04-09-24 |
Bayern Munich v. Arsenal -0.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-140 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205) in the first-leg of the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Arsenal advanced from the Round of 16 in this tournament by avenging a 1-0 loss at Porto with a 1-0 victory at home against them which forced a penalty kick resolution which the Gunners won. Bayern Munich rallied from a 1-0 loss in the first leg against Porto with a 3-0 victory at home against them in the second leg.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Gunners won for the fifth time across six competitions with a 3-0 victory against Brighton and Hove Albion in the English Premier League. Arsenal has generated four straight clean sheets in all competitions. They are in a tie with Liverpool for first place in the EPL in what is shaping up to be the closest finish in the English top flight in years with Manchester City just one point behind them both. This team exorcised some demons against a defensive-minded Porto side by winning in the knockout stage of this tournament for the first time in their last eight appearances in the Round of 16. Under manager Mikel Arteta, this team plays outstanding defense that has not allowed an opponent across all competitions to generate more than 1.5 expected goals. At home at the Emirates Stadium, the Gunners have won six straight games across all competitions while scoring 17 goals and only conceding three times during that run. Arsenal is also undefeated in their four home matches in the Champions League this season where they have scored 13 goals and have yet to concede a goal. For Bayern Munich, the season looks lost with them 16 points behind Bayer Leverkusen. Manager Thomas Tuchel already declared in February that he would not return to the squad next season. They have lost two matches in a row after blowing a 2-0 lead on Saturday in a 3-2 loss at Heidenheim in Bundesliga action. The Bavarians have only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches across all competitions. Injuries have played a role — but rumors of internal strife in the locker room and relating to Tuchel seem to have impacted the cohesion of this team. And while this team has been capable of bullying lesser opponents, they have struggled against the better teams in Germany and Europe. Bayern Munich has been vulnerable in transition on defense — and they lack an elite build-up with the ball despite being a possession team.
FINAL TAKE: Arteta is likely to take a page from Bayer Leverkusen’s tactical book against Bayern Munich from their match on February 10th. Leverkusen surprised with a defensive 5-3-2 formation that set them up to counterattack the vulnerable Bavarians' transition defense. Not only did they win by a 3-0 score but they held Bayern Munich to just 0.6 expected goals. Arsenal thrives versus high-pressing teams like the Bavarians — and Arteta demonstrated that he is content to play out of possession last month against Manchester City when they held them to under 1.0 expected goals. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Arsenal (224206) minus the goal-line versus Bayern Munich (224205). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-24 |
Manchester City v. Liverpool |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 11:45 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W19-D5-L3) has won 13 of their last 14 matches across all competitions after their 3-1 victory at home against Manchester United in the English Premier League last Sunday. Liverpool has won seven matches in a row across all competitions including their 1-0 victory at Nottingham in the EPL last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER CITY WITH THE GOAL-LINE: In the three-way race between these two clubs along with Arsenal to win the EPL title, Liverpool is likely the team whose prospects are dimmest moving forward. Granted, manager Jurgen Klopp is doing a great job with the Reds after they dropped to fifth place in the table after a disappointing 2022-23 campaign. But the Pool Boys have not been tested as much as those two other teams given their failure to qualify for the UEFA Champions League. Their 3-1 loss at Arsenal in the EPL action on February 4th is likely telling regarding where this club is relative to the elite squads in Europe. Injuries are not helping their cause in this one. Klopp is without eight players including Trent Alexander-Arnold who was thriving in a new role for the squad playing up as a midfielder rather than his defensive back role. The absences of midfielders Thiago Alcantara and Diogo Jota will also hurt in this showdown. Their outstanding keeper Alisson is also on the shelf — but they have been getting surprisingly good play from backup goaltender Caoihin Kelleher — although this matchup is a huge challenge for him now. At least Mohamed Salah is back after getting injured during the African Cup in January — but his fitness is in question after playing his first match in a month on Thursday. Liverpool plays this match at a significant situational disadvantage having to travel back from the Czech Republic after a 5-1 victory at Sparta Prague on Thursday in the second-tier (relative to the Champions League) Europe League competition. The Reds have positional weaknesses at left wing and at right defensive back. And while they have only lost one match at home at Anfield in EPL action in their last 57 matches since fans returned post-COVID, their inability to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last nine at home across all competitions raises a red flag for this showdown. Finally, the deeper metrics indicate that the Pool Boys are overachieving in league play. While they have registered 63 points, the expected points deriving from expected goals data drops to just 53.03 points. The metrics suggest that they have been rather fortunate in goal suppression as they have given up only 25 goals despite a 33.78 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Now here comes Man City who lead the EPL with 31.95 expected goals on the road despite playing one less match than Liverpool and Arsenal. Now at their healthiest as they have been all season, the Citizens have scored 12 combined goals in their last three matches after their 3-1 triumph over FC Copenhagen in the Champions League on Wednesday. Kevin DeBruyne missed the first half of the season and has only returned to the pitch in mid-January. Erling Haaland also missed time in December and January. But since the Club World Cup in December, the reigning EPL and Champions League winners are clicking on all cylinders — and they have won ten straight matches on the road in all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: At full strength, Man City remains the best club in the world — and now they face a shorthanded Liverpool squad in a crucial match in the EPL title race. Manager Pep Guardiola has fared well in his tenure with the Citizens when facing Klopp. Since 2017, Man City has a W5-D3-L1 mark in the EPL against the Reds. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Manchester City (200117) with the goal-line versus Liverpool (200118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-06-24 |
FC Copenhagen v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 |
|
1-3 |
Loss |
-111 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FC Copenhagen (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the Round of 16 Knockout Stage in the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: FC Copenhagen had won two matches in a row before their 2-0 loss at Midtjylland on Friday. Manchester City continued their unbeaten run in their last 19 matches across all competitions with their 3-1 victory against Manchester United on Sunday. Man City on the first leg of this Round of 16 matchup on the road with a 3-1 victory on February 13th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City is in complete control of this matchup with a two-goal lead back at home at their Etihad Stadium. With a massive showdown with Liverpool looming this weekend in the English Premier League, manager Pep Guardiola is resting many of his key starters. Granted, scoring machine Erling Harland is in the confirmed starting XI posted at 2 PM ET — but I suspect he will get subbed out early in the second half if the match is in hand. But Haaland’s best support out of the midfield in the Citizens’ attack is on the bench today. Kevin DeBruyne, Bernardo Silva, and Phil Foden are all getting the match off (unless something goes wrong early in this contest — unlikely with them at home). Coincidentally, those three were the three goal-scorers in the first leg against Copenhagen. Guardiola declared Foden the best player in the EPL currently after his two goals scored on Sunday against rival Man United. Steady as she goes for this squad — they have scored 17 goals in their eight EPL matches since the beginning of January but that is below a 3.0 Goals-Per-Game pace despite playing mostly at full strength. Man City is playing better defensively as they have allowed only six goals in those eight EPL matches. Furthermore, they have given up only 12 goals in their 14 home matches in league play. Three of their last four matches at home have not seen more than three combined goals. FC Copenhagen was rusty in the first leg having not played a competitive match since December due to the unique schedule in Denmark where they compete in The Athletic Cup which are glorified friendlies. In their three matches in the Dutch Superliga since the first leg with Man City, they have two clean sheets. Their inability to score against the first-place Midtjylland on Friday is not a good sign regarding their attack. Manager Jacob Neestrup’s squad is also dealing with several injuries impacting their attacking prowess. Regular starting attacking midfielders Lukas Lerager and Viktor Claesson are both injured and dodged not take the trip. Oscar Hojlund is also a doubt to take the pitch with an injury leaving Neestrup perhaps without the exciting 19-year-old attacking midfielder. Copenhagen is comfortable playing a low-block defensive structure — and Neestrup may prefer this approach just to stop the bleeding against the mighty Man City. Copenhagen pulled off a 0-0 draw at Bayern Munich in the Group Stage of this tournament — and they held the Bavarians to below 1.0 expected goals in both Group Stage matches. Additionally, four of their six Group Stage matches saw less than four combined goals scored.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams were in the same Champions League group last season — and their first leg match finished in a 0-0 draw (before Man City smashed them in the second match by a 5-0 score). But I look to the 2022 Round of 16 regarding Guardiola’s likely approach to this match. After a 5-0 thrashing against Sporting in the first leg go that competition, the second leg was a scoreless 0-0 draw with Man City easily advancing but Guardiola taking this easy with his possession-based tactics. Look for a likely Man City clean sheet with not more than three goals scored given the starting XI rotation. 20* UCL FC Copenhagen-Man City CBS-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between FC Copenhagen (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-05-24 |
Manchester City v. Brentford OVER 3 |
|
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200025) and Brentford (200026). THE SITUATION: Man City (W14-D4-L3) has won four straight matches in the English Premier League after their 3-1 victory against Burnley last Wednesday. Brentford (W6-D4-L11) has only one victory in their last 11 matches across all competitions after their 3-2 loss at Tottenham last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City will be as close to full strength in their offensive attack as they have all season now that Kevin DeBruyne has returned to action after missing the first half of the season. Manager Pep Guardiola is also likely to reinsert striker Erling Harland in his starting XI after he returned from his leg injury last week to come off the bench. As it is, the Cityzens have scored two more goals in 10 of their last 11 matches across all competitions. They have also scored 13 combined goals in their last five matches on the road across all competitions. But their defense has been shaky — while they have won three straight EPL matches on the road, they have fallen behind in all three contests. Both Ederson as their primary goalkeeper and Ruben Dias at center-back seem to be declining in their skillset. After holding their opponents to 0.80 expected Goals Allowed (xGA) per 90 minutes in EPL play last season, they are surrendering 0.98 xGA per 90 minutes in league play this year. They have only one clean sheet in their last 11 EPL matches. Now they face a Brentford side that has scored eight combined goals in their last three matches across all competitions. Striker Ivan Toney has been injured for the Foxes — but he has scored two goals in his two matches since his return to the pitch. Toney has also scored in four straight matches at home. He is complemented up front by Neal Maupay has scored a goal in each of Brentford’s matches last month. While Brentford has scored only 31 goals in their 21 EPL matches, they should be seeing more production given their expected goals (xG) of 38.31. Since the beginning of November, the Foxes have registered 1.52 xG per 90 minutes. They lead the EPL in final third entry to box entry rate — and they rank sixth in the league in expected Threat rate and xG from set pieces. But Brentford struggles with their defense as they have not registered a clean sheet in EPL play since October 28th when they blanked Chelsea. When playing at home, they rank 12th in the league by allowing 16.22 xGA in their 11 matches while ranking 18th by surrendering 20 goals. The Foxes have scored eight goals in their last four home matches in EPL — but they have surrendered nine goals in those four contests.
FINAL TAKE: Brentford swept both matches against Man City last season — they scored three goals and registered 2.6 xG in those two contests. The Foxes have seen four or more combined goals scored in four straight EPL matches — and the Cityzens have seen four or more combined goals scored in four of their last 5 EPL contests. 10* EPL Man City-Brentford USA Network O/U Special with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200025) and Brentford (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-20-23 |
England W v. Spain W |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 6:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Spain (225362) with the goal-line versus England (225361) in the finals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Spain (W5-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of the Women’s World Cup with a 2-1 victory against Sweden on Tuesday. England (W5-D1-L0) reached the finals with a 3-1 victory against Australia on Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Spain demonstrated their grit in beating a talented and experienced Sweden side in the semifinals. Salma Paralluelo, their breakout 19-year-old star, broke the scoreless deadlock with a goal in the 81st minute. But the Blue and Yellow immediately responded by leveling the score seven minutes later. Rather than playing on their heels after blowing a late lead, La Roja instead stepped up and scored the winning goal a minute later to take the match in regulation time. I have been skeptical of the Spanish women’s team to overcome their more experienced rivals — but this young team is coming into their own before our eyes. The emergence of a quality women’s program in Spain has always been the lurking giant in women’s soccer. In 2018, Spain won the Under-17 World Cup while finishing second in the Under-20 World Cup. Those players are now the core of this roster. Their tiki-taka possession tactics that invoke the wildly successful Spanish men’s team from a decade ago have been very effective in this tournament. La Roja’s 17 goals are the most in the World Cup — and their 20.1 expected goals suggest they should have generated even more goals. I have been troubled by their 4-0 loss to Japan in the Group Stage since it might have exposed a vulnerability against an opponent willing and able to play without the ball and counter-attack. I did note that while they lost by four goals, the expected goals data indicated that Japan only had a 0.9 to 0.7 excepted goals (xG) edge in that match. Certainly, manager Jorge Vilda used that losing experience to work on their tactics to neutralize the counter-attack. Spain beat Sweden by a 1.6-0.9 xG margin in the Semifinals. They also dominated the Netherlands by a 3.4-0.8 xG margin in the Quarterfinals. Both of those teams played back to counter-attack with La Roja controlling possession 60% of the time in both matches. Frankly, those two opponents presenting more of a challenge than what England has encountered. The Lionesses have had a favorable draw in the Knockout Stage with encounters against Nigeria and Colombia before the Matildas on Wednesday. While Australia is a top-ten team in the world who were playing at home, they are probably not the top-five elite program that is usually the obstacle in a semifinal showdown. England was placed in one of the easier groups as well with Haiti, Denmark, and China their opponents. So, after winning the 2022 Euro with the benefit of playing on their home soil — despite losing the xG battle in many of those matches including the finals against Germany — the Lionesses reached the finals of the World Cup despite avoiding the USA, Germany, France, Sweden, the Netherlands, Brazil, and Japan? Wow. They lost the xG battle against Australia by a 1.4 to 1.3 margin — and they lost the xG battle to Nigeria by a 1.2-0.9 score in the Round of 16. Overall, England has a +5.0 net expected goals differential in this tournament — and Spain’s +16.8 net xG differential overwhelms that mark. Despite my concerns about La Roja’s defense, their 3.4 expected goals allowed (xGA) is a better mark than the Lionesses’ 5.0 xGA. Not only is England’s strength of schedule in this event in question, this will be the first time they face an opponent who will press high and seek to control possession as aggressively as the Spanish women. The Lioness' manager Sarina Wiegman is one of the best tactical minds in the world (man or woman) — but the talent edge goes to La Roja.
FINAL TAKE: With Aitana Bonmati and Alexia Putellas as two of the best female players in the world combined with the rising star that is Paralluelo (who also scored the winning goal against the Netherlands), Spain probably has the better talent on the pitch in this one. And they will be motivated to avenge a 2-1 loss to England in a de-facto road match in the Round of 16 in last year’s Euro Championship. That match did go into extra time before the Lionesses scored the winning second goal. La Roja won the xG battle in that one as well with a 1.6-1.3 xG edge. The analytics say Spain is the better team — and I suspect their time is now getting this rematch in a true neutral environment in Sydney, Australia. 20* Women’s World Cup England-Spain Fox-TV Special with Spain (225362) with the goal-line versus England (225361). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-19-23 |
Australia W v. Sweden W OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 45 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358) in the consolation third-place match in the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Australia (W3-D2-L1) comes off a 3-1 loss to England in their Semifinal match in this tournament on Wednesday morning. Sweden (W4-D1-L1) lost to Spain in a 2-1 heartbreaker in their Semifinals match Tuesday morning. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Brisbane Stadium in Brisbane, Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Australia will be highly motivated to win this match in front of their rabid home fans who have wildly supported their team in this tournament. While reaching the finals would have capped a magical run, winning the third-place bronze trophy will be very rewarding to manager Tony Gustavsson’s team while representing their best finish in a World Cup, men or women. Gustavsson also has his star player back in the mix with Sam Kerr back on the pitch. After missing most of this World Cup, she returned in the match against England and scored their lone goal in the 63rd minute. Kerr’s supporters can make a compelling case that she is the best women’s player in the world. She jumpstarts a Matildas’ attack that scores 10 goals in their six matches. With Kerr back and the excitement of the home crowd, I expect Australia to play aggressively on the front foot. They scored four times with a potent 2.6 expected goals (xG) mark against a quality Canadian team in the Group Stage that won the Gold Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Matildas generated at least 1.1 xG in all six of their matches in this event. But Australia can leaky with their defense. After Kerr evened the score at 1-1, they then conceded two goals in the next 18 minutes to let that game slip out of their hands. While they had four clean sheets overall, the three goals they let Nigeria score against them illustrates their vulnerability in the back end. Sweden is a team that is comfortable in adapting their tactics to their opponent. They outlasted the United States in the shootout in the Round of 16 after 120 minutes of scoreless play. But after Spain broke the scoreless deadlock in the 81st minute in the Semifinals, they pressed the accelerator to even the score seven minutes later — all before conceding the game-winning goal to La Roja two minutes later. Sweden has generated at least 2.0 xG in four of their six matches including against a very good Japanese side. But they allowed 1.2 xG in four of their six matches — and the US, Japan, and Spain combined to create 4.6 expected goals against them in their three Knockout Stage matches.
FINAL TAKE: Consolation matches tend to be higher-scoring affairs since there is not as much pressure regarding winning or losing the match. Parking the bus in the attempt to grind out a third-place trophy is no fun for anyone. In the eight third-place matches in the Women’s World Cup, five of these contests saw three or more combined goals. Sweden will be playing in their fourth third-place match at a Women’s World Cup — but they have won all three of those matches while scoring a combined nine goals in those contests. Manager Peter Gerhardsson intends to keep his same starting XI — so it will be their A-team facing an energized Australian side. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Women’s World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Australia (225357) and Sweden (225358). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-23 |
Sweden W +0.5 v. Spain W |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
6 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Sweden (225349) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225350) in the Semifinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W4-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 2-1 victory against Japan on Thursday. Spain (W4-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-1 win against the Netherlands on Friday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Japan arguably had been the most impressive team in this tournament after the Round of 16 — but Sweden dominated them in their quarterfinal match. The Blue and Yellow took the first 13 shots in the match and took a 2-0 lead in the 51st minute on a penalty kick. Japan played with desperation the rest of the way which made the underlying numbers look better than the eye test — and they did pull within one goal in the 87th minute. But Sweden’s 2.0 to 1.7 edge in expected goals in this match should be viewed in the context that they stopped taking many chances to be more cautious on defense once they took a two-goal lead. The Blue and Yellow also have an impressive win against the number one ranked team in the world in the United States in the Round of 16. Sweden is versatile in their approach while maintaining an outstanding defensive structure. They have only surrendered two goals in their five matches. They will be the most difficult opponent Spain has played in this tournament — and they are quite happy to play in the role of the underdog for the third straight time. La Roja is favored because their underlying numbers are impressive — but this may be an instance where the analytics are betraying what we are about to witness. Spain has simply had a pretty easy pathway to the semifinals. They faced a Netherlands side without their top two players — and they allowed a stoppage-time goal in the 91st minute to extend a match they were dominating into extra time where they would eventually score the winning second goal. They played a mediocre Switzerland team in the Round of 16 that was a similar possession-based team but is not effective in the counter-attack. After beating two minnows in Costa Rica and Zambia, they got dominated by Japan in their final Group Stage match by a 4-0 score who were happy to repeatedly exploit them in the counterattack . Now La Roja faces another opponent that is comfortable playing defense and biding their time for their scoring chances. Those were Sweden’s tactics against the United States although they did not score because the Americans probably had the best defense in the world. That is not the case with the Spanish women who have looked shaky at best when playing without the ball. While La Roja has allowed only 2.6 expected goals in their five matches, this may be a moment where the six actual goals they have allowed indicate they are below average on defense rather than simply unlucky and presumably due to a visit from the Regression Gods. The expected goals data comes from the accumulation of statistics from shots from similar spots on the pitch. Outlier efforts are sometimes the identification of the better or worse player’s performance. Lionel Messi is going to outperform expected goals data because he is the straw that stirs the proverbial drink and pace-setting the outlier statistic. Put another way, the worst teams in the English Premier League tend to have the worst expected goals data because they are the worst teams in the league. Spain has been a good story — and their possession tiki-taka style that features short quick passes has helped them put up big scoring numbers. But their opponents have not been impressive. This group of players has not been in situations like this either — this is La Roja’s first appearance in the Semifinals of a major tournament since 1997.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden has experience in big matches like this — they finished in third place in the 2019 World Cup before losing in the Finals of the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. The Blue and Yellow are playing in their fifth Semifinal Women’s World Cup match — and this team will be hungry having advanced to the final only once. These two teams last played in a friendly in October of last year which ended in a 1-1 draw. A deadlock after regulation is very possible in this one — as is the Sweden upset victory. 20* Women’s World Cup Sweden-Spain Fox-TV Special with Sweden (225349) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225350). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-12-23 |
Colombia W +1 v. England W |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
13 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 6:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals of this tournament with a 1-0 victory against Jamaica in their Round of 16 match on Monday. England (W3-D1-L0) survived a 0-0 draw with Nigeria by taking that match via a 4-2 margin in penalty kicks in their Round of 16 Knockout Stage match on Monday. This match will be played on a neutral field at ANZ Stadium in Sydney, Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE COLOMBIA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had the Under in England’s scoreless match with the Nigeria Super Falcons. The Lionesses actually lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 0.9 to 1.2 margin. They were very fortunate to advance when considering that midfielder Lauren James drew a red card in the 87th minute. Not only did England have to fend off the Nigerian women for 33+ minutes before reaching the shootout, but they will now be without James in their next two matches as she serves her suspension. Her overreaction demonstrated the pressure on this team who won last year’s Euro Championship despite losing the xG battle in many of those contests including in the finals against Germany. England had the advantage of playing that tournament on home soil which I think makes them a bit overvalued now. Even worse, the loss of James continues the slow drip of talent loss from this side’s ideal starting XI. They are already playing this tournament without Leah Williamson who is their best defender. They are also without striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby. Now they lose James who has been their leading scoring in this event with three goals. The Lionesses have scored only eight times in their four matches — and their expected goals in those four matches drop to 7.2 xG. Furthermore, six of their eight goals were scored in their final Group Stage match against China which was a skewed result. Because England scored early in that match, the Chinese women had to break out of their preferred defensive posture to play aggressively since they needed a positive result to advance to the Knockout Stage. Instead, the Lionesses were able to exploit this change of tactics and score five more times — despite only generating 2.6 xG for the match. And while England has only allowed one goal on a penalty kick in this tournament, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is 3.1. Now here comes Colombia playing with house money after reaching the Quarterfinals of a Women’s World Cup for the first time in their history. Las Chicas Ponderosas are a talented side from a nation that takes their soccer very seriously. This is their second appearance in the Knockout Stage after losing to the United States in the Round of 16 in 2015. We had Jamaica on Monday against them — and Colombia did lose the xG battle by a 1.2-0.9 margin. But it is fair to say they were the better side in the first half before taking the lead in the 51st minute from a skillful goal from Catalina Usme. And this group was resilient in holding off the Reggae Girlz in the later stages of that match. Jamaica had not conceded a goal in this tournament before that Usme goal — and they were a side that earned 0-0 draws with both France and Brazil. Las Chicas Ponderosas will be comfortable grinding out a low-scoring match since they prefer parking the bus before finding opportunities for counter-attacks. Their loss to Morocco in the Group Stage was, in part, because they had a tactical conflict with that team that wanted to play a similar approach. England will play aggressively — which is just what Colombia wants.
FINAL TAKE: The story of this World Cup is the emergence of the women’s programs in nations that have had strong men’s teams before investing resources to catch up with the North American and European women’s programs. Colombia has been lurking for years — and now they enjoy the catbird seat where a loss will not be deflating but a victory would be transcendent. All the pressure is on England with a group losing more players and who have only outscored four of their five (non-China) opponents by a 2-0 goal margin. I will be surprised if the Lionesses can score twice in regulation time. I will settle for a push if England wins by a 1-0 score while I expect a scoreless match (or maybe 1-1) after 90 minutes — and I will love Colombia pulling the upset (and NO, I do not recommend adding a little sprinkle on the upset because all those “sprinkles” add up to losses more often than not — I will just be happy to cash this winning ticket at South Point tomorrow morning). 25* Women’s World Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Colombia (225345) plus the goal-line versus England (225346). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-10-23 |
Netherlands W +0.5 v. Spain W |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
105 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing the Netherlands (225333) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225334) in the Quarterfinals of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: The Netherlands (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with a 2-0 victory against South Africa in the Round of 16 on Saturday. Spain (W3-D0-L1) reached the Quarterfinals with a 5-1 victory on Saturday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Wellington Regional Stadium in New Zealand.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETHERLANDS PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Spain has been the darlings of the tournament with 13 goals scored based on 13.3 expected goals (xG) which is the most in the tournament. They lead all teams in this event by possessing the ball 74.8% of the time which has helped them lead this World Cup with 178 shot-creating chances, 103 shots, and 202 touches in the opponent’s penalty area. But the Spanish women benefited from facing two of the minnows in this tournament in Costa Rica and Zambia who they beat by a combined 8-0 score. Drawing Switzerland then in the first knockout stage match was a relatively easy draw as well. What is more telling was their match in the Group Stage against Japan. La Roja clearly wants to control possession — but they were exposed by a Japanese side who embraced playing a defensive counter-attacking approach that led them to an easy 4-0 victory. Now Spain faces a veteran Netherlands side that is battle-tested and comfortable engaging in the counter-attack. The Dutch women have scored in each of their matches. They demonstrated that they are comfortable absorbing an aggressive attack in their match against the United States where they scored first before the Americans tied the match in the 62nd minute before both teams settled for a 1-1 draw. The Netherlands were the only team to score against the two-time World Cup champions who may have struggled with their attack but remained elite on the defensive end of the pitch. The US had 18 shots in that match although only five were on target. The Dutch have a great keeper in Daphne Van Domselaar who has three clean sheets in this tournament. They have limited their four opponents to just 0.65 expected goals allowed per match. They lead the World Cup with 85 high forced turnovers which is the tactic that possession-based teams like Spain are most vulnerable against because they lead to counter-attacks with an edge in attackers versus defenders.
FINAL TAKE: Spain is favored in this match because of their great attacking numbers — but this is the first Quarterfinals match in a World Cup for this program after two previous Round of 16 exits. The Netherlands have experience in these spots including in the 2019 World Cup when they lost in the finals to the US by a 2-0 score. The Dutch beat Italy in those Quarterfinals four years ago by a 2-0 score. A Netherlands victory or a tie score after regulation time seem the two most likely options (versus a Spain victory in regulation) — I think the Dutch women match up very well in this contest and can replicate the winning strategy Japan deployed. 20* Women’s World Cup Netherlands-Spain Fox-TV Special with the Netherlands (225333) plus the goal-line versus Spain (225334). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-08-23 |
Jamaica W +0.5 v. Colombia W |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
3 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage by finishing in second place in Group F with their 0-0 draw with Brazil on Wednesday. Colombia (W2-D0-L1) won Group H despite coming off a 1-0 loss to Morocco on Thursday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium in Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia is a dangerous underdog when they can engage in the role of counter-attacking as they proved against Germany in their huge 2-1 upset victory against one of the tournament favorites who finished in second place at the Euro Championship last summer. But Las Chicas Ponderosas are not as comfortable in the role of the favorite where the tactics call for them to play on their front foot — as they demonstrated in their loss to Morocco. The Moroccan women were content in parking the bus and playing defense while waiting for their opportunities in the counter-attack. While Colombia generated 11 shots, only three were on target. Morocco had seven shots with five of them on target. Morocco won the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.2-0.6 margin — so it was a legitimate upset victory for them. South Korea is the only opponent that Las Chicas Ponderosas generated a higher xG mark in the Group Stage. Colombia only produced 2.6 xG in the Group Stage — and their -0.8 net expected goal differential is the only negative mark for the eight betting favorites in the Knockout Stage. They are registering only 0.63 non-penalty kick expected goals per match along with a mere 0.33 Big Chances per match. This team is simply not comfortable controlling possession — they had the ball 60% of the time in their loss to Morocco after letting Germany control possession 67% of the time in their upset victory. Colombia ranks 16th of the 32 in the original field in host Scoring Chances and Shots on Target. Their back line will be without Real Sociedad defender Manuela Vanegas who got suspended for this match after picking up a second yellow card. Jamaica will be thrilled to engage in a similar game plan as the Moroccans did against Colombia — and the Reggae Girlz may be even better at parking the bus and waiting for the opportunities to counter-attack. They will play a similar 4-4-2 formation that will settle in at the low block. Jamaica has not conceded a goal in this tournament which includes impressive scoreless draws against France and Brazil. Their 77 clearances are the most in this tournament. They have an outstanding keeper in Rebecca Spencer — the Tottenham goalie has 17 saves on the 17 shots on target she has faced. The Reggae Girlz are led by Allyson and Chantelle Swaby with the sister duo controlling the middle at center back. And while Jamaica has scored only one goal, their ability to score goals in the Knockout Stage now should not be underestimated. Forward Khadija Shaw scored 20 goals last season for Manchester City.
