Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-13-22 | Rennes v. Olympique Lyonnais OVER 2.5 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Lyon and Stade Rennes at 12:05 pm et on Sunday. Lyon is fresh off a stunning 1-0 'away' win over Porto in Europa League action earlier this week. It had to hang on for that critical victory as it was peppered throughout the match but ultimately escaped with a clean sheet. I'm not convinced it will be so fortunate to keep Stade Rennes off the scoreboard on Sunday. Note that Rennes took the most recent meeting between these two sides by a 4-1 score. I certainly expect a revenge-minded Lyon squad to put forth a much better effort here, likely improving on that one-goal performance. But can it keep the Rennes offense at bay? The visitors have put up an impressive 10 goals across their last three Ligue 1 matches, most recently kept silent back on February 11th against mighty PSG. We've seen a couple of interesting trends in this particular series with Rennes going three consecutive matches against Lyon without posting a clean sheet but also managing to be 'first to score' in four of the last five meetings. I'm anticipating plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton OVER 142.5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Yale and Princeton at 12 noon et on Sunday. I think the betting markets are a little spooked when it comes to the total here after both of these teams produced 'under' results in yesterday's Ivy League semi-final matchups. We're dealing with a considerably lower posted total that we saw in the two regular season meetings, keeping in mind both of those games got into the 150's. Yale didn't need to force the issue yesterday as Penn simply wasn't hitting its shots, making good on just 23-of-58 of its field goal attempts. The Bulldogs have generally been giving up a fairly consistent number of buckets though, yielding 26+ made field goals in five straight games prior to yesterday's contest. That's with a relatively slow pace. Here, we can anticipate Princeton pushing the pace. The Tigers have certainly been 'filling it up' lately, and really all season long. The enter this game having made good on 29+ field goals in seven of their last nine games and have scored 74+ points in five straight contests. An issue, however, is Princeton's inability to slow down opposing offenses, allowing 28, 29, 31 and 32 made field goals over its last four games, yielding 63 or more FG attempts in three straight contests entering Sunday's Championship Game. Take the over (8*). |
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03-12-22 | Louisiana Tech v. UABĀ OVER 135 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
C-USA Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Louisiana Tech and UAB at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. We saw an exceptionally low-scoring game involving Louisiana Tech yesterday as the Bulldogs defeated North Texas 42-36 in one of the uglier college basketball games you'll ever see. I expect a much different story to unfold on Saturday as the Bulldogs challenge the UAB Blazers in the C-USA Championship Game. Note that the two regular season matchups between these two teams totalled 159 and 161 points. They just faced one another last week and we saw a closing total of 147, so we're dealing with a major adjustment to that number here. I'm not sure it's warranted. Louisiana Tech's three previous opponents in this tournament simply haven't been able to knock down their shots, with only Marshall managing to hit more than 21 field goals (the Thundering Herd made 25 in a 77-67 loss). It's not as if the Bulldogs have been a dominant defensive team all season though, noting that they yield 25-of-59 shooting including 8-of-24 from beyond the arc away from home this season. The Blazers offer a much different challenge compared to what the Bulldogs have faced so far in this tournament. UAB checks in having knocked down 32, 32, 27 and 31 field goals over its last four games, scoring 80+ points in each of those contests. I am confident that Louisiana Tech can be along for the ride here, however, noting that the Blazers have proven vulnerable defensively, yielding 25, 22, 29, 23 and 32 made field goals over their last five contests (I realize the latter result involved three overtime periods against Middle Tennessee State yesterday). UAB generally likes to push the pace, averaging 62 field goal attempts per game away from home this season and I do believe that will open the door for the Bulldogs offense here, noting that they hit 53 field goals across the two regular season meetings, even reaching 76 points in the first matchup despite getting off only 52 attempts. Take the over (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 227 | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The pace has fallen off considerably in games involving the T'Wolves lately so not surprisingly, we've seen the 'under' go 2-0-1 over their last three games. In its last five contests, Minnesota has yielded opponents 86, 85, 83, 87 and 86 field goal attempts. None of those opponents made more than 40 of their attempts with three reaching 37 or less. It's unlikely we'll see the Heat show much interest in pushing the pace here, noting that they'll be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, and like the T'Wolves, will be on the second of back-to-backs. We did see Miami's game last night go 'over' the total but the pace wasn't necessarily there as the Heat held the Cavs to just 35-of-79 shooting, but shot lights out themselves. The 'under' has cashed in three of Miami's last five games overall. Note that we saw a closing total of just 212.5 in the first meeting between these two teams back in November. That game totalled just 214 points. I believe tonight's adjustment to the total will prove too much. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 223.5 | Top | 91-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The most recent meeting between these two teams reached 221 total points back in January and as a result we're dealing with a total right around that number for Saturday's third meeting of the season. Keep in mind, in that most recent matchup the two teams shot the lights out (CLE shot 52% and CHI shot 55%). I don't expect anything of that sort on Saturday. The Cavs have seen the 'over' cash in four of their last six games, even if the pace hasn't necessarily been there. Cleveland had a tough enough time just getting shots off in Miami last night, attempting just 79 field goals, but that game ultimately found its way 'over' the low total. Note that the Cavs have attempted 85 or fewer field goals in seven of their last eight games and face a Bulls squad that has been doing a nice job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, holding four of their last five opponents to 84 or fewer FG attempts. In fact, the Bulls have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league lately, with the 'under' going 8-2 over their last 10 contests. Note that Chicago has attempted 88 or fewer field goals in four of its last five games. Cleveland has limited Chicago to 84 and 86 FG attempts in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, the Cavs got off just 80 and 77 FG attempts in those two contests. Take the under (10*). |
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03-12-22 | Pennsylvania v. Yale OVER 144.5 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Ivy League Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Penn and Yale at 2 pm et on Saturday. Penn enters this Ivy League semi-final matchup riding a five-game 'over' streak and I look for that to continue against Yale on Saturday. The Quakers were one of the worst defensive teams in the country down the stretch, allowing 28, 30, 30, 28 and 37 made field goals over their last five games. They can't help but continue to push the pace though, as they continue to 'pour it in', knocking down 28, 29, 33, 26 and 31 field goals over their last five games and enter this contest having scored 70+ points in nine straight games - a run that started with a 76-point performance against Yale. The Bulldogs took their share of lumps down the stretch, unable to consistently slow down the opposition, allowing three of their last five opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Their offensive numbers certainly don't pop off the page, but they did manage to make good on 24 or more field goals in five of their last six games, an encouraging sign given that they don't play at all that quick of a pace. Note that we have a potential floor to work with as far as these two offenses go, noting that Yale shot 23-of-59 from the field including just 3-of-19 from beyond the arc in the first meeting between these two teams this season, yet that game still got to 144 total points. The next meeting was higher-scoring as Yale won by an 81-72 score. Take the over (10*). |
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03-11-22 | Capitals v. Canucks UNDER 6.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Washington and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Friday. The Canucks have now seen the 'over' cash in nine straight games entering Friday's matchup with the Capitals. We're always looking for a 'catalyst for change' when we're looking to go against a streak like that and I believe we have it here with Vancouver enjoying its first three-day break between games since the streak began on February 17th. Washington has seen its last three games go 'over' the total although Wednesday's contest in Edmonton just as easily could have stayed 'under' were it not for a game-tying goal from T.J. Oshie in the closing seconds of the third period. The Caps have allowed eight goals in their first two games on this trip but still give up just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. Despite a string of high-scoring games, Canucks home games are still averaging only 5.5 total goals this season. They allow just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season and better still, that average drops to 2.3 when playing consecutive home games, as is the case here. The 'under' is 15-5 with Vancouver playing at home off a home win in which it scored 4+ goals over the last three seasons with that situation totalling an average of just 5.3 goals. Finally, I'll note that this game features two of the league's more underrated starting goaltenders in Vitek Vanecek and Thatcher Demko. Vanecek owns a .941 save percentage over his last four starts (he didn't start Wednesday's 4-3 loss in Edmonton). Demko hasn't exactly been at his best lately but like the rest of the team, will be making his first start on three or more days' rest since February 12th-17th. The Canucks netminder has posted a terrific .930 save percentage in 19 home starts this season with the 'under' going 11-7-1. Take the under (6*). |
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03-11-22 | Miami-FL v. Duke OVER 147.5 | 76-80 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Duke at 7 pm et on Friday. This one has all the makings of a track meet as Duke heads into this game riding a four-game 'over' streak while Miami has shot a blistering 50%+ from the field in five consecutive games. The Hurricanes are absolutely locked-in offensively right now, making good on 28+ field goals in eight straight games, albeit boosted by overtime yesterday against Boston College. On the flip side, the Canes aren't really slowing anyone down, allowing 28+ made field goals in three of their last four games and now run into a juggernaut in the Blue Devils. Duke has knocked down 35, 32, 34 and 32 field goals over its last four games, scoring more than 80 points in all four contests. Like Miami, though, Duke has done little to slow opponents down, yielding 27+ made field goals in five of its last seven games. The Blue Devils last two opponents have gotten off 68 and 67 FG attempts. In the lone regular season matchup between these two teams Miami pulled off a stunning 76-74 upset win at Cameron Indoor. That game saw 150 total points despite the two teams hitting only 10 three-pointers (they average 15 per game combined this season) and combining for only 28 free throw attempts (they average 34 FT attempts per game combined). Take the over (8*). |
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03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence OVER 130.5 | Top | 85-58 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Creighton and Providence at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Creighton enters this game on the heels of four straight 'under' results - a streak that started with a 72-51 road loss against Providence. That low-scoring recent matchup is serving to give us a lower posted total for this rematch. I believe it will prove too low. Note that Creighton made good on only 18 field goals in that contest, including just four from beyond the arc. While Providence can obviously be tough to break down defensively, the Blue Jays do check in averaging 26 made field goals including seven from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. There's reason to believe they can show at least some improvement offensively in this one. Defensively, it's another matter entirely. The Blue Jays have had no success slowing opposing offenses. Going back to February 20th, they've yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Providence shot 28-of-59 against them four games back. Here, the Friars check in off a poor offensive showing against a frustrating Butler squad last night, making good on only 20 field goals but still managing to score 65 points in a four-point victory. Prior to that, the Friars had hit at least 25 field goals in six straight games, scoring 70+ points in all six of those contests. Take the over (10*). |
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03-11-22 | St Etienne v. Lille OSC OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and St-Etienne at 3 pm et on Friday. Lille has been involved in its share of low-scoring contests lately but did bust out with a 4-0 victory over Clermont last time out and that's certainly something it can build on here as it hosts St-Etienne with eyes on one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Of course, St-Etienne is in a different battle entirely as it tries to avoid relegation, currently sitting just one point clear of 18th-place Lorient. St-Etienne is coming off a 1-0 victory over Metz last weekend in a match that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. The margin likely could have been 3-4 goals were it not for a lack of execution or simply bad luck as St-Etienne carried the play and fired 13 shots at the Metz goal with five of them reaching target (not to mention a couple of posts). Concerning for St-Etienne here is the absence of a number of key defenders in a match it was going to have its hands full in regardless with Lille striker Jonathan David snapping his goal drought last time out and poised to build from that here. With both teams showing encouraging signs in their most recent match, and both desperate for points, albeit for much different reasons, I look for St-Etienne's trend of both teams scoring (four of its last five) and 'over' 2.5 total goals being scored (also four of its last five) to continue on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Washington v. USC OVER 141.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Washington and USC at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. Washington enters this game having seen the 'over' cash in five of its last six and 11 of its last 13 games overall. USC, meanwhile, has posted a 3-1 o/u record over its last four games. Washington didn't do much to stop the Utah offense in last night Pac-12 Tournament opener, but prevailed thanks to its own offense pouring in 82 points on 30 made field goals. The Huskies have now allowed 26 or more made field goals in nine of their last 11 games, including back on February 17th when they allowed the same USC squad they'll face tonight knock down 30-of-62 attempts from the field in a 79-69 loss. There was really nothing special that got that contest 'over' the total. In fact, it was an off night for the Washington offense as they could only make good on 22-of-60 field goal attempts. The Huskies were mired in a scoring slump at that time - a stretch that saw them knock down just 21, 22 and 18 field goals in consecutive games. Here, Washington enters having hit 25 or more field goals in six straight games and 32 and 30 in its last two contests. USC has been hot as well, knocking down 33, 26, 27 and 25 field goals over its last four games. The pace didn't necessarily dictate all that high-scoring of performances over its last few games but here I suspect we'll have to combatants willing to go up and down the floor. Neither has shown any consistent ability or interest in slowing down their opponents tempo. While we are dealing with a higher posted total than we saw for the first meeting this season, I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Sharks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Pacific Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up as a high-scoring game in Los Angeles on Thursday. The Sharks have been held to a grand total of three goals over their last three games. That's notable as that has happened three times previous this season and on those three occasions, in their next game they've scored 5, 6 and 4 goals with those three contests totalling 8, 9 and 9 goals. Here, San Jose catches Los Angeles back home after an eastern road swing. Note that the Kings have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.0 goals per game here in Los Angeles. There's a good chance we'll see Jonathan Quick in goal for the Kings after Cal Petersen started the last two games. Quick has been awful lately, posting a .876 save percentage over his last four starts with the 'over' cashing at a 3-1 clip along the way. Meanwhile, Petersen owns a less than impressive .902 save percentage in 11 home starts with the 'over' cashing at a 7-4 clip. The Sharks have already announced they'll give Zach Sawchenko his second straight start. He held up alright against the Ducks last time out but is likely to get peppered here, noting that the Kings average just shy of 37 shots per game on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that San Jose has allowed a ridiculous 5.4 goals per game with an average total of 8.3 goals when coming off a loss against a division opponent this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has cashed seven of eight times that situation has come up. The 'over' is also 9-2 with San Jose coming off three straight games in which it scored two goals or less over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Denver at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Nuggets win in Sacramento last night and also cashed with the Warriors in their most recent game - a victory over the Clippers on Tuesday. Here, I'll stick with the 'under' as Golden State and Denver match up for the second time in the last four nights. The Warriors saw their four-game 'over' streak come to an end in that win over the Clippers two nights ago. Interestingly, the pace hadn't necessarily been there during their run of 'overs', allowing fewer than 90 field goal attempts in six straight games heading into that home date with L.A. The Clippers actually managed to get off 93 FG attempts against them on Tuesday but knocked down only 33 of them. Here, we'll note that Golden State yields just 39-of-86 shooting on the road this season with its games totalling an average of 217.3 points. The Nuggets have held four of their last five opponents to 88 or fewer FG attempts and allow an average of only 86 attempts per game at home this season. They've allowed 38 or fewer made field goals in four of their last seven games overall with the 'under' going 4-3 along the way. Monday's matchup between these two teams reached a whopping 255 points but that one was played under unique circumstances as the Warriors elected to rest most of their starters and didn't play with a great deal of intensity. Keep in mind, these two teams have been involved in a game that totalled just 175 points this season, so the potential for a low-scoring affair is there despite the lofty total. Note that Monday's game saw a whopping 64 free throw attempts (46 of them made). The two teams average only 40 free throw attempts per game (and make 31 of them). While that doesn't make up for the difference considering the total we're working with here, I do think we'll see a little more defense helping keep this rematch 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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03-10-22 | Crvena Zvezda v. Rangers UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rangers and Red Star Belgrade at 3 pm et on Thursday. We won with Rangers in the first leg and the 'over' in the second in the Scottish side's stunning upset over Borussia Dortmund (which was missing Erling Haaland) in the last stage of this tournament. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as I expect a much tighter affair to play out. Red Star enters this match on the heels of three consecutive clean sheets. In its last three 'away' matches in Europa League action it has only managed to find three goals while conceding only twice - both of those allowed goals coming in the second half. Rangers of course exploded for six goals in its two matches against Dortmund. I do think they'll have a much more difficult time breaking down Red Star, as strange as that may sound given Dortmund's stature in European football. In a matchup that could very well come down to 'away goals', I suspect we'll see both sides tighten up here, with neither having faced defeat in quite some time (Rangers are undefeated in their last nine while Red Star has won six matches in a row). Take the under (6*). |
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03-10-22 | Indiana v. Michigan OVER 136 | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Michigan at 11:30 am et on Thursday. The lone regular season meeting between these two teams totalled 142 points and as a result we're dealing with a slightly higher posted total for this one. I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made, however. The Hoosiers haven't made life all that difficult on opposing offenses lately. Note that their opponents have made good on 26, 23, 27, 24 and 23 field goals over their last five games. At the face of it, those numbers don't look all bad. However, when you consider the Hoosiers yielded 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those five contests you see a different picture. Here, I do think Michigan will be able to push the pace a little bit. The Wolverines have had their own issues containing opposing offenses, giving up 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games. The only occasion where they didn't give up that number was last time out against Ohio State - a game in which the Buckeyes still shot a solid 24-of-50 from the field. On the flip side, the Michigan offense has been 'filling it up' lately, making good on 27 or more field goals in five straight games while getting off 60 and 68 FG attempts in its last two contests, showing a keen interest in pushing the tempo as I mentioned. Indiana should be a willing participant in an up-and-down affair here though, noting that despite playing at a slower pace, the Hoosiers have knocked down 28, 30, 23 and 26 field goals over their last four games, scoring 74, 84, 63 and 67 points along the way. Take the over (9*). |
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03-09-22 | Blazers v. Jazz UNDER 222 | 85-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Consider this a 'load management' type of game for the Jazz. That doesn't mean that we're going to see them rest starters, certainly not after losing two of their last three games. I'm not just not convinced we're going to see Utah go flat out for four quarters in this one as it should only be a matter of time before it pulls away as a massive favorite against a reeling, injury-riddled Blazers squad. Note that the Jazz are just a day removed from a back-to-back set in Oklahoma City and Dallas and after tonight's game will look ahead to another back-to-back at San Antonio and then back home against Sacramento on Friday and Saturday. While the Jazz offense is terrific, they're not playing at all that fast of a pace, having attempted fewer than 90 field goals in eight of their last 10 games. They average just 86 field goal attempts per game at home this season. After allowing 135 points in the front half of their two-game set in Minnesota, the Blazers did hold the T'Wolves to 38-of-92 shooting in the rematch. Offensively, Portland is a train wreck right now. After a pre-trade deadline fire sale, the Blazers lost a number of key contributors to injury with Anfernee Simons the most recent to go down with a leg injury. Simons might be able to go tonight but I think there's a better chance the Blazers give him another night off in this game they're highly-unlikely to win. Note that Portland has had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone knocking them down lately, hoisting up 85 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games, reaching just 78 in two of those contests. They've made good on a woeful 31, 34, 30, 40 (in a game where Simons poured in 38 points against Minnesota) and 23 field goals over their last five contests. Take the under (8*). |
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03-09-22 | Nuggets v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Sacramento at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on the heels of consecutive 'over' results. Not surprisingly we're dealing with a very high total for this matchup. I believe it will prove too high. The pace hasn't necessarily been there during Denver's current 3-1 'over' run. The lone game in which it allowed more than 88 field goals over that stretch came in an overtime victory over New Orleans on Sunday (we missed with the 'under' in that game). Note that offensively, the Nuggets have hoisted up 87 or fewer field goal attempts in three consecutive games. Playing their third game in four nights on Wednesday (before returning home to host Golden State for the second time in three nights tomorrow), I'm not convinced they'll be interested in a track meet here. Sacramento has been struggling offensively, at least when it comes to efficiency, as it has made good on 35, 39, 46 and 39 field goals over its last four games. The 46 field goal performance came in a 114-113 loss in Dallas (it's worth noting that final score would have stayed well below the total we're working with tonight). Defensively, the Kings continue to struggle as well, but again I'm just not sure the pace will be there to help this one 'over' the total, noting that seven of Sacramento's last 10 opponents have gotten off 88 or fewer field goal attempts. That includes two previous matchups with the Nuggets in which Denver attempted 86 and 82 field goals. In all three meetings this season, Denver has totalled 86 FG attempts or less. Take the under (10*). |
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03-09-22 | Oregon State v. Oregon OVER 142.5 | 72-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Oregon State and Oregon at 5:30 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that played worse defensively down the stretch than Oregon State. The Beavers check in having allowed a ridiculous 30+ made field goals in six of their last eight games. The last time they played in-state rival Oregon, they gave up 78 points on 31 made field goals despite the Ducks barely needing to break a sweat getting off just 56 field goal attempts. Here, I do think Oregon State can be along for the ride, however, noting that Oregon brings awful defensive form into this contest as well. The Ducks check in having yielded 31, 31, 25, 26, 27 and 32 made field goals over their last six games. That's despite four of their six opponents over that stretch hoisting up fewer than 60 FG attempts. While the first meeting between these two teams totalled 154 points back in early January, the aforementioned second matchup reached only 134 points. That was thanks to the Beavers hitting just 20-of-66 field goals including only five from beyond the arc. While the Beavers offense isn't going to wow anyone, that was arguably its worst performance of the season. They did ramp things up a bit down the stretch, knocking down at least 23 field goals in seven of their last nine games. Of course, we all remember Oregon State's incredible run to a Pac-12 championship last year. While that's probably not in the cards this year, I don't expect the Beavers to go down without a fight. Take the over (8*). |
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03-09-22 | Olympique Lyonnais v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Olympique Lyon at 12:45 pm et on Wednesday. If this were the second leg of this matchup, perhaps this total would make some sense. I don't believe it does in the first leg, however, as both squads possess plenty of firepower and will be looking to stake their claim on Wednesday. I see massive advantages up front for Portuguese powerhouse Porto in this one. The addition of Galeno - who sits tied atop the Europa League goal-scoring list with Karl Toko Ekambi of Lyon - coming over from Braga to add another dimension, not always even finding a place in Porto's starting XI, indicates the depth and talent the Portuguese side can turn to. Porto has gone 18 consecutive matches without a loss across all competitions and should be in good position to keep that streak intact here. With that being said, Lyon does pose a threat. The French side has actually seen eight of its last 10 matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals but should be drawn into a firefight here, noting that both teams have found the back of the net in six of Porto's last seven contests. Lyon has scored an incredible nine goals in its last three 'away' matches in Europa League play. If there's a weakness on Porto's squad its at the back-end and with Dembele and Ekambi ambitious in attack, I'm confident Lyon can find at least one goal in this contest. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | UT-Rio Grande Valley v. California Baptist UNDER 148.5 | Top | 80-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
WAC Tournament Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Rio Grande Valley and Cal Baptist at 9 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-08-22 | Senators v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Ottawa and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Senators most recent game - a 2-1 loss in Las Vegas on Sunday. We also cashed with the 'under' in the Blues 2-1 loss on Long Island on Saturday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the Sens conclude their road trip in St. Louis on Tuesday night. Note that the 'over' is 14-5 with Ottawa coming off a game in which it scored one goal or less over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 8.3 goals. So far this season, the 'over' is 7-1 when the Sens follow up a game that saw four total goals or less, also the situation here, leading to an average total of 8.7 goals. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to take a zig-zag approach when it comes to Blues totals. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 33-22 with St. Louis coming off an 'under' result over the last two seasons, good for an average total of 6.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 104 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Nashville at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams are coming off high-scoring games. In the case of the Stars they're coming off four consecutive 'over' results. As for Nashville, it exploded for eight goals in a shutout win in San Jose on Saturday - its second straight 'over' result. Here, I look for a different story to unfold. Note that the Stars check in averaging a miserable 1.4 goals per game when playing on the road off consecutive wins over division opponents over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 5.0 goals (five-game sample size). The 'under' is 7-1 with the Stars having scored 3+ goals in four consecutive games this season, leading to an average total of 5.1 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 46-29 with the Stars coming off four or more consecutive 'over' results in the long-term picture. The Preds, meanwhile, average just 1.4 goals per game when playing at home after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, with the 'under' going a perfect 7-0 along the way with an average total of only 3.5 goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with Nashville playing at home after scoring 4+ goals in a road victory over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of only 4.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-08-22 | Coyotes v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. While this matchup pits two non-contenders from opposite conferences, I don't expect any shortage of offensive fireworks on Tuesday night at Little Caesars Arena. The Coyotes ended a stretch of scoring three goals or less in seven straight games with an eight-goal explosion against Ottawa on Saturday. They're well-positioned to keep it going against a Red Wings squad that has had a miserable time keeping the puck out of its own net lately, allowing 27 goals over their last five games alone. Alex Nedeljkovic is expected to start in goal for Detroit - an area that has been a real sore spot for the Wings. Nedeljkovic has posted a .889 save percentage over his last four starts. The 'over' is 12-9 in his 21 home starts this season, where he has posted a .901 save percentage this season. Interestingly, the Coyotes average an impressive 4.5 goals per game with an average total of 6.8 goals after being outshot by 8+ shots in three consecutive games this season (four-game sample size). While the 'Yotes allow a disappointing 3.7 goals per game overall this season, that average rises to 4.2 goals per game when coming off a win, as is the case here (15-game sample size). As for the Red Wings, they average only 2.9 goals this season but that average increases to 3.6 goals per contest after losing five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here (nine-game sample size). The 'over' is 10-3 with the Wings coming off a road loss by two or more goals this season, resulting in an average of 7.0 total goals in that spot. Take the over (6*). |
