Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-11-21 | Stanford v. USC OVER 53 | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
I'm playing on stanford/usc OVER the total. I played against the Cardinal last week. So, I was happy to see them score only seven points. That was a very early starting time though and I believe that worked against Stanford. Tonight, the Cardinal are back in the Pacific Time Zone and I'm expecting a much better offensive effort. Note that the OVER is 5-0 the past five times that the Cardinal had scored less than 20 points in their previous game. After scoring just 17 in its first game of 2019, the Cardinal played USC in their next game. That game had an O/U line of 44 and finished with 65. Next, after scoring six against Oregon, the Cardinal combined with OSU for 59. After a 16-point effort against UCLA, the Cardinal combined with Arizona for 72. A 13-point showing at Colorado was proceeded by a 71-point game at WSU. Finally, after a 20-pt offensive line vs Cal, the Cardinal combined with ND for 69. You get the idea. I'll also mention that the OVER is 8-1 the past nine times that USC had allowed less than 20, in its previous game. Expect those stats to improve this evening. |
|||||||
09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State UNDER 57 | 13-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Boise/Utep UNDER the total. While they came up short against UCF, the Broncos are tough on both sides of the ball. Stepping down in class, they're big favorites against UTEP for a reason. While the Broncos will score, I believe that they're going to emphasize shutting down the Miners and dominating defensively, more than running up the score offensively. UTEP has played well so far against inferior opponents. The Miners' running game has impressed and they've done a good job of getting pressure on opposing QBs. They'll be doing everything they can to run the ball in an effort to chew up the clock and keep the Boise offense on the sideline. With the Miners coming in undefeated, note that the UNDER is 7-1 the past eight times that Boise hosted a team with a winning road record. I say the UTEP offense struggles to score and this one proves lower-scoring overall than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-09-21 | Cowboys v. Bucs OVER 51 | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/TB OVER the total. I'm expecting to see plenty of points in this year's first game. Brady and the Bucs couldn't be stopped by the end of last season. They scored 30 or more points in each of their final seven games. In other words, the Cowboys know they're going to have to put up a big number of their own, if they want to compete. The Cowboys have their QB back and that makes them a far more dangerous offense. The Cowboys may not have to contend with Bucs starting saftey, Jordan Whitehead. He's been out with injury and still may not be ready in time for Thursday's game. Either way, I expect Dallas to have some success through the air. Prescott's receivers include Amari Cooper, who recently proclaimed himself to be the "best receiver in the NFL." In fact, it could be argued that the Cowboys' trio of Cooper, Gallup and Lamb is second (in the entire NFL) to only Tampa's trio of Evans, Godwin and Brown. The OVER is a perfect 4-0 the past four times that Dallas was an underdog. Those games had combined scores of 54, 74, 54 and 59. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State UNDER 56 | 41-38 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND/FSU UNDER the total. We've already seen some serious defensive battles. This one figures to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. The Irish allowed just 19.7 ppg last season. They'll be stingy again. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame returns only three offensive starters. Six players they are replacing were draft picks. Needless to say, there will be some adjustments that need to be made early in the season. The Seminoles have plenty of returning starters and should be improved on both sides of the ball. It's still going to be tough to consistently move the ball against the ND defense though. Last year's meeting did finish above the total. However, that wasn't in the first week of the season and the Irish had an offense which had returned its QB and every starter on its offensive line. This year, we're working with an even higher O/U number than last year, too. Both teams played a low-scoring game to start their season last year. ND beat Duke 27-13 while FSU lost 16-13 to Georgia Tech. More of the same this evening. |
|||||||
09-04-21 | West Virginia v. Maryland UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
I'm playing on WVU/Maryland UNDER the total. This O/U number has climbed from its opener. I believe that's helping to provide us with plenty of line value. The Mountaineers should put up quite a few points this year, as they've got plenty of weapons on offense. Their defense is also excellent though and will be tough to score against. Last year, WVU held opposing teams to 291.4 ypg, #4 in the country. With nine returning defensive starters, the Terps will also be stingy this season. The UNDER is 5-1 the last six times that the Terps were underdogs, 6-1 their last seven games overall. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in WVU's last six, as the road team. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 46 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MSU/Northwestern UNDER the total. We saw a high-scoring game in the Big Ten last night but I'm expecting a considerably lower-scoring affair. Recent meetings between these teams have finished above the total. They've also had lower O/U lines than this one though. While last year's game finished with 49 points, the Wildcats lost a lot on offense from last year. They'll be working with a QB and lost their top four receivers from last year. With the offensive line a strength, that should translate to a lot of running the ball in this one. Also, the Wildcats will rely on their defense. They allowed a mere 15.9 ppg from last year and will be stingy once again. While the Spartans are experienced on offense, keep in mind that they only averaged 18 ppg last year. The Spartan defense is also fairly experienced with five of their top six tacklers returning. Expect it to translate to a low-scoring opener. |
|||||||
09-02-21 | East Carolina v. Appalachian State UNDER 58 | Top | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 79 h 35 m | Show |
I'm playing on East Carolina / Appalachian State UNDER the total. While both offenses have some threats, these are two experienced defenses. ECU QB Ahlers is an exciting player but I expect him to have some trouble against a stingy Mountaineer defense. Inside linebackers Jackson and Cobb each had more than 90 tackles last season. Each added some sacks while Jackson also had a couple of picks. On offense, the Mountaineers will feature a heavy dose of the run, which will help to chew the clock up. Remember, Peoples just ran for over 300 yards in App. State's bowl win back in December. While the Pirates defense has admittedly struggled in recent seasons, Coach Houston has a defensive background and this is now his third year. That said, ECU should be better defensively this season. Note that the UNDER is 4-1 the past five Pirate September games. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
08-28-21 | Southern Utah v. San Jose State OVER 56 | Top | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Southern Utah and SJ State OVER the total. The Spartans were a profitable 'under' team last winter. Seven of their last eight games, including each of their last five, finished below the total. This is a new season though and a relatively low number. Importantly, a closer look shows that things weren't as bleak offensively as all those 'unders' makes it sound. Yes, the Spartans struggled to score in their New Year's Eve Bowl game against Ball State. They scored 30 or more in each of their final four regular season games though and 28 or more in each of their last six. This year, the offense brings back nine starters and will be playing behind a veteran offensive line. A game against Southern Utah provides an opportunity to immediately get healthy offensively and get rid of the bad taste from the Ball State loss. While SJ State will put up a big number, the Thunderbirds aren't without offensive talent. They'll contribute. QB Miller started all six games last season and threw for 1700+ yards and 15 TDs. They've got an NFL prospect (Braxton Jones) on the offensive line. Running back Duckett is solid and Oregon transfer JR Watts brings speed at the WR position and an opportunity to beat the Spartans deep. Look for the final score to prove higher than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 146 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/KC OVER the total. As of this writing, it remains unclear if Mahomes will be able to play or not. Obviously, he'll want to play. Its not up to him though. Obviously, if he's fit to go, the Chiefs want him in there, as do I. Here's what John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told ESPN: "We certainly expect Mahomes to play. We moved the line up to [Chiefs] -3 after reading some quotes from Andy Reid that sounded positive." I expect him to be in there, too. With or without Mahomes, however, the Chiefs are going to need to score a lot of points. On a windy day in Buffalo, the Bills won with defense last week. That game notwithstanding, they're here because of their offense though. The Bills average 30.3 ppg. Both teams rank in the top 5 in terms of points scored and total yards. The Chiefs are number in the latter category. In the event that Mahomes doesn't play, Reid is still going to be aggressive. Henne now has some playoff snaps under his belt and he certainly has some bigtime weapons at his disposal. Neither of these offenses will be stopped on Sunday. Expect a shootout. |
|||||||
01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 52 | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB/NO UNDER the total. Brady vs. Brees = Shootout. Right? Not tonight, in my opinion. Sure, everyone is excited about the showdown between the two future hall-of-famers. With all that excitement, we're working with a higher O/U line than we were for the two regular season meetings. With all due respect to Brees and Brady, I feel that the high number is providing excellent value. These defenses are both really good. Remember, these teams combined for just 41 points (38-3!) last meeting. Remember, the O/U line was 48 for the game here, at New Orleans. Remember, that the Saints defensive line has been all over Brady in the two reg. season meetings. Remember, five of Brady's 12 INT's as a Buccaneer, have come against this NO team. Tampa coach Arians acknowledged: "We've got to block them better." I expect that to lead to a slightly more conservative game plan than normal, as the Bucs try to protect their star QB. While Brees runs the show, the Saints also really rely on Kamara and the running game. Yet, the Bucs were the best team in the league at stopping the run. The Saints were fourth best in that area. The Bucs were also fourth best in terms of sacking the opposing QB. NO also ranked in the top 10 (8th) in that category. Both defenses were right near the top of the league, in terms of interceptions, too. In fact, the Saints tied for first with 18 while the Bucs had 15. Again, these defenses are better than some seem to realize. I look for the final score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 18-32 | Loss | -101 | 73 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/GB UNDER the total. Without a doubt, Rodgers has had a great year. However, he hasn't faced a defense this good. He can ask Russell Wilson if he wants confirmation. The Rams game against Seattle finished above the total. However, the Rams still arguably won that one with their defense and thats certainly why they were in the playoffs to begin with. Prior to the Seattle game, LA had seen its previous four games all stay below the number, allowing an average of less than 11 ppg. Donald has been held out of practice but has said that he'll be good to go. While Rodgers rightfully gets all the headlines, the Packers defense quietly closed the season in top form. The Pack held each of their final three opponents below the 17-point mark. Four of their past five opponents scored fewer than 17 points, the other managed 24. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-11-21 | Ohio State v. Alabama OVER 75.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 230 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Ohio State / Alabama OVER the total. I successfully played on the 'under' in Alabama's win over Notre Dame. That one stayed comfortably below the total which has helped to keep this O/U line a little lower than it easily could have been. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. When I played on the 'under' in Alabama's last game, it was largely because I respected the Notre Dame defense. While I wasn't sure that they would score that many points, I felt strongly that the Irish would do everything that they could to slow the game down and to try and keep the Alabama offense off the field. The Buckeyes, however, are an entirely different team. After putting up 49 points against Clemson, they believe that they've got the type of offense that can trade points with the SEC champs. Rather than try and slow the game down, they're going to try and outscore the Tide. If you watched their game against Clemson, you saw that they were very aggressive; there was no taking their foot off the gas. They kept throwing and attacking and looking to put up more points. Of course, they're going to need to score A LOT if they want to compete with an Alabama offense which arguably ranks among the best of all-time. Prior to the Irish game, Alabama had scored more than 40 in 10 straight games, including more than 50 in each of its previous three. Expect an extremely high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 54 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -114 | 139 h 8 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Tennessee OVER the total. For good reason, this is the highest O/U line of the weekend's playoff games. I believe that it could easily be even higher. Both these offenses are rolling. The Titans have scored 30 or more points in six of their past seven games. Last time out, they scored 41. Meanwhile, the Ravens scored 38 last time out. In their previous four games, they scored 27, 40, 47, and 34 points. The Ravens will be facing a porous Titan defense which has surrendered a whopping 78 points in its last two games. The Ravens' defenders are going to have their hands full, too. The Titans are the first team in NFL history which has a 2000 yard rusher AND a QB who threw for more than 3500 yards. The Titans average nearly 400 yards of offense per game, second only to the defending champion Chiefs. Despite this game being played at Tennesse, the Titans find themselves "getting points." Thats noteworthy, as the OVER is a perfect 6-0 the past six times that the Titans were listed as underdogs. This will make it seven straight. |
|||||||
01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46.5 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 57 m | Show |
I'm playing on TB/Washington UNDER the total. I won with Washington 'under' on Sunday night, while losing with the Eagles. (Thanks Doug Pederson #$%@) The 20-14 final marked the fifth straight Washington game which had stayed below the total. While that normally would cause the O/U lines to start going down, this O/U line is higher than any of those ones. That's because, in part, because the betting public is enamored with Tom Brady. The thought process being that any game that Brady is in will most certainly be high-scoring. Tampa's recent high-scoring games have only helped to strengthen that perception. Certainly, the future Hall-Of-Famer has had his share of good moments this season. However, he's also had some bad ones. Keep in mind that the recent high-scornig TB games have come against the likes of Detroit (worst defense in league, in terms of ppg) Atlanta (twice) and Minnesota (28th defense in terms of ppg). This Washington defense is far stingier than any that Brady and co. have faced recently. Note that Mike Evans, Brady's favorite receiver on this team, hyperextended his knee last game. Though they hope to have him back, if he does play, he may not be quite 100%. On the other side, the Bucs defense is quietly also very good. While the number took a bit of a hit lately, Tampa still only allows 22.2 ppg. With Washington running the ball regularly to help chew up the clock, look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Washington/Philly UNDER the total. Washington is on an 'under' streak while Philadelphia is on an 'over' streak. On a chilly and likely wet night, with the division on the line, I expect it to be the first of those streaks which continues. Washington is in this position because of its defense. Its allowed 20 or fewer points in six straight games. The Eagles' offense has certainly been better since Wentz got benched. That said, they've still scored less than 27 points in nine straight games. Last time out, they managed a mere 17 against a normally porous Dallas defense. Thats now five of their last seven games where the Eagles have scored 17 or less. Washington, meanwhile, managed just 13 points last week after scoring only 15 in its previous game. That's four straight games where the Football Team has scored less than 24. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
01-01-21 | Notre Dame v. Alabama UNDER 66.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on ND/Alabama UNDER the total. Obviously, the Alabama offense is really, really good. However, this is also a very high O/U line and this Notre Dame defense is a lot better than many realize. No, the Irish won't be able to stop the Tide. But they should be able to slow them down better than most other teams. Remember, that ND ranked in the top 25 in both points allowed and yards allowed, despite having to face Clemson twice. Speaking of Clemson, Notre Dame's most recent game with the Tigers had an O/U line of 57 and finished with just 44 points. While the offense gets all the headlines, as per usual, the Alabama defense is also loaded with stars. While their last game was high-scoring, the Tide have been alternating between 'unders' and 'overs' their past six games, dating back to Halloween. Expect that 'pattern' to continue as this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
|||||||
12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma UNDER 68.5 | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on Florida/Oklahoma UNDER the total. As you may have heard, the Gators' offense has taken a pretty major hit. They'll still have their star QB but he'll be without his top FOUR receiving options. Those four guys (receives Grimes, Toney, Copeland and tight-end Pitts) combined for 2778 yards and 34 touchdowns this season. Obviously, that's significant. Meanwhile, the Sooners defense is better than the recent editions that have been beaten up by SEC teams. OU has allowed a mere 57 points its last four games. That's actually their best defensive stretch, in terms of points allowed, in the past six years. While the Sooners led the Big 12 with 36 sacks, the Gators led the SEC with 33. Oklahoma defensive end Ronnie Perkins said this of the Sooner defense: 'After suffering those two losses early in the season, the defense definitely turned it up. I definitely feel that switch. We've got great players all over the field. A lot of guys who have kind of been in it, took a lot of reps in this defense over the last two years. So we're a confident group. We play hard, play fast.'' Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-27-20 | Bengals v. Texans OVER 44 | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Houston OVER the total. With neither of these teams playing for playoff positioning, there's little reason to play conservatively. Yet, the O/U line has come down from its opener. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Houston has seen four of its last five games produce at least 46 combined points. (The other saw 43 points scored.) Overall, on the season, Texan games have averaged 50.1 points. While Cincinnati games have averaged "only" 44.8 points, the Bengals come in confident, having just scored 27 against the Steelers last time out. While the Texans managed only 81 rushing yards against the Colts last week, its worth noting that the OVER is 6-1 the past seven times that they'd rushed for less than 90 yards in their previous game. Look for those stats to improve as this one proves higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 48.5 | Top | 26-25 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miami/LV UNDER the total. Considering that the Dolphins allow just 18.4 ppg, I believe that this number is generously high. While they're not in Miami's class defensively, having fired their defensive coordinator before last week's game, the Raiders are determined to improve on that side of the ball. Facing an offensively challenged Dolphin team should help in that regard. I expect a heavy dose of the run from both teams, which will help to keep the clock moving. (Both teams rank in the top half of the NFL, in terms of rushing attempts per game.) Over their past six games, the Dolphins only allowed more than 21 points once - and that was against the defending world champs. Take away that game against KC and the Dolphins have allowed 12, 7 and three points over their last three. While many assume all Raider games will be high-scoring, I'm expecting this one to result in a relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
12-24-20 | Hawaii v. Houston OVER 62.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 3 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hawaii/Houston OVER the total. The last time these teams met was in the Hawaii Bowl in 2003. They brawled at the end of a wild 54-48 (3-OT) win by the Warriors. That was a long time ago. However, I'm expecting another high-scoring affair, this Christmas Eve. While it hasn't played in awhile, Houston has scored 83 points its last two games. I expect the explosive Cougars to have plenty of success against a suspect Hawaii defense which allows 420 yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Cougars, have given up 133 points over their past four, an average of more than 33 points allowed per game. Hawaii scored 38 points its last game after allowing 35 in its previous game. The Warriors, too, should have success on offense, facing a Houston defense which allows an average of 32.6 ppg. All things considered, I feel this number, which has come down a bit from its opener, is a little low. While they won't match the 2003 bowl, I look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-23-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Memphis OVER 49.5 | Top | 10-25 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on Memphis/FAU OVER the total. These teams have very different stats. FAU games have been low-scoring, the reason we're working with quite a low O/U number. Yet, Memphis games have averaged more than 61 points. While the Owls did have some low-scoring games, they come into this one off a high-scoring 45-31 loss. They've scored 24 or more in three of their last four and I expect them to have success against a supsect Memphis defense. The Tigers played 10 games this season. Nine of those produced a minimum of 56 points. FAU saw last year's bowl game finish with a score of 52-28, a game which finished above the number by double-digits. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals OVER 40 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Cincinnati OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 45. They finished with 46. Now, with both teams having played some recent 'unders' and the Bengals starting Finley at QB, the O/U line is considerably lower. Before, it was above the 44 mark. Now, we're working with an O/U line below the important 41 mark. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. The Steelers are out to prove that "all is fine." The Bengals are out to prove that they're not a joke. Both offenses are going to be motivated to move the ball. Both teams have seen their games average more than 44 points overall, on the season. Eleven of Pittsburgh's 13 games, including each of the past two, have finished with at least 40 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-20-20 | Eagles v. Cardinals OVER 47.5 | Top | 26-33 | Win | 100 | 151 h 22 m | Show |
