Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks -2 | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Atlanta is in short revenge after losing 110-106 to Orlando on the road this past Wednesday. The Hawks blew a nine-point fourth quarter lead and had several controversial calls go against them. Orlando forced overtime by scoring with three seconds left in regulation. The Hawks have been idle since while the Magic were beaten at home by the Nuggets, 103-89, last night. The Magic's offense looked terrible in that game minus injured Evan Fournier, their second-leading scorer and top 3-point marksman. Making it worse for the Magic are they lost leading scorer Aaron Gordon in that loss. He suffered a concussion. Neither he nor Fournier will play against the Hawks. Atlanta is one of the worst teams in the NBA. But Orlando is in free-fall losing 12 of its last 15 games. The Magic are short-handed with swingman Terrence Ross and Jonathan Isaac also out. Orlando is playing for the third time in four days and without rest. So the spot and situation set up well for the Hawks, who have covered four of their last six and are 11-3 in their last 14 home games versus Orlando.
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2.5 v. Ball State | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
I see Ball State in a letdown spot after upsetting Notre Dame as an 18-point road underdog in its last game. The Crusaders, on the other hand, are in bounce back mode. They were 8-0 until their last game when they were buried by Purdue. The Crusaders have covered 11 of the past 16 times following a loss. |
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12-08-17 | Cavs -3 v. Pacers | 102-106 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
The Cavaliers are gunning for a franchise-best 14th consecutive victory. I see them getting it here in a revenge spot. Indiana upset the Cavaliers, 124-107, as a 10-point road 'dog at the start of November. The Cavaliers were really struggling on defense back then ranking last. Now, during their 13-game game win streak, the Cavaliers have had the sixth-best defense. Cleveland has been strong on the road going 16-6-1 ATS in its past 23 away contests, including 8-4 this season. The Cavaliers also are going for a club-record eighth road win in a row. LeBron James is in the MVP discussion. He's the only player in the NBA to average 25 points, eight rebounds and eight assists per game. The Pacers are 14-11. All but four of their victories, though, have come against below .500 opponents. Cleveland has covered the past five times it has played against a winning foe. It's a plus for the Cavaliers if Tristan Thompson can return for this game after being out with a calf strain.
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
It's always rough being the visitor for the Thursday night NFL game. The Saints' journey is made even more difficult by how late it is in the season when the wear-and-tear really takes a toll. The Saints had a very early bye, too, being idle in Week 5. This marks their third straight marquee matchup having traveled to LA to face the Rams two weeks ago and hosting the Panthers this past Sunday, which was a late day start. These two teams are very even with balanced, potent offenses and improved defenses. But getting the Falcons at home on a short week is worth more than a normal home field advantage especially with the Saints being the more banged-up team. Atlanta has been home for the past three weeks so it has a nice situational edge. Both teams are going to play hard. The Falcons have more at stake, though, besides protecting their home field. They need to win to keep the Saints from taking a major step in clinching the NFC South Division. A loss also would drop the Falcons to 7-6 and put them in the thick of trying to qualify for a highly-competitive wild-card spot. Drew Brees is a future Hall of Famer. Matt Ryan is the reigning MVP. Brees historically has been less effective on the road. Julio Jones is the best wideout on the field. He'll be especially dangerous if Marshon Lattimore, the Saints prize rookie cornerback, can't play, or is hobbled, by an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the past two games. If you can't contain Jones, you can't beat the Falcons. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are one of the best running back tandems in the league. They are trumped, however, by Mark Ingram and Alvin Karma. They've scored 16 of the Saints' NFL-leading 19 rushing touchdowns. There is a catch here, though: The Saints have key injuries besides Lattimore. Ingram has a toe injury. He didn't practice Wednesday and is questionable. Karma is a sprinter not a workhorse. His effectiveness could be compromised without Ingram to do the heavy lifting. There is more. The Saints also could be minus two starting offensive linemen. Left guard Andrus Peat already has been declared out with a groin injury. He had played in every one of New Orleans' snaps on offense. Left tackle Terron Armstread is questionalbe. He missed last Sunday's game with a groin injury, too. So the short week really hits the Saints hard. The injury news is much brigther for the Falcons. Their star cornerback, Desmond Trufant, has been cleared from his concussion symptoms that caused him to miss last Sunday's 14-9 loss to the Vikings. Nickel back Brian Poole also missed that game due to a back injury. He's expected to play, too. Pick'em type games often are the hardest to get involved in. So while this is far from a max unit recommendation, the Falcons have enough going for them with situation, home field on a short week and favorable injury status to get the nod.
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12-06-17 | Warriors -5 v. Hornets | Top | 101-87 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
The Warriors are still an outstanding team without Stephen Curry. They want to prove that on national TV against the Hornets here. Golden State has been playing well and when that happens no team can come close to the Warriors. The Warriors have won four in a row averaging 127 points during this span. All of these victories have come on the road where the Warriors have covered 19 of their last 27 away contests. Golden State has won its last three games by a combined 39 points against the Magic, Heat and Pelicans. The Hornets aren't any better than the Heat and Pelicans. Charlotte is 1-4 in its last five games with its lone win occurring this past Monday at home against the Magic, 104-94. The Hornets didn't play well, though. They were bailed out by a huge free throw advantage. They made 33 of 40 free throws while the Magic were able to get to the line only 14 times. The Hornets rank 26th in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. The Warriors are first in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. Golden State has beaten Charlotte six straight times, including the last three in Charlotte. The Warriors have a lot of fans in the area because of Curry.
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12-06-17 | Pistons +4 v. Bucks | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
Detroit is better than Milwaukee and in stop-the-pain mode trying to salvage one game out of its four-game road trip. Detroit didn't play well against the Wizards to begin their trip, but then suffered tough close losses against the 76ers and Spurs. The Pistons have covered nine of their 13 road contests this season. They are 8-1 ATS when getting three or more points, which is the case here. On deck for the Pistons are the Warriors and Celtics, the two-best teams in basketball. So they really need to win this game. The Bucks have proven untrustworthy going 3-6-1 ATS at home this season and 2-5 ATS when laying five points or fewer. Milwaukee has some outstanding talent. But the Bucks are not well coached, rank last in 3-point defense and don't rebound well making them vulnerable to rebounding leader Andre Drummond.
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12-06-17 | Wisconsin v. Temple -4.5 | 55-59 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
I'm not high on Wisconsin this year. The Badgers are young and not overly talented. Greg Gard is not Bo Ryan. I like Temple in this spot. The Owls haven't played up to expectations losing twice as road chalk during their past three games. They are better than they've shown, which has made this line shorter than I thought. I see the Owls displaying their full potential in this spot. |
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12-05-17 | Suns v. Raptors -13 | Top | 113-126 | Push | 0 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
The Suns caught the 76ers playing probably their worst game of the season and upset them, 115-101, as 10-point road 'dogs Monday night. But the Suns aren't going to catch the Raptors in such a generous mood. Toronto is playing extremely well, has been dominant at home, is itching to play having been idle since Friday and won't be taking the lightly-regarded Suns lightly like the 76ers mistakenly did last night. Not only are the Suns in a letdown mood following their imprressive victory, but they could be out of gas, too, as this is the finale of a six-game, 10-day road trip that has resulted in close to 5,000 miles of travel. It's Phoenix's third game in four days, second in two nights and fifth in eight days. The well rested Raptors are 8-1 at home. They have won three in a row beating the Hawks on the road, Hornets and Pacers by a combined 52 points. The Raptors are averaging 119.3 points during their win streak and rank fourth in the NBA in scoring at 110.9. They also have a top-10 defense. Phoenix ranks last defensively in the league surrendering 115.2 points per game. So the Raptors certainly should pile up a high point total.
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12-05-17 | Islanders v. Lightning -1.5 | 2-6 | Win | 160 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
The buy sign is back on Tampa Bay. The Lightning looked good beating San Jose, 5-2, at home this past Saturday in their last game. It was encouraging to see Nikita Kucherov reuturn to his hot ways scoring two goals after being switched to a line with Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat. The line change also energized Tyler Johnson, who scored two goals playing with Steven Stamkos and Vladislav Namestnikov. Kucherov and Stamkos rank first and second, respectively, in scoring in the NHL. Tampa Bay has dominated the Islanders winning seven of the last eight meetings. New York, though, defeated the Lightning, 5-3, in Tampa on Nov. 18 during the previous meeting. The Lightning should be fired-up remembering that recent loss, just their third home defeat in 15 games. The Islanders played a tough game last night squeaking past the Panthers, 5-4, on the road. I like the goalie matchup, too, from a Lightning standpoint much preferring Andrei Vasilevskiy against either Thomas Greiss or Jaroslav Halak. Vasilevskiy has been one of the top goalies this season leading the NHL in wins with 14 and rating fifth in goals-against-average at 2.22.
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12-05-17 | Winthrop +12 v. Georgia | 82-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
Winthrop has the offense to hang in against Georgia. The Eagles scored 85 points against Auburn and average 90.4 points per game. Winthrop has talent with Anders Broman and Xavier Cooks. Georgia may not have its full intensity after upsetting Marquette on the road in its last game this past Saturday. The Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS following a victory and have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 home contests. |
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12-04-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
Boston just may be the second-best team in the NBA next to Golden State. Certainly right now the Celtics are No. 1 in the Eastern Conference. Boston is 20-2 in its last 22 games and has won 10 of its past 11 home games. The Celtics have dropped just two home games all season. One of these losses came in their second game of the season to the Bucks. The Celtics had just lost to the Cavaliers the night before and also lost Gordon Hayward for the season with a gruesome injury. The Bucks took advantage of the spot. Boston hasn't forgotten. A motivated Celtics team can beat any team in the NBA at home as they proved when they defeated the Warriors on Nov. 16. The Bucks have a losing record when meeting above .500 opponents. Milwaukee improved when it acquired Eric Bledsoe, but the Bucks are nowhere near the Celtics' level
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 91 h 49 m | Show | |
These teams met in the Seahawks' 10th game of the season last year. Seattle was a 6 1/2-point home favorite and won, 26-15. Now, a little more than a year later, the Eagles are favored by nearly that amount. Is a 12-point swing justified? The Eagles are greatly improved. Carson Wentz has become a franchise quarterback. Seattle is missing two defensive back stars, Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks have lost their last two home games. But, no, this line is out of whack. I expect the Seahawks to win this game straight-up. Never in Pete Carroll's eight years in Seattle have the Seahawks dropped three home games in a row. Century-Link Field remains the toughest outdoor venue in the league for opposing teams. The Seahawks have a history of stepping up late in the season under Carroll as evidenced by a 19-6-1 ATS mark during their past 26 December games. Seattle's defense still is very good. The Seahawks limit opponents to 98.4 yards rushing. They rank in the top 10 in fewest yards allowed, rushing defense and pass defense. Seattle has held its past two opponents to fewer than 200 yards passing despite not having Sherman and Chancellor. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Seattle's front seven remains imposing especially at home. Wentz has been tremendous. But Russell Wilson is one of the few quarterbacks who trump him. Wilson is the best quarterback in the NFC, accounting for a higher percentage of his team's yards than any other player in the league. Wilson has good receiving targets and his uncanny mobility offsets Seattle's poor offensive line and lack of a ground attack. The Eagles can afford a loss here. The Seahawks can't. The urgency to win is with Seattle.
