Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) The Yankees and Rays meet in the LDS. Though Tampa Bay finished with the best record in the American League, they are the underdogs in Game 1. We see some real value on the Rays in this situation, especially when it comes to the run line where we can get an additional 1.5 runs at a fairly reasonable price. The Rays were 8-2 against the Yankees in the regular season, beating Game 1 starter Gerritt Cole twice. While Cole has been excellent over the last month, he’s been getting a ton of run support and that doesn’t figure to be the case here as Tampa Bay goes with Blake Snell, who has been every bit as good as Cole recently and over the course of the whole season for that matter. Snell allowed just one hit to Toronto in the last series and it was the third time in the past four starts he gave up one run or less. One of the Yankees two wins in Cleveland was by one run as they had to rally back from a 4-run deficit. The Rays are 32-12 vs. righties this season, the Yankees are just 7-8 vs. lefties. While this series is being contested in San Diego, not Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay, it still matters that the Yankees weren’t a great road team in the regular season. Five of the 14 homers that Cole has allowed this year came by the Rays. Play on TAMPA BAY +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
10-05-20 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Division rivals Houston and Oakland meet in this best of five LDS. Obviously, the teams are very familiar with one another and there’s some bad blood. The A’s went 7-3 against the Astros in the regular season, 6-1 at home, but that latter record really doesn’t matter now as this series is being contested in Los Angeles. Still, the fact the A’s beat the Astros in 7 of 10 head to head matchups remains relevant. They were the better team all year as they won the AL West and had a much better run differential than Houston. Chris Bassitt will get the Game 1 nod for the A’s after a great start in the last round against the White Sox. Bassitt went 7 innings and allowed just one run as he improved his team start record this year to 9-3. He has 2.19 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. For Houston, Lance McCullers got the surprising call over Zack Greinke and we think that’ll end up being a mistake. McCullers had an 0-4 TSR in September (did not pitch against the Twins) and did not win any of his six starts away from home during the regular season (7.33 ERA, 1.71 WHIP). Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
10-02-20 | Marlins v. Cubs -190 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 6* on the CUBS These teams were rained out Thursday, so they’ll give it a go again Friday. Miami won Game 1, 5-1, scoring all of their runs in the seventh. The loss was a real “head-scratcher” for the favored Cubs, who now need to win two straight or they’re eliminated. Fortunately for them (and us), it will be Yu Darvish getting the baseball for Game 2. Darvish had a really stellar regular season with the most wins among NL starters (8) and a career-low 2.10 ERA. Since the All-Star Break of last season, he has a 2.40 ERA with 211 strikeouts vs. only 21 walks in 157 ⅔ innings. He’s exactly who the Cubs want on the mound Friday. Making his first career playoff start will be Sixto Sanchez for Miami. After five strong outings to begin his rookie season, Sanchez didn’t finish well as over the final two, he allowed nine runs in seven innings. Miami is 25-52 L77 in Game 2 of a series. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
10-01-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -150 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SD San Diego got blitzed in the first inning of Game 1 (allowed 4 runs) and never really recovered, losing 6-4. Now they face the possibility of elimination on Friday, a situation where we’ll back them. In retrospect, the decision to start Paddack in Game 1 will be second-guessed. He didn’t last long and the heavy bullpen usage yesterday leaves manager Jayce Tingler with some uncomfortable decisions for Game 3, if that’s even necessary. But tonight it’ll be Zach Davies on the mound and we look for him to be the star of the game. Davies has proven himself to be durable this season, going six or more innings in half of his starts. He was 7-4 in 12 starts (8-4 TSR) with a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Opponents hit just .216 off him and he allowed an on base percentage of only .269. In his 69 ⅓ innings pitched, he allowed just 55 hits and 63 strikeouts against only 19 walks. He’s always pitched well here at Petco Park where SD remains highly profitable to bet on this season. Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright has a 1-4 career record pitching here. Yesterday’s offensive explosion by St. Louis was rare for them and unlikely to be repeated. Padres are 6-1 L7 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Cardinals v. Padres -158 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -158 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SD San Diego enjoyed a real “breakout” 2020 season as they finished the regular season with the 2nd best run differential in all of baseball, trailing only the Dodgers. The Padres scored the third most runs and that’s despite a bit of an offensive slump in September. They have a formidable bullpen and for Game 1, Chris Paddack gets the start. Paddack ran “hot and cold” down the stretch, but does have a 1.07 WHIP at home this year. It’s good that the Padres got to secure home field advantage as they went 20-10 at Petco Park in the regular season including 9-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175. St. Louis is a team that didn’t qualify for the postseason until the final game and was downright mediocre all year. They often struggle to score runs, which should be obvious when you look back and see that they were shut out in two of the last three regular season games. They hit the fewest number of home runs this year (all teams). Kim will toe the rubber for the Cardinals in Game 1 and there’s a lot of pressure on him. The Cards have played 53 games in the last 44 days, including 11 doubleheaders, the latest of which was Friday. They may be a tired ballclub heading into the postseason. We just don’t think they can score enough to win today. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves -123 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA This line is way too short given the rather sizable disparity that exists between the two clubs, offensively. Yes, there’s an outstanding starting pitching matchup here with Bauer going for the Reds and Fried for the Braves. Looking at the respective numbers of the two Game 1 starters, it’s essentially a wash. But the problem for Bauer and the Reds is that Atlanta simply has a much stronger lineup. Cincinnati might be the weakest hitting team to have EVER made the MLB playoffs. Atlanta scored the second most runs in all of baseball, trailing only the Dodgers. At home, they averaged 6.3 runs/game while the Reds average just 3.5. It’s asking a lot of Bauer to rectify that discrepancy by himself. The Reds offense ranked dead last in all of baseball in runs scored by means other than a HR. Braves pitching happened to allow the fewest % of runs via the HR in the league. Cincinnati hit just .211 on the season, making them a great matchup for a pitcher like Fried, who is 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts this year. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
09-29-20 | Yankees -102 v. Indians | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY The Yankees and Indians meet in perhaps the most evenly matched Round 1 series. A late regular season charge got Cleveland home field here but there was a lot of Detroit and Pittsburgh mixed in there. Also, don’t forget the Indians had an eight-game losing streak at the start of the month. Their lineup can really struggle to score runs at times. They barely averaged more than four runs/game during the regular season, which is why they didn’t finish higher in the standings, despite the excellent pitching. They scored three runs or less in nearly half their games (27 times!). As good as Game 1 starter Shane Bieber was in the regular season, he is untested in the playoffs. Can’t say the same for the Yankees Gerrit Cole, who is a postseason veteran. The Yankees also won his L3 regular season starts - by a combined score of 31-3! We think a Yankees lineup that is now as healthy as it’s been all year can get to Bieber. Cole’s ERA and WHIP - 0.86 and 0.62 - in his last three starts was every bit as good as Bieber. The Indians just don’t score enough! Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
|||||||
09-29-20 | White Sox v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The A’s got a pretty tough first round draw here with the White Sox, who - despite finishing as the 7-seed - were tied for the best run differential (+60) in the American League. Not only have these teams never met in the postseason, they didn’t meet all in 2020. We’ve got Lucas Giolito starting for the White Sox and Jesus Luzardo starting for the A’s in Game 1. Oakland home games were pretty low scoring in 2020 (averaged just 7.3 runs/game) but this is a low total and the White Sox average 5.1 runs/game. That was second most in the American League and they were second in slugging as well. Chicago’s last four regular season games went Over with them allowing 10 twice. None of those were with Giolito on the mound, but we’ve got to point out the fact he’s allowed at least one home run in four of his last five starts. Luzardo got this start because he’s been so good at home, but he too had a problem with the long ball of late. Luzardo also got to pitch against a lot of weak teams in the regular season. San Diego was one of the few top-level offensive teams he faced and he gave up four runs in 4 ⅔. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-26-20 | Angels v. Dodgers -168 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS It shouldn’t take much convincing to take the Dodgers at any price. They are baseball’s best team this year and by a pretty overwhelming margin. But at this price and at home, Dodger Blue is a MUST play tonight. They face LA’s “other team,” the Angels, whom they easily defeated Friday night by a score of 9-5. Now Tony Gonsolin and his 1.26 ERA + 0.71 WHIP are set to take the mound Saturday. Gonsolin just doesn’t give up much to opposing hitters. In seven starts, he’s allowed six runs and one wasn’t even earned. At home he’s allowed just two runs total, including the unearned one. He had 10 strikeouts at Coors Field his last time out and now gets to face an Angels lineup that just hasn’t been producing at the rate you’d expect, considering they have Mike Trout. Dylan Bundy goes for the Angels tonight. While he’s arguably been their most reliable starter, that isn’t saying much as he has a 4.91 ERA this month. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
09-24-20 | A's v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER With the Dodgers having wrapped up their 8th consecutive NL West pennant the night before, they got “caught with their pants down” early last night against Oakland. They trailed 3-0 after one inning, but were still able to rally and tie the game up 4-4 heading into the ninth. But a 2-run HR by Roman Laureano in the 9th won it for Oakland. We look for less scoring in tonight’s game, the finale between two division champs. Michael Fiers starts for the Athletics. He’s done an excellent job the first time through the batting order as his ERA in the first two innings of a game is just 0.90. He also holds opposing hitters to a .145 average in those first two innings. The A’s have won more times with Fiers on the mound than any other starter this season. Fiers has also gone 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA in five career starts vs. the Dodgers. He’ll be opposed by Walker Buehler, who is coming off the DL. He’s 6-1 with a 1.01 WHIP this season. Two solid pitchers here. Only two of the A’s previous eight games have seen more than nine total runs scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-24-20 | Marlins v. Braves -161 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -161 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta has already clinched 1st place in the NL East, but that hasn’t stopped them from burying second place Miami in this series. The Braves have won the first three games, by a combined score of 25-9, and now go for the sweep on Thursday. The fact that starter Max Fried left last night’s game with another injury obviously has no bearing here. Rookie Ian Anderson will start tonight’s game. He’s been quite reliable to this point with a 2.36 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. Only Fried has better numbers among the Braves starting rotation. Anderson should expect plenty of run support on Thursday as the Braves have averaged 7.8 runs/game over the L2 weeks. They are 2nd in MLB with 99 home runs hit. Really, it’s a miracle that Miami is even in second place at this juncture. They’ve scored 89 fewer runs than the Braves this year while giving up 28 more. That’s a -42 run differential, which is obviously not indicative of a team competing for a playoff spot. Look for Miami to “fall off” in the next couple days (they’re already starting to) and Thursday starter Lopez can’t help them as he’s 1-4 in his career vs. Atlanta (5.05 ERA in 7 starts). Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
09-23-20 | Rockies v. Giants -161 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SF San Francisco did what it needed to last night and that’s win, 5-2 over the Rockies. The Giants are in the thick of the Wild Card hunt in the National League at 27-27 on the year. Two other NL teams, the Reds and Brewers, are also at .500 and at most only two of these teams can make the playoff field. (There’s also Philadelphia in the East, but they are now two games below .500 after being swept in a doubleheader Tuesday). The Giants need to take advantage of these next two games with the hapless Rockies as they’ll be finishing up the season with four games against tough San Diego. The Rockies now have virtually no shot at making the playoffs, so we expect them to “roll over.” They’ve shut down Nolan Arenado for the remainder of the season. Wednesday night’s starter, Ryan Castellani, has a 7.85 ERA in his last five appearances. While the Giants hadn’t officially announced a starter yet, it’s looking like it will be Webb and he should do fine. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
