Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-16-17 | Georgia State +37.5 v. Penn State | Top | 0-56 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
125 Georgia State at Penn State The Panthers haven’t played a game since taking on Tennessee State on August 31st. That gives them plenty of time to try to keep this Penn State team under control. Since joining the FBS the Panthers are 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more, 21-10 ATS catching double digits. Last year against a fellow Big 10 team the Panthers caught 34 1/2 at Wisconsin and only lost by 6. Penn State had last weeks contest against Pittsburgh circled, as the team felt losing to the Panthers last year cost them a chance to play in the final four. With that game having so much emotion in a rivalry contest along with the Big 10 season starting next week at Iowa, we can see the Nittany Lions going through the motions here. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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09-16-17 | Kentucky +7 v. South Carolina | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
111 Kentucky at South Carolina The Wildcats beat South Carolina each of the last three seasons, twice in the underdog role. When digging deep into the early season stats we feel Kentucky will take this one to the wire. South Carolina enters the game 2-0 on the season, but have been very fortunate. In analyzing first half stats. They have had two drives start in opponent territory, while making the opposition go the full distance on the field. The Gamecocks won the first half turnover battle in both games. South Carolina was outgained 7.0 to 5.6 against NC State and 6.3 to 4.6 against Missouri. In full game stats South Carolina has permitted 10 explosive plays while only producing 7 themselves. The Gamecocks have been very fortunate and that ends on Saturday. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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09-16-17 | Oregon v. Wyoming +14.5 | 49-13 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
186 Oregon at Wyoming The Ducks and Willie Taggart take to the road for the first time under his watch. When the Southpoint sports book in Las Vegas opened this game of the year line it was Oregon -1. While every sharp I know took advantage of that number, it’s now time to look at the homesteading Cowboys as the line has simply risen too far. Oregon looked really good in the first half against Nebraska last week but was shutout after halftime. The concern we have about the Ducks isn’t the scoring ability, but the lack of defense. Nebraska put up 35 last week to continue a recent poor trend. When looking at Oregon road games as of late the Ducks have permitted 34, 28, 45, 52, 51, 35, 36 and 55 points. That’s an average of 42 points permitted over the last eight road games. Now Oregon must travel to Laramie to take on a Wyoming team in altitude, with one of the top college quarterbacks in the nation. Wyoming was a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog under Craig Bowl last season. This is a team that scored 34, 52, 30, 35, 45 and 40 points in home regular season games last year. If there ever was a team with back door offensive potential it’s the Cowboys. Off a terrible showing against a very good defense in Iowa, we look for the Cowboys to ride the arm of Josh Allen to an easy pointspread victory here. PLAY WYOMING |
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09-16-17 | Purdue v. Missouri -7 | 35-3 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
156 Purdue at Missouri We love Jeff Brohm as a coach and he has the Boilermakers pointed in the right direction. But here the betting markets are putting the cart before the horse. When looking at first half stats, which are more telling that full game numbers, a clear picture can be drawn. Purdue outscored Louisville 14-10 and Ohio U 34-7. Impressive, until you give a deeper dive, especially in the Louisville game. In each game the Boilermakers had a plus 2 turnover advantage. Combined Purdue had 3 drives start in opponent territory, while only allowing a single short field for the opposition. In that first half against the Cardinals Purdue was outgained 6.7 to 5.1 yards per play. It also lost the full game explosive play numbers 7 to 2. We couldn’t understand the Ohio U love in the other contest as we had Purdue favored by 5 1/2. Ohio is just a slightly better than average MAC squad. The Missouri home loss to South Carolina last week was a game we can make money on, because the final score wasn’t representative of the way the game was played. Missouri beat South Carolina in explosive plays 6 to 4. In looking at first half numbers the Tigers lost the turnover battle and the Gamecocks had a drive start at the Missouri 25. In truth Missouri outgained the Cocks 6.3 to 4.6 ypp. We lined this contest a full touchdown higher than the betting markets. PLAY MISSOURI |
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09-16-17 | Wisconsin v. BYU +17 | 40-6 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
154 Wisconsin at BYU The Badgers are making a rare trip out west, the first in over three years for Wisconsin. It will also be in altitude where Wisconsin never plays. When looking at first half stats against Utah State and Florida Atlantic, the Badgers have not been impressive. Against the Aggies the game was tied at the half and Wisconsin was outgained 3.9 to 3.0 ypp. Against Florida Atlantic the Badgers led by 10 at the break outgaining the opposition by just 1.8 yards per play. Wisconsin simply wore down the opposition in the second half, not likely having that advantage in altitude against an older and stronger BYU defense. The Cougars have been bad offensively but a change is being made at quarterback. The defense for BYU has been solid, allowing 46 combined points thus far in two FBS contests. With the total the lowest on the board it’s a prime opportunity to buy low on the Cougars. PLAY BYU |
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09-16-17 | Baylor +15 v. Duke | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
141 Baylor at Duke Sometimes you just have to hold your nose and bet a game knowing that you are getting the best of the number. That’s the case here with a Baylor team who has disappointed the masses the first two weeks of the season. We like the hiring of Matt Rhule and we didn’t expect this program to turn the corner overnight, but this has turned into a must win game for the Bears. Starting the season 0-2 and with Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas on the horizon. A loss here and the season could be a complete washout in no time. Duke looked outstanding last week against Northwestern, but keep in mind the Wildcats have really underperformed in the early going. This is a Duke team that was rated virtually even with Baylor two weeks ago, and now are laying two touchdowns to the Bears. Duke hasn’t been a two touchdown favorite over a power five team the past two seasons. The Blue Devils also have hated rival North Carolina on deck. If Baylor plays up to its ability it wouldn’t surprise to see the Bears win this outright, but we feel much safer taking the inflated number. PLAY BAYLOR |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State -14.5 | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 56 m | Show | |
104 New Mexico at Boise State Much of what we do involves first half stats, when both teams are trying to win the game. As opposed to the later stages of contests when many times teams are just running the ball to kill the clock, or throwing the ball in order to make a big comeback. We have found that the first half stats are more indicative of how the teams play. Against two good football teams in Troy and Washington State the Broncos have outscored the opposition 27-10 at the half. In yards per play it was 5.7 to 3.3 against Troy and 5.2 to 4.9 against the Cougars. Those 20 total points allowed included two drives which started in Boise State territory. New Mexico on the other hand played an FCS team in which we don’t chart, as well as a home game last week against rival New Mexico State. The Lobos as a 7 1/2 point favorite lost that game 30-28. But a closer look at the first half numbers really should have Lobo fans concerned. New Mexico was outgained 7.9 to 4.0 and trailed at halftime 23-5. Home teams on Thursdays have a nice scheduling advantage as the Lobos have to travel on a short week. We also like the fact that Boise State blew that game last week in overtime. So while Washington State was celebrating the victory, Boise State can’t wait to get back on the field. The Broncos won this matchup last year 49-21, a similar result here wouldn’t surprise. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3 v. Broncos | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
481 LA Chargers at Denver The Chargers have been an afterthought in the minds of the public and the betting markets. After 5 and 4 win seasons the team was moved to a new city. To make matters worse the clubs home games are going to be played in a soccer field for the time being. If there is anyone who should be profitable on the road this season it will be these Chargers. This has been the role the Chargers have excelled in for years. 28-17-2 the past nine years in the road dog role, including a combined 9-5 ATS in the last two seasons. Denver has an excellent home field advantage when the team wins 9 or more games. In those years over the last decade the Broncos are 23-15-1 ATS. When winning 8 or less Denver is 12-26-2 ATS. This Bronco team is expected to be an 8 win team, so we can expect more of a poor home spread mark. The offense is putting the QB in more of a shotgun formation, which originally was designed for the former Memphis QB. Not for Trevor Siemian, who was expected to be the backup. But the injury to Lynch has put Siemian in a spot in which he has never performed well, in the shotgun. We take advantage of that opening night. PLAY LA CHARGERS |
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09-10-17 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 52 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
474 Seattle at Green Bay With the total expected to be a shootout we will side with the under in this battle of elite NFC squads. When looking at key positional matchups the defenses have a solid advantage in this contest. And with the current line we are able to grab that key number of 51. The week one NFL lines have been out for some time, so most have been pounded into place. This is one that still provides solid betting value. PLAY UNDER |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan +7.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
309 Western Michigan at Michigan State The Spartans were very good to us last week against Bowling Green. Running our three year MAC record to 12-2 with the cover. But this week we go against a Michigan State team that is overpriced in this matchup. Being a directional school in Michigan means the Broncos take special pride when playing instate competition. Thus they are 4-1 ATS the past three plus years when facing fellow Michiganders. Western Michigan is also in its best role of road underdog. Under PJ Fleck this team was 12-4 ATS in that role, and a perfect 1-0 under Tim Lester after the Broncos gave the Trojans of USC all it could handle last week. We talked about Michigan State last week being a team with something to prove off a terrible 3-9 season. They would not overlook Bowling Green and they certainly didn’t. This game is a different story. The next contest on the agenda is taking on rival Notre Dame, followed by Iowa and then instate rival Michigan. The Spartans are just 13-21 ATS as home favorites the past 5+ seasons. We look for the Broncos to take this one to the wire. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
203 Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee State The Commodores finished the regular season scoring 45 and 38 against Tennessee and Mississippi. While we are not buying in to the massive offensive improvement, we are willing to back a team with the much superior defense. The last two seasons Vandy allowed just 24 and 21 points per game playing an SEC schedule. It limited the Blue Raiders to 37 total points the past two years. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State averaged 39.7 and 34 points overall the last two seasons. The Blue Raiders return six starters to a defense that permitted 35.8 ppg a season ago. Getting the SEC defense against a team that’s never been stout defensively, in a low priced game is the way to go. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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09-02-17 | Michigan v. Florida +5.5 | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