FINAL TAKE: The expectations Colombia has in this match may not be doing them any favors. This is the program’s second Knockout Stage match after losing to the USA by a 2-0 score in the Round of 16 in the Knockout Stage of the 2015 tournament. But the Reggae Girlz are true underdogs in their first Knockout Stage match having to rely on a GoFundMe campaign to find the money to compete at this tournament after their financial requests were denied by the federation. This shapes up to be a low-scoring match with things being scoreless after 90 minutes highly likely — but I am not going to be surprised if the Jamaicans score the upset. 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Match of the Year with Jamaica (225325) plus the goal-line versus Colombia (225326). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-07-23 |
Nigeria W +1.5 v. England W |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 25 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR MONDAY AM, 8/7:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Monday morning is with Nigeria plus the +1.5 goal-line versus England in the Round of 16 in the Women’s World Cup. Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) did not lose a match in the Group Stage despite competing in perhaps the most challenging group. The Super Falcons advanced to the Knockout Stage with a 0-0 draw against Ireland on Monday in a match where they knew they only needed one point. They beat the host nation Australia, also in the Round of 16. Perhaps their most impressive result was their 0-0 draw with a Canadian team that won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. England (W3-D0-L0) is one of three teams to win all three Group Stage matches after a 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. The Lionesses may be overvalued by the betting market right now after benefiting from being the host nation of last year’s Euro Championship which they won despite losing the expected goals battle in several of those matches including the finals against Germany. England is also dealing with several injuries that are keeping them from being at full strength. The Lionesses will be very happy with just a one-goal win — asking more from them may be too much to ask. Take Nigeria plus the goal-line. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports CA$HED with Sweden plus the +0.5 goal-line against the USA in the Women’s World Cup early Sunday morning to further their 12 of 19 (63%) Soccer run! Frank also has an 8 of 12 (67%) Soccer Match of the Year/Month mark after DELIVERING his 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year last month with the Mexico-Panama Under — and now he UNLEASHES his 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year for an early Sunday morning match on FS1-TV! DO NOT MISS OUT!
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08-07-23 |
Nigeria W v. England W UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:30 AM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318) in the Round of 16 Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Nigeria (W1-D2-L0) advanced to the Knockout Stage of the Women’s World Cup with a 0-0 draw with Ireland on Monday. England (W3-D0-L0) completed a sweep of their three Group Stage opponents with their 6-1 victory against China on Tuesday. This match is being played on a neutral field at Brisbane Stadium in Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: England enters this match with an overrated offensive attack that looks more impressive after scoring six times against China. They scored in the fourth minute of that match which changed the complexion of the contest since China needed a victory to advance to the Knockout Stage — so they had to play more aggressively which contributed to the blowout. The Lionesses only registered 2.6 expected goals in that match so they significantly overperformed the underlying metrics. England only scored one goal apiece in their first two matches at this event — and their 6.3 expected goals are just the ninth most in the tournament. The Lionesses are dealing with several injuries with striker Beth Mead and midfielder Fran Kirby out with injuries before the World Cup started. Keira Walsh is dealing with a knee that leaves her in doubt to play this morning. They are far from full strength in their attack. Frankly, this England side is probably a bit overvalued right now on the heels of winning the Euro Championship last summer. Not only did the Lionesses have the benefit of home-field advantage in hosting the event but they were fortunate in several of their matches after losing the expected goals battle. But England has been dominant on defense despite playing without their best defender, Leah Williamson. The penalty kick goal China scored is the only goal they have allowed. Their 0.9 expected goals China managed is the most an opponent has generated in this event — and their total expected goals allowed is just 1.9 xGA. They face a dangerous opponent in Nigeria who is a disciplined underdog that will be content in giving up possession while limiting high-quality scoring opportunities. Despite allowing the fourth most touches of the 16 teams in the Knockout Stage, they rank fifth in the tournament by limiting their opponents on target to just 22.9% of their shot attempts. In their scoreless draw with Ireland, they held the Irish women to just 0.5 expected goals while managing only 1.1 expected goals themselves. The Super Falcons have scored only three goals in this tournament while registering just 3.0 expected goals. But they have allowed only two goals with an xGA of just 4.1.
FINAL TAKE: Nigeria has played two matches to scoreless draws with their 0-0 draw with Canada perhaps being most telling since the Canadians are one of the best teams in the world who won the 2021 Olympics in Tokyo. Nigeria survived perhaps the toughest group in this tournament that included host nation Australia as well as a disappointed Canada squad that did not advance along with a feisty Ireland side. I considered the Super Falcons plus the +1.5 goals but concluded the Under was the preferred option given the strength of England’s defense (I think a 2-0 England win is more likely than a 2-1 win for the Lionesses). 25* Women’s World Cup Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Nigeria (225317) and England (225318). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-06-23 |
USA W v. Sweden W +0.5 |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 5:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sweden (225314) plus the goal-line versus the United States (225313) in the Round of 16 in the Knockout State of the Women’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W3-D0-L0) completed their sweep of their three Group G matches with a 2-0 victory against Argentina on Wednesday. The United States (W1-D2-L0) survived a late shot that hit the post to hold on to a 0-0 draw with Portugal which is the result they needed to finish in second place in Group E and advance to the Knockout Stage. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Melbourne Rectangular Stadium in Australia.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The United States are failing to meet the sky-high expectations of being the best women’s team in the world for years during a span that includes winning two straight Women’s World Cups. After settling with draws against the Netherlands and Portugal, this is the first American team in this tournament that did not win at least two of their Group Stage matches. While the roster remains loaded with talent, this is a team in transition to the next generation. Cohesion has been a problem with the attack lacking creativity and being saddled with underwhelming finishing. Manager Vlatko Andonovski is under fire for uninspiring tactics and stubbornness in not using his bench which should offer a big advantage for the Americans. This is his first World Cup managing this team — the players may not be responding to his leadership skills. The team settled for only a Bronze Medal in the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Captain Alex Morgan has admitted the team is “out of sync.” The underlying metrics confirm the disappointing play of the number-one-ranked team in the world. Their -3.8 net expected goal differential is the worst mark in the entire World Cup. They have a -0.7 win expectation relative to their initial betting odds per match. While they rank four in the tournament in scoring chances, they fall to 26th of the 32 sides in shots on goal. Still, this remains a team that is W10-D0-L0 in their last 12 matches in international play. And the Stars and Stripes may be playing the best defense in the entire World Cup with just one goal conceded on only one shot on target and a mere 11 shots allowed overall in their three matches. But the loss of attacking midfielder Rose Lavelle is devastating for this match — she is suspended after accumulating yellow cards. Lavelle is one of their most reliable scorers — so losing the veteran given their bad vibes on offense is tough. Andonovsky may be tempted to move Julie Ertz up from midfield to her previous position in the midfield to bolster the attack — but doing so risks losing chemistry in the back line. My experience handicapping international soccer since 2010 is that teams looking to flip the switch from disappointing results rarely can suddenly discover their mojo. The Americans remain loaded with talent — but they are playing without confidence while having the weight of the world on their shoulders. That’s not a good combination. And here comes FIFA’s number three ranked team in the world who finished in third place in the 2019 World Cup before winning a Silver Medal at the 2021 Olympics. Sweden is one of three teams to win all three of their matches in the Group Stage. They have scored nine times while conceding a goal only once. The Blue and Yellow play a stifling defense that has limited their three Group Stage opponents to seeing just 25.9% of their shots finish on target. And manager Peter Gerhardsson had the opportunity to rest his starters in their final match on Wednesday. While the US had nine of their starting XI on the pitch in their critical match against Portugal, Gerhardsson made nine changes for the match with Argentina. He has played 22 of the 23 players on his roster — so this is not only a more rested roster but one with more experienced depth in this event. Only their center-back dynamic duo of Amanda Ilestedy and Magdalena Eriksson have started all three matches.
FINAL TAKE: Sweden is very familiar with and will be very confident playing the Americans. These two sides last played in the Group Stage in the 2021 Olympics against the USA “A-Team” — and they clocked them by a 3-0 score. In the last three meetings between these teams in the World Cup, each team won a match with the third match resulting in a draw. Now the Swedes are peaking with the US seemingly in trouble. It would be foolish to count out such a talented team as the USA out of this contest, but the opportunity to cash a winning ticket if this score remains tied after regulation time is too good to pass up — especially since the Blue and Yellow could very well win the match and then move forward to win this tournament. 25* Women’s World Cup USA-Sweden Fox-TV Special with Sweden (225314) plus the goal-line versus the United States (225313). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-06-23 |
USA W v. Sweden W UNDER 2 |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
105 |
8 h 48 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY AM, 8/6: My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday morning is with Under the Total in the Round of 16 match between the United States and Sweden in the Women’s World Cup. The United States (W1-D2-L0) have only scored once in their last two matches after a 0-0 draw with Portugal in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. They have only scored four times in this tournament with an average of one goal per 15.5 shots attempts. But while the scoring attack is being loudly criticized, the Stars and Stripes may be playing the best defense in the entire World Cup with just one goal conceded on only one shot on target and a mere 11 shots allowed overall in their three matches. Sweden (W3-D0-L0) is a defense-first club that is very content in using their 4-2-3-1 formation to muck matches up while playing at a slow pace. The Blue and Yellow have only allowed one goal in their three matches after blanking Argentina, 3-0, on Wednesday. They are playing a stifling defense that has limited their three Group Stage opponents to seeing just 25.9% of their shots finish on target. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is on a 10 of 16 (63%) All-Sports run with featured 25*/20*/10* plays which has continued his 167 of 273 (61%) All-Sports mark since March 9th! Frank DELIVERED his 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year last month with the Mexico-Panama Under — and now he furthers his 11 of 18 (61%) Soccer run with the USA-Sweden goal-line winner on Fox-TV early Sunday morning at 5 AM ET! WATCH & WIN (maybe on the DVR) — and BANK on Frank!
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07-16-23 |
Panama v. Mexico UNDER 2.25 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126) in the finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Panama (W3-D2-L0) reached the championship match of the Gold Cup on Wednesday by beating the United States in penalty kicks (5-4) after their semifinals match remained deadlocked at 1-1 after extra time. Mexico (W4-D0-L1) advanced to the finals of this tournament with a 3-0 victory against Jamaica on Wednesday. This match is being played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico has found their mojo again under manager Jaime Lozano who took over for Diego Cocca after El Tri got trounced by the United States by a 3-0 score in the semifinals of the CONCACAF Nations League last month. The improved play has started with their defense as they have allowed only two goals in their five matches — and one of those conceded goals was against Qatar when they were playing with a rotated starting XI in the final group stage match with the luxury of having first place in their group all but wrapped up. Mexico has held their opponents to just 30 shots in this tournament — an average of just six per match. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) has been only 1.5 goals. Their veteran keeper Guillermo Ochoa has registered three clean sheets. El Tri did score an impressive three goals against a strong Jamaican side but the game script of that match quickly tilted in their favor when they scored in the first two minutes. The Reggae Boyz were forced out of their preferred defensive posture playing catchup for the entire match. Panama has been deceptively strong on the defensive side of the pitch with four of the five goals they have allowed taking place after the 90th-minute mark. The lone goal the United States scored against them was at the 105th-minute mark after the match remained scoreless after the 90 minutes of regulation time.
FINAL TAKE: Panama has been blanked in four of their last five matches against Mexico — they have scored just once in those previous five encounters. Los Canaleros will engage in a defensive posture hoping to force extra time as they did against the Americans. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Panama (225125) and Mexico (225126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-12-23 |
Mexico v. Jamaica +1 |
Top |
3-0 |
Loss |
-135 |
4 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 1-0 win against Guatemala in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals the day before with a 2-0 win against Costa Rica. This match is being played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Mexico is playing better and with more energy under new head coach Jaime Lozano. After a disappointing third-place finish in the CONCACAF Nations League this year — including an embarrassing 3-0 loss to the United States last month — led to Diego Cocca getting sacked. El Tri only won three of their six matches in that competition. Mexico lost their final group stage match against Qatar by a 1-0 score — but I am not reading too much into that since El Tri was resting players after essentially clinching first place in Group B. They also got a bit unlucky in that match. But I am not going to read too much from their 4-0 victory against Honduras nor their 3-1 win against Haiti in the group stage either as those are both weak opponents. The Costa Rica squad they played in the Quarterfinals is down from previous incarnations of that national team. Facing the Reggae Boyz now will be Mexico’s toughest test since playing the USMNT last month. Jamaica reached the Semifinals of the Gold Cup for the fourth time in the last five tournaments — and this might be their best squad. The Reggae Boyz got a big injection of attacking energy with Demarai Gray choosing to leave England’s national team to play for Jamaica as a dual citizen. The Everton forward has scored two goals and added two assists in this tournament. He is joined up top by Aston Villa’s Leon Bailey who has two assists. And while Michail Antonio has not scored in over a year in international play, the star striker from West Ham can explode at any time after leading the Hammers to the Europa League title in the spring. Overall, the Reggae Boyz have six players who play in the English Premier League. They finished in second place in this tournament in 2015 and 2017. Jamaica has scored first in all four of their matches with 11 goals overall going from nine different players. But this squad remains stout defensively led by an outstanding veteran keeper in Andre Blake. They have only conceded twice including once in their impressive 1-1 draw with the United States in their opening group stage match.
FINAL TAKE: The last time Jamaica beat Mexico was by a 1-0 score in a friendly back in 2017. But the Reggae Boyz managed two draws in the last two meetings between these sides which were both CONCACAF Nations League matches with the most recent contest being in March. Jamaica can win this match — and they can certainly keep the score tied going into extra time (ensuring we cover the goal-line spread after the 90-minute regulation time). 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Jamaica (225122) plus the goal-line versus Mexico (225121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-09-23 |
Canada v. United States -0.5 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the United States (225114) minus the goal-line versus Canada (225113) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The United States (W2-D1-L0) clinched first place in their group with a 6-0 victory against Trinidad and Tobago last Sunday. Canada (W1-D2-L0) claimed second place in their group with a 4-2 win against Cuba on Tuesday. This match is being played at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE THE UNITED STATES MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Canadians had a big match against the USMNT last month in the finals of the CONCACAF Nations League — and they lost by a 2-0 score. I was (incorrectly) on the Canucks in that match (plus the goal-line) because I think very highly of their top-line talent — but those players are not competing in this tournament. Without international superstar Alphonso Davies (Bayern Munich) along with Jonathan David, Cyle Latin, and Taken Buchanan, manager John Herdman simply lacks the playmaking talent and speed that makes his low-block counter-attacking system effective. I applaud Herdman for taking a similar approach as the Americans in using this Golf Cup tournament as an opportunity to offer experience and evaluate the talent of their younger players. This approach will better prepare both national teams for the 2026 World Cup. But the Canucks simply do not have as deep a roster as the Stars and Stripes (nor Mexico, for that matter). And it is showing in their results. Canada had only scored four combined goals in their previous four matches before scoring four times against a subpar Cuba side. Conceding two goals to the Cubans is not a good sign for what has been a shaky defense that has allowed two of their four goals after the 89th minute in the match (including injury time). They blew a 2-1 lead late in their match against Guadeloupe who have been the darlings of the tournament. That said, Canada should be outclassing Guadeloupe, a small country without a deep soccer tradition of success in international competitions. A vast majority of the US squad that lifted the Nations League trophy last month is not on this roster. But the roster is filled with experienced players from the MLS in what is developing into a golden era for American soccer in the build-up to hosting the 2026 World Cup. They opened with a draw against Jamaica in a result that did not bother me at all when considering the Reggae Boyz had six players on their roster who currently play in the English Premier League. The USMNT has since waxed St. Kitts and Nevis and then Trinidad and Tobago by successive 6-0 scores. Admittedly, this is weak competition, especially with the Soca Warriors being way down right now. But Team USA is clicking under interim manager B.J. Callaghan with them being unbeaten in their last five matches with 18 goals scored and just one goal conceded.
FINAL TAKE: It is very difficult to defeat the United States in these continental competitions when they are playing on home soil. The US is unbeaten in their last 22 matches against Canada when playing on American soil with Les Rouges' last victory being in 1957. The US has won four of their last five matches against the Canucks in the Gold Cup with one draw being the lone blemish. Canada’s best results against the US recently have been in World Cup qualifying matches that were played in Canada — and, of course, their best players like Davies and David were critical components to those good results. In a battle of B-teams in Cincinnati, the USMNT should win in regulation time. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the United States (225114) minus the goal-line versus Canada (225113). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-18-23 |
Canada +0.5 v. United States |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations League. THE SITUATION: Canada advanced to the Finals of this competition with their 2-0 win against Panama in the Semifinals on Thursday. The United States reached the Finals with a 3-0 win against Mexico in their Semifinals match on Thursday. The match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE CANADA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It was a very emotional match for the USMNT against their biggest rival in Mexico three days ago. There were fights in the stands, aggression on the pitch, and plenty of red cards got issued. The Americans dominated the match — but it was against an El Tri side far from full strength with Raul Jimenez, Hirving Lozano, and Tecatito all not on active roster for these competitions. Not only are those players three of the best on the Mexican national team, but they are also veteran leaders of the squad for years. Given the red card situation from Thursday, the Stars and Stripes will play this match without midfielder Weston McKenzie and fullback Sergino Dest. McKenzie is one of the best players on the team who starts for Juventus in Serie A. Dest is one of the young emerging stars for the team who plays internationally for Barcelona. An emotional letdown after that victory against El Tri is a real possibility. This is an American team in transition as it begins to prepare for the 2026 World Cup as the host nation. It was announced that Gregg Berhalter will return as the manager after six months away from the team after the 2022 World Cup in the fall. B.J. Callaghan serve as the interim manager tonight in his second match as the caretaker for the team after Anthony Hudson initially served as the temporary manager. USA has talent with Folarin Balogun having made his national team debut on Thursday. He joins Giovanni Reyna who has yet to resolve his controversy with Berhalter that resulted in his not playing in the World Cup. The Americans are led by Christian Pulisic who scored twice on Thursday. But the face of this generation of Team USA could not hold a starting job for a struggling Chelsea side in the English Premier League this season and will move to another professional club. Pulisic will not be the best player on the pitch tonight — more on that in a moment. On the surface, there are reasons for optimism for the USMNT after reaching the Knockout Stage at the World Cup before losing to the Netherlands by a 3-1 score. Their nil-nil draw with England in the Group Stage was seen as a major triumph. But the USA also settled for a draw with an underwhelming Wales side — and their only victory was against an Iran side that was one of the lowest-ranked teams in the competition. Canada has beaten five of the last six CONCACAF opponents they have played after their victory against Panama on Thursday. Manager John Herdman played the long game in that match as well by having Alphonso Davies come off the bench — and he immediately scored at the 69-minute mark to put that match away. The Bayern Munich midfielder is the best player in this contest tonight — and he is joined by a talented forward in Jonathan David who is Lille’s top striker in Ligue 1. Les Rouges have several players who play internationally — and they have good cohesion having played for Hardman for years. They went into the World Cup with high expectations but could not get over the hump playing in a very difficult group. They lost by 1-0 and 2-1 scores to Belgium and Morocco. They took a 1-0 lead against Croatia before losing by a 4-1 score. Their goal for the 2026 World Cup will be to reach the Knockout Stage (hopefully with an easier Group Stage draw) and perhaps reach the Quarterfinals. Success at the international level is the next challenge for this side. But when playing fellow CONCACAF teams, Canada is confident. They finished in first place in the World Cup qualifying stage for CONCACAF. Their 11 goals in Nations League play are the most in the competition. Les Rouges will be content to play back and go on the counter-attack led by Davies who is one of the fastest players in the world. The USMNT will control possession — but they are cohesion issues to work out with the mix of Pulisic and Reyna with Balogun and they have been vulnerable to counter-attacking tactics like Wales in their opening World Cup match last fall.
FINAL TAKE: Upsetting the United States would be a huge accomplishment since the Americans have won the last two CONCACAF titles in the 2021 Gold Cup and the 2019 inaugural CONCACAF Nations League. But Canada won the last meeting between these teams with a 2-0 victory in January 2022 in the World Cup qualifying stage. While that match was in Canada, they did earn a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in the US in July of 2021. Les Rouges have not beaten Team USA on American soil since July of 1957 — but the home-field edge for the USMNT will not be overwhelming tonight. Canada just played at Allegiant Stadium on Thursday so there is familiarity with the pitch. And the mood here in Las Vegas is tepid after the violence in the stands and ensuing traffic jams outside the stadium. Mexico was the big match — now it’s “just the (nice) Canadians” — but the Americans are the team with the bullseye on their jersey for our neighbors up north. Finally, remember that all we need is a tie score after 90 minutes of regulation time (plus stoppage time) to cash this ticket. If this match goes for extra time or is settled by penalty kicks, we win. 25* CONCACAF Nations League Match of the Year with Canada (235609) plus the goal-line versus the United States (235610). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-23 |
Inter Milan v. Manchester City -1 |
Top |
0-1 |
Push |
0 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City reached the Finals of the UEFA Champions League after a 4-0 victory at home against Real Madrid on May 17th that cemented their 5-1 aggregate victory. Inter Milan beat AC Milan in the second leg of the Semifinals showdown with their crosstown rivals to advance with a 3-0 aggregate score.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Inter Milan completed their Serie A campaign last Saturday in a 1-0 win at Torino in a match where they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.55 to 0.79 margin. Le Nerazzurri are historically one of the top two sides in Italy — and perhaps they are top-ten in the world over the last five or so years. But this year’s club was the beneficiary of some good fortune in the Champions League. They did survive a difficult Group Stage that included Bayern Munich and Barcelona — beating Barcelona at home in early October ended up being the difference for them after losing both matches to the Bundesliga giants. Their draw in the Knockout Stage was as good as can ever be expected. They got FC Porto in the Round of 16 and then Benfica in the Quarterfinals. After disposing of those two clubs from the Primeira League of Portugal, they then drew fellow Serie A competitor AC Milan who was missing their best striker Rafael Leo in the first leg. They also got both those matches in their San Siro home stadium which they share with AC Milan. Le Nerazzurri finished only tied for third place in Serie A this season — and they were fifth in that league with a W9-D3-L7 record on the road. They have an older roster featuring the 37-year-old Edin Dzeko, the 34-year-old Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and the 30-year-old Romelu Lukaku coming off the bench. While the 25-year-old Lautaro Martinez is their best player and could be destined for a big contract in the English Premier League someday, Lukaku and Mkhitaryan are EPL castaways at this point in their careers. The quality of play in Serie A (and the Primeira League) is a few notches below the level of play in the EPL that Man City dominated. The Cityzens are looking to achieve a historical treble with the EPL title, last week's FA Cup title, and now the European Championship. That Red Devils team they played last week is probably better than this Inter Milan side. There is a route for victory for Le Nerazzuri with their 5-3-2 defensive structure and their outstanding keeper Andre Onana keeping them in a low-scoring match. But if — and when — Man City scores, then Inter Milan will have to eventually shift out of their defensive approach which will open things up for the Sky Blues to counter-attack with more scoring opportunities. Man City was on a 25-match unbeaten streak through clinching the EPL title last month. Ignore their recent results outside the FA Cup title last week since manager Pep Guardiola deployed a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury to prepare for these two huge matches this month. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. After not scoring last Saturday against Manchester United, he could be in store for a big match after being brought in last summer specifically in being the final piece to bring the Champions League title to the club. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.
FINAL TAKE: Guardiola was brought into Man City to bring the fabled franchise their first Champions League title. After becoming the hegemony of the EPL, this is the final trophy for Pep and this core group of players to claim — and they really want it. They were favorites to win the title match two years ago before getting upset by Chelsea. They then blew a big first-leg lead against Real Madrid in the semifinals last year. The rosters on those Chelsea and Real Madrid teams were much better — and battle-tested against better domestic and UCL competition. The Cityzens will not take this challenge lightly. After rallying to upend Arsenal in the EPL after fronting them a big lead, I think they are a team of destiny who will seize the moment with a big win. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-03-23 |
Manchester United v. Manchester City -1 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
17 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401) in the FA Cup Finals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W5-D0-L0) reached the English FA Cup Finals with a 3-0 victory against Sheffield United on April 22nd. Manchester United (W5-D0-L0) joined them in the championship match the next day with a 0-0 match with Brighton and Hove Albion that the Red Devils on penalty kicks on April 23rd. This match is being played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United enters this match on a four-game winning streak after a 2-1 win at home against Fulham that completed their English Premier League campaign on Sunday. The Red Devils qualified for the UEFA Champions League by finishing in third place in the EPL table with 75 points — but they still were far off from Man City who won the league title with 89 points. Man United was the second-best side (to the Cityzens) when playing at home. They won 15 of their 19 matches at home at Old Trafford with just one defeat in EPL action. They scored 36 goals at home in those 19 league matches while conceding just 10 times. They generated an impressive +24.88 net expected goal differential (xGD) when playing at home in those 19 EPL matches. But it was a different story for the Red Devils when they played on the road. Man United was just W8-D3-L8 on the road in the EPL this season — and they were outscored by 10 goals in those 19 contests. They only scored 22 goals in those 19 road matches — and they conceded 33 times. They have a -3.27 net xGD in those 19 road matches — and they ranked only six in the EPL in expected Points when playing on the road. While the Red Devils’ played elite-level defense at home in Old Trafford, they were middle of the pack on the road. Manager Erik Ten Hag’s side ranked only seventh in the EPL in non-penalty kick expected Goals Allowed this season. Even more troubling, Man United was beaten by seven of the other top-eight teams in the EPL table when playing on the road with a 2-2 draw at Tottenham being their best result. In these eight road matches, the Red Devils scored only eight goals while conceding 28 goals. Five of their losses to the top-nine sides were by multiple goals. Ten Hag’s team enters this match not at full strength with Anthony and Anthony Martial dealing with injuries. This leaves Man United lacking depth at the striker position which means Ten Hag will likely move Marcus Rashford to the #10 position despite his being more effective at wing. And here comes Man City rested and determined to pull off the rare treble. With the EPL title in hand, the Sky Blues look to take the FA Cup before playing for the UEFA Champions League title next Saturday against Inter Milan. Man City’s 25-match unbeaten streak was snapped last Sunday in a 1-0 loss at Brentford last Sunday to conclude their EPL campaign — but manager Pep Guardiola deplored a heavily rotated starting XI with the luxury of already clinching the EPL title the week earlier. In FA Cup play, the Cityzens scored 17 times and did not concede a goal. Stefan Ortega will continue to serve as the team’s keeper in Cup action as he looks to continue his five-straight clean sheets streak. Frankly, he has been more reliable this year than Emerson who will get the start next week in the Champions League Finals. Man City is led by Erling Harland who has scored 52 goals across all competitions in his first season with the Sky Blues. And the Cityzens have been reliable when playing on the road — they won 11 of their 19 road matches in the EPL with a +18 net goal differential and an average of +1.01 net xGD per match.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their minds as well after losing to Man United at Old Trafford in the last match between these teams by a 2-1 score on January 14th. But the Cityzens have still won three of the last four matches between these two teams while outscoring them by a 12-4 goal margin. 25* FA Cup Match of the Year with Manchester City (200402) minus the goal-line versus Manchester United (200401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-23 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Leeds United OVER 3 |
Top |
4-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W17-D6-L14) closes out their season coming off a 3-1 loss to Brentford last Saturday. Leeds United (W7-D10-L20) is winless in their last eight matches after a 3-1 loss at West Ham United on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be a wild affair with both teams having things still at stake. Tottenham needs a win to qualify for European competition next season — although they can still qualify with a draw and some help). The Hotspurs are not playing well under new manager Ryan Mason. They are winless in their last nine matches on the road. They have conceded five combined goals in their last five matches with shaky play from their backline. They are also playing without their world-class keeper Hugo Lloris — Fraser Forster is a downgrade at the position. Tottenham has only one clean sheet in their last 11 contests across all competitions. But they have scored in 11 of their last 12 matches in the English Premier League. With this potentially being Harry Kane’s last match with the team given the rumors that he will move on in the summer transfer window, he will be motivated to go out with a bang for his longtime club. He has a very appetizing opponent in Leeds United who are the worst defensive side in the EPL. The Whites have allowed 74 goals this season, the most in the league. More than 33% of the shots they are giving up are on target — so Kane and company should have plenty of opportunities to pad their stats. Leeds has allowed two or more goals in four straight matches and seven of their last eight contests. They have not generated a clean sheet in 14 straight matches. But the Whites have scored a healthy 47 times with their aggressive style of play in the EPL — and they have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches. Leeds have seen four or more combined goals scored in three of their last four matches. And they will be playing with desperation this morning since they must win this match to avoid relegation while getting some help in the results from some other matches.
