Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-31-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD Over the past week, Atlanta has cooled off. Playing the Yankees, Giants and Dodgers will do that to you. After winning nine in a row from 8/13 to 8/22, the Braves have dropped four of their last six. They lost 5-3 last night. It is unlikely that they will turn things around tonight at Dodgers Stadium. Walker Buehler is pitching for the home side and he’s 13-2 in 26 starts. His ERA and WHIP are down to 2.02 and 0.92. LA has won the last four times he’s started and he has a 1.13 ERA the last seven starts. We’re not in the habit of betting against one of the best teams in baseball when their top pitcher is going. Charlie Morton is having a fine year for Atlanta but did allow four runs last week in a home loss to the Yankees. He gave up two home runs. Going back to Buehler, he dominated the Braves in last year’s National League Championship Series. He held them to one run in 11 innings. He’s also beaten them both times he’s faced them in the regular season. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-30-21 | Brewers -136 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE There aren’t many pitchers in the game hotter than Corbin Burnes is right now. The Brewers right-hander has not dropped a decision since May 25th. The team has won his last seven starts with Burnes putting up a 2.18 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He’s allowed one run or less in five of the seven starts. Tonight’s start will have a decided “postseason feel” as Burnes will face the Giants, the team with the best record in baseball. But Burnes has proven he can handle the Giants. It was earlier this month that he held them to one run and four hits over seven innings. Milwaukee ended up winning 2-1. They won Sunday in Minnesota 6-2. That put a stop to their longest losing streak (three games) since the All Star Break. No team has more road victories than the Brewers’ 43 this season. So they won’t be fazed heading to Oracle Park. They’ve got their best pitcher on the mound for tonight’s opener. The Giants just got through a 10-day road trip and it ended with a 9-0 loss to Atlanta on Sunday. They hit just .209 on that trip. Johnny Cueto is not going to be able to outduel Burnes tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-30-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Arizona’s Tyler Gilbert made his first career start 16 days ago. It was a performance he’ll never forget. Gilbert was the first left-handed pitcher since 1953 to throw a no-hitter in his debut. Now he will once again face the same team he threw that no-hitter against. San Diego is in a free-fall right now and hasn’t been the same since being no-hit by Gilbert. The Padres’ record over the past 16 games is 3-13. They have been held to three runs or fewer in 10 of those 16 contests. They last played on Saturday and lost 10-2 to the Angels. We don’t think they’ll give up that many runs again tonight. The number of runs San Diego allowed on Saturday was their most in a game since an August 12th loss to Arizona. Chris Paddack is set to make his return after missing a month due to injury. Arizona is an ideal opponent for him to return against. Paddack has a 3.38 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Diamondbacks. Arizona was shut out on Saturday, then scored just four runs on Sunday. They lost both games. We can’t possibly get behind the Diamondbacks, a team with a 44-88 record on the year. But we don’t want to back the slumping Padres either. We are confident that the opener of this series will belong to the pitchers though. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-29-21 | Reds -174 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -174 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Yesterday marked a first in the 2021 MLB season as the Reds fell to the Marlins. Cincy had previously been 5-0 vs. Miami this year and was 11-1 against them since the start of 2019. We had the Reds when they won 6-0 here on Friday. We think they’ll bounce back today. Today’s starting pitching matchup looks to be in their favor. Tyler Mahle has been just tremendous when he starts on the road for the Reds. He is 7-1 with a 1.92 ERA. A five-run first inning by the Marlins is what doomed the Reds on Saturday. With Mahle starting this afternoon, that’s not going to happen again. But Jesus Luzardo has had his problems for Miami and he’s the starter more likely to struggle today. In his last three starts, Luzardo has a 9.94 ERA. It’s been that kind of year for the lefty. He has a 7.51 ERA overall and 6.69 ERA at home. Yesterday was only the third win for the Marlins in their past 12 games. The Reds are holding on to the NL’s second Wild Card right now and thus can’t afford another loss to a last place opponent. They are 30-12 L42 games as a favorite. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-29-21 | Cardinals -168 v. Pirates | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -168 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STL St. Louis was a 13-0 winner last night as they try to stay relevant in the playoff race. They’ve had little difficulty winning here in Pittsburgh all season. Last night brought them to 8-1 at PNC Park in 2021. That’s really not shocking. The Pirates have baseball’s fourth worst overall record and the second worst run differential. They’ve scored the fewest runs in the majors. Last night was all about Adam Wainwright as he extended his own personal scoreless streak against the Pirates to 26 innings. He is unbeaten his last 17 starts against them, which includes a 4-0 record and 0.30 ERA this season. The Pirates could only manage five hits Saturday. Wil Crowe, who will be the Pirates starter Sunday, is having a much different August compared to Wainwright. Crowe is winless with a 5.71 ERA in his past four starts. He has lost two of his three starts against the Cardinals this year. Kwang-Hyun Kim, a lefty, will hope to pick up where Wainwright left off. There was a three-start stretch last month where Kim did not allow any runs. Though his ERA is up over his last three starts, the WHIP is fine and he’s clearly better than Crowe. We don’t see the Cardinals coming anywhere close to making the playoffs, but they are 8-1 as road favorites of -125 to -175 and seem to have no problem beating the Pirates. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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08-28-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Houston and Texas have played one another 13 times in 2021. The one win by the road team was last night with Houston coming out on top 5-4. It wasn’t looking good early as the Astros trailed 4-0 going into the seventh. But then they erupted for five runs as six consecutive batters reached base. While we acknowledge Houston had just two hits before that, this is the highest scoring team in the game. They put up 5.5 runs/game on the road and have averaged 6.6 their last seven games. They should get to Rangers starter Kolby Allard Saturday night. Allard has been better this month, but still has a 5.29 ERA and his last three starts have all gone Over. The last time he saw Houston, it was ugly as he gave up seven runs. Texas is playing hard, scoring at least four runs in six of the last eight ball games. If they can do that again, then this game should easily eclipse the total. Framber Valdez has been pretty inconsistent for Houston this year. So while he dominated the Rangers last month, it could be a much different story on the road. The Astros are 7-2-2 Over their last 11 games at Texas. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-28-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -121 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TOR -1.5 Toronto suffered a crushing one-run defeat at the hands of Detroit Friday night. The 2-1 final was decided by an inside the park HR from Tigers’ pinch-hitter Victor Reyes in home half of the eighth. That it was the first time in the expansion era that a pinch hitter won the game with an inside the park home run is of little matter to the Blue Jays. They now face a 6.5 game deficit in the Wild Card race and are 1-3 vs. the Tigers this month. They’ve got to turn things around and we like their chances Saturday against Jose Urena. Urena has not pitched in over a month due to a groin injury. When he was pitching, he wasn’t very effective. In 17 starts, he has a 6.19 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He’s 2-8 and winless at home. Urena has pitched worse at Comerica Park than he has on the road, so this really is a golden opportunity for Toronto’s hitters to get back on track. The Tigers will also use Tyler Alexander, but the key is jumping on Urena early. We think Alex Manoah will do his job for Toronto. He’s had his fair share of quality starts recently. He held the White Sox to a run in six innings on Monday. That was the seventh time in eight starts he allowed two runs or less. The Blue Jays are a better ballclub and shouldn’t lose two days in a row. They will win here by multiple runs. Play on TORONTO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-27-21 | Reds -139 v. Marlins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati knows how to beat Miami. They’ve come out ahead 10 of the last 11 times they’ve faced the Marlins. The teams had not faced each other in 2021 prior to last weekend when the Reds won all four home games. To be fair, lots of teams beat up on the last place Marlins. The Fish were on an eight-game slide entering Wednesday. They’ve since beaten Washington two times, 4-3 and 7-5. But we don’t expect them to solve the Big Red Machine Friday night. The Reds won in Milwaukee Thursday afternoon 5-1. So with San Diego losing, they have a two-game lead for the second Wild Card. Sonny Gray pitched a strong game yesterday. We expect Wade Miley to do the same thing tonight. Miley has a 15-8 team start record and has won his last six decisions. He leads the entire team in WAR. In six career starts against Miami, Miley has a 1.86 ERA. He’s simply a better pitcher than Miami’s Zach Thompson, who has seen his ERA steadily rise all year. It’s now up to 3.12. Thompson’s team start record in his last eight starts is 1-7. The Marlins likely won’t have CF Brinson for tonight’s opener after he sprained his thumb last night. It doesn’t look good when you are 14-25 vs. left-handed starters and facing Miley, who not only just beat them last week but has also given up only seven runs in his last four starts. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-27-21 | Blue Jays -164 v. Tigers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto played yesterday. Detroit did not. Both teams are off losses though. The Blue Jays lost at home to the White Sox 10-7 on Thursday. The Tigers lost 3-2 at St. Louis Wednesday afternoon. The Tigers may have a slight edge when it comes to the schedule, but Toronto has more talent. Now detractors would quickly point to last weekend when the Blue Jays lost two of the three home games vs. the Tigers. But they are still in playoff contention. They are 5.5 games back of the Wild Card with 36 games left. Detroit is six games below .500 and playing out the string. Friday’s pitching matchup definitely favors Toronto. They’ve got Steven Matz and he’s allowed only six runs in four August starts. Half of those runs he allowed were unearned. He pitched well vs. Detroit when he faced them Sunday. He went six innings and the only run he allowed was Miguel Cabrera’s 500th career homer. Matt Manning has started three games for the Tigers this month. In the first of the three, he allowed the same number of runs that Matz had allowed all month long. Manning also walked four batters in his most recent start, a season-high. Matz has pitched better on the road this year. Toronto is 9-4 off its previous 13 losses. They are on a 23-8 run vs. teams with losing records. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-26-21 | Yankees -109 v. A's | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY The Wild Card race in the American League has changed dramatically over the last 10 games. The Yankees are 10-0 while the A’s 2-8. The Yankees will be looking for their 12th straight win tonight. This sudden surge has them holding the top Wild Card spot. The A’s, losers of four in a row, are 1.5 games back of Boston for the second Wild Card. It wasn’t that long ago that Oakland seemed like a shoo-in for the postseason. Right now, we don’t see how you bet against this Yankees team. They’ve got Jameson Taillon set to start Thursday’s game. He has not lost a decision since May 31st, going 7-0 in 14 starts with a 3.21 ERA. The team is 23-5 in the last 28 games, making them the hottest team in the majors right now. Oakland has scored only five runs in the last three games. Kaprielian has been good for the A’s, but Taillon remembers June 18th, a game the two faced off and Oakland won 5-3. The two had pretty similar numbers that day. Though the A’s won that one, the Yankees won the other two games of that series. These are two teams going in different directions right now. Play on NY YANKEES AAA |
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08-26-21 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We cashed the Under AND the Brewers yesterday in this matchup, but today we’re taking the Over. The first two games of this series saw the Brewers send out Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, their two top pitchers. Today they are forced to settle on Brett Anderson. Anderson’s ERA over his past three starts is 6.59. His WHIP is 1.61. He’s lost his last two starts. In 10 career starts vs. Cincinnati, Anderson is 4-3 with a 4.13 ERA. The Reds put up 5.0 runs/game when they are opposed by a left-handed starter. If they can score four runs off Burnes, they are certainly capable of doing the same or more vs. Anderson. The Brewers may have only scored four runs last night, but the three previous games saw them cross the plate a total of 23 times. They are 3-0 against Sonny Gray this season and that’s who they’ll be facing this afternoon. Milwaukee comes in averaging 5.1 runs/game when they are up against a right-handed starter. The Reds also have bullpen issues. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-25-21 | Dodgers -142 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 9* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers beat the slumping Padres 5-2 last night. Looking at the NL West standings, there is now an 11.5 game gap between the two teams. That’s not what the San Diego faithful expected from 2021. They were supposed to challenge LA for division supremacy. Instead, they are a bit of an afterthought in third place. They may not even make the playoffs as they’re locked into a tight race with Cincinnati for the second Wild Card spot. They enter today one game behind the Reds. As bad as the Padres need to win here, the Dodgers aren’t going to lie down. They are trying to catch the Giants for first place. The Dodgers should still be considered the best team in MLB. They have won 14 of 16. The Padres have lost 10 of 12. San Diego leads the season series 7-4, but the Dodgers have won the season series each of the last 10 years. It was a 5-0 game heading into the bottom of the eighth last night. The Padres are just 4-11 as home underdogs of +125 to +175. Walker Buehler is set to start this game for Los Angeles. He is 13-2 this year with a 2.11 ERA. That ERA is tops in the National League. His only losses this year were games where the Dodgers were shutout. Buehler is 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA vs. San Diego all-time. The Padres’ starting rotation is in tatters right now and it would take a near perfect effort from Blake Snell to get the job done here. We don’t see that happening. Play on LA DODGERS AAA |