202 Michigan and Florida in Arlington, TX The Wolverines bring back just five starters from a year ago, and while Wilton Speight returns behind center we’ve never been overwhelmed by his ability. The defense has been decimated by graduation and as good as this coaching staff is, it will take some time to get up to speed. We simply love Jim McElwain and the job he has done at Colorado State and at Florida. Now in his third season his recruits should be ready to shine. The team suspended eight players for this opener, including the best wideout on the squad. But in all honesty we want to back a team willing to put standards ahead of winning. The rest of the team buys in and a more cohesive effort is to be expected. The additional advantage is that the general public will go against the team with suspensions and give us line value. In what is expected to be a low scoring game we will gladly take the points with what we grade out as the better team. PLAY FLORIDA |
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09-02-17 | California +13 v. North Carolina | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
177 California at North Carolina Two teams with plenty of offseason changes meet up in this one. Cal has a new coach in Justin Wilcox who has made his name on the defensive side of the ball. The team also has a new QB as Davis Webb has graduated. But the team returns 14 starters and gets to take advantage of a Tar Heels team losing even more than they have. North Carolina is losing 7 of its top 8 skill position players from a year ago. That includes the first quarterback taken in the draft, Mitch Trubisky. The team that averaged 32.3 and 40.7 ppg a year ago will have a long way to go to get that type of production again. While the early start time would be a concern during the regular season, this being the first game gives the Bears plenty of time to get acclimated. Just too many points to give with a whole new offensive skill set. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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09-02-17 | Bowling Green v. Michigan State -17 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
154 Bowling Green at Michigan State Let’s start this analysis off with the Bowling Green Falcons. After a four win season for Mike Jinks, the program should be back on track now as he starts to play some of his young recruits. The offense will be better as the season goes along. But we want no part of the Falcons here against a Michigan State team coming off its worst season in quite a long time. The Spartans won an average of 10.83 games a season the prior six years before dropping to an unheard of 3-9 record a season ago. Mark Dantonio has a career 108-59 record, and he didn’t forget how to coach overnight. The Spartans start the year with two MAC foes in BG and Western Michigan, along with a bye before facing Notre Dame. He will use the first two games to regain the confidence of his troops after that disastrous season. A motivated bully in week one is what we want to back. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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09-01-17 | Washington v. Rutgers +27.5 | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
144 Washington at Rutgers The Huskies are a popular team that played in the final four a year ago. The offense brings back virtually everyone, while the defense took big hits to the secondary. Washington snuck up on the opposition a year ago, that’s not the case this year. Therefore the numbers on the Huskies are sure to be inflated entering this season, and this game itself has taken money on the dog since the opener. Rutgers has been downright terrible as of late but in his second season Chris Ash finally has some depth to work with. While the offense will never be considered a strength, the defense should be much better than a year ago. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Scarlet Knights double its wins from last year. Long trip from coast to coast for the Huskies and the team has nothing to prove until getting into conference action. This is a bigger game for the host and the line is about 5 points too high. PLAY RUTGERS |
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09-01-17 | Navy v. Florida Atlantic +10 | 42-19 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
146 Navy at Florida Atlantic The Midshipmen have won eight or more games 9 of the last 10 years. This is a program that gets the best out of its players just as you would expect. But the Navy offense is one that gets better as the year unfolds. Keep this in mind, in the first three games against FBS competition the last five seasons, Navy averaged just 23 points per game. Over the entire course of those years Navy averaged 37.9, 36.8, 31.8, 33.5 and 25.0 points per game. It’s a timing offense that’s just not ready to fly early on in the season. The Owls made a controversial hire in the offseason as Lane Kiffin comes in after a highly publicized stint at Alabama. The offense should be better and the defense can’t get any worse. But in reality the team does have a coach that will bring in quality recruits and put people in the stands. Something uncommon in these parts. Based on the way Navy takes time to gel this line is simply too high to trust the Midshipmen. The Owls are on the rise and we get them here in what is a key game for Kiffin and the Florida Atlantic program. PLAY FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
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08-31-17 | Florida International +17 v. Central Florida | 17-61 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
169 Florida International at Central Florida After leaving college football at the end of the 2010 season Butch Davis is returning to lead the Panthers who have 15 starters back. After having coached at Miami and North Carolina as well as the Browns in the NFL, this veteran should have his team well prepared out of the gate. Scott Frost is in his second year in Orlando and the Knights have high hopes for this season. But after taking his club from zero to six wins a year ago regression is in order. UCF was just 2-3 SU at home last year against FBS competition. These clubs met each of the last two years with the road team not only covering but winning outright. We bet this game at +21 when the Southpoint in Las Vegas posted world openers a couple months ago. Our number on this game is only 12 1/2 so plenty of value remains after the wise guys dropped this to the current line. PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL |
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08-26-17 | South Florida v. San Jose State +22 | 42-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 54 m | Show | |
296 South Florida at San Jose State Both teams have new head coaches this year and interestingly enough they both came from the same program at Texas. Charlie Strong outlived his welcome with the Longhorn faithful and receivers coach Andrew Sowder was hired at San Jose State. That in itself give the Spartans a familiarity edge here as Sowder knows exactly the type of plays the Bulls will try to run under Strong. Willie Taggart took the Bulls from 2 wins in 2013 to 11 last season and he was lured away in the offseason by Oregon. The Bulls played a quick pace last year and found success, but the defense in turn suffered from the offense getting in and off the field quickly. Strong will be doing the same thing with the Bulls here which means lots of plays and high scoring games. South Florida hasn’t traveled further than Texas the past four seasons. With both teams looking to increase the pace your power ratings need to be adjusted here. That said the current line is still radically inflated from what myself and many of my colleagues have this game set at. A defense cannot be trusted to hold leads after ranking 120th last year, when the personnel isn’t any better in Tampa. We will take the points with a San Jose State team that everyone is overlooking. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -5.5 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
312 Green Bay at Atlanta The Packers have been red hot riding the smoking gun of Aaron Rodgers, and he will have success against this middling Atlanta defense. That said, this Falcons offense is one of the best we have seen in the NFL for many years. Not only can Atlanta run the football successfully, Matt Ryan is having an MVP season as well. The Packers have been in a must win situation for weeks now, while the Falcons had the division won for a while. Atlanta is the fresher team having had a bye week and really didn’t have to extend itself the last couple weeks of the season. PLAY ATLANTA |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons OVER 60 | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
311 Green Bay at Atlanta Not impressed with either defense here, and with Atlanta having the fourth best first half offense in the history of the NFL, we expect the Packers to throw the ball a lot. Atlanta gets off to great starts and we expect the same here today at home. The Packers don’t have much of a running game and Rodgers has taken control of the offense with great success as of late. The line is high for a reason and the game is being played in a dome. Look for a shootout as these two easily surpass this high total. PLAY OVER |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | 18-16 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
305 Pittsburgh at Kansas City While the Pittsburgh defense has gotten better as the season has gone on, keep in mind the weak offensive teams the Steelers faced on its schedule. Just in division Cincinnati, Cleveland and Baltimore struggled putting points on the board. Kansas City doesn’t throw the ball long but the receivers are able to turn short passes into large gains. The Chiefs have been among the leaders in explosive plays out of the passing game. With the total dropping on this contest we feel it’s time to jump on the over as we see both teams having success. Pittsburgh in the running game and the Chiefs through the air. PLAY OVER |
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01-15-17 | Packers v. Cowboys -5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
308 Green Bay at Dallas The first time these two played all the talk was about the Cowboys running game against the Packers run defense. Dallas won that battle and we expect more of the same here. Dallas has multiple offensive weapons while the Packers will be playing shorthanded at receiver without Jordy Nelson. We trust the Dallas defense over the Packers, and the extra week of rest should be a big advantage for the host. PLAY DALLAS |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
152 Clemson & Alabama in Tampa We played Clemson in this game last year and walked away with the cash. But we’ve watched every Tigers game this year and this team isn’t as strong as a year ago. The defense remains solid but the offense has been very inconsistent. The line advantage that the Tigers had over Ohio State will not be repeated here as Clemson and Alabama have the two best combined offensive and defensive lines in college football. On the season Clemson is 1-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while Alabama is 4-1 ATS. That’s a sizable edge for the Tide in a game where turnovers will determine the winner. Going in to last week the consensus line on this game was anywhere from 9 to 11. Based on Clemson playing its best game of the season this line has dropped about three points. The line value is on the favorite and we will lay the points with the Tide. PLAY ALABAMA |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +8 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
280 USC & Penn State Both teams finished the regular season as two of the hottest teams in the nation. Both as we often see that hot streak no longer exists this far between games. It happens all the time in the NFL with a bye week, so you can imagine what happens in a January Bowl Game. USC played Stanford, Utah, Colorado and Washington this year. None of those teams in the PAC12 covered the number in its bowl game. We have these two clubs rated about as close as two bowl teams could be, with Southern Cal gaining a small home edge because of the location. In the key numbers we use we have the following: In season long explosive plays Penn State has the edge 3.0 per game to 1.6. In the last four regular season games Penn State is also ahead 17-5. When comparing the teams spread records when losing the turnover battle USC is 3-2 and Penn State is 2-2. When losing the sack battle Penn State is 0-1 ATS and USC comes in at 1-2. So as you can see these two clubs are almost identical in our power ratings. With the Nittany Lions knowing it can finish the season ranked #3 with the losses of Washington, Michigan and Ohio State. We will take the generous points with Penn State. PLAY PENN STATE |
