10-06-14 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Washington Redskins +8 |
|
27-17 |
Loss |
-125 |
18 h 24 m |
Show
|
|
10-05-14 |
NY Jets +7 v. San Diego Chargers |
Top |
0-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 53 m |
Show
|
Jets/Chargers 4:25: Chargers are rolling under HC McCoy who has QB Rivers playing exceptionally well while Ryan and the Jets are the polar opposite. Jets QB Smith remains a turnover machine and the Jets' secondary is disappointing. However, NY is in a good spot here: they get C Dee Millner back and that will help correct some secondary trouble. Furthermore, the Jets can be more creative in their blitz schemes coming in to this game with the best run-stop-unit in the NFL (64 YPG) and disrupt immobile QB Rivers' timing with his talented receiving corps. And SD does not run the ball well (2.4 YPC). Jets are 7-3 ATS in October under Ryan, and sport a 6-2 ATS mark in this series, including 4-1 ATS at San Diego. SD is just 2-6 ATS in October, 1-4 ATS in Week 5 nd 1-5-1 ATS after scoring 30+ the previous week. With the dog at 5-1 ATS in this series, we'll look for NY to get their strong run game going and keep it competitive.
|
10-05-14 |
Houston Texans +7 v. Dallas Cowboys |
|
17-20 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
Texans/Cowboys 1:00: Cowboys turned in strong game last week but can't trust them here; after all, Garrett is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite off a SU win. Houston, on the other hand, is 4-0 ATS on the road against a non-division opponent off a SU dog win. The Cowboys are thin defensively, especially at LB and their C Claiborne is out. Sure, Fitzpatrick threw 5 INTs over his last two games but the Texans' ground game with RB Foster should help. We'll look for Watt and company to keep the Cowboys' strong run game at bay and continue to be opportunistic creating turnovers. Texans the call.
|
10-05-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
17-9 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 31 m |
Show
|
|
10-05-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 |
Top |
31-37 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
Buccaneers/Saints 1:00: Saints remain a poor road team yet flourish at home and should get back on track here. Saints' offense less turnover prone in the Superdome and Brees, with his talented receiving corps, should shred the TB defense. At the same time, Rob Ryan should correct the defensive flaws that plagued them for the first quarter of this season. The Saints in games 5 through 8 are 8-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss against a team below .500. Saints are 4-1 ATS in this series including the 41-17 whitewash last year here. TB defense should revert back to their crappy performance at Atlanta in the third week than what they did last week against the underachieving Steelers. Saints the call.
|
10-02-14 |
Minnesota Vikings +9 v. Green Bay Packers |
|
10-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
09-29-14 |
New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 |
|
14-41 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
09-28-14 |
New Orleans Saints -3 v. Dallas Cowboys |
|
17-38 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
09-28-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4 |
Top |
21-26 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 55 m |
Show
|
Eagles/49ers 4:25: 49ers dug themselves in a hole with back-to-back 4th quarter collapses but we'll look for them to straighten things out here. SF is 7-1 ATS as favorites off a SU favorite loss in September. And Harbaugh sports a sweet 8-1 ATS mark as a home favorite vs an opponent off a division game. The Eagles' defense has its share of flaws and the 49ers should get their run game back up to speed with Gore and company. Philly is a mere 2-10-1 ATS after allowing 350+ yards the previous week. SF has its share of injuries and problems defensively; however, their team discipline remains strong and should recover well here. SF has responded to adversity well under Harbaugh with a sweet 24-8-3 ATS mark off an ATS loss and we'll back him and the 49ers again here. SF 4-0 ATS in week 4 while the Eagles are 0-5 ATS in week 4. SF the call.
|
09-28-14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. San Diego Chargers -12.5 |
|
14-33 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 4 m |
Show
|
Jaguars/Chargers 4:05: Line value with Chargers after back to back impressive performances at home vs incumbent World Champion Seattle and then delivering an outstanding performance at Buffalo. I see the Chargers continuing their strong effort here. In the month of September, SD is a sweet 9-1 ATS as a .500 or greater team as a favorite over a less than .500 team. Sure, SD will be without Woodhead and Matthews, but Don Brown should fill the RB role well. QB Rivers is having a terrific year and should torch a Jaguars' defense that's allowing 466 yards a game! On the defensive side, LB Te'o (foot) will be missed but Kavell Connor is a capable replacement and will fill the role well. As for the Jaguars' QB Bortles taking over the starting role, he did well late in the game last week; however, that was in garbage time with the game clearly out of reach and all but officially over. Today, we'll look for that Chargers' defense to confuse the #1 pick and force him into mistakes early. Jaguars have been outscored in this series (last 3) by a 22.3 ppg margin and so far this season been virtually non-competitive. SD the call.
