Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-02-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -7.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Broncos @ Chargers 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Chargers -7.5 (10*) These teams met just 5 weeks in Denver and the Broncos walked away with an easy 28-10 win. Yet, the oddsmakers weren’t deterred by that result based in this current point-spread. Additionally, Denver is coming off a pir of deflating losses 15-10 versus Cleveland and 17-13 to Las Vegas. That really put a dent into their postseason hopes and their overall confidence level. Los Angeles is also coming off losses to Houston 41-29 as a 13.0-point road favorite and in overtime to Kansas City. As a result, the Chargers are on the outside of the playoff bubble looking in with an 8-7 record. The Chargers will be facing a Denver team which has struggled to score at times this season. As a matter of fact, Denver has scored 13 points or fewer in 6 of their last 12 games. That hasn’t been the Chargers problem of late. During their last 4 outings, Los Angeles has averaged 33.8 points scored and 407.8 yards gained per game. NFL betting history show that teams like the Chargers in this exact situation have passed the test with flying colors. Any division favorite of 4.5 or greater that’s playing with revenge, and they’re coming off a non-division straight up favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 16-0 ATS since 1985. Furthermore, they won those contests by an enormous 20.3 points per game and their average line was -7.2. Bet the Chargers minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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01-01-22 | Utah +4 v. Ohio State | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
Utah vs. Ohio State 5:00 PM ET Game# 281-282 Play On: Utah +4.0 (10*) Ohio State had the much higher aspirations this season of winning a national championship compared to Utah. Nevertheless, they failed to even reach the Big 10 Championship Game and were dominated in a 42-27 loss to Michigan during their regular season finale. The Buckeyes will be missing their top 2 wide receivers in this contest who combined to score 25 touchdowns and amass just shy of 2000 receiving yards this season. Utah has won its first ever PAC-12 Championship in football and will be making their Rose Bowl debut. There’s no doubt in my mind they’ll have an emotional edge in this game as a result. Not to mention, Utah enters this contest on a 6-game win streak which included a pair of blowout wins over #15 Oregon. All 3 Utah losses this season have come by single-digit margins. Bet Utah plus the points for my “Bowl Game of the Year”. |
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12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 101 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
Georgia vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Georgia -7.5 (10*) Michigan has been a nice story this season in a year that head coach Jim Harbaugh entered on the proverbial hot seat. The former Wolverines quarterback has his team peaking at the right time. Here’s where the issue for me comes in with regards to backing Michigan. The Wolverines have run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays this season and they’ll be facing a Georgia defense which allows just 82.2 rushing yards per game. The Bulldogs stop units is also tied for 4th nationally with 42 sacks. Georgia was embarrassed in their 41-24 SEC Championship Game loss to Alabama. Nevertheless, I’m willing to give them a pass since win or lose they 100% knew a college football playoff invitation awaited. Georgia was a 6.0-point favorite in that defeat. The good news, Georgia is 4-0 SU&ATS this season immediately following a game in which they failed to cover. They won those 4 contests by a substantial average of 39.5 points per game. The Alabama game was the first time all season that Georgia allowed more than 17 points. The Bulldogs defense has received much acclaim this season and rightfully so. But don’t sleep on the Georgia offense which scored 41 points or more in 4 of their last 5 and collected 449 yards or greater on each occasion. Bet Georgia minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
Michigan State vs. Pittsburgh 7:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Pittsburgh +3.5 (10*) Both teams will be without their top offensive player. Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett is a potential 1st round draft choice who opted out for risk of injury. All Picket did this season was throw for 4319 yards and 42 touchdowns. Michigan State will be without star running back Kenneth Walker III. Walker rushed for 1646 yards and 18 touchdowns this season while averaging a lofty 6.2 yards per carry. It comes down to this for me when handicapping this game. Which difference can make the difference between winning and losing? The answer to this then becomes simple. I unequivocally trust Pitt’s defense more than that of today’s opponent. Pitt is #40 in total defense, #6 in rush defense, and #2 in sacks nationally. Conversely, Michigan State is #117 out of 130 college football FBS teams in total defense and dead last in pass yards allowed. Bet Pittsburgh plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-29-21 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
Iowa State vs. Clemson 5:45 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Iowa State +2.5 (10*) #19 Clemson (9-3) and enters this Cheez-It Bowl on a 5-game win streak. Yet, they’re less than a field goal favorite versus unranked Iowa State (7-5). That’s all I need to know and especially considering that Iowa State opened as a favorite in this matchup. Iowa State will be without star running back Breece Hall who opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. However, they still have 4-year starting quarterback Brock Purdy who will be playing his final game in a Cyclones uniform. Bet on Iowa State plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
Green Bay @ Baltimore 4:25 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Baltimore +7.0 I like the Ravens with or without Lamar Jackson. I assume at +7.0 it will be Tyler Huntley at quarterback. If Lamar gets the green light and get medical clearance on his injured ankle, then we aren’t going to be getting 7.0 points it will be more like 3.5 or 4.0 and that’s still fine. Tyler Huntley has accounted himself well when called upon this season. He was the starter in place of the injured Jackson at Chicago when the Ravens walked away with a 16-13 win. Last week, he just came up short of rallying Baltimore from a 24-6 halftime deficit at Cleveland, but the Ravens fell 24-22. Baltimore has gone 4-0 in non-division home games this season which includes wins Kansas City (10-3), LA Chargers (8-5), Indianapolis (7-6), and the best 6-7 team in years the Minnesota Vikings. Baltimore has gone 8-0 SU&ATS during the last 4 weeks of regular season action over the last 2 years and won by a decisive margin of 17.8 points per game. Additionally, since 2019, Baltimore is a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog and won by an average of 12.0 points per game. All 3 losses by Green Bay this season were sustained away from Lambeau Field. They also escaped with narrow road wins by 3 in overtime versus Cincinnati, by 3 over Arizona, and 2 against San Francisco. It’s inevitable that Green Bay will win the NFC North and that may transpire as soon as the Vikings and Bears Monday night game goes final. I just firmly believe that a Jim Harbaugh coached Ravens team will be difficult for Green Bay to pull away from regardless of the adversity they may be facing. Bet Baltimore plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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12-18-21 | Oregon State -7 v. Utah State | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
Oregon State @ Utah State 7:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oregon State -7.0 (10*) Utah State crushed San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game 46-13 in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. The Aggies enter this Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl having won 7 of their last 8 yet find themselves as a touchdown underdog versus a 7-5 Oregon State team. This is one of those situations where I trust the oddsmakers ability to set an accurate line more than what may appear to be obvious underdog betting value. As opposed to most Power 5 Conference teams playing opponents from the Group of 6 Conferences, Oregon State is delighted to be playing in a bowl game and will be plenty motivated. Especially when considering that Oregon State went a dismal 10-32 during the previous 4 seasons. Bet Oregon State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina vs. Northern Illinois 6:00 PM ET Game# 203-204 Play On: Coastal Carolina -10.5 (10*) Northern Illinois is the MAC Champion that comes into this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando Florida with a 9-4 record. However, they allowed 40 points or more in each of their 4 losses and were outgained by an average of 26.1 yards per game. Conversely, Coastal Carolina averaged 40.4 points scored per game and outgained their opponents by an average of 166.3 yards per contest. They will be facing a Northern Illinois defense that’s allowed 32.7 points per game this season. Since the start of last season, Coastal Carolina has gone a dominating 8-0 SU&ATS when facing an opponent that allows 31.0 or more points per game and they won by a decisive margin of 20.7 points per contest. Lastly, although Coastal Carolina didn’t reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game despite an outstanding 10-2 record, their 2 losses came by just a combined 5 points. They were that close to going undefeated. Bet Coastal Carolina minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-14-21 | Alabama v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 78-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Alabama @ Memphis 9:00 PM ET Game# 633-634 Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*) This game has trap written all over it. We have #6 Alabama coming off huge wins in their last 2 outings over #5 Gonzaga and #14 Houston who both were Final Four Teams last April. Then there’s Memphis who’s gone 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 games after starting the season 5-0 and being nationally ranked. Yet, Alabama is a short favorite in this spot and would seem to be an obvious choice for novice bettors. Well, I’m not a novice and rarely does obvious choices in sports betting appeal to me. Bet Memphis plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-12-21 | Raiders v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 9-48 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Raiders @ Chiefs 1:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Chiefs -9.5 (10*) After starting the season 5-2, the Raiders have gone on to lose 4 of its last 5 games. Las Vegas scored 16 points or fewer in all 4 of those defeats. Kansas City enters this week on a 5-game win streak in addition to covering each of its last 3. It’s the Chiefs defense and not their offense that has been the catalyst throughout those 5 Kansas City wins. Furthermore, and since 2019, the Chiefs are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in their previous 2 contests while winning by an average of 15.3 points per game. Lastly, Kansas City walloped the Raiders during their earlier season meeting in Las Vegas by a final score of 41-14. The Chiefs had a huge total offense yards edge of 516-299. Bet the Chiefs minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-11-21 | Arizona v. Illinois +3 | Top | 83-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Arizona @ Illinois 5:00 PM ET Game# 671-672 Play On: Illinois +3.0 (10*) This line opened with #11 Arizona (8-0) being a 1.0-point favorite and now it’s -3.0 against unranked Illinois (7-2). Public betting has surely been influenced by Arizona not only being 8-0 but 7-1 ATS as well. Conversely, Illinois started the season 2-2 but has reeled off 5 straight wins since. They covered each of their previous 3 versus Notre Dame, Rutgers, and at Iowa. During their current 5-game win streak Illinois has averaged a robust 84.2 points scored per game, shot 51.6%, and converted on a superb 41.5% of its 3-point attempts. Illinois also possesses an outstanding +14 rebound per game margin. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Illinois is 31-5 at home and has only been an underdog once. Bet Illinois plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-08-21 | Michigan State -7 v. Minnesota | Top | 75-67 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Michigan State @ Minnesota 9:00 PM ET Game# 703-704 Play On: Michigan State -7.0 (10*) Minnesota enters this contest with an unblemished 7-0 record. Yet, they received no votes in the latest college basketball AP Poll and for good reason in my opinion. They haven’t really beat anyone of note. The Golden Gophers will be playing its first game this season against a ranked opponent. The public will surely be enticed to take an unbeaten sizable home underdog like Minnesota against a 2-loss opponent. I on the other hand, look at this contest from a contrarian betting viewpoint. #19 Michigan State is 6-2 with their only losses coming to #2 Baylor and #9 Kansas in their season opener. They own a win on a neutral floor over #15 Connecticut and another coming at home by 9 over Louisville. The Spartans are unequivocally more battle tested of the 2 teams in this matchup and it will pay dividends this evening. Not to mention, they’ll be out to revenge an embarrassing 25-point loss at Minnesota last season. Bet Michigan State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
