Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-06-14 | USC v. Stanford -3 | 13-10 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Stanford -2.5 2.2* winner |
|||||||
09-06-14 | Navy -3 v. Temple | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
NAVY -3 3.3* EARLY BIRD PLAY |
|||||||
09-04-14 | Arizona -7 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Arizona -7 -104 4.5* POD |
|||||||
08-31-14 | Utah State +5 v. Tennessee | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
Utah State +5 4.4* NCAAF POD |
|||||||
08-30-14 | LSU v. Wisconsin +4 | 28-24 | Push | 0 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Wisconsin +4 2.2* play |
|||||||
08-30-14 | Arkansas +18.5 v. Auburn | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 23 m | Show | |
Arkansas +18.5 3.3* NCAAF College Assurance Bret Bielema is a damn fine coach and despite the results last year he was not that far away. Bielema loves to trash talk the tempo offense and now he gets his shot after an entire off season to prepare. Look for him to run the ball and kill the clock in this one and he should have no issue doing so. Auburn's defense is far from elite and they gave up 200+ yards rushing to 6 teams last year including Arkansas. This team actually gave up a more yards to power running teams which is exactly what Arkansas is with RB's Alex Collins and Jonathan Williams. Overall Auburn's offense is much better and they are going to be hard to stop but I expect Arkansas can limit their possessions and I do like their defense a bit better along with the impressive hires they did for the defense gives me plenty of confidence and value on taking Arkansas at +18.5. |
|||||||
08-30-14 | UCLA v. Virginia +21 | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
Virginia +21 5.5* NCAAF POD |
|||||||
08-30-14 | Penn State v. Central Florida -2 | 26-24 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
UCF -2 3.3* NCAAF POD |
|||||||
08-29-14 | Texas-San Antonio +10.5 v. Houston | Top | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
UTSA +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD |
|||||||
08-28-14 | Ole Miss v. Boise State +11 | 35-13 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
Boise State +11 3.3* College Assurance |
|||||||
08-28-14 | Texas A&M +11 v. South Carolina | Top | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Texas A&M +10.5 4.4* NCAAF POD South Carolina and Texas A&M get the SEC network started and both will be without two of the biggest names in college football as Manziel and Clowney are now in the NFL. However, what remains are two top coaches in Kevin Sumlin and Steve Spurrier and two top 10 recruiting classes. South Carolina returns more starters, but I don't believe it's enough to warrant being double digit favorites to start the year. First of all Kevin Sumlin is a very very good offensive coach and A&M is 10-2 on the road with him at the helm. He also has blue chip guys at all of the skill positions including two at QB and two at RB. The offensive line is always a strength with this unit as they return 4 of their 5 starters after losing Jake Mathews to the NFL draft. This unit has the potential to be better. As of today I think Texas A&M's offense is better than South Carolina's who are dealing with the loss of two of their best offensive players in Ellington and Shaw. The offense has to completely change for them with Dylan Thompson who is a completely different QB. I think Thompson is capable, but again this offense will be built to run the football which should benefit us in covering the double digit spread by slowing the game down. This spread is where it's at due to the loss of starters and how bad the defense looked last year for A&M, but their is a silver lining. A&M's defense picked it up last part of the year and they won't be dealing with the injury crisis they were in 2013. I don't think this unit is far from being a top 50 defense and I think they'll be able to handle a more traditional one dimensional attack to open the season. Spurrier and the Gamecocks were 37th in rushing play % and the same the year before. With the strength of the offensive line I see no reason why they won't try to run the ball 60% of the time to ensure victory. So A&M gets the nod on offense, South Carolina gets the edge on defense, and I think A&M gets the nod on special teams. South Carolina has a senior punter in Hall but he averaged just 37.8 yards per punt and the South Carolina lacks any type of a return game and that's nothing new the last five years they have ranked 94th, 75th, 112th, 86th, and 114th in the nation. That will not benefit you early in the season against a good coach and a talented team with potential. A&M's kicker averaged 47.4 yards and their place kicker often forced touchbacks. I think A&M will be able to benefit from field advantage |
|||||||
01-06-14 | Auburn +10.5 v. Florida State | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Auburn +10.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
I'll take the Tigers against the "unbeatable Seminoles." I looked at several aspects of this game, but what I started with was strength of schedule. Not only is the ACC over rated and have gone 4-5 in bowl games, but the SEC is better than last year and is not down based on some experts claims. The SEC is 7-2 in bowl games and Georgia played without their star QB and Alabama didn't want to be there. SEC had 30 wins vs. top 25 teams while the ACC had 2 going 2-26. The Seminoles had the 39th hardest schedule compared to Auburn's 6th. Seminoles non-conference schedule really boosted a lot of stats as they faced a helpless Florida team and then Bethune Cookman, Nevada and Idaho who are both way at the back of solid college football teams. Nonetheless we give the Seminoles plenty of credit for winning all of their games by 27 or more points with the exception of Boston College..... BC was the one team that Florida State faced in the top 40 in rushing ypc. BC was 12th and as we saw in their bowl game they were not that good against Arizona. However, Auburn ranked 5th and they don't appear to be slowing down. FSU gave up 200 yards to Boston College and if you don't believe Auburn is a better team you are crazy. In this game I think absolutely Auburn will be able to run the ball. They may have to be a little creative to get it going, but with extra time to prepare Guz Malzahn is a genius. This is a guy that broke Auburn records with over 4,000 yards rushing and is also responsible for a 5,000 passing season at Tulsa. I give the coaching edge to Auburn. It's not like Nick Marshall can't pass either. Marshall came in early knowing only 25% of the playbook, but you could see this offense get better with every game this season and the depth they have at RB is solid to pair with Heisman candidate Tre Mason. I don't see a game on Florida State's schedule that they had to prepare for an offense even remotely close to what Auburn can do. Which means I believe Auburn will get their points. Now their defense is another story, but hidden under everything... Auburn's ability to hold up on third down holding opponents to 34% and in the red zone they have been amazing holding opponents to 48% TD's will keep them in this game. If they can get pressure on Winston and cause a couple of turnovers I think they can win and Florida State was not great at protecting Winston ranked 83rd in pass protection. A couple of game changers on Auburn's side obviously we know the Nick Marshall and Tre Mason's of the world, but Chris Davis at corner back and Sammie Coates at WR are really really good. This entire Auburn team believes they are a team of destiny and they continue to fight back no matter the situation. Florida State has never been in a tight game in the 4th. Winston seems cool under pressure, but I think Florida State thinks they already won this game while the idea of nobody thinking you can win is really motivating in preparation for an Auburn team. I think 10.5 points is just too much for a team like Florida State who I feel is unproven especially vs. a really good running team. |
|||||||
01-05-14 | Arkansas State +7 v. Ball State | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
[b]Ark State +7 2.75* play[/b]
I've been fading the MAC all Bowl season with the exception of Ohio which collapsed against East Carolina in the 4th quarter, but the MAC is 0-4 and very over rated. Ball State put up huge numbers behind the duo of Sneed and Wenning, but they did a lot of it against poor teams. They faced only two other bowl teams and lost both of those games while the very over rated Northern Illinois team crushed them. They got an easy non-conference schedule and then skipped over 3 of the 4 bowl teams in the MAC while playing the 3 worst. Anyone can put up big numbers against those type of teams. Arkansas State on the other hand faced both of SEC division champs in Missouri and Auburn in their non-conference schedule which really helped them down the stretch. They also have a senior QB in Adam Kennedy who got hot down the stretch and he's accurate and he can also run the ball. Take a look at the last time Ball State faced a rushing QB (N. Illinois). Ball State allowed 7 teams to rush for 200+ yards and 6 teams to rush over 5 ypc. The key to winning for Arkansas State is rushing the ball as they have 5.23 in their wins and 3.40 in their losses. I think in the end Arkansas State has more of a capability of stopping Wenning than Ball State can stop the running attack of Arkansas State. Arkansas State also does not beat themselves with 13 turnovers all season while Ball State was -4 in the TO margin in their losses. |
|||||||
01-04-14 | Houston +2.5 v. Vanderbilt | 24-41 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 21 m | Show | |
write up coming
|
|||||||
01-03-14 | Clemson v. Ohio State -3 | Top | 40-35 | Loss | -104 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
Ohio State -2.5 5.5** NCAAF POD
There are a lot of statistics I went through this game before making a selection, but the last thing I looked at was the coaching and the edge is clearly on Urban Meyer. Clemson under Swinney are 2-3 SU and ATS in bowl games and they are 11-6 SU and 8-8 ATS following a loss which once again they came off of against South Carolina a superior opponent. Urban Meyer throughout his career is 12-1 SU and 9-2-2 ATS following a loss. We already saw when Michigan State beat Stanford that the loss was legit. We also saw Iowa give LSU everything they could so the Big Ten is gaining respect and I think we get this line at a value. Also Meyer is 6-1 SU and ATS in bowl games and don't forget Ohio State has not been able to go since the 2011 season. I don't see that you'll see the traditional hang over from being one game away from the National Championship. Now that we have the better coach on our side I took a look at what each team does well and where there struggles were and can they over come them to win this game? With that said I think we all know that both teams have great offenses and the defenses are not very good. Can Clemson stop Ohio State's nation leading rushing attack? The answer is no, actually it is an absolutely no chance no way. There were a lot of great running backs, but Carlos Hyde was the best one I saw all year. Braxton Miller is also easily a top rusher not as only a QB so stopping that just is not going to be possible. Clemson's run defense allowed 200+ to all 3 solid rushing teams they faced. The #1 key in this game probably though is Ohio State's pass defense which really struggled and I think this is where the coaching comes into play. This is where the time off really benefits the Buckeyes and don't forget Urban Meyer played DB in college. Clemson is 86th in protecting their QB and Ohio State has a great pass rush ranking 28th in sack %. Noah Spence and Joey Bosa and Ryan Shazier are all top talents. Both South Carolina and Florida State featured top 40 pass rushes that defeated Clemson. Clemson has a 96 QB rating in their losses and a 175 QB rating in their wins. Ohio State is also great at getting tackles in the backfield with 89 on the season which is impressive for a Big 12 team. To put it in perspective Michigan State's had 91, and Clemson allowed 88, while Ohio State only had 46. Which sets us up for how a team is going to do on 3rd down. Ohio State held opponents to 34% conversions on third down while Clemson held opponents to 31%, but in Clemson's losses they allowed 58% and we already established that Ohio State will play ahead of the chains all game long with their elite running tandem. They were 49% on third down this season better than Clemson's offense which was 44%. The same is transitioned over to the red zone where Ohio State was 83% on 60 attempts to Clemson 67% on 56 attempts. In the end the Buckeyes need and want a post season win and Urban Meyer is thirsty for one. Dabo Swinney got his big upset last year vs. LSU. I look for Ohio State to get a double digit win for us. |
|||||||
01-03-14 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Missouri | 31-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
[b]Oklahoma State -1 4.4* PLAY[/b]
Wow what a crazy match up this is as both teams had a chance to win their final game and win their conference championship but came up short. Both teams used to face off against each other in the Big 12 and Mike Gundy and Gary Pinkel know plenty of each other. Gundy has won 3 of the 4 match ups including one game where he was a +14 under dog on the road. He is also 12-3 in his last 15 games following a SU loss and he is 5-2 in bowl games while Pinkel is just 4-4 in many more seasons in bowl games at Missouri. For Missouri it was almost the perfect season and they are a solid team, but what you won't see in the stat line is some of their luck of facing teams at the right time. Florida and Georgia were both banged up when they defeated them and then South Carolina had a miracle come back after dominating most of the game so even though I was high on Missouri throughout the season I knew at times they were very fortunate and I don't think they can get up for this game after coming off a tough SEC match up where they gave up so many rushing yards in the end if the defense does not get a pass rush and are making tackles for loss they just cant' stop you. Oklahoma State is able to beat good offenses. Just take a look at their wins vs. Kansas State who is 13th in QB rating and Baylor who was 4th. In both of their losses their QB struggled. I think he'll be fine in this game however because Missouri won't be getting sacks as Oklahoma State is 5th in protecting the QB. Missouri is 100th in completion % defense and 103rd in passing yards allowed so I see Oklahoma State being able to move the ball through the air at will. Even bigger keys are what Missouri didn't do when they lost games and in their 2 losses they could not convert on third down with 23%, Oklahoma St holds opponents to 31% which is better than Missouri's 37% defense. Missouri also converts 70% of their red zone attempts into TD's, but only 50% in losses which was their issue against Auburn. Oklahoma State is great in the red zone even better than Auburn and South Carolina holding opponents to 41% and it will be the reason they win this game. |
|||||||
01-02-14 | Oklahoma +17 v. Alabama | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
2.2* bonus
|
|||||||
01-01-14 | Michigan State +6.5 v. Stanford | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
Michigan State +6.5 +100 3* play[/b]
Wow even without Max Bullough I still think Michigan State has tremendous value here when you take a look at the keys. How do you beat Stanford? The games that Stanford has lost or struggled in a few things happened. In wins Keith Hgan had a 163 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Hogan never played well against the good pass defenses and Michigan State is #1 with legit lock down corners that will play you in man coverage. They faced 5 top 40 pass defenses and his QB ratings were all bad 110, 120, 85.5 and 83. He's just not a game changer and that will allow Michigan State to stack the box. The next thing is to protect the ball and that's something Michigan State does very well. In both of Stanford's losses they were negative in turnover margin and they were -1 on the season as good as their defense was they don't force turnovers. Michigan State does not turn the ball over and is +14 in turnovers this year. The third thing is to stay ahead of the chains. Michigan State has a very under rated offensive line that never seems to get credit, but they played a great game vs. Ohio State who has a great pass rush. Stanford's defense has not been dominant when they can't get to the QB and create negative plays which go hand in hand in turnovers. Michigan State was 12th in pass protection and only allowed 13 sacks. Guess what Stanford had just 3 sacks in their 2 losses combined. Some may point to the Notre Dame game and ask why Michigan State lost and I would say they got robbed. Watching that game there were 10 penalties for 115 yards which changed the game. A lot of tick tack pass interference calls. I would also say that Michigan State's offense has improved drastically since especially Connor Cook who seems to make great decisions and has a big arm. I think Stanford is going to have a tougher time stopping Michigan State's offense than they did with Wisconsin last year as Cook is better than Curt Phillips. Michigan State will also dominate the field position battle as their punter is very under rated. Mike Sadler will pin you inside your 10 with ease and that can only make the Spartans offense better in the long run. |
|||||||
01-01-14 | Iowa v. LSU -7 | Top | 14-21 | Push | 0 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
LSU -6.5 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Iowa's staple defeat was ironically Nebraska who we are backing and I don't think it was very impressive when you look at how banged up Nebraska was for that game then you add in the fact that they had 4 injuries during the game and it's not shock that a physical team like Iowa lost that game. Whenever Iowa had to step up their play to play an elite team they lost. They lost by 12 to Michigan State 10 to Ohio State and 19 to Wisconsin. I would not call Northern Illinois an elite team, but they do have a dominant rushing attack and Iowa lost to them as well. LSU is of the same caliber running the ball as Wisconsin and Ohio State and although Iowa was 18th vs. the run this year and feature some of the best linebackers they allowed 273 and 218 to those two teams. LSU should be able to move the ball on the ground even without the threat of Zack Mettenberger's arm. If anything I think Anthony Jennings will provide for a better rushing attack, because he is also a threat to rip off yards in chunks. Cam Cameron is a very good offensive mind and the extra time will allow him to put things into the game that fit to Jennings who has a ton of upside. It will help that Iowa is among the worst in the nation at getting to the QB ranking 75th in sack %. Jennings also has a pair of NFL ready receivers in Landry and Beckham that just don't exist in the Big Ten. On the flip side LSU's defense is young and really emerged as the season went on. They held Johny Football to 10 points and the elite Auburn attack to 21 points. I really think the extra time benefits LSU's defense the most in this game and I don't Iowa can put up 10 points. Iowa lacks any type of player that can stretch a defense and change the game and LSU knows it. LSU has some great athletes and they should be able to cheat up and make plays behind the line of scrimmage. LSU owes their fans for the last two years with the collapse against Clemson and their shocking defeat in the Championship vs. Alabama. Iowa is not in the caliber of those two teams and I see LSU cruising to an easy victory by double digits. |
|||||||
01-01-14 | Wisconsin -1 v. South Carolina | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -1.5 3.3* play[/b]
I find it a little strange that South Carolina at #9 is an under dog against a Big 10 team that's ranked #19, but Wisconsin was better than their loss vs. Penn State and they deserved better than what happened at Arizona State and if you watched the Ohio State game they actually played better. Both teams love to run the ball and win with the run and that is what I concentrated on in this game Wisconsin was 2nd in ypc rushing offense while South Carolina was averaging nearly 2 yards less and Wisconsin ranked 15th in rushing defense while South Carolina is ranked 57th. Whenever South Carolina played good rushing offenses they seemed to struggle and this is the best rushing attack they will face all year long. I made a lot of money on South Carolina this season and I think Connor Shaw is a very good college QB, but I don't even know if he will make it through this game the way Wisconsin plays physical football. He is also notorious for coming up short in big games that he's not playing in his own stadium so I think Wisconsin wins here. |
|||||||
01-01-14 | Nebraska +9 v. Georgia | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Nebraska +9 3.3* Play[/b]
This is a rare occasion where you play the same team in back to back bowl games. Now Nebraska was nothing special this year, but I believe the revenge factor with all the time to prepare is going to be a factor. Georgia also has been killed by injuries all year and now they are without their most important player in Aaron Murray as Hutson Mason will have his work cut out for him. Georgia has not done well against run first teams and Nebraska has an excellent running game with a top 5 running back in Ameer Abdullah. Georgia was 2-4 vs. teams that ran the ball 37+ times this year in a game and their wins were by 7 and 3 points. Nebraska averaged 45 carries per game and had just 2 games with less than 37 carries in losses against Minnesota and Michigan State. |
|||||||
12-31-13 | Mississippi State -7 v. Rice | 44-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
[b]Miss St -6.5 -120 buy 1/2 4* play[/b]