FINAL TAKE: The final day in the EPL tends to see higher-scoring matches — and that will likely be the case in this one with two struggling defensive sides engaged in a contest with both teams needing to get a win. The reverse fixture between these teams resulted in a 4-3 win for Tottenham at home on November 12th. 25* English Premier League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Tottenham (200025) and Leeds United (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-25-23 |
Chelsea v. Manchester United -1 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). THE SITUATION: Man United (W21-D6-L9) has won two matches in a row after their 1-0 win against Bournemouth on Saturday. Chelsea (W11-D10-L15) comes off a 1-0 loss to Man City on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE THE RED DEVILS MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United needs one more point in their final two matches to secure a top-four finish in the English Premier League table which qualifies them for the UEFA Champions League next year. But manager Erik ten Hag would prefer to get this accomplishment out of the way as soon as possible so he can rest players in the final EPL match of the season to prepare for the FA Cup final coming up against Man City. The squad looks to get back their leading scorer Marcus Rashford for this match as well with him in training this week after missing time with a leg injury. Rashford might have played in the match against Bournemouth but he then got ill which delayed his return to the pitch. Man United has been tough to beat at home at Old Trafford this season where they have won 13 of their 17 EPL matches while losing only one time. They have a +17.2 expected net goal differential at home as compared to their -4.3 expected net goal differential on the road in league play. The Red Devils have not allowed a goal at home in EPL play since early February with five victories amongst those six clean sheets. Chelsea has nothing to play for with their current standing in 12 place — they are safe from relegation but can not qualify for any European tournaments next year. Disarray with the ownership contributed to some questionable transfer signings of overrated past-their-prime talent. Unsurprisingly, the predictable injury bug followed. Mason Mount, Ben Chilwell, N’Golo Kante, Reese James, and Mateo Kovacic headline their long injured list — and now Benoit Badiashile joins that group with the defender suffering a groin injury that could keep him sidelined for months. The team is on their third manager this season with Frank Lampard agreeing to serve as a short-term caretaker after Graham Potter was sacked on April 6th. While Lampard was a legendary player for the Blues, he was a miserable failure for the franchise as their manager several seasons ago — and he then was ineffective as the manager for Everton before getting fired earlier in the year. Predictably, the players have not responded to Lampard’s temporary reinstatement with the team. Since he has taken over, Chelsea is third worst in the league with seven losses and only three points in nine matches. Their lone results were a win against 15th-place Bournemouth and a draw at home to 16th-place Nottingham Forest. The defense has been atrocious under Lampard with the team allowing 1.43 expected goals per match and 2.9 Big Chances per match under his second tenure. The Blues have not produced a clean sheet since he took over. Chelsea is the poster child for a team with their minds focused on the proverbial beach before former Tottenham and Paris Saint-Germain manager Mauricio Pochettino takes over to begin fixing the many problems with this squad.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams had a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge back when Thomas Tuchel was still managing this Blues team that had higher aspirations. Chelsea ranks fourth to the bottom of the league in points generated on the road. Beating the Blues always gives Man United motivation. 25* English Premier League Match of the Year with Manchester United (200130) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (200129). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-17-23 |
Real Madrid v. Manchester City OVER 3 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid settled for a 1-1 draw at home in the first leg of this semifinals last Tuesday. Manchester City hosts the second leg at the Etihad.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti instructed his team to play conservatively and with caution in the first leg between these teams — and after Vinicius Junior scored the opening goal at the 36th-minute mark, this directive was even more imperative. Los Blancos do not have the same level of talent as Manchester City — but the reigning Champions League champions have plenty of star power to pull out a close match in the second leg. Real Madrid only generated 0.89 expected goals — but they executed what Ancelotti wanted by limiting the Sky Blues to just 0.37 expected goals. But Man City was able to settle for the draw when Kevin DeBruyne evened the score in the 67th minute. So it is now winner take all back at the Etihad. Los Blancos followed that match up on Saturday with a 1-0 win at home against Getafe in La Liga action. They have now scored in 16 straight matches across all competitions. They have also scored 26 goals in their 11 matches in the Champions League this season for a robust 2.36 Goals-Per-Game average. But the defensive play for Real Madrid has not been nearly as stout when playing away from home this year. In five home matches against upper-tier competition, Los Blancos held Liverpool, Chelsea RB Leipzig, Barcelona, and Real Sociedad to a combined 4.4 expected goals. But when playing on the road against those five sides, Real Madrid conceded a combined 9.5 expected goals (xG) with Liverpool accumulating 2.2 xG, Chelsea, RP Leipzig, and Barcelona all generating 1.9 xG, and Read Sociedad registering 1.9 xG. Now Los Blancos have to try to again slow down what is probably the best-attacking team in the world in this Cityzens group. Man City has scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches across all competitions after their 3-0 win at Everton on Sunday. They matched Real Madrid’s 26 goals in 11 Champions League competitions this season. Manager Pep Guardiola may have been comfortable with the conservative tactics that Ancelotti deployed last week knowing they had the advantage of the second leg being back at the Etihad. Man City has won 15 straight matches at home while scoring two or more goals in 14 of those contests. With the addition of Erling Haaland this season, Guardiola has his first world-class number-nine striker at the top of the pitch for the first time since Sergio Aguero from several seasons ago. Haaland has been a goal-scoring machine for this team with 36 goals across 33 matches in all competitions for the Sky Blues this season. But the defense has been an issue with this team. Ederson did get the clean sheet shutout on Sunday — but that was the first time he had not conceded in his last matches across all competitions. The team's two previous clean sheets were with backup keeper Stefan Ortega getting the spot start. Guardiola will not have Nathan Ake available for this match as he recovers from injury.
FINAL TAKE: This showdown of European superpowers is a rematch of the Champions League semifinals last year. In the first leg at the Etihad, Man City won by a 4-3 score in what was a wild up-and-down affair. And after scoring first in the second leg in Madrid, the Cityzens thought they were in control before Karim Benzema put his team on his back with Real Madrid scoring three late goals to steal a 6-5 aggregate score victory. Benzema exposed a shaky Man City defense against counterattacks — and he is ready to make noise again with the help of a rapidly improving Junior. But Haaland was signed in the summer to a big contract for precisely this moment. The low scoring in the first leg was the outlier between these two teams. The urgency of this tied second leg will lead to aggressive play, fireworks, and plenty of goals (one way or another) given the counter-attacking prowess of both sides. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224209) and Manchester City (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-13-23 |
Leeds United v. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200113) and Aston Villa (200114). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W4-D5-L8 ) has two straight draws in the English Premier League after their 2-2 result with West Ham United back on January 4th. Aston Villa (W6-D4-L8) comes off a 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton on January 4th.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds United is winless in their last six matches across all competitions after a 2-2 draw at Cardiff City in their FA Cup match last Sunday. The Whites have conceded at least one goal in nine of their last ten matches on the road in all competitions. Leeds United was bleeding away too many goals under previous manager Marcelo Bielsa but it has been more of the same this season under manager Jesse Marsch. The Whites have conceded 31 goals this season which is the second most in the EPL — and their 30.52 expected goals allowed (xGA) is the third most in the league. Leeds has been solid in the scoring department, however, as their 25 goals this season in league play are 11th in the EPL — and their 23.57 expected goals (xG) is the tenth-highest mark. Aston Villa comes off a disappointing 2-1 loss at home to Stevenage last Sunday in a match that eliminated them from the FA Cup. New manager Unai Emery deployed a heavily-rotated starting XI for that contest — so the regulars should be rested and ready for this match. Emery has implemented a two-striker system up top that has been more efficient for their scoring attack. After a scoring drought under previous manager Steven Gerrard which culminated in two straight blanks in EPL play, the Villans have scored 13 goals in their seven league matches under Emery while only getting blanked once. In their last nine home matches, Aston Villa has scored in eight of those contests. But they have conceded goals in six of their last seven home matches across all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a scoreless 0-0 draw at Leeds United on October 2nd in the reverse league fixture — but that was when Gerrard was still managing the Villans. Aston Villa has seen multiple goals in three of their last four matches across all competitions — and there have been three or more combined goals scored in 10 of their last 14 matches across all competitions including six of their last eight in the EPL. Leeds United has seen three or more combined goals scored in 10 of their last 12 matches across all competitions — and there have been four or more combined goals scored in four of their last five matches. 10* EPL Friday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200113) and Aston Villa (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-12-23 |
Chelsea v. Fulham UNDER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200109) and Fulham (200110). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W7-D4-L6) has lost four of their last six matches in the English Premier League after their 1-0 loss at home to Manchester City last Thursday. Fulham (W8-D4-L6 ) has won four matches in a row across all competitions with their 1-0 victory at Leicester City back on Tuesday of last week.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Fulham enters this match having won four games in a row across all competitions. With their victory against Leicester City last week, they climbed to 7th place in the English Premier League table. But, unfortunately for the Cottagers, striker Alexsandar Mitrovic incurred his fifth yellow card of the season in the match against the Foxes which will leave him suspended for this match due to the accumulated yellow cards. In their three previous EPL matches this season without Mitrovic on the pitch, Fulham has scored just one goal. The Cottagers will continue to play cautiously without Mitrovic — they registered their second straight clean sheet and third in their last four matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Hull City in the fourth round of the FA Cup last Saturday. Chelsea is reeling with five losses in their last seven matches across all competitions after a 4-0 loss at Manchester City on Sunday in the FA Cup. The Blues are dealing with a host of injuries which has compounded a fundamental roster problem that led to manager Thomas Tuchel getting fired in late September. New manager Graham Potter has brought his counter-attacking approach that was successful with Brighton and Hove Albion — but the Chelsea attack remains lacking. The Blues have not scored more than three goals in an EPL match all season. Furthermore, they have been blanked in two straight matches while scoring just three times in their last eight matches across all competitions. Injuries to Raheem Sterling and Christian Pulisic along with wingers like Reese James and Ben Chilwell have left the attack limited. Chelsea has only scored 20 goals in their 17 EPL matches and seven of those goals come from players currently out with injury. But the Blues are still playing solid defense for Potter as they have given up just three combined goals in their last five EPL contests.
FINAL TAKE: If styles make fights, this match shapes up to be cagey and cautious for both sides. Chelsea will try to outlast the Cottagers playing on the road at Craven Cottage. Fulham still appreciates they are hosting a Big Six side with high-priced talent and probably still a better overall roster. Expect a lower-scoring match. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200109) and Fulham (200110). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-18-22 |
France v. Argentina OVER 2 |
Top |
2-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062) in the Finals of the Men’s World Cup. THE SITUATION: France (W5-D0-L1) advances to the Finals of the World Cup with their 2-0 victory against Morocco on Wednesday. Argentina (W5-D0-L1) reached the Finals the day before with their 3-0 victory against Croatia.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: France has been the highest-scoring side in this competition with 13 goals scored. The deeper metrics confirm the scoring prowess of Les Bleus with 13.1 expected goals. In their victory against Morocco, they posted 2.25 xG even against a defensive side. Led by Kylian Mbappe who has scored five goals in this event, this team has probably the best player in the world right now. But the continuing concern for manager Didier Deschamps has been the shaky play of his back line. France has conceded at least one goal in five of their six matches. Overall, Les Bleus have allowed five goals — and the expected goals they have allowed in this tournament suggest it should be even worse with their 7.37 xGA mark. In their last three matches in the Knockout Stage, France has allowed 6.03 xGA with all three of these opponents reaching 1.43 xGA or higher. To compound matters, the “air conditioning” bug that has been spreading in Qatar — blamed on the constant air conditioning blasting throughout the city for this world event — has impacted the Les Bleus locker room with defenders Raphael Varane and Ibrahima Konate under the weather. Varane, at least, should still play — but it is a worry if he is not at 100% overcoming a flu bug. Argentina has been dynamic in their scoring attack with 12 goals scored in this tournament — and their xG is 13.72. They generated 3.19 xG in their victory against the stout defense of Croatia. La Albiceleste has scored two or more goals in five straight games. This has been a breakout tournament for Enzo Fernandez and Julian Alvarez. But the straw that stirs the drink remains Lionel Messi who has been outstanding in the pursuit of his first World Cup title to put the bow on his illustrious career. Messi has scored five goals himself in this event — and he is playing to cement his status as the Greatest Of All Time in this match. But Le Albiceleste is not strong with their fullbacks — and they have surrendered leads too often in this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Championship matches tend to be cagey affairs that usually are lower-scoring matches — and that is how this match should initially play out. But if and when a team scores the first goal, this contest should open up. France is a counter-attacking side — so expect Argentina to control possession. With the Mbappe versus Messi narrative involved in this match along with two shaky defenses, expect a higher-scoring contest. 25* World Cup Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between France (225061) and Argentina (225062). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-28-22 |
Real Madrid v. Liverpool -0.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Liverpool reached the finals of the European championship with their 3-2 victory at Villarreal which gave them a 5-2 aggregate win in the semifinals. Real Madrid rallied from losing the first leg at Manchester City by a 4-3 score to level the aggregate score in regulation time in the second leg before scoring in extra time to take the 6-5 aggregate victory. This match is being played on a neutral field at the State de France in Saint-Denis, France, just north of Paris.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Real Madrid has had a difficult road to reach the finals with a grueling knock stage that involved matches against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea, and Man City. But Los Blancos consistently lost the expected goals battle in those contests — and they have a -1.9 net expected goals differential in those six knockout stage contests. Defense is an issue for manager Carlo Ancelotti’s team as they allowed 1.8 expected goals per match in their six knockout stage matches. They have resisted a clean sheet in any of the six legs in the knockout stage. Furthermore, much of the magic with this Real Madrid side came at home. Against Man City in the second leg of the semifinals, the Cityzens seemingly had the match in hand with a 1-0 lead before Rodrygo scored in the 90th and then 91st minute to force extra time where the sublime Karim Benzema scored the game-winner on a penalty kick in front of an ecstatic crowd. Los Blancos posted a +0.75 expected goals differential when playing at home — but they had a -0.16 net expected goals differential in the Champions League when playing on the road. Liverpool settled for second place in the English Premier League by one point — but they remain very motivated to bring home this trophy. They have scored at least two goals in 12 of their 15 Champions League matches. Additionally, they have only lost once in their last 12 Champions League matches (an irrelevant second-leg loss to Inter Milan where they still won the aggregate score comfortably) — and they won 10 of those matches. They have scored at least two goals in 11 of their last 12 Champions League matches — and they have scored at least three goals in six of those contests. The Reds’ defense has also been solid as they have only conceded more than 1.0 expected goals once in their six matches in the knockout stage.
FINAL TAKE: This one is personal for Mo Salah who had to leave the Finals of the 2018 Champions League against this same Real Madrid side after receiving a cheap shot from Sergio Ramos that separated his shoulder. Salah has commented that losing the 2018 final was the biggest professional disappointment of his career. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with Liverpool (224202) minus the goal-line versus Real Madrid (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-22-22 |
Leeds United v. Brentford OVER 3 |
Top |
2-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
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At 11:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W8-D11-L18) needs a result to potentially pass Burnley to avoid relegation after settling for a 1-1 draw at home against Brighton and Hove Albion last Sunday. Brentford (W13-D7-L17) has won seven of their last ten matches after their 3-2 win at Everton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds has to play aggressively in this match — they trail Burnley by 13 goals in the differential department so they have to assume they need to register a victory to secure the three points since a draw by the Clarets at home against Newcastle would mean a draw in this match would not be enough for the Peacocks. The Whites did generate 2.37 expected goals (xG) against the Seagulls last week — but they surrendered 2.05 xG in the draw. Leeds is one of the worst defensive teams in the English Premier League. They have conceded the most Big Chances that have scoring likelihood of at least 35%. They have conceded 10 goals in their last four matches. On the road, the Peacocks have allowed at least two goals in six of their last nine contests. They have allowed 2.05 expected goals allowed (xGA) in their 18 previous road matches. Brentford’s attack has been elevated since Christian Eriksen became a regular on the pitch. In those ten matches, the Bees have scored 2.0 Goals-Per-Game — and they rank fourth in Big Chances created during that stretch. Their xG of 1.99 in those ten matches suggests their improved scoring prowess is likely to be sustainable. In their last two matches, Brentford has scored six times with an xG of 5.20.
FINAL TAKE: In the reverse fixture at Leeds on December 5th, both teams scored twice in the 2-2 draw. Expect another higher-scoring contest with Leeds United desperate for the victory which should create scoring opportunities for Brentford in the counter-attack. The Bees will want to play hard in front of their home fans in their final home match in their first season back promoted in the English top flight. They also have a chance to finish in the top-ten with a result. 25* EPL Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200005) and Brentford (200006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-17-22 |
Liverpool v. Southampton UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
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At 2:45 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D8-L2) returns to their English Premier League schedule after beating Aston Villa by a 2-1 score last Tuesday. Southampton (W9-D13-L14) has lost seven of their last ten matches after their 3-0 loss at Brentford back on May 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool comes off a 1-0 victory against Chelsea in the finals of the FA Cup on Saturday that was resolved via a shootout after 120 minutes of scoreless play. Mo Salah and Virgil Van Dijk left that match early with injuries that keeps them off the eligible roster for this match. Manager Jurgen Klopp has dug deep to his bench for this match — and the result is a starting XI that lacks many of their top attackers. Sadio Mane is also not playing — and their winter transfer, Luis Diaz, is on the bench. The top two attackers are Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino in the starting XI, but both are both limited. Jota is a poacher who has had success when joining Salah and Mane up top — but he is not a lead dog as he demonstrated in his time with Wolverhampton. Firmino appears past his prime for the last two seasons and has scored only nine goals this year. The Reds will also not have Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andre Robertson who play important roles in the attack on the wing. And because Klopp is relying on backups for his back line, expect a more cautious approach. Liverpool needs the win, not a blowout. Southampton only generated 1.32 expected goals in their loss to Brentford ten days ago. While the Saints have little to play for as they sit in 15th place in the EPL table but safe from relegation, don’t be surprised if they relish the opportunity to play spoiler and ruin Liverpool’s title aspirations. After Manchester City’s 2-2 draw at West Ham over the weekend, a Reds victory pulls them within one point with one match to go of the Cityzens. Southampton upset Liverpool at home last year by a 1-0 score — and they limited the Reds to just 1.35 expected goals despite Salah and company being on the pitch. But the Saints have scored only one goal in their last two matches and only four goals in their last six matches. They are not likely to score more than once in this match even against the B-team that Liverpool is sending out.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has seen six of their last seven matches accrue three or less combined goals — and Southampton has seen four of their last five matches generate three combined goals or less. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200161) and Southampton (200162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-04-22 |
Manchester City v. Real Madrid OVER 3 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Manchester City won the first leg of this semifinals showdown with a 4-3 victory at home at Etihad Stadium last Tuesday. Real Madrid hosts this rematch at their Santiago Bernabeu Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City is in potent offensive form with all of their attackers healthy and contributing. The Cityzens come off a 4-0 victory at Leeds United in the English Premier League on Saturday. Man City has scored 16 goals during their current four-game winning streak across all competitions. Manager Pep Guardiola deploys many starting XI lineups that lack a traditional number striker — and they still score plenty of goals with effective midfielders like Kevin DeBruyne, Phil Foden, and Raheem Sterling. But what has helped the Cityzens in this recent surge is the sudden great form of one of the true number nines on the roster in Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian has scored seven goals in his last five starts to offer this side the finisher up top that may be the final piece of the puzzle Guardiola needs to pull off the double of winning a Champions League and the EPL title. Jesus loves playing against Real Madrid — he has three goals with an assist in his three career matches against them. But while the attack is clicking on all cylinders, the Man City defense is not playing at its most optimal level. After Leeds United generated 1.06 expected goals (xG), the Cityzens have allowed four of their last seven opponents to produce at least 1.0 xG — and that does not include the 3-2 loss to Liverpool in the Semifinals of the FA Cup (where expected goals data is not tracked). Guardiola is dealing with an injured backline that is missing John Stones while Kyle Walker and Nathan Are are dealing with knocks. He will have to turn to Oleksandr Zinchenko at right-back who has been a liability on defense in the past. Joao Cancelo returns to the pitch after being suspended for the first match — and while he is a great defender, he also provides the Cityzens a threat in the attack. Real Madrid has won three of their last four matches after a 4-0 victory against Espanyol on Saturday. Los Blancos have scored 13 goals in their last four matches — but they have allowed six goals as well over that span. Manager Carlo Ancelotti is also dealing with injuries on his backline with David Alaba dealing with a knock. He may be available today but he has yet to return to training. The hopes of this Real Madrid side rest on the shoulders of attacker Karim Benzema who is on fire right now. Benzema scored twice in the first leg last week — and he leads all players in the Champions League with 14 goals in the competition. Los Blancos have scored at least one goal in every one of their home matches in the Champions League going back to December of 2018 — and they have to beat the Cityzens by one goal to force extra time to advance to the Semifinals.
FINAL TAKE: The pace was frenetic in the first meeting between these sides last week with Man City generating 3.08 xG and Real Madrid countering with 1.66 xG. Los Blancos have a -4.43 net expected goals differential in their last four matches in the Champions League — but be careful reading too much into that. With elite players like Benzema, Vinicius Junior, and Luka Modric, they have the talent that literally produces the positive outlier results from which expected goals data measuring league-wide averages derive. It’s kinda like expecting the Golden State Warriors to stop overperforming relative to the league (last night being an exception) with their 3-point shooting — the Regression Gods are not coming for the players that set the standard from which other player’s expected regression is measured. Another higher-scoring contest is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (224213) and Real Madrid (224214). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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05-03-22 |
Liverpool -0.5 v. Villarreal |
Top |
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210) in the second leg of the UEFA Champions League Semifinals. THE SITUATION: Liverpool won the first leg between these two teams by a 2-0 score last Wednesday. Villarreal hosts today’s match having to win by at least two goals to force extra time to decide the contest.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are rolling on a five-game winning streak — and they have won 22 of their last 27 matches across all competitions. They come off a 1-0 victory at Newcastle United on Saturday in a match where they limited the Magpies to only 0.16 expected goals. Liverpool’s defense is perhaps playing at its highest level ever under manager Jurgen Klopp. They have now registered four straight clean sheets since beating Man City in the FA Cup Semifinals — and they have conceded a combined 0.86 expected goals allowed (xGA) in those four contests. They absolutely stymied the Yellow Submarines in the first leg last week. Villarreal registered only one shot — and it was not on target — with a mere three touches in the Reds’ penalty area. Liverpool held them to just 0.05 xGA. Villarreal had little success penetrating the midfield line consisting of Thiago and Fabinho — only 13 of their 44 long passes were successful. The Reds, on the other hand, generated 1.75 expected goals (xG) while peppering the Yellow Submarines with 20 shots and 45 touches in their penalty area. Liverpool has been dominant when playing on the road as well. They have not lost on the road in any match since December — and they have won all five of their matches on the road in the Champions League. Villarreal remained flat over the weekend in a 2-1 loss at Alaves in La Liga. They generated only 1.10 xG while conceding 2.35 xGA. Injuries have slowed them down over this recent stretch — but manager Unai Emery does get Gerard Moreno back as an attacker. But the Yellow Submarines’ forward group is still decimated with injuries with their rising star at left-wing Arnaut Danjuma not in the starting XI after not playing over the weekend — and Alberto Moreno and Yeremi Pino are also still on the shelf. Let’s take a grain of salt to the weekend loss to Alaves since Emery rotated players to prepare for this rematch — the priority for this club is the Champions League. But it says something that Villarreal is only in seventh place in La Liga. They beat an overrated Juventus side learning to live life without Ronaldo in the Round of 16 — and then they were fortunate to catch an injured Bayern Munich team in the Quarterfinals. And they either had a lead or were tied with both those clubs going into the second leg which allowed Emery to maintain his low-block defensive stance where they could counter-attack with a healthier forward group. Now, this is Liverpool — one of the top two teams in the world. They will have to play aggressively — and the Reds should punish them in the counterattack. Villarreal is unbeaten in their last 12 matches at home — but they are just fourth at home in points in La Liga. The Yellow Submarines will have to play a style out of their comfort zone against a superior opponent — those are not promising circumstances.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did not win either second leg in the Knockout Stage in this competition — but context is important. The Reds held a 2-0 lead against Inter Milan in the Round of 16 — and when Inter dropped to 10 men after a yellow card, defensive tactics were more than enough to easily survive a 1-0 loss where they advanced with the 2-1 aggregate score. And then Klopp had the luxury of rotating players after winning their first leg with Benfica by a 5-0 score — so the 3-3 result in the second leg continued their overall domination in that match. With a showdown with Man City in the Finals looming, I suspect Klopp will demand a closing effort from his players — and his starting XI is the A-team (save for Jordan Henderson in the midfield who is getting rested). 25* UEFA Champions League Semifinals Match of the Year with the Liverpool (224209) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224210). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-12-22 |
Villarreal v. Bayern Munich -1.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217) in the second leg of their UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals match. THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich won their third match in their last four contests with a 1-0 victory at home against Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday. Villarreal settled with a 1-1 draw against Athletic Bilbao in La Liga on Saturday. Villarreal won the first leg last Wednesday by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Bavarians may have been taking the Yellow Submarine lightly last week — but they were thoroughly outplayed as they lost the expected goals (xG) battle by a 1.61 to 1.23 margin. Frankly, manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is fortunate to only be trailing by one goal. But a two-goal victory tonight is all the Bavarians need to advance to the Semifinals. Injuries have impacted this team. Their star Canadian midfielder, Alphonso Davies, had been out but did get back on the pitch last week. He might have been dealing with fitness issues but he has now played in two matches after coming off the bench on the weekend. Midfielder Leon Goretzka has also been hobbled and came off the bench in the first leg — but he should get the start in this crucial rematch. Bayern Munich got blanked for just the second time in a Champions League since February 2020. But now the Bavarians return home to Allianz Arena where they are generating 3.25 xG in the Champions League this season and where they are posting 2.68 xG in the Bundesliga this year. They have won five of their last six games at home across all competitions. It has also been over three years since Bayern Munich has not scored at least two goals in a Champions League match at home. Villarreal is playing at their best in European competition — yet their form in domestic play has to be a concern. They are just W1-D1-L3 in their last five matches in La Liga while scoring only twice. They are not likely to qualify for European play next year through the Spanish top-flight given their current seventh place in the standings, trailing Real Sociedad by eight points. Their draw with Athletic Bilbao on Saturday was against the eighth-place team in the league, although manager Unai Emery did make 11 lineup changes for that match from the first leg. But while Villarreal is now unbeaten in 11 straight matches at home, they have not been nearly as effective when playing on the road. In domestic play, the Yellow Submarine is W9-D5-L2 at home while averaging a +1.02 net expected goal differential per 90 minutes. But on the road in La Liga, Villarreal is just W3-D5-L7 while averaging just a +0.09 net expected goal differential.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich was flat in their first leg match against RB Salzburg in the Round of 16 in the Champions League where they settled with a 1-1 draw — but they rebounded the next week back at home with a 7-1 thrashing to easily advance to the Quarterfinals. While I do not expect seven more goals tonight, a decisive effort is likely. 25* UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (224218) minus the goal-line versus Villarreal (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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04-05-22 |
Atletico Madrid v. Manchester City UNDER 2.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
107 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Atletico Madrid (224201) and Manchester City (224202) in the first leg of their Quarterfinals match in the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Atletico Madrid enters this match on a six-game winning streak after their 4-1 victory against Alaves in La Liga on Saturday. Manchester City has won two straight matches after their 2-0 win at Burnley in the English Premier League on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Atletico Madrid advanced to the Quarterfinals of this event with a 1-0 victory at Manchester United on March 15th which secured a 2-1 aggregate win against the Red Devils. Los Colchoneros was underperforming on the defensive end of the pitch for much of the season — especially in their domestic Spanish competition — but they have regained the fierce defensive form that is typical for manager Diego Simeone’s teams. Atletico Madrid held Man United to just 1.5 expected goals (xGA) and only two Big Chances (as defined as having a 35% or better chance of scoring) in both matches. During their six-game winning streak across all competitions, the Red and Whites have allowed only three goals. They have given up nine goals in their last five matches against teams playing in this competition (in Champions League or La Line matches), but their xGA is just 5.4 during that span of contests. But the Atletico Madrid attack is not overwhelming — they have generated only 9.5 expected goals (xG) in their eight Champions League matches which is the lowest mark for the remaining eight teams. Man City has allowed only one goal in their last four matches. But they have scored more than two goals in those four contests just once — and they blanked twice. They have just seven goals in their last five matches in the EPL of UEFA Champions League. An injury to Ruben Dias on the backline may have manager Pep Guardiola embracing a more conservative approach since that potentially exposes a weak link for the team. Man City leads the EPL with the fewest goals allowed and the lowest xGA — they are an excellent defensive side.