New England @ Buffalo 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (-122) (10*) New England has gone 6-0 SU&ATS in their last 6 games and enters this contest the hottest team in the NFL. Additionally, the Patriots have gone 5-0 on the road this season. Yet, here they are as a road underdog versus a Bills team that’s just 3-3 in their last 6 games. Like I said on many occasions, it’s rarely that east when it comes to sports betting and tonight’s game will be a prime example of such. It also must be noted, 4 of the 5 road wins by New England have come over teams that currently have a losing record in the Jets (3-9), Texans (2-10), Panthers (5-7), and Falcons (5-7). The lone exception was their win at the Chargers (7-5). New England is coming off a 36-13 home win over Tennessee last Sunday. However, that final score is a bit deceiving since they only were able to Buffalo is coming off a 31-6 blowout win at New Orleans in a game they held the Saints to a mere 146 passing yards. Since 2019, Buffalo is 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 150 or fewer passing yards and includes 4-0 SU&ATS (+16.2 PPG) at home. Furthermore, since 2019, Buffalo is 5-0 SU at home following a game in which they allowed 14 points or fewer and they won by an average of 13.8 points per contest. Kudos to the New England Patriots and future Hall of Fame head coach Bill Belichick for the masterful job he’s done so far this season. Nonetheless, Buffalo is the better team in this matchup and they’ll make a huge statement tonight to fulfill that statement. Bet Buffalo minus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
Denver @ Kansas City 8:20 ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Kansas City -9.5 (10*) The public has jumped all over Denver to cover this contest as of this writing. Nonetheless, I’m here to tell you they’re dead wrong. Yes, I know the Chiefs have been a terrible play on as a home favorite this season and last. I also know Denver is coming off an impressive 28-13 home win over the Chargers and recently blew out Dallas in Arlington. It doesn’t matter, because I don’t see this as a favorable betting situation for the sizable road underdog. The Chiefs seemed to sleepwalk through the first half of the season and frankly looked uninspired. However, Kansas City has recently caught fire and enter this week on a 4-game win streak. The most encouraging part of that successful run was the play of their defensive unit. The Chiefs have allowed an average of 11.7 points and 294.0 yards per game while also forcing 8 turnovers. Furthermore, they’ve owned the Broncos in recent seasons while going 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS against them. Lastly, Kansas City is just 1.0 game ahead of Denver in the standings, yet they are more than a touchdown favorite. It sure feels like the sportsbooks are baiting to take the road underdog. Thanks, but no thanks. Bet on Kansas City minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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12-04-21 | Iowa v. Michigan -10.5 | Top | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
Iowa vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Michigan -10.5 (10*) Give a lot of credit to Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and his staff for getting Iowa to the Big 12 Championship game despite some glaring offensive weaknesses. Case in point, the Hawkeyes averaged just 20.7 points per game in their final 7 Big 10 Conference games. Unquestionably the Hawkeyes defense has been the catalyst to a successful 10-2 regular season campaign. Nonetheless, Michigan’s defense has been superb as well. The Wolverines are #14 nationally in total defense and #8 in scoring while allowing only 17.2 points per contest. Conversely, Iowa is 123rd out of 130 Division 1 teams in total offense at only 299.3 yards per game. The defenses comparisons are a wash since both units are elite. The telling difference in us covering this spread will be Michigan’s offense which is #20 nationally in total yards. The Wolverines offense is especially difficult to defend since their yards gained between run and pass are almost identical. Bet Michigan minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-30-21 | Duke v. Ohio State +2.5 | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Duke @ Ohio State 9:30 PM ET Game# 637-638 Play On: Ohio State +2.5 (10*) Duke is coming off a huge win over then #1 Gonzaga which catapulted them to the top spot in the latest AP Poll. Now thy find themselves as a short favorite on the road against an unranked Ohio State team that’s already suffered 2 losses this season. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the top ranked Duke Blue Devils. I am declining that invitation. Bet Ohio State plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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11-25-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Saints | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
Buffalo @ New Orleans 8:20 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Buffalo -5.5 (10*) Buffalo will look to rebound from a humiliating and humbling 41-15 home blowout loss to the Colts. However, the Bills have gone 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and win by a decisive margin of 26.0 points per game. So before you start digging a grave for the Bills you should definitely reconsider. Since 2019, Buffalo has gone 15-6 SU and 14-6-1 ATS during regular season away games under current head coach Sean McDermott. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite of 7.0 or less and after Game 6 of the season with an average victory margin of 25.0 points per game. New Orleans has been a profitable home underdog under head coach Sean Payton. But most of those occurrences happened with future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees under center and not this year’s backup Trevor Simien. The Saints may also be without star running back Alvin Kamara who is recovering from a knee injury. Bet Buffalo minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-23-21 | Washington v. South Dakota State -6 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Washington vs. South Dakota State 9:30 PM ET Game# 613-614 Play On: South Dakota State -6.0 (10*) This line opened at 7.5 and is now down to 6.0. I’m of the opinion that public and not sharp money was the cause of the line move. After all, we have a poer conference team as an underdog versus an opponent from the Summit. Washington is coming off yesterday’s 77-74 upset win over George Mason in a game thy closed as a 4.5-point underdog. It was by far the Huskies best offensive performance of the year while shooting 48% and considering they shot 40% or worse in each of their first 4 contests. Washington is 3-2 and suffered resume killing home losses to Northern Illinois as a 20.0-point favorite and Wyoming. South Dakota State is a terrific mid-major team. I was on them yesterday as a 2.5-point favorite when they blew out Nevada 102-75. The Jackrabbits are 5-1 straight up and 4-1 ATS in lined games. They’ve been superb offensively to start the season which is evidenced by them averaging 90.7 points scored per game while shooting an impressive 51.4% and a spectacular 44.1% from 3-point territory. The Jackrabbits only defeat came at #10 Alabama 104-88. Despite that loss, they still shot a stellar 48.6%. This is considered a neutral site game despite being played Sioux Falls, South Dakota as part of the Crossover Classic Tournament. Bet South Dakota State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-21-21 | Bengals v. Raiders +1 | Top | 32-13 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
Cincinnati @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Las Vegas +1.0 (10*) Las Vegas is coming off a disheartening 41-13 home underdog loss to Kansas City. That loss dropped their season record to 5-4. They will be facing a Cincinnati team that’s coming off 2 straight losses in which they allowed 37.5 points and 436.0 yards per game. I looked for the Raiders to bounce back in a big way off such a disappointing effort displayed last Sunday. Since 1984, any home team with a point-spread of -2.5 to +5.0 that’s coming off a home underdog ATS loss, and they have a winning record, and they’re facing a non-division opponent, resulted in those home teams going 10-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average home team point-spread was +1.2 and they won by 9.7 points per game. Bet Las Vegas for my NFL Game of the Month. |
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11-20-21 | Oregon v. Utah -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Utah 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: Utah -3.0 (10*) The #3 Oregon Ducks find themselves as an underdog against #24 Utah and I believe for good reason. After starting 1-2, Utah has won 6 of its last 7. The Utes are also a perfect 4-0 at home where they’ve outscored their opponents by 17.0 points per game. As a matter of fact, they’re 17-1 in their last 18 played in Salt Lake City. The Utes offense has been red-hot while scoring 34 points or more in each of their last 6 games. During that stretch, the Utes have only committed 3 turnovers and gained 455 yards or more in each of those contests. The Oregon offense took a huge hit when star running back C.J. Verdell went down for the season. That will catch up to them in this spot while playing in a hostile environment. Bet Utah minus the points. |
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11-19-21 | Ohio +12 v. Kentucky | Top | 59-77 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Ohio @ Kentucky 7:00 PM ET Game# 827-838 Play On: Ohio +12.0 (10*) Kentucky is unequivocally the more talented in athletic team in this matchup. However, Ohio is an experienced and battle tested team. The Bobcats are the defending MAC Tournament champions and upset Virginia in the 1st Round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament as a #13 seed. Ohio has begun this season by going 3-0 SU&ATS. The Bobcats are averaging 12 three-point makes per game while converting on a solid 38.3% of those long-distance attempts. Look for that ability to knock down 3-point shots as a key contributing factor to us covering this game. Bet Ohio plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-13-21 | Purdue v. Ohio State -20.5 | Top | 31-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
Purdue @ Ohio State 3:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Ohio State -20.5 (10*) Purdue is coming off last week’s shocking 40-29 upset win over then #3 Michigan State. The Boilermakers also pulled off a similar type upset earlier this season over then #2 and undefeated Iowa. Nevertheless. They enter this game against the #4 Buckeyes as a 3-touchdown underdog. Purdue has been solid defensively this season. However, they will have their hands full against a balanced Ohio State offense that is averaging 44.9 points and 541.8 yards per game. The Buckeyes will make a statement in this one against #19 Purdue and solidify their position within the top 4 college football playoff spots. Bet Ohio State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
Chargers @ Eagles 4:05 PM ET Game# 467-468 Play On: Eagles +1.5 (10*) You may be surprised to know that the Chargers are dead last in the NFL at stopping the run. They rank #32 in rushing yards allowed per game (159.6) and #32 at rush yards allowed per attempt (5.1). Furthermore, over their last 3 contests, the Chargers defense has allowed 186.0 yards rushing per game and that alone was a major contributing factor to them entering this week on a 2-game losing streak. Philadelphia should be able to the run the ball with a huge amount of success, not only because their opponent is inept stopping it, but because they’ve had some degree of success in doing so up until now. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 blowout win over Detroit last week and amassed 236 rushing years. The Eagles enter this week #7 in offensive rushing yards per game (131.7) and #4 in yards per rushing attempts (5.0). Any NFL home team (Eagles) with a win percentage of .333 or better, coming off a road win by 23 points or more, versus an opponent (Chargers) coming off a home game where both teams scored 24 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or worse, resulted in those home teams going 33-2 SU (94.2%) since 1983. The straight up betting angle takes on added significance when considering the current point-spread. Bet the Eagles for a Top Play wager. |
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11-06-21 | Mississippi State v. Arkansas -4 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
Mississippi State @ Arkansas 4:00 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Arkansas -4.0 (10*) Mississippi State is coming off last Saturday’s home win over nationally ranked Kentucky. That victory was key in the Bulldogs being ranked #17 in the first college football playoff poll. Yet they’re an underdog against an Arkansas team that failed to crack the Top 25 in that very same poll, and with an identical 5-3 record as they possess. Arkansas is also coming off a bye week which is always an advantage when facing an unrested opponent at this point of the season. Both teams defenses are solid. Mississippi State has passed on an enormous 72.4% of their offensive snaps this season. Conversely, Arkansas has run the ball on 65.7% of their offensive snaps this season. However, the Razorbacks still average over 200 passing yards per game and extremely impressive 9.0 yards per pass attempt. The defenses will cancel each other out, Arkansas is unequivocally the more balanced offensive team. That will be the key to us attaining a successful cover. Bet Arkansas minus the points for my SEC Game of the Year. |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
