Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-17-18 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss OVER 47 | 20-21 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 27 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech’s offense is led by junior quarterback J’Mar Smith has 13 passing touchdowns with eight interceptions and 2300+ passing yards and two rushing touchdowns and can light up the board in conservative duel threat fashion against the best of defences, which Southern Miss owns . Meanwhile, LA Tech is also solid defensively, but Im betting Southern Miss should do fine here today no matter which one of their QBs starts ( Jack Abraham or Tate Whately). Im expecting more points than the low total estimations which are based on defensive stats alone. Play OVER |
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11-17-18 | Texas State v. Drake OVER 137.5 | 69-75 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Drakes D, was exposed to be very weak last time out by the Colorado Buffs as they allowed 101 points in a loss. Today I expect Texas State a team that is 2-0 on the season and off scoring 97 points last time out to also do some damage. Drake will Im betting reciprocate with some offensive fire works of their own , in the one facet of their game that looks to be decent and that is their offence. DRAKE is 6-0 OVER after allowing 90 points or more over the last 3 season with the average combined score clicking in at 160 ppg.DRAKE is 6-0 OVER as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of with a combined average of 150.3 ppg going on the board.TEXAS ST is 16-4 OVER in road games off a home win with a combined average of 142.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-17-18 | Old Dominion v. Kennesaw State UNDER 130 | 65-47 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
Both these teams are struggling to score. With Kenn State averging just 62.3 ppg and Old Dominion averaging 55.2 ppg. Both are playing methodical styles of basketball with their defences being their strong points. Kenn State allows an average og 60.5 ppg while Old Dominion allows 61.3 ppg. OLD DOMINION is 19-5 UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 139.5 . CBB Neutral court teams against the total (/KENN ST/OLD DOMINION) - in a game involving two struggling offensive teams (63 or less PPG) are 100-52 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-17-18 | Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest UNDER 60 | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
A come-from-behind upset win over No. 22 North Carolina State and controlled fashion, now has Wake actually talking Bowl invitation. The 27-23 win was methodical in nature, which is different than how the Demon Deacons have played their games this season. Meanwhile, the Panthers have alot to play for as well, with a clear path ahead to the ACC title game against Clemson on the horizon. With that said, look for both teams to be conservative in their approaches today with neither wanting to make mistakes, which Im betting results in a lower scoring game than the lines makers expect. PITTSBURGH is 8-1 UNDER in road lined games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.3 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored and is 7-0 UNDER off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 44 ppg going on the board.PITTSBURGH is 12-3 UNDER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 450 or more yards/game. Clawson is 23-9 UNDER in home games after playing a conference game in all games he has coached with a combined average of 47.3 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-17-18 | Michigan v. George Washington UNDER 132 | 84-61 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
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11-16-18 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Nevada OVER 153 | 59-87 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
The Little Rock Trojans are coached by former NBA veteran Darrell Walker. Little Rock, like ranked Nevada, are built to push the ball in an up-tempo pace. The Trojans are averaging 92 points in their two wins and are no pushovers . Im betting on this tilt eclipsing the Total. Musselman is 9-1 OVER in home games off a home win by 10 points or more as the coach of NEVADA. with a combined average of 157.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-16-18 | Raptors v. Celtics UNDER 214 | 116-123 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
The Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors are front runners for a Eastern Conference championship, and when these two hard nosed competitors meet this evening, Im expecting a very physical affair that will base alot of action on each team focusing on transitional defence. The Raptors rank 9th in defensive efficiency while the Celtics rank 1st in Defensive efficiency. Im betting on a post season type affair that will not be very free flowing and a end result of a combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. None of the L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed the total. TORONTO is 16-5 UNDER in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 200.9 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up recordNBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (TORONTO) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game, after 4 straight games where both teams scored 100 points or more are 4-0 UNDER this season and 36-14 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-16-18 | Loyola Marymount v. Georgetown UNDER 147 | 65-52 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show | |
JAMAICA CLASSIC - Round 1 - Montego Bay Convention Centre - Jamaica My projections based on both teas systems, suggests a total closer to 141. Thus giving us value on what my numbers say is a bloated number, based on only recent performance data. GEORGETOWN is 17-6 UNDER as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.5 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (GEORGETOWN) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG, after 2 straight games where both teams score 75 points or more re 29-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-16-18 | Georgia Southern v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 155 | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
BAHAMAS SHOWCASE - Round 1 - Kendal Isaacs Gym - Grand Bahama Island This steamed up to 155 after the opening and is now inflated enough for me to recommend we make a under wager here. Not sure where all the initial action came from but it was bolstered by public money and very little if any sharp money. Perceptions lead to irrational exuberance, as both these teams have come gang busters with offensive explosions in their games, but both actually key their successes and failures on playing good D, and thats what Im expecting here today. GA SOUTHERN is 7-0 UNDER in road games after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 135.9 ppg scored.FLA ATLANTIC is 6-0 UNDER off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 136.2 ppg scored. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GA SOUTHERN) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 4 or more points/game, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (FLA ATLANTIC) - with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 41-18 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-15-18 | Cal-Irvine v. Santa Clara UNDER 136 | 61-49 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My own projections based on system vs systems analysis, suggests this total should be closer to 131. Thus giving us value on this line to the under. UC Irvine is a defence first team that has allowed 64.7 ppg so this season in 3 tilts. Meanwhile, Santa Clara scored 64 points in their lone game, vs Grand Prairie and should struggle again vs this D. Im betting on a methodical approach here from Santa Clara, in an effort to stay competitive. This will result in a low scoring affair. UC-IRVINE is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 126.8 ppg scored. SANTA CLARA in their L/8 home game where the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 131.4 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-15-18 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas OVER 63.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantic and North Texas do battle in a contest that Im betting eclipses the Total. N.Texas has averaged 40.4 ppg at home in offence this season. Meanwhile, Florida Atlantic despite of being inconsistent on offence has the guns to light any team in the Sun Belt . They nailed 52 points on Old dominion and scored 36 on UCF on the road and have had back to back outputs of 49 and 34 points. Their Achilles heel remains a defence that has allowed an average of 37.8 ppg on the road. Everything points to offensive fireworks here tonight. FAU scored 41 last year and 59 points the year before vs North Texas, and now N.Texas looks to do damage to in retaliation mode. Play OVER |
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11-15-18 | Oral Roberts v. BYU OVER 147.5 | 65-85 | Win | 100 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that BYU should score in the upper 70s while Oral Roberts should put in the low sixties on the board. Projected 76-to 79 points for BYU 61-64 for Oral Roberts. We have value here on this number as the combined score should project at or above 148. ORAL ROBERTS is 11-2 OVER after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 153.5 ppg scored.ORAL ROBERTS is 14-4 OVER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons.BYU L/6 after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 3 seasons have seen the followup see a combined score of 153.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-15-18 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 219.5 | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets will bang heads tonight in what promises to be a physical affair. The Warriors will be without the often injured Step Curry but are expected to have Draymond Green back in the lineup but may not play a great deal becasue of a toe issue, which should slow their offensive production and see them more concentrated on sound defensive play. The Warriors as per news reports and obvious on court confrontations among themselves , are showing us what its like when this many big egos are put into the same dressing room. But when the game starts their still a team to contend with and Im betting come out here and play hard as a team. Meanwhile, the Rockets thanks to keeping pretty boy Carmelo Anthony on the sidelines , are a more rugged team , behind a under rated defense continues to improve as is evident by a 6th overall ppg defesnive ranking and a methodical calculated pace that is 29th in the league. HOUSTON is 12-2 UNDER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206 ppg going on the board. HOUSTON is 16-4 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.5 ppg going on the board.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 73-31 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-14-18 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 225 | 117-126 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Portland has gone under the total in 7 of their L/8 games thanks to playing a top tier brand of defence, that has seen them hold 4 different opponents to 93 points or less. The Blazers own the leagues 5th best D ,both in points allowed 106.2 and efficiency 105.9 and will primed to grind the free wheeling Lakers down in this spot and not allow them flow. This Im betting takes a more than enough points off this totals number to seen this score stay on the low side of the digits. Note: Lakers games have had some bloated Totals attached to them which has resulted in 7 of their L/8 games and and 5 in row failing to eclipse the total . The L/7 meetings here in LA between these two teams have stayed under the total. Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 overall.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 3-0-1 in Lakers last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 5-0-1 in Lakers last 6 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-0-1 in Lakers last 5 home games.Under is 6-0-1 in Lakers last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Lakers last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2-1 in Lakers last 8 Wednesday games. Portland is 13-4 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 206.6 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 23-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.8 ppg. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PORTLAND) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 46-19 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - after going under the total by more than 12 points in two consecutive games against opponent after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 49-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-14-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Duke OVER 150 | 46-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
Duke scored 118 points in their opener vs Kentucky, and 97 points vs Army in their last game at home,, and it does not matter what E.Michigan does to slow this game down Duke will score at will and run and gun the visitors into the ground behind a pro style offence and could come close to eclipsing this total all by themselves. DUKE is 11-0 OVER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 165.6 ppg scored.DUKE is 8-0 OVER ( off a home win scoring 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons eith a combined average of 174.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-14-18 | Louisiana-Monroe v. Michigan State UNDER 144 | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
UL Monroe is really out classed here by Michigan State , and despite of having some decent cogs in the backcourt, just ant hang with this type of team and will struggle to put points up on the board. With that said, I expect them to try to slow this game down to crawl in order to compete, as they did in their game against the Texas Longhorns losing by 65-55 count. It must be noted that MSU HC Izzo is troubled that his team is averaging 17 turnovers, leading to 18.5 points per game off them. The first two opponents have shot 45.0 percent overall and 42.9 percent on 3-point tries and Im betting he has his team trying to make sure their defensive issues are worked on vs a lower tier team.LA-MONROE is 18-8 UNDER as a road underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons. MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 UNDER when playing only their 2nd game in a week over the last 2 seasons. Izzo is 13-5 UNDER after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games as the coach of MICHIGAN ST with a combined average of 132.1 ppg scored. on the UNDER |
