Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-27-18 | Virginia v. Duke -4 | 65-63 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Duke - I like the value here with the Blue Devils laying a short number at home against Virginia in Saturday's huge ACC showdown. Duke was widely considered the most talented team in the country coming into the season and they haven't disappointed. The fact that the Cavaliers are 19-1 is certainly helping us here and I'm not saying Virginia isn't a good team, I just don't think they can keep it this close against Duke on their home floor. The Blue Devils are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, where they are averaging 96 ppg. As good as the Cavaliers are defensively, they haven't seen anything like what Duke is going to bring to the table on Saturday and I don't think they have the offensive fire-power to keep pace. Adding to all of this is a great system backing a fade of Virginia here. Road underdogs who are an excellent defensive team, allowing 63 or less points/game, and fresh off a game where they held their opponent to 50 or less are just 16-46 (26%) ATS when facing an average defensive team that allows 67-74 points/game. Take Duke! |
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01-26-18 | 76ers v. Spurs -3.5 | 97-78 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
3* NBA 76ers/Spurs HEAVY HITTER on Spurs - I just think this is too good a price to pass up on San Antonio. The Spurs might be without Ginobili, Gay and Leonard, but they come in having won 2 straight and are 20-3 SU and 16-6 ATS at home this season. I just feel this line is a lot lower than it should be due to the fact the 76ers come in off a blowout win and cover over Chicago and are 8-2 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 overall. Only 3 of those 8 wins came on the road and two were against struggling teams in Denver and Phoenix and the other was the Celtics without Irving. San Antonio is 6-1 ATS last 7 at home, 11-5-1 ATS last 17 vs the Eastern Conference and 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 when playing with 1 day of rest. Spurs are also 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games vs strong rebounding teams who are averaging 3+ rebounds more than their opponents on the season. Take San Antonio! |
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01-26-18 | Lakers v. Bulls -4 | 108-103 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Bulls - I really like the value here with Chicago as a short home favorite against the Lakers on Friday. The Bulls are simply a much better team than their 18-30 record would suggest. This team has been playing so well of late a a lot of people forget they started out the season 3-20. I just don't think they are getting enough respect here at home. A big reason for that is the Lakers enter this contest having won 3 straight and are 7-2 in their last 9 games. What people overlook when looking at how well they have been playing, is that 6 of those 7 wins came on their home floor. The only road victory was an overtime win at Dallas, who owns one of the worst records in the league. LA is also still without starting point guard Lonzo Ball and I think they will miss him even more on the road. Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 home games and 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. Lakers are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Chicago! |
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01-26-18 | Dartmouth +6.5 v. Brown | 62-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dartmouth + I like the value here with the Big Green as a decently priced road dog against the Bears on Friday. Dartmouth is getting zero love here due to the fact that they are just 4-11 overall and have lost 5 straight. The key here is that Brown is a team they can not only hang with on the road, but beat outright. The Big Green lost by just 5 points in their last game, but failed to cover as a 4.5-point dog. They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they didn't cover, 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 off a SU defeat and 13-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons when they come into a game having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7. Take Dartmouth! |
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01-26-18 | St. Peter's +6.5 v. Rider | Top | 60-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Small Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Peter's + I love the value and the spot here with the Peacocks catching a big number here on the road against the Broncs. St. Peter's comes in having lost 4 straight, but have been a lot more competitive than you would think for a team on a 4-game skid. All 4 losses came by 12-points or less, including a mere 4-point loss at home to Rider. Revenge is a big time motivator in college sports and I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Peacocks returned the favor and won this game outright. The road team has dominated this series, going 27-10-2 ATS in the last 39 meetings, with St. Peter's going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 trips to Rider. The Peacocks are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games off a loss. The Broncs are also just 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games after 3 or more consecutive wins and 5-15 ATS in their last 20 off a close road win by 3 points or less. Take St. Peter's! |