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01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
320 Cleveland at Pittsburgh The Browns celebrated as if it won the Super Bowl last week when it upset the Chargers at home. That marked the first win of the season for Cleveland and got the huge monkey of its back. Because of that relieved pressure we can’t see this team looking forward to taking on the physical Steelers with vacation time on deck. Pittsburgh is resting many key starters but the winning philosophy will not change for the host. Pittsburgh is a winning organization from ownership on down, while the Browns are the complete opposite. This line moved 12 points from the lookahead because of the Steelers clinching playoff position. That’s simply too much of a move with the Pittsburgh backups being just as good as these Browns starters. Cheap line for the Steelers here who enter the playoffs with a double digit victory. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
265 Florida State & Michigan at Miami We had Florida State ranked second in the country in our preseason power ratings. We were asking too much from this team with a freshman starter. After being blown out by upstart Louisville the Seminoles were put on the back burner by many. But as the season transpired the Seminoles started to get noticed again in the betting markets, finishing the regular season cashing 4 of 5. Michigan has a solid defense but played one of the weakest offense opponent slates in the country. This will be the best offensive unit the Wolverines have faced all year. And we worry about this Michigan offense who put up big numbers against weak opposition. The best defenses it faced were Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. In those three games the Wolverines tallied 54 points and that included two overtimes against Ohio State. This one comes down to the wire and we will side with the better skill players of Florida State. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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12-30-16 | TCU -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
257 TCU & Georgia in Memphis Much prefer the Horned Frogs here who are 30-21-2 ATS when Gary Patterson has extra time to prepare. This is a team that took a great deal of money in the Game of the Year lines down at the Golden Nugget Sportsbook. It was the most bet on team by the wise guys with a maximum bet of $1,000. Unfortunately this team underperformed all season with a 3-8 ATS mark against FBS opposition. The other two teams with three or less covers were Baylor and Southern Miss, both spread covering teams in the bowl season. With time to reflect on this disappointing season we expect the Horned Frogs to come to play on Friday. Georgia can’t be too excited for this bowl draw after back to back ten win seasons. Kirby Smart has a quality defense in his first season in Athens, but the offense is lacking. There than Alabama the rest of the SEC was really down this year. We’ve already seen Mississippi State struggle with a middling MAC team, and Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and South Carolina lose outright. The line moved towards the Horned Frogs late, and we agree with the move. PLAY TCU |
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12-29-16 | South Florida v. South Carolina +10.5 | Top | 46-39 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
252 South Florida & South Carolina at Birmingham Willie Taggart is off to Oregon with his top assistants, Charlie Strong will not be involved in this game. Therefore you have a sizable favorite here with an inexperienced coaching staff. South Carolina is a sizable SEC underdog, something rarely seen. It also owns the far better defensive unit. We like the job Will Muschamp has done here and this bowl game is a nice reward for a team expected to finish in last place in its division. Take the generous points with the Gamecocks. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
240 Washington State & Minnesota This line has risen based on the suspension of 10 Golden Gophers, two of them starters. Our line with the full lineups would have been Washington State -4. Therefore we are getting six extra points for a team playing with purpose. We always like to play on teams with suspensions as it galvanizes the squad. We will take the generous points here with a quality defensive unit. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt +6 v. NC State | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
233 Vanderbilt & NC State The Vandy defense has been solid all year but the offense has really come on as of late. It all started in the loss to Missouri where turnovers and key penalties really hurt the volunteers. Because of an early deficit Vanderbilt had to open up the offense, and the results were terrific. State has played well when stepping up in class but has been disappointing otherwise. The money is coming in on the Wolf Pack but we prefer the SEC underdog. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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12-26-16 | Maryland v. Boston College +2.5 | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
232 Maryland & Boston College Much prefer the best unit on the field on Sunday which is the BC defense. While the offense isn’t anything to write home about the defense has been strong against middling competition. Maryland has been very inconsistent all season and in our ratings should not be favored here. In a matchup of two mediocre teams we will take the far superior stop unit. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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12-24-16 | Chargers -4 v. Browns | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 50 m | Show |
117 San Diego at Cleveland Once again the wise guys have shown up to back the Browns. How’s that worked out for them this season? I admit that I had backed Cleveland on occasion and I still have the betting tickets to prove it. But now that the line has dropped this week we can come in on the Chargers. We are well aware that its a poor spot for San Diego, traveling across the country to play an early game. But the Browns have not shown up against teams in bad spots all season. Nobody wants to be known as the team that lost to the Browns, so we feel the Chargers will be well prepared. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-23-16 | Ohio +4.5 v. Troy | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
225 Ohio U & Troy at Mobile We’ve had a nice bead on the Bobcats this year and feel Ohio U is the right side in this Dollar General Bowl. Playing a tougher schedule Ohio U is 1.3 explosive plays per game over Troy on the season. Over the past four games Ohio U is +12 in explosive plays over the Trojans. Both teams match up well along the lines and take care of the ball equally well. The Bobcats are 3-1 ATS the past 5 years in bowl games including a 31-29 loss as a 7 point underdog to a similar Appalachian State Sun Belt team a year ago. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
222 Eastern Michigan & Old Dominion at Nassau Not surprised by Old Dominion money coming in as of late as we made this line 5 points higher than the opener. Eastern Michigan won 7 total games the past four seasons, and have really improved this year under Chris Creighton. While web really like this team and have made quality money on them this season, Old Dominion has major edges. The Monarchs take care of the ball much better, only losing the turnover battle once all season. Old Dominion also only lost the sack battle once, all the way back on September 17th against NC State. We prefer the favorite here in what should be a double digit straight up victory. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State v. Idaho +15.5 | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
220 Colorado State & Idaho in Boise The problem with bowl season is similar to having a bye during the regular season. Teams that are red hot like Colorado State are thrown out of rhythm, which is why betting on streaking teams doesn’t work. Colorado State has run off seven straight covers to end the regular season, but a closer look at its straight up wins makes us question this high line. Victories over UTSA, Utah State, UNLV, Fresno State and New Mexico are not overly impressive. The win against San Diego State was in a sandwich game for the Aztecs who just played Wyoming and had the Cowboys rematch for the conference title on deck. While Colorado State is good, this line has simply gotten out of control. Idaho is playing its last game as an FBS school and this marks the first bowl game for the Vandals since 2009, a 43-42 win over Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl. Eleven years earlier Idaho also won it’s previous bowl game 42-35 over Southern Miss. This team wants nothing better than to add another bowl victory to its FBS history. Idaho has shown a great deal of heart this year going 2-2 ATS when losing the turnover battle. It’s also covered seven straight heading into this contest, but not as highly hyped as the Rams. This should be a battle. PLAY IDAHO |
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12-18-16 | Bucs +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
305 Tampa Bay at Dallas Can’t buck the red hot Bucs here catching a full touchdown. Five straight wins allowing a total of 64 total points., that includes likely playoff foes Kansas City and Seattle. Tampa Bay was won the turnover battle in 8 of 9 games and has held its own in the trenches. Dallas continues to play excellent defense but the offensive side of the ball has struggled as of late. Just 24 total points the last two weeks when facing improving defenses. In a low scoring contest the points are at a premium. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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12-18-16 | Jaguars v. Texans -4 | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
320 Jacksonville at Houston Money continues to flow in on the Jaguars who have covered just twice in the last eight games. In the last nine contests the Jags haven’t produced more than 22 points in any game. While the opposition has been quality the lack of offense really puts this team behind the eight ball. Jacksonville has only won the turnover battle twice all season and are a negative 17 in turnover differential on the season. Houston has won the last five meetings between these two, with four of those games decided by 6 points or more. In a low scoring matchup we prefer the Texans who are still in the drivers seat for the divisional crown. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
New Orleans Bowl 212 Southern Miss & UL Lafayette in New Orleans The Golden Eagles won 4 total games from 2012-2014, but bounced back with a solid 9-5 record last year. So the team entered the 2016 season with high hopes. After beating Kentucky on the road in the season opener things looked great for first year coach Jay Hopson. But the only FBS victories since then came against UTEP, Rice, Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Three very bad teams an a Bulldogs team that was looking past Southern Miss to the CUSA Championship the following week against Western Kentucky. QB Nick Mullens is reportedly healthy, which is a positive. But that’s the only thing going in the Golden Eagles favor here. The team has struggled along the lines the latter part of the year, and is a negative 15 turnovers on the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in the New Orleans Bowl in 4 of the last 5 seasons. ULL is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in those games. While this isn’t a true home game for Lafayette it’s a game the team shoots for every season. One major reason we like the Ragin’ Cajuns chances here are how these two teams perform when losing the turnover battle. When you are able to cover a game despite losing the turnover battle it tells us the true heart of a team. ULL was a perfect 4-0 ATS in that department this season, the best in the FBS, just ahead of Alabama at 4-1. Southern Miss on the other hand was 0-7 ATS when losing the turnover battle. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State +4 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Las Vegas Bowl 204 Houston & San Diego State in Las Vegas Houston will be without coach Tom Herman as he has moved on to Texas. The offensive coordinator has been named new head coach, so the team does know who it will be playing for next season. While the move is a positive for the players, we can’t help but see this bowl as a disappointment for the team. This was a club expecting to play in a much more prestigious bowl, and we expect the players to treat this as more of a vacation spot than a proving ground. Houston has been very inconsistent all season in turnovers and along the lines. The +10 sack margin against Louisville was unbelievable, but other than that game the Cougars were -6 on the season in sacks. In 4 of the last 5 games of the season this team averaged less than 4.7 yards per play. San Diego State is very familiar with this location playing in Vegas every other year. The game will take precedence over the festivities for the Aztecs. San Diego State rarely turns the ball over and is formidable along the lines. Donnel Pumphrey is going for the all-time rushing record so the offensive line will be extra motivated. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -6.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 9 m | Show |