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12-03-17 | Panthers +4.5 v. Saints | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 88 h 21 m | Show | |
Both teams are 8-3 and first place is at stake in the NFC South Division. The Saints are home and have the more dynamic offense. But the Panthers are a strong road club with the superior defense and in revenge mode. The points are generous. So I'm going with the 'dog. New Orleans is much improved defensively. This improvement just makes the Saints average on defense, though. The Saints also may be missing their starting cornerbacks with Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley hoping to gain clearance after sitting out last week with injuries. Carolina has a very strong defense ranking No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and eighth in scoring defense. The Panthers have the No. 3 run defense and are sixth in pass defense. The Saints will have to earn their points. New Orleans has played three strong teams this season - the Vikings, Patriots and Rams. The Saints lost each of those matchups. Aside from beating Carolina, 34-13 in Week 3, the Saints' only other victory against an above .500 team came against the Lions in a wild matchup. Cam Newton played terrible in the Panthers' loss to the Saints. He had a season-low passer rating and threw three interceptions. I expect him to play much better. Newton is far more effective when he's running and that should be the case against the Saints in this division showdown. Carolina has covered in seven of its last eight road games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 6-0 ATS. The Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans. The Panthers are in a better travel spot, too. They had their bye two weeks ago and then got some rust off playing the Jets this past Sunday. The Saints were fortunate to defeat a beat-up Redskins squad two weeks ago at home and had to return from the West Coast this past Sunday following a loss to the Rams.
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12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers +1.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 86 h 35 m | Show | |
Jameis Winston's return is the big news for Tampa Bay. But underneath that headline should be that the Buccaneers are going to be without two starting offensive linemen, right tackle Demar Dotson and center Ali Marpet. Both were injured this past Sunday and are out for the season with knee injuries. They were among the Buccaneers' top three offensive linemen. Doug Martin likely is out, too, for Tampa Bay after suffering a concussion. He's by far the Buccaneers' best running back. Winston might be rusty after being out a month. He's a hot and cold quarterback capable of throwing multiple touchdown passes, or multiple interceptions. The Buccaneers are 4-7 and headed nowhere. Their victories have been against foes who have a 13-31 combined record. The Packers' offense finally showed life under Brett Hundley on the road in Pittsburgh against a very strong defense, one much better than Tampa Bay's. The Packers put up 28 points, the second-most points the Steelers have allowed all season. That has to boost Hundley's confidence. Jamaal Williams has been solid at running back and Hundley should have ample time to find Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb since the Buccaneers lack a pass rush ranking last in sacks with 15. The Buccaneers also are at the bottom in total defense.
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12-02-17 | Pistons +5 v. 76ers | 103-108 | Push | 0 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Any time the better team is getting points, especially this many, I'm strongly looking underdog. Yes, the Pistons played last night. They didn't play well either getting embarrassed by the Wizards, 109-91, on the road. That halted a three-game Detroit win streak and Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy was not happy ripping his team for not playing hard. I expect the Pistons to play better and with more intensity today. Detroit has covered each of the past five times following a loss. The Pistons also have revenge for a home loss to the 76ers from back on Oct. 23. Detroit is 14-7 on the season and in the argument for second-best team in the Eastern Conference. The Pistons have covered eight of their 11 road contests. The 76ers are greatly improved, but their record is 12-9 and they are striving to be more consistent with a lot of young talent that still is looking to mesh.
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12-02-17 | Georgia +3 v. Auburn | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Sharp money has come on Georgia and I can understand why. The Bulldogs are in a huge revenge spot and Auburn is coming off a huge home win against Alabama. The Bulldogs have the best running attack in the SEC with Nick Chubb and Sony Michel and a defense that gives up the fourth fewest yards per game in the country. I don't see Auburn stopping the Bulldogs on the ground like it did in the first meeting. |
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12-01-17 | Illinois +6 v. Northwestern | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Northwestern has been an early season disappointment opening 4-3, including losing its past two games. Illinois started fast until losing 80-73 to Wake Forest. The Illini are 4-1 in their last five meetings against the Wildcats, winning both matchups last season. The Illini are playing up-tempo under new coach Brad Underwood. So they won't get caught up in Northwestern's slow-down tactics. This is a very early Big Ten meeting so points figure to matter a lot. |
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11-29-17 | Warriors -11 v. Lakers | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Off a shocking loss to the Kings on Monday, I want the Warriors going for me today especially against the Lakers, a probable lottery bound team. |
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11-29-17 | UNLV v. Northern Iowa +1 | 68-77 | Win | 102 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
UNLV has been a major early surprise. But the Rebels have played lesser competition except for Utah. The Rebels like to get up and down the floor. Northern Iowa is a tough foe for them because the Panthers play much slower. The Rebels are 5-18-3 ATS in their last 26 road contests. Unlike UNLV, Northern Iowa is battle-tested having faced Villanova, SMU and NC State. The Panthers dictated pace against those foes - and that pace was slow. Northern Iowa has held its last six opponents to 43 percent or worse shooting from the floor. The Rebels may not have the proper focus either with a rivalry showdown on tap gainst Arizona.
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11-29-17 | Thunder -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 108-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The Thunder give up the second-fewest points per game in the NBA. They have the sixth-best point differential per 100 possessions. And, oh yes, they have three superstars in their lineup - Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony along with an underrated center who does much of the dirty work, Steven Adams. Yet Oklahoma City is 8-11 SU and ATS. What in the heck gives with this team, anyways? I'm certainly not a fan of Billy Donovan as an NBA coach. He should go back to college. Westbrook, George and Anthony are all playing below expectations especially with their shooting and Oklahoma City can't win on the road going 2-8. This, of course, begs the question of why back them as road chalk? I admit, some of it may be a leap of faith. The Thunder are coming off a horrendous 97-81 road loss to lowly Dallas. That was back on Saturday. They've had to live with the sting of that for three full days. Now finally they get to play again. So part of the handicap is based on situation. Oklahoma City has had ample time to rest and game plan. Orlando is home for the first time in nine days following a four-game road trip that conclued Monday night in Indiana. The Magic are the coldest team in the NBA losers of nine in a row with six of those defeats occurring by double-digits. Orlando is surrendering an average of 117.4 points during its nine-game loss streak. Westbrook, George and Anthony should get well against such a terrible defense. The Thunder average 12 more points per game than the Magic. Orlando doesn't defend well, shoot well and makes poor decisions on offense. Oklahoma City is a bully. The Thunder can beat bad teams. The Magic aren't only bad, but they're soft, tailor-made for the Thunder to exploit. Orlando has a bad history, too, versus Oklahoma City losing in nine of the past 11 meetings, including five of six at home. |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +5 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Push | 0 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
First off, there is no home court advantage since both teams play at Staples Center. There are more Lakers fans in the area than Clippers fan. The Lakers have been idle since Wednesday when they lost to the Kings on the road. They are anxious to get back playing and have had good practices. The Clippers, on the other hand, are returning back to LA after five consecutive road games that concluded Saturday night against the Kings. The Clippers have really struggled due to multiple injuries. Losing Patrick Beverley really hurts their backcourt, which was in transition in the post Chris Paul era. The Clippers are 3-11 SU and ATS in their last 14 games with their only victories coming against the Mavericks, Hawks and Kings. The combined record of those teams is 14-45. The Lakers get back Larry Nance today. They also have a quality defensive center in Andrew Bogut to counter DeAndre Jordan. The Clippers have dominated this series taking advantage of the Lakers' rebuilding in winning the past 10 times. The Lakers are better now and the Clippers have regressed.
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers -14 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -104 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
You have to go all the way back to 1976 to find the last time the Packers were two-touchdown underdogs like they are here. I've been closely following the Packers since the early 1960's. It hasn't all been Bart Starr, Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. I've seen a lot of bad Green Bay quarterbacks. Brett Hundley can take his place among them. Hundley has played 19 quarters. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is 2-to-10. He's been sacked 17 times and his passer rating is 63.6. The Packers are averaging 13.4 points in the five games Hundley has played since replacing the injured Rodgers. All but one of Hundley's starts have come at home, too. Now the Packers have to play at Heinz Field where they will be lucky to score 10 points against a Pittsburgh defense that is second in sacks with 34. The Steelers defense is solid up front, has linebackers who run and hit and have a strong secondary with physical safeties in the middle. No team has scored more than 17 points on the Steelers during their past five games. Hundley isn't playing with a full deck either. Green Bay is down to third-string running back Jamaal Williams and has a huge hole at offensive right tackle. Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb have been exposed as mediocre commodities nearly totally dependent on Rodgers setting them up. Davonte Adams has been the Packers' only effective receiving target since Rodgers went down. Unfortunately for the Packers, they also face great obstacles on defense. The Steelers have tremendous weapons and their offense is playing at their highest level coming off a 40-17 victory against Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger has helped Pittsburgh win five in a row by throwing for 1,328 yards, 10 touchdowns and compiling a 102.7 quarterback rating during this span. Antonio Brown is leading the NFL in receptions and yards. Le'Veon Bell is back leading the league in rushing. The Packers have a cluster injury problem in their secondary and may be without linebacker Clay Matthews and underrated nose tackle Kenny Clark. Pittsburgh is on extra rest and sure to be motivated with this being a nationally televised home game. Since Heinz Field opened in 2001, the Steelers are 19-3 in prime time night games when Roethlisberger has been under center. So, yes, this is that time to lay heavy wood in an NFL game.
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11-26-17 | Titans -3 v. Colts | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show | |
I get that Marcus Mariota has a poor road record. But the difference between these two teams is far more than a field goal. That was proven back in Week 6 when the Titans controlled the ball for nearly 36 minutes in whipping the Colts, 36-22. So what has changed? Nothing. Andrew Luck was last spotted in Europe. The Colts offense is several tiers below the Titans not only at quarterback, but in the offensive line and running back. The Colts have the best wide receiver in T.Y. Hilton, but the Titans have the superior tight end and the second and third-best wideouts. Mariota wasn't even 100 percent when the Titans defeated the Colts by two touchdowns. He is now. The Colts' defense is well below average with few legitimate NFL starters. The Colts are off a bye, but the Titans also are on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Titans have playoff motivation. The Colts have no such incentive and could be flat drawing their bye so late in the season. It could be difficult for them to rejuvenate their juices especially with no playoff hope.
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11-26-17 | Bucs +10.5 v. Falcons | 20-34 | Loss | -135 | 51 h 16 m | Show | |
Atlanta isn't nearly as good as last season, while the Buccaneers are playing better with the pressure off winning their last two, both with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. The Falcons have a below .500 ATS mark. They are 3-4 SU in their last seven games. Only once in their last eight games have they won by more than five points. The Falcons' Big Three of Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman are not matching last year's marks. Ryan is averaging 53 fewer yards passing per game. Jones has only one touchdown and just two 100-yard receiving games. Freeman could be out of action for a second straight game due to a concussion. The Buccaneers have gotten healthier on defense. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay has won and covered in three of its last four meetings against the Falcons. Atlanta is coming off a Monday upset road win against the always physical Seahawks. So the Falcons are on a short week.
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11-25-17 | Colorado +10.5 v. Utah | 13-34 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
I'm very surprised this line is so high. Both teams will be sky high for this matchup with bowl eligibiity at stake for each squad. Recent history indicates a close gamed as the last six meetings have all been one-score finals with the average victory margin being 5.3 points. I really like Colorado's balanced attack with running back Philip Lindsey, who ranks No. 2 in the Pac-12 in yards from scrimmage, and quarterback Steven Montez, who has come on throwing for more than 300 yards during the past three games. Lindsay has scored 14 touchdowns and three Colorado receivers have more than 500 yards receiving. Utah is coming off a disappointing 33-30 road loss to Washington in which the Utes blew the game by allowing 10 points in the final 58 seconds. That dropped Utah's record to 1-6 in Pac-12 games. The Utes have lost at home to Washington State, Stanford and Arizona State as a 10-point favorite. Colorado, on the other hand, has had two weeks to prepare for this game after a much needed bye last week. Utah last had a bye in September. So I'm expecting the Buffaloes to be the fresher team and certainly well prepared.
