Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-15-21 | Cubs v. Mets -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets are 12-5 in their past 17 games and 12-2 in their past 14 home games. They also boast a major league-best 2.72 ERA from the rotation, and since David Peterson allowed four runs in 2 2/3 innings a week ago in Baltimore, their rotation has pitched to a stellar 0.89 ERA (three earned runs, 30 1/3 innings) while facing San Diego in a three-game series before facing the Cubs. Taijuan Walker (5-2, 2.07 ERA) started New York's string of impressive starts and will take the mound today. On Wednesday in Baltimore, he allowed one run on five hits in seven innings while striking out nine -- his most since Sept. 1, 2017 when he pitched for the Arizona Diamondbacks. On April 20, he allowed three runs, two hits and six walks in 3 2/3 innings but since that rough start in Chicago he is 5-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his past eight starts. |
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06-14-21 | Rays -115 v. White Sox | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Few starters are as imposing looking as the White Sox’ ’5”, 280 Lance Lynn, or can eat as many innings as Lynn, who almost always goes 6 or 7 and whose team has won 7 of his 11 starts this season. But the Rays’ 6’8”, 225 Tyler Glasnow can challenge Lynn in both departments, having gone 7 or 8 innings in four of his last five starts. Through 13 starts and 84 IP, Glasnow has 117-26 K-BB, a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. Glasnow’s Innings Per Start and Strikeout Rate are better than Lynn’s. His team is 23-10 on the road and has won 23 of its last 28 games. |
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06-14-21 | Cubs +118 v. Mets | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are coming off a three-game sweep of the hated Cardinals to put them in a tie with Milwaukee atop the NL Central. So, is it time to send it in on the Mets, a frequent move against the series-sweeping team in their next game? Eh, well, not so fast, my friends. Can’t do that every single time. Remember ‘Spahn, Sain and pray for rain?’ The Mets have, ‘Degrom, Stroman, W alker and… Ahhhh! David Peterson!!! We need 11 runs!!’ Peterson, in his second MLB season, is the “Which Doesn’t Belong and Why” in the Mets’ rotation, with a 6.32 ERA and 1.51 WHIP after 11 starts. Peterson lasted 3 1/3 innings against the Cubs in Wrigley Field back on April 21 in a 16-4 loss. He exits a 10-3 loss in Baltimore last week in which he went 2 2/3 innings, after failing to get out of the first inning in a 7-6 loss in Arizona, a team that can’t buy a win lately. Jake Arrieta may not be Mr. No Hitter anymore, but we’re inclined to give the 12-season veteran and 2015 NL Cy Young Award winner the benefit of the doubt when teamed with the Cubs’ bullpen (2.59 ERA). |
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06-13-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -120 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The streaking Chicago Cubs bid to complete a three-game sweep tonight when they host the reeling St. Louis Cardinals. The Cubs posted an 8-5 win over the Cardinals on Friday and a 7-2 victory the following day to improve to 23-10 at Wrigley Field. Chicago has won five of its last six games to remain tied with the Milwaukee Brewers atop the National League Central. St. Louis has lost 10 of its last 12 games to fall back to .500 for the first time since April 28. Cardinals starting pitcher Carlos Martinez (3-6, 6.21) will try to get his season back on track after allowing 15 runs in 4 2/3 innings over his last two starts. Back on May 3, Martinez threw eight scoreless innings against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Since then, Martinez has failed to pitch deeper than the sixth inning in any start. His ERA in his last five starts is 9.97 ERA. He is 4-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 37 career appearances (17 starts) against the Cubs. |
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06-13-21 | Angels -130 v. Diamondbacks | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting rid of the dead wood who goes by the name of Albert Pujols, after being free of Mike Trout and his overrated presence, has helped to produce a winning record for the Angels during this time. Everyone knows that they mostly lost with those two in the lineup every day. Guys are getting opportunities and taking advantage. Pitchers are pitching better since easily distracted pitching coach Mickey Callaway got fired. One of those guys was not Alex Cobb yesterday. He stunk for us. But the Angels won the game because the longer the game goes, the less chance Arizona has of winning it. They are now 11-18 in their home park and ask a pitcher with no real Major League cachet — 13 hits, 8 walks and 13 runs given up in 11 2/3 innings in his last three starts — to help put smiles back onto their faces after they’ve lost 26 of their last 29 games. |
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06-13-21 | Royals v. A's -189 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chris Bassitt Day has once again rolled around and although the number is higher than anyone would like it to be, we’ve lost track of how many consecutive Bassitt starts have been winners for us, including the one that was greater than a $2.00 to 1 job. Bassitt 4-hit Arizona over 7 innings in his last start. He now has an 86-18 K-BB in 81 innings, a 3.44 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The Royals are asking a guy who wasn’t in their original starting rotation plans, who has allowed 14 hits and 10 runs in 8 1/3 innings in his last two starts — including 5 home runs — plus 4 walks, to outduel Bassitt, or at least hold things down before a bullpen duel. If Kris Bubic can do that, more power to him and the Royals. |
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06-13-21 | Astros -135 v. Twins | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Framber Valdez returns to the site of one the biggest wins of his young pitching career this afternoon when the Houston Astros face the Minnesota Twins in the rubber game of their three-game series in Minneapolis. Valdez (2-0, 1.47 ERA) was the winning pitcher in Game 1 of the 2020 American League Wild Card Series on Sept. 29 at Target Field when he replaced starter Zack Greinke and threw five innings of shutout relief in a 4-1 victory. The left-hander allowed just two hits and walked two while striking out five. Valdez is 1-0 with a 1.86 ERA in four career regular-season performances (one start) against Minnesota. The Twins, who are coming off a 5-2 victory on Saturday night, will counter with right-hander Michael Pineda (3-3, 3.46). Pineda is 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA in nine career starts against the Astros. |
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06-13-21 | Yankees +106 v. Phillies | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies have lost four of Aaron Nola’s last four starts and he has allowed more hits than innings pitched in the last two. Since a complete-game shutout on April 18, Nola’s ERA is 4.97. His overall ERA of 4.06 and WHIP of 1.21 are both higher than last season’s 3.28 and 1.08. The Yankees’ Domingo German: 3.12 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, as the underdog backed by the better bullpen. |
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06-12-21 | Astros -105 v. Twins | 2-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twins starter, Berrios is 2-3 with an unsightly 6.43 ERA in five career starts against Houston. Alex Bregman is 4-for-7 with a homer against Berrios while Brantley is just 2-for-15. Astros right-hander Luis Garcia (5-3, 2.75) will be looking to win his sixth consecutive start. The 24-year-old Garcia has compiled a 1.86 ERA during the stretch while giving up five or fewer hits in each outing. He has served up just two homers in 29 innings over his past five starts after allowing six in his first 30 frames of the season. Garcia matched his career-high of eight strikeouts while beating the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. He gave up one run, three hits and walked two. |
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06-12-21 | Angels -114 v. Diamondbacks | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alex Cobb came off the injured list to give up 4 hits in 5 innings during a 7-1 win vs. the Twins. The Angels gave him 9 days between starts and he responded by going 7 innings and allowing only 3 hits, 0 runs in a 4-0 win at Oakland. They gave him 7 days in between that and the next start, and he went 7 innings again, allowing only 3 hits in another win. They’ve given him another 7 days before this. Hey, when something works, you stick with it, especially when it’s for a team like the Angels where nothing usually works. Speaking of teams where nothing works, the Diamondbacks have sunk to MLB’s worst winning percentage (20-44, .313). Aside from their current road losing streak of 19 games, they are 11-17 in their home park. The Angels were 18-22 when Mike Trout got hurt. They are 1 game over .500 since. He is an overrated, analytics clown-fan player whose team has habitually lost a lot when he plays. All of those people would have figured the Angels to have an Arizona-like record with Trout out. Nope. Hasn’t happened. L.A. also caught a break when pitching coach Mickey Callaway was fired, not for baseball reasons. Team ERA has dropped from 5.20 to 4.11 since he got the boot. |
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06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +121 | 1-4 | Win | 121 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stroman (5-4, 2.41 ERA) is slated to oppose Joe Musgrove (4-5, 2.33) in a battle of right-handers. Stroman entered Friday with the 10th-best ERA in the NL while pitching at least six innings in each of his past six starts and in nine of 12 starts overall. Stroman earned the win against the Padres last Sunday when he allowed an unearned run over 6 2/3 innings in the Mets' 6-2 victory. Stroman is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three career starts against the Padres. Musgrove is 1-3 with a 6.11 ERA in four games (three starts) against the Mets. |
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06-11-21 | Astros -151 v. Twins | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded, gradually less-than-mediocre righthander called Matt Shoemaker is being sent back to the mound by the Twins following his 1/3 of an inning, 6-hit, 2-walk, 9-run start against the Royals a week ago, probably as Twins management collectively puts their hands together and bows their heads in solemn prayer that he manages 5 or 6 innings of 3-run ball on hard-hit line drives right at their fielders, and that some other team will be fooled into accepting him in a trade before the All-Star break. Shoemaker has been the gift that keeps giving — thus far with the ability to win only against last-place opponents — and tonight he faces the lineup with MLB’s highest team batting average, .271, which averages the MLB-high 5.42 runs per game (5.62 on the road, more than at home). His ERA is up to 7.28, his WHIP 1.58, his K-BB ratio a very low 1.6 to 1. If the Astros change from Jose Urquidy (3.76 ERA, 1.07 WHIP), we wouldn’t change from this selection. |
