Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-14-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Vegas is a huge favorite to win Game 1 of this Stanley Cup semifinals, but after watching the Islanders pull an upset yesterday we’re in no rush to lay such a massive price with the Golden Knights. Plus, Montreal is clearly a team with momentum right now. They’re on a seven-game win streak where at no point have they trailed. The Canadiens have allowed just 2.18 goals per game in this improbable playoff run as goalie Carey Price has looked like his old self with a .935 save percentage and 1.97 goals against average. Only three power play goals have been allowed by the Habs in the playoffs on 31 chances. This will be their toughest test to date, however. Vegas is much better than anyone from the all-Canadian North Division. The Golden Knights just held Colorado to eight goals in the last four games. The Over might be 5-0 in the last five meetings, but these teams haven’t faced off since pre-pandemic. The Under is 22-6-4 in Montreal’s past 32 games as a playoff underdog. Vegas scored six goals in the close out game vs. the Avs, but is on a 5-1 Under run coming off a 5+ goal game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-14-21 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This should make for an excellent three-game series. We’ve got the first place team in the East and the first place team in the Central. For Monday’s opener, it should be an excellent pitching matchup as Glasnow opposes Lynn. Glasnow checks in with a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s been even better of late though with a 1.64 ERA and 0.82 WHIP the last three starts. He has 30 strikeouts in 22 innings and allowed only four runs. That said, Lance Lynn has perhaps been even more dominant. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in every start but one this season. He’s yet to allow more than three. Over his last seven starts, Lynn has given up a total of five earned runs. In the past eight games for both teams, the respective staffs have held the opposition to below a .210 batting average. Five of the last seven games have seen the White Sox give up two runs or less. Tampa has the best bullpen ERA and is 1.59 the past 17 games. Given all of the above, how do you not take the Under here? Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets OVER 222 | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Phoenix Suns had not made the playoffs in over a decade entering 2020-21. But they had no problem ending the league’s second longest postseason drought, going 51-21 and finishing behind only the Jazz in the Western Conference standings. One more win and they’re in the Conference Finals (against either Utah or the Clippers), which is how far they made it in their last postseason run with Steve Nash back in 2010. We know we can count on the Suns to score tonight. They’ve reached 113 points in five straight games and average 114.6 points/game for the year. It’s Denver that’s been a problem for Over bettors the last two games. They’ve averaged just 100 points/game. That’s well below their season average. They average 117.5 per game at home. It was a 41.1 FG% in Game 3 as Nikola Jokic’s teammates didn’t step up to support him on the night he was awarded the league’s MVP award. While the Under is 2-0 in the previous two games, it’s been close both times. Denver’s role players are likely to step up tonight as the season is on the line. That’s how this one goes Over. The Nuggets are 10-5 Over after a loss by 10 or more points. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-13-21 | Rockies v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Colorado continues to be an absolute horror show on the road. They are 5-26 away from Coors Field. Yesterday was even worse than usual, which is really saying something, as they lost 10-3 to the Reds. The last three days have seen them outscored 32-12 including 21-8 in the two games in Cincinnati. The Rockies have now hooked up with the Reds six times in 2021 and at least 11 runs have been scored in every game. Four of those were in Coors, but the two here in the Queen City have seen 16 and 13 total runs scored. So you can’t just attribute the scoring to Denver. The Reds have horrible pitching; they’ve allowed more runs than all but two NL teams (Colorado being one of them). Tony Santillan is being called into duty for his first career big league start on Sunday. While it may seem tough to make a projection on him for this game, we know the Over is 21-8-1 for the Reds after a game where they scored five or more runs. They got to 10 yesterday without even hitting a single home run. It was their 10th game this season scoring 10 or more runs. The Reds give up more than six runs per game at home. Senzatela has a 6.75 ERA and 1.90 WHIP on the road for Colorado. This will clearly be a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-12-21 | Russia v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 238 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* On OVER If you don’t know, Belgium is the #1 ranked team in the world entering Euro 2020. In qualification for this tournament, they ended up with the maximum 30 points. They are unbeaten in their last nine matches and considered the favorite to win Group B. Not all the news is great though as playmaker Kevin De Bruyne is out due to facial fractures sustained in the Champions League Final. But we expect the Red Devils to still score multiple goals in this Euro Cup opener with Russia. This is typically a high-scoring side and they beat Russia twice - 4-1 and 3-1 - during qualification. Those are the only losses sustained by Russia during Euro Cup qualification, however, and we look for them to score a goal in this one. This match is in St. Petersburg and it’s been awhile since the Russians failed to score a goal in a match. There was a 2017 International Friendly between these two sides that ended up 3-3. Expect some fireworks. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks OVER 224.5 | Top | 127-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Sixers seem to be firing on all cylinders offensively in these playoffs. They are averaging more than 123 points/game and have shot almost 54 percent from the field in the first two games vs. Atlanta. Joel Embiid is averaging 39.5 points/game for the series and is showing no real ill-effects from the cartilage issue that was thought to be a problem last week. Atlanta has no answers for stopping Embiid and they just took another hit at the defensive end with De’Andre Hunter having to undergo season-ending surgery. Hunter was arguably the team’s best individual defender. The good news for the Hawks is that the next two games are at home where they have won 13 straight times. Their season scoring average at home is 115.1 points/game. Trae Young missed six of his seven three-point tries in Game 2. You’ve got to think he’s going to bounce back with a big game tonight. Philadelphia has scored at least 114 points in every playoff game. This may not end up as high scoring as Game 1, but it will be higher scoring than Game 2 and that means OVER. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Despite Brooklyn shooting a blistering percentage from the field, the Under is 2-0 in their series with Milwaukee. Credit the blowout nature of the two games for some of that. Game 1 was on pace to go Over through three quarters. But then the fourth happened and only 40 total points were scored. We were still fine with how things played out; we had the Nets and the win was a lot easier than the 115-107 final score would seem to indicate. Game 2 was never close as Brooklyn led by 19 after one quarter, 26 at halftime and won by 39. Milwaukee never scored more than 24 in any quarter and ended up with a season-low 86 points for the game. It was only the fifth time in 2020-21 that they were held below 100. The other four all saw them score at least 96 points. After they went 14 for 57 on three point shots in the first two games, look for that facet of the game to improve by a lot now that the series heads to Brew City. This is a team that shoots almost 49% overall and 40% from three at home. Their season scoring average at the Fiserv Forum is 120.8 points/game. Brooklyn, even without James Harden, is going to keep shooting the ball well. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Game 1 went Over, which is par for the course for these teams as that’s the way the last three meetings have gone as well as six of the last seven here in Phoenix. But we believe Game 2 will go a bit differently. Phoenix shot really well in Game 1, making 54.1 percent of their attempts. Denver wasn’t too far behind at 46.7%. It’ll be difficult for both teams, particularly Phoenix, to match those percentages. As for Denver, they’ve gone Over in all their playoff games but one. But as they found out Monday, they are now playing the Suns and not the Blazers. Portland had the worst defensive efficiency rating of any playoff team. So it was only logical that MVP Jokic and his teammates had their way offensively with them. But in seven playoff games, the Suns are allowing less than 100 points/game. They are only scoring 106.6 per game themselves though. Can they really count on 23 points again from Mikal Bridges? Probably not. Four starters (Bridges, Ayton, Paul & Booker) combined to shoot 33 of 51 (64.7%). No way we see that again. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz UNDER 220.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. But with just one day off, we think it’s going to be extremely difficult to match that against Utah in Game 1 of the second round. But the good news for Los Angeles is that Utah hasn’t played in six days and thus is also likely to start slow offensively. It was a similar amount of time off that the Jazz had going into the first round. In Game 1 of that series with Memphis, they turned in their lowest scoring effort of just 109 points. Them and the Grizzlies found a way to sneak Over in all five games that they played, but we expect a different scenario to play out here with the Clippers. In the last five games, the Clippers held Dallas to an average of 100.4 points/game on just 42.3% shooting. Mike Conley is questionable tonight for Utah and that would be a big loss. Conley had a great first round series against his former team. On the bright side for the Jazz, they give up only 105.2 points/game at home. The Under is 5-1 the last six times the Clippers have been underdogs, which doesn’t happen often. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Royals v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 101 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We also like this Royals-Angels game to go Over on Monday. Even after a 2-1 loss Sunday, Kansas City has averaged 6.9 runs over its last seven games. The Over is 7-1-2 their L10 games. They had a seven-game stretch of scoring at least five runs before losing Saturday and Sunday. However, the biggest news out of Kansas City for this game is that one of their top prospects will be starting. Jackson Kowar dominated down at Triple-A Omaha, but this is the big leagues now and we expect him to give up some runs. The Angels are a really solid club offensively when they are at home. They put up 5.4 runs/game in Anaheim. Only three teams average more at home and two are Colorado and Toronto, both of whom play in hitter friendly parks. While we like Dylan Bundy to pick up his first win of the season today for the Angels, it is somewhat difficult to look past his 6.49 ERA. It’s going to take runs for the Angels to win this game and we think they’ll get them. One of Bundy’s better starts this year came against the Royals. So go with the Angels and the Over in Monday’s series opener. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Bucks v. Nets UNDER 234.5 | Top | 86-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The pace was furious, but slowed down in the fourth quarter and the end result was that the Bucks and Nets went Under in Game 1. After 62, 62 and 58 combined points were scored in the first three quarters, there were only 40 in the fourth. While none of the quarters in tonight’s Game 2 may end up as low scoring as the fourth was on Saturday, we also don’t think the pace will be quite as furious as we saw early on in Game 1. The big story is James Harden being OUT for Brooklyn due to hamstring tightness. Harden missed all but one possession in Game 1 and while the Nets still scored 115 points, that’s below their season average and they shot 46.9%. Durant and Irving went a combined 23 of 51. But the big surprise was Griffin and Harris going 14 of 24 overall and 9 of 18 from three. We just don’t see those two doing that again. Milwaukee’s three-point shooting was an issue in Game 1 as they missed 24 of 30 attempts. They also were 11 of 19 from the FT line. While those percentages probably will improve, it’s still a very high total that we’re dealing with and we don’t see 15 more total points scored than what we saw in Game 1. Milwaukee is 4-0 Under off a loss. The 115 points they allowed in Game 1 were a playoff high (previous high in regulation was 103). Brooklyn has allowed an average of 104.5 points in four playoff home games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-07-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is Miami’s second trip to Fenway Park in the last 11 days. The first one did not go well as they lost both games. That started a free fall as the Marlins wound up losing eight in a row, a streak that didn’t end until yesterday’s 3-1 win in Pittsburgh. However, this time they may be catching the Red Sox in a favorable spot. Boston went 3-0 over the weekend at Yankee Stadium and that’s a high that will be difficult to come down from. The previous two games between these teams also both stayed Under. The final scores were 5-2 and 3-1. The Marlins lack of offense was odd considering they get to play with a DH. Expect more runs from them the second time around at Fenway. Nick Pivetta, despite owning a 9-2 team start record, has not exactly been a dominant starter for Boston. The Over is 5-1 in his six home starts and his ERA in his last three overall is 5.29. We don’t think the Red Sox will have much difficulty scoring runs either as they are putting up 5.2/game at Fenway. They averaged six per game over the weekend against Yankees pitching. Pablo Lopez, who starts Monday for Miami, has twice allowed six runs in a start this year. Both times were on the road. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Jets v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Carey Price’s eighth career playoff shutout gave Montreal a 2-0 series on Friday. It was 1-0 Montreal in Game 2, the lone goal actually coming when the Habs were playing short-handed. That was a sharp contrast to Game 1, a 5-3 game that featured two four goal periods. Price made 30 saves in Game 2. Montreal got off only 24 shots though, so it was a very fortunate win for them. They have not trailed at any point during their 5-0 playoff run, something that has not been done by any team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs since 2012. The Under is 10-3-1 in Montreal’s last 14 home games and 4-0 in Winnipeg’s last four road games. Stasny may return for the Jets tonight, but Scheifele remains suspended. So they are thin at the center line position. We expect goalie Connor Hellebuyck (.940 save percentage in the playoffs to step up in this one as well. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 210.5 | Top | 111-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The only Game 7 of the first round comes from a series where the road team is 6-0. That had never happened before the Mavs and Clippers, but here we are. It’s a series where we’ve gone 6-1, our only loss coming with Dallas in Game 6 as we had expected them to break “the curse” of the home team. That obviously did not happen. But we are 4 for 4 when playing the total. We had the Under in Games 1, 4 and 5 so that’s been our favorite bet throughout the series. Sharp money has definitely hit the Under hard for Game 7, which should not be a surprise. The Under has hit each of the last three games (Game 6 ended up being 104-97), none of which have exceeded 205 total points. Also, Unders have done historically well in Game 7’s, hitting over 60% of the time. Dallas is making only 43.9% of their shots the last five games after a hot start to the series. The Clippers have not been hitting their threes as Game 5 saw them plummet down to 29.4 percent (10 of 34) from that range. As we’ve stated before, the Mavs typically go Under when they’re underdogs. That record now stands at 23-7 for the year. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER Jacob deGrom is pitching Saturday night for the Mets and even though he’s facing San Diego, we’ve got a very low total on our hands here. We’ll still go Under. deGrom has a 0.71 ERA and a 0.57 WHIP. There has been one time in eight starts that he gave up more than one run and the three he allowed that day (at Colorado) were all unearned. So that’s just four earned runs he’s given up in 2021. But deGrom is not the only reason we like this game to go Under. San Diego will be sending Joe Musgrove to the mound. In addition to throwing the franchise’s first ever no-hitter back on April 9th at Texas, Musgrove has given San Diego a 2.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. His numbers over the last three starts are even better than deGrom’s. The Padres only give up 2.8 runs/game at home. That coupled with the best pitcher in baseball make this an easy call on the Under. Expect very few runs to be scored tonight. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER As we said in the Game 2 analysis, Colorado looks like the team to beat in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. They are 6-0 in the playoffs and have scored 30 goals. They did need overtime to win Game 2 over Vegas in what was their lowest scoring effort of the postseason (three goals). The Avalanche have not lost a game since May 5th and are 14-1 L15 overall. Averaging 5.0 goals/game in the playoffs and 3.7 for the year, there’s no doubt with us that the Avs are likely to score three or more this evening. When on a win streak of three or more games, the Avs are 16-4 to the Over this year. Vegas is back home now - where they’ve always had an advantage. It may not be enough for them to overcome this juggernaut, but look for the Golden Knights to score as they are averaging 3.4 goals/game in Sin City. The last time they played at T-Mobile Arena, they scored six times in a Game 7 victory over the Wild. Play on OVER AAA |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers UNDER 228 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There’s been lots of scoring in the Nuggets-Blazers series, but Game 5 was the peak as the teams went into double overtime and combined for 287 points. Damian Lillard had 55 of those, but his team lost 147-140. It was 121-121 at the end of regulation, so even without OT it would have been the highest scoring game of the five so far. Only Game 4 has gone Under. That happened to be the last time they played in Portland, which is where Game 6 is tonight. Denver scored just 95 points in Game 4. Game 5 happened to be the first time in the series where both teams shot better than 43 percent from three. So that isn’t likely to happen again. Lillard isn’t going to score 55 again and Denver’s supporting cast around Nikola Jokic isn’t going to produce here like they did at home. Four Denver guards - Rivers, Campazzo, Morris and Howard - have combined to shoot 42% from three in the series, which cannot possibly continue. We think there’s a good shot tonight ends up being the lowest scoring game of the series so far. Portland is 5-1 Under after allowing 130 or more points. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-02-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER We’ve won once with Dallas in this series (Game 2), once with the Clippers (Game 3) and once with the Over (Game 2). But the Under is something we’ve won with twice (Games 1 and 4) and that’s how we’re playing Game 5 tonight between the Mavs and Clippers. The home team is 0-4 SU/ATS in this series with the Clippers having come back from an early 0-2 hole. They dominated Game 4 in Dallas, winning by 25 and holding the Mavs to a series-low 81 points. The Mavericks shot just 34.8 percent overall and were 5 of 30 from three point range. Luka Doncic was dealing with neck pain and had his least productive game of the series. The Under is now 22-6 this season in games where Dallas is the underdog. The Clippers are 15-5 Under in their past 20 games. We don’t think that LA can continue shooting 50% like they have over the course of the first four games. They are an underrated team defensively as they allowed the eighth fewest points per possession in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-01-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 207.5 | Top | 85-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Lakers seemed to be well in control of this best of seven series. Then they lost Game 4. In that 100-92 setback, Anthony Davis strained his left groin and did not play in the second half. Already nursing an ankle injury, it seems doubtful that Davis will play tonight. The Lakers have not shot the ball well from three point range in the series, making only 29.1 percent of their attempts. This is a series where the losing team has been held below 100 points in three of the four games. There’s been one Over and that was Game 2 where a bunch of late free throws pushed the scoring past the number. Phoenix has shot 32.1 percent or worse from three in all but one game. Chris Paul is not 100 percent for them. Seeing as how none of the four games have had more than 211 total points scored and two have had less than 200, we’re going Under for Game 5. The Lakers are 28-9 Under this year vs. teams with winning records. They are 9-4 Under off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on UNDER AAA |
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06-01-21 | Angels v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Some fascinating trends to consider when playing the total in this Angels-Giants game today. The Angels have gone Under in five straight games. They could only manage one run in yesterday’s loss to the Giants. Tuesday’s starter Heaney is 7-0 Over his last seven starts, but neither his WHIP or ERA are all that terrible. Starting for the Giants will be Alex Wood and the Under is 4-0 his last four starts. The final scores of those four games were: 3-1, 4-1, 1-2 and 3-4. So no more than seven runs in any of them. There were seven total runs scored in yesterday’s game, six of them by San Francisco. The Angels don’t have Mike Trout (injured) and can’t use the designated hitter in this series. So their offense is severely weakened right now. Ohtani is relegated to being a pinch-hitter. Visiting teams are scoring just 3.3 runs/game in San Fran this year. So as long as the Giants offense doesn’t go off, and we don’t think it will, this game is staying Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-31-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Toronto fans have to be getting uneasy as their team has lost two straight overtime games and now the series with Montreal comes down to a winner take all Game 7. Those fans can take solace in the fact Vegas was also in this position and the third time turned out to be the charm when it came to putting Minnesota away. Like the Knights, the Leafs get the deciding game on home ice. They’ve outshot Montreal in the series and have outscored them 17-11. Seven of Montreal’s 11 series goals have been in the last two games, two of those obviously game winners in OT. While we certainly favor Toronto tonight, the money line is just a little too rich for our blood. We like the Under more anyway as Habs goaltender Carey Price is doing “Carey Price things” with a .926 save percentage for the series. The Under is 20-5-4 in Montreal’s last 29 playoff games as the underdog. The Under is also 8-3-1 the previous 12 Montreal vs. Toronto clashes. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Clippers are back in this series after winning Game 3 118-108. The last two games have both gone Over as Dallas won Game 2 127-121. We had the Over in that game as well as the Under in Game 1, which was a 113-103 win for the Mavs. After cashing the Clippers in Game 3, it is back to the total for Game 4 and we are taking the Under in this one. The Clippers shot 57% in Game 3. No way they’ll do that again. Plus, the Mavericks have to start cooling off from behind the three point line. In the series, they are 55 of 109. That’s over 50%! They made only 18 of 47 two-point shots in Game 3. Dallas went from 58% in Game 2 to 44% in Game 3 on all field goal attempts. We expect a similar decrease tonight on the Clippers side after that 57% shooting on Friday night. The Under is 20-7 in Dallas past 27 games as an underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-30-21 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 229 | Top | 141-126 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It took a Herculean effort from Jayson Tatum (50 points!) for the Celtics to win Game 3, 125-119 as a seven-point underdog. We don’t think Tatum will be going for 50 again nor do we think Boston will go 16 of 39 as a team from three-point range again. The Celtics were 50% overall from the field in Game 3, a number they weren’t close to in Games 1 or 2 where they shot 36.9% and 42.4% respectively. Even if you assume Kemba Walker shoots the ball better today compared to Game 3, it’s probably a net loss in offensive production when you factor in Tatum’s likely regression. Same thing with Brooklyn’s Kyrie Irving, who did not shoot the ball well in the last game. But Kevin Durant and James Harden combined for 80 points. Will they do that again? Unlikely. The Nets’ own three point shooting (now over 43% the past two games) is probably going to start going down as well. The Under is 4-1 the last five times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-30-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The second round of the NHL Playoffs is underway and the two teams from the Central that we expected would face off - Carolina and Tampa Bay - will do so. The Hurricanes finished first in the division in the regular season with 80 points. But the third place Lightning were not all that far behind with 75. The ‘Canes might be the division champs, but the Lightning won the Stanley Cup last year and are slight favorites to win the series, despite not having the home ice advantage. We like the Over in Game 1 as Tampa Bay scored at least three goals in five of the six first round games vs. Florida. Four times they scored four or more. Nikita Kucherov is back and led the league with 11 points in Round 1. Carolina scored three or more goals in all six of its first round games with Nashville. They are probably thrilled not to be facing Nashville’s Juuse Saros anymore. If both teams get to three (goals) today, it’s a guaranteed Over and we think there’s a good chance of that happening. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The first two games of this four game series have produced just five runs apiece. All five were produced by the home team (Seattle) in Thursday’s game while things were a little tighter last night. But Seattle still won 3-2, handing Texas its fourth straight loss. Look for the scoring to pick up Saturday though. Neither starter is all that impressive with Foltynewicz’s 1.64 WHIP on the road for the Rangers really sticking out. This is probably a good time to bet against Foltynewicz as he’s coming off his best start of 2021. He has yet to pitch two straight quality starts. A 7.43 ERA vs. Seattle (four appearances against them) is another bad sign. Seattle is starting to hit better after a comically bad start to the season. But they are 0-3 in Justin Dunn’s last three starts with the opposition averaging seven runs per game. These teams have combined to go 9-0 Over their L9 Saturday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 210 | Top | 95-109 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The series is knotted at 1-1 after the Lakers took Game 2 by a score of 109-102. We feel sorry for anyone who took the Under in Game 2 as some questionable late fouling by the Lakers, who were ahead(!), resulted in some “needless” free throws that sent the game Over. We’ll be going Over for Game 3 though as the shooting - particularly from three-point range - is likely to improve here in Los Angeles. Through two games, the two teams have combined to shoot a woeful 34 of 113 on three-point attempts. That’s just above 30 percent. For the year, Phoenix makes 37.6% of its threes while the Lakers are at 35.2%. The Over is 10-2 in the Suns last 12 games and in road games, the average number of total points per game scored is 225.4. Overall scoring also rises when the Lakers play at home. They average four more points/game themselves while also giving up about 2.5 points/game more. Look for improved three-point shooting from both sides in Game 3 and this one to go Over a pretty low total. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Atlanta won Game 1 107-105 thanks to a last second Trae Young go-ahead basket. The game just stayed Under the 214.0 point total. Both the Knicks losing and the game staying Under can probably be pinned on the atrocious shooting of Julius Randle, New York’s leading scorer who went 6 of 23 from the field. Our belief is that Randle is going to play better in Game 2. Whether or not that leads to a Knicks victory remains to be seen. Atlanta averages 113.6 points per game. These teams have played four times in 2021. Sunday was the lowest scoring of the four. Each of the three regular season games saw at least 221 total points scored. The highest scoring of the bunch, a 137-127 Knicks win, did go to overtime. But that game was 122-122 at the end of regulation. Before Sunday, the previous five meetings here at Madison Square Garden had all topped the O/U line. This is a low total for the Hawks as the average total for their games this season has been 226.5. The games themselves average 224.9 points/game. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 216 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We won with the Under in Game 1 of this best of seven series, but it’s time to go Over in Game 2. The Clippers have now gone Under in 11 of the last 13 games, but they are going to shoot the ball better tonight compared to Game 1. How could they not? They were only 11 of 40 from three-point range in that first game and this was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league in the regular season. Leonard and George were a combined 3 of 14 from downtown. Maybe Dallas doesn’t match its shooting from the first game, but they should shoot the ball well again. Game 1 was 60-55 at half and on pace to go Over. The Over is still 6-1 in the Mavericks last seven road games. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-24-21 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-132 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Even with overtime, these teams only combined for 216 points in Game 1. Milwaukee was horrendous from three-point range, missing 26 of its 31 attempts. But they still won 109-107. Miami was our 10* Game of the Month, so the ATS result was “A-ok” on this end. We’re less bullish on the Heat for Game 2. But what we do like is the Under. The Under is 3-0 the last three meetings. While the Bucks made only five three pointers in Game 1, the Heat made a franchise record 20. They won’t be matching that in Game 2 and what’s troubling is they only made 32.7% from two point range. They finished with only 24 points in the paint. Jimmy Butler shot 4 of 22 in the game. Bam Adebayo wasn’t much better, going 4 of 15 and finishing with only nine points. On the other side of the coin, the Heat did defend Giannis Antetokounmpo well. That’s similar to last postseason when they upset the Bucks. Antetokounmpo did score 26 points to go along with 18 rebounds, but on 10 of 27 shooting. The Under is 6-2 in the Bucks last eight home games. The Under is also 6-2 the Heat’s last eight as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After three one-goal games to open the series, Boston won in commanding 4-1 fashion in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead. They can knock the Capitals out on Sunday with a fourth straight win. We like the Over in Game 5 as there have been at least five goals scored in every game so far with a series-high seven scored in Game 2. Obviously, we need more than five to cash this bet. We had the Over in Game 2 after winning with the Under in Game 1. While four of Game 4’s five goals came on the power play, Boston did get off 37 shots. It was noted just about everywhere how “lifeless” Washington seemed at the start of Game 4. We expect more spirited play tonight with the season on the line and all their skaters back and healthy. Having averaged 32 shots per through the first four games, you’d think the Caps would be averaging more than 2.2 goals per game. Again, look for them to break through in the scoring department. Boston is averaging 38.5 shots per game in the series and should have no trouble scoring either. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Not sure if you can call the AL East the “best” division in baseball right now (NL West?), but it is the deepest as every team besides Baltimore has legit postseason aspirations. Just look at Toronto, who has a +37 run differential, but is now stuck in fourth place after losing three straight games. The most recent loss was 9-7 to Tampa Bay last night, a game that went 12 innings. Now six of those 16 runs did get scored in the 12th. Francisco Mejia’s grand slam was the difference maker for the Rays in the top half of the frame and the two runs Toronto scored in the bottom half proved inconsequential. But even before extras, the teams had comfortably gone Over the total (which was only 7.0) last night. We think this one goes Over too as Tampa Bay’s lineup is just on fire right now, a big reason why they’ve won eight in a row. They’ve put up an average of 10.0 runs their last six games, scoring at least seven every time. Today, they go against Robbie Ray. Ray has a 5.03 ERA in his previous three starts. Rookie Shane McClanahan will start for the Rays and he’s off his worst start so far. He was tagged for four runs by the Mets last week. So the Blue Jays should again put some runs on the board, something they’ve had no problem doing in their temporary home of Dunedin where they are averaging 6.2 runs/game. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-22-21 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 220.5 | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 70 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This is a rematch from last year’s first round, a series won by the Clippers in six games. But the Mavs did take this year’s regular season series 2-1. One of the two wins was by 51 points, a game they led 77-27 at halftime. But that was in December. This is May. All three of those regular season meetings did go Under and that’s how we see this one shaking out. Dallas did go Over in its last five regular season games. But most of those were against non-playoff teams. The Clippers, who like the Mavs rested starters late in the year, had gone Under 10 straight times before going Over in their last two games. They are a good defensive team that gives up only 107.8 points/game. But both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven’t played in eight days. Might they be rusty? The Mavs are 20-6 Under their last 26 games as an underdog and 11-1 Under when facing an opponent whose win percentage is .600 or greater. The Clippers have not gone Over in any of their last eight games as a playoff favorite. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-20-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So the Montreal-Toronto series finally gets underway Thursday. It’s the last of the eight first round series to get going. Considering that the Habs’ regular season ended with five consecutive defeats, two of them to Toronto, they probably weren’t in a rush to get things going. However, the Maple Leafs are probably going stir crazy. They haven’t won a postseason series since 2004. They are 0 for 5 since. That drought should end this year. The Leafs won the North Division pretty comfortably and had finished 17 points ahead of Montreal. They went 7-2-1 in the 10 regular season games vs. the Canadiens. We look for Game 1 to be relatively high scoring and go Over the total. Only one of the ten regular season meetings had fewer than five goals scored. That was the third one, back in February. Montreal will be healthier going into Game 1 than they have been in awhile. While that means goalie Carey Price is likely to return, he didn’t have the greatest regular season. However, the returns of Gallagher and Danault absolutely bolster the top line and make the offense more potent. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-19-21 | Jets v. Oilers OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED SELECTION! NO ACTION! |
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05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics OVER 232.5 | Top | 100-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The last three games of the regular season - for both the Wizards and Celtics - all went Under the total. The teams are also 5-0 Under the past five meetings against one another, three of those five taking place this season. It’s a high total for tonight’s play-in game where the winner becomes the 7-seed for the Eastern Conference playoffs. While many signs point to the Under, we think going Over is the right move in this one. Washington games saw an average of 235.1 points in the regular season, the highest mark in the league. They were dead last in points/game allowed. Boston was incredibly inconsistent at the offensive end their last six games, five of which they lost. Three times they didn’t even crack 100. But the other three all saw them score 121 or more. The Wizards like to play fast and this should be a game with lots of possessions and plenty of opportunities to score. Bradley Beal returned to the Washington lineup in the last regular season game. He and Russell Westbrook are the reason this team has won 17 of its last 23 games. Boston is 6-0 Over its last six home games and the last four have seen a MINIMUM of 248 points scored. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-17-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 123 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The NHL Playoffs have not been short on drama thus far with the first five games all being decided by one goal and four of them going into overtime. We had a win on the Under in Game 1 of this Bruins-Capitals series on Saturday, despite OT, as things were tied 2-2 at the end of regulation. Washington got the game winner 4:41 into the extra period and now looks to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. But that may prove difficult with their current goaltending situation. Vitek Vanecek hurt his leg in the first period of Game 1 and had to leave. Ilya Samsonov has been on the COVID-19 list (now off it). and did not dress Saturday. That left 40-year old Craig Anderson between the pipes for the majority of Game 1 and while he stopped 21 of 22 shots, we wouldn’t expect a similar effort if called into duty again. Anderson made just four regular season starts. Boston failed to generate many scoring chances in Game 1, but we think they’ll be more aggressive here in light of the Washington goaltending situation. Six of the eight regular season meetings between the teams went Over. The Over is 7-2-1 the Capitals last 10 games after allowing two goals or less. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 229.5 | Top | 101-113 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER A lot is on the line in this final regular season game between the Grizzlies and Warriors. The winner gets the 8-seed, meaning they’d then have to win just one time in the play-in round to make the 16-team playoff field. The loser is the 9-seed and while that’s home court advantage for the first play-in game, that team would have to win two play-in games to make the field of 16. We like the game to go Over just like the last four Golden State games have. The Warriors are averaging 125.5 points per game themselves in that four-game stretch, which has seen them also come up victorious every time. They’re actually on a five-game win streak overall with a 124.0 points/game average. But Memphis is also on a five-game win streak entering Sunday and they’ve averaged 116.0 points/game during theirs. So there’s plenty of reasons to expect lots of points here. The Over is 13-6 in the Grizzlies previous 19 road games. Steph Curry, the NBA’s leading scorer, is averaging 36.7 points over his last 21 games. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-15-21 | Bruins v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The first playoff series where the puck will drop is Bruins-Capitals. Things get underway Saturday in the Nation’s Capital. These teams just met in the regular season finale as Washington emerged victorious 2-1 on Tuesday. Boston was short-handed for that game, which was 1-1 until the final 1.8 seconds of regulation. The teams split eight regular season meetings and not only did the Capitals win “at the gun” Tuesday, but two of their other wins over the Bruins this year were overtime affairs. Washington finished four points ahead in the standings with 77 to Boston’s 73. But only three teams - Vegas, Colorado and the Islanders - allowed a fewer number of goals in the regular season than the Bruins, who are 12-4-1 their past 17 games. In only one of the eight regular season matchups did the Capitals score more than three goals in regulation. The Caps final three regular season games all stayed Under with them scoring exactly two goals in all three. The Under is 35-15-2 in Boston’s last 52 games when their opponents scored two or fewer goals in their previous game. The Under is also 7-2 the last nine times the Bruins have played with three or more days rest (as they are here). Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-13-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We’ve got an outstanding pitchers duel on tap for the Cardinals-Brewers finale Thursday afternoon. The undefeated Jack Flaherty (6-0, 7-0 TSR) will be opposed by Corbin Burnes, who has a 1.53 ERA and 0.546 WHIP in five starts. So runs should be at a premium in this one. Under certainly seems like the way to go as Flaherty has allowed one or zero runs in four of his previous six starts. Burnes, despite a 2-3 team start record, has been even better than Flaherty this season. Prior to his last start, which was on 4/28, he had given up only one run on eight hits. He’s been out for two weeks due to COVID-19 and perhaps that’s why he struggled against Miami his last time starting. Burnes has a 49-0 strikeout to walk ratio, which is just incredible and should get back to his dominant ways today. When he pitched against St. Louis earlier in the year, he allowed just one hit. In four of Burnes’ five starts, the losing team has been shutout. Flaherty threw seven shutout innings in his last start, giving up three hits. Runs should be very scarce in this one as they’ve been throughout the series. Milwaukee won 4-1 yesterday after losing the opener 6-1. That opener saw St. Louis score five of its six runs in the 11th. They have only nine hits in the series. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-12-21 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Phillies routed the Nationals last night, 6-2, to stay within a game of first place in the NL East. Washington is last in the division with a 13-18 record. The Nats have played fewer games than everyone besides the Mets but a key issue for them has been scoring runs. They are 27th in MLB at 3.6 runs/game and that was actually going into yesterday, so the number is even smaller now. But even though seven of the last eight games have seen them held to three runs or less, the Nats may surprise at the plate tonight as they are set to face Zack Wheeler, whom they’ve had success against in the past. Wheeler is 6-11 all-time vs. Washington with a 4.64 ERA in 20 starts. Wheeler did throw a complete game shutout his last start, but has struggled to find consistency in 2021 as he’s yet to have consecutive quality starts. The Phillies have scored six runs or more in three of the past four games, so we think they can be counted on to score even though they’ve struggled some in the past against Jon Lester. This isn’t the “same old Lester,” however. This will be just his third start of the year after dealing with COVID-19. He’s yet to make it past the fifth. The Over is 4-0 in the Phillies last four games vs. a LH starter and 6-1 the last seven times they’ve been off a win. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-12-21 | Orioles v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Mets drew first blood with the Orioles, winning the series opener 3-2 on Tuesday. All five runs were scored in the final three innings. The Mets are giving up just 2.1 runs per game at home, so Baltimore struggling to score last night should not have been a major surprise. Especially with them playing without the DH. It’s not like they are a great offensive team even with the designated hitter in the lineup. They came into Tuesday averaging just 3.9 runs/game. Look for the Orioles to struggle again this afternoon as they face Taijuan Walker, who has been great so far for the Mets with a 5-1 TSR. The team is 3-0 his last three starts with Walker posting a 1.80 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Walker allowed just one hit in seven innings the last time he started, which was at St. Louis. His last home start saw him toss seven shutout innings of three-hit ball. The Mets’ old teammate Matt Harvey will start for Baltimore today. While we don’t expect he and the Orioles to win today, Harvey may make it tough on the home team. He has a 1.72 ERA his last three starts and Baltimore pitching has kept opposing hitters to a .208 average on the road (entering yesterday). Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-11-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Kansas City comes into this series having dropped eight in a row. Six of the losses have been by at least three runs and they’ve been outscored 58-21 over the course of the losing streak. They’ve gone from leading the AL Central to having the second worst run differential in the American League. But if ever there was a team you’d want to see when staring at the opposite dugout, it’s the Tigers. They have the worst run differential and worst overall record in MLB. They did win their last game (on Sunday), but before that it was 18 losses in 21 games. Both of these teams allow more than 5.0 runs/game, so this total seems low. Detroit has gone Over in five straight and has allowed 10 or more runs in four of the last nine games. The Royals have allowed seven or more runs five times during the currently losing streak, including nine in back to back games. The two starting pitchers, Singer for KC and Boyd for Detroit, are actually both decent. But Boyd has a 5.71 ERA in 23 career starts vs. KC, who is his most common opponent. Singer’s last two starts have both gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-10-21 | Bucks v. Spurs OVER 233.5 | Top | 125-146 | Win | 100 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Currently on a five-game losing streak, the Bucks continue their pursuit of a top two finish in the Eastern Conference when they head to San Antonio on Monday. The Bucks are a half game back of Brooklyn right now for second in the East and 3.5 games behind first place Philadelphia. After they finished first in the East each of the last two seasons, it may seem like a step back this year for Milwaukee. But they actually have a better point differential and net efficiency rating compared to the 76ers and Nets. San Antonio is just trying to get into the playoffs. As of right now, they hold the last spot for the play-in tournament. But New Orleans won Sunday, shrinking the gap between them and the Spurs to 1.5 games. The Spurs haven’t played well down the stretch, losing six of their last seven games. We see tonight’s battle with the Bucks being a high-scoring game. Over its last three games, Milwaukee has scored 124, 135 and 141 points. The Spurs just gave up 124 in a loss to Portland on Saturday. At the same time, they shot just 39.8% in that game. We think they’ll shoot better tonight. It was 120-113 (Milwaukee) when the teams played in late March. Neither shot particularly well from three-point range, but at least one team will tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Phillies and Braves wrap up their three game series Sunday night on ESPN. The Phillies hold the 5-3 head to head edge in season battles, but this series is tied at a game apiece after the Braves rallied for an 8-7 win yesterday. Saturday’s game went 12 innings and it was 3-1 Phillies entering the bottom of the ninth. The comeback was well received on this end as we had Atlanta. If you had the Under, that’s a tough break. But tonight is a good chance to get it back as the pitching matchup of Nola-Ynoa should result in very few runs being scored. Nola already has a complete game under his belt this season and is off another quality where he gave up just one run in six innings. His first start of the year came against Atlanta and he allowed just two runs in 6 ⅔ innings there. Ynoa has started six games in 2021 and if you take away one bad effort at Wrigley, he’s allowed just three earned runs in the other five. In three of the six starts, the opponent has scored one run or less. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-08-21 | Rangers v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We know the four playoff teams in the East Division - Penguins, Capitals, Bruins and Islanders. But the order of finish is far from settled. The Bruins have the most games remaining (3) and trail the Penguins and Capitals by four and two points respectively. The first of the three games is today against the Rangers, who will have the unfortunate distinction of being the best team NOT to make the playoffs. The Rangers are definitely playing like a team that’s been eliminated from contention as they’ve lost five in a row and been shut out three times. The most recent loss came against the Bruins on Thursday and was a 4-0 game. This is the Rangers final game of the year and we don’t expect much of a fight, at least at the offensive end. They managed only seven shots on goal in the first two periods Thursday and just 15 shots total. Lots of injuries on their bench, so there’s missing firepower. Boston has won five of the seven meetings with the Rangers this season and three of the five wins have come in shutout form. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-07-21 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After an incredibly putrid offensive stretch - which at one point saw 12 straight games stay Under the total - the Tigers offense finally woke up from its season-long hibernation against Boston earlier this week. They totaled 22 runs in three games, but of course still found a way to lose twice as this is the worst team in baseball right now. As bad as the offense has been in Detroit, the team has allowed 10 or more runs in four of its last seven games. The Tigers entertain the Twins this weekend and we’ve got two terrible starting pitchers on the mound for Friday’s opening game. Matt Shoemaker has a 7.83 ERA and 1.57 WHIP for Minnesota while Tarik Skubal has a 7.16 ERA and 1.653 WHIP for Detroit. Shoemaker gave up nine runs in his last start. Skubal allowed three home runs in his, lasting only three innings. That was the second time in three starts Skubal allowed three home runs. Those three starts combine for just 11 innings. The Tigers are 4-0 Over in Skubal starts and the Twins are 4-1 Over in Shoemaker starts. This has all the makings of a high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The Braves are looking to complete a three-game sweep this afternoon in the Nation’s Capital. This series is obviously going a lot better than the weekend did vs. Toronto where they lost three times. Unfortunately, it’s tough to be confident in Drew Smyly to get the job done. Smyly, who gets the nod Thursday for Atlanta, has an 0-4 team start record to go along with an 8.05 ERA. A 1.526 WHIP isn’t good either and these numbers are only getting worse with Smyly allowing five or more runs in each of his last three starts. It’s certainly fair to say that the southpaw is a major reason why Atlanta is one of six teams to be allowing at least 5.0 runs/game this year. While Washington hasn’t been putting a ton of runs on the board lately, they are hitting .263 the last seven games. They were 0 for 6 with RISP and left seven men on base yesterday. Jon Lester gets his second start for the Nationals after being a part of the team’s COVID-19 outbreak at the start of the season. He didn’t give up any runs his first time out, but also only had one strikeout in five innings. Look for him to struggle some here. Smyly has allowed eight home runs in the last three starts. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-04-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 239.5 | Top | 118-124 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER A rematch from Sunday takes place tonight on TNT with the Bucks hosting the Nets. Milwaukee won 117-114 on Sunday as Giannis Antetokounmpo (49 points) outdueled Kevin Durant (42). The teams combined to make 32 three-pointers. A high-scoring game from these teams should not be surprising as they are 1st and 2nd in points per game in the league. The Bucks average 119.3 points while the Nets aren’t far behind at 118.7. As high scoring as Sunday was, this rematch should be even higher scoring. When the teams met in January, they combined for 248 points (Brooklyn won 125-123). Durant being back makes the continued absence of James Harden less of a deal for the Nets. The fact their overall field goal percentage from the past two games is hovering just around 42% probably means they’re in store for some sharpshooting tonight. They are shooting closer to 50% for the year. So is Milwaukee. The Over is 14-6 when the Nets are off a loss and 17-8 Over when the Bucks are off a win. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-03-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans OVER 237 | Top | 123-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This is a really big game when it comes to who will get the last few playoff spots in the Western Conference. Golden State is safely in, for now, as they are 9th with a 32-32 SU record. They trail 8th place Memphis by a ½ game and are also ahead of 10th place San Antonio by a ½ game. Most importantly, they are up three games on New Orleans, who would be the odd team out. But the Pelicans have won two in a row and covered the spread in four straight games. Getting the Warriors at home for two games (today and tomorrow) is huge. The total is high for Monday, but we like the game to go Over anyway. The Pelicans are the league’s top Over team (39-24 all games) including 24-10 when favored. Even when the total is 230.0 or higher, the Over is 16-9 in their games. The last game, a win over Minnesota, did go to overtime. But it was tied at 123 at the end of regulation. Golden State only gave up 87 points in its last game, but they were playing Houston, who shot a horrific 9 of 42 from three-point land. The Warriors have scored at least 113 in five of the last six games. The one time they didn’t, they gave up 133. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-02-21 | Suns v. Thunder OVER 222.5 | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oklahoma City suffered the largest home loss in NBA history on Saturday, getting beat 152-97 by Indiana. For a while, it appeared as if the Thunder might suffer the worst ever loss in NBA history as they were down 67 at one point, the largest lead by any team in an NBA game in a quarter century. The biggest win in NBA history took place in 1991 when the Cavs beat the Heat by 68. The Thunder let the Pacers shoot 65.5% overall and 63.6% from three-point range. Domantas Sabonis had a triple double by halftime. So the 45-18 Suns very much have to be “licking their chops” heading into this one. We know Phoenix already averages 114.4 points/game and has gone over that number in three of its last four games. Facing an OKC team that’s lost 19 of 21 and showing no sense of pride, the Suns should be able to name the score tonight. The last time they played the Thunder, they scored 140 and shot 60 percent. They don’t need nearly that many to ensure this one goes Over. But they could come close. Play on PHOENIX AAA |
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05-02-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Mets and Phillies wrap up a three-game series on “Sunday Night Baseball” and we feel there will be no shortage of runs in this rubber match. The first two games weren’t particularly high-scoring as the Phillies won 2-1 Friday and the Mets 5-4 on Saturday. No team has really distinguished itself in the NL East thus far. Everybody is at least a game below .500. Mets lefty David Peterson looks to be a potential liability for his team in this one, based on his first two starts on the road. He allowed six runs in both of them and one took place here in the City of Brotherly Love. After giving up two home runs, Peterson was gone after four innings and the Mets went on to lose 8-2 to the Phillies that day. It was even worse when Peterson started at Wrigley Field as he was gone after 3 ⅓ and the Mets lost that one 16-4. Zach Eflin will go for Philadelphia and his previous starts against the Mets haven’t gone all that well. He has a 5.24 ERA the 11 times he’s faced them. Eflin allowed five runs in his last start. Play on OVER AAA |