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11-25-17 | Thunder -5 v. Mavs | 81-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City covered a 10-point spread when it defeated Dallas, 112-99, at home two weeks ago. The Thunder accomplished that without Carmelo Anthony and Steven Adams. Anthony averages 20 points a game and Adams is the Thunder's second-leading rebounder and best big man. Both will be in action here. Yet the spread opened half of what it was in the first meeting. OK, Dallas is home and has been playing better. But the Mavericks can't match the Thunder's superstar trio of Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Anthony. Westbrook is averaging 34.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists during his last four games versus Dallas. The Thunder are in angry mood, too. Just two days off their biggest win of the season, a 17-point victory against the Warriors at home, the Thunder lost 99-98 at home to the Pistons last night blowing a 15-point lead. Look for Oklahoma City to vent its frustration against the Mavericks, a team they have beaten seven of the last eight times. The Thunder have pounded lottery-bound teams like the Mavericks going 16-5 ATS the past 21 times when playing opponents with a winning percentage below .400.
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11-25-17 | Duke +11.5 v. Wake Forest | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
Duke needs to win to keep its bowl hopes alive. Wake Forest already is bowl eligible. The Blue Devils are 5-5 with four of their defeats coming by seven points or less. Duke stopped the bleeding with an impressive 43-20 win against Georgia Tech last week as a 6 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the first time Duke hasn't been favored in this series in five meetings. Only one of the last 10 games in the series has been decided by more than 11 points. That was Duke's 41-21 victory against the Demon Deacons in 2014. Wake Forest has a strong offense. But Duke's defense should keep them in this game. The Blue Devils are 25th in scoring defense surrendering more than 24 points just twice.
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11-24-17 | Blazers -3.5 v. Nets | 127-125 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
Portland is the better team, has short revenge and a monster backcourt edge with Brooklyn down to its third-string point guard. The Trail Blazers are legtimate playoff contenders in the stronger Western Conference. The Nets are bottom feeders in the Eastern Conference, losers of eight of their last 11 games. Portland's defense has been better, but its offense has been disappointing. The Trail Blazers, though, shouldn't have problems putting up points versus the Nets, who rank 29th in points allowed at 114.2 and is 25th in defensive ratings. Only twice all season have the Nets held opponents to fewer than 100 points. Not only do the Nets rate an edge in the frontcourt with Jusuf Nurkic, backed up by Ed Davis and Meyers Leonard. but own a huge guard advantage with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Those two compose one of the top guard tandems in the league. Brooklyn has lost Jeremy Lin and D'Angelo Russell, its two best scorers. Untested reserve Spencer Dinwiddie is holding down the fort right now at point guard. Led by Russell's 21 points, the Nets upset Portland, 101-97, 13 days ago. The Trail Blazers had won the previous four games in the series.
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11-22-17 | Canucks v. Penguins -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
I see this as a kill spot for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is going to be well-rested and motivated having last played this past Saturday when it lost 2-1 to the Blackhawks at home. That was just the Penguins' 12th loss in their past 52 home games. Vancouver is in a flat spot following its 5-2 upset road win against the Flyers Tuesday night. The Canucks entered that matchup against the struggling Flyers ranked 27th in goals and 24th on the power play. The Penguins are going to be missing superstar Evgeni Malkin for the first time this season. He suffered an upper-body injury in the loss to the Blackhawks. But the Canucks have been without their best defenseman, Chris Tanev. He's been out since suffering a thumb injury two weeks ago. Even if Tanev returns to the lineup here, I still like the Penguins enough to lay 1 1/2 goals and in return get a plus price.
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11-21-17 | Bowling Green v. Eastern Michigan -13 | 31-34 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
I'm expecting very little from Bowling Green, which is 2-9 SU and ATS. Mike Jinks hasn't done a good coaching the Falcons. It wouldn't shock me if he was out after this season. Eastern Michigan is far better than its deceiving 4-7 mark. The Eagles have lost six games by a total of 23 points. Three of their losses occurred in overtime. They are 18-6 ATS during their past 24 games, a solid money-maker. The Eagles have superior coaching with Chris Creighton their defense is much better than Bowling Green's. The key comes down to motivation. I see the Eagles, with many seniors, wanting this game more than Bowling Green.The Falcons gave a strong effort for a half against rival Toledo last week before giving up in the second half and getting buried.
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11-20-17 | Wolves +2 v. Hornets | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a case of the better team getting points and coming off a tough loss. Minnesota blew an 11-point lead at home on Sunday falling to the Pistons, 100-97. The Timberwolves will be eager to redeem themselves for that slip-up here. Yes, the Timberwolves are playing without rest. But Charlotte carries a fatigue rating, too. This marks the Hornets' third game in four days and fourth game in six days. Minnesota easily handled the Hornets, 112-94, at home 15 days ago when also playing without rest. The Timberwolves dominated the boards in that victory outrebounding Charlotte, 54-40. The Timberwolves also did an excellent defensive job on Kemba Walker. The Timberwolves have greatly improved their defense this month holding seven of their first nine November foes to 101 points or less. Walker is a very good player. But Jimmy Butler is better and Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Timberwolves the best big man. The Hornets just played the Bulls and beat-up Clippers. This represents a big step-up game for the Hornets. |
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
The Patriots are coming together both offensively and defensively. New England hasn't allowed more than 17 points to any of its past five opponents holding those foes to an average of 13.4 points during this span. Tom Brady is having another masterful season. He should pick apart a soft Raiders secondary that still does not have an interception yet. Dion Lewis is coming on, Rob Gronkowski is healthy and speedster Brandin Cooks has to be taken into account, too. The Raiders were torched by Jay Cutler in their last game. So they're very vulnerable to the much superior Brady. Derek Carr still might not be 100 percent. He's not going to be able to keep up with Brady. This game is being played in high altitude in Mexico City. The Patriots just played the Broncos in Denver and are staying in Colorado this week to get fully acclimitated to the higher elevation.
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11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns +8.5 | 19-7 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
I understand the Browns are snake bit and find ways to not only lose games, but fail to cover spreads. But I have to take more than a touchdown here with Cleveland. The oddsmaker is projecting a low score and I concur. That means points should be at a premium. The Browns rank 11th in total defense and fourth in run defense. They have talent on defense. The Jaguars are run-oriented. They could be missing their best runner, rookie Leonard Fournette. He's dealing with an ankle injury. This is Jacksonville's first cold weather game of the season and first away matchup in four weeks. The Jaguars are in a flat spot, winners of three in a row and now playing the worst team in the NFL. Cleveland is hungry for a victory especially at home. Rookie DeShone Kizer is coming off his best game. Kizer has derailed the Browns offense with his turnovers. However, Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has been a turnover machine, too, during his NFL career. Improvement should continue to come for Kizer as we're into Week 11. The Jaguars would prefer to grind out a victory without having to trust Bortles especially with a banged-up wide receiving corps. That should ensure a close game. If Bortles throws more than warranted than the Jaguars are going to be in trouble.
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11-18-17 | New Mexico State v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | Top | 34-47 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
This has been an underdog series with the 'dog getting the money in seven of the past eight meetings. That should be the case again this year as I see no justification for making New Mexico State a road favorite against Louisiana Lafayette. The Aggies were road favorites against Georgia Southern and Texas State. Those two teams are a combined 2-17. The Ragin' Cajuns are a clear cut above those bottom feeders. Each team is 4-5 trying hard to get two more victories to become bowl eligible. Lafayette still has a chance to claim a share of the Sun Belt Conference title and has a much better pedigree than New Mexico State having gone to a bowl game in five of the last six seasons. This also is Lafayette's homecoming game. The Aggies have a poor November history, too, failing to cover 17 of the past 25 times during November. The Ragin' Cajuns are off a bad road loss to Mississippi, but had four players suspended for that game, including their starting running back and leading rusher Trey Ragas. They will have them all back for this matchup. Ragas will be fresh, too. New Mexico State has the better passer in Tyler Rogers. But he's thrown 15 interceptions. That's more than twice as many interceptions as the Ragin' Cajuns quarterbacks have thrown.
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11-18-17 | Virginia +18.5 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Miami is in letdown mode after consecutive huge home victories against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. Virginia has the passing game to put up enough points to cover this spread. Cavaliers QB Kurt Benkert has thrown 21 TD passes and throws for 249.2 yards per game. The Hurricanes are 0-2 ATS as double-digit ACC favorites. Neither time did they come close to covering beating Syracuse by eight points and North Carolina by five.
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11-18-17 | Minnesota +7.5 v. Northwestern | 0-39 | Loss | -115 | 115 h 12 m | Show | |
Minnesota beat Northwestern, 29-12, last season and the Gophers are better this season under P.J. Fleck. The Gophers have bowl incentive needing another victory to reach six wins. Northwestern has won five in a row, but three have come in overtime. The Wildcats don't have better athletes than the Gophers. I see these teams being close to even in terms of talent so this is a generous spread. Minnesota historically does well on the road against the Wildcats covering in eight of their last nine trips to Evanston.
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11-17-17 | Pistons +1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Much is being made of the Celtics possibly being the best team in the Eastern Conference right now. But quietly, under the radar, are the Pistons. They've compiled the second-best record in the East. Boston and Detroit also have the two best pointspread marks in the NBA. Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson, Tobias Harris and Avery Bradley are all playing well. Drummond is leading the NBA in rebounding while putting in his best all-around season even improving his free throw shooting making 63 percent after sinking a miserable 38.6 percent of his free throws last season. I like the spot. Detroit is coming off a road loss to the Bucks, 99-95, on Wednesday while the Pacers are off an upset road win against the Grizzlies also on Wednesday. Detroit hosted Indiana eight days ago and won, 114-97. The Pacers are playing better since then. Still, that's a 17-point victory and Myles Turner did play in that game. Drummond had a big performance with 21 rebounds and 14 points. Drummond, though, also had his worst free throw shooting game of the season in that game missing all seven of his free throws. Indiana made 77 percent of its free throws to Detroit's 64 percent yet still were blown out.
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11-16-17 | Warriors -7 v. Celtics | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Boston very well may be the best team in the Eastern Conference. But if Golden State is fully motivated and plays well, which I believe the Warriors will do here perceiving a real challenge and starting a four-game road trip, no team can stay within double-digits of them. The Celtics are extremely well coached. Brad Stevens, though, doesn't have enough talent to match up up against Golden State's star-studded lineup and excellent bench. It doesn't help matters for Boston that Kyrie Irving is adjusting to playing with a mask on after suffering facial fractures. Boston has to step up big-time here. The Celtics have faced only two probable playoff teams in their last eight games. The Warriors average an NBA-best 119.6 points a game. They also are No. 1 in field goal percentage and assists and expect to have Stephen Curry back. Golden State's average victory margin is 19.9 points. The Warriors have won during each of their last four visits to Boston.
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11-14-17 | Purdue -5 v. Marquette | 86-71 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
Purdue is far more experienced than Marquette with six of its top seven scorers back. I believe Purdue will have a stronger focus, too, for this matchup. The Boilermakers also have a height advantage. |
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11-14-17 | Lipscomb +14.5 v. Alabama | Top | 64-86 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Lipscomb isn't being given enough credit here. The Bison is tough. Lipscomb has mde good progress under coach Casey Alexander. The team went 20-13 last season, finishing second in the Atlantic Sun and have nine of its top 10 returning scorers back. Rob Marberry and Garrison Mathews are excellent players for Lipscomb. Mathews is averaging 31 points in two games this season. The team ranked ninth nationally in scoring last season and has improved its defense. Alabama is nicked up and faces the distraction of playing in its first home game of the season. This is going to be a far closer game than the oddsmaker envisioned with this spread.
