Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-22 | Washington -2.5 v. UCLA | 32-40 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Washington -2.5 -120 2.5% play I like the Huskies here, as Kalen Deboer seems like the real deal as a Head Coach and he took his Fresno State to the Rose Bowl just last year and they upset UCLA 40-37 as an 11 point dog and UCLA has 2 weeks to prepare. His team is getting much more respect this year and I expec to see some more back and forth but I like Deboer to get the win when you consider Fresno won that game despite turning the ball over 3x. Michael Penix has been amazing, and UCLA over the last 3 years against a top 50 passing offense is just 3-6. UCLA also 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 vs. a team with winnign record. UCLA's offense is going to be a challenge, but 58% of the offense travels through 2 guys - DTR and Charbonet. I just don't see how you can back UCLA here when their secondary struggled with Colorado's passing attack, and nearly got upset at home by South Alabama. UCLA has no home field advantage, and Deboer's offense had 550+ yards on this UCLA defense a year ago. Now Penix and a trio of receivers should be able to get that here. |
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09-30-22 | UTSA -4 v. Middle Tennessee State | 45-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
UTSA -4 2.2% PLAY Middle Tennessee was the 6th team to pull an outright upset as 18+ underdog last week as they shocked Miami for their biggest win in program history. Those teas are 0-5 ATS the next week and they aren't just not covering spreads they are not doing so by double digits. I'm not surprised by Miami after that loss at Texas AM when their coach decided to kick field goals the entire team showing no confidence in his team, and the players may have already quit on Cristabal. MTSU is not a good team in my opinion this is the same team that put up 120 yards on James Madison. UTSA is sort of flying under the radar here at 2-2, but they've played by far the tougher schedule wiht thier opponent YPP differential at +0.83 compared to MTSU who is -0.36. Houston, Army, Texas is not an easy schedule. Frank Harris should be able to move the ball here, and UTSA's defense has struggled 93rd in YPP, but they've faced an average opponent ypp offense ranked 33rd. Here they go up against MTSU who ranks 96th, and ranks 122nd in epa run offense, and 73rd in epa pass defense and that comes against an average opponent ranking 90th in epa pass defense. Major let down spot here for MTSU on a short week. UTSA roles big and their defense shows some improvement. |
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09-24-22 | Kansas State +14 v. Oklahoma | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 2 h 45 m | Show | |
Kansas State +14 1% play |
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09-24-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Purdue -16.5 | 26-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
Purdue -16.5 2.2% play Purdue was my POD last week at Syracuse, and we clearly were on the right side as Purdue outgained the Orange 485-306, and had an 80% post game win expectancy, but unfortunately we lost on a 30 yard pass play as Purdue played zero coverage for some odd reason. I think Purdue bounces back against a poorly coached FAU team. FAU is known for running it up against bad teams, and struggling against good teams, particularly against solid defenses. FAU agaisnt a top 60 ypp defense under Taggart as their head coach has gone 2-9 and have averaged only 13.4 ppg. Purdue is 53rd and 36th vs. the run, and I don’t see this FAU passing offense being able to take advantage of some of Purdue’s weaknesses in the secondary especially on the road. On the flip side Purdue’s offense is going up agaisnt FAU’s 104th ranked defense, which I s111th vs. the pass. All in all it’s just a very bad match up for FAU, and Purdue is clearly hungry for a win after starting 1-2. I think we are getting a very nice number from 20 down to 16.5 because of Aidan O’connel is questionable. O’Connel a realtively big name, but not worth this many points to the spread, and he may still start. If he doesn’t then I see this team rallying for a big blowout win. Austin Burton, the UCLA transfer is fully capable of running this offense and will give Purdue offense more in the running game. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas +2 v. Texas A&M | Top | 21-23 | Push | 0 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
Arkansas +2 5.5% NCAAF POD Just off the top I think we are seeing some value here with Arkansas following their near upset to Missouri State, but they were resting a lot of guys for this upcoming game at Cowboys Stadium, but also Bobby Petrino returned as Missouri State’s head coach so thought there was max motivation for them in that game. Max Johnson took over at QB for A&M after the loss to App State and it was supposed to spark the offense, but despite their 17-9 win it did not spark the offense as Johnson was just 10-20 for 140 yards. It got us a win and a cover, but I felt like we were very fortunate to cover with A&M last week. Arkansas and Barry Odom prepared for Max Johnson last year when he was at LSU, which led to him being benched in the game so I think that helps here, and I don’t think A&M’s offense is able to take advantage of the clear weakness of Arkansas defense, which is their secondary. A&M ranks 113th in epa pass offense and that has come against some suspect passing defense ranked 77th on average in epa pass defense. A&M needs to run the ball to win games, and Arkansas thus far has been a rock against the run ranking 11th in ypc allowed, and they have been able to get to the QB ranking #1 in sacks. A&M’s defense has been great and that will be a challenge for Arkansas, but I like Arkansas offensive line here that is very experienced and grading out as a top 5 unit overall. Aggies are talented with 5 star guys across the board, but they have just two upper classmen on their 3 deep on the DL and 8 of the 12 are freshman. Texas A&M also has struggled on defense when they have had to face a team that can beat you throwing the ball and passing the ball, and Arkansas ranks top 30 in both categories, but since Jimbo Fisher has come aboard they are just 1-9 vs. teams who are top 50 in rushing ypc and QB rating. At this point are we really sure Jimbo is a good football coach worth all that money? A&M also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 in September. |
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09-24-22 | Oregon v. Washington State +7 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
Washington State +7 2.2% play Good Bo, bad Bo. We are fading bad Bo Nix on the road where he has 6-11 record 16TD/16INT. Last week we backed Oregon as a small favorite and they upset BYU who was ranked and BO moved to 16-4 at home 30TD/2INT. This is a game on the road at Washington ST, not an easy place to play, and Washington State’s defense should keep this one close. They return 8 startesr with 4+ years of experience, and I can’t see this Oregon team getting separation against a decent team on the road. Washington State upset Wisconsin in week 2 and had an easy game last week against Colorado State which gave them an opportunity to prepare for this game against Oregon. |
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09-24-22 | Florida +10.5 v. Tennessee | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 40 h 38 m | Show | |
Florida +10.5 2.2% play Tennessee has never been a favorite by more than 7 points agaisnt Florida, and this surely puts a lot of pressure on this Tennessee team that I still have a lot of questions about. This is a nice spot to back the Gators after back to back strugles, and I think we are at least getting a field goal of value here for Florida’s struggles vs. South Florida last week, which was the ultimate flat spot as they opened the season agaisnt two top 25 teams, and had Tennessee on deck. However, I trust Billy Napier, as he’s 11-3-1 ATS as a dog, 8-3-1 ATS on the road, and I still think Florida has an advantage in this game, and it’s their running game. Tennessee has struggled mightly vs. mobile QB’s,a dn despite ranking 19th in the young season they have played an average opponent ranking 96th in rushing ypc, and here they’ll face Florida who ranks 4th, and 12th in epa rush offense. Tennessee to mobile QB’s last year went 1-2 giving up 195 yards to Matt Corral, 47 and 2 TD to Will Levis in a 3 point win, and 144 to Florida’s Emory Jones. I look for Anthony Richardson to shine, but he doesn’t have to do it himself Montrell Johnson, and Trevor Etiene have looked the part early, and I think Florida will be able to run the ball here, which should keep this game close. Tennessee’s offense has been great, but this is an obvious step up in competition, and while they are a run first team they do have to go against a good pass defense in Florida and I expect Florida to come up with some stops. This is just too big of a line move and too much value here on Florida for me to pass up given their dominance in this series, and Tennessee’s struggles stopping mobile QB’s. |
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09-24-22 | Notre Dame +2 v. North Carolina | 45-32 | Win | 100 | 40 h 37 m | Show | |
Notre Dame +2 3.3% play Buy low spot here for Notre Dame going up against a 3-0 North Carolina team, and 70% of the tickets are on North Carolina, but I’m not buying the hype. North Carolina’s win against App State certainly looks better, and their nearl loss against Georgia State looks worse, but the team coming off a bye is not a positive when you start 3-0. The bye typically helps, but it has not helped this team under Mack Brown as they have had the bye the last two years against Notre Dame and they lost both games by double digits. They also opened up last season and lost to Virginia Tech as a favorite, and lsot their bowl game to South Carolina by 17 points. In 2019 they also lost both of their games with extra rest losing to Virginia Tech and Pitt. Getting away from home should be a good thing for the Irish, and I know the win against Cal is not something that has given many confidence, but the offensive line looked great in the second half and Drew Pyne looked better once he settled in, and I actually think Pyne is an upgrade at QB over the injured Tyler Buchner. This is a great opportunity for Notre Dame who ranks 100th in YPP offense, but has gone up against an average 28th ranked ypp defense. Here they face UNC who ranks 111th in ypp defense, and 109th in ypc allowed, which will be a key as Notre Dame needs to establish the run on the road. North Carolina is also 115th in epa pass defense so there will be opportunities for Pyne to open up the run game by passing on first down, which I think we will see a bit of on Saturday. Notre Dame’s defense is also the best unit North Carolina will face. North Carolina’s offense has looked elite for sure ranking 10th in ypp, but it has come against an average opponent ypp defense ranking 92nd. Drake Maye has been excellent at QB, but he’s faced an average opponent QB defense of 99th. The offensive line also still has issues as they gave up 3 sacks to Georgia State, and 3 sacks to App State. I think Notre Dame’s defensive line here will give them issues. Notre Dame’s defense overall ranks 41st in ypp allowed, and that has come agaisnt a tough schedule that featured Ohio State yet they rank 29th in epa pass defense. Notre Dame’s opponent ypp differential is +1.7 while North Carolina’s opponent ypp differential is -0.25 ypp, which is a huge difference. |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State +3 | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 37 m | Show | |
Michigan State +3 3.3% play This is an over reaction in my opinion, this line opened Michigan State -3.5, and is now at +3, and I understand there are some inuries on Michigan State side, but they are questionable for the game. This is a great opportunity for Michigan State to bounce back at home. I love that Mel Tucker is taking accountability for the dreadful coaching last week, which we benefited from as we had Washington -3 in that game, but the secondary which continues to be an issue should not be the problem this week as Minnesota runs the ball 70% of the time. Michigan State’s defensive strength is their run defense as they rank top 20 this year in ypc and epa, and last year they were top 20 as well. Minnesota under Fleck has always been a run first offense and when facing a top 50 run defense they are just 6-9 since 2018, and 2 of those wins came against Fresno State. Minnesota’s #’s look great, but they have come against on average 104th ranked opponent ypp defense, and 113th opponent ranked offense + an FCS opponent. This is a huge step up for Minnesota who is without their best down the field play maker in Chris Autman-Bell lost for the season. Michigan State has injury concerns as well, but I’m banking on at least 1 or 2 of those guys coming back this week, and if they don’t I still feel good with how QB payton Thorne played in the second half on the road without his top target he looked like a difference maker. Michigan State is the more balanced team they are significantly better on special teams ranking 21st to Minnesota’s 106th ranking, and they are better at limiting the turnovers ranking 1st in percentage of drives ending in a TO. I think this is just a favorable match up for Sparty here, and they had a top 50 offense last year, so far Sparty ranks 32nd in ypp albeit against bad competition, but we saw them move the ball well last week in the second half vs. Washington without a running game. Minnesota just 7-8 the last 4 seasons vs. a top 50 ypp offense. I think Mel Tucker’s players really like him and they’ll fight for him in this hoem game as a dog. |
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09-24-22 | TCU -2 v. SMU | 42-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
TCU -2 2.2% PLAY Sonny Dykes returns to face his old team here, and is off a bye, which I think gives a huge edge to TCU. SMU meanwhile had to go up to play Maryland last week in a 4 quarter battle and travel all the way back home to play their old coach. I like the staff that Dykes brought with him to TCU and the hire of DC Joe Gillespie from Tulsa, a Broyles semifinalist twice, and beat SMU each of the last two years so there is plenty of familiarity here for TCU agaisnt SMU, but not as much for SMU other than the players knowing the scheme. SMU has some glarring red flags to start the season starting with their run defense, which has allowed 200+ yards in each game and rank111th in ypc allowing. Their offense ranks 90th in % of possessions ending in a TO , while TCU ranks 1st in that category. TCU’s offense will be down their starting QB, but many could argue Max Duggan has more experience as the started and really is not a downgrade from Chandler Morris. TCU has lost this game each of the last two times, but Sonny Dykes was on the other sideline. I think the bye week in combination with the familiarity of the players, and SMU’S weakness vs. the run, and TCU’s strenght runnign the ball will give TCU the win. |