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05-02-21 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Three teams stand out in the NHL’s Central Division and Detroit definitely isn’t one of them. The Red Wings have fallen on “hard times” in recent years and 2021 is no exception as they’ve already been eliminated from playoff contention and have just 45 points. The fact they’re not in last place is about the only positive you can say about them right now. Well, that and the fact they just beat the Lightning yesterday 1-0. The game went to a shootout, meaning no goals were scored in regulation or overtime. That was a terrible loss for Tampa Bay, who is among the top three in the Central but still two points back of Florida and four back of Carolina. We’re gonna call for another low scoring affair in the only game on the Sunday NHL docket. Detroit only had 15 shots on goal, including overtime, yesterday. Only five teams have given up less goals than the Lightning have this season. The Red Wings have scored three goals in their last four games. Will Tampa Bay score 4 or even 5 today? We don’t think so based on the way they played yesterday. Clearly, they are more concerned with getting ready (and staying healthy) for the playoffs than winning these last few games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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05-01-21 | Dodgers v. Brewers OVER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The Dodgers and Brewers have two of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Both are among the top five in runs allowed per game. We’ve seen this play out in the first two games of this series with the Brewers winning 2-1 and 3-1. Having lost seven of their last nine, it’s fair to say the Dodgers are in a slump right now. Going back to 2019, 9 of the last 11 meetings between these teams have seen the Under cash. But not tonight, even with two solid starters going. Brandon Woodruff for Milwaukee has made four straight quality starts, but three of them were against the same opponent (Cubs). He has a 9.39 ERA vs. the Dodgers. Dustin May pitched great Sunday night, but the game still went Over because of the bullpen. Neither bullpen has been great so far. Unless both starters completely dominate, we see this one going Over. The Dodgers’ lineup is too talented to continue struggling like this. Milwaukee has homered in four straight games. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rangers OVER 8 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It’s not often that you can sweep a series when scoring only three runs. But that’s what Boston did in two games with the Mets. Now they were not as fortunate when they scored only one run in the series opener vs. Texas. The Rangers were 4-1 winners Friday as Boston’s hitters seem to be mired in a real slump. That’s just four runs in the last three games for them. But they still are averaging 5.1 runs/game when facing right handed starters. They are up against a righty tonight in Kohei Arihara, who just so happens to be off a bad start. The White Sox scored five times off him in just two innings. But Red Sox starter Nathan Eovaldi also allowed five runs in his last start. He’s also given up nine in the last two starts. There have been only two games in the last eight where the Rangers failed to score at least four runs. Neither starter was throwing many strikes in those last starts and Arihara may have been tipping pitches. Over is 4-1 for Texas if they allowed two runs or less last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-29-21 | Red Wings v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Carolina has already clinched a playoff berth and has an almost 90% chance of finishing first in the Central. Those odds do seem high, given that the two Floridian teams chasing them - the Panthers and Lightning - are both within three points of the division lead. But it’s hard not to like the Hurricanes going into the playoffs as they’ve given up the fewest number of goals in the division and fourth fewest in the whole league. But tonight should see the offense get its chance to shine as the ‘Canes face Detroit, a team eliminated from playoff contention. The Red Wings are Central’s lowest scoring club and the league’s second lowest scoring club. So counting on them to score goals here may sound dicey. But they did recently score 7 in a win over Dallas. We will probably only need 1-2 tonight as Carolina comes in averaging 3.8 goals over its last five games. Four of the last six times these teams have played, there have been six or more total goals scored. Detroit was pretty lucky not to give up any goals in regulation in their last game. This is a much tougher opponent than Columbus that they face tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-28-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Minnesota is off to its worst start in years and Cleveland will be looking to sweep them today. But finishing the sweep may prove difficult with Logan Allen pitching. Allen has a 6.91 ERA in four starts with the last two being both brief and ugly. The second inning was something Allen couldn’t escape against either the Yankees or Reds as he’s allowed nine runs total in his last 4 ⅓ innings of work. The good thing for the Indians is they are hitting right now. Particularly Franmil Reyes, who is 12 for 27 on the current homestand. He hit a pair of homers in yesterday’s 7-4 win. Also, Jose Ramirez is 8 for his last 21 and has homered in both games of this series. Losers of 13 of their last 15 games, the Twins turn to J.A. Happ on Wednesday. He carried a no-hitter into the eighth for us in the last start. (Twins were our 10* Interleague Game of the Month that day). But that was also against the Pirates. Expect Happ to struggle a bit today facing a lineup that has produced 12 runs the last two games. Happ had not made it past the fifth inning in any of his previous starts to the last one. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-27-21 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Things have gotten bad in a hurry for the Tigers, who have lost 10 of 11 and five in a row. They went down 3-2 yesterday afternoon at the hands of Kansas City and that marked the ninth time in the past 10 games they were held to two runs or fewer. The job will get no easier Tuesday as the Tigers head to Chicago to face the White Sox. Winners of six of their past seven games, the White Sox are coming off a three-game sweep of Texas and are massive favorites today. While Detroit’s offense has been really bad and a win is highly unlikely, they should be able to break out of their slump a bit as Lucas Giolito hasn’t been very good for Chicago in 2021. Well, he was versus vs. Cleveland on 4/13, but then his last start saw him surrender eight runs in the first inning and it was over from three. We like this game to go Over as well with the White Sox averaging 5.6 runs over the last seven games. They have a .312 team batting average in those seven games as well. Starting for the Tigers will be Jose Urena, who has an 0-4 team start record due in large part to a lack of run support. But his offense HAS to break through sooner or later as they left 23 runners on base Monday vs. Kansas City. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-27-21 | Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 223 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Milwaukee has had its share of problems with Charlotte this season, losing twice to the Hornets. The more recent loss occurred earlier this month at home, but there was no Giannis Antetokounmpo for that game. The teams still found a way to combine for 246 points though (127-119) after combining for 240 in the first matchup (126-114). We look for a far lower scoring affair the third time around as the Hornets are banged up and unlikely to match the kind of shooting display they put forth against Boston on Sunday. In that 125-104 win over the Celtics, four different Charlotte players made at least four three-pointers. They shot 50.5% overall and assisted on 39 of their 47 made field goals. Milwaukee is one of the better defensive teams in this league as they are top 10 in efficiency. Problem is they only could score 104 in a loss to the Hawks on Sunday. Charlotte is giving up only 107.2 points/game at home this year and their last five games overall have averaged just 210.8 points/game. There have been six games this month where the Hornets failed to score 100 points.The Under has hit in four of the Bucks’ past five road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-25-21 | Devils v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Out of playoff contention and losers of nine in a row, New Jersey will head to Philadelphia on Sunday. The Flyers will be desperate for a win here as they are still 11 points off the playoff pace after splitting a pair of games with the Rangers. A -36 goal differential seems to say that Philadelphia is not playoff worth. But they shouldn’t have much difficulty scoring goals tonight as New Jersey has given up a shocking 45 of them during the nine-game skid. Every one of those nine games have seen the Devils give up at least three goals. They’ve allowed at least four in all but one and five in all but three. Their last five games have all seen at least six total goals scored. Opponents are scoring on 18.4% of their shot attempts in those last five contests. The Devils are 7-2 Over on the road when the total is 6.0 or higher this season. The Flyers are 9-3 Over at home when the total is that high. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-22-21 | Marlins v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Marlins won 3-0 yesterday, but six of their last nine games have seen eight or more total runs scored. They average 6.0 runs per game when they take their act out on the road. That’s the highest average for road games among National League teams. The average will be put to the test this evening when they visit San Francisco, who isn’t giving up many runs at home this year. These teams played a three-game series in Miami last weekend where the Giants were held to just one run in two of the games. One was a win (1-0 obviously) and the other a loss (4-1). The middle game, won by the Marlins, ended up being 7-6. We look for something more along the lines of that one tonight. San Francisco has put 15 runs on the board in just the last two games and will get a second crack at Daniel Castano after only managing one run and three hits off him last week. More familiarity with the opposing pitcher should lead to a higher success rate at the plate, plus this game is in their ballpark. Miami will also be seeing Aaron Sanchez for a second time. They scored just one run off him the first time, but that was also the game that ended up 7-6. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-22-21 | Pelicans v. Magic UNDER 222.5 | Top | 135-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We’d like to think the Pelicans will win this game. They desperately need it as they’ve fallen 3.5 games behind the last spot for the play-in round. But we’re not going to lay a near double digit spread on the road with a team that’s lost four in a row and eight games below .500 for the year. Instead, we’ll count on this being a relatively low-scoring affair with the hapless Magic, who know a thing or two about losing themselves. Orlando has lost 9 of their last 10 games and was held to only 96 points in a loss at Atlanta Tuesday night. That was the fourth time this month - and third time in six games - that the Magic were held under 100 points. They are the second lowest scoring team in the league at 104.2 points per game. While the average does go up a bit at home, it’s not by much. So the Pelicans’ often leaky defense should not be an issue tonight. Consider that even with overtime these teams only combined for 225 points when they met in Orlando on April 1st. The total for that game was much lower. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings here in Orlando. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-21-21 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We told you to take the Angels -1.5 yesterday and they came through with a 6-2 victory against the Rangers. Shohei Ohtani threw four shutout innings, while at the plate both Trout and Pujols homered. Texas had just five hits as their offense continues to struggle. They did score six times on Monday, but five of those runs came in one inning, which matched their entire offensive output from the previous 32 innings. So take away that one big inning and this lineup has scored just seven times in 41 innings. But they should break out today facing Jose Quintana, who gave up seven runs in just 1 ⅔ innings against Toronto on April 10th. The result was a 15-1 loss. His first start of 2021, resulted in a 7-6 win for the Angels, but Quintana allowed four runs in 3 ⅓ innings. The Over is obviously 2-0 in Quintana starts. Texas starter Mike Foltynewicz is 3-0 Under, but he’s also 0-3 with a 5.63 ERA. He gave up five runs his last start and has already allowed five home runs. This should be a high-scoring AL West battle. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-20-21 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 226.