Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-30-23 | Tigers v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:10 ET - The Tigers are one of the worst hitting teams in the league but Coors Field has a way of bringing out the best in visiting teams. Not only that, facing a pitcher like Austin Gomber certainly should help matters as well. Gomber is 3-3 with an 8.72 ERA this season at home. As for the Tigers starter here, Michael Lorenzen is expected to get the call here. He has struggled in his last 4 starts. 15 earned runs in 23 and 2/3 innings for Lorenzen in his last 4 starts and those were all at home. The Rockies can score well at home and certainly should here. The Tigers should pound the ball on the road here as they take advantage of a hitter-friendly park and weak pitching. The Rockies bullpen is one of the worst in the majors. Colorado games have totaled 17 or more in 3 of last 5 games. The Rockies are 4-3 last 7 games and those games have averaged 13 runs per game. Look for another one to get into that range here. 10* OVER 11 in Colorado |
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06-30-23 | Edmonton Elks v. Ottawa OVER 41.5 | Top | 7-26 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 41.5 in Ottawa Redblacks vs Edmonton Elks @ 7:30 ET - Two winless teams and something has to give here. While I am not comfortable with the side in this one I do like the total for a strong play. Both teams could struggle defensively in this one. Edmonton is allowing 27.3 ppg so far this season. Ottawa allowing 22.5 ppg so far this season plus allowed 26.5 ppg last season and went 0-9 in home games last season. In other words, the Redblacks are known for giving up bigger points at home and struggling to win games. But couple that with the fact they are facing an Edmonton team struggling to stop anyone and you have the perfect set-up for points in this one. 10* OVER 41.5 in Ottawa |
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06-30-23 | Nationals v. Phillies -170 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -170 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies -170 vs Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies have won 18 of 23 games. Washington is 9-29 this season against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia just swept the Cubs at Wrigley Field and they are red hot overall with wins in 4 straight games and the aforementioned 18-5 run. Washington is 7-15 in divisional games and 8-21 against left-handed starters. Christopher Sanchez is a lefty getting hit at only a .220 clip in his first few starts this season and he should enjoy success against a downtrodden Nationals team. Sanchez has also had low BAA in each of his last 4 seasons at the minor league level. As for the Phillies, they have been red hot at the plate plus they are now back home where they generally hit very very well. This team has been red hot run at home ever since their big run last season from the 2nd half of the season through a trip to the World Series. The Nationals have shockingly won 4 of 5 games but this followed a stretch in which they went 10-24. Also they have struggled so badly against winning teams as noted above. Nats are expected to start Josiah Gray and he is off a good start but this followed allowing at least 4 earned runs in 3 of 4 starts and that included one against this Phillies team. This will be a blowout win. So the road favorite, even at this price, is offering nice value here at a great low price. PHILADELPHIA -170 |
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06-30-23 | UC Dublin v. St. Patrick's Ath. OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 102 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #205621 - League of Ireland Premier Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 in St Patrick's vs UC Dublin @ 2:45 ET - St Patrick's matches have averaged 3 goals apiece this season. They are scoring about 2 goals per match this season at home. Here they will take advantage of facing a UC Dublin club that is allowing an average of 3 goals per match when on the road this season! I am looking for a 4-0 or 3-1 type final here given the above numbers. The key is UC Dublin just snapped a 10-game winless run with a 2-1 win however and I could see them having some extra confidence here as a result. They will still give up plenty of goals here but don't be surprised if they make the net ripple at least once in this one. The result should be at least 4 goals. St Patrick's is favored by 2.5 goals on the goal line for a reason. 3-1 or 4-0 or even 3-2 or 4-1 we are going to see plenty of goals here the way I see it. 10* OVER 3.5 in St Patrick's |
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06-29-23 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 14-3 | Win | 104 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
MLB Thursday OVER 11.5 or 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Going with the over again here. The weather in Denver could see some rain but still very warm temperatures. The ball carries so well here and another wild one just like yesterday's 9-8 Rockies win could be in store. The LA bullpen has struggled this season and so too has the Rockies bullpen. Only the Nationals bullpen has a higher ERA than the Colorado and Los Angeles bullpens in terms of the rankings this season in the National League. As for the expected starters here, Chase Anderson has absolutely been destroyed in his last two starts with 16 earned runs allowed in less than 6 innings of work. As for the Dodgers Emmet Sheehan, this is his first ever road start at the MLB level and Coors Field is probably the worst park in the league in terms of being a first start for a rookie pitcher. Yes, Sheehan has really impressed so far in his 2 MLB starts but both were at home. Also, this is very limited action and in the minors he never pitched above the AA level. This could be a very tough spot for him. The runs will flow again at Coors Field this evening. OVER 11.5 or 12 in Colorado |
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06-29-23 | Phillies -117 v. Cubs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
MLB Thursday Philadelphia Phillies -117 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies have won 17 of 22 games. The Cubs are 19-19 last 38 home games so Wrigley Field has been nothing special for the hosts this season. The Phillies appear poised for another big win here regardless of the pitchers as they are the hotter team right now. The Cubs have lost 3 straight games at Wrigley Field and the Phillies tend to hit well here. In looking at the pitchers, Taijuan Walker has allowed only 2 earned runs in last 4 starts. In the month of June - 5 starts - Walker has allowed only 16 hits in 30 innings of work. Kyle Hendricks starts for the Cubs and he entered this season off B2B years in which his ERA was at least 4.77 for the year. This season has seen him produce a better ERA but he has an ugly 1.53 WHIP at home including allowing 17 hits in 14 innings. So the road favorite offering nice value here at a great low price. The Phillies also have won 9 of 10 road games including 8 in a row! Time for 9 straight! PHILADELPHIA -117 |
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06-29-23 | Blooming v. Santos FC OVER 2.75 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #224845: Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage Thursday OVER 2.5 -135 in Santos vs Blooming @ Estadio Urbano Caldeira in Santos, Brazil @ 6 ET - Blooming is off a 2-0 loss but, prior to this, they had both conceded and scored in 6 straight matches. We just need 3 goals to be a winner here. Prior to the 2-0 loss, Blooming had seen 16 of last 20 matches total at least 3 goals! As for Santos, they have allowed at least 2 goals in 3 of last 4 matches. They are the big favorite here for a reason however so, even if they concede, look for them to also score well on their way to a likely victory. Hence, I am forecasting at least a 2-1 final with the spark from the managerial change also insuring a bit of an aggressive attacking style in this one as there is some renewed enthusiasm here. Both clubs already destined for early exits from this year's Copa Sudamericana so it is not like there is pressure for defensive intensity here. In other words, look for a wide-open affair with plenty of attacking chances throughout the match. OVER 2.5 -135 in Santos |
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06-28-23 | Dodgers v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 12.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:40 ET - Action on the pitchers. Kyle Freeland has been struggling and is the expected starter here and Dodgers may go with a bullpen game. The LA bullpen has struggled this season and so too has the Rockies bullpen. Only the Nationals bullpen has a higher ERA than the Colorado and Los Angeles bullpens in terms of the rankings this season in the National League. Freeland has allowed 25 earned runs in 34 innings spanning his last 7 starts. He is in trouble again here on a warm evening in Colorado in which the ball should be carrying quite well at Coors Field. Note that the Rockies are #2 in the NL in both batting average and slugging percentage in home games this season. The Dodgers have a .441 slugging percentage on the road this season which ranks #2 in the National League. So both teams enjoy plenty of success at the plate here as both bullpens struggle. Off a rare home shutout yesterday, you know what is likely coming today in Colorado. Games tend to be very high-scoring here. Overall, prior to yesterday's game, the Rockies last 19 games have averaged 11.6 runs per game and that includes both home and away games. The Dodgers have trended under recently but this followed a high-scoring stretch and there is a reason this game is priced this way. OVER 12.5 in Colorado |
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06-28-23 | Phillies -133 v. Cubs | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -135 @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - The Phillies are 16-5 last 21 games as they continue red hot. They also have won 9 of 10 road games including 7 in a row. Regardless of starting pitchers here, though definitely Nola would rate an edge over Smyly in most every experts analysis of these pitchers, I like the road team to roll. Philadelphia is hot and the Cubs have not been as special at home this season as in years past. They are only 20-18 as a host this season. Also, against teams with a winning record they are 16-27 while the Phillies are 22-10 against teams with a losing record this season. Value with the road team at a very fair price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -135 |
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06-28-23 | Tacuary v. Bragantino OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #224817: Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 -120 in Bragantino vs Tacuary @ 6 ET - The last time these clubs met it was a 4-1 Bragantino win in early April. I would not be surprised to see 5 goals again but certainly feel we should see at least 4. Note that Bragantino has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 11 matches. Tacuary has scored an average of 1.6 goals last 10 matches plus has allowed an average of 2 goals in last 8 matches. Per all the above, don't be surprised if each club gets to 2 goals in this one and we see a 3-2 type final. 10* OVER 3.5 -120 in Bragantino |
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06-27-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 +100 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - When the Tigers are entering a road game off a win they have gone 1-6 the last 7 times that situation has occurred this season. Detroit got the big 7-2 upset win yesterday and handed us a loss right here in this spot on the run line but I will come right back with the same thing today. As you might expect with a bad team like Detroit, they don't fare well when off big wins. In fact, the last 4 times they were off a win by a margin of 5 or more runs, they have gone 0-4 and they lost those 4 games by a 27-6 combined score. So this is a great play against situation that is 100% PERFECT since mid-May. As for the Rangers, they are 7-1 this season when off a loss by a margin of 5 or more runs! That includes PERFECT 2-0 when at home and off a big margin loss of 5 or more runs. That is the case here so we are working with double perfect edges and have the better team at home. Rangers are 27-11 this season against teams with a losing record this season. Detroit is 15-29 against teams with a winning record this season. TEXAS -1.5 +100 |
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06-27-23 | Reds v. Orioles -145 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Baltimore Orioles Money Line -145 vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:05 ET - The Reds Andrew Abbott has some great numbers but he allowed 3 homers in his most recent start and is still a rookie. The Orioles Tyler Wells has great numbers this season and more of a long-term track record than Abbott. Plus they have the home field edge here and are hosting a Reds team that has lost 3 straight games. Baltimore has won 24 of 36 home games and are red hot. Cincy was hot but now has lost 3 straight games and this is the right spot for another Orioles win. BALTIMORE -145 |
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06-27-23 | Breidablik v. SP Tre Penne OVER 3.75 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #224205: Champions League | Preliminary Round Semi-Finals: Tuesday OVER 3.5 -135 in Breidablik (Iceland) vs SP Tre Penne (San Marino) @ 3 ET - Breidablik are the champions of Iceland and Tre Penne are the champions of San Marino. Of course neither country is big in population but Iceland certainly much bigger than the Republic of San Marino. So in this case we get line value with the over the way I see it. Breidablik, on the goal line, is favored by a 3-goal margin for a reason. Will this game end 3-0? I just don't see that happening. I am looking for a 3-1 or 4-0 or 4-1 type final here. Any of those options get us the cash with this total at 3.5 goals and, hence, I really like the value here in a match the hosts should dominate. These hosts like to play more aggressive attacking styles so they will not hold back here. Breidablik has been scoring very well and Tre Penne allowed 3.6 goals in last 5 matches in Europa League action and will struggle to slow down the hosts here but the visitors should find the back of the net once as well. OVER 3.5 -135 in Breidablik |
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06-26-23 | Tigers v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Monday Texas Rangers Run Line -1.5 -105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:05 ET - This is a battle of southpaws and the Tigers are just 5-10 versus lefties this season and the Rangers are 14-8 versus lefties. Also, the Rangers are 27-10 against teams with a losing record this season plus they are 24-13 at home. The Tigers are 15-22 on the road and 14-29 against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 5-2 this season when they enter this game off exactly 2 straight losses. In other words, they have had only 2 losing streaks reach the 3 or more mark this season. Heaney holding hitters to a .230 batting average this season and held them to .214 last season. Boyd has a 5.37 ERA this season and the Rangers have the situational edge and pitching edge and overall team edge. TEXAS -1.5 -105 |
