Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-13-14 | USC -16.5 v. Boston College | 31-37 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
193 USC at Boston College Now that 16 1/2s are showing its time to step in with the far superior team against a very limited Boston College offense. Many will talk about the cross country travel and the fact that the Trojans are off a lucky win over Stanford. While that is true the line adjustment has been exaggerated. USC has the better players in virtually every position on the field in this matchup. The Eagles are a power running team with a signal caller who doesn’t possess a major college arm. That makes this team one dimensional against what many consider the strongest defense in the country. That makes a lot of long third down conversations which lead to turnovers. We will go out on a limb here and say the USC defense will equal the BC offense in scoring.PLAY USC |
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09-13-14 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -16.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -106 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
124 Eastern Michigan at Old Dominion |
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09-13-14 | Arkansas +1 v. Texas Tech | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
153 Arkansas at Texas Tech The Razorbacks have a huge offensive line that has had its way the first two weeks of the season. This team can run the ball on anyone and it goes up against a very poor defensive team on Saturday. Texas Tech cannot stop the run and the offense looks to be down from previous editions. In watching the Red Raiders play the first two weeks it’s easy to see the offense is having a tough time getting on the same page. Penalties and poor decisions abound and Texas Tech will likely be playing from behind a good portion of this contest. We expect late money to come in on the Hogs here as it wouldn’t surprise if Arkansas goes off as a three point favorite.PLAY ARKANSAS |
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09-13-14 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN +20 v. Georgia Tech | 38-42 | Win | 100 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
133 Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech The Eagles of Georgia Southern have been impressive thus far. Giving NC State a major scare in the opener and blowing the doors off a bad Savannah State team a week ago. Now the upstart football program gets to play one of the two big boys in the state of Georgia as it takes on the Yellow Jackets.Georgia Tech played a similar styled Wofford team in the opener and the game looked like a team scrimmage. Both teams knew exactly what the other was going to run and the game never had a flow which kept the underdog in the contest throughout. We see much of the same here as the Eagles are very familiar with the Paul Johnson system as he was the head coach there for six years and installed the same system while posting a 62-10 record at Georgia Southern. It also doesn’t hurt that the Yellow Jackets have four times revenge on deck when it travels to Blacksburg next week to take on Virginia Tech.PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-11-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Baltimore Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 21 m | Show |
102 Pittsburgh at Baltimore Nice setup here for the Ravens who are already 0-1 in the division trailing both rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. While it’s hard to imagine a must win situation in the second week, this is about as close as it gets for the Ravens. Whenever any of the three AFC North contenders play it’s important to not lay over three if possible, as many times these games come down to a field goal. In fact, the last five games between these two have been decided by exactly three points. With the short week of preperation the home teams have a major edge, especially if it played the prior week at home. That’s the situation we have here with Baltimore off a home loss and the Steelers off a tough home victory. The Ravens are fully focused off a bad performance while the Steelers are happy to escape the Browns with a last second victory. Now with less time to prepare because of travel we can see the Steelers coming up on the short end of the scoreboard here.PLAY BALTIMORE |
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09-07-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
474 Cincinnati at Baltimore |
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09-06-14 | Memphis v. UCLA -23 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
382 Memphis at UCLA |
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09-06-14 | San Diego State v. North Carolina -15.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
376 San Diego State at North Carolina |
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09-06-14 | Louisiana Tech +14 v. UL-Lafayette | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
357 Louisiana Tech at UL Lafayette |
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09-06-14 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +20 | 41-3 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
347 Mississippi at Vanderbilt Classic first game overreaction here in regards to the Commodores. That coupled with preseason hype for the Rebels gives us a nice overlay price here with the dog. Keep in mind Mississippi used a 75 yard run in the final 1:07 last year to pull out the game in Vandy as a 3 point road favorite. So now we find Mississippi in the same situation but favored by roughly 17 more points. The Commodores are off an embarrassing performance including turning the ball over seven times. You know this team will enter this contest fully focused while we may not be able to say the same for the favorite, off a nationally televised win over Boise State which was much closer than the final score indicated. The highly touted QB for the Rebels was inconsistent as always but got hot in the fourth quarter. It’s clear that Ole Miss has the talent but until it can show a killer mentality the Rebels shouldn’t be trusted in this point spread range. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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09-06-14 | Western Kentucky v. Illinois -5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
328 Western Kentucky at Illinois |
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09-05-14 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College +4.5 | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 10 m | Show | |
304 Pittsburgh at Boston College |
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09-04-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 46 | 16-36 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
461 Green Bay at Seattle |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia UNDER 57.5 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 382 h 35 m | Show | |
182 Clemson at Georgia Not only do the Tigers have to replace thousand yard rusher McDowell, star QB Boyd and extremely talented receivers Watkins and Bryant, they also must replace All-Time scorer Calanzaro at kicker. The defense has 7 returning starters from a team that was excellent at penetration of the line. Georgia also enters the season without amazing signal caller Murray while 7 defensive starters return. After the stop unit regressed by close to 10 points per game a year ago we expect Georgia to be dominant at times on that side of the ball. Last year these two combined for 73 points and the casual fan will look to play this game over. But history shows starting the year with two new signal callers points to low scoring games. Throw in the fact that the defenses are extremely talented and we look for a very conservative game plan from the coaches.PLAY UNDER |
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08-30-14 | UCLA v. Virginia +21.5 | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 260 h 21 m | Show | |
160 UCLA at Virginia |
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08-28-14 | Temple +16 v. Vanderbilt | 37-7 | Win | 100 | 417 h 23 m | Show | |
141 Temple at Vanderbilt Vandy is going through changes this year as James Franklin took his services to Penn State. He had great success here winning nine games each of the last two seasons, but the Commodores are about to see regression. Vandy lost a ton of talent in the offseason including the leading tackler, starting QB and top two outstanding receivers. Add in the loss of an outstanding kicker and a new defensive scheme and we expect Vanderbilt to be slow out of the gate. Things are looking up for a Temple program that got better as the season went on last year. Coming off a year in which the Owls made only three field goals and intercepted just three passes we can look for a huge jump. They do have depth issues along the front line but the new defensive scheme for Vandy shouldn't exploit those concerns. This is a team that is fatally deep at QB with transfer Walker and veteran Reilly at the helm. This team is bigger and faster than a year ago and will surprise this season. PLAY TEMPLE |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 131 h 8 m | Show |
143 Rutgers at Washington State The Scarlet Knights put up 26.5 ppg a season ago and bring back 9 starters including improving quarterback Gary Nova. Rutgers has a quality offensive line which will give him time to find open receivers against a questionable Cougar stop unit.Washington State put up 31 ppg a year ago while allowing 32.5. The Cougars return 8 starters to an offense that brings back the outstanding Connor Halliday behind center. Washington State is deep and talented at the receiver spots and they have impact freshmen on the offensive side of the ball. With Rutgers have major problems in the defensive secondary the Cougars should be in for a big day offensively.PLAY OVER |
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08-28-14 | Wake Forest v. UL-Monroe +3.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 437 h 43 m | Show | |
136 Wake Forest at UL Monroe |
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02-02-14 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 43-8 | Win | 100 | 78 h 17 m | Show |
101 Seattle & Denver in New Jersey
