Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-21 | UAB v. North Texas -5.5 | Top | 65-51 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS These teams are jockeying for position in Conference USA’s West Division. Though they have different records, UAB and North Texas are technically tied for second in the division, one game behind LA Tech (whose regular season is done). So if either team sweeps this weekend (they play again tomorrow), then they move into a first place tie. Adding to the level of motivation here is the fact both teams are off losses. They’d each been hot prior to suffering those defeats. UAB was the victim of some hot shooting against UTEP last Saturday as they gave up 96 points. The loss dropped the Blazers to 3-4 SU L7 games after they’d won six in a row. North Texas lost by 1 at Marshall on Saturday, but still covered and is on a 4-game ATS win streak and as well as 8-2 SU L10 games. We’re siding with the home team tonight. It’s not just that the Mean Green have an 8-1 SU record here in Denton. They are winning by an average of 22.6 points/game! UAB is not a good three-point shooting team while North Texas shoots an incredible 44.6% from behind the arc at home. Lay the short number! Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA |
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03-04-21 | Texas v. Oklahoma UNDER 143 | Top | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This entire three-game package has almost exclusively featured Big 12 teams and we’ve got two in the top 20 here. Oklahoma, who at one point this season defeated three straight top 10 teams, is limping into the regular season finale. The Sooners have dropped three in a row including two straight to rival Oklahoma State. It was 79-75 in Stillwater Monday as they let the Cowboys shoot 52.9% from the field. Both losses to the Pokes were by four points. Now they face a Texas team that’s off a 14-point win over Iowa State on Tuesday. The Longhorns also beat Kansas last week, which we know is impressive. The first time these teams played, the game went way Over the total (OU won 80-79 in Austin). We look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring though. Both teams allow a pretty low field goal percentage for the year. Texas was held to 59 points by Texas Tech last Saturday. Play on UNDER AAA |
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03-04-21 | UTEP v. Kansas -18 | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas floundered a bit in January and as a result took a rare tumble out of the Top 25. But by punctuating a 7-2 February with a win over Baylor, there is no denying that Bill Self’s team is now peaking at the right time. The number of points per possession they’ve allowed over the last five games is the best defensive stretch by any team this year against “high-major teams.” Strangely, KU will close its regular season with a non-conference game against UTEP. The Miners probably regret adding this game to the schedule as they’ve got little chance of winning. While they’ve won four-straight Conference USA games, Florida International and Charlotte are not in the same class as Kansas. Having run the Big 12 gauntlet, this will be the easiest opponent the Jayhawks have played in a LONG time. UTEP isn’t a good road team. Earlier in the year, they lost by 30 at North Texas. Yikes. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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03-04-21 | Iowa State +17 v. Texas Tech | Top | 54-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA STATE Texas Tech has seemingly put a three-game losing streak behind them. The Red Raiders have gone 2-0 over the last five days, beating Texas 68-59 and TCU 69-49. They covered the spread in both of those wins and now are ranked #18 in the country. They’ve got a big game on deck, at Baylor on Sunday. But first they’ve got to round out the home portion of the schedule as Iowa State pays a visit to Lubbock tonight. It has been a tough year for the team from Ames. They have not won a single Big 12 game all season (0-16!) and haven’t tasted victory since before Christmas. But they’ve been close many times. They only lost by five at Baylor on Feb 23 and then by four against TCU on Saturday. A game vs. Texas on Tuesday was a 14-point loss. Since the beginning of February, half of the Cyclones' losses have been by seven points or fewer. So they are competing. We expect them to compete tonight in what should be a “flat spot” for a Texas Tech team that’s only 5-10 ATS in Big 12 games. Play on IOWA STATE AAA |
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03-03-21 | Clemson +2.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 54-64 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON This will be Syracuse’s final regular season game. Clemson has one more, at home vs Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Tigers are on a five-game win streak, one of those coming against Syracuse as they beat them 78-61 as a three-point favorite in Death Valley on Feb 6th. The team’s last two wins have come against the bottom teams in the ACC, Wake Forest and Miami. They looked especially impressive against Wake, on the road, winning that one 60-39. Clemson continues to be one of the top defensive teams in the country, ranking 11th in efficiency. Syracuse just outlasted North Carolina 72-70 on Monday, but they are at a disadvantage here playing their second game in three days. Clemson last played Saturday. In the first half of the first meeting, Syracuse made only three field goals. So they are familiar with the Tigers’ defensive prowess. The Carrier Dome will not be enough for the Orange to overcome a tough opponent today. They are just 2-5 ATS this season coming off an ACC win. Clemson wants that double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Play on CLEMSON AAA |
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03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Within one week, Michigan State pulled three consecutive upsets, two of them coming against top 5 teams (Ohio St, Illinois). However, the schedule finally appeared to catch up with them on Sunday when they fell behind Maryland 11-0 on their way to a 73-55 road loss. The Spartans have largely been overrated by the oddsmakers much of the season. They are 7-16 ATS and that record was obviously a lot worse before the three straight upsets. The first of the three upsets was not against a top 5 team, it was against Indiana. Sparty won that game in Bloomington 78-71 as a 6.5-point underdog. But they are not an underdog this time. This is a problem because as a favorite, MSU is a disastrous 2-11 ATS. Just how much the line has shifted for this rematch is a bit perplexing to us. Indiana badly needs this win to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They’ve lost three in a row and their second leading scorer is out. So that’s probably why the home team is favored in this one. But we’ve still got the Hoosiers rated as the better team and home court advantage doesn’t mean all that much. Grab the points. Play on INDIANA AAA |
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03-02-21 | Baylor -4 v. West Virginia | Top | 94-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BAYLOR For the first time all year, we’ve got Baylor coming off a loss. The Bears went down at Kansas on Saturday, losing 71-58 as a 4.5 point favorite. It was only their second game since a 21-day absence due to COVID. Quite frankly, the #3 ranked team in the country has not looked good in either game. They could barely beat the last place team in the Big 12, Iowa State, in the first game back. Tonight they have to head to Morgantown to face West Virginia, who is ranked #6 in the latest AP Poll. We think it was probably unfair to drop Baylor a spot based on one loss, though that move was pretty predictable. West Virginia is good, but we just don’t think they are the sixth best team in the country. They are 0-3 vs. top five opponents this season. They did win by 22 on Saturday, but that was vs. Kansas State. Baylor had its worst offensive game of the season against Kansas and was outrebounded pretty badly as well. But we expect the shots to start falling again and them to resemble the team that looked so dominant pre-layoff. Play on BAYLOR AAA |
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03-01-21 | North Carolina -2 v. Syracuse | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNC North Carolina invades the Carrier Dome Monday night, looking to build off its impressive upset of #11 Florida State over the weekend. Now the Tar Heels have struggled on their travels this season, failing to cover seven of nine games while winning just three straight up. But Syracuse is reeling. The Orange dropped two road games last week and allowed 169 points to Duke and Georgia Tech. They had their doors blown off in the Duke game as they trailed 52-34 at halftime. They allowed another 50-point half Saturday in Atlanta, though this time it was the second. We know UNC can score (82.3 PPG L4) and they should have no problem doing so tonight. It was an 81-75 win for the Tar Heels when these teams played in Chapel Hill on January 12th, even though it was a poor shooting night. This is a team that probably deserves to finish in the top four in the ACC. We see their rebounding edge as the difference maker tonight. Play on NORTH CAROLINA AAA |
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02-28-21 | Iowa +4.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 73-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA This is some tough scheduling for Iowa, who just had to go to Michigan (lost 79-57) and now must travel to face another Top 10 opponent, Ohio State. But let’s not forget the fact that the Hawkeyes are a Top 10 team themselves despite being only 5-5 their last 10 games. Ohio State is not just off one loss, but two, as they lost to Michigan last Sunday and then Michigan State on Thursday. This is a revenge game for Iowa as they lost by four at home to the Buckeyes last month. Both teams are dealing with injuries, so look for Iowa to lean heavily on Player of the Year candidate Luke Garza, who averages 24.3 points/game. He had only 16 against Michigan on what was a bad shooting night for the Naismith Finalist. He’ll bounce back here. OSU is a better matchup for Iowa than most other Big 10 teams. Neither of these two are all that great defensively, which should play right into the hands of the Hawkeyes, who are top five in the country in scoring. They did lead at the half in the first meeting before letting things slip away. Not this time. Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-28-21 | Memphis -4.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 80-74 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS While it may be “too little, too late” (to get into the NCAA Tournament), Memphis is making a late run at things. Penny Hardaway’s team has won seven of its last eight (only loss by 2 points) and four straight to get to 13-6 on the year. The Tigers are also 7-1 ATS their last eight after being 0-7 ATS their previous seven games. Today they are locking horns with Cincinnati, who has won six of its last seven. So we’ve got two relatively “hot” teams here, yet the one playing on the road is the favorite. That should tell you “all you need to know” about this one. The Bearcats are 0-9 ATS their last nine Sunday games including a 38-point loss at Houston last week. Before they beat Tulane 91-71 on Friday, Cincy’s previous five wins were all by three points or less, so they’ve been lucky. Memphis is #2 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency as it is holding opponents to 26.6% shooting - for the year - on three-point attempts. The Bearcats third leading scorer David DeJulius just opted out for the rest of the season. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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02-27-21 | Alabama -6 v. Mississippi State | Top | 64-59 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ALABAMA Alabama is off a loss here. While no team ever WANTS to be in that situation, it always seems to motivate the Crimson Tide. They’ve yet to lose back to back times this season. While the last time they found themselves off a defeat, they managed to only win by three (at South Carolina), we think they’ll do better today at Miss State. The Tide beat this team by eight in Tuscaloosa earlier this year. Miss State has turned in two straight wins, but they are just 5-6 SU L11 games and have basically been playing the bottom of the SEC recently. Bama is at the top and today is their second chance to clinch the regular season title outright. They failed Wednesday at Arkansas, but that was a hot team they were facing there. Still, the Tide did lead by six in the second half before falling apart down the stretch and committing a ton of fouls. A -35 disadvantage at the charity stripe certainly helps explain a 13-point loss. Miss State is 1-6 ATS off its previous seven straight up wins. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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02-27-21 | LSU v. Arkansas -4.5 | Top | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARKANSAS Unquestionably, Arkansas is the hottest team in the SEC right now. The Razorbacks have won their last eight conference games and now sit in second place, 2.5 games back of the team they just beat, Alabama. It was 81-66 on Wednesday here in Fayetteville, a game where we cashed the Under. Though the Under did hit (thanks to Bama scoring only 28 points in the second half), it was the third time in the last four games where the Hogs finished with more than 80 points. Today is a legit revenge game for them as they lost down in Baton Rouge to LSU 92-76 last month. Though they too can score, LSU has been having major defensive issues since they beat Arkansas. In seven of the nine games since, they’ve allowed at least 76 points. In three of the last four, they allowed 80 or more. They sit at 153rd in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among the top 60 teams in the country in the KenPom ratings. The Tigers just lost 91-78 at Georgia on Tuesday and this certainly does not feel like the game where they’ll get the defensive issues fixed. Arkansas is 12-4 ATS as a favorite. Plato n ARKANSAS AAA |
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02-26-21 | UL - Lafayette +2 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 66-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UL Lafayette Arkansas Little Rock shouldn’t be favored here as they’ve lost six in a row while also going 0-6 ATS. Louisiana has the most efficient offense in the Sun Belt Conference and has averaged 82 points while winning its last two games. Arkansas Little Rock’s combination of shooting the ball so poorly from behind the three-point line (31.8% for the year) and turning it over too much (23 times last game) is really starting to catch up with them. They are 3-11 ATS as a favorite this year (5-15 ATS overall), so again we just don’t get this line even if the game is being played in Little Rock. Louisiana is 5-2 ATS as an underdog. When the teams met twice earlier in the year in Lafayette, each won once. But Arkansas Little Rock’s win came in overtime and saw them have to come back from a significant deficit. Take the hotter team in this one. Play on LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE AAA |
