Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-14-22 | Real Madrid v. Mallorca OVER 2.5 | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Mallorca and Real Madrid at 4 pm et on Monday. We were involved in Mallorca's most recent match, cashing with Celta Vigo in a 4-3 thriller (thanks to a last minute penalty). Here, I'll switch gears and back the 'over' as Mallorca hosts Real Madrid, which is off a thrilling victory over Paris-Saint Germain in Champions League action last week. Mallorca is in tough right now, with limited options other than a struggling Sergio Rico at keeper due to injuries and suspensions. Not only that but Mallorca's back line of defense is struggling mightily and will now have to face a Real Madrid squad that is brimming with confidence after Karim Benzema's second half hat trick against PSG. Note that this will be Mallorca's first shot at Real Madrid at home since back in 2019, when it pulled off a 1-0 stunner. Since then, Real has had its way in two meetings in this series, winning 2-0 and 6-1 in the host role. Given its vulnerabilities at the back-end, I'm sure Mallorca is well aware that it will need to find a goal (or two) to have any chance at coming away with a much needed point at least in this match. Sitting just two points clear of relegation, gaining something productive from this match is critical for Mallorca. While Real Madrid could elect to sit back and play for a 1-0 or 2-0 victory here, I think we see a different story unfold. Note that five of the last seven matches between these two squads have produced 'over' 2.5 goals. Take the over (6*). |
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03-13-22 | Rennes v. Olympique Lyonnais OVER 2.5 | 4-2 | Win | 102 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Lyon and Stade Rennes at 12:05 pm et on Sunday. Lyon is fresh off a stunning 1-0 'away' win over Porto in Europa League action earlier this week. It had to hang on for that critical victory as it was peppered throughout the match but ultimately escaped with a clean sheet. I'm not convinced it will be so fortunate to keep Stade Rennes off the scoreboard on Sunday. Note that Rennes took the most recent meeting between these two sides by a 4-1 score. I certainly expect a revenge-minded Lyon squad to put forth a much better effort here, likely improving on that one-goal performance. But can it keep the Rennes offense at bay? The visitors have put up an impressive 10 goals across their last three Ligue 1 matches, most recently kept silent back on February 11th against mighty PSG. We've seen a couple of interesting trends in this particular series with Rennes going three consecutive matches against Lyon without posting a clean sheet but also managing to be 'first to score' in four of the last five meetings. I'm anticipating plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (8*). |
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03-11-22 | St Etienne v. Lille OSC OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and St-Etienne at 3 pm et on Friday. Lille has been involved in its share of low-scoring contests lately but did bust out with a 4-0 victory over Clermont last time out and that's certainly something it can build on here as it hosts St-Etienne with eyes on one of the coveted top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table. Of course, St-Etienne is in a different battle entirely as it tries to avoid relegation, currently sitting just one point clear of 18th-place Lorient. St-Etienne is coming off a 1-0 victory over Metz last weekend in a match that wasn't really as close as the final score indicated. The margin likely could have been 3-4 goals were it not for a lack of execution or simply bad luck as St-Etienne carried the play and fired 13 shots at the Metz goal with five of them reaching target (not to mention a couple of posts). Concerning for St-Etienne here is the absence of a number of key defenders in a match it was going to have its hands full in regardless with Lille striker Jonathan David snapping his goal drought last time out and poised to build from that here. With both teams showing encouraging signs in their most recent match, and both desperate for points, albeit for much different reasons, I look for St-Etienne's trend of both teams scoring (four of its last five) and 'over' 2.5 total goals being scored (also four of its last five) to continue on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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03-10-22 | Crvena Zvezda v. Rangers UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Rangers and Red Star Belgrade at 3 pm et on Thursday. We won with Rangers in the first leg and the 'over' in the second in the Scottish side's stunning upset over Borussia Dortmund (which was missing Erling Haaland) in the last stage of this tournament. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the 'under' as I expect a much tighter affair to play out. Red Star enters this match on the heels of three consecutive clean sheets. In its last three 'away' matches in Europa League action it has only managed to find three goals while conceding only twice - both of those allowed goals coming in the second half. Rangers of course exploded for six goals in its two matches against Dortmund. I do think they'll have a much more difficult time breaking down Red Star, as strange as that may sound given Dortmund's stature in European football. In a matchup that could very well come down to 'away goals', I suspect we'll see both sides tighten up here, with neither having faced defeat in quite some time (Rangers are undefeated in their last nine while Red Star has won six matches in a row). Take the under (6*). |
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03-09-22 | Olympique Lyonnais v. FC Porto OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between FC Porto and Olympique Lyon at 12:45 pm et on Wednesday. If this were the second leg of this matchup, perhaps this total would make some sense. I don't believe it does in the first leg, however, as both squads possess plenty of firepower and will be looking to stake their claim on Wednesday. I see massive advantages up front for Portuguese powerhouse Porto in this one. The addition of Galeno - who sits tied atop the Europa League goal-scoring list with Karl Toko Ekambi of Lyon - coming over from Braga to add another dimension, not always even finding a place in Porto's starting XI, indicates the depth and talent the Portuguese side can turn to. Porto has gone 18 consecutive matches without a loss across all competitions and should be in good position to keep that streak intact here. With that being said, Lyon does pose a threat. The French side has actually seen eight of its last 10 matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals but should be drawn into a firefight here, noting that both teams have found the back of the net in six of Porto's last seven contests. Lyon has scored an incredible nine goals in its last three 'away' matches in Europa League play. If there's a weakness on Porto's squad its at the back-end and with Dembele and Ekambi ambitious in attack, I'm confident Lyon can find at least one goal in this contest. Take the over (10*). |
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03-08-22 | Inter Milan v. Liverpool -175 | 1-0 | Loss | -175 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liverpool over Inter Milan at 3 pm et on Tuesday. |
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03-08-22 | Salzburg v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
Champions League First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Salzburg surprisingly carried a 1-0 lead into halftime in the first leg of this Champions League matchup. In fact, it carried that lead all the way into injury time in the second half before Bayern Munich was able to equalize. I expect a much different story to unfold on German soil on Tuesday. Interestingly, Bayern Munich has seen a grand total of just three goals in its last two matches - both coming in Bundesliga play against Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen. Most expected a wave of goals in its most recent contest against Leverkusen but that sort of affair never came to pass. I do think the potential is there for plenty of fireworks in this one, however. We saw Bayern pour it on late in an effort to equalize in the first leg and I'm confident we'll see some carry-over from that performance on Tuesday. Salzburg has conceded four goals in its last three 'away' matches in Champions League play with three of those coming in the first half. Meanwhile, Bayern has netted a whopping 13 goals in its last three 'home' Champions League contests - six in the first half. Bayern will obviously be difficult for Salzburg to break down but I'm not about to completely dismiss the young and talented Austrian side. It enters this match on the heels of a 4-0 rout of SC Rheindorf Altach on Saturday. Note that while it has found the back of the net only twice in its last three 'away' Champions League matches, both of those goals came in the first 30 minutes. I think Salzburg will be well aware that it won't be able to hold Bayern at bay for as long as it did in the first leg. It is likely going to need to find at least two goals in order to have any hope of advancement in what would be a monumental upset. Regardless how this one plays out, I believe we're well-positioned to cash the first half 'over' as we either see Salzburg put Bayern back on its heels with an early goal, or the home side strikes and then the floodgates open as they often do at Allianz Arena. Take the first half over (10*). |
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03-07-22 | Levante v. Ath Bilbao UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between Athletic Bilbao and Levante at 3 pm et on Monday. Yesterday we saw a wild, high-scoring La Liga match between Celta Vigo and Mallorca as we cashed with Celta in a 4-3 win. Here, I'm not expecting much in the way of offensive fireworks as Athletic hosts Levante with the first meeting between these two squads this season having resulted in a 0-0 draw back in November. I'm not convinced Levante will find many offensive opportunities in this match, let alone goals. It has scored just 12 times in 13 'away' matches in La Liga play this season and goes up against an Athletic squad that has conceded only 13 times in 12 'home' contests. Athletic's back line has performed reasonably well but the results haven't been there as it has dropped consecutive matches, first in La Liga play against Barcelona (0-4) and then in Copa Del Rey action against Valencia (0-1). Needless to say, scoring has been a bit of an issue, somewhat lacking in the dynamic talent department up front. Levante should offer plenty of opportunity for Athletic to bust out of its scoring slump but whether the latter can take full advantage remains to be seen. Note that Levante does bring terrific defensive form into this contest, having yielded just one goal in its last three matches, despite two of those three contests coming against the likes of top-10 sides Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo. Here, we'll note that each of the last five matches between these two sides have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals. With Levante going winless in the last eight meetings it will simply be looking to hang on for a point here as it continues to fight its way out of the La Liga basement (and potential relegation). Take the under (10*). |
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03-06-22 | Mallorca v. Celta de Vigo -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
La Liga Game of the Year. My selection is on Celta Vigo over Mallorca at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed with Celta Vigo two matches back as it gave up a late goal in a 1-1 home draw against Levante. It followed up that disappointing draw with a loss, held off the scoresheet entirely in a 2-0 away loss against Atletico Madrid. Here, I'm confident we'll see the home side bounce back and deliver its first victory in four matches. Mallorca sits 16th in the table, just four points clear of relegation. While it could desperately use at least a point out of this match, it will be hard pressed to earn it given the fact that it hasn't managed to score a single goal in its last two contests and comes in on the heels of three consecutive losses. Note that Mallorca has managed to score only 10 'away' goals in 12 matches this season, conceding 27 along the way. Celta Vigo on the other hand has been air tight defensively at home, giving up only 16 goals in 13 matches. With keeper Dominik Greif again sidelined for Mallorca it will have to turn to struggling keeper Sergio Rico once again. This is a spot where I look for the Celta offense to 'get right' and help the squad earn a critical three points as it looks to close the gap on 9th and 10th placed Valencia and Osasuna, respectively. Take Celta Vigo (10*). |
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03-05-22 | SpVgg Greuther Furth v. VfL Bochum -124 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Bundesliga Game of the Year. My selection is on Bochum over Gruether Furth at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Bochum hasn't been able to regain the magic it found in its massive upset win over Bayern Munich back on February 12th, going winless in three matches since including a 2-1 loss to Freiburg in DFB Cup action last time out. This looks like an excellent opportunity for it to get back on track as hit hosts last-place Greuther Furth on Saturday. Furth sits at the bottom of the Bundesliga table, five points back of 17th-place Stuttgart entering Saturday's action. To make matters worse, it has claimed just one point in 12 'away' matches this season. While Bochum has been first to concede in six consecutive matches, this is a favorable matchup as Furth has managed to score just six first half goals in 12 'away' matches this season while conceding 15. All told, Furth has yielded a whopping 44 goals away from home this season while Bochum has done a tremendous job of protecting its own goal at home, giving up just 11 goals in 12 matches. Winless in its last three matches and with a very difficult slate ahead this is a key spot for Bochum, which can potentially move inside the top-10 with a victory on Saturday. With Furth all but set to be relegated, it can likely only hang its hat on playing the role of spoiler against the big boys in the Bundesliga in the coming weeks. I'm not convinced it gets up for this one. Take Bochum (10*). |
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03-04-22 | Sevilla v. Alavés UNDER 2 | 0-0 | Win | 105 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Deportivo Alaves and Sevilla at 3 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams are coming off relatively high-scoring La Liga affairs last weekend with Sevilla securing a thrilling 2-1 victory over Real Betis and Deportivo Alaves sharing the points in a 2-2 draw against Getafe. Here, I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as these two squads kick off the new La Liga week. I fully expect both sides to come out with their guard up in this one, noting that both Alaves and Sevilla have managed to strike first in four of their last five matches, respectively. With that being said, Sevilla has had little trouble controlling proceedings in recent meetings between the two Spanish sides, going undefeated in the last nine matches, scoring first in five of the last seven. In fact, Alaves has gone nine consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet in this series. With relegation a distinct possibility for the first time in a number of years, this is without a doubt a key match for the home side, which has found some success in the hosts role this season. If Alaves are to come away with a point, they're likely going to need to keep this one scoreless for as long as possible, noting that Sevilla has been incredibly stingy, allowing only 18 goals in 26 La Liga matches this season. Finally, we'll note that eight of the last 10 matches between these two sides have totalled less than 2.5 goals. Take the under (6*). |
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03-02-22 | Real Sociedad v. Mallorca UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Mallorca and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Wednesday. A key match for both of these sides as Real Sociedad looks to draw into one of the coveted top-six spots in the table while Mallorca tries to distance itself further from potential relegation. Neither side has been all that inspiring lately and I'm anticipating just such an affair on Wednesday. Mallorca has gone 11 matches without posting a clean sheet and will be hard-pressed to break that streak here but I do think we see it put forth a valiant effort. Note that Mallorca has allowed just 12 goals in 13 home matches in La Liga play this season. On the flip side though, Mallorca has also only scored 13 goals in those 13 home matches. Considering Sociedad hasn't yielded a single goal in its last four dates with Mallorca (all victories), it's likely to be tough sledding offensively for the home side in this one. Take the under (6*). |
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02-28-22 | Cadiz CF v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Week. My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Cadiz at 3 pm et on Monday. With home side Granada having gone winless in its last seven matches and currently sitting only three points clear of relegation and four points above today's opponent Cadiz, I'm anticipating a cagey affair between these two on Monday. A draw certainly wouldn't be the worst result for either side and for that to happen, I suspect the match will be of the low-scoring variety. Note that we've seen each of the last five matches in this series total 2.5 goals or less. Cadiz has gone undefeated in its last five matches with Granada so we know that despite its struggled in La Liga play this season, it can hold its own in this matchup. With Granada having gone six matches without posting a clean sheet, and with plenty of extra preparation time for this match, I am confident that it can hold down the Cadiz offense, however, noting that the latter has managed only 12 goals in 12 'away' matches this season. Take the under (10*). |