I'm playing on Philadelphia/Arizona OVER the total. While watching the Eagles beat the Saints last week, a number of things stood out to me. Of those, the two most important were: 1. The offense was a lot better with Hurts than with Wentz. He played smart, made good throws while also running very effectively. In fact, both Hurts and Sanders ran for more than 100 yards. Certainly, the offense looked much improved overall. Keep in mind that the Eagles were facing the #1 rated defense in the league. Also, it should be noted that Hurts led the Eagles on a very impressive drive at the end of the first half. Got them all the way down to the 2-yard line, or so, only to bring in Eliott and have him miss a chip-shot field goal. That was a bit of a momentum-killer but it sure wasn't on Hurts. Sean Payton said this of Hurts: " .... was impressive just watching him. I thought he played with poise, made some throws. He was smart. He did a good job." 2. The second important thing that really stood out was that the Eagles' defenders were dropping like flies. Already banged up on that side of the ball, a number of Philadelphia defenders went down. To their credit, the remaining Eagle defenders hung tough. However, a road game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals is entirely different than a home game against Taysom Hill. The Eagles have given up 30, 22, 27 and 38 points their past four road games, an average of more than 29 ppg. While the Cards, who have faced some tough defenses of late, have scored "only" 26 and 28 points their past two games, it wasn't long ago when they had a stretch of five straight games where they scored 30 or more. Overall, Arizona games are averaging 52.4 points. I expect both offenses to have success in this one, the final combined score finishing above the reasonably low total. |
|||||||
12-17-20 | Chargers v. Raiders UNDER 53 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 50 m | Show | |
I'm playing on LA/LV UNDER the total. Needless to say, having just fired their defensive coordinator, the Raiders want to place an emphasis on improved defense. Yes, the Raiders are banged-up on that side of the ball. However, as Gruden says: "We just got to have guys step up." On offense, to try and take some pressure off of the defense, I expect a heavy dose of the run as the Raiders try and control the clock. As for the Chargers, they're off a solid defensive effort, as they limited Atlanta to just 17 points. On the other side of the ball, the Charger offense has only averaged 10 points the past two games. Each of those games finished with 45 or fewer points. While those games were both at home, the Chargers' last two road games have also both finished with 50 or less. Don't be surprised when this one proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 45.5 | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Cleveland OVER the total. When these teams met earlier, the O/U line was 47.5. Baltimore did its part to get over that number, scoring 38 points. However, Cleveland managed just six points. We're likely to see a closer game tonight, this time with both teams contributing to the scoring. Indeed, both these offenses were clicking last time out. Lamar and the Ravens dropped 34 points on Dallas. The Browns were even better. They put 41 points on the board, at Tennessee. Speaking of Cleveland, it should be noted that the Browns will be without their top cornerback (Ward) for this one. I believe that his absence hurts their defense. While Baltimore games are averaging "only" 45.6 points, Cleveland games are averaging a much higher 52.3 points. All things considered, this number is a little low. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills UNDER 49 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Pittsburgh/Buffalo UNDER the total. On a chilly night in Buffalo, I expect the defenses to steal center stage. The Steelers struggled on offense last week. The receivers dropped balls and they couldn't run the ball when they needed to. They've now been held below 20 points in both December games and they've seen each of their last three games finish below the total. On the other side of the ball, however, the Steelers remain dominant. They allow just 17.6 ppg, the best mark in the NFL. The Bills defense has been improved the past couple of weeks, as they've allowed 24 and 17 points. A closer look shows that they've played four straight against teams from the NFC. Their last three games against AFC teams have all finished with 45 or fewer points, scores of 24-21, 18-10 and 26-17, that one coming against the high-scoring Chiefs. All things considered, I feel that this number is generously high. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Saints v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NO/Philadelphia OVER the total. This O/U line came down and is very low, beneath the important 44 mark and the lowest on the entire board. I believe that it'll prove to be too low. I like the fact that the Eagles have finally made the QB switch and I expect that move to have a positive effect. Yes, the Saints' defense has been playing well. This is their third straight road game though and they're facing a desperate team with an aggressive coach. NO games are still averaging 49 points on the season while Philly games are averaging 46.7 points. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Washington Football Team v. 49ers UNDER 44 | 23-15 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SF/Washington UNDER the total. Both these defenses are very capable. Washington ranks 4th in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game. On the Rams, Saints and Steelers are better. SF is right behind the Football Team, ranking 6th in that category. Both these teams also want to run the ball with regularity. That, of course, helps to keep the clock moving. Washington has seen six of its past eight games finish with less than 44 points. The only two that didn't were games against Dallas and Detroit. Those two teams rank #31 and #32 (last and second last) in the league in terms of points allowed, per game. Facing a stingier SF defense, determined to bounce back, I expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals OVER 42.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Cincinnati OVER the total. I've won with the "over" in each of the Cowboys' last two games. Once again, I feel that the O/U number will prove to be too low. Note that its below the important 44 mark. The Bengals' last four opponents (Miami, Pitt, NYG, Wash) all rank in the top 10 of the league, in terms of points allowed. Now, however, the Bengals face a team which ranks dead last in that category. Here's an excerpt from what I said last week: "... I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points ..." Sure enough, Dallas gave up 34 more points, while scoring 17 of its own. Expect the Bengal offense to "get healthy," both teams combining for enough points to send the final combined score above the low number. |
|||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State OVER 58.5 | Top | 20-30 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
I'm playing on Nevada/SJ State OVER the total. Last year's game between these teams produced a whopping 79 points, a 41-38 Nevada win. I'm expecting another shootout for tonight's game, which will be played in Las Vegas. Note that the last three meetings between these teams, played in the state of Nevada, have all finished with greater than 70 combined points. Nevada is led by the top QB in the conference. Carson Strong has thrown for more than 2300 yards and 21 TDs. No other QB in the conference is close, in terms of TDs. That said, Spartan QB Nick Starkel has also quietly been getting it done. He doesn't make mistakes and has the best passer rating in the conference. Nevada, which put up 37 points last game, is going to throw the ball a lot, the best passing attack that the Spartans have faced. That will lead to big plays when the passes connect and time stoppages when they don't. The Spartans put up 35 points last time out though, the third time in the last four games that they're scored at least 34. Don't be surprised when both teams top 30, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
|||||||
12-10-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Southern Miss OVER 42 | 31-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on FAU/Southern Miss OVER the total. This is a very low O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too low. Note that last year's O/U line was 56.5. Southern Miss allows more than 32 ppg and has given up more than 50 on a couple of occasions. The Owls put up 38 in a win against rival FIU, so they've got an offense capable of exploiting the vulnrable Golden Eagle defense. While there were a couple of duds mixed in there, Southern Miss has still scored 20 or more points in seven of its nine games. Last year's game saw 51 points scored. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Baltimore OVER the total. I won with the 'over' in the Cowboys' Thanksgiving Day game. That was against a Washington offense which hadn't scored more than 27 points in a single game all season. Yet, The Football Team exploded for 41 points. The Dallas defense tends to do that to teams. Since allowing 20 points in the first game of the season, the Cowboys have conceded 23 or more to all 10 opponents. They've given up 38 or more points on five different occasions. Not surprisingly, they rank dead last in terms of points allowed (32.6) per game. In other words, Lamar and the Ravens are going to put up a big number. While the Baltimore defense is certainly better, I believe that the Cowboys, still averaging 22 ppg their last three, have the weapons on offense to contribute their own decent chunk of points. The Ravens have allowed at least 19 points in five of their last six, including three straight. Three of those opponents scored 28 or more. All things considered, this number is low. |
|||||||
12-07-20 | Washington Football Team v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