09-23-20 | A's v. Dodgers -159 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -159 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAD The Dodgers clinched their 8th consecutive NL West pennant last night by beating the A’s 7-2. Beating the A’s has to bring back memories of the LA’s last World Series Championship, which was all the way back in 1988 (they beat Oakland in that Fall Classic). Whether it’s the A’s or whomever from the American League, winning the World Series is the goal for the Dodgers in 2020 and they are the favorites having assembled the most dominant ball club in either league. They have the best record in MLB and the best run differential. We’ll back Urias on Wednesday as he has good numbers this year and has given up no more than two runs in three of his four starts this month. The Dodgers have won six of their last seven games with the last four victories all coming by a margin of at least five runs. The A’s are a pretty good team in their own right, but have been outscored 21-4 the last two times they’ve taken the field and Weds starter Manaea has a 5.16 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his five starts away from home. The Dodgers are too good not to back at the current price, especially since they’re playing at home. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
09-22-20 | Astros -170 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON Just a .500 team this year, the Astros are nowhere close to the heights of the past few seasons. Lucky for them, they are in the AL West and should easily finish in second place, which guarantees them a playoff spot for this unprecedented 2020 season. While the offseason was tumultuous for every club, Houston’s was even more so as they had to deal with the fall out of the cheating scandal. They’ll just be happy to get into the postseason this year, all things considered. Tuesday should find them in their “happy place” as they face Seattle. Despite losing to the Mariners on Monday, the Astros have gone 24-3 in this division rivalry since the start of last season. They face a pitcher in LJay Newsome that is 0-3 on the year with a 7.56 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. Framber Valdez goes for the Astros. He allowed only one run in his last start and had 11 strikeouts. Some things to know about last night’s game: it was 0-0 heading into the bottom of the 7th and Seattle didn’t get a hit until the 6th. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
09-22-20 | Phillies -185 v. Nationals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -185 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 6* on PHILLY The Phillies lost here last night by a score of 5-1. That’s a result they really can’t afford right now as they are one of many teams vying for the last remaining spots in the National League Playoffs. Adding insult to injury, Philadelphia was a sizable favorite for last night’s game here in D.C. They’re playing a doubleheader on Tuesday and find themselves as an even larger favorite for Game 1. That’s because they have Aaron Nola starting. Nola, despite a 5-5 TSR, has been the Phillies best starter in 2020. He’s posted 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in 10 starts. The last one was a bit shaky (walked 5 batters), but you have to remember that Nola had a combined 20 strikeouts his previous two starts and he’s 2-0 against the Nationals this year, having allowed just two runs on seven hits in 15 innings of work. Nola has given up 1 run or less in half his starts. With Nola on the mound, Philly has a huge edge in starting pitching this afternoon. Washington will go with Voth, who is winless over his nine starts with a 7.17 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. The Phillies had been 6-0 vs. the Nationals this season prior to the loss yesterday. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
|||||||
09-21-20 | Marlins v. Braves -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA The last time the Marlins and Braves met, Atlanta delivered a historic 29-9 win. That was the most runs scored in a game in franchise history. They hit seven home runs and had an 11-run inning. It wasn’t quite that easy on Sunday, but the Braves are off a 7-0 win over the Mets. They’ve been scoring a lot of runs lately as we had them on Friday when they beat the Mets 15-2. All this run scoring has opened up a three-game advantage over the Marlins, who have been decidedly mediocre despite being a second place team. Putting Miami at a pretty severe disadvantage Monday is the fact they’ve played two doubleheaders in the last three days. They split both. One was Sunday and the loss came by a score of 15-0. They scored just two runs in 14 innings of baseball yesterday. Trevor Rogers starts tonight for Miami. He has a 6.00 ERA in six prior outings. Atlanta goes with Tomlin, whose five previous starts have all been against either Washington or Philadelphia. He’ll be happy to see a different lineup today, one that has been shutout three times in its last eight games. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
09-20-20 | Cardinals -159 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST LOUIS Pittsburgh is very bad and they should be putting up very little resistance this final week of the regular season. While it’s true that the Pirates did win the series opener with the Cardinals on Thursday, they’ve since dropped three in row including a doubleheader on Friday and a 5-4 game yesterday. That leaves the Bucs at 15-37 on the season and their -87 run differential is baseball’s worst. (So is the won-loss record). St. Louis is trying to reserve a spot in the playoffs. Finishing second in the NL Central guarantees them a spot and that’s where they are now after going 3-0 the L2 days. We’ll look past Jack Flaherty’s recent poor numbers here given the opponent. He’s 5-1 vs Pittsburgh with a 1.94 ERA and 47 strikeouts in his career. The Cards are 19-9 vs. Pittsburgh since the start of last season. Pirates starter Musgrove is winless in six tries and has a 5.74 ERA. The team has scored five or less runs in all six of Musgrove’s starts. Musgrove is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in eight starts against the Cardinals. Play on ST LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
09-19-20 | Rays -168 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB After sweeping a doubleheader on Thursday, the Rays won again Friday, this time 2-1. They shouldn’t have much of a problem continuing to win this weekend at Camden Yards. We like them on Saturday as they look to strengthen their grip on the AL East. Baltimore is heading in reverse right now. They’ve lost 10 of 12. Yesterday marked the 7th time that the Orioles were held to 1 run or less in that 2-10 stretch, which has effectively ended their season. A big reason why the Rays are winning this division is their 26-12 record against the other four teams. That includes five straight wins over Baltimore. Charlie Morton has yet to win for TB since returning from injury, but he’s only allowed six runs in 11 ⅔ innings. He holds a 3.38 ERA in six career starts vs. Baltimore. Orioles starter Lopez has a 2-2 team start record this year after a leading a shocking 14-1 win over Atlanta earlier in the week. But that was by far his best of the four starts and we see him regressing on Saturday. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
|||||||
09-18-20 | Braves -170 v. Mets | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA After taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies, the Mets are 1.5 games back of the last playoff spot in the NL. The task of catching up gets significantly harder this weekend with the Braves coming to town. First place Atlanta is one of the best teams in the Senior Circuit and will be starting Max Fried on Friday. Fried has gone 6-0 in his nine starts. The team is 8-1. Fried has a 1.98 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While the Braves just had a surprisingly disappointing series at Camden Yards, losing 2 of 3, their offense had been red hot prior to that and should have its way tonight with Mets starter Steven Matz. David Peterson was originally going to start here for the Mets, but an overnight change was made to Matz and we like it. Matz is 0-4 this year with a 9.00 ERA. The team has lost all five of his starts. In his last three turns, Matz has given up 19 runs in 11 ⅔ innings. The Mets bullpen has been working overtime of late, which means they may not be of much help either. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
09-16-20 | Twins v. White Sox -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the WHITE SOX This shaped up to be a very important series in the AL Central and so far the White Sox have stepped up to answer the challenge. They’ve beaten Minnesota each of the last two nights, 3-1 and 6-2. They now lead the Twins by three games. We like the division leaders to make it three in a row tonight. They’ve got arguably their top pitcher going in Lucas Giolito. The team is 7-3 so far when he starts including 5-0 the last 5 times. One of those was a no-hitter. Giolito hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of his last 5 starts and has a 1.03 WHIP for the year. The White Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now as they have won six straight. They are 22-5 their last 27 games and 14-1 L15 at home. They have arguably the best offense in the whole American League. Minnesota has a losing road record and it’s tough to like their chances with Odorizzi starting as he has a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP his previous three turns and this will be his first time starting since August 21st. A tough spot to return. Play on WHITE SOX AAA |
|||||||
09-16-20 | Braves -164 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta is still comfortably ahead in the NL East and thus looking like a pretty safe bet to make the postseason. But they suffered an embarrassing 14-1 defeat Monday at the hands of Baltimore. Fortunately, that looks like it was a total anomaly as last night the Braves got back on track with a 4-1 win at Camden Yards. The Orioles have scored 1 run or less in five of the last six games, so don’t go getting fooled by that 14 run effort two days ago. As for the Braves offense, it really got a “shot in the arm” when manager Brian Snitker reshuffled the batting order by stacking it at the top. But all eyes will be on the pitching mound tonight as Cole Hamels makes his 2020 season debut. The starting rotation has been Atlanta’s weakness the last two weeks due to a multitude of injuries. Hamels should do fine against a struggling Baltimore lineup. As for Orioles starter Keegan Akin, he’s facing a lineup that has scored 70 runs its last 10 games. The Braves are 7-2 this season as road favorites of -125 to -175 and 33-12 L45 in that role. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
09-16-20 | Mets -130 v. Phillies | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS This is a critically important game for the Mets season. While one of only seven National League teams to have scored more runs than they’ve allowed (they share the same +1 run diff as the Phillies), New York is six games below .500 and 2.5 gms out of the playoffs after losing 4-1 to the Phillies last night. But they’ve got the proverbial “ace in the hole” working Wednesday in Jacob deGrom, whose last two starts have produced a 14-1 win and 18-1 win. That’s a combined 32-2 score and the 14-1 win came against Philly! For the year, deGrom has a 1.67 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The Mets are 7-2 in his 9 starts. deGrom has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start. The Mets are 0-3 since deGrom last started a game and just 14-24 in all non-deGrom starts. But this is a real difference maker as deGrom is also 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 career starts for the Phillies. The home team’s lineup is severely depleted right now with Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce and J.T. Realmuto all M.I.A. The remainder of the Phillies lineup just isn’t going to get it done. The Mets had their chances last night at the plate (11 hits), but were 0 for 6 when runners were in scoring position. Look for that to turn around tonight and deGrom takes care of the rest. Play on NY METS AAA |
|||||||
09-15-20 | A's v. Rockies UNDER 12 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Under is not something you normally think about taking at Coors Field. But with the Rockies’ recent offensive struggles and the A’s being in a bit of bind, Under in the route we’re going in tonight’s series opener. Colorado has topped five runs only one time in its last six games. That was here at home, but so were the last two games which saw them score just five runs total. Tonight they are facing a red hot pitcher in Sean Manaea, who’s won his last four starts while posting a 1.61 ERA. Manaea has issued only one walk during that time and has allowed only six runs in 22 ⅓ (two runs were unearned). But the A’s are likely going to have to ride Manaea in this one after playing 10 games in 7 days including a doubleheader vs. Seattle yesterday. Injuries have also hit the everyday lineup hard as 3B Chapman’s season is over and OF Piscotty sprained his knee yesterday. The Under is 22-5-1 in the A’s last 28 road games with a total of 11.0 or higher. Rockies starter Senzatela actually has pretty good numbers here at home and should keep Oakland in check. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-15-20 | Nationals v. Rays -164 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Though they continue to hold serve in the AL East, Tampa Bay has lost four of six - all to last place teams. They could only manage a split of a four-game set with the sorry Red Sox over the weekend and before that lost both games to the Nationals. Tuesday sees them going for revenge against last year’s World Series champs. Obviously, the vibe in the Nation’s Capital right now is much different than it was at this time last year. The Nationals got off to a slow start and never recovered, meaning they won’t even get a chance to defend last year’s WS crown. Their weekend consisted of losing three of four to the Braves. Anibal Sanchez will be on the mound tonight and the Nats have lost his last four road starts. Despite a nice effort last week against the Rays, he still has a 6.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP overall. Tampa Bay goes the “opener” route on Tuesday with John Curtiss. While it’ll be just his 2nd time “opening,” Curtiss has made 13 total appearances this year including one scoreless inning last week vs. the Nationals, who are 1-6 their L7 games at Tropicana Field. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
