Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-14 | Phoenix Suns v. Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 0 m | Show |
The Suns have been one of the biggest surprises in the league going 21-13. However, the Suns are 0-2 versus the Grizzlies losing to Memphis by an average of 14 points.
The Grizzlies are playing better, covering seven of their last nine including the past four, and catch the Suns dealing with a major injury. Phoenix is 5-5 without guard Eric Bledsoe, its second leading scorer. Bledsoe is out indefinitely with a knee injury. The Suns are 5-5 without him. Phoenix pulled out a victory at Minnesota two nights ago scoring the last seven points en route to a 104-103 win against the Timberwolves. This spot isn't so favorable as it marks Phoenix's third road game in four days. The Suns are at Detroit on Saturday, which is an easier game for them so coach Jeff Hornacek may gear up for that matchup by playing his reserves more. Mike Conley is having a career year for the Grizzlies, who have received improved bench play and solid scoring and rebounding from veteran Zach Randolph. |
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01-09-14 | Arizona State v. USC +4 | 79-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Arizona State has problems with up-tempo teams and catches USC, off a humiliating 107-73 loss to UCLA this past Sunday. The Trojans can't wait to get back on the court after suffering through nearly a week of embarrassment. This has been a close series with seven of the last nine games determined on the last two possessions. The home team is 10-4-1 ATS. USC is helped by getting back J.T. Terrell from suspension.
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01-09-14 | Pepperdine +15.5 v. BYU | Top | 72-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
These two teams met just 10 days ago and Pepperdine knocked off BYU, 80-74.
Revenge means something, but this line is too out of whack especially since the Cougars might be without star freshman forward Eric Mika, who is averaging 16 points and six boards per game. He suffered a hip bruise in BYU's last game, an 87-53 win against San Diego. BYU has failed to cover 22 of the last 29 times when winning its previous game by more than 20 points. Pepperdine is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games. The Wave can take advantage of Mika's possible absence with big men Stacy Davis and Brendan Lane. |
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01-08-14 | Washington Wizards v. New Orleans Pelicans -3 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
The Pelicans are a horrible road team. But they have a winning spread record in New Orleans where they've won four in a row defeating the Trail Blazers, Nuggets, Grizzlies and Pistons.
Ryan Anderson is out indefinitely with a herniated disk, but center Jason Smith is back after missing seven of the last eight games with a shoulder injury. The Wizards are going to have trouble up front containing emerging superstar Anthony Davis. The Pelicans step way down in class after suffering losses to Indiana and Miami in their last two games. Washington's strength is its backcourt. But New Orleans' point guard Jrue Holiday is much better at home where he averages 17.4 points and has made better than 51 percent of his 3-point shots. |
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01-06-14 | Auburn v. Florida State -9 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
Yes, I'm aware that SEC teams have won the last seven national titles. But that streak ends here because Auburn, with its assortment of lucky wins, can't match Florida State's talent. If you're into trends than here's one - Florida State is 8-0-1 ATS in its last nine bowl games.
The one-dimensional Tigers can run, but they can't pass. They also can't stop Jameis Winston, the best quarterback in college football. It wasn't a fluke the Seminoles averaged 53 points per game. The fewest points they scored in a game was 37. Florida State has awesome talent. The Seminoles could have around 18 players taken in the NFL draft. The Seminoles have tremendous talent in their defensive front, which allowed just five rushing touchdowns. The Seminoles led the nation in scoring defense giving up only 10.7 points per game. Auburn's defense, by comparison, ranked 88th in yards allowed and 104th in pass defense. When Auburn can't run, it is in big trouble. LSU held Auburn to 4.1 yards per rush and won, 35-21. Heisman Trophy winning Winston attracts the publicity, but his great talent masked just how good the rest of his team is. Because of that and Auburn being an SEC school this line isn't as high as it should be. So there's actually value in backing Florida State. |
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01-05-14 | Boston Celtics +9.5 v. Oklahoma City Thunder | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
Oklahoma City isn't the same team without Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have lost their last two home games - falling to Portland and Brooklyn.