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06-11-21 | Braves -115 v. Marlins | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves will start Charlie Morton (5-2, 4.21 ERA) against Miami's Sandy Alcantara (3-5, 3.30 ERA) in a battle of right-handers. Morton will be looking for his fourth straight win. In his past four starts, he has posted a 2.74 ERA. Historically, Morton has a winning record against the Marlins -- 7-4 with a 4.04 ERA in 14 starts. He has been even better in Miami, going 3-1 with a 3.47 ERA in four starts at Marlins Park. |
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06-11-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs -134 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo (0-2, 5.25) is still trying to settle into his team's injury-depleted rotation. After opening his season with a scoreless 4 2/3-inning relief stint, he has posted a 6.52 ERA in five starts. Oviedo lasted just 65 pitches in his most recent start, a 5-2 loss to the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, but he didn't figure in the decision. He allowed two runs on three hits and three walks, one intentional. In two career starts against the Cubs, Oviedo is 0-1 with a 4.66 ERA. Ian Happ (2-for-3, two walks, double, triple), Javier Baez (2-for-5), Kris Bryant (1-for-3) and Willson Contreras (1-for-4, walk, two RBIs) have hit well against him. |
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06-10-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +105 | 2-5 | Win | 105 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Dallas Keuchel (4-1, 4.25 ERA) of the White Sox is set to make his 13th start of the season. He has earned victories in three of his past five outings, and he pitched well his last time out despite earning a no-decision as he limited the Detroit Tigers to two runs (one earned) on five hits in six innings last Friday. Keuchel has 94 career victories, four of which have come against the Blue Jays in his career. He is 4-0 with a 4.78 ERA in six starts against Toronto while walking 15 and striking out 27 in 37 2/3 innings. The Blue Jays will counter with Hyun Jin Ryu (5-3, 3.23 ERA), who has a terrific 59-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 64 innings this season. But Ryu is hoping to bounce back from his worst outing of the season, one in which he surrendered six runs on seven hits in 5 2/3 innings in a loss to the Houston Astros last Friday. |
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06-10-21 | Astros +103 v. Red Sox | 8-12 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros whacked Eduardo Rodriguez around in Houston ten days ago — 7 hits, 2 walks, 6 runs in 4 2/3 innings. He recovered a little bit against the Yankees five days later but the Yankees often specialize in hitting air with their bats (hopefully not tonight, see below). With their performances against Rodriguez on May 31, Houston batters Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa now have Batting Averages Against him of .400, .333, .667. Zack Greinke didn’t pitch against the Astros in their series in Houston, won 3-1 by Houston, who is now 2-0 in this series. Although the Red Sox are a winning team attempting to avoid being swept in a Fenway Park series, the guy starting against them has gone 8, 8 and 9 innings in three of his last four starts, can help put his team into a first-place tie with Oakland in the AL West if they win (or stay 1 game behind if Oakland wins later tonight), and has had one extra day of rest since going the distance in the Astros’ 13-1 win at Toronto on June 4, where he threw 102 pitches. |
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06-10-21 | Braves v. Phillies -132 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies will now look to capture the three-game set when they host the Braves on this afternoon. Atlanta took the opener 9-5 on Tuesday. Philadelphia will send Zack Wheeler to the mound for his 13th start of the season Thursday, and he is enjoying a strong campaign. Wheeler (4-3, 2.51 ERA) has recorded 100 strikeouts in 82 1/3 innings in 2021. In his past six starts, he is 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA. The Braves hope Ian Anderson (4-3, 3.64 ERA) can be the guy to put them back on track after the walk-off defeat ended their three-game winning streak. However, Anderson has allowed eight runs in a combined 8 1/3 innings while losing each of his past two starts. In three career starts against the Phillies, Anderson is 0-0 with a 4.41 ERA. |
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06-10-21 | Brewers -113 v. Reds | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units One of the hottest pitchers on one of the hottest teams in baseball will try to lead his team to another series victory in the rubber game of a three-game series when the Milwaukee Brewers take on the host Cincinnati Reds on this afternoon. In his last start, the Brewers' Freddy Peralta (6-1, 2.25 ERA) took a no-hitter into the eighth inning at home against Arizona on Friday before yielding a hit to Nick Ahmed with one out. The Brewers closed out a combined one-hitter in a 5-1 win on Peralta's 25th birthday. Pitching like a team ace, Milwaukee is 9-3 in Peralta's 12 starts, including six quality starts. Opponents are batting just .133 (29-for-218, six home runs) with 92 strikeouts in 64 innings. Peralta fell just an out short of qualifying for the win in a 9-4 victory over the Reds on May 23 in Cincinnati. Lifetime, Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 11 appearances (five starts) against Cincinnati. |
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06-09-21 | Blue Jays v. White Sox -149 | 6-2 | Loss | -149 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox won last night's series opener, the 8th victory in their last 11 (+$340). They are now 15-4 in night games at home (+$855) and they have ace right-hander Lance Lynn on the mound this evening (1.38 ERA in 10 starts). He's led Chicago to wins in 6 of 7 appearances at Guaranteed Rate Field (+$445). Toronto has good numbers vs. NL teams, but they have lost money vs. AL teams (-$585), so expect we'll lay the price on the home favorite. |
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06-09-21 | Mariners v. Tigers -129 | 9-6 | Loss | -129 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Big Cat, Casey Mize (wait, that was Johnny!), has made seven straight quality starts for the Tigers. He threw 28 innings for them last season as a rookie and didn’t accomplish much, but after 64 IP this season — still a rookie — has a 3.34 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He beat the Mariners 4-1 in Seattle on May 17, with 7 2/3 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball. The Mariners have the fewest hits of all the teams in Major League Baseball. They average only 6.6 per game and a mere 5.87 hits per game on the road. Their starter, Chris Flexen, has a 2.67 ERA in home starts but 8.10 ERA on the road. The reasons don’t jump out at anyone but it is what it is, is it not? Opponents are hitting .372 against Flexen away from Mariners Field, or whatever the heck they call their home ballpark in 2021. PNC, maybe? No, that’s not it. Maybe it’s T-Mobile. Ah, who cares? |
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06-09-21 | Mets -127 v. Orioles | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Mets’ “C” lineup chased Matt Harvey at Citi Field after 4 1/3 innings on May 12, with 8 hits and 7 runs. They had him on the ropes as early as the second inning. New York’s lineup isn’t at full strength just yet but it’s at least back to “B” level. The Orioles wised up with Harvey in his last start, allowing him to pitch only 3 innings so that he could escape with only giving up 2 hits and 1 run. They were playing the seriously losing Twins that night and he was matched against Randy Dobnak (6.19 ERA, 1.44 WHIP), so they beat us. We want our money back. Tonight, as Harvey’s Exit Tour of the Major Leagues continues, he is matched against an opponent with a winning record who starts Taijuan Walker (2.17 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). The Orioles who have faced Walker when he was with Seattle have 31 plate appearances with only 6 hits, 1 for extra bases. |
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06-08-21 | Diamondbacks v. A's -211 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Part of our routine is to eagerly await Chris Bassitt’s turn and check the odds, which have been underdog, small favorite, or at most mid-range favorite during his current run of five straight A’s/Bassitt winners for us. Tonight, he is a prohibitive favorite, at a number we rarely accept. We’ve gone >$2.00 one time this season, when it was against Matt Harvey and Baltimore with the White Sox. It worked. When it doesn’t, you feel bad. Hopefully it works tonight. The D-Backs have lost 17 consecutive road games. It’s pretty much the kiss of death to embrace our winning streaking pitcher against this uber-losing streaking visitor, whose relatively lame attempt at countering and snapping their run of road futility includes starting a guy who has allowed 11 hits (4 home runs), 5 walks and 9 runs in his two starts, which totaled 8 2/3 innings. But here we go. |
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06-08-21 | Giants v. Rangers +128 | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rangers haven’t won a road game since Moby Dick was a minnow but tonight they’re playing home. They’ve managed to do okay when the other team starts a left-handed pitcher, although we’re not sure the correlation is exactly, “Rangers are great vs. lefties!” In fact, they got only 1 run and 4 hits against the Giants’ lefty Alex Wood in a 3-1 loss at San Francisco on May 10. But it’s a long season and pitching form doesn’t always hold from month to month. Wood had been doing great, but in his last start of May and first start of June he gave up a total of 11 runs, almost twice as many as he’d allowed in his five previous starts combined. The Giants’ lineup to be faced by Rangers’ righty Jordan Lyles will suddenly be without third baseman Evan Longoria, who leads the visitor with a .280 batting average and 45 hits, and is second with 30 RBIs. A Rangers team 15 games below .500 is nevertheless 6-6 when Lyles starts, 3-0 last three in this park against the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox. |
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06-07-21 | Marlins +133 v. Red Sox | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s the ol’ “We Swept the archrival, American League East rival Yankees over the Weekend at Yankee Stadium, now we come home to lose an Interleague game to the Marlins” situation. Although it’s not football with the traditional letdowns, this is one of the least important of the 162 games on the Red Sox regular season schedule. For one thing, aside from being Interleague it’s a stand-alone single game, a rainout makeup from earlier in the season. They will host the fellow contender Houston Astros, then fellow contender division-rival Toronto Blue Jays, in the next seven games after this, all of them here at Fenway. They pretty much exhausted the “A” group to beat the Yankees, including five relievers last night in a 3:49 game that preceded a flight home and 5:10 pm, ET first pitch today. The urgency check-mark is stronger for Miami, who ended a nine game losing streak yesterday. Corey Dickerson, Sandy Leon, Starling Marte and Sierra Magneuris are 4-for-7, 2-for-4, 2-for-6 and 2-for-3 against Nick Pivetta in their very limited exposure to him. Not bad, eh? Pivetta is the only Red Sox player to have hit against Miami’s Pablo Lopez, who enters in fine form with a 2.85 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 68-19 K-BB in 67 innings pitched. |
