Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-17-22 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State OVER 130.5 | Top | 63-79 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
10* OVER (SUN BELT TOM) When I bet on "overs," I like betting on motivated teams. The Georgia Southern Eagles fall under that category, as they're now just 11-12 this season, including 4-8 in league play after 3 straight losses. Georgia Southern will host this exact game on Saturday. Georgia State enters on the other end of the spectrum, as it's won 3 in a row. The Eagles are out to snap their slide, and the Panthers will aim to kick their opponent while its down. Why is this total SO incredibly low? Because both teams struggle offensively. Georgia Southern though has seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 after 3 or more SU losses in a row. I say Georgia State keeps the pressure on from start to finish, forcing the visitors to match pace; in what I expect to be a faster-paced game, look for this one to fly well over the number before the final horn sounds! AAA Sports |
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02-16-22 | Panthers v. Hurricanes UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EXPRESS) Two of the best in the league go H2H here. Florida averages 4.09 GPG (1st), while allowing 2.89 (18th), while Carolina averages 3.48 GPG (6th), while conceding 2.37 (1st.) Both teams come in off losses. Carolina fell 3-2 to Minnesota, while Florida lost 5-2 to the Rangers. Florida managed a 4-3 win over Carolina on January 8th, but all signs point to a much more defensive affair in the rematch. I expect these league-leading defensive units to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summariers; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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02-15-22 | Capitals v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH) Washington averags 3.20 GPG, while allowing 2.78. It's off a 4-1 loss to Ottawa (that's important to note here as the Capitals have seen the total go "under" in 8 of their last 11 off a home loss in which they were held to 1 or less goals in.) Nashville averages 3.08 GPG, while allowing 2.75. It's off a 5-2 home loss to the Jets (note though that the Preds have seen the total go "under" the number in 9 of their last 12 off three goals or greater home loss in their last outing.) Both teams are off terrible efforts in their previous outings and I expect that to lead to a much more concerted effort on the defensive end in this one; the offical call is on the under! AAA Sports |
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02-15-22 | South Carolina v. Ole Miss UNDER 135 | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
10* UNDER (SEC TOM) Two teams in need of a victory collide in this one, and I'm expecting a very defensive battle. South Carolina is 14-10 this season (3-5 on the road), while Ole Miss is 12-13 (10-5 at home.) The Gamecocks though average only 71.4 PPG. Ole Miss averages even less at 67.9. These teams pride themselves on their aggressive defensive play. This is the only matchup of the year between the schools. In their last matchup on March 11th, Ole Miss won 76-59 as a 7-point fav. That total stayed under the posted number of 140.5. I expect an even tigther, and ultimately lower-scoring game this time though; the official call is on the under! AAA Sports |
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02-14-22 | Blackhawks v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* OVER Chicago has coe out of the break with one win and one loss. It won 4-1 at Edmonton, before then losing 5-1 at St. Louis on Saturday. The Blackhawks only average 2.38 GPG, while unforunately allowing 3.35. Winnipeg averages 2.87, while conceding 2.89. The Jets have 2 victories and a loss since returning to action, most recently an impressive 5-2 win at Nashville as a +170 underdog. The Jets will look to keep that momentum rolling here. The Hawks play with revenge though after a 5-1 defeat to the Jets at home in early November. I look for this faster-paced game to fly "over" the number well before the final horn sounds; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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02-14-22 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 120 | Top | 53-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* OVER (EXPRESS) UVA may be 16-9 overall, but it's just 4-5 on the road. VT is only 15-10 this season, but it's 9-3 at home. Neither team scores a lot of points, and each is among the best in the nation on the defensive side. That's why this total is so low. VT plays with revenge here though after a 54-52 setback at UVA back in mid January. The total in that contest was set 116.5, and it still stayed well below the number. VT though averages 70.9 PPG and it's seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 in trying to revenge a conference road loss to an opponent in which it was held to 55 or less points in; with the home side pushing the pace in its revenge bid, I believe the visitors, who average 63.4 PPG, will finally be forced out of their comfort zone defensively; expect this total to fly "over" the number before the final buzzer blares! AAA Sports |
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02-13-22 | Sabres v. Canadiens UNDER 6 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EXPRESS) Which team does this game MEAN more to? Both teams are tanking, and the one with the worst record at the end of the season is going to get the first pick in the draft. Buffalo is 14-24-7-1, while Montreal is 8-32-7. Each club is now officially "tanking" the rest of the way. Both struggle on the offensive end, and on the defensive end. So why is today's contest going to stay "under" the posted number? Note that Buffalo has seen the total to "under" in 5 of its last 6 off an extra time home loss in which the total eclipsed the posted number (lost 4-3 in OT to Columbus), while Montreal has seen the total go "over" in 6 of its last 8 home games following a home loss in which it was held to 1 or less goals in (lost 2-1 to Columbus.) Montreal lost 4-1 to Buffalo in late November, and I can't see these teams reaching that many goals this time around; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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02-12-22 | Maple Leafs v. Canucks UNDER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
10* UNDER (NON-CONF TOM) If you've followed us for any length of time, then you know that we don't follow any single handicapping methodology, but we instead believe that being flexible with one's approach to handicapping is the best way to secure profits over the long-term. Today we're basing this selection on some strong trends. Toronto has seen the total go over the number in 6 straight. That's significant to note as the Leafs have in fact seen the total dip under the number in 7 of their last 9 after playing to 5 or more straight overs in a row. Vancouver has seen the total go over in its last three games. That includes in both games since returning from the break. Vancouver only averages 2.50 GPG, while allowing 2.71. Expect the home side to double down on the defensive end this evening; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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02-12-22 | Belmont v. SE Missouri State OVER 156 | Top | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* OVER (OVC TOY) Southeast Missouri State is 11-14 overall. It's 6-6 in conference action. It'll have its hands full today with uptempo Belmont. The Bruins are 21-5 and 11-2 in league play. Belmont is the only team that Southeast Missouri State has never beaten in the conference, going 0-11 all-time in this series. BU has won 10 of the 11 matchups by double digits. That includes all 5 games at the Show Me Center. The Redhawks though enter on top form for this season, as they've won 5 of their last 8. Most recently it was a 76-47 win over SIU Edwardsville. That's significant to note as the Redhawks have seen the total go "over" in 7 of their last 9 off a SU/ATS win in which they held their opponent to 50 points or less in. Expect this faster-paced "shootout" to fly over the number sooner, rather than later; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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02-11-22 | Spurs v. Hawks UNDER 232.5 | Top | 136-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) The Spurs are 20-35 this year after a 105-92 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. It was their first of an 8-game road trip. ATL is 26-28 after beating the Pacers 133-112 on Tuesday. The victory snapped a 2-game slide for the Hawks. The Spurs average and concede pretty much exactly the same amount of points (111), while ATL averages 111.9, while allowing 111.7. I don't expect either team to hit its seasonal offensive average here though (finally note that the Hawks have seen the total go "under" the number in 6 of their last 8 after a SU/ATS home win of 20 or more points.) This number is just a little high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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02-10-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER (NON-CONF TOY) A potential Stanley Cup Finals preview pits the defending Stanley Cup Champion Tampa Bay Lightning up against the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday night. Both teams can score, and both teams can defend. I think this particular contest will be a wide-open "goal-fest" though. Tampa averages 3.37 GPG, while allowing 2.74. It's off a 3-2 OT win at home over the Sharks, but it's seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 off an OT win in which the total stay "under" the number. Colorado averages the most goals in the league per game (4.09), while allowing a middle of the pack 2.91. Off a 3-2 shootout loss at home to the lowly Coyotes, clearly getting caught looking ahead to this much more high-profile game, we can fully expect a return to the norm on the offensive end this evening. In this faster-paced affair, everything points to the "over" as the savvy call! AAA Sports |
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02-09-22 | Warriors v. Jazz OVER 221.5 | Top | 85-111 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
10* OVER (EXPRESS) Golden State is rolling again, as it's now won 9 straight. Most recently it was a 110-98 victory over Oklahoma City. The Jazz play with revenge here after falling 94-92 at Golden State back on January 23rd though. After a 5 game slide, Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz are back on track with 3 straight victories. Note that they've seen the total go over the number in 7 of their last 10 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 or less points in. The Jazz are the highest-scoring team in the league by averaging 113.6 PPG. Expect this comopetitive affair to fly over the number before the final buzzer sounds! AAA Sports |
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02-08-22 | Bucks v. Lakers UNDER 230 | Top | 131-116 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 60 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Milwaukee is fighting for top spot in the East, while LA is fighting for a spot in the playoffs. Non-conference affairs are usually less intense defensively, but I don't expect that to be the case today. Instead, I look for LA to run its offense through red hot big man Anthony Davis here, as LA looks to lock down Milwaukee and take control of tempo. If LeBron James and AD can stay healthy now, the Lakers are poised for a decent second-half run which could see them move up significantly. 1 game at a time though. The Bucks have won seven of their last 9. They're about to take over the top spot in the East again. Yes, these are two of the faster-paced teams in the NBA, but the circumstances definitely point to a competitive, but ultimately lower-scoring defensive affair. I say this is a few points too high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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02-06-22 | Pistons v. Wolves UNDER 229.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EXPRESS) Detroit won't be in the playoffs, but it will absolutely be hungry snap its 3-game slide tonight. To do that, it'll want to slow this one down and not let Minnesota dictate the tempo. At least that's my reckoning for the Pistons game plan today. Minnesota hasn't played since February 3rd when it beat Detroit on its own floor by a score of 128-117. That total flew well over the number. The Pistons have seen the total go "under" the number though in 7 of their last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS home loss in which they allowed 125 or more points in. I expect a more methodically-paced affair this time around; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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02-05-22 | Washington State v. California OVER 127 | Top | 68-64 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