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03-08-22 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies OVER 231.5 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Memphis at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with the 'under' in the Pelicans overtime loss in Denver two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Tuesday and back the 'over' as they wrap up their brief two-game road trip in Memphis. New Orleans is undoubtedly 'feeling it' right now, as evidenced by it hoisting up 92+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games, entering this contest on the heels of four straight games scoring 123+ points. The Pelicans will need every bit of that offensive production if they want to contend with the Grizzlies here. Memphis checks in off an embarrassing home loss against the lowly Rockets two nights ago. The Grizz continued to force the issue offensively in that one, hoisting up 97 field goal attempts, marking the fifth time in the last seven games they attempted at least 92 field goals. I do think they're catching the Pelicans at the right time here. New Orleans was always bound for some regression defensively after an incredible run coming out of the break and we saw just that on Sunday as they allowed the Nuggets to shoot 47-of-87 (54%) from the field in a 138-point effort (boosted by overtime, mind you). The Grizzlies come into this game having hit at least 42 field goals in five straight games and have scored 107+ points in an incredible 17 straight games. This is the highest total we've seen in this series this season but it's warranted in my opinion. Note that in their most recent matchup on February 15th, we saw 230 total points despite New Orleans shooting a miserable 4-of-26 from three-point range. The Pelicans will no doubt improve on that performance here, helping this one 'over' the total. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Salzburg v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Champions League First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Salzburg surprisingly carried a 1-0 lead into halftime in the first leg of this Champions League matchup. In fact, it carried that lead all the way into injury time in the second half before Bayern Munich was able to equalize. I expect a much different story to unfold on German soil on Tuesday. Interestingly, Bayern Munich has seen a grand total of just three goals in its last two matches - both coming in Bundesliga play against Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen. Most expected a wave of goals in its most recent contest against Leverkusen but that sort of affair never came to pass. I do think the potential is there for plenty of fireworks in this one, however. We saw Bayern pour it on late in an effort to equalize in the first leg and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance on Tuesday. Salzburg has conceded four goals in its last three 'away' matches in Champions League play with three of those coming in the first half. Meanwhile, Bayern has netted a whopping 13 goals in its last three 'home' Champions League contests - six in the first half. Bayern will obviously be difficult for Salzburg to break down but I'm not about to completely dismiss the young and talented Austrian side. It enters this match on the heels of a 4-0 rout of SC Rheindorf Altach on Saturday. Note that while it has found the back of the net only twice in its last three 'away' Champions League matches, both of those goals came in the first 30 minutes. I think Salzburg will be well aware that it won't be able to hold Bayern at bay for as long as it did in the first leg. It is likely going to need to find at least two goals in order to have any hope of advancement in what would be a monumental upset. Regardless how this one plays out, I believe we're well-positioned to cash the first half 'over' as we either see Salzburg put Bayern back on its heels with an early goal, or the home side strikes and then the floodgates open as they often do at Allianz Arena. Take the first half over (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Blazers v. Wolves UNDER 235 | Top | 81-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Northwest Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Minnesota at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We just saw a track meet between these two teams two nights ago on this floor as the T'Wolves rolled to a 135-121 victory. Minnesota is on an incredible offensive run right now, having scored 127+ points in four straight games. Both teams are dealing with a number of key injuries - too many to mention. With that in mind, I'm not convinced either will be interested in another track meet on Monday. Note that the Blazers have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, they've gotten off 85 or less FG attempts themselves in four of their last five contests, held to 34 or fewer made field goals in three of those games. As I mentioned, the T'Wolves are on a scoring tear and have seen the 'over' cash in five straight games. The pace of play doesn't necessarily bear it out, however, noting that Minnesota has held four of its last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. It has actually done a nice job defensively at home all season, giving up an average of just 38 made field goals per game on just north of 43% shooting. I expect this lofty total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 230.5 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers most recent game on Saturday in Miami with that result snapping their streak of six straight 'overs'. I believe the total will prove too high once again on Monday as the Sixers return home to host the reeling Bulls. Chicago desperately needs to stop the bleeding, having lost four straight games. The turnaround needs to start at the defensive end of the floor as they check in having allowed 112+ points in each of those four losses. Note that Chicago has allowed just 107.5 points per game after losing four or five of its last six games over the last two seasons with those games totalling an average of 219.1 points. Note that despite allowing a boatload of points, the Bulls have done a better job of keeping their opponents scoring opportunities in check over the last three games, allowing 81, 84 and 88 field goal attempts. Prior to that they had allowed 90+ FG attempts in six of their last eight contests. On the flip side, the Bulls have shot the lights out over their last three games; 49%, 59% and 50%, respectively. I don't expect that to continue against a Sixers defense that has allowed fewer than 40 made field goals and less than 90 FG attempts in four of their last five games. Prior to Saturday's loss, Philadelphia had scored 123+ points in five straight games. Its pace certainly didn't support those gawdy point totals, noting that it got off 82 or fewer FG attempts in four of those five contests. Regression caught up with the Sixers on Saturday (I realize James Harden sat that game out, a key contributing factor as well) as they scored just 82 points on 34% shooting. While the 'over' has cashed in two of three previous meetings between these two teams this season, none of those games went 'over' the total we're dealing with tonight. Take the under (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Levante v. Ath Bilbao UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Athletic Bilbao and Levante at 3 pm et on Monday. Yesterday we saw a wild, high-scoring La Liga match between Celta Vigo and Mallorca as we cashed with Celta in a 4-3 win. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as Athletic hosts Levante with the first meeting between these two squads this season having resulted in a 0-0 draw back in November. I'm not convinced Levante will find many offensive opportunities in this match, let alone goals. It has scored just 12 times in 13 'away' matches in La Liga play this season and goes up against an Athletic squad that has conceded only 13 times in 12 'home' contests. Athletic's back line has performed reasonably well but the results haven't been there as it has dropped consecutive matches, first in La Liga play against Barcelona (0-4) and then in Copa Del Rey action against Valencia (0-1). Needless to say, scoring has been a bit of an issue, somewhat lacking in the dynamic talent department up front. Levante should offer plenty of opportunity for Athletic to bust out of its scoring slump but whether the latter can take full advantage remains to be seen. Note that Levante does bring terrific defensive form into this contest, having yielded just one goal in its last three matches, despite two of those three contests coming against the likes of top-10 sides Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two sides have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. With Levante going winless in the last eight meetings it will simply be looking to hang on for a point here as it continues to fight its way out of the La Liga basement (and potential relegation). Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-22 | Pelicans v. Nuggets UNDER 227.5 | 130-138 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Denver at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We've been riding the 'under' in Pelicans games since the All-Star break, cashing all three of our plays including in their last game as they dispatched the Jazz in stunning fashion in a 124-90 victory, easily cruising 'under' the total. I won't hesitate to go back to the well here, noting that the 'under' is a perfect 10-0 with the Pelicans installed as a road underdog of six points or less this season, as is the case here (that situation has produced an average total of 209.2 points). Interestingly, in nine previous instances where the Pelicans have played on the road following consecutive home games, they've averaged only 102.0 points per game (compared to their season road scoring average of 104.6 points per game). The 'under' has gone 8-1 in that spot with an average total of just 207.6 points. Save for two offensive explosions against awful defensive opponents in the Kings and Blazers, the Nuggets have only been average offensively since the break. In five games since the break, they've reached 90 field goal attempts only once and that came in a game where they were in comeback mode in en eventual loss against the Thunder. The good news is, their defense has held up well, allowing 38 or fewer made field goals in three of their last four games. Speaking of defense, the Pelicans are as locked in at that end of the floor as any team in the league right now, having yielded 36 or fewer made field goals on less than 90 field goal attempts in four consecutive games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone a perfect 4-0 over that stretch. The 'over' has cashed in two of three meetings between these two teams this season but only one of those games surpassed the total we're working with here (both teams shot better than 51% in that matchup back in early December). Note that six of nine meetings in this series over the last three seasons have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (9*). |
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03-06-22 | Senators v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Vegas at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The Senators are coming off a wild, high-scoring affair in Arizona yesterday, falling by an 8-5 score against Arizona. I expect a much different story to unfold on Sunday, however, as they head to Las Vegas to take on the Golden Knights. Note that the 'under' is 15-4 with the Sens coming off an 'over' result this season, leading to an average total of just 4.9 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-2 when Ottawa follows up a game that saw 7+ total goals this season, as is the case here, resulting in only 4.5 total goals on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Knights check in off a 5-4 win in Anaheim on Friday. Note that the 'under' is 13-3 when they come off a road game in which both teams scored 3+ goals over the last three seasons, producing an average total of 5.1 goals in that situation. When the Knights play at home after scoring 5+ goals in their previous contest over the last two seasons, the 'under' has gone 23-13 in their next game, averaging just 5.0 total goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 227 | 116-124 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Golden State and Los Angeles at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We came close to playing the 'under' in the Warriors most recent game but wisely laid off as that contest soared 'over' the total in Dallas. Here, I won't hesitate to back the 'under' as the Warriors head to Los Angeles to face the reeling Lakers. The pace wasn't necessarily there for a high-scoring game between the Warriors and Mavs two nights ago but both teams shot the lights out in a game that ultimately totalled 235 points. Having allowed three straight opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, I look for a strong response from the Golden State defense in this one. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in off an embarrassing loss to the rival Clippers on Thursday. Like the Warriors, they've also allowed three consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. At the other end of the court they've had a difficult enough time running their offense let alone scoring. They're just two games removed from a 95-point effort here at home against the Pelicans. They did shoot just shy of 49% from the field against the Clippers last time out but that was a game that warranted little intensity with the outcome never really in doubt as the Clips cruised to a 21-point victory. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 23-12 with the Warriors coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 218.6 points. The 'under' is 39-23 with the Lakers seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, as is the case here, leading to an average total of just 215.9 points. Take the under (9*). |
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03-05-22 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 221 | 82-99 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the 76ers come-from-behind win over the Cavs last night - a game that somewhat surprisingly got into the 240's. Philadelphia once again shot the lights out in that contest, actually getting off only 75 field goal attempts but knocking down 41 of them in the win. Here, I expect the Sixers to face a lot more resistance against a Heat defense that allows opponents to shoot just 37-of-83 on average at home this season. Like the Sixers, the Heat shot exceptionally well in their most recent game, knocking down 40-of-77 shots in a road win over Brooklyn. That game still ultimately stayed 'under' the total and the 'under' has now cashed in seven of Miami's last 12 games overall. Note that these two teams have met twice previously this season. On both occasions one of the two squads was held under 100 points. Those two contests totalled just 197 and 207 points yet we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total for this one. Recency bias is certainly at play, too much so in my opinion. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 6 | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Columbus at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Bruins enter this game off three straight 'over' results while the Blue Jackets have seen their last two games go 'over' the total. I'll go the other way on Saturday as the two teams match up in Columbus. Starting goaltenders have been confirmed with Jeremy Swayman manning the net for the Bruins and Elvis Merzlikins starting in a back-to-back spot for the Jackets. Swayman has been tremendous lately, posting a .965 save percentage over his last four games. Merzlikins has certainly been the Jackets best option as well, recording a .916 save percentage on home ice this season. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 15-7 with the Bruins playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. The B's enter this game having scored a whopping 15 goals over their last three contests. Note that they've accomplished that feat only twice previously this season, with the 'under' cashing in their next game on both occasions. Take the under (7*). |
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03-05-22 | Stanford v. Arizona State UNDER 130.5 | Top | 56-65 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Pac-12 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona State at 3 pm et on Saturday. We missed by the narrowest of margins with the 'under' in Stanford's last game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the nation in Arizona. Credit the Cardinal for at least slowing the Wildcats down enough to stay inside the pointspread in that game but it wasn't enough to keep it 'under' the total. Nevertheless, we'll go back to the well with the same play here as the Cardinal stay on the road to face a much slower-paced opponent in Arizona State. The Sun Devils have allowed just 22 made field goals on average here at home this season, limiting opponents to just under 64 points per game. Going back to February 12th, they've yielded just 18, 19, 21, 21, 21, 23 and 18 made field goals in their last seven contests. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at a 5-2 clip over that stretch. While Arizona has also been shooting the ball well, fueling its current three-game winning streak and 6-1 run, I do think Stanford will pose a challenge here. The Cardinal have limited each of their last six opponents to 27 made field goals or fewer. Perhaps more importantly, they've been able to limit scoring opportunities in general, holding the opposition to 55 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last five games. Unfortunately for them, it hasn't translated to victories as their offense has been uneven at best, knocking down 21 or fewer field goals in three of their last four games. The Wildcats up-tempo style was really the only thing that afforded Stanford the ability to approach 30 made field goals and 70 points last time out. I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that Stanford was held to 19-of-50 shooting, albeit in a winning effort, in its first meeting with Arizona State this season. Take the under (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Dartmouth v. Harvard OVER 129.5 | Top | 76-54 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
Ivy League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Dartmouth and Harvard at 2 pm et on Saturday. When these teams matched up for the first time this season they combined to score only 119 points and as a result we're working with a lower posted total for this rematch. I'm anticipating a much higher-scoring affair between the Big Green and Crimson. After a major offensive lull from January into early February, Dartmouth has started 'filling it up' again lately, knocking down 23, 28, 26 and 28 field goals in its last four contests, scoring 70+ points in three of those games. I'm confident the Big Green can continue their surge against a Harvard squad that has allowed 25+ made field goals in four of its last five games. On the flip side, we've seen the Crimson perform well offensively lately as well, even if the wins haven't come. They're coming off back-to-back losses but have knocked down 29, 28 and 29 field goals in their last three games, scoring 77, 67 and 73 points along the way. Note that Dartmouth hit only six three-pointers in its first meeting with Harvard this season but averages nine made threes per contest on the road this season. Take the over (10*). |
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03-05-22 | Blues v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and New York at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair in early action on Saturday. The Blues are coming off a wild 5-3 loss against the Rangers on Wednesday. They've had a couple of day to stew over that poor defensive effort and should come back strong in this spot. Note that the 'under' is 36-21 with the Blues coming off an 'over' result over the last two seasons. Better still, the 'under' is 46-29 with St. Louis off a game that totalled seven goals or more over the last three seasons. The Isles continue to struggle and enter this game following consecutive losses against the Avalanche and Canucks, allowing nine goals in the process. Keep in mind, New York allows just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season, leading to an average total of only 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 15-4 with the Isles playing at home off consecutive 'over' results, with an average total of only 4.0 goals in that situation. The 'under' is also an incredible 11-2 after New York scores 3+ goals in three consecutive games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 4.2 goals. Take the under (8*). |
