Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-08-18 | Rockets v. Mavs +3 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* Dallas (6:05 ET): At this point, I think it's safe to say "Houston, we have a problem" as the Rockets continue to struggle at the outset of the 2018-19 season. Thursday's 27-point loss in Utah marked not only the second straight game where the team failed to score 100 points, but it was also their sixth loss in the last eight games overall. They've been even worse at the pay window recently, going 2-7 ATS their L9. Tonight, they're matched up w/ a Dallas team that has been absolutely sensational at home this year (10-2 SU AND ATS), yet still laying points. I'll go w/ the Mavs as home underdogs in this one as they recently beat the Rockets - in Houston - by 20 pts. That 20 pt win in H-town saw Dallas shoot a blistering 54.1% for the game, including 17 of 34 three-pointers. They scored 74 pts in the 1H and it was never close after that. As you can probably tell, this is a much improved team this year after the 24-win disaster of a season ago. They are already half way to that win total this year and we've played only a quarter of the games. The team is coming off their own blowout loss (26 pts), to New Orleans, but that was on the road where the improvement hasn't really translated. At home, they've won eight in a row, beating the likes of Oklahoma City, Golden State, Boston, the Clippers and Portland. They average 115.2 PPG here. Meanwhile, a Houston team that led the league w/ 65 regular season wins last year has fallen off rather dramatically. They've been held under 100 pts seven times, which is more than double the number of times that happened over the course of 82 games LY. James Harden & Chris Paul went a combined 10 for 27 against Utah and the supporting cast simply is not as strong this year. Right now, the Rockets are one of only four teams in the Western Conference that have been outscored on the season. That puts them in a rather precarious position as the only team below them in the standings is Phoenix! The Rockets have not fared well on the road this year, going just 5-9 ATS, including 3-6 as the favorite. They're also 2-7 ATS after allowing 115+ pts in their last game. 10* Dallas |
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12-08-18 | Loyola-Chicago +9.5 v. Maryland | Top | 41-55 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
10* Loyola Chi (4:00 ET): With all due respect to Sister Jean, we all knew Loyola Chicago would take a step back this year. I mean, how could they not after that incredible Final Four run last March? The Ramblers went an amazing 32-6 SU last season en route to San Antonio, but knew they wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone this year and have already dropped four games. One of them, I was against them in what was a huge revenge game for their opponent (Nevada). The Ramblers now come into this game as losers of three of their last four, having lost outright as a 5-pt home favorite to Ball State on Wednesday. Maryland is one of EIGHT Big 10 teams currently ranked in the top 25. That conference is absolutely loaded this year as there's a 9th team - Indiana - probably worthy of Top 25 consideration as well. While I just said that Loyola Chi "wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone" this year, don't be surprised if the Terps aren't taking them as seriously as they should. Maryland is coming off a series of high-profile games, all of them going down to the wire, and may not have as much "left in the tank" as they'd like. They just lost at Purdue on Thursday by two. It was their second loss in three games as they fell by five to Virginia as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. This is a young team. Seven of the top eight players in the rotation are either freshman or sophomores. Note this is technically a neutral site game, taking place in Baltimore. I think that's a big break for Loyola not having to go into College Park. As for those eight ranked Big 10 teams, I happen to think Maryland is the weakest of the lot and probably shouldn't even be ranked. Missing eight of its final nine shots, the Terps shot less than 30% in the second half vs. Purdue and that loss will be hard to shake. Meanwhile, Loyola is an underdog for only the 2nd time this year (first was vs. Nevada) and should be motivated back in a more comfortable role. Ball State shot 57% against them, which isn't happening again here. The Ramblers are 15-7 ATS when taking points the L3 seasons. They are also 4-2 SU L6 vs. the Top 25 and 10-2 SU L12 on a neutral court. Take the points. 10* Loyola Chi |
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12-06-18 | Pepperdine v. UC Riverside +7.5 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): UC Riverside isn't having the best start to the season (just 2-7 SU). But here's the thing: that was to be expected. They haven't been favored in a single game and they've played just twice at home. Once was a win against non-DI team UC Merced. The other was a 10-pt loss to Cal Baptist. The Highlanders' only other win was an upset (as 5.5-pt dogs) of Elon in a Holiday Tournament. They're finally back home Thursday, hosting a Pepperdine team that is laying WAY too many points considering they aren't very good either. Take the points in this one. The Waves of Pepperdine do own a mark of 5-1 ATS. They're also 5-3 straight up. But they just dropped a non-lined game to CS-Northridge, at home, 90-83. Pepperdine blew a double-digit lead as defense continues to be a problem for them. They're allowing 77.6 PPG so far, which is just awful, and one of their wins (Miami OH) saw them miraculously rally back from an 18-point deficit in the second half to win 88-80. Something that you may not be aware of is that the Waves won all of six games LY. So Lorenzo Romar has the program at least pointed in the right direction in his second stint coaching the team. But this is just the second "true" road game for the Waves w/ the first being an 88-80 loss to Northern Colorado. It'll also mark the first time they've been a "true" road favorite since the 2015-16 season! They've won a total of just 15 games the past two seasons and are 1-27 SU their last 28 road games! So you can see where I'd be of the belief that this is far too many points for them to lay. UC Riverside isn't exactly Duke, but they are sufficient enough to cover this generous spread. The Highlanders also have revenge here for an 11-pt loss LY at Pepperdine where the Waves took and made 13 more free throws. Pepperdine does deserve to be favored here, but not by this much. 10* UC Riverside |
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12-05-18 | Nebraska -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): I'm alot higher on this Cornhuskers team than most people. They finally cracked the Top 25 this week, but probably should be a lot higher. They're 7-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to a very good Texas Tech team, at a neutral site, on a poor shooting night. I took them when they went to Clemson and won as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. They followed that up by beating Illinois 75-60 in the Big 10 opener. They jumped all over the Illini, racing out to a 13-2 lead and never trailed. They never led by less than nine points the entire second half. The biggest key was the frequency w/ which they got to the FT line. They went 25 of 30 from the line for the game. For the year, Nebraska is now outscoring teams by 23.8 points per game. Minnesota is a team I faded in their Big 10 opener. The Gophers had to go to Columbus to face Ohio State and lost 79-59. The game played out similarly to Nebraska-Illinois, only w/ the Gophers playing the role of the Illini. The score was 26-7 a little over 10 minutes in and never really got close after that. Perhaps the most incredible thing of all is that Minnesota missed all 13 three-point attempts it took. At home, that's highly unlikely to be repeated, but note Nebraska can be just as effective defensively as Ohio State. In fact, the Cornuskers rank slightly higher than the Buckeyes in defensive efficiency (17th vs. 21st) and scoring (4th vs. 17th). Nebraska is 6-1-1 ATS on the season. Thus, you'd think they'd carry more respect in the marketplace. Yet they're only a small favorite against an inferior foe that just got blown out. I realize it's a "true" road game, in conference, but the Cornhuskers already went to Clemson (ranked at the time) and won. Minnesota has been dreadful in its two road games while going 6-0 SU at home or neutral sites. But even the home court can't save them here as Nebraska will own a substantial edge on the glass and their smothering defense figures to turn the Gophers over w/ great regularity. Something to keep in mind is that the 'Huskers won here LY, 91-85 as a 3.5-pt dog. 10* Nebraska |
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12-05-18 | Nuggets v. Magic +5 | Top | 124-118 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Something is going to have to give in this battle of hot teams. Denver just might be the best team in the West right now as they've won and covered six straight, many of them against top tier teams. They just beat Toronto, on the road, 106-103 as seven-point underdogs. Not to be outdone, Orlando has been on quite the ATS role itself. Last night's outright win in Miami puts them at 11-1-1 ATS their L13 games. They are 8-5 straight up during that same stretch. Coincidentally, the only game they lost ATS was against Denver back on November 23rd. That was the start of the six-game road trip that just concluded last night. I look for a much better result in tonight's rematch as the Magic are back home. Take the points. Even in a weak Eastern Conference, Orlando has not made the playoffs since Dwight Howard left town. That's a long time. It's been six years and only Sacramento and Phoenix have longer active droughts. But w/ LeBron James out West, the East is more wide open this year and the Magic have a legit shot at finishing in the top eight. Last night's win got them to .500 and they're currently in seventh place (actually lead the Southeast Division!). They beat the Heat by allowing just 90 points, their second straight strong defensive performance, although the other one was against a short-handed and downtrodden Suns team. It also helped they shot 50% from three-point range last night. For a third time, they turned in a quarter w/ a point differential of +18 or better. Denver obviously presents a greater challenge. The Nuggets have won and covered the L5 meetings w/ the Magic, including the 25-point beatdown in the Mile High City two weeks ago. That game was relatively close until the 4th quarter. But this one occurs smack dab in the middle of a five-game road trip for the Nuggets. While they have been on a roll, do note that four of the six wins in this Denver win streak have come by single digits and 6 of the team's 16 wins this season have been by five points or fewer. Also, they won't have leading scorer Gary Harris Jr in the lineup tonight as he left the Toronto game Monday w/ a hip injury. Though they failed to cover against Denver the first time, Orlando is 12-5 ATS as an underdog this season otherwise. All signs point to this rematch being a lot closer w/ the Magic having a great shot at pulling the outright upset. 8* Orlando |
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12-04-18 | Northeastern +11 v. Syracuse | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
8* Northeastern (6:45 ET): N'eastern might be down some bodies, but give the Huskies a ton of credit for still competing. They're actually missing three starters from LY's team, not because of graduation mind you, but rather due to injuries. This includes their top two scorers, Vasa Pusica and Shawn Occeus. You'd think that they'd be struggling in light of this rash of injuries, but instead they're off B2B wins, both coming by double digits! They won at Bucknell by 18 on November 28th, then returned home to down Eastern Michigan by 14 on Saturday. The task will obviously be far greater tonight in the Carrier Dome, but Northeastern is getting too many points here. Syracuse is 5-2 SU. Given "brand recognition," it's not a surprise they drew votes for the latest Top 25 poll, though they didn't quite make it in. I don't think they belong there anyway, even though they did go to Ohio State and record an impressive 72-62 road win last week (part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge). That was followed up w/ a 63-55 win against Cornell over the weekend. But be wary of the Orange in this spot as they have a lookahead to long-time rival Georgetown this weekend. That game has always carried significant meaning throughout the tenure of Jim Boeheim, who is now in his 42nd year at the helm (incredible!). Also, last week's efforts were not exactly indicative of what we saw from this team in the first four games, which included losses to both UConn and Oregon. Syracuse came nowhere close to covering the 21.5-pt spread against Cornell on Saturday. They are now just 2-4 ATS as favorites. Now, one of Boeheim's sons plays for Cornell (the other plays for him!), so you could argue the coach may have taken it easy. I don't think that's the case, however. The 'Cuse shot 50% overall for the game, yet still couldn't manage to pull away. Normally, this is not a great shooting team. They are just 41.9% overall for the year, including a woeful 29.1% from 3-pt range. Meanwhile, six of Northeastern's top seven scorers can shoot the three and they are 41.1% from behind the arc. Three-point shooting can play a huge role w/ a double digit spread and I think the underdog easily stays within the number here. 8* Northeastern |
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12-02-18 | Minnesota v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 59-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The mood this morning in Columbus may be one of resignation as the fate of Ohio State's football program seems destined NOT for the College Football playoff. But the Buckeyes' basketball program, not bad in its own right, can certainly lift the campus' spirits w/ a big win tonight. Over the last week, you may have heard about the NCAA's much maligned new rating system, NET (replacing RPI), which had Ohio State as the #1 team in the land. That ranking was met w/ almost universal mockery and it certainly didn't help that the Buckeyes lost their first game after the rankings were released. Wednesday, here in Columbus, they went down to Syracuse 72-62 as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. But foolish rankings aside, OSU remains a strong team ready to do damage as Big 10 play gets underway Sunday. I'll lay the points here. The Buckeyes started the season 6-0 w/ a couple of impressive road wins over Cincinnati and Creighton. Considering Creighton just took #1 Gonzaga to the limit yday (led by double digits) and Cincy's rep, there's no denying those are two quality wins. Against Syracuse, a good team, things kind of fell apart in the second half. The Orange finished the game at 46% from three-point range (11 of 24), a far cry from what previous Buckeyes' opponents had shot from behind the arc. Consider that - for the season - OSU is still allowing only 28.7% shooting from three-point range. So we'll just consider what the 'Cuse did to be an aberration. It was also the just the school's ninth loss in the L42 home games. Minnesota also comes in at 6-1 SU on the year. The Golden Gophers lost their Big 10-ACC Challenge game, 68-56 at Boston College, which was their first and only "true" road game thus far. They've also played a game since, vs. Oklahoma State, which they won 83-76. But might that extra game be a "detriment" when it comes to preparing for this Big 10 opener? I think it may. Ohio State has been off since Wednesday while its just a 48-hour turnaround for the Gophers. Minny played OK State at U.S. Bank Stadium (home of the NFL's Vikings) and caught a break w/ their opponent going just 12 of 24 from the FT line. They still allowed the Pokes to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range, which could be a problem here. In that one "true" road game so far, the Gophers shot a horrific 29.2% from the field. They've played a challenging schedule, but figure to come up short again here. 8* Ohio State |
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12-01-18 | Raptors v. Cavs +13.5 | Top | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference spectrum meet tonight in Cleveland. The Raptors lead the East w/ a 19-4 SU record (best in the league) after beating Golden State Thursday night. The Cavs are now 4-17 SU after losing big (128-95) in Boston last night. Things have come full circle here as these teams opened the season against one another w/ Toronto winning 116-104. They just missed out on the cover as 12.5-pt chalk. While things went south in Cleveland in hurry, post-LeBron, I don't think the Cavs deserve to be this large an underdog tonight. Take the points. Last week, the Cavs were kind to me, cashing two different times as a premium release. Most impressive of all is that they covered both games wire to wire for the full 96 minutes. One was the heavily-hyped game vs. LeBron and the Lakers. The other was vs. Houston, which was an outright upset as a 10-point dog. Both games were at home. This number is even larger. Granted, that's because the Raptors are a stronger foe, but it's still an overlay. Cleveland has been far more competitive at home this year as opposed to the road where they're just 1-10 SU. The last time they dropped a game by double digits here at the Quicken Loans Arena was November 1st. With LeBron on its roster, Cleveland was a long-time nemesis for Toronto, so expect no sympathy from the favorite tonight. Still, the number is just too large. The Raptors have won seven in a row, the win over Golden State arguably being the high point of the season so far. So don't be surprised if the Raptors take the Cavs a little lightly here. After all, they've already beaten them once. That was that game where they were going to take out any remaining angst against the post-LeBron Cavaliers. Being a road favorite of more than 12.5 points is almost unprecedented for Toronto. They're 0-2 ATS in the role all-time. On the flip side, the Cavs are 2-0 ATS as home dogs of 12.5 or more. 10* Cleveland |
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12-01-18 | Butler -3.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 52-64 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
10* Butler (5:00 ET): We'll probably always associate Butler w/ the back to back runs to the National Title Game under former HC Brad Stevens in 2010-11. But, seven years later, the program remains quite strong. I believe the Bulldogs are worthy of Top 25 consideration right now as they've started 5-1 SU w/ a win over Florida last week. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Round of 32 in LY's NCAA Tournament where it bowed out to second-seeded Purdue by just two points. Today is their first "true" road game of the season and we find them only laying a small number to a St. Louis squad it defeated by 30 points last year. I realize it's now a road game, but Butler should handle its business w/ relative ease Saturday. Lay the points. Butler had been favored in all of its games before facing Florida (pick 'em). They did drop a disappointing decision to Dayton, 69-64 as seven-point chalk, back on November 21st. But they quickly responded w/ a 31-point win over Middle Tennessee, then came the big win over Florida. All those games took place down in Atlantis. It was an off-shooting night in the loss to Dayton, but a much different story vs. MTSU. Against Florida, it was a dominant 2nd half w/ the Bulldogs shooting 50% from the floor while "tightening the screws" on the Gators, holding them to just 29% overall, including 1 of 12 on three-point attempts. Butler is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency right now and a solid 41st defensively, per KenPom. St. Louis has the same 5-1 SU record as Butler, so it's a little surprising that they're only 1-5 ATS. Then again, they've been double digit favorites in four of the ATS losses and gone 0-4 vs. the number. That tells me that this is not a dominant team, even against lesser competition. The Billikens do hold an upset over Seton Hall, on the road, a rare instance of the visitor drastically outshooting its host from behind the arc. But they followed that up w/ an outright loss to Pitt (as a 4-pt favorite) in yet another hard-fought game that was decided by just two points. Last weekend, they beat Central Arkansas by only 12 points. A St. Louis team that ranks 137th in offensive efficiency is going to have issues scoring today and I just don't see them keeping up w/ their sharpshooting opponent. 10* Butler |
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12-01-18 | Kansas State v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
8* Marquette (2:30 ET): As we continue to look to "pick off" teams from the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens, Kansas State will be our next target. The 6-0 Wildcats certainly aren't a fraudulent team by any means, but they're certainly overrated at #12 in the polls. Despite that ranking, they check in as slight underdogs on Saturday to an unranked Marquette team. This is the oddsmakers essentially "tipping their hand" and I'll call for the Wildcats to fall for the 1st time this season. This will be their first "true" road game and despite winning the Paradise Jam, it's hardly been a daunting schedule thus far for Bruce Weber's team. Meanwhile, Marquette won't be intimidated here having already faced the likes of Indiana, Kansas & Louisville. Lay the short number here. Marquette played two of those three teams tough, even beating Louisville (who just upset Michigan State) in overtime. That came two days after losing to Kansas 77-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. Both those games came at a neutral setting (New York City) as part of the NIT Tipoff. The only game the Golden Eagles played poorly this year was when they traveled to Indiana for their lone "true" road game to date. After "upsetting" L'ville (actually favored), Marquette returned home to play Charleston Southern on Tuesday. They won that game easily, 76-55 as 18.5-pt chalk. It was the fourth time this season the Golden Eagles held an opponent below 60 points. The fact that this team was favored over Louisville I think is pretty instructive as to the caliber of team we're getting here. If Marquette does struggle in one area, it's taking care of the basketball. They've turned it over on 20% of their possessions this year and I can see where that would be a problem vs. a team like Kansas State. But, at home, I suspect protecting the basketball will be priority #1. Remember that KSU has not had to play in a hostile environment all year. Marquette is 31-10 SU its last 41 home games and is #26 nationally in offensive efficiency. Aside from the Indiana game, they've played good defense as well. In four home games, they've allowed just 52.5 PPG. No one is going undefeated this season and for Kansas State, they'll taste defeat for the first time Saturday afternoon. 8* Marquette |
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11-30-18 | Wisconsin -1 v. Iowa | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): There were still 18 teams without a loss in College Basketball entering yday. We targeted one of them, Sacramento State, who happened to be the weakest of the lot. They went down pretty easily (75-58), leaving us w/ 17 teams still w/ a "0" in the loss column. It's very likely that most of these teams are going to suffer that first loss soon, so I'd make a note of who's on "the list." Now the "elite" teams are less likely to lose, but those not defined by that label are easy targets. Such as this Iowa team I'll be playing against tonight. The Hawkeyes were lucky to escape at home vs. Pitt Tuesday, winning by just a single point as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge (which ended in a 7-7 tie). Wisconsin was similarly fortunate to win its game, but as the oddsmakers are clearly letting you know here, they're the better team. Not all unbeaten records are created equal and in this case of Iowa, it's been a pretty weak slate of opponents thus far. They did beat Oregon (ranked #13 at the time) in the semis of the 2K Classic on what was a cold-shooting night for the Ducks. The Hawkeyes have yet to play a "true" road game, something that will change next week when they visit East Lansing to play Michigan State. So we're probably going to learn a lot about this Hawkeyes team in the next two games. What we do know is they allowed Pitt to shoot a stunning 61.3% from the floor in the 1H Tuesday. They put the clamps down in the 2H, allowing just 22 pts and rallying back from a seven-point deficit at the break. Tonight will be Iowa's toughest test to date. Wisconsin has played three straight top 40 teams, all of whom I'd say are at least at the level - if not better - than the Oregon team that constitutes Iowa's best win. The Badgers have had to face Oklahoma, Virginia and NC State in the last week, losing only to Virginia, who is a top five team. They lost 53-46 to the Hoos and seemed poised to be headed for a second straight defeat on Tuesday, before rallying late to get by previously unbeaten NC State. Like Iowa, the Badgers trailed by seven at the half - at home. But a 50-pt 2H saved them and now they can knock off a second straight unbeaten opponent. This is a double revenge spot for Wisconsin too as they're 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Hawkeyes the L2 seasons, including an 18-pt loss here in Iowa City LY. But remember that was one of the weakest Badgers' teams in recent memory (missed NCAA Tournament for first time in 19 years) and they're much improved for 2018-19, led by one of the top players in the country, Ethan Happ. I haven't even mentioned yet that due to injuries, Iowa is down to just nine scholarship players! Their unbeaten run ends tonight. 10* Wisconsin |
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11-29-18 | CS Sacramento v. UC-Santa Barbara -8 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Entering play on Thursday, there are still 18 unbeaten teams in College Hoops. Of those 18, Sacramento State is definitely the weakest and also happens to have the fewest number of wins (3). It's only inevitable that the Hornets drop a game and tonight appears to be the night as they visit an old "friend" of mine in UCSB. The Gauchos came through for me, big-time, in their season opener. They walloped a bad Wyoming team 76-66 in Laramie and are now 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS on the year and enter tonight on a three-game win streak. There is some question over whether or not G Max Heidegger plays here (concussion), but his status has been upgraded and I actually don't think the Gauchos even need him to cover this spread. Lay the points. I mentioned earlier that Sacramento State has played only three games. Two of the wins have been by five points or less, one of them coming in OT, and the other was over a NAIA school. So, yes, it's not a stretch to call this the weakest of the remaining unbeaten teams in the country - by a pretty substantial margin. One player (Marcus Graves) is carrying the Hornets right now. He's posted a triple-double (season opener) and made the game-winner in a 58-55 win over UC Davis on November 20th. Saturday vs. Cal State Fullerton, the Hornets did lead by as many as 18 pts in the 2H, but needed OT - plus 22-12-8 from Graves - to get the win. The Hornets were slight underdogs in the last two games and tonight is their 1st "true" roadie of 2018-19. UCSB beat Sacramento State last year, on the road, 82-72 as an 8.5-pt favorite. A year later, the spread is roughly the same, even a little lower, at home. So I see value on a side that has won four straight while covering the three lined contests. Saturday against Idaho, UCSB didn't even shoot that well (36.7%), yet still won comfortably due to another outstanding effort on the defensive end. Thus far, the Gauchos have held their opponents to a ridiculous 35.6% from the floor, including just 22% from three-point range. They've played only two home games and won them by a combined 75 points. In addition to playing on this team at Wyoming, I also won w/ them in the last home game (vs. Montana State). They've been able to win w/o Heidegger before and would be able to do so again tonight. Sacramento State is way overvalued due to the "0" in the loss column. 10* Cal Santa Barbara |
