Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals -104 | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves insist on putting Drew Smyly out there. Since signing him for one year at $1 million, they are 0-4 in Smyly’s starts that have totaled 19 innings, and |
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05-06-21 | Indians v. Royals -125 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day As duly noted on this page five days ago, life generally yields better results to people when they’re not waking up in parked cars at 5 am. For lefthanded starter Danny Duffy of the Royals, currently tied for first place with the White Sox and Indians in the American League Central, this change has resulted in a 4-1 record with a 0.60 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, with 34-9 K-BB. He got it all started with 6 innings of 2-hit, shutout ball at Cleveland in KC’s 3-0 win on April 5. The Indians are hitting only .198 vs. left-handed pitching and offer up Tristan McKenzie on getaway day of a series they lead 3-0. So, the Royals are playing to avoid being swept in addition to getting a one-game lead on the Indians. McKenzie’s control, or lack of it, suggests that he ain’t up to the task: 18 walks in 18 2/3 innings. Ya’ can’t walk that many guys and expect to win in this league. |
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05-06-21 | Mets v. Cardinals +100 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals remain atop the NL Central after yesterday's doubleheader split. They have won 9 of their last 12 (+$615) while averaging almost 5.0 runs per game at the plate. The Mets can't hit, averaging just 3.1 runs per game, and they'll face a capable right-hander in John Ganr, who checks in with a 2.16 ERA in his five outings. We get a terrific price on a hot home team, as they look to make it 3 out of 4 in this series. |
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05-05-21 | Indians v. Royals +145 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are sizable underdogs after losing the first two games of this series, squaring off against Cleveland ace Shane Bieber. But KC is averaging 5.5 runs per game vs. righthanders (+$310), and they have a capable arm in Brady Singer, who checks in with a 3.09 ERA in his five appearances this year. The Indians average just 3.8 runs per game vs. righties, so we'll look for the Royals to get on track at Kaufman Stadium. |
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05-05-21 | Braves v. Nationals +120 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not only did Braves’ righthander Huascar Ynoa pitch 7 shutout innings of 4-hit ball against the Nationals last night, but he also hit a grand slam in their 6-1 win. That’s ridiculous. Today the Braves throw a lefty at the Nats, who sport the best team batting average against southpaws (.305) and the second best OPS (.869). Max Fried has been no ordinary lefty but he was much less |
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05-05-21 | Mets v. Cardinals -102 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets fired their two batting coaches, and now Jacob deGrom’s Tuesday start was missed due to a sore lat muscle. Lucky for them yesterday was rained out. But their hitters who aren’t hitting are still facing a stranger, whether it’s Johan Oviedo or Kwang-Hyun Kim. Both are doing just fine so far. Marcus Stroman is fine, too, but the Mets couldn’t support him well enough vs. Philadelphia last time out in a 2-1 loss. Tonight, a lousy hitting team with two days off since they last swung the bats shows up with some rust on them, too. |
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05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's -119 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics have the best record in the AL, after winning last night's series opener. They own an 8-3 record vs. left-handers (+$445) and should make short work of Anthony Kay, who floundered in his only start (10.81 ERA). Cole Irvin has looked sharp in his five starts (3.67 ERA), and he's taking on a Toronto team that is only 2-6 (-$390) in night games on the road. A very reasonable price on the hot home team tonight at the Coliseum. |
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05-04-21 | Rays v. Angels -118 | 8-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ever since the Rays waved bye-bye to Alex Cobb, he has pitched well against them. In 2018 for the Orioles he faced them twice in two weeks, in 4-3 losses. He went 6 and 7 innings, a quality start each time. He faced them twice in 2020 in a 6-3 win and a 2-1 loss. He has allowed only 1 home to them in 62 at-bats. The lineup that supports him in L.A. is better than it was in Baltimore, for sure. Shane McClanahan goes at it in his second appearance of the season after allowing 5 hits and 2 runs in 4 innings home vs. Oakland. The guy who started last night’s game for them, Tyler Glasnow (AL-best 0.87 WHIP), gave them 6 innings of 3-run ball. McClanahan probably won’t do better and the Rays are hitting only .224 as a team. The 7 runs they scored last night was their most in two weeks. |
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05-04-21 | White Sox v. Reds -108 | 9-0 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day As far as starting pitching in this era of Major League Baseball is concerned, Reds’ righthander Jeff Hoffman has had four very passable starts. He’s yet to give up more than 3 runs, and gave up only 1 hit to the Dodgers on April 27. Woulda been nice if he hadn’t walked 5 of them, but they won the game anyway. He is supported by the best-hitting home team in MLB with the Reds averaging 7.73 runs per game in this park, as a well as a Major League best Hits per Run rate of 1.54. The White Sox have been better vs. lefties than righties since the beginning of last season. Dylan Cease has one good start out of five, his most recent. But it came against the Detroit Tigers, the worst-hitting team in MLB. When your best was against the worst, at home, then your worst might come against the best, on the road. |
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05-03-21 | Orioles v. Mariners -125 | 5-3 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Some may be willing to take a chance on Dean (Chance? Dean?) Kremer as a slight road dog. But his spring training ERA was 6.32 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work, with 17 hits and 8 walks (3 home runs). This, when you pitch for the Orioles, earns you a spot on the opening day roster and starts in the month of April. And, another today in May. This, after three more for-real starts in which his ERA is 8.40. The 24 hits (4 home runs) and 6 walks have helped to create a 2.00 WHIP. Perhaps this is why the Mariners have been on the fence with an “Undecided” for so long, because it doesn’t matter who they start? Reports of Eric Swanson are fine with us. He has thrown only 2 innings so far: 0 hits, 0 runs, 1 BB at Baltimore on April 13. Him, or a reasonable facsimile. |
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05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners +143 | 0-2 | Win | 143 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Professional managers and coaches say it all the time: ‘Your worst performance is often followed by your best.’ Mariners’ lefty Justus Sheffield allowed a career high 12 hits to the Astros in 5 1/3 innings of work last time out. “You’re not going to have all three of your plus pitches every time,” Mariners manager Scott Servais said afterwards. “There were a couple of sliders that just didn’t have that finish to it, that bite. Not quite as sharp as he has been in the past.” Well, in sports, the past is present. We hope. Angels who’ve faced Sheffield are 5-for-26 against him, 1 double and 0 home runs. Dylan Bundy has made five starts for the Angels and has yet to be credited with a win (0-2). That’s not all his fault as his numbers are fine. But the Angels’ bullpen is not. |
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05-02-21 | Royals +200 v. Twins | 4-13 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals remain atop all of MLB with a 16-9 record following yesterday's blowout win, yet they are enormous underdogs in today's rubber match at Target Field. Minnesota continues to flounder, losing 3 of their last 11 (-$815) and they are now only 2-8 (-$1120) in day games at home. Brad Keller has been sub-par in 2021, hence the generous price. But KC is now 11-5 when facing righthanders (+$610), so we like our chances vs. Berrios & Co. |
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05-01-21 | Cardinals -139 v. Pirates | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We keep saying that a) good things happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts, and b) Jack Flaherty will be a -160 or greater option before long. And yet, he keeps coming back at considerably lesser odds, this evening against a so-so foe. The Cardinals are 5-0 in Flaherty’s starts and he stretched out to 7 innings last time against the Reds, allowing 3 hits and 1 run. His WHIP is 0.95; Pirates who have faced him are hitting just .192 against Flaherty with 0 home runs in 82 at bats. Seems like a bit much to overcome for a home team scoring only 3.8 runs per game and countering with a ho-hum, hangin’ on journeyman Trevor Cahill. Paul Goldschmidt is 3-for-4, Matt Carpenter 6-for-13 against Cahill. Nolan Arenado is 3-for-12 but 2 of the hits were doubles. Cahill’s ERA is 7.11 with a 1.42 WHIP after 19 innings of alternating bad-good starts, most recently good. |
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05-01-21 | Mets v. Phillies -121 | 5-4 | Loss | -121 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The anemic Mets offense waster another fine pitching performance last night, losing a 2-1 decision in the series opener. They're averaging just 2.7 runs per game, and have a 1-6 record in night games on the road (-$725 so far). Zack Wheeler has been effective in his five starts for the Phillies, and the team has a 9-4 record here at Citizens Bank (+$590). The cheap price on the home team is hard to resist. |
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05-01-21 | Royals +126 v. Twins | Top | 11-3 | Win | 126 | 4 h 33 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day Life in a parked car at 5 am is no fun and it pretty much inhibits you from being at your best in several key day-to-day responsibilities. Royals lefthander Danny Duffy seems to have finally figured that out, for the time being, and avoided that kind of existence. Although his 5 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball against the Tigers six days ago is next to meaningless because it came against a team that can’t do anything vs. lefties, he’d made three quality starts prior to that. With the Royals still in first place in the American League Central despite last night’s 9-1 loss here, he enters with a WHIP of 1.04, ERA of 0.39. Duffy made three straight starts against the Twins in August last season and got better each time. The Twins won all three. Minnesota acquired Matt Shoemaker from the Angels after L.A. could stomach him no more. He is a long, black-bearded mediocrity and the Twins have lost his last three starts 8-6, 7-0 and 6-2. |