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02-25-21 | USC v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 62-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado hosts USC tonight in a crucial clash as it tries to stay alive in the Pac 12 race. Saturday saw the Buffaloes prevail 61-57 against Oregon State. While it was an ATS loss, they’re probably just happy to be done with a four-game road trip that saw them go just 2-2 straight up. Now CU gets to play a home game for the first time in 17 days. The last one was a 78-49 win (over Oregon State) and the Buffaloes are 8-1 in Boulder this year, scoring 80.1 points/game while allowing an average of only 61.4. They host USC, who happens to be in first place in the conference. But Colorado already beat the Trojans once this year, 72-62 as a 3.5-point underdog, and that was obviously out in Southern California. Even more impressive is the fact the Buffaloes have won five in a row over the Trojans. They’re 4-1 ATS in those five wins as well. Despite being unranked Colorado is the favorite here. USC is #19 in the polls. Too many bettors get “caught up” in what the pollsters have to say. But we believe Colorado is the better team in this matchup. They showed it once and are certainly capable of showing it again at home. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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02-25-21 | Western Kentucky v. Houston -11.5 | Top | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON It was last Thursday when we decided to fade Houston at Wichita State and sure enough the 6th ranked (at the time) Cougars were upset there, losing 68-63. They had a nice bounce back from that game though, clobbering Cincinnati on Sunday by the score of 90-52. So they come into tonight’s game with Western Kentucky ranked #12 in the nation. It’s notable that this is another home game. All three times the Cougars have lost this season, it has been on the road. They are 12-0 at home. They average 81.0 points/game here and give up only 54.2. The more interesting thing about this matchup is that it’s a rare non-conference game late in the regular season. It’s the reality of the season we’re living in as WKU is trying to add games to its schedule to make up for all the cancellations. While they come in riding a six-game win streak, the Hilltoppers have not faced a team anywhere near as good as Houston in Conference USA. They’ve been off for 12 days and played just two games - both vs. Rice - in the month of February. We’d say they are “ill-prepared” to deal with this massive jump up in class. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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02-24-21 | Alabama v. Arkansas UNDER 156.5 | Top | 66-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER With both Missouri and Tennessee faltering in recent weeks, might we be looking at the SEC’s two premier teams here? Alabama certainly is in that discussion as they lead the conference with a 13-1 SU record (18-5 overall). The Crimson Tide are deservedly ranked #6 in the country right now, although two of their last three wins have come by four points or less. Now they head to Arkansas, who has won its last seven SEC games and has revenge on the mind Wednesday night. When these teams played in Tuscaloosa last month, the Tide ripped the Razorbacks 90-59. It was over in the first half as Bama took a 42-19 lead into the break. Things are obviously going to be a lot more competitive tonight in Fayetteville. Arkansas is also well rested as they haven’t played in over a week. The expectation is that these teams are going to put up a lot of points, however the Razorbacks are giving up only 63.1 points/game at home. That’ll not only make this one more competitive than last night, but also lower scoring. The fact that Alabama is #2 in defensive efficiency can’t be discounted either. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-24-21 | Florida State -11 v. Miami-FL | Top | 88-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 10* on FLORIDA STATE So it’s Florida State that’s battling Virginia for that top spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Seminoles have played three fewer games than the Cavaliers and are ahead on percentage points with a 9-2 SU league record. They’re up to #11 in the rankings after winning not just three in a row, but also eight of the last nine games. Their ATS record in those nine games is a solid 6-2-1. Five of the wins during that time have been by at least 13 points and one of the most lopsided was 81-59 at Miami, who the Noles face again on Wednesday. The Hurricanes are having a terrible 2020-21 season as they’ve lost seven of eight. The only win was by two against Duke. This slide is a direct result of being one of the most short-handed teams in the country right now. Only five scholarship players finished the last game, which was a 27-point home loss to Georgia Tech. They trailed by 30 at halftime. FSU is one of the deepest teams in the country and got 33 points from its bench in Saturday’s win over Pitt. They should have zero difficulty blowing out Miami for a second time this year. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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02-24-21 | NC State v. Virginia -11.5 | Top | 68-61 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VIRGINIA Virginia got upset by Duke over the weekend and has dropped to #15 in the country. But an ACC regular season crown is still in play for the Hoos and we think they’ll bounce back tonight in a major way. They face North Carolina State, who is really no match. Compounding problems for the Wolfpack is that this is their third straight away game. While they’ve won the first two, those wins came against Pitt and Wake Forest, who are two of the conference’s lesser teams. Virginia is 10-0 at home and those 10 wins are by 16.8 points per game. The Cavaliers aren’t just off one loss here, they’ve lost two straight as they also fell at Florida State last Monday. They were 15-3 SU before that and we see a “shut down” defensive effort coming tonight. Virginia is top seven in the country in points/game allowed and only gives up 57.2 here at home. They already won in Raleigh this season and held NC State to just 57 in that game. Play on VIRGINIA AAA |
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02-23-21 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff v. Prairie View A&M -16.5 | Top | 56-72 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M Prairie View A&M is one of two teams with a 7-0 record in SWAC play, Jackson State being the other. The Panthers have a shot to reclaim first place all for themselves tonight when they host conference lightweight Arkansas Pine Bluff. This should be an easy win for the Panthers, who already defeated Arkansas Pine Bluff by 17 on the road earlier in the season. Arkansas Pine Bluff has now lost nine in a row and is coming off two straight games that they could have won (lost by a total of three points). The Golden Lions may very well be spent and it’s going to take a lot to compete Tuesday night. Our guess is that they simply don’t have enough “left in the tank,” even though they’ve been off for 10 days. They lost in OT to Southern and the game before that they blew a sizable second half lead at Alabama A&M. Prairie View A&M is on fire right now as not only are they 7-0 straight up vs. conference opponents, they are also 7-0 against the spread! The seven wins have been by an average of 17.7 points/game. Arkansas Pine Bluff is getting outscored by 24.5 points/game on the road where it is 1-14. Play on PRAIRIE VIEW A&M AAA |
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02-22-21 | Alabama A&M -1 v. Alcorn State | Top | 52-65 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Alabama A&M We’re going DEEP into tonight’s College card to uncover a winner. This is the SWAC, a league where two teams have no conference losses. These are neither of those two teams. Alabama A&M is 6-3 this season (4-3 in conference), but coming off a 72-58 loss at Alabama State nine days ago. Nine days ago is also the last time Alcorn State played, although they won 70-56 against Miss Valley State and snapped a three-game losing streak. Miss Valley State is a terrible team, maybe the worst in the country. They account for half of Alcorn State’s four victories this year and another was against Arkansas Pine-Bluff, the second worst team in the SWAC. We relish this opportunity to go against the Braves here. Play on Alabama A&M AAA |
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02-21-21 | Valparaiso +1 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
This is a *10* on VALPO Not a lot of scoring or winning from either of these two MVC sides recently. But Valparaiso did just turn in an impressive effort in defeat, losing by just two at first place Loyola Chicago. While they’ve got just two wins in the last eight games, two of the Crusaders' six losses have been by three points or fewer. They’re a game up on Southern Illinois, who has just three wins in its last 12 games and two of those were by a total of three points. So we’ll ride the better team Sunday as they should build off that impressive showing against Loyola. Additionally, Valpo performed quite well against the league’s other top team, Drake, beating them by 17 points back on Super Bowl Sunday after only losing by three the previous day. Southern Illinois, on the other hand, has suffered three double digit losses in the past 11 days. SIU has been missing its leading scorer for almost two months, which helps explain the downturn. They’ve averaged only 55 points the last four games. Play on VALPARAISO AAA |
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02-21-21 | Michigan -1 v. Ohio State | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MICHIGAN These rival schools did not get a chance to meet on the football field in the fall. But I think we all know how that would have gone. Now it’s time for the basketball programs to collide and while maybe it’s not as big of a deal nationally, the matchup itself is SO MUCH better. These are two of the top four teams in the country (per the polls) meeting Sunday in Columbus. Michigan has returned from its near three-week pause to win back to back games, 67-59 over Wisconsin and 71-64 over Rutgers. The Wolverines only have one loss all season and that was at Minnesota last month. Ohio State being near the top of the rankings is a bit more surprising. The Buckeyes have won at Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa, which is very impressive. They too lost at Minnesota, but also have three other defeats, two vs. Purdue and one at Northwestern. We like Michigan in this one. They are the only team besides Gonzaga and Baylor (both undefeated) to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Ohio State ranks only 62nd in defensive efficiency. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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02-20-21 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Murray State -16.5 | Top | 62-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MURRAY STATE Everyone is chasing Belmont in the Ohio Valley and neither of these teams will be catching the Bruins, who are 17-0 in conference play. SIU Edwardsville is 8-13 overall and 6-9 vs the OVC. They’ve lost three in a row, all in a blowout fashion. The three losses have been by a combined 71 points, all by 20 or more and the worst was at home, 86-57 vs. the team they visit today, Murray State. The Racers are 9-8 vs. the OVC and 12-10 overall. That’s a disappointing mark for a squad that’s been favored in the vast majority of its games. Thursday was an ugly 68-59 home loss at the hands of Eastern Illinois. Murray State was a 15-point favorite in that one and the loss snapped a four-game run where every win was by 12 or more points. At home, the Racers are averaging 83.6 points/game while giving up only 65.2. SIU Edwardsville just does not rise up as a big underdog. They’re 0-3 ATS as a road dog of 12.5 or more and 4-12 ATS their last 16. Play on MURRAY STATE AAA |
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02-20-21 | Texas Tech +1.5 v. Kansas | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEX TECH We believe Texas Tech is the better team here and aren’t afraid of them having to go to Lawrence. While it’s a 1-15 SU and 3-13 ATS run here for the Red Raiders, this isn’t your typical season when it comes to home court advantage. Kansas has won and covered its last four games, but the last three have seen them take on Iowa State twice and Kansas State. Those are easily the two worst teams the Big 12 has to offer. This is also a revenge game for Texas Tech as they were beaten 58-57 by KU in Lubbock back in December. It was a horrible shooting night for the Red Raiders, who finished at just 32.3%. They have had LOTS of time to prepare for this rematch as the last time they played was 11 days ago vs. West Virginia. That was another loss, so you can bet there will be no shortage of motivation here. Just not convinced that Kansas is all that good this year. Yes, they beat Texas Tech and have strung together four straight wins. But we expect the Red Raiders to shoot better than they did in the first meeting and they won’t be as sloppy as recent Jayhawks’ opponents either. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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02-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama -14.5 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ALABAMA Not sure at all why this line has come DOWN. Alabama, who just extended the contract of coach Nate Oats through the 2026-27 season, is the best team in the SEC this season. Vanderbilt is almost certainly the worst. We realize Vandy has been a little more competitive of late, going 5-0-1 ATS its last six games, but Bama won by 33 last Saturday and has had an entire week off as Thursday’s game vs. Texas A&M was postponed due to weather. The Crimson Tide are 10-1 in Tuscaloosa this season, winning by about 16 points per game. Five players were in double figures as they routed Georgia 115-82 last Saturday. Four of them average at least 10 PPG for the season. But while the Tide can score, it’s their defense that is largely responsible for them being ranked #8 in the country. They are second nationally in defensive efficiency and allow just 28.5% shooting from 3-point range, which is 9th best. The Commodores are severely outmatched in this one - at both ends of the floor. Alabama is 25-12 ATS after a game where it scored 80 or more points. Play on ALABAMA AAA |
