Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-13-20 | Colts v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | Top | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Indianapolis should put up a lot of points here against a Raiders defense that has allowed 35, 43 and 28 points the last three weeks. While the 28 points allowed last week were the fewest of the three games, Las Vegas was facing the winless Jets and nearly lost that game. The Colts have scored at least 26 points in four straight games and Baltimore is the only team to hold them below that number in the last seven games. The good news for Las Vegas is they’ve scored 31 or more in four of their last five games. So this should turn into a shootout Sunday in Sin City. The Colts defense had been really strong in the early part of the season, but injuries have started to take their toll. The last three games have seen them allow an average of 32 points. The Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ games this season, the second highest such percentage in the league. So high-scoring games are nothing new to them. Same with the Colts, who are 6-2 Over their last eight games. Both teams could easily go for 30+ here. The Raiders are on a 6-0-1 Over run as home dogs. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-11-20 | UTEP v. North Texas UNDER 63 | Top | 43-45 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER While North Texas is technically the “road team” for this game, it is being played at Apogee Stadium in Denton, which is their home. This matchup was originally going to take place on October 31st in El Paso before having to be rescheduled. North Texas has been fortunate in that this is the seventh time in nine games they’ve gotten to play at home. But they haven’t taken advantage, going just 2-4 in Denton. It’s been a rough last two weeks for the Mean Green as they’ve scored just 48 total points while giving up 40+ in a pair of losses. But we look for the defense to get a reprieve this week against a rusty UTEP offense that has not taken the field in four weeks. It’s not as if the Miners were doing much offensively before COVID wreaked havoc on their schedule. They come in averaging only 20.1 points/game. The UTEP defense has done a pretty good job at stopping the run though and that is critical when facing this North Texas offense. We see this ending up as a surprisingly low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-08-20 | Cal-Irvine v. USC OVER 135.5 | Top | 56-91 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER USC looks to rebound from its first loss of the season here, hosting UC Irvine. The Trojans fell 61-58 to UConn last Thursday, shooting only 35.8% in the process. That wasn’t just a season-low in FG%, it was also the 1st time the Trojans were held below 50% overall shooting in a game this year. Their defense has been dominant in holding three straight opponents below 35% shooting. But it’s hard to keep doing that. UC Irvine is off a win where it scored over 100 points, though the opponent (La Sierra?) had a lot to do with that. Still we expect the Anteaters to score more than they’re expected to tonight. The problem will be that they’ve allowed over 80 PPG to Division I opponents thus far and Southern Cal figures to have a big bounce back game at the offensive end. The Over is 4-0 in UC Irvine’s last four road games and 5-1 their last six as an underdog. Play OVER AAA |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys v. Ravens OVER 45 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Lamar Jackson is off the COVID-19 list, which means we can just assume he’s going to start tonight for the Ravens. That’s bad news for a Cowboys defense that’s already giving up 32.6 points/game, which is the most in the league this season. Particularly concerning for the Cowboys is a run defense which is last in the league, allowing 156.4 yards per game. Baltimore will get both Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins back this week after both missed last week’s loss in Pittsburgh. As a team, the Ravens have run for 100+ yards in 34 consecutive games. So they’re going to move the ball in this game. Last time we saw Dallas they allowed 41 against Washington on Thanksgiving Day. That horrid effort dropped them to 3-8 on the year. With Andy Dalton as the starting QB, you may not be expecting much from the Cowboys offense tonight. But they did put up 31 on the Vikings two weeks ago. Scoring only 16 against an excellent Washington defense (did you see last night?) should not be viewed as a big deal. The Ravens defense has given up at least 28 points in three of their last six games. The Over is 4-1 the last five times Baltimore has been off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-08-20 | Juventus v. Barcelona FC OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 7* on the OVER As was expected, Barcelona and Juventus have dominated Group G of the Champions League. Both have already booked their spot in the knockout stage with Barca a perfect 5-0 and Juventus 4-0-1. It would take one heck of a performance by “The Old Lady” (Juventus) on Tuesday to wrest away the top spot in the Group. This is because Barca has an aggregate score of 16-2 in winning their first five five fixtures. Juventus’ goal differential is only +7. Of course, the best way to rectify that discrepancy is to score plenty of goals here. Problem is that Barca has not lost in the Group Stage of the UCL since 2016-17, a span of 25 matches. They are also unbeaten in 38 straight matches at home in European competition. They won the reverse fixture 2-0 back on October 28th. But if anyone can run up a big score here, it would be Juventus, who put the ball in the back of the net three times in their last UCL fixture. There’s the issue of Barca’s La Liga inconsistency creeping in here. Both managers are expected to select strong lineups. We’re on the Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers OVER 47 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Because of Covid, the 49ers have lost their home field advantage. This game is being played in Arizona (Cardinals stadium) as will next week’s “home game” vs. Washington. That’s a pretty significant disadvantage for the stretch run, although the Niners did just go on the road and beat a very good Rams team last week. Buffalo has already played once here in Arizona and that’s a game they’d like to forget as they lost on the infamous “Hail Murray.” If you recall, that was a high scoring game (32-30) as are most Bills games with the average number of total points scored being 52.8. That’s noticeably higher than the total set for tonight. The 49ers average 27.2 points/game at home, which is up from what they are averaging on the road. A key for them last week was that WR Deebo Samuel, who leads the league in yards after catch, returned to the lineup. The Over is 7-3-1 for the Bills this season including 7-0-1 when they are off a win. (They put up 27 in beating the Chargers last Sunday). Play on OVER AAA |
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12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals OVER 48.5 | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Even with Kyler Murray nursing a shoulder injury, we think there’s going to be plenty of offense in this game -- from both sides. The good news for Murray and the Cardinals is that this game is at home. The Rams defense just hasn’t been as good on the road as it's been at home. They give up 23.3 points/game on the road compared to just 15.0 in Los Angeles. Arizona is one of the best rushing teams as they lead the league in yards per attempt and are 4th overall in rushing yards. They and the Rams both run up-tempo offense, which is conducive to the game going Over. All five times that Arizona has covered as a home dog for Kingsbury, the game has gone Over. (We like the Cardinals to cover this week). The Rams may have the highest Under percentage in the league this season (tied with Chicago at 8-2) but something to keep in mind is the Under is 5-0 when they’re at home. Again, this game is being played in Arizona, not LA. Play on OVER AAA |
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12-05-20 | Colorado v. Arizona UNDER 58 | Top | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Colorado and Arizona have gotten off to very different starts. Colorado is 3-0 and they look to keep rolling here against an 0-3 Arizona team that will be an underdog for the 19th time in 23 games under Kevin Sumlin against Power 5 competition. ‘Zona hasn’t fared too well as a dog, going just 4-15 straight up. They’ve lost a school-record 10 in a row, dating back to last season. They haven’t covered either of the last two weeks, losing by 17 points both times. Colorado is 3-0 ATS as well as SU, so it’s not a surprise that the line has moved in their direction all week long. But we’re not about to lay this many with a team that has won by only 10, 3 and 6 points. Two of those games, the Buffaloes were the underdog. Neither of these offenses are all that explosive as the Buffs have just one play of 40+ yards while the Wildcats have just one play of 34+ yards. Colorado’s offense is excellent at dominating the time of possession, but it’s red zone efficiency (13 for 13 with 11 touchdowns) isn’t likely to be maintained moving forward. That has us on the Under this week. Both teams have seen their point totals decrease every game. Arizona has an injury at QB. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State OVER 53 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER The Sun Belt is really strong at the top this year. The conference currently boasts two Top 25 teams and neither is Appalachian State, who has been the standard-bearer the last couple seasons. It should be a good one Friday night in Boone, NC as App State hosts #25 Louisiana, who will be playing in the Conference Championship Game on December 19th against a Coastal Carolina team that might still be undefeated. It’ll be the third straight year for Louisiana in that game. They’ve never won it, nor have they ever defeated Appalachian State (0-8) since they became conference rivals. It won’t be easy this time either though they do average 35.0 points/game after scoring 70 last week. On the flip side, look for Appalachian State to move the ball in this game via the run. The Mountaineers are averaging 256 rushing yards per game. That’s a problem for a Louisiana defense that is allowing 170 rushing yards per game. The Ragin Cajuns have already permitted 16 rushing touchdowns and when they faced Coastal Carolina earlier in the year, they allowed 200+ yards on the ground and a pair of touchdowns. Two offenses averaging more than 30 points/game merit a total higher than this. Play on the OVER AAA |
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12-02-20 | Texas-Arlington v. Arkansas UNDER 148.5 | Top | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Arkansas will look to make it 3 for 3 to open the year when they host UT Arlington Wednesday night. The Razorbacks opened the season by winning by 80 (!) against Miss Valley State and then by 15 against North Texas. UT Arlington is unbeaten against the spread (3-0), but just 1-2 straight up as they suffered close losses to Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech before beating Northwestern State on Saturday. The fact that Arkansas has scored 142 points in a game is something that caused the oddsmakers to pay attention. So expect high totals the next few games. But the offense quickly came back down to Earth against North Texas, scoring “only” 69 points. They also did a really solid job defensively in that game. Giving up an average of less than 60 points on 33% shooting is something we like to see. UT Arlington has gone Under eight straight times as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. They are shooting only 29% from three so far. Arkansas is 11-3 Under as a home favorite of more than 12 points. Number is too high here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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12-01-20 | Michigan State v. Duke OVER 152 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER We get a Top 10 battle Tuesday night with Duke hosting Michigan State. The Blue Devils have definitely had the Spartans number through the years, winning eight of the nine head to head meetings. Both teams struggled to hold onto big leads in their last game and turnovers have been an ongoing issue as well. We expect this to turn into a bit of a shootout. Duke let Coppin State make 10 three-pointers on Saturday. Michigan State obviously possesses a much better shot-making ability than Coppin State. They’ve scored 80 in both games with the Over being 2-0. Duke is no slouch offensively either as Coach K’s charges made 53.1% of its shots in the first game. When these teams played last year, it was all Blue Devils in an 87-75 win that easily surpassed the 142.5 point O/U line. Lots of different names this go around, especially on the Duke side, but the firepower is still there. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-29-20 | Titans v. Colts OVER 51.5 | Top | 45-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER The Titans and Colts meet for a second time in three weeks. Last time, on a Thursday night in Nashville, the Colts. They shut Tennessee out in the second half, which is quite the achievement, and the game really turned on a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown. While the Colts probably can’t count on scoring another special teams touchdown this week, they also probably can’t count on shutting the Titans out for a half. That has us on the Over. The good news for the Colts is that they have scored 31 or more in four of the last five games. Tennessee always scores a lot with Ryan Tannehill manning the offensive ship. The 17 points against the Colts were a season-low for the Titans. They average 27.9 points/game for the year. Then there’s this gem: Tannehill is 17-3 Over his last 20 starts including 8-2 this season. The Colts defensive line, which has been such a strength this season, is depleted due to COVID. So Derrick Henry should have a big game as he wears the defense down late (as per usual). Play on OVER AAA |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER We also like the Under in this game. Go to the writeup on the side and see all the reasons we cited why we don’t think the Bengals will score much here. Cliff notes: Joe Burrow is out for the season and the two top running backs are injured. (Gio Bernard MAY play after suffering a concussion last week). The Bengals have scored a total of 19 points the last two weeks and didn’t score any after Burrow left the game last week. The Giants defense has been pretty good over the last month, never giving up more than 25 points. They’ve allowed 20 or less four of the last seven games and this is the weakest offense they’ll face all year. However, with the Giants scoring between 20 and 27 each of their last five games, we shouldn’t expect them to “go off” either. They’ve topped 23 in just two of the last seven games. This will be a low-scoring game and a blowout win for the Giants. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-28-20 | Nevada v. Hawaii OVER 60 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Nevada is 5-0 and leading the Mountain West Conference. By the time this game kicks Saturday night, either San Jose State or Boise State (both 4-0) will be tied with them for first place. The Wolf Pack look to stay in front when they make a trip out to Honolulu to face 2-3 Hawaii, who just faced Boise State. A 40-32 loss to the Broncos was the second time in three weeks that a Hawaii game had 72 total points scored. It was also the fourth straight game where the Warriors gave up more than 30 points. They are giving up 36.5 per game at home. Nevada is scoring 32.2 so they should definitely do their part in getting this one to the total. QB Carson Strong has thrown for 340+ yards in four of the five games. So this Over boils down to the Hawaii offense. Nevada has not faced many good offenses thus far. Hawaii has topped 30 three of its five games with the two exceptions being against two good defensive teams (San Diego State, Wyoming). Two home games have seen the Warriors score 71 points so far. Both teams likely hit 30 here. The Over is 21-8 the last 29 instances of Hawaii being a home dog and its 6-0 when they are off a straight up loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-28-20 | South Alabama v. Arkansas State UNDER 64 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the UNDER This is just too high of a total when one of the teams has gone Under in six straight and only averages 20.1 points/game. The team in question is South Alabama, who is 3-6 and just dropped its 4th straight last week, 31-14 to Georgia State. The Jaguars haven’t topped 17 points in any of those last four contests. Now this week’s opponent - Arkansas State - is very much a “bird of a different feather.” They are scoring 31.4 points while giving up 39.6. There have been three games this year where the Red Wolves have scored 45 or more. One of those was last week. But last week was also the fourth game where they gave up at least 45 and they lost 47-45 to Texas State. Something is going to have to give this week in the Sun Belt. Before last week’s 47-45 loss, ASU’s last games saw 47, 48 and 62 combined points scored. They scored just 20, 10 and 17. By the way, Arkansas State is also 3-6 and on a four-game losing streak. So while we’re tempted to simply say this winds up being more of a “South Alabama” game, it’s really more indicative of where both teams are at. Can’t see both getting to 30 or one getting to 40. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-27-20 | Oregon v. Oregon State OVER 64 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 52 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oregon is undefeated heading into “The Civil War.” In a normal year, that would be quite the achievement. But in 2020, it means that the Ducks are “only” 3-0. They underperformed last weekend in a game they were favored to win by 18.5 points. They beat UCLA by just three points (38-35) and needed to force four turnovers to do so. Turnovers have been an issue for the Ducks as well as they’ve given it away six times in three games. Yet they are still averaging 38.7 points/game. They failed to run the ball effectively last week (just 88 yards on 34 attempts), but that should change this week in a game where they are basically a two touchdown favorite on the road. Oregon State has twice given up more than 200 yards rushing this year. They didn’t last week and won for the first time, beating Cal 31-27. The Beavers offense has been pretty consistent thus far, averaging 26.7 points and they’ve been between 21 and 31 in all three games. Along with what Oregon figures to score on Friday, that should be enough to propel this one Over the total. The Over is 13-4-1 the past 18 meetings and 4-0 the last four times Oregon has been a road favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys OVER 45.5 | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Washington and Dallas played five weeks ago and the Football Team emerged victorious by a score of 25-3. That may have been the low point of the season for the Cowboys. Backup Andy Dalton left the game with a concussion, rendering the offense helpless. But Dalton was back last week and led the team to a surprising 31-28 upset of the Vikings. A good sign moving forward is that Ezekiel Elliott had his first 100+ yard rushing game of the season. Dallas definitely will score more their second time facing the Washington defense. But of course their own defense remains a problem. It is giving up 31.8 points/game and has surrendered no fewer than 23 for nine straight contests. Washington is off a 20-9 win over Cincinnati and has looked really good over the last six quarters with Alex Smith playing QB. However, there is one caveat we’ve got to mention in regards to last week. The defense got real lucky with Bengals rookie Joe Burrow getting hurt. In the first half, Washington's defense didn’t force a single punt. The Over is 8-2 in the L10 meetings between these teams and 5-0 here in Dallas. Even though this is a battle of 3-7 teams on Thanksgiving, first place in the NFC East is on the line. The game will belong to the two offenses. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-26-20 | Gonzaga v. Kansas OVER 149.5 | Top | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Gonzaga and Kansas would have been two of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament that was never played last March. The Zags were 31-2 and had already won the WCC Tournament when the season was paused. Kansas was 28-3 (Big 12 Tournament never played, on a 16-game win streak, and many thought they were the best team in the country. These two “blue-bloods” open the 2020-21 season against one another in Fort Myers. Gonzaga has won 30 or more games six of the last nine seasons including each of the last four. Some feel this is Mark Few’s best team ever. They are going to average a lot of points. Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard’s transfer was just granted (he can play immediately), so the roster is even more talented. Gonzaga averaged 87.4 points/game last season. Compared to last season, Kansas isn’t going to be as strong defensively as they were a year ago, due to a couple departures. The Jayhawks have gone Over five straight times as a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings UNDER 48 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The Cowboys are having a season to forget as they are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. For a while there, the Vikings seemed to be on a similar trajectory. But they have rallied for three consecutive wins and covers to get to 4-5 SU and 6-3 ATS. The most recent win came Monday night, 19-13 over the Bears. The next three weeks (including this one) have Minnesota playing at home and they figure to be a strong favorite in every game. But we would be wary of laying this many points with a team playing on a short week, especially considering Dallas is off its bye. The ‘Boys did show some life two weeks ago vs. Pittsburgh, but still scored only 19 points. That’s the most they’ve scored in the four games since Dak Prescott went down with an injury. All four of those games have gone Under. We don't think the return of Andy Dalton will matter much. We already mentioned that the Vikings are off a low-scoring game themselves. Mike Zimmer will probably play this one "close to the vest" as he isn’t likely to pull out many tricks. The Under is 10-4 in Dallas’ last 14 games as a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-22-20 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 49 | Top | 9-24 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER So the Saints are going with Taysom Hill here, not Jameis Winston, in place of the injured Drew Brees. That was a surprise to some, but we’re going to trust Sean Payton knows what he’s doing. The Saints should still be able to score plenty against a Falcons defense that is giving up 27.9 points/game and doesn’t really know what to expect from Hill. Remember that New Orleans started this season by going Over in every one of the first seven games. Atlanta can score too; they’ve averaged just over 30 points/game since Raheem Morris took over. The Saints strength on defense is stopping the run. The Falcons aren’t likely to run the ball very much here as Matt Ryan is going to test the Saints secondary. This is a game where the winning side is likely to score 30 and we think the loser will score enough to get it over the hump. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma OVER 59 | Top | 13-41 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Bedlam has seen Oklahoma go 11-4 ATS against Mike Gundy-led Oklahoma State teams. Most of those games have been high-scoring as well. Last year’s game, a 34-16 win by OU, was the fewest total points scored in Bedlam in a decade. This year both teams are ranked in the Top 18. Oklahoma, who suffered two early season losses, has now won four straight games. They are averaging 46.1 points/game for the season and hit 62 in the last two. Oklahoma State has only one loss, 41-34 to Texas, so a win here would really put them in the driver’s seat for the Big 12 Championship Game. But winning Saturday in Norman is going to require them to score a lot of points. Oklahoma’s defense has given up 37+ in three different games, so the Cowboys should score a lot. Whether it's enough for the outright win remains to be seen. But it will be enough to help send this game Over the total. The Over is already 15-5-1 in the Sooners previous 21 home games. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida OVER 64 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER #7 Cincinnati is undefeated (7-0) but about to embark on a three-game road trip. They better not take UCF too lightly this week. This will be the first time UCF is an underdog in a regular season game since 2017 (ends a 39-game streak). Though unranked, the Golden Knights are always a threat to put a ton of points on the board. They lead all of NCAAF in total offense with 619.1 yards/game. That’s close to an all-time single season record. UCF has averaged 44.3 points per gameduring their current three-game win streak. While Cincinnati’s defense is top 10 in yards allowed and top three in scoring, a big reason for that is they have not faced many good offenses. UCF will easily be the best offense they face all season. Lucky for Cincy then that they too are capable of putting up a ton of points. They put up 55 last week on East Carolina, which was the 4th straight game with 38 or more. We think both teams are going to hit 30 here, so that means a play on the Over, which is 4-1 the last five times that the Bearcats have been road favorites. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force UNDER 55.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Air Force hosts New Mexico Friday night with both teams still looking for their first conference win. Air Force has won a game in 2020 as they shockingly beat Navy 40-7 in the season opener (were +6.5). But that was on October 3rd and the Falcons are 0-2 since. After a three-week layoff, they lost 17-6 to San Jose State, then the following week brought a 49-30 loss to Boise State. They are off another three-week layoff here. New Mexico is 0-3 and lost 12 straight games going back to last season. They can’t even play in Albuquerque with COVID concerns forcing them to relocate their home games to Las Vegas. The Lobos lost their Sin City debut last week, 27-20 against Nevada, but did at least cover the spread for a second consecutive game. In addition to the COVID-19 issues both teams have had to deal with this season, New Mexico and Air Force also enter this Friday night game with injury concerns at QB. It’s not like we’d expect much from either offense anyway. The Over has hit in seven straight meetings between these two schools, but the Under is 4-0 in New Mexico’s last four Friday games. Air Force is also 6-1 Under its last seven times it has been the favorite. Under is the call here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan OVER 59.5 | Top | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER This game may very well end up deciding the MAC West. Both Western Michigan and Central Michigan are 2-0. After a 58-13 blowout win over Akron in the opener, Western Michigan pulled a rabbit out of the hat for us last week against Toledo. Central Michigan has also covered the spread in both of its wins, 30-27 over Ohio U (were underdogs) and 40-10 over Northern Illinois. Another constant for both teams is lots of scoring. Western Michigan has totaled 99 points in two games while Central Michigan has scored 70. The Western Michigan offense is averaging a stunning 8.0 yards/play, led by QB Kaleb Eleby, who is completing 71 percent of his passes. The Over is 5-0 in the Broncos previous 5 Wednesday games and 6-2-1 their last nine road games. The Over is also 6-1 in the Chippewas last 7 Wednesday games. Their offense has been no slouch either, averaging 5.7 yards per play. Here they go up against a defense that just gave up 500 yards last week. This should be a back and forth, high-scoring game. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears OVER 44.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -109 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It’s a low total this week on Monday Night Football, but that shouldn’t be a surprise with the Bears involved. They haven’t scored more than 23 points in a game since that improbable come from behind win over the Falcons back in Week 3. But in all fairness, they’ve been facing some strong defenses. Minnesota has allowed 20 or more in every game and 29.3 per game for the season. We don’t think the Bears will hit that latter number here, but they’ll certainly score enough to where this NFC North game goes Over the total. Then you’ve got a Minnesota offense that seems to have found its rhythm behind the running of Dalvin Cook. Cook has scored five touchdowns the past two games while running for 369 yards. The Vikings have scored at least 23 points in six straight games. Five of those games have gone Over. All six have seen at least 50 points scored. Something we found to be interesting is that all five NFC North games this season have seen the Over hit. Play on the OVER AAA |