|
09-28-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -7 |
|
27-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
|
09-25-14 |
NY Giants +4 v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
45-14 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 51 m |
Show
|
Giants/Redskins 8:25: Hard to dismiss the Giants as a contender and certainly when they started revving it up. Manning has finally gotten in rhythm in the new offense and the run game is producing behind RB Rashad Jennings. As a matter of fact, NY is a sweet 40-17-2 ATS after accumulating 150+ rushing yards the previous week. Sure, the Redskins' offense is explosive with QB Cousins and company racking up big numbers; however, Giants have bolstered their secondary this year with Rodgers-Cromartie and Amukamara; moreover, we're going to look for the NYG' defensive line to pressure Cousins to force mistakes. And with 17 injuries listed on Washington's roster, the short week should take its toll. The Giants are feeling pretty good off their win at home vs the Texans. And New York is a strong 8-1 ATS vs their division off back-to-back home games. They also post a 5-1 ATS Thursday night mark. We'll look for New York to be competitive here as the Redskins have trouble enacting double revenge.
|
09-22-14 |
Chicago Bears v. NY Jets -2.5 |
|
27-19 |
Loss |
-110 |
19 h 31 m |
Show
|
Bears/Jets 8:30: Bears were fortunate to put together a miraculous fourth quarter rally last week but shouldn't be so fortunate this week. Jets are hungry for a win after a late breakdown in GB. Jets have the tools needed in this matchup: strong run game with Ivory and Chris Johnson that should run roughshod over a Bears' run-stop-unit allowing a generous 5.4 YPC. In addition, Bears' defensive starters: CB Tillman, DL Ratliff and S Conte are on the rack softening an already soft defense. And Geno Smith did play well the last time he was on prime time Monday -- with 199 yards passing and 3 TD passes last October AT Atlanta. On the other hand, the Bears' run game not productive at under 3 YPC; consequently, we'll look for the strong Jets' run-stop-unit to pin their ears back and attack Cutler with a variety of blitzes. Rex Ryan is 6-0 ATS at home off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU win. Also, he is 8-1 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Jets should move to 5-1 ATS in week 3.
|
09-21-14 |
San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Arizona Cardinals |
|
14-23 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
09-21-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. Buffalo Bills -1 |
|
22-10 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
09-21-14 |
Indianapolis Colts -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
Top |
44-17 |
Win
|
103 |
2 h 43 m |
Show
|
Colts/Jaguars 1:00: The Jags have not been a good home team at 1-5 ATS and face an angry Colts team that let one slip away Monday vs Philadelphia. Indianapolis is 10-1 ATS off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS vs division foes. Jacksonville has yet to cover this game in three attempts and I don't see it happening here. Jacksonville has problems with their offensive line and Gus Bradley went with a quick fix in reshuffling it for today. Chad Henne is not comfortable in the pocket and RB Gerhart (8 yards rushing on 7 carries) is not helping. We'll look for the Colts' defense, which has come off playing two explosive offenses to settle in and lock down a Marcedes Lewis (injured) less Jaguars' offense. And throw in that second leading receiver Marqise Lee (hamstring) is out, the Jaguars should significantly help the Colts' defense shine. We'll look for ultra competitive Andrew Luck to atone for last Monday's costly interception late in the game. Luck has a relatively healthy receiving corps and should pick apart the shaky Jaguars secondary. Colts the call.
|
09-21-14 |
Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -10 |
Top |
9-20 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
Vikings/Saints 1:00: It will be difficult for the Vikings to compete at this strong venue today. Vikings not filling the void at RB for Peterson and that should create more problems for QB Matt Cassel today. The Saints' defense should be much more improved in their first home game and the noisy crowd should help. Offensively, QB Brees should be at his best here against a Vikings' defense left exposed last week against New England. And although Zimmer is excellent strategizing on the defensive side of the ball, the Vikings are work in progress in a number of areas and New Orleans' HC Payton should exploit them. New Orleans is 35-16 ATS at home and hungry for their first win. We'll look for a big one.
|
09-18-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 45 |
|
14-56 |
Win
|
100 |
19 h 60 m |
Show
|
|
09-15-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Indianapolis Colts -3 |
|
30-27 |
Loss |
-107 |
19 h 45 m |
Show
|
Eagles/Colts 8:35: Still question marks in that Eagles' defense and how the offensively challenged Jaguars moved the ball with relative ease on them in the first half. Tonight, Andrew Luck and company will pose a much stiffer challenge. And the Colts should get T.Y. Hilton involved in the vertical passing game for Luck as well. On the other hand, the Colts' defense is more disciplined and stingier than its counterpart. And the Colts are a sweet 10-0 ATS off a loss and 12-4 ATS at home. And throw in that Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS as MNF favorites of more than 2 points and I like them here.
