Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-16-21 | Mercury v. Sun UNDER 162.5 | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and Connecticut at 7 pm et on Sunday. This total opened right around where I expected it - higher than it should be in my opinion. We won with Connecticut in its season-opening win in Atlanta on Friday. It faces a much tougher test here against a loaded Mercury squad that checks in off an upset win in Minnesota. The Mercury got off to a slow start offensively in that contest, scoring just 33 first half points before putting up 44 in the final 20 minutes. While Phoenix is known for its offensive prowess, it can play some defense as well, led by perhaps the league's toughest defending in Brittney Griner. The Mercury swatted nine blocks and made six steals against a quality Lynx squad on Friday, holding them to 40% shooting in the two-point victory. Meanwhile, the Sun allowed just 67 points on 36% shooting against an admittedly subpar Dream squad. While Connecticut did score 78 points in the victory, it was actually a rather sloppy performance as it turned the ball over 20 times. I would anticipate seeing the Sun do a better job of running their offense here, but likely not with the same level of production (they shot 44% overall and 44% from three-point range against Atlanta) against a tougher opponent here. Note that the 'under' has gone 56-32 the last 88 times the Mercury have come off an outright underdog victory on the road. The 'under' is 32-15 in the Sun's last 47 games as a home favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-16-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
NHL West Division First Round Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Minnesota and Vegas at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in the most recent meeting between these two teams but I'll go the other way and back the 'over' in this spot. While the Golden Knights are heavily favored to win this series I don't expect the Wild to back down one bit as the series opens in Las Vegas on Sunday afternoon. Note that Minnesota has actually taken four of the last seven meetings here at T-Mobile Arena and checks in a perfect 7-0, averaging 3.9 goals per game when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has gone 7-1 with the Wild revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.3 goals. Interestingly, we've also seen the 'over' go 13-3 with the Knights playing just their second game in the last five days over the last two seasons, with an average total of 7.4 goals in that spot. The Knights have of course been dominant at home this season, skating to a 21-7 record while averaging 3.5 goals per game with the 'over' cashing at a 16-12 clip. After a very brief scoring lull in early April, the Knights went on a tear down the stretch, scoring four goals or more in 11 of their final 16 regular season games. Likewise, the Wild also picked up the pace offensively down the stretch, producing four goals or more in 10 of their last 14 contests. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-16-21 | Mets v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | 1-7 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. |
|||||||
05-15-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Washington at 7:15 pm et on Saturday. 6's and even 6.5's have been commonplace in Capitals games this season but we're dealing with a lower total here in Saturday's playoff opener against the Bruins. Of course, we just saw these two teams skate to a very low-scoring 2-1 contest earlier this week on this same ice, but that result can essentially be thrown to the wayside as neither team iced a true NHL roster in what was a 'meaningless' game. Prior to that, the 'over' had cashed in four of the last six matchups between these two teams in Washington. The Bruins figured things out offensively down the stretch, displaying amazing consistency, scoring three goals or more in eight straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall prior to Tuesday's 2-1 loss against the Caps. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-7 with the Caps coming off an 'under' result this season, with those games totaling an average of 6.6 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 15-6 with the Caps coming off a home win over a division opponent over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-15-21 | Aces v. Storm OVER 166 | Top | 83-97 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show |
WNBA Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Las Vegas and Seattle at 3 pm et on Saturday. This has the makings of a highly-entertaining season-opener for these two teams after Seattle swept Las Vegas in last year's WNBA Final. Both teams are at a little less than full strength to open this season, as is the case for most WNBA squads here in 2021. But both are also loaded with talent and return enough key cogs to get the season off to a fluent offensive start here on Saturday. If anything, the absence of C Mercedes Russell for the Storm should help open things up on the interior for Las Vegas. Meanwhile, the Storm are obviously brimming with explosive offensive talent led by Sue Bird and Breanna Stewart. The Storm have scored 84 points or more in four straight meetings and I expect them to surpass that number again here. Meanwhile, the Aces will be eager to gain an ounce of revenge and might just have the best offense in the entire league. Expect a high-scoring affair here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-15-21 | Lakers v. Pacers UNDER 228.5 | 122-115 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Indiana at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. We haven't seen enough of an adjustment made to Pacers totals as they've now seen three of their last six games total 213 points or less. Indiana is injury-ravaged at the moment with lots of question marks around who will be able to play on Saturday afternoon. Regardless, I'm not anticipating a peak performance from the Pacers offense here against a good Lakers defense coming off a rather poor showing against the lowly Rockets last time out. Note that when these two teams last met back in early March, when the Lakers had a healthy Lebron James, we saw just 205 total points in a arrow Los Angeles victory. The Lakers might get some help today with Lebron James, Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder all potentially returning to the floor, but again, I'm not expecting a truly cohesive performance from a team that has been highly-inconsistent down the stretch. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-14-21 | Magic v. 76ers UNDER 217 | 97-122 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the 76ers 106-94 loss in Miami last night and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as Philadelphia looks to take another step toward locking up the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers sit one game ahead of the Nets for top spot in the East with just this two-game home set against the lowly Magic remaining. I look for Philadelphia to clamp down defensively in this game after it allowed Miami to get off to a red hot start and cruise, shooting better than 50% from the field last night. Meanwhile, the 76ers haven't shot better than 48.8% from the field since May 5th in Houston. Note that Philadelphia held Orlando to just 92 points in its first meeting this season back on December 31st. That game totaled just 208 points and the Magic obviously had a lot more scoring punch on their roster at the time. Here, we find the Magic having shot 41.8% or worse from the field in five straight games and riding a three-game 'under' streak following last night's drubbing in Atlanta (we won with the Hawks in that game). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-14-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets UNDER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We've seen some wild, high-scoring games in so-called 'meaningless' games here in the final stretch of the regular season and with the Leafs and Jets both capable of stuffing the scoresheet most are anticipating a similar result here. I'll go the other way and call for both teams to work on cleaning things up in Friday's regular season finale. All indications are that the goaltending matchup will featuring Jack Campbell and Connor Hellebuyck - the two teams' likely playoff starters as well. Frederik Andersen returned after an extended absence for the Leafs on Wednesday and struggled, allowing four goals in a loss to the Senators. Of course, he wasn't given a great deal of help in that game either. I do look for Toronto to tighten things up here, noting that it checks in having allowed just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. The Jets have struggled to find offensive consistency since losing Nik Ehlers for the season. While they're coming off a five-goal outburst against the weary Canucks two nights ago, they've scored three goals or less in nine of their last 11 games overall. On a positive note, they have allowed three goals or less in four of their last five games. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six meetings between these two teams here in Winnipeg. The 'under' checks in 14-7 with the Leafs coming off two wins in their last three games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 5.6 goals and 16-8 with the Leafs having scored three goals or more in consecutive games this season, also resulting in an average total of 5.6 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-14-21 | Cubs v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. These two teams are both coming off consecutive low-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold as they open their series in Detroit on Friday night. Jake Arrieta will take the ball for Chicago. While this would appear to be a favorable bounce-back spot for him after he allowed seven earned runs in just 3 1/3 innings in his last start in Cincinnati, a closer look shows that the Tigers are actually seeing the ball well right now, having scored at least four runs in seven of their last eight games, and six runs or more in five of those contests. Arrieta is worse than the MLB average in terms of hard-hit ball percentage and exit velocity off opposing bats and has also recorded a poor 35.1% fly ball percentage. In keeping with a trend from the last couple of seasons, Arrieta has posted a home run percentage north of 3% so far this year - in fact he's trending toward his highest home run rate since back in his second big league season in 2011. Speaking of home runs allowed, Tigers starter Tarik Skubal has had an incredibly tough time keeping the ball in the park, recording a 37.8% fly ball percentage and 8.0% home run percentage. Keep in mind, he also posted a 6.7% home run rate in 32 innings of work last season, noting that the MLB average sits at 3.3% going back to the start of last season. The Cubs have crushed left-handed starting pitching this season, posting a 7-3 record and hitting .273 as a team and averaging 6.8 runs per game. Skubal has yet to make it through the sixth inning in any of his five starts this season which opens the door for plenty of work for the Tigers down-trodden bullpen, which entered yesterday's action having posted a collective 6.62 ERA this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-21 | Blazers v. Suns OVER 233 | Top | 117-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Portland and Phoenix at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. This game sets up as a track meet with the Blazers playing the second of back-to-back nights off an upset win in Utah last night and the Suns returning home off a disappointing 0-2 road trip against the Lakers and Warriors. Portland got bogged down a bit offensively against a quality Jazz defense last night but should get plenty of good looks against a struggling Suns defense that checks in fourth-worst in the league in opponents floor percentage over their last three games. The Suns are in a prime bounce-back spot at home, where they average just shy of 117 points per game and shoot 49.5% as a team this season. They've absolutely torched the Blazers in two previous meetings this season, scoring 132 and 127 points. The 'over' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams here in Phoenix. The 'over' is 20-8 with Portland revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 239 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | 1-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. We missed with the 'under' in this matchup last night as the Avs poured it on early and cruised to a 6-0 victory, eclipsing the total by a half-goal. I'll go back to the well here, however, as I do expect the Kings to show some pride off an embarrassing loss and playing their regular season finale. Note that the Kings have allowed just 2.1 goals per game after losing their last game by three goals or more this season. Of course, the Avs are locked in defensively right now, having allowed two goals or less in four consecutive games, with three of those coming against the Kings. There's still reason for them to go all out here as they look to secure top spot in the West Division and draw an easier first round matchup against St. Louis (instead of Minnesota). With that being said, they will continue to be cautious with Nathan MacKinnon as he is expected to miss this game due to an undisclosed injury. Note that the 'under' is 20-8 with the Kings playing on the road revenging a loss where they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. Despite last night's 'over' result, the 'under' remains 4-2 in the last six meetings in this series here in Colorado and nine of the last 13 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-21 | 76ers v. Heat UNDER 218.5 | 94-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Miami at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Heat have inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in each of their last 10 games but I believe that streak will be put in jeopardy as they host the defensive-minded 76ers on Thursday night. The first two meetings in this series this season were both high-scoring games but those came back in the second week of January. The 76ers are in excellent defensive form right now, having allowed just 104.6 points per game on 44% shooting over their last five contests. Note that they've posted a 13-22 o/u record away from home this season. The Heat enter this game having shot better than 50% in each of their last three games and a blazing 57.3% and 59.3% in sweeping consecutive games in Boston in their last two contests. That's certainly not a sustainable trend, noting that the Heat average 107.9 points per game on 46.7% shooting this season. In the long-term picture, the 'under' has gone 97-59 with the Heat coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-13-21 | Giants v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
N.L. Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Thursday. |
|||||||
05-12-21 | Kings v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The 'under' has ruled this series, cashing in four of the last five meetings in Colorado and nine of the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. The Avs are absolutely locked in right now as they battle for top spot in the West Division - and the entire league. They've allowed two goals or less in three straight games, including consecutive 3-2 victories over the Kings in Los Angeles last week. Note that Colorado is allowing just 2.0 goals per game on home ice this season, where it has gone 19-6. The Kings check in having scored two goals or less in six of their last eight games. The 'under' has cashed in eight of their last 10 contests. Note that the 'under' has gone 32-17 the last 49 times the Kings have played on the road after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 25-12 with the Kings heading on the road following two or more straight home games over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of only 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Avs have given up just 2.2 goals per game after winning three of their last four games this season, with the 'under' going 15-7 in that spot with an average total of just 5.1 goals. Colorado has also posted a 10-22 o/u record when playing at home off a one-goal win over the last two seasons. As much as the Kings would like to play spoiler here, they've managed to score just one goal in two previous games in Colorado this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-12-21 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
North Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Edmonton and Montreal at 5:05 pm et on Wednesday. Monday's matchup between these two teams found its way 'over' the total as the Oilers prevailed 4-3 in overtime. That marked Edmonton's third straight 'over' result which is worth mentioning as it hasn't posted more than three consecutive 'overs' since a five-game streak back in the last week of January. While the Oilers are known for their offense, they can play some defense as well, having allowed three goals or less in eight of their last nine games overall. The Canadiens have scored three goals or less in six straight and 10 of their last 11 games overall and average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season. While they would certainly like to right the ship here off of four consecutive losses, that hasn't been a favorable spot for them in recent years, averaging just 2.5 goals per game while going 4-10 in that situation over the last two seasons. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Oilers playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last two seasons, with that situation totaling an average of just 4.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at an 11-3 clip with Edmonton playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season, with an average total of just 4.9 goals in that spot. For Montreal's part, it has posted a 9-17 o/u record when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent this season with that situation producing an average total of 5.4 goals. The Habs have done a fairly solid job containing the Oilers offense in eight previous meetings this season, allowing just 2.3 goals per game. The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings in Montreal and 7-5 in the last 12 matchups between these two teams overall. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls OVER 232 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Brooklyn and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been defense-optional for the Nets much of the season under the guidance of first-year head coach Steve Nash, particularly on the road where they've allowed the opposition to shoot better than 47% from the field. Note that opponents are averaging 117 points per game with an average total of 239.2 points with the Nets playing as a road favorite this season. The 'over' has cashed at a 16-7 clip in that situation. On the flip side, the Bulls haven't seen the 'over' cash since April 26th against the Heat. They're healthy though, and I believe they have the personnel to give the Nets a run in what has the potential to be a very high-scoring affair on Tuesdaynight. Even Bulls sophomore Coby White has been contributing consistently at the offensive end of the floor lately, scoring 21 points or more in three of the last four games. With Zach LaVine back and seemingly getting stronger with each passing game (he scored 30 points in Sunday's win in Detroit), there's reason to believe the Bulls can put up some big offensive numbers down the stretch. Meanwhile, the Nets scored 125 points despite just 66 field goal attempts in Saturday's 125-119 win in Denver. That result snapped a four-game 'under' streak for Brooklyn, although it's worth noting that two of those four 'under' results would have gone 'over' the number we're dealing with here tonight. The last meeting between these two teams totaled just 222 points back on April 4th but the Nets were without Kevin Durant for that contest and Kyrie Irving made good on just 12 field goal attempts for 24 points. Here, I'll note that the Nets are averaging 120.8 points per game with an average total of 239.5 points when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite this season, as is the case here. The 'over' has still cashed in five of the last eight meetings in this series and I look for that trend to continue here. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-11-21 | Canucks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Winnipeg at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's meeting between these two teams got off to a fast start with three goals in the first period but fizzled from there as Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko stood on his head turning aside 39 of 40 shots in a 3-1 Vancouver victory. The Jets are struggling mightily right now but I do expect them to display some push-back here tonight and they should catch a break with Braden Holtby likely to get the nod in goal for Vancouver (the Canucks have yet to give a goaltender consecutive starts in a back-to-back spot this season). Of course, the veteran Holtby has struggled this season with a GAA well north of three and a save percentage under .900. We've seen the Canucks score three goals or more in three straight games and eight of 13 contests since returning to the ice following a long Covid-induced layoff last month. The 'over' checks in 18-8 with the Jets coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 6.7 goals. Meanwhile, the 'over' is 21-11 with the Canucks following a game where four total goals or less were scored, with that spot producing an average total of 6.6 goals. We've seen the Canucks run out of gas defensively on long road trips in recent years, allowing 4.0 goals per game when playing a fourth consecutive road game over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 6.5 total goals on average. While the 'under' has cashed in six of the last seven meetings in this series, it's certainly worth noting that we've seen a number of 6's and 6.5's over that stretch. We're dealing with a more reasonable total here tonight. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-10-21 | Pelicans v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between New Orleans and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans continue to battle to earn their way into the play-in tournament but off a big come-from-behind win in Charlotte last night I can't help but feel a letdown could be in order here. Without Zion in the lineup, the Pelicans have been forced to change their identity a little bit and come in off consecutive stellar defensive efforts in his absence. In fact, the 'under' is now 8-1 in the Pelicans last nine games overall. The fact that New Orleans scored 118 and 144 points in two previous wins over the Grizzlies this season should certainly peak Memphis' interest heading into this one. Like New Orleans, Memphis also ramped up its defensive play last time out, holding Toronto to under 39% shooting in a 10-point victory. That was the second time in their last six games the Grizzlies held an opponent to fewer than 100 points - a true accomplishment in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 11-2 the last 13 times the Grizzlies have found themselves in a situation looking for revenge for a loss by 20 points or more, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.4 points. While the Pelicans have more serious injury concerns with Zion and Brandon Ingram sidelined, the Grizzlies have issues of their own with underrated scorer Grayson Allen ruled out for Monday's game. It's certainly worth noting that Grizzlies super-soph Ja Morant has been slumping a bit lately as well, scoring 12 points or less in four of his last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-10-21 | Islanders v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We're likely only seeing a 5.5 here due to the fact that both teams are coming off 'over' results on Saturday and have generally been trending in that direction over the last week or so. I'm not anticipating a 'high-event' game on Monday night as the Isles wrap up their regular season schedule in Boston. New York snapped its three-game losing streak with a 5-1 victory over New Jersey on Saturday (we won with the Isles) but has still scored three goals or less in seven of its last nine games overall and checks in averaging a miserable 2.0 goals per game on the road this season. Boston has scored exactly four goals in back-to-back games and that plays into our favor here, noting that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 after the B's have put up four goals or more in consecutive games this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.4 goals. The 'under' also checks in 8-2 with the Bruins playing at home following an 'over' result, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 5.0 goals. Meanwhile, the Isles have posted a 1-7 o/u mark when heading on the road following a home game this season, with those contests totaling an average of just 3.5 goals. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 15-5 clip with the Isles coming off a victory by four goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of only 4.7 goals. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams in Boston and eight of their last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-09-21 | Senators v. Flames UNDER 6 | 1-6 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Ottawa and Calgary at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. The 'under' has cashed in four straight games involving the Flames and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday in Calgary. The Flames have gone 6-5 over their last 11 games, allowing four goals or less in all 11 of those contests and two goals or less in eight of those games. Offensively, Calgary has scored a grand total of just five goals over its last four games and faces a Sens squad that has played better defensively of late, giving up three goals or less in six straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. While the Sens did score four goals in last night's victory in Winnipeg, they check in averaging only 2.7 goals per game on the road this season. I don't see this as a peak performance spot for Ottawa here, also noting that Calgary allows only 2.4 goals per game after giving up four or more goals over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-09-21 | Mavs v. Cavs OVER 216.5 | 124-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Dallas and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup two nights ago in Dallas as the Mavs were in a clear letdown spot one night after outlasting Brooklyn in a nationally-televised matchup. Even with that situation, and the fact that Dallas shot worse than 50% and didn't play at a particularly fast pace against an awful Cavs defense, it still managed to score 110 points. Meanwhile, the Cavs still contributed enough offense to get the final score to 200 points despite turning in two sub-20-point quarters and shooting worse than 39% from the field. While I'm certainly not high on the Cavs offense with Darius Garland sidelined, I do think they can do enough offensively to help this one 'over' the very reasonable total on Sunday night. After holding three straight opponents to 46.4% shooting or worse, some regression should be in order for the Dallas defense in this spot. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-11 with the Mavs coming off consecutive home games over the last two seasons with those contests totaling an average of 230.0 points. Meanwhile, the 'over' has gone 29-17 with the Cavs coming off at least three straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 223.0 points. The Cavs are in dire straights defensively right now, having allowed six of their last seven opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and and 12 of their last 13 opponents to shoot 48.3% or better. Finally, note that the 'over' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-08-21 | Ducks v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the Wild skated to a 4-3 overtime victory. The Ducks set the tone for that one with an early goal in the game's first eight minutes but I look for a different story to unfold on Saturday night. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-5 with the Ducks coming off consecutive games in which they scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.7 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 14-5 with the Ducks coming off an 'over' result this season. They average just 1.7 goals per game in that spot with an average total of only 4.9 goals. On a positive note, Anaheim does check in allowing just 1.6 goals per game when playing on the road after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up nine times with those games averaging only 3.8 total goals. The Wild have performed well offensively in recent weeks but off six consecutive one-goal games - with the last two decided in overtime - I certainly feel a letdown could be in order here. Minnesota would like nothing more than to jump ahead early and manage the game the rest of the way, noting that it has allowed just 2.5 goals per game on home ice this season. Despite last night's result, the 'under' has still cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series here in Minnesota and eight of the last 13 matchups overall over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-07-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks OVER 5.5 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' and the Sharks on the puck-line in their 3-2 upset victory over the Avalanche on home ice two nights ago. Here, I'll go the other way and back the 'over' as defense has been optional in this series so far this season. The 'over' has actually cashed in 10 of the last 13 meetings in this series, including three of the last five here in San Jose. We've seen four of six meetings in this series this season reach at least seven total goals. The Coyotes check in off three straight losses, scoring exactly two goals in each game. They should be able to improve on that production here, however, noting that they average 3.6 goals per game when coming off a home loss by two goals or more over the last two seasons and face a Sharks squad that has allowed 3.5 goals per game on home ice this season. San Jose has scored at least four goals in three of its last six contests, averaging 3.3 goals per game over that stretch. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 with the Sharks coming off a one-goal victory on home ice, with those contests totaling an average of 6.9 goals. Arizona has struggled to keep the puck out of its net on the road all season, allowing an average of 3.3 goals per game. With both teams simply playing out the string at this point and both surprisingly healthy up front at this late stage of the season, I'm anticipating some offensive fireworks on Friday night in Silicon Valley. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-07-21 | Cavs v. Mavs UNDER 221 | Top | 90-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Cleveland and Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Friday. Cleveland catches Dallas in an advantageous spot on Friday night, rested and waiting while the Mavs were involved in a thrilling victory over the Nets in a marquee showdown just last night. Of course, the Cavs don't really have the personnel to take full advantage as they check in having lost eight straight and 11 of their last 12 games overall. I do think we at least see the Cavs show some pride defensively here after allowing 122 or more points in four straight games and six consecutive opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. This isn't a spot where we're likely to see the Mavs go off offensively on the second of back-to-back nights. There's always the chance that they end up resting some starters (most notably Luka Doncic) although we'll operate under the assumption that they'll have the same lineup that we saw last night at the very least. Note that the Mavs have actually been a weaker offensive team at home compared to on the road this season, averaging 110.6 points per game on 46.6% shooting entering last night's contest. After last night's game managed to say 'under' the total, the 'under' is now 20-14 with the Mavs playing at home this season. Meanwhile, the 'under' is 20-13 in all Cavs road games this season, where they average just 100.1 points per game on 44.1% shooting. Their offense isn't operating with much efficiency right now, largely due to the absence of standout sophomore Darius Garland, who is sidelined with an ankle injury. There seem to be a lot of instances where the Cavs are just standing around waiting for Collin Sexton to take over the game. He's a dynamic scorer to be sure, but he obviously needs help for the Cavs to be competitive. Note that Cleveland has shot 43.4% or worse from the field in four of its last six games, most recently shooting 40.2% in a 36-point rout at the hands of the Blazers, at home no less. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-07-21 | Stars v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Dallas and Tampa Bay at 7:05 pm et on Friday. It's desperation time for the Stars even if their odds of overtaking the fourth-place Predators in the Central Division are slim with only three games left on their schedule. After an ugly 6-2 loss here in Tampa two nights ago I do expect them to put up more of a fight on Friday. Note that Dallas has allowed just 1.9 goals per game when playing on the road off a loss by four goals or more against a division opponent over the last two seasons. The problem is they've managed to score just 2.0 goals per game themselves in that situation, with the 'under' cashing at a perfect 7-0 clip. Also note that the 'under' is 11-3 with the Stars coming off consecutive games in which they gave up three goals or more this season with those contests totaling an average of just 4.6 goals. While the Lightning are known for their offense, outbursts like we saw from them two nights ago have been few and far between recently as they've scored three goals or less in 18 of their last 22 games overall. Of course, they've been stout defensively here at home all season, allowing just 2.2 goals per game. In three home matchups against the Stars they've given up a grand total of just two goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 211 | Top | 94-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between the Lakers and Clippers at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. These two teams were involved in a sleepy 104-86 affair in favor of the Clippers back on Easter Sunday but I expect a different story to unfold in Thursday's rematch. The Lakers are coming off a low-scoring victory over the Nuggets on Monday night. It's worth noting that only once over their last 15 games have we seen the Lakers post consecutive 'under' results. With Anthony Davis back on the court there's reason to believe they can put up more of a fight against the Clippers than we saw from them in their last meeting back on April. The Clippers haven't looked overly motivated in the last couple of weeks, dropping three of their last four games SU and five in a row ATS. Note that the Clips average a whopping 124.3 points per game after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of 228 points. I certainly expect to see the Clippers get up for this matchup and I'm confident they can break out of their offensive funk, noting that they average 116.4 points per game on 49.1% shooting here at home this season. Defensively, the Clippers are an elite team but haven't been quite as locked in lately, allowing three of their last four opponents to shoot 47.3% or better from the field. Note that the 'over' is 41-24 with the Clippers at home coming off a win over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of 227.4 points. While the 'under' is 20-11 in Lakers road games this season (I realize calling this a 'road' game is a stretch) those contests have actually totaled an average of 212.9 points - just north of the number we're working with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