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11-13-18 | Drake v. Colorado UNDER 149 | 71-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
Drake allowed just 52 points in its opener, and will not be easily scored upon hereby a methodical and very young Colorado offence that is playing their first game of the season. Fluidity could be a problem for the Buffs, but their D, should be well prepared to be physical with a Drake team that will run and gun if allowed. DRAKE is 11-2 UNDER L/13 as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points with a combined average score of 127.2 ppg scored. COLORADO is 24-11 UNDER as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 142 ppg scored. Play on UNDER |
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11-13-18 | Coastal Carolina v. Tulane OVER 145 | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My own projections estimate we have value on this total right to the 147.5 range. Coastal Carolina has averaged 88 ppg in offence in their first two games, while Tulane looked weak on defence last time out, in their only game allowing 80 points. Im betting on More of the same action here , as Coastal lights up the board vs a unorganized defensive group, and Tulanes response will be to respond or be blown off the court, which will in turn help this game eclipse the Total. COASTAL CAROLINA is 14-4 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 150 ppg going on the scoreboard.TULANE is 24-10 OVER after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 149 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-13-18 | Western Michigan v. Ball State OVER 55 | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
Ball States defence has been atrocious over the L/3 weeks allowing 42,52,45 points respectively. W.Michigan despite of being without their starting QB Jon Wassink are still capable slicing and dicing this putrid downtrending Ball State D, by using key cog junior RB Levante Bellamy ranks No. 10 in college football with 907 yards rushing to set up the option. Meanwhile, Ball State despite of also being without starting QB Riley Neal should also do damage vs a Broncos D, that has allowed 51, 49 points in back to back games. BALL ST is 8-1 OVER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 64.1 ppg scored. BALL ST is 6-0 OVER in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 73.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. CFB Road teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W MICHIGAN) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games, in November games are 43-18 OVER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-12-18 | Warriors v. Clippers UNDER 230.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
The Clippers' own a defensive-minded backcourt buoyed by Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. This duo and other parts of this team were put together, in part, to deal with explosive backcourts like the one from the they will play tonight. However, that talented backcourt of the Warriors has some injuries, and could possibly be without Curry tonight . Tonight Im betting , that the Clippers HC Head coach Doc Rivers will use two full rotations of players, to be fresh enough to be physical and control the Warriors speed. This should mute some flow from this game, and thus scratch a few points off the expected combined score, in a game Im betting that will result in a under wager cashing for us in this spot. Under is 22-8 in Warriors last 30 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 18-7-1 in Warriors last 26 vs. Western Conference.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 10-4 in Clippers last 14 games following a straight up win.GOLDEN STATE is 29-10 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230 with a combined average of 224.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 117-85 UNDER in home games after a non-conference game with the combined average score of 197.2 ppg scored.LA CLIPPERS are 80-49 UNDER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game with a combined average of 198.1 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 38-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 216 ppg going n the score board. Play UNDER |
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11-12-18 | Denver v. Kansas State OVER 137 | 56-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Kansas States HC Webers system and calling card has always been based on playing a solid brand of defensive ball. But today against a lower tier non conference team ( Denver), I expect the Wildcats to be a little more free wheeling, and for this total to be eclipsed. DENVER is 18-8 OVER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 150.9 ppg .DENVER is 12-3 OVER in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 151.8 ppg. Play OVER |
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11-12-18 | Utah v. Minnesota UNDER 147 | 69-78 | Push | 0 | 4 h 12 m | Show | |
These are two teams and coaches that base their successes and failures on playing top tier defence. The Utes have three 7-footers on their roster (Novak Topalovic, Jayce Johnson and Brandon Morley). They rank 19th in the nation in average height (78.4 inches). They use their height well within this system of tough inside play and good rebounding. Minnesota's physcial Big 10 group will reciprocate with some strong physical action of their own in what Im betting will be a low scoring affair. UTAH is 18-9 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 141.4 ppg scored. Krystkowiak is 35-22 UNDER when the total is 140 to 149.5 as the coach of UTAH with a combined average of 142.8 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-12-18 | Pelicans v. Raptors UNDER 233 | 126-110 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
The Raptors can run and gun behind an explosive offense , but their defence is under rated and currently ranked 8th in DEF Rating efficiency (106.7 ppg) behind the 10th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, in the early part of this season were seen as a all out one attacking team, that trys to outscore their opponents on the run. But their last two wins have been predicated by playing top tier brand of defence, that kept those opponents at 99 points or less. Im betting the success of those above mentioned outings and victories will see Gentrys troops alot more focused on playing top tier defence in a unfriendly road environment against a dangerous opponent. Look for an expect a more muted total combined score than the linesmakers number might suggest. Under is 4-1 in Pelicans last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a 216combined average score of 216 ppg going on the board. Play on the UNDER |
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11-12-18 | St Bonaventure v. Niagara UNDER 152.5 | 72-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies turned to their defense to even their record 1-1 with a 67-36 win versus Jackson State and that will be their key in this game vs Niagara. Schmidt is 34-17 UNDER in road games in non-conference games as the coach of ST BONAVENTURE with a combined average of 138.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-0 in Bonnies last 5 road games.Under is 8-2 in Bonnies last 10 non-conference games.CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (ST BONAVENTURE) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 31-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 46 m | Show | |
The Eagles are only 4-4 coming off their bye week and take on a Dallas side that is 3-5 on the season. This contest features a Eagles team that bases its successes and failures on top tier defence and a methodical attack that averages 19 ppg in offense at home and a team in Dallas that has problems scoring especially on the road averaging just 13.5 ppg (0-4 UNDER this season). The Eagles are particularly stingy /conservative at home, going UNDER in 16 of their L/22 home tilts. Meanwhile, Dallas has gone under in 15 of their L/20 road games and when the total is 43 or less they have gone under 5 of 6 times. I know the Cowboys played a high scoring game last time out, but Im betting that won't be the case this Sunday night. Dallas is 0-7 L/7 UNDER on Sun Nights . Philly is 0-3 UNDER L/3 vs Dallas. The Cowboys are 8-24-1 UNDER against any team off a bye and 2-13-1 UNDER record on the road. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at just 31.1 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return over the last 3 seasons. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets OVER 223 | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
Milwaukee comes at their opponents with a run and gun take no prisoners attitude, and essentially force any all opponents to partake with some offensive fireworks of their own this or be blown off the court. The Bucks rank 4th in pace and 2nd in offence (121 .7 ppg) in the league a even though the Nuggets operate at a slower pace, Im betting they will have to up their speed or like I said get crushed by a high flying group. The Nuggets are on a couple days rest so they will be ready . One last thing, I know the thin air of Denver, can take its toll on visiting squads, but the Bucks are one of the leagues best conditioned teams and should have no problems with energy despite of playing last night. The L/2 meetings (lat season) have seem combined scores of 253 and 257 poinss going on the board. DENVER is 47-24 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 224.7ppg scored. MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.4 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (MILWAUKEE) - after going over the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a combined average of 226.5 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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11-11-18 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 44 | 22-34 | Loss | -105 | 69 h 49 m | Show | |
The Lions (3-5) are struggling mightily and known the division basement after scoring just 19 points in consecutive losses to the Seattle Seahawks and Vikings. Detroit failed to get into the end zone in the 24-9 loss at Minnesota and quarterback Matthew Stafford has been sacked 10 times. It hasn't helped the WR Golden Tate was traded away by the Lions , and leaves you scratching your head for answers to why it was done. Detroits entire offensive line looks lost and scoring won't come easily again this week vs the Bears with defensive stalwart Khalil Mack expected back in the Bears lineup. The Bears even with Mack out allowed their L/2 opponents to a combined 19 points and not allowing a touchdown in either game until the fourth quarter. Key Trend: The Lions are 0-6 OU L/6 on the road off a road game in which they made 4 or fewer third downs. Im betting the Lions will have problems converting this week, and for this to have a direct effect on the total combined score , which Im betting ends up on the low side of the Total. Note: The Lions have gone under in 9 of their L/11 as division road dogs. Under is 4-1 in Bears last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road recordUnder is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Chicago. Play UNDER |
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11-11-18 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 47 | 26-29 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 6 m | Show | |
The Jaguars are desperate for wins and have lost 4 straight after starting their season at 3-1 including a win vs the New England Patriots. They are off their bye week and should be fresh and ready to take on Andrew Luck and his Colts this week. I know for a certainity that they have no plans of getting their QB Bortles to go head to head with Andrew Luck, so Im betting on a more methodical conservative approach here that should slow this game down to their liking , and which in turn will help see this Total combined score stay on the low side of the Total. The Colts had a alot of good results runnign the ball this week, so I can see them coming right back and being happy to pound the ball again here, against a team that will most likely do the same. The Jaguars have gone UNDER 8 straihg times on the road when their ATS margin increased over their past two games.The Colts have gone under 8 straight times at home off a road game in which they rushed for at least 50 yards more than their average which was the case last week, and are also 10-0 UNDER when they are facing a divisional opponent and they are off a victory in when they had at least 8 more rushes than their season-to-date average and accumulated at least 100 rushing yards. The Colts have gone under 6 straihgt times at home after they outgained their opponent. NDIANAPOLIS is 8-0 UNDER in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.9 ppg scored.INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons witht he average combined score clicking in at 43.5 ppg. NFLHome teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after scoring 30 points or more last game are 29-7 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% covnersion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 41-16 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Colorado State v. Nevada UNDER 63.5 | 10-49 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show | |
Colorado State is struggling on offence and have only averaged 23.2 ppg on the road this season while, Nevada has allowed an average of 26 ppg at home. Colorado State has a crap run defence allowing an average of 207 ypg, and despite of Nevada liking to air it out, I expect the Wolfpack will consistently attack the perceived weakness of the Rams D on the ground which will eat up alot of clock. This along with the Rams offensive futility Im betting results in game that stays on the low side of the number. CFB team against the total (NEVADA) - average rushing team(+/- 40 RY/G) against a terrible team who is outrushed by 80+ YPG after 7+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 40-12 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | California v. USC UNDER 46.5 | 15-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