|
09-14-14 |
NY Jets v. Green Bay Packers -7 |
|
24-31 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
09-14-14 |
Seattle Seahawks v. San Diego Chargers +6 |
|
21-30 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
09-14-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Cleveland Browns +7 |
|
24-26 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
09-14-14 |
Detroit Lions v. Carolina Panthers -2.5 |
|
7-24 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
Lions/Panthers 1:00: Like the Panthers who last week went in to Tampa Bay without Cam Newton and took care of business. Their defense remains rock solid with LB Kuechly making plays all over the field. The Panthers earned three takeaways yet remained solid offensively with back up Anderson at the helm. Today, with Newton back in the fold, the Panthers possess arguably the best backfield in the NFL and should move the ball on Detroit. I don't think the Lions are as good as they appeared last week and will be tested on the road; after all, their offensive line is depleted and Carolina brings some thunder along the defensive front. Lions are a mere 3-8 ATS on the road and just 6-17-3 ATS after scoring 30+. And throw in that they're 3-9-1 ATS in Week 2. Panthers, 6-1 ATS home run, should deliver.
|
09-11-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 |
|
6-26 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
Steelers/Ravens 8:25: This series has been close with the dog getting the best of it; however, we'll look for the 0-1 Ravens to bounce back. They showed promise last week with flashes of strength in the second half; moreover, it's less likely the Ravens' receivers will drop six balls like they did last week. And RB Justin Forsett established himself as a capable RB after Bernard Pierce struggled. We'll look for QB Flacco, who is 11-1 SU in September to get back in to a groove with more help from Torrey and Steve Smith. The Steelers, on the other hand, didn't look sharp in the second half last week -- especially defensively. Pittsburgh is 3-7 ATS after allowing 350+ yards previously. We'll roll with Baltimore.
|
09-08-14 |
San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals |
|
17-18 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 49 m |
Show
|
|
09-08-14 |
NY Giants +7 v. Detroit Lions |
|
14-35 |
Loss |
-130 |
4 h 59 m |
Show
|
|
09-07-14 |
San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Dallas Cowboys |
|
28-17 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 26 m |
Show
|
49ers/Cowboys 4:25: Cowboys' defense should remain uncoordinated under overrated coach Marinelli. And on the offensive side of the ball, now NFL retread Linehan was hand picked by Jery Jones to piss off HC Garrett and last year's play caller Callahan. We'll look for the stability and structure of San Francisco's organization to pull through here. Harbaugh, 13-2 ATS on the road in non division games, still has Brooks and Willis defensively to anchor a strong defense despite dealing with off field issues to personnel. And Kaepernick and Gore have the surrounding talent offensively to get the offense generated against a Dallas defense void of Sean Lee, Ware and Hatcher. We'll roll with SF.
|
09-07-14 |
Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
20-14 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
09-07-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons +3 |
|
34-37 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
09-07-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens -1.5 |
Top |
23-16 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 49 m |
Show
|
Bengals/Ravens 1:00: After a mediocre campaign last season, I'm looking for Baltimore to come out firing. New OC Kubiak should infuse some life in the sputtering offense of last year. A more experienced offensive line, bolstered receiving corps including the acquisition of Steve Smith should get them rolling. And defensively, they added some talent through the draft to add to the experience of veterans Dumervil, Suggs and Ngata. In Week 1, the Bengals are just 1-4-1 ATS as opposed to 5-1 ATS for the Ravens. And let's not forget that Flacco is 11-0 ATS at home in September. We'll roll with Baltimore.
|
09-04-14 |
Green Bay Packers +6 v. Seattle Seahawks |
|
16-36 |
Loss |
-108 |
44 h 31 m |
Show
|
Packers/Seahawks 8:30: I'm a huge Pete Carroll fan and surely rode the Seahawks to prominence last season, including my only 5* of the year -- Super Bowl -- Seattle (+2') in their blow out win; however, I'm going to take the points here. I know the 12 man can be deafening and the Seahawks' defense is the best in the NFL; nevertheless, QB Aaron Rodgers is healthy along with his receiving corps; moreover, RB Lacy established a legitimate run game last year and although doesn't have the best O Line to run behind, the receiver skill set and Rodgers can surely take the heat off him in quick sets and five and seven step drops. Defensively, the Packers get Clay Matthews healthy, and the addition of Julius Peppers will keep QBs on the alert. Moreover, the Packers' cover guys are respectable. And with the respect to the well disciplined Seahawks' defense and productive offense, I believe the Packers can cover. They covered three of the last four in this series and play Thursday nights tough at 4-1 ATS. They've also covered 5 of their last 7 season openers. We'll grab the points.