The Thunder should be primed to end their home losing streak, but have to deal with some fatigue playing for the third time in four days and second in two days after coming from 13 points behind in the fourth quarter to beat the Timberwolves in Minnesota. The Thunder are 0-5 ATS following a victory. The Celtics are playing tough defense holding their last foes - the Pelicans, Bulls and Hawks - to an average of 93.6 points. Boston usually can be counted on for a strong effort under first-year coach Brad Stevens. The Celtics have proven tough in defending against the 3-point shot ranking second in the league. |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 145 h 26 m | Show |
The 49ers are playing their best ball having won six in a row. They have covered their last seven road games and won't be intimidated at all playing in cold weather at Lambeau Field.
The 49ers were unstoppable when they beat the Packers at home by two touchdowns in last season's playoffs piling up 579 yards. The Packers couldn't stop Colin Kaepernick on the ground or through the air. The Packers vowed to get more physical after that game. Green Bay cut some of the gap, but still lost by a touchdown opening week at home to the 49ers. The Packers keyed on Kaepernick's running ability so he burned them through the air throwing for more than 400 yards. Green Bay has been merely surviving flying through the seat of its pants. Rodgers being back gives the Packers a puncher's chance, but the 49ers are far more healthier than Green Bay and have a far superior defense. Rodgers couldn't beat the 49ers at home when he was 100 percent and had tight end Jermichael Finley and the defense had star pass rusher Clay Matthews. Injuries have just about decimated Green Bay. Randall Cobb is back, but he's not 100 percent. Eddie Lacy is dealing with a sore ankle. Too many of Green Bay's inexperienced reserves are thrust into key roles. That's not going to cut it versus San Francisco. |
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01-05-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
The Bengals, particularly Andy Dalton, have much to prove after losing in the first round of the playoffs each of the last two seasons.
Everything lines up for the Bengals to prove themselves in a big way in this matchup. The Bengals are home against a mediocre West Coast team coming into 30-degree weather with a mix of snow and rain forecast and playing at an early start time. The Chargers are well-coached, but their talent level - especially on defense - doesn't come close to matching the Bengals. Cincinnati has been dominant at home winning and covering all eight of its games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals have beaten good teams at home, too, defeating the Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Jets, Colts and Ravens. The Bengals have won their home games by an average of 17.6 points, the last five home games were won by an average of 24 points. Cincinnati finished with the top defense in the AFC allowing 305.5 yards per game. San Diego ranks 23rd in yards given up. The Chargers are especially vulnerable through the air ranking 29th. Dalton has been brilliant - at home. He's thrown 17 touchdown passes in his last five home contests. A.J. Green and Marvin Jones combined for 21 touchdown receptions. They should dominate a weak San Diego secondary. The Bengals defeated the Chargers, 17-10, at San Diego this season despite Dalton not playing well. They won it by rushing for 166 yards and getting another strong defensive effort. The Bengals could have won by double-digits but took a knee at the three-yard line at the end following a long drive. |
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01-04-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 16 m | Show | |
Yes, the Saints' road troubles are well documented. But the Eagles didn't post a winning home mark and have covered only 23 percent of their last 27 home games.
The Saints have the superior and more experienced big-game quarterback, Drew Brees, than the Eagles plus a stronger defense. Those are two key components, especially when taking points. New Orleans has playoff experience and an elite coach, Sean Payton. Chip Kelly did a fine job with the Eagles, but has never coached a pro playoff game. My trust lies far more with Brees and Payton than with Kelly and Nick Foles. Foles has to go against a Saints defense that ranked fourth in fewest yards allowed. Brees, who knows cold weather from having played at Purdue and has a 65 percent completion rate in cold weather games, gets to operate against the Eagles' 29th-ranked defense and last ranked pass defense. Brees has a deeper wide receiving group than Foles does, too, plus the best tight end in football, Jimmy Graham. |
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01-03-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Atlanta Hawks +3 | Top | 101-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Atlanta is a much stronger team at home where it has gone 12-4 while averaging 103.3 points. The Hawks have covered 62 percent of their home contests this season.
