07-11-20 |
Manchester City v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 3 |
Top |
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W22-D3-L9) looks to build off a 5-0 win over Newcastle United on Wednesday. Brighton (W8-D12-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at home to Liverpool on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City peppered the Magpies with 23 shots with nine of them on target. The Cityzens have scored 18 goals in their six EPL matches in Project Restart — and they have scored 20 goals in their last seven contests overall since the return including their 2-0 victory over that Newcastle team in the FA Cup two weeks ago. Man City is averaging 2.60 expected goals (xG) this season which is their highest mark in the last five seasons. We are not sure who will get the start in this match with manager Pep Guardiola keeping an eye towards the FA Cup Semifinals versus Arsenal along with the second-leg of their Round of Sixteen Champions League match with Real Madrid. But Guardiola has an abundance of riches to choose from given the depth of the winner of the last two EPL seasons. Raheem Sterling should be in the starting XI after not starting against the Magpies. And even if mainstays like Kevin DuBruyne do not get the start this afternoon, there is a good chance he will play for at least 20 minutes in this match to maintain his fitness. Man City has scored 69 goals in their last 24 matches against non-Big Six sides — and they have 31 goals in their twelve road matches against non-Big Six opponents. But the Cityzens’ have been leaky on defense this season especially playing on the road where they have allowed 22 goals in seventeen games away from the Etihad. Brighton had entered last week’s match with the newly crowned EPL champions having played pretty stingy defense — but they allowed Liverpool to attempt 20 shots with eight of them on target. The Reds generated 2.68 expected goals (xG) in that match. But manager Graham Potter can take comfort in their ability to generate 2.88 xG against the stout Liverpool defense in that match. The Seagulls have allowed 22 goals this season in their last eleven matches against Power Six sides. They have played Liverpool, Man United, and Arsenal in their last three home matches which have seen 10 combined goals scored in those contests including allowing three goals each to the Reds and Red Devils.
FINAL TAKE: Man City dominated the reverse fixture between these two teams with a 4-0 win on August 31st. The Cityzens have seen 3.60 combined xG in their matches this season with that mark rising to a combined 3.85 xG in their last five contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-10-20 |
Granada v. Real Sociedad UNDER 2.5 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-119 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Granada (201837) and Real Sociedad (201838). THE SITUATION: Granada (W13-D8-L13) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw versus Valencia on Saturday. Real Sociedad (W15-D6-L13) also comes off a draw when they played Levante on the road to a 1-1 score on Monday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Granada suffered some tough luck to settle for the one point on Saturday as they limited Valencia to just 0.82 expected goals (xG). El Grana has surrendered just eight goals in their seven matches since the return to play. They go back on the road where they have surrendered 26 goals in seventeen road matches — but the deeper metrics also suggest they have been unfortunate to see that many goals as their expected goals allowed (xGA) drops to 22.26. Granada has scored 21 goals in those seventeen road contests — but they have managed just seven goals in their eight matches against teams from the top half of the league. El Grana has also scored only nine goals in their seven matches in Project Restart. Real Sociedad has only scored five goals in their last six contests. La Real has also seen some bad luck relating to goals allowed. They have allowed 43 goals this season — but their xGA drops to 39.10. Furthermore, while Real Sociedad has held their opponents to just 17 goals in their seventeen home matches, their xGA at home in those contests falls to 14.28 which is the 3rd best mark in La Liga.
FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-1 score on November 3rd. Expect a lower-scoring game in this rematch. 10* La Liga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Granada (201837) and Real Sociedad (201838). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-08-20 |
Liverpool v. Brighton & Hove Albion UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
3-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
4 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W29-D2-L2) enters this match as champions of the 2019-20 Premier League coming off a 2-0 win over Aston Villa on Sunday. Brighton and Hove Albion (W8-D12-L13) look to build off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool was fortunate to score against the Villans in what was a listless performance that remained scoreless after the 70th minute before they scored two late goals. The Reds registered a small 0.82 expected goal mark (xG) against the suspect Aston Villa defense in that match. Liverpool have scored just six times in their four matches since Project Restart. Mo Salah has registered just one Big Chance representing a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate since the return of play. He may not even get the start this afternoon with manager Jurgen Klopp likely to rotate out some of his key players. Roberto Firminho did not start on Sunday so while he is likely to take the pitch again for this match, it is likely that either Salah or Sadio Mane will get the afternoon off with a higher-profile match against Arsenal on deck next week. The Reds lose some of their offensive cohesion when their big three are not together on the pitch. Klopp looks likely to also rest defenseman Andrew Robertson who is an important cog in their offensive attack. Liverpool has struggled to score goals when playing away from Anfield. They have failed to score in their last five road games across all competitions spanning an incredible seven hours and 42 minutes. But the Reds’ defense remains consistent — they have allowed only 13 goals in their sixteen road games in the EPL. Furthermore, Liverpool has only allowed 13 goals in their twenty-five league games against non-Big Six sides — and they have surrendered just 7 goals in their twelve road games against non-Big Six opponents. Brighton has scored only three goals in their four matches since the return to action while averaging just 0.85 xG. But the defensive play for manager Graham Potter’s side has been outstanding as they have allowed just four goals in these four matches while holding these foes to just 0.75 xGA. The Seagulls have allowed just one Big Chance in their four matches since the return which includes facing some formidable offensive clubs in Manchester United, Arsenal, and Leicester City. They have three clean sheets in their last five matches. Unfortunately for Potter, they have also been shutout in four of their last eight matches. They return home where they have scored only 19 goals — but they have surrendered just 19 goals. Furthermore, in their four opportunities to host a Big Six side, the Seagulls have scored just 6 goals while allowing only 5 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 30th. The Reds have not scored more than two goals when playing on the road in their last six road games going back to December 26th. Brighton has seen seven of their last eight home matches go Under 2.5. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Liverpool (200045) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-08-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.25 v. Sheffield United |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-116 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200033) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200034). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W13-D13-L7) saw their three-game winning streak snapped last Saturday with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal. Sheffield United (W12-D12-L9) is unbeaten in their last two matches on Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Burnley.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sheffield United faces a challenging situation with this being their fourth game in the last eleven days. Because of needing to catch up on a delayed league match prior to the stoppage of play along being still alive in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup, the Blades have played two more matches than the Wolves entering this contest — so fatigue is a real concern here. As a promoted side this season, Sheffield United simply lacks the depth of some of the other traditional EPL powers. As it is, the Blades are dealing with a number of injuries in their midfield with John Lundstram, John Fleck, and Luke Freeman all out for this match. Cracks are showing with this Sheffield United defense as they have allowed 48 scoring chances since the restart in league play while surrounding 2.5 Big Chances representing scoring opportunities of at least a 35% success rate. Regression was perhaps inevitable for manager Chris Wilder’s team on defense as they may be allowing only 1.00 goals-per-game but that numbers rise to a 1.44 expected goals allowed (xGA) mark. Furthermore, the Blades have allowed just 14 goals at home at Bramall Lane at home, their xGA at home rises to a 19.07 mark. Wolverhampton had shutout seven of their last eight opponents before losing to the Gunners on Saturday. The Wolves play consistently sound defense for manager Nuno Espirito Santo — and they are even better when they have Willy Boly healthy and paired with Roman Saiss as they will in this match. Wolverhampton has been consistent on the road where they hold their opponents to just 1.06 goals-per-game while averaging 1.44 goals-per-game. They are 3rd in the league with 27 points on the road — and they are 2nd in the EPL in expected points (xPTS).
FINAL TAKE: These two teams settled for a 1-1 drawback on December 1st back when Sheffield United was healthier and playing much better on the defensive end of the pitch. With the Blades dealing with knocks and a challenging makeup schedule, they are at a disadvantage when hosting (without fans) a Wolves team playing with one extra day of rest and two fewer matches under their belts since the return. 10* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Wolverhampton (200033) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-07-20 |
Leicester v. Arsenal UNDER 2.5 |
|
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200029) and Arsenal (200030). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W17-D7-L9) snapped a three-match winless straight on Saturday with a 3-0 victory over Crystal Palace. Arsenal (W12-D13-L8) has won four straight games across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolverhampton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal has registered three straight clean sheets in EPL play with their upset win over the Wolves. The Gunners have adjusted tactics under new manager Mikel Arteta to become more of a defensive-oriented side who finds their offense from the counter-attack. Over their last four matches, they are allowing only 0.71 expected goals (xGA) per game while giving up just one Big Chance of a scoring opportunity with at least a 35% success rate. Arteta inherited a team from manager Unai Emery who was allowing 1.61 Big Chances per game so it is understandable why Arteta shifted tactics. This has had an impact on the Arsenal attack as they have averaged only 1.36 expected goals (xG) under his leadership. The Gunners have scored only 49 goals this season which is far below the 73 goals they scored last season. And while they have 30 goals scored at home at the Emirates in their sixteen matches in league play, that number plummets to just a 23.89 xG amount. Arsenal has scored 12 combined goals in their last four home games but all those opponents were bottom of the table teams. In their six matches this season against one of the top four teams currently in the EPL table, they have managed only a combined 4.44 expected goals — but they have held those six opponents to just 3.58 xGA combined. Leicester City had managed to score only two goals in their three matches since the return before Jamie Vardy scored twice in the final 17 minutes for that 3-0 win over the Eagles. I suspect that scoring display had more to do with good fortune while facing a desperate Crystal Palace team trying to even the score at 1-1 late in that match. Vardy has not been himself in 2020 after enjoying a torrid stretch late in the fall. Since New Year’s Day, the Foxes are generating only 1.44 xG in their five league matches on the road. They have scored only three goals in those five road games. But they have also held their five home hosts to just 1.28 xGA per match.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back on November 9th. But the Foxes have scored only seven more goals in their eight other matches against Big Six sides. Leicester City has only allowed four goals since the return with two clean sheets in those four matches. Expect a lower-scoring match. 10* EPL Tuesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Leicester City (200029) and Arsenal (200030). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-06-20 |
Everton +0.5 v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
3 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). THE SITUATION: Everton (W12-D8-L12) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-1 win over Leicester City last Wednesday. Tottenham (W12-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: That was a devastating psychological loss for Tottenham who was playing with much more rest than the promoted Blades who had played in two matches since the Spurs’ last contest. And while Tottenham complained about a controversial VAR call that took a Harry Kane goal off the board late in the first half, they were not dealt a bad hand according to the deeper metrics as they lost the expected goals battle by a 1.46-1.08 xG margin. New manager Jose Mourinho expressed his displeasure with his team’s effort after the match because Mourinho can never fail — he can only be failed (in his world). I don’t that is going to sit well with a veteran locker room whose lack of interest already got Mauricio Pochettino fired earlier in the season. Mourinho wears his players thin — and that process may already be underway in these uniquely challenging circumstances with the Spurs’ players having little at stake. Frankly, the problems of this team are systemic of an organization not willing to get out their wallets to compete with the other Big Six franchises. Harry Kane has lost a step or two after two injury-riddled campaigns — and if he is no longer an all-world striker, this team’s quality quickly plummets. Mourinho changed Pochettino’s tactics from a pressing, possession team to a counter-attacking squad. While that makes the Spurs dangerous against elite possession sides like Liverpool and Man City, it can leave them flummoxed against other counter-attacking sides like Sheffield United. Tottenham was simply bereft of scoring ideas against the Blades when advancing the ball. Son-Heung-Min has been relegated to an afterthought playing wide on the wing. Dele Alli was perhaps the player who most benefited from Mourinho’s appointment — but he was suspended last week and remains a doubt this week with a hamstring injury. The sugar-high from Mourinho’s appointment has lone gone with the Spurs’ short-term improvement in play now overwhelmed by consistently troubling numbers. Tottenham’s defense is atrocious — they have the 5th most expected goals allowed (xGA) in the EPL since Mourinho took over in November with those numbers worsening to being 3rd worth in the league since the start of 2020. They also have the league’s worst xGA rate when playing at home in this calendar year. The Spurs are allowing 1.85 xGA under Mourinho which is not being neutralized by their offensive attack since they have produced only a 1.58 xG during that span with the manager which is only 8th best in the EPL. Tottenham under Mourinho is 11th in the EPL in net expected goal differential (xGD) and they are 13th in expected points (xPTS). I made the argument last week that those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt given the bevy of injuries that this team has faced all season. In retrospect, I should not have read too much into their recent victory over a relegation-threatened West Ham while appreciating that their 1-1 draw with Man United was both fortunate and a by-product of their counter-attacking tactics meshing well with the Red Devils’ forward aggressiveness. And, of course, any hopes that a healthy Spurs side will begin outperforming their metrics assume a team that is still playing hard for their manager. Returning home to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium would normally be seen a positive for this team — but a stadium without fans is not what this group needs right now. Furthermore, the Spurs are averaging only 1.48 xG at home under Mourinho while seeing their opponents produce a 1.63 xG in those games. Everton has won two of three matches in Project Restart with their lone blemish being a nil-nil draw with Liverpool where they won the xG battle. The Toffees have played much better since Carlo Ancelotti was appointed as the replacement of manager Marco Silva. In fact, Everton’s W7-D4-L3 record since his appointment is 4th best in the EPL. The Toffees have lost only three times under Ancelotti to Man City, Chelsea, and Arsenal (in a game where the xG says they should have won). They are 4th best in the EPL over that span with a 1.93 xG on offense — and they have improved on defense with a 1.26 xGA which is an improvement over a 1.34 xGA under Silva. But Everton’s defense has particularly elevated in quality recently — they are allowing only 1.25 Big Chances (shots with a success rate of at least 35%) since match week 25 and they have surrendered just one goal in three matches since the return. The Toffees go back on the road where they have only 15 points — but the xG numbers indicate they are the second-most underachieving team in the league when playing away from home. Under Ancelotti, Everton has been the 3rd best road team in terms of expected goals with 1.93-1.34 xG marks — and they have been the most efficient team on the road in the EPL since Christmas.
FINAL TAKE: Everton’s 44 points puts them in 11th place and just one point behind Tottenham. But the metrics tell a different story with the Toffees rising to 7th best in the league in xPTS while the Spurs drop to 13th. Everton has a dominant +0.56 net expected points differential edge for Tottenham over the season — even before accounting for recent form. The Toffees still have a potential Europa League qualification alive as well with them being just four points behind Sheffield United in 7th place and the likely final qualifying spot. 25* EPL Monday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Everton (200017) plus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-20 |
Barcelona FC v. Villarreal +0.75 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-106 |
5 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). THE SITUATION: Real Villarreal (W16-D6-L11) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win at Real Betis on Wednesday. Barcelona (W21-D7-L5) has settled for draws in three of their last four matches after a 2-2 draw at home with Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL VILLARREAL PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It has been a disastrous return to play for the reigning La Liga champions who have lost their grip on first place. Barcelona opened Project Restart last month with a two-point lead up on Real Madrid — but after Los Blancos late 1-0 victory over Athletico Bilbao this morning, Barca find themselves seven points behind their arch-rivals. The Blaugranas must win out their remaining five matches while hoping that Real Madrid drops points somewhere — without the benefit of another head-to-head match. Frankly, the writing is on the wall for this team with rumors of internal dissension with new manager Quique Setien who came on in January along with talk that Lionel Messi may be ready to jump ship when his contract expires next season. Antoine Griezmann is mired in a slump which has probably impacted Messi as he is enduring his worst statistical season in terms of efficiency in five seasons. Barcelona has systemic problems right now. They are too reliant on Messi to bail them out of trouble. They have been too slow in building up play when possessing the ball. They have been vulnerable against counter-attacks. And there have been too many issues with their backline that Setien inherited but has been unable to fix. Barca is just 6th in La Liga in fewest goals allowed which is unfamiliar territory for them. This team has not been the victims of bad luck as they lost the expected goals (xG) with Atletico Madrid while holding narrow edges with the xG numbers in their other two matches. The vulnerabilities of the Catalan Giants most often demonstrate themselves when playing on the road against the top teams in the league. Barcelona has won only two of their last eight matches on the road versus a top-ten La Liga opponent while losing three of these matches outright. They are also getting beaten in the xG numbers by a 1.22-0.90 xG margin in those eight road matches. Since Setien has taken over, they are generating 1.55 xG on the road while seeing their home hosts produce a 1.27 xG mark. Those are good numbers but not nearly the elite standard that Barca has set over the last five seasons where they have won four league titles. Real Villarreal was limping before the stoppage of play with three straight losses — but they have returned with a renewed focus by going unbeaten in their six matches with five victories. The Yellow Submarines have only allowed two goals in these six matches while producing five clean sheets. A switch to a 4-4-2 formation by manager Javier Calleja has helped trigger these outstanding defensive numbers by adding a fourth defender in their backline. Real Villarreal is holding their opponents to just 0.92 xG since the switch to a 4-4-2 while their quality in attack up top is still producing 2.06 xG in those games. The Yellow Submarines are also getting these good results against the best that La Liga has to offer. Real Villarreal has a 2-2 draw with Real Madrid along with a nil-nil result with Atletico Madrid and a 2-2 draw with Sevilla (the other teams in the top four of the table) along with a 1-0 win over Getafe. They now find themselves three points out of 4th place with serious Champions League aspirations in the fall. Real Villarreal is one of the mainstays in this league with top-six finishes from 2013 through 2018 before a disappointing 14th place finish last year. They have scored in 21 of their last 22 league matches — and they have also scored in 29 of their last 31 home games against La Liga competition. The Yellow Submarines are producing a healthy 2.16 xG in their sixteen home matches this season while holding their guests to just 1.46 xG.
FINAL TAKE: Real Villarreal will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss to Barcelona at Camp Nou back on September 24th. These are much different less than ten months later with Ernesto Valverde no longer the skipper for Barca and the Yellow Submarines playing their best soccer in years. These two teams played to a 4-4 draw when playing at Real Villarreal’s Estadio de la Ceramica last year — so the home dog will be confident that they can pull the upset this time around. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports Match of the Month with Real Villarreal (201826) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201825). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-20 |
Manchester City v. Southampton OVER 3 |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-115 |
14 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W21-D3-L8) enters this match coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Liverpool on Thursday. Southampton (W12-D4-L16) comes off a 3-1 win at Watford last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Manchester City may have relinquished their two-season run as English Premier League champions — but they have been an offensive juggernaut and remain motivated to maintain their form with the FA Cup and Champions League titles still at stake later this summer. The Cityzens peppered a strong Liverpool defense with 14 shots while posting an expected goal mark (xG) of 2.99 which suggests that their four goals were not too much of an overachievement against the new champions of the EPL. Man City has scored 13 goals in their four EPL matches since the return to play while posting at least a 2.60 xG mark in three of those games. They also have scored 15 goals in their five overall matches since the return which includes their victory in the FA Cup Quarterfinals last weekend. The Cityzens are averaging a robust 2.56 xG per match in the EPL this season which is their highest mark over the last five seasons. They also lead the league with the most Big Chances of scoring opportunities with an expected success rate of at least 35% since the return to play. Man City averages a robust 3.1 xG in league play this season against opponents that are not in the top seven in the EPL table. But the Cityzens defense is what has held them back from a three-peat in the EPL this year. They entered this match week having allowed the most Big Chances since the return to action. Manager Pep Guardiola’s pressing system creates many scoring opportunities — but it leaves them vulnerable to great scoring chances with counter-attacks. Man City is allowing their home hosts to average 1.42 xGA in league play this year. But they are also generating 2.63 xG in their sixteen road matches in the EPL. The Cityzens have seen 83 combined goals scored in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides for a 3.77 combined goal score total — and they have seen 43 combined goals scored in their 11 road matches in EPL action for a 3.91 combined goal mark. Southampton got two goals from forward Danny Ings in their victory over Watford last Sunday. Ings is challenging for the Golden Boot Award with 18 goals in the EPL this season. He has been galvanized by first-year manager Ralph Hasenhuttl’s commitment to an aggressive high-press which increases scoring opportunities for the Saints. Southampton has scored six goals in their three matches since the return — and this philosophy has worked with them reaching the 40 point threshold in the standings while being safe from relegation by 13 points. But these tactics do make them vulnerable on defense — they have allowed 33 goals at home with an 1.78 goals-against average which is the higher home mark in the EPL. Even after throwing out the Leicester City 9-0 victory at St. Mary’s in the fall as an outlier, the Saints are surrendering 1.50 goals per game at home in the EPL this season. Furthermore, in their five home matches against traditional Big Six opponents (which does not include Leicester City), Southampton has seen 16 combined goals scored.
FINAL TAKE: Manchester City won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Southampton is seeing an average of 2.93 xG in their matches this season with 62% of their games finishing Over 2.5 goals. Man City is seeing 3.56 xG combined goal marks in their league matches this season — and that number has increased to a 3.74 xG combined goal mark in their last four contests. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200013) and Southampton (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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07-05-20 |
Aston Villa v. Liverpool OVER 3 |
|
0-2 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). THE SITUATION: Aston Villa (W7-D6-L9) has lost six of their last eight matches after their 1-0 loss at home to Wolverhampton last Saturday. Liverpool (W28-D2-L2) looks to rebound from their 4-0 loss at Manchester City on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Reds lacked intensity in their showdown with the Cityzens in their first match as reigning English Premier League champions. Liverpool should respond with more focus in their attack this afternoon. They return home where they have won all sixteen of their matches while scoring 44 goals. They also have averaged 2.62 goals-per-game in their thirteen home games against teams outside the Top-Six traditional powers. But with the Reds having nothing else to play for with them being eliminated from the FA Cup and Champions League competitions, don’t be surprised if the loss of vigor on defense that they displayed against Man City continues. Liverpool has lost five of their last nine matches across all competitions going back to before the stoppage of play — and that as many losses as they have experienced in their previous 76 matches combined! The Reds had been playing at an epic level for over a year — they did win the European Champions League last season. The decline seems to have begun. Aston Villa has allowed 14 goals in their last eight matches. The Villans have surrendered 60 goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL — and their expected goals allowed (xGA) worsens at a 64.21 mark which is the worst in the league. Aston Villa has also allowed 33 goals on the road which is last in the league. The Villans have only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play — but those results should not be overstated. They opened by facing a slumping Sheffield United team that is defensive-oriented before catching a rusty Chelsea in their first match in Project Restart. They then played an offensively-challenged Newcastle side before playing the counter-attacking Wolves last week. Their sketchy defense should be exposed by the new kings of the league.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 2nd. Liverpool has seen at least three combined goals scored in four straight home matches with at least four goals scored in three of those contests. 10* EPL Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Aston Villa (200009) and Liverpool (200010). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-20 |
Watford v. Chelsea -1 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). THE SITUATION: Chelsea (W16-D6-L10) looks to rebound from a disappointing 3-2 upset loss at West Ham on Wednesday. Watford (W6-D10-L16) comes off a 3-1 loss at home to Southampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE CHELSEA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Chelsea was vulnerable to an emotional letdown after pulling off a dramatic 2-1 victory over Man City (which eliminated the two-time defending EPL champions from repeating this season) and then following that up with a 1-0 victory at Leicester City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup last Sunday. Sure enough, this young Blues team traveled on the road to face a counter-attacking Hammers team desperate for a victory as they fight to avoid relegation. Chelsea has still looked very good since the return to play last month with three wins in four matches. They remain very motivated to play well as they are in a dog fight to qualify for one of the four spots for next year’s Champions League. The Blues begin match week 33 in 4th place in the EPL table two points ahead of Manchester United and Wolverhampton. The underlying metrics love this team — while Chelsea sits in 4th place with 54 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 60.38 is 3rd best in the EPL. Those numbers would likely be even better since there without an injured Christian Pulisic for much of the season. The American appears to be the real deal — he leads the EPL in touches inside the box since the return to play last month. The Blues return home to Stamford Bridge where they are W8-D3-L5 this season. They have scored only 24 goals at home this year but the metrics suggest they have been unfortunate in that regard with an expected goals mark (xG) of 37.43. Chelsea’s xPTS at home jump to 37 with them averaging 2.34 xG and allowing just 0.74 xGA — and that +1.60 xG differential is the 2nd best home mark in the EPL this season. With Pulisic healthy and the Blues playing in a 4-3-3 formation that Frank Lampard shifted to midseason (which gets defender Marco Alonso on the pitch who is an effective player in their attack), Chelsea is one of the top teams in the league. Watford had been playing well after manager Javi Garcia was sacked for Nigel Pearson in early December. The Hornets responded by going W4-D2-L1 in their first eight matches under Pearson before things began to slide with them going W1-D1-L4 in their final six matches before the stoppage of play. Since the return, Watford is just W0-D1-L2 while scoring just two goals (with one of those goals being an own-goal by Southampton last Sunday). The Hornets are just listless on offense right now with little energy. Ismaila Carr displayed a glimpse of brilliance when Pearson was appointed but he has been mostly absent since the return to action. Watford simply may not be motivated to play out the string of matches after being quarantined for months — and they do not seem to be overly concerned about their impending relegation with them currently in 17th place by just one point over Bournemouth and Aston Villa. The Hornets have won only one match over their last ten matches while averaging just 1.22 xG. Now they go back on the road where they are W2-D4-L10 in their sixteen EPL matches while averaging just 1.00 xG in those matches. Watford has won only once in their last eight road league matches. The Hornets are not equipped to grind out a lower-scoring match either as they have allowed the 6th most goals in the league this year — and they are tied for allowing the 5th most goals when playing on the road. They have only one clean sheet in their last ten matches.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on November 2nd by a 2-1 score. With the Hornets out-of-form and with their motivation in question, an angry Blues team should bounce-back with a strong effort. 25* English Premier League NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Chelsea (200198) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200197). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-20 |
Bayern Munich -1.5 v. Bayer Leverkusen |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 28 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich reached the finals of the German Cup with their 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt back on June 10th. Bayer Leverkusen reached the finals of this tournament the day before when they defeated Saarbrucken by a 3-0 score. The 77th DFB-Pokal Cup will be played on a neutral field at Hertha Berlin’s Olympiastadion.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bayern Munich may have become the best team in Europe once Hanso Flick was appointed manager of the team in early November. The Bavarians were underachieving in league play as they were perhaps a bit listless after seven straight Bundesliga titles. Flick made a few crucial adjustments that re-ignited this team. First, he deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation with a high press. Not only did this force more turnovers but the higher placed backline on the pitch served to force more suboptimal shots from their opponents. Flick also moved Joshua Kimmich from fullback up the pitch to a holding midfield position — and not only did this give more room to operate for this rising superstar but it opened up a starting slot for Phonzie at fullback with the Canadian thriving with the opportunity given his multiple skill set. It is a bounty of riches for this team with a reliable veteran at forward in Thomas Muller, a scoring machine as the attacker in Robert Lewandowski who has 49 goals in all competitions, and then a 19-year freak of an athlete in Alphonso Davies with the Canadian being the fastest player on the field. Bayern Munich easily went on to win their eighth straight Bundesliga title by 17 points and enter this match on a seventeen game winning streak. They won all ten of their matches in the return to play in May while scoring 29 times and conceding just seven goals. Bayer Leverkusen stumbled in the return to play in May as they only won five of their nine matches with three losses. They only outscored their nine opponents by +2 net goals while surrendering nine goals. Die Werkself controlled their own destiny to take one of the four qualifying slots for next fall’s Championship League — but a devastating 2-0 loss at home to a Hertha Berlin team going nowhere blew those chances. Bayer Leverkusen will have to again settle for playing in the Europa League — and that status may degrade their confidence in this match. Die Werkself finished 19 points below Bayern Munich. The weak link for this team is their defense — they allowed just the 8th fewest goals in the Bundesliga this season while dropping to 10th place for expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. The Bavarians are an offensive machine who scored 100 goals this season — and while the metrics (unsurprisingly) call for regression, their expected goals still amount to a whopping 92.85 figure.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams split their two matches in the Bundesliga — but Bayern Munich won the last encounter between these two teams by a 4-2 score playing at Die Werkself’s Bay Arena. The Bavarians won their 19th DFB-Pokal Cup last year when they defeated RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score. Bayern Munich also has serious Champions League aspirations — so it will be all systems go for this juggernaut as they look to stay fresh for that competition next month while defending their German national championship crown. Bayer Leverkusen proved once again that they are not yet in the class of Borussia Dortmund, RB Leipzig, and this Bayern Munich organization after their disappointing finish. 25* Soccer ESPN2 Match of the Month with Bayern Munich (203002) minus the goal-line versus Bayer Leverkusen (203001). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-20 |
Arsenal v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.25 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-102 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W13-D13-L6) looks to continue their hot run following a 1-0 win at Aston Villa last Saturday. Arsenal (W11-D13-L8) has won their last two matches after they defeated Norwich City at home on Wednesday by a 4-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return to action with clean sheets in all three matches with a low 1.23 expected goals allowed combined mark in those contests. Wolverhampton stymies Big Scoring chances (defined as those opportunities with at least a 35% success rate). They lead the EPL by allowing just 24 non-penalty kick Big Chances this season and they have held their opponents to just 0.75 Big Chances per match since match week 25. Their recent improvement in their already outstanding defense has been the return of Willy Boly to their backline who has missed much of the season to injury. Overall, the Wolves have the lost expected goals allowed mark (xGA) in the EPL. They are also 5th in the league with 52 Big Chances (non-PK) of their own. Arsenal has held their last two opponents scoreless while scoring six times — but four of those goals could be accurately described as gifts by the opposition (including three bizarre goaltender flubs). The Gunners are 8th in the EPL table but the expected points projections (xPTS) drops them to 11th. Now they go back on the road where they have only won three times this year — and they have won only one of their seven matches on the road under new manager Mikel Arteta. They are being outscored in the xG projections on the road by a 1.18 xG to 1.76 xGA margin. Furthermore, Arsenal tends to start fast but fade at the end of their matches. They have a net expected goal differential (xGD) of -4.88 in the final 30 minutes of a match — and Wolverhampton has a +9.64 xGD mark in the final 30 minutes of their games. The Wolves have won all three of their matches since the return with goals scored in the second half.