California has a conservative formula which relies on the defense to keep games close, smash away on the ground , and grab points any way they can. They have scored 17 points or fewer in four of the last five games. The trojans should have no problems slowing down the Bears muted attack, and in turn the Bears are capable enough on defense to hold USC below their season average.CALIFORNIA is 7-1 UNDER in all lined games this season and have gone under in 5 straight. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Lakers v. Kings UNDER 240 | 101-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
This is a Kings team that will be playing the second night of a home back-to-back games, and Im expecting them to be more tempered in their approach tonight on tired legs. The Kings last 4 home games have stayed under the Total, and it must be noted that SACRAMENTO is 16-4 UNDER versus explosive offensive teams like the Lakers - scoring 110+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 208.8 ppg on the scoreboard. I know the Lakers on a couple days rest should be fresh, and ready to run but with addition of veteran Tyson Chandler into the Lakers lineup I expect the way the Lakers play will be more balanced with a greater respect and attention placed on playing good defence. The Lakers early season defensive inefficiencies and their explosive offensive weapons have seen recent games see high totals attached to their tilts, and as a result these over compensations have seen 4 straight games stay under the total, and tonight Im betting this Total is also to high. SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons and overall is 24-9 UNDER after allowing 105 points or more 3 straight games over the last 3 season with the combined average score of the home games clicking in at 205.8 ppg. SACRAMENTO in their L/8 home games after allowing 110 points or more 3 straight games have seen a combined average score of 199.2 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent off an home win scoring 110 or more points are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies UNDER 210 | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
The Sixers played an intense game against Charlotte last night, winning 133-132 in OT and will now be playing their 5th game since Nov 3. Needless to say the Sixers should be on tired legs and in not way or shape ready to run here tonight and will have to rely to an extent on their defence to be competitive which is ranked 10th in the league in efficiency Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are back to being a team that was feared prior to last season, behind a top tier D , as is evident by having held 5 diff opponents under 97 points and rank No.1 in the league in points allowed (100.6 ) and 30th in pace . Their 29th ranked offense tells a story of a methodical side, that bases it successes and failures on defence and tonight Im betting nothing changes. MEMPHIS is 10-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205.6 ppg scored.PHILADELPHIA in their L/40 in road games off a close home win by 3 points or less have seen a combined average score of 195.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MEMPHIS/PHILADELPHIA ) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 204.3 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Clemson v. Boston College UNDER 57 | 27-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show | |
The Tigers beat the Eagles 34-7 last year in Death Valley, and I won't be surprised at another combined score in the 40s again here in chilly Boston here tonight. CLEMSON is 7-0 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season over the last 2 season with a combined average of 41.9 ppg scored.BOSTON COLLEGE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 47.8 ppg scored. CLEMSON is 14-2 UNDER after scoring 42 points or more in 2 straight games with a combined average of 49.2 ppg scored. CFB team against the total (CLEMSON) - after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games are 44-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech OVER 52 | 13-28 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
Rice has allowed an average of 42.3 ppg on the road this season, and that season defensive average has a good chance of being breached or met again by a LA Tech team that has averaged 30.7 ppg at home vs some decent defences like UAB that has 2 shut outs this season. I look for the Tech to score above their season average and for Rice to do just enough damage to help this combined score put up enough digits on the scoreboard to eclipse this total. LOUISIANA TECH is 24-10 OVER versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6.25 or more yards/play. LOUISIANA TECH is 11-2 OVER as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points with a. combined average of 69.5 ppg scored. The last 3 meetings in this series have gone over , with the most recent two games seeing an average combined score of 7 0 and 78 points per game get scored. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | Morehead State v. Syracuse UNDER 134.5 | 70-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
Syracuse D, looked tremendous in their opener vs E.Washington holding their opposition to just 34 points in methodical fashion. A repeat looks to be on todays agenda vs a Morehead State team on tired legs as they play their 3rd game in 4 days. SYRACUSE is 8-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of with a combined average of 123.3 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | Western Kentucky v. Florida Atlantic OVER 58 | 15-34 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 41 m | Show | |
Florida Atlantics offence has been inconsistent this season, but they are just off teeing off on Florida International scoring 49 points. Overall on the season the Owls have been explosive at home scoring an average of 36.7 ppg. Today against a below average Western Kentucky defence allowing 30 ppg Im expecting them to hit or go above their average output again and for the Hilltoppers to do just enough damage to help facilitate this combined score eclipsing the Total. W KENTUCKY is 7-0 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 83.7 ppg going on the board. CFB team against the total (FLA ATLANTIC) - team outrushing opponents by 50+ YPG against a team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games are 67-33 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | East Carolina v. Tulane UNDER 54 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
East Carolina has averaged just 9.5 ppg on the road this season, and Im betting they wont do much damage here again vs Tulane. The Green Wave's defense has allowed 416.4 yards per game through Week 10, which ranks No. 87 in college football. Tulane loves to run, and grind away, and that will eat clock time down, which in turn will have a negative effect on total output. TULANE is 8-1 UNDER after outrushing opponent by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 season with a. combined average of 43 ppg going on the board. Play UNDER |
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11-10-18 | UCLA v. Arizona State OVER 63 | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 40 m | Show | |
UCLA ha allowed 34 ppg on average on the road this season, and could easily see that number eclipsed here. Arizona has averaged 33.6 ppg at home this season, and are good bet according to my numbers to eclipse that average by a TD or more . I than expect UCLAs sometimes capable offense to add to those above mentioned outputs and also do some damage in a game that will go above the total. ARIZONA ST is 6-0 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 200 or more rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.2 ppg going on the board.ARIZONA ST is 10-2 OVER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 72.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-10-18 | Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 50.5 | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
I cannot put my finger on it , but their something wrong with the Ohio State buckeyes fluidity. they just don't look like a championship calibre team despite of their 8-1 record. The most glaring issue is the Buckeyes D, but this week, Im betting that won't be a big problem from a methodical Spartans offence. Last week those issues were obvious, against Nebraska, but the Buckeyes secondary was banged up with three guys out, all are expected back this week. Meanwhile, Michigan State is very talented on the defensive side of the ball, and Im betting will make life difficult for Ohio State vaunted attack.MICHIGAN ST is 10-2 UNDER vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game over the last 3 seasons. When these teams played here back in 2016 35 total combined points were scored and more than 50 here is not a likely scenario. Play UNDER |
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11-09-18 | Cal-Irvine v. Texas A&M UNDER 144.5 | 74-73 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
Texas and Cal Irvine both put up alot of points in their first games, with Texas winning 93-82 vs Savannah State, and Cal Irvincd smasing Idaho 86-68. But from a matchup analysis trends sheet I use based on the type of systems both teams use, Im expecting a lower scoring affair here tonight. HC Kennedy in his L/18 games after scoring 85 points or more as the coach of TEXAS A&M has sen a combined average score of 139.2 ppg scored. HC Turner in 250 games in all lined games as the coach of UC-IRVINE has seen a combined average score of 136.6 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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11-08-18 | Clippers v. Blazers UNDER 226 | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
Portland can run and gun with the best of teams, but they can also be very tough to deal with defensively, as is evident by having held 3 of their L/6 opponents to 93 points or less. The teams they limited were Indiana ( 93) Houston (85) and Minnesota (81). Against this type of free wheeling Clippers team, Im betting behind their 5th best ppg D, and a pace that ranks 17th in the league they force the visitor to adapt to their pace, which will take the Clippers flow away and as result will effect the total offensive combined output of this affair. Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 overall.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 PORTLAND is 21-10 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) over the last 2 seasons with at the average combined score clicking in at 205.8 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 36-8 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
Both these teams are in a big time plus zone for scoring output entering this game. Pittsburgh is ranked No.2 in the league in offensive Red Zone with a 75% TD conversion rate , while Carolina is ranked No.5 with a 72% touch down conversion rate. Carolina has scored 36 and 42 points in their L/2 games and Pittsburgh has averaged 31.2 ppg at home this season. Im betting we don't see many punting opportunities here tonight in a tilt that has. strong possibility of going OVER the number. Carolina is a 7-0 OVER as non-div dogs 4 or less points and are 4-0 OVER aft score 35+ pts which happened last timeout and 9-1 OVER vs .666 or better foes and have gone OVER in 3 straight Thursday night road tilts. Steelers are 7-1 OVER as non-division home chalk 5 points or less and 5-1 OVER vs NFC South and 4-1 OVER L5 vs Carolina. The Steelers have gone OVER 14 straight times as a home favorite off a game as a dog in which their turnovers committed decreased by at least two over their previous game . NFL teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (CAROLINA) - an excellent offensive team (27 PPG or more) against a below average defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 24-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-08-18 | Evansville v. Illinois OVER 145.5 | 60-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show | |
Linesmakers out of the gate like to over compensate on games involving Evansville, because of their methodical system. From a matchup analysis system vs system player vs player power ranking totals system I use this Total is beatable to the over. My projections place this game against Illinois in the 152 range giving us value. EVANSVILLE is 15-5 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 144.5 and is 27-10 OVER in a road game where the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997/ Play OVER |
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11-08-18 | Wake Forest v. NC State OVER 69 | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
This Total just keeps steaming upward, as sharp money piles on the over.Wake Forest pulled an upset of a nationally ranked N.C. State team last year and now with revenge on board , I expect a motivated effort from the Wolfpack with the no mercy rule waived , which means NC State will keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish behind an offence that has averaged 35 ppg at home this season. The average output should be upped by at least 10 points according to my projections vs a Wake Forest D, that is atrocious having allowed 37.2 ppg this season. The Daemon Deacons do however, own a offence that is the polar opposite of their D, and has proven their efficiency moving the ball as they average 32.3 ppg of offence. Look for NC State to pile up the points and for Wake First to do their best Buster Douglas impersonation and come back with some lucky haymakers of their own in a game Im betting eclipses the Total. Note: WAKE FOREST is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. sub par passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 86.8 ppg going on the scoreboard. CFB Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 63 (WAKE FOREST) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 41-12 OVER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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11-08-18 | Siena v. George Washington OVER 140.5 | 69-61 | Loss | -118 | 3 h 33 m | Show | |
This selection is based on a score projection algorithm trend that I have been using for close to a decade. It has converted at 62% clip over 722 game selection sample. GEORGE WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER in home games after playing a game as favorite over the last 3 seasons. Play on the OVER |
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11-07-18 | Bulls v. Pelicans UNDER 230.5 | 98-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