|
02-02-14 |
Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos |
Top |
43-8 |
Win
|
100 |
146 h 0 m |
Show
|
Seahawks/Broncos 6:30: Didn't take long to determine winner here; after all, I had Seattle at -1 as the real line before the Peyton Manning affect went into play and the line posted Denver as the favorite while the public bought into it and drove it up to -3. Seattle's played a tougher schedule with two victories over SF and New Orleans. And the Seattle defense has been outstanding against passing teams. They have a defensive front that can get after opposing QBs without bringing backers or secondary. Albeit Peyton Manning is great, he still is one dimensional and doesn't possess a running threat like Russell Wilson does. Seattle's got a ball hawking secondary and extremely well disciplined under Carroll. And throw in Marshawn Lynch, who usually does his best work when the lights shine the brightest; moreover, Percy Harvin is a game breaker and must be accounted for offensively, which gives Seattle a triple threat and difficult task for Denver to handle. Furthermore, the Seahawks have the special teams edge and that can surely be another deciding factor. We're going to look for Denver to flame out here and for the Seahawks to deliver.
|
01-19-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -3 |
|
17-23 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
01-19-14 |
New England Patriots +5.5 v. Denver Broncos |
|
16-26 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 32 m |
Show
|
|
01-12-14 |
San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos |
|
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
01-12-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Carolina Panthers |
Top |
23-10 |
Win
|
105 |
3 h 29 m |
Show
|
|
01-11-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots OVER 50.5 |
|
22-43 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
|
01-11-14 |
New Orleans Saints +10 v. Seattle Seahawks |
|
15-23 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
01-05-14 |
San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Green Bay Packers |
|
23-20 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
01-05-14 |
San Diego Chargers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
|
27-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 46 m |
Show
|
Chargers/Bengals 1:05: I like how QB Rivers is playing this year. He's been thriving under Mike McCoy and should step up his playoff performance, which has been mediocre going in to this one. SD has won 5 of their last 6 games, including tough road victories at KC and at Denver. I understand their a warm weather team but they've left the Norv Turner EST subpar performances behind and have learned to win on the road and in Eastern Standard Time regions going 2-2-1 ATS. Chargers defense is underrated. They can create turnovers, disrupt inconsistent Dalton and limit the Bengals' scoring. Keep in mind that Bengals' Marvin Lewis has been a big loser in the playoffs 0-4 SU/ATS. Chargers will not be intimidated and looking to avenge Dec 1st loss in which they were extremely competitive. Road team 6-1 ATS in this series and I'm rolling with San Diego.
|
01-04-14 |
New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
|
26-24 |
Win
|
102 |
8 h 17 m |
Show
|
|
01-04-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts +2 |
|
44-45 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-13 |
Kansas City Chiefs +10.5 v. San Diego Chargers |
|
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 3 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-13 |
Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons +7 |
|
21-20 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-13 |
NY Jets +7.5 v. Miami Dolphins |
|
20-7 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 24 m |
Show
|
|
12-29-13 |
Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
Top |
17-34 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 6 m |
Show
|
Ravens/Bengals 1:00: Value with the Ravens, which are still in the playoff hunt. Baltimore is coming off a blowout loss to NE but history has it they respond well in these situations. Harbaugh sports a 4-0 SU/ATS mark in the game following a defeat of 20+. On the other hand, Cincy's HC Marvin Lewis sports an unsightly 0-5 ATS mark at home against a division opponent off a double-digit SU loss. Ravens, which have made the playoffs in each of the last five years, are not going away without a good fight here.
|
12-23-13 |
Atlanta Falcons v. San Francisco 49ers -13 |
|
24-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
Falcons/49ers 8:40: Falcons have been a major underachiever this year and likely would have a shot if it weren't for Arizona shocking Seattle yesterday. Now, the 49ers are forced to win to secure a playoff spot and won't pull any punches. Atlanta has been more opportunistic over the last three games -- creating 11 turnovers; however, SF has polished their offensive game and tightened on the defensive end. I didn't like the fact that Atlanta was outgained 476-242 last week at Washington despite pulling out victory. They won't have that luxury tonight at Candlestick where SF has gotten their offensive rhythm back. And Atlanta's QB Ryan has tossed 12 INT on the road with a poor run game and won't have an easy time against the stingy 49ers defense. 49ers are 19-9-1 ATS at home, 26-9-1 ATS on grass and 22-5 ATS on Monday nights. Atlanta has struggled in SF at 2-6 ATS and should fade late here. 49ers should pound Gore against the soft Falcons' run-stop-unit that allows 4.6 ypc; consequently, the play action game should prosper with a now healthy Crabtree and Manningham who compliment Boldin and V. Davis. SF the call.