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03-05-22 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 152.5 | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Alabama and LSU at 12 noon et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two SEC rivals totalled only 137 points this season. We're actually dealing with a higher posted total this time around, largely due to recent high-scoring results from both teams. I see a different story unfolding on Saturday, however. Note that LSU has held the opposition to an average of 19-for-54 shooting here at home this season. After falling short in a high-scoring game against Arkansas last time out, I'm not sure the Tigers want to get involved in a track meet against a more athletic Alabama squad here. The Crimson Tide's most recent game reached 158 points against Texas A&M but that was only thanks to both teams shooting the lights out. The pace wasn't necessarily there for such a high-scoring affair. I don't expect the Tide to have such a difficult time containing an LSU offense that has topped out at 28 made field goals over its last four games and averages that exact number here at home this season. Keep in mind, in the first matchup between these two teams, LSU knocked down 10 three-pointers, well north of its season average, yet still only got to 67 points. Alabama benefited from 32 trips to the free throw line in that contest, a number I don't expect it to approach with the scene shifting to Baton Rouge for this rematch. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Knicks v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns most recent game - a 120-90 win over the Blazers two nights ago. I won't hesitate to switch gears on Friday, however, as Phoenix hosts the reeling Knicks. New York has essentially stopped playing defense entirely, checking in having allowed 111 points or more in 11 consecutive games. The Knicks are coming off consecutive matchups with the 76ers with Philadelphia putting up 125 and 123 points without hardly breaking a sweat. Philadelphia actually let up in those two contests, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals, yet still managed to get well north of 120 points in both games. While the Suns are without both Chris Paul and Devin Booker, they're still capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard against bad defensive teams, as they showed in scoring 120 points against Portland on Wednesday. Note that Cam Payne made his return to the lineup in that game and while he contributed only five points, he was a difference-maker in 20 minutes of action, dishing out eight assists in the victory. I look for the Suns to continue to force the issue here without Booker and Paul, with consecutive home losses against the Pelicans and Jazz still fresh in their minds. While the Knicks aren't stopping anyone right now, they have continued to produce offensively, scoring 100 or more points in 13 consecutive games. The duo of Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett continue to pad their stats on a nightly basis. They put up 108 points against a good Sixers defense despite getting only three points on 1-of-8 shooting from Evan Fournier two nights ago. Fournier is a streaky shooter but generally bounces back from bad performances. Just two games ago he shot 9-of-16 from the field in a 24-point effort. The Suns are a quality defensive team and allow just 105.6 points per game on the season, however they've given up 110.9 points per game when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with the 'over' cashing at a 23-12 clip in that spot. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Jazz v. Pelicans UNDER 228.5 | 90-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Utah and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Friday. While the Jazz have seen their last three games fly 'over' the total the Pelicans check in off of three consecutive 'under' results. We actually won with the 'under' in New Orleans' most recent game - a blowout victory over the Kings two nights ago. This is a game where I look for the Jazz to 'manage' proceedings in some sense after an overtime game in Houston and in the midst of a brutal stretch that sees them play at least every other day from now through April 2nd. That's right, Utah won't enjoy consecutive days off until April 3rd and 4th. So on the heels of three consecutive wild, tightly-contested, dare I say energy-draining wins coming out of the All-Star break, I'm expecting Utah to take a more measured approach to this winnable road game. I call it a 'winnable' game as let's face it, they all are for a team as talented as the Jazz. With that being said, the Pelicans should offer some resistance as they come in playing exceptionally well, winners of three straight games coming out of the break. They've held four of their last nine opponents to fewer than 100 points (that's a considerable accomplishment by today's NBA standards). Each of their last four opponents have gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The pace of the Pelicans most recent game against Sacramento didn't necessarily dictate such a high-scoring result (they put up 125 points on 88 FG attempts) but they shot the lights out, knocking down 59.1% of their attempts. I'm certainly not expecting a repeat performance here as Utah hasn't allowed more than 88 FG attempts in any of its last seven games and should bounce back defensively after yielding 50%+ shooting in each of its last two contests. Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 220 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have now seen each of their last five games go 'over' the total. It's not a sustainable run in my opinion, especially considering the pace they've been playing at. Note that Philadelphia's last three 'over' results have had more to do with the inept nature of their opponent's defense than anything else (T'Wolves and two against the Knicks). The Sixers have actually attempted 82 or fewer field goals in five of their last six games. Over that stretch they had one game where they only hit 23 of them. They also enter this game having held each of their last three opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Now they host a slumping Cavs squad that has scored fewer than 100 points in three of their last six games. We can anticipate Cleveland at least playing with some purpose defensively off consecutive losses, more than we could say for the Sixers last three opponents. Note that Cleveland has limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. These two teams just met back on February 12th and the game totalled only 196 points. The Sixers didn't have James Harden for that one and while he's certainly a difference-maker, I'm not convinced the big adjustment to the total is warranted (that game saw a closing total of 210.5). Take the under (8*). |
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03-04-22 | Red Wings v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Friday. There are times when the oddsmakers simply can't set a total high enough and I believe that's the case for Friday's matchup between the Red Wings and Lightning in Tampa. Detroit is a mess in goal right now with regular starter Alex Nedeljkovic struggling mightily, having posted a ridiculous .825 save percentage over his last four starts. Backup Thomas Greiss isn't necessarily a better option though. He owns a .865 save percentage in 10 road games (nine starts) this season, with the 'over' cashing in seven of those nine starts. The good news for Detroit is that it has been scoring with some consistency. The Wings have scored three goals or more in 13 of their last 16 games. Tonight they'll likely get the opportunity to go against Lightning backup goaltender Brian Elliott. He owns a .902 save percentage this season but that number drops to .873 here at home. The 'over' is 7-1 in his eight starts. The Lightning will undoubtedly be in a foul mood following last night's lifeless effort in a 5-1 loss to the Penguins. That really came out of nowhere as they had been lighting it up offensively, scoring 4, 6, 5, 3 and 5 goals over their last five games. Note that the 'over' is 7-1 with the Bolts coming off a loss by 3+ goals this season. They've averaged a whopping 5.1 goals per game in that situation with an average total of 7.7 goals. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Penguins v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Pittsburgh and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Friday. The Penguins exploded for five goals in an unlikely blowout win in Tampa last night while the Hurricanes were blanked by a 4-0 score in Washington. I believe we're set up for a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in Raleigh on Friday night, even after the lone previous meeting this season totalled seven goals on February 20th. Note that the Penguins allow just 2.3 goals per game on the road this season while the Canes are giving up only 2.2 goals per contest on home ice. Carolina has allowed eight goals over its last two games and that's notable as it has happened on only five previous occasions this season. In the Canes next game after giving up 8+ goals over a two-game stretch they've allowed only 1, 3, 1, 3 and 0 goals with the 'under' cashing in three of those five contests. Here, we'll also note that the 'under' is 12-2 with the Canes playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also 29-12 with Carolina coming off a loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 5.2 goals in that situation. Pittsburgh scored five goals last night but had been held to a grand total of nine goals over its previous five games. Take the under (6*). |
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03-04-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo OVER 165 | Top | 56-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
MAC Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Bowling Green and Toledo at 6:30 pm et on Friday. This game has 'track meet' written all over it. While we're dealing with a very high posted total, I believe it could be even higher. Bowling Green hasn't had any success in slowing the pace although I'm not sure it really has any interest in doing so. The Falcons have allowed five of their last six opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Opponents have been 'filling it up' against BGSU, knocking down 28, 34, 44, 28, 27, 28 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Enter Toledo. The Rockets have lit it up, making good on 105 field goals in their last three games alone, scoring 92, 88 and 92 points in those three contests. The Rockets play at an even faster pace than the Falcons, yielding 63+ field goal attempts to opponents in six of their last seven games. That should open the door for the Falcons capable offense to go off as well in an effort to keep up. BGSU has been fairly consistent offensively, knocking down 25 or more field goals in six straight games entering Friday's contest. The Falcons didn't shoot particularly well in the first meeting between these two teams this season, but still made good on 30 FG attempts including 10 from beyond the arc for 78 points in a game that totalled 169 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Sevilla v. AlavƩs UNDER 2 | 0-0 | Win | 105 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Deportivo Alaves and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring La Liga affairs last weekend with Sevilla securing a thrilling 2-1 victory over Real Betis and Deportivo Alaves sharing the points in a 2-2 draw against Getafe. Here, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as these two squads kick off the new La Liga week. I fully expect both sides to come out with their guard up in this one, noting that both Alaves and Sevilla have managed to strike first in four of their last five matches, respectively. With that being said, Sevilla has had little trouble controlling proceedings in recent meetings between the two Spanish sides, going undefeated in the last nine matches, scoring first in five of the last seven. In fact, Alaves has gone nine consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet in this series. With relegation a distinct possibility for the first time in a number of years, this is without a doubt a key match for the home side, which has found some success in the hosts role this season. If Alaves are to come away with a point, they're likely going to need to keep this one scoreless for as long as possible, noting that Sevilla has been incredibly stingy, allowing only 18 goals in 26 La Liga matches this season. Finally, we'll note that eight of the last 10 matches between these two sides have totalled less than 2.5 goals. Take the under (6*). |
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03-03-22 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 116.5 | Top | 64-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Fresno State and San Diego State at 11 pm et on Thursday. There are times where the oddsmakers simply can't set a total low enough (or high enough) and I feel this is such a spot. Fresno State checks in off a relatively high-scoring 71-68 win over New Mexico last time out. Meanwhile, San Diego State has seen its last two games go 'over' the total. That only helps to keep this number in a playable range for us on Thursday. Both teams are capable of playing stout defense and slowing the game to a crawl. In fact, they prefer it that way. Fresno State has held opponents to an average of 22-of-50 shooting on the road this season while San Diego State has been even better here at home, limiting the opposition to just 20-of-53 field goals and only five made threes per game. While both teams are capable of 'filling it up' against the weaker teams in the Mountain West, that's rarely been the case in matchups with the conference's power teams. Note that the first meeting between the Bulldogs and Aztecs this season totalled just 105 points. We saw just 37 combined field goals made in that contest. The only thing that ended up boosting the total north of the century mark was the fact that the two teams knocked down 15 threes. Keep in mind, Fresno State and San Diego State combine to average just 12 made threes per game this season so a repeat performance isn't necessarily a sure thing in that regard. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 9-2 with Fresno coming off an ATS loss this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-3 with the Aztecs following up consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 219 | Top | 111-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10 pm et on Thursday. This will be the third meeting between these two teams since the start of February and while I often suggest that familiarity lends itself to lower-scoring basketball, I don't believe that will be the case in this particular spot. The Lakers have seen their last four games stay 'under' the total, helping keep this number in check on Thursday. Keep in mind, we're working with a considerably lower posted total than we saw in the most recent meeting between these two L.A. rivals just a week ago. The Clippers check in off three consecutive 'under' results. With that being said, they've actually been allowing opponents to get out and run, with each of their last five opponents getting off at least 90 field goal attempts. The fact that three of their last four games have come against the lowly Rockets has certainly contributed to their recent run of low-scoring games in my opinion. The last time these two teams met the Lakers got off 93 field goal attempts but knocked down less than 42% of them. I do look for them to improve on that shooting percentage here. What I'm not sure they can fix in short order is their defense, or lack thereof. The Lakers have yielded 40+ made field goals in six of their last seven games. Meanwhile, the Clippers have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 43, 48, 40, 51, 41, 34 and 42 field goals in their last seven contests. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 16-5 with the Clips playing at home off a road win over the last three seasons with that spot producing an average total of 226.2 points. Better still, the 'over' is 11-1 with the Clippers coming off three consecutive games in which they allowed 105 points or less over the same stretch, leading to an average total of 235.7 points. Take the over (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Stanford v. Arizona UNDER 147.5 | 69-81 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Stanford and Arizona at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Arizona's most recent game - a 91-71 blowout win at USC on Tuesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'under' as the Wildcats begin a two-game homestand to close out the regular season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled 142 points. We're dealing with a slightly lower posted total this time around but I'm not sure enough of an adjustment was made. Stanford got off a whopping 70 field goal attempts in that game yet still only got to 57 points. Here, I don't expect the Cardinal to attempt nearly as many shots, noting that they've gotten off just 54, 58, 49 58, 54 and 51 FG attempts over their last six contests. On the flip side, Stanford has done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check lately, limiting its last five opponents to 70 points or less on 57 or fewer FG attempts. Arizona will obviously always be looking to push the pace, but I'm not convinced it will have to for a full 40 minutes here, noting it checks in as a nearly 20-point favorite at home. While the Wildcats offense gets all of the press, their defense deserves some credit as well as they've held opponents to just north of 62 points per game on a paltry 36% shooting at home this season. Stanford doesn't figure to pose much of a threat to those numbers as it averages just 22 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Memphis v. South Florida UNDER 131.5 | 73-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and South Florida at 9 pm et on Thursday. South Florida enters this game off four consecutive 'under' results while Memphis saw its most recent game stay 'under' the total despite scoring 80+ points in a rout of Wichita State. I look for another relatively low-scoring affair when the two teams meet up for their only regular season matchup on Thursday night. South Florida plays at an incredibly slow pace at home. For as poorly as things have gone for the Bulls at times this season, they have held opponents to just 61.3 points per game on 22-for-53 shooting on average here at home this season. The enter this game in fine form defensively, fresh off an upset win at Cincinnati, having held the opposition to just 20, 22, 16 and 19 made field goals over their last four games. Even with Memphis playing at a fairly fast pace lately, it has still managed to hold consecutive opponents to just 21 made field goals. Going back further, nine of the Tigers last 11 opponents have made good on 23 or fewer field goal attempts. Memphis itself has gotten off fewer than 60 FG attempts in four of its last five games. The only reason it was able to break 80 points last time out was because it shot the lights out (55% from the field). I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Take the under (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Kings v. Spurs OVER 240 | 115-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Sacramento and San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'under' in the Kings loss in New Orleans last night. We also won with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a loss in Memphis on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the 'over' as the two teams meet up in San Antonio. Neither of these teams are playing a lick of defense right now. The Kings have allowed four of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field, giving up 40 or more field goals in 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Spurs have been even worse. Their last three opponents have knocked down 59, 47 and 48 field goals, all shooting better than 53% from the field. Offensively, the Spurs continue to roll, having put up 105 points or more in seven straight games, eclipsing the 120-point mark in four of those contests. While the Kings have hit a bit of a lull and were held under 100 points last night, I don't think they'll need to be coerced into getting involved in a track meet here. Prior to last night's game, Sacramento had scored 110+ points in four consecutive games. While we're dealing with a considerably higher posted total than we saw in the two previous matchups between these two teams this season, I believe the adjustment is warranted. Note that the last time these two squared off in San Antonio, they combined to score 253 points back in November. Take the over (8*). |
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03-03-22 | Pistons v. Raptors UNDER 218.5 | Top | 108-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Pistons enter Thursday's game in Toronto riding a 4-0-1 'over' run. Going back a little further, the 'over' is 6-1-1 in their last eight contests. I'm not convinced the pace has been there to warrant such a run, however, and I expect the tide to turn on Thursday night. Note that none of Detroit's last six opponents have gotten off more than 89 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, the Pistons have managed to shoot considerably better than their season average over their last three contests. I'm confident we'll see the Raptors defense step up and keep the Detroit offense in check here, noting that Toronto has limited eight of its last nine opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raps themselves have been playing at a fairly fast pace but I suspect they'll look to 'manage' proceedings a bit here, noting that this is the front half of a back-to-back, not to mention the middle of a stretch that will see them play seven games in 10 nights. Toronto has done a terrific job of limiting the oppositions scoring opportunities here at home this season, holding them to an average of 38-of-83 shooting, while giving up less than 106 points per contest. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 18-8 with Detroit coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average of only 212.6 total points. Meanwhile, the 'under' is a long-term 29-9 with Toronto coming off two or more consecutive wins over division opponents, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
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03-03-22 | Canucks v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and New York at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks have seen each of their last six games go 'over' the total but I look for that streak to come to an end on Thursday. Note that Vancouver still averages just 2.8 goals per game on the road this season and checks in averaging just 2.1 goals per game when playing on the road off a road loss by 3+ goals over the last two seasons (19-game sample size), as is the case here following Monday's 7-2 loss in New Jersey. Backup goaltender Jaro Halak started that game. We should see Thatcher Demko back between the pipes for this one, noting that he has recorded a terrific .945 save percentage over his last four games. The Islanders are back home following a long road trip that wrapped up with a 5-3 loss in Colorado two nights ago. Note that the 'under' is 19-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of just 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with the Isles having scored 3+ goals in consecutive games this season as they've averaged just 2.2 goals per game in that spot. That's 0.4 goals per game lower than their season scoring average. New York will likely be without one of its top offensive threats again tonight in Mat Barzal as he continues to deal with a leg injury. Take the under (6*). |
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03-03-22 | Hurricanes v. Capitals UNDER 6.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Metropolitan Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Washington at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Now that we have confirmation of the goaltending matchup, we can step in with a play on the 'under' in this divisional showdown. We actually won with the 'over' in the Caps most recent game - a wild 5-3 home loss to the Maple Leafs. With that being said, we lost with the 'under' in the Canes most recent game - a 4-3 overtime loss in Detroit two nights ago. We probably deserved a better fate in that one as the score was tied 1-1 entering the third period and was still 2-2 with less than five minutes remaining. Nevertheless, I like the way this one sets up as a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday. The Canes started backup goaltender Antti Rantta in Detroit but will turn back to Frederik Andersen for this one. Andersen has been terrific, posting a .942 save percentage over his last four games. Going back over his last seven starts you'll see that the Canes gave up 0, 3, 3, 3, 3, 0 and 1 goal in those contests with the 'under' going 4-3. The Caps will have Vitek Vanecek back for his first start in over a month. He came on in relief of an ineffective Ilya Samsonov against Toronto on Monday and allowed just a single goal. In Vanecek's last 10 starts, the Caps allowed 2, 2, 3, 0, 3, 4, 2, 1, 0 and 3 goals with the 'under' cashing at a 6-4 clip. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Hurricanes playing on the road seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | Blazers v. Suns UNDER 229 | Top | 90-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Suns are having a difficult time adjusting to life without Chris Paul, having dropped consecutive games at home against the Pelicans and Jazz. I am confident we'll see them 'get right' on Wednesday as they host a reeling Blazers squad, but I'm more comfortable playing the 'under' than I am laying the points. Note that Phoenix has allowed just 105.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (39-game sample size), resulting in an average total of 218.1 total points and a 14-25 o/u record. When coming off an 'over' result this season, we've seen the Suns give up just 104 points per contest, leading to an average total of 218.5 points (28-game sample size). The Blazers check in allowing 112.6 points per game on the season, but that number drops to 109.4 ppg when coming off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, leading to an o/u record of 5-14 in that spot. This is a game the Suns will want to 'manage' as it tips off a stretch of five games in eight nights (in four different cities). Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, and with a number of key injuries including one to Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers have managed to score only 95 and 92 points in two games since the All-Star break. Take the under (10*). |
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03-02-22 | LSU v. Arkansas UNDER 142 | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between LSU and Arkansas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 123 points. While we're dealing with a lower posted total for this game than we did for that previous matchup, I'm not sure enough of an adjustment has been made. LSU has done a nice job defensively over the last month or so but unfortunately its offense hasn't always lived up to its end of the bargain. The Tigers have held five of their last six opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals while limiting five straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts. It was actually their most recent opponent that got off those 56 attempts, that being Missouri in a game where it scored just 55 points on 20 made field goals. The Tigers are allowing just 24 made FG's per game including only six from beyond the arc on the road this season. Arkansas rolls into this matchup off four straight wins. While it did manage to come away victorious in both games, I'm not convinced it wants the pace up around where it was in its last two contests against Florida and Kentucky. Prior to allowing 26 and 30 made field goals in their last two games, the Razorbacks had held four of their previous five opponents to 24 made FG's or less, giving up 21 or less in three of those contests. The Hogs filled up the boxscore in their last two games but are also just two games removed from knocking down only 18 field goals in a very low-scoring game against Tennessee (106 total points). Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 9-0 with LSU coming off consecutive ATS wins this season and 11-3 with Arkansas having won six or seven of its last eight games ATS over the last two seasons. Take the under (9*). |
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03-02-22 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | 95-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Sacramento and New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. While this game is being priced as a potential track meet in the betting marketplace, I believe the total will prove too high. The Kings have been shooting the lights out lately but I'm not convinced it continues here. The pace hasn't necessarily been there but the Kings have seen three of their last four games go 'over' the total, despite the fact that they've gotten off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in all four of those games while also limiting their opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts in each of their last three contests. The new-look Pelicans should pose a considerable challenge here. New Orleans has come out of the break holding the Suns and Lakers to 36-of-82 and 35-of-84 shooting, respectively, in posting consecutive wins. We'll see if their offensive surge will continue at home, where they average 109 points per game on 40 made field goals including only 11 made three-pointers per game here in the Big Easy this season. The Kings have limited the Pelicans to 109 and 99 points in two previous meetings this season. While the addition of C.J. McCollum has certainly provided a boost, I can see this as a big of a letdown spot for the home side, helping keep this one 'under' the inflated total. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Knicks v. 76ers UNDER 223.5 | 108-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Philadelphia at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams just met on Sunday in New York in a game that totalled 234 points. We're dealing with a higher posted total as a result for this one, but I don't believe the adjustment is warranted. Keep in mind, Sunday's game saw a whopping 79 free throw attempts. It's highly unlikely we'll see a similar story unfold here, noting that the first two meetings between these two teams this season totalled only 211 and 199 points with no more than 32 free throw attempts in either contest. The 76ers average just 107.1 points per game when playing at home off a victory this season, as is the case here (19-game sample size). When playing at home following an 'over' result, that number drops to 104.3 points with an average total of just 207.3 points (12-game sample size). Finally, I'll point to the fact that the 'under' is 31-18 in the last 49 meetings between these two teams in Philadelphia. Take the under (8*). |
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03-02-22 | Pacers v. Magic OVER 232.5 | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Indiana and Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw this same matchup two nights ago with the Magic cruising to a 119-103 victory over the Pacers, easily staying 'under' the total. That was a tough back-to-back spot for the Pacers. Here, I expect them to put up more of a fight and I believe that lends itself to a high-scoring affair. Indiana has now scored more than 100 points in eight straight games. The problem is it has also allowed 100+ points in all eight of those games, with those eight opponents all scoring 107 or more points. Interestingly, the Pacers have allowed a whopping 123.9 points per game in games where the total has been posted at 230 points or higher over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Magic have topped out at 119 points this season, reaching that number on three different occasions. They enter tonight's game having posted exactly 119 points in consecutive games - in other words, they're playing their best offensive basketball of the season. Like the Pacers, they've had trouble keeping the ball out of their own basket, however, allowing 103 points or more in six straight games. They've actually been worse defensively at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 112.0 points per game here in Orlando. We've certainly seen the Magic make a concerted effort to push the pace a little more than usual lately, hoisting up 90+ field goal attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 40+ field goals in all four contests. The Pacers will certainly afford them plenty of scoring opportunities in this one, noting that they've yielded 91, 101 (overtime), 91 and 96 FG attempts in their last four games. The 'over' checks in 13-3 over their last 16 contests. Take the over (6*). |
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03-02-22 | Real Sociedad v. Mallorca UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mallorca and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Wednesday. A key match for both of these sides as Real Sociedad looks to draw into one of the coveted top-six spots in the table while Mallorca tries to distance itself further from potential relegation. Neither side has been all that inspiring lately and I'm anticipating just such an affair on Wednesday. Mallorca has gone 11 matches without posting a clean sheet and will be hard-pressed to break that streak here but I do think we see it put forth a valiant effort. Note that Mallorca has allowed just 12 goals in 13 home matches in La Liga play this season. On the flip side though, Mallorca has also only scored 13 goals in those 13 home matches. Considering Sociedad hasn't yielded a single goal in its last four dates with Mallorca (all victories), it's likely to be tough sledding offensively for the home side in this one. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Arizona v. USC OVER 149 | 91-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and USC at 11 pm et on Tuesday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled just 135 points. Both teams are coming off 'under' results. Those two factors only serve to keep Tuesday's posted total in check. Both teams are giving up a ton of opportunities right now. Arizona has allowed 12 of its last 13 opponents to get off 60+ field goal attempts. Its only opponent over that stretch that didn't top the 60 FG mark was Washington and that was a game that still reached 160 points. USC has allowed 60+ FG attempts in six straight games. The Trojans aren't likely to force the Wildcats into a slugfest here and even if they could, that type of contest likely wouldn't favor them anyway given that the first meeting between these two teams this season was relatively low-scoring and still went Arizona's way by nine points. USC does come in having knocked down 59 shots in its last two games. The Trojans have won six games in a row and haven't seen consecutive games stay 'under' the total since February 3rd and 5th. Take the over (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Sharks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Jose and Vegas at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' when these two teams last met back on February 20th as the Golden Knights skated to a 4-1 win in San Jose. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday, however. It's worth noting that the Knights have actually been a weaker defensive team at home than on the road this season, allowing 3.1 goals per game, good for a 16-11-2 o/u record and an average total of 6.3 goals scored. After being held to just 10 goals in their last six games combined, the Knights are certainly looking for an opportunity to bust out of their scoring slump, and this would appear to be an ideal spot to do just that, noting that they've scored 23 goals in their last five meetings with the Sharks and have won 12 of 13 matchups in this series over the last three seasons. The 'under' has cashed in each of Vegas' last three games - matching its longest such streak of the season. The last time it posted three straight 'unders', it followed it up with a 5-4 home win over the Ducks. As for the Sharks, note that the 'over' is 9-1 when they come off consecutive games totalling four goals or less over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 7.9 goals in that spot. Take the over (9*). |