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01-25-18 | Santa Clara +9 v. San Diego | 58-66 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Late Night BAILOUT B-L-O-W-O-U-T on Santa Clara + I like the value here with the Broncos catching near double-digits on the road against the Toreros. While San Diego comes in with an overall record of just 7-13, they are 4-4 in conference play. The Broncos lost 60-75 at home to the Gonzaga in their last game, but did cover as a 20 point dog. Santa Clara is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off a conference loss and 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games off a loss by 15 or more points. San Diego on the other hand is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of the Broncos. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are off a cover where they lost outright are 66-33 (67%) ATS when facing a team off a road loss by 10 or more points. Take Santa Clara! |
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01-25-18 | Knicks v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | 118-130 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Knicks UNDER I like the value here with the UNDER in Thursday's NBA action that has the Nuggets hosting the Knicks. Denver has really been struggling offensively here of late. They have scored 105 or fewer points in 7 straight games and have shot 41% or worse from the field 5 times during this stretch. While the Knicks aren't a great defensive team, Denver has been struggling against teams who are just as bad on that side of the ball. Add in the fact that over the last 15 games both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency and I think we have a game that could struggle to see 200 combined points. UNDER is 14-6 in the Nuggets 20 games this season as a home favorite, 15-4 in their last 19 when revenging a loss and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 when playing on a full 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER! |
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01-25-18 | Northeastern +1 v. Hofstra | Top | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
5* NCAAB CAA (Colonial) GAME OF THE MONTH on Northeastern + I love the value here with the Huskies at basically a pick'em here against the Pride. Northeastern is tied with William & Mary on top the CAA and red-hot right now having won 3 straight, which includes a 20-point road win over William & Mary. I look for the Huskies to have no problem here coming away with a win against Hofstra. The Pride upset Northeastern on the road earlier this season, which only adds more fuel to the fire here for the Huskies. Hofstra failed to cover in their last game and that's worth noting, as they are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games after failing to cover the spread. The Pride are also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games overall and 3-15 ATS over the last 3 seasonswhen playing for just the second time in a week stretch. Adding to all of this is a great system in play on the Huskies. Road teams who are listed at +3 to -3 that are revenging a home loss and have won each of their last 2 games by 10 or more points are 30-9 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Northeastern! |
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01-25-18 | Quinnipiac +2 v. Marist | Top | 85-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Quinnipiac + I like the value with the Bobcats at basically a pick'em here against the Red Foxes. While Quinnipiac is just 2-9 on the road, Marist is just 3-5 at home and have just 1 win in their last 6 games. They are also just 2-8 in their last 10 overall. Bobcats come into this one off a 76-69 win at home over Siena as a 2-point favorite and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a contest in which they covered the spread. The Bobcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record, while the Red Foxes are a mere 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Quinnipiac! |
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01-25-18 | William & Mary +7 v. Towson | 82-96 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational ATS NO BRAINER on William & Mary + I like the value here with the Tribe catching what I feel is way too many points here against the Tigers. This line would suggest that Towson is the much better team. I don't think that's the case at all. William & Mary is 6-2 in conference play, while the Tigers are just 4-4 and fresh off a loss as a 5.5-point favorite at Wilmington. The Tribe on the other hand just won by 7 on the road as a dog against Elon and are now 6-4 away from home this season. Tribe are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games after scoring 80 or more points, 7-0 ATS after a game where they shot 50% or better from the field and 10-0 ATS in their last 10 when revenging a loss. Take William & Mary! |
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01-24-18 | Auburn v. Missouri -2 | 91-73 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Missouri - I like the value here with Missouri as a short home favorite against Auburn on Wednesday. Missouri has been better than most expected after losing star freshman Michael Porter Jr and as a result have been undervalued in a number of their games. I really like them here at home at basically a pick'em, as they are 9-1 on their home floor this season. Auburn comes in at 17-2 and have been a big surprise, but I also think they aren't quite as good as their record would suggest. Auburn played a really weak non-conference schedule and have yet to face the elite teams in the SEC. They recently lost at Alabama as a 5-point favorite and struggled in their previous road game against a mediocre Mississippi State team. Take Missouri! |