Miss State is 83rd in run defense allowing 4.6 ypc and Rice is 9th in the country running ball 65% of the time. Miss State wins when they stop the run and a closer look reveals just how challenging of a schedule they have had facing 9 top 50 rushing offense in which they only allowed 200+ yards 3 times. They held an explosive Auburn team to a season low 120 yards and they did it on the road so I truly believe they can stop Rice from running the ball and Rice is completely one dimensional. Conference USA was 1-16 vs. top 40 teams and when you look at Miss State's schedule they were far better than their record indicated. I think this will be a game where the defense just takes over and the benefits of holding Rice to 3 and outs will benefit the offense that also likes to runt he ball with a power attack. All 6 of Miss State teams are to top 25 teams and I just feel they are a far better team than Rice who had their glory by upsetting Marshall in the CUSA Championship. |
|||||||
12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 19-42 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
[b]Boston College +7.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
This game is going to be a very exciting game featuring two of the best running backs in the country in Ka'Deem Carey and Andre Williams. Looking at this game it's going to be important to stop the run, but both of these running backs have been pretty match up proof running well against even the best. However, I give the edge to Boston College's rushing defense ranked 36th in the country over Arizona ranked 73rd. Arizona did face a stronger dose of running games in the PAC 12, but not by far and their 3-3-5 defense is better for defending spread rushing offenses. Every time they faced a north and south rushing game like BC they were allowing big games. BC on the other hand played their best running the ball against top run defenses and defending against the top rushing offenses. They held Florida State to 159 yards and were the only team to really scare Florida State on the season and they played extremely well at Clemson. Boston College is much stronger in the front 7 with 14 more sacks and 12 more tackles for loss. What type of run defenses did these two go up again? Arizona rarely had to go on the road to face a good run defense and only faced 5 top 50 run stop units all year and they'll face #6 in their bowl game while Boston College had to face 8 top 50 run defenses and many on the road. They faced two top 10 rushing defenses in Virginia Tech and Florida State and they had 87 carries for 396 yards. Many will point to the USC game that both of these teams had to travel to as why Arizona is better at stopping or running the ball, but that's a ridiculous trip for BC who had to go on the road the next week to face FSU after traveling across the country. This game is going to start at 12:30 on New Years Eve and I give the edge to BC in that scenario. Overall I don't see a drastic difference between these two teams for there to be a 7 point spread. Thought I spoke on the rushing games a ton there are QB's playing in this game that will be called upon and BC has the better more capable QB in Rettig and a WR in Alex Amidon while Arizona has a better secondary, but they lack a pass rush. I give a slight edge to BC for balance on offense and I would give them a decent shot at pulling off the upset thus the 7.5 points give us tremendous value here. |
|||||||
12-30-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
Ole Miss -3 -103 5.5* NCAAF POD
Georgia Tech running the triple option is a tough team to prepare for, but when you take a look at their success in bowl games it's obvious that the extra time definitely benefits the opposing team. Last year they beat USC in their bowl game, but they are 1-7 in their previous 8 bowl games and we see the same struggles from Navy who runs the same offense. Georgia Tech will run the ball over 75% of the time and Ole Miss is young on defense, but they have the athletes and talent to stop this triple option. They ranked 54th vs. the run this year, but what was even more impressive was how they did having to face 8 top 50 rushing offenses, 5 of which were in the top 25. Ole Miss had a much stronger schedule to work through and came up with big wins. The only big win that Georgia Tech came up with all year long was Duke and that was before anyone knew Duke was any good. Ole Miss was close on the road against Auburn, and they beat LSU. They did struggle down the stretch, but a win here and we will be looking at this team completely different. Hugh Freeze is a good coach and Ole Miss has had success in these bowl games I also think their offense is going to give Georgia Tech major issues. Ole Miss is a balanced offense but when they can pass the ball they generally win. They were 36th in QB rating led by an experienced Bo Wallace. In wins this year Ole Miss had a 158 QB rating and in losses a 114 QB rating. Georgia Tech in wins allowed a 106 QB rating and in losses allowed a 180 QB rating. They only faced three teams with a better QB rating than Ole Miss and in all three games the defense allowed 45, 41 and 55 points. Georgia did not even have Aaron Murray and still hung up 41 points on Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech was 95th in yards per pass attempt 94th in QB rating and 85th in yards allowed. They played an average 59th ranked passing offense not including the two non FBS schools in Elon and Alabama A&M that helped skew some of their defensive and offensive stats on the season. Overall they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. the SEC and Ole Miss is 18-5 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games. It looks too easy, but sometimes it is, go Rebels! |
|||||||
12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State +7 v. Navy | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show | |
[b]MTSU +7 3.3* Early Bird Special / MTSU +220 1* PLAY[/b]
I like fading these triple option offenses in the post season, because they do not have as much flexibility in their playbook and the extra time for a defense to prepare makes it hard for them to win games. Navy is 1-5 in their last 6 bowl games and Georgia Tech is 1-7 in their last 8. MTSU is a solid team that is playing with a chip on their shoulder this bowl season after going 8-4 last year and not getting a bowl invite. MTSU was ranked 65th in rushing defense this year, but they played better down the stretch also it's worth noting that in 2012 when their defense was worse and they faced Georgia Tech with extra time to prepare they won 49-28. Their linebackers are under sized, but fast and athletic which is a good match up going up against Navy. Navy has one guy that the defense can key on and that's Keenan Reynolds. If you can stop Reynolds you win the game. MTSU does not beat themselves with just 4 penalties per game and a +11 turnover margin. They also are 7-0 when they run for over 200 yards which they should be able to do against a very bad Navy rushing team ranked 84th in yards per carry allowed. This run defense allowed Hawaii who ranked 110th in rushing the ball to go for 218 yards in their own building. MTSU is ranked 29th and should have plenty of success especially with a veteran behind center in Logan Killgore who should be able to get TD's in the red zone because Navy allowed 71% TD's in red zone defense and they were terrible on third down as well. I see Navy can get the running game going a bit, but it won't be enough as their defense just can't make any stops. |
|||||||
12-28-13 | Michigan v. Kansas State -5.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show | |
Kansas State -5.5 2.2* bonus
Kansas State is an old school football team. They win and cover when they are able to run the ball and stop the run. I know this is a huge public favorite, but I looked back and since 2009 Kansas State is 62.7% ATS when the majority of the public is backing them. I just don't see how Michigan can score points in this game they were 112th in ypc rushing offense this year and they'll have an inexperienced QB starting over Devin Gardner. For Kansas State's offense they should be able to run the ball because Michigan struggles against mobile QB's and Daniel Sams has been one of the best in the country for a rushing offense that again has been great. I expect Kansas State to win this game by more than a TD because they are going to be able to run the ball effectively and when you really look at it their offense can also pass the ball since they got their two receiving threats (Locket and Thompson) back so it's not like Michigan can just sell out on the run. |
|||||||
12-28-13 | Miami (Florida) +4.5 v. Louisville | Top | 9-36 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
Miami +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
If we are talking about strength of schedule Miami has played a far more challenging schedule on the year. In the end what really made me select this game was the match up for Louisville who really has not played that well this year at times against weak competition. Miami will be traveling 500 miles less than Louisville and they too will have a senior QB in Stephen Morris and a rushing game that even without Duke Johnson as they finished 28th in QB rating and 31st in rushing ypc. You could say with those stats that Miami could beat you both ways. Now when you look at Louisville they have been absolutely great on defense, but this is the best offense they have faced since Central Florida beat them and Miami is probably a little bit more balanced and better. Nobody else was even close as they only faced 1 team in the top 70 in rushing yards per carry with Central Florida ranking 64th. They faced 3 teams in the top 50 in QB rating and they lost the game to Central Florida and only won by a TD to both Cinci and Houston. Now Miami has weaknesses in their passing defense, but I think they will be able to match Louisville point for point and in the end there is just too much value on Miami who will be playing in their home state. |
|||||||
12-27-13 | Syracuse +4.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
Syracuse +4 5.5* MAX NCAAF POD
Syracuse lost this game at Minnesota last year, but mostly due to being -4 in turnover margin and they still only lost by 7 on the road. This game will be played on neutral field in Texas. Revenge is definitely a factor, but I think we are also getting some nice value here because the public has pounded Minnesota and one could only think why.... Syracuse lost to Penn State and Northwestern to open the season while Minnesota beat both those teams. Syracuse was expected to struggle especially early in the season with a completely new coaching staff and a new QB, but they have turned their season around nicely. When looking at this game it's all about the running games. Minnesota is 6th with a run play % at 67% while Syracuse is 39th with a 56.3%. I like the 4 points because it's hard to see Minnesota blowing any one out with the style of football they play. A deeper look at what each team does when they win and when they lose directly ties that success to running the football and stopping the run. So I took a deeper look at each team's rushing offense and defenses. Lets start with the running defenses. Minnesota allowed over 5ypc to 4 of their last 5 opponents and ranked 90th. Syracuse has only faced one opponent outside the top 60 in run defense and they won that game 24-10. Minnesota did play plenty of top rushing attacks, but their non-conference schedule was against some bad Mountain West teams while Syracuse scheduled the Big 10. Syracuse averages 5.25 ypc in their wins vs. 3.82 in their losses and they have two capable RB in Gulley who is back and Smith. The x-factor is their QB Terrel Hunt who averaged nearly 5 ypc and is a very under rated thrower from what I saw in the Boston College game. Syracuse should be able to run the ball here considering they ranked 45th doing so against 9 top 50 run defenses who on average ranked 40th. I can not say the same for Minnesota. When Minnesota has the ball they are far more 1 dimenstional than Syracuse and Syracuse on the surface has better stats stopping the run. They held Penn State at home to 1.5 ypc this year while Minnesota held them to 5.3 ypc. I throw the Northwestern common game out because Minnesota did not have to face them early in the year with a healthy Kain Colter who missed that game against Minnesota. Syracuse also stopped this same rushing attack in Minnesota a year ago holding them to 2.6 ypc. Syracuse should be able to do the same when they know what is coming and Minnesota can't win when they can't run. Minnesota's 54th ranked rushing game played an average 60th ranked rushing defense with only 5 in the top 40 in run defense like Syracuse. They went 1-4 in those 5 games. Turnovers are also a big issues for these two teams and neither one really has a considerable advantage as Minnesota is +9 in wins and -6 in losses while Syracuse is +8 in wins and -6 in losses. I will say this though Syracuse takes more chances they are +16 in tackles for loss and +14 in sacks compared with Minnesota who is +1 and -6. Those are the type of plays that cause turnovers. Syracuse is also better in third down defense. Overall though I think Terrel Hunt at QB for Syracuse is the difference maker that gets Syracuse the upset here today. |
|||||||
12-26-13 | Utah State +1 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
Utah State pk 5.5* NCAAF POD
We spoke in depth about the MAC and their struggles vs top teams and just plainly they are not very good. The Mountain West plays against the PAC 12 which is the #2 conference behind SEC, and Utah State played 2 teams out of that conference losing both games by less than a TD combined. Northern Illinois played Iowa out of the Big Ten and then ran through their cup cake schedule in the MAC before facing an actual defense in the championship game and their defense was exposed. Northern Illinois defense is a real weakness and Utah State is balanced on offense and defense, but the big key here is Utah State's strength in run defense vs. Northern Illinois rushing offense which ranked 4th, so lets take you through that, but before we do it's worth noting that the Mac faced off against the Mountain West conference and were favorites, but Buffalo was flat out dominated by San Diego State. Northern Illinois ranked 4th in rushing 16th in run play % making it easy for any defense to come up with a game plan to defeat them. Stop the run, which is something Utah State is ranked 10th in yards allowed and 3rd in yards per carry allowed. Northern Illinois schedule makes it no surprise why they were so good running the ball, but Jordan Lynch still deserves credit, but in the big game of the year he made mistakes throwing the ball. Northern Illinois faced 1 top 50 rushing defense, and they faced 5 that were ranked 112th or worse. Iowa only won 30-27, but Iowa lacks offensive balance and playmakers which is something Utah State has more of even without their star QB Chuckie Keeton. Utah State should be able to contain Lynch with star LB Jake Doughty and Zach Vigil. This rushing defense was legit as they did not allow a single rushing offense over 3.75 ypc and they faced a ton of talented running games with 5 in the top 30 and 8 in the top 50 in rushing ypc. Opponents had only 8 rushing touchdowns and it's no surprise that their red zone defense and third down defense were just flat out dominant allowing 32% and 41% in the red zone for TD percentage. This rushing defense faced 3 top 30 rushing offenses from a ypc perspective in their last 3 games and they held them to 1.12 ypc, 0.97 ypc and 1.60 ypc. That's just dominant and we saw against Bowling Green that Jordan Lynch could not throw and beat a solid pass defense which Utah State also has. Utah State ranked 22nd in opposing QB rating, 21st in opposing QB pass completion %, 24th in sack % and 41st in yards per attempt. The offenses are a wash statistically which should surprise you considering the defenses that you face in the MAC which to me means Utah State has the better offense and we already know they have the better defense. Utah State is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 non conference games while Northern Illinois is 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games while this game will be held in San Diego which is much closer for Utah State. |
|||||||
12-26-13 | Pittsburgh +5 v. Bowling Green | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
[b]Pittsburgh +5 3.3* Play[/b]
Bowling Green peaked when they won the MAC Championship for the first time in 21 years and their head coach Dave Clawson decided to move onto the Wake Forest job as their special teams coach takes over in the interim with no real head coaching experience. That's huge for a team going bowling coming off a conference championship, and Bowling Green is just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and they have 7 straight losses to major conference teams including Indiana 42-10 and Miss State 20-21 this year. The MAC is over rated and we saw it first hand with Bowling Green dominating Northern Illinois who went undefeated. The MAC was 1-16 this year vs. top 40 teams and just 6-47 vs. the top 75 teams. They face a Pitt team ranked 51st and the match up really intrigues me and I think we catch a ton of value here at +5. Pittsburgh had another 6-6 team, but they have their head coach and they are gaining traction. A 7-6 season would be great for the program since they moved to the ACC. The ACC had the 5th toughest schedule among conferences while the MAC was last and is already 0-2 SU and ATS in bowl games this season as both Buffalo and Ohio got waxed in their bowl games. Pitt came up with some big wins this year beating Syracuse on the road which is not easy to do and they also beat Duke and Notre Dame so it's not like Pitt is completely helpless. They also have the best players on offense and defense in DT Aaron Donald who won several awards along with WR Devin Street. Bowling Grene is known mostly for their defense, but they have had a balanced attack on offense, but a closer look and you can see why. Their offense faced just 1 opponent that was top 60 in both passing and rushing yards allowed and they put up 20 points, Pitt will be the 2nd. I think Bowling Green will have some issues on defense stopping the physical runners of Pitt who did not have a lot of success this year, but look for Tom Savage to open this game up early with his arm connecting with Devin Street and the all American freshmen Tyler Boyd. |
|||||||
12-24-13 | Oregon State -3 v. Boise State | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 72 h 50 m | Show |
Oregon State -3 5.5* NCAAF POD
Before you dive too deep into stats you have to have an appreciation for each team's schedule and the one thing we noticed right off the bat was just how much better the Pac 12 was compared with the Mountain West. That was not always true in years past, but the Pac 12 was definitely an elite conference in 2013. Oregon State's strength of schedule was ranked 14th compared to Boise who was ranked 79th. The PAC 12 went 10-0 vs. the Mountain West in the regular season and USC dominated the MWC Champion Fresno State in their bowl game winning 45-20. Washington State had a 45-30 lead over Colorado State with 4 minutes to play before they fumbled multiple times to lose in regulation as the only loss the Pac 12 has had vs. the Mountain West. This is the first reason I really like Oregon State. The next reason has to do with the coaching change going on with Boise State as Chris Peterson finally moved on and took the Washington job. Of all the teams to lose their coach, Boise would be the one team I would say would be impacted by it the most. Then you look at the news and they already sent their starting QB home from the bowl for violating team rules. You can guess what that means.... Boise is enjoying this as a vacation where I think Oregon State has the better coach and control over their players. Oregon State lost their last 5 games of the season so they are hungry to go off on a high note especially with a senior laden team led by their QB Sean Mannion. They faced 5 top 50 pass defenses down the stretch and 3 were in the top 20. I was not surprised that they struggled down the stretch which leads me to my 3rd major reason why Oregon State will win this game. Oregon State is ranked 3rd in the nation with a passing play % of 65% so to beat them you have to be able to stop the pass which is evident by their struggles down the stretch vs. top passing defenses of the PAC 12. Boise is not very good at stopping the pass and Sean Mannion feasted on his other opponents this year with 29 TD's and only 4 INT if you were not ranked in the top 50 in pass defense. He has a serious weapon in Brandin Cooks who was the nation's best WR winning the Fred Biletnikoff Award. Boise ranked 77th in opposing QB rating, 103rd in completion % defense and 91st in yards allowed. On the flip side Oregon State's pass defense has been great all year coming up with a 115 QB rating allowed in road games. with 15 interceptions and Boise lost when they couldn't pass having a QB rating that was 61 points less in their losses. |
|||||||
12-23-13 | Ohio +14 v. East Carolina | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -106 | 63 h 12 m | Show |
Ohio +14.5 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD; Ohio +460 1* bonus
I don't see why Ohio can not win this game and the value is there at +460 for sure. Ohio is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Conference USA and they beat both North Texas and Marshall this year who were two of the best in the conference. East Carolina is now 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. a winning team and their 4 game winning streak that gave them momentum into the Marshall game that they lost 28-59 was agaainst the worst of the CUSA conference. The 4 wins came against a combined 7-41 team record from their opponents. East Carolina's offense was not as good as it was in years past being far too one dimensional ranking 102nd in rushing yards and 10th in passing and go up against Ohio's 29th ranked passing defense that held Rakeem Cato to 1 TD and 1 INT. What I like most about this game is East Carolina probably is not too pumped to be here. When you look at their year they almost went 3-0 against the ACC, but lost 10-15 against Virginia Tech. Playing Ohio in the Beef O Brady bowl is nothing glamorous when they thought they were headed to the CUSA Championship and then possibly the Liberty Bowl to face an SEC team. Now Ohio had a very up and down year, but they were consistent as far as what type of teams they struggled against. Their 5 losses came because their offense struggled. Ohio is a team that can be effective running the ball against good run defense, but when they can't pass they are in serious trouble. All 5 losses came against very good secondaries as Kent State was 27th vs. the pass, Bowling Green 4th, Buffalo 38th, Central Mich 20th, and Louisville 8th. East Carolina's pass defense was exposed down the stretch. They ranked 90th in passing yards allowed and played the following opponents ranking 86, 70, 35, 83, 108, 112, 117, 121, 77, 91, 19. Not a lot of capable passers and Ohio's 5th year senior Tyler Tettleton has a major chip on his shoulder and is a very good QB. |