|||||||
09-14-20 | Braves -168 v. Orioles | Top | 1-14 | Loss | -168 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta continues to pace the NL East, a division which they’ve led most of the way. They won yesterday, for the first time as a road underdog of +125 to +175 (0-7 previously), beating Max Scherzer and Washington 8-4. That was the Braves’ 4th win in 5 games, a stretch which began with a 29-9 victory over Miami. Tonight they’re in Baltimore to face an Orioles team that had a BAD weekend. The O’s got swept in New York, pretty much ending any hope that they could make a Cinderella run to the postseason. They scored a grand total of three runs in the four-game series, so Atlanta’s Touki Toussant has to like his chances in tonight’s start. Touissant should aim to hold Baltimore to three runs or fewer as the Orioles are 0-16 this year when that happens. Looking at Atlanta’s offense, the 4-1 stretch coincides with manager Brian Snitker deciding to “load up” the top of his batting order with Acuna Jr, Freeman & Ozuna in the top three spots. The Braves have scored 7 or more runs four times since that change and 53 runs total. Orioles starter Jorge Lopez has made only three starts in 2020 and none have been quality. He gave up five runs in the last one. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
09-13-20 | Braves v. Nationals -175 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON At this time last year, Washington was getting ready to embark on a run that would end with them winning the World Series. Barring a miracle, there will be no repeat of that run here in 2020. The Nationals currently find themselves in last place with a 17-27 record in the NL East. They have next to no shot of even making the playoffs, despite the fact eight teams will get in. Yesterday, they lost 2-1 to the team that occupies first place in the division, Atlanta. While this would normally be a mismatch in the Braves favor, today is no normal day as Max Scherzer goes for the Nationals. Scherzer is still having a solid year with a 6-3 TSR and 3.40 ERA. That’s why Washington is favored Sunday. Scherzer threw seven scoreless innings in his last start. Kyle Wright has an 8.05 and 2.211 WHIP in five starts for the Braves. He’s 0-4. Atlanta is also 0-7 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. When they get to the postseason, the Braves could be in trouble with their starting rotation decimated by injuries. They’re in trouble today as well. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
09-10-20 | Dodgers -200 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -200 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers beat the Dbax again yesterday, 6-4, the second time in a row they needed extra innings to do so. It was the seventh straight time the first place team in the NL West beat the last place team. It was also Arizona’s fifth loss in a row. Speaking of five losses in a row, Madison Bumgarner has an 0-5 team start record this year for the Dbax and has allowed a frightening nine home runs. The Dodgers, who are by far and away the best team this year, have won 8 of the last 10. Not that they need any more advantages, but Dustin May has a 6-2 TSR this season and a 2.88 ERA. He’s a much better pitcher than Bumgarner is right now. Also the Dodgers are obviously a MUCH better team than the Dbax, who have lost 18 of their past 20 games! This is a mismatch in every sense of the word. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Thursday games this season. Play on LA Dodgers AAA |
|||||||
09-09-20 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Colorado is having all sorts of trouble with San Diego this year. The last four times these NL West rivals have met, it has been the Padres coming out on top. The Rockies have managed a grand total of seven runs in those four losses, five of those coming last night. Meanwhile, SD has twice scored double digit runs on Rockies pitching, including 14 yesterday. The Padres continue to pace all of MLB with 253 runs scored in 44 games. They should finish above their 5.7 runs/game average again tonight as they face Senzatela, who is 6-2 Over in his eight starts for the Rockies. Senzatela does have two really good starts under his belt vs. the Padres, but the third time should be the charm for the best offense in baseball. San Diego starter Davies has mostly been lights out so far, but has given up seven runs in two starts vs. Colorado. Consider that in the nine head to head meetings between Colorado & San Diego this year, the winning team has scored at least six runs. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-09-20 | Brewers -142 v. Tigers | Top | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE The Brewers couldn’t put together enough runs to keep pace with the Tigers last night. In fact, they didn’t even score until putting three on the board in the top of the ninth! But despite losing 8-3, they actually wound up with more hits than Detroit (10-8) and it was more of a case of “cluster luck” than anything else. For today’s game, we’re backing Milwaukee as they turn to the reliable Corbin Burnes. In his previous two starts, Burnes has gone six innings and the only run allowed was unearned. He has 17 strikeouts in those 12 innings. With him on the mound, the Brewers beat Pittsburgh 9-1 and then Cleveland 7-1. In four of his five starts this season, Burnes has allowed 1 or 0 runs. Matthew Boyd gets the start here for Detroit. While he too has gone six innings in consecutive quality outings, he still allowed three home runs. Both starts saw Boyd give up two runs, which is obviously more than Brunes in the same stretch. Also, Boyd got off to a shaky start this year. None of his first six starts were considered “quality” and he’s still just 1-5 with a 6.64 ERA. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
09-08-20 | Mariners v. Giants -144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF RIght now, the Giants have better than 50% odds of making the postseason. With the Dodgers and Padres so far in front, the best SF can probably hope for is the 7 or 8 seed, but the National League has such little depth right now and that’s very attainable. Three straight wins have the Giants at .500 for the season (20-20). A big reason for that is an 8-2 record against the Dbax, whom they defeated yesterday by a score of 4-2. That series is now over and it’s time to welcome in a Seattle team that’s won six straight. Similar to how the Giants have feasted on the Dbax in 2020, the Mariners have done the same to the Rangers, the team they just swept. Seattle is 8-2 against Texas and 11-20 vs. everyone else. The Giants qualify as “everyone else” and shouldn’t have much difficulty beating up on a team that’s allowing almost six full runs/game on the road. A rookie, Ljay Newsome, makes just his second big league start for the Mariners today. He’s starting in place of the traded Taijuan Walker. Logan Webb goes for the Giants and he allowed no more than three runs in any of his first six starts. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
|||||||
09-08-20 | Rays v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 Stuck in last place, the Nationals are finding it hard to defend their World Series Championship. But they did beat the Rays yesterday 6-1. Getting the Nats +1.5 at this price, at home no less, is definitely something we would not have foreseen just a couple weeks ago. We’ll take advantage of it as they still can be a dangerous club as they proved last night. A lot of that was due to Max Scherzer, but you’ve got to think there’s “more where that came from.” Tuesday’s starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, however, the Rays have not scored more than five runs in 9 of their last 10 games. That leaves the door open with the run line as Washington has scored five or more runs in 6 of its last 10 contests. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough missed his last start due to injury, thus he’s a bit of a question mark coming into today’s game. The Rays’ bullpen does not have good numbers on the road. Play WASHINGTON +1.5. AAA |
|||||||
09-07-20 | Astros v. A's -145 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland looks to bounce back after losing two of three to San Diego over the weekend. Houston was even worse, dropping all four games to the Angels. The A’s are also going for revenge as they lost both games of a doubleheader against the ‘Stros back on August 29th. Those two games were in Houston though. When the Astros came to Oakland earlier in the year, the A’s won all three games. In that series, Montas (who starts here for Oakland) had a strong outing where he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits. In that same series (next day), Houston’s Javier (Monday starter) allowed five runs in three innings and gave up three home runs. The Astros just aren’t the same team they were the last few seasons. Some of it has to do with injuries, but they are also allowing 6.5 runs/game on the road. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
09-06-20 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Dodgers were held to just two runs on Saturday and lost to the Rockies. But you can’t keep this lineup down for long as LA has scored 230 runs in 41 games, which is second most in all of baseball. They exploded for 10 runs in the series opener and Rockies pitching has really struggled mightily this last week or so. Four different times in their last eight games, Colorado has allowed 10 runs or more. Who can forget the humiliating 23-5 loss they took on the 1st of the month, at the hands of the Giants? So the Dodgers are very much capable of sending this one Over on their own. Especially facing Castellani, who has a 7.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP his past three starts. In two of those three starts, the Rockies opponent has ended up scoring 13 runs. The Over is 5-1 when Dodgers’ starter Urias is pitching including 3-0 L3. There have been no fewer than nine total runs scored in all of his starts in 2020. It was a low-scoring game yesterday, but that won’t be the case here in this unusually late Sunday start. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -124 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on SEATTLE These two AL West also-rans have already met seven times on the field this season. The Mariners won the last four, all of which have been played here in Seattle. They swept a weekend series two weeks ago, then took last night’s opener by a score of 6-3. Sad to report Rangers fans that the misery is likely to continue tonight. Kyle Gibson is on the mound and Texas is just 1-6 when he starts including 0-3 the last three. In those last three starts, Gibson has a 9.37 ERA. He’s given up five or more runs every start, 17 total, and allowed six home runs. Seattle has won three in a row now, and given up only five runs in the process. Sheffield pitched once before against the Rangers and he held them to one run in six innings as the Mariners ultimately prevailed 10-1. The Rangers’ run differential is really bad (-65) as only the Red Sox are worse. Play on SEATTLE AAA |
|||||||
09-04-20 | White Sox -153 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The White Sox find themselves fighting in a tough three-way battle for first place in the American League Central. An 11-6 win here in Kansas City yesterday allowed them to keep pace with the Indians, whom they trail by just half a game. The White Sox have been one of baseball’s hotter teams the last three weeks, going 13-4 in their last 17 games. As for the Royals, with just 22 games remaining, they are reduced to the role of spoiler for the top three in the division. KC finds itself in last and has lost three in a row, all by 5 runs or more. We don’t see any indication they’ll get off the mat tonight as the starting pitching matchup certainly is not in their favor. For the White Sox, Dane Dunning has a 2.89 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his two starts. The team has won both with the last one coming against Kansas City. Dunning threw five shutout innings in that one and didn’t give up a hit. For the Royals, Brady Singer has a 5.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in seven starts and has really been roughed up of late. Singler has allowed four home runs his last three starts. Chicago is now 6-1 this year vs. KC after the win yesterday, 4-0 on the road. Play on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
09-03-20 | Rangers v. Astros -156 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Texas has been pretty bad this year. Only Boston has a worse run differential. The Rangers come in having been outscored by 58 runs this season. While they’ve been competitive here in Hoston, splitting a pair of one-run decisions, we just don’t like them in this Thursday afternoon matchup. Houston will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Greinke has pitched much better than his 3-4 team start record would seem to indicate as his ERA and WHIP are 2.68 and 0.94 respectively. He’s allowed three runs or less every start and hadn’t given up a homer until allowing two to Oakland last week. Texas will send out their ace, Lance Lynn, to oppose Greinke. He’s allowed a HR in five of his last six outings and was roughed up a bit by the Dodgers in the most recent one. The Rangers are just 4-12 so far in road games while being outscored by an average of 2.2 runs/game! Houston is +1.7 rpg over their opponents here at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