I'm playing on Washington/Pittsburgh UNDER the total. I won with the 'over' in Washington's last game. However, that was against Dallas. The Steelers are a far stingier opponent. Yet, the O/U line is basically the same as it was for that game. Even after the big day on Thanksgiving, Washington still ranks only 24th in terms of points scored per game. Meanwhile, the Stelers have allowed 14, 10 and 3 points their last three games. Prior to limiting the Cowboys to 16 points, Washington kept Cincy to just nine. The Steelers allow the fewest points in all of football while Washington ranks seventh in that category. They rank #3 and #4, respectively, in terms of yards allowed per game. Expect a defensive, low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Denver/KC UNDER the total. The earlier meeting finished above the total with 59 points. That O/U line was just 45. Since that time, the Broncos have scored progressively less in nearly every game. In the game immediately following KC, they scored 31. After that, they scored 27. However, since that point, they managed only 12, 20 and 3 points. Yet, despite Denver's recent offensive struggles, we're working with a considerably higher O/U line than we were for the earlier meeting. I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Not surprisingly, each of Denver's last three gmaes have finished below the number. They'll be doing everything that they can here to establish the run and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. In the two games that the Chiefs were favored by more than 10.5 points this season, the final scores were 35-9 and 26-10, both final scores staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets OVER 46 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NY/LV OVER the total. I believe that the NY offense will get going Sunday afternoon. The Raiders gave up 43 points at Atlanta last week after giving up 35 the previous game. While the Jets did struggle to score last game, they had scored 28 and 35 in their previous two and the offense is finally now healthier than it was earlier in the season. I'm not worried about Jacobs being out for the Raiders. Booker is a capable backup and if Jacobs' absence encourages Carr to throw a little more, all the better. The Raiders have seeen 10 of their 11 games, including four straight, produce a minimum of 49 points. I say this one does too. |
|||||||
12-05-20 | San Jose State v. Hawaii OVER 58.5 | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 74 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Hawaii/SJ State OVER the total. This game was originally supposed to be played at San Jose. However, with the covid restrictions in Santa Clara county, it was moved to Hawaii. It'll be the earliest start time for a game in Hawaii in nearly 20 years. The change of venue suits me just fine. In fact, I like it. The Spartans were going to score, regardless of where the game was played. They've scored 34, 28 and 38 points the past three games. The 28 came against a stingy SD State defense. The Spartans will put up a big number against a Hawaii defense which has allowed more than 30 points in four of its past five games. Now, with the game being played at Hawaii, the Warriors will also score. In three games here, they've averaged 32 ppg. These teams have played three straight 'overs' against each other and the past two years, the games have finished with 82 and 85 points. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles OVER 50.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 177 h 28 m | Show |
I'm playing on Seattle/Philadelphia OVER the total. The Seahawks can score points with the best of them. They average 31.8 ppg. Entering Sunday's action, that's second only to KC's 32.1 ppg. Their 400 yards per game ranks fourth and their 6.6 yards per play, ranks second. In other words, the Eagles are going to have to score of they want to keep up. Given that Seattle ranks just 28th, in terms of points allowed and dead last in terms of total yards allowed, I believe that the Eagles will do exactly that. Wentz reportedly had a good week of practice and the Eagles are planning on working Hurts more into the offense. I say it all adds up to a high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 44.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Miami/NYJ OVER the total. This season's earlier meeting was low-scoring (24-0) as the Jets couldn't score. While this O/U line is lower than that one was, I'm expecting considerably more points this afternoon. The Jets' offense has gotten rolling the past couple of weeks. Their past two games have had scores of 34-28 and 30-27. The Dolphins are off a low-scoring game. However, that was at Denver against a capable Bronco defense that really came to play that day. The Dolphins' previous two games had scores of 34-31 and 29-21. While some may see the return of Darnold and Fitzpatrick at QB as a negative, remember that these guys were previously the starters. Darnold wasn't working with a full deck before and now he is. Expect both offenses to move the ball, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss OVER 68.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Miss. State / Ole Miss OVER the total. In a battle of Mike Leach against Lane Kiffen, each known for their offensive mindsets, we can expect plenty of points in this one. Ole Miss games are averaging more than 80 points this season. The Rebels score 41 ppg and the allow 40.9. The Bulldogs haven't played in nearly as many high-scoring games. However, they're coming off a relatively high-scoring affair against Georgia. QB Will Rogers was 41 of 52 for more than 300 yards. On the other side, however, the Bulldogs gave up more than 400 yards (and 4 TDs) through the air. The Rebels have scored more than 50 in b2b weeks, throwing for nearly 1000 yards. They may well exceed the 50 mark again with the Bulldogs chipping in plenty of their own. |
|||||||
11-28-20 | Kentucky v. Florida UNDER 57.5 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Kentucky/Florida UNDER the total. Kentucky couldn't stop Alabama last week, giving up 63 points. While the Gators also have a potent offense, I expect the Wildcats to do a better job at slowing them down. Certainly, the Cats will be doing everything they can not to get embarrassed like that again. Keep in mind that Kentucky has still held three of five opponents, one of them Georgia, to 14 or fewer points. This will be the second time that the Wildcats played the second of b2b road games. The first time, they combined with Missouri for just 30 points. The Florida defense has been making some strides. Facing a Kentucky team which has scored just three points, in two of its last three games, will be a great opportunity for the "D" to really gain some confidence. Note that the last five meetings have all finished with 55 or fewer combined points. Going back further finds that this is a higher O/U line than any of the past 12 games between these teams. Look for it to prove to be too high. |
|||||||
11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 46 | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Washington/Dallas OVER the total. The Dallas offense got healthy last week. Dalton threw for three TD's. Elliott ran for more than 100 yards, for the first time all season. The Dallas defense still gave up 450 total yards though. The 31.8 ppg that the Cowboys allow is still the highest in the league. Washington has scored 20 or more points in four straight games, none of those games coming against teams which allow as many points as Dallas. They scored 25 in the earlier game against the Cowboys. They should get 20 or more once again, only this time, expect the Cowboys to contribute A LOT more of their own, sending the final combined score above the number. |
|||||||
11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions UNDER 51 | 41-25 | Loss | -107 | 75 h 19 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Detroit UNDER the total. Given the current form of these offenses, I believe this number is generously high. The Lions didn't score a single point last time out, getting blanked 20-0 at Carolina. Not too good, considering that those same Panthers had been lit up for 46 points the previous week. The Lions would manage a mere 185 total yards. The Lions are now averaging 22.7 ppg. The Texans can relate. They, too, are averaging just 22.7 ppg. Last time on the road, they scored just seven. On the other side, the Houston defense has made some strides of late; they've allowed an average of 15 ppg the past two games. While I won with the 'over' in last year's Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, we're working with a much higher number here. I say that it proves to be too high. |
|||||||
11-22-20 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 57 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/LV UNDER the total. Everyone knows that the Chiefs' offense remains really good. However, its their defense which quietly remains underrated. Their 20.3 ppg allowed ranks #6 in the NFL. After getting lit up for 40 points by these same Raiders, the champs responded by allowing 17, 16 and nine points in their next three games. With an extra week to prepare, thanks to last week's bye, I expect the coaching staff to do a much better job at slowing down the Raiders. The Raiders have recently started to get pretty stingy themselves. Last time out, they limited Denver to 12 points. Remember, they rang in November with a 16-6 win at Cleveland. Prior to last month's high-scoring affair, these teams had seen their previous three meetings all finish below the 50 mark, with combined scores of 49, 38 and 38. Overall, seven of the past 10 meetings have fallen below the number. We're working with a very big number, higher than any of those previous 10 meetings, and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-21-20 | USC v. Utah OVER 57.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
I'm playing on USC/Utah OVER the total. The Trojans can and will score. Utah should be able to do so, too. Kyle Whittingham had this to say of his team: "... We have some good things going for us on offense with very few new players and it being a veteran group. We expect to be productive on offense. The key is also how quickly this defense can come around ..." Indeed, the Utes lost a lot on the defensive side of the ball. Nine starters are gone from last year's defense. The Trojans will take advantage by putting up a big number. The OVER is 4-0-1 the last five in the series. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 61 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
I'm playing on Purdue/Minnesota OVER the total. These teams have both faced some stingy opponents thus far, particularly last time out. Purdue comes off a game against Northwestern while Minnesota had to contend with Iowa. Both those teams are allowing less than 15 ppg, their defenses currently ranking among the nation's leaders. Neither of these teams are quite as stingy though, so both offenses will have a chance to "get healthy." Purdue did put up a respectable 31 points (at Illinois) in its lone road game. The Gophers, meanwhile, scored 85 points in their two games before Iowa, 44 against Maryland and 41 against Illinois. On the other side of the ball, it should be mentioned that the Gophers lost a ton on defense from last year and that's led to them allowing 35.8 ppg, worst in the Big Ten. Minnesota racked up nearly 500 yards of offense in winning last year's game by a 38-31 score. That one finished well above the total and I look for tonight's game to also prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa OVER 51.5 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Tulane/Tulsa OVER the total. Tulsa scored only 28 points last time out. However, in its previous three games, the Golden Hurricane tallied 34, 42 and 34. Facing what I still believe to be a porous Tulane defense, I expect them to "bounce back" with a huge offensive outburst. They're going to need to, in order to keep up with a Tulane offense which is firing on all cylinders. The Green Wave have been favored in their past few games and they've played sound defense in winning those. They've now allowed 27 or fewer points all six times that they were favored. However, the numbers tell a different story when Tulane has been an underdog. The Green Wave have been underdogs three times this season and they allowed 51, 37 and 49 points. The Green Wave topped 30 in each of those games themselves, making for a perfect 3-0 OVER mark when they've been underdogs. Those games finished with 85, 71 and 80 combined points, respectively. After scoring 38 in three straight games, the Green Wave have now quietly scored more than 30 points in seven straight games, including 66 in one of those. Last year's game finished with 64 points, bringing the OVER to 5-1 the past six in this series. Those five "overs" had combined scores of 64, 90, 77, 79 and 69. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green UNDER 59 | Top | 42-17 | Push | 0 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on Buffalo/BG UNDER the total. Six of the past eight meetings between these teams have fallen below the number. While last year's game was not one of them, we're working with a higher O/U number this season. (Last year's game had a final score of 49-7 and the O/U line was 53.5.) In a game where I expect the home team to struggle scoring, I feel that the bigger number is providing us with very fair value. I won with the Bulls last week but I also won a free play on their game to go 'under' the total. In both cases, I mentioned how the Buffalo defense was really stingy last season and that the Bulls had brought back a lot of players on the defensive side of the ball. The Bulls would go on to hold Miami Ohio to just 10 points and only 258 total yards. That was against the defending MAC champs. Now, they face a much worse Bowling Green team, one which scored just three points in its opening game against Toledo. Indeed, the Falcons are likely going to have trouble scoring in this one. Last week, the Bulls "aired it out," their QB enjoying a record day. Even so, the game stayed below the total. Facing an inferior opponent, I expect the Bulls to place a bigger emphasis on the ground game in this one. The Bulls are likely to put up quite a few points but not enough to get over this number; I've already noted I don't expect them to get much help from the Falcons. Look for the final combined score to prove lower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 44 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 50 m | Show |