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09-17-22 | Miami-FL v. Texas A&M -6.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 55 m | Show | |
Texas A&M -6.5 2.2% play A&M getting some guys back on defense here, and looks like they will be getting their vocal leader Bryce Foster back at Center, which should make a huge advantage for this A&M offense that has not looked great to be nice, but that’s exactly the time I want to back a team. This point spread was 9 a week ahead and we are getting 2.5 points of value based on last week’s results. I honestly don’t know what Miami has really done to impress anyone thus far or warrant them to jump up to #13 in the AP poll. I’m going to sell high on Miami, who is breaking in an entirely new offense and thus far Van Dyke hype has not lived up and he’s really struggling in the new offense. Van Dyke really benefited last year form playing some bad defenses, and the best defense he faced was NC State who was down 5 starters. I saw him late on throws against Southern Miss and was lucky on a few occasions not to turn the ball over and Southern Miss was not even getting pressure on him. Now he has to go on the road and face this talented defensive line in a must win game for A&M at night at Kyle Field. I get why the public is backing Miami 65% of the action, but there is a reason the team that’s ranked lower is still nearly a TD favorite in this one. I think last week was a nice wake up call for this Aggies team, and they come with a great effort with some key guys returning to the lineup. |
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09-17-22 | Michigan State v. Washington -3 | 28-39 | Win | 100 | 44 h 39 m | Show | |
Washington -3 3.3% play Michigan State probably the most popular dog this week, and I think it’s going to be a very tough game for them. Not only are they going very far west something they are not used to doing – 0-5 overall in the history of their program, but they are playing much improved Washington team that brought in Kalen Deboer as the HC, previously Fresno, and OC at Indiana, and he brings Indiana QB transfer Michael Penix who has looked completely healthy. This is a great match up for Washington, because Michigan State’s defensive weakness is the secondary, and a Deboer offense wants to throw, the strength of their offensive line is in pass protection and they have a capable QB that had his best season hen Deboer was his OC. Washington also top 25 recruiting classes in 4 of their past 5 years while Michigan State not bringing in as much talent. I love what Mel Tucker has been doing, and 11-2 last year are signs of great things to come, but I believe they over achieved. They have one WR off the the NFL, Kenneth Walker their do all RB off to the NFL, and I don’t know Payton Thorne is good. I know he did well last year and 15 TD and 5 INT on the road last year, but he only faced 1 team with a top 50 pass defense and they lost. He’s looked very sketchy so far this season vs. Akron he had 0 passing TD and 2 INT, and could be without his top WR target Jaylen Reed. He’s probable, but probably not 100%. |
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09-17-22 | BYU v. Oregon -3.5 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 39 h 26 m | Show | |
Oregon -3.5 2.2% play Horrible spot for BYU here after a double OT win at home against a ranked Baylor team, a game that could have gone either way. I think we are buying low on Oregon after they lost to Georgia 49-3 to open the season now hosting #12 BYU and they’re favorites. BYU likely without their top two WR again making this game even more desirable with Oregon, a defense that is still learning Dan Lannings system, but can only improve. BYU’s offense led by QB Jaren Hall struggles under pressure and have struggled running the ball. I like Oregon’s edge here to at home to force Hall into some turnovers, which is why I like Oregon to cover this #. Bo Nix for all the criticism he gets has been a monster at home over his career 28 TD’s and only 2 INT’s and +2 yards per pass attempt. I think Nix has a mistake free game and Oregon gets a big win for Lanning against a top 25 opponent. |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma v. Nebraska +11 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 1 m | Show | |
Nebraska +11 3.3% PLAY I think we get at least a one game bump from Nebraska players, fans following the firing of Scott Frost. They will welcome in Oklahoma for the old rivalry. This was a 7 point game in Norman last year, which is nothing new with Nebraska as each of their last 13 losses have come by single digits. I like the value we are getting here, and the fact that there is stability and leadership following Frost’s departure. Mickey Joseph takes over as interim head coach and is a long time family friend of QB Casey Thompson who is an extremely mature and experienced QB capable of leading the team after a change like this. Mark Whipple also remains as the OC, and has plenty of experience. Oklahoma has a new defensive minded coaching staff led by Venebles who brought in UCF OC Lebby and QB Gabriel. However, it has not been the Lincoln Riley offense as the offensive line has really struggled so much that they gave up 3 sacks to Kent State, and were trailing 3-0 with a minute to go in the half. Kent State year in and year out has some of the worst defenses ranking outside the top 100 so there is obvious regression on this side of the ball. This will be Oklahoma’s first road trip under Venables and I think Nebraska will show up here to make a statement. 15mph winds expected, which also typically leads to closer games. |
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09-17-22 | Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 29-32 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
Purdue +1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD We have two one dimensional offenses of different styles going against each other as we have a clash of the Big Ten and ACC. First off the Big Ten has gone 8-4 vs. the ACC outscoring them by a TD since 2020 so while these two teams appear to be about the same in their given conference I think Purdue and this coaching staff led by Brohm have definitely proven they are the better team. This is a team that showed they could win on the road winning 5 games last year and are 9-3 ATS overall as an away dog under Jeff Brohm. Meanwhile, Syracuse as a home favorite under Baber 8-7 ATS as a home favorite. Purdue’s run defense is going to be the big match up here as Syracuse has a run first offense led by mobile QB Garret Shrader and the great RB Sean Tucker. Purdue ranks 34th in epa run defense and held Penn State in check in their first game, and allowed less than 4 ypc on the road a season ago. Purdue runs a spread 60%+ pass first offense, that I think is harder to defend than Syracuse option run offense. It also helps that Syracuse ranks 108th in epa pass defense, and ranked outside the top 100 a season ago. While their designed 3-3-5 defense is built to defense the spread their defense is extremely young especially in the secondary. I actually think Purdue who has a size advantage up front with 3 of their 5 OL being upper classmen and an average total weight of 308lbs. I look for Purdue to be able to get some explosive plays in this game, which was something they were able to achieve in week 2 but not in the game against Penn State. I gave out Syracuse at home vs. Louisville in week 1 and it was an easy casher. Syracuse has a very good home field advantage in a dome, but this is an early noon kickoff, and I think Purdue’s pass first play style is something that will give them trouble. They only played two teams a season ago that were pass first offenses (Pitt, NC State) those teams won by 17 and 24 putting up 31 and 41 points respectively and dating back 2019 they are 0-7 vs pass first teams, and they have yet to face a team that passes over 60% of the time like Purdue typically does. Last note on this one.. Jeff Brohm was a +7 dog vs. Dino Babers Bowling Green team back in 2014, and Western Kentucky won 59-31. |
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09-17-22 | Georgia v. South Carolina +25.5 | 48-7 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
South Carolina +24.5 2.2% play Huge recruiting weekend for South Carolina and the atmosphere should be great hosting the #1 team in the nation. I said it last week. This is a team I want to back. They don’t give up on their coach Shane Beamer. This was a 13-40 game at Georgia last year as South Carolina covered the 31 point spread. This spread is essentially saying these teams are the same as last year and I could not disagree more. After watching the Arkansas game it is clear that South Carolina is able to move the ball through the air and have some capable weapons, but it remains a run first team, which helps us when we are trying to cover 24 point spread. The team is also a lot deeper, and dealing with some key injuries, but that is in this number, and they are in a better position to handle those than they were a year ago. Next man up. Georgia also runs a different offense than Arkansas, and South Carolina is at home where they played far better on defense a year ago. Georgia defense at some point will show that they have taken a step back on defense and I think it shows up in their first road game. We are selling high on Georgia here as 70% of the tickets are on Georgia. Everyone saw the shutout of Oregon, and I think that still is impacting this line we are getting here for Georgia in their first road game, and even if they get up 31-0, South Carolina is going to fight for their coach, and with a capable QB a back door cover is clearly possible. I’m not playing this for a back door cover. I expect South Carolina’s best effort at home facing #1 team on a huge recruiting weekend. |
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09-10-22 | Boston College +3 v. Virginia Tech | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 47 m | Show | |
Boston College +3 2.2% play Virginia Tech at night is a rough place to play with Enter Sandman blaring as the Hokies come onto the field, but it hasn’t been as challenging in recent memory. With a new coaching staff taking over, and despite a veteran team they were not very good a week ago. HC Brent Pry said he was surprised how sloppy they were, 5 TO’s 14 penalties. They are all correctable, but in a week? Boston College has the better head coach and QB, and Zay Flowers is a game changer at WR. BC also went into Clemson last year and played that game to the wire. I think BC can pull the upset, but it will be a closely contested game so I’m taking the 3 points. |
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09-10-22 | Kentucky +6 v. Florida | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
Kentucky + 6 3.3% play I think we are getting a ton of value with Kentucky here after Florida upset Utah last week in the swamp. Anthony Richardson is a top 5 Heisman candidate and an unranked Flroida team is now ranked #12, it’s almost laughable. I like Billy Napier as the HC, but lets just slow down a bit. Even Napier said it was going to take some time, and Kentucky has had Florida’s number the last few years and now we are getting a few extra points based on last week’s results. I also like that Kentucky had a MAC team in week 1, and were able to prepare a bit for Florida over the summer while Florida was focused on top 10 Utah. A Utah team that really shot themselves in the foot coming away with 0 points on two trips inside the 10, and of their 6 trips in the red zone they turned it over twice, and settled for 2FG’s. They were able to move the ball with ease on this Florida defense. Kentucky plays with a lot of passion and a chip on their shoulder, and I like their chances here to contain Anthony Richardson who has a lot more to prove at this point. Kentucky really held Richardson in check in last year’s meeting, and I think they can force him to be a passer. Richardson did not have a single attempt to the left side of the field, which to me just goes to show you that he’s got to gain a lot more confidence. Kentucky has some injuries at RB, but I think they’ll be just fine and Will Levis at QB is a capable runner here. Kentucky also holds the edge in special teams and are a far better tackling team. Again, I like Napier, but this is too much credit. One of the reasons Dan Mullen got fired was talent, and recruiting and I just think this ends up being a close game. |
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09-10-22 | Southern Miss +25.5 v. Miami-FL | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show | |
Southern MIss +25 2.2% play |
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09-10-22 | South Carolina +8.5 v. Arkansas | 30-44 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 58 m | Show | |
South Carolina +8.5 2.2% play |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +4.5 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
fsu +4.5 3.3% play |
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09-03-22 | Louisville v. Syracuse +5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Syracuse +5 2.2% play This is a big divisional game to kick off the season in the ACC with two head coaches feeling the pressure of their jobs on the line. With that said there is a lot of love in the market for Louisville due to QB Malik Cunningham, but I'm not so sure they should be a road favorite here, and the line has moved up to +5, giving us even more value on Syracuse, a team that returns 17 guys. Syracuse also lost 71-3 the last two years to Louisville, and don't think that's been on their mind all spring/summer long. Aside from the returnign players it will be the second season of DC Tony White's system (3-3-5), and they bring in OC Robert Anae from Virginia who has experience runnign the spread with heavy run and heavy pass, and I think we will see him lean on the running game, which is the strength of this offense with Garret Scharaeder and Sean Tucker. They ran for 198 yards against Louisville last year, the big key is to keep the game close early so they are not forced to pass. Anae's Virginia team put 500+ yards up on Louisville's defense, and it was all by the pass, and I think we will see a more balanced Syracuse offense this year with their top 3 receivers returning. Special Teams, which was a huge issue last year can only improve with a new ST coach as well, and you can't forget that the Carrier Dome now JMA Wirelless Dome is a very hard place to play especailly at night. Louisville's HC Scott Satterfeld to me has been a disspointment, just 4-10 on the road, and I don't see how it's going to get any better this year. I think they're in the mix for another 7-5 season. I think this game comes down to the wire, and it's a game that Syracuse can steal. |