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02-28-22 | Sampdoria v. Atalanta OVER 2.75 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Atalanta and Sampdoria at 2:50 pm et on Monday. |
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02-26-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals over Bayer Leverkusen at 9:30 am et on Saturday. The Bielefeld bandwagon, while not all that full to begin with, was effectively cleared following a 2-0 away loss against Hoffenheim back on February 13th. We did see the German side rebound with a 1-0 blanking of Union Berlin last time out, however, and I believe it can give Leverkusen a good run on Saturday as well. Note that Leverkusen has now gone an incredible 13 matches without recording a clean sheet. In other words, there will be plenty of opportunity for Bielefeld to get on the board in this one. It has actually been first to score in four of its last five matches overall, not to mention the fact that it has found the back of the net in six of its last eight matches against Leverkusen. The 'away' side has actually taken all three points in five straight matches between these two including a 2-1 result in favor of Bielefeld on this field last March. While Leverkusen is comfortably inside the top-six in the Bundesliga table, Bielefeld is still fighting to avoid relegation, sitting just three points clear of 16th-place Augsburg. I expect Bielefeld to go all out to potentially salvage a point, if not more from this match. Take Arminia Bielefeld +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-25-22 | Rennes v. Montpellier UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Montpellier and Stade Rennes at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm anticipating a cagey start between these two French sides on Friday with a lot on the line ahead of this clash at Stade de la Mosson. Stade Rennes currently holds down one of the coveted conference league qualifying top-five spots in the Ligue 1 table but by the slimmest of margins. It sits just two points clear of AS Monaco. Note that while today's opponent Montpellier sits in ninth position, that leaves it only three points behind Les Rennais, certainly ratcheting up the importance of this clash. Here, we'll note that Stade Rennes has allowed a grand total of just three first half goals in 12 'away' matches in Ligue 1 play this season. For its part, Montpellier has given up seven first half strikes in 13 Ligue 1 'home' contests. All signs would seemingly point to an early Stade Rennes goal in this contest given its penchant for achieving such not only recently, but in this particular series. However, giving me pause to that notion is the fact that Montpellier hasn't conceded a first half goal in any of its last four matches overall. Two early goals allowed put Montpellier virtually out of contention for the three points the last time these two squads met last November (that one ended 2-0 in favor of Les Rennais). The fact that the rematch will play out on its home turf should assist in keeping Montpellier level in this particular contest for considerably longer. Take the first half under (5*). |
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02-25-22 | Norwich City v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Norwich City at 3 pm et on Friday. We missed with the 'over' in Southampton's most recent match as it could only find two goals in a blanking of Everton. Here, I think we see things open up a little more with Norwich City looking to pull off the stunner against a rolling Southampton side on Friday. We can be all but assured that Southampton will find the back of the goal in this contest, noting that it has done so in 11 straight matches across all competitions. However, it's also worth mentioning that both sides have scored in eight of Southampton's last nine matches overall. While Norwich City finds itself sitting at the bottom of the EPL table, five points back of safety from relegation, it has shown some promise in recent weeks and months. Despite its scoring problems overall this season it has actually managed to find the back of the net first in five of its last six contests. Unfortunately in this particular matchup, it has failed to strike first in five consecutive meetings, with four of those five matches going 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's no reason to raise our level of concern too high should this one get off to a slow start, noting that Norwich has incredibly conceded 27 of its 53 goals this season in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its matches. Meanwhile, Southampton has allowed 22 of its 37 goals in the second half. Take the over (8*). |
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02-25-22 | Elche v. Levante UNDER 2.5 | 0-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Levante and Elche at 3 pm et on Friday. We've been involved in a few recent matches involving Levante and Elche, most recently suffering a tough loss fading Levante in a match were it struck very late to earn a 1-1 draw against Celta Vigo. Meanwhile, we won with the 'over' in Elche's most recent contest - a 2-1 win over Raya Vallecano one week ago. Here, I'm not anticipating much in terms of offensive fireworks. We've seen five of the last six meetings in this series total less than 2.5 goals and I'm anticipating more of the same. This has the makings of a rather uneventful affair for Elche, which currently sits in no man's land in 14th spot in the La Liga table, nine points clear from relegation but 10 points back of a coveted top-six place. As for Levante, despite its recent modest success, it is still in last place, nine points behind the safety of the 17th spot. It has managed to score just 13 goals in 12 home matches this season while Elche has the very same number of goals in one additional contest away from home. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of its last four matches, Elche will be looking to tighten things up here and might just have the perfect opponent to do so against. Take the under (6*). |
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02-25-22 | Stuttgart v. Hoffenheim UNDER 3 | 1-2 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Hoffenheim and Stuttgart at 2:30 pm et on Friday. I expect both sides to take a rather cautious approach in this one. Hoffenheim holds down one of the coveted top-six spots in the table but is just two points clear of seventh-placed Koln. It certainly wants to take something, if not all three points, away from this very winnable clash on Friday. Noting, however, that it has conceded the first goal in four of its last five matches and hasn't posted a clean sheet in any of its last four meetings with Stuttgart, it will need to be careful not to get too complacent here. On a positive note, Stuttgart has managed only 27 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches this season. For its part it has gone winless in the last four meetings in this series and has been first to conceded in five of its last six contests overall. Having not recorded a clean sheet in any of those most recent six matches, we can be certain where it's concentration will lie in this particular contest. While we won with the 'over' in Hoffenheim's most recent match - a come-from-behind 2-1 win over Wolfsburg last weekend, I believe this particular total will prove too high. Take the under (6*). |
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02-25-22 | Udinese v. AC Milan OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Serie A Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between AC Milan and Udinese at 12:45 pm et on Friday. AC Milan is coming off a surprising 2-2 draw against Salernitana last weekend but should make amends here in what I believe will be a relatively high-scoring contest against Udinese. Udinese simply can't afford to 'park the bus' and hope for the best in an effort to take something away from this match. It sits only three points clear of the bottom-three relegation spots in the Serie A table. On a promising note, it has managed to find the back of the net in six consecutive matchups with AC Milan. In fact, Udinese has been first to score in four of the last five matches between these two sides. That said, the Serie A leading outfit, AC Milan, will be looking to extend its five-match undefeated streak and should have little difficulty doing so against a Udinese squad that has yielded 41 goals in 24 Serie A matches this season. Thanks to picking up only a point in what was an expected victory last time out, Milan still sits atop the Serie A table but only two points clear of both Inter Milan and Napoli, with Inter taking the pitch later today. While the last two meetings between Milan and Udinese have stayed 'under' 2.5 total goals, we've seen both teams find at least a goal in four straight matchups. With the underdog side desperate to earn at least a point and Milan determined to pick up all three, I believe we're well-positioned for goals on Friday. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Sheriff +1.25 v. Sporting Braga | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sheriff Tiraspol +1 goal over Sporting Braga at 3 pm et on Thursday. Sheriff took the first leg of this Europa League clash in stunning 2-0 fashion. The common line of thinking is that Sporting Braga will answer with a victory of its own on its home turf on Thursday. I'm not so easily convinced, however. Sheriff is undefeated in its last five matches while Braga checks in having conceded the first goal in five of its last seven contests. I feel that Braga is vulnerable from midfield back while Sheriff is brimming with confidence starting with Adama Traore up front all the way to keeper Giorgos Athanasiadis, who posted a clean sheet against Braga in the first leg. Expect Braga to face an uphill battle even on its home turf on Thursday. Take Sheriff Tiraspol (7*). |
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02-24-22 | Zenit Petersburg v. Betis OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -135 | 17 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Real Betis and Zenit St. Petersburg at 3 pm et on Thursday. The first leg of this match resulted in a 3-2 victory for Real Betis. It will look to put the matchup to bed with another victory (or draw) on Thursday but I'm not convinced it will come easy. Note that Real Betis has now gone five matches without posting a clean sheet so it's likely we'll see St. Petersburg apply some pressure throughout this one. For its part, Zenit has gone three matches without recording a clean sheet and has also seen five of its last seven contests go 'over' 2.5 goals. Better still, eight of Real Betis' last nine matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals. There's certainly some weakness at the back end for Zenit and Real Betis is more than capable of taking advantage, just as we saw when it struck three times in the first leg. With that being said, I don't believe Real Betis boasts an airtight back end either, with keeper Rui Silva proving particularly vulnerable of late. Take the over (9*). |
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02-24-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Rangers OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
Europa League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Rangers and Borussia Dortmund at 3 pm et on Thursday. No Erling Haaland for Dortmund again for the second leg of this Europa League clash but I don't believe the away side will have any trouble finding the back of the net in a desperate attempt to stave off elimination on Thursday. We won with Rangers in their stunning 4-2 upset win one week ago. They'll obviously be under fire for much of this return match but I'm confident they can come up with some answers as well, helping this one 'over' the total. Note that five of Rangers' last seven matches have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals while each of Dortmund's last 10 contests have gone 'over' that number. Rangers shouldn't be short on confidence as they roll into this one undefeated in their last five matches and having struck first in eight of their last 10 contests. Dortmund is vulnerable at the back end, particularly in goal where keeper Gregor Kobel has struggled mightily in three of his last five matches. Meanwhile, Rangers striker Alfredo Morelos has found the back of the net four times in his last four contests. Expect plenty of fireworks in this intriguing Thursday affair. Take the over (10*). |
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02-24-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Arsenal UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -140 | 17 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Arsenal and Wolverhampton at 2:45 pm et on Thursday. I expect a cagey affair between these two squads that are separated by just two points in the EPL table and well within striking distance of the coveted top-five placement. Arsenal checks in undefeated in its last three matches and has also seen five of its last six contests stay 'under' 2.5 total goals. The Gunners will need to be cautious here as Wolverhampton has opened the scoring in six of its last eight contests. Wolverhampton has failed to post a clean sheet in any of its last 15 matches against Arsenal but we are talking about a different club this season. Wolves have allowed only 18 goals in 24 EPL matches. One of those goals came at the hands of the Gunners just two weeks ago in a 1-0 defeat. This has all the makings of a low-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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02-23-22 | Ajax Amsterdam v. Benfica OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
Champions League Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Benfica and Ajax at 3 pm et on Wednesday. We saw two relatively low-scoring Champions League matches yesterday with both resulting in just two total goals. I expect nothing of the sort in this Round of 16 clash on Wednesday. Benfica knows that goals will be hard to come by when the scene shifts to Amsterdam for the second leg of this match next month. With that in mind, it also realizes that if it wants to have any hope of advancing past Dutch power Ajax, it will need to come up with a tremendous showing in Lisbon on Wednesday. Benfica does enter this match undefeated over its last three contests, also having been first to score in five of its last seven matches overall. Of concern, though, is the fact that it has gone six consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet and will now have to deal with a relentless and powerful Ajax attack that rolls into this contest on the heels of 10 consecutive victories. Of course, the level of competition Ajax has faced does have to be factored in. I think that has buoyed the Dutch squad's impressive goal-prevention ability more than anything else though. Ajax hasn't given up a single goal in its last four matches but I do expect it to concede at least one here. Note that in spite of that air tight defense of late, Ajax has still seen seven of its last eight contests find their way 'over' 2.5 goals. Benfica is certainly accustomed to getting involved in back-and-forth affairs, with each of its last six matches featuring goals from both sides. These two squads have actually met three times since 2014 with Benfica failing to post a clean sheet in any of those matches. It also only managed to score once across those three tilts, but it could be argued that it boasts a great deal more firepower now than it did the last time they met back in 2018. Frighteningly for the Portuguese side, so does Ajax. I'm anticipating plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-23-22 | Cardiff City +0.5 v. Huddersfield Town | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cardiff City +0.5 goals over Huddersfield Town at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. To say that Cardiff City has owned this series would be an understatement. With its 2-1 victory in the last meeting back in November, Cardiff has now gone undefeated in the last 16 matches between these two sides. While it will be facing an uphill battle on Wednesday given that Huddersfield has gone undefeated over its last 15 matches overall, I believe it will be up for the challenge. All of the pressure lies on Huddersfield right now, as it sits just three points clear of seventh-place Sheffield United, currently holding down the second last spot in the Promotion Playoffs. Even a point would certainly go a long way toward improving its chances of locking up one of those coveted six spots. As for Cardiff City, it sits well back in 19th position but can breathe easy at the moment as it is a whopping 15 points clear of the first Relegation place, held down by Derby at the moment. Cardiff has been playing like a team with little to lose lately, securing 13 of a possible 18 points in its last six Championship matches. Interestingly, when factoring in only 'away' matches, Cardiff checks in a respectable 12th in the Championship. Meanwhile, Huddersfield drops to 10th when factoring in only 'home' affairs. Take Cardiff City +0.5 goals (7*). |