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04-30-21 | Rockies +110 v. Diamondbacks | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The 7-inning no-hitter thrown by D-Backs’ lefty Madison Bumgarner on Sunday was a little too good to be believed, especially since it came against the play against team from above that is hitting .139 against left-handed pitching (see how nicely we lead into these things?) Jon Gray recently beat the D-Backs in Coors Field with 6 2/3 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball. They are 4-2 when he starts, both losses to the Dodgers. He brings a 1.09 WHIP, 2.54 ERA into this despite pitching in Coors Field for five of his six starts. |
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04-30-21 | Braves v. Blue Jays -125 | 5-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves are hitting .139 against left-handed pitching. Who does that? Well, they do, so far. This level of futility comes with 4 home runs and 10 RBI in 118 at-bats. They are duking it out with Detroit to see who can be worse. Lefty Robbie Ray has a decent history against the guys he’s faced in this deficient-vs.-lefthanders lineup, allowing only 2 home runs in 80 at bats with a .286 Slugging Percentage against him. The bullpen behind Ray has a 2.30 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. Drew Smyly… yawn. 4, 5, 6 runs allowed in his three starts, including 6 home runs. The Blue Jays have averaged 5.62 runs per game in their latest of friendly Florida confines in Dunedin, FL, #4 in home ballpark scoring. |
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04-29-21 | Mariners v. Astros -149 | 1-0 | Loss | -149 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the first two games of this series, our ‘trigger’ was the scenario of the Astros facing a Seattle lefthander after they’d done okay vs. Kikuchi in Seattle despite not having 33% of the starting batting order available, and being pro-Houston. That was the right move each time and that is the scenario here, with Kikuchi in the flesh to try to improve upon the 5 runs he allowed to the Astros’ B lineup in that game. After wins as home favorite of -170 and -160, then yesterday’s ‘pass’ on Houston against a righty at -200 (they won that one, too), today’s -150 is pretty much a ‘buy low’ on these Astros, who have proven worthy in the situation while quickly leapfrogging the Mariners in the standings. Seattle came into this series in first place in the AL West. Not anymore. |
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04-29-21 | A's -105 v. Rays | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 2 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Athletics look to bounce back from two defeats and achieve a split of the four game series with ace righthander Chris Bassitt, who's been flashing good form in recent appearances (3.00 ERA last two). The A's remain atop the competitive AL West (7-3, +$385 last 10 days) and come in here with a 7-3 record in day games (+$455). They'll face a first time starter at Tropicana Field, so we'll take the visitor against the Tampa rookie left-hander. |
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04-28-21 | Rockies +140 v. Giants | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eyeballing this match-up yesterday we were hoping the Rockies would still be winless on the road because it’s more fun that way. But they won last night. No problem. We’re pretty sure that that they’ll win more than 1 of 81 away from Coors Field. A good spot for another would be when starting a pitcher like German Marquez. Or, better yet, German Marquez himself. Until Jon Gray suddenly became consistently good this April (with five more months to get through), Marquez was Colorado’s most reliable starter for the last few seasons. He made two starts vs. the Giants in 2020. One was home, the other in whatever the heck they’re calling it this year — Pac Bell? SBC? AT&T? Nah, not it. But who cares? Marquez was 2-0 in those games, giving up 11 hits and 3 runs in 13 1/3 innings with 12-2 K-BB. Lefty Alex Wood, first-season Giant, is 2-0 after befuddling the Marlins in back-to-back starts. We’ll let him prove he can get past this lineup, with guys who’ve combined to hit .304 against him with a .584 slugging percentage and 17 RBIs in 56 at-bats. |
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04-28-21 | Angels v. Rangers +115 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Young Dunning has done okay so far for the win-later Rangers after being traded by the win-now White Sox for Lance Lynn over the winter. While the White Sox validated themselves by shellacking the heck out of him five days ago (‘Hey, we traded you. You think we’re not going to kill you now?), he’d given the Rangers three starts of 6, 4, 5 innings prior to that, allowing 10 hits and 1 run in 15 innings with 17-2 K-BB. But then came his former teammates, in Chicago, to put the second-year major leaguer in his place. But the Angels have never faced Dunning as the scoreboard re-sets to 0-0 and Alex Cobb opposes him. In nine MLB seasons before this, his first with the Angels, Cobb’s K-per-9 inning rates have been: 6.3, 7.0, 8.4, 8.1, 6.5, 6.4, 6.0, 5.8, 6.5. So far in 2021 after three very spaced-apart starts, that rate is 13.2 Ks per 9 innings. That’s what we call ‘No way, Jose’ numbers, whiffing almost twice as many guys per 9 IP as in any of the last five seasons. A guy with a 6.28 ERA and 1.60 WHIP despite the too high-to-be-believed K rate destined to come down, seems like a meaty bone being served to a hungry home dog. |
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04-28-21 | Cubs v. Braves -126 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs lost to Atlanta for the fourth time in five head to head games this season (-$350) when they squared off last night, and they're poised to get swept at SunTrust Park. Chicago now has a pitiful 4-13 record vs. right-handers in 2021 (-$1120), averaging a mere 2.9 runs per game in those contests. Huascar Ynoa checks in with a 2.25 ERA at home, while Kyle Hendricks has been ineffective in four starts for the Cubs (-$355, 5.68 ERA). Good spot for the Braves to pick up another win over the struggling visitor.raves to pick up another win over the struggling visitor. |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros -190 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units A lay as large as last night’s, and now tonight’s, is higher than we’ll typically go but ya’ gotta do what ya’ gotta do in order to win. Right? Right. We referenced the situation yesterday: Houston hits lefties pretty well. They got to one in Seattle despite missing 33% of their starting batting order but lost the game. They got to one last night for 12 hits and 5 runs in 5 1/3 innings with all of those guys back. (Hey, with 12 hits, they shoulda scored more than 5 runs against Sheffield, for cryin’ out loud!) Even Jose Altuve, whose status they were keeping under wraps, showed up for the first time in a while and went 3-for-5 with 2 RBI. Did Seattle learn anything? Seemingly not. They insist on throwing another lefthander at the Astros tonight, against whom the Houston batters have a .318 against in 138 at-bats. Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman… hitting .429, .500, .444 and .348 against Marco Gonzalez. The Astros counter with Cristian Javier, who exits a pair of 5-inning, 3-hit, shutout ball starts against the A’s and Angels with total K-BB 16-3. |
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04-27-21 | Red Sox +136 v. Mets | 2-1 | Win | 136 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have the second worst Hits per Run scored ratio in MLB, 2.32 hits for every run. They are #28 of 30 in runs per game: 3.29. With this offense — always eligible to improve but being what it is right now — they throw lefty David Peterson, who has yet to log a full Major League season, at the lineup with the best road batting average and slugging percentage in MLB, .286 and .510. When the Cubs were having mysterious problems at the plate, the baseball gods sent Peterson to Wrigley field last week to help revive Chicago bats in a 16-4 Mets loss started by Peterson, who allowed 6 runs in 3 1/3 innings. Only 3 of the runs were earned but 3 runs in 3 1/3 innings is a better offensive rate than the Mets have been scoring at over 8 or 9 innings. |
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04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates -106 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units One of the pleasant surprises for Matheny has been Tuesday's starting pitcher, RHP Jakob Junis. Originally slated for long relief and the occasional spot start, Junis is 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA. He's gone exactly five innings in his three starts and appears to have found a solid spot in the rotation. Junis will face lefty Tyler Anderson, who is 2-2 with a 3.92 ERA. He has been steady, going five or 5 1/3 innings, and allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. He's struck out 21 in 20 1/3 innings. Neither Junis or Anderson has faced Tuesday's opponent before. |
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04-26-21 | Mariners v. Astros -162 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Astros aren’t hitting .300 against lefties anymore but their run production against them has been just fine, as it was when they faced a different Mariners lefty — Kikuchi — in Seattle during a recent road trip. They got 5 runs against that guy despite playing without Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez. But they still had a 5-2 lead heading into the bottom of the seventh of that game, when the bullpen started to blow it. Altuve has still been out but the others are back. Justus Sheffield has a more difficult lineup to get through than any of the Seattle pitchers had during that prior series in Seattle. Jose Urquidy gave the Astros 5 2/3 innings of 5-hit, 2-run ball in that loss which is all you can ask for and not unreasonable to expect again. |
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04-25-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -130 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have been a better hitting team at home than they have been on the road. Away, they’ve been shut out at Arizona, twice at San Francisco, and then last night in St. Louis. Ours is not to reason why. Ours is but to do… and keep doing. Good things tend to happen for the Cardinals when Jack Flaherty starts. They’ve won all four of them so far and scored 11, 7, 14 and 12 runs in doing so. As we said recently, Flaherty is a guy who’ll be laying -160 on a regular basis before long. Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo is not pitching to his reputation and past numbers, with his 6.06 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Two starts ago in San Francisco they gave him a 4-0 lead in the first inning but it was gone, goodbye, all of it, by the time he got his first three outs. He followed up on that stinker by losing a home game to the D-Backs giving up 7 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings. |