New Mexico Bowl 202 UTSA at New Mexico Tough draw in the first bowl game for the Roadrunners. Not only does UTSA have a first year coach in Frank Wilson, but the team is playing on the New Mexico home field. UTSA has had terrible line play all season posting a -21 net sack number in FBS games. In fact, it had just one positive sack game on the season. New Mexico is a team that will run the ball down your throat and gets stronger as the game progresses. On the season the Lobos have a +14 sack margin, which has been even better as of late. In the last seven games New Mexico has dominated in the trenches with a +14 sack margin. Twice this season the Lobos reached double digits in yards per play, 10.0 vs ULM and 13.5 against Wyoming. UTSA is in for a very physical contest. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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12-11-16 | Chargers +1 v. Panthers | 16-28 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
107 San Diego at Carolina Chargers are +13 explosive plays on the season and +5 over the last month compared to Carolina. The Chargers have played with heart all season with a respectable 2-4 spread mark when losing the turnover battle, Carolina is 1-6 ATS. Carolina went to the Super Bowl last year winning 15 of 16 during the regular season. Now out of the playoffs off an embarrassing 40-7 loss on National Television against Seattle last Sunday. The Panthers laid down in that game and we expect more of the same here. Carolina has played four straight games decided by a field goal before last week. The dam has finally broke. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns +5.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 16 m | Show | |
112 Cincinnati at Cleveland The Bengals have won 12, 10, 11 and 10 games the last four seasons. Right now Cincinnati sits at 4-7-1 on the season. Coming off its best all-around game of the year and with hated rival Pittsburgh on deck, do you really think this team is worried about the winless Browns? Cincinnati has beaten Cleveland by margins of 14, 34 and 21 points the past two seasons. Cleveland is 0-12 and coming off its bye week. You will never find a team more motivated than a winless team off a bye. RGIII is expected to start for the Browns on Sunday, but regardless of the quarterback the team needs to do a better job of keeping the QB upright. The good news is that Cincinnati isn’t overly strong in the trenches and Cleveland has a chance to keep this competitive. The Browns have two covers on the year against Miami and Tennessee, two teams very similar to the Bengals. We expect Cleveland to take this one to the wire! PLAY CLEVELAND |
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12-11-16 | Vikings v. Jaguars +3 | 25-16 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 10 m | Show | |
120 Minnesota at Jacksonville The Vikings have lost four straight road games by margins of 3, 6, 10 and 11 points. The team has scored over 20 points just once in the last two months. Jacksonville owns a season long explosive play advantage over Minnesota by 10 and by 4 over the last month. This game features the biggest turnover discrepancy in the entire league. Minnesota is +13 on the year and the Jags are -18. That’s a whopping 31 turnover differential between these two clubs. While interceptions are not a random occurrence, fumbles are. So we should see some regression in those turnover stats. The Jags have played some similar offensive squads this season and held them in check defensively. Denver 20, Houston 24, Kansas City 19, Chicago 16 and Baltimore 19. We look for a low scoring affair with the Jags surprising the Vikings. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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12-04-16 | Panthers +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 7-40 | Loss | -101 | 46 h 44 m | Show |
375 Carolina at Seattle So much of what we have read and heard about this game is playoff revenge for Seattle. The Seahawks are getting healthier and now the players can’t wait to avenge the loss to the Panthers. But keep in mind Carolina was played Seattle better than anyone the past few seasons. Not only did Carolina win at home 31-24 in the playoffs, it won 27-23 in Seattle in the regular season. The teams played each of the three previous seasons with final margins of 4, 5 and 4 points. So just because Seattle has revenge does not mean this team can cover a spread in this range. On the season these two are equal in explosive plays breaking exactly even on the season. Over the last month Carolina has a +3 explosive play advantage. Since its bye week on October 9th Seattle has played seven games. In those games Seattle has scored 145 points and surrendered 133. The Seahawks were + 6 in turnovers in those games and favored in all but two. This team just isn’t as good as previous editions and Seattle continues to be an overrated squad. We went against Seattle last week vs the Bucs, we do the same here. PLAY CAROLINA |
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12-04-16 | Redskins +2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 42 m | Show |
371 Washington at Arizona It’s not often that you get the clearly better team catching points. But that’s the case here as the betting public has been very slow to react to how poorly this Arizona team has played this year. On the season when looking at explosive plays Washington is +10 while Arizona is +2. Over the last month these teams are exactly equal. Washington is playing its second of three straight road games, and this is a divisional sandwich. The Redskins will also be without key receiver Reed on Sunday. Those are two big negatives, but not enough to keep us off the Skins here. In the last ten games Washington has lost just three games in regulation, twice to first place Dallas by margins of 4 and 5 points, and at first place Detroit by 3. This team is in every game it plays, and is a solid 2-2 ATS when losing the turnover battle. Simply put this team gives it all every week. The same cannot be said about the Cardinals who had much higher expectations coming into the season. Arizona is 0-5 ATS when losing the turnover battle. It’s also 0-4 on the year as an underdog or a favorite of -3 or less. Those stats are a clear indication of a lack of heart. In a game where the likely outcome is the team that wins gets the cover, who do you trust? PLAY WASHINGTON |
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12-04-16 | Bills +3 v. Raiders | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 41 h 24 m | Show | |
In the afternoon starts we have isolated a game in which we feel we have a sizable advantage that hasn't been counted on in the betting line. In fact, we feel we have two teams going in opposite directions. Join us on Sunday as we extend our 23-11 and 93-57 overall winning runs. |
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12-04-16 | Texans +6.5 v. Packers | 13-21 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 14 m | Show | |
355 Houston at Green Bay We haven’t been a fan of the Texans at all this season, but you can’t help but like Houston here. Sure the offense has struggled all season but this defense continues to play outstanding football. Only once all season has this club permitted more than 27 points and it that game the yards per played allowed was just 5.1. Houston has been very unlucky in turnovers this year with a -9 margin right now. Osweiller has been a terrible signing, just like we said before the season started. But this defense is why we like the Texans here. Green Bay just played three straight games on the road and 4 of its last 5 contests. That can take a lot out of a team, especially one playing on a short week. The Packers have one less game to prepare coming off the MNF win over Philadelphia. The lookahead like coming into that game was Green Bay by 4, now because of the win the Packers are laying a much higher number. We weren’t overly impressed by the Packers Monday night, more disappointed in the Eagles who have now lost 4 of 5. Plenty of value here on the Texans as this line is simply too inflated. PLAY HOUSTON |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
333 Penn State & Wisconsin in Indianapolis Much prefer the red hot Nittany Lions here who have produced an outstanding 3.0 explosive plays per game average, as opposed to Wisconsin’s +1.2 per game advantage. Over the last month Penn State has outperformed the Badgers by 14 explosive plays. Penn State struggled in the trenches through the opening month of the season with a negative two sack margin. Since that time Penn State has a + 15 margin in sacks. Better line play is one of the reasons why this team has put up scoring numbers of 45, 39, 45, 41 and 62 points down the stretch. Wisconsin has relied on forcing turnovers the second half of the season, with a +11 margin the past four games. In those four games the yards per play numbers for the Badgers were not overly impressive. Despite playing the likes of Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern, the ypp numbers were 0.7, 0.3, 1.4 and minus 0.3. Penn State is a strong 2-2 ATS on the season when losing the turnover battle. Wisconsin better rely on more than turnovers to win this Big10 Championship. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-03-16 | Georgia State +6 v. Idaho | 12-37 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 40 m | Show | |
321 Georgia State at Idaho The line is dropping as we write this and we agree with the movement. On the course of the season Georgia State is +0.7 explosive plays per game while Idaho is -1.9 per contest. Over the past four games the Panthers have a +7 explosive play edge. Georgia State has an extra week to prepare after a home win over Georgia Southern. In fact, this team hasn’t had to leave Atlanta since October 29th at South Alabama. The Panthers are fresh which isn’t the case very often this time of year. Idaho is off a 38-31 victory over South Alabama. The Vandals are riding a rare three game winning streak. After winning 4, 1, 1, 1 and 2 games the past five seasons, Paul Petrine seems to have Idaho on an uptick. The problem is that the Vandals are 3-7 in yards per play analysis this year, and this team isn’t used to expectations. This is only the 10th game since 2011 the Vandals have been favored against an FBS opponent. We will take the points with the Panthers as this one goes down to the wire. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
317 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma These two teams are much closer in talent than this current line is showing. On the season the Sooners have a +1.9 explosive play advantage, while the Cowboys sit at +1.5. Over the last four games Oklahoma State has a +6 margin over Oklahoma. Keep in mind that while the Cowboys have two official losses on the season, the defeat against Central Michigan was later ruled an officials mistake. The only other defeat was at Baylor in the first road game of the season . The road team has won outright the last three meetings in this series, and the past two meetings in Norman produced three point overtime finals. Oklahoma is up 7 net turnovers over the last five games which has helped the team go undefeated over that span. But even with that turnover advantage the Sooners are just 3-2 ATS. On the season the Sooners are 2-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while the Cowboys sit at 2-1 on the year. As mentioned earlier this line is inflated and we will gladly take the visitor here with35 point home field revenge from a year ago. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Temple +3 v. Navy | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show |