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02-22-22 | Lille OSC +1.5 v. Chelsea | 0-2 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Lille +1.5 goals over Chelsea at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Lille goes from being a massive favorite (and falling short in a 0-0 draw) against Ligue 1 opponent Metz last Friday to a significant underdog against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in Champions League action on Tuesday. I'll gladly grab the insurance goal with the French side as it looks to play the role of David against Goliath. Maybe that's a bit too strong of an analogy. After all, there are really no 'Davids' left at this stage of the Champions League. Chelsea enters this match riding a five-match winning streak and undefeated in its last six. With that being said, I wouldn't consider it to be in peak form, noting that it's last four matches have come against relatively weak opposition, including an uninspiring 1-0 away win at Crystal Palace on Saturday. I suspect we'll see Lille sell out to defend for as long as it can in this one, noting that Chelsea has had a tendency to strike first and control its matches, scoring the first goal in five of its last six contests. Lille has conceded only four goals through six Champions League matches - an identical mark to that of Chelsea. The Blues have had the better scoring touch with 13 goals compared to Lille's seven, but I'm not going to count out the French outfit led by Canadian standout Jonathan David. I look for Lille to relish the underdog role on Tuesday. Take Lille +1.5 goals (8*). |
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02-21-22 | Levante v. Celta de Vigo -150 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
La Liga Game of the Month. My selection is on Celta Vigo over Levante at 3 pm et on Monday. While Celta sits in 10th place in La Liga the argument can be made that it belongs higher, noting that it has posted a better goal differential than two of the squads it looks up at in the table in Osasuna and Real Sociedad. It can leapfrog Osasuna with a victory on Monday against bottom-feeding Levante and that's precisely how I see this one playing out. Levante stunned Atletico Madrid 1-0 in its last match, snapping a three-match losing streak. Here, it will challenge a Celta squad that has gone undefeated in its last four matches but will be looking to rebound from a disappointing 0-0 draw against Cadiz. Celta is playing exactly how it wants right now, with four of its last five matches of the low-scoring variety, totalling 2.5 goals or less. Note that Celta enters today's match having conceded just 25 goals in 24 matches in La Liga this season. Compare that with today's opponent, Levante, which has conceded a whopping 50 times in the same number of matches. Speaking of conceding, Levante has conceded in 14 consecutive matches in this particular series. While Levante did post a pair of wins over Celta back in 2019-20, it was aided by the latter having a man sent off in both contests. Since then, we've seen Levante strike only once in its last three matches in this series, going 0-1-2 while being outscored by a 5-1 margin. Take Celta Vigo (10*). |
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02-21-22 | Napoli v. Cagliari UNDER 2.5 | 1-1 | Win | 120 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Cagliari and Napoli at 1 pm et on Monday. We won with Napoli +0.5 goal in its most recent match - a Europa League clash against Barcelona last Thursday. We saw Napoli execute its gameplan to perfection in that match, grabbing a first half lead and sitting on it as long as it could, ultimately coming away with a draw on the strength of that critical 'away goal'. Now it's back to Serie A action against one of the worst teams of the bunch in Cagliari. Currently sitting in 18th position, one point back of Venezia, Cagliari is flirting with relegation right now. It could desperately use a point from this match but to earn that it will need to tighten things up as should it fall behind, it's highly unlikely to level proceedings, noting that Napoli has allowed a grand total of just 17 goals in 25 Serie A contests this season. With that being said, I'm anticipating a rather cagey start to this affair. Note that Napoli enters this match having seen eight of its last 10 matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals. Cagliari has gone 'under' that total in four of its last five contests. Both teams should come in confident with Cagliari edging closer to safety thanks to going undefeated over its last there matches and Napoli avoiding defeat for five consecutive games. If you can find the first half 'under' 1.5 goals that's how I'm playing this one (laying some considerable juice to do so) but 1.0 is playable as well. Take the first half under (6*). |
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02-20-22 | RB Leipzig v. Hertha Berlin +1 | 6-1 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Hertha Berlin +1.0 goal over RB Leipzig at 1:30 pm et on Sunday. Leipzig is on the verge of moving into the top-six in the Bundesliga table but I believe it will be in tough on Sunday against Hertha Berlin. Note that when factoring in only 'away' matches, Leipzig sits a poor 14th in the table with a -4 goal differential. Hertha Berlin enters Sunday's contest having gone winless in its last six matches but should benefit from facing a rather forgiving Leipzig side that has yielded goals in three straight contests. I can't help but feel we're going to see a letdown from Leipzig on Sunday as it comes off of a three-game stretch that saw it face Bayern Munich, FC Koln and finally Real Sociedad in Europa League action. All three matches were hard-fought affairs with Leipzig going 1-1-1. Hertha Berlin hasn't been able to find its footing lately but off a 2-1 away loss against last-place Furth, I look for it to bring its best on Sunday. Take Hertha Berlin +1.0 goal (8*). |
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02-20-22 | Mallorca v. Betis -167 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Real Betis over Mallorca at 12:30 pm et on Sunday. We missed fading Mallorca in its most recent match - a surprising 3-2 win over Athletic Bilbao earlier this week. That result was even more stunning as Mallorca blew a 2-0 second half lead before securing victory in a very late strike. Here, I'm not convinced it will be so fortunate. Real Betis is quietly among the class of La Liga this season, entering Sunday's action sitting third in the table. It enters Sunday's contest on the heels of three straight victories and should feast against one of La Liga's weakest defensive sides. Note that Mallorca has conceded at least a goal in nine consecutive matches - conceding first in seven of those. Betis has more than doubled Mallorca in terms of goal production in La Liga this season with 45 compared to 22. I'm confident it will be able to put this match away in due time, noting that 25 of Mallorca's 36 goals conceded have come in the second half. Take Real Betis (6*). |
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02-20-22 | Leicester v. Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Wolverhampton and Leicester City at 11:30 am et on Sunday. We won with the 'over' in Leicester City's most recent EPL match but I won't hesitate to go the other way as it faces Wolverhampton on Sunday. Note that Leicester has now gone seven consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet. It will need to be particularly careful on Sunday, noting that Wolves have scored the first goal in five of their last seven contests. It's certainly worth noting, however, that Leicester has gone five straight matches in this series without allowing a goal. Each of the last five meetings between these two squads have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. While both teams can certainly use the three points as they try to ascend the EPL table, they can also ill afford to come up empty-handed. Expect both to plot carefully in what I anticipate being a relatively low-scoring affair. Take the under (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Verona v. Roma OVER 2 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between AS Roma and Hellas Verona at 12 noon et on Saturday. This promises to be an entertaining affair between two squads looking to pull closer to the top-six in Serie A by taking all three points in Saturday's game in Rome. Roma will need to keep on its front foot for this one having failed to earn a victory in any of its last three matches. There should be opportunities aplenty for the home side, however, noting that Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in five of their last seven contests with the 'over' 2.5 goals coming through in five of their last six overall. You would have to go back six meetings in this series to find the last time Roma posted a clean sheet against Hellas Verona. Not surprisingly each of the last five meetings have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals. I don't believe either side will be content to 'settle' for a draw in this one and that should lend itself to a relatively high-scoring contest. Take the over (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Watford v. Aston Villa UNDER 2.5 | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Aston Villa and Watford at 10 am et on Saturday. I'm not anticipating much in the way of offensive fireworks as Aston Villa host a very manageable matchup on Saturday in Birmingham. Watford sits just one place above last in the EPL table and doesn't figure to pose a significant threat here having not scored a single goal in its last four matches, with no victories in its last 12 trips to the pitch. Of course, Aston Villa hasn't exactly been getting off on the right foot lately either, conceding the first goal in four of its last five matches. I'm just not convinced Watford has the firepower to take advantage of any Villa short-comings here. We have seen Watford play a more competitive brand of football away from home this season, ranking 16th rather than 19th when factoring in only 'away' contests. Aston Villa has struck just 31 times in 23 EPL matches this season so I do think Watford will fancy its chances of potentially coming away with a low-scoring draw in this one. Take the under (7*). |
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02-19-22 | Everton v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Southampton and Everton at 10 am et on Saturday. With matches in hand on the majority of the squads it looks up at in the English Premier League table, Everton can attempt to make a move but desperately needs all three points from Saturday's away match at Southampton. Interestingly, Southampton enters Saturday's contest undefeated over its last four matches, yet has conceded first in four of its last five overall. You would incredibly have to go back 16 matches to find the last time Southampton posted a clean sheet and I believe it will be hard-pressed to accomplish that feat on Saturday as well. Everton has been involved in its share of relatively high-scoring affairs recently, with six of its last seven matches resulting in at least three total goals. Noting that both combatants have scored in each of Southampton's last 10 contests, we can anticipate another crackling affair on Saturday. While Southampton has generally fallen behind the eight-ball with some consistency lately, it has actually struck first in five of its last seven matchups with Everton. Both teams have found the back of the net in eight of the last 10 meetings in this series but I believe they can do one better on Saturday with one of the two sides capturing the three points. Take the over (8*). |
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02-19-22 | Hoffenheim v. VfL Wolfsburg OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Bundesliga Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Hoffenheim at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Wolfsburg gets an opportunity to continue to climb the Bundesliga ranks as it goes for its third straight victory on Saturday. A win certainly won't come easy against fifth-place Hoffenheim but I do think it has a puncher's chance and that lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair. Hoffenheim is coming off a much-needed 2-0 home win over Bielefield last time out. I expect it to face a far tougher challenge here, however. Note that despite that recent 2-0 victory, Hoffenheim has still seen both teams find the back of the net in eight of its last 10 games, conceding first in six of its last eight contests. Of course, it will be tough sledding for Wolfsburg here when you consider that it hasn't posted a clean sheet against Hoffenheim in any of the last 10 meetings in this series. Not surprisingly, each of the last seven matches between these two squads have gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both teams scoring in each of the last seven meetings. With Hoffenheim looking to stay in the top-six and Wolfsburg aiming to inch closer to the top-10 positions in the Bundesliga, look for plenty of fireworks in this one. Take the over (10*). |
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02-19-22 | Villarreal v. Granada UNDER 2.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Granada and Villarreal at 8 am et on Saturday. Granada will have to be extremely careful in this contest as it is clearly overmatched against Villarreal but might just be able to muck it up enough to come away with a hard-fought point if it plays its cards right. Granada enters this match having lost four matches in a row, failing to score in its last three. It has gone five consecutive matches without posting a clean sheet but is capable of accomplishing such a feat, keeping in mind we saw a 0-0 draw the last time these two squads met last August. Villarreal enters this match undefeated over its last three contests. It didn't allow a goal in any of those matches. Villarreal knows it can control proceedings against Granada - after all, it has gone undefeated in the last 11 meetings in this series. I'm just not convinced we'll see it shake loose offensively with Granada likely falling back into a defensive shell for much of the contest. While we've seen some offensive explosions in this series in the past, those type of affairs have been few and far between. Take the under (7*). |
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02-18-22 | Metz +1.5 v. Lille OSC | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Metz +1.5 goals over Lille at 3 pm et on Friday. I don't have a lot negative to say about Lille. It is the superior squad in this match but I can't ignore the fact that Metz has played a different brand of football away from home this season, not to mention the fact that it proved to be a real thorn in Lille's side the last time these two squads met, scoring a goal in added time to come away with a point in a 3-3 draw. The most impressive part of that point earned was the fact that Metz did so down a man after being issued a red card earlier in the match. Here, we'll note that when factoring in only 'away' matches, Metz checks in ranked 10th in Ligue 1 this season (compared to 19th overall). Meanwhile, Lille has had no significant advantage at home in league play. When factoring in only 'home' matches, Lille sits an identical 10th to its overall record, still with a negative goal differential. It seems that no match is ever over until its over when it comes to Lille, noting that both teams have found the back of the net in six of its last eight matches, not to mention the fact that it has allowed 18 of its 35 goals in the final 15 minutes of either the first or second half in Ligue 1 play this season. Winless in its last three matches, I expect Metz to 'go for it' in this one. Take Metz +1.5 goals (6*). |
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02-18-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Elche OVER 2 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Elche and Rayo Vallecano at 3 pm et on Friday. Neither of these squads are turning heads in La Liga action this season with Raya Vallecano sagging lately to fall all the way to 11th place and Elche sitting even further behind in 14th. With that being said, I'm expecting an entertaining affair between the two on Friday. Vallecano has reason to come out aggressively, having failed to register a victory in any of its last three matches. This is a favorable match for it to break out of its recent funk, noting that Elche has gone three consecutive matches without recording a clean sheet while failing to do so in each of the last six meetings between these two squads. On the flip side, there's reason for Elche to be confident that it can find some success, noting that Vallecano has conceded the first goal in five of its last seven matches, and both teams have managed to find the back of the net in five of the last six matches in this series. While goals haven't necessarily been easy to come by for Elche, it's biggest issue lies at its own end of the pitch, where it has conceded 33 goals in 24 La Liga matches this season. Most alarming is the fact that it has conceded eight goals in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of its league matches, showing an inability to button things up in crunch time. Take the over (8*). |