Dallas @ Minnesota 8:20 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Minnesota -3.0 (10*) As per usual, Dallas is certain to attract a sizable amount of support from a betting perspective in this contest. They enter this stand alone nationally televised primetime game on a 5-0 SU&ATS streak while outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per contest. Yet, here they are as a 3.0-point underdog versus a 3-3 Minnesota team. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the red-hot underdog and I’m not falling for the trap. Additionally, since 2019, Dallas is 0-6 SU&ATS coming off a win and when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0 and lost by an average of 11.8 points per game. This is still a porous Dallas defense in my opinion. They’re allowing 24.3 points and 381.2 yards per game. Those defensive numbers could be even worse if not for the fact they’ve forced 14 turnovers in their first 6 games. They’ll be facing a Minnesota team that have averaged less than 1 turnover committed per game. Minnesota is one of just a few teams that can come close to matching the Cowboys offensive explosiveness. The Vikings are 5th in the NFL when it comes to total offense at 414.2 yards gained per game. The Vikings 3 losses have come against Arizona, Cleveland, and Cincinnati who have a combined record of 16-5. Furthermore, those 3 defeats came by a combined 11 points. The Vikings are much better than their 3-3 record indicates, and this current point-spread exemplifies that. Moreover, since Mike Zimmer has taken over as the Vikings head coach, Minnesota has gone an impressive 17-7 SU and 19-4 ATS at home versus non-division opponents with a win percentage of .375 or better. Bet Minnesota minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-28-21 | Knicks +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
New York @ Chicago 8:10 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: New York +1.5 (10*) The Bulls have started the season 4-0 SU&ATS and looked outstanding in doing so. Yet, they find themselves as just a tiny favorite against a 3-1 Knicks team. When examining the Bulls resume thus far, they have posted wins over Toronto (2-3), New Orleans (1-4), and Detroit (0-3) 2 times. Those opponents currently have a combined 3-10 (.231) season record. I had the Knicks as a Top Play wager in their previous game within this same point-spread parameter, and they easily covered in a 14-point win over Philadelphia. Since 1/18/2021, New York has gone an extremely profitable 20-3 SU and 20-2-1 ATS in regular season games in which their point-spread is +2.5 to -2.5, and if their opponent is coming off a win, they improved to 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS. The numbers don’t lie, and liars don’t figure. Bet on New York on any point-spread of +2.5 to -2.5 over Chicago for a Top Play wager. |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Iowa State 3:30 PM ET PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: Iowa State -7.0 (10*) The oddsmakers are begging you to take the underdog in this spot with all being considered. After all, we have #8 and undefeated Oklahoma State as a touchdown underdog against an unranked team Iowa State with a season mark of 4-2. The Cyclones have underachieved this season after being a preseason Top 10 team considered to be a legitimate college football playoff contender. However, they were knocked off at #11 Iowa (6-1) and at #20 Baylor (6-1). They won’t be a playoff team but remains a serious Big 12 title threat if the can win on Saturday. I said it before and I will say it again, Oklahoma State is a fraudulent Top 10 team. The Cowboys 6 wins this season have all come by 11 or fwer and by an average of 7.0 points per game. This is a classic example of me trusting the oddsmakers in setting an accurate line compared to pollsters ranking teams. Bet on Iowa State minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
Chargers @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Ravens -2.5 (10*) Sometimes it’s just best to keep it simple. The Ravens have been of the best running teams in the NFL over the past few seasons. This year is no different as they’re averaging a robust 148.8 yards rushing per game. That’s good for 4th best in the league. Conversely, the Chargers are dead last in rushing yards allowed per contest at 157.6. As a matter of fact, during last Sunday’s win over Cleveland, they allowed the Browns to rush for 230 yards and average a massive 6.6 yards per carry. Additionally, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has been red hot in the air during the previous 2 games after going 59-80 (73.8%) and throwing for an enormous 741 yards. The Chargers are coming off a 47-42 win over Cleveland last week. Since 1980, there has been just 28 regular season games in which a team won while allowing 40 points or greater, and only 12 of those teams were installed as an underdog in their next game. When pairing that up with Baltimore coming off a 31-25 win over Indianapolis in their previous game, and it presents a rare and unbeaten NFL betting situation which is displayed below. Any NFL regular season underdog (Chargers) that’s coming off a win in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent (Ravens) that scored 28 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those underdogs going 0-7 SU&ATS since 1980. Those 7 underdogs lost by a decisive margin of 20.1 points per game. |
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10-16-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -3.5 | Top | 32-24 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 173-174 Play On: Texas -3.5 (10*) #25 Texas (4-2) hosts #12 Oklahoma State (5-0). Despite being the lower ranked team and having 2 losses they find themselves as a favorite versus unbeaten Oklahoma State. I firmly believe that Oklahoma State is a fraudulent #12 ranked team. All 5 of their wins have come by 14 points or fewer and their average margin of victory has come by just 6.8 points per contest. That’s especially concerning when looking at their first 2 games which were home wins over Missouri State (FCS team) by 7 and Tulsa (2-4) by 5. The Longhorns only losses this year came versus #17 Arkansas and #4 Oklahoma. The 55-48 loss to Oklahoma last week was a tough pill to swallow considering they squandered a 21-point lead in that contest. On a positive note, the Texas offense has ben red-hot over their last 3 contests while averaging 50.0 points scored and 523.0 yards gained per game. By the way, Texas has gone 22-2 SU and 16-8 ATS over the last 24 season in games immediately following Oklahoma. Since 2019, the Longhorns are 5-0 SU at home following a loss and won by 19.8 points per game. Through their first 6 games Texas has a +5 turnover margin while Oklahoma State is -2. Texas is 3-0 SU&ATS at home this season with an average victory margin of 39.0 points per game. Bet Texas minus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-10-21 | Browns +2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 42-47 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Browns @ Chargers 4:05 ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Browns +2.5 (10*) The Chargers are coming off 2 straight division wins over Las Vegas last Monday night and at Kansas City before that. Now they’ll be hosting a dangerous non-division opponent in Cleveland and playing on short rest. After losing their season opener at Kansas City by a narrow 4-point margin, Cleveland has bounced back to win 3 in a row. I look for the Browns to attack the Chargers defense on the ground and be successful in doing so. After all, Cleveland is #1 in rushing offense at 177.0 yards per game. San Diego has permitted their opponents to run for 140 yards per contest which ranks 29th out of 32 NFL teams are 30th in yards permitted per carry at 5.3. Cleveland’s defense is pretty good as well. They’re #2 in total defense at 250.3 yards per game, #4 in scoring defense at 16.8 points allowed per contest and tied for 2nd in sacks with 14. |
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10-09-21 | Michigan v. Nebraska +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan @ Nebraska 7:30 PM ET Game# 381-382 Play On: Nebraska +3.0 (10*) #9 Michigan is coming off convincing 38-17 win at Wisconsin in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. That victory improved their season record to 5-0. Conversely, Nebraska is coming off a 56-7 home blowout win over Nebraska which evened their record at 3-3. Yet, the undefeated and #9 Wolverines are just a 3.0-point favorite versus an unranked team with a .500 record. It’s just never that easy and the college football betting angle listed below exemplifies just that. Play against college football favorite of 4.0 or less (Michigan) that’s playing in Game 6 and has a 5-0 record, and they’re coming off a game in which it covered by 8.5 points or more, versus an opponent (Nebraska) with a win percentage of .500 or better, resulted in those undefeated small favorites going 0-8 SU&ATS since 1985. The underdog won all 8 games straight up by an average of 8.4 points per contest. Furthermore, any college football home underdog that’s coming off a conference win by 35 points or more is 12-0 ATS since 2017. Those underdogs also won 9 of those contests straight up. Their 3 SU losses came by a combined 5 points. Bet on Nebraska plus the small number for a Top Play wager. |
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10-03-21 | Ravens v. Broncos +1 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
Ravens @ Broncos 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Denver +1.0 (10*) Baltimore is 2-1 and their wins have come by a combined 3 points. As a matter of fact, they needed an NFL record 66-yard field goal last week from Justin Tucker with no time left to pull out a 19-17 win at Detroit. The Ravens continue to be a run heavy offense that excels in that area. However, they’ll be facing a Denver defense which allowing a mere 59 rushing yards per game. Lamar Jackson has missed two practices this week while nursing a back injury. He will be facing a Denver defense that has allowed quarterbacks to complete a combined 52.4% of their passes thus far. As it is, Jackson has only completed 60.9% of his passes this season. Denver is 3-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. They have held all 3 of their opponents to 13 points or fewer and all of its wins came by 10 point or greater. The Broncos offense has been perfectly balanced through 3 games while attempting 95 runs and an identical 95 passes while gaining a more than respectable 387.3 yards per game. Bet on the Broncos for a Top Play wager. |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 487-488 Play On: Dolphins +4.0 (10*) Derek Carr is off to an extremely hot start to the season. Nevertheless, he’ll be facing what is arguable the best cornerback tandem in the NFL which is Miami’s Byron Jones and Xavien Howard. The Raiders are off to a 2-0 start. You may be surprised to know, this is a franchise that’s won 2 straight just 20 times since 2004, and they went a terrible 6-14 SU and 5-15 ATS in their following game. After winning their first 2 games as an underdog versus Baltimore and Pittsburgh, the Raiders assume the role of a chalk for a first time this season. Since the start of the 2017-2018 season, the Raiders are 0-4-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a loss. Miami is coming last Sunday’s embarrassing 35-0 home loss to Buffalo. However, it must be noted that since 2001, away teams with a point-spread of +4.5 to -4.5 who are coming off a home shutout loss have gone 8-0 ATS. Additionally, since the start of last season, Miami is 6-3 SU on the road and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog of 6.0 or less. As a matter of fact, 1 of those wins came last season at Las Vegas 26-25 as 2.5-point underdog. Yes the Dolphins will be without Tua at quarterback, but at this stage of his young career there’s not a huge drop off going to veteran Jacoby Brissett who has starting experience with both Indianapolis and New England. Bet on the Dolphins plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford +4.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
UCLA @ Stanford 6:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Stanford +4.5 (10*) After earning a huge victory over LSY 2 weeks ago, UCLA followed that up with a 40-37 loss to Fresno State as a 10.5-point home favorite. Fresno State exposed the UCLA defense last week by racking up 569 yards of total offense. The UCLA defense has been particularly vulnerable in their last 2 games with Fresno State and LSU amassing a combined 785 yards passing against them. After losing their season opener 24-7 versus Kansas State, Stanford has won their last 2 over USC and Vanderbilt on the road. On the last Saturday in September, Stanford finally will play its home opener. They will be ready. Bet on Stanford plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 39-59 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
Virginia @ North Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 185-186 Play On: North Carolina -7.5 (5*) Virginia has got off to a 2-0 start with blowout home wins over William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14. However, the competition is about to get substantially tougher in their ACC opener on Saturday at #24 North Carolina. The Tar Heels know if they hope to contend for an ACC title like many expected, they can ill afford to lose this contest after being upset at Virginia Tech in their season opener. North Carolina will also be playing with big time revenge after losing their last 4 against Virginia. On a positive note, the Tar Heels defense which has been their enigma in recent seasons allowed just 296 and 271 yards in their first 2 games. I look for an inspired effort and convincing win from North Carolina on Saturday. Bet on North Carolina minus the points. |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals +3 v. Titans | Top | 38-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