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02-19-21 | California Baptist v. Grand Canyon -11 | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GRAND CANYON Grand Canyon, who is a PERFECT 6-0 in the WAC, should have no problem staying unbeaten in conference play tonight as they are set to host Cal Baptist for the first of two games this weekend. The Antelopes haven’t played a single game in February, but their 8-1 home record speaks for itself. In those nine games, they have scored 25 more points/game than they have allowed. They are really solid at both ends of the floor. Can’t say the same for Cal Baptist, who is allowing 85 points/game when they hit the road. They were torched for 97 in their last road game, which was at New Mexico State. Last weekend saw the Lancers split a couple home games with Sacramento State despite being favored in both. All six Grand Canyon home games that have had a line attached, they have covered. Cal Baptist has just one road victory and is not a threat to win here. Play on GRAND CANYON AAA |
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02-19-21 | South Dakota State v. North Dakota State +1.5 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA STATE North Dakota State is coming off a loss, their second in the last three games. Both losses saw them come into the game favored. The Bison are still tied for the Summit League lead at 9-3 mind you, and haven’t played in nearly two weeks. It was a subpar effort defensively the last time we saw them, which is rare given they allow only 63.9 points/game at home. They’ll be tested here by a South Dakota State team that is averaging more than 80 points/game. This rivalry has been closely contested the last couple seasons with the last four meetings decided by a total of 10 points. We think it’s a real “steal” getting points with the home team. South Dakota State hasn’t been sharp defensively this year, at least on the road where they give up 77.3 points/game. As an underdog, North Dakota State is 4-1 ATS this year. They are also 2-0 ATS playing with seven or more days rest. Play on NORTH DAKOTA STATE AAA |
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02-18-21 | BYU -5.5 v. Pacific | Top | 80-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BYU BYU already holds a win over Pacific this season. They beat them 95-87 in Provo last month. The 11.5-point spread proved too high to cover though as it was a double overtime game. That’s one of several reasons why the spread is shorter the second time around. You’ve also got to factor in the change in home court “advantage” (though Pacific doesn’t exactly have a strong one and this is a unique time in sports where being at home matters less) and that BYU lost its last game. But that loss was to #1 Gonzaga, so again we’re not going to go about penalizing the Cougars. They are definitely the better team here and should win by at least the same margin they did last time vs. Pacific, only this time in regulation. Pacific has dropped five of its previous six games and allowed 80 or more points in all five losses. The one win came against a dreadful Portland team. BYU has had 10 days to prepare since the loss to Gonzaga as their last two games got cancelled. They are simply stronger than Pacific at both ends of the floor and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight road games. Play on BYU AAA |
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02-18-21 | Houston v. Wichita State +7.5 | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WICHITA STATE #6 Houston rolls into Wichita Thursday night to face a team they’ve already beaten by seven earlier in the year. But that was at home and Wichita State led that game by six points at half. It took a furious second half rally (16-0 run) from the Cougars to win that game. While three back in the win column, the Shockers have the same number of conference losses (2) as Houston. So a win here could make the conference race very interesting down the stretch. WSU has won nine straight home games vs. AAC opponents and four in a row overall. All four wins were close and though they haven’t covered a spread in a game since January 13th (0-5 ATS L5), we don’t need to worry about winning by any kind of margin tonight. Both teams have dealt with multiple postponements recently and thus are coming off eight-day layoffs. With the Shockers’ strong home record, we think they are a little underrated here, likely due to the 0-5 ATS mark their last five games. They’ve been pretty good as an underdog, including 7-3-1 ATS L11 times at home. Play on WICHITA STATE AAA |
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02-17-21 | Valparaiso v. Loyola-Chicago -20.5 | Top | 52-54 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Loyola Chicago Loyola Chicago remains ranked even after splitting two games vs. Drake over the weekend. They are also still in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference with a 13-2 record as they are two up on Drake in the win column. Walking away with a split against the second best team in the league is not all that bad when you think about it, especially since the loss was in overtime and both games were on the road. At home, the Ramblers are a perfect 10-0 this season. Tonight they host a Valparaiso team that simply cannot hang with them. Valpo just lost by 14 at Northern Iowa Sunday and this is their third straight game on the road (they did win at N Iowa Sat). The road has seen the Crusaders average just 62.3 points/game this year. They lost twice at Evansville, but most concerning of all is what happened the last time they faced Loyola. At home, they were destroyed 75-39. The game was never close as Loyola led 37-16 at halftime. When Valpo loses, it’s often by double digits. Earlier this month, they fell by 24 at home to Bradley. This one will get ugly in a hurry. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO AAA |
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02-17-21 | NC-Greensboro v. VMI +4.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VMI VMI is looking to play spoiler here and also win back to back games for the first time since a three-game win streak before Christmas. In conference play, it’s basically been “win one, lose one” for the Keydets by the KEY here is their perfect 8-0 ATS home record. They are 10-1 SU in games played here in Lexington City this season as opposed to 1-9 SU on the road. They have not gotten to play two straight at home since last month when they faced Wofford and The Citadel consecutively. It was then VMI did suffer its lone home defeat of the season. But it was by only two points to Wofford. The Keydets have four losses by three points or less this year, so their overall record could easily be a lot better. The team they are hosting tonight, UNC Greensboro, has won 9 of 10 and leads the SoCon with a 10-3 record. But tonight will be the second straight road game for the Spartans. The last time they were in this situation (last Monday), they lost at Furman. Saturday was a narrow escape for them as they won by only three at Mercer. Since VMI is so tough to beat at home, we will definitely take the points in this one. Play on VMI AAA |
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02-16-21 | Florida v. Arkansas -3.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARKANSAS Arkansas, now ranked (#24), will look for its fourth straight win Tuesday night as they host Florida. The Razorbacks had an impressive road win Saturday at #10 Missouri, a game that went to overtime. They also won in Kentucky last week, by a single point. Things were much easier the last time the Razorbacks played at home. They downed Mississippi State 61-45. That’s the kind of score we should expect here as the Hogs are 12-1 in Fayetteville this season. They are averaging 84.4 points at home while giving up only 63.1. Florida is playing its first game in nearly two weeks as they’ve had three postponements in February. Their season has been severely disrupted by COVID as there was another 2+ gap between games in December. There’s also the matter of Keyontae Johnson collapsing on the court due to a heart issue back in December. So the Gators have never truly been able to get into any kind of real “rhythm” this season. Arkansas is playing its best ball of the season right now and has won six straight SEC games. With Florida allowing 77 points/game on the road, the Razorbacks get our vote of confidence tonight. Florida lost at home to South Carolina the last time it played. Play on ARKANSAS AAA |
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02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State UNDER 129 | Top | 60-81 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is 10* on UNDER Florida State returned from a two-week break (COVID) to defeat Wake Forest 92-85 in overtime Saturday. That final margin of victory wasn’t nearly enough to cover the 13-point spread, but the Seminoles will take the win considering they trailed by two with five seconds left in regulation. They’d let a double digit lead slip away and nearly lost at home for the first time in over two years. Now it’s a Top 25 showdown with #9 Virginia, a team that has lost only one time in 2021. The last eight FSU games have all gone Over, but considering Virginia just held North Carolina to 48 points on Saturday, this one has a good chance of going “the other way.” Plus, the Under has hit 11 straight times when Virginia has visited Tallahassee! As always, Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are allowing just 58.8 points/game. They are 5-1 Under in road games. The 48-hour turnaround for both teams will probably result in below average shooting and FSU could again be without Balsa Koprivica. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-14-21 | Michigan +1.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 67-59 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MICHIGAN When Michigan played Wisconsin on January 12th, it was a 77-54 blowout in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines actually lost their next game, 75-57 at Minnesota, which is their ONLY loss this season. They then responded with a pair of victories, 87-63 against Maryland and 70-53 at Purdue. Then COVID hit. That win over Purdue was all the way back on January 22nd, so it’s been more than three weeks since the Wolverines took the floor. Will they be rusty? Maybe. But we don’t think enough has changed in three weeks for Wisconsin to completely reverse what happened the first time. The Badgers are just 3-3 their last six games and the wins have been against middle of the pack or bottom teams in the Big 10. They lost by double digits to both Ohio State and Illinois, two of the conference’s top tier teams. Michigan, ranked #3 in the entire country, is obviously in that top tier. They led by as many as 40 in the first game with Wisconsin. They’re at full strength. Don’t see them losing. Play on MICHIGAN AAA |
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02-13-21 | South Alabama v. Troy State +2 | Top | 58-51 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TROY In-state rivals meet for the second time this year as Troy hosts South Alabama. The Jaguars won the first time, 73-70, however it was the Trojans leaving with the cash as six-point underdogs. They are underdogs again here, but only slightly at home. That first meeting was Thursday, by the way. Troy may be at the bottom of the Sun Belt’s East Division, but they are really good at home with a 7-1 record and they are allowing 59.9 points/game. They’re just a much better team here plus they are 8-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss. When off a conference loss, the Trojans are 5-1 ATS this season. South Alabama has a losing road record and is just 2-5 ATS when playing with only one day of rest between games. The Jaguars have won five in a row, but the last four have all been decided by six points or less. It would seem they are due for a loss and Troy is going to be desperate to end a five-game losing streak in this rivalry. Play on TROY AAA |
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02-13-21 | Iowa v. Michigan State OVER 152 | Top | 88-58 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Iowa doesn’t have a problem scoring on anybody as they are third in the country with an 87.4 points/game scoring average. They’ve actually failed to hit that average in six straight games, which partly explains why they’re just 2-4 in that stretch. But the Hawkeyes did down Rutgers 79-66 earlier this week and now look to take care of a Michigan State team that is simply not among the elite in the Big 10 anymore, let alone among the elite in the country. The Spartans are a money-burning 4-13 ATS, although they have won two straight games for only the second time in two months. Those wins were against Penn State and Nebraska though, probably the conference’s two worst teams (Nebraska is definitely the worst). They won those games in part because the opponents were terrible shooting from three-point range, but that will almost assuredly not be the case today as Iowa is making 39 percent of its three-point shots. But the Hawkeyes have an issue in that they allow more than 80 points/game on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-13-21 | NC-Greensboro v. Mercer +1.5 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MERCER Mercer hosts the top team in the Southern Conference, UNC Greensboro, on Saturday. The Bears are looking to win their third in a row after two overtime victories against Samford earlier in the week. The first of those was a 2OT game, however Mercer hardly ever trailed in that game and never faced a deficit larger than three points. They did need to come from behind to win on the road Wednesday. But at home the Bears’ record is 7-2 and this is a team that can score (80.9 points/game at home), something you can’t always say about UNC Greensboro. The Spartans were able to earn a split with Furman earlier in the week, but scored only 49 points in the loss, which was on the road. That’s their only loss in the last nine games, but this team is not dominant and we don’t think they’re the best team in the SoCon even though they are in first place. These teams’ overall records aren’t all that different. The first time they played was closer than it looked as Mercer failed to make a basket in the final three minutes. Play on MERCER AAA |