FINAL TAKE: The reverse fixture between these two teams resulted in a 1-1 draw despite the Wolves generating 25 shots in their counter-attack against an undisciplined Arsenal side. This is a terrible situation for the Gunners as they are playing their fifth match on the road since the return to play over eighteen days. Wolverhampton has had an entire week off while Arsenal has played two more matches during that break. 20* EPL Arsenal-Wolverhampton NBC-Sports Network Special with the Wolverhampton (200194) minus the goal-line versus Arsenal (200193). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-04-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Manchester United -1.75 |
|
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 10:00 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W14-D10-L8) remained unbeaten in their last fifteen matches across all competitions with their 3-0 victory at Brighton and Hove Albion on Tuesday. Bournemouth (W7-D6-L19) are winless in their last seven matches after they lost at home to Newcastle United on Wednesday by a 4-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is simply a mess right now — and they look like they are resigned to accept relegation. They have lost all three of their matches since the return to action while scoring just one time and conceding seven goals. The Cherries have been an aggressive team under manager Eddie Howe which has spurred some exciting soccer for a midlevel team — if they win, it is usually because they outscore their opponent in higher-scoring contests. Yet Bournemouth has been tepid in their attack with just two shots on target in their last three matches and only one Big Chance with an estimated success rate of at least 35% (according to the deeper metrics) — that latter mark is tied for fewest in the EPL since the restart. The Cherries will still be without forward Callum Wilson who is serving his second game due to suspension. His mate up top in Joshua King is in a complete funk as he has been ineffective either due to a loss of confidence or a loss of spirit in this doomed season (or both). Bournemouth finds themselves tied with Aston Villa with the second-fewest points in the league. They are in the bottom-five in both expected goals (xG) and expected goals allowed (xGA). Frankly, the problems have manifested themselves long before the restart as they have managed to produce only 11 points since November. Now they go on the road where they have lost seven straight EPL matches with three of these contests being by at least two goals. Manchester United is one of the hottest teams in the EPL with a W3-D1-L0 mark in their four contests since last month’s return to play. The issue for the Red Devils is whether they will win this match by at least two goals. Since they acquired Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes in the winter transfer window, Man United are unbeaten in all thirteen of his matches played with nine victories and nine clean sheets while scoring 31 goals and conceding just four goals. Fernandes has been just what the doctor ordered to provide cohesion in the middle of the field. The restart also afforded him the opportunity to begin playing with both midfielders Paul Pogba and forward Marcus Rashford who have spent much of the season injured. Suddenly, the Red Devils have a bounty of scoring talent. Fernandes and Pogba have combined for three goals and one assist since the return to play — and I have not even mentioned the hat trick Anthony Martial pulled off two matches ago against Sheffield United. But it is the play on defense that makes this Man United team so dangerous. The Red Devils have allowed only two goals while registering six clean sheets in their last eight matches in the EPL. Since match week 25, Man United is allowing only 1.0 Big Chances per match — and they have allowed both the fewest shots and the fewest Big Chances since the return to action last month. They return home to Old Trafford where they have won each of their last three matches by at least two goals with eight combined goals scored and none conceded over that stretch. The Red Devils have five straight clean sheets at home having not surrendered a goal at home since January 22nd. Their expected goals allowed (xGA) at home of 0.80 is 3rd best in the EPL. And they have scored 13 goals in their last four home matches.
FINAL TAKE: The cherry on top of this situation (pun intended) is that Man United will not be taking Bournemouth lightly after losing to them on the road in the reverse fixture between these two teams on November 2nd by a 1-0 score. Motivated by revenge and their pursuit of a top-four spot on the EPL table to ensure qualification for next fall’s Championship League, I think the chances of a 3-0 (or better) result are higher than a 1-0 (or 2-1) final score (and we can live with a 2-0/3-1 push). 10* EPL Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Manchester United (200186) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200185). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-03-20 |
Mallorca v. Atletico Madrid UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-114 |
14 h 14 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). THE SITUATION: Mallorca (W8-D5-L20) snapped a two-game losing streak on Tuesday with their 5-1 victory over Celta de Vigo. Atletico Madrid (W15-D14-L4) remained unbeaten in their last thirteen matches across all competitions with their 2-2 draw at Barcelona last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: It was an offensive explosion for Mallorca with the last-place team in La Liga breaking a three-game losing streak with those five goals. They had scored just two goals in their first five matches since the return to action before scoring five times on just nine shots. The analytics indicate that Los Bermellones were rather fortunate to put up five goals considering that their expected goals (xG) for that match were just 1.69 xG. Now Mallorca goes back on the road where they are last in La Liga with just 5 points based on their W1-D2-L13 record this season. Los Bermellones have scored just 13 goals in those sixteen road matches. Mallorca has failed to score at least one goal in nine of their last ten losses. They will also be undermanned in this match with the biggest loss being their leading scorer in Ante Budimir who is suspended for this match due to yellow cards. Budimir has scored 12 of Mallorca’s 35 goals this season. Manager Vicente Moreno’s team still has plenty to play for with them occupying the final relegation spot in 18th place being five points shy of safety in 17th place. Moreno’s team is playing better on defense as of late as they have allowed eight combined goals over their last five matches with only one of these sides scoring more than two goals. Atletico Madrid is a dominant defensive team that has registered three clean sheets while allowing just four combined goals in their six matches since the return last month. Los Colchoneros have allowed only 25 goals this season which is 2nd best in La Liga — and they lead the league with the lowest expected goals allowed mark. Atletico Madrid is also tied for 2nd by conceding only 10 goals in their sixteen league matches at home. But Los Colchoneros have scored just 23 times in those sixteen home matches. Manager Diego Simeone is likely to sub a number of his key players who played in that showdown with Barcelona when now hosting this lightly regarded Mallorca team. Six of Los Colchoneros’ last ten home games resulted in them shutting out their opponent.
FINAL TAKE: Atletico Madrid won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 2-0 score. Four of the last five meetings between these two resulted in a game that finished Under 2.5 combined goals. Expect another lower-scoring match. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between Mallorca (201941) and Atletico Madrid (201942). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-20 |
Getafe CF v. Real Madrid UNDER 2.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Getafe (201951) and Real Madrid (201952). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W14-D10-L8) snapped a five-game losing streak with their 2-1 win over Real Sociedad on Monday. Real Madrid (W21-D8-L3) has won all five of their matches since the return to action last month with their 1-0 win over Espanyol last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Getafe’s two goals on Monday almost eclipsed the three combined goals in their previous four matches. Manager Jose Bordalas has his team play a defense-first style of play supported by a sturdy backline led by center-back Djene. The Azulones have allowed just five goals in their five matches since the return to play. Getafe is 3rd in La Liga with fewest goals allowed — and they are surrendering just 1.13 expected goals per game. The Azulones are even stingier when playing on the road as the 15 goals they have allowed in fifteen league matches are tied for the second-fewest in the league. Getafe will likely park the proverbial bus against mighty Real Madrid — and Los Blancos are likely to be comfortable with that style of contest. Manager Zinedine Zidane is happy with his team playing pragmatically. Real Madrid has scored only five combined goals in their last three matches. But Los Blancos may have the best defensive team in all of Europe (we will learn more next month when the Champions League returns). Led by Sergio Ramos, Real Madrid’s backline does a very good job of conceding few chances. They have only allowed two goals since the return of play with three clean sheets in those five contests. Overall, they have surrendered just 21 goals this season which is the best number in La Liga. Eight of Los Blancos’ last eleven victories have been via a shutout — so a 1-0 or 2-0 final score is likely.
FINAL TAKE: Getafe will be looking to avenge a 3-0 loss at home to Real Madrid back on November 4th. The Azulones have not scored in their last three matches against Los Blancos. Expect another lower-scoring match. 10* La Liga Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Getafe (201951) and Real Madrid (201952). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-20 |
Liverpool v. Manchester City -0.5 |
|
0-4 |
Win
|
107 |
0 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Manchester City (200178) minus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200177). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W20-D3-L8) looks to bounce back from a 2-1 loss at Chelsea last Thursday in their most recent English Premier League match. Liverpool (W28-D2-L1) clinched the 2019-20 EPL championship with that loss from the Cityzens combined with their 4-0 victory at home against Crystal Palace last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE MAN CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool may suffer an emotional letdown after winning the championship. While this team did not have the opportunity to hit every bar in London given COVID-19 social restrictions, the emotional intensity for this team may not be the same who now have nothing else to play for after being eliminated from the Champions League and FA Cup competitions earlier in the year. As it is, the Reds seemed to have let up a bit in their focus earlier in the year when their championship became considered inevitable. They dropped more points in a three-match string of games than they had in the previous thirty-eight EPL contests before defeating Crystal Palace last week. They also had been shutout in two of their previous three matches before scoring four goals against the Eagles. Now Liverpool goes back on the road where they are winless in their last four matches while losing three times. They have not scored a goal in their last four games — and their star attacker, Mo Salah, has scored only two of his 17 league goals away from their home pitch at Anfield. The Reds have 86 points — but the deeper expected goals metrics projects them with just 64.04 expected points (xPTS). Man City tops that mark with 68.97 xPTS. Man City did respond from their elimination from defending their two-straight EPL titles by defeating Newcastle United on Sunday by a 2-0 score. Yet manager Pep Guardiola should have his team razor-focused for this match. Throwing out their response to a 2-0 loss to Manchester United since COVID-19 delayed their next league match by three months, Guardiola has seen his team win all six of their next EPL matches after a loss while scoring 19 goals and conceding just one goal. They still have plenty to play for being alive in both the FA Cup and the Champions League. And while Sergio Aguero is out for this team, Gabriel Jesus is more than capable as the team’s striker in his absence after not playing in that match against the Blues. Aguero averages 0.74 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes — but Jesus tops those numbers by average 0.77 xG per 90 minutes.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have a chip on their shoulder having to watch the traditional Guard of Honour recognizing Liverpool’s championship on their home pitch. The Cityzens have won six of their last seven matches at home at Etihad Stadium while scoring 19 goals and allowing just four goals. And they will be looking to avenge a 3-1 loss at Liverpool back on November 10th. Look for Man City to stun the new champions. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Manchester City (200178) minus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200177). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-02-20 |
Tottenham Hotspur -0.5 v. Sheffield United |
Top |
1-3 |
Loss |
-107 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W12-D9-L10) enters this match coming off a 2-0 win over West Ham last Tuesday. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L9) comes off a 2-1 loss at Arsenal in the FA Cup on Sunday that followed up a 3-0 loss last Wednesday at Manchester United in their last English Premier League contest.
REASONS TO TAKE TOTTENHAM MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Spurs match with the Hammers was the first time under manager Jose Mourinho where he had a full complement of the team’s best scoring options at his disposal. Harry Kane and Son Heung-Min have been injured for much of time since Mourinho took over in mid-November and Dele Alli was suspended for their 1-1 draw with Manchester United in their first match back from the March stoppage. A healthy Spurs’ side generated a potent 2.53 expected goals against West Ham pointing to the still elite potential of this team. Remember, it was just over a year ago that this Tottenham team was in the finals of the Champions League where they lost to Liverpool for the European Championship. The team seemed tired of manager Mauricio Pochettino’s message in the fall with their sluggish play which led to him being sacked amidst disagreements with management over the direction of the team. Mourinho has ditched Pochettino’s pressing approach for a counter-attacking style that may be better attuned for the injuries he was facing midseason before the stoppage of play in March. Limiting the Hammers to just 0.84 expected goals is encouraging as is their 1-1 draw with Man United last week with the Red Devils being one of the hottest teams in the EPL. The most encouraging aspect of this team may from the play of Kane last week as he scored a goal and played with more energy and vigor on the pitch than he has demonstrated in a long time. The three months off may have been just what the doctor ordered for the forward who has won two straight Golden Boots in the EPL. Sheffield United is scoreless in their last six league matches — and they have only scored once in their four matches in the return to play last month. They have allowed eight goals in their last three matches. Perhaps a visit from the Regression Gods was inevitable — while the Blades rank 8th in the EPL with 44 points, their expected points (xPTS) drops them to 13th with 39.97 points in those projected rankings. This has always been a defense-first club under manager Chris Wilder — but injuries and a busy schedule testing the depth of a promoted side have challenged this team. Their best defender in center back Jack O’Connell remains a doubt with his injury for this match and defensive midfielder John Lunstram only played 35 minutes on Sunday with an ankle injury that may keep him out for this contest. After holding their opponents to just 6.82 inside the box before the break, Sheffield United have allowed 10 shots in EPL play since the return to play. And the Blades are allowing 3 big chances representing scoring chances of a 35% or better success rate per match since the return as compared to the 1.89 big chances they were allowed before the break. Or, maybe their injuries and challenges of the thin backline are just excuses for those inevitable Regression Gods: Sheffield United has allowed only 31 goals this season which is 3rd best in the EPL — but their 42.88 xGA is just 8th best in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United was an overachieving team this season that was benefiting from great cohesion. All that was spoiled by the stoppage of lay — and the Blades have not only regressed back to the mean in terms of their underlying metrics but their lack of depth and experience has them playing like the promoted team they were expected to be when they rejoined the EPL this season. These two teams settled with a 1-1 draw in November. But now Tottenham is much healthier under a new manager — and Sheffield United has not only played twice as many matches since the return risking fatigue with their limited depth but they are also playing their third match since the Spurs last took the pitch last Tuesday. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Tottenham (200173) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200174). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
07-01-20 |
Leicester v. Everton |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). THE SITUATION: Everton (W11-D8-L12) looks to build off their 1-0 win at Norwich City last Wednesday. Leicester City (W16-D7-L8) lost their FA Cup Quarterfinals match at home against Chelsea on Sunday by a 1-0 score after settling for a nil-nil draw at home against Brighton in their last English Premier League match last Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Leicester City was riding high after their first seventeen league matches where they had 39 points while generation 1.93 expected points (xG) and allowing just 1.05 expected points (xGA). But the Foxes have lost their mojo since that time as they have managed just 16 points over their last fourteen league matches. They have regressed on both sides of the pitch as they have averaged just 1.48 xG over that span while allowing 1.65 xGA. They have experienced a massive -1.04 expected goal differential drop over that span. What has happened? For starters, their talisman Jamie Vardy has not been himself as he got into a scoring funk that was exacerbated by missing a couple of matches to an injury. His big chances of scoring opportunities of 35% or higher have plummeted since his hot streak in the fall. This malaise has spread to the entire team that has seen its tenacity and pace decline. The Foxes are also not getting great play out of their midfielders — and they will be without James Maddison for this match. Leicester City has not scored in four of their last six league matches while averaging just 1.13 xG over those contests — and they were then shutout on Sunday by Chelsea. They have won only four times in their last fourteen EPL matches. Since the return to play this month, they have generated only 1.68 expected goals in both their EPL matches — and they lost the expected goals battle against two teams mired in the bottom-six of the table in Brighton and Watford. Not good, Bob. Perhaps what Leicester City is experiencing is simply a long-overdue visit from the Regression Gods. While they are 3rd in the league in the table, their expected points of 49.71 drop them to 6th best. Everton is unbeaten in their last seven EPL matches — and they probably deserved a win in their draw with Liverpool in their first game back from the break. This is a much-improved team under manager Carlo Ancelotti. They have generated 1.98 xG while holding their opponents to just 1.22 xGA with that xG differential being the 5th best in the league over that span. The Toffees are one of three EPL teams entering this match week that have yet to concede a big chance. They return home to Goodison Park where they have only scored 19 times — but their xG at home rises to 24.05 which strongly suggests they have experienced some tough luck. Everton plays very tough defense at home as they held their opponents to just 1.12 xGA on their home pitch — and they have also held the top half of the table to just 1.19 xGA at home this season. The Toffees are unbeaten at home under Ancelotti with three wins in those six matches while allowing just four combined goals. And in their last eight matches against non-Big Six sides under Ancelotti, Everton is beaten in those contests with six wins and a +7 net goal differential with 14 goals scored. The Toffees still have much to play for despite being in 12th place as they are just four points out of 7th place and the likely final spot to qualify for the Europa League next fall. Their 49.48 expected points (xPTS) are 7th best in the league a just behind Leicester City’s number.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will have revenge on their minds as well for this contest having lost three straight matches to the Foxes across all competitions. The Toffees lost the reverse fixture between these two teams on December 1st by a 2-1 score before then losing at Leicester City in the League Cup via penalty kicks after a 2-2 score back on December 18th. Manager Marco Silva was in charge of both those matches — so this is the Toffees' first opportunity to play the Foxes since Ancelotti took over the club. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Year with the Everton (200166) with the goal-line versus Leicester City (200165). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-30-20 |
Manchester United v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.25 |
Top |
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W13-D10-L8) comes off a 3-0 victory over Sheffield United last Wednesday in their last match in the English Premier League. Brighton (W7-D12-L12) registered a nil-nil draw in their last match last Thursday at Leicester City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man United followed up their win over the Blades on Wednesday with a 2-1 victory at Norwich City in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on Saturday. Eight of the starters that played in that midweek match with Sheffield did not start o Saturday against the Canaries so manager Gunnar Solskjaer should have a relatively rested starting XI despite their busy schedule since the return to action this month. The Red Devils have scored five goals in their two EPL matches this month — and they have scored seven goals while allowing one goal in their three matches overall since the return. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary last Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Martial, Rashford, and Pogba did not start on Saturday so they should all be fresh for this match. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. The Red Devils have also been outstanding on defense with five clean sheets in their last seven league matches. But while they have surrendered just two goals in their last seven EPL matches, their expected goals allowed (xGA) mark over those seven games rises to a 7.3 xGA mark which strongly suggests they have been very fortunate in not surrendering more goals. Furthermore, much of their defensive prowess has taken place at Old Trafford where they have resisted five straight clean sheets. Man United has allowed nineteen of their thirty goals when playing on the road this season in EPL action. Brighton has lost just once in their last seven matches in EPL play. They return home where they have scored in five of their last six matches. The Seagulls will be a confident group when playing at the Amex where they have already pulled off upsets against Tottenham, Everton, and Arsenal while earning draws with Chelsea and Wolverhampton. In their three home matches against Big Six sides, Brighton has scored six times. The Seagulls have scored 34 goals this season while conceding 41 goals — but the deeper metrics suggest that both those numbers are unexpectedly low given their expected goals mark of 40.80 (xG) and their expected goals allowed (xGA) figure of 45.82. Brighton still has plenty to play for being only six points safe from relegation. Manager Graham Potter will open up his team’s style of play if they fall behind to attempt to salvage at least one point with the draw. They have an expected goals mark of 1.53 when playing at home — and they allow their opponents to register 1.33 xGA when at home.
FINAL TAKE: Brighton are dangerous dogs in this match (which is why I am passing on the side play) — I expect them to score on this Man United team that is not as stingy when playing on the road. But the Red Devils are clicking on offense now with their best talent finally all healthy. Man United won the reverse fixture between these two teams when they won by a 3-1 score back on November 10th. But Brighton has won their last two opportunities to host the Red Devils where they have scored four combined goals. 25* EPL Tuesday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Manchester United (200153) and Brighton and Hove Albion (200154). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-20 |
Real Sociedad v. Getafe CF |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 29 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). THE SITUATION: Getafe (W13-D10-L8) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Valladolid last Tuesday. Real Sociedad (W14-D5-L12) has lost three straight matches after their 1-0 loss to Celta Vigo on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE GETAFE WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Real Sociedad is a young and vibrant team that was making a serious challenge to finish in the top-four in the La Liga this season which would qualify them for next year’s Champions League. But this team has struggled in the return to play this month as they have lost three of their four matches with just one draw keeping things from being completely dismal. We had La Real in that opening match at home against Osasuna where I endorsed a strong play on Real Sociedad given the underlying metrics for both teams along with the apparent mismatch for both teams with Osasuna not having much to play for in the return to play. But watching that match made it evident that La Real was simply not very motivated despite a rally from their 1-0 deficit to eke out the draw. There have been a handful of younger players across the European leagues who did not keep themselves in tip-top shape during quarantine who have then been slow to get back to game-shape. With Real Sociedad now on a three-game losing streak and seven points out of 4th place that would qualify them for the Champions League, the motivation for this team is in question moving forward. Injuries — or the lowered threshold of what is a debilitating injury — has made matters worse for this team. La Real will be without their captain Asier Illarramendi along with Ander Barrenetxea, Lucas Sangalli, and Ander Guevara are dealing with injuries that will likely keep them out for this match. And their key backline player in Diego Llorente is suspended for this match after receiving his second yellow card on Wednesday. This potential Champions League team is simply a shell of their best days pre-COVID. They have only scored two times in their four matches after being 3rd in the league in scoring before the stoppage in play. Now Real Sociedad goes back on the road where they are 8th in the La Liga with 20 points — but their expected points (xPTS) of 16.20 in their fifteen road matches are just 11th best in the league. Getafe is winless in their last five contests — but they have only lost once in their four matches since the return to action. The Azulones engage in an intense style that may have been difficult to reproduce without a set of friendlies before returning to league action after three months off. But every week that passes should help Getafe return to the form that keeps them in 5th place in La Liga just 5 points out of 4th place (and Champions League qualification) entering this match in the live standings. Getafe has only allowed four goals in their four matches since the return to play. They return home for this match where they have lost only three times in sixteen league matches — and those losses were against Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid who are the top-three teams in the league. The Azulones have been a bit unfortunate at home with their 22 goals scored contrasting with their 28.12 expected goals (xG) at home which is 4th best in La Liga. They will also be without their best defender in center back Djene Dakonam who was suspended for this match after being dealt his second yellow card on Tuesday. But the Azulones have a bit more to play for at this point of the season — and they have one extra day of rest while being in better form than La Real.
FINAL TAKE: Getafe won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 21- score on the road. Getafe has won five of the last six meetings between these two teams — look for them to continue their dominance in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Monday beIN Sports Network Match of the Year with Getafe (201842) minus the goal-line versus Real Sociedad (201841). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-29-20 |
Burnley v. Crystal Palace UNDER 2 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
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At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200149) and Crystal Palace (200150). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W12-D6-L13) rebounded from a 5-0 loss at Manchester City in their return to action this month with a 1-0 win over Watford on Thursday. Crystal Palace (W11-D9-L11) saw their four-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday with a 4-0 loss at Liverpool.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Burnley found their defensive acumen again on Thursday by limiting the Hornets to just 0.84 expected goals in that match. The Clarets are second in league with twelve clean sheets behind their underrated keeper Nick Pope. Burnley will have to lean again on their defensive cohesion in this game. Manager Sean Dyche is saddled with a host of injuries in their attack with forwards Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out and Jay Rodriguez questionable with a knock after he scored Burnley’s lone goal since the return to action on Thursday. The Clarets have scored only fourteen goals in their fifteen matches on the road this season. But they have allowed only sixteen goals in their twenty matches against non-Big Six sides this season for a microscopic 0.80 goals-per-game opponent scoring average. Crystal Palace had registered four straight clean sheets in EPL action before Liverpool dialed up four goals on Wednesday. The Eagles also play a defensive-oriented style for manager Roy Hodgson where things can get rough if they fall behind by more than one goal. It was apparent that is was going to be a long day for Hodgson when star midfielder Wilfried Zaha limped off the field with an injury that likely leaves him out for this match. Crystal Palace only managed three shots against the Reds with none inside the box for a microscopic 0.09 expected goals mark. It has now been thirty-one straight EPL matches where the Eagles did not score more than two goals. They have scored only twenty goals in their twenty-two matches against non-Big Six sides — but they have given up its sixteen goals in those contests. They return home where they are last in the EPL with just twelve goals — but they have surrendered only thirteen goals which were tied for the second-lowest home mark to begin this match week 31. Furthermore, in their twelve home games against non-Big Six sides, the Eagles have scored only ten goals while allowing just eight goals for 0.83-0.67 average scoring marks.
FINAL TAKE: Crystal Palace has won the last four meetings between these two teams while surrendering just one time after their 2-0 win in the reverse fixture back on November 30th. There is a good chance that at least one of these teams fails to score in this contest. 10* EPL Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200149) and Crystal Palace (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-20 |
Manchester City v. Newcastle United UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup on March 4th when they defeated Sheffield Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Newcastle United punched their Quarterfinals ticket on March 3rd when they defeated West Brom on the road by a 3-2 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Man City will be playing their first match since officially being eliminated from defending their two-time English Premier League championship with their 2-1 loss at Chelsea on Thursday. Those are the only two goals that the Citizens have allowed in their three matches since the return of play this month. Man City leads the EPL by allowing just 1.01 expected goals per game this season — and their defense is much better with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte at center back leading their backline. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season (before the return to play this month), the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play, those numbers fell to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. With holding-midfielder Fernandinho suspended for this match after being issued a red card in that game with Chelsea on Thursday, I expect LaPorte to be in the starting XI this afternoon. Manager Pep Guardiola will likely choose his best players for this match with FA Cup and Champions League championships in August still goals this season. But Man City will be without their best attacking forward in Sergio Aguero who suffered an injury last week that may keep him out for the rest of the EPL season. While Gabriel Jesus is a capable replacement at forward after being rested in that Chelsea match, it is Aguero that is the straw that stirs the drink. Newcastle is playing very effective compact soccer right now. They registered their third clean sheet over their last four matches with the only goal being surrendered over that span being on Wednesday in their 1-1 draw at home versus Aston Villa. The Magpies are particularly stingy when play at home in St. James Park where they have allowed only 13 goals in sixteen English Premier League matches which are tied for the second-lowest mark in the EPL. With all eight teams competing in the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup being from the EPL, I am comfortable using those statistics in handicapping these contests. The concern for this Newcastle United team is that their ambition on offense can stagnate. They registered a low 0.79 expected goals against a suspect Aston Villa defense on Wednesday while failing to generate even one big scoring chance of at least a 35% probability of success rate. The Magpies are averaging just 1.07 expected goals per game in the EPL which is second-to-last. Newcastle has scored only 16 goals at home this year which is the second-fewest in the EPL — and that is matched by their expected goal projection at home which is also 19th in the league.
FINAL TAKE: But manager Steve Bruce is content to grind out lower scoring matches on his home pitch. In their four home games against a big six side in the EPL this season, Newcastle has won two of these matches (while taking one point with a draw in a third game) while seeing only seven combined goals scored. 25* FA Cup Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Manchester City (200413) and Newcastle United (200414). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-28-20 |
Southampton v. Watford OVER 2 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W11-D4-L16) has lost three of their last four matches with their 2-0 loss at home to Arsenal on Thursday. Watford (W6-D10-L15) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Burnley on Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Southampton has seen five combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action this month as they began with a 3-0 victory at Norwich City. The Saints have played better under manager Ralph Hasenhuttl after hitting rock bottom in a 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl doubled-down on his high-press aggressive style of play which has helped generate scoring chances. Southampton is averaging 1.59 expected goals per match this season — and they have the 7th best expected goals mark when playing on the road. But this approach does make them vulnerable on their back end. The Saints are allowing 2.42 big scoring chances with an expected success rate of at least 35% which is the 4th highest mark in the EPL. Their challenge on defense in this match is heightened with starting defensive back Jack Stephens suspended for this match after receiving a red card in that match against the Gunners on Thursday. Southampton is averaging 1.66 expected goals (xG) when playing on the road — but they are allowing 1.79 expected goals (xGA) in these fifteen road contests. The Saints have scored at least one goal in seventeen of their last eighteen road matches — and they have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight games away from home. Watford has only seen three combined goals in their first two matches since the return to action. But they return home to Vicarage Road where they are average 1.80 xG per match which is 8th best in the EPL. The Hornets have scored in seven of their last eight matches at home. But they are also allowing their opponents to average 1.51 xGA in their fifteen home matches. Additionally, Watford has only generated just one clean sheet in their last nine matches.
FINAL TAKE: Watford has seen an average of 3.03 combined expected goals scored in their fifteen matches at home. 60% of their home games have finished Over the Total. Southampton is averaging 3.04 combined expected goals per match in their fifteen road games. 67% of those matches have finished Over 2.5 goals — and they have seen eight of their last ten road matches finished Over 2.5 goals. 25* EPL Sunday NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Southampton (200145) and Watford (200146). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-27-20 |
Manchester United -1 v. Norwich City |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-135 |
10 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). THE SITUATION: The Football Association Challenge Cup for men’s domestic soccer in England is the oldest soccer competition in the world. Manchester United reached the Quarterfinals of this event back on March 5th when they defeated Derby County on the road by a 3-0 score. Norwich City reached the Quarterfinals of the FA Cup the day before on March 4th when they upset Tottenham via penalty kicks after a 1-1 score.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big six powers in the English Premier League tend to rotate players for these FA Cup matches with this competition not as prestigious as the English Premier League and the Champions League. But Gunnar Solskjaer has never won a championship as a manager so he may be keener to produce a lineup that will lead to victory in this match. At the very least, Solskjaer will likely call on his big guns if his team does not have a lead in the second half. And he certainly has the benefit of a deeper bench than what this Norwich City team has available to them as the last-place team in the EPL. Man United is unbeaten in their last thirteen matches with nine victories over that span. The Red Devils have been transformed with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes as they have not lost since he put on their uniform. The stoppage of play also allowed this team to get healthy. Now Man United has seen forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba on the pitch with Fernandes to make this starting XI loaded with talent. Forward Anthony Martial was the beneficiary on Wednesday as he scored a hat trick in the Red Devils’ 3-0 win against Sheffield United in EPL play. Man United is 2nd in the league since the restart in both big chances and expected goals. But it is the play on defense that has made the biggest difference for Solskjaer’s side. The Red Devils have registered clean sheets in six of their last eight matches across all competitions. And they are just one of three teams to not allow even one big chance since the EPL returned to action this month. They go on the road for this match but they are averaging over 2.0 expected goals away from home in league play — and they are unbeaten in their last seven matches on the road in the EPL. While this is technically not an English Premier League match, I am comfortable looking at that data when assessing how they will perform against another EPL team. Norwich City is in deep trouble to be relegating as they are six points behind the three-way tie for 19th place in the EPL. They have managed only 8 points in their last eleven matches where they have won just one match. The Canaries have lost both their matches since the return to play while failing to score and allowing four goals. Norwich City is struggling on both sides of the pitch. They have been held scoreless in six of their last seven matches — and they scored just one time in that one game where they were not blanked. The Canaries have the worst attack in the EPL — and they have only managed two shots on target in their two matches since the return to play. They have also allowed a whopping 21 shots inside the box in their two matches this month — and they are last in the EPL in expected goals allowed.