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11-28-18 | North Carolina +3 v. Michigan | Top | 67-84 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (9:30 ET): Whenever I see these two teams matched up, I automatically think of the famous 1993 Title Game where Chris Webber called that infamous timeout he didn't have, costing Michigan a National Championship. That loss is one of four Title Game losses for the Wolverines in the last 26 years, the most recent coming last March to Villanova. But the Maize and Blue seem pretty determined to finally cut down the nets this year, starting 6-0 SU and they've already exacted revenge over 'Nova in a stunning 73-46 beatdown that took place IN PHILLY. But this game vs. North Carolina, part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge, is Michigan's toughest to date. At the start of the season, I don't think many would have expected the Wolverines to be favored in this spot, even in Ann Arbor. UNC is still the better team IMO and I'll gladly take the points. The ACC has typically owned this annual event with their Big 10 counterparts. Last year, they won 11 of the 14 games. So far this year, things have been a lot more even at four wins apiece. But all four wins by the Big 10 have been by four points or less, three of them by two pts or less, which is really incredible when you think about it. Overall, this has been a very tightly contested event as the ACC pulled out a couple close ones itself last night w/ Notre Dame beating Illinois 76-74 and Louisville upsetting #9 Michigan State in overtime. Of course, the majority of these results don't have a huge bearing on our play tonight, but I do think they're instructive as to how valuable taking points w/ the ACC side is. Especially when it's North Carolina, who is rarely an underdog and still #2 overall in my own personal power ratings (behind only Duke). The Tar Heels did drop a game last week, losing to Texas 92-89 as nine-point chalk. Sadly, I had the Heels in that one as the allowed the Longhorns to shoot the lights out in Vegas. Coby White did have 33 points for UNC, the most by any freshman since Harrison Barnes went for 40 back in 2011. The team did bounce back in the consolation game vs. UCLA, winning 94-78. The Heels have now scored at least 89 points in six straight games. This should be a fascinating battle between the #4 offensive team in the country (UNC) against the top defensive team (Michigan). But at the end of the day, North Carolina is way underrated at #11 in the Top 25. They are the better team here. 8* North Carolina |
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11-28-18 | Knicks +12.5 v. 76ers | Top | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* New York (7:05 ET): The Knicks played last night and lost 115-108 to the Pistons. But they did cover (were +7.5), which makes it 5 straight ATS wins for this moribund franchise. They'd actually pulled three consecutive upsets prior to last night, beating Boston, New Orleans and Memphis. So even though this is the second night of a back to back (and third road game in four nights), there's no reason NY can't compete here against a Philly side that has consistently been overvalued in the early going this season. The Sixers have failed to cover each of their last four games, including an outright loss here at home to Cleveland last week as 13-pt favorites. I'm taking the points. After suffering that embarrassing loss to Cleveland last week, the Sixers were able to bounce back w/ a win in Brooklyn on Sunday. But the win came by only two points as they trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. In fact, they needed 38 4Q points to overcome the deficit they were facing (trailed by as many as 20 pts) as the Nets shot an incredible 57 percent from the floor in that game, including 46% from three-point range. I don't expect the Knicks to shoot that well tonight, but they shouldn't have to in order to gain the cover. The Sixers have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been a DD favorite. They're also 1-8 ATS this season after scoring 115+ points in the previous game. I know that the Sixers are 10-1 SU at home (just 4-7 SU on the road) and itching to play after losing their last time here to Cleveland. But falling into that 20-pt hole against Brooklyn shows me this team still has much to work on. Defensively, they've really begun to slip, giving up an average of 119.8 points the L5 games. They're actually averaging the same number of PPG that they allow for the season. So, because they're at home and the Knicks played last night, the Sixers look to be really overvalued in this spot. I know NY fell behind pretty big itself last night. But a variety of players are actually contributing now and that helps alleviate playing w/o rest. The Knicks are 9-6 ATS when taking points this year. 10* New York |
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11-28-18 | Richmond +13 v. Georgetown | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Georgetown looks to be way overvalued in this spot, which seems odd given that they've failed to cover the number in five of their first six games. Now they've won five of the six games straight up, but only one by double digits and that was the first game vs. MD-Eastern Shore (68-53) where they were 30.5-pt favorites. After a Jamaican trip that saw them lose to Loyola Marymount and then barely squeak by USF (needed OT), the Hoyas returned home over the weekend and again played a close game, this time beating Campbell by only eight points. They did lead by as many as 22, but that advantage had shrunk to as few as 4 pts in the final minute. Richmond is having a bit of a disappointing start to the season. The Spiders are 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS and enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak. Two of the losses were blowouts. Down in Ft. Myers, they lost by 16 to Loyola Chicago, then followed that up by blowing a late lead against Wyoming. A return home over the weekend seemed like it would get this team back on track, but instead they lost outright to Hampton, 86-66, as 11-point favorites. That huge misfire has obviously influenced tonight's spread pretty severely and I think we're getting a ton of value (at least several points) w/ the dog here. Richmond led Wyoming by as many as 11 in the second half before blowing the game and losing by two. I suspect the disappointment of that result contributed to what we saw Sunday against Hampton as the Spiders fell behind 18-4 and never led. Richmond has been favored in five of their six games, so the fact that they're 2-4 SU has to be viewed as a massive disappointment. But here's where they can at least gain some confidence by standing toe to toe w/ a "better-known" school. Richmond has revenge for a 6-pt home loss to G'town last year where the Hoyas shot the lights out (53.2% for the game). Even though the rematch is in D.C., I don't envision the Hoyas shooting that well again. The Spiders did lose third leading scorer Nick Sherod in the last game, but the team is almost guaranteed to improve its three-point shooting (went 3 of 21 vs. Hampton) even w/o him. Take the points. 10* Richmond |
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11-27-18 | Nevada -5.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 79-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Nevada (9:00 ET): This is a colossal revenge game for the 5th ranked team in the country. As soon I saw this matchup for Tuesday, I instantly went back to last March when these teams met in the Sweet 16. Nevada, the 7-seed, led by as many as 12 early, but could not hold the lead and eventually found itself down double digits in the 2H. The final score was 69-68 as Loyola-Chicago would go on to make an improbable Final Four run. It's been awhile, so I can only assume my analysis of that game is long since forgotten. I'll briefly rehash here by reminding you I was on Loyola (+1.5) as Nevada's poor defensive efficiency stuck out like a "sore thumb" last year. But the Wolf Pack are much improved in that area this year, not to mention #1 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). Playing for major revenge, I'll lay the points w/ Nevada in this rematch. For some, it will probably take some getting used to seeing Nevada so high in the national rankings. I'm here to say "get used to it." As it stands now, I have the Wolf Pack set to win more games this year than any other team in the country besides Gonzaga. (BTW, shame on the Pac 12 for not even having a team in the discussion for superiority out West). As I said earlier, this is the top offensive team in the country right now as they average 92.0 PPG and have won all six games by double digits. They just dropped 110 pts on UMass in the Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational on Friday, shooting an incredible 67.4% from two-point range while also making 11 of 22 three-pointers. This team is as deep as any in the country right now. But the big difference between this Nevada team and last year is the defensive end of the floor. This year, they are allowing just under 70 PPG and rank a respectable 48th in defensive efficiency and are holding opponents to just 22.8% shooting from three-point range, which is key. Back in March, they allowed Loyola to shoot 55% for the game. That won't be happening again. The Ramblers aren't as strong a team this year as they lost three starters from the Final Four squad and have not played the most challenging of schedules either. Not only did they just lose to Boston College in Fort Myers, earlier in the year they dropped a home game to Furman. Nevada will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date. While the Wolf Pack don't force a lot of turnovers defensively, that issue is mitigated by them not turning it over much themselves and defending the 3-pt line well. 10* Nevada |
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11-27-18 | Virginia Tech -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): Last night, I won w/ a road team (Nebraska) that I thought should be favored in this Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Tonight, the road team I like is favored, only it's not by nearly enough. I'm also pivoting to the ACC school here as Va Tech comes in unbeaten and ranked #13 in the country. I suspect that many are suspicious of the Hokies, given we're not used to seeing them among the "blue bloods" of the sport. But Buzz Williams' team is most definitely "for real" as they've covered all five games so far and rank 7th nationally in offensive efficiency. I'll gladly lay the short number on the road here. Penn State has already dropped a couple of games, admittedly both of them very close decisions. They lost by two @ DePaul and by three to Bradley on a neutral court. Still, those results don't exactly bode well when getting set to face the #13 team in the country. Against Bradley, junior Lamar Stevens led the way w/ 27 points, his 5th consecutive 20+ pt effort. However, he got little help from his teammates, who combined to score just 29 points on 10 of 39 shooting. The depth issue in Happy Valley will soon be alleviated when Mike Watkins returns to the team. Watkins has yet to play this season due to an ongoing mental health issue. HC Patrick Chambers has said Watkins might play tonight, but he won't be enough to turn the tide in this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup. Va Tech has already beaten one Big 10 team this year, that being #19 Purdue, on their way to winning the Cancun Classic two weekends ago. They've since clobbered St. Francis (PA) 75-37. But even though they won by 38, that was actually only an 11-point game at halftime. But the Hokies were completely dominant over the final 20 minutes, holding the Red Flash to just 15 points. Tonight marks the Hokies' first "true" road game of the season, but I think they'll be up to the task. This team is legit as I've got them right around the same national ranking the pollsters do in my own personal power ratings. Penn State simply lacks the offensive firepower necessary to keep pace here. 8* Virginia Tech |
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11-26-18 | Wolves v. Cavs +6 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavs have been kind to me twice in the past week, covering the entire 96 minutes against a pair of supposed heavyweights, Los Angeles and Houston. They lost the Lakers game, LeBron's much hyped return to Cleveland, but easily covered a drastically inflated number (+9) in a 109-105 final. I also had them Saturday night in a huge upset of Houston (were 10-pt dogs) here at home. In between, they pulled another upset, perhaps one of the biggest you'll see this entire NBA season. They entered Philly on Friday as 13-point dogs and one of the three teams in the league w/o a road win. The Sixers were undefeated at home. All the Cavs did was pull a 121-112 upset where they led by as many 15 in the 4th quarter. This is an undervalued team right now! Ironically, Minnesota was one of the other two teams w/o a road win heading into Friday night. All three teams (these two + Phoenix) got the job done that night, however. Minnesota won in Brooklyn, 112-102, but that's a team missing its leading scorer. The T'wolves then won again Saturday, 111-96 over lowly Chicago. But that was at home. I get that the Cavs have experienced their fair share of issues, but laying this many points w/ a Minnesota team that has just one road win seems like a classic case of putting the "cart before the horse." The T'wolves have just two wins this year by more than 10 points. When these teams met in the Twin Cities earlier this year, the Cavs were only 8.5-pt dogs and covered (ever so slightly) in a 131-123 loss. So you can see the value here. Now Cleveland have Kevin Love (former T'wolf!) for that first meeting. He led the team w/ 25 points. But Minnesota also still had Jimmy Butler (since traded to Philadelphia), who led his squad w/ 33 points. That was the second game of the year for both teams. The Cavs now lean on rookie Collin Sexton, who just scored a career-high 29 points Saturday vs. Houston. Minnesota is 5-2 SU since dealing Butler, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark as a favorite. But they've never been asked to lay more than 2.5 pts on the road this year and Cleveland isn't substantially worse than most prior T'wolves' opponents. 8* Cleveland |
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11-26-18 | Nebraska +4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (7:00 ET): This is the first game of the annual "Big 10-ACC Challenge" and these schools met in LY's event as well. The 2017 meeting also took place here in Death Valley w/ Clemson holding serve 60-58, though they did not come close to covering the 10.5-point spot. This year, the Cornhuskers are a much stronger team, one more than capable of pulling the upset here. In fact, my numbers say they should be favored here and are also a top 20 team in the country. Nebraska will be a player in the Big 10 this year, mark my words, and they'll help the conference here w/ a win in an event usually owned by the ACC. Take the points. This will be Nebraska's first "true" road game. They do have a loss already, to Texas Tech in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. But the Red Raiders are really good right now and ranked #3 in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. I'm really not sure how the Red Raiders aren't in the Top 25 (should be after Monday). Clemson is (#16 as of this writing), but off a loss to another Nebraska school, that being Creighton. It was an 87-82 loss on Wednesday. The Tigers haven't played since. Meanwhile, Nebraska did get a chance to bounce back from its lone loss. In Lincoln, they clobbered Western Carolina over the weekend (Saturday), 73-49. In a two-point loss LY on this court, Nebraska missed 14 of 18 three-point attempts. That was essentially the difference in a game where neither side shot well overall. Clemson also had a massive edge in free throws (+15 in attempts, +13 in makes). Not so sure the Tigers can count on those same advantages being present this time around. Nebraska is averaging 80.5 PPG so far this season, but it's real strength is its defense, which ranks 4th nationally in scoring (51.7 PPG allowed). I realize that Clemson lost only one game on its home court this season, but it is 0-3 ATS here in Death Valley so far this season. Being left out of the NCAA Tournament (despite 22 wins) last year has this Cornhuskers team highly motivated coming into 2018-19. I'm higher on this team than most and look for them to justify my faith Monday night. 8* Nebraska |
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11-26-18 | Wofford +9 v. South Carolina | Top | 81-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For already the third time this season, Wofford gets a crack at a Power 5 school. They're 0-2 so far, but have taken on North Carolina and Oklahome. They actually got the Tar Heels at home (season opener!), but that's obviously one of the top teams in the country. Still, the Terriers only lost by 11. They lost by that same margin down in Norman, Oklahoma. South Carolina certainly isn't on the level of a UNC and I don't even have them at OU's level. Therefore, this number looks inflated. Wofford has topped 90 points in three games vs. lesser competition while South Carolina is 1-4 ATS w/ two SU losses. Take the points. Wofford got to host the Gamecocks LY and came up well short, 73-52 as 6.5-pt dogs. They shot poorly (34.7% overall!) while South Carolina went 11 of 23 from behind the arc. To call this a huge week in the history of the Wofford basketball program would be putting it mildly. After this game, they'll host East Tenn State in the SoCon opener (East Tenn St won Conf Tourney last season). Then it's a date w/ current #1 Kansas. But don't think for a second that Wofford is going to overlook South Carolina, an in-state opponent, as this represents a golden opportunity to knock off a P5 school. The Gamecocks did not play at all the week of Thanksgiving. Last time we saw them, they turned in easily their best performance to date, a 90-55 whitewashing of George Washington. The Gamecocks were 11.5-pt favorites, so it was a game they were expected to win comfortably. But I think that final margin of victory has had some unnecessary influence on this line. You do have to tip your cap to the way South Carolina defended against GW. They limited the Colonials to 28% shooting overall, including 4 of 27 in the 1H. They went into halftime w/ an incredible 56-18 lead. Things won't come that easy again the rest of this season and certainly not tonight against a mid-major that shoots the ball very well. South Carolina is just 5-15 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days of rest. 10* Wofford |
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11-24-18 | Rockets v. Cavs +10.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): Interestingly enough, there were three NBA teams that hadn't won a single road game going into yday. All three (Minnesota, Cleveland, Phoenix) won on the road Friday! It's a debate as to which was the bigger shocker: Phoenix winning at Milwaukee, or Cleveland winning in Philly. The Cavs were facing a Sixers team that was unbeaten at home and looked like the hungrier team, jumping out to a 22-8 lead early in the game and shooting 52.7% overall, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. Perhaps you could make the case Philly was still a little "full" from Thanksgiving, but tip your cap to Cleveland for what was their most impressive peformance of the season to date. Houston also played last night, but they lost in Detroit, 116-111 in OT. The fact that the game went to overtime is a bit of a "sore subject" for me as it allowed the game to go Over the total and I had Under (was 98-98 at the end of regulation). For the Rockets, the loss snapped a five-game win streak. Four of the wins had come at home, however, including one over those same Pistons (by 2) on Wednesday. With Carmelo Anthony persona non grata, the Rockets have been playing a lot better of late, but they're being asked to lay a big number on the road here and they've actually still been outscored this season. You also have to factor in the back to back. While Cleveland is definitely not a playoff team, I've been impressed w/ how they've looked the L2 games. I had them here at home against the Lakers Weds night. That was LeBron's much hyped return and the Cavs easily covered that one. The fact that this team has led the Lakers and Sixers for almost all of the 96 minutes (they did wilt late vs. LA) has to be taken into consideration. So does the number, which is huge. As bad as Cleveland has looked at times this year, they've only been a double-digit dog three times and all were on the road. I think we have to be a little careful in pronouncing "Houston's back" after all the trouble they had at the start of the season. 10* Cleveland |
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11-24-18 | St. Joe's v. William & Mary +4.5 | Top | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
8* William & Mary (4:00 ET): W&M comes into this game on a four-game losing streak, including a home defeat at the hands of Radford Tuesday. That last loss sounds worse than it really is as not only Radford is going to be a player in the Big South this year (top team), but W&M was incredibly short-handed for the contest, down three starters. Still, oddsmakers had the game listed as pick 'em even though the Tribe were starting three freshman. Now it isn't good that W&M allowed Radford to shoot 58% for the contest or that they rank outside the top 300 (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. But, the Tribe can score as is evident by placing in the Top 60 (per KenPom) on the offensive end. Last year's team averaged 85.0 PPG, which was 4th best in the country. St. Joe's is coming off a loss in the third place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational last weekend. After clobbering Wake Forest in the first game (won by 20 pts), the Hawks went down in the next two, losing to UCF and WVU. The West Virginia loss is certainly excusable, but losing by to 20 UCF wasn't the best of looks. Also, there has to be a concern over the Hawks lack of defense in those two games as they face a William & Mary team that will definitely want to pick up the pace. Not only did St. Joe's give up 97 points to West Virginia, but they also let UCF shoot 55% from the field. William & Mary's health is obviously important to this game, but it looks as if at least two of the three starters that missed the Radford game will return here. This is a young team, but the freshman getting so much playing time against Radford will be beneficial for the future. The loss to Radford snapped a 23-game home non-conference win streak for the Tribe. This is an explosive team that should thrive in the underdog role Saturday afternoon. They were also short-handed against Notre Dame last week and still managed to cover that game. Besides Radford, the Tribe's other three losses all came in "true" road games and one (to UIC) was by just five points. Don't be surprised at an upset here. 8* William & Mary |
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11-23-18 | Cal Poly +9 v. Portland | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
8* Cal Poly (10:00 ET): Portland is the host team in this tourney and won its first game, 73-56 over USC Upstate. It was their third win in a row and fourth of the season. But most of the wins haven't been all that impressive. Two were against non-board teams and they allowed over 100 pts in the season opener vs. Multnomah Bible College, a NAIA school that went 22 of 50 from three-point range. There was another close call at Cal State Northridge, whom the Pilots downed 80-77, but only after trailing by as many as 18 pts. So what I'm saying is that I really don't trust this team laying this many points, even if they are the tourney hosts. Cal Poly is a conference rival of Cal State Northridge. So maybe they had a chance to dial up the Matadors' coaching staff for a scouting report. Even if they didn't, look for the Mustangs to keep up in this game. They've lost three in a row, so motivation should be high here. Two of those three losses were to Pac 12 schools, Arizona and Wazzu, so no shame there. The most recent one came here in Portland in an ugly 54-42 game w/ Texas State. The Mustangs actually led the game at the half, 23-16, but went scoreless for nine minutes in the 2H and that was the difference in the game. Cal Poly has not been a good ATS team the last three seasons, going just 18-39 vs. the number overall. That includes a hideous 1-14 mark after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. But I'll call for them to buck the trend here. The issues against Texas State were a) getting dominated on the boards and b) shooting only 3 of 16 from three-point range. Both of those issues are easily correctable facing Portland. First off, the Pilots aren't a great rebounding team. Two, we already talked about their issues defending the three-point line. Take the points here. 8* Cal Poly |
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11-22-18 | Texas v. North Carolina -7 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* North Carolina (7:30 ET): This game is part of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational in Vegas and the Tar Heels are forced to make the trip w/o starting PG Seventh Woods as he sustained a concussion in practice on Tuesday. But it's important to note that HC Roy Williams has five players averaging double figures so far and Woods isn't one of them. Yes, he's an important piece, but he only averages 2.8 PPG, which is 11th best on the team. As per usual, this is a deep team coming from Chapel Hill and they've already topped 100 pts three times, albeit against much lesser competition. You'd think a team like UNC might be overvalued heading into its first real test of the season, but the opposite actually holds true here due to the Woods' injury. Lay the points. Texas, like North Carolina, comes to Las Vegas unbeaten. The Longhorns are 4-0, having already survived an overtime test from Arkansas earlier in the year. Shaka Smart's team is not nationally ranked and my own power rankings confirm they shouldn't be as I've got them just on the outskirts of the top 40. I've already played against them one time already, that being a horrible spot vs. LA Monroe, which was the game after they beat Arkansas in OT. The 'Horns never came close to covering the 19-point spot there, winning only 65-55. They've since recorded their first ATS win of the season as they destroyed The Citadel 97-69 last Friday. The long layoff coming into this Tournament doesn't look like a good thing for Texas, however. They're 0-6 ATS the L6 times playing w/ five or six days rest. Strangely, Texas has had UNC's number through the years. Roy Williams is just 1-6 SU/ATS vs. the Longhorns as the coach of the Tar Heels, but that record should change for the better after tonight. Were Woods healthy, I would guess this line would be double digits. Missing your starting PG is a big deal, but I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted. While Texas is 1-3 ATS, UNC is 3-1-1 ATS despite being favored by double digits in every game. Their only ATS loss came last time out in a 101-76 win over St. Francis (PA) where they were 27-pt chalk. I've got the Tar Heels ranked right behind rival Duke as the #2 team in the country. Too much scoring for Texas to keep up, in my opinion. 10* North Carolina |