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06-26-23 | Reds v. Orioles OVER 10 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 10 in Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7 ET - This one could have a delayed start as it will be a rainy late afternoon period in Baltimore today. But I do expect they will be able to get this one in even if it starts later than originally scheduled. That said, I do not want to miss out on what should be another solid over winner involving Cincinnati. The Reds have seen 6 of last 8 games not only go over the total, the 6 games have each totaled at least 13 runs! Cincinnati has won 12 of 14 games and averaged scoring 6.5 runs in those 14 games. The Orioles last dozen games have seen 6 of them reach double digits. Baltimore's last dozen games have averaged 10 runs per game and considering the Orioles are now taking on a Reds team trending over, this looks like a slugfest. Two solid lineups involved. I like this play regardless of starting pitchers but will mention that the Reds Brandon Williamson has a 5.40 ERA on the season and has been getting hit at a .289 clip this month. The Orioles Cole Irvin has a 7.71 ERA this season and opponents are hitting .316 against him. OVER 10 in Baltimore |
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06-26-23 | Derry City v. Shamrock Rovers OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #205605: League of Ireland Premier Monday OVER 2 -125 in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City @ 3 ET - Shamrock has not been scoring quite as much in recent matches versus Derry City but it is still hard to ignore the fact that the Rovers are the highest scoring team in the league. They are averaging 2 goals per match this season. They have scored 11 goals last 4 matches. Off a 2-2 draw with Bohemians, I look for the Rovers to be even more aggressive in this match. Derry City enters this one off a 2-0 win. In their last road game they lost 4-1. When they face tougher teams the goals tend to fly. That 4-1 loss was to St Patrick's, another high scoring team, and Shamrock should have no problem enjoying success on the attack in this one. On the season, Derry City is allowing 1 goal per game on the road and scoring 1.6 goals per game when away from home. In other words, just can't see this one ending with less than a 2-1 final. Note that Derry City has only 2 draws in 10 road matches this season. 1-1 draw not so likely but would still get us a push here. I am looking for at least 3 goals and the win here. OVER 2 -125 in Shamrock Rovers |
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06-26-23 | St. Patrick's Ath. v. Dundalk OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
Rotation #205601: League of Ireland Premier Monday OVER 2.5 -130 in Dundalk vs St Patrick's @ 2:45 ET - Dundalk home games are averaging 3.8 goals apiece. They have scored an average of 2.2 goals at home. St Patrick's road games have averaged 3.7 goals apiece. Just on the basis of those stats alone you know we are looking at some value here with this line. However, the key to this one is also current form. Not only that, the last 3 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 3 goals. 7 of last 8 Dundalk matches have totaled at least 3 goals. St Patrick's is off a 1-0 win but, prior to this, 7 of last 8 matches for them totaled at least 3 goals. Those 7 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Given current form, history between clubs, this season's home/road numbers, this one is likely to get into the 4-goal range so certainly asking for 3 goals should not be asking for too much. OVER 2.5 -130 in Dundalk |
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06-25-23 | Toronto v. Edmonton Elks +6.5 | Top | 43-31 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
CFL Sunday Edmonton Elks +6.5 vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - Great spot for an underdog win here. An outright win here would not surprise me in the least while at least a home dog cover should be the minimum result here. Toronto is 1-0 on the season but they played a Hamilton team that has been a disaster so far and absolutely the worst team in the league thus far. The Tiger-Cats are now 0-3 on the season and have allowed an average of 37 points per game! The Elks, though 0-2 on the season, have allowed only 19.5 ppg this season. Edmonton is at home and off a shutout loss on the road which is certainly rare. But the two teams they have faced this season are a combined 5-1 on the season. I think the Elks are improved this season even though the results have not yet shown that and I expect them to come up big here on Sunday at home. It is just one of those great contrarian spots I love where you have a unique situation. The Elks are on a long home losing streak and hosting the defending champs yet the champion Argonauts are laying less than a TD. The betting masses likely fooled on this one and will grab the Argos but the ugly home dog should prove to be the play here. EDMONTON +6.5 |
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06-25-23 | Platense v. Arsenal Sarandi OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #208049: Argentine Primera Division Sunday OVER 2 goals +110 in Arsenal Sarandi vs Platense @ 2:30 ET - 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 2 goals and those 4 meetings have averaged 3 goals apiece. Arsenal has struggled on the road but note that they have gone a respectable 4-1-4 as a host and scored an average of 1.5 goals in their last 6 matches on their home pitch. I feel we have excellent value here with this total at just 2 goals. Arsenal is a different club when at home and has been playing with extra confidence when here. However, Platense has gone undefeated in last 4 matches against Arsenal and that is why I certainly would expect at least a 1-1 final here. Looking for at least 2-1 though because Platense is off a 1-0 home victory but has allowed 1.8 goals per match in their last 5 road matches. I do like the fact that Platense has scored an average of 1.1 goals last 8 matches. Definitely expect both clubs to find the back of the net here and then consider the fact that Arsenal has only 2 draws in 20 matches this season and Platense has only 1 draw in 9 road matches this season. That said, you can see why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final in this one. OVER 2 goals +110 in Arsenal Sarandi |
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06-25-23 | Braves v. Reds OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 11.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:40 ET - Levi Stoudt gets the start for the Reds and Charlie Morton expected to start for the Braves. No matter who gets the call here as starting pitchers, I look for these two teams to remain red hot at the plate and I am expecting plenty of runs. From 2020 to 2023, Morton is actually just 4-10 in day games. He tends to struggle more in his day game outings and, overall, he is on the cusp of some real struggles this season too. Morton has a low ERA but he has been hit at a .259 clip so far this season and so he is fortunate his ERA has remained low. Morton is 1-3 with a 4.15 ERA and opponents hitting .274 against him in day games this season. The Reds are so hot at the plate plus they are at home so I am expecting continued success for their lineup here. The issue for Cincinnati however will be that the Braves are likely to keep pounding away at the plate also. Stoudt is a young hurler that has a 10.29 ERA in his 2 games (1 start) so far for the Reds this season. At the AAA level of the minors this season he has as many walks as strikeouts with 26 of each in his 36 innings of work. Atlanta enters this one having won 9 of 10 games and they have scored an average of 8.2 runs during this hot streak. Cincinnati had won 12 in a row before yesterday's high-scoring loss. The Reds averaged 6.6 runs during this 13-game stretch. I am looking for another 7-6 or 8-7 type game here given the above numbers. OVER 11.5 in Cincinnati |
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06-24-23 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:15 ET - The Tigers don't hit very well but this is a low total and a great spot to back them. After a 4-1 loss yesterday, Detroit - who generally is a better team at home - should bounce back here. Pablo Lopez had one good start last five games but in the other 4 he allowed 17 earned runs. It is not as if he is a dominant pitcher. As for Reese Olson, he has been hit quite hard last two starts and both of those were at home. He has allowed 9 earned runs in 9 and 1/3 innings in those two outings and faces a tough Minnesota team here. The Twins have won the last two games by a combined score of 10 to 1. Minny, prior to this, has seen 9 of last 11 games total at least 8 runs. Those 9 games averaged 11.4 runs per game! We should certainly have no trouble getting past 8 runs in this one on a warm evening at Comerica Park for this one. OVER 8 in Detroit |
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06-24-23 | Talleres Cordoba v. Lanús OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Rotation #208045: Argentine Primera Division Saturday OVER 2 in Lanus vs Talleres @ 7 ET - Lanus and Talleres are two of the best attacking clubs in this league. Lanus is averaging 1.4 goals per game and Talleres averaging 1.8 goals per game this season. This total at two goals is a great value because these are two of the hottest clubs in the league right now as well as being two of the highest-scoring teams in the league this season. We'll see goals here. Clean sheet very unlikely and and these clubs are unlikely to draw so I am looking for at least a 2-1 final. Lanus has had just one draw in 9 home matches this season. Talleres has just 4 draws in 20 matches on the season. Each club scores and draw unlikely means excellent value here. Especially this total at just 2 goals. Even a 1-1 draw gets our money back on our bet here but I am definitely looking for at least a 1-1 final here. OVER 2 in Lanus |
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06-24-23 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary OVER 45.5 | Top | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Saturday OVER 45.5 in Calgary Stampeders vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Not going to write a ton here. This is a bit of a contrarian play but both these teams capable of putting up solid points. Calgary scored 26 points last week and Saskatchewan scored 27. The Riders did allow big point totals though too however, and I expect a repeat this week. Calgary's first home game this season was a disappointment but was because they faced a Lions team that has been the best defense in the league so far this season. The Stamps will look to make up for it here and will take advantage of facing a lesser foe this week. Calgary will have a breakout game on offense but the Riders, as they proved last week too, can match them score for score here. That is the reason the line is only in the -3 range on this one too. This will be a close game and should be high-scoring back and forth battle. I am aware of some injuries on offense but there are injuries on defense too and that goes for both of these teams. OVER 45.5 in Calgary |
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06-23-23 | Montreal v. Hamilton OVER 43.5 | Top | 38-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CFL Friday OVER 43.5 in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Hamilton has been giving up a ton of points this season. But they should score well here at home in this one. Couple that with the fact Montreal has played only one game so far and certainly should have fresh legs here, you have the perfect situation for plenty of points and we will take advantage of a low total here. Hamilton's first two games this season have averaged 60 points. Montreal's offense was not great in their first game but they also settled for field goals instead of touchdowns on 4 of 5 drives. So the point total could have been bigger and I have not liked what I have seen from the Ti-Cats defense so far this season. I do expect their offense to have a big game here at home though and we should see plenty of points in this one. OVER 43.5 in Hamilton |
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06-23-23 | Braves v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 10.5 in Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - This match-up features the two hottest teams in the majors and I am expecting plenty of runs as they both stay hot. There are even some 11s out there and we are going to grab the 10.5 for the value here. As for the expected Braves starter, AJ Smith-Shawver, he is still an unproven rookie that has surprised in 2023 compared to what we saw of him in the minors prior to this. I look for him to come back down to earth here. These are two potent lineups and I look for them to cash in on many of the opportunities that they are presented with here. Cincinnati is starting Luke Weaver and he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 9 of his 11 starts this season. Weaver has particularly struggled this month with a 10.13 ERA and opponents hitting .356 against him. Weaver has a 7.75 ERA in his 7 night game starts this season. The Braves have won 8 straight games and scored an average of 8 runs per game in this winning streak. The Reds have won 11 straight games and have scored an average of 6 runs per game during this winning streak. I feel confident we'll see at least a 6-5 type game here but really should see much more in a hitters park with two of the hottest teams in the majors. OVER 10.5 in Cincinnati |
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06-23-23 | Sligo Rovers v. UC Dublin OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #205637: League of Ireland Premier Friday OVER 2.5 in UC Dublin vs Sligo @ 2:45 ET - University College Dublin lost 4-0 in most recent match but, as bad they have been defensively (a key here as well), they had scored in 4 straight losses before getting blanked in most recent match. That said, Sligo is not great defensively and should allow at least 1 goal but of course they are a huge favorite for a reason. Looking for at least a 2-1 final. Note that UC Dublin has allowed an average of 2.5 goals per match this season and Sligo is allowing 1.4 goals per match this season. Sligo should be able to score big in this one but should allow at least 1 goal too. Like the value of the rather low total considering the defensive play of these clubs. OVER 2.5 in UC Dublin |
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06-22-23 | BC +6 v. Winnipeg | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
CFL Thursday BC Lions +6 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - BC and Winnipeg both undefeated this season and I like the fact that the Lions defense has been so strong. Additionally, they have revenge from losing to the Blue Bombers last season in the semi-finals of the post-season. BC is out for revenge here and Winnipeg has been strong but also faced a Hamilton team that is now 0-2 on the season and, while both teams faced Edmonton (0-2 this season), at least the Lions have a win over Calgary and the Stampeders are 1-1 this season. The point is that, while the Blue Bombers are still a solid team, they are a little over-valued here. This is a big number considering the situation and the hot start to the season for BC. Also, Winnipeg was on the road last week while Lions were at home. BC +6 |