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02-13-21 | TCU v. Texas -12 | Top | 55-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas may be on a 5-game ATS slide, but we still believe the Longhorns are one of the better teams in the entire country. After losing three straight times on the court, they finally got back into the win column Tuesday with an 80-77 win at Kansas State. That one was closer than it should have been as Texas made a season-high 13 three pointers. Kansas State hadn’t stayed within single digits of anybody in the Big 12 since January 2nd. Both of the ‘Horns’ wins since Jan 9 have come against Kansas State but two of the losses have been by a total of three points. That Shaka Smart’s team has lost three of four in Austin should have them motivated today. TCU has won two in a row, both by three points, but is one of the conference’s poorer teams. This is their first Big 12 win streak of any kind since starting 3-0 last year and they’d lost five in a row prior to the two wins. Leading scorer Mike Mills has been out with a non-COVID related illness. Play on TEXAS AAA |
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02-13-21 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -13 | Top | 85-92 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE So Florida State has been off for a couple weeks. The 17th ranked ‘Noles last played on 1/30 when they were upset 76-65 in Atlanta by Georgia Tech. So they should be ready to go here in Tallahassee vs. Wake Forest, who comes in with just a single road win on the year and a 3-8 ACC record. Things have gotten better recently for the Demon Deacons as those three ACC wins have come over the course of the last five games, plus they are 6-1 ATS L7. But they are outclassed here and playing their third consecutive road game. Earlier this week is when they picked up that lone road win, beating Boston College 69-65 as a 2.5-point favorite. Boston College is the last place team in the ACC this year. What are the chances Wake can win two in a row? Obviously, very small. Now FSU has a spread to worry about here, but they are 9-1 at home and winning by an average of 13.6 points/game already. They’ve won the last three times they’ve played Wake Forest, who could be shorthanded here. The Seminoles are 6-2 ATS in ACC play. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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02-12-21 | Oakland v. Robert Morris +1.5 | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ROBERT MORRIS Robert Morris’ first season in the Horizon League is not going all that well as the Colonials are just 2-9 in conference play. Last weekend was just brutal as they lost two overtime games to Youngstown State. Had they won one (or both), perhaps more people would be looking at them differently coming into this next game. But we’re cool with it. They should be able to defeat Oakland at home Friday. The Golden Grizzlies are coming off their own painful set of results last weekend as they lost twice to first place Cleveland State. Something to note is that three of Oakland’s eight wins this season have been over Detroit. They are just 5-15 otherwise. Two of the other five were against IPFW, who isn’t any good either. Now certainly we can’t call Robert Morris “good,” but with six of their nine Horizon League losses coming by six points or less, it’s fair to say they’ve been unlucky. They deserve a better record and should get the win here. Play on ROBERT MORRIS AAA |
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02-12-21 | Middle Tennessee v. Marshall OVER 143 | Top | 79-107 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER A couple games versus a pretty bad Charlotte team is what Middle Tennessee needed last weekend. The Blue Raiders had lost six in a row before that and five of the losses were by more than 10 points. But they defeated the 49ers 66-65 and 73-60, providing a brief glimmer of positivity in what has been a pretty awful season. At 10-5 on the year, Marshall is doing a lot better than MTSU, though they had some unscheduled breaks in January. They did play last weekend though and could only muster a split with Old Dominion despite being favored to win both games. The loss was by one point and the win was by 20. They should win big tonight. The game should also end up being high scoring. The Thundering Herd have scored more than 80 points in three consecutive games. They are basically averaging 80 per game for the entire season. Middle Tennessee does not score very much, but if they can reach 60 (doable!), then the Over is all but assured in this one. The Over is 4-0 the last four times MTSU has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss +0.5 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OLE MISS Missouri may be ranked #10 in the country coming into this game, but they are slight underdogs to Ole Miss. Now we were very happy to see the Tigers deliver a 68-65 upset of Alabama over the weekend. They were a big play for us in that game. But it was very concerning how they almost blew all of a 22-point lead and nearly lost, despite the opposition shooting very poorly. Speaking of poor shooting, Missouri hit only 3 of its 20 three-point shots in that game. They’ll take the win, their third in a row, but all of them have been by five points or less and were at home. This is the Tigers’ first time hitting the road since a loss to Auburn on January 26th. They venture into a gym where visitors are averaging only 59.7 points/game. So it’s likely to be another rough shooting night. Over the course of its last six games, Ole Miss has beaten all three teams that have beaten Missouri this season. They held Tennessee to only 50 points in a win here in Oxford last week. Then they went to Auburn and won a high-scoring game in overtime Saturday. Play on MISSISSIPPI AAA |
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02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech UNDER 140 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER These teams played two weeks ago with West Virginia winning 88-87 as a 2.5-point favorite. While it was a back and forth game, the O/U was never in doubt as the total for the game was 144.5 and the teams went way Over that. The total is even LOWER for tonight’s second meeting, which may be a surprise to some, but this is a matchup we had circled to play the Under all along. The number of total points scored in Morgantown should be viewed as an aberration. The teams went 21 of 41 on three-point attempts, which is way more production than the 13 of 39 average that they combine for on a per game basis this season. The likely significant decrease in 3-point marksmanship tonight should alone account for this game staying Under. But if you need more convincing, note that Texas Tech allows only 56.5 PPG at home. Five of their last seven games have been on the road, which is why we’ve been seeing some higher scoring games from them recently. But in the last home game, they held Oklahoma to only 52 points and that game had just 109 total points scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-08-21 | Gonzaga -10.5 v. BYU | Top | 82-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA BYU has scored 200 combined points in their last two games. They are getting double digits at home tonight. The question as to whom the Cougars are facing tonight can only have one answer: Gonzaga. The top ranked Zags are 18-0 and have beaten BYU already by 17 points. Actually that score is misleading. They led by as many as 32 in the second half. Gonzaga not only has the nation’s longest active win streak (22 games), but the last 15 have all been decided by double digits. Only one team (West Virginia) this season has been able to stay within 12 of them. After a less than stellar effort in the last game (still won by 18 over Pacific), look for the Zags to come out and make a statement Monday night. Saturday’s game vs. Santa Clara was postponed so that’s extra time they’ve had to stew over the fact they actually trailed Pacific at the half Thursday. BYU’s last five games have all been against Pacific, Pepperdine or Portland, all of whom are horrible and offer little in the way of preparation for what they’ll face here. With only one win by less than 12 points this year (and it was the third game), we will gladly lay the points with the #1 team in the country tonight. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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02-07-21 | Quinnipiac v. Fairfield +3.5 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FAIRFIELD It’s been awhile since we last saw either of these teams. It’s been a two-week absence for Quinnipiac since they defeated Niagara 78-69. For Fairfield, it’s been three weeks since they last played and upset Marist 55-52. Looking at the MAAC standings, you’ll find these two at the bottom. Quinnipiac has just two conference wins while Fairfield has three. Our side is technically in last with seven losses, but Quinnipiac has zero road wins this season and they are on the road today. The Bobcats have lost twice in true road games (both were at Monmouth) and are 0-2 in neutral court games. They are also 4-10 ATS their last 14 on the road. That Quinnipiac is laying points on the road here is very rare and would seem to make for a nice opportunity to fade. Though it’s been three weeks, Fairfield was excellent defensively in their last game as they’d allowed only 39 points with just over seven minutes remaining. The Stags are 20-8 ATS their last 28 games as a home underdog. Play on FAIRFIELD AAA |
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02-06-21 | Texas Tech -16 v. Kansas State | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH The Big 12 is so tough this year (six teams are in the top 25). So if you are one of those top teams, you’ve got to take full advantage when you're faced with one of the conference’s couple lightweights. That’s the situation #13 Texas Tech finds itself in today as they get set to take on Kansas State. The Red Raiders are only 5-4 SU vs. the rest of the Big 12, which has them in 6th. But you should expect them to move up the standings after today’s tilt in Manhattan. Kansas State is really bad as they’ve now lost nine in a row. Most of the games haven’t been close either as the Wildcats’ ATS record is 4-13 including 0-5 L5. They are 1-10 ATS at home. The last four Big 12 games for KSU have resulted in losses by 23, 48, 22 and 26 points. They did actually stay within 11 of Texas Tech last month in Lubbock. But that was before the “bottom dropped out” on the season. The Wildcats’ have the second most starts in the country by true freshman and injuries/COVID have really taken hold of the roster. The last five games have seen Kansas State average 53.6 points. Texas Tech should keep them around that number and cover easily. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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02-06-21 | Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago -20 | Top | 55-68 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOYOLA CHICAGO Two teams stand above the rest this year in the Missouri Valley. They are #25 Drake and Loyola Chicago. Though the former is ranked and undefeated, our view (and the view of most in the College Basketball community) is that Loyola is better. The Ramblers can prove that NEXT weekend when they’ll play two at Drake, but for now they get a pair of games vs. Evansville. This should be a guaranteed two wins this weekend for the Ramblers. It’s a big number Saturday, but we’ll lay it considering that Loyola is 12-3 ATS in all games this season, including 12-1 when favored and 6-0 at home. Last weekend, they won by 26 and 20 at Missouri State. They’re winning their home games by a margin of 28.5 points/game. None of their previous eight opponents have reached 60 points as this is one of the premier defensive teams in the country. That’s bad news for an Evansville squad averaging only 64 points on the road this season. The Purple Aces have just one road win and aren’t going to be competitive here. Play on LOYOLA CHICAGO AAA |
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02-06-21 | Alabama v. Missouri +3 | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
THIS IS AN 8* ON MISSOURI These are the two top teams in the SEC, but right now there’s a huge gap between Alabama and everybody else. The Crimson Tide moved to 10-0 in conference play with another convincing win against LSU earlier this week. Looking across the country, you’re not going to find many teams that have a 10-0 record in their conference. But this is a stiff test for Bama as they head to Missouri on Saturday. The Tigers just took care of Kentucky on Wednesday to move to 12-3 overall this season. While G Pickett got injured vs. Kentucky, the Tigers have four double digit scorers that can more than account for his possible absence. Remember that last weekend Alabama lost to an Oklahoma team that didn’t have its leading scorer. Missouri has lost just once at home this season and that was to Tennessee. Alabama was picked to finish 10th (in the SEC!) in the preseason poll and we don’t see them going undefeated. This looks to be their toughest remaining game. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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02-05-21 | UC-Davis v. CS-Northridge +2.5 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CS NORTHRIDGE Prior to the last two weeks, Cal Davis had gotten only four games in all season and all four were prior to December 5th. They are just 1-3 since returning to action and lost twice at home last weekend to UCSB. Therefore, it’s hard for us to believe they are laying points on the road here. Cal State Northridge is by no means a good team, but the Matadors have at least been playing regularly enough to have a rhythm coming into this Friday night matchup. They are 6-7 and off a 64-51 win at Cal Poly last Saturday. One thing to like about this team is that it doesn’t turn the ball over much. Their turnover rate is second lowest among Big West teams. Cal Davis has yet to cover as a favorite this year and the last time they laid points on the road, they lost by 20. Going back to last year, the Aggies are 0-4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. CS-Northridge is 6-2 ATS off a straight up win and the home team has captured the cash in four of the last five meetings. Play on CS NORTHRIDGE AAA |
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02-05-21 | Jacksonville +7.5 v. Bellarmine | Top | 56-71 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE Jacksonville has lost five in a row, however, four of those losses have come by six points or less. Tonight they try to play spoiler against Bellarmine, who is one of three teams tied atop the Atlantic Sun with a 6-2 conference record. Bellarmine has won six in a row, four of the wins coming on the road. But it’s worth pointing out that those six wins all came against the bottom three teams in the league. Jacksonville just got done facing the other top two, Liberty and North Alabama. So the recent records are a little misleading on both ends here. Bellarmine’s last two wins were against Kennesaw State, who is 0-10 in conference play. Despite shooting 60% in their last game, the Knights won by only five. You’ll want to take the points here. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA |
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02-04-21 | Ohio State v. Iowa -4.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA This is a top 10 matchup out of the Big 10 with #8 Iowa hosting #7 Ohio State. Despite being ranked one spot lower, Iowa is better. Considering that and the fact they are the home team, the Hawkeyes look like a solid value to lay the points with tonight. Now while they avoided what would have been a three-game losing streak by beating Michigan State on Tuesday, Iowa failed to cover the 9.5-point spread. (They won 84-78). So it’s three games in a row they haven’t covered. But the fact the team has lost just one time at home and is averaging 90.8 points per game at Carver-Hawkeye is definitely encouraging. Ohio State is also off a win over Michigan State, theirs coming by a score of 79-62. That was in Columbus though. We just don’t think the Buckeyes are going to produce enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Player of the Year (Luke Garza) and the Hawkeyes. Lay it! Play on IOWA AAA |
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02-03-21 | South Carolina v. Florida -8 | Top | 72-66 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA Florida had its season paused in late December, but has really started to get on track of late. An impressive win at Morgantown (West Virginia) on Saturday was the fourth straight game the Gators have been the victors. The 85-80 win over the 11th ranked team in the country also got them in the Top 25 (#22). Now they turn around and will host South Carolina this evening. The Gamecocks have only played 10 games this season and are 4-6. They were not a participant in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge, but lost over the weekend anyway (at Vanderbilt). That was the fourth loss in five games. South Carolina has lost both games vs. ranked teams this year, neither of which ended up being particularly close. They lost by 11 at Missouri and by 23 to Auburn. One could make the case that Florida is better than those teams. South Carolina has also lost four straight road games, by an average of 9.5 points/game. Florida has won its last three at home by an average of 14 points. Too many injuries for South Carolina to compete vs. a team that just beat two top 15 teams (Tenn, WVU). Play on FLORIDA AAA |
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02-02-21 | Baylor v. Texas UNDER 144.5 | Top | 83-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER #2 Baylor puts its unbeaten 16-0 record on the line tonight, in what should be its toughest test to date, against #6 Texas. The Longhorns were supposed to face Kentucky in the Big 12-SEC Challenge last weekend. But that game was cancelled. Baylor didn’t have much problem with its SEC opponent, beating what had been a red hot Auburn team, 84-72. The Bears’ average margin of victory for the season is nearly 25 points/game and only one time (an 8-point win over Kansas on 1/18) have they failed to win by double digits. They are top three in the country at both ends of the floor. They’ve gone Over in four straight games, but had gone Under in four straight previous to that. Texas has gone Over in six of its last seven. But we anticipate a lower-scoring affair Tuesday night. This is a pretty high total for both teams. For Texas, if the current number holds, it will be the highest total for any game in 2020-21. The Under has hit the last two times these sides have met. Those games saw just 97 and 101 points scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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02-02-21 | Tennessee -4 v. Ole Miss | Top | 50-52 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TENNESSEE Tennessee flexed its muscle over the weekend, beating Kansas 80-61, and is now back in the Top 10. Tonight the Vols are at Ole Miss. We’re a bit shocked this line isn’t higher. The Rebels have lost five of seven. While some of those losses were close, none were to teams as good as this.They are not one of the SEC’s better teams. It can’t be understated just how good Tennessee looked on Saturday. They were up 14 by halftime and led by as much as 26 in the second half. They did not allow a single second-chance point! We realize they haven’t had to go on the road very often, but they did win by 20 at Missouri (who is ranked) and by 17 at Texas A&M. A big reason why Ole Miss is losing games is the three-point line. They are shooting 25.9% from long distance in SEC play. Their opponents are shooting 37.4%. This problem reared its ugly head again on Saturday as they were only 2 of 13 from three-point range vs. Georgia, who was 9 of 18. Tennessee is holding opponents to 30% on three pointers. They should win easily tonight. Play on TENNESSEE AAA |
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02-01-21 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech OVER 137.5 | Top | 52-57 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oklahoma has ripped off three consecutive wins against Top 10 opponents, beating Kansas, Texas and Alabama. What a run that is! Saturday’s win in Tuscaloosa may have been the most impressive of the bunch considering how hot the Crimson Tide were and the Sooners were without their leading scorer. Another starter (Alondes Williams) was also out. Whether or not Williams and/or Austin Reeves (the leading scorer) will play tonight has yet to be determined. But we still like this game vs. Texas Tech to go Over the total. The Red Raiders are also off an impressive win in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, theirs coming at LSU where they scored the game’s final 12 points to make it a 76-71 final score. Texas Tech will be the 4th straight Top 10 team that OU has faced, a murderous stretch for anybody. You’ve got to question how solid the Sooners will be defensively. They give up 79 points/game away from home. Seven of Texas Tech’s last eight games have gone Over and their defense, which is usually very good, has been shaky of late as well. They’ve allowed 88 and 71 points the last two outings. Play on OVER AAA |
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02-01-21 | UCF v. Memphis -9 | Top | 69-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS Memphis saw its three-game win streak come to an end on Thursday with a two-point loss at SMU. They did cover the spread though as four point underdogs. It was the fourth consecutive cover by the Tigers, who were 2-9 ATS in their first 11 lined games. Having a couple extra days to prepare for this game with struggling UCF seems like a big deal. The Golden Knights have won only one time in their last seven games and it was against a terrible East Carolina team at home. UCF did play over the weekend and lost in overtime at Wichita State as they let a late eight-point lead slip away. There have been a lot of games this year where the Knights failed to crack 65 points and this figures to be another with Memphis allowing only 59.0 per game at home where they are 7-1 straight up. UCF has lost 12 of its previous 13 visits to Memphis, including by 20 the last time they came here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA |
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01-31-21 | CS Sacramento v. Eastern Washington -9 | Top | 60-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EASTERN WASHINGTON Eastern Washington started the season 0-3 but has since won 4 of 7 with the three losses all being by five points or less. Last weekend saw the Eagles split a couple games out in Northern Colorado as they lost the first by two points and won the second by six. There haven’t been many home games for the Eagles thus far, only three to be exact, so they should relish the opportunity Sunday when they welcome Sacramento State. The Hornets have also played many close games recently with three of their last four decided by six points or fewer and two of them going to overtime. So a lot of people are going to expect a close game here. But the line, which has EWU favored pretty strongly, is telling. Sacramento State may be 6-3 but they’ve played only three times on the road. They’ve lost two of them. They’ve also lost 9 of the last 10 matchups with Eastern Washington. These teams were actually supposed to play Thursday, but a positive COVID test on the Sacramento State forced a schedule change to Sunday & Monday. The disruption will affect the Hornets more as they have to travel. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON AAA |
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01-30-21 | Gonzaga v. Pepperdine OVER 162.5 | Top | 97-75 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Gonzaga keeps rolling as Thursday’s 90-62 victory over San Diego makes it 16 wins without a loss for the #1 ranked team in the country. There are only three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. Them, #2 Baylor and a Drake team whose season was interrupted by COVID. Believe it or not, tonight marks the first time all year the Zags have had to play a second straight game on the road. We certainly don’t have to worry about them scoring though. They lead the country with 94.1 points per game. But the fact they allow 76.4 on the road is notable and leads us to believe this game vs. Pepperdine is going Over. Pepperdine just beat BYU, by the way. That was here in Malibu. In the two home games before that, both of which the Waves won, they scored 80+ points. So you can see why the total has been set high tonight. But in our estimation it is not high enough. Both teams are 6-1 Under their last seven games, which includes a meeting in Spokane that Gonzaga won 95-70. But the total is lower this time. If the teams were to equal the total number of points scored in the first meeting, it would be an Over. We think more points will be scored. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-30-21 | Minnesota v. Purdue -2.5 | Top | 62-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PURDUE While we recognize Purdue is at home, any time an unranked team is favored against a Top 25 opponent, it catches our eye. Minnesota isn’t likely to be ranked for much longer, especially if they lose this game. Our money is on the Golden Gophers losing. Not only did they go down at home to Maryland last Saturday, they are 0-4 on the road this season. They could manage only 49 points vs. the Terps last week. All four road losses have been by at least 12 points. Why are they ranked again? Now Purdue is also looking to bounce back from an ugly loss. They lost by 17 to Michigan last Friday, here in West Lafayette. But that was preceded by a four-game win streak and it was their first home loss. Minnesota is giving up an average of 82.7 points on the road. Leading scorer Carr played the full 40 last Saturday vs. Maryland and scored 25 points. But his teammates could only manage 24 points on 6 of 32 shooting. Look for the Gophers to go down again. Play on PURDUE AAA |
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01-30-21 | TCU v. Missouri -9 | Top | 98-102 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI Missouri is off their third loss of the season. They’ve performed quite well off the previous two. After losing by 20 to Tennessee, they came back and won on the road by 13 against Arkansas. After losing by 15 at Mississippi State, they came back and won by 16 at Texas A&M. This time the Tigers get to play at home and they got a fortunate draw in the Big 12 vs. SEC Challenge with TCU, who is one of the Big 12’s weaker teams. The Horned Frogs just played their first game in 16 days Thursday and they lost 58-51 at Kansas. After such a long layoff (coach Jamie Dixon had tested positive for COVID), let’s see how they do playing a second road game in three days. Our guess is that it won’t go well. Missouri’s loss on Thursday was to a surging Auburn team that is better than most realize. A poor 1st half cost Mizzou but at home they won’t be getting off to a slow start and they shouldn’t have much problem shutting down a TCU team that averages only 62.9 points away from home. Play on MISSOURI AAA |
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01-29-21 | Iowa v. Illinois OVER 162.5 | Top | 75-80 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Watch this game get high-scoring in a hurry. Iowa averages 90.7 points per game. That’s second most in the country (Gonzaga is #1). So it sure was shocking to see the Hawkeyes score a season-low 69 in their last game. That loss to Indiana snapped a five-game win streak. They’d also covered the number in all five of those wins. Safe to say you can look for a bounce back game at the offensive end tonight. They are still #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. After making only 21.3 percent of their three-pointers vs. Indiana, you’ve got to expect more prolific shooting tonight. But we are concerned about their defensive play. The Hawkeyes are giving up 83.2 points per game when they are not the home team this season. Illinois averages 82.9 points per game. The Over is 10-5 in Iowa games. Illinois shoots better than 50% from the field - for the season. The Over is 7-2 in the Illini’s last nine home games against teams that have winning road records. Neither side will have an issue scoring here. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-29-21 | Manhattan v. St. Peter's -9 | Top | 55-59 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. PETERS Manhattan has won three straight games. They were an underdog in all three wins. The last two were at home vs. Niagara. But those games were played almost two weeks ago. They were supposed to play two vs. Monmouth last week, but those games got postponed due to a positive test in the Monmouth program. Playing with this much rest hasn’t gone well for the Jaspers as they are 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they’ve gone on seven or more days' rest. Let’s also talk about the fact that two of their three recent wins were by three points or less. They didn’t even score 60 points in any of them. Then again, St. Peter’s just scored only 40 in a loss at Siena. But something you should know is that this is the Peacocks’ first home game since December 12th! They’ve played seven in a row on the road. They’ve played only three home games, won all of them, and allowed just 51, 54 and 49 points. It’s quite telling that they are such prohibitive favorites here. Manhattan is just 2-7 ATS their previous nine road games. They are shooting an abysmal 32.8% on the road this season. Play on ST PETERS AAA |