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11-21-18 | Lakers v. Cavs +9.5 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): For the second time in less than a decade, LeBron James has left Cleveland's hoops scene a barren wasteland as the Cavaliers come into this much-hyped showdown w/ the worst record in the league at 2-13 straight up. However, unlike when he bolted for Miami in 2010, don't expect James to be winning NBA titles anytime soon w/ this current Lakers squad. While there are certainly signs of progress in LA (they've won 5 of their last 6 games), they remain a money-draining 6-10 ATS on the year and this is a big number that they're laying out on the road. Right now, I do NOT project the Lakers to be a playoff team in the Western Conference. The Cavs should definitely be ready for this game. Not only is it a much-hyped game with the franchise's best ever player returning, but they haven't really played much over the last week. In the last six days, Cleveland has had to play only once. That was Monday and while they lost to Detroit, 113-102, they very nearly rallied to "steal" the cover (were +9.5) in the end. One can only assume that the team's full focus has been on this game for awhile now. They've been playing short-handed, but I also expect LeBron to "take it easy" on his former mates. For the 13th time in his career, James scored 50+ points on Sunday, finishing w/ 51 in a 113-97 rout of his "other" former team, Miami. While Cleveland hasn't played much recently, the Lakers have. This will be LA's third road game in five nights, all out East. They were upset in Orlando over the weekend, giving up 130 points. Sunday's win over Miami aside, the Lakers are generally not blowing teams out this season as they have four wins by four points or less and just three by double digits. This number is inflated because of the hype surrounding James and the perception of Cleveland. The Lakers will most likely win here, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are expecting. 8* Cleveland |
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11-21-18 | Richmond -4 v. Wyoming | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Richmond (5:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I've already targeted multiple times this season and I've been successful on every occasion. The first was the season opener vs. UC-Santa Barbara when they lost by 10 as six-point favorites. That may end up as one of the worst lines set by the oddsmakers all year. The next time I faded the Cowboys was last Friday, again at home, facing Niagara. The Pokes lost outright yet again, this time falling 72-67 as 7.5-pt chalk. They're now 0-5 ATS on the season after losing 88-76 to Boston College on Monday, a game they were NOT "supposed" to win as they came in as eight-point underdogs. This game takes place in Ft. Myers, Florida and will be the second game for both Richmond and Wyoming here. I already mentioned that Wyoming lost to BC on Monday, well, that same night saw Richmond fall to Loyola-Chicago by 16 points. We all remember the Ramblers making it to the Final Four last Spring, but that was still a disappointing setback for Richmond as they were just seven-point underdogs in the contest. The Spiders come into today's game at 2-2 SU overall, having also lost to Longwood in the season opener. But they've shot well since that defeat, making almost 55% of their field goal attempts the L3 games! The problem against Loyola was the defense as they permitted the Ramblers to shoot a ridiculous 61% from the field. Wyoming won't be shooting that well Wednesday as their field goal percentage for the year is just 40.2. The Cowboys were picked to finish 7th in the 11-team Mt West before the season and look to be worse than projected as they are already short-handed (two players injured) in addition to losing four of the top five scorers from last year's team. The Pokes are also incredibly deficient on the defensive end, which is bad news against a Richmond squad that is shooting the ball very well right now. Look for the Spiders to run away with this one as Wyoming looks even worse on the defensive end than they were a season ago. 10* Richmond |
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11-20-18 | Green Bay +21.5 v. Oregon | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
8* WI-Green Bay (10:00 ET): It's been an impressive run so far out on the West Coast for Green Bay w/ them upsetting Eastern Washington and then taking care of Morehead State. Tonight, the task is far tougher as they head down to Oregon, but I think the Phoenix will be up for it. They're getting a lot of points here against a team in prime letdown mode following a big win. This is the end of the non-bracketed 2K Empire Classic, an event which has seen GB play two "true" road games already and go a perfect 2-0 ATS in them. The last game (vs. Morehead State) may have been the most impressive performance to date as the Phoenix led by double digits most of the second half in a game where they were a slight underdog. I'll take the points here. Oregon is nationally ranked (#21) and I'm not going to disagree w/ the pollsters on that. But this 2K Empire Classic Event has not been all "wine and roses." They lost to Iowa in Madison Square Garden last week, 77-69, a game in which the Ducks shot just 37.1% from the floor. They never led and were down 11 at halftime. Now compare that to Green Bay's performance against the Hawkeyes, which came in Iowa City, where the Phoenix were down by only one point entering halftime. After losing to Iowa, Oregon has since rebounded w/ an 80-65 win over Syracuse, also in MSG. They were better in all facets in that game, namely holding the Orange to just 35.3% shooting. But don't think for a second that result didn't affect this line, which now looks to be inflated. Both of these teams have beaten Eastern Washington, Oregon doing so in much more lopsided fashion, but for them it was a home game while Green Bay had to go to Cheney to get the win. The Phoenix are 3-0 ATS their last three games and the two SU losses they have suffered so far have come by a total of 15 pts. The Ducks will be their toughest opponent to date and this is a third consecutive game out West in a five-day span. The win over Eastern Washington was an overtime game as well. But this is just too many points to lay if you're Oregon, which will have to deal w/ a full-court press that forced Iowa into 17 turnovers. Also, Green Bay has topped 80 points in three straight games, so it's going to be really tough to score enough to cover a big number like this against them. 8* WI-Green Bay |
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11-20-18 | Clippers +1 v. Wizards | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (7:05 ET): The Wizards are such a dumpster fire right now that I'm more than willing to look past the fact the Clippers are in the second night of a back to back here. Reports are coming in that everyone is on trade block in Washington and it's already been confirmed that John Wall and Bradley Beal have had to be reprimanded for verbally berating the team's coach and general manager in a public setting. Another report surfaced that the players on the team simply "don't like each other." So that's the backdrop for Tuesday night's game as the Wizards come in at a very disappointing 5-11 SU on the season while also owning the league's worst ATS record (4-11-1). While the Wizards have been a massive disappointment, the Clippers have been a pleasant surprise so far. Last night's come from behind effort in Atlanta was the Clips' fifth straight victory, giving them an 11-5 SU mark on the year. This current five-game run has seen them cover the spread every time while the Over is also a perfect 5-0. Last night, they did have to rally from a 15-point second half deficit to beat Atlanta 127-119. Obviously, that requires a lot of energy, but the key here is that this team is deep. Four reserves scored in double digits last night, led by Montrezl Harrell's 25 pts. The Clips are a top five team in offensive efficiency right now and should have no problems scoring on a Wizards team that is 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed. While the Clippers have won five in a row as well as seven of its last eight, Washington has dropped B2B games, both here at home. The last one was even worse than it looked as they trailed Portland by 19 entering the 4th quarter, which is when beleaguered HC Scott Brooks benched his starters for the rest of the game. Not that it matters much, but Dwight Howard continues to be limited due to an ongoing glute injury. The Wizards are not shooting well from three-point range (32.7%), which is a problem in today's NBA. The only other time the Clippers have had to play a back to back this season, they won the second game, 116-110 in Miami. Even w/o second-leading scorer Gallinari and w/o rest, they deserve to be favored tonight. 8* LA Clippers |
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11-19-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Rutgers -4 | Top | 36-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): Playing at home, I think Rutgers deserves more than being just a "token favorite." Sure, Eastern Michigan will be a player in the MAC this season, but all the Eagles have done so far is roll up some wins against unimpressive teams and also get annihilated by Duke. Now that latter component won't exactly put them in exclusive company by season's end. But it's the wins that have been less impressive to me, particularly one that they share over a common opponent w/ Rutgers. That would be Drexel, who EMU beat by only four points up in Ypsilanti back on November 9th. Just two days later, the Scarlet Knights rolled the Dragons by 29 in this very building. Those two results against the same opponent tell me that the favorite is undervalued in this one. Eastern Michigan is 4-1 so far. But their first three wins weren't all that impressive as they had the close call w/ Drexel and then two others against non-DI teams. The Eagles knew they'd be up against it facing Duke, but things went even worse than expected as they trailed 48-13 at the half and would go on to lose 84-46. Saturday saw the Eagles turn in - easily - their best performance so far as they beat Boston U 80-62 as 7.5-pt chalk and shot 52.5% overall. Senior Eliajh Minnie led the way w/ 28 pts, including 5 of 9 from three-point land. But I question the Eagles' ability to sustain that kind of three-point shooting. They were just 31% as a team from behind the arc including Minnie's 1 of 13. On the road, I think their struggles from deep are likely to reappear. While Rutgers is hardly a "flagship" Big 10 program, they're still a Power 5 school and Eastern Michigan has not done well in such spots. Since beating Michigan 45-42 back in 2014, the Eagles have lost nine straight to Power 5 schools and are just 5-43 SU in such games the L20 years. This includes a 3-23 SU record vs. the Big 10. The Scarlet Knights are off their first loss of the season, which was a wake-up call, as they fell by 19 here at home to St. John's on Friday. After averaging 92.5 PPG on roughly 53% shooting in the first two games, Rutgers shot just 34.9% in the loss to St. John's while at the same time allowing the Johnnie's to shoot 16 of 32 from three-point range. I suspect tonight will be a big-time bounce back from that loss. 10* Rutgers |
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11-18-18 | Wake Forest v. Valparaiso +1.5 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (10:30 AM ET): The Myrtle Beach Invitational wraps up Sunday. This is a consolation game as both Wake and Valpo lost their first game. The team that Valpo lost to - Western Kentucky - will be playing in the Championship Game later tonight. There was not shame in losing to the Hilltoppers considering Valpo was a seven-point dog. WKU would also go on to upset West Virginia on Friday. Wake Forest lost its first game to a St. Joe's team that would go on to get blown out by UCF. The Demon Deacons did gain a measure of redemption Friday by beating CS-Fullerton in spite of shooting 33.9% for the game. Valpo beat Monmouth 64-53 as a six-point favorite. Wake lost 20 games last season, the fourth under HC Danny Manning. The season started well enough w/ a 90-pt effort over North Carolina A&T, but even then they only won by 12 as 21.5-pt favorites. Then came the St. Joe's loss where they fell victim to 16 three-pointers. Given that kind of shooting, the Demon Deacons had little chance and lost by 20. They did bounce back w/ a 66-59 win over CS-Fullerton. But even then, they needed to score the game's final seven points. To win here, they'll either need to shoot better than they did vs. CS-Fullerton or defend better than they did vs. St. Joes. Maybe both. Regardless, my numbers indicate the wrong team is favored this morning. Valpo was outshot badly by Western Kentucky in the first game here, but as I said earlier, that's no longer looking like a bad loss. They bounced back w/ a nice shooting night against Monmouth, also holding the Hawks to just 53 points. Over three games, the Crusaders are shooting 53%. At the same time, they're allowing just 39.7% shooting. Again, in my opinion, they're the better team here and I'll take the points. 8* Valparaiso |
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11-17-18 | 76ers v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): These teams squared off last Friday in Philly. Despite falling behind by as many as 21 pts in the 1st half, the Hornets covered easily - and probably should have won the game outright. They led by five w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, but let the Sixers force OT. The final score was 133-132, but at least Charlotte was +6.5. The Hornets have had terrible luck in close games the L3 seasons and five of their seven losses this season have come by four points or fewer. But tonight, they'll be looking to rebound from a truly embarrassing defeat, one that saw them go down by 24 to an undermanned Cleveland team that they had just blown out the previous week. It was just Cleveland's second win of the season. Charlotte is favored for this rematch and for good reason. They've had three days off to sit and stew about what happened in Cleveland. They should be highly motivated. Meanwhile, the Sixers will have had very little time to recoup from last night's hard fought 113-107 win over the Jazz. That was the home debut for the newly acquired Jimmy Butler, so there was a lot of emotion going into that game. Butler scored 28 pts to lead the team, but the real key was Utah shooting only 18.2% from behind the three-point arc (4 of 22). The Jazz also missed 16 of 37 free throw attempts in a six-point game. So the Sixers were both somewhat lucky to cover and win. This is a tough back to back as it's also Philly's third game in four nights and sixth in nine nights. It'll also be the fourth road game in the last week for a Sixers team that is just 2-7 SU away from home (8-0 SU at home). The last time they took their act on the road, they lost SU as a favorite to Orlando. They're giving up nearly 116 PPG on the road this season. Charlotte is playing at home for the 1st time in 11 days and should be very motivated off a bad loss and playing w/ revenge. Note Charlotte has lost twice to Philly this season w/ the two losses coming by a total of three points. They've lost to them eight times in a row. If they can't break through tonight, then I don't know when they will as the spot is more than ideal. The Sixers are 0-4 SU/ATS in the second game of a back to back this year, all those games taking place on the road, and the four losses have come by an average of nearly 16 PPG. 10* Charlotte |
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11-17-18 | Montana State v. UC-Santa Barbara -9 | Top | 69-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
10* Cal Santa Barbara (5:00 ET): The Gauchos have already treated me well this season. I took them in the season opener when they went to Wyoming and came away w/ an outright 76-66 victory as 6.5-pt dogs. Now, we know Wyoming isn't very good as we faded them again last night and came away w/ another outright winner, this time on Niagara getting 6.5 points. UCSB losing its second game, 82-63 at North Dakota State, has created a ton of value on this pick. Note the Gauchos were w/o Max Heidegger in that game as he was out w/ a concussion. He is expected back today as the team plays its second home game. They successfully rebounded from that loss to North Dakota State by thrashing D-III Cal Lutheran 88-32 on Tuesday. Lay the points here. Montana State is a team we tried fading Wednesday, but they surprised me w/ a strong effort in covering at Colorado State. They still lost, mind you, 81-77 as 12.5-pt chalk. The Bobcats had not fared well at all in their first two games (more on that in a second), but were able to keep pace in Ft. Collins due to outshooting CSU from behind the three-point arc. Montana State made a season-best 14 three-pointers in that game while CSU went just 6 of 30 from behin the arc. I think I should reiterate the fact that the Bobcats first two games of the season saw them lose by 30 to Utah State (at home) and then by 45 at Indiana. This isn't a good team. Their one win came against non-board team Presentation College. These teams played last year w/ UCSB winning in a rout, 91-69. That game was Bozeman (on the road) and the Gauchos were actually slight dogs going in. I expect a somewhat similar result here today. The likely return of Heidegger, an All-Big West selection last year, will have the Gauchos going 12 deep for this game. This is an underrated team by the oddsmakers right now, so keep an eye on them moving forward. Montana State is playing its second road game in four days and I don't believe they're capable of playing as well as they did Wednesday at Colorado State (who was a little short-handed). Lay the points. 10* Cal Santa Barbara |
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11-16-18 | Niagara +6.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 72-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
8* Niagara (9:00 ET): Despite the reputation of having a strong homecourt advantage (due to the hight altitude in Laramie), I had no problem fading Wyoming in their season opener. They lost - outright - as six-point favorites to UC Santa Barbara, 76-66. The Cowboys followed that up w/ another loss, at Oregon State, in their next game. They finally won for the first time on Wednesday, 86-78 over Grambling, but did not cover as 12-pt chalk. So their ATS record is now 0-3 as they return home to face Niagara. While the Purple Eagles may not be as formidable as UCSB, they can still cover the spread here, if not pull the outright upset. They've already pulled one upset, 80-72 over St. Bonaventure, though that one was at home. Take the points. The follow up to that upset wasn't as good for Niagara as they went down 75-62 at the hands of Loyola IL. But they still covered that game as 16.5-pt dogs. Remember that Loyola-IL was a Final Four team last March! Amazingly, the Purple Eagles stayed inside the number despite shooting less than 30% for the game! I have to imagine they'll be more productive on the offensive end tonight and a huge key to this game could be free throw shooting. Niagara shot 17 of 19 from the FT line in their last game and is 48th in FTA rate. Wyoming is 288th in opponents FTA rate. I also look for the underdog to have the rebounding edge in this battle. They are 32nd in the country so far, pulling down 38.9 boards per game. Wyoming is allowing 39.1 rpg, which ranks 303rd nationally. I just don't think this Wyoming team is very good this year. In my analysis for Opening Night against UCSB, I cited the fact the Pokes lost four of their top five scorers from a year ago and they project as a terrible defensive team also. Right now, the team simply can't shoot. Through the first three games, they are at just 40% overall from the field, including a dreadful 27.6% from behind the arc. That's trouble for a team that was 317th in the country in points allowed last season. So far, all three Wyoming opponents have scored at least 76 points. Giving up that many points makes it hard to cover as a favorite and it's right in line w/ what they gave up last year as well (78.7 PPG allowed). 8* Niagara |
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11-16-18 | Miami-OH v. North Dakota State +2.5 | Top | 89-78 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
8* North Dakota State (2:00 ET): I do believe that the wrong team may be favored here in a 1st round matchup of the Bahamas Showcase. Miami OH might be off a 91-42 win, but it was against an overmatched opponent (Midway) w/ extreme shooting percentages. We won't be seeing the RedHawks shoot 56% again in this game nor will we see the hold the opposition to just 26%. Note that in the RedHawks' first game, they lost 90-68 at Butler with the shooting percentages basically flipped. Here they face a North Dakota State team off an impressive 82-63 win over Cal Santa Barbara. They held the Gauchos to just 37% shooting. That was a nice bounce back after losing out in Las Cruces (New Mex St) in the season opener. The Bison really struggled to shoot the ball in that first game, but were much better offensively on Sunday. After taking a 15-13 lead midway through the first half, they would never trail again. An interesting bit of handicapping here - Miami has not played in a true bracketed regular season tournament in a decade. So this format may not favor them. They are just 2-9 ATS their L11 neutral site games and don't have a ton of depth. Like I said at the outset, I think the Bison are the better team here, so I'll take the points. 8* North Dakota State |
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11-15-18 | Hawks v. Nuggets -12 | Top | 93-138 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* Denver (9:05 ET): After looking like one of the best teams in the league through its first 10 games, Denver has shockingly dropped four in a row, all as favorites. Most shocking of all is that the last three losses all came at home where the typically enjoy a tremendous advantage. Tonight should signal the turnaround that they've been looking for, however, as lowly Atlanta pays a visit. The Hawks have lost 9 of 10 and are playing their third road game in five nights. Most would consider them to be the worst team in the league and I cannot disagree. Lay the points. Tuesday marked the Nuggets' first double digit loss of the season as they fell to Houston, 109-99. That was also only the second time getting held below 100 pts. Two of their previous three losses had come by just two points. Poor defense has cost them the L2 games as they allowed Milwaukee and Houston to shoot 57.1% and 54.9%. Fortunately, the Hawks are not either Milwaukee or Houston and should be a much easier team to defend. Atlanta is just 28th in offensive efficiency and has shot better than 50% from the floor in just two games all season, one of them against Cleveland. The Hawks also could be a little short-handed here w/ three players listed as questionable for various reasons. With a weak overall roster, that amount of absence can be devastating. Despite the losing skid, I still believe in this Nuggets team. Before losing to Houston two nights ago, the team was 6-2 ATS when on a losing streak of at least three games (over the L3 seasons). Atlanta is just 1-7 SU on the road, giving up over 118 PPG. After actually competing against both the Lakers and Warriors (who were short-handed themselves) in the last four days, the Hawks may very well run out of gas in the thin air tonight. 8* Denver |
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11-15-18 | Fresno State +11.5 v. TCU | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I took exception w/ LSU being included in the Top 25. So I faded them and came away w/ an ATS win on Memphis. I feel even more strongly against TCU's placement in the Top 25. The Horned Frogs will come into tonight's game ranked #21 in the country, but I do not have them in my own personal top 50! So this looks like another great spot to take advantage of the pollsters and the perception they place on the betting public. I realize that TCU has a strong core group of players, but outside of their "big three" this is a relatively inexperienced team. Fresno State is only two years removed from a NCAA Tournament berth and won 21 games last season. They are absolutely capable of pulling the upset tonight in Ft. Worth. Take the points. Desmond Bane, JD Miller and Alex Robinson are going to have to carry this TCU squad early in the season because w/ PG Jaylen Fisher out, the other nine players are essentially all new faces. Throw in the fact that two of the new starters, Kouat Noi and Lat Mayen, are both out with knee injuries and depth has already become a bit of a concern for HC Jamie Dixon. The Horned Frogs are 2-0 thus far, but failed to cover against both CS-Bakersfield and Oral Roberts. The former matchup saw them win by only five despite being favored by 18. Dixon has never lost a November game since becoming the HC at TCU, but it could very well happen tonight, even though the Horned Frogs are double digit favorites. Not only is Fresno State a little underrated in my eyes, the Bulldogs are also well rested coming into tonight's game. They've only played one game and it was last Tuesday against Alaska-Anchorage, an easy 91-63 win. New Mexico State transfer Braxton Higgins led the way w/ 23 points. I have to say that I'm a little shocked that the media picked this team to finish 5th in the Mt West given that FSU has won 20+ games each of the last three seasons as well as four of the last five. This rested underdog is also playing w/ a bit of revenge as they lost to TCU in the 2017 NIT, 66-59, but covered as nine-point dogs. Bottom line is that I have this game being way closer than the oddsmakers do. 10* Fresno State |
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11-14-18 | Montana State v. Colorado State -11.5 | Top | 77-81 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Colorado State (9:00 ET): Colorado State has had to start the year short-handed thanks to redshirting and a suspension. But it's hardly mattered as they easily disposed of two non-board teams (Colorado Christian and Ark-Pine Bluff) by an average of nearly 30 PPG. The Rams have been able to sustain the personnel losses to the fact they're a deep team this year w/ multiple freshman already contributing. First year HC Niko Medved is doing a good job w/ this team and they should have very little difficulty dominating a terrible Montana State team Wednesday night. Lay the points. Montana State won for the 1st time on Sunday, beating a school named "Presentation College," (a NAIA school). But before that, the Bobcats had been absolutely annihilated in their first two games, losing 101-71 to Utah State and 80-35 at Indiana. I don't think tonight's game will go a whole lot better for them. Against Indiana, which was a road game, the Bobcats shot a dismal 25.5% from the field, which is one of the lowest percentages you'll see all season. I think the fact we're getting this team off a rare win is helpful. Not only is the spread not as high as it should be, but the players themselves might now be a bit overconfident. When it comes to depth, this matchup is a no-contest. Six different players are averaging at least 12 PPG for Colorado State while two players account for 44% of total scoring for Montana State. If the Rams can shut down either MSU standout, Keljin Blevins or Tyler Hall, then they'll have no problem winning this game in a romp. Turnovers should also be key here as the Bobcats have been giving away possessions quite regularly so far. They had 25 turnovers against Indiana, for example. In two games, CSU has turned it over just 15 times. Montana State is a program w/ eight straight losing seasons and they simply are overmatched again tonight. 10* Colorado State |