Cardinals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Cardinals +3.0 (10*) I have been eyeing this game down for a few weeks now. Arizona has not reached the postseason since the 2015-2016 campaign. Conversely, Tennessee has been a playoff participant in 3 of the last 4 years. As a matter of fact, the one time they failed to qualify during that span, they still went 9-7. Yet, Tennessee is just a 3.0 points home favorite in their season opener versus an Arizona team that hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015-2016 season NFL campaign. Moreover, if this game were being played in Arizona, the Cardinals would be the 3.0-point favorite. The last I checked, the sportsbooks and odds-makers aren’t that nice, nor will they ever be lauded for their generosity. If it smells like a rat, and looks like a rat, then it’s a rat. Additionally, this is a Tennessee team that allowed 27 points and 398 yards per game a season ago despite being a playoff team. On the other hand, Arizona averaged a more than respectable 25.6 points scored per game last year. Since 2019, the Cardinals are a perfect 4-0 ATS as a non-division away underdog and won 3 of those contests straight up. Bet on the Cardinals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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09-11-21 | Appalachian State +9 v. Miami-FL | Top | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
Appalachian State @ Miami 7:00 PM ET Game# 357-358 Play On: Appalachian State +9.0 (10*) It’s no shame to lose to Alabama like Miami did last week. However, it’s the manner the then #14 ranked Hurricanes were defeated makes them mentally fragile heading into this contest. Miami lost that contest 44-13 and were outgained in total yards by a decisive 501-264 margin. Quite frankly, Nick Saban called of the dogs or this result could’ve been much uglier for Miami. Now they’ll face a Sun Belt Conference Game team and knowing that Michigan State is up next at home. This doesn’t set up to be an advantageous spot for the better than 1 touchdown favorite to cover. Additionally, Miami is just a middle of the road 13-9 in their last 22 games. Appalachian State is coming off last week’s season opening 33-19 home win over East Carolina in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. The Mountaineers exhibited an impressively balanced offense attach while amassing 226 rushing yards and 259 through the air. This is an Appalachian State football program that’s gone 52-11 (.825) straight up during its previous 63 games played. Furthermore, throughout that successful stretch they were only an underdog 9 times and covered on 6 of those occasions. Any college football non-conference underdog of 4.0 to 9.5 that’s coming off a non-conference win in which they allowed 19 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent (Miami) who has won 19 or fewer of their previous 22 games, resulted in those away underdogs going 17-0 ATS since 2017. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
UTSA @ Illinois 7:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: UTSA +5.0 (10*) Just a week removed for knocking off Big 10 rival Nebraska in their opening game as a 6.5-point home underdog, Illinois finds themselves as a single-digit favorite against an opponent from Conference USA. The sportsbooks are begging you to take the chalk in this spot but I’m not being lured in by the bait. The Illini were beneficiaries of Nebraska continually shooting themselves in the foot. Specifically speaking, 9 of their points came via a fumble return for a touchdown with less than a minute to go in the half, and on a safety when a Nebraska punt returner decided to field the ball on his own 1-yard line. Additionally, Illinois has a stern road test the following week at Virginia. UTSA returns 21 starters from a team that finished 7-5 a season ago which included a bowl game loss to nationally ranked UL-Lafayette. |
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09-01-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Braves (Fried) @ Dodgers (Scherzer) 10:10 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Atlanta +1.5 (-115) (10*) Max Scherzer has paid huge dividends for the Dodgers since coming over from Washington at the trade deadline. However, Scherzer has made 2 starts since last year versus Atlanta including 1 in 2021 and had a large 7.94 ERA while allowing 6 home runs during 11 1/3 innings pitched during those outings. Granted the Dodgers are currently red-hot, but it’s been much to do with their pitching as opposed to their perceived offensive prowess. As a matter of fact, the Dodgers have averaged 3.5 runs scored and 6.4 hits per game throughout their last 12 outings. Max Fried is finally healthy and it shows. During his last 6 starts Fried has compiled an excellent 1.58 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while walking only 4 batters in 40.0 innings pitched. Since the start of last season, Fried has made 3 starts versus the Dodgers and posted a sparkling 2.41 ERA. Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 41-15 (.732) in their last 56 games with Max Fried as their starting pitcher. Bet the Braves +1.5 on the run-line. |
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08-07-21 | Marlins v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 116 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Marlins (Luzardo) @ Rockies (Gomber) 8:10 PM ET Game# 909-910 Play On: Rockies -1.5 (+116) (10*) Miami has gone a dismal 8-21 (.270) during its last 29 road games. The Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo has a lofty 5.73 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this year in 7 starts. The Rockies Austin Gomber has been extremely good at Coors Field this season while posting a 1.98 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in 7 starts. Colorado has gone a highly profitable 12-2 this season as a money line favorite of -120 or greater and outscored their opponents by a decisive margin of 4.2 runs per game. Bet the Rockies on the run-line for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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08-05-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 21 m | Show |
Diamondbacks (Kelly) @ Giants (Wood) 3:40 PM ET Game# 905-906 Play On: Giants -1.5 (-105) (10*) Arizona is coming off yesterday’s 7-1 loss to San Francisco. The Diamondback have gone an abysmal 0-20 in their last 20 this season following a game in which they scored 1 run or less, and they were outscored by an average margin of 3.2 runs per outing. Arizona will be facing lefty Alex Wood this afternoon. Wood has averaged 5.8 strikeouts per game in his 18 starts this season. Conversely, Arizona is an atrocious 2-38 this season when facing pitchers who average 5.0 or more strikeout per start, and they were outscored by a sizable margin of 4.0 runs per game. The Arizona bullpen has a pathetic 8.00 ERA over its last 7 games. The Giants will be facing Arizona starter Merrill Kelly today. This current Giants active roster has gone 31-for-93 against Kelly in their careers for a .333 batting average and immense .961 OPS. The Giants are an extremely profitable 49-25 when facing righthanded starters this season and 26-13 during day games. San Francisco is 12-2 this season when facing Arizona. Alex Wood is 2-0 versus Arizona this season with a more than respectable 3.27 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. During their last 7 outing, San Francisco have averaged a lofty 6.2 runs scored per game while also cracking 13 home runs. Bet on the Giants on the run-line for a Top Play wager. |
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08-02-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Giants (DeSclafani) @ Diamondbacks (Widener) 9:40 PM ET Game# 957-958 Play On: Giants -1.5 (-120) (10*) Taylor Widener has faced 2 of the weakest hitting teams in baseball (Texas, Pittsburgh) during his last 2 starts and was awful on both occasions. During those 2 outings he allowed 10 earned runs on 13 hits while walking 6 in just 8 1/3 innings pitched. The Arizona bullpen has compiled a lofty 5.68 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The Diamondbacks are coming off yesterday’s 13-0 blowout loss to the Dodgers. Arizona is an abysmal 1-19 this season following a game in which they scored 1 run or fewer. They were outscored in those 20 occurrences by an average of 2.9 runs per game. The Diamondbacks are also a dismal 3-19 this season as a money line home underdog of +125 or greater and were outscored by an average of 3.9 runs per game. If you take away his 5 starts against the Dodgers this year, Anthony DeSclafani could possibly be in the National League Cy Young Award conversation. That’s how well he’s pitched against everyone else. Since 2016, DeSlafani ius 5-1 during his team starts versus Arizona with a brilliant 1.27 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. The Giants bullpen has an impressive 1.10 WHIP this season and that includes an even better 0.89 throughout their previous 7 games. The Giants have dominated Arizona this season while winning 9 of 10 against them. Bet the Giants on the run-line for a Top Play wager. |
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07-20-21 | Mariners v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Mariners (Gonzalez) @ Rockies (Marquez) 8:40 PM ET Game# 929-930 Play On: Rockies (-1.5) (+105) (10*) The Mariners Marco Gonzalez has a large 6.98 ERA in 4 road starts this season. That’s certainly a red glag when considering he will be pitching at the hitter’s paradise called Coors Field tonight. The Rockies German Marquez has made 3 career starts versus Seattle while registering a dominant 1.71 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. Marquez has displayed excellent form over his last 5 starts with a microscopic 0.75 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, and averaged a plentiful 7.2 innings pitched per outing. It then comes as no surprise when I say that Colorado went 5-0 in those outings and won by a decisive margin of 3.8 runs per game. Marquez has gone 10-2 in his home team starts this season with an impressive 3.06 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Colorado is far and away the worst road team in baseball this year. However, at the friendly confines of Coors Field they have gone an extremely profitable 32-19 (.627) and that includes 19-7 (.731) during their previous 26 at home. During those last 26 home games, $100 bettors that backed Colorado made a net profit of $1533. Bet on the Rockies for a 10* Top Play run-line wager. |
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07-14-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Suns @ Bucks 9:05 PM ET Play On: Suns +5.0 (10*) I cashed in with Milwaukee in the last game of these NBA Finals after they crushed Phoenix 120-100. However, I am banking on Phoenix being the resilient team they has shown to be for the past 5 plus months. Since 1/28/2021, Phoenix has gone 15-3 following a loss in their previous game. The Suns are also 13-1 SU&ATS in their last 14 this season following a non-division game in which they allowed 120 points or more. Additionally, Phoenix is 10-0 SU&ATS during their previous 10 games this season following a non-division loss in which they allowed 100 points or more and won by an average of 13.6 points per contest. Bet on the Suns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks +5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
Bucks @ Suns 9:05 PM ET Play On: Bucks +5.0 (10*) Milwaukee lost the opening game of these 2021 NBA Finals on Tuesday by a score of 118-105 and failed to cover as a 5.5-point underdog. Since losing Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals series against Brooklyn, The Bucks have won 4 straight following a loss and won by an average of 15.7 points per game. As a matter of fact, Milwaukee is 9-1 in their last 10 overall following a loss. Any NBA Finals Game 2 away underdog of 8.0 or less that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 8.0-points or less, and they’re facing either a #1 or #2 seed, resulted in those away underdogs going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1994. The average line in those contests was 5.2. Bet on the Bucks plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Bucks @ Suns 9:05 PM ET Play On: Suns -5.5 (10*) Since losing Game 3 of their 1st round series versus the Lakers, Phoenix has gone 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS to reach the NBA Finals for a first time since 1993. Milwaukee secured their sport in the NBA Finals with an Eastern Conference Finals Game 6 win at Atlanta as a 3.5-point underdog. Despite that win, the Bucks are just 2-5 SU&ATS as a road underdog this season. Milwaukee is 0-2 SU&ATS in their last 2 series openers The Bucks will enter the NBA Finals with a win percentage of just .651. Any NBA Finals Game 1 home favorite of 8.0 or less versus an opponent with a win percentage of .728 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 2005, and the average margin of victory came by a decisive 13.1 points per game. Phoenix is a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS in their opening games of a playoff series during these 2021 NBA Playoffs. The Suns have also played terrific defense throughout this year’s postseason while holding opponents to just 101.9 points scored per game. Bet on the Suns minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -3 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Atlanta @ Milwaukee 8:35 PM ET Play On: Milwaukee -3.0 (10*) The line has been adjusted accordingly due to the absence of Milwaukee star Giannis Antetkounmpo (28.1 PPG/11.0 RPG). However, the Bucks have enough talent to survive in the short term without him. Milwaukee is 32-11 at home this season which includes 6-1 in the playoffs. The Bucks will be out to atone for a Game 4 loss by 22 points as a sizable 9.0-point favorite. Any NBA Playoffs Game 5 home team that’s coming off exactly 1 loss, and has a win percentage of .627 or better, resulted in those home teams going 50-9 (84.7%) since the 1999 postseason. The straight up results take on added significance due to the low number we are being asked to cover. Bet on Milwaukee minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Bucks @ Hawks 8:35 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Bucks -6.5 (10*) The Bucks won Game 3 at Atlanta by a score of 113-102 and covered as a 5.0-point favorite. That seemed like a sizable number to cover as a road favorite versus an opponent that entered that contest having gone 22-5 straight up in their previous 27 at home. However, Atlanta has now dropped 3 of their last 4 at home and they find themselves as an even larger home underdog than they were in Game 3. Additionally, the status of star point-guard Trae Young is questionable for Game 4 after he tweaked a previously injured angle during 4th quarter action. It’s no fluke that Milwaukee finished the game by outscoring Atlanta 25-7 and that dominating run coincided with Trae Young reinjuring his ankle. Remember, we are talking about a player (Young) that has averaged 29.8 points and 9.5 assists per game during these 2021 NBA Playoffs. Even if he does play tonight, it’s not a stretch to believe he will be far less than 100%. During the past 2 games of this series both won by Milwaukee, the Bucks shot better than 51% on each occasion, and were +28 on the boards which included amassing a combined 31 offensive rebounds. Any NBA Playoffs away favorite of 6.0 or greater (Bucks) that’s coming off a win by 21 or less has gone 18-1 ATS (94.7%) and 19-0 SU since 2013. Those away favorites won by an average of 16.2 points per game. Bet on the Bucks minus the points for a 5* wager. |