10* OVER WSU/Cal (TOW) The 9-14 Cal Bears will look for a win here against the visiting 13-7 Washington State Cougars. These teams don't score a lot of points most nights, but I think this particular contest will be much more wide open than what this O/U line is suggesting. Tonight's total is extra low because when these two met in mid-January, the Cougars defeated the Bears by a score of 65-57. Note that Cal has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 7 of its last 8 in trying to revenge a conference road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 59 or fewer points in. Expect these two opponents to open things up and look for this total to fly well OVER the number! AAA Sports |
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02-05-22 | South Alabama v. Georgia State OVER 141 | 62-69 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
9* OVER Georgia State is hungry for a win here at 6-6 overall. South Alabama is 10-5. Both teams come in off losses and because of that, I'm expecting a really wide-open, and higher-scoring shootout here. Georgia State is off a 70-63 loss to UT Arlington. Georgia State has a 105.9 offensive rating through 12 games. On defense, it allows 105.7 points per 100 possessions. South Alabama fell 72-64 to App State in its most recent outing. It has a 102.3 adjusted offensive rating, while allowing 103.6 points per 100 possessions. Georgia State will be desperate here to snap its 5-game slide. With each side pushing the pace, everything points this one flying "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch! AAA Sports |
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02-04-22 | Nets v. Jazz OVER 229 | Top | 102-125 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
10* OVER (NON-CONF TOM) Yes, the Nets have issues. But they still have some really good players on the court. They won't be lacking motivation today, as Brooklyn enters having lost 5 straight. Most recently it was a pathetic 112-101 loss to lowly Sacramento (it's important to note here though that the Nets have seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of their last 10 after 3 or more SU loss in a row.) With a tough game at Denver up next, the Nets will be out to push the pace from the opening tip until the final horn this evening. Utah is in the same position. It needs to get back on track. It did break its 5-game slide with a 108-104 win over Denver and I say it keeps that positive momentum rolling here (especially with star Donovan Mitchell set to return from injury.) Expect little defense, a faster-pace and for this total to fly well "over" the number! AAA Sports |
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02-03-22 | Bulls v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | Top | 120-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) The Bulls are 32-18 and they have a 1-point lead over the 76ers for top spot in the East. They're going to have their hands full here though with a Raptors team that's 26-23 and which has won 3 straight. Toronto though will be extra motivated here, as it's lost 5 straight in this series, including both this season. The first game flew "over" the number, the second "under." Fatigue plays a factor here as we draw closer to the All Star game. The last thing Toronto can do here is turn this into a shootout with the Bulls. I expect a very competitive battle, but one that stays under the posted number! AAA Sports |
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02-02-22 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 226.5 | Top | 104-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOTAL EXPRESS) If you've followed me for any length of time, then you know that I don't follow any single particular handicapping methodology, but instead I believe that being flexible with ones appraoch is the best way to secure profits over the long term. I believe in using just the plain old "eye ball" test when it comes to games sometimes and that's going to be the case here. Denver is going to be super tired after its 130-115 loss at Minnesota just last night. The Nuggets have interestingly seen the total go "under" in 7 of their last 9 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they allowed 125 or more points in. The Jazz are off 5 straight losses. They have seen the total go "over" in 2 straight, but I expect them to come out and control the pace of tonight's contest. Without star Donovan Mitchell on the court, this Utah offense has stalled. For all the reasons listed above, I say the savvy wager as far as the total is concerned is on the under! AAA Sports |
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02-02-22 | Kings v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
10* OVER (DESTROYER) It's the FINAL night for the NHL before the All Star Break, so this is an interesting night to break down from a situational stand point I think. LA comes to Detroit having split wins and losses over its last six games, so it'll be trying to reverse that trend today after it's most recent 4-3 win at Pittsburgh. Previous to that it lost 4-3 at Philadelphia in overtime. I think the Kings can keep that offensive momentum rolling here in their final game before the break. LA averages 2.80 goals per game while allowing 2.72. Detroit averages 2.72 goals per game, but it allows 3.39. The Wings are off a rare decent defensive performance, managing a 2-1 overtime home win over Anaheim to end January, but they play with revenge here after a 4-0 loss at LA in early January. And that's important to note, because Detroit has seen the total go over the number in 8 of its last 10 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss against an opponent.Not overthinking this one, both teams are in need of a win here. I expect a faster paced affair; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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02-01-22 | Providence v. St. John's OVER 144.5 | Top | 86-82 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* OVER (MAULING) Providence is 8-1 in Big East action. Most recently it's coming off a 65-63 win over No. 22 Marquette on January 30th. Previous to that the Friars beat Xavier 65-62. Keep your eyes on Justin Minaya, who played all 80 minutes in those 2 victories. St. John's though has won 9 straight at home, where it averages 88.0 PPG on 58 percent shooting. Posh Alexander led the way last time out with 19 points. The over hit the last time these teams played in January and I expect another high-scoring shootout as well here. The over has hit in 7 of the last 9 in this series on this floor; expect that trend to continue tonight! AAA Sports |
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02-01-22 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 210.5 | Top | 106-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Looking at team's offensive and defensive numbers to make your decision when it comes to an Over/Under pick is always a great place to start. Then looking at recent form is another good place to go, followed by scheduling, the revenge factor, trends, any lop-sided numbers, where the public money is, among a few other important things. However, sometimes just plain old "common sense" is the best approach to handicapping a contest I've found. And that's DEFINITELY the case here. Miami has seen the total go over in 6 straight. It's running out of gas right now though, most recently falling 122-92 at Boston. Somehow the Heat have maintained their lead in the East despite significant injury. The Raptors are off B2B road victories, most recently beating a red hot Atlanta team 106-100 just last night. Looks like fatigue will be an issue for the home side. When you add it all up, everything points to a defensive affair here; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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01-31-22 | Raptors v. Hawks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 106-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* UNDER (TOW) This is the first meeting between the clubs this year. After shaky starts, each team has played really well of late. The Raptors are 24-23 on the season and they're in 8th spot in the East rigt now. They're coming off a 124-120 triple OT win over the Heat though, and fatigue will be a major issue here in my opinion. The last thing the Raps can afford to do is turn this into a run and gun shootout. The Hawks have won 7 in a row, most recently a 129-121 hom win over LA just last night. With a couple nights off before a home game against the Suns, I say the home side comes out flat here. Defense rules the day in this one; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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01-30-22 | Sharks v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10* UNDER Off a brutal 5-4 OT loss at Florida in which they allowed three unanswered goals in the 3rd period just last night, I say the Sharks come in tired and dejected here. They only average 2.77 GPG this year. And that's bad news facing this Carolina team that's won 3 straight, most recently a 2-1 win here over New Jersey (the Canes only concede 2.37 GPG, ranked No. 1 overall.) A great situational play today on the under! AAA Sports |
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01-30-22 | Blazers v. Bulls UNDER 230 | Top | 116-130 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* UNDER Blazers/Bulls (ASSASSIN) Portland broke a 2-game slide with a 125-110 road win at Houston. That's noteworthy for us, as note that the Blazers have seen the total go under the number in 7 of their last 9 off a SU/ATS road win in which they score 125 or more points in. Chicago plays with revenge here after falling 112-107 in Portland in mid November. And why is that important fact to take note of?! Because the Bulls have seen the total go UNDER in 9 of their last 13 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Each side has been involved in some higher-scoring games of late, but that's only helped in driving this number a few points higher than it should be; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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01-29-22 | Kings v. 76ers OVER 220.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOTAL BOB) Sacramento is coming off a 121-104 loss to Atlanta to fall to 18-32, while the 76ers are off a 105-87 win over the Lakers to move to 29-19. Philadelphia got 26 points from Joel Embiid in the win. He's averaging 28.9 points per game. He'll be a matchup issue for Sacramento today. The Kings will be desperate though! They're on a 5-game losing streak, losing to the Rockets and Pistons during that stretch. Harrison Barnes had 24 points in the loss to ATL. I think Philly pushes the pace here. The Kings will be able to match tempo; this number is a little low, the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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01-29-22 | Oilers v. Canadiens UNDER 6.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -113 | 25 h 53 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) The Oilers are averaging 3.21 goals per game, but they've struggled defensively, conceding 3.33. Thankfully for Edmonton today its defense catches a break facing this putrid Canadiens' offense that averages only 2.21 GPG. Yes, the Habs have been equally as terrrible defensively this season, allowing 3.79 GPG, but off a 3-2 shootout win at home over Nashville, I expect Edmonton to have its hands full here with this desperate home side that's off another tight loss, this time falling 5-4 at home to Anaheim. I don't think Edmonton will push the pace, instead it'll sit back and wait for Montreal to make the first mistake; expect this style of play to lead to a solid under as far as the total is concerned! AAA Sports |