FINAL TAKE: Man United swept the two EPL matches between these two sides this season as they followed up a 3-1 win at Carrow Road in October with a 4-0 win at home at Old Trafford on January 11th. While rotation risks exist with the Red Devils for this match, keep in mind that they play five straight matches against teams in the bottom seven in the EPL starting with this contest so Solskjaer may feel comfortable playing some of his key players to make sure his team advances to the Semifinals. And because Norwich City will be playing with abandon in this elimination contest, a Red Devils route is very possible. 25* FA Cup Match of the Month with the Manchester United (200401) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-27-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.5 v. Aston Villa |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
At 7:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W12-D13-L6) is unbeaten in their two matches since the return to play this month after they defeated Bournemouth on Wednesday by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D6-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves are playing outstanding soccer right now as they are unbeaten in their last five EPL matches with four victories. They have scored nine goals in those five matches while conceding just two goals. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team is playing suffocating defense with six clean sheets in their last seven league matches. They have held their two opponents since the return to just 0.40 combined expected goals allowed after limiting a solid Cherries’ attack to just 0.13 expected goals allowed (xGA). Wolverhampton is significantly better — and more confident — in thwarting their opponent’s attack when Willy Boly is healthy and on the pitch. In their fifteen EPL matches with Boly, they are allowing just 0.50 goals-per-game with nine clean sheets while allowing 1.20 big chances per game and 6.80 shots inside the box per game. Those numbers all compare favorably versus sixteen league matches without Boly where they are allowing 1.60 goals-per-game with just one clean sheet while allowing 1.62 big chances per match and 6.87 shots inside the box per game. Overall, Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing only 24 big chances all season. The Wolves are a balanced team — they are also 4th in the league with 52 big chances on offense. These strong fundamentals help explain why they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-four of their thirty-one league matches. They are unbeaten in their last four EPL matches on the road with three victories. They are 4th in the league with 24 points on the road — and they rank 3rd in expected points (xPTS) when playing away from home. With Wolverhampton tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table, they are very motivated to keep playing well to qualify for one of the four spots for next fall’s Champions League (with Man City’s eligibility still up in the air). Aston Villa is tied for second-to-last in the EPL table having gone winless in their last seven matches with five losses. They have only scored twice in their three matches since the return to play this month. On paper, it appears as if the Villans have significantly improved their play on defense with manager Dean Smith using the stoppage of play to adjust his defensive tactics. Smith had to do something — his team had allowed the most shots inside the box through twenty-nine game weeks since the EPL starting measuring that data. But the Villans have also benefited from a relatively weak returning schedule facing a Magpies team this week that is second-to-last in scoring in the EPL along with a rusty Chelsea side, and an undermanned Sheffield United group that leans heavily on their defensive play. Aston Villa remains desperate for points — so they will play more aggressively if and when they fall behind in this match. The Villans have not registered a clean sheet in eleven straight matches. They are winless in their last nineteen matches in English top-flight in the top-six of the standings in the time of the match — and they have lost seventeen of these contests including their last thirteen.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on November 10th. With seven days off before their next contest, Nuno can comfortably play his best starting XI. Don’t get worried if the Wolves lack a lead at halftime as they have outscored their opponents in the second half by a whopping 32-10 margin. And they have allowed only one goal in the EPL this season after taking a one-goal lead. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200141) minus the goal-line versus Aston Villa (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-26-20 |
Real Valladolid v. Sevilla -1 |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-146 |
1 h 53 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201874) minus the goal-line versus Valladolid (201873). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D11-L6) is unbeaten in their last eight matches after their 2-2 draw with Villarreal on Monday. Real Valladolid (W7-D13-L11) also comes off gaining a point in the La Liga table with their 1-1 draw at home to Getafe on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla entered Matchweek 32 in the Spanish top-flight four points above the 5th place team with the top four teams in the league qualifying for next year’s Championship League. Manager Julen Lopetegui rested a handful of his key players in that match to begin the week including leading scorer Lucas Ocampos — so Los Nervionenses should be primed for a big effort in this match. Sevilla is a very consistent team that has scored in twenty-two straight matches in La Liga play. They also have generated the fourth most clean sheets in the league this year. They have allowed only three goals in their four matches since the return to action — and they have only allowed one opponent to produce an expected goal rate of over 1.0 xG in those four contests. Los Nervionsenses have also generated 5.28 expected goals on offense since the return to play which is the 5th most of all the teams in La Liga. This quality play on both sides of the pitch is one of the reasons why Sevilla has only lost two matches in their last twelve league contests. They stay at home at Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan where they are W7-D6-L2 this season. Real Valladolid has won just once in their last six contests in league play. They have only scored three goals in their four matches since the return to action this month. This Pucela team is last in La Liga in creating scoring chances. Motivation may be an issue for this team as they rank 15th in the standings while being 8 points clear of the relegation zone. But the deeper metrics suggest that Real Valladolid are overachieving as their expected points (xPTS) drops them to second-to-last in the league. Now this team goes back on the road where they are tied for 9th place in points — but their xPTS drops to just 17th in the league when playing away from home. This team is undermanned in this match with defenseman Pedro Porro and forward Sandro Ramirez dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Sevilla won the reverse fixture between these two teams on the road by a 1-0 score. Look for Los Nervionenses to register another victory against Real Valladolid who does not have much to play for at this point of the season. 10* La Liga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Sevilla (201874) minus the goal-line versus Valladolid (201873). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-25-20 |
Manchester City v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 4 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200137) and Chelsea (200138). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W20-D3-L7) has won four of their last five matches after they defeated Burnley on Monday by a 5-0 score. Chelsea (W15-D6-L9) won their first game in their return to the pitch on Sunday with their 2-1 win at Aston Villa.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Man City has scored eight goals in their two matches this month. While they lost their striker Sergio Aguero for, at least, a few weeks with a knee injury he suffered in that match, manager Pep Guardiola has an embarrassment of riches with options to replace him on the pitch. Forward Gabriel Jesus gets plenty of action as the lead striker for this team -- but do not be surprised if Guardiola moves Raheem Sterling to the number nine spot atop the field — that is the position Sterling plays for the English National team. The Citizens lead the EPL with the most goals scored — and they also lead the EPL by averaging 2.62 expected goals (xG) per match. Now Man City goes back on the road where they are generating 2.53 xG per game — but they are vulnerable in back as they allow 1.21 xGA in their fifteen league matches on the road. The Citizens are better on defense with a healthy Aymeric LaPorte healthy and playing at center back — but they have still allowed their opponents to see 14% of their non-penalty scoring chances represent “big chances” with at least a 35% expected success rate. Chelsea was lethargic on offense on Sunday until Christian Pulisic and Ross Barkley took the pitch as substitutes in the second half. They jump-started the Blues offense with Pulisic evening the score with the Villans in the 60th minute before Olivier Giroud scored the game-winner two minutes later. Chelsea returns home to Stamford Bridge where they are scoring just 1.47 goals-per-game as compared to the 2.07 goals-per-game they are averaging on the road. But the Blues have suffered some hard luck at home because they have an xG of 2.33 at home which is better than the 1.61 xG they have on the road. Chelsea will be without one of their starting defenders for this match with Fikayo Tomori out with an injury. The defense is the weak-link for manager Frank Lampard’s team — the 40 goals they have allowed this season is more than the 39 goals they allowed all of last season.
FINAL TAKE: Pulisic has been injured for much of the season — but the American is the real deal despite him warranting some initial skepticism as just a product of the US media hype machine. The Blues are already an aggressive team that deploys a press to put their young talent in positions to succeed — and that approach is bolstered when left-back Marcos Alonso is starting (as he is in this one). Chelsea’s attack is even better with Pulisic in the middle of the field. Man City is a juggernaut — but the Blues should be competitive. Look for, at least, a 2-1 result. 10* EPL Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200137) and Chelsea (200138). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-20 |
Mallorca v. Real Madrid -2 |
|
0-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201830) minus the goal-line versus Mallorca (201829). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W19-D8-L3) has won all three of their matches since the return to action earlier this month with their 2-1 win at Real Sociedad on Sunday. Mallorca (W7-D5-L18) looks to build off a 1-1 draw at home over Leganes on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos now control their destiny to win the La Liga championship with Barcelona suffering a draw this month. Real Madrid is three points behind Barca entering this match but control the potential tie-breaker between these two teams if both win out courtesy of their victory in the latest rendition of El Classico earlier this year before the stoppage of play. Real Madrid has scored eight goals in their three matches this month while conceding just twice. They return home where they are W11-D4-L0 will scoring 33 goals and conceding just 10 times. Mallorca has scored just once in their three matches this month while allowing six goals in what has included two losses. They were fortunate to escape with a draw on Friday considering that they lost the expected goals battle to Leganes by a 1.32-0.38 xG margin. The Balearic Islanders have been much better at home where they are now W6-D3-L7 — but now they go back on the road where they are just W1-D2-L11. Those 5 points away from home are the fewest in La Liga — and they are also last in the league in expected points on the road.
FINAL TAKE: A blowout is likely for Real Madrid. Six of their last ten victories have been by at least two goals. And there is little chance that manager Zinedine Zidane’s side will take Mallorca lightly considering that one of three losses this season was on the road at Estadi de Sonmoix. 20* La Liga Mallorca-Real Madrid beIN Sports Special with Real Madrid (201830) minus the goal-line versus Mallorca (201829). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-24-20 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.75 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
50 |
0 h 11 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200110) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200109). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W11-D13-L6) returned the pitch on Saturday with their 2-0 win at West Ham. Bournemouth (W7-D6-L17) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Bournemouth is in serious trouble to be one of the three relegated teams as they are currently tied for that spot in the EPL table with just 27 points. Manager Eddie Howe’s team lacked much ambition in the return to action on Saturday as they maned just 0.55 expected goals in their shutout loss to the Eagles. Over their last five matches, the Cherries have lost four of these contests with one draw while scoring just four times. But the defense has been even worse for Bournemouth as they have allowed at least two goals in each of those four matches while allowing 11 goals overall. Furthermore, in their last nineteen matches in the EPL, the Cherries are allowing 1.93 expected goals (xGA). They have not earned a clean sheet in league play in their last thirteen matches while conceding 25 goals during that span. Defense has usually been an issue under Howe whose attacking frenetic style leaves his team vulnerable. Bournemouth has stayed afloat in the EPL by scoring plenty of goals — which is why their scoring slump now is a significant cause for concern. They are averaging just 1.17 expected goals (xG) in their last nineteen EPL matches. Now they go back on the road where they have lost twenty-four of their last thirty-four matches in EPL play since the start of last season. Forward Joshua King did not look mentally prepared to return to play in that match — and he is now questionable with a knock for this match. Wolverhampton is undefeated in their last six matches with three victories and five clean sheets in that span. The Wolves have plenty to play for being tied with Manchester United for 5th place in the EPL table. They have registered three straight clean sheets when playing at home where they are now allowing only 1.06 xGA per match. Wolverhampton leads the EPL by allowing just 24 big chances on defense this season. They also feast against the bottom teams in the league as they have won five of their six opportunities to host a team in the lower half of the league while scoring 16 times and allowing just four goals.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton won the reverse fixture on the road back on November 23rd by a 2-1 score. With Bournemouth looking mentally checked out this season, look for the Wolves to dominate this match. 25* EPL Midweek Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200110) minus the goal-line versus Bournemouth (200109). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-20 |
Sheffield United v. Manchester United -1 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200122) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200121). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D10-L8) returned to the pitch last Friday with their 1-1 draw at Tottenham. Sheffield United (W11-D11-L8) looks to bounce back from a 3-0 loss at Newcastle United.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Man United is unbeaten in their last twelve matches with eight victories. The team has been jumpstarted with the winter transfer acquisition of Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes who has scored nine teams across all competitions with the Red Devils not losing a match since he put on the red jersey for this franchise. Man United should have earned the 3 points with a win over the Spurs last Friday as they won the expected goals battle by a 1.69-0.47 xG margin. The Red Devils have been ravaged by injuries this season but they are as healthy as they have been al season with both Marcus Rashford and now Paul Pogba back on the pitch. Pogba came off the bench on Friday and the team looked electric on offense with him joining Fernandes in the middle of the field. Man United returns home to Old Trafford where they are averaging 1.98 xG this season while holding their opponents to 1.14 xGA. The Red Devils have allowed only three goals in their five home matches against a non-Big Six side. Sheffield United looks to have lost all their mojo after being unbeaten in six straight matches before the stoppage of play. The Blades’ lack of depth of defense was exposed in that match with the Magpies after center back John Egan was called for a red card in the 50th minute of that match. They were already missing their other starting center back in Jack O’Connell — and Sheffield United then conceded three goals in a 23-minute stretch to get dominated in that match last Sunday. Egan is suspended for this match while O’Connell remains a doubt for this match. To compound matters, the Blades cannot play their star goaltender Dean Henderson since he is on loan from his parent club which is Man United. That leaves Sheffield United undermanned at their strength which is their defense. The Blades have not done much on offense either with just 12 combined shots in their two matches since the return along with a mere 0.80 combined expected goals in those games.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture on November 24th. Man United has dominated Sheffield United when playing at home with seven straight victories where they have scored 17 times while allowing just two goals. 20* EPL Sheffield United-Man United NBC Sports Network Special with the Manchester United (200122) minus the goal-line versus Sheffield United (200121). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-24-20 |
Everton -0.5 v. Norwich City |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Everton (20013) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (20014). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D8-L12) comes off an impressive nil-nil draw at home against Liverpool on Sunday. Norwich City (W5-D6-L19) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss to Southampton.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Toffees will be looking to register their first victory in their last five matches in this contest. They deserved to defeat the inevitable EPL champions this season on Sunday as they won the expected goals battle by a 1.13-0.73 mark. This team has been much better under new manager Carlo Ancelotti who replaces Marco Silva in late December. The three-time Champions League winner as the skipper for Real Madrid and AC Milan has pushed the right buttons to get more out of the talent that exists on this roster. Since he took over, Everton has averaged 2.08 expected goals (xG) while allowing just 1.29 xGA which is 5th best in the EPL over that span. Perhaps Ancelotti’s biggest contribution has been to unleash the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in the league to generate at least one big chance in eight straight matches before the stoppage of play. This team goes back on the road where they are averaging an impressive 2.11 xG in their last five matches. Norwich City has lost five of its last seven matches. Even worse for this team seemingly destined for relegation as they have managed only 8 points in their last ten matches with just 11.2 expected goals in this matches while allowing 18.81 expected goals during that span. The Canaries have been shut out in five of their last six matches while scoring just one goal in those games. Norwich City hosts this match where they are allowing 2.02 xGA per match. in their twenty-one matches against teams outside the Big Six, they have lost thirteen of these matches while conceding 32 times and scoring just 13 goals.
FINAL TAKE: Everton will be motivated to avenge a 2-0 loss at home to the Canaries back on November 23rd. That match was about a month before Ancelotti replaced Silva. Look for the Toffees who are in much better form to overwhelm a Norwich City in the last place and likely headed back to the English Champions League in the fall. 20* EPL Wednesday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Everton (20013) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (20014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-20 |
Granada +0.5 v. Leganes |
|
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 9 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Granada CF (201801) plus the goal-line versus Leganes (201802). THE SITUATION: Granada CF (W12-D6-L12) suffered their first loss in their last seven matches with their 1-0 loss at home to Real Villarreal on Friday. Leganes (W5-D9-L16) comes off a 1-1 draw at Mallorca on Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE GRANADA CF PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: At first glance, Leganes appears to be the sharp play in this contest. With them tied for last place in the La Liga standings with just 24 goals, they are desperate for the three points a victory would produce in this contest with them currently five points behind safety from relegation. Los Pepineros are 14th in the table in expected points (xPTS) with 35.78 — so the deeper metrics think this team should be safe from demotion to the second tier Spanish professional league in the fall. But the team on the pitch this afternoon will not have three of the key players that helped produce those encouraging analytics. The Cucumber Growers lost two of their best forwards in the winter transfer period with Youssef En-Nesyri being sold to Sevilla and Martin Braithwaite transferring to Barcelona. Those two players accounted for almost half the team’s goals when they departed. Argentinian Alexander Szymanowski slid into the attacking role with their departures — but he will be out for this match with an injury. As it is, Leganes is last in the La Liga with just 23 goals scored — and they are second-to-last in expected goals (xG) scored. Their 14 goals at home are also second-to-last in the league along with their xG at home of just 15.82 which is also 19th. The Cucumber Growers have scored just five goals in their last eight matches — and they have scored only seven goals in the last eleven games. Furthermore, they have scored only two goals in their three matches since the return to play while conceding five times. They have only won once in their last eight matches. Granada is W1-D1-L1 in their three matches since the return to play. They are dealing with a host of injuries themselves — but they remain motivated to get a victory in this match with them being just five points out of 7th place and the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. El Grana can struggle against the top teams in the league — but they do feast on the bottom teams especially when playing on the road. Granada has only generated one point in their eight matches on the road against one of the top-ten teams in La Liga. However, they have produced 12 points in seven matches against teams in the bottom half of the league when playing on the road. And while they have allowed the 5th most goals when playing on the road, the expected goals they should have allowed in those road matches are 6th best in La Liga.
FINAL TAKE: Granada won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 1-0 score back on September 28th. Granada has a very good chance to win this match — and a draw is likely their worst result against an opponent that lacks reliable scoring threats. 10* La Liga Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Granada CF (201801) plus the goal-line versus Leganes (201802). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-22-20 |
Burnley v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
0-5 |
Loss |
-111 |
12 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). THE SITUATION: Burnley (W11-D6-L12) was unbeaten in their last seven matches before the stoppage of play after their 1-1 draw at home with Tottenham. Manchester City (W19-D3-L7) comes off a 3-0 win at home on Wednesday over Arsenal in their return to the pitch.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Citizens’ victory over the Gunners was their third clean sheet in their last four matches in the English Premier League — and they have played six straight matches in EPL action where one of the teams was shut out. Man City suffocated the Arsenal attack on Wednesday as they allowed only three shots with none on target. Pep Guardiola’s team is much better with center back Aymeric LaPorte on the pitch after he missed much of the season with an injury. Before Wednesday’s match, in the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allowed 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match before the return to play this week, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. Man City scored three goals against Arsenal but keep in mind that two of those goals were scored with a man advantage after the Gunners’ defenseman, David Luiz, was whistled for a red card. The Citizens struggled early to get their offense going in that match as they managed only two shots while posting a minuscule 0.13 expected goals mark in the first 30 minutes of that match. Forward Sergio Aguero did not start in that match so he is likely to be one of the starters up top for the two-time defending champions for this match — but who knows what will happen with Pep roulette with the remaining starting XI. Don’t be surprised if Raheem Sterling and/or Kevin DeBruyne does not start in this match. With Liverpool all but clinched the EPL title this season, the goal for Guardiola and this team is to slowly get his team in shape and form for a Champions League run in August which is the only championship to elude this team over their fantastic run in the last few seasons. Man City has the allowed only 12 goals in the EPL when playing at home in the Etihad while also leading the league in the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They have produced six clean sheets in their fourteen home matches at home. And in their ten home games against teams outside the traditional big six EPL clubs, Man City has surrendered just seven goals. Burnley will be significantly undermanned at forward with both Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes out with injuries for this match. Wood and Barnes are the Clarets’ two leading scorers with seventeen combined goals which account for half of the team’s 34 goals on the season. As it is when at full strength, Burnley has scored only seven goals in their ten matches against the traditional big six sides in the EPL. Expect manager Sean Dyche has his team park the proverbial bus to stymie the Man City attack in this match. Dyche would be ecstatic with a nil-nil draw. The Clarets have allowed at least three goals in only six of their twenty-nine matches — and they have given up more than three goals in just three of those games. When Burnley is playing in a defensive 4-4-2 formation, they enjoy a positive net expected goal differential of +4.85 (xGD) so they are comfortable with this approach. Defense has led the way for the Clarets’ good form before the stoppage of play. Burnley has allowed only one goal in the last three matches while giving up just two combined goals over their last six matches. But the Clarets have scored just four times in their last six matches.
FINAL TAKE: Burnley will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at home to Man City in the reverse fixture on December 3rd. The Citizens have allowed only two goals in their last five opportunities to host the Clarets in Etihad Stadium. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Burnley (200025) and Manchester City (200026). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-21-20 |
Liverpool v. Everton +1 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 2:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). THE SITUATION: Everton (W10-D7-L12) is winless in their last three matches after suffering an embarrassing 4-0 loss at Chelsea in their last match back on March 8th. Liverpool (W27-D1-L1) returns to the pitch after a 2-1 win over Bournemouth back on March 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE EVERTON PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: I question the motivation of this Liverpool team returning from the three-month hiatus with little to play for. The Reds are a commanding 22 points up in 1st place in the EPL table so their championship is all but guaranteed. Liverpool was also eliminated already in the Champions League in a loss in the Round of 16 to Real Madrid so manager Jurgen Klopp does not have any expectations for his squad to prepare for an August run to defend their European championship. It has been a magical twelve or so months for the Reds — but it is probably impossible for them to continue to play at the incredible level that they had enjoyed. While they have 82 points in the EPL this season, the deeper metrics suggest that they should have only earned 59.61 expected points (xPTS) which is a dramatic dropoff (and below Manchester City’s xPTS mark). They have outscored their opponents by +45 goals this year in league play — but their expected goals differential drops to +32.34 (xGD). Cracks in their armor were showing before the stoppage in play. After the disappointing loss to Real Madrid, Liverpool then averaged just 1.55 expected goals (xG) in their final three EPL matches while allowing 1.44 expected goals (xGA) which is far below their scorching 2.16 xG - 1.12 xGA clip for the season. From the vantage point of my “eye test”, the Reds have lost some of their emotional intensity which resulted in less vigor in their effort on defense. Now Liverpool goes on the road where while they are W12-D1-L1 in EPL play for 37 points, their expected points on the road fall to just 26.00. Everton has been underachieving relatively to the deeper metrics all season. While they are in 13th place in the EPL table, their expected points are 6th best in the league. Those numbers suggest that the Toffees have been the second unluckiest team in the league. They had registered at least 2.0 expected goals per match in seven straight contests before their underwhelming effort at Stamford Bridge against Chelsea. Everton has played much better since manager Carlo Ancelotti was appointed to replace Marco Silva in late December. Ancelotti is the real deal with three Champions League titles as the manager of AC Milan and then Real Madrid. Ancelotti is considered a tactical genius with an ability to adapt his schemes to his talent along with the weaknesses of his opposition. The Toffees are W5-D3-L3 since Ancelotti took over which has improved the W8-D2-L9 clip they had under Silva. Over their last five matches, Everton led the EPL in big chances created on offense along with being second in total goals scored and third in expected goals. The Toffees were also second in expected goals allowed so they have played well on both ends of the pitch. Ancelotti has unlocked the potential of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin who was the only player in EPL to record at least one big chance in eight straight match weeks. Overall, Everton is 2nd in the EPL since Ancelotti took over by averaging 2.17 xG — and they are 6th in the league on defense with a 1.37 xGA mark. This is a very underrated side. They host this match at Goodison Park where they are W1-D3-L1 in their five matches against a traditional big six opponent well scoring 6 goals and allowing just 6 goals.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have played to a draw in six of their last seven Merseyside Derby’s at Everton. The Toffees will be very motivated to pull the upset as they lost the reverse fixture to Liverpool by a 5-2 score on December 4th before then losing to the Reds on January 11th by a 1-0 score in FA Cup play against a roster filled mostly of younger players. 25* English Premier League Sunday NBC-TV Match of the Year with Everton (200046) plus the goal-line versus Liverpool (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-20 |
Crystal Palace v. AFC Bournemouth |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-126 |
1 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Bournemouth (200022) with the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200021). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W7-D6-L16) return to the pitch this afternoon with their last match being a 2-1 loss at Liverpool back on March 7th. Crystal Palace (W10-D9-L10) last played on March 7th when they defeated Watford by a 1-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE BOURNEMOUTH WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Cherries were slumping when play stopped as they had lost thirteen of their last eighteen league matches while allowing their opponents to register 1.99 expected goals per game. Injuries did not help their situation then — so three months to get healthy along with the extended time for manager Eddie Howe to rethink things on defense can only help. Remember that Bournemouth has become a staple in the English top-flight with this being their fifth straight season in the EPL. They have only lost five of their last fourteen league matches at home in Vitality Stadium. They also feast on the lesser competition of the league when playing at home — they have generated 10 points in their last six matches at home against the bottom-ten teams from the table. Crystal Palace may be lacking motivation in the return to action with them stuck in the middle of the table. The Eagles are 12 points safe from relegation in 11th place — but they are also 7 points behind 6th place with both Arsenal and Tottenham standing in their way of potential qualification for the Europa League next fall. The deeper metrics suggest that Crystal Palace has been fortunate to be in the position they are in as they rank just 15th in the EPL in expected points (xPTS). While they are allowing just 1.10 Goals-Per-Game (6th in the EPL), they have an expected goals allowed mark (xGA) of 1.53 which is just 10th in the league. The Eagles are being outscored by -6 net goals this season but their net expected goal differential (xGD) is -16.08. They have only won four of their fourteen matches on the road while being saddled with a 2.01 xGA mark. In their last five road games, they have a combined 11.67 xGA which has resulted in a net expected goal margin of -5.17 xGD.
FINAL TAKE: Crystal Palace has won their last two matches against Bournemouth after their 1-0 win in the reverse EPL fixture on December 3rd. But those two matches were at Selhurst Park. The Cherries host this match with a sense of urgency with a difficult stretch of matches on deck with road games at Wolverhampton, Manchester United, and Manchester City along with home matches against Tottenham, Leicester City, and Everton. 20* EPL Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Bournemouth (200022) with the goal-line versus Crystal Palace (200021). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-20-20 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers -0.25 v. West Ham United |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 23 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W10-D13-L6) was unbeaten in their last five English Premier League matches before the stoppage of play with their 0-0 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion on March 7th. West Ham United (W7-D6-L16) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at Arsenal back on March 7th in their last match.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves were unbeaten in their last five games in the English Premier League while posting clean sheets in four of those contests. They are also still alive for the Europa League championship as their last match before the break-in play was a 1-1 draw at Olympiakos Piraeus in the first leg of their Round of 16 matches. Depth is an issue for this West Midlands team so the three-month break offers them an advantage as they are rested for this final run of matches. Wolverhampton is currently in 7th place in the EPL table while remaining alive to qualify for one of the four available Champions League slots. The deeper metrics are bullish on the Wolves as they have won the expected goals battle in twenty-two of their twenty-nine matches in the EPL this season. Wolverhampton ranks 5th in the league in expected points (xPTS). Over their last eight matches, the Wolves were posting an expected goals (xG) scoring mark of 2.08 while holding their opponents to just 0.94 expected goals (xGA) — and they held the advantage in this metric after matches with top-level teams Manchester United, Tottenham, and even 1st place Liverpool during that span. Now this team goes on the road where they rank 3rd in the EPL in xPTS. West Ham was just W1-D2-L6 in their last nine matches before the stoppage of play. Defense has been a major weakness for this team as they rank 2nd-to-last in the league by allowing 2.05 expected goals per match. The return of David Moyes as their manager at the end of December did not rectify this problem. The Hammers have allowed the second-most Big Chances for their opponents along with the second most shots inside the box since Moyes took over the reins of this team for the second time after he was skipper for the team in 2017-18. West Ham has generated only 8 points in their ten matches under Moyes when allowing 1.94 expected goals per match which is the 4th worst mark in the league during the span. West Ham hosts this match without fans in London Stadium where they are suffering with an expected goal differential of -5.61.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham has lost their last three matches against Wolverhampton after their 2-0 loss at Molineaux on December 4th. Look for the Wolves to outclass the Hammers who are struggling in 17th place in the EPL table. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Wolverhampton (200013) minus the goal-line versus Wes Ham United (200014). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-20 |
Barcelona FC v. Sevilla +0.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D9-L6) remained unbeaten in their last six matches on Monday with their 1-1 draw at Levante. Barcelona (W20-D4-L5) has won seven of their last eight matches with their 2-0 victory over Leganes on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla suffered a hard-luck draw in that match on Monday as they scored an own goal in the 87th minute to forfeit their impending 3 points with the victory. They have yet to see an opposing player score against them in their two matches since the return to play. The Andalusians are in 3rd place in the La Liga table as they look to qualify for one of the four slots in the Champions League. Sevilla already had a strong attacking team but they fortified their stable of forwards in the winter transfer period by signing the 23-year old Youssef En-Nesryi along with acquiring Suso on loan from AC Milan. They join their summer transfer in Lucas Ocampos who is their leading scorer this season. Over their last ten matches, the Andalusians have lost now twice while posting 1.64 expected goals (xG) and allowing just 1.17 expected goals (xGA). They host this match where they are unbeaten since December while losing only two of their fourteen matches. They have an impressive +0.97 net expected goal differential when playing at home. And while some bettors may look to the fact that they have only produced 15 points in their last eight home matches, they have posted an impressive +1.03 net expected goal differential in those matches which suggests they were the victim of some unfortunate circumstances. Barcelona has won eight of their ten matches since manager Quique Setien took over the team in January. But both of their losses under Setien have taken place on the road against Real Madrid and Valencia. The reigning La Liga champions have not been as dominant when playing on the road as they are averaging just 1.5 points per road match which is their lowest mark in a decade — and their expected 1.64 points per match on the road indicates they have not been particularly unlucky with those results. The Catalonians have just a +3 net goal differential when playing on the road — and the expected goals metric concurs with only that slight edge as they are just +0.30 net expected goal differential per match when playing on the road. In their victory over Leganes on Tuesday, they only generated 0.88 non-penalty kick expected goals which is not very impressive. Superstar Lionel Messi did score the final goal in that match via a penalty kick. Yet they are averaging 2.34 expected goals per game at home — and now they go back on the road where they are scoring just 1.48 expected goals per match. Barca has feasted on the lesser teams in the league like the last place Leganes this season — they have only 9 points in their last seven matches against teams in the top half of the table.