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09-03-22 | Utah -2.5 v. Florida | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
Utah -2.5 3.3% play |
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09-03-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Ohio +4.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
Ohio +4.5 2.2% play |
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09-03-22 | Rutgers +7 v. Boston College | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 37 h 13 m | Show | |
Rutgers +7 2.2% play Rutgers +7 By brand it seems like Rutgers is the far worse team, and that is giving us some value in the line in my opinion, but closer looks reveals the fact that Rutgers is playing in the tougher conference Big Ten and had similar statistics last year against a far tougher schedule. For instance their opponents average YPP differential was +0.16, while BC’s were -0.32. There are also a ton of familiarities between these two staffs, which means to me a close game. Hafley coached on Schiano’s staff at Rutgers and in the NFL, and both OC/DC, ST coordinators for Illinois coached under Schiano as well. BC breaks in a new OC, and 5 new starters on the offensive line, while Rutgers strength is in the secondary they have great depth on the DL, and I think this game goes down to the wire. Rutgers should get better QB play this year, and they played much better in the early part of last season and should have an edge on special teams here. |
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09-03-22 | North Carolina +1.5 v. Appalachian State | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show | |
North Carolina +1.5 1% I’ll take the extra 3 points of value as North Carolina opened -4 now down to -1 for the instate show down between App State and North Carolina. App State is very much a public dog, as the public knows very well that this team has been able to upset the P5 opponents. In fact they upset North Carolina in 2019, in Mack Brown’s first season, but I would point to the fact that North Carolina was hosting #1 ranked Clemson the next week. Part of this line movement is also, because UNC played FAMU last week as a 45 poitn favorite and only led 35-24 in the third, but I think we saw some good things form Drake Maye at QB, which is the biggest question mark of this team. Maye spread the ball around, and has to have confidence behind a veteran OL. App State also has a veteran OL, two top RB, and veteran QB in Chase Brice, but Brice still turnover prone, 30 INT’s in his career, and in 2020 vs. UNC at home went 11-23, and had 0TD and 1 INT. Mack Brown has emphasized winning on the road as the key to this team’s season. They haven’t won on the road in 630 days, and wouldn’t it be perfect to get a win against App State as a basic dog vs. little brother. I think the talent gap comes out and UNC wins this game. |
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09-02-22 | Illinois v. Indiana -1.5 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
Indiana -1 2.2% play Indiana is really flying under the radar here, and they go up against an Illinois team that blew out Wyoming last week and is getting all kinds of great press. I’m not buying into Illinois, and the praise everyone is giving their transfer QB Tommy Devito who could not hack it at Syracuse. Wyoming also had huge roster issues with transfers, and not surprised at all that Illinois was able to run it up on them. Devito getting praise for 5.2 yards per pass attempt, and now he goes on the road on Friday night in the Big Ten. Indiana also been able to prepare for Illinois didn’t have a game last week, and there is no tape with Indiana bringing in a new OC and a ton of transfers I think Illinois will be guessing early. Indiana had a tough year last year going 2-10, after they lost Penix to injury and had a couple close losses, and were -13 TO. They have a ton of transfers, and Tom Allen’s best recruiting class. I see why some are hesitant and are backing Illinois, but I still think Tom Allen is a better coach than Bielema and I think Indiana has more talent at this point. I really think we see talented QB Connor Bazelak, transfer from Missouri get the nod, and Indiana will be getting the hype after this one. playing a smart game allowing his defense to control the game. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State -3.5 v. Purdue | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
Penn State -3.5 2.2% play Purdue is a bit of a public dog here, and I like Purdue as a dog under Jeff Brohm, but not in this spot to open the season against a more talented team. Purdue is not going to sneak up on anyone at this point, and I'm sure Franklin has highlighted this to his team as Purdue has had major upsets under Brohm including twice against a #2 ranked team. I think it is also a lot to ask Purdue to be competiive in a year they lost 3 players to the NFL draft. Sean Clifford was banged up all year long and got no help from a running game. When healthy Clifford is a very good player, and expect to see that showcased tonight. I like the fact that they brought in Michell Tinsley from Western Kentucky (1402 receiving yards) Parker Washington returns, and they got the Gatorade player of the year in RB Nicholas Singleton who should be a huge asset for Penn State. The defense only returns 4 starters, but I expect they'll be just fine and be able to get pressure from the defensive line and cause some turnovers tonight with new DC Manny Diaz back where he belongs in the DC role. |
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09-01-22 | Central Michigan +21.5 v. Oklahoma State | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
Central Michigan +21.5 2.2% play |
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08-27-22 | North Texas v. UTEP +1.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
UTEP +1.5 1.1% PLAY |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern +11.5 v. Nebraska | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play Northwestern +11.5 2.2% play Any time your see Pat Fitzgerald as an underdog and a double digit underdog you have to take a look. Last year was probably an outlier, and it makes sense they had just 4 starters returning on defense, with a new DC, off a covid year. This year I expect to see a much improved Northwestern team, that has a very experienced OL, and a QB in Ryan Hilinski who could make great strides. This game is played in Ireland, and I expect Northwestern to be the more diciplined team. Scott Frost tenure at Nebraska has been frustrating, and I understand that 3-9 campaign was the best 3 win team of all time. We benefited from backing Nebraska countless times, but Frost had to clean house to keep his job. I personally don't like to back a team with so many changes early in the season. I'm not sure I'm a fan of Casey Thompson starting at QB. I thought Adrian Martinez really took a lot of the blame for the struggles of this team. He would have the TO's that cost them games, but he also had to carry this offense on his shoulders, led the team in rushing. Casey Thompson has only 10 career starts, not nearly as dynamic as Martinez, and showed struggled in road games, and vs. top defenses. Northwestern's defense should be improved, and the strength is in their secondary. I expect a very close game to start the year here, and when you consider 18-20 were all close games between these two with the spread being 7 or less points, and Northwestern take 2 of those 3, we have line value. Last year's blowout loss should be on Northwestern's mind, and I think that is why we have some line inflation here. |
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01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama +3 | Top | 33-18 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Alabama +3 5.5% NCAAF POD First off lets address the "sharp" vs. "public joe," because it does appear that 60% of the tickets are on Bama, and just 40% of the money. I think many are number grabbers pointing to the fact that, hey Georgia was -6.5 on a neutral in the SEC Championship, and now they are -3 or even -2.5 in places. The look ahead was actually 3.5 for that game, but Alabama struggled with Auburn and we get 3 points of line movement. If anything this is great news for the Alabama side, because there is no rat poison for NIck Saban's players to feel overly confident even though they just beat this team by double digits. It only helps that many of the radio and guys who say they are sharp are also on Georgia here. Many of those guys that are said to be sharp, are not transparent on their records and don't win long term. Some other concerns here are the fact that Menchie is out for Alabama, and while that's a big loss, they replace him with another 5 star WR that has more talent in Ja"Corey Brooks who had 4 catches, 66 yards and a TD vs. Cincinnati. There are some bumps and bruises on the right side of the offensive line, but those are being hush hush, and I think there won't be an issue. Bryce Young can't play out of his mind again, but I think you have to factor in Brian Robinson is healthy again, and wasn't for the SEC Championship. Jameson Williams is a difference maker and the main reason Alabama struggled vs. Auburn. We saw the difference with him in the game, and I'm sure Georgia makes adjustments to take him out of the game, but that opens things up for Bolden, Billingsley, and Brooks and others in this passing game. Georgia's offense in recent match ups has come out throwing on Alabama, mainly bc that seems to be the weakness of the defense, and it is again this year. You can't ignore that Stetson Bennett has played better agaisnt Alabama in his last outing, but still he threw 2 interceptions, and I still question now that Alabama is able to take that game and make adjustments. Honestly when we take out the two Alabama games he has had 13 opponents he's gone up against and they have had an average 73 ypp defense, and those teams who averaged 73rd rank ypp went against an opponent average of 59.3 ypp offense. He's really only gone up against a total of 4 top 40 defenses including the two times against Alabama. He struggled this year against Florida who ranked 39th in ypp, and he had a great game against Michigan, but they had extra month to prepare, and lets be honest Michigan was not the 8th ranked defense, they played an easy schedule of offenses averaging 73.5 in ypp. Alabama ranks 7th, and their opponent average ypp offense is 51. In my opinion Alabama's defense is totally getting disrespected with all the talk on Georgia's defense, which has flaws. Their secondary does not have the speed to keep up with Alabama's receivers, and Alabama with their hurry up can take the defensive line out of the game. It's really up to Stetson Bennett in this game, and can he make adjustments again to make his game better? I just don't think the talent is there for him to pull something we haven't seen before, and going up against Nick Saban who will make his own adjustments from the last game. Adjustments, and psychological advantage on the Alabama side. You really can't argue that. 2017 Georgia played Alabama in the National Championship game and led 13-0 at the half, but then adjustments and Saban went to a backup QB, and they outscored Georgia 26-10 to win in OT. In fact Alabama has outscored Georgia in the second half 85-24 in the last 4 meetings including the 2017 game. They trailed in 3 of the 4 in the first half 75-58. So if we consider this second game of the season like a second half, where both teams have limited time to review and make adjustments, history tells us that Alabama is going to have the advantage, and I think that advantage is on their defense which is held Georgia to 6ppg in the second half of games. Stetson Bennett could prove me wrong, but until I see it there is only one play here and it's on Alabama as a dog. |
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01-01-22 | Baylor v. Ole Miss -1 | 21-7 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
Ole Miss -1.5 3.3% play I love the fact that Matt Corral will play in this game, and I love that Ole Miss will be going for their 11th win for the first time in program history. Baylor has had a remarkable season, and I have to give Dave Arranda a lot of credit. I faded this team multiple times under Arranda, and I was flat out wrong. With all of that being said, I think Ole Miss has an advantage in the dome here, some of their stats, which are already better against tougher competition are off, because Corral was not healthy most of the year and he rarely had all 3 of his receivers healthy, but they will in this game. Baylor will start Gerry Bohannon who missed time with a hamstring issue, but how healthy is he, and at what point in the game does the hamstring become an issue if at all? Honestly both teams had similar schedules, but Ole Miss +0.9 ypp differential, vs. an average opponent 0.37 is impressive compared to Baylor +0.7 vs. 0.225. Both teams went 5-1 against opponents who had a +0.7 or higher yard per play differential, and Ole Miss only loss against Alabama, while Baylor lost to Oklahoma State, and should have lost to Iowa State (go back and look). In that 5-1 span Ole Miss played the tougher competition those teams averaged 0.98 ypp differential against their opponent 0.15 ypp, and Ole miss +9.6 points in their wins, while Baylor’s opponetns average 0.92ypp vs. opponent average of +0.04, and won by a margin of 8.8 points per game. So all around very close, but what gets me to play this game here is Matt Corral is the better QB, some of Ole Miss stats are off because of the major injuries, and I actually like that Ole Miss defense stepped up when they were not 100% on offense. |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 46 m | Show | |
Utah +4.5 3.3% play / Utah +165 0.7% bonus |
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01-01-22 | Kentucky v. Iowa +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 5 h 49 m | Show | |
Iowa +3.5 -120 3% play |