09-02-20 | Padres -165 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego has won 11 of its last 14 games due in no small part to an offense that leads the league with 211 runs scored. Three of the past five games have seen the Padres score 10 or more runs. They are coming off a 6-0 win at Colorado on Monday. Making the Angels task even more difficult tonight is the fact Lamet will be the SD starter. Lamet has allowed two runs or less in six of his seven starts thus far and never more than three. The Angels have never faced him before. Coming off two straight losses where they scored just one run (against Seattle!), this looks to be a really bad matchup for Los Angeles. Teheran is 0-2 with a 9.17 ERA in five games and had been demoted to the bullpen at one point. While San Diego has shined in interleague play thus far (8-2), the Angels have been quite the opposite (1-6). Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
09-02-20 | Indians -154 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Any time the Indians score a ton of runs, like they did last night, they are a virtual lock to win. Yesterday 10-1 win here in Kansas City improved the Tribe to an amazing 17-2 when scoring at least three runs. With them facing Junis today, we think they’ll easily get to three runs. Junis has allowed at least five runs four of the last five times he’s faced Cleveland. He also has a 1.58 WHIP in his three 2020 starts, none of which have lasted a full five innings. Triston McKenzie has looked great for Cleveland in his two starts, both of which the team has won. He’s allowed just three runs and five hits in 10 innings and has 13 strikeouts. Cleveland is allowing just 2.9 runs/game for the season, the fewest in all of baseball. The Royals have scored just five runs in their last three games and only three in this series. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
|||||||
09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers are in a lot better shape than the Dbax right now and that’s why they’re a big favorite to win Tuesday. Los Angeles currently holds the best record in baseball at 26-10 and they are WAY out in front of everyone else with a +90 run differential. Arizona is last in the division with a 14-21 record and has lost 9 of its last 10. With it being highly likely the Dodgers will come up to bat only eight times in this game, we’re predicting an Under. Earlier in the year, these teams played a four game series in Arizona. The Dodgers won three of the games and the Under hit three times as well. The Dbax scored just 10 runs in the four games. They’ve scored no more than two runs in 7 of the last 10 ballgames. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. On the bright side, Young has allowed three runs or less in every start. Urias held the Dbax to two runs and five hits in the earlier series. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
09-01-20 | Tigers v. Brewers -171 | Top | 12-1 | Loss | -171 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE The Tigers have won five in a row, including a three-game sweep of the Twins over the weekend, and now are 16-16 on the year. Being at .500, even through only 32 games, is a massive achievement for a club that won only 47 of its 161 games played last season while it was outscored by 333 runs. But look for the “good times” to come to an end on Tuesday when the Tigers visit Milwaukee. The five straight wins have all taken place at home. The Brewers, who were home over the weekend and won two of three vs. Pittsburgh, are a team to be trusted in this price range at Miller Park. They’ve won all three times this year as a home favorite of -175 or higher. Michael Fulmer starts for Detroit and that’s a problem. While the team is 3-2 in Fulmer’s five starts thus far, the pitcher has an 8.79 ERA. He’s not exactly putting his team in position to win with zero of his starts lasting longer than three innings. The Tigers have lost 36 of their last 51 series openers. Lindblom should pitch well enough for the home team to win this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
08-31-20 | Indians v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Indians have done a remarkable job at run prevention this year, leading to the Under cashing in 67% of their games (22-11-1). Not far behind in the Under department is division foe Kansas City (20-12-2 Under) and these teams open up a three-game series on Monday. Before you go thinking Under, note Cleveland did just give up seven runs yesterday in a loss to St. Louis. (The Cardinals were our 10* Game of the Month, by the way). The Tribe had also scored 14 runs of their own in a win Friday. So two of the three games in the last series did go Over. Most Royals totals are higher than this one, which explains their YTD Under mark. Don’t let a pitching matchup of Bieber vs. Keller scare you off either. Bieber’s ERA vs. KC is 4.33. Keller’s last start saw him allow 10 baserunners in only 4 innings as the Royals lost 9-3. Before losing 5-2 to the White Sox on Sunday, the Royals had scored five or more runs in four straight games. It doesn’t take much to go Over a total like this and we think the Indians and Royals will “get there.” Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
08-30-20 | Indians v. Cardinals +113 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 113 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STL After getting rocked 14-2 on Friday, the Cardinals played a much closer game against the Indians on Saturday. But as we know, “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” The Redbirds still lost 2-1, a game that went extra innings, and now face the possibility of being swept in their own ballpark. We think they’ll rise to the occasion Sunday behind Adam Wainwright, whose four starts have gone very well. He has a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. This is a veteran pitcher that knows how to step up in this spot. Solving Cleveland’s pitching is something few teams have been able to do in 2020, but it shouldn’t take many runs for the Cardinals to win this game. The Indians entered the series with the 4th lowest team batting average and they are hitting just .208 on the road. With Civale starting, they are just 3-3 this season and have scored two runs or less in all three losses. The Cardinals are 42-17 L59 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
|||||||
08-30-20 | Twins -200 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -200 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MINNESOTA Not only have the Tigers won six of their last eight, they surprisingly swept the Twins in a doubleheader Saturday, winning by scores of 8-2 and 4-2. Those losses dropped the Twins, now losers of four straight, out of first place in the Central Division. However, we’ll look for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday as they send Maeda to the hill. Maeda has a 5-1 team start record, 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He’s allowed no more than three runs in any of the six starts. In the past, the Twins have been very dominant as a larger road favorite, owning a 14-4 mark the L18 times they’ve been priced at -175 or higher. Detroit is going with Mize on the mound today. He has given up more runs in his two starts then Maeda has given up in his last five. It’s a huge pitching mismatch on Sunday and the Twins offense can remain dormant for only so long. They are 26-14 L40 games vs. the Tigers. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
08-29-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona broke its 8-game losing streak last night and did so in convincing fashion, beating the Giants 7-4. They were up 7-1 heading into the ninth in what was also a revenge spot as the Dbax had been swept in San Francisco last weekend. We told you to take the Dbax Friday and the same holds true tonight. While they may not have the same distinct scheduling advantage they held going into yesterday’s game (had Thursday off while SF played a doubleheader) nor is the starting pitching matchup as lopsided, the Dbax remain the play. The Giants had scored only one run in 22 innings before putting a rather meaningless three on the board in the ninth last night. Cahill’s numbers may look good, but he’s walked a lot of batters and hasn’t gone longer than 5 ⅓. He beat Weaver and Arizona in his last start, 6-1, but Weaver actually pitched every bit as well. That was a failure of the Dbax bullpen. We don’t think the Giants are very good. Their recent seven-game win streak was a mirage and Arizona is the better team. Trust us on that. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
|||||||
08-28-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona has lost eight in a row. The last three losses were all to the Colorado Rockies, at home and by one run margins. San Francisco had won a season-high seven straight, but was then shut out in both games of a doubleheader yesterday (against the Dodgers). Like every other game in this report, this play is born out of revenge as last weekend saw the Dbax lose three games in SF. They scored only four runs the entire series. But the fact they were off yesterday (protest) while the Giants played twice gives the home team a big advantage in this one as they look to atone for last weekend’s embarrassing performance. Another advantage is having Zac Gallen on the mound for tonight’s opener. Gallen has a 7-1 TSR at Chase Field in his career with a 2.27 ERA. He has 56 strikeouts in those eight starts and has held opposing hitters to an .187 average. Giants starter Anderson has started four times on the road this year and has a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Play on ARIZONA AAA |
|||||||
08-28-20 | Pirates v. Brewers -185 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE Revenge is going to be the “commonality” in this 3-game report Friday and we start with a Milwaukee team that suffered an embarrassing three-game sweep last weekend in Pittsburgh. Sweeping that series accounts for 33% of the Pirates’ wins this season! They are just 6-19 otherwise and that’s even including the fact they’ll come into this series on a two-game win streak. Both of those wins came Thursday in a doubleheader sweep of St. Louis. Milwaukee also played in a doubleheader yesterday, although they lost both games to Cincinnati. Despite how the last seven days have gone, the Brewers still remain decided favorites for this rematch from last weekend as they should. We just can’t see them losing as a big favorite to Pittsburgh a fourth straight time. Though he did pitch well in last weekend’s series, Holland still has an 8.04 ERA and 1.72 WHIP his last three starts for the Bucs. Milwaukee’s Burnes has started three times, all on the road, and has a 3.29 ERA. Pittsburgh is 0-6 so far this season as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
08-28-20 | Mets v. Yankees -141 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -141 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES This play is on the first game of today’s doubleheader, which was necessitated by last weekend’s cancellations due to positive COVID tests within the Mets clubhouses. Even though both of today’s games are being played at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees will be the designated home team for only this first game. Both games are also only seven innings due to this year’s rules on doubleheaders. That the Yankees come up to bat last in this first game has little to do with why we are taking them. It’s more so that they enter as the more desperate team as they are on a five-game losing streak. Yesterday was always going to be an off-day for them. Meanwhile, the Mets (along with the Marlins) walked off the field for their scheduled game Thursday in protest. The Yankees are 10-4 at home so far and the fact they are coming off a “normal” off day gives them the advantage. They are averaging 6.3 runs/game in this ballpark, so whether they come up to bat first or last is really immaterial. Also important is that starter Montgomery’s team start record at home is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Mets are starting Wacha, whose numbers are not good (6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP), and the team is 0-3 so far as a road dog of +125 to +175. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
|||||||
08-25-20 | Mariners v. Padres -169 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -169 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on SAN DIEGO This is a complete mismatch. San Diego is 18-12 at the halfway mark and the hottest team in baseball, having won seven in a row. They just swept the Astros. While Seattle also swept its last series, that was against a bad Texas team. The Mariners were only 8-19 on the year before that sweep. Still with one of the worst run differentials in either league (-38), Seattle just isn’t capable of beating a quality opponent like the Padres, who are already 7-0 against the American League this season. The Mariners had one other three-game win streak this year. Not only did they lose their next time out, they proceeded to lose 14 of the next 17 games. Chris Paddack toes the rubber here for San Diego and he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home where the team has gone 10-4. Marco Gonzalez has pitched well for Seattle but Tuesday’s starter is going to have to deal with the Padres offense that has averaged 8.0 runs/game during its win streak. It seems unlikely Gonzalez will pitch well tonight. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