FINAL TAKE: Barcelona did defeat Sevilla in the reverse fixture between these two teams on October 6th in their 4-0 victory at home at Camp Nou. But the underlying metrics suggest that the match was much closer than expected as Sevilla won the expected goals battle by a 3.27 to 2.46 mark. The Andalusians have a good chance to pull the upset on this Barcelona team that has been vulnerable on the road. A draw may be likely which makes getting the +0.5 goal very valuable. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports Match of the Year with the Sevilla (201910) plus the goal-line versus Barcelona (201909). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-20 |
Manchester United v. Tottenham Hotspur |
Top |
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
6 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W12-D9-L8) returns to the pitch for the first time since they defeated LASK on the road by a 5-0 score in Europa League action on March 12th. Tottenham (W11-D8-L10) last played in the second leg of the Round of 16 of the Champions League where they were eliminated by RB Leipzig by a 3-0 score on March 10th.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Red Devils had found their form under manager Gunnar Solskjaer as they had not been beaten in their last eleven matches across all competitions while scoring 29 goals over that span and conceding goals just twice. Man United was not simply feasting against weaker competition either as four of those eight victories came against teams currently residing in the top-six spots in the EPL table including Manchester City who they defeated in their last EPL match on March 8th by a 2-0 score. That was no fluke either against two-time defending EPL champions (and the best statistical team this year in the EPL according to the expected goals metric) — they won the xG battle by a 1.32-0.75 margin in that contest. The winter signing of midfielder Bruno Fernandes jumpstarted this team. The Portuguese star from Sporting Lisbon brought this team a risk-taking play-maker that they have been missing. Since Gameweek 25, the Red Devils are second in the EPL in shots on target. Now this team takes the pitch again healthy with forward Marcus Rashford and midfielder Paul Pogba back from injuries that have sidelined both for much of the season. Rashford is the team’s best scorer — and he should thrive with a new partner in Fernandes on the pitch. Pogba is the real wildcard here as the enigmatic French star has not contributed much over the last two seasons. But do not underestimate Pogba’s talent — he was a key component in France’s World Cup victory in 2018 and tends to shine when surrounded with other elite players. Despite not being healthy all season, Man United sports an impressive W6-D4-L1 mark in their eleven matches against the top-eight teams in the EPL table while allowing just nine goals with five clean sheets. Their lone loss was at Liverpool who are running away with the EPL title. Now at full strength, the Red Devils could become very, very good for the rest of this unique season. Tottenham also gets healthy again with Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min, Moussa Sissoko, Steven Bergwijn, and Tangy Ndombele all recovered from the injuries they were dealing with before the stoppage in March. But the Spurs will be without one of their key pieces in the midfield with Dele Alli suspended for this match. Kane is a bit of a mystery for me as I worry that the 26-year old may be wearing down after years of extended service for this franchise along with the English national team. But the problems for this Tottenham side that are winless in their last six matches are more endemic than just some ill-timed midseason knocks. Manager Maurice Pochettino took this team to the Finals of the Champions League to conclude last season (where they lost to Liverpool) — but he returned for his sixth season with the franchise with a group of players that had lost interest in his leadership. The ensuing slow start prompted his firing in mid-November where he was replaced by the enigmatic Jose Mourinho. One of the tactical changes that Mourinho deployed was to abandon the pressing style that Pochettino favored that was no longer succeeding for counter-attacking tactics. Unfortunately for the Spurs, the results have been dreadful on the defensive side of the pitch for this team. In the seventeen matches under Mourinho, Tottenham have 29 expected goals allowed mark which is 5th worst in the EPL over that span — and their -2.6 expected goal differential in those matches in 12th in the league. Over their last ten matches, the Spurs averaging an xGA mark of 2.08 while twice allowing their opponents to cross the 3.0 expected goals mark. In their last EPL match against Burnley, they allowed a team not known for their attacking prowess to pepper them with 21 shots in eight on target in what concluded in a 1-1 draw on March 7th. Seeing the return of these talented offensive players will help — but the talent and cohesion of the roster of defensive backs remains a question. Against the traditional Big Six EPL teams this season, Tottenham is just W1-D2-L5 while conceding 13 times and scoring only 9 goals.
FINAL TAKE: The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Manchester United back on December 4th. Tottenham has generated 26 of their 41 points in the EPL at home this season in their new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium — but the lack of fans in this contest will detract from their home-field advantage in this facility. The Spurs have lost two of their three opportunities to host a Big Six side this season. 25* EPL Friday NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Manchester United (200037) minus the goal-line versus Tottenham (200038). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-19-20 |
Southampton v. Norwich City |
|
3-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Southampton (200033) with the goal-line versus Norwich City (200034). THE SITUATION: Southampton (W10-D4-L15) returns to the pitch after a 1-0 loss at home to Newcastle United on March 7th. Norwich City (W5-D6-L18) comes off a 1-0 loss at Sheffield United on March 7th.
REASONS TO TAKE SOUTHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Saints started W1-D6-L8 in their first fifteen matches last year which prompted them to fire manager Mark Hughes. Former RB Leipzig manager Ralph Hasenhuttl took over the team and oversaw a W8-D6-L9 finish to the season to barely stave off relegation with Saints finishing in 16th place. The key to Hasenhuttl’s success was installing a high-press scheme that significantly increased the team’s aggressiveness. But Southampton struggled to start this season — and they hit rock bottom in the fall in a humiliating 9-0 loss to Leicester City. Hasenhuttl did not back down on his pressing approach but he did change formations to add a fourth defender for his backline after the international break offered him to reassess the team’s tactics. The Saints responded by going on a W7-D2-L3 run over their next twelve matches which catapulted them into the middle of the table. Southampton was slumping before play stopped in March — but the hiatus has allowed Hasenhuttl to once again tweak with his game management. The Saints press has been a success as they rank 3rd in the EPL behind Liverpool and Man City in passes allowed before a defensive action on their part. The deeper metrics are bullish on this team — while they are 14th in the table with 34 points, their expected points (xPTS) of 41.09 is 8th best in the EPL. Southampton has also been a good road team this season — they have won six of their fourteen matches with two draws with those 20 points being tied for 6th best in the league. Norwich City has lost three of their last four EPL matches — and they have been shut out in four of their last five contests. The Canaries lack finishers with only forward Teemu Pukki presenting a reliable scoring threat. They are converting a mere 7.5% of their 335 shots attempts with those resulting 25 goals being tied for the fewest in the EPL. But defense may be the bigger concern for this team with the 52 goals they have allowed this season being tied for the second-most in the league. The Canaries are giving up too many high-quality chances inside the 6-foot box — and this is in part because they are allowing the 4th most passing inside the 20-yard box.
FINAL TAKE: Norwich City will be looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at Southampton back on December 4th. The Canaries will miss the emotional support of their home fans with this match being played in an empty stadium — 71% of their 21 points this season have been generated at home at Carrow Road. And because Norwich City is in last place, they need to play aggressively with the hopes of securing the 3 points with the victory. 10* EPL Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Southampton (200033) with the goal-line versus Norwich City (200034). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-18-20 |
Valencia v. Real Madrid -1.25 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Real Madrid (201878) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201877). THE SITUATION: Real Madrid (W17-D8-L3) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 3-1 victory at home over Eibar. Valencia (W11-D10-L7) comes off a 1-1 draw at home against Levante last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL MADRID MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Los Blancos looked dominant in that match on Sunday as they scored three quick goals in the first 37 minutes of that contest to cruise to their victory. Injuries have slowed this team down but manager Zinedine Zidane had the services of Eden Hazard again for that contest after the Belgium striker had been out with an injury for much of the season. Hazard did not score but he did assist on one of the goals. Real Madrid is second in the league to Barcelona — but they lead La Liga in both expected goals (xG) and the fewest expected goals allowed (xGA). They are allowing just 0.71 goals per 90 minutes in league play which is the best mark of all the four major professional leagues that have returned to play since the stoppages in March. They also lead La Liga with an expected goal differential (xGD) of +28.96 on the season. They stay at home where they will be playing the remaining of their matches at their training facility Estadio Alfredo di Stefano. While the 6000 seat facility is not as intimidating as their 80,000 Santiago Bernabeu, Los Blancos certainly retain a familiarity edge when playing in this arena. Real Madrid is W10-D4-L0 at home in league play where they have scored at least two goals in ten matches and where they have registered clean sheets in five contests. Half of their home victories have been by at least two goals. Valencia may be the most overvalued side in La Liga. They are the only team in the top-half of the table with a net goal differential — and they have a -8.42 net expected goal differential on the season. While they began the match week in 8th place with 43 points in the table, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 34.83 which is 12th in the league. Los Che average the second fewest chances on offense in the league with under 9 shot attempts per match — and they are also allowing more than 15 shots per game by their opponents. They have managed only 3.87 expected goals combined over their last four contests for a meager 0.97 xG per match average. Their defense is undermanned with Ezequiel Garay, Gabriel Paulista, and Cristiano Piccini all dealing with injuries. They go back on the road where they are W3-D3-L7 but with an expected goal differential (xGD) of -11.03. They are winless in their last six matches on the road in league play with a -6.09 xGD — and they are averaging a mere 0.57 xG in those contests.
FINAL TAKE: Real Madrid won the last meeting between these two teams back on January 8th with their 3-1 victory on the road in Super Cup play. But these two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture in league play on December 15th so Los Blanchos are not likely going to take this team lightly. 20* La Liga Thursday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Real Madrid (201878) minus the goal-line versus Valencia (201877). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-20 |
Arsenal v. Manchester City UNDER 3.5 |
|
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 3:15 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200001) and Manchester City (200002). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W9-D13-L6) had won their last three matches culminating with a 1-0 victory at home over West Ham on March 7th before the stoppage in play due to COVID-19. Manchester City (W18-D3-L7) has been anxious to get back on the pitch after losing the Manchester Derby to Man United by a 2-0 score in their building back on March 8th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: While the two-time defending champions have a roster packed with dynamic scorers, those players can distract from the fact that this team plays outstanding defense for manager Pep Guardiola. The Citizens lead the English Premier League in both fewest goals allowed along with the lowest expected goals allowed (xGA) in the league. They also led the EPL in giving up the fewest Big Chances in their last ten league matches before the March hiatus. The good news for Pep is that the extended layoff has provided the time for center back Aymeric LaPorte to recover from his injury. Man City’s defense improves significantly with LaPorte on the pitch. In the seven games LaPorte has played this season, the Citizens allowed a stingy 0.43 goals-per-game as compared to their 1.14 defense Goals-Per-Game average in their other twenty-one contests. And while Man City allows 5.7 shots per match in the box along with 1.6 Big Chances per match, those numbers fall to just 4 shots per match in the box along with just 1.2 Big Chances allowed per game with LaPorte healthy and playing. This will be the eighth match this season where they have played one of the perennial Big Six sides — the Citizens have scored only nine times in those seven matches. They host this match at Etihad Stadium where they lead the EPL in both the fewest goals allowed along with xGA. Arsenal has embraced more defensive tactics under new manager Mikel Arteta who took over in late December. The Gunners have allowed just nine goals in their ten matches under Arteta. However, these tactics have come at the expense of their offensive attack as they have scored just 16 times in those ten matches. Arsenal is likely to play cautiously in this match while hoping their attacking talent like Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can strike on a counterattack. They have scored only nine goals in their seven matches against a Big Six side. They go on the road where they have scored just 14 times in their thirteen contests — and they have scored just four times in their five road matches under Arteta. But the Gunners have surrendered just four goals in those last five matches away from home — and this is a team that has registered three clean sheets in their last four contests.
FINAL TAKE: Arsenal has scored only twice in their last six matches against Man City across all competitions. These are unique circumstances with 100 days passing since the last EPL match — so it is very much like a second offseason. It is interesting to note that Man City delivered two clean sheets in their last two opening matches to a new season. 20* EPL Arsenal-Man City NBC Sports Network O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200001) and Manchester City (200002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-17-20 |
Mainz v. Borussia Dortmund UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). THE SITUATION: FSV Mainz (W9-D4-L18) looks to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg last Sunday. Borussia Dortmund (W20-D6-L5) has won five of their last six matches with their 1-0 win at Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: That was the fourth clean sheet for the Black-Yellows in their six matches since the return to play last month. Borussia Dortmund has only allowed three goals in those six contests. Manager Lucien Favre has transformed his team from a freewheeling attacking unit into a side that prioritizes sturdy defense. BVB has allowed only five goals in their last ten matches across all competitions — and they have surrendered just three goals in their last ten matches in the Bundesliga. Furthermore, they have registered a clean sheet in eight of their last twelve matches in league play. Borussia Dortmund returns home where they lead the league in both goals allowed and in expected goals allowed (xGA). On paper, the Black-Yellows also have a very potent offense that is second in the league with 82 goals scored this season. But Borussia Dortmund has been wildly fortunate with that haul since their expected goals drop to just 59.71. And while the BVB has scored 46 times at home, their xG at home also plummets to a 33.52 mark. Since the return to play, Dortmund has failed to register even 1.0 xG in three of their six matches — and they have only topped 1.76 xG once in those contests. FSV Mainz has not scored a goal in four straight maths — and they are just six goals in their last eleven contests. But Achim Beierlorzer has been seeing his team play better defense since he took over the club midseason. The 05ers have only given up 10 goals in their six matches since the return. They also limited Augsburg to just 0.76 expected goals on Sunday in that narrow 1-0 loss.
FINAL TAKE: Borussia Dortmund produced a 4-0 shutout victory over FSV Mainz back on December 14th in the reverse fixture between these two teams. The 05ers will struggle to score against an even more compact foe in BVB this time around — but they should allow fewer goals in this rematch. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS2-TV Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between FSV Mainz (202441) and Borussia Dortmund (202442). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-17-20 |
Sheffield United v. Aston Villa |
Top |
0-0 |
Push |
0 |
7 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 1:00 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). THE SITUATION: Sheffield United (W11-D10-L7) returns to the pitch for the first time since March 7th when they defeated Norwich City at home by a 1-0 score. Aston Villa (W7-D4-L17) has lost five games in a row across all competitions after their 4-0 loss at Leicester City back on March 9th.
REASONS TO TAKE SHEFFIELD UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Blades were unbeaten in their last six matches before the stoppage in play. They had only lost to the top two teams in the league in Liverpool and Manchester City in their last thirteen matches on the road in league play. Sheffield United’s defensive-first approach has been very successful against the non-power teams in the English Premier League. In their nineteen matches against the traditional non-Power Six, the Blades are W10-D6-L3. They are also unbeaten in their eighth matches on the road in the EPL against non-Big Six sides with four victories and four draws. They have won seven of their last nine matches with two draws being their lone blemishes against non-Big Six sides while only allowing five goals in these contests. Aston Villa has allowed 12.24 expected goals in their last four league matches to compound to their defensive woes this season. The Villans are last in the EPL in both goals allowed and expected goals allowed. The metrics are not encouraging with this team at all either as they rank last in the league with an expected goal differential of -27.8 xGD. Aston Villa returns to action having allowed the most shots inside the box through the first twenty-nine game weeks since that metric started being measured. They have not registered a clean sheet in nine straight games. The Villans also do not pressure the opposing goalkeeper enough as they have the fourth feast big chances in the EPL while ranking last in both big chances and expected goals scored over their last ten matches. Aston Villa is getting their talented midfielder John McGinn back for this match after he suffered an injury in the fall — but his game fitness for this match is in question after the long layoff.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-0 score back in December. Aston Villa will struggle to score against the compact Blades defense — but they will likely allow at least one goal as their expected goals allowed of 2.45 xGA is -0.32 xGA worse than the next most porous defensive team in the EPL. 25* English Premier League Midweek NBC-Sports Network Match of the Year with the Sheffield United (200005) with the goal-line versus Aston Villa (20006). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-20 |
Bayern Munich -2 v. SV Werder Bremen |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-125 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202453) minus the goal-line versus Werder Bremen (202454). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W23-D4-L4) has won fourteen straight matches across all competitions after their 2-1 win at home against Borussia Monchengladbach on Saturday. Werder Bremen (W7-D7-L17) has won three of their last six matches with their 5-1 win over Paderborn on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Werder Bremen has played much better since the return to play as they desperately try to salvage their season by climbing out of the relegation zone. This is a proud organization that is the longest-running franchise in the Bundesliga going back to 1981-82. But it is because of these ambitions which might compel the River Islanders to quickly but bait on this game if the Bavarians take a lead so they can rest their key players for this weekend’s match where they have a much better chance to taking three points with the win. Werder Bremen still allowed 2.05 expected goals to a Paderborn team that is in the basement in the Bundesliga. The Green-and-Whites stay at home at Weserstadion where they are tied for last place in points generated. They have not won at home scene September 1st which accounts for thirteen straight matches. Bayern Munich will be primed to win this match as the three points would clinch their eighth straight Bundesliga title. They defeated the 5th place team in the league in Borussia Monchengladbach despite being without Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller who were suspended for that match after receiving their fifth yellow cards the previous week. Lewandowski leads the Bundesliga with 30 goals while Muller has added seven goals with 20 assists.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich dominates lesser competition — they have won all seven of their matches against the bottom-four teams in the league while scoring 30 goals and allowing just seven goals. Four of those victories were by at least four goals including a 6-1 victory over Werder Bremen in the reverse fixture back on December 14th. Look for the Bavarians to blowout a River Islanders team that will likely look to save their energy for the weekend. 10* Bundesliga Bayern Munich-Werder Bremen FS2-TV Special with the Bayern Munich (202453) minus the goal-line versus Werder Bremen (202454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-16-20 |
VfL Wolfsburg +0.5 v. Borussia Monchengladbach |
Top |
0-3 |
Loss |
-135 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). THE SITUATION: VfL Wolfsburg (W12-D10-L9) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw at home to Freiburg on Saturday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L9) has lost two straight matches after their 2-1 loss at Bayern Munich last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE VFL WOLFSBURG PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Wolfsburg has been solid since the return to action last month with their W3-D1-L2 mark in those six contests. Die Wolfe finds themselves in 6th place in the Bundesliga table while being 4 points safe to qualify for next fall’s Europa League. The metrics suggest they have underachieved this season as their expected points (xPTS) from the expected goals projections places them 5th best in the league. They are led by the Danish superstar Wout Weghost who scored twice on Saturday to raise his goals mark to 18 on the season across all competitions. Wolfsburg has registered at least 2.0 expected goals (xG) in four straight matches. Now they go on the road where they have won three straight matches with an expected goal differential (xGD) of +3.42 in those games. Die Wolfe defeated 4th place Beyer Leverkusen on the road back on May 25th by a dominant 4-1 score. Wolfsburg is 4th in the Bundesliga in xPTS while ranking in the top-four on the road in both xG and xGA. Borussia Monchengladbach has struggled since the return with just a W2-D2-L2 mark while scoring just 10 goals while allowing 9 goals. The scoring prowess for Die Fohlen has slowed as of late as they have scored only one goal in their last two matches. Furthermore, Borussia Monchengladbach has scored only five combined goals in their last four matches — and they have scored more than one goal in just one of their last five games. They were without forward Alassane Plea over the weekend as he was suspended for that match against Bayern Munich. But while he will return, the Foals are undermanned up top still with Breel Embolo dealing with a calf injury that kept him from starting on Saturday and with Marcus Thuram dealing with an injury that had him limp off the field in that game against the Bavarians. Borussia Monchengladbach hosts this match where they rank tied for 6th in the league with 20 goals allowed — but their xGA at home drops to 11th in the Bundesliga with a 27.48 mark.
FINAL TAKE: Wolfsburg won the reverse fixture at home by a 4-1 score back on December 15th. Borussia Monchengladbach is not playing as well since the return from the stoppage of play. They also appear to be feeling the pressure to finish in the top four spots in the standings to secure one of the four Champions League qualifications. Wolfsburg can pull the upset in this match — but they would be happy with a very attainable draw. 25* Bundesliga Tuesday FS2-TV Match of the Year with VfL Wolfsburg (202425) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202426). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-20 |
Granada +0.5 v. Betis |
|
2-2 |
Win
|
109 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Granada CF (201845) plus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201846). THE SITUATION: Granada CF (W12-D5-L11) remained unbeaten in their last five La Liga matches with their 2-1 win at home against Getafe last Friday. Real Betis (W8-D9-L11) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss at Sevilla last Thursday.
REASONS TO TAKE GRANADA CF PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: It was a very nice performance for Los Nazaries as they rallied from a 1-0 deficit against the 5th place team in La Liga to score twice in the last 20 minutes to steal the victory. Granada dominated the performance according to the deeper metrics as they registered 2.06 expected goals (xG) while holding Getafe to just 0.74 xG. Los Nazaries is now in 8th place in the Spanish top-flight table just 2 points behind the final spot to qualify for the Europa League next fall. Now this team goes back on the road where they have surrendered 24 goals this season which is tied for the 5th most in the league. Granada has been pretty unfortunate in that regard as they rank 7th best in the league with just 19.13 expected goals allowed. While Los Nazaries is tied for 11th place with 12 points on the road, they rise to 7th place with 16.64 projected points based on expected points (xPTS). Granada struggles against the top-half of the La Liga table with just 1 point in eight matches while being outscored by a 19 to 7 margin. But Los Nazaries has feasted on the bottom half of the table on the road with 11 points in these six matches with an xG differential of +0.90. Real Betis is in no man's land in the standings in 13th place with 33 points which are 8 points more than the relegation zone. The motivation of this team is in question with them having little chance to qualify for the Europa League. A lackluster effort is an ominous sign for a team that already struggles on defense. Los Verdiblancos have allowed the third-most goals in the league — and they have second-to-last in goals allowed when playing at home. Real Betis managed to generate just 0.49 expected goals in their loss at Sevilla — and they are averaging just 1.14 expected goals over their last six matches. To compound matters, Los Verdiblancos will be without striker Juanmi Jimenez and midfielder Javi Garcia who are dealing with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: Granada is generating a healthy 1.68 expected goals over their last six contests. They won the reverse fixture between these two teams on October 27th by a 1-0 score. Granada has a good chance to pull the upset — and a draw has a high likelihood of occurring in this contest as well — making the visitors an intriguing proposition at +0.5 goals. 10* La Liga Monday Afternoon Discounted Deal with the Granada CF (201845) plus the goal-line versus Real Betis (201846). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-15-20 |
Sevilla -1 v. Levante |
|
1-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
0 h 5 m |
Show
|
At 1:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Sevilla (201841) minus the goal-line versus Levante (201842). THE SITUATION: Sevilla (W14-D8-L6) remained unbeaten in their last five matches in La Liga play with their 2-0 victory over Real Betis on Thursday. Levante (W10-D4-L14) returned to action on Friday with a 1-1 draw at Valencia.
REASONS TO TAKE SEVILLA MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Sevilla allowed just one shot on net on Thursday to register that clean sheet. They dominated the expected goals (xG) with them punching out a 2.23 xG number while holding Real Betis to just 0.49 xG. I passed on this match with their leading scorer, Lucas Ocampo, in doubt for that match with an injury. Not only did he play, but he also scored in his fifth straight match to break the scoreless deadlock in the 56th minute on a penalty kick. Los Nervionenses have now scored in twenty straight league matches. This is a side that has lost three of their matches to Barcelona and Real Madrid — which leaves them with an absolutely dominant record against the rest of La Liga while making a strong case that they are the third-best team in the league. Levante has only won twice in their last ten matches while scoring a mere eight goals in that span. They return home where they have defeated Barcelona and Real Madrid — but they will not be playing on their home pitch at the Estadi Ciutat de Valencia. Instead, the Frogs will be playing their remaining home matches nearly 100 miles away at Estadio Camilo Cano in Lamana. Frankly, I could not determine the exact reason for the shift since the only articles I could find on the subject were written in Spanish — I suspect this is a COVID-19 related issue. But, most importantly for our purposes, Levante will have zero home-field edge since they are playing in an unfamiliar stadium with no fan support. The Frogs are also undermanned for this match with leading scorer Roger Marti suspended for this match after getting issued a red card last week. Defenseman Ivan Lopez is also out the rest of the season with a knee injury. Levante is a team that is last in the league with 51.80 expected goals allowed which are well beyond the 41 goals they have surrendered. And while they have given up only 12 goals as the home team, the Frogs’ expected goals allowed mark at home rises to a 20.68 mark. Levante’s good fortune on defense this season is much of the reason why they are tied for the 3rd worst expected points (xPTS) on the season despite being tied for 11th in the standings of the twenty-team La Liga.
FINAL TAKE: Sevilla won the reverse fixture between these two teams back on October 20th by a 1-0 score. With Los Nervionenses looking to secure one of the four top spots in the standings to qualify for next year’s Champions League while Levante is in no man's land in the middle of the table comfortably above the relegation zone but too many points away from challenging for the final qualifying spot for the Europa League, expect a more motivated Sevilla side to dominate. 20* La Liga Sevilla-Levante beIN Sports Special with the Sevilla (201841) minus the goal-line versus Levante (201842). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Osasuna v. Real Sociedad -0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-136 |
1 h 42 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). THE SITUATION: Real Sociedad (W14-D4-L9) returns to the pitch for the first time this afternoon since their 2-1 win at Eibar back on March 10th. Osasuna (W8-D10-L9) also comes off a victory when they last played in March with their 1-0 win over Espanyol.
REASONS TO TAKE REAL SOCIEDAD MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: La Real was playing very good football before the stoppage of play three months ago. They had won seven of their last eight matches with five of those contests being in La Liga action with the lone loss being to first-place Barcelona. Manager Imanol Alguacil’s side began the week tied for 4th place with a very real opportunity to qualify for the Champions League by finishing in the top four in the league. La Real is a young and vibrant team that plays an attractive form of football. The underlying metrics suggest they deserve the success they have achieved this season. Their net expected goal differential is 5th best in La Liga. They have registered clean sheets in seven of their fourteen victories in league play. They also have very tough to beat at home at Reale Arena where they have won seven straight contests including their last four against La Liga opponents. Real Sociedad is tied for second in the league with 27 goals scored — and they have generated at least 2.48 expected goals in five of their last six games at home. They also rank 2nd in the league in expected goals allowed in league play when playing at home. La Real has only surrendered three goals at home in their last seven home games. Additionally, they have won five of their last seven home games against teams in the bottom half of the La Liga table. Osasuna is in 11th place in the twenty-team league. Motivation may be an issue for this midlevel side that is 9 points clear of the relegation zone but 8 points outside qualifying for the Europa League. They had lost five of their last six contests before their win over Espanyol in their final game before COVID-19 forced cancellations. Los Rojillos had scored only nine goals in their nine matches played in 2020. They now go back on the road where they have won just once in their last five games. Osasuna plays much better on their home pitch where they have a +10.4 net expected goal differential — but in their thirteen road matches in La Liga they are burdened with a -8.6 net expected goal differential. Just 33% of their expected goals this season have occurred away from home. They have also allowed at least two goals in four of their last six games on the road. To make matters even worse, there may not be a La Liga team that returns to action so far from full strength as Los Rojillos. Ruben Garcia is suspended for this match from his actions back in March. Kike Barja, Fran Merida, Robert Ibanev, Facundo Roncaglia, and Chimy Avila are all dealing with injuries which place their status to play in doubt. Osasuna is not a team with the luxury of depth. They were promoted to La Liga this season after winning the Segunda Division last year.
FINAL TAKE: Real Sociedad has won the last three meetings between these two teams as they followed up their 4-3 victory on league play in December with a 3-1 victory on January 29th in a Copa del Rey match. Osasuna has not defeated Real Sociedad in the Spanish top-flight competition since May of 2012. With Real Sociedad much closer to full strength and with much to play for still, expect them to earn the victory. 25* La Liga Sunday beIN Sports-TV Match of the Year with Real Sociedad (201814) minus the goal-line versus Osasuna (201813). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen -1 v. Schalke 04 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-119 |
3 h 43 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W17-D5-L8) bounced-back from a 4-2 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Saturday with a 3-0 victory over FC Saarbrucken on Tuesday in the Semifinals of the DFB Pokal Cup. FC Schalke 04 (W9-D11-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Schalke is probably playing the worst soccer in the Bundesliga right now — that was their first point on Sunday in their five matches in the return to action last month. They have only scored twice in those five games while conceding 11 times — and they have only won the expected goals advanced metrics battle once in those five contests. The Royal Blues are now winless in their last twelve matches while generating a mere 5 points over that span. Schalke was probably overachieving relative to the deeper shot numbers they were putting up earlier in the season — but the Regression Gods have finally paid a visit to this team. They have only scored four goals in their twelve matches since their last victory back on January 17th. Manager David Wagner did embrace a youth movement in the middle of the season — but the former Huddersfield manager in the English Premier League has been rumored to have lost the locker room. Schalke certainly fits the prototype of a team that has nothing to play for with them being now 5 points out of the last Europa League qualifying spot in the Bundesliga but being safe from relegation. The Royal Blues are simply not showing much ambition on offense. Their leading scorer is Suat Serder with seven goals which are not a good sign considering that he is a holding midfielder dedicated mostly to playing defense. Schalke has been held scoreless in eight of their last twelve matches. The Royal Blues have also not had a clean sheet since February. They return home to Veltins-Arena where they have the second-lowest expected goals total. And they will also be undermanned for this match with Serder along with Amine Harit, Omar Mascerell, and Guido Burostailer all out with injuries. Bayer Leverkusen has not been great in the return to action last month as they have lost two of their six matches across all competitions. But Die Werkself has still won six of their last eight league matches along with ten of their last fourteen games in the Bundesliga. They have scored in nineteen straight matches whole posting a healthy 21 goals in their last eight league contests. This team should remain very motivated to earn 3 points with the win considering that they are tied for 3rd place in the table — and they have a huge opportunity to pull ahead of Borussia Monchengladbach after they lost at Bayern Munich yesterday to ensure one of the top four spots to qualify for next year’s Champions League. Die Werkself have played better on the road this season with ten victories in their fifteen league matches away from home. They are tied for 2nd place in total points on the road.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen will also get two key players back on the pitch for this contest. Their 20-year old superstar Kai Havertz has been dealing with an injury but he appears healthy enough to return for this match. He had scored five goals since the return to play last month. And the team’s star striker Kevin Holland is set to return for this first time since the stoppage of play. Die Werkself won the reverse fixture between these two teams by a 2-1 score back on December 7th. Expect a dominant win against a Schalke team that seems to have packed it in for the proverbial beach. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Bayer Leverkusen (202409) minus the goal-line versus FC Schalke 04 (202410). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-14-20 |
FC Augsburg v. Mainz UNDER 2.75 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Augsburg (202413) and FSV Mainz 05 (2-2414). THE SITUATION: Augsburg (W8-D8-L14) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to FC Koln last Sunday. FSV Mainz (W9-D4-L17) looks to build off a 2-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Augsburg has only won twice in their last twelve matches. Their defense has not been the problem since the return to play last month as they have allowed only five goals in their five matches. But Fuggerstadter has scored only five times in those matches as well. Even worse, Augsburg has scored just once in their last three matches after being shutout in their prior two matches before scoring last Sunday against Koln. Fuggerstadter has scored only eight times going back to their last ten matches while being blanked five times over that span. Now they go back on the road where they have scored just 15 times in their fifteen matches which are tied for the second-lowest tally in the league. While Augsburg has lost six of their last seven road matches, they have scored only four times in those games. FSV Mainz has only scored five times in their last five matches since the return to action. But manager Achim Beieriorzer should feel good about his team’s improves play on defense last week as they held limited Frankfurt to just 0.44 expected goals in their clean sheet victory. Die Nullfunfer stays at home where they have scored just 15 times in fifteen matches which is also the second-lowest mark in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Both of these teams are fighting to stave off elimination with Augsburg four points above the relegation zone and Mainz just one point behind them. A victory would be great for either team while a loss would be devastating. The one point coming from a draw would be acceptable. Because of these implications, both teams are likely to play cautiously for much of this match. Expect a lower-scoring contest. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Augsburg (202413) and FSV Mainz 05 (2-2414). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach v. Bayern Munich UNDER 3.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202401) and Bayern Munich (202402). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L8) looks to bounce back from their 1-0 loss at Freiburg last Friday on June 5th. Bayern Munich (W22-D4-L4) followed up their 4-2 win at Bayer Leverkusen last Saturday with a 2-1 victory at home over Eintracht Frankfurt on Wednesday in the Semifinals of the DFB-Pokal Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: The Bavarians will be undermanned in this match with both Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller suspended for this match after receiving infractions last week in league play. Bayern Munich will also be without winger Serge Gnabry who has been enjoying a breakthrough season this year. Those three scores account for 50 of the 90 goals that the Bavarians have scored this season. And while manager Hansi Flick has the luxury of a very talented roster from which to replace those players for this match, the cohesion for this team on the pitch remains a question without the glue from which Lewandowski with his 30 goals and Muller with his 20 assists offers. But Bayern Munich should remain very tough to score on — they have allowed only five goals in their last six matches. They stay at home at the Allianz Arena where they are tied for the best mark in expected goals allowed. Borussia Monchengladbach has only scored nine goals in their five matches since the return to action — but they have surrendered just seven goals in that span. They will also be undermanned in this contest with forward Alassane Plea suspended for this contest after receiving a red card in that loss to Freiburg. Plea has great chemistry with 22-year old forward Marcus Thuram — so his absence will derail the cohesion that Thuram has enjoyed up top on the pitch. Additionally, the Foals may be without striker Breel Embolo who is in doubt with a calf injury.