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01-26-22 | Raptors v. Bulls UNDER 220 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* UNDER (EAST-CONFERENCE TOM) Common sense. Half the time I'll argue that just plain old common sense is the best way to approach and handicap a contest. Off a big 125-113 home win over Charlotte, I fully expect Toronto to stumble here in the 2nd game of the B2B. Chicago has struggled of late. It's off a 111-110 win at Oklahoma City. The Bulls though have been decimated with injuries and covid problems of late. Their scoring average has dropped of late and that'll again be an issue here against this methodical Toronto team. The Raptors play with revenge here after falling 111-108 at home as 2-point favs back in late October, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in 7 of their last 9 in tying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed 110 or more points in; this number is a tad high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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01-25-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 210 | Top | 92-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) Two teams that could see each other in the playoffs collide in Golden State on Tuesday night and in my opinion, this one is just streaming "over!" The Mavs are off a lower-scoring 104-91 win over Memphis. Why is that important? Because Dallas has seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of its last 9 off a SU/ATS victory in which it held its opponent to 95 points or less in. Golden State is off 2 straight wins. It held on for a 94-92 win over Utah last time out. That's also noteworthy, as GS has seen the total go "over" in 10 of its last 13 off a SU victory in which it held its opponent to 95 or less points in. This is a revenge game for the Warriors as well after falling 99-82 in Dallas earlier in the season. All signs point the rematch being much more wide-open though. Yes, these teams have played to several "unders" of late, but now the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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01-24-22 | Pacers v. Pelicans OVER 215 | Top | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOW) Are these two teams going to be in the playoffs this year? New Orleans certainly won't be. Indiana is struggling right now, but it still has an outside shot of making it. Neither team can be too happy where it sits in the standings right now. I expect this to be a competitive game, but one in which little defense is played. Both teams are dealing with injuries to star players, but that's only helped in dropping this total a few points lower than it normally would be. It's "next man up." Indiana averages 108.2 PPG, but fortunately for the Pels it concedes 109.1. It's been a weird season for Pacers and Pelicans fans. With nothing to lose for either side (except another game!), look for this more wide-open contest to produce some points; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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01-23-22 | 76ers v. Spurs OVER 222 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* OVER (NON-CONF TOY) The 76ers will be eager to return to form here after their listless 102-101 loss to the Clippers in their most recent action. The Spurs are off a 117-102 loss to Brooklyn as 1-point favs, so they won't be lacking motivation here either. Whe I bet on "overs" (in every sport), I make sure that both teams involved in the contest are motivated for some external reason. This particular contest falls directly into that category. Also note that the 76ers have seen the total go "over" the number in 10 of their last 13 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 105 or less points in. Expect this faster paced affair to fly "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch! AAA Sports |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | Top | 36-42 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) This is a very interesting matchup. The first thing that comes to mind when you think of these two teams are their dynamic men under center. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are both coming off big years, but each will need his respective "run game" to be established to find success today. The winner of this contest is going to win the game in the trenches. Ball control is going to be paramount. As will field position. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "under" in 7 of its last 8 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed 40 or more points in. The writing is on the wall. This is going to be a nail-biter, but one that falls well "under" the number! AAA Sports |
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01-22-22 | Flames v. Oilers OVER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
10* OVER (TOTAL ASSASSIN) Calgary broke a four-game slide with a much-needed 5-1 home win over Florida. The Flames have one of the best defenses in the league, but I say they have their hands full here against this determined Oilers team that's lost 7 straight. The Oilers most recently fell 6-0 to Florida in their most recent matchup. Edmonton though has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last ten off a shutoutout home loss of five or more goals. With each team desperate for more victories, we can expect this one to eclipse this number early! AAA Sports |
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01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER (DIV TOY) San Francisco has advanced to this point behind its relentless defensive attack and impressive run. The last thing that Jimmy Garoppolo can do here is to try and match pace with Aaron Rodgers. San Fran's plan while on offense, will be to hold onto that ball as long as possible, to keep Rodgers off the field of play. If Green Bay is going to finally get over the hump and return to the Super Bowl this season, clearly its defense will have to play a key part. The temperatures are expected to be near 0 and there could be winds of up to 20 mile per hour. Look for this cold weather and the rest of the factors listed above to lead to a solid "under" in this one! AAA Sports |
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01-21-22 | St. Peter's v. Niagara OVER 123.5 | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* OVER (MAAC TOY) The 6-6 Saint Peters' Peacocks enter on top form, having won 3 straight. Most recently it was a 65-57 win over Canisius. Isiah Dasher led the Peacocks with 17 points and 2 rebounds. The Niagara Purple Eagles are 8-8, but they've been playing well as well, with 5 straight wins. Most recently it was a 72-63 win over Manhattan. Noah Thomasson led the way with 20 points, 3 rebounds, 4 assists and 4 steals. Both teams have been playing to lots of low-scoring games, but I expect this competitive contest to be a shootout. Each team has been great of late, so expect that to translate into offensive production today; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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01-20-22 | Texas State v. Arkansas-Little Rock UNDER 138 | Top | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER (SUNBELT TOY) I think this one sets up really nicely from a situational standpoint. Most of my Over/Under releases I base upon strong "situations," and that's definitely the case here in my opinion. Arkansas Little Rock struggles to score at the best of times, but after nearly a two-week COVID hiatus, I firmly believe the Trojans will have a very slow start to this game offensively. Instead, I expect the home side to double down on the defensive end here against the Texas State Bobcats. To say this is a revenge game for the Bobcats would be an understatement, as ALRU has won 9 of the last 10 in the series, including all 4 games last year. Texas State rallied to beat UL Lafayette 72-68 last time out, but it's seen the total go under the number in 7 of its last 11 after an ATS home loss to a conference opponent. For all the reasons listed here, my official call on the total is definitely on the under! AAA Sports |
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01-19-22 | Magic v. 76ers OVER 212.5 | Top | 110-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
10* OVER (EAST-CONF TOM) Orlando is a terrible team. It only averages 101.6 points per game and it's one of the worst defensive clubs as well. It's off a poor 98-88 loss at Orlando. The thing is, the Magic have responded well in this spot for "over" bettors, as Orlando has seen the total go over the number in 8 of its last 10 off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 points or less in. The Magic will be extra motivated here as well after falling 116-106 to the 76ers in earl January. Philadelphia has been playing decently, but it'll be eager to bounce back from a poor 117-98 loss at Washington in its latest (however note, the 76ers have seen the total eclipse the number in 10 of their last 14 off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 99 points or less in.) Considering all of the above information, my official call is to play the over in this one! AAA Sports |
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01-18-22 | Islanders v. Flyers OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* OVER Isles/Flyers (TOW) The Islanders have been playing well of late, as they've won 7 of their last 10 games. That includes a 4-1 win over these very Flyers in Philadelphia last night. New York has seen the total go "under" in 5 straight, which is worth noting as the Isles have seen the total go "over" in 6 of their last 8 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. Philadelphia has seen the total fly "over" in six of its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 1 or less goals in. Expect a much faster-paced affair here; this one flies well over the number! AAA Sports |
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01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 50.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 176 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNDER (WC TOTAL TOY) If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters for each side. You know the story lines. Even the most casual NFL fan knows the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams. If you want an in-depth analysis on offensive and defensive stats for each team and individual player breakdowns, then I'd suggest just going over to ESPN. That's what they do best. Break down games and give out stats. I'm here to tell you why this game is going "under" the number, and not "over." Both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford will need their respective run games to be established throughout this contest to have any success themselves. This game is going to be won and lost in the trenches. Field position and ball control will be paramount. Look for this clock to get eaten quickly and for this total to stay well under what I believe to be a sky-high total attached to this one! AAA Sports |
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01-17-22 | Indiana v. Nebraska UNDER 146.5 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* BIG TEN TOTAL OF MONTH Under Indiana/Nebraska The Hoosiers will be eager to return to their winning ways today after an 83-74 loss to Iowa last time out. Indiana has just one win on the road though. If Indiana is going to win this game, it won't be because of its offense. The Hoosiers average only 74.9 points per game, but they make up for it on the other end by conceding just 62.2. That defense catches a break here today as well, as Nebraska is only averaging 73.4 PPG, while allowing 79.2. Off a loss and on the road, we can expect Indiana to double down on its efforts on the defensive end; a great situational play on the under! AAA Sports |
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01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs OVER 46.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 152 h 11 m | Show | |
8* OVER (SPECIAL) Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes would have been watching the Patriots and Bills game last night. Mahomes would have seen what Bills' QB Josh Allen did, by throwing for 308 yards and five TD's. And so we can absolutely bet that Mahomes will be to even better that performance here. KC has seen AT LEAST 46 points scored in its last 5 games and it's averaging a whopping 35.4 points per game over that stetch. So, we know that the Chiefs can score today at home, but does Ben Roethlisber have anything left in the tank? If this were being played in Pittsburgh, I'd likely lean to the "under," but the visiting side is going to be forced to open up the playbook tonight. The weather is going to cooperate tonight as well. All of the listed reasons above make the "over" the correct call here! AAA Sports |
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01-16-22 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 224 | Top | 125-102 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (WEST-COAST EXPRESS) This is a big game for Utah, which enters having lost four straight (and the most recent was pretty pathetic, as the Jazz fell 111-91 at home to Cleveland of all teams.) The Jazz haven't won since a 115-109 win here back on January 5th. Since that loss to Utah, Denver has won four of its last five. That includes two huge offensive victories, first smashing an undermanned Portland 140-108, before destroying an undermanned Lakers side 133-96 in the its most recent. But the Nuggets now face a super focused Jazz team that I believe will look to slow the pace of this one down from start to finish. All of the above factors come together to make the "under" the savvy call here! AAA Sports |
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01-15-22 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 221.5 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* OVER Raptors/Bucks (A$$A$$IN) Both teams have been playing to several "unders" of late, but I'm definitely expecting a MUCH more wide open contest this evening. The Raptors will be eager to atone for last night's listless 103-87 loss at the lowly Pistons. Note though, TO has seen the total go "over" the number in 17 of its last 26 off a SU/ATS road loss in which it scored 90 or fewer points in. The Bucks though will be extra-motivated here, as they play with revenge after falling 117-111 to the Raptors on January 5th. That total sailed WELL "over" the posted number of 221 and in my opinion, this one definitely will as well; the play is the over! AAA Sports |
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01-12-22 | Hornets v. 76ers OVER 226.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10* OVER The Charlotte Hornets have been better than advertised this season. They're 22-19. They're also 14-9 against the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia is only 8-8 at home, but 23-16 overall. But the 76ers are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now, entering having won eight of their last ten. The Hornets are off a momentum-building 103-99 win over Milwaukee, which is noteworthy as they've seen the total fly above the posted number in 7 of their last 9 off a SU/ATS win in which they held their opponent to 99 points or less in. The 76ers smashed the Rockets in their last game, hitting 45% from the floor. Look for these two "hot" teams to push the pace and then look for this total to fly well 'over' the number! AAA Sports |