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03-01-22 | Cincinnati v. Houston UNDER 136.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Houston at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The Bearcats were embarrassed by Houston 80-58 on their home floor back on February 6th. In fact, this series has been all Cougars lately as they've taken each of the last three meetings by 20+ points. I do expect Cincinnati to put up more of a fight on Tuesday but if it is going to accomplish that, it will need to tighten things up defensively. The good news is, the Bearcats have done a better job of keeping opposing offenses under wraps on the road than they have at home this season. Note that they allow just 23 made field goals including only five made threes per game on the road this season. Houston has of course been lights out defensively all season but particularly of late. The Cougars have limited opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last 11 games. With the Bearcats having only managed to score 52, 54 and 58 points against them in their last three meetings there's a low probability that the Cougars suddenly get blitzed here. Note that Houston allows a ridiculously-low 18 made field goals including only six made threes per game here at home this season. Take the under (6*). |
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03-01-22 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings UNDER 6 | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Carolina and Detroit at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Wings are coming off a ridiculous 10-7 home loss to the Maple Leafs on Saturday night but I expect nothing of the sort to play out on Tuesday as they stay home to host the surging Hurricanes. Carolina checks in having allowed three goals or less in eight straight games and has given up just 2.5 goals per game on the road this season. You would have to go back four meetings to find the last time the Wings hung more than three goals on the Canes. Carolina skated to a 5-3 win in Raleigh in the first matchup between these two teams this season. That's worth noting as the Wings have posted a 14-28 o/u record when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 5+ goals over the last three seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. Going back to that high-scoring result on Saturday here in Motown, the Wings have seen the 'under' go 8-1 when coming off a game that totalled 9+ goals this season, leading to an average total of just 4.3 goals in that spot. We have seen the Wings show the ability to tighten things up defensively when they need to here at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing three of their last four contests, as is the case here. Take the under (7*). |
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03-01-22 | NJIT v. Stony Brook UNDER 139 | Top | 68-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
America East Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New Jersey Tech and Stony Brook at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these offenses are slumping right now and given the first meeting between the two squads this season totalled only 127 points, I'm not expecting anything resembling a track meet on Tuesday. New Jersey Tech has topped out at 24 made field goals in its last six games with that performance coming last time out, in a game in which it hoisted up 63 field goal attempts and still scored just 63 points. Stony Brook has made just 22, 18 and 24 field goals in its last three contests. We have seen the Sea Wolves tighten things up defensively over that stretch, however, yielding a grand total of just 63 made field goals over those three games. New Jersey Tech's last two opponents have shot the lights out, leading directly to a pair of 'over' results. The pace wasn't necessarily there in either of those contests and I don't believe it will be in Tuesday's game either. Take the under (10*). |
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03-01-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia OVER 145 | Top | 75-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
SEC Regular Season Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Tennessee and Georgia at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. Georgia enters Tuesday's clash with Tennessee having seen the 'over' cash in five straight games and I look for that streak to continue here. The Vols should have little trouble 'filling it up' against the Bulldogs, noting that Georgia has allowed 30+ made field goals in five straight games. In fact, each of the Dawgs last three opponents have shot better than 51% from the field. The Vols will be looking to 'get right' offensively after struggling a bit with their shooting over their last five contests. I have no doubt that the Georgia defense will be the cure for what ails them. We have seen Tennessee make a concerted effort to push the pace over the last couple of games, hoisting up 60+ field goal attempts in consecutive wins over Missouri and Auburn. That quicker pace should open the door for the Bulldogs to contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the total. Note that despite Georgia's recent struggles, it has shot reasonably well despite a slew of slower-paced contests. Also note that the Vols do send opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game on the road this season while Georgia has shown the ability to get there with some consistency at home, averaging 21 attempts per contest on this floor. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Spurs v. Grizzlies UNDER 237.5 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. We missed with the 'under' in the Spurs most recent game - a wild 133-129 loss in Miami on Saturday. It was obviously from the jump that Miami took a win for granted in that game with the Spurs missing a number of key contributors including Dejounte Murray and Jakob Poeltl. Here, I don't think the Spurs will be so fortunate. Go up and down the San Antonio lineup and you'll see that virtually the entire roster shot the lights out in that game on Saturday. It will face a different challenge here though, with the Grizzlies coming out of the break playing solid defense, limiting Minnesota and Chicago to a combined 82-for-186 (44%) shooting. Note that the Grizz have held the Spurs to 105 and 110 points in two previous meetings this season. On the flip side, Memphis has scored fewer than 120 points in three straight games after eclipsing that mark in six consecutive games previously. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 13-5 with the Spurs playing on the road following an ATS win this season, leading to an average total of 218.7 points. Better still, the 'under' is 22-9 with San Antonio coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 216.4 points. The Spurs are coming off three straight 'over' results, matching their longest such streak of the season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Bulls v. Heat UNDER 225.5 | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Heat have now seen their last two games go 'over' the total and you would have to go back six games to find the last time they've held an opponent to under 100 points. Keep in mind, they've had only two stretches longer than five games without holding an opponent under the century mark on only two previous occasions this season. The pace hasn't necessarily been there for high-scoring affairs, but in Miami's most recent game, it shot better than 56% from the field while its opponent, San Antonio shot 55.6%. I don't expect that type of track meet to unfold here as the Heat will be looking to 'manage' proceedings before a back-to-back road set beginning on Wednesday night in Milwaukee. The Bulls are coming off one of their weaker offensive performances in weeks as they scored 110 points on 41.9% shooting in a loss to the Grizzlies on Saturday. This certainly isn't an ideal bounce-back spot noting they average right around 3.0 points less than their season average in terms of points per game on the road this season. Note that they've scored just 104 and 92 points in two previous meetings with Miami this season. Take the under (9*). |
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02-28-22 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Washington at 7:35 pm et on Monday. These two teams haven't met since back in October of 2019 so it's easy to forget how entertaining their previous matchups were. Going all the way back to November of 2017, their last seven meetings totalled 6, 7, 6, 9, 5, 7 and 7 goals. The Leafs are of course coming off a circus-like 10-7 win in Detroit on Saturday night. While that final scoreline was somewhat shocking, the fact is, high-scoring games involving the Leafs have been the norm when they play on the road this season. They're averaging 3.9 goals per game away from home but also giving up an average of 3.3. Goaltending continues to be an issue for Toronto with both Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek struggling. We should see Campbell on Monday, noting that he has posted an .888 save percentage over his last four games. Washington hasn't been much better between the pipes, with Ilya Samsonov recording an .890 save percentage here at home, with the 'over' cashing at a 9-4 clip in his 13 starts. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 18-6 with the Caps coming off a game in which three total goals or less were scored over the last three seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 6.7 goals. Interestingly, the Caps check in allowing 3.6 goals per game when playing at home off a road loss over the last three seasons, leading to an average total of 6.4 goals (15-game sample size). I don't expect goals to be hard to come by in this one. Take the over (7*). |
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02-28-22 | Central Connecticut State v. Fairleigh Dickinson OVER 135.5 | Top | 67-66 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Central Connecticut State and Fairleigh Dickinson at 7 pm et on Monday. The fact that this is a matchup between two bottom-dwellers in the NEC has most expecting a rather sloppy, low-scoring affair. I'm not so easily convinced. Rather than simply 'play out the string', we saw Fairleigh Dickinson throw caution to the wind down the stretch and it all started with a wild 91-82 loss against the same opponent it will face on Monday, Central Connecticut State, back on February 5th. Including that contest, FDU scored 82, 65, 82, 44, 93, 88 and 77 points. The Knights have essentially been stuffing boxscores since late January. They should have little trouble terrorizing a Central Connecticut defense that has been virtually non-existent this season. The question here is whether CCU can do its part to help this one 'over' the total. Given that it shot 50% on 64 field goal attempts when these two teams last met earlier this month and the fact that FDU has yielded 60+ FG attempts in six of its last eight games, allowing 30+ made field goals in half of those contests, I believe it can. We're dealing with a short pointspread for a reason in this game in my opinion, and I'm confident that the Blue Devils can 'fill it up' against a vulnerable FDU defense and ultimately keep within arm's reach, helping generate a flurry of late scoring as well, even if we may not even need that support. Take the over (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Cadiz CF v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Cadiz at 3 pm et on Monday. With home side Granada having gone winless in its last seven matches and currently sitting only three points clear of relegation and four points above today's opponent Cadiz, I'm anticipating a cagey affair between these two on Monday. A draw certainly wouldn't be the worst result for either side and for that to happen, I suspect the match will be of the low-scoring variety. Note that we've seen each of the last five matches in this series total 2.5 goals or less. Cadiz has gone undefeated in its last five matches with Granada so we know that despite its struggled in La Liga play this season, it can hold its own in this matchup. With Granada having gone six matches without posting a clean sheet, and with plenty of extra preparation time for this match, I am confident that it can hold down the Cadiz offense, however, noting that the latter has managed only 12 goals in 12 'away' matches this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Sampdoria v. Atalanta OVER 2.75 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atalanta and Sampdoria at 2:50 pm et on Monday. |
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02-27-22 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 227 | 124-92 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Denver and Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in the Blazers blowout loss to the Warriors on Thursday night but we were somewhat fortunate to do so as Portland had a difficult time just getting shots off, let alone scoring, as it attempted just 78 field goals and shot below 40%. Following a pre-trade deadline fire sale, not to mention the fact the Blazers are dealing with a number of key injuries, including one to Jusuf Nurkic, it's likely going to be a grind for them down the stretch. The Nuggets will be an unforgiving opponent on Sunday night. With that being said, Denver is playing its third game in four nights, in three different cities, and likely won't have much interest in a track meet here. The Nuggets didn't look to have the freshest legs last night as they knocked down just 38-of-82 (46.3%) of their field goal attempts against an awful Kings defense. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'over' lately, neither have been involved in what you would consider ultra fast-paced games lately. Nuggets opponents have hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last five games while the Blazers have limited the opposition to 90 or less FG attempts in six straight and 13 of their last 14 games overall. Take the under (6*). |
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02-27-22 | Islanders v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Anaheim at 8:35 pm et on Sunday. We've now seen three straight games go 'over' the total on the Islanders current road trip. While we've missed with the 'under' in their last two contests, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. We'll note again that the 'under' is 14-4 with the Isles coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of just 4.0 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 18-7 with New York coming off a game in which it allowed 5+ goals, as is the case here following last night's 5-2 loss in Los Angeles, resulting in an average total of 4.7 goals. Better still, the 'under' is 15-6 with New York playing on the road after suffering a loss by 3+ goals in their previous game, also the case here, leading to an average total of just 4.6 goals. The Ducks are coming off a lopsided defeat of their own against the Kings, dropping a 4-1 decision on Friday night. Note that they're still allowing just 2.6 goals per game on home ice this season, having posted a 12-15 o/u record here on the Pond. Save for a seven-goal explosion in Vancouver last week, the Ducks offense has been fairly quiet lately, scoring three goals or less in six of their last eight games overall. Interestingly, Anaheim has averaged just 2.0 goals per game at home in the second half of the season over the last two campaigns. Take the under (8*). |
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02-27-22 | Pistons v. Hornets UNDER 229.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Hornets have absolutely abused the Pistons defense in two previous meetings this season, scoring 140+ points in both games. I expect a different story to unfold on Sunday, however. Since giving up 141 points in a blowout loss at home against the Hornets on February 11th, the Pistons have held their last four opponents to 103, 111, 103 and 113 points. Their offense remains unreliable, noting that they've been held under 100 points three times over their last nine games and check in averaging just 101.2 points per game on the road this season. Worse still, they average just 100.6 points per contest when coming off consecutive ATS wins over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The Hornets went into the All-Star break losers of three games in a row but did respond with a 125-93 victory over the Raptors in their first game back on Friday. That marked the first time since January 21st they held an opponent to under 100 points and gives them something to build on heading into Sunday's game. Interestingly, the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Hornets playing at home off consecutive 'under' results over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 215.2 points. The 'over' is 2-0-1 in the Pistons last three games overall but the pace really hasn't been there, noting that two of Detroit's last three opponents got off just 77 field goal attempts while Detroit attempted just 86 and 87 field goals in its last two contests. This is the highest posted total we've seen in this series this season. Note that the 'under' is 21-12 with Detroit playing with double-revenge this season, resulting in an average total of just 212.1 points. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | Montana State v. Montana UNDER 135.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Montana State and Montana at 5 pm et on Saturday. Montana enters this game on the heels of seven consecutive 'over' results. With that in mind, we're not seeing a major adjustment to the total compared to the first meeting between these two in-state rivals this season, despite that contest reaching just 125 total points (that game saw a closing total of 137.5). Montana has been a different team at home compared to on the road, absolutely locking down the opposition, allowing just 20 made field goals per game including only five from beyond the arc. While the Grizzlies have scored 70+ points in three consecutive games entering Sunday's contest, that's been the exception rather than the rule as they eclipsed that mark in only seven of their previous 14 conference games this season. Montana State currently leads the Big Sky Conference with a 13-3 record and has certainly been 'filling it up' lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. It shot better than 50% from the field but still scored 'only' 66 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. In that game, the Bobcats only managed to get off 45 field goal attempts (they also got to the free throw line 19 times, two shy of their season average). Off consecutive losses and sinking in the Big Sky standings, I do expect Montana to put up a serious fight in this game, as the line would indicate and that should lend itself to a relatively low-scoring affair, much like we saw in the first meeting. Take the under (10*). |