325 Temple at Navy Tough to go against the red hot Owls here in an underdog role. On the season Temple is +2.5 explosive plays per game while Navy sits at 0.2. Over the last month Temple is +19 explosive plays compared the Navy. Temple has cashed 10 straight games heading into this contest, but the Midshipmen are off offensive performances of 75 and 66 points. Temple has its bye on November 12th, while Navy hasn’t had a break since September 24th. The last four Owl opponents produced 3.7, 3.1, 3.3 and 3.8 yards per play. Navy the past three weeks have 10.5, 8.1 and 7.0 yards per play from the offense. So it’s a red hot offense against a red hot defense, something has to give. While Navy has won 6 of 7 as of late, the yards per play stats show a different story. Since October 1st Navy has lost the ypp battle in 6 of 8 games with the only wins coming against SMU and Memphis. We would much rather trust this Temple team who has won the ypp battle 8 of its last 9 games. Defense wins over offense on Saturday. And the huge Army/Navy matchup is on deck for the Midshipmen. PLAY TEMPLE |
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12-02-16 | Ohio +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
303 Ohio U & Western Michigan in Detroit The Bobcats biggest loss on the season was by a margin of 9 points at Tennessee. This is a team that has been competitive in every game played and we don’t expect anything to be different come Friday. In the last ten games against FBS opposition the Bobcats held every opponent to 28 points or less. Even in games in which Ohio U lost the turnover margin this defense has permitted 27, 10, 27 and 3 points. Ohio U has great line play with a + 21 sack margin on the season. Last weeks game against Toledo was considered the must have game for Western Michigan. While the Broncos won by 20 it lost the yards per play battle 8.4 to 6.1. It was a +3 turnover margin which led to the WM victory. Western has beaten Ohio by margins of 35 and 21 points the past two seasons, so we can see the Broncos having a bit of a letdown here. Between beating Toledo last week and a possible New Years Day bowl, this game against Ohio U is a flat spot for the Broncos. Keep in mind that ESPN came to Kalamazoo the week before against Buffalo and we can see how Western Michigan would overlook the opposition here. The advantages of turnover margin and sack advantage will not be extreme against this Ohio U squad. Look for a much closer game here than projected. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-27-16 | Seahawks v. Bucs +6 | Top | 5-14 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
268 Seattle at Tampa Bay Really tough scheduling spot here for the Seahawks. Off Philadelphia, New England and Buffalo on Monday Night Football. With Carolina on Sunday Night Football, Green Bay, Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and Arizona on Christmas Eve ahead. This is by far the least important game for Seattle until the final week of the season at San Francisco. The Seahawks are really beat up defensively this week and we can easily see the team using bench players on Sunday. Tampa Bay on the other hand are as healthy as the team has been all season. Tampa Bay is on a 4-2 straight up run with one of the losses coming in overtime to Oakland. Tampa struggled early but this is is underrated right now. Plenty of value on the home dog. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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11-26-16 | Tennessee -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Michigan State v. Penn State -12 | Top | 12-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
160 Michigan State at Penn State Not buying into the Spartans improvement as this team has lost outright to Maryland and Illinois in the past five games. Michigan State is -11 in sacks on the season while Penn State is up 12 sacks in just the past seven games. We expect the Nittany Lions to dominate the line play on both sides of the ball. And Penn State has extra motivation off losses by margins of 39 and 27 points the last two years. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -8 | Top | 55-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
214 Mississippi State at Mississippi This line has really surprised us. We have a bigger disparity between our line and the current line on this game than any other this weekend. On the season Ole Miss has a 1.9 explosive play advantage between these two, and over the last month its a +23 advantage for the Rebels. Ole Miss has won 3 of the last 4 with the lone loss coming in overtime in 2013. The Bulldogs over the past seven games have given up an average of 39.7 points per game. Mississippi has played the toughest schedule in the country this year. Games against Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, Memphis, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. You can understand how this team has underperformed on the scoreboard. But after an embarrassing loss last week at Vanderbilt you can be sure Hugh Freeze will have his team fired up for this one. Now 13-8 ATS here off a straight up loss in his tenure at Ole Miss, Freeze and company win this by double digits. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-26-16 | Kentucky +26 v. Louisville | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
175 Kentucky at Louisville Huge one way rivalry here for the Wildcats who are really playing well as of late. Covering 6 of 7 heading into this contest with the one pointspread defeat coming by 1/2 a point to Georgia. The Cardinals have won five straight in this series but we don’t expect the same type of emotion from Louisville. This team now not only is out of the final four discussion, but the conference championship is now an afterthought after getting blown out at Houston. Over the past seven games Louisville is -19 in sacks. Not the type of number we want when backing a favorite of this magnitude. Don’t laugh but we expect this one to come down to the wire. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona +3 | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show | |
142 Arizona State at Arizona Wrong team favored here in our eyes as the Sun Devils have taken a major tumble. The line play which was so good earlier in the season has really fallen off. The last two weeks Arizona State lost the sack battle by a combined 16 sacks! That’s almost unheard of. Granted Utah and Arizona are far better defensively than the Wildcats, but that’s even more of a concern as a road favorite. Over the last months the Wildcats own a +4 explosive play advantage over the Sun Devils, and the season totals are much the same. It’s not often you will find a road favorite that has lost five straight games. In fact, Arizona State has dropped eight straight in the yards per play category. Arizona has dropped 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are having a poor season. But that can all turn around by beating Arizona State here and keeping them from becoming bowl eligible. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-25-16 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 54-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
139 Texas Tech at Baylor The Red Raiders enter this game of an absolutely embarrassing loss at Iowa State. That broke a four game winning streak in the series, and marked the lowest offensive output in any game since 2011. All the quotes out of Lubbock suggest the team is excited to put that game behind them, and beat the hell out of the downtrodden Bears who crushed them last year 63-35. Baylor is simply put a dumpster fire right now with all the off-field issues taking over this program. Baylor has dropped four straight games and the offense is nowhere near as potent as in prior seasons. Over the last month Texas Tech has a +4 explode play advantage over the Bears and we actually have Texas Tech rated as the favorite here. Can’t understand the line move for a team that has not won the penalty advantage in any game, and is -6 in sacks the last month. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-25-16 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 35-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
118 Toledo at Western Michigan Now that we’ve had some line movement towards the dog we will step in and lay the points with the Broncos. Toledo has been impressive on the road this year but other than the trip to BYU the opponents have been less than stellar. The coaching edge also favors the host here as Jason Candle is in his first year while PJ Fleck will be highly sought after following this season. This is also the ninth straight game for the visitor while Western had a bye just two weeks ago. In looking at explosive plays Western Michigan has been dominant. Up 2.7 per game as opposed to Toledo’s 0.4. Over the last month the Broncos have a +12 advantage over the Rockets. Western Michigan hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year and have won the yards per play battle in 10 straight games. The Broncos are the clear class of this league and it will show on the field on Friday. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-25-16 | TCU v. Texas -3 | Top | 31-9 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
128 TCU at Texas The Horned Frogs were highly thought of in the betting marketplace before the season. But I, along with many others were simply wrong about TCU. The defense has been pretty good but this offense has only surpassed last years average points of 42.1 just twice all season. While Gary Patterson has been magical off a bye posting a 24-12-1 ATS mark in his career. In two games after byes this season TCU lost by margins of 24 and 25 points. Losing ATS by a combined 49 1/2 points. This will be an extremely emotional game for the host. Charlie Strong is coaching his last game in Austin after losing outright at Kansas last week. While his won/loss record here has been a disappointment, he is beloved by his players. There is no doubt in my mind that the Longhorn players will leave everything on the field in this game. These type of contests don’t come up very often. But in retrospect the club with the added emotion has great success. PLAY TEXAS |
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11-24-16 | Vikings v. Lions -2.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
108 Minnesota at Detroit The Vikings are 6-4 ATS on the season which is good, but this team has yet to lose a turnover battle in any game. With that type of turnover luck you would assume a much better spread mark than what the Vikings have achieved. The Minnesota offense has been the problem, especially in the first half of games. The Vikings have lost the first half yards per play battle in five straight games by margins of 0.7, 0.4, 1.5, 5.2 and 0.4. The offensive line problems have also come into play lately with a -11 margin in those five games since the bye week. Detroit counters with a 5-4-1 spread record with a +2 turnover advantage on the season. The Lions defense is peaking allowing 19, 16, 20 and 17 points the past four games. Detroit owns a +8 explosive play advantage in this matchup as well. The home teams in these early week games have an advantage, and Detroit by the numbers is the slightly better team. Therefore laying less than a touchdown here to a team that needs turnovers to compete is the way to go. PLAY DETROIT |
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11-22-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) -7 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
104 Ball State at Miami Ohio Last game of the season for the Cardinals who are not eligible to go bowling. The team is -1.8 explosive plays a game as the offense has struggled to throw the ball downfield. Defensively Ball State has allowed every FBS opponent 21 points or more this season. Turnovers have been a problem with a -10 margin on the season. Nothing that we have read points to any special meaning for the Cardinals here. Miami Ohio lost the first six games of the season but are now undefeated with Gus Ragland behind center. Last year and this year combined Ragland has a 15 to 0 touchdown to interception ratio. The defense has been solid all year but now the offense is playing with confidence. The last four games the Redhawks have produced 35, 37, 28 and 40 points. Miami can win the MAC East with a victory here and a loss by Ohio U tonight against a banged up Akron team. Regardless of what happens in Athens, this Miami team is on the rise. Lay the cheap number with the Redhawks. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-21-16 | Texans +6 v. Raiders | 20-27 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