FINAL TAKE: Borussia Monchengladbach is tied for 4th best in the Bundesliga in fewest goals allowed — and they rank 3rd in the league in fewest goals allowed on the road. The Foals defeated Bayern Munich in the reverse fixture by a 2-1 score back on December 7th. With both teams missing some of their best offensive players, expect a lower scoring match. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202401) and Bayern Munich (202402). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-13-20 |
Eintracht Frankfurt v. Hertha Berlin -0.25 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-124 |
0 h 2 m |
Show
|
AAt 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202590) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (202589). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L12) looks to bounce back from their 1-0 loss at Borussia Dortmund last Saturday. Eintracht Frankfurt (W10-D5-L15) followed up a 2-0 loss last Saturday at home against Mainz with a 2-1 loss on Wednesday at Bayern Munich in the Semifinals of the DFB-Poval Cup.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Old Lady had been unbeaten in their previous six matches since the return to play last month before suffering that loss to the second-place team in the Bundesliga. Yet Hertha Berlin remains W3-D1-L1 in their last five matches while outscoring those opponents by an 11-3 margin. They had averaged 2.0 expected goals in their first four matches back before getting stymied by Borussia Dortmund — and they had scored at least two goals in six straight contests before Saturday’s setback. Now they return home to Olympia Stadion where they have an expected goal mark of 4.85 in their previous two matches since the return to play last month. They will be catching a tired Eintracht Frankfurt side that will be playing their fourth match in eleven days. The Eagles did not fare well last Saturday when playing with just two days rest in-between after a midweek contest as they were dominated on their home pitch to FSV Mainz in that 2-0 loss as they managed only 0.44 expected goals while allowing 3.23 expected goals. In their last eight league matches, Eintracht Frankfurt has allowed their opponent to register at least 2.0 expected goals (based on the quality of their opponent’s shots) in five of those contests. They have only one clean sheet in their last nine games while surrendering a league-worst 29 goals over that span. Now they go back on the road where they have lost ten of their fifteen matches this season including their last two contests. They will be undermanned for this contest as well. 29-year old midfielder Sebastian Rode is out for this contest after getting called for his fifth yellow card last week. Leading scorer Gonzalo Paciencia and defensive midfielder Gelson Fernandes are also doubts for this match with injuries.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture between these two clubs back on December 6th. But Eintracht Frankfurt remains winless in their last four matches against Hertha Berlin. Die Alte Dame is 3 points ahead of the Eagles in 8th place in the Bundesliga table as they remain alive to claim the final qualifying spot for the Europa League next fall. 10* Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt-Hertha Berlin FS2-TV Special with the Hertha Berlin (202590) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (202589). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-20 |
Levante v. Valencia OVER 2.75 |
Top |
1-1 |
Loss |
-118 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
|
At 4:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). THE SITUATION: Levante (W10-D3-L14) returns to the pitch in the Spanish top-flight professional soccer league after last eking out a 1-1 draw at home to Granada back on March 8th. Valencia (W11-D9-L7) followed up a 1-1 draw at Deportivo Alaves on March 6th in their last La Liga by losing at home to Atalanta by a 4-3 score in an empty stadium to end their Champions League run in the Round of 16 with an aggregate 8-4 loss.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Valencia’s Champions League campaign is now complete this season but manager Albert Celades will be trying to motivate his team to qualify for next year’s European championship as they are 4 points out of the last qualifying position in the La Liga table. Los Che hosts this match in front of an empty stadium where they have scored 23 times which is 6th best in the league — and they have scored in fifteen straight matches on their home pitch. Those offensive numbers are right-in-line with their overall scoring marks as they are 6th in La Liga with 38 goals scored. However, where this team has taken a step back from last year’s Copa Del Rey championship team under previous manager Marcelino is on the defensive end of the pitch. They have surrendered 39 goals in league play this season — but that mark rises to 43.83 expected goals allowed (xGA) per match which is the 3rd highest mark in La Liga in that metric. They have only registered seven clean sheets this season while allowing 15 shots per match. While they rank tied for 6th in the league in the fewest goals allowed at home, their expected goals allowed when playing at home is the 4th worst mark in La Liga. Their backline is also being reconfigured for this match with Ezequiel Garay and Gabriel Paulista both dealing with knocks that will keep them out for this match. Levante has allowed the 5th most goals in La Liga but they rank last in the league with an xGA mark of 2.17 per game. They also are last in La Liga in xGA when playing on the road. They have allowed at least two goals in five straight league matches away from home. But manager Paco Lopez’s counter-attacking approach has resulted in them scoring in nine of their last thirteen matches on the road. 59% of Granotas’ matches this season have gone Over 2.5 combined goals — and they have played eight of their last nine matches on the road Over 2.5 (so the worst-case scenario for this match should be a Push with the Total set at 3 in most spots).
FINAL TAKE: This Valencia Derby is typically a higher-scoring affair. The last four meetings between these two teams have seen 18 combined goals after Valencia won the reverse fixture between these two teams in December by a 4-2 score in a wild affair with sloppy defense where Los Che rallying from a 2-0 deficit. Valencia has scored at least three goals in their last four opportunities to host Levante in this rivalry. 25* La Liga Friday beIN Sports-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Levante (201825) and Valencia (201826). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-12-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. Hoffenheim OVER 3.5 |
Top |
2-0 |
Loss |
-111 |
3 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W16-D11-L3) enters this match coming off a 1-1 draw at home to Paderborn last Saturday. Hoffenheim (W12-D7-L11) also comes off a draw on Saturday in their 2-2 result at Fortuna Dusseldorf.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: It was another frustrating result for the Red Bulls who have settled for seven draws in their last eleven matches despite not losing any of those league contests. RB Leipzig has scored thirteen goals in their five matches since the return to action last month. But while they have surrendered the second-fewest goals in the Bundesliga, they have given up five goals in their last three matches. The defensive cohesion of this team will be stretched for this contest after center back Dayot Upamecano being suspended for this match after he was issued a red card in that draw with Paderborn. Look for the Red Bulls’ scoring attack led by Timo Werner to be their catalyst for this match. RB Leipzig has scored 27 goals in their last thirteen matches — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals (xG) scored. This team also leads the Bundesliga in xG when playing away from home this season after finding the back of the net nine times in their two matches on the road since the return to play. Hoffenheim reacted to their loss on Saturday by sacking their manager Alfred Schreuder. Disagreements in philosophy were explained as the reason for his firing with ownership frustrated with the underwhelming attack coming from this side. Die Kraichgauer has seen thirteen different players score this season but they are just tied for 9th place in the league in goals scored. The tactics for this match should see Hoffenheim play with even more aggressive and attacking flourish. They will also benefit from the return to the pitch of Andrej Kramaric who was a sub on Saturday after being out since March with an injury. Kramaric leads the team with seven goals this year. But the increased emphasis on scoring tactics will place even more pressure on the Die Kraichgauer defense that ranks 7th in the Bundesliga with the highest expected goals allowed (xGA). When playing at home, Hoffenheim has allowed the 4th most goals which are right-in-line with their 4th highest xGA on their home pitch at Rhein-Neckar-Arena. To compound matters, they will be without their captain and center back Benjamin Hubner quarterbacking their backline after he was issued a red card last Saturday in the 9th minute of that match. This spells trouble against RB Leipzig. Hoffenheim has allowed 39 goals this season inside the penalty area — and the Red Bulls have an XG of 27.60 this season in that area of the field. Die Kraichgauer has scored in ten of their last twelve matches at home so they should contribute to reaching the Over for this match.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig manager Julian Nagelsmann was the manager at Hoffenheim for the previous four seasons before getting banned by the Red Bulls last summer — so he will understand the defensive talent of Die Kraichgauer. The Red Bulls won the last meeting between these two teams back on December 7th in their 3-1 victory in a game where the expected combined goals were 5.1. The last eight contests between these two sides have seen 29 combined goals. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202405) and Hoffenheim (202406). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-10-20 |
Eintracht Frankfurt v. Bayern Munich -2.5 |
Top |
1-2 |
Loss |
-103 |
16 h 59 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). THE SITUATION: The DFB-Pokal Cup is the national championship of the German professional leagues and considered the second most prestigious championship to the Bundesliga title in Germany. Bayern Munich reached the Semifinals of the DFB-Pokal back on March 3rd with their 1-0 win at FC Schalke 04. Eintracht Frankfurt joined them a day later with their 2-0 win at home against Werder Bremen in the quarterfinals of this event. Bayern Munich hosts this contest in their Allianz Arena.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH: The Bavarians are cruising their way to their eighth straight Bundesliga title after defeating Bayer Leverkusen on the road on Saturday by a 4-2 score. The Bavarians may be playing the best soccer in Europe since manager Hansi Flick took over the team in November. Flick moved Joshua Kimmich from the backline to a defensive midfield slot which jumpstarted the team’s defensive acumen on the pitch. Not only is Kimmich a dynamic player that gives his more room to shine in the middle of the field but this move opened up space for Phonzie to get more playing time — and the Canadian has thrived as a starting fullback. Bayern Munich is now W23-D1-L2 in their twenty-six matches under Flick in all competitions. Since the return to action last month, the Bavarians have won all five of their matches while scoring 17 goals and allowing just four goals while facing two of the top four teams in the Bundesliga in Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. They now host this match where they are unbeaten in their last ten matches with nine victories. The Bavarians have averaged 5.0 goals per game in their two matches at home since the return to acton while conceding only two goals. While asking even the best of teams to win by at least three goals is asking a lot, there are a few unique circumstances that make a Bayern Munich blowout likely. Their two strikers, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller will be suspended for their Bundesliga match this weekend after both received their fifth yellow cards of the season last week in league play. Flick will likely keep both players on the pitch for most if not all of this match since they will be unavailable for the weekend. Flick also has his star central midfielder back in Thiago who has missed time with a groin strain. The Spaniard is one of the best passers in the world — and he has gelled with Kimmich since the later was moved up into the midfield. Eintracht Frankfurt looks to bounce-back from a bad 2-0 loss at home to FSV Mainz 05 last Saturday. The expected goals project had Mainz scoring 3.23 xG while allowing just 0.44 xGA — so that result could have been even worse. Die Adler is safe from relegation in the German top flight but they are in the bottom half of the table tied for 11th place. They have lost three of their six matches since the return to action while allowing 14 goals in those games. They have surrendered 22 goals in their last eight matches. They go back on the road where they have been miserable with ten losses in their fifteen league contests. To compound matters, this team will be missing some key pieces for this showdown. Serbian winger, Filip Kostic, is suspended for this match after getting tabbed with a four-game suspension in Eintracht Frankfurt’s last DFB-Pokal match in March. Die Adler is also dealing with two injuries with their leading scorer Gonzalo Paciencia and defensive midfielder Gelson Fernandes both dealing with knocks.
FINAL TAKE: There is little chance Bayern Munich will take this match lightly since Eintracht Frankfurt defeated them by a 5-1 score back on November 2nd which was the final straw for their previous manager Niko Kovac. The Bavarians got their revenge from that loss on May 23rd with a 5-2 win at home against Die Adler — but Flick’s team will remember that half the goals they have allowed since the return to action came in that match. This is a single-elimination match so there is no consolation for a close loss — meaning Eintracht Frankfurt will need to be more aggressive if and when they fall behind in this match. Expect a blowout with Lewandowski and Muller likely to be on the pitch for a long time given they are suspended their next league match. 25* Soccer ESPN Match of the Year with the Bayern Munich (203006) minus the goal-line versus Eintracht Frankfurt (2023005). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-07-20 |
1. FC Koln v. FC Augsburg |
|
1-1 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 21 m |
Show
|
At 12 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing FC Koln (202561) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202562). THE SITUATION: FC Koln (W10-D4-L15) looks to bounce back from their 4-2 loss at home to RB Leipzig on Monday. Augsburg (W8-D7-L14) also looks to rebound from a 2-0 loss at Hertha Berlin last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE FC KOLN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Koln has been rather unlucky to be just W0-D2-L2 in their four matches since the return to action — yet they have won the expected goals battle in three of these matches. They have scored at least two goals in three of their last four matches including against the Red Bulls defense that is the second stingiest in the league to Bayern Munich in surrendering goals. The Billy Goats are in 12th place with 34 points in the German top-flight table — but their expected points (xPTS) based off the analysis of their expected goals scored (xG) and allowed this season (xGA) projects that they should have 39.83 points which are 8th best in the league. FC Koln has played better away from home as of late where they have won two of their last four matches while going W3-D1-L3 in their last seven contests. And while they have just 13 points away from home in league play which is tied for the 5th worst mark, their expected points when playing on the road ranks 9th best in the Bundesliga. Augsburg has won only twice in their last eleven matches. They have only 4 points in their last five matches — and they have just 11 points in their last fourteen contests. They have been held scoreless in their last two matches in league play — and they have scored only seven goals in their last nine matches while failing to score in five of these games. Frankly, this is a side that would be likely doomed to relegation if not for a surprising six-game winning streak that started late in the fall. Fuggerstadter opened the season with only 7 points in their last ten matches before going on that six-game hot streak. But Augsburg has reverted to that early season form and now find themselves just 3 points out of the final relegation spot. They host this match at Mungersdorfer Stadium where they have won just once in their last five contests.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture back on November 30th. While the Fuggerstadter has more to play for fighting off relegation, the Billy Goats have been the much better team according to the deeper metrics but have been snake bit with their results. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Afternoon Discounted Deal with FC Koln (202561) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202562). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-20 |
Hertha Berlin v. Borussia Dortmund UNDER 3.5 |
|
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Hertha Berlin (202581) and Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch — but don’t sit on their improved play on the defensive end of the pitch. While surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches under Labbadia’s stewardship. The improved play from the Old Lady should also be attributed to the January signing of former RB Leipzig forward Matheus Cunha who has stepped in to score four goals in his eight matches with the club — but he is a doubt for this match as he recovers from a concussion. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season. While Borussia Dortmund has seen their expected goals output decline in the second half of the season, their play on defense has improved with manager Lucien Favre adding a third defender to his backline. Over their last ten matches, the Black-Yellows are holding their opponents to just 0.87 xGA per contest while not allowing higher than 1.40 expected goals in nine of those matches. Borussia Dortmund has conceded just 11 goals at home at Signal Idun Park which is the lowest mark in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. With the Total set in the 3.5 range, expect another lower scoring game. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between Hertha Berlin (202581) and Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-06-20 |
Hertha Berlin +1.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W10-D8-L11) is unbeaten in their last six matches after they defeated Augsburg last Saturday by a 2-0 score. Borussia Dortmund (W18-D6-L5) bounced-back from their loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday with their 6-1 victory at Paderborn.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Alte Dame has been one of the best teams in the Bundesliga since the return to action last month as they are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches with eleven goals scored and just two goals conceded. Their expected goal differential of +0.79 net xG is 4th best in the league over that span. Manager Bruno Labbadia was appointed in April to take over this team and he has them playing with more spirit along with offensive punch. While scoring just 1.31 expected goals (xG) and surrendering 1.63 xGA before the stoppage of play, Hertha Berlin has averaged 2.03 xGF and allowed just 1.24 xGA in their four matches with an impressive +1.11 expected goal differential under Labbadia’s stewardship. Two additions in the transfer window have also played a big role for this side with Matheus Cunha and Krzysztof Piatek. While Cunha is a doubt to play this week as he deals with a concussion, that should ensure that Piatek starts up top alongside captain Vedad Ibisevic. The pricey Polish star from AC Milan scored the final goal in their win over Augsburg last week in the third minute of extended time after 90 minutes had passed. Hertha Berlin has scored at least two goals in six straight matches while tallying 16 goals over that span. They go back on the road where they have not lost in seven matches which includes an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig two matches ago. Borussia Dortmund entered halftime with a nil-nil score before exploding for six goals in the second half against a Paderborn side playing loose since they need points to avoid relegation. The Black-Yellows got a shot in the arm with the improved play of Jadon Sancho who scored three times in that second half. The 20-year old had been out of shape in the first few weeks of return to the pitch after being in self-quarantine for two months. Yet bettors should not read too much in his return to fitness as Borussia Dortmund has been an overachieving side this season. While they are 2nd in the league with 60 points, their expected points (xPTS) drop to just 54.53. This team has been very fortunate on offense as they have scored 80 times despite having an expected goals mark of just 57.18. They have scored 18 times in their last eighteen matches before last week’s second-half explosion — but they had failed to gain at least a 1.50 xG mark in any of those matches with their expected goals being just over half of that at a 9.02 mark before their trip to Paderborn. They return home where they have scored 45 times — but they have just 31.68 expected goals in those fourteen matches. BVB also is dealing with a host of injuries for this match headlined by 19-year forward sensation Erling Haaland along with captain Marcos Reus dealing with knocks — and center defenseman Matt Hummels is suspected for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card of the season.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin played Borussia Dortmund tight in the reverse fixture between these two sides back on November 30th which resulted in a narrow 2-1 loss. That match was before the arrivals of Labbadia as manager along with Cunha and Piatek as transfers — and while Cunha may not play in this match, the betting market has not caught up to the dramatic improvements Die Alte Dame has made in the second half of the season. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Hertha Berlin (202581) plus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202582). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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06-06-20 |
Bayern Munich v. Bayer Leverkusen OVER 3.5 |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (202565) and Bayer Leverkusen (202566). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W21-D4-L4) has won fourteen of their last fifteen matches across all competitions after their 5-0 win over Fortuna Dusseldorf last Saturday. Bayer Leverkusen (W17-D5-L7) has won six of their last seven contests with their 1-0 win at Freiburg last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Bavarians did not take their foot off the accelerator after defeating Borussia Dortmund in their previous contest which gave them a commanding 7 point lead in first place in the Bundesliga standings. They dominated Dusseldorf with manager Hansi Flick still using his first-string players. Bayern Munich now needs just three more victories to clinch their eighth straight Bundesliga title — and Flick seems like he wants his team to maintain their momentum to prepare for the return of the Champions League in August. The Bavarians may be playing the best soccer in Europe since Flick took over the team in November. Flick moved Joshua Kimmich from the backline to a defensive midfield slot which jumpstarted the team’s defensive acumen on the pitch. Not only is Kimmich a dynamic player that gives his more room to shine in the middle of the field but this move opened up space for Phonzie to get more playing time — and the Canadian has thrived as a starting fullback. Bayern Munich is W16-D2-L1 in their nineteen matches under Flick while averaging 2.98 expected goals which is over half a goal better than their 2.45 xGF mark in their ten matches in league play before Flick’s appointment. The Bavarians have won seven straight matches on the road with 2.68 expected goals scored in those matches. Since the return to play last month, Bayern Munich has scored 13 times. Bayer Leverkusen was listless in their effort last week against Freiburg as they managed only 0.43 expected goals while allowing them a 0.78 xG. That was the second straight match where Die Werkself lost the expected goals battle as they were dominated by Wolfsburg by a 1.71 xGF - 3.00 xGA mark in their previous contests. Bayer Leverkusen has demonstrated some vulnerabilities on the defensive end of the pitch as they have allowed goals in seven of their last nine matches along with nine of their last twelve contests. The better teams in the league have particularly exposed the Die Werkself backline as Wolfsburg and Borussia Monchengladbach combined for 5.29 expected goals.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich should be motivated to avenge two straight losses to Bayer Leverkusen as they followed up their 3-1 loss to them in February of 2019 with a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture this season on November 30th. Both those matches were before Flick’s appointment to the Bavarians. Expect another higher scoring match. 10* Bundesliga Bayern Munich-Bayer Leverkusen FS1-TV O/U Special with the Over the Total in the match between Bayern Munich (202565) and Bayer Leverkusen (202566). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach v. SC Freiburg OVER 2.75 |
|
0-1 |
Loss |
-117 |
10 h 39 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) and Freiburg (202550). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year — and with goal-differential being the first tie-breaker, manager Marco Rose will want his team to keep their foot on the accelerator if they are winning this match. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. But their defense has not been at their best since the return to play as they have allowed 1.5 goals per game in their four contests. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. This team has not produced a clean sheet since September — and they need to go for broke to gain the potential 3 points with a victory since they are 4 points out of 6th place which is the last qualifier for the Europa League next year. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches — they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense when playing in that formation in 557 minutes this season.
FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. Look for another higher-scoring contest with both teams having something at stake. 10* Bundesliga Friday Afternoon O/U Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) and Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-05-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach -0.5 v. SC Freiburg |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-127 |
11 h 51 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W17-D5-L7) comes off a 4-1 win over Union Berlin last Sunday. Freiburg (W10-D8-L11) looks to rebound from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayer Leverkusen last Friday.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Monchengladbach is W2-D1-L1 in their four matches since the return to action after their decisive victory on Sunday. With them tied for 4th place in the Bundesliga standings with Bayer Leverkusen, they have plenty to play for with only the top four teams in the league qualifying for the Champions League next year. The forwards of the Foals have found cohesion as of late with Marcus Thuram scoring twice in their last match with Alassane Plea adding another goal in their three-goal victory. With six players who have scored at least five goals this season, the balanced attack of Borussia Monchengladbach has generated at least two expected goals (based off the xG metric) in seven of their last ten matches. Die Fohlen ranks 3rd in the league in expected goals scored for the season — and they have scored 14 goals over their last seven matches. Now they go back on the road where they are W7-D3-L4 while going unbeaten in their last five matches with three victories and two draws while posting a net expected goals margin of +3.87 in those contests. Borussia Monchengladbach is tied for 2nd in the Bundesliga with only 15 goals allowed in their fourteen league matches away from home. Freiburg has only won once in their last eight matches — and they have just three wins in 2020. Since returning to play last month, they are W0-D2-L2 while scoring just four times. The advanced metrics indicate this is the most overvalued team in Bundesliga. While they are tied for 8th place with 38 points, their expected points (xPTS) plummets to just 13th in the league at 32.28. They have been outscored by three goals this season that betrays their record where they have won ten of their nineteen league matches — but their expected goals net differential of -17.73 screams of regression. They have averaged just 1.00 expected goals scored over their last ten matches with that mark dropping to just 0.70 xG over their four matches since the return from quarantine which is the worst mark in the Bundesliga. Now they stay at home where they have lost five of their last seven matches. Freiburg ranks tied for 3rd in the league with just 16 goals allowed when playing at home — but their xGA jumps to 19.97 expected goals allowed at home in the Black Forest which is just 9th best. This side has generated only 6 points in their last eight matches. Manager Christian Streich has gone back to a standard 4-4-2 formation with only two forwards up top over their last three matches yet they have a -5.94 net expected goals margin in those contests. This maneuver has not sparked this team. In their 557 minutes playing in a 4-4-2, Freiburg is producing just a 0.90 xG mark — and they have a 1.86 xGA mark on defense.
FINAL TAKE: The last league meeting between these two teams resulted in a 4-2 victory for Borussia Monchengladbach where they had 23 shots with 17 of them within the 18-yard box. The metrics indicated this was a dominant performance for Gladbach with their expected goals being at 4.87 and their xGA being just 1.54. The Foals then won both friendlies between these two clubs on successive days in early January. With Borussia Monchengladbach needing to win this match to maintain their Champions League aspirations next year, expect them to pull out the victory on the road in an empty stadium. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Year with the Borussia Monchengladbach (202549) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
06-01-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. 1. FC Koln OVER 3.25 |
Top |
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 37 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W15-D10-L3) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw against Hertha Berlin on Wednesday. FC Koln (W10-D4-L14) looks to rebound from a 3-1 loss at Hoffenheim last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: RB Leipzig is unbeaten in their last nine matches — but they have only secured three victories over that span. They have scored eight times in their three matches since the return to action in May — and they have the highest expected goal (xG) mark in the league over that span. They have also scored 22 goals over their last eleven matches. The Red Bulls are 3rd in the league with 70 goals scored — and their expected goals mark is 2nd best in the Bundesliga. They also have the most expected goals when playing on the road. RB Leipzig is also an excellent defensive team but they will be without starting left full-back Marcel Halstenberg who is suspended for this match. Koln has allowed seven goals in their three matches since the return of play. The Billy Goats have been inconsistent in these games perhaps not fully motivated since they are mired in the middle of the standings — safe from relegation but unlikely to be able to move up to the 6th spot to qualify for the Europa League next year. Koln blew a two-goal lead in their opening match against Mainz before rallying from a two-goal deficit as a home favorite to eke out a 2-2 draw with lowly Fortuna Dusseldorf. Then on Wednesday, the Billy Goats fell behind by a 3-0 score before getting their offense going — and they ended that match with an xG of 2.24. And despite scoring only four goals in their three matches in May, they ranked 2nd in the Bundesliga with 7.4 expected goals (2.56 xG/match) which is second only to RB Leipzig in that metric.
FINAL TAKE: FC Koln will be looking to avenge a 4-1 loss at RB Leipzig back on November 23rd. Their attacker, Cordoba, has scored nine of his 11 goals at home this season while RB Leipzig’s Timo Werner has scored 14 of his 24 goals on the road. Expect a wild, higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Monday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202517) and FC Koln (202518). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-20 |
Borussia Dortmund v. SC Paderborn 07 UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
6-1 |
Loss |
-140 |
8 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). THE SITUATION: Borussia Dortmund (W21-D4-L4) enters this match looking to bounce back from a 1-0 loss at home to Bayern Munich last Tuesday. Paderborn (W4-D7-L14) is winless in their last nine matches after pulling out a nil-nil draw at Augsburg on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Borussia Dortmund was stymied by the Bayern Munich defense as they registered a low 0.57 expected goal (xG) mark in their loss on Tuesday which dropped them to 7 points out of first place. Look for the BVB to be flat in this match. This team’s scoring prowess has declined significantly as of late even before playing the Bavarians. While Borussia Dortmund ranks 2nd to them with 74 goals scored, their expected goals on the season based on the deeper analytics plummets to just 52.68 which not only ranks just 5th in the league but also represents the biggest discrepancy between actual and expected goals. So this team was due a visit from the Regression Gods — and it appears these deities have made their presence known since the return to play this month. The Black-Yellows have scored only six combined goals over their three May matches — and yet their expected goals in these games translate into just 2.78 xGF over those contests for a microscopic 0.93 xGF per match. Regression only explains part of that massive drop off. Jordan Sancho plays a critical part in the offensive attack — but the 20-year old did not respond to self-quarantine in the same way many older professionals have. Sancho returned this month lacking so much fitness that manager Lucien Favre has chosen not to start him. Sancho did substitute in the second half against Bayern Munich on Tuesday but he is a step or two slow which neutralizes the dynamic skillset he displayed earlier in the season. To compound matters for this team’s offensive attack, not only have then been without captain Marcos Reus on their forward line but they will now be without 19-year old forward phenom Erling Haaland who is now out with a knee injury. Borussia Dortmund has seen a steady improvement in their defensive play in the second half of the season. BVB has clean sheets in two of their last three matches along with five of their last seven. They have limited their last eight opponents to just 0.87 expected goals. They go on the road where they rank tied for 9th with 23 goals allowed — but their xGA away from home improves to the 3rd best ranking in the Bundesliga. Paderborn may be in last place in the German top flight but they have pulled out three draws in their three matches since the return of play while generating two clean sheets and allowing only one goal. But they have only scored one time over that span of three matches. Manager Steffen Baumgart had his team playing a direct style which would go toe-to-toe with the top teams in the league — but quarantine must have had him hit the tape because his group has played very cautiously since returning to the pitch. In their three matches this month, Paderborn had held their opponents to just 1.12 expected goals per match which are far below their 1.86 xGA for the season. But they are averaging only 1.00 expected goals this month — and they have a low 0.82 xG mark over their last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will struggle to score in this match — not only do they rank 16th in the league in expected goals at home (versus being tied for 12th in actual goals at home) and they host a Dortmund side that are tied in 9th in goals allowed on the road but who rank 3rd in xGA in goals against away from home. 25* Bundesliga Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Borussia Dortmund (202529) and Paderborn (202530). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-31-20 |
Union Berlin v. Borussia Monchengladbach -1 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Borussia Monchengladbach (202522) minus the goal-line versus Union Berlin (202521). THE SITUATION: Borussia Monchengladbach (W16-D5-L7) is winless in their last two matches after their nil-nil draw at Werder Bremen on Tuesday. Union Berlin (W9-D4-L15) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to FSV Mainz.
REASONS TO TAKE BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Fohlen had scored in nine straight matches before getting blanked on Tuesday. They return home where they are tied for 4th place with 31 goals — and they are 2nd in the league in expected goals scored based off that metric. Borussia Monchengladbach is the third best team in the league in points scored — and they have won nine of their thirteen league matches at home. Despite going winless in their last two matches, they remain tied for 4th place in the table which that slot being crucial for the Champions League — so they should remain very motivated. They seemed flat in their draw with Werder Bremen as their expected goal rate of 0.45 in that match was only the fourth time all season they did not generate at least a 1.0 xG mark in league play. Die Fohlen has scored in each of their home matches in the Bundesliga this season after not finding the back of the net to open their season. Union Berlin is winless in their last six contests — and they have generated only 10 points in their last thirteen matches in league play. With them being 4 points above the relegation zone but far away from 6th place which is necessary to qualify for the Europa League, I do worry about motivation for this team. Scoring prowess is certainly an issue for this team as they have scored just once in their three matches since the return to play. They are posting a dreary 0.61 xG mark over that span. Now this team goes back on the road where they have lost nine of their fourteen matches — and their 11 points away from home are tied for 2nd to last in the league. This is the first year this franchise has played in the Bundesliga after competing in the lesser leagues in Germany — and they are struggling on the road against the best teams in the league. In their eight matches against teams in the top-ten in the Bundesliga, Die Eisermen have lost all eight while being outscored by a whopping 22-4 margin.