Chicago enters this road game vs New Orleans banged up with Lauri Markkanen (elbow), Kris Dunn (knee), Bobby Portis (knee) and Denzel Valentine (ankle) all expected to miss Wednesday's game which should slow them offensively tonight in the Bayou. Note: Chicago ranks 22nd in offence in the league, and 25th in pace. Meanwhile, New Orleans is playing their first home game since embarking on a gruelling 5 game road trip against some explosive opponents that have seen a lot of offense ( Denver, San Antonio, Portland, Godlen St. Oklahoma City). Still recuperating and getting acclimated to playing at home again Im betting they won't be fresh enough to want to run and gun with wreck-less abandon and will be also out to make sure their defensive haemorrhaging stops which has them ranked last in the league ppg allowed. My projections estimate a projected combined score in the range of 224 which gives us value on this number. Ive also taken into consideration rule changes which have added to offensive outputs , so our cushion according to those estimations give us an edge to the UNDER. HC Gentry Pelicans in their L/21 home games when playing against a struggling team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) have seen a combined average of 220.4 ppg scored. Gentry L/19 in home games after playing 3 consecutive road games as the coach of NEW ORLEANS has seen he and his opponents coming to average 222.7 ppg in offensives output. CHICAGO in its L/24 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 216.5 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CHICAGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a struggling team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 26-3 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-07-18 | Ohio v. Miami-OH OVER 63 | 28-30 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 2 m | Show | |
Miami O and Ohio ,both have explosive offences. Ohio has averaged 40+ ppg on the season and Miami O has not scored less than 30 points in any of their L/6 games averaging 36.8 ppg. With that said, Im betting on a back forth affair here, that eclipses the beatable total. Ohio U won a 45-28 slugfest last season, and a repeat type combined score is a high probability outcome again. MIAMI OHIO is 6-0 OVER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 71.2 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-07-18 | Western Carolina v. Wright State OVER 147 | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 1 h 36 m | Show | |
LATE STEAM- My projections estimate a combined score in the range of 150+ giving us value on the offered number. Im estimating that W.Carolina scores in the low to mid 60s on offence. Note:W CAROLINA is 8-0 OVER in road games when they score 61 to 66 points in a game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 153.4 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-06-18 | Bucks v. Blazers UNDER 229 | 103-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
These teams can be explosive offensively but the lines-makers are in my humble opinion over estimating total output . I base my own assumptions/projections on my power ranking systems, and head to head systems matchup analysis. They point to a total closer to 224 , which gives us value to the under on this current number. Yes, their have been some higher scoring variables because of some rule changes in the NBA this season but I have calculated that into those above mentioned projections. PORTLAND is 20-9 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207 ppg going on the board.MILWAUKEE in their L/25 games after after a combined score of 215 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 224.3 ppg go on the board. Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Portland. NBA team (PORTLAND/MILWAUKEE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 48-12 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average combined score clicking in at 189.6 ppg. Play on the UNDER |
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11-06-18 | Oilers v. Lightning UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 35 m | Show | |
The Oilers might have a big name super star in their lineup McDavid, but they still dont do alot of scoring consistently as their 17th ranking in goals scored indicates. Their defence is actually the corner stone of their ability to compete in the NHL and they rank 14th overall. Meanwhile, TB despite of alot offensive talent , predicate their successes and failures on their ability to play solid D, and rank 8th in in goals allowed in the league. Tonight I expect a tired Oilers team playing their 3rd game in 4 nights to try to be conservative in their approach , and for TB to center its abilities on slowing McDavid, which Im betting results in a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse the number. |
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11-06-18 | Michigan State v. Kansas UNDER 156 | 87-92 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 20 m | Show | |
Im expecting a physical game between these to teams tonight and a score that remains on the low side of the number, Izzo is 24-14 UNDER as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less or pick as the coach of MICHIGAN ST.Self is 21-11 UNDER (+8.9 Units) in road games in November games as the coach of KANSAS. CBB teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 10+ wins in last 12 games, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season are 31-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on the UNDER |
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11-05-18 | Titans v. Cowboys OVER 39.5 | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Both these teams are off bye weeks, and I expect that their freshness will make for a higher scoring game than the lines-makers expect . I know the Titans offence is stagnant, and that they rely on their defence to try to be competitive, but they have lost three straight and need to be more aggressive offensively if they hope to end their current negative run. Meanwhile, Dallas, has shown glimpses of offensive explosiveness this season, and a few weeks back put 40 points on the board vs what many believe to be a strong Jacksonville defence. My own power rankings and matchup projections points to the Cowboys being able to more than enough damage this week to help drag this game over the low total. Note: DALLAS is 9-1 OVER in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest with a combined average of 50 ppg going on the board. Monday night games this season have seen a combined average of 50.9 ppg go on the board. NFL Road teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half are 36-11 OVER L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (DALLAS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in November games are 26-3 OVER L/10 seasons with a combined average of 44.7 ppg scored with the average total listed at 40. Play on the OVER |
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11-04-18 | Knicks v. Wizards UNDER 227 | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
The Wizards enter this game ranked last in the league in points allowed (129.3) and were booed off the floor this past Friday night by their fans after a ugly 134-111 effort. I now expect the Wizards a side that has a 25th ranked off Ranking (106.1) to bring some energy to this tilt and to be more attentive and methodical in transition which Im betting takes some points off what is expected by the lines makers from the Wizards and from both teams. Note: Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.Meanwhile, the Knicks behind a young roster have settled down after a slow start and are playing more disciplined system, that has them ranked 9th in points allowed, behind a pace that is ranked 24th in the league (98.7) and a offence that is ranked 23rd in the league (107.3 ppg). What Im betting on happening here is for the Knicks to continue their current form, and for Washington to try to be more stout defensively, which will result in a score that does not eclipse this Total. Under is 4-0 in Knicks last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Under is 5-1 in Knicks last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 4-0-1 in Wizards last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. NEW YORK is 45-29 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.8 ppg. WASHINGTON's L/50 games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons has seen a combined average score of 218.2 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a losing record are 23-3 UNDER 22 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (WASHINGTON) - excellent free throw shooting team (79% or more) against a good free throw shooting team (76-79%) are 62-28 L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 59.5 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 23 m | Show | |
During the L/18 seasons ,there have been nine tilts with Totals line of 58 or more points They have seen an average of 66.4 ppg scored . None have gone under with one push. I'm betting on current trend continuing, as we see two of the best QBs in football Jared Goff and Drew Bree's do battle with a super star array of explosive NFL talent surrounding them. On the flip side both the rams and the Saints in my humble opinion have over rated defences, and that will be on full display here today. Let the fireworks begin. NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 OVER after 5 or more consecutive wins against the spread with a combined average of 63 ppg going on the board. New Orleans 3 home games this Eason have seen a combined average of 64 ppg go on the board. Play OVER |
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11-04-18 | Chiefs v. Browns UNDER 51.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL teams like KC laying a TD or more on the road, the UNDER is a strong play going under 19. of the L/20 times dating back 4 seasons for a 95% conversion rate for bettors on the low side of the Total. Meanwhile, the Browns are 0-13 UNDER L/13 as a TD-plus home dog. The Browns have also gone under in 5 straight at home vs .666 or better opposition. It must be noted that The Browns fired Hue Jackson this week and Defensive-Co ordinator Gregg Williams is at the helm of the team. In Williams L/26 games when he was the Bills HC he went 3-23 UNDER for a 88% conversion rate. He is extremely methodical in his approach, and Im betting against a very explosive Chiefs side he will be even more conservative if thats possible here today. This will result in a total combined score that remains on the low side of the Total. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 38-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (CLEVELAND) - off a road loss against a division rival against opponent off a win against a division rival are 27-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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11-03-18 | Celtics v. Pacers UNDER 207 | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
Indiana is a defence first team enters this game against Boston with the 3rd ranked points per game allowed D at 102.9ppg, while their offensive output is ranked at 22nd in the league (108.6 ppg) , Their pace is ranked 29 out of 30 teams (96.4). Meanwhile, the Cletics a team becomign well know for their defensive proficiencies, is ranked first in points allowed (99.5 ppg) and first in defensive rating (99.2) and 17th in pace (100.3) and just 28th in offensive output averaging (104.2 ppg). Today I expect two teams that key their defensive abilities o their successes and failures to continue on this course and for this contest to stay on the low side of the Total. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in November games are 34-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 203 ppg. Play UNDER |
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11-03-18 | UTEP v. Rice OVER 44.5 | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
These two teams Rice (1-8) and UTEP ( 0-8) have had dismal seasons, and both look forward to the opportunity to notch a win in this spot. Rice has been without starting QB Shawn Stankavage since Oct 19 , but have started to find a way to move the ball of late , and really didn't look to bad against far superior teams Florida International and North Texas scoring 17 points in each of those games, despite of getting squashed because of porous D, that has allowed an average of 39 ppg this season. My own projections estimate UTEP will eclipse their 18.9 ppg average offensive output here today by a full TD, and their Swiss cheese D that allows an average of 34.2 ppg on the road to allow Rice to also score into the mid 20s, which should at least according to my estimates see this total number easily eclipsed. RICE is 25-12 OVER L/37 versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.75 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average score of 61.5 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (RICE/UTEP) - after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 54-27 OVER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion Tate for bettors on the blind. Play on the OVER |
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11-02-18 | Colorado v. Arizona OVER 56.5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
. The Wildcats defence stood tall last week vs Oregon but in recent meetings between these football programs high scoring games have taken place, with Arizona taking a 45-42 win on the road last season and Colorado scoring 49 points in 2016 in their visit to the desert while allowing 24 points. Both went over the total as has 6 of the L/7 meetings overall. What Im betting on this week is that Arizona's Khalil Tate and company behind a group that put 44 points on the board last week will do offensive damage vs a Colorado team that allowed Oregon State 41 points last week, and for the Buffalos to have no other option than to open things up and respond in kind in what will be a high scoring shoot out in the desert this Friday night. Note: Arizona has rushed for at least 267 yards in each of the last six meetings with Colorado. The Wildcats lead the Pac-12 with 205.33 rushing yards per game this season. Khalil Tate destroyed the Buffs last season, and I won't be surprised by another big outing as he finally looks to be on the mend. HC Sumlin is 13-2 OVER in home games off a home win by 17 points or more in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score of 82.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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11-01-18 | Stars v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 2-1 | Win | 101 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
