atlanta. While the last game ended up high-scoring, the Falcon offense has been held to 17 points and six points, in two of their games. Note that the UNDER is 5-1 the past six times that the Falcons had thrown for 250 or more passing yards in their previous game. This line initially opened a little lower before climbing higher. In a game where I'm expecting points to be relatively hard to come by, that's providing us with excellent value. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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10-09-21 | Alabama v. Texas A&M UNDER 51 | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on Alabama/Texas A&M UNDER the total. These are two of the best defenses in the country. The Tide have been putting up big offensive numbers, week after week. This is still a relatively young offense though and now they're on the road against arguably the most talented defense which they've faced. Of course, the Tide are still going to score. However, I don't expect them to score as easily, or as many points, as they've been doing. The Alabama defense is considerably more experienced than its offense and has already held three teams to 14 or fewer points. In other words, the Aggies, who have already scored 10 points twice themselves, figure to have a difficult time scoring. Winning this game won't be easy for the Aggies, obviously. That said, they've got a talented defensive front and and offensive line that appears to be coming around. They're going to be doing everything they can to chew up the clock and keep the Tide offense off the field. In the end, I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the UNDER improving to 5-1 the Aggies' last six games. |
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10-07-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on the Rams/Seahawks UNDER for the first half. The Seahawks are off a victory over the 49'ers. A look at the stats shows that they were a little fortunate, as they were outgained by a considerable (457-234) margin in total yards. SF threw for more than 300 yards. That sounds bad but the UNDER is actually now a perfect 6-0 the past six times that Seattle allowed more than 250 passing yards in its previous game. That game against SF had only 14 first half points. The teams combined for 35 in the second half. All four of the Rams' games have finished above the total. However, a closer look reveals that three of those four games had 21 or fewer points at halftime. Prior to last week's loss, the Rams had been stingy defensively. Even with that game finishing above the total, the UNDER is 7-1 their last eight games played in October. When these teams met here in the "regular season" last year, the game had only 12 points at halftime. It was a 6-6 tie, all the scoring coming on four long field goals. Look for this one to also start a little slower than many will be expecting. |
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 51.5 | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Raiders/Chargers OVER the total. I wasn't surprised that last night's game was low-scoring. However, I'm expecting a high-scoring affair this evening. When I'm playing an 'under,' I typically want games which will feature a lot of running. Naturally, the opposite is true when playing an 'over.' More passing plays are preferred. In this case, both teams rank in the top 5 in the NFL, in terms of passing attempts per game. LV is throwing the ball 45.3 times per game, second most in the league. LA isn't far behind, at 42 attempts per game. They rank #1 and #4 respectively, in terms of passing yards per game. The Raiders have seen two of their three games produce 59 or more points. They've personally gone over the 30 mark in two of three. Despite facing some defenses which have been known to be stingy, no team has been able to hold them to less than 26 points. Admittedly, the Chargers have been playing solid defense. Still, their games have gotten progressively higher-scoring with the most recent producing 54 points. It should also be mentioned that they're dealing with several injuries on defense. Dating back to last season, the Raiders have seen seven of their last eight finish above the number. Both 2020 meetings produced 57 combined points. Both teams should be able to move the ball and I'm expecting another high-scoring affair. |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots UNDER 49.5 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on TB/NE UNDER the total for the 1st half. What a matchup. Brady returns, as a world champion, to Foxboro. Obviously, he's going to want to perform his best. Obviously, Belichick the Patriots are going to do everything they can to try and stop him from doing so. Rather than worry about who will have the last laugh, I'd rather focus on the first half. The Bucs have played some high-scoring games. But that's been a lot to do with the teams that they've played. The Patriots have been playing much lower scoring games than any of the teams which Tampa has faced. New England's first three games had combined final scores of 33, 31 and 41. Halftime scores were 17, 16 and 20. Brady still has weapons. However, not having Gronkowski is a big deal. He's practically unstoppable at times and you know he likely would have had an impact in this game, if given the chance. While their defense remains stingy, the Patriots offense has seen better days. They've scored less than 17 in two of their three games. Look for points to be harder to come by, at least initially, than many will be expecting. |