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08-25-21 | Reds v. Brewers -170 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee rallied past Cincinnati last night for a 7-4 win. The prior six meetings had all been won by the road team. More importantly for the Brewers, the win stretched their lead in the NL Central to 8.5 games. The Reds aren’t going to catch them, but the good news is that the Wild Card is still an option. They currently lead the Padres by one game in the race for the second WC spot. The Brewers played “small ball” on Tuesday night, scoring three runs on sacrifice flies. Reds’ hitters did surprisingly well against Brewers’ ace Corbin Burnes. But look for them to struggle vs. Brandon Woodruff tonight. Woodruff did have a rough outing last week in St. Louis and his team start record since 7/25 is just 1-4. However, Woodruff has allowed only two runs in two starts vs. the Reds this year. His 2.48 ERA is still among the very best in the league. Cincinnati doesn’t do nearly the amount of scoring on the road that they do at home. Luis Castillo has not had the greatest season for them on the mound. His TSR is 10-16 overall and 4-9 on the road. A 5.27 ERA in those 13 road starts certainly helps explain that record. Milwaukee is 30 games over .500 since May 21st. They will win tonight. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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08-25-21 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER So in addition to liking the Brewers, we also like this game to go Under. In the other writeup, the exploits of Brandon Woodruff were detailed. The Over has hit in each of his last three starts. But that’s atypical. The Under had gone 13-6-2 in his first 21 starts. The Under is also 6-2 when the Reds face the Brewers here in Milwaukee this season. Yesterday was one of the two Overs. But even though we like Milwaukee to win here, we don’t see them scoring seven runs again. This is a team that averages just 4.3 runs/contest at home. They bat .221 at American Family Field. They will win this game because of Woodruff. Willy Adames and Eduardo Escobar, two very productive hitters, are both out of the Brewers lineup today. The Under is 38-18-4 in Milwaukee’s previous 60 games against teams that have winning records. The Under is also 37-13-4 in Cincinnati’s last 54 Wednesday games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-24-21 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -122 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Based on the fact they have scored 117 more runs than they have allowed, you’d think Toronto would have one of the best records in baseball. But they don’t. They are stuck in fourth place in the American League East with a 65-58 record. They did win yesterday though, 2-1 over American League Central leading Chicago. The Blue Jays are 4.5 games out of the Wild Card and need to jump three teams. The White Sox postseason future is much more secure as they lead their division by nine games. So Toronto should be the team playing with a greater sense of urgency in this series. It also says a lot that they’d be favored to beat a team like the White Sox. Tonight’s pitching matchup has a lot to do with it. Jose Berrios, obtained in a trade with the Twins at the deadline, is no stranger to facing Chicago. He’s 12-4 in his career against them and has a 2.91 ERA. For the White Sox, starter Dylan Cease has never faced Toronto. Cease did allow four walks and two home runs in his most recent outing. The White Sox are only a .500 team on the road (30-30). They are 14-38 L52 as road underdogs. The way Toronto won last night’s game, scoring the game-winning run on a wild pitch, should give them some momentum heading into today. They are 12-4 L16 home games. Play on TORONTO AAA |
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08-24-21 | Mariners v. A's -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Seattle pulled the “rabbit out of the hat” yet again on Monday. They rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth and beat Oakland 5-3. It was a crushing loss for the A’s, who are now on the “outside looking in” when it comes to the Wild Card race. The blown lead comes on the heels of the last series with the Mariners, which saw the A’s lose three games by one run. The Mariners have thrived in close games all season. Oakland has not. At least recently they haven’t. Before yesterday’s blown lead, the A’s lost two straight one-run decisions to the Giants. The last 12 runs they’ve allowed, going back to Friday, have all been via the home run. It’s probably good then that Cole Irvin is starting Tuesday afternoon. Irvin not only has a 3.13 ERA in his L10 starts, but has only given up a total of three home runs during that stretch. Seattle starter Chris Flexen may have a 16-7 team start record, but Irvin has a lower ERA and WHIP. The Mariners have won 9 of 12 but only one of those wins was by more than two runs and not in extra innings. They have a penchant for getting blown out. That’s what we think will happen today. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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08-23-21 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOU -1.5 The last series between Houston and Kansas City produced some very shocking results. It was the Royals that won three of the four games. Houston’s only win came in the last game of the series and they had to battle back from an early 3-0 deficit to win in extra innings. That series was last week, so it’s fresh in the Astros’ players minds. The weekend went better for them. They took two of three from Seattle. The two wins were dominant: 12-3 and 15-1. The loss, which was yesterday, saw them blow an early 2-0 advantage and lose 6-3 in 11 innings. So it was basically the reverse of the previous Kansas City series. We really like Houston to start this series with a win. Greinke has 1.89 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his last three starts. He only gave up one run when faced the Royals last Wednesday. Greinke has 2.68 ERA in six starts vs. KC, whom he pitched for from 2004-10. The Royals followed up the successful series with the Astros by sweeping the Cubs. So they have won six of their last seven games. But there is a 17.5 game difference in the standings between these teams. Rookie Daniel Lynch has a 5.12 ERA. His three road starts have produced a very high WHIP (1.61) as well. Kansas City has just three win streaks longer than three games all year. One was in April. Can’t see Houston losing to them again. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-23-21 | Rockies +117 v. Cubs | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Something is going to have to give here as the Rockies are 14-45 on the road, but the Cubs have lost a franchise record 13 straight home games. In spite of the poor road record, we’re citing Colorado as they at least have some positive momentum coming off a 5-1 homestand. They did lose Sunday to Arizona, but that was after five straight wins with five or more runs scored every time out. The Cubs are 3-16 overall in August and were just swept by the Royals. The mass exodus of talent at the trade deadline has turned them into one of the worst teams in the league. Kyle Hendricks has been their saving grace this year. But it seems as if Hendricks should feel fortunate to be tied for the MLB lead in wins. He has a 4.04 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. The last time he pitched at Wrigley, Hendricks gave up nine runs and lasted just four innings. There have been five games this year where Hendricks has surrendered at least five runs. Four of those were at home. Senzatela hasn’t won on the road this year, but he is coming off two straight quality outings. The Rockies are on a 27-14 run against teams with losing records. Play on COLORADO AAA |
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08-22-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -159 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAA +1.5 (RUN LINE) Cleveland looks to sweep LA Sunday night. They have held the Angels to just two runs in the first two games. After a 9-1 win on Friday, things were a “touch” closer on Saturday afternoon. But the Indians still prevailed by a comfortable 5-1 margin. This is now the first time in August that the Tribe has won two in a row. Both they and the Angels are now one game below .500. It’s difficult to see either team getting back into real playoff contention, but at least today’s winner can exit the weekend at the Mendoza Line. It’s obviously been a tough series for the road team, but we are confident that they can keep the game within a run tonight. Indians starter Cal Quantrill has seen four of his last seven starts decided by a one-run margin. The team has lost three of those four one-run games. They are 3-9 in Quantrill’s last 12 starts with five of the losses coming by a run. Cleveland is just 25-34 after a win this season. But the big key to this game is that it’s being played in Williamsport, PA, not Cleveland. It’s part of the Little League World Series festivities. That’s a break for the Angels, who start a lefty - Jose Suarez - in this spot. Suarez pitched well Monday despite taking a hard-luck 2-1 loss at Yankee Stadium. Besides a first inning homer, Suarez allowed only three other hits. He also struck out six in five innings. Play on LA ANGELS +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Braves v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) Yes, we’re gonna do it. At some point this morning, you probably heard that not only has Baltimore lost 16 consecutive games but all 16 losses have been by two or more runs. So that’s an 0-16 run on the run line that they are on as well. They are starting Matt Harvey on Saturday. Certainly things are not looking rosy for the home team in Camden Yards. But we are willing to take a flier and say the Orioles can at least stay within a run today. It’s extremely difficult to keep losing games by multiple runs like this. Harvey ended July with an 18-plus inning scoreless streak, so he’s capable of keeping Atlanta in check. The Braves only scored three times Friday night. They are only 4-12 in interleague play this season after yesterday’s win. Drew Smyly should feel very thankful for his team start record because his own numbers are not that great. He has a 1.54 WHIP on the road. He also has a 5.14 ERA in the last three starts. He’s only gone four innings in four of his last five starts. The Braves have won Smyly’s last five starts. But the last two wins both came by just a run. Play on BALTIMORE +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-21-21 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Dodgers look to be unstoppable right now as they’ve won eight straight games. But we should point out that five of those wins came by one run. It was 3-2 over the Mets on Friday. That was the same number of runs that we saw scored in Thursday’s game, which was a 4-1 win by the home team. We think the Dodgers will come out swinging today. It’s crucial to remember that they are the NL’s highest scoring team. Only two other National League teams are within 40 runs of their season total, those being the Reds and Braves. They should put some runs on the board here vs. Rich Hil, a former teammate of theirs. Hill typically doesn’t go past the fifth inning. The Mets’ bullpen has an ERA of 4.70 on the road, so the more we see of them, the more likely it is the Dodgers might put this one Over all by themselves. Mets’ road games average about two more runs/game than Mets’ home games. Max Scherzer, now 3-0 in three starts for the Dodgers, was supported with 14 runs when he started against the Mets last week. He allowed two runs. We think he will give up more today. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-21 | Phillies v. Padres OVER 9 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a 10* on OVER These are two teams having bad weeks. Philadelphia was swept by Arizona. San Diego was swept by Colorado. But if there’s one bit of solace for the Padres it’s that they are the ones who get to head back home. They have a 40-24 home mark. But we feel that there’s a better chance this game goes Over as opposed to the Padres winning. We know it sounds strange in light of recent results. The Padres didn’t do much scoring at Coors Field despite it being a hitters park. But Matt Moore is a pitcher they should do some damage against. Moore’s ERA this year for the Phillies is 6.05. His WHIP is 1.545. We probably shouldn’t be fooled by his last start, which saw him turn in six shutout innings. He’d given up six runs in back to back starts before that. Moore was very efficient in the last start, only needing 76 pitches to get through six innings. But we’re not likely to see that kind of efficiency today and that means more of the Phillies bullpen, a group which isn’t very good. Blake Snell has been one of San Diego’s most effective starters lately. But his season-long numbers (4.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP) suggest that isn’t likely to continue. The Over is on a 14-5 Run in Phillies’ road games and 16-7 run in Padres’ home games. These teams will both put a decent number of runs on the board Friday night. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-20-21 | Giants v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER The A’s were able to scratch and claw their way to a 5-4 win yesterday in Chicago. That ended a four-game losing streak. Now in come the Giants, the team with the best record in the majors, and they had Thursday off. While off a loss, the Giants are 9-2 their last 11 games. They already average nearly five full runs per contest and now they’ll get to substitute a DH in place of the pitcher in the batting order. So we should this game go Over the total. James Kaprielian, today’s starter for Oakland, has seen his previous three starts all go Over. Kaprielian has pitched better at home than on the road. However, the last time he faced a National League lineup, the results were poor. He gave up six runs in San Diego and that was without the designated hitter rule in play. Alex Wood has an ERA approaching 6.00 his last three starts. So we expect him to struggle as well. Wood has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four trips to the mound. The Over is on a 7-3 run for Oakland, at home, following a road trip of seven or more days. San Francisco is on a 26-12-1 Over run in interleague play. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-19-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE -1.5 Milwaukee is simply a better team than St. Louis. They have been all season. So a pair of two-run victories in this series shouldn’t be surprising to you. It was a low-scoring game Tuesday, 2-0, but we said to take the Over last night and thanks to the 10th inning that was a winner. The Brewers won 6-4. For the third and final game of the series, we are going with Milwaukee -1.5 on the run line. They are 74-47 this year, 42-20 on the road. Dominating the rest of the NL Central, they have a 40-19 division record. They are 14-1 in road games when the total is 8.0 to 8.5. Not only do the Brewers have the most road wins in baseball, they are winning on the road by an average of 1.7 runs/game. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.18 ERA plus a 0.91 WHIP, which has him among the very best pitchers in baseball this season. Jon Lester used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, but that was a long time ago. In 2021, Lester’s ERA is 5.32. He’s struggled since coming over from Washington. The Brewers have won eight of their last nine games. Seven of those wins have been by two or more runs. Play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-19-21 | Twins v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The red-hot Yankees, now in Wild Card position, look to win a seventh straight game on Thursday. They just swept Boston and have allowed all of 14 runs in the past six games. Now they face Minnesota, who is also hot. The Twins have won 9 of their last 13 games and four straight series. Three of those series were against first place teams. They put up eight runs yesterday in an 11-inning win over Cleveland. It was impressive that Minnesota was able to come back and win that game considering the Indians scored a run in each of the first five innings. We can’t trust Thursday’s starter John Gant going against the Yankees, can we? Gant has a 9.90 ERA and 1.80 WHIP over his previous three starts. This is his first start for the Twins after being traded from St. Louis. In his last 14 innings of work, Gant has allowed 18 runs. So the Yankees should score plenty tonight. But how many will Minnesota score? All three games vs. the Yankees earlier in the year went Over as have 10 of the last 12 meetings. So we think they’ll score enough off Jameson Taillon to help get this one Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-19-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILLIES -1.5 (RUN LINE) The Phillies have lost the first two games of this series with the Diamondbacks. That’s quite embarrassing considering the Diamondbacks have the National League’s worst record. Now that record has gotten somewhat better of late as they’ve won five of their last six games. But you’re still looking at a team that has lost more than two-thirds of its games. It wasn’t too long ago that the Phillies were the hottest team in baseball. They won eight in a row to open August and were in first place in the NL East. But since then they’ve lost six of eight games and now face a 3.5 game deficit in the division as it is the Braves that are surging. The key to today’s selection is that Zack Wheeler is going to be starting for Philadelphia. Wheeler leads all starters with 187 strikeouts and 162 innings pitched. With Jacob deGrom injured, Wheeler could be in line for the Cy Young. An Arizona team that is only 11-28 in day games should be no match for the right-hander, whose WHIP is sub-1.00 for the year. Even though he’s done well since returning from the injured list, Madison Bumgarner is not the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago for the Giants. He gave up a season-high nine hits in his last start. The Phillies will win here by at least two runs. Play on PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-19-21 | A's v. White Sox OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox can make it a four-game sweep with a win today. They lead the AL Central by 12 games, the largest lead in any division right now. They are one of only six teams with 70 wins and one of only five with a run differential greater than +130. So they are definitely sitting pretty. Can’t say the same for Oakland, whose four game losing streak has them on the edge of falling out of the Wild Card. Cole Irvin was supposed to start yesterday for the A’s, but was a late scratch. Irvin gave up five runs in his last start to a Texas team that is dead last in the AL in scoring. The White Sox average 5.0 runs/game and have scored 17 in the last three games. We like their chances of putting up a big number today. This Over then hinges on the A’s and if they can get the bats going. We think they can. Dylan Cease often does not make it through six innings for the White Sox and that could be a problem today as the bullpen was called in earlier than expected last night because of Lance Lynn’s ejection. The first three games have averaged only seven runs/contest, but this should be the highest scoring of the bunch. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-19-21 | Astros v. Royals OVER 7 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER It would truly be a shocking result if the Royals were to sweep this series. They’ve kept the Astros at bay, winning 7-6, 3-1 and 3-2 in the first three games. Houston (70-50) still leads the AL West by 2.5 games as they are lucky Oakland is also on a four-game losing streak. Kansas City (52-67) remains in last in the Central, although they do now have a winning record at home. Win or lose, you’ve got to think the Astros’ offense gets it going today. They are #1 in the majors in runs/game. Their scoring average on the road, 5.5 runs/game, is higher than it is at home. They will face Mike Minor Thursday. Minor isn’t very good; he has a 5.35 ERA in 24 starts. He also has a 4.29 ERA in 16 career appearances vs. the Astros. Over his last three starts, Minor has given up six home runs. Kansas City should score too though. Houston’s Luis Garcia has a 4.93 ERA on the road. His last start of July and first start of August were both on the road. Both times he allowed at least five runs and didn’t make it through the fifth inning. Our view is that today’s game will be more like the opener (7-6) than either of the last two games. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-18-21 | A's v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CWS -1.5 (RL) After winning “The Field of Dreams” game in thrilling fashion, the White Sox promptly dropped two actual home games to the Yankees. But they’ve quickly gotten back on track by beating Oakland each of the last two days. We had them Monday and that was a 5-2 victory. It was way easier yesterday as they took the game 9-0. With Lance Lynn set to go tonight, the AL Central leaders should move one step closer to a sweep (this is a four-game series) and we think they win this one by at least two runs. Lynn will handle the A’s lineup. He has a 6-2 record at home, a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He has a 6-1 TSR over his last seven starts, having permitted just one run in five of them. Oakland has dropped three straight. Don’t think Cole Irvin will be able to handle a White Sox lineup that is averaging 5.3 runs in games where they oppose a lefty starter. The White Sox are 41-22 at home this year. When they are -125 to -175 on the money, they are 21-7 in home games. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-18-21 | Brewers v. Cardinals OVER 7 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This total seems to have gotten a bit too low. Sure, the Brewers and Cardinals played to a 2-0 final last night and we’ve got two starting pitchers in good form set to go tonight. But Milwaukee, who now has 41 road wins, should have scored a lot more in yesterday’s game. They collected 14 hits on Tuesday. Scoring only two runs in a game where you have 14 hits is quite rare. The team went 3 for 15 when they had runners in scoring position. St. Louis wasn’t any better, going 0 for 5 in that situation. Some timely hitting would go a long way today and that’s what we expect. Jack Flaherty has a 5.21 ERA in his career vs. Milwaukee. So history says he will struggle in this spot. It was only three starts ago that Flaherty was charged with seven runs, four of them unearned, in a loss against the White Sox. The Brewers score 5.0 runs/game away from home, a big reason for their success there. As for Freddy Peralta, who starts tonight for the Brewers, there can be no denying what a great year he is having. But it won’t take much to send this one Over. The Cardinals scored 29 runs in the four games previous to yesterday’s loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-18-21 | Padres -142 v. Rockies | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego’s only path to the playoffs is the Wild Card and their season-long hold on that position is slipping. They’ve lost six of seven, all to losing teams. It was fortunate that the Reds also lost Tuesday night as the Padres lead for the 2nd WC is down to 1.5 games. Back to back losses to Colorado, on the heels of losing three of four at Arizona, is just not acceptable for a team trying to make the playoffs. The Padres have now dropped six straight at Coors Field where the Rockies obviously play much better than they do at home. But we’ll call for San Diego to “circle the wagons” Wednesday afternoon and avoid the sweep, just like they did Sunday in Arizona. We know it’s risky to back Jake Arrieta as he was just waived by a Cubs team that has lost 18 of its last 21 games. But he’ll be backed by a better offense here in San Diego. Key here is that Colorado has the weakest member of its starting rotation going today. That would be Chi Chi Gonzalez. Not only does he have a 6.04 ERA for the year, but he has a 9.00 ERA over his last three starts. He hasn’t pitched since July 23rd due to being on the COVID-19 list. In his previous five starts vs. the Padres, Gonzales is 0-2 with a 6.40 ERA. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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08-17-21 | Indians v. Twins -144 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Twins walked off for a third straight win last night. They beat Cleveland 5-4 in 10 innings. While winning took a little longer than expected, the Twins did outhit the Indians 14-8 in the game. Cleveland stayed in it due to the Twins committing four errors. We should see cleaner play in the field today behind Bailey Ober. Ober did not allow a run in 5.3 innings the last time we saw him. That was against the first place White Sox. In his last 20 innings of work, Ober has only allowed six runs and he has 21 strikeouts. His team is playing well right now. They’re on pace to win a fourth straight series and the last three were against the AL division leaders. Cleveland, who lost Eli Morgan’s last start 17-0, has won back to back games only once in August. Morgan goes for the first time since that debacle here. A rookie just like Ober, Morgan has a 6.52 ERA. He has just one win in 10 starts. The Twins have won six of the last eight games with Cleveland. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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08-17-21 | Orioles v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB -1.5 Tampa Bay won big last night, 9-2, and is very likely to do so again tonight. After dropping two of three to the Twins this past weekend, this series offers a shot at redemption. The Rays have been beating up on the Orioles all year, as you’d expect them to, winning 12 of the 13 season meetings. At this price, we’ve made the decision to lay the -1.5 on the run line. No fear here. Six of the Rays’ previous seven wins over the Orioles have been by more than one run. At the present time, Baltimore is playing as poorly as they have all year, which is really saying something. They are 0-12 their last 12 games and have been outscored 113-36. This isn’t even their longest losing streak this year! They are ill-equipped to handle the Rays lineup, allowing nine or more runs eight of the 13 times they faced them. Tampa has outscored them 103-51 on the year. Not even John Means, Baltimore’s best pitcher, is enough to stem the tide here. Means already lost to the Rays earlier in the month in what turned out to be a 10-6 game. He followed that by serving up three home runs to Detroit. Tampa Bay homered five times yesterday and has scored at least eight runs in 8 of the last 10 games. Should be an easy night for Rasmussen, no matter how long he’s asked to go. Play on TAMPA BAY -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-17-21 | Cubs v. Reds -161 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -161 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCY Once the reality of a losing season sets in, it is not uncommon for a team to be a “seller” at the trade deadline. That’s precisely what the Cubs were last month. That mentality obviously has an adverse effect on morale. But the Cubs’ decline has been so severe that it’s downright shameful. Yesterday saw them lose a 12th consecutive game as they fell to 2-18 since July 27th. Monday’s loss came by a score of 14-5. It was the fourth time in the past six games that Cubs pitching allowed double digit runs. The Reds are really having their way with the Cubs as they are 10-4 against them in the 2021 season, 6-1 when at home. The Cubs are a horrid 3-16 as road underdogs of +125 to +175. They face Gutierrez tonight. Gutierrez has won four straight starts for the Reds. One of those was vs. the Cubs. He’s got a 1.42 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in the last three. The Reds are putting up 5.7 runs per game at home. That’s more than everybody except Colorado. We expect them to score plenty of runs this evening off Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks. He just got roughed up for nine runs in his last start. The Reds have gone 14-6 in their last 20 games and are just 1.5 games back of the Wild Card. Play on CINCINNATI AAA |
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08-16-21 | Padres -124 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SD By winning Sunday, San Diego avoided what would have been a complete embarrassment. That embarrassment would have been getting swept by Arizona, the team with the worst record in the majors. The Padres’ grip on the second Wild Card spot has gotten weaker in recent weeks. Their lead is down to 2.5 games over the Reds. They aren’t catching the Dodgers or Giants. So it’s really important that they take this series with Colorado seriously. The Padres are just 17-15 vs. the Rockies and Diamondbacks this year. If they don’t make the playoffs, it will be because they didn’t dominate the two bad teams in their division. We think they will win Monday. Fernando Tatis is back in the lineup. He returned Sunday and hit two home runs. Ryan Weathers will start tonight’s game. It’s been a rough last three starts for him but he still has a 2.28 ERA on the road. Colorado is off a 1-5 road trip. While they are a lot better at home, they are 26-41 off a loss. Antonio Senzatela has not looked the same since coming off the injured list as he’s given up seven runs in 10.6 innings. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA |
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08-16-21 | Astros -150 v. Royals | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -150 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston had a four-game win streak snapped Sunday. They lost at the Angels 3-1, falling prey to a dialed in pitcher. That shouldn’t be the case here as they go up against Kansas City and Carlos Hernandez. The Astros still lead the AL West and are one of only five times with 70 wins this year. The Royals are in last place in their division after dropping four straight and 11 of their last 15. They just got swept by St. Louis and all three games were decided by five runs or more. While Hernandez has pitched well recently, here he’ll be facing the highest scoring team in the majors. Houston averages 5.6 runs/contest on the road. The Royals bullpen had to work overtime yesterday (7.6 innings), so that’s another problem. Jake Odorizzi may seem like a question mark. But he threw five scoreless innings in his last start for the Astros. Kansas City has scored only eight times in its last four games. This is a real mismatch where we are shocked the Astros’ odds of winning aren’t higher. They are on a 17-5 run as road favorites. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-16-21 | A's v. White Sox -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO There’s a good chance we see both these teams in the postseason. Chicago is pretty much a lock at this point as they hold a 10-game lead in the division. Oakland is second out West, 2.5 games behind Houston, but is safely in Wild Card position. The A’s had won 12 of 15 before a loss on Sunday. That loss came against the last place Rangers, a team that for whatever reason they do not dominate like they should. Chicago has lost two in a row after winning in the cornfields of Iowa. We think this is a really good price on the White Sox at home. Even after the two losses to the Yankees, the Sox record at Guaranteed Rate Field is 39-22. Over the last seven games, their pitching staff has held opposing hitters to a .197 average. They’ve allowed a .215 average at home for the season. Monday’s starter Dallas Keuchel has an 8-3 TSR at home. This is a revenge series for the White Sox as well. They were eliminated from last year’s playoffs by Oakland. That three game series is the only time these teams have met since 2019. Has Frankie Montas pitched well for the A’s in 2021? Yes. But he’s faced some weak lineups recently (Cleveland twice and Seattle). Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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08-15-21 | Dodgers v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 14-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UNDER The game went 10 innings last night, but there were still only three runs scored on eight hits. The Dodgers now can sweep the Mets Sunday night on ESPN. It’s been a pair of one-run victories for Los Angeles so far, 6-5 and 2-1. We think tonight’s game - in terms of number of runs scored - will mirror what happened Saturday. Mainly because we have an outstanding pitching matchup. Max Scherzer will make his third start for the Dodgers since being traded from Washington. Scherzer was limited to 3.3 innings in his last start because of rain. He didn’t give up any runs though. That was after keeping Houston to two runs in seven innings in his Dodgers debut. In 10.3 innings pitched for his new team, Scherzer has 16 strikeouts. This is someone with a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP for the season. Carlos Carrasco is the Mets starter for Sunday. This will be his fourth appearance since starting the year on the DL. Carrasco is definitely better than what he’s shown thus far in limited work. You also have to consider this game taking place at Citi Field. No park has been lower scoring in 2021. The Mets and their opponents have combined to average just 6.6 runs/game here. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-15-21 | Yankees v. White Sox -172 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -172 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CWS This has been a dramatic series so far. It began in Iowa on Thursday. In what was quite the spectacle, the White Sox walked off the “Field of Dreams” as 9-8 winners. The teams then got Friday off. Saturday it was the Yankees' turn to win in thrilling fashion as they prevailed 7-5 in 10 innings. Someone is gonna win this series on Sunday and we believe it will be the White Sox. Let’s start with the fact that Chicago has been an excellent home team in 2021. They are 39-21 at Guaranteed Rate Field despite Saturday’s loss. This includes a 21-5 record if they are -125 to -175 favorites. They have a clear edge over the Yankees in day games. The White Sox record in day games is 27-19. The Yankees are 16-26. The White Sox had more hits yesterday. They also have Lucas Giolito set to start Sunday. In four of his last five starts, Giolito has gone 6+ innings and allowed only one run. He went eight innings in Minnesota Monday and only gave up two hits. While we have touted Nestor Cortes previously, today’s starter for the Yankees struggled in his last appearance. He gave up five runs at Kansas City. They may have scored 15 runs in the last two games, but the Yankees’ offensive numbers - for the season - are not that great. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA |
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08-15-21 | Reds v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER So far, this series has been an exchange of 6-1 victories. Cincinnati drew first blood on Friday. Then Philadelphia paid them back on Saturday. With the Reds, there’s a big difference in how many total runs per game are scored when they are at home (11.0) vs. the road (8.8). The Phillies only put 4.2 runs/game at home. Today’s game could very well be more competitive than the previous two, but we believe it will again be low-scoring. Aaron Nola pitching for the home team should play a major role in today’s game staying Under. Nola has a 2.97 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. He threw four shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday. That was at home. Before that, Nola’s previous home start saw him finish one out shy of a complete game four-hitter (only allowed one run). Today Nola is opposed by Sonny Gray. Gray has been effective in two of his last three starts. The last one, he gave up just two runs and three hits. The Under has hit seven straight times when these teams play in Philadelphia. The Reds are 40-18-3 Under L61 games vs. the NL East. The Phillies are 7-0-1 Under their last eight games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-14-21 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 101 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER San Diego’s penchant for “playing down” to their level of competition reared its ugly head again last night as they fell 3-2 to Arizona. The Diamondbacks have won a league-low 37 times in 2021. But six of those wins have been at the Padres’ expense. That’s a really high percentage considering the Padres still have to be considered a top 10 team and figure to make the Wild Card Game. San Diego probably likes its chances tonight with Joe Musgrove starting. Musgrove’s last four starts have spanned 25 innings and he’s given up four runs. But what’s pretty shocking is how the Padres are just 12-10 in Musgrove starts. Ten times they’ve gone out and scored three runs or less in games he has started. So our call here is for the Under to hit. Arizona is simply not much of a threat to score many runs in this game. The wildcard is Tyler Gilbert, making his big league debut as a starter. San Diego has only scored five runs in the last three games. So look for Gilbert to surprise in this spot. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-14-21 | A's -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAK -1.5 Texas did beat Oakland last night, 8-6, but the Rangers are obviously a team that doesn’t do a whole heck of a lot of winning. Their 75 losses are the third most of any team. They’d lost the previous five games with the A’s before winning Friday. So calling for the A’s to bounce back Saturday doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. We’re confident enough to lay the -1.5 as this should be a blowout. Texas is 15-25 off a win this year. Oakland is 8-2 in August, a month that has been kind to them in years’ past as well. The last three Augusts have seen the A’s put together a 44-19 record. They’d just won 17-0 in Cleveland on Thursday. There was some rare sloppy play in the field yesterday as the A’s committed three errors. Going into that game, they’d committed the fewest errors in the majors. Errors were what helped Texas score three times in the top of the first. That was more runs than the Rangers had scored in the previous two games combined. They rank last in the American League in runs scored. Jordan Lyles has won just 5 of his 22 starts for Texas this year. The last five have all been losses for the team and in three of the five games, Lyles has allowed six runs. One of those three was against the A’s. Contrast that to James Kaprielian. When the Oakland righty went against Lyles on 8/8, he gave up only two runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-13-21 | Cardinals v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The only interleague series on tap for this weekend is the “I-70” rivalry between the Cardinals and Royals. It takes place in Kansas City, so the Cardinals will be forced to use the designated hitter. Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that will necessarily lead to an increase in scoring, however. When the Cardinals came to Kauffman Stadium last year, they averaged just 3.0 runs/contest. They are the 4th lowest scoring team from the National League. Offensively, Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the American League. We like the fact Jack Flaherty is going to start today for St. Louis. He is 3-0 all-time vs. the Royals. In those three starts, he has a 0.95 ERA. He didn’t pitch in last week’s series where the Cardinals held the Royals to just two runs in two of three games. The Royals also scored two runs yesterday. St. Louis’ only loss in its last six games was the finale of the last series with KC, a game that had a long rain delay. They just swept the Pirates and allowed one run in the first two games of that three-game series. All we need is Mike Minor to just do his job as the Royals starter. His last four starts have all gone Under. None of the games have had more than seven runs scored. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-13-21 | Reds v. Phillies -164 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -164 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA Two teams looking to make late season surges will meet this weekend in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won 9 of their last 11 games to move into first place in the NL East. They beat the Dodgers 2-1 yesterday and avoided being swept at home. Cincinnati had also been rolling prior to its last series. Like the Phillies, a win yesterday allowed them to avoid getting swept. They won big, 12-3 over Atlanta. The Reds are 7-4 in August. But four of those seven wins were against Pittsburgh, who is very bad. Tyler Mahle has pitched well on the road this season. But he hasn’t pitched as well as the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler. After tossing a complete-game shutout in his last start, Wheeler’s ERA and WHIP are down to 2.42 and 0.994. Wheeler’s 11 strikeouts against the Mets on Sunday were his most in any start since June. He has made four starts against the Reds in his career, never lost and never given up a home run. As for Mahle, two previous starts vs. Philadelphia has resulted in a 7.50 ERA. The Phillies are 35-23 at home and as hot as any team in baseball right now. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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08-12-21 | Rockies v. Giants -168 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF Bettors quickly jumped on the Giants this morning and we were one of them. How could you not? The Rockies are just terrible on the road. A 13-42 record is what they have away from Coors Field this season. That’s after losing twice in Houston this week. Colorado scored just one time in those two games. They have not faced San Francisco since early May. Since then, these teams' respective seasons have gone in very different directions. The Giants (73-41) have the best record in baseball. They have won four in a row and are 37-17 at home. Over the past seven games, the Giants have scored five or more runs six times. But a bigger reason for their success is the fact that only two teams (Dodgers, Brewers) have allowed fewer runs this season. Logan Webb is Thursday’s starting pitcher. He has a 6-0 TSR at home. In his last nine starts, Webb has never given up more than two runs. The Giants are 8-1 in those games. He’s gone exactly six innings his last three times out and faced the Dodgers, Astros and Brewers. Colorado has its best pitcher going today in Marquez, but he only has a 3-6 TSR on the road and has struggled in his career vs. the Giants (6.68 ERA). Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-12-21 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It seems like you can always count on the Pirates not to score many runs. Over the course of a seven-game losing streak, they have put up 12 runs total. Twice they’ve been shutout. One of those two times was yesterday, 4-0 by the Cardinals. Pittsburgh was already the lowest scoring team in baseball prior to the losing streak. Now the gap between them and the second lowest scoring team has gotten even more severe. Texas and the Mets are the only teams that haven't put up at least 50 more runs than the Pirates this year. So when playing the total with this team, Under has to be your natural reaction. They have just three hits in this series with the Cardinals! Wade LeBlanc, a lefty that has put up good numbers of late for St. Louis, is who they will face today. LeBlanc has a 2.94 ERA his last seven starts and is coming off a hard-luck no decision against Atlanta. He allowed only two runs and three hits in six innings, a game the Cardinals ultimately lost 8-4. The Cardinals aren’t all that high scoring either. They are the NL’s third lowest scoring team. It’s been a rough ride of late for the Pirates JT Brubaker. However, he did pitch very well in his last home start, giving up just one run and three hits. Throw in the fact this is a day game and you’ve gotta go Under. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-11-21 | Dodgers -133 v. Phillies | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers’ ended the Phillies’ eight-game win streak last night with a convincing 5-0 victory. There was a rain delay, which resulted in both starters leaving, but our read is that this is a clear step up in class for Philadelphia after sweeping the Nationals and Mets. The home team is banking on tonight’s starter Kyle Gibson carrying the load. But he’s lost both previous times he’s faced the Dodgers. His ERA in the two starts is 7.71. Gibson’s first two starts for the Phillies were against light-hitting teams. The Dodgers have scored the most runs in the National League. The Dodgers also have the edge in the bullpen. Unless it’s a bad start from David Price, there’s no reason they shouldn’t win for a fourth straight time. There’s no reason to expect a bad start from Price, although the Dodgers have lost the last six times he’s started. Look for that streak to end though as he has a 3.33 ERA vs. the Phillies. Price has pitched better than his record shows. He has a 1.15 WHIP. The Dodgers are 76-36 following a win. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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08-11-21 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER It’s been a couple Overs to start this series. San Diego has won the two games by scores of 8-3 and 6-5. Miami has lost five in a row overall. In all five losses, the Over has hit. The Over is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine games. The Over is 8-1-1 in the Padres' last 10 games. So it does seem reasonable to expect another 11-run game. Neither of the two starters for today’s game have been very good of late either. But we have some faith in Miami’s Sandy Alcantara to bounce back from an absolutely hideous showing at Colorado. He was charged with 10 runs. Prior to that, he’d allowed zero runs in seven innings against the Yankees. Fernando Tatis will again not be on the Padres’ lineup card. Alcantara has far more good starts than bad ones this year. The Under is 14-7 in all Alcantara starts. But the thing is, he likely can’t count on much run support today. Miami is not a team that scores a ton on the road. Visitors to Petco Park only average 3.7 runs/contest. Ryan Weathers threw four shutout innings for the Padres against the Marlins just last month. His last two outings didn’t go well, but he’s not facing those teams today. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-10-21 | Rockies v. Astros -175 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has lost six of nine. Going 2-3 on the road against the Dodgers and Giants wasn’t what they were looking for, but it’s at least understandable. Losing three of four at home to Minnesota, something they did over the weekend, is less so. The Astros lead in the AL West is down to two games, so they can’t afford to “mess around” the next two days when Colorado comes to town. The Rockies are off a three-game sweep of Miami. But that came at home. The team’s record on the road this year is 13-40. That’s the second worst win percentage on the road among all 30 teams. Only division mate Arizona is worse. They have won just one road series all year and that came right before the All Star Break. We look at this as a “buy low” spot with Houston. Odorizzi has struggled of late, but look at that as a byproduct of some of the teams he’s faced. He had to pitch on the road against the White Sox and Dodgers. In between those losses, he was on the mound for wins over Seattle and Texas, who are bad teams like Colorado. Jon Gray, as you’d expect, has a 2-7 TSR on the road for the Rockies. The Astros lost two games at Coors Field back in April. So they are out for revenge tonight. Play on HOUSTON AAA |
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08-10-21 | Rays v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON This is a critical series in the AL East. Tampa Bay leads the division right now with a 68-44 record. Boston is four games back with both New York and Toronto hot on their heels. The AL East is the only division to currently have four teams with positive run differentials. At least two teams will make the playoffs. Boston has been in first or second most of the year, but has lost 9 of its last 12 games. Three of those losses were in Tampa. But Tuesday marks a return to Fenway after playing 10 straight on the road. The Red Sox sport a 33-22 home record. Eduardo Rodriguez, who did not allow any runs in his last start and had 10 strikeouts, starts for them tonight. The 10 strikeouts were a season-high for Rodriguez. It came in one of the Red Sox three wins on the road trip. The Rays have won 13 of 18 and four straight. But they also got to play the Orioles over the weekend. Luis Patino has made three previous starts on the road. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in those three starts. We look for a reversal of recent fortunes with these two teams tonight. The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 13 series openers. Play on BOSTON AAA |