Keeping this analysis concise as the real money to be made in this game is in the props. Defense wins Super Bowls and we have the best defense in the league at an underdog price. Seattle played the much tougher schedule by beating San Francisco twice, New Orleans twice and Carolina. This is a team that has gone nine straight games without allowing more than 20 points to any opponent. Only once all season has an opponent surpassed 24 points against the Seahawks. Denver has had a terrific season and this offense has been outstanding but this team is overrated coming into the big game. The public likes offense and personalities and the Broncos have two of the best. But keep in mind that the only teams Denver played that made the playoffs that they didn |
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01-19-14 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 38.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 0 m | Show | |
303 San Francisco at Seattle
The first two times these clubs met the scoring was very low at 32 and 36 points. But those games were played in the regular season when teams with a lead tend to sit on that lead by running the football and taking time off the clock. We don |
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01-12-14 | San Diego Chargers +8.5 v. Denver Broncos | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
117 San Diego at Denver
Against Top 10 power rated teams this year San Diego has gone 2-1 straight up winning against Indianapolis while splitting against these Broncos. Denver on the other hand is just 1-3 straight up splitting against San Diego and losing to both Indianapolis and New England. San Diego has lost just one road game by more than today |
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01-11-14 | Indianapolis Colts +7 v. New England Patriots | 22-43 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 33 m | Show | |
113 Indianapolis at New England
The Colts are 5-2 against teams that made the playoffs, the Patriots just 2-2. We |
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01-05-14 | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 v. Green Bay Packers | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
107 San Francisco at Green Bay
Here we have two teams on the complete opposites when being compared by strength of schedule. The 49ers had one of the strongest slates in the league while Green Bay faced one of the easiest. The Packers toughest game of the year was the opener against these 49ers. After that they played just two other teams that made the playoffs, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined margin of 24 points. Despite the easy slate of games the Packers could only out gain the opposition 6.0 to 5.9 yards per play. We are well aware of the Aaron Rodgers injury situation but those numbers are hard to ignore, yet I haven |
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01-04-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 46 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
101 Kansas City at Indianapolis
These two teams played just a few weeks ago and the Colts won 23-7 in Kansas City. But Kansas City didn |
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01-03-14 | Clemson v. Ohio State -3 | 40-35 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
264 Clemson & Ohio State in Miami
Haven |
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01-01-14 | UNLV v. North Texas -6.5 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
250 UNLV & North Texas in Dallas
The Rebels haven |
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12-31-13 | Virginia Tech v. UCLA -7 | 12-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
242 Virginia Tech & UCLA in El Paso
It |
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | 19-42 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
239 Boston College & Arizona in Shreveport
Boston College had a four game winning streak snapped in the final minute last time out against Syracuse. That not only hurt Eagles fans but our pockets as well. But we come right back with BC here as we just don |
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12-30-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
233 Mississippi & Georgia Tech in Nashville
Mississippi was one of those teams that stayed under the national radar because of playing in the always tough SEC. With a 7-5 record and losses to Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Missouri and Mississippi State. Other than the Bulldogs each of the other defeats came against highly ranked opposition. This is a defense that has held six straight opponents to 24 points or less. Ole Miss has been bowling five times since 2002 winning every game by margins of 21, 14, 13, 3 and 4 points. The Rebels were never favored by more than 3 1/2 points in any of those games. Head Coach Hugh Freeze has experience in the postseason after guiding Arkansas State to a bowl win and cover last year. Georgia Tech has been bowling each of the last five years under Paul Johnson. He |
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State +7 v. Navy | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
231 Middle Tennessee State & Navy in Fort Worth
Now that the line has reached a full seven points it |
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12-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Dallas Cowboys +7 | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
316 Philadelphia at Dallas
This line was Dallas -2 1/2 before the news of Tony Romo not playing hit the airways. Now the line has moved 9 1/2 points with Kyle Orton behind center. There is no way the drop off is anywhere near that number, and we have always been Tony Romo supporters. Orton has plenty of NFL starts on his resume so the difference between him and Romo is just a fraction of the number we are seeing here. In fact, in some ways the Cowboys could be at an advantage. Dallas has been able to run the ball well most of the season but they tend to get away from the ground game. Now with Orton behind center we can see Dallas sticking with their bread and butter for longer stretches. That means less time on the field for the Dallas defense which is their biggest trouble spot by far. The Eagles are coming off a blowout nationally televised victory over the Bears. Their stock couldn |
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12-29-13 | Jacksonville Jaguars +11 v. Indianapolis Colts | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 14 m | Show | |
313 Jacksonville at Indianapolis
Week 17 handicapping in our eyes is all about value. Teams that are in must win situations are going to be overpriced. Teams with nothing to play for are going to be undervalued. Unlike college football where many teams throw in the towel late in the season, these are professionals who are playing for a paycheck. Therefore we are able to take advantage of line value going against the grain in the final week. The Colts can clinch a first round buy with a win here coupled with a New England loss and a Cincinnati loss or tie. Both the Patriots and Bengals are roughly 7 point favorites so for both of those teams to lose is a long shot. Yet the lookahead line on this game a week ago was roughly 5 to 6 points less than the current number as of this writing. Chances are Indy wins this game but to expect them to win by a margin may be too much to ask. The Jaguars have played much better ball the second half of the season and this team doesn |
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12-29-13 | Detroit Lions v. Minnesota Vikings OVER 51 | 13-14 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
319 Detroit at Minnesota
Both teams will be missing their best offensive weapon here as the Lions will be without Megatron and the Vikings will be missing Adrian Peterson. So why then are we playing this game over? This is a game being played inside in December with two quality scoring units. It |
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12-27-13 | Marshall v. Maryland +3 | 31-20 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
218 Marshall & Maryland in Annapolis
Maryland was a team that was devastated by injuries throughout this season. When healthy this club was a real money maker. The extra time off from the regular season gives the Terrapins time to build up reinforcements. The location of this game in Annapolis also favors the Turtles. Teams playing in their own state are able to have an edge in attendance and the excitement of playing in this building is clear from the quotes of the Maryland players. The Terrapins played the tougher schedule and because of injuries this team has stayed under the radar in the betting markets. In our opinion the wrong team is favored here. While Marshall is happy to be here after 6 combined wins the last two years we can |
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -4.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
214 Pittsburgh & Bowling Green in Detroit
The Falcons return to the scene of the crime where last time out they knocked off previously unbeaten Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship. Because of the poor play of the Mid-American Conference thus far we saw money come in against both MAC participants on the Thursday slate. But that isn |
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12-22-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Carolina Panthers -3 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 140 h 47 m | Show |
104 New Orleans at Carolina
Getting this play out now because we feel this line will rise. Quick revenge game here for the Panthers who lost at New Orleans in a prime time affair 31-13 just two weeks ago. That loss broke an eight game Carolina winning streak and is the lone loss for the Panthers in the last ten games. That 31 points allowed by Carolina in that game is a full touchdown more than this team has yielded in any other game this season. The Panthers are 6-1 straight up at home this year with every victory coming by 4 points or more. The lone loss was all the way back in the opening week when Seattle won 12-7. The Saints are 3-4 on the road this year but wins at Tampa Bay and Atlanta have been less than impressive. Earlier New Orleans won at Chicago and lost in dramatic fashion at New England, but it |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