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12-30-21 | Arizona State v. Wisconsin -6.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -6.5 2.2% play Arizona State without their top 2 RB, top 2CB, but this handicap seems a bit basic to me. Arizona State only wins games when they control the trenches and avoid the turnover. +4 to margin in wins -5 in losses more on this later. In wins they run for 5.76 ypc, and losses 4.15. They were also not a good running team away form home compared to home where they averaged over a ypc more, and they’ll be going up against one of the best run defenses in the country in Las Vegas, where Wisconsin should have a bit of home field advantage. Wisconsin fans travel well to every sport. Defensively Arizona State is very good, but allowed 3.01 ypc in wins, and 4.63 ypc in losses. They allowed 1.36ypc more on the road this year. Wisconsin has the advantages in run defense and run offense. Arizona State just 1-3 vs. teams that are in the top 50 in rushing offense giving up a TD more than their 20.9ppg allowed overall in those games. Their 4 losses this year were by double digits. Arizona State also faced just one team in the top 75 in success rate defense, and Wisconsin is #2. They’ll have to do it without their top 2 RB, their C who was All Pac 12, and their top 2 CBs. I don’t trust Jayden Daniels to win this game for Arizona State. When he was held under 50 yards this year they were just 1-4 scoring 17, 21,21, 10 and 42 points in those games. Wisconsin boasts the #2 epa run defense, #1 in ypc, and held a similar QB in Adrian Martinez to only 23 yards on 9 carries. I believe the issues that were giving Wisconsin problems early that led to losses were turnovers and that was cleaned up. They had -11 to margin in their first 5 games, and finished +12 in their final 7 games. Arizona State actually ranked 104th in to% per drive, and Daniels had just as many issues as Mertz.ew Graham Mertz is still not the answer, but it seems like Arizona State’s run defense can be had and unless Wisconsin announces a bunch of players out due to covid I like this number, and I’ll back the Badgers in what should be a close game. Wisconsin also has the edge on special teams. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh v. Michigan State -3 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
Michigan State -3 2.2% play |
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12-30-21 | Purdue v. Tennessee -6 | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
Tennessee -6 2.2% play Tennessee wants to go fast, and Hooker has been a blast to watch. Purdue is playing without their top two WR, Bell and Wright, their starting LT Greg Long is doubtful, and best defender George Karlaftis is preparing for the NFL draft. They also are without their Sr CB Dedrick Mackey who dind’t make the trip for academic issues. I don’t think these losses in this match up have been properly calculated into the line. Purdue no longer has the offensive fire power to keep up with Tennessee in my opinion. Tennessee’s defensive weakness is vs. the run, but Purdue passes the ball 62% of the time, and will be without their top weapon. Every time a defense faces this offense for the first team it takes time to adjust, and I think Tennessee can go up early in this one. Purdue has not seen anything like the speed that is going to be run by Tennessee and it’s going to be a huge adjustment. Other factors here are the fact that Purdue also very prone to the turnovers ranking 112th in turnovers per possession and that was with their top targets and LT in the game. Tennessee takes care of the ball ranking 34th in to% per drive. Tennessee also has a huge edge in special teams ranking 7th to 102nd. |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson -1 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show | |
Clemson -1 3.3% play |
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12-28-21 | Louisville +1 v. Air Force | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
Louisville +1 2.2% play |
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12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 29 m | Show | |
Florida -6.5 1.1% |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA +3 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
UTSA +3 5.5% NCAAF POD I think this game means more to UTSA, they will have the crowd edge in Frisco, TX and I’m a bit surprised they are dogs here, but the Mountain West just gets more respect than C-USA, but they are just 11-10 vs. C-USA in bowl games. We already saw UTEP go toe to toe with Fresno State, and that was much more of a mismatch than this game. In reality on paper UTSA is the better team, far more balanced overall where San Diego State is a very good team, but they have a very bad offense. They’ll rely on running the ball, but they still rank just 83rd in EPA run, and they are going up against a very good run defense that play physical football, and ranks 29th in epa run defense. San Diego State played 3 top run defenses this year and scored 19, 20, and 20 points. UTSA is without their star RB who opts out to prepare for the NFL draft, but if there is a position I’d want to lose, it would be RB. They still have their leader Frank Harris at QB, and San Diego State’s defense has not faced a mobile QB this season. IF you remember they played Utah gave up 31 points at home, won the game, but that was the first game for Cam Rising at QB, and he had 50 rushing yards against this San Diego State defense. Facing a top defense is nothing new for UTSA and I think they’ll enjoy the challenge. They faced 4 top 40 ypp defenses and averaged 35.5 points per game in those games eclipsing 27 or more points in each. I have tremendous respect for Jeff Traylor he’s a winner, and they beat a Western Kentucky team in their Championship game that dominated in bowl season. They have hit many goals this year, beating a Big 10 opponent, getting 12 wins, and a C-USA Championship, but going for a 13th win is something very special especially since it would be their first bowl win ever. Jeff Traylor is one hell of a coach we backed them against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship, and it paid off and I’ll do it again here. Traylor missed last year’s bowl game because of COVID protocols, and his team still nearly upset Louisiana Lafayette as a +14 dog. They got behind 24-7, and crawled back to tie the game in the 4th. This is a team that does not give up plays hard football, and I think they get the upset here. Brady Hoke has had a great season, but I feel like the luck runs out here. He’s just 2-3 in bowl games and when this defense played a top 50 ypp offense they went 1-1, but gave up 30 points in both games. The only reason I’m not taking the money line here is these are two defensive teams, San Diego State plays a lot of close games, and the 3 points mean a lot more than getting +122. |
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12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State +3.5 | 52-38 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
Kent State +3.5 2.2% play / Kent State +150 1% play This is a very interesting game, and I think we are getting some extra value here, because the MAC is 0-3 in bowl games, and the Mountain West is 2-0, and then you ad din the fact that Wyoming went 2-0 vs. the MAC, and beat Northern Illinois on the road 50-43, while Kent State lost to Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship. A closer look reveals that Wyoming forced 3 turnovers against Northern Illinois and gave up well over 6 ypc. Kent State, which is known for their up tempo offense was facing Northern Illinois for the second time this season, which makes it much easier to play against if you’ve seen it before, and Kent State actually did a better job running and stopping the run against Northern Illinois, which is actually shocking for a Wyoming team known for their defense. Wyoming’s defense ranked 32nd in ypp, but they faced an average opponent ypp offense ranking 84th. There are holes in this defense that haven’t been there in the past. They actually ranked 70th in epa run defense, 85th in ypc defense, and that’s the key for Kent State’s fast paced offense as they run the ball 58% of the time, but they are also an offense that can beat you with the pass with Dustin Crum under center. This is the best offense that Wyoming has faced all year. All the other offenses they faced were not in the top 50 in rushing and passing, and Wyoming went 1-3 this season against top 50 success rate offenses, and Kent State ranks 3rd in success rate offense. Their lone win was vs. Northern Illinois, but again they forced 3 INT’s, and I don’t see that as something Crum will commit here. Kent State beat a Mountain West opponent 2 years ago that was no better than this Wyoming team as they won 51-41 against Utah State. I really like what Sean Lewis is building here, and I think the world of Wyoming’s HC, but Wyoming has some real head scratchers this season. Not only did they play a far weaker non-conference schedule with Uconn, and 2 MAC teams while Kent State played 3 power 5 opponents including Iowa and Texas A&M on the road, but Wyoming had some real clunkers getting blown out at home against Hawaii, barely getting by Uconn by 2 points, losing to horrible teams like New Mexico and San Jose State, yet people are running to the window to bet Wyoming here, and I just don’t see how you can play Wyoming given those facts. I get it Kent State’s defense is awful, but Wyoming really doesn’t have a top defense to slow them down, and it’s the first time all year they are going to play a team that plays this fast. My biggest reason for taking Kent State however is their ability to win the TO battle. They rank top 25 in fewest possessions ending in a TO on offense, Wyoming is outside the top 100, and their defense ranks top 25 in forcing TO’s per possessions, while Wyoming ranks outside the top 100. Wyoming +7 TO margin in their wins, -10 in losses, while Kent State is +14 in wins, and -1 in losses. Kent State should win the TO battle and win this game outright. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 18 m | Show | |
Oregon State -7 3.3% play Utah State overachieved this year and won the Mountain West, but it came against a very short handed San Diego State team, and I feel like we may be getting a short line, because of that. Oregon State could win their first Bowl Game in more than a decade, and they’ll get a chance to do it on a very big stage. Jonathan Smith could have gotten the HC job at Washington where he was the OC for the Huskies when they go to the College Football Playoff, but he decided to stay at his alma matter, and this is a massive game on ABC Saturday night in LA. I think Smith is a better coach than Blake Anderson, who is 1-4 in bowl games. Oregon State’s biggest weakness was going on the road in PAC 12 play where they went 0-5, but this is a neutral site game here. Oregon State beat some good teams this year by more than 7 points including Arizona State and Utah. When they rushed for more than 230 yards they went 6-1, and 5 of those 6 wins came by more than a TD. Utah State vs. a top 30 rushing offense was shredded going 1-2, giving up 44, 34, and 45 points, 10 rushing TD’s and 1,020 rushing yards in the 3 games. Their lone win over Air Force was a bit misleading. Air Force was just 2-4 in the red zone coming away with 17 points, while Utah State was 3-3. Air Force was also -1 TO margin and stopped on 4th down and still only lost by 4. It was the difference between Air Force playing for the Conference Championship. Oregon State is one of the best red zone offenses, and expect them to put up plenty of points in this one. |
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12-18-21 | UAB v. BYU -6.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
BYU -6.5 1.1% Free Play I feel like this is a cheap line on BYU here, a team with 2 losses on the season. It sounds square, but with 10,000+ tickets 67% of the money is on UAB. This team has one loss against Boise State, a game they were -4 TO margin in, they were + TO margin in 10 of their 12 games. The other game was on the road for the Big 12 Champion Baylor, a team that had many on their staff that was previously on BYU staff and very familiar with BYU, and HC Sitake. The line dipping below 7 is largely part of some missing starters, but the losses in my opinion are not significant. BYU has to feel disrespected to play in this bowl game, but I don’t see them not being interested. They were 6-0 vs. P5 opponents. BYU has faced two top 30 YPP defenses like UAB, and they went 2-0 with wins of 9 and 10 points against Utah and Arizona State. UAB, and Bill Clark have done a phenomenal job since bringing this program back in 2017. The one thing they have failed to do is win their step-up games. Their last 5 seasons they have played 5 Power 5 opponents, and have lost by 51, 17, 23, 21, and 29. Their best offensive player Dewayne McBride is not 100%, and questionable. I have heard the players and fans are a bit angry the game is 6 hours away in Shreeport, Louisiana. They wanted the game in Mobile, which was a lot closer for their fans. Whether that has any impact is unknown, but important to point out the level of excitement as some fans are staying behind to watch the basketball game against West Virginia at home. I have to address the weather, because it’s going to be a factor here with rain expected, but I think that favors a mature BYU team more than it does UAB. |
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12-18-21 | UTEP +12.5 v. Fresno State | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 39 h 3 m | Show | |
utep +12.5 2.2% play / Utep +375 0.5% |
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12-17-21 | Toledo -10 v. Middle Tennessee State | 24-31 | Loss | -112 | 39 h 5 m | Show | |
Toledo -10 3.3% play |
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12-11-21 | Navy +7.5 v. Army | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
NAVY +7.5 5.5% NCAAF POD I expect a tight game on a neutral field here. The numbers favor Army, but Navy has faced the tougher schedule with Notre Dame and Cinci on their schedule and their opponent YPP differential are far different. Navy has faced an average opponent YPP diff of +0.65 cmopared to Army -0.2. The YPP differential, and opponent YPP differential leads me to believe that Army is the side, but you have to understand these two teams know each other, and anything over a TD I think is gold in this game. This most resembles the 2018 game where Army was 7 point favorite, and pushed with a 17-10 win, but that was because they were +4 TO margin. Army +11 TO margin in their wins and -4 in their losses. Navy has a total of 8 to's on the season and rank 5th in posessions ending in a TO, Army ranks 10th. I actually think Navy has the better run defense they rank 52nd in epa run defense comapred to Army who is 87th. It doesn't look or seem like Navy is any better than last year, and last year was a complete disaster for Navy, but Army is slightly worse, and Navy has gotten a lot better. Their average offensive and defensive standard line yards, power success, and stuff rate is 48th, Army's is 23.16. Last year, when they were also +7.5 a true road game mind you. They averaged 75th, while Army averaged 31st. In 2018 when Navy was 7 point dog on a neutral they averaged 80th, while Army averaged 20th. I think this match-up is going to be a lot closer, and Navy has been a pesky team this year. They have given some teams that are better than Army fits. They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits. They won at home against UCF, lost by only 3 to East Carolina and at won at Tulsa who statistically are better than Army. Navy'd DC, Brian Newberry has only given up 2 TD's in 2 games vs. Army so expect Navy to have an opportunity to win the game. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