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06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
Suns @ Clippers 9:05 PM ET Game# 591-592 Play On: Clippers +1.0 (5*) The Clippers have gone a perfect 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home during these 2021 NBA Playoffs and won by a decisive average of 16.2 points per game. Speaking of perfect, the Clippers are 10-0 SU&ATS in their last 10 at home versus Phoenix with an average victory margin of 21.2 points per game. During the first 2 rounds of the playoffs, Los Angeles is 2-0 SU&ATS in Game 4 of those series and outscored those opponents (Dallas, Utah) by 19.5 points per contest. Bet on the Clippers for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Hawks @ Bucks 8:35 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Bucks -7.5 (10*) Milwaukee is coming off a 116-113 home loss as an 8.0-point favorite in the series opener on Wednesday. The Bucks are 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a favorite of -5.5 or more following a straight up loss as a favorite of -6.5 or more in their previous game, and they won by an average of 14.0 points per contest. That loss dropped the Bucks season win percentage to .642 while Atlanta sits at .600 heading into today. Any NBA Playoffs Game 2 home favorite of 7.5 or greater (Bucks) that’s coming off a home favorite of 5.5 or more straight up loss in Game 1, and they possess a win percentage of .639 or better, versus an opponent (Hawks) with a winning percentage of .648 or worse, resulted in the Game 2 home favorites going 18-2 ATS (90%) since 1994. Those home favorites also held their opponents to less than 100 points in 18 of those 20 games. Bet on Milwaukee minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Atlanta @ Philadelphia 8:05 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Philadelphia -7.0 (10*) Philadelphia is coming off a 104-99 Game 6 win at Atlanta to stave off elimination a force a deciding Game 7. Now they return home where they’ve gone an outstanding 68-14 straight up in their last 82 games and that includes 49-30-3 ATS (62%). Additionally, if they were facing an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss the 76ers improved to 30-5 SU and 25-8 ATS (75.8). Any NBA Playoff Game 7 home favorite of 4.5 or greater (76ers) who’s coming off a game in which they allowed 118 points or fewer, and they (76ers) have won 57 or more of its last 82 at home, versus an opponent (Hawks) with a win percentage of .613 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 15-1 ATS since 2002. If those contests took place after Round 1 of the playoffs had been completed, then the home teams improve to a perfect 7-0 ATS and they won by an average of 15.7 points per game. Bet on Philadelphia minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-14-21 | Jazz +5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Jazz @ Clippers 10:00 PM ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Utah +5.0 (10*) The Western Conference’s top seed Utah is coming off Saturday’s humbling 132-106 road loss to the #4 seed Clippers. However, the Jazz still lead this series 2-1 and I look for them to rebound with a strong effort tonight. Additionally, Utah has gone 12-1 straight up in their previous 13 after allowing 120 points or more during its last game. Considering the Jazz are an underdog, that’s an in-season team trend I just can’t ignore. The Clippers are coming off a 4-3 series win over Dallas during opening round action and lost 3 home games while doing so. Any NBA Playoffs #1 seed that’s a conference road underdog of 5.5 or less who’s coming off a loss by 11 to 26 points in their previous contest, and they have a season win percentage of .755 or worse, resulted in those road underdogs going 12-1 ATS (92.3%) since 2002. Those underdogs were also 9-4 straight up in those contests. Bet on Utah for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 110 | 56 h 23 m | Show |
Montreal @ Las Vegas 9:05 PM ET Play On: Las Vegas -1.5 (+110) (10*) Since falling behind Toronto 3-1 in their first round series versus Toronto, Montreal has reeled off 7 straight wins. Yet, the sportsbooks seem undeterred and unimpressed by the Canadiens recent success based on the money line for Game 1 versus Las Vegas. The strategy is working since were have seen a high volume of money line bets come in on Montreal at this early of a juncture. Las Vegas will be battle tested after beating Minnesota in 7 games and #1 seed Colorado in 6. Bet on Las Vegas -1.5 on the puck-line for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-13-21 | Nets v. Bucks +2 | Top | 96-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
Bucks @ Nets 3:30 PM ET Play On: Bucks +2.0 (10*) Milwaukee is coming off a narrow 86-83 win in Game 3 but failed to cover as a 3.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Bucks season win percentage to .645 and dropped Brooklyn to .666. This sets up a terrific NBA betting angle which fits perfectly into Game 4 of this Eastern Conference semifinal series. Any NBA home team with a win percentage of .600 to .750 that scored 113 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (Nets) that’s coming off a road loss but still covered as an underdog, and they scored 111 points or fewer in that previous contest, resulted in those NBA home teams going 59-5 (92.2%) straight up since the 1993-1994 season began. This straight up betting angle takes on added significance since it back the home underdog in this contest. By the way, those home teams also went 46-14-4 ATS during those 64 games regardless of what the point-spread was. Bet on the Bucks plus the small number for a 10* Top Play. |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Utah @ LA Clippers 8:30 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: LA Clippers -4.5 (10*) The Clippers are coming off a 117-111 loss at Utah to put them in a 2-0 series hole. However, NBA Playoffs betting history indicates that home favorites down 2-0 in a series have been extremely profitable over the past 29 years when cast into the precise situation displayed below. Any home favorite of 3.0 to 8.5 in Game 3 of a playoff series that’s down 2-0, and their loss in Game 2 came by 6-points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 38-14 ATS (73.1%) since the 1992 postseason began. Bet on the Clippers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Philadelphia @ Atlanta 7:35 PM ET Game# 531-532 Play On: Atlanta +1.5 (10*) The Atlanta Hawks are 13-0 in their last 13 home games. Yet, the Hawks find themselves as a small home underdog in today’s Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Semifinal series. It must be noted, since the start of the 2018-2019 NBA season, Atlanta is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS when playing at home versus Philadelphia. That includes a 112-94 blowout win in their only home game versus Philadelphia this season. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia has gone a dominating 63-9 at home. However, they’re an uninspiring 29-40 on the road during that identical time frame. Bet on Atlanta for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
Nets @ Bucks 7:35 ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Bucks -3.5 (10*) After losing and failing to cover each of the first 2 games of this series, the Bucks will be extremely desperate tonight for a win, and I for one believe they will be up to the task. Furthermore, they will be out to atone for a humiliating 125-86 loss in Game 2 at Brooklyn this past Monday. It’s worth noting, since the start of the 2018-2019 season, Milwaukee is 5-0 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 12.0 or less following a game in which they scored fewer than 100 points, and their average margin of victory was by a decisive 14.6 points per contest. This will be a spot where Brooklyn will miss the absence of star point guard James Harden not being available due to injury. Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of 3.0 to 6.5 that’s playing in a Game 3 and is down 2-0 in the series, resulted in those home favorites going 22-7 (76%) ATS since 2004. Bet on the Bucks minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-08-21 | Clippers +3 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Push | 0 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
LA Clippers @ Utah 10:05 PM ET Play On: LA Clippers +3.0 (10*) The Clippers showed resilience in overcoming a 3-2 series deficit against Dallas in opening round action. As a matter of fact, the Clippers went 3-0 SU&ATS on the road during that Western Conference Quarterfinal series. The Clippers faced a tougher opponent in Dallas than Utah faced against an extremely young Memphis team. That will pay dividends for the Clippers at least early in this series. Bet on the Clippers plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Milwaukee @ Brooklyn 7:35 PM ET Play On: Milwaukee +4.0 (10*) There will be no analysis today due to time restrictions. |
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05-31-21 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 109 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Nationals (Ross) @ Braves (Morton) 5:10 PM ET Game# 955-956 Play On: Braves -1.5 (+109) (10*) Washington starter Joe Ross is 0-3 in his last 3 road team starts this with a terrible 8.52 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. The Nationals enter today on a 4-game losing streak and scored only a combined 4 runs in that stretch including being held scoreless twice. The Braves were rained out yesterday and are coming off a 13-2 blowout loss on Saturday at Citi Field in New York. Since the start of last season, Atlanta has gone an extremely profitable 23-8 following a game in which they scored 2 runs or less and outscored their opponents by 2.7 runs per outing. Atlanta pitcher Charlie Morton has displayed superb form over his last 3 starts while posting a 2.04 ERA and 0.91 WHIP.Bet on the Braves for a 10* run line wager. |
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05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +3 | Top | 106-81 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Dallas missed a golden opportunity to get a stranglehold of this series following a home loss on Friday. Nevertheless, it served as a wakeup call and I look for a strong effort from the Mavericks at home on Sunday. Furthermore, the Mavericks are 5-0 straight up in their last 5 games following a loss. That bodes well for betting value when considering they're a small underdog today. Bet on Dallas plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5 | Top | 121-111 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Utah @ Memphis 9:35 PM ET Game# 577-578 Play On: Memphis +5.5 (10*) The Grizzlies enter Game 3 of this series on a 5-game home winning streak. Memphis is coming off a 141-129 loss to Utah in Game 2 which evened this series at 1-1. The Grizzlies have gone 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games this season following a road loss by 10 points or more. Memphis is also 3-0 SU&ATS this season in that previously mentioned situation when they were an underdog and won by 15.0 points per game. Furthermore, regardless of the point-spread, Memphis is 13-2 SU&ATS during their previous 15 games following a loss by 10 points or more. The Grizzlies are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a home underdog despite losing 4 of those 5 contests straight up. However, those 4 straight up losses came by only a combined 7 points. Conversely, Utah has gone 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS during its last 6 road games following a win by 10 or more. Bet on Memphis plus the points as a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 120-115 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Denver @ Portland 10:35 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Portland -3.5 (10*) Portland is coming off a 128-102 loss to Denver on Tuesday which evened this series up at 1-1. Despite that defeat, Portland has gone an impressive 11-3 in their previous 14 games. Furthermore, the Trailblazers are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 24.3 points per game while doing so. Any NBA Playoffs home favorite of -2.0 or more with a winning record that’s playing a Game 3 in the first round and is coming off a loss by 8 points or more which evened the series at 1-1, versus an opponent (Denver) with a win percentage of .595 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1993. The home favorites won those 13 contests by a decisive margin of 11.7 points per game. Bet on Portland minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-26-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -8 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