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08-10-21 | Dodgers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Coming off last year’s World Series win, the Dodgers have once again been one of the best teams this year. But the Phillies are the hottest team in August with a perfect 8-0 mark. These teams collide for three games starting Tuesday. We like the opener to go Over the total. The Dodgers are the highest scoring National League team. So we know we can count on them for five or more runs. They average 5.4 per game on the road and have put up an average of 6.3 the last seven games overall. Philadelphia - even after a low-scoring series with the Mets where every game went Under - have scored 55 runs during their win streak. That’s an average of nearly seven runs/game. We know Max Scherzer is a very good starting pitcher and obviously the Dodgers do too (why they traded for him!) but four of his last five starts have gone Over including his Dodgers debut. He’s allowed at least one homer in all five starts. Aaron Nola has seen four of his last six starts go Over. The last one saw him give up five runs. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-09-21 | Marlins v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Yesterday’s 2-0 win for the Padres was the lowest scoring game they’ve been involved in since the second half of the season began. There had been a couple times they’d been held to one run, but two total runs in the game was a new low. You would think they figure to do well in this home series against Miami. But the Padres do have a penchant for dropping games to bad teams. They split a four game series with the Marlins a couple weeks ago. We are confident in Joe Musgrove getting the job done, however. In his previous three starts, Musgrove has allowed only three runs in 19 innings. His ERA and WHIP for the year currently stand at 3.07 and 1.01. The numbers get even better at home. But his team start record of 11-10 shows Musgrove doesn’t always get run support. The Marlins’ pitching staff is top six in the National League for least amount of runs allowed. (San Diego is 5th). Thompson is making his 10th start for the Marlins tonight. The Under is 7-2 with him on the mound so far. He has a 2.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, very comparable numbers to the more heralded Musgrove. After being swept in Colorado over the weekend, Miami is going to be desperate for a win here. The problem is they only score 3.9 runs/game. This is going to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-08-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER We are looking to avenge one of the two losses we’ve suffered over the last five days (12-2 overall run). We had the Over in the first game between the Mets and Phillies, which saw the latter win 4-2 to take over first place in the NL East. In that game, the Mets were 1 for 8 with runners in scoring position. They were no better in that situation last night, going 0 for 5, and they didn’t even score a run until the ninth inning. It was a 5-3 loss this time. The Phillies have won seven in a row. They scored four of their runs in one big inning last night. We’d seen plenty of offense from them before this series got underway as they had scored 43 runs in five games. We think it is likely that they will have their highest scoring effort of this series today. They face Taijuan Walker, whose last six starts have all gone Over for the Mets. The last four have seen Walker pitch poorly. He’s given up 21 runs in his last 15 innings. Not good. For the Phillies, Zack Wheeler has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts. The teams are somewhat due to play a high-scoring game. Mets’ road games are definitely higher scoring than their home games. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-08-21 | Mariners v. Yankees UNDER 9 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 102 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER One could make the argument that - with five one-run losses over the last week - the Mariners have gotten a taste of their own medicine. Prior to those five losses, the team had been 23-8 in one-run games, which is some pretty darn good fortune. But the Mariners have had no luck this weekend in Yankees Stadium where they’ve lost the first three games of the series. Yesterday’s 5-4 loss was probably the most painful as they blew a 4-1 lead. The Yankees scored the game-winning run on a double play. Earlier in the inning, they capitalized on a three-base error. Winners of 10 of their last 12 games, the Yankees are playing their best baseball of the season right now. The odds have curiously swung towards Seattle for Sunday, so we will stay away from rendering a decision on who is going to win. But look for it to be a clean sweep with the Under in this series. The first three games have seen only eight, five and nine runs scored. Seattle has the lowest batting average in the majors while New York has scored the fourth fewest number of runs in the American League. Only the three last place teams have scored less. Kikuchi is a really solid starter for the Mariners. Of the two runs he allowed in his last start, only one was “earned.” Gil’s first career start for the Yankees couldn’t have gone much better. He didn’t allow a run in six innings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER We also like this Tigers-Indians matchup to stay Under the total. We already went through Cleveland’s head to head domination of Detroit In the analysis for the pick on the side. Also know that the Tigers have scored no more than three runs six of the last 10 times they’ve faced Cleveland. The Tigers’ last eight games have all stayed Under with no more than nine combined runs scored in any of them. As we stated in the other writeup, Cleveland rookie Eli Morgan is likely to continue a strong stretch of starts today. But the Indians probably won’t match their scoring from yesterday. They only average 3.8 runs/contest when facing a left-handed starter. Detroit’s Tyler Alexander is a lefty. We think he can limit the damage somewhat, though the Indians will still win this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Tigers v. Indians -148 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland beat Detroit 6-1 last night. They’ve really had the Tigers number whether you are talking about this year (9-5 head to head record), the last two years (16-8) or the last three years (34-9). The Tigers have really struggled to win at Progressive Field where they are 4-16 since the start of the 2019 season. They didn’t even score until the ninth inning of yesterday’s game as Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill turned in the best start of his career. Cleveland will look to make it two in a row behind rookie Eli Morgan, who had nine strikeouts in six innings his last start. Morgan has given up no more than three runs in each of his last four starts. What makes that all the more impressive is he faced Houston twice, Toronto and Oakland. Those are all good teams. Houston averages almost 6.0 runs/game. Toronto averages the most runs/game at home in the entire league. Play on CLEVELAND AAA |
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08-07-21 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 10.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Reds pummelled the Pirates last night, winning 10-0. It was 7-0 after the first innings. Cincinnati is 7-1 vs. Pittsburgh this year, 5-0 at home. The first two games of this series have seen 11 and 10 runs scored. We should be in for another high-scoring affair Saturday night. Neither starter is anything to write home about. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Keller has been getting shelled recently. He’s allowed four runs in back to back starts. Neither start went more than five innings. Cincinnati’s Gutierrez has a 7.17 ERA at home. Truthfully, none of the Reds starters have done very well at Great American Ballpark this year. Opponents have averaged 5.5 runs/contest here. So the Pirates, weak as they may be offensively, should at least put SOME runs on the board Saturday. Of course, the Reds will too. They average the same number of runs/contest that they allow at home. In eight games vs. the Pirates this year, the Reds have scored 68 times. That includes 16 runs in the first two innings of the last two games. In their last 10 games, the Reds have scored six or more runs eight different times. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-07-21 | Twins v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOU -1.5 The Astros lost to the Twins last night, 5-4. The game went 11 innings and saw your AL West leaders blow a 3-0 lead. They are too good to let that happen again, so we will take them here, not just to win but to win by two or more runs. The run line looks like a great value in this situation as Houston is on a three-game losing streak. There have been only three times this season where the Astros have had a losing streak of more than three games. This is the first three-game losing streak since prior to the All Star Break. Luis Garcia has a 2.15 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at home. He can easily handle this Twins lineup. We won’t say the same for Twins starter Michael Pineda and the Astros lineup though. In his last seven starts, Pineda has a 5.67 ERA and .892 OPS allowed. Houston has scored more runs than every other team in 2021. Play on HOUSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-06-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
full analysis to follow |
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08-06-21 | Rangers v. A's -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAK -1.5 (RUN LINE) Oakland is 61-48 on the season. If the regular season ended today, they’d be the second Wild Card team in the American League. They trail Houston by four games in the West Division, so that’s also still in play. After coming from behind to stun San Diego on Wednesday, the A’s have won five of their last seven games. They have a real nice scheduling advantage for today’s game vs. Texas. Because it was a short two-game interleague series vs. San Diego, the A’s had both Monday and Thursday off. The Rangers have not had an off-day in over a week. They lost 5-0 yesterday afternoon to the Angels, at home, a game where we had the Under. As we talked about, this team just can’t hit. They are last or second to last in each of the four key offensive categories. The last week has seen them hit .207. Mike Foltynewicz being the starter Friday makes things even less promising. He is 2-10 with a 6.00 ERA. Chris Bassitt is a much better option for Oakland. He is 11-3 with a 3.28 ERA. Against Texas, Bassitt is 3-0. He’s allowed two runs and 12 hits in 21 innings. It’s strange that the A’s are 5-5 head to head vs. the Rangers. But they should have no problem winning this game by multiple runs. Play on OAKLAND -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-06-21 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER This is a battle for first place in the NL East. The Mets have held the top spot for a long time now, but their lead is now down to a half game. The Phillies swept their last series, winning all four games in Washington. The Mets weren’t nearly as successful in Miami where they lost two of three. Philadelphia did have to come from behind yesterday, scoring four runs in the top of the ninth, but they’ll take a win anyway they can get it. They’ve won five in a row now and all five of those games also went Over. The Mets had a three-game Over run stopped yesterday in a 4-2 loss where they left 15 runners on base. A big key here is how Mets’ road games tend to see a lot more scoring than their home games. It’s a difference of 2.8 more runs/game on the road. The Phillies have scored 43 runs during their five-game win streak. So we’ve got no worries with them. A pitching matchup of Stroman vs. Gibson might give you some pause about betting the Over here, but Stroman did allow four runs in his most recent start. Gibson is making his second start since coming over from Texas and the National League remains an unfamiliar scene. The two previous times Gibson has faced the Mets have resulted in a 6.75 ERA. The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Philadelphia. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-05-21 | Mariners v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYY -1.5 There are a lot of big favorites on tonight’s MLB card. You might be caught off guard by the fact that the Yankees are one of them. They are facing a Seattle team that has a very similar record. But the Mariners are frauds and we really like this Nestor Cortes. The Yankees margin of victory from the past two days is 19 runs. Now we know those wins came against Baltimore. But Seattle isn’t a team that deserves to be over .500. They’ve allowed 49 more runs than they have scored this season. The Mariners’ last three losses have all been by one run, but tonight is a situation where they figure to get blown out. Cortes, who is the Yankees starter for tonight, is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. He was originally going to start Tuesday’s game vs. the Orioles, but the team opted to go with Luis Gill and still won 13-1. Now Cortes has had more than a full week of rest in between starts. The Yankees are two games back of the Wild Card and one game in front of the Mariners. So this series is pretty huge. The degree to which they are favored is fairly telling. We believe they’ll win this game by two or more runs, making the run line a great option. Tyler Anderson has a 3-7 team start record on the road for Seattle. His last two starts have been losses at Arizona and Texas, two of the worst teams in baseball. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-05-21 | Angels v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER When Texas won the first game of this series, they found themselves on a three-game win streak. That was their longest win streak in over a month and just the fifth win streak of that length all season. So a return to poor form was all but assured and wouldn’t you know - the Rangers have lost two straight to the Angels. In doing so, they’ve scored only four runs. They lost 11-3 on Tuesday while last night was a lot closer at 2-1. This team just can’t hit. They came into yesterday with a .214 batting average over the last week. In addition to being the lowest scoring team in the American League, the Rangers are either last or next to last in batting average, OPS, OBP and slugging. So don’t worry about them scoring many runs in today’s matinee. Angels starter Dylan Bundy has pitched well vs. Texas in his career. He’s made 10 appearances against them and gone 5-2 with a 3.51 ERA. But the road team hasn’t done much scoring as of late either. In six of the last seven games, Los Angeles has not scored more than three runs. Five times they’ve scored two or less. Spencer Howard is making his Rangers debut today after being traded over from the Phillies. Howard was the Phillies’ #1 pitching prospect at the start of this season. Given how little the Angels have been scoring as of late (save for Tuesday), Howard should do fine here. The Angels are 10-1 Under in their past 11 road games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Astros and Dodgers are two of baseball's best. They are also the two highest scoring teams. Houston averages 5.5 runs/game. Los Angeles averages 5.2. Now last night’s game was low-scoring, a 3-0 win by the Astros. But you should expect something different tonight. Though they are being forced to send the pitcher up to bat here, the Astros did just fine under the same circumstances in their last series. Facing San Francisco, who has permitted the least number of runs in MLB in 2021, they still scored an average of six runs/game. They average 5.8/game on the road, which is #1 in baseball. The Dodgers scored 13 times in a win Sunday over Arizona. So you should expect them to bounce back from just their fourth shutout loss of the season. Max Scherzer is making his Dodgers’ debut tonight. It will be interesting to see if there is an adjustment period. He arrives in LA with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts. Even worse is Astros’ starter Jake Odorizzi as he has a 6.75 ERA his last three starts. Odorizzi’s last three starts have all gone Over. The Over is 35-17-5 when the Dodgers are coming off a loss. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-04-21 | Twins v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Twins and Reds will wrap up this very brief two-game series in an early afternoon affair. Last night saw the visitors prevail 7-5 as Jorge Polanco delivered a three-run homer in the top of the ninth. Minnesota, despite not playing with a DH, probably should have scored even more runs. But they were only 3 for 15 with runners in scoring position in the game. Still, the Over hit and high-scoring games at Great American Ballpark are nothing new. On average, Reds’ home games see 11.0 runs scored. They score 5.4 runs/contest themselves while giving up 5.6. No other park sees a higher average of runs/game scored, not even Coors Field. We look for the deluge of runs to continue on Getaway Day. Luis Castillo has engineered a remarkable turnaround for the Reds with a 1.95 ERA since June 1st. He had started the 2021 season with a 1-10 team start record. But two career starts vs. the Reds have brought Castillo a 16.20 ERA. Don’t be surprised if the Twins get to him. Starting here for the Twins will be Charlie Barnes. It’s just his second career big league start. The Over is 63-39-5 in all Twins’ games this year. That’s the highest Over percentage in baseball. Cincinnati isn’t far behind, in fifth place. The Over is 33-17-3 in Twins’ road games and 29-10-1 if they are the underdog, which is the case this afternoon. Six of their last seven games have gone Over. Play on OVER AAA |