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06-22-23 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Thursday OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners @ 7:05 ET - This total has dropped to a 7.5 and is just too low in my opinion. I know both these teams have solid bullpens but I like these two lineups and I like the fact that both teams should hit these starters well. Domingo German gets the start for the Yankees and he just got rocked for 7 earned runs in just 2 innings in his most recent start. Also, just about 3 weeks ago in his final start of May he allowed 4 earned runs to this Seattle. Now in this one the Mariners start Bryan Woo and the rookie right-hander is off a solid home debut but allowed 8 earned runs in about 7 innings in his two starts before that and these were both on the road. So look for runs here as I know this series has been low-scoring but the Mariners entered this one with their last 7 road games averaging 12 runs apiece! 6 of the 7 totaled at least 8 runs and this one will too. Yes I know is cool weather in the Bronx by late June standards but these teams will still hit well here. The Yankees have won 4 of 5 against the Mariners this season and averaged 6.8 runs scored per game in the 4 victories. This one gets both teams back to higher scoring ways based on the pitching match-up expected. I am going action on the pitchers but do like the starters here for a higher-scoring game. OVER 7.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-22-23 | Instituto v. River Plate OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #208025: Argentine Primera Division Thursday OVER 2.5 -145 in River Plate vs Instituto @ 6:45 ET - River Plate is the top team in the league and should win this in a blowout. That means we should see an over even if it is via a 3-0 final. The fact is that this is a blowout in the making and River Plate is averaging 2 goals scored per match at home and, keep in mind, that includes plenty of matches against teams that are much tougher than this Instituto club. They have given up an average of 2 goals per match on the road this season. But they have averaged scoring a goal per match away from home. That is why I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here but 3-0 or 3-1 is also a possibility. OVER 2.5 -145 in River Plate |
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06-21-23 | San Lorenzo v. Estudiantes La Plata OVER 1.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 16 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #208009: Argentine Primera Division Wednesday OVER 1.5 -145 in Estudiantes vs San Lorenzo @ 6 ET - I know this is a contrarian play as not many goals are expected in this match but a total of 1.5 is too good to pass up in my opinion here based on the situation. Estudiantes is off a 1-0 loss and yet they dominated the match in terms of possession and scoring chances. They will find the back of the net here at least once. At the same time, even though San Lorenzo has struggled to score goals, they also have been tough to beat. That sets this one up to potentially be a 1-1 draw at least. Before their 1-0 defeat last week, Estudiantes had scored an average of 2 goals per match last 11 matches across all competitions. San Lorenzo has had 3 consecutive draws and a loss. All 4 were dearth of goals but this was preceded by a 3 match stretch in which they scored at least 2 goals in all 3 matches. The scoring will resume here as this is a battle between the 3rd and 4th place clubs in the table and both will push hard for earning a positive result in the table in this one and these hosts have scored well on their home pitch this season. OVER 1.5 -145 in Estudiantes |
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06-20-23 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:40 ET - My first thought when I looked at this one was possibly playing the underdog Phillies. Suarez has been pitching very well for them while Strider has actually been struggling for the Braves. However, I just can not fade this red hot Braves lineup right now. Atlanta enters this game having won 13 of 15 games. The Braves have scored 7.4 runs per game during this red hot stretch. This includes 9.3 runs per game during their current 6-game winning streak. This total is only an 8.5 and 7 straight Atlanta games have totaled at least 9 runs. The Phillies also have been hot with wins in 13 of 16 games. Philadelphia has scored an average of 5.6 runs during this hot streak. Unlike the Braves, the Phils have been getting better pitching most recently but again, I just can not fade these red hot Atlanta hitters right now. That said, I do expect the Phillies to stay hot also and that means this one should get to 9 or more runs rather easily. OVER 8.5 in Philadelphia |
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06-20-23 | Sweden v. Austria OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Rotation #225459: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Tuesday OVER 2.5 +110 in Austria vs Sweden @ 2:45 ET - Austria has both scored and conceded in each of its 3 Euro Champ Qualifying matches thus far. Overall, Austria has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 14 matches. They are the host here looking to take care of business against Sweden. This Sweden club comes into this one having scored an average of 2 goals per match last 10 matches. Given the above, and the way I foresee this one playing out, a 2-2 battle would not surprise me in the least. That said, is about more than just the scoring here. Not only has Austria conceded in all 3 Euro Champ Qualifying matches, Sweden has conceded an average of 1.5 goals last dozen matches. Really can't see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final and both clubs have some guys back for this one that were rested in most recent matches. OVER 2.5 +110 in Austria |
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06-19-23 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - These teams (and these pitchers!) just matched up. Both Smyly and Bido gave up some big runs in that one PLUS there was a lot of hard contact with line drive outs, etc. The results could have been even worse is the point and now these guys face each other again and those same lineups are getting another quick look at them. I am looking for plenty of runs on a warm evening in Pittsburgh. Also, the Pirates struggled on the road but are now back home where they are a different team. The Cubs 6 of last 7 games have totaled at least 9 runs. Chicago has averaged 7.3 runs per game last 6 games. The bullpens rank 23rd and 24th this season for the Pirates and Cubs this season and should help our cause here as well. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh |
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06-19-23 | Blue Jays -152 v. Marlins | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -152 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Monday Toronto Blue Jays -150 @ Miami Marlins @ 6:40 ET - Berrios has allowed only 11 earned runs in his last 8 starts and those outings have spanned 51 innings of work. Known for some road struggles throughout his career, he has been solid both at home and on the road during this red hot run. Action on pitchers here as I am not overly concerned with whether Bryan Hoeing gets the start or if this is more of a bullpen game for Miami. The Blue Jays and Marlins look similar this season in a lot of categories but yet I look up and down these lineups and I still like the road team much more. Looking at on-base percentage the Jays rank 5th in majors while Miami is 15th. Both teams have been strong in interleague action this season but the Marlins have seen their winning streaks ended at 4 games on 3 of 4 occasions thus far. They do enter this one on a 4-game run. The Blue Jays are off B2B losses and 5 of 7 times this season when they enter a game on a 2-game losing streak they snapped it in the next game. Also, the Jays are off an 11-7 loss to the Rangers and are a perfect 5-0 the last 5 times they entered a game off a loss in which they allowed at least 9 runs. Bounce back spot here makes it 6-0 last 6. Toronto -150 |
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06-19-23 | North Macedonia v. England OVER 3 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #225517: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Monday OVER 3 -145 in England vs North Macedonia @ 2:45 ET - Of course England should roll big here and that is why they are such a big favorite. I do look for them to put on a strong showing as the hosts in this one but don't be surprised if North Macedonia makes the net ripple at least once also. The visitors are outclassed here but they have scored at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches. In their last 9 matches, England had one scoreless draw with USA but has scored an average of 3 goals in the other 8 matches. I look for them to get at least that here. OVER 3 -145 in England |
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06-19-23 | Romania v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Rotatation #225541: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage Monday OVER 2.5 in Switzerland vs Romania @ 2:45 ET - Switzerland is a big favorite here for a reason but I am looking for Romania to get on the scoresheet also and we should see at least a 2-1 final here. Switzerland has scored an average of 3 goals in last 5 matches. Switzerland is off a 2-1 win preceded by a couple of clean sheet victories but this followed allowing 23 goals in 13 matches. They are the much stronger club here and should enjoy success against an out-classed Romania club but the key here is, as you can see, Switzerland is usually good for allowing some scoring as well. Prior to those consecutive clean sheets, they allowed at least 1 goal in 11 of 13 matches. Romania off a scoreless draw but, prior to this, scored an average of 2.5 goals last 6 matches. Look for a more aggressive attack here from the visitors because Switzerland's aggression will force Romania to try and create some opportunities on the counterattack. The big underdogs can not just sit back here. Look for a 2-1 or 3-1 type match to play out here as a result. OVER 2.5 in Switzerland |
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06-18-23 | Hamilton -2 v. Toronto | Top | 14-32 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats -2 @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This has been a very strange start to this CFL season. Usually the odds makers have it right when it comes to setting win totals before a season starts. So far this season has played out in very unusual fashion as we come to the final game of week 2. Even though there were big changes for many teams heading into this season, it is as if last season never ended! Not kidding. Edmonton and Ottawa supposed to be vastly improved yet they are both 0-2 on the season and both suffered double digit losses this week. Winnipeg was supposed to take a step back and BC was expected to have some issues (adjustment time) with the QB (and other personnel) changes yet both those clubs are 2-0 on the season and off blowout wins. Montreal is 1-0 in the east already after being expected to struggle out of the gate. Now you have defending Grey Cup champions Toronto in their season opener at home and an underdog to a Hamilton team off an ugly loss at Winnipeg week 1. Why are the Argonauts and underdog here? Exactly! Well, if the odds makers finally get one right and we finally see a preseason fade actually end up fading in an early-season game, the Argos are going to lose this one. There is a reason this game is priced this way and the Tiger-Cats are a high-quality team that will be ready to respond in this rivalry match-up after last week's embarrassing loss. 10* HAMILTON -2 |
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06-18-23 | White Sox v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 8 in Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox @ 4:10 ET - Yesterday's game went 11 innings. This taxed both bullpens for sure. Additionally the teams combined for 5 of 32 with runners in scoring position! That is a disgusting lack of clutch hits and I am sure today's game will play out much differently after yesterday's total (7 runs) pushed for most totals players. Lance Lynn expected to start for the White Sox here and he is 1-3 with a 10.54 ERA in his 4 day game starts this season. He is struggling overall and Seattle can hit well at home. The Mariners also have a pitching concern here as Bryce Miller is off a strong start but he had been hammered in his two starts leading into that one. The White Sox have hit a little bit better last 4 games and both Chicago and Seattle should do better in clutch situations here after struggling yesterday in the 4-3 extra innings White Sox win. The Mariners have averaged scoring 5 runs per game last 7 games and will bounce back after yesterday's disappointing home loss was filled with wasted opportunities. Lynn should get rocked and the ChiSox bullpen has weaknesses too. The Mariners bullpen ranks in the middle of the pack for bullpen WHIP while Chicago's bullpen ERA ranks them as one of the worst in the majors. This total just too low considering all of the above factors. 10* OVER 8 in Seattle |
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06-18-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Sunday OVER 7.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:05 ET - Action on pitchers because the last time Hogan Harris pitched it was following an opener. The A's may change their mind and elect to do the same here. Yesterday's game went 12 innings. This taxed both bullpens for sure. Additionally the teams combined for 3 of 32 with runners in scoring position! That is a disgusting lack of clutch hits and I am sure today's game will play out much differently. Harris has not been getting many strikeouts but is off a long, successful outing versus the Rays. This was surprising and he had more walks than strikeouts in his only start this season. Also, in his first appearance of this season he struggled badly. Overall, he is a little over-valued right now as he does not get many K's and plus could struggle here coming off such a long outing. As for Zack Wheeler, he certainly is a great pitcher but he tends to be much stronger at home since coming to the Phillies. This has been a trend every season with Philly and he is off a strong road start but this followed struggling in 4 of his first 6 starts away from home this season. Oakland has been playing better of late and the Phillies are red hot so we'll see more clutch hitting and a lot of runs here. This total just too low the way I see it. 10* OVER 7.5 in Oakland |