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02-18-22 | Metz v. Lille OSC OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Ligue 1 Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Lille and Metz at 3 pm et on Friday. I'm fairly high on Lille but not without some hesitation for one particular reason. We've seen it have a difficult time keeping the ball out of its net when it matters most, allowing 18 of its 35 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches in the final 15 minutes (plus added time) of the first or second half this season. While it sits a respectable 10th in the league table, it is the only squad inside the top 11 with a negative goal differential. It could easily take Ligue 1 bottom-feeder Metz (19th overall) lightly in this contest. Note that Metz has gone winless in its last three matches, with a recent tendency to get involved in low-scoring affairs as six of its last seven contests have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. With that being said, I believe Lille can force it into a higher-scoring contest here, noting that both teams have scored in six of its last eight matches overall. Having scored a grand total of just three goals over a difficult three-match slate going back to late January, Lille will be eager for an opportunity to break loose here, and break loose it should considering that Metz has conceded a whopping 45 goals in 24 Ligue 1 matches this season. Speaking of struggling to contain opposing offenses when it matters most, Metz has been lit up for 20 goals in the final 15 minutes of the first or second half this season. Interestingly, though, Metz actually checks in ninth in Ligue 1 when factoring in only 'away' matches, albeit still with a poor -10 goal differential. It has found a way to play reasonably competitive football in hostile environments and should that be the way this one plays out, I believe we'll be in fine shape with the 'over'. Take the over (10*). |
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02-17-22 | Real Sociedad v. RB Leipzig OVER 2.25 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between RB Leipzig and Real Sociedad at 3 pm et on Thursday. RB Leipzig picked up a much needed 3-1 victory over Koln last Friday and should bring plenty of confidence into this home affair against Real Sociedad on Thursday. As for Sociedad, it will likely be happy to get out of La Liga for one match at least as it has managed to win just once in its last three league contests, scoring only two goals along the way. In fact, it has scored a grand total of just two goals in its last four matches across all competitions. I simply feel there's too much talent on this side for that run of futility to be sustainable. I would certainly expect it to find some opportunities against an RB Leipzig squad that will undoubtedly push the pace in this one. Note that Sociedad has seen each of its last two Europa League affairs go 'over' 2.5 total goals. I'm confident that both sides will be willing participants in a high-energy contest here with Sociedad determined to pick up an away goal. Take the over (8*). |
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02-17-22 | Napoli +0.5 v. Barcelona FC | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Napoli +0.5 goals over Barcelona at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. Barcelona has been as inconsistent as they come lately, securing victory just twice in its last six matches. While this may certainly appear to be a favorable bounce-back spot in the first leg against Italian side Napoli, I'm not so sure it will be a walk in the park for Barca. Note that Napoli enters this match undefeated over its last four contests. It has been clinical in its attack, scoring first in six of its last seven contests while leading at the half in five of those matches. As for Barca, it hasn't been nearly as airtight defensively as we've come to expect, allowing the opposition to find the back of the net in six of its last seven matches. Napoli promises to provide a rather stingy challenge here, noting that it has seen eight of its last 10 contests finish with fewer than 2.5 total goals. While Barca is undefeated in the last four matches between these two squads, they haven't met since August of 2020. Barca is obviously a different team now than it was then and I expect Napoli to be up to the challenge on Thursday at Camp Nou. Take Napoli +0.5 goals (8*). |
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02-17-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Borussia Dortmund | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
Europa League Game of the Month. My selection is on Rangers +1.5 goals over Borussia Dortmund at 12:45 pm et on Thursday. We won with the 'over' in Dortmund's most recent match - a 3-0 blanking of FC Union Berlin on Sunday. That was a bit of a surprising result, not that Dortmund managed to collect all three points as that was always a distinct possibility, but certainly that it won by such a lopsided margin, especially with all-world striker Erling Haaland sidelined due to injury. Here, most will expect Dortmund to keep it rolling against a seemingly overmatched side in Rangers but I'm not so easily convinced. Rangers enters this Europa League clash on a roll, having won three matches in a row, not conceding in any of those three contests. Meanwhile, Dortmund, while fresh off a clean sheet of its own has actually seen both teams find the back of the net in six of its last seven matches. I do think there's a path for Rangers to ripple the net at least once in this match. Given the fact that we're dealing with a relatively low total (by Dortmund standards), I believe that lends itself to a tightly-contested affair in the first leg of this matchup (the two teams will meet up again next Thursday in Scotland). Take Rangers +1.5 goals (10*). |
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02-16-22 | Bayern Munich v. Salzburg OVER 2.75 | 1-1 | Loss | -122 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' between Bayern Munich and Red Bull Salzburg at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Bayern doesn't exactly bring its best form into this Champions League match on Wednesday, fresh off a stunning 4-2 away defeat at the hands of Bochum on Saturday. That should only serve to ramp up its focus ahead of this critical contest against a punchy Red Bull Salzburg squad on Wednesday, and I believe it lends itself to a rather fast start in this one. Note that Bayern has been first to score in each of its last seven matches - a scenario I can certainly see playing out once again here. With that being said, we've also seen it have trouble containing opposing attacks, allowing seven goals over its last three matches. Salzburg comes in confident off of three consecutive wins but has proven vulnerable at the back end in Champions League play, having yielded four first half goals to the opposition in its last six UCL matches and it only gets tougher against a BM squad in a foul mood on Wednesday. Of course, Bayern has been clinical in the early stages of Champions League action, scoring nine first half goals in its last six UCL contests. If Salzburg is to have any sort of a chance of keeping within arm's reach of Bayern, it needs to get off to a promising start. Keep in mind, Bayern prevailed by scores of 6-2 and 3-1 in Champions League matches between these two back in 2020, holding a combined 3-1 edge in the first half of those two contests. Salzburg desperately needs to fight fire with fire in this case, as it is highly unlikely that it will be able to contain Bayern for long. I expect plenty of early fireworks between these two on Wednesday. Take the first half over (8*). |
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02-16-22 | Liverpool v. Inter Milan UNDER 3.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' between Inter Milan and Liverpool at 3 pm et on Wednesday. I don't expect either of these sides to give an inch, particularly in the early stages of Wednesday's Champions League clash. To say that Inter Milan has been stingy in the first half in Champions League play would be an understatement. It has given up a grand total of one goal in the first half of its previous six UCL contests. Liverpool has been a little more forgiving, allowing five first half goals in its last six UCL affairs but I'm not convinced Inter will be able to take advantage. Note that Inter has found the back of the net only once over its last six UCL matches. Inter knows it will need to be extremely cautious here in the home leg of this UCL showdown as Liverpool comes in hot, having won six matches in a row - undefeated in its last nine matches overall. Liverpool has also managed to kick off the scoring in each of its last six contests. We were benefactors of that in its most recent match as we backed the Reds in the first half against Burnley over the weekend. Of course, we were fortunate to cash that ticket as Liverpool waited until the waning moments of the first half to finally strike. While there's plenty of offensive punch to be featured in this one, I'm not sure we'll see the action really heat up before halftime, with a 'feeling out' process likely the first order of the day. Take the first half 'under' (6*). |
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02-16-22 | Reading v. Peterborough United OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Peterborough United and Reading at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. Low totals are generally the norm in the English Championship, and sometimes for good reason as we saw in Monday's Blackburn-West Brom match that saw no offensive fireworks whatsoever. I expect a different story to unfold on Wednesday, however, as two desperate sides near the bottom of the table do battle. Incredibly, it's been 20 matches since Reading last posted a clean sheet. With that being said, Peterborough checks in having allowed the first goal in five of its last seven matches. Having been shut out in its last two contests, Peterborough will undoubtedly be looking to take advantage of this mouth-watering matchup, noting that it hasn't been shut out by Reading in any of the last six meetings in this series. In fact, each of the last eight matchups between these two English sides has gone 'over' the 2.5 goal total we're working with on Wednesday. Additionally, both teams have found the back of the net in five of the last six matches between the two. Few squads have been as forgiving as these two this season, with Reading having posted a -24 goal differential and Peterborough considerably worse in that department at -37. The question is of course whether either side has the creativity or punch to break through offensively. Given the matchup, I'm confident they can. The last match in the series came last September with Reading cruising to a 3-1 win. We can anticipate some form of payback from Peterborough here and I believe that lends itself to another relatively high-scoring affair. Take the over (8*). |
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02-16-22 | Levante v. Atletico Madrid OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
La Liga Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Atletico Madrid and Levante at 1 pm et on Wednesday. While I'm not interested in playing a side here with the odds tilted considerably in Atletico's favor, I will make a play on the total as I'm confident we see another relatively high-scoring affair between these two squads, which check in at virtually opposite ends of the La Liga spectrum. You would have to go back seven matches to find the last time Atletico posted a clean sheet. Similarly, it hasn't held lowly Levante off the scoreboard in the last three matches in this series. That includes the last time it hosted Levante almost a year ago to the day, when it was stunned 2-0. Here, I'm confident we'll see Atletico pour it on and Levante figures to serve as an ideal punching bag having lost three matches in a row, not to mention conceding the first goal in four of its last five contests. We've seen a nice run of six consecutive matches involving Atletico finding their way 'over' 2.5 goals. I do believe that Levante can make some contribution in this one as well, noting that it will come in confident having not lost any of its last three meetings with the seemingly superior Atletico side. It's certainly worth noting that the winning side has scored at least three goals all on its own in five of Levante's last seven La Liga matches. The only occasions where we didn't see such a story unfold came in matches against Mallorca and Cadiz, two of La Liga's bottom-six squads (Levante currently sits in last place in La Liga). Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Manchester United OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
EPL Total of the Month. My selection is on the 'over' between Manchester United and Brighton & Hove at 3:15 pm et on Tuesday. We missed with Manchester United as its misery continued with a disappointing 1-1 home draw against Southampton on Saturday. I see this as a fine 'get right' spot, particularly at the offensive end of the pitch but given the Red Devils recent vulnerability at the back-end, I suspect Brighton & Hove will be able to find some success as well. The fact that we're dealing with a relatively low posted total is no surprise. Man U has seen four of its last five matches stay 'under' 2.5 goals while the same can be said for Brighton in five of its last six contests. That's a bit conflicting, however, as both teams have scored in five of Man U's last six matches and seven of Brighton's last eight. Also, in spite of the Red Devils recent struggles, going winless in their last three matches, they've actually managed to score first in seven straight matches and here will face a Brighton squad that tends to play from behind, allowing the first score in five of its last six. In this particular series, goals haven't been all that difficult to come by. In fact, each of the last seven meetings between these two squads has gone 'over' 2.5 total goals with both teams finding the back of the net in five of those contests. You would have to go back eight meetings to find the last time Brighton shut Man U out entirely so again, this looks like a fine 'get right' situation, which lends itself to a relatively high-scoring affair in my opinion. Take the over (10*). |
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02-15-22 | Real Madrid v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid at 3 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these squads are coming off tight, low-scoring affairs with PSG prevailing on a goal in injury time against Stade-Rennes and Real Madrid settling for a 0-0 draw against Villarreal. Of course, in the case of the latter, we know that La Liga is often where quality offenses go to die. Perhaps that's a bit harsh, but 0-0 affairs in Spain are by no means out of the ordinary. Seeing PSG held to just a single goal and needing the full 90 minutes and then some to get it was surprising, however. While we haven't seen these two European powerhouses meet since 2019, there's been a history of thrilling, relatively high-scoring matchups between the two. In fact, each of the last five meetings has gone 'over' 2.5 total goals - the total we're working with on Tuesday (at the time of writing). In four of those five matches we saw both teams find the back of the net, and I expect a similar story to unfold here. Getting away from league play should serve to open things up for both sides after getting bogged down last time out. Note that PSG has had a penchant for taking the reins in its matches, scoring the first goal in four of its last five trips to the pitch. I'm confident it can set Real Madrid back on its heels here as well. An answer should never be far off for Madrid, however, noting that it has excelled in Champions League action, posting a 5-0-1 record to date, scoring 14 goals in the process. Take the over (7*). |
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02-14-22 | Blackburn Rovers v. West Bromwich Albion OVER 2.5 | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between West Brom and Blackburn at 3 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams bring poor scoring form to the table on Monday - a big reason why we're being offered a plus-money return to back the 'over' 2.5 goals. West Brom remains in third-place in the EFL standings but has failed to bulge the twine in its last three matches, losing all three of those games. Blackburn is in a battle to simply remain in playoff contention and has gone winless in its last three matches, failing to score in any of those. With all of that being said, West Brom hasn't recorded a clean sheet in any of its last five matches against Blackburn. Worse still, Blackburn hasn't shut out West Brom in any of the last seven meetings. Each of the last five matches between these two has seen both teams score and five of the last seven have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. Both squads realize the importance of this week-opener. As I mentioned, West Brom sits in third position but the other teams it is contending with at the top of the table have matches in hand so earning three points from this match is critical. Blackburn is in similar position but considerably lower in the table and needs to take something away from this contest in order to improve its playoff prospects. Take the over (8*). |
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02-14-22 | Ath Bilbao +136 v. Mallorca | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Athletic over Mallorca at 3 pm et on Monday. I'll take a shot at the plus-money return with the better side in this contest. Athletic checks in undefeated over is last five matches and faces a vulnerable Mallorca side that has conceded at least a goal in eight straight contests. In seven of those eight matches, Mallorca was the first to allow a goal. In this particular series, it has been all Athletic as it hasn't conceded three points against Mallorca in any of the last nine matches between the two. Noting Mallorca's issues with falling behind, Athletic has also been the first team to score in four of the last five matches in this series. While Athletic has certainly had a tendency to 'draw' in away matches this season, I like its chances of grabbing all three points with a victory on Monday, noting that it can definitely use the points sitting just outside of the top six (four points behind sixth-place Real Sociedad). Mallorca is well out of contention, sitting in 17th place, largely due to a poor -15 goal differential. Take Athletic (7*). |