FINAL TAKE: Union Berlin won the first meeting between these two teams by a 2-0 score — so the Borussia Monchengladbach should be extra-motivated to get back to their winning ways with revenge on their minds. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with the Borussia Monchengladbach (202522) minus the goal-line versus Union Berlin (202521). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-20 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf v. Bayern Munich UNDER 4.25 |
|
0-5 |
Loss |
-116 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Fortuna Dusseldorf (202533) and Bayern Munich (202534). THE SITUATION: Fortuna Dusseldorf (W6-D9-L13) looks to build off a 2-1 win over Schalke on Thursday. Bayern Munich (W20-D4-L4) comes off a big 1-0 win on the road in their showdown against Borussia Dortmund on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Bayern Munich likely clinched the Bundesliga championship with that effort earlier this week — so an emotional letdown is very possible especially as a big three-goal favorite in this match. Manager Hansi Flick is also quite likely to be liberal with his substitution strategy with this being his team’s third match in a week. Flick took over in November after Niko Kovac was fired and he immediately changed the tenor of this side on defense. His biggest adjustment was to move Joshua Kimmich from his fullback position on the backline to the midfield where he plays a holding defensive position. Kimmich has great instincts on the pitch so giving him a higher-profile role has worked. The move also gave a space for Phonzie to slide into the starting fullback role with the Canadian excelling in the role. This new XI has done a great job in suppressing high-quality shots by their opponents. Bayern Munich is unbeaten in their last fourteen matches while allowing just eight goals during that span. They have also allowed only two goals in their three matches since returning this month. They stifled a potent Borussia Dortmund offense on Tuesday as they limited them to just 0.57 expected goals in that match. Fortuna Dusseldorf has seen seven combined goals in their three matches this month while allowing just three goals in those contests. Die Flingeraner has scored only 31 goals this season which is tied for the second-lowest in the league — and their expected goals metric is also second-to-last in the Bundesliga.
FINAL TAKE: Fortuna Dusseldorf was held scoreless in the first meeting between these two teams which Bayern Munich won on the road by a 4-0 score. Die Flingeraner will find it difficult to score once again in this rematch — but they are likely to face a Bavarians side who will be resting on their laurels as a big favorite playing in an empty home stadium. 10* Bundesliga Saturday FS1-TV O/U Special with Under the Total in the match between Fortuna Dusseldorf (202533) and Bayern Munich (202534). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-20 |
SV Werder Bremen +0.5 v. Schalke 04 |
|
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 19 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Werder Bremen (202525) with the goal-line versus Schalke (202526). THE SITUATION: Werder Bremen (W5-D7-L15) enters this match coming off a nil-nil draw against Borussia Monchengladbach on Tuesday. Schalke (W9-D10-L9) comes off a 2-1 loss at Fortuna Dusseldorf on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE WERDER BREMEN WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Schalke are 9th in the standings but they are a complete mess right now having not won a match in their last ten league games going back to January 17th. They have lost six of those contests with four draws while surrendering 24 goals and scoring a mere three times. The deeper metrics confirm this collapse in quality as they are averaging just 0.81 expected goals (xG) in those last ten matches in league play while allowing 1.55 xGA. Since the return to play this month, the Royal Blues have lost all three matches while allowing nine goals and finding the back of the net just once. This team is showing almost no ambition on offense with that xG of 0.81 being the second-lowest in the league during the last ten matches. In part, manager David Wagner has placed an emphasis on defensive tactics which accounts for some of the slide in offensive production. The former Huddersfield manager is also engaged in a youth movement — and that is likely to continue with their Europa League aspirations slipping away. Die Kanppen is now 5 points out of the 6th place needed to qualify for the Europa. But this team has also been ravaged by injuries with first-stringers Omar Mascarell, Benjamin Stambowli, and Suat Serder all out with ailments. The metrics don’t like this team either with their expected points coming from the xG/xGA analysis dropping them to 13th in the league. In retrospect, it looks like Wagner’s side was pretty fortunate in the first half of the season but the Regression Gods have paid them an inevitable visit — and now they are suffering from the malaise of May which are made even worse when the roster was off for two months from the quarantines. Werder Bremen has much more to play for as they fight to get out of the final relegation spot in the table. Manager Florian Kohfeldt’s team does come off two straight clean sheets so they can build off their improving defensive efforts. They outplayed a Borussia Monchengladbach side on Tuesday who begins this match week tied for 4th place — they limited them to just 0.45 expected goals while posting better 0.93 xG numbers on offense. The River Islanders are typically a midlevel team in the Bundesliga while holding the longest consecutive streak playing in the top-flight since the 1981-82 season.
FINAL TAKE: Werder Bremen is a proud organization that is desperate to avoid relegation — and they are playing much better than Schalke at this point of the season. The River Islanders have won their last three matches at Veltins-Arena against the Royal Blues so they will be confident they can seize a crucial three points. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with the Werder Bremen (202525) with the goal-line versus Schalke (202526). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-30-20 |
FC Augsburg v. Hertha Berlin -0.5 |
Top |
0-2 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 27 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). THE SITUATION: Hertha Berlin (W9-D8-L11) enters this match coming off an impressive 2-2 draw at RB Leipzig on Wednesday. Augsburg (W8-D7-L13) comes off a nil-nil draw at home to Paderborn on Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE HERTHA BERLIN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Hertha Berlin showed no fear in traveling to Red Bull Arena to face an RB Leipzig side that the Expected Goals (xG) analytics ranks as the second-best team in the Bundesliga. The metrics for that match on Wednesday projected that Die Alte Dame should have defeated RB Leipzig by a 1.74 to 0.58 margin based on the empirical data from the quality and quantity of shots for both teams in that match. This Hertha Berlin team is much better than their record indicates at this point of the season. Die Alte Dame began the year with high expectations with a talented roster along with a high profile new manager in former USNMT skipper Jurgen Klinsmann. But Klinsmann was sacked in February over conflicts with ownership regarding the direction of this franchise. Hertha Berlin was very aggressive in the January transfer window as they brought in two talented strikers in Krzysztof Piatek and Matheus Cunha. While Piatek was the more glamorous and expensive signing coming over from AC Milan, Cunha has so far made the bigger impact on the pitch with four goals in his seven matches for his new team. Die Alte Dame also replaced interim manager Alexander Nouri who took over for Klinsmann with Bruno Labbadia in April during the stoppage of play. Labbadia has led his team to two wins and that draw at RB Leipzig earlier this week while scoring 9 goals while producing two clean sheets. Hertha Berlin is now unbeaten in their last five matches while scoring at least five goals in all those contests with the new talent at forward jumpstarting their offense. This team begins the day in 10th place in the German top-flight table while being 7 points out of 6th place which is necessary to qualify for next year’s Europa League. Yet this team is playing with as much momentum as any team in the league under their new manager as they continue to gain cohesion and build for next year. Augsburg may be lacking motivation with them being ranked 12th in the table — 4 points above relegation but even farther away from the 6th place Europa slot. Fuggerstadter has generated only 11 points over their last thirteen matches — and they have won only twice in their last ten games. Augsburg only picked up 1 point on Wednesday against a Paderborn side that is in the basement in the Bundesliga — and the xG projected a loss by a 1.25-0.84 margin in that contest so they were probably fortunate with the draw. They did snap a five-game losing streak on the road last weekend when they defeated Schalke — but that opponent is mired in a terrible ten-match winless streak as they spiral in the wrong direction. A good case can be made that Fuggerstadter has benefited from playing the two worst teams in the league right now over their last two contests. Finding offense has been the biggest problem as they have scored only seven combined goals over their last eight matches — and they were held scoreless in four of those contests. Forward Florian Niederlechner is the team’s leading scorer but he has been blanked in eight straight matches. They go back on the road where they have only scored three times in their last five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Hertha Berlin will have the extra motivation in this contest to avenge a 4-0 loss at Augsburg back on November 24th. Fuggerstadter was playing much better in the fall — and it is now Die Alte Dame that is playing with much better form. 25* Bundesliga Match of the Month with the Hertha Berlin (202514) minus the goal-line versus Augsburg (202513). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen v. SC Freiburg OVER 3 |
|
1-0 |
Loss |
-110 |
11 h 8 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202537) and Freiburg (202538). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W16-D5-L7) saw their five-match winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-1 upset loss at home to Wolfsburg. Freiburg (W10-D8-L10) comes off a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Freiburg escaped with the one point coming from the draw on Tuesday — but they were fortunate. They allowed Frankfurt to pepper them with 21 shots with 13 of them on target. They expected goals allowed for that match was 4.38 — so they were lucky to get out of that match with the draw. Freiburg ranks 7th in the league in goals allowed — but their expected goals allowed (xGA) plummets to the third-worst mark in the league. And while they are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals when playing at home, their ranking drops to 10th place in xGA when playing at the Black Forest at Schwarzwald-Stadion. Freiburg does not have a clean sheet since September. Now they host a Bayer Leverkusen side that is tied for 4th in the league with 53 goals this season. Manager Peter Bosz had his team playing more cautiously in the first half of the season with superstar midfielder, Kai Havertz, playing more of a defensive role. Die Werkself lost Julian Brandt in the offseason and missed his talent on the pitch along with his seven goals from last season. But Bosz pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in midseason which has resulted in this team going on a scoring spree. Not only have they scored in seventeen straight matches but they have also scored a combined 18 goals in their last six contests even after scoring just once on Tuesday. Havertz had scored four goals in the first two matches in the return of play this month before going scoreless against Wolfsburg. But with striker Kevin Holland not yet fit after returning to training after dealing with an injury, Havertz will continue to play the striker role that he thrived in as of late. But the more aggressive tactics that Die Werkself has embraced has cost them on the other end of the pitch as they have allowed at least one goal in seven of their last eight matches — and they have only two clean sheets in their last fourteen games. Furthermore, while Bayer Leverkusen is tied for 5th in the league by allowing just 19 goals on the road, their expected goals allowed (xGA) away from home ranking falls to 12th in the league.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen has seen 14 combined goals scored in their three matches this month after scoring eight times but allowing another six goals. Freiburg has seen nine combined goals scored in their three matches since the return of play as they have scored four times while conceding five goals. Expect a higher scoring match. 10* Bundesliga Friday Afternoon Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202537) and Freiburg (202538). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-29-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen -0.5 v. SC Freiburg |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 60 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W16-D5-L7) saw their five-match winning streak snapped on Tuesday with their 4-1 upset loss at home to Wolfsburg. Freiburg (W10-D8-L10) comes off a 3-3 draw at Frankfurt on Tuesday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYER LEVERKUSEN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Die Werkself may have been ripe for an emotional letdown after they defeated Borussia Monchengladbach on the road by a 3-1 score to seize 4th place in the standings. But the loss on Tuesday dropped them back into 5th place which is one position outside on qualifying for next season’s Championship League. Bayer Leverkusen had been playing great — they had won nine of their last eleven matches while being unbeaten in twelve straight matches before suffering the upset earlier this week. But with still plenty to play for, manager Peter Bosz’s squad should respond with a strong effort. Bosz had his team playing more cautiously in the first half of the season with superstar midfielder, Kai Havertz, playing more of a defensive role. Die Werkself lost Julian Brandt in the offseason and missed his talent on the pitch along with his seven goals from last season. But Bosz pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in midseason which has resulted in this team going on a scoring spree. Not only have they scored in seventeen straight matches but they have also scored a combined 18 goals in their last six contests even after scoring just once on Tuesday. Havertz had scored four goals in the first two matches in the return of play this month before going scoreless against Wolfsburg. But with striker Kevin Holland not yet fit after returning to training after dealing with an injury, Havertz will continue to play the striker role that he thrived in as of late. Bayer Leverkusen has won nine of their fifteen matches on the road in league play — their 28 points away from home is tied for the second-most in the German top flight. Freiburg is the most overachieving side in the Bundesliga — while they are 8th on the table with 38 points, their expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed numbers drop to the 5th lowest in the league. Freiburg has only won one match in their last seven matches and just three times in 2020 — and they have won only four of their last sixteen contests. They were very fortunate to escape with the one point for their draw on Tuesday since the expected goal metric projected that they should have allowed 4.38 goals to Frankfurt while scoring just 0.82 goals — so they were graded with the most fortunate result last week. They had a 3-1 lead in the match ending the final 11 minutes of regulation before surrounding two goals in the next three minutes in settling for the draw. By the end of the match, they had allowed a whopping 21 shots with 13 of them being on target. It is luck on their end of the pitch which has been the biggest reason why they are over-performing their deeper metrics. While Freiburg ranks 7th in the league in goals allowed, their expected goals allowed (xGA) plummets to the third-worst mark in the league. And while they are tied for allowing the third-fewest goals when playing at home, their ranking drops to 10th place in xGA when playing at the Black Forest at Schwarzwald-Stadion.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams played to a 1-1 draw on November 23rd — but Freiburg remains winless in their last five matches against Beyer Leverkusen. Only earning 1 point in that contest should ensure they do not take Freiburg lightly in this reverse fixture. Coming off the upset loss, look for Die Werkself to respond with a strong effort. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Match of the Month with the Bayer Leverkusen (202537) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202438). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-27-20 |
SC Paderborn 07 v. FC Augsburg OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). THE SITUATION: Paderborn (W4-D6-L17) eked out their second straight draw since the return of play in the German top flight with their 1-1 draw at home against Hoffenheim last Saturday. Augsburg (W8-D6-L13) snapped a six-match winless streak on Sunday when they defeated Schalke on the road by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Paderborn has received a burst of energy from forward Dennis Srbeny who has scored four of his team's last five goals with his strike on Saturday. This team has scored in nine of their last eleven matches with an exciting direct style-of-play under manager Steffen Baumgart who has his team go toe-to-toe with the top-level sides in the league. Paderborn is not going to park the bus in the back — especially when they are in last place in the Bundesliga and desperate for the three points that come with a victory. Paderborn has also conceded a goal in the first 15 minutes of the match in fourteen of their twenty-seven league matches this season — so they are frequently playing from behind. They have surrendered 55 goals this season which is the third most in the German top flight. Furthermore, Paderborn has only had four clean sheets in four of their last twenty-five matches — and they have pulled this feat off just once in their last eight contests. Augsburg has seen at least three combined goals scored in their first two matches since the return of play. They return home where they are 7th in the Bundesliga with 25 goals scored. They have scored at least one goal in twelve of their last thirteen matches in their WMK Arena — and eleven of their last twelve home matches have gone Over 2.5 combined goals scored. Florian Niederlechner may be due to score in this match as he has not found the back of the net in seven straight matches despite being the team’s leading scorer. Augsburg has also allowed the fourth-most goals in the Bundesliga at a 2.0 goals allowed per game rate.
FINAL TAKE: Paderborn will be looking to avenge a 1-0 loss at home to Augsburg back on November 9th. The Fuggerstadter also employ an open style of play — so Paderborn should get plenty of scoring chances in this match. Augsburg is tied for 12th place in the table which puts them 6 points above the relegation zone. So while the Fuggerstadter are probably safe, they will still be looking to increase their home winning streak against Paderborn to fourteen straight matches. 25* Bundesliga Midweek Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Paderborn (202477) and Augsburg (202478). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-26-20 |
Bayern Munich -0.5 v. Borussia Dortmund |
Top |
1-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 25 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). THE SITUATION: Bayern Munich (W19-D4-L4) has won six straight matches while being unbeaten in thirteen straight games in the Bundesliga after their 5-2 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday. Borussia Dortmund (W17-D6-L4) has won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions with their 2-0 win at Wolfsburg on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE BAYERN MUNICH MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Borussia Dortmund was fortunate to earn the two-goal victory as they only managed four shots in the match — and their expected goals based on the deeper metrics was just 0.91. The Black-and-Yellows have scored 74 goals this season — but the analytics are screaming for regression with this team given that their expected goals this year plummet to just 52.06 goals. While BVB is second in the German top-flight table with 57 points, their points based on expected goals fall to 50.48. Borussia Dortmund has the best record at home in the Bundesliga with a W10-D3-L0 mark for 33 points — but the xG metric projects those points to only accrue 27.39. Their 45 goals when playing at home drops significantly with the expected goals metric to just 31.06 xG. The Black-and-Yellows would certainly prefer that fans would be in the crowd for this Der Klassiker to help reproduce their famed “yellow wall.” This team is also dealing with injuries with forward (and captain) Marcos Reus out for this match with a knock while 20-year old phenom Jadon Sancho remains questionable with his injury. Borussia Dortmund is loaded with young talent — but experience in big matches like this is an issue. This team does not have the level of depth as Bayern Munich — and it is questionable how many of their starting XI would warrant the starting lineup if these two rosters were hypothetically merged. Bayern Munich may very well be the best team in Europe. They have won fourteen of their seventeen matches since they fired manager Niko Kovac to replace him with Hansi Flick. The Bavarians have won seven straight Bundesliga titles — and Flick reinvigorated this team by instituting a high press with a 4-1-4-1 formation. Bayern Munich’s defense has significantly improved under Flick as this team has done much better in coaxing suboptimal shots. Der Rekordmeister had registered five straight clean sheets before they surrendered two goals in a three-minute span on Saturday against Frankfurt. Led by forwards Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller along with 19-year old Canadian sensation Alphonso Davies at left wing, the Bavarians lead the German top-flight with 80 goals — and their 37 goals away from home are the most goals on the road in the league. Bayern Munich has won nine of their thirteen matches on the road in league play this season.
FINAL TAKE: Bayern Munich is in first-place by 4 points over Borussia Dortmund who is the next closest team to them in the standings — and even the expected goals metrics suggest they are slightly underachieving. The Bavarians are no fluke — and a victory in this match likely cements their eight-straight league championship. They will likely be without midfielder Thiago who is injured for this match — but this team has plenty of depth to replace him on the pitch. Bayern Munich blasted Borussia Dortmund by a 4-0 score in the reverse fixture back on November 9th — and they have won the last two spring showdowns with their primary Bundesliga rivals by a combined 11-0 score. Expect Bayern Munich to once again outclass this BVB side that has been very fortunate with their scoring success this season — especially with no home crowd to apply pressure to the road favorites in this match. 25* Bundesliga Midweek FS1-TV Match of the Year with Bayern Munich (202485) minus the goal-line versus Borussia Dortmund (202486). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-20 |
Fortuna Dusseldorf v. 1. FC Koln -0.5 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-118 |
3 h 6 m |
Show
|
At 12:00 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). THE SITUATION: FC Koln (W10-D3-L13) returned to the pitch last Sunday with a 2-2 draw at home to FSV Mainz. Fortuna Dusseldorf (W5-D8-L13) also comes off a draw in their nil-nil results at home versus SC Paderborn last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE FC KOLN MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: FC Koln was frustrated last week after blowing a 2-0 lead in that game. But this is still a side moving in the right direction having won eight of their last twelve matches outright. The Billy Goats opened the season losing ten of their first fourteen league matches but now find themselves in the middle at the table in 10th place and likely safe from relegation. This team has improved in the second half of the season with the acquisition of forward Mark Uth on loan from Schalke who has since scored five times while adding four assists in his eight matches with the team. FC Koln is projected as the 8th best team in the league when looking at the expected points based on their expected goals scored and allowed this year. The Billy Goats had been playing better defense before the stoppage of play as they have allowed only three combined goals in their last four matches before surrendering two goals last week in the final 30 minutes of that contest. FC Koln has played much better at home lately as well with only one loss in their last five league contests to the first-place Bayern Munich. They have also generated 10 points in their last five home matches with three outright victories. Fortuna Dusseldorf may be demoralized after last week as they hit three posts in their scoreless draw with Paderborn. That was a crucial opportunity for Die Flingeraner to get themselves out of the relegation zone against the last-place team. Now they still find themselves 4 points out of 15th place. While Fortuna Dusseldorf has allowed 50 goals this season which is the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga, they are the bottom team in the league in expected goals allowed. They are also the second-worst team in the Bundesliga in expected points when playing on the road. To compound matters, this team will be without a key piece to their defense with Kaan Ayaan suspended for this match after receiving his fifth yellow card last week.
FINAL TAKE: Motivation is a concern for FC Koln with them seemingly safe from relegation but still 6 points out of 6th place which is the final qualifying spot for next year’s Europa League. But the Billy Goats have the opportunity to avenge a 2-0 loss to Fortuna Dusseldorf back on November 3rd which was a match played amidst their dreary start to the season. Getting the bad taste out of their mouth from blowing a two-goal lead is the other motivating factor for this contest. The analytics indicate there is a significant difference between these two sides. 25* Bundesliga Sunday FS1-TV Match of the Year with the FC Koln (202442) minus the goal-line versus Fortuna Dusseldorf (202441). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-24-20 |
Lokomotive Leipzig v. Mainz OVER 3 |
|
5-0 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202449) and FSV Mainz (202450). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W14-D9-L3) comes off a 1-1 draw at home to Freiburg last Saturday. FSV Mainz (W8-D3-L15) also comes off a draw as they rallied from a 2-0 deficit to earn a 2-2 result at FC Koln last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: RB Leipzig has only lost once since last October — and they are unbeaten in seven straight matches. But this team needs to get a victory with the 3 points it provides in the league standings after settling for their ninth draw this year. Their 63 goals are the second-most in the Bundesliga this season — and they have the second-most expected goals in the league. On the road, RB Leipzig has scored 30 goals which are the second-most in the league — and they also rank second in the league in expected goals. FSV Mainz had not scored in three of their last five matches before finding the back of the net twice to pull out the draw on the road last week. Yet this team is still tied for 9th in the league with 36 goals scored this season. The bigger issue for this team has been their leaky defense as they are second-to-last in the Bundesliga having allowed 55 goals.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig had an easy time of it in the reverse fixture between these two teams in November as they blasted FSV Mainz by an 8-0 score. With both teams motivated to improve their place in the German top-flight table, expect at least three combined goals to be scored. 10* Bundesliga Sunday Morning Discounted Deal with Over the Total in the match between RB Leipzig (202449) and FSV Mainz (202450). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-23-20 |
Bayer Leverkusen v. Borussia Monchengladbach OVER 3 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 41 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). THE SITUATION: Bayer Leverkusen (W15-D5-L6) has won eight of their last ten matches across all competitions while going unbeaten in their last six games after their 4-1 win at Werder Bremen on Monday. Borussia Monchengladbach (W16-D4-L6) has lost just once in their last eight matches after they dispatched of Eintracht Frankfurt on the road by a 3-1 score last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: This should be an entertaining — and high-scoring — contest between two teams fighting for one of the four slots to qualify for the Champions League next season. Both of these engage in aggressive tactics on the pitch. Bayer Leverkusen is currently in 5th place in the German top-flight table just 2 points behind Borussia Monchengladbach who is in 3rd place. Die Werkself is led by a 20-year old sensation Kai Havertz who is a matchup nightmare in the middle of the pitch given his agility along with his 6’2 size. He is destined to be the next great number #10 position player for the German national team for at least the next two World Cup cycles. Manager Peter Bosz did have Havertz playing more of a defensive position in the first half of the season given the loss in the offseason of Julian Brandt who contributed seven goals last season. But Bosz has pushed Havertz higher up the pitch in the second half of the season — and Bayer Leverkusen has responded by scoring 14 goals over their last four matches. Their defense has been an issue for this team as they have allowed goals in five of their last six matches along with ten of their last twelve contests. They only have three clean sheets on the road in league play this season — and they rank just 10th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed (xGA) when playing away from home. Borussia Monchengladbach has scored nine goals in their last four matches which have helped them rank 4th in the league in goals scored — and they rise to 3rd in the Bundesliga in expected goals (xG) scored. Their match with Eintracht Frankfurt was a wild one as they attempted 17 shots while allowing their opponents to launch 14 shots. Their ability to suppress scoring opportunities is hampered right now with their start holding midfielder in Denis Zakaria out for at least another month after he had knee surgery during the recent stoppage of play. Borussia Monchengladbach is just 7th in the league in goals allowed when playing at home — but they fall to 9th in the Bundesliga in expected goals allowed when playing on their home pitch. But on the other hand, this team has scored in a dozen straight league matches at home (after blanking in their opening home match this season) — and they rank 2nd in the league in expected goals scored at home.
FINAL TAKE: Bayer Leverkusen is looking to avenge a 2-1 loss at home o Borussia Monchengladbach back on November 2nd. Both teams should get on the board in this match with a high likelihood that at least four combined goals will be scored in this contest. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bayer Leverkusen (202461) and Borussia Monchengladbach (202462). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-22-20 |
Union Berlin v. Hertha Berlin OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 49 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). THE SITUATION: Union Berlin (W9-D3-L14) returned to action in the German top flight with a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich last Sunday. Hertha Berlin (W8-D7-L11) defeated Hoffenheim on the road last Saturday by a 3-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Union Berlin did a good job of keeping mighty Bayern Munich in check as the first-place team in Bundesliga had a goal expectation of just 1.35 (xG) from their tactics on the pitch — and one of their goals was scored from a penalty kick. But Union Berlin embraced defensive tactics for most of this match with their top scorer unavailable for that match. Forward Sebastian Andersson had been injured before the stoppage in play for COVID-19 — and while he was available on the bench for this match, manager Urs Fischer decided he was not yet fit for action. Andersson has scored 11 times this season which accounts for 43% of the scoring for Die Eisernen this season — but he should be back on the pitch for this local Berlin derby. This is the maiden season in the Bundesliga for Union Berlin — and Fischer’s team has generated fourteen goals via set pieces this year. This team overachieved on defense last week as they have allowed the sixth-most goals on the road in the league this season — and they also rank 6th for the highest xGA when playing away from home. Union Berlin has conceded at least one goal in five straight matches — and they have allowed ten combined goals in their last four contests. To compound matters, Die Eisernen will be undermanned on their backline with defenseman Kevin Schlotterbeck suspended for this match after picking up his fifth yellow card this season on Sunday. Hertha Berlin has seen an uptick in their offensive attack in the second half of the season after making two important moves in the winter transfer window. Die Alt Dame signed Krzysztof Piatek from AC Milan and Matheus Cunha from RB Leipzig to completely transform their forward line. Hertha Berlin has scored eight combined goals in their last three matches while finding the back of the bet at least twice in those three contests. Cunha has scored three goals while adding an assist in his five matches with his new club. And while Piatek did not play on Saturday, he was replaced by team captain Vedad Ibisevic with the 35-year old veteran scoring one of the team’s two goals Cunha. Die Alte Dame plays an entertaining open style of play which has seen plenty of goals from both sides as of late. Over their last six matches, 25 combined goals have been scored. Hertha Berlin has allowed the fourth-most goals when playing at home at the Olympiastadion — and the expected goals they have allowed at home (xGA) is also the fourth-worst in the Bundesliga. They do come off a clean sheet win on the road last week — but the xGA for that match was over 3.0 so they were very fortunate to see that result. Expect an appearance from the Regression Gods on Friday when it comes to the defensive results for this team.
FINAL TAKE: These two teams have scored in four of their last five meetings in this rivalry. Hertha Berlin’s 31 points put them one point ahead of Union Berlin for 11th place in the German top-flight table. With both teams probably safe from relegation but too far removed from the sixth place necessary to qualify for the next Europa League, the only thing at stake in this match is bragging rights. Expect a higher-scoring match. 25* Bundesliga Friday FS2-TV Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Union Berlin (202453) and Hertha Berlin (202454). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-20 |
Borussia Monchengladbach v. Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 |
|
3-1 |
Loss |
-155 |
20 h 44 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Eintracht Frankfurt (202422) with the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202421). THE SITUATION: Frankfurt (W8-D4-L12) has lost their last three matches after their 3-0 loss at home to Basel in a Europa match back on March 12th. Gladbach (W15-D4-L6) last played on March 11th when they defeated Koln at home by a 2-1 score in Bundesliga action.
REASONS TO TAKE FRANKFURT WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Eagles were veering in the wrong direction before the stoppage of play as they had lost three straight matches while being outscored by a 10-1 margin over that span. Frankfurt has won only once in their last five matches. But this enigmatic team had been on a W5-D1-L1 run before this recent stretch — and this group did finish in the top-six on the German professional league last season which qualified them for this year’s Europa league. It has been an injury-marred season for manager Adi Hutter — but the two-month break has allowed the Eagles to get as close to full-health as they have been all season. Frankfurt expects Bas Dost, Gelson Fernandes, and Lucas Torro to return to the pitch in this match. This team is the most underachieving side in the Bundesliga according the deeper analytics. While the Eagles are 12th in the table with 28 points, their expected points (xPTS) based on expected goals (xG) scored and allowed (xGA) this season projected them to should have secured 37.10 points (xPTS) which is the 7th best in the league. Frankfurt has 21 points when playing at home at Commercialzbank Arena which is 6th best in Bundesliga. While the Eagles will not have the benefit of home fans for this match with Germany requiring social distancing, I am still assigning home field advantage for these matches given the familiarity teams have for their own pitch along with the benefit of not having to travel. Borussia Monchengladbach was perhaps playing their best soccer of the season before the stoppage as they had only lost once in their last seven matches. But manager Marcos Rose’s team was likely overachieving given the analytics. While they are currently 4th in the league with 49 points, their xPTS drops to 45.98. Gladbach is dominant at home where they are W9-D2-L2 with their 29 points being tied for second-most in the Bundesliga and just a point behind Borussia Dortmund’s 30 home points. But Gladblach has won only half of their twelve matches on the road this season. This team is also missing one of their best players with Denis Zakaria out for around six weeks after getting knee surgery. The 23-year old Swiss star is only one of four players in the league with at least 170 ball recoveries this season along with a duel success rate of at least 57%. Zakaria is a holding midfielder which is a position that is the lynchpin for a team’s cohesiveness on defense. I really worry about good teams that lose their best defensive midfielders — and the loss of these players is often underestimated by bettors since these players do not rack up goals and assists (e.g.: Leicester City was just W2-D2-L4 in their last eight matches in the English Premier League after their star holding midfielder, Wilfred Ndidi, not starting as he nursed an injury — they had started W13-D2-L4 in their first nineteen EPL matches this season before Ndidi’s injury).