NHL Central Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Carolina has cruised to consecutive wins over the Blackhawks with both games going 'over' the total. Here on Thursday, I'm anticipating a reversal of sorts with a lower-scoring affair. Note that we've seen the Canes suffer a bit of a lull in similar situations, having averaged just 2.4 goals per game when coming off consecutive victories by two goals or more over the last two seasons. That situation has produced an average total of just 5.2 goals on the last 16 occasions it has come up. Note that the Blackhawks are averaging just 2.4 goals per game on the road this season and have been fortunate to score five goals in the first two games of this three-game set, noting that the Canes have been incredibly stout defensively at home this season, allowing only 2.1 goals per contest. I'm not convinced we see a real high-energy game here from either team as both teams wind down the regular season - the Blackhawks looking forward to hitting the golf course and the Canes preparing for what they hope will be a deep playoff run. We've seen similar situations this season where two teams play one another three times or more in the same location and by the end of the stretch, the intensity tends to wane. I expect a similar story to unfold in a potentially low-event contest on Thursday in Raleigh. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Boston at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Rangers are coming off consecutive emotional losses against the Capitals and I really question how much they have left in the tank for this one, playing their third game in four nights and the second of back-to-backs. The Bruins will be looking to tighten things up after blowing a third period lead in an eventual 4-3 loss to the Devils last time out. Note that the B's have been stout defensively here at home this season, allowing just 2.5 goals per game. Already in a foul mood following the loss in New Jersey, Boston will also be seeking revenge after dropping its last matchup with the Rangers by a 4-0 score here on home ice back on March 13th. Note that the 'under' has cashed in eight of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five here at TD Garden. The Rangers were completely distracted by the Tom Wilson fiasco over the last two games, allowing a whopping 10 goals in consecutive losses to the Caps. Note that prior to those two contests, New York had held 11 of its last 13 opponents to three goals or less. Offensively, the Rangers will without question missing Artemi Panarin - keeping in mind, this is a team that has already been held to three goals or less in five straight games, averaging just 1.6 goals per game over that stretch. Also note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with the Rangers coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 3.7 goals. We have seen the Rangers tighten things up off a home loss this season, allowing an average of just 2.1 goals. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-21 | Devils v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and New York at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. The Islanders are coming off consecutive stunning losses against the lowly Sabres in Buffalo but find themselves well-positioned to bounce back at home on Thursday night. While my first look would generally be to the 'under' with New York coming off consecutive losses, here I'll go the other way and call for a relatively high-scoring affair against the Devils. Note that New York is averaging a whopping 5.1 goals per game when playing at home after losing two of its last three games this season. That situation has come up seven times and has resulted in an average total of 6.8 goals. Keep in mind, the Isles rested their top gun Mat Barzal two nights ago in Buffalo but I would expect him to be back in the lineup tonight. He is of course the team's leading point scorer by a longshot this season. The Devils have been a much higher-scoring team on the road this season with the 'over' going 15-9-1 with those games averaging 6.4 total goals. Note that New Jersey is averaging 3.4 goals per game when heading on the road following two or more consecutive home games this season. The Devils have been scoring with some consistency of late, putting up three goals or more in eight of their last 11 games and four or more in four of their last five. They've had to play a more wide-open style with their young stud defenseman Ty Smith sidelined. He re-aggravated an injury on Monday and could be shut down for the remainder of the season. While a key offensive contributor as well, Smith has been steadying force in the defensive zone for the Devils this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Miami at 6:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these lineups have gotten a little healthier this week with the D'Backs welcoming back regular clean-up hitter Christian Walker and the Marlins getting back Brian Anderson. It's been a lopsided series so far with the Marlins doing most of the damage offensively. I look for both teams to take part on Thursday, however, as this total should prove too low. Madison Bumgarner has turned back the clock over his last few starts, most notably tossing a seven-inning no-hitter against the Braves two starts back. I question whether he can keep it up though. Note that the Marlins have hit considerably better against left-handed starters this season (.252 as a team), averaging 4.9 runs per game. Meanwhile, the D'Backs will face right-hander Pablo Lopez, noting that they're averaging 5.2 runs per contest against righty starters this season. Concerning for the Snakes here is their awful bullpen, which entered last night's action having posted a 5.30 ERA on the season, with that number ballooning to 8.58 over their last seven games. The Marlins 'pen has been far better but a 4.14 home ERA (entering last night's game) is nothing to write home about. This has been a reasonably high-scoring series in recent years with the 'over' going 5-2-2 in nine previous meetings over the last three seasons. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-06-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 3:35 pm et on Thursday. We saw a high-scoring game between these two teams last night as the Blue Jays prevailed by a 9-4 score to earn their first victory in three tries in this series. I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair on Thursday as Jays ace Hyun-Jin Ryu returns to the hill following a stint on the injured list to face A's veteran Mike Fiers. All indications are that Ryu is good to go after spending the minimum 10 days on the I.L. While the A's do check in sporting a 9-3 record against left-handed starters this season, Ryu will be the best they've faced and it's worth noting that they've actually hit just .218 against southpaw starters. Behind Ryu is a Jays bullpen that has been lights out this season, entering last night's action sporting a collective 2.46 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Mike Fiers was a little shaky in his season debut for the A's but battled hard and managed to last six innings, allowing three earned runs on six hits while striking out three and walking two. I would expect Fiers to do a good job of eating some innings again here today, setting the table for an A's bullpen that entered last night's action having posted a 1.23 ERA over the last seven games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
NHL North Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Winnipeg and Calgary at 9:35 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the Jets on Monday night as they suffered a 2-1 loss in Ottawa - their seventh consecutive loss. We probably deserved a better fate as Winnipeg dominated possession and scoring chances in a game where they just as easily could have had four or five goals were it not for the exploits of Sens 22-year old goaltender Filip Gustavsson. We've certainly seen signs of the Jets offense breaking out as two games back they scored three goals in a loss in Montreal. Now we find Winnipeg averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on the road after scoring one goal or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've seen the 'over' go 9-2 with the Jets coming off a game where four goals or less were scored, with an average total of 7.1 goals in those contests. Meanwhile, the Flames check in off a 4-1 loss against the rival Oilers on Saturday. In spite of that, they have been playing better hockey lately, scoring three goals or more in three of their last five games, going 3-2 over that stretch. Here, we find the Flames in a situation where the 'over' has gone 11-2 over the last three seasons, when they revenge a home loss by three goals or more, with that situation producing an average total of 8.2 goals. We've seen the Jets bounce back from poor offensive performances this season, but it's often come at the expense of their own defensively play as they've allowed 3.8 goals per game after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest this season, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Finally, note that the 'over' checks in 4-3 in this matchup so far this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark with the 'over' in the first game of this two-game set in Utah on Monday as the Jazz cruised to a 110-99 victory. Now we're dealing with an even lower posted total and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play. Note that the 'over' has gone 22-11 the last 33 times the Spurs have come off a road loss with those contests totaling an average of 231 points. The 'over' has also gone 9-1 with the Spurs coming off at least four straight losses over the last two seasons with that situation producing an average total of 233.1 points. The Jazz check in averaging an impressive 120.6 points per game when playing at home off a double-digit home win, as is the case here, with that situation producing a total of 226.5 points on average this season. Finally, note that San Antonio averages 117 points per game when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 226.6 points. Utah will be without Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley again here, but I'm still anticipating a relatively high-scoring affair, noting that five of the last nine meetings in this series have gone 'over' the total with three of the last four eclipsing the number we're dealing with tonight. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-21 | Golden Knights v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 104 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Wild have now seen the 'over' cash in six straight games but I look for a different story to unfold on Wednesday night. Note that the 'under' is 3-2 in the last five meetings between these two teams in Minnesota and 7-4 in their last 11 matchups overall. This one sets up well as a potentially low-scoring game following Monday's wild (no pun intended) 6-5 result. The 'under' is 9-1 the last 10 times the Knights have played on the road following a road game where both teams scored at least three goals, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.8 goals. We've certainly seen Vegas tighten things up after a poor defensive showing in recent years as it has given up just 2.0 goals per game with the 'under' going 13-5 with an average total of just 4.6 goals when playing on the road after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. It's a similar story for the Wild as they've given up just 1.5 goals per game after allowing three goals or more in four consecutive games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-21 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 9 | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Houston and New York at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We saw last night's game between these two teams creep 'over' the total thanks to a seven-run outburst from the Yankees. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Astros send Luis Garcia to the hill against Jordan Montgomery. Garcia has perplexed opposing hitters in the early stages of his MLB career, posting a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He's also recorded a .184 opponents batting average in 32 1/3 big league innings not to mention a better than average 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage. Working behind Garcia is an Astros bullpen that entered last night's action having recorded a collective 1.71 ERA over its last seven games. Jordan Montgomery is off to a bit of an up and down start for the Yankees this season. There are some positives to take away, most notably Montgomery's 46.7% ground ball percentage and .214 opponents batting average. For his career, Montgomery has recorded a 34.2% hard-hit ball percentage, 4.5% lower than the MLB average. The Yankees bullpen has been elite this season with a collective 2.30 ERA entering last night's action. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-21 | Giants v. Rockies UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
MLB N.L. West Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Francisco and Colorado at 3:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a pair of high-scoring games between these two teams in yesterday's double-header at Coors Field, totaling 16 and 14 runs. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however. Logan Webb gets the nod for the Giants. He's been effective so far in his third big league season, recording a 32.9% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate, having posted a 58.5% ground ball percentage. That's not to mention a solid 22.8% strikeout percentage, which would be a career-high. Jon Gray has been even better for the Rockies. A former top-six Rookie of the Year candidate in 2016, Gray has been in excellent form through six starts this season, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Gray has recorded a 30.3% hard-hit ball percentage and a 50.0% ground ball percentage. After posting a home run percentage 3.0% or higher in each of the last three seasons he's got that number down to 2.1% so far this season while holding opposing hitters to a collective .213 batting average. While neither bullpen is anything to write home about, I'm confident the starters can do enough to help keep this one 'under' the lofty total. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-05-21 | White Sox v. Reds OVER 8 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Interleague Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Chicago and Cincinnati at 12:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a lopsided result between these two teams last night as the White Sox cruised to a 9-0 victory. I expect both offenses to take part in today's contest, however, leading to a relatively high-scoring game. Dallas Keuchel will take the ball for Chicago. He turned back the clock and delivered a fine 2020 campaign, finishing fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. He hasn't been able to regain that magic so far this season, despite a few strong outings, posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Keuchel's strikeout rate is down and his walk rate is up. He's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate but he has also recorded a hard-hit ball percentage north of 40%. Perhaps the biggest concern is the fact that he's yet to last beyond the sixth inning in any of his six starts, which should mean we'll see plenty of the White Sox bullpen, which owns an ERA north of five on the road this season. Sonny Gray missed time due to injury at the start of the season and has yet to really round into form, although he is coming off an 11-strikeout performance last time out. He has yet to last through six innings in any of his three starts this season and again that's a concern as the Reds bullpen owns a collective ERA north of six at home this season. We didn't see the slugfest most envisioned in the opener of this series last night as only one team showed up. Here, I look for both to contribute to what should be a high-scoring afternoon at the park. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-04-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 9 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two clubs crept 'over' the total by half a run but I look for a lower-scoring affair on Tuesday night in Oakland. The Blue Jays aren't hitting with much consistency on the road this season, entering this series batting a collective .213 while averaging 3.3 runs per game. The A's haven't been much better at home, entering the series hitting a collective .211 while averaging 4.2 runs per game here in Oakland. We have a matchup of two left-handed starters tonight with Anthony Kay taking the ball for the Jays against Cole Irvin. Kay got roughed up in his season debut but it wasn't all doom and gloom as he did record a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate of 61.5%. I expect him to settle down and do a better job of keeping runs off the board here. Cole Irvin counters for Oakland. The former Phillie has had a tough time out of the gate as well, with his 49.4% hard-hit ball percentage most concerning. I do like the way he has battled, however, actually allowing only 11 earned runs in 27 innings of work. Also encouraging is the fact that he's issued just four walks in those 27 frames. I don't expect him to have all that long of a leash in this one and working behind him is a solid A's bullpen. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-04-21 | Indians v. Royals OVER 9 | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Kansas City at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. PLEASE NOTE: Phil Maton will now get the start for the Indians. The original play on the 'over' stands. Maton owns an exit velocity off opposing bats north of 91 mph and a hard-hit ball percentage above 41% this season. He also owns a walk rate north of 11%. We saw a high-scoring game between these two clubs in last night's series-opener as the Indians prevailed by an 8-6 score. We've now seen at least 14 runs in four of the Royals last five games and at least 10 runs in all five of those contests. I expect more of the same on Tuesday. The Indians will give the start to Sam Hentges after Logan Allen was demoted following his last start. Hentges has yet to prove himself at the big league level after struggling in the minors in 2019. In limited work this season he has recorded an ugly 52.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Opponents are hitting .320 against him and he's already been tagged for three home runs in just 5 2/3 innings of work. Mike Minor has been serviceable for the Royals but isn't a strong candidate to manhandle many opposing lineups. Working behind him is a Kansas City bullpen that has struggled for much of the season, posting an ERA of nearly five. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-21 | Spurs v. Jazz OVER 220 | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between San Antonio and Utah at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are coming off a low-scoring come-from-behind victory over the Raptors on Saturday as they continue to sputter without Donovan Mitchell and now Mike Conley as well. With that being said, I see this as a smash spot for Utah at home against a Spurs squad playing its second of back-to-back games after an overtime loss at home against the 76ers last night. Note that the 'over' has gone 14-5 after San Antonio posts three ATS wins in its last four games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 233.8 points. The 'over' is also 22-9 with the Spurs playing on the road off a loss over the last two seasons, with that spot resulting in an average total of 231.2 points. Meanwhile, Utah averages an impressive 121.9 points per contest when playing at home off a home win this season. Even when factoring in Mitchell and Conley's absences we can still project the Jazz to have a big night offensively against a Spurs squad that has allowed two of its last four opponents to shoot 50.6% or better from the field. It is worth noting that San Antonio has actually been a better offensive team on the road compared to at home, averaging 113.5 points per game on 46.7% shooting in the visitors role. The first meeting between these two teams this season produced 239 total points and the 'over' has cashed in five of the last eight meetings overall. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-21 | Blue Jays v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Toronto and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the A's 7-5 win over the Orioles yesterday but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they welcome the streaking Blue Jays to Oakland on Monday. Steven Matz will take the ball for Toronto, which checks in off a series sweep of the Braves in Dunedin. Matz is coming off a rough outing against the Nationals last week but his overall numbers this season remain strong. Matz has recorded a 36.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 49.3% ground ball percentage, both considerably better than the MLB average. His fly ball percentage does sit north of 30% which is a concern, but perhaps not quite as much of one pitching here at pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum. Matz has improved on both his opponents batting average and his home run percentage this season and I like him in this bounce-back spot on Monday. Frankie Montas has had a couple of brutal outings against the Dodgers and Twins but has been sharp in his other three trips to the hill, working six innings and allowing three earned runs or less in each of those starts. Montas had major command issues in the early stages of his career but had sorted those problems out prior to a down 2020 campaign that saw him issue 3.9 walks per nine innings. He's bounced back strong in that department this season, dropping that walk rate to 2.6 per nine innings. Opponents are hitting .286 off of him and he's recorded a 5.3% home run percentage but I expect some positive regression to the mean in those departments moving forward, noting again two ugly starts have spoiled his overall numbers. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks UNDER 236.5 | 114-123 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Portland and Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Blazers are off to a perfect 4-0 start to their current road trip, scoring 133, 130, 128 and 129 points in the process. I like the Hawks chances of at least slowing them down here in Atlanta on Monday, noting that Atlanta has allowed 96, 103, 104 and 97 points over its last four home games and has allowed just three opponents to shoot 49% or better going all the way back to April 1st. It's certainly worth noting that the 'under' has cashed at a 13-5 clip with the Hawks listed as home favorite this season, with those games totaling an average of just 217.2 points. While the Blazers have been rolling offensively, it's important to give some credit to their defensive play as well. They've held four of their last five opponents to 46.5% or worse shooting from the field. I'm not entirely sure they'll be looking for a track meet here against a rested Hawks squad, noting that Portland will be playing its fifth game in the last seven nights, in five different cities. At the same time, Atlanta will want to take Portland out of its own element and perhaps turn things one into more of a physical affair. The 'under' is 17-13 in Hawks home games this season and I'll call for that trend to continue here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-21 | Ducks v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Anaheim and St. Louis at 8:05 pm et on Monday. The Blues have played 14 consecutive games against teams in the West Division playoff race so a letdown could certainly be in order here on Monday as they return home from Minnesota to host the lowly Ducks. With that being said, I'm not about to back Anaheim in this one. Instead, I'll go with the 'under' as I'm anticipating a relatively low-event contest on Monday night in St. Louis. The Ducks check in off a rare six-goal outburst in a win over the Kings on Saturday. Note that prior to that game, Anaheim had scored a grand total of nine goals over its last seven games. The 'under' has gone 24-9 with the Ducks coming off a win by two goals or more over the last three seasons, with those games totaling an average of just 4.9 goals. Also note that the Ducks average a miserable 1.6 goals per game after winning two of their last three games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Blues check in sporting a 3-12 o/u mark when playing at home after consecutive games where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 4.7 goals. Finally, we'll note that the 'under' has cashed in five straight meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-03-21 | Blackhawks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Carolina at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We missed the mark with the 'under' in the Blackhawks 5-4 loss to the Panthers on Saturday - a game that saw seven goals scored in the final 25 minutes. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the Blackhawks travel to Carolina to face the Hurricanes. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 6-0 with Chicago coming off six or seven losses in its last eight games this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.9 goals. It's also interesting to note that the Blackhawks have allowed just 2.1 goals per game the last eight times they've come off three straight contests where seven or more total goals were scored, with those games averaging just 5.4 total goals. The Canes have posted an 8-15-2 o/u record on home ice this season, where they've allowed just 2.0 goals per game. Carolina has won three straight meetings with Chicago here in Raleigh, with the 'under' cashing in two of those three games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-02-21 | Angels v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Seattle at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series but I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Sunday afternoon in Seattle. Dylan Bundy has gotten off to a terrific start for the Angels this season, picking up right where he left off last year when he finished ninth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting. Bundy has recorded an incredible 30.0% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats this season. After holding opposing hitters to a collective .208 batting average last season he has posted a .221 opponents' batting average this year. Justus Sheffield will counter for Seattle. His numbers aren't nearly as positive as Bundy's but I'm willing to take a flyer on him in a key bounce-back spot here. Note that Sheffield continues to induce ground balls at a solid rate, with a career ground ball percentage of 50.3% - over 7% higher than the MLB average. He has improved on his walk rate in each of the last two seasons, bringing it down to 3.3 walks per nine innings so far this season (the MLB average is 3.8). The Angels are coming off a big night at the dish last night but have generally been quiet, scoring four runs or less in nine of their last 11 games overall. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-02-21 | Orioles v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Baltimore and Oakland at 4:05 pm et on Sunday. The Orioles bats finally woke up and disposed of the A's 8-4 in yesterday's contest, their second straight victory to open the series. I expect to see plenty of offense on Sunday as well as the A's look to punch back against Bruce Zimmermann. We're starting to get a better picture of what to expect from Zimmermann at the big league level after he pitched just seven innings in 2020. Here in 2021 he has worked 25 1/3 innings with opposing hitters batting a collective .320 against him. He has recorded a 44.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 89.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB averages. Zimmermann isn't missing many bats with a 16.2% strikeout percentage not to mention a 30.6% line drive percentage. While the A's have been slumping offensively I do think they can break out against the O's left-hander today. Sean Manaea will get the nod for Oakland. He got off to a rocky start this season but has settled down over his last couple of starts. While he has recorded a stellar 35.4% hard-hit ball percentage so far this season, he has feasted on slumping lineups including Detroit, Minnesota and Tampa Bay in his last three starts. The O's certainly showed signs of busting out with an eight-run performance yesterday (every player in their lineup recorded a hit). Noting that Manaea owns a career hard-hit ball percentage nearly 5% higher than the MLB average, including a 45.2% mark last season, I believe some regression is in order in coming starts. The 'under' is 3-2 in this matchup so far this season but the 'over' has still cashed in seven of the last 11 meetings in the series. The 'over' is also 9-7 in all A's home games this season. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-02-21 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 7 | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Miami and Washington at 1:05 pm et on Sunday. This has the potential to be a pitcher's duel but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' as I feel the total will prove too low. Trevor Rogers had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. However, a closer look does provide some reason for concern. Note that Rogers has recorded a 45.8% hard-hit ball percentage and an inflated 30.5% fly ball percentage - more than 8% higher than the MLB average. He's still managed to keep the ball in the park for the most part, posting a 0.8% home run percentage but some regression to the mean should be in order after he recorded a 3.9% home run percentage last season. Max Scherzer is once again mowing them down with a 32.8% strikeout percentage but like Rogers, he has also struggled to keep the ball on the ground, recording a 22.5% ground ball percentage and 39.4% fly ball percentage through his first 30 innings of work this season. With Rogers having posted a .188 opponents batting average and Scherzer checking in at .204 I believe some regression is in order. On a fine day at the ballpark on Sunday afternoon, I'm anticipating some runs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-01-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 14-6 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and Arizona at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The D'Backs have scored 12 runs in the first two games in this series with last night's game creeping 'over' the total by a single run. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the Rockies send Austin Gomber to the hill against Zac Gallen. Gomber was a big piece coming back to the Rockies in the Nolan Arenado trade and while his overall numbers with his new club aren't great (an ERA north of six and a 1.57 WHIP) there's reason to believe he can get on track. Command has been an issue as Gomber has recorded an inflated 18.5% walk percentage but he's held opposing hitters to a collective .207 batting average (after posing a .190 opponents batting average in limited work with the Cardinals last season) and has done a solid job of keeping hitters off balance, recording a 36.1% hard-hit ball percentage. His fly ball percentage is higher than we would like at 32.8% but again, there's reason to believe he can get that in order noting that his career fly ball percentage sits at 22.9%, slightly better than the MLB average. Here, he'll face a D'Backs lineup that has been held to five runs or less in five of its last seven games. Zac Gallen is a star in the making for the D'Backs. He's off to a tremendous start here in 2021, posting a 2.16 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .138 against him and while he's posted a slightly above-average fly ball percentage, he's done a good job of keeping the ball in the park with a 1.5% home run percentage. The Rockies have scored three runs or less in four of the first five games on their current road trip. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-01-21 | Blues v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between St. Louis and Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We've seen consecutive high-scoring games between these two teams with the Blues prevailing in both. That actually sets us up for a low-scoring affair on Saturday, however, noting that the 'under' has gone 15-4 with the Wild coming off consecutive games totaling seven goals or more over the last three seasons with that situation producing an average total of just 4.9 goals. The 'under' is 12-2 in the same situation with the Blues over the last two seasons with an average total of 4.5 goals. Also note that the 'under' is 16-5 the last 21 times the Blues have played on the road off two or more consecutive 'over' results, as is the case here, with that spot producing an average total of 5.0 goals. The Wild will of course be out for revenge here after dropping four straight meetings in this series. The 'under' is 21-7 the last 28 times the Wild have been in a quadruple-revenge situation with those games totaling an average of only 4.4 goals. There's reason to believe the Wild can tighten things up here, noting that they allow just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Prior to scoring at least four goals in each of their last four games the Blues had been held to three goals or less in 12 of their last 13 contests. Finally, keep in mind the 'under' has still cashed in four of the last seven meetings here in Minnesota. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-01-21 | Panthers v. Blackhawks UNDER 6.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Florida and Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a high-scoring contest between these two teams two nights ago in Chicago as the Panthers rallied to secure a 4-3 overtime victory. Of course, that game would have stayed 'under' the total were it not for Florida tying things up at three goals apiece with 18 seconds remaining in the third period. Note that the 'under' has gone 7-1 the last eight times the Panthers have come off consecutive games where both teams scored three goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 5.1 goals. With the loss on Thursday, the Blackhawks now check in having posted an 8-1 'under' record after dropping five or six of their last seven games this season, with that spot producing just 4.4 total goals on average. We've seen the Blackhawks tighten things up defensively in similar situations this season, allowing just 2.0 goals per game when playing at home off a one-goal loss. While the Panthers are certainly known for their offense, they actually average only 1.2 goals per game after winning six or seven of their last eight contests this season, as is the case here. On the flip side, they're allowing just 2.4 goals per game after giving up three or more goals in three consecutive games this season. Prior to Thursday's result, the last two meetings between these two teams here in Chicago had totaled five goals or less. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
05-01-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
MLB A.L. Central Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Cleveland and Chicago at 4:05 pm et on Saturday. I'm expecting plenty of offense as the Indians and White Sox square off in the second game of their weekend series on Saturday afternoon in Chicago. Triston McKenzie will get the start for the Indians. While he has held opposing hitters to a collective .220 batting average in 16 2/3 innings of work this season, he hasn't pitched well by any stretch. Note that he has recorded a 54.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 94.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. McKenzie has posted a ridiculously low 10.8% ground ball percentage and 40.5% line drive percentage so it should only be a matter of time before that opponents' batting average starts creeping up. The White Sox will welcome the opportunity to face someone other than Tribe ace Shane Bieber here, noting that they've scored at least eight runs in four of their last eight games overall. Lance Lynn will get the start for Chicago. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I am high on Lynn. With that being said, there is some reason for concern here. Note that Lynn has recorded a 41.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both north of the MLB average - while also posting a 29.2% fly ball percentage - nearly six percent higher than the MLB average. Lynn's strikeouts are way up and his walks are way down but we're talking about a very small sample size through just three starts (I realize that goes for all stats mentioned here). We have seen the Indians offense come to life a little bit lately, scoring five runs or more in four of their last five games overall. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
05-01-21 | Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Buffalo and Boston at 1:05 pm et on Saturday. We saw a relatively high-scoring affair between these two teams two nights ago as the Bruins cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'under' has still cashed in five of the last seven meetings here at TD Garden and I look for that trend to continue on Saturday afternoon. After a brief surge, the Sabres offense has gone back in the tank, scoring a grand total of six goals during its current three-game slide. The Sabres average just 2.7 goals per game on the road this season and don't figure to break through against a Bruins squad that allows just 1.9 goals per game when playing at home off a home victory this season. The 'under' has gone 8-2 in that situation with an average total of just 4.5 goals scored. Also note that the 'under' is 8-1 with the Sabres coming off three straight losses by two goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing just 4.9 total goals on average. It's interesting to note that the Bruins average just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home after winning two of their last three games this season - a situation that has come up 10 times previously and produced an average total of only 4.6 goals. The Bruins enter this contest having allowed two goals or less in five of their last six games and three goals or less in nine of their last 10 contests. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Golden Knights v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vegas and Arizona at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams have trended to the 'over' this season but I'll go the other way and back the 'under' as they square off in the desert on Friday night. Vegas has scored exactly five goals in three straight games and has put up four or more goals in seven of its last eight contests overall. I certainly don't feel that level of offensive success is sustainable. Note that the 'under' has gone a perfect 7-0 with the Knights coming off three consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of just 3.4 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 30-17 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive 'over' results, with that spot averaging 5.3 total goals. Better still, the 'under' is 14-4 with the Coyotes coming off consecutive games in which they allowed four goals or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here. That situation has led to an average total of just 4.6 goals with Arizona allowing only 2.2 goals per game. Note that the Coyotes are allowing just 1.8 goals per game when playing at home off two or more straight losses this season. The Knights have of course been incredibly stout defensively on the road this season, where they allow just 2.1 goals per contest. Finally, the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings in this series here in Arizona. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Orioles v. A's UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Baltimore and Oakland at 9:40 pm et on Friday. Neither of these teams are scoring runs with much consistency right now and I don't expect that to change on Friday night in Oakland. Baltimore will hand the ball to former All-Star and A.L. Rookie of the Year runner-up (in 2019) John Means. He's shaken off a rough spring by getting off to a terrific start during the regular season, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP through five starts, covering a span of 30 innings. While Means 27.6% fly ball percentage is somewhat concerning it shouldn't really cost him here in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum. After holding opposing hitters to a .220 batting average last season, Means has been even better here in 2021, posting a .171 opponents BA. Here, he faces an A's lineup that has once again gone cold, plating three runs or less in five straight games and traveling back across the country after wrapping up a series in St. Petersburg yesterday afternoon. Mike Fiers returns to the A's rotation on Friday, despite initial reports that he would pitch out of the bullpen. While it's difficult to predict exactly what we'll get from Fiers here, he's a veteran competitor who's coming off a somewhat disappointing 2020 campaign and I think he wants the ball and wants to show the A's he's still well-deserving of his place in the rotation. It's not as if Fiers was awful last season. His ERA approached five but he still recorded a terrific 33.7% hard-hit ball percentage. He's never been a ground ball pitcher, but again that serves him just fine making the majority of his starts in Oakland. Fiers will face an Orioles club that has scored four runs or less in four straight and seven of its last eight games overall. Take the under (9*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Sharks v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 0-3 | Win | 101 | 15 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Jose and Colorado at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The Sharks have seen the 'over' cash in each of their last four games - their longest such streak of the season. The last time they posted four consecutive 'over' results, their next game stayed 'under' the total in a 4-0 loss at the hands of the Avalanche right here in Colorado. The Sharks check in having scored 13 goals over the course of a three-game homestand. The road hasn't been nearly as kind as they average just 2.7 goals per game away from home this season. Prior to their last three games they had been held to two goals or less in seven straight contests. The Avalanche should be in a foul mood after dropping three straight games at the tail-end of their most recent road trip that included four straight games in in St. Louis. After giving up a whopping 14 goals over their last three games I would certainly look for them to tighten the screws a little bit here. Mikko Rantanen could return from the Covid list on Friday which would obviously give the Avs a boost, but it remains to be seen how much he can contribute in his first game back after an extended layoff. Note that the 'under' has gone 6-1 with the Sharks playing on the road after scoring three goals or more in consecutive games this season with those contests totaling just 4.3 goals on average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies UNDER 225 | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Orlando and Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Boston and Texas at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We saw a relatively low-scoring game between these two teams in the opener of this series last night - the fourth consecutive 'under' result for the Red Sox and the third in a row for the Rangers. I expect a reversal of sorts here as Boston sends Nate Eovaldi to the hill against Koehi Arihara. Eovaldi started his career by doing a tremendous job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he hasn't allowed a single home run. I don't think that trend is sustainable, however, noting that he has recorded a home run percentage of over 4.0% in three of his last four seasons (he missed 2017 due to injury). With that being said, Eovaldi has been solid pretty much across the board this season but he still owns a career .268 opponents batting average and the Rangers bats have been waking up a little bit lately, plating 23 runs in their last five games. I'm willing to take a flyer in the Texas bats against the veteran right-hander here. Kohei Arihara is not off to a great MLB start, having recorded an ugly 53.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats with opponents hitting a collective .268 against him this season. The Red Sox are slumping a bit at the dish right now but this looks like a high-potential for a breakout spot after getting stymied by Kyle Gibson and his ground ball-inducing exploits last night (as I pointed out in my analysis supporting my play on the Rangers +1.5 runs in that game). Arihara has yet to make it through six innings in a start this season so look for the Red Sox to take a confident approach to the plate tonight. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Cubs v. Reds UNDER 9 | 6-8 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Friday. With the Cubs coming off a high-scoring series in Atlanta perhaps it's no surprise that we're dealing with a relatively high posted total in the opener of this series in Cincinnati. Jake Arrieta will get the nod for the Cubs on Friday. He catches the Reds returning home following a six-game trip that took them to St. Louis and Los Angeles. Cincinnati didn't exactly tear the cover off the ball on that trip, plating a grand total of 17 runs. Arrieta's strikeout rate is up and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .214 batting average through 28 innings of work this season. His fly ball percentage leaves a lot to be desired but I'm confident he can get that on track, noting that he's been a solid ground ball pitcher over the course of his career with a 48.5% ground ball percentage, 4.5% higher than the MLB average. Even though he struggled last season, he still managed to post a terrific 51.8% ground ball percentage. Wade Miley continues to impress for the Reds. He's done a tremendous job of keeping opposing hitters off balance this season, recording a 26.2% hard-hit ball percentage and an 81.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. It doesn't get much better than that in those two departments. Not surprisingly, he has also recorded a 55.4% ground ball percentage while holding opposing hitters to a collective .173 batting average. The Cubs bats were hot last night in Atlanta but I'm confident Miley can keep them at bay here (after struggling mightily in his lone start against them - at Wrigley Field mind you - last year). Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-30-21 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Detroit and New York at 7:05 pm et on Friday. We won with the 'under' in the Yankees extra inning loss to the Orioles but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as they return home to host the Tigers on Friday. With the 'under' having cashed in four straight and nine of the Yankees last 11 games overall it's only a matter of time before we see their totals start going the other way and shaded a little too low. I believe that's precisely the situation on Friday. Tarik Skubal will get the start for the Tigers. He had a fine spring but hasn't been able to carry it over into the regular season, posting an ERA north of five and a 1.58 WHIP. Skubal could be in trouble against the homer-happy Yankees here, noting that he has recorded a poor 20.7% ground ball percentage and 41.4% fly ball percentage in 19 innings pitched this season. He now owns a career 6.3% home run percentage - nearly twice the MLB average (albeit with a small sample size of 51 career innings pitched). Gerrit Cole is not surprisingly off to a terrific start for the Yankees. He should have his way with the Tigers but it's worth noting that Cole has recorded a 46.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 92.2 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also posting a 32.3% fly ball percentage - all considerably higher than the MLB average. He has a 0.8% home run percentage so far this season but we should see some regression to the mean in that department moving forward. The 'under' is a perfect 7-0 in Cole's seven career starts against the Pirates but each of his last three outings against them have totaled at least nine runs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-29-21 | Pelicans v. Thunder OVER 230.5 | 109-95 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Orleans and Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. |
|||||||
04-29-21 | Canucks v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | 1-4 | Win | 102 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Vancouver and Toronto at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in the Canucks 6-3 loss in Ottawa last night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go the other way and back the 'under' as they continue their road trip in Toronto on Thursday. This is of course a rematch of two games played in Vancouver last week, as the Canucks returned to the ice following a long layoff following a Covid outbreak and stunningly defeated the Leafs in consecutive games. Since then, Vancouver has gone 1-3 in four games against the Senators, scoring just eight goals in those four contests. Scoring will likely continue to be an issue on this trip as the Leafs are allowing just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season and will certainly be up for this rematch with Vancouver. Note that the 'under' has gone 9-2 with the Leafs seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed four goals or more this season, as is the case here, with those games totaling just 4.6 goals on average. Toronto has allowed just 2.3 goals per game on average when in a revenge situation this season. Of course, it's been a struggle at the best of times for the Canucks when playing on the road this season, where they average just 2.7 goals per contest. Note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last five meetings here in Toronto and nine of the last 11 matchups overall. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-29-21 | A's v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Oakland and Tampa Bay at 1:10 pm et on Thursday. The A's bats have gone cold once again which makes this an opportune time for the Rays to bring up highly-touted left-handed pitching prospect Shane McClanahan for his first big league start. Of course, this won't be McClanahan's first MLB appearance as he got a taste of postseason action last October, making three appearances in the ALDS and World Series. All indications are that McClanahan is ready to make the permanent leap and could actually be fighting for a potential rotation spot should Ryan Yarbrough and Rich Hill continue to struggle. Chris Bassitt will take the ball for the A's. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on Bassitt despite his uneven start to the season. Bassitt finished eighth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and will earn just shy of $5M pitching for the A's this season. After a rocky start, he's settled down, recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball, line drive, ground ball and fly ball percentages. He's always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park and so far this season he's posted a stellar 1.6% home run percentage. Command has been a bit of an issue in the early going but it should only be a matter of time before he works that out, noting that he owns a career walk percentage right around the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-29-21 | Yankees v. Orioles UNDER 9.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Baltimore at 1:05 pm et on Thursday. This has been a relatively low-scoring series, thanks in large part to the absence of the Orioles bats, with the 'under' cashing in each of the last three games. I look for that trend to continue this afternoon as we work with another inflated total. Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for New York. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .190 batting average so far this season while recording better than MLB average hard-hit ball and ground ball percentages. The former A.L. Rookie of the Year Award contender (he finished sixth in voting in 2017) should make quick work of the O's slumping bats this afternoon. Meanwhile, O's starter Jorge Lopez owns an ugly 8.15 ERA and 1.42 WHIP so far this season but it's not all doom and gloom. Lopez has actually recorded a respectable 36.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 87.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 48.1% ground ball percentage. He's been bitten by the home run ball, which has pretty much been par for the course over his big league career, but he has also held opposing hitters to a reasonable .257 batting average. Perhaps he catches a break here with the Yanks fat and happy off consecutive blowout wins on getaway day. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-21 | Coyotes v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Revenge Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Arizona and San Jose at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a wild, high-scoring game between these two teams two nights ago as the Sharks snapped their long losing streak with a 6-4 win on home ice. I'm expecting a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as the two teams wrap up a two-game set in San Jose. The Coyotes have scored four goals in each of their last two games but I'm not sure that level of production is sustainable given they had managed three goals or less in their six previous contests. Prior to potting six goals on Monday, the Sharks had been held to three goals or less in eight consecutive games. Note that the 'under' has gone 15-6 with the Sharks playing at home after losing four of their last five games over the last two seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 5.2 goals. We've also seen San Jose post a 15-33 o/u mark when playing at home after allowing four goals or more in its last game over the last two seasons, with the Sharks averaging just 2.4 goals per game in that spot. Arizona checks in allowing just 2.1 goals per game after giving up five goals or more in a game this season, as is the case here, with that situation totaling just 5.1 goals on average. On the flip side, the Coyotes average just 2.6 goals per game when revenging a loss where their opponent scored four goals or more. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-21 | Rockies v. Giants UNDER 7 | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a pair of high-scoring contests to open this series and we've gone 1-1 backing the 'over' on Monday before missing with the Giants last night. Here, I'll back the 'under' as we should see a well-pitched game between two left-handed starters. German Marquez will take the ball for the Rockies. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 38.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Marquez has always been a good ground ball pitcher and he's been terrific in that regard early this season, recording a 60.8% ground ball percentage - 17.3% higher than the MLB average. His walk percentage is up by I would anticipate some improvement in that department given he owns a career 6.7% walk percentage - 1.8% lower than the MLB average. Alex Wood will continue his comeback for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in as many seasons after getting in limited work over the last two years. Like Marquez, he's been effective in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.6 mph exit velocity. Also like Marquez, he's inducing ground balls at a tremendous rate having recorded a 60.7% ground ball percentage. There's reason to believe he can keep it up as he owns a career ground ball percentage 4.4% higher than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards UNDER 226 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Los Angeles and Washington at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a track meet in Los Angeles back in February as they combined to score 251 points in a Wizards upset win. I'm anticipating a much lower-scoring affair this time around. The Wizards have been beating up on some bad defensive teams in recent weeks. They enter this game having scored at least 117 points in nine straight games but consider that seven of those contests came against the Kings, Pelicans, Pistons, Thunder (twice), Cavs and Spurs - a who's who of the league's worst defensive squads. Here, they'll face a Lakers team that checks in allowing just 104.8 points per game on 45.6% shooting away from home this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11-1 clip. Since getting Anthony Davis back on the floor, Los Angeles has held each of its last three opponents to 48.8% or worse shooting after previously allowing two of its last three opponents to shoot better than 56% from the field. While the Lakers are coming off a 114-point performance against the lowly Magic two nights ago, they've actually been held to fewer than 98 points in six of their last 15 games which can be considered a real streak of offensive futility in today's NBA. Note that the 'under' has gone 14-5 with the Lakers playing on the road off an ATS loss this season with those games totaling an average of just 212.7 points. The 'under' is also 26-13 the last 39 times the Lakers have been seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 110 or more points, as is the case here, with that situation producing an average total of 214.0 points. With Los Angeles revenging a home loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Frank Vogel they've seen an average total of just 215.1 points in 27 previous opportunities. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-21 | Canucks v. Senators OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Vancouver and Ottawa at 5:35 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a low-scoring affair on Monday night as the Senators skated to a 2-1 victory in the third straight meeting between them. The 'under' has now cashed in each of the last three meetings here in Ottawa but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'over' in this early start matchup on Wednesday. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 with the Canucks having lost two of their last three games this season, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. We've also seen the 'over' go 13-5 the last 18 times the Canucks have come off a game where three goals or less were scored, as is the case here, with that spot resulting in an average total of 7.1 goals. While the Senators aren't going to blow the doors off of anyone offensively, they do check in playing fairly consistent hockey in that regard, having scored an average of 3.25 goals per game over their last eight games. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Wednesday. We saw a high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Reds took a second straight game in the series by a 6-5 score. Clayton Kershaw will be tasked with being the stopper for the Dodgers on Wednesday as they look to end a three-game losing streak. After a miserable spring, Kershaw has taken no time at all to round back into form during the regular season, posting a 2.56 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 31 2/3 innings of work. While he's not the dominant pitcher he once was, he is coming off a 2020 campaign that saw him finish ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting and play a big role in the Dodgers World Series championship. Here this season he's back to inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 15.7% line drive percentage. He has held opposing hitters to a collective .218 batting average while recording a terrific 3.2% walk percentage and a 2.4% home run percentage. The Reds will give the nod to Sonny Gray for his third start of the campaign. He missed time in the spring due to injury and is clearly still trying to round into form. I expect that to happen sooner rather than later and note that he has recorded an excellent 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 29.3% strikeout percentage through limited work (8.0 innings pitched) so far this season. Walks have been an issue, just as they always have, but we can certainly anticipate some positive regression to the mean when it comes to his 12.2% walk percentage. Note that despite the 'over' cashing in the first two games in this series, the 'under' remains a solid 29-13 in the Reds last 42 games when priced as a road underdog between +125 and +175, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-28-21 | Manchester City v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Note: I'm recommending a play on the alternate total of 2.5 goals, which should be available at most books. We saw a low-scoring match in the first Champions League semi-final match yesterday as Real Madrid and Chelsea played to a 1-1 draw. Here, I expect a different story to unfold as PSG hosts Manchester City. There was some concern that PSG superstar Kylian Mbappe may not be fit for this match after he was forced to leave the team's last game (after scoring a pair of goals) with a leg injury. All indications are that he is good to go, however, which obviously gives PSG a big boost, and a puncher's chance against an elite Manchester City squad. It's interesting to note that PSG has played very different styles in the first leg compared to the second leg in its last two Champions League rounds. Against Barcelona it racked up four goals in the first leg before playing it smart in a 1-1 draw to win 5-2 on aggregate. Next up against mighty Bayern Munich, PSG put up three goals in the opener before dropping a 1-0 decision in the second leg to advance on away goals. Here, I look for PSG to once again employ an attacking style in the opener against Man City, knowing it isn't built to prevail in a low-scoring affair, and also with its hopes of a Ligue 1 title dwindling, eager to throw everything it has at the drive toward a Champions League crown. You would have to go back to March 13th to find the last time Man City scored more than two goals in a game. With that being said, it has been incredibly consistent offensively in UCL play, scoring 11 goals in its last five matches. I certainly expect Man City to be afforded plenty opportunity to find the back of the net in this one, noting that PSG benefited in the quarters by facing a Bayern Munich squad without Robert Lewandowski (Bayern still managed to score a goal without him in the second leg). Speaking to City's depth up front is the fact that Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus will once again likely be relegated to the bench but could certainly be called upon should it need a spark in this one. I'm anticipating a 2-1 or 2-2 final scoreline here. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
|||||||
04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Detroit and Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It's been a long time coming but White Sox ace Lucas Giolito will finally get his opportunity to bounce back from a miserable performance in his last start in Boston eight days ago as he draws a favorable matchup against a weak Tigers lineup. Despite that ugly outing against the Red Sox on Patriots Day, Giolito still owns tremendous numbers across the board this season. He's kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 34.0% hard-hit ball percentage and an 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His strikeout percentage sits at 32.1% and while you would assume some regression would be coming in that department, keep in mind he has posted a strikeout percentage north of 30% in each of the last two seasons. Opponents are hitting just .230 against Giolito this season, which is pretty much par for the course in terms of his career numbers as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .222 batting average since breaking into the bigs in 2016. Note that the 'under' is 28-14 in Giolito's last 42 starts against division opponents. Jose Urena will counter for Detroit. He had a strong spring with his new club and while things haven't gone superbly through four regular season starts, he has been serviceable at least. I like the fact that Urena is inducing ground balls at a good clip, having posted a 50.0% ground ball percentage and an even more impressive 12.9% fly ball percentage. While he needs to get his walks down, he has improved considerably on his strikeout rate. Going back to last season with the Marlins, opposing hitters have posted a collective batting average right around .240 against him, which is considerably better than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
MLB A.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Seattle and Houston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a low-scoring contest between these two teams in last night's series opener as the Astros cruised to a 5-2 victory. Note that the 'over' is 28-14 in the Mariners last 42 games as a road underdog priced between +150 and +200 with those games totaling well over 10 runs. We've also seen the 'over' cash at a 17-6 clip in the Mariners last 23 night games played on the road. The Astros have now scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and should be able to keep it going against Mariners starter Marco Gonzales on Tuesday. Opponents are seeing the ball well against the Mariners supposed ace, as he's recorded a 42.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 90.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. His 6.3% home run percentage and 8.3 walk percentage spells trouble against an Astros lineup that can mash here at home. Cristian Javier will counter for Houston. His 36.4% strikeout percentage isn't sustainable in my opinion as he comes off a fantastic performance last time out. I do think it's only a matter of time before his 43.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 26.7% ground ball percentage/40.0% fly ball percentage catches up with him, especially pitching here in Houston. After recording an ugly 5.1% home run percentage in 54 1/3 innings of work last season he's yet to allow a home run here in 2021. Expect that to change on Tuesday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-27-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
MLB A.L. East Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Baltimore at 7:05 pm et on Tuesday. We saw a relatively low-scoring affair between these two teams in the opener of this series last night. I expect a different story to unfold on Tuesday as the Yankees send Corey Kluber to the hill against Bruce Zimmermann of the Orioles. Kluber is clearly on the downside of what has been a tremendous career. He's posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.93 WHIP through four starts. Most concerning is his 30.4% fly ball percentage and 4.1% home run percentage, especially as he prepares to pitch at hitter-friendly Camden Yards on Tuesday. Kluber's command just hasn't been there since the start of the 2019 season, due to injuries and otherwise. He checks in with an ugly walk percentage north of 15% through four starts this season. Zimmermann has been average at best as a back-end of the rotation starter for the Orioles. Like Kluber he has also posted a worse than MLB average fly ball percentage at 23.5% while inducing ground balls at a poor rate (38.2% ground ball percentage this season). His career home run percentage sits at 5.0% compared to the MLB average of 3.4%. Again, not a good sign as he faces a homer-happy Yankees lineup at Camden Yards. Over the course of Zimmermann's brief big league career, opposing hitters own a collective .269 batting average and .481 slugging percentage against him. Note that the 'over' is 43-26 in the Yankees last 69 division games away from home and 45-29 in the Orioles last 74 games as a home underdog priced +125 or higher. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-27-21 | Royals v. Pirates OVER 8 | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Kansas City and Pittsburgh at 6:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Royals didn't need a lot of offense to sweep the light-hitting Tigers over the last four days but I look for their offense to come to life in Tuesday's Interleague series-opener in Pittsburgh. Jakob Junis gets the start for Kansas City. While he owns a solid 3.71 ERA and 1.18 WHIP it's probably only a matter of time before we see those numbers inflate considering he has recorded a 52.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 93.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. To put it simply, Junis isn't fooling opposing hitters in the early going this season. While his strikeout rate is up, so is his walk rate. Opponents are hitting a collective .230 against him but we can anticipate some regression in that department as he owns a worse than MLB average career opponents' batting average of .271. Tyler Anderson makes his fifth start of the season for the Pirates. As we've noted before, Anderson is pitching for his third club in as many seasons. He's not an awful pitcher by any means but certainly can be taken advantage of by what I would consider an above average Royals lineup. Note that Anderson owns worse than MLB average career numbers in terms of opponents batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage and that has held true in the early going this season. He hasn't induced ground balls at better than a 38.9% ground ball percentage since back in 2017 (the MLB average is 43.5%). Expect plenty of offense at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-27-21 | Twins v. Indians UNDER 8 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Minnesota and Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Tuesday. Last night's series-opener between these two teams found it's way 'over' the total thanks to a walk-off two-run home run from the Indians in extra innings. That's quite simply a risk that has to be factored in these days in MLB (we lost in a similar situation with the Reds hitting a two-run home run in extras against the Dodgers last night, spoiling our 'under' bet). Here, I'm anticipating another well-pitched game. Kenta Maeda has gotten off to a surprisingly horrible start to the season after a terrific spring. The numbers aren't pretty but I'm confident in Maeda's ability to bounce back, noting that he finished second in A.L. Cy Young Award voting last season and also finished third in N.L. Rookie of the Year voting as a member of the Dodgers back in 2016. There is some reason for encouragement as Maeda has recorded a better than MLB average walk percentage at 5.7% so far this season. Opposing hitters are batting a collective .354 against him but we're bound to see some regression as he owns a career .225 opponents' batting average. He should benefit from facing a relatively light-hitting Indians lineup on Tuesday. Aaron Civale will counter for the Indians. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I've been high on him all season. With that being said, he couldn't make an early 3-0 lead stand up in his most recent start against the Yankees. Here, I look for a positive response from Civale, noting that he has recorded a 33.8% hard-hit ball percentage and 84.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a better than MLB average 44.6% ground ball percentage. Civale's walks are up but so are his strikeouts (slightly) and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .161 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-21 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Monday. Cincinnati got off to a strong start offensively this season but has fallen into a deep slump during a seven-game slide, scoring four runs or less in five of those games. On a positive note, Reds starter Tyler Mahle has seemingly been getting better with each passing year and through four starts here in 2021 has put it all together for a tremendous start to the campaign. Mahle has recorded a 33.3% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. After opposing batters hit a collective .198 against him in 47 2/3 innings last season, they're hitting a paltry .130 against him this season. While Mahle's command has been a bit of an issue with an 11.3% walk percentage, he has made up for it by posting an incredible 38.8% strikeout percentage. While some regression is certainly in order in that last department, he does catch the Dodgers in a favorable spot here off an emotional series against the Padres following a wild 8-7 extra innings loss last night in which they blew a late 7-1 lead. Julio Urias will be asked to get the Dodgers back on track on Monday and he would appear to be the right one to do it. Urias had a terrific spring and he's picked up right where he left off during the regular season, posting a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through four starts. He's not doing it with smoke and mirrors either, as he's recorded an incredible 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's improved on both his strikeout and walk percentages, albeit with a relatively small sample size, and has held opposing hitters to a collective .211 batting average. For his career, opponents are hitting just .232 against him, nearly 20 points lower than the MLB average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-21 | Rockies v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
N.L. West Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Colorado and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Monday. The 'under' in San Francisco probably looks like a pretty safe place to put your money at the start of a new week, after all the Giants have posted a 2-7-1 o/u mark at home this season and we already saw a three-game series between these two teams here in San Fran deliver three consecutive 'under' results earlier this season. I'm going to go the contrarian route here, however, noting that we have a very average pitching matchup with Austin Gomber against Anthony DeSclafani and with both teams getting their second look of the season against those starters. Gomber continues to struggle with his command at the big league level, recording an inflated 17.2% walk percentage in the early going this season, moving his career percentage to 11.5% - nearly 3% higher than the MLB average. He has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance with a 30.8% hard-hit ball percentage but I'm concerned about his 38.5% fly ball percentage and we're bound to see some regression to the mean when it comes to his .143 opponents batting average so far this season. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has been hit hard to the tune of a 48.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's never been what you would call a ground ball pitcher but so far this season has recorded a ground ball percentage north of 58%. He's been a little less effective with each passing start, however, and I look for him to face a significant challenge against a Rockies club that has been surprisingly tough at the plate lately, scoring five runs or more in five straight and seven of their last nine games overall. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks UNDER 215 | 118-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Phoenix and New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. This is a very low total by today's NBA standards but it's warranted in my opinion. The Suns don't get enough credit for their defense. They check in allowing just 108.4 points per game on 46.1% shooting this season but will need to refocus after a real flat performance in Brooklyn yesterday, allowing 128 points in a lopsided defeat. Note that the 'under' has gone 19-9 with the Suns coming off an 'over' result, as is the case here, over the last two seasons. Perhaps yesterday's lull was to be expected as they simply couldn't ratchet up the intensity following a two-day layoff which came on the heels of three games in four nights on the road against the Bucks, 76ers and Celtics. I do expect a solid bounce-back performance here, noting that Phoenix has allowed just 106.6 points per game following an ATS loss this season. Despite its defensive exploits, New York has seen the 'over' cash in six of its last seven games overall. Keep in mind, it has held five of seven opponents to fewer than 110 points over that stretch, which is an accomplishment by today's NBA standards. The Knicks check in allowing 105.6 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. The 'under' has gone 19-9 the last 28 times the Knicks have come off an outright win as an underdog, as is the case here as they were inexplicably +1 against the Raptors on Saturday. That situation has produced just 109.4 total points on average over the last two seasons. With the Suns eager to get on a plane to head home at the end of a tough five-game road trip and the Knicks rested and ready playing their fifth game of a six-game homestand following a day off on Sunday, I'm not anticipating any sort of track meet on Monday night. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-21 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Chicago and Atlanta at 7:10 pm et on Monday. It's been a case of 'feast or famine' with both of these offenses in the early going this season and I'm expecting runs to come at a premium in Monday night's series-opener in Atlanta. Cubs starter Zach Davies is off to a rough start with his new club which is somewhat surprising after he looked dominant at times in the spring. He labored through his first outing against Atlanta this season, allowing four earned runs on seven hits over four innings. Note that despite Davies' poor performance that game still stayed 'under' the total. Davies' three career starts against Atlanta have all stayed 'under'. There are positives for Davies to draw on here as he has posted a better than MLB average line drive percentage at 22.8% and a respectable 22.8% fly ball percentage. Davies hasn't been a true ground ball pitcher since the early part of his career but his ground ball percentage falls right around the MLB average this season. He catches a break here with the Braves still having a tough time stacking strong performances at the plate, scoring five runs or less in seven of their last eight games. Like Davies, Braves starter Charlie Morton also had a terrific spring and he's off to a fine start to the regular season as well, although there is still room for improvement. Morton is a true ground ball pitcher and has recorded a 48.3% ground ball percentage and 15.5% fly ball percentage through four starts. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opposing hitters to a collective .235 batting average. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-21 | Hawks v. Pistons OVER 217 | Top | 86-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between Atlanta and Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We cashed our free play on the 'under' in the Hawks upset win over the Bucks last night (we also won our premium play on Atlanta) but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'over' as Atlanta heads to Detroit to face the Pistons on Monday. While losing Trae Young to a knee injury certainly struck a serious blow to the Hawks offensive prospects, the cupboard is by no means bare, as we saw in last night's come-from-behind victory over the Bucks. With the likes of Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Huerter and Lou Williams, the Hawks are still a formidable offensive squad and they should be able to have their way with the Pistons, who are in for some regression after holding their last two opponents to 46.2% and 41.7% shooting. Note that Detroit has still allowed three of its last five opponents to shoot 48.8% or better from the field. It has had no answers for the Hawks in a pair of meetings this season, giving up 128 and 123 points. Note that the 'over' has cashed in six of the last eight meetings in this series. While I do have a lot of respect for the Hawks defense, as I noted in my analysis of yesterday's plays on Atlanta and the 'under', this is obviously a letdown spot playing their second of back-to-backs in a very winnable matchup with the Pistons. I'm not sure we'll see the Hawks bring the same level of defensive intensity we saw against the Bucks last night. Note that Detroit shot just 40.6% from the field but still managed to score 109 points in an up-tempo affair in Indiana two nights ago. I'm expecting another fairly fast-paced contest here, noting that the Pistons have had little success slowing the pace of their opponents, yielding at least 92 field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. The 'over' has gone 16-6 with the Pistons coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 222.3 points. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in having allowed 119.2 points per game following consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 231.3 points. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-26-21 | Avalanche v. Blues UNDER 6 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