Atlanta's star power is down with Josh Smith and Joe Johnson on other teams and Al Horford out for probably the season. But the Hawks are a decent team that is resourceful and knows how to spread the floor and frustrate a run-and-gun opponent such as Golden State. The Warriors are playing well, but this is a bad spot for them. They just upset Miami in overtime last night and now have to play again, their third road game in four days. All of their starters except one had to play big minutes in the victory against the Heat. Atlanta, on the other hand, comes in well rested and well prepared having last played on Tuesday. |
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01-01-14 | UNLV v. North Texas -6.5 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
North Texas has a far superior defense, a coaching staff that has more bowl experience and are practically playing at home as its campus is less than 40 miles from the Cotton Bowl, site of this bowl game.
North Texas is going to have a huge home field advantage as neither Dallas area based team - SMU and TCU - are in a bowl game. The Rebels are 16-32 ATS in their last 48 road contests and not expecting much fan support. UNLV last appeared in a bowl game back in 2000. Their coaching staff, players and administration have no experience with everything involved. Not only is the situation bad for the Rebels, but they don't match up well either. If it weren't for beating a flat San Diego State squad at home during the final regular season game, the Rebels would be 0-5 versus bowl opponents this season. All but one of these losses to bowl teams was by double-digits. North Texas, by contrast, defeated bowl teams Ball State, Rice and Middle Tennessee State all by seven or more points. The Mean Green are playing well winning and covering six of their last seven. They average more than 31 points per game and rank ninth in scoring defense at 18.1 points per game allowed. UNLV gives up 31.5 points per game and ranks 100th in yards allowed. The Rebels were outscored on the season. |
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01-01-14 | Nebraska +9 v. Georgia | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
The Bulldogs aren't too interested in this bowl while Nebraska has something to prove.
It's a revenge spot for the Cornhuskers, who lost 45-31 to Georiga last season in the Capital One Bowl. Aaron Murray burned Nebraska for five touchdowns and 427 yards. Murry, one of the elite quarterbacks in the nation, is out, though, after tearing the ACL in his left knee on Nov. 23. It's been a disappointing season for Georgia. The Bulldogs are just 2-7-1 ATS. Georgia will be down two defensive backs, too, with strong safety Josh Harvey-Clemons and backup cornerback Sheldon Dawson suspended. |
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12-31-13 | Duke +13 v. Texas A&M | Top | 48-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
I see Duke as the more motivated team. Texas A&M opened the season with national title hopes. Now the Aggies are playing here in the Chick-fil-A Bowl. That's quite a letdown, but it's what happens to a team that goes 0-4 versus ranked opponents and is off consecutive defeats to LSU and Missouri.
The Aggies are 2-6 ATS in their past eight games. Duke knocked off two Top 25 foes on its way to setting a school record for victories. The Blue Devils are on a 7-1 ATS run. They have covered eight of their last 11 non-league games. Duke quarterback Anthony Boone isn't Johnny Manizel but he knows how to win games. |
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12-30-13 | Texas v. Oregon -14 | Top | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
I see this as a kill spot for Oregon, which has the offense and motivation to bury a Texas squad in transition.
This isn't an elite Texas team. The Longhorns are 1-3 versus Top 25 foes and have allowed at least 30 points in half of their games and 40 or more three times. The Ducks have the offense to take advantage with one of the top quarterbacks in the country, Marcus Mariota. He completed 63.1 percent of his throws for 3,412 yards with a 30-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. There's no comparison between Mariota and Texas' mediocre quarterback Case McCoy. Sparked by Mariota, the Ducks ranked second in the FBS in total offense averaging 573 yards and were No. 3 in points per game at 46.8. McCoy completed 57.4 percent with an 11-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Ducks are going to go hard after McCoy, too, as this will be the final game after 24 years with the Ducks for popular defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti. I don't see a similar motivation for Texas and its departing coach Mack Brown. Word has it the Texas coaches are more interested in getting their resumes out than in coaching this game. |
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12-29-13 | St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks -10 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 129 h 23 m | Show |
The Rams very well could get shut out in this game. It's not a fluke Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense and No. 2 in fewest points allowed. Seattle has the quickest and most athletic defense in football. The Seahawks also have the hardest hitting secondary.