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08-03-21 | Braves -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The good news for Atlanta is that they have not lost back to back games since the All Star Break. The bad news is that they also have not won back to back games since the All Star Break. For the sake of Tuesday, they hope the pattern of alternating wins and losses (now over the course of 17 games) continues as they are off a loss heading into St. Louis. The Cardinals may be at home, but the Braves are favored in this one as they try to move within a game of .500. The Braves have the NL East’s best run differential, which is something worth mentioning. They are only 3.5 games out of first place. St. Louis is very much in “also-ran” status in the Central, trailing Milwaukee by 10 games. The Cardinals may have a better than .500 record (56-52), but they have a -37 run differential. Compare that to Atlanta, whose run differential is +49. The Braves are the better team, which is why they are favored, and Max Fried is looking to stay unbeaten for his career against St. Louis. Earlier in 2021, Fried allowed just one run, two hits and two walks in a 9-1 win over the Cardinals. He has a 0.65 ERA in three games against them. Jon Lester will be making his St. Louis debut on Tuesday. The problem is he’s lasted six innings just three times this season and he lost to Baltimore in his final start for the Nationals. The Braves are one of five NL teams to have scored 500 runs this year. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
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08-03-21 | Royals v. White Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 9* on CHICAGO -1.5 Chicago is one of the top teams in the American League and all of MLB. But last week they went to Kansas City and lost three of four. That shouldn’t happen when you’re a first place team facing a team fighting to get out of last place. But now the White Sox get to be the hosts and they should be rather rude. The Sox road record isn’t very good, but at home they are 37-18. That’s more home victories than every other team. We will lay the -1.5 just to play them Tuesday in what should be an easy series-opening victory. The Royals got swept this past weekend. They scored only five runs at Toronto and at one point were blanked for 17 consecutive innings. The Royals have lost two-thirds of their road games and when on a losing streak of three or more games, things get really bad. Off three or more straight losses, they are 5-21 in 2021. With an 8.19 road ERA, Kris Bubic gives us even less confidence in KC than usual today. Dylan Cease has a 7-3 home team start record for the White Sox. It’s just hard to see the home side not rolling in this one. Play on CHICAGO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-03-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NY -1.5 Gerrit Cole was supposed to start on Tuesday for the Yankees. But he has COVID-19 and thus he’s going to miss some time. That wasn’t the only bad news for the Yankees yesterday. They also lost 7-1 to the Orioles. That simply can’t happen if they hope to be a player in this Wild Card race. New York is three games back of Oakland right now and had won five of six prior to Monday’s loss. The team did not “stand pat” at the deadline, adding both Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo to a lineup that has put up the second fewest number of runs in the American League. Unfortunately, the Yankees decided to go 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position Monday night. Nestor Cortes Jr will be the one starting in place of Cole. If you’re not familiar with him, he’s made three starts and the team has won all of them. Over 13 innings, Cortes has permitted just two runs and seven hits. Baltimore is 7-3 its last 10 games, but still buried in last place in the division with a 38-67 record. They are a horrible road team that has gone 3-13 its last 16 games at Yankees Stadium. Alexander Wells will start this game for them. In two previous appearances, Wells has a 5.91 ERA. The idea of the Orioles winning two straight games seems ludicrous, so we’ll lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play on NY YANKEES -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA |
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08-02-21 | Giants -180 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN FRANCISCO San Francisco is 9-1 against Arizona this season. That’s what you’d expect from the team who has the best record in baseball playing the team with the worst record in baseball. But also, the last two seasons have seen the Giants go 17-3 vs. the Diamondbacks. So they’ve got their number. The lone loss this year occurred on July 1st. After that, the Giants won the final three games of that series by outscoring the D’backs 22-11. The Giants’ last two series were against Houston and the Dodgers, two of the top teams in baseball. They won two of three games in each series. To say this is a step down in class would be putting it mildly. Arizona is 40 games below .500. They are -31.9 units. The Giants are +23.4 units by the way, making them the best team to bet on. So it doesn’t matter if it’s the actual field or at the betting window -- these teams are miles apart. For Arizona to even have a chance against the Giants, they would need a favorable starting pitching matchup. They do not today. Anthony DeSclafani has a 14-7 team start record for the Giants, thanks to a 3.10 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has pitched better on the road this year. Arizona’s Taylor Widener has allowed five runs in consecutive starts, which were against Pittsburgh and Texas, two last place teams. This is the definition of a “mismatch.” Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA |
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08-02-21 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER These teams split a four-game series last week. The two games that the Phillies won also went Over. The two games the Nationals won both stayed Under. Washington followed that up by winning two of three from the Cubs with 7, 9 and 11 total runs being scored in those games. The Phillies followed up by losing two of three to the Pirates. They did score 15 runs in a win Sunday. But that was after scoring just two runs in the two previous games. The two starters for Monday have a combined one start between them in 2021. It comes from Washington’s Josiah Gray and that one start wasn’t even with his current team. Gray was just acquired from the Dodgers in a trade. He allowed two runs in four innings last week in what was his only start for his former team. He also made one relief appearance five days earlier. Gray is now the top pitching prospect in the Nationals organization. They must like him because he came over in the Scherzer/Turner deal. We believe he will pitch well tonight. Ranger Suarez is making his first start since 2018 for the Phillies. He’d recently been serving as the team’s closer. He’s made 27 appearances this year and has given up just nine runs (four of them unearned) and 21 hits. The Under is on a 21-10-3 run when these NL East teams meet. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-01-21 | A's v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER To say runs have been “scarce” in this series would be an understatement. The A’s and Angels have played three games this weekend. A grand total of seven runs have been scored between them. The first six all came from Oakland as they won 4-0 on Thursday and 2-0 on Friday. Then the scoring decreased to the lowest point possible with the Angels winning 1-0 yesterday. Will scoring go up a bit today? Most likely. But we still don’t see more than nine runs being scored in this game. There is an “unknown factor” on the mound Sunday as Reid Detmers makes his major league debut for Los Angeles and Daulton Jefferies makes only his second career big league start for Oakland. Jefferies prior start at this level came last year. He got the call up from Triple A Las Vegas due to an injury to James Kaprielian. The Angels scored only two runs on A’s pitching in five July meetings. Oakland scored 16 runs in those five games, which sounds like a lot compared to what LA did, but it’s really not that much. Detmers looked good in both Double-A and Triple-A this year and has improved his fastball velocity. He had 106 strikeouts in 60 innings. The Under is 6-0 in the A’s last six Sunday games. Play on UNDER AAA |
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08-01-21 | Twins v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST. LOUIS This rematch of the 1987 World Series has seen each team post a win. The Cardinals struck first, winning Friday’s game by a score of 5-1. But then it was the Twins’ turn on Saturday as they prevailed by an even greater margin (8-1). We like the idea of taking a home team off an embarrassing loss as long as they’re not drastically outclassed in terms of talent. That’s definitely not the case here as Minnesota has been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments in 2021. The Twins are down -29.6 units (2nd worst) and in last place in the American League Central. St. Louis won’t be going to the playoffs either but at least they can claim a .500 record. They’d also won 8 of their previous 12 games going into yesterday. There are only four teams Adam Wainwright has never beaten in his 15+ year big league career. Minnesota is one of the four. Wainwright can check them off the list today and he comes in having pitched pretty well of late. His last two starts both went seven innings and he allowed only three runs total. He also has a 2.70 ERA and 0.96 WHIP at home. The Twins are not a good road team (19-31) and were big sellers at the trade deadline. Michael Pineda’s last start was the first time he lasted six innings since May. The Twins did score eight times Saturday, but remember they are without a designated hitter, making their lineup weaker than usual. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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07-31-21 | Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Mets’ home games have been REALLY low scoring in 2021. You’re looking at just 6.2 total runs being scored per contest. Last night was a little higher scoring than usual though as the Reds spoiled the season debut of Carlos Carrasco. Much of the way it looked like your typical game at Citi Field as the Reds took a 3-1 lead into the ninth. But then the scoring doubled in the final inning and the game ended up 6-2. Joey Votto has homered in seven straight games for Cincinnati. The Reds are averaging 6.3 runs over their last seven games and have scored at least five times in eight straight games. Rich Hill, recently acquired in a trade with Tampa Bay, will be making his second start as a Met on Saturday. The first went okay as he permitted three runs in five innings. The Mets won the game 5-4, which would be enough runs to cash an Over today. The Reds, whose pitching is normally not good, will send out Wade Miley. Don’t be fooled by his ERA as he’s actually given up 21 hits in his last three starts as well as 10 walks. None of the Reds last six games have stayed Under (two have pushed). Play on OVER AAA |
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07-31-21 | Phillies -155 v. Pirates | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies ought to be ashamed of themselves for losing 7-0 to the Pirates last night. Even in Pittsburgh, the Bucs are just 22-29 this year and they came into this series having lost 8 of their last 10 overall. In their last series, which was here in PNC Park and against Milwaukee, they got shut out twice and were outscored 28-3 over three games. The Phillies may not have the pitching the Brewers do, but the Pirates are the lowest scoring team in baseball by a pretty wide margin. The home team scoring seven times wasn’t the only thing surprising about last night, however. Their pitching also held the Phillies to just one hit. Look for the script to be reversed on Saturday. Aaron Nola, off maybe his best start of 2021, should handle the Pirates’ feeble lineup. Nola was just one out shy of a complete game on Sunday as he kept Atlanta to one run. He has 45 strikeouts in his past five starts, which have spanned 30 innings. That’s a good rate. Then you’ve got JT Brubaker going for the Pirates and there aren't many nice things we can say about him. Brubaker has lost six straight decisions and has an 0-8 TSR his last eight starts. He has an 8.52 ERA his last three starts and he’s allowed 10 home runs in the last five. The last five times that the Phillies have scored two runs or less, they have come back to win the next game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA |
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07-31-21 | A's -132 v. Angels | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -132 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND The A’s look to make it three straight wins over the Angels and four straight wins overall this afternoon in Anaheim. The first two wins of this series have both been shutouts, 4-0 and then 2-0. With the Wild Card race tightening, winning these games is very important for Oakland. They have a 2.5 game lead over Seattle, who is playing last place Texas this weekend. Following yesterday’s win, Oakland is now 7-1 off a shutout victory in 2021. Injuries have really decimated the Angels lineup to the point that it’s now pretty easy to pitch around Shohei Ohtani. Cole Irvin will be looking to lead a third straight shutout win today. He didn’t allow any runs the last time he faced Los Angeles in a seven inning effort. That was earlier this month. The A’s bullpen did give up a run in that game, but the team still won 4-1. Since then, A’s pitching has a 27-inning scoreless streak against the Angels. Head to head this season, Oakland is 11-3 vs. their division rival. Jaime Barria is making just his second start of the year for the Angels today. Given how ineffective his teammates have been against Oakland in ‘21, Barria will need to be near perfect to get the win here. We don’t think he’s capable of getting the job done. Oakland is 14-4 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. Play on OAKLAND AAA |