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06-06-21 | Mets +145 v. Padres | 6-2 | Win | 145 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets got on the board against the Padres behind a dominant Jacob deGrom last evening, and they have another strong right-hander set to pitch today as they look to escape Petco Park with a split. Marcus Stroman checks in with a 2.66 ERA in his 11 starts, and he's backed by a team that is now 9-4 (+$415) vs. righties in day games. New York has won 7 of its last 10 (+$380) so we'll grab the generous underdog price on the visitor in this one. |
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06-06-21 | A's v. Rockies -110 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Gotta get up off the mat and go with the home team using its best pitcher in an attempt to avoid being swept in a series in their own ballpark. The opponent sends a virtual rookie to the mound in the fifth start of his Major League career, first in Coors Field, which is a very different environment than James Kapreilan’s home park, and also very different from the “pitcher’s ballpark” in Seattle, where he just got roughed up for 5 hits and 4 runs in a loss to the Mariners. He has a nice-looking 2.95 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, but it’s early and he still has some professional dues to pay, the initiation to Coors Field that every young pitcher must endure before becoming a man. Just ask German Marquez, who had 4.59 and 4.74 Coors Field ERAs in his first two seasons as a Colorado starter, but today is coming off 7 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball, and 7 innings of 4-hit shutout ball in his last two home starts. |
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06-06-21 | Astros +106 v. Blue Jays | 6-3 | Win | 106 | 2 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Steven Matz beat the Yankees near his hometown two starts ago with a 10-0 K-BB game and then, naturally, gave up 4 runs in 5 innings to the Indians in his next start. He’s peaked! Well, maybe not, but the pumped up outing in Yankee Stadium will be tough to duplicate for a guy who’s been pitching better, for a longer stretch, than he ever did with the Mets. The Blue Jays opened this season with four straight wins in Matz starts but are merely 2-5 since. Today it’s the Astros who start a guy they’ve won four in a row behind. Luis Garcia is off quality-start wins against Boston and the Dodgers in which he had 6-1 and 7-1 K-BBs, didn’t allow a home run. And this has come after they’d lost his first six starts! Long season, man. Ebbs and flows. Through it all, his 2.89 ERA and 1.02 WHIP look pretty good and his teammates are hitting .281 against lefthanded pitchers (Matz being a lefty), highest such average in MLB. |
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06-05-21 | Mets -102 v. Padres | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres prevailed over the Mets again last night but they only managed two runs in victory, and tonight they'll face the premier pitcher in MLB. Jacob deGrom checks in with a stellar 0.71 ERA in his eight starts. San Diego is in the red vs. right-handers (-$215 overall) and they are only 5-5 in their last 10. The Mets are 21-15 vs. righties in 2021 (+$215) so we'll lay the short price on the visitor this evening at Petco Park. |
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06-05-21 | A's v. Rockies +117 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Results for the first-place Oakland A’s in the last five starts made by left-hander Cole Irvin: L, L, L, L, L. He’s allowed 5, 4, 4 runs in the last three, isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, and must now give it a go in Coors Field, where scoreboard operators often suffer from fatigue. The Rockies… they get shut out in doubleheaders on the road, then come home to score 10 runs in games… or, give up 10 or somewhere in that neighborhood. But they are 19-13 home, so they’ve tended to out-score the other sides within their friendly confines. The Rockies’ home-road split in scoring runs is 5.94 per game home (round that up to 6) and 2.42 on the road. Quite a difference, eh? They tend to hit lefties better than righties. If their own lefty, Kyle Freeland, does as well as we think he can, there is always the Rockies’ bullpen to help the score approach and exceed the necessary number while making things more interesting than they need to be in victory. |
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06-05-21 | Dodgers -120 v. Braves | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Here’s a kiss of death “stat” if there ever was one, courtesy of the Associated Press, a mostly useless media outlet: “LA ace Clayton Kershaw is unbeaten in 11 career regular season starts against the Braves, 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA.” Send it in on the Braves and Charlie Morton, right? Well, hopefully not. Kershaw is a very good pitcher at much lower odds than usual, on a winning team, against an opponent three games under .500. Kershaw is also coming off a bad start against the Giants, and gave the Braves some hope in the post-season last year when Atlanta beat him 10-2 in their playoff series. Naturally, the Associated Press left that game off Kershaw’s “record” against the Braves because it didn’t fit their “unbeaten in career” story line. That’s what the media does. Anyway, enough with the American cultural lesson. Given that an ace pitcher had a bad game in this ballpark the last time he was here, and a bad game in his last outing, we’ll expect a bounce-back. Dodgers’ pen > Braves’ pen. |
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06-04-21 | Mets +170 v. Padres | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Mets have some bats back in the lineup who were out for a while. Their long string of games scoring 4 runs or fewer came to an end as they returned. They’ve scored 13, 6, 5, 7 and 3 in their last five games, which represents drastic improvement. Tonight’s starter, Joey Lucchesi, cannot exert any New York-based Lucchese crime family influence over the outcome because that’s not his family. However, he was a Padre for three seasons until they traded him to the Mets in the offseason, when then the organization got all, “We gotta go out and get elite lefty Blake Snell, who won a Cy Young Award and pitched in the World Series! We don’t need this lefty Lucchesi!” San Diego, with a 35-23 record and Run Differential of +76, nevertheless has lost four of Snell’s last five starts, beating only road-inept Colorado at home in that span. San Diego is only 4-7 overall in Snell’s starts for them. It’s more like Blake Smell, with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, right? So, this is Lucchesi’s big night. He pitched only 5 innings for the Padres in 2020 but in his last full season in their rotation, 2019, he had a 2.56 ERA in 12 starts at Petco Park, where opposing batters hit only .183 against him. |
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06-04-21 | Twins v. Royals -117 | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker, who basically only beats the Tigers but also managed to beat the Orioles — another team duking it out for last-place in its division — starts for the American League Central division’s last-place Twins. The Royals are 6 games better than the Tigers, about 13 games better than Baltimore, and they just beat Shoemaker 6-3 in Minnesota on Sunday, when he gave the home fans and backers 4 1/3 innings of 6-hit, 5-run ball for their money when matched against tonight’s Royals starter, Brad Keller. Coming off a great 2020, Keller had an atrocious April. But he improved in May and after 11 starts, has a 5-4 Won-Loss record. KC has won his last four starts. His overall ERA and WHIP of 5.68 and 1.74 are not pretty but the bad April is factored in there, when his ERA was 9.00. |
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06-02-21 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -155 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units You don’t want to overreact after just one MLB start, but before the rest of the sporting world discovers Blue Jays rookie Alek Manoah, maybe we should be on him at relatively reasonable numbers. Debuting him in Yankee Stadium against the Yankees (well, who else would they be facing in that ballpark? Duh!) was certainly a sign of confidence in the kid and he did not disappoint |
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06-02-21 | Twins -135 v. Orioles | 3-6 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles snapped a 14-game losing streak last night, in which the team also ended a 16-game losing streak against the Twins. But with Matt Harvey starting for them tonight, they should revert to typical form and avoid a winning streak, something they haven’t had since they won three in a row April 29-May 1. Harvey’s Exit Tour of the Major Leagues is unique in the sense that as a starter, he gives cameo performances, pitching 1/3 of a game, usually less than half, sometimes as little as 1 2/3 innings. He has allowed 5, 6, 6, 7, 4 runs in his last five starts, all in less than 5 innings of work, on 5, 9, 7, 8 and 4 hits. Baltimore has lost all five games. Yet he keeps coming back for more abuse, imagining that there might be an opposing lineup within MLB that he can get through. He can dream, can’t he? |
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06-02-21 | Rays +116 v. Yankees | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees pulled out an 11th inning victory last night, but their offense woes continued, as they managed a mere six hits in 11 innings. The surging Rays have won 16 of their last 18 (+$1100 overall in 2021) and they have a solid left-hander in Shane McClanahan, who has been effective in his six starts (+$415), with a 0.90 ERA in his last two). New York averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties (-$595), so take the the visiting underdog in the Bronx this evening. |
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06-01-21 | A's -147 v. Mariners | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’ve waited another five days for Chris Bassitt to come back to us, and will ya’ look at that, here he is. It would be just our bad luck (for example, Jack Flaherty got injured and left with a 3-2 lead last night) for the guy to bounce down from his complete-game, 2-hit shutout of the Angels for us last Thursday. But Bassitt has won four in a row for us and is facing batters who, collectively, have hit .188 against him with a measly .211 Slugging Percentage. The Mariners have a -42 Run Differential and average only 6.42 hits per game, fewest in MLB. Only the Mets have more guys unavailable due to injury than the Mariners, and their starter, Marco Gonzales, isn’t expected to go more than 3 or 4 innings making his first start off the injured list after not pitching in a game for five weeks. |
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06-01-21 | Red Sox +125 v. Astros | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fickle fellows, aren’t we? All over the Astros against the Red Sox last night for a win, but switching to Boston tonight despite Luis Garcia’s recent mighty fine outings for Houston, which included 6 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball against the formidable Dodgers in his last start. But he threw 100 pitches, his most of the season, which would make it the most Garcia has ever thrown in a Major League game because he didn’t exceed 86 pitches in any outing as a rookie last year. The Astros faced an obviously down trending lefty last night when they pounded Eduardo Rodriguez. Relatively steady righthander Garrett Richards hasn’t allowed a home run in his last three starts, only 3 this season, and is better leverage. |