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06-18-23 | Spain v. Croatia +0.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #235660: Nations League | Final Sunday Croatia Goal Line +0.5 goals -120 vs Spain @ 2:45 ET - Of course Spain is favored for a reason here and they have the long-term reputation and have more resources being a bigger nation. However, this Croatia team is tactical and clinical and will prove very tough to beat. I am expecting either an upset here or for this match to be pushed past the stoppage time mark and end up a draw for grading purposes which of course would mean a win here for goal line betting purposes no matter who prevails after that point. This Croatia club has been very tough to beat and has only lost twice in last 25 matches! Spain has only 7 wins last 14 matches and just 14 victories in last 25. Remember a draw here after the normal added stoppage time would mean a win for us. Given the above numbers and the current form of the underdogs here, we have solid value with the goal line here. CROATIA +0.5 goals -120 |
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06-18-23 | Italy v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show |
Rotation #235663: Nations League | Third Place Playoff Sunday OVER 2.5 in Netherlands vs Italy @ 9 AM ET - Italy's defense has been on the decline and you know Netherlands will want this one in their home country even though it is just a battle for 3rd place. However, Netherlands has not exactly been tight defensively in recent matches either so I expect both clubs to enjoy some success in finding the back of the net in this one. Netherlands last 5 matches, not included added extra time of course (just stoppage time of course), have averaged 3.8 goals apiece and all 5 totaled at least 5 goals. Overall, Netherlands has scored an average of 2.4 goals per match their last 25 as they continue to show their strength on the attack. Italy has scored at least 1 goals in 9 of last 11 matches. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 in Netherlands |
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06-17-23 | Edmonton Elks +7 v. BC | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +7 @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - This is a great spot to face BC. The Lions are off a win against Calgary last week and have a huge game against Winnipeg on deck. Last season BC and the Stampeders and the Blue Bombers finished with a combined 39-15 regular season record. This is considered the Big 3 in the west while Saskatchewan and Edmonton finished a combined 10-26 last season. That said, the Lions could overlook the Elks here and that could be dangerous. Only a goal line stand from the Roughriders prevented Edmonton from notching a win in Week 1. This Elks team is improved and ready to compete this season. I am not saying they win this game outright but that certainly would not shock me. I feel strongly that the Lions are going to be in a real battle here just to win this game let alone cover the spread. The Elks were 4-5 SU on the road last season and the Lions get caught in a sandwich spot here in terms of the scheduling. Keep in mind, BC's game at Winnipeg is coming up Thursday while Edmonton does not play again until Sunday and that is a non-conference home game for the Elks. 10* EDMONTON +7 |
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06-17-23 | Angels -165 v. Royals | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Saturday MLB Los Angeles Angels Money Line -165 @ Kansas City Royals @ 4:10 ET - The Angels won yesterday's game 3-0. The Royals continue to be an absolute disaster this season. Kansas City has lost 10 straight games and they are 9-27 at home and 8-37 against teams with a winning record. Opponents are hitting .299 against Mike Mayers this season plus this 8-year veteran has a 5.10 ERA in his MLB career. The Angels counter with Griffin Canning and he has allowed just 7 earned runs in 24 innings over his last 4 starts so he has settled in nicely. He is facing a KC team that has lost 20 of last 24 games and scored just 2.5 runs per game in last 14 losses. The Royals will be just no match here for an LA team that has won 10 of 12 games and scored 5.4 runs per game last 11 games. Look for a road rout here given all the above. The Royals have lost 10 in a row so this is a play against situation going for 11-0 in terms of fading Kansas City. Lay the road price here. LOS ANGELES ANGELS -165 |
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06-17-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 4:07 ET - I know we lost with this play here yesterday but I will come right back with it today. Walker surprised me with a strong start yesterday but I expect Christopher Sanchez to get hit hard here. He certainly was not overly impressive in the minor this season nor has he ever really been. Sanchez has a 4.36 ERA in his career in the minors. Also, he has a 5.53 ERA at the MLB level. I know Oakland struggled yesterday but the Athletics had finally been playing better baseball the past two weeks and hotter hitting had been a part of it. As for the Phillies bats, they have been hot too and that has helped lead the way to a strong stretch for them the past two weeks as well. I am expecting them to enjoy success against James Kaprielian in this one. Kaprielian has a 2-6 record and a 6.89 ERA on the season and he is 0-4 in day games this season. Without a shadow of a doubt, he certainly has not been overly dominant and the red hot Philly sticks will take advantage. The Phillies are 11-2 last 13 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last 14 games. Oakland, before yesterday's dud, had scored an average of 5 runs last 11 games and they went 7-2 in those 9 games. So both teams have extra confidence at the plate right now and we have a value total of 9 on this one. The A's are off a 4-3 loss and 6-1 loss but this was preceded by 7 of last 11 games totaling at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will get to that mark as well and eventually land in double digits. 10* OVER 9 in Oakland |
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06-17-23 | Moldova v. Albania OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #225421: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Saturday OVER 2.5 +125 in Albania vs Moldova @ 2:45 ET - Albania has a new coach Sylvinho but they faced a tough match-up in their first match with him at the helm and lost 1-0 to Poland at Warsaw. This is a much more favorable match-up here. They take on an outclassed Moldova club and they are at home for this one. They are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for a reason. Look for Albania to be very aggressive on the attack in this one after being shutdown by Poland. In their last two matches with Moldova, Albania has scored an average of 3 goals per match. While I do expect Albania to be aggressive here and enjoy success on the attack, look for Moldova to get at least one goal on the counterattack here too. Albania has allowed an average of 1.3 goals per match last 15 matches. Moldova, off a surprising scoreless draw with Czech Republic, had allowed an average of 3 goals per match in their 10 qualifying matches (FIFA World Cup and European Championship) prior to that one. They will give up some goals here but also should get on the scoresheet as well. That said, excellent plus money option here with the over in a match that should feature an aggressive approach from Sylvinho's group at home. OVER 2.5 +125 in Albania |
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06-17-23 | Scotland v. Norway OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 125 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #225417: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Saturday OVER 2.5 +125 in Norway vs Scotland @ Noon ET - Scotland has averaged scoring 2 goals per match last 7 matches. Scotland is off B2B clean sheets but this followed a 10-match stretch in which they had conceded an average of 1.3 goals per match. Scotland has scored 2 or more goals in 9 of last 14 matches. Considering these factors and the strength of this Norway club with a lot of attacking firepower, I look for an over here. Norway has scored an average of 2 goals per match their last dozen matches. But Norway also has conceded an average of 1.7 goals last 7 matches. This one has the makings of at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. I like the value of the plus money on the offering with this one. OVER 2.5 +125 in Norway |
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06-16-23 | Phillies v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Philadelphia Phillies @ 9:40 ET - I know the Phillies Taijuan Walker is off B2B strong starts but those were both at home. Note that Walker has gone just 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA on the road this season. Opponents are hitting nearly .300 against Walker when he is on the road. The Athletics have finally been playing better baseball the past two weeks and hotter hitting has been a part of it. As for the Phillies bats, they have been hot too and that has helped lead the way to a strong stretch for them the past two weeks as well. I am expecting them to enjoy success against JP Sears in this one. Sears has decent numbers on the season but he did allow 6 hits in 5 innings in most recent start. The start before that he walked 5 in 4 and 2/3 innings! The two starts prior to that combined for just 3 strikeouts in 11 innings so he certainly has not been overly dominant and the red hot Philly sticks will take advantage. The Phillies are 10-2 last 12 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last 13 games. Oakland has scored an average of 5 runs last 11 games and they are 7-2 last 9 games. So both teams have extra confidence at the plate right now and we have a value total of 8.5 on this one. The A's are off a 4-3 loss but this was preceded by 7 of last 11 games totaling at least 9 runs and I feel certain this one will get to that mark as well. 10* OVER 8.5 in Oakland |
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06-16-23 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +7 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
CFL Friday Saskatchewan Roughriders +7 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 9 ET - We get line value here because Riders QB Trevor Harris is listed as questionable for his game. Even if he does not go I would expect Mason Fine to get the start here. He has some CFL experience already and looked solid in this preseason. At North Texas in College Football, Fine had 85 TD passes in his final 3 seasons and had a combined ratio of 54 to 12 over his last two seasons there as his TD to INT ratio was fantastic. I like the fact that the Roughriders were the much better team defensively in their week one win. They held a improved Edmonton team to just 13 points and had a big late-game goal-line stand for the win. Though the Blue Bombers have been so strong in recent seasons, I like the fact that they got the win last week. That was a big game against a Hamilton club that they have faced in 2 of the last 3 Grey Cups. Big home win for Winnipeg and that could leave them a little flat here on the road and this is a tough venue to play at. After Blue Bombers got the big home win in Week 1 plus now having another big home game on deck with BC, don't be surprised if Winnipeg struggles just to win this game let alone cover the big spread. SASKATCHEWAN +7 |
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06-16-23 | Romania v. Kosovo OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #225469: Euro Champ Qualifying Friday OVER 2 -145 in Kosovo vs Romania @ 2:45 ET - Getting this total at a 2, even though we have to lay some extra juice to have it, is absolutely a great value here. Romania has seen 7 straight matches total at least 2 goals dating back to last June. Those 7 matches have averaged 3.3 goals apiece and I am certainly looking for at least 3 goals here. For Kosovo, 6 straight matches and 9 of last 10 have totaled at least 2 goals. These 10 matches have averaged 3.4 goals and I am looking for a 2-1 type match here. Romania goalie Ionut Radu is not on the squad after he was against Belarus so this means Stefan Tarnovanu is likely to get the call here. This will make things trickier for Romania but I do like their scoring options too so look for an entertaining match in this one. OVER 2 -145 in Kosovo |
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06-16-23 | Slovenia v. Finland OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #225445: European Championship Qualifying, Group Stage Friday OVER 2 -115 in Finland vs Slovenia @ Noon ET - This is another case where this is a lot of value with a total at 2 goals. Finland is off a 1-0 victory but, prior to this, 16 of last 18 Finland matches totaled at least 2 goals. 17 of last 21 Slovenia matches have totaled at least 2 goals. In their last 7 qualifying matches, whether for European Championship or FIFA World Cup, Slovenia matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Finland's last 6 qualifying matches in those same categories, before that 1-0 loss, had averaged 3 goals apiece also. I am looking for a highly competitive entertaining 2-1 type of match here. OVER 2 -115 in Finland |
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06-15-23 | Calgary v. Ottawa +6.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +6.5 vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7:30 ET - Like the home dog here. First off, coming into this season, the projected win total for Calgary was 9.5 after winning 12 games last season while Ottawa's projected win total was 7.5 after winning just 4 games last season. Don't let the week 1 loss to Montreal completely take you off the Redblacks here. The fact is Ottawa was strong defensively, much stronger than the Stampeders, and I look for Calgary to be in a war to win this road game - let alone to cover the spread. We are catching 6.5 points here with a live home dog that allowed about 200 yards less than the Stamps last week. Also, still looking for a home win after not getting one all season last year, I know Ottawa is going to be very hungry here. The Redblacks are stronger in the trenches this season and on defense and, even still without new acquisition at QB (Jeremiah Masoli), they are still the live dog here at home. The home opener for Redblacks after going 0-9 here last season, this one means something extra to say the least! Stamps still a solid team but they have taken a step back this year and gave up a ton of yardage last week. More of the same here. 10* OTTAWA +6.5 |
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06-15-23 | Phillies -124 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 3:40 ET - Phillies have been a streaky team this season and right now they are again in one of those hot zones. While I certainly respect Arizona, when you look at their lineup it is much weaker at the bottom than the Phillies. This Philadelphia team is stronger 1 through 9 - definitely the deeper lineup. Also, they rested Alec Bohm yesterday and he should be back in that potent lineup today. The Phillies have won 9 of 11 games and have scored an average of 6 runs last dozen games. Nola is off a tougher start versus a strong Dodgers team but he still has allowed a total of only 54 hits in the 72 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 11 starts. Nola has looked a lot like vintage Nola for much of this long stretch since a rough start in his first 3 outings of the season. Ryne Nelson gets the call for the Diamondbacks here and he has a 6.62 ERA in his 7 homes starts this season and a 1.70 WHIP in those outings. Walks have been a significant issue in his recent home starts and the Phillies have the potent lineup to make him pay. Diamondbacks have now lost 4 of last 5 at home and the Phillies are well worth the short road money line price here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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06-15-23 | Italy +0.5 v. Spain | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Rotation #235655: Nations League Semi-Finals Thursday 10* Top Play Italy Goal Line +0.5 goals -140 vs Spain @ 2:45 ET - Spain only has 1 win last 5 matches and in the 4 non-victories they have scored an average of only 0.5 goals! I like having the 1/2 goal on our side with Italy here. They will be tough to beat and I would not be surprised to see this one finish as a draw after stoppage time. Look for it to be decided in added extra time like yesterday's Croatia / Netherlands battle. Italy has just 3 losses last 10 matches and I like the cohesiveness of their group and this Spain roster heading into this one is much different than the one that ousted Italy in the 2021 semi-finals. Payback time. Italy is the big dog but I see them being tough to beat here and will gladly grab the 1/2 a goal here as the value play. 10* ITALY +0.5 -140 |