475 Houston & Oakland in Mexico City While Oakland is coming off a bye we’re not sure thats a positive for the Raiders. The team is riding a three game winning streak and feeling good about itself. The local fans are patting the team on the back and the playoffs are in range for the first time in years. Upon closer inspection we find that the Raiders are 1-8 on the season in yards per play. The team has been very fortunate in turnovers, which is a major reason for its success. This is also the largest spread of the season in Raiders games, as every other contest Oakland was either favored by 4 or less or an underdog. Houston had a bye just two weeks ago before beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville, so the rest factor is nonexistent. The Texans have already played the likes of New England, Minnesota and Denver away from home, so its battle tested. While Oakland has been fortunate with turnovers the Texas have not, at -5 on the season. The Texans are 3-4-2 on the year when breaking down yards per play. With the 14 turnover advantage for the Raiders here we expect that number to normalize. Houston does have a +6 explosive play advantage over Oakland which helps if the Texans fall behind. We feel this line is 2 1/2 to 3 points too high, and the location would hinder the team coming off a bye and feeling fat and sassy. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-20-16 | Titans +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -104 | 46 h 58 m | Show |
451 Tennessee at Indianapolis The Colts have beaten the Titans ten straight times heading into this contest including a 34-26 win in Tennessee back in October. But we expect that dominance to come to an end on Sunday. Indy should come out of the bye fat and happy after pounding the Packers on the road. But this team has only won twice all season in yards per play as the 4-5 record is a bit misleading. The major problem for the Colts is poor line play. When looking at team sacks Indy is -16 on the season, including -11 the past six games. If you can’t control the lines you better have the ability to create explosive plays. But that’s another sore spot for the Colts as Indy is -16 in explosive plays on the season. Tennessee on the other hand is +15 on the year, a whopping 31 explosive play advantage over Indy. While Tennessee is 5-5 on the year, it is 6-3-1 in yards per play. So while the Colts are not as good as its record the Titans are actually better. Getting the points with the better team here is just too good to pass up as we expect Tennessee to win going away. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-20-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Giants | Top | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 46 h 51 m | Show |
457 Chicago at New York Giants In a battle of two mistake prone quarterbacks we will gladly take the inflated number with the Bears. Chicago has a -5 deficit in turnovers on the season but the Giants at -8 are even worse. The Bears are 4-4-1 in yards per play, it’s been the turnovers which have killed this team all year. Now facing another turnover machine in Eli Manning the Bears have a real shot at the outright win here. New York is 5-3-1 in yards per play but are at a -10 disadvantage in explosive plays vs Chicago. Playing on a short week after a 21-20 victory over Cincinnati, we can see the Giants coming into this contest overconfident. After facing Los Angeles in London and beating divisional rival Philadelphia, followed by the MNF contest, it’s easy to see NY struggling for motivation here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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11-19-16 | Air Force v. San Jose State +10.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
414 Air Force at San Jose State Very tough scheduling situation for the Falcons here who are playing its third road game in the last four weeks. With a Friday showdown with Boise State on deck. Air Force has underperformed the last couple months having lost ATS in 5 of 6 contests. The lone spread victory was against Army in winning the Commander in Chief Trophy. Air Force beat San Jose State by 21 last year so there is little motivation here. San Jose State has performed better over the last month in explosive plays, despite facing the tougher of the two schedules. Over the last three games the Spartans played Boise State and San Diego State, the two top teams in the Mountain West Conference. San Jose also is coming off a needed bye after falling to the Boise State team 45-31 in a game it won the yards per play stat. San Jose State really struggled out of the gate but this team is starting to find itself, and best of all its doing so under the publics eye. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +2.5 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
342 Oklahoma at West Virginia As well as the Sooners are playing winning seven straight games heading into this week, the list of teams it has beaten all have major flaws. The best two teams on the conference schedule are West Virginia and Oklahoma State, which is the same two teams it ends the season against. A telling sign when handicapping football is how teams do when losing the turnover battle. Oklahoma is 2-4 when that happens, which is about what you would expect. West Virginia on the other hand is 3-1 when losing the turnover battle. The only team better is the consensus best team in the nation, Alabama who is a perfect 4-0. Backing these type of teams gives you a full game of intensity, something the Sooners have lacked all season. The Mountaineers are on an 11-1 straight up run at home, yet have been installed as the underdog here. While Oklahoma is up 2.4 explosive plays per game to West Virginia and its 2.0, the Mountaineers have been better over the last month. We think the wrong team is favored here. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-19-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Charlotte +4.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
344 Middle Tennessee State at Charlotte Huge drop-off for the Blue Raiders at quarterback with Brent Stockstill on the sidelines. Since John Urzua has taken over the yards per attempt have dropped from 7.7 to 6.0 and he’s already thrown more interceptions in 81 attempts to Stockstill 363. The yards per game has dropped nearly 150 per game. Over the last month the explosive plays have been almost exactly the same as that of the 49ers. Charlotte has been an improving team despite the loss last week against Rice. It was the first time Charlotte had been installed as a favorite and it couldn’t handle the pressure. With this being the final home game for the 49ers we feel the team has turned the corner and is capable of pulling off another upset. Over the last five games this team has led at the half, and in the game it trailed the 49ers won 27-24. Middle Tennessee State had scored 42, 51 and 43 points before the QB change, 17 and 25 since. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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11-19-16 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +3 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
404 Georgia Southern at Georgia State Wrong team favored in this one as Georgia State is on the upswing and its going unnoticed. The Panthers have dropped four straight on the scoreboard but when you look closer this team has been just a play or two from victories. Last week it lost to ULM despite having an 8.3 to 5.4 yards per play advantage. In fact, despite a 1-8 overall record the Panthers have held a ypp advantage in four of the last five games. Over the last month they are right there with this opponent in explosive plays. Georgia Southern enters this one having lost six of its last 7 contests. The only victory came by 3 at New Mexico State in a game it lost the yards per play stat. In looking back at how these teams did this season in the betting markets we see that Southern is at 2-7 while State is 5-4. That tells us that the Eagles simply do not deserve to be favored here. After back to back nine win seasons the betting public still considers this team as a powerhouse, it’s obviously no longer true. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma State +4.5 v. TCU | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
407 Oklahoma State at TCU The Cowboys have won 3 of the 4 meetings since the Horned Frogs entered the Big12 Conference. Oklahoma State has won six straight games entering this showdown Knocking off the likes of West Virginia and Texas Tech, two teams the Horned Frogs have lost to in the last three weeks. When looking at explosive plays over the last month and the full season Oklahoma State is superior. When losing the turnover battle the Cowboys are an excellent 2-1 ATS while the Frogs are 0-2 ATS, a telling stat that we like to use when judging team character. TCU is getting a lot of value out of two things. One is the record of Gary Patterson off a bye, which is now 24-13-1. But that wasn’t the expected positive a few weeks ago off a bye before playing West Virginia, a 34-10 loss. The other supposed advantage was a 62-22 win over Baylor before the bye. But as we have seen this Bears team is a complete disaster right now with all the legal battles and players jumping ship. We actually have the Cowboys graded out as a 3 point favorite here, and the 7 point differential in our eyes is a gift. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 | 34-7 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
316 Memphis at Cincinnati Just can’t trust this Memphis defense as a sizable road favorite here. Three of the last four games the Tigers permitted 49, 59 and 42 points. Memphis is very weak on the lines with a -9 sack margin on the season. In fact, only twice all year have the Tigers won the sack battle. Cincinnati has been a big underachiever this year but this is the spot to back the Bearcats. This team has double revenge against Memphis and the Tigers have a more important game on deck against Houston to end the season. Memphis has lost to the Cougars the past three seasons. We only made this line 4, so plenty of value on the home dog here in its home finale. Cincinnati is 29-8 straight up in Nippert Stadium the past six seasons. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-17-16 | Arkansas State +8 v. Troy | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
313 Arkansas State at Troy Since the first bye of the season the Red Wolves have been on a run, winning five straight games and cashing each ticket. They catch Troy off that huge win over Appalachian State , who is sure to have some type of a letdown here. Now that Troy entered the poll at 25 after that win, we can see a team that’s not used to that type of success being a bit full of themselves here. On the season and covering the past month Arkansas State has a slight edge in explosive plays, which makes them a dangerous underdog tonight. We made this line a good four points shorter and the sharp money early in the week agreed. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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11-17-16 | Saints +3.5 v. Panthers | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
309 New Orleans at Carolina Major concerns here for a Panthers team who is off a devastating loss to the Chiefs. After blowing a 17-0 lead its hard to imagine that there is much left in the tank for this team who went 15-1 last season and played in the Super Bowl. The Panthers have been turnover prone and Cam Newton has really struggled under pressure all season. The team lately has really struggled with penalties having 18 more than the opposition the past four games. That stat is a sign the concentration level has faded for this club with higher expectations. The Saints found its own way to lose a game in the final seconds last week against the Broncos. But the main reason was a -2 turnover differential. The Saints had five sacks more than the Broncos which doesn’t fare well for the Panthers squad having troubles protecting the quarterback. While the defense is always a concern the Saints offense has been extremely potent this season. Even in the Carolina 15-1 season from a year ago the Saints were very competitive losing by only 3 and 5 points. We look for New Orleans to get over that hump here. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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11-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
307 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan With news of the quarterback change a Northern Illinois the line has dropped three points during the week. That’s way too much of an adjustment in our eyes as the change is at most a single point. Keep in mind that the Huskies lost its true starter early in the season and these two signal callers were rated equal at that point. Another reason for the Eastern Michigan love is that the Eagles are now bowl eligible while the Huskies won’t be bowling for the first time in nine years. We actually find that to be a detriment to Eastern Michigan who have had extra time to celebrate. With all the boosters and fans giving them praise all week we can see a team that’s not used to success coming out flat tonight. Northern on the other hand have beaten the Eagles 14 of 15 games, including the last four by a combined margin of 120 points, 30 points per contest. Despite the late loss last week to Toledo this team has outscored the opposition 113-58 the past three games. Rod Carey will not let this team get down on itself and the talent level isn’t a huge drop-off from last year. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-15-16 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 55 | 7-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