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10-03-21 | Steelers v. Packers OVER 45.5 | 17-27 | Loss | -103 | 51 h 40 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/PITT OVER the total. The Steelers do have some issues on the offensive line. However, they've still got a veteran QB who has a number of dangerous weapons at his disposal. Rothlisberger and co. know they'll need to improve offensively if they want to keep up with Rodgers and the Packers. Green Bay ranks 27th in the league in terms of ppg (27.7) allowed. On offense, the Pack have scored 30 and 35 points in their last two games. The Pack have now seen six of their last seven, since last year, finish above the number. Off a 14-point loss to the Bengals, note that the OVER is 4-1 the past five times that the Steelers were off a double-digit home loss. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
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10-02-21 | New Mexico State v. San Jose State OVER 51.5 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ State and New Mexico State to finish OVER the total. I successfully played on the Spartans to finish 'over' the total in their very first game of the season, back in late August. They scored 45 points for me that day, nearly going over the total themselves. Since that time, however, they've seen their next three games all stay below the number. Those results have absolutely worked in our favor, as they've kept this O/U number lower than it easily could have been. Note that all three of those were on the road. Now, they take a big step down in class, while also returning home. I expect them to put up a very big number. Indeed, the Aggies are not a good defensive team. Since giving up 30 and 28 points in their first two games, they've gotten worse. Over their last three games, they've given up 34, 35 and 41 points. The Aggies did manage to score 25, 43 and 21 themselves in those games. All three finished with greater than 58 points. The teams have met three times since 2010. All three of those games finished above the number. Look for this one to do the same. |
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10-02-21 | Syracuse v. Florida State OVER 51 | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FSU/Syracuse OVER the total. When these teams met last (2019) the O/U line was 60. The previous year, their game had an O/U line of 69. We're working with a much lower number this week. I feel that it'll prove to be too low. The Seminoles had no problem moving the ball last week, as they racked up more than 450 yards against Louisville. Really, they could have easily scored more than they did. The problem was that they allowed more than 30 points for the second straight week. Dating back to last year, the Noles have allowed seven of their past eight opponents to score more than 30 points. The only one that didn't was 1-AA Jacksonville State. Syracuse is off a relatively low-scoring (45 points) game vs. Liberty. However, that one could have easily been higher-scoring; the points dried up late. In their previous game, the Orange scored 62 points, all by themselves. Six of the past seven meetings between these teams have produced more than 50 combined points. Expect this one to do the same. |
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10-01-21 | Iowa v. Maryland OVER 45.5 | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 104 h 12 m | Show |
I'm playing on Iowa/Maryland OVER the total. While both teams have played well defensively, this is a low O/U number. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Both offenses have plenty of weapons; each offense brought back a lot from last year. The Hawkeyes have scored 34, 27, 30 and 24 points. That's been enough as their opponents haven't been able to keep up. Keep in mind that they were favored by more than three TD's in each of their last two games though. Now, they face the most capable team they've faced since upsetting instate rival Iowa State. I believe that the Terps will put up a big enough number that the Hawkeyes are going to need to score more than they've had to. Keep in mind that Maryland has scored 30, 62 and 67 in its three home games. When Iowa visited here in 2014, the O/U line was 45.5. The teams combined for 69 points. Look for history to repeat itself, as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 45.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
I'm playing on Jacksonville/Cincinnati OVER the total. Both teams have seen two of their three games fall below the number. Those results have worked in a our favor, as the line has come down a bit from its opener and could easily be higher. A closer look shows that both Jacksonville's loan road game AND Cincinnati's lone home game were high-scoring. The Bengals only game here was against Minnesota. The O/U line was 47 and the teams combined for 51. Meanwhile, the Jags' lone road game (at Houston) had an O/U line of 45.5 and finished with 58 points. Going back further finds that the OVER is 6-0 (or 5-0-1 *depending whether using 45.5 or 46 for 12/16/18 O/U line) the past six times that the Bengals were favored. All six games produced greater than 45 points. In fact, eight of the last nine games that the Bengals have played as favorite have finished with more than 45 points. The other had 44. That includes a 58-point affair when these teams hooked up last October, Burrow throwing for 300 yards. Burrow has more weapons and more confidence now. In only the second time in NFL history that a rookie QB, who was taken #1, faces a QB who was #1 overall the previous year, look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