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11-15-20 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 47.5 | Top | 10-36 | Loss | -109 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Pittsburgh is one of four teams that is 6-2 ATS, the best such record in the league. But Cincinnati happens to be one of the other three. Of course the Steelers’ 8-0 SU record is the envy of not just the 2-5-1 Bengals, but the rest of the league as well. On Saturday, Big Ben was activated from the COVID-19/reserve list and is expected to start Sunday. He should have plenty of time to throw against this Bengals defense that has generated only 11 sacks and recently traded Carlos Dunlap. On the other side, rookie Joe Burrow figures to be running for his life. The spread is larger than what we’d feel comfortable laying, but look for this AFC North game to go Over. Five of Cincy’s last seven, including three straight, have gone Over. The last three games have seen 58, 71 and 51 points scored. Pittsburgh averages 32.5 points/game at home. Last week’s poor effort (still a 24-19 win in Dallas) was their lowest scoring game to date. They are 16-6 Over L22 as a home favorite. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans OVER 48.5 | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER We expect a hot start from both offenses on Thursday when the Colts take on the Titans. Indianapolis actually dominated the first half against Baltimore last week, owning a huge edge in total yards. They didn’t make the most of it though and ended up losing the game 24-10. They are still scoring an average of 26.0 points as last week was their lowest scoring effort of 2020. Tennessee didn’t have its best offensive showing last week either. They were held to a season-low in yardage (224). It was actually the defense that led the way in a 24-17 win over Chicago. But be careful about putting too much stock in that performance. The Bears offense isn’t good. The Titans defense had really been struggling on third down this season before holding Chicago to 2 of 15. In the first seven games, the Titans were allowing opponents to convert at 62% on third down. The Colts defense has put up good numbers, but also faced a lot of bad offenses. Tennessee is 7th in the NFL in scoring offense at 29.0 points/game and they are averaging 33.0 at home. Play the OVER AAA |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State OVER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Colorado State is 1-1. They lost 38-17 to Fresno State in their opening game, but then bounced back to defeat Wyoming 34-24 last week in the annual “Border War.” Boise State (2-1) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last week with an embarrassing 51-17 home loss to BYU. But it's critical to point out that the Broncos were down to their third string quarterback last Friday and their top running back was also injured. Whether or not the injured players will return this week remains unknown, but we believe Boise coach Bryan Harsin will put together a solid enough game plan to put points on the board Thursday night. The third stringer, true freshman Caleb Fennegan, wasn’t actually all that bad vs. BYU. He threw for two touchdowns and completed 15 of his 26 passes. Colorado State is a much easier opponent than BYU and if called into duty again this week, Fennegan will at least be ready. Boise scored 91 points in its first two games. Colorado State is allowing 448.5 yards/game. No matter who the QB has been for Boise State, they’ve always dominated the Rams. They’ve won all nine meetings and averaged 44.5 points/game in doing so. CSU should score enough to help send this one OVER. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 41 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 153 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER These Patriots aren’t the same Patriots we’re used to seeing. Bill Belichick is already missing Tom Brady as the team is an uncharacteristic 2-5 after seven games. Yet it could be worse. The Jets are 0-8 and easily the worst team in the league. New York is expected to turn to Joe Flacco tonight as Sam Darnold is dealing with a shoulder injury. But there’s no way we’re laying this massive number with a team (NE) that’s lost its last four games. We like the Over. With scoring at an all-time high in 2020, this total is just too low, even with Flacco as one of the starting QBs. While the Jets are last in offense, they do give up 29.8 points/game. We fully expect the Patriots to come through with their highest scoring game in over a month here. Last week they put up 21 on Buffalo and it would have been more had Cam Newton not fumbled late in the red zone. The Newton-led offense has scored 30 or more twice this year. For the Jets, their only other primetime game (Week 4 vs. Denver) produced their highest scoring game of the season and that was with Flacco playing most of the game. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -105 | 46 h 43 m | Show |
THis is an 8* on the OVER We had the Over when these teams met in Week 1 and had the Over in both of their games last week. All three Over bets were victorious. The Over is 7-0 in Saints games for the year. Given that, this number is way too low. Last week was the first Saints game this season where 50 combined points were scored. It was 49 and that was against an all defense/no offense team (the Bears). Saints games are averaging 57.5 points. Five of the seven have gotten to 57. Tom Brady and Tampa Bay are averaging 30.9 points/game. They are averaging 35.7 at home. It wasn’t their finest game Monday against the Giants. But that was on the road. The two weeks prior saw them score 45 (on the road) and 38. Also, look who’s back this week. New Orleans will welcome back WRs Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Chris Godwin is expected to play for Tampa Bay and they just signed Antonio Brown. The Over is 17-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 22 games, so they’ve been an Over machine as well. The Over is 4-2 when Brees faces off with Brady. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-08-20 | Panthers v. Chiefs OVER 52.5 | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 9* on the OVER Carolina-Kansas City is one of eight games on the Week 9 slate with a total of 50 or higher, matching a season-high. It’s a game that should end up even higher scoring than expected. The Chiefs offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, certainly needs no introduction.They are putting up 31.6 points/game. The last two games have seen them score 43 and 35. Mahomes has a 21-1 TD-INT ratio and COULD get Sammy Watkins back this week after the WR missed the last three games. With or without Watkins KC is gonna score on the Panthers defense which often fails to generate a lot of pressure. Carolina’s offense could be better, but the potential return of Christian McCaffrey would be the *chefs kiss* in going against a Chiefs defense giving up a ton of rush yards every week (29th in yards allowed). Like Watkins, McCaffrey’s possible return should just be treated as a “bonus.” We like the Over even if neither returns this week. The Over is on a 23-11 run when Carolina is a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | Top | 40-47 | Win | 100 | 106 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Clemson vs. Notre Dame has lost some of its luster with Trevor Lawrence not playing (COVID). But it’s still a top five matchup that should be plenty of fun. D.J. Uiagalelei is Lawrence’s backup. Clemson still put up 34 last week in his first start. We realize this is a tougher defense than Boston College and the true freshman’s first road start. But don’t fool yourself into thinking the Tigers aren’t going to put up a decent number here. Uiagalelei threw for 342 yards and two scores last week. Travis Etienne is the ACC’s all-time leading rusher. Notre Dame’s defensive numbers, somewhat, are a byproduct of facing a string of bad offensive teams. But Clemson’s cause is done no favors by the injuries on their defensive side. Notre Dame is averaging almost 35 points/game. Ian Book is a really good QB and the Fighting Irish are going to score more than most previous Clemson opponents. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-07-20 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 48.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Baylor was down 30-0 last week (at home!) to TCU last week before it decided to wake up and “start playing.” By then, it was obviously too late and they still ended up losing 33-23. Now the Bears go to Ames to face Iowa State, who won 52-22 last week against Kansas. The Cyclones just barely covered the spread in that one, scoring a late TD to push them over the four TD threshold (spread). They aren’t scoring that many this week. Not even close. Kansas is the worst defensive team in the Big 12. On the bright side, ISU isn’t likely to give up that many either. Baylor has averaged 20.0 points/game the last three weeks, all losses. They haven’t scored more than 23 against anyone besides Kansas. They can’t run the ball (75 or less rush yards in all three games). Under is 31-16-2 in the past 53 games where Iowa State is the favorite. It’s also 5-0-1 the last six times they’ve been off a win by 20 or more points. 9-1-1 after a game where they scored 40 or more points. Baylor is 6-1-1 Under off a SU loss. Under is 4-1 last five meetings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants OVER 46.5 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 154 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coming off a 45-point effort last week vs. Las Vegas and a 38-point effort the week before that (vs. Green Bay), Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense should be in for another big night Monday against the Giants. This Giants defense has struggled to defend the pass (21st in air yards allowed) even though they have already faced four backup quarterbacks! The Buccaneers are averaging 31.7 points/game for the year, so they’ll obviously do most of the scoring here. They are a huge favorite and for good reason. New York is already guaranteed to lose six of its first eight games for the fourth straight season. That’s the worst such active streak in the league right now. While the Giants don’t score much, they are averaging 17.4 points/game, which would be enough to help send this Over presuming Tampa Bay hits its own scoring average. The Buccaneers have allowed 20 or more points three of the last four games. The Over is 20-8 in the Bucs last 28 road games. Over is also 4-1 in the Giants’ last five as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER All the focus is going to be on the Cowboys offense in this one with Ben Dinucci, a 7th round rookie, making his first start. But you can’t forget about how bad this Dallas defense has been in giving up an average of almost 35 points/game. That’s the most in the league and really notable considering how low this total is Sunday night. The Eagles have given up 30 or more points three times themselves. They give up 28.0 points/game. Carson Wentz has played better the last three weeks, a stretch which has seen Philadelphia average 26.3 points. They had over 400 yards last week despite scoring only 22 vs. the Giants. No Eagles game has seen less than 43 points scored. We know it may not have been the case last Thursday vs. the Giants (when we won with the Under) but two bad teams can easily produce a high-scoring game with mistakes. Don’t be surprised if there’s a defensive touchdown in this game. Over is 5-0 for Philly the past five times they’ve been off a game with 350+ total yards. Over is 7-2 for Dallas off a loss by 14 or more points. Play on OVER AAA |
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11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears OVER 45 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Taking the Bears Over may sound risky given that they didn’t score an offensive TD Monday night. But they are playing the Saints, who have gone Over in every game this season. As per usual, Drew Brees and the Saints offense are putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 30.0 per game. This is a very low total for a Saints game. Every single one of their games has seen at least 51 total points scored. The offensive production has come in spite of missing Michael Thomas most of the way. But Chicago does have a chance in this game and that’s because of the Saints defense, which is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago. That unit ranks near the bottom of the league in efficiency and has allowed six passes of 48+ yards the last four games. They’ve allowed the second most TD passes in the league, trailing only Atlanta. Nick Foles will make a couple big plays in this one. He threw an interception in the end zone last week. All we probably need from the Bears is 20-21 points and that’s basically what they are averaging this year (19.7). Play on OVER AAA |
