Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-02-21 | Knicks v. Rockets UNDER 217.5 | 122-97 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
With nothing left to play for Im betting the Rockets will run here with wreck-less abandon but the Knicks will not allow this game to be wide open and will be out to control the pace. The Knicks own both the top ppg defense and the slowest pace in the league and Im betting their will to make this a grinding affair will outwill the Rockets need to rack up stats. With that said, Im betting on a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total. NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER L/9 in road games after scoring 105 points or more 5 straight games with a combined average of 195.5 ppg scored.NEW YORK is 9-0 UNDER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (HOUSTON) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points, a terrible team (25% or less ) playing a team with a winning record are 29-9 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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05-02-21 | Nets v. Bucks UNDER 243.5 | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 1 h 7 m | Show | |
Both sides can score, that is an obvious point. However, this tilt Im betting will be a hard fought physical play off affair as both sides look to send a pre play off message to each other. BROOKLYN is 16-5 UNDER L/21 in road games vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 39% or more of their attempts with a combined average of 207 ppg. MILWAUKEE is 17-5 UNDER in home games off a road win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.4 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 34-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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05-02-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
Cards starter MARTINEZ is 13-3 UNDER after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his last 2 outings in his career. (Team's Record) Meanwhile, Wil Crowe (RHP)0-0, 3.86 ERA, 5 SO has been effective in preventing runs. He allowed four hits and two walks, but only one run in his last start and Im betting will do his part here in helping the combined score of todays game remaining on the low side of the total. The Cards took out the Pirates yesterday by a 12-5 count and in the past this has signaled what has been a low scoring affair in the followup. ST LOUIS is 11-0 UNDER after scoring 12 runs or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Heat v. Cavs OVER 208 | 124-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total should be closer to 212 which gives us more than a 1 possession advantage on this total to the over. MIAMI is 10-0 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-5 OVER versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 223 ppg scored. Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a favorite.Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 PPG or less differential), after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight games are 24-3 OVER L/24 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (MIAMI) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games 36-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play OVER |
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05-01-21 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 232.5 | 113-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Golden State is no longer a team that can just beat up on opponents behind an explosive offense as they only rank 21st in offensive rating and as a result their defense has had to ramp itself up as is evident in ranking 9th in defensive rating. Meanwhile, they now go against a Rockets side that rank 27th in offensive rating. I know both sides like to run at a faster pace their efficiencies and deficiencies dictate uneven proficiency from a offensive standpoint giving us value with an under wager on this offered totals number. The Rockets are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a home dog coming off a home win with a combined average of 207.4 ppg. HOUSTON is 21-11 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 24-13 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 224.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Rangers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
The Islanders will look to clinch their third straight trip to the playoffs Saturday, when they host the New York Rangers in the finale of a home-and-home series in Uniondale, N.Y. As usual it will be Barry Trotz play off style defensive game plan that takes center stage which offers value for an under wager. NY RANGERS are 9-1 UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game over the last 2 seasons. NY RANGERS are 5-0 UNDER off a home loss by 2 goals or more this season. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (NY RANGERS) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the 2nd half of the season are 85-39 L/24 seasons for a 69% conversion rate. Play on UNDER |
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05-01-21 | Cubs v. Reds OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
Chicago's starting pitchers have a 9.55 ERA and have allowed 34 hits, including nine home runs, as the club has gone 1-4 to start a seven-game trip. Jake Arrieta allowed seven runs and three homers over 3 1/3 innings Friday and now Davies who owns a ugly 12.15 ERA in his L/4 starts looks to be cannon fodder vs a Reds team that has averaged 7.8 rpg at home this season. Meanwhile Reds starter Castillo (1-2, 6.29 ERA) has lasted more than five innings just once in five starts, and opponents are batting .311 in his three home starts. With a Reds bullpen that owns a nasty 6.49 ERA at home Im betting that even an inconsistent Cubs offence will have a positive output in this spot. This Im betting leads to a combined score that eclipses this total.CHICAGO CUBS are 12-2 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-0 in Reds last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 home games.Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Play OVER |
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04-30-21 | Giants v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
Logan Webb(RHP1-1, 4.03 ERA, 24 SO)enjoyed his best start of the season against the Marlins on Sunday, when he tossed seven scoreless innings and matched a career high with eight strikeouts. He has a 1.80 ERA in three career games against San Diego. Meanwhile, Padres ace, Yu Darvish(RHP2-1, 2.27 ERA, 37 SO)The Padres traded for Yu Darvish to be their ace. And he's looked the part. Darvish has allowed only one run in each of his past four starts, and he has lasted at least six innings in all four, giving up a total of just 11 hits in that span.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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04-30-21 | Spurs v. Celtics OVER 219.5 | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
The Celtics are increasing their pace and offensive aggressiveness of late and have gone over in 3 straight games, and Im betting they will press the action again and turn this into a scoring fest. The Spurs are 13-0-1 OVER L/14 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers. SAN ANTONIO is 27-15 OVER in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 41-28 OVER (+10.2 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 227.4 ppg scored. BOSTON is 21-9 OVER after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.7 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder UNDER 231 | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
The Pelicans have gone under in 3 straight games and have played good defence of late, and Im betting they remain on the path here tonight vs a Thunder side that is ranked 28th in ppg offence this season. Van Gundy is 22-9 UNDER in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog in all games he has coached with a combined average of 192.7 ppg scored. The Thunder are 0-11 UNDER L/11 as a dog coming off a win in which they had more turnovers than assists with a combined average of 199.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA CITY is 33-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.4 ppg scored. NBA team (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off a close road loss of 3 points or less are 38-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 1-2 | Win | 102 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
As a Padre,Brewers starter Lauer was 5-0 with a 2.11 ERA in seven starts against L.A. LAs starter Trevor Bauer Over his last three games, Bauer is 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 19 innings. Opponents hit .138 off Bauer in those three games. Both these starters will help keep this game on the low side of the total. MILWAUKEE is 30-12 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 3 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 10-1 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 3 seasons.