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04-25-21 | Royals -112 v. Tigers | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The American League Central division’s first place team lays a short number throwing a lefty against a host that hasn’t been able to hit them. We had a winner with the Royals and Mike Minor over the Tigers on Friday and after that affair, the Tigers are still hitting only .179 vs. lefthanders with a mere 8 RBI and 2 home runs in 145 at-bats. The Royals have won the first two games of this series and if you think we’re stepping in against a desperate home team seeking to avoid being swept in a series, please be aware that the Tigers will have that opportunity tomorrow when the four-game set concludes. Michael Fulmer is a fine pitcher but as noted on Friday, he and the lousy Detroit bullpen with the 6.00+ ERA will have to out-do themselves to overcome the lack of support, should the numbers hold. Duffy is pitching well since he isn’t spending his time being found asleep in parked cars early in the morning. |
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04-24-21 | Blue Jays +110 v. Rays | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a new crosstown rivalry! The Blue Jays are playing home games right across the Old Tampa Bay in Dunedin, FL, which is 35 minutes west of the Rays’ Tropicana Field. The collective fear of a nation other than the U.S. has forced their exile from Canada. They didn’t have to get on an airplane to play last night’s game, in which National League lefty refugee Steven Matz helped propel them to a win against a guy who’d been next to unhittable, Tyler Glasnow. Did driving across town, vs. packing a lot more stuff and flying 3.5 hours, have something to do with their ability to get the road W? We’ll never know for sure but it couldn’t have hurt. Tonight, they throw another one of their National League lefty refugees — they have a trio of them doing good work — against the Rays (Ray against the Rays, ha!). Tampa counters with one of their famous relief nights, opened by Brent Honeywell, Jr. It’s been a good formula for the franchise since it was instituted but the bullpen currently has an ERA of 5.21. |
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04-24-21 | Brewers +101 v. Cubs | 4-3 | Win | 101 | 4 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For the third time this season, there’s a Peralta-Alzolay match-up. Third time could be the charm for Alzolay and the Cubs after they lost the prior two 6-3 and 4-0, away and home. They’re on a four-game win streak and have broken out of an early-season slump. But the scoreboard is reset from 15-2 last night and maybe they’re just not ready for Freddie after his two pitching lines against them totaled 11 innings of work, 3 hits, 1 run. Peralta is backed by one of the best bullpens going. Gotta draw a line through yesterday’s game when Brewers’ starter Brett (I’m on My Way Outta Baseball) Anderson failed to get out of the first inning against the Cubs, and anti-reliever Josh Lindblom entered with gas cans full, pouring them onto the fire with gleeful zeal so that by the end of the second inning, it was 10-0 Cubs. |
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04-24-21 | Royals v. Tigers +107 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals have hit well against righthanders, but they've averaged just 3.4 runs per game vs. southpaws so far, and Detroit starter Matthew comes in with a 2.03 ERA in three outings this season. KC has a tenuous grip on 1st place in the AL Central because their pitching staff is underperforming (4.53 ERA, 4th worst in the league). The Tigers are getting an underdog price with a hot lefty on the mound. |
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04-23-21 | Pirates v. Twins -159 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit MLB Play of the Day OMG! Extremely unusual mishaps on and off the field that happened to the Twins while they were on the road shouldn’t happen to a dog. A mean dog. They are the ‘coldest’ team in baseball, 1-9 in their last 10 games, last place in the American League Central. But it just so happens that the opponents they’ve been losing to are the hottest teams in baseball — Oakland, 11-game winning streak; Boston, who’d been 10-1 in their last 11 after taking three of four from Minnesota; Seattle, tied for first place with Oakland in the AL West. Following a curtailed trip that was cut to four games from seven, they return home — not the most serene place in the world right now but home, nevertheless — and take a major drop in class with the Pirates as the visitor. The Twins made the post-season last year, won 60% of their games. This is like a stakes horse that was shipped out of town but could never get the feel of the track and was thrown off its routine when asked to run against a fellow stakes horses on its own home track (Oakland), returning to its home course matched against an out of town allowance horse. The Twins’ bats have been weak vs. lefties but the Pirates didn’t get the memo and will start JT Brubaker, as his teammates who have faced JA Happ try to figure out why they are hitting a combined .131 against him in 83 at-bats. |
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04-23-21 | Royals -106 v. Tigers | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals are atop the American League Central and have arrived for a four-game road series against a perennial loser they beat six times in 10 games last season. There’s a long way to go and they probably won’t last, but they’re set up to at least sustain what they’ve got going for another night in this day-to-day world. Mike Minor seems like a major asset to leverage against the host Tigers, who are ahead of only the Mets in average runs scored per game (3.37). Minor is a crafty, 33-year-old lefthander throwing at a lineup that is currently batting a Major League-low .174 against lefties with 1 home run and 6 RBIs in 121 at-bats. Although Minor has been around the block more than a few times, the current group of Tigers has only 24 at-bats against him with results that mirror their struggles against southpaws so far in 2021: a mere 3 hits, all singles, and 11 Ks vs. 1 walk. Detroit’s Casey Mize, and the bullpen behind him with the highest ERA and WHIP in MLB (6.64, 1.67), would really have to out-do themselves to overcome the lack of support if the Tigers’ offensive numbers hold. |
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04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs +102 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets have dropped the first two games of this series and to help them avoid being swept, they start a Padres reject the Cubs have hit for a .447 Batting Average Against. In only 26 at-bats against Joey Lucchesi, Chicago batters have done a heck of a lot of damage: 15 hits (including 5 doubles, 2 home runs), 8 RBI. Yesterday we noted how the Mets have been extremely inefficient on offense, with MLB’s second lowest Hits per Run ratio of 2.34 hits for every 1 run scored. They went out and got 10 hits, 4 runs, which is 2.5 hits for every run scored. True to form! We’re not making it up here, ya’ know? Trevor Williams has made three starts for the Cubs. They sandwiched 13-4 and 5-3 wins vs. Atlanta and Milwaukee in which he totaled 11 innings, 6 hits and 3 runs allowed, in between a lousy start in Pittsburgh, against the Pirates team he abandoned after last season. Pittsburgh made their former teammate of five seasons pay for his disloyalty. It happens. As it should. Well, to be fair, the Pirates wanted to send him to Triple-A in November but he opted for free agency instead. |
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04-22-21 | Yankees v. Indians -109 | 6-3 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Indians right-hander Aaron Civale (3-0, 2.18 ERA) looks to continue his winning ways when he gets the nod today. He allowed one run on five hits in six innings of a 4-2 victory over the White Sox on April 15. Civale will be opposed by Yankees right-hander Domingo German (0-2, 9.00 ERA), who will take the mound for his first start since April 10. He was optioned to the alternate training site after the contest. German, 28, sports an 0-2 record with a 5.63 ERA in three career starts versus Cleveland. |
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04-21-21 | Mets v. Cubs +116 | 4-16 | Win | 116 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There aren’t many teams scoring less than the Cubs. But there is one! It’s the Mets, at 3.17 runs per game the lowest-scoring team in MLB (vs. 3.38 runs per game for Chicago). They got only 1 run here last night against Jake Arrieta and relievers, face another crafty righty tonight in Zach Davies. The Mets are challenging the Nationals for worst Hits per Run ratio at 2.34 hits for every run scored. The Cubs haven’t been getting many hits, but they’ve needed 1.72 of them to score a run, a more efficient number than the Mets, for sure. Mets’ lefty David Peterson looked great at home against the Phillies seven days ago but let’s see how he does in chilly Wrigley Field as a still-young lefty against a lineup due for much better. |
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04-21-21 | Giants +109 v. Phillies | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phillies who have faced him are hitting only .163 against Giants’ righthander Anthony DeSclafani, with just 1 home run in 68 at-bats. DeSclafani has made three strong starts to begin his tenure with the Giants: 6, 6, 5 innings, allowing a total of only 2 runs, 16-4 K-BB. Good Zach Eflin has showed up in two of his three starts so far but bad Zach Eflin is always lurking. Giants batters are hitting .321 against Eflin with an OPS of .930. |
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04-20-21 | Twins -110 v. A's | 0-1 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If it turns out that Matt Shoemaker is actually opposing Luzardo, well… yeah, we’ll take him instead of the (usually) better Berrios, leaving it to the baseball gods and the A’s meager .204 team BA against right-handed pitching while getting bigger odds. One of the most frustrating things about playing baseball is targeting a pitcher you don’t think will get the job done, doesn’t, yet his team wins anyway. The A’s have won Jesus Luzardo’s last two starts and we were on the other side in one of them, vs. the Dodgers. He pitched “okay” in that game, but the Dodgers’ manager Dave “We Won a World Series Despite Me” Roberts decided that some of their best hitters shouldn’t play that day. Luzardo came back six days later to groove it over the plate to Arizona batters who frequently can’t hit water from a boat yet scored 5 runs on 6 hits in 2 2/3 innings against him. The Twins are happy to be out there playin’ ball again after their most recent games were called on account of fear, with a rested and ready bullpen. |