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07-30-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 8 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Heading into yesterday, both these teams were coming off series where every game went Over. But those series were against American League opponents. In the case of Colorado, they were on the road, so they got to play with a DH. Yesterday’s 3-0 win by the Padres marked a return to form for both teams. When the Rockies are on the road and NOT getting to use a DH, the results at the plate are typically pretty dire. They are putting up just 3.1 runs/contest away from Coors Field this year. As a team, they have hit .210 in those games. That is clearly the predominant reason for their 11-39 road record. As for San Diego, shutting out the Rockies yesterday was not all that special. Visitors are putting up only 3.7 runs/contest at Petco Park this season. In their last four games here, the Rockies have scored a total of eight times. They’ve actually won two of those four games though as the Padres have also scored a total of eight times. The Under is 4-0 in those four games obviously and you should expect it to come in again tonight. Jon Gray has had a nice six-start stretch for Colorado. One of those six starts saw him limit San Diego to one run and three hits in six innings. Gray has a 2.99 career ERA vs. SD and has limited them to a .227 average this season. Ryan Weathers opposed Gray back on July 11th and that ended up being a 3-1 final. Weathers again opposes Gray today. He’s since thrown four shutout innings vs. Miami on 7/24. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-30-21 | Orioles v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After scoring twice in the first inning last night, Detroit never looked back and ended up beating Baltimore 6-2. The Tigers have now won three in a row and are within five games of .500. The Orioles are 31 games below the Mendoza line and simply playing out the string. They had won four of five coming into this series, but all of those games were against National League teams and at home. They’ve given up a lot of runs in 2021, more than any other AL team in fact, but Detroit isn’t likely to score more than they did here last night. Matt Harvey, believe it or not, has been pretty good for B-more of late. He’s allowed no runs in his last two starts, both of which were six-inning efforts. He’s only allowed four hits and one walk! Skubal will pitch tonight for the Tigers and he’s got a 0.94 WHIP his last three starts. The Orioles got just 29 at-bats last night (which is two more than the minimum) and had only four hits. The last time Skubal pitched at home, he allowed one run in six innings. His last three starts have all gone Under and that doesn’t even count a start here at home on 6/27 when he held Houston (MLB’s highest scoring team) to one hit in seven innings. The Under is on a 7-3-1 run for the Tigers if they scored 5 or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-29-21 | Brewers -184 v. Pirates | Top | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We just don’t see any path to victory for the Pirates. Yesterday was the eighth time in the previous nine meetings that they lost to Milwaukee. The last five losses have all been in Pittsburgh this month and what’s crazy is that all five losses have been by four runs or more. It was a 7-3 final yesterday with two of the Pirates runs coming in relatively meaningless fashion. Those two were scored in the bottom of the ninth with the game already out of hand. The Brewers’ scored the game’s first seven runs. This was after a 9-0 win on Tuesday. The Brewers are starting to run away with the NL Central as they’ve built a seven game lead. They’ve allowed the second fewest number of runs in baseball during 2021. Pittsburgh has scored the fewest, so you can see why this has been even more lopsided than most first place vs. last place matchups. We look for Freddy Peralta to pitch the visitors to another victory tonight as he has put together a strong season with a 2.34 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. Peralta has a 12-6 TSR and what’s crazy is that there has been only one start where he allowed more than three runs. Chad Kuhl has been Pittsburgh’s most profitable starter, but he still has a 4.36 ERA. Milwaukee’s 31 road wins are tied for the most in MLB and they have scored at least six times in four of the last five games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-29-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-14 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Both games in this series have gone Under as have the Yankees' last six games overall and the Rays’ last four. In the six game stretch for New York, they have never scored more than four runs. As we’ve previously talked about (we had the Under in Tuesday’s game), NY is one of the lowest scoring clubs in the American League. Only Texas has scored less runs over the duration of the season. Tampa Bay has scored a combined six runs in the last three games. They had only three hits Wednesday in a game that was 1-1 heading into the 10th. (Yankees won 3-1). Gerrit Cole will be starting Thursday’s game. We can probably count on him keeping the Rays in check based on a 2.74 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Over his last three starts, Cole has 31 strikeouts and has allowed just four runs in 20 innings. One of those was a complete game shutout at Houston. Back on May 12th, Cole didn’t allow any runs when he faced the Rays, limiting them to just three hits in eight innings. Yesterday the Rays had just four at-bats with runners in scoring position. It’s probably up to Luis Patino to keep Tampa Bay in this game. Fortunately for him and the Rays, the game is at home. In three previous home starts, Patino’s ERA is 1.04. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | Rockies v. Angels -200 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 7* on LOS ANGELES The Angels got embarrassed Tuesday night as they lost to the Rockies 12-3. Why is that so embarrassing? Well, besides the score itself, you have to realize that Colorado is a MLB-worst 11-37 on the road where it averages fewer than three runs per contest. Last night saw the Rockies jump out to a 10-0 lead by the fifth inning. But starting pitching should be less of a concern for the home team tonight. Andrew Heaney is off a really strong effort where he allowed just two runs at Minnesota last week. The Angels won that game 3-2. The Rockies were lucky to have Austin Gomber on the mound Tuesday, but tonight they’re forced to rely on Chi-Chi Gonzalez. He has an ugly 9.00 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three trips to the mound. Given the season-long struggle to score runs on the road, you just can’t expect anything close to a repeat of last night’s performance from the Rockies. Only one time in 2021 have they won back to back road games. That was right before the All Star Break. Ohtani homered last night for the Angels, who average 5.5 runs/game at home. They are a perfect 6-0 after a game in which they allowed 10 or more runs. They are 8-1 as home favorites of -175 or higher. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA |
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07-28-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Over their last six games, Atlanta has scored two or less runs four times. They won just one of those games. There have also been two games where they scored 12 and 15 times. The 12 came last night, quadrupling the number of runs scored from the previous three games combined. They played a doubleheader against the Mets on Monday. Those games ended up being 2-0 in favor of Atlanta and 1-0 in favor of the Mets. While doubleheader games are only now seven innings, we also know that Mets’ home games on average are very low scoring. This was discussed in our 10* Total of the Week release on Monday. They are putting up only 3.5 runs/contest, but allow only 2.7. This Tylor Megill has been a bit of a revelation in the starting rotation. In six starts he has a 2.10 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. He has a 12-inning scoreless streak going and has allowed only two runs total in his last four starts. So the Braves offensive numbers should nosedive tonight. Remember they lost Ronald Acuna Jr for the year. The Mets don’t score much either and Max Fried has a 2.80 ERA in 15 career starts against them. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-28-21 | A's v. Padres UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8 * on UNDER The Padres were able to beat the Athletics 7-4 on Tuesday. The series wraps up this afternoon and we think this matinee will be a lower-scoring game compared to the opener. The home team used a 5-run fifth inning to get the ‘W’ yesterday. Getting another big inning like that will be much more difficult here as they face Sean Manaea. The Under is 7-1-1 in Manaea road starts and he’s put together a 2.94 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in those nine games. His season-long numbers got even better after his last start where he struck out 13 and gave up just one run on three hits. Oakland won that game 4-1 over Seattle. That’s also the last time they won a game. Four straight losses have seen them score just 14 runs. They have scored no more than four times in eight of their last nine games. The struggles at the plate are likely to continue as they come up to bat today without the DH. San Diego is allowing just 3.6 runs/contest at home. They’ve got Blake Snell going and he’s 6-1 at Petco Park with a 1.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Six of those seven starts have stayed Under. Snell also allowed just one run and three hits in his last start. If there is a saving grace for Oakland here it’s that they only give up 3.8 runs/contest on the road. The Under is 13-3 if they allowed five or more runs in the last game. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Rockies v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Colorado simply can’t score (or win) on the road. It’s really gotten embarrassing. Yesterday’s 6-2 loss in Anaheim was an all-too familiar result for Rockies fans, whose team is 10-37 away from home where it averages 2.9 runs/game. The struggles outside Coors Field are nothing new for the franchise, but this season seems to be a new low. We have no reason to expect they’ll score many runs tonight either. They have not scored more than three times in six of the last seven road games. They have crossed the plate only four times in the last three. But maybe Austin Gomber can keep them in the game Tuesday. Gomber has pitched very well this season as he has a 2.31 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in his previous seven starts. He was 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in June. He’s made only one start this month because of forearm tightness. That one start did see him allow three solo shots. But those were the only runs he allowed. Jose Suarez is making his 4th start for the Angels here. The previous three all stayed Under. The Under is 20-7 in the Rockies’ last 27 games. Two southpaws going in an interleague game should equal a low-scoring output. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-27-21 | Reds v. Cubs -175 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -175 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS The Cubs stormed back to beat the Reds last night 6-5. It was a bases loaded single from Javy Baez that won it in the bottom of the ninth. Down 5-3, the Cubs scored a run in each of the final three innings. That had to feel pretty good after losing three games in Cincinnati earlier in July - all of them by one run. We don’t think tonight’s game will be all that close though. The Cubs can be counted on to get the job done at Wrigley where they are 31-18 overall and 13-6 as a favorite of -125 to -175. Since the All Star Break, the Reds are allowing more than seven runs per game. Tough to win that way. Vladimir Gutierrez doesn’t exactly seem like a “stopper” either. He gave up three homers and six runs total in an ugly 15-11 loss to the Mets last week. Alzolay is a much better option for the Cubs even though he’s 0-6 in his last seven starts. That might sound weird, but it’s been a lack of run support that has hurt Alzolay the most. He pitched well enough to get the win on July 3rd in Cincinnati, but his offense went 0 for 9 with runners in scoring position. This time, at Wrigley, Alzolay will get the win. The Reds have lost 7 of 10 since the All Star Break and yesterday was the only one game to take place on the road. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA |
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07-27-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The AL East is the only division where four teams have won at least 51% of their games. Tampa Bay is 60-40 and sitting in second place, 1.5 games behind Boston. They’ve allowed fewer runs than all their division rivals. The Yankees are tied (with Baltimore) for last in the division in runs scored. There’s only one team in the whole American League that has scored less runs than New York and that’s Texas. Similarly, there’s only one team in the whole AL that’s allowed fewer runs than the Rays and that’s the White Sox. The Yankees have gone Under in four straight, scoring all of 14 runs in those games. The number of runs allowed per game at home by the Rays is only 3.2 with the opponents batting average just .207. While this sounds like a big edge going to the Rays tonight, Jordan Montgomery figures to keep the visitors alive. The Yankees’ left-hander has a 2.94 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in his last three starts. The Under is 3-0. He’s given up no more than three runs in 10 of his last 11 starts. For the Rays, Shane McClanahan has allowed only one run in back to back starts. He’s given up no more than three runs in 12 of his 14 starts this year. Look for this to be a low-scoring affair. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-26-21 | Tigers v. Twins -162 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MINNESOTA The last eight times these teams have played, the home team has won. That means trouble for Detroit, who just got swept in Kansas City over the weekend and has now dropped seven straight overall on the road. They were swept here in Minnesota right before the break. Playing at home, they won seven in a row coming out of the break. But the sweep in Kansas City showed this is still the “same old Tigers.” Minnesota has lost 8 of 11 since the break including three games in Detroit. But the success that the home team has had in this season series is likely to continue Monday. The Tigers are 19-32 on the road (55-103 L3 seasons!), giving up 5.5 runs/game. Manning lost all three of his road starts for the team and not looked good in doing so with an 8.56 ERA. After being held in check the last two days, the Twins offense has to get rolling here. Pineda has been pretty good at home (3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) and beat the White Sox here his last start. The Tigers are on a 27-55 run in series openers. We know the Twins have been the opposite of profitable in 2021, but this line speaks for itself. Play on MINNESOTA AAA |
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07-26-21 | Braves v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The first game of today’s doubleheader between the Braves and Mets figures to be a pretty low-scoring affair. Remember that we’re playing only just seven innings here, which is why the total is so “low.” The Mets have the division lead and are up by five games over Atlanta coming into today. The weekend saw the NL East leaders take two of three from Toronto while the Braves split a four-game series in Philadelphia. Atlanta has alternated wins and losses since the break, going 4-5 overall. They lost 2-1 Sunday, marking the fourth time in six games they failed to score more than two runs. Scoring more than two in this first game might prove difficult as they are set to face Marcus Stroman, who threw eight shutout innings in his last start, which was against a Reds lineup that is pretty strong. Stroman allowed only one hit for the game. There have been only five times this season where Stroman allowed more than three runs and this game will be shorter than usual. Three of the five times he allowed more than three runners to score, runs were unearned. Mets’ home games average just 6.1 total runs. The Under is 7-1 in Stroman home starts. Kyle Muller has a 2.41 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four starts for Atlanta, so look for a low-scoring game all-around. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-25-21 | White Sox v. Brewers -132 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE We like Milwaukee to finish off what would be a very impressive sweep of the White Sox Sunday night. Chicago came into this interleague series with one of the best records in baseball. Only three teams have a better win percentage, but the Brewers are rapidly closing on them after the wins Friday and Saturday. The White Sox have managed only two runs against Milwaukee pitching so far. It won’t get any easier tonight when they face Brandon Woodruff. He has a 13-6 team start record this year. That record should probably be even better considering Woodruff’s ERA of 2.04 and his WHIP of 0.83. At American Family Field, the Brewers are 7-2 when he starts. In the last seven games, Milwaukee has averaged 6.3 runs/game while allowing only 3.3. Opponents’ batting average is only .193 in those seven games. Chicago is hitting just .211 its last seven games while averaging 3.4 runs. Lance Lynn won’t be enough to save them here as they are 0-3 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. They are just a .500 team on the road overall (23-23). It’s been 7-1 and 6-1 the first two games of this series, so things haven’t even been close. The Brewers homered four times on Saturday. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