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06-14-23 | Rays -1.5 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 -155 @ Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 ET - I know Oakland has won 7 straight games but it is ending here in a big way. Glasnow is 17-4 since the 2019 season and has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball when he is healthy. He certainly looks healthy now as Glasnow has progressively gotten better in each of his 3 starts since coming back from injury. So here you have an expected match-up of Glasnow, 4 losses since 2019, versus Luis Medina who has 5 losses this season alone! Medina is 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA and I also like the fact that 36 of 48 Rays wins by at least 2 run margin this season. 39 of 50 Oakland losses by at least a 2-run margin. The value, even at the -155 price range, is on the run line in this one in what should play out as a road rout here. TAMPA BAY -1.5 -155 |
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06-14-23 | Rockies v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 9.5 in Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies @ 7:10 ET - Yes, yesterday's game totaled 13 runs but had 5 runs scored in extra innings. That is one way to look at it but another is that it was 4-4 through 6 innings. So it was not necessarily a lucky over and I feel Wednesday's will leave no doubt. Gomber is struggling badly for the Rockies and he has a 7.57 ERA this season after a 5.56 ERA last season. Whitlock has been getting hit hard for the Red Sox and that includes his most recent home start too. Also, Whitlock has a 6.46 ERA in his 3 night starts this season and has bene hit at a .354 clip in those starts. Look for him to struggle here and the Red Sox bullpen has been only mediocre this season and the Rockies bullpen has struggled this season. The Rockies have scored at least 4 runs in 10 of last 12 games and of course the Red Sox are a big favorite here for a reason. Boston is hitting .286 at home this season and that ranks 2nd in the majors. The Red Sox average 5.7 runs per game at hone on the year. More of the same here. OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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06-14-23 | Reds v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:10 ET - The Royals have lost 8 straight games but do tend to hit better at home. Also, there is no way I am trusting Lively on the road for the Reds. He is having a disastrous June so far. Also, the Royals Lynch is recently back in the rotation and he is normally solid but has been hit quite hard this month. This one shapes up well for plenty of runs as the Royals bullpen is one of the worst in the league and the Reds bullpen is only a middle of the pack type pen so far this season. Also, Cincinnati enters this one hitting .260 on the road which is 4th in majors. KC has a .403 slugging percentage at home and that respectably ranks them in the middle of the pack. 21 of Royals last 32 home games have totaled at least 9 runs and so expecting this one to get to double digits is certainly not asking too much. Especially true when considering that Reds 22 of last 31 games overall have totaled at least 9 runs. OVER 9 or 9.5 in Kansas City |
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06-14-23 | Croatia v. Netherlands OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 120 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #235651: Nations League Semi-Finals Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Netherlands vs Croatia @ 2:45 ET - In Nations League action, Netherlands has scored an average of 2.3 goals per match! Only the most recent of the 6 matches (1-0 win) saw them fail to get to the 2-goal mark. In last June's Nations League action, Netherlands allowed a 1.5 goals per match average and conceded at least 1 goal in all 4 matches. Overall, across all competitions, each of last 4 matches for Netherlands have totaled at least 3 goals and these 4 averaged 4 goals per match! As for Croatia, they are not known for their attack but I feel strongly that Netherlands is going to force the issue here as this match is in Rotterdam and the hosts will be on the attack early and often. Both clubs are missing a few players which actually could help the over as well. Don't be surprised if a lack of crisp passes leads to some takeaways that allow for great scoring chances on the counterattack in this one. Croatia opened the Nations League action with a 5-0 loss last year but then rattled off an undefeated 5-match stretch in which they scored an average of 1.6 goals. Overall, across all competitions, last 8 Croatia matches have averaged 2.4 goals apiece. That puts this one "on edge" if you will but the hosts help make sure this one gets pushed over the edge the way I see it. Look for a 2-1 type final and at least 3 goals in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 in Netherlands |
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06-13-23 | Rays v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 8.5 in Oakland Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 9:40 ET - The Athletics have shockingly won 6 straight games but I don't trust them to get another win here but also would not want to fade a 6-game winning streak either. What I am forecasting here is plenty of hitting here. This is regardless of the pitching match-up but do not that both Harris and Beeks have unimpressive numbers. In terms of the hitting here, Oakland has averaged 6 runs scored per game in their last 8 games and Tampa Bay has been one of the best hitting teams in baseball all season long and averaged about 6 runs scored per game on the season. The over is the play here as Rays were 9-2 last 11 games before yesterday's loss and did average scoring 5 runs per game during that stretch. Two hot teams at the plate and a rather low total. We'll take it! OVER 8.5 in Oakland |
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06-13-23 | Phillies -123 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday Philadelphia Phillies -125 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - The Phillies lost a tight one yesterday and should bounce right back here. Philadelphia had been hot with wins in 7 of last 8 games. Also, Philly bounce back from most recent loss and also has won each of last two times they were off a loss by a margin of 1 run. The Phillies are expected to start Wheeler here and he has dominated in 2 of last 3 starts. Also, they welcomed Bohm back to the lineup and the and the Phillies pounded the ball in yesterday's slim defeat. The Diamondbacks are expected to start Davies here and he has struggled at home this season with opponents hitting .321 against him in Arizona where he has a 6.75 ERA thusfar. Regardless of starting pitchers, look for the road team to bounce back here at a very fair price. PHILADELPHIA -125 |
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06-13-23 | Marlins v. Mariners OVER 7 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 7 in Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins @ 9:40 ET - First off this is a low total and I like the over regardless of starting pitchers. However, George Kirby is expected to go and he has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 outings. Simply put, he has not looked like the Kirby we are use to seeing. As for the Marlins Edward Cabrera, he is 5-0 at home but 0-4 on the road and he has a 5.91 ERA away from home with an ugly 1.53 WHIP. Miami had just one hit in yesterday's game but this was preceded by a 13-4 run in which they averaged 5.6 runs per game. The Mariners were struggling in the run-scoring department on the road but are now back home and, after yesterday's 8-1 win, are averaging 5 runs scored last 11 home games. Overall, 10 of last 13 Mariners games have totaled at least 8 runs and those 10 games averaged 12.4 runs per game. Just get half that here and we are almost there but certainly we should see much more and this one would not surprise me to double digits. OVER 7 in Seattle |
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06-13-23 | Panthers +161 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday 10* Top Play Florida Panthers +160 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:20 ET - The Panthers are 5-1 this season - playoffs included - when they are off a regulation loss by a 1-goal margin. That is the case here after their comeback versus Vegas fell just short in a 3-2 final in Game 4 in Florida. Even though they are now on the road for this one, note that Vegas was a modest 3-2 last 5 home playoff games before this series. Also, those 3 wins for the Golden Knights were all by just a single goal including 2 of them in OT. So, even though Vegas had big wins in the first two games of this series just keep this in mind about home ice. Also, Game 1 of this series was tied at 2 entering the 3rd period and the Panthers won Game 3 plus very nearly game back to force OT in Game 4. This series has not been as one-sided as one might think on the surface. That said, I look for Florida to bounce back even if Matthew Tkachuk does not play here as they improve to 6-1 / 86% on the season when in the situation noted above. A lot of underdog value here and I will not pass up on that. 10* FLORIDA +160 |
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06-13-23 | Estudiantes La Plata v. Club Atlético Colón OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #208021: Argentine (Liga Profesional) Primera Division Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Club Atletico Colon vs Estudiantes de La Plata @ 5 ET - The last 5 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 2 goals and have averaged 4 goals apiece. Colon has scored an average of 2 goals in last 5 home matches. There are 26 clubs in this league and Colon is one of only 3 that has both scored and conceded a dozen ore more goals so far this season! Look for goals here as Estudiantes also has shown a knack for bigger scoring outbursts of late with 4-0 wins and 5-2 wins among its last 3 matches prior to a scoreless match last week. Colon have scored in 7 of their last 8 home fixtures and even though they are likely to employ a 5-3-2 here, the visitors may continue the 4-3-2-1 system that has helped lead the way to a lot of scoring in recent matches. Also, Estudiantes has scored in 5 of last 6 away from home. More of the same expected here. Colon does have quite a few draws but you can see why I am expecting this match to get to at least 1-1 and then note that Estudiantes has just 5 draws in 19 matches this season. Looking for at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2 in Club Atletico Colon |
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06-12-23 | Phillies +100 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line +100 @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 ET - Action on pitchers. This is essentially a bullpen game for the Phillies as starter Matt Strahm likely to go just a few innings here. He has been solid in most of his outings this season whether as a starter or out of the bullpen. Also, the Phillies bullpen has been much stronger for quite some time now after an unexpected rough start to the season. The Diamondbacks starter is expected to be Tommy Henry here. He has made 9 appearances this season and one of them was a stellar performance but, in the other 8 Henry has a 5.17 ERA. Last year, in his rookie season, Henry had a 5.36 ERA. So, the point is, there is little reason to expect success for him here and the Phillies have been red hot. I know the Diamondbacks have been hot too but it has been other starting pitchers that have helped lead the way. This is not a good set up with Henry on the mound and I look for the Phillies to take full advantage. 10* PHILADELPHIA +100 |
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06-12-23 | Heat v. Nuggets OVER 208.5 | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play OVER 208.5 in Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat @ 8:30 ET - The Heat, not including OT points, have averaged 109 points on the road in this post-season. The Nuggets are favored by 9 here so if Miami hits their road average and the spread is set correctly, Denver scores 118 to 109. That score would crush this total by nearly 20 points. Now I am not saying we'll see exactly that of course but I am saying we have some value with this low total because this series has seen the Heat held to 95 points or less in 3 of 4 games. However, do note that the last 10 times Miami has entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games, they have scored - ironically - an average of 109 points also! So getting past the century mark is not asking too much here. Miami will be aggressive and do everything they can to keep their championship hopes alive no matter how slim they now are. That said, the Heat are going to have to be aggressive offensively because you know the Nuggets will be aggressive in looking to close out this series on their home floor. Denver so dangerous and particularly at home! The Nuggets have scored 113.5 points per game at home in the post-season but also lost to the Heat here in Game 2. The hosts will be more aggressive offensively and the situational metrics are all pointing to the over. 10* OVER 208.5 in Denver |
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06-12-23 | Ukraine v. Germany OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #236809: International Friendly Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -125 in Germany vs Ukraine @ Noon ET - The last 5 meetings between Germany and Ukraine have averaged 4 goals apiece and the most recent Friendly was a 3-3 draw. Looking for a lot of goals here as Ukraine should be bolstered by the managerial change of a month ago but Germany is very tough and at home here and is a large favorite for a reason here. Germany has scored 2 goals in each of their two friendlies this season and, prior to that, their most recent match was wrapping up their World Cup early exit with a 4-2 victory. Goals are likely here as a friendly generally does not bring out the best in terms of defensive intensity. Also, Germany allowed 3 goals in most recent friendly and Ukraine has conceded an average of 3 goals per match in last 5 meetings with them. 10* OVER 3 -125 in Germany |