302 Kent State at Bowling Green While the Mid-American Conference is thought of as a high scoring league we often find value on the under when these teams play in the national spotlight. Face it, the general sports bettor wants scoring and lots of it, which is why this MACtion games have been so successful for ESPN. Last week these two combined for 66 and 58 points so the first reaction would be for another high scoring MAC contest. But we only made this line 47.1 which gives us a full touchdown advantage on the under in this contest. Kent State is a very good defensive team in this conference, and the Falcons have gotten better on that side of the ball as the season has unfolded. Look for a lower scoring contest here. PLAY UNDER |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys +3 v. Steelers | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
271 Dallas at Pittsburgh This is a classic case of perception winning out over reality. Just lay out the season long statistics of these two teams and take away the team names, then tell me who should be favored here. One team has won 7 straight games, winning 6 of those in yards per play. That club has only lost the turnover battle once all year and is +6 in sacks on the season. That team has produced a league high +21 explosive play margin. Team two sits at 4-4 on the year and enters on a three game losing streak. That team is 2-4-1 in yards per play this season and is -2 in turnover margin. The team is also a balanced 0 in explosive plays, allowing the same amount as it obtained itself. By now you recognize that the team with the far better production is the road underdog Dallas Cowboys. The Steelers simply are not playing well enough to trust here against what could be the NFC Super Bowl representative. Losses to Miami and Baltimore as of late cannot be excused. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-13-16 | Vikings v. Redskins -1 | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
262 Minnesota at Washington The Vikings are not a team that is built to come back from deficits. The last three weeks Minnesota has scored 3 points by the half in each game. That was against Philadelphia, Chicago and Detroit. The offense produced a season high of 5.3 yards per play earlier this year against the Giants, which tells you how much this team struggles. If it wasn’t for a +12 turnover margin we would be talking about this team as one of the dregs of the league. In explosive plays Washington owns a +15 advantage over these Vikings. The offense has produced 16 points or more in every game, along with a season low of 5.0 yards per play. That would tie the second best game the Vikings have had offensively. Washington is the better all-around team and the line play for the Redskins is far superior overall to Minnesota, who are -11 sacks the past three games. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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11-12-16 | Illinois +26.5 v. Wisconsin | 3-48 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 21 m | Show | |
163 Illinois at Wisconsin The Fighting Illini have been at its best away from home this season. Despite a 1-2 road mark this team had a 6.1 to 5.9 yards per play advantage at Nebraska and crushed Rutgers 24-7. Coming off a confidence building win over Michigan State we like the Illini to keep this one close. This is definitely a soft spot in the Wisconsin schedule. The last six games the Badgers have played Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. Two of those games had to be decided in overtime. After winning three straight games by margins of 14, 6 and 8 points, we can really see this Badger team going through the motions here. Especially when you consider the Badgers have beaten Illinois five straight seasons. From a mathematical standpoint catching upwards of 27 points in a game totaled at 39 is an easy take. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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11-12-16 | Appalachian State +1 v. Troy | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 22 m | Show |
159 Appalachian State at Troy The Mountaineers have won both meetings with the Trojans by margins of 3 and 39 points the last two years. The 44-41 triple overtime game from a year ago was with the Mountaineers as a 24 point favorite. That game was sandwiched between two Thursday games with contenders Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. You can bet coach Satterfield will remind his team of that situation from a year ago. With only ULM and New Mexico State remaining on the schedule Appalachian State can focus fully on Troy here. Troy has put together a really good season, but this team hasn’t played a good team since the September 10th meeting at Clemson. The Trojans have been a 9 point or larger favorite in each of the last five games. App State has the much more explosive team despite playing a slightly tougher schedule. This team knows how to win on the road and we expect a solid victory over the Trojans. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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11-12-16 | SMU +7 v. East Carolina | 55-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 14 m | Show | |
133 SMU at East Carolina Chad Morris really laid into his team after that 51-7 blowout loss at home vs Memphis last week, and the players got the message. After winning just 3 games combined the past two seasons, the players were feeling high and mighty after back to back wins over Tulane and Houston. That reality lesson should make this Mustang a fired up squad come Saturday. SMU has performed well on the road with outright wins at Tulane and North Texas, along with taking Tulsa to overtime. East Carolina beat NC State was back on September 10th but have lost 6 of 7 since. The offense has struggled in the red zone and the defense has been shredded on a regular basis. Line play has been a major factor with the Pirates sitting at a -20 on the season in sacks. SMU on the other hand is +6 on the season. That line play gives us a huge edge here as we expect the Mustangs to avenge back to back losses to the Pirates. PLAY SMU |
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11-12-16 | Baylor v. Oklahoma UNDER 79 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
200 Baylor at Oklahoma This Baylor offense is not even close to previous versions, scoring just 22 last week against a questionable TCU stop unit. The only times it reached 40 points was against SMU, Iowa State and Kansas. Only once in those three games did the Bears surpass 5.7 yards per play. Oklahoma has held 6 of 9 opponents to less than 5.3 yards per play. This defense has really tightened up since Texas Tech put up 59 points against them. With a very high total in an early start game we look for this contest to be lower scoring than projected. PLAY UNDER |
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11-12-16 | Kentucky +14 v. Tennessee | Top | 36-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 42 m | Show |
165 Kentucky at Tennessee Not buying into the line movement here as Kentucky has been every bit as good as Tennessee the last month. The Wildcats have a sizable explosive play advantage on the season of 1.4 per game over the Volunteers. In matching up similar opponents and using 3.5 as home field advantage we see Kentucky fares very closely to Tennessee. The Wildcats were -34.5 against Florida while Tennessee was +6.5. That was the clear outlier when looking at these games. Against South Carolina it was +3.5 for the Wildcats and +0.5 for Tennessee. Against Alabama it was -24.5 for KY and -42.5 for TN. Versus Georgia it was -6.5 for the Wildcats and +6.5 for the Volunteers. With Tennessee expected to be the SEC East Champions coming into the season, we can fade this team down the stretch. Off three straight losses there is no way Tennessee deserves this much credit in the betting marketplace. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-11-16 | Boston College v. Florida State OVER 47.5 | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
117 Boston College at Florida State The better team usually dictates the pace and it’s clear who is considered the superior team here. While Boston College was excellent defensively the last two seasons the same cannot be said this year, especially when playing solid offensive teams. The Eagles permitted 49 to Virginia Tech, 56 to Clemson and 52 to Louisville. Tough to play under this number when facing another team who has had defensive problems all season. Florida State has held just one opponent under 19 points this year and that was Wake Forest in a 17-6 victory. This team has permitted 34, 63, 35, 37, 19, 37 and 20 points in every other game. We all know the Seminoles can put up points in a hurry, and we expect this to be a higher scoring game. In looking at explosive plays the Eagles produce 8.0 per contest while the Seminoles sit at 12.9 per game. That average of 10.45 is a full 2 explosive plays higher than any other game lined in the 40’s this week. That gives us a tremendous advantage against this current line. PLAY OVER |
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11-10-16 | UL-Lafayette +8 v. Georgia Southern | 33-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 43 m | Show | |
113 UL Lafayette at Georgia Southern While the Ragin’ Cajuns haven’t overwhelmed this season the defense has been impressive. The last six FBS opponents have produced 23, 3, 24, 37 in double overtime, 41 in four overtimes and 23 points. On the road UL Lafayette lost by two in four overtimes at Tulane, lost by six in two overtimes at New Mexico State and beat Texas State by 24. This is just the fourth game in six weeks for the Ragin’ Cajuns who have had a nice rest with two bye weeks. Georgia Southern on the other hand is playing for the sixth straight week after facing a physical Mississippi team a week ago. At home against FBS competition the Eagles struggled against ULM in a 23-21 win and lost to Appalachian State by 24 points. In yards per play this club has been outgunned in seven straight contests. Not the type of team we want laying close to double digits. Give us the Ragin’ Cajuns on Thursday to take this one to the wire. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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11-09-16 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois +7 | 31-24 | Push | 0 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
106 Toledo and Northern Illinois at Chicago The numbers point to Toledo being the favorite here but take a look at the discrepancy between the schedules of these two teams. By far Toledo’s toughest opponent was a 55-53 loss at BYU. Other than that game the next toughest opponent for the Rockets was likely Ohio U, a 31-26 home loss. Northern Illinois on the other hand lost at Wyoming in overtime, were blown out at South Florida, lost at home to San Diego State and lost by 15 at undefeated Western Michigan. Three of those four games were played in the first three contests of the season, right after star QB Drew Hare was lost for the season. This is a totally different Huskies team that the one who was finding its way early on. Northern Illinois has won six straight against the Rockets, including outright underdog wins as a 7 and 8 1/2 point dog. While this is technically a neutral game the Huskies will have the crowd advantage. It also has an extra day to prepare after playing last Tuesday. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-08-16 | Eastern Michigan +1 v. Ball State | Top | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
101 Eastern Michigan at Ball State The Eagles have dropped five straight in this series, but keep in mind this team posted a 13-47 overall record during that time. This Chris Creighton squad is far superior to any of those teams. In fact, a win here and the Eagles will become bowl eligible. After back to back losses to Western Michigan and an improving Miami Ohio, a victory here is paramount before heading into the bye week. Ball State has dropped 4 of 5 overall with the lone victory coming at Buffalo in a non-covering affair. The running game for the Cardinals is quality but this Eastern Michigan run defense is much tougher than in past years. We can see the Eagles putting a lot of pressure on the Ball State signal caller, making the offense one dimensional. Eastern has the much more explosive team averaging +1.1 explosive plays per game while Ball State sits at a -1.6. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-06-16 | Jets v. Dolphins -3.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 89 h 57 m | Show | |