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01-24-18 | Rockets -5.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR on Rockets - I like the value here with Houston and see the Rockets covering easily on the road Wednesday against the Mavs. The Rockets have won 3 straight and are 5-2 ATS in their last 7. Injuries played a big part in Houston cooling off from their ridiculous pace to start the year that saw them open the season 25-4. Now that everyone is healthy for the Rockets, I think we see them get back to dominating the opposition. Dallas had been playing well for a stretch, but are just 3-6 SU in their last 9. I'm sure they will give a big effort here with this game being televised on ESPN, but so will the Rockets. I just don't see the Mavs being able to keep pace offensively. Not to mention this line is basically calling for them to have a shot to win this game outright and I just don't see that being the case. Take Houston! |
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01-24-18 | Louisville v. Miami-FL -3.5 | Top | 75-78 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
5* NCAAB 'ACC' GAME OF THE MONTH on Miami - I love the value we are getting here with the Hurricanes as a short home favorite against the Cardinals. Louisville is getting way too much respect coming off a 4-game winning streak, while Miami isn't getting near enough respect due to the fact that they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. They did however win their last game, going on the road and handing NC State a rare loss on their home floor. One of the key factors here is the home court advantage for the Hurricanes, who are 6-1 at home with the only loss coming against Duke in a game they should have won (led by double-digits). Louisville is 15-4 overall, but just 3-3 away from home and I believe this is their biggest road test since losing 61-90 at Kentucky. They also lost 69-74 at Clemson in ACC play. Cardinals are also just 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games after a win, while the Hurricanes are a dominant 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a contest where they made 55% or more of their field goal attempts. Take Miami! |
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01-24-18 | Bulls v. 76ers UNDER 219.5 | 101-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
4* NBA Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Bulls UNDER I think we are getting great value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA total between the Bulls and 76ers. Chicago's a team that normally likes to play at a pretty fast pace, but I think we see a much slower tempo here from the Bulls. Chicago is playing their 3rd straight on the road over a span of just 5 days and are coming off a grueling double-overtime loss to the Pelicans. The 76ers are also playing for the 3rd time in 5 days and were on the road last time out at Memphis. A game they blew a late lead in by giving up 31 in the 4th quarter. Head coach Brett Brown called out his star players and I think we get a big effort here from the 76ers. The offense also figures to still be limited with both McConnell and Redick out with injuries. UNDER is 34-17 in the Bulls last 51 after 3 straight games in which they scored 105 or more points and 10-1 in the 76ers last 11 home games against a team that's only won between 25% and 40% of their games. Take the UNDER! |
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01-24-18 | Georgia Tech +10.5 v. Florida State | 77-88 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Georgia Tech + I like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a double-digit road dog against the Seminoles on Wednesday. Last time out Georgia Tech pushed as a 14-point dog at UNC and the previous game they failed to cover as a 7.5-point home dog to Virginia (lost 48-64). I think those two results are creating the value here with the Yellow Jackets, as well as the fact that the Seminoles are off a 9-point win and cover as a 2-point dog at Va Tech. Prior to losing their last two, the Yellow Jackets had really been playing well. They had won 4 straight and covered 5 in a row. I just think they took a big step up in class against the Tar Heels and Cavaliers. FSU is a good team, but I think they are a bit overrated and that's been evident by their mere 3-4 record in ACC play. Seminoles likely win, but I see a much closer game than books are suggesting. Take Georgia Tech! |
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01-23-18 | Texas A&M v. LSU +3 | Top | 65-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on LSU + I love the value here with LSU as a home dog against the Aggies on Tuesday. Texas A&M comes in having won their last two, but those were home games against Missouri and Ole Miss. Nothing to get excited about. Prior to that they had lost 5 straight and are winless on the road in SEC play with two of the three losses coming by double digits. LSU has dropped 3 straight and that's playing into the value here. The Aggies did managed to cover in their most recent win over Missouri, but that's not a good thing for them in terms of covering tonight. Texas A&M is a mere 3-13 ATS over the last 2 seasons after a game where they covered the spread. They are also just 8-18 ATS in their last 26 SEC games and and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take LSU! |