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02-14-22 | Fiorentina v. Spezia Calcio OVER 2.5 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Spezia and Fiorentina at 2:45 pm et on Monday. I'm expecting goals aplenty in this match as Spezia hosts Fiorentina on Monday. Spezia plays a free-flowing style that tends to afford plenty of scoring opportunities to the opposing side so it's not a big surprise that it sits near the bottom of the Serie A table. Interestingly, it does enter this match having gone undefeated over its last four so there's reason for confidence against a Fiorentina side that is not without its own warts. Fiorentina has been forced to play a man down due to red cards in each of its last three Serie A matches. Note that the 'over' 2.5 goals has cashed in five of its last six trips to the pitch and you would have to go back four matches to find the last time it posted a clean sheet. It should also be confident as a favorite here, however, noting that it has gone undefeated in the last three meetings between these two squads, finding the back of the net in all three of those matches. Expect an entertaining affair between these two teams on Monday. Take the over (6*). |
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02-13-22 | Arminia Bielefeld +1 v. Hoffenheim | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arminia Bielefield +1 goal over 1899 Hoffenheim at 11:30 am et on Sunday. The goal line spread may make some sense at first glance but a closer look indicates the wrong side might even be favored in this one. Arminia is a true upstart in Bundesliga play this season and enters this match having gone undefeated over its last six matches. Meanwhile Hoffenheim is completely out of sorts having lost four in a row. Worse still it has gone 10 matches without posting a clean sheet. That gives us a nice overlay here when you consider Arminia has seen seven of its last nine contests stay ‘under’ 2.5 goals. Also noting that four of the last five matches in this series have totalled two goals or less, I’m comfortable backing the underdog side with an insurance goal in this one. Take Arminia Bielefield +1 goal (8*). |
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02-13-22 | West Ham United v. Leicester OVER 2.5 | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Leicester City and West Ham at 11:30 am et on Sunday. Both of these squads are coming off relatively low-scoring affairs but I look for a different story to unfold on Sunday. Leicester enters this match winless over its last four contests. It has also yielded at least a goal in five consecutive matches. While West Ham has had a tendency to get involved in lower-scoring affairs, that hasn't been the case in this particular matchup as each of the last six meetings have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. For Leicester's part, it has failed to register a clean sheet in each of its last 10 meetings with West Ham. We've consistently seen highly-competitive affairs between these two with both teams finding the back of the net in six of the last seven matchups. Take the over (8*). |
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02-13-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Union Berlin OVER 2.75 | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 4 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Union Berlin and Borussia Dortmund at 9:30 am et on Sunday. Dortmund won't have the services of Erling Haaland for this match and that's a big reason why we're dealing with a total as low as we are. I believe it will prove too low. Dortmund is of course likely going to have to get used to playing without its high-profile striker as he's rumored to be moving on to greener pastures. Here, we'll note that Dortmund has gone six matches without posting a clean sheet and the 'over' 2.5 goals has cashed in each of its last seven contests. On the flip side, Union Berlin checks in off a 2-0 defeat against potential relegation candidate Augsburg. Note that it has conceded at least a goal in eight consecutive matches in this series. That's not to say it has been all that one-sided though as both teams have scored in six of the last eight meetings and five of the last six have gone 'over' 2.5 goals. I'm anticipating another relatively high-scoring affair, even without Haaland in the mix on Sunday. Take the over (8*). |
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02-13-22 | Aston Villa v. Newcastle United UNDER 2.5 | 0-1 | Win | 105 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Newcastle and Aston Villa at 9 am et on Sunday. I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two teams on Sunday. Both squads enter Sunday's contest undefeated over their last three matches. It's also worth noting that four of Newcastle's last five matches have stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. Speaking of 'under' trends, the last 10 meetings in this series have all stayed 'under' 2.5 goals. Interestingly, Aston Villa has gone undefeated in the last five meetings but it doesn't exactly bring tremendous form into this contest, having only managed one victory and two draws in its last six matches. Newcastle on the other hand is coming off a 3-1 win over Everton - its second victory in a row. A letdown could certainly be in order here and it will need to be careful considering Aston Villa has struck first in four of the last five matches in this series. Take the under (9*). |
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02-13-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Tottenham Hotspur -148 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -148 | 3 h 10 m | Show |
EPL First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Tottenham first half over Wolverhampton at 9 am et on Sunday. Spurs are coming off a 3-2 loss to Southampton, the same Southampton team that also proved to be a tough out against Manchester United in a 1-1 draw on Saturday. Tottenham has been consistently inconsistent since the turn of the New Year, alternating wins and losses over its last eight matches. With that being said, I like the way it sets up early in Sunday's away match against Wolverhampton. Wolves check in off a 1-0 loss against Arsenal, it's second straight 1-0 defeat after falling by the same score against Norwich City in FA Cup play. Here, we'll note that Tottenham has incredibly won the first half in eight consecutive matches between these two squads. You would have to go back 13 matches between Spurs and Wolves to find the last time the latter posted a clean sheet. It's a true 'get right' spot for Spurs, and I look for them to at the very least get off to a positive start on Sunday. Take Tottenham first half (10*). |
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02-12-22 | VfL Wolfsburg v. Eintracht Frankfurt OVER 2.5 | 2-0 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' between Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt at 9:30 am et on Saturday. I look for both of these German sides to 'go for it' in Saturday's key fixture at Deutsche Bank Park. Frankfurt is coming off a 3-2 win over Stuttgart and can potentially earn European qualification by picking up all three points in this match on Saturday. That result is certainly well within the realm of possibility against a Wolfsburg side that is simply looking to avoid potential relegation at this point. Keep in mind, Wolfsburg had faced a very difficult slate of matches prior to a win last time out. With renewed confidence there's certainly a window of opportunity cracked here as Frankfurt has been anything but consistent. Frankfurt yielded far more productive scoring chances than the end result showed in that most recent 3-2 victory. That poor defensive form could lend itself to another tightly-contested affair here. Frankfurt will be fortunate to welcome back midfielder Filip Kostic for this match after he missed the victory over Stuttgart due to flu-like symptons. However, it will likely be missing key defender Hasebe due to a rib injury. Kruse and Wind will look to once again find some fruits for their labor on the attack for Wolfsburg. Take the over (9*). |
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02-12-22 | FC Augsburg v. Borussia Monchengladbach -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Bundesliga Game of the Month. My selection is on Borussia Monchengladbach over FC Augsburg at 9:30 am et on Saturday. Monchengladbach was fortunate to come away with a single point in its most recent match against relegation candidate Arminia Bielefield last time out. Now 'Gladbach is in a bit of a pickle itself as it tries to stave off potential relegation - a shocking turn of events after it showed such promise over the last couple of years. Needless to say, gaining three points from this home fixture is imperative. I'm confident we'll see Die Borussen do just that on Saturday. Of course, this won't be an easy match as Augsburg has actually gone undefeated in its last three meetings with Monchengladbach. With that being said, I believe 'Gladbach's focus will be assured given that its next two matches will come against two difficult opponents in Dortmund and Wolfsburg. Augsburg is one of the weakest road sides in the Bundesliga. It has secured victory only once in its last 17 away matches in league/top level tournament action. Take Borussia Monchengladbach (10*). |
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02-12-22 | Southampton v. Manchester United -167 | 1-1 | Loss | -167 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Manchester United over Southampton at 7:30 am et on Saturday. This is a big match for Manchester United after settling for a disappointing 1-1 draw against Burnley earlier this week. The Red Devils jumped ahead 1-0 in that match and appeared to grab a 2-0 lead before VAR overturned the second goal and Burnley went on to equalize early in the second half. It's been an ugly run for Manchester United, falling all the way to fifth place in the Premier League. All is not lost, however. The Red Devils can take a step in the right direction by picking up three points against Southampton on Saturday and I'm confident they'll do just that. Ralf Rangnick made the curious decision to bench Cristiano Ronaldo against Burnley. Needless to say, Ronaldo will have plenty to prove on Saturday. Southampton is coming off a stunning 3-2 victory over Tottenham Hotspur last time out. Collecting another point (or more) in this match is a difficult proposition to be sure. Keep in mind, Southampton was fortunate to come away with three points in that match against Spurs, as the latter seemingly netted the equalizer in the closing minutes before it was called back due to offsides. Even with that win, we're still talking about a squad that sits 10th in the Premier League table. Take Manchester United (6*). |
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02-11-22 | FC Koln v. RB Leipzig -224 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on RB Leipzig over FC Koln at 2:30 pm et on Friday. We're dealing with a fairly steep price here but I believe it could be even higher. Leipzig is coming off a disappointing but not all that unexpected 3-2 loss away at Bayern Munich earlier this week. What is a surprise is the fact that it is currently looking up at today's opponent, FC Koln in the Bundesliga table. Koln has already matched last season's win total with eight and we're only in mid-February. It will face an uphill battle on Friday, however, noting that Leipzig has secured eight of its nine wins on its home pitch, not to mention the fact that Koln will be without one of its top offensive threats in Domenico Modeste. That absence is certainly notable when you consider Modeste has contributed 14 goals this season, with many of them coming at critical moments. Who will be there to pick up the slack and step up on Friday? I'm not even sure Steffen Baumgart has the answer. This might have to be a match where Koln simply takes its medicine and yields three points to a Leipzig club whose best football is still ahead of it. Take RB Leipzig (4*). |
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12-08-21 | Young Boys Bern v. Manchester United -1.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Champions League Game of the Month. My selection is on Manchester United -1 goal over Young Boys at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Changes will be made to the Manchester United side as it has already secured advancement to the next round of Champions League play. That doesn't mean the Red Devils will roll over in this rematch with Young Boys after dropping a 2-1 decision in the reverse match in Switzerland back in September. Keep in mind, Man U grabbed an early 1-0 lead in that match before a red card foiled its gameplan shortly after. Here, the Red Devils will look to gain an ounce of revenge, even if the result means little to them. Young Boys desperately need a win but also some help to book advancement to the next round. They bring poor form to the table having struggled in league play, largely due to a number of key absences due to injury. Even without a number of its regular starts, I'm confident we'll see Manchester United secure victory here as interim manager Ralf Rangnick is determined to see his squad boost its confidence off Sunday's clean sheet victory over Crystal Palace and ahead of a weekend clash with lowly Norwich City in EPL action. Take Manchester United -1 (10*). |
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09-07-21 | Japan -1.75 v. China PR | 1-0 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Japan -1.5 goals over China PR at 11 am et on Tuesday. Japan is a top-25 ranked international squad according to FIFA rankings. It certainly didn't look the part in an absolutely dreadful performance against Oman last time out. Japan suffered a 1-0 defeat in that match, despite being heavily favored heading in. Here, Japan is once again a significant favorite, but this time around, I'm anticipating a much different result. China was completely outclassed by Australia in its last match, suffering a 3-0 setback. It managed just 38% of the possession and didn't register a single shot on goal in the loss. There's little reason to expect much improvement here. Note that the damage could have been much worse last time out had Australia not jumped ahead 2-0 so early and essentially 'parked the bus' from there. Japan isn't likely to ease off the gas with goal differential a consideration off the shutout loss to Oman. A much tougher test awaits against Australia and the Japanese will certainly want to ramp up prior to that match - which comes after another difficult test away from home against Saudi Arabia. If your book offers alternate lines, consider backing Japan at -1.5 rather than the standard -1.75 being offered, ensuring you cash should it win by exactly two goals. Take Japan -1.5 goals (10*). |
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09-06-21 | Mali v. Uganda OVER 2 | 0-0 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.75 goals between Uganda and Mali at 9 am et on Monday. |
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09-05-21 | Kenya v. Rwanda UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 1 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.0 goals between Rwanda and Kenya at 9 am et on Sunday. While Rwanda will be at home for this match, where it has gone undefeated in its last three matches, it will by no means be an easy task as it looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to Mali last time out. Kenya is the considerably higher ranked squad but after earning a point in a 0-0 draw against Uganda, it will simply be looking to carve out a similar result here. In fact, the 0-0 draw would serve both sides just fine on Sunday. That's a good thing as neither squad boasts much offensive firepower while at the same time being fairly difficult to break down defensively. Kenya has gone undefeated in its last five matches and should be the very definition of a 'tough out' away from home in this one. Note that Rwanda hasn't managed to tally a single marker in its last four matches against the Kenyans. This is a low total, even by international soccer standards. I'm not sure the oddsmakers can set it low enough. Take the under (10*). |
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09-02-21 | Iraq v. South Korea -220 | 0-0 | Loss | -220 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Korea over Iraq at 7 am et on Thursday. This will without question be Iraq's toughest test in this World Cup Qualifying round and I expect it to ultimately fall short on Thursday. South Korea is brimming with talent, but perhaps a little overlooked when it comes to ranking soccer super powers. With its stars working their way toward being household names in the English Premier League, Iraq simply doesn't have the personnel to match. For Iraq to stay competitive for 90 minutes on Thursday it will need to bring its 'A' game defensively. While that may very well be the case, I can't help but feel there will eventually be a breakdown and South Korea is well-suited to take advantage. On the flip side, Iraq doesn't boast a whole lot of offensive firepower. It's difficult to envision it finding a marker at any point in this contest. Note that when we last saw South Korea in action in World Cup Qualifying action, it was breezing to three consecutive victories in June, scoring a whopping 12 goals in the process while conceding just one. That one goal allowed came on an early stunner against Lebanon last time out. Keep in mind, that was Lebanon's only shot on target in the entire match. With this match being played in Seoul the Iraqis are at a further disadvantage. The South Koreans that returned to home soil for this contest certainly won't want to leave the pitch without all three points. I'm confident they'll accomplish their goal of getting this stage off to a promising start. Take South Korea (8*). |
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09-01-21 | Netherlands v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -102 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