FINAL TAKE: The 4-4-2 that Simeone deploys is very difficult to break down when Atletico Madrid has their defensive cohesion — as they do now. Furthermore, the elimination of the road-goals tie-breaker in this competition has removed the incentive for the road team to play with more aggression in these first legs. Don’t be surprised if Simeone has his park the proverbial bus with ten men in the back with the hopes of escaping with a 0-0 draw which would bring this competition back to Madrid in very good shape. Even if Man City scores, Los Colchoneros are unlikely to open up since they do not want the match to get out of hand before they host the reverse fixture. And with Dias still out, I expect Guardiola to embrace conservative tactics as well. 10* UEFA Champions League Tuesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between Atletico Madrid (224201) and Manchester City (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-15-22 |
Benfica v. Ajax Amsterdam -1.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253) in the second leg of their Round of 16 UEFA Champions League match. THE SITUATION: Ajax has won three straight matches with their 3-2 victory against Cambuur on Friday. Benfica is unbeaten in their last seven matches with their 1-1 draw at home against Vizela on Saturday. These teams settled for a 2-2 draw in the first leg of the Round of 16 on February 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE AJAX MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: I wrestled between the side play on the Sons of Gods or take the Over — and I concluded that an Ajax 2-0/3-0 victory is more likely this afternoon than a 3-2 Ajax win. Benfica may be without striker Roman Yaremchuk in this match as he is dealing with an illness. Ajax is going to score goals in this contest. They have scored three goals in their last three contests while generating at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each contest. The Sons of Gods are on a seven-match winning streak when playing at home with 31 goals and just two goals conceded (both on Friday — so manager Erik Ten Hag will be looking to shore things up on that end of the pitch). Ajax has scored at least three goals in each of those last seven home contests. This team was just one of three teams in the Group Stage of the Champions League to win all six of their matches. They scored the second-most goals in the Group Stage — and they also generated the second-best expected goals differential to Bayern Munich. In their three home matches in the Group Stage, they won all three contests by more than one goal (to cover a -1.5 goal-line spread). Benfica will surrender their share of goals as they have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches across all competitions. The Eagles are in second place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga which is not considered one of the elite leagues in Europe. And this is a team that can get rolled. In their three matches in the Champions League against Bayern Munich and Ajax, they conceded 10.24 expected goals (xGA). In their road match against Bayern Munich in the Group Stage, they got smashed by a 5-2 score. Benfica has held their last four opponents to 1.15 xGA per 90 minutes — but all four of those sides were on the bottom half of the Primeira Liga table. The Eagles scoring drops off on the road — while they generated 1.43 xG in their four Champions League home matches, that number drops to 1.13 xG per 90 minutes in their three Group Stage matches on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Ajax won the xG battle by a 2.01 to 1.86 mark in the first leg. An own goal by Sebastian Haller gave Benfica life on their home pitch in that match. The Sons of Gods were on target in eight of their 11 shots in that match — their most efficient performance so far in the Champions League this season. Yaremchuck scored Benfica’s only goal — so his absence would hurt. Bayern Munich dominated RB Salzburg last week at home in that second leg after settling for a surprising draw on the road in the first leg — look for a similar game script in this one. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 Match of the Year with the Ajax (224254) minus the goal-line versus Benfica (224253). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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03-10-22 |
Newcastle United v. Southampton -0.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W8-D11-L8) had their three-game snapped in a 4-0 loss at Aston Villa on Saturday. Newcastle (W6-D10-L10) has won two matches in a row after their 2-1 win against Brighton and Hove Albion last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints had been unbeaten in seven straight matches in all competitions — before laying an egg against the Villans — with their only two blemishes being very respectable draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. Manager Ralph Hassenhuttl’s high-press has been effective even against those two sides that are now in the Knockout Stage of the UEFA Champions League. Southampton ranks fourth in the English Premier League in pressure success rate — and this is a vulnerability for the Magpies as they have the third-worst success rate in the league breaking pressure. The Saints play their best at home at St. James Park where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with four straight victories. They thrive against teams in the bottom half of the league at home as well. They have won five of their seven EPL games at home against bottom-half clubs (with two draws) with three straight victories. They have allowed more than 1.0 expected goals (xG) just once in those seven matches — and they have generated at least 1.0 xG in six of those seven matches with the lone exception being in a match where they played with ten men due to a red card. In their last three matches at home against a bottom-half side, they have generated at least 2.2 xG. Newcastle is unbeaten in their last seven matches — but they were fortunate against Brighton as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.89-1.86 xG mark. Frankly, the Magpies have been fortunate to be getting the results they have. In their last six matches which finished with 11 versus 11 players, they have outscored those opponents by 5 goals despite having a net expected goals margin of +2.4. They have scored nine times in those six matches despite generating 7.6 xG. And they have been taking advantage of the lesser teams in the league as six of their last seven opponents have been in 11th place or worse on the EPL table. They have lost six of their 12 league matches on the road where they rank third-to-last in xG. They have generated less than 1.0 xG in seven of their last eight matches that finished at 11-versus-11.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture at Newcastle on August 28th. Southampton dominated the expected goals in that match by a 3.53-1.23 xG margin — and they generated four Big Chances (representing a scoring chance with a 35% or better success rate). Look for the Saints to earn the win on their home pitch. 25* EPL Thursday Afternoon Match of the Month with Southampton (200102) minus the goal-line versus Newcastle United (200101). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-25-22 |
Norwich City v. Southampton -1 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W7-D11-L7) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win against Everton on Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D5-L16) has lost two in a row after their 3-1 loss at Liverpool on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints are playing the best soccer of their season right now as they have reached the top half of the English Premier League table and continue to advance into the deep stages of the FA Cup. Southampton has only lost once in their last 11 matches across all competitions. They recently beat Tottenham and earned impressive draws against Manchester City and Manchester United. The Saints’ attack has averaged 2.18 goals-per-game in their last 11 matches across all competition. Southampton has been effective bottom-feeders as well — they are W4-D2-L0 in their last six matches against teams below them in the EPL table. They have generated 1.67 expected goals-per-game (xG) in those matches — +0.30 xG above their season average — while allowing just 0.67 expected goals per match (xGA). The Saints are also unbeaten in their last nine matches at home at Saint Mary’s Park with nine victories. They are sixth in the league at home in xGA with a mark that is -0.37 xGA below their season average. Norwich City is in last place in the EPL with just 17 points. Since Dean Smith has taken over as manager, the Canaries are last in the league in expected goals scored. They go on the road where they lost eight of their twelve matches — and they are last in the EPL in net expected goals differential. They only average 0.78 xG on the road — so the Saints may register a clean sheet in this match. Norwich City is also winless in their six road matches against teams in the top half of the league. They are allowing nearly 2.6 xGA per match in those contests. The Canaries' last six losses have all been by at least two goals.
FINAL TAKE: Southampton will have revenge on their minds after losing the reverse fixture at Carrow Road which the Canaries won by a 2-1 score. The Saints did win the xG battle by a 1.1-0.5 mark — and they are in much better form now. 25* EPL Friday USA Network Match of the Month with the Southampton Saints (200018) minus the goal-line versus the Norwich City Canaries (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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02-22-22 |
Juventus v. Villarreal |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217) in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League Knockout Stage. THE SITUATION: Villarreal enters this match coming off a 4-1 win at Granada in La Liga action on Saturday. Juventus settled for a 1-1 draw with Turin in Serie A competition on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE VILLARREAL WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Villarreal is in their best form all season entering this match. Since November 30th, the Yellow Submarine are W10-D1-L3 in their last 14 matches with 45 goals and 13 goals conceded. In their last four matches (all in La Liga), they are unbeaten with three victories — scoring nine times and conceding just once. Manager Unai Emery’s style is to craft strong defensive teams that engage in a conservative offensive regimen predicated on the counter-attack. But these Yellow Submarines have thrived in scoring goals as of late. They generated 5.12 expected goals (xG) in their victory over Granada on Saturday which was the highest xG mark for any club playing in one of the top-five European professional leagues this season. They are getting great contributions up top from left wing Arnault Danjuma who scored a hat trick in that victory. Villarreal has arguably been the best team in La Liga since December 1st. They hold the best net expected goal differential of +1.47 (xGD) over that span. The emerging Yellow Submarine attack has been the difference-maker as they have generated 2.52 xG since December 1st which is the top mark in La Liga over that span — far above Real Madrid’s 2.20 xG mark. Villarreal’s defensive identity has remained during this time as they have allowed only eight goals in those last 11 La Liga contests, the fourth-lowest in that span. The Yellow Submarine press has been more effective this season. After ranking eighth and tenth in allowing the fewest successive passes in a row in league play (a measure of defensive pressure), they have catapulted to being second-best in La Liga in that metric. Playing at home at Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal is unbeaten in their last six matches at home with 17 goals scored and just four conceded in those contests. Juventus is unbeaten in their last 12 matches in Serie A but they were shaky in their most recent match against Turin. They managed only 0.82 xG but conceded 0.93 expected goals allowed (xGA) against a side that is just 10th in the Italian top-flight (in a professional league not as strong as La Liga). The Old Lady is ravaged with injuries right now: Federico Cheese, Federico Bernardeschi, and Paulo Dybala are missing from their attack and they are without Giorgio Chellini and Daniele Rugani in their backline. The club did sign Dusan Vlahovic in the January transfer window to shore up the attack — but the 21-year-old’s stats with Fiorentina are propped up by five goals on penalty kicks. He has scored 19 times for Fiorentina and now Juventus this season — but he only has 9.2 non-penalty kick expected goals this year. In their last nine matches in Serie A, the Old Lady has not generated more than 1.5 xG in any of those contests. Their non-penalty kick xG in Serie of 1.17 is just 11th best — and their +0.38 net xGD of +0.38 is far below what Villarreal is generating despite playing in an inferior league to La Liga.
FINAL TAKE: Juventus has a -2.9 net xGD against the top-seven sides in Serie A plus their two Group Stage matches in the Champions League against Chelsea. They got waxed by a 4-0 score at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea in their Group Stage contest — when they were healthier than they are now. Villarreal has tended to fold against elite competition but they have recently registered draws with Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid while beating Real Bettis by a 2-0 score who are in third place in La Liga. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Month with Villarreal (224218) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224217). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-22 |
Real Madrid v. Paris Saint-Germain OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-114 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202) in the first leg of the Round of 16 matches in the UEFA Champions League knockout stage. THE SITUATION: Real Madrid enters this match coming off a 0-0 draw at Villarreal on Saturday in La Liga action. Paris Saint-Germain last played on Friday in a 1-0 victory at home against Rennes in a Ligue 1 domestic match.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Expect the respective offensive attacks to be on display in this heavyweight showdown between European powers who both reached the semifinals of this tournament last year. Star power will be all over the pitch in this match — but this talent has been masking less-than-elite tactics on the defensive side of the pitch. PSG defensive numbers have improved lately — and they have only allowed one goal on with just 1.4 expected goals (xGA) in their last two matches. But those contests were in Ligue 1 play and the quality of competition in the French top flight is not nearly the same as it is in the other top European leagues. Les Parisiens’ defensive numbers in that league are probably overstated. While they have conceded 19 goals in Ligue 1, their xGA rises to a 22.50 mark. The defensive results in the Group Stage of the Champions League are likely more reflective of what to expect from manager Mauricio Pochettino’s side. PSG allowed eight goals in their six Group Stage matches — and their xGA was even worse at a 10.7 clip. They only registered a clean sheet once in those six contests (surprisingly against Man City who did generate 1.90 xG but still somehow got blanked). To make matters worse for Pochettino, he will not have center-back Sergio Ramos to anchor his backline for this match as he remains out with an injury. But PSG will have Neymar available after he was out for an extended period with an injury. I suspect Neymar will come off the bench as a sub given his fitness issues — but Les Parisiens still have their dream-team combination up top of Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappe which will become even more potent when Neymar joins this on the pitch. PSG will score in this match after registering 13 goals in their six Group Stage matches — and they will surrender at least once to Los Blancos. Real Madrid will have their star attacker, Karim Benzema, available for this match to join Vinicius Junior up top. Los Blancos are tops in La Liga in both goals scored and expected goals (xG). This side scored at least two goals in their final four Group Stage matches in the Champions League. The defensive play of Los Blancos under manager Carlo Ancelotti has also been superb — but I am not buying it against elite competition. Real Madrid had a relatively easy group with Inter Milan, Shakhtar Donetsk, and FC Sheriff). And they have been feasting on the lower end of the Spanish top-flight lately. But while Los Blancos have allowed just 20 goals to help them rest in first place in La Liga, they are just sixth in that league with their 25.35 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: These teams are playing higher-scoring matches against top competition. Real Madrid’s 3-2 victory against Barcelona in the Super Cup on January 12th is telling. Los Blancos also scored twice in December in league play against Atletico Madrid to overwhelm their elite defense. PSG followed up their two-goal win against Man City with a 2-1 loss in November in that reverse fixture in the Champions League. And in their two matches in the Champions League against a good but not great RB Leipzig side, they won by a 3-2 score and settled for a 2-2 draw. Expect more fireworks in this one — and these two powers have seen at least three goals scored in the last five meetings between them. 25* UEFA Champions League Round of 16 TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Real Madrid (224201) and Paris Saint-Germain (224202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-05-22 |
Watford v. Burnley UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). THE SITUATION: Watford (W4-D2-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss to Norwich City on January 21st in their last match in the English Premier League and across all competitions. Burnley (W1-D9-L8) comes off a 0-0 draw at Arsenal in their last match on January 23rd.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: After a pair of COVID cancellations delaying this match between two teams fighting off relegation, it looks like this match will finally take place this afternoon while the rest of the EPL takes the weekend off (for FA Cup competition). Watford plays their first match under new manager Roy Hodgson two took over after Claudio Ranieri was fired on January 24th. Ranieri was only the Hornets skipper since early October when Xisco Munoz was sacked after leading the team to promotion from the Champions League. The first order of business for Hodgson will be to shore up a leaky defense that is third to last in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA). Hodgson has a good reputation for installing defensive tactics — he led Crystal Palace to develop into a stingy defensive squad before losing that job last season. He inherits a Hornets side that will be undermanned in their attack today. Ismaila Sara remains unavailable as he continues to compete in the Africa Cup of Nations. Forward Emmanuel Dennis is suspended for this match after he picked up two yellow cards in that match against Norwich City. Sarr and Dennis have scored 18 goals between them — accounting for 78% of the team’s scoring production in the EPL this season. As it is, Watford had only scored five goals in their previous seven matches while getting blanked twice. In their last six matches, they are generating a mere 0.88 expected goals (xG) per match. Burnley is only averaging 0.63 xG per match in their last six games. The Clarets have only scored three goals in their last seven matches with four blanks in that span. Losing Chris Wood who transferred to Newcastle played a role in this scoring slump — but this is not a high-scoring team. The organization did acquire Wout Weghorst in the transfer window from Wolfsburg but the Dutch forward may need some time to get in synch with manager Sean Dyche’s system. While Weghorst had scored at least 16 goals in four straight seasons in the Dutch Eredivisie, he struggled when playing for a second-tier team in the Bundesliga which may not be a good sign for him in the EPL. But Dyche’s side plays quality defense. The Clarets have only allowed eight goals when playing at home at Turf Moor, the fifth-lowest in the EPL, and their xGA at home is third-best in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen six of their 11 matches on the road this season finished Under 2.5 goals. Burnley averages only 2.29 combined goals per match in their seven home matches this season — and six of their last 11 home games have finished Under 2.5 goals. Expect a conservative approach from both teams who would rather register a point than concede three points to their opponent when trying to avoid relegation. 25* English Premier League Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Watford (200001) and Burnley (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-22 |
Aston Villa v. Everton |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 55 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Everton (200066) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200065). THE SITUATION: Everton (W5-D4-L10) lost their third match in the English Premier League in their last four with a 2-1 setback to Norwich City last Saturday. Aston Villa (W7-D2-L11) snapped a three-game losing streak across all competitions last Saturday with a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Everton organization decided enough was enough after the uninspired play from the Toffees from a promoted Canaries side that is currently in the relegation zone. Everton is in 16th place themselves — a far cry from the top half of the table where they expect to be competing for European competition qualification for next season. Manager Rafa Benitez was sacked after the match and replaced by assistant and a previous interim manager for the team in Duncan Ferguson. Benitez was not popular with fans nor the locker room — so I am expecting the new manager bounce for the Toffees this morning. And like a college football team firing their manager in-synch with a good returning class knowing that they are putting their new head coach in a better position to succeed, Benitez’s firing coincides with Everton getting healthy again. The Toffees have been ravaged with injuries but they do now have Dominic Calvert-Lewin back as their striker along with attacking midfielder Richarlison and Yerry Mina to fortify their backline. Calvert-Lewin has started the last two matches after playing only three matches in August before being out with an injury. Richarlison and Mina came on in the 54th minute against Norwich City with the Brazilian midfielder scoring a goal and jumpstarting the Toffees’ attack. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Everton averages 1.43 expected goals (xG) per match when Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison are playing together on the pitch — that mark drops to 0.98 xG when one or both of them are not playing in the last two seasons. The Toffees scored at least two goals in those first three matches in August before the Calvert-Lewin injury. Richarlison has missed seven of the team’s 19 matches this season — a big blow since he is probably the best overall player on the roster. Mina has missed 11 matches this season. When he is on the pitch leading the backline defenders, Everton allows only 1.12 expected goals (xGA) — but they surrender 1.92 xGA when he is not playing this season. The Toffees are a much better team when playing at home at Goodison Park where they have registered four of their five victories this season. Everton has scored at least two goals in six of their nine home matches — and they have just an expected net goal differential of -1.39 despite all the injuries to key players. Aston Villa had been outscored by a 6-2 margin in their three-game losing streak before eking out the surprising draw against a still-struggling Man United side finding their identity under a new caretaker manager. The Villans enjoyed an initial bump under their new manager Steven Gerrard who took over nine matches ago.
|
01-18-22 |
Chelsea v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W12-D7-L3) comes off a 1-0 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W6-D10-L4) settled for a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Chelsea is just W1-D4-L1 in their last six matches after their loss over the weekend that likely ended their chances to win the English Premier League title. They managed only four shots against Man City with only one on target — and they did not register a shot in the entire first half of the match. They generated a mere 0.43 expected goals in the game. The Blues have only scored one goal in their last two matches. They are missing some key pieces in their attack in wings Reece James and Ben Chilwell are out with injuries. Their attack declines when playing on the road — while they average 2.20 expected goals (xG) when playing at home in league play, that drops to 1.64 xG when they are on the road in the EPL this season. But the defensive effort for this Chelsea side under manager Thomas Tuchel. They rank third in the league by holding their opponents to 1.10 expected goals allowed (xGA) — and their xGA on the road is 1.11. Brighton is unbeaten in their last five matches despite getting their goal on Friday from an own-goal from the Eagles. The Seagulls are an outstanding defensive team under manager Graham Potter. They rank fourth in the EPL by allowing only 1.19 expected goals (xGA). They are also second in the league in the fewest Big Chances (representing an expected goal rate of 35%) and fifth in fewest shots allowed. When playing at home, Brighton holds their opponents to 1.09 xGA. But the Seagulls have not scored more than one goal in six of their last seven games at home at Amex Stadium. These two teams just played on December 29th which resulted in a 1-1 draw. Chelsea managed only 0.92 xG in that match despite averaging 3.17 xG in their previous five matches at home. Brighton countered with only 1.05 xG in that contest. In the reverse fixture between these clubs last season, the result was a scoreless draw.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has seen two or fewer combined goals in four of their last six matches across all competitions. Brighton has seen two or fewer combined goals in nine of their last eleven matches across all competitions. 25* EPL Tuesday USA Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Chelsea (200997) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200998). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-28-21 |
Liverpool v. Leicester OVER 3.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-110 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W12-D5-L1) last played an English Premier League match on December 16th when they settled for a 2-2 draw at Tottenham. Leicester City (W6-D4-L7) last played on an EPL match on Sunday when they lost at Manchester City by a 6-3 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams just played on Wednesday in the Caribou Cup with the Liverpool B-team pulling out a 4-3 victory in a shootout. The Reds had their last EPL match with Leeds United postponed because of COVID. The Liverpool defense has been leaky as of late after giving up 2.87 expected goals to the HotSpurs nine days ago. The Reds have allowed six goals in their last three matches. They do get back holding midfielder Fabinho and defenseman Virgil Van Dijk for this match — but they are coming off the COVID list so they may not be back to full fitness just yet even if they had only “mild” symptoms. But the Liverpool attack has been clicking after scoring eight goals in their last three matches. They have generated at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in each of the EPL contests since November 17th against West Ham. They are tied with Man City with 50 goals for the most goals in the league (with a match in hand) — and they generate 2.4 xG when playing on the road. Leicester City has scored 12 goals in their last four matches in all competitions. Their problem is on the other side of the pitch where they have allowed 14 goals in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have conceded 12 goals in their last four contests. The Foxes have conceded 33 goals in EPL play — the fourth-most in the league. Their 1.69 expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL is fifth to the bottom. Leicester City has also conceded the third most Big Chances (with a goal expectancy of 35% or higher). When playing at home, the Foxes are generating 1.51 xG with 11 goals in their last three matches.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City has seen at least four combined goals scored in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has seen at last four combined goals in eight of their last 11 contests. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200141) and Leicester City (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-21 |
Brentford v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). THE SITUATION: Brentford (W5-D5-L6) comes off a 2-1 win against Watford in their most recent match in the English Premier League on December 10th. Brighton and Hove Albion (W4-D8-L4) last played on December 15th when they lost 1-0 at home to Wolverhampton.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Brentford was blanked in their most recent match in the Caribou Cup on Wednesday in a 2-0 loss to Chelsea. The Bees are limited in their attack — they are 15th in the EPL in shot attempts per 90 minutes. When playing on the road, Brentford has only 8.6 expected goals (xG) in their eight matches so far in the EPL this season. But Brentford does play well on defense. They rank sixth in the league in non-penalty kick expected goals allowed (xGA). They have conceded the sixth-fewest shots per 90 minutes. On the road, the Bees improve to four best in xGA. Brighton struggles to score goals — they have only scored three times in their last six matches while getting blanked three times. They have not scored more than once in those six matches — and they will be without one of their best offensive playmakers in Yves Bissouma who is out with an injury. The Seagulls average only 1.0 non-penalty kick xG per match — and they rank 15th in Big Chances created (with a 35% or higher expected success rate). Playing at home at the American Express Community Stadium, Brighton has scored only two times in their last five matches with three blanks. But the Seagulls are tough on defense — they are fifth in the EPL by conceding only 17 goals this season while also ranking fifth best in xGA. They have allowed the third-fewest Big Chances.
FINAL TAKE: Brighton consistently grinds out low-scoring matches under manage Graham Potter. They have played six straight matches where no more than two combined goals were scored. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Brentford (200113) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-02-21 |
Brentford +1 v. Tottenham Hotspur |
|
0-2 |
Loss |
-135 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Brentford (200113) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200114). Brentford (W4-D4-L5) enter this match coming off a 1-0 victory against Everton in their most recent match in the English Premier League on Saturday. Tottenham (W6-D1-L5) last played in the EPL on November 21st in a 2-1 victory against Leeds United. Their league match with Burnley on Saturday was postponed because of snow.
REASONS TO TAKE BRENTFORD PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Tottenham is a -1 goal-line favorite due to bettors expecting the Antonio Conte bounce for this team. The Spurs are W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since Conte took over — but two of those matches were in the second-tier Europa League. Even more troubling, Tottenham was upset in their last match in a 2-1 setback on the road at Mura on November 25th in the Europa League. Granted, that Spurs starting XI consisted of backups — but it is a significant concern when considering the roster may not match the tactics Conte wants to deploy. Said Conte after that match: “After three weeks I am starting to understand the situation. It is not simple. At this moment the level at Tottenham is not so high. I must be honest and tell you that after three-and-a-half weeks, I am starting to understand the situation. I can tell you that the situation is not simple. It is not simple because in this moment for sure the level of Tottenham is not so high. There is an important gap to the top teams in England. Of this we must not be scared. I am here to work, here to improve the situation.I know that in this moment we need to have patience, time and I am here because I know there are problems to solve. After three-and-a-half weeks, I am happy to stay here but at the same time I must be honest and tell you we need to work a lot to improve the quality of the (current) squad. We are Tottenham and Tottenham in this moment, there is an important gap. If someone thinks that a new coach arrives and Conte won in the past and then I am a magician. But the only magic I can do is to work. To bring work and work to improve, to bring my methods, my ideas of football. But we have to understand that we need time.” Yikes — especially for a Spurs side that is 17th in the league in expected goals, 20th in shots per match, and 14th in Big Chances created. Harry Kane has only scored one goal for the team this season — the veteran has appeared gassed after his commitment to the English National Team’s run to the Euro 2020 Finals last summer. The Spurs are not at full strength either with defenseman Cristian Romero still out. Brentford is one of the most underrated teams in the league. They rank fifth in the EPL in expected goal differential. The Bees may only have four points in their last six league contests — but they have won the expected goals (xG) battle in three of those matches and they have just a -0.2 net expected goal differential in those matches. Brentford is just one of six EPL sides that rank in the top ten in both expected goals and expected goals allowed. Manager Thomas Frank’s team is also seventh in the EPL with nine points accrued on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Brentford’s defensive tactics keeps them competitive in their matches. They have only lost by more than one goal once in their last 40 straight matches across all competitions — and they have lost by more than one goal just once in their last 19 matches on the road in all competitions. Tottenham has not defeated an opponent by more than one goal in ten straight matches. Conte emphasizes defensive tactics — if the Spurs do win this match, it is highly unlikely that it will be by more than one goal. 20* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Brentford (200113) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200114). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-23-21 |
Juventus v. Chelsea -0.75 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281) in Group H play of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W3-D0-L1) has won eight of their last nine matches across all competitions with their 3-0 win at Leicester City in the English Premier League on Saturday. Juventus (W4-D0-L0) has won three matches in a row across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Lazio in Serie A play on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues hot streak started after losing to Juventus in the reverse fixture in the Champions League on September 29th — more on that match in the Final Take. The reigning European Champions have since found the defensive core that helped them claim the Champions League title. And despite injuries at forward to Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner, manager Thomas Tuchel has his XI generating offense from their wings. Chelsea has produced a clean sheet in six of their last seven matches in the EPL and UCL. They have outscored their last seven opponents in the EPL and UCL by a whopping 19 to 1 margin — and they have scored multiple goals in four of their last six matches in the EPL and UCL. The Blues are dominating the EPL competition in first place with 30 goals and just four goals conceded. They have a +12.94 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the EPL that is the top professional league in Europe. Serie A is a top-five European professional league — but they are not as strong as the EPL. Juventus only has a +6.59 non-penalty kick expected goals differential in the Italian top-flight where they are in sixth place. The team misses Cristiano Ronaldo who led their offensive attack last season before being signed by Manchester United this year. But the identity of Juventus is usually their defensive play — and after leading Serie in expected goals allowed (xGA) last season, they have dropped to third in that metric this year. Furthermore, three starters — Paulo Dybala, Giorgio Chiellini, and Federico Bernardeschi — are questionable to play in this match.