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01-23-18 | Kansas v. Oklahoma -1.5 | 80-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB KU/Oklahoma ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma - My money is on the Sooners laying a short number at home against the Jayhawks on Tuesday. Oklahoma comes in having lost 2 straight, but both were on the road. The Sooners are a perfect 9-0 at home this season, including a 4-0 record in Big 12 play. Defense has been a problem for Kansas inside conference play. While the Jayhawks are allowing just 69.8 ppg on the season, they are giving up 76.9 ppg in the Big 12. Now they go up against one of the most explosive offenses in the country in Oklahoma, which averages 98.9 ppg at home behind freshman sensation Trae Young, who leads the nation at 30.5 ppg. KU is a mere 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 following a SU win. Take Oklahoma! |
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01-22-18 | Kansas State v. Baylor -4.5 | 90-83 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB K-State/Baylor VEGAS INSIDER on Baylor - I like the value here with the Bears as a short home favorite against the Wildcats on Monday. Baylor is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 games, but have covered 4 of their last 5, including a mere 3-point loss at Kansas in their last game as a 8-point dog. The previous game they won by 16 at home against Oklahoma St as a similar 4.5-point favorite to what we see here against K-State. This has the feeling of a must win game for the Bears and I expect an all-out effort here. I don't think K-State is going to be able to match that intensity. This has the makings of a letdown spot for the Wildcats, who are coming off two huge wins at home over Top 25 teams and have played 5 ranked teams in their last 6 games overall. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games and I expect them to cruise to a win here. Take Baylor! |
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01-22-18 | 76ers v. Grizzlies +3.5 | 101-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
3* NBA Situational ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies + I like the value here with Memphis as a home dog against the 76ers on Monday. The public is all over Philadelphia, who comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-1 in their last 8 games. However, I think it's going to be tough for the 76ers to get up here after a grueling stretch that had them play the Raptors at home, Celtics on the road and Bucks at home in a span of just 6 days last week. It won't be easy getting up on the road against the Grizzlies. Memphis doesn't get a ton of love and rightfully so with an overall record of 16-29, but this team has quietly been playing well and have been a covering machine. Grizzlies have covered 4 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They have won 4 straight at home and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Backing up a possible letdown here for the 76ers is the fact that Philadelphia is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Memphis! |
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01-22-18 | Iowa State v. Texas OVER 137 | 57-73 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Over/Under Total NO BRAINER on Iowa State OVER I like the value here with the OVER in Monday's NCAAB total that has ISU visiting Texas. I just think we are seeing an overreaction here to the Cyclones last game, which saw them combine for just 122 points in a blowout win over Texas Tech at home. Even with that low-scoring affair, the average combined score in ISU's 7 Big 12 games this season is 155. Texas comes in only giving up 66.5 ppg on the season, but are allowing 76.9 ppg in Big 12 play and the average combined score in the Longhorns 7 Big 12 games is 148.5. We are sitting here looking at a total at less than 140, which makes this a pretty easy play for me. Take the OVER! |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles OVER 38.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 29 m | Show |
5* NFL Playoffs TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Vikings OVER I love the value here with the total in Sunday's NFC Championship Game between the Vikings and Eagles. I know these are two teams are built around their defenses, but it's not asking a lot to hit 40 points with the talent these two have on the offensive side of the ball. Minnesota's offense is better than it gets credit for. The Vikings have score 23 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games. They put up 29 last week against a solid Saints defense and I expect them to be around that 23-27 mark in this one. The Eagles come in averaging 27.8 ppg, but haven't been quite as potent with Nick Foles under center. They put up just 15 on the Falcons last week, but did have some success moving the ball. They just had to settle for a couple field goals and had two costly turnovers. Minnesota's defense is very good, but it's not as dominant on the road. All we need is to average 10-points a quarter to clear this mark and I think we get that and some more. OVER is 15-4 in the Vikings last 19 road games off a home win where they failed to cover as a favorite and 7-0 in the Eagles last 7 games after posting a turnover margin of -1 or worse in two straight games. Take the OVER! |