I'm playing on Baltimore/New England UNDER the total. I won with the Patriots to go 'over' in their last game, against the Jets. Therefore, you might wonder why I'd go with the 'under' against Baltimore, which has a better offense than New York. Well, there are a number of reasons. The obvious is that the Ravens have a much better defense than the Jets. Last week, they limited the Colts to just 10 points. In fact, they're allowing just 17.8 ppg, which is best in the entire NFL. (By comparison, the Jets allow 29.8 ppg, 27th best in the NFL.) Also, while the Jets were "playing out the string," every game is a big deal for Baltimore. In other words, there should be no lack of defensive intensity. We're also working with a higher O/U line than we were for the MNF game against the Jets, one which climbed from its opener to provide additional line value. It should also be noted that these teams both run the ball. A lot. The Ravens run the ball 33.3 times per game, #1 in the NFL. The Pats run the ball 32.8 times per game, tied for #2. With two stingy defenses and two offenses keeping the clock moving by running the ball with regularity, expect a low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | UNLV v. San Jose State OVER 58.5 | Top | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 42 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SJ State OVER the total. I won with the 'under' in the Rebels' first game. I also won with the 'under' in the Spartans' last game. However, in both those cases, the opponent was San Diego State. In both cases, the reason I was playing the 'under' was because I respected the SDSU defense and expected the Aztecs to slow the game down. I also mentioned that UNLV was learning a new offense. Things are different now though. The Spartans offense is quietly pretty potent. San Jose State scored 28 against SD State and they scored 38 points in their game before that. The Spartans should put up a big number against a porous UNLV defense which has allowed 34, 37 and 40 points. On the other side of the ball, the Rebels have been learning the offense and scoring more and more points each time out. They started by scoring only six in the game against the Aztecs. That was followed by 19 vs. Navy and 27 last time out. Last year's meeting had a score of 38-35. The year before had a score of 50-37. Expect another high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on Boise/CSU UNDER the total. The Broncos have been going 'over' the total so far this season but I expect that to change tonight. Off their worst home loss in 24 years, the Broncos are going to be looking to improve defensively. The last time (9/15/18 vs. OSU) that they lost a regular season game by double-digits, they responded by holding Wyoming to 14 points, a 34-14 victory. The Cowboys had 0 points at halftime and seven going into the fourth. I say that the Broncos come out and dominate defensively right from the opening whistle, once again. Dating back to last season, the Rams have seen six of their past eight road games stay below the number. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio OVER 56.5 | 10-24 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Akron/Ohio OVER the total. Given their recent history and given the way both teams' opening game played out, I feel that this O/U line is a little low. Akron gave up 58 points its opening game, a 58-13 loss. Ohio combined with Central Michigan for 57 points. However, that one could have easily been higher-scoring, as they already had 40 by halftime; only three fourth quarter points were scored. Still, Ohio QB (Kurtis) Rourke now has a game under his belt after replacing his brother. Nathan. He'll be salivating at a chance to light up the porous Zips' defense. The last three meetings between these teams have averaged 67+ points. Akron's last visit here had an O/U line of 57. Yet, the teams combined for 77, a 49-28 win for Ohio. I expect a similar result from these instate rivals this evening. |
|||||||
11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NE/NYJ OVER the total. Tough day for the Patriots yesterday, as the Bills (and Dolphins) won. Reality is setting in for even the most diehard Patriot fans. Regardless of what happens tongiht, their long-standing reign at the top of the division will be coming to an end. Of course, the Jets have been playing out the string for awhile now. They've essentially been out of playoff contention the entire season. All that said, this is more of a game for pride than anything else. Those kind of games, in my experience, tend to be more high-scoring. I expect that to be the case tonight. Keep in mind that the O/U line is lower than ANY of the O/U lines yesterday. So, we don't need to have that high-scoring a game, in order to finish above the total. The Pats scored 21 against the Bills last week and now they're facing a Jets team which allows 29.8 ppg. While the Jets' offense has certainly struggled with Darnold behind center recently, I like that Flacco will be in there tonight. The veteran QB had this to say: ''The bottom line is, it's a lot easier going into the game knowing that I'm playing now than it is to come off the bench at some point in the game. I've gotten my feet wet and all those kinds of things,'' he said. ''So, I feel really good going into the game.'' Look for both offenses to "get healthy" the final combined score finishing above the low number. |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Panthers v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 31-33 | Loss | -118 | 90 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Carolina/KC UNDER the total. Mahomes rightfully steals all the headlines. However, the champs are quietly playing very well on the other side of the ball. Last week, they allowed just nine points. Thats three straight weeks that the Chiefs have allowed 17 or fewer points, one of those games coming against previously high-scoring Buffalo. At 19 ppg allowed overall, the Chiefs are tied for third in the league, in terms of points allowed. Now, they'll face a Carolina team which managed only 17 points against Atlanta last week, the second time in three weeks that the Panthers scored 17 or less. I expect the Panthers to have trouble scoring. Since a high-scoring opener against Vegas, the Panthers have seen all seven of their games finish with less than 52 points. Look for this one to do the same. |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Lions v. Vikings UNDER 52.5 | 20-34 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Detroit/Minnesota UNDER the total. I looked back at the last 20 meetings between these division rivals and NONE of them had an O/U line this high. Even with the lower totals, this has been a low-scoring series of late. Three of the past four meetings and six of the past eight, have finished below the number. The most recent meeting was last December. The O/U line was 44. The teams combined for just 27 points. Going back a bit further finds the UNDER at 10-3 the past 13 meetings. The Lions have allowed 23 or fewer points in each of their past three on the road. The Vikings held the Packers to just 22 last game. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Washington State v. Oregon State UNDER 64 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on WSU/OSU UNDER the total. These teams have had some recent shootouts and they played a crazy 54-53 game against each other last year. However, that may not even get half that many here. This year, both these teams brought back a lot more production on the defensive side of the ball than on the offensive one. The Cougars have a brand new offense, as they're making the move from the "Air Raid" to the "Run-And-Shoot." While that may prove better in the long run, a brand new offense with a lot of new players can't be expected to click in its very first game. Expect more running plays to help chew up the clock. As for the Beavers, they lost QB Jake Luton to the NFL. That's never easy to replace an NFL quality quarterback. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
|||||||
11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State UNDER 50 | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
I'm playing on SJ State/SD State UNDER the total. The UNDER is 5-1 the past six meetings in this series, 2-0 the past two seasons. Those games both had O/U lines of 45.5 yet finished with 29 and 44 points, respectively. We're working with a higher number this evening and I feel thats providing us with excellent value. Yes, SJ State has been throwing the ball well. Yes, both offenses are capable; the reason for the higher O/U number. However, the Aztecs bring an extremely stingy defense to the table. They've allowed seven points and six points. Thats partly due to the opponents they've faced but not entirely. The 200 yards that they're allowing per game ranks #1 in the nation. While I expect the Spartans to have trouble scoring, they have played relatively well on the defensive side of the ball. They're allowing 13.5 ppg. SJ State has scored just 23 points combined, its last three visits here. All three games stayed below the total. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 34-17 | Push | 0 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
I'm playing on GB/SF UNDER the total. The last 10 meetings between these teams have all had O/U lines in the 40s. This one is higher than any of them and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. While they've got numerous injuries on both sides of the ball, the 49ers remain a team which wants to play stingy defense and pound the ball on the ground. Facing an elite QB like Rodgers, they'll be even more inclined than normal to try and control the clock and keep him on the sidelines. The loss of Kittle is a big blow to their offense, he's their most dangerous player and arguably the top tight-end in the league. Yes, the 49ers had trouble containing Wilson last week. However, the previous week, they held the Patriots to six points. Their last home gmae ended with a score of 24-16. While the Green Bay offense can be explosive it also can be slowed. The Pack managed just 22 points last week and they're less than a month removed from a 10-point effort at Tampa. Look for this game to prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting, the final combined score finishing below the generously high number. |