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10-31-20 | Maurice Greene v. Greg Hardy OVER 1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER 1.5 ROUNDS We think this fight between former NFL player Greg Hardy and Maurice Greene will go longer than expected. To be clear, it only needs to get past the halfway mark of the second round for this bet to be a winner. Early in his MMA career, Hardy’s fights were all predictably short. But the last three have all gone the distance. Greene’s last two fights have gone long enough where this Over bet would have cashed. Neither fighter is all that talented, so look for a sloppy fight where neither man is able to finish. Incredibly, neither of these guys have ever landed a single takedown! That makes for a very one-dimension style bout that will be entirely contested standing. Unless one of them gets lucky early, this probably goes to the judges. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-31-20 | Rice v. Southern Miss UNDER 58.5 | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 100 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER Southern Miss is now on to its THIRD head coach of the season, which should tell you all you need to know about the season they are having. The Golden Eagles are now 1-4 and the 56 points allowed to Liberty last week wasn’t even a season-worst. (They allowed 66 to Tulane). Rice is 0-1 after its now famous “quadruple doink” (missed FG) against Middle Tennessee last week. They lost 40-34 in overtime. But despite that score and how many points Southern Miss has been allowing, we think this game stays Under. For Rice, last week was the most total points in any game since 2017. Their defense was actually quite good in 2019 as it yielded an average of just 24 PPG in conference play. Some key absences in the secondary last week led to a worse than expected performance on third down. They should do better this week against a Southern Miss team that is in tatters. While Southern Miss has given up at least 31 points in every game, we’re not sure Rice gets there this week. The Under is 7-3 for Rice the week following an ATS loss. Southern Miss is actually favored here and the Under is 7-2 the last nine times that’s been the case at home. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-25-20 | Jaguars v. Chargers OVER 49 | Top | 29-39 | Win | 100 | 127 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Chargers are 1-4 but as is usually the case, they’re losing close. All four losses have been by seven points or less, three of them coming against the Chiefs, Saints and Bucs. Two of those three were in overtime! They are off a bye here and facing a Jaguars team that also has just one win, but has been a lot less competitive in doing so. Jacksonville lost 34-16 at home to Detroit last week, making it five straight games they’ve allowed 30 or more points. All five have been losses. The Chargers offense scored 31 and 27 against Tampa Bay and New Orleans as rookie QB Justin Herbert continues to perform better than expected. He very well could be in for his best day as a pro this week. He might have to be, seeing as the Chargers defense has given up 38 and 30 points in those last two games. Jacksonville’s Gardner Minshew has attempted 40 or more passes in each of the last five games. The Over is 7-3 in the Jags previous 10 conference games. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-24-20 | Justin Gaethje v. Khabib Nurmagomedov UNDER 4.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Despite being a pretty big underdog for this unification bout, Gaethje does have a path to victory, which is something you can’t say about virtually any of Nurmagomedov’s previous 28 opponents (all of whom have lost). Gaethje is not only a great striker, but possesses tremendous takedown defense. He will be the first former D-1 NCAA wrestler that Nurmagomedov has had to face. Gaethje has only been taken down twice in his entire UFC career. Nurmagomedov almost always gets his opponent down to the mat. The problem for Gaethje is he’s never dealt with the kind of grappler Nurmagomedov is. (Few have, except those who have faced him). Gaethje’s preferred chance here is to keep the fight standing and hopefully deliver one fatal blow. Almost all of his wins have come by TKO/submission, so there is that. But the more likely outcome is Nurmagomedov eventually does get Gaethje down and ends it as per usual. Regardless, this fight will end before the 5th round expires. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This is the best starting pitching matchup we’ve had thus far in the World Series as Walker Buehler goes for the Dodgers and Charlie Morton goes for the Rays. Buehler threw six scoreless innings the last time we saw him and has given up just four runs total his last five starts. He’s allowed just 16 hits during that time and while there have been some issues with control (not the last start), perhaps the most important thing is he’s given up just two home runs this postseason. The Rays are getting an irregularly high amount of their runs from the long ball, which just isn’t sustainable. The Under is 5-0 in Buehler’s previous five starts. Morton has been even hotter than Buehler, if you can believe it. In the playoffs, Morton has a 0.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He didn’t allow runs in either start in the ALCS. Game 2 was Tampa Bay’s highest scoring game since Game 3 of the ALDS against the Yankees. They have scored four or more in back to back games only one time in the playoffs and that was Games 3-4 of that series with the Yankees. The Under is 5-1 the L6 times they’ve been off a win. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 44 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 59 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The NFC East is a total joke right now. Despite losing Dak Prescott for the year and getting blown out Monday night, Dallas is still in first place with a 2-4 record. Either the Giants or Eagles will join the Cowboys at 2 wins after Thursday. That is unless they tie, which Philly did earlier in the year against Cincinnati. The Giants were the last team in the division to record a win, doing so last week, appropriately against Washington. They scored just 20 points though and that was with a defensive score. New York is 31st in both yards and points per game offensively and their scoring average of 16.8 PPG would be significantly lower if not for putting up 34 points against the worst defense in the league (Dallas). The Eagles scored 28 last week against the Ravens, but a lot of that came in “garbage time.” Carson Wentz isn’t having a good year at all and TE Zach Ertz is going to be out for at least 3-4 weeks. Running back Miles Sanders will also miss this game. They aren’t turning things around on a short week. The only good news for Eagles fans is that the Giants have topped 16 points on offense in only one game this year (at Dallas), so they won’t be scoring much here. The Under is 5-1 for the Eagles, their last six games as a home favorite while it’s 4-1 for the Giants in their last five as a road underdog. Play on UNDER. AAA |
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10-18-20 | Ravens v. Eagles OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 142 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER With the exception of the Monday night game vs. Kansas City, Baltimore has run roughshod over the rest of the league, winning four games by 14 points or more. This week they travel to Philadelphia to face a wounded Eagles team that’s 1-3-1 overall and just gave up 38 points to Pittsburgh last week. Seeing as how the Ravens have scored at least 27 points in all of their wins this year, we see this game going Over the total with little drama. The Ravens probably could have scored even more if they “wanted” last week, but with such a commanding lead over the Bengals, they clearly took their foot off the gas in the second half. The Eagles are likely to be playing “catch up” most of the way here and one positive for them is that they have increased their scoring from the previous week in every game this season. But a defense that’s given up an average of 29 points/game while facing some not very good offenses is in for a rough one this week. The Over is 4-0 for Philadelphia the last four seasons in Week 6. That trend stays alive this week. Consider how much scoring we’re seeing across the league this year, this number seems low. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-16-20 | BYU v. Houston OVER 62.5 | Top | 43-26 | Win | 100 | 79 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER While it would be accurate to say both BYU and Houston come into this Friday night matchup “undefeated,” it’s also a tad bit misleading. BYU is 4-0, but Houston is only 1-0 after finally opening its season last Thursday. Still this should be a pretty exciting game. After rolling through its first three games (Navy, Troy, La Tech) by a combined score of 148-24, Brigham Young was finally tested last week and it was by perhaps the unlikeliest of opponents. UTSA, a 34-point underdog, hung close in what was a 27-20 final. That said, BYU did move the ball a lot in that game, gaining 476 yards. But they had issues finishing drives. They fumbled inside the red zone on the opening possession, then turned it over on downs (in UTSA territory) on the second. Don’t worry about a Cougars offense that is averaging 7.8 yards per play thus far. Nor should you worry about a Houston offense that put up 49 points last week despite its own early troubles. QB Clayton Tune had two 1st quarter turnovers (INT, fumble) that were returned for Tulane touchdown, but recovered to throw for over 300 yards. The BYU defense just allowed a season-worst 287 pass yards against UTSA and Tune should easily eclipse that mark. Look for a lot of fireworks in this one. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Tampa Bay has done all the “little things” right in taking a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 lead in this year’s ALCS. Last night, it was their defense that carried them to a 5-2 victory. Houston is hitting the ball hard in this series. The ball just keeps landing in the gloves of the Rays fielders. They’ve also had MORE hits in the series compared to the Rays. But none of that matters now. We do think the Astros, who have been held to just five runs in three games, are going to score more in Game 4. Whether it’s enough to keep the series going remains to be seen. Zack Greinke will start tonight for Houston. He’s not lasted over five innings in any of his last five times out and has given up at least three runs in four of those five outings. He allowed two homers in the LDS start vs. Oakland. Tyler Glasnow will start here for the Rays. He has an 11-0 TSR his L11 starts, so they couldn’t have asked for a better scenario as they look to advance to the World Series. However, be aware that Glasnow only made it through 2 ⅓ innings his last time out and did give up four runs in his first of the two LDS starts. We know the first three games all stayed Under, but Game 4 should sneak Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53.5 | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The 4-0 Bills and 3-0 Titans had to wait a couple extra days, but finally get to “hook it up” in a special TUESDAY night edition of the NFL. Tennessee did not play last week as it was a COVID-19 outbreak among their ranks that not only forced a cancellation, but the postponement here. Buffalo was originally going to host Kansas City this Thursday, but that game had to be bumped back to Monday due to the situation here. So by the time these teams do hit the field, there will have already been a lot of moving pieces dealt with. We don’t think either offense is going to be firing on all cylinders given the circumstance and will take the Under. Depending on what your closing line for last week’s game with Las Vegas was, there is a chance that you have the Bills at 4-0 Over. They’ve hit 30+ points three weeks in a row as the offense has greatly exceeded expectations thus far. Tennessee is off two straight 30+ point games, but those might as well have been last season. They are missing multiple receivers now including Corey Davis. This will be the highest total either team has faced so far this season. Under is 20-8-1 Bills L29 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints OVER 51.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 171 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 10* on LA/NO Over New Orleans has gone Over in every game thus far, scoring 30 or more points themselves three times. They’ve also given up 29 or more points in three straight games. Last week, they won a 35-29 shootout at Detroit. We had the Saints in that one and watched them score touchdowns on five consecutive drives after trailing 14-0 early. They had 29 first downs and this was without WR Michael Thomas, who could be back for this game. As long as Alvin Kamara is part of the offense, it will continue to score. He already has 557 total yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. The Chargers had not gone Over in a game this year until last week’s 38-31 loss to the Buccaneers. That was a wild one and while LA lost, the offense is definitely in better hands with rookie QB Justin Herbert guiding it as opposed to veteran Tyrod Taylor. We think both teams are going to be able to move the ball up and down the field in this Monday nighter and given NFL games are averaging right around 51.5 points for the year, this total is too low considering the Saints are involved. The Over is 6-2 in New Orleans’ last eight MNF appearances, one of those coming three weeks ago vs. Las Vegas. The Over is also 10-4 the Chargers’ L14 games after allowing 30 or more the previous week. The Over is 5-0 the L5 times these teams have met. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Houston took an early 1-0 lead in Game 1, but did not score after the first inning. As a result, they dropped Game 1 by a score of 2-1. That was still a winner for us, mind you. We had the Astros +1.5. Two of the game's three runs came on solo HRs - Jose Altuve for the Astros and Randy Arozarena for the Rays. We don’t anticipate much scoring taking place in Game 2 either. Consider that Tampa Bay has just 12 hits - total - its last three games. All three runs they’ve scored in the last two games have been solo shots. So they’re not doing much scoring otherwise. Houston’s Game 2 starter Lance McCullers did have a bit of a rough go in the LDS vs. Oakland, but prior to that hadn’t allowed a single earned run over his previous three starts. The three HR’s he allowed to the A’s was more than he gave up in his previous 8 starts combined. Tampa’s Charlie Morton has allowed just 1 HR in his L7 starts and only 4 all year. He’s yet to allow multiple HR in the same start. Two starters that are good at preventing the long ball should help keep this one Under the total rather easily. Under is 8-1-1 the Rays’ L10 after scoring 2 runs or less last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-10-20 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina UNDER 60.5 | Top | 45-56 | Loss | -116 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The ACC will be front and center on Saturday as four of its five ranked teams will square off in a pair of marquee matchups. While Va Tech-North Carolina may not get the same amount of press as Miami-Clemson, the former figures to be a tight game and we think it’ll be a little lower scoring than expected as well. North Carolina’s first two games have both stayed Under. The key here will be their run defense, which is ranked #1 in the country, stopping Hokies running back Khalil Herbert. Herbert, a transfer from Kansas, had 212 yards rushing and a school-record 358 all-purpose yards in last week’s 38-31 win over Duke. That’s more than double the number of rush yards this Tar Heels defense has allowed in two games. UNC allowed just 22 total points to Syracuse and Boston College. While Virginia Tech is better than either of those teams, their offense can certainly be one-dimensional. The QB situation is unsettled and they completed only nine passes vs. the Duke defense. The Hokies won’t be scoring anywhere close to the number of points we saw from them in the first two games nor will this one be anything like last year’s 6OT marathon with the Tar Heels, which Va Tech won 43-41. An interesting note about the game, which was the longest in ACC history: it was just 29-29 at the end of regulation. The Under is 8-3 the L11 times the Hokies have been a road underdog. Play on UNDER AAA |