FINAL TAKE: Juventus has won all four of their UCL matches and just needs a draw to clinch their advancement to the Knockout Stage. Chelsea will want the victory to draw even with the Old Lady in Group H — and taking first place gives them a better draw in the Round of 16 so this is an important match. Despite losing 1-0 to Juventus in September, the Blues dominated the match. They controlled possession for 72% of the match; they out-touched them by a 422 to 77 margin in the final third of the pitch; they completed 723 passes to just 236 passes; they had 17 entries into the box to just 5 conceded. Look for Chelsea to avenge that loss with a decisive victory. 25* UEFA Champions League Group H Match of the Month with Chelsea (224282) minus the goal-line versus Juventus (224281). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-07-21 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Everton |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
5 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Tottenham (200149) with the goal-line versus Everton (200150). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W5-D0-L5) looks to rebound in the English Premier League after a 3-0 loss to Manchester United last Saturday. Everton (W4-D2-L4) has lost three in a row after a 2-1 loss to Wolverhampton on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM WITH THE GOAL-LINE: This is half an “In Antonio Conte We Trust” — but the manager has earned this level of respect when taking over clubs. The Hotspurs sacked Nuno Espirito Santo last week after he failed to achieve results with this squad. I like Nuno — but perhaps his style is not a good fit with the blue bloods on the Hotspur squad. Dealing with egos has not been a problem with Conte who has had an immediate impact on his new teams in the past. He won the EPL title in his first season with Chelsea winning 30 of 38 matches. He then took over Juventus an improved team from 7th place to winning the Scudetto Serie A title. The Conte impact is instantaneous. In his first 10 matches with Chelsea, the team went W7-D1-L2 with four clean sheets. They scored 16 goals and allowed nine. In his first ten matches with Juventus, he went W5-D5-L0 with four clean sheets. They scored 16 goals and allowed seven. In his first ten matches with Inter Milan in his last stint, they went W8-D1-L1 with four clean sheets. They scored 21 goals and allowed 10 goals. This remains a talented Hotspurs squad that reached the UEFA Champions League Finals only two years ago. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min still lead a talented side that seems uninspired under Nuno. The Spurs' first match under Conte resulted in a 3-2 win against Vitesse in the Europa League on Thursday. They should play better in this match. Everton has lost three in a row with injuries mounting to expose a roster lacking in depth. The Toffees have lost the expected goals battle in four straight English Premier League matches. They remain with striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin and midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure.
FINAL TAKE: Everton has lacked a home pitch advantage with their 9 points derived from a W3-D0-L2 record betrayed by an expected points mark of 7.63. Tottenham has the talent edge — and I expect a Conte bounce. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Tottenham (200149) with the goal-line versus Everton (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-06-21 |
Manchester City v. Manchester United OVER 2.75 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-118 |
8 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the game between Manchester City (200125) and Manchester United (200126). THE SITUATION: Man City (W6-D2-L2) looks to rebound in the English Premier League after suffering a 2-0 loss at home to Crystal Palace last Saturday. Man United (W5-D2-L3) looks to build off their 3-0 victory at Tottenham in their most recent EPL match last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City was blanked for just the second time in their ten EPL matches this season. The Citizens are third in the league with 20 goals — and their expected goals mark of 22.12 is the second-highest in the EPL. They are averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game in the English top flight. They had scored 13 combined goals in their previous four matches in the EPL and UEFA Champions League before failing to score last week against Crystal Palace. Aymeric LaPorte’s red card at the 45+2 mark of the first half did not help their cause as it left them playing catching with just ten players for the rest of the match. The Man City attack rebounded on Wednesday in the Champions League with their 4-1 win at home against Club Brugge. The Citizens generated 4.26 expected goals in the victory. Generating scoring chances has not been a problem for manager Pep Guardiola’s team. The play of the defense, however, has been off this campaign. Man City has allowed at least one goal in four straight matches in the EPL and Champions League — and they have just one clean sheet in their last seven matches in the EPL and Champions League (excluding lesser-tiered contests) this season. Not having LaPorte on the backline with him suspended handicaps their defense even more. Man United rallied around embattled manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer in their shutout victory against the Spurs last week — but Tottenham generated 1.38 expected goals (xG) in the loss. The Red Devils have scored at least two goals in four of their last five matches. They come off a 2-2 draw at Atalanta on Tuesday in the Champions League. But it is the play of the defense that has Solskjaer on the hot seat. Man United is 11th in the EPL by allowing 15 goals this season — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 16.31 is 14th in the league. The Red Devils have only one clean sheet in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have conceded at least 1.21 xGA in nine straight matches. Furthermore, they have allowed multiple goals in four of their last five matches in all competitions.
FINAL TAKE: Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw have been out of form all season with speculation being that they are tired after playing critical roles in England’s run to the finals in the Euro 2020 this summer. Man United acquired Raphael Varane to solid their defense before the season started but the former Real Madrid center back is out with an injury leaving the Red Devils backline even more vulnerable. Both teams should score in this one with at least two goals necessary for a potential victory. 25* English Premier League NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the game between Manchester City (200125) and Manchester United (200126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
11-03-21 |
Ajax Amsterdam v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 16 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Ajax (224249) with the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224250) in Group C of the UEFA Champions League. Ajax (W3-D0-L0) leads Group C with a perfect 3-0 record after their 4-0 victory at home in Amsterdam against Borussia Dortmund in the reverse fixture on October 19th. Borussia Dortmund (W2-D0-L1) is in second place in Group C with the top two teams advancing to the Knockout Stage.
REASONS TO TAKE AJAX WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund will have revenge on their mind after getting embarrassed two weeks ago — but they are ravaged with injuries. The Blue and Yellows are dependent on their superstar Erling Haaland but he has missed the last three matches with a thigh injury. Haaland averages 1.36 expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes this season — there may not be another team in the Champions League this season who is more dependent on one player. His substitute at striker, Donyell Malen, averages only 0.25 expected goals plus expected assists per 90 minutes. But Borussia Dortmund will be out another three players and four more players are in doubt to play this match. The Blue and Yellows have won three straight matches since the Haaland injury — but the competition has been soft. Two of the victories were against FC Cologne (on Saturday) and Arminia who are in 11th and 19th place in the Bundesliga — and their third win was against a lower-tiered domestic team in German Cup action. Ajax will not be looking past this team after enduring a disappointing 0-0 draw at Heracles on Saturday. The Sons of Gods have still won four of their last five matches with four clean sheets over that span. Ajax is a possession-dominant machine under manager Erik ten Hag. They have won eight of their first eleven matches in the Eredivisie top-flight league in the Netherlands. But this side is not just a domestic league giant. The Soccer Power Index at FiveThirtyEight ranks them 5th in the world. They have scored 11 goals in the Champions League which is just behind Bayern Munich. They lead all Champions League sides with 8.8 expected goals — and they lead all teams in this competition in expected goals differential. They are fourth in shots per 90 minutes and are tied for the lead in the competition in overall average shot quality. They crushed Sporting Lisbon by a 5-1 score on the road in Champions League earlier this season — a side that Borussia Dortmund won by just a 1-0 score with a healthy Haaland on the pitch. Sporting Lisbon is good — they won the Portugal Premier League last year that included a quality Porto side that reached the Quarterfinals of the Champions League.
FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund has scored 27 goals in the Bundesliga — but their expected goals drop to 21.13. That is the impact of the technical prowess of Haaland. He accounted for four of the Blue and Yellows ten shots in the first meeting between these teams last month. 25* UEFA Champions League Group C Match of the Month with Ajax (224249) with the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (224250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-24-21 |
Liverpool v. Manchester United OVER 3 |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Manchester United (200078). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D3-L0) remained unbeaten in the English Premier League with their 5-0 win at Watford last Saturday. Manchester United (W4-D2-L2) is winless in their last three EPL matches after a 4-2 loss at Leicester City on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: I thought I was endorsing Liverpool in this match before my final deep dive. The Reds’ offense is clicking on all cylinders. Roberto Firmino is back in form after registering a hat trick against Watford last week. But it is Mo Salah who is the straw that stirs the drink. Salah may be the best striker in the world — and he may very well be in the form of his life right now having scored in nine straight matches across all competitions. He recorded a brace on Tuesday in Liverpool’s 3-2 win on the road against defensive juggernaut Atletico Madrid in the UEFA Champions League. In the EPL, the Reds lead the league in expected goals (xG), Big Chances (35%+ expected success rate), shot attempts, and shots in the box. And on the road, Liverpool has scored at least three goals in nine straight matches across all competitions including seven straight in the EPL. But I decided that the Over is the better play because the Reds’ defense is not quite in top form. After being ravaged with injuries on their backline last season, manager Jurgen Klopp has a healthy roster once again. But Liverpool has only registered one clean sheet in their last five matches. The cohesion is not quite the same in back as it was with the same group in their EPL championship run two seasons ago. They allowed Atletico Madrid — not an offensive juggernaut — to register 1.94 xG midweek. Manchester United can score goals. They have scored five goals in their last two matches after their 3-2 come-from-behind win against Atalanta in the Champions League on Wednesday. With Cristiano Ronaldo back in the fold with his old club, the Red Devils have an abundance of riches of scoring options as he complements what was already a potent group led by Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, and Marcus Greenwood. But the defense for this team has been shaky all season. Man United’s expected goals allowed (xGA) mark is the worst of the top-eight teams in the league. They have allowed their last six opponents to register at least 1.21 xG across all competitions — and their last two opponents have scored six goals. While the teams spend bundles of money on high-priced forwards like Ronaldo, they still lack quality defensive midfielders that they need to make deep runs at an EPL or European Championship.
FINAL TAKE: Man United struggles against defensive-minded counter-attacking sides. They are at their best when they can play the cagey, counter-attack approach as they will in this one. Another reason why I was reticent to take Liverpool in this match. The Reds have scored at least nine goals in nine straight matches — and they have scored 30 goals in their last eight EPL matches. This should be a wild one. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Manchester United (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-13-21 |
Costa Rica v. United States UNDER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Costa Rica (225305) and the United States Men’s National Team (225306). THE SITUATION: Costa Rica enters this match after defeating El Salvador by a 2-1 score in their World Cup Qualifying match in the CONCACAF Octagonal round on Monday. The USMNT looks to rebound from their upset loss against Panama on Sunday in their World Cup qualifying match. This game will be played at Lower.com Field in Columbus, Ohio.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The US was listless in their effort on Sunday — a disturbing trend under manager Gregg Berhalter. They failed to generate even one shot on goal against the Canal Men. Berhalter did make seven changes from the starting XI that beat Jamaica by a 2-0 score in their last qualifying match. This is considered a golden generation for this American team that has yet to accomplish much outside this continent. European stars Christian Pulisic and Giovanni Reyna are dealing with injuries — and they will not play tonight. But the shape and identity of this team under Berhalter remains a work-in-progress. The pressure is firmly on this team now — they are tied for second with Panama in the table without having played Mexico and Costa Rica who are the two most established powers in CONCACAF. Failing to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar next year would be a disaster — I expect this team to be tight. They have the edge of this being played on home soil — but they have only scored more than one goal once in their last six matches when playing in the US. But the one thing that has been consistent for this squad under Berhalter has been the play of the defense. The Stars and Stripes have five clean sheets in their last six matches at home. Manchester City backup goaltender Zack Steffan gets the start tonight against a Costa Rica team that does not score many goals. In their last eight matches, they have not scored more than one goal — and they have been blanked five times. Their victory against El Salvador earlier this week was the first time in their last seven matches that Los Ticos played a match where three or more goals were scored. Costa Rica is a veteran side that focuses on defensive stability — and they rely on scoring goals from the counterattack. If the US takes a lead, don’t expect them to stay aggressive against these dangerous Costa Rican tactics. Berhalter would love to survive with a 1-0 victory.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have combined to see eight of their ten matches playing the World Cup qualifier octagonal stage have two combined goals or less scored. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have finished Under 2.5 goals — with the exception being a meaningless friendly match in June which the US won by a 4-0 score (with Pulisic and company playing). 20* World Cup Qualifiers Costa Rica-USMNT ESPN2 Special with Under the Total in the match between Costa Rica (225305) and the United States Men’s National Team (225306). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-18-21 |
Brentford v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Brentford (200193). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W1-D0-L3) earned their first points of the season with a 2-0 win at Watford last Saturday. Brentford (W1-D2-L1) suffered their first loss of the season in a 1-0 loss to Brighton and Hove Albion last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Disregard the early season record for the Wolves — this team has been impressive under first-year manager Bruno Lage. The Wanderers endured one of the most difficult opening three matches of the new season with contests against three teams that finished in the top-seven of the table last year in Manchester United, Tottenham, and Leicester City. Wolverhampton lost all three matches by a 1-0 score. The underlying metrics looked very good for this team going into last week where they finally scored their first goal of the 2021-22 campaign. The Wolves have only two goals in their four matches — but they registered 7.19 expected goals given their activity and locations of shots is sixth-best in the league. Striker Raul Jimenez has not been accurate with his leg — but he has been very active in creating scoring chances in his return to the pitch after suffering that scary head injury last November. Jimenez is a quality scorer who should find his finishing groove sooner rather than later. Attacking midfielder Adama Traore has thrived in the Lage’s system. The Wolves have remained strong on defense despite the departure of their previous manager Nuno Espirito Santo who took the higher-paying Tottenham skipper job. Wolverhampton has allowed only three goals — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 3.52 is the fifth-best mark in the league. Furthermore, the Wolves lead the EPL with the lowest xGA in open play (not set pieces). Lage has this group playing even better defense despite the tough opening schedule. Last season, the Wanderers had an xGA of 1.4 while allowing 1.9 Big Changes (35% or higher chance of scoring) per 90 minutes and 7.8 shots in the box per 90 minutes. This season, the Wolves have a 1.0 xGA with only 0.75 Big Chances allowed per 90 minutes and 5.5 shots allowed in the box per 90 minutes. Brentford has been an early surprise going unbeaten in their first three matches before allowing a late goal in stoppage time to then lose to the Seagulls last week. But Manager Thomas Frank’s team benefited from an easier schedule to start the season. Their opening 2-0 win against Arsenal was against a team that is simply a mess right now. Their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace and 1-1 draw to Aston Villa (sans Jack Grealish) were against two opponents that appear destined to be at the bottom half of the table. Brentford is a defensive club that has scored only three times this season — and their xG is just 4.46. They are at risk of getting blanked on the road against the best defensive team they have to play this season.
FINAL TAKE: It is dangerous to be dismissive of the promoted teams — but the Bees are facing a team with a similar profile on the road that has a more talented roster. These two teams last met on January 2nd in 2018 when both were in the second-tier Championship League. The Wolves dominated that match by a 3-0 score in their campaign that earned them the promotion to the English Premier League. They should earn a win at home at Molineaux Stadium. 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with the Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Brentford (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-17-21 |
Leeds United v. Newcastle United OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200173) and Newcastle United (200174). THE SITUATION: Leeds United (W0-D2-L2) comes off a 3-0 loss to Liverpool last Sunday. Newcastle United (W0-D1-L3) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss at Manchester United.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leeds was blanked against Liverpool — one of the best teams in the world — but Pascal Struijk getting a red card in the 60th minute leaving the Peacocks playing with just ten men for 30 minutes in that match did not help their cause. Leeds has still scored at least two goals in six of their last eight matches in the English Premier League going back to last season. The Peacocks play an aggressive all-out attack under manager Marco Bielsa. But these tactics do leave them vulnerable on defense. Leeds has allowed 11 goals in their four matches which is tied for the second-most in the EPL. Bielsa is not going to park the bus — it will be go-go-go against the Magpies. They allowed the Reds to generate 4.57 expected goals (xG) on Sunday. Leeds improved with their play on defense when playing at home in the second half of the season — but they consistently struggled to stop opposing attacks when playing on the road. The Peacocks were last in the EPL in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing on the road last season. They ranked a respectable eighth in the league in xG when playing on the road. Leeds has not been as explosive this season in their attack but they did score in both their road matches. The underlying metrics for Patrick Bamford and Raphinha remain good -- the best two attacking players in the starting XI. Newcastle has scored in seven of their last eight EPL matches going back to last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive style with his team playing on their front foot. In their two matches at home this season, the Magpies have scored at least two goals in both contests — and both those home matches saw four and six combined goals scored. Newcastle may have the worst defense in the league — the 12 goals they have allowed are the most in the EPL. Bruce will not have the services of Callum Wilson at forward for this match as he deals with a thigh injury — but Wilson was slowed by an injury last spring as well but that did not slow down the reinvigorated Magpies attack.
FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights (and soccer matches) — and both these teams will be looking to attack. In the last six meetings between these two teams, at least three combined goals have been scored four times. In their two EPL matches last year, ten combined goals were scored with both matches seeing at least three combined goals. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Leeds United (200173) and Newcastle United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-15-21 |
Real Madrid +0.25 v. Inter Milan |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (224253) with the goal-line versus Inter Milan (224254). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (0-0-0) begins their Champions League campaign coming off a semifinals loss to Chelsea in this European competition last season. Inter Milan (0-0-0) failed to advance out of the Group Stage in last year’s Champions League in a group that included these Los Blancos.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos are a pick ‘em or a +0.25 goal-line underdog in this match because of injuries. Left-back Ferland Mendy and midfielder Dani Ceballos have yet to take the pitch for them this season. Real Madrid was also missing Gareth Bale, David Alaba, Toni Kroos, and Luka Jovic from their 5-2 victory at home against Celta Vigo in La Liga action on Sunday. To compound matters, veteran left tackle Marcelo suffered a thigh injury in Monday’s training session. New manager Carlo Ancelotti will likely be without seven starters for this match. But this is still Real Madrid — they are one of the few clubs in the world where their B-team backups would be serious threats to reach the Knockout Stage of this competition. And they still have regular starters Karim Benzema, Eden Hazard, and Vinicius Jr. as a scoring threat, the sublime Luka Modric patrolling the midfield along with new signee Eduardo Camavinga. Los Blancos have an embarrassment of riches of talent up and down their roster — and the bench players salivate at the opportunity to prove themselves in moments like this. Real Madrid’s form has been quite good despite the injuries. They are in first place in La Liga with three wins and a draw in their first four matches. Los Blancos dealt with a bevy of injuries last season so the roster is experienced. The club did move on from legendary manager Zinedine Zidane but they replaced him with another legend in Carlo Ancelotti who led this franchise to the Champions League title in 2013-14. Ancelotti proved his managing chops are still sharp with Everton in the English Premier League last season. Inter Milan comes off winning their first Serie A campaign in over a decade last season. But this team lost their best player, Romelu Lukaku, who signed a big contract to return to Chelsea in the offseason. Lukaku was Nerazzuri’s offense last season — the forward scored 30 goals in Serie A. Yet Inter Milan was just third in Serie A in expected goals and fifth in Shot Creating Actions — not great numbers in the less competitive Italian top flight. They have a new manager as well in Simone Inzaghi who replaced a former EPL champion manager in Antonio Conte. Inter Milan won the Champions League in 2009-10 — but this franchise has not been at the same level ever since. They have only qualified for this event five times — and they have reached the Knockout Stage just twice since 2010. Nerazzurri had won their first two Serie A matches before settling for a 2-2 draw at Sampdoria on Sunday. Inter Milan is just fifth in the league in expected points — and they are just seventh in expected goals which fuel my concern that their offensive attack takes a big step back without Lukaku. Inzaghi is without starting defender Alessandro Bastoni with a thigh injury. Perhaps the market is influenced by Inter Milan defeating Real Madrid in four of their last six opportunities to host them. But Los Blancos have won four of their last five meetings with Nerazzuri in European competitions. Real Madrid was good on the road last year in La Liga with a W12-D1-L6 record and the best-expected goal differential in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid won both matches against what seems like a better Inter Milan side in the Group Stage last season — and they controlled the expected goals by a 3.30-0.94 mark. La Liga is the second-best professional league in the world while Serie A is probably fourth. The worst-case scenario for Los Blancos is likely a draw. Let’s take our chances. 25* UEFA Champions League Group D Match of the Month with the Real Madrid (224253) with the goal-line versus the Inter Milan (224254). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-21-21 |
Newcastle United v. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
0 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle United (W0-D0-L1) opened the 2021-22 English Premier League season with a 4-2 loss to West Ham United last Sunday. Aston Villa (W0-D0-L1) lost at Watford by a 3-2 score last Saturday in their opening EPL match of the season.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Newcastle struggled with their defensive play against the Hammers last week — they allowed double the number of Big Chances in that match than the EPL club that allowed the second-most Big Chances in Week One. The Magpies blew 1-0 and 2-1 leads in the contest. Newcastle continued the more aggressive style of play that manager Steve Bruce embraced at the end of last season. The Magpies scored 12 goals in their last five EPL matches — and they scored nine goals in their last four EPL matches on the road. With the signing of Joe Willock from Arsenal to join Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, Newcastle has some exciting attacking talent — and Willock is in the starting XI today. Aston Villa struggled to generate scoring chances last week before newcomer Danny Ings drew a penalty that led to his goal from the line in the seventh minute of extra time after the 90th minute. The Villans are replacing midfielder Jack Grealish who signed with Manchester City — and forward Ollie Watkins is out with an injury. Yet Aston Villa still has attacking talent. Ings is one of the best finishers in the EPL after serving as the Southampton talisman the last few seasons. The Villans signed Emi Buendia from Norwich City to replace Grealish’s place on the pitch. He averaged 0.34 expected goals plus assists per 90 minutes in the Championship League last year. They also signed Leon Bailey who will get the start after he came off the bench last week. Their attack should improve after a week of training with their new players. Defense is the bigger concern for Villa. They have allowed at least 1.0 expected goals in 12 straight EPL matches — and they conceded at least 2.0 expected goals in three of those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Aston Villa has seen at least three combined goals in four straight EPL matches — and they have seen at least three combined goals in ten of their last eleven EPL contests. Newcastle has seen at least three combined goals in seven of their last eleven EPL matches. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Aston Villa (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-15-21 |
West Ham United v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W0-D0-L0) looks to build on their sixth-place finish last season in the English Premier League. Newcastle (W0-D0-L0) finished last year in 12th place in the EPL, 17 points clear of relegation.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham concluded their EPL campaign last year by going unbeaten in four of their last five games. They scored six goals in their final two matches. The Hammers are much better when their striker Michail Antonio is healthy and leading their attack as he was at the end of last season. West Ham was sixth in the EPL last year with 37.2 expected goals (xG). The attack led by Antonio has been in good form in the preseason — they defeated a talented Atalanta side from Series A by a 2-0 score before blowing out Celtic from La Liga by a 6-2 margin. But the Hammers defense remains an issue under manager David Moyes. They have not had a clean sheet in their last seven road matches in league play — and they surrender eight goals in their last five EPL road contests. Newcastle won three of their last four games to safely avoid relegation last season with manager Steve Bruce embracing a more aggressive attack. Having a healthy Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin up top offers this team finishing talent. The Magpies scored ten goals in their final four league games. In their final 11 matches in the EPL, Newcastle was third in generating Big Scoring Chances (with a 35% or better chance of success) and fourth in expected goals. But defense is also an issue for this team. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) of 37.2 in the second half of the season was the fifth most. They also only had two clean sheets at home. That is not a good sign for a team that will have to use their third-string keeper in Freddie Woodman given injuries to their top-two keepers.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams last played on April 17th when Newcastle won by a 3-2 score. Expect another higher-scoring contest between these two teams. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200033) and Newcastle United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-14-21 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. Norwich City |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) returns to the pitch after finishing in third place in the English Premier League last season. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) was promoted back to the English top-flight after winning the Championship League last season.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City was last in the EPL two years ago when they finished in last place with a mere 21 points in 38 matches. There was a clear talent disparity between the Canaries and even mid-table teams. Norwich City responded by winning the Championship League — but they were fortunate. While they allowed only 36 goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) rose to a 52.5 mark which was ninth-worst in the league. That team also had the services of Emi Buendia who scored 15 goals and added 17 assists. The midfielder transferred to Aston Villa last week as that team made moves to compensate for the loss of Jack Grealish who signed a big contract with Manchester City. The Canaries will miss the 3.1 chances per game that Buendia provided — he was involved in 43% of the goals they scored last season. To compound matters, manager Daniel Farke is dealing with a COVID outbreak in the locker room leaving the team undermanned for their return to the EPL. Liverpool is rested for this match with star players like Mo Salah and Sadio Mane not involved with summer competition with their national teams. Injuries on their backline held the Reds back last season. And don’t underestimate the impact the compacted schedule due to COVID had on this team after a two-year run of winning the English Premier League title and competing deep into two Champions League campaigns. Manager Jurgen Klopp’s side ended strong by going unbeaten in their last ten matches — and they won their last five contests. Liverpool also grabbed 19 of the possible 21 points in their final seven road contests.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six trips to Carrow Road to play Norwich City. While I don’t usually like taking heavy road favorites in the EPL, the Reds enter this season with a chip on their shoulder. Rested and ready — with more talent and in better health — the Reds should roll. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Month with Liverpool (200029) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-01-21 |
Mexico v. United States UNDER 2.5 |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234201) and the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — but much of the best offensive players from that match will not be on the pitch tonight. The top ten players from the American roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been very good with their defense in this competition. They have only conceded one goal in the second half in a blowout against Martinique. But six of their ten goals scored in this competition were against that Martinique side who were one of the minnows in this tournament. It is tough to score on the Americans when they are playing on home soil. In their last 14 matches in the United States, they have conceded only five goals with ten clean sheets. Since the loss to the Americans in June, Mexico has not conceded a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.
FINAL TAKE: The four combined goals in regulation in the CONCACAF Nations League Finals was an aberration. When these two teams played in the Finals of the 2019 Gold Cup, Mexico won by a 1-0 score. Expect another lower-scoring match. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Sunday Late Show O/U Bailout with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234201) and the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
08-01-21 |
Mexico v. United States |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 8:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Mexico (234201) minus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202) in the Finals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W4-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Gold Cup with a 2-1 win against Canada on Thursday. The USMNT (W5-D0-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 1-0 victory against Canada in the Semifinals on Thursday. This match will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: El Tri will have revenge on their minds after losing to the United States in the CONCACAF Nations League by a 3-2 score on June 6th. The respective rosters of both teams were the proverbial A-teams — so that was a big triumph for the United States. The top-ten players from that roster are now gone and training with their European professional teams. Manager Gregg Berhalter is using this tournament to build depth. Only Kellyn Acosta who started in the match with Mexico in June may be in the starting XI tonight. The Stars and Stripes have been pretty good in this tournament — with the benefit of playing on home soil. But they were shaky against Qatar on Thursday. The Maroon dominated play for much of that game while outshooting the Yanks by an 18-6 margin. It was a goal from Gyasi Zardes in the 86th minute to win that match. Six of the Americans’ ten goals were against Martinique, the minnows of this tournament. Winning this event will be icing on the cake for Berhalter. For this Mexico team, manager Gerardo “Tito” Martino has described winning this tournament as “an obligation” given the level of excitement in the country. While El Tri does not have some of their top players like Chicharito Hernandez and Raul Jimenez are not on this roster, Martino probably has assembled the B+ team to defend their 2019 Gold Cup title. Since the loss to the Americans in June, El Tri did not concede a goal until the 57th minute against a game Canada side on Thursday.
FINAL TAKE: This match will be played in Las Vegas at the new Allegiant Stadium — but the USMNT will not retain a familiarity edge since none of them have ever played on that pitch. I am not sure if the crowd advantage will be overwhelmingly pro-USA either with many fans expected to cheer for Mexico. The El Tri roster is more experienced and more talented than what the Yanks have in this tournament. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Match of the Year with Mexico (234201) minibus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234202). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-21 |
Canada v. Mexico -1 |
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1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Mexico (234524) minus the goal-line versus Canada (234523) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. To compound matters, Les Rouges are also without their center back Steven Vittoria who anchors their backline — and that is not a good sign for a defense that allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score. The Canadiens' win against Costa Rica was against a Ticos side playing without their top goalkeeper who was suspended for the match. Mexico may have played their best match in the tournament with their 3-0 victory against an albeit depleted Honduras side dealing with a COVID outbreak. Despite only scoring four times in the Group Stage, the shot and possessions numbers were solid. And El Tri has a stout defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. Mexico has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month.