Washington @ Philadelphia 7:05 PM ET Game# 541-542 Play On: Philadelphia -8.0 (10*) Philadelphia took Game 1 of this series with a 125-118 win but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite. They barely missed the cover despite allowing Washington to shoot 55.7% from the field. That kind of shooting performance by the Wizards is highly improbable to occur again tonight against a usually stout defensive team like Philadelphia. I am also extremely confident that that Washington will continue to have few if any defensive answers in slowing down Philadelphia. During their 4 games versus Washington this season, Philadelphia has averaged 126.5 points per contest while shooting a sizzling hot 53% and includes 42.7% from 3-point range. Any NBA Playoff home favorite of 3.0 to 10.5 (Philadelphia) that’s playing Game 2 of a series, and they are coming off a home win in which they failed to cover by 3.5 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 13-0 SU&ATS since the 2007 postseason, and the average margin of victory came by 16.5 points per contest. Play on Philadelphia minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-25-21 | Lakers v. Suns +2 | Top | 109-102 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
LA Lakers @ Phoenix 10:05 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Phoenix +2.0 (10*) Phoenix won the opening game of this series 99-90. The Suns have now won 15 of their last 16 home games. Conversely, the Lakers are 0-4 SU&ATS in their previous 4 away games when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. Any NBA home team playing in an opening round Game 2 of a playoff series that’s coming off a home win by 7 points while allowing less than 100 points, and they possess a win percentage of .615 or better, resulted in those home teams going 48-6 (88.9%) straight up since 2000. This NBA Playoffs straight up betting angle takes on added value since it supports the underdog in this contest. Bet on Phoenix plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-24-21 | Cardinals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 115 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Cardinals (Kim) @ White Sox (Lynn) 8:10 PM ET Game# 915-916 Play On: White Sox -1.5 (+115) (10*) The St. Louis lefthanded pitcher Kim is 5-1 in his team starts this season with a shiny 2.73 ERA. However, he’s yet to reach the 6th inning in any of those outings. That is problematic when considering the Cardinals bullpen has a cumulative 7.46 ERA and 2.01 WHIP throughout their previous 7 games. The White Sox Lance Lynn has been terrific in 7 starts this season while posting a 1.55 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The White Sox bullpen has been solid at home this year while recording a staff 3.38 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and amassing 75 strikeouts while walking just 13. The White Sox have gone an extremely profitable 24-3 when facing lefthanded starters since last season began. They have faced 12 southpaw starters in 2021 and averaged 8.0 runs scored per game while smashing 17 home runs. Putting that home run number in perspective, Chicago has hit only 27 home runs in 33 games when facing right-handed starters. Bet the White on the run-line for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-23-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
Washington @ Philadelphia 1:05 PM ET Game# 507-508 Play On: Philadelphia -7.5 (10*) For starters, Philadelphia enters this opening game of the series with a full week of rest. Conversely, Washington will be playing their 3rd game in 5-days. That’s a huge advantage to Philadelphia in that specific category. Since the start of last season, Philadelphia has gone a dominating 37-3 straight up in conference home games and they also went a profitable 27-13 ATS (67.5%) in those contests. Furthermore, if those conference home tilts took place after Game 55 of the season, the 76ers were 9-0 SU&ATS and won by a decisive 18.7 points per contest. Since the 2016-2017 season began, Philadelphia has gone 9-0 straight up at home versus Washington, and 3-0 ATS if they were favorites of 7.5 or more. Additionally, the 76ers won all 3 meetings against Washington this season. During those 3 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia averaged a sizable 127.0 points scored per game, shot a sizzling hot 54.3% which included an extremely impressive 47.4% from 3-point territory, and held a +7.3 rebound per game advantage. Bet on Philadelphia minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-22-21 | Blazers +1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 123-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Portland @ Denver 10:35 PM ET Game# 511-512 Play On: Portland +1.5 (10*) For starters, I don’t see the Nuggets having any sustained success this postseason without Jamal Murray (21.2 PPG). Based on this current line, the sportsbooks are in agreeance with my opinion. Let’s not forget, Murray averaged a sizable 26.5 points scored per game, shot 50.5%, made 45.3% of his 3-point attempts, and was 89.7% from the free throw line during 19 playoff game a year ago. He was the main cog in leading Denver to the Western Conference Finals where they lost to the eventual world champion Lakers in 5 games. As a matter of fact, Murray had 4 games of 40 or more points during last year’s playoffs. Portland finished the season by winning 10 of their previous 12 games. It’s by no coincidence that they caught fire once they had both starting guards Damien Lillard and C.J. McCollum on the floor at the same time. McCollum missed an extended period of this season due to injury. The former Lehigh star played in just 47 of Portland’s 72 games this season. However, he did average a career best 23.1 points per game this season. McCollum has averaged 20 points or more during the previous 5 postseasons. His running mate Damien Lillard average 28.8 points and 7.5 assists per game during regular season action. The Blazers point guard also averaged 7.2 free throws per contest and made 92.8% of those attempts. Lastly, Portland was an extremely profitable 11-3 SU&ATS on the road this season when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. Bet on Portland for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3 | Top | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Indiana @ Washington 8:05 PM ET Game# 575-576 Play On: Washington -3.0 (10*) These teams have met 3 times during regular season action and Washington walked away a winner on each occasion. The Wizards finished regular season play winning their last 4 and 9 of its previous 10 home games. The Wizards are coming off Tuesday’s 118-100 loss at Boston. They’ve gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a home favorite following a loss and won by a decisive margin of 14.0 points per game. During their 3 regular season matchups against Indiana, Washington averaged a massive 143.0 points scored per game, shot 58.4% from the field, and made an extremely impressive 46.3% of its 3-point attempts. Bet on Washington minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-19-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show |
Pirates (Cahill) @ Cardinals (Flaherty) 7:45 PM ET Game# 961-962 Play On: Cardinals -1.5 (-105) (10*) The Cardinals are 4-0 versus Pittsburgh this season and all those wins came by 3 runs or more. St. Louis will go with their ace Jack Flaherty on Wednesday and he’s been sensational thus far in 2021. Specifically speaking, Flaherty is 8-0 in his team starts with a stellar 2.47 ERA and 0.95 while all those wins came by 2 runs or more. Furthermore, the Cardinals hurler has made 3 starts at Busch Stadium this year while recording a dominating 0.95 ERA and 0.52 WHIP during those outings. Flaherty is also 8-2 in his career team starts versus Pittsburgh with a 2.47 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. St. Louis is 11-1 in their last 12 as a money line favorite. The Pirates Trevor Cahill is 0-4 during his team starts at night this year with a terrible 9.33 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. Bet on the Cardinals as a 10* Top Play run-line wager. |
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05-18-21 | Hornets +3 v. Pacers | Top | 117-144 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Charlotte @ Indiana 6:35 PM ET Game# 559-560 Play On: Charlotte +3.0 (10*) Charlotte is unequivocally the healthier team in this matchup All you have to do is look at the Pacers current injury report below resembles the 1222-page book titled “War and Peace” written by Leo Tolstoy. The last time these teams met was on April 2nd at Indiana and Charlotte walked away with a decisive 114-97 win and did so as a 5.0-point underdog. Furthermore, the sportsbooks currently have this as virtually an even game despite Charlotte entering today on a 5-game losing streak. This just in, they just aren’t that kind or careless when setting a line. Bet on Charlotte for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-17-21 | Rockies v. Padres -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 118 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
Colorado (Gray) @ San Diego (Darvish) 10:10 PM ET Game# 959-960 Play On: San Diego -1.5 (+118) (10*) Colorado is an abysmal 2-14 on the road this season and 12 of those 14 losses came by 2 runs or more. Furthermore, since 6/21/2019, Colorado has gone 26-64 on the road and 50 of those defeats were by 2 runs or greater. Colorado’s Jon Gray has made 2 road starts this season and had a lofty 6.30 ERA in those outings. The Rockies are coming off yesterday’s gut wrenching 7-6 home loss to Cincinnati in a game they led 6-1 after 7 innings. Once again the Rockies terrible bullpen imploded in that loss and they now have a massive 9.39 ERA with a 1.91 WHIP over their previous 7 games. The Padres have won 5 straight at home versus Colorado and held them to a combined 9 runs scored while doing so. You Darvish has been remarkable during his last 6 starts with an exceptional 1.47 ERA and 0.81 WHIP during 43.0 innings pitched. The Padres have won 6 of their last 7 and averaged 7.0 runs scored per game during that stretch. The San Diego bullpen has been terrific all season and they’re averaging well over a strikeout per inning. Bet on San Diego for a 10* Top Play run line wager. |
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05-13-21 | Kings +8 v. Grizzlies | Top | 110-116 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Sacramento @ Memphis 8:05 PM ET Game# 573-574 Play On: Sacramento +8.0 (10*) Since the start of the 2014-2015 NBA season, any team (Sacramento) coming off home wins by 10 points or more in each of their previous 2 games played, and they have a win percentage of .340 or better after game 27 of their season, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .571 or worse, and that team (Memphis) is coming off a straight win as an underdog, resulted in those teams going 28-1 straight up. This NBA straight up betting angle takes on added value since it backs the sizable underdog in this contest. Bet on Sacramento plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-11-21 | Wolves v. Pistons +7.5 | Top | 119-100 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Detroit 7:05 PM ET Game# 529-530 Play On: Detroit +7.5 (10*) I know the Pistons roster has been ravaged by injuries to key personnel. However, Minnesota laying this many points in this precise betting situation is a bit much. The Pistons are 0-2 SU&ATS in their last 2 games. Nonetheless, Detroit is 6-0 ATS as an underdog this season following ATS losses in each of their previous 2 games, and they won straight up on 3 of those occasions. Detroit is 20-49 (.289) this season. Minnesota is coming off a 128-96 road win at Orlando and covered with ease as a 7.5-point favorite. That win improved their season record to 21-47 (.309). This sets up an extremely profitable NBA straight up betting angle which heavily favors the home underdog in this contest. Any home team with a win percentage of .285 or better (Detroit), versus an opponent who has a win percentage of .250 to .400, and they are coming off an ATS win in which they (Minnesota) covered by 19.5 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 49-7 straight up since the 2016-2017 season began. Bet on Detroit plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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05-05-21 | Suns v. Hawks +1 | Top | 103-135 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Phoenix @ Atlanta 8:05 PM ET Game# 521-522 Play On: Atlanta +1.0 (10*) This will be a tough sport for even an excellent team like Phoenix. The Suns will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and are coming off yesterday’s 134-118 win at Cleveland. Teams that have faced the Hawks when playing with nor rest have gone 3-10 SU&ATS in their last 13 games this season. That includes 1-7 SU&ATS in the last 8 if Atlanta was playing with 1 or more days rest. Speaking of Atlanta, they have gone an extremely profitable 14-2 SU&ATS in their last 16 at home, and that includes 6-0 SU&ATS during their previous 6. This will be an excellent opportunity to make a statement for Atlanta against an elite opponent that will be potentially vulnerable this evening. Bet on Atlanta for a 10* Top Play. |
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05-01-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves +4.5 | Top | 140-136 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
New Orleans @ Minnesota 8:05 PM ET Game# 533-534 Play On: Minnesota +4.5 (10*) I cashed in with Minnesota as a 4.5-point home underdog on Thursday in their 126-114 win over Golden State. I am coming right back with them on Saturday. Minnesota has now gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with 3 of those coming as an underdog. Minnesota is 2-0 SU&ATS this season versus New Orleans in games they were an 8.0 and 8.5-point underdog while winning both by comfortable double-digit margins. The Timberwolves are also 3-0 SU&ATS in their previous 3 at home and those wins came against opponents with a combined 109-80 (.577) record. Conversely, New Orleans has gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 as a favorite of 9.5 or less. Bet on Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-27-21 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 114 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