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06-11-23 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Yankees are 8-5 last 13 games and have scored an average of 6 runs in the 8 wins. Red Sox have not been scoring as well but still have averaged 4 runs per game last dozen games. We have a low total to work with here and the Yankees Schmidt is 1-5 at home this season plus has an overall 4.96 ERA this season. Boston's Bellos is 5-12 in his MLB career plus the Yankees saw him twice last season. He has a low ERA versus the Yankees but has given up 12 hits in 11 innings against him. The Yankees should hit Bello hard and I look for the Red Sox to get to Schmidt also. The first two games in this series have been dead unders but a lot of that had to do with some solid pitchers on the mound. This one sets up much differently. 10* OVER 8.5 in New York Yankees |
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06-11-23 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks -135 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks -135 vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - This is a RARE money line favorite for me in a spread sport. Though I sometimes play money line dogs in ATS sports, I rarely play favorites. But the key here is the value and the situation I am testing. As it pertains to the value, the dominant number on this game is -2.5 -110 for Edmonton. For just 25 cents more (-135 price) we can make sure that a 1 or even 2 point win for the Elks is also a win for us in terms of our bet and remember CFL has the ability for scoring singles (NOT just in the form of extra points) so there are extra chances for games decided by 1 or 2 point margins! Secondly, in terms of SU betting situation, I love the fact that Edmonton is on an 0-17 SU run in their last 17 home games. That is the run I am putting to the test here and it is a SU run, not an ATS run. So let's lay the -135 here. Why? Because why do you think the odds makers would have the Elks favored in a spot like this given that 0-17 SU run? Exactly! Lay it! Edmonton actually looks improved on both sides of the ball and is so hungry for a home win. Also, the Roughriders are without a key WR and a couple of key guys on defense too. They also have a new QB here as Harris came over from Montreal. Look for the Elks to be the hungrier team in this one and look for Saskatchewan to be a little shaky out of the gate in this one based on injuries impacting them a bit on each side of the ball plus Harris still getting acclimated here with the Riders. 10* EDMONTON -135 |
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06-11-23 | Mariners v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 105 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 or 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners @ 4:05 ET - I know the current number on this one, as of 9:30 AM ET, is still a 9 but I would not be surprised to see some 8.5 start showing up. Either way, this is a play for me. Only 1 team out of all 30 had more than 12 hits yesterday. That was this Mariners team and they piled up 16 hits! Even with that the game stayed under the total as it was a 6-2 win for Seattle. That said, I look for this one to make up for that. I know Gilbert and Canning have some solid numbers but, prior to yesterday, 8 of last 12 Mariners games had totaled at least 9 runs. In fact, those 8 games averaged 14 runs and I like our chances of a wild one here. The Angels, prior to yesterday's loss, had won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 5 runs during this stretch. We'll see runs here as the Angels had won 5 in a row before yesterday's loss and the Mariners had 6 runs on 16 hits yesterday. 10* OVER 8.5 or 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-11-23 | Verona v. Spezia Calcio OVER 2 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #201451: Italian Serie A Relegation Playoff Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 in Spezia vs Verona @ 2:45 ET at Mapei Stadium in Reggio Emilia - This is a do or die battle in terms of remaining in Serie A or being relegated to Serie B. This is it and I feel we will see an intense battle in which neither club wants it to come down to penalty kicks. That said, also note that there will be no added extra time in this one. The clubs just play 90 minutes and any stoppage time and that is it. That being said, look for a firm push for a deciding goal in what I am anticipating to be a 2-1 final. We have excellent value with this total at just 2 goals. I know neither club is known for their attacking ability necessarily but also note that this is a neutral site venue and the teams allowed 32 goals and 27 goals, respectively, in their 19 road matches this season. That works out to 59 goals or a 3 goal average per match not played at home. Look for each club to score at least once and then, like I said, we'll see that big push for the third goal as neither club wants their fate decided on penalty kicks. Spezia has allowed an average of 2 goals in last 8 matches and 5 of the 8 saw them allow at least 2 goals in a match! Verona's last match with Spezia was a scoreless draw but the 3 meetings prior to that all totaled at least 3 goals and the last 4 matches prior to that did averaged 3 goals apiece. This one should get to the 3-goal mark as well as Verona has also allowed 2 goals per match last 8 matches. 10* OVER 2 in Spezia |
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06-11-23 | Cagliari v. Bari 1908 OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #201405: Italian Serie B Promotion Playoffs Final Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -135 in Bari vs Cagliari @ 2:30 ET - We have to lay a little extra juice to have the over 2 goals here but it is some added insurance should this match land on 2 rather than reaching at least the 3-goal mark - the latter of which is what I am expecting. One key here is that Bari needs only a draw to earn promotion to Serie A. That means Cagliari must push hard for a goal here. Once they get that I also do not see Bari being denied. Expecting each club to get to 1-1 and then knowing Cagliari must push hard the deciding goal, this could absolutely open things up for Bari on the counterattack. This is why I am expecting at least 3 goals here. Bari has scored 15 goals in last 11 matches. Cagliari has scored 2 goals per match last 9 matches. You know the visitors will keep the pressure on the attack here knowing it is their only chance to advance. That said, Bari did score 30 goals in 19 home matches this season but Cagliari finished the season strong and will make a push of their own in this huge battle for a promotion to Serie A. 10* OVER 2 -135 in Bari |
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06-10-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 in Florida Panthers vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:20 ET - Florida off a 3-2 OT win in Game 3 which entirely changes the complexion of this series. It also was the first time in 4 games that a Panthers game did not total at least 7 goals and we only need 6 to be winner here in Game 4 of this series. I like our chances! The Golden Knights were up 2-1 only 5 minutes past the mid-way point of the game. As you know, Vegas never scored again and went on to lose the game 3-2. That being said, you can bet the Golden Knights are going to be very aggressive here and keep on pushing for goals in this one. But I also expect the Panthers to answer them goal for goal in a highly entertaining battle that would not surprise me to see each team get to the 3-goal mark and end up a 4-3 final. Note that Florida home games in the post-season have averaged 6 goals apiece and the Panthers were one of the highest scoring teams in the league in home games in the regular season! As for Vegas, 14 of their 19 post-season games - prior to the Game 3 loss by a 3-2 count in OT - had totaled at least 6 goals! Also, here is a nice tightener with this one that is 100% perfect in this post-season involving Golden Knights games. In games in which, including OT goals, Vegas was held to 2 or less goals in this post-season, their next game has totaled at least 6 goals all 5 times! After the 3-2 loss in Game 3, look for Game 4 to reach at least the 6-goal mark as this situation involving Vegas games improves to 6-0 in this post-season. 10* OVER 5.5 in Florida |
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06-10-23 | Ottawa +135 v. Montreal | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks Money Line +130 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - The Redblacks 4-5 SU record on the road last season was equal to the Alouettes 4-5 SU record at home last season. Overall though, Ottawa had a tough season while Montreal made the post-season last year. I have had my eyes on this match-up ever since the lines came out for Week 1 and I have no hesitation in grabbing the money line here as feel we will not even need the points. Even though QB Masoli is out for Ottawa, Arbuckle will be stepping in and he is comfortable in this offense. As for Montreal, they have a new QB in Cody Fajardo and they could struggle out of the gate this season. Not only is Fajardo getting worked into a new system, they also have a very young receiving group. Trust me, there is a reason that an Als team that is at home and went to the post-season last year is such a small favorite against a Redblacks team that went 4-14 last season. Don't let the line fool you! 10* OTTAWA +130 |
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06-10-23 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
MLB Saturday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET - Move quickly on this to get a 9 as the line very well could end up on the move to a 9.5 and 9 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals. It looked more like a Steelers/Jets final score (14 to 7) yesterday rather than a Pirates/Mets game but we should see another wild one today. The fact is that Kodai Senga has struggled much more on the road than at home and the Pirates Johan Oviedo had struggled for most of his last 6 starts before coming up with a rare strong outing versus league-worst Oakland in his most recent start. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Mets last 5 games have all totaled double digits in runs and 8 of the Pirates last 11 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one sets up well to be another slugfest. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh |
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06-10-23 | Dodgers v. Phillies -103 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -105 vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 4:05 ET - The Phillies have won 6 straight games. They are 18-10 at home this season and were very strong at home as last season went along too and this helped lead them to the World Series. Speaking of being strong at home, Aaron Nola has fantastic long-term stats pitching in Philly. He loves pitching at home and is 42-18 at home dating back to the 2017 season. A 70% win rate over a span of 7 season is pretty damn good and Nola keeps it rolling here. Bobby Miller gets the start for the Dodgers here and the rookie has been surprisingly strong so far though it has been in limited action - 3 starts this season. Lets not forget he had a 5.65 ERA in the minors this season and also a 4.25 ERA in all minor league action last season. This could be a tougher start for him here with Philly so strong at home and also a red hot team right now loaded with confidence at the plate. One of the reasons the Dodgers have not been as strong this season is the bullpen and that is weakness of theirs this season. Conversely, the Phillies bullpen started the season sluggish but has been really hot ever since and continues to move up in the bullpen rankings week by week. PHILADELPHIA -105 |
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06-10-23 | Inter Milan +1.5 v. Manchester City | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Rotation #224201: Champions League Final Saturday 10* Top Play Inter Milan Goal Line +1.5 -155 vs Manchester City at 3 ET in Istanbul, Turkey - Manchester City is a 2 to 1 favorite on the money line here in the biggest match of the year. However, while everyone is practically handing them the title before this match has even taking place, I have a strong feeling we could see an upset here. Now I am not convinced Inter Milan will do it before extra time nor penalty kicks but I have a strong feeling their tough defensive style of play is going to create headaches for Manchester City. This will keep Inter Milan in this match all the way through. That said, I can not envision City winning this match comfortably, if they even win it all! A lot of value with a tough defensive-minded underdog catching 1.5 goals on the goal line at a reasonable price and so this is the route I am going to go here. Note that, across all competitions, only 3 of last 10 and NONE of last 4 City matches have been Manchester City victories by more than a 1-goal margin. Inter Milan, dating all the way back to mid-/November has had only ONE loss by a multi-goal margin in 42 matches! Yes this is a 41-1 angle in favor of Inter Milan. For sure, Manchester City is something special this season and that really goes without saying. However, this Inter Milan club is tough and even if City finds a way to win this final I feel it will be by the slimmest of margins - 1 goal. 10* Inter Milan +1.5 -155 |
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06-09-23 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 11 in Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres @ 8:40 ET - Move quickly on this to get an 11 as the line is on the move and 11 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals at hitter-friendly parks like Coors Field. The fact is that Darvish has struggled much more on the road than at home the past 3 seasons and the Rockies Gomber has struggled much more at home than on the road this season. Gomber has an 8.64 ERA in his 7 starts at Coors Field. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Padres have scored well in 10 of their last 16 games. Given the set up here, this should be one of those strong games at the plate at a hitter-friendly park and note that they scored 7.4 runs per game in those 10 games. 5 of the Rockies last 8 home games have been very high-scoring and, overall, those 8 home games have averaged 13 runs per game. This one sets up well to be a slugfest that finishes in that range as well. OVER 11 in Colorado |
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06-09-23 | Nuggets v. Heat +142 | Top | 108-95 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Friday Miami Heat Money Line +140 vs Denver Nuggets @ 8:30 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +3.5 is out there) but I am going with the +140 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw their starting backcourt of Vincent and Strus combine for 3 of 17 from the field Wednesday. The Heat also got obliterated on the glass by a 58 to 33 margin as Denver dominated the rebounding department. Give these insane numbers you would think Denver won the game by 30 but actually Miami lost the game by 15. As I mentioned in a prior write-up (and I had Miami in Game 2 and Denver in Game 3), when I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here in Game 4 off the home loss and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 3 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of taking the money line rather than the points, note that the Heat are 6-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 6 times they have entered a home game off a standalone loss. In other words when AT HOME and coming off a loss but NOT on a losing streak of any kind - just a standalone loss - Miami has been PERFECT the last 6 times including 3-0 in this post-season in this situation! Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 7 in a row! MIAMI +140 |