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02-27-22 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii UNDER 130.5 | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cal State-Bakersfield and Hawaii at midnight et on Saturday. We saw CSUB's seven-game 'over' streak come to an end last time out as it was involved in a slugfest that totalled only 121 points against Cal-Poly. I expect more of the same as it heads to Hawaii on Saturday. Both of these teams have done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities. CSUB checks in allowing just 22 made field goals per game on the road this season. While opponents have gotten to the free throw line with consistency against them, Hawaii doesn't figure to be a team to take full advantage, noting that it averages only 17 trips to the charity stripe per game and got there only 12 times in the first meeting between these two this season (that game totalled only 122 points). Hawaii has really stepped it up defensively of late, limiting three of its last four opponents to 20 or fewer made field goals. It does send opponents to the free throw line 20 times per game here at home but again, CSUB doesn't figure to take advantage, noting that it gets to the line just 15 times per contest and shoots sub-70% from the stripe on the road this season. Take the under (6*). |
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02-26-22 | Islanders v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 2-5 | Loss | -116 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Saturday. We missed with the 'under' in the Islanders most recent game but did cash the Sharks +1.5 goals in that 4-3 San Jose shootout victory. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the 'under' again as the Isles continue their road trip in Los Angeles on Saturday, however. Note that the 'under' is 14-3 with the Isles playing on the road off consecutive 'over' results over the last two seasons, with that spot producing an average total of only 3.8 goals. The 'under' is also 9-1 with New York having scored 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, leading to an average total of just 4.2 goals. As for the Kings, they've seen the 'under' cash at a 13-4 clip when playing at home off a win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of just 4.5 goals. The 'under' is also an identical 13-4 with the Kings coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, leading to just 4.6 total goals on average in that spot. The first meeting between these two teams totalled only five goals as the Kings defeated the Isles by a 3-2 score on January 27th. The 'under' is 8-6 in the last 14 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles. Take the under (9*). |
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02-26-22 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 236 | 126-123 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. I'm anticipating a track meet between the Nets and Bucks on Saturday night in Milwaukee. The Nets are coming off yet another loss, this time in blowout fashion at home against the Celtics on Thursday. Boston barely broke a sweat and scored 129 points in that contest so I shudder at the thought of what the Bucks, who haven't played since the All-Star break, will be able to do on Saturday night. Incredible, seven of the Nets last nine opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. The good news is, they're back on the road, where they of course have the much-needed services of Kyrie Irving to at least attempt to keep pace. Note that Brooklyn is averaging 113.2 points per game on the road this season, nearly three points north of its season scoring average. While the Bucks should be able to score at will in this game, I question whether they'll be able to stop Brooklyn. Note that Milwaukee's opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, scoring 131, 122, 119 and 123 points over its last four games. In fact, the Bucks have given up 108+ points in seven straight games. Keep in mind, the last time these two teams met back in January, the Nets were at home and didn't have Kyrie Irving. They still scored 109 points despite shooting a woeful 6-of-27 from beyond the arc. They average double that - 12 made threes per game - on the road this season. For their part, the Bucks have allowed 14 made three-pointers per contest here at home this season. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | Spurs v. Heat UNDER 226 | 129-133 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Antonio and Miami at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in San Antonio's wild 157-153 double-overtime win in Washington last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as the Spurs continue their road trip in Miami on Saturday. The Heat played last night as well, securing a 115-100 win over the Knicks in New York. This is a game where Miami will be looking to 'manage' proceedings in my opinion as they have another game at home against Chicago on Monday before a back-to-back on the road in Milwaukee and Brooklyn on Wednesday and Thursday. In other words, I don't think the Heat have any interest in a track meet here. Note that Miami has done a tremendous job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities, holding three of their last six opponents to fewer than 80 field goal attempts. Note that the 'under' is 10-2 with the Spurs coming off consecutive 'over' results this season, resulting in an average total of 212.2 points. The Heat took the first meeting between these two teams this season by a 112-95 score on February 3rd and that's notable as the 'under' is 16-6 with the Spurs on the road seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of 216.1 points. Take the under (8*). |
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02-26-22 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts OVER 154.5 | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between South Dakota and Oral Roberts at 8 pm et on Saturday. The first meeting between these two teams totalled 155 points and as a result we're looking at a higher posted total for this rematch (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 145.5). I'm not convinced enough of an adjustment has been made. There was really nothing special about that first matchup as far as the performance of the two offenses goes. In fact, South Dakota actually knocked down only four three-pointers in the game - three less than its season average. The two teams also made just 20 free throws combined, less than their combined per game season average of 26. South Dakota enters this game off three consecutive 'under' results. I simply don't see this game being played at the same relatively slow pace that we saw in any of those three games. Note that Oral Roberts comes in having knocked down a whopping 69 field goals over its last two games. But it is also affording the opposition a ton of scoring opportunities, allowing 60+ field goal attempts in five of its last six games with the 'over' cashing at a 4-2 clip over that stretch. Take the over (8*). |
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02-26-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Northern Iowa OVER 137.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Loyola-Chicago and Northern Iowa at 6 pm et on Saturday. The opposition has been absolutely filling it up against Northern Iowa lately, knocking down 35. 26, 29 and 32 field goals in the Panthers last four games, leading to a 3-1 o/u record over that stretch. There's little reason to think Loyola-Chicago can't add to the Panthers defensive woes here, as it comes in off an 82-point explosion against Evansville and has scored 70+ points in four of its last five contests. The question here is whether Northern Iowa can contribute enough offensively to help this one 'over' the reasonably-priced total. I believe the Panthers can as they come into this one after scoring 72, 95 and 88 points over the course of a three-game winning streak. They scored only 58 points in the first meeting between these two teams this season (that game still got into the 140's) but shot just 40% from the field and got to the free throw line only six times in that game. In fact, we saw just six made free throws in that contest (the two teams combine to average 26 made free throws per game this season). With this total sitting in the 130's, I believe we have plenty of wiggle room to work with. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vegas and Arizona at 9:35 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off 'under' results in their most recent game. In the case of the Coyotes, they're fresh off consecutive 'under' results. I expect a different story to unfold on Friday, however. Note that the Knights skated to a 7-1 rout of the Coyotes here in Glendale in their lone previous meeting this season. Vegas checks in averaging 3.3 goals per game on the road this season. While the Coyotes aren't lighting the lamp with a lot of consistency at home this season they have managed to score three goals or more in four of their last five games overall. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is a perfect 5-0 with Arizona playing at home off consecutive 'under' results this season with that situation producing an average total of 8.0 goals. The 'over' is also 12-3 with the Coyotes seeking revenge for a loss by 3+ goals against an opponent over the last two seasons, with an average total of 6.9 goals scored in that spot. The Knights, meanwhile, have posted a 14-5 o/u mark when coming off an 'under' result this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.8 goals. While the Knights gave up just a single goal in their most recent game - a 4-1 win in San Jose on Sunday (we won with the 'under' in that game), they've still allowed 13 goals over their last four contests. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 216.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. While both of these teams have been trending to the 'under' recently I believe the extended All-Star break can serve as a 'catalyst for change' heading into Friday's showdown in Salt Lake City. While it's true the 'under' is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games overall, it has also scored 103+ points in 10 of its last 11 games, only failing to reach the century mark in a tough back half of a two-game set against the Clippers (we noted that was a poor spot for Dallas and successfully backed Los Angeles in a 99-97 victory). The 'under' is 6-1 in Utah's last seven games. It has scored over 100 points in nine straight games, boosted by the recent returns of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Jazz have also given up 100+ points in nine of their last 11 games, only holding an undermanned Warriors squad and the lowly Magic under that scoring mark over that stretch. Here, we'll note that the 'over' is 22-10 with Utah playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 217.4 points. Mavs road games have totalled an average of 221.7 points over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State UNDER 133.5 | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Sun Belt Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Appalachian State and Arkansas State at 8 pm et on Friday. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only 115 points and while we're dealing with a small adjustment to the posted total in this one (the previous meeting saw a closing total of 134.5) I don't believe it will prove to be enough. Arkansas State enters this game off a five-point loss at home against Coastal Carolina as it performed poorly defensively, allowing the Chanticleers to eclipse the 70-point mark and shoot 50% from the field. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves allow just 62.7 points per game on an average of only 23 made field goals including just five from beyond the arc here at home this season. Appalachian State is fresh off consecutive wins and scored 78 points in a double-digit victory over Arkansas-Little Rock last time out. The Mountaineers knocked down 32 field goals in that contest - the first time they hit more than 27 field goals in a game since posting 33 back in mid-January against Coastal Carolina. The Mountaineers average only 65.1 ppg on the road this season where they're good for an average of 24 made field goals including seven from three-point range, not to mention only 14 trips per contest to the free throw line. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks in this one. Take the under (10*). |
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02-25-22 | Texas-Arlington v. South Alabama UNDER 133 | 52-62 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas-Arlington and South Alabama at 8 pm et on Friday. While the first meeting between these two teams was played at a break-neck pace and ultimately got into the 170's, I don't expect anything of the sort in Friday's rematch. South Alabama is playing a completely different style of basketball now than it was back in that late-December meeting. The Jaguars have been slowing things down to a crawl and should be even more motivated to do so as they look to snap a two-game skid on Friday. They certainly don't want to get out and run with UTA, noting that it has had considerable success doing so lately, scoring 80+ points in recent wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Arkansas-Little Rock. When opponents have elected to slow Arlington down, they've found success, noting that UTA has scored just 49 and 53 points in consecutive losses entering Friday's contest. South Alabama has allowed more than 21 made field goals just once in its last six games and gives up less than 58 points per game at home this season. The Jaguars figure to be able to dictate the tempo as considerable home favorites in this one. Take the under (7*). |
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02-25-22 | Spurs v. Wizards OVER 223 | 157-153 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Despite a pre-trade deadline fire sale of sorts, the Spurs went into the All-Star break having scored 109+ points in four straight games. The problem is, they also allowed 104 points or more in 14 consecutive games prior to the break. Meanwhile, the Wizards come out of the break after scoring 100+ points in six straight games. Like the Spurs, they haven't done a great job of defending their own basket, giving up 113+ points in four of their last six contests, only avoiding that fate against the likes of the Pistons and Nets (without all of their stars). Note that the Spurs check in averaging 112.0 points per game when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. Washington on the other hand has averaged 118.8 points per contest when coming off a double-digit win over the same time frame (20-game sample size). I expect to see both teams race up and down the floor with considerable success on Friday. Take the over (8*). |
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02-25-22 | Rennes v. Montpellier UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Montpellier and Stade Rennes at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a cagey start between these two French sides on Friday with a lot on the line ahead of this clash at Stade de la Mosson. Stade Rennes currently holds down one of the coveted conference league qualifying top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table but by the slimmest of margins. It sits just two points clear of AS Monaco. Note that while today's opponent Montpellier sits in ninth position, that leaves it only three points behind Les Rennais, certainly ratcheting up the importance of this clash. Here, we'll note that Stade Rennes has allowed a grand total of just three first half goals in 12 'away' matches in Ligue 1 play this season. For its part, Montpellier has given up seven first half strikes in 13 Ligue 1 'home' contests. All signs would seemingly point to an early Stade Rennes goal in this contest given its penchant for achieving such not only recently, but in this particular series. However, giving me pause to that notion is the fact that Montpellier hasn't conceded a first half goal in any of its last four matches overall. Two early goals allowed put Montpellier virtually out of contention for the three points the last time these two squads met last November (that one ended 2-0 in favor of Les Rennais). The fact that the rematch will play out on its home turf should assist in keeping Montpellier level in this particular contest for considerably longer. Take the first half under (5*). |
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02-25-22 | Norwich City v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Norwich City at 3 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in Southampton's most recent match as it could only find two goals in a blanking of Everton. Here, I think we see things open up a little more with Norwich City looking to pull off the stunner against a rolling Southampton side on Friday. We can be all but assured that Southampton will find the back of the goal in this contest, noting that it has done so in 11 straight matches across all competitions. However, it's also worth mentioning that both sides have scored in eight of Southampton's last nine matches overall. While Norwich City finds itself sitting at the bottom of the EPL table, five points back of safety from relegation, it has shown some promise in recent weeks and months. Despite its scoring problems overall this season it has actually managed to find the back of the net first in five of its last six contests. Unfortunately in this particular matchup, it has failed to strike first in five consecutive meetings, with four of those five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's no reason to raise our level of concern too high should this one get off to a slow start, noting that Norwich has incredibly conceded 27 of its 53 goals this season in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its matches. Meanwhile, Southampton has allowed 22 of its 37 goals in the second half. Take the over (8*). |