FINAL TAKE: Mexico manager Gerardo “Tito” Martino has claimed winning this tournament is “an obligation.” While Canada is on the rise, El Tri remains the superior program who brought a better team to this event — and who have not been hit as hard by the injury and suspension bug. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Thursday Late Show Bailout with Mexico (234524) minus the goal-line versus Canada (234523). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-21 |
Canada v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-135 |
3 h 25 m |
Show
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At 10:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Canada (W3-D0-L1) reached the Semifinals with their 2-0 victory against Costa Rica in the Quarterfinals on Sunday. Mexico (W3-D1-L0) advanced from the Quarterfinals with their 3-0 victory against Honduras on Saturday. This match is being played at NRG Stadium in Houston.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Let’s not read too much into the offensive assault by El Tri against a La Selecta side that was missing a handful of players (including a few starters) from a COVID outbreak. El Tri has struggled to generate goals in this tournament with only four goals in their three Group Stage matches — including three goals against a Guatemala side that was one of the minnows in this tournament. Scoring looked to be the biggest challenge for manager Gerardo Martino’s side with Raul Jimenez training for his return to Wolverhampton in the English Premier League. Martino could have turned to Javier Hernandez — but his ongoing personal feud with Chicharito appears to have played a role in the 33-year old not being invited to compete. Perhaps Martino wanted to use this event to embrace his younger players? But the plan was thwarted somewhat in their opening when Napoli forward Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury. While the clinical scoring talent on this team is diminished, Mexico remains quite stout on defense. They have yet to surrender a goal in this tournament. El Tri has not allowed a goal in their last seven matches after losing to the USMNT in the Finals of the CONCACAF Nations Cup last month. Canada is far from full strength in its attack. Manager John Herdman has lost forwards Cyle Larin and Aho Akinola to injury — forcing him to call up Orlando City forward Tesho Akindele to the squad before the Quarterfinals. To compound matters, Vancouver White Caps forward Lucas Cavallini is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card of the tournament in the Quarterfinal against Costa Rica. The Canucks were already without their two best offensive players in Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David who resumed their training in Europe for their professional clubs, Bayern Munich and Lille. Herdman is likely to engage in defensive tactics with the hopes of eking out a low-scoring match — and he would happily take his chances with penalty kicks to resolve the match.
FINAL TAKE: Canada had allowed all three of their Group Stage opponents to score goals — but none of those teams registered more than once including the United States. They held Costa Rica to just five shots with none on target in what was likely a harbinger as to how they will attempt to play this match given their injuries. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Canada (234523) and Mexico (234524) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-29-21 |
Qatar v. United States OVER 2.25 |
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0-1 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
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At 7:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Qatar (234249) and the USMNT (234250) in the Semifinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Qatar (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Semifinals with their 3-2 win against El Salvador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. The USMNT (W4-D0-L0) reached the Semifinals with their 1-0 win against Jamaica on Sunday. This match will be played at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Qatar raced out to a 3-0 lead against El Salvador by the 55th minute of their match on Saturday — but they looked shaky on defense the rest of the way after allowing Joaquin Rivas to score twice in the five minute span before hanging on to win the match for the remaining 22 or so minutes. The Maroon was also exposed on defense by Haiti who rallied three times against them before both teams settled for a 3-3 draw in the Group Stage. Qatar has shut out their other two opponents in this tournament — and they registered clean sheets in six of their seven matches when winning the Asian Cup in 2019. So, what gives? The defining difference appears to be when manager Felix Sanchez’s team plays quality competition. In their last five matches against teams ranked in FIFA’s Top-50, Qatar has conceded at least one goal in six of those contests — this includes four friendlies and three matches in the Copa America 2019. Even in their 2-0 shutout win against Honduras in the Group Stage, they benefited from play a side without their best striker Alberth Eliss to injury before Romell Quioto left the match with an injury of his own. The USMNT ranks 20th in the world by FIFA. They have scored nine times in their four matches. The Stars and Stripes has scored in nine straight Gold Cup Semifinal matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight Gold Cup Semifinal contests. While the Americans have conceded only once in this tournament, they will face their most potent attack tonight from a Qatar side that leads the tournament with 12 goals. It would be a mistake to underestimate the Maroon who are highly committed to their national team in preparation of their hosting the World Cup to close out 2022. Qatar was supposed to play in the more challenging Copa America this summer before a COVID outbreak changed their plans to get invited to this event.
FINAL TAKE: Both teams are used to fast starts — and that dictates tactics in the Knockout Stage. Qatar has scored in the first 25 minutes in three straight matches. The United States scored their first goal in the first 15 minutes in all three of their Group Stage matches. 10* CONCACAF Gold Cup Thursday Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Qatar (234249) and the USMNT (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-25-21 |
Jamaica +1.25 v. United States |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
50 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246) in the Quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Jamaica (W2-D0-L1) comes off a 1-0 loss to Costa Rica in their final Group Stage match on Tuesday. The USMNT (W3-D0-L0) earned a perfect record in the Group Stage with their 1-0 win against Canada last Sunday. This match will be played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE JAMAICA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Stars and Stripes were not really tested before the match with Canada last week in this tournament. Haiti and Martinique were not competitive in the Group Stage. And while Team USA scored in the opening minute against the Canucks, they looked shaky on defense in the second half of that match. The Americans also lost a key member of their backline when captain Walker Zimmerman left the game in the first half with an injury that will keep him out the rest of the tournament. Zimmerman was the 2020 MLS Defensive Player of the Year — so his absence is a big loss. Manager Gregg Berhalter was already relying on younger players for this event with the key players from the group that won the CONCACAF Nations League title last month now training for their professional leagues in Europe. This is a B team competing for the Gold Cup — there is no Christian Pulisic, Giovanni Reyna, Zack Stefan, and Josh Sargent on this roster. The top ten players on the roster, as rated by the transfer market analytics, are not playing in this event. Team chemistry and cohesion — as well as experience in international competitions — remain question marks. Jamaica has an experienced roster made up of a core of players that have reached three straight Semifinals in the Gold Cup. While they lost their last match to Costa Rica last week, manager Theodore Whitmore was able to rest players since they had already qualified for the Knockout Stage. The Reggae Boyz get Bobby Reid back for this match after being on the COVID list — he has recent English Premier League experience. Wing Leon Bailey plays for Bayer Leverkusen. Forward Corey Burke, defenseman Alvas Powell, and keeper Andre Blake all star for Philadelphia Union in the MLS.
FINAL TAKE: Jamaica will be confident they can pull the upset against this roster of Americans after their recent experiences against them in this tournament. They lost to the Stars and Stripes by a 3-1 score in the 2019 Gold Cup Semifinals only after Pulisic scored his second goal in the 87th minute. Pulisic is not playing today. The Reggae Boyz lost to the USMNT in the 2017 Semifinals by just a 2-1 score —and they upset them in the 2015 Gold Cup Semifinals by a 2-1 score. They may not win, but they should keep it close with extra time a distinct possibility. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Quarterfinals Match of the Year with Jamaica (234245) plus the goal-line versus the USMNT (234246). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-24-21 |
Honduras v. Mexico -1 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 10:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Mexico (234238) minus the goal-line versus Honduras (234237) in the Quarterfinals of the Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W2-D1-L0) claimed first place in Group A with their 1-0 victory against El Salvador last Sunday. Honduras (W2-D0-L1) settled for second place in Group D with their 2-0 loss to Qatar. This match will be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.
REASONS TO TAKE MEXICO MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: I considered Honduras in this match — but a pair of injuries in their match against Qatar and then a COVID outbreak in their camp leaves them severely undermanned to pull the upset in this match. The COVID outbreak that was announced earlier today will remove two starters from the pitch and impact their depth — from what I can tell from the reports drifting out. CF Montreal striker Romell Quioto is not in their starting XI after he left the Qatar match just 26 minutes into the contest with a leg injury. With 25-year wing Alberth Ellis already out of the tournament with a broken toe, that leaves Los Catrachos without a forward on the roster who plays outside their domestic league. Of even bigger concern is that their captain, Maynor Figueroa, also left the Qatar match before halftime with a knock. The 41-year-old Houston Dynamo defender is starting tonight — but is that out of necessity? He may not be at 100%. Frankly, his injury status had me dismiss an Under play I was seriously considering as well. This could be a route for Mexico. Honduras’ opening 4-0 victory against Grenada was against the worst team in the tournament. Allowing Panama to score twice is a warning sign about the shape of their defense (even when healthy). The four goals they have allowed in this event are the highest amongst the eight quarterfinal teams. Los Catrachos did not manage a shot on goal against Qatar earlier this week. Now they face a Mexico side that has six straight clean sheets — and they have only allowed three shots on target in their three matches in this tournament. El Tri is missing some of their firepower up top. Raul Jimenez is training with Wolverhampton for his return to the English Premier League. Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez is in the doghouse of manager Gerardo Martinez so he was left off the squad (and he is dealing with a knock this summer). Then Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffered a tournament-ending head injury in their opening match against Trinidad & Tobago. Mexico has scored only one goal in their two matches that were not against Guatemala. But El Tri still has attacking talent that every other team in this tournament would love to have — especially Jesus “Tecatito” Corona and Alan Pulido — and Rogelio Funes Mori had a brace in his opening match in this tournament. Mexico’s possession and shot numbers in the Group Stage were good — they played two of their matches against sides playing five in the back that had hot goalkeepers. It happens.
FINAL TAKE: Another clean sheet for Mexico is likely. El Tri should score — and that will force Honduras to play more openly. Rumors have it that their manager, Fabian Coito, is also out with COVID. These two teams played to a 0-0 draw in a friendly on June 12th — but the circumstances are much different this time around. Mexico has depth that Honduras simply does not have. The injuries and COVID outbreak are devastating. 20* CONCACAF Gold Cup Saturday Late Show Bailout with Mexico (234238) minus the goal-line versus Honduras (234237). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-15-21 |
United States v. Martinique UNDER 3.75 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-107 |
4 h 40 m |
Show
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At 9:30 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258) in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: The USMNT (W1-D0-L0) comes off a 1-0 win against Haiti in their opening match in this competition on Sunday. Martinique (W0-D0-L1) looks to rebound from a 4-1 loss to Canada in their opening match in Group B play on Sunday. This match will be played at Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, Kansas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gregg Berhalter chose an inexperienced starting XI on Sunday — and he will likely continue with that approach tonight against the small Caribbean nation. Berhalter’s goal is to help establish more reliable depth for the Stars and Stripes to call upon as they continue their World Cup qualifying matches for Qatar next fall. And the teams’ best players like attacking midfielder Christian Pulisic, striker Josh Sargent, and midfielder Giovanni Reyna are not on the roster given their professional responsibilities for their European professional league training. This roster only began training together last week — so chemistry and cohesion in the attack may take some time to develop. The Stars and Stripes loan goal on Sunday was from defender Sam Vines may his first start in international competition — and it was against a shorthanded Haiti side missing five players after a COVID outbreak on the team. Attacker Paul Arriola had to leave that match with a hamstring injury after 14 minutes into the contest — so I really do not know about the attacking talent that Berhalter will have at his disposal. Berhalter wants his team to press and control possession — and this helps for them to overwhelm lesser opponents. They have now generated clean sheets in seven of their last ten matches on home soil — and they have conceded only four times in those ten matches. Martinique scored first in their 4-1 loss to Canada but that was from a miscue by the Canucks that afforded Emmanuel Riviere that scoring chance. Les Matinino was playing for the first time since November of 2019 given the pandemic and their limited resources. In their final two home-and-home matches against Honduras in the CONCACAF Nations League in the fall of 2019, they only scored one time — but they conceded just twice. Martinique’s loss to Canada was just their second defeat in their last five matches — and they only lost that one match to Honduras in their five CONCACAF Nations League contests. Manager Mario Bocaly will have his team play cautiously — and what his team lacks in international competition, they make up for in cohesion since most play domestically in Martinique.
FINAL TAKE: Canada is a potent attacking side — so the four goals that Les Matinino allowed may speak more about the Canadiens than it does about Martinique’s defensive quality. They should play better with a match now under their belt against hostile competition for the first time in 20 months. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group B Total of the Year Under the Total in the match between the USMNT (234257) and Martinique (234258). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-14-21 |
Mexico v. Guatemala UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250) on Group A play in the CONCACAF Gold Cup. THE SITUATION: Mexico (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match on Saturday. Guatemala (W0-D0-L1) lost to El Salvador in their opening match by a 2-0 score on Sunday. This match will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Mexico peppered Trinidad and Tobago with 30 shots in that opening match on Saturday — but only seven were on target. Manager Gerardo Martino lost one of his best offensive players in that match with Hirving “Chucky” Lozano suffering a head injury that will keep him out for the rest of the tournament. El Tri is already without their best striker in Raul Jimenez who remains out after suffering a significant head injury playing for Wolverhampton in the English Premier League in the fall. Mexico may not have the firepower — and the cohesion in their attack — to score more than three goals in this match. But El Tri will likely earn their fifth straight clean sheet. Mexico has not allowed a shot on target in three straight matches. Guatemala was given a second chance to compete in this tournament when Curacao had to drop out the day before the event started because of a COVID outbreak. Los Chapines had lost their final qualifying match to compete in this tournament in a heartbreaking 10-9 loss via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score with Guadeloupe on July 6th. Guatemala played El Salvador tough on Sunday with that match being scoreless until La Selecta scored their first goal in the 81st minute. Interim manager Rafael Loredo will have his team park the bus — this team had not allowed a team to score more than one goal against them since a 2-0 loss to Paraguay in June 2019. Furthermore, Los Chapines have allowed only three goals in their last 12 matches across all competitions. They have a good goalkeeper in Nicholas Hagen who has five clean sheets himself in 2021.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in a friendly on September 30th with Mexico winning by a 3-0 score. That seems the worst-case scenario score for the Guatemalans who have gained in chemistry and cohesion from their summer experiences. El Tri has a sketchy recent past in second-round matches in the Group Stage of the Gold Cup with only one win and two 0-0 draws. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* CONCACAF Gold Cup Group A Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mexico (234249) and Guatemala (234250). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-21 |
England v. Italy UNDER 2 |
|
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (234125) and Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going — and he is likely to continue to engage in conservative tactics in this championship match. Italy entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they would go on to hold their opponents scoreless for over 1000 consecutive minutes before Austria scored against them in the Round of 16. The Azzurri have allowed only three goals in this event — and their 6.01 expected goals allowed is the second-lowest in the field to England. And while the Italians have scored 12 goals, they have managed only four goals in their three Knockout Stage matches.
FINAL TAKE: This should be a cagey, low-scoring match. 10* Euro 2020 Sunday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (234125) and Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-11-21 |
England v. Italy |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126) in the Finals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W5-D1-L0) reached the Finals of the Euro 2020 with their 2-1 win against Denmark on Wednesday. Italy (W5-D1-L0) advanced to the Finals with their 4-2 penalty kick shootout win against Spain that resolved their 1-1 draw after 120 minutes of play on Tuesday. This match will be played at Wembley Field in London.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: While some have criticized manager Gareth Southgate for his starting XI selections, I think he has been brilliant in shaping this talented roster into a defensive-first group. Defensive tactics tend to be rewarded in international tournaments — and defense has been the Achilles’ heel for this group in their recent major tournaments. The Three Lions have only conceded one goal in this tournament — and they have yet to concede a Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with a 35% or higher expected rate of return. They have allowed only 3.59 expected goals in this tournament which is the lowest mark in the event. After allowing a goal to Denmark in the 30th minute, England locked down the Danes to just two shots and a mere 0.3 expected goals in the second half. And while Southgate has been criticized for not doing enough to get the English attack going, they have generated 2.24 expected goals per match in their three Knockout Stage matches. Italy was outplayed by Spain according to the analytics with them losing the expected goals battle by a 1.74-0.78 xG margin. La Roja exposed a vulnerability of the Azzurri down the middle with their savvy veteran pair of center backs Leonardi Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini being talented but both have lost a step or two. England has better finishing talent at forward with the likes of Harry Kane and the in-form Raheem Sterling (amongst an embarrassment of riches of talent). Italy was outstanding in the Group Stage — but they did benefit from a weak trio of competitors in Turkey, Wales, and a solid but unspectacular Switzerland side. They needed extra time against Austria before catching a break against Belgium in the Quarterfinals with them playing with Eden Hazard. Italy is also without left back Leonardo Spinazzola who suffered a ruptured Achilles against Belgium. Not only does Spinazzola important to their backline, but he played an important role in the Italian attack as a left wing.
FINAL TAKE: England has the advantage playing on their home soil — so they have a familiarity edge along with the home crowd and referees responding to the cheering fans. Ultimately, the talent on England’s roster is superior to that of Italy. The English Premier League outshines Serie A currently. And the Three Lions have been building to this moment since their Round of 16 finish in the 2016 Euro before reaching the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup. Italy failed to qualify for the most recent World Cup. 25* Euro 2020 Match of the Year with England (234125) minus the goal-line versus Italy (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-21 |
Argentina v. Brazil -0.25 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-115 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Brazil (234430) minus the goal-line versus Argentina (234429) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO BRAZIL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. The Selecao lead all teams in this tournament with a net expected goal differential of +12.43 — and that includes the Ecuador match with their B-team. Brazil also has the best defense in the event and the best keeper in Manchester City’s starter Ederson (and the second-best keeper in his back-up Alisson who stars for Liverpool). The Selecao does not have the services of Gabriel Jesus tonight as he serves the second game of his two-game suspension from being issued a red card with a reckless cleats-out high kick in the Quarterfinals match against Chile. That might be addition by subtraction as the Man City forward has not progressed beyond a poacher that benefits from more talented teammates. Argentina comes off a shootout scare against a Colombia team that only beat Peru in the final minute of extra time last night (thankfully …). Their expected goals process is good at +11.07 net expected goal differential — but their numbers are propped up with a 4-1 win against Bolivia who was the worst team in the tournament. La AlbiCeleste has scored only seven goals in five matches if you overlook the Bolivia cakewalk. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack.
FINAL TAKE: The Lionel Messi Narrative of him still seeking his first international title is compelling — but he simply does not have the supporting cast against this loaded Brazil team. The Selecao have the better metrics — even before Argentina’s bloated numbers versus Bolivia and their second-string playing Ecuador is taken into account. Brazil has the better defense. They have an extra day of rest. They have the significant benefit of home soil — so the familiarity of Maracana Stadium and the pressure of the refs accommodating the home team are advantages. And Neymar is motivated for Brazil since he has never lifted a Copa America trophy for his national team after being injured in 2019. The Selecao can repeat as Copa America champions for the first time since 2007. 10* Copa America Saturday Daily Discounted Deal with Brazil (234430) minus the goal-line versus Argentina (234429). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-10-21 |
Argentina v. Brazil OVER 2 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-103 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430) in the Finals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D2-L0) advanced to the Finals of this tournament with their 3-2 victory from penalty kicks against Colombia on Tuesday after that match ended in a 1-1 score after regulation time. Brazil (W5-D1-L0) defeated Peru by a 1-0 score to reach the Finals on Monday. This match will be played at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These are the two highest-scoring teams in the tournament — and while both sides also have surrounded the fewest goals in this event, neither has played an opponent as explosive as they will tonight. I think both defenses will be exposed. Argentina only scored once against a counter-attacking Colombia side in the Semifinals — but they generated a healthy 2.45 expected goals (xG). La Albiceleste has scored 11 times in this event — but their xG rises to 15.92 for a robust 2.66 xG per match average. Lionel Messi leads the way with four goals and five assists. He is averaging 1.18 expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. I do not see Brazil blanking the Barcelona star even though he has yet to score a goal in his career against them. He has a good thing going with Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez who has scored in three straight matches. The Argentina defense is a bit shaky especially with the aging Nicolas Otamendi at center back. This is the first match in this tournament that La Albiceleste will be playing a team that is happy to play on their front foot, rather than embrace a cautious counterattack. Brazil deserved more in their 1-0 win against Peru after generating 2.57 xG. The Selecao has scored 12 times in this event while producing 17.85 xG for a 2.93 xG per 90 minutes average. Throw out the 1-1 draw with Ecuador since their manager, Tite rested starters in that third Group Stage match. In Brazil’s other five matches, they generated at least 2.5 xG in each contest. And while the Selecao has only conceded two goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) is more than twice that at 5.15.
FINAL TAKE: While finals can often evolve into cagey, lower-scoring affairs, I suspect that this match may be lively. Messi is in as top-notch form as he has ever been playing for his national team — and he has a younger and more athletic supporting cast than he has had in recent years. Brazil is a powerhouse that has underachieved its metrics despite averaging 2.0 Goals-Per-Game. 25* Copa America Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Argentina (234429) and Brazil (234430). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-09-21 |
Colombia -0.5 v. Peru |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Colombia (234425) minus the goal-line versus Peru (234426) in the Third Place Playoff Match in Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D1-L3) lost a heartbreaker in the Semifinals of the Copa America in a 3-2 loss to Argentina in the shootout after a 1-1 score after regulation time on Tuesday. Peru (W3-D1-L2) lost a narrow 1-0 loss to Brazil in their Semifinals match on Monday. This match will be played at the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia in Brasilia, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE COLOMBIA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: After a slow start to the tournament, the Colombians have steadily improved. They only lost 2-1 to Brazil before outlasting a quality Uruguay side via penalty kicks in the Quarterfinals and then playing Lionel Messi and Argentina very close in the Semifinals. This team had to adjust to being without their best player, James Rodriguez after the Everton midfielder ended his English Premier League campaign with an injury that kept him out of his last two matches. Colombia has won the expected goals battle in four of their six matches — with the only xG losses being to Argentina and Brazil who will be playing in the Finals tomorrow night. While they have scored only four goals, they have an expected goals mark of 6.89. Peru has been leaky on defense — they have surrendered 11 goals with the expected goals even worse with a 13.47 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Los Incas have lost the expected goals battle in five of their six matches in this tournament — so they have been fortunate to advance this far. Brazil generated 2.57 expected goals in their Semifinals match on Monday but could only score one time. Peru is one of the better sides in South America — they competed in the 2018 World Cup where they won a match but did not advance into the Knockout Stage. But Los Incas are struggling to qualify for the 2022 World Cup as they are currently last in their qualifying group.
FINAL TAKE: Colombia will have a motivational edge for this contest after losing to Peru in the Group Stage of this event on June 20th by a 2-1 score. Los Cafeteros won the expected goals battle by a 1.66 to 1.00 mark but still lost the match to Los Incas. Look for an improving Colombia team to exact revenge. 25* Copa America FS2-TV Match of the Year with Colombia (234425) minus the goal-line versus Peru (234426). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-09-21 |
Colombia v. Peru OVER 2.25 |
|
3-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 8:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Colombia (234425) and Peru (234426) in the Third Place Playoff Match in Copa America. THE SITUATION: Colombia (W2-D1-L3) lost a heartbreaker in the Semifinals of the Copa America in a 3-2 loss to Argentina in the shootout after a 1-1 score after regulation time on Tuesday. Peru (W3-D1-L2) lost a narrow 1-0 loss to Brazil in their Semifinals match on Monday. This match will be played at the Estadio Nacional de Brasilia in Brasilia, Brazil.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: With the only stakes for his match being bragging rights, expect a more open contest between these two teams that tend to prefer to counter-attack. These consolation Third Place matches tend to be higher-scoring. Four of the last six Third Place contests in the Copa America has seen at least three combined goals scored. After a slow start to the tournament, the Colombians have steadily improved. They only lost 2-1 to Brazil in their final Group Stage match. They were fortunate to only allow one goal to Argentina on Tuesday despite giving up 2.45 expected goals (xGA). This team had to adjust to being without their best player, James Rodriguez after the Everton midfielder ended his English Premier League campaign with an injury that kept him out of his last two matches. While they have scored only four goals, they have an expected goals mark of 6.89. Two of their last four matches have seen at least three combined goals scored. Peru has been leaky on defense — they have surrendered 11 goals with the expected goals even worse with a 13.47 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Brazil generated 2.57 expected goals in their Semifinals match on Monday but could only score one time. Los Incas were blanked in their two matches against tournament favorite Brazil — but they have scored at least two goals in three of their other four matches. Four of their six matches in this event have seen at least three combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Colombia will have a motivational edge for this contest after losing to Peru in the Group Stage of this event on June 20th by a 2-1 score. Look for another higher-scoring match. 10* Copa America Friday Discounted O/U Deal with Over the Total in the match between Colombia (234425) and Peru (234426). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-21 |
Denmark v. England -0.5 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-150 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing England (234122) minus the goal-line versus Denmark (234121) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W4-D1-L0) reached the Semifinals of the Euro 2020 with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine on Saturday. Denmark (W3-D0-L2) has won three straight matches after their 2-1 win against the Czech Republic on Saturday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Momentum is an important consideration when handicapping soccer — particularly international soccer in these short-season tournaments. The Three Lions come off their best effort of the tournament with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine. England limited Ukraine to just 0.26 expected goals while producing their fifth straight clean sheet in this event. The defensive effort for manager Gareth Southgate has been almost flawless. They have given up the second-fewest shot-creating actions — and they have allowed the third-fewest passes into the penalty area. While England Soccer Twitter bashes Southgate for not playing more of the bigger names on the roster that put up big scoring numbers in the English Premier League, he has emphasized defensive tactics first (and second) while being able to rely on an embarrassment of riches of attacking talent if his team needs to score goals late in the match. The Three Lions get Bukayo Saku back from a knock that kept him out of the Quarterfinals match — the 19-year-old Arsenal midfielder is a good defensive player who offers speed on the outside. England also has the best win of these two sides with their victory against Germany. Denmark looked tired in the second half in their 2-1 victory against the Czechs. They lost the expected goals battle, 1.70-1.61, in that match — although the game state needs to be taken into account that the Red and Whites took a 2-0 lead going into the second half so they had the cushion to play defensively. Denmark is playing great — and the laptops love them. But good analytics only go so far when dealing with small sample sizes. The Danes have simply not had a difficult road. They played in a weak group that included Russia and Finland. I give Denmark a pass for the loss to the Finns given the scary incident with Christian Eriksen. Their most difficult opponent in the Group Stage was against Belgium in their other loss in this tournament. Backers can point to the Red and Whites winning the expected goals battle — but taking game state into account is a two-way street. Belgium scored their two goals in the second half once Kevin DeBruyne entered the match at halftime. The trip to the Semifinals was as soft as possible facing an aging Wales team and a decent, at best, Czech side.
FINAL TAKE: Denmark has emotion on their side given how they have rallied together around Eriksen. But England has the significant home soil edge. 65,000 fans help — and so does the impact those screaming supporters have on the referee. The Three Lions are very comfortable and familiar with the pitch. The Danes benefited from playing their three group stage matches on home soil. Ultimately, England has the better roster from top-to-bottom. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Match of the Year with England (234122) minus the goal-line versus Denmark (234121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-07-21 |
Denmark v. England UNDER 2.25 |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Denmark (234121) and England (234122) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W4-D1-L0) reached the Semifinals of the Euro 2020 with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine on Saturday. Denmark (W3-D0-L2) has won three straight matches after their 2-1 win against the Czech Republic on Saturday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Three Lions come off their best effort of the tournament with their 4-0 victory against Ukraine. England limited Ukraine to just 0.26 expected goals while producing their fifth straight clean sheet in this event. The defensive effort for manager Gareth Southgate has been almost flawless. They have given up the second-fewest shot-creating actions — and they have allowed the third-fewest passes into the penalty area. While England Soccer Twitter bashes Southgate for not playing more of the bigger names on the roster that put up big scoring numbers in the English Premier League, he has emphasized defensive tactics first (and second) while being able to rely on an embarrassment of riches of attacking talent if his team needs to score goals late in the match. The Three Lions get Bukayo Saku back from a knock that kept him out of the Quarterfinals match — the 19-year-old Arsenal midfielder is a good defensive player who offers speed on the outside. Southgate’s decision to play Saku instead of Jadon Sancho is a likely tell that more cautionary tactics are on the horizon for England. He will save Sancho, Jack Grealish, and Marcus Rashford for extra time and penalty kicks. Denmark has been most impressive on the defensive end of the pitch with its shape and discipline. They limited the powerful Belgium team to only six shots. They have only given up two goals in their last three matches — and while they have conceded five goals overall, their expected goals allowed drops to just 4.83 xGA. Denmark has scored 11 goals in their last four matches — but only that Belgium match was against a team that was expected to make a deep run in the Knockout Stage.