|||||||
12-21-13 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Tulane | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
UL Lafayette +3 -115 5.5* NCAAF POD
I'm grabbing this now before it goes to a pk or even Lafayette as a favorite if you have +125 at your book play the money line. The spread is off in some places for the uncertainty of Terrance Broadway, but he took snaps on Wednesday and threw the ball 50 times before Mark Hudspeth closed practice. These are two local teams that will get to play in the New Orleans bowl and I'm backing the team that is making their third straight trip in Lafayette who have covered as 6 point favorites and 6 point under dogs winning both games. We get value here because Lafayette down the stretch struggled losing 2 games straight and I believe that if they wanted to they could have won those games. Mark Hudspeth had some interesting comments and I even faded this team at South Alabama in their last game. They had no incentive in that game other than an outright Sun Belt championship which is now shared, but they believe they won which is all that matters. They won @ Arkansas State 23-7 and Hudspeth is using that as motivation for this bowl game, because many are talking about how they struggled down the stretch, but again I'm not worried. I believe Lafayette is the far superior team here and should dominate against a Tulane team that has literally no offense. Tulane has been great on defense, but I think they will struggle against a top tier offense like Lafayette on turf with time to prepare. Lafayette is 17-6 ATS in their last 23 following a loss and 17-7 ATS in their last 24 on turf and their last 21 on turf have gone over 15-5-1. Tulane is 118th in offense, 106th in pass and 103rd in rushing and failed to crack 200 yards in 2 of their last 3 games. Lafayette has Alonzo Harris and Elijah McGuire out of the backfield who combined for over 1600 yards. Tulane will have their hands full and expect to see them pass to open up the run early in this game whether it's Broadway or Brooks Haack. Either way I expect to see both and I expect Lafayette to win. |
|||||||
12-21-13 | Buffalo v. San Diego State +1 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 68 h 41 m | Show | |
[b]San Diego St +1 3.3* Showdown[/b]
Everyone is talking about the weather like San Diego State can't play in the cold and Buffalo can. However, diving into the stats more I see a Buffalo team that really struggled whenever they stepped up in competition. Their schedule was super easy as they faced the 5 worst teams in the MAC that combined for a 4-44 record while only facing 2 of the top 4 which they lost both in dominating fashion. Buffalo have some stars including Khalil Mack who is going to play at the next level, but San Diego State is just a better overall team. San Diego State is very good at stopping the run ranking 23rd in yards allowed and yards per carry. Buffalo feasted on bad run defenses. They beat Uconn ranked 22nd vs. the run, but lets be honest until the end of the year Uconn was the worst team in the league. The other 6 wins came against an average 104th ranked run defense. With Buffalo everything starts with being able to run the ball to set up the pass. They run the ball 56% of the time and they averaged 4.94 ypc in their wins and 1.99 in their losses. San Diego State can stop the run which transitions well in the cold weather. Buffalo on the other hand was only ranked 59th vs. the run and San Diego State has a quality back in Adam Muema. As good as Buffalo's defense was specifically in the red zone another look proves they just feasted on bad competition. Whenever they had to step up against a decent offense they were not able to perform and that's what San Diego State has going for them. The weather won't be too bad at 35 degrees and this will be on the blue turf a field San Diego State is very familiar with they actually shocked Boise here last year as a +16 under dog. San Diego State is a very good road team and their defense will benefit going up against a more traditional offense. Considering they play in the MAC where there are about 5 different offenses it gets very challenging for any team to play good defense, but San Diego State has. I'm taking the points with a team that is better on both sides of the ball. |
|||||||
12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State -4 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 40 m | Show | |
Don't miss out on our bowl package for only $199 as we wrap up another profitable college season. I'm a 2x NCAAF Season champion 09 & 2011 and look to have a great run in the bowl champions
******FREE PICK - TAKE WASH ST -4 1.1* FREE PLAY ******* Most teams out of the Pac 12 would not be excited to be going to this bowl game, but Washington State has not been in a while and has to be pumped. Washington State is a bit under rated here as they have had arguably the toughest schedule playing 5 teams that finished in the top 25 in BCS including 4 in the top 14 which included Auburn who they had on the ropes to open the season. Washington State is going to make no secret about their goal which is passing the ball. Colorado State is just dreadful at stopping it ranked 99th in opp QB rating, 97th in completion % defense and 100th in yards/attempt. Colorado State's only shot is to force turnovers which they didn't do a good job of this year. On the flip side Colorado State on paper has just as much of an advantage with Kapri Bibbs rushing for 28 TD's and a 6.19 ypc going up against Washington State's 84th ranked defense. However, Colorado State only faced two top 75 teams lost both. The other 9 were ranked on average 105th vs. the run. Could it get any easier for a rushing offense? Washington State is also better facing 6 in the top 50 in rushing offense. With some time to prepare they should be able to stop the run with their aggressive front 7. Washington State also forces a ton of turnovers 27 on the season. |
|||||||
12-14-13 | Army v. Navy -12 | Top | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
[b]Navy -12 4.4* NCAAF POD / 2.75* Teaser Navy -6 & Over 45[/b]
Army has had a rough year and their QB Angel Santiago has not been effective with 3.4 ypc taking over for a 4 year starter in Trent Steelman who was in tears last year when he fumbled away Army's chance at the commander in chief trophy. Army lost to Air Force while Navy won so the trophy and the motivation is clearly on Navy's side. Even though Army will always be up for this game I think Navy is just so much better this year. Navy's offense has clicked with Keenan Reynolds back after he took the game's MVP a year ago as a freshmen. Reynolds has improved drastically nearly doubling his rushing yards and scoring 16 more TD's. He's led an offense that is converting on 3rd down 12% more of the time and in the red zone 14% more of the time. This offense also does not turn the ball over with 8 lost all year and have a +9 turnover margin. Army's defense has faced 4 teams that runt he ball significantly more than they pass and they allowed the following point totals, 34, 48, 25, and 42 with the following run defense stats, 5.79, 7.80, 5.71, and 7.46 to Air Force. Navy should have no problem running all over Army and putting up 30+ points in this game and I actually see them getting close to 40, because this game is going to be all about TD's especially in the snow. Army on the other side will go up against Navy's defense that has been inconsistent and I think far worse than what the stats say. However, Navy is better at making adjustments and they have more talent. Navy can stop the triple option better holding Air Force to 4.05 ypc. Although that game was at home. However, I do like the over in this game as well because of the weather, but also because Navy's defense is really weak against the run and they are as bad as they have ever been on 3rd down defense and in the red zone they are just awful at stopping teams. Both teams are going to go for it a ton on 4th down and we will see no field goal attempts in this one. navy has only faced two teams that run the ball first as their main strategy. We mentioned Air Force, but they also faced Toledo who averaged 6.98 ypc against them. Despite that fact they still allowed 5 teams to rush for more than 200 yards this year. Still at the end of the day I like them -12 because of what is on the line and because of how their offense played down the stretch along with Army's inability to stop anyone on defense. I mean Temple scored 33 on them. |
|||||||
12-07-13 | Ohio State v. Michigan State +6 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Michigan St +6 2.2* play
Michigan State is flat out dominant on defense no matter what way you spin it. People talk about their schedule, but this team is #1 in yards allowed #1 in yards/play, #1 in rushing yards allowed, rushing ypc. They are also #1 in opposing QB rating, #1 in opposing yards per passing attempt, and 4th in completion %. They are holding opponents 1.5 yards less per play under their season average so they are legit. Ohio State needs to establish the run early, but I think they will struggle even with what they are doing with Hyde and Miller. Michigan State has the corners that can match up 1 on 1 in press coverage and stack the box. The two times that Ohio State faced top defenses (Iowa and Wisconsin) they were at home. This game is on a neutral field against a defense that is better than both Iowa/Wisconsin. I think Ohio State will get their points, but... Don't sleep on this Michigan State offense. I believe they can beat you with both the pass and run as Jeremy Langford has 7 straight 100+ yard rushing games. Connor Cook is very capable and his receivers have gotten drastically better since the beginning of the year. He has 17 TD's to only 4 interceptions behind an offensive line that's 15th in the country in sack % allowed. Ohio State's secondary is weak and when they can't get to the QB they really struggle defensively down field. This is where Michigan State is going to shock people I feel. People only think of this Spartans team as a defensive team, but the offense really has not been as bad as the stats indicate. When you have a defense that is that good you don't have to take chances. However, in the Big Ten Championship you can especially when all the pressure is on Ohio State. Another X-factor is punter Mike Sadler who will certainly pin Ohio State deep in their territory like he has done all year long. |
|||||||
12-07-13 | Missouri -1 v. Auburn | Top | 42-59 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
[b]Missouri -1 +102 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I'm taking the Tigers in the SEC Championship.. What does Auburn have left at this point? They just beat their most hated rival in emotional fashion. I think this Auburn team has been very lucky at points and Nick Saban handed them that game with some questionable coaching decisions and 4 missed field goals. Missouri has to feel like they are getting no respect for the lack of media attention and that just fuels them and fits in with their season long mantra. Nobody thought this Missouri team belonged last year, but very quietly Gary Pinkel has his team in contention to get to Pasadena. Pinkel has to remember a similar situation 6 years ago ranked #1 losing in the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma. Now he has a second chance at something truly special. There will not be a lack of preparation in this spot. Who is Missouri? I said it last week after week this team is completely balanced and really does not have a weakness. Their offense is balanced and as explosive as any offense is with Henry Josey at RB averaging well over 6 ypc, James Franklin an accurate mistake free QB, and the big receivers in a spread offense that's going to be a nightmare for Auburn's over rated defense. Auburn struggled vs. Georgia and A&M both who have balanced offenses. Now they found a way to win those games, but lets be honest they were extremely lucky that Manziel missed 2 possessions due to an injury and they won on a miracle play vs. Georgia. Missouri beat both of those teams, has just as good of an offense and a far better defense. Why Is Missouri better? Let's look at conference averages. In conference play Auburn has allowed 4.7 ypc while Missouri has allowed 3.53. In conference play Missouri has allowed a 121 QB rating while Auburn has allowed 137. This is simply a miserable match up for Auburn because Missouri has the athleticism and speed to turn Nick Marshall into a pocket passer and force him to make mistakes which I think will happen as Missouri has the longest active streak of forcing at least 1 turnover in a game. Auburn is -1 turnover margin in conference play while Missouri is +11. Auburn's offense is more one dimensional than people will admit. Nick Marshall has had a nice season and has made plays with arms when he's had to but now he faces the best corner in the SEC in E.J. Gaines who just got done shutting down All American Mike Evans to 4 receptions for 8 yards. Sammy Coates is like the only receiving weapon for Auburn another reason why I feel this is just a bad match up for Auburn. Auburn will get their yards, but Missouri will force the turnovers and be more explosive on offense and they'll come up with what I think will be a 7+ point win. |
|||||||
12-07-13 | Marshall v. Rice +7 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Rice +7 3.3* play (12pm start)
This line has jumped to +7 points and I'm going to jump on the value here as Rice has been very solid all year long and Marshall comes off a win at home against East Carolina that was just a bit deceiving because East Carolina played their worst game turning the ball over 3 times and allowing Marshall to convert on 10 of their 14 3rd downs. Marshall on the road is not the same team and they will have a tougher time on the road here with Rice allowing just 28.95 % on third down. This is a veteran Rice team with a ton of upper classmen. Rice is also +8 in turnover margin at home compared with Marshall who is -7 on the road. Rice will lean on Charles Ross at RB to run the ball and Marshall has shown signs at times this year of trouble stopping the run. as 5 teams rushed for 184+ yards on them. Even East Carolina who ranked 85th in rushing ypc had 5.14 ypc last week. Rice is very efficient converting on 71% of their red zone attempts into TD's while Marshall in 6 road games has allowed 30 attempts and 63% attempts. Compare that with Rice who has allowed only 9 red zone attempts at home this season. They have only allowed 8 total TD's at home this season and Marshall's passing offense will be tested. Only Houston has thrown for over 300 yards and only Johny Manziel has completed over 58.3% of his passes against this under rated Rice defense. |
|||||||
12-07-13 | Oklahoma +10.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
[b]Oklahoma +10 4.4* Big 12 GOW[/b]
Both teams are off a bye, but this is a huge rivalry game one that Oklahoma has lost 2 out of the last 3 years. I think they will put more in this game then their bowl game. Meanwhile Oklahoma State could be suffering from a hang over after defeating Baylor in dominating fashion. More than anything I think this line is inflated for the way Baylor beat up on Oklahoma and how Oklahoma State beat up on Baylor. Both teams are going to try to establish the run and Oklahoma is very good at doing so and dominating at time of possession. Oklahoma will almost certainly own time of possession as Oklahoma State is the worst in the Big 12 while Oklahoma is among the best with over a 5 minute advantage. Can Oklahoma run on Oklahoma State? I think the answer is yes they are really clicking right now with 6.1 ypc in their last 3 games and rank 12th in the country. Oklahoma State this season has been good, but a lot of their struggles have been hidden by the fact that they have been able to force so many turnovers. They allowed 202 yards to a Kansas team that ranks 100th in rushing ypc. Oklahoma State also got lucky when they faced Baylor who was banged up on offense at RB. This will be the very best rushing team they will face all season long. Oklahoma won't turn the ball over which is what Oklahoma State needs to blow a team out. Oklahoma State is not nearly as lethal on offense as the stats suggest and they're only converting 40% on third down but they are +16 in turnover margin, but Oklahoma has only turned it over 14 times all year and this should be a game that is decided by a TD or less either way. |
|||||||
12-06-13 | Bowling Green +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 43 m | Show |
[b]Bowling Green +3.5 -115 4.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
The wrong team is favorited in this match up and I'm taking the points with great value. Northern Illinois is a tremendous team, but they are flawed and one dimensional. They have significant issues stopping the pass and have struggled to stop the run at times as well. Their defense was much stronger last year and now they have to face Bowling Green that is just a much more complete team. Don't buy into all the hype on one player. Football is a team sport and Bowling Green statistically does not have many weaknesses. They are top 10 in defense in the country and top 30 in offense without being ranked out side the top 40 in rushing or passing offense/defense as well as scoring or rushing defense. Northern Illinois has only played 1 team inside the top 50 in rushing defense and the majority of their opponents rank 95th or worse vs. the run. Lynch won't be able to pass the ball in this game and Bowling Green can reliever their linebackers to concentrate 100% on the run which will be the difference. I think Bowling Green is far too dominant on this side of the ball and they've gotten better as the year has gone on. They are better on third down offensively and defensively and the same goes in the red zone where they have only allowed 10 possessions in their red zone in conference play. Northern Illinois is more than double that. Matt Johnson and his offense will find time with a balanced attack, dominate the time of possession while Jordan Lynch will struggle to find his way. |
|||||||
12-05-13 | Louisville -3 v. Cincinnati | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
[b]Louisville -3 3.3* play[/b]
I'm laying the road chalk in this game, I think both teams are mirror images of each other, but Lousiville has the better QB. Both teams have balanced attacks running and passing 50% of the time. Both teams are average at running the ball to below average although Louisville is a bit better and same goes in run defense as both teams are stout at stopping the run with Louisville being a little better. That means that this game is going to be put on the arm of these QB's and turnovers will play a critical role in the outcome. Cinci is -5 in turnover margin on the year and -4 in their last 3 games while Louisville is +15 so expect turnovers to be the reason why Louisville win it or lose it. I'll also take Bridgewater over Kay who has faced some awful competition this year. He has not faced a single team ranked in the top 50 in opposing QB rating defense while at least Bridgewater played UCF and had a good game. He's passing for a higher %, more yards per attempt and has a 25 TD to 3 INT ratio compared with Kay who is 22/9. The biggest difference is Bridgewater does not get rattled on the road and I think he'll be able to quiet this crowd very early on. Who has the better pass defense? It's really hard to say because neither of them have been truly tested, but Lousiville has more talent and has been more consistent. The two times Cincinnati faced a capable QB or passing game was against SMU who passed for 403 yards 2 TD and 0 INT and Illnois who passed for 312 yards and 4 TD and 0 INT. Louisville's pass defense is stacked and solid all year allowing a 98 QB rating in conference play which is 19 pts better than Cincinnati against the same opponents. They're allowing just 50.8% completions 5.8 yards per attempt and have allowed only 8 TD to 14 INT. At the end of the day this is going to be a tight game, but I think Louisville can pull it off as I think Cinci has had the much easier schedule and has been far less dominating. |
|||||||
11-30-13 | UCLA v. USC -3.5 | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
USC -3.5 3.3* play I started getting out in front of fading UCLA two weeks ago when they were lucky against Washington and it was my game of the week last week with Arizona State. Those two games were at home and now this team has to go on the road with a beat up team particurly on the offensive line to face an elite defense. UCLA gave up 9 sacks a week ago and really struggle with elite defenses. USC has an elite defensive front that will cause major issues for Brett Hundley with George Uko and Leonard Williams leading the way. USC players are home in a big rivalry game that means an awful lot in recruiting. I expect USC to dominate as they are playing for their coach who the players adore. USC is just the better team and is more healthy at this point. The offense is well balanced with serious weapons in the passing game with Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor. UCLA has a lot of strengths on defense and NFL players at each level, but they just can't dominate a game against an offense that can beat you running the ball and passing the ball. This defense is also going to be on the field a lot of this game and will get worn out as UCLA will have a few three and outs early that will set up the tone for the entire game.