Star forward Austin Mathews is expected to miss 4 to 6 weeks with a shoulder injury, and was apparent the scoring sensations absence effected the chemistry of the attack, as Toronto’s first full game without Matthews saw the Buds lose 3-1 at home to Calgary Flames on Oct. 29. Toronto produced just 25 shots in that game. Im betting that will continue tonight vs visiting Dallas. Meanwhile, Dallas enters this game on tired legs as this will be their 3rd game in 4 nights, and the will be in no hurry to open things up and instead depend on their transition game . This combination of situations will result in a lower scoring game than the Total line indicates. In 7 home games the Leafs and their opponents have averaged 5 gpg. Dallas in their 4 games vs on the road have seen a combined average of 4.7 gpg scored and they themselves have averaged just 1.7 gpg in those tilts. TORONTO is 5-0 UNDER against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game this season and is 5-0 UNDER against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game this season.TORONTO is 7-1 UNDER against poor defensive teams - opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal this season.TORONTO is 13-4 UNDER in home games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (DALLAS) - tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 5 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season are 60-17 UNDER L/22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-29-18 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44.5 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 84 h 20 m | Show | |
Wow its been a long time since a team was favoured by this much on the road . Actually the Pats were favoured by 13.5 points vs the Jags about 6 seasons ago and that game went under the total by 13 points. . NFL road chalk of a -8 or more points have gone under 18 of the L/19 times this situation has arisen. Buffalo has scored a total of 26 points in their L/3 games, and were shut out in one of them, and seem completely offensively inept. Today against an explosive New England offense I expect the Bills to be extremely methodical in their approach and to try to burn as much clock as possible, thus slowing the Pats attack which will curtail their output in a gem I have pegged to stay on the low side of the Total. Buffalo has gone under 3 straight times at home as a dog of 7 or more points. Buffalo has gone under in 5 straight games overall. NEW ENGLAND is 17-6 L/23 UNDER vs. struggling teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season with he combined average score of 37.7 ppg scored. NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off 1 or more consecutive unders, struggling team - outscored by opponents by 10 or more points/game are 29-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ENGLAND) - off an big road win scoring 31 or more points are 29-6 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-28-18 | Packers v. Rams OVER 56 | 27-29 | Push | 0 | 71 h 47 m | Show | |
The Rams can score against any team in this league at will averaging 35.6 ppg at home , and GB just does not have the type of defense that can handle this type of explosive group as they allow an average of 31 ppg on the road. So Im betting the Rams do a lot of offensive damage here today. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers the Packers QB leads a viable offence that can fire back with some weapons of their own and will not be easy pushovers in what Im betting will be all out offensive shootout. GREEN BAY is 10-1 OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons with he average combined score clicking in at 58.6 ppg and s 6-0 OVER in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with the combined average score coming in at 64.5 ppg. GREEN BAY is 7-0 OVER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking at 61 ppg. Green Bays last game resulted in a high scoring 33-30 conflict vs SF. It must noted that the Cheese machine is 12-0 OVER L/12 off a game as chalk after they scored at least 24 points . NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after allowing 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 28-7 OVER L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play OVER |
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10-28-18 | Bucs v. Bengals OVER 54 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 68 h 40 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay enters into this game as a team that concentrates almost solely on throwing the ball to move the chains because their inability to run it as is obvious by their 30th overall rank via the ground attack. So today against the Bengals you can bet they will be air it out big time again. Meanwhile, Cincinnati gave up 551 yards of offence last week vs KC in a ugly DD loss, and look ripe to taken advantage of again. Note: The Bengals have gone over 7 straight times at home off a double-digit road defeat when they are taking on a team that is averaging at least 375 offensive yards per game like TB. the flip side, the Buccaneers D, is very porous allowing an average of 32.7 ppg and will Im betting getting trashed in return, which sets up well for a combined score that eclipses this Total. TAMPA BAY is 6-0 OVER L/6 in road games in the first half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined score of 54.6 ppg. NFL team against the total (TAMPA BAY) - in a game involving two struggling defensive teams ( 27 PPG or more ), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-11 OVER L/35 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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10-27-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 59.5 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 9 m | Show | |
Let me say it does not matter if Sam Ehlinger plays QB this week or not, for Texas, as he is questionable with a shoulder injury suffered last week. Shane Buechele,will be a fine replacement, and the 6th ranked Longhons Im betting do significant offensive damage this week, vs a a defense that is struggling and has allowed 40 plus points in their L/2 home games. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State despite of all their misgivings are averaging 43.2 ppg in offence at home this season and can score against the best of teams. These teams have gone over in 6 of their L/7 meetings and Im betting this one flys over as well. Oklahoma State is 12-0 OVER at home off a game where they allowed at least 28 points with a combined average of 87.3 ppg going on the board. No tilt saw less than 70 total points scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 26-8 OVER in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 75% or better ) since 1992 with the average combined score clicking in at 66.1 ppg.OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 86.9 ppg. Play OVER |
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10-27-18 | Florida International v. Western Kentucky UNDER 55 | 38-17 | Push | 0 | 107 h 55 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky avenging just 20.1 ppg in offence this season does not have the guns to compete with Florida International in a run and gun type affair, and will come into this game preparing to play a methodical conservative game. Add to that the Hilltoppers will be in a huge letdown situation that could see them start slowly after blowing a late lead last week to Old Dominion, and losing thanks to some bizarre circumstances that include penalties and failed FG attempts. Meanwhile, on the flip side FINT is a Doctor Jekyll and Hyde type of team averaging just 22.5 ppg on offence on the road this season as compared to their overall 35.9 ppg output . The Panthers have a history of playing a more conservative type of game as visitors that has resulted in a lot of lower scoring tilts. With that said, you have what I'm betting will be the makings for a low scoring sleeper. Note: FINT has gone UNDER 10 straight times as a road favourite with no combined score eclipsing the 55 point plateau with the average combined score clicking in a 43.8 ppg. FLA INTERNATIONAL is 7-0 UNDER L/7 after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better. CFB Home teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (W KENTUCKY) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 28-6 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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10-23-18 | Dodgers v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | 4-8 | Win | 107 | 24 h 8 m | Show | |
Clayton Kershaw (9-5, 2.73 ERA) and Boston’s Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) start Game 1 No doubt that these are two top quality pitcher, but this season both pitchers went over the total more often then under. Also the Dodgers Kershaw owns a career postseason ERA is 4.09. Kershaw top pitch the fastball has seen batters register a .292 BA during his current campaign , showing us he is not the same pitcher he once was. Thats not a good omen for him vs one of MLBs best fast ball hitting teams. KERSHAW is 9-2 OVER after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.7 rpg scored. Meanwhile, Sale the BoSox starter has not been in top form for a while now, and allowed 2 runs in 4 innings of baseball his last time out vs Houston and is dealing with s stomach ailment of some type that might be effecting him. The Dodgers are no pushovers and they can light up the best of hurlers. SALE is 8-0 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average score of 10.4 rpg going on the board. MLB (LA DODGERS) - poor NL hitting team (AVG .250 or less) against a top level AL starting pitcher (ERA 3.60, or less WHIP 1.300 or more ), with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 10 games are 45-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the OVER |
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10-22-18 | Hornets v. Raptors UNDER 226 | 106-127 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
The NBA season started with a lot off fast paced games as the exuberance of a new season on fresh legs made for for some high scoring affairs. Now with a few games under them, I expect the league as a whole to start to centre some thought on playing a more energy saving type of hoops. Focusing on these two teams the Charlotte Hornets and the Toronto Raptors in particular it must be noted that they have now played 3 games in less in 5 days so running and gunning at full tilt for long stretches may not be sensible option tonight if the coaches of these teams hope to keep their troops fresh during what can be a gruelling extended schedule. Also knowing the Raptors current mind set about playing a more disciplined defensive style this season behind the leagues top two way forward Kawhi Leonard, it makes a lot of sense that they will be out to slow down a Hornets team that looks to be in an offensive groove at the moment, with a more methodical approach. My own projections for this game suggest a maximum combined total of 220 points being scored, and with a 6 point edge according to my own numbers I feel like we have enough value to take the under here. Also from an extensive data base of league wide trends no average combined total from a 2000 games sample size went above my 220 point projections. While new data can change in the flash of an eye and nothing is a sure bet, I still feel we have an edge on this slightly bloated Total. Its all about slight edges in our battle with the books and their astute line making abilities. From the six combined games these teams have played only one has seen more than 225 points scored, and that was the Raptors 117-113 win vs Washington. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (TORONTO) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 7+ PPG, after allowing 105 points or more are 24-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with a combined average of 211.5 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-21-18 | Browns v. Bucs UNDER 50.5 | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 67 h 7 m | Show | |
Tampa Bays defence has been purged in back to back games, giving up a total of 80 points ,but the Browns are not the type of team that can take advantage of their wobbly defence. The Browns have scored 18 points or less in 3 of their 6 games, and have averaged 13 ppg in their L/2 trips to the gridiron. On the other side of the ball the Browns are a physical group that are hard to play against and the Bucs Im betting have a hard time doing dome offensive damage here in this spot. I know the Buccaneers have gone over in 5 straight but because of this the total of this tilt is overinflated. It must be noted that teams like the Bucs that have allowed at least 80 combined points their last two games are a long term 28-64-1 UNDER dating back to the 2010 season with the average combined score clicking in 42.5 ppg. Cleveland was blasted last Tim out by the Chargers,(38-14) but are 12-3 L/15 UNDER off a home blowout loss by 21 points or more. Cleveland is 4-13 UNDER vs NFC South. The L/4 meetings in this series have seen a combined 29.3 ppg scored on average. NFL Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 30 points or more in 2 straight games are 7-28 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins UNDER 47 | 32-21 | Loss | -114 | 66 h 33 m | Show | |
Osweiler, who completed 28 of 44 passes for 380 yards is the expected starter here again this week for the Dolphins. Don't be fooled by the big numbers because there was huge after the catch numbers posted and that kind of performance and yards activity is truly odd. The Fins surprised the Bears and took a 31-28 win, also thanks to turnovers something this Dolphins teams not really built for over the long haul and Im betting they will fall back down to earth in their followup against the Lions this week. Meanwhile, the Lions are well rested off a bye week and many might expect them to fly out of the gate here, but in the past they have been more methodical and conservative in their road games, and are 0-5 UNDER L/5 as a road favorite when the total is more than 43. the Lions are also 0-5 UNDER L/5 after a bye. The Lions also take on a a Dolphins defense that has been effective in the red zone and has stopped six of 11 third- or fourth-and-1 runs, something the Lions have excelled at this season.If these results continue to trend this way we have a high probability of wiping a score off the board , which in turn will help keep this total combined score on the low side of the number. NFL Home teams against the total (MIAMI) - after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better are 33-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-21-18 | Vikings v. Jets OVER 45.5 | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 14 m | Show | |