Play on UNDER |
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04-29-21 | Nets v. Pacers UNDER 240 | 130-113 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
Indiana after allowing +130 points last time out in a lopsided loss will try to get back to defensive basics here this evening vs the run and gun Nets which Im betting will be deflating to this combined score to to low side of the offered totals number. Note: Pacers Domantas Sabonis is downgraded to OUT Thursday vs Brooklyn ( Back ) and this Im betting effects positive flow for the Pacers and will directly impact offensive output, making playing a better brand of D of utmost importance. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-28-21 | Spurs v. Heat OVER 213 | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to 217. Great value here with an over wager if generalities play out. The Spurs are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with the average combined score clicking in at 237 ppg. MIAMI is 11-2 OVER in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-4 OVER in home games versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.6 ppg scored. MIAMI is 23-9 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 222.7 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 154-95 OVER L/24 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play over |
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04-28-21 | Hornets v. Celtics OVER 215 | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Charlotte lost 114-104 to Milwaukee last night, and susceptible to being trampled on by their hosts tonight, which will have them in chase mode which bodes well in a garbage time scenario for an over wager to cash . My projections estimate that the Celtics will put close to 117 points on the board with Charlotte projected to put 103 points on the scoreboard. Which gives us a full possession advantage on this total. Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a favorite. CHARLOTTE is 9-0 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. Borrego is 15-2 OVER in road games after playing 3 consecutive home games as the coach of CHARLOTTE with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-28-21 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 210 | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Orlando has gone over in 7 of their L/8 games and Im betting on a more uptempo game than the first two meetings in this series back in January. Advantage over. ORLANDO is 25-7 OVER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 228 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 9-1 OVER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 7-0 OVER after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more this season with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. CLEVELAND is 23-12 OVER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, with a losing record are 36-9 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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04-28-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | 10-2 | Loss | -118 | 1 h 15 m | Show | |
The Twins are 0-12 UNDER L/12 past the first game of a series as a favorite off a game as a favorite in which they allowed 5+ walks with none of the games eclipsing this total. Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 18-7-3 in Twins last 28 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 5-2-2 in Twins last 9 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 21-9-2 in Twins last 32 games following a loss.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 13-6-2 in Twins last 21 during game 3 of a series. Under is 10-4 in Indians last 14 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 47-22-3 in Indians last 72 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. MLB teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CLEVELAND) - with a cold starting pitcher- ERA 7.00 or worse over his last 3 starts, after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs are 58-22 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. |
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04-27-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-5 | Win | 104 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
KELLY the Dbacks starter is 13-3 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) The Padres are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a favorite after they had a comeback win last game. ARIZONA is 12-3 UNDER vs. poor fielding teams - averaging 0.75+ errors/game over the last 2 seasons. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SAN DIEGO) - with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start are 45-15 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Wolves v. Rockets UNDER 235 | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
This number stood out to me from an eye test, and then my projections verified my initial observation . Value to the under. HOUSTON is 7-0 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 48% or better this season. HOUSTON is 20-10 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average of 220.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 225 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (MINNESOTA) - off a home win against a division rival, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 26-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Phillies v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
Carlos Martinez ( RHP 0-4, 6.00 ERA, 13 SO) is prone to inconsistent starts and according to pitcher vs batting order power rankings matches up badly vs the Phillies. Meanwhile, Phillies starter EFLIN is 18-6 OVER in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record)The Cardinals are 9-0 OVER L/9 when Carlos Martinez starts at home when they lost in his last start.EFLIN is 11-1 OVER in road games after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) which was the case last time out with a combined average of 11.6 rpg. Play OVER |
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04-27-21 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
The Raptors may not be a championship quality team anymore but they still are well coached and have the ability to slow explosive sides the Nets down . After playing last night the Raptors are on tired legs so they wont be in any shape to run and gun here, and with the Nets off a hard fought run and gun win vs the Suns last time out, I expect they will be in a letdown situation , which will also contribute to a lower combined score than anticipated. TORONTO is 15-4 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 35-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics OVER 214.5 | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Boston is off a loss last time out and will have little mercy here vs the Thunder tonight. That will have the thunder operating and catchup zone all night which will help this combined score go over the total. The Celtics are 14-0-1 OVER L/15 coming off a road loss where they had at least 30% of their points on threes with a combined average of 236 ppg scored. BOSTON is 14-4 OVER in home games after allowing 120 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BOSTON is 13-4 OVER off a road loss this season. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after scoring 90 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games are 54-29 OVER L/5 seasons, for a 65% conversion rate. Play on the OVER |
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04-26-21 | Panthers v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
The Panthers' Chris Driedger, who made 16 saves on Saturday for his 13th win of 2020-21, has stopped 45 of 46 shots and posted a shutout in two starts against the Predators this season. Nashville's Juuse Saros has 17 wins this season, including one in three starts against Florida (2.66 goals-against average. Im betting on both these goalies to help keep this tilt on the low side of the number. Under is 3-1-1 in Panthers last 5 road games. Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings. NASHVILLE is 16-4 UNDER in home games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. NASHVILLE is 21-8 UNDER in home games against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or better of shots against over the last 3 seasons. FLORIDA is 7-1 UNDER in road games after a home game where both teams score 3 or more goals over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (FLORIDA) - extremely tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the second half of the season are 124-67 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-26-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
As starter Sean Manaea(LHP2-1, 3.04 ERA, 22 SO) has been dominant over his last three starts, going 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA, including a shutout of the Twins his last time out and Im betting that momentum carries on into this tilt, and will be a contributing factor in a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. MANAEA is 22-8 UNDER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing since 1997. (Team's Record) Under is 6-0 in Athletics last 6 on astroturf.Under is 7-1-2 in Athletics last 10 vs. American League East. Under is 9-3-1 in Rays last 13 vs. American League West. Play UNDER |
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04-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 34 m | Show | |
Royals Brad Keller(RHP1-2, 12.00 ERA, 9 SO) will look to turn around his season after making it through 1 2/3 innings in Tuesday's loss to the Rays. Keller wasn't hit hard, but ran into unlucky plays and walked three. He was tagged for five runs on three hits and his second loss of the season. Meanwhile, Spencer Turnbull despite of being off a good start is winless in six career starts against the Royals, and according to my projections does not matchup well against this opponent. OVER
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04-25-21 | Suns v. Nets UNDER 233 | 119-128 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
The Suns last time out, looked fatigued from the quick turnaround after playing Philadelphia, were also outr-ebounded 48-38 by the Celtics in 99-86 loss. Im betting that exhaustion will continue permeate today and that they will be more interested in slowing this game down vs the fast paced Nets , to remain competitive which Im betting directly effects the combined score. Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings in Brooklyn. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 41-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 93-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for 71% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-25-21 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 7 | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 4 h 29 m | Show | |
Comparing both star4ting pitchers and their bullpens vs the opposing offenses has me recommending we take an under stance here in this spot play. Under is 5-2-1 in Reds last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a win. Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in St. Louis. CINCINNATI is 23-8 UNDER after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 3 seasons. MLB teams where the total is 7 or less (CINCINNATI) - after scoring 2 runs or less against opponent after a combined score of 2 runs or less are 28-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-24-21 | Capitals v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
The Islanders and Capitals took part in a play off play off style affair last time out, and the Caps came out on top 1-0 in the shootout after over time decided nothing. Im betting on more of the same here today and for this tilts combined score to stay on the low side of the offered number. NY ISLANDERS are 20-7 UNDER in home games after scoring 1 goal or less in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. NHL Home teams against the total (NY ISLANDERS) - quick starting team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season, after losing their previous game in overtime are 30-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-24-21 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
Shane Bieber(RHP2-1, 2.45 ERA, 48 SO) has notched 11 or more strikeouts in each of his first four starts, fanning 48 over that stretch. The last time he went head-to-head with Cole was in Game 1 of the 2020 American League Wild Card Series, in which Bieber allowed seven runs in 4 2/3 innings of a loss.BIEBER is 1-1 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 10.12 and a WHIP of 1.874. Two quality hurlers here, but there is enough efficient offense for this number to be eclipsed. NY YANKEES are 15-4 OVER in road games against AL Central opponents over the last 3 seasons. NY YANKEES are 30-11 OVER in road games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) over the last 3 seasons. MLB teams where the total is 7 or less (NYY/ CLEVELAND) - below average AL hitting team (AVG .265 or less) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or less), with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 29-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-24-21 | Avalanche v. Blues OVER 6 | 3-5 | Win | 101 | 3 h 46 m | Show | |
#1 GOALTENDERS: COLORADO - DEVAN DUBNYK, ST LOUIS - JORDAN BINNINGTON COLORADO is 6-0 OVER after a 4 game unbeaten streak this season. ST LOUIS is 13-3 OVER in home games against top caliber teams - outscoring opponents by 0.65+ goals/game over the last 3 seasons. Play OVER |
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04-24-21 | Devils v. Penguins UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
#1 GOALTENDERS: NEW JERSEY - MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD, PITTSBURGH - TRISTAN JARRY NEW JERSEY is 17-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with the average combined score clicking in at 5.5 gpg. PITTSBURGH is 15-8 UNDER against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game this season. PITTSBURGH is 11-3 UNDER in home games off a win by 2 goals or more over a division rival over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams against the total (NEW JERSEY) - after allowing 4 goals or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 5 goals or more in 2 straight games are 33-9 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-23-21 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Sandy Alcantara(RHP0-1, 3.28 ERA, 28 SO)Last Saturday, Alcantara held the Giants scoreless through six innings before things unraveled in a four-run seventh. His stretch of 44 2/3 regular-season frames without allowing a homer ended when Brandon Belt took him deep. Im betting on bounce back here. Meanwhile, Alex Wood(LHP1-0, 0.00 ERA, 4 SO)After pitching five scoreless innings in his debut against the Marlins on Sunday, Wood will again take the mound against Miami -- this time in San Francisco. He allowed just three hits and zero runs in the last meeting.