|
|||||||
11-30-13 | Texas A&M v. Missouri -3.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
]Missouri -3.5 2.2* play[/b]
This line has dropped to inside 4 points and I'm going to jump on it before it goes back up. Johny Manziel is banged up and while he had troubles with LSU last year too his 16-41 224 yards 1 TD and 2 INT performance was as bad as it gets. Now he goes on the road against the SEC's best pass rush. He will put up big yards because Missouri secondary gives up yards, but they are timely allowing just 14 TD on the year and 18 interceptions. Manziel has been known to throw the interceptions by trying to come up with the big play and I think that's what we will see today. On the other side of the ball Missouri is just too good. A&M has not been able to stop teams that have no balance and only do one thing well now they are being asked to stop Missouri's offense which is top 25 in both passing and running. I expect James Franklin to have a big game connecting with his big receivers and for the running game to continue to work. A&M is 109th in rushing defense allowing 5.3 ypc and they are 79th in opposing QB rating. |
|||||||
11-30-13 | Boston College v. Syracuse +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
Syracuse +3 -120 5.5* NCAAF POD
Syracuse is fighting for their 6th victory at home in the Carrier Dome and they'll need to beat a hot Boston College team that suddenly has a Heisman Trophy candidate. Andrew Williams has 2,073 rushing yards and BC will run the ball 66% of the time and when they do pass it they will pass the ball to Alex Amidon 50% of the time. Not a hard offense to figure out which is why they have issues in the red zone and on third down converting only 29% of their 3rd down attempts in conference play and 40% of ther red zone attempts on the road. Syracuse has a good recipe to come up with the upset in their own building. Syracuse has a nasty front 7 that's capable of dominating a running game. They've only allowed 2.64 ypc at home and only 4 rushing TD's, but what is more impressive is they have not allowed a single running back to get over 100 yards all year long. Marquis Spurill, Cameron Lynch and Dyshawn Davis will have their eyes on Williams all day long. On the flip side Syracuse needs to run the ball to win and BC is allowing 4.21 ypc on the road. The twin duo of Jerome Smith and Prince-Tyson Gulley and the threat of Terrel Hunt running will be enough to move the ball and pick up first downs. This team is better at picking up third downs and in the red zone. BC is allowing 74% red zone TD % on the road this year and they are completely one dimensional. Chase Rettig is a good QB at home, but on the road he's just not good. Syracuse is allowing 145 less yards at home than BC is on the road and I don't think they should be favorites. |
|||||||
11-30-13 | Northwestern -3.5 v. Illinois | 37-34 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
Northwestern -3 -120 buy the hook
Illinois strength is passing the ball, but late November is no time to be throwing hte ball in the swirling winds that will rule the Chicago air. Northwestern is excellent in stopping the run and they are great at running the ball led by Treyvon Green who is averaging 5.70 ypc. Add in Cain Kolter who should play tomorrow and you have a recipe for success when you talk about how bad Illinois is on defense. Illinois is allowing 5.65 ypc and they have allowed 29 TD, and they can't stop the pass or turn you over either allowing 21 TD to just 3 INT on the year. Illinois also comes off their first win in Big Ten play in over 2 years meanwhile Northwestern is trying to get their first win in Big Ten play all year. I have been impressed with this Northwestern team they have gone 0-7 in conference play and all 7 teams have a winning record and now they get a cupcake. Every tough loss they bounced back and were in the next game and I expect nothing less from a Pat Fitzgerald coached team here on Saturday. They won't be going to a bowl game, but they absolutely want to win a conference game and this is just too juicy to pass up. Northwestern is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 following a home double digit loss. Northwestern should win this by double digits but even if they shoot themselves in the foot again Illinois is not capable at all. |
|||||||
11-30-13 | Florida State v. Florida +29.5 | 37-7 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
[b]Florida Gators +28.5 4.4* EB play[/b]
Classic buy low sell high situation here with the Gators just losing at the swamp to a FCS team and won't be going bowling for the first time since 1979. This team is down, but with there biggest in state rival coming to the swamp this has become their bowl game. I think it's the exact reason they lost last week as the team was clearly looking ahead to this week against Florida State. This game was going to be bigger and better than anything they would have gotten from the bowl selection committee. Better yet Florida State does not need a blow out here. They just need to show up win, and win in the ACC Championship game and they're off to Pasadena to play in the national championship. Even with all that I still looked under the hood to see if I could really find value on this play. First thing I noticed was Florida State is out scoring opponents 55-11 on average, but this is the best defense they have played all year even if the Gators are without a some of their best players. Florida State really has not faced a team that's capable of stopping the pass. They've faced a few that are good in total defense but none of which are dominant in both and Florida is #1 in pass efficiency defense at home as opponent QB's have a 70.7 QB rating. The second best pass defense at home is 10 points off. Jameis Winston is about to get tested for the first time all season against a top pass defense and he won't have an easy time getting yards on the ground either the way the Gators have defended the run. Bottom line the ACC is a weak conference and I don't see Winston having a great game with all the criminal accusations going on. I wouldn't be shocked to see Florida have a chance to win this game in the end if they can force some turnovers. |
|||||||
11-29-13 | Oregon State v. Oregon -23 | 35-36 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
[b]Oregon -23 3.3* play[/b]
The 117th meeting of the Civil War game and there is not much on the line with Oregon State already in a bowl game and not likely to improve which bowl game they get and the Oregon Ducks out of the BCS. Oregon will look to rebound at home after a tough road loss to Arizona and I think they take it out on their in state rival showing the state that you still come to Oregon if you want to compete for national championships. Washington just hung 69 points and nearly 700 total yards with their back up QB against Oregon State on the road. Now that same defense has to go defend marcus Mariota and De'Anthony Thomas combo. Oregon will run wild put 50+ points win this by 30+. |
|||||||
11-29-13 | Iowa +3 v. Nebraska | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
Iowa +3 -115 4* Early Bird
Before we get into what each team does well lets take a look at strength of schedule. Iowa had to play Northern Illinois in their non conference schedule and have played the 3 best teams in the conference in Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Nebraska has not had to face either Ohio state and Wisconsin and they were completely dominated at home by an over rated UCLA team. In fact Nebraska needed a hail mary to beat the worst team in the Big Ten. When it comes to match ups this game is all about running the ball and stopping the run so lets start off by looking at run defense. Nebraska has definitely improved, but hidden in their ranking for ypc run defense is the fact that they let 6 teams run for 195+ yards and they have allowed 18 rushing TD's. Iowa has only let 3 teams do that and they have allowed 4 rushing TD's to the two best running teams in the conference (arguably the country). Both Ohio State and Wisconsin are #1 and #2 in YPC and Nebraska just has not had to go up against a team like that. Okay, so Nebraska has the better running game with Abduallah however it's not by much. The biggest issue here other than Iowa's experienced linebacking crew is the fact that Nebraska has another QB in there. Ron Kellogg will start over an injured Tommy Armstrong. Kellogg is not very good at running the zone option which is what makes Abdualla better than he is. Kellogg does have a strength passing the ball, but now there is significant tape on him and his tendencies after he threw the ball 34 times against Penn State. In the end this is a Nebraska team that's lucky to be 8-3 and an Iowa team that's hungry to finally beat them in Big10 play. Special teams, and field position will be critical and Iowa has the best punt return game in the Big Ten while Nebraska is last. Nebraska also has issues with turnovers and fumbles. I'm thinking we will see some fumbles as Nebraska tries to run their usual option offense with another new QB. |
|||||||
11-28-13 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +4.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
Miss State +4.5 5.5* NCAAF POD
The Egg Bowl is a huge rivalry game that's back on Thanksgiving and I'm thankful for that. The home team has won 8 of the last 9 meetings and we are catching Miss State as a 4.5 dog and I'm thankful for that. This is a hang over game for Ole Miss who just lost to Missouri on Saturday. Normally when teams suffer big losses they don't have to play 5 day later that's something that comes out of the NFL. Although they don't have to travel they still have to go on the road and that's a very challenging spot for a college team. Miss State is going to have much more energy on a very cold night that better suits their game plan. They are also playing for a bowl game because they are 5-6 while Ole Miss is 7-4. This is the exact opposite case as last year and we saw a Miss State that came out flat, already in a bowl game against an Ole Miss team fighting for a bowl game. Ole Miss has definitely put themselves back on the map with an exciting offense and a top tier recruiting class. Bo Wallace at QB has been great, but I'm still not sold on him on the road. He's got a 118 QB rating on the road to his 161 at home this year and that's nothing new as he has a 122 on the road last year compared with 160 at home. Ole Miss needs to pass to move the ball and MIss State's secondary has been very good only allowing a QB rating of 119 at home. Throw in the fact that it will be in the 20's and Ole MIss struggled or at least let the weather bother them with drops in last weeks game. I'm just not sold on this offense putting up 30 or 40 points on the road and if they do their defense... Is very small up front allowing over 5 yards per carry in conference play. They have no talent in the front 4 with solid linebackers behind them. That won't get it done against a run first team like Miss State which has been able to run the ball well. Even though they don't know who they will start at QB. I think that throws more question marks at Ole Miss who will be challenged to put together a defensive game plan. Either way Miss state should be able to run the ball as they are averaging 4.82 yards per carry in conference play and they have played all the big boys including Auburn, LSU, Bama, South Carolina and A&M and in non conference play they played the best out of the Big 12 in Oklahoma State who are 18th in the country vs. the run. To go along with that Miss State has been better offensively in the red zone and that's because they can run the ball. They are also better in third down defense allowing just 28% conversions at home, TO margin and many other key categories. This is a huge rivalry and very big in state recruiting battle that Ole Miss won last year. I think it will be a big statement for Miss State to win this game so they can say they have won 4 out of the last 5. |
|||||||
11-28-13 | Texas Tech v. Texas -4 | 16-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
Texas -4 3.3* play[/b]
I will take the home favorite in this game. Not only is Mack Brown 7-0 vs. Tech at home, but he's 21-5 following an open date. I think after getting beat by Oklahoma State it's exactly what this team needed. Now it will be back to the drawing board and back to the game plan that got them in position to contend in the Big 12. That game plan is running the football and allowing Case McCoy to be a game manager that will take some shots down field to keep a defense honest. McCoy had 3 INT's in his last game and when this Texas team does not turn the ball over they win games. It helps that the Red Raiders only have 7 interceptions on the year while being -12 in TO margin. You just can't back a team that turns the ball over 28 times on the season. The Longhorns meanwhile are +7 in TO margin with 23 forced and it will be a major advantage for them in this game. More importantly Texas can get back to what it does best which is running the ball. They are 5-0 when they rush for more than 4 yards per carry which seems like a given on Thursday night. The Tech defense has been decimated in the last 4 games allowing more than 5 ypc in every one and over 275 yards rushing in every game. They just are not very good at stopping the run and there is no way around it. Texas has been cold at times running the ball but they average over 5 yards per carry at home. They struggled in 3 of their last 4 games because they played top 25 defenses. TCU is ranked 13th in ypc run defense, Oklahoma State 18th, and West Virginia is in the top 25 in run defense in their own building allowing just 3.5 ypc which is where Texas played them. Tech comes into this game ranked 82nd nationally and is allowing 5.8 ypc in their last 3 games overall. Now Tech's passing offense is elite, however it's only because they throw so much. Tech's OL continues to shuffle guys and will be challenged by Texas' defensive front which is ranked 11th in sack %. They are also 26th in opponent QB rating and 49th in yards/attempt. Texas can be inconsistent and have to come up with a way to stop TE Jake Amaro, but with the extra time and Mack Brown being a very good coach when it seems like the world is against him always seems to come up with a win. |
|||||||
11-23-13 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State +10 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 44 h 51 m | Show | |
Okl St +290 1* / Okl St +10 4.4* BIG12 GOW; UNDER 78 2.2* PLAY[/b]
Okay this is the game of the week and a lot of questions are out there on whether or not Baylor can remain undefeated. There are a few signs that tell me no and I'll break it all done. First lets get the under out of the way. 78 points is just too many points when you look at these two teams whose strengths reside on the defensive side, but are known as high flying offenses. We definitely have an over hyped total here and I'll go on the under. Baylor and Oklahoma State start with the run on offense both teams are top 20 in stopping the run. Both teams are allowing just 32% in third down conversions, and both teams allowing under 50% red zone TD % on defense. For Baylor this season has been incredible, but only one problem. They have played only two road games. Are you serious? For all of their glory they have struggled in two games despite the final scores. Kansas State on the road and at home against Oklahoma who had them on the ropes for most of the first half. Why does Oklahoma State have a better shot? They are just far more balanced than those two teams and they are at home. For one they are better at stopping the run and running the ball than Oklahoma. And they can actually pass the ball unlike Kansas State who was missing their top 2 targets. Oklahoma features a QB that can run the ball much like Kansas State's Daniel Sams who had a ton of success rushing. The biggest issue for Baylor is the run defense of Oklahoma State that ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed because Seastrunk is banged up and they are now without Spencer Drango. Baylor will have a hard time also stretching the defense as Oklahoma State are sure tacklers, and ranked 13th in yards/ attempt. Both Oklahoma and Kansas State were top 30 in yards/attempt and gave Baylor issues in the passing game. Oklahoma State though is better than both, and have the better offense. Baylor may win the game but asking them to win by double digits on the road is just too much especially since Oklahoma State is just a bad match up for them and they are on the road in Stillwater where it's going to be in the low 30's possibly some snow and they have not won since 1939. |
|||||||
11-23-13 | Missouri -2 v. Ole Miss | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 44 h 37 m | Show | |
[b]Missouri -2.5 3.3* play[/b]
I think this line is predicated more on what Mississippi finally accomplished against a top tier SEC team in LSU than anything. They followed that up by beating mediocre teams and now have a shot to come up with the biggest win in a long time. Not so fast! Missouri is off 2 weeks rest and preps for the biggest game of the year because it's the next one. They win this game and lose next week against Manziel, but they have everything in line to get to the BCS Championship. Missouri is just a complete team right now and they really lack any weakness. I was down on the Tigers when they lost their senior QB but now James Franklin is back. Matty Mauk did a decent job, but Franklin is clearly better than Mauk. Franklin gets the right game to come back for because Mississippi is 109th in the country in sack % while Missouri's pass protection is pretty good at protecting their QB's. Missouri's pass defense is led by a 8.74% sack % on the road that should put some pressure on Bo Wallace who has struggled against good pass defenses and has a QB rating that's 30 points lower in conference play. Missouri can also run the ball and stop the run. They average 5.41 ypc in conference play and allow 3.12 ypc while Ole Miss is 3.67 and 5.16. Missouri is also +14 in turnover margin and should also have a chip on their shoulder because they still fly under the radar and are getting no respect. The big receivers will welcome back Franklin who will actually check down to wide open receivers unlike Mauk and beat you deep in the right spots. |
|||||||
11-23-13 | Arizona State -1.5 v. UCLA | Top | 38-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 7 m | Show |
[b]Arizona State -1.5 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Interesting how we have 65% or more of the public coming in on UCLA who is ranked higher than Arizona State but are under dogs in their own building. I'm going with Arizona State here for a few reasons including the fact that they will have some revenge from last year's 3 point loss at home. The last 2 weeks have exposed UCLA a bit here and this offense that many consider elite is not. They struggle against elite front 7's and that's exactly what Arizona State has. UCLA start 3 freshmen along the offensive line and now they have been letting a linebacker run the ball? Myles Jack has been great and a good story, but he has had some fumble issues that he's lucky have not hurt him. Sutton, Bradfor and Coleman will dominate this game up front. UCLA is allowing Hundley to be sacked 7.21% of his drop backs while Arizona State is 22nd in sack %. That will be the difference in this game as Arizona State's secondary is very good allowing just 53% completions and have 17 interceptions. Hundley was very bad against the other two good pass defenses he faced throwing 1 TD and 4 interceptions. Okay, so Arizona State flat out dominated Washington at home holding them to 212 yards while putting up 585. UCLA was out gained on a Friday night and were very lucky that Washington turned the ball over 4 times and their QB got hurt too. UCLA was so lucky that they jumped on 4 fumbles in the first half alone including one that Myles Jack lost and kicked 30 yards while two Huskies defenders squandered a chance to jump on the ball. It changed the entire aspect of that game. Arizona State is too opportunistic and is clearly the better team right now. UCLA's secondary is going to struggle and the no huddle offense will wear them down. Arizona State is just more experienced on both sides of the ball and it will show on Saturday. Todd Graham has constantly made adjustments to fit his players strength and I think he deserves coach of the year honors especially if they get to play Oregon for the PAC 12 Championship which is what is on the line in this game. |
|||||||
11-23-13 | BYU v. Notre Dame +1.5 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 40 h 47 m | Show | |
Notre Dame has won more games against Top 25 teams than anyone else right now as they are 3-0 beating Arizona State, Michigan State and USC. Notre Dame comes off a bye week and have plenty of seniors going in their last home game. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games off a bye and are fighting for a better bowl game. Considering BYU stands to gain nothing but another W in the win column the motivation and preparation are on Notre Dame's side. BYU already accepted a spot in the Fight Hunger Bowl and have struggled on the road this year.