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07-25-21 | Pirates v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 101 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER San Francisco is looking to avoid what would be a very surprising sweep on Sunday. It’s not just that they are at home and have the best win percentage in baseball. What makes the results of the last two days truly shocking is that they have lost to the Pirates, who have the fourth worst win percentage in all of baseball. A 10-2 score on Saturday caught us off-guard. Pittsburgh pounded out a season-high 16 hits and was one run away from matching a season high. It certainly stands to reason they’ll do worse at the plate today. The Bucs have scored the fewest number of runs in MLB. The Giants have given up the fewest number of runs per game. We will put our trust in Alex Wood today. Wood is unbeaten his past seven starts and he’s allowed a total of eight runs in the last four. He’s given up just one home run in those four starts. That’s one half of the equation. The other half is Pirates starter JT Brubaker keeping the Giants offense in check. We think that will happen too, even though Brubaker has struggled a bit recently. The Giants have gone five straight games with nine or fewer hits and they are 8-2 Under after scoring two runs or less the previous day. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Rockies v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER If you haven’t been paying close attention, the Rockies’ record against the Dodgers this year is as poor as you’d expect it to be. It’s 3-8 and that’s after a 9-6 win yesterday, a game that went 10 innings. The Dodgers’ bullpen has seemingly become a bit of an issue as it gave up six runs in the last three innings yesterday, three of them in the 10th. The Dodgers are now 1-10 in extra innings this year. That means 58-30 if they wrap things up in the usual nine. They probably will do that today. It is a three-game losing streak with blown save opportunities in every game. But Colorado is just not a good road team. Yesterday was only the 10th road win of the season. They are 2-14 at +175 or higher. No, we aren’t playing the money line though. Take the Under in this one as Tony Gonsolin (2.80 ERA in seven starts) should have no problem taking care of a Colorado lineup that is averaging 3.0 runs on the road. The Dodgers are facing Kyle Freeland whose last five starts have all gone Under. The last one was vs. the Dodgers and he only gave up three runs in six innings. Those last five starts have seen him allow only seven runs in 28 innings. Expect a low-scoring affair tonight at Chavez Ravine. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Red Sox season-long domination of the Yankees continued Friday night with a 6-2 win at Fenway Park. Boston is now 9-2 overall vs. their hated rival in 2021, 5-0 at home. This after going 6-23 against them the previous two years. This afternoon they will face Jameson Taillon for the third time. The last one did not go well as Taillon held them to just four hits in 5.3 innings and did not give up a run. Taillon has been much better recently with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts. But he’s still averaging fewer than five innings per outing this season. He has a 7.20 ERA on the road where all seven starts have gone Over the total. The Red Sox offense has been one of the big surprises in baseball this season, averaging 5.1 runs/game and 5.4 at Fenway. We look for them to have a lot more success facing Taillon today than they did last weekend. Nathan Eovaldi is starting for Boston on Saturday. This will be the fourth time he’s faced New York in 2021, all of the starts coming since June 4th. So the Yankees definitely know him well. They’ve had very little success vs. Eovaldi mind you, but we think they’ll score enough to help get this one Over the number. The Over is 13-6-1 the past 20 times NY has been a dog. Play on OVER AAA |
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07-24-21 | Diamondbacks v. Cubs -159 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -159 | 4 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the CUBS From June 25th until July 6th, the Cubs lost 11 straight games. That losing streak really took them out of the NL Central race. They are now looking at a nine game deficit to make up in the division and it’s just as large if they want to make the playoffs as a Wild Card. Too bad that they can’t play Arizona every day then. Since ending that 11-game losing streak, the Cubs have won six times. Three of those wins were versus the Diamondbacks. Last night they won 8-3, a game they homered three times and led 7-0 when starter Zach Davies exited. In case you needed to be reminded, Arizona is a horrible baseball team. At 30-69, they have the worst overall record. They’ve also been outscored by 150 runs. The road has seen them go 11-39 and lose 31 of their last 33 games! We’ve got to play against them at this price. Especially with it being a day game, a situation that Arizona is 10-23 this year. The Cubs are used to day games. Starting today will be Alec Mills, who has a solid 3.45 ERA in six starts since becoming a regular part of the rotation. For Arizona, Merrill Kelly is probably their best starter. But even he has a 3-7 TSR away from home and a 5.33 ERA as well. The Cubs are 29-17 at home. How can we not? Play on CHICAGO AAA |
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07-23-21 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Yes, we took the Under in last night’s A’s-Mariners contest and won. We cited Seattle’s really awful offensive numbers at home. Those haven’t changed, but we’ll be switching course to the Over for tonight’s game. The number is low, so it won’t take much. Yusei Kikuchi is coming off back to back rough starts for Seattle where he’s given up 12 runs in 10 innings. Oakland’s last five games have gone Under as have the last three starts by Frankie Montas. So we’re probably looking at a situation where they are due for a high scoring game. They are a higher scoring team on the road. Montas’ ERA is still 4.34 for the year. The A’s have scored at least four runs in each of their last five games vs. the Mariners. So we can count on their offense to get the job done. The Over is 12-4 the last 16 times Seattle has been off a loss, so maybe we should count on theirs too? Play on OVER AAA |
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07-23-21 | Angels -119 v. Twins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAA One swing of the bat altered last night’s Angels-Twins game in a major way. It was a three-run homer by Jack Mayfield that gave the road team a 3-2 win Thursday. Andrew Heaney also retired the last 11 batters he saw in his longest start of the season. It’s tough times right now in Minnesota as they just traded away Nelson Cruz. That move signified the Twins are basically throwing in the towel on 2021. They’ve been one of baseball’s biggest disappointments and that’s reflected by the fact they are down 26.2 units, second worst out of all 30 teams. Friday’s pitching matchup heavily favors the Angels as they’ve got Alex Cobb starting. He is 2-0 with 0.92 ERA in three starts this month and has allowed one or no earned runs in four of his last five starts. Minnesota’s J.A. Happ just got rocked in Detroit where he surrendered seven runs and 11 hits. That was the third time in the last six starts he allowed six or more runs and the second time in the last three. Happ has given up at least one home run in nine straight starts with multiple HR’s allowed five times. He has a 5.14 ERA in nine previous starts vs. the Angels. Shohei Ohtani, possibly feeling the effects of the All Star festivities, is just 4 for his last 24. Don’t be surprised if he has a big day at the plate tonight. Play on LA ANGELS AAA |
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07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The last time the Cardinals and Reds hooked up, the latter swept a four-game series in St. Louis. The previous series between them, also in St. Louis, was a three-game sweep for the home team. Now they meet in Cincinnati. The Reds have lost five of six games since the All Star Break. St. Louis has won five of its last six. The last two Cardinals wins were over the Cubs, both 3-2 finals. The Reds were shut out in their last game, 7-0 by the Mets on Wednesday. They finished with just one hit and two base runners for the game. Thus, we are looking for this game to be a low-scoring affair. Reds’ home games have been high scoring this year, but St. Louis comes in hitting only .219 in road games. They had just five hits in yesterday’s win. Tyler Mahle has done well in two prior starts vs. the Cardinals this year. He won both and allowed just five runs in 12 innings. One of those runs was unearned. He also has 17 strikeouts vs. only three walks. As for St. Louis, they turn to Wade LeBlanc and his 1.62 career ERA vs. the Reds is fourth best among all active starters. In his last four starts, LeBlanc has permitted only five runs over 18 innings. The number was set too high for this one. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-22-21 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 8 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER Coming back home after playing two games at Coors Field should have a negative impact on the Mariners offense today. They are hitting .203 at T-Mobile Park, which is without question the lowest batting average for any team at home this year. They also own the lowest on base percentage. So do not expect Seattle to score many runs today off Sean Manaea. On top of everything you just read, Manaea shutout the Mariners over a full nine innings last month. The Under is 5-0 the past five teams Seattle has taken on a lefty at home. (Manaea is a lefty). But if there’s a “saving grace” for the Mariners in today’s game, it would be that Chris Flexen is starting. Flexen has been great at home this year with a 1.76 ERA. The Under is 7-3 in his 10 home starts. His last three starts, two of which did come at home, have resulted in a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. His last seven starts have resulted in a 1.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP and none of them have seen Flexen allow more than three runs. He’s allowed one or less five times and has always made it through six innings. Play on UNDER AAA |
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07-22-21 | Rays -137 v. Indians | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB The Rays swept the Indians earlier this month. Since then, they’ve managed to take two of three in three straight series. They are second in the AL East, one game behind Boston. As for the Indians, they’d lost nine in a row after being swept in Tampa Bay. They’ve turned it around somewhat, but did just drop two of three in Houston. Before that, they swept Kansas City and took two of three from Oakland. The Indians are also a second place team, but are 7.5 games behind the Rays. They did win yesterday, but we see their struggles vs. the Rays continuing tonight. Tampa Bay is a good road team (95-68 L3 seasons). They average 5.3 runs/game away from home in 2021. Cleveland is 1-7 as a home underdog of +125 to +175. The Rays don’t exactly have their best starter on the mound this evening, but Luis Patino is facing a lineup that is bottom five in batting average and on base percentage. Cleveland’s Cal Quantrill had not recorded a win in any of his first seven starts. He’s won his last two, but still has a 5.69 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Randy Arozarena has gotten hot at the plate for the Rays, who averaged seven runs/game in the previous three-game sweep of the Indians. Cleveland is 3-13 its last 16 games vs. Tampa Bay. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA |
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07-22-21 | Rangers v. Tigers -130 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DETROIT Detroit is 6-0 since the All-Star Break and all signs point to them finishing off their second straight sweep. They’ve won three in a row over the Rangers, whose second half is off to a much different start. Texas has not won a game since July 9th as the losing streak hit eight with yesterday’s 4-2 loss. The most embarrassing thing of all is that Texas has failed to score more than two runs in any of its last seven games. They’ve been shutout three times, once by Detroit (14-0 in series opener) and scored a total of six runs in those last seven contests. The Rangers have the third worst record in baseball and are 13-36 on the road, 0-11 when the money line is +125 to -125. As if things couldn’t get any worse, they’ve got Mike Foltynewicz on the hill Thursday. After giving up 10 runs in an inning and two-thirds last week vs Toronto, Foltynewicz has a 6-13 team start record. He’s allowed at least one home run in nine straight starts. The last two starts have seen him give up a total of seven long balls. Detroit, whose pitching has given up a total of seven runs during its six-game win streak, will turn to Tyler Alexander today. This is a good matchup for the lefty as Texas is barely hitting over .100 its last eight games. The Rangers are 0-9 the L9 times they’ve lost the first three games of a series. Play on DETROIT AAA |
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07-21-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -116 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS This is the rubber match between two teams whose respective seasons have gone a bit sideways in recent weeks. The Cardinals won the first game 8-3 and were seemingly well on their way to winning again last night. But disaster struck in the bottom of the ninth when closer Alex Reyes had his first career blown save. The Cubs scored six times in the top of the ninth, sending 10 men to the plate, and wound up winning 7-6. It was only their eighth win in the last 29 games. They won and scored seven runs despite only having six hits. We will back St. Louis in this deciding game of the series as they’ve pretty clearly been the better team in the series aside from one bad inning. Adam Wainwright, who has a 2.84 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at Busch Stadium, will be starting tonight. The Cubs only hit .217 on the road where they are 19-31 on the year. Going for the Cubs will be Kyle Hendricks. He has not lost a decision since May 9th vs. Pittsburgh and is 3-0 vs. the Cardinals in 2021. But we think he’s due for a loss here as the Cubs simply haven’t been good over the last month and are 2-10 L12 as underdogs. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA |
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07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO We went with the White Sox last night and thanks to a five-run rally in the eighth, they won 9-5. That came on the heels of these teams splitting a doubleheader on Monday. But as we said in yesterday’s analysis, there’s no denying who the better team is here. The White Sox continue to flourish at home where they are 35-16 this year. As a home favorite of -125 to -175, they are 19-3. It seems as if the oddsmakers haven’t yet learned their lesson as the AL Central leaders are again priced in that range and it’s simply too low when facing a Twins team that is down 26.3 units on the season. Only Arizona has been a worse team to bet on. Minnesota is 3-12 vs. the White Sox this year and 1-8 in Chicago. The White Sox have won 9 of 11 overall and are one of only five teams to have a winning percentage greater than .600. We don’t think Michael Pineda can keep the Twins in this game. The team has lost his last four starts with him allowing 15 runs on 29 hits in just 16.6 innings. Dylan Cease had 10 strikeouts in his last start for the White Sox and it was also the fourth time in five starts he allowed three runs or less. Play on CHICAGO AAA |