201 New Mexico Bowl Colorado St. v. Washington St.
The Rams have a 1.2 yards per play advantage but they have played a much easier slate of opponents. Colorado State permits 63.3% completions and they are facing off against a Cougars team that passes 77% of the time. The Rams victories this year have come against Cal Poly, UTEP, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico and Air Force. None of those teams are going bowling this year. Washington State beat both USC and Arizona on the road, who are both playing in the post season. They also lost at Auburn by just 7 points. In fact, Washington State has played much better ball outside of Pullman. The Cougars haven |
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12-15-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show | |
332 Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Three of the last five meetings in Pittsburgh have been losses by margins of 28, 16 and 17 points for the Bengals. In 2009 Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh here 18-12 and the Steelers swept Cincinnati the following year, outscoring them 50-28. Last year Cincinnati pulled off the upset once again with a 13-10 victory. As good as this Bengals team has been at home this year they are nothing special away from Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals are 3-4 SU on the road but only one victory was larger than a field goal. Now that the Steelers will be sitting on the playoff sideline for the second straight year, many will feel this team will throw in the towel for the remainder of the season. Those with that thought obviously haven |
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12-15-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | Top | 56-31 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 41 m | Show |
328 Kansas City at Oakland
The Chiefs have averaged 16.8 points per game the last five meetings in Oakland with one of those contests going into overtime. Last year Kansas City was shut out here 15-0. Until a 24-7 victory earlier this year in Arrowhead the Chiefs had failed to cover 5 of the 6 previous overall meetings. After facing divisional rivals Denver twice and San Diego the Chiefs took advantage early against Washington last week and looked very impressive. But keep in mind that Andy Reid knows the Redskins very well from many years at Philadelphia, the Chiefs had a big advantage in that game. Because of the blowout win the game has been adjusted 1 1/2 points from the look ahead lines two weeks ago. Kansas City |
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12-15-13 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Atlanta Falcons | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 74 h 33 m | Show | |
305 Washington at Atlanta
The Falcons are back home after playing 5 of 7 games away from Atlanta. This is a team that has lost 9 of 11 games in straight up fashion. The two victories coming in overtime against Buffalo and against winless at the time Tampa Bay. Going back to preseason the Falcons are 3-14 SU but are laying a full touchdown here. A team that was the number one seed in the NFC Playoffs a season ago. A team that has a 0.1 yards per play advantage in this game. With a less than enthusiastic home crowd how can this line be a full touchdown? Washington is playing lousy football and there is turmoil in the locker room. But the same thing was said about the Dolphins over a month ago and look how that has turned out. The switch at quarterback moved this line a full 1 1/2 points away from the Redskins. Why is the quarterback change a negative? Under RGIII the Skins have scored an average of 12.3 points per game the last four contests. The change at QB isn |
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12-09-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Chicago Bears OVER 47.5 | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
159 Dallas at Chicago
A lot of money came in on the unders yesterday based on the cold weather forecasts along with snow flurries. While the weather obviously played a major part in Philadelphia with the snow accumulation, overall it wasn |
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12-08-13 | Carolina Panthers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 35 m | Show | |
142 Carolina at New Orleans
The Saints own the yards per play advantage 0.6 to 0.2 while the Panthers have the points per play edge .15 to .07. Carolina defends the run well but that |
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12-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 32 m | Show | |
156 Seattle at San Francisco
Stop the season now and put the Seahawks in the Super Bowl. That |
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12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 54.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 7 m | Show | |
144 Detroit at Philadelphia
The Eagles offensive strength this season has been the running game, but that |
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12-08-13 | Detroit Lions v. Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 6 m | Show | |
144 Detroit at Philadelphia
Not the greatest of situations here for a domed team playing in what is expected to be 30 degree weather with rainstorms. Detroit has long struggled on the divisional road in cold cities like Green Bay and Chicago. In fact, the Lions are 1-11 straight up the last six years in those spots. Philadelphia weather isn |
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12-07-13 | Missouri +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 42-59 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
121 Missouri and Auburn at the Georgia Dome
The Tigers just aren |
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
105 Bowling Green and Northern Illinois in Detroit
Northern Illinois is by far the most well known team in this conference based on the FBS runs the last two years, along with Heisman hopeful QB Jordan Lynch. Because of that you are always paying a premium when backing the Huskies, especially in a stand alone televised contest in which the public is involved. Northern Illinois has been an excellent team the last five years under Rod Carey and before him Dave Doeren and Jerry KIll. But in our mind this Huskies team isn |
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12-05-13 | Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
104 Louisville at Cincinnati
The Cardinals have been an overrated club all season and because they continue to post victories the lines haven |
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12-01-13 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 49 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
427 Denver at Kansas City
If you watched the first match-up it was clear that the Broncos were putting in an extra blocker to keep the pressure off Manning who was playing with an injured ankle. They relied on the running game to go along with the short passing attack. But now that Manning has had more time to rest and RB Marino is slightly banged up we expect the offense to open up a bit this week. The Chiefs haven |
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12-01-13 | St. Louis Rams +8 v. San Francisco 49ers | 13-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
441 St Louis at San Francisco
The Rams are playing their best ball of the season now that the running game has improved. The last four weeks St Louis has produced 258, 140, 160 and 200 yards on the ground. Despite the loss in the first meeting this season, the Rams had covered the previous three contests by a combined 27 1/2 points. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road dog under Jeff Fisher who has always been known as a terrific underdog coach. After the 35-11 embarrassment in the first meeting we expect this club to be well prepared for this divisional rival. Short week for the Niners who looked terrific on Monday Night Football. Handicapping 101 says if a team looked good on MNF they will be overpriced the following week. With San Francisco off a MNF affair, a major showdown at New Orleans and a huge home contest against Carolina, this is a letdown spot for the the 49ers. It doesn |
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11-30-13 | Boston College -2 v. Syracuse | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 8 m | Show | |
347 Boston College at Syracuse
The Eagles are now 6-4 on the season after a late comeback victory last week at Maryland. This is a team that can better their bowl placement by finishing the season strong on Saturday. It |