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01-21-18 | Nets v. Pistons -6 | 101-100 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
4* NBA Situational ATS NO BRAINER on Pistons - I like the value here with Detroit at home against Brooklyn on Sunday. The Pistons come in having dropped 4 straight and their last two at home have seen them lose by 11 to the Hornets and 10 to the Wizards. Guys going in and out of the lineup played a big part of the struggles for Detroit during this stretch and that's why I'm confident backing them here with a near full roster. The other thing is how Detroit has historically bounced back from a bad loss, especially when that defeat came on their home floor. The Pistons are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 home games off a loss as a favorite and an even better 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off an upset loss as a favorite of 10 or more points. Take Detroit! |
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01-21-18 | Manhattan +5.5 v. St. Peter's | 68-57 | Win | 100 | 1 h 8 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Manhattan + I like the value here with the Jaspers catching points on the road against the Peacocks. These are two very similar teams and this line suggests that St. Peter's is the superior side. I don't think that's the case at all and wouldn't be the last bit surprised if the Jaspers won this game outright. The other big thing here is the Peacocks aren't playing great basketball right now. St. Peter's comes in having lost 3 straight. The most recent being a 84-88 outright loss at home to Rider as a 4-point favorite. Peacocks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Jaspers on the other hand are 4-1 ATS last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. Take Manhattan! |
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01-20-18 | Pepperdine +11.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 73-80 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
5* NCAAB Late Night GAME OF THE MONTH on Pepperdine + I love the value here with the Waves as a double-digit dog against the Dons on Saturday. We are simply seeing a big overreaction here by the books due to Pepperdine coming in with a 3-16 record and 0-7 mark in league play. San Francisco hasn't exactly been playing well, as they have lost 3 straight, including a 62-65 loss at home to Santa Clara as a 10-point favorite in their last game. The Dons are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a losing record. Adding to this is a great system in favor of the Waves. Road teams off 2 straight conference losses by 10 or more and revenging a same season loss are 89-49 (65%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Pepperdine! |
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01-20-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
5* NBA Western Conf GAME OF THE MONTH on Rockets + I like the value here with the Rockets here at home in Saturday's big showdown with the Warriors. James Harden returned to action in Houston's last game and the Rockets cruised to a 116-98 win over a Timberwolves team that had been playing very well. The Rockets might not be able to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, but I like their chances here at home in this 1-game set, as this one simply means more to Houston than it does Golden State. Warriors are overvalued just about every time they take the floor, but even more so when they go up against a good team and the numbers back it up. Golden State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Adding to all of this is a great system in favor of fading the Warriors. Teams off a road win as a favorite where they failed to cover the spread are just 16-40 (29%) ATS in the month of January over the last 5 seasons. Take Houston! |
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01-20-18 | Bucks v. 76ers -6.5 | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
4* NBA No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Sixers - I like the value here with Philadelphia at home against the Bucks on Saturday. The 76ers are rolling right now. They have won 6 of their last 7 and fresh off a 89-80 win at Boston. They caught a break with the Celtics not having Irving and will catch an even bigger break here, as the Bucks will be without Antetokoumpo and Brogdon. Milwaukee struggles as it is with the Greek Freak and I just don't see how they are going to be competitive on the road here without him. Not having him on the floor doesn't just hurt their ability to score, but it takes a lot away from their defense. 76ers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after covering 2 or more straight games. This is a team you want to keep riding when they are playing well. Take Philadelphia! |