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11-14-18 | Heat v. Nets +2 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I have these teams rated fairly even, so it looks like the wrong one is favored when you take into account where the game is being played. Miami is hardly a bunch of "world beaters" (lost three in a row & six of eight), so they really shouldn't be road favorites against anybody right now, save for the dregs of the league. Granted, the Nets have spent several seasons being counted among the dregs, but they appear to be much improved for 2018-19. They haven't played a ton of home games so far, but have managed to start the season at a respectable 6-8 SU. Take the points. The Nets were 6-6 SU before dropping their last two games, both of which were on the road and one was at Golden State. Monday night saw them lose 120-113 in Minnesota where the story was a scary looking injury to Caris LeVert. Thankfully, it appears as if the injury is not as serious as initially believed and LeVert can still return later this season. I suspect the injury has a lot to do w/ the Nets being underdogs here. LeVert was their leading scorer (18.4 PPG), so him being out definitely hurts. But I think there's enough remaining talent on hand to compete and certainly win this game. Miami's defense hasn't been good of late w/ them allowing an average of 114 pts over the L8 games. The Heat have won 11 of the previous 15 meetings w/ the Nets. But these are two franchises trending in opposite directions right now. Brooklyn took three of the four meetings last season. Miami is a bit of a mess having turned the ball over 15+ times in 10 of their 13 games. They were also called for 30 fouls in Monday's 124-114 loss to Philadelphia. Something else to note is that Miami's last three losses all came at home. Their two road wins this year have been by a total of six points w/ one coming by a single point at sorry Washington. They too are missing personnel and it's pretty clear to me that they're an overvalued team in the marketplace. 10* Brooklyn |
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11-13-18 | Memphis +11 v. LSU | Top | 76-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
8* Memphis (7:00 ET): This looks to be too many points that LSU is laying in their first "real" test of the season. Like every other game in this package, it's also a revenge spot for the team I'm taking. Memphis, in its first year under Penny Hardaway, figures to be a lot better than they were the last couple of seasons. They won their 1st game for Hardaway, as expected, 76-61 over Tennessee Tech. But they just missed out on the cover as 16-pt favorites. I'm going to like this Tigers team more as a dog anyway, like tonight. A dreadful shooting night cost them last year against LSU. The same thing won't happen again this time. Take the points. LSU is 2-0 having topped 90 pts in both games. But there is some cause for concern, especially at the defensive end of the floor. In a 97-91 win over UNC Greensboro over the weekend, they allowed 19 made three-pointers, the most EVER by a visiting team in Baton Rouge! Overall, the Tigers are allowing 46.4% shooting from behind the arc, which will absolutely come back to bite them if that number can't come down. Memphis is a big step up in class for them after facing SE Louisiana and UNC Greensboro. LSU is a young team as well w/ freshman accounting for more than 50% of their total pts so far. Memphis has a lot of freshman they're hoping to see contribute as well. The four newcomers to the program struggled against Tenn Tech, but I see their collective numbers improving after they combined to shoot just 5 of 24 in that opening game. Hardaway luckily can rely on his seniors, one of them being Mike Parks Jr, who had to miss the opener due to a back injury. I mentioned earlier that Memphis shot the ball terribly LY vs. LSY. They were just 37.3% from the field, including 4 of 22 from three-point range, in the 71-61 loss as 2-pt home dogs. This year's squad is going to do better. I'm not sure why LSU finds itself in the Top 25 this week; I barely count them among my top 50 teams in the country. 8* Memphis |
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11-13-18 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Florida International -4.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* Florida International (7:00 ET): Wisconsin-Milwaukee has started out the season quite poorly w/ losses to Boston College (by 20) and North Dakota. Expect FIU to have little sympathy for the Panthers however, as this is a revenge spot for them. It stems from a 66-51 loss last season, which took place in Milwaukee where "our" Panthers were 13-pt underdogs. This time around, it would appear that FIU has a sizable edge, though it's not being properly accounted for by the oddsmakers. I'll gladly step in and lay the short number here as the favorite should take care of business. It may been two clearly overmatched opponents, but FIU is certainly feeling optimistic about its chances here based on a 2-0 start. They topped 100 pts against both Webber College and Johnson & Wales, two non-board teams. They averaged 113.5 PPG on 52.3% shooting in the pair of wins. Looking ahead, it may never again be quite that easy offensively, but the Panthers should definitely find ways to score in this game. 1st year HC Jeremy Ballard, the latest to be plucked from the VCU coaching tree, walked into a great situation here by inheriting four returning starters. Offense was the primary concern coming into the year, but Ballard's boys seem well on their way to blowing past LY's production when FIU ranked 317th nationally in three-point shooting. FIU is also playing some defense as it held the first two opponents to just 31.1% shooting while forcing 55 turnovers! Again, I realize the teams that they played had no chance. But the performances will definitely give this team some confidence for its first "real" test of the season. Wisc-Milwaukee is shooting a dreadful 30.3% from the floor so far and managed only 17 first half pts Saturday at home vs. North Dakota. It's a bad sign when you're leaning on a transfer who only averaged 1.4 PPG last season. Wisc-Milwaukee has just three players total back from LY's sub-.500 squad, including only one starter. They are going to struggle this year. 10* Florida International |
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11-13-18 | NC-Greensboro v. NC-Wilmington +6.5 | Top | 82-61 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): Yet another revenge spot! Although unlike the other two matchups in this report, this is NOT a battle of teams w/ the same nickname. It is, however, a battle of in-state rivals. UNC Greensboro won LY's meeting, 71-58, as 8.5-pt home chalk. It would appear as if the oddsmakers are giving the Spartans a bit too much "credit" out here on the road. I can only assume that has to do w/ them taking #22 LSU down to the wire in Baton Rouge over the weekend. By making 19 three-pointers in the contest, the Spartans were easily able to cover the 10-pt spread in a 97-91 loss. But I don't think they'll replicate that kind of shooting here. UNC Wilmington is 0-2 on the year, so they enter tonight as a desperate team. A 97-93 loss to Campbell was an auspicious start to the year, but be aware that game went into overtime. It was close the whole way. That game was on the road, so the Seahawks hoped for better in their home debut Friday vs. Stanford where they were drawing an opponent making a rare cross-country trip. Unfortunately, the Seahawks lost that game by 13 on a bad offensive night (shot just 35.2% overall). They did lead by as many as eight early, but actually went into the break down 14 thanks to a 7 1/2 minute stretch w/o a field goal. So you have one team, laying points on the road, coming off a historically great shooting night. Then you have a home dog coming off a poor shooting performance. I'll side with the latter here in what should be a bounce back performance. It was poor shooting that cost the Seahawks last year's meeting. But I don't see that happening again. This is more points than they were getting against Stanford, which seems crazy. This is also UNC Greensboro's third straight road game to open the year, all played within a span of a week. Good spot to fade them. 8* UNC Wilmington |
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11-12-18 | Louisiana-Monroe +19.5 v. Texas | Top | 55-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
8* LA Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a bad spot for Texas to be laying so many points. Shaka Smart's Longhorns just survived an overtime game against Arkansas over the weekend, winning 73-71. Despite leading at the half, the Horns were somewhat lucky to even get the game into OT considering they went almost 10 minutes in the 2H w/o making a single field goal. Close games have somewhat become the norm in Austin under HC Smart as half of their games LY were decided in the final minute or overtime. Heck, they only won their opener against Eastern Illinois by 12 points. LA Monroe is an underdog deserving of respect. The Warhawks won't win, but they'll keep it close. There was some fear in Monroe that this team might struggle to score in 2018-19 due to being fairly thin along the front line. However, so far, those fears have proven to be unfounded. Four players are averaging double figures so far, led by senior Daishon Smith (17.0 PPG), a transfer from Wichita State. And the concern about a lack of big men hasn't really mattered as the Warhawks have blocked 15 shots in two games, both wins. They've won at Jackson State (75-66) and then clobbered non-board team Millsaps 94-52 Saturday in the home opener. Against Millsaps, they shot better than 50%. Obviously, it's going to be a far greater challenge tonight. But this dog can score enough to stay within a generous number, in my opinion. These squads met last year w/ Texas winning easily, 80-59 as 17.5-pt chalk. Both teams are better this season, so I'm a bit surprised to find the spread has increased for this rematch. LA Monroe shot very poorly LY here in Austin, making only 30% of their total shot attempts, including 8 of 34 from three-point range. They also attempted only 11 free throws. It's been established that the Warhawks are much better offensively now than they were at this time a year ago. We'll see about the size issue, but the Longhorns might still be gassed from playing an OT game 48 hrs ago. Plus they struggled to score, making covering a large number like this problematic. 8* LA Monroe |
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11-12-18 | Troy State v. Pittsburgh -4.5 | Top | 75-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Pitt is off to a nice start this season w/ a pair of double digit wins over Youngstown State and VMI coming by an average of 27.5 PPG. That may not sound like a whole lot to get excited about, but remember the Panthers hit a program low point last year when they went winless in ACC play. Right now, this team is underrated (and should continue to be in the early part of the season) as I love the Jeff Capel hire as HC. Capel learned under Coach K. While he has a young team, it's one that is coming together more quickly than expected. Lay the points. Troy comes into this game 1-1. They did lead by as many as 13 at St. Louis on Saturday, but could not hold on due to poor shooting. The Trojans shot just 38.9% for the game, including a woeful 23.8% from three-point range. It was certainly a far cry from their 96-50 victory in the season opener against Fort Valley State, but then again that was to be expected given FVS is a D-II team. My view is that the Trojans are going to continue to struggle to score as Wesley Person (graduated) is going to be missed this season. Person scored more than 2,000 points and shot better than 37% from 3-pt range in his four years here. Adding to Troy's offensive problems here is the fact Pitt held its first two opponents to 26.9% and 33.9% shooting and an average of 54 points. At the same time, Pitt shot 63% from the floor against VMI (who admittedly is NOT known for its defensive prowess). Three freshman have stepped up for the Panthers, who also got senior Jared Wilson-Frame back in the lineup vs. VMI. Pitt has covered its last six non-conference games and while Troy did cover at St. Louis, they're just 1-4 ATS when off an ATS win. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-11-18 | Bucks v. Nuggets -3 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): This already figured to be a terrible spot for Milwaukee as it's their fifth game in eight days, third in four and second of a back to back. It's also the finale of a four-game trip out West and they're ending in Denver after playing in the Pacific Time Zone (LA) yday. Losing that hour is critical as going from the West Coast to Denver has long been one of the most brutal spots any NBA team can face not just b/c of the time change, but also due to the thin air here, which leads to added fatigue. Never mind the fact that the Nuggets are also now one of the NBA's best teams. So that's what Milwaukee was already up against coming into Sunday and now the situation is made worse by the fact they lost an overtime game Saturday to the Clippers. The Bucks are a big-time fade for me tonight. Milwaukee was "riding high" coming into the weekend as they were 9-2 and coming off a 134-111 thrashing of the Warriors (in Oakland) on Thursday. But the OT loss to the Clippers yesterday afternoon had to take a lot out of them. They were down 15 early, but battled back and it's a game they could have won. But they lost on a buzzer beater instead. While on the subject of winning, I should point out that's something that Milwaukee has NOT done here in Denver since 2010. Also, the Bucks are only 3-3 SU on the road this year. They've lost three of the past four road games in fact. Don't expect the Nuggets to feel the least bit sorry for the Bucks tonight. They are coming off B2B two-point losses to Memphis and Brooklyn, the latter coming right here at home. It was Denver's 1st home loss of the season. But they're still 6-1 SU here and outscoring visitors by 10 PPG. Despite losing to Brooklyn 112-110 on Friday (I had the Over!), Nuggets star Nikola Jokic had a breakout game w/ 37 points and 21 rebounds. Jokic been shockingly quiet in the team's previous four contests, so it was nice to see him assert himself. I'll call for another big game from him tonight. This may be a battle of two teams in the top five in the league right now, but one has a clear advantage. Last weekend, the Nuggets beat Utah by double digits in a similar situation. 10* Denver |
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11-10-18 | Rockets -2 v. Spurs | Top | 89-96 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:35 ET): It's still only November, but the Rockets REALLY need a win here. Call it the "curse of Carmelo Anthony" or whatever else you'd like, but this team is only 4-6 SU and just lost to the Russell Westbrook-less Thunder on Thursday. It was their third straight game getting held under 100 points and the fourth time in the last five games! This is a team that was neck and neck w/ Golden State for the top spot in offensive efficiency last year and was within one game of the NBA Finals. There were only seven instances all of last year's regular season where the Rockets were held below 100 pts and one of them was the meaningless final game. I'm expect an 'A' game from them tonight in San Antonio. This isn't the same Spurs team as we're used to seeing as the entire core of the past several seasons is gone. But they still have Greg Popovich coaching and DeMar DeRozan has somewhat stepped into a leadership role. But, like Houston, the Spurs are off a pretty poor performance as they were held to only 88 points on 33.3% shooting Wednesday night in Miami. It was the lowest shooting percentage in a game by any Spurs team dating back to '08. LaMarcus Aldridge was a woeful 2 of 14 from the floor despite grabbing 16 rebounds. It was also San Antonio's second straight loss as they fell here at home to Orlando on Sunday. San Antonio has played only twice since Sunday while this is Houston's fifth game in nine days. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Rockets played in OKC as they trailed for the entire second half and got down by as many as 25 points. But before that they'd won three in row and were starting to show signs of a turnaround. Slow start to the season or not, I believe they are the better team here and I will lay the short number. They won three of four against the Spurs last season. 10* Houston |
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11-09-18 | Hornets +6 v. 76ers | Top | 132-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Philadelphia finally won a road game, doing so Wednesday at Indiana, 100-94 as a 2.5-pt dog. Now they return home where they've yet to taste defeat (6-0 straight up). Two of those six wins have been by two points or less, however, one of them against Charlotte back on October 27th. It was a 105-103 final, a game where neither side had a lead of more than six points the entire second half. Therefore, taking the points in this rematch would seem prudent, especially considering the Hornets have the better YTD point differential (6th best in NBA!) and easily covered the last time. Since losing to the 76ers, the Hornets have won three of four. The only loss was to Oklahoma City by four points. All three wins came by double digits. Though Kemba Walker is currently 2nd in the league in scoring at 28.1 PPG, this is a deep Charlotte team. Seven players were in double figures in a 32-point win over Cleveland and then five were in Tuesday's win over Atlanta. You may recall that I faded the Hornets in that spot vs. Atlanta (and came away w/ a half-point cover!), but it's important to note they were also double digit favorites. Here, they are underdogs, a role that has seen them go 3-1 ATS this season. Of the team's five losses, four have been by four points or less. Going back to last season, Philly has taken the last five meetings from Charlotte. They swept the season series last year, also going 4-0 ATS, but all four games were contested after March 1st when the Hornets were pretty much out of contention. Charlotte missed 26 of 35 three-pointers in the last meeting, which probably won't happen again here considering the team is shooting a much more reasonable 36.5% from behind the arc for the season. Philadelphia's offensive production has been far more inconsistent and they've averaged just 102 PPG the L3 contests. Philly is a top five team in defensive efficiency, but Charlotte is top five in offensive efficiency. This could then boil down to the fact Charlotte is 11th in defensive efficiency while Philadelphia is 20th offensively. 10* Charlotte |
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11-09-18 | UL-Lafayette +16.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
8* UL Lafayette (7:00 ET): Tennessee is a top 10 team playing at home, but they're laying too many points here. Let's not put a ton of stock into the Vols' 81-46 over non-board team Lenoir-Rhyne either. The Bears did not have a single starter w/ more than one made field goal and they barely shot 20% from the field. Clearly, they were not a formidable opponent. But I believe the Ragin Cajuns can be as they too dominated a lesser opponent in their opener, scoring 121 points. Take the points. Louisiana shot a ridiculous 67.1% from the field en route to scoring 121 pts on the University of the U.S. Virgin Islands. Obviously, as is the case for UT, things will be nowhere near that easy tonight. But with six players scoring in double figures in the opener, the Ragin Cajuns certainly are capable of making a "run at it" this evening. This team shot 58.3% from three-point range in the opener. Am I a little concerned about the defense? Sure. But ULL can score enough to hang within a huge number. They won 27 games last season. This was a top 15 team nationally in scoring too. Tennessee has a lot of hype, which may be working against it right now. I think there could be some defensive regression this year in spite of what we saw in the opener and all the talent back. Consider that over the last two seasons, the Vols are just 1-4 ATS when laying more than 12.5 points at home. They have bigger games they might be looking ahead to on the docket. This is the highest preseason ranking in school history. Two guards, Jalen Johnson and Lamonte Turner, are battling injuries and could be limited here. 8* UL Lafayette |
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11-08-18 | Evansville +13.5 v. Illinois | Top | 60-99 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
8* Evansville (8:00 ET): Both of these teams are in rebuild mode. Illinois is in the second year of their rebuild under HC Brad Underwood while Evansville is set to embark on its own, under 1st year HC Walter McCarty (yes, the former Kentucky standout). The situation almost begs for you to take the points as scoring should be at a premium in this game where both teams are trying to find their way. Both teams are expected to finish near the bottom of their respective conferences. Illinois, the favorite, allowed 73.8 PPG last season. Take the points. The Illini bring back only four players from last season, one of them being talented guard Trent Frazier. He's pretty much the only holdover worth mentioning as the other key player figures to be highly touted freshman Ayo Dosunmu. Overall, Underwood will have SIX freshman playing for him this season, so this is a really young Illinois team. Such a young team could be likely to overlook an opponent like Evansville and is not a good candidate to lay points with. In the games that they were favored to win last season, the Illini only won by an average of 8.1 points per game. Evansville is going to have to deal w/ a press, but I feel the 1st game of the season allows you adequate time to prepare for that. Like Illinois, there is a lot of roster turnover here for the Purple Aces. It's top three scorers from last year are all gone and the three most talented players on the roster are all ineligible right now. That's hardly a good sign, but this team can play defense and hopefully that continues under McCarty. Lsat season, the Purple Aces ranked 11th in the country, giving up just 63.9 PPG. If they can keep Illinois close to that number, then they should cover w/ ease tonight. 8* Evansville |
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11-07-18 | Western Carolina +17.5 v. Wright State | Top | 73-96 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
8* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Wright State should not be laying this many points, in my opinion. They did win 25 games and the Horizon League last season, but this year's squad lost two of that team's key players - Grant Benzinger and Justin Mitchell - both of whom were double digit scorers. Now it has been B2B 20+ win seasons for the Raiders under HC Scott Nagy and my projections for this year have them right line for that win total again this year. But this is a big number to lay for a team that was not a double-digit favorite all that often last year. Take the points. Western Carolina finished sixth in the SoCon last season w/ a sub-.500 record and was 13-19 SU overall. It was a poor finish to the regular season as the lost seven of their final 10 games, then were one and done in the Conference Tournament. For this year, the Catamounts have a new head coach (Mark Prosser), though he will need a find a way to replace lost production from the top two scorers from LY both graduating. While it may seem like Western Carolina has no chance here, don't be surprised to see them be a better shooting team than they were last year (were 327th in FG%). It may seem odd that I'm calling for improved offense against a Wright State team that held its opponents under 60 PPG last year. But with this promising to be a pretty low-scoring game overall, taking the points is definitely the way to go. Wright State failed to score more than 65 points in almost a third of its games last season. Look for the underdog to find a way to stay under the big number. 8* Western Carolina |
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11-06-18 | UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Wyoming traditionally has one of the top homecourt edges in the sport (high elevation!), but I don't think that alone wil be able to carry them against what is a gutty underdog. Truthfully, I'm not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here. Under the guidance of a 1st year HC (Joe Pasternack), UCSB completed the second best single-season turnaround in D-I history last year, going from 6 to 23 wins. They were denied a postseason berth as they lost in the Big West Tourney semis, but did go 11-4 ATS on the road last season. Wyoming was a terrible defensive team LY and also lost four of its five top scorers. Take the points. UCSB also must deal with some key departures as they have only one starter back from last year's turnaround team. Max Heidigger (19.1 PPG) is the one key holdover. But unlike Wyoming, the Gauchos appear to be well-positioned to replace that departed talent. They had the best recruiting class in the Big West plus added a few key transfers, Devearl Ramsey from Nevada, JaQuori McLaughin from Oregon State and Ar'mond Davis from Alabama. Ramsey is a speedy point guard while the other two will definitely help the Gauchos' shooting from long-range. Wyoming is off B2B 20+ win seasons. They also won 10 conference (Mt West) games LY, just the 2nd time in 16 years they'd done that. But as mentioned above, four of the top five scorers are gone and that's not good news for a team that didn't really shoot the ball all that well anyway. Even worse is the team's defensive outlook. Last year, the Cowboys ranked a horrendous 317th in scoring, allowing 78.7 PPG. That makes them a dicey proposition to lay points with, and they had a losing ATS record at home last year anyway. 10* Cal Santa Barbara |
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11-06-18 | South Alabama +20 v. Auburn | Top | 58-101 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
8* South Alabama (9:00 ET): Auburn will start the season ranked #11 as most consider them the third-best team in the SEC, behind Tennessee and, of course, Kentucky. The Tigers were a 4-seed in LY's NCAA Tournament, but bowed out in embarrassing fashion in the Round of 32, losing by 31 to Clemson. They were not a healthy team come Tourney time and a couple of key offseason departures have me a little "lukewarm" on them to start the year, even though they're still expected to score plenty of points here in 2018-19. But this is a big number to lay in the first game and I'll take the points. South Alabama has a new HC, Richie Riley, who comes over from Nicholls State. Riley, a former assistant at both UAB and Clemson, led Nicholls State to the regular season championship in the Southland. After five straight losing seasons, the Jaguars should be significantly improved this season and be a player in the Sun Belt. They return the majority of LY's roster, including their top five scorers. Riley inherits a team that was in the top 15 in the country in forcing turnovers, doing so on 22.4% of opponents' possessions. The Jaguars will have to improve their shooting, both from three-point rang and the free throw line. They should do that. You may have forgotten that Auburn opened last season by winning 16 of its first 17 games. At one point, people were buying Bruce Pearl's team as a possible #1 seed (I did not). The key to their eventual downfall was a season-ending injury to Anfernee McLemore. He is back, but Mustapha Heron (transferred to St. John's) is not, nor is LY's leading rebounder Desean Murray (transferred to Western Kentucky). Also, Danjel Purify is ineligible for the season's first nine games due to the scandal that has engulfed the sport. Austin Wiley, like Purify, was ineligible LY due to the scandal. He had actually been cleared, but is now doubtful for the season opener due to a foot injury. I believe we're not going to see the Tigers score the way they did last season, at least initially. 8* South Alabama |