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01-28-21 | Gonzaga v. San Diego +28.5 | Top | 90-62 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO Top-ranked Gonzaga continues to “hum along” as they are 15-0 following a 95-49 win against Pacific last Saturday. There has been only one game all season - an 87-82 win vs. West Virginia on December 2nd - that the Zags DIDN’T win by double digits. But they don’t cover as much as you might think. The win against Pacific marked the first time in five games that Mark Few’s team left with the cash. They are just 5-8 ATS the last 13 games as the pointspreads keeping getting higher and higher. The Bulldogs are laying a huge number tonight at San Diego, which is understandable given the Toreros’ record and general inactivity. They’ve played only eight games this season and won just two. But one of the wins was on Saturday as they defeated Portland 78-70 on the road. They won’t win tonight, but this is a ton of points to be getting at home. Gonzaga has just one WCC win - Saturday’s game vs Pacific - that was by a larger margin than what tonight’s spread will end up being. They are just 4-8 ATS on the road laying at least 12.5 and 0-2 laying at least 24.5. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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01-28-21 | TCU v. Kansas -14.5 | Top | 51-59 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 8* on KANSAS Kansas has lost three in a row, all on the road, so they should be in “desperation mode” come Thursday night at Allen Fieldhouse. They’ll be taking on a TCU team that has also lost its last three games, but has not played in 16 days. That’s because of coach Jamie Dixon testing positive for COVID-19, so this team is all out of sorts right now. The Horned Frogs’ three-game losing streak actually began at the hands of Kansas, a 93-64 result in Fort Worth. Since then they’ve lost by 18 to Baylor and by 36 at Oklahoma. This game was supposed to be played Tuesday before getting bumped back due to protocols. The extra 48 hours isn’t nearly enough for TCU to avoid the beatdown they’ve got coming to them. Again, they’ve already lost by 29 at home to Kansas. This is only the third 3-game losing streak for the Jayhawks in the past 25 seasons. They’ve never lost four in a row during that time. At home, their PPG allowed drops down to 63.6. It should be noted that it was three good teams they lost to on the road, Oklahoma State, Baylor and Oklahoma. It’s not as if they were blown out in any of them. All will be well again in Lawrence after tonight. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-27-21 | Boise State v. Colorado State +1 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO STATE Boise State is as hot as any team in the country not named Gonzaga or Baylor. The Broncos have won 13 in a row. They are unbeaten in the Mountain West, although we should be clear that they have yet to face any of the top teams in the conference. That changes on Wednesday with a visit to Fort Collins. Colorado State has already knocked off Utah State, who also had been unbeaten in conference play. That was the last time the Rams played and they are now the third place team, trailing only Boise and Utah State. CSU is 8-2 in conference play and we like the fact they are undefeated at home (6-0) where they average 82.2 points/game.Look for the Rams to jump out to a big halftime advantage in this one. They are the best team Boise has faced since a season opening loss to Houston. Play on COLORADO STATE AAA |
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01-27-21 | Miami-FL v. Florida State -12 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA STATE Florida State is now ranked #16 in the country. The Seminoles are 9-2 and have won their last four games. The current win streak began with a truly dominating effort where they defeated North Carolina State 105-73. That was the last time we took them. Since then, they’ve rolled North Carolina, Louisville and Clemson. The last two were double digit wins with the Louisville one being particularly impressive as it came on the road. Tonight they welcome Miami to Tallahassee and the Hurricanes are coming off an awful week where they lost 83-57 at Syracuse and 73-59 at home to Notre Dame. Those kind of putrid offensive efforts won’t cut it here. It is especially disconcerting that they could only score 59 against Notre Dame, who is not good defensively. FSU is 8-1 at home and winning by an average of almost 13 points/game. Miami is one of the weaker teams in the ACC this year, so this should be a third straight double digit victory by the Noles. They’ve beaten Miami five straight times, by an average of 10 points. They lead the ACC in points per game at home and have averaged 86.3 their last four at home. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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01-27-21 | BYU v. Pepperdine UNDER 147 | Top | 73-76 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER BYU has played well of late. The Cougars have won four in a row and eight of their last nine. The lone loss was to Gonzaga. This afternoon they travel to face a Pepperdine team they just beat on Saturday by a score of 65-54. That was the Waves’ fourth loss in their last six games. You’ll note the low-scoring nature of the previous contest as BYU only shot 37.5% that game, but they might as well have “made them all” compared to Pepperdine’s paltry 28.8 FG%. For BYU, it was the second lowest field goal percentage for a game this season. It was Pepperdine’s lowest. Maybe the two teams combined to score more this afternoon, but it still won’t be enough to send this rematch Over the total. The Under is 5-0 in BYU road games as they go from averaging 77.8 points/game at home to 61.3 away from home. The key issue is that they shoot only 28.8% from three-point range on the road. Pepperdine is holding visiting teams to 27.9% from behind the arc this season while at the same time being a poor three-point shooting team. Five of the Waves’ last six games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-26-21 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron -11 | Top | 65-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AKRON Akron comes in at 8-3 on the season. They are a perfect 6-0 at home. They’ve been red hot lately, winning and covering four straight. A 78.9 points per game scoring average is impressive and it gets even more impressive when you look at only home games as they are averaging 87.0 in those. Eastern Michigan’s resume is quite different. The Eagles have not won a game away from home this season. They are 1-6 ATS in conference play and have lost four in a row by an average of 20.25 points (0-4 ATS). In the previous four road games, you’re looking at an average of 86.5 points/game allowed. Shockingly, EMU won the first meeting between the teams, 71-59 as a 5.5-point dog. But that was obviously in Ypsilanti. So the revenge factor is strong here and we’ve got every reason to believe this Tuesday night matchup in the MAC turns into a blowout. Credit to Akron for allowing their previous opponents to shoot just 28.9% from three-point range this season. That number probably won’t go up after tonight as EMU is shooting just 28.3% from behind the arc, including a woeful 23.5% when on the road. Akron’s average margin of victory at home is 16.2 PPG. Could these teams be any more different heading into this one? Play on AKRON AAA |
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01-24-21 | San Diego State -17 v. Air Force | Top | 91-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* ON SAN DIEGO STATE By the time Tuesday rolls around, San Diego State and Air Force will have met in three straight games. Here in Colorado Springs, they are used to see things “flying high,” but in this case it’s the Aztecs who came in and took the first game 98-61 as 13-point favorites. That win snapped a 4-game ATS slide and was a nice bounce back for a team that has just gotten swept the week prior by Utah State. The Mountain West is shaping up as a fairly strong league this year with the likes of Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State plus SDSU. Air Force is simply not in the same class as those teams as they are now 0-5 against them with all five losses coming by double digits. The Falcons have won just one time in the last seven games and aren’t even averaging 60 PPG this season. No team in the country takes fewer shots per game. They’ve also given up 77 or more points in five of the last six losses. San Diego State is excellent defensively and is giving up less than 60 PPG on the road. They’ve covered 14 of the last 17 on the road. Five players were in double figures Thursday as the Aztecs picked it up with leading scorer Matt Mitchell on the shelf. More of the same Sunday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE AAA |
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01-23-21 | Duke +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DUKE Duke simply has not been good this year as they are 5-4 SU and 1-8 ATS. Dealing with COVID-19 hasn’t helped and here the Blue Devils hope to avoid an 0-3 road trip when they head to Louisville. The home team has its own problems right now as they’ve also lost two in a row, though the last one came at home to Florida State by 13 points. Only one of these traditional powers can get off the mat Saturday and it’s interesting that this is just the second time this season that Duke is an underdog. We’re seeing value in the number here. This is the first time they’ve lost two straight and you’ve got to think they’ll shoot better as a team here than they did vs. Pitt earlier in the week. Jalen Johnson had a monster effort in that game, going for 24 points, 15 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks and zero turnovers. Duke is the more talented team here. Louisville does not shoot the three well and actually trailed Florida State 40-16 in the first half on Monday. The road team has won the last two times these schools have faced off. Why can’t it be three in a row? Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-23-21 | NC State +6.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 76-86 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NC STATE North Carolina State is in desperation mode here as they’re off to an 0-3 start to 2021. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, this is a down year in the ACC and rival UNC isn’t doing much better. The Tar Heels are just 1-6 ATS in ACC play and that includes a 79-76 loss in Raleigh right before Christmas. North Carolina has won four of its last five games straight up, however all of those wins came by seven or less and two were by a combined three points. So this team isn’t winning by any kind of margin right now and we’ll back the underdog. This is NC State’s 1st game in 10 days due to a pair of COVID-19 postponements. Last time we saw them, we faded and boy was that a smart decision as they lost by 32 at Florida State, 105-73 as a 3.5-point underdog. There’s no way to dress that loss up, but we see no reason why the Wolfpack should be getting more points from UNC than they were from FSU. Prior to that season-worst showing, NC State’s last four games had all been decided by five or less. Florida State somehow shot 70.7% against them, something no future opponent will do, including UNC. They’ve beaten the Tar Heels once and can do it again. Play on NC STATE AAA |
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01-23-21 | Auburn v. South Carolina UNDER 155.5 | Top | 109-86 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Auburn comes into this game having covered four straight, but they’ve won straight up just twice in the last seven tries. It was a disappointing 75-73 loss at Arkansas earlier in the week and now they head to South Carolina to face a Gamecocks team who is in no better shape. South Carolina has been battling COVID issues all season as coach Frank Martin is just now returning from his second absence. The Gamecocks seemingly are finally healthy now, though they’ve lost two in a row, both on the road. Auburn is also as close to full strength as they’ve been all year with Sharife Cooper having rejoined the lineup on January 9th. Cooper has made the Tigers a more explosive team offensively as they’ve scored 90 or more twice since his arrival. But Martin’s South Carolina teams always seem to give Auburn some trouble. Auburn has lost three in a row here in Columbia - by an average of 13.3 points/game. The Gamecocks are great at defending the three-point line (30.7% allowed), getting rebounds (1st in SEC) and forcing turnovers (16.6 per game). So this could very well be a fairly low-scoring affair. Auburn is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, which helps when playing the Under. The Tigers are 6-2 Under as underdogs this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-22-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Texas-Arlington | Top | 66-59 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UT ARLINGTON Texas Arlington watched its three-game win streak come to an end last Saturday as they fell into a huge halftime hole against Louisiana and never recovered. Now 3-3 in the Sun Belt, the Mavericks are tied with the team they face tonight, Little Rock, in the West Division. Little Rock has dropped three of four including two to first place Texas State last weekend. Three of those four games, including the one win, were decided by four points or less. But the pointspread won’t be a factor tonight and we don’t think the Trojans have enough offense to keep pace. They are 1-6 ATS playing with five or six days rest. They are also 4-13 ATS off their last 17 conference losses. TX-Arlington averages 87.8 points/game at home this year so they must be respected here and we don’t see them losing for a third time this season to Little Rock. Those first two games, played at the start of 2021, were played in Little Rock. The Trojans starting PG (Nowell) is suspended. Play on UT ARLINGTON AAA |
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01-22-21 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -16.5 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UC IRVINE Cal Poly is not a good team, something that should be readily apparent via their 2-8 won-loss record. The Mustangs show up tonight on a six-game losing streak and the last five (losses) have all come by at least 13 points. They are also 0-5-1 ATS during the losing streak. Their only two wins were against a non-board team (Bethesda) back in November and San Jose State last month. San Jose State is a dreadful team and they only won that game by 4. The Mustangs have five losses by at least 17 points this year. So Cal Irvine has to be licking its chops Friday as they look to continue to a four-game win streak.This is the Anteaters first game in almost two weeks, so they’re fresh. Meanwhile, Cal Poly lost twice at home last week. On the road, they are barely scoring 50 points/game! Cal Irvine is 4-0 at home, averaging 84.2 points while giving up only 58.0. Expect a very one-sided affair. Play on UC IRVINE AAA |