FINAL TAKE: This is a nice betting opportunity with an overvalued road team according to the metrics traveling to face an undervalued home team when looking at those same analytics. Gladbach is well in the hunt to qualify for one of the four Champions League qualifying positions for next season — but with those expectations also comes pressure. Frankfurt can play this match loose in the role of the spoiler — while also knowing that getting on a winning streak can put them in a position to still qualify for next year’s Europa League with a top-six finish. The Eagles can also end a three-match losing streak to Gladbach with a victory. With Frankfurt a small underdog to a pick ‘em at home, take the home team. 10* Bundesliga Gladbach-Frankfurt FS1-TV Special with Eintracht Frankfurt (202422) with the goal-line versus Borussia Monchengladbach (202421). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-20 |
VfL Wolfsburg v. FC Augsburg UNDER 2.75 |
|
2-1 |
Loss |
-67.5 |
14 h 22 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between VFL Wolfsburg (202417) and Augsburg (202418). THE SITUATION: Wolfsburg (W9-D9-L7) returns to action in the German Bundesliga after suffering a 2-1 loss at home to Shakhtar Donetsk in a Europa League match on March 12th. Augsburg (W7-D6-L12) last played on March 8th when they lost at home to Bayern Munich by a 2-0 score.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Augsburg fired their manager, Martin Schmidt, after that match with the first-place team in the Bundesliga. New manager Heiko Herrlich returns to the sidelines almost eighteen months after he was dismissed as the skipper for Bayern Leverkusen. Herrlich will be tasked with fixing a defense that has allowed the second-most goals in the league outside the bottom three sides. However, Herrlich was caught breaking curfew going on a toothpaste run so he will miss this match as he stays in quarantine for the required fourteen days. Despite this setback, I do expect the Fuggerstadter to play better on defense since a change in tactics should fix much of what ails this team. Augsburg has too often been burned in the midfield outmanned by their opposition. Expect Herrlich to implement a less-aggressive approach to compensate. The mission for Augsburg now is to stave off relegation as they are currently in 14th place with a 5 point lead out of the bottom three slots in the league. Grabbing one point from draws will go along way to serve this purpose. Frankly, Augsburg has been a bit unfortunate in surrendering goals this season. While thee have allowed 52 goals, their expected goals allowed drops to 45.18 xGA — and the 21 goals they have allowed at home at WWK Arena drops to just 16.85 xGA. More emphasis on defense makes sense with the Fuggerstadter struggling on offense as of late. They have only scored three combined goals in their last five matches while failing to score in three of those matches. They will struggle to score goals against VFL Wolfsburg who is 2nd in Bundesliga with an xGA mark of only 28.21. Wolfsburg has three clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions. On the road, they have allowed only 17 goals in their twelve league contests — and their xGA of 15.92 when on the road is the 3rd best mark in Bundesliga. But Wolfsburg has scored only 18 goals when playing on the road in league play which is tied for the 8th lowest. They will also be without their top scorer, Wout Weghorst, who is suspended for this match after being handed a fifth yellow card this season back in March. Weghorst scored 18 goals last year and he was well on his way to besting that mark with 15 goals in Bundesliga already this season.
FINAL TAKE: These teams have seen three of their last five encounters end in a scoreless draw which included their last meeting at Wolfsburg back on October 27th. But in the reverse fixture at Augsburg almost a year ago on May 18th, Wolfsburg rocked the Fuggerstadter by an 8-1 score. Redeeming themselves from that embarrassment offers the final reason why an absent Herrich will likely demand a heavy reliance on defensive principles back at WWK Arena this season. 10* Bundesliga Saturday Morning Discounted Deal with Under the Total in the match between VFL Wolfsburg (202417) and Augsburg (202418). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
05-16-20 |
SC Freiburg v. Lokomotive Leipzig -1.25 |
Top |
2-1 |
Loss |
-137 |
31 h 35 m |
Show
|
At 9:30 AM ET on Saturday, we will be playing RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus SC Freiburg (202405). THE SITUATION: RB Leipzig (W14-D8-L3) returns to the pitch after a two-month absence from action given the stoppage of play in the Bundesliga from the Coronavirus. They last played on March 10th when they dominated Tottenham by a 3-0 score in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 to advance to the Quarterfinals of the European Championship by an aggregate 4-0 score. Freiburg (W10-D6-L9) last played on Match 7th when they defeated Union Berlin by a 3-1 score.
REASONS TO LAY THE GOAL-LINE WITH RB LEIPZIG: Manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team should be very motivated to play out the string of their Bundesliga matches. They currently sit in 3rd place in Germany’s top-flight league five points behind Bayern Munich in 1st place and just one point behind 2nd place Borussia Dortmund. This team also features several players who are in line for big paydays on the summer transfer market — so taking advantage of these matches which will have the attention of the world with the Bundesliga being the first major European soccer league returning to action could be very lucrative. Forward Timo Werner is being rumored to have the interest of Liverpool while midfielder Marcel Sabitzer has been possibly linked to both Liverpool and Arsenal. Werner has 21 goals this season with another 8 assists. RB Leipzig also has a dynamic attacking midfielder Christopher Nkunku leads the Bundesliga with 65 scoring chances — and his 4.05 scoring chances per 90 minutes average this season is the second-best of all players in the top-five European professional leagues. But the strength of manager Julian Nagelsmann’s team is on defense. RB Leipzig is tied for tops in the Bundesliga in fewest goals allowed. This team has allowed only one goal in their last five matches across all competitions — and they have registered six clean sheets in their last seven matches overall. Consistent play on the defensive side of the pitch is the characteristic that I suspect will carry over after the long layoff. Freiburg has just three victories in 2020 despite defeating Union Berlin in their last match. They are led by Nils Petersen — but their top-scorer has not found the back of the net in his last eight league matches. Freiburg can struggle to create scoring chances so I expect them to struggle against this RB Leipzig side that is so good at shot suppression. They had scored only three goals in their previous five matches before their three-goal effort against Union Berlin. Freiburg has scored only 18 goals in their thirteen league matches on the road. And while they have conceded 21 goals in their thirteen matches away from home in Bundesliga, the deeper metrics indicate that they expected goals they should have allowed jumps to 28.32. RB Leipzig is in 8th place in the league with 36 points — but the analytics projects regression with their net xG of only 28.79 points entering this match.
FINAL TAKE: RB Leipzig hosts this match at their Red Bull Arena where they are W7-D4-L1 in league play this season. While there will not be fans for this contest given social distancing guidelines, I am still assigning advantages to the home team given the familiarity of their arena along with not having to travel for this match. RB Leipzig will also have revenge on their mind after losing at Freiburg by a 2-1 score back on October 26th. 25* Bundesliga FS2-TV Match of the Year with RB Leipzig (202406) minus the goal-line versus Freiburg (202405). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-29-20 |
Liverpool -1 v. Watford |
|
0-3 |
Loss |
-115 |
0 h 18 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200069) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200070). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W26-D1-L0) returns to the pitch after a shaky 3-2 win at home against West Ham on Monday. Watford (W5-D9-L13) looks to rebound from a 3-0 loss at Manchester United on Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: After an unbeaten four-match run through New Year’s Day where Watford won three of those matches outright under new manager Nigel Pearson who was installed in early December, the Hornets have faltered since by going winless in their last five matches. Watford has only scored once in their last two matches but it is the play of their defense that draw the larger concerns. In their first seven matches under Pearson, they allowed only 8.5 shots in the box per game along with just 1.33 Big Chances allowed to their opponents per game. But in these last five contests, the Hornets have allowed 11 shots in the box per match along with 2.0 Big Chances per game. Watford has allowed at least two goals in three of their last four contests which puts a Liverpool victory by at least two goals very much in play. The Hornets are W1-D3-L4 in their eight matches against Big Six sides but they have surrendered 18 goals while scoring just 6 times in those contests. Liverpool was unfocused on defense on Monday by allowing the Hammers to score first and then to take a 2-1 lead. But the Reds dominated that contest with 25 shots to just 7 for West Ham — and they did what was needed to rally to pull out the 3-2 victory. With no midweek action since that contest, manager Jurgen Klopp’s team should be rested and ready for this contest. While winning the English Premier League title appears to be a fait accompli, Liverpool remains motivated to break Arsenal’s EPL unbeaten streak while also posting a historic point total in the league. They should bounce-back with a strong effort. Remember, they surrender more goals on Monday (unfortunately, for us, as we had the Under) than they had in their previous eleven EPL matches combined. Yet the Reds have still registered clean sheets in ten of their last twelve EPL matches. Liverpool has loved to face Watford under Klopp’s stewardship as they have scored 27 goals in their nine EPL matches against them. Mo Salah might have a big game as he has scored eight times in his five EPL matches against the Hornets. Liverpool has won all ten of their matches on the road against non-Power Six opponents while scoring 22 goals and conceding just 4 times.
FINAL TAKE: Watford is winless in their last eight EPL matches against Liverpool with seven outright losses. 20* EPL Liverpool-Watford NBC-TV Special with the Liverpool (200069) minus the goal-line versus Watford (200070). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-28-20 |
Leicester -0.5 v. Norwich City |
Top |
0-1 |
Loss |
-123 |
1 h 47 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-D5-L7) looks to bounce-back from a 1-0 loss at home to Manchester City last Saturday. Norwich City (W4-D6-L17) comes off a 3-0 loss at Wolverhampton last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: This is a get-right game for the Foxes. Leicester has not scored in their last two matches and their best attacker, Jamie Vardy, has not scored in seven straight matches. The team really missed Wilfried Ndidi in the midfield who has been the glue of this team. But the Foxes have also endured a challenging schedule as of late in the English Premier League with their previous matches being against a solid Wolverhampton side that is playing their best soccer of the season along with Chelsea. Leicester City has thrived against the non-Power Six sides in the EPL this season: they are W13-D3-L2 in those contests while scoring 45 goals and conceding just 12 times in those eighteen matches. The Foxes have also been capable when playing on the road where they are W7-D2-L4 in thirteen matches while scoring 28 times and conceding just 12 goals. Vardy is unquestionably out of form but he has been a reliable striker for many years who should eventually get it going again — and he is getting chances. Manager Brendan Rodgers has plenty of capable goal scorers in his starting XI including Harvey Barnes who has scored three goals in the last five weeks along with Ayoze Perez who recently registered a brace and Touri Tielemans who has two assists in 2020. And those names fail to mention the Foxes’ second best offensive player in James Maddison who is also enduring a slump. Norwich City may be just what the doctor ordered for Leicester City. Wolverhampton battered them last week with 19 shot attempts with 13 of them in the box and five big chances that correlated with an Expected-Goals scored metric above the three goals that they scored against the porous Canaries defense. The 51 goals that Norwich has allowed this season is the second most in the EPL — and the 26 goals they have allowed at home is also the second most in the league. The Canaries have lost three of their last four matches in EPL action while failing to score in three straight games. Over their last fourteen EPL matches, they are just 1-5-8 which is why they are in the basement of the standings. Since relegation is likely for this team, they should play this match aggressively since they are desperate for victories with the 3 points they accrue.
FINAL TAKE: There is little chance of Leicester City taking this team lightly since they settled for a disappointing 1-1 draw with them back on December 14th at home in their first meeting. The Foxes are the better team — and they need the victory to jumpstart their season where they hope to qualify in the top four for the Champions League for next season. Leicester City prefers opponents like the Canaries who play with a more open style of play — and, remember, that they had scored 54 goals over a twenty-four match span (while being blanked just once) before their recent two-game slide. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Match of the Year with the Leicester City (200045) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200045). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-24-20 |
West Ham United v. Liverpool UNDER 3.5 |
Top |
2-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
1 h 56 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W6-D6-L14) returns to the pitch after a 2-0 loss at Manchester City back on February 19th. Liverpool (W25-D1-L0) comes off a 1-0 win over Norwich City on February 15th in their last English Premier League match.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Liverpool is playing outstanding defense after a shaky start to the season. The Reds have produced ten clean sheets in their last eleven games while allowing a mere one goal over that span in English Premier League action. The insertion of Joe Gomez into their defensive backline has certainly helped. Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp has also gotten his group to play a bit more conservatively with an emphasis on defensive tactics after starting the season where they were an offensive juggernaut. The Reds’ offensive attack has been moderated as of late as they have not scored more than two goals in seven of their last eight matches. Liverpool has also scored two goals or less in seven of their last ten matches at home. The team lost an important piece to their midfield last Tuesday in their loss to Atletico Madrid in Champions League play with Jordan Henderson suffering a hamstring injury. Look for the Reds to play a bit more cautiously this afternoon to compensate for his absence on the pitch. West Ham parked the proverbial bus last Saturday in their 2-0 loss to Manchester City. Manager David Moyes will likely deploy the same strategy in this contest with the Hammers trying to fight off relegation. Goal differential could play a role in staving off a return to England’s Champions League so West Ham will not begin to play more aggressively if they fall behind by a goal or two. Moyes will be relatively happy with a 2-0 loss so that the Hammers do not get dinged too badly with the goal differential tie-breaker. West Ham had only three shots against Man City with none of them on target. They have scored only five goals in their last six contests with three of them coming in a 3-3 draw against Brighton. West Ham has scored only 10 goals on the road this season in the EPL which is the second lowest amount in the league. The Hammers have seen 21 combined goals in their seven EPL matches against Big Six sides for a 3.0 combined goals per game average.
FINAL TAKE: There is a high likelihood that West Ham will not score in this match. These two teams played last month on January 29th where Liverpool won by a 2-0 score — and I see that result as the probable score this afternoon. Klopp will substitute early once this match is in hand to save the strength of his key players. With the Reds missing Henderson in the middle, I do not think their offensive attack will be clicking on all cylinders. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Under the Total in the match between West Ham (200041) and Liverpool (200042). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-15-20 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. Norwich City |
Top |
1-0 |
Loss |
-59.5 |
2 h 54 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W24-D1-L0) won their sixteenth straight match in English Premier League play two Saturdays ago with their 4-0 win at home against Southampton. Norwich City (W4-D6-L15) comes off a 0-0 draw at Newcastle back on February 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Reds are clicking on all cylinders with it seeming inevitable that they will capture the EPL crown this season. Liverpool is unbeaten in their last forty-two EPL matches. While some teams might go on auto-pilot at this point of the season, that is unlikely to happen to this Reds team with them chasing the EPL all-time record set by Arsenal in 2004 with their forty-nine game unbeaten streak. Instead, this Liverpool team is rested from the week off while getting healthy again with both Sadio Mane and James Milner both fit to take the pitch again. The Reds have an important Champions League match on deck next week against Atletico Madrid — but with last week off, I expect the manager Jurgen Klopp to get his best players on the pitch for this match to get them back into game shape. Liverpool has dominated the lesser teams in the league this season as they have won all eighteen of their matches against non-Big Six sides while scoring 46 goals and conceding just ten times. Nine of those victories have been on the road where they have scored 25 goals against non-Big Six sides while allowing just six goals. After a slow start on defense this season, Liverpool has been very stingy as of late as they have registered nine clean sheets in their last ten matches while conceding just one goal over that span. The insertion of Joe Gomez in their backline has correlated with the improved play. The issue may come down to whether or not Liverpool scores twice in this contest. The Reds have scored at least two goals in fourteen of their last sixteen EPL contests. Furthermore, Liverpool has won eight of their last eleven matches by at least two goals — and they have won three of their last five matches on the road by at least two goals. Norwich City is winless in their last thirteen EPL matches with eleven of those contests being outright defeats. While the Canaries have registered two clean sheets in their last three matches, they have also scored only two goals in their last four contests after suffering a 4-0 loss at Manchester United. Norwich City is at the bottom of the table while being at severe risk of being relegated. Yet Klopp will have an easy sell to his squad to not have his group take this team lightly since they have defeated Manchester City at home while earning draws with Tottenham and Chelsea. The 47 goals that the Canaries have surrendered this season is the tied for the second most in the EPL.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has won their last six EPL matches at Norwich City with 25 combined goals in those contests where they scored at least two goals in each game. With such a talent disparity between the Reds and the promoted Canaries from the Champions League last year — and with Liverpool motivated to break Arsenal’s unbeaten record — look for a decisive victory. 25* EPL NBC-TV Match of the Year with the Liverpool (200149) minus the goal-line versus Norwich City (200150). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
02-14-20 |
Leicester v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 |
Top |
0-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W15-4D4-L6) returns to English Premier League action after their 2-2 draw with Chelsea back on February 1st. Wolverhampton (W8-D11-L6) comes off a 0-0 draw at Manchester United on February 1st.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Leicester City has come back to earth after a outstanding stretch in the fall where they won ten of eleven EPL matches. The Foxes have won only three times in their last nine matches since that golden run. Some of the problem was the typical visit from the Regression Gods after outperforming their underlying statistics. Leicester City also enjoyed a favorable group of opponents during that autumn stretch before things got more challenging in December and January. But the biggest concern for this team has been the decline of their play on defense. The Foxes have allowed 16 goals over their last nine matches with too many of them occurring from within six feet. The team missed defensive midfielder Wilfred Ndidi who missed last month with a leg injury — and after suffering a setback in training he will miss this match this afternoon. Leicester City has seen at least three combined goals scored in each of their last eight matches. Forward Jamie Vardy has also seen his production decline after a torrid start as he has not scored in five straight EPL matches. Vardy was averaging a Lionel Messi-like 4 shots per game at his peak during that eleven match run for the Foxes — he has averaged just 1 shot per game since that run. Vardy is wily veteran who should break out of this scoring slump. Leicester City has still scored 13 goals in their last six matches even with Vardy’s slump. The Foxes have also seen their last five road matches all see at least three combined goals where they have scored eleven goals over that span. Leicester City has scored 28 times in their twelve road matches this EPL season. They also have scored 45 times in their seventeen matches against non-Power Six clubs — and they have scoed 25 goals in their eight road matches against non-Power Six sides this EPL season. Wolverhampton produced their first clean sheet in their last ten EPL matches to begin the month. That was also just their second EPL match since the opening game of the season where they were held scoreless. The Wolves have scored or conceded a goal in a league high nineteen matches this season — so the odds are very high that the we will be looking at a 1-1 score (or better for our Over) at one point in this contest. Wolverhampton has seen three of their last four home matches see at least three combined goals scored. They have surrendered 18 goals in their sixteen matches against non-Power Six sides. The Wolves have also allowed the 8th most goals when playing at home this season.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton has won their last two opportunities to host Leicester City in English Premier League action by respective 4-3 scores. Expect both teams to score with at least one side scoring at least twice which will be enough to reach our Over. 25* English Premier League Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Year with Over the Total in the match between Leicester City (200141) and Wolverhampton (200142). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-29-20 |
Liverpool -1.25 v. West Ham United |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 20 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W22-D1-L0) has won fourteen straight matches in English Premier League action with their 2-1 win at Wolverhampton last Thursday. West Ham (W6-D5-L12) looks to rebound from their 4-1 loss at Leicester City last Wednesday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The big news for the Reds is that they will be missing their star midfielder, Sadio Mane, who injured his hamstring in the match against the Wolves which will keep him out for (at least) their next two EPL contests. But this Liverpool team remains loaded led by Mo Salah in the middle of the pitch along with Robert Firmino up top. Since the start of the 2017-18 EPL season, Salah has scored 14 goals with 11 assists. Salah has also scored six goals with two assists in his last four EPL matches when playing without Mane. Expect this team to step up in Mane’s absence to be play a very focused match as they look to continue their historic campaign. The Reds’ defensive backline remains in tact for this match — they had racked up seven straight clean sheets in EPL action before Wolverhampton scored on them last week. Most of the key starters did not play on Sunday in Liverpool’s 2-2 draw in FA Cup action at Shrewsbury Town — so the players on the pitch today should be rested. And while the FA Cup is not at the forefront of the team’s championship goals this season, they should be feisty to get back to their winning ways in this one. The Reds have won seven of their last fourteen EPL matches by more than one goal. They are W10-D1-L0 on the road in the EPL this season where they have scored 23 times while conceding just six times. Liverpool also takes care of business against the lesser teams in the EPL as they are a perfect W16-D0-L0 against non-Power Six sides while averaging 2.5 Goals-Per-Game in those contests and conceding just 10 times for a 0.62 Goals-Per-Game allowed rate. Eight of those victories against non-Power Six sides have been on the road where they are averaging 2.4 Goals-Per-Game while allowing just just 0.5 Goals-Per-Game. West Ham was crushed by Leicester City despite the Foxes not playing with Jamie Vardy for half that game when he left the pitch with an injury with the score just 1-0. The Hammers have been dealing with injuries — they hope to get back midfielder Robert Snodgrass and goaltender Lukasz Fabianksi for this contest. But midfielder Felipe Anderson will likely miss this game again with his injury which leaves the West Ham offensive attack limited. The Hammers have scored only two combined goals in their last three games — and they have only scored more than one goal in a match just once in their last ten matches.
FINAL TAKE: West Ham has upset Manchester United by a 2-0 score at home this season but that was their only victory in their four home matches against Power Six sides this season. They lost the other three matches at home — and they have been outscored by an 11 to 6 margin in those four matches at home against Power Six teams. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200081) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200082). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-23-20 |
Liverpool v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W21-D1-L0) continued their historic run in the English Premier League this season with their 2-0 victory over Manchester United on Sunday. Wolverhampton (W8-D10-L5) comes off a 3-2 comeback victory at Southampton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have now generated 18 points after finding themselves in a losing position in an EPL match this season — so don’t count out the Over if Liverpool takes an early lead in this game. Wolverhampton had a well-deserved reputation of being a defensive team last season in their first year back promoted to the EPL — but they are playing higher-scoring matches this season. The Wolves have seen at least three combined goals scored in six of their last eight matches. Wolverhampton has a hot striker right now in Raul Jimenez who is in form after scoring two late goals against the Saints to rally his team to victory. The Wolves are 7th in the EPL with 34 goals this season — and they have been held scoreless only twice this season (with one of those matches being the opening match of the season). In their four home matches against Power Six sides this season at Molineux, Wolverhampton has scored seven times. But after being tied for 7th in the EPL in fewest goals allowed at home last season, the Wolves have allowed 15 goals in their eleven home matches this season which is just 13th stingiest in the league at home. Liverpool has registered seven straight clean sheets which will certainly make the Under attractive to many bettors. But the Reds backline looked shaky on Sunday against Manchester United as they were outshot by a 9 to 6 margin with their defenders looking a bit tired late in the match. Liverpool was underachieving for most of the first half of the season when it comes to stopping the opposing offensive attack. Perhaps what jumpstarted that group was the injury to Joel Matip which cleared space to Joe Gomez to take his spot to solidify the Reds’ back four. There has not been an EPL team to win nine straight matches with clean sheets since Manchester United pulled this feat off in February of 2009 — so history may not be on the side of a ninth straight clean sheet for the Reds this afternoon. With the goal-line dropping in many spots to Liverpool only being a -0.5 Goal-Line favorite, many bettors consider the Wolves a live dog. I prefer the wiser investment is redirecting that sentiment into the Over. We should not be surprised if Liverpool scores at least three goals in this match. The Reds have scored 38 times in their fifteen matches against non-Power Six sides this season. Liverpool has also scored 17 times in their seven road matches against non-Power Six clubs in the EPL this year for a 2.43 Goals-Per-Game average.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool did win the first meeting between these two teams at home in Anfield by 1-0 score. Sadio Mane scored in the 42nd minute of that match with the Reds settling in at home in the second half to earn the clean sheet. That was just the second time that the Wolves were held scoreless since the opening week of the season in August. Liverpool has scored at least two goals in eleven of their other twelve matches with another 1-0 win over Tottenham being the other exception. But remember that the Reds’ last two victories over Man United and then the Spurs were against teams without their best scoring attackers in Marcus Rashford and Harry Kane who are both dealing with injuries. I think the Wolves break the Liverpool clean sheet streak this afternoon (but a Liverpool 3-0 result would not be a surprise) — but the chance of a draw or outright upset for Wolverhampton being a higher likelihood than two or less combined goals being scored in this rematch. 25* EPL NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-22-20 |
West Ham United v. Leicester -1 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 32 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (W14-D3-L6) has lost two straight English Premier League matches with their 2-1 loss at Burnley on Sunday. West Ham (W6-D5-L11) comes off a 1-1 draw to Everton on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: The Foxes need a victory after dropping two straight games. This is a team that is a bit out of form — but the circumstances have been a bit strange as well. They took a 1-0 lead at Burnley on Sunday but surrendered two second half goals to lose that contest. Jamie Vardy also missed a penalty shot which would have likely resulted in the draw. Vardy is in a bit of a slump. After their disappointing 4-0 loss at home to Liverpool last month, Vardy then missed two matches to an ankle injury and then for the birth of his child. In his three EPL matches since returning to the pitch, Vardy has managed only three combined shots. Vardy still has 17 goals this season with 6 assists this season — and he has thrived under Brendan Rodgers leadership since he took over as manager last season. Leicester City was also without defender Ben Chilwell and midfielder Hamza Chaudhary after they missed a practice session before that match with Burnley but Rodgers expects them back for this match. The Foxes previous loss last week was at a surging Southampton side — so that is understandable. But Leicester City now finds themselves on both a two-game losing streak and a two-game slide at home at Kings Power Stadium after that loss to Liverpool. The Foxes had been on an W11-D3-L1 run at home — and the six goals they have allowed in their last two home matches is the same number of combined goals they had allowed in their previous thirteen matches at home. Leicester City remains a side that is W7-D2-L2 at home this season while scoring 20 goals an conceding just 11 times. The Foxes also thrive against the bottom teams in the EPL as they own a W12-D2-L2 record against non-Power Six sides while scoring 41 goals in those sixteen matches and conceding just 11 goals. West Ham is W1-D1-L1 since bringing back David Moyes as their manager to begin the new calendar year but they are still fighting off relegation with their mere 23 points which currently has them tied for second-to-last place on the EPL table. The concern for the Hammers is the Expected Goals metric translates into them predicted to have just 19.66 points at this point of the season — so they may actually be overachieving relative to their actions on the pitch. West Ham is W3-D3-L5 in their eleven matches on the road — but their 12 points in those matches far exceeds their Expected Goals prediction of just 7.57 points. The metrics suggest that the Hammers have been rather fortunate in only allowing 34 goals this season given their Expected Goals Allowed comes in at 41.18. Furthermore, while West Ham has allowed only 14 goals on the road, the Expected Goals Allowed away from home jumps to 22.72. The Hammers will not be at full strength for this game either. Their outstanding goalkeeper, Lukas Fabianski, is out with an injury while one of their most creative players on offense in midfielder Felipe Anderson is also out with a back injury.
FINAL TAKE: Leicester City won the initial meeting between these two teams on the road by a 2-1 score on December 28th. West Ham has five losses and one draw in their last six evening kickoffs in EPL play. And Rodgers has not seen three straight losses as a manager in the EPL since November 2014 when he was the skipper for Liverpool. This looks like a bounce-back match for Leicester City against a struggling and undermanned Hammers side. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Leicester City (200066) minus the goal-line versus West Ham (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
01-21-20 |
Newcastle United v. Everton UNDER 2.75 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-152 |
1 h 36 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Tuesday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). THE SITUATION: Newcastle (W8-D5-L10) enters this match coming off a 1-0 win over Chelsea on Saturday. Everton (W8-D5-L10) comes off a 1-1 draw at West Ham on Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Everton will be playing this match undermanned as they currently have been hit with the injury bug. Richarlison is dealing with a knee injury while fellow midfielder Gylfi Sigurdsson has a groin injury. Both players did not play in the match against West Ham — and the team has also been without Alex Iwobi who has been out for over a month. The Toffees are getting nice play out of forward Dominic Calvert-Lewin but he will not have much help on the pitch for this contest with all three of those injured players unlikely to return for this midweek match. Everton has scored just one goal in each of their last three matches. But this group has tightened things up on the other end of the pitch under new manager Carlo Ancelloti. The Toffees are W3-D1-L0 in their four matches since he took over in late December. They have allowed only four goals in those five contests. Furthermore, outside a 2-1 loss at Manchester City, they have allowed more than one goal just once in their last seven matches while registering three clean sheets during that span. Everton returns home for this match where they have scored just 13 times in their eleven matches — but they have only conceded 11 goals in those eleven matches. Newcastle has seen just three combined goals scored in their last two matches. The Magpies have scored only 22 goals this season which is tied for the third lowest in the English Premier League. In their last seven matches, Newcastle has not scored more than one goal in each contest while getting blanked twice during that span. The Magpies now go back on the road where they have scored only 10 times in their eleven matches. Over the last five games on the road, Newcastle has scored just four times while conceding eight goals — and four of those goals were in a 4-1 loss to Manchester City.
FINAL TAKE: This is a rematch of Everton’s 2-1 win at Newcastle back on December 28th. The Toffees host this rematch — and they have seen only fourteen combined goals scored in their seven home matches against non-Power Six sides this season. 25* EPL Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Newcastle United (200049) and Everton (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-27-19 |
Manchester City v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 3 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 17 m |
Show
|
At 2:45 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (12W-2D-4L) has won two straight English Premier League matches with their 3-1 win over Leicester City last Sunday. Wolverhampton (6W-9D-3L) comes off a 2-1 win at Norwich City last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Wolves have scored in seventeen straight EPL matches so the chances are very good they will get on the board against the reigning EPL champions this afternoon. Wolverhampton has played three straight games where at least three combined goals were scored with them scoring five times while conceding five times during that span. And while this team has been know for their defensive prowess, they have only produced one clean sheet in their last ten matches. Wolverhampton has also scored four goals in their three home matches against a Power Six side this season — but they have surrender a whopping eight goals in those three home matches. Overall, the Wolves are 8th in the league with 26 goals. Manchester City leads the EPL with their 50 goals scored. They have scored three goals in each of their last two matches. The Citizens have also seen at least three combined goals scored in nine straight matches this season. Man City has taken a step back on defense this season as they have surrendered 20 goals already which is just 4th best. They have only produced one clean sheet in their last eight matches. Man City should have their star midfielder, Kevin DeBruyne available for this game after he suffered a knock last week. And while Sergio Aguero will not start this afternoon, he is working himself back into game shape after suffering an injury and might be called on as a sub. The Citizens have more than a capable second forward in Brazilian star Gabriel Jesus to use as their striker with KDB and Raheem Sterling also potent scoring threats. Man City has scored 41 goals in their thirteen matches against non-Power Six opponents. And in their seven road matches against non-Power Six foes, Man City is averaging 3.0 Goals-Per-Game while conceding more than one goal per game.