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11-06-18 | Hawks +11.5 v. Hornets | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): On paper, Charlotte probably could not have asked for an easier set of back to back games than what they're getting here. After easily dispatching of Cleveland Sunday night (won by 32!), they'll get Atlanta tonight, also at home. The Hornets are 5-5 SU on the season, but actually own the East's third best point differential at +7.6 points per game. They are an impressive 4th in offensive efficiency. However, I don't see things going quite as easy tonight as they did Saturday vs. Cleveland when seven Hornets finished in double figures, including five off the bench. I'll take the big number in this one. Coming into the year, most had Atlanta finishing at the bottom of the Eastern Conference. This is definitely a rebuilding project, but the team has won three games, including its last one. Saturday night, they upset Miami (at home) by a score of 123-118 (as 5.5 pt dogs). Rookie Trae Young led the way w/ 24 points and a career-best 15 assists. The team made 13 three-pointers and led by as many as 15 in the second half. This will be among the biggest numbers that the Hawks have gotten so far and it's one worth grabbing. Now the Hornets have largely controlled this Southeast Division rivalry, winning and covering seven of the past eight meetings, including all four here in Charlotte. But they are usually not this large of a favorite. The Hornets are 2 for 2 as double digit chalk so far this year, easily beating both Chicago and Cleveland. But I see a team prone to a letdown in this spot, especially w/ a more marquee battle (at Philadelphia Friday night) looming on the horizon. Note that Charlotte is 2-5 ATS after scoring 125+ points in their previous game. 10* Atlanta |
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11-05-18 | Rockets v. Pacers -1 | Top | 98-94 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers were my *10* Game of the Week on Saturday and despite being in the second game of a back to back, they rallied to beat Boston on Victor Oladipo's jumper w/ just a few seconds remaining. I thought they were a "steal" as a home dog in that matchup and here that's the case as well against a Rockets team that simply is not playing very well in the early going. Right now, Indiana is one of only six teams in the league with a win percentage of .700 or higher and outscoring its opponents by five or more points per game. I think they should be favored by more here and I'll take them for a second straight time at home at what looks to be an excellent value. Houston, who won 65 regular season games a year ago, was a massive disappointment in opening the season 1-5. They've won B2B road games, but those came against Brooklyn and Chicago and neither were easy despite both victories coming by eight points. They actually trailed at the half in both games. With Chris Paul and James Harden each missing multiple games, it would be easy to pin the Rockets' problems on that. But I believe the team's issues run a bit deeper. They've already suffered four double digit losses, all at home no less. They're 3-1 SU on the road, but won't be able to overwhelm Indiana in a quarter like they did to both Brooklyn and Chicago. With Eric Gordon still out, Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni has had to use five different starting lineups in eight games. Indiana's three-game win streak has been by a total of nine points, so they're by no means blowing teams out recently. But they were earlier on in the season w/ their first four wins all coming by double digits. Compare that to a Houston team that has yet to win any game by double digits. The Rockets' scoring is way down this year (106.2 PPG) due them shooting just 42.3% from the floor. At the same time, the defense has gotten way worse, though numbers have slightly improved because of the last two games. But right now, Indiana is simply the better team here and I'll take them at home. 10* Indiana |
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11-03-18 | Celtics v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): After trailing by as many as 18 in the first half, the Pacers were able to come back and beat the lowly Bulls Friday night w/ Darren Collison's jumper in the final seconds being the difference in a 107-105 final. It was the team's second straight "close" win as they beat the Knicks by only six on Wednesday. But now, for just the fourth time all year, Indiana gets to play a home game. They won their first two, beating both Brooklyn and Memphis pretty handily, but lost to Portland earlier in the week. This won't be an easy three-game homestand for the Pacers as they face the Celtics, Rockets and 76ers. But I think they'll up to the challenge tonight from Boston. While Indiana is the team playing the second night of a back to back, I'm wondering if it's not the Celtics in the worse situation here. They're being asked to lay points on the road after a big home win Thursday night over previously unbeaten Milwaukee. I see no way the Celtics will match their prolific shooting from that game where they made a record 24 three-pointers. That three-point shooting helped nullify that the Bucks had a ridiculous 62-22 edge in points in the paint. The Celtics did have a double-digit lead going into the 4Q, but things quickly got tight and they had to hold on a for 117-113 victory. While Boston has won four in a row, three of those wins have been by six points or less. I'm certain that the Indiana players and coaching staff will treat this as a "measuring stick" game as to determine where the team is at in the Eastern Conference pecking order. Last year, they played four tight games w/ the Celtics and the road team surprisingly won all four. Three of the games were decided by a total of nine points, so going w/ the underdog here seems logical. The way that Boston was outscored in the paint by Milwaukee makes me thinks that the Pacers' Domantas Sabonis is going to have a big game here. Sabonis is shooting 70.7% from the field so far. Jaylen Brown is currently listed as questionable for the Celtics. Take the points. 10* Indiana |
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11-01-18 | Kings v. Hawks +2 | Top | 146-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Improbably, the Kings have won four straight - all as underdogs. I was willing to bet that streak would end at three, but was wrong as they downed Orlando on Tuesday, 107-99 as 4.5-pt road dogs. Over the past three seasons, this is just the third time that Sacramento has won more than three straight games. Tonight, they look to continue the streak, but have a couple things clearly working against them. One is that this will be their third road game in four nights. Two, for the first time all season, they find themselves favored. That's problematic considering they have lost 11 straight times in Atlanta and are just 4-16 ATS in their last 20 visits here. Last season, the Kings were road faves all of four times and didn't cover once (0-3-1 ATS). Atlanta, like Sacramento, is a young team that no one expected much from in 2018-19. Ten players on this Hawks' roster have two or less years of NBA experience. Take away Vince Carter and the average age of the roster drops pretty significantly. As is the case w/ many young teams, the Hawks are currently going through some growing pains. They've lost three in a row, including a bad 136-114 decision at previously winless Cleveland Tuesday night. The Hawks are just 2-5 SU and ATS overall, however they've had to play the majority of their games on the road. Rookie Trae Young has been as good as advertised, leading the team in both points (19.1 per game) and assists (6.6 per game). Teams that are seldom favored often make for good fades when in the chalk role. Just ask Atlanta. The lone time the Hawks were favored to win a game this year, I played against them. That was Saturday vs. Chicago and sure enough, they lost outright 97-85. I think the scheduling catches up w/ the Kings here as does the inevitability that they've been overachieving of late. 8* Atlanta |
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10-30-18 | Kings v. Magic -4 | Top | 107-99 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Can Sacramento really pull a fourth consecutive outright upset, tonight? I'm willing to bet that the answer is "no." Last night, the Kings went to Miami and upset the Heat, 123-113 as nine-point dogs. Like I alluded to, it was their third straight outright win as a dog. The previous two were at home and saw them beat Memphis 97-92 (as a 3-pt dog) and Washington 116-112 (as a 5-pt dog). Tonight, they are a pretty short dog in Orlando. I get that the Magic have dropped four of five and aren't exactly inspiring as home favorites (were 2-10-1 ATS in that role LY). But they are well rested (two days off) while the Kings are playing the second game of a back to back. Sacramento is also 1-13 SU/2-12 ATS when coming off a double-digit win the L3 seasons. Orlando should play a lot better here than what we saw from them on Saturday in Milwaukee. There, they lost 113-91 while shooting only 32.7% from the field. But that was on the road and against an unbeaten team. The Magic have actually taken on a pretty challenging schedule in the early going, facing the Sixers, Celtics, Blazers and Bucks in the last four games and three of those (not the Blazers) were on the road. Tonight will be the 1st time all season that they are favored and they have previously pulled upsets over both the Heat and Celtics. I see them playing their "best game" of the season tonight. While you have to hand it to Sacramento for winning three straight, a lot of history is against them tonight. For starters, they are just 1-3 ATS the L3 seasons when on a win streak of three or more games. They have only two win streaks of more than three games during that time. Playing w/o rest has been unkind to this team as well as they are just 12-24 SU in the second game of a back to back. They did win one earlier this year, vs. Memphis, but that was also at home. This is the second of back to back road games. It just seems like a logical spot for them to fall. 10* Orlando |
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10-29-18 | Blazers v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 103-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is a pretty interesting Monday night matchup in NBA. Both teams fancy themselves as legit contenders in their respective conference, more so than the public probably does. Both are off to decent starts. Portland is 3-2 SU w/ one of its losses coming by a single point in overtime. All five of their games have gone Over the total. Indiana is 4-2 SU and just won B2B games on the road, both by double digits. They're a short favorite here at home tonight and I'll lay the number considering the Blazers are playing a third road game in five nights. The Pacers also have double revenge from last season when they lost both meetings. Indiana beating Cleveland rather convincingly might not seem all too impressive considering the Cavs' winless record. But note it was still a road game for the Pacers, who were outrebounded and w/o sixth man Tyreke Evans (who is averaging 12.5 PPG). Still, led by Victor Oladipo's 24 pts, six Pacers finished the game in double figures (including all five starters) and the team shot a blistering 64.9% overall from the floor! That probably speaks to how bad Cleveland is defensively, but I still think it's impressive the Pacers could win a game by double digits on the road despite there being some obvious areas for improvement (like FT shooting). Evans will be back in the lineup tonight. Indiana is also 2-0 at home so far, having won both games by 20+ points. Portland is not that great defensively (giving up 117.2 PPG), so it could be another big night for Indiana offensively. While they rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter Saturday night, the Blazers actually trailed by as many as 19 down in Miami. This is a team that has given up 108 or more points in regulation in every game this season. They've allowed 114 or more in all but one game. Look for an Indiana team that's actually playing some defense (102.8 PPG allowed) to exploit this. Both teams are top six so far in offensive efficiency, but the key is that the Pacers are also top five on the defensive end. They're at home and have covered all three times they've been favored so far this year. 10* Indiana |
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10-28-18 | Jazz -4 v. Mavs | Top | 113-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
8* Utah (7:05 ET): After an impressive 132-111 win last night in New Orleans, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 on the road. It's too bad then that they're 0-2 SU at home or we'd be talking about them living up to the preseason hype. Many, myself among them, feel this team is destined to finish #2 in the West (behind the Warriors). Last night was definitely a step in the right direction as they hung 132 on an unbeaten Pelicans squad. Tonight's game should be pretty easy as well. Lay the points. Dallas is the exact opposite of the Jazz as they're 2-0 at home, but 0-3 on the road. They're off B2B losses in Atlanta and Toronto, though they were able to at least cover in the latter. But that came as 11-pt underdogs. Save for the Raptors, it's not exactly been a challenging slate of opponents for the Mavs. They have also faced the Suns, T'wolves, Bulls and Hawks, four bad teams. The biggest problems has been poor shooting as they are at just 43.9% overall and that would be even lower if not for the 140-pt game (shot 50%) against Minnesota. What makes this an ideal matchup for Utah is they have held three straight opponents below 43% shooting. They projected as the best defensive team in the league before the year started. They were #2 in defensive efficiency last season. Remember that Dallas was one of only two teams that did NOT average 100 PPG LY. The Mavs are also letting their opponents shoot 48% from three-point range, the worst mark in the league. Utah is off its best offensive game of the year last night and that should carry over. 8* Utah |
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10-27-18 | Bulls +5.5 v. Hawks | Top | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Chicago (7:35 ET): Personally, I don't think Atlanta should be favored by this many points against anybody. Even though they've won B2B games, I still have the Hawks as the lowest rated team in my own personal power ratings. Chicago is right ahead of them, so the spread here should be nothing more than the token three points for homecourt advantage. I realize the Bulls are in the second night of a back to back, and without multiple players, but this is a good value and I have them at least covering the spread. The Hawks two upsets have come at the expense of Cleveland and Dallas, two teams that aren't exactly world-beaters. Cleveland is still winless (only team in Eastern Conference w/o a win), so beating them isn't all that impressive and the Dallas win saw them down 26 points at one juncture. That was here at home and had they not shockingly come back to win, I think we'd be viewing them in a much different light coming into this game. As far as them being favored here, that happened only 12 times all of last season. Never were they asked to lay this many points and there were only two times they were favored by more than three points. I have to see more from them before we start calling them "improved." The Bulls are just 1-4 overall and 0-3 on the road. But two of their losses have been by six points or less. Last night was an ugly showing in Charlotte as they gave up a season-high 135 points. That caused HC Fred Hoiberg to quip "I know we are throwing a lot of makeshift lines out there, but it is not an excuse to not go out there and play hard." While w/o Kris Dunn, Lauri Markkanen, Denzel Valentine and Bobby Portis, the Bulls still have Zach LaVine, who is averaging 32.5 points per game. Tonight is also a homecoming for top draft pick Wendell Carter, Jr, who I expect to play well. Take the points. 8* Chicago |
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10-26-18 | Clippers v. Rockets -3 | Top | 133-113 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): Even w/o James Harden, I'm rolling w/ the Rockets here as they are the clearly superior team compared to the Clippers. Now you might not think that given their 1-3 SU start to the season w/ one of the losses coming out in LA. But that first meeting w/ the Clippers was the second half of a back to back as the Rockets had just beaten the Lakers in a spirited contest the previous night. Even worse, a fight at the end of that game w/ the Lakers left PG Chris Paul suspended for two games. So the Rockets are not strangers to being down a superstar when facing these Clippers. The difference last time was the Clippers bench scoring 56 points. Even so, the Rockets still only lost by three on the road. Things will be different this time around. Paul was also suspended for Houston's last game, a 100-89 home loss to Utah. It's definitely been a challenging slate of games for the Rockets so far w/ Paul's suspension only compounding matters. But he'll be back in the lineup tonight, just in time to offset Harden's absence. Note that it was a tight game in the 4th quarter vs. Utah when Harden left w/ an apparent hamstring issue. The Jazz would go on to score the game's next 10 points and take control for good. I don't think much of Carmelo Anthony anymore, but he's here and had a season-high 22 points vs. Utah. With Harden out, expect him to be a bigger factor in the Rockets' offense. Certainly, having Paul and Anthony is enough to offset the loss of Harden. Note that Houston had only ONE losing streak of at least three games LY and it came around the X-Mas holiday. The Rockets shot only 40.2% from the field against the Jazz, who are one of the league's better defensive teams. Expect that shooting percentage to be way up tonight against the Clippers, who will be playing on the road for just the second time. Like Houston, LA got to know first hand what New Orleans is "all about" this season as they lost down in the Big Easy, 116-109, Tuesday night. The depth is there for HC Doc Rivers, but he wishes he had the "high end" talent Houston has. I look for the Rockets to be highly motivated in this early season revenge spot and I love the value we are getting due to the overreaction to the Harden injury. 10* Houston |
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10-24-18 | Grizzlies v. Kings +3 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): Because they find themselves playing in the second night of a back to back, the Kings are better than expected value tonight as they return home to host the Grizzlies. The Kings did lose last night, which was to be expected as they were in Denver. The final score was 126-112 and thus they just missed covering as 12-pt dogs. Now they were down 20+ heading into the fourth quarter, which is pretty shocking considering they ended up shooting 52.3% for the game, including 13 of 31 from three-point range. But I expect them to bounce back at home tonight as a) they're back home, b) the Grizzlies don't deserve to be road favorites and c) a back to back isn't that big of a deal this early in this season. Take the points. Memphis had a rough season last year as they lost 60 games. Now they were as banged up as any team in the league and figure to improve this year. They've already started 2-1, including a huge upset of Utah Monday night as 11-pt underdogs. They allowed just 84 points in a shocking defensive performance that saw them hold the Jazz to just 35.4 percent shooting. Still though, the Grizzlies haven't shot the ball particularly well themselves so far (40.2 FG%). They did cover as a seven-point favorite against Memphis last week, but that was at home. As a road favorite, the team was 0-4 SU and ATS last season and it's a role I'm not ready to trust them in just yet. Sacramento came into last night's game second in the league in scoring at 125.7 PPG and was the first team to top 100 against Denver so far. So that's at least one positive takeaway from last night. Free throw shooting was definitely not positive as they missed 11 of 20 attempts. That number should definitely go up tonight. The Kings are a dead even 17-17 ATS in the second night of a back to back the L2 seasons, so they're no worse in this situation ATS than they are normally. In fact, there's no difference at all as the team's overall ATS record since the start of 2016-17 is 81-81! No starter played more than 24 minutes last night. The Kings have shot better than 50% from the floor in every game this season and have enough offensive firepower to potentially pull the outright upset. 8* Sacramento |
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10-21-18 | Warriors v. Nuggets +3.5 | Top | 98-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:05 ET): Golden State finds itself in the second leg of what insiders know is the toughest road trip in the sport, the Utah-Denver double shot. The Warriors were lucky to beat the Jazz Friday night, 124-123, getting a last second tip-in from Jonas Jerebko. The two-time defending champs are now 0-2 ATS on the year as they also failed to cover against the Westbrook-less Thunder on Opening Night. It's pretty shocking that the Dubs needed a last second tip-in to squeak by the Jazz given that they shot 56.3% for the game. They aren't likely to shoot the ball that well again here and as I stated earlier in the week, this Denver team is for real. Take the points. The Nuggets are also 2-0 straight up, but unlike Golden St they've covered both games. I took them in the first game as they rallied late to put away the Clippers, 107-98. Last night, they predictably blew out the Suns 119-91 w/ Nikola Jokic's triple double (35-12-11) leading the way. Jokic also didn't miss a single shot, going 11 for 11 from the field. Not all the news was good coming out of the game, however, as Will Barton was lost to a hip injury and could miss extended time. He won't play tonight. But despite that injury and the fact the Nuggets are in the second night of a back to back, I still think the situation favors them. They traditionally own one of the league's best home court advantages (31-10 SU LY) due to the high altitude other teams aren't used to playing at. Remember - it was a blowout win last night, so the B2B game scenario isn't that bad here for the Nuggets. They led 30-16 after one quarter. Losing Barton could be significant, but thankfully this is one of the league's deeper teams. The Nuggets should also be "up" for playing the Warriors at home. Typically, they have matched up well against the Dubs, even beating them twice outright last year. They are one of only three teams (Spurs & Jazz are the others) to hold at least five regular season victories against Golden State in the Steve Kerr era. A number of the Warriors' top players have struggled in this venue previously. Kevin Durant is a woeful 34% from three-point range in his career here while Klay Thompson has never scored more than 21 pts in a game at the Pepsi Center. I'll take the points, expecting an outright win. 10* Denver |
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10-20-18 | Rockets v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): LeBron lost his Lakers' debut Thursday night, falling at Portland, 128-119. I wouldn't be overly concerned with that result, however, considering James also lost his pro debut in Cleveland, his 1st game in Miami and his 1st game back in Cleveland. In the case of the last two stops, his teams immediately bounce back w/ a win. As for James individually, he was his usual efficient self against the Blazers, totaling 26 points, 12 rebounds and six assists. What has the potential for more concern was Houston's woeful performance in their first game. At home, they were blown out 131-112 by the Pelicans and it looks as if they are prepared to take a step back this season. One of these teams is going to be 0-2 SU after tonight and I'll take the points. Last year was one of the best seasons in recent Rockets' history as they finished w/ the best record in the league (won 65 games) and took the eventual champion Warriors to a 7th game in the Western Conference Finals. But like most, I have them taking a bit of a step back in 2018-19. For one, I hate the Carmelo Anthony acquisition. No team w/ Melo on the roster has ever been a legit championship contender and this is now his 4th franchise. Last year's team was actually competent defensively, but w/ the losses of Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute in the offseason, that might not be the case again this year. We saw clear signs of defensive regression against the Pelicans, who shot 53.1% from the floor en route to a blowout victory. Bad news for Houston is that the Lakers were just 7 of 30 from three-point range against Portland and missed their first 15 attempts. That might actually sound like "good news," but I don't see any way the Lakers aren't better from distance tonight and that's not even factoring in the Rockets' poor defense. While I do think the expectations for the Lakers are a little high this season, this team does have plenty of talent beyond just James. It's a more talented group than he had LY in Cleveland. Meanwhile, I'm concerned that Rockets' HC Mike D'Antoni had to make the excuse "I thought they were tired" in reference to his team's performance vs. New Orleans. It was the 1st game of the season! 8* LA Lakers |
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10-19-18 | Thunder +2 v. Clippers | Top | 92-108 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): In this PERFECT 4-0 start to the NBA season, both of these teams have treated me well, albeit in different ways. Oklahoma City was my 1st winner of the season as they stayed inside the number against Golden State on Opening Night despite not having Russell Westbrook. Then I played against the Clippers the following night as they hosted Denver and lost 107-98 here at home. I'm sticking with those preferences tonight and taking the Thunder. They have had the Clippers number in recent years, going 6-1 ATS the previous seven meetings, including a season sweep in 2017-18. Plus, as I said in the earlier analysis, I simply don't think much of this Clippers team whose ceiling is probably no higher than 11th in the Western Conference. There have been conflicting reports about the status of Westbrook for tonight's game. Initially, he was thought to be rule out, but he's officially listed as questionable. Clippers' HC Doc Rivers claims to have an "inside source" and believes that Westbrook will play. Consider him playing to be an added bonus, one that we don't need. Despite 27 points from Paul George, the Thunder shot only 36.3% from the field Tuesday night, including 10 of 37 from three-point range. They also missed 13 of 37 free throws and were outrebounded, a rarity for them, by the Warriors. I expect all shooting numbers to go up here and for the rebounding to improve as well tonight. The Clippers were soundly outrebounded by the Nuggets on Wednesday and one of the reasons I believe it'll be a similar story here vs. OKC is that Thunder are traditionally one of the top rebounding teams in the league. Like the Thunder, the Clippers didn't shoot particularly well in their season opener, but the difference is that they don't really have the horses to project any kind of improvement for tonight. The starting five is barely recognizable from past years and Patrick Beverely was 0 for 8 from the floor against the Nuggets. The team's best scored, Lou Williams, comes off the bench. The Thunder are the better team here, with or without Westbrook, and I'll gladly take the points. 10* Oklahoma City |