I don't see any way the Rams are going to stay competitive with the Seahawks, who are going to be fully focused after having their 14-game home win streak end this past Sunday against the Cardinals and with the NFC West Division and a first-round bye at stake. Seattle is 7-2 ATS in December and 7-2 ATS following an ATS loss. The Seahawks aren't going to forget either than St. Louis nearly upset them in Week 8. The Rams are heavily run-oriented, forced to be that way with starting quarterback Sam Bradford out and extremely limited backup Kellen Clemens behind center. Making things worse for St. Louis is its best offensive lineman, left tackle Jake Long, is out. The Rams also could be missing their lone big-play threat, Tavon Austin. The Rams have a fierce pass rush, but their secondary can be exploited. Russell Wilson is one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. St. Louis doesn't have the run defense, nor the ballhawks in the secondary that Arizona does. The Rams have failed to cover in five of their last seven road games. Seattle is the toughest place to play in the NFL. The Seahawks have covered 68 percent of their past 54 home games. |
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12-29-13 | Baltimore Ravens +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 17-34 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
There are no secrets between these two long standing division rivals. The defending Super Bowl champion Ravens desperately need this game to greatly enhance their playoff chances.
The Ravens are coming off a 41-7 home loss to New England. So it's really gut check time for the Ravens, who are 4-0 under John Harbaugh following a loss of 20 or more points. The Ravens are down from last season. No doubt about that. But they remain well-coached with prideful veterans and a defense that has permitted just four more touchdown throws than interceptions since Week 2. Despite the presence of the magnificent A.J. Green, the Bengals still are a short passing team afraid to fully trust Andy Dalton despite his strong home statistics. I know the Ravens will produce an effort. I'm not so sure about the Bengals, who already have won the AFC North Division. They have always lacked a killer instinct. |
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12-28-13 | New Orleans Pelicans +9 v. Houston Rockets | Top | 98-107 | Push | 0 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
The Pelicans have won two in a row. Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans are back from injuries and playing well. Davis is going to be highly motivated
facing Dwight Howard. The Rockets are caught in a difficult situational spot. This is their third game in four days. The Rockets have beaten the Spurs and Grizzlies in their last two games. They have a far bigger matchup than this one on tap at Oklahoma City on Sunday. Houston is 1-6 ATS following a victory and missing injured point guard Patrick Beverly. The absence of Beverly means more minutes for the highly overrated Jeremy Lin. |
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12-27-13 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Charlotte Bobcats +9 | Top | 89-85 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Classic sandwich spot for Oklahoma City. The Thunder are off an impressive 123-94 victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden and have far more important games on tap - hosting Houston on Sunday and Portland on Tuesday.
This is a rest spot for the Thunder and it couldn't happen against a better 'dog team than the Bobcats, who have covered 11 of the past 13 times when taking points. The Thunder are red-hot, but the Bobcats are playing well, too, winning four of their last five. Charlotte has perhaps the most underrated defense in the league ranking third in fewest points and defensive field goal percentage. |
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12-23-13 | Toronto Raptors v. San Antonio Spurs -11 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
The new-look Raptors don't know they're supposed to be a lottery team after dealing Rudy Gay. They've won five of seven after nipping Dallas in overtime on the road then posting a monster upset of Oklahoma City on Sunday dealing the Thunder its first home defeat of the season.
But the timing is all wrong in this matchup for Toronto. They draw a rested and healthy Spurs team itching to get back on the winning side after an embarrassing 13-point home loss to Oklahoma City this past Saturday. The Spurs aren't in the class of Oklahoma City, Indiana, Portland and Miami right now. But they still are darn good and at their best crushing inferior foes covering four the past five times when laying more than nine points. San Antonio is 9-1 versus Eastern Conference foes and has beaten Toronto six straight times. The Spurs rank second in field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Toronto is weak defending against 3-pointers and is a cold shooting team. The Raptors return home for the holidays after this matchup not playing again until Friday. I don't see them being as emotionally up for this matchup after two straight impressive road victories. It's going to take a strong effort for Toronto to hang close and that's not likely to happen. The Spurs should be up for this home matchup and they have the shooters to take advantage of Toronto's weaknesses. |
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12-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | 11-54 | Win | 100 | 43 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a terrible matchup for the Bears, who have one of the worst run defenses of all time giving up 152 yards per game on the ground.
The Eagles lead the NFL in rushing at 152 yards per game. LeSean McCoy is the leading rusher in the NFL with 1,343 yards. Prior to laying an egg against the Vikings last week, the Eagles had held their past nine opponents to 21 points or less. Chicago has surrendered an average of 31 points during its last four games. I trust Nick Foles more than Jay Cutler not to commit turnovers. Foles has a fantastic 23-to-2 touchdown-to-interception. Chicago has failed to cover in nine of its last 11 games versus NFC opponents. |
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12-22-13 | Denver Broncos -10 v. Houston Texans | 37-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show | |
Denver has had 10 days to stew about suffering its first home loss in 14 tries after falling to San Diego.
Peyton Manning is chomping at the bit to take his frustrations out on Houston, which plays far worse than its statistics indicate. The Texans are a rudderless, dispirited bunch who can't wait for the season to end. They have dropped 12 in a row. Their 3-11 ATS mark is the worst spread mark in the NFL. The Texans are down to their third-string tailback in a run-heavy offense and may be missing their two top tight ends, too. Back at quarterback by unpopular demand is washed-up Matt Schaub, who the few fans who come to the game will be pulling against. The Texans lack a passing game to not only keep up with Manning but to have any backdoor capability. |
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12-22-13 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 35 h 52 m | Show | |
The line is inflated because the Chiefs have been piling up points and Indy has been struggling usually playing to the level of the competition.
These teams, though, are very close. They very well could meet in the first-round of the playoffs. So a conservative, vanilla game plan from both teams might happen with neither wanting to tip their hand knowing they could be meeting again in just two weeks. This is a plus for the underdog. The Chiefs have built up an impressive 11-3 record by beating bad teams and backup quarterbacks. Their only win against an above .500 team was against Philadelphia in Week 3. Kansas City has been outgained by 336 yards on the season and is allowing an average of 29.5 points a game during the last four weeks. The Chiefs' pass rush is down with Justin Houston, who doesn't appear ready to rejoin the lineup this week. |
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12-21-13 | Dallas Mavericks +3 v. Phoenix Suns | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
The Suns did it again last night. They came from behind to upset Denver on the road. The Mavericks also played last night, but they blew a huge lead and lost to Toronto in overtime.
So a focused effort should be forthcoming from the Mavericks, who have won and covered in 11 of their last 13 games versus Phoenix. Dallas has covered in five of its last six visits to Phoenix. The Mavericks have proven excellent value on the road covering 73 percent of their last 37 away contests. They also have been a huge money-maker without rest going 12-3 ATS the past 15 times in that situation. I like Phoenix far more in an underdog role. The Suns have lost straight-up four of the past five times when playing in the second of back-to-back games. |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State -4 | Top | 48-45 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 40 m | Show |
This isn't just about backing a Pac-12 team against a Mountain West Conference opponent, although it should be noted Pac-12 squads were 10-0 (7-3 ATS) when playing Mountain West foes this season.
No, this bowl matchup has one of the biggest strength of schedule differences. The Cougars played a far more difficult schedule than Colorado State. Not only did Washington State have to take on Pac-12 teams, but also tangled with Auburn losing by just seven on the road. The Mountain West was top heavy this season and the Rams lost to some of the better teams, including Boise State, Utah State and San Jose State. Colorado State hasn't beaten a good team all season. Washington State covered all six of its road contests, five of which were against bowl-bound teams. Colorado State lost to Colorado, the second-worst team in the Pac-12, by 14 points at a neutral site. Connor Halliday finished fourth in the nation in passing for Washington State. Colorado State played three option teams yet still ranked ahead of only 14 teams in pass defense. This is Washington State's first bowl game since 2003 so the Cougars should be pumped. |
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12-20-13 | Nebraska-Omaha +16 v. Minnesota | Top | 79-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
This is a funny situational spot for Minnesota. The Gophers haven't played in 10 days and won't play for another week after this game. So some rust is expected. Motivation could lack, too.
Nebraska-Omaha shouldn't lack for motivation having four players on its team from Minnesota, which is three more than the Gophers have. The Mavericks have proven pesky in winning five in a row while covering in five of their last six non-conference games. The Mavericks upset Nevada six days ago. They lost to UNLV by 3, Iowa by 8 and Drake by 8. All of those games were on the road. The Mavericks can score points in bunches. They average 84.5 points a game, which is 22nd best in the country. |
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12-19-13 | San Antonio Spurs v. Golden State Warriors -3 | Top | 104-102 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
The Spurs just nipped the Warriors 76-74 at home last month. The Warriors were missing Stephen Curry in that game while the Spurs had Tony Parker.
Now that situation is reversed with the Spurs minus the injured Parker. The Warriors also have Andre Iguodala back in their lineup. The Spurs are playing their third road game in four nights and second in two nights after getting past Phoenix last night. San Antonio has lost 11 of the past 14 times in the last three years with zero rest as a road 'dog. This is a statement game for the Warriors, who now that they are healthy want to prove they can beat an elite team. This is their opportunity. |
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12-18-13 | Detroit Pistons +1 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 107-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Rookie coach Brad Stevens is dong a nice job with youthful Boston. But the Celtics aren't as good as Detroit and playing at home isn't enough to compensate for that. The Pistons, with their physical interior play, are a bad matchup for Boston.
The Pistons have proven themselves against elite competition. Just two nights ago, Detroit ended Indiana's 11-0 home star with a five-point victory outrebounding the physical Pacers, 55-40. This was just one day after the Pistons nearly upset Portland losing by two in overtime. Those two teams have the two best records in the NBA. They are a combined 42-8. Boston is a whole another planet away from being in the class of the Pacers and Trail Blazers. Already this month the Pistons have not only won at Indiana, but also at Miami, Chicago and Milwaukee. Detroit is the only team in the NBA to rank in the top 10 in rebounding margin, blocked shots and forced turnovers. The Pistons rate fourth in rebounding margin. Boston is 18th. The Celtics have proven vulnerable in the paint. The teams met in Detroit on Nov. 3 and the Pistons won 87-77 holding the Celtics to their lowest point total and forcing a Boston high in turnovers. The Celtics could not handle highly improved Andre Drummond, who had 10 dunks. |
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
This is the Steelers' Super Bowl. Pittsburgh will be going all out against its hated division rival.
The Bengals are a much different team on the road, averaging 19.3 points per game. That's 14 points less than what they average at home. Cincinnati has a losing road record. The Bengals only have one away win by more than a field goal. Pittsburgh has won and covered five of the last seven in the series. A key to Pittsburgh's success is its defensive coordinator, Dick LeBeau, being able to successfully control Andy Dalton, who is completing just 52.3 percent in five career games against Pittsburgh with a 5.76 YPA and a 5-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Ben Roethlisberger is having a big season for Pittsburgh and has been hot his last four games with a high QB rating and a 9-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. |
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12-15-13 | New England Patriots v. Miami Dolphins | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 53 m | Show | |
The Dolphins opened as a fashionable underdog and have drawn all the early money knocking the line into the pick range.
But this doesn't mean the Dolphins are the right side here - because they are not. The Dolphins are a very mediocre team. They lack star power at the skill positions and their maligned offensive line with all its bad karma has surrendered a league-high 48 sacks. New England has proven it can win without star tight end Rob Gronkowski going 5-1 this season without him. Tom Brady still has plenty of weapons without Gronkowski. New England averages 26.8 points per game. Miami has exceeded 26 points in a game only twice. The Patriots have owned Miami, too, winning the past seven meetings. The Patriots face the Ravens in Baltimore next week. So they need to win this matchup. |
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12-15-13 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
I'll take a full touchdown with Washington. Who are the Falcons to lay these kinds of points?
Atlanta has been the biggest disappointment in the NFC this season. The Falcons rank 30th in run defense and start five rookies on defense. The Redskins made the right choice in benching RGIII. Kirk Cousins has starter potential and can provide a needed a spark. With Alfred Morris the Redskins' No. 2 ranked rushing attack can play ball control and move the ball on Atlanta's weak rush unit. The Redskins have several excellent pass rushers. Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has been sacked 11 times during the past two games. |
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12-14-13 | Los Angeles Clippers -4 v. Washington Wizards | Top | 113-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
The Wizards are off a tough road overtime loss to Atlanta last night. They nearly pulled the victory out after being down 15 points in the fourth quarter. Now they are playing without rest. The Clippers were idle last night, but struggled in a loss to the Nets on Thursday.
This is the Clippers' final game of a seven-game road trip. They are 3-3 during the trip. Following the loss to the Nets, Chris Paul said it was crucial the Clippers finish with a winning road trip and that this matchup against the Wizards is crucial. I'm taking Paul at his word. I'm expecting a focused and strong effort from the Clippers. Los Angeles has covered seven of the past 10 times following a non-cover. The Clippers and Doc Rivers have faced a lot of distractions on this road trip, including playing his former team the Celtics and two of his key former players, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, when playing the Nets. The Clippers are far more talented than the Wizards and a focused effort should enable them to cover this spread. |
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12-13-13 | Houston Rockets +3.5 v. Golden State Warriors | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show | |
Golden State doesn't match up well to the Rockets. That's evident in the Rockets defeating the Warriors in 18 of the last 21 matchups while covering 15 times.
The latest matchup came this past Friday in Houston with the Rockets burying the Warriors, 105-83. Golden State lacks the perimeter defense to slow down James Harden, who scored 34 during the last meeting, nor the interior defenders to control Dwight Howard, who scored 22 points and pulled down 18 rebounds in that last game. Houston blocked nine shots in that victory and forced 22 turnovers. Houston lost to the Trail Blazers last night on the road. However, the Rockets have won four of five times this season when playing without rest and were idle this past Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. They also have Jeremy Lin back to bolster their backcourt. |
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12-13-13 | New York Knicks +4.5 v. Boston Celtics | Top | 86-90 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
It may be a stretch to assume the Knicks have much pride, but they sure can't forget about being totally humiliated at home this past Sunday in losing 114-73 to Boston. That was the most lopsided loss of the season.
Feeling less pressure away from the Big Apple, the Knicks have a winning spread record on the road compared to being 2-9 ATS at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks surrender eight fewer points per game when on the road. Despite their slow start, the Knicks are just 2 1/2 games behind the Celtics in the weakened Atlantic Division. So the intensity level should be very high. The Knicks have covered in four of their last five visits to Boston. They also are 7-0 ATS the past seven times they've played on Friday. |
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12-12-13 | Maryland -2.5 v. Boston College | 88-80 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
Maryland is off to a slow start, but the Terrapins catch Boston College at a good time in their ACC opener. The Eagles' confidence is down following back-to-back losses to Purdue and USC by a combined 37 points.
The Eagles have yet to get things together as the team still is in an adjustment period. Maryland's key is getting more consistent point guard production. That should start to come now with the elevation of talented freshman Roddy Peters to starting point guard. Peters leads the team in assists despite coming off the bench in all but two games. Maryland has covered seven of its last nine road games for 78 percent. |
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12-10-13 | Phoenix Suns +3 v. Los Angeles Lakers | 114-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
So much for the Suns tanking. Phoenix is 11-9 and owners of a two-game win streak. I like them to keep their win streak going against a banged-up Lakers team breaking in a rusty Kobe Bryant.
Phoenix should be well-rested and prepared having been idle since beating the Raptors, 106-97, five days ago. The Lakers just lost to the Raptors, 106-94, at home this past Sunday in Bryant's season-debut. Bryant missed seven of nine shots from the field and turned the ball over eight times. It's going to take more than one game for Bryant to get comfortable returning from a torn Achilles' tendon. It's not just Bryant. The Lakers' backcourt is near depleted with Steve Nash sidelined and Jordan Farmar out with a hamstring injury. Steve Blake is their only available true point guard. Pau Gasol's defense has slipped as he deals with an ankle injury. The Lakers have received decent bench play, but Phoenix is deep, too, with eight players averaging 9.7 points a game or more. The Suns hold a strong backcourt edge with Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic. The Lakers have had matchup problems with Dragic in the past. Phoenix has tightened its defense under first-year head coach Jeff Hornacek ranking first in defending against 3-pointers and rating 10th in defensive field-goal percentage. The Suns held Houston to 88 points in its second-to-last game. The Rockets lead the NBA in scoring at 107.5 points per game. The Suns have covered 82 percent of their past 11 road games going 9-2 ATS. Phoenix also is 5-1 ATS in its past six meetings versus the Lakers. |