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01-12-22 | Georgia v. Mississippi State UNDER 146.5 | Top | 72-88 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
10* UNDER (SEC TOY) I'm expecting a defensive affair in this one. Mississippi State is 10-4, while Georgia is 5-10. The Bulldogs though are looking to rebound here after an 82-72 loss at rival Mississippi this past weekend. Here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against. Georgia has lost five of it slast six and it's coming off a 15-point loss at Kentucky. Georgia plays at a slow pace, ranked 121st in the nation by KenPom. Mississippi State though plays to an even slower pace, ranked 316th. Mississippi State's strength is on the offensive side, but it's not going to have to keep the foot on the gas against this offensively challenged Georgia team. The last thing Georgia can do is turn this into a "track-meet," so I'm expecting a slower-pace overall. This number is a tad high, the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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01-11-22 | DePaul v. Marquette UNDER 150.5 | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* UNDER (BE TOM) DePaul is off a 79-64 home loss to Villanova and I think it'll have difficulty on the offensive end again today. Marquette comes in off a 92-64 victory over Georgetown. DePaul has now dropped eight straight ranked games. Marquette is now 2-3 in league action after its latest victory. Note that the 28-point victory that the Golden Eagles had over the Hoyas was their largest-ever winning margin on the road in BIG EAST regular season play. Suffice it to say, I expect a bit of regression here. The under has gone 7-1 in the Blue Demons last eight games following a double-digit loss as well. Expect a slower-pace, and ultimately a lower-scoring contest. AAA Sports |
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01-09-22 | Spurs v. Nets OVER 230.5 | 119-121 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL on over Spurs/Nets. The Spurs won 99-97 at Boston, before then falling 119-100 at Philadelphia in their most recent matchup on Friday. The Spurs have been decent offensively this year, averaging 110.7 PPG. They'll have to be sharp again here against this Brooklyn Nets team that's gone just 1-4 SU in its last five and 0-5 ATS. Most recently it was a humbling 121-109 setback to the Bucks. Brooklyn averages 110.7 points per game and note that it's seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 20 after five or more ATS losses in a row. Pushing the pace is music to the Spurs' ears in this case. In what I predict to be faster-paced, up-tempo game, the sharp money as far as the total is concerned in my opinion is on the over! AAA Sports |
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01-08-22 | Rangers v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
10* OVER (Rangers/Ducks non-conference TOY) Perhaps surprisingly, these two teams are two of the best in their respective conferences. The Rangers are 22-9-4, just one game behind the Capitals, while the Ducks are 18-11-7, just four points shy of first-place Las Vegas. New York only averages 2.86 goals per game this year, which ranks 17th and goaltender Alexandar Georgiev is 6-4-2 with a 2.89 goals-against average and .904 save percentage. The Ducks are only allowing 2.74 GPG this year. Anaheim netminder Anthony Stoarz though is 6-2-1 with a 2.13 goals-against average and .932 save percentage. But these backups aren't as good as their respective starters. Also note that Anaheim has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect a more wide-open affair here, one that flies well "over" before the final horn sounds! AAA Sports |
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01-08-22 | Heat v. Suns UNDER 216.5 | Top | 123-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
UNDER (10* NON-CONF TOTAL OF MONTH) Miami is injured and dealing with covid issues, but it's still somehow finding ways to win, most recently holding on for a 115-109 road win at Portland. I expect a strong defensive performance from Miami today, as obviously the last thing it can afford to do here is to "open things up" against these high-flying Suns. Phoenix is off a 106-89 win over the Clippers at home. The Suns' defense looked fantastic and we can expect a similar performance here against this undermanned Miami side. This is the final home game before a tough five-game road swing for the Suns, which starts off in Toronto on Monday. Look for Phoenix to conserve some energy here and to "control" the pace of this one. This number is high, the play is the under for sure! AAA Sports |
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01-08-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles UNDER 43.5 | 51-26 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
UNDER (8*) Both teams have clinched a spot. Dallas is the second-highest scoring team in the league, averaging 402.8 yards of offense per game, but clearly, the last thing that the visiting side will do today is to put QB Dak Prescott too much into "harms way." This one means more to Dallas, as a win will improve its positioning, but a win or a loss here will mean nothing to Philadelphia. To make matters worse for the Eagles, over 15 starters are out because of covid-19 protocols. This one is going to be decided in the trenches. This one has more the feel of a "chess match," where field position is paramount. I don't predict much scoring in this one, so the pick is on the under! AAA Sports |
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01-06-22 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. Louisiana-Monroe UNDER 150.5 | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Little Rock/UL Monroe under (8*) The Little Rock Trojans are 6-7 and the Louisiana Monroe Warhawks are 8-6. UL Monroe is off a 77-69 loss to App State, while the Trjoans are off a 78-66 win over Georgia State. Little Rock though is 0-4 on the road this season. They've faced the 94th most difficult schedule according to KenPom. The Warhawks will be kicking themselves as they had a 6-point half-time lead in their latest loss to App State. I expect this game to be close, but also highly competitive. Considering these situational factors, it's my professional opinion that this total is much too high; the play is the under! AAA Sports |
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01-02-22 | Pacers v. Cavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* EAST-COAST TOTAL EXPRESS on OVER Pacers/Cavs. The Pacers will be motivated today. They're just 14-22 this year and they've lost six of their last eight games. The Cavaliers are 20-16, but they'll be hungry here as well after losing four of their last five. It's important to me whenever wagering on an "over" play (in every/any sport), that the two teams involved in the contest are "hungry." If a team is on a 15 game win streak, I question their motivation levels. When a team has lost four of five and six of eight, there's no question about their resolve (at this point of the season anyways, as we haven't even reached the mid-way point.) The Cavs lost to the Hawks on Friday, but they've seen the total soar "over" the number in seven of their last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. This one flies "over!" AAA Sports |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 143 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So once again, we’re going with the Over in a Bengals game. Last week was a little scary when it was announced Baltimore was being forced to turn to Josh Johnson, a little-known third stringer. But the Ravens’ QB situation ended up being a non-factor as the Bengals exploded for 31 points before halftime and Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns. Incredibly, the Over was a winner going into halftime with the score 31-14. Now, to expect Cincinnati to repeat last week’s offensive effort seems optimistic. But thankfully, we’ve got Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on the other sideline. The Chiefs have scored 48, 34 and 36 points the last three weeks and are really humming along with eight straight victories. Their defense has been very impressive during the win streak, holding seven opponents to 17 points or fewer. But outside of the Cowboys and Chargers, the latter of which scored 28 against the Chiefs, none of the offenses faced were as good as Cincinnati’s. The Bengals are 0-2 SU/ATS off their first two 40+ point efforts this season, however, let it be known those two games also both went Over. There were 65 and 63 total points scored. Six of the Bengals’ last nine games have gone Over. Only one of those last nine games, a 32-13 win over Las Vegas, had fewer than 49 total points scored. The Over is 5-0 the last five times the Bengals have been off an ATS win. Play on OVER AAA |
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01-02-22 | Rams v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 10 m | Show | |
8* NON-CONF. TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the under Rams/Ravens. The Rams are 11-4. They're off a 30-23 win at Minnesota last weekend. The Rams struggled in the second half though and QB Matt Stafford threw three picks. Sony Michel stepped up with 131 rushing yards and a TD. Matt Gay made three field goals. On the other side of the field, the Ravens are now 8-7 after getting destroyed 41-21 against the Bengals. LaMar Jackson remains questionable for this game for the Ravens, meaning backup Tyler Huntley, who is off the COVID list now, will likely get the start. Stafford is suddenly struggling. The Ravens' QB issue is up in the air right now. This is a game that's going to be decided by whichever team can establish its run game, and in the trenches. This total is much too high! AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Oral Roberts UNDER 151 | Top | 62-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* SUMMIT TOTAL OF YEAR on the under Nebraska Omaha/Oral Roberts. The 2-11 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks are on the road to take on the 8-6 Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and in my opinion, we're going to witness a much more defensive affair than what this line is suggesting. The Mavericks snapped their 11-game slide with an 84-78 win over the Western Illinois Leathernecks last time out. Omaha averages just 64.9 PPG this year, while allowing 80.3. Oral Roberts is averaging 80.9 PPG, while conceding just 68.1. The Eagles are off an 83-66 win over Denver in their last game. I think the Mavericks though will have a predictable letdown here after their win in their last game. Oral Roberts doesn't need to run up the score here to win this game, just control it. When the smoke clears, expect this total to say under the number. AAA Sports |
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01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State OVER 64 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 49 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Ohio State has had some opt outs, including receiver Chris Olave, but the nation’s #1 scoring offense (45.5 points/game) should still put plenty of points on the board in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes were also the nation’s leading team in total offense at 551.4 yards/game. They still have QB C.J. Stroud to throw the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the most talented receiver in the program. But there are now big questions about this Buckeyes’ defense after it got run over by Michigan in a loss that cost them a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game. It was the third time that the Buckeyes allowed 200+ yards rushing in a game this year. One of the previous two was in a home loss to Oregon, a team Utah crushed twice. The Utes are going to run the ball effectively on New Year’s Day; they are averaging 216 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards/carry. There were only three games that Utah failed to score at least 30 points. During their current six game win streak, they have averaged nearly 40 points/game. Return man Britain Covey had two punt returns for touchdowns and should consistently give his team good starting field position. Before their last three games all stayed Under, Utah was on an 11-2 Over run. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-31-21 | Clippers v. Raptors UNDER 211 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Clippers come into the final game of 2021 sporting an 18-17 overall record. That’s good for sixth in the Western Conference. In their last game, the Clippers clearly benefited from some atrocious shooting by the opposition. They were in Boston and the Celtics somehow shot 4 of 42 from three-point range! The game ended up as a 91-82 final, the fifth time in the last six Clippers’ games that the Under hit. Toronto, who is just 14-17 and 11th in the Eastern Conference, has seen its last five games all go Over. So something will have to give here, at least when it comes to the total. The Raptors aren’t about to miss 38 3PA on Friday, but they are still a team that has scored less than 100 points in six of the last 12 games. Los Angeles continues to be undermanned with Paul George out and Kawhi Leonard still has yet to play a single game this season. So we don’t anticipate much scoring from the visitors, who only average 103.5 points/game on the road. Only once in the past seven games have the Clippers scored more than 105 points. The last five meetings between the teams have all gone Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama OVER 58 | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 578 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We all think we know who is going to win this CFP semifinal. Since 1978, there has been exactly one previous instance of a team entering its bowl as an underdog of 13.5 or more points despite being 10-0 or better. Cincinnati is now the second. They take on #1 Alabama, who just made an emphatic statement in the SEC Championship Game by scoring 41 points on Georgia’s top-ranked defense. The Crimson Tide average 42.5 points/game for the season. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring on Cincinnati. But the thing is, this Alabama defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years. They allowed 23.0 points/game away from home. That may not sound bad, but most Nick Saban defenses give up fewer than 20 points/game. The last three games saw Bama give up an average of 27 points. Cincinnati can put points on the board. They average 39.2 per game. They scored 35 in all but four games. Is this an obvious step up in class for them? Of course it is. But the Bearcats will score enough to help send this one Over. The Over has hit in 23 of Alabama’s last 36 neutral site games and that includes three pushes. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-30-21 | Cavs v. Wizards OVER 211.5 | Top | 93-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Cleveland is perhaps the biggest surprise team in the league so far. That’s reflected by a remarkable 24-8-2 ATS record, easily the best in the league. But this surprise start by the Cavaliers has taken a hit in recent days, not just due to COVID, but also PG Rubio was lost to a season-ending ACL injury. The injury occurred in Tuesday’s 108-104 loss to New Orleans, a game where the Cavs clearly ran out of gas in the second half. Here, facing Washington, we do see the Cavs at least scoring enough to make sure the game goes Over the total. The Wizards have struggled at the defensive end all month. Going back to December 6th, there’s been only one game where the Wizards did not give up at least 113 points. Their last three games have all gone Over and what was significant about the last one is that it was an undermanned team (Miami), similar to the Cavs here. Despite dealing with COVID-related absences themselves, the Over is 10-3 for the Wizards this month. That trend should continue here as the total set by the oddsmakers is simply too low. It was 116-101 Cavs when these teams played back on December 1st. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-29-21 | Canucks v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Teams are getting back on the ice and few are chomping at the bit more than Vancouver is. The Canucks were on a six-game win streak when the season was paused nearly two weeks ago. They’d scored four or more goals in four of the six wins. The Canucks’ next opponent will be Anaheim, who has been a surprise this year, spending a good amount of time in first place in the Pacific Division. Expect this first game back to be a pretty high-scoring affair. The Ducks’ last two games before the pause, both at home, were a 4-1 win and 6-5 loss. The Ducks are one of nine teams with more than 100 goals scored entering Wednesday. Vancouver is giving up 3.5 goals/game on the road. The Over is 21-5 in Anaheim’s previous 26 division games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma OVER 60.5 | Top | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Both Oklahoma and Oregon have lost their head coaches to other schools and key defensive personnel will be sitting out the Alamo Bowl. So don’t go expecting a ton of defense to be played in this game. Oklahoma will be coached by Bob Stoops on Wednesday night as former protege Lincoln Riley is off to USC while Brent Venables, the former Clemson defensive coordinator and Riley’s permanent replacement, watches on. Oregon’s interim head coach will be Bryan McClendon as they lost Mario Cristobal to Miami FL (his alma mater) and Dan Lanning (Cristobal’s successor) is still coaching the defense at Georgia. Oklahoma will be minus four starters on defense, their top tackler and three sack leaders. That seems significant. Oregon is going to be without its best defensive player, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who could be the #1 pick in the next NFL Draft. The two offenses are in much better shape heading into this game and both averaged more than 30 points/game this year. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-26-21 | Ravens v. Bengals OVER 44.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 143 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER UPDATE: When we made this play, we obviously did not expect Johnson to be the QB for the Ravens. But this is an opportunity of a lifetime for the veteran. He's gotten games in this year and has a great offense around him. Call us crazy but you should still expect Baltimore to put points on the board... The Ravens may have failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point try last week. But they definitely didn’t have any issue putting up points. This despite backup Tyler Huntley playing quarterback. Huntley had 215 yards passing and 73 yards rushing in the 31-30 loss against the Packers. So we’re pretty confident that Baltimore is going to score plenty of points on Sunday, no matter if it’s Huntley or Lamar Jackson at QB. Jackson had never missed a game before last week. This is a huge game in the AFC North vs. Cincinnati. The Bengals beat the Ravens 41-17 earlier in the year. The teams enter this rematch tied at 8-6. Cincy won last week in Denver, 15-10. Had they lost, both they and the Ravens would be on a three-game skid. The Bengals average 26.4 points/game, so they should not have problems scoring. We know that they did have problems against the Broncos. However, last week marked only the third game in 2021 that Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. Defensively, the Bengals have allowed 41 points twice in the last four home games. Those last four home games have all seen at least 49 total points scored. Bengals’ home games average 51.9 points/game. Huntley proved himself to us last week, so we’re satisfied no matter if it’s him or Jackson starting this week. The Over is 5-1 the previous six times Baltimore has been off a straight-up loss. The Over has cashed the last four times Cincinnati has been off a win. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals OVER 49 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Indianapolis is going to be playing without three of its five starting offensive linemen on Christmas. But considering that they scored 27 points last week with Carson Wentz completing only five passes for 57 yards, we believe the Colts can still score a reasonable number of points in this game. Arizona has given up 30 points in each of its last two games. The Colts come in putting an average of 28 points/game on the board. Though Wentz struggled in the last game (still beat the Patriots) and the offensive line is banged up, handing the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor seems easy enough. Taylor leads the league - by a wide margin - with over 1500 yards rushing. He had 170 last week. Stopping the Cardinals’ offense may prove to be difficult for the Colts, however. Despite playing without WR Hopkins, Kyler Murray still threw for 257 yards last week in what ended up being an embarrassing loss to Detroit. The Indianapolis’ defense is not particularly great against the run or pass, so the Cardinals offense should have success. Each of the last five times the Colts have been underdogs, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 209 | Top | 87-101 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Two teams, each playing without a significant chunk of their roster, aren’t about to go Over the total in an early Christmas start. The main attraction for this game was supposed to be Trae Young’s return to the Garden as he was “public enemy #1” of Knicks’ fans during the playoffs last season. But Young isn’t playing on Christmas. There will be several other Hawks’ players unable to suit up - due to the league’s health and safety protocols - as well. But the key is Young. Over the last two years, in the 11 games that Young has missed, Atlanta only averages 103.5 points/game. His 27,3 point and 9.3 assist per game averages are irreplaceable. For New York, some players are set to return from protocol, but when they played the Hawks last month it ended up being a 99-90 game. Going back to the playoff series last May, the most total points scored in any of the last six Hawks-Knicks games is 212. Of the 11 players that suited up against NY last month for Atlanta, only two are certain to play on Christmas Day. The Knicks got 44 points from Kemba Walker the other night, a number he will almost certainly not match here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-21-21 | Lightning v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The last NHL game before a “holiday break” will go down in Sin City as the Golden Knights host the Lightning. Both teams can score and are likely to give us some “final fireworks” for 2021. Tampa Bay, surprisingly, is down in scoring this year. But they are still putting up 3.4 goals per game on the road. As for Vegas, they are averaging 3.6 goals/game and have found the back of the net 22 times in the last five games.Seven of Vegas’ last 10 games have seen more than six combined goals scored. Tampa has played three straight low-scoring games, but they played Ottawa twice and Los Angeles. At no point in the season have the Lightning gone Under in four consecutive games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-21-21 | Suns v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
full analysis to follow |
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12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA OVER 49 | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl features two teams that are a combined 23-3 this year. Both appeared in their respective Conference Championship Games. UTSA is 12-1 and won the Conference USA Title Game, beating Western Kentucky by a score of 49-41. San Diego State is 11-2, but lost the Mountain West Title Game, 46-13 to Utah State. The Aztecs usually play better defense than they showed in that last game, but missing several players because of COVID-19 proved too difficult to overcome. Stopping the UTSA offense will also be challenging. The Roadrunners put up 37.8 points/game. While they won’t have RB McCormick and San Diego State is likely the best defense they’ve faced in 2021, look for UTSA to still put up a solid number of points in this game. To this point, we’ve seen little defense played in these early bowls (typical) and the Over is 7-1 entering Monday. The Conference USA Title Game marked the fifth time since the beginning of October that UTSA scored 44 or more points in a game. The San Diego State offense may not pack the same sort of punch, but going against a UTSA defense that will be down a couple of starters is a nice break. UTSA allows 5.6 yards per play and it’s last three opponents averaged 39 points. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-19-21 | Blazers v. Grizzlies OVER 220 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s been two very different Decembers for Portland and Memphis. The Blazers have lost seven of their eight games this month (and are just 2-10 in their L12). The Grizzlies have won 10 of their last 11, all without Ja Morant, including five straight victories. To say that’s a surprise would be putting it mildly. Perhaps most surprising of all is the Grizzlies’ ability to score. They average 111.5 points/game, tied for third in the NBA. They’ve topped that season-average in each of the last four games. In the last game, they scored 124 points against the Kings and picked up a third straight double digit victory. There’s no reason to believe Memphis won’t have another big offensive night here. Portland is allowing 111.4 points/game this year, fourth most in the league. During this 2-10 slide, they’ve allowed 115.6 points/game. But the Blazers did win last time out, 125-116 against Charlotte, thanks to a season-high 43 points from Damian Lillard. This has the makings of a high-scoring affair. The Over has hit in each of Portland’s previous five Sunday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-19-21 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 44 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 8* on OVER The Cowboys and Giants renew acquaintances in Week 15. The Cowboys lead the NFC East by three games with a 9-4 record. After taking a 24-0 lead into halftime last week vs. Washington, things did get a bit too close for comfort when the Football Team stormed back to get within seven. But Dallas did win the game, 27-20. Another win here would move Dallas very close to wrapping up a division title. In recent years, the Giants have been rather accommodating. Including a 44-20 win on Oct 10, the Cowboys have taken eight of the last nine meetings from the Giants. The incarnation of the G-men that they will face on Sunday has Mike Glennon playing QB. The Giants lost 37-21 last week to the Chargers to fall to 4-9. Despite Glennon playing QB for the Giants and the Cowboys’ being banged up at running back, we like this game to go Over, just as the last meeting did. Dallas is second in the league in scoring at 29.2 points/game. We had the Over in last week’s game vs. Washington and were denied a win by a missed extra point. We look for this game to make it Over, as similar to last week, the Cowboys should race out to a big lead and then start playing lax defense. The Over is 17-8 in the previous 25 Cowboys-Giants matchups, including 4-1 the previous five. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Northern Illinois OVER 62 | Top | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Northern Illinois was perhaps as lucky as lucky can be in 2021. The Huskies won seven games by eight (points) or less, four of those wins coming by a total of five points including THREE one-point victories. People who measure this sort of stuff deemed NIU the luckiest team in all of College Football this year. The Huskies’ opponent in the Cure Bowl is 10-2 Coastal Carolina, a team that had an unbeaten regular season last year. A 23-3 SU record over a two-year span deserves to be marveled at and it’s why the Chanticleers are such heavy favorites on Friday. But what we like in the Cure Bowl is the Over. Coastal is averaging over 40 points and almost 500 yards per game, so they are surely capable of doing the “heavy lifting” in this one as far as points are concerned. Especially going against a NIU defense that surrenders 448.3 yards/game. But let’s not discount what the Northern Illinois offense is capable of doing. They’ve scored 30 or more in five of their last six games, including 41 in the MAC Championship vs. Kent State. More often than not, very little defense is played in these “early” bowl games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-17-21 | St Bonaventure v. Virginia Tech OVER 129.5 | Top | 49-86 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER St. Bonaventure and Virginia Tech take the floor Friday for an afternoon tipoff in the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. The Bonnies are 8-2 while Va Tech is 7-4. But despite the superior won-loss record, St. Bonaventure is the underdog in this game. They are just 3-6 ATS, including 0-5 L5 games. While perhaps not all that trustworthy plus the points, the Bonnies have been doing plenty of scoring of late. They’ve averaged 77.8 points in those last five contests, even after being held to just 64 in a loss to UConn last Saturday. That loss to UConn saw them shoot a season-low 38.7% from the field. That was after shooting a season-high 60% in a win over Loyola MD in the previous game. Kyle Lofton, the Bonnies’ leading scorer and part of an all-senior starting lineup, has missed the last three games. But he returned to practice on Monday. Va Tech, like St. Bonaventure, rates in the Top 50 in offensive efficiency. The Hokies have also had their struggles recently, dropping four of their last six games. They too shot it poorly last time out. We’re quite confident that St. Bonaventure, who is 9-2-1 Over off their previous 12 losses, will score a solid number of points today. The total is low and Va Tech is 7-3-1 Over L11 neutral site games. We see this going Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-16-21 | Pistons v. Pacers UNDER 211 | Top | 113-122 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Indiana lost last night despite Milwaukee having seven players, Giannis Antetokounmpo among them, ruled out because of COVID-19. Not only did the Pacers lose to the undermanned Bucks, they did so by 15 points, a very embarrassing result. The loss leaves the Pacers at 12-18 SU (15-14-1 ATS) and ahead of only two teams in the East - Orlando and Detroit. They face the Pistons tonight. Little has gone right in the Motor City this season for a Pistons team that is 4-22 and has lost 12 in a row. They have the worst SU record in the NBA, although they are a slightly more respectable 12-14 ATS. Under is our call for this one as that’s how all six division games for the Pistons have ended up this season. They’ve averaged only 87.8 points in those contests. Detroit is arguably the worst offensive team in the league as it shoots just 41% overall and 31% from three. The Under is 3-0 in Indiana’s last three games as well. Last night’s game was the highest scoring of the three, but still only 213 combined points were scored and that was because of Milwaukee. The Under is 5-0 this season when the Pacers are in the second night of a back to back and when these teams met back on November 17th, the final score was 97-89 (Pistons won!) Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-15-21 | Morehead State v. Xavier OVER 135.5 | Top | 63-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Xavier comes into tonight ranked #25 in the country and has a 9-1 SU record. Their only loss was to an Iowa State team that’s still undefeated. Since that loss, the Musketeers have not just won - but also covered - five straight games. The most impressive win took place on Saturday when they smoked rival Cincinnati 83-63. We had the Over in that game and will play this game the same way. This time the Musketeers are hosting Morehead State. The Eagles are 6-4 on the year after losing 82-75 at East Tenn State on Saturday. While they may rank first among Ohio Valley Conference teams in scoring defense, slowing down Xavier should be a tougher challenge. The Musketeers have averaged 83.5 points their last four games. Assuming Xavier, at the very least, hits its season average of 75.8 points per game, then all we would need from Morehead State is 62 points, which is below their season average. Asking two teams to hit their season average in points per game doesn’t seem like asking for “too much.” If it happens, then we’ve easily got our Over, a bet which has hit 11 of the previous 16 games where Xavier has been off an ATS win. AAA |
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12-13-21 | 76ers v. Grizzlies UNDER 210 | Top | 91-126 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The 76ers and Grizzlies are both coming off wins. In fact, Memphis has won seven of eight since Ja Morant went down with a sprained left knee injury on November 26th. That’s certainly surprising. But maybe not as surprising as what the Sixers pulled off on Saturday, beating Golden State 102-93. That was Philly’s fourth win in its last five games. We’re not sure which team will continue its recent success, but we do like the Under tonight. With Morant out, Memphis has heavily relied on its defense. The 106 points they allowed in the win over Houston Saturday night were actually the most given up in any of those last eight games. In five of those eight games, they’ve held the opponent to 95 or less. Philadelphia holding Golden State to just 93 points is just as impressive as what Memphis has done defensively of late. That was also the fourth time in the last seven games that the Sixers didn’t give up 100 points. The Under is 11-3 for Philly this year when facing a team that has a winning record. Expect a low-scoring affair here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-12-21 | Villanova v. Baylor OVER 138.5 | Top | 36-57 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We’ve got what looks to be a heck of a showdown in College Basketball on Sunday as #2 Baylor takes on #6 Villanova in the headliner of the Big 12-Big East Battle. Baylor, last year’s National Champs, is still undefeated at 9-0. They average 84 points/game. The schedule hasn’t all been all that challenging up to this point, but the Bears have scored at least 75 in every game except the one vs. Virginia Commonwealth. They put up a season-high 99 last time out. Villanova happens to be off its season-low point total as they could only manage 67 in a win over Syracuse earlier in the week. But the Wildcats, who are 7-2 on the season, are averaging 78.2 per game. Look for these two national powers to play a high-scoring game on Sunday, much higher scoring than their meeting in the Sweet 16 last March when they combined to go 6 of 36 from three-point range. The Over is 14-4 in Baylor’s last 18 games in Waco. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-12-21 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 48 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -102 | 67 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Washington has gotten back into the NFC East race by winning four straight games. They are also 4-0 ATS during that time as they’ve been the underdog in all four wins. So this is quite the run that the Football Team is on right now. On Sunday, they can further narrow the division lead as first place Dallas comes to town. The Cowboys, coming off back to back Thursday games, are 8-4 and still have a two-game lead over Washington. Last week saw Dallas go to New Orleans and win 27-17 as a 6.5 point favorite. That came on the heels of a shocking overtime loss on Thanksgiving to the Raiders. The final score of that Thanksgiving Day loss was 36-33. We expect this one to be high scoring as well. The Cowboys offense is finally healthy. Pay close attention to the status of RB Pollard, who missed practice on Wednesday, but even if he can’t go the team still has Ezekiel Elliott to hand the ball off to. Washington’s last two games both ended up as 17-15 finals, but they moved the ball more than you might think. The Over has hit 9 of the previous 11 times these teams have met. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-11-21 | Cincinnati v. Xavier OVER 132 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER City rivals Cincinnati and Xavier renew acquaintances on Saturday evening. Cincinnati is 7-2 with their losses coming to Arkansas and Monmouth. There’s no reason for the Bearcats to hang their heads over losing to Arkansas, the #12 ranked team in the country, on a neutral court. The loss to Monmouth was a little more embarrassing, though it came by only two points and Monmouth has the best ATS record in the country right now. But what matters most to fans of Cincy basketball is their recent futility against Xavier. They’ve lost seven of the last ten matchups and are 0-5 ATS here at Xavier. The Musketeers bring an 8-1 SU record into Saturday. Their only loss was to undefeated Iowa State. Expect bad blood and lots of scoring Saturday night. Xavier just went for 96 points in its last game, a total beatdown of Ball State. The Over is 4-0 the previous four times the Musketeers have been off a win that was by more than 20 points. This total seems low for two teams that average more than 70 points/game. Part of that is the last six Cincinnati games have all stayed Under. But the last five all had totals higher than this one. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-10-21 | Red Wings v. Avalanche OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 108 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER We predicted that the Red Wings wouldn’t fare well last night in St. Louis and sure enough they lost 6-2. We don’t like their chances tonight in Colorado either. Now we can’t possibly justify taking the Avalanche on the money line here, but fortunately there’s the total. With the likelihood of the Red Wings again giving up lots of goals, Over has to be the play here. The Avs are averaging 4.3 goals/game. That’s the highest average in the league. Furthermore, the average jumps to 4.7 goals/game when the Avs are home and they also are coming off a pair of road wins where they scored seven times in both games. There have been seven times in the last ten games where Colorado scored five or more goals. They can send this one Over pretty much by themselves. Detroit will probably add a goal (or two) as well. The Red Wings last four games have all gone Over the total and they are 5-0 Over this season when playing on back to back nights. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-09-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies UNDER 224.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER With scoring down this season in the NBA, this total sticks out as being pretty “high.” Memphis is missing its top scorer Ja Morant, so we’ve got every reason to expect they won’t be scoring a ton of points tonight. Yes, they had a 152 point outburst against Oklahoma City without Morant. But looking at the last five games, the Grizzlies have been held below 100 points three times and - other than the OKC game - have never scored more than 105. Defensively, things have been solid. Over those same last five games, the Grizzlies are allowing an average of just 90.8 points with Dallas’ 104 last night being the most given up. This will be the first time that Memphis has had to play a back to back since Morant got injured. The Lakers haven’t had much problem scoring as of late with five straight games of 50% shooting or better. But against the defensive-minded Grizzlies, that streak is likely to end tonight. Three of the Lakers’ previous five games came against either Detroit or Sacramento and only one was on the road. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-08-21 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 217 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It feels like 2014-19 all over again as Golden State is leaving no doubt as to who the best team in the league is. Fresh off a 126-95 thrashing of Orlando, the Warriors are 20-4 on the year. That’s tied with Phoenix for the best record in the league, but the Warriors just recently ended the Suns’ 18-game win streak. Steph Curry is now just 16 three-points away from breaking Ray Allen’s record for most in NBA history. Curry has expressed a desire to break the record TONIGHT. Not sure if that’s possible (no one has ever made 16 threes in one game), but Curry did hit seven on his way to 31 points against the Magic. Golden State is third in the league, scoring 113.6 points/game. Their scoring average bumps up to 116.8 in home games. Tonight they host a Portland team still playing without Damian Lillard. Now 1-6 in their last seven games, the Blazers are clearly struggling without Lillard. But we expect them to put up a decent number of points in this game. They’ll have to because they are one of the league’s worst defensive teams, giving up 116.8 points/game on the road. The Over is 25-12 in the past 37 meetings between these two teams. There were 221 total points scored in the first meeting this season. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-08-21 | Bruins v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Vancouver just made sweeping changes throughout the organization, firing their coach, GM and several assistants. In their first game under new coach Bruce Boudreau, the Canucks responded by posting their first shutout of the season, beating the Kings 4-0. Don’t go expecting a second straight shutout though. Wednesday’s opponent has gone Under in each of its last four games, but the Canucks are 3-1 Over the last three seasons immediately following a shutout win. Boston is the team that pays a visit tonight. They are starting a three-game trek through Western Canada at a most inopportune time as multiple players are out due to non-COVID related illnesses. But those absences are somewhat offset by top-line forward Brad Marchand returning to the lineup tonight. The Bruins are 3-0 Over this season when playing with three or more days of rest. Five of Vancouver’s last seven games have ended with the winning team scoring four or more goals. The Over is 7-3 the last 10 times these teams have faced off. Play on the OVER AAA |
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12-06-21 | Avalanche v. Flyers OVER 6 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Avalanche, who were a preseason favorite to win the Stanley Cup, have stumbled a bit to start the season. Their 26 points has them tied for fifth in the Central Division. However, we will point out two things. One is that they’ve played three fewer games than every team in the division besides Dallas. Two is that a +14 goal differential is top eight in the NHL. So there’s probably nothing to worry about in Colorado, especially since the Avs recently went on a six-game win streak. But there is plenty to worry about in Philadelphia where the Flyers have lost eight in a row to fall back into second to last place in the Metropolitan. The Flyers were beaten 7-1 last night by the Lightning in a dreadful defensive effort. Now, with Colorado having allowed a total of 14 goals in its two losses, they too have little to brag about at the defensive end. The Avalanche gave up eight goals in a loss to the Maple Leafs and six goals in Saturday’s OT loss to the Senators. What you should expect from this matchup on Monday night is plenty of goals. If there’s one positive thing we can say about the Flyers right now, it’s that their power play numbers are due to improve. They’ve scored just three times in their last 40 chances with the man advantage. That seems a little ridiculous to us. Play the OVER AAA |
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12-06-21 | Illinois v. Iowa OVER 151.5 | Top | 87-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is the second tough game in a row for Iowa as they begin the Big 10 portion of the schedule. They lost to Purdue, who is perhaps the best team in the country right now, 77-70 on Friday. But the Hawkeyes managed to keep it close despite not having leading scorer Keegan Murray (24.6 points/game), who sat because of a bad ankle. Murray, the nation’s second leading scorer, is expected to be back in the lineup tonight as the Hawkeyes host Illinois. Having Murray back and getting this game in Iowa City should result in Iowa scoring at a rate similar to what we saw from them in their first six games of the season. Even after facing Virginia and Purdue on the road, the Hawkeyes are still averaging 91.0 points/game. That’s third most in the country. At home, they average 97.2 points/game! We can’t say they’ll score that many tonight, but they will score enough to get this one Over the total. Defensively, the Hawkeyes aren’t great, which is a problem facing Illinois when Kofi Cockburn is in the lineup. Cockburn is right behind Murray, averaging 24.0 point/game. He’s missed some games, but the Fighting Illini still are averaging 76.7 points/game and have topped that number in each of their last three games, scoring 94, 82 and 86. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs OVER 47 | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -108 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Flexed into the Sunday night position, the Chiefs host the Broncos this week. Kansas City is coming off a bye. Coach Andy Reid is usually deadly in this situation, going 14-8 ATS, but that includes 1-3 the last four years. The Chiefs were playing well going into the bye, winning four straight with the defense surprisingly leading the way by allowing just 11.75 points/game. They are facing a Denver team that has seen the Under hit in 9 of 11 games this year. The O/U has come down for this game, but we’re going with the Over as KC scored 41 in its last appearance on “Sunday Night Football.” Denver put up 28 last week in a surprising win over the Chargers. That win puts the Broncos one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and tied with the Chargers and Raiders. It was the second time in three weeks that Denver scored 28 or more. While it looks like most are expecting a relatively low-scoring affair, we’re going the other way. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-05-21 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 46 | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER The 49ers have not only won three straight, but also four of five SU and ATS. In Week 12, they held off the Vikings for a 34-26 win and covered the four-point spot. This run has gotten the Niners back into playoff contention as they are now 6-5 on the season. The Seahawks are headed in the opposite direction. Monday’s 17-15 loss in Washington was Seattle’s third straight setback, leaving them at 3-8 overall. The Under has hit in five straight Seahawks’ games and we think it will be six straight after this NFC West clash. Since Russell Wilson returned, the Seattle offense has scored a total of 26 points in three losses. They had only 10 first downs and five straight three-and-outs on MNF. But the defense hasn’t been all that bad, giving up an average of only 15.4 points during the five-game Under run. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in three straight games, but the Seahawks haven’t allowed that many since Week 3. The Under is 6-0 in Seattle’s last six conference games and 13-2 in Wilson’s previous 15 starts. When these teams played in Week 4, it was a 28-13 game (Seattle’s favor) until a late TD + 2 pt conversion from the Niners. This game should see SF control the clock by running the ball, leading to fewer possessions (for both teams). The Niners will be without WR Samuel. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals OVER 49 | Top | 41-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Two teams in the AFC playoff hunt will meet in Cincinnati this Sunday as the Bengals host the Chargers. Cincy is now 7-4 after blowing out Pittsburgh 41-10 last week. That was right here at home and came on the heels of a 32-13 road win in Vegas. So the Bengals definitely seem to be humming again after head-scratching losses to the Jets and Browns. The Bengals’ last five games have averaged a total of 55.2 points with all but one clearing 50. So that’s why we’ve got a high total here. Another reason is what the Chargers are capable of doing offensively. Two weeks ago, they put over 500 yards of offense in a 41-37 win over the Steelers. Things weren’t as good last week when the Lightning Bolts lost 28-13 at Denver. But that was only the third game all season that LA did not score 20 or more points. In fact, since Week 3, the Chargers have scored 24 or more points in all but two games. Look for Justin Herbert to have a bounce back game on Sunday and the Bengals will put up their usual number of points as well. The Chargers’ defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, has given up an average of 31.3 points the seven games (2nd most in the league during that span) with all seven opponents scoring at least 24. Cincinnati is averaging the second most points in the league (31.3/game) since Week 6. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-04-21 | Celtics v. Blazers UNDER 216.5 | Top | 145-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Portland is a lot better at home (where they are 10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) than they are on the road (where they are 1-10 both SU and ATS). But, as we found out on Thursday, it doesn’t matter where they play if they don’t have Damian Lillard. The All-Star is injured right now and the Blazers lost their last game 114-83 to the Spurs. The team shot just 35.4% without Lillard and no player had more than 16 points. Despite not playing on Friday, there was news coming out of Portland as a shakeup has taken place in the front office due to some irresponsible conduct. But the Blazers may be catching a break here as Boston is off a loss in Utah last night. The C’s scored 130 points, getting 37 from Jayson Tatum, but it still wasn’t enough to defeat one of the league’s top teams. Boston probably won’t shoot 51.2% from the floor again tonight, nor will they allow 55% shooting (including 52% from three) like they did to the Jazz. The last time we went with an Under on a Celtics game was earlier in the week against Philadelphia and that ended up being an 88-87 final. Just to review, you’ve got one team missing its best player and the other playing without rest. The Celtics have a 6-1 Under record this year when facing teams with a losing record. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-03-21 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 160.5 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It’s a battle of 7-0 teams in the Big 10 Friday. Iowa and Purdue both handled their business in the Big 10/ACC Championship Game earlier this week. Iowa beat Virginia 75-74 while Purdue crushed Florida State 93-65. What may make this a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes is they are just 98th in defensive efficiency. Purdue, who is the home team here, ranks 1st in the country in offensive efficiency. But not far behind them is tonight’s visitor, who is 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency (a measure of how many points a team scores per possession). So expect this to be a high-scoring affair Friday night in West Lafayette. The 75 points that Iowa scored in the last game was a season-low, if you can believe it. With the team they beat (Virginia) playing at the slowest tempo in the country, it makes sense that the Hawkeyes scored a season-low. But they average 94.0 points/game and Purdue plays at a much more reasonable tempo. The Boilermakers also average 92.4 points/game. The oddsmakers can’t make this total high enough, in our eyes. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA OVER 72.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 49 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The first Conference Championship Game of Week 14 goes down in Conference USA where UTSA will host Western Kentucky. UTSA just had its unbeaten season ruined last week by North Texas in a 45-23 loss. But the Roadrunners’ spot in this game was already secure and a Conference USA title would be a big deal for this relatively “unknown” program. They’ll face a Western Kentucky that is on runs of 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in their last five games. But they did lose 52-46 as three-point home favorites to UTSA back on October 9th. We are anticipating another shootout this Friday night. The fact that the teams already combined for 98 points and 1234 yards of total offense is a nice start. Consider that in the first meeting these teams combined for eight TD drives of 75 or more yards and none went longer than 5:08. WKU averages 43.3 points/game. They’ve scored 52 and 53 points the last two weeks. UTSA averages 36.9 points/game. Them giving up 45 last week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the defense. The Over is 11-4 in the Hilltoppers’ previous 15 games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints OVER 47.