Their 3 road games were against Houston, Wisconsin, Virginia where they went 1-2, and they came up with a big win at Utah State who lost Chuckie Keeton. Their win at Houston only came by 1 point where they lost to Virginia and Wisconsin. Traveling east for this mountain team is not something they are very good at. For Notre Dame the difference is in Tommy Rees. The 3 losses have come against elite pass defenses and 2 on the road. Oklahoma's pass defense is far better than BYU's and BYU can not come close to getting to the QB ranking 96th in sack % where Notre Dame is ranked 4th in protecting their QB. I believe with time to throw Rees will make the smart decisions leading to an Irish victory unlike what we saw on Sons Of Anarchy this week. |
|||||||
11-23-13 | East Carolina v. North Carolina State +6.5 | 42-28 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 53 m | Show | |
NC STATE +6 2.2* PLAY
NC State is 25-12 ATS in their last 39 home games and have played well this year at home. The real strength of this NC State team has been the defense and in particular the passing defense which fits into what East Carolina likes to do. NC State has only allowed 3 passing TD's at home and have 8 interceptions. Their recent losses were not as bad as the final scores indicate and they have been in striking distance in the 4th quarter and should be against East Carolina on Saturday. NC State has already gone 0-3 against in state teams this year and they should be fully motivated to win this game to avoid the 0-4 embarrassment. East Carolina is likely looking ahead as this game does not mean much. Their game next week at Marshall means everything as they'll be fighting for a chance to go to the Conference USA Championship. When you look at East Carolina's schedule it's really been an easy go. They are still a one dimensional offense that is not as good on this side of the ball as in years past, but are much better on defense. In the end I don't think this offense is that elusive as they are 0-2 against the two top 30 pass defenses they have faced. NC State is ranked 21st in opposing QB rating and that should keep them in the game. NC State is still fighting for something and I think they come up with a win. |
|||||||
11-22-13 | Navy +3 v. San Jose State | 58-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
[b]Navy +3 -115 3.5* play[/b]
Normally I like to fade teams at this point in the year when they are bowl eligible and not fighting for a better bowl game like Navy is. Especially when they are facing a team that's desperate to get bowl eligible like San Jose State is at 5-5. However, Navy has some real revenge in this spot after being shutout a year ago. This Navy team has played really well of late and that will continue to build into this game. San Jose State has some players, but their defense is not even close to what it was last year. They just got done losing to Nevada on the road where they were a TD favorite and they lost by a lot and allowed 300+ yards. I don't think San Jose State can shut down Navy's running game since they are allowing over 5 yards per carry at home. San Jose State's offense led by QB David Fales has been impressive at some points, but mostly just disappointing. This team can not score in the red zone or convert on third downs. They are converting just 37% of their red zone opportunities into TD's and that can not happen especially when Navy is so good in the red zone scoring 73% TD's in the red zone. San Jose State also turns the ball over too much -2 in turnover margin while Navy is +7. Navy is just a better overall team that wants to revenge the last two years of losses against the Spartans and the Spartans are just a bad football team right now that you can't back in this one. |
|||||||
11-19-13 | Kent State v. Ohio -6.5 | 44-13 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Ohio -6.5 2.2* play
|
|||||||
11-16-13 | Stanford v. USC +4.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 45 h 38 m | Show | |
[b]USC +4.5 2.75* PLAY[/b]
Stanford has got to be due for a hangover after the mental preparation that was needed to defeat Oregon on the road. I don't care how smart these guys are and it's not like their offense is blowing teams away it's been the play of the defense that has mattered and USC can absolutely match them there especially in their own building. I see USC coming up with a shocking win here as USC poses a completely different threat with the talented receivers and aerial game that they have. Mariotta and Oregon is a finesse team that relies more on the spread and run game than they do a passing pro style offense like USC. Like I mentioned Stanford won't run away with this one and USC is ranked 22nd in sack % and 24th in run defense with only 1 team rushing for more than 200 yards all year. That one team was Arizona State and it came on the road in Lane Kiffin's last game. This is a completely different USC team and they are allowing less than 3 yards per carry at home. Stanford has to run the ball to win and they tend to play in close games against defense that can match them physically like Utah did. Utah was allowing 1 yard per run more than USC and they got the win. I look for USC to really come up with their biggest win in many years. |
|||||||
11-16-13 | Oklahoma State -3 v. Texas | 38-13 | Win | 103 | 40 h 28 m | Show | |
[b]Oklahoma St -3 +105 4.5* Big12 GOW[/b]
Texas got a big win in OT against West Virginia and Oklahoma State lost to West Virginia yet Oklahoma State is a road favorite? That's right Oklahoma State is one of the hottest teams in the Big 12 since that loss. They are flying way under the radar on defense. They are ranked 10th in opposing QB rating and 19th in ypc run defense. Which has resulted in 29% conversion rate allowed on 3rd down and 45% TD percentage in red zone while their pass defense gives up yards they have 16 interceptions leading to a +11 turnover margin. Case McCoy plays mistake free games, but he's going to have to pass the ball here to win and he's not that great. Texas was really lucky because West Virginia turned the ball over 5 times and they still almost lost. Texas now snuck into the top 25 in BCS, but it's not going to last long. I don't think they can over come some of the injuries that have hit the team with 2 linebackers suffering knee injuries and their main man up front in DT Whaley out along with star RB Jonathan Gray and Oklahoma State can absolutely stop the run. A couple of X factors that are on the side of Oklahoma Stater are special teams and the ability of QB Clint Chelf to run the ball. Oklahoma State has superb special teams returning ability 25.5 yards/kick return and 15.12 per punt. Texas has allowed about the same on the flip side so Oklahoma State will set themselves up in good field position. Chelf has been solid in the running game rushing for 7.7 ypc and had a 67 yarder vs. Texas Tech on the road. Texas has not faced a capable running QB in a while and we all know their struggles as they are well documented. You don't have to go back to the BYU game just take a look at Iowa State's Sam Richardson's 17 carries for 83 yards. This defense is still vulnerable especially vs. an Oklahoma State team that is turning their trips into the red zone into TD's at a 90% clip on the road. |
|||||||
11-16-13 | Miami (Florida) -3.5 v. Duke | 30-48 | Loss | -104 | 40 h 28 m | Show | |
[b]Miami -3 -115 4.5* ACC GOW[/b]
Miami has great value here in my opinion despite playing on the road after back to back wins. Dukes defense has played great all year, but a closer look reveals why. For one they have not faced a balanced offense all year. Miami is a balanced offense even without Duke Johnson ranking 35th QB rating and 40th in rushing ypc. Duke's defense has played mostly no dimensional offenses as they have faced only two top 75 passing teams and two top 75 rushing teams. Neither one of those teams were able to do both and all 4 had a ton of success at what they are good at. The two good rushing teams combined for 574 yards rushing on 110 carries and the two passing teams were 60-83, 786 yards, 8 TD and 1 interception. Miami can do both and they are an angry team after two tough losses. I expected last weekend's loss against Virginia Tech after they gave everything the week before against an instate rival and ranked Florida State team. They came out flat and had to play a tough Virginia Tech team that features a top 10 defense. Duke is not a top 10 defense and given what I found out through research above they are not even close! Their offense is not great either as their two QB's have combined for 0 TD and 7 interceptions in the last two games despite winning. Miami has an opportunistic defense and is 19th in takeaways. Duke's win over NC State by 18 points was not as big as the box score shows. They were lucky or NC State is just that bad that Duke was able to get 21 points with two six picks and a kick return TD by S Devon Edwards. Miami will not let that happen. |
|||||||
11-16-13 | Georgia +4 v. Auburn | Top | 38-43 | Loss | -115 | 40 h 15 m | Show |
[b]Georgia +4 5.5* NCAAF POD; Georgia +150 2* bonus[/b]
First of all Georgia is still alive in the SEC race for the SEC Championship game which is huge for their motivation in this game. Secondly, Auburn just is not that good and we will break down why. Georgia is the most complete team that Auburn has faced all year and really a bad match up for them, the worst since their 2 TD loss to LSU. Georgia also got an extra week to get healthy and prepare after facing Appalachan State last week. Georgia is getting healthier on both sides of the ball and it's going to pay off down the stretch. Auburn has had the liberty of facing some very bad run defenses. IN fact they have not faced a single top 60 run defense all year long. The best was LSU and we know how that game went. On average they have faced an average run defense ranked 92nd run defense and Georgia is ranked 28th in ypc allowed. This defense as a whole has only gotten better and I think Auburn is a bit one dimensional here so I expect them to struggle. At time QB Nick Marshall has proven he can throw the ball, but is he 100%? I don't think so and when you can get an extra week to scheme for a one dimensional game with the strength of your defense you should be able to come up with some stops and I think that's what Georgia will do. Defensively, Auburn is not very good they have allowed 4 teams to rush for 5+ypc and 200+ yards. We have seen holes in their defense the last 2 games alone against Arkansas and Tennesse, both one dimensional offenses with passing attacks ranked 114th, and 117th in QB rating. This Auburn secondary gives up big plays against bad teams never mind Aaron Murray. They are last in the SEC in big passing plays allowed with 27 plays allowed of 25+ yards. This is just the second offense that Auburn has faced that ranks top 35 in both rushing and passing offense. Texas A&M being the other and they had 600 total yards and put up 600 yards and Johny Manziel missed 2 series. A&M has one of the worst defenses too and probably would have won that game if Manziel didn't have to miss a couple of series. With that said Georgia's defense is much better as A&M is ranked 107th vs. the run so even though Georgia can put up 41 points I don't think they have to. In the end Georgia just has the right ingredients to pull the upset and I think there is tremendous value based on the Auburn hype which is well deserved but has come against weak competition. Georgia's aggressive defensive play will be the difference as they cruise to a win. |
|||||||
11-16-13 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh | 34-27 | Win | 103 | 38 h 45 m | Show | |
North Carolina +100 3* play
Pitt is off a big win vs. Notre Dame so they are automatically over valued in this game, but North Carolina has quietly moved themselves back into position to compete for a bowl game after a 1-5 start. When you look at their schedule they really have had a tough schedule and have lost to 5 good teams. UNC has really stepped up on both sides of the ball as the defense is now getting a better pass rush 7.84% in their last 3. That's an issue for Pitt because they have not been able to protect Tom Savage (116th in pass protection) and their rushing offense is not good enough to take advantage of North Carolina's weakness which is their run defense. Pitt has averaged 1.91 ypc in conference play and 3.49 overall. They only time they ran for more than 4 yards per carry was against New Mexico, the worst run defense in the nation and Old Dominion. North Carolina on the flip side has been great on offense despite losing their QB Bryan Renner. Marqise Williams has sparked the running game and has been good enough in the passing game because of the weapons he has at his disposal with TE Eric Ebron and WR Quinshad Davis being two of the best in the ACC at their respective positions. Pitt will be missing two of their CB's so UNC should be able to expose them in some packages and the ability to run as a QB only makes it harder for Pitt to defend. Pitt just got done allowing 5.8 ypc to Notre Dame a team that has not been able to run it all year with any consistency. UNC should be able to score and play defense and come up with a big win to keep their bowl hopes alive. |
|||||||
11-15-13 | Washington +3 v. UCLA | Top | 31-41 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
[b]Washington +3 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
This line looks a bit sketchy and the public is pounding UCLA, but the line is not moving and it's clear to me Vegas is gambling on this game too. Vegas loves the Huskies here tonight otherwise they'd move the line to -3.5 or -4 but it's going to -2.5 in some spots and I'd rather be on the experts side. I will give you information on why it's smart to be betting on Washington here tonight despite what UCLA has done this year. UCLA offensively behind Brett Hundley have gotten a ton of hype this year, but when they have faced really good defenses they have struggled. Washington has a very physical defensive line and is ranked 19th in opposing QB rating for a reason. Their defense fits in that mold of Oregon and Stanford, who stopped UCLA cold. Washington also gets to the QB at 9.28% of drop backs on the road while UCLA's offensive line has been a weakness this year ranked 92nd in sacked % and has been worse of late. UCLA does not have as much balance as Washington does and I'm not even so sure they have the better QB in this game as Keith Price has been amazing all year. UCLA went to a LB to give them some carries last week and while that made a great story for the media it's not going to be a regular thing. Hundley will have to be the one that carries this team to victory and while he's done it before I don't think he can tonight.. I have seen this offense go cold too many times and they were even struggling for a large part of the Utah game. I think UCLA was even lucky to get out with a win last week against Arizona even though we had UCLA as our Pac 12 game of the week. Meanwhile Washington is not getting the credit because they are behind Oregon and Stanford in the PAC 12 and have no shot at going to the PAC 12 Championship game. However, their 3 losses which came all in a row were more because of a scheduling spot. You won't see many teams that have to play three weeks in a row against 3 better teams all of which have contrasting styles. Washington moved the ball up and down the field on Stanford and should have won that game as they outgained them by 210 yards on the road while UCLA was outgained at Stanford by 153 yards and could not manage any offense. Washington also held on tight and were within 7 points against Oregon while UCLA was tied at half time fell apart in the 2nd half. I won't be surprised if UCLA gets off to a great start because they have done it for most of the year, but by the end of the game the better team will prevail and that is the Huskies behind next level players like Bishop Sankey at RB and Keith Price at QB connecting with TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Despite losing Kasen Williams they are still only 3 point under dogs? That tells you the story right there just how confident Vegas is in this line. Jaydon Mickens and Kevin Smith also have talent at receiver and UCLA won't be any good on defense vs. a balanced offense like Washington. |
|||||||
11-14-13 | Marshall v. Tulsa +13.5 | 45-34 | Win | 100 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
[b]Tulsa +13 2.2* play[/b]
Tulsa has some value here. One thing is for sure, Marshall has not played well on the road and have trouble stopping the run. Trey Watts should have a big game here tonight, and there is enough veteran leadership on both sides of the ball with senior LB Shawn Jackson, to come up with a big win. Tulsa has been killed by turnovers, but Marshall is -5 in turnover margin on the road. I think Dane Evans will be better tonight facing Marshall, a team that has not played well on the road. Tulsa has been a perennial contender in this division and they are looking towards the future, but I don't think this team has given up so look for them to try to beat Marshall, a team that has high hopes of being the conference winner this year. |
|||||||
11-12-13 | Buffalo v. Toledo -4 | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show | |
Toledo -4 3.3* play
Toledo runs a spread offense with a great running game, and they have the weapons on the outside to give the Buffalo defense major issues on the road. Buffalo surprised me last week against Ohio, but that gives us great value in this game if they had not won 30-3 over a solid Ohio team we would be looking at a TD spread. Toledo has been able to prepare an extra 3 days for this match up and this game is as big as any all year with the hype of Buffalo coming into this game. The question is, can Toledo's front 7 stop Branden Oliver, who has been a work horse and a dangerous back. Oliver and this offensive line has not played well on the road averaging close to a yard less in road games. He just faced Western Mich and Kent State on the road both who struggle stuffing the run. The difference between Toledo this year compared with previous years is their defense is stopping the run especially at home. Only 2 teams have rushed for more than 200 yards. One was Navy who runs a triple option that is difficult to prepare for and the other was Florida and that game was in Florida on the road. Buffalo has to travel pretty |
|||||||
11-09-13 | San Diego State +7 v. San Jose State | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show | |
San Diego State +7 4.4* Mountain West Game of the Week
San Diego State nearly beat Fresno State in regulation if it weren't for a missed FG and I think they match up well on the road against San Jose here. First of all San Diego State is 9-4 under Rocky Long on the road. People are excited about San Jose again, because they just averaged 6.93 ypc in their last game and if you can combine that with QB David Fales you have an explosive offense, but they played UNLV which ranked 120th in run defense while San Diego State ranks 42nd. It's back to having to pass to win a game for San Jose and that's usually not a bad thing for Fales and co, but.. He's missing his top receiver in Noel Grisby and San Diego State has a 9.41 sack % on the road and their all standing defense disguises coverages and blitzes well and I think it will be enough to confuse Fales who is coming off a bad game against UNLV. A bigger key in this game is San Jose's ability to stop the run. Adam Muema ran for 202 yards last year on just 25 carries, and San Diego State is averaging 5.10 yards per carry in conference play and is 4-0 when they rush for more than 200 yards. Good for them that SJSU is ranked 101st in run defense and is allowing 6.3 yards per carry at home. They have given up two 300+ yard rushing games and are at a disadvantage starting two freshmen in a new defensive scheme that has hurt them all year. San Diego State leads the conference in time of possession for a reason and have converted nearly 51% of their third downs in conference play and 72% of their possessions in the red zone into TD's. San Jose is at 39% on third down and 36% in red zone TD's. San Diego State's 4 losses have come against 4 opponents who are a combined 31-4. |
|||||||
11-09-13 | UCLA +2 v. Arizona | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show | |
]UCLA +2 3.3* Late Night Fix[/b]
UCLA is catching value here after the stock has dropped, but all they did was lose games they were supposed to against Oregon and Stanford and they played right with Oregon for a half as it was 14-14 at the half. This is a huge game for the PAC 12 South and the winner will be the new front runners to win it and get to the conference championship. Arizona is getting value here after 3 wins in a row, but that was against three conference opponents who have a combined record of 1-15 in PAC 12 play. Despite the numbers, Arizona's defense is vulnerable. They may be ranked 37th, but facing the best QB in Brett Hundley is about to uncover that. Hundley is backed by a solid running game led by Jordan James and one of the deepest group of receivers led by Shaq Evans, Fuller and Payton. Remember last year's game where UCLA put up over 600 yards and won 66-10. UCLA also held Arizona to 257 yards. That's because Arizona leans on Ka'Deem Carey too much and UCLA held him to 54 yards on 16 carries which was the last time an opponent has held him under 100 yards. UCLA's run defense has been fantastic with the exception of the Oregon game who has been the only team that has rushed for more than 4 yards per carry on UCLA. They stopped a good Nebraska one dimensional offense cold on the road. BJ Denker has been solid over the last three games which has led to Arizona being favored, but he's faced pass defenses ranked 110th, 114th and 83rd. UCLA is ranked 37th, and 25th in yards per attempt. In the end UCLA will find balance as Arizona is just too small up front in their 3-3-5 scheme that did not fool Hundley a year ago and won't again here. Jordan James will get back to having a big game running the ball and UCLA will get back to playing like a top 25 team. |
|||||||
11-09-13 | Arizona State v. Utah +7 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
Utah +7 4.4* PAC12 GOWUtah's stock could not be lower after back to back losses which was not indicative of how good this team is so naturally come into this game with a ton of value given the amount of hype going on with the Arizona State team that I do not think anyone should trust on the road. People forget that Utah knocked of Stanford which looks even better now that you see what happened to Oregon on Thursday night. These speed teams just do not match up well against the physical and mentally strong teams and that's what Utah has especially at home.