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11-30-13 | South Alabama v. Georgia State +8 | 38-17 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
372 South Alabama at Georgia State
The Jaguars do not deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown here. They have just one road win the last two seasons and that was by a 2 point margin. Georgia State has played the much tougher schedule and have cashed all but one game this season, five of those covers by a touchdown or more. The last two meetings in the series has seen the Panthers outscoring the Jaguars by 2 combined points. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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11-30-13 | Kansas State -17 v. Kansas | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 40 m | Show | |
397 Kansas State at Kansas
Total domination in this series for the Wildcats as Bill Snyder takes special pride in beating up his in-state rival. We |
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11-29-13 | Florida International v. Florida Atlantic -28 | 6-21 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 40 m | Show | |
332 Florida International at Florida Atlantic
Ron Turner is working his magic in Miami turning a once solid program into the laughingstock of the state, that is if you don |
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11-28-13 | Oakland Raiders v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 46.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
305 Oakland at Dallas
This line has risen a bit from the opener but we expect it to rise even further once the game day bettors get involved. Oakland struggled for the most part offensively early in the season but because of injuries the Raiders had to make a quarterback change. Since that time McGloin and company have been pretty consistent moving the football. Point totals of 28, 20, 20 and 21 the last four games and that was against better defensive teams than what they will face on Thursday. When looking at yards per play for the entire season 3 of the 4 categories offensively and defensively between these two clubs far exceed the league average. If you break down the Oakland offense the last three weeks they too exceed league average. So even though the sample size is lower in this instance the QB change has increased offensive performance, therefore we feel those short term numbers are more predictive. Oakland has had trouble keeping the quarterback upright most of the season, allowing an 11% sack rate. But the last three games have seen a huge drop off to 3% sacks, as the blocking has really improved with a pocket passer. Dallas can move the ball on anyone and the defense is playing without key components. Even when healthy the Cowboy stop unit had many questions. On a short week of preparation we give the edge to the offenses who don |
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11-24-13 | Denver Broncos v. New England Patriots +2.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
232 Denver at New England
While there is no doubt the Broncos aren |
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11-24-13 | Dallas Cowboys +3 v. NY Giants | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
229 Dallas at NY Giants
The Cowboys are coming out of the bye week off a blowout loss at New Orleans. This is a team that has lost just twice all season by more than 3 points. Much will be made of the first meeting between these two when the Giants held a 147 yard advantage but lost because of a major turnover disadvantage. But Dallas did create those turnovers and the Cowboys took advantage. New York has the superior yards per play advantage but most of that is because New York trailed badly in their games and had to pass the ball while the opposition looked to run the clock. Dallas has a huge edge in the points per play category as they are far more efficient. The Giants have won four straight games but they beat the likes of Minnesota, Philadelphia, Oakland and Green Bay. While the defense has played better against back-up quarterbacks the offense still has major concerns. We feel the Cowboys are the better team catching points and they have that extra week to prepare. The Giants remain fraudulent and the four wins are all questionable. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-23-13 | Boston College v. Maryland | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
141 Boston College at Maryland
Have a feeling the Eagles are going to take money come game day so let |
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11-23-13 | Georgia State +24 v. Arkansas State | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
187 Georgia State at Arkansas State
When laying a huge number like we see here the favorite must be able to dominate the opposition on both sides of the ball. While we feel the Red Wolves will put up substantial offensive numbers we |
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11-23-13 | East Carolina -6.5 v. North Carolina State | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 9 m | Show | |
129 East Carolina at NC State
While many will look at the easy schedule the Pirates have played, the truth of the matter is that facing weak opposition keeps you fresh this time of the year. East Carolina has played Southern Miss, Florida International, Tulsa and UAB along with a bye the past five weeks. When the Pirates had to step up in class this year they covered by a combined 39 1/2 points against North Carolina and Virginia Tech. The Pirate players and the university in general feel that they are overshadowed in the state by Duke, NC State and North Carolina. This is why the team puts an extra emphasis when playing in-state rivals. East Carolina pummeled the Tar Heels earlier this year 55-31 and now they have the ability to take the state crown by knocking off the Wolfpack. Duke beat NC State and ends the regular season against North Carolina but the Blue Devils don |
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11-23-13 | Cincinnati v. Houston -3 | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 59 m | Show | |
148 Cincinnati at Houston
Has anyone in the country played an easier schedule that the Bearcats? Not a single team Cincinnati has played currently has a winning record. Only one team, Rutgers is playing .500 ball on the year, and the Scarlett Knights are extremely banged up. The fact of the matter is that Cincinnati |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo OVER 72 | 35-17 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
105 Northern Illinois at Toledo
The MAC West all comes down to this. If Northern Illinois wins they play in the MAC Championship, if Toledo wins here and next week against Akron they are in. Both teams own outstanding rushing games which average 6.3 yards per carry. David Fluellen for Toledo, a solid runner will be a game time decision. He has been in and out of the lineup lately, but the Rockets are strong in the run game with or without him. The weather calls for a possibility of rain, but that shouldn |
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11-17-13 | Kansas City Chiefs +8 v. Denver Broncos | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
Kansas City at Denver
Much has been said about the Chiefs easy schedule, but Denver has faced just one team (Indy) with a current winning record. BTW the Broncos lost that game. These teams have played four of the same opponents: Dallas, Philadelphia, the NY Giants and Oakland. Both teams are 4-0 with the Chiefs winning by 52 points and the Broncos winning by 69 points. Kansas City continues to find ways to win and the cold Denver night time weather is a concern for Payton's ankle problems. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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11-16-13 | Oregon State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
363 Oregon State at Arizona State
When handicapping games you must be able to look past what is obvious and find value in what many would overlook. Take for instance this Oregon State offense. The Beavers opened the season by scoring 46, 33, 51, 34, 44, 52 and 49 points. The last two games they were held to just 12 and 14 points. So obviously this offense is regressing. That couldn |
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11-16-13 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -27 | Top | 34-63 | Win | 100 | 126 h 54 m | Show |