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11-12-17 | Heat v. Pistons -3 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Playing in their new Little Caesars Arena sure agrees with the Pistons. And why not? The new downtown arena is easier for their fans and gives Detroit an improved home-court edge. The Pistons have played well this season, especially at home going 6-1 at Little Caesars Arena. The Pistons have been home for nine days. They catch the Heat on the finale of a six-game, 10-day road swing. Miami is fat and happy winning three of their last four. The Heat's last two victories were by double-digits against the struggling offensively-challenged Jazz and bottom-feeder Suns. Now the Heat play an Eastern Conference foe, one that has the second-best conference record at 9-3. MIami is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games versus Eastern opponents and has failed to cover in five of its last six road games against the Pistons. Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson are having nice seasons for the Pistons. This could be Drummond's best all-around season. He's leading the NBA in rebounding. The Pistons should be motivated to close their homestand with a victory as nine of their next 11 games are on the road.
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11-12-17 | Chargers +4 v. Jaguars | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 10 m | Show | |
Jacksonville is improved, but not enough to be laying more than a field goal to a decent Chargers squad that has won three of their last four with the lone defeat during this span coming to the Patriots. The Jaguars have a minimal home field edge. This is an early start and a long road trip for LA. But the Chargers had a bye last week so there should not be a fatigue factor. Philip Rivers not only gives LA a huge QB edge, but he has the savvy to know how to attack a talented Jacksonville defense. Rivers can move the ball with throws to Keenan Allen in the slot and Melvin Gordon out of the backfield. The Chargers finally have their No. 1 draft pick, wide receiver Mike Williams, ready to contribute. The Chargers defense has been playing well giving up just 37 points during their last three games and gets back linebacker Denzel Perryman from injured reserve. The Jaguars have a limited offense and Blake Bortles is turnover-prone.
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11-12-17 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
Green Bay has beaten Chicago in 13 of the last 15 meetings. The Packers were 7 1/2-point favorites in Week 4 when they rolled past the Bears, 35-14. But now the spread has swung two touchdowns the other way with Aaron Rodgers out. It's too much of an ajustment. The Packers are better than they showed this past Monday night and the Bears aren't good enough to lay this many points. Sure Brent Hundley is going through growing pains filling in for Rodgers. But so is Bears rookie quarterback Mich Trubisky, who will be making only his fifth start. The Packers have far better receiving weapons than the Bears. Trubisky just lost his security blankett, too, with tight end Zach Miller suffering a serious leg injury. Trubisky is a game manager and game managers operating an ultra-conservative offense behind a defensive-minded coach, John Fox, aren't a team to back at this price. The Packers pulled in ranks after releasing distractful Martellus Bennett. Look for the unified, prideful Packers to beat the Bears here.
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11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs +2.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
The Jets have no business laying points on the road where they are 1-3 SU and ATS. New York's lone road win was a fluke against the Browns. The Jets were totally outplayed and outgained by 207 yards. They won because of rookie QB DeShone Kizer's turnovers. Ryan Fitzpatrick certainly is no rookie. He's played well when he's replaced Jameis Winston this season and will be highly motivated going against the last team he played for before coming to Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers won't have suspended Mike Evans, but Fitzpatrick still has other weapons, including underrated tight end Cameron Brate. Fitzpatrick plays best against man coverage, which is the Jets' preferred style. There's a chance, too, the Jets could be missing their top cornerback, Morris Claiborne. The Jets won't have their second-best wideout, suspended Jeremy Kerley, and might also be without defensive lineman Muhammad Wilkerson. The Buccaneers have received good news on the injury front. They get back their best cornerback, Brent Grimes, and could have a healthy offensive line. The Jets are one of the few teams who haven't had their bye yet. That comes next week. So their focus may be off.
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11-11-17 | Cavs -5.5 v. Mavs | 111-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 13 m | Show | |
At 5-7, the Cavaliers are the most disappointing team in the NBA. Cleveland is in stop-the-pain mode having lost six of its last eight. Now they get to visit the doctor and get well - playing Dallas. The Mavericks are just 2-10, taking their place now among the five-worst teams in the NBA. Dallas, though, is coming off a stunning road victory against the Wizards this past Tuesday. The Cavaliers' major problem is lack of defense. Cleveland has surrendered at least 112 points in 10 consecutive games. But now the Cavaliers draw the Mavericks, one of four teams in the NBA averaging less than triple-digits. Dallas is 1-5 at home. Among the Mavericks' home losses were defeats to the Hawks and Kings. While Dirk Nowitzki closes out his career in quiet fashion - averaging 10.2 points a game and shooting 40.2 percent from the floor - LeBron James is as strong as ever. James is averaging monster numbers across the board: 29.3 points, 60.1 percent shooting, 8.9 assists and seven rebounds. James will never forget Nowitizki and Dallas beating his Miami team in the NBA 2011 championships series. The Cavaliers also won't forget losing to the Mavericks in Dallas last Jan. 30 during their previous meeting. Cleveland is idle on Sunday so a full effort should be forthcoming.
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11-11-17 | UL-Lafayette +20 v. Ole Miss | 22-50 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette has been a quality Sun Belt Conference team under Mark Hudspeth going to a bowl game during five of his six seasons, including last season. The Ragin' Cajuns are in the bowl hunt again this season and should be the more motivated and fresher team. Lafayette averages nearly 30 points a game. The Ragin' Cajuns can take advantage of a Mississippi defense surrendering an average of nearly 42 points during their last six games. The Ragin' Cajuns should have a freshness, too, since they just had a bye two weeks ago. That was already their second bye of the season. Mississippi, on the other hand, will be playing for the seventh straight week. The Rebels are worn down and won't be taking this non-conference foe that serious with bigger games on deck - hosting Texas A&M next week and then concluding the regular season with their annual in-state rival Mississippi State on Thanksgiving.
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11-10-17 | Texas A&M v. West Virginia -6 | Top | 88-65 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
West Virginia is one of the best teams in the country. The Mountaineers won 28 games last season reaching the Sweet 16. West Virginia defeated five ranked teams, including second-ranked Kansas. Texas A&M finished 16-15 last season and didn't play in a postseason tournament. The Aggies are projected to be much improved this season even though they will be breaking in four new starters. The Aggies are young and not familiar with each other at this beginning stage. This is a rough way for the Aggies to begin the season. The Aggies also are going to be without Robert Williams, their best player, and point guard JJ Caldwell. Both are suspended. The Aggies are going to have problems with West Virginia's unique press especially so without their point guard, this being the first game and being unfamiliar with the Mountaineers.
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
Seattle isn't as good as it has been the past few years. Attrition has taken a toll on the Seahawks' defense. But the Seahawks are still a well above team. Arizona is a bottom feeder with Drew Stanton behind center. If the Seahawks didn't blow Sunday's game to the Redskins, this line would look much higher. Seattle was better than Washington, though, outgaining the Redskins by nearly 200 yards. The Seahawks couldn't overcome a franchise-record 16 penalties and Blair Walsh missing three field goals. Walsh was 12 of 13 in field goals prior to that game. The Seahawks are taking heavy criticism for that bad disappointing performance. They are in bounce back mold and I fully expect that to happen. Russell Wilson is having a huge season. Paul Richardson is having a breakout season joining Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett and Jimmy Graham to provide strong receivers for Wilson. Seattle's offensive line is upgrade with the addition of Pro Bowl left tackle Duane Brown. Thomas Rawls is healthy giving Seattle its best running back option. Arizona's defense is merely average. During their past four games, the Cardinals have gone against three good passing teams - the Eagles, Rams and Buccaneers. The Cardinals allowed an average of 419 yards through the air against those foes. Arizona has recovered only one fumble on the season and is tied for 25th in takeaways/giveaways at minus 4. The Cardinals' offensive line has started to play better. However, the Cardinals' attack now consists of just ancient Adrian Peterson running and Larry Fitzgerald catching short passes. Stanton is an immobile stiff, who can't hurt a defense with downfield passes. Peterson is 32, a senior citizen by running back age. He just ran a career-high 37 times this past Sunday. Now he's playing on a short week. His legs won't be there. The Seahawks aren't going to have a problem shutting down the Cardinals' scaled-back, limited attack and Arizona's defense isn't strong enough to contain Wilson and his weapons.
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11-09-17 | Pelicans v. Raptors -4.5 | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
Even though Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are both playing great, the Pelicans are weak at the wings and lack a good bench. They also have played an easy schedule. New Orleans is riding a three-game winning streak. All of those victories have been on the road. But those wins have come against the Mavericks, Bulls and Pacers. This marks the end of the Pelicans' four-game, seven day road swing. Their intensity could be down after already going 3-0 during the first three legs of the trip. The Pelicans' lone win against a quality opponent this season was against the struggling Cavaliers. New Orleans has not beaten an above .500 team all season. Toronto is 6-4, but battle tested with three of its defeats occurring to the Warriors, Spurs and Nuggets on the road. The Raptors' other loss was to the Wizards in their first game back at home following a six-game road trip. The Raptors have been home now for five days and are healthy with Serge Ibaka and Jonus Valanciunas back in the lineup. Valanciunas is playing well and can factor against Davis and Cousins. The Pelicans are going to have matchup problems at the wing against All-Star DeMar DeRozan, who is averaging 29 points in his last three games. Unlike New Orleans, Toronto should have its full intensity after almost blowing a big lead in a victory against the Bulls on Tuesday. The Raptors don't play again until Sunday when they begin a three-game road trip so a full effort should be there. The Raptors have swept the Pelicans each of the past two seasons.