Iowa +11 3.3% play |
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12-04-21 | Wake Forest v. Pittsburgh -3 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 43 h 28 m | Show | |
Pitt -3 2.2% play |
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12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -6 | 46-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 26 m | Show | |
SD St -6 1.1% |
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12-03-21 | Oregon +3 v. Utah | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
Oregon +3 3.3% play |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA +3.5 | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
UTSA +3.5 3.3% PLAY |
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11-27-21 | California +7 v. UCLA | 14-42 | Loss | -120 | 75 h 13 m | Show | |
Cal +7 3% play |
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11-27-21 | Oklahoma +4.5 v. Oklahoma State | 33-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
Oklahoma +4.5 3.3% play |
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11-27-21 | Kentucky +3 v. Louisville | 52-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
Kentucky+3 1% free Play |
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11-27-21 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +13 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Syracuse +13 2.2% play |
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11-27-21 | Clemson v. South Carolina +12.5 | 30-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
South Carolina +12.5 3.3% play |
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11-27-21 | Wisconsin -7 v. Minnesota | 13-23 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 41 m | Show | |
Wisconsin -7 2.2% play |
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11-27-21 | Tulsa +6.5 v. SMU | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
Tulsa +6.5 5.5% MAX POD / Tulsa +205 1% bonus I love this game not only is the situation in our favor, but so are the numbers and the match ups. Situationally, SMU comes off a loss to Cinci and they no longer have a shot at the conference championship, and their head coach is likely headed to TCU. Phillip Montgomery on the other side is playing for bowl eligibility he just got a 2 year extension, which shows the confidence of the Tulsa program in Montgomery despite a 5-6 record. That’s great news, because motivation for a bowl game with extra practices is clearly there to help build this program. A closer look reveals Tulsa was right in their games against three Top 10 teams on the road. At Ohio State – they lost 41-20, but this was a 27-20 game with 3 minutes to play in the 4th quarter before Ohio State tacked on two late TD’s including an INT returned for a TD. At Oklahoma State – they led 14-7 heading into the 4th quarter and lose 23-28. At Cincinnati – they trailed 28-20 with the ball on the goal line two separate occasions where Cincinnati held them. Tulsa actually held a 297 to 116 yard edge in the running game, and that brings me to the match up. SMU has a very good run defense due to the size of their defensive line. However, when going up against Cincinnati they no longer had that advantage as Cincinnati’s offensive line is massive averaging 313lbs, and the result was SMU giving up 250 rushing yards. Tulsa also has a massive offensive line averaging 320lbs. They have a top 50 rushing attack, and should be able to run the ball here, but more importantly I think they’ll be able to pass the ball. SMU ranks 112th in QB rating defense, and 121st in epa pass defense. When Tulsa has faced a bad pass defenses that rank outside the top 50 they actually average 38.4 points per game which is 2 TD more, and they are 5-1 with their lone loss being 17-20 against Navy. Navy is typically the outlier in these situations, because of the unique offense they run, and their ability to limit the number of possessions. The biggest issue for Tulsa’s offense this year has been the TO’s they rank 126th in percentage of their posessions ending in a TO, but when facing a non-top 80 TO defense (SMU is 112th). They have only 3 TO’s in 4 games. SMU’s offense is top 30 unit, but they rely more on their passing game, and Tulsa’s defensive strength is vs. the pass. They rank 39th in epa pass defense. SMU’s passing offense has only faced 3 top 50 pass defenses all season. They got beat badly against Cincinnati, lost to Houston, and beat UCF. At the end of the day this line should be more like 2.5 to 3.5. Tulsa +0.5 ypp, and SMU +0.5 YPP differential and Tulsa clearly has done it against tougher competition with Oklahoma State, and Ohio State in their non-conference schedule compared to TCU for SMU. The last 5 meetings have been decided by less than a TD with Tulsa winning 5. |
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11-27-21 | Alabama -19.5 v. Auburn | 24-22 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 52 m | Show | |
Alabama 2% |
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11-27-21 | Troy +6.5 v. Georgia State | 10-37 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Troy +6.5 3.3%play / Troy +210 1% play Troy fired their head coach, and it’s a step up game for the players to get to a bowl game and a 6th win. The DC Brandon Hall takes over, and that’s the strength of this Troy team. They rank 22nd in ypp, and they are 14th against the run. Georgia State runs the ball 63% of the time they rank 31st running the ball, but they faced top 50 rushing offenses three times this season and put up 10, 16, and 17 points. If Troy can stop the run on first down, and bring up obvious passing situations it will be a long day for Georgia State as Troy ranks 2nd in sack %, they are 38th opposing offense TO%. Troy’s Gunnar Watson threw for over 400 yards in the 34-36 loss in this game last year, and Georgia State’s pass defense is worse. They rank 99th in epa pass defense, so I believe Troy can have enough success in that category. Watson missed time this year, but they are 3-3 since he came back, and the 3 losses were against the top 3 teams in the Sun Belt, Lafayette, Coastal Carolina, and App State. Georgia is wildly inconsistent and playing their 6th game in 6 weeks. They have been under dogs in all 8 meetings against Troy, but here they are a favorite of nearly a TD. |
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11-27-21 | Miami-OH v. Kent State | 47-48 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Miami Ohio pk 3.3% play |
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11-27-21 | Ohio State -7 v. Michigan | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 30 m | Show | |
Ohio State -7 2.2% play I’m a bit surprised this number is not over 10. The numbers say to play Michigan, but every time they step up in competition like this they get beat badly. I don’t think the outstanding ends from Michigan will be able to get pressure on CJ Stroud who has been getting the ball out of his hands to the best trio of WR’s in the country, and every time this Michigan secondary goes up against more athletic receivers, they are not able to hold up. Michigan’s numbers under Harbough have largely been a bit misleading as he likes to run it up against the weaker teams on the schedule. Still it appears Ohio State has a massive advantage with a +3.1 ypp differential compared to Michigan’s +1.7 differential. Ohio State has been dominant vs. the run, and unless Michigan comes out throwing on first down to surprise, he Buckeyes I think it could be a long day for the Wolverines at home. I believe the under is the way to go here with a total of 64.5 is a lot of points when you consider Harbough got back to the old power running days. They rank 104th in seconds per play, and I don’t think they have any wishes to get into a track meet. Their best bet to win this game is to create a slug fest. We have two teams that rank top 25 in 20+ plays allowed and at the end of the day these are still two very good defenses. |
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11-26-21 | Washington State v. Washington +1 | 40-13 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Washington +1 1.1% Free play |
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11-26-21 | Iowa +1 v. Nebraska | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 42 h 12 m | Show | |
Iowa +1 3.3% play |
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11-20-21 | Oregon +3.5 v. Utah | 7-38 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Oregon +3.5 -115 4% play Everytime this jumpt to 3.5 it gets back down to +3, and is currently at +3 +100 or -105 so you shoudl be able to get this number. Everyone knows I'm holidng an Oregon +2500 National Title ticket with some other long shots, but I do truly believe this team steps up when it matters and plays to the level of their competition. Utah is getting tremendous respect in this line, and I understand they have great home field advantage, BUT.. This is not the same Utah team as year's past. Their defense is young, and has given up 200+ yards rushing three times this season and against Arizona State they trailed 21-7 at half. Arizona State was having over 50% success running the ball in the first half, and I'm not sure what happened, but if anything that raises flags for Utah's defense for me. Utah has some key injuries here with their All Conference CB out, their achnor on DL Moala out for season, and his replacement Faybian Marks got injured against Arizona. Oregon had success in the 2019 Pac 12 Chanmpionship running the ball against a much more talented defense rushign for 241 yards and really controlling the game. Yes, Justin Herbert was the QB, and everyone is obsesses with him, but he really did not have a great game, nor did Cristobal ever let him loose. Oregon won that game for their play in the trenches, and the #'s say to me that they are better than that year while Utah is worse. Utah is starting 5 freshman players on their defense!!! Utah's offense has been very impressive since Rising took over and I'm not going to discount that. Oregon has been bend but don't break defense, and really haven't had a game that has been dominant, but that could change here today. I think Utah has some injury issues on the OL, and look to be without their starting C paul Maile. Whittingham is pretty quiet on injuries, but they also have their hammer Tavion Thomas who is banged up as well. Thomas will play, but he had some fumble issues earlier in the season that I wonder if they creep back up. Whenever you are playing less than 100% that seems to be where your mind is on something other than protecting the ball. Oregon's defense ranks 12th in defensive posessions ending in a TO. 2019, Oregon also had a chance to get into College Football Playoff traveling to Tempe to face Arizona State, much like this trip, and they lost 28-31. Why is this different? Oregon does not have the pressure of letting a generational QB throw the ball they can be themselves, which is running the ball. Herbert, the wonder kid threw 2 INT in that game that cost them the game. I think this game is going to be close. I think the line is off as Oregon has very similar #'s, but they are the better running team and the better run defense, they ahve a significantly better special teams, and their defense is more experienced and forces more TOs. The only reason we are seeing 3, 3.5 is Anthony Brown. I believe Brown is going to play with a chip on his shoulder, he's going to be a runner, and he'll make/take the easy throws to a taltened WR group. |
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11-20-21 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Miami-FL | 26-38 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 60 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech +7.5 3.3% play We have an interesting dichotomy on our hands in this match up. On one hand we have Virginia Tech who fired their HC Justine Fuente this week, and the other we have Manny Diaz likely out after this season or next week as Miami fired their AD. We have seen it time and time again with teams stepping up in their first game after a HC was not there. We saw it last week with Washington, the week before with Baylor, Washington St and USC earlier this season. On top of that Miami off a gut punching loss to their in state rival Florida State. They gave up a 4th and 14, they had 14 penalties they are just a bad team, and it is on the HC Manny Diaz The match up is also very favorable as Miami is a pass 1st team, and the strength of Virginia Tech’s defense is the pass defense where they rank top 30 in the nation. Virginia Tech’s offensive strength/identity is in the running game, and Miami’s defensive weakness is against the run. Miami ranks 83rd in EPA run defense, 96th in 20+ yard runs allowed. Virginia Tech has large advantage in special teams ranking 15th to Miami’s 86th, and they have edge in third down efficiency as well as TO %’s. Virginia Tech should win the TO battle when we look at the fact that Miami ranks 111th in offensive TO %, and 119th in forcing TO’s, while Virginia Tech ranks 15th in offensive possessions ending in TO’s. To make matters worse Miami also has a huge penalty issues while Virginia Tech is relatively clean on penalties. Miami’s pass defense is also not great, and because of injuries they have 3 freshman starting along with a sophomore so Virginia Tech may be able to have some balance here. I think we are getting some value as that road trip to Boston College is factored into the spread here, but Virginia Tech lost their starting QB Braxton Burmeister on the first or second series and there was a large drop off. Also worth noting is Virginia Tech is still alive in the Coastal, and they led 24-13 late in the 3Q in last year’s matchup before losing 25-24. |
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11-20-21 | Baylor v. Kansas State | 20-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Kansas State pk 2.2% play |
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11-20-21 | UCLA -3 v. USC | 62-33 | Win | 100 | 40 h 43 m | Show | |