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04-20-21 | Orioles v. Marlins -118 | 7-5 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Matt Harvey is pitching tonight for his latest team, a perennial bottom-dweller in the American League East. Apparently, they are striving to maintain their reputation and standing in the world with acquisitions such as this. Miami’s Nick Neidert has been opposed by Atlanta’s Charlie Morton and the Mets’ Taijuan Walker in his two starts. Morton is an established ace, Walker was a highly sought-after guy at the trading deadline last season whom Toronto couldn’t keep after adding him at the 2020 deadline. Walker had a 1.37 ERA in six starts for the Blue Jays after leaving Seattle, and the Mets have won 3-2 and 4-3 games in his first two starts for them. The Orioles are 1-2 when Harvey starts, and his longest stint was 5 innings with 7 hits allowed. He had a 2.74 WHIP for the Royals in 11 2/3 innings last season. He made four starts for them, three relief appearances, yet totaled only 11 2/3 innings. He could use all the support they can possibly give him but the Orioles lose their DH in a National League ballpark. Marlins who have faced Harvey are 7-for-17 against him (.390). Nobody on the Orioles has faced Neidert. Mystery man. |
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04-19-21 | Rays v. Royals -109 | 4-1 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units \Pitcher: Duffy The Royals will host the Tampa Bay Rays for the start of a three-game series Monday night. Matheny will count on left-hander Danny Duffy (2-0, 0.75 ERA) to repeat his performance from his first two games, in which he pitched six innings both times. Duffy has allowed just one earned run in 12 innings. Last Tuesday, in his most recent outing, he allowed one run in six innings against the Los Angeles Angels and held them to 1-for-7 with runners in scoring position. On his 100th pitch of the night, he struck out Jack Mayfield on a 95-mph elevated fastball with the bases loaded to end the top of the sixth inning. Duffy is 2-1 with a 2.68 ERA in six career starts against Tampa Bay. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-19-21 | Cardinals -110 v. Nationals | 12-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Flaherty The Cardinals have won all three of Jack Flaherty’s starts and before the season is over, he’ll probably be a pitcher with whom bettors will have to lay -160 or more quite often. His teammates got Nola’d yesterday by the Phillies ace. They also got shut out over 6 innings by Washington’s Joe Ross, five days ago, similar to how Ross’ Washington teammates had been stymied by Flaherty the day before. Ross has yet to give up a run this season. Joe Ross is suddenly an ace? Joe Ross is as good as Aaron Nola? Or Jack Flaherty? Probably not. If Joe Ross > or = Aaron Nola or Jack Flaherty, then we’re the Amazing Criswell. Meanwhile, the Nationals rank dead last in MLB in a category called Hits per Run. They have 2.48 hits for every run scored. They made Madison Bumgarner look good yesterday, getting only 2 hits and 1 run in 5 innings against a pitcher who’d been giving up 7 hits and 6 runs in less then 5 innings. The Cardinals have been much more efficient at the plate: 1.54 hits for every run scored (#3 in MLB). NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-18-21 | Mets -174 v. Rockies | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jacob deGrom gets a lot of attention, and deservedly so, but the New York Mets have another pitcher worthy of headlines. Marcus Stroman (2-0, 0.75 ERA) has proven to be a more than adequate No. 2 in New York's rotation, putting together a 2-0 record with a 0.75 ERA in two starts this season. He'll get his third official start when the Mets wrap up a three-game series with the Colorado Rockies in Denver. The Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela (1-2, 7.07 ERA) to the mound for the third game in the last two days. A snowstorm postponed Friday's opener, so the teams played a doubleheader on Saturday. |
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04-18-21 | Blue Jays +105 v. Royals | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Royals’ Brady Singer had three very good starts towards the end of last season, 8-, 6- and 7-inning 11-1, 4-0 and 3-1 wins against Cleveland, and Detroit twice. But maybe it had something to do with the relatively weak opposing lineups. His two starts this season have totaled only 8 1/3 innings, in which he has allowed 12 hits and 10 runs. (Against the Indians last year, he went 8 innings and gave up only 1 hit and 0 runs.) The Royals are atop the American League Central with an 8-5 record, but a Run Differential of only +1. Robbie Ray was a hard-luck, 3-1 loser against Yankees’ ace Gerritt Cole in New York earlier this week but he gave up only 3 hits in 5 innings, the three runs coming on two home runs by back-up catcher Kyle Higashioka (who should probably be the Yankees’ #1 catcher, but we digress). Four Blue Jays relievers threw three innings of shutout ball after Ray left. Toronto’s National League lefty reclamation project has been working out well, with Steven Matz improving to 3-0 after he beat the Royals 5-1 in the first game of yesterday’s double-header. |
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04-18-21 | Giants v. Marlins -130 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit MLB Play of the Day “The Giants are getting a much-needed addition to the rotation with Alex Wood set to take the hill against the Miami Marlins on Sunday…” So says some cliche-ridden report (‘much-needed’, and ‘take the hill,’ geez). Whatever. Maybe he’ll pitch a great game and help prevent them from being swept in this three-game series. But the Reds and Dodgers didn’t want him, and the Dodgers’ disposal of him came after re-acquiring him from Cincinnati before the start of last season. The Giants signed Wood to a one-year, $3 million contract for 2021 and he thanked them for it by opening the season on the injured list, which is par for the course for a Major League pitcher. Wood throws left; so far in 2021 the Marlins happen to be hitting .310 against lefties, #3 in MLB with the #1 OPS of .922. Giants’ batters haven’t faced Pablo Lopez since May, 2019, when he went 6 innings throwing 4-hit, 1-run ball against them on this field. |
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04-17-21 | Astros v. Mariners +118 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units After a strong start the Astros have hit the skids, losing their last six in a row (-$525 overall). The Mariners are top the AL West having won 7 of their last 10 (+$650) and they'll catch a generous underdog price vs. Zack Greinke, who's been average at best in three starts so far (4.08 ERA). Seattle is averaging close to 5.0 runs per game at the plate, so look for them to stay hot when they square off against Houston tonight. |
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04-17-21 | Dodgers -113 v. Padres | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Big Game Darvish, he is not. Yu Darvish spent a half season with the Dodgers and couldn’t cut it in the clutch. The Dodgers who’ve faced him since are only |
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04-17-21 | Indians v. Reds -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The run sequence for the Indians in their last five games is now: 3, 2, 0, 4, 3 after last night’s 10-3 defeat. The Reds’ run sequence in their home ballpark is 6, 9, 12, 5, 14, 11, 10. They’ve scored more runs in every single home game than the Indians have in any of their last five games. The Reds continue to be the top-hitting home team in MLB, with a .321 batting average at — what’s it called this year? — oh, still Great American Ball Park. That’s nice. The Indians haven’t faced Sonny Gray since he was struggling for the Yankees in 2018, and he beat them 5-2. Tristan McKenzie has made it to the fourth inning in his two starts for the Indians, in 4-3 and 3-0 losses to the Royals and White Sox. Like Logan Allen last night, they’re asking him to retire a bunch of the hottest hitting home team hitters in the game right now, backed by what stacks up as less than average run support. |
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04-16-21 | Astros -107 v. Mariners | 5-6 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With an assist from facing Matt Harvey and the Orioles yesterday, the Mariners arrive home 8-5 in first place in the American League West (the Astros are 6-6). Something about playing two games in Baltimore yesterday, then flying 3,000 miles to play another tonight against the Astros, makes it seem like they won’t be at their physical peak, or at least just a little bit off, or at least not as prepared as they could be compared to the Astros, who were off yesterday, already in Seattle, not using four different relief pitchers as the Mariners did to nail down a doubleheader sweep. Houston is the only team in the AL West with a positive run differential (+11) and although it’s early, they’re 1-5 home and 5-1 on the road, the road being the place where they supposedly couldn’t win games last season (well they won only 9 of them, vs. 23 losses, so, yeah. But these things tend to turn, so why do we even bring it up?) In the Cleveland-Cincinnati forecast above, we referenced the Astros having the most at-bats vs. left-handed pitchers so far this season. They happen to have the #1 team batting average against lefties, which is a very healthy .333 along with a .918 OPS. Into that, throws Mariners’ lefty Yusei Kikuchi. |
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04-16-21 | Indians v. Reds -115 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds have only 65 at-bats against left-handed pitchers so far this season, fewer than everyone except the Mets and Brewers. (To compare, the Astros and Indians have 195 and 187 at-bats vs. lefties). Cincinnati’s ho-hum numbers in such a short sample don’t mean much, and they are built to do just fine against them. They are returning to a home ballpark where they put up 6, 9, 12, 5, 14, 11 runs in their first six games before going out on the road at Arizona and San Francisco. The Indians got a 2-2 series split in Chicago against the White Sox, but they topped out at only 4 runs in a 3, 2, 0, 4 sequence. They ask young lefty Logan Allen to throw in a stadium where the home team is hitting .320. More power to him if he can make his way through this lineup after beating the Royals 5-2, and losing 2-0 to the Tigers in a pair of 5-inning starts. The Indians have a .192 team BA against righthanders, and in 32 plate appearances a .157 BA against the Reds’ Jeff Hoffman. |
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04-16-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -186 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nationals are off an embarrassing 11-6 loss to the D'backs. But they should bounce back tonight behind Max Scherzer, who is 7-0 with a 2.85 ERA in nine starts against his former team. At 3-7, the Nats could certainly use a quality outing from Scherzer here. He delivered one his last time out, allowing just one run and three hits in six innings. That wasn't enough to beat the Dodgers, but a similar effort should allow for a win against tonight's opponent. Arizona pitching has allowed six or more runs in three consecutive games entering tonight. So there is hope for Washington's hitters. They'll face Taylor Widener, who was not as effective in his second start as he was in the first. There haven't been a ton of strikeouts by Widener thus far. Despite losing, Washington had more hits than Arizona last night. I can't see them losing two straight as big favorites. |