08-24-20 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It wasn’t a good weekend for either of these two National League Central clubs. The Reds lost three of four in St. Louis while Milwaukee got swept in Pittsburgh. The Reds have managed to score just 10 runs in the last five games and were shut out twice. The Brewers have scored all of 12 runs in their last four games. Expect this to be a low-scoring opener with Bauer pitching for Cincy. He has a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four starts, placing him among the very best starters in the league. Bauer has allowed just two runs so far and has worked 26 ⅓ innings. On August 7th, he held Milwaukee to one run and three hits in six innings and had 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts in 2020. With two struggling lineups and Bauer starting this should be quite the easy Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
08-23-20 | Brewers -160 v. Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -160 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has yet to find success in this series, which is somewhat shocking when you consider who the opponent is. Pittsburgh came in with the worst record in MLB, but has now won two straight for the 1st time all season. Still, even with two convincing victories (7-2 and 12-5), the Pirates have the National League’s worst run differential at -32. This afternoon they’ll send Brubaker to the hill and he’s yet to go longer than three innings in two starts. He allowed three runs in both so it’s a 9.00 ERA for him. Milwaukee’s Burnes has a 2.16 ERA in his two starts, both of which have seen him allow just 1 ER. Yesterday was the most runs scored by the Pirates in a win all season. Burnes is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA in 12 career appearances vs Pittsburgh, all in relief. We see Pittsburgh resorting back to their previous ways and Milwaukee avoiding the sweep. Christan Yelich has to break out of his 1 for 22 slump, right? Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Diamondbacks -154 v. Giants | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -154 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Tigers v. Indians -157 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland fell prey to one big inning last night as Detroit scored 7 runs in the top of the 4th. Really, it was one pitch that did them in, that being a grand slam hit by Tigers rookie Isaac Paredas. That erased what had been a 5-0 Indians lead and the 10-5 final score marked the first time the Tribe has lost this year when scoring at least three runs. They were 13-0 when scoring 3 or more previous to that! The loss also ended their 20-game win streak over the Tigers. Expect Cleveland to bounce back though as Saturday finds them sending out highly touted prospect Triston McKenzie, who will be making his big league debut. McKenzie is the latest addition to a staff that is allowing a MLB-low 2.9 runs/game and a .210 opponents’ batting average. No matter how he performs, it’s likely to be better than Detroit’s Matthew Boyd, who has an unsightly 9.64 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in five starts. Boyd has allowed seven home runs his past three starts and has yet to go more than five innings in any start this season. Classic bounce back for Cleveland. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
|||||||
08-22-20 | Brewers -161 v. Pirates | Top | 5-12 | Loss | -161 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE It was all set up to be a great weekend for Milwaukee as they were facing the team with the worst record in the league. But they lost 7-2 to the Pirates Friday night, a result which should not sit well with the Brewers. Fortunately for them, they are 8-4 off a loss this year while Pittsburgh is 0-4 off a win. The Pirates have been hammered in those four games too; giving up a total of 34 runs to the opposition. Be prepared to see them give up a lot more this evening as Derek Holland and his 8.26 ERA takes the mound. Holland gave up five home runs in his last start and the Pirates lost 11-5 to Detroit. Holland did face off with the Brewers in his first start of 2020 and while that ended up being an 8-6 Pittsburgh win (as +170 underdogs), he did not factor into the decision. Milwaukee will counter with Lindblom, who started opposite Holland in that 8-6 game last month. But since then, Lindblom has struck out a career-high eight batters in back to back starts. The Brewers are 8-2 their L10 games at PNC Park. A Pirates team that has scored just 85 runs in 22 games can’t be trusted to win two in a row. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
08-21-20 | Tigers v. Indians -170 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -170 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND The Indians have taken advantage of a soft schedule (Detroit and Pittsburgh) to win six in a row. They’ve swept the last two series and are now an amazing 12-0 this season in games where they score at least three runs. Yesterday, they needed only two runs in a shutout win over Pittsburgh. That was their MLB-leading 5th shutout of 2020 and no team has allowed fewer runs this season (just 66 in 25 games). Not only did Cleveland sweep last weekend’s series with Detroit, they’ve beaten them 20 consecutive times! So facing them a second straight weekend has to have them overjoyed, especially seeing as Detroit has now lost nine in a row overall and was shut out yesterday in Chicago. The Indians had their best offensive series of the year against the Tigers last weekend by scoring 21 runs in three games. Tigers starter Fulmer has a 7.55 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in his three starts and lasted less than three innings when he faced Cleveland last week. The Tribe goes with Adam Plutko, who hasn’t been their strongest starter, but he’s never lost to Detroit (4-0) in nine appearances, six of them starts. The most recent was against Fulmer last week. All signs point to a Cleveland blowout tonight. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
|||||||
08-21-20 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH -1.5 Despite enduring a COVID-19 outbreak just as the season was getting underway, Miami ended up winning 7 of its first 8 games. They’ve since gone 2-8 with yesterday’s game against the Mets being postponed due to two positive (COVID) tests in the Mets organization. Thus it marked the first time in six days where the Marlins DIDN’T lose (lost 5 in a row overall). Today they’re in Washington D.C. and the losing should continue as they face a Nationals team that has their number. The Nats went 15-4 vs. Miami last year and were 13-4 against them the season before that. Washington also had Thursday off, but unlike the Marlins, it was a scheduled off-day. They’ve actually been off for two days as Wednesday’s game vs. Atlanta was rained out. We look for the Nationals to come out strong and take this series opener rather easily. Pat Corbin gets the start and he was 3-0 vs. Miami last season with a 1.55 ERA in four starts. He limited them to a .165 batting average while striking out 29 and walking just five. As of now, Miami is scheduled to go with Eliser Hernandez. But they could change to rookie Daniel Castano. Either way, the Nationals win. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
08-20-20 | Diamondbacks v. A's -143 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND After losing both games in Arizona, the A’s bounced back last night with a 4-1 win here in Oakland. The A’s had won four in a row coming into this series with the Diamondbacks and have really played as well as anybody in 2020. At 17-8, they’ve got the best record in the American League. While Arizona saw a six-game win streak end yesterday, the truth of the matter is they hadn’t been playing all that well before that streak. Three of those six wins were by one run. Take away that six game win streak and Arizona is only 7-12 this year while getting outscored by 29 runs. Manaea is winless in five starts for Oakland but should get that elusive first victory tonight. Ten of the A’s 17 wins this year have come at home. Arizona has just five road wins and is 1-5 vs. lefty starting pitchers. Young is starting for only the second time and the only reason he’s in the rotation is because Madison Bumgarner is injured. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
08-20-20 | Rangers v. Padres -172 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO Texas has been no match for San Diego in this series with the Padres taking all three games so far. The first two were playing in Arlington and made headlines when Fernando Tatis swung on a 3-0 count and hit a grand slam (upset people for some reason). It took an extra inning last night but the Padres still ended up winning 6-3 and now they get to go for the sweep with what looks to be a huge pitching edge. Lamet has a 1.59 ERA/0.81 WHIP through five starts and has looked great. He’s allowed only six runs in 28+ innings, which means trouble for a Texas club that comes in hitting just .214 on the year. The Rangers are giving up lots of runs too, 6.0/game on the road, thanks largely to a bullpen whose ERA is now 8.26 away from home. Starter Kyle Gibson has a 1.48 WHIP and the team is 1-3 in his four starts. With last night’s game decided on a walkoff grand slam, we can’t imagine Texas has much left in the tank. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
08-19-20 | Astros -160 v. Rockies | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston was able to squeak out another one on Tuesday, this time defeating the Colorado Rockies 2-1 in 11 innings. That was the Astros sixth straight win and they’ve allowed two runs or less in every game! In fact, they’ve allowed just seven runs total during the win streak. The last four wins have all been by one run margins, meaning they’re not scoring very many runs either, but that should change Wednesday as they pay a visit to Coors Field. Having beaten the Rockies each of the last two days (in Houston), the ‘Stros have plenty of confidence coming into this one. They should, plus there’s Framber Valdez starting. Valdez has a 2.08 ERA and is coming off two straight quality starts. The Rockies have lost five of six and their bullpen has been horrendous at home, posting a 7.23 ERA as well as a 1.70 WHIP. Their starting pitcher for this game will be Castellani, who’s made two decent starts thus far but against weaker lineups than the one he’ll see tonight. The Astros are 10-3 their last 13 games where the total is set at 11.0 or higher. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
08-19-20 | Indians -162 v. Pirates | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND Cleveland needed an extra inning to outlast Pittsburgh last night, 6-3. They led 3-1 going into the bottom of the fifth, which is when the Pirates were able to tie the game up. But a three-run HR from Carlos Santana effectively ended things in the top of the 10th as the Indians moved to a perfect 11-0 this season when scoring three runs or more. Pittsburgh has only four wins all year as they’ve got the worst record in baseball. Furthermore, they’ve allowed almost double the number of runs Cleveland has. No club has given up fewer runs than the Indians’ 65 this year and the story shouldn’t change Wednesday when they send Civale to the hill. He’s gone at least six innings in all four of his starts. Don’t be fooled by the 0.00 ERA from Pittsburgh’s starter Brault. He’s pitched a total of only seven innings all year. The Indians have gone 6-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and are clearly rolling now with 9 wins in the last 12 games overall. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
|||||||
08-18-20 | Brewers v. Twins -163 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA Minnesota is another American League team off to a good start as they are 15-8 and tied with the Yankees for the best run differential at +38. They come into this series having won each of the last three days, same as Milwaukee, but the Brewers are just 10-10 on the year. While Milwaukee should feel good about itself having just beaten the Cubs three straight times, every win was by one run. They’ve still been outscored by 12 runs this season. Don’t see them solving Kenta Maeda who is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in four starts. Maeda has gone at least six inning in each of his last three starts and allowed a combined five runs. Burnes made it to only the fourth inning in his only start for Milwaukee (went 3 ⅓). Maeda has a 2.94 ERA in six career starts vs. the Brewers. The Twins have scored 32 more runs than the Brewers. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
08-18-20 | A's -147 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland is doing quite well for itself as they’ve started 16-7. They’d won five in a row before yesterday’s 4-3 loss to Arizona, which was the Diamondbacks’ fifth straight win themselves. But the difference is Arizona is only 12-11 and has a -15 run differential on the season. The starting pitching matchup for Tuesday heavily tilts in the A’s favor as Montas has a 3-1 TSR with a 1.57 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while Weaver has a 11.86 ERA, 2.123 WHIP and is winless in his four starts. Going back to last season, Oakland is 11-2 in Montas’ last 13 starts. Weaver has yet to go more than four innings in any start in 2020 and has already allowed 7 home runs. Note Oakland has scored 38 runs its previous four games before losing in the 9th last night. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
08-18-20 | Giants v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 102 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Angels definitely can’t be trusted to get the job done, even in this price range, but we can expect a high-scoring game against the Giants Tuesday afternoon. LA’s last five games have all gone Over with 11 or more total runs scored every time. Thus far, when they’re at home, Angels’ games have averaged 12.3 runs/game. The Giants come in having allowed 7.7 runs/game over their last seven contests, a stretch in which the Over is 6-1. They are allowing 6.3 runs/game for the season. While the Angels do have their best pitcher - Dylan Bundy - going tonight, they and the Giants both have terrible bullpens. In just the last five games, the Giants’ pen has gone 0-4 with a 12.19 ERA and has given up 29 runs in 20 ⅓ innings. Angels’ relievers aren’t much better with a near identical home ERA/WHIP to what the Giants have on the road. Trevor Cahill starts today for SF. This is his 1st start of the year after a fingernail issue. Expect him to struggle. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