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06-01-21 | Nationals +124 v. Braves | 11-6 | Win | 124 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals look to snap a five game losing streak with Stephen Strasburg on the mound. He's looked better lately (2.61 ERA in his last two starts) and he's taking on an Atlanta team that has posted heavy losses at home in 2021 (-$785). Max Fried is 0-3 in home night games (-$440, 5.06 ERA) and Washington does score more vs. lefthanders (4.5 per game). Underdog price on the visitor looks too good to pass up. |
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06-01-21 | Rays -111 v. Yankees | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 10 units After opening the series with soft-tossing left-hander Rich Hill, hard-thrower Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA) starts for Tampa Bay. On Wednesday, he allowed three hits in eight innings to go along with 11 strikeouts against the Kansas City Royals. Glasnow is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, including 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in New York. |
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05-31-21 | Mets -164 v. Diamondbacks | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Arizona Diamondbacks just snapped their 13-game losing streak, but they now face the daunting task of putting together another win against the major league's top pitcher, Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets. The two-time Cy Young Award winner leads the majors with a 0.80 ERA, allowing only four earned runs in 45 innings spanning seven starts. He also has 74 strikeouts to go with only seven walks. He struck out nine in a successful return from the injured list last Tuesday in a 3-1 victory over the visiting Colorado Rockies. He has never lost to Arizona, compiling a 4-0 record and 1.65 ERA in five career starts against the Diamondbacks. Arizona will counter with right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 4.84 ERA). Kelly has allowed only 16 earned runs in his past seven starts (41 2/3 innings) and compiled 42 strikeouts with 12 walks in that span. He is 1-2 with a 2.79 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. He went 5 2/3 innings at New York on May 8 in a 4-2 loss. He allowed only three hits and struck out six but he also walked five batters. |
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05-31-21 | Cardinals +170 v. Dodgers | 4-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals lost their first game out of 10 Jack Flaherty starts six days ago at the White Sox. It was a strange first two innings. The White Sox scored their first run on a groundout to Flaherty, their second run on two errors on one play. In the second inning, they scored on a single, a bases loaded walk, a wild pitch. It’s not like they hammered Flaherty around to jump out to their first 5 runs in an 8-3 game. We’ll take a mulligan with Flaherty as an even larger underdog this time, matched against L.A. ace Trevor Bauer. Dodgers who have faced Flaherty are 4-for-38 against him, all singles, 18-3 K-BB. Bauer has excellent numbers: 2.07 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 91-22 K-BB in 69 2/3 innings pitched. But the Dodgers are only 5-6 in his starts. Cardinals who have faced him are 8-for-22 (.363). |
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05-31-21 | A's -123 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -123 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today's pitching matchup will feature a pair of rookies, James Kaprielian (2-0, 1.53 ERA) of Oakland and Logan Gilbert (0-2, 7.59 ERA) of Seattle. The 27-year-old Kaprielian made just two relief appearances in 2020 (3.2 IP) but in three starts here in 2021 (his first major-league start came May 12 at Boston), he's 2-0 (team is 3-0) with a 1.53 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 23-8 KW ratio and a .156 BAA. Gilbert's a 24-year-old rookie who has also made three starts in 2021. He struggled badly in his first two starts (6.2 IP / 7 ERs allowed) but had his best outing last week at Oakland, giving up two runs on four hits over four innings (settled for a no-decision in Seattle's 4-3 win). However, Logan's numbers hardly match Kaprielian's numbers (see above), as he owns a 7.59 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and a .283 BAA. |
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05-31-21 | Red Sox v. Astros +104 | 2-11 | Win | 104 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units “I’m very excited. I’m very healthy right now. Very anxious to do my best and help us win tomorrow.” So said Astros’ righty Jose Urquidy yesterday, one day before returning from the injured list, where he’s been since exiting in the fourth inning on May 12. Hey, thanks for the heads-up, Jose! Urquidy is 3-0 with a 1.52 ERA in his last four starts, with just 2 BBs and 4 ER allowed on 15 hits in 23 2/3 innings. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed more hits than innings pitched in each of his last five starts, in which the Red Sox — a 32-20 team — are 1-4. Ah, the weak link, eh? Houston’s .283 team batting average against left-handed pitchers is MLB’s highest such number. Given that it has been produced with the most at-bats against lefties (763, vs. 658 for the next most frequent lefty-facers), it’s a more valid stat than most. Also, you don’t even need a calculator to figure that their 14-for-42 lifetime against Rodriguez equals .333. |
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05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -148 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Giants plan to send veteran right-hander Johnny Cueto to the mound against the Angels. Cueto (3-1, 3.86 ERA) has faced the Angels only four times in his 14-year major league career, but is 3-0 against them with a 1.35 ERA. Cueto faced the Angels last Aug. 19 in Anaheim and earned the win after allowing two runs and four hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 7-2 victory. The Angels plan to send right-hander Dylan Bundy to the mound for the series opener. Bundy (0-5, 6.50) has struggled most of the season. He pitched a season-low 2 1/3 innings in his last outing against Oakland, allowing four runs and five hits. The Angels bailed him out from another loss by scoring five runs over the sixth through eighth innings in the 6-5 win. Bundy faced the Giants in August as well and surrendered a leadoff homer to Mike Yastrzemski and a two-run shot to Pablo Sandoval in the second before leaving after four innings in the 8-2 loss. |
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05-30-21 | Giants +163 v. Dodgers | 5-4 | Win | 163 | 6 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Compared to Kershaw, Gausman has limited experience against his opponent Sunday. He is 0-2 with a 4.44 ERA lifetime against the Dodgers, with four of his five meetings against them over the past two seasons as a member of the Giants. Gausman has not given up more than one earned run in any of his past seven starts and has delivered consecutive scoreless outings against the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. San Francisco is 7-3 in Gausman's 10 starts this season. The Giants also got some help off the injured list with first baseman Wilmer Flores activated Saturday following a strained right hamstring. Flores had three hits and scored two runs. His return was welcome news after both Brandon Belt and Darin Ruf went on the IL in advance of the current series. |
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05-30-21 | Royals +121 v. Twins | 6-3 | Win | 121 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker starts for the Twins. He has beaten Detroit and Baltimore. Big whoop. He beat us last time out against the Orioles but we don’t fear him today against the Royals, who got 8 hits and 9 runs against Shoemaker in 3 1/3 innings on May 1. The Royals very recently got starting shortstop Adalberto Mondesi back from the injured |
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05-30-21 | Phillies +121 v. Rays | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rays recently won 11 straight games before the streak was snapped in that 2-1 loss to Keller and KC five days ago. After that game, their manager pledged to start and extend another winning streak and by golly, they did. Tampa has won three straight. But they will start a four-game series tomorrow in Yankee Stadium. They lead the Red Sox by a half-game, the Yankees by 3.5 games, in the American League East. With Colin McHugh opening, it’s obvious that they’re setting up the rotation to be at its strongest for the intra-division series against the hated division rival, as opposed to today’s Interleague affair. McHugh last appeared in the ninth inning of Thursday’s 7-2 win vs. the Royals. Today, it’s the first inning. Two appearances ago, it was the 7th and 8th innings in a 14-8 win. There is no real routine with him, and with the Yankees coming up, the relief choices may not be the “A” team. Zach Eflin is no superstar but you have to feel that a guy whose innings pitched in 10 starts are: 7, 6, 7, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 2/3, 6, 6 and 6 deserves some love from the baseball gods with a decent 3.84 ERA but a mere 2-4 W/L record to show for it. |
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05-30-21 | Brewers +104 v. Nationals | 3-0 | Win | 104 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Woodruff (3-2, 1.41 ERA) owns a 1.05 ERA over his last nine starts for the Brewers, who have won six of their last eight. Milwaukee recorded a doubleheader sweep of the Nationals on Saturday, winning the first game 4-1 before scoring four runs in the sixth inning to win the nightcap 6-2. Washington has lost four of its last five games, and a lack of timely hitting has been the primary culprit. The frustration continued to simmer early in the first game Saturday, when star outfielder Juan Soto grounded into a double play with one out and two runners on in the third inning and the Nationals already trailing 4-0. |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -109 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mariners took the first two games from the Rangers at T-Mobile and they look like a solid value tonight. Justin Dunn comes in with a 3.41 ERA in eight outings, and he'll be facing a Texas team that is only 10-24 when facing right-handers (-$950). Seattle has had a profitable season vs. righties so far (+$520) so we'll lay the short price on the home team as they attempt to make it three in a row. |
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05-29-21 | Rockies -115 v. Pirates | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We intended to go against Mitch Keller yesterday so after the rainout why not do it again today despite the pitching change? Yes, it’s the ultimate contrarian wise-guy move to be backing a 3-20 road team in both games of a double-header on the road. But the other side is the Pirates, so... Keller’s below par record was detailed yesterday, including zero quality starts out of nine. Austin Gomber just gave the Rockies 8 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball at the Mets in a 3-2 win. If there’s a team as weak, or weaker than the Mets offensively in the National League, it’s Pittsburgh. |