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06-09-23 | Hamilton +184 v. Winnipeg | Top | 31-42 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats +180 @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Hamilton is going to surprise this season and is on their way back up. The odds makers know this too and it is why the Blue Bombers (league best 8-1 at home last season) are barely a 2 to 1 money line favorite over the Tiger-Cats (league worst 2-7 on the road last season). I know we could get about 5 points with the Ti-Cats here but I really do not think we'll need it. This one should be an upset as Bo Levi Mitchell fits so well into this offense and this defense will be much improved this season. Winnipeg had the best record in the league last season but is expected to take a step back this season. The Bombers are certainly still a good team but Hamilton was in the Grey Cup each of the past two seasons prior to last year. It was 2022 that Winnipeg lost to Toronto by a point. But in the two Grey Cup title games immediately preceding that one, the Blue Bombers defeated these Tiger-Cats each time including in overtime in the most recent one. You can bet the Ti-Cats have not forgotten and this is a huge East-West rivalry as a result. Payback time here. No points needed. 10* HAMILTON +180 |
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06-09-23 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
MLB Friday OVER 9 in Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Mets @ 7:05 ET - Move quickly on this to get a 9 as the line is on the move and 9 is, of course, a key number with MLB totals. The fact is that Megill has struggled much more on the road than at home and the Pirates Hill has struggled much more at home than on the road. From a pitching standpoint the set up here is perfect. Additionally, the Mets last 4 games have all totaled double digits in runs and 7 of the Pirates last 10 games have totaled at least 9 runs. This one sets up well to be a slugfest. OVER 9 in Pittsburgh |
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06-09-23 | St. Patrick's Ath. v. Drogheda United OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #205609 - League of Ireland Premier Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -130 in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athletic @ 2:45 ET - 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. Drogheda enters this match with 4 of last 5 matches overall having totaled at least 3 goals. Their last home match was a shutout so you know they will be aggressive on the attack here to make up for that loss. However, they are hosting a club that has one of the best attacks in the league. St Patrick's averaging 1.8 goals scored per match this season and 6 of their last 7 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Drogheda does not possess nearly the same impressive numbers in the attacking zone but Freddie Draper has scored 2 goals in 2 of last 3 matches so they have a hot striker right now to say the least. I am looking for at least a 2-1 final here as both clubs should find the back of the net plus St Patrick's has only 2 draws in 20 matches this season and that is the lowest draw rate in the league. With both clubs scoring and a draw an unlikely result, we'll see this one get to 2-1 at least. OVER 2.5 -130 in Drogheda United |
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06-09-23 | Dundalk v. Cork City FC OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #205613 - League of Ireland Premier Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Cork City vs Dundalk @ 2:45 ET - Cork City has been one of the hottest clubs in the league but only two clubs have scored more than Dundalk's 29 goals this season. I know Dundalk scores much better at home than on the road but 5 of their last 6 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and they have allowed an average of 2 goals per match during this stretch. Cork City comes in hot as they have won 4 straight matches and have scored at least 1 goal in 6 straight matches. Cork has allowed 1.4 goals per match in their last 5 at home. You can see why I am expecting both clubs to score here and note that Cork has had just 1 draw in 10 matches at home and Dundalk has had just 2 draws in 10 matches on the road. We should see at least a 2-1 final here. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Cork City |
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06-08-23 | Cubs v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:35 ET - Detmers is 0-5 with a 5.15 ERA this season. Smyly has allowed 8 earned runs on 14 hits in 10 innings over his last two starts. Both the Angels and Cubs have hit lefties well this season. I know that lately the Cubs have not been scoring many runs but this looks like the right spot for a breakout game on offense. The Angels will pick up right where they left off in yesterday's 6-2 win. LA has scored 13 runs so far in the first two games of this series. The Cubs Smyly had an ERA about 2 runs higher on the road than at home and about 2.5 runs higher in night games than day games when you look at his numbers from last season. That said, Angels stay hot but Cubs get going here too as Detmers struggles continue. 10* OVER 9 in Los Angeles Angels |
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06-08-23 | BC v. Calgary -3 | Top | 25-15 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
CFL Thursday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders -3 vs BC Lions @ 9 ET - Revenge game for the Stamps. They were knocked out of the post-season by the Lions last fall. Both rosters have made some significant changes heading into this season. Early season games can be tough to call but what I like here about Calgary is the focus and drive of this team entering this season after the disappointing way last season ended. The Stampeders should get a huge game from QB Jake Maier here after the tough playoff game against BC. In looking at the Lions, note that QB Rourke was a big part of the BC offense and he is now in Jacksonville in the NFL with the Jaguars. Also, WR Burnham who was a star for the Lions has now retired. So this is a team that has lost some key pieces from the one that knocked off Calgary in the post-season last year. Although Vernon Adams, Jr could surprise at QB, he is a little difficult to trust stepping into this new situation. I am expecting the Stampeders to take the playoff rematch here to open up the season the right way and they should cover the short number along the way as well. The Stamps have the right mix of veteran guys and young hungry talent to make some noise again this season and they get it done at home here to open up the season. 10* CALGARY -3 |
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06-08-23 | Golden Knights v. Panthers -118 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
NHL Thursday 10* Top Play Florida Panthers Money Line -120 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:20 ET - Florida is 9-3 this season when they enter a game off at least 2 consecutive losses and with the most recent loss being in regulation time. That includes 8-3 in regular season and then 1-0 in post-season. Note that the home team is a perfect 4-0 in the Panthers last 4 games. The Golden Knights are 0-2 in the post-season when they are on the road and off a win by a margin of at least 4 goals. As you know, Vegas just blew out Florida 7-2 Monday and this followed a 5-2 win in the series opener. That first game was much closer than the final score would indicate. The 2nd game was ugly for the Panthers and went perfectly for the Golden Knights. Now it is payback time for Florida. Look for Vegas to drop to 0-3 in this post-season when on the road and off a win by a margin of 4 or more goals. Look for the home team to improve to 5-0 in Panthers last 5 post-season games. The 100% trends continue here as it is now or never for Florida truly and I look for the Panthers to respond huge on home ice while Vegas gets caught feeling a little too good about themselves and gets a dose of reality here. There is still some fight left in these Panthers and they are known for being particularly dangerous in the offensive zone in home games. 10* FLORIDA -120 |
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06-08-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
NOTE: This game was originally going to go Wednesday but postponed by the air quality issues due to smoke in the northeast from the Canadian wildfires. I still like this play the same for Thursday and now Tyler Holton most likely will start. He has had success out of the bullpen for the Tigers but he struggled as a starter at the minor league level. Maybe Reese Olson will provide relief here too. Either way, the Tigers pitcher today is an unproven guy and the Phillies have big edge at home per ORIGINAL WRITE-UP: MLB Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -120 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 4 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday and Monday so after yesterday's 1-0 win I look for the bats to wake back up today for Philly tonight. They can carry momentum from those earlier blowout wins (19 runs in 2 games) right into this game Wednesday. Tigers have lost 7 of 8 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 8 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 Monday and then the Tigers again had just 3 hits yesterday. The Phillies have scored 6 runs per game last 5 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 7 home games, Phillies have averaged 5 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers are starting Reese Olson and he is a great story and had a surprisingly strong first start for Detroit in his MLB debut after making some adjustments in the minors. Trust me the Phillies watched what the White Sox did (and did not!) do against him in his MLB debut and will make the right adjustments here. As for Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler, he has a great long-term history in starts at Citizens Bank Park and I expect a strong outing from him. More of the same Tigers' struggles at the plate here in another Phillies home win. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120 |
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06-08-23 | Bari 1908 v. Cagliari OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -50 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #201401: Italian Serie B, Promotion Finals Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2 goals -140 in Cagliari vs Bari 1908 @ 2:30 ET - The ability to get an over 2, even though we lay a little bit of juice to do so, is a solid edge here. I know these clubs saw their two regular season meetings combine to total just 3 goals. However, Cagliari has scored an average of 2 goals in its last 7 home matches. Bari is off B2B 1-0 matches - one home and one away - but prior to this they had scored an average of 2 goals in last 3 matches away from home. As you can see, some 2 goal averages in play for each club here and all we need is a 2-1 final and we are in the winners circle. One could reasonably argue each club has a decent shot at 2 goals in this one. 10* OVER 2 goals -140 in Cagliari |
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06-08-23 | Twente v. Sparta Rotterdam OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #203805: Dutch Eredivisie, Europa Conference Playoffs - Final - 1st Leg Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals -130 in Sparta Rotterdam vs FC Twente @ 2 ET - This is a battle for a spot in Europa Conference next season as the winner of this 2-legged contest will qualify for next season's Europa Conference League. The loser will not have European football next season. That said, it is a pretty big battle and I look for an entertaining first leg. Rotterdam is strong on their home pitch but Twente is in great current form. Don't let the full season road numbers for Twente fool you. They have been hot on the road and they keep piling up goals in recent action. As for Rotterdam, they are scoring an average of 2 goals per game in their home matches this season. Dating back to March, the last 13 matches for Twente have seen them score an average of nearly 3 goals per match! As for Rotterdam, they have had just 2 draws in 17 home matches this season so it is fully reasonable to expect at least a 2-1 final here rather than a 1-1 draw. 13 of last 16 Twente matches have totaled at least 3 goals. Sparta off a 1-0 loss to Utrecht but 12 of 15 matches prior to that totaled at least 3 goals! Sparta scored an average of 2.5 goals per match in the dozen matches prior to the 1-0 loss. Per the above, look for plenty of scoring here. 10* OVER 2.5 -130 in Sparta Rotterdam |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -2 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets -2 or -2.5 @ Miami @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets are 3-0 SU the last 3 times they have entered a game off a loss by 6 or less points. Given that straight up (SU) trend as well as the fact the line here is only 2 or 2.5, I do not have any hesitation in laying the points in this bounce back spot for Denver. Note that they outrebounded the Heat in the Game 2 loss. They also led the game by 8 points entering the 4th quarter. The fact the Nuggets fell short as a result of getting outplayed in that 4th quarter on their home floor will only strengthen their resolve here. The Nuggets were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc in that game and it was the difference maker. The fact the Heat knocked down about 50 percent of threes and hit 17 of them while Denver hit 11 means that the final score would have been Nuggets by 15 if you take the threes out of the equation. Of course you can not do that and I had the Heat in Game 2 on the MONEY LINE as an outright +300 winner and expected them to respond big Sunday. However, I now expect Denver to make adjustments too and they respond here and get the road win. Note that Denver is 7-0 SU when they allow 100 or more points in their prior game. Nuggets D up here and the big road win by 3 or more. 10* DENVER -2 or -2.5 |