360 Texas Tech at Baylor
Last week we had great success backing the Bears and fading the Red Raiders. Why should this week be any different. We have a play on team against a major play against squad. Texas Tech simply does not have the depth to compete against the tough Big 12 late in the year. The last 2+ years Texas Tech is 1-12 SU the final five games of the season with the lone victory coming in double overtime hosting Kansas. The Red Raiders were a 24 1/2 point favorite in that contest. Texas Tech has lost three straight when stepping up in class after starting the season undefeated. Baylor has a 3.7 yards per play advantage to go along with a .50 points per play edge. In a game where 80 plays are expected the Bears would have a 40 point advantage not including special teams play. Many will expect Baylor to have a letdown here after beating up Oklahoma in what was considered a statement game for the host. But each of the last two years the Bears beat Kansas State and Oklahoma outright as double digit dogs and still easily covered the following week. Besides, that Oklahoma game was on Thursday so the Bears have two extra days to prepare. This game is being played in Arlington a neutral site for both these clubs. But Baylor had little problem the last two years taking care of the Red Raiders on a neutral field. We said two weeks ago that we thought Texas Tech was a fraud and it |
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11-16-13 | Memphis v. South Florida +1.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -106 | 82 h 15 m | Show | |
388 Memphis at South Florida
No doubt Memphis is an improved team this year but they are still just 1-6 against FBS competition with the lone win coming against Arkansas State. This is a team that has played an extremely easy schedule with just Central Florida and Houston being quality opponents. South Florida has a 2-5 mark against FBS opponents but they have played the tougher schedule. The Bulls faced Michigan State, Miami Florida, Louisville and Houston. USF also is coming in off a bye week. These two clubs have played two common opponents, Cincinnati and Houston. Memphis lost both those games by 23 combined points while South Florida split being outscored by just 6 points. When looking at season to date numbers we can see where the Tigers could be installed as a slight road favorite. But while the Tigers have regressed slightly the Bulls have played much better ball over the second half of the season. USF has split their last four games against Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville and Houston. That |
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11-16-13 | Houston +17.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
323 Houston at Louisville
Louisville has the better record but we |
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11-16-13 | Miami (Florida) v. Duke +3.5 | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
318 Miami Fl at Duke
Miami has dropped the past four games by a combined 57 1/2 points against the spread. What was once a very promising season for Al Golden and his club has turned into a nosedive. This is a team that is 7-2 on the season but has beaten the likes of Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Savannah State and Wake Forest. Victories against Florida, Georgia Tech and North Carolina are not nearly as impressive in retrospect. Running back Duke Johnson remains out and this offense just isn |
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11-16-13 | TCU v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
392 TCU at Kansas State
The TCU Horned Frogs sit at 4-6 on the season. The truth is that this Horned Frogs team is well below previous editions. The four wins for TCU this year were against SE Louisiana, SMU, Kansas and Iowa State. TCU has now lost 10 of their last 16 games. Last year at home the Horned Frogs lost to Kansas State 23-10. TCU doesn |
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11-16-13 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt -12.5 | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 119 h 1 m | Show | |
322 Kentucky at Vanderbilt
The Wildcats own just one victory on the season against Miami Ohio who is among, if not the worst football team in the FBS. Kentucky hasn |
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11-12-13 | Ohio +10 v. Bowling Green | 0-49 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
301 Ohio U at Bowling Green
These two were expected to compete for the MAC East title before the season started and the Ohio loss to Buffalo last week virtually takes them out of contention. The Bobcats can still forge a three way tie by winning here and having Buffalo lose to these Falcons in their upcoming meeting. That said, Ohio U has set their goal of becoming bowl eligible. One of our favorite handicapping tools is to go against what the public saw last week. What they witnessed last Tuesday was Ohio U getting pummeled at Buffalo 30-3, while seeing Bowling Green pound Miami Ohio 45-3. That gives us an inflated double digit pointspread with a tightly contested series history. Ohio has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and the Bobcats haven |
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11-11-13 | Miami Dolphins -1 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 19-22 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
227 Miami at Tampa Bay
This is a football game with a great deal of volatility. We have the Miami Dolphins who have been under the media microscope all week long taking on the only winless team in the NFL. This is the type of game that can make you look brilliant or like a complete moron. Despite the circumstances we feel we have the clear pointspread winner, and we are stepping out on MNF for just the third time this season. First of all let |
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11-10-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
226 Dallas at New Orleans
Just don |
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11-10-13 | Houston Texans v. Arizona Cardinals -2 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 104 h 53 m | Show |
222 Houston at Arizona
Let |
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11-10-13 | Carolina Panthers v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 42.5 | 10-9 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
219 Carolina at San Francisco
Dating back to last year the Carolina Panthers have scored 21 points or more on the road in 10 of their last 11 games away from Bank of America Stadium. Ever since the coaching staff took the reigns off Cam Newton this offense has exploded. The last four games the Panthers have produced 34, 31, 30 and 35 points. This offense is fully capable of moving the ball on San Francisco and doing so with relative ease. With San Francisco and New England on deck it |
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11-10-13 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
206 Philadelphia at Green Bay
Simply put this is a classic injury overreaction in the betting marketplace. Aaron Rodgers goes down early on Monday Night Football and the Packers were not prepared. After all, the back-up from a year ago Graham Harrell only took four snaps last season. Now with six days to prepare and a logjam atop the NFC North standings, you know the rest of the Green Bay roster will be paying special attention to the game plan. Until last Monday the Packers had gone 29-2 SU at home dating back to the 2009 season. The three wins this year were by margins of 18, 13 and 18 points in Lambeau Field. With Chicago getting their quarterback healthy and the Lions purring along the Packers know this is a pull up your bootstraps type of game. Seneca Wallace isn |
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11-09-13 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida) | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 122 h 6 m | Show | |
137 Virginia Tech at Miami Florida
The Hokies entered the bye week 6-1 on the season and primed for a strong second half run. With Duke and Boston College on the horizon we are sure the team was focused on the November 9th meeting at Miami, with only Maryland and in-state rival Virginia on deck. But something happened on the way to a strong bounce back season, as the Hokies lost outright to both the Blue Devils and Eagles. Turnovers were the key in those 3 and 7 point losses as Virginia Tech had a negative 4 turnover margin in those games despite out gaining both opponents. In fact, Virginia Tech has out gained all but one opponent this season, the lone deficit coming by 35 yards to North Carolina. In last years meeting between these two the Hokies held a 421 to 347 yardage edge but a negative 3 turnover margin did them in. Miami is coming in off a bubble burst loss to Florida State. It not only ruined their perfect season but extended their four year futility at the hands of the Seminoles. With a schedule loaded with the likes of Florida Atlantic, Savannah State, South Florida and Wake Forest, you now have to question just how good this Hurricanes team is. Against the best two teams they faced they were out gained by 201 and 242 yards respectively vs Florida and Florida State. Miami hasn |
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11-09-13 | BYU v. Wisconsin -7 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 126 h 19 m | Show | |
158 BYU at Wisconsin
The Cougars have had an impressive season out gaining every single team they have played. The breakout game was in week two when they ran up an amazing 550 rushing yards against Texas. But the running attack has staggered a bit away from Provo with rushing totals of just 187 at Virginia, 160 at Utah State and 264 at Houston. BYU is averaging a solid 0.8 yards per play more than they allow, but Wisconsin is putting up 2.7 more yards per play that they permit. Both teams strengths are in the trenches but Wisconsin does it better. The Badgers are producing 6.3 yards per carry while allowing just 3.1 ypc. So we don |
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11-09-13 | Auburn -7 v. Tennessee | 55-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 48 m | Show | |
193 Auburn at Tennessee
The Tigers are having a big year but they continue to be underrated in the betting marketplace. The lone defeat on the season was a loss at LSU in a game they were out gained by just 20 yards. Auburn is winning the battle in the trenches this season averaging 0.9 yards per play more than they allow. Tennessee on the other hand allows the same 0.9 yards per play more than they produce. Auburn has a substantial edge in the passing game as they produce 14.5 yards per completion while Tennessee manages just 10.4. On the ground the Tigers average a whopping 5.7 yards per carry and they should have a big game against this Volunteer unit that allows 5.2 ypc. The FBS average is 4.3 ypc which is further illustration of the mismatch in the trenches. Auburn finishes the regular season hosting both Georgia and Alabama. Those games will be virtually meaningless if they don |
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11-09-13 | Missouri -14 v. Kentucky | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 115 h 5 m | Show | |
143 Missouri at Kentucky
The Tigers rebounded nicely from the last second loss to South Carolina. That shows character, something this week |
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11-09-13 | Vanderbilt +10 v. Florida | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 115 h 4 m | Show | |
147 Vanderbilt at Florida
Lot |
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11-09-13 | Florida State -34.5 v. Wake Forest | 59-3 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show | |
133 Florida State at Wake Forest
With an Oregon win over Stanford this week the Ducks will leapfrog the Seminoles in the BCS standings. With only Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho and Florida remaining for the Seminoles they must run up scores. Everyone is counting on a letdown after blowing away Miami Florida, but the talent difference is too great for that to happen. The projected letdown situation is keeping this line in check. The Seminoles have a 4.2 yards per play advantage against Wake Forest. They have a .51 points per play edge in this game. That means based on a 65 play projection the Seminoles should win by 33.5 points not including running up the score. Wake hasn |
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11-09-13 | Kansas State +3 v. Texas Tech | 49-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 42 m | Show | |
155 Kansas State at Texas Tech
Kansas State has covered their last four games by 43 combined points. The Wildcats are 11-3 ATS as a RD since Bill Snyder returned as this has been an outstanding role for the veteran coach. The Wildcats have beaten Texas Tech by a combined score of 96-58 the last two years, covering by 34 combined points. Over the last five games of the season, the last two plus years Texas Tech is 1-11 SU with the only win coming in double overtime against Kansas. This is a team without a lot of depth and they continually break down as the season unfolds. Think of the Big 12 version of Northwestern. Texas Tech has beaten SMU, Stephen F Austin, TCU, Texas State, Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia. Not exactly murderers row. TCU is the best team they played and the Horned Frogs are 2-6 on the season. Texas Tech is overrated based on an easy schedule. The Wildcats are the more accomplished team PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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11-08-13 | Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 59 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
118 Air Force at New Mexico
This is an interesting handicap when it comes to the total. Both teams run forms of the option, which is what each squad sees in practice all season long. Therefore the defenses have an advantage. Both teams have struggled defending the pass, but neither team throws the ball very often. Therefore the defenses have the advantage. Both points involve sound reasoning. So why are we projecting a high scoring game? Because both of these defenses are terrible and both offenses can run the football. The FBS average is 4.3 yards per carry. Air Force runs for 4.9 ypc and allows 4.8. New Mexico on the other hand produces a whopping 6.3 ypc and allows the same 6.3 ypc. You don |
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11-07-13 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -15 | 12-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
110 Oklahoma at Baylor
Simply put we have not been overly impressed by the Sooners this year. Every team they |
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11-06-13 | Central Michigan +21 v. Ball State | 24-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
105 Central Michigan at Ball State
The Chippewas have been an afterthought in the MAC this year which provides us with plenty of value here. Central has played the much tougher schedule after facing the likes of Michigan, Toledo, NC State, Ohio U and Northern Illinois. Despite back to back losing seasons in 2010 and 2011 this is a proud program that has had great success in this league. Dan Enos in his fourth year is making strides and coming in off a Little Caesars Bowl victory last year, the Chippewas are much better than their 3-5 record shows. This team is well rested after having not played since October 19th against Northern Illinois. In that game the Huskies ran all over this team but Ball State hasn |
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11-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens -1 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -123 | 76 h 26 m | Show |
417 Baltimore at Cleveland
You can bet the Super Bowl Champions will give a terrific effort when they travel to Cleveland on Sunday. This is a team who is coming in off a bye after losing back to back nail biters. In fact, Baltimore is 1-3 on the season in games decided by 3 points or less. They have been in every game since the opening contest against the Broncos and now it |
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11-03-13 | Tennessee Titans -1 v. St. Louis Rams | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 44 h 7 m | Show | |
407 Tennessee at St Louis