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05-29-21 | Orioles v. White Sox -202 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have lost 10 straight games and it’s Matt Harvey’s turn to start, against the first-place team in the American League Central Division. The most recent stop on Harvey’s Exit Tour of MLB was in Washington on Sunday, a light-hitting lineup that nevertheless got 9 hits and 6 runs against him in 4 2/3 innings. Before that, he lasted only 1 2/3 innings vs. Tampa, giving up 7 hits and 6 runs. The Mets — who can’t score more than 4 runs against any combination of pitchers on any opponent — nevertheless jumped on Harvey for 8 hits and 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings before that. It’s out of character for us to use a $2.00 favorite and apologize in advance if it doesn’t work out. But steady veteran lefty Dallas Keuchel would really have to throw in a terrible outing to blow this, with three regulars out injured in an already light-hitting Orioles lineup. |
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05-29-21 | Rockies +122 v. Pirates | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Play of the Day The Rockies are 3-20 away from Coors Field. Godawful, eh? But they’ll win more than three games on the road. Hopefully that milestone is reached tonight in Pittsburgh, the National League’s last-place team with MLB’s worst Run Differential (-84). The Pirates average only 3.64 runs per game in their home park, where they are 8-14. If you can’t win on the road, it helps to be facing a bad host, right? Jon Gray has been the Rockies’ best starter with a 1.18 WHIP. The Pirates he’s faced are just 6-for-32 against him, 13-1 K-BB, Slugging Percentage of .157. Early listings have the Pirates switching Mitch Keller to Game 2 against Austin Gomber, with J.T. Brubaker to oppose Gray. Fine with us. Brubaker has allowed 15 hits and 12 runs in his last two starts, which totaled 11 innings. Among the 15 hits were 4 home runs. Yesterday’s rainout gave the Colorado bullpen a break after a double-header against the Mets the previous day. |
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05-28-21 | Rangers +113 v. Mariners | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justus Sheffield gave up 10 hits and 7 runs to the Rangers in Texas on May 9. The southpaw has a 5.11 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, both higher than last season’s 3.58 and 1.30. The Rangers have been hitting lefties pretty well this season, managing to win 12 of 18 games when the opponent starts one (they’re 10-24 when the opponent starts a righty, like last night, when Seattle’s Chris Flexen shut ‘em out.) Jordan Lyles doesn’t get anyone excited to get out of the bed and on the phone with The Man, that’s for sure. But the Rangers have won four of his last five starts, three of them against the Red Sox, Yankees and Astros. |
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05-27-21 | Angels v. A's -144 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s our man Chris Bassitt. After three straight road wins for us at Boston, Minnesota and the Angels, he turns around to face the L.A. lineup again, this time in his home park. He and his teammates beat the Angels 6-2 five days ago with Bassitt hounding them through 7 2/3 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball, 8-1 K-BB. In his last five starts, four of them Oakland wins, Bassitt has a 38-4 K-BB. Yow. No Mike Trout for the Angels, and Anthony Rendon, since he returned from an injury two weeks ago, is 6-for-30 with 0 HR, 1 RBI. Angels’ multi-purpose Ohtani is 3-for-16 lifetime vs. Bassitt, (.188), with 7 strikeouts. He has to face him, but Bassitt doesn’t have to face Ohtani. Oh, that’s not fair. And who cares about fair? |
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05-27-21 | Royals +157 v. Rays | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals dropped a close 2-1 decision last night, but they've kept the Tampa offense in check the past two nights, and they're getting a huge price at Tropicana Field. They've made money vs. left-handers (+$360 in road games), and Shane McClanahan comes in with 4.36 ERA his last two appearances. Brady Singer has pitched well in recent appearances, so look for KC to prevail in today's rubber game. |
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05-27-21 | Padres -112 v. Brewers | 5-6 | Loss | -112 | 2 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Team with as good or better a bullpen than Milwaukee’s, with MLB’s best Run Differential of +80, vs. the Brewers’ -24, is only a short favorite. The Brewers’ team batting average of .209 and on-base percentage of .295 are lowest in the National League. They’ve never faced Ryan Weathers — 1.48 ERA, 0.92 WHIP — and by the time they think they have him figured out, he’ll be gone by the 4th innings, replaced by somebody just as capable. Adrian Houser’s 4.53 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, a mere 1.9 K-BB ratio… not doin’ it for us. |
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05-26-21 | Giants -111 v. Diamondbacks | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Diamondbacks had nine hits but couldn't push across a run in their latest defeat. Arizona has scored two or fewer runs in 10 of the setbacks during the 13-game stretch. The Diamondbacks stand 13 games behind the San Diego Padres in the National League West. Last-place Arizona is 12 1/2 games behind the second-place Los Angeles Dodgers and 11 1/2 games behind the Giants. Giants right-hander Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.34 ERA) will look to continue his career-long success against Arizona. The 35-year-old Cueto is 11-3 with 3.04 ERA in 18 career starts versus the Diamondbacks. He is 8-1 with a 3.30 ERA in 12 outings at Chase Field. Eduardo Escobar is 3-for-9 with a homer against Cueto, while David Peralta (1-for-15, nine strikeouts) and Nick Ahmed (1-for-12) have struggled. Cueto gave up one run and five hits in five innings while beating the Cincinnati Reds -- his former club -- last Thursday. Meanwhile the Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly (2-5, 5.05) has lost his past three starts and is winless over his last four. |
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05-26-21 | Dodgers -140 v. Astros | 2-5 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seems similar to last night’s match-up, when it was Kershaw vs. Greinke. The Dodgers’ starter, in this case Trevor Bauer, is capable of going longer and giving up fewer runs than the Astros’ starter, in this case Luis Garcia. Bauer’s starts for L.A. have averaged 6.4 innings and his WHIP is 0.77. Garcia’s starts for Houston have averaged only 4.9 innings and while his WHIP is a fine 1.10, Bauer’s 0.77 is clearly stronger. Things being what they are, Bauer should exit with a lead and then it’s up to a pretty good Dodgers’ bullpen to do its job. |
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05-26-21 | Braves v. Red Sox -135 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston pitcher Nick Pivetta will try to keep his undefeated streak intact today against a very familiar foe. The right-hander (5-0, 3.59 ERA) will close the two-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves, a team Pivetta has appeared against 15 times (12 starts). He will be opposed by left-hander Drew Smyly (2-2, 5.11). Pivetta is 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 15 games against Atlanta, including 3-0 as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies in 2017. But Pivetta said he has become a different pitcher since being acquired by Boston last August. "They gave me the confidence in myself, which was really good," he said. "They valued me, they traded for me, which was really nice of them. They valued me as a starter, which was huge, so it instilled a lot of confidence in me. They kind of let me be me, but they've helped me." He is 7-0 with a 3.28 ERA in 11 starts with Boston and is only the third pitcher to go unbeaten in their first 10 starts with the Red Sox, joining Mike Nagy in 1969 and Matt Clement in 2005. |
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05-25-21 | Dodgers v. Astros +105 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 10 Units Right-hander Zack Greinke (4-1, 3.77 ERA) will start the opener for the Astros on Tuesday. He is coming off his best outing in four weeks, having allowed one run on four hits with eight strikeouts over eight innings in an 8-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics on May 19. The Astros feature one of the top offenses in the majors, leading the league in batting (.270) while ranking second in OPS (.761), third in on-base percentage (.334) and fourth in slugging (.427). |
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05-25-21 | Cardinals +131 v. White Sox | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Lance Lynn gave the White Sox 7 innings of 3-hit, 1-run ball last night against the franchise which, after six seasons of pitching for them, five of them with a winning Won-Loss record, sent him on his way to what is currently a four-season, four-team, money-raking journey for the guy. The Cardinals had that coming to them from the baseball spirits, especially since Tony LaRussa, their former manager from 1995-2011, is leading the White Sox ten years after the Cardinals thought they’d put him out to pasture forever after two World Series wins, three NL pennants and nine post-season appearances. How satisfying a win was it? Glad we asked that question for you: “That was probably the most satisfying win in my career aside from the playoffs,” Lynn said. “I definitely enjoyed it.” Alrighty, then. But it’s a tough act to follow for their starter tonight, Lucas Giolito. He’s a fine and dandy young pitcher coming off 8 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball at Minnesota — so he is his own tough act to follow, isn’t he now? Good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. So far in 2021, nine (9) good things (wins) and no (zero, 0) bad things (losses). |
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05-25-21 | Padres +112 v. Brewers | 7-1 | Win | 112 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A 1.79 ERA and 0.62 WHIP are just too good to be believed, as far as their chances of being sustained at those super-elite levels over the course of a season, or half-season. That the Brewers are only 2-5 in Corbin Burnes’ seven starts despite his excellent numbers suggests a few things: hitting woes, which they most certainly have had; and wasted opportunities from excellent efforts that seem to be due to level off. With the Padres loss here last night, they are nevertheless 9-1 in their last ten games and have all their guys back from the virus nonsense (which didn’t affect them in a bad way, at all!). They are a +73 Run Differential underdog visitor against a -17 Run Differential home favorite. Few bullpens can match Milwaukee’s for depth of quality but the Padres’ pen is equal or better, actually better to date for 2021 with an MLB-low 2.47 ERA and #2 WHIP of 1.09. |
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05-24-21 | Orioles -103 v. Twins | 3-8 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins tonight. That, in itself, is a decent enough reason to be on the other side. Shoemaker actually had a good outing against somebody other than Detroit in his last start (White Sox), but the Twins still managed to lose the game, and we were grateful for that. Having John Means as the Orioles starter adds another fine reason to be against the Twins, who continue to be set frequently at favored odds despite being tied for the American League’s most losses. Yes, we know that Baltimore is the team they are tied with and that the Orioles are 1-9 in their last ten games. But they’re 11-11 on the road and Minnesota is 8-15 in their home park. That’s something. Isn’t it? Means has a 1.70 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. That’s something else. |