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09-27-21 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 51.5 | 21-41 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Dallas UNDER the total for the first half. Both teams come in with high hopes. Both are banged-up both each has their eyes on first place in the division. With NY and Washington a combined 1-5, that's where the winner of tonight's game will be. Last night's game saw 24 points scored in the first half and 34 in the second half. I expect this divisional battle to also get off to a relatively cautious start. The Cowboys are off a 20-17 game against the Chargers. The Eagles are off a 17-11 game against the 49'ers. Note that they're running the ball 30 times a game, thus far. That helps keep the clock moving. While the most recent was higher-scoring, two of the past three meetings between these teams had less than 17 points at halftime. Look for them to go into the locker-room with less than many will be expecting. |
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09-26-21 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total for the first half. The 49'ers check in off a 19-11 win over the Eagles. They're going to try and establish the run early. Their 33 rushing attempts per game is second in the entire NFL. Those frequent running plays will help keep the clock moving. The Packers bounced back from their Week 1 beating (they only scored three points for the entire game) to beat up on Detroit last game. The defense looked a bit shaky out of the gate but got going as the game progressed. That should provide some early positive momentum for the defense. Like their hosts, the Pack will want to try and establish the run early. Two of the three meetings since 2019 have seen 24 or fewer points scored by halftime. Look for this one to do the same. |
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09-26-21 | Ravens v. Lions UNDER 50 | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 124 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Detroit UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 37.5 rushing attempts per game, the Ravens run the ball the most in the NFL, so far this season. Indeed, the Ravens are averaging 220 yards per game on the ground and the #2 team is averaging 162. The Ravens' defensive stats are a bit misleading due to the fact that they just got into a shootout against the Chiefs and an OT game against the Raiders. Needless to say, the Lions' offense isn't as dangerous as the Chiefs offense, or the Raiders offense. While Goff and co. admittedly started pretty well against Green Bay, they quickly came back to earth in the second half. The Lions would finish with 17 points for the game. Scoring figures to be tough for them again. That said, they're going to want to establish the run themselves, to try and keep Jackson on the sidelines. All things considered, this number is generously high. Look for the clock to keep moving and for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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09-25-21 | Colorado v. Arizona State OVER 44.5 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 101 h 30 m | Show |
I'm playing on Colorado/ASU OVER the total. This is a very low total. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Keep in mind that last year's game had an O/U line of 49 and finished with 65 combined points. In fact, each of the last 10 meetings between these teams produced a minimum of 47 combined points. None of those games had an O/U line this low. That leads one to question WHY this O/U line is so low. That's, in large part, due to Colorado's offensive futility. While its true that the Buffaloes have indeed struggled to score, that's not going to continue. It helps that the Colorado offense won't have to contend with ASU's defensive end Travis Moore, who got hurt in the BYU game. That's the second defensive lineman that the Sun Devils have lost. ASU's offense has no problems though. Already averaging 31.7 ppg, the Sun Devils now get back running back Chip Trayanum (as well as return specialist D.J. Taylor.) Four of the last five meetings here have finished above the number. Additionally, the OVER is 5-1 the last six times that the Buffaloes were listed as underdogs. Expect those stats to improve Saturday night. |
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09-25-21 | Miami-OH v. Army UNDER 49 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Army/Miami Ohio UNDER the total. The Knights have seen all three of their games finish above the total thus far. I expect that to change Saturday afternoon. Miami allowed just seven points last game, a 42-7 win. As per usual, Army is going to run the ball. The Redhawks won't be able to stop the Knights ground game but their veteran linebackers will make things more difficult than Army's first few opponents. The Redhawks, who know full well what to expect Army to bring to the table, are among the leaders in their conference at making tackles for losses. Note that the UNDER is 8-1 the past nine times that the Redhawks were off a SU victory. I see those stats improving here. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44 | Top | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 60 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on Houston/Carolina UNDER the total. When choosing an 'under,' I typically want teams which are going to run the ball regularly. After all, that helps keep the clock moving. In this game, I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams. Averaging 34.5 rushing attempts per game, the Texans run the ball the second most in the NFL, so far this season. (Only Baltimore has more rushing attempts per game.) The Panthers also like to pound the ball on the ground. With 30 rushing attempts per game, they're currently tied with a few other teams for the 5th most carries per game. That said, Carolina has a 2-0 record, thanks to its defense. Through two games, the Panthers are allowing just 10.5 points per game. That's the best defense, in terms of points allowed per game, in the entire league. Their 190 yards allowed per game also ranks #1 and their 4.1 yards per play ranks #2, second to only Buffalo. That's after the Panthers had just faced the Saints, too. (Remember, the Saints dropped 38 on Green Bay in Week 1.) On the other side of the ball, averaging 22.5 ppg, the Panthers' offense ranks only #19 in terms of points per game. These teams combined for 26 points (16-10 final) when they met in 2019. All three meetings over the past 10 years have produced 41 or fewer points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State UNDER 59.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