The Marlins are 0-10 UNDER since Sep 13, 2018 when Sandy Alcantara starts in the regular season after he had a WHIP of less than 1.00 in his last start with a combined average of 5 rpg scored and no more than 7 in any of the 10 tilts. ALCANTARA is 9-0 UNDER in road games vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) SAN FRANCISCO is 11-2 UNDER in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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04-23-21 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 225.5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Boston has gone under in 10 of their L/15 and will be primed to slow things down vs the high flying run and gun Nets here this evening in revenge mode for a 121-109 loss back in March. This Im betting results in a lower combined score than the offered total. BROOKLYN is 12-2 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.2 ppg. BOSTON is 8-1 UNDER revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 214.5 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BROOKLYN) - after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 115-68 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (BOSTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 65-39 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-23-21 | Bruins v. Sabres UNDER 5.5 | 4-6 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
Buffalo is on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 nights and are in complete disarray especially from a offensive standpoint. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER (+7.1 Units) in home games after scoring 1 goal or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.Under is 5-0-1 in Sabres last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Meanwhile, the Bruins continue to function at a high level as is evident by winning 6 straight games thanks to top strong goaltending and defense which has seen them allow just 6 goals during their current run. With that said, everything points to this being a low scoring affair. BUFFALO is 11-3 UNDER in home games against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 51. gog scored. BOSTON is 14-5 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record this season with 4.6 gpg scored in those 3 games. BOSTON is 10-3 UNDER against poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game this season with a combined average 4.6 gpg scored. Play Under - Road teams against the total (BOSTON) - after a 3 game unbeaten streak, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a terrible team (30% or less).are 37-15 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-23-21 | Brewers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | 2-15 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
Cubs Hendricks spun six shutout innings vs. Milwaukee on April 7 and matches up well vs this Brewers batting order. Meanwhile, Anderson the Brewers starter has only has 1 bad inning in the 17 innings he has pitched in this season, and once again looks like a viable pitching opponent. MILWAUKEE is 21-7 UNDER in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO CUBS are 23-7 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO CUBS are 15-3 UNDER in home games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 3 seasons.CHICAGO CUBS are 14-3 UNDER at home with a money line of -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Ryan Weathers(LHP)1-0, 0.93 ERA, 10 SO again will start the first game of a series vs. the rival Dodgers. On Friday, he pitched 3 2/3 scoreless innings in his first big league start. He allowed one hit and walked two. He has the tools to go farther here today and control of the Dodgers potent offence. Meanwhile, Dodgers starter Walker Buehler(RHP1-0, 2.00 ERA, 12 SO) has pitched exactly six innings in each of his three starts, allowing two runs or fewer in all three. Against the Padres on Friday, Buehler allowed two runs and struck out four. More of the same pitching action from the top tier veteran is on tape again. Look for both strong bullpens to also help these starters and for the combined score to stay on the low side of the number. BUEHLER is 15-3 UNDER in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) BUEHLER is 24-7 UNDER as a home favorite of -150 or more since 1997. (Team's Record) SAN DIEGO is 10-0 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive home games this season.SAN DIEGO is 8-0 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive home games this season. LA DODGERS are 9-1 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season. Play UNDER |
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04-22-21 | Pistons v. Spurs OVER 216 | 91-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
This total is based on a projection prognosis which is based on how both teams matchup against each other . This one is simple, as my number suggests this total should be closer to 219 giving us a full possession of value. The Pistons are 16-0 OVER L/16 as a 8+ point dog after allowed at least 45 points in the paint and being outscored in the paint last game with a combined average of 235 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-22-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
Red Sox Nick Pivetta(RHP2-0, 3.68 ERA, 14 SO) has looked fairly decent from a records perspective , but truth is his control is has been lousy and ready to implode after recording 11 walks o far. Meanwhile, the inconsistent Mariners starter Justin Dunn (RHP1-0, 3.72 ERA, 9 SO) was much more in the strike zone in his second start of the season after throwing a career-high eight walks in his debut and is not a viable option for the Yankees vs the Mariners batting order. The Red Sox are 10-0 OVER L/10 at home after they allowed 5+ walks last game. SEATTLE is 15-5 OVER in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11 rpg scored. BOSTON is 25-13 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average 10.9 rpg scored. Play OVER |
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04-21-21 | Heat v. Spurs UNDER 215.5 | 107-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
Miami successes and failures are based on how ell they play defence. They rank 3rd in ppg allowed , and just. 26th in ppg offensive output and the 28th ranked pace. Meanwhile, San Antonio ranks 20th in ppg offence, and 12 in ppg defence behind a 15 ranked pace. With that said, the numbers suggest we will get a game that sees a combined score in the lower range of 215 number being offered. .Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games as a road underdog.Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. MIAMI is 15-7 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 204.7 ppg scored. The Heat are 0-10 UNDER L/10 going under by more than 20 ppg on average on the road coming off a win. Under is 11-4 in Spurs last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play UNDER |
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04-21-21 | Astros v. Rockies UNDER 10 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Austin Gomber(LHP0-2, 3.52 ERA, 14 SO) held the Dodgers to three runs in six innings in his last start, and was in position for a win. He’s also taken major steps forward with his best pitch, the curveball and fits into a under rated category for me. Meanwhile, Jose Urquidy(RHP0-1, 4.50 ERA, 19 SO) is looking for his first win of the season. He is the only Astros starting pitcher to reach 100 pitches in a game so far this year, throwing 101 pitches April 10 against Oakland. He also fits into the under rated category which makes it an easy decision to take the under here on a value total. COLORADO is 7-0 UNDER vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse this season. COLORADO is 10-2 UNDER against right-handed starters this season. Under is 9-2-2 in Astros last 13 during game 2 of a series. Under is 23-10-3 in Astros last 36 interleague road games. Play UNDER |
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04-20-21 | Maple Leafs v. Canucks UNDER 6 | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
#1 GOALTENDERS: TORONTO - JACK CAMPBELL, VANCOUVER - THATCHER DEMKO These teams have had a recent string of playing low scoring affairs , going under in 9 of their L/10 meetings and 5 straight here in Vancouver. A couple of days ago the Canucks took a 3-2 win vs the Buds, and Im betting on more hard core defense to be on tonights agenda. Under is 3-0-1 in Maple Leafs last 4 overall. TORONTO is 9-2 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. VANCOUVER is 10-4 UNDER in home games against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game this season.Under is 4-0 in Canucks last 4 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Play UNDER |
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04-20-21 | Blue Jackets v. Panthers UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
#1 GOALTENDERS: COLUMBUS - JOONAS KORPISALO, FLORIDA - SPENCER KNIGHT Both these teams are on tired legs after playing last night and in no way be ready to run and gun here this evening. COLUMBUS is 15-4 UNDER in road games against poor power play killing teams - opp score on 17.5% worse of chances this season. COLUMBUS is 7-0 UNDER when playing on back-to-back days this season. COLUMBUS is 10-1 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days this season.