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10-17-18 | Nuggets -1 v. Clippers | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:35 ET): I don't think the Clippers are going to be very good this year while Denver projects to be a top 4-5 team in the West. Therefore, even in LA, this looks like a good value play on the Nuggets. The preseason, as meaningless as it is to some, showed me that the Nuggets are going to score plenty of points this year. In particular, a much-hyped game vs. the Lakers saw them score 124. After missing the playoffs five straight years (came very close L2 years), this team should win 50 games this year. The Clippers are a team trending in the opposite direction. Last year was their first time NOT making the playoffs since 2010-11. They traded away Blake Griffin. They were not healthy, which hopefully won't be the case this year, but players like Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari are injury-prone. Their most reliable scorer, Lou Williams, is best served as a 6th man. Doc Rivers' starting five is now Tobias Harris, Gallinari, Beverley, Marcian Gortat and Avery Bradley. Hardly inspiring. At some point this year, HC Doc Rivers is going to focus on developing younger talent. The Nuggets are loaded w/ scoring options: Nikola Jokic, Paul Milsap, Will Barton, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris may not be "household names," but trust me when I say that this team is going to put plenty of points on the board. This actually could be the deepest team in the entire league. Milsap being healthy will be key. Missing out on the playoffs because of a loss in the regular season finale still sticks w/ this team. They'll come out strong this year. 10* Denver |
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10-16-18 | Thunder +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 5 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): There was a time when a spread like this would have been eye-popping, but any time the Warriors are at home, they're going to be laying a lot of points. The two-time defending NBA Champs (also won 3 of last 4 titles) again come into the year as the prohibitive favorite to repeat. There's such an embarrassment of riches with this time that it almost feels like the regular season is a complete waste of their time. Of course, that mentality can also lead to a number of "play against" situations. Like tonight as they host Kevin Durant's former team, the Thunder. OKC has thankfully rid itself of Carmelo Anthony, which is addition by subtraction from where I sit. Melo is now Houston's problem and this should help the Thunder in the Western Conference pecking order. Anthony was never a fit here as he needed the ball too much on a team that already had Russell Westbrook. With Westbrook and Paul George, this remains no worse than a top five team in the West in my estimation. It's a lot of points to be taking for the 1st game of the season. Remember that the Thunder beat the Dubs twice last year and lost another time by only four. Now the big story here is that Westbrook may not play as he's still recovering from offseason knee surgery. But even if the Thunder have to go w/o him, I believe they can hang against Golden State. If he does play, obviously that's just a bonus. Golden State has a bit of a new look for this season w/ Damian Jones starting at center. Obviously, there's no question marks w/ the other four starters, but newly acquired DeMarcus Cousins won't be suiting up until December at the earliest. The Warriors are weak on the interior and OKC has long been one of the better rebounding teams. I look for the Thunder to rebound from LY's poor 36-50-2 ATS mark. 10* Oklahoma City |
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06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): While a series sweep entails one team winning four in a row, a loss tonight in Cleveland would all but end the Cavaliers' season. For the third year in a row (this is the fourth straight Finals meeting), they have opened the NBA Finals by losing the first two games in Golden State. Barring a series comeback many just aren't seeing right now, the Cavs will likely rue the Game 1 loss for some time. So many things (reversed call, missed FT, JR Smith blunder) went against them in the overtime loss, that it's a wonder they even were able to make it to Game 2. While they fought valiently Sunday night, the underdog Cavs just couldn't seem to get over the hump in a wire to wire defeat, 122-103, at the hands of the Warriors. But, now at home, I think we'll see them perform a lot better. I'm taking the points in Game 3. If it feels like we've seen this before, that's because we have. Just last round, in the Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland found itself down 0-2 to Boston w/ the series heading back home. They would go onto win the next two games here in C-Town and eventually the series. Now, this Warriors team is a lot more formidable than the Celtics. But, same as that Boston series, I have to believe the Cavs' players not named "LeBron James" will start to set up now that they're back on their home floor. In the first two games, James' teammates are an abysmal 8 of 32 from three-point range off his passes, including 5 of 16 when uncontested. JR Smith, Jeff Green, Kyle Korver and Jordan Clarkson are a combined 14-54 from field in the series, including 5-25 on 3's. Again, look for these shooting numbers to jump way up now that we're at the Quicken Loans Arena. Golden State shot 57.3 percent from the field in Game 2, which makes them basically impossible to beat. In fact, they were near 54% for the first two games as a whole. But, just like Cleveland's shooting numbers must go up, the Warriors' must go down. At four games, Golden State is currently on its longest win streak of the postseason. They are 9-21 ATS this season off 3+ consecutive SU wins. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs never scored more than 94 pts in any of the four games in Boston. But in the three home games, they scored: 116, 111 and 109 pts. In the last five home games, they've averaged 113.8 PPG. In both '15 and '16, they beat GSW here at home in Game 3. Last year, they should have done the same, but blew a huge lead. With their season basically on the line, I'm on the home dog. 10* Cleveland |
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06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): This is an interesting game to handicap. The crux of the arguement hinges on whether or not the underdog Cavaliers truly have a formula to stick w/ the heavily favored Warriors, or will they be "emotionally spent" coming off a brutal Game 1 overtime loss? For me, I believe it's the former. I understand the need for the marketplace to "respect" the Dubs, but to me, the oddsmakers have them overpriced in this series. As maligned as this year's "supporting cast" might be, any team that can claim LeBron James on its roster is capable of winning on any given night. I almost never mention the officiating in my analysis, but there was certainly a myriad of calls that went against the Cavs Thursday night that cost them the chance at pulling the outright upset. After cashing the Over in Game 1, I'll take the points in Game 2. James had 51 points in Game 1 (on 19 of 32 shooting) to go along w/ eight rebounds and eight assists. It's a real shame how it was "wasted." His teammates went a combined 25 of 67 from the field (just 37.3%) including 7 of 30 from three-point range. Obviously, they need to be better. There was the JR Smith gaffe that will live in infamy, which followed a George Hill missed free throw that could have won the game at the end of regulation. Kevin Love played pretty well, but was also just 1 of 8 from behind the arc. I expect the supporting cast to be "better" here, which it will need to be as it would be beyond any superlative were James to score 50+ again. One key area where the Cavs did dominate Game 1 though was on the glass. They outrebounded Golden State 64-42, including 19-4 on the offensive end. Tristan Thompson will NOT be suspended here and I see no reason why the Cavs can't dominate the "smallish" Warriors on the glass again. This is the fourth time this postseason that Golden State has won three straight games. They have yet to win four straight. They lost Game 4 of the San Antonio series, then Game 3 of the New Orleans series and then Game 2 of the series as well. Now all of those losses did take place on the road. They have lost once at home this postseason (Game 4 vs. Houston), but overall have won 18 of their last 19 playoff games at Oracle Arena. I want to point out though that each of the last three games have seen them have to rally from a deficit of at least nine points. That doesn't seem like a very sustainable blueprint to me. Andre Iguodala is still out w/ a knee injury and listed as doubtful. I'm not sure the team shoots 51.1% from the floor again like it did in Game 1 either. For the season, when off three or more consecutive SU wins, the Warriors are just 8-21 ATS. Cleveland is 5-1 SU this postseason when down in the series and 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* Cleveland |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:05 ET): Will we really see a road team win both Game 7's in the Conference Finals? The oddsmakers and public certainly think so as Golden State is a pretty significant favorite here, which is rare for a road team in a Game 7. Of course, that has a lot to do w/ the status of Chris Paul for the Rockets. For the record, as I write this, the Rockets are saying CP3 is "questionable" and will be a "game-time decision." Whether or not he plays, this play stands. Though Game 6 ended up being a disaster for Houston, note that that they did put together a 39-point first quarter w/o Paul. On the road. I'll take the points w/ the (rare) home dog in a Game 7. The Rockets have now been held under 100 pts in four straight games. Just how unprecedented is that? In the regular season, there was never an instance of them failing to score at least 100 pts in consecutive games! They've averaged just 91 PPG these L4 contests, which is just stunning. But, again, as we saw in that 1Q Saturday night, this team is more than capable of still scoring even w/o Paul. Consider that despite shooting 8 for 12 from three-point range in that 1Q of Game 6, the Rockets finished the game just 31 of 77 from the field overall (40.3%) and would go onto miss 20 of their final 27 attempts from behind the arc. James Harden in particular has really struggled from distance, going a combined 4 of 23 the L2 games. But, now the Rockets are back home and I just don't see any way we don't see across the board improvement offensively here. Four straight games of 40% shooting or worse is pretty unprecedented for any team in this league, especially this one. Home teams are now 104-27 SU all-time in Game 7's. That's just under an .800 win percentage. Over the last five years, home teams are 14-4 SU and two of the four wins by the road team came from the LeBron-led Cavs. On the road, the Warriors will not shoot as well here as they did at home in the second half of Game 6. They outscored the Rockets 31-9 in the fourth quarter, which is ridiculous and not going to happen again. Houston has not lost B2B games in the playoffs (going 4-0 ATS off a loss as well). Paul or not, I just see a ton of value w/ a team that was favored over the Warriors the last time here at home. 8* Houston |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. I've actually been on the Rockets in every game in the series, feeling that they're undervalued, and I'm not wavering from that viewpoint here in a spot where the "world" figures to be on Golden State. We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts. Now Golden State is going to improve upon its own 39% shooting from Game 4 as well. They shot better than 50% from the floor in each of the first three games. But I'm not sure they get to that level here. Even if they do, they still have to win, which is not easy to do for the road team in Houston. The Rockets are 40-9 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 PPG. They are also 52-14 SU this year when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella take the floor together. Consider that Golden State jumped out to a 12-0 lead in Game 4, led by 12 again in the fourth quarter and still lost. And that was at home! Those advantages won't be present here in Houston. While both may end up playing, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala (the latter being questionable) are not 100% and that has an impact on a shortened Warriors' rotation that really can't play its bigs due to the Rockets' "small-ball" lineups. 8* Houston |
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05-23-18 | Cavs -1 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, after seemingly being written off after the first two games, the Cavs have stormed back to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece. Now we head back to Boston for Game 5 where the Celtics have not lost the entire postseason. They're a perfect 9-0, both SU and ATS, here at TD North Bank Garden w/ the vast majority of the wins coming by double digits. Both Games 1 and 2 of this series were decided by DD as the Celtics won by 25 and 13 pts. But there's probably something to the fact that Cleveland has held a double digit lead in each of the last three games, largely holding it for the majority of the previous two. I'm willing to put my money w/ LeBron James as it would appear the lack of their own "go-to" option is finally starting to catch up w/ Boston. After shooting 51% from the floor in Game 1, the Celtics have not shot the ball well the rest of the series. They're at just over 41% for the last three games and that includes a 25 of 81 mark from three-point range. Defensively, Cleveland has largely been a lot better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season (when they ranked a woeful 28th in efficiency). For the entire postseason, the Cavs are allowing just 101.7 PPG, which is a lower average than the defensive-minded Celtics! Now Boston's scoring typically goes up here at home. It would be easy to say that they'll regain lost form here in Game 5. But Cleveland is actually 9-5 SU here in TD North Bank Arena in this second era of LeBron. It was easy to forget after the first two games, but the Celtics don't have their best player (Kyrie Irving) and I'm not sure who they can count on - consistently - to counteract James. LeBron is the difference maker here as he turned in yet another 40+ pt effort in Game 4 (44 to be exact), albeit one w/ "only" five rebounds and three assists. He is averaging 33.7 PPG in the playoffs. Though they led wire to wire in Game 4, the Cavs had a lot of miscues (which can easily be corrected) that allowed that game to stay closer than it should have been. Namely turnovers, seven of them coming from LeBron. He'll need some help from the supporting cast obviously, but I sense a big game coming from James tonight as for the first time in the series, we'll see the road team get a win. 10* Cleveland |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the second time in three games, the Rockets were humiliated by the Warriors as they lost Game 3 by an embarrassing 45-point margin. Once they got down, it was a total laydown "effort" which saw them get outscored 38-18 in the fourth quarter. Steph Curry finally came alive for the Warriors, scoring 35 pts on 13 of 23 shooting. That was more points than he had in Games 1 and 2 combined (34) when he was 2 for 13 from three-point range. At one point, before catching fire late in Game 3, he was 3 for 19 from three-point range for the series. As for Houston, they shot just 39.5% overall for the game. This shapes up like a classic "zig zag" spot in the NBA playoffs where you take the team that got blown out the last game. That's precisely what I'll do as this is a big number for a Rockets team that was favored in both home games. You don't see the Rockets lose that big or score that little very often. Sunday marked just the third time all season that they were held below 85 points. They came back and won the next game after both such occasions. They are also 7-3 SU off a double digit loss this season. They have yet to drop B2B games this postseason, coming back from their lone loss in the Minnesota series w/ a 19-pt win (on the road) and then their lone loss in the Utah series w/ a 21-pt win (also on the road). Of course, the also rebounded from losing Game 1 of this series w/ a 22-point win in Game 2 (at home). So that's an average margin of victory of 21 PPG when off a loss in the playoffs. Not saying that will happen here, but it's illustrative of how the team doesn't play poorly in B2B games. Conversely, the Warriors are just 3-6 ATS when leading in the series during these playoffs. Everyone has been quick to proclaim "the return of Curry," but he really didn't get going until Game 3 was out of reach. Andre Iguodala has been listed as "doubtful" for tonight w/ a knee injury. Getting back to the Houston supporting cast, we saw Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combine for 68 points (on 23 of 33 shooting!) in Game 2. That same trio had just 23 total pts (8 of 24 shooting) in Game 3. They should, collectively, have a bounce back effort tonight. Remember that Houston is 51-14 SU this year when another trio - James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella - all play. 10* Houston |
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05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets tied up this best of seven Western Conference Finals w/ a convincing 127-105 win in Game 2. It feels as if that game took place "eons ago," (Wednesday to be exact), so allow me to remind you that Houston's back was really "up against the wall" in that one as the chances of them overcoming a 2-0 series deficit to the Warriors, with both losses coming at home, was next to nil. Now the scene shifts to Oakland for Game 3 and it's no surprise that the Dubs are prohibitive favorites to reassert control in the series. However, I see them being favored by too many here as I'll remind you that Houston was the better team - whether you're talking record, net efficiency or point differential - in the regular season. Take the points here. It's not as if the Rockets' postseason performance should result in any sort of "downgrade" here either. Like Golden State, they needed just five games to advance past their first two opponents. Tonight marks the first time in these playoffs that they will be an underdog. After basically failing to exceed their season average in points per game six straight times, Houston finally "woke up" offensively in Game 2, scoring 127 points on 51.1% shooting and they made 16 three-pointers. It's not like the team's scoring average dips that much on the road where they are averaging over 110 PPG for the season. They also have the best road record in the league mind you at 34-11 SU. They've won the L3 road games, one in Minnesota and two in Utah, by an average of almost 18 PPG (all by 13 or more). Now Golden State is obviously a "step up" from those two aforementioned teams (actually, SEVERAL steps up), but with the points this is more than "doable" for the Rockets and, in fact, I believe they can take this game straight up. Yes, Kevin Durant has been as good as any player not named "LeBron James" in these playoffs. But what about Steph Curry? He is averaging only 17.0 PPG and has missed 11 of 13 three-point attempts. The "knee-jerk" reaction would be to call for a breakout performance here in Game 3, but I'm not so sure of that. Plus, Houston scores so much that the Warriors' margin for error in covering this spread is pretty small. That's if they even win. Note that the Dubs are just 10-22 ATS when facing an opponent w/ a winning record the second half of the season. This one can go either way, so I'm definitely taking the points. 10* Houston |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): Though they failed me in Game 1 (fell victim to a second half "surge"), I'll come back w/ the Rockets again in Game 2. This is basically "must-win" territory for the home team, as they do not dare fall behind 0-2 w/ the series set to move back to Oakland. Now, they wouldn't be eliminated per se, but let's be honest, dropping B2B home games to the Warriors would be "death." While the Dubs shot well in Game 1 (52.5% overall), the same really can't be said for the Rockets (45.9% overall). They scored just 50 pts after halftime, which was the difference. As was Kevin Durant scoring 37 points. James Harden scoring 41 for Houston wasn't even enough. But w/ their backs against the wall, I'll take a Rockets team that is 11-3 SU off a SU loss as a favorite this season. The rationale for taking the Rockets here is essentially the same as it was for Game 1, only now amplified due to the situation. They've now lost only nine times in 48 tries at home this season w/ a point differential of nearly plus nine points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston. The Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs. I anticipate the Rockets shooting better as a team here in Game 2 compared to Game 1. Not since the first two games of the 1st round series vs. Minnesota have they been held under 110 pts in consecutive contests. Furthermore, Golden State is just 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive victories this season. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark here in the postseason as they've followed up their previous three game losing streaks w/ a SU loss both times. The Rockets should get more here from the players beyond the trio of Harden, Paul and Capella as well. 10* Houston |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, it certainly didn't take the media (both national & local) to write Cleveland off in this Eastern Conference Finals. After a Game 1 debacle that saw the Cavs lose by 25 points (108-83), it's all aboard the Boston train seemingly. I had the Celtics in Game 1 mind you, but have to admit that I was very surprised at the ease at which they prevailed. They got out to a big lead early and never looked back. It obviously won't be that easy in Game 2 and I'm going w/ the "zig zag" theory for Game 2, expecting a Cavaliers' bounce back. LeBron James in particular was bad in Game 1, getting held to 15 pts on 5 of 16 shooting (missed all five 3-pt attempts). Cleveland, one of the top offensive units in the game, shot just 36% as a team and was 4 of 26 from three-point range. That won't happen again and I'm on 'em for Game 2. While Cleveland couldn't hit water from a boat in Game 1, Boston - its starters in particular - could not miss. The Celtics finished the game at 51.2% from the field, but that's a little misleading as the starting five combined to go 34 of 59 from the field, which is an unconscious 57.6% overall. That quintent also accounted for 10 of the team's 11 made three-pointers. Needless to say, we won't be seeing that happen again, even if Cleveland is a somewhat deficient team at the defensive end. The Celtics are still perfect at home this postseason (8-0 SU and ATS) and 10-3 ATS overall in playoff games, but Cleveland has not lost B2B games in the playoffs. They are also 15-8 ATS as dogs this season. The Cavs have been held under 85 pts only two times previous to Game 1 this season. After both instances, they came back and won the next game. They are also 10-4 SU in that situation the L3 seasons. Boston, as good as it is defensively, had only held an opponent to 85 pts or less five times all season. Obviously, Cleveland is going to be better in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, but my call is that they'll be SIGNIFICANTLY better - to the point that we'll head back to Cleveland w/ the series knotted up at a game apiece. Don't forget James came into this series averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game this postseason. 8* Cleveland |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -105 | 65 h 59 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the 1st time since Steve Kerr became the head coach of the Golden State Warriors (which was 2014), the Warriors do NOT have homecourt advantage in a playoff series. The Rockets won 65 games in the regular season, finishing seven games clear of the Dubs, thus getting the top spot in the Western Conference this year. Yet, they are they underdogs in this series and not even being given much credit at home. I think there's tremendous value on Houston in this series opener (and possibly Game 2?) as this is a team that has lost only eight times at home all season (in 47 games), winning by an average of 9.4 points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston. Now the Warriors are by no means having a down season. Their numbers may not be as prolific as they were each of the last two seasons, but they've still lost only three playoff games in six series since Kevin Durant became a member of the team. But here's another stat for you: the Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs. You won't find the Warriors as underdogs too often. Usually, it only happens when multiple star players are out for a stretch, like we saw earlier this season. Interestingly, they are just 1-5 ATS this year as dogs. They are also just 9-21 ATS in the second half of the season against teams w/ winning records. Neither of these teams have lost this year when playing w/ three or more days rest (both 7-0 straight up), although Houston is better ATS in that situation. Just like you don't find Golden State as underdogs too often, you won't find the Rockets as this short a favorite very often. I'm sure this is the shortest number they've had to lay at home all season when healthy. The Rockets have waited all year for this game and this series. They'll show up - big time - in Game 1. 10* Houston |
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05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
8* Boston (3:35 ET): It's the same Eastern Conference Finals as last year with the Cavs taking on the Celtics. There are two rather significant differences from last year's matchup, which saw Cleveland win - rather easily - in just five games. One is that this year Boston has the homecourt edge. Two is that Kyrie Irving won't be suiting up - for either side. The Celtics thought they had pulled off a real "coup" in acquiring Irving from the Cavs via trade this past offseason. But he's missed the entire postseason w/ an injury and won't be a factor here. That hasn't stopped Boston from advancing so far, as they needed only five games to eliminate previously red hot Philadelphia. Interestingly, both teams were pushed harder in the first round (Cleveland by Indiana and Boston by Milwaukee) w/ each series going seven games while they made quicker work of their respective second round opponents than expected. Cleveland swept Toronto in the last round, an incredibly impressive performance considering the Raptors were the top seed and won 59 regular season games. While you can write off the Raptors as "choke artists" all you want (Cavs swept them in the 2nd round LY as well), there's no underselling the brilliance of LeBron James at this point. He's averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in the playoffs. But the big question here is what kind of help will he get? He got very little in the Indiana series before several players stepped up against Toronto. But the Celtics are a much better defensive team than the Raptors. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. That's a far cry from the Cavaliers, who were 28th! Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS at home in the postseason. Incredibly, this will be the fourth time they will have been an underdog. It's pretty clear to me that this team has been wildly underrated in the wake of the Irving injury. They are 23-8 ATS as underdogs this season, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home (9-1 SU). The Celtics finished the regular season w/ the best ATS record in the league. Contrast that w/ Cleveland, who was the WORST ATS team in the league and is still just 21-48 ATS as a favorite. Playing w/ three or more days rest, the Celtics are 4-1 SU/ATS while the Cavs are 0-3 SU/ATS. LeBron has been otherworldly, but I don't think that alone can be enough in Game 1. 8* Boston |