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04-15-21 | Tigers v. A's -160 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Detroit just pulled off a somewhat shocking three-game sweep in Houston, I don't see them continuing to win as they fly out to Oakland Thursday night. The A's are on a four-game win streak, two of those wins over the Astros and then the other two against Arizona. They've averaged more than seven runs per game during the win streak. The Tigers will start Tarik Skubal in tonight's opener. He has not been good in either start thus far, particularly the last one where he allowed six runs and three homers. Oakland is bound to turn around a 1-6 home record. Sean Manaea had a strong outing his last time on the mound as he held Houston to one run over six innings. Manaea has a 2.84 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Tigers. |
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04-15-21 | Mariners -110 v. Orioles | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: against Harvey Matt Harvey is pitching for somebody today. Seems like a good enough reason to be on the other side, whoever it is, given that the Orioles are a perpetually losing franchise. It happens to be the Mariners, who are 6-5. Although Seattle’s run differential is -11, Baltimore’s -9 isn’t much better. Harvey has a fine chance to put Bumgarner numbers. His first two outings for Baltimore: 4 2/3 innings, 6 hits and 1 walk; 5 innings, 7 hits and 1 walk. He has allowed 6 runs in his 10 2/3 innings and his ERA and WHIP of 5.59 and 1.55 would figure to stay where they are, or rise, during however long his tenure with the Orioles may last. Although Marco Gonzalez’s two starts have been worse than Harvey’s, they’ve been almost too bad to be believed given his overall decent form from 2018-20 with Seattle. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-14-21 | Phillies -117 v. Mets | 1-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Wheeler We were prepared to be against the Mets when Peterson was supposed to pitch against these Phillies on Monday when opposed by Chase Anderson. It didn’t happen due to rainout. They’re asking Peterson to beat Zach Wheeler this time, a tougher task, given that Wheeler and Aaron Nola are head-and-head for best pitcher on the Phillies. As noted on Monday, lefty Peterson, had a decent rookie season (6-2, 3.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). But he is now a candidate for the ol’ sophomore jinx. It started with his first outing, 4 innings of 7-hit, 6-run ball in Philadelphia last week (that’s what we call a “Madison Bumgarner game.”) The Phillies should not be saddened to see him again so soon. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-14-21 | Red Sox v. Twins -138 | 7-1 | Loss | -138 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Berrios |
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04-14-21 | Red Sox v. Twins -140 | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Berrios What’s a stopper for? To stop losing streaks. The Twins have lost three straight, two to the Mariners and one yesterday afternoon vs. these Red Sox. Their bullpen has been blowing things late. If it fails again, we can hate their bullpen and curse it for days. Jose Berrios is Minnesota’s ace, their stopper. He usually fades late in the season but last we looked, it’s still way early. The Twins are hitting .295 against left-handed pitchers (Rodriguez), #4 in MLB in that category. The Red Sox are hitting an MLB-leading .303 against right-handed pitching, but Berrios is no ordinary right-hander. He nohit the Brewers over 6 innings in his first start and has a 0.69 WHIP after two, with 20-3 K-BB. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-14-21 | Angels -118 v. Royals | 1-6 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: go against Keller The Angels find themselves atop the AL West, having dominated right-handed pitching up to this point (6-1, +$610, averaging 6.1 runs per game in those contests). Today they'll face off against Brad Keller, who has been rocked in two starts this year (19.31 ERA). LA has had 26 hits in the first two games of the series, so we'll lay the short price on the visitor in this afternoon's rubber match. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different that actual |
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04-13-21 | Reds +104 v. Giants | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Castillo The Reds won’t always be averaging as high as 6.9 runs per game but there’s no denying that they’ve been hitting a lot better than last season. And, even when they don’t hit much, like last night, they won a game 3-0. Luis Castillo is generally considered to be their best pitcher and tonight he’s available at underdog odds, throwing against a lineup whose subjects that have faced him have combined for a .119 Batting Average Against him — 4 hits in 31 at-bats. Kevin Gausman has thrown well in his two starts so far but the Giants didn’t hit well enough for him to get credit for a Win in either game, and they lost one of them. Cincinnati’s Joey Votto is 4-for-5 with a homer, Mike Moustakas 4-for-10 with a homer, Nick Castellano 4-for-16 but with 2 homers lifetime against Gausman. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-13-21 | Indians v. White Sox -105 | 2-0 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indians hit town yesterday 5-4 in first place in the American League Central division. The 5-4 record was all against Kansas City and Detroit, the two rear bringer- uppers from way back. Or, at least the last few seasons. Last night, Cleveland lost here to the White Sox. So now they’re 5-5. Although Shane Bieber is a mighty fine pitcher, Lucas Giolito has evolved into an upper echelon guy in his own right. Also, as the White Sox have ridden a gradual improvement curve with maturing young talent all over the roster, the Indians have divested themselves of a heck of a lot of proven Major League talent over the last few seasons. Last night, and their next 18 games, will all be against these White Sox, the first-place Reds, these White Sox again, the Yankees, the Twins, and these White Sox again. Gulp. We shall see, then, how this year’s version of the Indians stacks up against opponents for whom big things are expected. |
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04-13-21 | Nationals +106 v. Cardinals | 3-14 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Strasburg The Cardinals continued to struggle at the plate in last night's series opener, losing 5-2. Stephen Strasburg looked very sharp in his first outing of NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-12-21 | A's -125 v. Diamondbacks | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Madison Bumgarner has basically been a 4 1/3-inning, 7-hit, 6-run guy since being acquired by the Suckerba… er, the Diamondbacks. It’s not what they had in mind when they signed him for $80-something million for four years. He can cry all the way to the bank twice a month while the franchise cries every fifth day (and that’s when he’s not out injured). Arizona is 3-8 when he starts for them. Luke Weaver, who makes a lot less money than Bumgarner, took a no-hitter into the seventh inning yesterday for the D-Backs. In the typical Bumgarner performance, the no-hitter is ruined in the first inning, the shutout shortly thereafter, the chance of winning decreasing sharply by the time of his early exit. The A’s finally turned the wheel in their direction Friday and Saturday, first tripling runs 6-2 against Houston, then, when they beat the Astros 7-3, finally out-hitting somebody (11 to 9). Whatever invisible force that was holding them back in their first seven games may have been overcome. We can finally eyeball them as a legitimate wagering tool and not a ‘play against or pass’ type of entity. |
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04-12-21 | Marlins v. Braves -129 | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Miami's Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 1.50 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa (0-0, 0.00) in a battle of right-handers. The Braves are fresh from winning two of three games against the Philadelphia Phillies, losing 7-6 Sunday on a controversial ninth-inning sacrifice fly. Philadelphia's Alec Bohm appeared to miss home plate on his slide, but he was ruled safe and the call wasn't reversed after a replay review. Ynoa earned another shot as the team's No. 5 starter after his strong effort against the Washington Nationals on Wednesday. He threw a career-best five innings, and allowed no runs on two hits while striking out five. It was only the second time he has thrown more than three innings. Ynoa threw his fastball as high as 99 mph and averaged 96, and his slider, which he threw half the time, kept the Nationals baffled. |
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04-11-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals -124 | 9-3 | Loss | -124 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Ponce de Leon The Brewers pushed across an average of only 4.02 runs per game in 2020, #26 in the 30-team MLB. So far this season, they’re scoring less, 3.62 runs per game. The pitcher they face, Daniel Ponce de Leon, has been near dominant against them in limited exposure: 36 at bats, 3 singles allowed, 15 Ks to 4 BB. That’s a .057 Batting Average, .157 OPS. The Cardinals’ Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmitt are hitting .556 and .400 against Brewers’ starter Brett Anderson. That’s a tough 2-3 in the home team’s batting order for the guy to try to get past. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-11-21 | Mariners +165 v. Twins | 8-6 | Win | 165 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Flexen Pitchers who’ve escaped the misery of being a Met are doing rather well. Steven Matz is 2-0 with Toronto and Chris Flexen pitched 5 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball vs. the Giants in his first start for the Mariners last Saturday. He’s mostly a mystery to the Twins batters, who’ve never faced him at this level. Matt Shoemaker won’t always get 15 runs worth of support while pitching in his hometown against the team he’s dominated (Detroit), as was the case in his last start. Although Shoemaker pitched in Seattle’s division with the Angels, only Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger have ever faced him. Seager must be thinking, ‘Yeah, you’re that ordinary guy with the long black beard and if a mediocre veteran like me, a .255 lifetime hitter who actually hasn’t hit for an average that high since 2016 could hit 2 home runs against you in his career, then my teammates should be able to tag you well enough.’ NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-11-21 | Tigers v. Indians -169 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Allen Allen, who won a rotation spot with the Cleveland Indians in spring training, will make his second start this season against the visiting Detroit Tigers today. The lone left-hander in the rotation, Allen held Kansas City to two runs in five innings on Monday but was charged with the loss as the Indians were blanked. Allen prepared himself for a run at a rotation spot by shedding weight and working on his mechanics. The result was an 0.64 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 14 spring training innings. Allen became Cleveland's first left-handed starter since Ryan Merritt in 2017. He retired nine of the last 10 batters he faced. Jose Urena will start for Detroit. Urena's Tigers debut on Monday was a disaster, as he allowed six runs (five earned) and four hits with four walks in three innings to Minnesota. Cleveland has slugged its way to victories in the first two games of the series. Designated hitter Franmil Reyes has blasted three homers, and the Indians clubbed a total of five long balls in their 11-3 win on Saturday. NOTE: Do not play it pitcher is different than actual |
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04-10-21 | Padres v. Rangers +143 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Padres are 2-3 in their last five games, went to extra innings for one of the wins, and their run production in those five games maxed out at 3. That’s stretching it very thin for a -175 road favorite, wouldn’t you say? Major offensive cog Fernando Tatis is out injured after he hurt his shoulder swinging. Derek Jeter never went on the DL after swinging at a pitch, did he? Just curious. Cal Ripken, Jr.? That ever happen to him? Don’t think so! Major league ballplayers of the 21st century, what a group, eh? Anyway, the Rangers were swept in a four game series at San Diego last year and one of the losses was 14-4, started by tonight’s starter Jordan Lyles. Tatis drove in 7 of the 14 runs. His absence might have a negative effect, right? Based on their scoring average recently, it looks that way. Lyles gets another shot at the team that cast him aside in 2018. |
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04-10-21 | A's v. Astros -149 | 7-3 | Loss | -149 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Urquidy (0-0, 4.15 ERA) will start the series finale for the Astros on Saturday. He allowed two runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts over 4 1/3 innings in his season debut on April 4, a 9-2 victory over Oakland, marking the 13th time in 15 career appearances that Urquidy has allowed two or fewer runs. Right-hander Frankie Montas (0-1, 23.63 ERA) gets the start for Oakland. He took the loss in his season debut April 5 against the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing seven runs on seven hits and three walks with four strikeouts over 2 2/3 innings. Montas has dropped three consecutive starts dating to last season and is 4-3 with a 4.50 ERA in nine career appearances (seven starts) against the Astros. |
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04-09-21 | A's v. Astros -163 | 6-2 | Loss | -163 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Although the A’s were once again outhit last night, it wasn’t by twice as many. Only 8 to 6. But the Astros tripled runs against them, 6-2. A 1-7 Oakland team consistently outhit, consistently outscored, can’t be anything but a go-against target until they get the wheel turned in their direction. They’re hitting .170 as a team, to Houston’s .289. They have 3 home runs and 10 doubles in 8 games, to Houston’s MLB-leading 15 homers with 17 doubles in 7 games. Five of the seven Astros games have been against Oakland pitching, which Dusty Baker’s boys have been feasting upon and finding to be super delicious. |
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04-09-21 | Padres -173 v. Rangers | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Musgrove The Padres came into 2021 expecting to challenge the Dodgers for NL West supremacy. However, things have gone a bit sideways since a 3-0 start. Not only have they lost three of four, but Fernando Tatis Jr suffered when appears to be a significant shoulder injury. Still, we expect San Diego to easily defeat the Rangers on Friday. Padres' pitching has been great thus far as a 1.97 ERA leads the National league. Joe Musgrove gets the starting nod here after throwing six shutout innings in his first outing. He allowed just three hits, no walks and had eight strikeouts, leading to a 7-0 win over Arizona. Although they have won three of their last four games, Texas is not going to be a good team this year. Kohei Arihara makes his second start after the first resulted in an 11-4 loss to Kansas City. The Rangers were 0-4 vs. San Diego last season, giving up a grand slam in every game. Don't overthink this one. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-09-21 | Phillies +114 v. Braves | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Wheeler Charlie Morton is a pretty good pitcher but of tonight’s two starters, Zach Wheeler is the guy more likely to get through the opposing lineup one more time than the other if both are pitching to their best form. It already happened six days ago in Philadelphia when Wheeler threw 7 innings of 1-hit, shutout ball (with 10 Ks, 0 BB) against the Braves as Morton went 5 innings, giving up 6 hits and 3 runs. Last season, Wheeler finally learned how to beat the Braves after leaving the Mets, a franchise that has developed a chronic habit of losing to Atlanta, and he didn’t slack off in his first crack at them this season. He was born and raised in the Atlanta area, a little extra miscellaneous thingie that flies under the radar. Bryce Harper can slap an ownership tag on Morton: 7-for-12 lifetime with 6 RBIs. Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman is hitting .447 lifetime against Wheeler but Freddie Freeman is last season’s NL Most Valuable Player, who obviously thought he could wave the award in front of pitchers this season and repeat as he enters this game 2-for-18 (.111). Most of the Braves’ bats have been quiet; the team has a .170 batting average with a .552 OPS, both numbers third lowest in MLB. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-08-21 | A's v. Astros -144 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It is with determined anger and revenge that we do this after the A’s were once again out-hit (8-5) but managed to win their first game of the season last night, 4-3 in extra innings as the Dodgers decided it wasn’t necessary to play Mookie Betts or Cody Bellinger. We go against this 1-6 team as it hits the road to face the opponent that just swept them 4-0 at home, outscoring them 35-9 in the process. Sure, that was an over-the-top dominance, but it’s not like the A’s lineup has done anything so far that would give anybody serious confidence in it, and the pitchers have mostly been bad. |
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04-08-21 | Angels +103 v. Blue Jays | 7-5 | Win | 103 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Play Against Stripling National League pitcher comes to the American League. They often leave a trail of devastation against their new teams. Ross Stripling’s first few outings for the Blue Jays after they acquired him late last season produced a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Lovely. The Yankees knocked him out after 3 1/3 innings last week. The Angels have seen him before, although not last season. Mike Trout is 5-for-7 against Stripling, so if nobody else does anything — not likely — Trout is capable of carrying them. For this current period, Blue Jays’ ‘home’ games are being played at their spring training site in the great, courageous state of Florida that everyone should admire. However, if you read somewhere that this will give Toronto some sort of an advantage because they “know the ballpark,” please burn the paper or smash the computer screen and ignore that nonsense. People who should know better were saying the same things prior to last season when the Texas Rangers moved into a new ballpark they’d practiced in, then proceeded to be the worst team in Major League Baseball. Do Not Play if Pitcher is Different than Actual |
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04-08-21 | Royals v. White Sox -166 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Lynn Matheny will send Brad Keller to the mound for his second start. Keller lasted 1 1/3 innings against the Rangers on Opening Day. Keller allowed six runs on nine hits, but he didn't get the decision because the Royals came back twice and eventually won 14-10. La Russa will hand the ball to Lance Lynn, who pitched for Matheny with the Cardinals from 2012-17. He was 71-46 in those six seasons. The White Sox are his fourth team since leaving St. Louis. He pitched 4 2/3 innings, allowing two runs (none earned) on six hits in his first start for Chicago on Saturday. He struck out six and didn't walk a batter in the 5-3 loss to the Angels. The White Sox are still carrying a hot bat in Yermin Mercedes, who set a major league record with hits in his first eight career at-bats. Do Not Play if Pitcher is Different than Actual |
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04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -102 | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Senzatela Former Giants’ ace Madison Bumgarner signed a five year, $85 million contract with the Arizona Suckerbac… er, Diamondbacks, before last season. He ‘followed through’ on it by totaling only 41 2/3 innings in nine starts, with a 1.44 WHIP and 6.48 ERA. Their best pitcher Zac Gallen has been hurt, so they allowed Bumgarner make his customary opening day start, in which he gave them more of the same slop for their money: 4 innings of 7-hit, 6-run ball with 2 home runs allowed at San Diego. He didn’t pitch in Coors Field last year. For the Giants in 2019, he totaled 11 innings in two starts at Coors, allowing 16 hits and 8 runs, and that’s when he was doing all right overall. Rockies’ starter Antonio Senzatela was owned by the Dodgers here last week. Who isn’t? In five home starts last season, he had a 2.10 ERA in this ballpark and draws an easier assignment this evening. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-07-21 | Dodgers -157 v. A's | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Bauer Could there be a more seemingly impossible scenario than being 0-6, getting hits doubled against you every night, runs doubled against you or more than doubled, and needing lefty Jose Lose-Ardo to come through for the team’s first win? Anything’s possible, but last night was a continuation of a terrible string of early games for Oakland (we’d call it “start” to the season but the start was over last week and now it’s Game 7), the latest of which was 5-1 Dodgers, who out-hit the A’s 11 to 5 last night. Oh, and we almost forgot, the pitcher they need to beat is Trevor Bauer, who had a 0.79 WHIP last season, 100-17 K-BB, and allowed 3 runs on 4 hits over 6 1/3 innings at Coors Field last weekend while making his first start in a Dodgers’ uniform. His new teammates push across nearly twice as many runs per game as the Reds’ batters did for him in 2020. Luzardo…ugh. Maybe he’ll improve, but for now the phrase, “Just put it over the plate and let ‘em hit it” seems to have been invented for him. NOTE: Do Not Play if Pitcher is Different Than Actual |
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04-07-21 | Brewers v. Cubs -111 | 4-2 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Hendricks After delivering a 2.88 ERA in 12 starts last season and finishing ninth in National League Cy Young voting, Hendricks will look to improve in his second home start. He did not have a start shorter than 4 1/3 innings last season. In 23 career starts against the Brewers, Hendricks is 9-6 with a sparkling 2.84 ERA over 136 1/3 innings. It is his most starts and innings pitched against any team in his career. Run support for Hendricks will be a priority after the Cubs had just a fourth-inning double from Kris Bryant on Tuesday. Peralta gave the Brewers five scoreless innings, Brent Suter had three and Brad Boxberger had a scoreless ninth in his Brewers debut. Consider that Chicago is 70-29 in their last 99 home games vs. a team with a losing record. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-06-21 | White Sox -136 v. Mariners | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Giolito The White Sox destroyed lefty starters last season and are already 2-0 against them this year. Stats like that tend to fluctuate from year to year but hey, sometimes they stay the same for a while. Only three Mariners have ever faced Lucas Giolito, none of them since he got really good because the White Sox and Mariners didn’t play each other in 2020 and his last game against them was in April, 2019, his second start of that year, before he hit his best stride in what was his breakout season. NOTE: Do not play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers -160 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units What’d we say yesterday? Something about the winless Oakland A’s getting hits and runs doubled against them, right? By the end of last night’s game against the Dodgers, hits were 14 to 6 for LA, runs 10 to 3. Say, that’s more than doubled! Tonight, the Oakland batters must face Clayton Kershaw, who we hear has been a pretty good pitcher for most of his career. He is coming off a loss at Coors Field — not the first pretty good pitcher to have been hammered by the home team in that ballpark. Won’t be the last. Eventually, the A’s will stop losing games by 7 or 8 runs a night but until that begins to take shape, why expect Chris Bassitt to hound the Dodgers? |
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04-06-21 | Pirates v. Reds -152 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Reds are going for their first 4-1 start since 2016. They've won three in a row and just opened this series with a seventh consecutive home victory over the Pirates, 5-3 yesterday. During the three-game win streak, the Reds have outscored opponents 26-10. Pittsburgh is 1-3 and hoping to avoid its first 1-4 start since 2015. They've lost three in a row and are widely expected to be the worst team in all of baseball. So betting against them early in the season (when prices are still relatively low) would be wise. They have scored all of 12 runs so far. Ke'Bryan Hayes, who was going to be the centerpiece of the lineup, is on the 10-day DL. Veteran Wade Miley is on the hill for the Reds today. Given the Pirates' issues scoring runs, this should be a relatively easy outing. The Reds' bullpen has also been great so far (2.55 ERA, 0.91 WHIP). Pittsburgh is 18-38 its L56 games vs. a LH starter. Trevor Cahill starts opposite Miley. He is 0-2 vs. Cincy in 15 career appearances and did not get in a lot of reps during Spring Training. |
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04-05-21 | Dodgers -150 v. A's | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: May The A’s pitchers allowed 8, 9, 9, 9 runs to the Houston hitters going 0-4 on this field last weekend and now the Dodgers are knocking on the door. Okay, good luck with that. Frankie Montas is a better pitcher than anybody we know personally but he’s a guy with a 1.51 WHIP from last season pitching against one of MLB’s top run producing lineups, backed by a bullpen that hasn’t done anything right yet . Moving from Coors Field to Oco Coliseum surely reduces the potential for the Dodgers to pile on the runs, but it hasn’t aided Oakland’s ability to produce them — only 9 in four games against the Astros. LA starter Dustin May was matched against Montas at Dodger Stadium last season in a game won by the Dodgers, 7-2, when they out-hit the A’s 11 to 5. Didn’t we win a game against the A’s a couple of days ago after noting that their hits were being doubled by Astros hits? Do Not Play if Pitcher is different than actual |
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04-05-21 | Astros +106 v. Angels | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitcher: Garcia ‘Angels’ Jose Quintana dominating in Cactus League play.’ That’s nice, Cactus League references. But tonight, a guy who’d been injured in 2019, then made only one (1) start in 2020, makes his first start as an Angel, a franchise that will take a chance on any pitcher because none of them ever work out for them and they’ve been so desperate that they actually signed Matt Harvey two years ago, and went to Japan for a pitcher who also plays the field and bats. They will let anyone pitch for them in hopes he can get people out. Quintana faces the hottest lineup going. Hopefully, the 4-0 Astros won’t be in mourning about not being allowed to stay in Oakland to continue to pound that pitching staff into submission. Do Not Play if Pitcher is different than actual |
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04-05-21 | Pirates v. Reds -143 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nick Castellanos' strong start is a big reason the Cincinnati Reds won their season-opening series against the St. Louis Cardinals. He also has been very good against the Pittsburgh Pirates during his career. Castellanos looks to stay hot and help the Reds to a third straight win against the Pirates at home on tonight. Cincinnati totaled 27 runs, 30 hits and belted six home runs while taking two of three from NL Central Division-favorite St. Louis. According to Elias Sports Bureau, it's the third time the Reds have scored at least that many runs through the first three games of a season. It's an especially strong start after the Reds ranked last in the majors in batting (.212) and 28th in average runs per game (4.05) in 2020. Castellanos went 6-for-11 with a pair of homers, a double, triple, six runs scored and five RBIs during the opening set. |
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04-04-21 | Pirates v. Cubs -173 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (1-1, 2.91 ERA in 2020) is scheduled to oppose Zach Davies (7-4, 2.73 ERA in 2020) in a battle of right-handers. Keller, who turns 25 today, is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts against the Cubs. Consider that Pittsburgh is 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Chicago. |
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04-04-21 | Twins v. Brewers +102 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Twins’ ace Jose Berrios outdueled Brewers’ up-and-coming Corbin Burns yesterday in a 2-0 win but now Minnesota has used new closer Alex Colome in both games, making him a question mark for today. For our money, the Brewers had the better bullpen to start and would have the better bullpen to finish this particular game. The Milwaukee batters who’ve accumulated 73 at-bats against Michael Pineda have a .332 batting average, .520 Slugging Percentage, .887 OPS against him. An example of how good the Milwaukee bullpen can be: In Houser’s one start vs. Minnesota last season, a 4-2 loss, he allowed a third-inning grand slam to Edwin Rosario. Following Houser’s exit after 5 innings, Freddie Peralta pitched 4 innings of 1-hit, 8-0 K-BB shutout ball. |
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04-04-21 | Rangers v. Royals -163 | 7-3 | Loss | -163 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units w/ Singer The Rangers will send Jordan Lyles to the mound Sunday as he tries to prove his 1-6 season in 2020 was not the pitcher he can be. He finished 2019 with a 7-1 record in his final 11 starts with Milwaukee, prompting the Rangers to sign him as a free agent following the season. But Lyles struggled throughout 2020, with a 1.56 WHIP. Manager Chris Woodward has decided to use him in a "tandem" role, piggybacking him with another pitcher to use up the innings normally assigned to the starter. For the Royals, Brady Singer will try to prove that the high expectations that come from a first-round selection in the 2018 draft and his debut two seasons later was the right choice. Singer had a solid 2020, finishing with a 4-5 record and a 4.06 ERA. But he finished strong, winning three of his last four, including allowing just one hit in eight innings in Cleveland. He then backed it up with a strong spring, going 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA in four starts. In his last spring start, against Cleveland, he allowed just two hits -- only one out of the infield -- in five innings, striking out five against just one walk. Do Not Play if Pitcher is different than actual |
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04-04-21 | Indians v. Tigers +115 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units w/ Skukal Indians starter Aaron Civale was 4-6 with a 4.74 ERA last season, during which — it is reported — he “led” the American League in hits allowed (80), highest batting average against (.282), and tied for the league “lead” in hits allowed per nine innings (10.0). A pitcher doesn’t want to “lead” the league in any of these categories. Cleveland was 5-7 in Civale’s starts last season. And yet, they are favored at Comerica after losing the first two games of this series while totaling only 4 runs on 13 hits. When Civale “beat” the Tigers 10-5 last season, he allowed 8 hits and 4 runs in 6 innings, K-ing only 3. He happened to be matched against Ivan Nova on a bad day for Nova, whose bad days are worse than most other guys’ bad days. Tarik Skubal has no grand following but as a 24-year-old lefty with minimum exposure to the ordinary-hitting Indians (for 2 1/3 of his 32 rookie innings last year, 3 hits and 1 run allowed with 5 Ks and 1 BB), why not him? Do Not Play if pitcher is different than actual |
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04-03-21 | White Sox v. Angels +112 | 3-5 | Win | 112 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Major League mercenary Lance Lynn, making his first start for his fifth team (fifth in last five seasons) faced the Angels three times last season. The White Sox haven’t faced Alex Cobb since Moby Dick was a minnow, or, May of 2019 to be exact. Before that, it was September of 2016. Lots o’ water under those bridges. The home underdog knows what’s coming at them better than the road favorite does. The current members of the White Sox have combined for only 24 at-bats against Cobb. The White Sox brutalized lousy lefty Andrew Heaney yesterday, continuing their southpaw-shellacking trend of 2020. But they lost 4-3 Thursday when the Angels started righty Dylan Bundy, who threw a quality start against them. Play only with Cobb |
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04-03-21 | Astros -136 v. A's | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On a very hot, dry day at the neutral site of Dodger Stadium, Houston’s Lance McCullers had a bad post-season outing against the A’s last October, giving up three home runs among 8 hits and 5 runs in 4 innings. But we can use yesterday’s rallying cry with a slight adjustment: ‘Who won the game? Houston!’ They simply out-hit the A’s that day, 16 to 8, and outscored them 10-5. Very nice ratio, twice as many hits and twice as many runs. In that Play only with McCullers |
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04-02-21 | Rays +103 v. Marlins | 6-4 | Win | 103 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: Units The Marlins were underdog darlings last season. But when a team makes the post-season with a -41 run differential, people tend to miss the negative run differential part and see only ‘Hey, they’ll definitely improve now, because, well, I don’t know why, just because!’ Tonight, the superior team that played in the World Series last season lays only a teeny bit against a teeny-tiny home dog with much to prove, especially at the plate. The Marlins haven’t scored a run yet. Hard to win if you can’t score. Joey Wendle didn’t play for the Rays yesterday. He’s not injured or sick. He figures to be in the lineup tonight against Miami starter Pablo Lopez, because he’s 4-for-8 against him with a double and a homer. Ryan Yarbrough pitched 6 2/3 innings of 4-hit, shutout ball on this field last August in a 2-0 Rays win. Don Not Play if Yarbrough does not pitch |
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04-01-21 | Rangers v. Royals -153 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 2 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Play with Keller Both these teams finished near the bottom of the standings last year, and neither team is likely to be a factor in 2020. But the Royals got a boost from Brad Keller in 2020, who managed a 2.47 ERA in nine starts for KC (+$525). Texas was a dismal 6-24 outside of Arlington (-$1515) while the Royals were profitable vs. righties here at Kaufman Stadium. Look for the Royals to break through with an opening day win. |
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10-14-20 | Rays -130 v. Astros | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 4 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Glasnow, 27, has provided good theatre by striking out 20 batters in 13 1/3 innings this postseason for the Rays, who have won each of his last 11 starts including the playoffs. Glasnow also won his lone career regular-season encounter against Houston after permitting one run on six hits in five innings in 2019. George Springer is 2-for-3 in a small sample size versus Glasnow, but Michael Brantley (0-for-8, two strikeouts) hasn't been as fortunate. Houston right-hander Zack Greinke will get the nod on Wednesday. The former AL Cy Young Award winner surrendered a pair of home runs and four runs total in 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision against the Oakland A's on Thursday. Greinke owns a 4-6 record with a 3.36 ERA in 17 career appearances (14 starts) versus Tampa Bay |
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10-11-20 | Astros +134 v. Rays | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The Astros saw Snell three times in last year's ALDS, beating him 3-1 in Game 2 behind a homer by Bregman and the pitching of Gerrit Cole. Snell's other two appearances were in relief, including getting two outs and a save in Game 4. Snell also started once against Houston last year in the regular season, allowing homers to Altuve, Brantley and Springer on a 5-1 loss on Opening Day. He was opposed that time by Justin Verlander. The Astros lost Cole in free agency last offseason and won't have Verlander in this series following Tommy John surgery. Overall for his career, Snell has made six starts against the Astros in the regular season, going 2-2 with a 4.73 ERA. Snell (1-1) has opened both previous series for the Rays, beating Toronto 3-1 in Tampa Bay's 2-0 sweep before losing 9-3 to the Yankees in what turned out to be a five-game series. Valdez (2-0), meanwhile, had a Game 1 win in the Minnesota series and a Game 2 victory in the Oakland series, allowing just two runs and seven hits in 12 innings. The 26-year-old has never faced the Rays, who will be making their first ALCS appearance since beating Boston 4-3 en route to the 2008 World Series. |
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10-06-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -160 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Walker Buehler is expected to get the start here. The Padres were held to 2 or less runs in half of their ten games against the Dodgers this season. Buehler is 24-9 with a 3.15 ERA in his career. He held opponents to a .178 batting average this season. In his 7 post-season starts Buehler has a 2.90 ERA and a .170 BAA. The Padres rallied to get by the Cardinals in the Wild Card round but face a much tougher test here |
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10-06-20 | Astros -107 v. A's | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Astros are heating up at the right time, first sweeping Minnesota in the Wild Card round before winning the opener of this best-of-five ALDS against Oakland. The Astros look to keep rolling today with left-hander Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) on the mound. Valdez held Minnesota to a pair of hits when working five innings out of the bullpen last Tuesday. He held Oakland to one earned run with nine Ks through seven frames earlier this season. As for A's starter Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.50 ERA), the left-hander has not pitched since September 23 and has allowed six runs on 13 hits in 11 2/3 innings in his last two starts. Consider: Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 Divisional Playoff games. Athletics are 2-7 in their last 9 playoff games |
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10-05-20 | Yankees -143 v. Rays | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New York's Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA) allowed two runs and struck out 13 in his victory over the Tribe. Cole has now allowed just five earned runs over his last five games. Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24) allowed seven runs over his last five starts for the Rays. Snell was sharp in his win over the Jays, allowing one hit over 5.1 innings, but he will have his hands full with this healthy and hard-hitting New York line-up. Snell has the propensity to give up the long-ball, which clearly doesn't bode well facing this talented opposing line-up. |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's -129 | 10-5 | Loss | -129 | 4 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A's figure to have the advantage in Game 1, which will be played at Dodger Stadium. McCullers was sharp down the stretch but hasn't started since 9/26. So, its been a layoff. Bassitt, who started Game 2 against the White Sox, was excellent all season and downright dominant down the stretch. He was 3-0 with a 0.34 ERA in September |
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09-30-20 | Brewers v. Dodgers -215 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Los Angeles enters these playoffs as the overwhelming favorite to win the World Series, and for good reason, as they had the best record and run differential in all of baseball during the regular season. They outscored teams by 136 runs in 60 games. Buehler gets the start in Game 1. He had a 0.67 WHIP at home this year and a 7-1 TSR overall. Milwaukee is a sub-.500 team that didn't even score more than three runs in any of its last eight games. Their Game 1 starter, Lindblom, has a 6.11 ERA on the road! |
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09-29-20 | Yankees -103 v. Indians | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Bieber has an 8.31 ERA in two career starts against the Yankees and Cole is 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA in five career starts vs the Indians (teams are 3-2). In 2019, Cole posted a 4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston. What's more, his final three starts of the current season saw him go 3-0 while pitching seven innings in each one. He gave up a modest 10 hits over those 21 innings and two ERs for a 0.67 ERA and a 24-3 KW ratio |
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09-21-20 | Cardinals -177 v. Royals | 1-4 | Loss | -177 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in SEVEN of his eight starts (Cards are 6-2). He's pitched at least six innings in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). Wainwright has pitched well against the Royals in his 15-year MLB career, going 5-2 with a 3.96 ERA in 13 games (10 starts / Cards are 6-4). In fact, that's the most appearances and starts against any American League team, with the exception of the Astros, who were in the National League for the first seven years of Wainwright's career. |
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09-21-20 | Brewers v. Reds -124 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Brewers posted three runs -- one earned -- with five hits, and walked four times and struck out nine over six innings against scheduled Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA) during a 3-2 win on Aug. 25. Castillo, though, has been stellar in September, going 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA. The right-hander allowed three hits and struck out 10 with a walk over seven innings of a 1-0 win against Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Milwaukee's Ryan Braun is 1-for-12 against Castillo. Milwaukee is 1-7 its last eight road games vs. a right-handed starter. Cincinnati has won its last six home games vs. righties |
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09-21-20 | White Sox +107 v. Indians | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland right-hander Aaron Civale (3-5, 3.80 ERA) is searching for a spark after posting an 0-3 record in his last five trips to the mound. Civale, who last won on Aug. 19 following a complete-game gem, sports a 2-2 record with a 3.38 ERA in four career outings against Chicago. The 25-year-old allowed one run on five hits in seven innings of a hard-luck 2-0 setback on Aug. 7. Chicago right-hander Dane Dunning (2-0, 2.33 ERA) has made quite the impact since entering the majors. Dunning recorded his second straight win on Tuesday after allowing two runs (one earned) over seven innings in a 6-2 victory against Minnesota. The White Sox have won all five of Dunning's starts. The 25-year-old will be getting his first look at Cleveland in his career on today. |