Minnesota's QB Cousins is ranked fifth in the league in passing, and has 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions this season. His 71.2 completion percentage is third in the league and he's 10th in passer rating at 102.7. I'm betting he and his Vikings do some extensive damage today vs a NY Jets Defence, that allowed 428 yards off offence in a 42-34 loss to the Colts last week. Meanwhile, the Jets behind the capable arm of former USC QB Darnold and a two pronged running attack of running backs Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell, who are helping the Jets churn out an average of 130.5 yards rushing will respond in kind and not be easily slowed down. With that said, I expect this total to be eclipsed. The Vikings are 7-0-1 OVER off a game as a favorite in which they threw at least 10 fewer passes than their season-to-date average which was the case in a 27-17 win vs Arizona last week. NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (MINNESOTA) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 51-19 OVER L/35 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-20-18 | Wake Forest v. Florida State UNDER 59 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 32 h 7 m | Show | |
Wake Forest after an embarrassing loss to Clemson before their bye week, allowed 63 points and scored just 3 points in a ugly loss. Since that game a rallying call to tighten up their D, has been key to any conversations involving the Deacons, and today I expect they enter this tilt with an conservative mindset. Meanwhile,Florida State is always methodical in their approach to games, and will make sure this game is played on their terms. Look for both teams to push the ball a lot on the ground today via their rush games, and for the clock to get milked like a Hershey cow.Only one of Seminoles games has eclipsed this total this season, and Im betting the combined score will not breach this Total. Note: Wake Forest has not had a scoring TD since 2006 here in the land of the Seminoles. FSU Taggart is 18-7 UNDER vs. bad defensive teams who give up 31 or more points/game in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average score in those tilts ringing in at 52.5 ppg. FLORIDA ST L/11 against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 44 ppg go on the board. WAKE FOREST L/22 in road games after a bye week have seen a combined average of 54.4 ppg go on the board. CFB Road teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 (WAKE FOREST) - with a poor defense - allowing 400 or more total yards/game, after allowing 525 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games are 64-28 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-20-18 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 33 m | Show | |
Philadelphia can score but their defence is horrendous, and Im betting that trend continues here this afternoon against the NJ Devils. Philadelphia (3-4) has allowed 11 goals in its last two games and the Devils are more than capable of burying some goals here today. It must be noted that NEW JERSEY is 32-0 OVER when both teams score 3 or more goals over the last 2 seasons and thats what Im projecting them do here this afternoon.PHILADELPHIA is 35-0 OVER when both teams score 3 or more goals over the last 2 seasons.Philadelphia has given up 31 goals in its first seven games. PHILADELPHIA is 23-9 OVER vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. with a combined average of 6.9 gpg. Play on the OVER |
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10-20-18 | Northwestern v. Rutgers OVER 48.5 | 18-15 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
Northwestern in their last three games away from home having to lay nine points or more to Big Ten opposition all-time, have scored 59, 45, and 42 points respectively and I'm expecting another high output today vs a Rutgers defense that has allowed two opponents to breach the 50 point plateau this season. Meanwhile, Im betting that Rutgers on their own home field are good for a couple of scores in a game I have pegged to go OVER the total. NORTHWESTERN is 7-0 OVER in road games over the last 2 seasons with a combined 54.7 ppg scored. CFB teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (NORTHWESTERN) - terrible rushing team - averaging 2.75 or less rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game are 28-5 OVER L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-19-18 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 231 | 129-149 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Looking at last years matchups in this series , The Kings beat the Pelicans, 116-109 in overtime and 114-101, in New Orleans while the Pelicans prevailed in both games in Sacramento, 114-106 and 114-101. Im expecting a similar type combed score here tonight. I know both teams put up a boatload full of points in wide open tilts last time out, but a more muted effort after exerting that much energy and converting at such a high level is a above average probability occurrence in this spot. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win by 10 points or more, team that had a winning record last season are 27-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking at 204 ppg. Also From an extensive data base of more than 2000 games played in the invoicing the Pelicans and other NBA teams the average of tonights score in similar multiple trends situations is in range between 217 and 224 ppg. So despite of their being no obvious guarantees their still is evidence of this number being slightly bloated thus giving us value. Play UNDER |
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10-18-18 | Red Sox v. Astros OVER 7.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
The Red Sox in this NLCS game will go left-hander David Price (0-1, 9.95 ERA over two starts this postseason) . Price r has looked nasty in the post season and in 11 career play off starts is (0-9, 6.16 ERA) and in Game 2 allowed four runs on five hits and four walks over 4 2/3 innings. Im betting the Astros get after him today and unleash some damage on him and his incoming bullpen. His opponent from the Astrosi n Game 1, Verlander limited the Red Sox to two runs on two hits. But he issued four walks and is is susceptible to being reached by a Bosox team that spanked right handers for a.271 BA this season and 5.5 rpg on average. Five of the L/6meetings here in Houston have gone over and Im betting on this number being eclipsed this evening. Play on the OVER |
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10-17-18 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
The Islanders under new HC Barry Trotz now play a defence style style of hockey and I expect thats what we will see from them tonight here in their first game of a West Coast road trip. The Isles have averaged 2.8 gpg this season in offence, and have allowed 2.4 gpg on D, and have already recorded 1 shutout behind tonights expected starting goalie Lehner. The Ducks a team with a boatload full of injures are averaging just 2.7 goals per game but allowing just 2.2 gpg. With leading scorer Jakob Silfverberg experiencing a nagging injury, and less than 100% the Ducks Im betting will continue their defensive mind set behind a top tier goalie Gibson who owns a a 2.07 GAA and .944 save percentage this season. Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Anaheim. Play UNDER |
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10-17-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Miley the starter tonight for the Brewers was in top form in Game 2 of the series Saturday in Milwaukee, recording 6 +scoreless innings and Im betting on more top tier work here today vs a Dodgers batting order that he feels comfortable facing. Miley has now had two scoreless appearances in this season play offs. Meanwhile, former Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw the Dodgers starter, after a down effort last time out, will be primed to bounce back here today. This is the kind of guy that does his best work when he feels he has something to prove, and after negative media reports about his demise, he definitely has a chip on his shoulder entering this fray. Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Los Angeles.Under is 6-2-1 in Kershaws last 9 starts vs. Brewers. Adding to the drama is that Game 5 will be played less than 15 hours after the ending to Game 4, which lasted 5 hours, 15 minutes and was the second-longest NLCS game by time after Game 5 in 1999 between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves went 5:46. both sides will exhibit tiredness which will buoy what the lines makers are expecting, and that is a low scoring game. Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games.Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 8-1 in Brewers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 on grass.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 overall.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 games following a loss.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 playoff games.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 vs. National League West.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 4-1-1 in Brewers last 6 playoff road games. Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 League Championship road games.Under is 5-2 in Brewers last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 41-19 in Brewers last 60 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Mileys last 7 road starts. Under is 6-0 in Dodgers last 6 playoff home games.Under is 4-0-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games.Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 League Championship home games. Under is 21-5-1 in Dodgers last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 20-5-1 in Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. National League Central.Under is 7-2-1 in Dodgers last 10 League Championship games.Under is 7-2-1 in Dodgers last 10 playoff games.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 on grass.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 3-1-1 in Dodgers last 5 overall.Under is 23-9-3 in Dodgers last 35 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last 8 Wednesday games. |
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10-16-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1 The Dodgers had their chances Monday, despite of losing 4-0 ,as they went just 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Thats the kind stink that usually stays on a team for while, and Im betting that funk continues tonight against the Brewers pitching that held the Dodgers to just 3 hits in the first 8 innings and team that has recorded 6 shutout in this years play offs so far. Meanwhile, the Dodgers pitching remains strong and I expect Hill to throw darts here today and keep the Brewers batting order under control I ga em that Im betting fails to eclipse the total. Note Hill allowed two earned runs in 12 innings in two starts vs the Brew Crew this season. . Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 playoff home games.Under is 3-0-1 in Dodgers last 4 home games.Over is 5-0-2 in Dodgers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 20-5-1 in Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 19-6-1 in Dodgers last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 6-2-1 in Dodgers last 9 playoff games.Under is 13-5-1 in Dodgers last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Over is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 22-9-3 in Dodgers last 34 home games vs. a left-handed starter.Under is 18-8-2 in Dodgers last 28 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games.Under is 4-0 in Brewers last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 on grass.Under is 6-1 in Brewers last 7 overall.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 games following a win.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 playoff games.Under is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 vs. National League West.Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 playoff road games. Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Los Angeles. Play UNDER |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 209 | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
The public with a little bit of irrational exuberance has hit this game hard to go over on the opening Total. However, I myself am expecting a more constrained defensive effort from both teams as the game progresses despite of this being the opening game of the season on prime time tv. Both teams were ranked top 5 in overall efficiency and overall defensive stats last season, and both were proficient in limiting FG to under 50%. Looking at the Boston Celtics they are now introducing two new cogs into their lineup and it may slow them to an extent as Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward come back from injuries. Im betting both despite of being big time scorers take time to acclimated to the speed of the game after being off for extended periods of time and it will take time before they become more cohesive and jell with their team-mates. Add to that the Sixers usually play at a much faster pace, so the Celtics who had a 102.9 defensive rating at home last season, will primed to slow these guys down as much as possible, in order to throw them out of rhythm and control the pace to their liking. Last years play off experience Im betting pays off here this evening. BOSTON L/62 games when the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 201.3 ppg go on the board. These teams went under in 3 of 4 meetings last season. The one that did go over was on neutral court in London England. Play UNDER |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 46.5 | 30-33 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The Packers are a injury riddled group right now and Aaron Rodgers looks less than 100% healthy ,but their defence is holding up well and have held their last two opponents to season low outputs.I expect they will continue to stand tall vs a Niners team with a uncertain QB situation thanks to Jimmy G being out with an injury and top RB (Jerick McKinnon) out, and it must also be noted that eight offensive players were on the sideline during Thursday's practice due to injuries. Also an interesting trends run here indicates GB could be in a letdown situation as they have gone under 8 straight times after playing long time rivals Detroit who they faced last week. Meanwhile, SF despite of losing to Arizona thanks to 5 turnovers last week held the Arizona Cards to 220 yards of Total offence. The 49ers D, has not always looked cohesive this season, but considering how banged up the Packers are they have a viable opportunity to make them selves look like respectable stoppers this Monday night. Look for two banged up offences to play fairly conservatively here this evening, and for this combined total to stay on the low side of the number. NFL team against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after allowing 25 points or more in 4 straight games are 26-3 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. The average posted total was 46 and the average combined score clicked in at 38.4 ppg. Play UNDER |