|
12-22-13 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +1 v. Green Bay Packers |
|
38-31 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 1 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-13 |
New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers -3 |
|
13-17 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 8 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-13 |
Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -1 |
|
13-24 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
12-22-13 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Cincinnati Bengals -7.5 |
Top |
14-42 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
12-16-13 |
Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Detroit Lions |
Top |
18-16 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
12-15-13 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 |
|
20-30 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
Bengals/Steelers 8:30: Bengals getting comfortable on a three game run should run into trouble against the vengeful Steelers. Steelers, off a disappointing loss against Miami, still mathematically in the playoff picture, albeit on life support, eager to atone for 20-10 September 16th loss. The Steelers are a sweet 10-1 ATS as a dog vs a division opponent off a SU win. And they're 4-1 ATS in their last 5 in this series. Pittsburgh is also 5-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning road record and they're 14-6 ATS after allowing 150+ rushing yards. Bengals' QB Dalton has been inconsistent and overdue for a bad game here. Pittsburgh the call.
|
12-15-13 |
NY Jets v. Carolina Panthers -10 |
Top |
20-30 |
Push |
0 |
4 h 13 m |
Show
|
Jets/Panthers 4:05: Panthers got a little fat and happy during eight game run but last week got their wakeup call at New Orleans. The Panthers are 8-1 ATS off a SU loss of more than five points and should win their 6th straight ATS at home. The Panthers' defense allows a league low 14 1/2 ppg and should stall out the a sluggish Jets' offense that produces just 17.4 ppg. Sure, Geno Smith had a rare respectable performance last week but it was against the shaky Oakland secondary. On the other hand, the Jets' defense is 24th against the pass and will be sorely tested by the mobile Cam Newton. Jets' which play a lot of man to man, struggle against mobile QBs. And it surely won't help the Jets playing without Cromartie (concussed). Panthers, 22-8 ATS in December should deliver vs the inconsistent Jets.
|
12-15-13 |
San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
33-14 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
12-15-13 |
Buffalo Bills v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 |
|
27-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
1 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
12-12-13 |
San Diego Chargers +10.5 v. Denver Broncos |
|
27-20 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 19 m |
Show
|
Chargers/Broncos 8:30: Chargers played Denver tough in the first meeting this season and have a history of playing well in Denver at 5-0-1 ATS. Rivers (26 TD/9 INT) is having a great season and he's a fierce competitor when his team is in the game late and have a chance to win. And the Denver defense has been yielding consistently throughout the year. I look for the Chargers to hang around on account of their defense starting to pick up steam. SD has forced 12 turnovers in their last 8 games. The Chargers' DC Pagano should find creative ways to pressure Manning now that Wes Welker (concussion) won't be in the fray. Road team in this series 5-0-1 ATS and I'm taking the points.
|
12-09-13 |
Dallas Cowboys +1.5 v. Chicago Bears |
|
28-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 4 m |
Show
|
|
12-09-13 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears OVER 48.5 |
Top |
28-45 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 21 m |
Show
|
Cowboys/Bears 8:45: Back in the day, both of these teams used to stand for staunch defense and ball control offense; that's all a lingering memory now. Both of these teams have regressed to soft defenses. And you can't sugar coat it because of injuries -- all NFL teams this time of year are thin or experiencing injuries. The fact of the matter is Dallas is dead last in the NFL in stopping the pass. Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2, which Chicago's DC Tucker also employs, is predicated on the front four generating a pass rush; so far, neither team has done that consistently with Dallas and Chicago in the bottom tier of the NFL in sacks; consequently, the mediocre secondary personnel must hold coverage and that's difficult with the receiving talent around this league. Tonight, Romo, who contrary to what analysts say, has pretty good numbers in December (27 TD/5 INT w/ 106.3 passer rating), should dice the Chicago secondary, which will be without Charles Tillman. And to open up the passing game, the Cowboys' RB Murray should post big numbers against the league's worst run-stop-unit, which is without LB Briggs. And the Chicago offense, with QB McCown, should continue to work that lame Dallas secondary despite the return of linebacker Sean Lee. Brandon Marshall has had three big games vs the Cowboys and Forte is another weapon the Cowboys will have trouble with. Cowboys are 4-1 O/U on road and 9-4-1 O/U on MNF. Bears 5-1 O/U after allowing 350+ yards previous week and 23-6 O/U after accumulating 350+ previously. Over it is!