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10-06-20 | Aces v. Storm OVER 170.5 | Top | 59-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Sue Bird and the Seattle Storm are one win away from a 4th WNBA title. Standing in their way is the Las Vegas Aces, whom they’ve already beaten 93-80 and 104-91 in the first two games. The Aces face a daunting task having to beat the Storm three times in a row, but will undoubtedly be “ready to go” in Game 3. All five Seattle starters were in double figures in Game 2, led by Breanna Stewart’s 22, but what really caught our eye was the Finals’ record 33 assists the team dished out. What has to be disheartening for Las Vegas is that they shot 52.0%, scored 91 points and still lost by double digits. (Seattle shot 57.1% in Game 2 after shooting 50.0% in Game 1). But Aces coach Bill Laimbeer (yes, him!) rightly pointed to the fact his team shot only FIVE free throws in Game 2). During the regular season, LV averaged 23 FT’s per game. WIth Laimbeer being vocal about the FT disparity in the last game, expect his team to get more attempts from the charity stripe tonight. The first two games of this WNBA Finals have obviously been very high scoring (especially the last one) and we don’t see any reason why Game 3 should be any different. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers OVER 45 | Top | 25-20 | Push | 0 | 125 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Two playoff teams from last season both have their fair share of issues going into Sunday night. The 49ers are as banged up as any team in football right now, having already lost their QB, RB, top two receivers and top two defensive players. Some of those players could return this week though. TE George Kittle is the most likely (to return) while WR Samuel also could find his way back on the field. Regardless of the absences, the 49ers have found a way to score 30+ points in back to back games. Backup QB Nick Mullens is fine. Philadelphia is 0-2-1 with QB Carson Wentz struggling. But we can seem him getting things going this week against a 49ers defense whose numbers are skewed after facing the likes of Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones the last two weeks. Two of the Eagles three games have gone Over and had they not settled for a tie with the Bengals last week, the Over would be 3-0. This is a low total relative to the rest of this week’s card. The Over is 18-5 the L23 times Philly has been a road underdog. It is 6-2 Over the L8 times the 49ers have been home favorites. Play on OVER AAA |
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10-03-20 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State OVER 64 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -105 | 72 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 8* on OVER Kansas State and Texas Tech had different results last Saturday, but both games were certainly high scoring. Kansas State pulled off what is - to this point - the upset of the season in College Football with a 38-35 stunner over Oklahoma. It wasn’t just that the Wildcats won as a four-touchdown underdog, but how. They came back from a 21-point second half deficit in Norman! Later in the day, Texas Tech happened to blow a late double digit lead against Texas and lost in overtime 63-56. That they lost was no matter to us. We had the Red Raiders plus the points and they easily covered. In fact, at no point during the game were they NOT covering. Facing each other this week, Kansas State and Texas Tech may have trouble duplicating the excitement of last week’s contests, but this should certainly be another high scoring one. Remember that not only did TT give up 63 points last week, they also permitted Houston Baptist to gain 600 yards in the season opener. Kansas State has given up 35 points in both of their games. We see both teams scoring 30+ again this week and that makes for an easy Over. The Over is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-30-20 | Heat v. Lakers OVER 217.5 | Top | 98-116 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Both the Heat and Lakers come into this series on a bit of an “Over roll.” Miami has gone Over in four straight and the Lakers three in a row. The Over was 5-0-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals. It was 4-1 in the Western Conference Finals. Miami’s shooting, which had begun to cool off as the ECF progressed, got hot again in a major way Sunday night in the close out game. They shot 56.3% overall and 48.1% from three against one of the better defensive teams in this league. The Lakers shot better than 50% three times against the Nuggets. LeBron James has not faced his former team in some time. You’d have to go all the way back to December when the Lakers won 113-110 down in Miami. Before that, the previous meeting was November of 2019! If you’re looking at playoff averages, Heat games are seeing 219.4 points/game scored. Lakers games are at 220.4. There were just two instances in LA’s last nine games where they did not score at least 110 points. Miami has hit 112 or higher seven times in its last 11 games. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-29-20 | White Sox v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The A’s got a pretty tough first round draw here with the White Sox, who - despite finishing as the 7-seed - were tied for the best run differential (+60) in the American League. Not only have these teams never met in the postseason, they didn’t meet all in 2020. We’ve got Lucas Giolito starting for the White Sox and Jesus Luzardo starting for the A’s in Game 1. Oakland home games were pretty low scoring in 2020 (averaged just 7.3 runs/game) but this is a low total and the White Sox average 5.1 runs/game. That was second most in the American League and they were second in slugging as well. Chicago’s last four regular season games went Over with them allowing 10 twice. None of those were with Giolito on the mound, but we’ve got to point out the fact he’s allowed at least one home run in four of his last five starts. Luzardo got this start because he’s been so good at home, but he too had a problem with the long ball of late. Luzardo also got to pitch against a lot of weak teams in the regular season. San Diego was one of the few top-level offensive teams he faced and he gave up four runs in 4 ⅔. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints OVER 51.5 | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 122 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Saints might be at home and favored, but the Packers are the team with all the momentum heading into this Sunday night matchup. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay are 2-0, having put up two 40+ games so far. Now those came against Minnesota and Detroit, two teams that are a combined 0-4. But let’s not forget the Saints just allowed 34 points Monday night to Las Vegas. Even though the narrative is that New Orleans’ offense is “struggling,” that group is still averaging 29 points/game. Most teams would love for that to be considered “struggling.” The Over is a combined 4-0 in these teams games this season. Expect this to be another shootout as its two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time going up against some suspect defenses. Green Bay did allow a frightening number of yards per play against Minnesota in Week 1 (7.8). They also gave up touchdowns on the first two drives vs. Detroit. This is one of those deals where the oddsmakers probably can’t make the total “high enough” as the Over is 23-11 in GB’s last 34 road games. The Over has also gone 7-1 the last eight times these teams have played. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-27-20 | Newcastle United v. Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 114 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s a matchup of 1-0-1 sides in North London Saturday. Tottenham lost their Premier League opener, 1-0 to Everton. But with Everton now sitting at the top of the table, that loss no longer looks bad. The Hotspurs’ form since that loss has been stellar. They are 3-0 across all competitions including a 5-2 win last week over Southampton. Newcastle has gone about their results in a different manner. They started with a 2-0 victory over West Ham on the opening weekend of the campaign. But then the Magpies suffered a much different fate last weekend when they were beaten 3-0 by Brighton & Hove Albion. For those “keeping score,” that’s three clean sheets (either way) in EPL play between these two sides. Both have been kept clean once. Gareth Bale is still a few weeks away from making his Tottenham debut. So don’t go expecting another five goal effort from the Spurs this weekend. Meanwhile, Newcastle just scored 7 goals at Morecambe in Carabao Cup action earlier this week. That’s not going to happen again either. With Newcastle having kept three clean sheets in their last four across all competitions (and being held scoreless themselves in the other), Under is the call here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-27-20 | Paulo Costa v. Israel Adesanya OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 56 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER (2.5 rounds) A fight for the Middleweight Title headlines UFC 253. Champion Israel Adesanya comes in at a perfect 19-0 with 14 of those victories coming by either KO or TKO. But the challenger, Paulo Costa is also undefeated with a 13-0 record and only one of those victories have required the judges to render a decision. But with two fighters this skilled matched up against each other in a championship situation, look for this fight to go longer than expected. Costa’s last four fights have all reached the second round with the most recent being that lone decision win (over Yoel Romero). Adesanya has finished only two of his last seven opponents and is also off a decision victory over Romero. This fight should reach the third round and possibly go even longer. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 213 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We also like the Over in this game. Miami has shot poorly in the last two games. Each time they were below 30% on 3PA and 43% overall. They’re going to improve in those departments tonight. Bet on it. As for Boston, they’ve shot 47.6% or better each of the last three games. Gordon Hayward has returned for them. So they too could be capable of exceeding their point total from the last game. Depending on your Game 2 closing O/U line, there hasn’t been an Under in this series. Games 1, 3, 4 and all went Over by double digits. The number is just too low. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-24-20 | A's v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER With the Dodgers having wrapped up their 8th consecutive NL West pennant the night before, they got “caught with their pants down” early last night against Oakland. They trailed 3-0 after one inning, but were still able to rally and tie the game up 4-4 heading into the ninth. But a 2-run HR by Roman Laureano in the 9th won it for Oakland. We look for less scoring in tonight’s game, the finale between two division champs. Michael Fiers starts for the Athletics. He’s done an excellent job the first time through the batting order as his ERA in the first two innings of a game is just 0.90. He also holds opposing hitters to a .145 average in those first two innings. The A’s have won more times with Fiers on the mound than any other starter this season. Fiers has also gone 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA in five career starts vs. the Dodgers. He’ll be opposed by Walker Buehler, who is coming off the DL. He’s 6-1 with a 1.01 WHIP this season. Two solid pitchers here. Only two of the A’s previous eight games have seen more than nine total runs scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars UNDER 48 | Top | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two of the NFL’s three Floridian teams meet in the Week 3 opener Thursday night. Jacksonville was supposedly tanking this year, but at 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS has been surprisingly competitive thus far. Miami is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, a disappointment to those who thought this team might be competitive in the AFC East this season. Thus far, the Dolphins defense has not played very well. Particularly last week when they surrendered 524 yards on a horrific 8.9 yard per play average against the Bills. Even though it's a short turnaround and they’re playing on the road, we look for Brian Flores’ D to turn it around this week. Jacksonville, despite averaging 28.5 points/game, lacks the kind of weapons that Buffalo and New England (Miami’s Week 1 opponent) have. With Miami, it should be pointed out that they had scored only 24 points through the first seven quarters of the season. The clock is clearly ticking on QB Tannehill as the fans want to see Tua. The Under is 9-4 in Jacksonville’s last 13 home games as well as 7-1 the L8 times they allowed 30 or more points the previous game. The Under is also 6-1 the last 7 times these teams have played. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-22-20 | Lakers v. Nuggets UNDER 214 | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER So we hopped on the Over in Game 1 of this series. That was our top NBA play of the year and it won easily, cashing by 28 points as the Lakers rolled to a 126-114 victory. Game 2 was a lot tighter and lower-scoring. Denver, who we had, was able to stay within the number this time in a 105-103 loss. It took an Anthony Davis 3-pointer at the buzzer for the Lakers to pull out the win there. The Nuggets did trail most of the way and by as many as 16 at one juncture, which is nothing new for them. Though now 7-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason, we worry about Denver’s psyche heading into Game 3. They shot the ball better than the Lakers did in Game 2 and still lost. It’s also definitely notable how the total tonight is higher than it was for either Game 1 or 2. The Under is 7-1-2 in Denver’s past 10 games, a complete departure from how the first 14 games went. The Lakers have allowed 103 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Denver has allowed 105 points or less in five of their last six. Play on UNDER. AAA |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER We’ve got two teams on Monday Night Football that scored 34 points last week. Both teams also gave up their fair share (of points) last week, so it was 2 for 2 when it comes to Overs. With New Orleans, both the quarterback and coach seemed dissatisfied with their performance. Brees and Payton are likely to be much more satisfied with themselves after facing this terrible Raiders defense this week. Last week Las Vegas gave up almost 400 yards to a Carolina team with a 1st year head coach and new starting quarterback. That’s really nothing new for the Raiders. Over the last three seasons, they have ranked second to last in points allowed and dead last in yards per play allowed. They allowed 6.1 yards per play last week vs. Carolina. Even though they won’t have WR Thomas, look for the Saints to move the ball up and down the field in this game. Las Vegas should put up a decent number too, in their brand new stadium. The Over is 5-2 in the Saints last seven Monday night games. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-19-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 206 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Game 1 of this series went to overtime, so it ended up being an easy Over as the Heat won 117-114. You should note the Over was a winner by the end of regulation. Game 2, a 106-101 Heat victory, just stayed Under despite the losing side shooting 50% from the field. Boston also had a 13-point lead at halftime in Game 2. Blowing all of that in one quarter was a real shocker as Miami now is 10-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs, the only loss coming in overtime. The Heat’s trademark three-point shooting, which has been so big for them during this postseason run, was not that good in Game 2. They made only 32.6% from behind the arc. That they still won should frighten Celtics fans a bit. Down 0-2, you’ve got to figure Boston comes out strong here as they seek to avoid their first three-game losing streak in the bubble. Another loss would effectively end this series. But look for Miami’s three-point shooting, which is at 38.0% for the playoffs, to be better than it was in Game 2. The Over is 26-12 for the Heat off their previous 38 SU wins. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 211 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Denver wasn’t the opponent the Lakers expected to face here. But the Nuggets “ruined” what could have been an all-LA Western Conference Finals by stunning the Clippers in Game 7 Tuesday, 104-89. That was a stunning result even for us, and we had the Nuggets plus the points. It marked the second consecutive series where Denver rallied back from a 3-1 deficit. In the entire history of the NBA Playoffs, no team before them had ever rallied back from multiple 3-1 series deficits in the same postseason. The Under was 5-0-2 in the Clippers-Nuggets series, marking a huge departure from Denver’s previous 15 games where the Over had gone 13-2. We like Game 1 of the WCF to revert back to Denver’s “old ways,” as this number is just too low. The prior three Lakers-Nuggets matchups, the last of which took place here in the bubble, all went Over. On August 10th, the Nuggets shot 58.4% while the Lakers shot 54.3% in a 124-121 LA victory. Denver shot 56.5 from behind the arc! Though they somehow held the Clippers under 100 points in three of the last four games, we feel that had more to do with poor shooting than Denver’s defense. The Lakers have shot better than 50% in six of their last eight games. In the playoffs, Lakers games have averaged 219.3 points/game. Denver games have averaged 215.1 and that number grows when factoring in the entire time spent in the bubble. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-17-20 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 115 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Tampa Bay missed out on its first try to finish the Islanders, so here goes “round two.” It was a 2-1 win for the Islanders in Game 5, the kind of final score we’ve become much more accustomed to seeing from them this postseason. After all, NY came into the series having given up the fewest number of goals per game (1.94) the first two rounds. In the two games where they have faced elimination in the playoffs, the Islanders have given up a total of one goal. Remember they shut out the Flyers 4-0 in Game 7 of the semifinal round. The bad news though is they only got off 24 shots Tuesday in a game that went to two overtimes. That probably won’t cut it again. In four of the five games in this series, the Islanders have been held to two goals or fewer. They are 48-21-5 the L74 games as an underdog. The Lightning are 11-5-3 Under the L18 games overall. You can’t discount the injury to Brayden Point. TB’s two lowest scoring games of the series have come with him out of the lineup. His status is questionable for Game 6. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-15-20 | A's v. Rockies UNDER 12 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Under is not something you normally think about taking at Coors Field. But with the Rockies’ recent offensive struggles and the A’s being in a bit of bind, Under in the route we’re going in tonight’s series opener. Colorado has topped five runs only one time in its last six games. That was here at home, but so were the last two games which saw them score just five runs total. Tonight they are facing a red hot pitcher in Sean Manaea, who’s won his last four starts while posting a 1.61 ERA. Manaea has issued only one walk during that time and has allowed only six runs in 22 ⅓ (two runs were unearned). But the A’s are likely going to have to ride Manaea in this one after playing 10 games in 7 days including a doubleheader vs. Seattle yesterday. Injuries have also hit the everyday lineup hard as 3B Chapman’s season is over and OF Piscotty sprained his knee yesterday. The Under is 22-5-1 in the A’s last 28 road games with a total of 11.0 or higher. Rockies starter Senzatela actually has pretty good numbers here at home and should keep Oakland in check. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Lots of line movement here as Tennessee has been bet to the role of favorite after opening as a 2-point dog. The total, which is what we’re playing, has also been on the move. It’s down to pretty low 40.5 as of press time, which would be the second lowest O/U on the board for NFL Week 1 (only Jets-Bills lower). Injuries have also become a factor in handicapping this nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Titans are going to be without three defensive starters: Adoree Jackson, Vic Beasley and Derrick Roberson. The Broncos have one major absence on the defensive side of the ball themselves, that being Von Miller, who has suffered a serious ankle injury. All those missing defensive players have us taking the Over here. Denver’s offense is going to be a lot better this year. The front office went out and made sure to surround QB Drew Lock with plenty of skill position talent. Let’s not forget Tennessee made the AFC Title Game in January on the back of RB Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s rushing leader. They scored 20 or more points in their final 10 games last year. The Over is 4-0 the Titans L4 MNF appearances and 6-1 the L7 times they have been a favorite. The Over is also 8-2 Denver’s L10 season openers. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 49 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is probably the most anticipated game of the weekend as Tom Brady and the new look Bucs head into New Orleans to take on the always tough Saints. It’s the first time Brady will be an underdog in his last 75 regular season starts. Brady has been outstanding as an underdog (37-16-1 ATS) In his career and will obviously be motivated. He has much better weapons at his disposal here in Tampa than he did last year in New England. The Saints are the Saints. They are always going to score plenty. While the Bucs defense was actually underrated in terms of yards and stopping the run last year, the Over still went 12-4 in their games. In his last two home games vs. Tampa Bay, Drew Brees has completed over 80% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over is 4-1 L5 meetings including 2-0 last year. Over is 6-0 in the Saints past six season openers. Over is 10-1 TB’s L11 conference games and 5-0 L5 times as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-12-20 | Leeds United v. Liverpool OVER 3 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER If it feels like the 2019-20 Premier League season just ended, well, that’s because it did on July 26th. The incredibly quick turnaround between campaigns is obviously due to COVID-19, but you can bet all the clubs are eager to return to the pitch, starting Saturday. Liverpool is off a historic season where it set a number of EPL records, including earliest title win (with seven matches to spare). They also won 18 in a row (before being defeated by Watford on Feb 29), 25 straight at home and at one point had a 25-point lead in the table. Being that it was their first domestic title in 30 years, Liverpool is far from assured of finishing first again. They made almost no offseason additions. The same cannot be said for Leeds United, who added Rodrigo to its ranks via a record setting deal. Of course, Leeds has a long way to go to catching the likes of Liverpool as they were just promoted (after a 16-year Premier League absence) due to winning last season’s Championship. What we think you can expect here is a relatively high-scoring affair, or at least one that goes Over the total. Liverpool has kept just one clean sheet in its last nine affairs, which includes the preseason. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-11-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 204.5 | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s all tied up 3-3 between Boston and Toronto. The Raptors have never led in the series, coming back from 2-0 and 3-2. A case could be made that the series really hasn’t been that “close” seeing as two of the three Celtics wins were blowouts and all three Raptors wins have been close. With the exception of Game 3, which they won at the buzzer, Toronto has really struggled with its shooting against the Boston defense. Five of the six games have seen them shoot 43.6% or worse. The most points they’ve been able to muster in regulation is 104. Obviously, the final score of Game 6 is misleading since it went into double overtime. Now Boston has been held to 103 points or less (in regulation) in four of the six games. The Under is 8-2 in Boston games the L2 rounds and would be 6-0 in this series, if not for overtime in Game 6. The Under is 13-5 in all Toronto games since the restart. It’s Game 7, so the defensive intensity will be turned up to “10.” Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Lightning exploded for 8 goals in Game 1, burying the Islanders in the process. Scoring 8 goals in one game is always going to be impressive, but when you do it against a team that was allowing just 1.94 goals/game since the restart, well, that’s downright remarkable. Obviously, the Lightning aren’t scoring 8 goals again in Game 2. Nor should they come close to that number. This is an Islanders team that kept the Flyers to 16 shots in Game 7 and kept the Capitals to two goals or less in four of the five games in the Opening Round. There were only three games that went Over for the Lightning in the first two rounds. They have allowed just six goals in the last four games. The Under is 7-3 the last 10 times the Islanders have been off a loss by 3 or more goals. The Under is 8-2 for the Lightning the last 10 times they have been off a game where they scored 5 or more goals. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-09-20 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Colorado is having all sorts of trouble with San Diego this year. The last four times these NL West rivals have met, it has been the Padres coming out on top. The Rockies have managed a grand total of seven runs in those four losses, five of those coming last night. Meanwhile, SD has twice scored double digit runs on Rockies pitching, including 14 yesterday. The Padres continue to pace all of MLB with 253 runs scored in 44 games. They should finish above their 5.7 runs/game average again tonight as they face Senzatela, who is 6-2 Over in his eight starts for the Rockies. Senzatela does have two really good starts under his belt vs. the Padres, but the third time should be the charm for the best offense in baseball. San Diego starter Davies has mostly been lights out so far, but has given up seven runs in two starts vs. Colorado. Consider that in the nine head to head meetings between Colorado & San Diego this year, the winning team has scored at least six runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-08-20 | Lakers v. Rockets OVER 223.5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Lakers evened this series up Sunday (1-1) with a 117-109 win in Game 2. After getting off to fast start (led 36-20 after the first quarter), LA actually trailed going into the fourth. But they turned up the defense (just 17 points allowed in 4th) and their own hot shooting (56.6% for the game) was too much for Houston to overcome. Now we’re onto a critical Game 3 that should see both teams heavily focused. Somebody to watch is Russell Westbrook, whose numbers have been far from stellar since returning to the court in the Oklahoma City series. Westbrook missed six of the seven three-point attempts he took in Game 2. We think he’s in line to have a better Game 3. On the flip side, the Rockets have allowed an average of 100 points on 43.5% shooting the L5 games. We don’t think that’ll hold up. The Lakers have a big matchup advantage on the inside (Anthony Davis) and have scored at least 111 points in five of their last six games. Look for the Over to hit for a second straight game. Play on OVER. AAA |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER While it may seem “controversial” to bet the Under on a total of 5.0 - especially with the Lightning involved - what the Islanders have been doing defensively since the restart is very impressive. They’re allowing a league-best 1.94 goals per game. While Tampa Bay was able to score three or more times in 7 of the 10 games against Boston and Columbus, this is a greater challenge. Plus the Lightning have to deal with the “rust” issue having not taken the ice for an actual game since August 31st, which is exactly one week ago. The Islanders just staved off top-seeded Philadelphia in a 7-game series. But let’s not forget they were up 3-1 in that series or that they blanked the Flyers in Game 7 (4-0), holding them to just 16 shot attempts. The Isles kept the Capitals to two goals or less in four of five games in the previous round. Not convinced either side scores more than two goals tonight. There were only three games that went Over in the Lightning’s first two series. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy OVER 48.5 | Top | 55-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER BYU is coming off two consecutive 7-6 seasons and this may be the most experienced (and talented) team Kalani Sitake has had yet in Provo. Last year did end with a 38-34 loss in the Hawaii Bowl (to Hawaii), however, the Cougars offense really turned it on down the stretch by scoring 31 or more points in five of the last six games. Sitake’s team opens the season all the way across the country in Annapolis against Navy. The Midshipmen won 11 games and beat Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl last year. That was a big bounce back from the 3-win season that was 2018. They averaged 37.2 points/game last season, a three year high under coach Niumatalolo. This game was not originally scheduled for 2020. While both teams have some holes to fill on offense, look for a relatively high-scoring game Monday night. We saw several teams on Saturday put up big point totals and not look adversely affected by the lack of practice time. BYU is 3-0-1 Over its last four games against American teams. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-06-20 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Dodgers were held to just two runs on Saturday and lost to the Rockies. But you can’t keep this lineup down for long as LA has scored 230 runs in 41 games, which is second most in all of baseball. They exploded for 10 runs in the series opener and Rockies pitching has really struggled mightily this last week or so. Four different times in their last eight games, Colorado has allowed 10 runs or more. Who can forget the humiliating 23-5 loss they took on the 1st of the month, at the hands of the Giants? So the Dodgers are very much capable of sending this one Over on their own. Especially facing Castellani, who has a 7.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP his past three starts. In two of those three starts, the Rockies opponent has ended up scoring 13 runs. The Over is 5-1 when Dodgers’ starter Urias is pitching including 3-0 L3. There have been no fewer than nine total runs scored in all of his starts in 2020. It was a low-scoring game yesterday, but that won’t be the case here in this unusually late Sunday start. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 224 | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Houston pulled the upset in Game 1, winning 112-97 as a 6.5-point dog. It was the Lakers’ second straight Game 1 loss as in the 1st round, they lost 100-93 to Portland. Of course, they came back and won that series by rather easily taking the next four games. So LA definitely can’t be counted out. However, they are just 3-10-1 ATS in the bubble, meaning they’re tough to trust laying points. We’re playing the total in Game 2, which we believe is too high. The Rockets 34-17 Under L51 as underdogs and 18-6 Under L24 when coming off an upset win. A big surprise in their playoff run has been the defense, which has allowed more than 108 in regulation just one time. Over the last four contests, they’re giving up just over 95 points/game and the Under is 4-0. Houston hasn’t scored more than 114 since Game 1 of the Thunder series. The Lakers allowed just 88 points against Portland in Game 2 of their last series (last time off a loss). The Under is 4-1 the last five Rockets-Lakers matchups including 2 for 2 inside the bubble. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-03-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Vegas suffered a shocking loss in Game 5, falling to Vancouver by a score of 2-1. We had the Canucks on the puck line, but for the second time in this series when doing so, the +1.5 wasn’t even necessary. The Golden Knights have basically been a favorite of -200 or higher every game in the series. So it is a little surprising we’ve gotten all the way to Game 6. It’s tough to imagine Vegas losing two in a row, something they have yet to do while in the bubble. Last time they were off a loss, they bounced back to shut Vancouver out in Game 3. Odds are too high to take the Golden Knights, but we’re definitely confident they bounce back offensively in this one following what was their lowest scoring effort of the series. Since returning from lockdown, they have averaged a very solid 3.5 goals per game (3.2 for this series). Vancouver’s scoring average has come down in this series, but the fact they have scored four or more goals seven times in the bubble cannot be overlooked. The Over is 20-7-1 the L28 times Vancouver has been off a game where it scored two or less goals. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It comes down to one game for Oklahoma City and Houston. Winner moves on. The loser goes home. The Rockets won the first two games, 123-108 and 111-98, with Game 1 being our top NBA side selection for all of August. We had the Rockets in Game 2 as well. Game 3 it was time to pivot to the Over, another winner for us, and this time one for Oklahoma City as they prevailed 119-107 in overtime. The next two games we laid off. Game 4 was another close Thunder win, 117-114, then the Rockets bounced back in a major way in Russell Westbrook’s return with a 114-80 win in Game 5. Game 6 saw us “re-enter” the series with a play on the Under. It hit comfortably as it was a 104-100 Thunder win with a total of 223.5. So while the series is tied 3-3, we’re 4-0. Over is the play for Game 7 as neither team has really shot very well the L2 games, something we anticipate will change. The two games with the lowest posted totals both went Over. This will probably close as the 2nd lowest total for any game of the series. Play on OVER AAA |
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09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers are in a lot better shape than the Dbax right now and that’s why they’re a big favorite to win Tuesday. Los Angeles currently holds the best record in baseball at 26-10 and they are WAY out in front of everyone else with a +90 run differential. Arizona is last in the division with a 14-21 record and has lost 9 of its last 10. With it being highly likely the Dodgers will come up to bat only eight times in this game, we’re predicting an Under. Earlier in the year, these teams played a four game series in Arizona. The Dodgers won three of the games and the Under hit three times as well. The Dbax scored just 10 runs in the four games. They’ve scored no more than two runs in 7 of the last 10 ballgames. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. On the bright side, Young has allowed three runs or less in every start. Urias held the Dbax to two runs and five hits in the earlier series. Play on UNDER AAA |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Bettors (even some sharp ones!) seem content to think that eventually a Denver game is going to go Under the total. It’s happened only one time in the bubble (out of a possible 14 games) and most of the games have gone way Over. Take this series where the six games have averaged 234.3 points/game. Yet oddsmakers keep setting low totals and bettors keep taking the bait. Not us. The only Under for the Nuggets in the bubble required an ugly 87-point effort from them. Other than that, most games have gone Over by double digits. In battling back to force this Game 7, Denver has turned in a bubble-best defensive performance two games in a row, allowing just 107 points in both wins. We don’t trust them to do so again though. Each team has a player (Utah - Mitchell, Denver - Murray) that could set a new NBA record for most points in a playoff series tonight. The Jazz have been pretty bad defensively in the bubble as well. They’ve allowed at least 110 points in all but three games. The Over is 16-5 the last 21 times the Jazz have been off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 226 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The return of Russell Westbrook led to a very easy Game 5 victory for the Rockets. They won by 34, 114-80, and can now eliminate Westbrook’s former team for good. Westbrook didn’t even do much scoring Saturday. He had just 7 pts in 23 minutes of action. James Harden scored his usual 31 while the Rockets held the Thunder to 31.5% shooting overall and a woeful 7 of 46 on 3-pt attempts. It certainly didn’t help OKC’s cause that they lost Dennis Schroeder in the second quarter to an ejection. He had 19 points at the time he was tossed. While we certainly expect the Thunder to have a better offensive showing here than they did in Game 5, it won’t be enough to send this one Over. There’s been only one game in the series that the Thunder have scored more than 108 in regulation. Even Houston has averaged “only” 113.8 points/game for the series, including the one overtime loss. OKC is 22-10 Under this season with the total at 220 points or higher. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-31-20 | Indians v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Indians have done a remarkable job at run prevention this year, leading to the Under cashing in 67% of their games (22-11-1). Not far behind in the Under department is division foe Kansas City (20-12-2 Under) and these teams open up a three-game series on Monday. Before you go thinking Under, note Cleveland did just give up seven runs yesterday in a loss to St. Louis. (The Cardinals were our 10* Game of the Month, by the way). The Tribe had also scored 14 runs of their own in a win Friday. So two of the three games in the last series did go Over. Most Royals totals are higher than this one, which explains their YTD Under mark. Don’t let a pitching matchup of Bieber vs. Keller scare you off either. Bieber’s ERA vs. KC is 4.33. Keller’s last start saw him allow 10 baserunners in only 4 innings as the Royals lost 9-3. Before losing 5-2 to the White Sox on Sunday, the Royals had scored five or more runs in four straight games. It doesn’t take much to go Over a total like this and we think the Indians and Royals will “get there.” Play on OVER AAA |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 112-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The second round of the NBA Playoffs gets underway Sunday with the Celtics taking on the Raptors. These teams have already met one time in the bubble and the result was an impressive 122-100 beatdown by the Celtics. That’s the only loss by the Raptors since the restart. They swept Brooklyn in the first round, winning three of the four games by double digits including a 150-point effort in the close out. Boston also swept its first round series as they faced an undermanned Philadelphia squad. That series was a bit tighter and certainly lower-scoring as Boston held the Sixers to 106 points or fewer in all four games. We saw what they did to Toronto, holding them to 42.7% shooting (26.3% on 3’s) back on 8.7. These are two of the top defensive teams in the league. The Raptors held the Nets under 100 points in two of the four first round games and below 40% shooting in three of the games. Not to be outdone, Boston has held seven of its last eight opponents under 43% shooting. Gordon Hayward is out for the Celtics while Kyle Lowry could miss this game for the Raptors. The longer than expected layoff should have a negative effect on all remaining shooters. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-29-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks UNDER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This series is tied 1-1 and both sides have scored five times in their respective victories. Game 1 was a 5-0 Vegas shutout, but Vancouver bounced back to win 5-2 in Game 2 and even things up. It’s time for a lower-scoring Game 3 as the Canucks got those five Game 2 goals on only 27 shots. Their shooting percentage this postseason is a crazy 11.6% and even higher (12.2%) the past five games. They’re averaging 3.2 goals per game in the playoffs on just 27.9 shot attempts. For the frame of reference, Vegas has averaged 3.7 goals on 36.3 shots per game. Both teams scoring rates are due to come down. The Under is 3-1 for the Golden Knights this postseason when the total is 6.0. No Vancouver game has had a total of 6.0 so far. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Vegas has been off a game where they allowed 5 or more goals. Don’t see either team scoring five goals in Game 3. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 236 | Top | 111-154 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Luka Doncic didn’t just play in Game 4, he dominated with an incredible stat line of 43-17-13 and hit the game winner in overtime to tie this series up at 2-2. The last three games, two of which were Dallas wins, have gone Over the total. Game 4 would have gone Over even without the extra period. The wild swings we saw in that game - with the Clippers leading by as many as 21 in the second quarter and the Mavs by as many as 12 in the third quarter - probably aren’t going to take place tonight. In fact, we’re anticipating a slightly more “defensive affair” even though the O/U line has hit the high point of the series. That’s an obvious reflection on the previous three games, but it’s also giving us some value. The Clippers are 11-3 Under this season after scoring 130 or more points in their previous game. Dallas has shot 50% or better in each of the last three games, which seems unlikely to continue given the Clippers are a solid defensive team. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-24-20 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It wasn’t a good weekend for either of these two National League Central clubs. The Reds lost three of four in St. Louis while Milwaukee got swept in Pittsburgh. The Reds have managed to score just 10 runs in the last five games and were shut out twice. The Brewers have scored all of 12 runs in their last four games. Expect this to be a low-scoring opener with Bauer pitching for Cincy. He has a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four starts, placing him among the very best starters in the league. Bauer has allowed just two runs so far and has worked 26 ⅓ innings. On August 7th, he held Milwaukee to one run and three hits in six innings and had 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts in 2020. With two struggling lineups and Bauer starting this should be quite the easy Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 222.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Neither team has shot all that well in the first two games. That has to be somewhat terrifying for the Thunder as they’re down 0-2 in this series and facing an uphill climb. We’ve had the Rockets in both games with Game 1 being our top NBA release for the month. That one saw them breeze coast to coast to a 123-108 win. Things were a bit closer in Game 2 as they only won 111-98 and it was a lot closer for much of the 4th Quarter. The Rockets only shot 41.8% and James Harden had only 21 points. We expect more offense out of Houston today. Same with Oklahoma CIty, who had only 39 points after halftime in Game 2. The Over is 9-3-1 their last 13 games after a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 218.5 | Top | 87-124 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