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10-15-18 | Wild v. Predators UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
Two top tier goalies go head to head Monday night in Nashville, as Pekka Rinne and the Predators host Devan Dubnyk and the Minnesota Wild in a Central Division battle. The Wild Goalie Dubnyk owns. a 2.64 GAA and .934 save percentage this season. He recorded a a 1.96 GAA and .934 save percentage against the Predators last season. The Preds starting goalie Rinne has registered a stingy 1.67 GAA and .946 save percentage this season and recorded 2.98 GAA and .903 save percentage against Minnesota last season. Considering the goalie matchup and we all ready have a strong case for a lower scoring game, but current circumstances suggest that Minnesota will play a conservative transistional style of hockey tonight against a explosive opponent playing on their own home ice, thus making the under a viable betting opportunity. Under is 4-0 in Wild last 4 road games.Under is 6-1 in Wild last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Wild last 5 vs. Western Conference Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Nashville. Play on the UNDER |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59 | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 83 h 24 m | Show | |
The KC Chiefs and their young gunslinger QB Patrick Mahomes goes head to head with future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady this Sunday night in a prime time affair with a justifiably high total attached to it. Both teams can put points up in bunches and both have shown a reluctance or inability to play consistent defence. Last year KC came into New England and won a 42-27 battle, and if the Pats get up here you know they won't take the pedal of the metal , knowing how explosive the Chiefs can be, and also wanting to inflict some pain on their opponent in revenge mode. KC will respond in kind . Let the fireworks begin. OVER. New England has averaged 34,3 ppg at home this season. KC's offence has averaged 35.7 ppg on the road and the D has give up 29.3 ppg. NFL games with an exceptionally high Totals line of 58 or more points have gone 7-0-1 O/U since since the 2000 campaign . The highest total ever registered was 60 points back in 2004 where KC and Oakland put 61 points on the board eclipsing the 60 point totals line. Play on the OVER |
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10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 41 | 21-0 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 9 m | Show | |
The Titans style of play is a old school approach to the game and methodical in nature. They like to smash and crash their way to the promised land , while the Ravens like to run and gun and utilize their array of offensive weapons. Here today, Im betting the Titans will have no choice to open up against a team that can pile points upon a hurry. Both teams took part in low scoring affairs last week and will be itching to see their offences flow this week. Baltimore lost to Cleveland 12-9 and are 8-1 OVER after they score 10 points or less.TENNESSEE is 21-6 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points since 1992 which happened against Buffalo in a 13-12 loss last week and 7-1 OVER L/8 after the scored 13 or less points The L/3 games in this series have gone over with a combined average of 45 points per game going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (TENNESSEE) - slow starting offensive team - scoring 7 or less PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 26-4 OVER L/10 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams against the total (BALTIMORE) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 30-9 OVER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-14-18 | Panthers v. Redskins OVER 44.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -107 | 68 h 21 m | Show | |
The Redskins enter this game on short rest after their defence was exposed on Monday night vs the New Orleans Saints as they lost 43-19. Meanwhile, the Panthers D, did not look much better in a 33-31 win vs the NY Giants last week and more importantly were out gained 432 to 350 yards. It must be noted that Washington is 12-0 OVER on a natural surface vs a non-divisional opponent that allowed more points and more than 345 yards of offense in their last game. The Panthers are 19-0 OVER since 1998 as a dog when the total is over 34 coming off a game that went over the total by at least 14 points. The Panthers feature the league's top-ranked ground game, averaging 154.0 yards per game which is a good omen for us cashing a OVER ticket as the Redskins are 15-0 OVER vs a team that is averaging at least 28.5 rushes per game. CAROLINA is 17-3 OVER L/20 in road games after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored with a combined average of 51.5 ppg scored.CAROLINA is 7-0 OVER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 61.5 ppg. WASHINGTON is 7-0 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 56 ppg. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER vs. dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 57.2 ppg scored. WASHINGTON is 13-4 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 49 ppg scored. NFL games are 18-0 OVER since the start of last season in non-divisional games that are lined within three of pickem between teams with the same winning percentage, as long as the host team is not on a five-plus game winning or losing streak. NFLRoad teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - with a turnover margin of +1 /game or better on the season, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 51-19 OVER L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |
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10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings UNDER 43 | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 30 m | Show | |
Arizona has not played aggressively this season, and have actually been quite methodical in their approach and now tonight against a superior side in an away game I expect for the Cards to very conservative again . I know some might think that Arizona will be suddenly aggressive aftertaste weeks win, but they had only 220 total yards in the game and picked up just 10 first downs in the victory, and will once again be in that frame of mind here. The Cardinals are 0-8 UNDER on the road coming off a win where they gained no more than 18 first downs Minnesota after big revenge win vs the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles last week 23-21 and will be a in letdown scenario this week and could be just going through the motions vs a side that Im sure their not the inspired to play against. Minnesota is 1-9 UNDER as a home favourite of 8 points or more and have gone UNDER 9 straight times as a home favorite of more than a TD coming off a tilt where they covered. MINNESOTA is 6-0 UNDER L/ 6 in home games off a road win over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 33.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-13-18 | Iowa v. Indiana OVER 52.5 | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 14 m | Show | |
My projections estimate 55 or more points will go on the board this week, thus giving us value on this Totals number. This may not seem a lot of room for the average bettor but it is important to understand that from a long term perspective advantage betting is your best way to consistently beat the books over the long haul. INDIANA is 16-5 OVER in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 62% or better since 1992 with a combined average 56.2 ppg going on the score board.INDIANA in its L/11 tilts against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 54.2 ppg get scored. Indiana is 11-0-1 OU off a game as a road dog that went over the total by more than seven points with a combined average of 73.5 ppg scored which was the case vs Ohio State last week. Iowa in their L/25 road games as favorite of 7 points or less have seen a combined average of 54.8 ppg scored.INDIANA is 41-17 OVER L/57 as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 point with a combined average of 58.2 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers UNDER 7.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -118 | 23 h 20 m | Show | |
NL Championship Series - Best of 7 - Game 1 Milwaukee pitching is as hot as tamale sauce and that was on full display in their last series with the Rockies, with Colorado scoring in only one inning over the course of the three games. Overall dating back 5 games opponents have scored a total 3 runs on the Brewers and they have 3 shutouts. The Dodgers will now face a group of hurlers that could slow them down a lot. As a matter of fact there are a number of Dodgers already in hitting slumps , as Max Muncy, Manny Machado, and Yasmani Grandal are batting under .200 . Truth is the Dodgers got by the Braves in their last series thanks to some top tier pitching and clutch long balls, but other than that they looked muted in the batting box. It must also be noted that LA is hitting a collective .059 vs key Brewers reliever Hader. Yes, there are some strong hitters in the Milwaukee lineup but dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw should be able to deal with a majority of these guys and even if Yelich keeps rolling, Im not betting on extensive damage , which has me looking at this game going under the set total. Under is 5-0-1 in Kershaws last 6 road starts vs. Brewers.Under is 5-0 in Brewers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Play UNDER |
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10-11-18 | Canucks v. Lightning OVER 6 | 4-1 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Canucks head coach Travis Green has been moving the lines around to try to find the right mix of offense -- which has not been a problem in the early going as the Canucks are showing a lot of explosiveness-- however the D is a problem allowing 14 goals in the opening three games. Meanwhile, TB is off a 2-1 defensive style win, and on 3 days rest will be ready to let loose here with a super fast and cohesive offensive lineup, and put a bunch of goals on the board vs a side that will have issues dealing with their attack. Over is 6-0 in Canucks last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 6-1 in Canucks last 7 overall.Over is 4-1 in Canucks last 5 vs. Atlantic.Over is 8-1-2 in Lightning last 11 Thursday games.Under is 4-1-2 in Lightning last 7 home games. Over is 15-6 in Lightning last 21 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 5-2 in Lightning last 7 vs. Pacific.Over is 17-5-3 in the last 25 meetings.Over is 8-3-2 in the last 13 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play OVER |
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10-11-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas State OVER 49 | 15-13 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
Georgia Southern new HC Chad Lunsford, has successfully returned this football program to a power run game that generates a lot of yards and points behind a ground game averaging 275 RYPG (No. 6 in the nation) averaging more than 30 points per game. They had one low output of 7 points against Clemson on the road, which can be excused. Last time out they scored 48 points as they are looking more cohesive with their attack as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Texas State has allowed 2 of their L/3 opponents to to light them up for 40+ points, and showed extreme weakness stopping their opponents ground attack allowing 327 rush yards last week vs UL Lafayette. Im betting Georgia Southern attacks this perceived weakness with what they do best and for Texas State to have more problems vs this visiting colossal ground game, and I project the Eagles scoring in the mid to high 30s at least, with Texas State slightly improved offence projected to score 14-19 point range which coincides with the ats line. If my projected calculations are correct , which I'm betting they are, we have a viable opportunity here to cash an OVER ticket. GA SOUTHERN in their L/29 games when they score 28 or more points since 1992 have seen a combined average score of 67 ppg go on the scoreboard .Texas st L/30 off a loss against a conference rival have seen a combined average of 53.4 ppg scored. Play on the OVER |
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10-11-18 | Maple Leafs v. Red Wings OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
The Leafs are an explosive offensive team and have put 7 goals on the board in their L/2 games, with their only issue remaining on defence as is evident by having allowed 5,6,4 goals in their L/3 tilts. Meanwhile, the Wings are a young team in a rebuilding mode, and will have difficulties hanging with the Buds. It won't matter who starts for the Leafs as Garret Sparks is 1-0-0 with a 6.00 GAA and .806 save percentage and Anderson owns just .892 SV %. and could easily allow the Motown crew a few goals. The way Toronto plays the Wings will have no choice to open up which will result in a higher scoring game than the line indicates. Considering these above mentioned situations and facts and over bet here looks like a viable option. Over is 3-0-1 in Maple Leafs last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-0 in Maple Leafs last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 13-3-1 in Maple Leafs last 17 road games. Over is 21-8-2 in Maple Leafs last 31 overall.Over is 18-7-2 in Maple Leafs last 27 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 17-7-2 in Maple Leafs last 26 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 7-3-2 in Maple Leafs last 12 vs. Atlantic.Over is 15-7-1 in Maple Leafs last 23 games following a win. Over is 4-0 in Red Wings last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 7-1-1 in Red Wings last 9 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Over is 5-1 in Red Wings last 6 vs. Atlantic.Over is 4-1 in Red Wings last 5 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.Over is 7-2 in Red Wings last 9 vs. Eastern Conference. Play OVER |