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11-07-17 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Blazers | 98-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
Portland moved its record to 6-4 after beating Oklahoma City, 103-99, at home on Sunday. That was the Trail Blazers' first victory against a quality opponent. But just when you begin to believe the Trail Blazers are indeed a good team they disappoint. The Trail Blazers are now trying to win three in a row for the first time this season. Maybe they can defeat Memphis. But I'll take this many points to find out as I regard these teams as even and given Portland's below-the-radar big men injuries this becomes even a tougher matchup for the Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies are as rugged and physical as ever. They rank No. 3 defensively and have a much stronger bench than the Trail Blazers. Marc Gasol and Mike Conley are having big seasons. The Trail Blazers are going to have to compete on the boards against the Grizzlies minus injured power forward Al-Farouq Aminu and backup center Meyers Leonard. Memphis defeated the Clippers, 113-104 on Saturday, but then came up flat against the Lakers on Sunday losing 107-102 after a gallant comeback failed. So the Grizzlies should be highly focused for this game. Portland is a bit fat and happy having posted narrow home victories against the Lakers, 113-110, on Thursday and Thunder on Sunday. Not only did the Grizzlies defeat the Clippers, but they also have beaten the Warriors and Rockets twice. They are battle tested. Portland's victories have been against the Suns twice, Pacers, Lakers and Pelicans, who didn't have Anthony Davis, besides the Thunder win. So this is another step up game for the Trail Blazers. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Detroit a road favorite against the Packers at Lambeau Field where the Lions have lost nine of the past 10 times? It's true. That's what happens when Aaron Rodgers is out. Is this justified? The answer is no on many counts. Let's begin with the fact that Detroit is just a mediocre team. Much is being made of Green Bay having lost two in a row. Well the Lions have dropped three straight - home to the Panthers, at the Saints and home to the Steelers. The Lions are 3-4 with two of those victories coming against the Cardinals and Giants during the first two weeks of the season. The Lions can't run the ball - rushing for more than 96 yards just once - and have a below average defense ranking 23rd in points allowed and 22nd in yards given up. The Lions are without their best pass rusher, Kerry Hyder, and top run-defender, Haloti Ngata. Winning a division road game without a good running attack and defense is extremely difficult unless you have a superstar quarterback. Matthew Stafford is above average. He's not elite, though. The situation is against the Lions. The Packers desperately needed a bye to regroup. They've had two weeks to game plan and get healthy. Green Bay's offensive line is expected to be at full strength. Green Bay is 9-2 following a bye under Mike McCarthy. None of those losses came at home. The Packers have owned the Lions through the years winning 16 of the past 20 meetings. It's going to be cold. The Lions have become a warm weather team playing in a dome. All of this, though, is secondary to how Brett Hundley performs. This is the key. I say Hundley comes through here. Hundley was maybe the best quarterback in the league during preseason. OK, that was preseason facing vanilla defenses and backups. But he did display talent both with his arm and running ability. Now many are down on Hundley because of poor performances against the Vikings - when he suddenly was thrust into the game following Rodgers' broken collarbone - and versus the Saints. Those two teams have a combined record of 12-4 and rank third and 10th, respectively, in fewest points allowed per game. Their defenses are far superior to Detroit's defense. The Saints are giving up an average of 13 points during their last three games. This will be Hundley's second start. McCarthy and his ace offensive staff have had 15 days to work with Hundley and game plan for this matchup. Hundley not only will be fully assimilated into the offense, but adjustments will be made that feed into Hundley's strengths such as read-option plays. As added bonuses, Hundley has a healthy offensive line - something he wasn't close to having before - and the emergence of Aaron Jones has given Green Bay a respectable ground game. The Packers have had two of their three best rushing games during their last three games because of Jones, who has run for 413 yards and three touchdowns during this span. The Lions probably will try to take away Jones by putting an extra defender in the box forcing Hundley to beat them. Hundley can do that with one of the deepest receiving groups in the NFL headed by Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb. No Hundley isn't close to being Rodgers. But he has a balanced attack behind him, should be coached up with ample prep time and with a healthy offensive line that should control the line of scrimmage against a mediocre defense playing on the road.
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 32 m | Show |
Seattle's defense is down a notch from its elite status of the past few seasons. The Seahawks can't run the ball either unless it's Russell Wilson taking off on a scramble. But the Seahawks still will beat the Redskins by more than a touchdown being at home and given all of Washington's injuries on both sides of the ball. Seattle's defense still is well above average. The Redskins can't compete against it on the road with a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, a weak ground attack and two of their three tight ends injured, including Jordan Reed. There's a chance Washington could be minus four starting offensive linemen plus their top reserve lineman. Wilson is playing at the highest level. His receivers are stepping up especially Paul Richardson. Jimmy Graham is healthier and becoming a factor. The Redskins have key defensive injuries. They are without their best run stuffer, Jonathan Allen. They also are down linebacker Mason Foster and maybe their second-best cornerback, Bashaud Breeland. Special teams play has become an issue, too, for the Redskins.
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11-05-17 | Broncos +8 v. Eagles | 23-51 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
This is last stand time for the 3-4 Broncos. They have the right personnel to upset the Eagles, who are flying high at 7-1 and due to crash. Philadelphia may take this one for granted with the Broncos making the decision to start Brock Osweiler. The Eagles also have a much bigger game on deck next Sunday - a division game against the Cowboys. The Broncos rank ninth in rushing. They are fourth in time of possession. They can stay on the ground with a trio of decent running backs in C.J. Anderson, Jamaal Charles and Devontae Booker. This would limit Osweiler's exposure. Osweiler is helped by getting back wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders. The Eagles rank 27th in pass defense. Carson Wentz had a monster October throwing a franchise-best 14 TD passes. Wentz, though, is just a second-year QB. He can be loose with the ball and is going against the toughest defense he's faced all season. Denver gives up the fewest yards per game and second-fewest rushing yards per game. The Broncos' cornerbacks are so good they can cover one-on-one and Von Miller is a top edge pass rusher. The Eagles are without their No. 1 offensive lineman, Jason Peters.
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11-04-17 | Mavs +13.5 v. Wolves | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show | |
Dallas could be among the five worst teams in the NBA. But this spots sets up well for the Mavericks. Minnesota is fat and happy riding a three-game winning streak. The Timberwolves' last two victories were on the road against the Heat in overtime and Pelicans. Minnesota hosts Charlotte on Sunday. All of the Timberwolves' victories have been close. Their biggest margin of victory is six points. Dallas is 1-9. The reality of being a lottery team is sinking in to the Mavericks, but they still have prideful veterans such as Dirk Nowitzki. Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes are solid pros. Dennis Smith Jr. brings high upside at point guard. The Mavericks lost 99-94 to New Orleans last night. Dallas was hurt by missing 25 of 34 shots from 3-point range. Matthews had an off-shooting night. Look for the Mavericks to shoot better as Minnesota ranks last in defensive efficiency and defensive field goal percentage. |
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11-04-17 | LSU +21 v. Alabama | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show | |
Yes, LSU has hit some serious speed bumps this season. But the Tigers went into their bye last week winning their last three games beating Florida on the road, Auburn and Mississippi on the road. LSU isn't in Alabama's class. That's a given. But three touchdowns in this rivalry series is too much. Alabama hasn't been this big of a favorite against LSU in close to 25 years. The Tigers have a healthy Derrius Guice to run the ball, rarely commit turnovers - just one in their last three games - and have a very strong pass rush. LSU has the athletes and pride to keep this close.
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11-04-17 | Texas +7 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
Tom Herman is a great underdog coach. I see the Longhorns, with their stingy defense, hanging in all the way against the Horned Frogs. Texas has held four of their Big 12 foes - Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor - to its lowest scoring games of the season. The Longhorns handled Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph and Sam Darnold. They can take care of TCU QB Kenny Hill. TCU has been a big money-burner at home failing to cover 11 of the past 12 times.
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11-03-17 | Hornets v. Spurs -3 | Top | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
First the bad news. San Antonio has lost four in a row and won't have Kawhi Leonard, its best player. Now the good news. The Spurs competed well last night. Unfortunately for them they were up against the world champion Warriors, who were on their game. When Golden State is on its game no team can beat them. No team can really stay close either. The Spurs are extremely tough at home, continue to receive strong play from LaMarcus Aldridge and will be primed to stop the bleeding against Charlotte, a foe they have beaten the past 10 times at home. San Antonio still has a strong bench despite missing Leonard and Tony Parker. Aldridge was the only Spurs player to log more than 31 minutes last night. Aldridge gives San Antonio the best frontcourt player. He's having a strong season averaging 23.6 points and 8.6 rebounds. The loss to the Warriors was the first one at home for the Spurs. They are 2-1 at home with victories against Minnesota (107-99) and Toronto (101-97). Both of those teams are at least a level higher than the Hornets. Charlotte is coming off a 126-121 home win against Milwaukee two nights ago. That was the Hornets' worst defensive game of the year. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Hornets are a borderline playoff team in the much weaker Eastern Conference. I don't see them hanging close to the Spurs, who are in full stop-the-pain mode.
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11-03-17 | Pelicans -4.5 v. Mavs | 99-94 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
Dallas is one of the four worst teams in the NBA right now. The Mavericks are 1-8, their worst record since 1993-94. This proud franchise is in need of rebuild. The players know it. Rick Carlisle knows it. Mark Cuban knows it. All of the Mavericks' losses except one have been by five or more points. New Orleans is a serious playoff contender. No team can match the Pelicans' superstar Twin Towers of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Both rank among the top-five in scoring and rebounding. The Pelicans are going to hurt the Mavericks inside a lot. Dallas is one of the poorer rebounding teams in the league. The Pelicans, though, have lost consecutive games falling to the much-improved Magic and star-studded Timberwolves. This is the first of four road games in a row for New Orleans. The Pelicans should be focused and play with a great sense of urgency. That should ensure a victory here because the talent gap is huge. Dirk Nowitzki doesn't have much left. Rookie Dennis Smith Jr. is the Mavericks' main man now and he's mistake-prone with bad shooting percentages. The Mavericks don't have the components to take advantage of the Pelicans' major weakness, which is turnovers. Dallas ranks 29th in defensive field goal percentage. This is a major drop in class for the Pelicans after games versus the Cavaliers, Magic and Timberwolves. New Orleans has a good history of taking care of business against bad teams when on the road. The Pelicans have covered eight of the last 10 away times they've met a foe with a sub .500 record at home. |
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11-02-17 | Idaho +18 v. Troy | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Earlier this season, Troy became the first Sun Belt Conference team in history to crack The Associated Press Top 25. The Trojans acheived this by stunning LSU, 24-21, as a three-touchdown road 'dog on Sept. 30. The Trojans proceeded to lose their next game, 19-8, to South Alabama as 18-point home favorites. South Alabama is the one common foe Idaho and Troy have. The Vandals defeated South Alabama, 29-23, on the road. There are other reasons why I like the Vandals here in such a heavy underdog role. Situation, motivation, matchup analysis and line value all are handicapping factors. This is a dangerous spot for Troy. The Trojans celebrated their homecoming game with a 38-16 home victory against Georgia Southern this past Saturday. The win was significant because it marked the first time the Trojans have beat the Eagles since 1992. More important, it pushed the Trojans' record to 6-2 making them bowl eligible. It's a quick turnabout now for the Trojans playing on Thursday. You have to wonder how motivated they will be following that important victory? Idaho, though, won't have any problem getting up for this game. It's rare national exposure for the Vandals. They need to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible. It's also the Vandals' last season playing in the FBS. They drop down to FCS next season as part of a cost-cutting decision. Studying the matchup, I find Idaho to be underrated while Troy is perhaps perceived higher than it really should be due to the LSU victory. The Trojans are 6-2, but just 2-6 against the spread (ATS). Troy has a solid defense, but its offense has regressed. The Trojans have been without their best runner, Jordan Chunn, the past two games. Idaho has the quarterback edge with Matt Linehan. He's a pro prospect and on track to become Idaho's all-time leading passer. Linehan has completed nearly 61 percent of his throws with a 14-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's probably the best quarterback Troy has faced all season. Contrast Linehan with Troy quarterback Brandon Silvers, who has just a 5-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and been sacked 11 times. The Trojans average 25 points, which ranks them 89th. Idaho averages 23.6 points while giving up an average of 30.6 points. The Vandals' overall statistics are skewed by two terrible performances versus UNLV and Missouri. If you discount those games and in fairness throw out Idaho's 28-6 opening-week victory against Sacramento State, the Vandals would be surrendering 25.4 points a game. The oddsmaker is asking Troy to give up a lot of points in a game that has a relatively low total. The Trojans have scored more than 27 points three times this season. If they were to score 30 points they still would have a hard time covering this number considering Linehan's talent level that ensures Idaho of getting its share of points. Idaho often is overlooked. The Vandals quietly have covered 80 percent of their last 16 games going 12-3-1 ATS. Troy, on the other hand, has failed to cover during its past six home games.
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11-02-17 | Warriors -7 v. Spurs | Top | 112-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Even the great Gregg Popovich can't just snap his fingers and have the Spurs immediately turn things around and beat Golden State. The Spurs are at low ebb returning home for the first time in nine days having lost three in a row falling to the Magic, Pacers and Celtics, 108-94, this past Monday. Golden State also has started slow, but the Warriors got their mojo back in a big way in their last game destroying the Clippers, 141-113. The Warriors are at full strength while the Spurs remain down Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. The Spurs had to play without Leonard during the final three games of the Western Conference Finals against the Warriors and lost by an average margin of more than 20 points a game.