UCLA -3 3.3% PLAY USC in their 4 wins havea llowed 3.11 ypc, and in their 5 losses 5.5 ypc, but bad news as UCLA comes in with the 25th ranked ypc attack, and 13th epa run offense. USC overall ranks 98th in stopping the run, and it's not like they can stop the pass either ranking 119th in epa pass defense. UCLA actually has balance on offense ranking 39th in epa pass offense. Advantages for USC in this game is the fact taht they are a throw first team, and UCLA has really struggled vs. the pass ranking 94th in epa pass defense, but the reality is USC is not much better than UCLA at passing the ball, and their pass defense is worse. USC will also be without their best WR London, and QB Slovis, as they look to start a true freshman. USC also has all the interim coaches, which after a bye is not ideal in my opinion. Maybe they are trying out for new jobs, but I still think the players probably aren't going to be showing max effort here where UCLA felt robbed in last year's game losing with seconds to go. UCLA's 4 losses this year have been against the top 3 teams in the PAC 12, and top team in the Mountain West. All 4 teams have top 40 defenses in Fresno, Utah, Arizona St, and Oregon. USC ranks 103rd in YPP, and that has come against a realtively weak schedule of offenses ranked 70th in ypp offense. The last two years USC has been top 70 vs. an average 58th ranked ypp off. |
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11-20-21 | Nebraska +9.5 v. Wisconsin | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 39 h 17 m | Show | |
Navy +4 5.5% NCAAF POD 25 seniors will be honored here on Senior Day, the last home game, and Navy 17-1 SU run on SR. Day, with the lone loss coming last year in front of zero fans. East Carolina is in a huge sandwich spot, not only do they have to travel the second week in a row they do it after a huge upset over Memphis, which they became bowl eligible with, and they have Cincinnati at home next week. East Carolina was also out played last week as they were -1.5 ypp in the game, but were lucky to recover both fumbles in the game and held on in OT as Memphis went for 2. On top of the situation I also like the match up. Navy sports a top 50 run defense ranking 38th in epa run defense. East Carolina vs. top 50 defenses are 0-3 and have averaged 10.5 ppg less than their season average. East Carolina’s defensive weakness is also bad against the run ranking 89th, where their pass defense is their strength ranking 21st in epa pass defense, which likely won’t play a factor here with Navy running the ball 84% of plays. Navy was bad last year, and they were able to win at East Carolina and ran for nearly 300 yards in the game. East Carolina also heavily relies on forcing turnovers to get wins. 13 forced turnovers in their 6 wins, and Navy ranks 5th in % of possessions ending in a TO. +4 is a lot of points in a game with limited possessions especially when you look at East Carolina who struggles in the red zone 51% TD%, 42% on the road that 4 points becomes a lot more valuable. Navy for as bad as their defense seems they have faced a very tough schedule on average ranking of 42nd in YPP. They rank 11th in the country with just 33 20+ plays allowed. Lastly, Navy has been a pesky team this year. They have given some teams that are better than East Carolina fits. They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits. They won at home against UCF, and at Tulsa who statistically are better teams than East Carolina. East Carolina is -0.2 YPP vs. avg opp -0.05, while UCF +0.3 vs. -0.02, Tulsa +0.1 vs. +0.04. I think Navy gets this game for their seniors. |
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11-20-21 | East Carolina v. Navy +4 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 39 h 13 m | Show | |
Navy +4 5.5% NCAAF POD 25 seniors will be honored here on Senior Day, the last home game, and Navy 17-1 SU run on SR. Day, with the lone loss coming last year in front of zero fans. East Carolina is in a huge sandwich spot, not only do they have to travel the second week in a row they do it after a huge upset over Memphis, which they became bowl eligible with, and they have Cincinnati at home next week. East Carolina was also out played last week as they were -1.5 ypp in the game, but were lucky to recover both fumbles in the game and held on in OT as Memphis went for 2. On top of the situation I also like the match up. Navy sports a top 50 run defense ranking 38th in epa run defense. East Carolina vs. top 50 defenses are 0-3 and have averaged 10.5 ppg less than their season average. East Carolina’s defensive weakness is also bad against the run ranking 89th, where their pass defense is their strength ranking 21st in epa pass defense, which likely won’t play a factor here with Navy running the ball 84% of plays. Navy was bad last year, and they were able to win at East Carolina and ran for nearly 300 yards in the game. East Carolina also heavily relies on forcing turnovers to get wins. 13 forced turnovers in their 6 wins, and Navy ranks 5th in % of possessions ending in a TO. +4 is a lot of points in a game with limited possessions especially when you look at East Carolina who struggles in the red zone 51% TD%, 42% on the road that 4 points becomes a lot more valuable. Navy for as bad as their defense seems they have faced a very tough schedule on average ranking of 42nd in YPP. They rank 11th in the country with just 33 20+ plays allowed. Lastly, Navy has been a pesky team this year. They have given some teams that are better than East Carolina fits. They gave SMU issues, Houston issues, Cincinnati issues all 3 games decided by single digits. They won at home against UCF, and at Tulsa who statistically are better teams than East Carolina. East Carolina is -0.2 YPP vs. avg opp -0.05, while UCF +0.3 vs. -0.02, Tulsa +0.1 vs. +0.04. I think Navy gets this game for their seniors. |
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11-20-21 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 42 m | Show | |
Iowa State +3.5 2.2% play / Iowa St +155 1% ML Bonus Iowa State actually has better numbers against a tougher schedule than Oklahoma does, yet this line is stating that Oklahoma is a -1.5 favorite on a neutral. I get it Iowa State has 4 losses, and some of them have been very freaky losses, games they would not have lost in the past but have this year, because they were no longer playing in the under dog role and in a way had a target on their back, but they are back to the role we love them in, and that is an under dog. Iowa State is 5-1 ATS the last 6 meetings, and Oklahoma just came off a loss to Baylor, which essentially was a dream crushing loss as they are likely now out of the CFB Playoff picture. This just is not the same Oklahoma offense as years past. First of all they rank 5th in YPP so you may argue that, but the fact of the matter is they faced an average opponent ypp defense ranked 87th. Last year they faced an average opponent defense ranked 60th, and they were not starting a true freshman QB, and the previous two years had experienced QB’s. The last 3 match ups between these two teams have been very close. Oklahoma won by 6 last year at Iowa State, lost by 7 at home, and won by 1 in 2018. When we look back at those 3 Oklahoma teams they on average had +2.13 YPP edge against an average opponents YPP differential of -0.17. This year they are only +0.7 YPP differential, against a average opponent that is -0.11. Iowa State in those 3 years average +1.2 YPP differential vs. opponent +0.08, and they were able to hang in games against Oklahoma. Despite being 6-4 this Iowa State team is better than the past 3 versions as they are +1.7 ypp differential vs an average opponent YPP diff of 0. They actually are better in every category except special teams than Baylor. Iowa State’s defense may not be as good particularly in the secondary, but Oklahoma is not the type of team right now that can beat you with their passing offense. They really lack any kind of explosive WR weapon, their WR drop far too many passes, and Iowa State is stout against the run ranking better than Baylor. This game is on the road, but this veteran group of Iowa State players have won here before, and have plenty of confidence. This is essentially their Super Bowl now that they can no longer get into the Big 12 Championship. |
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11-20-21 | Wake Forest +4.5 v. Clemson | 27-48 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
Wake Forest +4.5 1.1% Free |
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11-19-21 | Memphis +9.5 v. Houston | 13-31 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Memphis +9.5 3.3% play / Memphis +290 0.3% bonus Houston has literally nothing left to play for here. They have Uconn on deck, and are already in the AAC Championshpi game. Houston is a surprising 9-1, we faded them all the way back in week 1 against TExas Tech and it was their lone loss. Since then they have won games, but a closer look reveals this team could easily have 3. Against East Carolina they managed only 256 yards in OT loss and were -1.07 ypp. Memphis just lost last week to East Carolina at home and were +1.5 ypp in thier OT loss. They could have won the game, and went for 2 in OT, due to kicker issues, and that's why I am playing the ML. I doubt Memphis is going to attempt many Field Goals, and the variance would be that they win this game by converted 4th downs and red zone opportunities into 7 points. Memphis needs this game far more at 5-5 to get to 6 wins and go bowling. It's not like Memphis hasn't been in every single game this year. The only game they were blown out was UCF, and that's because they were missing QB Seth Henigan. This team beat a strong MIss STate team at home, they only lost by 3 to UTSA, and have been in every other game. Their core #'s of +0.9 YPP vs. an average opponents -0.366 differential are better than Houston's +0.9 vs. -0.82. Houston's offense may struggle here against a strong Memphis run defense. Houston ranks 54th in ypp, but vs. an average opponent ypp defense ranking 96.77. Their defense although has been dominant on the stat sheet has shown vulnerabilities at times. The only two offenses they faced on the season in the top 70 were Texas Tech, and SMU who they allowed 38 and 37 points. Both of those teams are pass first teams like Memphis, and Houston was recently seen giving up 42 points to South Florida. |
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11-13-21 | TCU +12 v. Oklahoma State | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
TCU +12 2.2% PLAY I gave out TCU spread and ML last week as they upset Baylor, and I think TCU stays in this game again. We have a nice little story brewing here with Jerry Kill taking over as HC for Gary Patterson, and you bet the team is going to play for Kill. Kill actually coached at the High School when Gundy played, and Gundy said Kill taught him Biology. Bottom line is TCU still has a top tier offense as we saw last week. They are balance they can run, pass, and are efficient at doing so maybe more efficient than any opponent that Oklahoma St has faced. Oklahoma State’s defense has been top tier, but against Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State who all have similar offenses to TCU, they gave up some points. Now they went 3-1 in those games, but should have lost to Texas. Oklahoma State’s offense is not great they rank 85th in ypp, and they rely heavily on the run 61% runs, while TCU has been awful against the run, they’re facing a team that ranks 80th in epa rush offense. There is really nothing that should scare you about Oklahoma State’s offense, and both teams run, and don’t run their offense at an incredibly fast pace, which means winning by 2 TD’s is going to be tough in my opinion. |
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11-13-21 | Arkansas -2.5 v. LSU | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show | |
Arkansas -2.5 3.3% play LSU just played the game of their lives in their Super Bowl against Alabama last week. LSU coaching staff is gone after the season, the team has depth issues, Orgeron is making weird comments, and now making a QB controversy that makes no sense. Max Johnson is hardly the problem here with 22 passing TD’s 6 INT, but Orgeron said he’s going let Garret Nussmeier playing time, because Garret wants to play. I think something has to do with Garret’s Daddy, Dallas Cowboys QB coach calling to say he wants his son playing. What the hell is going on? This is a trophy game for the Golden Boot, and Arkansas wants it back. Arkansas has a balanced offense they can run, they can throw, and their defense is better than LSU’s. LSU ranks 89th in epa run and 92nd epa pass. LSU struggled against a similar Ole Miss Defense that likes to drop guys back in coverage, and I have a feeling Garret Nussmeier will have a costly turnover in this game. This was a 3 point game last year, but Arkansas is vastly improved while LSU is far worse than a year ago. |
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11-13-21 | Arizona State v. Washington +6 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show | |
Washington +6 2.2% All year we have seen players and teams step up when there is turmoil on the coaching staff. Jimmy Lake suspended for striking a player, and Washington also fired their OC. We saw Washington St step up without their coaches, we saw TCU do it last week, and we saw USC do it as well. I think this is an excellent spot for Washington who has really nothing to lose in this game. Washington has bene in every game this year as 4 of their 5 losses have been by single digits. They are home here they play excellent red zone defense, and have a huge advantage in TO Margin, and it’s going to be a weather game. Expect 48 degrees and rain here, and Arizona State coming in where they just have not played well on the road. They are 1-2 this year, but 7-10 under Herman Edwards, and if you take out last year when they were 2-1m(no fans) they are actually 5-9! To me this is still a very soft team, and that does not bode well when you go on the road in bad weather conditions playing an angry team. When I say Arizona State is soft they had a Sr. CB come out to the media asking the media to be nice after what the media wrote in their loss to Washington State. Like are you freaking kidding me? Washington has edges on special teams and TO percentage per possession, and Arizona State’s home/away splits are not good. I think we are getting extra points with Washington given the situation, and I think Washington comes out with an outright upset. |
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11-13-21 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +2.5 | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show | |