This is 10* on OVER People seem willing to keep trying to bet on the Nuggets’ Over streak ending. But as long as the number is this low, it won’t be happening anytime soon. In case you were unaware, Denver has gone Over in all 10 of its games inside the bubble. Most of those have gone Over by a lot. The fewest number of total points scored in a Nuggets game since the restart is 226. They have averaged 242.3 points/game. That’s with some overtime mixed in, but still there was only one game that would have stayed Under in regulation. Game 2 vs. the Jazz was a 124-105 loss. The Nuggets have now allowed at least 124 points in every game but two. Utah happens to be averaging 124.5 points/game in Orlando while at the same time giving up 120 points/game. The Jazz have shot nearly 50% overall in the two games of this series so far while the Nuggets have made more than half their three-pointers. There is no reason to believe this amount of scoring won’t continue. Denver is 10-3 Over this season off a double digit loss. Utah is 6-1 Over if they won their last game straight up as an underdog. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-18-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 102 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Angels definitely can’t be trusted to get the job done, even in this price range, but we can expect a high-scoring game against the Giants Tuesday afternoon. LA’s last five games have all gone Over with 11 or more total runs scored every time. Thus far, when they’re at home, Angels’ games have averaged 12.3 runs/game. The Giants come in having allowed 7.7 runs/game over their last seven contests, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. They are allowing 6.3 runs/game for the season. While the Angels do have their best pitcher - Dylan Bundy - going tonight, they and the Giants both have terrible bullpens. In just the last five games, the Giants’ pen has gone 0-4 with a 12.19 ERA and has given up 29 runs in 20 ⅓ innings. Angels’ relievers aren’t much better with a near identical home ERA/WHIP to what the Giants have on the road. Trevor Cahill starts today for SF. This is his 1st start of the year after a fingernail issue. Expect him to struggle. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-17-20 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. Both teams are averaging more than 5.0 runs per game. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-16-20 | Blues v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Blues have still not won a game since the restart. This is a far cry from last season’s run to the Stanley Cup when they caught fire in January and never looked back. When the season stopped, they did have the most points in the Western Conference. But by losing all three round robin games, they fell to the 4-seed for the playoffs. They’re now in an 0-2 hole to upstart Vancouver and tonight is about as “must win” as you can get from the St. Louis side of things. But not sure we can trust them in this spot given the lack of life we’ve seen so far. The Blues are averaging just 2.2 goals on 27.8 shots per game. Vancouver is averaging a similar number of shots per game (actually less, 27.2) but has somehow parlayed that into 3.5 goals per game. We don’t see St. Louis turning things around tonight (not at the offensive end at least) while Vancouver can keep up its current scoring clip. Blues are 6-1 Under on Sundays this season. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-16-20 | Stipe Miocic v. Daniel Cormier OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Push | 0 | 204 h 48 m | Show |
8* ON OVER 2.5 ROUNDS This is the rubber match for the UFC Heavyweight Championship of the World. Both have a TKO victory over the other. Miocic had the more recent of the two, thus he opened as the slight favorite here, though those odds have flipped as of press time. That fight took place almost one year ago to the day with Miocic regaining the very title he lost to Cormier back in July of ‘18 at UFC 226. Those are Stipe’s only two fights of the previous two years. Cormier has said he’s retiring, win or lose, after this fight although that’s something we’ve heard from him before. The first fight between the two saw Cormier end things in Round 1. The rematch went to the 4th round. Before losing the title back to Miocic, Cormier did have a successful title defense in November of 2018 against Derrick Lewis, which he won via rear-naked choke in Round 2. What’s amazing about the first two fights is neither has been able to execute more than one successful takedown. That being said, all we need here is the fight to make it past the halfway mark of Round 2 and we think that’s going to happen. Two of Miocic’s last three fights made it to the “Championship Rounds.” Meanwhile, five of Cormier’s last eight have gotten to the point that would be a winning ticket here. 8* on OVER 2.5 ROUNDS AAA |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies v. Blazers OVER 232.5 | Top | 122-126 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER If Portland wins Saturday, then they move on and face the Lakers in the 1st round. If Memphis wins, then there’s another game tomorrow and the Grizzlies have to win that one too (to earn their shot at the Lakers). Memphis should (theoretically) be the more motivated side Saturday, but they are short-handed (no Jaren Jackson) and quite frankly haven’t played very well in the bubble (2-6 straight up and against the spread). The Trail Blazers have gone 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS and that’s how they passed Memphis for the 8th seed. We’re passing on the side in this one, but like the total as we figure there continues to be plenty of scoring as long as Damian Lillard and the Blazers are involved. Portland’s last five games have AVERAGED more than 250 total points. Lillard has scored more than 150 himself in the last three, which is obviously insane. The team is also very bad defensively as it has allowed more than 130 points in back to back games. These teams played to a 140-135 final (won by Portland) in the first game after the restart. While there was overtime, it was still 124-124 at the end of regulation. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-14-20 | Islanders v. Capitals OVER 5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Washington can’t like the way this series started. A 4-2 loss to the Islanders in Game 1 saw them give up all four goals in the span of 13 minutes as their own early 2-0 lead quickly went away. The loss was also the third in four games for the Capitals since the restart. Their only win was the final round robin game (vs. Boston) which kept them out of the 4-seed. New York is 4-1 and getting some surprising scoring punch with four or more goals scored in three of the past four games. The Isles didn’t have much trouble with the overmatched Panthers in the qualification round. Here, as falling into the early two-goal deficit should tell you, they will face more firepower. Washington’s offense has really yet to get going here in Toronto, but we feel it's only a matter of time. They average 3.4 goals per game for the year. The Over is 5-2 the last seven times these division foes have met. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-14-20 | Thunder v. Clippers UNDER 222.5 | Top | 103-107 | Win | 102 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER There’s really nothing to play for here unless you consider Oklahoma City’s official seeding for the playoffs. That really doesn’t matter though as they’re going to play Houston in the 1st round and with home court advantage not a factor, being the 4 or 5 seed is of no real importance. The Clippers are the 2-seed in the West and locked into a first round matchup with the Mavericks. They are 4-3 in the bubble after a 124-111 win over Denver Wednesday night secured them the 2-seed. The Thunder are also 4-3 and off a win as their reserves rallied from a 22-point deficit to beat Miami two days ago. All stars are going to sit this finale out. Interesting that the Clippers past five games have all gone Over, averaging 238.4 points/game. This is a much different kind of game though with nothing on the line and starters not playing. The Clippers have also faced some of the worst defensive teams here in the bubble. Oklahoma City is generally pretty good defensively. At the same time, it has shot just 42.1% the L5 games. Under is 44-19-1 the L64 games the Thunder have been underdogs. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-14-20 | Canadiens v. Flyers OVER 5 | Top | 5-0 | Push | 0 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Game 1 went to overtime. While Philadelphia won 2-1, it was also a win for us as we had Montreal +1.5. The win not only put the Flyers up in this series but also kept them perfect since the restart. They’re 4-0 and have allowed one goal in every game. Montreal, a 12-seed that should feel fortunate to even be here, did eliminate a talented Pittsburgh team (that was at full strength) in just four games in the qualification round. Philly has been the hottest team in the league since January 8th and has won 13 of its last 14 games. We are looking for Game 2 to go Over the total. The teams came into this series having gone a combined 0 for 23 on the power play, since the restart. Both scored a goal with the man advantage in Game 1, a good sign. Yes, the Canadiens have Carey Price. But is his .945 save percentage in the bubble sustainable? Probably not! Flyers goalie Carter Hart has a .966 save percentage here in Toronto. That’s definitely not sustainable! The Over is 4-1 for Philly following the last five times they were held to two goals or less. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-13-20 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 227 | Top | 127-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER It was a disappointing run in the bubble for New Orleans. A team that was “supposed” to force its way into a play-in series instead was eliminated from contention rather quickly. Zion Williamson’s minutes have been limited and as a result the Pelicans are only 2-5 SU. Orlando has made the playoffs. They will be the 8-seed in the Eastern Conference and face Milwaukee in the 1st round. Their only goal for this game is to stay healthy. Three of their top four scorers sat out Tuesday’s 106-98 loss vs. Brooklyn and that will again be the case tonight. But don’t be surprised if those who do take the floor for the Magic “let it fly” in what should turn into a “up and down” game between backups. New Orleans won’t play Williamson or Brandon Ingram as well as several other starters. A problem all year for the Pelicans has been their horrible defense and that’s with their better players suiting up. Orlando is 11-3 Over its last 14 vs. teams that have a losing record. There is no reason to believe there will be any semblance of defense in this game. Play on OVER. AAA |
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08-13-20 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Nationals and Mets face off early Thursday afternoon in what will be the finale of a four-game series. Washington won the first two games, 16-4 and 2-1, but yesterday was New York’s turn to put some runs on the board as they took home an 11-6 ‘W.’ There were seven total runs scored in the first inning of last night’s game, three by the visitors and four more by the home team. We look for more of a “pitcher’s duel” today. The Nats numbers against lefties are BAD as they are hitting just .207 in games where they face a starter that’s a southpaw and averaging 1.9 runs/game. Here they are up against David Peterson whose three starts have been respectable to the tune of a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. At the same time, the Mets offensive numbers are bad. They came into yesterday scoring only 3.2 runs/game at home. Austin Voth has two solid efforts under his belt for Washington as he’s allowed only three runs in 10 innings. Both starts stayed Under the total. In six of their last 11 games, the Nationals have scored three runs or fewer. Same for the Mets. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-13-20 | Wizards v. Celtics UNDER 229.5 | Top | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Only pride will be on the line here as Boston looks to avoid injury and Washington looks to avoid going winless in the bubble. Admittedly, the Wizards had only a small chance of making the playoffs when they got the invite to Orlando. Not having Bradley Beal made those chances even smaller. They’ve gone 0-7 SU here, covering just one game and it was as a 10.5 point underdog in a 9-pont loss. Five of the Wizards losses have been by at least 11 points. The Celtics are locked into the 3-seed and what is looking like a favorable first round matchup with the 76ers. Do not expect their key contributors to play long, if they play much at all. Last time these teams played, the Wizards actually won a low-scoring 99-94 game. The time before that was 140-133 Boston, but that was with the Wiz getting 44 from Beal. Washington has shot very poorly during their time in the bubble and whomever the Celtics decide to trot out for this meaningless finale likely won’t be sharpshooters either. Play on UNDER AAA |