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11-01-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hornets | Top | 121-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
I prefer the Hornets taking points rather than laying especially against this opponent. The Bucks have beaten Charlotte during the past three meetings, including 103-94 at home 10 days ago. The Bucks beat the Hornets by nine points despite missing injured point guard Malcolm Brogdon, who is back from a sprained ankle. Giannis Antetokounmpo gives Milwaukee the best player on the court. Antetokounmpo has scored at least 28 points in every game while filling up all the statistical categories. He had 32 points and 14 rebounds in the earlier victory against the Hornets. Milwaukee lost at home to Oklahoma City last night. The Bucks were flat in that game. But only Kris Middleton logged more than 30 minutes. Look for a much stronger effort and performance from the Bucks here. Milwaukee is 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times when playing without rest. The Bucks also have covered in their last six visits to Charlotte.
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10-31-17 | Kings +5.5 v. Pacers | 83-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
The Pacers are coming off a surprising 97-94 win against the Spurs two days ago. They have the suddenly vulnerable Cavaliers on deck Wednesday. But first comes this home game against the 1-5 Kings. It's a dangerous spot for the Pacers, who once again will be without their best big man, Myles Turner. He's out for a sixth straight game due to a concussion and sore neck. Domantas Sabonis has played well taking over Turner's minutes. Sabonis, though, is questionable because of a head cold. The Kings are in rebuilt mode. But they want to maintain some respectability, so they added veterans George Hill, Zach Randolph and Vince Carter. Sacramento is in stop-the-pain mode after being embarrassed, 110-83, by the Wizards at home this past Sunday. Hill and Randolph were held out of that game in order to give younger players more minutes. But Hill and Randolph will play against the Pacers. This is the first game of a three-game road trip for the Kings - and their best chance to win. Following this game, the Kings play at Boston and Detroit. The Celtics and Pistons are each 5-2.
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10-30-17 | Magic +7.5 v. Pelicans | 115-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
You may not have noticed it because they are below the radar and don't have a superstar, but the Orlando Magic are a much improved team. The Magic are the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA at 117.2 points a game. The Magic have been consistent in this, too, scoring at least 113 points in each of their six games. The 3-3 Pelicans are coming off an impressive 123-101 home rout of the Cavaliers. New Orleans has a bigger game on deck against fellow Western Conference foe, Minnesota, at home on Wednesday. It's easy to overrate the Pelicans because they have a pair of superstar big men. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are two of just five players in the league to average 25 points and 10 rebounds. Jrue Holiday is a decent point guard. But get beyond those three and New Orleans has questionable talent. Orlando lost 120-113 to Charlotte on the road Sunday. It's so early in the season and the Magic have a lot of youth so fatigue shouldn't factor. Before losing to the Hornets, the Magic had won three in a row, including defeating the Spurs and Cavaliers. The Magic beat the Spurs by 27 points and the Cavaliers by 21. You are worthy of respect if you win big against those two teams. Nikola Vucevic can be counted on for a double/double and Aaron Gordon is looking like one of the most improved players in the league. Evan Fournier can score and Jonathon Simmons is an intriguing talent, who scored 27 points against the Hornets. Note, too, that Orlando has defeated New Orleans in four of the last five meetings.
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10-30-17 | Spurs +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 94-108 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
When the games mattered, the Spurs did not lose three in a row during the regular season all last season. But now the Spurs have dropped consecutive games falling to the Magic and Pacers. I don't see them losing three straight. San Antonio has beaten Boston 11 in a row with six coming at TD Garden. Yet the oddsmaker sees no Kawhi Leonard and a hot Boston club that has won four in a row. The Celtics' win streak, however, has come against the 76ers, Knicks, Bucks and Heat minus Hassan Whiteside. The Bucks are the only one of that group with a winning record. The Spurs have a deep bench, Pau Gasol is playing better and LaMarcus Aldridge is off to a great start scoring more than 20 points in each of the Spurs' six games
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10-29-17 | Texans v. Seahawks -6 | 38-41 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
Going into Seattle is always rough. It's made rougher for the Texans because the Seahawks are playing well - three straight victories - and Houston's focus could be off due to comments made by team owner Bob McNair. McNair's "inmates running the prison" comment has caused a huge distraction among the Texans. Many plan to protest before the game. The Seahawks still have an elite veteran defense. Deshaun Watson is having a monster season, but he's a rookie going into the lion's den here. Houston is 1-6 ATS following a victory.
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10-29-17 | Falcons -4 v. Jets | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 95 h 9 m | Show | |
OK, I get that Atlanta is having a painful Super Bowl hangover. The Falcons have lost three in a row - all to AFC East opponents. Now the Falcons draw the weakest AFC East foe, the Jets. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Falcons. And the Jets are a good foe for them to get well against. I don't see any advantage the Jets have in this matchup with the Falcons holding major edges at the skill position spots. I also like the Falcons' defense better than the Jets particularly with Vic Beasley back in the lineup from injury. Matt Ryan isn't having a magical year like last season. But he's still Matt Ryan, which rates far above Josh McCown and his motley crew of below average wide receivers. The Falcons should dominate with Ryan, Julio Jones and Devontae Freeman. The line is fairly priced, too, because of the Falcons' losing streak.
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10-28-17 | NC State +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-35 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
I'm not a big fan of Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush especially when the Irish are going to have problems running the ball against North Carolina State's stout defense. The Wolfpack haven't allowed more than 116 yards rushing in any game. They rank sixth in the nation in run defense. No foe has scored more than 25 points on the Wolfpack either. That sets up well when taking a touchdown. Senior North Carolina State quarterback Ryan Finley isn't flashy. But he is efficient and can be trusted not to turn the ball over. He has yet to be intercepted in 248 attempts. North Carolina State has covered its past five road games.
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10-26-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -7 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan has lost five straight close games. That's not only tough on the record but the morale. Just ask the San Francisco 49ers. They also had lost five consecutive close games before getting drilled 40-10 by the Cowboys this past Sunday. I understand this is an apples and oranges comparison. Those teams have nothing to do with each other. But I point it out as an illustration of how tough it is to hang close for a sixth consecutive game after losing the first five times. The Eagles are going to have a tough time denting Northern Illinois' stout defense, the best in the MAC. Northern Illinois has a strong pass rush led by Sutton Smith, who has 8 1/2 sacks. The Eagles have the worst third-down conversion rate in the MAC. Northern Illinois has a balanced attack. Freshman quarterback Marcus Childers has been terrific since becoming the starter three games ago throwing for 594 yards and a 7-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ration in his three starts.
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10-25-17 | Pacers v. Thunder -14.5 | Top | 96-114 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
Not only are the Thunder far superior to the Pacers - especially with big man Myles Turner out for Indiana - but the spot sets up perfect for Oklahoma City. The Pacers just stunned the Timberwolves, 130-107, on Tuesday night. Now this young Pacers squad has a second straight road game playing at Chesapeake Energy Arena, one of the toughest venues in the league. The Pacers then return home and don't play again until Sunday. They've been on the road since Saturday. I can't see the Pacers producing a strong effort here. I do see the Thunder motivated for a kill spot. Oklahoma City has been sitting around stewing since losing 115-113 at home on Sunday to Minnesota when Andrew Wiggins banked in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give the Timberwolves a stunning victory. The Thunder were victimized by several bad calls at the end in what was one of the worst officiated games of the season. A subplot to this matchup is Paul George going against his former teammates. George will be psyched for this matchup as he didn't like how his exit was handled by the Pacers. This would be a tough matchup for the Pacers even if they had Turner, their best player, shot-blocker and rim-protector. Without Turner, who remains out with a concussion, the Pacers may be the worst team at defending the paint. Minnesota scored more than half of its 107 points in the paint against Indiana last night. Russell Westbrook, George and Carmelo Athony can take advantage. These three superstars would like to put on a show for their home fans. This is a golden opportunity for them.The stage is set.
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10-25-17 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets -1.5 | 1-5 | Win | 140 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
Columbus is in circle-the-wagons mode after dropping the first two games of their homestand. Those defeats have come to the Kings and Lightning. Those two teams are a combined 15-2-2. Now the Blue Jackets are dropping way down in class hosting the Sabres, who are a bit fat and happy having won two in a row. This includes a 1-0 victory against the Red Wings at home last night. It's the first time the Sabres have won two in a row this season. Even with those two wins, Buffalo still is just 9-23 in its past 32 games. The Blue Jackets last played on Saturday. They will be well rested and prepared. Columbus has won the past eight times it has played on three or more days rest.
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10-25-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Heat | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
Miami finished last season strong, but is a lackluster 2-1 this season with its victories coming against probably lottery-bound Indiana and Atlanta. The Heat's loss occurred against Orlando. Now the Heat face their strongest opponent by far - San Antonio. And the Heat have to play the Spurs without their best player, center Hassan Whiteside. He remains out with a left knee bruise. That's not Miami's only injury. Goran Dragic, the Heat's second-best player, has a bruised thigh and Dion Waiters has a sore ankle. Oddsmakers are downgrading the Spurs because they don't have injured Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker. San Antonio, though, has outstanding depth. LaMarcus Aldridge has handled the heavy lifting averaging 24.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Dejounte Murray has filled in admirably well for Parker at point guard averaging 13.3 points, a team-high 9.7 rebounds and a team-high 4.7 assists. Parker would be hard-pressed to match those numbers. San Antonio also has covered eight of the last nine meetings between the two clubs.
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10-24-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
As great as he is, Clayton Kershaw does not have a good history in the postseason. He's 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 playoff appearances, including 17 starts. If minus 1 1/2 runs were attached to Kershaw's last 11 starts the Dodgers would be just 6-5 in those games. Kershaw is going against a Houston offense that led the majors in runs, batting average and slugging percentage. The Astros also hit the second-most home runs. This is remarkable in that they had the fewest strikeouts of any team. The Astros also can run finishing eighth in stolen bases with 88. Jose Altuve gives Houston the best player in baseball. The Dodgers are in a vulnerable spot in this Game 1. LA hasn't played in four days. Batting practice can't make up for that long delay. The Astros have had two days off. Their batteries are still charged up after they got past the Yankees in seven games by winning Games 6 and 7. The Dodgers were fortunate to have met the Diamondbacks, who lacked playoff experience, and sleepwalking Cubs in the postseason. The Astros are a clear step up, winner of 101 games and with two studs heading their rotation, Dallas Keuchel and Justin Verlander. Keuchel goes here. The AL Cy Young Award winner of two seasons ago, has a lifetime playoff mark of 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six career postseason appearances, including five starts. Houston is 11-3 the past 14 times Keuchel has pitched on the road. Given Kershaw's poor postseason history, the starting pitching matchup is far closer than this price indicates. The Astros have the better offense and are in good spot with the Dodgers possibly being rusty and overconfident after dominating the NL playoffs. I do give the Dodgers a checkmark for their late-inning relief pitching. So I believe the best way to play this game is taking the Astros on the run line especially in what's being projected as a low-scoring game.
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10-22-17 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 119-112 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
The Lakers not only were last in the NBA defensively in giving up points per 100 possessions last season, but they had the worst mark in that key defensive category this decade. LA's defense doesn't look much better this season either. But all the publicity is about rookie point guard Lonzo Ball. He is an exciting talent. But he's also a poor shooter - 13-for-33 from the floor - and he doesn't play much defense. Same with his backcourt mate Brandon Ingram. They could be the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA. The Lakers were blown out in their opener by the Clippers and then defeated the Suns, who could be the worst team in the NBA. Now they get the Pelicans. New Orleans is dropping way down in class. The Pelicans opened with a road loss against the unbeaten Grizzlies, who just upset the Warriors last night, and then lost at home to the Warriors, 128-120. The Pelicans played well in that defeat. They would have beaten many teams with that display just not the defending world champions. The Pelicans are putting a lot of emphasis on getting their first victory here. They should dominate the frontcourt with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. Both monsters are off to strong starts as they get more and more comfortable with each other. Davis is averaging 34 points and 17.5 rebounds while Cousins is putting up 31.5 points and12 rebounds per game.
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10-22-17 | Broncos +1.5 v. Chargers | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 2 m | Show | |
The Chargers have yet to win or cover a game at home this season. It's not a surprise the Chargers are 0-3 at StubHub Center since they have no home field advantage in LA. Playing there is almost like being on the road. Philip Rivers certainly isn't fond of the team's new venue. He has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to 7-to-2 on the road. Rivers is having a down year for the second straight season. He ranks a below average 18th in passer ratings. The Broncos give up the fewest yards per game in the NFL. Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are one of the best, if nto the best, cornerback tandem in the league. The Broncos have beaten the Chargers 11 of the last 13 times they've met, including a victory opening week. The Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games. Denver is sure to be fired-up, too, after laying an egg on national TV this past Sunday night in a shocking home loss to the Giants.
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10-22-17 | Jets v. Dolphins -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
The linesmaker opened this game Miami minus 3 at home. This basically is saying then that these two teams are even if you factor in about a three-point home field edge for the Dolphins. My checkmarks give the Dolphins far more edges than the Jets. The situational element also favors Miami. The Jets are coming off a huge effort and a near-victory against their arch-rival the Patriots. The Dolphins have quick revenge after being embarrassed by the Jets in Week 3. The Jets thoroughly outplayed the Dolphins in their 20-6 win. The Dolphins were lucky they weren't shut out. But there were extenuating circumstances. Hurricane Irma had caused the Dolphins to not play opening week. The Dolphins then went to the West Coast and beat the Chargers in Week 2. Then they had to fly to the East Coast to play the Jets. Miami's offense still was a work in progress so early in the season with Jay Cutler getting in sync with his new team. The Dolphins' offense isn't good by any means. But they have some stability now with all that back-and-forth traveling, including a trip to London in Week 4, finally ending. The Dolphins showed a lot of heart coming back from a 17-0 halftime deficit to upset the Falcons on the road this past Sunday. Cutler did enough for Miami to win that game and Jay Ajayi had his best game of the season with 130 yards rushing. Ajayi will be the best running back on the field. Jarvis Landry is the best wideout of the two teams. DaVante Parker would be the second-best wideout if he's recovered from an ankle injury. Josh McCown is not better than Cutler. The Dolphins definitely have the better defense ranking third in fewest points allowed per game and 11th in fewest yards given up. The Jets were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns two weeks ago. Cleveland outgained New York by 202 yards and had eight more first downs. The Browns were done in by three turnovers and two missed field goals. This is the spot to recognize the Jets for being who we thought they were - a terrible team.
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10-22-17 | Saints -5.5 v. Packers | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 51 m | Show | |
No player is more important to his team than Aaron Rodgers is to Green Bay. But the Packers' problems, unfortunately, go beyond Rodgers. Green Bay has cluster injury problems on the offensive line and in the secondary. The Packers are still shell shocked after losing Rodgers for the season with a broken collarbone. They played their worst game in years in losing to the Vikings this past Sunday. The Packers have their bye next week. They'll need it. They aren't ready for this week. The Saints are playing their best ball in years winning three in a row. The Saints have defeated the Panthers, Dolphins and Lions by a combined score of 106-51 during this span. The Saints beat the Panthers and Dolphins on the road. The Saints have only lost the ball three times. So they shouldn't beat themselves here. Drew Brees is as good as ever. His offensive line is improved and he has two good running backs and a deep group of wide receivers, who can take advantage of Green Bay's thin secondary. Green Bay lost six of seven games when it played offenses ranked 15th or better in offensive efficiency last year. And that was with Rodgters. New Orleans has improved its defense, too. It's now to the point where it is respectable. Look for the Saints to do plenty of blitzing against Brett Hundley, set to make his first pro start. Hundley has yet to prove that he has good pocket presence. The Packers had to finish against the Vikings with three third-stringers in their offensive line - left tackle Justin McCray, left guard Lucas Patrick and right tackle Ulrick John. McCray and John were terrible. This isnt' a question of good players having an off-game. These guys are backups who aren't nearly talented enough to be starters.
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10-21-17 | Wyoming v. Boise State -14 | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 5 m | Show | |
Boise State was sailing along last season unbeaten and ranked 13th in the country. Then the Broncos got upset, 30-28, by Wyoming in Laramie. It was a devastating loss the Broncos haven't forgotten. Wyoming still has Josh Allen, an elite quarterback. But the Cowboys are down weapons. Allen no longer has Brian Hill, Tanner Gentry and Jacob Hollister to help boost his numbers. The Cowboys have played a weak schedule. Their best opponent during their past four games was Oregon and they lost to the Ducks, 49-13, at home. Boise State has momentum and confidence after upsetting San Diego State, 31-14, on the road last week. The Broncos also defeated BYU on the road two weeks ago. Before losing to Wyoming last year, Boise State had beaten the Cowboys 10 consecutive times. The Broncos' last three victories against the Cowboys were by 20, 49 and 41 points.
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10-21-17 | Spurs -9.5 v. Bulls | 87-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
Even if Kawhi Leonard doesn't play, the Spurs should win this game by double-digits. The Bulls were looking like the worst team entering the season - and things have gotten even worse for them. Already down Zach LaVine and Kris Dunn, the Bulls now are without Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis. The Bulls JV roster can't compete with the Spurs. The question here for San Antonio is motivation. I believe the Spurs will have it. They've had problems in the past at United Center, including losing to the Bulls in Chicago last season. San Antonio should be well-prepared. The Spurs last played on Wednesday. They are off on Sunday. So the effort should be there. Certainly the talent gap is there.
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10-20-17 | Magic +2 v. Nets | 121-126 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
Orlando actually looked impressive in holding off Miami during its opening game victory. That was the first time the Magic had won its season opener since 2012. The Magic really would like to build off that momentum. They have a great opportunity here in their second game. Brooklyn is even worse than Orlando and just lost sparkplug point guard Jeremy Lin. The Nets lost 39 of 46 games that Lin missed last season. It was extremely depressing for the Nets to see Lin ruputre the patella tendon in his right knee during their 140-131 season-opening loss to the Pacers. As you can tell by that score, the Nets still aren't playing any defense. Orlando has the better lineup with Elfrid Payton, Terrence Ross, Even Fournier, Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon, who is primed for a breakout season.
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Sacramento has missed the playoffs for the last 11 seasons. The Kings aren't going to end that playoff drought this season either. But the Kings have better team chemistry and morale after cutting the umblical cord with temperamental DeMarcus Cousins. Sacramento is more team-oriented without their one star The Kings have a blend of promising young talent go with three veterans that were imported - Zach Randolph, George Hill and Vince Carter. These three are pros who know how to win, play hard and have a lot of pride. The Kings should be fired-up for their home opener and they catch the Rockets in a prime letdown spot. Houston rallied to upset the Warriors, 122-121, late last night. It's going to be difficult for the Rockets to produce even a "B" level performance against a foe that is hard to take serious. The Rockets also could be looking ahead to their home-opener, which is their next game.
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10-18-17 | 76ers +7 v. Wizards | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Memo to oddsmakers: Tank time is over for the 76ers. Given the 76ers' awesome young talent - all healthy at last - and the horrific injury to Gordon Hayward it wouldn't shock me if the 76ers made a run at the Atlantic Division title this season. Philadelphia finished last season covering 13 of its last 17 road games. The 76ers showed they are serious about winning this season upgrading their bench with veterans J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson to go with Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz and Dario Saric. The Wizards have failed to cover in their last EIGHT season-openers. Their rotation is down Markieff Morris, which hurts their defense that wasn't very good last season.
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10-15-17 | Patriots -9.5 v. Jets | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 8 m | Show |
There's actually a bit of line value in taking the Patriots with the Jets riding an improbable three-game win streak. Credit to the Jets for beating the Dolphins and Jaguars. They were fortunate, though, to defeat the winless Browns. The Jets are putting forth an effort. They will give their best shot here in this division rivalry. However, they are no match for the Patriots. The talent gap between these two offenses is the size of the Grand Canyon. Tom Brady remains a top-three quarterback. He's leading the NFL in passing yards and has the second-highest quarterback rating. The Patriots have outstanding wide receivers and excellent running back versatility and depth. Rob Gronkowski should be able to play this week, too. The Jets have a popgun offense made worse in that their best runner, Bilal Powell, isn't expected to play. The Patriots are on extra rest since they played last Thursday. The Patriots' defense finally showed some improvement against a dangerous Tampa Bay offense. Belichick should be able to make further fixes with the added preparation time. The Patriots' disappointing cornerbacks shouldn't have any problems handling the Jets' non-descript wide receivers. This is a kill spot for the Patriots. They're not going to let up against this hated foe either.
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10-15-17 | Bears v. Ravens -5 | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 17 m | Show | |
Tough spot for the Bears traveling on a short week. Baltimore plays much better at home. The Ravens are 11-0 versus foes starting a rookie QB against them, which is the case here with the Bears and Mitch Trubisky. |
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10-14-17 | New Mexico +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
Fresno State went 1-11 last season and 3-9 two years ago. But now there actually is bowl talk surrounding the Bulldogs. Why is this? Because Fresno State is 2-0 in the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs are improved from last season. But let's not jump ahead of ourselves with this team. Fresno State's two conference victories have been against Nevada and San Jose State, one of the worst teams in the country. Nevada is way down, too, this season. Fresno State shouldn't be favored against New Mexico. The Lobos had a bye last week. They rolled past Air Force, 56-38, two weeks ago in their last game. The Lobos put up 509 yards on just 50 offensive snaps against Air Force. I don't see Fresno State being able to handle New Mexico's unique option schemes. Look for the Bulldogs to get exposed here.
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10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show | |
This spot sets up great for Minnesota. The Gophers opened the season going 3-0 in P.J. Fleck's first year with the school. But Minnesota has lost its first two Big Ten games laying an egg against Maryland and then blowing a fourth quarter lead against Purdue on the road last week. So this is a huge stop-the-pain game for Fleck and the Gophers. They catch Michigan State on the road a second straight week and off a victory against arch-rival Michigan last Saturday. Michigan State was a two-touchdown 'dog in that game. Can you say letdown for the Spartans? I can. It's the first time the Spartans are playing outside of Michigan. Minnesota should draw a huge crowd as this is a night game. The Spartans were a road favorite three times last season. They not only failed to cover each of those games, but lost straight-up. The Gophers hold a key edge on the Spartans in passing and pass defense. Minnesota is averaging nearly three yards more per completion than Michigan State and its defense is giving up 2.3 fewer yards on pass completions.
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10-14-17 | Kansas +22.5 v. Iowa State | 0-45 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 11 m | Show | |
Kansas has lost 42 straight road games. I'm not asking the Jayhawks to win here. They just don't have to lose by more than three touchdowns. Kansas actually has covered five of its last six Big 12 Conference games. But I'm banking more on a huge letdown from Iowa State. That certainly would be understandable after the Cyclones stunned then third-raked Oklahoma, 38-31, on the road last Saturday. That was one of the biggest wins in Iowa State history. The Cyclones aren't good enough to celebrate all week and then beat Kansas by more than three touchdowns. Iowa State only beat Kansas, 31-24, on the road last season. Before upsetting Oklahoma, the Cyclones had lost two of three, both at home.