World Cup Qualifying 1H Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 1.0 goal between Norway and the Netherlands at 2:45 pm et on Wednesday. I'm certain we'll see the Netherlands come in with the mindset that they need to find an early goal in this match as the longer it stays 0-0, the better the chances that Erling Haaland works his magic and pulls off a stunner for the underdog Norwegians. Of course, the Dutch are brimming with talent - that was on full display during Euro 2020, but unfortunately only in the group stage. After making an early exit at the hands of the Czechs (by way of a 2-0 shutout), the Netherlands will be eager to gain a positive result here. This is certainly a favorable matchup as while Norway does boast starpower in Haaland up front, it is not all that deep and should be hard-pressed to contend for 90 minutes. With that in mind, I don't believe Norway has the belief in itself to play for a 0-0 draw in this one. The Norwegians know that they'll need to take some chances in attack if they're to have any chance at stealing a point from the Netherlands. It's not as if the Dutch are invincible - noting that they suffered a 4-2 defeat at the hands of Turkey in World Cup Qualifying back in March. Norway has seen five first half goals in three previous World Cup Qualifying matches this year. Finding an early goal from one, if not both of these sides on Wednesday should not be difficult. I believe two first half markers is well within the realm of possibility. Take the first half over (10*). |
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09-01-21 | Ukraine -207 v. Kazakhstan | 2-2 | Loss | -207 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ukraine over Kazakhstan at 10 am et on Wednesday. These two nations just battled to a 1-1 draw in World Cup Qualifying back in March but that final score may have been a little misleading. The Ukraine actually fired 28 shots with 10 of them reaching target. It also owed a 71/29 edge in terms of ball possession. An early goal may have actually been the worst thing for the Ukrainians as they likely got a little ahead of themselves in a match they should have handled with relative ease. This is of course now a more battle-tested Ukrainian side following a solid showing at Euro 2020. Both squads are expected to be at full strength for this one but that favors Ukraine as it owns a significant talent edge. The Kazakhs are known for their ability to grind their opponent and ultimately be a tough out but I believe there's a class difference that simply isn't being properly represented, even with this price north of -200. Take Ukraine (8*). |
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08-26-21 | Crvena Zvezda v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.25 | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between CFR Cluj and Red Star Belgrade at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm reccomending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.0 goals, laying about -175 to do so at the time of writing. This of course ensures we at least get a push should the match end on exactly two goals. If alternate totals are not available at your book, I would still suggest playing the 'over' at 2.25 goals. Red Star Belgrade is looking to advance in Europa League action after bitter disappointment in Champions League qualification. It should be well on its way after securing a 4-0 victory at home in the first leg of this matchup. Despite the seemingly comfortable lead, I don't expect Red Star to sit back and 'park the bus' in this one as an aggressive attacking CFR Cluj side should afford the Serbian superclub plenty of opportunities to expand its margin. Cluj are no strangers to high-scoring affairs, noting that they fell by an aggregate 4-2 score against Young Boys in their unglorious Champions League exit. The seven-time Romanian champions do still have to carry some confidence here as they've actually gone a perfect 6-0 in league play this season and will certainly want to put on a good show here at home. Note that for as well as Red Star has performed, it has already lost a pair of matches away from home in league play and has dropped four of its last six overall on the road. Cluj is expected to have forward Alexandru Paun back for this match following his one-game suspension. I see little reason for the Romanian side to hold anything back as it needs a small miracle to secure advancement from this tie. We'll without a doubt see changes to the Cluj lineup following an unfruitful effort in the first leg. Red Star will undoubtedly use this match as a step-off point as it looks to continue on in Europa League play while also tuning up prior to its return to league action. As I said, this is a squad that has an attacking mindset regardless the situation and I don't expect to see it satisfied with its 4-0 lead. I suspect there are at least three goals to be had in this match. Take the over 2.0 goals (6*). |
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08-26-21 | Zalgiris v. Bodo / Glimt OVER 3.25 | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 5 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Zalgiris and Bodo Glimt at 12 noon et on Thursday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'over' using the alternate total of 2.5 goals (laying -195 at the time of writing). The standard total currently being offered is 3.0 goals. This is a Europa Conference League match. Bodo Glimt holds a considerable talent edge in this match yet the first leg ended in a 2-2 draw. I'm confident that result will have both sides come out with an attacking mindset in this one, noting that each of the previous two matches between these two squads has totaled exactly four goals (Bodo won 3-1 last September). The real question here is whether we believe Zalgiris can break through as the match price says it all with Bodo Glimt a considerable favorite. I believe it can do just that as Bodo has proven to be vulnerable on the back end - noting that it has seen at least three total goals scored in 10 of its last 16 matches, despite many of those matches coming against inferior opposition. We already witnessed Bodo Glimt become somewhat complacent in the second half in the first leg of this matchup and a similar situation is in the cards here - especially if/when they build a lead. They're capable of messing around as much as they'd like and still finding the back of the net on a couple of occasions here. Meanwhile, having already found a marker in each of the last two meetings, Zalgiris has a blueprint for denting the Bodo defense. I believe we'll see a worst-case scenario 2-1 result here and more likely higher-scoring affair. Take the over 2.5 goals (5*). |
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08-16-21 | Granada v. Villarreal -147 | 0-0 | Loss | -147 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villarreal over Granada at 2 pm et on Monday. Some will expect a letdown from Villarreal here after it fell on penalty kicks in the UEFA Super Cup against Chelsea last week. Instead, I see that as an excellent jumping off point as they kick off an important La Liga season on Monday. After finishing a somewhat disappointing seventh in La Liga action last year, Villarreal will have its sights set on loftier goals this year. Keep in mind, by winning the Europa League title over Manchester United, it has locked up a spot in 2021-22 Champions League play - all in all it's a very important season for the Yellow Submarine. Granada finished last season in ninth place in La Liga. That was actually a step back, however, as it had finished seventh the year previous, which marked its return to top level football in Spain. Note that while Granada has notched three victories in five preseason friendly matches, the last two victories came against the likes of Linense and Malaga. It will obviously be taking a significant step up in class here. If Villarreal is to improve on its standing over last year, it would certainly be well-served to pick up all three points in a match like this, especially considering it only managed a 2-2 draw the last time it met Granada. I expect to see the Yellow Submarine build off of its strong showing against Chelsea and get off to a winning start to the La Liga season with a win on Monday. Take Villarreal (5*). |
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08-13-21 | Arsenal v. Brentford UNDER 2.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Brentford and Arsenal at 3 pm et on Friday. These two clubs have a lot to prove, albeit for different reasons, as they open the English Premier League season on Friday afternoon. For Arsenal, it can ill afford to drop three points against newly-promoted Brentford. There have been enough trying times for the Gunners in recent years, it will certainly be determined to at the very least stay level following a poor preseason showing. As for the Bees, this is obviously a triumphant day as it finds itself playing an EPL match for the first time in over 70 years. Brentford will without question find the going much tougher at this level than it did in the English Championship, where it sealed its promotion with a two-goal showing against Swansea City back in May. Staying level with Arsenal would obviously serve as a major victory for the Bees in front of their home faithul. Regardless, I feel we're in for a tightly-contested cagey affair on Friday with goals coming at a premium. Take the under (5*). |
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08-10-21 | Ferencvaros v. Slavia Praha OVER 2.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 17 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Slavia Prague and Ferencvaros at 1 pm et on Tuesday. Slavia Prague was stunned by a 2-0 score in the first leg of this Champions League qualifying matchup last week. Back at home, I certainly expect it to answer back but will it be enough to win on aggregate - it obviously has a serious uphill battle down two goals without an away goal to its credit. Needless to say, we should see Slavia Prague come out with an attacking mindset here. Ferencvaros is unlikely to roll over or settle into a defensive shell, despite the 2-0 advantage. Keep in mind, it has scored a whopping 13 goals in just five matches in the 2021 campaign. Going back to 2020 we find that it managed to find the back of the net in difficult matchups against the likes of Juventus, Barcelona and Dinamo Zagreb. Note that Slavia Prague remains vulnerable at the back-end with two key defenders sidelined, Ondrej Kudela due to a UEFA-imposed suspension and David Hovorka as a result of injury. If it wants to advance beyond this stage it will likely need to topple this total all on its own. Thankfully, that's not a requirement, however, with Ferencvaros likely to ripple the net at least once as well. Take the over (7*). |
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08-05-21 | Celtic v. Jablonec UNDER 2.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -122 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between FK Baumit Jablonec and Celtic at 11:45 am et on Thursday. Celtic desperately needs to avoid a defeat in this Europa League qualification match on Thursday as it comes off a rare opening day loss in the Scottish Premiership last weekend. Having also just been ousted from Champions League qualifying last week, morale isn't particularly high for the Scottish side. This is by no means a gimme as it travels to the Czech Republic for the first leg of this matchup on Thursday. Goals haven't been easy to come by for Jablonec, which is coming off a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Mlada Boleslav last Saturday. While Celtic is by no means a defensive powerhouse, I'm not convinced Jablonec is well-positioned to take advantage on Thursday. The Czech side has been known to go with just one attacker up front and I suspect it will be content to allow Celtic to control the bulk of the possession on Thursday, and wait for an opportunity to strike in transition. With neither of these sides instilling a great deal of confidence on the attack, it's difficult to envision a scenario where either finds the back of the net more than once. Keeping in mind this if the first leg of this matchup, I'm anticipating a cagey, low-scoring affair on Thursday. Take the under (10*). |
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08-04-21 | Legia Warsaw v. Dinamo Zagreb -165 | 1-1 | Loss | -165 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dinamo Zagreb over Legia Warsaw at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I like Dinamo Zagreb to gain the upper hand in the first leg of this Champions League qualifier as it boasts incredible firepower up front (the fact that Swiss striker Mario Gavranovic is likely an option off the bench speaks to their depth). For Legia Warsaw it will simply be looking to keep within arm's length in this one and perhaps to seal an away goal before hosting the second leg in this matchup next week. Note that it lost one of its top scoring threats in Bartosz Kaputska to a knee injury in the last round of qualifying. Warsaw has a varied mix of youth and experience, I'm just not sure it's the right combination to keep pace with a side like Dinamo Zagreb in this high stakes match. The Croatian champions are favored for a reason in this one. Take Dinamo Zagreb (9*). |
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08-04-21 | Benfica v. Spartak Moscow UNDER 2.5 | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Benfica and Spartak Moscow at 1 pm et on Wednesday. This match has all the makings of a low-scoring encounter as these two squads do battle in the first leg of their Champions League qualifier. Spartak Moscow already has two league matches under its belt in Russia, managing just a single goal - that coming from the penalty spot. There's little reason to expect a sudden offensive outburst from Rui Vitoria's squad here as it hosts favored Benfica. The Portuguese side is still getting its legs under it following four preseason league matches. Benfica won't have all hands on deck for this one with newly-acquired Ukrainian standout Roman Yaremchuk not yet acclimated. Here, we can expect Benfica to be content should it find an away goal ahead of hosting the second leg of this matchup next week. I simply feel that two goals from either squad will be a bridge too far on Wednesday. Take the under 2.5 goals (10*). |
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07-29-21 | Canada v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Canada and Mexico at 10 pm et on Thursday. While Mexico should certainly prevail in this match to advance to the Gold Cup Final, victories have rarely come easy for El Tri at this stage of the tournament and Canada serves as the very definition of a 'tough out'. I'm anticipating a relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday. I actually think this one could play out similarly to Canada's narrow loss to the USA earlier in this tournament. Without the likes of Cyle Larin and of course Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, the Canadians don't have the firepower to welcome a high-scoring affair here. Mexico has shown a desire to go on the attack throughout this tournament, while also keeping a clean sheet from wire-to-wire so far. After scoring three goals against Honduras I suspect Mexico will be hard-pressed to find the back of the net more than once in this one. On the flip side, Canada simply doesn't have its 'A' squad right now due to injuries and will find the Mexican back end extremely difficult to break down. Take the under (6*). |
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07-25-21 | Canada v. Costa Rica | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Gold Cup Game of the Year. My selection is on Costa Rica pk'em (draw no bet) over Canada at 7 pm et on Sunday. Credit Canada for battling through key injuries to Jonathan David and Alphonso Davies to get to this stage of the tournament but now with striker Cyle Larin and midfield Ayo Akinola missing due to injury as well, I believe getting past an improving Costa Rica squad will be a bridge too far. Costa Rica has impressed in this tournament, certainly performing better than I expect this veteran squad to heading in. Keep in mind, Costa Rica does find itself ranked above Canada in the FIFA world rankings so the case can certainly be made that the wrong side is being favored here (ever so slightly). Canada went all out in its final Group Stage match against the USA, but ultimately failed to find the back of the net despite applying waves of pressure throughout the match. The low posted total gives us a hint of what to expect here as well as I suspect the Canadians will once again have a tough time finding goals with what could only be considered their 'B' squad at this point. Costa Rica will be without goalkeeper Leonel Moreira for this match after he was given a red card against Jamaica. However, this is still a well-organized Costa Rican defense that should prove difficult to break down and I don't expect it to afford the Canadians a great deal of scoring chances. Costa Rica has been clinical in attack from the get-go in this tournament and while this will arguably be its toughest test to date, I look for Ariel Lassiter in particular to shine up front in this match. Take Costa Rica pk/draw no bet (10*). |