First of all it's worth bringing up that Utah off the bye and a healthy QB in Tyler Wilson will make a world of difference and I expect them to win this game. Arizona State's defense will have their hands full with a balanced offense as Utah has showed in many games this year they can beat you with their passing game behind Tyler Wilson and Dres Anderson catching the ball or behind the running of James Poole who had 22 carries and a 111 yards against Stanford. It is no shock that the running game faltered in the last two games (both on the road) against solid defenses with Utah not having a healthy Wilson. Arizona State loves to run tempo, but their most glaring weakness is Utah's strength. Arizona State's offensive line has struggled and Utah is 20th in sack %, but has gotten better as the season has gone along and are 3rd in sacks. Arizona State allowed 7.59 sack % in road games. Arizona State is just 37% on third downs on the road while Utah can set them up in third and longs as they can dominate a team up front trying to run the ball. Utah just held USC and Silas Redd to 30 yards on 30 carries. |
|||||||
11-09-13 | BYU +8.5 v. Wisconsin | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
[b]BYU +8 2.75 * PLAY[/b]
I am a big fan of Wisconsin, but I think they are going to have enough troubles with BYU team that brings unique challenges to the table. I think this is simply a bad match up for Wisconsin that they will have to grind out to get a win. First of all BYU is off an extra week of preparation for their biggest game of the year. Meanwhile Wisconsin dominated Iowa, but suffered a ton of bumps and bruises and a lot of key players are injured and questionable including their two best players on offense and defense. It's not a good time for that to happen because.... BYU is all about tempo ranked #1 with 92.8 plays per game. Wisconsin's defense has been dominated, but struggled with the two tempo teams they faced in Arizona State (loss), and Ohio State (loss). Wisconsin's defense gets loosened a little when you run tempo at them and QB Tayson Hill and Jamal Williams are real threats running the ball. I've really come around on Hill who had struggled because of injuries earlier in the season and could not complete 50% of his passes. All he's done over his last three games is complete 68% of his passes and he's put up big passing numbers against some good passing defense. BYU can also stop the run ranked 31st in run defense and without a 100% Abbrederis to threaten a secondary Wisconsin's rushing offense become easier to stop. |
|||||||
11-09-13 | Auburn v. Tennessee +8 | 55-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
Okay, Auburn's stock has never been higher while Tennessee's has never been lower and that automatically gives us value in this line. This is Auburn's 2nd road game in a row after they just faced a physical opponent. They are far too one dimensional running the ball 70% of the time as it seems QB Nick Marshall has some type of shoulder injury too. That still won't help Tennessee's rushing defense which is ranked very low, but a closer look and you realize that Tennessee has faced some of the very best rushing teams in Alabama, Oregon, Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina. Auburn is more one dimensional then all 5 of those teams. I'm not suggesting that Tennessee can stop Auburn's rushing offense, but they can certainly play to win this game. Remember they took Georgia to the wire, and they beat South Carolina at home. I'd argue both of those teams are better than Auburn.
The real key to beat Auburn is to run the ball. Arkansas showed last week it can be done easily as they put up 222 rushing yards, but made too many mistakes. Tennessee is backed by the league's best offensive line and are averaging 5.41 ypc at home. Auburn will also struggle to get to the QB, ranked 64th in sack %, TN rarely gives up sacks and giving Joshua Dobbs time to throw will be a dangerous proposition. Tenn is +8 in turnover margin at home and I think they should be able to move the ball just fine while their defense steps up enough to give Auburn troubles. Butch Jones is a very good coach and he's challenged his team this week, and the excitement of upsetting a top 10 team is there. Auburn is not that good even their road win against Texas A&M was flawed when Manziel missed two series because of his shoulder. Tennessee +8 3.3* play |
|||||||
11-07-13 | Oregon -10 v. Stanford | 20-26 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Oregon -10 3.3* Showdown
This is probably the game of the week even though I'm more partial to the LSU/Alabama match up. Revenge is a great thing in sports and that's what Oregon has on their side. How can they win this game after losing last year? For me Marcus Mariota is the key to this game and he's much more polished than a year ago. The passing attack is far better than it was a year ago which seems to have opened up the running game even more. I think Stanford's physical defense will have issues tonight because Mariota has 20 TD and 0 INT's this year. Washington, Utah, and Arizona State all put up 27-28 points on Stanford's defense. 2 of those games Stanford was at home and Oregon should have no trouble putting up 30+ points on Stanford's defense while I don't think Stanford can put up more than 20. For all the hype Oregon's offense gets their defense is just as good. Nick Aliotti gets no credit as the defensive coordinator, but Oregon's defense is ranked in the top 25 in many defensive categories including yards allowed per play (7th), 13th in red zone defense, 25th in rushing yards per carry, 20th in third down defense and more. In last year's game the Oregon front was banged up with 3 guys having serious injuries. This year they are healthy and according to Stanford head coach David Shaw, "They're bigger, longer, more physical, You can't hold the ball on a 3 man rush because they are getting to the QB." Oregon is smaller than Stanford, but I think they can crowd the box and stop the run with Keith Hogan at QB and the talent they have in their secondary. The secondary is better than a year ago and they can concentrate their efforts on stopping the run and Keith Hogan is not going to be able to beat them. Many will be hoping for Stanford to pull off the same upset as a year ago, but in the end I just don't think it's possible. Oregon is destined for the national championship this year, because of Aliotti and the defense. |
|||||||
11-07-13 | Oklahoma +15 v. Baylor | Top | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
[b]Oklahoma +15 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
All the hype has been on Baylor all year long with their regular ability to put up 70 points on below average defenses. Oklahoma's defense is not great, but it has the right ingredients to stay in this game on both sides of the ball. If you ask your average joe they would probably tell you Baylor throws the ball like crazy, but they are only throwing the ball 40% of the time which is about the same as Oklahoma. Part of that is because they get up early in games, but part of that is because they have a really talented running back in Lache Seastrunk. This rushing offense has not faced anyone that can stop the run with the exception of Kansas State who did hold them under 5 yards per carry. Oklahoma held them under 5 yards per carry last year and are ranked 64th against the run. They will still have issues stopping the run, but this Oklahoma defense is very good in other areas that should help them stay within the 15 points. Aside from Kansas State, Baylor has not faced a team in the top 70 in run defense this year. Baylor's offensive line which has been terrific has not been tested all year. Here are the pass rushes they have faced with ranks. 88th, 95th, 119, 102nd, 105th. Oklahoma is only ranked 68th, but parlay that with the fact that they are 5th in yards per attempt and Baylor is going to have a hard time getting their big yards over the top. Petty at QB is still low on experience and has not faced a pass defense as good as Oklahoma's. Petty gets lazy with footwork which leads to accuracy issues and I think he is going to have to do something he has not had to do all year which is move the ball down the field without the big plays. Even against Kansas State he had 3 plays that just completely changed the game and Kansas State still had them on the ropes. Oklahoma will stay in this game by taking one out of Kansas State's game plan. Run the ball and dominate on time of possession. The Oklahoma running game that features a trio of senior running backs and a running QB should be able to move the ball. After all Baylor's run defense that has been so good has only faced one rushing offense ranked in the top 60 in the nation and that was Kansas State which is ranked 40th in yards per carry. They ran for 327 yards, and Oklahoma is better ranking 18th at 5.2 ypc. Oklahoma is also more capable of moving the ball through the air than Kansas State was and even though Blake Bell won't make the big plays he will be smart as he's got a 143 QB rating with 10 TD and 3 interceptions. Oklahoma will move the ball on Baylor's experienced front 7 especially in the second half where their size advantage will take over. In the end I think Oklahoma comes up short, but this will be a very competitive game that both teams will be up for with extra rest. The road team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 and the dog is 7-3 ATS while Oklahoma is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a bye with their last game being a 14 point win on the road earlier this season against Notre Dame. Oklahoma could and should be sitting undefeated, but they could not get up for a game against Texas, a game they were supposed to easily win. This is a game Baylor is easily supposed to win and that should only motivate Oklahoma. |
|||||||
11-05-13 | Ohio +4 v. Buffalo | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
Ohio +4 4.4* NCAAF POD
Buffalo has won 6 games in a row and those 6 teams have a combined win total of 5 not counting the FCS team they beat. Those 5 wins were either against each other or other FCS teams so it's safe to say that Buffalo has literally beaten nobody. Ohio's resume is nothing to get excited about either, but at least they beat North Texas and Marshall. Ohio has a balanced offense with an experienced QB in Tyler Tettleton who has a 165 QB rating and he will be the difference because this is the first time in conference play that Buffalo's defense will face a balanced attack. Ohio had a melt down against Central Michigan and still almost hung on. Buffalo relies on their pass rush to force turnovers but Ohio's ranked 8th in fewest sack % at 2.56%. That means that Tettleton should have the time he needs to make decisions to win this game and movet he chains as Ohio is converting 51% of their third downs in conference play. Buffalo is only converting 36%. Ohio's red zone is also good enough to create a major advantage as they've held 4 conference opponents to 46% on just 13 attempts. Joe Licata is only a sophomore starting at QB and he's been good, but a 139 QB rating and facign an Ohio pass rush that's ranked 4th in sack % and ranked 7th with a 10.53 sack % on the road. I think the weak schedule finally catches up to this Buffalo team as Ohio pulls the game out. |
|||||||
11-02-13 | Oklahoma State -1 v. Texas Tech | 52-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 44 m | Show | |
[b]Oklahoma State -1.5 4.4* play[/b]
Texas Tech is ranked 15th while Oklahoma State is ranked 18th and the Red Raiders are at home yet they have moved from a 1 point favorite to a 1.5 point under dog. We have seen this move in the past by Vegas and it usually ends up in a bad way for the home team. Tech just came off an emotional loss at Oklahoma where they played better than I think most people think, but getting up like that for a second game in a row is going to be hard. While Oklahoma State has one blemish on their schedule which was a loss to West Virginia on the road. So wait a minute Tech beat West Virginia by 10 on the road, why are they under dogs in their own building? Tech has yet to beat a team that will end up in a bowl unless West Virginia or TCU make a run. Oklahoma State just has much more balance with the passing game and now at running back as they found the 6-2 Desmond Roland who has size and speed. Roland will take this game over after a week where he had 26 carries for 219 yards. It's much harder to stop an offense that can beat you with the pass and the run. Tech can not do that. They are 4th passing the ball 64% of the time while Oklahoma State is great against the pass holding opponents to 9 passing TD's and 13 interceptions. They are 7th in pass efficiency defense and have a better shot at getting off the field on third down and holding Texas Tech to FG's instead of TD's. Last but not least this game is going to be decided by turnovers. Oklahoma State always seems to have a knack for turning teams over as they are +9 in TO margin while Texas Tech is -6. |
|||||||
11-02-13 | Auburn v. Arkansas +8 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 60 m | Show |
Arkansas +8 5.5* NCAAF POD / Arkansas +265 1* bonus
Literally nobody believes in Arkansas right now after they were out scored 134-17 in their last three games. All three came against the 3 best defenses in SEC, but now Arkansas comes off the bye playing a team that has just too much confidence after beating Texas A&M on the road and improving to 7-1 on the season in Auburn. Public is betting Auburn 70% of the time in this spot yet the line has been going the other way. I think there is value on Arkansas especially coming off the bye having an extra week to prepare for an Auburn team that is flawed. Auburn is one dimensional on offense and defense struggling bad to stop the pass and pass the ball. Even though Arkansas has been better running the ball I think they will find success passing on Saturday. Arkansas passing offense is not as bad as it's looked. Brandon Allen's stats look awful but he was battling a shoulder injury for most of the year but has looked better as of late. He was part of 282 yards and 3 TD's vs. A&M at home and I believe Arkansas shoudl be able to continue running the ball effectively. Auburn has had issues stopping the run at times this year and has not really faced a team that's willing to grind out a game. Arkansas had 3.83 ypc at Florida and 4.23 ypc at Alabama and should average over 5 yards per carry on Saturday. On the flip side Arkansas should load the box to stop Auburn who is more predictable running the ball 66% of the time. At least when Arkansas passes they can protect their QB allowing just 6 sacks on the year as the offensive line has played extremely well. Auburn is 66th in pass rush while Arkansas is 18th. In the end it will be Arkansas getting an early lead at home and using their pass rush with DE Chris Smith and Trey Flowers along with some blitzing from their linebackers. This is Bielema's kind of game and it falls on senior day off a bye with a team at 3-5 that is capable of going to a bowl and |
|||||||
11-02-13 | Georgia -2.5 v. Florida | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 21 m | Show | |
Georgia -2.5 4.4* Showdown
Florida is 0-3 this year against balanced offenses. The highly touted defense has not faced a balanced offense at the swamp in 2+ years so they have gotten by, but facing LSU who ranked 29th passing 35th rushing they lost, Missouri 32/19 they lost, and Miami 38/24 they lost. Now they face Georgia 25/44 and they will lose. Georgia is the better offense out of all three of those teams, and are now getting healthy again. Georgia will return Todd Gurley who can beat any run defense, and Michael Bennet at WR to offer Aaron Murray some sort of security and option. Georgia had been proving they could run it on anyone without Gurley and now with him back after the bye week it will be able to against Florida whose defense gave up a lot of rushing yards the past two weeks. Florida's offense wants to ground and pound and put the game in the hands of their defense. They lost Matt Jones, their star RB and are ranked 89th in rushing ypc and face Georgia who is ranked 31st vs. the run. Georgia can stop the run when their is a threat of a pass. Their biggest weakness is in coverage and Florida is not capable of winning that battle. Florida's QB is not good enough, he lacks weapons and the offensive line has struggled and now replacing both of their tackles. Georgia's pass defense can be decent because of their pass rush which has been solid of late and ranks 17th on the year. Florida is 110th in protecting the QB and even worse since Murphy took over as he's being sacked 13.19% of drop backs over the last 3 games. Georgia still has a shot at the SEC Championship game and I won't be shocked to see them there again facing Alabama, but it starts this week. |
|||||||
11-02-13 | Michigan v. Michigan State -4.5 | 6-29 | Win | 100 | 40 h 7 m | Show | |
Mich St -4.5 2.2* play
I got the Spartans here as their defense is legit ranked top 5 in every major statistical category. Michigan's offense is one dimensional and will rely on the run where Michigan should dominate. Michigan at some point will have to try to force the pass and that's where the Spartan defense has been a rock. Michigan turns the ball over too much with 3+ turnovers in 4 of 7 games this year. Devon Gardner's 108 QB rating on the road is not impressive compared to Michigan State's QB who is gaining confidence and has taken care of the football 12 TD to only 2 interceptions. The difference in this game is going to be the defense. Michigan State can force turnovers and have a short field Michigan can not. Michigan State had issues moving the ball early on due to WR drops and inconsistent play at RB and now it seems like they have corrected that issue and have found consistency with Langford. I see Michigan State dominating this as Mark Dantonio has since he got to Michigan State going 4-2. |
|||||||
11-02-13 | Northwestern +6 v. Nebraska | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 59 m | Show | |
Northwestern +6 4.4* Big Ten GOW
Northwestern has 4 straight losses after last weeks devastating loss to Iowa in OT. I am going with the Wildcats again this week against an over rated Nebraska team. One good thing came out of the Iowa game a week ago was that Northwestern was able to run the ball in the second half parlayed by their defense playing their best game all season. Northwestern has tremendous value here this is a team that was putting up 30+ points with ease early in the season before running into some tough defense who can stop the run. Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa are ranked 8th, 7th, and 35th in run defense and that's how Northwestern moves the ball. Northwestern also was without Cain Kolter for a game too, but he seems to be 100% after last week's game. Nebraska's run defense is not very good and rank 65th but have faced an average offense ranked 65th. They faced 1 team ranked in the top 30 in Wyoming who averaged 7.30 yards per carry against them. Minnesota ran for 271, 100 more than the Gophers ran on Northwestern. That means in my opinion Northwestern's defense is better and is more capable in this spot because Nebraska is a mess. Nebraska's defense lacks any sort of veteran leadership and it's led to poor communication bad tackling and players out of position. They even made the silly mistake of admitting that they "looked past Minnesota." This is not a focused team right now and Northwestern is better then they've shown of late and have played better vs. a tougher schedule. Northwestern came in here and played well in 2011 and I won't be shocked to see them come away with another win. |
|||||||
11-02-13 | Middle Tenn State v. UAB +3.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 38 h 45 m | Show | |
UAB +4 3.3* EARLY BIRD SPECIAL
This is a classic hang over game as MTSU just upset Marshall on the last play of the game a week ago. Their stock has risen, but I don't see how they are much better than UAB team. UAB is experienced at QB just like Middle Tenn and deep at RB. MTSU's run defense is ranked 96th and allowed both Marshal and North Texas to run at will. That should set up many third and shorts with Darin Reaves and Jordan Howard both averaging over 5 yards per carry. With Austin Brown at QB UAB always has a shot in conference games. MTSU also has a quality QB in Logan Killgore but Brown is having a better season turning the ball over 6 fewer times than Killgore. UAB has also averaged more yards per rush and are home in this game while they have had a stronger schedule facing LSU and Vanderbilt in non conference games while MTSU has played UNC and BYU. |
|||||||
11-01-13 | USC +4.5 v. Oregon State | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
USC +4 3.3* Friday Night Showdown