Ole Miss +3 -120 3.5% Ole miss comes into the game with 2 losses just the same as A&M, but they are home dogs in a night game against #11 team. I like Ole Miss here in this spot. This is just A&M’s second true road game, the first one was against a hopeless Missouri team. They played two neutral sight games against Colorado, and the offense really struggled, and Arkansas losing 20-10. A&M has injury issues in their secondary that will probably finally hurt them here. They have freshman and sophomore’s playing and it’s in reality their first road game. They also have two freshman starting on the OL, which is not a great recipe when you face an aggressive defense like Ole Miss that ranks 5th in sack %, and rank 20th in defensive TO %. Texas A&M’s offense ranks 75th in offensive drives ending in a TO. Ole Miss also very good on third down defense and should be able to get the Aggies off the field. Aggies scored points of late, but 6 of their last 15 TD’s have come on defense, or special teams or short fields. Ole Miss 8th in TO %. I just don’t see the Aggies getting anything easy here in a night game with a Heisman Trophy candidate in Matt Corral. This could be his last chance to have the Heisman moment. To beat A&M’s defense you must have a balanced offense. Ole Miss clearly has that with Matt Corral at the helm. He is a mobile QB, but he can throw too and the offense has a legit rushing offense that ranks 8th in epa. Arkansas, a similar team overall to Ole Miss had a balanced rushing and passing attack and they really controlled that game on a neutral site against the Aggies beating them 20-10. |
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11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
South Carolina -1 3.3% play These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and although Missouri finally covered a spread last week it was against Georgia who honestly could not have been taking Missouri seriously and really played conservatively once they got a decent lead, and still Missouri only put up 6 points. South Carolina meanwhile looks to extend their momentum after beating Florida in dominating fashion. South Carolina is building something here, and I love the HC Beamer, and they want to get to a Bowl game. I can’t say that Missouri cares, I have seen multiple times this season where they had no effort. So the situation for me is with South Carolina. South Carolina has also played the tougher schedule, and have the better numbers with -0.3 ypp against an opponents with +0.73 ypp margin. Missouri comes in at -0.9 vs. opponent +0.26 ypp. South Carolina’s offense stepped up last week with their third string QB Jason Brown, really looked like the best passer for South Carolina, but it was the running game that got going. South Carolina gets to go up against a bad defense yet again this week as Missouri ranks 129th in epa run defense, and 98th in epa pass defense. South Carolina +4ppg averaging 27 vs. opponents with bad defenses. If Brown struggles for any reason, Beamer, said he’s got Zoland who is healthy enough to play. Missouri is really banged up, and could be without their starting QB Connor Bazulak, but either way I look for them to struggle vs. South Carolina team that shows effort the entire game. South Carolina ranks in top 50 in epa pass defense and epa run defense. Missouri’s offense has carried the team, but they have not faced many teams that are good at stopping the run and pass. Just two times it has happened and Missouri scored 6 and 14 points. The next best defense they faced was Boston College and they lost on the road in OT. |
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11-13-21 | Purdue v. Ohio State -20.5 | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 40 h 26 m | Show | |
Ohio St -20.5 2.2% play |
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11-13-21 | Georgia -20 v. Tennessee | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
Georgia -20 1% |
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11-13-21 | UAB +4.5 v. Marshall | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 40 h 17 m | Show |
UAB +4.5 5.5% NCAAF POD / UAB +170 1% bonus Marshall was my POD last Saturday over FAU, and it was an easy cover, but Marshall continued to give up rushing yards 47-243 yards, but luckily FAU, and their poor coaching staff bailed us out. That will not happen here as Bill Clark far better coach than Willie Taggart. UAB held Marshall to 268 yards in their own building last year and there really is not much difference between last year’s UAB vs. Marshall. Marshall was +1.4 vs. -0.6 ypp while UAB WAS +1.3 VS. -0.25. This year, UAB +1 VS. -0.35, AND Marshall +1.6 vs. -0.53. UAB also needs this game more as both sit at 4-1, UAB is trailing UTSA, and if they don’t win this game next week’s game won’t matter at all, while Marshall can afford to lose, and then beat Western Kentucky the last week of the season and win their division to get to the C-USA Championship. UAB also has the goods in a team that I want to back on the road. They have very good rushing offense ranked 10th in epa, they’re going against a Marshall defense that ranks 95th in ypc, and 93rd in epa run defense. They have a very good defense ranking 24th in ypp, and can force Marshall into third and longs to let their elite pass rush get after Marshall. They also rank 12th in defensive TO% per possession, while Marshall ranks 122nd on offense. I don’t think Marshall can play a clean game here, while UAB can. The biggest difference between this year and last year’s match up is Marshall seems to have forgotten how to stop the run. Last year’ steam ranked 6th in ypc defense, and gave up 216 yards to UAB, but this year’s defense ranks 95th. It’s not even because they have faced a tougher group of offenses. UAB’S ranked 64th in epa run offense last year, and this year they rank 10th. They ran for 127 yards at Georgia, which is the second most rushing yards Georgia has given up all year. I think the wrong team is favored here UAB wins outright! |
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11-13-21 | Miami-FL v. Florida State +2.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
Florida St +3 buy 1/2 3% play |
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11-13-21 | Central Florida +7.5 v. SMU | 28-55 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 46 m | Show | |
UCF +7 2-3% This spread is not adjusting for the last two weeks where UCF dominated Memphis, and Memphis just beat SMU, who has now lost back to back games. Their head coach is interviewing for P5 HC jobs and is probably out after this year, and they are now two games out of the AAC Championship, and have Cincinnati on deck. I like where UCF is trending they come into this game with identical YPP numbers to Memphis, against a tougher schedule +0.7ypp, vs. -0.225, compare to Memphis +0.7 vs. -0.43. SMU is +0.8 vs. -0.75. I backed UCF over Memphis 2 weeks ago, and I backed Memphis over SMU last week so I have to back UCF over SMU here with it being +7. The match up is a bit different than the game last week as SMU goes up against a top tier passing defense instead of a good run defense, but overall, UCF is a far better defense than Memphis. They are far better vs. the pass, which is what SMU likes to do the most. UCF also 22nd in % of possessions ending in TO’s on defense, while SMU has been turning the ball over ranking 85th in TO%. SMU really struggled last week without their SR Center Allan Ali, who is out again this week, and they’ll likely be without their most dynamic RB Bentley who came back soon last week. UCF’s got some dudes on that defensive line and rank 34th in sack %. SMU played their first two defenses in the top 50 the last two weeks and lost both games. I could see the same happening this week. UCF also wants to run the ball, it shortens the game, they don’t play nearly as fast as Memphis and I don’t think that’s being taken into consideration here. I think that gives us more value in the #. SMU’s defense has been great against the run, which is the strength of UCF’s offense, but a closer look reveals they have played only two top 50 rushing offenses, and UCF is the best ranking 28th when we average ypc, and epa rush offense. The average rank of the other rushing offenses faced is 90.6. TCU ran for 170 yards 5.67ypc, SMU won that game, but TCU’s defense is awful. North Texas outside top 50 in EPA, but inside top 50 in rushing ypc, ran for 125. UCF brings the best defense that SMU has faced all year, as well as the best rushing offense. That is value at +7. |
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11-13-21 | East Carolina +5.5 v. Memphis | 30-29 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show | |
East Carolina +5 2.2% play |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show | |
Pitt -6.5 2.2% play |
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11-06-21 | Florida v. South Carolina +18.5 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 43 h 45 m | Show | |
South Carolina +18.5 3.3% play This is far too many points in my opinion as Florida really does not have a ton of motivation the week after Georgia and being a 4 loss team. They also are on the road facing a South Carolina team off the bye, and a South Carolina team that does play good defense, and has faced the tougher schedule. There has not been a meeting between these two decided by more than 14 points since 2012. Both teams play slow, which should keep the clock ticking, and Dan Mullen has shown he is fine playing conservatively on the road. South Carolina will get Zeb Noland starting here at QB he’s been their best option, but I think they may actually be able to get the running game going. They average over a yard more per carry at home, and Florida has had major issues in run defense at times this year ranking 64th in ypc they have allowed 2.02 ypc more on the road than at home. So that’s likely the route South Carolina takes in this game in my opinion while they have struggled running the ball they have faced an average run defense ranking 45th in ypc. South Carolina’s defense has been a top 50 unit ranking 46th vs. the run, and even better at home and 25th in epa pass defense. They have allowed 1 passing TD and 6 INT’s at home this year, so I don’t expect Dan Mullen to pass very often here on the road especially since his QB’s have had TO issues with 9 INT in 4 road games they are -5 TO Margin on the road, while South Carolina is +3. Expect a conservative game for Florida here that gets them the win, but South Carolina at 4-4 is fighting for bowl eligibility off a bye and have played very hard for Beamer. This is also a night game at home for South Carolina and we can expect 75,000+. |
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11-06-21 | Boise State +5.5 v. Fresno State | 40-14 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Boise +5 2.2% play |
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11-06-21 | Marshall -1 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 41 h 15 m | Show |
Marshall -1.5 5.5% NCAAF MAX POD Florida Atlantic is over rated, and they have an over rated head coach in Willie Taggart. Marshall’s DC Lance Guidry was also the safeties coach at FAU last seasons and is very familiar with the Owls’ defensive personnel. FAU offensive numbers are bull shit. They average 30.3 ppg on the season, and 44.75ppg have come in their 4 games against shitty defenses. An fcs foe, and 3 defenses that rank 119th, 118th, and 127th in yards per play. Marshall ranks 24th in that category. Against top ypp defenses FAU is 1-3, and scoring only 15.75ppg. Last week they scored 28 vs. UTEP, which looks great, but it’s misleading thus giving us value in this spot with Marshall. FAU pulled off the upset, but they were outgained 436 to 279 in the game. Marshall has a huge advantage on the defensive line ranking 6th in pressure rank while FAU Ranks 113th in protecting their QB. Against the top 2 pressure rate defenses, Air Force & UAB, FAU scored a total of 21 points, and N’kosi Perry had 1 passing TD and 4 INT’s. Marshall has had turnover issues, and that’s really the story here, and while FAU has been able to force turnovers, I don’t see Marshall having issues, because they are going up against arguably the worst run defense they have faced all year. FAU ranks 107th in epa run defense, 102nd in defensive ypc. Very similar to FIU team that they beat 38-0 last week. FIU also had a good running team, and Marshall who had been struggling to stop the run seemed to fix the issues in their bye really holding FIU in check to 108 yards on 31 carries and 0 points. Marshall’s offense had 10 rushing TD’s in their last two games while scoring 49 and 38 points. FAU is not going to be able to stop the run, and Grant Wells is fully capable of passing the ball, while FAU ranks 111th at getting pressure. Marshall has dominated their trips into the state of Florida over the past decade and it is very important that they continue that as they recruit a ton of players from the state. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | 28-31 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 59 m | Show | |
Arkansas -4 2.2% play Arkansas comes into this game well rested, and well prepared, and the style of defense they play should give Miss State’s pass offense issues. They had 3 int’s in last year’s game and this defense is much improved, they are 34th in epa pass defense, 20th in QB rating defense, 35th ins uccess rate defense, and they are only allowing 31.25% conversions on third downs, and 42% of red zone trips at home to end in a TD. On the flip side Miss State’s defense has been stout, but they are now on the road facing a fresh team that can run the ball and pass, and have a dual threat QB who can score in the red zone. Arkansas is the far more balanced team, and they are hungry for an SEC win. They also get the extra time to come up with a plan and study the route tree of Mike Leach’s offense, which is always an advantage for an opposing defense. It’s very similar to facing the triple option, you aren’t used to seeing it but when you do have extra time it’s a benefit, and I don’t think it’s being calculated into the number. Barry Odom’s defense also plays 3 DL and drops guys in coverage so if they can force some TO’s again they win this game by 7. Part of the reason Miss State beat Kentucky was they forced 4 turnovers, but Arkansas ranks 10th in offensive possession TO%. |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show | |
