Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-20-21 | Twins v. Yankees -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota rookie lefty Charlie Barnes probably will be a bit intimidated in his first-ever start at Yankee Stadium, and he was roughed up in his lone road start so far (Cincinnati). On the flip side, Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. continues to surprise and has a 1.45 home ERA. |
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08-19-21 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Going to jump this one early as a few books have already seen the total drop to 8 and that half-run could easily be the difference. It's Cy Young favorite Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phils, and he loves pitching during the day (1.43 ERA). Arizona's Madison Bumgarner has been one of the NL's best pitchers since the All-Star break. Educated guess: Phils All-Star catcher JT Realmuto (and maybe another regular) sits out this getaway game ahead of a big series in San Diego. |
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08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even at a big price of -160, going to take Tigers +1.5 runline as a safety net (they probably win outright) only as I believe they will be -1.5 by the morning because the Angels scratched starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has been quite good. He's headed to the injured list. In his place will be lefty Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.12). He has been decent as a reliever this year but awful starting (7.22 ERA). The Tigers are five games over .500 vs. southpaws -- have won their past four -- and their rookie pitcher, Matt Manning, has been much better at home. |
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08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -155 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On Monday, the Dodgers did not light up the scoreboard, scoring just two runs against Pittsburgh. After completing a six-game road trip and a late Sunday flight from New York, that offensive struggle was expected. On Tuesday, L.A.'s bats should be back in order against the struggling Pirates and pitcher Will Crowe. Since the money line price is heavy, take the better price with the run line. Play the Dodgers. |
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08-17-21 | Padres -105 v. Rockies | 3-7 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Amidst several injuries, the Padres will start Matt Strahm as an opener for Tuesday’s game against the Rockies. He likely won’t pitch beyond a couple of innings, lessening the impact of his high ERA (8.44). Although the Rockies have been effective at home, pitcher German Marquez has struggled since the All-Star break. Take the Padres at even money. |
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08-17-21 | Brewers -152 v. Cardinals | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On Tuesday, the Brewers start their third straight road series, at St. Louis. Pitching for the Cardinals will be Adam Wainwright, who is coming off a complete game shutout over the Pirates. He’s also been magnificent against the Brewers, winning four of his last five starts. But I expect yesterday’s off day to be beneficial for Milwaukee, led by pitcher Corbin Burnes. Take the Brewers. |
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08-17-21 | Angels v. Tigers -129 | 8-2 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Could be history tonight as Detroit's Miguel Cabrera is one homer shy of 500 career. The Tigers were off Monday and are 7-1 in their past eight following an off day, but this is more about fading the Angels, who are playing in their third city in three nights (Anaheim, New York, Detroit), and their pitcher, Dylan Bundy. He is 2-9 with 6.21 ERA in 17 starts this year and 1-6 with a 7.48 ERA in night games. I expect this ML to rise a bit during the day. |
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08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -162 | 2-1 | Loss | -162 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cubs have now lost 12 straight games and they are 21-41 on the road. They are 1-15 since the trade deadline and Kyle Hendricks was hit hard by the Reds the last time he faced them, and hit hard by the Brewers in his last start. Vladimir Gutierrez is 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA in August and he pitched well against the Cubs both times he faced them this season. The Reds didn’t need to use any of their best relievers last night and now they are just 1.5 games out of the Wild Card. As long as we keep getting a ML under -200 against the Cubs, we are taking it. Especially when they’re on the road. |
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08-17-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -113 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Yankees are on fire right now but the Red Sox have owned this matchup so far this season. This will be the first matchup since the trade deadline and with the Yankees just 1.5 games back, you know Yankee Stadium will be rockin. Jordan Montgomery has faced the Red Sox three times this season and was one out away from three quality starts. Tanner Houck has been good but he struggles with walks and he doesn’t get deep into games. Take the value on the Yankees at home. |
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08-16-21 | Mets +189 v. Giants | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mets are in for a challenge against the Giants. On Sunday night, they were trounced 14-4 at home by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a prime-time spot. Now they travel across the country to face the best team in majors. Look for a better effort from New York, which has been priced based on its underachieving play since the All-Star break. Play the Mets. |