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05-22-21 | A's -136 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Chris Bassitt has started Oakland victories at Boston and at Minnesota for us in his last two outings. Tonight he’s on the road again facing, like the Twins, a last-place opponent. The Angels have a -47 Run Differential, closing in on Detroit for worst in the American League. They were a lousy team before Mike Trout went on the Injured List and are 1-4 since that day, winning when Alex Cobb threw some blistering innings for them, and us, against the — last-place — Twins. Two weeks ago, the Orange County Register reported that Angels manager Joe Maddon “values Patrick Sandoval as middle-innings closer.” He values him so much in that role that he’s starting today. “I love middle-inning closers. That’s been a big part of the success that I’ve been around in the past.” Yeah, well, try not to live in the past. That’s what propelled him to bring lefty Jose Quintana to the Angels, for yet another loss last night, when his “middle-inning closer” Mike Mayers turned a 4-3 lead into a 6-4 deficit in a hurry. Some reports say “Dylan Bundy” for the Angels, who’s been getting hammered lately, falling in line with what happens to most pitchers when they come to the Angels. Either, or. |
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05-22-21 | Dodgers -160 v. Giants | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since the beginning of last season, the Dodgers are 16-4 (80% wins) when Walker Buehler starts. He’s 4-0 vs. the Giants in his MLB career, during which San Francisco batters currently on the team have gotten only 13 hits in 66 at-bats (.197 BAA), just two of them for extra bases. Maybe this is why the Giants are “Undecided” about who to start against him? Because it doesn’t matter? An 80% pitcher’s odds figure to be less than 80% in this match-up, which would lift the Dodgers into an NL West first-place tie with the Giants if they win (although the Padres can beat the virus-depleted bullpen of Seattle and lead the division by one game after their 10:10 pm game is completed). |
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05-22-21 | Orioles v. Nationals -152 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Orioles have fallen a full 10 games below .500 following last night's loss in the series opener (2-8, -$530 last 10 days, with a 5.57 ERA among starters). The Nats have an edge with veteran Jon Lester (3.80 ERA) on the mound vs. Bruce Zimmermann (-$385, 5.40 ERA in six starts). The NL East is very competitive, and the Nats are in good shape, especially with Stephen Strasburg |
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05-21-21 | Astros v. Rangers +110 | 5-7 | Win | 110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Five days ago, the Rangers’ Kyle Gibson pitched 7 innings of 4-hit, 2-run ball against the Astros and left a 2-2 game. Reliever Joely Rodriguez came in and ruined everything, allowing 4 hits and 4 runs in 2/3 of an inning. Gibson, having a terrific season (2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, an average of 6 innings per start) was matched against Lance McCullers in that game. Tonight the Astros go with 25-year-old Tyler Ivey in his Major League debut. Ivey grew up a Rangers fan living about 15 miles away from where the Rangers play their home games. That’s nice, he’ll have his people in the stands and all that, and perhaps that’s why the Astros targeted this as his first MLB appearance. But they can’t throw pitches for him. After Texas was swept in the four-game series at Houston last week — facing Greinke, McCullers, Garcia and Javier — Ivey has to be considered a cut or two below those guys until he proves otherwise, coming in with unimpressive recent minor league numbers. |
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05-21-21 | Twins v. Indians -123 | 10-0 | Loss | -123 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Instead of originally scheduled Kenta Maeda, the Twins are switching to Randy Dobnak, who has pitched only in relief for them so far this season: 14 1/3 innings with a 8.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Uh-oh. Since he doesn’t figure to go deep into the start, and the Twins’ bullpen is lousy, and four relievers pitched in yesterday’s doubleheader in Anaheim, and one reliever (Tyler Duffey) is suspended, and the hitters and fielders could be a little jet-lagged after they played a pair on the West Coast yesterday then flew overnight across as many times zones as is possible within the Continental United States, the team with the second-worst winning percentage in MLB (.349) could have landed in a better situation under better circumstances, ya’ think? |
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05-21-21 | White Sox -105 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day We’ve been through this drill before but let’s lay out the details never the less: The AL Central -leading White Sox arrive in New York with the best batting average against left-handed pitching (.297), the highest On base Percentage (.376) and the best Slugging Percentage (.486). They’ve had only 296 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to 693 for the Houston Astros. While it may seem like a sample too short to be serious, it’s an extension of last season when they were 14-0 when the opponent started a lefty. They are 9-2 in that scenario this season, averaging 8.6 runs per game when the other side starts a lefty. The Yankees comply with Chicago’s “go” situation, serving up Jordan Montgomery. Throw out his stats. The White Sox’ Carlos Rodon won’t be pitching a no-hitter like he did in April but he is enjoying a resurgence. The team is 5-1 when he starts. He last faced the Yankees in 2019, at Yankee Stadium, winning a 6-2 game in which he pitched 6 innings and allowed 3 hits. |
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05-20-21 | Red Sox +119 v. Blue Jays | 8-7 | Win | 119 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Untis The Red Sox evened the series with a 7-3 win over Ross Stripling, and they are nicely poised to prevail in tonight's rubber match. Nick Pivetta has led Boston to wins in 7 of his 8 appearances (+$690 with an ERA on 3.16). The Red Sox are now 9-5 vs. lefthanders (+$250) and they've been a big money-maker outside of Fenway Park (+$825). Steven Matz has been inconsistent (4.29 ERA) so we'll take the underdog price on the visitor. |
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05-20-21 | Twins v. Angels +105 | 1-7 | Win | 105 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units They’re making the Twins work hard for their money. After a whole lotta games against first-place Oakland and Chicago White Sox, they have to fly all the way out to Los Angeles from Minneapolis to play two games today against the Angels, before they fly back to Cleveland to start a weekend series tomorrow. Jose Berrios is slated to start Game 2 for them and he may be able to bail them out, but young Aussie Lewis Thorpe is the scheduled starter here, with that lousy bullpen behind him. Twins manager Rocco Baldelli could have saved our boy Matt Shoemaker for a start against the Angels, his former team, with that extra motivational edge. But no, he used him yesterday. it was just another move he could have made but didn’t, in defeat. And he’s made a lot of moves, in defeat. Quite often, a team that is dropping in class after losing many games to higher-placed foes will “wake up.” But that’s usually when they’re home. And the Angels are in the same boat, having lost a ton of games recently to legitimate contenders Tampa Bay, the Dodgers, Houston, Boston and Cleveland — 12 of their last 17, to be exact. Alex (“I’ve a Blister on My Finger!”) Cobb returns from the Injured List. No Mike Trout but they weren’t exactly a powerhouse with him and the Twins find ways to lose. |
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05-19-21 | Nationals -147 v. Cubs | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs beat the Nats again last night, but the visitor has its best chance for a victory this evening with staff ace Max Scherzer on the mound. The veteran is off to a fantastic start in 2021 (2.10 ERA in eight appearances) and he'll be taking on a Chicago team that is only 10-17 vs. righthanders (-$715, averaging just 3.7 runs per game). Jake Arrieta has not looked sharp in recent outings (8.68 ERA last two) so we'll take the road favorite tonight. |
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05-19-21 | Marlins +119 v. Phillies | 3-1 | Win | 119 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins have won 5 of 8 Trevor Rogers starts and the lefty has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched in seven of his eight, plus one in which he allowed 6 hits and 0 runs in a 6-0 win. He enters tonight’s game with a 1.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Full disclosure: Rogers faced the Phillies one time as a rookie last season. He struck out five of the first seven batters, but then gave up 9 runs on 9 hits in his 3 innings. Young pitchers tend to make their biggest improvement in their second season and Rogers has certainly been on that path. Do the Phillies own him after that one try, or was it simply one of those days, which has since been followed by good ones? The Marlins have won four of Rogers’ last five starts, the only loss coming when he hooked Max Scherzer. Zach Eflin is not Max Scherzer and has allowed more hits than innings pitched in four of his last five starts. |
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05-19-21 | White Sox -118 v. Twins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The long, black-bearded mediocrity called Matt Shoemaker is starting for the Twins, with his 6.62 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his first seven starts for them. They tried to sneak him past us in the only early afternoon game on this beautiful day. Ah, nice try. His presence seems like a good reason to be on the other side. The guy can only pitch well against the Tigers. Who they playin’? Not the Tigers. Although the AL Central leading White Sox identity has been to hammer the heck out of left-handed starters into submission to the point where everybody and his brother knows about it, and Shoemaker throws with his right, last-place AL Central Minnesota has lost every game started by Shoemaker except his two against Detroit. The five losing scores of those games were 6-1, 11-3, 6-2, 7-0, 8-6. |
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05-18-21 | Mets v. Braves -131 | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Although Undecided can really come through sometimes, for the Mets tonight he or she will have to overcome the absence of Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and Brandon Nimmo from the lineup and although nothing has been said about him yet, it’s hard to believe that Kevin Pillar will be able to play after getting hit by a fastball in a bad, bloody spot last night. Mets thought that new ownership was their key to preventing injuries, a very Metsie way to be thinking. It isn’t. If they were the Padres, who played without four regulars in their lineup over the weekend, then they would sweep this series with outstanding pitching after overcoming the injuries to win 3-1 last night. But they are the Mets. Their pitching staff was already hit with injuries to Degrom and Syndergaard, who are on on the Injured list. Taijuan Walker seems set to join them after walking off the mound in the fourth inning of a 0-0 game last night, in which they burned possible-but-not-now spot starter Sean Reid-Foley for 3 hitless innings after Walker left. Braves lefthander Tucker Davidson is no sure thing but… |