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After having a seven-game win streak snapped in Philadelphia Friday night, the Clippers came right back and easily defeated Minnesota Sunday, 124-105 as 10 point favorites. They head to Portland for what should be a tougher test on Tuesday, although the Blazers are going to be without Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. With one team minus two key players, it may sound strange to be thinking Over here, but consider that Portland’s defense has been very bad for most of the season. Only Sacramento allows more points per possession. Kawhi Leonard is back for the Clippers, who have beaten the Trail Blazers five straight times. Two of those wins came earlier this season at home and LA scored 128 and 133 points. So this could get ugly for the Blazers. Also key here is the fact the Clippers have gone Under in three straight. So far, they are 3-0 to the Over this season when coming off three straight Unders. Portland is 5-1 Under its last six games, also a rarity. Since they are going to be without two key players, the O/U has come down several points, which feels like bettors overreacting. There’s some real nice value with the Over here as Portland games see an average of 229 points. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-20-21 | Ducks v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The bottom two in the Pacific face off on Tuesday with the Kings hosting the Ducks. Though just three points separate the two teams, it sure feels like the Kings are a lot better as they’ve given up only 13 more goals than they’ve scored while Anaheim is -44 in that department. As much as we’d love to back the Kings at this price, we really can’t as they’ve allowed 25 goals in their last six games, all of which have gone Over the total. Anaheim isn’t exactly known for scoring (at least when they’re not playing San Jose), but they just gave up nine goals in two games to Vegas. So this feels like a game where there will be plenty of goals scored by both teams. The Kings haven’t played in nearly a week as two games vs. Colorado got scratched due to COVID-19. So their skaters should be fresh heading into this one. Keep an eye on the Anaheim power play though as it is MUCH better on the road than at home. When these teams played twice in Anaheim last month, the Kings scored five goals in each game, both times leading to an Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets OVER 227 | Top | 137-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Both the Grizzlies and Nuggets are dealing with injury concerns entering Monday’s clash. This will be Memphis’ third straight game on the road and they’ve got four more tough ones upcoming. The trip has started out well with them winning at Milwaukee and Chicago. But several players are listed as questionable for tonight, which is why the line has risen. However, lay the points with caution in this one as Denver is still getting over the loss of Jamal Murray, whose season is done. The Nuggets have scored 123 and 128 in their last two games, both wins and both Overs (they beat Miami and Houston). The Grizzlies have scored a few more in their last two games with 126 against the Bulls and 128 against the Bucks. Those two games also went Over. Our bet is that this one will go Over as well. Even with the injuries, both teams have proven they can still score. The Over is 6-0 the last six times Memphis has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-19-21 | White Sox v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 3 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox and Red Sox finish up a four-game series early Monday, in the traditional early start time to help celebrate Patriots’ Day. (Normally, the Boston Marathon would be run today, but that’s been pushed back to October due to the pandemic). The teams played two on Sunday with the White Sox winning 3-2 and 5-1. Both of those were seven-inning affairs with MLB’s new rules in place for doubleheaders. Going back to Saturday, the Red Sox won the opener 7-4. We’re back to nine innings today and we like the Over. Lucas Giolito starts for Chicago. He’s been quite effective so far, including seven shutout innings (in a losing effort) his last trip to the mound. But Boston came into yesterday averaging nearly 6.0 runs/game and 6.7 against right-handed starters. Giolito has given up seven runs in 17 previous innings vs. the Red Sox. The starter for the home team will be Nathan Eovaldi, who is similarly off to a great start to 2021. But he has a 5.59 ERA vs. the White Sox, who were averaging 5.7 runs/game on the road going into Sunday. Watch the line as Boston is 6-1 Over its last seven as home underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -114 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER We had Vegas -1.5 when they beat Anaheim 4-0 on Friday. There was a pretty strong case that the Golden Knight would roll in that spot and sure enough they did with a monumental 51-16 edge in shots on goal. Vegas is averaging 4.4 goals during a five game win streak, but they’ve also posted two shutouts and have given up just eight goals the last four games. Anaheim is 5-0 Under its last five games and while they two four-goal wins against San Jose, they haven’t beaten anyone besides the Sharks in April! In the last six games not against the Sharks, the Ducks have failed to score more than two goals. They have just one in the last three. Vegas is so good at limiting shots and we don’t think they’re going to go for four (or more) goals again. Four of the last five meetings have gone Under and this one has the potential to be lower scoring than Friday was. The Under is 15-7-1 their past 23 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-18-21 | Blue Jays v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Blue Jays and Royals played a doubleheader on Saturday. Both teams got a win and both games stayed Under. Toronto won the first, 5-1, before KC came back with a 3-2 win of their own. Keep in mind those were only seven inning games per MLB’s “new” rules. We’re set to play a full nine today and look for more runs to be scored as a result. The Jays got a really strong start from Steven Matz in Game 1 yesterday. But their starter for Sunday, Robbie Ray, figures to be less impressive. Ray and Royals starter Brad Singer were both supposed to go Friday before the rain interfered. Singer has had a poor start to the year with a 6.48 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The second game yesterday is the only time in the last five games that Toronto didn’t score five or more runs. Kansas City averages 5.7 runs per game at home, but also gives up 5.1. Don’t forget that Thursday’s game was a 7-5 final (KC won). We expect something along those lines here. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-18-21 | Pelicans v. Knicks OVER 218.5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Pelicans, who are desperate for a win, have lost two in a row. They went off as the betting favorite in both defeats. One of them was to the Knicks, who are on an eight-game ATS win streak. The teams now meet for the second time in five days Sunday afternoon, but this time at Madison Square Garden. After beating the Pelicans 116-106 on Wednesday, the Knicks then defeated Dallas 117-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. They’ve gone off as the dog in five of these eight straight ATS wins. Two of those games they lost, but they are now on a five-game SU win streak as they are now sixth in the Eastern Conference. New Orleans badly needs this game as they are 11th in the Western Conference and 2.5 games back of 10th. They lost 117-115 in overtime at Washington on Friday night, a terrible result given their current circumstance and that they held the Wizards to 4 of 27 from three-point range. The Knicks’ Julius Randle is as hot as anyone right now with 76 points in the last two games. The Pelicans give up the third most points per possession in the league. Wednesday’s game went Over the total and so should this one as the Knicks are 3-0 Over their last three games, averaging almost 115 points/game. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-17-21 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 214 | Top | 96-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Bulls are in a terrible way right now. Five consecutive losses and they are without top scorer, Zach LaVine (quarantine). It was a 126-115 home loss last night to Memphis as Chicago gave up 69 points in a disastrous second half. They haven’t covered the spread in any of the five losses either as only one of the games was decided by fewer than nine points. The Bulls get to stay at home tonight as they face Cleveland. While this looks like a favorable matchup for the hosts, we think it’s more conducive to an Under. Cleveland is the lowest scoring team in the league at 103.9 points/game and they drop below 100 points/game (99.8) on the road. Chicago isn’t doing much better of late, averaging only 104.9 points/game during the five-game skid. Without LaVine, the Bulls aren’t getting much offense besides the recently acquired Nikola Vucevic and Coby White, who went for 27 points Friday. The other three starters combined for just 18 points! These teams were in action against one another last month. The final score was 103-94 (Cleveland!) and that was the fourth time in the last five meetings here in Chicago that the Under cashed. Make it five of six. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-16-21 | Pacers v. Jazz OVER 233.5 | Top | 111-119 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Jazz had only seven players score on Tuesday, but six of them finished in double figures as they defeated the Thunder 106-96. It was not a good shooting night overall for the Western Conference leaders as they finished the game with a 41.8 field goal percentage. But after falling behind by 17 early, they were able to hold Oklahoma City to a 38.7 FG%. We expect to see more scoring in today’s game vs. Indiana, who has scored at least 132 four times in their last seven games. The Pacers shot very well against Houston (53.2%) two nights ago. But an issue to keep an eye on is that they’ve also allowed 124 or more points in five of their last seven games. Utah puts up 118.6 points/game at home, so we are anticipating they’ll score a lot today, even if some of the injured players that sat out Tuesday do not return here. The Over is 6-1 in Indiana’s past seven games as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-16-21 | Braves v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Cubs hitting, or should we say “lack thereof,” has been dreadful so far. As a team, they are batting .163. No other team in the National League strikes out at a higher rate and no team in all of MLB scores fewer runs per game. They are averaging fewer than five hits per game and off a shutout loss (7-0) at the hands of Milwaukee. At home things are even more dire as they have hit just .124 in six games! But a visit from the Braves and the afternoon Wrigley wind should lead to a change in things on Friday. Atlanta’s last seven games have averaged just over 12 runs with them scoring and allowing 6.0 per. Six of those seven games went Over the total including each of the last three. Braves starter Drew Smyly has struggled with the home run ball thus far, allowing three in his two starts and if the wind is blowing out today that should continue to be a problem. The only other time Smyly faced the Cubs, he allowed a pair of home runs. Cubs starter Davies has allowed just one HR so far, but he gave up seven runs while getting only five outs in his last start. We don’t like his chances against Ronald Acuna Jr, who leads MLB with seven home runs. This one goes Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-15-21 | Celtics v. Lakers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 121-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER While tonight’s Celtics-Lakers matchup certainly lacks the prestige of past editions, it does offer up an excellent opportunity to bet the Under. The Lakers are still without both of their superstars, LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Relative to expectations, they’ve actually done okay without them by winning six of the last 10 games. They are off a 101-93 win against Charlotte, which snapped a four-game Over run. But there has been only one time in the previous six games that the Lakers have scored more than 110 points. The last two games have seen them score a total of 197 points. Boston, save for an overtime win against Minnesota last week, has done a good job at the defensive end lately. A four-game win streak has them up to fifth in the Eastern Conference. The Lakers are fifth in the Western Conference. The Under is 8-2 in Boston’s last 10 games and the Lakers are tops in the West with a PPG against average of 105.6. The Under is 18-4 this season when the Lakers play a team with a winning record. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-15-21 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Indians weren’t just beaten 8-0 last night by the White Sox. They were no-hit by Carlos Rondon, the second no-no we’ve seen so far this season. The only runner Cleveland got on base was Roberto Perez in the ninth and that was after he was hit by an 0-2 slider. It was the second straight shutout in the series as the Indians won 2-0 on Tuesday. Chicago won the opener 4-3. Look for today’s finale to be the highest scoring game of the series. That may seem like an odd prediction based on how both of Thursday’s starters have performed so far in 2021. But Indians starter Civale has only had to face the Tigers - twice. After a six-run first inning last night, it seems like the White Sox should have finished with more runs. Of course, they didn’t need any. Tim Anderson, who has finished top two in batting average each of the last two seasons, will be back in the Sox lineup Thursday. We also think Cleveland can score at least four runs today. That’s how many they scored after the only other game where they were shutout this season. They are also 5-0 Over after allowing five or more runs in their last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 8 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Braves have dropped both games to the Marlins so far. The first was one they let get away. They led 3-1 going into the eighth, but then let Miami tie the game up and lost in extras, 5-3. We were happy about that result as we had the Marlins +1.5 after calling it a “tough spot” for Atlanta coming off the controversial loss Sunday night. Last night saw things get really one sided as the Marlins won 14-8. Given the odds for tonight, you’ve gotta think Atlanta is going to break through. We’ll take the Under with Charlie Morton starting as he’s allowed only four runs in 11 innings so far this season. Last night was not only Miami’s season high in both runs and hits, but they also exceeded their total number of runs scored from the previous six games combined. So look for a quiet night at the plate from them. Marlins starter Nick Neidert will have to reduce the number of walks (5) from his first start, but we like the fact he still allowed just one run. This game should resemble Monday not Tuesday and presuming Atlanta is up, they won’t have to bat in the ninth inning. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-12-21 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 234.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER New Orleans got the win it needed last night as they rallied to defeat Cleveland 116-109. We laid the points with the Pelicans, so we ended up happy. Now they head back home to face slumping Sacramento. The Kings have lost six straight games and have ended up with 106 points or less in four of the losses. The last two games have seen the Pelicans play some defense as they held Philadelphia to 94 before holding Cleveland to 109 last night. The Under is 12-5 in the Kings last 17 games and 7-3 L10 road games. They are 7-2 Under off an ATS loss. New Orleans does have the most Overs in the league, which is why the total is so high, but even they are 3-1 Under last four. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-10-21 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Since being swept by Baltimore to open the season, the Red Sox have won four straight. Following an off-day, they look to make it two straight over the Orioles here at Camden Yards. Obviously, Thursday’s series opener went much differently than the series at Fenway last week. Boston won 7-3 and has now scored at least six runs in each of its four wins. But Saturday starter Garrett Richards had a terrible first outing vs. the O’s, lasting just two innings while giving up six runs. Baltimore pitching has given up exactly seven runs in three of the last four games. Saturday starter Zimmerman was on the winning end of Richards’ first start, but isn’t likely to pitch as well the second time around. Boston’s last five games have all gone Over the total. They are on an 8-0 Over run after scoring five or more runs the previous game, going back to 2020. The Orioles are 7-3 Over in the second game of a series. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-09-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It seems as if the National League East is the consensus choice as the “toughest division in baseball” this season. We don’t expect many runs to be scored in this Phillies-Braves series opener on Friday. Both teams were off Thursday. Philadelphia has opened 4-1 and swept Atlanta at home to start the 2021 season. But the Braves, despite being 2-4, have to like their chances at revenge because they are 42-18 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 the past two seasons. All three games in the series at Citizens Bank Park last week stayed Under. The most total runs scored in any of the three was five! Philly’s recently completed series with the Mets went much differently as all three games went Over. Tonight’s game features a starting pitching rematch from 4/3 as Zack Wheeler opposes Charlie Morton. Wheeler was masterful in the game last Saturday as he went seven innings and allowed only one hit. He had 10 strikeouts and no walks. Morton wasn’t bad either; he gave up three runs over five innings. But it didn’t matter considering how good Wheeler was and the Phillies won the game 4-0. Look for another low-scoring affair tonight as the Braves are batting just .170 in the early going. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-09-21 | Capitals v. Sabres UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER If you follow the NHL, you’re well aware that Buffalo has become quite the embarrassment. They were beaten again last night, 6-3 at home by New Jersey, and have now dropped 20 of their last 23 games. That includes a record-setting (for the shootout era) 18-game losing streak from February 25th through March 29th. There was a 3-0-2 run going into last night, but the Sabres allowing the Devils to score six times was a painful reminder why this is the worst team in the league. They are 1-16-1 this season against the top four teams in the division. They play one of those four tonight. Washington has lost three of five, but was 17-3-1 in the 21 games before that. They are 5-0-1 vs. the Sabres in 2021 with a 14-5 goal advantage in the three games here in Buffalo. We look for tonight’s game to stay Under the total. The Capitals are coming off a 4-2 loss last night in Boston, their fourth loss in six games. They didn’t score the game before that, but have also held two of the last four opponents to just one goal. The Caps are 5-0 Under L5 games without rest. The Sabres are 18-6 L24. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-08-21 | Cavs v. Thunder OVER 213 | Top | 129-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER You’ve got two bad teams ready to square off Thursday. The fact Oklahoma City is getting points at home from Cleveland should tell you they are in a really sorry state right now. Last night saw them go down for a fourth straight time, 113-102 here at home against Charlotte. On the bright side, the Thunder did not give up more than 130 points, which is something they’d done each of the three previous games. If you wanted to say these are the two worst teams in the league right now, we will not disagree. But we did tell you to take Cleveland in their last games and they did win 125-101 as nine-point underdogs in San Antonio on Sunday. The Cavaliers had lost their previous five games while never scoring more than 101. Given OKC’s recent defensive issues, we project the Cavs to have another high scoring effort tonight. But we also worry about their defense. They let Oklahoma City shoot 54% last month in a 117-101 loss. This is a low total and in the Thunder’s previous 11 games without rest, the average number of total points per game scored is 226.2. The Over has hit in 9 of the last 11 Thunder home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-08-21 | Penguins v. Rangers OVER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The East is probably the NHL’s deepest division as it has five good teams. As it presently stands, the Rangers would be the odd team out come playoff time. They are five points back of the fourth place Bruins. So tonight is a big game as they face third place Pittsburgh, who is nine points above the Blueshirts, but has roughly the same goal differential. The Rangers certainly are hoping for a repeat of Monday when they beat the Penguins 8-4 here at Madison Square Garden. The Penguins, if you can believe it, have allowed 15 goals the last two games. But they’ve also scored a total of 13 in the last three, never scoring fewer than four in any game. In only one of the previous seven games have the Pens failed to score four or more goals. So it’s very reasonable to expect another high scoring game tonight. Plus, over the L11 games, the Rangers are 8-3-2 and have THREE games with EIGHT or more goals! (This isn’t your father’s NHL, we guess). The Over is 5-0 in the Rangers last five home games. Pittsburgh is 14-3 Over when they allowed five or more goals their last game. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Adding a designated hitter to the Dodgers’ already potent lineup just seems cruel, especially if you’re the 0-5 A’s, who have given up eight or more runs in every game. They gave up a season-high 10 to the Dodgers in last night’s series opener. That was the second time in the last four games LA scored 10 or more runs. They had seven runs on the board through three innings last night. Chris Bassitt has the unenviable task of starting against the Dodgers tonight. While he pitched well in the Spring and on Opening Day, he never faced a lineup quite like this one. Clayton Kershaw goes for the Dodgers and while you may think that means a long day for the Oakland hitters, guess again as they got him for nine runs in a Spring Training game. Kershaw also allowed six runs and 10 hits in his first start of 2021 and that was without giving up a home run. Look for the bevy of runs scored in A’s games to continue on Tuesday. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-06-21 | Cardinals v. Marlins UNDER 8 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER St. Louis was 4-1 winner in Monday’s series opener. That victory squared their season record away at 2-2. Miami is 1-3 and save for a 12-run effort on Sunday, they haven’t done a whole lot of scoring. The other three games have seen them score a total of five runs and four of those were in one game. Let’s not forget that last year’s playoff run ended with back to back shutout losses. So we’ve got little confidence in the Marlins lineup heading into Tuesday and really the same is true for the Cardinals. While the Redbirds’ first three games all went Over, they didn’t have a ton of hits. They’ve scored 22 runs in four games, but the fact they have only 27 hits (7 or fewer each of the L3 games) makes that seem a bit fortuitous. Sandy Alcantara will be the starter for Miami on Tuesday. He threw six shutout innings on Opening Day and allowed only two hits. The Marlins lost that game 1-0. St. Louis will send John Gant to the bump. Since he’s been used as a reliever the past two seasons, Gant won’t be in there for too long. But regardless, Miami hasn’t shown they are any real threat at the plate. The Under is 14-3 in the Marlins’ last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter. They’ve scored a total of one run in the two games this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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04-05-21 | Avalanche v. Wild OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER With a four-game win streak, Colorado has overtaken Vegas for first place in the West Division. Sitting in third, six points back of the Avalanche, is Minnesota. The Wild just helped out the Avs (and themselves) by winning in Vegas two straight times. They certainly hope “what happens in Vegas” doesn’t stay there as this is a golden opportunity for them to catch up to the Avs. But it will not be easy keeping the Avs in check. Colorado has scored a total of 19 goals during its win streak, an average of nearly 5.0 per game. They are 12-0-2 in their last 14 games and have scored 62 times in that stretch, an average of basically 4.5 goals per game. It was 6-0 (Avs) the last time these teams played and 5-1 (Avs) the time before that. The Avs had 85 shots on goal in those two games. This will be the seventh meeting of the year and the Over is 5-1 in the first six with all but the one Under seeing six or more total goals scored. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga OVER 145.5 | Top | 90-93 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Gonzaga looks unstoppable as they go for the 1st National Championship in program history. They are massive favorites against UCLA Saturday as you just don’t see a double digit spread in the Final Four very often. But it’s the total that has our attention in this National Semifinal. While both teams are 3-1 Under their last four games, this has the potential to be a pretty high-scoring affair. We need not remind you that Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 91.6 points/game. They have scored at least 83 in all four Tournament games. This number will likely end up closing as the third lowest total for any Gonzaga game this season. UCLA being off such a low-scoring game (they beat Michigan 51-49 in the Elite Eight) is a big reason for that. But the Bruins scored plenty in the first four Tourney games (remember they were in the First Four). Yes, two of those games went to OT. But they still hit 65 in regulation in all of them and twice hit 73. Those kinds of numbers are reasonable for tonight and should they get there, this game will easily go Over. Gonzaga likes to play fast and UCLA is 5-1 Over this season when the total is 140 to 149.5. Gonzaga is shooting almost 55% from the field and only one of their last 11 games saw a fewer number of total points than this total. Their games average 160.1 total points. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-02-21 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 219 | Top | 103-140 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Phoenix just keeps on winning. They’ve won four in a row and six of the last seven games. Their last game was a 121-116 win against Chicago, which easily went Over the total. Now they are set to face Oklahoma City, which should be an easy win. The Thunder also won their last game, but other than Houston, Minnesota and Toronto - all of whom are terrible - they haven’t beaten anybody in the last two weeks. Expect the Suns to score a lot tonight as they are 10-3 Over when off three or more consecutive wins. A big key here is Devin Booker. Since returning to the lineup, the Suns are 25-6. Without Booker, they lost to the Thunder 102-97 in late January. Booker has averaged 26.8 points on better than 50% shooting since returning and just went for 45 against the Bulls on Wednesday. The Thunder will need to score some here as well and with the Suns allowing 110 or more in three of the last five games, they should. The Over is 5-2 the last seven times Oklahoma City has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-02-21 | Coyotes v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 118 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Alphabetically, these are the first two on the list of NHL teams. But that’s about all Anaheim is first in. The Ducks sit last in the West Division with 28 points and they have a -40 goal differential. To put that GD in some perspective, a Buffalo team that is considered the embarrassment of the sport has a -47 GD. Arizona is just hoping to get that fourth playoff spot the division has to offer. They are one point behind St. Louis in the race for it. Certainly hurting their chances was their most recent effort where they allowed NINE goals in a humiliating loss to Colorado. Over the Coyotes last six games, the Over has cashed five times. The good news, from their perspective, is they’ve scored at least three goals in five of those games. Three times they’ve scored five goals. Anaheim just gave up five goals in its last game, also against Colorado, and was one of the teams to recently give up five to Arizona. Playing each other instead of the Avalanche gives the teams a better shot at winning. No matter who comes out on top, we anticipate a high-scoring affair. The Over is 9-4 for the ‘Yotes if they allowed four or more goals last time out. Play on OVER AAA |