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07-24-21 | El Salvador +0.5 v. Qatar | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on El Salvador +1 goal over Qatar at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. NOTE: I'm recommending grabbing the insurance goal with El Salvador in this one, allowing us to 'push' should it lose by exactly one goal. Most books are currently offering +0.75 goals as the standard line but +1 is widely available as an alternate line, albeit at a steeper price. Qatar got off to a shaky start in this tournament, blowing three leads on its way to a 3-3 draw against Panama. It's been all positive since then, however, but now it finds itself in uncharted territory as it heads to the quarter-final round as a decided favorite against El Salvador. Keep in mind, these two teams just squared off in a friendly tune-up match prior to this tournament with Qatar winning by a 1-0 score. El Salvador has actually played well in this tournament so far, with its lone blemish coming in a 1-0 loss to top-15 FIFA ranked Mexico in a relatively meaningless Group Stage finale. This is an El Salvador side that has been on the rise over the last couple of years. Getting to this stage of the tournament is a big deal as it had failed to do so in two of the last three Gold Cup events. I like the make up of this squad and believe it can give Qatar all it can handle on Saturday. Watch for Alex Roldan for El Salvador. He's been a real difference-maker for them in this tournament and started for the first time against Mexico last time out. It's been a smooth ride for Qatar over its last couple of matches but I expect it to face some resistance here. These are two evenly matched sides and I'm not sure that's being properly reflected in the line. Take El Salvador +1 goal (6*). |
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07-20-21 | Guadeloupe v. Suriname OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 120 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
Gold Cup Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'over' 2.5 goals between Suriname and Guadeloupe at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Both of these teams have come away pointless through their first two matches in the tournament and will be heading home following this contest on Tuesday. With that being said, both have shown plenty of promise, particularly on the attack, and I expect to see a wide-open, free-flowing affair on Tuesday night in Houston. Suriname has fired an incredible 26 shots through its first two matches, despite facing two of the strongest teams in the tournament in Jamaica and Costa Rica. Gleofilo Vlijter has been particularly impressive and needs just one more goal to pull even for the most in his country's history. Here, Suriname should find the going a lot easier against what has been a rather disorganized Guadeloupe defense at times in this tournament. That's not to mention the fact that Guadeloupe goalkeeper Johann Thuram has been one of the weakest in the field. He may not even start this match, but regardless, I expect Suriname to find offensive success. Guadeloupe's strength is clearly up front where it boasts three dynamic attackers in Phaeton, Mirval and Ramothe. We've yet to see Matthias Phaeton find the back of the net but I believe a goal isn't far off for the Guadeloupe striker. We've seen numerous lapses from the Suriname defense in this tournament, most recently conceding two goals in two minutes after grabbing an early second half lead against Costa Rica last time out. We saw Suriname hold strong defensively for a half against the Costa Ricans but I actually feel that may have been a more favorable matchup defensively as Costa Rica doesn't boast the same level of speed as this young Guadeloupe squad. There's little reason for either side to sit back as both play for pride and attempt to notch a rare Gold Cup victory on Tuesday. I believe this has the potential to be one of the more entertaining, if not fundamentally or tactically impressive, matches of the tournament. The fact that we're able to play the 'over' 2.5 goals at a plus money return (at the time of writing) is a bargain in my opinion. Take the over 2.5 goals (10*). |
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07-18-21 | Haiti -160 v. Martinique | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Haiti over Martinique at 5 pm et on Sunday. We missed the mark with Haiti against Canada last time out but I expect it to finally find an ounce of success in this tournament as it wraps up the group stage against Martinique. While Haiti won't be advancing to to the next round it will be playing for pride and country here and I don't expect it to come out flat. We did see some fight from the Haitians against Canada, battling back with a goal after falling behind very early. Unfortunately two second half penalties ended up sinking them in a 4-1 loss. Martinique has looked like the worst team in this tournament for all intents and purposes and I don't expect it to pick up the pieces in this meaningless finale. It's interesting to note that Martinique started this tournament on the right foot, taking advantage of a Canada miscue to grab an early 1-0 lead in its opener. It's been all downhill since then, however as it has been outscored 10-1 since. We're being asked to lay a reasonable price with Haiti here largely due to its Covid issues as it continues to play on without seven key contributors. Nevertheless I believe there's still a considerable class difference here and will back Haiti on the three-way moneyline. Take Haiti (6*). |
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07-17-21 | Qatar -2.5 v. Grenada | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Qatar -2.5 goals over Grenada at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. Off a wild 3-3 draw that saw all six goals scored in the second half against Panama, Qatar should find the going much easier against an overmatched Grenada squad on Saturday. Grenada fell by a 4-0 score against Honduras in its Gold Cup opener. It's unlikely the 160th-ranked international squad will find its footing against a cohesive Qatarian side here. Keep in mind, the bulk of the Qatar lineup plays together at the club level in its home country so it's no surprise that we saw it flow freely against Panama last time out. Defensively Qatar was extremely sound leading up to this tournament but clearly sprung some leaks against the Panamanians. This is an ideal bounce-back spot, however, as it faces an inexperienced Grenada squad that has had a miserable time trying to find the back of the goal against inferior opposition to what it will face here. While we're being asked to pay a steep tariff to back Qatar in this one I believe the lofty spread is warranted. Take Qatar -2.5 goals (9*). |
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07-16-21 | Costa Rica v. Suriname UNDER 3 | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Suriname and Costa Rica at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Suriname had its chances to score against Jamaica in its Gold Cup opener but ultimately came up empty in a 2-0 defeat. Here, I believe those chances will be few and far between against an experienced Costa Rica side that is coming off a 3-1 victory over Guadeloupe. Costa Rica let its guard down during injury time before the end of the first half, giving up its lone goal of the match. In general it did do a nice job of neutralizing Guadeloupe's strength, which certainly lies up front with capable attackers in Mirval, Phaeton and Ramothe. Here, Costa Rica will face a tougher defensive side than it saw in its tournament opener. It should also find it a little more difficult to dominate the possession as it did last time out. Suriname actually held a 53% to 47% possession edge against Jamaica. I don't expect it to find the same level of success in that regard here, but it will get its share of the ball against the Costa Ricans - I'm just not sure it will lead to anything fruitful on the attack. The situation lends itself to the 'under' in my opinion. Credit Costa Rica for finding the back of the net three times on Monday. However, given the fact that Guadeloupe received a red card relatively early in the second half, the damage probably should have been worse had Costa Rica been in top form. Look for it to continue to search for that form on Thursday as it likely controls this match most of the way, but fails to do enough to eclipse this generous total. Take the under (9*). |
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07-16-21 | Jamaica -1.5 v. Guadeloupe | 2-1 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jamaica -1.5 goals over Guadeloupe at 6:30 pm et on Friday. We won plays supporting both of these squads in their respective tournament openers but here, I'll give the nod to Jamaica as it should outclass Guadeloupe by a considerable margin over the course of 90 minutes. Jamaica jumped ahead early and while there were a few testy moments, ultimately prevailed by a 2-0 score against Suriname in its Gold Cup opener. The fact that it was challenged at all should serve as a bit of a wake-up call as it prepares to face another seemingly inferior squad talent-wise on Friday. Keep in mind, the Jamaicans can lock up advancement from the group stage with a victory here. We won with Guadeloupe +2.5 goals in its opener against Costa Rica but were fortunate to do so after it fell behind by two goals on two separate occasions and also received a red card fairly early in the second half. That red card will result in key defender/midfielder Steve Solvet missing this match. I have concerns when it comes to the Guadeloupe defense in this one after it looked rather disorganized against a slower Costa Rica squad than it will face on Friday. While goalkeeper Yohann Thuram was the hero in a penalty shootout win over Guatemala to reach this tournament, he has looked shaky at times and that was certainly the case in the match against Costa Rica. There's a considerable class difference that I'm not sure is being properly reflected in this line, partly due to Guadeloupe's respectable 3-1 defeat at the hands of Costa Rica. Jamaica wasn't quite as sharp as it would have liked against Suriname but I expect to see a more cohesive performance here. While I like some of the pieces Guadeloupe has up front, most notably Mirval, Phaeton and Ramothe, I suspect it will have a different time breaking down a Jamaican defense that has the potential to perform better than it did on Monday. Take Jamaica -1.5 goals (9*). |
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07-15-21 | United States -2.5 v. Martinique | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on USA -2.5 goals over Martinique at 9:30 pm et on Thursday. |
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07-15-21 | Canada v. Haiti +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Haiti +1.5 goals over Canada at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. Haiti has been struck by Covid issues in this tournament, likely to miss seven players once again for Thursday's critical match against Canada. Nevertheless, the Haitians put forth a valiant effort against the USA in their Gold Cup opener and I expect them to be a 'tough out' against Canada as well. Canada cruised to a 4-1 victory against an overmatched Martinique squad in its tournament opener. A win here would obviously put it in the driver's seat for advancement from the group stage. Haiti on the other hand will be desperate to at least gain a point here before closing the opening round with a winnable match against Martinique. Despite getting shutout in its opener, Haiti did have its share of scoring opportunities against the Americans and will have something to build on here. Having also been shutout in two World Cup Qualifying matches against Canada prior to this tournament, I expect Haiti to make a concerted effort to put pressure on the Canadian defense here, which was never really tested by Martinique. While Canada's first victory was lopsided in nature, it's worth noting that it didn't extend the lead to three goals until the closing minutes of the match and that was with Martinique appearing punchless at both ends of the pitch. It will be up against a far more cagey side here, and I believe the familiarity between these two squads lends itself to a tightly contested affair. Take Haiti +1.5 goals (9*). |
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07-14-21 | Mexico -2.75 v. Guatemala | 3-0 | Win | 50 | 15 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Mexico -2.75 goals over Guatemala at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. This is a nightmarish spot for Guatemala as it faces a furious Mexican side coming off a stunning 0-0 draw against Trinidad and Tobago in its Gold Cup opener - a match that was marred by questionable officiating and an injury to Mexican star Hirving Lozano. There's really no reason to knock Mexico for that 0-0 result. It dominated play for 90 minutes and probably deserved a better fate as their should have almost certainly been a penalty called on the play that injured Lozano, not to mention another goal that was called back due to a questionable offside call. Nevertheless, Mexico held 83% of the possession in that contest, firing 30 shots with seven hitting target. It racked up an incredible 31 crosses in the draw and held Trinidad and Tobago without a single shot on goal. In fact, Mexico hasn't allowed a single shot on target in its last two contests. Guatemala is only in this tournament due to Curacao being forced to withdraw due to positive Covid results. I don't think there's any question, El Salvador overlooked Guatemala in the opener. Still, the floodgates eventually opened with El Salvador finding a couple of late goals in a 2-0 victory. In the loss, Guatemala managed only 31% of the possession while allowing 21 shots with six on target and 24 crosses. Guatemala itself managed just one shot on target in the loss. Goal differential becomes a factor here after Mexico's scoreless draw to open the tournament. I don't expect to see the Mexicans take their foot off the gas should they build a lead in this contest, noting that they secured a 3-0 victory over the Guatemalans the last time they squared off in a friendly match last September. Take Mexico -2.75 goals (9*). |
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07-14-21 | El Salvador v. Trinidad & Tobago UNDER 2 | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.25 goals between El Salvador and Trinidad and Tobago at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. NOTE: I would recommend playing this total at 2.25 or 2.5 if that becomes available (totals have generally been rising throughout the day in this tournament), giving us the opportunity to still get a return should the final score land on two goals. El Salvador only managed to break through with two goals in the final stages of its opening match against lowly Guatemala - a team that only got in this tournament thanks to Curacao's Covid issues, which forced it to withdraw. While El Salvador will likely hold the majority of the possession once again in this match, the question remains whether it can break through, noting that it was previously held scoreless in a 1-0 loss to Qatar (which gave up three goals against Panama last night) in a pre-tournament friendly match. Trinidad and Tobago will certainly be looking to earn at least another point here after a stunning 0-0 draw against mighty Mexico in its tournament opener. There's little reason to expect it to switch up its gameplan and go on the attack in this one as it simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep pace in that type of affair. Trinidad and Tobago has scored just two goals in three matches going back to the start of June, and those two tallies came against Saint Kitts and Nevis - a team that holds a 135th FIFA ranking. With three points already under its belt, El Salvador is in the driver's seat in the group and ahead of a tough match against Mexico will certainly be content to earn at least a point in this match. Unlike what we saw in last night's two matches, I expect this to be a cagey, low-scoring contest, as the relatively low total implies. Take the under 2.25 goals (9*). |
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07-13-21 | Grenada v. Honduras UNDER 3 | 0-4 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 3.0 goals between Honduras and Grenada at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Grenada checks in as decided underdogs in its group here at the Gold Cup. I have a hard time envisioning it breaking down an experienced and talented Honduras back-end but on the flip side, Honduras isn't the side it once was and I'm not convinced that a blowout is imminent in this group stage opener. Honduras is undergoing a 'rebuild' of sorts right now, having been on the decline since missing out on the 2018 World Cup. You would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time it won a match inside 90 minutes, which is obviously a concern as it finds itself in a tough group that also includes CONCACAF outsider Qatar and Panama. Gaining three points from this match is obviously paramount but I believe a 1-0 or 2-0 result is the most likely outcome. Grenada won't be able to lean on a great deal of experience, with the majority of its attackers under the age of 25. That's what makes the prospect of finding a goal so difficult here as it goes up against a stout Honduras defense that just held Mexico without a shot on target last time out. One of the strengths of this Grenada squad is in its last line of defense as goalkeeper Jason Belfon is expected to make his 44th appearance. I would expect Grenada to play a somewhat conservative style here as it looks to contain Honduras and perhaps steal a point to open this tournament. The fact that Honduras is expected to give playing time to striker Jerry Bengston is telling when you consider that he hasn't featured in this tournament in a decade. Short on offensive firepower, I'm not convinced it will be looking to attack should it build a lead as expected. Take the under (9*). |