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01-20-18 | Marist +16.5 v. Rider | 57-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Vegas ATS NO BRAINER on Marist + I like the value here with the Red Foxes as a big road dog against the Broncs. Maris is just 4-14 on the season, but 2 of those wins have come in league play. That poor record has led to them being undervalued by the books and they come in having covered 3 straight. The most recent being a mere 3-point loss at Siena as a 7.5-point dog. They also lost by just 1-point at Quinnipiac as a 7.5-point dog in their previous road game. Rider comes in playing well, but are just 12-25 ATS in their last 37 home games when they come in having won 4 of their last 5. The Red Foxes have been a great bet against good teams, going 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. The road team is also 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings overall. Take Marist! |
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01-20-18 | William & Mary +3 v. Elon | 80-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on William & Mary + I like the value here with the Tribe as a short road dog against the Phoenix. William & Mary come in off a couple of blowout losses at home against two of the top teams in the CAA in Northeastern and Towson. Prior to that they had started out 5-0 in conference play and I look for them to bounce back in a big way here against Elon. Tribe are 27-8-2 ATS in their last 37 off a SU loss and 19-7-2 ATS in their last 26 off a double-digit loss at home. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games after playing 3 or more straight games at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take William & Mary! |
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01-20-18 | Cal Poly -3.5 v. CS-Northridge | 54-72 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cal Poly - I like the value here with the Mustangs as a short road favorite against the Matadors. Cal Poly comes in off a couple of hard fought losses on the road against Hawaii and UC-Irvine and I think they are primed to bounce back with a big win here against Northridge. Cal Poly is scoring 73.7 ppg in conference play, while the Matadors are averaging a horrific 59 ppg on just 36.2% shooting. That makes it tough to win regardless if you are playing at home or on the road. Northridge is just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a losing road record and a mere 1-10 ATS in their last 11 as a home underdog and 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games played on Saturday. Take Cal Poly! |
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01-20-18 | Drexel +4.5 v. James Madison | 73-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Undervalued UNDERDOG on Drexel + I like the value here with the Dragons catching points on the road against the Dukes. Neither of these teams have been very good in league play, as both come in with a 1-6 record in conference games. I just think the books are giving James Madison too much respect here in what I think is a very evenly matched game, especially with the Dukes missing second leading scorer Joey McLean. Both teams also figure to be a bit fatigued playing on one day of rest and it's a spot that James Madison has struggled with, as they are just 2-13 ATS in their last 15 when playing on 1 or less day of rest. It's worth noting that last time out the Dragons lost by 22 at Towson, as they are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games off a road loss by 20 or more points. Take Drexel! |
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01-20-18 | Niagara +2.5 v. Fairfield | 85-104 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
4* NCAAB Early Bird HEAVY HITTER on Niagara + I like the value here with the Purple Eagles catching points against the Stags. Niagara shouldn't be a dog in this one. Fairfield is just 6-11 overall and a mere 1-5 in league play. The Purple Aces are 12-8 overall with a 5-2 record in conference games and are 7-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road this season. Niagara is also playing some of their best basketball right now. They just won at Quinnipiac, extending their winning streak to 5. The Stags are headed in the exact opposite direction, as they have lost 5 straight. The most recent being a 6-point loss at Marist as a 5-point favorite. They also lost the game before that at home to Manhattan as a 6.5-point favorite. Niagara is a big time threat offensively, averaging 83 ppg and that's worth noting as Fairfield is a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs teams who average more than 77 ppg. Purple Eagles are also 26-13 ATS in their last 39 road games vs bad teams who have won between 20% to 40% of their games. Take Niagara! |
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01-20-18 | North Dakota State +3.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 88-92 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
3* NCAAB Vegas LINE MISTAKE on North Dakota State + I like the value here with the Bison catching points on the road against the Mastodons. North Dakota State comes in off an upset loss at home to in-state rival North Dakota. I believe it's going to have the Bison 100% locked in for this showdown against Ft-Wayne. I don't think there's any question that North Dakota State is the better team. These two teams have 4 common opponents. The Bison are 3-1 in these games, while the Mastodons are just 2-2. NDSU averaged 80.3 ppg against these teams, while giving up only 67 (+13.3). Ft-Wayne only average 72 ppg and allowed 72.8 (-0.8). Mastodons are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 conference games and a mere 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 off a game where they failed to cover the spread. Bison are 5-2 ATS last 7 on the road and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take North Dakota State! |