Mariners (Gonzalez) @ Astros (Javier) 8:10 ET Game# 973-974 Play On: Astros -1.5 (+114) (10*) Seattle starter Marco Gonzalez has made 4 career starts at Minute Maid Park in Houston and had a poor 6.41 ERA and 1.88 WHIP during those appearances. Since the 2019 season began, Houston has gone an incredible 17-1 at home versus Seattle and 12 of those wins came by 2 runs or more. The Astros starter Christian Javier has been dominant in 3 starts this season with a 1.32 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Bet Houston on the run line for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-25-21 | Suns +2 v. Nets | Top | 119-128 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Phoenix @ Brooklyn 3:30 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: Phoenix +2.0 (10*) This will be the finale of an extremely 4-game in 7-day road trip for Phoenix. The Suns opened the trip with wins over 2 of the Eastern Conference’s elite team in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. They then laid an egg at Boston on Thursday losing to the Celtics 99-86. However, that was their 3rd road game in 4 days and were destined to fail following 2 huge wins. Now they come into today’s matchup against another Eastern Conference team and with 2 days of rest. Furthermore, the Suns are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 following a loss and won by a decisive average of 14.8 points per game. The Suns will also be out to revenge a 128-124 home loss to Brooklyn on 2/16 in a game they squandered a 24-point lead. Furthermore, Phoenix has gone an unscathed 6-0 SU&ATS this season as a road underdog of 5.5 or less. Speaking of Brooklyn, they’re coming off a 109-104 home win over Boston. However, the Nets have gone 0-4 straight up in their previous 4 following a win and lost by 11.0 points per contest. Bet on Phoenix for a 5* wager. |
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04-22-21 | Suns v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
Phoenix @ Boston 7:05 PM ET Game# 555-556 Play On: Boston +1.5 (10*) Boston is coming off a disappointing 102-96 home loss to a 24-34 Chicago Bulls team. It was even more disheartening when considering that defeat halted a season high 6-game Celtics win streak. However, one can make a strong argument that they were caught looking ahead to today’s matchup against Phoenix (42-16) and tomorrow’s contest at Brooklyn (39-20). Furthermore, since the start of last season, Boston is a profitable 15-7 ATS as an underdog of 3.0 or less. Boston has also gone 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as an underdog of 2.5 or less versus an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or better. This is an extremely tough spot for Phoenix even as good as they are. This will be their 3rd road game in 4 days, and they’ll be playing with no rest. Additionally, they are coming off wins during their previous 2 against elite teams in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. Both those contests went right down to the wire with Phoenix beating the Bucks on Monday 128-127 in overtime and then yesterday’s 116-113 victory over the 76ers. NBA betting history over the past 25 seasons has proven that teams like Phoenix in this identical situation haven’t fared well straight up let alone laying points in away games. Since the 2012-2013 NBA season began, road teams playing with no rest that are coming off road wins by 5 points or fewer in each of their previous 2 games played, resulted in those road teams going 0-12 straight up. Bet on Boston plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-18-21 | Wolves v. Clippers -10 | Top | 105-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
Minnesota @ LA Clippers 10:05 PM ET Game# 581-582 Play On: Clippers -10.0 (10*) Minnesota is coming off a 119-111 home win over Miami. The Timberwolves have gone 0-13 straight up and 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games this season following a straight up win. Furthermore, they were an underdog of 5.0 or greater in 7 of those 13 contests and went 0-7 ATS while losing by an average of 18.6 points per game. Minnesota is also 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games versus the Clippers and lost by 15.4 points per contest. The Clippers are 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 conference home games as a favorite and had an average victory margin of 17.6 points per contest. The Clippers are also 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS this season as a conference home favorite of 8.5 or more with a winning margin of 16.5 points per game. Bet on the Clippers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-17-21 | Warriors v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
Golden State @ Boston 8:35 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Boston -4.5 (10*) Golden State has been reinvigorated since Stephen Curry returned from injury. The Warriors are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4. However, hold the phone because 3 of those victories have come over Houston, Oklahoma City, and Cleveland. Those 3 teams have a combined season record of 54-113 (.323). Additionally, Oklahoma City is currently on a 9-game losing streak and Houston has gone an abysmal 4-31 over its last 35 contests. Boston is starting to like the team I thought they would be heading into this season. They have won 5 straight and covered each of their last 4 with 3 of those coming on the road. The Celtics are also 4-0 ATS iun their previous 4 as a home favorite of 3.5 or greater and won by a decisive margin of 17.8 points per game. Bet on Boston minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-13-21 | Heat v. Suns -3 | Top | 86-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
Miami @ Phoenix 10:05 PM ET Game# 579-580 Play On: Phoenix -3.0 (10*) Phoenix is coming off an 126-120 home win over Houston last night despite sleep walking through the 2nd half but failed to cover as a large 13.0-point favorite. Phoenix led that contest 81-58 at halftime and then were outscored the rest of the way by a 62-45 margin by arguably the league’s worst team. The Suns coaching staff was none too pleased with their 2nd half effort and especially so defensively. I look for Phoenix to come back with a strong response tonight that has won 6 of its last 7 and includes going 3-0 during their previous 3 away games. The good news for Phoenix heading into tonight’s game is they’ve gone 11-0 SU&ATS following an ATS loss and won by an average of 16.4 points per contest. The Suns have also gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 at home this season when playing with no rest with an average margin of victory coming by 12.6 points per contest. Conversely, home teams with a win percentage of .600 or better and are playing with no rest versus Miami are 3-0 straight up this season with an average winning margin of 9.4 points per game. Lastly, Phoenix has won their previous 8 home games and that’s significant considering the small number we’re being asked to cover. Bet on Phoenix minus the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-10-21 | Raptors v. Cavs +3 | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Toronto @ Cleveland 7:35 PM ET Game# 583-584 Play On: Cleveland +3.0 (10*) Toronto has gone an abysmal 0-7 SU&ATS in their last 7 away games and lost by an average of 12.9 points per contest. The Raptors are coming off Thursday’s 122-113 home loss to Chicago. Conversely, Cleveland is coming off back-to-back road wins by 24 and 27-point margins. These teams have met just once this season and Cleveland walked away with a 116-105 home win. Any NBA home team that’s coming off back-to-back road wins by 20 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent coming off a loss by 9 points or greater, resulted in those home teams going 46-1 straight up since the 1997-1998 season began. Bet on Cleveland plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -6 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Phoenix @ LA Clippers 10:05 PM ET Game# 569-570 Play On: LA Clippers -6.0 (10*) This seems to be a relatively high number when considering Phoenix leads the Clippers by 3.0 games in the Pacific Division standings. Nonetheless, this is where thinking like an oddsmaker will serve us well. The sportsbooks are inviting you to jump on the sizable road underdog with a superb season record of 36-14 (.720). When something looks to good to be true when it comes to sports betting it can be construed as a sucker bet on most occasions. Now let’s examine this specific NBA betting situation. Phoenix is coming off last night’s overtime home win over current Western Conference #1 seed Utah and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. The Suns had to expend a ton of emotional and physical energy to attain that huge victory. Not only will Phoenix being playing with no rest tonight, it’s also going to be their 3rd game in 4 days. Additionally, the Suns will be facing a rested Clippers team which also possesses an impressive 34-18 record, and they’re coming off a pair of double-digit home wins in their previous 2 games played. Any NBA home favorite of 10.5 or less (Clippers) that’s playing with 1 or more days of rest and is coming off a home favorite ATS win where they covered by 7.0-points or more, versus an opponent (Suns) playing with no rest and coming off a home underdog straight up win by 15 points or fewer, and they (Suns) have a win percentage of .250 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 12-0 ATS since the 1997-1998 season began. The average point-spread for those 12 favorites was -7.8 and their winning margin came by 16.8 points per game. Bet on the Clippers minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2.5 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Utah @ Phoenix 10:05 PM ET Game# 561-562 Play On: Phoenix +2.5 (10*) This will be chance to make a statement for Phoenix versus a Utah team that currently has the best record in the Western Conference. Nonetheless, the Suns aren’t too shabby themselves when considering they’ve gone 27-6 straight up and 23-10 ATS over their previous 33 games. Phoenix will also enter tonight’s contest winners of 6 straight games. Dating back to last season, the Suns have gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU&ATS as an underdog following a straight up win. Since the 1990-1991 NBA season began, home teams that have won 6 or more games in a row have gone 753-230 (85.3%) straight up. Bet on Phoenix plays the small number for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Baylor vs. Gonzaga 9:20 PM ET Game# 811-812 Play On: Gonzaga -4.0 (10*) College Basketball fans have been waiting for this matchup to take place all season and appropriately it occurs in the National Championship game. I cashed in easily with Baylor as a 10* Top Play on Saturday in their blowout win over Houston. I really like this Bears team, but Gonzaga can beat you in a vast assortment of ways. The Bulldogs are coming off their thrilling overtime win against a game and resilient UCLA team. It was the first time in 28 games that Gonzaga had not won a game by 10 points or more. The Bulldogs will be inspired by seeking their first ever national championship and after coming up short in the title game versus North Carolina in 2017. Additionally, Gonzaga will look to be the first team to finish undefeated and win a national championship since Indiana accomplished the feat in 1976. The Bulldogs had their scare against UCLA and now they’ll get back to their dominant self tonight. Bet on Gonzaga minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
Houston vs. Baylor 5:15 PM ET Game# 801-802 Play On: Baylor -5.0 (10*) Houston is the first team in NCAA Tournament history that has won 4 straight games against double-digit seeds. However, they were lucky to escape with a 3-point win over Rutgers and nearly squandered a 17-point halftime lead before winning by 6 versus #12 seed Oregon State in their previous game. On both occasions they failed to cover. Conversely, Baylor is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 with wins coming over the likes of #8 seed Wisconsin, #5 seed Villanova, and #3 seed Arkansas and the average margin of victory was 11.0 points per game. They covered each of those 3 contests as a favorite and averaged just 6.2 turnovers committed per game. Furthermore, Baylor is #1 nationally in 3-point shooting at 41.1% and #3 in offensive efficiency by scoring 123.0 points per every 100 possessions this season. Not only has the top seeded Bears had a tougher slate than Houston during the “Big Dance”, they also played in a significantly stronger Big 12 Conference than the American Athletic where Houston competes. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-31-21 | Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
New York @ Minnesota 8:05 PM ET Game# 519-520 Play On: New York -3.5 (10*) New York is coming off a 98-88 home loss to Miami and failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 24-23 (.511). The Knicks have gone 8-0 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as a favorite following straight up loss. Their average line in those 8 contests was -3.6 and they won straight up by an average of 12.5 points per game. Conversely Minnesota enters today with a dismal 11-36 (.234) season record. Any NBA favorite of 3.5 to 9.0-points (New York) that’s playing after Game 11 of their season and is coming off a home SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 3.0-points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .510 to .600, versus an opponent (Minnesota) with a win percentage of .244 or worse, resulted in those favorites going 29-1 (96.7%) since the 2005-2006 season began. Bet on New York minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 51-49 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