NHL Road teams where the total is 5.5 (COLUMBUS) - cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-20-21 | Dodgers v. Mariners OVER 8 | 1-0 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 57 m | Show | |
Urías is in bad form after allowing five runs (four earned) over six innings Thursday vs. Colorado. In his past two starts, Urías has allowed eight runs (seven earned) over 11 2/3 innings. More of the same negative action here will help the combined score eclipse this total. URIAS is 12-2 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) URIAS is 10-0 OVER vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) URIAS is 11-0 OVER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Play over |
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04-19-21 | Dodgers v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Joe Musgrove (RHP2-1, 0.47 ERA, 24 SO) It's Musgrove's first start in San Diego since he became a local hero by authoring the first no-no in franchise history. It's already been an eventful home-stand. Musgrove was honored for his no-no on Friday, then he played left field in extra innings.Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP)0-0, 2.12 ERA, 19 SO finds the right tempo in his delivery, he pitches like an ace. He fought that throughout his last start against the Cubs, but he still delivered six innings of one-run ball, with one walk and six strikeouts.MILWAUKEE is 13-2 UNDER in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)WOODRUFF is 11-1 UNDER in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive home games this season. Play on the UNDER |
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04-19-21 | Brewers v. Padres UNDER 7 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
Joe Musgrove (RHP2-1, 0.47 ERA, 24 SO) It's Musgrove's first start in San Diego since he became a local hero by authoring the first no-no in franchise history. It's already been an eventful home-stand. Musgrove was honored for his no-no on Friday, then he played left field in extra innings.Meanwhile, Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff(RHP)0-0, 2.12 ERA, 19 SO finds the right tempo in his delivery, he pitches like an ace. He fought that throughout his last start against the Cubs, but he still delivered six innings of one-run ball, with one walk and six strikeouts.MILWAUKEE is 13-2 UNDER in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.WOODRUFF is 8-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)WOODRUFF is 11-1 UNDER in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)SAN DIEGO is 7-0 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive home games this season. Play on the UNDER |
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04-19-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 234.5 | 128-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
The Suns were completely asleep at the wheel in their last trip to the hardwood losing a 111-85 decision at home to the Spurs. Could they have been looking ahead to this top tier tilt? Whatever the situation was, Im expecting a rebound here, and special attention played to playing top tier defensive effort. PHOENIX is 17-3 UNDER off a double digit loss as a home favorite of 6 or more. The Bucks HC Budenholzer is 111-78 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season in all games he has coached with the combined average of 208.5 ppg scored. Its obvious both teams can light it up, but top tier D, will be on display tonight in this EAST vs WEST slugfest. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-19-21 | Thunder v. Wizards UNDER 232 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
The Wizards are 0-12-2 UNDER L/14 at home with less than two days rest coming off a home win in which they never trailed. WASHINGTON is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots this season with a combined average of 218 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 10-2 UNDER versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season. OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-1 UNDER in road games in non-conference games this season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after 8 or more consecutive losses, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 37-11 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-19-21 | Cavs v. Pistons OVER 212.5 | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
These teams overall numbers might point to a lower scoring type of affair, but from a matchup perspective my projections estimate this total to be closer to 216 giving us a full possesion plus of value for an over wager. Bickerstaff is 12-2 OVER in road games after 2 straight losses by 10 points or more in all games he has coached with a combined average of 219 ppg scored. Pistons and Cavaliers have gone over in their L/9 meetings with a combined average of (227.8 ppg going on the board. ) NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 50% or higher against opponent after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 114-70 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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04-18-21 | Pacers v. Hawks UNDER 234.5 | 117-129 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 59 m | Show | |
Atlanta runs a fairly methodical offense despite of their reputation, ranking 24th in the NBA in pace and only rank 14th in offence. Meanwhile, Indiana loves to run and gun with wreck-less abandon, but have still seen the Under get notched in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Which tells me they play differently against these type of teams, and or are forced into slowing down vs sides that know taking the Pacers flow away will be advantageous. Im betting this stronger than expected Hawks side will find a way to slow this game down to a pace that is manageable. This Im betting will result in a lower scoring game than the linesmakers are estimating. INDIANA is 22-10 UNDER in road games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 213.7 ppg scored. NBAHome teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (ATLANTA) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 41-14 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-18-21 | Cardinals v. Phillies UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
Phillies starter NOLA is 4-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 2.35 and a WHIP of 0.887. NOLA is 29-14 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse in his career. (Team's Record)NOLA is 24-10 UNDER as a favorite of -150 or more in his career. (Team's Record) Under is 11-5-1 in Cardinals last 17 games as an underdog. Play UNDER |
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04-18-21 | Capitals v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 3-6 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 45 m | Show | |
BOSTON is 24-11 UNDER in home games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Home teams where the total is 5.5 (BOSTON) - after a blowout win by 3 goals or more against opponent after playing a game where 9 or more total goals were scored are 52-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-17-21 | Spurs v. Suns OVER 227 | 111-85 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
This totals projection to the over is based on head to head matchup stats as compared to current defensive postures and the systems and form being implemented by both sides. Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 road games. Over is 6-0 in Suns last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 6-1 in Suns last 7 games as a home favorite. SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 OVER in road games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.3 ppg going on the board. The Suns are 11-0 OVER L/11 going over by more than 15 ppg with rest off a win in which they shot over 50% from the field with the average combined score clicking in at 242 ppg. PHOENIX is 11-3 OVER in a home game where the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - excellent offensive team (102 or more PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after 2 straight losses by 6 points or less are 32-10 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-17-21 | Grizzlies v. Bucks UNDER 237 | 128-115 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
When these teams played back on March 4th they combined to put 223 points on the board in a Bucks 112 -111 win vs the Grizzlies. My projections in rematch estimate a combined score that is in the 233 range which gives us a more than 1 possession advantage. After playing last night the Grizzlies will not have the legs to run with the explosive Bucks, so instead I look for a concerted effort in transition that will slow this game down enough for a more muted score than many might expect. It must be noted that the Bucks rank 7th in defensive rating and the Grizzlies 8th.: Defensive Rating (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); for players and teams it is points allowed per 100 possessions) Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog.Under is 19-7 in Grizzlies last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-4 in Grizzlies last 13 games as an underdog. MEMPHIS is 9-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) this season with a combined average fo 217 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 8-1 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 209.1 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 23-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 230 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored in those 34 tilts. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 46-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 215 points or more are 60-21 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-17-21 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 228.5 | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