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06-07-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals are expected to start Patrick Corbin here. He is struggling again after a rare decent stretch. Corbin has now allowed 36 hits in 29 innings over his last 5 starts. Also, the lefty has given up 10 runs (9 earned) while walking 8 in 11 innings over his last 2 starts. Long-term he has horrible numbers in recent years. Corbin entered this season 17-42 last 3 seasons with a very high ERA each season. The Diamondbacks starter is also a concern here in this one. Zach Davies is expected to get the call here for Arizona and he has struggled since he returned from injury. Davies has allowed 12 hits in 9 innings and is lucky the damage has not been even worse (in terms of earned runs allowed) since he returned from injury late last month. I am looking for the Nationals to hit him well here at home. Davies is a 3-8 with an ERA around 5.00 in his road starts in 2021 and 2022 combined and now this is just his 2nd road start of this season. Washington is decent at home where they have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 10 games. The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in the league this season in terms of hitting on the road as their .424 slugging percentage away from home ranks them 7th in the league. Also, Arizona is averaging 5.33 runs per game on the road this season. Just like yesterday's 10-5 game, I would not be surprised to see each team get to at least 5 runs in this one and that would of course mean double digits in runs here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington |
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06-07-23 | West Ham United v. Fiorentina OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 126 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #235601 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals +125 in Fiorentina vs West Ham United @ 3 ET in Prague, Czech Republic - This is the Europa Conference League (ECL) Final. I know West Ham is the better club defensively but they also have scored very well throughout the Europa Conference League action. Also, Fiorentina is known for their attack and continues to get involved in higher scoring matches. I just do not see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. Note that Fiorentina has both scored and conceded in 5 straight matches. Also, they have scored an average of 2.1 goals per match last 10 matches across all competitions. West Ham, though having struggled in Premier League this season, has scored 2.3 goals per match in the dozen matches in the Europa Conference League action. Before a 1-0 win in most recent match that brought them to this final, their last 6 matches in ECL action averaged 3 goals apiece. We'll see 3 goals here at least the way I see this playing out. Fiorentina does not want this to turn into a grinder and will force the issue with West Ham United in this one. 10* OVER 2.5 goals +125 in ECL Final |
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06-06-23 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 7:05 ET - The Nationals are expected to start Jake Irvin here. Once he got about the single-A level in the minors he has struggled. He went 0-4 with a 4.79 ERA at the AA level last year. Then this season at AAA he was 2-2 with a 5.64 ERA. Unsurprisingly given those numbers, Irvin has also struggled at the MLB level since being called up. He is now 1-3 with a 5.67 ERA in his rookie year at the MLB level and Irvin has allowed 16 earned runs in 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 4 starts. The Diamondbacks starter is also a concern here for Arizona. Tommy Henry is expected to get the call and he has a 5.74 ERA in his 3 road starts this season. Last season, his rookie year, Henry had an overall 5.36 ERA and I am looking for the Nationals to hit him well here at home. Washington is decent at home where they have split their last 8 games and scored an average of 5 runs in their last 9 games. The Diamondbacks have been one of the better teams in the league this season in terms of hitting on the road as their .424 slugging percentage away from home ranks them 8th in the league. Also, Arizona is averaging 5 runs per game on the road this season. I would not be surprised to see each team get to at least 5 runs in this one and that would of course mean double digits in runs here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Washington |
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06-06-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 +105 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Philadelphia is off 3 straight wins and plus their bats exploded Sunday plus yesterday and they can carry momentum from those blowout wins right into this game Tuesday. Tigers have lost 6 of 7 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 7 games. The Phillies outhit Detroit 11-3 yesterday and have scored 7.5 runs per game last 4 games and the first 3 of those were on the road. In last 6 home games, Phillies have averaged 5.7 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out yet again. The Tigers Alexander is 10-22 in his career and is making his first start of this season after working out of the bullpen exclusively thusfar. Alexander has a 6.38 ERA and has been hit at a .303 clip in his 16 outings this season. Walker does not have great overall numbers for the Phillies but, in his home starts, he has a 3.60 ERA and has held opponents to a .191 batting average. More of the same here in another Phillies home rout. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +105 |
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06-06-23 | Wehen Wiesbaden v. Arminia Bielefeld OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #202605: German 2 Bundesliga Promotion/Relegation Playoffs Tuesday OVER 3 -115 in Arminia Bielefeld vs Wehen Wiesbaden @ 2:45 ET - Wiesbaden took the first match 4-0 so Arminia is certainly in a tough spot here. I fully expect that to lead to plenty of goals here. Bielefeld is at home and they have no choice but to go for it and be aggressive. Both clubs have had a knack for allowing too many goals and plus Wiesbaden can play rather relaxed with already having that 4-0 lead and just needing to win this 2-leg battle on the aggregate. That being said, high-scoring match here. Wiesbaden appears on their way to getting back to Bundesliga 2 while Arminia headed for the drop. But, before that happens, look for the hosts to put up quite a fight here on their home pitch. Bielefeld has lost B2B matches by exact 4-0 counts. Prior to this they had gone 11 straight matches with both scoring and conceding. That said, a lot of value in this one as their last 13 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece and you know they are looking for payback here against the lower-tiered Wehen club from Wiesbaden. OVER 3 -115 in Arminia Bielefeld |
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06-06-23 | FC Emmen v. Almere City OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -56.5 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Dutch Eredivisie Promotion/Relegation Playoffs, Finals Tuesday OVER 2.5 +110 in Almere City vs Emmen @ 2 ET - This is a battle for top league in Netherlands and Emmen was in this season and is trying to avoid relegation while Almere City was not in the top league this season and is trying to earn promotion. In these playoffs, Almere City has allowed at least 1 goal in 4 straight match-ups. Dating back to regular season action too, Almere City is on a scoring run which has seen them score at least 1 goal in 15 of last 17 matches. They have scored an average of 1.7 goals in last 3 home matches. Their last meeting with Emmen was a scoreless draw but this followed a 3-goal match and 3 straight 4-goal matches between these clubs. We'll see scoring here. Emmen has scored 2 goals in 3 straight matches and that includes both of their playoff matches. Their last 8 matches overall have averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same expected here as neither club has been good defensively. OVER 2.5 +110 in Almere City |
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06-05-23 | Panthers +125 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Florida Panthers Money Line +125 @ Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:10 ET - When the Panthers are playing on the road and coming off a loss - a situation that has happened 3 times in these playoffs - they have gone a perfect 3-0 in this post-season. Vegas took game one but they got 2 power play goals and an empty-netter in the 5-2 win. It really was a much tighter game than the score indicates. It was 2-2 heading to the 3rd period and I am sure the resilient Panthers are going to bounce back here. Look for them to improve to 4-0 in the post-season when in this situation and notch yet another road win when coming off a loss. Resilience and perseverance are the key words with this Panthers bunch. 10* FLORIDA +125 |
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06-05-23 | Cardinals v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -122 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Monday OVER 9.5 in Texas Rangers vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:05 ET - The Rangers are really hot at the plate right now. They should have no trouble hitting Wainwright here as the 41-year old is nearing the end of his career and has long been known for struggling more on the road. Wainwright traditionally strong at home in St Louis but not on the road. Also, Perez gets the start for Texas here and he has a 6-1 record but has a 4.43 ERA this season. Wainwright has a 6.15 ERA this season. We'll see runs here. Perez roughed up in 3 of his 5 May starts. Wainwright has struggled and remember he had over 325 career starts with Yadier Molina behind the plate. The veteran catcher retired after last season and I am sure this is impacting Wainwright also. In terms of run production, the Cardinals have struggled recently but still have averaged 5 runs per game last 22 games and will get back on track here. But these Rangers have averaged scoring 7 runs per game at home this season and, overall, are one of the best teams in the majors for production at the plate. They stay hot here. OVER 9.5 in Texas |
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06-05-23 | Tigers v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 -115 vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:40 ET - Wentz has a 1-5 record and a 7.28 ERA for the Tigers. Nola has traditionally been a great pitcher at home throughout his Phillies career. Philadelphia is off B2B wins and plus their bats exploded yesterday and they can carry momentum from that blowout win right into this game. Tigers have lost 5 of 6 games and scored an average of only 2 runs in those 6 games. Phillies have scored 7.3 runs per game last 3 games and those were on the road. In last 5 home games, Phillies have averaged 5.2 runs per game. Tigers will not be able to keep up with the hosts in this one and Detroit ends up getting blown out. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -115 |
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06-05-23 | Stuttgart v. Hamburger SV OVER 3 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #202405: German Bundesliga Promotion/Relegation: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 in Hamburger SV vs Stuttgart @ 2:45 ET - Hamburger SV trying to get back to Bundesliga 1 after 5-year absence while Stuttgart trying to avoid relegation to Bundesliga 2 after 3 years in the top flight. This is the second leg of two and and while the visitors (already up 3-0 after taking first leg by that count) will be strong again here playing with a big lead, Hamburger SV was the highest scoring team in Bundesliga 2 this season and I don't see them going away without a fight in this second of two matches with Stuttgart. Note also that the hosts have averaged 2 goals per match this season. The visitors are not very high-scoring but already showed their compete level in the 3-0 win Thursday and certainly can again take advantage of a Hamburger side that does allow quite a few goals. As mentioned entering the match Thursday, Stuttgart was off a disappointing finish to the regular season and would want to rectify that with a strong showing on their home pitch after a disappointing draw in their regular season finale as a host. They did just that in the 3-0 win and now are rolling again with confidence here. However, now look for Hamburger to also respond here in what should result in a high-scoring match as Stuttgart attack is proving potent against this Bundesliga 2 squad. By the way, before the 1-1 disappointment in the regular season finale, Stuttgart's last 8 matches had averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, the last 4 meetings between these clubs have now averaged 4.5 goals apiece! Hamburger finished the regular season with a 1-0 win but, prior to that, their last 8 matches had averaged 5 goals apiece. 10* OVER 3 in Hamburger |
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06-05-23 | Derry City v. St. Patrick's Ath. OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #205789: League of Ireland Premier Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in St Patrick's vs Derry City @ 2:45 ET - Derry City has a great history against St Patrick's but the latter has been in strong current form plus have this match on their home pitch. That said, I do not see either side being denied a goal here nor do I foresee a draw either. That's because Derry City has had just 2 draws in 9 road matches this season and St Patrick's has just 2 draws in 18 matches overall this season. That said, looking for at least a 2-1 final here. Note that St Patrick's has averaged 2.3 goals scored per match as they have gone 5-1 last 6 matches. Derry has had B2B matches in which they did not score but this followed a run of 8 matches in which they scored an average of 2 goals apiece. In other words, there is solid justification to expect either one of, if not both, of these clubs to get to the 2-goal mark in this one. Yes, I know they have a history of some lower-scoring matches when they meet but this is a different situation now, especially with how St Patrick's has responded since head coach Tim Clancy resigned and Jon Daly took over. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in St Patrick's |
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06-04-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Sunday Miami Heat Money Line +300 @ Denver Nuggets @ 8 ET - For those of you that prefer taking the points of course you can do that instead if you wish (currently +8.5 is out there) but I am going with the +300 on the money line here. Note that Miami saw Martin, Strus and Robinson combine for 2 of 23 from the field Thursday. The Heat also had only 2 free throw attempts in the game. Miami also saw Jimmy Butler score just 13 points. All of these insane numbers and yet the Heat still won the game. Wait, you are telling me Denver won and not Miami? Well technically you are 100% correct but the fact is Miami won the game from the field despite those numbers above. Indeed the Nuggets scored 14 more points than the Heat from the free throw line. This means that Miami (104-93 losers in Game 1) actually won the game by 3 points from the field. When I look at this series I feel certain that the Nuggets can win at Miami and the Heat can win at Denver. The Heat will respond here and are very well coached (admittedly Denver is too) and I could see the Nuggets getting caught feeling a little too good about themselves after the way Game 1 went. In further support of this pick and in terms of having the guts to take a +300 money line, note that the Heat are 9-0 SU (STRAIGHT UP) the last 9 times they have entered a game off a loss by a margin of a dozen or less points. The points are a generous offer here for sure but we won't need them so I am going for a triple your money wager here. Take the Heat on the money line as this streak reaches 10 in a row! MIAMI +300 |