I'm playing on Marshall/Appalachian State UNDER the total. These teams combined for only 24 points when they faced each other last season, a 17-7 win for Marshall. The Thundering Herd check into this year's rematch off a high-scoring game against East Carolina. However, that's not typical for them. In their first two games, the Herd allowed just seven and 10 points. App. State is also a stingy team. Despite playing at Miami (and also having faced East Carolina) the Mountaineers have allowed just 19, 25 and 10 points. Off a 44-10 blowout victory, note that the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 the past five times that the Mountaineers were off a win of 20 or more points. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5 | Top | 35-36 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Baltimore UNDER the total. When most think Chiefs/Ravens, they think of Mahomes and Jackson going h2h, each putting up a ton of points. Some forget that these are two capable defenses and that both teams are going to do their best to control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field. Prior to their Week 1 (OT) game against the Raiders, the Ravens had seen their previous four games finished with 40, 41, 33 and 20 combined points. In their last three home games, they allowed 13, 14 and 17 points. Baltimore ran the ball 34 times for 189 yards against Oakland. The Ravens will try and employ a similar strategy to help keep Mahomes off the field. As you know, running the ball tends to keep the clock moving. Speaking of running the ball, the UNDER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that the Ravens rushed for 150 or more yards in their previous game. Expect those stats to improve tonight. |
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09-19-21 | Texans v. Browns UNDER 48 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Clev/Houston UNDER the total. These teams both started the season with an 'over.' Those results have helped to keep this week's O/U line generously high. I believe it'll prove to be too high. While the Texans put up a big number against the Jags, scoring figures to be much harder to come by this week and going forward. The Texans want to run the ball but the Browns held the Chiefs to just 73 yards on the ground. These teams played last year. The O/U line was 46.5 and they combined for only 17 points. Including that result, the UNDER is 8-2 the past 10 meetings, 4-0 the past four here at Cleveland. All four games finished with 44 or fewer points and the last three had combined scores of 17, 30 and 22. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Vegas UNDER the total for the first half. The Ravens may be depleted at the running back position but that's not going to stop them from establishing the run early on. They'll be doing so against what should be an improved Oakland defense. The Raiders have a new defensive coordinator (Gus Bradley) and the addition of defensive-end Yannick Ngakoue, a former Raven, should help the pass rush. Bradley noted: "....it always starts with stopping the run. I don’t know a team like this to say, 'Hey, we’re going to stop the run. We are going to go out there and compete our tail off and there is a mindset that we know this team can do a lot of damage running the ball.' So, that’s the part that right now I like the way it’s going, but we'll see on Monday night. I got a good feeling about the group. They are working hard together. They understand what is asked of them." The UNDER is 6-1 the Ravens' last seven road games. Their most recent road game was tied 3-3 at halftime. The two before that both had 20 points at halftime. I look for this one to also start off lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
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09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions UNDER 46 | Top | 41-33 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
I'm playing on the Lions/49ers UNDER the total. The Lions and the fans are going to be fired up. That said, this isn't an easy matchup. I expect their new offense to struggle against a tough SF defense. Losing left-tackle Decker to injury doesn't help matters. Remember, the 49ers ranked #4 in the NFL last season, in terms of yards allowed per game. With the offense likely to have trouble moving the ball, that means that the Lions are going to need to play their very best on defense, if they want to compete. The Lions will plan on a fairly heavy dose of the run to try and keep the SF offense off the field and to try and slow down the SF pass rush. While the 49ers offense has some weapons, the team averaged just 23.5 ppg last year. That was only 21st in the league. They'll also be looking to run the ball with regularity. The 49'ers have been seeing their Week 1 games finish below the total in recent years. Look for the clock to keep moving and the final combined score to also prove lower than many will be expecting. |