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07-13-21 | Panama v. Qatar OVER 2 | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'over' 2.0 goals between Qatar and Panama at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I'm fairly high on this Qatar side entering the Gold Cup as it makes its first tournament appearance by way of an invite in advance of hosting next year's World Cup. The 'outsiders' in this tournament are favored to advance from their group and rightfully so, with a cohesive squad featuring many players that play and train together at the club level in their home country. Qatar is brimming with talent up front, led by dynamic striker Akram Afif. Don't be fooled by the fact it was held to just a single goal against El Salvador in a friendly match earlier this month - Qatar was penalized with a red card in the first 20 minutes in that contest, forcing it to play back on its heels the rest of the way. While Qatar is on a run of clean sheets right now, it has also been facing inferior squads in World Cup Qualifying - the likes of Oman, India and Bangladesh. The fact that it was able to post a shutout despite being a man down most of the way against El Salvador was impressive but here it will go up against a Panama side that has lost only one group stage fixture in this tournament going all the way back to 2011. Panama may not be the same team it was when it reached the World Cup in 2018 but it still should pose a challenge here. Knowing that it is unlikely to keep Qatar off the scoresheet entirely, its focus should be on generating scoring opportunities after being shut out in each of its last two matches. Panama didn't start veteran striker Gabriel Torres in either of those two contests but he is expected to feature here. Prior to its last two matches, Panama had scored at least a goal in five consecutive contests in World Cup Qualifying. That included a 13-0 drubbing of Anguilla back in early June. While we won't see an offensive explosion from the Panamanians against a well-organized Qatar side here, I do expect it to do enough to help this one 'over' the relatively low total. Take the over (9*). |
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07-12-21 | Guadeloupe +2.25 v. Costa Rica | 1-3 | Win | 50 | 14 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Guadeloupe +2.5 goals over Costa Rica at 9 pm et on Monday. Costa Rica made a splash at the 2014 World Cup but it's been mostly downhill since then as it has fallen from the 15th ranked team in the World (according to FIFA rankings) to 50th, where it currently resides. Yes, Costa Rica 'should' win this match on pedigree alone, however I don't think Guadeloupe will go down easily. Guadeloupe is playing with house money in this tournament after booking its ticket with a thrilling shootout victory over Guatemala last week. Putting the level of competition aside, Guadeloupe has now won each of its last six matches while Costa Rica checks in winless over that same stretch. I love the setup of the 'Gwada Boys' up front as they feature clinical attackers in Phaeton, Mirval and Ramothe that should be able to take advantage of an older, slower Costa Rica squad. I believe the door is open for Guadeloupe to find the back of the net at least once in this match, noting that Costa Rica did not include PSG goalkeeper Keylor Navas on its squad for this tournament. Should that happen, Costa Rica will be hard-pressed to find the four goals needed to cover this lofty goal-line spread. Take Guadeloupe +2.5 goals (9*). |
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07-12-21 | Suriname v. Jamaica -205 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Jamaica over Suriname at 6:30 pm et on Monday. Jamaica hasn't exactly been setting the world on fire in recent matches but it is coming off an encouraging 1-1 draw against top 25 FIFA-ranked squad Serbia (in a game it led 1-0 until the latter stages) and should gets its Gold Cup campaign off to a promising start with a victory over upstart Suriname on Monday. Suriname is coming off a 4-0 drubbing at the hands of the Canada but has shown some promise lately, particularly on the attack. With that being said, its opposing slate has left a lot to be desired. This is a soccer nation that is still building up its reputation and I don't believe it's ready to stage an upset of a Jamaica squad that still has its eyes on World Cup 2022 qualification. While the bulk of Jamaica's roster plays (and stars) in MLS, Suriname draws most of its talent from the lower divisions in the Netherlands. Jamaica already has the tournament experience that Suriname is looking to gain here in its Gold Cup debut. While the Surinamese aren't going to roll over, I do expect Jamaica's depth and talent to ultimately prevail. Take Jamaica (9*). |
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07-11-21 | England v. Italy UNDER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on the first half 'under' 1.0 goal between Italy and England at 3 pm et on Sunday. NOTE: I'm recommending playing the alternate first half total of 1.0 goal if your book offers such an option on Sunday. Consider this a 9* play if 'under' 0.75 goals in the first half is your only option. We won with the Spain-Italy full game 'under' and the England-Denmark first half 'over' in the semi-final round and I believe we're well-positioned to cash this first half total in Sunday's epic Final between Italy and England as well. England had its hand forced early on against Denmark in the semis. It was put back on its heels after Denmark managed to break through with an early free kick goal just outside the penalty box and the match essentially changed from there. The Three Lions were able to answer inside the first 45 minutes but that was it for scoring until extra time. Here, I'm anticipating another cagey affair between England and Italy - with the latter proving to be perhaps the most impressive outfit in this entire tournament. We've seen the Italians look dominant at both ends of the pitch. I do expect to see a bit of a 'feeling out process' early in this showdown on Sunday, however. The Italians perhaps haven't looked quite as decisive on the attack in recent matches, which has a lot to do with the level of competition it has faced. England has suddenly looked extremely dangerous offensively following a bit of a slow start to the tournament. With that being said, this is clearly its toughest test of the tournament to date. It's not going to be easy to break down a stout Italian defense. The argument can certainly be made that both teams are here thanks to their defensive prowess and form more than anything else. I just don't envision any early breakthroughs. A 0-0 halftime result seems most likely and while we're being asked to pay a considerable tariff to play the 'under' at a full goal, I believe the price is warranted. Take the first half under (10*). |
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07-07-21 | Denmark v. England OVER 2 | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
Euro First Half Total of the Year. My selection is on the first half 'over' 0.5 goals between England and Denmark at 3 pm et on Wednesday. Yesterday's semi-final match between Italy and Spain saw a goalless first half as both teams' ball possession prowess was on full display. I'm anticipating a different type of contest on Wednesday - at least early on - as England and Denmark battle to decide which squad faces the Italians in the Euro 2020 Final. Unlike Italy and Spain, these two teams are unlikely to be content simply possessing the ball. I think both know that they're going to need to find the back of the net once, but more likely twice to secure victory here. England has recorded a clean sheet in each of its first five Euro matches. It's worth noting that no side has ever done so in six consecutive matches in World Cup/Euro history. The Three Lions will undoubtedly have their hands full trying to contain a Denmark side that has gotten stronger with each passing match and has managed to score at least a goal in 11 of its last 12 matches overall (the only shutout came against Finland under terrible circumstances with Christian Eriksen's on-field cardiac arrest in the Danes tournament opener). I like the confidence the English have shown as they've gone on the attack against Germany and Ukraine with the onset of the knockout portion of the tournament. Gareth Southgate has a wealth of options at his disposal, and most involve players that look to push forward and apply pressure on opposing defenses. Denmark has certainly found its form offensively with Kasper Dolberg supplanting Yussuf Poulson and tallying three goals in the last two matches. The Danes have managed to reach the target on 25 of 43 shot attempts over their last three matches after doing so on just 11 of 43 attempts in their first two contests. Jordan Pickford is an excellent keeper on the English side but he hasn't been all that busy in this tournament, recording just nine saves in five matches. Denmark has conceded at least a goal in four of its five tournament matches to date but has yet to concede a first half goal. I'm not sure that's a sustainable trend, however, and again I think we see a different type of affair compared to what we watched between two ball-possession minded squads in Italy and Spain yesterday. Getting out on the front foot will be paramount for both England and Denmark in this match and I believe an early breakthrough will be in the cards. If your book offers alternate first half totals I would suggest playing this one at a slightly steeper price at 0.5 rather than the standard 0.75 being offered, ensuring the win should the first 45 minutes see a single goal. Virtually all books offer the opportunity to play alternate first half totals by way of live betting as soon as the match kicks off. Take the first half over (10*). |
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07-06-21 | Spain v. Italy UNDER 2.25 | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' 2.5 goals between Italy and Spain at 3 pm et on Tuesday. NOTE: I'm recommending a play on the 'under' at 2.5 goals rather than the standard 2.25 being offered at most books. This of course ensures we're paid out should the game land on two goals (excluding extra time). We've had a pretty good read on Italy in this tournament, cashing three tickets along the way. After getting bogged down against Austria in the knockout round we saw the Azzurri come up big in a 2-1 victory over number one ranked Belgium. Here, I think we'll see Italy have a difficult time breaking down a very well-organized Spain squad, however. That goes both ways though. Italy hadn't conceded a goal in this tournament (and well before that as well) before giving one up in extra time against Austria. On Saturday, the only goal it conceded against Belgium came by way of a penalty. Spain is obviously loaded with talent all over the pitch and particularly up front but it still couldn't break the deadlock against Switzerland in the quarters despite the Swiss going down a man due to a red card in the 77th minute. Switzerland managed to keep a clean sheet from there, including 30 minutes of extra time before falling in a penalty shootout. When you get to this late stage of the tournament, goals can come at a premium and that's precisely what I expect to see on Tuesday. These are two of the best ball possession teams in the field and a 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1 result after 90 minutes seems the most likely outcome. Take the under (10*). |
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07-03-21 | England -220 v. Ukraine | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on England over Ukraine at 3 pm et on Saturday. This is a match that England should handle without much trouble as long as it can avoid an emotional letdown off its massive 2-0 victory over Germany last time out. I don't anticipate that being a problem for the Three Lions here as they draw a favorable matchup against Ukraine. Give credit to Ukraine for getting to this point, although it has certainly been fortunate in doing so, most recently prevailing in extra time after Sweden was given a red card and forced to play defensively down a man. If you've followed my plays regularly you know that I'm high on the likes of Zinchenko, Yaremchuk and Yarmolenko for the Ukrainian side. However, I like the way England matches up against that trio, proving that it can play stout defense throughout this tournament, giving up little in the way of high-danger chances. The question has been whether anyone can rise to the occasion to score those much-needed timely goals for England and against England the answer was a resounding yes. Look for it to carry on with the positive momentum as it cruises past Ukraine here. Take England (9*). |
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07-03-21 | Denmark v. Czech Republic +0.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
Euro Quarter-Final Game of the Year. My selection is on Czech Republic +0.5 goals over Denmark at 12 noon et on Saturday. It's time for teams to starting taking this Czech Republic side seriously after it dispatched the Netherlands in a convincing 2-0 victory last Sunday. The Czechs have done nothing but impress in this tournament and I don't expect to see them wilt under the pressure against the favored Danes on Saturday. Note that Denmark has rode a wave of positive momentum in this tournament ever since a stunning loss to Finland that was marred by Christian Eriksen's cardiac-arrest on the field in mid-match. I give the Danish side all the credit for their incredible run but now they've been sitting idle since breezing past Wales 4-0 last Saturday and I simply feel they're going to have their hands full with a cagey Czech squad. Patrik Schick has arguably been the breakout star of this tournament and he'll be called on once again to lead the Czechs to victory here. Note that they're expected to have key defender Jan Boril back from suspension for this match as well and they'll need all hands on deck given Denmark's ability to find the back of the net, scoring eight times in its last two contests. There's a certain confidence and swagger that the Czech's have displayed in this tournament and I believe it carries them to at least a level result after 90 minutes against Denmark on Saturday. Take Czech Republic +0.5 goals (10*). |
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07-02-21 | Spain v. Switzerland UNDER 2.5 | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on the 'under' between Switzerland and Spain at 12 noon et on Friday. Both of these teams were involved in extremely high-scoring affairs in the knockout stage with Switzerland upsetting France on penalties and Spain getting past Croatia in extra time. Here, I look for a much more cagey affair with goals coming at a premium. High-scoring games aren't generally the norm as these international tournaments progress but that's certainly what we saw in the knockout stage. While Switzerland managed to survive against France thanks to a thrilling comeback, I don't think it wants to put itself in a similar position again here. While Spain hasn't always looked its best in this tournament, or in recent months for that matter, it certainly has exceptional talent as we saw against Croatia. I don't think we'll see the Swiss look to open things up too much at the risk of getting exposed at its own end of the pitch or in transition. Prior to its 5-3 win over Croatia, Spain had conceded just one goal in its first three matches in this tournament. In fact, it had given up just one goal in its last five matches combined going back to a pair of friendlies leading up to the tournament. Take the under (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Ukraine v. Sweden | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Game of the Year. My selection is on Sweden pk (draw no bet) over Ukraine at 3 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Sweden in its most recent match, a 3-2 victory in a wild contest against Poland. Credit the Swedes hanging in there despite Robert Lewandowski's heroics and thanks to the victory they draw a favorable matchup against Ukraine here. Ukraine is certainly fortunate to be here after closing out the group stage with a 1-0 defeat against Austria. While it showed plenty of fight in a narrow 3-2 loss to the Netherlands in its opener and ultimately faced little resistance in a win over North Macedonia, the tournament has generally been a mixed bag for Andriy Shevchenko's squad. That's a stark contrast to the Swedes, who have been rock solid, showing excellent form defensively and just enough attacking prowess to make them a dangerous team moving forward in this tournament. Sweden is now undefeated in its last eight matches and I don't believe Ukraine will be the side to end that run. While I have a lot of respect for Ukraine, particularly for the duo of Zinchenko and Yarmolenko, I look for Sweden to ultimately prevail in what will likely be a low-scoring affair. Take Sweden (10*). |
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06-29-21 | Germany v. England UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Euro Knockout Stage Total of the Year. My selection is on the 'under' between England and Germany at 12 noon et on Tuesday. After yesterday's two thrilling, high-scoring games, most will be quick to go 'over' this low total in Wednesday's first of two knockout stage matchups. I'll go the other way, however, as I envision England having a tough time breaking down Germany, and vice versa. Germany is certainly not without its flaws defensively. It has allowed five goals in three matches in this tournament to date, conceding in all three contests. With that being said, England has shown precious few flashes of brilliance on the attack, generally looking hamstrung in all three tournament matches to date. At its own end of the pitch, the Three Lions have looked well-organized, however, and while Germany offers a stiff challenge, I believe England will be up for it in front of the home faithful at Wembley Stadium on Tuesday. While we've become somewhat accustomed to high-octane, thrill-a-minute matches involving Joachim Low's German side in this tournament, I expect a different story to unfold here as things generally tend to tighten up in the knockout stage (you wouldn't know it by yesterday's results, of course). Take the under (10*). |