FINAL TAKE: Expect a cagey, low-scoring match since neither side will want to concede the first goal. 10* Euro 2020 Wednesday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between Denmark (234121) and England (234122). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-06-21 |
Colombia v. Argentina -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-111 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 9:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Argentina (W4-D1-L0) has won four straight matches with their 3-0 victory against Ecuador in the Quarterfinals on Saturday. Colombia (W2-D1-L2) outlasted Uruguay by a 4-2 count in the penalty kick shootout after a scoreless match after regulation time in their Quarterfinals match on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARGENTINA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Colombia pulled a surprising upset against Uruguay — but they are underachieving in this tournament. They limped into this tournament with two losses in World Cup qualifying matches — and they have now only won three of their last seven matches. They lost to Peru and settled for a scoreless draw against Venezuela in matches they were favored to win. They have only scored three times in their five matches. The starting XI missed their star midfielder James Rodriguez after he was left off the roster because of the calf injury that kept him out of the last two matches for Everton in the English Premier League. They managed only 0.61 expected goals against Uruguay on Saturday. They only generated 0.29 expected goals in their final Group Stage match against Brazil. Argentina is rounding into form with seven goals in their last two matches while allowing just one goal. Lionel Messi has scored four goals and assisted on four other goals in his five matches in this tournament. La Albiceleste has scored 10 times while conceding just twice — and they notched an impressive clean sheet against Uruguay, who is probably the third-best team in the tournament.
FINAL TAKE: Messi has still not led Argentina to a major championship — so he should be very motivated to lead his team to a title match with Brazil. 25* Copa America Semifinals Match of the Year with Argentina (234422) minus the goal-line versus Colombia (234421). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-06-21 |
Spain v. Italy |
|
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Italy (234117) with the goal-line versus Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16. The Italians will miss left back Leonardo Spinazzola who ruptured his Achilles’ tendon late in the second half against Belgium. Italy should still have enough talent to outplay this Spanish team. Spain had a man-advantage at the 77th minute against Switzerland — but they could not score a second goal to take command of that match. They were fortunate that the Swiss missed four penalty kicks in what was a meager display from both sides. While Spain has been very active, they lack finishing talent. Their main attacker, Alvaro Morata, is more of a poacher than a clinical finisher. It is not surprising that La Roja’s 12 goals are far below their expected goals of 17.58 xG. The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: Fatigue may play a role in this match. Spain has played 120 minutes in each of their last two matches while Italy took care of Belgium in 90 minutes. La Roja has earned plenty of frequent flyer miles over the last two weeks with trips from Spain to Copenhagen and then to Saint Petersburg and now to London. Italy played all three of their Group Stage matches in Rome before a match at Wembley in the Round of 16 and then Munich in the Quarterfinals against Belgium. Not only did they travel fewer miles, but they have recent experience on this pitch. 10* Euro 2020 Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Italy (234117) with the goal-line versus Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-06-21 |
Spain v. Italy OVER 2 |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118) in the Semifinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W5-D0-L0) reached the semifinals of this tournament with their 2-1 win against Belgium on Friday. Spain (W3-D2-L0) defeated Switzerland by a 3-1 margin in the penalty kick shootout after that match was tied 1-1 after extra time on Friday. This match will be played at Wembley Stadium in London.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Italian National Team has long had the identity of being a defensive-oriented team — but manager Roberto Mancini has opened things up with his team this summer. The Azzurri have scored 11 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 11.27 indicate that they are meeting likely expectations regarding their scoring output. The Italians have scored at least two goals in four of their five matches. They lead all teams in this tournament in shot-creating actions. And while Italy had been riding a streak of over 1000 minutes without conceding a goal before Austria scored against them in the 114th minute in their Round of 16, the fact is that the Azzurri has allowed goals in their last two matches. In hindsight, perhaps the Italian defense was overrated a bit after a relatively easy group that included Turkey, Wales, and a solid Switzerland side. Italy conceded 1.86 expected goals against a Belgium team that was without Eden Hazard. Spain has scored 12 goals in their five matches — and their expected goals of 17.58 are most in the tournament. La Roja leads all teams in touches in the opponent’s penalty area, completed passes, and pass accuracy — and they are second in the event in shot-creating actions (to Italy). The Spanish defense has been shaky — they have allowed five goals in their last three matches. La Roja has conceded five goals in this tournament but their expected goals allowed rises to 7.50 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: The Italy backline lost one of its key players with left back Leonardo Spinazzola rupturing his Achilles’ tendon in the second half of the match with Belgium. These two teams have had the top two attacks in this event — and they will both play aggressively. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Italy (234117) and Spain (234118). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-21 |
Peru v. Brazil -1.75 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-119 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Brazil (234418) minus the goal-line versus Peru (234417) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO TAKE BRAZIL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes. The Selecao has a good chance of producing another clean sheet against the Peruvians tonight. They have three clean sheets in this tournament — and they allowed only two goals overall. They have allowed the fewest passed into the penalty area for all teams in the event. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Peru is last of the eight teams that reached the Quarterfinals in passes and carries into the opponent’s penalty area. They lost the expected goals battle in their upset win against Colombia and their draw with Ecuador. While Brazil has a net goal differential of +9 and an expected net goal differential of +11.69, Peru has been outscored by two goals — and they have an expected net goal differential of -3.2.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 10* Copa American Peru-Brazil FS1-TV Special with Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-21 |
Peru v. Brazil OVER 2.75 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 26 m |
Show
|
At 7:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418) in the Semifinals of the Copa America. THE SITUATION: Peru (W3-D1-L1) reached the Semifinals of the Copa America 2021 by defeating Paraguay in the penalty shootout by a 4-3 score after that game ended in regulation at 3-3. Brazil (W4-D1-L0) defeated Chile in the Quarterfinals by a 1-0 score. This match will be played at the Olympic Stadium in Rio de Janeiro.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: These two teams played in their opening match in Group B play on June 17th — and Brazil scored four times in the 4-0 victory. Peru lacks talent on its backline. They have surrendered 10 goals in their five matches — and the expected goals allowed are 10.9 xGA. What was troubling about their Quarterfinals match with Paraguay was they surrendered their final two goals despite playing with a man advantage in the second half. La Blanquirroja is last of the eight teams to make the Quarterfinals in allowing shot creation actions in the final third of the pitch. Brazil only scored one goal in their Quarterfinals match with Chile but they were playing almost half that match down a man after Gabriel Jesus’ ill-advised feet-first leap with his cleats earned him a well-deserved red card at the 48th minute. Jesus is suspended for this match — which may be addition by subtraction given all the depth the Selecao has in their attack. Brazil has scored 11 times in their five matches — and their expected goals rise to 15.01 xG. They are second in the tournament for most passes into their opponent’s penalty area — and they lead all teams for touches in the final third. Neymar is averaging 0.92 expected goals per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played in Copa America 2019 final with Brazil winning by a 3-1 score. Expect a similar result tonight. Brazil has too much scoring firepower — and they will want to put on a show in front of their home fans. 25* Copa American Semifinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Peru (234417) and Brazil (234418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-03-21 |
England v. Ukraine UNDER 2.5 |
|
4-0 |
Loss |
-130 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between England (234133) and Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Manager Gareth Southgate has England playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. The Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt — they are averaging just 0.08 shots per possession which is last of the teams in the Quarterfinals. Ukraine’s win against Sweden has only two combined goals scored after regulation time. The Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. The Yellow-Blue was near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third.
FINAL TAKE: England has an excellent chance for their fifth-straight clean sheet. Because of that, Southgate will likely continue to have his team play super conservative. I do not see more than two combined goals scored in regulation time. 10* Euro Saturday Afternoon Discounted O/U Deal with Under the Total in the match between England (234133) and Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-21 |
England -1 v. Ukraine |
Top |
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: England (W3-D1-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-0 victory against Germany on Tuesday. Ukraine (W2-D0-L2) defeated Sweden, 2-1, in the Round of 16. This match is being played on a neutral field at Stadio Olimpico in Rome, Italy.
REASONS TO TAKE ENGLAND MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: We had Sweden in that Round of 16 match with Ukraine. The Yellow-Blue took the lead with a goal from Oleksandr Zinchenko in the 27th minute before the Swedes tied the score 16 minutes later. Sweden outplayed Ukraine for most of the match but could not score the winning goal in regulation (ruining our play). But the Ukrainians seized the upper hand when Sweden was issued a red card in the 99th minute. Ukraine then generated 1.10 of their 1.98 expected goals with the man advantage with Artem Dovbyk scoring the winning at 120+1 minutes just before going to penalty kicks. Rather fortunate, once again. Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Entering this match, Ukraine is last of the teams in the quarterfinals by starting only 3.5 possessions per 90 minutes in the final third of the field. They are also last of the final eight teams by letting their opponents start 10.6 possessions per 90 minutes in their final third. England is loaded with talent. Manager Gareth Southgate has his team playing very cautiously — but that is why they have not allowed a goal yet in this tournament. Opponents are averaging just 0.08 expected goals per shot attempt, the third-lowest of the quarterfinalists They are allowing the third-fewest passes leading to a shot, and the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions. And while the Three Kings are not peppering the opposing keepers with many shots, they are averaging 0.18 expected goals per shot attempt, the highest mark of the eight teams in the quarterfinals. With wins over Germany, Croatia, and the Czech Republic, England has defeated three opponents that made the Knockout Stage and who would all probably defeat this Ukraine side.
FINAL TAKE: Take away the 21 minutes when they had the man advantage against Sweden along with their match against North Macedonia (perhaps the worst team in the tournament) — Ukraine has a -3.19 expected goal differential. They should finally get exposed this afternoon. 25* Euro 2020 ABC-TV Match of the Year with England (234133) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234134). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-21 |
Italy v. Belgium UNDER 2.25 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (234105) and Belgium (234106) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy (W4-D0-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-1 win against Austria last Saturday. Belgium (W4-D0-L0) survived Portugal by a 1-0 score in their Round of 16 match last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy did not allow a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play before surrendering a goal in the 114th minute to the Austrians. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the Group Stage. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. Entering this match, they are allowing only 0.08 shots per opponent possession in this tournament. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season - — he lacks a clinical finish. They were scoreless in regulation time against Austria before finding the back of the net twice in the extra time period. Belgium is allowing 0.17 shots per possession in this event — but they are limiting their opponents to just 0.07 expected goals (xG) per shot attempt which is the best mark in the tournament. The Red Devils’ backline may be old — but they veterans with tons of experience in international and club play. Belgium may also have the best keeper in the world in Real Madrid’s Thibault Courtois. The biggest problem for manager Roberto Martinez is the potential absence of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard who both left the match against Portugal with injuries in the second half. They are game-time decisions. While Romelu Lukaku is the goal scorer up top, De Bruyne and Hazard are vital to the Belgium attack. As it is, the Red Devils have much to be desired in their attack in this tournament. They are averaging only 0.25 expected goals per shot that are on target — that is last of the remaining eight teams in the event. And while the Red Devils have scored eight times, their expected goals drop to just 4.66 xG in their four matches. Belgium does not press — so they do force the tempo nor often get caught. 96% of the shots they allow have at least two defenders between the shot attempt and the goal — as opposed to the 85% average in this tournament.
FINAL TAKE: This shapes up to be a cagey, low-scoring affair — even if Belgium has De Bruyne and/or Hazard available to play. I do not see one of these teams scoring twice in regulation time. 25* Euro 2020 Friday Afternoon O/U Special Feature with Under the Total in the match between Italy (234105) and Belgium (234106). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-21 |
Italy v. Belgium +0.5 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-165 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Belgium (234106) plus the goal-line versus Italy (234105) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Belgium (W4-D0-L0) survived Portugal by a 1-0 score in their Round of 16 match last Sunday. Italy (W4-D0-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals with their 2-1 win against Austria last Saturday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany.
REASONS TO TAKE BELGIUM PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Italians have allowed only one goal in this event with Croatia scoring in the 114th minute to snap their streak of over 1000 minutes without allowing a goal. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season - — he lacks a clinical finish. They were scoreless in regulation time against Austria before finding the back of the net twice in the extra time period. Belgium is allowing 0.17 shots per possession in this event — but they are limiting their opponents to just 0.07 expected goals (xG) per shot attempt which is the best mark in the tournament. The Red Devils’ backline may be old — but they veterans with tons of experience in international and club play. Belgium may also have the best keeper in the world in Real Madrid’s Thibault Courtois. The biggest problem for manager Roberto Martinez is the potential absence of Kevin De Bruyne and Eden Hazard who both left the match against Portugal with injuries in the second half. They are game-time decisions. While Romelu Lukaku is the goal scorer up top, De Bruyne and Hazard are vital to the Belgium attack. Yet even if the Red Devils are without one or two of those star players, this is a veteran team that has lost only three matches in their last 58 contests since September of 2016.
FINAL TAKE: Belgium is ranked number one in the world by FIFA — and I consider them overrated from that perspective. I thought Italy was undervalued entering this tournament — but four straight wins have flipped the narrative too much. The Azzurri have benefited from playing a weak set of opponents — and it is not often that Belgium is an underdog. This match could easily go to extra time. And the icing on the cake is that DeBruyne is expected to play. 10* Euro 2020 Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Belgium (234106) plus the goal-line versus Italy (234105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-21 |
Spain -0.75 v. Switzerland |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-113 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Spain (234101) minus the goal-line versus Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.
REASONS TO TAKE SPAIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Spain has a +7 goal differential in their four matches which includes playing two solid teams in their Group in Sweden and Poland before defeating a capable Croatia side that reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup. Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. The Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes. Their upset of France was impressive — but, truth be told, the reigning World Cup champions were disorganized on defense which exposed their weaknesses down the middle with that squad this summer. The Swiss beat a bad Turkey team in the Group Stage while only managing a draw against an aging Wales side. Italy crushed them 3-0 while winning the expected goals battle by a 2.50-0.25 margin.
FINAL TAKE: I expect a bit of an emotional letdown from the Swiss after pulling off the upset of the tournament. If and when Spain scores first, the bubble will burst for this solid but perennially unspectacular Switzerland side. 10* Euro 2020 Spain-Switzerland ESPN Special with Spain (234101) minus the goal-line versus Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-02-21 |
Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-105 |
0 h 24 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102) in the Quarterfinals of the Euro 20220. THE SITUATION: Spain (W2-D2-L0) advanced to the Quarterfinals of the Euro 2020 with their 5-3 win after extra-time against Croatia in the Round of 16 on Monday. Switzerland (W2-D1-L1) upset France via a 5-4 win from penalty kicks after a 3-3 score in extra time in that Round of 16 match on Monday. This game will be played on a neutral pitch at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg, Russia.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Spain has been the most dominant possession team in this tournament. They have held the ball for over 60% of the time in all four of their matches — and their 73% possession mark overall for the tournament is more than 15% ahead of the next closest team. This possession is allowing them to create tons of chances — they have 70 shots in their four matches. While this activity did not generate as many goals as they hoped for in their first two matches, they have scored 10 goals in their last two matches — eight combined goals in regulation when subtracting the two goals they scored they scored in the 30-minute extra time sessions against Croatia. But La Roja are vulnerable to the counter-attack when they do lose possession. While they have conceded only four goals, their expected goals allowed (xGA) jumps to 6.58 xGA. They may be giving up only 6.0 shots per match, but these shots are high quality. In their four matches, their opponents are averaging 0.27 expected goals (xG) per shot. In their Golden Generation run in winning the 2008 Euro, the 2010 World Cup, and the 2012 Euro, the Reds allowed only 0.06 xG per shot. And while they took a step back in the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Euro, 2018 World Cup cycle from a competitive standpoint, they still held their opponents to just 0.14 xG per shot. In this Euro, their opponents have managed to take 10 shots that had an expected goal success rate of 0.3 or higher. In those three major international tournaments from 2014-2018, Spain conceded only 14 shots overall with an xG rating of 0.3 or higher. The Spanish defense — playing without Barcelona’s Sergio Ramos in the middle for the first time since 2004 — is vulnerable. Switzerland thrives in the counter-attack. They are fourth in this tournament in passes that lead to shots. They are fifth for the most touches in the penalty area. They are fifth in most shot-creating actions. But the Swiss are vulnerable on defense. Italy scored three times against them with an xG of 2.50. France scored three times in regulation time while generating 3.50 xG. The Swiss National Team gave up 67 touches in the penalty area against France and Italy. Switzerland is last of the eight remaining teams in this tournament by allowing 1.85 goals per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Styles make fights — and this should be a higher-scoring affair. Spain will control possession once again — and they will pepper the Swiss with plenty of shot attempts. But Switzerland should score at least once on the counter-attack on this susceptible Reds defense that is learning how to live without Ramos leading them in the back. 25* Euro 2020 Quarterfinals Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Spain (234101) and Switzerland (234102). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-21 |
Ukraine v. Sweden |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
1 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Sweden (W2-D1-L0) enters the Knockout Stage after their 3-2 win against Poland last Wednesday. Ukraine (W1-D0-L2) comes off a 1-0 loss to Austria eight days ago on June 21st. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Hampden Park in Glasgow, Scotland.
REASONS TO TAKE SWEDEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Ukraine's national soccer team continues to perpetuate a fraud. They won their Euro qualifying group despite an expected goal differential of just +0.9 xGD. And while they are unbeaten in World Cup qualifying matches, they have only won the expected goals battle in five of the eleven matches between those Euro and World Cup qualifiers before this tournament. They were near the bottom for total chances created of all the teams in the Euro qualifiers. They were fortunate to be placed in Group C for this event, widely considered the weakest of all six groups. In an opening 3-2 loss to the (now-eliminated) Netherlands, they only managed 0.70 expected goals but still scored twice. In that final loss to Austria, they managed only 0.36 xG. Their victory to give them three points was against North Macedonia who was perhaps the worst team in the tournament. They needed a draw against Austria to secure advancement, but only managed five shots and a mere 26 passes into the final third in a listless effort. The Yellow-Blue were outscored in Group Stage play and, once again, had a minus expected net goal differential of -0.8 xGD. Expected goals are not everything — but it is usually the highest-talented teams that outperform their xG. Expected goals assess average shot success, and the good players that are at the top of shot efficiency (the Lionel Messi’s of the world) have to play somewhere. But they are not on the Ukrainian National Team. Most of the roster for this team comes from the Ukrainian Premier League which the advanced metrics rank as the 12th best in the world. Midfielder Rusian Malinovskiy is a good player for Atalanta in Series A. Oleksandr Zinchenko plays a role for Manchester City — but he is asked to play out-of-position for the national team. Midfielder Andriy Yarmolenko stars for this team but is not one of the key players for West Ham United. This team did not qualify for the 2018 World Cup after losing five of their last six matches in the previous two Euros where they failed to advance out of the Group Stage. In short, the xG ain’t lying about this team. Sweden is solid if unspectacular. RB Leipzig midfielder Emil Forsberg is the real deal. The Blue and Yellow have two exciting young players in 17-year-old Alexander Isak and 20-year-old Dejan Kulusevski who play for Real Sociedad and Juventus. Manchester United’s Victor Lindelof is a quality center back. This is the Swedes’ sixth straight Euro. A scoreless draw with Spain is a quality result. Beating Slovakia and Poland are results much more impressive than a win against North Macedonia. This group has allowed only two goals in the Group Stage.
FINAL TAKE: The secret weapon of the Swedes in manager Janne Andersson who is on a five-year run with the national team including an improbable Quarterfinals run in the 2018 World Cup despite not having talisman Zlatan Ibrahimovic on the squad. Sweden is a hotbed for soccer talent, and Andersson is a tactical wizard. The Blue and Yellow will outclass the Yellow-Blue. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Match of the Year with Sweden (234186) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234185). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-21 |
Switzerland v. France UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
3-3 |
Loss |
-145 |
0 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170) in the Round of 16 of the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Switzerland (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout Stage with their 3-1 win against Turkey in their last Group Stage match last Sunday. France (W1-D2-L0) comes off a 2-2 draw with Portugal last Wednesday. This match is being played on a neutral pitch at Parken Stadium in Copenhagen, Denmark.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: France is the reigning World Cup champions — and they have some of the best-attacking talents in the world in Paris-Saint Germain’s Kylian Mbappe and Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema. But Les Bleus are a defensive-first team that prefers to generate offense on their counter-attack. This has been the recipe for success for manager Didier Deschamps in their 2016 Euro campaign when they lost in the Finals to Portugal and their World Cup championship team in 2018. France has scored only four times in this tournament in three matches — and only two of the goals were from open play. They benefited from Mats Hummels' own goal in their victory against Germany. They also got a penalty kick goal from Mbappe against Portugal. Even their lone goal against Hungary came from a bad gaffe from the Hungarians. France has generated only 4.5 expected goals in their three matches. This group seems to lack a plan to break down their opponent if they settle into a defensive posture (outside of hoping their elite talent will somehow find a way to score). Deschamps does not advance his fullbacks into an advanced position to complement the attack. And Barcelona forward Ousmane Dembele is injured taking away a super-sub attacking option for Deschamps. But the French defense remains immaculate. They have only allowed one goal from open play from their three games. Cristiano Ronaldo scored both of his goals on Wednesday from penalty kicks. Getting whistled for a penalty with the ball inside the box just does not happen very often. Switzerland lacks the dynamic scoring talent that tends to draw penalties either. The Swiss National Team only scored one goal against Wales and Italy before netting three goals against a suspect Turkey side. Xherdan Shaqiri scored twice in their match against the Turks — but the “Alpine Messi” has declined as a talent as a 30-year-old and rarely starts for Liverpool at this point in his career. The Swiss generate plenty of shots — they generated the third-most shots in the group stage. The problem is that the quality of shots is low — and they lack the talent to execute on these low-probability shots. The Rossacrociati have the fourth-lowest expected goals per shots attempt with many of their shots coming from long distance. But Switzerland remains a solid defensive side that will play disciplined fundamental defense. While they allowed five goals in their three matches, the expected goals allowed dropped to 4.4 xGA.
FINAL TAKE: It will be difficult for Switzerland to score against France — their expected goals of just 0.25 xG against Italy was telling. But I do not see Les Bleus score more than two goals in this match. Styles make fights — and neither of these teams is comfortable playing on their front foot. Expect a lower-scoring match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Switzerland (234169) and France (234170). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-27-21 |
Portugal +0.25 v. Belgium |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162) in their Round of 16 match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Portugal (W1-D1-L1) reached the Knockout State of this tournament with their 2-2 draw with France on Wednesday. Belgium (W3-D0-L0) completed their perfect Group Stage with a 2-0 victory against Finland last Monday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at the Estadio de La Cartuja in Seville, Spain.
REASONS TO TAKE PORTUGAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Portugal is ranked 5th in the world by FIFA with the ELO Ratings that rely on head-to-head metrics confirming that fifth place world standing. I agree — and I think this is the best roster A Selecao has had since the 2010 World Cup when I started seriously handicapping international soccer. Portugal has won the 2016 Euro and reached the Knockout Stage of the 2018 World Cup. The quality of the national team’s roster was validated when they won the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019. Portugal survived the Group of Death with an impressive draw against the reigning World Cup champions in France in a result they had to have. The opened this tournament with an impressive 3-0 win against Hungary who later played France and Germany very tough. I don’t issue too many demerits for the Portuguese’s 4-2 loss to the Germans in their second Group Stage match. Germany is very good and they needed the win after losing their opening match to France. A Selecao’s path to the Knockout Stage was pretty much assured after they grabbed the three points from Hungary. With Cristiano Ronaldo who has been the talisman for this team since that 2010 World Cup, Portugal has one of the best players in the world still with tons of high-pressure experience. The nation is a hot bed of talent — and they have produced a new generation of great players like Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix, Paris-Saint Germain’s Danilo, and Man City’s Ruben Dias. This roster is so loaded that Manchester United’s key midfielder Bruno Fernandes may not be in the starting XI — but he will be a super sub if veteran manager Fernando Santos needs scoring in the second half of the match. A Selecao also has some key veterans from the 2016 Euro run in Man City’s Bernardo Silva, Porto’s Pepe in back, and keeper Rui Patricio. Belgium is also loaded with talent amidst their golden generation — but they have yet to earn silverware and I have yet to see them triumph in a big match. They lost to France in the Semifinals of the 2018 World Cup after getting upset by an overmatched Wales team in the 2016 Euro. Eden Hazard has fitness issues — as it seems to have been the case for the last two years after transferring from Chelsea to Real Madrid. He has been a disappointment ever since (and the Blues never looked back after losing him after winning the Champions League last month). Kevin De Bruyne is sublime in the midfield — and he looks fit again — but their midfield group are not adept at forcing turnovers. The backline for the Red Devils is a vulnerability — their center backs are getting old and their wing backs are only average. Belgium looked great in the Group Stage — but Finland and Russia are weak opponents. Denmark looks better than I expected — but it is telling that the Red Devils lost the expected goals battle to the Danes playing without Cristian Eriksen by a 1.99-0.82 xG score. Portugal beat France in expected goals by a 2.36 to 1.81 xG margin.
FINAL TAKE: Portugal won the 2016 Euro despite only one victory in regulation time. I watched them over-and-over deploy defensive tactics to grind out low-scoring matches before Ronaldo would find a way to win — until the Finals when Ronaldo was injured but his teammates found a way to win. I think these defensive tactics will work against Belgium — they are the more experienced team in these matches. The Red Devils may win — but I suspect their route to victory is through extra-time or the final penalty kick tie-breaker and we will have covered at +0.25 goals (or pushed if you get a pick ‘em line) in regulation time. A Portugal upset win in regulation time is also very live for this one. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Match of the Year with Portugal (234161) plus the goal-line versus Belgium (234162). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-26-21 |
Austria v. Italy UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154) in the Round of 16 in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Austria (W2-D0-L1) clinched their involvement in the Knockout Stage with their 1-0 victory against Ukraine on Monday. Italy (W3-D0-L0) remained unscathed in the Euro 2020 with a 1-0 victory against Wales last Sunday. This match will be played on a neutral pitch at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy has a long tradition of strong defensive tactics — and after not qualifying for the World Cup in 2018, manager Roberto Mancini has stepped in to re-establish the identity of La Nazionale. The Azzurri entered this tournament with seven straight clean sheets — and they held all three of their Group Stage opponents scoreless. Italy has now not allowed a goal in over 1000 minutes in international play. They have one of the best keepers in the world in Gianluigi Donnarumma who is supported by a handful of talented defenders who star in Serie A. Donnarumma was only required to make two saves in the first three games. The Blues allowed only four goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches as well. But scoring was the question mark for this team — and I am not buying the hype of the attack from this team despite them scoring seven goals in the Group Stage. That offensive output may speak more to the lack of quality of Turkey and Switzerland against whom they scored six times. Forward Ciro Immobile only scorers 12 goals in 45 games for his domestic team in Serie A this season. Austria is a dangerous opponent. They have one of the most talented midfields in this tournament with RB Leipzig’s Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg Xaver Schlager. Manager Franco Foda also has a jack-of-all-trades talent in David Alba who played left-back for Bayern Munich but has played in the midfield or left wing for his national team. Alba was poached by Real Madrid earlier this year — he is the wild card talent in this match. Das Team will play conservatively with the hopes of scoring on the counter-attack. They ranked second in the Group Stage by forcing turnovers in 38% of their pressures on the press. Italy may be vulnerable here — their three Group Stage opponents did not top a turnover percentage over 28% with their press in the opening three matches. Throw out their 3-1 result against an overmatched North Macedonia. Austria did not score against the Netherlands — but they held the Dutch to just two goals despite playing on their home soil in Amsterdam. They held Ukraine to just 0.36 expected goals but only scored once in that match.