This is a bad match up for Oregon State following a physical pounding against Stanford which has a similar defense. Oregon State is a one dimensional offense, they only average 2.43 ypc and will rely on Sean Mannion's right arm. Last week he only completed 4.8 yards per attempts and part was due to Stanford's pass rush as they got to him 8 times. USC's pass rush is better ranked 9th compared with Stanford 27th. USC is also top 15 in yards per attempt and will attack with ends George Uko and Leonard Williams while linebackers Morgan Breslin and Devon Kennard will fly around making plays. This USC defense is legit holding Utah to 3 points and NOtre Dame 14pts the last two weeks. Oregon State's defense has been inconsistent and they can not simply load the box like Utah did a week ago, because Marqis Lee is probable and Xavier Grimble is back giving USC some serious threats in the passing game with Agholor becoming a star in Lee's absence. Oregon STate has struggled in run defense and are week up the middle. Look for USC to be able to run the ball here as Oregon STate has allowed 4.95 ypc to 5 conference opponents. Even though USC has depth issues I think they are more the complete team while Oregon State is really good at passing the ball and pass rushing they also have many weaknesses and should still be beat up from the Stanford game. |
|||||||
10-31-13 | Arizona State v. Washington State +11.5 | Top | 55-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Wash State +11.5 4.4** NCAAF POD Washington State will host high flying Arizona State after a bye week. Wash State has been killed 3 out of their last 4 games giving up 52+ in each and Arizona State comes in and naturally come in as a big favorite, but I'm taking the Cougars who are much better then they are getting credit for. Connor Holliday already has over 3,000 passing yards and 18 TD's, Interceptions have been a problem, but Arizona State's defense should be in for quite a struggle. They have not played an offense that passes this much all season and the closest to that was Notre Dame who beat the Sun Devils. The pass defense has been decent, but not nearly as good on the road and this is only Arizona State's 2nd true road game with the Notre Dame game being on neutral field. Taylor Kelly has a QB rating that's 20 points lower in his two games away from home and last year he had a rating that was 43 points lower on the road. The ASU pass defense also 30 points higher on the road this year. Arizona State won 46-7 last year at home, but they have not won a game in the pacific north west since 2008. It's 40 degrees with a 20% chance of rain tonight and it will be hard for them to win by two TD's with Washington State's offense really starting to click. The main difference for Wash State has been their offensive line that's bigger and stronger and more experienced. Add in 2 weeks to prepare for a defense that has played well at times this year and I think 11.5 points offers tremendous value.
|
|||||||
10-31-13 | Louisiana Monroe +3.5 v. Troy | 49-37 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
[b]LA Monroe +3.5 3.3* Showdown[/b]
I'm going with LA Monroe in this spot tonight they fully dominated Troy last year and return 17 starters. They are finally getting healthy and are the more capable team when it comes to stopping a passing game. They limited Troy's QB Corey Robinson to 19/34 0 TD and 2 INT's last year and a lot of it is because he's not a mobile QB which makes it much easier to defend. On the flip side LA Monroe has a mobile QB in Kolton Browning who returned last Saturday and was great last year 23/31 275 3TD and 0 INT's. LA Monroe needs to win some games and had a challenging schedule early playing Oklahoma, Baylor and Wake Forest so their strength of schedule is obviously much tougher than Troy's scheduling of Miss State and Duke. Both teams are top 30 in passing play % so it's going to come down to both QB's and who can make more plays. For Troy they go up against a team that's ranked 29th in opposing QB rating with 118 and limited their last 3 opponents to a 94.2 and are 9th in opposing QB rating. Meanwhile Troy is ranked 114th. Troy is also 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games while LA Monroe is 9-3 ATS int heir last 12 road games. |
|||||||
10-30-13 | Cincinnati v. Memphis +3 | Top | 34-21 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
Memphis +3 -115 5* NCAAF POD
Nearly 70% of the public are on the Cinci Bearcats yet the spread is dropping. I've bet on this Memphis team before and they are much better than their 1-5 record indicates and should win this game. Both teams have top defenses which we will get into more in a second, but Cinci who is ranked 7th in total defense has faced the following offensive teams ranked 121st, 117th, 123rd, 76th, 83rd and 124th. They may have had the easiest schedule to date when you look at the offenses they have faced. Memphis on the other hand ranked 13th has faced 64th, 24th, 45th, 71st, 97th, and 16th ranked offenses. Memphis defense is legit they are 12th in yards per play, 8th in run defense allowing just 3.1 ypc which will be key against a Cinci rushing offense that is hit or miss, and 23rd in opposing QB rating. They held Houston to 247 yards which was 228 yards less than their season average. That's the same Houston that just went on the road and beat up on Rutgers who was coming off a bye and the same Houston that took BYU to the wire and put up 40+ points on a top 25 defense. They also held UCF to 274 yards which was 161 yards under their total. UCF also already beat the AAC's best team and did so on the road beating Louisville on a Friday night. Memphis should have beaten both Houston and UCF, but costly turnovers and inability to put it in the end zone were the reasons why they did not. Memphis luckily plays a team that turns the ball over just as much as them. Cinci is 110th with 2.5 turnovers per game on the year. Those are elite teams and Cincinnati just is not and they've been bad on the road. They barely got by Miami Ohio 14-0 which is the worst team in FBS. They lost to a bad South Florida team as a 10.5 point favorite and they lost at Illinois 17-45 as a -7.5 favorite. It's not like Illinois is turning the corner either as they lost 44-3 this past weekend to Michigan State. The good news is we have value on our side because people have some what forgot about how bad Cinci has looked this year because they are off back to back wins against Uconn and Temple two more bad teams. It helps that Memphis record is 1-5 and Vegas knows they can collect big time by putting a low point spread as every average joe will come playing on Cinci. The spread only dropped because sharp money is on Memphis and Vegas wants more money on Cinci because they gamble too and feel they have an advantage with Memphis and perception that Cinci is the better team. |
|||||||
10-26-13 | Fresno State v. San Diego State +7.5 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
San Diego State +7.5 Fresno State is getting all the hype and many "media experts" are calling for the 13-0 season already. This team has not been tested on the road this year with games at Idaho and Hawaii. Fresno has had struggles in the past on the road and having to play a good San Diego State team is going to be a challenge. Throw in San Diego State having 9 extra days to prepare and they will be ripe for the upset as they are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 following a bye. This is a San Diego State team that led Oregon State 27-14 in the third quarter at home. Sean Mannion won the game, but it's proof that San Diego State can beat a high flying passing offense on their own turf or should I say grass. They are one of the few teams that still play on natural grass at the SD Chargers stadium. Fresno is 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games on grass.
|
|||||||
10-26-13 | Arizona v. Colorado +14 | 44-20 | Loss | -120 | 43 h 13 m | Show | |
Colorado +13.5 4.4* bonus[/b]
There is all kinds of value here on Colorado returning home in PAC 12 play still searching for their first competitive game in PAC 12 play never mind win. They have played arguably the three best teams in the PAC 12 in Oregon, Arizona State and Oregon State. Arizona comes into this game flying high after their win over Utah at home, but that was to be expected as Utah was on a hang over after upsetting Stanford. Utah still gave Arizona a run for their money. Colorado is not as bad as they've shown they have some talented offensive players a deep group of running backs and an elite receiver in Paul Richardson that will be enough to push Arizona in this game. Colorado's defense has been decent at times holding opponents to 34% on third down and 60% on red zone TD's. Arizona is allowing 83% of possessions in the red zone to turn into TD's so Colorado should be able to score points here as Arizona is 0-2 on the road in the Pac 12 allowing 30+ in both games including 38 to a very bad USC offense. Arizona has benefited from an easy schedule and while this game is still easy you bet Colorado circled this game with an FCS match up last week they were preparing for this game and should be more fresh than Arizona. Colorado can win this game and have a chance at going bowling so I expect them to be all in. Arizona is not as good offensively as they were a year ago. They are far too one dimensional even if Ka'Deem Carey is a top tier running back Colorado has not been that bad vs. the run allowing 4.14 ypc. They allowed 5.63 to Oregon and 4.76 to Arizona State who both have a passing threat while Arizona does not. BJ Denker is only completing 55% of his passes for 6 yards per attempt. Arizona was actually lucky in their last game that Tyler Wilson got hurt early and threw two picks early that changed the game completely otherwise they probably would have lost. |
|||||||
10-26-13 | Texas +2.5 v. TCU | Top | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 43 h 44 m | Show |
Texas +2 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
Mack Brown said, "it's good we have an extra week off because the team definitely enjoyed the win over Oklahoma past the 48 hour rule." Which is to be expected as the red river rivalry is the biggest rivalry game in college football. TCU unfortunately had to play Oklahoma State last week. The Cowboys were also on an extra week of prep and were just fresher off a bye week in the win over TCU. TCU will have their hands full yet again with a Texas team that's gaining confidence and have their eyes on a Big 12 title which they are certainly in the mix for. TCU gets Casey Pachall back after he broke his arm to start the season, but it's unknown how much he'll play but even if he does I don't see him being effective. This is the worst offense that Texas has faced all year as TCU is ranked 110th in total yards, they have a zero dimensional offense averaging less than 4 yards per carry, with a 112 QB rating, 29% third down conversions and 56% TD % in the red zone. Texas' defense has struggled at times, but they have definitely righted the ship. They have a ton of talent and with an extra week to prepare against an offense going nowhere, I believe they should dominate. Offensively TCU has been great, but have shown some weaknesses in pass defense deep. Texas will throw some deep passes to loosen up TCU a bit here and Texas is far more capable of running the ball with the deepest stable of running backs in the country. TCU faced two teams that could run and did so against them. Oklahoma and LSU and Texas ranks in between the two in yards per carry. Texas also has revenge on their minds after losing 20-13 on Thanksgiving last year and would love to get the win to move to 4-0 in the Big 12. Power and toughness is what Texas defense struggles against and that's not TCU which relies on defense and forcing turnovers to win games. Texas is +6 in turnover margin and McCoy is taking care of the ball as Texas has just 7 turnovers on the year. |
|||||||
10-26-13 | South Carolina +3 v. Missouri | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
South Carolina +3 4.4* SEC GOW
Missouri mine as well be under dogs in this game against South Carolina. The line moved to 2.5 at some books with all the public on Missouri after South Carolina choked at Tennessee. Missouri is getting the credit, but really they beat teams at the right time. They faced Florida without their QB and they did it at home, and they beat a beat up Georgia team on the road. South Carolina seriously just has the right balance that Missouri has not faced this year. Missouri has not faced one balanced offense other than Georgia (which didn't have their two starting RB's). South Carolina is 15th in QB rating, and 17th in yards per rush attempt. Dylan Thompson is more then capable of taking the reigns from Connor Shaw. Thompson led the Gamecocks to a big win over Clemson last year and had 10 TD's to 2 interceptions on the season a year ago so he's been in this spot before. He's always been better when he knows he has to start and has a week of practice under his belt which he has this week. Just like Missouri has not faced a balanced offense they have not faced a defense that is top 50 that also is good in offense. Even facing Florida ranked 4th in total defense they put up big numbers. Mainly because Florida could not sustain drives and Florida has a weakness on defense, their pass rush is ranked 80th while South Carolina is ranked 27th. South Carolina is also 18th in total defense to go along with their top 25 offense. This is hands down the best team Missouri has faced and I'm betting on Dylan Thompson and against Matty Mauk this week after being on Missouri in consecutive weeks. Kansas St -5.5/Texas +8.5 2.75* teaser My Texas reasons are well documented in my NCAAF POD. Kansas State also has an extra week to prepare for this game and should dominate West Virginia up front. Daniel Sams is a different runner than Colin Klein was, but he's capable of carrying this team as he almost did in a shocking win over Baylor as they led in the 3rd quarter. Kansas State will get back their two top WR's in this game in Locket and Thompson which should open up the offense even more. West Virginia is not a team that travels well and gave up 70 to Baylor so I expect Kansas State to control the clock and play defense like they always do. |
|||||||
10-26-13 | Vanderbilt v. Texas A&M -17 | 24-56 | Win | 100 | 35 h 29 m | Show | |
Texas A&M -17 3.3* bonus[/b]
Vanderbilt just came off a huge emotional win against a crippled Georgia team and is getting more respect than they deserve. Meanwhile A&M comes off another tough loss against Auburn. A&M has value for the first time in a while even at -17 points, because they can actually have success on defense for the first time all season as Vanderbilt will start a freshmen QB for the first time and he has to do it in a hostile environment on the road without a ton of talent. Patton Robinette is not going to have success particularly in the red zone and I'm sure he will have a few three and out as the defense will certainly play a lot of man in this game and stack the box to stop the run. Vanderbilt's defense dominated Georgia, but that was bound to happen to Georgia with all the injuries they have had. Aaron Murray has never been a good road QB either, but now they have to face a balanced offense that can beat you with the run and the pass. The only other balanced offense Vanderbilt's defense faced was Missouri and they put up 51 points in their own building. A&M is mad about last week's loss and should hang up 50+ on Vanderbilt and I don't see Vanderbilt cracking 20 let alone 30. |
|||||||
10-26-13 | Northwestern +4 v. Iowa | 10-17 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
Northwestern +4 4.4* EB play[/b]
Northwestern would have been favorites in this game a few weeks ago, but after the emotional loss against Ohio State, a game they could have easily had they had to go face Wisconsin who in my opinion is better than Ohio State. Last week was a clunker against Minnesota without their star offensive player Kain Colter who will return this week to make a huge impact against Iowa a team he's own in the past. Pat Fitzgerald is a good coach and this is a desperate Northwestern team that is better than it looked the last two weeks. I think we get tremendous value here and Iowa never runs any team out of the building. Iowa has struggled to stop the run against good running teams and Northwestern still fits that bill. Northwestern should have success running on the edge where Iowa has issues containing. Iowa will be without their defensive leader in DE 5th year senior Dominic Alvis. Look for Fitzgerald to take shots in the passing game to loosen up the the run defense and that will be the difference. Iowa's passing game just is not there despite Jake Rudock showing flashes at times he's still only completing 59% of his passes for 11 TD's and 7 interceptions. Northwestern's pass defense is a strength and they are ball hawking with 13 interceptions already. Their weakness is getting beat deep, but Iowa's offense really does not possess the big play ability. Iowa just got done playing Ohio State, and it's really hard to get up for a game after you play Ohio State that just keeps winning. |
|||||||
10-25-13 | Boise State +7 v. BYU | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Boise State +7 -102 4.5* NCAAF POD
These two teams meeting tonight are really similar in a lot of ways. The only thing separating the two is who is home, and the fact that Boise has to break in a new QB after Southwick broke his ankle last week vs. Nevada. Last year it was Boise winning 7-6, and I see more of the same this year. First of all let me introduce you to Grant Hedrick, the Oregon transfer has more mobile than Southwick (15 carries 192 yards), and will add to Boise's running game. He does not have the arm that Southwick has but he's extremely accurate and he'll give Boise balance that will be tough to defend on Friday night as he has completed 81% of his 37 passing attempts. Boise also is better at protecting their QB ranked 41st in pass protection while BYU is 93rd in sack %. Even with Van Noy roaming BYU has not been able to get a consistent pass rush and they have given up big rushing games in 2 of their last 3 games. Boise's defense meanwhile is ranked 20th in sack% while BYU struggles at times to protect Taysom Hill who has been sacked 8.49% of his drop backs ranking 107th. Hill and BYU's offense is entirely one dimensional and he often makes mistakes that costs his team and I predict it will happen tonight. He's only completing 50% of his passes and has 8 interceptions on the year. Boise State just got done containing Nevada's Cody Fajaro who is of similar talent. Fajara is not quite the runner, but Boise shut him down 17 carries for 12 yards and Fajara actually is a threat to pass completing 70% of his passes. Boise should be able to dominate on defense and I believe the surprise element of Hendrick gives us value that we wouldn't have had with Southwick behind center. |
|||||||
10-24-13 | Kentucky +11 v. Mississippi State | Top | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Kentucky +11 4.4* NCAAF POD; Kentucky +375 1* Nobody wants to go an entire season without a win in their conference especially in the SEC. This may be the most winnable game for Kentucky who is on 12 days rest to prepare to win the one game they have the best shot at. They are 11 point under dogs mainly due to the fact that they have gone 1-5 while Miss State is 3-3. Kentucky's stats are not good, but having to play 4 straight top 20 opponents will make anyone's stats weaker than they actually are. Kentucky had to play Louisville, Florida, South Carolina and most recently Alabama losing 49-7 which set us up well on this spread. Kentucky actually hung in there against Louisville, Florida and South Carolina and I think they will have an opportunity to win against Miss State team that has not been great this year. If Jalen Whitlow was 100% at QB I would probably make this a maximum play. When you look at both teams they are actually rather pretty similar. Both rely to run the ball first and have a two QB system while both defense has struggled to stop the run. I'm not so sure that Kentucky isn't better at both. Their strength of schedule has been brutal compared with Miss State that barely hung on vs. a MAC team in Bowling Green at home. Kentucky has clearly made progress under Stoops although the results do not show it so the public is backing Miss State big and giving us value on the line. I'm not throwing many stats out here because the SOS is just not comparable with Miss State playing LSU and a subpar Okl State team and a decent but over rated Auburn team. It's still worth mentioning that Miss State's defense is allowing 70% touchdowns in the red zone and Kentucky has more of a balanced offense then Miss State does and Kentucky has turned the ball over only 6 times this year. Either way this game should be close and there is a ton of value on Kentucky pulling the upset.