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04-01-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER These were the two playoff teams from the American League West a season ago. Oakland took home the pennant with a 36-24 WL record. But Houston was the one who made it to the ALCS, even though they had a sub-.500 regular season record. That postseason run included a 3-1 series win over the A’s in the LDS. That was strange as Oakland really dominated the regular season series, winning 7 of 10 with all three losses coming in seven inning games. We look for Opening Day to be a relatively high-scoring affair. Three of those four playoff games saw 15 or more total runs scored. Houston is going to have a bounce back year at the plate. Two years ago, they were tops in MLB in batting average, slugging and OPS. Zack Greinke faced Oakland three three times last year. He allowed four runs in two of those starts. The A’s will counter with Bassitt, who allowed two home runs in last year’s LDS, same as Greinke did in his start that series. Play on OVER AAA |
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03-31-21 | Knicks v. Wolves OVER 218 | Top | 101-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Defense hasn’t been an issue for the Knicks this season as they allow the fewest number of points per game in the league. But offense was a problem on Monday as they managed only 88 points in a home loss to the Heat. While it would be easy to point the finger at the Mitchell Robinson injury, he only averages 8.3 points. The team needs to start shooting the basketball better as they’ve finished with a 43.2 FG% or worse in five of their last six games. Fortunately for them, they are in Minnesota tonight where they’ll find one of the league’s worst defensive teams. The Timberwolves allow 117.1 points/game and there has been only one time in the L10 games where they didn’t allow at least 112. That one time was against Houston, who can’t hit water from a boat right now. Minnesota has scored exactly 107 points in three straight games, which isn’t a lot, but they did make 14 threes against Brooklyn Monday night. Though that game did stay Under, the Over is 9-4 the past 13 times the T’wolves have been underdogs. The Knicks did give up a 39-point quarter to the Heat. We think both of these teams are due for a big night offensively. Play on OVER AAA |
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03-30-21 | Stars v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Nashville is surging right now as they’ve won five straight and seven of their last eight. The one loss was 2-0 at Florida on March 20th. In six of the seven victories, they’ve allowed two goals or fewer. It shouldn’t be shocking then to find out the Under is on a 6-2 run in Predators games. One of those two Overs was against the Stars, a 4-3 victory, but that was in Dallas. The Under is 6-1 the last seven times the Stars have had to play here in Music City. All four head to head meetings between these teams this season took place in “Big D.” The Stars are not playing particularly well of late, having dropped 8 of their last 11. But if a certain pattern holds, they are in for a win tonight. The last three times they have been off two straight losses, they’ve won the next game. They have lost their last two games coming into Tuesday. They lost 4-1 and 4-3 at home to Florida, but we believe they’ll shore things up defensively in this game. Nashville has been playing without Filip Forsberg, who leads the team in both goals and points. The Under is 6-1-1 in the Stars previous eight road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga OVER 153 | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Much has been made of USC’s defense in this Tournament. The Trojans have allowed 58.3 points per game and none of the three teams they’ve faced have been able to shoot better than 37.7 percent. But none of those teams were Gonzaga. The Bulldogs lead the country in scoring at 91.8 points per game and have scored 98, 87 and 83 in their three Tournament games. They shot almost 60 percent from the field against Creighton in the Sweet 16 win. The only concern here for Gonzaga is that they better shoot well again because USC has also been scoring at a high rate. The last two games have seen the Trojans make 57% of their shots and that includes 21 of 35 on three-pointers! So this should be quite the high scoring game in the Elite 8 as both teams should score at least 80. The Over is 39-17 in Gonzaga’s last 56 games and they are an astronomical 55% overall this year! USC is 6-3 Over after a game where they scored 80 or more points. Gonzaga likes to play fast and as a result, this one goes Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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03-29-21 | Pelicans v. Celtics OVER 230 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 78 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oregon has gone Over in eight straight games. We like them to make it 10 against USC in the Sweet 16. Now the last time a Ducks’ game stayed Under, it was against USC. That regular season matchup saw them lose 72-58 in LA. Though they made 7 of 17 three-point attempts, the Ducks were an unsightly 16 of 40 on two-point attempts. That percentage will certainly improve in Sunday’s rematch, even though USC has done an excellent job on defense so far in the Tournament and really all season. With the teams combining for 130 in the first meeting, we only a handful more to send this one Over. Considering they combined to go just 13 of 22 from the charity stripe last month, we should get some more points there in this one. You also can’t forget that Oregon just dropped 95 points on Iowa in their last game. USC has scored 72 and 85 in their two games and shot 57.1% against Kansas. Oregon shot 55% vs. Iowa. Both USC opponents have shot worse than 30%. That can’t continue. The Over is 6-1-1 for USC following a SU win. Play on OVER AAA |
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03-28-21 | UCLA v. Alabama OVER 145.5 | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 75 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER UCLA had to win three times last weekend. This first one wasn’t easy as they needed overtime to get by Michigan State in the “First Four.” But the Bruins then looked dominant against 6-seed BYU and 14-seed Abilene Christian. Defense was the key against Abilene Christian as only 44 points were allowed. But that was a 14-seed. Now UCLA faces Alabama, who just hung 96 points on Maryland in its Round of 32 game. The Crimson Tide are going for just the second Elite Eight appearance in program history. Nate Oats won’t ever be confused for Nick Saban but the Tide’s second year coach has done a great job at Tuscaloosa. Bama basically averages 80 points per game, a number they have matched or exceeded in four of their last six games. They like to play fast. UCLA does not, but it remains to be seen if they can control the tempo. UCLA does shoot the three well (37%) and Bama allowed Maryland to shoot 53% overall (37% from three). The Terps got to 77 points even though they attempted only seven free throws and made just three. The Over is 8-1 for Alabama following a game where they scored 90 or more points. Play on OVER AAA |
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03-28-21 | Devils v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER New Jersey was blanked (4-0) in Washington Friday night. Seven of their last nine games have seen five or less total goals scored. The exceptions were the two games before the shutout loss on Friday. Now the Devils head to Boston to face a Bruins team that’s coming off a 3-2 win over Buffalo last night. It wasn’t easy for the B’s on Saturday, even though the Sabres are on the longest losing streak of the shootout era. Boston needed two goals in the third period to pull out the “W” and we don’t see an abundance of goals coming from their end tonight either. The Under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Not to be outdone, the Under is 7-2 in the Devils’ last nine games. All signs point to another Under here as that particular wager has gone 14-4-3 the L21 meetings and 4-0 the last four here in Beantown. Play on UNDER AAA |
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03-27-21 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 223 | Top | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Chicago is 7-1 Under in its last eight games and in five of those they failed to score more than 100 points. But they were active at the trade deadline, making several moves, the most notable of which brought Nikola Vucevic over from Orlando. Paired with Zach LaVine, who is already averaging 28.2 points/game, the Bulls should now be a lot more dynamic offensively. Honestly, it’s not that they are bad at that end of the floor. For the season, they are averaging 113.0 points/game. They average more on the road (117.9) and overall Bulls’ road games average 232.6 points/game. It should be noted all four sub-100 point performances over the L8 games occurred at home. San Antonio is coming off an awful shooting game where they made just 40.2 percent of their field goals. They held the Clippers to 38.2%, but it wasn’t enough as they went down for a fourth straight time, 98-85. We get the sense that both teams are ready to break out of their “mini offensive slumps.” Over the last three seasons, the Spurs are 12-4 Over when they are on a losing streak of three or more games. Thursday was a season-low in points for them. Play on OVER AAA |
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03-26-21 | Hawks v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 124-108 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Without Steph Curry, the Warriors look to be in major trouble. While they didn’t have much difficulty scoring last night, they were blown out 141-119 by the Kings. It was Golden State’s third straight loss. All three losses have come with Curry out of the lineup. Draymond Green, reportedly feeling the effects of a COVID-19 shot, sat yesterday as well. The self-professed “greatest defender of all time” partly explains the Warriors giving up 141 last night. The team is hopeful that Green will play tonight as they host Atlanta, who has never played in this building since it opened for the start of last season. The Hawks are in the middle of an eight-game road trip that has gone a bit sideways. After they blew all of a 22-point lead against the Clippers on Monday and lost 119-110, they then lost 110-108 to Sacramento. Before those losses, they’d won the first eight games for interim coach Nate McMillan. Before giving up 141 last night, Golden State was on a 4-0 Under run. We think they’ll struggle to score tonight without Curry, but the defense should improve. Atlanta hasn’t topped 110 in any of its last three games and is 4-0 Under off its last four ATS losses. Golden State is 7-0 Under in the second game of a back to back. Play on UNDER AAA |
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03-23-21 | Lakers v. Pelicans OVER 222 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers have vowed to completely overhaul their approach to the game. Dennis Schroeder noted “it’s totally opposite now” and that may be the understatement of the year. Things did not go real well for the Lakers in their first game since James sprained his ankle. They got blown out in Phoenix and scored just 94 points. In six quarters without LeBron, the team has totaled only 141 points and three of those quarters saw them score 18 points or less. But tonight should see more scoring as they face a New Orleans team that doesn’t play much defense. The Pelicans are giving up 114.7 points/game and only two teams (Sacramento, Portland) allow more points per possession. So if Los Angeles can play fast tonight, they’ll score a decent number. New Orleans averages 117.7 points/game at home, a big reason why the Over is 17-4 here. This total should be higher. Play on OVER AAA |
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03-22-21 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 224 | Top | 119-105 | Push | 0 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A couple of bad teams here. Cleveland is actually off a win though. They beat short-handed Toronto yesterday by a score of 116-105. They had a big lead early and held on for the ‘W.” Tonight they’ll host Sacramento, a team that saw a two-game win streak end with a 24-point loss in Philadelphia the other night. The Kings have only five wins in the last 18 games, but are still favored here, which should tell you what the oddsmakers think of the Cavs. We know Sacramento doesn’t play much defense, but Cleveland is near the bottom of the league in points per game (104.0). The Cavs have scored at least 110 for three consecutive games now, but that’s atypical of them. The three games prior (to those three), they didn’t score 100 even once. So they should experience a downturn offensively tonight. The Kings have failed to top 107 in three of their last five contests. They are 5-0 Under after allowing 100+ their last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois OVER 133 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
THis is an 8* on OVER Emotions should be high for this in-state battle of Top 25 teams. Loyola Chicago probably should have been seeded higher, though they did have trouble ousting undermanned Georgia Tech in the first round. The Ramblers won that game 71-60 (they pulled away late) despite allowing the Yellow Jackets to shoot 57.4%. Now they face top seeded Illinois, who shot 57.1% in its 78-49 dismantling of Drexel on Friday. We know Loyola usually plays great defense, but there’s a big difference between the Missouri Valley and one of the best teams in College Basketball. The Fighting Illini average 81.3 points/game and while this is a high O/U for a Loyola game, it’s relatively low for what they’re used to seeing in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini have had only two games this season close with totals in the 130’s. Both were vs. Wisconsin and both went Over. The Over is 6-0 for Loyola this season following a non-conference game and the only previou two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21, the game also went Over. Both teams shoot better than 50% overall from the field. Play on OVER AAA |