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01-22-21 | Wright State v. IUPU-Indianapolis UNDER 147.5 | Top | 95-65 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
THIS IS A 10* ON UNDER Though it’s an early start time Friday (Noon local), we expect Wright State to “show up” for this Horizon League tilt. Despite its current second place standing, the Raiders are probably the best team in this conference as they demonstrated last week when they crushed 1st place Cleveland State by 36. WSU allowed just 49 points in that game and shouldn’t have much trouble slowing down an IUPUI team that averages only 60.0 points at home. But the “catch” here is that IUPUI is only allowing 63.3 points/game at home. The Jaguars upset Northern Kentucky twice last week, winning 74-69 and 65-63 as an underdog of eight and seven points respectively. Those wins came on the road too. They’ve played just seven games because of COVID and the last two at home were played three weeks ago, both vs. Cleveland State. They allowed 59 and 65 points those two games. The Under has hit in all three IUPUI games this season. From a field goal percentage standpoint, Wright State’s defense is as good as it gets, limiting foes to 37.6. This should be a low-scoring, early game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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01-21-21 | Indiana v. Iowa -10 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA Iowa is a really good basketball team. Ranked #4 in the country (and deservedly so), the Hawkeyes have won five straight games and covered the spread in all five. Four of the five wins have come by double digit margins. Tonight they host an Indiana team that is coming off a very disappointing home loss to Purdue last Thursday. The Hoosiers were four-point favorites in that one and expected to snap a 7-game losing streak to the Boilermakers, but instead were dealt an 81-69 defeat. They were then supposed to play Michigan State on Sunday, but that was postponed. While shooting just 3 of 18 from behind the 3-point line certainly hurt against Purdue, a much graver concern tonight for IU is the fact they’ve surrendered an average of 78.7 points the last three games. Iowa is as good as it gets offensively, leading the Big 10 in scoring at 92.2 points/game. They’ve got a Player of the Year candidate in Luke Garza and have covered 10 of the 12 games they’ve been favored in this season. Lay it! Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-19-21 | Ball State v. Miami-OH +4 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH Miami hosts Ball State for some Tuesday night “MACtion” and the RedHawks will be looking to bounce back from a 17-point defeat to their rivals (Ohio) last week. That loss took place on the road where the team is now 0-3 on the year and not looked good. But at home, the RedHawks have gone a solid 4-1. The one loss did come in conference play, vs. Buffalo, but a win their last time here (70-58 over N Illinois) was sufficient enough for us to believe they can win here, or at least cover the spread. Ball State is 6-5 SU but they’ve gotten to play N Illinois twice so far (N Illinois is very bad). Considering they’ve lost four games by double digits, the Cardinals don’t exactly appear to be a strong road favorite, a role they’ve been in only one other time this season … against (you guessed it) N Illinois. Miami does an excellent job at forcing turnovers and limiting second-chance opportunities. Their problem has been the opponents can’t seem to miss. In three league games, they’ve allowed a shooting percentage of 52.4, but our view is that number HAS to come down. Home team has covered four of the last five meetings and Miami is 11-4-1 ATS L16 as a home dog. Play on MIAMI AAA |
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01-18-21 | Kansas v. Baylor OVER 140.5 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Big game here with unbeaten Baylor (#2 in the country) taking on Kansas (#6). The Jayhawks will almost certainly be LOWER in the rankings by tipoff as they lost their most recent game, which was all the way back on Tuesday, 75-70 at Oklahoma State. Defensively speaking, the Jayhawks were terrible in that game as they gave up 37 fast-break points. They’ll need to be better against Baylor, but will it even matter? The Bears average 91.2 points/game in Waco and coming off two subpar offensive efforts, we see them regaining their touch tonight. The Bears’ defensive numbers are outstanding, but Kansas will be the best offensive team they’ll have faced so far. After playing Texas Tech on Saturday, how much will Baylor have left in the tank defensively? It’s a tough turnaround. The Over has hit in four of Kansas’ previous five games. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-17-21 | Western Kentucky v. Marshall -2.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARSHALL These Conference USA teams are playing for the second time in three days. Only this time, the game is in Huntington, WV. On Friday, it was Western Kentucky winning at home, 81-73, to snap a 5-game ATS losing streak. The Hilltoppers are now 10-4 straight up, but only 4-10 against the spread. Marshall is now 7-3 SU and has not lost two straight this season. Off a loss, they’ve won by 14 and by 7. They are also 4-1 at home where they average 82.2 points/game. The big difference in Friday’s game came at the free throw line where WKU went 19 of 21 while Marshall was only 2 of 5. Now the home team, the Thundering Herd will not be facing a discrepancy like that again. They’ve lost four straight to WKU, so the revenge angle goes beyond just Friday. It’s not like Marshall is a drastically inferior side. In fact, they are favored, a role they’ve won in 35 of the past 47 times. With such a short number, we won’t hesitate to lay it as WKU has not covered two straight games since it opened the season 2-0. Also, the Hilltoppers are 0-2 this season when facing a team for the second time. They failed to sweep both La Tech and Charlotte after winning the first game of a two-game set. Play on MARSHALL AAA |
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01-16-21 | Wofford v. Chattanooga +2 | Top | 77-59 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHATTANOOGA This is a key battle in the Southern Conference, especially from Chattanooga’s perspective. The Mocs were 9-0, but have dropped three of five to fall into sixth place in the standings. All three losses have been by five points or less, so it’s not like they’ve played a bad game. On Wednesday, they did defeat Mercer 83-80 and now get a shot at one of the teams ahead of them in the standings, Wofford. The Terriers are also coming off a narrow win, theirs by just two points (80-78) over VMI. This will be their third consecutive road game as they also defeated NC Greensboro by three (48-45) in a much different style game from the one vs. VMI. Three road games in seven days is a tough ask in any league and considering Wofford could easily be 0-2 on this trip, we say “their time is up” today. Chattanooga is 29-14 ATS L43 as an underdog including 4-0 this year. They are a more veteran team compared to Wofford, who has failed to cover the spread off their previous four wins (were -6 vs. VMI). Play on CHATTANOOGA AAA |
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01-16-21 | CS Bakersfield v. Hawaii -1 | Top | 60-55 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HAWAII Late night in Honolulu we get Hawaii hosting Cal State Bakersfield. This will be just the fifth game of the year of the home team. The first two were against non-Division I opponents, both of whom also hailed from “the island.” Those games were played in mid-December. The Warriors finally returned to the court last weekend with a pair of games at UC Riverside. They split the pair, winning the first one by five and losing the second by two. But they covered both, as a six and five point underdog, respectively. It’s basically a pick ‘em tonight and we don’t agree with that, even though CS Bakersfield has won its last three games. One of those three wins was on the road, but overall the Roadrunners are just 2-4 away from home compared to 5-0 at home. Hawaii has the best home court advantage in the Big West and if not for a last second shot by UC Riverside in the last game, the Warriors very well could have gone on to win that game and still be undefeated. This will be Cal State Bakersfield’s 1st trip to Honolulu as a member of the Big West Conference. Play on HAWAII AAA |
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01-14-21 | Pepperdine v. Gonzaga -25.5 | Top | 70-95 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA Gonzaga’s exploits need little introduction at this point as the #1 team in the country has won its 12 games by an average of nearly 23 points. They lead the country in scoring, averaging a ridiculous 96.1 points/game. The latest victim is going to be Pepperdine, who visits Spokane tonight. The Waves are simply not up to this task as they haven’t even played since Christmas and their last two games have been losses by 28 (to Cal State Bakersfield) and by 12 (to Cal Santa Barbara). Those losses were both at home. In fact, this is going to be just their second road game of the season. Gonzaga just hung 116 points on Portland its last time out. The only reason they did not cover is because they were asked to lay 32.5 points! (They won by 28). Pepperdine actually covered both meetings last season, but as you’d expect it’s Gonzaga that’s dominated the rivalry. The Zags have beaten Pepperdine 39 straight times going back to 2002 and haven’t lost at them at home since 1998! The straight up result is obviously in little doubt tonight, so it comes down to whether or not Mark Few’s team can cover the number. We think they will as a team that loses by 28 at home to Cal State Bakersfield is up against it here. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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01-13-21 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. Texas | Top | 79-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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01-13-21 | NC State v. Florida State -4 | Top | 73-105 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on FSU Florida State and NC State have some things in common. Both are 0-3 ATS their last three games. Both are off a loss. NC State has dropped two in a row, one of those coming against Clemson, who also beat FSU. But something will have to give Wednesday night in Tallahassee and we believe it will be the home team breaking through. There’s no shame in losing to Clemson (as NC State knows) and that was the Seminoles’ first road game of the season. It was also just their second loss, the only other one being a shocker at the hands of UCF. The Clemson game took place all the way back on 12/29 as Covid 19 has claimed their last two scheduled games. So it will be an angry home team tonight that hasn’t taken the floor in over two weeks. NC State has played three times since FSU last took the floor and coming off back to back close losses (both by five points or less), the Wolfpack are at a disadvantage. NC State has covered only one of its last six games. If not for inactivity, FSU would likely still be a Top 25 team. Lay it! Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA |
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01-12-21 | Cal-Riverside v. USC -14.5 | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on USC USC has been rolling of late and we don’t see that stopping tonight as they step outside Pac 12 play for a home game against UC Riverside Tuesday night. The Trojans have won their last three games by an average of almost 14 points per game. Those three wins were against teams that are all stronger than what they face here. UC Riverside does have a 15 point win over a Pac 12 team, Washington, but that was early in the year and the Huskies are not very good. After a month off due to Covid cancellations, the Highlanders have played two games, both against Hawaii, and they went 0-2 ATS in those games. It was a five-point loss and a two-point win, games that they were favored to win. USC is the best team they’ve faced so far and all-time they are 0-6 SU vs. the Trojans. USC does an outstanding job defensively and cleaning up the glass. Those advantages should be on full display here. Play on USC AAA |
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01-12-21 | Kansas -3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas has recovered nicely from the ugly loss to Texas that kicked off the new year. The 6th ranked Jayhawks have now won two straight, beating TCU by 29 on the road and Oklahoma by four at home. They are back on the road tonight against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys just won 70-54 at Kansas State and also recently upset Texas Tech on the road. But they’ve lost three of five since a 6-0 start. While all three losses came by no more than three points, we view them as being clearly outclassed tonight in Stillwater. Kansas has won the last five head to head meetings, doing so by an average of 14 points/game. OSU looks like they could be short-handed for this game as well. Four players are currently listed as questionable. Not ideal when taking on a team as good as Kansas. Play on KANSAS AAA |
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01-11-21 | Colorado v. Utah +3.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH The home team has gone 6-0 ATS in the previous six meetings between these Pac 12 rivals. Utah gets to play host on Monday as it hopes to end a three-game losing streak. Two of those losses came on the road (UCLA and USC) and then the Utes did lose here in Salt Lake City over the weekend, 79-73 to Oregon. That was a very discouraging defeat when you consider how well Utah shot the ball (55.8 FG%) and the fact they had a 10-point halftime advantage. Thanks to turnovers, the Utes really fell apart late. But don’t expect that to happen again. The Utes are 9-2 SU and ATS their last 11 times hosting Colorado. This game wasn’t supposed to be played until March 6th, but CU had a COVID cancellation over the weekend and decided to move the game up. An “impromptu” road game sounds difficult when you consider that the Buffaloes are 11-40-1 ATS on the road when facing an opponent that has a winning record at home. All three Colorado losses this year have come on the road, two of them by double digits. Play on UTAH AAA |