These two teams according to my projections will take part in a fairly physical affair that will see the combined score stay under this total. Golden State ranks 9th in defensive efficiency in the NBA while Boston is 10th in ppg allowed and 21st in pace. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days this season with a combined average of 216.1 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 21-9 UNDER as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 20-10 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season. GOLDEN STATE is 21-11 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season. Under is 10-1 in Warriors last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 12-4 in Warriors last 16 road games. Warriors: 0-10 UNDER L/10 vs the Celtics . Celtics: 1-8 UNDER at home in 1/1 rest. NBA Road teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more are 33-16 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 68% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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04-17-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Erick Fedde(RHP0-1, 8.53 ERA, 6 SO) continues to step up in the starting rotation while Jon Lester ramps up. This will be his third start of the season. On Monday, Fedde held the Cardinals to one run on two hits and two walks over 4 2/3 innings. Meanwhile,Luke Weaver(RHP ,1-0, 2.13 ERA, 11 SO) had one of his finest outings since early in the 2019 season last time out against the Reds. He carried a perfect game into the sixth and a no-hitter into the seventh before settling for seven one-hit shutout innings and enters this game in top form.ARIZONA is 9-1 UNDER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons.LOVULLO is 33-18 UNDER in road games vs. NL teams allowing 5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of ARIZONA.Under is 8-2-1 in Diamondbacks last 11 during game 3 of a series.Under is 9-4 in Nationals last 13 vs. National League West. Play UNDER |
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04-17-21 | Capitals v. Flyers UNDER 6.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -117 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
The Capitals have allowed 1 goal or less in 4 of their L/7 games, while the Flyers are a hot or miss type side when it comes to puck stopping. The Caps have looked explosive offensively of late, but that will make the Flyers even more aware of their defensive play especially after being humiliated 6-1 the last time these teams met. I now have this game pegged to remain on the low side of the total because of the countervailing view of how this afternoon game plays out. PHILADELPHIA is 9-2 UNDER in home games against poor defensive teams - allowing 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NHL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 4 goals or more, off a road win by 1 goal are 22-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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04-16-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
#1 GOALTENDERS: VEGAS - ROBIN LEHNER, ANAHEIM - JOHN GIBSON Anaheim and Vegas in their L/2 meetings this season have seen a total of 6 goals scored and Im betting another close low scoring game in this spot play. ANAHEIM is 6-0 UNDER in home games revenging a close loss vs opponent of 1 goal or less this season. ANAHEIM is 6-0 UNDER in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) this season with a combined average of 4.3 gpg scored. ANAHEIM is 8-1 UNDER in home games against good defensive teams - allowing 2.55 or less goals/game over the last 3 season NHL team against the total (ANAHEIM) - poor offensive team - scoring 2.55 or less goals/game on the season - 2nd half of the season, after a blowout win by 3 goals or more.are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Bulls OVER 220 | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that the Grizzlies will score at least 115 +points here tonight while the Bulls will put up 109+ points , which gives us a full possession value on this total to the over. MEMPHIS is 24-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 25-6 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 237.7 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 11-2 OVER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game this season with a combined average of 230.6 ppg scored.MEMPHIS is 11-1 OVER in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season with a combined average of 237.6 ppg scored.The Grizzlies are 11-0 OVER L/11 eclipsing the number by more than 16+ ppg off a game as a dog in which they had at least 30% of their points on three-pointers.Jenkins is 17-4 OVER in road games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games as the coach of MEMPHIS with a combined average of 235.6 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-16-21 | Flames v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
#1 GOALTENDERS: CALGARY - JACOB MARKSTROM, MONTREAL - JAKE ALLEN Play OVER |
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04-14-21 | Warriors v. Thunder UNDER 224.5 | 147-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State has averaged less than 100 points per game in their L/6 overall, and Im betting their offensive conversion rate will continue vs the Warriors tonight in a game I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number, based on the Thunders horrendous 43% FG conversion rate in their L/5 tilts. Five of the L/6 meetings in this series have remained on the low side of the total. GOLDEN STATE is 9-0 UNDER after covering 3 of their last 4 against the spread this season with a combined average of 210.4 ppg scored. The Warriors are 0-12 UNDER L/12 on the road after Stephen Curry had the highest plus/minus on the team last game going under by more than 16.5 ppg. Play UNDER |
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04-13-21 | Thunder v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate a total that should be closer to 218. Thus giving us value with an under wager. We have a full possession plus to work with this spot play. OKLAHOMA CITY is 20-8 UNDER in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA CITY is 32-20 UNDER (+10.0 Units) when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. NBA team (UTAH) - a very good team (+7 PPG or more differential) against a struggling team ( 7 PPG or less differential), after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games are 26-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (UTAH) - a very good team (+7 or more PPG diff.) against a struggling team (- 7 or less PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 23-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-13-21 | Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 232 | 126-115 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
The Clippers rank 28th in pace in the NBA and own the 6th best ppg defense and 2nd ranked defensive rating and have allowed an average of 107 ppg on the road. Im betting the Clippers do what they do best and control the pace of this tilt and defensively own a side that is going to be in a regression mode tonight after taking part in a 132-125 uptempo affair last time out. This Im betting directly effects the the total combined score to the under here. INDIANA is 18-4 UNDER after scoring 130 points or more with an average of 201.4 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 18-8 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of 218.9 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - good 3PT shooting team ( 36.5% or more ) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or better of their shots are 28-4 UNDER L/28 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after allowing 115 points or more are 32-6 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (INDIANA) - in non-conference games, off a road win are 43-12 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-12-21 | Wizards v. Jazz OVER 234.5 | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
The Jazz average just under 120 ppg at home this season, and against a lower tier defensive side like the Wizards Im betting on them putting 5 to 10 more points on that average tonight, while the Wizards Im betting will be good for 110+ points in a chasing environment. When these teams played back on March 18th the Wizards took a 131-122 affair, and more fireworks should be considered highly likely again in the rematch as Utah will have little empathy in melt up type of revenge match.WASHINGTON is 15-3 OVER as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 247.3 ppg scored.WASHINGTON is 8-0 OVER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game this season with a combined average of 250.7 ppg going on the board.WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70%) - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 258.3 ppg scored. NBA team (UTAH) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 42-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-11-21 | Spurs v. Mavs OVER 220 | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
The Spurs D has been trashed on a very consistent basis of late, allowing 134, 132, 134, 139, 125, 121 points in a 10 game span, and against this kind of opponent my estimates project Dallas to score in excess of 115+ points while the Spurs project to score 109+ points. Note: DALLAS is 20-4 OVER where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 238 ppg going on the board. The Spurs are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 as a dog with less than two days rest after they had fewer than 10 turnovers last game with a combined average of 237.1 ppg scored. Popovich is 34-16 OVER in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 as the coach of SAN ANTONIO with a combined average of 231.1 ppg going on the board . Play OVER |
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04-11-21 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 50 m | Show | |