UCLA vs. Michigan 9:55 PM ET Game# 659-660 Play On: Michigan -6.5 (10*) #1 seed Michigan (23-4/.852) takes on #11 seed UCLA (21-9/.700) in Tuesday’s NCAA Tournament East Regional Final. The Wolverines are coming off a 76-58 win over Florida State while covering with ease as a 2.0-point favorite. UCLA is coming off an overtime win over Alabama and did so as a 6.0-point underdog. Since the 1990 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed that’s a favorite of 10.0 or less who possesses a win percentage of .851 to .944, and is playing after Round 1, and they covered their previous game by 4.5-points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .771 or less and they are coming off an upset win, resulted in those top seeds going 12-0 ATS. The average line in those 12 contests was 8.8 and those #1 seeds won by a substantial average of 19.8 points per game. Bet on Michigan minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Arkansas vs. Baylor 9:57 PM ET Game# 653-654 Play On: Baylor -7.5 (10*) Baylor is coming off a 62-51 win over Villanova and covered as a 7.5-point favorite. Since the start of the 2019-2020 season, Baylor has gone an extremely profitable 12-1 ATS following a game in which they allowed 55 points or fewer and they outscored their opponents by an average of 16.1 points per game. Furthermore, Arkansas averages a robust 65 field goal attempts per game this season which translates to playing at a lightning-fast tempo. However, Baylor is 9-1 ATS during the past 3 seasons versus opponents averaging 62 or more field goal attempts per game and outscored those team by a decisive margin of 20.0 points per contest. Simply put, attempting to play up tempo basketball plays right into the Bears hands. Arkansas barely escaped with a 72-70 win over #15 seed Oral Roberts in their previous game while failing to cover as an 11.0-point favorite. Any NCAA Tournament favorite of 9.0 or less that’s playing after Round 1, and they’re coming off an ATS cover as a favorite, versus an opponent (Arkansas) coming off game in which they failed to cover as a favorite, and that opponent has a win percentage of .687 or better, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS since 2012. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests was 17.7 points per game. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-28-21 | UCLA v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 88-78 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
UCLA @ Alabama 7:15 PM ET Game# 645-646 Play On: Alabama -6.5 (10*) History isn’t on the side of UCLA in this contest. Since the NCAA Tournament Play-In Round was established in 2015, no team has advanced from that round to a Regional Final. As a matter of fact, the only other team to even reach the Sweet 16 was Syracuse in 2018. The Bruins have been beneficiaries of a favorable draw in their NCAA Tournament wins while defeating #11 seed Michigan State, #6 seed BYU, and #14 seed Abilene Christian. They will be facing a whole other level of competition on Sunday when they square off against #2 seed Alabama. Alabama enters this Sweet 16 contest having won their last 8 and 22 of its previous 25 games. The Crimson Tide had a combined +37 rebounding advantage in the first 2 rounds versus Iona and Maryland. Alabama has the lethal combination of being a good 3-point shooting team and they defend the 3-point line extremely well (28.9%). The Crimson Tide has allowed their last 5 opponents to average a mere 11 free throw attempts per game. Alabama enters this contest with a season record of 26-6 (.813). The Crimson Tide is coming off an impressive 96-77 win over Maryland in a game they easily covered as a 6.0-point favorite. They will be facing a UCLA team with a season record of 20-9 (.690). The combination of this data sets up an NCAA Tournament betting angle which has remained perfect since 2002 and is shown below. Any Sweet 16 favorite of 3.5 or more that’s a #2 seed (Alabama), and they possess a win percentage of .806 to .870, and they’re coming off an ATS win as a favorite in which they scored 68 points or greater, versus an opponent (UCLA) with a win percentage of .685 or better, resulted in those #2 seeds going 12-0 ATS since 1992. The average margin of victory in those 12 contests came by 13.5 points per game. Bet on Alabama minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-27-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -7 | Top | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show |
Villanova vs. Baylor 5:15 PM ET Game# 621-622 Play On: Baylor -7.0 (10*) Villanova entered the NCAA Tournament having lost 3 of their last 4 games. That funk coincided with them losing senior starting point guard Conor Gillaspie to a season ending knee injury during a 73-61 loss at Butler on 2/28. The Wildcats also had favorable matchups in the first 2 rounds against #12 seed Winthrop and #13 seed North Texas. Villanova will be facing a much different animal on Saturday in #1 seed Baylor (24-2). The Bears began the season 18-0 before COVID protocols shut them down for 23 days. When returning they were unimpressive in their first 2 games before gradually returning to form. Anything short of a national championship with this loaded roster would be considered a failure in Waco. This team seems to be more than capable of living up to those expectations and Saturday will be a statement game for them in that regard. Since the 1993 NCAA Tournament, any #1 seed playing in a “Sweet 16” game that’s favorite of 3.5 to 9.5, coming off a favorite ATS cover, and they’re facing a #5 seed or higher with a win percentage of .687 or better, and that underdog is coming off ATS covers in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those #1 seeds going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was by a decisive 14.9 points per game. Bet on Baylor minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-26-21 | Heat v. Hornets +1 | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
Miami @ Charlotte 8:05 PM ET Game# 523-524 Play On: Charlotte +1.0 (10*) The Miami Heat have gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 and that includes their previous 4 being at home. That has dropped their season record to a disappointing 22-23 (.489) and especially so when considering they made it to the NBA Finals last season. The Charlotte Hornets have won 7 of their last 8 including its previous 4 on their home floor. Furthermore, Charlotte is coming off road wins of 100-97 at San Antonio and 122-97 over Houston during their previous 2 contests. The Hornets enter today with a somewhat respectable 22-21 (.511) record. Any NBA home team with a win percentage of .511 or better that’s playing after Game 14 of the season, and they’re coming off back-to-back road wins while scoring 121 points or more during its previous contest, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .492 or worse and they’re coming off 5 consecutive losses, resulted in those teams going 24-0 straight up since the start of the 2001-2002 season. Considering the current point-spread, this NBA straight up betting angle takes on added significance. Bet on Charlotte for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-22-21 | Maryland v. Alabama -5.5 | Top | 77-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
Maryland vs. Alabama 8:45 PM ET Game# 831-832 Play On: Alabama -5.5 (10*) Alabama is coming off a 68-55 win over Iona on Saturday but failed to cover as a 16.5-point favorite. Maryland was a 63-54 winner on Saturday over Connecticut and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. This sets up an NCAA Tournament against-the-spread betting angle that has remained unbeaten since 1990 and is displayed below. Any NCAA Tournament 2nd Round favorite of 15.0-points (Alabama) or less that’s coming off a double-digit win but failed to cover as a favorite of 15.0-points or greater, versus an opponent (Maryland) off a straight up underdog win by 5-points or more, resulted in those favorites going 18-0 ATS since 1990. Those 15 favorites won by a decisive margin of 17.9 points per game. Bet on Alabama minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-21-21 | Wisconsin v. Baylor -6 | Top | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
Wisconsin vs. Baylor 2:40 PM ET Game# 801-802 Play On: Baylor -6.0 (10*) #1 seed Baylor is coming off an 85-62 win over Hartford in Round 1. That win improved their season record to 23-2 (.920). Wisconsin is coming off an 85-62 Round 1 blowout win over North Carolina in a game they closed as a 2.0-point underdog. The Badgers enter this Round 2 matchup with a modest 15-9 (.600) season record. This data leads to a terrific NCAA Tournament betting angle which is displayed below. Any NCAA Tourney #1 or #2 seed with a win percentage of .920 or less that’s playing in a 2nd round game, and they’re a favorite of 6.0 or greater, versus an opponent coming off a straight up underdog win by 12 points or more in the first round, and they have a win percentage of .812 or less, resulted in those top 2 seeds going 16-1 ATS (94.2%) since 1990. They outscored those 17 lower seeds by a substantial average of 19.8 points per game. |
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03-14-21 | Heat -7.5 v. Magic | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Miami @ Orlando 7:05 PM ET Game# 563-564 Play On: Miami -7.5 (10*) This Orlando team has scored fewer than 100 points in 15 of their 38 games this season. That’s not good news for Magic backers since Miami has allowed 94 points or less in each of its previous 4 games. As a matter of fact, the Heat have won 9 of their last 10 games and allowed fewer than 100 points on 6 of those occasions. When Orlando scored less than 100 as an underdog, they have gone an abysmal 0-11 ATS this season and lost by a mammoth 24.8 points per game. Orlando scored 77 points in their previous game which resulted in a loss at San Antonio. Since the start of last season, Orlando is 0-7 ATS as a home underdog following a game in which they scored less than 100 points. The Magic lost those 7 contests by 17.8 points per game. There’s a good chance that Orlando will be without 5 of their 6 top scorers today for a variety of reasons. Thus, the reason for the sizable number the road favorite will be asked to cover. Bet on Miami minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-13-21 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State -4 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State 8:30 PM ET Game# 625-626 Play On: Florida State -4.0 (10*) Florida State will have plenty of motivation after squandering a chance to with the ACC regular season title by being upset at Notre Dame in their final game. The Seminoles will also be out to avenge a 76-65 loss at Georgia Tech the last times these teams squared off. Florida State won their only ACC Conference Tournament championship in 2012. They will be facing a Georgia Tech team on a 7-game win streak. However, the Yellowjackets only need to win 1 game to reach the ACC Finals after Virginia needed to bow out in their scheduled semifinal game due to COVID protocols. This is a textbook case of one team just being happy to be here (Georgia Tech) versus an opponent (Florida) which is very hungry to receive top billing. Bet on Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-12-21 | Missouri v. Arkansas -5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
Missouri vs. Arkansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 831-832 Play On: Arkansas -5.0 (10*) Missouri got off to a fast 13-3 start to the season and were ranked in the Top 25 for several weeks. However, since that time the Tigers lost 5 of its next 8 games leading up to today. The Tigers narrowly escaped in a 3-point win over Georgia yesterday. Missouri has gone 0-6 SU&ATS the over the past 2 seasons following a win by 3 points or fewer. Arkansas comes into this SEC Tournament quarterfinal matchup on a red-hot 8 games winning streak. The Razorbacks are also an extremely profitable 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as a favorite of 9.5 or less and they won by 15.3 points per game. Bet on Arkansas plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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03-11-21 | Suns -4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 127-121 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
Phoenix @ Portland 10:05 PM ET Game# 525-526 Play On: Phoenix -4.5 (10*) Both teams entered the all-star break on a high note with Portland winning 3 straight games and Phoenix 4 in a row. However, the Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 this season as a road favorite and won by a decisive margin of 19.2 points per game. Furthermore, Phoenix is coming off an 120-102 win over Golden State as a 13.0-point chalk in their previous game. Since the start of last season, Phoenix has gone 12-0 ATS on the road following a win by 10 points or more, and they outscored those 12 opponents by an average of 10.1 points per game. Additionally, the last time these teams met was on 2/22 and Phoenix came away with a lopsided 132-100 win. Any NBA road favorite that’s coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite, and they’re facing an opponent playing with same season revenge stemming from a loss by 30 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going 29-7 ATS (80.6%) since 1996. Those 36 road favorites outscored their opponents by an average of 13.7 points per game. Bet on Phoenix minus the points as a 5* wager. |
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03-10-21 | Duke -2 v. Louisville | Top | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
Duke vs. Louisville 6:30 PM ET Game# 611-612 Play On: Duke -2.0 (10*) If there was ever a trap play in this year’s conference tournament action, then this is it. Louisville is the higher seed with a better record and beat Duke twice already this season. Yet, they find themselves as the current underdog in this matchup. Taking the underdog would seem logical right? Not so fast my fellow sports bettors. It’s rarely ever that simple or easy when it comes to sports betting. If it looks to good to be true, then more times than not it is. Throughout their previous 10 games Duke has averaged 78.9 points scored per contest and shot 49.5% from the field. Conversely, Louisville shot a combined 39.3% during their previous 5 games played. This extremely young Blue Devils team makes a statement in this one. Bet on Duke for a 5* wager. |