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05-17-21 | White Sox -100 v. Twins | 16-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Normally, we’d pass on this match-up after the White Sox rocked JA Happ five days ago in Chicago. The reason? On a six-day turnaround the other day — an in plenty of situations past in quick re-hooks involving other teams and other starters — lefty Mike Minor of the Royals made a quick improvement to help beat Chicago after they’d pounded him in his prior start. But the Royals were +175 in that game. Tonight the Twins — still with the worst record in Major League Baseball — are near even-money. That seems to be worth the target-against effort when the White Sox hit lefties as well as they do: MLB-highs .293 batting average and .853 OPS. They average 7.9 runs when the opponent starts a lefty. They got 9 runs and 9 hits in 3 1/3 innings against Happ last week in a 13-8 win. White Sox lefty Dallas Keuchel didn’t exactly distinguish himself with the big lead, but like we said yesterday before it played out in the ninth inning for an Oakland win against the Twins, the Minnesota bullpen is always in position to be your friend when you’re on the other side. |
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05-16-21 | Braves +107 v. Brewers | 9-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers lost for the 8th time in their last 11 games yesterday (-$640), and they are on the verge of a sweep by Atlanta. Huscar Ynoa has been the ace of the Atlanta rotation (+$275, 2.29 ERA in seven starts) and the Brewers are averaging just 3.6 runs per game on offense. Freddy Peralta has been a mixed bag so far (4.09 ERA) and Atlanta has averaged close to 5.0 runs per game against righties. Easy call on the visitor vs. a slumping home team in today's series finale. |
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05-16-21 | A's +105 v. Twins | Top | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 3 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Play of the Day A’s righthander Chris Bassitt did right for us in Boston earlier in the week when he pitched 7 innings of 3-hit, 2-run, 10-0 K-BB ball in victory. So we’ll go back-to-back Bassitt today. Neither Kenta Maeda nor the Twins have done right for many people so far in the 2021 season, with Minnesota living in Detroit-ville among American League Central teams, having won a mere .351 percent of their games, fewest wins in Major League Baseball (13). Last-place vs. first, and last is favored. Maeda has a 5.08 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Last year those numbers were 2.70 and 0.75, so this season’s numbers are almost doubled! In the event that Maeda rediscovers his old form, there is always the Minnesota bullpen to account for, inventing ways to lose in late innings. |
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05-16-21 | Mets v. Rays +100 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marcus Stroman to avoid being swept in Tampa. Sounds good, on the surface. But Stroman is discovering what it’s like to live life in Metsie-like existence, not getting run support when pitching well and not pitching well when getting run support. The Mets entered this ballpark, located in Yankee territory, on a seven game winning streak that had coincided with the firing of their two batting coaches. So, everyone figured that must have been the reason why they weren’t doing as well as expected. But the real reason is that great expectations and the Mets are usually mutually exclusive. The logical conclusion to having swept Arizona and Baltimore at Citi Field is to get swept on the road by the Rays by decent lefty Josh Fleming and the usual good bullpen brigade. |
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05-15-21 | Indians v. Mariners -103 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Justus Sheffield has been alternating good and bad starts and comes off a bad one against a Rangers’ lineup that has hit lefties well this season. The Indians have not hit lefties well (.188 team Batting Average vs. left-handed pitchers) and they’ve never faced Sheffield at the Major League level. In his home ballpark, Sheffield has been much more effective. Opposing hitters have a .218 BA against him here, compared to .352 on the road. Indians’ starter Tristan McKenzie is doing okay but the team has lost four of his six starts and he has walked 8 batters in the last two, which totaled only 7 innings. |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals +121 v. Padres | 3-13 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Padres are missing regulars Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers, Jurickson Profar, Eric Hosmer from their lineup. They must have worked their rosary beads before last night’s 5-4 win vs. St. Louis because without those bats in the lineup, they got three walks and a hit batter in the third inning to get 2 of their eventual 5 runs, which were scored with only 4 total hits. Last night’s Cardinals starter Johan Oviedo should be sent to the minors forever and subjected to repeated taunting for not taking advantage of the situation and just throwing the ball over the plate, daring the subs in a lineup that had been scoring only 4.08 runs per game with all those currently absent guys in it to hit the damn ball. The rest of the Cardinals’ pitchers who were called upon last night should be docked a week’s pay for contributing to the team total of 12 walks allowed. Unbelievable, really. But tonight’s starter, Adam Wainwright, is a crafty old pro who probably won’t make the same mistakes when the prevailing situation is so much in favor of the Cardinals. The Padres’ Chris Paddack is no slouch but he has stagnated from his 2019 rookie season when he had a 0.98 WHIP. The club is 5-8 in his starts since the beginning of 2020 and his ERA/WHIP right now are 4.78/1.41. |
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05-15-21 | Phillies -136 v. Blue Jays | 0-4 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Phillies coasted to an easy 5-1 victory in last night's series opener, winning for the 8th time in their last 11 (+$630). Tonight they face a less less impressive left-hander (Anthony Kay 9.82 ERA in two outings) with staff ace Aaron Nola on the mound (3.59 ERA in eight starts). The Phillies are available at a very reasonable price and are poised to take 1st place in the NL East. Look for the visitor to make it two in a row. |
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05-14-21 | Reds v. Rockies -110 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units See how nicely we link one selection into the next? Veteran lefty Wade Miley of the Reds is the guy who threw the no-hitter against the Indians in his last start, the day after the Cleveland had swept the four games at Kansas City. His curveball and slider were moving all over the place that night. They have to. His fastball has topped the radar gun at only 89.5 mph this season. But when a pitcher is throwing in Coors Field, the very different atmospheric conditions prevent the ball from breaking as much as it normally would. Miley normally lasts 5 innings in his starts, 6 innings tops. But he went the full 9 against Cleveland, throwing 114 pitches. With a lesser breaking ball and sub-par fastball, he’ll be lucky to last 3 innings tonight. German Marquez’s overall numbers do not impress. But three bad starts (mixed with five good to “just fine” outings) have played a big part in creating the 5.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP that we feel are enroute to being lowered. |
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05-14-21 | Cubs -128 v. Tigers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day This is similar to Cleveland’s four-game sweep of Kansas City recently that was followed the next day by a shutout, no-hitter loss at Cincinnati. Tonight we have the Tigers hosting the Cubs after they, too, swept their AL Central division rival, Kansas City, in a three-game series completed yesterday. The Tigers are now thinking who the heck they are, forgetting that they actually are 13-24 with the worst run differential in MLB, -64. While sweeping the poor Royals, current losers of 11 straight, the Detroit bullpen managed several miraculous escapes from self-inflicted damage, living up to its MLB worst ERA (6.55) and WHIP (1.75). Tonight they ask a lefty with a 1-9 career W/L record, and a 5.67 ERA and 1.59 WHIP after five starts this season, to hold down the Cubs before the bullpen comes in and inevitably gives up runs. Tarik Skubal has appeared in a total of seven games for the Tigers this season and they have lost all seven. The Cubs are only 4-11 on the road but this is the first time they play a road game against a last-place team with a -64 run differential, right? Right. |
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05-13-21 | Indians v. Mariners +109 | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A double-shot of love, or like, or just gut-feel on tonight’s match-up between the Indians and Mariners in Seattle for several reasons. The Mariners average the fewest hits per game in Major League Baseball. They’re only getting 6.46 hits per game. Hard to score a lot of runs getting less than 7 hits per game. But the Indians are right behind them, or ahead of them, or however you want to look at it, #29 in hits per game at 6.82. Tonight is the MLB debut of Seattle righthander Logan Gilbert. He was their #1 draft choice in 2018 and has zipped through the minor leagues with a 5.5 to 1 K-BB ratio and ERA barely above 2.00. He threw 2 innings against the Angels in a March exhibition game and struck out Mike Trout and three others. He would have been with the team from opening day but the Mariners could save money on contracts by waiting until now to bring in some rookies. Who can blame them? It’s their team, their money. The team president got fired for admitting as much, which is one of the problems with the world today. These ballplayers make enough money. The team that pays it should be able to do what it wants to do, say what it wants to say about it. Anyway, Zach Plesac is making the Indians look smart for not wanting to pay the big money to that whiny righthander guy on the Dodgers and the other righty who’s injured on the Padres. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 31-7 K-BB, the Mariners have never faced him, and the best bullpen around for after he’s done. |
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05-13-21 | Twins v. White Sox -127 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox drubbed the fading Twins again last night, and they will send another effective pitcher in today's series finale. Lance Lynn has a stellar 1.52 ERA in five starts this year, and he should fare well against a Minnesota team that is only 7-14 (-$1420) in day games. Chicago is on top in the AL Central and riding a five game winning streak. Great price on the hot road team today at Guaranteed Rate Field. |
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05-13-21 | Cardinals +129 v. Brewers | 2-0 | Win | 129 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Good things tend to happen when Jack Flaherty starts for the Cardinals. We keep saying he’ll be a -160 or greater pitcher as a matter of routine, and yet here is as underdog pitching for the team with the second best record in MLB at the moment. A bit counterintuitive on the part of ‘The Man’ to make a team 7-0 with this pitcher starting, with baseball’s second-best record and better overall hitting than the home team, the underdog. Flaherty has a 2.83 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 42-11 K-BB in 41 1/3 IP. Corbin Burnes’ numbers are better. But he hasn’t started since April 26 and the Brewers are only 2-3 when he starts because, as we said, they don’t hit as well as the Cardinals. They’ve lost 8-0, 3-1 and 2-0 games started by Burnes, the 3-1 loss at St. Louis when he was opposed by Adam Wainwright. |
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05-10-21 | Rangers +133 v. Giants | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Quick — what Major League Baseball team has been the most profitable on a flat-bet, game-by-game basis this season? If you guessed the Texas Rangers, then you guessed correctly. You’ll recall, of course, that the Rangers were pretty much death to backers in 2020 with MLB’s second-worst Won-Loss record and the absolute worst Run Differential of -88, scoring an average of only 3.73 runs per game. Because so many people expect last season to be duplicated the next, you instead have the Rangers at 18-18, only 3 games out of first place in the AL West, reaping rewards for their backers via generous underdog odds with help from an offense generating 4.39 runs per game, more than a half-run more than last year. It’s been a while since anybody on the Giants has faced Kyle Gibson. Those who have combine for a mere .208 On-Base Percentage against him, earned when he wasn’t pitching as well as he has been lately: six straight quality starts totaling 33 IP, with only 3 ER allowed in that span. Lefty Alex Wood has given the Giants four fine starts, t’is true. But the Rangers have found ways to be 12-4 when the other side starts a lefty and in limited exposure to Wood (21 at-bats) they have 9 hits including 3 doubles and a homer. |
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05-09-21 | Phillies -107 v. Braves | 1-6 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units The Phillies posted a 12-2 victory on Friday before the Braves rallied for four runs in the 12th inning for a stunning 8-7 win on Saturday. Philadelphia is 5-3 against Atlanta this season. Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.89 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta right-hander Huascar Ynoa (3-1, 2.36). Nola has faced the Braves once this season. The right-hander received a no-decision after allowing two runs on six hits and six strikeouts in 6 2/3 innings on April 1. He has made 21 career starts against Atlanta, going 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA. |
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05-09-21 | Padres -152 v. Giants | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Padres bullpen days are as good as most of the best teams’ bullpen days. Lefty Ryan Weathers is a candidate and he could go anywhere from 3 to 5 2/3 innings based on recent appearances. Starter Dinelson Lamet is another possibility. He got hurt recently but returned to pitch two relief innings earlier in the week. Behind these two shorties is a bullpen with a National League-low 2.80 ERA, and third-lowest WHIP of 1.12. Giants’ 35-year-old Johnny Cueto hasn’t pitched for real in 3.5 weeks after suffering an in-game (sixth inning) lat strain while he was pitching very well against the Reds. Cueto started three games against the Padres last season and San Diego scored 6, 6, 7 runs in them. The Giants won one of them, but in order to do it they had to overcome the 4 runs that Cueto allowed in 3 2/3 innings. |
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05-09-21 | Rockies v. Cardinals -145 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals are surging (8-2, +$605 last 10 days) as they go for a sweep in today's series finale. The Rockies are wallowing in last place with a dreadful 8-17 record vs. right-handers (-$770), and starter German Marquez has not had any success so far in 2021 (6.21 ERA in his seven outings so far). Veteran Adam Wainwright is available at a reasonable price, so stick with the hot home team today at Busch Stadium. |
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05-09-21 | Brewers v. Marlins -132 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -132 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Marlins have a +21 Run Differential but are in fourth place in the NL East. The other four teams in the division have negative run differentials. What’s up with that? Danged if we know. But we do know that Sandy Alcantara, their starter, has a 2.95 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 42-12 K-BB in 42 2/3 innings and that he beat the Brewers 6-2 with 7 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball on Apr. 28 in Milwaukee. Like the Giants with Cueto below, Milwaukee is bringing a relatively old guy, Brett Anderson, off the injured list. He lasted 1/3 of an inning against the Cubs on April 24 before straining his hamstring. 60-year-olds could probably last longer out there without injuring themselves than some of these 30-something MLB pitchers. The Brewers had lost 6 in a row before yesterday’s win here, when the 6 runs they got matched their highest single-game output since May 1. They haven’t scored more than 6 in a game since Moby Dick was a minnow (actually, since beating the Pirates 7-1 on April 17). The fine Milwaukee bullpen has a match in Miami’s, which owns a NL-best 1.01 WHIP. |
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05-08-21 | White Sox -155 v. Royals | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Royals’ rookie lefthander Daniel Lynch had a very promising Major League debut earlier this week vs. Cleveland. But promising doesn’t butter the biscuit. He pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowed 4 hits and 3 runs. He walked 4 and struck out 3. Cleveland struggles to hit .200 against left-handed pitching. Today he gets thrown to the wolves against a White Sox lineup that has devoured left-handed pitching since the beginning of last season and is hitting .300 against it this season. The Royals began the week in first place. They had big dreams. Now they’ve lost six in a row to three different teams in their division who aren’t last-place Detroit. They haven’t scored a run in two games and are asking a rookie to hold down this lineup in what has been a bad match-up for many a lefthander, when Lance Lynn (innings-eating stalwart with a 1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) is pitching against them. Seems like an unreasonable request. Lynn pitched a complete-game shutout against KC on April 8. |
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05-08-21 | Blue Jays v. Astros -141 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -141 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day Uh-oh! Steven Matz may be back. The guy who showed up in Matz’ uniform for his first four starts as a member of the Blue Jays looked a lot better than the guy who pitched for the Mets the last few seasons. The new guy |
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05-08-21 | Pirates +166 v. Cubs | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs are riding a four game win streak at the moment, but they could be vulnerable to the underdog Pirates today. Pittsburgh has a profitable record in day games away from PNC Park (+$575) and Trevor Williams has pitched poorly for Chicago thus far (6.00 ERA his six outings). The Cubs are only 9-15 vs. righties in 2021 (-$565, 3.7 runs per game) so take a shot with the visiting underdog this afternoon. |
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05-07-21 | Reds +136 v. Indians | 3-0 | Win | 136 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The unwritten rule in baseball says that after a team concludes a four-game road sweep of a division rival, to vault into sole possession of first place over that rival in their division, you go against it as it changes venues for the next game, especially when it’s an Interleague game. Never seen that rule? Well, we said it’s unwritten. But now we just wrote it. It’s as close as it gets to a “letdown” theory for baseball, something that often gets applied in football and basketball. In only 29 at-bats against him, Reds batters have hit 5 home runs against Indians starter Zach Plesac. Wade Miley of the Reds is no prize, but sometimes ya’ gotta bite the bullet and go with your gut. |
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05-07-21 | Diamondbacks +118 v. Mets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day The Mets scored 1, 7, 4 runs in the three games after their two hitting coaches were fired. That works out to 4 runs per game, better than the 3.3 or so they were averaging prior. But, of course, that sample is short, and it’s also less than the D-Backs’ average of 4.97 runs per game, 4.5 on the road. All things being equal — which they hardly ever are but let’s ignore that — the Mets still have a ways to go before they can be counted upon to flip-flop and outscore people on a regular basis when favored to do so starting a lefthander like David Peterson. With less than a full season of MLB experience under his belt, Peterson has mastered the Phillies. But tonight’s opposing lineup isn’t the Phillies and is chewing up lefties with MLB’s highest Slugging Percentage and OPS: .511 and .858 in that category. Arizona’s 14 home runs against left-handed pitchers in only 231 at-bats is more than a whole bunch of teams have against lefties in considerably more at-bats. |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals -104 | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves insist on putting Drew Smyly out there. Since signing him for one year at $1 million, they are 0-4 in Smyly’s starts that have totaled 19 innings, and |
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05-06-21 | Indians v. Royals -125 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day As duly noted on this page five days ago, life generally yields better results to people when they’re not waking up in parked cars at 5 am. For lefthanded starter Danny Duffy of the Royals, currently tied for first place with the White Sox and Indians in the American League Central, this change has resulted in a 4-1 record with a 0.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, with 34-9 K-BB. He got it all started with 6 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball at Cleveland in KC’s 3-0 win on April 5. The Indians are hitting only .198 vs. left-handed pitching and offer up Tristan McKenzie on getaway day of a series they lead 3-0. So, the Royals are playing to avoid being swept in addition to getting a one-game lead on the Indians. McKenzie’s control, or lack of it, suggests that he ain’t up to the task: 18 walks in 18 2/3 innings. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league. |
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05-06-21 | Mets v. Cardinals +100 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals remain atop the NL Central after yesterday's doubleheader split. They have won 9 of their last 12 (+$615) while averaging almost 5.0 runs per game at the plate. The Mets can't hit, averaging just 3.1 runs per game, and they'll face a capable right-hander in John Ganr, who checks in with a 2.16 ERA in his five outings. We get a terrific price on a hot home team, as they look to make it 3 out of 4 in this series. |