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02-25-22 | Elche v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Elche at 3 pm et on Friday. We've been involved in a few recent matches involving Levante and Elche, most recently suffering a tough loss fading Levante in a match were it struck very late to earn a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. Meanwhile, we won with the 'over' in Elche's most recent contest - a 2-1 win over Raya Vallecano one week ago. Here, I'm not anticipating much in terms of offensive fireworks. We've seen five of the last six meetings in this series total less than 2.5 goals and I'm anticipating more of the same. This has the makings of a rather uneventful affair for Elche, which currently sits in no man's land in 14th spot in the La Liga table, nine points clear from relegation but 10 points back of a coveted top-six place. As for Levante, despite its recent modest success, it is still in last place, nine points behind the safety of the 17th spot. It has managed to score just 13 goals in 12 home matches this season while Elche has the very same number of goals in one additional contest away from home. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of its last four matches, Elche will be looking to tighten things up here and might just have the perfect opponent to do so against. Take the under (6*). |
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02-25-22 | Stuttgart v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3 | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hoffenheim and Stuttgart at 2:30 pm et on Friday. I expect both sides to take a rather cautious approach in this one. Hoffenheim holds down one of the coveted top-six spots in the table but is just two points clear of seventh-placed Koln. It certainly wants to take something, if not all three points, away from this very winnable clash on Friday. Noting, however, that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches and hasn't posted a clean sheet in any of its last four meetings with Stuttgart, it will need to be careful not to get too complacent here. On a positive note, Stuttgart has managed only 27 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches this season. For its part it has gone winless in the last four meetings in this series and has been first to conceded in five of its last six contests overall. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of those most recent six matches, we can be certain where it's concentration will lie in this particular contest. While we won with the 'over' in Hoffenheim's most recent match - a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last weekend, I believe this particular total will prove too high. Take the under (6*). |
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02-25-22 | Udinese v. AC Milan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between AC Milan and Udinese at 12:45 pm et on Friday. AC Milan is coming off a surprising 2-2 draw against Salernitana last weekend but should make amends here in what I believe will be a relatively high-scoring contest against Udinese. Udinese simply can't afford to 'park the bus' and hope for the best in an effort to take something away from this match. It sits only three points clear of the bottom-three relegation spots in the Serie A table. On a promising note, it has managed to find the back of the net in six consecutive matchups with AC Milan. In fact, Udinese has been first to score in four of the last five matches between these two sides. That said, the Serie A leading outfit, AC Milan, will be looking to extend its five-match undefeated streak and should have little difficulty doing so against a Udinese squad that has yielded 41 goals in 24 Serie A matches this season. Thanks to picking up only a point in what was an expected victory last time out, Milan still sits atop the Serie A table but only two points clear of both Inter Milan and Napoli, with Inter taking the pitch later today. While the last two meetings between Milan and Udinese have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we've seen both teams find at least a goal in four straight matchups. With the underdog side desperate to earn at least a point and Milan determined to pick up all three, I believe we're well-positioned for goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Islanders v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams are coming off 'over' results in their most recent games but I expect a different story to unfold when they match up in San Jose on Thursday. The Isles skated to a 5-2 win over the expansion Kraken two nights ago. Keep in mind, the 'under' is 10-2 with New York coming off a game in which it scored 4+ goals this season, resulting in an average total of only 4.5 goals. Better still, the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 with the Isles playing on the road off a road win by 3+ goals over the last two seasons, leading to an average total of only 3.7 goals. Meanwhile, the Sharks have posted a 4-13 o/u record after giving up 3+ goals in consecutive games this season, which is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.4 goals in that spot. Keep in mind the first meeting between these two teams this season totalled only three goals. The 'under' has cashed in 11 of the last 16 matchups in this series. Take the under (7*). |
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02-24-22 | Flames v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Calgary and Vancouver at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Canucks enter this game off three consecutive 'over' results but I expect that streak to end here, noting that the most recent meeting between these two teams totalled just one goal back in late January (we won with the Flames in that game). Calgary has allowed two goals or less in eight straight games with the 'under' cashing in its last two contests. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 7-0 the last seven times the Flames have played on the road off six or more consecutive wins, as is the case here. The 'under' is 11-3 with the Canucks playing at home off a win by 2+ goals over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of 5.2 goals scored in that spot. Better still, the 'under' is 9-2 with Vancouver seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, leading to only 4.4 total goals on average in that situation. Keep in mind, while the Canucks have scored a whopping 14 goals over the course of their three-game winning streak, they average only 2.6 goals per game (and an average total of 5.2 goals) here at home this season while the Flames give up just 2.6 goals per contest on the road. Take the under (6*). |
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02-24-22 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Nashville at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. The Preds are coming off a wild, high-scoring 6-4 win in Florida two nights ago but I expect nothing of the sort as they host the Starts, who are fresh off a 3-2 overtime win over the Jets last night. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is a perfect 6-0 with the Preds playing at home after scoring 6+ goals in their previous game over the last two seasons, resulting in an average total of just 3.6 goals. In fact, the 'under' is 11-2 with Nashville returning home off a road win over the last three seasons, with that spot producing just 4.5 total goals on average. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 13-6 with the Stars coming off four or five wins in their last six games this season, as is the case here, resulting in an average total of 5.0 goals. Finally, I'll note that each of the last four meetings between these two teams in Nashville have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Buffalo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 148.5 | 79-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Northern Illnois at 8 pm et on Thursday. Buffalo has been on a blistering scoring pace lately, scoring 80+ points in six consecutive games. I do think Northern Illinois has a shot at knocking the Bulls off balance a little bit here, noting that the Huskies have limited opponents to just 53 field goal attempts per game here at home this season. None of NIU's last four opponents have gotten off more than 54 field goal attempts but the problem is it has allowed its last two foes to shoot 52% and 59% from the field. The good news is, the last time the Huskies allowed consecutive opponents to shoot better than 50% they followed it up with a 64-58 win over Ball State in which they held the Cardinals to 35% shooting. Buffalo allowed 84 points against Miami-Ohio last time out, barely escaping with a two-point win. Note that the Bulls have given up just 64, 74, and 69 points in their last three conference games after giving up 80+ points in their previous game. NIU certainly isn't an imposing offensive threat here at home where it averages 25 made field goals per game including only six from beyond the arc, while getting to the free throw line 19 times and knocking down an average of 13 of those freebies. Take the under (8*). |
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02-24-22 | Cleveland State v. Detroit OVER 144 | Top | 67-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Horizon League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland State and Detroit at 7 pm et on Thursday. Cleveland State is on an incredible 'over' run right now, with seven of its last eight games finding their way 'over' the total with one 'push' mixed in. The Vikings have scored 85, 84, 75, 83, 98, 78 and 79 points over that stretch and I don't see the Detroit Titans doing much to slow them down here. I do think the Titans can stick around, however, and I'm certainly not alone with this pointspread sitting near a pk'em. The Titans play reasonably fast at home, and get off an average of 30 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 12 of them. If they play their cards right, they should also be afforded plenty of opportunities at the free throw line, with Cleveland State sending opponents to the charity stripe an average of 22 times per game on the road this season. The first meeting between these two teams this season totalled just 142 points but that contest was played at a slower pace than I'm anticipating tonight, not to mention the fact that Detroit knocked down only 4-of-21 three-point attempts, a performance I'm certain it can and will improve on here. Note that the 'over' is a perfect 6-0 with Cleveland State coming off a double-digit victory over a conference opponent this season, leading to an average total of 167.2 points. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Rangers OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Rangers and Borussia Dortmund at 3 pm et on Thursday. No Erling Haaland for Dortmund again for the second leg of this Europa League clash but I don't believe the away side will have any trouble finding the back of the net in a desperate attempt to stave off elimination on Thursday. We won with Rangers in their stunning 4-2 upset win one week ago. They'll obviously be under fire for much of this return match but I'm confident they can come up with some answers as well, helping this one 'over' the total. Note that five of Rangers' last seven matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals while each of Dortmund's last 10 contests have gone 'over' that number. Rangers shouldn't be short on confidence as they roll into this one undefeated in their last five matches and having struck first in eight of their last 10 contests. Dortmund is vulnerable at the back end, particularly in goal where keeper Gregor Kobel has struggled mightily in three of his last five matches. Meanwhile, Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos has found the back of the net four times in his last four contests. Expect plenty of fireworks in this intriguing Thursday affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Zenit Petersburg v. Betis OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Real Betis and Zenit St. Petersburg at 3 pm et on Thursday. The first leg of this match resulted in a 3-2 victory for Real Betis. It will look to put the matchup to bed with another victory (or draw) on Thursday but I'm not convinced it will come easy. Note that Real Betis has now gone five matches without posting a clean sheet so it's likely we'll see St. Petersburg apply some pressure throughout this one. For its part, Zenit has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet and has also seen five of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. Better still, eight of Real Betis' last nine matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's certainly some weakness at the back end for Zenit and Real Betis is more than capable of taking advantage, just as we saw when it struck three times in the first leg. With that being said, I don't believe Real Betis boasts an airtight back end either, with keeper Rui Silva proving particularly vulnerable of late. Take the over (9*). |
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02-24-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Arsenal UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arsenal and Wolverhampton at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. I expect a cagey affair between these two squads that are separated by just two points in the EPL table and well within striking distance of the coveted top-five placement. Arsenal checks in undefeated in its last three matches and has also seen five of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. The Gunners will need to be cautious here as Wolverhampton has opened the scoring in six of its last eight contests. Wolverhampton has failed to post a clean sheet in any of its last 15 matches against Arsenal but we are talking about a different club this season. Wolves have allowed only 18 goals in 24 EPL matches. One of those goals came at the hands of the Gunners just two weeks ago in a 1-0 defeat. This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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02-23-22 | Cincinnati v. UCF UNDER 141.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
AAC Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and UCF at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Cincinnati has seen the 'over' cash in six straight games entering Wednesday's matchup with the Golden Knights in Orlando. The Bearcats have scored 70+ points in five straight games but clearly what they're doing right now isn't working as they've lost five of their last eight contests, going 2-6 ATS over that stretch. I do think that UCF will be able to slow the Bearcats down, noting that the Knights allow an average of only 23 made field goals and 14 free throw attempts per game here at home this season. The 'under' has cashed in UCF's last two games and it checks in having given up fewer than 70 points in five of its last seven contests. Only one of the two games where the Knights did allow 70 or more points over that stretch found its way 'over' the total. Interestingly, Cincinnati has been at its absolute best defensively on the road this season, giving up only 23 made field goals including just three made threes per game away from home. With that being said, it has had an issue with sending opponents to the charity stripe, yielding 23 free throw attempts per game on the road. Can the Knights exploit that? I'm not so sure. UCF averages only 17 free throw attempts per contest overall and just 14 per game at home. This will be the first matchup between these two teams this season and it's worth noting that we're working with a higher posted total than we saw in either of last season's two meetings. Those two games went 'over' the total but only one eclipsed the number we're working with here. That being said, seven of the last eight meetings between these two quads here in Orlando have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (10*). |
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02-23-22 | Oilers v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Tampa Bay at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the 'under' in Edmonton's 7-3 home loss to the Wild on Sunday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as the Oilers head to the Sunshine State to open an eastern road swing against the Lightning. Sunday's lopsided loss snapped a five-game winning streak for the Oilers. During that winning streak, they allowed a grand total of only eight goals. I'm willing to chalk up Sunday's seven goals allowed against Minnesota as a short-term anomaly, even if I'm not all that high on Edmonton's long-term defensive prospects. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Oilers playing on the road off a home loss by 2+ goals over the last two seasons with that spot producing an average total of only 5.1 goals. The 'under' is also 11-2 with Edmonton following a game where eight or more total goals were scored this season, resulting in an average total of only 5.5 goals. The Lightning, meanwhile, come into this one hot off consecutive road wins, scoring a whopping 10 goals in the process. Keep in mind, those performances came against the Coyotes and Devils - two of the league's weakest teams. The 'under' has gone 14-10 in Lightning home games this season, with an average total of just 5.6 goals scored. Here, we'll note that the 'under' is 12-5 with the Lightning playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season, resulting in an average total of just 5.2 goals. Finally, I'll note that nine of the last 16 meetings between these two teams in Tampa have stayed 'under' the total. Take the under (8*). |