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05-09-18 | 76ers -1 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): It's well-known that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series in NBA playoff history. The chances of it happening here remain small, but the Sixers did stay alive for another day by taking Game 4, 103-92 as seven-point chalk. It's worth noting that Philly has been favored in every game during the series, so them falling behind three games to none was quite the shock. The price came down for Game 4 and I think remains at an appropriate price for Game 5 here in Boston. Remember that the Sixers were in control in Game 2 (led by as many as 22) and Game 3 was an overtime affair that certainly could have gone either way. They were able to win Game 4 despite a poor shooting effort. Boston has gotten by short-handed so far in the playoffs, but another body has dropped (Shane Larkin) and I'll call for the 76ers to stay alive for another day and take Game 5. The Sixers came into this series having won 20 of 21 games and were -400 on the money line to advance. In retrospect, that was pretty clearly a case of bad pricing by the oddsmakers, but the initial read still should be respected. Especially seeing as Boston has been far from dominant since winning Game 1. Sure, Philly was not going to be able to maintain its ridiculous winning percentage. I said that coming into the series when I took the Celtics (as home dogs) in the opener. Though they have not shot well in the series, charting the games, Philadelphia has had the better shot selection. We know Boston was #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but I suspect the Sixers' shots are about to start falling. TJ McConnell got the surprise start in Game 4 and led the way w/ 19 pts on 9 of 12 shooting. I suspect we'll see more of him here. The play of Ben Simmons has been a real "sore spot" for Sixers' fans in this series, but the good news is his shooting can only get better. Meanwhile, I just don't trust Boston to find consistent scoring w/o Kyrie Irving. Something not talked about enough w/ the Sixers is that the ranked in the top five in defensive efficiency (during the reg season), just like the Celtics. They've actually been better on the defensive end here in the playoffs. Boston has shot better than 46% in just three of their 11 playoff games so far. While I still have my doubts that the Sixers pull off the miracle (i.e. come back to win the series), I do think they'll force a Game 6 back at home. 10* Philadelphia |
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05-08-18 | Pelicans +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (10:35 ET): ): It certainly would appear as if we're destined for a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals. Both teams enter Tuesday up three games to one in their respective series and are at home tonight. The idea that the Pelicans could beat the Warriors three straight times seems pretty laughable to be honest, so it's only a matter of time before their season comes to a close. Anthony Davis and company are double digit dogs for Game 5 following a 118-92 loss in Game 4 Monday night. They have just two wins over Golden State in the last three seasons, Game 3 included. But they did cover the spread here in Oakland in Game 2 (lost by only five) and because everyone is going to be so quick to "write them off," I think there's value here. Take the points. It was a wire to wire win in Game 4 for the Dubs, led by Kevin Durant's 38 points. Steph Curry is back and he had 23 pts as well. The team has won its last 14 home playoff games (a streak that dates back to last season), so they have to be feeling confident coming into tonight. But let's not forget the call the pointspread the "great equalizer" for a reason. Golden State is only 18-26 ATS at home this year and was a bottom five team overall at the betting window during the regular season. The spread tonight is higher than it was in Games 1 and 2 and we can use that to our advantage. It's not like New Orleans is any weaker here than they were going into the first two games in Oakland. The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS overall their last 13 games. Golden State isn't the only team in this series that can score. New Orleans averages 111.6 PPG. Only the Warriors and Rockets averaged more during the regular season. A team that can score that much seems pretty dangerous as a double digit dog, no? Any team w/ Anthony Davis on its roster has a fighting chance in my opinion. Davis had 26 pts and 12 rebounds in Game 4 and that was considered an "off-night" as he committed a game-high six turnovers and was just 8 of 22 from the field. Game 3 was a different story, however, as he had 33 pts and 18 rebounds. He's averaging nearly 14 rebounds per game in the series in addition to more than 26 points. Consider this: since X-Mas, the Pelicans have been double digit dogs just two times (one was Game 2). They covered both time. 8* New Orleans |
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05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +5 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): Just as I did in Game 2 of this series, I'll be using the old "zig zag theory" (taking ATS loser of previous game) here in Game 4. The zig-zag theory is by no means "foolproof," but I do think its often a way to seize upon some great value, particularly when taking an underdog that was blown out in last game. Game 1 saw Utah lose 110-96 (trailed by 25 at half), only to bounce back and stun the Rockets in Game 2, 116-108 as double digit road dogs. But Game 3 was a giant step back for the Jazz as they lost at home, 113-92. In six meetings w/ the Rockets this season, the Jazz have lost by double-digits five times. While that hardly sounds inspiring, that's not in any way indicated of what this team is capable of and remember I'm already 3-0 in this series. Take the points w/ the home dog. The big story coming into Game 4 is the status of starting Utah PG Ricky Rubio. He hasn't played since injuring his hamstring in the close out game of the Oklahoma City series, but the team is "optimistic" that he will play here today. With Rubio out of the lineup, rookie Donovan Mitchell has been forced into point guard duty and I think it's safe to say that move has affected his game for the worse. Mitchell is shooting just 32.2% for the series. As a team, Utah has not shot well in either loss this series as they were 41.7% overall from the field in Game 3 despite making 11 of 29 three-point attempts. But with or without Rubio, I'm willing to call for a bounce back as the Jazz are 31-14 SU at home this season, shooting 46.5%. They also allow only 97.1 PPG here. Remember this was the #2 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. As a home dog, they had been 7-3 straight up and against the spread prior to losing Game 3. Houston had allowed 50% shooting in four of its last five games before holding Utah in check Friday night. That includes both Games 1 and 2 in Houston. The Rockets are certainly the more talented team here, thanks to James Harden and Chris Paul, but have actually not been very good when one or both are off the floor. They're also just 21 of 73 from three-point range the L2 games. They took a lot more mid-range 2's in Game 3 and found success, but I wouldn't count on that happening again here. The Jazz are basically playing for their season tonight, so I expect a much better effort - on both ends of the floor from them. Remember what I said in my Game 2 analysis; this Jazz team hasn't lost B2B games (with the exception of the meaningless reg season finale/playoff opener) since before MLK Day. 10* Utah |
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05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): Game 1 of this second round series took place Sunday afternoon and was the fifth time this season that the Jazz and Rockets faced off. For a fifth time, it was Houston prevailing in lopsided fashion, doing so 110-96 as 11.5-pt chalk. The Rockets are now 5-0 SU and ATS against the Jazz this year, every win coming by a minimum of 11 pts. The average margin of victory has been 16.8 points per game. As someone who "stood on the sidelines" for the Game 1 spread (I instead cashed the Under), I have to say "isn't it time for Utah to play Houston close?" Now not having Ricky Rubio (strained left hamstring) definitely hurts - both literally and figuratively - but I believe the Jazz can overcome his absence by playing their usual brand of defense (#2 in efficiency during regular season) and at least cover the spread here. Take the points. Game 1 was never really close as Houston jumped out to 13-point lead by the end of the first quarter and pretty much coasted from there. They led by 25 at halftime and by 18 entering the fourth quarter. The Rockets shot 53.1% from three-point range, making 17 of 32 attempts w/ seven of those coming from James Harden (career playoff-high). Harden had 41 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the game as the usually defensively-minded Jazz had no answers. I had thought the Houston-Minnesota series would offer up a blueprint for Utah to defend Harden, but it was to no avail. If you recall, early on in Round 1, Harden struggled when the T'wolves sank their big man, Karl-Anthony Towns, in the paint to prevent drives. With Rudy Gobert in the middle, I thought the Jazz would do better than they did in Game 1. Fortunately for them, it was only "one game." Utah missed 15 of its 22 three-point attempts and missing 9 of 22 free throws certainly didn't help matters either. I expect the team to improve in both areas for Game 2. Something to keep in mind here is that the Jazz closed the regular season on a 29-6 run. While there was a stretch back in March where they dropped three of five, they haven't lost B2B games (save for the reg season finale (meaningless)/playoff opener) since before MLK Day! Including the playoffs, this is a team that has won 33 of 42 games and getting double digits. I think they can keep it close here against Houston, for a change. The quick turnaround between series did Utah no favors (eliminated OKC on Friday), but here they've had two days in between games. Houston is just 5-10 ATS this season playing w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Utah |
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05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world (and no worse than the 2nd best player ever), but Cleveland is not a great team. Throughout my analysis of their 1st round series vs. Indiana, I mentioned how the Cavs finished the regular season ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. That was ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. Speaking of that 1st round series (which just ended Sunday, mind you), it went the distance (seven games) and the Cavs four wins were by a combined 14 points. None were by greater than four. Meanwhile, two of their three losses were by 18 or more points and they were outscored by 40 pts in the series. That's the worst total point differential for any team that won a playoff series since 1984! Now Toronto has an ugly past to overcome here. Namely, they've only won two playoff Game 1's in franchise history, one of those coming in the last round vs. Washington. They've been eliminated each of the last two years by the Cavaliers, even getting swept last year. However, there are signs that 2018 could be a little different. Namely, the Raptors have the homecourt advantage this year. In the regular season, they owned the best home point differential in the entire league. They won all three home games in the 1st round vs. Washington, all by eight points or more. Yes, they did drop two of three regular season meetings w/ Cleveland. But both losses came on the road and were by six points or less. The one meeting that took place here North of the Border (back in January) saw the Raptors win by 34 points! Had I told you before the series that Cleveland would allow only 100.6 points per game to Indiana, you would probably assume that they'd advance w/ relative ease, not be taken the distance. But despite allowing more than 101 pts just one time, the Cavs needed a full seven games. Tristan Thompson and George Hill stepped up big on Sunday, but overall James had little to no help in the series. LeBron led the team in all five major statistical categories and scored 3x as much as any other Cav. The quick turnaround between series does the visitors no favors here. Let's not forget Cleveland barely outscored its opponents during the regular season. It would take another superhuman effort from James just for the Cavs to have a chance here and I can't see him averaging 34.4 PPG on 55% shooting again like he did vs. the Pacers. 10* Toronto |
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04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): Well, according to oddsmakers and pundits, it seems as if a "changing of the guard" has already taken place even before this series has begun. Going into Sunday, Philadelphia was the betting favorite to win the Eastern Conference (though that could change based on Cleveland advancing). But what is for certain is that the Sixers are favored not only to win this series (-400 odds last I looked!); they're favored in Boston for Game 1. Given the Celtics' lack of health, maybe that shouldn't be a surprise. Plus, Philly has won 20 of its last 21 games. But I'll hang my hat w/ the home dog that is getting no respect here, noting the fact they were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. A long layoff also could leave the 76ers a tad rusty. Take the points. These teams met four times during the regular season w/ Boston winning three of them. But not much can be ascertained by those individual results, considering the Celtics had Irving and the Sixers hadn't totally matured yet. The last meeting, which took place all the way back on January 18th, saw Philadelphia win here in Boston by a score of 89-80. Going into that game, the Sixers' record was 20-20. They finished the regular season at 52-30 and the finished off the Heat in just five games in Round 1. Three of the four wins were by double-digits, but don't think for a second that the Celtics are on par w/ the Heat. The homecourt advantage in Boston is very real as is evident by the fact the Celtics won all four home games in Round 1. Boston is also 20-7 ATS as a dog this season, including a perfect 8-0 at home (7-1 straight up)! So, when they're undervalued like this, it's often the best time to strike. Going to back to them losing the last regular season matchup to the Sixers, Brad Stevens' team is a remarkable 65-36 ATS playing w/ revenge the L3 seasons, including 20-5 ATS this season. Now, I realize they don't have Irving and could also be without Jaylen Brown in Game 1. But the defense is the key. After a shaky start to the Milwaukee series, the Celtics allowed an average of just 93.3 PPG the last three games. The Sixers, as successful as they've been down the stretch, still allow an average of 107.1 PPG on the road. Then there is the matter of that 20-1 SU stretch, will be difficult (if not impossible) to maintain. 10* Boston |
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04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Both of these teams made it look pretty easy in Round 1. With Golden State, that really wasn't much of a surprise as they were facing a depleted San Antonio squad (minus Kawhi Leonard) that also was dealing w/ the wife of their head coach passing away. The Warriors didn't sweep, but considering they were w/o Steph Curry (questionable to play tonight), finishing the series in five games has to be considered a "victory" in every sense of the word. Three of the four victories came by double digits. As for New Orleans, arguably no team in the playoffs has exceeded expectations any more than they have. They shockingly swept Portland, also going 4-0 ATS in the process. The Pelicans have now covered nine in a row, but I think they're overvalued coming into this series. Lay the points. Over the last three seasons, New Orleans has beaten Golden State only once in 11 tries. That came in the final regular season meeting this year, 126-120, right here in Oakland. That game was played earlier this month and while the Warriors did have Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson all active, they were a different team at the time. All three of those players, in addition to Curry, had missed time due to injury and were still trying to "get their legs back." Both teams shot the ball remarkably well in that game, but Golden State getting to the free throw line only 11 times (and making just 7) really hurt in the end. The "wild card" here is Curry's potential return, which will happen sometime in this series, possibly as early as tonight. Incredibly, New Orleans is 2-26 SU the L28 meetings w/ Golden State, including a four-game sweep in the first round back in 2015. That sweep was the only time previous to this year that Anthony Davis had ever been in the postseason. He certainly made this chance count w/ a dominant effort against the Blazers as he averaged 33 points and 12 rebounds per game. But I see no way the Pelicans perform as well here as they did in Round 1. Of the eight playoff teams in the Western Conference, New Orleans had the worst point differential in the regular season. I think the draw vs. Portland was a fortunate one as the Blazers were lucky to finish third in the Conference. The Pelicans' poor defensive numbers may also come back to haunt them in this series as they gave up 110.4 PPG in the reg season, most among all playoff teams. Golden State was again the top team in offensive efficiency this year and led the league w/ a 113.5 PPG scoring average. The Dubs are also always underrated defensively as they finished tied for seventh in efficiency during the regular season. This is a team that has lost only two games in its last five playoff series. Curry or no Curry, I see the Warriors taking Game 1 rather easily. 10* Golden State |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-97 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): The home team has won and covered all five games in this series w/ the Celtics now holding a 3-2 lead after Tuesday's 92-87 win as 4.5-pt favorite. Personally, I went w/ the Under, which was a ridiculously easy winner (cashed by 25 pts) after each of the first four games finished Over the total. So now Milwaukee is facing elimination, but back home where they took both Games 3 and 4. Their second win came on a last-second tip-in by Giannis Antetokounmpo, but because Game 3 was so lopsided, the Bucks have actually outscored the Celtics in the series. But something I predicted for Game 5 came to fruition and that's Milwaukee's hot shooting of the past few games would start to cool off, thanks to a Boston defense which ranked #1 in efficiency during the regular season. Sure enough it did as the Bucks shot just 36.8% in Game 5. I'll hang my hat w/ that Boston defense yet again for Game 6, this time taking the points. The Celtics are no slouch when it comes to getting points. They are 20-6 ATS as dogs this season. They are also 28-14 ATS in road games. We've already touched on the defense, which has been the calling card under HC Brad Stevens. The Celtics allowed the fewest number of points per game in the regular season in addition to being first in efficiency. The loss of several players, most notably Kyrie Irving, has not and should not effect them at all on that end of the floor. Now, offensively, the team has struggled to shoot the ball in this series. They've shot just 43.8% in this series and that percentage would be much lower had they not connected at a 53.3% clip. But just like Milwaukee's previously hot shooting was due to hit a "speedbump," I feel Boston's is due to improve. Marcus Smart is also now back, remember. Milwaukee is the only entrant in the playoff field that was outscored during the regular season. They trailed by as many as 16 points in Game 5. It was 18 turnovers from the Celtics, who were also scoreless for a five-minute stretch in the third quarter, that kept the Bucks in the game. If you followed my excellent NCAA Tournament run, then you already know how much I value play on the defensive end of the floor and especially when the better defensive team is getting points. The Bucks are also just 14-26-3 ATS in home games this season. 10* Boston |
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04-23-18 | Thunder +5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 96-113 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): The Thunder fell behind in this best of seven series, two games to one, w/ a 115-102 loss on Friday. After taking Game 1, OKC has now dropped back to back games and would be in REAL trouble were they to lose again here. Oddly, after getting off to poor starts in both home games, the Thunder raced out to a 30-22 advantage at the end of the 1st quarter in Game 3. But they found themselves down by halftime and a surprising triple double from Jazz PG Ricky Rubio led to the final result. The Thunder shot the ball well enough, but were outrebounded badly. Given how Utah tends to defend here in Salt Lake, wasting a good shooting night can end up as a big missed opportunity when viewed in retrospect. But I'll take the points here in Game 4 as I expect the Thunder to play better. I'd go ahead and guarantee that we won't be seeing another triple double from Rubio, but Russell Westbrook has already beaten me to the punch in that regard. Westbrook has declared that he will see to it. It would also help if the All-Star point guard shot better than 5 for 17 like he did in Game 3. I suspect he will and thus finish w/ more than 14 points. Though he continues to post good all-around numbers, Westbrook has really struggled in both Thunder losses in this series, going for just 33 total pts on 12 of 36 shooting. Paul George has played well, but Carmelo Anthony has been persona non grata, averaging just 15.3 PPG in the series. The Thunder are 7-4 SU off a double digit loss this season and rarely are a dog in that role (as they are here). Utah was my 10* Game of the Week in Game 2 (plus the points) and rewarded me there w/ a straight up victory. I wasn't surprised to see them win Game 3 either, but now I question the number of points they're being asked to lay. This has been a great team down the stretch obviously as they've won 30 of their last 37 games overall. But in eight meetings this year w/ the Thunder, they've been favored by more than 1.5 pts just twice and Friday was the first time. The Jazz also shot well in Game 3, better overall than the Thunder in fact, and I don't see them hitting 52.5% overall from the field again. Nor do I see B2B blowouts, so again, taking the points is the way to go. 10* Oklahoma City |
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04-21-18 | Blazers +7 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-131 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Portland (5:05 ET): Needless to say, the third-seeded Trail Blazers did NOT expect to find themselves in the current situation going into Game 4. That would be down 0-3 in the series and facing elimination. They've been thoroughly outclassed by the Pelicans w/ the margin of defeat growing greater every game. But, as a result of that, we've seen a massive swing in the pointspread from Game 1. After being six-point favorites for Games 1 & 2, the Blazers are now six-point DOGS here in Game 4. I came into this series thinking New Orleans was the undervalued team (cashed them as a 10* in Gm 1) and was proven right, but now things have shifted too far in the other direction. It's predictable, given what we have seen in the first three games, but I can't see Portland going down w/o a fight and this is too many points to lay for the Pelicans. Take the points. New Orleans thoroughly dominanted Game 3 here at home, taking a 64-45 advantage by halftime and never looking back. They are the highest seed (6th) to take a 3-0 series led in the NBA playoffs since '01, so yes, this is a surprise. Personally, I didn't buy Portland as the third best team in the West coming out of the regular season, but a case could also be made that the Pelicans weren't the sixth best team either. They do have a virtually identical net efficiency rating compared to Portland (which is why I thought they were the undervalued team in Gms 1 & 2), but now "the shoe is on the other foot." Also, the Pelicans' regular season point differential ranked 15th out of the 16 playoff teams and was just ninth in the West. There's all sorts of finger-pointing going on in the Pacific Northwest right now and for good reason. Head coach Terry Stotts may not survive if his team is swept here as his career playoff record is very bad (12-27 SU). Also, leading scorer Damian Lillard has REALLY struggled with the different defensive looks New Orleans has thrown at him in this series. He's averaging only 18.3 PPG in the series (down from almost 27.0 in the reg season) on 32.7% shooting, including 8 of 25 from three-point range. I have to believe he's going to play better here in Game 4. At the same time, I just can't see the Pelicans' Nikola Mirotic playing as well as he did (30 points) in Game 3. No team seeded sixth or lower has ever swept a series since the NBA did away w/ the best of five first round scenario some time ago. The Blazers are 6-2 ATS this season following a losing streak of three or more games. 10* Portland |
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04-20-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -118 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
8* Boston (9:35 ET): While it appears that the oddsmakers are almost "inviting" Celtics' money here, this is the other game on the Friday NBA card (see Toronto-Washington) where blindly taking the "zig zag theory" seems like a fool's errand. While the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. Case in point, after squeaking out a win and cover (needed overtime) in Game 1, Boston was far more dominant in Game 2, winning 120-106 even though they actually closed as one-point dogs at some shops. Yes, the Bucks have outshot the Celtics in both games so far, but should we be counting on that happening again and if not, it's hard to make an arguement for them, especially w/ what looks like a massive coaching advantage for the Celtics. Take the points. Bucks' HC Joe Prunty would be better served playing his starters longer, and together more, moving forward. When they're on the court, Milwaukee has arguably looked like the better team in this series. But w/ a deeper roster (despite a myriad of injuries!) and far superior coaching, the Celtics have counteracted that. They may not have Kyrie Irving for the playoffs, but Jaylen Brown has stepped up for Brad Stevens' team, scoring 50 pts in the first two games. This is just far too many points for the top defensive team in the league (in terms of efficiency) to be getting in this spot. The Celtics are a ridiculous 19-5 ATS as underdogs this season. Remember that Milwaukee is the ONLY team in the playoffs that was outscored in the regular season. Boston finished #1 at the betting window during the regular season as well, going 48-30-4 ATS overall. I already mentioned how profitable they've been as underdogs, well, they're also 27-13-1 ATS on the road. If you want to count them as underdogs from Game 2 (and like I said, they did close +1 at some shops), they are 12-1 ATS this year coming off a SU win as as dog. Consider that the Bucks shot almost 60% from the floor in Game 2 and still lost by double digits. That's pretty incredible. The likelihood of Milwaukee shooting that well again tonight, even at home, is minimal at best. They even trailed by as many as 20, again despite shooting nearly SIXTY PERCENT from the floor! If the Bucks do win here, I can't see them doing so by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for. 8* Boston |