08-17-20 | Rockies v. Astros -150 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. For the Astros, Bielak has a 1.80 ERA in two starts, both of which came versus NL West teams! Traditionally, the Rockies are not a very good road team. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
|||||||
08-17-20 | Rockies v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston has started to turn things around, thanks to a visit from Seattle over the weekend. They outscored the Mariners 16-4 in the series, a margin that’s a little skewed due to one of the wins (first game) being 11-1. Still that sweep had to feel good as the Astros are back in second place in the AL West. They get a visit from the Colorado Rockies Monday and while run suppression won’t be as easy here as it was against the Mariners, we still look for Houston to prevail. These teams played four times in 2019 with Houston winning all four. The Rockies have been a bit of a surprise so far and we did have them yesterday as they put up 10 runs in a win over Texas. It’ll probably take a lot of runs for the Astros to prevail tonight, but we think they’re up to the task. Rockies starter Kyle Freeland does have a 4-0 team start record, but he allowed a pair of home runs in his last one. Both teams are averaging more than 5.0 runs per game. Play on OVER AAA |
|||||||
08-16-20 | Dodgers -175 v. Angels | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on LAD The Dodgers are clearly too much for the Angels and can finish off the sweep this afternoon. Last night’s game went 10 innings after the Dodgers tied it late. This one should go smoother behind Dustin May, who has twice gone off as a favorite of -200 or more, so this is a good price on him. The Dodgers, as was to be expected, have been very dominant this season. They’ve scored 55 more runs than they have allowed. No other team has a run diff of better than +33 and only two (Yankees, Twins) are better than +20. While the Dodgers have won four in a row, the Angels have lost three straight. Teheran is not well-suited to start in this spot, not just because of the 13.49 ERA and 2.36 WHIP, but also due to the fact he has never beaten the Dodgers in eight tries and has a 5.35 ERA against them. This is a very one-sided matchup as the Dodgers are already 7-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
08-16-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -130 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO So Texas pitching has had virtually zero problems adjusting to Coors Field this weekend. Friday saw starter Lance Lynn throw a complete game and it was just the eighth time in the history of this park that a team was held to two hits or fewer over a full nine-inning game. The Rockies did a bit better at the plate on Saturday, but still ended up wasting an early 2-0 lead and lost 6-4. The Rangers have won a season-high four straight, which is a bit perplexing to us as this has not been a good road team the last few seasons and they’re still -2.0 rpg outside of Arlington this year. The Rockies are 12-8 and have outscored teams by 19 runs this year while Texas is 10-9 but has been outscored by 11 runs. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep Sunday behind Jon Gray. Gray was hit hard his last time out, but should bounce back here as the Rangers are only hitting .217 for the year. He is 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA (39.0 IP, 8 ER) in six career interleague starts at Coors Field, limiting American League batters to a .159 average. Allard has looked pretty good for Texas but has never pitched at Coors before. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
08-15-20 | Nationals -180 v. Orioles | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -180 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON The Nationals wrapped up a busy Friday with a 15-3 win over the Orioles. Just prior to that, these two teams had to complete a suspended game from Sunday. Baltimore won that 6-2 as they were ahead 5-2 in the sixth when play was halted. Despite winning the second game in such convincing fashion, it was a pretty “bad” day for Washington. They lost Stephen Strasburg after just 16 pitches due to a nerve issue. Second baseman Starlin Castro broke his wrist. Despite these injuries, we still like the Nats to roll again here on Sunday. Baltimore has definitely overachieved to this point. No one expected this 11-8 start which included six straight wins before the 15-3 loss yesterday. This has been the worst team in baseball the last two years. Nationals starter Pat Corbin has been sharp in three outings so are (2.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) while the Orioles send Wojciechowski out and he’s got a 5.40 ERA. Washington now averages over 7.0 runs/game on the road. Baltimore is averaging less than four per game at home. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
08-14-20 | Pirates v. Reds -193 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CINCINNATI Going by units lost, the Reds (-7.1) have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball so far. With playoff expansion (8 teams per league) this season, many thought this would be Cincinnati’s year to return to the postseason. Right now they’re just 8-11 and just took an embarrassing 9-6 loss to Pittsburgh at home yesterday. They did try and make a game of it late, scoring runs in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings, but falling into an early 9-0 hole was simply too much to overcome. Fortunately for the cause, Pittsburgh is not a team you’d expect to win two in a row. In fact, that hasn’t happened yet as the Pirates record is a league-worst 4-13. Sonny Gray has three of the Reds eight wins this year and he’ll be on the mound Friday, looking to improve his already stellar numbers (2.25 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Over his first three starts, Gray allowed just 2 runs in 28 innings. Chad Kuhl will start for the Pirates. He’s worked as a reliever as well. He was okay in the first start, giving up just one run. But he made it through only 4 innings and the Pirates lost that game 17-13. That was also the last time the Bucs were off a win. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
|||||||
08-13-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -136 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers need more innings like the 8th of last night’s game. They scored four times in that frame, putting the finishing touches on a much-needed 6-0 win over the divisional rival Padres. Los Angeles had lost to San Diego each of the previous two days, scoring just three runs total in the process. But despite this mini “slump,” Dodger Blue continues to rank among the NL leaders in runs scored this year. So does San Diego, which wasn’t as expected. The Padres couldn’t get much of anything going at the plate last night, however. Here they’ll go up against Julio Urias. Urias was going to start Wednesday, but got pushed back to today, giving him one extra day of rest. In three starts, Urias has given up only four runs. He’s also yet to allow a home run. Chris Paddack of San Diego has allowed four HR’s in his last three starts, which is a concern facing a Dodgers lineup that had homered in every game but two coming into the series. The Padres are giving up nearly 5.5 runs/game on the road. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
08-13-20 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Nationals and Mets face off early Thursday afternoon in what will be the finale of a four-game series. Washington won the first two games, 16-4 and 2-1, but yesterday was New York’s turn to put some runs on the board as they took home an 11-6 ‘W.’ There were seven total runs scored in the first inning of last night’s game, three by the visitors and four more by the home team. We look for more of a “pitcher’s duel” today. The Nats numbers against lefties are BAD as they are hitting just .207 in games where they face a starter that’s a southpaw and averaging 1.9 runs/game. Here they are up against David Peterson whose three starts have been respectable to the tune of a 3.78 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. At the same time, the Mets offensive numbers are bad. They came into yesterday scoring only 3.2 runs/game at home. Austin Voth has two solid efforts under his belt for Washington as he’s allowed only three runs in 10 innings. Both starts stayed Under the total. In six of their last 11 games, the Nationals have scored three runs or fewer. Same for the Mets. Play on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
08-12-20 | Orioles v. Phillies -164 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies keep finding ways to lose and last night’s 10-9 setback at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles may have taken the cake. Despite blowing an early 3-0 lead, Philly still found itself up a run heading into the ninth after a 3-run rally of their own in the bottom of the 8th. But then they gave up three runs in the top of the ninth. Still, they were able to tie it up by scoring two in the bottom half of the inning. But it just wasn’t meant to be as they gave up two in the 10th, then could only come up with one of their own. As frustrating a defeat as that defeat was, we think Philly overcomes it here as they send Eflin to the mound. Eflin didn’t allow any runs in his first start, which ended up being a 5-4 win against the Yankees. Baltimore goes with LeBlanc, whose three starts haven’t gone very well (6.91 ERA), especially the last one where he allowed six runs in 3 ⅓. The Orioles, projected to be the worst team in baseball by many, now have a winning record at 8-7. That isn’t going to last. They had a previous three-game win streak and promptly got shut out the next two games. Play on PHILADELPHIA |
|||||||
08-12-20 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -157 | Top | 14-11 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Yesterday marked the first MLB game played in Buffalo in the last 105 years and things ended up turning out well for the “home team.” Toronto, playing its “home games” here due to COVID-19 concerns, was able to take the game in extra innings by a count of 5-4. It was the Marlins’ third straight loss following a 7-1 start. Obviously, Miami was going to start trending in a negative direction sooner rather than later and we think it will continue here on Wednesday as they wrap up this first series in upstate NY. Blue Jays starter Pearson has pitched better than his 0-2 TSR as he’s got a 2.70 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. Both starts saw him last five innings and allow just two hits. The only three runs he’s allowed all came in the last outing due to some control issues. But Pearson also has 10 strikeouts in as many innings. Miami, whose roster is still thin because of COVID-19, sends Jordan Yamamoto to the mound. He allowed four runs in his only 2020 start. Again, the Marlins were due to start regressing and unfortunately for them that’s not going to end after three straight losses. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
08-11-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -172 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -172 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Padres switched starters on the Dodgers yesterday and it paid off as Luis Perdomo and five relievers held LA to just four hits in a 2-1 victory. It was one of the Dodgers’ weaker efforts at the plate so far this season. They went 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position and failed to homer for the first time in 11 games. But it’s important to know they are averaging 5.0 runs/game, making them one of baseball’s highest scoring teams. Tonight they get to face Garrett Richards, who we were set to play against yesterday (before the pitching change) as he’s allowed four runs in consecutive starts. Los Angeles has won all three previous starts of Ross Stripling, who will go again tonight. The most recent was against Richards and the Padres last week. The Dodgers have a much better bullpen than the Padres. They are also 4-1 off a loss this season. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
|||||||
08-11-20 | Nationals -139 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON Washington jumped all over the hapless Mets on Monday and never looked back, eventually winning by a score of 16-4. After taking that kind of beating, it’s tough to like the Mets chances tonight as they have to face Max Scherzer. Though a sore hamstring caused him to exit his last start after just one inning, Scherzer looked really good in the start before that one. He threw 7 ⅓ scoreless innings against Toronto on 7/29. He had 21 strikeouts in his first two starts. The Mets are a disaster. Their bullpen is in shambles and you shouldn’t trust today’s starter Rick Porcello, who allowed 13 runs his first two starts. Now Porcello did bounce back with a strong effort against Scherzer and the Nationals last week. But we’ll go with the revenge angle and the better team Tuesday. Again, Scherzer lasted just one inning in that first go-around and it’s not because he was ineffective. The Mets have a bottom five run differential in all of baseball. Play on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