Purdue +3 3.3% play Michigan State off a huge come from behind win against their rival Michigan and they are 8-0 maybe looking ahead on their schedule past Purdue? I love the match up here and we saw struggles from Michigan State on the road against Rutgers it was a 14-13 game late in the 2nd quarter before Michigan State’s WR Nailor hit them with a 65 yard reception. In fact Rutgers gave up 63, 65, and 63 yard TD’s to Nailor and a 94 yard run. Purdue is 9th in 10+ yard plays allowed, and rank 11th in epa pass defense, and Nailor is ? for this game. They went on the road to face Indiana, and were outgained, but came away with the 20-15 win, because Indiana could not score in the red zone. Purdue could have much of the same issues that Indiana had, but I think Purdue’s offense which is pass heavy matches up well against the weakness of Michigan State, which is their pass defense. Michigan State ranks 113th in 10+ yard passing plays allowed while Purdue ranks 12th in 10+ yard passing plays. I think David Bell has a big game, and Purdue just got back Sr. veteran Anthrop to add some depth. Purdue 19-7 ATS last 26 as a dog, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 as a home dog, the dog is 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings, and Purdue already proven they can win these big games against ranked opponents as they knocked off Iowa on the road with ease. We were on that game and we are on Purdue here. |
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11-06-21 | Baylor v. TCU +7 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show | |
TCU +7 -120 2% play / TCU +210 1% PLAY TCU fired Gary Patterson, but offered him to finish the season and he declined. However, he has been around practice helping with the defense, and Jerry Kill takes over as HC who has been here before. I see him trying to get a win for his dear friend GP. Plenty of talent still on TCU, and they’re a TD home dog in a rivalry game where the dog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two. TCU still has a top 25 offense, and while Baylor’s defense has been great they really have only played Iowa State who had a top 30 pass and run offense. Iowa State put up 29 points and nearly doubled Baylor in yards, but still lost at Baylor. Actually, the only top offenses that Baylor has faced they have done so at home winning 38-24 over BYU, 31-29 over Iowa State, 31-24 over Texas, trailed 21-10 in the third quarter. I see no reason why TCU can’t rally to beat an undefeated Baylor who could be looking ahead to Oklahoma next week at home. TCU really has nothing to lose, and this is a Baylor defense that allowed Texas State who ranks 118th in ypp to score 20 points. Baylor has not really played anyone on the road and their only loss came on the road at Oklahoma St. |
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11-06-21 | Auburn +4.5 v. Texas A&M | 3-20 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Auburn +4.5 2.2% play Exactly who has Texas AM beat other than the big win against Alabama in which they were out gained by over 140 yards? Kent State (-1.1 YPP), Colorado (-2.3 YPP), New Mexico (-1.4 YPP), Missouri (-0.6 YPP), and South Carolina (-0.6 YPP), Alabama (+1.7 ypp) and they lost to Arkansas and Miss State (+0.1). The Alabama win was certainly impressive, but they were out gained in that game. Their average opponent YPP differential is -0.4. Auburn meanwhile is +0.9, against a challenign schedule of opponents +0.28. Auburn has very quietly been playing great football and nobody is talking about it. They lost 34-10 to Georgia, but if Bo Nix receivers don’t drop those balls it could have been a completely different game. Maybe nobody is talking about it, because there is no Gus Malzahn coaching controversy? Bo Nix has played extremely well on the road this year and he’s not getting any credit. Possibly the best thing Bryan Harsin has done as a HC was bench Nix against Georgia State. The drops his receivers had earlier in the year seem to have faded, Bo Nix footwork has dramatically improved and he gets another opportunity to prove people wrong. From a statistical perspective Auburn is the better offense and has faced the tougher schedule. Nothing wrong with losing at Penn State in a white out, but being in that game late, and losing to Georgia at home. I think the Aggies are getting far too much credit for that win over Alabama. This Texas A&M is nothing special, and while Zach Calzada has played better of late, he’s still nothing special completing just 55.3% of his passes, 6.6 yards per pass attempt 12 TD / 7 INT ratio. Aggies rank 77th in % of offensive possessions ending in a TO, while Auburn ranks 17th. I think these teams are pretty even, and the game will go down to the wire. A&M’s defense has been mostly a wall, but where they have shown vulnerabilities is in their run defense specifically against mobile QB’s, which Bo Nix is. Colorado’s Lewis had 76 rushing yards, KJ Jefferson had 50 in their 20-10 win, Kent State’s Crum had 60. Nix the last two years has run the ball 23 times for 87 yards against A&M. Nothing special, but the difference is he has developed as a passer, and that adds another dynamic to this game. Bo Nix is clearly the better QB here. I don’t really see this glaring edge that A&M has in the game other than they have a bye, and they beat Alabama. You could say Auburn dominated Arkansas while Arkansas dominated Texas A&M. Auburn won’t be phased by the environment at night at A&M. They have gone into Death Valley and came back and won, played extremely well at Penn State in a white out, and won in front of 73K fans at Arkansas 38-23. |
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11-06-21 | SMU v. Memphis +5 | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show | |
Memphis +4.5 SMU off a dream crushing loss against Houston as they gave up a 100 yard kickoff return for a TD. Still we have over 70% of the action on SMU here against a 4 loss Memphis team that’s off a bye +1 extra day. QB Seth Henigan is still ? here with a hand injury, but I think he will go, but if he doesn’t, Memphis will definitely have a better game plan for the dual threat Parish in this game, and he’ll get to go up against a pass defense that ranks 117th in epa compared to UCF who ranked 28th. SMU was undefeated, and now they need help to get into the AAC Championship game. I think they are a bit over rated when you consider their opponent average ypp differential is -1.01, and they are only +0.8 ypp. Compare that with Memphis who is +1 ypp vs. -0.5. Memphis YPP differential is better than Houston’s. SMU also needs to be able to run the ball on the road in order to win. They average just 2 ypc against Houston, and last year in their losses they averaged 2.79 ypc compared to over 5 in their wins, and in 2019 they average over a yard less in their losses than their wins. Memphis defensive strength is their run defense, and they haeld both Navy and Texas San Antonio’s running games in check at the Liberty Bowl. Navy ran 65 times for just 198 yards, while UTSA ran 62 for 205. SMU obviously passes the ball more, but I like Memphis with the extra week to prepare to come in with a good game plan, and I think their offense will be able to score some points against a defense that ranks 90th in YPP, and that is coming against an average offensive opponent ranking 87th. Memphis ranks 30th. I think UCF is better than SMU, and I think Memphis is better than Houston. Tons of value here at +4. |
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11-06-21 | Ohio State v. Nebraska +14.5 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show | |
Nebraska +14.5 1.1% play Buy low situation on Nebraska. If you take away the name, and look at the stats Nebraska should not be a 14.5 point dog at home. They are +1.7 ypp against an opponent ypp diff of +0.125. Oregon is +1.3 against +0.11. Ohio State ranks 10th in rushing ypc defense, but they have faced an average rush ypc ranked 82. The two teams that were good at running the ball scored 31 and 35 points against them in Oregon and Minnesota. Adrian Martinez has to play his best game and avoid the turnovers for Nebraska to win this game, and possibly save Scott Frost’s job. Ohio State has shown some weaknesses over the season. They have struggled against mobile QB’s, Anthony Brown had 10 carries for 65 yards. Martinez is better at running the ball, and Nebraska has never had issues running the ball on Ohio State the last two years. Ohio State also has had trouble guarding TE’s and the middle of the field. Nebraska’s Austin Allen should have a big game here. Nebraska ranks 26th in epa run defense. Ohio State really struggled on OL vs. Penn State running the ball in the red zone as they went 1-6. Nebraska has been very good in red zone defense especially at home where they have held opponents to just 38%. There are a lot of great things at play here to think that Nebraska will stay in this game. They have lost 6 games, but all six have been by single digits with 4 of those 6 on the road. They’re at home here, and will have a chance to pull of a major upset. We should get max effort from Nebraska. |
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11-06-21 | Army +2.5 v. Air Force | 21-14 | Win | 101 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
Army +3 -115 2.5% play Low total here and the total has gone under 39-9-1 the last 49 meetings. This game will be on a neutral field in Arlington Texas. I think that will help Army as they won’t have to travel to play at elevation, which they typically had problems with in the past when traveling on the road to face Air Force. I think Jeff Monken has sort of figured out Air Force, and Army has taken 3 of the last 4 meetings, and the last 4 have been decided by 3, 4, 3 pts. Looking at the past 3 match ups between these two I don’t really see any glaring difference that would allow Air Force to win this one going away. Army has faced a far tougher schedule, and while they are off 3 straight losses, that’s giving us extra value here. The last three games were against Ball State, last year’s MAC Champion, Wisconsin, and Wake Forest, the #9 team in the country. They also played all 3 teams tight, and had to do it without their leading rusher, and QB Christian Anderson. It’s no surprise that 5 turnovers happened over those 3 games. Anderson has been practicing and will play against Air Force. Last year Anderson rushed 18 times for 85 yards vs. Air Force, and in 2019 he missed the game and Army lost. Haazig Daniels is not 100% and is questionable, but will likely go at QB for Air Force, and last year he threw 3 interceptions against Army. Army’s defense looks worse than last year overall, but I think some of that relates to the strength of competition. They have faced two top 10 ypp offenses already. This will be an entertaining game, and if Air Force wins they’ll get the Commander-N-Chief Trophy, but I trust Jeff Monken. Air Force had and extra week to prepare last year and lost 7-10, in 2017 Monken had an extra week to prepare and they beat Air force 21-0. Both teams come into the game with extra time and I think Monken is the better coach. Army has outgained Air force by over 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 match ups and are +5 TO margin. |
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11-02-21 | Miami-OH v. Ohio +7 | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show | |
Ohio +7 2.2% play |
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10-30-21 | Virginia +2.5 v. BYU | 49-66 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 4 m | Show | |
Virginia +2.5 3.3% play Bronco Mendenhall return to Prov where spent more than a decade coaching BYU. Mendenhall only left, because he wanted the University to join the Big 12 and not remain Independent. Now BYU is going to the Big 12. Whether he holds any animosity, I don’t know, but I know that BYU was near and dear to his heart and had family who played for the BYU. This game clearly will mean a bit extra to him. BYU is ranked, but I don’t think they are quite as good. They’re getting a ton of credit for their 4-0 record vs. the PAC12, but this is a different type of match up against Virginia who has arguably the best QB in the nation in Brennan Armstron, and they are playing FAST, ranking 27th at 23.4 seconds per play. BYU’s pass defense has shown vulnerabilities, and they really have not played anybody that passes the ball 65% of the time so I expect this will be a bit of a culture shock. Washington State passes 58% of the time but BYU got them the week after their HC was fire and they only won by 2. Washington State also plays slow, offering BYU plenty of time to regroup defensively. Baylor who put 38 points up on BYU, also plays very slow, Utah, Arizona State also very slow. This will be a big challenge for BYU’s defense, as Virginia is 15th in success rate, 18th in epa run offense, 13th in epa passing offense. Virginia is also #1 in the nation in 10+ and 20+ yard plays while BYU is 105th in allowing 10+ yard plays. Virginia’s defense has been bad, because of their offense, but they have been great in red zone defense allowing just 44% TD’s. If they can avoid the big plays here, and I think they can do a better job than they have, because Bronco is very familiar with this coaching staff that was here under him, and he recruited Jaren Hall. Virginia is flying under the radar and so is their QB Brennan Armstrong. They have a bye after this game, and a lot to prove in my opinion and I expect them to win this game outright. |
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10-30-21 | North Carolina +3.5 v. Notre Dame | 34-44 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
North Carolina +3.5 3.3% play This is the first game North Carolina is not a favorite this year and while it has been a very disappointing year they get a chance here off the bye to have some positive momentum by going into Notre Dame and winning. This is not the same Notre Dame team as last year as they rank 96th in ypp, and North Carolina’s defense is actually improved compared to last year’s unit. They rank 60th in ypp against an average opponent ypp offense 57. Compare that to last year’s North Carolina defense ranking 70th, vs an avy ypp off 72. North Carolina’s offense has taken a step back, but they are playing with no pressure here. They’re not expected to win, and I think they can have some success. This is by far the best offense Notre Dame has faced to date, and we have seem some vulnerabilities this season with this defense. They were actually outgained last week vs. USC, they gave up 291 passing yards to Purdue, 297 to Cinci, and 299 to USC. Now they have to play without Kyle Hamilton, a consensus top 10 pick in the NFL draft next year. Notre Dame held USC to 16 points, but North Carolina runs a different offense with 13% more runs in their RPO heavy attack. North Carolina also off the bye, and should be putting all their effort into this game. They had an extra week to prepare in last year 17-31 loss, but so did Notre Dame, and Notre Dame was undefeated. Here Notre Dame is off their rivalry game with USC, and they just aren’t the same team. I think this will be a tight game and North Carolina will have a chance to win the game outright. At worse they have a chance for the backdoor cover late. |