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01-10-21 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 63-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA Tech Virginia Tech is having a much better season than Notre Dame as the Hokies are 8-2 compared to just 3-6 for the Fighting Irish. Va Tech is off one of its two losses, which was by just a bucket at Louisville. Look for them to bounce back from that 2-point defeat on Sunday as they are 6-1 in Blacksburg where they’re winning by more than 10 points per game. The Louisville game was the first true road game of the season. On their home court, they’ve defeated the likes of Clemson and don’t forget a very impressive neutral site victory against Villanova. Notre Dame also came up just short on the road in its last game, a one-point loss to UNC. But before that, they’d lost by at least nine to Duke, Purdue and Virginia. Two of the Irish’s three wins have been against Detroit and Bellarmine. The other was by a single point over Kentucky. Need I remind you that the Hokies are ranked #19 in the country? They don’t lose at home very often and Notre Dame is 0-3 ATS the last three times its taken the court with at least seven days rest. Play on VA TECH AAA |
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01-09-21 | Seton Hall v. DePaul +4 | Top | 76-68 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Depaul Depaul takes the court for the just 4th time this season and it’s against a Seton Hall team that was recently manhandled in an 89-53 loss to Creighton. Now the Blue Demons are no Creighton, but they are at home, which is a place they have not played at since a 91-72 win against Western Illinois right before Christmas. Seton Hall is 8-5 straight up (9-4 ATS), so it has actually been a good season for them despite what happened vs. Creighton. The Pirates were on a 7-1 SU/ATS run before that ugly loss on Wednesday. But we don’t like them laying points on the road in this instance. The only other time they had to do it, they lost at Rhode Island early in the season. There were no positives at all from the Pirates’ last game as they shot just 33% while letting Creighton shoot 59.6%. They were down 42 at one point! A loss like that can wound a team’s psyche. Coming into the season, the Hall had been 0-6 ATS immediately after a game where they allowed at least 80 points. They are 4-11 ATS off a Big East loss. Play on Depaul AAA |
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01-08-21 | North Dakota +11 v. Oral Roberts | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NORTH DAKOTA North Dakota isn’t all that good (2-9 SU record), but Oral Roberts probably shouldn’t be laying double digits to anybody. ORU has covered its last six lined games, but four of those were SU losses where they were underdogs of at least 10 points. They did sweep Omaha last week, winning 95-83 and 86-75, to get Summit League play off to a nice start. But they were short favorites for both games. You should look for North Dakota to be competitive Friday night, even though they really haven’t been on the road thus far. This basically boils down to the fact that Oral Roberts has not been favored by more than three points against anyone this season. They hadn’t been favored - in any game - before the sweep of Omaha last weekend nor had they beaten a single Division I opponent! We don’t think North Dakota is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to as they’ve done a decent job defensively in conference play, holding teams to just 64.0 points/game. The Fighting Hawks are 4-0 ATS following a double digit loss at home. Grab the points in this one. Play on NORTH DAKOTA AAA |
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01-08-21 | Ohio +3.5 v. Toledo | Top | 78-95 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Ohio U has not beaten Toledo once in its last five tries and this time they’ve got to face the Rockets when they are on a six-game win streak and have covered five straight. But while Ohio had a rough three-game stretch at the end of 2020 - losing to Marshall, Akron and Bowling Green - they’ve rebounded nicely with wins over Ball State and Northern Illinois to start 2021. The Bobcats did hang with Illinois earlier this season (lost by just two in Champaign-Urbana) and are one of the better offensive teams in the MAC with a 55.7 effective field goal percentage, which ranks 26th in the country. That they’ve been able to maintain that offensive efficiency despite playing without leading scorer Jason Preston (questionable for tonight) the last three games is pretty impressive. Toledo won by just two points its last time out and while they were three-point underdogs, they don’t have the luxury of winning by such a narrow margin again tonight. We smell upset tonight in the Mid-American Conference. You should take the points here. Play on OHIO AAA |
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01-07-21 | BYU +17.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on GONZAGA In our view, you won’t find a better team in the country than Gonzaga, who is not just 10-0 but also winning their games by an average margin of 30.6 points per game. They just blew out one of the better WCC teams (San Francisco) in their last game, 85-62, which was the Zags’ fourth straight victory by at least 23 points. One of those was against Virginia, so it’s not like it’s been all bad teams they’ve been facing. Like we said earlier, San Francisco is a good team and they destroyed them. Now comes BYU, also recognized as one of the potential “challengers” to Gonzaga’s reign of dominance in this conference. Don’t look for this one to be close either. BYU has already been beaten once this year by 26 points (USC) and also lost at home to Boise State. Complicating matters for the visitors is the fact Gonzaga will be out to avenge a late-season loss from last year. The three prior meetings all saw the Zags win by at least 23 points. Look for another 20+ point win tonight. Play on GONZAGA AAA |
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01-06-21 | Boston College v. Duke -11 | Top | 82-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DUKE It’s been almost a month (12/16) since Duke last took the court. That last game was a 75-65 win over Notre Dame and the first time they covered a spread this season (were only 1-point favorites). Losing to Michigan State and Illinois - as the Blue Devils did - isn’t that big of a deal. We like Coach K to have another productive ACC season and a Boston College team that’s dropped six of its last seven games isn’t going to provide much of a challenge tonight. The Eagles only win since November came against Maine. They are giving up a ton of points, 81.1 per game to be exact. St. Johns, Syracuse, Minnesota and Florida all scored at least 85 against this team. Duke is better than all four of those teams and should score in that neighborhood. Making matters worse for BC is that they were pretty inept at the offensive end vs. Louisville over the weekend. They shot just 33.8% and missed 25 of 33 three point attempts. No path to be competitive here for BC. Play on DUKE AAA |
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01-05-21 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -15.5 | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS TECH It’s been a while since Texas Tech (0-6 ATS L6) covered a game. You’d actually have to go back to December 9th to find the last time the #18 ranked Red Raiders were the winners at the betting window. But that’s what happens sometimes when you’re favored in every game. We happen to think this team is much better than its current ranking in the polls and view tonight as a “buy low” opportunity as they welcome Kansas State to Lubbock. Remember that K-State lost to Fort Hayes State, a non-Division I school, at home earlier this season. Texas Tech has six wins by 20 or more points, so don’t be worried about laying the “big” number here. Again, with that many blowout victories you wouldn’t think they’d be struggling to cover games. The Red Raiders are off a loss here, 82-77 to Oklahoma State on Saturday, a game that went to overtime. But this is a drop in class. Three of Kansas State’s five wins have come by four points or fewer, so they easily could be even worse off than 5-6 SU. When the Wildcats played Baylor, they lost by 31 at home. That’s the only ranked opponent they’ve faced so far. They were down by 17 at home to TCU on Saturday. The Wildcats turn the ball over too much and you can’t do that against one of the best defensive teams in the country like Texas Tech. Tonight won’t go well for the visitors. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA |
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01-04-21 | Stanford v. Oregon State +6.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OREGON STATE Dangerous spot for Stanford to be laying points here. This is the second road game in three nights and they are off a 73-56 loss to Oregon. Oregon State has won three straight and their 5-3 WL record is a bit misleading as all three Beavers’ losses were by four points or fewer. They are eight points away from having a perfect 8-0 SU record, so we will gladly take the points Monday afternoon in Corvallis. OSU was a 73-64 winner on Saturday against Cal. Defensively, the Beavers have been stout, allowing more than 64 points in only two games thus far. Stanford has covered only three games all year and is 0-2 ATS when playing with one or zero days rest. Senior guard Daejon Davis did not play on Saturday and is listed as questionable for this one. Play on OREGON STATE AAA |
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01-03-21 | Houston v. SMU +2.5 | Top | 74-60 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SMU This was “supposed” to be a battle of unbeatens, but #5 Houston “ruined” that when they went out and got beat 65-64 by Tulsa last Tuesday. Now the Cougars are not only off a loss, but playing for third straight time on the road and it’s against 6-0 SMU, who is not ranked but obviously still undefeated. The Mustangs have enjoyed a strong home court edge here at Moody Coliseum, winning 29 of their last 39 games here. While having the home court edge in 2021 isn’t what it “used to be,” we still look for SMU to keep its unbeaten run going Sunday night. They are 5-1 ATS after beating Temple Wednesday and defeated Houston last year, 73-72, here at home. Houston has not shot well the last two games (below 36.0 FG%) and that’s a problem when facing a SMU squad that comes in averaging 84.2 points/game. Three straight road games is always tough, especially when the third is against a quality foe. Laying points here sounds bad, so we’ll take ‘em! Play on SMU AAA |
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01-02-21 | North Dakota State v. Western Illinois +6.5 | Top | 68-50 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS We’re digging deep into the Saturday card with a play from the Summit League. These are hardly two of the better performing teams from this conference, but what we have here is a not-so-good team laying points on the road. North Dakota State has played the likes of Kansas, Creighton and TCU pretty tough so far. But now they’re a favorite for just the third time this year and first time on the road. The Bison’s two victories have been by a total of eight points. So they are not a team you’d want to back in this situation. Western Illinois has yet to play a conference game (NDSU has played three). The Leathernecks have generally been competitive, except for when they faced Iowa (season opener) and Depaul (last game). While they may not have liked it, getting blown out by Iowa is fine. As for the loss to Depaul, it was their third straight road game and right before the Holidays. This will be just the second game in Macomb for the Leathernecks and we like them getting points against a team that’s shooting only 40.2% from the field thus far. Play on WESTERN ILLINOIS AAA |
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01-02-21 | Iowa -3 v. Rutgers | Top | 77-75 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on IOWA Iowa is a very good basketball team. That should be obvious by their #10 ranking. You don’t get that high in the polls by being mediocre. But we think the Hawkeyes happen to be even BETTER than that #10 ranking and they’ll show it Saturday at Rutgers. Iowa comes in at 8-2 while averaging 94.3 points per contest. One of the losses was to #1 Gonzaga and the other was in overtime. Last Tuesday they took care of #19 Northwestern 87-72. Now it’s another ranked opponent, this one on the road. But is Rutgers really as good as its #14 ranking? We don’t think so. They did beat Illinois here in East Brunswick, NJ. After that was their only loss of the year, which was on the road (Ohio State). The Scarlet Knights bounced back by beating Purdue Tuesday. Iowa is the best team they will have faced. The Hawkeyes do not turn the ball over much (4th lowest rate in the country) and Rutgers doesn’t turn their opponents over much. Iowa is #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. They are 7-2 all-time vs. Rutgers. Play on IOWA AAA |
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01-01-21 | Old Dominion v. Florida International UNDER 151 | Top | 67-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER FIU is averaging 88.6 points/game so far, but that number will almost assuredly start to come down. The lofty scoring average has more to do with whom the Panthers have faced thus far. They just hung 113 on Carver Bible, a performance that you certainly shouldn’t put much stock in. Two games ago, FIU went to double overtime with Ga Southern, so that point total was artificially inflated. Bottom line: their hot shooting to start this season is due to cool off. Old Dominion hasn’t shot well on the road (39.4%) nor from three point range anywhere (27% overall). This figures to be among the highest totals for any Monarchs game all season. A team that doesn’t shoot it well away from home going against a team due for a downturn in shooting has all the makings of an Under, particularly on New Year’s Day when both teams could be a bit “sleepy.” This is our top total of the month from Conference USA. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-31-20 | Nevada -6 v. New Mexico | Top | 68-54 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 8* on NEVADA Similar to the San Diego-San Francisco matchup, the favorite for this game has been far more “active” in the early part of the season. Nevada has played eight games compared to only five for New Mexico. The Wolf Pack could only manage a split of two home games vs. Air Force, losing the second one by two points despite being an 11.5-point favorite. They are back in the favorite role tonight, and for good reason as New Mexico just lost twice in a row at Boise State. Those losses were by 24 and 37 points. Two of the Lobos' three wins this year came against non-Division I opponents that go by the names of Our Lady of the Lake and Letorneau. Not exactly NCAA Tournament resume builders! Don’t care that this game is in Albuquerque as Nevada is a perfect 5-0 ATS the past five times it has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. New Mexico is just 11-24 ATS vs. teams with winning records and has lost three straight times to Nevada - all by double digits. Play on NEVADA AAA |