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10-09-18 | Maple Leafs v. Stars OVER 6 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
The Toronto Maple Leafs are loaded with offensive talent but their defence still looks wobbly. There is not doubt that this team has the potential to lead the lead in scoring this year. To beat the Leafs you have to score in bunches. So the Dallas Stars whether they want to or not will have to open up or be blown off the ice. With that said, Im betting on a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses the total. Over is 8-0-1 in Maple Leafs last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 10-1 in Maple Leafs last 11 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.Over is 6-1 in Maple Leafs last 7 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Maple Leafs last 7 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation.Over is 5-1 in Maple Leafs last 6 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.Over is 12-3-1 in Maple Leafs last 16 road games. Over is 16-5-1 in Maple Leafs last 22 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 16-5-1 in Maple Leafs last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 20-8-2 in Maple Leafs last 30 overall. Over is 3-1-1 in Stars last 5 overall.Over is 9-3-2 in Stars last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 19-7-2 in Stars last 28 games following a win.Over is 32-15-4 in Stars last 51 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Play OVER |
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10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 50.5 | 33-31 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 6 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are being made big home dogs, here to an explosive Rams football team. With that said, I expect the Seahawks to take a conservative approach to this game, and try to eat up as much clock as possible via a slow methodical approach to their dangerous opponents which should result in a lower scoring tilt than the lines makers expect. It must be noted that over the last 5 years: All NFL road favorites of 7 or more points when the Total is 43 points or more are 4-30-2 UNDER.I know the Rams own a big time offence, that has been putting points up in bunches this season but, NFL same-DIVISION chalk of 15 or less points who scored 33 or more points in each of their last four games have gone under 12 straight times. Also TD-plus home pups like Seattle with normal rest are 0-29 UNDER when they are off a road game in where they scored fewer than 23 points and had at least 21:20 of possession time, as long as their opponent is averaging less than 480 yards of offense per game like the Rams are. SEATTLE is 12-3 UNDER against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.1 ppg scored. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LA RAMS) - versus division opponents, off a home win are 78-35 UNDER 35 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play UNDER |
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 53.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 78 h 21 m | Show | |
I'm betting this game has inflated Total attached to it. I know there was a lot of scoring last weeks games, but this is definitely an over reaction by the lines makers according to my head to head stats . The Chargers are 0-12-1 OU since 2012 at home coming off a game where Philip Rivers threw at least three touchdown passes. Which happened in a 29-27 win vs the 49ers last week. The Raiders have gone UNDER 9 straight L9 division road games with a combined average of (34.67) scored. OAKLAND is 7-0 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.4 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS is 8-1 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 37.3 ppg scored. Divisional underdogs up to +7 points like the raiders on normal rest when they are coming off an OT victory in a tilt where they were favored. are 4-19-1 UNDER. NFL team against the total (OAKLAND) - after going over the total by more than 35 points in their previous game, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 27-2 UNDER L/35 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-07-18 | Broncos v. Jets OVER 42 | 16-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
I like this game to go over the total despite of the perceived ineptness of both these offences. This over call in based on some key projections I have made . One of my projections estimates that Denver will average 100-125 yards rushing, which is a good omen , as the Broncos in their L/6 when they get to these numbers have seen a combined average of 45.3 ppg scored. Raiders are 11-3 OVER vs AFC East. These teams have gone over in the 5 of the L/6 meetings here in with a combined average of (46.2) ppg going on the board. HC Joseph L/7 after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse as the coach of DENVER has seen a combined score of 50.3 ppg scored NFL Road teams against the total (DENVER) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season are 37-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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10-06-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
The weather is supposed to pretty nice here tonight in Boston with a light breeze at Fenway. This sets up for a perfect environment for these two powerful offences to tee off and put some big digits on the board. David Price the BoSox hurler today is 0-8 in nine career postseason starts along with a bloated 5.54 ERA and has garnered a ugly 0 -3 record with a nasty looking 10.34 ERA in four starts against the Yankees this season. Meanwhile, Tanaka the Yankees starter has struggled over his final two regular-season starts, giving up eight earned runs in eight innings (9.00 ERA). In four starts against the Red Sox during the regular season, he had a 7.58 ERA..Over is 8-2-1 in Tanakas last 11 starts vs. American League East. I like the OVER odds the books are offering and suggest we take it. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.Over is 3-0-1 in Prices last 4 starts vs. Yankees.Over is 3-0-1 in Tanakas last 4 starts vs. Red Sox. Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 overall.Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 road games.Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 on grass.Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 6-0 in Yankees last 6 vs. American League East.Over is 7-0 in Yankees last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 during game 2 of a series. Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 5-0 in Red Sox last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-0-2 in Red Sox last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 5-0-2 in Red Sox last 7 home games.Over is 7-0-1 in Red Sox last 8 vs. American League East.Over is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 during game 2 of a series.Over is 9-1-1 in Red Sox last 11 overall.Over is 9-1-1 in Red Sox last 11 on grass.Over is 8-1-2 in Red Sox last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Play OVER |
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10-06-18 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State OVER 54 | 48-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show | |
Iowa State has not done a lot of scoring this season, but against this kind of team they will have to open, up as Im expecting the Cowboys to really do some damage today against a decent defence. Oklahoma State has already proven they can score against the best of defences, putting 44 points up against Boise State. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State's D, is not of the grade 1 variety, and I look for Iowa State to do enough damage to get this game into over territory in a score similar to the 37-27 (64 pts) loss they suffered to Oklahoma back on Sept 15. OKLAHOMA ST is 7-0 OVER in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 81.8 ppg scored.OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 OVER in home games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 76.9 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 33-8 OVER in home games after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game since 1992 2ith a combined average of 72.6 ppg scored. Oklahoma State is 13-0-1 OVER at home coming off a game where they gained at least 24 first downs. Play OVER |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida UNDER 43.5 | 19-27 | Loss | -108 | 47 h 47 m | Show | |
These teams took part in a 17-16 snoozefest last season with the Tigers winning , and Im expecting another low scoring sleeper this time round in the swamp. The year before that the Florida won 16-10. DEFENCE, DEFENCE and more DEFENCE. |
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10-05-18 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
These teams have a history of playing very hard fought physical gruelling low scoring defensive play off style affairs, even during the regular season. Yes, these teams have plenty of offensive firepower but Im still expecting a lower scoring tilt. San Jose started their season allowing 5 goals in just 14 shots and in a loss to Anaheim, and Im betting their goaltending and D, will be even more diligent here, as they look for redemption. This will also be the Kings first game of their year so getting into cohesive high gear might take some time even with former 50 goal scorer Illya Kovolchuk in the lineup. These teams have only gone over 1 time in their L/13 meetings and another low scoring tilt is on tonights agenda. SJ goalies Jones was 3-1-0 with a 1.69 GAA and .950 SVP including a shutout. Jones in 14 career games vs LA owns a 2.06 GAA and .931 save percentage. The Kings' Jonathan Quick was 1-2-0 with a 1.70 GAA and .944 save percentage against the Sharks last season. In 31 career games vs the Sharks he has garnered a 2.52 GAA and .910 save percentage. Play on the UNDER |
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10-05-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Marshall OVER 49.5 | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
I waited on this Total to make a move downward and it did, and now Im suggesting we take an over stance, as both teams boast to strong QBs who can air it out in a big way. I know these two teams find themselves in the bottom 15 of the FBS in first downs gained on offense but this trend Im betting irons itself out in a hurry, most probably starting tonight. Both sides have had problems running the ball, and I expect both to look downfield quite a bit tonight and a game I have pegged to go over the total . Both are off big wins , with Middle Tennessee State taking out Flordia Atlantic25-24 and Marshall defeating Western Kentucky 20-17 . Both will now be primed to keep their engines revving and a lot of energy should be on tonights agenda. Note: Middle Tennesses offensive road numbers and overall offensive averages have been tainted by playing super power Georgia and a decent SEC side Vanderbilt. In their game against lower tier Tenn Martin they put 61 points on the board. Holliday is 6-0 OVER after a win by 3 or less points as the coach of MARSHALL with a combined average of 84 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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10-05-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 6.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
Houston’s Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) has allowed one run or fewer in four of his past five outings.In his postseason starts his ERA was 2.21 last season. Verlander also loves to pitch during the day where his career ERA is 3.15 as compared to 3.53 at night time ERA. Cleveland batters are slugging only .357 against him and Im betting they have a heck of a time getting across the plate today. Meanwhile. Cleveland starter Kluber owns a stellar (20-7, 2.89 ERA) and has him in the hunt for a third career AL Cy Young Award, Kluber will take the ball for the Tribe in the opener against Houston. The ace is 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA in eight career playoff starts but that ERA rose because of having a bad post season last year, the season before that he garnered one run or less in 4 of his 6 starts. Only three Astros batters are batting above .250 against hime. Houston is slumping at the worst possible time and have manufactured just 12 runs in its last five games. Because of a lack of hitting and quality pitching the Astros have seen 7 straight games stay under and Im betting on another miserly output here in a tilt Im betting stays under the total. CLEVELAND is 16-4 UNDER in October games over the last 3 seasons. with combined average of 6 rpg.HOUSTON is 8-0 UNDER in home games revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 4.8 rpg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-04-18 | Braves v. Dodgers OVER 7 | 0-6 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 50 m | Show | |
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R) vs. HYUN-JIN RYU (L) Both these pitchers have been decent this season, but Foltynewicz has struggled a bit of late and garnered a fairly hefty 4.76 ERA in his L/3 starts. When the Braves hurler pitched here back in late July 9 totals runs were scored in a Braves victory. Actually all 3 games in that series eclipsed the number, and Im betting on more of same here today. The home plate umpire , Adrian Johnson, has seen a lot of over bets cash, as he went 20-8-2 OVER this season. Braves starter FOLTYNEWICZ I in his L/6 starts in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) has seen a combined average of 10.1 rpg scored. ATLANTA is 15-2 OVER in road games vs. NL teams allowing 4.0 or less runs/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.2 rpg scored. ATLANTA is 16-4 OVER in road games in the division series since 1997 with a combined average of 9.6 rpg scored. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 or less (LA DODGERS) - with an on base percentage of .393 or better over their last 3 games, starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest are 57-22 OVER L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (ATLANTA) - ice cold hitting team - batting .225 or worse over their last 15 games against opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last 10 games are 39-19 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. Play OVER |