Max Scherzer (RHP)0-0, 6.00 ERA, 9 SO will make his second start of the season after pitching on Opening Day, when he allowed four home runs and struck out nine against the Braves. Meanwhile, Clayton Kershaw despite of a strong effort last time out has been very inconsistent since spring training and could easily get lit up here a Nationals side that my projections estimate matches up well against him. Over is 10-0-1 in Nationals last 11 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Over is 6-1 in Nationals last 7 games as an underdog. WASHINGTON is 16-3 OVER against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. WASHINGTON is 12-1 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.WASHINGTON is 20-7 OVER vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons. Play OVER |
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04-11-21 | Celtics v. Nuggets UNDER 223.5 | 105-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Afternoon basketball can start a little slower then night time hoops, and today Im betting on an affair that is grinding in nature and that combines to stay under the offered totals number. Denver runs the 29th ranked pace in the NBA along with the 9th best ppg defence. Meanwhile, Boston ranks 21st in pace in own the 10th best ppg defence. Under is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 overall. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play UNDER |
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04-11-21 | Hawks v. Hornets UNDER 219.5 | 105-101 | Win | 102 | 1 h 19 m | Show | |
Charlotte plays a style conducive to slowing down teams like Atlanta. This Im betting will see this afternoon tilt garner alot less scoring than some may be anticipated. Play UNDER |
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04-10-21 | 76ers v. Thunder OVER 216.5 | 117-93 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
Oklahoma City's D, has been shredded on a consistent basis of late, allowing an average of 129.4 ppg in their L/5 trips to the hardwood. With that said, Im expecting this trend to continue which projects into what Im betting will be a combined score that eclipses this offered totals number. Over is 4-0 in Thunder last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 games as a home underdog.Over is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 home games. Over is 26-10-1 in 76ers last 37 games playing on 0 days rest. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 33-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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04-10-21 | Blackhawks v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
#1 GOALTENDERS: CHICAGO - KEVIN LANKINEN, COLUMBUS - JOONAS KORPISALO CHICAGO is 8-0 UNDER after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread this season. CHICAGO is 5-0 UNDER in road games against terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season. Under is 5-0 in Blackhawks last 5 games as a road favorite. COLUMBUS is 10-1 UNDER against lower tier defensive teams - allowing 3+ goals/game this season with a combined average of 4 gpg. Road teams where the total is 5.5 (CHICAGO) - after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game against opponent after scoring 4 goals or more in 2 straight games are 145-84 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 63% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-10-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 9-5 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
ADRIAN HOUSER (R) vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (R) Both these teams have gone under the total in their L/4 games, and after comparing the starting pitchers and bullpen my projections give us value on a under wager. MILWAUKEE is 18-4 UNDER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.MILWAUKEE is 12-2 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. MILWAUKEE is 18-6 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 62% or better ) over the last 3 seasons. Under is 8-0 in Brewers last 8 during game 2 of a series. Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 home games. Under is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis. Play on the UNDER |
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04-09-21 | Reds v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -121 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
Reds right hander Tyler Mahle (1-0, 3.60 ERA), 9 SOIn a 9-6 win over the Cardinals on Saturday, Mahle touched 98 mph with his four-seam fastball, and he was getting strikes, as he fanned nine batters over five-plus innings. In his current form he wont be easily hit. Meanwhile, righty Taylor Widener (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 5 SO was originally scheduled to pitch Saturday but was moved up a day when Caleb Smith was removed from the rotation. He is still pitching on regular rest because of last Monday's off-day. He provides a good arm here, and with the backup of a vialbe bullpene should limit the Reds flaming hot bats. Under is 10-1 in Reds last 11 vs. National League West. Under is 35-15-1 in Reds last 51 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. MAHLE is 16-6 UNDER vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) CINCINNATI is 22-8 UNDER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.BELL is 25-12 UNDER in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse as the manager of CINCINNATI.Under is 5-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 overall. Play UNDER |
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04-09-21 | Spurs v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | 119-121 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Denver owns the 9th ranked ppg D in the NBA behind the 29th ranked pace, while, San Antonio ranks 15th in pce in 22nd in offense ppg. Considering both sides condensed exhausting schedule, and their other pertinent numbers we have a projected tilt that very much looks like a combined score that fails to eclipse this number is a likely scenario. Malone is 10-1 UNDER in home games versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season as the coach of DENVER with a combined average of 198.6 ppg. SAN ANTONIO is 10-1 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 214.6 ppg going on the board. NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a road loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days are 30-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (DENVER) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
The Phoenix suns played and emotional game that ended in a OT win vs Utah last night, and now on tired legs and in an emotional letdown state are susceptible to a very slow start and a down offensive performance against a defense that has alot of stopping power as is evident by ranking 6th in ppg allowed behind the 27th ranked pace. Advantage under. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 71-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 40-13 L/7 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-08-21 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 230 | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
Utah enters this game off an exhausting game last night vs the Suns, losing in OT. Now in an emotional letdown spot I expect the Jazz to not be as aggressive offensive as usual which Im betting results in a game that goes under the set total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 88% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off 2 or more consecutive road losses, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are they 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-08-21 | Mariners v. Twins UNDER 8 | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
Berríos didn't get a third consecutive Opening Day nod, but he'll start Minnesota's home opener after he held the Brewers hitless over six innings and matched a career-high with 12 strikeouts on April 3 Im betting he shuts down the Mariners while Marco Gonzalez and company do just enough to limit the Mariners in a game I have pegged to go under the total. MINNESOTA is 25-7 UNDER vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or worse over the last 2 seasons. MINNESOTA is 13-1 UNDER in home games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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04-06-21 | Bucks v. Warriors UNDER 237.5 | 121-122 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
This is the Bucks 5th straight road game and now on tired legs I expect a slower pace from them here and a more defensive minded stance, as they allowed 128 points last time out in a back and forth 129-128 win. Note: MILWAUKEE is 20-9 UNDER after allowing 120 points or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219. 8 ppg scored. The Warriors are 0-10-2 UNDER off a road loss in which Stephen Curry had a positive plus/minus. GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 UNDER versus below average foul drawing teams - attempting 21 or less free throws/game this season with a combined average of 219.8 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 23-10 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 222 ppg going on the scoreboard. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 34-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NB ARoad teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after scoring 110 points or more are 29-5 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Dodgers starter Kershaw has made four previous starts against the A's, going 0-0 despite a 1.35 ERA. Kershaw is 21-5 in interleague play, with a 1.71 ERA in three starts in Oakland and today Im betting he holds down the struggling bats of the As after struggling on opening day. Meanwhile, right hander Chris Bassitt drew the first Opening Day assignment of his career last week against Houston. Though he took the loss, the righty kept the A's in the ballgame, allowing three runs on four hits in 5 1/3 innings and will be primed to help his team get its first win of the season.