460 NY Jets at Miami Fourth road game in five weeks for the Jets who have scored 17 points or less in 4 of 8 games this season. In first half play NY is 2-6 in yards per play which means most of any offense success has been with the team behind late. The last six games the Jets have trailed by the half. Miami has improved with the football as of late producing 6.8 and 7.0 yards per play the past two games. That was against the Pittsburgh and Buffalo defenses. Coming off a bye we like rookie coaches to put in new plays to stump the opposition. That’s the case here as Miami has extra time to prepare. We look for the Dolphins to take care of business here as this team has a huge scheduling advantage. The Dolphins haven’t left home since way back on September 29th at Cincinnati. Much easier than 4 of 5 weeks traveling for the Jets. PLAY MIAMI |
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11-05-16 | Nebraska +17 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-62 | Loss | -104 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
415 Nebraska at Ohio State Only one team all season has scored more than 22 points in regulation against the Huskers. That was Oregon way back in week three who tallied 32. The last five games Nebraska has permitted 17, 14, 22, 16 and 13 points in regulation. Tough not to like a sizable underdog with a defense like that. Ohio State is really struggling offensively. Without JT Barrett being 100% it takes away the ability for the QB to run from the pocket. The last four games Ohio State has produced 5.9, 5.0, 5.6 and 5.4 yards per play. These two clubs faced two good conference opponents this year, Northwestern and Wisconsin. In regulation Ohio State outscored those two by 4 total points, Nebraska outscored the same two teams in regulation by 11 points. So why are the Buckeyes such a prohibitive favorite? Public perception. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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11-05-16 | East Carolina +8.5 v. Tulsa | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 18 m | Show | |
353 East Carolina at Tulsa The Pirates have defeated the Golden Hurricane six straight meetings, yet the early money has been all over the host. Last week East Carolina finally had success in the red zone which has been a problem in the early going. This club was moving the ball well between the 20’s but finally found the end zone with regularity against a good defensive team in Connecticut. Tulsa under Philip Montgomery averaged 37.2 ppg a year ago, and 59 and 50 the past two games this season. So there is little problems offensively. The problem is a defense that has permitted 27 points or more in the past six games. That includes 41 to Fresno State, 40 to SMU and 27 to a limited Tulane squad. On the season Tulsa has a -0.6 explosive plays per game average. This despite playing a five point easier schedule than the Pirates, who are exactly even in explosive plays this season. Too many points to lay with this weak defense. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-05-16 | Maryland +31 v. Michigan | 3-59 | Loss | -109 | 74 h 56 m | Show | |
347 Maryland at Michigan No need to rush out for this one as its very likely the line will continue to rise with the Wolverines. Maryland has been a different team this year with Perry Hills behind center. He was injured in the first half against Penn State and the drop-off was immediate. Now that he’s back at QB Maryland has a chance to make a game of it. The Terrapins put up 28 against Michigan State and 36 last week against Indiana. Michigan is the superior team but this line is inflated. Just last week the Wolverines struggled to put away the Spartans, giving 24 1/2 points. We have Michigan State 3 points better than Maryland, so the correct line should be 27 1/2 at the most. If you discount the games Hills didn’t play the Terrapins would likely be a 24 point underdog. That gives us plenty of line value on the underdog. With Maryland playing with shutout revenge for a 28-0 loss a year ago, we back the road underdog. PLAY MARYLAND |
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11-05-16 | Charlotte +20 v. Southern Miss | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show |
357 Charlotte at Southern Miss Charlotte was a team getting a lot of press in the offseason with 16 returning starters. After facing Louisville, Eastern Michigan and Temple that hype dissipated. But looking back we see that all three of those teams are much improved, which gives us value on the 49ers now. The last three games Charlotte has outscored the opposition 81 to 74 despite playing two of those games on the road. The 49ers also have a slightly better explosive plays per game average than does the Golden Eagles, despite playing a little tougher schedule. Charlotte is off a bye after winning at Marshall by 3, while Southern Miss just beat the Thundering Herd at home by 10. There is no way the Golden Eagles deserve to be favorites of this magnitude. The Golden Eagles own just one FBS victory by more than this spread, and that was over UTEP, in a game it only had a 0.9 yards per play advantage. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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11-05-16 | Fresno State +15.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 0-37 | Loss | -106 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
371 Fresno State at Colorado State Don’t look now but the Bulldogs have become major money makers after the firing of head coach Tim DeRuyter. Four straight covers by a combined total of 16 1/2 points. After blowing a huge lead and losing in overtime to Tulsa, followed by a 25 point loss at UNLV, this team was left for dead. Not anymore as this club is playing with new enthusiasm. Colorado State has three FBS wins on the season, against UTSA, Utah State and UNLV. In two of those three games the Rams lost the yards per play category. In all three of those games Colorado State won the turnover battle. This is the first time all season this club has been a double digit favorite. The last time in that role was against these very same Bulldogs last year, and the Rams only won that game 34-31. We look for more of the same here. PLAY FRESNO STATE |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +12 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 58 h 17 m | Show |
315 UCLA at Colorado The Bruins have beaten the Buffaloes all five times since Colorado joined the PAC12. In every meeting UCLS has been a double digit favorite. Just last year Colorado was getting 23 points in Los Angeles. Now the Buffalos have been installed as a double digit favorite Thursday at home. While there is a drop-off at quarterback without Rosen, this line is saying its an eight point line adjustment. With last week off for the Bruins, the team can make the needed adjustments at quarterback. Just three weeks ago the Buffaloes gave Arizona State 11 1/2 points here. We have UCLA a full 10 points better with a healthy Rosen. Once again the line here has been overblown. Too many points to not back the Bruins here off its worst defensive effort of the year. PLAY UCLA |
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11-01-16 | Bowling Green +17 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
301 Bowling Green at Northern Illinois What a difference a year makes with these two schools. The last three seasons these programs played for the MAC Championship. Now neither will be making the big game. Mike Jinks took over for Dino Babers this season and the club was overwhelmed from the start, much like what happened to Northern Illinois this season. But both clubs have settled down now that conference action is underway. Just three weeks ago Bowling Green traveled to Ohio U and were installed as a 12 point underdog, in a 30-24 Bobcats win. Now the line is 5 points higher against a Huskies team that we have power rated as equal to Ohio U. That gives us plenty of value with the Falcons on Tuesday. Bowling Green still turns the ball over way too often, but the offense is starting to click. Bowling Green has produced 24 points or more in its last four games, against some of the better defenses in the MAC no less. Last time out Northern Illinois crushed Buffalo 44-7. But the offensively challenged Bulls lost the turnover battle by 4 in the first half in that game. The Bulls never had a chance to compete. Northern is the better team but this line is outrageous. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6 | 41-25 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
260 New England at Buffalo If you follow public betting patterns it’s clear that the Patriots will be a major play for most people on Sunday. Currently 92% of the money and 85% of the bets are on the Patriots. Yet the line has barely moved. That means the books are confident that Buffalo is a team it wants to back here, and we always like to be on the side of the bookmakers. In fact the sharpest books are sitting with the best line for Patriot backers, while you can get 6 and 6 1/2 at the so called square books in Vegas. It’s tough going against the Pats especially in a revenge situation, but this line is simply too high. It’s basically stating that on a neutral field New England is 9 points better than the Bills. Buffalo has outscored the opposition the past five games 149-81. This team is also 9-2 in the home dog role. We expect this one to come down to the last possession. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-29-16 | Tulsa v. Memphis -6.5 | Top | 59-30 | Loss | -106 | 56 h 32 m | Show |
162 Tulsa at Memphis The Golden Hurricane has lost to Memphis by 24 and 20 points the past two seasons. The only FBS victories this season for Tulsa have come against San Jose State, Fresno State, SMU and Tulane. The middle two games coming in overtime. Memphis has suffered just two losses on the year, at Mississippi and at Navy. Two teams much better than Tulsa. The Tigers have a +1.5 explosive plays per game more than the Golden Hurricane while playing almost identical strength of schedules. Look for another double digit victory for Memphis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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10-29-16 | Boise State -13.5 v. Wyoming | 28-30 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 6 m | Show | |
187 Boise State at Wyoming The last six years Boise has beaten the Cowboys by margins of 20, 49, 41, 31, 22 and 45 points. The Broncos have two extra days to prepare after outlasting BYU last Thursday. Boise has played a 2 point tougher schedule and still has a 4.7 explosive plays per game edge over Wyoming. The Cowboys are starting to get a lot of press as of late, but the wins over Northern Illinois, Colorado State, Air Force and Nevada all have one thing in common. Every one of those clubs are having a down year. We see no reason why the Broncos cannot continue the dominance in this series. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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10-29-16 | Arizona State v. Oregon -8 | Top | 35-54 | Win | 100 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
202 Arizona State at Oregon The Sun Devils have dropped 3 of 4 as of late with the offense averaging just 22.8 points per game. The quarterback position has been hampered with injuries and the starting center is out for this game. In three road games this season Arizona State is 0-3 ATS with spread losses of 12 1/2, 12 and 17 1/2 points. Oregon looked good coming out of the bye giving California all it could handle in a double overtime loss. On the season the Ducks have played a 5 point tougher schedule and still owns a 2.4 explosive play per game average over the Sun Devils. With the Ducks being winless on the season ATS there is tons of value on this Oregon squad. PLAY OREGON |
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10-29-16 | Northwestern +27 v. Ohio State | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show | |
169 Northwestern at Ohio State The Wildcats are 21-9 ATS in the role of road underdogs, including three straight outright victories over Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State. The only losses on the season have come against Western Michigan and Nebraska, two undefeated teams by a combined margin of 12 points. Many will look to back the Buckeyes and Urban Meyer off a loss. But this Ohio State offense just can’t be trusted in this price range. The last three games the Buckeyes have averaged 5.0, 5.6 and 5.4 yards per play. That’s far from an elite offense. Ohio State and Meyer are an extremely good team but this isn’t the elite squad the talking heads would have you believe. Ohio State is on a 4-7 run as home favorites, and this is a very lofty spread. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |