12-05-15 |
Texas State v. Arkansas State -25 |
|
17-55 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 30 m |
Show
|
310 Texas State at Arkansas State Texas State is ending a terrible season here and have gone 0-5 ATS on the road. This club is going to be overmatched against a steamrolling Red Wolves squad looking to sweep its way to the conference championship. On the season this team has won conference games by averaging 37 points per game. The last five games for Arkansas State resulted in an average of 48 points per game. Throw in the fact that the host leads college football with 24 interceptions, along with having revenge as a road favorite loss last year. All pointing to a blowout victory for the host. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE
|
11-30-15 |
Ravens +4.5 v. Browns |
Top |
33-27 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 3 m |
Show
|
275 Baltimore at Cleveland A great deal of movement on this line as its gone through the key numbers of 3 and 4. The question is why? Yes the Ravens are starting Matt Schaub after the injury to Joe Flacco. But in reality Flacco is having a lousy season. He has a 14 to 12 touchdown to interception ratio with a quarterback rating of 83.1. Both well below his career averages. So while we can see a small drop off with Schaub this line has over adjusted. Besides the line makers knew Schaub was starting when it released the opening number. Baltimore is looking to avenge a home loss to the Browns. While the Ravens haven’t posted many victories this team is in every game. The biggest loss margin on the season was by 8 points to the Cardinals. And seven games have been decided by 4 or less points. So with a spread of this size it would be an outlier to how the Ravens have played all season.Cleveland has one win by more than 3 points all season, a 14 point victory over Tennessee. The last four games the Browns have been outscored by a combined margin of 119 to 45. No way should the Browns be this type of favorite in this divisional contest.PLAY BALTIMORE
|
11-29-15 |
Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 |
|
24-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
25 h 42 m |
Show
|
274 New England at Denver The Pats are already playing with a makeshift offensive line and the receivers are getting hurt each and every week. Brady was very conservative last week against Buffalo and we can really see this team trying to grind out a win here. Denver with a rookie quarterback will not want to put him in danger against a Bill Belichik coached team. Therefore we look for the Broncos to keep the ball on the ground and grind the clock. In a possible playoff preview we look for the defenses and pace of play to keep this one under the posted total. PLAY UNDER
|
11-29-15 |
Steelers v. Seahawks OVER 45.5 |
|
30-39 |
Win
|
100 |
21 h 39 m |
Show
|
271 Pittsburgh at Seattle The Steelers are healthier now than at any point of the season, especially offensively where this team has suffered major losses along the way. The Steelers have excellent skill position players who can really take advantage of the Seahawks through the air. Seattle stops the run well but Big Ben has quality options in the passing game. Offensively Seattle is improving and can find success against this Pittsburgh defense. The running game has more big play ability without Lynch in the game. An excellent runner he’s more of a plodder that isn’t a major passing option out of the backfield. We look for both teams to move the football and the total is rather low. PLAY OVER
|
11-29-15 |
Giants v. Redskins OVER 47 |
|
14-20 |
Loss |
-104 |
17 h 5 m |
Show
|
259 NY Giants at Washington In the first meeting 53 points were scored and we can’t see that number being much of a problem here. The Redskins perform much better offensively when at home especially when it comes to turnovers. The Giants have owned this series as of late scoring at will against this week Redskins secondary. Both teams should move the ball well in key divisional battle. No lead is too big in this one as the contest becomes a shootout. PLAY OVER
|
11-28-15 |
Florida State v. Florida +3 |
|
27-2 |
Loss |
-120 |
28 h 10 m |
Show
|
188 Florida State at Florida Better team as a home underdog in our eyes as the Gators defense is the elite unit on the field. Seminoles have won 4 of the last 5 meetings but Florida State has been much more impressive at home than on the road. Gators offense has struggled as of late and this team overlooked a weak opponent last Saturday. That won’t happen again here. PLAY FLORIDA
|
11-28-15 |
Texas A&M v. LSU -5.5 |
|
7-19 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 50 m |
Show
|
194 Texas A&M at LSU Aggies posted its best game of the season last week shutting out Vanderbilt 25-0. But that type of play has been a rarity for A&M this year. Surprised by the short line here as many have overreacted to the Tigers recent slide. Now surprisingly there is talk of a coaching change at LSU. We’ve yet to talk to anyone who feels a change is needed with this team. LSU is talented but very young and that has been exposed. But back home in a possible final home game for Les Miles we see the Tigers dominating. PLAY LSU
|
11-27-15 |
Missouri v. Arkansas -14 |
Top |
3-28 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 23 m |
Show
|
132 Missouri at Arkansas Revenge game for the Razorbacks who dropped the final game of the regular season last year to the Tigers. QB Brandon Allen has been on fire as of late throwing a school record 7 touchdowns last week in a one point overtime loss. Missou has failed to reach the end zone in its last two road contests, and has only 15 offensive touchdowns in 11 games. The Tigers are averaging just 14.5 points per game. The Tigers need a win to become bowl eligible, and it’s the last regular season game under Pinkle. But this team went all out the last two weeks at home against BYU and Tennessee and we feel the tank is getting mighty low for Missouri.PLAY ARKANSAS
|
11-26-15 |
South Florida v. Central Florida +24.5 |
|
44-3 |
Loss |
-108 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
112 South Florida at Central Florida Sometimes you have to hold your nose and trust your numbers. That’s the case here as we go against the surging Bulls and back a Knights team that has been the biggest disappointment in college football this year. South Florida has won 6 of 7 as of late including trouncing a pretty good Cincinnati team last week on national television. With a shot at the conference championship still in the balance and a bowl game for the first time since 2010, Willie Taggart and crew will be overlooking its in-state rival here.Central Florida on the other hand sits winless on the season. No team wants to be remembered for a zero win season, especially the seniors who had won 31 games the past three seasons. Winless teams have been a money maker playing its last game and with in-state pride on the line we will back the Knights here.PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA
|
11-22-15 |
49ers +13.5 v. Seahawks |
Top |
13-29 |
Loss |
-108 |
16 h 44 m |
Show
|
San Francisco at Seattle We love to take first year coaches off a bye, as the team gets to put in new plays and regroup. That’s the case here for the 49ers who had no thoughts of the playoffs as it was clear this would be a rebuilding job this season. After the head coach left along with his crew and numerous players, nothing was expected in San Francisco. Seattle on the other hand was expected to return to the Super Bowl for the third straight year. The Seahawks enter this game with a losing record and despite the turnaround a year ago this isn’t the same team. Seattle has been overrated all year and are once again here. No way can you trust this team to win by a margin against a divisional rival. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO
|
11-22-15 |
Rams +3 v. Ravens |
|
13-16 |
Push |
0 |
12 h 29 m |
Show
|
459 St Louis at Baltimore Would much rather have Jeff Fisher and his 97-70 ATS mark as a dog than the Ravens who have an 0-7 ATS mark at home. St Louis has the better defense and we don’t see any drop-off from Foles to Keenum. Baltimore is constantly involved in tight ballgames and with a low total the teaser on the Rams is also on our personal card. Just don’t trust the Ravens here who continually find was to lose. PLAY ST LOUIS
|
11-22-15 |
Broncos -1 v. Bears |
|
17-15 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 24 m |
Show
|
Denver at Chicago Why did this line go down based on the Denver QB switch. It was sitting at -6 the week prior in the lookahead and now Chicago is a slight favorite. Does anyone really think the drop off from Manning to Osweiler is a full 7 points? Has anyone watched Manning this year? Osweiler has looked terrific in the spring, and while it’s certainly different than a preseason game the Bears aren’t what you would call a powerhouse defense. Sure John Fox and Jay Cutler would love to take it out on their former employers, but do they have the talent? We will back the far better defense as an underdog here as the Broncos find the backup QB to be superior to the future Hall of Fame QB. PLAY DENVER
|
11-21-15 |
San Diego State -16 v. UNLV |
|
52-14 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 58 m |
Show
|
415 San Diego State at UNLV This one is pretty simple. We have an Aztecs team that runs for 5.1 yards per carry in Mountain West Conference play, going into a defense allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per carry. To make matters worse the Rebels lack the needed depth to slow this locomotive down. While coach Sanchez has done a terrific job in making these players believe in themselves, he just doesn’t have enough players to make a difference. To make matters worse the Rebels will be missing its starting quarterback, and the drop off to number two is substantial. San Diego State has conference edges of 28.2 ppg along with a yardage edge of 249 per game. Look for the Rebels to wear down as San Diego State continues to roll. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
11-21-15 |
Texas A&M v. Vanderbilt +7 |
Top |
25-0 |
Loss |
-120 |
33 h 25 m |
Show
|
400 Texas A&M at Vanderbilt When we are wrong we admit it, as we once had Texas A&M ranked in the Top 10 in the country in our ratings. Boy did we blow that. But here is our chance to take advantage of a team that has been a major disappointment. While the Aggies sit at 7-3 on the season it’s just 3-3 in SEC action, one game ahead of the Commodores. When looking at SEC stats Texas A&M owns a 0.2 ppg edge while Vandy has a 7 yards advantage. The Aggies are being out gained by 0.8 ypp compared to 1.3 ypp for the Commodores. If you consider that the home team has a 3 1/2 point edge this line is saying the Aggies are 10 points better on a neutral field. That’s simply absurd! A&M allows 5.5 yards per rush which gives the Commodores plenty of chances to move the chains and take time off the clock. A big advantage for a home underdog. We will take the points here with a peaking team that has a great chance to win this one outright. PLAY VANDERBILT
|
11-21-15 |
Wake Forest v. Clemson -29 |
|
13-33 |
Loss |
-106 |
26 h 36 m |
Show
|
340 Wake Forest at Clemson Demon Deacons worked out well for us last week as it ran into a Notre Dame team that is very poor as a favorite. That likely won’t be the case this week as Clemson has had no problem extending scores against outmanned opponents. Clemson beat Wake here 56-7 in its last meeting at Clemson Memorial Stadium and we can see a repeat. There is a 31.1 point differential in conference play between these two and a 342 yard edge for the Tigers. In yards per play Clemson is superior by 3.8 in this matchup. With Clemson being tested for much of the game last week against Syracuse, we can see Dabo having the teams attention here. PLAY CLEMSON
|
11-21-15 |
Michigan State v. Ohio State -13 |
|
17-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
26 h 33 m |
Show
|
372 Michigan State at Ohio State While Michigan State sits at 9-1 and Ohio State at 10-0, there is a major difference between these two teams. In Big 10 action Ohio State has played the slightly tougher schedule, yet is winning its games by 22.8 ppg while Michigan State has won by 9.3 ppg. Ohio State is holding a 50 yards per game advantage over the Spartans. Where the big discrepancy is at is yards per play. Michigan State is out gaining foes 5.6 to 5.4. Ohio State on the other hand has a 6.7 to 4.8 edge. Michigan State has taken advantage of a +7 turnover margin in Big 10 play while the Buckeyes are even. Without Ohio State turning the ball over in bunches here the clear edge is with the host. Because of all the talk about the Buckeyes weak schedule you know Urban Meyer will have this opponent circled. PLAY OHIO STATE
|
11-21-15 |
Old Dominion v. Southern Miss -21 |
Top |
31-56 |
Win
|
100 |
41 h 38 m |
Show
|
378 Old Dominion at Southern Miss The Monarchs have played much better ball as of late but that’s about to end on Saturday. Southern Miss is on a mission this year after being truly horrendous the past few seasons. Both teams have overachieved this year, especially Southern Miss who is in line to go bowling with a 7-3 start. In conference play the Golden Eagles have a 33.6 ppg edge and a whopping 260 yard advantage over Old Dominion. While much of that occurred early in the conference schedule the host still has a big edge in this matchup. Southern does have a showdown at Louisiana Tech next week but after posting a combined 4-32 record the past three seasons we can’t see the Golden Eagles taking anyone for granted. PLAY SOUTHERN MISS
|
11-21-15 |
Louisiana Tech -24.5 v. UTEP |
Top |
17-15 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 12 m |
Show
|
411 Louisiana Tech at UTEP Last year the Bulldogs beat the Miners 55-3 while winning yardage by 219. This looks like a repeat situation as we find the much more talented team coming off a well earned bye. UTEP is playing for the fifth straight week and can’t wait for this season to end. In CUSA play Louisiana Tech owns a 30.6 ppg edge along with a 224 yardage advantage with UTEP. In looking at yards per play the Bulldogs are up 1.9 ypp while the Miners are down 1.9 ypp. That’s a very rare 3.8 yardage edge per play to go along with a rested opponent. This one should get ugly in a hurry and get worse from there. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH
|
11-21-15 |
Iowa State +6 v. Kansas State |
|
35-38 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 2 m |
Show
|
381 Iowa State at Kansas State Is the wrong team favored here? We may find out that’s the case after this one is over. Nobody is more prepared for a road game than the Cyclones who have already played at Toledo, Texas Tech, Baylor and Oklahoma. It’s a major step down right now to take on the Wildcats, something not often said with Bill Snyder at the helm. In conference play Iowa State has a 7 point per game advantage and a whopping 134 yards per game edge over the host. How many times do you see a sizable home favorite who has been out gained by 2.5 yards per play. Iowa State has come up 1.1 yards per play short in Big 12 play. We’ve heard that this could be a letdown spot for Iowa State after blowing that game against Oklahoma State last week. But the word we are getting out of Ames is that the team is primed for this Farmageddon contest. PLAY IOWA STATE
|
11-20-15 |
Cincinnati -2 v. South Florida |
|
27-65 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 3 m |
Show
|
315 Cincinnati at South Florida We’ve been believers this year in the South Florida Bulls but the markets are making a big jump this week in our opinion. While the defense is very good and the offense gets better by the week, they are not yet in the same talent level as the Bearcats.Cincinnati has been dominating conference play but sits at just 3-3 on the season, a full game behind the Bulls. The Bearcats are outscoring the opposition by 10.3 ppg while the Bulls are at 6.5 ppg. But the big discrepancy is in yardage as Cincinnati is out gaining the opposition by a whopping 238 yards in conference play while South Florida has just a 16 yard advantage. Turnovers have hurt the Bearcats which is to be expected from a passing team. Cincy has owned this series with a 7-2 record and 9-2 ATS. Against the three common opponents the Bearcats won the yardage battle by 263 while the Bulls had a 21 yards per game edge. Look for Cincinnati to easily cash this televised contest on Friday. PLAY CINCINNATI
|
11-18-15 |
Central Michigan -10 v. Kent State |
Top |
27-14 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 18 m |
Show
|
307 Central Michigan at Kent State Despite playing a slightly harder conference schedule, the Chippewas are outscoring the opposition as compared to Kent by over 24 points per game while having a 200 yard per game advantage over the Golden Flashes. Central has a yards per play advantage of 0.6 as opposed to Kent State which is being out gained by 1.4 yards per play. Kent State was outstanding against the run early in the year but because of lack of depth that advantage is no longer there. Which is why this team has faded down the stretch. In MAC action the Golden Flashes are allowing 4.3 yards per carry after being one of the nations leaders at one point. Kent just doesn’t have the offense to match opposing clubs and now the defense is feeling the pressure to carry the team. Not a good sign tonight against an overachieving Chippewas club. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN
|
11-15-15 |
Panthers v. Titans +6 |
|
27-10 |
Loss |
-120 |
17 h 3 m |
Show
|
256 Carolina at Tennessee Clear flat spot here for the Panthers after facing Green Bay, Indy, Philadelphia, Seattle and division rivals Tampa Bay and New Orleans. In addition some of those games were played in the national spotlight of SNF & MNF. Now they take on a non-conference opponent with a poor record. Easily a spot where we can see the Panthers struggling. Tennessee was expected to be much improved this year but struggled out of the gate and recently fired its coach. But after a bye the new coaching staff put together a solid game plan and the Titans upset the Saints in New Orleans last week. The key was protecting the QB and that is a must here against a very good Carolina defense. The Panthers have been living off defense as the offense has been pretty pedestrian up to this point. We will take the upstart Titans to make a statement here. PLAY TENNESSEE
|
11-15-15 |
Lions v. Packers -10.5 |
Top |
18-16 |
Loss |
-100 |
17 h 10 m |
Show
|
252 Detroit at Green Bay The Lions come in off a bye which is normally worth 1.5 points, but it wasn’t a normal bye. Key members of the front office were fired and the head coach is one step away from joining them. Not a positive week off for the Lions. This is the first game on grass for Detroit who is on an 0-9 run on natural grass. Detroit has the worst run game in the league so they need to become one-dimensional to compete with Green Bay. Not a good sign. Green Bay is 9-2-1 ATS in Lambeau Field. They are coming off back to back road losses which has them tied for the division lead with Minnesota. It’s the first time since 2010 that the Pack fell victim two straight weeks. Green Bay has beaten the Lions here 24 straight times. The Pack is 37-18 ATS against divisional rivals. Lay it. PLAY GREEN BAY
|
11-14-15 |
Wyoming v. San Diego State -24 |
Top |
3-38 |
Win
|
100 |
36 h 34 m |
Show
|
216 Wyoming at San Diego State The Cowboys are playing for the 11th straight week and are coming off it’s big rivalry game with Colorado State, a game it lost badly at home. QB Coffman is scheduled to return this week which is a positive, but this team has done virtually nothing offensively on the road. San Diego State is coming in off a very important late season bye. The Aztecs have dominated the conference as of late and are in top form heading into this matchup. A clear rushing advantage here for the host who is dynamite on the ground while Wyoming is a sieve against the run. QB Smith has gotten better as the season has unfolded completing 125 passes without an interception. Look for the tired and banged up Cowboys to weaken as the game progresses. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
11-14-15 |
Oklahoma v. Baylor -2.5 |
Top |
44-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 51 m |
Show
|
188 Oklahoma at Baylor The Sooners have dominated as of late but did so against a group of also rans. We really like this Oklahoma team but this line movement has gone past the reality point. The Sooners are a great bully but are they ready to win on the road against what we feel is one of the top teams in the nation? The Sooners toughest opponents this year were Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia. They needed a major comeback to edge Tennessee and lost badly against a mediocre Texas team. The Sooners have not proven to us that they are deserving of all this respect. Especially considering Oklahoma lost to Baylor by 34 and 29 points the past two years. Baylor is being criticized because of a soft schedule, but you can only beat the teams placed in front of you. The last five years the Bears are 29-1 straight up at McLane Stadium. In a battle of head coaches we will take Art Briles over Big Game Bob Stoops any day. PLAY BAYLOR
|
11-14-15 |
BYU v. Missouri +7 |
|
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 38 m |
Show
|
190 BYU at Missouri While most of the press regarding this game has focused on off the field racial problems, there is still a contest being played in Arrowhead Stadium. BYU has had severe offensive line problems as of late and it’s been a while since the Cougars played a decent football team. With coach Pinkel following the lead of his players in threatening to not play this game, the mood in the locker room has to be one of unity. While there has been many distractions for Missouri it does have two extra days off before this contest. Also playing in Kansas City should also be an advantage as the entire state has struggled lately with racial bias. Our numbers point to a nice advantage for Missouri but more than anything emotion should be a big edge for the Tigers here. PLAY MISSOURI
|
11-14-15 |
Wake Forest +27 v. Notre Dame |
|
7-28 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 53 m |
Show
|
169 Wake Forest at Notre Dame Demon Deacons coming off a bye, which is big this time of year. The Irish on the other hand have faced a powerful schedule of Pittsburgh, Temple, USC, Navy and Clemson the last six games. With rival Boston College in Fenway Park and Stanford left on the schedule. This is a clear flat spot for the Irish especially after making the latest final four rankings. Notre Dame has been a poor double digit favorite while Wake has been excellent taking double digits out of conference. We back the Demon Deacons here to keep this one under the number. PLAY WAKE FOREST
|
11-14-15 |
Washington v. Arizona State -2.5 |
|
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 16 m |
Show
|
186 Washington at Arizona State The Huskies and Sun Devils are both in danger of not qualifying for a bowl this year. Therefore both teams should give solid efforts here. Something lacking as of late from both. But Todd Graham has only coached one team that ended the season with a losing record and we like his chances here. When breaking down conference games the Sun Devils have produced a solid yardage advantage while the Huskies continue to be out gained. And Arizona State has completely dominated Washington with 9 straight wins and covers. Better talent gets it done for the host here. PLAY ARIZONA STATE
|
11-11-15 |
Bowling Green -3 v. Western Michigan |
Top |
41-27 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 33 m |
Show
|
105 Bowling Green at Western Michigan
Big MAC showdown on ESPN2 on Wednesday as Bowling Green & Western Michigan get ready for a shootout. BG has won the yardage battle in all but one game this season, the opener against Tennessee which had a 47 yard difference. Going into the last game for each BG had a 54-33 explosive yard edge over the opposition while WM sat at 35-38, allowing three more plays of 20+ yards than it achieved. Both teams had permitted 5 drives of 80 yards or more, but while the Broncos had just 9 themselves the Falcons produced 17. This game means more to the visitor as Western still has division opponents Northern Illinois and Toledo remaining on the schedule. The winner of that three team race plays in the MAC Championship game. Bowling Green on the other hand finishes the regular season with a non-divisional Toledo team and Ball State. Those two contests as well as this one are the only MAC regular season revenge games for Dino Babers and his crew. We expect him to emphasize that fact to his team as a motivating factor. The Broncos just played the dregs of the conference Ohio, Miami, Eastern Michigan and Ball State. This is a huge step up game for the host.PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
11-08-15 |
Rams +2 v. Vikings |
Top |
18-21 |
Loss |
-110 |
3 h 58 m |
Show
|
455 St Louis at Minnesota Now that the ground game has kicked in with Todd Gurley the Rams are a team we will be looking to back. The defense has been outstanding and the head coach has been a terrific underdog in his career.Minnesota has regrouped in fine fashion since the opening night blunder in San Francisco. But we still don’t believe in this team as in our eyes they have been very fortunate. A weak schedule has been the main reason, but the lack of protection from this offensive line is our biggest concern. Huge advantage in the trenches here as the Rams get to the QB often.PLAY ST LOUIS
|
11-07-15 |
Wisconsin -10.5 v. Maryland |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 30 m |
Show
|
391 Wisconsin at Maryland Wisconsin is getting healthy and the key offense ball carrier is not back in action. While the offensive line hasn’t been nearly as productive this season, it hasn’t been helped by banged up ball carriers. Now we can really see how this Wisconsin run game can do with all its weapons. Maryland doesn’t have a lot of depth and when facing a downhill running team that weakness can be exploited. Look for the Badgers to pull away in the second half as the Terrapins fade. PLAY WISCONSIN
|
11-07-15 |
Cincinnati v. Houston -9 |
|
30-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
29 h 32 m |
Show
|
348 Cincinnati at Houston Both teams have excellent offenses but the Cougars have by far the better stop unit. The problem with the Bearcats is the defense allows quick scores along with a quick strike offense. That means the stop unit has to get back on the field quickly, a likely reason for some of the problems. Houston’s defense isn’t worn down and it faces less plays and has better success. We will back the host in a game in which one poor unit on the field gets exploited. PLAY HOUSTON
|
11-07-15 |
Vanderbilt +21 v. Florida |
|
7-9 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 7 m |
Show
|
341 Vanderbilt at Florida Last week Vandy faced an elite passing team in Houston, Florida doesn’t have that ability to attack through the air. The Commodores lost the turnover battle by three to Western Kentucky, Georgia and South Carolina yet only lost those games by 2, 17 and 9 points. That shows me that even when times are tough this team is able to stay competitive. Florida’s two biggest wins on the season were against Mississippi and Georgia, games in which the Gators had a turnover advantage of four in each game. When not holding a large turnover edge Florida won by 7 against East Carolina, 5 against Kentucky and a single point to Tennessee. PLAY VANDERBILT
|
11-06-15 |
Temple -14 v. SMU |
|
60-40 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 40 m |
Show
|
319 Temple at SMU Many out there feel that the loss to Notre Dame was a bubble burst loss for the Owls. We don’t see it that way. Temple lost at home to Notre Dame last week in a tightly contested contest, but it’s not like the Owls were looking to play for the National Championship. They still remain undefeated in conference play with the league title in their grasp. If anything that close defeat was a confidence builder for this club. Now after tasting defeat the Owls drop way down in class to take on an SMU team that while improved is still one of the lesser teams in the nation. SMU wants to play fast which means more plays and a longer game which is an advantage to the better team. More plays mean more chances for the Owls to extend a lead. We have the much better defense in Temple and an inconsistent offense with SMU who looks competent one week and totally lost the next. We will lay the short number with the far better team here off a rare loss. PLAY TEMPLE
|
11-05-15 |
Baylor -17 v. Kansas State |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
29 h 21 m |
Show
|
307 Baylor at Kansas State Now that the Baylor starting QB is out for the season with a neck injury the Bears have turned into an afterthought in the national landscape. Even the rankings that came out yesterday have Baylor sitting on the sidelines for the Final Four Playoff. But as Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. The new QB Jarrett Stidham may be better than any that have played the position over the past decade. The players have talked highly of him and his stats have been outstanding in mop up duty. Both teams are off a bye but with a new signal caller the extra time to prepare edge goes to the Bears. Bill Snyder is one of the all-time great college coaches. He has been especially good in the underdog role. But this Wildcats team is just a shell of its earlier self as injuries have devastated this team, especially in the defensive backfield where Baylor can really take advantage. Kansas State is being out gained by 222 yards per contest in Big 12 action, not a good sign when facing the nation’s elite offense. PLAY BAYLOR
|
11-01-15 |
Jets -3 v. Raiders |
Top |
20-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 49 m |
Show
|
269 NY Jets at Oakland Despite the loss to the Patriots last week it’s clear the Jets are a very formidable team. The defense is outstanding and the offense has gotten better by leaps and bounds. A big talented receiver, a power back and improvement at the quarterback position all point to a quality team in New York.The Raiders are getting better, but they are not at the Jets level as of yet. Oakland will have a hard time rushing on this stout Jets defense which puts the onus on the young Raiders signal caller. While much improved he isn’t going to have a fun time throwing into this terrific man to man defense. Oakland hasn’t performed well of of wins and this is an important game for the Jets who likely will be fighting for a wild card.PLAY NY JETS
|
11-01-15 |
Air Force v. Hawaii +7 |
Top |
58-7 |
Loss |
-125 |
26 h 11 m |
Show
|
206 Air Force at Hawaii The Falcons haven’t visited the Big Island since 2001. Air Force has Army on deck which is a much more important contest. Hawaii returns home after 4 of 5 games on the mainland. This is a team that has already faced Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise State. The Warriors defended the option against New Mexico just two weeks ago. With 4 of the final 5 games at home we look for Hawaii to end the season strong. Starting with a victory on Saturday against Air Force. PLAY HAWAII
|
10-31-15 |
South Florida +7 v. Navy |
|
17-29 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 33 m |
Show
|
123 South Florida at Navy The Bulls are on the improve as the offense is starting to come together. The defense is solid and coming off a complete shutdown of a potent SMU offense. This veteran stop unit should be able to keep this Navy team in check similar to a far less talented defense in Tulane last week. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA
|
10-31-15 |
Western Kentucky -24 v. Old Dominion |
|
55-30 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
181 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Although the final score didn’t show it the Hilltoppers played LSU very close a week ago. This is an excellent team that has shown a bully attitude against lesser opposition. Western scored 66 last year against Old Dominion and this years Monarchs team pales in comparison. Despite eight returning offensive starters the host hasn’t been the same without Taylor Heinicke behind center. The Monarchs don’t have the scoring to keep this close. PLAY WESTERN KENTUCKY
|
10-25-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs |
|
13-23 |
Loss |
-112 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
455 Pittsburgh at Kansas City In what we expect to be a low scoring game we will side with the Steelers and Landry Jones. While the team waits for Big Ben we get to see if Jones can build on his success last week against the Cardinals. While he's only a backup quarterback he does throw the ball downfield which opens up the Steelers running game. Kansas City already can't throw the ball downfield and now is without its top rusher. The loss of Charles was highly evident a week ago. Keep in mind after this game the Chiefs head to London with their families. Teams are now 1-10 ATS the week before playing in London. PLAY PITTSBURGH
|
10-25-15 |
Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins -4 |
|
26-44 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 51 m |
Show
|
458 Houston at Miami We've had a stready diet of going against the Texans this year. This team was overrated before the season and hasn't shown any reason to back them. Hoyer should have been the QB all along and everyone knew it except the head coach. The defense even with the best player in the league on that side of the ball continues to get pounded. Miami is a talented team that started the year with just a terrible head coach. This team has far better talent than what was shown early in the season. Now off a solid outing and confidence high we look to back the better team here at a cheap number. PLAY MIAMI
|
10-24-15 |
Washington State +7.5 v. Arizona |
|
45-42 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 46 m |
Show
|
411 Washington State at Arizona Washington State hasn’t lost an FBS game this year by more than 6 points and that came at California, a superior team to the Wildcats. The Cougars have already won crossing the country at Rutgers and winning outright as well at Autzen Stadium against the Ducks. The last two weeks this team put up 97 combined points against the Oregon schools and should find plenty of success here. We didn’t like this Arizona team coming into the season and have seen nothing to change our minds. Despite a 5-2 straight up mark this team has been pounded when stepping up in class. While that’s not the case here we have this game much closer in our power ratings than this line dictates. When facing Top 40 offenses Arizona has permitted 56 and 55 points along with 497 and 550 yards. We have this Cougars offense in the same range as Stanford and UCLA, the two teams Arizona couldn’t compete with. Real chance for another outright road win here for the Cougars. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE
|
10-24-15 |
Hawaii +7 v. Nevada |
|
20-30 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 21 m |
Show
|
409 Hawaii at Nevada The Warriors have gotten a lot of flak about its lack of scoring on the mainland. But take a look at the teams it played, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise State. Finally dropping down in class last week Hawaii put up 27 covering the spread at New Mexico. This is a team that has been installed as a combined 101 point underdog in FBS games and yet has only permitted 20 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. That’s 12 less explosive plays than Nevada who has been a cumulative underdog by 31 points. The only FBS teams to exceed 402 total yards against Hawaii were Wisconsin and Boise State. Only Ohio State and Boise State have surpassed 28 points against Hawaii which makes taking over a touchdown such a strong value. Nevada has been favored over FBS competition three times this year, losing 2 of 3 outright. The Wolf Pack are 2-4 on the year vs FBS teams despite never losing the turnover battle in any of those games. Which tells us that the host isn’t worthy of this type of favoritism. PLAY HAWAII
|
10-24-15 |
Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech |
|
45-43 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 33 m |
Show
|
361 Duke at Virginia Tech Revenge game for Duke as a one point loss a year ago kept them from playing in the ACC Championship. Duke has been a nice money maker as of late with a 23-9-1 ATS mark while the Hokies are money burners at 20-37-2 ATS. The Hokies are known as a superior special teams squad but those beliefs are in the past. Duke has the far better kicking game in this matchup. Duke enters this game off a bye and we feel this squad is clearly superior to Virginia Tech. The Hokies will get its starting quarterback back this week after playing a bit in the second half a week ago. But this team and program is on the downside the past few years. Despite Virginia Tech owning this series with a 13-1 SU mark, the better team catching points is the way to go here. PLAY DUKE
|
10-24-15 |
Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 61.5 |
|
26-52 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 44 m |
Show
|
327 Indiana at Michigan State On the season these two clubs have combined for 146 explosive plays, the same number as Memphis at Tulsa last night. That total was in the 77 range while this one sits more than two full touchdowns less. The last two years these two combined for 73 and 70 points and this Spartans defense is nowhere as good as those units. Indiana has put up 27 or more and 400 yards against all but one opponent, including Wake Forest and Ohio State who both have strong stop units. Michigan State is sure to have a letdown here after that amazing finish at Michigan. The team has a well needed bye after this game. The Spartans are a talented offensive team but this defense has been exploited. This team has permitted 11 drives of 80 yards or more and allowed 37 explosive plays. With the in-state showdown finally over and with a bye on deck we can see the Spartans playing this game free and easy. That points to a lot of scoring. PLAY OVER
|
10-24-15 |
Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 |
|
17-41 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
324 Ohio U at Buffalo Ohio has played one quality offense all season and that was last week against Western Michigan. Against teams of Buffalo’s ilk the Bobcats have allowed just 16 points a game. Ohio has only 20 explosive plays on the season and coming off by far its worst defensive performance of 49 points, we can see this team stepping up the “D” once again. Buffalo has the same problem moving the football with just 13 explosive plays on the season. This team is averaging less than 21 points per game against FBS squads. It too is coming off its worst defensive performance of the year allowing Central Michigan 51. Every other team scored 28 or less and that includes Bowling Green who has dominated offensively against everyone. With both teams off season highs in points allowed we will expect a low scoring affair here. PLAY UNDER
|
10-24-15 |
Central Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State |
|
23-21 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 37 m |
Show
|
317 Central Michigan at Ball State It’s not often you can find value in the only undefeated ATS team in the country. But the betting public has been slow to react to the Chippewas. Central Michigan has scored 29 points or more against everyone besides Big 5 opponents Oklahoma State and Michigan State. This team has covered the number by 4 points or better in every game and is beating the closing line by a combined 68.5 points. Despite being a combined 57.5 point dog to FBS opposition the Chippewas have produced eight more explosive plays than it allowed. Ball State on the other hand has been a combined 46 point underdog to FBS opposition and have allowed 13 more explosive plays than it has produced. The Cardinals have been a quality team taking points in the past, but are just 1-3 ATS this season. In three home games this season this team failed to cover by 21 against VMI, by 8 vs Toledo and by 25 against Georgia State. All this despite the fact that Ball State hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN
|
10-24-15 |
Bowling Green -13.5 v. Kent State |
Top |
48-0 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 19 m |
Show
|
321 Bowling Green at Kent State The Falcons have moved the ball effectively against everyone. Producing yardage numbers of 532, 725, 536, 539, 579, 692 and 557 yards. That includes teams from the SEC and two from the Big 10, all on the road. Bowling Green has produced 49 explosive plays while allowing just 30. This team has had an amazing 16 drives of 80 yards or more while allowing only 5. The Falcons haven’t been stopped by anyone and we can’t see Kent State being an exception. Kent State defends the run well but that’s about the only positive for the Golden Flashes. Two weeks ago this team allowed 38 points and 518 yards to Toledo, a comparable team to the Falcons. Offensively the Flashes have been held to 3 against Illinois, 7 vs Minnesota, 7 to Toledo, 15 to Umass and just 20 against bottom feeder Miami Ohio. Kent has produced just 16 explosive plays on the season, less than a third of what BG has accomplished. Quite simply the Flashes don’t have the offensive ability to match points with the Falcons and the defense can’t control them. PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
10-23-15 |
Memphis v. Tulsa +11 |
|
66-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 13 m |
Show
|
312 Memphis at Tulsa We can see a major letdown here for Memphis after upsetting SEC member Mississippi a week ago. Many players playing for the likes of Memphis grow up dreaming about being recruited and playing in the SEC. It’s not hard to imagine those players had last weeks game circled. The Tigers have moved the ball on everyone, but we have serious concerns about laying double digits on the road with this defense. The last four games the Tigers have permitted 480, 377, 752 and 579 yards. Memphis has allowedd seven drives this season of 80 yards or longer.Tulsa can move the ball just as well if not better than Memphis with yardage outputs of 463, 563, 456, 603, 600 and 618 yards. The Golden Hurricane have produced 38 explosive plays which is actually eight more than the Tigers. While Tulsa gives up a lot of yardage this team has only permitted three 80 yard or higher drives this season, four less than Memphis. In an obvious high scoring affair we will back the host who has a good shot at the outright upset.PLAY TULSA
|
10-22-15 |
Temple v. East Carolina OVER 47.5 |
|
24-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
307 Temple at East Carolina Now that the total has dropped we are stepping out with a play on the over here. These two teams have combined for 108 plays of 20 yards to higher this year which would equate to a total in the mid 50’s. Take a look at the poor offenses Temple has faced, Penn State, Charlotte, Tulane and Central Florida. UMass has the ability but still ranks in the lower 30 offensively. Only Cincinnati has a quality offense and 60 points were scored when those two teams got together. East Carolina games tend to be high scoring. In fact, this is by far the lowest total of the season for the Pirates. All but one of their FBS games surpassed the total. Last week the Pirates tried to slow down the Tulsa Hurricane by snapping the ball after 26.7 seconds. That was much higher than the average of less than 23 seconds per play. Which is a major reason why that game last week stayed under the total. The weather is on no concern here so the track will not be affected. Look for East Carolina to return to a quicker offense to keep the Owls from making defensive adjustments. PLAY OVER
|
10-18-15 |
Miami Dolphins +2 v. Tennessee Titans |
Top |
38-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
265 Miami at Tennessee Willing to back the better personnel here with the Dolphins off a terrible performance in London and two weeks to prepare. Gone are the Head Coach and Defensive Coordinator which should point the Dolphins in a positive direction. This team was expected to contend this year so the changes can’t hurt. Tennessee has taken plenty of money this season and we can’t understand why. Sure this isn’t a two win team any longer but it’s not like the playoffs are on the horizon. Better team gets the win here as Miami starts to put it back together.PLAY MIAMI
|
10-17-15 |
San Diego State +3 v. San Jose State |
|
30-7 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 37 m |
Show
|
211 San Diego State at San Jose State Wrong team favored here as Rocky Long’s bunch starting to play with confidence. While the Aztecs are coming back to the mainland from Hawaii, San Jose State had to go to overtime last week to beat UNLV without its starting quarterback. San Diego State has won 11 of 16 Mountain West Conference road games in straight up fashion. Also 18-7-1 ATS in conference play as of late. Long is best in the second half of the season and his team has a distinct rushing advantage in this game. San Jose State excels against the pass but struggles defending the run. All San Diego State does is run. Look for an easy Aztecs victory. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
10-17-15 |
Florida +7.5 v. LSU |
|
28-35 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 25 m |
Show
|
161 Florida at LSU Too much of a line move after the Florida starting QB was suspended for the season. The back-up started the year as the main man and has plenty of experience. As a side note this is the fourth straight game LSU has faced off against a back-up signal caller. Florida stops the run allowing just 101 yards on the ground this season. LSU on the other hand is a one dimensional team with the likely Heisman Trophy running back. The night game favors the host, but we don’t see the Gators that far off in talent from the Tigers. LSU is unproven right now while Florida looks to be a team on the rise. PLAY FLORIDA
|
10-17-15 |
Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -2.5 |
|
10-19 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 18 m |
Show
|
190 Vanderbilt at South Carolina Overreaction here as money has flooded in on the Commodores after the resignation of Steve Spurrier. Our contacts down south have talked about his losing the passion for football the last couple seasons. He enjoys the golf course and a few drinks which have cut into his time with the team. The players voted on who they wanted to replace him and this Gamecocks team has much more talent than Vanderbilt. Emotion will be key here as the coach basically quit on his players. You can bet the team will want to prove the Ole Ball Coach wrong for giving up on them. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA
|
10-17-15 |
Alabama v. Texas A&M +4 |
|
41-23 |
Loss |
-104 |
28 h 50 m |
Show
|
160 Alabama at Texas A&M Alabama should move the ball well on the ground here but this is the type of team that has given the Tide fits over the last few years. A&M has cashed 2 of the last 3 meetings but Alabama blew them out a year ago 59-0. So now A&M in addition to shutout revenge has an extra week to prepare, while Alabama is off physical Georgia and Arkansas. The Texas A&M defense is better this season and DC John Chavis knew how to defend the Tide the last six years at LSU. Bama has scored 106 total points the past five years against his Tigers defenses, slightly over 21 points per game. Anything close to that here and the Aggies get the cover with a real shot at a victory. PLAY TEXAS A&M
|
10-17-15 |
Michigan State +7.5 v. Michigan |
|
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 49 m |
Show
|
173 Michigan State at Michigan Michigan State was favored by 5 1/2 points before the season, four just two weeks ago and was even with Michigan last week. Now the Spartans are getting over a full touchdown based on current events. But keep in mind the Wolverines ran the opening kickoff back and after a three and out scored again. Northwestern was down 14-0 before the game was really underway, and the Wildcats aren’t built for comebacks. Michigan state has won 6 of 7 in this series while cashing the last 7 meetings. The Spartans have won 19 of 20 Big 10 contests, including 11 straight on the road. Michigan State is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a single digit dog. Too much of an overreaction here. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
|
10-17-15 |
Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Georgia Tech |
|
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 49 m |
Show
|
169 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech is a one-dimensional offense with real injury concerns in the backfield. The key to the Yellow Jackets is the run game and these ball carriers are dropping like flies. Obviously this coincides with Georgia Tech dropping four straight games. The defense is also struggling as this looks to be a non-bowling year for the host. Pittsburgh has lost just one game, a 3 point defeat to undefeated Iowa. This team stops the run extremely well and looks to avenge a complete turnover prone contest a year ago. Wrong team favored here. PLAY PITTSBURGH
|
10-17-15 |
Purdue +24 v. Wisconsin |
|
7-24 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 21 m |
Show
|
139 Purdue at Wisconsin Wisconsin has dominated this series winning and covering 9 straight. But off a last second come from behind victory over Nebraska we can see Wisconsin being disinterested this week. Purdue isn’t world beaters by any means, but it has posted a nice 9-5 spread mark the past four seasons in the road dog role. Keep in mind Wisconsin just gave Hawaii 24 1/2 here three weeks ago and we have Purdue a full 7 points better than Hawaii in our power ratings. We will go against the uninterested favorite here. PLAY PURDUE
|
10-17-15 |
West Virginia v. Baylor -21 |
|
38-62 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 18 m |
Show
|
176 West Virginia at Baylor Huge revenge game here for Baylor who lost last year to West Virginia costing this team a chance to play in the final four. Keep in mind that was the game following the huge match-up against TCU. Baylor is 17-7 ATS as a double digit favorite and has had this game circled for close to a year. West Virginia held the Bears to season lows in points, yards and first downs in that game. A Baylor offense which has led the nation in yardage the last three years and doing so again. Unless West Virginia can keep this Baylor offense off the field by having a big rushing game, the Bears win in a blowout. PLAY BAYLOR
|
10-17-15 |
Louisville +7.5 v. Florida State |
|
21-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 17 m |
Show
|
201 Louisville at Florida State The Cardinals are 11-0 ATS as a road dog and Bobby Petrino coached teams are 22-8 ATS playing in revenge. Louisville is coming off a bye week while Florida State outlasted top rival Miami Florida a week ago. Florida State is just 5-15 ATS its last 20 games as this team is always a shaky favorite. Florida State has made pulling out these type of games on the scoreboard a habit, but we think that streak ends here. PLAY LOUISVILLE
|
10-15-15 |
Auburn v. Kentucky +2 |
|
30-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
53 h 28 m |
Show
|
106 Auburn at Kentucky In our memory we can’t come up with a team that has had as much of a collapse as these Tigers. Thought by many to be a major contender for the national title along with one of the strongest coaching staffs in recent memory. This is a team that has yet to cover a number having lost to the spread by a combined 70 points in five games. The Tigers have been out gained in all but one contest, including last time out against San Jose State. If Auburn didn’t have a +4 turnover edge in that game the Tigers would have lost to a Mountain West Conference team at home. A major reason for the struggles has been the inability to move the ball down the field on a consistent basis. Despite being favored in all but one FBS game this team has allowed 7 more explosive plays than they earned. On the season in FBS games Auburn has yet to have a drive of 80 or more yards. This offense can’t be trusted in the road favorite role.Kentucky had a major scare before the break needing overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky. While it was an obvious look ahead spot with a bye on deck we will stack up the Wildcats work against the Tigers any day. Keep in mind this team lost the turnover battle to Florida and still only lost by 5, being out gained by just 4 yards. The Wildcats also won on the road at South Carolina and beat Missouri. Kentucky is the better team right now as the stats obviously prove. Don’t let the names on the uniforms cost you a money making play on Thursday.PLAY KENTUCKY
|
10-13-15 |
Arkansas State v. South Alabama +4 |
Top |
49-31 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
102 Arkansas State at South Alabama Have not been impressed with the Red Wolves who have failed by 21 points or more to the spread in 3 of 4 FBS contests. This is a team that went 1-3 ATS in the road favorite role in the first season of Blake Anderson’s tenure and was pounded at both USC and Toledo this year. Stepping down in class didn’t help them against Idaho last time out.South Alabama was beaten at Arkansas State last season 45-10, it’s worst defeat of the year. The last time the Jaguars played in Ladd-Peebles Stadium it was crushed by NC State 63-13. This will be a team on a mission here tonight and despite just 5 returning starters from a year ago we find value in the home dog. Despite being a substantial underdog in every game, this is a club that has been able to be competitive in explosive plays, something the Red Wolves have lacked. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA
|
10-11-15 |
Arizona Cardinals -3.5 v. Detroit Lions |
|
42-17 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
467 Arizona at Detroit The Cardinals moved the ball at will last week except for shutting down in the red zone against a stout St Louis defense. That shouldn’t be a problem here against a Detroit stop unit that takes a step back this year. Arizona has a sizable coaching edge here and we would much rather have Palmer behind center for his decision making. Who knows the mentality of the 0-4 Lions off the way it lost the game last week. Keep in mind this team entered the year as a solid contender for the Wild Card. If Detroit comes up short again here as we expect the Lions to be a bet against team most of the remainder of the year. PLAY ARIZONA
|
10-11-15 |
Buffalo Bills +1 v. Tennessee Titans |
|
14-13 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 37 m |
Show
|
453 Buffalo at Tennessee Well aware of the Bills’ skill position injuries and that the Titans are off a bye, but feel Buffalo is the better team off a poor performance. Let’s take a quick look at the quarterbacks these two clubs have faced this season. Buffalo went against future Hall of Famers Luck, Brady, Eli Manning and Tannehill. The Titans faced Luck in his last game played before the injury took him out of the lineup, Winston and Manziel. Sure Buffalo hasn’t lived up to defensive promise, but that’s a hell of a run of signal callers. Now the team gets to face a rookie behind center. We are fading the line move in this one. PLAY BUFFALO
|
10-11-15 |
Washington Redskins +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons |
|
19-25 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 30 m |
Show
|
457 Washington at Atlanta Redskins are a team we can make some money on. This team is much better than public perception and if the QB can just manage the game we can see this club surprising this year. Atlanta has gotten off to a great start but we’re not fully buying in. The offense is very good but this stop unit has plenty of flaws. We will back the better defense catching points. PLAY WASHINGTON
|
10-11-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 |
|
24-27 |
Push |
0 |
23 h 27 m |
Show
|
466 Seattle at Cincinnati The Seahawks are an overrated squad right now as its clear this team is really struggling to put points on the board. The off the field problems have put this team behind the eight ball and it may take a few more weeks before we see offensive improvement. Defensively Seattle is still stout, but the offense will keep this team down. Cincinnati has been a solid team the last few years and now the skill position talent is healthy. Other than the Patriots and Packers this Cincinnati team looks to be as complete as any. With Seattle traveling off a short week we will back the host. PLAY CINCINNATI
|
10-10-15 |
UL-Monroe +9.5 v. Tulsa |
|
24-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 21 m |
Show
|
365 UL Monroe at Tulsa The Warhawks have been pounded on the ground so far this season but lets take a closer look at the opposition. This team has faced Georgia, Alabama and Georgia Southern, all ground based systems that are among the best running teams in the country. ULM will be facing a different type of opponent this week in Tulsa and we can see Todd Berry’s team playing them tooth and nail. Tulsa is making great strides in the first season with Philip Montgomery at the helm. His faced paced offense has really looked impressive in the early going. The only problem is that the Golden Hurricane defense is back on the field regularly with limited rest. It shows as Tulsa has permitted 563, 390, 773 and 638 yards. The 390 game was against a one dimensional New Mexico squad. This Tulsa team is much improved but you simply can’t lay this type of number with such a poor defense. PLAY UL MONROE
|
10-10-15 |
Washington State +17 v. Oregon |
Top |
45-38 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 47 m |
Show
|
359 Washington State at Oregon We all know how dominant the Oregon Ducks have been the past few seasons. But there is one team that has had its number when it comes to covering the spread, the Washington State Cougars. The last five seasons the Cougs have cashed by margins of 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2, 20 and 15 1/2 points. In what looks to be a down year for Oregon we can see the Cougars taking this one to the wire. When it comes to explosive plays of 20 yards or better against FBS competition Washington State has produced 15 while allowing 14. The Oregon Ducks are at 20 for and 21 against. This team which has lived in the national spotlight has allowed more explosive plays than they themselves earned. Considering that the Ducks were a combined 56 1/2 point favorites in those games tells us that this is a highly overrated squad. We were on Oregon last week against Colorado and while it was a double digit cover we left feeling we may have been a bit lucky. Luck won’t be a factor here as this game will be much closer than the current line suggests. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE
|
10-10-15 |
Connecticut +3 v. Central Florida |
|
40-13 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 46 m |
Show
|
381 Connecticut at Central Florida Wrong team favored here as the Huskies have clearly shown more this season than the Golden Knights. Despite being significant dogs in 3 of 4 FBS contests the Huskies have produced more explosive plays than it allowed. The UConn defense held every opponent under 350 yards until tiring late in the BYU altitude last Saturday. After facing Missouri and BYU on the road this club won’t be intimidated in Orlando. Central Florida has been a huge disappointment this year. Coming in with an 0-5 record with home losses to FIU and Furman. The Knights not only lost on the scoreboard to all five opponents but were also out gained. As opposed to UConn, the Golden Knights have permitted 11 more explosive plays of 20 yards or better than it produced. Wouldn’t surprise us if Connecticut goes off the favorite here. PLAY CONNECTICUT
|
10-10-15 |
UMass v. Bowling Green -13 |
Top |
38-62 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 48 m |
Show
|
348 Massachusetts at Bowling Green We were higher on UMass than just about anybody coming into the season but we have lessened our enthusiasm. We really think Frohnapfel is a quality signal caller but this team hasn’t put it all together to be the money maker we expected. The team crushed FIU last week while stepping down in class but this defense hasn’t shown any improvement. What’s more troubling is that the Minutemen have only produced one 80 yard or longer drive this season, giving up six in the meantime. This offense should have been explosive but hasn’t lived up to expectations. Bowling Green has simply moved the ball against every opponent on the schedule. Putting up 536 yards or better against everyone. That includes a team from the SEC and two from the Big 10, conferences known for playing quality defense. As opposed to the Minutemen the Falcons already have 12 drives of 80 yards or longer while allowing only three. In a game where big plays will set the tone we will ride the hot handed Falcons as they continue to put up big numbers. PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
10-04-15 |
NY Giants +6 v. Buffalo Bills |
|
24-10 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 0 m |
Show
|
259 NY Giants at Buffalo Giants are a better team than its record. This is a club that could easily be 3-0 with some better decisions. The division is up for grabs and this team needs a win here badly. We feel the line here is a bit inflated based on how well the Bills played against huge rival Miami last week.But as we pointed out a week ago. Teams heading off to London the following week are now 1-7 ATS the week before the trip. So while Miami played really bad it wasn’t unexpected. Buffalo is a team we want in the underdog role, not as a sizable favorite.PLAY NY GIANTS
|
10-03-15 |
Oregon -7.5 v. Colorado |
|
41-24 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 44 m |
Show
|
175 Oregon at Colorado What an overreaction from last week’s Duck soup. Sure Oregon has now lost two games this year and are out of the National Championship picture, but this is still an excellent program. The last four years in this series the Ducks were favored by 32 1/2, 39, 47 and 31 points. Oregon outscored Colorado by a combined 216 to 42. The last time Oregon played on the road it took Michigan State to the wire in a game it very easily could have won. Btw, the Spartans are one of the top ranked teams in the nation. The Ducks have only permitted one drive of over 80 yards all season while producing five themselves. Talk about stepping up in class. The Buffalos have played Colorado State, UMass, Hawaii and Nichols State. Despite the lack of quality opposition, Colorado has allowed three more explosive plays than accomplishing themselves. This team just doesn’t have the speed to keep up with this wounded duck who has a huge chip on its shoulder. PLAY OREGON
|
10-03-15 |
Fresno State v. San Diego State -8 |
|
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 2 m |
Show
|
218 Fresno State at San Diego State There have been some really strange line moves early in the week and this one tops the cake. Why would anyone want any part of this Fresno State squad who has been downright terrible to open the season. The team has used three quarterbacks with not a single one looking competent. The defense hasn’t impressed at all and shows no signs of getting better. San Diego State is the class of this division, and after facing quality foes such as California and Penn State on the road, they can now take out some frustrations. Five straight winning seasons for the Aztecs who are looking at triple revenge against the Bulldogs here. We were considering San Diego State when the opening line of 11 popped up. We love the Aztecs at this lesser number. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
10-03-15 |
UNLV v. Nevada -6.5 |
Top |
23-17 |
Loss |
-106 |
50 h 46 m |
Show
|
216 UNLV at Nevada Wow, what an overreaction from one week ago. The Rebels pounded an FCS squad 80-8, and now money is pouring in on the Rebels and their first year coach hired straight from high school. We have to admit that the effort from the players this season is night and day from previous editions, but it’s not like the recruiting has made great strides in one summer. This is still a program with 2 win seasons in four of the last five years. UNLV had a magical year in 2013 when the team went 7-6 and went bowling. In that year the Rebels beat the Wolf Pack. In the last four years this program didn’t go bowling Nevada won by margins of 22, 5, 37 and 18 points. We were really impressed with the Wolf Pack last week. Going to Buffalo after playing at Texas A&M and having hated in-state rival UNLV on deck. Many thought it was a throwaway game for the Wolf Pack, but that wasn’t the case. Nevada not only played tough but won outright in what could have been a meaningless game. This is a program that has gone bowling in 5 of the last 6 years and has only one losing campaign in the last decade, the 2013 team who lost to the Rebels. Nevada is the better team and this line has overcompensated off one FCS win for UNLV. PLAY NEVADA
|
10-03-15 |
Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan +3 |
Top |
19-29 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 53 m |
Show
|
170 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan Third straight road game here for the Huskies after traveling to Ohio state and Boston College. In those two games Northern produced 190 and 153 yards against two elite defenses. While they will step down in class here this isn’t your traditional offensive powerhouse. The Huskies are 32-1 against the rest of the MAC but just 1-2 against Central Michigan. Central hasn’t won an FBS game this season but faced Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State. The combined yardage in those three games was 1203 to 1069 with the underdog Chippewas coming out ahead. Central lost the turnover battle in all three of those games. The Chippewas had three more explosive plays in those games than it allowed, pretty impressive for what was considered a middle of the road MAC school. While Northern has been excellent on the road and does have revenge here we will back the under the radar home dog. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN
|
10-03-15 |
Kansas +17 v. Iowa State |
|
13-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 47 m |
Show
|
125 Kansas at Iowa State The Jayhawks have dropped something like 30 straight on the road, but looking over the last 2+ seasons we see Kansas with 6 total wins and Iowa State with the same number of victories. The line the last three seasons in this series has been 3, 4 1/2 and 4 1/2. So why the big discrepancy this season? Kansas is what we thought they were, the likely worst team in a power five conference. Not sure Iowa State has improved enough to justify the double digit pointspread movement. Sure the Cyclones are in revenge for a 34-14 Kansas victory a year ago, but this team has been in revenge virtually every game as of late. Iowa State out gained Toledo in an overtime loss two weeks ago before the bye. But we feel the Rockets are one of the most overrated teams in the country. Paul Rhodes needs this win badly, but we can’t see that large a difference between these two programs. Iowa State hasn’t been a double digit favorite in Big 12 action since 2011. PLAY KANSAS
|
10-03-15 |
Houston v. Tulsa OVER 79.5 |
|
38-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
46 h 36 m |
Show
|
149 Houston at Tulsa Both these teams want to play fast under new head coaches. Houston is producing 82, 92 and 78 plays, while Tulsa is producing 86, 89 and 91 plays. Former Ohio State OC Herman has taken over the offense at Houston and you can see how his absence has affected the Buckeyes. While the Houston defense isn’t bad the Golden Hurricane will still find success. In three games for Tulsa there have been 42 explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Tulsa has produced four drives of 80 yards or longer. So this team can sustain a drive and has big play ability. Lots of plays and fast possessions point to a high scoring matchup. PLAY OVER
|
10-03-15 |
South Carolina v. Missouri -2.5 |
|
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 30 m |
Show
|
188 South Carolina at Missouri This is the worst South Carolina team Steve Spurrier has fielded since taking over the reigns in Columbia 11 years ago. There have been many references the last few years about his love of alcohol and golf interfering with his coaching ability. Even if those rumors are untrue it’s been a quick slide for the Gamecocks after three straight 11 win teams ending in 2013. In measuring explosive plays which are of 20 yards or more the Gamecocks have allowed 20 while producing 16. Not a quality stat for a team that has been favored in 3 of 4 games. But what is more staggering is when you look at sustained drives of 80 yards or more. South Carolina has permitted seven such drives thus far without a single 80 yards or better drive of its own. That tells you the real problem for the Gamecocks, no skill position talent. Missouri is without QB Mauk who was suspended, but that just gives us extra value this week as he has underperformed this season. The Tigers lost last week at Kentucky and Gary Pinkel is 13-3 the last 4+ years ATS off a loss. Off 11 and 12 win seasons the last two years we will back the better team at home. PLAY MISSOURI
|
10-01-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +6.5 |
|
23-34 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
104 Miami Florida at Cincinnati The Hurricanes are getting way too much credit in this one as we had this game lined less than a field goal. In two games against FBS opposition this team has a whopping turnover margin of +7. When looking at drives of 80 yards or more Miami has one while allowing the opposition four. Last year Miami won just once outside of the state of Florida and this is the first game this season in which they do so this year. As opposed to the fortunate Hurricanes the Bearcats have lost the turnover battle by a whopping margin of 10 on the season vs FBS squads. Despite that fact this team has only been outscored by 13 points in those games. While the Cincy defense isn’t anything to write home about this offense produced 557, 545 and 752 yards the past three games. The injury to Gunner Kiel hasn’t affected this squad who has averaged over 32 points per game for each of the last four seasons. The Bearcats are 8-4 ATS as home dogs covering the past decade, we look for an outright victory.PLAY CINCINNATI
|
09-27-15 |
Atlanta Falcons v. Dallas Cowboys +2 |
Top |
39-28 |
Loss |
-105 |
97 h 31 m |
Show
|
480 Atlanta at Dallas Now that Tony Romo is hurt again the season is about to come apart for the Cowboys. At least that’s what the press would like you to believe. Because of the injury the Cowboys are now home underdogs in this matchup with the Atlanta Falcons. We always like to back a team the game after a key player is hurt as the squad knows it must be at peak performance to win. While Dallas doesn’t have a normal home field value we will get top efforts from the Cowboys this week. Keep in mind Dallas is 2-0, out gaining the opposition by 280 yards despite a -2 turnover margin. This club is losing the turnover battle and still finding ways to win. Dallas is doing what is does best and that is winning the time of possession by 17:40 per game. The offensive line is what gives the Cowboys a big edge and it’s been reinforced by DeMarco Murray and his major struggles in Philadelphia. Atlanta has a positive turnover margin but has only out gained the opposition by a total of 10 yards. Defensively Atlanta has surrendered 272 more yards than the Cowboys. In a rare scheduling situation both of these teams have faced the Giants and the Eagles. With an equal strength of opponent rating the Cowboys have put up clearly better stats. With Dallas playing at home here even with a backup quarterback the host gets the money. PLAY DALLAS
|
09-26-15 |
Ball State +20 v. Northwestern |
|
19-24 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 35 m |
Show
|
397 Ball State at Northwestern The Cardinals are the type of team we like in the underdog role. A team that can run the football and shorten the game. So far this season Ball State has run for 5.5 ypc, 6.3 ypc against Texas A&M and 5.3 ypc. Ball State has 18 returning starters from a 5-7 team that actually outscored the opposition on the season. Before that the Cardinals won 19 games total the previous two years. Pete Lembo is coming off his first losing season in Muncie and the Cards are off to a 2-1 start this year. This club is at its best in this role posting a 32-13 ATS mark as a road dog heading into this season. While this is the third straight road game for the Cardinals, this line is highly inflated. Especially for a team in the Wildcats who are a better dog than favorite. Northwestern is 3-0 and nationally ranked. We want no part of teams the first week they enter the Top 25, especially with a club that has been mediocre for much of the last decade. Northwestern is 11-23 as a home favorite the last ten years, which tells you how rare this club is favored and that it’s not their preferred role. With conference action on deck with Minnesota revenge we feel the dog will give the Wildcats fits all day. PLAY BALL STATE
|
09-26-15 |
Arkansas State +7 v. Toledo |
|
7-37 |
Loss |
-106 |
51 h 2 m |
Show
|
335 Arkansas State at Toledo Did you know that despite having a perfect 2-0 record with wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, the Rockets are dead last in the FBS in yardage differential. Toledo is being out gained by a whopping 184.5 yards per contest. Worse than the likes of UNLV, New Mexico State and North Texas. That doesn’t even take into account the opening game against Stony Brook which was cancelled after the half. Toledo was struggling in that contest. So while the Rockets are 2-0 on the year we better not get too overwhelmed by that start on the scoreboard. Arkansas State doesn’t have the gaudy record after playing USC and Missouri. What it does have is GoDaddy Bowl revenge from just a few short months ago as Toledo beat the Red Wolves 63-44. This is a quality program that has produced 35 wins the past four seasons. With lowly Idaho on deck and off a Missouri State blowout victory, we like the underdogs chances on Saturday. Toledo off two Big Five victories with a trip to Ball State on deck. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE
|
09-26-15 |
UMass +29 v. Notre Dame |
|
27-62 |
Loss |
-106 |
47 h 26 m |
Show
|
365 Massachusetts at Notre Dame Little known QB Blake Frohnapfel leads an experienced offensive line with major scoring potential, as the Minutemen look to be a very strong underdog in this contest. After going to Colorado, and then facing a really strong Temple squad, this club won’t be intimidated here. UMass went to Vanderbilt and Penn State last season along with trips to Wisconsin and Kansas State in 2013. Massachusetts returns 19 starters and is always a live dog with the arm of Frohnapfel. The major reason for liking the dog here is the Notre Dame injury situation along with a major sandwich spot. The Irish are dropping like flies this season and need a break in order to get some of these starters back in the lineup. The last thing Brian Kelly wants is to be further depleted with Clemson and USC coming up on the schedule. Notre Dame played a great game a week ago after Malik Zaire went down with an injury. The team rallied behind the QB and beat a really good Georgia Tech team. That was a statement game for Notre Dame with another circled game on deck vs Clemson. Kelly and his troops know this game can be won by handing the ball off and keeping the clock moving. Get out of this game healthy and get ready for the Clemson Tigers. Throw in the fact that the Irish are 18-32 ATS as home favorites and the dog gets our full attention. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS
|
09-26-15 |
Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 59.5 |
|
30-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
47 h 17 m |
Show
|
393 Oklahoma State at Texas Texas had 52 plays in the opener vs Notre Dame and only 38 against Rice. The Longhorns put up 83 plays last week against California. With Heard taking over at QB for Texas this team put up 42 points and 44 points the past two weeks. The change at signal caller has been drastic for this squad as the total Notre Dame dominance in the opener with Swoops behind center is a distant memory. Last year both these teams struggled offensively in comparison to previous seasons. We feel both offenses are on the uptick. Oklahoma State returns eight offensive starters and QB Mason Rudolph led this team to 578 and 534 yards the past two weeks. The Cowboys are finding themselves offensively and this isn’t even close to the Texas defense that held them to just 192 yards a season ago. Texas ranks 119th this season allowing over 500 yards per game. We expect a shootout. PLAY OVER
|
09-26-15 |
Central Michigan v. Michigan State -26.5 |
Top |
10-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
69 h 36 m |
Show
|
316 Central Michigan at Michigan State Very surprised by the shortness in this line as we have two sets of power ratings supporting numbers of 35 and 38. Central Michigan has faced Oklahoma State who had struggled offensively until last week, Monmouth and Syracuse which has been very injury prone at quarterback. While it’s an in-state game the Chippewas do have Northern Illinois on deck and the Huskies have major revenge for a home field loss a year ago. The last time Central played a Top 20 team on the road it lost at Michigan by 50 points in 2013. That team is very similar to the squad John Bonamego took over this year.Michigan State is 8-3 ATS installed as a double digit favorite, and 8-2 ATS when facing opposition from the state of Michigan. The Western Michigan Broncos stayed under the number opening week here but that was the game prior to Oregon for the Spartans. With only Purdue on deck there is no lookahead for Michigan State. Last week in a post Oregon situation the Spartans were favored by 24 1/2 vs Air Force. Now the line is only slightly higher against a team we rate 8 points worse than the fly boys. Big edge here for the host.PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
|
09-24-15 |
Washington Redskins +4 v. NY Giants |
|
21-32 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 3 m |
Show
|
301 Washington at NY Giants We really like the way the Redskins are playing right now. Out gaining the opposition 722-469 while holding a time of possession edge of over 15 minutes a game. The team is outscoring the opposition by 7 points on the season despite a -2 turnover disadvantage. Washington is running the ball well which keeps the QB from having to make the big play which many times has resulted in turnovers. The Giants on the other hand are +2 in turnover margin and still or being outscored by 5 points on the season. The Giant coaching staff is terrible in close games including 1-7 ATS in games decided by a field goal or less. In a contest in this price range you need to know those numbers. New York is being out gained 838-677 through the first two games while losing the time of possession by over 8 minutes a contest. The yards allowed on the year are second worst in all the league. The Giants just don’t have the defensive ability to get the opposition off the field which is why we side with the underdog here.PLAY WASHINGTON
|
09-20-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3 |
Top |
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 56 m |
Show
|
288 Seattle at Green Bay Too many off-field distractions for the Seahawks as money matters have this team unfocused. Success brings egos and right now the players are bickering about who has gotten paid and who hasn’t. The offensive line is struggling and the defense hasn’t played nearly as well without Chancellor. Rodgers simply doesn’t throw picks at home so the Seahawks will not have its usually advantages. Playoff revenge is also in store as you know the Packers have had this game circled. PLAY GREEN BAY
|
09-20-15 |
Houston Texans +3 v. Carolina Panthers |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-101 |
24 h 38 m |
Show
|
261 Houston at Carolina Taking the points here with what we consider to be the slightly better team. Carolina is playing without Luke Kuechly which is a huge blow to that defense. RB Foster is back to practicing, if he plays at all it’s a big bonus for the dog. Houston was never in that game against the Chiefs last week. This one will be a different story. PLAY HOUSTON
|
09-20-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6 |
|
18-43 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 32 m |
Show
|
266 San Francisco at Pittsburgh Huge scheduling edge for the Steelers here as they played on Thursday while the Niners played monday night. Pittsburgh remains in the Eastern Time Zone while San Francisco travels three time zones for an early game. The Niners were considered the laughingstock of the NFL after so many players left the team via retirement or injury. Even the head coach left to go back to college ball. The talking heads were burying the Niners so this team had plenty to prove in front of a national audience. San Francisco comes back to earth here. PLAY PITTSBURGH
|
09-20-15 |
San Diego Chargers v. Cincinnati Bengals -3 |
|
19-24 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 31 m |
Show
|
276 San Diego at Cincinnati We consider the Bengals to be an elite AFC squad this year and this number is a bit cheap. The Bengals are on a 13-3-1 ATS run at home and get back two key offensive contributors this season from injury. San Diego must travel three time zones to play an early game. The Chargers lack a solid run game to help of Rivers offensively. Playoff revenge from 2013 here for the Bengals who lost on this field against these Chargers. PLAY CINCINNATI
|
09-19-15 |
SMU v. TCU OVER 66 |
|
37-56 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 13 m |
Show
|
187 SMU at TCU Over Chad Morris in his first year in Dallas has this team on the rise. The former Clemson OC has the Mustangs playing a much faster pace after this club amazingly averaged only 11.1 points per game a year ago. SMU held it’s own against Baylor and pulled away late against North Texas. The offense looks night and day different than a year ago and we have value right now playing this SMU squad over. TCU has scored 56 and 48 points the last two years against SMU. With a much faster pace from the opposition we can look for even more scoring for the Horned Frogs. But while SMU was held to a combined 17 the last two years in this series, we expect at least 20 and probably more from SMU on Saturday. TCU returned just 5 starters on the defensive line from a year ago, and we see this unit being weaker this season. Minnesota and Stephen F Austin didn’t expose TCU but a good passing game from the Mustangs certainly can. This one will be a shootout as the dog will never quit trying to get into the end zone. PLAY OVER
|
09-19-15 |
Stanford +10 v. USC |
|
41-31 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 9 m |
Show
|
195 Stanford at USC We make lines on every game in college football before the start of the season. Our preseason line on this game was USC favored by 4. Now we are catching many more points based on what we have seen the first two weeks of the season. While we can see the line being slightly higher we feel this is a major overreaction. The last five meetings in this series have been decided by margins of 3, 3, 7, 8 in triple overtime and 2. The spreads have been 3, 3, 8, 7 and 10. So regardless of how either one of these teams has been viewed by the betting public the results all point to one outcome. These programs are on equal footing, which makes this line out of whack. Stanford lost to what we feel is a pretty good Northwestern team who had a big time zone advantage. This squad returns nine offensive starters from a team that has won 42 games the past four years under David Shaw. USC is taking a major step up in opposition here after taking on Arkansas State and Idaho the first two weeks. Keep in mind although USC beat Stanford 13-10 last year the Cardinal was the better team on the field. Many missed opportunities and poor red zone play cost Stanford that game. The last three meetings have resulted in Trojans points scored of 13, 20 and 14. Tough to lay this number when you have struggled to score against this opponent. PLAY STANFORD
|
09-19-15 |
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -11.5 |
|
35-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
53 h 25 m |
Show
|
170 Texas Tech at Arkansas What do you know, Texas Tech has looked lights out against Sam Houston State and UTEP. That’s typical Red Raiders football as this team piles on the points against weak opposition but struggles mightily against the big boys. This team is 8-15 as a road underdog and 16-9 at a road favorite. Those stats cover the past ten years and three head coaches. Texas Tech is an easy team to handicap. Play on them against teams that lack depth and play against them when facing physical squads. Bret Bielema took his Wisconsin experience to Fayetteville a couple years ago and installed a massive offensive line and a major running game. This year he’s adding a passing attack that can put him equal to or surpass the Alabama Crimson Tide. Last week facing a MAC team his thought process had to be that it was an ideal squad to open up the passing game against. So instead of running the ball down the throats of a smaller team Bielema made the mistake of passing on a team from a passing conference. That mistake cost the Razorbacks the game and gives us value here. PLAY ARKANSAS
|
09-19-15 |
Auburn +7 v. LSU |
|
21-45 |
Loss |
-105 |
50 h 51 m |
Show
|
149 Auburn at LSU Just a couple weeks ago Auburn was considered a major national title contender. Now after having to go to overtime to beat Jacksonville State this team is being left for dead. Classic sandwich situation for the Tigers last week off a nationally televised game against Louisville and LSU this week. Keep in mind that Jacksonville State is a powerhouse in the FCS and would be favored over many FBS squads. This is a good team that Auburn obviously took for granted. Now with something to prove we expect a huge effort from the team that clobbered LSU 41-7 a year ago. Sure LSU has embarrassing revenge, but this game not being played at night in the Bayou which is a missed opportunity for LSU. It’s win percentage is significantly better in night games as opposed to afternoon affairs. LSU held on against what we feel is a weaker Mississippi State team last week and Les Miles is just 25-36 ATS as a home favorite in his tenure in Baton Rouge. Auburn has cashed the last three meetings and we feel this line is at least a field goal too high. PLAY AUBURN
|
09-19-15 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma State -24.5 |
Top |
14-69 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 4 m |
Show
|
156 UTSA at Oklahoma State The Roadrunners went from being the most veteran team in college football to the youngest this year. Just five returning starters for UTSA. We went against this team a week ago because we weren’t buying into the competitive game against Arizona in the opener. Just as we predicted, the Kansas State Wildcats wore down this lack of quality depth squad, and won and covered for our backers. Now we have a team who has only been in the FBS for five years playing three straight games against power five conferences. Oklahoma State has underperformed to start the season, failing to cover by double digits against Central Michigan and Central Arkansas. So we have a motivated favorite with clear skill position edges, taking on a team that they beat by 30 and 21 points each of the last two years. With upcoming opponents Texas and Kansas State looking down from previous years the Roadrunners get the full attention of the Cowboys here. Under Mike Gundy the Cowboys are 28-15 ATS as home favorites. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE
|
09-19-15 |
Illinois +9.5 v. North Carolina |
|
14-48 |
Loss |
-115 |
46 h 29 m |
Show
|
125 Illinois at North Carolina The coaching change at Illinois right before the season has turned around a recently weak program and made the team believers. Tim Beckman was disliked by his players to put it mildly and since his firing the team has played amazing football. Much of this line is attributed to the terrible Illini road play under Beckman. But with renewed vigor we can see this team turning that negative around. North Carolina is a talented offensive team and the change at defensive coordinator is sure to be a plus. But we want no part of the Tar Heels laying points as they have been nothing special out of conference. This team looked good in the opener against South Carolina, but we aren’t high at all on the Gamecocks this season. Despite the high number of returning starters this Tar Heels team is overrated in our opinion. Too many points to lay into a confident team. PLAY ILLINOIS
|
09-19-15 |
Tulsa +31 v. Oklahoma |
|
38-52 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 26 m |
Show
|
131 Tulsa at Oklahoma Golden Hurricane new head coach Philip Montgomery likes to play fast and his team so far has bought into the quicker pace. He was the offensive coordinator at Baylor and before that worked on that side of the ball at Houston. He knows how to put points on the board quickly which is what makes Tulsa a dangerous dog. Oklahoma is off what Bob Stoops called possibly his most satisfying victory in his career. Considering he has been at Oklahoma 17 years shows just how big that comeback overtime win was last week at Tennessee. He despises the SEC and was really pointing towards that game. Now facing a major letdown the Sooners are laying a huge number to a team it beat by 45 and 31 points the past two years. With an off week on deck do you really think these players are focused on Tulsa? Major letdown situation for the Sooners here against a live dog that can put points on the board. PLAY TULSA
|
09-13-15 |
Tennessee Titans +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|
42-14 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 43 m |
Show
|
481 Tennessee at Tampa Bay Battle of rookie quarterbacks puts us squarely on the visitor here. Tennessee defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is known for giving rookie signal callers fits. Winston failed to throw a touchdown pass in the preseason and he was very erratic last year at Florida State. Tampa Bay is having offensive line problems right now which means the rookie will be under the gun all night. Tennessee head coach Whisenhunt is known for his success with young quarterbacks so we trust the new Titans signal caller a bit more here. In a battle of the two worst teams record wise from the previous year we will gladly take the points as Tampa failed to win a game at home last season. PLAY TENNESSEE
|
09-13-15 |
Cleveland Browns v. NY Jets -3 |
Top |
10-31 |
Win
|
100 |
97 h 56 m |
Show
|
468 Cleveland at NY Jets Both teams have solid defenses in which to lean on in the early going as the offenses lag behind. But while the Jets have improved offensively and will only get better, the Browns could be one of the most inept offensive teams in league history. Led by a QB that posted a 1-10 record for Tampa Bay last year as a starter, and a listing of no names at the skill positions. The Browns don’t have a breakaway player anywhere at wide receiver or running back and the line can only do so much to keep the quarterback upright. The Jets have two of the best corners in all of football and they will have a big advantage against these Cleveland wideouts. The Jets bolstered an already solid defense in the offseason and the offense is much better than a year ago. Fitzpatrick has his flaws but with a defense like what he has now he doesn’t need to make plays to keep his team in the game. We were very surprised to see this line open where it has considering the average home field value in the NFL is roughly the same as this line. So the betting public is telling us on a neutral field this teams would be even. But let’s look at the season win numbers for both these squads. The Jets are listed at 7.5 while the Browns are at 6.0. While we do feel Cleveland is in a tougher division, the season win numbers clearly point to the Jets being the better team. We firmly agree which is why we are making the Jets our Best Bet for the opening week of the NFL season.PLAY NEW YORK JETS
|
09-12-15 |
Pittsburgh v. Akron +12 |
Top |
24-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
31 h 14 m |
Show
|
368 Pittsburgh at Akron A year ago the Zips shocked Pitt on the road. A huge win for the Akron program and an embarrassment for the Pitt faithful. So the first thing many will say about this contest is Pittsburgh revenge. While that’s certainly true we look at it another way. Akron gained a great amount of confidence with that victory and knows they can play with the Panthers. Especially considering Pitt is without it’s best offensive player at running back. Pitt struggled with Youngstown State last week and we really like that Penguins squad. Akron despite the score at Oklahoma really shut down the Sooners running game. The Zips brought in Power Five Conference transfers along the defensive line and the team is much better against the run. With strength on strength in the trenches we will gladly take the double digits at home with an Akron squad playing a huge out of conference opponent. PLAY AKRON
|