Play UNDER |
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04-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat OVER 216 | 124-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Over is 5-1-1 in Grizzlies last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record and tonight Im betting they push the red hot Heat into a faster paced more offensive game then they would like to partake in. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games as a home favorite. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER in home games versus struggling defensive teams - allowing 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.4 ppg scored. MIAMI is 13-3 OVER in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229.2 ppg. MEMPHIS is 9-1 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 229 ppg scored. MEMPHIS is 11-2 OVER in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 233 ppg scored. Only one of Grizzlies last 10 games have seen less than 216 combined points scored. Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Miami. Play OVER |
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04-06-21 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 223 | 106-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
The Sixers ranks 7th in ppg allowed while the Celtics rank 10th behind the 21st ranked pace. Both sides are considered eastern conference contenders and rivals and tonight Im betting on a physical affair, as both jockey for play off seeding possibilities and domination from a head to head standpoint. Boston has gone under in 5 straight. Philadelphia have stayed under in 8 of their L/11 overall. BOSTON is 30-11 UNDER L/41 after a huge blowout win by 30 or more with the average combined score of 193 ppg scored. (Beat Charlotte 116-86 last time out) Regression is expected. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - revenging a loss vs opponent, off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more are 51-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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04-05-21 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 48 m | Show | |
Astros starter Luis Garcia hadn’t pitched above Class A ball before appearing in five games for the Astros in 2020, posting a 2.92 ERA. That included five scoreless innings in his only big league regular-season start Sept. 9. Meanwhile, Halos starter Jose Quintana is set to make his Angels debut after a strong Spring Training that saw him post a 3.32 ERA in six starts. He was limited to just 10 innings due to injury in 2020 but is fully healthy now. Both hurlers and bullpends according to my projections give us an edge on the under.QUINTANA is 71-44 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997. (Team's Record)BAKER is 141-100 UNDER with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (AL) in all games he has managed since 1997.Under is 6-1 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 8-3-2 in Angels last 13 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play UNDER |
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04-05-21 | Suns v. Rockets OVER 222 | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
The Suns, who will visit the Houston Rockets on Monday, closed Sunday ranked seventh in offensive rating (115.3) and tonight Im betting on more offensive explosiveness, that will result in a wide open affair that eclipses this number. The Rockets are 21-0-1 OVER with no rest after a loss in which they led after the third quarter which was the case last time out. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a bad team (25% to 40%) are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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04-05-21 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9 | 15-6 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Jose Urena -The Tigers starter today signed Ureña to provide veteran stability to the rotation, but also because they saw upside in his game. He had an up-and-down Spring Training, including more walks (nine) than hits (seven) over 14 innings, but he showed an electric arsenal. Meanwhile, Matt Shoemaker the Twins starter has only made 18 starts in the last three seasons due to a series of setbacks, but he’s hopeful that his “freak injuries” are behind him, as the 2014 AL Rookie of the Year Award runner-up aims to rebuild his stock with the Twin. He is a quality stable hurler when healthy. Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games as an underdog. Under is 14-6-1 in Twins last 21 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 14-6-2 in Twins last 22 road games. MINNESOTA is 27-11 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons.MINNESOTA is 27-10 UNDER against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.MINNESOTA is 30-16 UNDER against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons. Play UNDER |
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04-04-21 | Warriors v. Hawks UNDER 225.5 | 111-117 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
The Atlanta Hawks return home and are now on tired legs after their season-long eight-game road trip and now this Sunday play to host the Golden State Warriors.Both sides are banged up as the condensed schedule takes its toll on teams. If Warriors Seth curry plays he will be less than 100% with a sore tailbone as will Atlantas Trae Young who has knee issues. With that said, Im betting on a muted type tilt that will be slower than might be expected, which will translate into a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers estimates. The last time these teams played the Hawks pounded the Warriors by a DD deficit and now I expect the Warriors to be more vigilant defensively.Note: Kerr is 35-18 UNDER in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent as the coach of GOLDEN STATE with a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored.GOLDEN STATE is 34-21 UNDER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons. GOLDEN STATE is 18-9 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 222.9 ppg scored. The Warriors are 0-10 UNDER L/10 after they had at least 5 turnovers more than their season-to-date average last game with a combined average of 211 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a same season loss vs opponent against opponent off a road blowout win by 20 points or more are 47-17 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 215 | 86-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
The Lakers modus operandi has been a top tier brand of defense , as is evident by ranking 2nd in the league in ppg allowed, behind what is now a short handed offense that ranks 22nd in ppg scored this season. The Lakers have gone under in 9 of their L/10 games. Competing here against the explosive Clippers Im betting will see the Lakers be even more attentive in transition which will dictate a slower pace (ranked 15th in the league) than is usually the case and this this will translate into a combined score that does not eclipse this offered number. LA LAKERS are 16-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 210.7 ppg. LA LAKERS are 20-4 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season for a combined average of 211.4 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 16-3 UNDER versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 215 ppg. LA LAKERS are 23-8 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game this season with a combined average of 215.1 ppg scored. LA LAKERS are 10-2 UNDER versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season with a combined average of 212.7 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 92-38 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-04-21 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (1-1, 2.91 ERA in 2020) is scheduled to oppose Zach Davies (7-4, 2.73 ERA in 2020) in a battle of right-handers. Its another windy April day in Chicago and these two pitchers and their bullpens should provide us with a lower scoring affair in difficult conditions. Under is 6-1 in Pirates last 7 vs. National League Central. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. UNDER |
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04-04-21 | Twins v. Brewers UNDER 8 | 8-2 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 39 m | Show | |
Minnesota will send right-hander Michael Pineda to the mound against Milwaukee right-hander Adrian Houser on Sunday afternoon in the rubber game of their season-opening three-game series in Milwaukee. My projections estimate both hurlers matchup well against the others batting order and should go fairly deep. .Under is 7-2 in Twins last 9 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-2 in Twins last 9 road games.Under is 16-5-3 in Twins last 24 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 39-18-4 in Twins last 61 overall.Under is 39-18-4 in Twins last 61 on grass.Under is 45-22-2 in Twins last 69 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 6-0 in Brewers last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 7-0 in Brewers last 7 games following a loss.Under is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 15-6 in Brewers last 21 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 36-15-3 in Brewers last 54 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 overall. Play UNDER |
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04-03-21 | Cavs v. Heat OVER 204.5 | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
Cleveland has been held under 100 points in each of its past four games, but all the more need to open up, which will effect their defensive numbers. Miami popped 116 points on the board last time out, and are more than capable of putting points on the board here. MIAMI is 9-0 OVER as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.2 ppg. MIAMI is 15-4 OVER in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 226 ppg going on the board. MIAMI is 11-1 OVER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.7 ppg. CLEVELAND is 13-4 OVER in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 225.4 ppg were scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games are 25-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - in a game involving two horrible defensive teams (102 or more PPG) after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more 2 straight games are 35-11 OVER L/24 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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04-02-21 | Bucks v. Blazers UNDER 236.5 | 127-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
These teams have plenty of offensive fire power, but they both still possess some physical defensive attributes, and Im betting those stopping qualities will shine in this tilt between top tier sides. I expect both teams to pay special attention to defense especially in transition. Bucks HC Budenholzer is 83-56 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) in all games he has coached with the average combined score ringing in at 209.9 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE/ PORTLAND) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 29-4 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42+ games, after a combined score of 205 points or more are 33-7 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PORTLAND) - after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 34-8 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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04-02-21 | Rockets v. Celtics UNDER 223.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Houston ranks 25th in ppg offence , while Boston ranks 16th in offensive ppg output. both have proven themselves highly inconsistent offensively and Im betting on more of the same muted action when they meet this Friday night. Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 games as a favorite. Under is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 games as a road underdog. HOUSTON is 18-4 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game this season with a combined average score of 216.6 ppg. HOUSTON is 25-9 UNDER versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 or less free throws/game this season for a combined average of 217.9 ppg. HOUSTON is 14-2 UNDER after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games this season with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored. Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Boston. Play UNDER |
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04-02-21 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 225.5 | 77-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
The Raptors in my opinion are in tank mode and playing with little or no motivation, and their offence has proven futile for a quite a while now. The Raptors are 0-12 UNDER L/12 at home off a loss in which they shot under 40% from the field, which was the case last time out. Torontos opponent Golden State, is 20-9 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons . This game has sleeper written all over it, that will translate to a lower scoring affair. Play on the UNDER |
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04-01-21 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 219 | 115-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
New Orleans enters this game off a 115-109 win vs Boston on the road last time out. But now on in a letdown spot could start slowly, which could see their improving defensive game lapse early giving us the room for a faster pace game as this tilt progresses giving an edge for this total to go over the offered number. NEW ORLEANS is 12-0 OVER in home games off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 243.5 ppg scored.Van Gundy is 11-1 OVER in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 88 or more shots/game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat UNDER 219.5 | 109-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
The Heat rank 27th in offensive output per game in the league and rank 3rd in defense ppg in the league behind a grinding pace that ranks 28th in the NBA. Seth Curry and company may want to open up but with the Heat dictating the pace of their games. Im betting this will be a sloshy affair that runs much slower than even this totals number indicates. GOLDEN STATE is 9-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207. 8 ppg scored. MIAMI is 12-4 UNDER when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) this season with a combined average of 205.1 ppg going on the board. The Warriors are 0-13-1 UNDER by more than 20 points a game as a dog with rest off a game as a dog in which they had less than 10% of their points from free throws with none of the game sin this 14 game set going over this offered number. Play UNDER |
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04-01-21 | 76ers v. Cavs OVER 210.5 | 114-94 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
The Sixers are off a loss last time out which was their 2nd straight and now i expect a more aggressive offensive effort after producing just 95 points last time out whihc will help this combined score get eclipsed . The Seventysixers are 11-0 OVER L/12 as a favorite coming off a loss as a road dog with a combined average of 235.9 ppg scored. NBA road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - good shooting team - shooting 46% or better on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 35% of their shots or worse are 22-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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03-31-21 | Kings v. Spurs UNDER 231 | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
Sacramento took out the Spurs 132-115 when they played a couple of days ago, and now Im betting the Spurs paying alot more attention to defence especially in transition which should slow this game down a bit. Which I am betting helps keep this combined score on the low side of the total. SAN ANTONIO is 9-1 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 213.4 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 32-17 UNDER in home games versus good shooting teams - making 46% or more of their shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season are 39-13 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT shooting team (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, hot shooting team - 2 straight games making 50% or more of their shots are 27-3 UNDER L/24 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-31-21 | Rockets v. Nets UNDER 231.5 | 108-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
Brooklyn smashed Houston 132-114 on March 3rd and now knowing they cannot run with this type of juggernaut they will hunker down and try to turn this game into a physical affair , which will translate into a lower scoring game. HOUSTON is 14-4 UNDER versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons. HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored. HOUSTON is 21-8 UNDER revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 212.4 ppg scored. The Rockets are 0-14-1 UNDER L/15 coming off a 10+ point loss as a home dog with a combined average of 210. 6 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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03-31-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets UNDER 6 | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Leafs expected starting goalie Campbell owns a 2.01 goals-against average and .942 save percentage in four career starts versus Winnipeg. Meanwhile, Winnipeg's starting goalie the Reigning Vezina Trophy recipient Connor Hellebuyck has turned aside 114 of 118 shots during his personal four-game winning streak. the last time these teams met Winnipeg won 5-2. Note: TORONTO is 7-1 UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 4 or more goals this season. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (WINNIPEG) - off a road blowout win by 3 goals or more, a good team (60% to 70%) playing a team with a winning record are 33-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-30-21 | 76ers v. Nuggets UNDER 220.5 | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
For 9 straight games the Sixers did not allow more than 109 points to opposing offenses, and than last time out allowed 122 points. Im now betting on them coming back and paying special attention to defense especially in transition, which Im betting helps keep this tilt on the low side of the total. Note : Their opponent Denver, ranks 29th in pace, so with the pressure Im betting the Sixers bring , this game will be alot slower than anticipated by the lines-makers.Under is 5-1-1 in 76ers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 88-44 L/24 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 153 | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |
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03-29-21 | Bucks v. Clippers UNDER 232 | 105-129 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
This has been a grueling season for NBA teams, as they take part in a condensed league schedule. The Bucks are now playing their 3rd game in 4 days and are pretty banged up , despite of most of their starters expected to play tonight and Im betting they will not want to take part in anything that resembles a run and gun affair, much like their meeting in late Feb that saw the Clippers lose to the Bucks by a 105-100 score. Im once again betting on defence, and special attention paid to transitional ball to help keep this combined score on the low side of the total. MILWAUKEE is 21-8 UNDER L/29 versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or better of their shots - 2nd half of the season with a combined average of 190.6 ppg. MILWAUKEE is 31-17 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 219.6 ppg scored. LA CLIPPERS are 19-9 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored.
NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (LA CLIPPERS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 39-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 35-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate. |
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03-29-21 | Mavs v. Thunder UNDER 221.5 | 127-106 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
The Mavericks are 0-16 UNDER L/16 as a road favorite when the line is at least eight points lower than their last game going under by more than 19 ppg. Under is 6-0 in Mavericks last 6 games following a straight up loss. Under is 12-4 in Mavericks last 16 overall.Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. |
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03-28-21 | Louisiana Tech v. Colorado State UNDER 141 | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. |