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 53 m | Show |
OK, I'm sold now that Cam Newton is the MVP Cam Newton of two years ago. He's thrown for 651 yards and accounted for seven touchdowns during the last two weeks. Carolina is averaging 30 points during this span. The Eagles' secondary is well below average and their pass rush is down without injured Fletcher Cox. He's missed the last two games and isn't likely to return to the lineup on a short week. Carolina has held five of its last seven opponents to 20 points or less at home. The Eagles are short on running backs with Wendall Smallwood injured and Darren Sproles out for the season. The Eagles also will be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the best offensive tackles in the NFL. He suffered a concussion this past Sunday. Philadelphia has failed to cover in seven of its last 10 away contests. It's a big disadvantage for the road team playing on Thursday because of the short week. In the Eagles' case, this is made worse by facing a non-division foe. |
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10-09-17 | Edmonton -7 v. Montreal | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 102 h 35 m | Show |
Edmonton overachieved when it opened the season 7-0. But the Eskimos aren't as bad as their current six-game losing streak shows with five of the defeats coming to Calgary, Winnipg and Saskatchewan. Those teams own the three best records in the CFL. Look for the Eskimos to halt their losing streak against Montreal, the worst team in the CFL. The Alouettes haven't been good for a few years. They've struggled offensively, but had a decent defense. Now their defense has fallen apart surrendering an average of 38 points per game during their last seven games, all losses and non-covers. Montreal's offense remains bad, too, failing to break the 20-point barrier in all but one of those seven defeats. Montreal management tried to shake things up firing head coach Jacques Chapdelaine and defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe a couple of weeks ago. That hasn't helped. The Alouettes have lost their last two games by a combined 62 points. Edmonton needs to improve its ground attack. The Eskimos took a key step to doing just that trading for C.J. Gable, who just gained 157 yards on 18 carries and scored two touchdowns for Hamilton last week. Gable should rev up Edmonton's offense. The Eskmos have covered six of the last seven in the series.
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | 17-14 | Loss | -114 | 80 h 49 m | Show | |
I never thought I would be writing these words this season, but the Jets are going for their third win in a row. Don't expect them to get it. The Jets have defeated the Dolphins and Jaguars in overtime last week. Both wins were achieved at home. They have their bigget game of the season going next week when they host the Patriots. This marks the Jets' lone road game during a four-week span. The Browns' roster is better than one AFC team - the Jets. Cleveland's defense will be bolstered by the return of lineman Myles Garrett, the No. 1 overall draft pick. It's an added bonus if nose guard Danny Shelton and linebacker Jamie Colllins also are able to play. The winless Browns have a much stronger sense of urgency than the Jets for this one and they are home. It's not too much to ask Cleveland to simply win this game against a team where they hold a talent edge on in the offensive line and defensively. The Jets are one of the few teams that also doesn't hold an edge against the Browns skill position-wise.
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10-08-17 | Jaguars v. Steelers -8 | 30-9 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 48 m | Show | |
The Steelers play much better at home particularly Ben Roethlisberger, whose passer rating is 24 points higher at Heniz Field since 2014. During the past four years, Roethlisberger has a 62-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio at home compared to only 24-to-23 on the road. Le'Veon Bell is coming off his best game after a slow start rushing for 144 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens. Bell should be in line for another big game versus a Jacksonville defense that ranks last in run defense allowing 165.5 yards on the ground per game. Bell's running should set up Roethlisberger's play-action. The Jaguars seem better coached just because they've figured out their best way to win is run the ball and let Blake Bortles be a game manager rather than a gunslinger. The Jaguars' defense has gotten better. But it's not strong enough to carry a weak offense. The Steelers are intimidating and play with a swagger defensively at home. Their offense can put up points fast taking the ball out of Leonard Fournette's hands and forcing Bortles to beat them. That won't happen in Pittsburgh. Bortles has been the most turnover-prone quarterback in the league with a knack for throwing pick-sixes. The Jaguars had to lose a lot of confidence by being outplayed and losing to the lowly Jets last week. This is a kill spot for the Steelers. They've buried much stronger teams that the Jaguars at home.
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10-07-17 | Alabama -25.5 v. Texas A&M | 27-19 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
Alabama has outscored SEC foes, 125-3, this season. The Crimson Tide should win this game by at least four touchdowns. Texas A&M has an inexperienced secondary that ranks near the bottom giving up nearly 300 passing yards a game. Alabama should have no problem rolling up 500 yards with its balanced attack. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Texas A&M failed to score a touchdown against the Crimson Tide. The Aggies are starting a true freshman quarterback, Kellen Mond. Alabama gives up the fewest points in the country and ranks second in run defense. Mond doesn't have a good offensive line nor receivers to rely on.
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10-06-17 | Golden Knights v. Stars -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
The Stars still have offensive stars with Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov and Martin Hanzal. Now their defense should be improved with Ken Hitchcock as coach and Ben Bishop in goal. Look for the Stars to be much improved after a highly disappointing season last year. The Golden Knights are making their NHL debut - and it's on the road. The Golden Knights went for youth and defense in their expansion draft. I don't see them keeping up with the Stars here.
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10-03-17 | Twins +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
The Yankees have loads of young talent. But that young talent is now on the playoff stage for the first time with all the pressure on them. The Twins aren't flashy. They don't have the power, or rising superstarts, the Yankees do. But they don't beat themselves and are tough on the road going 44-37. The pitching matchup is 23-year-old Luis Severino, making his first playoff start, against veteran Ervin Santana. This isn't a fade on Severino, who had his breakout season. But more a value play to get 1 1/2 runs with the Twins figuring Santana will keep them in the game. Santana went 10-3 on the road with a 2.71 ERA in 17 away outings. He's been solid versus the Yankees the past three seasons posting a 3.16 ERA in 25 2/3 innings.
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 98 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants are in must-win mode at 0-3. They should have beaten the Eagles last week. The Giants allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL last season and their defense remains top-rate. Offense has been a major problem for the Giants. But things should click better now that Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy. The timing is good here for the Giants because the Buccaneers have a cluster injury problem on defense with their top defenders injured. Likely out for sure are linebackers Lavonte David and Kwon Alexander. The Buccaneers also could be missing their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy and Chris Baker, along with cornerbacks Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves. Promising pass rusher Noah Spence also is hurt with a separated shoulder. Eli Manning has never lost to Tampa Bay going 5-0. The Buccaneers have failed to cover eight of the last nine times when laying more than two points. The Giants won 11 games last season on their way to making the playoffs. The Buccaneers last made the postseason in 2007. The timing is ripe here for the Giants to get back on track against an inconsistent Bucs offense and extremely banged-up defense.
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10-01-17 | Eagles v. Chargers | 26-24 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
At 0-3 this is the Chargers' season. They catch the Eagles off a big division win against the Giants in which the Eagles were outgained by nearly two yards per play. The Chargers easily could be 2-1 instead of 0-3 if not for kicking mistakes by rookie Younghoe Koo. Philip Rivers is a high level QB. He's coming off one of the worst games of his career with a 37.2 passer rating and three interceptions against the Chiefs. I believe Rivers will bounce back strong here against an Eagles defense that is vulnerable in the secondary due to injuries and probably will be without its best defensive lineman, injured Fletcher Cox. The Chargers have a huge receiving edge with Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin operating against Rasul Douglas and Jalen Mills. The Eagles lost their most versatile threat and a top punt returner when Darren Sproles was injured against the Giants and lost for the season. Philly struggles to run the ball. Sproles was their best player in space. Carson Wentz has been sacked 11 times. Sparked by Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, two of the top pass rushers in the league, the Chargers have recorded 11 sacks.
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10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
The Cardinals have allowed Carson Palmer to be sacked 11 times, the fourth-highest total in the NFL. Palmer could have more trouble now that the left side of his offensive line has been ruled out as neither left tackle Mike Iupati nor left guard Alex Boone will play. Boone is out with a pectoral injury while Iupati was put on IR. Palmer is past his prime and doesn't have his security blanket, David Johnson. The absence of Johnson greatly weakens not only the Cardinals' ground attack, but also its passing. Johnson is the best pass catching starting running back in football. Arizona's receiving corps is banged-up, too, as neither John Brown nor JJ. Nelson are 100 percent. The 49ers got their offense going against the Rams scoring 39 points while finally showing a grasp of Kyle Shanahan's new offense. The 49ers' defense is improved from last year and better than it showed against the Rams, who are the most improved offensive team in the league. The 49ers have had extra rest and practice time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are on a short week having played this past Monday night. The Cardinals haven't been very good at home either failing to cover 12 of their last 18 home games.
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10-01-17 | Bengals -3 v. Browns | Top | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
The Bengals are down this year. But they still are two levels higher than the Browns, who are 1-18 in their last 19 games. The Bengals have dominated this series winning and covering the last five times with every win during this span occurring by at least 13 points. Cincinnati has a much stronger defense than Cleveland and its skill position players are superior, too. The Browns have no wide receiver near the level of A.J. Green. Corey Coleman is Cleveland's top wideout and he's out. Joe Mixon also is better than any running back Cleveland has. I'm not an Andy Dalton fan, but he rates much higher than rookie Deshone Kizer. Dalton has thrown nine TD passes with no interceptions during his last four games against the Browns. The Browns were missing their best defensive player, linebacker Jamie Collins, last week due to a concussion. It's an added plus for the Bengals if Collins is out again. |
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10-01-17 | Rams +6.5 v. Cowboys | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
Did you know the Rams are leading the NFL in scoring? It's true. After averaging a league-low 14 points last season, the Rams are putting up 35.7 points per game. The key is monster improvement from second-year quarterback Jared Goff. He was hindered by Jeff Fisher's neanderthal coaching last year. New coach, QB guru Sean McVay, has helped raise Goff's passer rating from 63.6 to 118.2. That's the largest increase ever for a QB going into his second season. Todd Gurley is a major factor now that defenses no longer can stack the line against him. The Cowboys have injuries in their secondary and are coming off a Monday night road win against the Cardinals. This is a short week for the Cowboys and a flat spot for them. Dallas hosts the Packers next week in a marquee matchup.
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV -12 | Top | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 93 h 18 m | Show |
UNLV received a lot of bad publicity for losing to Howard in its first game. The Rebels were caught looking ahead to a revenge game against Idaho the following week. The Rebels beat Idaho and then were bashed by Ohio State this past Saturday. But now there couldn't be more of a difference as the Rebels go from on the road against the Buckeyes to hosting San Jose State. The Spartans are one of the worst teams in the country. The Rebels are a borderline bowl team. They can't afford a loss here and are aware of the spread after losing to Howard as a 45-point favorite. The Rebels have the offense to pour it on the Spartans, who give up 45.2 points per game and whose defense has been on the field the most of any team in the country by a wide margin. Utah State just beat the Spartans by 51 points this past Saturday. UNLV isn't strong defensively, but San Jose State averages fewer than 17 points a game and has quarterback problems. This is a lay-up game for the Rebels and they won't take their foot off the gas with the recent loss to Howard still fresh.
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09-30-17 | Navy v. Tulsa +7.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 53 m | Show | |
The line is inflated because Navy is 2-0 in the American Athletic Conference already and Tulsa went 1-3 in non-league and is off a bad home loss to New Mexico. The Golden Hurricane, though, are much better than how they looked against the Lobos. They've also played the tougher schedule going against a pair of high-powered offenses in Oklahoma State and Toledo. Navy is a one-dimensional option team. Tulsa has a balanced attack with quarterback Chad President and D'Angelo Brewer, who will be the best running back on the field. If the Midshipmen key on Brewer, President can hurt them through the air. Navy ranks 81st in pass defense. Tulsa has yet to play its best game. I say it comes here at home in their AAC opener.
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