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04-20-18 | Raptors +2 v. Wizards | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): This is one of two games on Friday's NBA card where oddsmakers are clearly anticipating "zig zag" bettors stepping in and taking the home team, down 0-2 in its respective series. But while the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. For instance, those hoping for a Washington bounce back in Game 2 (they lost Gm 1, 114-106 as 7.5-pt dogs) were rudely greeted w/ an early Raptors' firestorm and the result ended up being an even more lopsided Game 2 (130-119). Compared to the lines from the first two games of the series, it sure looks like the oddsmakers have overcompensated here. Take the points. Now I don't expect Toronto to shoot as well here as they did at home in Game 2. They scored 44 pts in the 1st quarter, had 76 by halftime and never looked back in finishing w/ 130. After making a franchise record 16 three-pointers in Game 1, the Raptors made 13 more in Game 2, though they did slow down in the 2nd half, making only two. The key was the first quarter when every starter made at least one attempt from long distance and the team was 7 of 13 overall. DeMar DeRozan matched a career playoff-high w/ 37 points. This is actually the first time in franchise history that the Raptors have led a series 2-0 and I don't think for a second they are about to let up. Note their scoring average hardly dips on the road (they still average 111.1 PPG) and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after scoring 130+ pts the previous game. Washington was not a good ATS team at home during the regular season, going just 15-24-2. They were 10-22-1 ATS when favored here in D.C., so I really don't understand this line at all. Toronto is significantly better and should still be favored on the road in this series. Yes, the Wiz are essentially "playing for their season" tonight, but this is a team that's won only one game in April and it came against an injury-riddled Boston team. Washington has won only three of its last 14 games as well. So this really isn't a very good team and I think this Raptors' team - which had the best year in franchise history - is being severely underrated right now. Toronto has shot better than 50% in both games, outrebounded Washington badly in Game 2 and led by as many as 23. 8* Toronto |
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04-18-18 | Jazz +4 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City took Game 1, 116-108 as 4.5-pt dogs. They were led by Paul George, who scored 36 pts including a Thunder franchise record eight three-pointers made (on 11 attempts!). He was 13 of 20 overall from the floor. Russell Westbrook added 29-13-8 while Carmelo Anthony had 15 pts. It hasn't always been that "easy" for OKC's "Big 3" and truthfully Game 1 wasn't all that easy, even though they led comfortably for the entirety of the second half. The Jazz did initially get out to an 11-2 lead and given their defensive exploits, I was a little surprised they surrendered it so quickly. I expect a Utah bounce back in Game 2 and will take the points as I won't be the least bit surprised if they snap a long losing streak here in OKC. The big storyline for Wednesday will be the health of two key players, one on each side. For Utah, Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable. He suffered a left foot bruise in Game 1, but did go through practice on Tuesday. More concerning though is the questionable status of George for OKC. He bruised his right hip and was less participatory in the Thunder's team practice on Tuesday. Obviously, the loss of George would be the bigger deal of the two. Sources have indicated that Mitchell will play for Utah. Regardless, I expect the other Jazz players to improve upon their collective Game 1 performances. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how OKC would replace George's lost production. Right now, I'm operating as if he will play, but even so a duplication of Gm 1 seems highly unlikely. Utah was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were the only team besides San Antonio to allow fewer than 100 points per game. Let us not forget just how hot the Jazz were in the second half of the season. Going all the way back to January 24th, this is a team that won 20 of its final 26 regular season games and never during that stretch did they drop B2B contests. Including the regular season finale, now they have, putting them into a rare situation where we can also grab some points. It has been over three months since Utah last lost three straight times. Really, outside of a poor December (that bled into the start of January), this was a remarkably good team. At one point, they lost 13 of 16 games. Other than that streak, they have won 45 of 66 this season! Oklahoma City was NOT a good bet during the regular season, going 24-41 ATS as a favorite. They were also only 2-14 ATS vs. division opponents. 10* Utah |
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04-18-18 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Followers of the famed "zig-zag" theory (bet ATS loser of previous game) will surely be on the Cavaliers here after the favorite was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1 at home, losing 98-80 as seven-point chalk. As someone who was personally on the Pacers, even I have to admit that I was stunned at the ease w/ which they rolled to victory. The 80 pts allowed marked a season-low for Indiana and keep in mind it came against a team that has LeBron James, averages 110.5 PPG and ranked fifth in the regular season in offensive efficiency. But in all due respect to those "zig zag" players, I've got a bit of a different read on this series. I came into the postseason feeling the Cavs would be overrated. After all, they were a league-worst 32-49-1 ATS in the regular season. Maybe Cleveland bounces back and wins Game 2, but they won't cover. Take the points. It wasn't just that the Cavs were the worst team in the league at the pay window in the regular season. It's that they set fire to their backers' bankroll when favored, going 19-43-1 ATS. As discussed extensively in my Gm 1 analysis, this team has major issues defensively where they ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only lowly Sacramento and Phoenix. Among playoff teams, only New Orleans gives up more points per game. Shockingly though, defense was not the issue in Game 1, offense was. James posted another triple double, but the other four starters combined for just 25 pts. The team shot only 38.5% overall from the field, including 8 of 34 from three-point range and missed 8 of their 20 free throw attempts. Sure, I expect the offensive numbers to improve in Game 2, but if I'm a Cavs fan, there should be a fear about the old defensive issues costing them. Certainly, the inefficiencies on defense can be directly tied to the terrible ATS record from the regular season. Indiana has now beaten Cleveland four times in five matchups this year. They incredibly jumped out to a 21-pt lead in the first quarter Sunday and led by as many as 23. Cleveland did cut it to seven in the 2H, but got no closer than that. Victor Oladipo, the Pacers' best player, led the way w/ 32 points. Something else I mentioned in my Game 1 analysis is that even though Indiana is just 5-11 SU vs. Cleveland the L3 seasons, they are 11-4-1 ATS. True to form, here in Cleveland, they are now 2-7 SU in Cleveland and 7-2 ATS. Indiana's only loss to Cleveland this year came on a day when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor and still the final margin was only seven. Over the L3 seasons, Cleveland is 13-35 ATS when off a double digit loss (5-15 ATS this year) and 2-11 ATS after scoring 85 pts or less the previous game. 8* Indiana |
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04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): We caught a really bad break w/ the Bucks in Game 1 as overtime once again proved to be "an underdog bettor's worst friend." In retrospect, I gladly would have taken the SU loss w/ the Bucks in regulation. Taking four points from the oddsmakers, they were down three when Khris Middleton hit a near halfcourt heave w/ no time remaining to force OT. While that miracle shot gave the Bucks "second life," it proved to be our undoing as they wound up losing by six points. Worst of all is that, down four and w/ little chance to win, they fouled w/ just a few seconds remaining. They now get a chance at revenge in Game 2 and my read on this series remains unchanged as Boston is no more healthy than they were going into Game 1. Take the points. Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 66 pts in Game 1 while Malcolm Brogden scored all of his 16 pts after halftime. Still, it was not enough. But Antetokounmpo has certainly had Boston's number this season as he's averaged over 33 pts, 11 rebounds and 5 assists per game. He's also shooting over 50 percent from the field. Unfortunately for the Bucks, he fouled out in overtime. One has to wonder if the Bucks could have pulled off the upset had he not. What we do know is the Bucks beat the Celtics twice in the regular season. One of those was in a great spot (2nd game of the year after Boston had just lost Gordon Hayward), but the other was late in the year when Boston was w/o Kyrie Irving. They've done it before and can do it again. Not only are the Celtics w/o Irving and Hayward, they don't have Marcus Smart or Daniel Theis either. This is what I said in my Game 1 analysis: "It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring." Nothing I wrote there has changed in 48 hours. Boston may have been #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but the Bucks shot better in Game 1 and I don't expect Terry Rozier to go off again in Game 2. 8* Milwaukee. |
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04-15-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-80 | Win | 100 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
10* Indiana (3:35 ET): The East is wide open and because they have LeBron James, Cleveland comes in as the betting favorite to win its fourth consecutive conference crown. I suppose its not difficult to understand why. Toronto (#1 seed) has an ugly postseason history. Boston (#2 seed) has a ton of injuries, including one to their best player, Kyrie Irving. Philadelphia (#3 seed) is both young and unproven. Yet, the Cavs are no "slam dunk" this postseason in my view. They're the fourth seed for many reasons, not the least of which is they were terrible defensively in the regular season, ranking 28th in efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix). They were also a disaster at the betting window, going a league worst 32-49-1 ATS, including 19-43 when favored! They did sweep these Pacers in the 1st round of LY's playoffs, but three of those games were decided by six pts or less and Indiana is improved now. This will be a hard fought Game 1 and likely series. The Pacers surprised everyone in going 48-34 SU in the regular season. Most did not think they were going to be a playoff team when they dealt Paul George away in the offseason, but led by Victor Oladipo, here they are. They actually finished w/ a better point differential than Cleveland in the regular season, so judging by that metric, this spread is way too high. Indiana also finished tied for 12th in defensive efficiency. They did fail to cover the regular season finale (meant nothing), but note they've only failed to cover in B2B games one time since the beginning of March. Including last year's playoff series, Cleveland is 11-5 SU vs. Indiana the L3 seasons, but just 4-11-1 ATS. So while they usually beat the Pacers, the games are often close. True to that form, here in Cleveland, Indiana is 1-7 SU, but 6-2 ATS. Indiana won three of the four regular season matchups this year, only losing the final one when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor (and still only won by seven). I really can't stress just how bad the Cavs are on the defensive end and it's going to prevent them from winning here in the playoffs by any kind of significant margin. Also, Indiana was 4-0 SU/ATS when playing w/ three or more days rest in the regular season and actually finished w/ a winning road record. 10* Indiana |
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04-15-18 | Bucks +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -101 | 41 h 41 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (1:05 ET): This is not your "normal" matchup of a #2 and #7 seed in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Obviously, something must be "afoul" for me to endorse a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season. If the last game of the regular season was any indication, then they clearly don't fear the Celtics as they put forth a rather shameful effort in losing 130-95 at Philadelphia. They entered that game w/ a chance to move up to sixth and possibly play either the Sixers or Cavs w/ a win. Perhaps Boston is the better matchup though. After all, the Celtics are going to be without Kyrie Irving for the entirety of the playoffs, no longer how long they last. I believe Boston is ripe for a Round 1/Game 1 upset. Take the points. These teams split four regular season matchups. In those four games, Bucks' superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 33.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and shot 53.9% from the field. He also averaged 10.5 free throw attempts per game. I look him to be the difference maker in the series. Clearly, if Milwaukee is to advance, it will be him carrying the team. Perhaps most telling of those four regular season matchups was the last one when Milwaukee won 106-102 on April 3rd. Antetokounmpo scored 29pts against an Irving-less Celtics team, but most encouraging of all is that the team was able to go on 11-3 and 16-4 runs while he was on the bench. Milwaukee was generally overpriced on a game by game basis in the regular season, but I like them more as dogs. Not only is Boston w/o Kyrie, they also don't have Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring. Sure, the C's were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, but the Bucks shot 54.4% from the field in the last meeting. In the second half of the season, Boston went just 8-13 SU against teams that had a winning record. 8* Milwaukee |
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04-14-18 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Blazers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (10:35 ET): Truthfully, I was hoping these teams would be matched up w/ Oklahoma City and Utah, whom I like more than both of these two. But, "the matchups are the matchups," and let's explore what we have here. Portland is the three seed in the Western Conference even though their YTD point differential ranked just sixth in the conference and their net efficiency rating is actually tied w/ New Orleans for seventh best. Now the Pelicans had some good fortune in earning the six seed as well as they were 7-3 SU in games decided by three points or less, not to mention a somewhat preposterous 7-2 SU in overtime games (obviously some overlap there). At the end of the day, I'm just not as high on Portland as others seem to be and see them as a clear fade (when favored) here in the postseason. Take the points. New Orleans lost Boogie Cousins during the regular season, but they still have Anthony Davis and he alone is good enough to carry the team to a series win here. Davis was second in the league in scoring (28.1 PPG), fifth in rebounding (11.1 per game) and 1st in PER. Because of injury, he played in only two full games vs. Portland during the regular season. He dominated, scoring 36 pts both times and I don't see either of Terry Stotts' options - Jusuf Nurkic or Al-Farouq Aminu - being able to stop him here. Remember, the Blazers are down a starter as well for Game 1 as forward Maurice Harkless is still out after knee surgery. As hot as the Blazers were down the stretch, the Pelicans have gone 20-8 straight up their last 28 games overall and they were a surprisingly good road team as well, going 24-17 SU. They were even better at the pay window, going 26-15 ATS. None of the four regular season matchups were decided by more than 10 pts w/ the last two each decided by just four points. When these teams met roughly three weeks ago in the Big East, the Pelicans lost only 107-103 despite missing 20 of 24 three-point attempts. That's not likely to happen again as even on the road, they shoot 37.2% from distance. This is an underdog that can score (111.7 PPG) making it difficult to lay points against them and in all due respect to Damian Lillard, the Pelicans will have the best player on the floor. Over its final regular season games, New Orleans averaged a whopping 121.2 PPG while Portland averaged just 98.4 PPG. In particular, the Blazers' three-point shooting was bad down the stretch. In fact, over the last 15 games, they are shooting less than 25% from behind the arc in the 4th quarter. That could come back to haunt them here as the Pelicans should easily stay within the number and possibly pull the outright upset. 10* New Orleans |
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04-11-18 | Jazz +4 v. Blazers | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:35 ET): This game will decide the third seed in the Western Conference. Utah and Portland come into this regular season finale tied at 48-33. Amazingly, only two games separate third from ninth in the West. So it remains to be seen how far the loser could drop. The bottom line though is I'm "all about" taking the points w/ a red-hot Jazz team (won 6 straight) getting points. Yes, the game is in Portland, but Utah grades out as the better team in just about every way (whether you're talking net efficiency or straight point differential), so taking the points seems like a luxury. The Jazz are one of only two teams allowing fewer than 100 PPG for the season. Utah has also "discovered" an offense during the current win streak, averaging 117.2 points the L5 games. Four of those victories have come by double digits, including a 119-79 demolition of Golden State last night. You can talk about how the Warriors didn't have Steph Curry, but Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all played. It was the Dubs' worst loss (40 pts) of the Steve Kerr era as the Jazz held them to 35 percent shooting and led the entire way! I'm not even concerned w/ this being the second game of a back to back either as no Jazz player logged more than 28 minutes last night! Just how good has this team been, you ask? They have gone 29-5 SU the L34 games, which is tied w/ the Rockets for the best record in the league during that time. Meanwhile, Portland has been struggling of late. They've lost four in a row and were held to 82 pts on 33 percent shooting in their last game, at Denver. Now all four losses came on the road, but it goes w/o saying which team has the "momentum" coming into this game. I've said multiple times that the Blazers weren't necessarily as good as their record. Going by both net efficiency and point differential, they are the sixth best team in the West. The offensive struggles go beyond just the Denver game and this is not the opponent where those struggles are likely to be corrected. Since their 13-game win streak ended, the Blazers have gone just 4-7 SU overall. 8* Utah |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Philadelpha (7:05 ET): The 76ers are the hottest team in the league right now, having won 12 in a row and they've covered the spread in the last 10 wins! Nine of those 10 wins have been by double digits. Cleveland comes in having won five straight and 10 of its last 11 after pulling the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" last night against Washington. Down 17 w/ just over seven minutes remaining, the Cavs prevailed 119-115 behind LeBron James' 33 points. The winner of this game will be in third place, at least for the time being, in what is all of a sudden a VERY wide open Eastern Conference (w/ Kyrie Irving done for the year in Boston and Toronto slumping). By the numbers, Philly has been a better team this season than Cleveland, so I'll lay the pts even w/o Embiid. Only three teams - Houston, Golden State and Toronto - have outscored opponents by a wider margin this year than has Philadelphia. That's pretty incredible. Again, they won nine straight by double digits before beating Detroit "only" 115-108 and note they led that game by 17 entering the fourth quarter. They have scored 115 or more in eight of the last nine games and should easily be able to take advantage of a Cleveland defense that is 28th in defensive efficiency - ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. The Sixers beat the Cavs, in Cleveland, 108-97 back on March 1st, snapping a long head to head losing streak. Philly has been one of the best teams to bet on this year, especially at home where they are 26-11 ATS. Meanwhile, Cleveland has largely been a disaster at the pay window, going a league-worst 30-48-1 ATS. They have been a lot better of late and have turned a profit as an underdog. But, there's no underestimating the effect of having to comeback last night and then playing on the road. Also, while the Cavs are 28th in defensive efficiency, the Sixers are 3rd. Cleveland has the worst ATS record in the league; Philly has the 2nd best ATS record. The Cavs may be a half game up in the standings, but they have the point differential of a 42-win team, not a 49-win one. Meanwhile, the Sixers have the point differential of a 51-win team. 10* Philadelphia |
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04-05-18 | Wolves +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 96-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (10:35 ET): This is a huge game in the Western Conference playoff picture and can go a long way in determining how the final few spots shake out. The way things stand now is that three teams - Houston, Golden State and Portland - have all clinched. That is also almost 100% likely to be the order of the top three seeds as well. (Houston has clinched #1, GSW clinched #2, Portland all but has clinched #3). After that, seven teams are fighting for five spots and separated by just three games. Both these two are in "the thick of it," yet trending in opposite directions of late. Minnesota, who has been as high as third in the standings, badly misses Jimmy Butler (still out) and has dropped 8 of 14. That may not sound like a terrible losing streak, but the T'wolves have fallen into seventh and are just one game ahead of ninth place Denver, who has won three in a row. The Nuggets obviously own a strong homecourt advantage as their record at the Pepsi Center is 29-10 SU. If they don't end up making the playoffs, that fate could largely be pinned on a poor 14-25 SU road record, which is actually not the worst among the playoff contenders, but pretty close. Recently, Denver has experienced some good fortune, such as B2B overtime wins over Oklahoma City and Milwaukee, then beating Indiana by only three as well. Those three wins have been by a total of seven points, so laying a number w/ them doesn't sound too prudent right now. Note that Minnesota has had their number going back to last season as the T'wolves have won the last four head to head meetings. Now they haven't met since right after X-Mas (they again meet, at Minnesota, in the regular season finale), but this division rivalry is pretty clearly going to have a huge bearing on the playoff race. I fully expect Minnesota to come out motivated here after they got drubbed, at home, by Utah on Sunday. The final score there was 121-97, in favor of the Jazz, who shot a ridiculous 60 percent from the floor and received 50 pts from the bench. As shaky as Minny has been defensively at time this season, I just don't see them being anywhere close to that poor here tonight. While still w/o Butler, remember Denver doesn't have starting PG Gary Harris, Jr either, nor are they staunch defensively. The Nuggets come in giving up an average of 108.9 PPG, which is more than the T'wolves allow. Note the rest Minnesota comes into this game with (three full days!). Surprisingly, they are 0-5 ATS when that rested this season, but also note Denver is just 1-5 SU and ATS this year when on a win streak of three or more games. So it's not a good spot for the home team, especially laying points in an important matchup. 10* Minnesota |
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04-03-18 | Blazers v. Mavs +8.5 | Top | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavericks have really been shooting themselves in the foot lately. Whether intentional (tanking?) or not, the fact that their straight up record over the last nine games is 1-8 is highly misleading. None of those losses have been by more than 11 points and in almost every loss, they've led for a significant portion of the game. Sunday at Cleveland was no exception. As 11-pt underdogs, they led outright going into the fourth quarter. But from that point on, they either a) quit or b) simply forgot how to play basketball. They scored only 10 pts over the final 12 minutes and ended up losing by 11, a push for me and anyone else that was on them. I've said it before and will say it again here. This team has played far better than its record indicates. Despite being 23-54 SU, the Mavs have only been outscored by an average of 2.6 points per game. Based on their point differential, you'd "expect" them to have 30 wins on the year. To put these numbers in some perspective, the team right above Dallas in the Western Conference standings (Sacramento) is being outscored by 7.3 points per game this year. The Mavs' YTD point differential is much closer to the 33-43 Lakers than it is to any of the other three bottom-feeders in the West. They have little (nothing) to play for at this point, but at least they're at home tonight. Their record here is 14-25 SU, but they've actually outscored their opponents! Tonight is the team's second to last home game of the year, the final one not being until the regular season finale (vs. Phoenix). Also, the Mavs' ATS record when coming off a double digit loss is 13-4 this season. Portland is the opponent tonight and this is obviously a hot team. Since the All-Star Break, they've lost only three times (16-3 overall). Sunday saw them exact some revenge for one of those losses, to Memphis of all teams, as they won 113-98 as 14.5-pt home chalk. But the team's remaining schedule is going to be a bit of a challenge. After this, it's all playoff contenders w/ three of the four games taking place on the road. They are currently third in the West, but have the sixth best net efficiency rating and sixth best point differential. So there's been some overachieving to get to this point. Something to note is that they are shooting a league worst 27.9 percent from three-point range the L6 games. On the road, they've been not nearly as good this year. I know it seems as if Dallas is tanking, but taking the points is the way to go in this Tuesday night matchup. 10* Dallas |