|
|||||||
10-22-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette -2.5 v. Arkansas State | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
[b]Lafayette -2 3.3* play[/b]
This very well could be the Sun Belt championship here. Arkansas State will make its first appearance on Tuesday night while Lafayette went on the road to beat what I think is a better Western Kentucky team than Arkansas State to continue their trend of going 21-8 ATS int heir last 29 road games. The Rajin Cajuns are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 to Arkansas State, but they are the only Sun Belt team they have not beaten the previous two years. However, they won't have to face Ryan Aplin anymore, and their turnover issues which cost them the game last year (-5 in the 50-27 loss) have not been an issue as they are +9 on the season. Lafayette will runt he ball nearly 60% of the time and they gained 254 yards rushing on Western Kentucky, a run defense that had been playing well. Arkansas State's run defense is one of the worst ranked 117th in yards per carry and is even worse when they are facing a dual threat offense. Terrence Broadway is one of the best mid major QB's in the country and is a dual threat QB backed by a running game with Alonzo Harris having a solid season. Meanwhile Arkansas State thought they had a stud in David Oku, but he's struggling with just 3.92 ypc. Lafayette was able to stop a better rushing attack in Western Kentucky last week and they should have an easier time with Oku than they hand with Antonio Andrews who is a stud. At the end of the day I'm betting on the better QB with the better running game with the better defense. I'm also betting on a team with a better 3rd down offense and defense and a better red zone offense and defense. Lafayette is also +9 in turnover margin while Arkansas State is +2. It's a small favorite to lay and my formulas love Lafayette as well |
|||||||
10-19-13 | Washington State +39.5 v. Oregon | Top | 38-62 | Win | 100 | 46 h 44 m | Show |
[b]Washington State +39 5.5* NCAAF POD[/b]
I look at this game as a buy/sell situational game. Washington State's loss against Oregon State at home was not nearly as bad as the final score indicated and Oregon's road win against Washington was not nearly as dominating. Yet 70% of the betting public is taking Oregon at this high number. Washington State turned the ball over 6 times late in that game against Oregon State otherwise that game was a game, but allowing 52 points to Oregon State makes this spread about a TD higher than it would have been. I think we are getting value when you look at California being +38.5 here and losing by a half a point. Washington State actually went on the road as -1.5 favorite and beat California by 3 TD's. Oregon also clearly looking ahead in this spot when you you look they have UCLA and Stanford up next and both hold the keys to their season. Washington state put up 26 and 28 points the last two years and this offense has clearly improved in its second year with Mike Leach as Halliday has improved his completion % by 11% compared to last year. The offensive line has a lot to do with is ranked 17th in sack % compared to last year being among the worst. Washington State can stay in this game as they pass the ball more than anyone else in the league and are good at it. Oregon's pass rush is not as good as a year ago and they have yet to face a team that can pass the ball like this which is ranked 8th in the nation. Washington's defense is nothing to sneeze at either and was extremely young last year yet they only trailed Oregon 23-19 at the half. I expect Washington State to be in this game and getting nearly 6 TD's to play with is even better. The defense has a bigger and stronger and more athletic front 4 than Washington and the secondary has allowed 9 TD's and 11 interceptions so they are not as bad as what many are thinking, but Vegas is squeezing more and more money out of the public, but I wont' fall for it. |
|||||||
10-19-13 | Florida State v. Clemson +3 | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 12 m | Show | |
[b]Clemson +3 4.4* ACC GOW[/b]
Clemson vs. Florida State is easily the game of the week. Many look at this game and think it's fishy that Clemson is the higher rank and they are under dogs at home. I look at it as the oddsmakers are forever not taking Clemson seriously because they've come up small in this situation so many times, but I think this year is different and we saw signs of it at the end of last year with a huge upset of LSU in their bowl game. Tahj Boyd is the difference and I'll take a senior QB at home over a rookie QB on the road any day even though Winston is a once in a lifetime QB he just has too much confidence right now and is about to get pressured big time. Clemson has the 4th best sack % led by Vic Beasley and is #1 in third down defense because of it. That's going to be the difference despite Florida State being led by a veteran offensive line. FSU still has allowed 9.68 sack% this year on the road and allowed 8.15% last year. Winston was able to get away with it against BC and Maryland on the road who brings extra guys to get their sacks, but now he will see a different look when he's pressured, because Clemson only brings 4 guys and leaves more in coverage. I'm thinking Winston will make the mistake as Clemson is +9 in turnover margin with 15 forced. They are also penalized less and their offense will confuse a Florida State defense that allowed 34 points to Boston College. Clemson is an elite offense and they will create a ton of deception before the snap with a lot of movement. It really will confuse FSU and set Boyd up in great situations. Clemson already has been tested in a season changing game to open the season and won and they will do it again as they have beaten Florida State at home 5 straight times (3 as under dogs) |
|||||||
10-19-13 | USC +3 v. Notre Dame | 10-14 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 11 m | Show | |
USC +3 3.3* play[/b]
Notre Dame off their bye off a big week and USC is on extra rest here too after a coaching change seemed to be just what they needed. I'll say this about USC they seem to just be pretty good at just about everything. Yes they have shown weaknesses in the secondary in their last two games, but they get back Anthony Brown who is their vocal leader in the secondary for the last two years and will help a secondary that despite recent struggles are 28th in yds/att, 47th in completion %, 41st in opposing QB rating, helped by a great pass rush ranked 19th. Tommy Rees struggles vs. good defenses is well documented and Rees does not have a solid running game to hide it. Notre Dame's running game did show some live, but USC is great at stopping the run ranked 15th in rushing defense. That should set up a lot of third and longs and Rees is only completing 51% of his passes overall. It's obvious this game is important to USC who has not lost on the road to Notre Dame since 2001. They rested several players that probably could have played last Thursday so they'd be healthy for this game, none bigger than Marqis Lee. This receiving corps will give Notre Dame's secondary a ton of issues. USC also can run the ball too with a healthy Silas Redd returning last week. At the end of the day I'm fading Rees who is the guy that has to make the plays for Notre Dame to win. |
|||||||
10-19-13 | Florida v. Missouri +3 | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 36 h 58 m | Show | |
Missouri +3 3.3* play[/b]
This spread is a combination of MIssouri not getting credit for their road win over Georgia, because of Georgia's injuries and the loss of their senior QB James Franklin. For the first reason I would say what has Florida done to be a road favorite against anyone? Florida suffered yet another injury as they lost their RB Matt Jones. Missouri did suffer a big loss with James Franklin going out, but Maty Mauk almost beat him out before the season. Mauk is a tremendous athlete a two time Ohio high school player of the year and a track star. Sure Florida's offense is elite, but they have not seen an offense like this with a running QB and big physical receivers. LSU has a great offense and is probably better than Missouri's offense, but right now MIssouri's defense is better than LSU's defense in my opinion just look at what they did against Georgia on the road compared with LSU. Florida has no business being favorites in this game as Missouri held this team to 276 yards last year and ironically it was Franklin who cost them the 14-7 loss on the road as 17.5 point under dogs as he threw 4 interceptions. Florida does not have the offensive balance and Missouri's defensive line is ripping up the backfield setting opponents up in 3rd and long. It will be the defense that carries Missouri to a win. They are leading the SEC in turnover margin and have a turnover in 36 straight games. They are also only allowing just 36% TD's in the red zone at home. This is the furthest north Florida has traveled since 1991 and they are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 vs. a winning team. |
|||||||
10-18-13 | Central Florida +14.5 v. Louisville | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
[b]UCF +14.5 4.4* NCAAF POD[/b]
By now it's obvious that Central Florida has clearly had the more challenging schedule early on beating Penn State in Happy Valley and almost beating South Carolina at home. Louisville is the real deal, but we have seen them struggle in two games this year. The first against Kentucky where they allowed them to run for 5.23 yards per carry and watching that game you could see Kentucky was right in that game, but they lost their QB and turned the ball over 3 times. Against Rutgers they struggled too, but Rutgers handed them the win with 4 turnovers and now they face a Central Florida team that is +7 in turnover margin and have only lost the ball 5 times all year. Central Florida has extra time to prepare for this game and it's every bit as big of a game for them to make a statement. The players and coaches have been staying quiet giving Louisville all the praise, but deep down I know they want to come out and make a state on Friday night so they can get some national respect themselves and have the lead on the BCS spot that the AAC is still entitled to. Central Florida is the best defense Louisville has faced all year and the best offense as they are perfectly balanced on both sides of the ball. They can run the ball, they cans top the run, they can pass the ball and they can stop the pass. All of Louisville's opponents had at least two flaws if not 3 or 4. The schedule has been terrible just take a look at the pass defenses they've faced 108th, 120th, 105th, 104th, and 92nd. Central Florida is ranked top 50 in many of the major pass defensive categories. Louisville's defense which has been so good has faced only one team in the top 75 in yards per carry average and only 1 team that can pass, but never a team that could do both efficiently and that's Central Florida. So why 14.5 points? Friday night lights, home, Terry Bridgewater and Central Florida coming off a near loss vs. Memphis, but I think Memphis defense is for real and better than people are giving credit. Also I felt Central Florida was a bit hung over from their loss vs. South Carolina in a game that they absolutely had. People keep pointing to Louisville's big win last year in the bowl game, but I still think Florida had absolutely no interest in that game. |
|||||||
10-17-13 | Miami (Florida) v. North Carolina +10 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show | |
North Carolina +10 -115 4* Showdown
Miami being ranked #10 is a joke right now in my opinion and it will show tonight. North Carolina has been so bad this season as well, but they are not as bad as they have looked on offense while Miami is not as good as they looked which means I think we have some value here especially after the public pushed this line up to 10 in some spots. Both teams come off the bye and North Carolina is saying all the right things. I think Miami's defense has not been tested by a passing game all year because they have not faced a capable attack, but are about to tonight. Larry Fedora will run an up tempo offense mixing in two QB's with Bryan Renner getting 75% of the snaps or more. Renner can make all the throws and the Tarheels have plenty of receiving threats. Miami's defense gave up a lot of points to some bad teams like South Florida who scored 21 points on them. North Carolina always seems to get up for these type of games and with a top 10 team coming into their house for a Thursday night and they have had 2 weeks to prepare... Well I think North Carolina will put themselves in position to steal this game which they desperately need. If Miami did not have an extra week too and a big opponent up next I would be taking the money line on this game. |
|||||||
10-15-13 | Louisiana-Lafayette +4.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
LA Laffayette +4.5 3.3* Sun Belt GOW
This will be the first time Western Kentucky's defense faces a dual threat QB as they were lucky enough to miss Kolt Browning who had an injury last week. Terrance Broadway is a dual threat QB who had 145 yards rushing against the Hilltoppers a year ago on just 14 carries. He is paired with a couple of good running backs in Alonzo Harris and Elijah Mcguire who are both averaging well over 5 yards per carry. Broadway also has a 158 QB rating as he's averaging 8.8 yards per attempts and has 10 TD's to 4 interceptions. This is every bit of a balanced offense, but it relies on the running game first and that's where they can have success against Western Kentucky. Western Kentucky is 86th allowing 4.7 ypc and they've only played traditional running attacks. If there is no threat of a pass they can absolutely stop the run and have done so this year, but add in a mobile QB that can also pass and I think the Rajin Cajuns will be able to move the ball fine and score some points. They are converting 72% of their red zone opportunities into TD's and 48% of their third downs both numbers are better than Western Kentucky's offense. Western Kentucky should have it's success too. Lafayette has allowed too many passing yards, but I view the Hilltoppers as a one dimensional offense that doesn't know it yet. They came off a ton of passing yards in their last game and broke a record as Brandon Doughy was 24-36 for 370 yards 2 TD's and 1 interception against LA Monroe. Doughty has been really inconsistent and already has 10 interceptions on the season to go with just 7 TD's. The Hilltoppers are -9 in turnover margin while Lafayette is +6. Lafayette also is very disciplined averaging just 3.7 penalties per game on the road compared to Western Kentucky who is nearly at 7. I just think 4.5 points is far too many for a balanced offense facing a defense that struggles to stop the run. Western Kentucky will move the ball fine, but Lafayette's defense is very good in the red zone only allowing 50% TD's and their biggest weakness which has been special teams coverage will not haunt them tonight as Western Kentucky has one of the worst return games in the country. |