08-11-20 | Marlins v. Blue Jays -165 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO For the first time in 135 years, the city of Buffalo will host a regular season Major League Baseball game. COVID-19 means the Blue Jays can’t play in Toronto so they chose (were forced to?) their Triple-A affiliate’s stadium to be the new home. The Jays are 5-8 coming into this “home opener” and will no doubt be happy to be here, even if it isn’t “really” home. They’ll host a team that’s had to endure its own coronavirus-related drama, Miami, who has managed to start 7-3. But the Marlins have lost two in a row as reality seems to be setting in for a team that wasn’t expected to be very competitive in 2020. Remember that four of the Marlins wins were against a terrible Baltimore team and that was after a long, quarantine-induced layoff. Their record is phony and the roster is thin. Elieser Hernandez didn’t allow a run when he faced Baltimore last week, but also only went 4 1/3 innings. We like what we saw out of Hyun-Jin Ryu in his last start for Toronto as he tossed five shutout innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts. Play on TORONTO AAA |
|||||||
08-10-20 | Padres v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -165 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
NO ACTION |
|||||||
08-10-20 | Mariners v. Rangers -150 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TEXAS Over the weekend we saw the Rangers sweep the Angels while the Mariners were very nearly swept (at home) by the Rockies. These two AL West sides start a series on Monday and it certainly appears that the home team has a distinct advantage. Over the first eight games in their new stadium, the Rangers have allowed just 22 runs to be scored. Seattle has given up 51 runs in eight road games, more than double what Texas has allowed at home. The pitching matchup for tonight seems likely to follow the script as Gibson has a 2.45 ERA for Texas while Dunn has a 6.43 ERA for Seattle. Making matters even worse for the road team is the fact the bullpen has a 6.03 road ERA. After playing the last 10 games all at home (and going just 3-7), hitting the road may very well be a tough transition for these young Mariners, who were held to three runs or fewer in half the games on the just completed homestand. Going back to last season, Seattle has lost seven of its last eight series openers. They are just 4-10 the last 14 games at Texas. Play on TEXAS AAA |
|||||||
08-09-20 | Rockies -160 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado improved to a MLB-best 11-3 yesterday with a 5-0 win over Seattle. It was the Rockies second straight win here in the Pacific Northwest as they won Friday’s game by a count of 8-4. Given how each team’s season has started, it’s definitely a little surprising to still be able to get the Rockies at a somewhat affordable price. The Mariners are one of the worst teams in baseball so far at 5-11. No one has been outscored by more runs as they are -40 in that department. Tilting things even further in Colorado’s direction for Sunday is that German Marquez will be starting the game. Marquez has a 1.89 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. He’s allowed just four runs in 19 innings and has a win over Oakland. The Rockies are allowing just over two runs per game on the road. Seattle is averaging less than three runs per game at home. Justus Sheffield’s first two starts for the M’s haven’t gone well with the team losing by a combined 18 runs to Oakland and the Angels. The Mariners bullpen has been especially horrible. The Rockies should finish off the sweep in easy fashion today. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
08-08-20 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -151 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -151 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO The Padres made a nice “recovery” Friday night by shutting out Arizona 3-0. It was a good spot for them after an off-day on Thursday. They’d previously lost four of five including two straight to the Dodgers, the last one coming in heartbreaking fashion as a runner was thrown out at the plate to end the game. The Padres are now 4-1 this year vs. the struggling Diamondbacks, who have the worst run differential so far in the National League. Arizona had picked up a couple surprise wins over Houston earlier in the week, but given their lack of hitting (2.8 runs/game on the road), it was only a matter of time before they cooled back down. Tonight they’ve got to face Chris Paddack, who has allowed just five runs across three starts so far. The first of those was six shutout innings vs. Arizona. The Diamondbacks go with Merrill Kelly, who took a no-hitter into the 7th inning against Texas on 7/28. But then he gave up two home runs to the Dodgers in a 3-0 loss last time out. The Padres homered three times (also solo shots) yesterday, so look out for the long ball. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
08-07-20 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA -1.5 Shockingly, the Dodgers could only manage a four-game split with the Giants when they met two weeks ago in LA. The Dodgers took the first two games 9-1 and 8-1 and everything seemed normal. But then they lost the next two two, 5-4 and 3-1, both losses coming as huge money line favorites. Everything points in the Dodgers direction for Friday, the first time they’ll have faced their rivals since the four-game split. The Dodgers are 7-2 since that series and own the best run differential in baseball at +33. The Giants have gone just 4-6 their L10 and were beaten yesterday in Colorado 6-4. The Dodgers had Thursday off after a thrilling win over the Padres the night prior. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks very one-sided with Urias having a 2.45 ERA for LA and Samardzija having a 9.31 ERA for SF. Playing the run line here, that means the Dodgers have to win by two runs. Shouldn’t be a problem. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
|||||||
08-07-20 | Angels -153 v. Rangers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -153 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the ANGELS So the Angels were a nice winner for us yesterday. They beat Seattle 6-1, making it a winning series (took two of three games), and are now 5-8 on a season that’s more than 20% complete (crazy!). With the top two spots in the division likely to go to Houston and Oakland, it really is important for the Angels to beat up on the Mariners and Rangers this year. What they just accomplished in Seattle was a nice start and now they get their chance against Texas, who is in a bad way at 3-8. The Rangers just got swept in Oakland and have lost five of their last six games. Friday starter Jordan Lyles was pretty bad in his first outing of 2020, giving up four runs in four innings with five walks. We’ll go with Griffin Canning in this one. The Angels starter had six strong innings vs. Houston last weekend where he allowed just one run and his team won 6-1 as a +140 dog. As we went over yesterday, the Angels lineup has been a lot better since Mike Trout returned. Play on LA Angels AAA |
|||||||
08-07-20 | Twins -170 v. Royals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -170 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Though they lost Thursday afternoon, the Twins have gotten off to a great start at 10-3. They very much looked well on their way to another victory yesterday, but the bullpen collapsed, allowing three runs in the last two innings. Still you’ve got to like their chances today facing the Royals, who despite a big 13-2 win yesterday are just 4-10 on the year. Going into yesterday, the Twins had won six in a row while the Royals had lost six in a row. Minnesota is not only one of the highest scoring teams in baseball (5.2 runs/game), their pitching staff has a 2.97 ERA, which is 2nd best among American League teams and 4th best overall. Devin Smeltzer starts for the first time in 2020 today, but it’ll be his third appearance for the Twins. Smeltzer’s best start last year was against the Royals, whom he held to just two singles across six frames. Jacob Junis will also be making his second start for KC. The first one resulted in a 9-2 loss to the White Sox. Junis has 4.28 ERA in seven career starts against the Twins. Minnesota should roll here. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
|||||||
08-06-20 | Angels -164 v. Mariners | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the ANGELS The Angels lost to the Mariners 7-6 last night in what was a back and forth ball game. They’d previously won the series opener 5-3 but are still a disappointing 2-3 vs. Seattle in 2020 despite being priced as a decided favorite in all five games. We’ll back them with Bundy on the mound this afternoon as it’s been two quality starts so far for the former Baltimore Oriole. Bundy did take the “L” last time out, which was against Seattle, but he only allowed three runs on four hits. The Mariners had lost four in a row before yesterday’s win and this is a team that can’t really score runs on a consistent basis. The Angels are still 26-7 as a road favorite of -125 to -175 the past three seasons. Today is the first time they’ll have both Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani in the batting order. Trout is having an excellent series so far with three home runs. Seattle starter Taijuan Walker has had one good start (Oakland) and one bad one (Houston) and we don’t think he’s consistent enough to trust here. The Angels are due to start playing better. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
|||||||
08-04-20 | Rangers v. A's -150 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland had one big inning last night in Seattle and that proved to be more than enough as they crushed the Mariners 11-1. The A’s scored eight times in the fifth, all of those runs coming with two outs. They ended up sending 14 men to the plate in the one inning (most since a game in Sept ‘18) and could have scored even more as they ended up leaving the bases loaded. It was a welcome sight for A’s fans as the team hadn’t been hitting all that well so far in 2020. But the team has still managed to win three in a row and we expect the offensive resurgence to continue tonight against Lance Lynn and Texas. While Lynn has pitched well in his two 2020 starts, both were at home. He had a 2-1 record vs. Oakland last season, but his ERA in those starts was 5.56. Also, the Rangers have not yet been able to string together consecutive victories. They won Sunday, 9-5 against the Giants, but that was their only win of that series. Oakland was 13-6 vs. Texas in 2019. Tonight is also the starting debut for the much hyped Jesus Luzardo, who is the top pitching prospect in the A’s organization. Look for him to live up to the hype. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
|||||||
08-03-20 | Giants v. Rockies -140 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO The Rockies are off to a fine 6-2 start. After a bit of a slow start at the plate, they’ve scored at least five runs in each of the last six games. Over the weekend, they took two of three from the Padres and are now in first place in the National League West. They’ve gotten quality starts the last two days as their starters shockingly lead MLB with a 2.00 ERA. On Monday they are hoping Chi Chi Gonzalez, who will be making his first start of 2020, keeps the trend going. He faces a Giants team that had been hitting the ball well prior to a 9-5 loss to Texas on Sunday. That snapped a two-game win streak for them. We still don’t trust San Francisco despite the respectable 5-5 start. Johnny Cueto wasn’t good against the Padres last week, lasting only 3 ⅔ while also giving up four runs, and we don’t expect him to pitch well at this tough venue Monday. The Rockies have won 56 of their last 76 games as a home favorite. Play on COLORADO AAA |
|||||||
08-02-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the DODGERS This series finale sees the Dodgers looking for its third win in four games and they’ve got Clayton Kershaw starting for the first time in 2020. Saturday’s game wasn’t competitive as the Dodgers homered four times en route to an 11-2 victory. There were three big innings and note the fact that last year’s MVP Corey Bellinger wasn’t even in the lineup. Kershaw is 16-10 with a 2.84 ERA in 33 starts vs. Arizona. He’s backed by a bullpen that has posted outstanding numbers thus far. Overall, the Dodgers are giving up the third least runs per game in the league right now while scoring the fifth most. Add it up and they’ve got the best run differential in all of baseball. As for Arizona, well, they are struggling. They are scoring the third fewest runs per game in baseball while giving up the eighth most. We wouldn’t look for Merrill Kelly to reprise the effort he gave in his first start of 2020 as that came against a Texas team that’s struggled to hit. Speaking of struggling to hit, the Diamondbacks could only manage five singles Saturday. They have not had more than eight hits in any game to date. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
08-01-20 | Rangers v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The Giants are being rather coy with their starting pitching, often not naming the official starter until late in the day. Drew Smyly will end up getting the baseball on Saturday. He was okay in his first outing, only giving up a run in 3 ⅓ innings. Even more impressive is that the Giants won the game 3-1 as a +260 underdog against the Dodgers. What Smyly and the Giants are up against tonight isn’t nearly as formidable. Texas has scored 2 or fewer runs in all but one of its games. But don’t look for San Fran to score nine runs again as they did last night. They’ll face Jordan Lyles, who ended 2019 with an 8-0 TSR over his final eight starts. In addition, he threw two hitless innings of relief on Tuesday. 8* on UNDER AAA |
|||||||
08-01-20 | Pirates v. Cubs -154 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CUBS The Cubs took care of business Friday night, beating the Pirates 6-3. The Cubs are now 5-2 on the young season while the Pirates are 2-5. We see no reason why things won’t go “according to script” this evening. Pittsburgh came into last night’s game hitting a MLB-low .171. Five of their seven hits came over the final two innings against what has admittedly been a shaky Cubs bullpen. Saturday starter Mitch Keller posted a 6.75 ERA in two starts vs. the Cubs last year. Despite winning his first start of 2020 (5-1 vs. St. Louis), Keller had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2). Tyler Chatwood looked a lot better in his first start for the Cubs as he not only went six innings, but only gave up one run. He had eight strikeouts vs. just one walk. Though he’s never beaten the Pirates, Chatwood has 19 strikeouts in 28 innings against them. 10* CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
07-31-20 | Padres v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Rockies started the season by taking two of three in Texas. They held the Rangers to a grand total of five runs in the three games and there was some chatter about whether or not that had something to do with the new ballpark in Arlington. But then the Rockies went to Oakland and won both games while allowing only four runs total. How much this pitching staff has actually improved remains to be seen, but one thing is for certain. We’re likely about to see a dramatic turn as the team plays at home for the first time in 2020. Coors Field is a “whole different ball game” as the Rockies allowed 6.7 runs/game here in 2019. On the bright side, they also scored 6.2, which led all of baseball. Their opponent this weekend is San Diego, a team that has opened 5-2 and scored 44 runs (leads league in those seven games. We don’t expect the Padres to slow down a bit offensively in this series, Starters Jon Gray and Garrett Richards will not be able to contain the respective offenses here. 10* on OVER AAA |
|||||||
07-31-20 | White Sox -170 v. Royals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS We like the White Sox chances quite a bit here. Pitching hasn’t been great so far, but Dallas Keuchel was the exception to that rule when he kept the Twins to two runs in 5+ innings. The Twins are obviously one of the league’s premier offensive teams. The Royals are not. So Keuchel should turn in a second straight good start for his new team. Kansas City played yesterday in Detroit (they won 5-3) while Chicago had off. Only eight games into the season, the Royals are sending a second starter out to make his big league debut. Brad Singer was the first (pitched yesterday) and that went well. But again, that was versus the Tigers. Kansas City hasn’t played a home game yet, but it’s not like they’ve been very good at Kauffman Stadium the last two years. Their record here is 62-99. Look for Keuchel to lead a talented White Sox team to victory tonight. 8* on CHICAGO AAA |
|||||||
07-31-20 | Mets v. Braves -128 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA 40% of the NL East has been “put on ice” due to COVID-19 concerns, however the Braves and Mets have each played their full complement of games. Atlanta is 4-3 while outscoring the opposition by a total of nine runs. The Mets are 3-4 and have been outscored by six runs. This weekend will be the second go-around for the division rivals as last weekend saw Atlanta take two of three in Citi Field. The lone loss was Opening Day and by a score of 1-0. So the Braves easily could have swept. The final game of that series saw them clobber Rick Porcello on their way to a 14-1 win. They again get to face Porcello tonight. Porcello was tagged for seven runs in just two innings last Sunday night and while he might not be that bad again here, we’ve got little reason to believe he’ll be GOOD. He’s now allowed six or more runs nine times since the beginning of last season. Atlanta is 2-0 at home having beaten the Rays 7-4 and 2-1 the last two days. Sean Newcomb will again oppose Porcello just like last Sunday. Newcomb wasn’t great last time, but didn’t have to be. He is 2-0 with a 0.79 ERA in two previous home starts against them. Atlanta has been better so far and Porcello is not to be trusted. 8* on ATLANTA AAA |
|||||||
07-31-20 | Reds -145 v. Tigers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -145 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI This is the Reds chance at redemption after they shockingly dropped two of three to the Tigers last weekend. The series started out well enough with Cincy taking the first game 7-1. But the team wouldn’t win again until Wednesday when they beat the Cubs 12-7. The Reds are a team that came into the season with a lot of hype. The pitching staff did have 46 strikeouts in the three games vs. the Tigers. Even though this series is in Detroit, we like the Reds chances tonight. They had yesterday off due to a rainout while the Tigers played the Royals and lost 5-3. While the Reds made a pitching change today (originally was going to be Trevor Bauer), we’ve got no issue with Luis Castillo, who allowed just one run and struck out 11 Tigers last Saturday. Castillo was originally set to pitch yesterday before the rainout The Tigers were terrible last season, losing 110+ games. They are not to be trusted this year and this looks to be a really cheap price to go against a team that’s played seven straight days. Turnbull had four walks and lasted just five innings when he faced Bauer last weekend, so he was lucky to get a no-decision. No such luck this time against Castillo. 8* on CINCINNATI AAA |
|||||||
07-30-20 | Dodgers -143 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the DODGERS While it doesn’t make up for losing the 2017 World Series, it sure had to feel good for the Dodgers to take both games against Houston this week. Last night’s game went 13 innings, with LA winning 4-2. The Dodgers are the best team in baseball in our estimation and should continue to roll tonight in Arizona where they’ll face the division rival Diamondbacks. Arizona has yet to score more than four runs in any game. That’s a problem period, but especially when up against arguably the strongest lineup in MLB. Don’t expect things to change for the D’backs today against Ross Stripling. Stripling gave up one run in seven innings his first start, a 9-1 win over the Giants. While this is Arizona’s first home game, that’s not enough to overcome a much better ballclub. They’re going with Robbie Ray, who actually has good career numbers vs. LA but he didn’t look all that impressive last week. Ray lasted only 3 ⅔ innings and walked three batters in a game Arizona lost 5-1. 10* on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
07-29-20 | Padres -165 v. Giants | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego is off to fast start as they are now 4-1 after beating San Francisco 5-3 on Tuesday. With Chad Paddack starting tonight’s game, it would seem likely that the Padres are going to move to 5-1. Paddack tossed six shutout innings last Friday and held the Diamondbacks to just four hits. The Padres won 7-2. Paddack got off to a hot start last year, posting 1.91 ERA in March & April. He also had a 2.65 ERA in three starts vs. SF across the entire 2019 season. The Giants weren’t going to be a good team this year regardless, but their curious management of the pitching staff all but ensures they’ll finish way off the pace in the NL West. Starters aren’t going beyond the 6th inning, which becomes an issue when your bullpen has an ERA of 4.15 already. Granted that’s just five games, but no one expects the Giants’ pen to be anything special this year. Same as last year, the Giants are awful offensively as they are batting just .217 as a team so far. Johnny Cueto starts tonight and he’s getting up there in years. He went just four innings in his first start. 8* on SAN DIEGO AAA |
|||||||
07-29-20 | Brewers -145 v. Pirates | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee seemed well on its way to a second straight win in Pittsburgh last night. They led 6-2 going into the bottom of the 7th, but then the “script was flipped” on them from the previous night when they rallied back from four runs down to win. The Pirates tied it up in the bottom of the seventh and then Adam Frazier’s two run blast in the 8th proved to be the difference maker. Both teams are 2-3 coming into tonight where the Brewers are again favored and for good reason. Both teams are going for their first series win and will turn to their respective Opening Day starters. But whereas Milwaukee has yet to lose two in a row, Pittsburgh hasn’t won two in a row this season. Woodruff seems like a solid bet for Milwaukee after he gave up just two runs in his first start. We have much more concern over Musgrove for Pittsburgh as he allowed a pair of home runs on Opening Day. Musgrove also has a 6.46 ERA in four career starts vs. the Brewers. 8* on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
07-29-20 | Nationals -155 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASHINGTON This series was originally set to take place in Toronto, but when COVID-19 made that an impossibility the series was moved to D.C. Homefield didn’t help the Nationals last night, who fell to 1-4 with a 5-1 loss. The Blue Jays scored three unearned runs Tuesday night, which was a big part of the difference. But tonight Washington has Max Scherzer starting and that should ensure the World Series champs get back on track. Obviously the current situation has to be a huge distraction for the Jays as they are still working on setting up a “permanent” home in Buffalo (where their “home games” will be played this year). Scherzer did struggle on Opening Night vs. the Yankees, though he did have 11 strikeouts. Expect him to settle down and pitch even better on Wednesday. In addition to having a 2.99 career ERA here at Nationals Park, Scherzer also boasts a 2.24 ERA in nine starts vs. Toronto. The fact that Toronto is the designated “home team” for the next two days obviously means next to nothing. Tonight’s starter Nate Pearson is a touted prospect, but won’t be enough to get the job done. 10* on WASHINGTON AAA |
|||||||
07-28-20 | Rockies v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Rockies didn’t do a ton of scoring in Texas during the 1st series of the young season. In fact, all three games stayed Under as they managed just eight runs total. But the bigger story was their pitching, which held the Rangers to only five runs. As a result, Colorado won two of the three games. That was a new stadium the Rockies were playing in and it remains to be seen if they can keep up that level of pitching prowess as they move to Oakland Tuesday. The A’s posted a 3-0 shutout here yesterday, making it a 3-1 start for them. The A’s bullpen was really good against the Angels, but may not be able to keep that up vs. a NL team playing with a DH. Daniel Mengden had a 4.94 ERA at home last year and only one of the five starts was a quality one. Colorado starter Senzatela may have bigger problems as his ERA was 7.29 away from home in 2019. We “smell” an Over here as neither pitching staff is likely to perform as well as they did over the weekend. 10* on OVER AAA |
|||||||
07-28-20 | Dodgers -137 v. Astros | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the DODGERS What many would consider a potential World Series matchup goes down Tuesday in Houston as the Astros host the Dodgers. It says a lot that the road team is favored so definitively in this spot. While the Dodgers shockingly split their four-game series with the Giants (lost the last two days), they are the consensus best team for 2020. Houston had quite the offseason with the franchise’s reputation forever tainted due to the cheating scandal. Despite this, they’ve opened 3-1. But that was against the Mariners. It’s a big jump in class for them here (as it is for the Dodgers). For Tuesday’s opener, the starting pitching matchup decidedly favors the Dodgers. They go with Walker Buehler who had 215 strikeouts in 182 innings last year. Buehler allowed 1 or 0 runs 16 times in 2019. For the Astros, Framber Valdez is someone with a 5.25 ERA in 13 starts. The Astros starting rotation is simply not as strong as it's been in past years and that’s an issue facing a Dodgers lineup that is as strong as any in the league. It won’t make up for the 2017 World Series, but LA wins here. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
|||||||
07-28-20 | Brewers -155 v. Pirates | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee may very well have “broken” Pittsburgh’s spirit with a four-run rally in the ninth Monday. The road team would go on to win 6-5 in 11 innings and for a Pirates team that’s not very good, that result is likely to be a “backbreaker.” It was somewhat remarkable that the Pirates went into the 9th with a 5-1 lead as they’d collected only four hits the entire game. So maybe what happened late was a case of “just desserts.” Regardless of WHY it happened, the rally last night by the Brewers is likely to carry over to this game. The Pirates pitching staff is in rough shape as Derek Holland (8.10 ERA last year for the Giants) gets the start. The bullpen struggles were on full display last night as closer Keone Kela is out because of COVID-19 concerns. Josh Lindblom gets the start for the Brewers after spending the last two years pitching in Korea where he was that league’s best pitcher. Yesterday was the Bucs chance to “steal” one and they failed. Their offense has been unable to score more than five runs in any game so far. 10* on MILWAUKEE AAA |
|||||||
07-27-20 | Royals v. Tigers -131 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -131 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DETROIT Taking Detroit, you ask? The Tigers put forth one of the more hideous seasons in recent memory last year, however, they are 2-1 so far in 2020. Furthermore, the team they took two of three from was the heavily hyped Reds and they did so on the road. Now the Tigers actually find themselves favored to win a game, something that was only the case 26 times in all of ‘19. The key is that they are facing the Royals at home. Kansas City is also a team you shouldn’t expect much from in this abbreviated 60-game season. They lost two of three at Cleveland in their first series and scored only five runs in the three games. Monday’s starter for the Royals will be Mike Montgomery and he allowed two home runs in his final exhibition outing, which isn’t a good sign. The Tigers are going with an opener for their home opener and it will be Michael Fulmer, who has not pitched in a major league game since 2018 due to undergoing Tommy John surgery. Fulmer was AL Rookie of the Year back in 2016 though and it speaks volumes that he and the Tigers are favored in this spot. 10* DETROIT AAA |