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08-16-21 | Padres v. Rockies +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We've said this over and over, but no team is better at home on the runline than Colorado. I get you can't really favor the Rockies over a very good Padres team, but I'll happily take +1.5 at only -125. San Diego pitcher Ryan Weathers has been absolutely obliterated in his past three starts overall and has a 9.00 ERA in three outings vs. Colorado -- which is above .500 vs. lefties. Rox starter Antonio Senzatela is nothing special but always pitches better in Denver. The Friars are 1-5 in their past six as road favorites. |
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08-16-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Should the Indians even be underdogs? I'm not sure they should, but I'll take the +1.5 runline gift behind Cal Quantrill. While the Tribe lost his last outing, it wasn't Quantrill's fault as he allowed just two earned over six -- his sixth straight start allowing two earned or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Griffin Jax has a 6.14 ERA at home. The Twins are just 3-10 in their past 13 following a win. |
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08-16-21 | A's v. White Sox +102 | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chicago LHP Dallas Keuchel makes his first start against a non-divisional opponent since before the All-Star break. Expect that to be beneficial for Keuchel, as he has recorded just one win since June 15. Back the White Sox as they bounce back after having lost four of their previous five contests. |
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08-16-21 | Braves -160 v. Marlins | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Braves continue their road trip with the opener of a three-game series in Miami. Atlanta has been one of the hottest teams in baseball as it has won 10 of 12, a stretch that has catapulted the team into first place in the National League East. Expect the momentum to continue as the Marlins four-game winning streak comes to a halt. |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers -172 v. Mets | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Max Scherzer has been excellent since coming to the Dodgers and may have a bit more on his fastball today as his last start was only 3.1 innings due to rain. In his career at Citi Field, he is 9-2 with a 2.03 ERA. New York's Carlos Carrasco has not been great in his three outings after missing a ton of time with a torn hamstring. Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner is back in the starting lineup after a groin injury kept him out a few games (did pinch-hit Saturday). |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -169 | 5-3 | Loss | -169 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The White Sox thrive against lefties and face Yanks southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. He had largely been a great rotation fill in but has been a bit shaky of late and his road ERA is two points higher than at Yankee Stadium. Chicago's Lucas Giolito has allowed two earned or fewer in five of his past six. |
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08-14-21 | Blue Jays -134 v. Mariners | 3-9 | Loss | -134 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday featured one of the strangest ninth innings on the year in MLB between the Blue Jays and Mariners. Seattle stole the win as big underdogs with a bases-loaded, walk-off victory. Yet, on Saturday night look for the Blue Jays to snap out of their two-game funk of three runs or less against lefty Yusei Kikuchi. Play the Blue Jays. |
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08-14-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -134 | 7-5 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am trying to figure out if there may be a hangover from that incredible Field of Dreams game. Unprecedented obviously. So I'll just take the Sox here because Dylan Cease has been so good at home and the Yanks are still without all the players why we bet against them on Thursday (and nearly had a stroke). Rare sellout on South Side and I do think that matters slightly. |
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08-14-21 | Cardinals +105 v. Royals | 9-4 | Win | 105 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The sporadic St. Louis Cardinals surprisingly have the second best win streak in MLB at four. To reach at fifth straight win, Jon Lester must overcome his woeful first two starts as a Cardinal. Expect a lot of runs as St. Louis drew five walks and scored five runs against Royals pitcher Brad Keller last Saturday. Take the team with momentum in St. Louis. |
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08-14-21 | Cubs v. Marlins -150 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If you listen (watch? not a tech guy) the Early Edge, you know I am Cubs Fade central. They will obviously win a game or two and burn us but will still be super profitable fading the rest of the way. Won't get prices much lower than this. I don't really see that happening here. Marlins pitcher Zach Thompson has a 2.45 home ERA. |
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08-13-21 | Astros -126 v. Angels | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While Angels pitcher Patrick Sandoval has been pretty good, I'm surprised this ML is so low on Houston behind Zack Greinke (10-3, 3.69). He's 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA on the road and has a 2.57 ERA in two starts vs. the Angels. Houston also is expecting back first baseman Yuli Gurriel (.324, 12 HR, 66 RBI) off the injured list. Sandoval allowed four runs in two innings in his lone 2021 outing vs. Houston. The Astros, who destroy lefties, also have the benefit of being off Thursday, while the Angels had to use closer Raisel Iglesias for 1.1 innings so he may not be available. |