|||||||
11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada UNDER 56.5 | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Utah State/Nevada UNDER the total. This O/U number has climbed from its opener. While Nevada does have a dangerous offense, I feel that generously high number is providing us with excellent value. Last year's game had an O/U line of 59 and finished with just 46. Utah State isn't nearly as dangerous on offense this year though. Not yet, anyway. The Aggies are averaging only 10 points through two games, having scored 13 and seven points. Facing a Wolf Pack defense which gave up just 19 last game, the Aggies figure to have real trouble scoring once again. Nevada Coach Norvell had this to say about Utah State losing QB Jordan Love to the NFL "It's hard to lose a quarterback of that caliber and play with the same type of productivity. It's difficult to replace a player that good." Love's replacement, Jason Shelley is just 27 of 48 with more INTs than TDs. As for Nevada, though it hasn't slowed them down yet, the Wolf Pack are without senior WR Elijah Cooks. Though they are strong through the air, I expect the Pack to get a lead and to lean on the run game, helping to chew up the clock and keeping the final combined score below the fairly big number. |
|||||||
11-04-20 | Ohio v. Central Michigan UNDER 60 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 1 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Ohio/Central Michigan UNDER the total. We typically think of MAC games as being high-scoring. Many of them are. However, recent games between these teams have not been. In fact, the last four meetings have all finished with less than 50 combined points. Both teams ranked in the top half of the MAC last year, in terms of total defense. This year, both teams returned more production on the defensive side of the ball. Both defenses returned most of their tacklers from last year. Both offenses are breaking in new QB's. That said and with this being the first game of the season, some early offensive rust won't surprise. All things considered, this number is generously high. |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
I'm playing on Dallas/Philly OVER the total. I've actually won with the 'under' in each of Dallas' last two games, against Arizona and Washington. However, those O/U lines were both considerably higher than this one. Now, with Dalton expected to be out, this O/U line has gone even lower than it opened at. I believe its too low. While Dalton was expected to be a quality backup, the offense wasn't working with him running it. So, DiNucci can't possibly be worse. In fact, given the weapons he's got at his disposal, I expect him to be better. Indeed, the Eagles allow 28 ppg and Dallas will score points. On the other side of the ball, however, is where the Cowboys' real problems are. The defense is giving up big yards and big points. They can't stop the run OR the pass. They're allowing a whopping 34.7 ppg. Needless to say, the Eagles are licking their chops. They're not about to show a hated rival any mercy, either. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | San Diego State v. Utah State UNDER 44 | Top | 38-7 | Loss | -115 | 87 h 53 m | Show |
I'm playing on SDSU/Utah State UNDER the total. At first glance, this O/U number may look a little low. However, with both teams expected to chew up the clock with frequent running plays, I'm expecting a low-scoring affair and feel that the number could easily be even lower. I won with the 'under' in last week's SDSU game. The Aztecs were stingy defensively, as I expected. They held the Rebels to just six points and 186 yards. UNLV had just 25 yards (and 0 points) at halftime! Part of that dominant performance stemmed from the fact that UNLV was very young and outmatched. However, it was also due to the fact that the Aztecs defense is really good. I expect the Aggies, who managed only 13 points and 203 yards in their opener, to also have trouble scoring against them. On offense, the Aztecs typically don't do anything too fancy. They ran the ball 46 times last week. In last week's analysis I noted the following: "...The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: 'I'm just going to be a distributor this year' ..." To their credit, the Aggies also kept running the ball last week. They had 43 rushing attempts. Look for yards and points to be tough to come by, the final combined score proving lower than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming UNDER 60 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Hawaii/Wyoming UNDER the total. These teams combined for just 30 points in their last meeting. Their previous game also produced less than 50. Not surprisingly, both those games stayed below the number. On a chilly night in Laramie, I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair this evening. In winning its opener, Hawaii played stingy defense and ran the ball frequently. Senior defensive back Eugene Ford, who had two INTs, noted: "All the credit goes to my defensive) line. Them boys were getting after that quarterback... all the credit goes to them, but it felt good." Overall, the Hawaii D had four takeaways. On the other side, dealing with the conditions and having missed some practice time, Hawaii figures to keep it fairly. Likewise with Wyoming, which lost its starting QB to a broken leg last week. While the final numbers didn't look good (37-34 OT loss) the Wyoming defense did have eight tackles for a loss (3 sacks) last week. All things considered, I feel this number is generously high and I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern OVER 50.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 58 h 43 m | Show | |
I'm playing on South Alabama/Georgia Southern OVER the total. The Eagles are favored in this matchup. However, if they're going to win, they're going to need to score. That's because the Jaguars have scored 30 or more in back-to-back games. Last week, they put up 38 against LA-Monroe. While the offense struggled to score on the road, at ranked Coastal Carolina, the Eagles scored 41 the last time they played at home. They've got a strong rushing attack which should help them move the ball with relative ease against a porous South Alabama run defense. The last meeting between these teams, here at Georgia Southern, had an O/U line of 55 and finished with 61. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 55 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show | |
I'm playing Seattle/Arizona OVER the total. I won with the 'under' when Arizona last played. Yes, the Cardinal defense played well. However, that was against a Cowboy team playing its first game without Prescott. Now, the Cards face Russell Wilson and the high-flying Seahawks, a team which will score far more points against them than Dallas did. The Seahawks managed "only" 27 points last game. It was the first time that they hadn't cracked the 30 mark. They average a whopping 33.8 ppg, the #1 mark in the NFL. However, the 27 ppg which the Hawks allow ranks them just 19th. While the Arizona defense is good, the New England defense is considered pretty good, too. Yet, Seattle put 35 up against the Pats. Unable to stop Wilson and co, the Cards will need Murray and the offense to make things happen, in order to keep pace. Given that Arizona scored 38 last week and the fact that Seattle has allowed a minimum of 23 in every game, I believe that'll happen. Expect a high-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team UNDER 48 | 3-25 | Win | 100 | 122 h 18 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Dallas/Washington UNDER the total. You may have seen the Cowboy offense struggle against Arizona. Everyone expect a bit of a drop-off from Prescott to Dalton, but the Dallas offense dropped off a cliff. The reality is that Dalton isn't as bad as he looked. His team surely didn't help him. However, he's also not going to immediatley play the way that Prescott was, as he was playing at an elite level. With the offense having struggled so badly and the offensive line in shambles, I expect a more conservative approach then normal for this big divisional battle. By that, I mean lots of running plays and very short passes. Washington will be bringing pressure and Dalton was vulnerable to that against Arizona. Remember, the NFC East is still there for the taking. Yes, the Dallas secondary has proven vulnerable. However, Washington ranks 28th in the NFL in terms of passing yards, 30th in passing yards per attempt. In other words, Washington isn't built to take advantage of the Cowboys' weakness. Of course, the Cowboys haven't been too good at stopping the run either. However, that is an area which the Football Team will try and exploit. I expect them to employ a heavy dose of the run. Washington comes off a 20-19 game, the fifth game in a row it scored 20 or fewer points. With both teams employing a heavy dose of the run, expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | UNLV v. San Diego State UNDER 51 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
I'm playing on UNLV/SDSU UNDER the total. This number came up a bit from where it was earlier in the week; I believe we're getting excellent value. UNLV is learning a new offense and is likely going to have trouble scoring. The Aztecs have more talent on offense but they've also got a new offensive coordinator. QB Carson Baker noted that he wasn't going to try and do too much out of the gate: "I'm just going to be a distributor this year ..." The UNDER is 7-2 the last nine meetings between these teams, a perfect 4-0 the past four seasons. Last year's game had an O/U line of 44.5 but finished with a score of 20-17. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Nebraska v. Ohio State UNDER 68.5 | 17-52 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Nebraska/OSU UNDER the total. This total has climbed from its opener. I feel that the number is generously high. Yes, the Huskers have a fairly experienced offense. However, that same offense couldn't move the ball against OSU Last year's game between these teams saw the Buckeyes win 48-7. That was at Nebraska, a game which had been highly anticipated as a possible test for the Big Ten champs. Instead, it marked the third time in four meetings that Nebraska scored 14 or fewer points. The Buckeyes pounded the ball on the ground (368 rushing yards) while playing great defense. They'll be looking to employ a similar strategy here. With both teams playing their first game, I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than expected. |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
I'm playing on NY/Philly UNDER the total. While they had trouble slowing down Baltimore, I expect the Eagles to have considerably more success in doing so against the offensively challenged Giants. Given the state of the NFC East, this is a big game. The Giants won with defense last week, beating Washington by a 20-17 score. It marked the fifth time, through six games, that they scored 20 or fewer points. In fact, their 101 total points scored is the lowest in the NFC and second lowest (Jets are worse) in the entire NFL, among teams which have played six games. (Broncos have scored 100 in five games.) The last two meetings between these teams, here at Philadelphia, have both stayed below the total. Last season's game here had an O/U line of 45 and finished with 40, a 23-17 win for the Eagles. That one went to OT; just 34 points were scored in regulation. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 54 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 179 h 9 m | Show |