|
12-08-13 |
NY Giants +4 v. San Diego Chargers |
|
14-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 55 m |
Show
|
|
12-08-13 |
Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2 |
Top |
17-19 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 8 m |
Show
|
Seattle/San Francisco 4:30: Big revenge game for SF with that 29-3 drubbing on September 15th still in mind. The 49ers have Seattle in a good spot. The Seahawks are coming off a 34-7 demolition of New Orleans Monday night and operate on a short week of prep. The 49ers do have Crabtree back to add to the talented skill players Boldin, TE Davis and RB Gore. Kaepernick is playing better -- strong last two games -- and should be on his game here. The Seahawks won't have that twelfth man to aid them here and the 49ers should be able to move the football with Seattle's limited depth in secondary. Defensively, the 49ers have toughened up recently and getting back to its dominant state of last year. SF is 7-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points previously. The favorite in this series is 5-1 ATS and the home team is 7-2 ATS. Today, we'll look for Harbaugh to get the best of his nemesis Carroll.
|
12-08-13 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Cincinnati Bengals -7 |
|
28-42 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
12-08-13 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Baltimore Ravens -6 |
|
26-29 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
12-05-13 |
Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 |
|
20-27 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
12-02-13 |
New Orleans Saints +6.5 v. Seattle Seahawks |
Top |
7-34 |
Loss |
-104 |
5 h 32 m |
Show
|
Saints/Seahawks 8:45: Two great coaches in Payton/Carroll square off but I like the value with the Saints. Thought this line would be more competitive given that the Seahawks' secondary will be without Thurmond (suspended) and Browner (groin). Saints' Payton has plenty of weaponry at his disposal now that Graham and Sproles had additional time to recover during bye week. And Payton should create personnel matchups to exploit the thinning Seattle secondary that HC Carroll can only scheme and shuffle to a certain extent. And keep in mind that Drew Brees works great magic on prime time, including nine straight winning starts on Mondays with a 124 passer rating! On the other hand, the Saints' defense is the best it has been in years under DC Rob Ryan -- in the top quarter of the NFL in Total Defense. We'll look for the Saints to be more equipped than they were in that forgetful 2010 Playoff loss at Seattle when RB Lynch ran all over them. Saints are 5-0 ATS on Mondays and 6-0 ATS off a bye; moreover, they're 6-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points against .500 or greater foes. Saints the call.
|
12-01-13 |
NY Giants +1 v. Washington Redskins |
|
24-17 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
12-01-13 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. San Diego Chargers |
|
17-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 7 m |
Show
|
|
12-01-13 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7.5 v. Carolina Panthers |
|
6-27 |
Loss |
-115 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
TB/Carolina 1:00: The Bucs have covered 4 straight and seeking to avenge October 24th loss. Panthers, on a serious roll, should have trouble in this spot; after all, Carolina is 0-7 ATS at home vs a division opponent with revenge off a SU win. I like how TB is playing on the road now -- strong covers at Seattle and the SU @ Detroit. Ground game cooking with RB Rainey and QB Glennon taking care of football (10 TD/1 INT last 6 games). And defensively, the Bucs' defense improving dramatically. We'll look for them to be competitive despite the absence of Revis (groin) today.
|
12-01-13 |
New England Patriots -7 v. Houston Texans |
|
34-31 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-13 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens |
|
20-22 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 26 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-13 |
Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 47.5 |
|
24-31 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 36 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-13 |
Green Bay Packers +7 v. Detroit Lions |
|
10-40 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
|
11-25-13 |
San Francisco 49ers -4.5 v. Washington Redskins |
|
27-6 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 30 m |
Show
|
49ers/Redskins 8:40: The Redskins' defense hasn't shown it can stop anyone for the entire season. They're in the bottom tier of the NFL in Total Defense and Scoring Defense. Tonight, we'll look for the smash mouth 49ers' offense to roll over them. The 49ers offense has not flourished this year as Kaepernick no longer uses his legs to dodge defenders. And with only Boldin and Vernon Davis as his go to weapons, the 49ers should pound the ball with RB Gore and work off that with play action. Should be the winning plan offensively. Defensively, however, the 49ers hold the significant edge. RG III has been rendered mediocre this season. He, like the other mobile QBs in the league, has stalled out as a running threat as defensive coordinators across the league have engineered a successful blueprint. And RG III's tentativeness to run has also limited the Redskins' offensive production. The pocket passing plan for him is not flourishing and it shouldn't against the stable 49ers' defense that is now starting to resemble last year's staunch unit. 49ers are 9-1 ATS after accumulating less than 150 yards passing, 11-4 ATS off a loss, and 21-5 on MNF. Redskins have struggled vs NFC foes at 1-7 ATS and should perish here.
|
11-24-13 |
Denver Broncos -1 v. New England Patriots |
|
31-34 |
Loss |
-123 |
16 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
11-24-13 |
Dallas Cowboys v. NY Giants -1 |
|
24-21 |
Loss |
-128 |
12 h 4 m |
Show
|
Cowboys/Giants 4:25: The Giants weathered their disastrous 0-6 start to knock off 4 straight. We'll look for the G-Men to avenge their opening day defeat against the defenseless Cowboys. Dallas, which is dead last among NFL teams in "total defense" yielding 440 ypg, should allow Eli Manning to continue his success in the air against them. As pathetic as NY was in that first game --with 6 turnovers -- Manning, who threw 3 INT's before rallying back NY to nearly knock off Dallas. The Giants have cleaned up their game on both sides of the ball and should avenge that loss. Dallas defense is void their team leader Sean Lee and also without Jason Durant. Giants are a sweet 10-4-1 ATS following a game in which they accumulated 250+ yards passing. We'll look for Eli to carve up Kiffin's bunch some more.
|
11-24-13 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 v. Detroit Lions |
|
24-21 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 38 m |
Show
|
Tampa Bay/Detroit 1:05: TB has gained winning momentum after a difficult go of it. The Bucs have covered three straight. They have a recent tendency to deliver off a SU win under Schiano at 4-0-1 ATS. The pass game is starting to click under rookie QB Glennon and he should be able to expose a pass defense ranked 30th in the NFL. On the other hand, going against the Lions is always a concern with WR Calvin Johnson healthy; however, TB CB Revis should be up to the task; after all, he held Johnson to 1 catch for 13 yards the last time he had that duty. The demoralized Lions are 1-10 ATS after allowing 30+ the previous week, and they're 1-8 ATS in week 12. Schwartz lost them yet another game a week ago with another bone head decision; pretty soon Detroit will tune him out. The dog in this series is 7-2 ATS while the road team has covered 4 of the last 5. TB has the value here.
|
11-24-13 |
San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 |
|
41-38 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
11-21-13 |
New Orleans Saints v. Atlanta Falcons UNDER 53.5 |
|
17-13 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 0 m |
Show
|
|
11-18-13 |
New England Patriots v. Carolina Panthers -1 |
|
20-24 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
Patriots/Panthers 8:45: Great opportunity for Carolina to establish itself as a major force in the NFC. They've already battled Seattle blow for blow successfully for a cover, and upset the 49ers at Candlestick Park to get on the proverbial map! Tonight, we'll look for the Panthers to make a statement in prime time. Carolina has the #1 defense in the NFL led by Luke Kuechly who has a rock solid supporting cast that has remained healthy! I do understand Tom Brady is 13-4 SU on MNF and coming off a bye week under arguably the greatest NFL strategist Belichick; however, the Patriots can only scheme so much with average personnel; after all, their inexperienced receiving corps has dropped numerous catchable balls by Brady; they're run stop unit will be sorely tested tonight with Wilfork on the shelf and a very thin defensive backfield ravaged by injuries. The Panthers are confident offensively behind QB Cam Newton and a deep backfield (D.Williams/Stewart/Barner). And the always competitive WR Steve Smith could have another big game. We'll ride the Panthers despite Rivera's 0-4 ATS mark off a SU win vs .500 or greater opponent. We'll put more stock in the 1-5 ATS mark in NE's last 6 road tilts. Carolina the call.
|
11-17-13 |
Kansas City Chiefs +7.5 v. Denver Broncos |
Top |
17-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
9 h 50 m |
Show
|
Chiefs/Broncos 8:30: Chiefs will look to shorten this game and keep Peyton Manning and company off the field. To do this, KC will have to get their running game going with Jamaal Charles to allow Alex Smith open up play action. Fortunately, WR Bowe will play and that bodes well for KC. Broncos know QB Manning (ankle) will be needed for the rest of season and playoffs; consequently, Denver should 5 to 7 step drop passes against a sack happy Chiefs team (36 sacks leads league). With double revenge on the Chiefs' minds, they should be quite competitive here. And HC Reid is a sweet 13-1 ATS off a bye and 7-1 as a dog of 6 or more points. KC the call.