Here we find a Tennessee team off three straight losses and coming in off a bye with extra preparation time. Jake Locker has more time to ready himself off his injury and we have the superior team taking on a Rams club off a short week. This is a big step down in talent for the Titans after tangling with San Francisco, Seattle and Kansas City. In fact, the Titans have played the much tougher schedule when you back out games against opponents the opposition has produced a .630 winning percentage. Now with an extra week of rest and off a poor streak before the break we are looking for a big game out of Mike Munchak and his squad. St Louis is sure to have a letdown here after hosting a Monday Night Football game for the first time in ages. Not only did they play well, they dominated play only to come up short once again. To make matters worse the game coincided with the World Series where the average ticket price was $700. In turn the Rams were giving away food and drinks in order to get fans into the Edward Jone Dome. Kellen Clemens unfortunately is not the answer and as we have seen four times this season, this team has severe offensive problems. Four times the Rams have been held to 15 points or less as this offense simply cannot survive without a capable quarterback. The spot screams Tennessee and the Rams put up little resistance. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-02-13 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech -9.5 | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show | |
330 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech
The Pitt Panthers have had virtually no running game as of late putting up 166 combined yards the past three games. Despite playing the easier of the two schedules the Panthers are rushing for a whopping 1.8 yards less per attempt than the Yellow Jackets. Pitt has to have the ability to take time off the clock in order to rest their defense, or this could be a long game for the Panther stop unit. To Pittsburgh's credit they just played a similarly styled Navy team but Paul Chryst and company lost that contest as a road favorite. Pitt has failed to cover the number in all three road games this season, and they have only reached 28 points in one road game the past 2 1/2 years. Georgia Tech won at Virginia last week by double digits despite a negative 4 turnover margin. Now that's impressive! In fact, the Yellow Jackets are 3-3-1 ATS on the season despite a minus 7 turnover margin. Considering that the style of play the Yellow Jackets prefer is running the football those numbers are substantial. At 4-3 on the year and with contests against Clemson and Georgia coming after the bye, this is a must win game for Paul Johnson and company. With Pitt struggling to run the football and with an offensive line allowing 12% sacks, we feel the Yellow Jackets will simply wear down this Pittsburgh squad. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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11-02-13 | Northern Illinois -23 v. UMass | 63-19 | Win | 100 | 67 h 59 m | Show | |
321 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts
Now that the Huskies are moving up the charts with an undefeated record it |
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11-02-13 | Ohio State -32 v. Purdue | 56-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
361 Ohio State at Purdue
Wanted to get this out now as we expect a run on this number early in the morning of game day. Urban Meyer has never been shy about running up scores when he has the better athletes. He |
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10-31-13 | Arizona State v. Washington State +12 | 55-21 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
312 Arizona State at Washington State
The Sun Devils sit at 5-2 on the season with both losses coming away from Tempe. Defeats at Stanford and a neutral site game in Arlington Texas against Notre Dame. Arizona State managed just 115 combined rushing yards in those two contests. The visitor has struggled as of late in this series dropping the last four meetings. In fact, despite being road favorites of 11 1/2 and 21 points the last two times the Sun Devils visited Pullman, Arizona State was only able to outscore the Cougars 54-51. Keep in mind in those two seasons Washington State finished with a combined 5-19 record. Washington State hasn |
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10-27-13 | Dallas Cowboys v. Detroit Lions OVER 50.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show |
Dallas at Detroit
Tough scheduling spot for the Cowboys off televised affair with Denver, followed by important divisional games with Washington and Philadelphia. Dallas is now set up in good position to win this division as the offense has been outstanding. But we do have serious concerns about this defense who will be missing two key components on Sunday. This is a team allowing 5.7 yards per play while producing 5.8 ypp themselves, this against a pretty solid slate of opposition. They should have little problem moving the football against a Detroit defense that has yielded a whopping 6.3 yards per play. The league average in that regard is 5.4. The Lions permit 5.1 yards per carry so even a banged up Cowboy running game should have success. Offensively Detroit is dangerous, especially playing at home. Detroit has a bye week on deck and this game means much more to them than the Cowboys. That said Dallas is the better team but the spot screams Detroit. Rather than get too involved with the side here we will look for a shoot em out offensive affair, as we feel neither team will have much success stopping the opposition. PLAY OVER |
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10-26-13 | South Carolina +3 v. Missouri | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 7 m | Show | |
189 South Carolina at Missouri
The Gamecocks have played the slightly tougher schedule and they are playing their third straight game on the road. But it's also their last road game of the season, and other than a year ending game against in-state rival Clemson the path looks to be smooth sailing with a win here. South Carolina is 14-10 ATS in the road dog role and in Steve Spurrier's coaching career he is 39-26-1 SU off an outright loss. The Gamecocks have out gained every opponent this year except Georgia, and have virtually identical numbers in all the key statistics despite Missouri playing a little easier schedule. A major reason for Missouri being favored here is turnovers. They have lost only 3 fumbles this year while the Gamecocks have lost 9. That's likely not a sustainable stat. South Carolina's defense is better than the stats show as they are only allowing 11.2 first downs per game on first and second down. That means they have the ability to limit big plays and make the offense work harder than the raw numbers show. While South Carolina is off a loss as a road favorite at Tennessee, Missouri is in a letdown spot this week. Two weeks ago Missouri as a 7 point road underdog shocked Georgia. Unfortunately starting QB James Franklin went down in that contest and is likely out for the entire season. In stepped highly touted QB Maty Mauk who not only didn't falter against Georgia, but he led the team to a victory last week against Florida. Teams have a tendency to pull together in the face of key injuries which is exactly what the Tigers did. But now after the back to back huge victories to put Missouri on the map a letdown is sure to occur. Missouri is a very good team but the situation calls for the Gamecocks here. We get a terrific spot with at least a team of equal ability at a nice underdog price. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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10-26-13 | Utah +6.5 v. USC | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 50 m | Show |
149 Utah at USC
Now that QB Travis Wilson has greatly improved at practice we will send this selection out while 7's are still available. The last two seasons the Utes gave ranked USC squads all they could handle and at this point we are not sure that Kyle Whittingham's team isn't the better squad. Utah has played the significantly tougher schedule and yet have very comparable numbers. When making the needed adjustments regarding the opposition Utah is equal or even better in most of the key statistics. USC still has a slight edge defensively but the Utah offense towers over this scoring unit for the Trojans. Not only is the USC offense weak, it's missing virtually all it's starting skill position players. This is a banged up offense that has been held to 7, 10 and 17 points so far this season. While this Ute defense isn't stellar we can't see these remaining Trojan bodies putting up more than 20 points in this game. That's why taking the current touchdown has so much value. The Trojans most impressive victories this season came against Arizona and Utah State, two teams that for various reasons have not lived up to preseason expectations. Utah on the other hand beat two outstanding football teams in Stanford and BYU. While the attitude in Los Angeles is better since the coaching change the players on hand haven't impressed with their play. PLAY UTAH |