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08-13-21 | A's -158 v. Rangers | 6-8 | Loss | -158 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A's have won seven straight. They should be even bigger favorites against a Texas team that's lost eight of nine while getting outscored 49-18. The Rangers rank dead last in OPS versus lefties (.641); tonight they face lefty Cole Irvin, who allowed two runs on four hits over seven innings in a 12-3 rout of Texas last Saturday. Coming off an ankle injury, Texas' Dane Dunning is making his first start since Aug. 2. Lay it as Oakland improves to 38-15 in its last 53 versus the Rangers. |
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08-13-21 | Cubs v. Marlins -112 | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are trash, but the Cubs are Lollapalooza last day porta potty sewage at this point, having lost eight in a row -- the past seven by multiple runs. Now Willson Contreras is out. Chicago also had to travel Thursday while the Fish were off. Cubs pitcher Adbert Alzolay actually looks like a potential part of the future but is 1-7 with a 5.06 ERA on the road. |
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08-11-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -110 | 8-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I enjoy being the contrarian among the experts when apt and will be on this game. Was on Boston on Tuesday as well and felt safe with the Sox up 4-1 entering the sixth only for the bullpen to implode. Now five back in the division and almost caught by the third-place Yankees, this feels like desperation time for the Sox. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi has been a bit inconsistent of late but can dominate and leads the AL in fewest homers allowed per nine innings. He also has been much better at home (3.42 ERA). On the flip side, Tampa lefty Josh Fleming has a 6.39 road ERA. Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Bobby Dalbec are a combined 7-for-11 off him with two HRs. Not betting the total, but consider this: In each of the last 11 meetings between these teams at Fenway Park, they have combined to score at least 10 runs. |
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08-11-21 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 2 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units the Fish are missing leadoff man and terrific rookie second baseman Jazz Chisholm (IL) and slugging first baseman Jesus Aguilar (.266, 20 HR, 79 RBI) is not starting today. San Diego is of course down Fernando Tatis Jr. and is resting Tommy Pham and Jake Cronenworth. The Friars have not seen Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (2.04 ERA during day) while San Diego's Ryan Weathers (1.29 ERA during day) threw four scoreless in Miami last month. Winds won't be a factor. Petco is still a pitchers' park. |
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08-10-21 | Reds v. Braves -114 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Major travel disadvantage for the Reds as after playing Sunday at home had to fly to Cleveland for a makeup game Monday, laid an egg there to see their five-game winning streak end and then fly to Atlanta to open this series. The Braves were off Monday. Two big injury/rest notes here: Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker (.307, 23 HR, 67 RBIs) is not starting, while Braves All-Star first baseman Freddie Freeman is back from a non-COVID illness. Cincy pitcher Sonny Gray has been shaky in three of his past four outings, while Atlanta's Drew Smyly rarely gives up more than three runs -- although he rarely goes more than five innings, either. The Braves are 5-1 in their past six series openers. |
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08-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -119 | 8-4 | Loss | -119 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sox are scuffling in a major way, but most of that was away from home -- they are 14-5 in their past 19 at Fenway. Boston is also 3-0 at home vs. Tampa this year. Rays starter Luis Patino has been terrific at home but has a 7.41 road ERA in 17 innings and has never pitched at historic Fenway. Boston's Eduardo Rodriguez has been trending the right way and has thrown at least five scoreless innings in three of his past six. The Red Sox are 9-2 in his last 11 starts overall. |
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08-10-21 | A's -138 v. Indians | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 1 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oakland is 12-4 coming off a day off (second-best winning percentage in MLB) and is hitting significantly better on the road this year than at home. Ace lefty Sean Manaea also is much better away as he has the third-lowest road ERA in the American League (2.64) and second-lowest road opponents' batting average (.198) and OPS (.565). Cleveland's Triston McKenzie is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA at home and 0-4 with a 6.52 ERA at night. |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies -160 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units About a month ago, I probably wouldn't have bet against the Mets' Taijuan Walker but he has fallen off a cliff or shrub or whatever your metaphor (do people fall off shrubs?). The Phillies' Zack Wheeler also is regressing a bit but is still a better pitcher. Honestly don't love a lot of games today but this seems safe with the Phils on fire. What do I know? I just watched Beaches with my lovely wife and am still crying ... not gonna cry Roy! |
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -154 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Really not sure what to say. I've done some trading and I don't get this. Bet the Rockies at home. Amazing price considering Rox starter Austin Gomber has a 1.98 ERA at home. This feels at least 30 cents short. |