NHL West Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Colorado and St. Louis at 7:05 pm et on Monday. We've seen three straight relatively high-scoring affairs between these two teams with 7, 6 and 8 total goals scored. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring contest as the Avs and Blues wrap up their three-game set in St. Louis. Note that you would have to go all the way back to February 2nd and 4th to find the last time the Blues posted consecutive 'over' results on home ice. While they certainly haven't been great defensively, they do check in having allowed four goals or less in seven consecutive games, which is encouraging after they had given up five goals or more four times during their previous 12-game stretch. The Avs are obviously in a prime bounce-back spot here but since we're looking at the total, consider that the 'under' has gone a perfect 5-0 the last five times Colorado has played on the road off a loss, with those contests totaling an average of just 4.2 goals. We've also seen the 'under' go 19-9 the last 28 times the Avs have played on the road revenging a loss against an opponent, with those games reaching an average total of 5.3 goals. For their part, the Blues have posted an 18-30 o/u record when playing at home following a game where seven or more total goals were scored over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 5.5 goals. While the last three games here have been high-scoring, the 'under' is actually 26-20 in the last 46 meetings between these two teams here in St. Louis. While Colorado's explosive offense is concerning, especially in a foul mood off a loss, it's worth noting that the Avs are still missing one of their top offensive threats in Mikko Rantanen as he deals with Covid protocols. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Night Baseball Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 7:05 pm et on Sunday. This has been a low-scoring series save for last night's 'over' result, and I'm anticipating another well-pitched game in Sunday's series finale. Joe Musgrove will take the ball for the Padres. He of course grabbed headlines a couple of weeks ago by throwing the first no-hitter of the season. While he suffered a bit of a letdown in his next start against his former team, the Pirates, he has bounced right back since and checks in sporting some terrific numbers through four starts this season. Musgrove has done a terrific job of keeping the ball down in the zone and inducing ground balls, recording a 51.9% ground ball percentage and 17.3% fly ball percentage this season. While we're bound to see some regression to the mean at some point as he's held opposing hitters to a collective .124 batting average, I will point out that Musgrove does own better than MLB average career numbers in terms of home run, strikeout and walk percentage. Here, he faces a Dodgers club that has scored three runs or less in six of its last seven games, topping out at five over that stretch (in last night's game). Dustin May will counter for Los Angeles. Remember, he finished fifth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting last season but for now is overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler in the Dodgers stacked rotation. May is off to a fine start here in 2021. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and he's held opponents to a collective .217 batting average. While he has posted a worse-than-average hard-hit-ball percentage of 42.1%, I'm not overly concerned as he's inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 50.8% ground ball percentage and 15.8% fly ball percentage. The Padres scratched together six runs in Friday's victory but have been held to four runs or less in five of their last six games overall. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NHL East Division Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Philadelphia at 6:05 pm et on Sunday. We were fortunate to get a 'push' with the 'over' in the Devils 4-2 loss in Pittsburgh yesterday. I'll come right back with the same play on Sunday as New Jersey draws a more favorable matchup to possible snap its nine-game losing streak, and certainly to pad its stats offensively. While the Devils have been losing game after game, they haven't had too much difficulty scoring goals, putting up 15 goals in their last five contests. They probably deserved more than two goals in yesterday's affair as they fired 36 shots on goal in the loss. Here, they draw a Flyers squad that has allowed at least four goals in four of its last seven games and gives up an average of 3.4 goals per game on home ice this season. Note that the Devils have averaged an impressive 4.3 goals per game when playing on the road off three or more straight road losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. New Jersey has all but throw in the towel defensively, allowing at least four goals in six straight and 10 of its last 12 games overall. Not helping matters has been the absence of defensemen P.K. Subban and Ty Smith. The Flyers are well-positioned to bust out here noting they average 3.4 goals per game after being held to one goal or less in their last game over the last two seasons. On the flip side, Philadelphia has given up a whopping 4.3 goals per game when playing its third game in four nights this season with that situation producing 6.8 total goals on average. We won with the 'over' when these two teams last squared off here in Philadelphia on March 23rd as the Devils stole a 4-3 victory. Expect a similarly high-scoring affair on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers UNDER 235.5 | Top | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'under' between Memphis and Portland at 4:10 pm et on Sunday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams on Friday night as the Grizzlies outlasted the Blazers by a 130-128 score - easily eclipsing the total. We're dealing with an even higher total this time around and I believe it will prove too high in Sunday's rematch. Note that the 'under' has gone 17-4 the last 21 times the Grizzlies have come off a game that totaled 245 points or more, with that situation producing just 219.4 total points on average. We've also seen the 'under' cash at a 28-10 clip after the Grizzlies allow 120 points or more over the last two seasons, with an average total of just 220 points in that spot. While the Grizzlies are certainly rolling along offensively, I'm not sure they want to tempt fate with another track meet here in Portland. A slower pace may serve them well here, noting that Portland is not an elite shooting team by any means, having shot 49.0% or worse from the field in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies shot a blistering 53.1% on Friday night, but will be playing their sixth game in the last 10 days, in five different cities, on Sunday afternoon. The Blazers have responded favorably following poor defensive efforts recently. After allowing an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field, they've held their next opponent to 44.2%, 35.3%, 45.3% and 44.3% shooting going back to late March. Note that the 'under' has gone 8-1 after the Blazers score 120 points or more in a game this season, with that situation producing an average total of just 219.5 points. While the 'over' has now cashed in three straight meetings in this series, the 'under' is actually 2-1 in the last three matchups here in Portland. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-21 | Bruins v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 109 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
NHL on NBC TV Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Boston and Pittsburgh at 3:05 pm et on Sunday. When these two teams last met on they combined to score 12 games in a wild 7-5 Bruins victory in Boston back on April 3rd. Here, I'm anticipating a lower-scoring affair as the scene shifts to Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon. Boston got caught flat-footed in its last game, suffering a 6-4 loss against the lowly Sabres. Keep in mind, that loss came after the Bruins had easily handled the Sabres in their previous two games. The 'under' has gone 25-10 with the Bruins coming off consecutive 'over' results over the last three seasons with those contests totaling an average of 5.3 goals. The Bruins average 2.9 goals per game in that situation but could be hard-pressed to reach that here against a Pens squad that allows just 2.3 goals per game on home ice this season. Boston could be without top line center Patrice Bergeron for this game after he missed Friday's game in Buffalo due to a lower-body injury. Note that the Pens have given up just 2.1 goals per game with the 'under' cashing at an 11-3 clip when playing at home off a win by two goals or more over a division opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here. The 'under' has also gone a perfect 5-0 with the Penguins coming off three straight wins this season, with those games totaling an average of just 3.8 total goals. Pittsburgh's offense has been rolling lately but that's had a lot to do with the level of opposition it has faced as it is coming off five straight games against the Devils and Sabres - two of the league's worst teams. This is by no means an ideal spot as they play the second of back-to-back days against a Bruins team coming off a loss, noting that Pittsburgh has been held to two goals or less in three of six meetings in this series this season. Finally, keep in mind that the 'under' has cashed in three of the last five meetings here in Pittsburgh. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-25-21 | Yankees v. Indians OVER 8 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New York and Cleveland at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. Hitters should welcome the opportunity to tee off on Jameson Taillon and Triston McKenzie this afternoon after getting manhandled by Gerrit Cole and Shane Bieber in last night's 2-1 Yankees victory. Taillon has had a rather uneven career to this point and he's off to a rough start with the Yankees, having posted a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP through his first three starts. The advanced stats point to a struggling pitcher as Taillon has recorded a 47.4% hard-hit ball percentage and a 92.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His ground ball percentage of 35.9% stands nearly 8% worse than the MLB average. Not surprisingly, opposing hitters are batting a collective .283 against him and he's posted a 5.3% home run percentage - 2% higher than the MLB average. Triston McKenzie hasn't been much better for the Indians. He has recorded an ugly 50.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a blistering 92.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. His 7.7% ground ball percentage is among the worst in baseball. Considering his 38.5% fly ball percentage, it's only a matter of time before his already worse than average 3.7% home run percentage inflates. This has been a relatively low-scoring series to this point but I think we're set up for a slugfest on Sunday. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Coyotes v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Saturday. The Kings have somewhat inexplicably seen the 'over' cash in six of their last seven games overall but I'll go the contrarian route and back the 'under' as they host the struggling Coyotes on Saturday. Arizona has lost seven of its last eight games and checks in having scored three goals or less in six consecutive games. We do find the Coyotes in a favorable spot here as they've allowed just 1.7 goals per game the last six times they've come off consecutive home losses, as is the case here, with that situation producing just 4.7 total goals on average. There's little reason to expect an offensive breakout from Arizona, however, as it averages just 2.6 goals per game on the road this season. Despite its extended 'over' run, Los Angeles has actually been held to two goals or less in seven of its last 10 games overall. The Kings average just 2.8 goals per game on home ice this season and score only 2.3 goals per game at home after losing two of their last three contests over the last two seasons with the 'under' cashing at an 18-8 clip. That latter situation has produced an average total of just 5.0 goals. Finally, note that the 'under' has cashed in four of the last six meetings in this series in Los Angeles. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Rangers v. White Sox UNDER 8 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Texas and Chicago at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two teams last night as the White Sox slugged their way to a 9-7 victory. I expect a different story to unfold on Saturday, however. Kyle Gibson gets the start for the Rangers. After struggling through the last two seasons, Gibson turned in a fine spring and that has carried over into the regular season as he's posted a 2.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP through his first four starts. He's not getting it done with smoke and mirrors either. Gibson has kept opposing hitters off balance to the tune of a 29.0 hard-hit ball percentage and an 87.9 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He's also done a terrific job of keeping the ball on the ground, recording a 50.0% ground ball percentage and 16.1% fly ball percentage. While some regression to the mean will certainly come at some point, Gibson has yet to allow a home run this season. White Sox starter Dallas Keuchel hasn't gotten off to as impressive of a start as Gibson this season but a deeper look into his advanced stats provide reason for encouragement. Note that Keuchel quietly finished fifth in A.L. Cy Young Award voting and 17th in A.L. MVP voting last season. Through four regular season starts this year, spanning 19 innings, Keuchel has recorded a 37.7% hard-hit ball percentage and an 85.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. More impressive is his 56.5% ground ball percentage. His strikeouts are down and his walks and home runs allowed are up, but again, his other advanced stats would lend to the thinking that some positive regression should be in order. Note that Texas is hitting just .226 against left-handed starters this season. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in the front half of this two-game set on Thursday night and I'll go back to the well with the same play on Saturday as we're once again set up for a high-scoring affair. Note that the 'over' has already cashed in five of eight meetings in this series this season. The Leafs check in averaging 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.3 goals. Meanwhile, the Jets are averaging 4.0 goals per game when coming off a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons with the 'over' cashing at a 16-5 clip. Those games have totaled an average of 7.0 goals. While the Leafs have been fairly stout defensively on the road this season, where they allow only 2.7 goals per game, they should get everything the Jets have in this one with Winnipeg coming off consecutive losses in which it scored a grand total of three goals, and considering the Jets will be playing just their third game in the last eight nights. Note that Toronto is giving up 4.0 goals per game after losing four of its last five contests over the last two seasons. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Reds v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Cincinnati and St. Louis at 2:15 pm et on Saturday. The Reds have now dropped five games in a row following last night's 5-4 setback in the opener of this series. The 'over' has cashed in all four meetings in this series this season but I look for a reversal of sorts on Saturday afternoon. Wade Miley gets the nod for the Reds. He's been terrific in the early going this season, recording a 28.6% hard-hit ball percentage and a 83.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats, both considerably better than the MLB average. He's also doing a terrific job of inducing ground balls, posting a 57.1% ground ball percentage, more than 13% higher than the MLB average. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down and opponents are hitting just .161 against him. John Gant will counter for the Cardinals. In his sixth big league season, all with the Cards, Gant has a lot to prove. He hasn't gotten off to a great start, largely due to command issues. I do think he can figure it out, and should benefit from facing a slumping Reds club that has scored five runs or less in five of its last six games. Note that for his career, Gant has held opposing hitters to a collective .232 batting average and has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, with a career 2.1% home run percentage, 1.2% lower than the MLB average. Note that the 'under' has gone 48-26 with the Reds check in as a road underdog over the last three seasons. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-21 | 76ers v. Bucks UNDER 230 | 94-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 3:40 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in this matchup on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' in Saturday's rematch in Milwaukee. There are obviously injury concerns for the 76ers after Joel Embiid was forced to leave Thursday's game and Ben Simmons missed it entirely due to an illness he's been battling over the last week. That game started as a track meet but did slow down in the second half with just 104 points scored. We saw some shooting anomalies in that one as Shake Milton was 8-of-14 for 20 points for the 76ers while Bobby Portis came off the bench to shoot 9-of-11 for 23 points for the Bucks. Philadelphia allowed Milwaukee to shoot north of 55% from the field in that game but I expect it to punch back here on Saturday, noting that it has seen the 'under' go a perfect 3-0 the last three times it has allowed opponents to shoot better than 50% from the field. Note that the 76ers have held opponents to 45.8% shooting on the road this season, with the 'under' cashing at a 19-11 clip. The 'over' has cashed in the Bucks last three games, their longest such streak since mid-March. I look for a reversal of that trend here noting that the 76ers have allowed just 107.7 points per game after losing four or five of their last six games ATS over the last three seasons, with those contests totaling an average of just 221.8 points. Also note that Philadelphia averages just 107.0 points per game when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons with those games totaling an average of 219.5 points. Look for today's total to prove too high. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-24-21 | Devils v. Penguins OVER 6 | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 5 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between New Jersey and Pittsburgh at 12:35 pm et on Saturday. This will be the third straight game between these two teams here in Pittsburgh with the Penguins winning the last two by 7-6 and 5-1 scores. I'm anticipating another high-scoring affair on Saturday. The Devils are actually set up reasonably well here as they average 3.9 goals per game when playing on the road following a loss in which they allowed four goals or more over the last two seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.5 goals. We also find New Jersey averaging 3.5 goals per game when playing on the road after allowing three goals or more in three straight games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that spot averaging a total of 6.7 goals. The Penguins have been dominant on home ice this season, where they average 3.8 goals per game. They check in averaging 4.1 goals per game when playing on home ice following an 'under' result over the last two seasons, with an average total of 6.4 goals scored in that situation. Finally, note that the 'over' has gone 20-11 with the Devils seeking revenge for a loss in which they scored one goal or less over the last two seasons. New Jersey is simply playing out the string at this point but it is healthy again, up front at least, with Pavel Zacha and Jesper Bratt returning in the last week. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Marlins v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | 3-5 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Miami and San Francisco at 9:45 pm et on Friday. We saw a low-scoring game between these two clubs in the opener of this series last night and I expect more of the same on Friday. Sandy Alcantara will take the ball for Miami. He's been a steadying presence in the Marlins rotation, in his fourth season with the team. Keep in mind, he was an All-Star two years ago as he posted a 3.88 ERA and 1.32 WHIP but only managed to go 6-14 pitching for what was a bad Marlins team. Alcantara has improved on his strikeout numbers and walk totals in each of the last two seasons and is off to a fine start here in 2021. Note that Alcantara has held opposing hitters to a collective .233 batting average over the course of his career, markedly better than the MLB average of .250. While his hard-hit ball percentage is higher than we would like at 43.5% this season, he's still inducing ground balls at a solid rate with a 46.8% ground ball percentage and 17.7% line drive percentage. Alcantara has always done a nice job of keeping the ball in the park, recording a career 2.6% home run percentage. Alex Wood gets the nod for the Giants. He's pitching for his third team in the last two seasons, including two stints with the Dodgers. I see Wood as a pitcher that has been solid throughout his career, even reaching the All-Star Game and finishing ninth in N.L. Cy Young Award voting back in 2017, but has a lot to prove right now as he earns just $3M with the Giants this season - his lowest salary since back in 2017. Wood was certainly effective in his first start this season, tossing five shutout innings of three-hit ball while striking out four with no walks. He did a great job of tying up opposing hitters in that one, recording a 23.1% hard-hit ball percentage and 81.4 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. He also posted a 61.5% ground ball percentage in that contest. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Canadiens v. Flames OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Montreal and Calgary at 9:05 pm et on Friday. This is the classic 'playoff-like atmosphere' game where many will look to play the 'under' anticipating a tight-checking affair. Perhaps even moreso when you consider just how low-scoring this series has been with the 'under' cashing in five straight meetings in this series since the Habs skated to a 4-2 victory in their first matchup of the season back in late January. I believe this one sets up as a relatively high-scoring affair, however, as the Habs shook out of their offensive slump with a 4-3 win over the Oilers two nights ago and the Flames should play a high-energy game in desperation mode off consecutive losses in which they scored just three goals. Note that the 'over' has gone 23-10 with the Flames at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 7.2 goals. The Canadiens have allowed 3.1 goals per game off a win this season while the Flames average 3.3 goals per contest after giving up four goals in their last game over the last two seasons. Finally, note that the Flames have given up 3.3 goals per game when playing at home off three or more straight 'under' results over the last three seasons, with that spot producing an average total of 6.4 goals. Both teams are in their preferred situation from an offensive standpoint with the Habs averaging 3.1 goals per game on the road and the Flames putting up 3.1 goals per game at home. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Diamondbacks v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
MLB National League Non-Division Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Arizona and Atlanta at 7:20 pm et on Friday. The D'Backs are coming off an offensive explosion against the Reds yesterday and I'm confident we'll see them do plenty of damage at the plate again on Friday night in Atlanta. The question is whether they'll be able to keep pace with the Braves, who are in good position for a bounce-back performance offensively against Luke Weaver of the D'Backs. Weaver had an awful spring and he's struggled in the early going in the regular season as well. In 16 2/3 innings of work, Weaver has recorded a 48.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 93.0 mph exit velocity off opposing bats - both well north of the MLB average. He's never been much of a ground ball pitcher and that has held true so far this season as he's posted a 30.0% ground ball percentage (compared to the 43.5% MLB average). While Weaver's walks are down, his home runs allowed are up significantly as he's been tagged for an average of around one every four innings so far this season. The Braves got off to a slow start at the plate this season and were held down in a well-pitched series against the Yankees in New York earlier this week, but do check in having scored at least five runs in eight of their last 12 games overall. Huascar Ynoa will take the ball for Atlanta. Like Weaver, he had an awful spring and has been hit hard in the early stages of the regular season as well. Ynoa has recorded a 55.0% hard-hit ball percentage and a 91.5 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. While his strikeouts are up considerably and his walks are way down compared to last year, we're dealing with such a small sample size that some regression to the mean is almost certainly in order. While not much was expected from the D'Backs this season, they've been on quite a tear offensively, scoring five runs or more in 10 of their last 12 games overall. Note that the 'over' has gone 11-2 in the Braves last 13 games as a home favorite priced -150 or higher with those games averaging 12.5 total runs. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Seattle and Boston at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Mariners +1.5 in last night's outright win in extra innings. Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'under' as I feel this total will simply prove too high. Keep in mind, while last night's series-opener managed to get 'over' the total that was only thanks to extra innings. Neither of these teams have been tearing the cover off the ball over the last few games and I look for more of the same on Friday. Yusei Kikuchi will take the ball for the Mariners. Throw out a poor rookie campaign in 2019 and Kikuchi actually owns better than average numbers in most key advanced stat categories we like to look at. That includes strikeout percentage and home run percentage over the last two seasons, with Kikuchi holding opposing hitters to a collective .237 batting average. While Kikuchi has predominantly been a ground ball pitcher that hasn't really held true in the early going this season, but we're talking about a small sample size. Veteran Martin Perez will counter for Boston. He's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball in recent years but there is reason for encouragement in the early going this season. Perez has done a terrific job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 29.5% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats in 13 2/3 innings of work this season. Like Kikuchi, he has generally been a ground ball pitcher over the course of his career, but has yet to really settle in here in 2021. We have, however, seen him improve on his home run, strikeout and walk percentages compared to last season, albeit with a small sample size. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-23-21 | Yankees v. Indians UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
MLB American League Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The Indians plated three runs in the first inning of last night's game before their bats went silent the rest of the way in a 6-3 loss. I'm anticipating another relatively low-scoring affair on Friday night as the Yankees send Jordan Montgomery to the hill against Logan Allen. Montgomery hasn't pitched a full season at the big league level since finishing sixth in A.L. Rookie of the Year voting in his rookie campaign back in 2017. However, he has put together a pretty solid resume when he has managed to get out there. For his career, Montgomery has been better than the MLB average in terms of opponents batting average, walk percentage, hard-hit ball percentage, opponents' exit velocity off the bat and line drive percentage - many of the key advanced stat categories we like to look at. So far this season he has recorded a terrific 30.2% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.3 mph exit velocity off opposing bats while also improving on his career strikeout and walk percentages. He should benefit from facing an Indians lineup that just hasn't been able to score with much consistency in the early going. Logan Allen will counter for Cleveland. Since being cast aside by the Padres in 2019, Allen has been serviceable for the Indians. Like Montgomery, he's off to a fine start in 2021, having recorded a 31.4% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.7 mph exit velocity while doing a tremendous job of inducing ground balls with a 57.1% ground ball percentage. Allen has generally done a good job of keeping the ball in the park and this year has been no different as he's given up just one home run in 12 innings of work. That's obviously a key against the slugging Yankees here. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Padres v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between San Diego and Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We played the 'under' in this same pitching matchup last week and we weren't close as that game sailed over the total with the Dodgers eventually winning in extra innings. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here, however, as the scene shifts to Los Angeles on Thursday night. The Padres aren't hitting right now. They had the bases loaded with no one out with a chance to possibly tie or take the lead in the ninth inning against the Brewers yesterday and couldn't even cash in a single run. Here, they'll face one of the best pitchers in baseball in Walker Buehler. Buehler is still working out the early season kinks but his command is there having posted a terrific 1.4% walk percentage through 18 innings of work - a considerable improvement, albeit with a small sample size, over his career average. Buehler is also inducing ground balls at a good clip, having recorded a 42.1% ground ball percentage. Note that the 'under' is 18-5 in Buehler's last 23 night starts here at Dodger Stadium with those games totaling an average of just 6.8 runs. Rookie Ryan Weathers will make his second big league start, with both coming against the Dodgers. He held his own through 3 2/3 shutout innings against them last week, allowing just one hit and striking out three while walking two. Note that the Dodgers are hitting just .195 against left-handed starting pitching in the early going this season. Through 9 2/3 big league innings, Weathers has been largely effective, limiting opponents to a .100 batting average while recording a 45.0% ground ball percentage. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Mets v. Cubs UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 102 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between New York and Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. We saw a wild, high-scoring affair between these two clubs last night as the Cubs slugged their way to a 16-4 victory. Here, I look for a return to 'normal' as New York sends Joey Lucchesi to the mound against Trevor Williams. Neither starter's numbers will jump off the page but I'm anticipating a reasonably well-pitched game at Wrigley Field on Thursday. Lucchesi was cut loose by the Padres following 2+ very average seasons. We don't have a lot to go on here this season as Lucchesi has made just two appearances, spanning only five innings of work. With that being said, he has done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 35.7% hard-hit ball percentage and 85.7 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Keep in mind, Lucchesi had a terrific spring, posting a 2.77 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 13 innings of work. Perhaps a change of scenery will be a positive for the right-hander. Trevor Williams is another starter changing places this season, moving to Chicago after five seasons with the Pirates. His early returns this year have been mixed but I am encouraged by his 54.5% ground ball percentage and miniscule 6.8% fly ball percentage. His walks are up, but so are his strikeouts (slightly). Like Lucchesi, he's also done a nice job of keeping opposing hitters off balance, recording a 38.6% hard-hit ball percentage and 86.8 mph exit velocity off opposing bats. Williams should benefit from facing a Mets club that has scored four runs or less in nine of their last 10 games. Take the under (10*). |
|||||||
04-22-21 | 76ers v. Bucks OVER 225 | Top | 117-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Philadelphia and Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a defensive slugfest (by today's NBA standards) that totaled just 214 points and saw both teams shoot right around 40% from the field. I don't expect to see anywhere close to that level of defensive intensity on Thursday, however, as the 76ers head to Milwaukee to play the second of back-to-back nights after a closer-than-expected loss against the Suns. I say closer-than-expected because the Sixers were without the services of both Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons. Joel Embiid did everything he could to will his team to victory, pouring in 38 points and nearly tying the game on a last-second desperation full-court heave. Here, all bets are off as far as who will be in the lineup for Philadelphia. Harris and/or Simmons could be back but I wouldn't be all that surprised if Embiid sat. Regardless, I'm anticipating a high-scoring affair. The Bucks are coming off a tough 128-127 overtime loss to the Suns three nights ago. They've now allowed their last two opponents to shoot 54.8% and 48.1% from the field and have seen the 'over' cash in six of their last nine games overall, including each of the last two. Note that the 'over' has gone 18-10 in Bucks home games this season. The 76ers have posted a 14-4 o/u record when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. In fact, they've recorded a 32-19 o/u mark off a loss of any kind over that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bucks have seen the 'over' cash at a 20-10 clip after a game in which they score 120 points or more this season, with those contests totaling an average of 236.3 points. We're working with a much lower posted total than we saw in the last meeting between these two teams. That has a lot to do with the injury situation for both teams, with Giannis Antetokounmpo also not a certainty to play on Thursday (he's currently listed as probable). Regardless who plays and who doesn't, I'm anticipating a high-scoring contest. Take the over (10*). |
|||||||
04-22-21 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Toronto and Winnipeg at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up well for a high-scoring affair as the Leafs and Jets are both in bounce-back mode on Thursday night. Toronto is coming off stunning back-to-back losses against the Canucks, who were coming off a long layoff due to a Covid outbreak within the team. We do find the Leafs in good position to rebound here, noting that they average 3.8 goals per game after losing five or six of their last seven contests over the last three seasons. They also average an identical 3.8 goals per game when revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, with that situation producing 7.3 total goals on average. The Jets are coming off a 3-0 shutout loss on home ice against Edmonton on Saturday. Perhaps that poor showing was to be expected as they were returning home following a successful five-game road trip on just one day of rest - a situation they had previously struggled in this season. Here, we note that the Jets average 4.0 goals per game following a home loss against a division opponent over the last three seasons, with that situation producing an average total of 6.9 goals. Winnipeg has been a terrific bounce-back team this season, averaging 3.9 goals per game off a loss. Also note that the Jets average a whopping 4.7 goals per game the last seven times they've come off a shutout loss. While the 'under' has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two teams in Winnipeg, the 'over' checks in 6-5 in the last 11 matchups in the series. Take the over (10*). |