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -101 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Dallas was tremendous over the first two months of the season, going 6-1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread. But they definitely gave some back in November, going 1-3 SU and ATS. The Cowboys were losers on Thanksgiving Day, falling 36-33 in overtime to the Raiders. Now they’’ turn around and face another Thanksgiving Day loser, the Saints, in another Thursday game. New Orleans got blasted by Buffalo 31-6 as a seven-point home underdog last week. It was their fourth consecutive loss. Before this current losing streak, you would have had to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time any Saints team lost three in a row. With both teams struggling, we’re not interested in playing either side here. Instead, the Over looks to be where the value is at. The Dallas defense gave up over 500 yards last week, including 366 through the air. Per sources, New Orleans is making a change at QB to Taysom Hill. We like the move. But what Hill can’t fix is a Saints defense that’s allowed 71 points the last two games and an average of 29.6 its last five. The Cowboys offense is likely to see WR CeeDee Lamb return. The impact of not having coach Mike McCarthy on the sidelines should be minimal for the road team. McCarthy is generally regarded as a bottom tier coach. The Over has hit in the Cowboys' last four Thursday games. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-02-21 | Blackhawks v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Whether they win or lose, the Capitals’ last five games have all been pretty high-scoring. The Over is a perfect 5-0 and the average number of combined goals scored is 7.6. But tonight the Caps face a low scoring Chicago team, whose 45 goals are the third fewest in the league. Only the struggling Islanders and awful Coyotes have scored fewer times this season. Following a change behind the bench, the Blackhawks did have a brief surge for interim coach Derek King, winning four in a row in early November. But, predictably, they’ve since come back down to Earth and that includes scoring two or fewer goals in four of the last five games. On Sunday, the Blackhawks were shutout 2-0 by San Jose. Washington’s last game was a lot wilder than Chicago’s as the Capitals blew a 4-1 third period lead in the third period and lost 5-4 to Florida. They allowed 51 shots for the game, including 27 in the crucial third period. We don’t see anything like that happening to the Capitals tonight. Sunday may have been just the second shutout loss for the Blackhawks this season, but there have been only five games where they’ve scored more than twice in regulation and the power play is 0 for its last 13. Washington knows it won’t need many goals to win here, so expect a rather low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-01-21 | 76ers v. Celtics UNDER 210.5 | Top | 87-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Sixers and Celtics are two of the five teams in the Eastern Conference that are currently tied with an 11-10 record. Neither is happy with that record, but they each head into Wednesday night’s matchup on NBA TV fresh off a win. Philadelphia held off Orlando on Monday, winning 101-96 but did not cover the 14-point spread. “It was a win, not inspired,” said coach Doc Rivers. The Sixers are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, Boston beat Toronto 109-97 as a two-point favorite on Sunday. Both teams should be at full strength tonight. What we are looking for is the Under to hit. Philadelphia has averaged just 104.9 points over its previous 10 games, on 43.2% shooting. Against division opponents, they are 0-4 and averaging 103.2 points/game. Boston is averaging only 104.0 points its last five games, but the good news is they are allowing just 102.2. Throw in the fact that both teams are in the bottom 10 in pace of play and you should have a game that fails to reach the oddsmakers’ total. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-30-21 | Florida State v. Purdue UNDER 143.5 | Top | 65-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Big Ten drew first blood last night against the ACC, taking both games in this annual “Challenge.” The event really kicks into “high gear” on Tuesday with six games, including one featuring the Big Ten’s “best,” that being #2 ranked Purdue. The Boilermakers are 6-0 and host a Florida State team that is 5-1 with a couple of close wins. One of those close wins took place last Wednesday when the Seminoles needed overtime to scrape by Boston U 81-80 as 17.5 point favorites. Purdue has covered the number four straight times, including neutral court wins over North Carolina and Villanova. So this looks to be a challenge for FSU. We don’t like the idea of laying points though. What we do like is the Under. Florida State is going to be without three players, two of them starters - PG Evans and C Ngom. The Boilermakers are holding opponents to 56.5 points on 34.3% shooting here in West Lafayette. But the Seminoles also are holding teams to 38.5% shooting and 63 points/game. That last score (the one vs. Boston U) is misleading because the game went into OT. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-30-21 | Red Wings v. Bruins OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Not many would have expected Detroit to be ahead of Boston in the Atlantic Division heading into the final day of November. But here we are and that is the case. Now it’s just a one-point edge that the Red Wings currently enjoy over the Bruins and their goal differential is much worse. Boston is a heavy favorite to win tonight for many reasons. First and foremost, they are the home team. The Wings are just 3-7-1 on the road where they are giving up four goals per game. The money line is too high to play here, but we will take advantage of the leaky Detroit defense to play the Over. When these teams met earlier this month, it was a 5-1 Bruins win here in Boston. The Red Wings have given up multiple goals in 19 straight games and five or more seven times this season. So look for Boston to basically send this one Over almost by itself. They should give up a goal or two as well though, considering they’ve allowed 12 in the last four games and Detroit has scored seven times in its last two games. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-29-21 | Hornets v. Bulls OVER 225.5 | Top | 119-133 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Two of the East’s top six teams face off on Monday with the Bulls hosting the Hornets. Despite losing three of their last four games, the Bulls are off to one of their best starts in years. The Hornets have won 8 of their last 10 games. But they too are coming off a loss here and it was in overtime to the lowly Rockets. The final score was 146-143. That came on the heels of Charlotte scoring 133 in a win over Minnesota the previous game. The Hornets are last in the East in scoring defense, giving up 114.6 points/game. You can now probably guess how we’re looking to play tonight’s matchup. Charlotte leads the league in three-point shooting at 37.7%. They were 20 for 50 against Houston and that includes them missing all seven attempts in overtime. Chicago has yet to go Over in consecutive games this season, but look for that to change tonight. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos OVER 47 | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The Chargers scored 41 points and gained over 500 yards last week. It came down to the final minute, as all Chargers’ games seem to do, but they were a 41-37 winner over Pittsburgh. This just in: QB Justin Herbert is very good. Denver’s defense isn’t as good as you think, which was evident two weeks ago when they gave up 30 points to the Eagles. Meanwhile, look for the Broncos’ offense to move the ball via the running game. The Chargers are last in the league at stopping the run. Denver has two good backs - Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams - who have combined for 4.7 yards per rush and 1,333 scrimmage yards. Each of the Chargers’ last six opponents have scored at least 24 points. Look for this to turn into a pretty high-scoring affair. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-27-21 | Hawaii v. Wyoming OVER 48 | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Hawaii goes for its sixth win Saturday when it pays a visit to the mainland to take on 6-5 Wyoming. These are two teams that put over more than 40 points last week. Hawaii won a wild, 50-45 shootout over Colorado State out in Honolulu. Wyoming went to Utah State and won 44-17. The home team should not have much trouble scoring points in this game. Hawaii is giving up 37 points/game on the road. Wyoming ran for 362 yards last week. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, moving the ball won’t be an issue. Hawaii’s defense gave up 651 yards to Colorado State.The Over has hit in three of Wyoming’s previous four games. This is a low total for Hawaii, who has had several games with an O/U line of more than 60 points.Their games have averaged 60.8 points this season. The offense had 535 yards last week. The number is just too low here. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-26-21 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 224 | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER After experiencing subpar results each of the last two seasons, the Warriors are back on top of the NBA with a 16-2 record. They are outscoring teams by 13.5 points/game. Both the record and point differential are league bests. The team has won five in a row coming into Friday, also covering the spread in all five wins. Tonight, the Warriors host a Portland team that is off a four-point loss at Sacramento. That dropped the Blazers to 1-8 SU/ATS on the road this year. Prior to losing to the Kings, the Blazers had won four in a row (also 4-0 ATS), but all of those victories did come at home. What we are looking for here is a high-scoring affair as Portland isn’t any good defensively when they’re on the road and Golden State is quite prolific at scoring when they’re at home. It’s easy to understand why the Blazers are struggling so mightily on the road as they give up 115.3 points/game. Golden State averages 116.6 at home. Assuming the Warriors can hit that average, the Over looks like a lock with Portland coming in averaging 110 points/game. The Over is 5-0-1 in the Blazers' last six. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-25-21 | Raiders v. Cowboys OVER 50.5 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 46 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Both the Raiders and Cowboys are reeling coming into Thanksgiving Day. The Raiders lost their third straight game on Sunday and are now just 5-5 SU. They’ve scored just 43 points during this losing skid. The last two losses have been blowouts: 41-14 to the Chiefs and 32-13 in Cincinnati. Both of those were home games. The Raiders now leave Sin City to take on a Dallas team that put up a season-low nine points against the Chiefs on Sunday. However, the Cowboys are in a lot better shape than the Raiders are. Dallas still leads the NFC East with a 7-3 record. Considering they average the third most points/game in the NFL (29.3), we’re willing to “write off” what happened in the last game. The last time the Cowboys played at home, they put up 43 points. That was the third time this year they scored 40 or more at home. The Raiders’ defense isn’t good, so we’re expecting another strong effort from Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. But look for Derek Carr and Las Vegas to put up some points as well. They substantially outgained the Bengals offense on a per play basis. Not only is the Over 11-4-1 in the Raiders’ last 16 games as an underdog, but it is 7-2 the last nine times following a straight-up loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-25-21 | Bears v. Lions UNDER 42 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 42 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER So we do not yet know who will be playing QB for the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Does that matter though? The team has yet to win a game and will be going with either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. Boyle made his first NFL start last week in a 13-10 loss to the Browns. He threw for 77 yards and had two interceptions. Goff’s last eight starts haven’t been much better. One would have to go back to Week 1 to find the last time that the Lions scored more than 19 points. They are 30th in the league in scoring. Right ahead of them, in 29th, is this year’s Thanksgiving Day opponent. Chicago averages just 16.3 points/game. They will reportedly be starting Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton replaced an injured Justin Fields on Sunday and the Bears wound up with only 13 points and lost to the Ravens. It was the seventh game this year that the Bears scored 20 points or less. There are rumors that head coach Matt Nagy might be fired after this game. That’s inspiring! So let’s summarize. Chicago is starting Andy Dalton with a potentially lame-duck head coach. They are facing a winless team starting either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. We will take the Under. Play on UNDER AAA |