FINAL TAKE: Man City will have revenge on their mind after losing at home to the Wolves back on October 6th by a 2-0 score. They will not be blanked again. I think three combined goals is the worst case scenario with an outstanding chance that Man City scores at least three times (or Wolverhampton scores at least twice). 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200077) and Wolverhampton (200078). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-26-19 |
Liverpool v. Leicester +0.5 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-128 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, we will be playing Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). THE SITUATION: Leicester City (12W-3D-3L) looks to bounce-back from a 3-1 loss at Manchester City on Saturday. Liverpool (16W-1D-0L) take the pitch against English Premier League action since their 2-0 win over Watford back on December 14th.
REASONS TO TAKE LEICESTER CITY PLUS THE GOAL-LINE: Liverpool had their Week 19 fixture pushed back due to their involvement in the Club World Cup in Qatar last week where they lifted the trophy after two relatively easy matches. But the Reds still traveled across the world to accomplish this task last week — and they certainly celebrated adding another trophy to their display case. The fact is that Liverpool would be absolutely thrilled with a one-goal victory while being quite content with a draw considering that they are 10 points ahead in the table over this second place Leicester City team. The Reds’ only blemish in EPL action this season is a 1-1 draw at Manchester United — so this team may be due for the proverbial letdown. The analytics naturally indicate that they are overachieving — the Expected Goal metric projects they should have 34.15 points at this point of the season as compared to their near perfect 49 points they have compiled in their first eighteen matches. Liverpool has also won eight straight matches in EPL play on the road — but xG analysis projects them overachieving with 22 points on the road as opposed to their 14.71 number. The Reds are also dealing with some injuries right now with the most significant being to midfielder Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain who suffered a knock last week in Qatar. Leicester City had won eight straight matches in EPL play before engaging in a disappointing 1-1 draw at home with Norwich City before last week’s loss at Man City. Those three goals they surrendered to the reigning EPL champions was as many as they had allowed in their last eight matches combined. Now they return home where they are unbeaten in nine matches with a 7W-2D-0L mark while scoring 19 goals and conceding just five times. First-year manager Brendan Rodgers has been just what this franchise needed since taking over last February. He has unleashed forward Jamie Vardy who has generated a scoring return in 10 straight matches while scoring at least one goal in nine of those EPL contests. Vardy also loves facing this Liverpool team. He missed last year’s home fixture with the Reds due to suspension but he had scored five combined goals in his previous three home matches against Liverpool. The Foxes have not lost to a Power Six EPL side at home since Rodgers took over the helm with three of those matches being outright victories. Leicester City has scored seven goals in those four home matches against a Power-Six side while conceding just two goals.
FINAL TAKE: With Boxing Day representing the midpoint of the season, this is a rematch of the first meeting between these two teams on October 5th at Liverpool where the Reds defeated the Foxes by a narrow 2-1 score. Leicester City is catching Liverpool at perhaps an opportune time to where they could pull the upset — but at least a draw seems likely. 25* EPL Boxing Day Match of the Year with Leicester City (200074) plus the Goal-Line versus Liverpool (200073). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
12-04-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester United +0.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 7 m |
Show
|
At 2:30 PM ET on Wednesday, we will be playing Manchester United (200106) with the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200105). THE SITUATION: Manchester United (W4-6D-4L) enters this match coming off a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa last Sunday. Tottenham (W5-D5-L4) looks to build off their 3-2 win over Bournemouth last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE MANCHESTER UNITED WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Red Devils have endured two straight draws to two promoted sides against Aston Villa and a 3-3 final score with Sheffield United. The conventional wisdom is that this Manchester United team is underachieving with just four victories so far this season. Their 18 points after fourteen matches is their slowest start since 1988-89. But this team has been hit hard with injuries particularly with Anthony Martial missing a handful of matches in the fall. This team is much better when Martial joins forward Marcus Rashford. The Red Devils remain unbeaten in their last three matches while also sporting a W2-D3-L1 mark over their last six EPL matches. This team tends to underachieve against the lesser teams — but they are also unbeaten with a W1-D2-L0 mark in their three matches against a Power-Six side this season. Man United was impressive in a 1-1 draw against Liverpool in their last match against a Power Six team. This Red Devils team should be extremely motivated to play well with this being their first opportunity to face Jose Mourinho since he was sacked as their manager last year. Mourinho did not gel with most of the players on this roster. Tottenham has responded by winning their first two EPL matches under Mourinho since the club fired Mauricio Pochettino with their victory over West Ham before their win over the Cherries last week. But this team had gone their five previous EPL matches winless. Its seems apparent that the team quit playing hard for the demanding Pochettino. But this is also an aging roster that has gotten stuck on same bad contracts without replenishing the group with younger talent. The Spurs are just W0-D2-L1 in their three matches against a Power Six team this season. Tottenham is also just W1-D3-L3 on the road this season while being outscored by a 10 to 14 goal margin. Last year, this team was a mediocre W11-D0-L8 in their nineteen road matches while posting an ugly W1-D0-L4 mark in their five road matches against a Power Six side.
FINAL TAKE: Manchester United should play inspired soccer this afternoon and take at least a point in their opportunity to show-up a Mourinho-coached team — but don’t be surprised if the Red Devils pull off the upset at home at Old Trafford. 25* EPL Midweek NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Manchester United (200106) with the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200105). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-27-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Liverpool -1 |
Top |
1-2 |
Push |
0 |
0 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (8W-1D-0L) saw their seventeen match winning streak in English Premier League action snapped last Sunday with their 1-1 draw at Manchester United. Tottenham (3W-3D-3L) comes off a listless 1-1 draw at home against Watford last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: It looks like the nice run for the Spurs is slowing coming to the end. Tottenham is just in 10th place in the EPL standings with their 12 points. The cohesion with this team on the pitch appears to be fraying with the sam group of players still together over the last few years. Manager Mauricio Pachettino is rumored to be interested in the Real Madrid job where he will be managing a club that is more willing to spend on free agents. While the Spurs come off an easy 5-0 win in Champions League play over Crvena Zvezda during the week, the grind of the Champions League schedule over the last two seasons may be wearing on this team that has to rely on their superstars for both CL and EPL matches. This is a team that is particularly struggling on the road where they are winless with two draws and two losses this season while scoring five goals and conceding nine times. Tottenham has also thrived against the lesser teams in the EPL but have struggled against the top notch competition. Since the beginning of 2018-19 campaign, the Spurs are just 2W-3D-7L in their twelve matches against Big Six sides while scoring 14 times and conceding 19 goals. And in their last seven road matches against Big Six teams in the EPL, Tottenham is just 1W-2D-4L. Liverpool will be anxious to get a decisive win after seeing their perfect EPL campaign scathed with the draw last week at Manchester United. The Reds are very tough back at home at Anfield where they have won all four of their matches while outscoring these opponents by a 12 to 4 margin. Liverpool is 21W-2D-0L in their last twenty-three matches at home in EPL play. And in their last six matches at home against Big Six sides, the Reds have won five of those matches with just one draw while outscoring these opponents by a 15 to 4 margin.
FINAL TAKE: Tottenham is without their top flight goaltender, Hugo Lloris, who is out the rest of 2019 with an injury. Liverpool is fully committed to winning the EPL championship after defeating Tottenham for the Champions League title last spring in those finals. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with the Liverpool (200034) minus the Goal-Line versus the Tottenham Hotspurs (200033). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
10-21-19 |
Arsenal v. Sheffield United UNDER 2.5 |
Top |
0-1 |
Win
|
105 |
1 h 30 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (4W-3D-1L) returns to English Premier League action after the international break from a 1-0 victory over Bournemouth back on October 6th. Sheffield United (2W-3D-3L) comes off a 0-0 draw at Watford back on October 5th.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Arsenal is unbeaten in their last five matches as they have embraced more defensive tactics under second-year manager Unai Emery. The Gunners have scored only one goal in their last two matches while conceding just two goals. The offensive attack has been limited with forward Alexandre Lacazette being injured — and he will be on the bench for this match. Arsenal also has Pierre-Emerick Aubemeyang who is a prolific scorer but who also has a low ceiling regarding his potential offensive output. Aubemeyang has not registered more than two shots on target in a match all season. The Gunners are 6th in the league by averaging 13.5 shots per game — but that number drops significantly to just 8.5 shots per game when they are playing on the road which is 10th in the EPL. Arsenal also averages just 3.5 shots on target per match on the road which is also 10th in the league. They now face a feisty Sheffield United side which is tied for first with only seven goals conceded this season. While this team was promoted from the Championship League last season, this is a dangerous team under manager Chris Wilder who played Liverpool to a narrow 1-0 loss earlier this year. Sheffield has allowed only two goals in their last two matches — but they have also scored only two goals in those four matches while being shut out three times. Sheffield has scored only seven times in their eight matches which is third to last in the league. They average just 9.8 shots per match which is third-to-last. Furthermore, this side averages 2.5 shots on target per match which is the second-fewest in the league — and that number only climbs to a 2.8 mark at home which is also 19th of the twenty team league. In their four home matches, Sheffield has scored only two goals — but they have conceded just four goals. And in their two matches against Power Six clubs this season, Sheffield has allowed only three combined goals.
FINAL TAKE: Sheffield United will be very happy to deploy their defensive tactics to engage in another low-scoring match that they can perhaps steal with a goal on the counter-attack. Arsenal does not play aggressively in hostile environments — Emery’s approach will likely be to have his team stick around until the skill of Aubemeyang eventually finds the back of the net. This is a great formula for a lower scoring match. 25* EPL Monday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between Arsenal (200077) and Sheffield United (20008). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-30-19 |
Arsenal +0.5 v. Manchester United |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 38 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Arsenal (200045) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200046). THE SITUATION: Arsenal (W3-D2-L1) enters this seventh week of the English Premier League season coming off a 3-2 victory over Aston Villa last Sunday. Manchester United (W2-D2-L2) looks to bounce-back from a 2-0 loss at West Ham last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE ARSENAL WITH THE GOAL-LINE: Manchester United is a M*A*S*H unit right now — they are ravaged with injuries. The Red Devils opened the season with plenty of optimism after a dominant 4-0 victory at home against Chelsea. The scoring combination of manager’s Gunnar Solskjaer’s young forwards Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial offered optimism for this side this season. But Martial has not played since Week Three after he suffered a thigh injury that has kept him off the pitch for over a month. Rashford suffered a groin injury last week that pulled him off the pitch after 60 minutes in their loss to West Ham — he has been declared out for this match. And then a sprained ankle to star midfielder Paul Pogba on Wednesday in their Caribou Cup match with Rochdale leaves him very much in doubt for this match. With the Red Devils top three offensive players likely out for this match, who is going to score for Solskjaer? This is an opportunity for Mason Greenwood at forward yet he has only played 47 minutes this season — and he has not registered a point nor an assist in that time in his first year on the roster. Solskjaer was already dealing with a host of injuries headlined by defenseman Luke Shaw has not played since Week Three when he left the pitch with a hamstring injury. Familiar names like Alexis Sanchez and Chris Smalling were loaned out for the year with the expectation of the youth movement taking hold. The fact is that this is a roster of a second-tier team — and that assumes that mostly everyone is healthy. It is telling that the Red Devils could only manage a 1-1 draw with an underwhelming Rochdale side despite the match being played at home at Old Trafford. West Ham surgically tore Man United apart last week. As it is, the Red Devils were just W1-D4-L4 against fellow Big Six teams last year while scoring only eight times and allowing 18 goals. And on their home pitch last season against the Big Six teams, Man United was winless with a W0-D3-L2 mark with just three goals and eight goals conceded. This is an organization that collapsed under the weight of their moody manager Jose Mourinho last fall. They finished in sixth place to end the season in large part because they feasted on the lesser teams in the league. But those accomplishments still required their best players to healthy. Arsenal is dealing with their own health issues Alexandre Lacazette out with an ankle injury. And it does not help that Ainsley Maitland-Niles is suspended for this game after he was issued a red card in their victory over Aston Villa last week. The Gunners deserve credit for rallying from a 2-1 deficit despite playing with only ten men on the pitch given that red card penalty late in the first half. The best two players on the pitch for this match — by far — will be Arsenal’s forward, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and midfielder, Nicolas Pepe. Aubameyang scored 22 times last season and has already scored six goals this year with his game-winner at the 84-minute mark last Sunday in that win over the Villains. The Gunners were then in fine form midweek with their 5-0 win over Nottingham Forest in Caribou Cup action. Arsenal is W1-D1-L1 in their three matches on the road this year with a 3-1 loss to Liverpool sandwiched by a 1-0 win over Newcastle and a 2-2 draw with Watford. Last year, the Gunners were W7-D4-L8 in their nineteen road matches. And they fared better than Man United against Big Six sides last year with a W3-D3-L4 overall record.
FINAL TAKE: These are similar teams in that they are two Big Six organizations that are in rebuild mode having taken a step (or two) back from Manchester City and Liverpool. But the Gunners are still relatively healthy and probably six months ahead of schedule in their reorganization after moving on from their longtime manager Arsene Wagner to bring in Emery last summer. Keeping Solskjaer seemed to be a stop-gap measure this summer after he was able to coax better efforts from players like Pogba and Rashford after Mourinho was sacked. What is the Red Devils plan with those two players (and Martial) unavailable? Arsenal will have a significant talent edge in this match after defeating them by a 2-0 score at home after earning a 2-2 draw against them in their two EPL matches last season. 25* English Premier League Match of the Month with Arsenal (200045) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200046). Best of luck for us — Frank.
|
09-22-19 |
Liverpool v. Chelsea OVER 2.5 |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 13 m |
Show
|
At 11:30 AM ET on Sunday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). THE SITUATION: Liverpool (W5-D0-L0) remained perfect so far in the English Premier League last Saturday with their 3-1 win at home over Newcastle. Chelsea (W2-D3-L1) comes off a dominant 5-2 win at Wolverhampton last Saturday.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: The Blues were led by Tammy Abraham who registered a hat trick to lead the way in that big victory over the Wolves. Abraham has already scored seven times for Frank Lampard’s side to give this Chelsea team a scoring threat at forward they have not had since Diego Costa helped them win an EPL championship a few seasons ago. The Blues have scored ten goals in their last three matches as they are finding plenty of scoring opportunities in Lampard’s system. Chelsea is third in the EPL by averaging 16.5 shots per match — and that number rises to 18.7 shots per game when they play at home at Stamford Bridge. But the Blues have also allowed eleven goals this season which is the second-most in the EPL. Lampard’s tactics are leaving this Chelsea team vulnerable in the midfield when they are not possessing the football — and that is a terrifying prospect for them when now facing Mo Salah and Sadio Mane of this powerful Liverpool team. The Reds have scored fifteen goals this season — and the reigning Champions League titleholders are second in the EPL by averaging 18.2 shots per game. Liverpool has seen six combined goals scored in their two road matches this season where they are average 15 shots per match which is also second in the league. An area of concern for this Reds team this season as they strive to win the EPL championship has been the play of their backline which has not been quite as stout as their play of last year. Liverpool has only one clean sheet this season as they have been relying on their prolific scoring attack that has netted at least three goals in four of their five matches.
FINAL TAKE: Chelsea has scored in nineteen of their last twenty matches with Liverpool across all competitions. Expect a higher scoring match. 25* EPL Sunday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Liverpool (200017) and Chelsea (200018). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-20-19 |
AFC Bournemouth v. Southampton OVER 2.5 |
Top |
3-1 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 31 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). THE SITUATION: Bournemouth (W2-D1-L2) looks to build off a 3-1 win over Everton last Sunday. Southampton (W2-D1-L2) comes off a 1-0 win over Sheffield City.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Bournemouth has seen each of their last four matches combine for at least three goals scored. The Cherries have scored seven times in those four matches while conceding eight times. With forwards Callum Wilson and Joshua King along with midfielder Ryan Fraser, this Bournemouth team has three players who can score goals — they ranked 7th in the EPL in goals scored last season. But the Cherries are porous on defense. Last season, Bournemouth allowed the third-most goals in the English Premier League. In their nineteen road matches, the Cherries scored 26 times while conceding a whopping 45 goals. Furthermore, in their thirteen road matches against non-Big Six sides, Bournemouth scored 23 goals while conceding 23 times. This season, the Cherries have allowed 15.2 shots per match which is fifth-most in the EPL. That number gets worse on the road where Bournemouth has allowed 19 shots per match which is fourth-most in the league. Southampton also gives up a ton of shots — they allow 15 shots per match which is 6th most in the league. At home, the Saints allowed 18 shots per game which is the second-highest number in the EPL. Southampton conceded the sixth-most shots in the EPL. In their nineteen home matches last year, the Saints scored 27 goals while conceding 30 times.
FINAL TAKE: These two sides last played back on April 27th where Southampton hosted at St. Mary’s in a match that resulted in a 3-3 draw. Expect another higher-scoring match with at least three combined goals scored. 25* EPL Friday NBC Sports Network Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Bournemouth (20001) and Southampton (20002). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-16-19 |
West Ham United v. Aston Villa UNDER 3 |
Top |
0-0 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 33 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). THE SITUATION: West Ham (W2-D1-L1) returns to English Premier League after the international break after defeating Norwich City by a 2-0 score on August 31st. Aston Villa (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce-back from their 1-0 loss at Crystal Palace back on August 31st in EPL action.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: West Ham’s clean sheet against Norwich City looks even more impressive now after the promoted upstarts upset Manchester City on Saturday while scoring three goals against the two-time defending champions. After an opening week 5-0 loss at home to Man City, the Hammers have conceded only two goals in their next three matches. Now West Ham goes back on the road where they fifteen of their last seventeen games on the road in EPL action have not seen more than three combined goals. Furthermore, West Ham is averaging just 1.5 Goals-Per-Game in their last fourteen games on the road against the non-Big Six teams in the EPL going back to the start of last season — and they are conceding just 1.29 Goals-Per-Game in those contests. Aston Villa has seen three of their four matches this season see three or less combined goals scored with the lone exception being against one of the Power Six sides in Tottenham. The Villains were promoted from the Championship League last year via their playoffs. Aston Villa conceded more goals at home than the last-place team in that league so management realized that upgrading the backend was essential for the team’s return to the EPL after a three-year absence. The Villains added left-back Matt Targett from Southampton while received center back Tyrone Mings on loan from Bournemouth. They also made a nice upgrade with their keeper by adding Tom Heaton from the crowded goalie situation at Burnley. Manager Dean Smith is probably playing his star man midfielder, Jack Grealish, 10 to 15 yards too far back on the pitch — but that demonstrates his commitment to defensive tactics for this team. Aston Villa has scored only three times in their four matches — but they have only allowed three combined goals in their three matches outside their 3-1 loss to the Spurs. The Villains rank a respectable 11th in the EPL in Expected Goals Allowed (xGA)— but this has come at a cost of offense as they also rank second-to-last in Expected Goals (xG). In their two home matches this season, Aston Villa has allowed only two goals while scoring just three times.
FINAL TAKE: I do not see four combined goals scored in this match with the Villains playing cautiously and quite content to register a point with a draw. Look for this match to have two goals (or less) scored with less than ten minutes left where we will then be sweating the win or living with the Push. 25* EPL Monday Afternoon NBC-Sports Network Total of the Month with Under the Total in the game between West Ham (200189) and Aston Villa (200190). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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09-14-19 |
Manchester City v. Norwich City OVER 4 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 10 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). THE SITUATION: Manchester City (W3-D1-L0) returns from the international break coming off a 4-0 victory at home over Brighton and Hove Albion two Saturdays ago. Norwich City (W1-D0-L3) looks to bounce back from a 2-0 loss to West Ham back on August 31st.
REASONS TO TAKE OVER THE TOTAL: Norwich City was prompted from the Championship League after finishing in first place in that league. The Canaries accomplished that feat with an aggressive attack with manager Daniel Farke emphasizing shot volume. Their average match last season saw 3.26 combined goals which is the highest number for a promoted side into the English Premier League in ten seasons. But this style of play had consequences as this side was leaky on defense — they conceded 57 goals last year which was the third most in that league. Farke has not backed down with this style of play against EPL competition — they rank tied for 6th in the EPL with six goals. Furthermore, the Canaries average 5.3 shots per game on target which is 6th best in the league — and that number rises to 6.5 shots on target per game when playing at home which ranks 4th best in the EPL. They are led by their feisty forward, Teemu Pukki who has scored five times already this season. Don’t be surprised if Norwich City scores a goal in this game. But they will likely concede at least four goals against the reigning EPL champions. The Canaries have allowed ten goals in their four matches this season which is the most in the EPL. The 47 shots they have allowed in the box also tops the league. Playing at home did not make much of a difference last season either as the 34 goals they allowed which was 15th worst in the league. To compound matters, this Norwich City side is ravaged with injuries in their midfield and their defense. Defensemen Max Aarons has a knock from international play over the break while Ben Godfrey who is out with a groin injury — and that challenges the limited depth of this promoted side on their backline. And here comes Manchester City with a rested Sergio Aguero who did not play for Argentina over the break with that national team going young after years of disappointment in international play. A rested Aguero — who will absolutely play with fellow forward Gabriel Jesus dealing with a thigh injury — should have a field day against this defense. Aguero has scored in all four of the Citizens matches this season. Man City is 2nd in the EPL in goals scored with 14 — and they lead the EPL in Expected Goals scored (xG). Additionally, Man City leads the EPL with 19.35 shots per game — and they lead the league with 7.5 shots per game on target. As scary as this sounds, this team maybe even better than last year’s group with midfielder extraordinaire Kevin DeBruyne now fully healthy again after he dealt with injuries last season. DeBruyne is an assist machine who may have the best foot 40 yards away in the world. Manchester City scored 75 goals last season in their 29 matches against the non-Big Six sides last season. If there is a weakness with this side, it is with their backline with manager Pep Guardiola still searching for four reliable starters who play well together. An injury to Aymeric Laporte takes away one of their best defenders for this match.
FINAL TAKE: To Farke’s credit — or demise — he will not deviate from his strategy of attacking the opposition and having his defensive line play aggressively up the pitch. Norwich City will not play for a nil-nil draw — but they are likely to see a 4-1 (or worse) result. 25* English Premier League Saturday NBC-TV Total of the Month with Over the Total in the match between Manchester City (200193) and Norwich City (200194). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-19-19 |
Manchester United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 |
Top |
1-1 |
Win
|
100 |
0 h 12 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Monday, we will be playing Wolverhampton (200066) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200065). THE SITUATION: Wolverhampton (W0-D1-L0) comes off a 0-0 draw in their opening match last week against Leicester City. Manchester United (W1-D0-L0) looks to build off the momentum of their 4-0 victory over Chelsea last Sunday.
REASONS TO TAKE WOLVERHAMPTON WITH THE GOAL-LINE: The Wolves parked the proverbial bus on the road last week to pull out the one-point result against the Foxes. Now Wolverhampton returns home to Molineaux where they were very tough to beat last season — and manager Nuno Espirito Santo is comfortable with having his team play more aggressively on the pitch. The Wolves were W10-D4-L5 in their nineteen home matches last season. They also closed out the EPL campaign last year by going W6-D2-L0 in their last eight matches at home where they scored 16 goals and surrendered just six goals. Wolverhampton was also a giant killer last season — they were W7-D4-L4 in their fifteen matches against the Big Six teams while going W3-D1-L2 in their six home matches against these top six sides. Man United is feeling very good about themselves after their clean sheet blowout victory over Chelsea. But that match was much closer on the pitch than that final score suggests. The Red Devils could have easily surrendered two or three goals in that contest. The Blues controlled possession for 53.8% of that match while outshooting them by an 18 to 11 margin (7 to 5 with shots on target). Frankly, outside the first 20 minutes in their match yesterday with Leicester City, Chelsea has looked very vulnerable this season. Now Man United goes on the road away from Old Trafford where they were not nearly as good. The Red Devils were W9-D3-L7 in their nineteen matches on the road last season while only outscoring those opponents by a 32 to 29 margin. Man United was just W0-D1-L3 in their last four matches on the road in the EPL last year.
FINAL TAKE: Wolverhampton comes off a 4-0 victory last Thursday in Europa League action while managing to rest their key starters for this match. The Wolves were W2-D1-L0 in their three matches against Man United last season with their last meeting being a 2-1 victory at home against the Red Devils back on April 2nd. Don’t be surprised if Wolverhampton wins this match straight-up. 25* English Premier League Monday NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with the Wolverhampton (200066) with the Goal-Line versus Manchester United (200065). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-17-19 |
Tottenham Hotspur v. Manchester City UNDER 3 |
Top |
2-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
1 h 3 m |
Show
|
At 12:30 PM ET on Saturday, we will be playing Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). THE SITUATION: Tottenham (W1-D0-L0) won their opening match last Saturday with their 3-1 victory over Aston Villa. Manchester City (W1-D0-L0) began the defense of their 2018-19 English Premier League championship with a 5-0 victory at West Ham.
REASONS TO TAKE UNDER THE TOTAL: Tottenham is undermanned for this match with Dele Alli, Ryan Sessegnon, and Ben Davies all dealing with injuries while Juan Foyth and Son Heung-min ineligible to play as they finish out respective suspensions. The Spurs still have a healthy Harry Kane who scored twice in the final five minutes of their match with the promoted Aston Villa side to escape with that 3-1 victory. The Tottenham offensive attack was sluggish for most of that match until Christian Eriksen took the pitch to offer Kane a passing combination from the midfield. The Spurs scored only 10 goals in their ten EPL matches last season against one of the Big Six opponents. However, Tottenham’s defense was solid in those matches as they surrendered only 15 goals in those ten matches against the Big Six. Only two of those ten matches saw more than three combined goals scored with five of those matches seeing no more than two combined goals scored by both teams. Manager Mauricio Pochettino typically has his team embrace defensive tactics in these high-profile matches — and that will even more likely be the case given that his starting XI is not his best possible group. Manchester City produced another clean sheet last Saturday by blanking West Ham. The Citizens were second in the EPL last season by allowing only 29 goals in their thirty-eight matches all season. Man City’s defense plays consistently well even against the best competition in the league. Manchester City allowed only five goals in their ten matches against Power Six sides — and they surrendered a mere three goals in their five home matches against these Big Six teams. Pep Guardiola is also dealing with some injuries with Leroy Sane out as he prepares for knee surgery and Benjamin Mendy still working on his game fitness.
FINAL TAKE: These teams and managers are very familiar with each other. They faced off against each other three times in a twelve-day stretch last April with one EPL match and the two-legs of their Championship League Semifinals clash. Two of those matches ended in 1-0 results with Tottenham winning the opening match at home in that Champions League clash on April 9th before Man City avenged losing that semifinals showdown with a 1-0 victory in EPL play on April 20th. The Spurs advanced to the Champions League Finals by the road team goals scored tie-breaker after a 4-3 result at Man City on April 17th in a wild game where the Citizens needed to win by at least two goals. That result was a bit of an aberration given the urgency Manchester City had to win by two goals (after the Spurs registered a goal on the road). Expect the defensive tactics of those other two April matches serve as the template for this encounter. 25* English Premier League NBC-TV Total of the Month with Under the Total in the match between the Tottenham Hotspurs (200049) and Manchester City (200050). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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08-09-19 |
Norwich City v. Liverpool -2 |
Top |
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
115 h 48 m |
Show
|
At 3:00 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing Liverpool (20002) minus the Goal-Line versus Norwich City (20001). Liverpool (W0-D0-L0) hosts the opening match of the 2019-20 English Premier League at their Anfield Stadium. Norwich City (W0-D0-L0) is one of the three promoted teams to be entering the EPL this season.
REASONS TO TAKE LIVERPOOL MINUS THE GOAL-LINE: Norwich City earned their promotion to the EPL by winning the Championship League last year with 94 points after being projected to finish mid-table at the beginning of the year. The Canaries have an excellent manager in Daniel Farke who oversaw a dramatic improvement in his club in his second year with the team. Their Sporting Director, Stuart Webber, made it a point this summer to not make the mistake that Fulham made last year by spending lots of money in the transfer window with the goal of upgrading the team to then only see them relegated again by finishing in the bottom three in the EPL table. Instead, Webber signed extension contracts to the core group of his young players with the hopes of laying the foundation of a multiple-year run in the EPL. That might be the prudent choice — but that does not bode well for this team in their early matches. This Norwich City group lacks big names and top-level experience so they will likely be overmatched by the reigning European Champions League champions. Many managers would then play to park the proverbial bus in back to play a cautious game — but that is not the style of Farke who likes to see his team attack in his 4-2-3-1 formation. The average score for the Canaries last season averaged 3.26 combined goals scored per game which is the highest number for a promoted side entering the EPL in the last ten seasons. The Norwich City defense was a bit leaky last year with their fullbacks, Jamal Lewis and Max Aarons, empowered to creep up the pitch to support the attack. The Canaries surrendered 57 goals last year which was more than even a Stoke City side that finished in 16th place in the Championship League. Only four teams allowed more goals on Set Pieces as well — and they make their debut against the brilliant Jurgen Klopp who drew up seventeen Set Piece goals for the Reds last season. And given their lacking quality in the center of the field with their midfield, Liverpool’s outstanding trio of scorers in Mohamad Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino is primed to have a field day against this team that will be experiencing a dramatic uptick in the quality of their typical opponent. Salah and Mane tied for the Golden Boot Award for the most goals scored in the EPL with 22 — and Firmino added another 12 goals himself. The 89 goals scored by the Reds were the second-most in the EPL. But what made Klopp’s team special was their continued improved play on defense as they led the EPL by allowing only 22 goals — and this is why I prefer laying the goal-line with the favorites in this match rather than taking the Over because Liverpool may very well earn a clean sheet in this opening match. The Reds were a dominant W17-D2-L0 in their nineteen matches at home last year in the EPL where they scored 55 goals while conceding just 10 times. Liverpool was also dominant against the non-Big Six teams in the league where they were W24-D3-L0 with 72 goals scored and just 14 goals allowed. The numbers were even more pronounced in the fourteen matches that Liverpool hosted one of the teams that finished in the bottom fourteen sides (apart from the Power Six franchises) as they were W13-D1-L0 against these teams while scoring 72 times and conceding just seven times for a dominating 3.07-0.50 averaging final score. The Pool Boys won seven of these fourteen matches against non-Big Six teams at home by at least three goals with two more of those matches being settled by two goals.
FINAL TAKE: Liverpool has also been the fastest starting team in the EPL under Klopp. The Reds have scored 11 combined goals in their last three opening weekends to the new EPL season. They should be amped to make a statement in this premier spot on Friday that opens the new season with their sights clearly on getting over the top to win their first EPL championship in three decades. Norwich has surrendered 24 combined goals in their last six meetings with Liverpool teams that were not as potent as this current group. 25* EPL Friday Afternoon NBC Sports Network Match of the Month with Liverpool (20002) minus the Goal-Line versus Norwich City (20001). Best of luck for us — Frank.
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