FINAL TAKE: I considered Italy underrated entering this tournament — but I suspect the pendulum has turned the other way with their 3-0 start with a +7 goal differential. The Azzurri benefited from an easy group — and they have not played an opponent with as much quality as these Austrians in perhaps three years when they played Portugal (unless Poland or the Netherlands are better competition?). The Italians also played all three of their Group Stage matches on home soil in Rome. I expect their defense to travel — but the attack will be exposed with La Nazionale likely playing more cautiously in this match. 25* Euro 2020 Round of 16 ABC-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Austria (234153) and Italy (234154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-21 |
Scotland v. Croatia |
Top |
1-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 54 m |
Show
|
|
06-22-21 |
Scotland v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). THE SITUATION: Scotland (W0-D1-L1) comes off a 0-0 draw with England last Friday. Croatia (W0-D1-L1) also settled for a draw with their 1-1 result with the Czech Republic on Friday. This match will be played in Scotland’s home soil at Hampden Park in Glasgow.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Scoring looked to be a challenge for this Scotland team lacking in a dynamic attacker up front. Southampton’s Che Adams is a poacher — but he needs a creative partner up top (like Danny Ings with Southampton) to generate the chances that he can then pick up on. In midfielders Ryan Fraser, John Fleck, and John McGinn, the Tartan Army has capable players but who are not dynamic playmakers. So it is not a surprise that Scotland has yet to score a goal. And while their expected goals are at 3.0 in their first two matches, underachieving the expected goals tally is not uncommon for teams that lack quality finishers. Manager Steve Clarke has his team smartly embracing defensive tactics given these limitations — and they have only conceded two goals in this tournament. Clarke has moved defensive back Andy Robertson up top to a wing to help generate offense, but using players out of position is not ideal. But this team is playing quality defense. They have allowed only two goals — and they held a loaded English side to just seven shots, with only one on target. Croatia has scored just once — and they have generated only 1.6 expected goals in their two matches. The doldrums in the attack were on displaying in their tune-up matches to begin the month as well as they only scored once in their two friendlies against Belgium and Armenia. The Chequered Ones reached the Finals of the 2018 World Cup — but forward Mario Mandzukic and midfielder Ivan Rakitic have since retired. Croatia still has talent in their midfield — led by Real Madrid’s Luka Modric — but they lack comparable talent up top. This team simply looks uninspired with four straight losses and just two wins in their last eleven matches across all competitions. Frankly, this is a veteran team that knows they peaked in 2018. After a year-long busy schedule to fit everything in during a pandemic that delayed the end of the 2019-20 campaigns, this group may simply be tired.
FINAL TAKE: Both these teams need the three points that will come with a victory. Because both sides are struggling to score goals, I suspect they will consider a 1-0 deficit to be devastating. Cautious play is likely — and if a team falls behind, expecting two goals to tie the game is probably overly optimistic. 25* Euro 2020 Group D Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Scotland (234125) and Croatia (234126). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-21 |
Ukraine v. Netherlands -1 |
|
2-3 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Netherlands (234026) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234025) in their opening match in Group C play. THE SITUATION: The Netherlands enter this tournament having last played on Sunday of last week where they defeated Georgia by a 3-0 score in a friendly. Ukraine last played on Monday in a 4-0 victory over Cyprus in a friendly.
REASONS TO TAKE THE NETHERLANDS MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Flying Dutchmen are missing some key players in Liverpool star defender Virgil Van Dijk, Manchester United midfielder Donny Van de Beek, and goalie Jasper Cillessen — but Holland is a soccer hotbed and this team is loaded with young talent. The Netherlands are playing in their first major international tournament since the 2014 World Cup. That golden generation reached the Semifinals of that 2014 World Cup after losing in the finals in 2010. This may the dawning of a new golden generation after (now previous) manager Ronald Koeman overhauled the roster over the last few years. The Oranje have exciting young talent like Barcelona 24-year-old Frenkie de Jong and Juventus defender Matthijs de Ligt. Koeman led the team to a second-place finish in the inaugural UEFA Nations League in 2019 where they lost the championship game to Portugal. They finished in second place to Germany in the Euro qualifiers — but they did defeat the Germans on their home field. They held their opponents to just 1.03 expected goals in those matches. Take away their two high-scoring matches against Germany — the Dutch have held their other most recent nine opponents to 5.33 combined expected goals. They also ranked third of all teams in the World Cup qualifiers by averaging 2.84 expected goals — and they generated a healthy 4.60 expected goals in their two matches against Germany in the Euro qualifiers. What this group may not have in major international tournament experience, they make up for in internal cohesion with plenty of experience playing with each other. Ukraine is overrated. They were near the bottom of all teams in total chances created in the Euro qualifiers. While they finished in first place in the Euro qualifiers, they only had a +0.9 net expected goals differential. They are unbeaten in their Euro and World Cup qualifiers approaching this event — but they lost the expected goals battle in five of those eleven matches. Perhaps their last-place finish in their group in the UEFA Nations League competition is closer to what this team is.
FINAL TAKE: Most of the Ukrainian roster is made up of players from e Ukrainian Premier League that is ranked 12th best in the world. Only 29% of the team plays outside that professional league. The Blue and Yellows lack major international tournament experience as well having not played in the 2018 World Cup. 10* Euro 2020 Ukraine-Netherlands ESPN Special with the Netherlands (234026) minus the goal-line versus Ukraine (234025). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-11-21 |
Italy v. Turkey UNDER 2.5 |
|
3-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
1 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002) in a Group A match in the Euro 2020. THE SITUATION: Italy begins their Euro 2020 after playing last Friday when they defeated the Czech Republic by a 4-0 score in a friendly at home. Turkey last played on Thursday of last week when they defeated Moldova by a 2-0 score in a friendly. This match will be played at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Italy is traditionally a defensive-oriented club. After a decline in quality which saw them fail to qualify for the 2018 World Cup in Russia after competing in 12 straight World Cups and Euros, the national team went to former Manchester City head coach Roberto Mancini to right the ship. The Azzuri are unbeaten in 27 matches under his guidance with seven straight clean sheets across all competitions. They only allowed four goals in their ten matches in the Euro qualifying matches. Playing at home, I expect the Italians to be a bit nervy in this opening match delayed a full year due to the COVID global pandemic. This team will have a strong defense led by the Juventus center back pairing of Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini. Cohesion from the familiarity of club teammates is one of the things I look for in these early international tournaments. Italy has one of the world’s rising stars as well in goaltender Gianluigi Donnarumma who stars for AC Milan. They also have a quality defensive midfielder in Jorginho who helped Chelsea just win the Champions League. The Blues will be without one of their key offensive pieces in midfielder Marco Verratti who has been training alone as he battles a knee injury. The Paris-Saint Germain star missed his last three matches for his professional club. Without Verratti, the Italian scoring burden will be further placed on Ciro Immobile at forward — but he has only 12 goals in 45 international competitions. Turkey can also play stout defense — they allowed only three goals in their ten Euro qualifying matches with eighth clean sheets. That was the fewest goals allowed in the entire qualifying stage. They did allow 19 goals in their next 11 matches across all competitions after completing the Euro qualification — but I suspect that was due to a change in tactics from their cagey manager Senol Gunes to see what he has with this group while putting them in different situations. Gunes was the skipper of the Turkish national team in 2002 when they finished in third place at the World Cup. He returns to coach the Crescent-Stars who have the youngest roster in this competition. But there is talent. Center back Caglar Soyuncu starts for Leicester City. Right back Zeki Celik started for Lille who won the Ligue 1 title. They have a good keep in Ugurcan Cakir. There are two other Lille players in the starting XI in Burak Yilmaz and Yusuf Yazici up top who will likely be instructed to be aggressive only on the counter-attack. Turkey’s top goal-scorer in the qualifying stage was Cenk Tosan — but the Everton forward not playing in this tournament due to a knee injury.
FINAL TAKE: Turkey would love a draw in this contest — so their tactics should be defensive in nature. Frankly, Italy would not be too distressed with a draw either against this Crescent-Stars team that is dangerous out of this group. Winnable matches remain against Wales and Switzerland — and the top two teams from the Group advance. Two defensive teams in the opening match? I do not expect more than two combined goals to be scored. 10* Euro 2020 Italy-Turkey ESPN O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Italy (234001) and Turkey (234002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-21 |
Chelsea v. Manchester City -0.5 |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-106 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201) in the Finals of the UEFA Champions League. THE SITUATION: Manchester City advances to the Champions League Final with their 4-1 aggregate score victory against Paris-Saint Germain that culminated on May 4th. Chelsea reached the Finals with their 3-1 aggregate score win against Porto in the Champions League Semifinals that concluded on May 5th. This match is being played on a neutral field in Porto, Portugal.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester City has the opportunity to coronate their dominance of European football with a victory in this match. They have already won the English Premier League title for the third time in the last four seasons by a dominant 14 point margin. But a European title is what has eluded this franchise under manager Pep Guardiola — and he has never won this trophy despite all his previous successes at Barcelona and Bayern Munich. This match means everything — and it is a long time coming for this squad to get the opportunity. Man City comes in ideal circumstances. They are healthy. They are in good form — their last match was an easy 5-0 win at home against Everton last Sunday. They are rested since Guardiola has had the luxury to rotate players to prepare for this showdown all month since they have had the EPL wrapped up for weeks. Chelsea has been a great story since Thomas Tuchel took over as their manager in late January — but cracks are finally showing with the weight of expectations hits this team. The Blues have lost three of their last four matches. For me, the canary in the coal mine was their 1-0 loss to Leicester City in the FA Cup Finals on May 15th. That is a match they should have won to win their first trophy under Tuchel. Instead, the team played tentative and looked overwhelmed by the moment. They avenged that loss three days later in an EPL match — but then in an important final EPL league match to secure placement in the Champions League next year, they laid an egg on the road against Aston Villa on Sunday in a 2-1 loss. This team is losing important recent matches. Chelsea is a team that is lacking in confidence right now. This is a very talented team — but their ascendance to the Champions League Final is perhaps premature to the realistic plan. After winning the EPL title in 2016-17 with a veteran team, the writing was on the wall that a youth movement would need to be embraced. That was the plan when former star player, Frank Lampard, was brought in as their manager last season. After an encouraging season amidst COVID where the younger players showed great promise, management brought in some high-priced transfers to add star power to the group. Kai Havertz and Timo Werner may have outstanding careers in the EPL — but their numbers were disappointing. They are still very young — and that is the rub about this team. While bursting with talent (albeit not necessarily more talented than Man City), this group is just inexperienced in big moments like this. Outside of the immaculate N’Gole Kante who has won EPL titles for Leicester City and Chelsea, as well as a World Cup for France, the Blues, are a roster filled with players that lack playing vital roles in championship runs either for their professional club or their national team. On the other hand, Man City is filled with players with tons of important matches during this four-year run under Guardiola.
FINAL TAKE: If there was any chance that Man City was taking this match lightly, those prospects are lone gone when considering that Chelsea has defeated them twice in the last six weeks. They played on April 17th in the FA Cup Semifinals — an important match — which the Blues won by a 1-0 score. They then played on May 8th in the EPL reverse fixture where Chelsea won again (and Man City did not go out of their way to not play important players) by a 1-0 score. Man City did win the expected goals battle in both those matches but just had bad luck with the final score. It will be very difficult for Chelsea to defeat this team three times in a row. Look for Man City to play one of their best matches in the Guardiola era to overwhelm a Blues side that may be happy to be here. 25* UEFA Champions League Match of the Year with the Manchester City (224202) minus the goal-line versus Chelsea (224201). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-21 |
Villarreal v. Manchester United -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
16 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401) in the Finals of the Europa League. THE SITUATION: Manchester United reached the Finals of the Europa League after a 3-2 loss at home to Roma on May 6th which secured their 8-5 aggregate goal victory. Real Villarreal reached the Finals after a 0-0 draw at Arsenal on May 6th gave them a 2-1 aggregate score win. This match will be played on a neutral field in Gdansk, Poland.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The challenge in handicapping this match is assessing how significant a loss it is for Man United to likely be without Harry Maguire. Their starting center back has been out most of the month with a knee injury that kept him out of training for this match. The Red Devils' backline defense has looked disheveled without the stabilizing influence that Maguire provides. Maguire is also third in the English Premier League for the most carry yards with the ball going towards the opposition goal — he plays an undervalued in their attack despite not generating a ton of goals or assists. His loss is significant (and I assume he will not make a miraculous recovery, although it sometimes happens in these championship matches). Eric Bailly will likely take his place — he is a solid defender but not the same talent with the ball. Man United has only won twice in their last six matches — but I this team has not had much at stake since reaching the finals of this competition. They have pretty much had second place in the EPL clinched for the last few weeks. Even without an important piece in Maguire, this remains a team that finished ahead of Liverpool and Chelsea in the English Premier League, one team that won the EPL last year, and another club that is playing Man City on Saturday the European Champions League title. The EPL was — by far — the strongest league in Europe this year, and here comes their second-place team. And after manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer did not play his starters on Sunday in their 2-1 victory at Wolverhampton, his starters are rested and ready. Villarreal comes off a 2-1 loss at Real Madrid on Saturday which had them finish in sixth place in La Liga this season. The Spanish top flight was down this season — Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid did not find much success in European competitions. Man United dominated a Sevilla side by a 4-0 aggregate score in the Round of 32 of this tournament that finished in fifth place, four points clear of Real Villarreal. Manager Unai Emery deploys a conservative approach — the Yellow Submarine are not likely to be aggressive in attacking Man United missing Maguire on their backline.
FINAL TAKE: Ultimately, Manchester United still has too much talent on the pitch for Real Villarreal. The Yellow Submarine may not have one of their best players either with midfielder Samuel Chukwueze having not played since getting injured in the second leg against Arsenal. There is a difference in class between these two teams — even without Maguire — that makes a victory at least one goal in regulation time the likely result. 25* Europa League Match of the Year with Manchester United (224402) minus the goal-line versus Real Villarreal (224401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-19-21 |
West Ham United v. West Bromwich Albion OVER 3 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
106 |
1 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W17-D8-L11) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Brighton on Saturday. West Brom (W5-D11-L20) looks to rebound from their heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Liverpool on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: West Ham has played themselves out of the Champions League qualification but they remain motivated to win this match since those three points would ensure their involvement with the Europa League next season. That would be a nice accomplishment (and a source of new revenue) for the Hammers. The West Ham defense has waned as of late — they have not had a clean sheet in their last nine matches in the English Premier League. Over their last ten matches, they are allowing 1.65 expected goals per match (xGA). But the Hammers offense has been reliable to close out the season. They have scored 25 goals in their last 13 matches while posting a healthy 1.62 expected goals per match (xG). Getting Michail Antonio healthy and back on the pitch has helped. Antonio leads the EPL in expected goal involvement per 90 minutes. He has scored 14 goals in his last 14 matches on the road. West Ham has scored eight goals in their last four road matches. West Brom thought they earned a draw with last year’s EPL champs before the Liverpool keeper strode up the pitch in a desperate move to add another body in front of the net in the final moments of their match. Allison was unguarded and nailed a perfect header to give the Reds the surprise last-second victory. The Baggies are a mess on defense — the 70 goals they have allowed is five more than the second-worst defensive team in the league. With West Ham already relegated to the Championship League next season, West Brom is not likely to play cautiously in front of home fans in their final home match of the season. They have surrendered goals in five straight games. But the Baggies have scored in each of their last three games at home while totaling five combined goals during that span.
FINAL TAKE: West Brom has seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last seven matches. West Ham has seen at least three combined goals scored in 61% of their matches this season — and they average 2.89 expected goals generated and allowed when the road. Both teams should score in this match in what could be a wild one. 25* English Premier League Midweek Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between West Ham United (200181) and West Bromwich Albion (200182). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-18-21 |
Leicester v. Chelsea -0.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Chelsea (200066) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200065). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W18-D10-L8) returns to English Premier League action this afternoon after losing to Arsenal last Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Leicester City (W20-D6-L10) comes off a 2-0 victory against Manchester United last Tuesday in their most recent EPL match.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Blues are in a big revenge spot after getting upset against this Leicester City side on Saturday in the finals of the FA Cup. We had Chelsea in that match — so that result was a major disappointment. Yet, there was nothing from that match that changes my tune on the Blues for this rematch. Chelsea outshot the Foxes by a 13-6 margin while holding them to only one shot on target. Unfortunately, that one shot turned out to be a goal for Youri Tieleman. Expected goals data is not available for FA Cup matches (or, I can’t find this data) — but from the numbers and the eye-test, the Blues out-played Leicester City. The biggest problem for them was — once again — a bad error by Jorginho opening up the scoring chance for their opponents. That is the second straight time that Jorginho made a crucial mistake as that is how Arsenal scored their goal last week. Jorginho will be benched for Mateo Kovacic who has been injured but was available over the weekend. These recent results should ensure an attentive locker room for manager Thomas Tuchel who has been an instant success at Stamford Bridge. Tuchel is taking a second team to the Champions League Final for the second straight season after leading Paris Saint-Germain to that championship game last summer. The Blues have only lost four times in 27 matches since Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard who was overmatched as the Chelsea skipper. I am not terribly surprised about the rise of this Blues team. They finished top-four in the English Premier League last summer with a nice core of young players. They then got out their checkbooks in the transfer window to bring in some of the best young European talents in the world in Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, and Hakim Ziyech. While perhaps each of those players has struggled at times adjusting to English Football during a pandemic (Havertz, in particular, overcame a tough bout with COVID that held back his conditioning in the fall). But the addition of these players gave Tuchel a roster simply loaded with talent. To his credit, Tuchel is a player’s coach who makes each player feel valuable with clear expectations of what he wants on the pitch. His implementation of a 3-4-2-1 formation made an immediate improvement in the defensive play of this team. Chelsea has 12 clean sheets in their 18 EPL matches under Tuchel. N’Golo Kante had a knock midweek for the match with Arsenal but he is expected to play this afternoon. Kante remains one of the best two or three holding midfielders in the world. What does the 2015-16 Leicester City EPL championship, the 2016-17 Chelsea EPL championship, and the France World Cup championship in 2018 all have in common? Kante. And the big advantage Tuchel has in this match is a rested and well-rotated roster of quality players. Leicester City is showing signs of fatigue. They lost eleven days ago at home to a Newcastle United side that barely escaped relegation. Losing sometimes happens on any given match day — but surrendering four goals to the Magpies with the Toon Army generated 3.49 xG is a bad sign. When the Foxes are at full strength, they are a dangerous team against any of the best teams in the EPL. But the continued absence of Harvey Barnes, James Justin, and Wes Morgan not only robs manager Brendan Rodgers of talent, but he has had to rely on his same starting XI match-after-match as they strive to not only win the FA Cup but also qualify for next year’s Championship League (and the money it brings in) by finishing in the top-four in the EPL table. The Foxes’ 2-1 win against Man United on Tuesday — but they benefited from facing a heavily-rotated Red Devils’ side that was playing the middle game of a brutal stretch of three matches in five days.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City is in an emotional letdown spot — while Chelsea will be motivated by revenge. The Blues need to win this match to stay one point ahead of Liverpool who is nipping at their tails to take the final qualifying spot for the Champions League next season. Chelsea just needs better luck to get the ball in the back of the opponnent’s net after being blanked in two straight matches. 25* English Premier League Tuesday Afternoon Special Feature with Chelsea (200066) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-21 |
Leicester v. Chelsea -0.5 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
2 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 12:15 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200402) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200401) in the finals of the FA Cup. THE SITUATION: Chelsea reached the FA Cup Final with their 1-0 victory against Manchester City on April 17th. Leicester City joined them a day later on April 18th with a 1-0 victory against Southampton. This match will be played on a neutral field at Wembley Stadium.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: If there was any chance that the Blues would be taking Leicester City lightly after recent victories against European powers Man City and Real Madrid last month. Chelsea comes off a disappointing 1-0 loss to Arsenal on Wednesday. A mistake by Jorginho gave the Gunners as easy a goal as they will score all year. The Blues dominated the expected goals battle by a 2.08-0.61 expected goals (xG) margin but they could not catch the break needed to level that score. That result should ensure an attentive locker room for manager Thomas Tuchel who has been an instant success at Stamford Bridge. Tuchel is taking a second team to the Champions League Final for the second straight season after leading Paris Saint-Germain to that championship game last summer. The Blues have only lost three times in 26 matches since Tuchel took over for Frank Lampard who was overmatched as the Chelsea skipper. I am not terribly surprised about the rise of this Blues team. They finished top-four in the English Premier League last summer with a nice core of young players. They then got out their checkbooks in the transfer window to bring in some of the best young European talents in the world in Timo Werner, Kai Havertz, and Hakim Ziyech. While perhaps each of those players has struggled at times adjusting to English Football during a pandemic (Havertz, in particular, overcame a tough bout with COVID that held back his conditioning in the fall). But the addition of these players gave Tuchel a roster simply loaded with talent. To his credit, Tuchel is a player’s coach who makes each player feel valuable with clear expectations of what he wants on the pitch. His implementation of a 3-4-2-1 formation made an immediate improvement in the defensive play of this team. Chelsea has 12 clean sheets in their 18 EPL matches under Tuchel. N’Golo Kante had a knock midweek for the match with Arsenal but he is expected to play this afternoon. Kante remains one of the best two or three holding midfielders in the world. What does the 2015-16 Leicester City EPL championship, the 2016-17 Chelsea EPL championship, and the France World Cup championship in 2018 all have in common? Kante. And the big advantage Tuchel has in this match is a rested and well-rotated roster of quality players. Leicester City is showing signs of fatigue. They lost eight days ago at home to a Newcastle United side that barely escaped relegation. Losing sometimes happens on any given match day — but surrendering four goals to the Magpies with the Toon Army generated 3.49 xG is a bad sign. When the Foxes are at full strength, they are a dangerous team against any of the best teams in the EPL. But the continued absence of Harvey Barnes, James Justin, and Wes Morgan not only robs manager Brendan Rodgers of talent, but he has had to rely on his same starting XI match-after-match as they strive to not only win the FA Cup but also qualify for next year’s Championship League (and the money it brings in) by finishing in the top-four in the EPL table. The Foxes come off a 2-1 win against Man United on Tuesday — but they benefited from facing a heavily-rotated Red Devils’ side that was playing the middle game of a brutal stretch of three matches in five days.
FINAL TAKE: The few times that Chelsea has lost this season, it was against West Brom, Porto, and Arsenal that were able to play physical to get the Blues out of their possession-based rhythm. Even if this was Leicester City’s style (it’s not), they lack the fitness to execute that approach in the final two weeks of a condensed schedule this season given the pandemic. Jamie Vardy is exhausted and not in form. The Foxes are tired. Chelsea is relatively rested, in rhythm — and angry after the loss midweek. And the Blues have the talent edge. 25* FA Cup Match of the Year with Chelsea (200402) minus the goal-line versus Leicester City (200401). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-15-21 |
Leicester v. Chelsea UNDER 2.5 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 35 m |
Show
|
FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SATURDAY, 5/15:
My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Saturday afternoon soccer action is with Under the Total in the FA Cups Finals between Leicester City and Chelsea. These two teams last played on January 19th with the Foxes winning by a 2-0 score. That was the last English Premier League match under manager Frank Lampard for the Blues who was sacked a few days later. Chelsea has seen seven of their last nine matches finish with one of the two teams blanking under Thomas Tuchel. The Blues could not score on Wednesday in their 1-0 loss to Arsenal. Leicester City comes off a 2-1 win against Man United on Tuesday but don’t read too much into that result with the Red Devils playing a heavily-rotated side. Both Semifinals matches in the FA Cup at Wembley Stadium finished with 1-0 scores with Leicester City defeating Southampton and Chelsea beating Man City. Expect another cagey, low-scoring match in this championship match. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.
Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports begins Saturday on a 16 of 26 (62%) All-Sports run over the last nine days! Frank is on an 8 of 12 (67%) Soccer run this month — and he furthers his 13 of 19 (68%) Soccer Game of the Year/Month mark with his 25* FA Cup Match of the Year for the Leicester City-Chelsea finals showdown at Wembley Stadium on ESPN+ at 12:15 PM ET! DON’T MISS OUT!
|
05-13-21 |
Liverpool v. Manchester United +0.25 |
Top |
4-2 |
Loss |
-112 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester United (200018) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200017). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W20-D10-L5) looks to rebound from a 2-1 loss at home to Leicester City on Tuesday. Liverpool (W16-D9-L9) looks to build off their 2-0 victory against Southampton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN UNITED PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is the third game in five days for Man United who had to make up a postponed game due to their Europa League responsibilities — and then this intended match from a week and a half ago was postponed given fan protests over the European Super League at Old Trafford. Manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer went with a young starting XI on Tuesday — he made ten changes to his normal lineup. This is the match that the Red Devils want to win — and in comes the A-Team after many of the key players either did not play or came on as late substitutes. Throwout Tuesday’s result which was Man United’s just second loss in their last 16 matches in the English Premier League. It was their first loss in the English top-flight since January 27th. Since the start of 2021, the Red Devils are second in the EPL with an average of 1.71 expected goals (xG) per match — and they are conceding just 0.87 expected goals (xGA). They have scored at least two goals in five of their last seven home matches at Old Trafford. They have won five of their last seven at home as well, even after Tuesday, with 22 goals scored and just eight conceded in those contests. Liverpool is fighting for their Championship League lives as they are currently in sixth place — still within striking distance after their win against Southampton. But that was just their first win in their last four matches across all competitions. It has been a lost season for manager Jurgen Klopp with his team ravaged by injuries — especially at center back where they have lost their top three players on their depth chart. The Reds are also observing down seasons from both Sadio Mane and Roberto Firminho which is leaving Mohamed Salah without scoring partners. Liverpool has looked listless in recent 1-1 draws against Leeds United and Newcastle United before beating the Saints.
FINAL TAKE: Man United is unbeaten at home in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions against Liverpool. They have fielded their best starting XI for this match, outside of not having Harry Maguire who got injured against the Foxes. A tough loss, but Eric Bailly is solid as a replacement on defense. Liverpool has not won at Old Trafford since 2013-14. These two teams settled for a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture on January 17th — and Man United won the last meeting in the FA Cup fourth round on January 24th by a 3-2 score at Old Trafford. 25* EPL Thursday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with Manchester United (200018) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200017). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-11-21 |
Crystal Palace +0.5 v. Southampton |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-106 |
1 h 22 m |
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At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Crystal Palace (200001) plus the goal-line versus Southampton (200002). THE SITUATION: Crystal Palace (W11-D8-L15) snapped a three-game losing streak with their 2-0 victory at Sheffield United on Saturday. Southampton (W10-D7-L17) lost their 13th match in the English Premier League in their last 17 contests with their 2-0 loss at Liverpool on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE CRYSTAL PALACE PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Both of these teams are only playing for pride after the three teams destined for relegation to the Championship League were ensured with Fulham’s loss to Burnley yesterday. These May matches in the EPL are the games where some of these teams in no-man’s land hit the proverbial “beach” thinking about their summer plans rather than the matters at hand. Southampton seems to already be in beach mode. They only have one draw in their last five matches outside four setbacks. They have lost the expected goals (xG) battle in four straight matches. They have allowed at least two goals in six o of their last seven EPL matches. They are bottom-three in the league over their last six contests in Big Chances allowed and expected goals allowed (xGA). Injuries have riddled this team with the biggest loss being their top scorer, Danny Ings, who is dealing with a thigh muscle sprain. The tactics of manager Ralph Hassenhutl have left the healthy players on his roster exhausted. The aggressive pressing style has not been a good fit in the condensed schedule this season — and that has been compounded by the Saints staying alive in the FA Cup through last month. Liverpool has struggled with their endurance as well — and Man City’s success this season comes in large part from Pep Guardiola changing his tactics away from pressing all the time. Southampton is a tired team — and the record demonstrates this. Since their upset win against Liverpool on January 16th, the Saints have won only two of their 17 league matches with 13 losses. And in their last seven matches at home, they have only won once. Crystal Palace has little to play for as well — but they are a counter-attacking team that is in better fitness at this point of the season. They dominated Sheffield United over the weekend with 2.56 xG on offense. They were on a three-game losing streak — but they faced three of the top four teams in the EPL table in Chelsea, Leicester City, and Man City. The Eagles are a much better team with Wilfried Zaha healthy and on the pitch as he is now as the team’s top-scoring threat. Zaha has been injured for much of the season. Crystal Palace has scored in five straight EPL matches on the road — and they have a win and a draw in their last three road league contests.
FINAL TAKE: The Eagles counter-attack should get scoring opportunities against the Southampton press. They won the reverse fixture on the opening weekend of the season on September 12th by a 1-0 score while also winning the xG battle, 1.61-1.27, in a match where the Saints’ had a healthy Danny Ings. The fatigue issue for Southampton has contributed to them being winless in their last ten midweek matches played on a Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday. 25* English Premier League Tuesday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with the Crystal Palace (200001) plus the goal-line versus Southampton (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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