I'm playing on Arizona/Dallas UNDER the total. This is a very high O/U number and I believe that it'll prove to be too high. Cowboy games have flown over the total. However, Dallas is now without its starting QB and its facing an Arizona team which has been seeing its games stay below the number. Yes, the Cardinals have some dangerous offensive weapons. However, Arizona has still seen all five of its games produce 52 or fewer combined points, the UNDER going 4-0-1. While I respect Dalton, Prescott was playing at a very high level. Yes, the Cowboy offense will still be good. But, a small step back would only be natural. That means that the Cowboys will need to be better defensively. I believe that they can be. Also, a tough Arizona secondary should lead Dallas to run the ball more regularly. It all adds up to this one proving lower-scoring than the shootout which many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama UNDER 58.5 | Top | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
I'm playing on Georgia/Alabama UNDER the total. All the talk is and will be about Saban. I'm more interested in the game being played on the field. We've come to know Alabama as an elite defensive team, over the years. The Tide are more known for their offense these days though, as they've got some elite players on that side of the ball. Georgia, on the other hand, has one of the best defenses in the entire country. Alabama still has plenty of talent on the defensive side of the ball. The Tide defense is going to be very motivated, too. Both to show that Georgia isn't the only elite defense in this game and to show that they're much better than we saw last week. The Alabama offense hasn't faced a defense like this one though. Georgia coach Kirby Smart said this of his defense: "The atmosphere that's been credited on defense here is we're not letting them score." Last week, they limited Tennessee to less than one yard (-1) on the ground and 0 points, in the second half. The Bulldogs will be doing everything they can to chew up the clock when they're on offense. The last time that these teams met in October, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 48. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee UNDER 47.5 | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 17 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Kentucky/Tennessee UNDER the total. Entering the season, some ranked Kentucky's defense as third best in the SEC. Considering the number of strong defenses in the conference, that was saying something. While the experienced defense took a couple of weeks to get going, the Wildcats come off an outstanding defensive effort. In fact, they held Mississippi State to just two points. The Bulldogs only points came on a safety. Pretty good given that the Bulldogs entered that game with the SEC's top passing attack (468 yards per game) and the No. 2 offense (516.0). On the other side of the ball, despite the score, the Kentucky offense was pretty dismal. In fact, Kentucky managed a mere 157 yards of offense. While they struggled at Georgia, the Vols limited Missouri to a mere 12 points in their lone home game. Last year's meeting produced 30 combined points. The year before saw just 31 points scored. Expect another relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston UNDER 62.5 | Top | 43-26 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on BYU/Houston UNDER the total. With all due respect to the offenses, I believe this number will prove to be too high. While the BYU Cougars have been putting up a lot of points, they've also been very stingy defensively. In fact, they're only allowing an average of 11 points per game. None of their opponents have scored more than 20. The Cougars have only played one game. Though they did give up a lot of points, they actually only allowed 211 total yards. Indeed, Tulane scored two early defensive TD's which changed the outcome of the game and made Houston's points allowed look worse. The last meeting between these schools had an O/U line of 62.5 but finished with 57. I believe both defenses are better than they're being given credit for and I look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Vikings v. Seahawks UNDER 57 | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Minnesota/Seattle UNDER the total for the 1st Half. With all due respect to the Seattle offense, I feel that this number is a little high. While the Vikings have struggled defensively, they were better on that side of the ball last game. With the league's leading rusher (Cook) heading their offense, they'll be doing everything they can to sustain long drives and keep Wilson and the Seahawks offense on the sidelines. Yes, these teams did play a high-scoring game (37-30) against each other last December. However, a closer look shows that "only" 27 of those points came in the first half, 40 in the second. They'd also played a few times in recent previous seasons and those games had final scores of 21-7, 10-9 and 38-7. Look for this one to start a little more slowly than many will be expecting, the final combined halftime score staying beneath the generous number. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International OVER 56.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
I'm playing on MTSU/FIU OVER the total. Both teams are coming in hungry for their first win. Both believe that they can get it and both are going to keep fighting the entire way. Last season's game had an O/U line of 57.5 and saw 67 points scored. The Blue Raiders scored 50 of those. Including that result, since 2014, five of six meetings in the series have finished above the total. Middle Tennessee State QB Asher O'hara has enjoyed success against the Panthers in the past, particularly burning them with his legs. Two years ago, he came in to replace an injured Brett Stockstill. He rushed for 85 yards and a TD. Then, in last season's romp, he rushed for 159 yards and two TDs. He shold be poised for another fairly big game against an FIU team which allowed 36 points and more than 500 yards in its lone game. Note that the Liberty QB did whatever he wanted to them, both through the air and on the ground. Yet, the Panthers are favored for a reason. They scored 34 in their lone game and are coming in hungry to avenge last year's embarrassing loss. Expect both teams to move the ball and score plenty of points in this one, the final combined score finishing above the total for the sixth time in the past seven seasons. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | NC State v. Virginia UNDER 63.5 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 74 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NC State/UVA UNDER the total. I believe that this number is generously high. True, the Wolfpack have been involved in some shootouts, which has led to this high number. A game against Virginia figures to be different; I expect a heavy dose of the run from the Cavs, who are averaging a healthy 167.5 yards on the ground, to help keep the clock moving. These teams have met five times since 2006, most recently in 2018. Those five games had combined scores of 56, 39, 42, 53 and 21. None of the O/U lines were anywhere close to as high as this one. The Cavs saw last week's game finish with 64 points. However, that was against a powerful Clemson team which put up 41. The Wolfpack saw last week's game finish over the total. However, that was with a much lower O/U line. That one still finished with less than 60 points and would have fallen below this higher number. Look for this one to prove lower-scoring than expected, the final combined score staying beneath the generously high number. |
|||||||
10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston UNDER 60 | 31-49 | Loss | -114 | 30 h 2 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Houston/Tulane UNDER the total. Here's an excerpt of what I said prior to last year's game: "The Green Wave have a lot going for them here. They're off an absolute blowout (58-6) of Missouri State. That lopsided game allowed them to rest starters in the second half, preparing for this one. It was also at home, meaning no travel for the short week. On the other hand, Houston is off an emotional and hard-fought loss against Washington State. The Cougars left it all on the field for that one and may well experience a letdown because of. Note that they're 4-9 ATS the past couple of seasons, off an ATS cover, 0-1 ATS when off an ATS cover where the team lost SU as an underdog. Tulane is 9-4 ATS over the years, off a home blowout win of 28 or more. The home team has had the advantage in this series of late. Expect that to be the case again this evening..." Tulane ended up rallying for a 38-31 win. That was enough to send that game over the posted total. This year, we're working with a slightly higher O/U number but I'm expecting a much lower-scoring affair. Yes, Tulane has shown an ability to score. The Green Wave have a couple of future NFL players on defense though and figure to be improved on that side of the ball. Likewise for the Cougars. Dana Holgorsen brought in transfers on defense that will make them better on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, having not played a real game yet, the Cougar offense could be a little rusty out of the gate. Look for it to all add up to a much lower-scoring game than we saw last season. |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 123 h 52 m | Show |
I'm playing on Atlanta/GB UNDER the total. With all due respect to Rodgers and co, I believe this number is simply too high. Yes, GB has put up some very big numbers. Yes, the Falcons have been on the wrong side of some crazy comebacks, which has led to some high scores. Thats not going to keep happening though; they may never have a lead to blow in this one in the first place. Either way, those high scores and the high scores in the league in general, have worked in our favor, driving this O/U line up higher than it would have been, if these teams had met a few weeks ago. (The last time these teams met, the O/U line was 50.5 and they combined for 54.) Obviously, the Packer offense has been functioning at a high level. GB is going to be anxious to get the defense performing better though and I believe that's going to be a priority this week. Kingsley Keke has emerged in his absence but the Pack hope to get Kenny Clark back this week and he's huge for their defense. Either way, I see the Packers defense improving this week. Of course, the Falcons will be doing everything in their power to keep Rodgers and co. on the sidelines. They'll get some points. Just not enough to finish above this generously high number. Go Under. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team UNDER 46 | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Baltimore/Washington UNDER the total. After getting lit up by Mahomes and the defending champs, the Ravens are going to be anxious to get back to playing some stingy defense. Remember, they held their first two opponents to a total of just 22 points. Of course, Washington doesn't have the type of offense that KC does and should be much easier to slow down. On the other side, Washington will be happy to return home; Washington allowed only 17 points in its only home game. While facing the Ravens can be scary for a defense, note that Jackson was just 15 for 28 for 97 yards and was sacked four times last week. These teams combined for just 26 points (16-10 in 2016) the last time they met. With both defenses looking to get healthy and both offenses mixing in a healthy dose of the run, I say this "instate rivalry" also proves lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Tulsa v. Central Florida UNDER 71 | Top | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tulsa/UCF UNDER the total. The Knights come in determined to get some payback from last season's 34-31 loss. While they'll probably get their revenge, I feel that it'll come in the form of an improved defensive effort. Last season, the Golden Hurricane dropped 34 points on them. I don't expect the Knights to allow that to happen again. Consider that Tulsa has only been able to play one game and that it managed only seven points, while allowing just 16, in that one. As for the Knights, yes, they do indeed have a potent offense. They've scored 49 and 51 in their two games. I believe that Tulsa's defense is somewhat better than the two they have faced though. The Hurricane moved to a 3-3-5 scheme a couple of years ago and are much better defensively since doing so. Last season, they allowed less than 400 yards per game for the first time since 2012. This year's defense didn't return a ton of 'starters' but did return a lot of players with experience. As defensive coordinator Joseph Gillespie pointed out: "I don’t know that we're quite as green as what on paper it would look like. We've got a lot of guys who got not just a little bit of playing time, but a great deal of experience on the football field." Look for the Tulsa defense to slow down the Knights just enough to keep the combined final score beneath the generously high number. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints UNDER 53 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/NO UNDER the total. Brees and Rodgers get all the headlines and the presence of the two future Hall-Of-Famers has helped lead to a very high O/U number, second highest on the Sunday board. However, I'm not anticpating the type of shootout envisioned by many. Brees is without his top receiving weapon in Thomas. It appears that Rodgers may also be without his top receiver; Adams is doubtful as of this writing. He wasn't able to practice this week, NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reporting that Adams ' chances to suit up against the Saints "doesn't look great." Either way, the Saints defense is very likely better than either of the previous two defenses GB has faced and that unit will be looking to show its better than we saw against the Raiders. Both teams figure to run the ball fairly frequently, possibly more than ever due to the absence of Thomas and hopefully Adams. Look for that to help chew up the clock, keeping the final combined score beneath the generously high total. |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Georgia Tech v. Syracuse OVER 52.5 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 113 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm playing on G-Tech/Syracuse OVER the total. The Yellow Jackets gave up 49 points themselves last week, that game hitting the 70 mark. Syracuse, obviously, isn't UCF. However, I still think that this number will prove to be too low. The reality is that these are probably the two worst tams in the conference. Or, at least, two of the worst. When facing stiffer competition, they're both likely to have trouble scoring at times. However, a game against a fellow "lightweight" provides an opportunity for both offenses to get healthy. These teams have only played twice since 2004. In both cases, G-Tech scored more than 50 points. I say they combine for more than 50 on Saturday afternoon, the final combined score finishing above the relatively low number. |
|||||||
09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 51.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 151 h 37 m | Show |
I'm playing on NO/LV UNDER the total. Brady took some criticism for poor play in his Tampa debut. However, I believe that the Saints defense deserves the credit. This New Orleans defense is loaded and they'll give a lot more QBs trouble than just Brady. Of course, the Saints offense is also dangerous. However, they do mix in a healthy amount of running plays (ran the ball 34x in Week 1) which helps to keep the clock moving. As for the Raiders, you know that they're also going to run the ball with regularity. Yes, they got into a high-scoring game against Carolina. Scoring points figures to be a lot more difficult for them this week though, which means that they're going to have to improve defensively if they want to compete. After scoring 30 in their opener last season, the Saints managed just nine points in their road opener, at LA. That game stayed well below its high O/U line. I believe that this one will also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles UNDER 47 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 119 h 18 m | Show |
I'm playing on LA/Philadelphia UNDER the total. Given the play of both the offenses and defenses in Week 1, I believe that this number is generously high. LA ran the ball 40 times in its opener and scored 20 points in total. The heavy dose of running plays helped to chew up the clock. On the other side of the ball, the Rams new look defense was solid. At least, in the second half. The Cowboys managed only three points and 139 total yards after the break. MacVay noted: McVay said. ''...I like the way our defense settled in the game.'' It should be noted that the Rams stopped the Cowboys twice on fourth down while also stopping the Cowboys nine of 12 times on third down. As for the Eagles, Wentz got sacked eight times last week, while also getting picked off twice. They're going to be anxious to avoid a repeat performance, particularly with Aaron Donald coming to town. The Eagle offense managed only 90 total yards in the second half. While Doug Pederson may claim otherwise, I expect he'll be a little less aggresive (more run plays) to try and protect his QB. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles were arguably stingier than the score indicates. They held Washington to just 239 total yards of offense. The bottom line is that I look for this one to prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns OVER 43 | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Cincinnati/Cleveland OVER the total. With both teams seeing their opening game stay below the number, this O/U line came down from its opener. Sitting below the important number of 44, I believe its providing us with excellent value. Its important not to over-react to one game. Sure, the Browns offense was bad. They'll be better on that side of the ball this week though. As Odell Beckham noted: 'Kind of just toss it up as a mulligan. You have 15 other games, 15 other opportunities. Just keep moving.'' In addition to OBK, Mayfield has a reliable receiving option in Landry while Chubb and Hunt provide capable weapons on the ground. As for the Bengals, Burrow now has a game under his belt and he, too, has weapons at his disposal. A.J. Green, back from injury, called Burrow "unbelievable" and noted: "That guy doesn't flinch. The way he handled himself in that last drive was unbelievable. I haven't seen any rookie the way he handled it after adversity. We got a special one in Joe." As for recent history, the last five games between these Ohio rivals have all produced 44 or more points, the 'over' going 4-0-1. They had scores of 56, 46, 44, 55 and 46. Look for this one to also prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos UNDER 41 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 243 h 19 m | Show |
I'm playing on Tenn/Denver UNDER the total. Both these teams were in the top half of the league, in terms of a rushing attempts, last season. A relatively heavy dose of the run shoud keep the clock moving in this one. Both teams also ranked in the top half of the leauge, in terms of points allowed and in terms of rushing yards allowed, per attempt. Additionally, Denver was one of the worst offensive teams in the league last season. The Broncos ranked 28th in terms of points scored (17.6) and also 28th in terms of total yards (298.6) per game. These teams met last October and the final score was 16-0. Expect another low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 46.5 | 43-34 | Loss | -115 | 215 h 58 m | Show | |
I'm playing on GB/Minnesota UNDER the total. I believe that this number will prove to be too high for this Week 1 divisional battle. These teams were both among the better defensive teams last season. The Vikings ranked #6 in terms of points allowed, the Packers ranked 12th. On offense, the Vikings had the fifth most rushing attempts per game last season. GB was middle of the pack in that area, at #16. The Packers figure to rely more regularly on the run this year. While Rodgers has been an elite QB for a long time, he's nearly 37 and can only do so much with a fairly limited supporting cast. Of course, frequent running plays help to keep the clock moving. Five of the past six meetings, including each of the past three, have finished with 41 or fewer combined points. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 43 | 11-21 | Win | 100 | 215 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on NE/Miami UNDER the total. I believe that this number will prove to be too high for this Week 1 divisional battle. As you know, with Brady having moved on to Tampa, its a new era in New England. Without the former future Hall-Of-Fame QB behind center, Belichick and the Pats are likely to employ a steady dose of the run. Of course, Belichick now has a QB who is also more capable of picking up yards on the ground, when needed. Newtown doesn't necessarily have the best weapons around him though. It helps when you bring back the league's top rated defense. New England allowed just 14.4 ppg last season and only 275.5 ypg. Both were best in the NFL. Fitzpatrick will get the start for the Dolphins. However, its likely only a matter of time before he's replaced by first-round pick Tua Tagovailoa. While Fitzpatrick is familiar with new offensive coordinator Gailey, the rest of the Dolphins are not. Miami knows it needs to be better defensively this season, if it wants to compete with for the division title. I say this one proves lower-scoring than most will be expecting. |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team UNDER 43 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 215 h 57 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Philly/Washington UNDER the total. I believe that this number will prove to be too high for this Week 1 divisional battle. Washington was bad on both sides of the ball last season. The offense managed only 16.6 ppg, dead last in the league. Washington's 275 ypg ranked second last; only the Jets were worse. The Eagles were middle of the pack; their 23.2 ppg ranked 15th. Haskins may improve a little for Washington this season. Thats not saying much though, as he was pretty bad (76.1 passer rating) last year. He doesn't have much to work with, either. They'll do everything they can to try and establish the run, which in turn will keep the clock moving. The Washington defense should be its "strength," as least compared to the offense. The Eagles defense should be stout and this is a chance to get off to a strong start. Expect a relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State UNDER 56.5 | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm playing on Iowa State/UL Lafayette UNDER the total. The Cyclones managed only three first half points in last year's opener. I won't be surprised if they're slow to get going again here. The Cajuns were solid defensively last season. On offense, they're going to try and run the ball regularly. Not only will that help to chew up the clock but the Cyclones defensive line and linebackers are more than capable. Last year's opening final score of 29-26 was deceiving as it went to 3-OT periods. I don't think we'll see OT in this one and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair. |
|||||||
09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 55.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 1490 h 55 m | Show |
I'm playing on KC/Houston UNDER the total. I successfully played on the 'over' (for the first half) when these teams met in the playoffs. So, I'm well aware that they can score points in a hurry. That said, for the opening game of the season, with no preseason, I feel that the the offenses won't be clicking the way that they were in January; the timing is likely to be just a little off. Houston has some new faces on offense. Keep in mind that the Chiefs slowed things down in their SB win and held SF to 20 total points, that game staying below the total. Look for this one to also prove lower-scoring than many will be expecting. |