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08-07-21 | Royals v. Cardinals -158 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Still irked about Dodgers. Would have had the best day of season. Whatever. Price seems a bit low on this one. We won on the Cards on Friday and fully expect to again. Kwang Hyung Kim > Brad Keller. As Denzel said in Training Day said, this **** ain't chess it's checkers. |
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08-06-21 | Rangers v. A's -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A's rested Thursday while the Rangers dropped their third straight, 5-0 at home to the Angels, then had to fly west. Oakland is a 11-4 following an off day. Texas has scored four runs in its last three games, is 4-17 in its last 21 overall and starts Mike Foltynewicz, who has an 8.38 road ERA. Back Chris Bassitt and Oakland to get a convincing win, laying 1.5 runs at -125. |
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08-06-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -151 | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We've bet the Rockies all week, and they should have swept the Cubs but took two out of three. The Marlins aren't much better than the Cubs and are 15 games under .500 on the road. Miami's Sandy Alcantara is a good pitcher but worse away (5-6, 3.71 ERA) and at night (3-5, 4.06). Colorado is 17-5 in its past 22 at home vs. a righty. It starts German Marquez. He is 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA over his last eight starts and 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA over his last seven at home. VERY rare to see a total Under 10 in Denver but this one is set at 9.5. I'd probably still lean Under but will not play it. |
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08-06-21 | Tigers v. Indians -134 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I wouldn't call the Tigers hot garbage on the road, but perhaps warm refuse. Such a different team outside of Comerica Park. And rookie pitcher Matt Manning is the same, going 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA on the road -- in late June, he was bombed for nine runs in Cleveland. On the flip side, the Tribe's Cal Quantrill has quietly become one of the AL's better pitchers. He's 2-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his past five. Cleveland is 11-5 in its past 16 as a favorite. |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies -107 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a massive game in the NL East, and the Phillies come into it hot. In a matchup of two starters having strong seasons, the home team should have a nice edge that is not fully reflected in this line. Both these teams went deep into their pitching staffs using five pitchers each. The Phillies are 6-1 since June 29 coming off a road game in which they used at least five pitchers. Meanwhile, the Mets are 0-6 since July 27 coming off a game as a favorite in which they used at least five pitchers. |
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08-06-21 | White Sox -175 v. Cubs | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating; Units I've been fading the Cubs all week, and many times I probably will not when Kyle Hendricks is on the mound, especially at home, but man that lineup looks laughable today behind Hendricks with Willson Contreras getting the game off and Jason Heyward (not that he's any good) landing on the injured list. I don't see how the Cubs score much against the Sox's Lance Lynn (10-3, 2.07). The Sox do lose the DH but are keeping Eloy Jimenez's bat in the lineup by playing him (dangerously) in left field. The wind is blowing out pretty hard at Wrigley, and Hendricks does give up a lot of homers. Lynn does not. |
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08-05-21 | Phillies -143 v. Nationals | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phillies starter Aaron Nola isn't nearly the ace he was in years past, but he's been pretty close the last two times out, allowing just three runs in 14 2/3 innings while striking out 14. The Nationals' new-look offense shouldn't be a problem for him. On the other side, Nationals starter Joe Ross spun five scoreless innings against the Phillies on July 26. Seeing him again with this quick turnaround is generally a big benefit to the offense with the familiarity. Plus, the Nationals' bullpen is a disaster right now. Even if it has to be late, the Phillies roll for their fifth straight win. |
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08-05-21 | Cubs v. Rockies -153 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As I've said in this space and the Early Edge all week, I'll be FADING the Cubs in nearly every road game the rest of the season. Probably plenty at home, too. Yep, they burned me in a bit of a fluke on Wednesday, but this still will be a winning strategy overall. The Rockies will go with Antonio Senzatela, who hasn't pitched in about a month after a bout with COVID. His splits are much better at home and during the day. Chicago's Jake Arrieta might be the worst pitcher in the National League right now with a 9.55 ERA over his past eight, and he has really been hammered in three career starts at Coors Field. |
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08-05-21 | Red Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's try this again on Detroit after losing on the runline Wednesday. Boston lefty Martin Perez is really coming back to earth after a solid start to the season as he hasn't won in his past four and his July ERA was 6.26. Detroit has won five of its past seven at home vs. lefties. It's southpaw Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, and he has been better at home with a 3.74 ERA (also better during the day). The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Tigers at -135 on the RL. |