|
11-17-13 |
San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints -3 |
|
20-23 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
11-17-13 |
San Diego Chargers -1 v. Miami Dolphins |
|
16-20 |
Loss |
-114 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
|
11-17-13 |
NY Jets -1 v. Buffalo Bills |
|
14-37 |
Loss |
-113 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
|
11-17-13 |
Detroit Lions -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers |
|
27-37 |
Loss |
-130 |
8 h 28 m |
Show
|
|
11-14-13 |
Indianapolis Colts -1 v. Tennessee Titans |
Top |
30-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 9 m |
Show
|
Colts/Titans 8:25: Two teams coming off disastrous losses: Colts getting blown out at home vs St. Louis and Tennessee upset by lowly Jacksonville. We'll look for the Colts to bounce back tonight, however. Colts are 10-1 ATS off a SU loss and 6-0 ATS after allowing 30+ points. With similar defensive stats, it will ultimately come down to special teams and offensive production with Andrew Luck vs backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, which is an easy call; after all, the Colts special teams are better and should learn from last week's disaster (Tavon Austin). And the Titans have turned the ball over 13 times over their last five games. Their QB Fitzpatrick has a history of interception problems stemming from Buffalo. Furthermore, the Colts are 8-1 SU in this series and 5-0 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. Colts the call.
|
11-11-13 |
Miami Dolphins v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 |
|
19-22 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 46 m |
Show
|
|
11-10-13 |
Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6 |
Top |
17-49 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
Cowboys/Saints 8:30: Saints, which are coming off a loss at NY, should get back to biz here. New Orleans is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss and 6-2 ATS in this series. Rob Ryan, the Saints' DC who was fired by the Cowboys after last season, should have his men well focused to stop the pass happy Cowboys. On the other hand, the Saints will have another key offensive cog -- Sproles -- back in the mix to work a mediocre Dallas defense. Cowboys are just 1-6 ATS in November football and should have trouble in this spot; after all, New Orleans is a dangerous 20-6 ATS at the Superdome. New Orleans the call.
|
11-10-13 |
Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -3 |
|
24-27 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 18 m |
Show
|
|
11-10-13 |
Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers -5.5 |
|
10-9 |
Loss |
-107 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
|
11-10-13 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers +1 |
|
27-13 |
Loss |
-104 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
11-07-13 |
Washington Redskins -1 v. Minnesota Vikings |
|
27-34 |
Loss |
-106 |
7 h 53 m |
Show
|
|
11-04-13 |
Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -10 |
|
27-20 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
Bears/Packers 8:40: Bears will be hard pressed to move the football successfully against a GB defense in the top quarter of the NFL in terms of Total Defense; at the same time, Chicago's defense, which is in the bottom quarter of the NFL, should have trouble stopping Aaron Rodgers, who has had great success against the Bears' defenses -- which were a lot better than this one under first year HC Trestman; as a matter of fact, this year's Bears defense has given up explosive plays through the air of 20+ yards at a 57% clip; last season, it was at 29%. Aaron Rodgers has hit 50% of his passes over 20+ yards this season and should light up the Bears' secondary, especially since RB Lacy has added a new positive dimension to the running game. Chicago, on the other hand, will be more reliant on RB Matt Forte with back-up QB Josh McCown at the helm. Don't believe McCown is in rhythm with offense; consequently, it should be hard to trade points tonight. Bottom line is that the Bears struggle in GB at 1-4 ATS and haven't shown strength recently on the road at 2-5 ATS. And quarterbacks not named Cutler directing the Bears' offense sport an 8/21 TD/INT ratio. Packers roll.
|
11-03-13 |
Indianapolis Colts -1 v. Houston Texans |
|
27-24 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
|
11-03-13 |
Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Cleveland Browns |
|
18-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
11-03-13 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Oakland Raiders -1 |
|
49-20 |
Loss |
-102 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
|
11-03-13 |
San Diego Chargers v. Washington Redskins |
Top |
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
10-31-13 |
Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Miami Dolphins |
|
20-22 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 38 m |
Show
|
|
10-28-13 |
Seattle Seahawks -13 v. St Louis Rams |
|
14-9 |
Loss |
-103 |
6 h 17 m |
Show
|
Seattle/St. Louis 8:40: Still see value with the rested Seahawks despite nearly a two touchdown road favorite. Seattle has traveled well at 7-1 ATS and present one of NFL's top defenses in most categories. They'll face backup QB Kellen Clemens who possesses a mediocre 62.2 QB rating in 31 career starts. Moreover, Clemens doesn't have the luxury of a sound run game to fall back on; after all, St. Louis ranks in the bottom of the NFL in rushing yards; consequently, Seattle, which has a top notch run-stop-unit in addition to a ball hawking secondary, should stall out the low producing offense of St. Louis. And eventually we'll look for Seattle to wear out the Rams' defense with Lynch and company. Seattle is 9-3 ATS in this series and despite trouble with them last year, should roll tonight.
|
10-27-13 |
NY Giants +5.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles |
|
15-7 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
10-27-13 |
San Francisco 49ers -15 v. Jacksonville Jaguars |
|
42-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 39 m |
Show
|
|