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10-26-13 | Wake Forest v. Miami (Florida) -23 | 21-24 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 45 m | Show | |
160 Wake Forest at Miami Florida
These two clubs have played virtually identical schedules on the season so the numbers are very easy to compare. The Demon Deacons at one time were an excellent road dog under Jim Grobe but those times have changed. Over the past seven seasons Grobe has posted a 7-17 spread mark catching points away from Winston-Salem. Wake has yet to out gain any FBS opponent by more than 10 yards in any game and that includes the likes of Louisiana Monroe and Army. This team has been held to double digit rushing yardage in 4 of 6 games against the FBS. The Demon Deacons are averaging just 4.8 yards per play on offense as opposed to Miami's whopping 7.3. The Hurricanes are permitting an opponent quarterback rating of 55.8 while the FBS average is 80.5. At 2.8 yards per carry offensively for Wake Forest and with a terrific pass defense for Miami, my question would be how is this Demon Deacon squad going to score? The line in this game is being held down because of the lookahead situation for Miami. They have in-state rival Florida State on deck. But recent history shows no lookahead to the Seminoles has been involved. The last three seasons prior to taking on Florida State Miami is 3-0 ATS covering the pointspread by a combined 29 1/2 points, roughly 10 points per game. Wake has no way to move the football on Miami and in turn no chance for the backdoor cover. We will lay the wood with the much better team at a cheap price. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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10-25-13 | Boise State +7 v. BYU | 20-37 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
109 Boise State at BYU
The Boise State starting quarterback is out in this contest, backup Grant Hedrick gets the start. He was 18 for 21 last week against Nevada in a backup role, rushing for 115 yards, the first time since 2004 a Boise State QB ran for over 100 yards. His dual ability will make it tougher defensively for the Cougars. Boise has out gained the opposition in 6 straight games as the team has progressed nicely since the opening week debacle against Washington. The Broncos have run for over 200 yards in 5 of 7 games. Boise State has won all 3 of the previous meetings including a 7-6 victory over BYU last year in one of the biggest defensive battles we have ever witnessed. Both teams are virtually equal in almost all the key stat categories although BYU has played a slightly tougher schedule. Therefore the line should be in the 4 range, we are getting an extra 3 points based on the QB change, which we feel isn't fully warranted. In fact, many in the Boise State community are questioning why Joe Southwick should get his job back after the injury. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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10-24-13 | Marshall v. Middle Tenn State UNDER 57 | 49-51 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 43 m | Show | |
108 Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
The Thundering Herd came into the season with high offensive expectations. With NFL QB prospect Rakeem Cato at the helm and coming off a season where Marshall averaged 40.9 points per game, the sky was the limit for this offense. After averaging just 21.8 ppg in 2011 this scoring unit was due for regression and that's exactly what has happened to Doc Holliday's club. After starting the season strong against the likes of Miami Ohio and Gardner-Webb this team hasn't been nearly as dynamic offensively. On the season Marshall is averaging just 5.3 yards per play which is less that the FBS average of 5.6. That despite playing a very weak schedule. With Middle Tennessee currently sitting at the league average in yards per play against we can't see this Thundering Herd offense breaking out on Thursday. Marshall is averaging an FBS average of .39 points per play and that has again been vs weak opposition. Defensively Marshall has been extremely good over the course of the season. Allowing 4.5 ypp and .30 points per play. They should have little problem containing a Blue Raider offense that has been terrible all season. Rick Stockstill has done an excellent job since coming to Murfreesboro in 2006. He took his team to the GoDaddy Bowl in 2010 and is coming off a solid 8-4 season. But this years club pales in comparison, especially on the offensive side of the football. This club is averaging just 18.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. The passing game is at 8.8 yards per completion which is well below the FBS average of 12.1. This team can't extend the field offensively and they don't have the ability to come from behind. Defensively the Blue Raiders are grading out as an FBS average stop unit, but they have played a tougher schedule than today's opponent. Coming off back to back games against East Carolina and North Texas this stop unit won't be overwhelmed against this Marshall offense. With the two best units on the field likely being the defenses and with Middle Tennessee State having a hell of a time moving the football, points will surely be at a premium in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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10-20-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 36 m | Show |
400 San Diego at Jacksonville
Short week of preparation for the Chargers off a Monday Night Football victory over the Colts. That was a coming out party of sorts for the host as Indy had been a fan favorite in the early going. Now the Chargers travel cross country on a short week before a bye week on deck. It's very common for those with a vacation on deck to go through the motions the week heading up to the break. It happened to us as kids when vacation was on the horizon and it happens to NFL clubs as well, especially likely in this scenario with San Diego. This is also a team that shows a negative yards per point metric of -0.4, installed as more than a touchdown road favorite. San Diego doesn't run the ball well enough to protect a lead at just 3.7 ypr. When backing out games they are involved in the Chargers have played opponents with a .467 win percentage while the Jaguars faced the much tougher schedule at .667. Jacksonville is a much better team with Blackmon and Henne in the lineup. The last two games the Jags have only been out gained by a combined 33 total yards despite being underdogs of a combined 37 1/2 points. Jacksonville must travel to London after this contest to face the San Francisco 49ers, a very likely defeat. You can bet the players and coaches will give an extreme effort here to get this winless monkey off their backs. PLAY JACKSONVILLE |
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10-19-13 | Georgia State +17 v. Texas State | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 80 h 40 m | Show | |
Georgia State at Texas State
The Panthers have had a rough go of it stepping into their first year of FBS Football. But this is a team that is slowly but surely getting better week after week. Obviously they are overmatched when stepping on the field against the likes of Alabama. But this team can be competitive when stepping down in class like last week against Troy. This is a team that has played the much tougher FBS schedule taking on the likes of West Virginia and Alabama. We also have a club that has cashed four straight games getting over two touchdowns against a team that owns just one quality victory, a 2 1/2 hour lightning delayed win against Wyoming. The Bobcats were out gained by multiple season winless Southern Miss by 185 yards and Louisiana by 376 yards. Texas State has lost outright 3 of the last 4 weeks with the only win being the afore mentioned Wyoming delay game, a contest where the home team had a huge advantage. Texas State is averaging 21.8 points per game on the season against Southern Miss, Texas Tech, Wyoming, Louisiana and UL Monroe. This team simply doesn't have the fire power to lay this type of number to anyone, even a weak team such as this one. The Bobcats are averaging 4.6 yards per play, the exact same number as Georgia State despite playing the far weaker FBS schedule. We won't call for the outright upset but this game will go down to the wire. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |