Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-12-21 | San Diego State v. BYU -3 | Top | 60-66 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on BYU at 9:00 ET. Both the San Diego State Aztecs and the BYU Cougars basketball programs have produced some impressive AP-ranked teams for many seasons now. SDSU's Brian Dutcher took over for his mentor Steve Fisher and is entering his fifth season, He's gone 96-31 in his first four, inducing 23-5 last year. Mark Pope is in just his third season at BYU but has delivered a 44-15 two-year mark, including 20-7 last season. Neither team is in the latest top-25 poll but expect to see them sometime during the current season. BYU lost guard Averette (11.7 PPG / 2nd-leading scorer) and the 7-3 Haarms (11.3 & 5.0) but got the unexpected return of guard Parcello (16.1-4.7-4.2). He led the Cougars with 24 points on 5 of 6 shooting with a perfect 13 of 13 mark from the foul line along with 4 assists. Guard Spencer Johnson added 13 points, while the 6-7 Caleb Lohner added seven points with a team-high nine rebounds. Making contributions up front were the 6-6 George (seven rebounds) and the 6-6 Traore (8 rebounds and 3 blocks in 24 minutes off of the bench). |
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11-12-21 | Bucks v. Celtics +2 | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* ESPN 'Table-Setter' is on the Bos Celtics at 7:40 ET. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will visit Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics on Friday night. Neither team can be too happy where it stands coming into this one. The Bucks are 6-6 and the Celtics are 5-6. Milwaukee let a 24-point lead slip away vv New York on Wednesday night, but the Bucks still found a way to pull out a 112-100 win on the road against the Knicks. Milwaukee has now won back-to-back games, after dropping five of its prior six games. As for Boston, the Celtics got some revenge with a 104-88 home win against the Raptors on Wednesday after being blown out by Toronto in a 32-point defeat in the Celtics' home opener.
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11-12-21 | Western Kentucky -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 69-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Western Ky at 6:30 ET. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers meet Friday from US Cellular Center in Minneapolis (not the Gophers' homecourt). The Hilltoppers are coming off a 21-9 season in which they lost in the C-USA championship game while Minnesota saw a 9-1 start to its 2020-21 season (No. 21 in the AP poll) fall apart by losing 14 of its final 19 games to finish 14-15, That was enough to end Richard Pitino's 8-year run at Minnesota, as Ben Jonhson takes over (first head coaching gig). In contrast, Rick Stansbury enters his sixth season at Western Ky, having won 20-plus games in each of his last four. Gone from last year's team are the 6-9 Bassey (17.6 & 11.6) and guard Holingsworth (13.9). However, Stansbury has a solid core of two guards and two froncort players on this year's team. The Hilltoppers' 79-74 opening win over Alabama St was hardly impressive but the 6-8 Hamilton had 21 points and the 6-9 Butz added 12 & 6. Guards McKnight (19-5-6) and Anderson (12 & 7) both played well. Minnesota also opened with a less-than-impressive win over UMKC. There was a mass exodus at Minnesota, as players transferred right and left (NONE of last year's starters are back!). Most notbaly, Minnesota lost (to Texas) one of last season's best backcourt players in Carr (19.4-4.0-4.9). The 6-7 Battle (18 points) and the 6-9 Curry (7 & 7) look like Minnesota's best frontcourt players and Willis and Stephens (both had 13 points vs UMKC) as the best backcourt performers. The Golden Gophers were picked to finish last in the Big Ten preseason media poll and the team has more questions than answers. Yes, WKU came out slow in its opener as a big favorite but the team made adjustments and came out with a win. Rick Stansbury led Miss St to 11 postseason bids in hsi 14 years at Starkville and is again proving he's a winner at Western, ky. The hilltoppers win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers UNDER 214.5 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner (O/U) is on Mia/LAC under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers began the season knowing Kawhi would miss most if not all of it. The Clipps started slowly but will take a five-game winning streak into a home contest against the Miami Heat on Thursday. The Heat will enter off a 120-117 overtime defeat to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday, which followed a 113-96 loss in Denver on Monday. Wednesday's loss was the THIRD in four games for the Heat but more notably, they lost star Jimmy Butler (23.6-5.5-5.1) after 12 minutes because of a sprained right ankle. His status for Thursday's game remains in the air. Bam Adebayo (19.3 & 11.6) scored 28 points and Tyler Herro (20.9-5.3-3.9) had 27, but the Heat missed five free throws and two 3-point attempts by Herro in the final 50.9 seconds of overtime. Miami led 106-97 with 4:45 remaining in regulation before the Lakers rallied to tie it. The Clippers made it FIVE straight wins with a 117-109 victory at home over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday. Paul George (26.7-8.3-5.4) had 24 points and got 23 from Reggie Jackson (17.6-3.5-4.5), while Nicolas Batum (12.1 & 6.3) was right behind the leading scorers, hitting six 3-pointers while scoring 22 points. The Clippers seem to have found their 'mojo.' The team-wide approach has shown on both offense (balanced scoring) and also on defense, leading to four consecutive victories by at least an eight-point margin. Both teams have been known as strong defensive ones. Miami enters allowing 103.2 PPG (6th) and Los Angeles 103.2 PPG (7th). This is a great situational play. Not only is Miami dealing with some off-court issues (COVID related), but it's also off an exhausting (and disappointing) 120-117 overtime loss at the Lakers just last night.The last thing that LA will want to do here is to play at a fast pace, as that plays right into the Heat's strength on the offensive end. The Heat will almost assuredly double-down on the defensive end as well. This one sets up as well from a number of different ways to be much more of a defensive affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-21 | Ravens -7.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game of the Week is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. The Baltimore Ravens opened the season by 'letting one slip away' in Las Vegas against the Raiders (lost in OT), while the Dolphins opened with a 17-16 win at New England, despite being outplayed in every facet of the game. The teams have gone in opposite directions ever since, as Baltimore's won SIX of seven, while the Dolphins had lost SEVEN in a row before beating the hapless Texans 17-9 last Sunday (Houston won in Week 1 and has lost EIGHT in a row since).
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Pittsburgh at 7:30 ET. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll and was led by one of the Heisman favorites, QB Sam Howell. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (coming off a 6-5 season) entered the current season unranked and was not even among the 19 schools that were in the groups known as "others receiving votes." The two teams take the field Thursday night at Heinz Field for a key game in the ACC's Coastal Division. Pittsburgh is 7-2 overall (21st in the CFP rankings) and at 4-1 in ACC play, controls its destiny in the division, while North Carolina (5-4, 3-3) has had a HUGELY disappointing season but can stay in contention with a victory. The Tar Heels are fresh off a 58-55 comeback victory against then-No. 9 Wake Forest (Demon Deacons were 8-0), a contest in which they put up 546 yards of total offense. Howell won't win the Heisman but he leads a VERY balanced offense (273.6 YPG passing / 219.4 YPG rushing) by completing 63.1% for 2,408 yards (20 TDs / 7 INTs), while rushing for 699 yards (5.2 YPC / 8 TDs). RB Chandler has 884 rushing yards (6.2 YPC / 13 TDs) and WR Downs has 74 catches (1,104 yards / 8 TDs). North Carolina is averaging 38.9 PPG (12th) but the defense is a mess, It allowed 615 yards against Wake and is allowing 33.4 PPG on the season (111th) on 421.4 YPG (95th). Howell had more fanfare coming into the season but Pitt QB Kenny Pickett is having a Heisman-like season. He's completing 68.7% for 3,171 yards with 29 TDs and 3 INTs. He's run for 234 yards (4 TDs) and three RBs chip in between 315-to-498 yards for a running game averaging 167.2 YPG. WR Addison (54 catches / 18.3 YPC / 11 TDs) is among the top WRs in the nation and Pittsburgh is tops in the nation in scoring (45.0 PPG) and second in total offense (543.3 YPG). Defensively, Pitt is solid, allowing 22.7 PPG (45th) on 345.0 YPG (37th). North Carolina has been consistently inconsistent from week to next this season and I expect that trend to continue here against Pittsburgh, which is 'smelling' the possibility of a memorable season. In contrast to NC's inconsistency, The Panthers have gone above the 50-point mark in four games this season, the most for any Pittsburgh team since 1905. What's more, 7-2 Pittsburgh is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in its seven wins in 2021. Meanwhile, the only consistency North Carolina has shown since the start of the 2020 season is this. The Tar Heels take the field Thursday 3-8 ATS in their last 11 following a straight-up win. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-21 | Detroit +5 v. Wyoming | Top | 47-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Ls Vegas Insider is on Detroit at 9:00 ET.
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11-10-21 | Kings v. Spurs +1 | Top | 117-136 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SA Spurs at 8:40 ET. The San Antonio Spurs return home after a 99-94 loss in Oklahoma City on Sunday, a game in which they squandered a 16-point first-half lead before fighting back to make it a one-possession game in the final seconds. The ability to "close out games" has been lacking so far for the 3-7 Spurs (more later). The Sacramento Kings are 5-6 this season, as they look to end the longest active playoff drought of any NBA franchise (Kings have missed the last 15 postseasons!). San Antonio led by 10 at the half at OKC but was outscored 34-14 in the third period as it missed 11 of its final 13 shots in that quarter. "We got to learn from that -- not just settling and doing what we do to keep those leads," guard Lonnie Walker IV said. "We just got to come together. When these scoring droughts come, we try and do it ourselves." Keldon Johnson (16.2 & 5.8) led the Spurs with 22 points in the loss while Walker (12.3 & 5.6 APG had 15 off the bench, Drew Eubanks scored 14 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, and Dejounte Murray, Doug McDermott and Thaddeus Young added 10 points apiece. Eubanks and Young are role players but PG Murray (17.6-8.1-8.3) is San Antonio's best player. As for center Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7), Popovich added that he isn't sure about his availability this week as he deals with health and safety protocols. "We know he is not going to be ready for (the Kings game) or Friday (against Dallas)," Popovich said. The Kings visit San Antonio on the heels of a 109-104 home loss to defending Western Conference champion Phoenix that went down to the final seconds. Sacramento's poor third quarter allowed the Suns to build a 21-point lead early in the fourth, but the Kings rallied to within a possession before a late turnover and free throws by Phoenix closed out the game. The Kings played against Phoenix without guard Tyrese Haliburton (13.6 & 5.0 APG), who had lower back tightness. Sacramento has depth at the guard position with PG Fox (18.6 & 6.2 APG) and Hield (17.4 & 5.4), who started (has been coming off the bench). SF Barnes (22.5 & 8.7) is having a career season plus undersized center Holmes (14.6 & 10.5) just seems to get better. Baylor rookie Mitchell IS getting better by the game and is up to 9.9 PPG on the season. The 3-7 Spurs have good peripheral numbers, as they're ranked third in the league in pace, ninth in the league in field goal percentage, second in assists, sixth in steals, and they're tied for fifth in defensive rating. Maybe that's why they are 6-4 ATS. Six of San Antonio's seven losses this season have come by an average of five points and while they'll have to win to cover here, I have little faith in the Kings, who just NEVER seem to fulfill any perceived promise. Pop over Luke Walton ANYTIME! Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-21 | Ball State -2 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* MAC Attack-Part 2 is on Ball St at 7:00 ET. The Ball State Cardinals will travel to Huskie Stadium in DeKalb to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies on Wednesday night. The Cardinals improved to 5-4 on the season with a 31-25 win over the Akron Zips (11/2) and are now 3-2 in the MAC-West. The Northern Illinois Huskies had their 5-game winning streak snapped in a 52-47 loss at Kent St last Wednesday, dropping to 6-3 overall and 4-1 in the MAC-West. The Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. They lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It didn't start that way, as Ball St opened 1-3 but the Cardinals have won FOUR of their last five. QB Plitt has completed 63.2% for 1,776 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs. He has a trio of solid WRs in Hall (56 / 5 TDs), (Jackson 39 / 2 TDs) and Tyler (32 / 5 TDs) plus RB Steele does a nice job (582 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs). Ball St is averaging a modest 25.2 PPG (88th), while allowing 27.6 PPG (75th). More in a bit. Northern Illinois QB Rocky Lombardi is completing a modest 57.8% and has thrown for 1,853 yards with 12 TDs and six INTs. However, NIU's offense is led by a rushing attack that has averaged 221.4 YPG (10th) and features five players with more than 200 rushing yards (Lombard is in that group with 346 yards and has five TDs). RBs Ducker (579 yards / 5.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Waylee (574 yards / 5.7 YPC / 4 TDs) are the top producers. NIU averages 31.7 PPG (42) with a nice run/pass balance but the team's defense is allowing 33.8 PPG (112th) on 449.3 YPG (114th). NIU has the better record (6-3 to 5-4) and leads 4-1 to 3-2 in the division, YET Ball St is the small road favorite. That's NO oddsmaker's error, as Balls St is 3-0 SU on the road in MAC play, averaging 38.0 PPG and gets to go up against a Huskie defense that just allowed 52 points on 682 yards the last time out. Yes, NIU had won 10 straight in this series but Ball St has won the last two and makes it THREE in a row here with an easy win and cover. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Hawks +8 v. Jazz | Top | 98-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My NBA 10* East/West Game of the Week is on the Atl Hawks at 9:10 ET. The Atlanta Hawks began last season off FIVE consecutive fifth-place finishes but won the Southeast Division last year with a 41-31 record. They then made it all the way to the Eastern Conference finals, beating the East's top-seeded 76ers, before losing to the Bucks, the eventual NBA champs. Atlanta opened 3-1 this season but has suddenly 'fallen apart,' by losing SIX of seven, including four in a row. The Hawks are in Salt Lake City along with the team's 1-6 record on the road. The Jazz owned the NBA's best regular season record last season but lost in the second round of the playoffs to Denver. The Jazz opened the current season 7-1 (won 116-98 in Atlanta on Nov 4) but enter this contest off back-to-back losses at Miami (no big deal) but also at Orlando (not good!). The Jazz are 7-3 on the season (3-0 at home). No way to explain Atlanta's poor start, as the team has a terrific team leader in PG Young (23.7 & 9.5 APG), who is surrounded by a strong starting cast and plenty of depth. Young plus PF Collins (16.3 & 8.9), SG Bogdanovich (12.4) and center Capela (9.6 & 10.9) have started all 11 games, while SF Hunter (11.7) has started 10 of 11. Throw in Reddish (11.9), Gallinari (7.3) and Huerter (6.9) and it's a 'head scratcher' that the Hawks are playing this poorly. Utah can easily match Atlanta's 'cast of characters.' SG Mitchell (25.8-4.3-5.3) and PG Conley (16.1 & 4.8 APG) are the starting backcourt (Conley has missed three games), while SF Bogdanovich (16.9 & 4.6) and PF O'Neale (7.3 & 4.6) surround center Gobert (15.2 & 16.1). Clarkson (14.4) was 6th-man-of-the year last season and comes off the bench with guard Ingles (8.5),who has started the three games that Conley missed, and center Whiteside (7.1 & 7.9). The Charlotte Hornets lost to the Clippers 120-106 as six-point underdogs (got outscored 27-4 to end the game) on Sunday but then last night the Hornets played the second game of a back-to-back and lost to the Lakers just 126-123 in overtime. This Atlanta Hawks team finds itself in a similar position, as it comes to Utah off a 127-113 road loss at Golden State just last night. If this were the end of the season, fatigue would be an issue. However, we're still in the first month of play and these elite athletes will only benefit from the quick turnaround as they try to get back into the winner's circle. I like betting on motivated teams and after arguably being the biggest surprise team last season, their early play sio far has been a HUGE dissappointment. A little revnge motive from a beatdown by the Jazz back in Atlanta (see above), only adds to the motivation. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Pepperdine v. Rice -6.5 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Rice at 8:00 ET. The Pepperdine Waves and the Rice Owls meet Tuesday in college basketball action from Tudor Fieldhouse in Houston. Pepperdine had an up-and-down campaign in 2020-21, going 7-6 in WCC play. The Waves ended up in fourth-place in the conference standings behind Gonzaga (15-0), BYU (10-3) and Loyola Marymount (7-5). Pepperdine took out Santa Clara 78-70 in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament but lost in OT to BYU 82-77 in the semis. The Waves got an invite to the CBI, where they beat Longwood, Bellarmine and Coastal Carolina en route to a tournament championship, finishing 15-12. As for Rice, the Owls dealt with injuries and COVID issues all season, finishing 6-10 in C-USA West play. However, the team won TWO games in the C-USA tourney, before falling in the semis 73-60 to UAB (ending the year at 15-13),
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11-09-21 | Kansas -4 v. Michigan State | Top | 87-74 | Win | 100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* Champions ClassicShowdown is on Kansas at 7:00 ET. Bill Self's Jayhawks finished 21-9 last season, including a loss in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.Not what was expected of a team ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Michigan St owns a pretty famous head coach as well in Tom Izzo and his Spartans started at No. 13 at the opening of the 2020-21 season struggled in the regular season. Mich St made the NCAA tourney at 15-12 but was eliminated in a First Four game by UCLA. Kansas begins the current season ranked No. 3, while Michigan St is unranked (Spartans received the most votes of any team left out of the Top 25). Kansas faces Michigan State on Tuesday in college basketball's annual season-opening showcase (State Farm Champions Classic) at Madison Square Garden in New York. Self's team is 'loaded.' Remy Martin (19.1 PPG last season), an Arizona State transfer, was named the preseason player of the year in the Big 12. Two other veterans, the 6-10 David McCormack (13.4 & 6.7) and SG Ochai Agbaji (14.1), were also named to the preseason all-conference team. Another returning starter, Jalen Wilson (11.8 & 7.9), will miss the Champions Classic after drawing a four-game suspension for an arrest on DUI charges. No Michigan State returnee averaged double figures in scoring last season. However, Northeastern transfer Tyson Walker should provide punch after averaging 18.8 & 4.8 APG while also being named the CAAs top defender. Max Christie (24.0 & 10.1 in HS) is the top addition among freshmen and will play along the wing with long-range marksman Gabe Brown (42% on three-pointers). A late-season push enabled Michigan State to earn its 23rd consecutive NCAA Tournament bid a year ago before it finished an uncustomary 15-13. Tom Izzo enters his 27th season as head coach. Izzo should have an NCAA tourney team by year's end but Kansas is the MUCH better team here on Nov 9. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-21 | Toledo -4 v. Valparaiso | Top | 69-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Toledo at 7:00 ET. The Toledo Rockets of the MAC and Valparaiso Beacons (former Crusaders) of the MVC meet Tuesday in college hoops at the Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, In. The Rockets won the MAC last season at 15-4 but lost in the MCA tourney so missed the NCAAs (finished 21-9). The now-Beacons have a rich tradition (can you say the Drew family) but won just 10 games last year (18 losses), as they enter Year Six under head coach Matt Lottich.
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11-09-21 | Belmont v. Ohio +3.5 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Ohio U at 7:00 ET. The Belmont Bruins and Ohio Bobcats meet Tuesday in college hoops at the Convocation Center in Athens, Oh. (I know it well!). The Belmont Bruins are coming off a 26-win season but losing in the OVC tourney cost the Bruins an NCAA bid. The Ohio Bobcats finished a modest 9-5 in MAC play but surprised most by winning the MAC tourney and then upset 4th-seed Virginia 62-58 in the first round of the "Big Dance." Ohio would lose its next game 72-58 to Creighton but no one was complaining in Athens. Belmont is used to winning, having won 20-plus games in 15 of the last 16 seasons (exception was a 19-win season), with EIGHT trips to the Big Dance. The Bruins return all five starters from last season, starting with the 6-11 Nick Muszynski (15.0 & 5.6), guards Smith 12,7), Wood (11.3) and Murphy (10.9 & 5.8 APG) plus the 6-8 Hollander (9.3 & 4.7). 6th-man, the 6-6 Sheppard (10.5), is also back. Ohio guard Preston (15.7-7.3-7.3) left for the NBA (1st Ohio player picked in the draft since Brandon Hunter is 2003) but PG Sears (8.5 & 3.3 APG) plus perimeter players Roderick (12.4) and McDay (10.2) also return. Up front, the 6-8 Vander Plas (12.8 & 5.8) and the 6-8 Wilson (14.5 & 8.7) are still around. I have the utmost respect for Belmont but this Ohio U team is 'sneaky' good. In fact, Ohio ended last season on a 10-2 ATS run, including 6-1 as an underdog. "The Convo" will be 'rocking' tonight. Grab any points available. Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-21 | Bears +7 v. Steelers | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi bears at 8:15 ET. Chicago Bears opened 3-2 (promising start) but has since lost THREE in a row. Some good news is head coach Matt Nagy is set to return to the sidelines Monday night following a one-game absence in the NFL's COVID-19 protocol and the BETTER news is the likely return of RB David Montgomery, who was back at practice this week after mending from a knee injury he sustained in Week 4. The Steelers opened 1-3 but have now won THREE in a row, outscoring opponents 65-49 during their three-game winning streak.
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11-08-21 | Nets v. Bulls -1.5 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Chi Bulls at 8:10 ET The 7-3 Brooklyn Nets are in the midst of a six-game road trip (longest of the season) and visit Chicago tonight after winning at Detroit and Toronto, extending the team's overall winning streak to FIVE in a row. The Bulls opened the season 6-1 but are coming off consecutive losses against the Philadelphia 76ers.
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11-07-21 | Hornets +5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* 'Late Show' play is on the Cha Hornets at 9:10 ET. the Charlotte Hornets began the season with a 3-0 record but they've tailed off since then and visit Staples Center tonight just 5-5, after getting blown out 140-110 in Sacramento Friday night. As all know, the Clippers began the season without Kawhi (he may miss the entire season) and opened 1-4. However, the Clippers have returned to their winning ways on the strength of more consistent defensive play. Los Angeles has held opponents to an average of 98 points a contest over the last three games, wins over the Thunder and back-to-back victories on the road against the Minnesota Timberwolves. That said, OKC and Minnesota are not exactly a 'Murderer's Row' of opponents. Miles Bridges (22.7 & 7.7) is enjoying a 'career year' early on for Charlotte, as his average over his first three seasons was 10.6 PPG. Bridges is joined by the impressive trio of Ball (19.9-5.7-7.0), Hayward (18.1-4.7-3.6) and Oubre (12.5 & 4.50). Plumlee has started all 10 games at center, chipping in 6.5 & 7.9. Charlotte has reached 100 points in all except two of its 10 games. The Hornets check in as the NBA's highest scoring team, averaging 114.2 PPG, but are allowing a league-high 117.4 PPG. As expected, George (27.9-8.1-4.9) leads the way for the Clippers, with PG Jackson (16.8-3.9-4.1) SG Bledsoe (8.8-3.4-4.3) and center Zubac (8.9 & 6.6) also starting all eight games. Jackson has heated up in averaging 21 points a contest during L.A.'s three-game winning streak plus Kennard (11.1) and Mann (10.4) are both averaging double digits off the bench. The Hornets have struggled defensively this year (to say the least) but they catch a break facing this LA offense which is averaging only 105.4 PPG (ranked 19th). Paul George and the Clippers have been strong defensively (102.1 PPG ranks 6th), but I think the home side gets caught flat-footed here in the opener of its six-game homestand. The game marks the return of LaMelo Ball to his hometown. The second-year pro out of nearby Chino Hills played for the first time in Los Angeles last season, back-to-back games against the Los Angeles Lakers and Clippers, both losses. However, this weekend will be the first time Ball plays in L.A. with fans in attendance. I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-21 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 210 | Top | 94-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on SA/OKC Over at 7:10 ET. The San Antonio Spurs visit OKC off a 102-89 win Friday in Orlando, marking the second time this season the Spurs have defeated the Magic. San Antonio is 3-6 on the season and the Thunder check in at 2-6. OKC is also coming off a win, 107-104 over the Lakers in Los Angeles on Thursday. Oklahoma City wrapped up a three-game California road trip 1-2 after a blowout loss in San Francisco to the Warriors and a close loss in L.A. to the Clippers. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (9.7) missed all three games of a road trip with a balky right knee, before returning in the last two. Walker (11.2) started in his place, joining Murray (18.4-8.1-8.5), Johnson (15.6 & 5.8), Poeltl (13.9 & 9.7) and White (13.7 & 5.7 APG). However, Poeltl will miss here, as he has entered the NBA's health and safety protocols and is expected to miss several games, PG Gilgeous-Alexander (23.5-4.9-3.9) leads OKC, joined by three others who have started all eight games. However, none are household names in SF Dort (12.4 & 3.6), PF Bazley (11.1 & 6.3) and SG Gidley (10.5-6.0-6.1). The Thunder are rebuilding after losing the entire core of players that led them into the NBA Finals Against the Cavaliers back in 2012. The Thunder are off a big 107-104 road win at the Lakers and they'll be eager to make it two in a row here. That game was played Thursday, so OKC has had time to 'come down from that high' and is well rested. This year's version of the Spurs is running a free-flowing offense (108.9 PPG ranks 13th) and defense is no longer a priority (107.9 PPG ranks 16th). Yes, the Spurs clamped down on Orlando but I expect both of these teams to be in the 110s in this one. Go Over! Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-21 | Packers v. Chiefs OVER 54.5 | Top | 7-13 | Loss | -106 | 123 h 28 m | Show |
I was going to use this game as my 10* O/U Game of the Year but then Rodgers was ruled out. I would reccomend a "no play." I am not offering this play for sale. Larry |
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11-07-21 | Chargers -1 v. Eagles | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 77 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:05 ET. The LA Chargers opened 4-1 but are hoping to hit the reset button after consecutive losses 38-6 at Baltimore and 27-24 at home vs New England. The Chargers visit the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday, as the 3-5 Eagles return home for the first time since a 28-22 defeat against Tampa Bay on Oct 14. Since then, they lost 33-22 on the road to the Las Vegas Raiders, then posted a 44-6 victory at the 0-8 Detroit Lions last week. The 4-3 Chargers are a half-game back of the Raiders in the AFC West (Den and KC are 4-4), while the 3-5 Eagles trail the first-place Cowboys, who are 6-1 (7-0 ATS!). The NFC East was referred to as the NFC 'Least' in 2020, as Washington took the division with a 7-9 record, but the Cowboys are having 'none of that' so far in 2021.
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11-07-21 | Patriots v. Panthers +4 | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -114 | 97 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET. The New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers are both 4-4 and square off in this AFC/NFC matchup in Charlotte. The Pats are in Year 2 of the post-Brady era and in Year 1 of what the team hopes will be the Mac Jones era. New England opened 1-3 but has gone 3-1 its last four games, averaging a healthy 33.8 PPG. In contrast, Carolina jumped out to a surprising 3-0 start but followed with FOUR straight losses, before getting back to .500 with a 19-13 win last Sunday in Atlanta. |
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11-06-21 | San Diego State v. Hawaii +7.5 | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 36 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* CFB 'Late Show' is on Hawaii at 11:00 ET. The San Diego State Aztecs travel to 'paradise' for a Saturday game with Hawaii's Rainbow Warriors. SDSU opened the season 7-0, climbing imto the AP-25 rankings, with key wins over Utah (33-31), San Jose St (19-13 in 2 OTs) and Air Force (20-14). However, the Aztecs lost 30-20 last Saturday at home to Fresno St and fell out of the AP top-25. Maybe surprisingly, the Aztecs were ranked 24th in the first CFP ranking of the season (released this past Tuesday). Hawaii (4-5) has already played nine games and is hardly concerned with rankings but is just trying to get back to .500 with a win. Hawaii will play 13 games this season and bowl eligibility is a real possibility. The SDSU situation at QB is hardly a settled matter, although it looks like Johnson, who has started the last two games, has taken over from Brookshire. Neither have put up impressive numbers and it doesn't help that the SDSU receiving corps' leading receiver has only 17 catches. RB Bell has 66 yards on 4.8 YPC with 6 TDs and its running game 'drives' the offense, averaging 200.1 YPG (34th). The Aztecs are averaging 29.6 PPG, which is more than enough when the team's defense is holding opponents to 17.5 PPG (12th) on 305.1 YPG (also 12th). Hawaii QB Cordeiro is completing just 55.4% but has thrown for 1,706 yards with 10 TDs. Hawaii has nice balance, averaging 257.9 YPG passing and 157.7 YPG on the ground. The RB tandem of Hunter (558 yards / 7.2 YPC) and Parson (433 yards / 5.3 YPC / 6 TDs) is joined by all-purpose back Turner, who has 299 rushing yards (5.8 YPC and 7 TDs) plus is the team's leading receiver wit 52 catches (3 TDs). WR Mardner has 33 catches on 18.6 YPC with 3 TDs. The Hawaii defense is THE problem, allowing 33.9 PPG (114th) on 461.1 YPG (117th). Many fall into the trap of playing on a team that has opened with a winning streak of say six or seven games, coming off its first loss, assuming a bounce back. However, that is often NOT the case and I think the stage is set for a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. This will be San Diego State’s THIRD road trip in four games and considering the opposite direction of travel, I believe there is a strong chance that the Aztecs could 'slip up' for a second straight game. Hawaii is 3-1 at home and note that in its three contests vs FBS opponents, the Hawaii defense is allowing 25.0 PPG, more than EIGHT points less than its season average. Grab those points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Tennessee +2.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. The Kentucky Wildcats opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryant era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. Losing the physical battle at No. 1 Georgia is one thing but doing so two weeks later at Mississippi State is another thing. The Wildcats lost 31-17 last Saturday in Starkville. Kentucky is aiming for a strong November that would put it in position for a good bowl berth. Head coach Mark Stoops didn't mince words when asked about last week's 31-17 loss at Mississippi State, "Played like crap," he said. "Not very many good things this past week for sure. Fell short in all areas. Not very pleased with our performance. Rough day at the office. They played harder than us, they were more physical." Josh Heupel replaced Scott Frost at UCF and wemt 28-8 over three seasons, as his offense averaged 43.2, 43.4 and 42.2 PPG in those individual seasons. This is his first season at Tennessee and the Vols opened 4-2 but then lost a close one at home to Ole Miss (31-26), before wearing down in the fourth quarter at Alabama, allowing the game's final 21 points in a 52-24 loss. The Vols had last weekend off and now travel to Lexington to take on longstanding rival Kentucky. QB Hooker is a true dual threat, completing 68.7% for 1,578 yards with 17 TDs and just 2 INTS. He adds 416 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and 4 TDs. RB Evans has 516 yards on 6.4 YPC with 6 TDs, as the Vols are averaging 225.4 YPG (10th) on 5.0 YPC. WRs Jones (31 catches / 14.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Tillman (30 catches / 14.9 / 4 TDs) are Hooker's best targets. The Vols are averaging a healthy 37.4 PPG (17th) but allow 26.5 PPG (71st). Kentucky QB Levis had a VERY poor game against Miss St (just 150 yards and three INTs) but has had a decent season (66.3% for 1,476 yards with 14 TDs and 9 INTs). RB Rodrigeuz has run for 809 yards (6.0 YPC / 5 TDs) and WR Robinson (58 catches / 11.1 YPC / 5 TDs) represent Kentucj\kty's key offensive performers. Kentucky averages PPG (27.0 PPG), 10 PPG less than Tennessee but its defense allows 20.8 PPG (34th) on 335.6 YPG (34th). Here's the history of this series. Kentucky won last year's meeting 34-7 in Knoxville, so the Wildcats are looking for their first back-to-back wins over the Volunteers since 1976-77. The Vols have won 31 of the last 34 games with the Wildcats and are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Knoxville. Kentucky loses its third straight, while Heupel's team gets a much-needed win. The Vols finish with three straight home games, beginning with Georgia. However, a win here and then over South Alabama and Vandy would give Heupel a seven-win season and a chance to win eight games by winning a bowl game. Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Michigan State v. Purdue +3 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 46 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Purdue at 3:30 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and then moved on to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. However, as the Spartans and Boilermakers meet Saturday at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Michigan St comes in 8-0, including 5-0 in the Big Ten. The Spartans are currently ranked 5th in the AP, the first time Michigan St has been ranked in the top-5 since 2015 (Michigan St made its lone CFP appearance that season). Purdue enters 5-3 (3-2 in the Big Ten but reminded all of its 'Giant-Killer' reputation by beating then-No. 2 Iowa on the road back on Oct 10, ending the Hawkeyes' 12-game winning streak. Michigan State is fresh off a big matchup vs Michigan. In that one, the Spartans pulled off an epic four-point victory, 37-33. The term 'epic' is NOT an overstatement, as MSU trailed by 16 points (30-14) in the third quarter. Michigan St QB Thorne had a modest 196 yards passing plus two picks but freshman RB Kenneth Walker ran for 197 yards and a whopping FIVE touchdowns. Thorne has had a solid season, completing 61.5% for 1,897 yards (15 TDs and 6 INTs) but Walker is having a Heisman-caliber season. He leads the nation with 1,194 yards on 6.8 YPC with 14 TDs. Thorne has a trio of WRs, all averaging 15.0-plus YPC. The trio consists of Reed (33 / 19.5 YPC / 5 TDs), Nailor (31 / 18.9 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mosley (21 / 15.3 YPC / 0 TDs). A quick look at the Michigan St defense shows them allowing 20.5 PPG (30th) but also 424.4 YPG (103rd!). The question may be, can Purdue's offense take advantage of a MSU defense that has allowed a lot of yards? O'Connell has taken over at QB for Plummer (7 TDs / 0 INTs) and while he's completing 71.0%, he's thrown nine TDs and eight INTs. Purdue has no one within 'miles' of Walker, as Doerue leads with just 363 yards (3.9 YPC / one TD). Purdue is averaging 80.5 YPG (127th) on 2.5 YPC. However, Purdue can move the ball through the air with WR Bell (53 / 14.8 YPC / 4 TDs) being among the best WRs in the nation. TE Durham has 36 catches (4 TDs) plus WRs Wright and Anthony have combined for 60 catches and four TDs. For Purdue to pull the upset, its defense will have to be the reason. The Boilermakers are allowing 17.1 PPG (10th) on 315.6 YPG (18th). Michigan St is off its HUGE comeback win over hated-Michigan and now must take on the 'SPOILERMAKERS.' After beating No. 2 Iowa on Oct 10 as an unranked team, Purdue has now beaten a team ranked in the top-two of the AP Top 25 as an unranked team for the NINTH time in program history, more than TWICE as many as any other school. Naturally, I'll take the points but I'm sending out an Upset Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Auburn v. Texas A&M -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Marquee Matchup is on Texas A&M at 3:30 ET. The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday, with 6-2 Auburn getting ranked No. 13 and 6-2 Texas A&M settling in right behind at No. 14. As fate would have it, the Tigers will be in College Station this Saturday to take on the Aggies, a contest which is essentially an elimination game in the SEC West. Auburn (6-2, 3-1 SEC) trails Alabama (7-1, 4-1) for the division lead, with Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2), Ole Miss (6-2, 3-2) and Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2) all fighting to stay in the race as well. However, only Auburn and Alabama control their destinies to earn a spot in the SEC title game on Dec 4. If Auburn and Alabama win the rest of their league games heading into their meeting on the final day of the regular season on Nov 27, the winner of the Iron Bowl would head to Atlanta to play top-ranked and East Division champ Georgia. That said, this is definitely a "marquee matchup," as the Tigers and Aggies have both turned their seasons around after coming close to taking major steps backward this season. Texas A&M was ranked 7th in the nation when it lost 20-10 to Arkansas on Sep 25 and 15th when it lost its next game, 26-22 at Miss St. The Aggies fell out of the rankings but turned their season around with a 41-38 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama on Oct 9. A 35-14 win at Missouri and a 44-14 win over South Carolina have followed and as noted above, the Aggies are now No. 14 in the 1st CFP rankings. QB Calzada (just 55.3% for 1,364 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs) is no star but like Nix, he is backed by a strong running game. Spiller (761 yards / 6.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Achane (608 yards / 7.1 YPC / 5 TDs) lead a running attack that averages 188.3 YPG. A&M has no superstars among its receiving corps but WR Smith has 31 catches for six TDs and TE Wydermyer has 25 catches, averaging 14.1 YPC with four TDs. A&M's defense is actually better than Auburn's allowing 16.1 PPG (5th). A&M felt it was 'robbed' of that 4th CFP berth last season but knows a 'Final 4' appearance is NOT in the cards here in 2021, after two losses. However, A&M can still cap an impressive season if it keeps winning, not to mention spoil Auburn's shot at entering the Iron Bowl with a chance at the SEC West title (see above). A&M has played the tougher sked (#26 vs #53) and while Auburn is on a 10-18 run as a road underdog, A&M is 15-7 ATS at home since 2018, including 4-0 here in 2021. Auburn caught a 'tired' Ole Miss team last Saturday but that will NOT be the case here, as A&M is off a bye. A&M wins comfortably, by double digits! Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-21 | Army v. Air Force -2.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Air Force at 11:30 am ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights opened 4-0 in 2021 but if one looked more closely, the teams Army beat had a combined 3-13 (.188) SU record. However, Army has lost three straight since its perfect start, most recently to Wake Forest in a 70-56 final. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The Falcons opened the 2021 season 6-1 (lone loss was 49-45 at Utah St), before losing 20-14 to a then-unbeaten SD State team. The two service academies meet Saturday at "Jerry's House" in Arlington, with kickoff scheduled 30 minutes before high noon ET. Both teams own dominant running games, as Army rushes for 312.3 YPG (3rd) on 4.9 YPC, while Air Forces average 318.4 YPG (1st) on YPC. Neither team is effective throwing the ball and basically, passes are not a real part of either team's playbook. The big difference between the two teams is on the defensive side of the ball, as Army is allowing 27.7 PPG (80th), while Air Force is holding opponents to just 16.8 PPG (7th). Even more impressively, Air Force ranks THIRD nationally in allowing just 281.6 YPG. Air Force was 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS from 2006-16 but Army has won THREE of the last four meetings (also 3-1 ATS) but I won't ignore the fact that Air Force is a MONEY-MAKING 23-8 ATS over its last 31 non-conference games. The winner here claims the Commander-in-Chief's trophy and my bet says that Air Force takes it. Lay the short price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-21 | Hornets +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 110-140 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cha Hornets at 10:10 ET. The Charlotte Hornets began the season with a 3-0 record but they've tailed off since then and head to Sacramento just 5-4. However, Charlotte head coach James Borrego said those early outcomes should be remembered for some of the things that were learned. 4-4 Sacrameto topped the New Orleans Pelicans 112-99 on Wednesday night, as the Kings won a home game for the first time this season. Miles Bridges (24.1 & 8.0) is enjoying a 'career year,' as his average over his first three seasons was 10.6 PPG. He racked up 32 points, reaching the 30-point mark for the fourth time this season in Wednesday's 114-92 loss at Golden St. Bridges is joined by the impressive trio of Ball (19.4-6.0-6.3), Hayward (17.3-5.0-3.8) and Oubre (12.9 & 4.6). Charlotte has reached 100 points in all except two of its nine games, after scoring a season-low total in Wednesday night's loss (see above). However, the Hornet's still check in as the NBA's highest scoring team, averaging 114.7 PPG, while also shooting a league-high 39.6% on threes. The Kings own a terrific guard trio. Fox (17.9 & 6.5 APG) and Haliburton 13.1 & 5.5 APG) are starting, with Hield coming off the bench to average 16.8 PPG. The Kings will have to see if there's any fallout from the league regarding center Richaun Holmes' second-half ejection Wednesday night. He was restrained from team staff members prior to exiting the court. He's an undersized center averaging 15.0 & 9.9. Then there is SF Harrison Barnes, who has a 14.0 PPG average over his 11 seasons but has been spectacular so far, averaging 23.3 PPG and 9.5 RPG. The Kings remain an enigma, as the team's Wednesday win over the Pelicans was the FIRST time in their eight games that the Kings held an opponent under 100 points (99). In fact, half (2 of 4) of the Kings' wins have come over New Orleans. Charlotte should come in confident, as it has won its last FIVE meetings with Sacramento. Play the Hornets. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-21 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +3.5 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 82 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights Play is on Boston College 7:30 ET. A pair of 4-4 teams square off Friday night when the Virginia Tech Hokies and Boston College Eagles meet Friday at Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill. Both have arrived at 4-4 taking different paths. Va Tech opened its season with a 17-10 upset of preseason No. 10 North Craolina and sat 3-1 before losing THREE in a row to Notre Dame, Pittsburgh and Syracuse, ALL at home. Va Tech ended its three-game slide with a 26-17 road win at Ga Tech. Boston College, in Jeff Hafley's second season (6-5 in his first), opened 4-0 but has since lost ALL four of its ACC games to fall to .500. The slide began with a near-upset of Clemson but the last three wins have come by scores of 33-7 (NC St), 28-14 (Louisville) and 21-6 (Syracuse). |
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11-05-21 | Grizzlies +1 v. Wizards | Top | 87-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mem Grizzlies at 7:10 ET. The Washington Wizards opened 5-1, the franchise's best start in 16 years. However, as they welcome the Grizzlies to the nation's capital, Washington is looking to shake off a two-game losing skid. Memphis is off back-to-back home wins against the Nuggets, winning 106-97 (Mon) and 108-106 (Wed). Both teams will take the floor with 5-3 records. To no one's surprise, Ja Morant (27.0-5.5-7.5) is setting the pace for Memphis early. Second-year wing Desmond Bane is elevating his play early on, helping fill the void with Dillon Brooks sidelined due to a broken hand. Bane has averaged 17.5 & 4.1, while shooting better than 41 percent from beyond the three-point arc on almost eight attempts per game. Guard Melton has also been a nice surprise, averaging 12.6 PPG. Then there is Jaren Jackson Jr, who is coming off a 2020-21 in which he missed all but 11 regular-season games due to injuries. The fourth-year forward is averaging 13.6 & 5.4, while scoring in double-figures in six of the Grizzlies' first eight games. The team's new starting center is Steven Adams and he's close to averaging a double-double (9.4 & 9.1). Washington's starting guard duo is Beal (24.4-5.7-4.9) and Dinwiddie (17.9-4.9-5.9). Then there's the "Lakers-East" trio of PF Harrell (18.0 & 9.9), SF Kuzma (14.1 & 9.9) and guard Caldwell-Pope (9.5 & 4.0). However, Washington comes into Friday's matchup with more than a few issues. Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant have not yet played this season and neither has a clear timetable to return. Davis Bertans is out indefinitely with an ankle injury, and now Kyle Kuzma is questionable for Friday after leaving Wednesday's game with an arm injury. I think Washington is going to take another step back here. Defending champion Milwaukee is coming to D.C. on Sunday, while Memphis will enjoy two whole nights off after this before a favorable home stretch starting with Minnesota on Monday. Scheduling (for both teams, in every sport) is always something I look at carefully when assessing a contest and this one favors Memphis in that department. Memphis is the play. Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons OVER 208.5 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference O/U Game of the Month is on Phi/Det Over at 7:10 ET. The Detroit Pistons have opened 1-6 and it's not difficult to figure out why. Detroit ranks dead-last in scoring (95.1 PPG), FG percentage (39.4%) and three-point percentage (26.7%). A difficult early schedule hasn't helped the cause and it won't get any easier in the short run, as the Pistons host Philadelphia on Thursday and Brooklyn on Friday. The Sixers have a different set of issues as they visit Detrouit but come to Motown 6-2, which includes a 110-102 victory over Detroit in Philadelphia last Thursday. Joel Embiid (20.6-8.7-4.3) had 18 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in his return to the lineup on Wednesday plus Seth Curry (17.1) scored 22 points and hit a crucial jumper late to lead the Philadelphia 76ers over the Chicago Bulls 103-98. Georges Niang (11.6 PPG coming off the bench in all eight games) added 18 points for the short-handed 76ers. All are aware of the Ben Simmons situation (personal reasons), who has missed all eight games, but Philadelphia was without starters Tobias Harris (health and safety protocols) and Danny Green (hamstring). The loss of Green is not a big deal but Harris was averaging 19.8-9.0-4.2. Maxey has started all eight games (alongside Curry) and is averaging 14.0 & 4.3 APG. Milton, who missed the first four games (averaged 13.0 PPG last season), has played the last four, averaging 10.3 PPG. Detroit has just three players scoring in double digits. That trio is comprised of frontcourt players Grant (16.8 & 5.0), Bey (14.1 & 7.9) and Olynyk (12.4 7 4.6), Seven more players have participated in all seven games, avergaing betwee 5.7 and 9.4 PPG. All eyes are on the top pick in the 2021 Draft, Cade Cunningham. He went 2-for-14 from the floor in his second appearance of the season against the Bucks. He's taken 14 three-point shots in his two games and missed EVERY one of them."That's part of his rust," head coach Casey said of the rookie, who sprained his ankle during training camp. "That's why we tried to get him some minutes toward the end, just to get some rust off the pipes." Here's the rub. Philadelphia has seemed adjust to playing without Ben Simmons in the lineup and is gunning for its fifth straight victory tonight. No reason to think that Philly can't match or excede the 112.0 PPG that the team has averaged in its four-game winning. After all, the Pistons have allowed 117 points in each of their last two games, including to a Milwaukee team that was missing regular starers Middleton, Holiday, Lopez and DiVincenzo. I expect Phily to score 155 points or more, meaning this game can go OVER even in the Pistons do no better than match their 95.0 PPG average. Note: The Pistons scored 102 opoints at Philadelphia on Oct 28. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-21 | Mavs v. Spurs +1 | Top | 109-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* 'Battle at The Alamo' is on the SA Spurs at 8:40 ET. The San Antonio Spurs need to shrug off their worst defensive performance of the young season when they return home to host the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday. The Spurs were routed 131-118 Monday at Indiana, as the Pacers shot 63.8 percent from the floor in the first half while building a 22-point lead at the break and never looked back. The Spurs have dropped five of their last six games, as they welcome the 4-3 Mavs to the Alamo City. It's the second game of a home-road back-to-back for Dallas, which began with a 125-110 defeat to the visiting Miami Heat on Tuesday. Doncic is one of the league's best, although his scoring is down some (24.0-7.7-7.1). Swingman Hardaway spent the better part of last season as the team's 6th-man but he started all seven games, averaging 13.9 PPG. Kristaps Porzingis, nicknamed the "Unicorn," has missed the last four games due to back tightness. Porzingis missed 29 of Dallas' 72 games last season due to his back issues and is off to a slow start even in the three games he has played. He is averaging 12.7 PPG (six below his career average) and is shooting 30.2 percent from the floor and 23.5 percent on three-pointers. His career averages are 44 percent on field goals and 36 percent on threes."We want him to be right," Mavs head coach Jason Kidd said of Porzingis. "If he's not right, he can't play. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (11.5) has missed all three games of San Antonio's just-concluded road trip with a balky right knee. He will be a game-time decision. Walker (12.7) has started in his place, joining Murray (17.6-7.6-8.5), Johnson (14.9 & 5.3), Poetl (13.9 & 9.7) and White (13.1 & 6.3 APG). This year's version of the Spurs is running a free-flowing offense (110.0 PPG ranks 13th) and should be able to outscore a Dallas team that is having offensive struggles. Dallas is averaging 100.0 PPG (28th) on 40.9% (29th). I had a play on Dallas last night and lost. I rarely "play on" a team one night, and then go against them the next, but there are exceptions to every rule. That's the case here. These contests really do need to be viewed and assessed individually and this is simply a bad spot for the scuffling Mavericks. They're dealing with several key injuries (Porzingis) and they're facing a Spurs team that returns home eager to bounce back after a 131-118 at Indiana on Monday. San Antonio is also playing with the immediate revenge factor here after falling 104-99 at Dallas on October 28th. That is significant, as dating to last year the Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last six in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. Spurs win in 'The Battle 4 Texas.' Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-21 | Raptors +3.5 v. Wizards | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Raptors at 7:10 ET. The Toronto Raptors are still without All Star Pascal Siakam, who is not expected back until mid-November. However, since the Raptors lost their season-opener 98-83 at home to the Wizards, they've won FIVE of their last seven games, including FOUR in a row. Toronto will be out to avenge that opening-night loss and extend their winning streak to five when they conclude a three-game road trip Wednesday night against the Washington Wizards. The Wizards lost 118-111 to the host Atlanta Hawks on Monday, snapping a three-game winning streak to fall to 5-2. Rookie Barnes (18.1 & 8.9) has been terrific for Toronto but he suffered a sprained right thumb late in Toronto's win Saturday night against the Indiana Pacers. His status for Wednesday is uncertain. SF Anunuby scored a career-best 36 points Monday in a 113-104 victory over the New York Knicks and leads the Raptors in scoring at 20.3 PPG (adds 5.6 RPG). VanVleet started slowly but is up to 17.0-5.5-7.4 and Trent (15.1 PPG) has been a consistent producer. Starting center Precious Achiuwa played only 17 minutes with two points and nine rebounds on Monday. He was replaced by Khem Birch, who had six points, eight rebounds, one blocked shot and two steals. However, Achiuwa is averaging 8.3 & 8.6 in a modest 23.5 MPG (pretty good). The Wizards are led by the guard duo of Beal (24.3-5.5-4.5) and Dinwiddie (18.8-4.7-5.3) plus a trio of former Lakers. PF Harrell (18.4 & 9.9), SF Kuzma (15.9 & 11.0) and guard Caldwell-Ppe (9.7) kinda makes the Wizards, the "Lakers-East!" The Wizards had starting point guard Spencer Dinwiddie, who did not play Thursday (rest), and starting center Daniel Gafford (right quadriceps contusion), who missed the two previous games, back in the lineup Monday. However, Washington had too many wasted possessions against the Hawks. Toronto has won with its defense, allowing just 100.3 PPG (3rd). The Raptors will remember that in their home loss to the Wizards, they held a team averaging 112.4 PPG (6th) to just 98 points. The Raptors come in on a four-game winning streak and have also won their last FOUR visits to the nation's capital. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-21 | Northern Illinois v. Kent State -3.5 | Top | 47-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* MAC Attack is on Kent St at 7:00 ET. MACtion began Tuesday night with three games and continues tonight with two more, as the Northern Illinois Huskies take on the Kent State Golden Flashes from Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio. NIU is led by third-year head coach Thomas Hammock, who went 5-7 in his first season and then 0-6 in the COVID-shortened 2002 season. However, NIU had nine starters back on offense and 10 on defense and the Huskies enter this contest on a five-game winning streak that has them at 6-2 overall, including 4-0 in the MAC-West. Kent's Sean Lewis is just 34 (youngest head coach at the FBS level) and after going 2-10 in his first season, led Kent to a Frisco Bowl win in 2019, as the team finished 7-6. Kent played just four games in 2020 (1-3) but while the Golden Flashes are just 4-4 in 2021, they are 3-1 and atop the MAC-East. This could be a MAC title game preview.
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11-02-21 | Braves v. Astros -122 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -122 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Note: This game is an "action play." I expect Garcia will start for Houston but one never knows for sure in the postseason these days. My 10* Game of the Month is on the Hou Astros at 8:09 ET. Plenty of drama set for tonight's Game 6. "America's Team" is looking to capture its SECOND World Series title since the Barves moved to Atlanta in 1966. Atlanta won the 1995 World Series, the ONLY time the Braves were able to "win it all" in their INCREDIBLE run of 14 consecutive division titles from 1991 through 2005 (excludes canceled 1994 strike season). Standing in Atlanta's way is Houston, "the team everyone loves to hate!" No sense wasting time explaining, ALL know the circumstances. Here's the set-up. The Braves won Game 1 in Houston, with the Astros rebounding to win Game 2. Atlanta then won Game 3 (my 10* Game of the Year) to take a 2-1 lead and then used a 'bullpen game" to eke out a 3-2 win in Game 4. That Game 4 win gave the Braves a 7-0 home record in the 2021 season and had a chance to clinch the series in Game 5. With Morton out, it was second straight bullpen game for the Braves but Atlanta's Adam Duvall's hit a grand slam in the bottom of the first to give the Braves a 4-0 lead. However, the Houston bats 'woke up,' after scoring a total of just two runs in Game 3 and 4 losses. A stream of timely hits turned the tide for Houston, which scored two runs in the 2nd and 3rd, then added three more in the 5th for a 7-5 lead. The Astros' 9-5 win sent the the series back to Houston. After splitting a pair of bullpen games, the Braves will turn to Max Fried to start Game 6. Fried went 17-6 in 2019, despite a 4.02 ERA. In 2020's COVID season, he made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, as the Braves won 10 of those 11 starts. Fried made 28 starts in 2021, going 14-7 with a 3.04 ERA, as the team went 18-10. Looking a little closer, the Braves won 10 of his last 11 regular season starts and then won BOTH of his first two postseason starts (1.50 ERA). However, Fried allowed five runs on eight hits (including two homers) in an 11-2 rout by the Los Angeles Dodgers on Oct 21 in Game 5 of the NLCS and then surrendered SIX runs on seven hits in five innings of a 7-2 shellacking by the Astros in Game 2 of the World Series. How is his confidence-level entering Game 6? Dusty Baker is well-liked and ranks 12th in career wins by a manger but the top-11 all have something Dusty doesn't. That's a World Series title. He notably managed the Giants when they blew a a 3-2 lead in the 2002 World Series against the Angels and then the following season, as the Cubs' manager, fell 'victim' to the infamous "Steve Bartman fiasco," as the Cubs let a 3-2 lead slip away against the Marlins in the NLCS. One criticism of Dusty is that he hasn't handled his pitching staffs well and he could be open to criticism again here, as instead of bringing back Urgquidy (on normal rest, off an excellent Game 2 effort), he's decided to go with Luis Garcia, on three days' rest. Garcia made just five appearances (one start) in 2020 and in only 12.1 IP, posted a 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He made 30 appearances (28 starts) in 2021 and was a solid part of the rotation. However, in his two postseason starts, he was 'bombed,' lasting just 3.2 innings while allowing 10 ERs on seven hits and six walks. That's an ERA of 24.55!! However, Garcia pitched 5.2 scoreless inning (one hit with a 7-1 KW ratio) in Houston's series-clinching Game 6 win over Boston and against Anderson in Game 3 of the World Series, allowed one run in 3.2 innings (Anderson and the Atlanta stadff was near-perfect). A 'quick hook' could be on tap Tuesday for Garcia but we'll see. The Astros are the 47th team to go down 3-1 in the World Series and they're hoping to become just the SEVENTH to bounce back and win. I'm NOT thrileld about the Garcia decision but I just DON'T trust the Braves and their long-standing 'flops' in the postseason going all the way back to 1991. As much as I've liked Fried, his last two outing are REALLY troubling. It's easy to dislike the Astros but the team is relentless. EIGHT of the Houston's nine postseason wins in 2021 have come by four runs or more. Is it finally going to be Dusty's time. My bet is we will get to see if in fact it will, because this series is headed to a Game 7 on Wednesday. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-21 | Heat v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 125-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavs at 7:40 ET. Miami made an improbable run to the NBA Finals in 2020 but last year, aftera modest 42-30 sesson, got swept 4-0 by the Milwaukee Bucks (eventual champs) in the first round. However, the Heat have come out like gangbusters this season, opening 5-1 (only Chicago, yes Chicago, is better at 6-1). The Mavericks welcome the Heat to Dallas with a 6-4 overall record, including a perfect 3-0 mark at home. Swingman Jimmy Butler (25.3-7.0-5.5) is healthy and playing great, as is the ever-improving Bamm Abedayo (20.6 & 14.0). However, major addition, PG Lowry (from Toronto), is off to a sow start, averaging only 8.4 PPG (in 31 minutes), shooting an 'ugly' 33.3% overall (26.9% on threes). Picking up the slack is third-year gaur Herro, who is averaging 22.0-6.5-4.5 off the bench. Doncic is one of the league's best, although his scoring is down some (22.5-8.5-7.97). Swingman Hardaway spent the better part of last season as the team's 6th-man but he started all six games, averaging 13.3 PPG. Kristaps Porzingis, nicknamed the "Unicorn," has missed the last three games due to back tightness. Porzingis missed 29 of Dallas' 72 games last season due to his back issuea and is off to a slow start even in the three games he has played. He is averaging 12.7 PPG (six below his career average) and is shooting 30.2 percent from the floor and 23.5 percent on three-pointers. His career averages are 44 percent on field goals and 36 percent on threes."We want him to be right," Mavs head coach Jason Kidd said of Porzingis. "If he's not right, he can't play. A lot has gone right for Miami so far, but I am still not sold on the Heat being quite as good as they've looked so far. Dallas will need Porzingis to get healthy for the Mavs to be a strong playoff contender but I believe the Mavs are in a great spot for a win tonight as a small home underdog. Good luck...Larry |
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11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 7:40 ET. |
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11-01-21 | Spurs v. Pacers OVER 219 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Week is on SA/Ind Over at 7:10 ET The Spurs snapped a four-game losing streak with a 102-93 win in Milwaukee on Saturday. San Antonio's defense carried it to the victory, which was also its first on the road this season. The Spurs limited Milwaukee's attack to 21 points below its per-game scoring average coming in and avenged a 10-point loss at home to the Bucks on Oct 23. 2-4 San Antonio will visit Indiana on Monday to take on the struggling Indiana Pacers. Indiana had made NINE postseasons in its previous 10 years before missing out last season with a 34-38 record. Now, the Pacers have opened 1-6 and carry a four-game losing streak into Monday's game after a 97-94 loss at home to Toronto on Saturday. The Spurs started the same five players in each of their first four games but McDermott (11.5) missed his second straight game with right knee soreness in Saturday's win and will not play on Monday. Walker (13.2) will take his place, joining Murray (17.7-8.5-8.8), Johnson (15.8 & 5.3), Poetle (14.3 & 10.3) and White (13.2 & 6.2 APG). Indiana PG Brogdon (23.4-7.0-7.5) did not play for Indiana in Saturday's loss (hamstring strain), which was the second game of a road-home back-to-back.He is questionable for this one. Domantas Sabonis (20.9-11.1-4.1) led the Pacers with 22 points and 14 rebounds but missed a 3-pointer in the final seconds that would have tied the game against Toronto. Justin Holiday (8.6) added 16 points, rookie Chris Duarte (17.7 & 4.7) had 12, Jeremy Lamb (10.0) scored 11 points and center Myles Turner (12.4 & 7.4) had 10 points and 11 rebounds. Caris LeVert saw the court for the first time this season and scored 15 points in 16 minutes for Indiana, all in the first half. LeVert is on a minutes restriction because of a stress fracture in his back that forced him to miss the Pacers' first six games but should be able to give Indiana a good 20 minutes in this one. Non-conference matchups aren't always the most intense on the defensive side and I expect that to be the case here. Dating to last season though Indiana has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine after a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points. The Spurs had lost four in a row prior to their win over the defending champs and won't be taking anything for granted in this one, as they must feel this is a game that they can win outright as well. I expect both teams to push the pace from the opening tip, resulting in an O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 101 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Vikings at 8:20 ET. The hiring of Mike McCarthy prior to the 2020 season was viewed as a "big deal" for Dallas. "America's Team" won THREE Super Bowl titles in a four-year span from 1992 through 1995 but has had little to show over the next 2 1/2-decades. QB Dak Prescott went down with a season-ending-injury in the team's fifth game in 2020 and even though the NFC East winner (Washington) was just 7-9, the Cowboys fell short with a 6-10 record. Entering this season, Dallas had made just 10 playoff appearances in the last 25 seasons, with zero appearances in the NFC championship game, no less a Super Bowl appearance or win. |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 59 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U play is on TB/NO Over at 4:25 ET. Full, detailed analysis by Friday afternoon by 3:00 ET |
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10-31-21 | Patriots +5.5 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NE Patriots at 4:05 ET. The Pats lost Tom Brady to Tampa Bay for the 2020 season and while New England fell to 7-9, everyone knows that Brady led the Bucs to a Super Bowl win (his seventh). New England had hoped Cam Newton could regain his MVP form but that was NOT the case and in the 2021 draft took Alabama QB Mac Jones (more on him in a bit). The Pats outplayed but lost to the Dolphins in Week 1 and after a win over the Jets, got thumped at home 28-13 by the Saints. The Pats travel to LA for a game with Chargers, coming off their best effort of the season, albeit against the haliess Jets. |
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10-31-21 | Steelers +4.5 v. Browns | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers opened with a 23-16 upset at Buffalo in Week 1 but then lost THREE in a row, However, the Steelers have rebounded to win two in a row to get back to 3-3. The Browns led KC almost the entire game in Week 1 but lost a close one. The Browns have since won four of six. The AFC South is a talented division in 2021, as the Bengals and Ravens are each 5-2. Big Ben is supposedly washed up but let me note that he's thrown for an average of 252.5 YPG so far and his career average in 239 games is 258.3 YPG. He has just seven TDs and four INTs with a QB rating of 88.0 but he's never had great QB ratings (career mark is 93.8). Alabama rookie RB Najee Harris has 388 yards rushing (3.8 YPC) and has added 34 catches, which is tied for 1st on the team, In Pittsburgh's two wins, he's run for 203 yards and a TD plus caught eight passes and another TD. The Steelers answered a sluggish start to the season by winning their two games before heading into the bye week. The Pittsburgh players showed a little 'pep in their step' in Wednesday's practice but WR Chase Claypool had a hunch as to why. "It might be because of the bye week that we have more energy and more fun, or it's because we're playing the Browns," Claypool said. "Either way, we're having more fun out there." Claypool (22 catches / 16.3 YPC / 3 TDs) is expected back after missing Pittsburgh's last game and will join fellow WR Johnson (34 catches / 3 TDs). This is NOT a great Pittsburgh D but it's solid, allowing 22.0 PPG (12th) on 35.2 YPG (13th). Baker Mayfield led the Browns to a 10-6 record, as the team ended a 17-year playoff drought in 2020. Mayfield rebounded from a 2019 season in which he had 22 TDs and 21 INTs, by improving to a 26-8 TD/INT ratio. Cleveland then recorded a 48-37 victory at Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game on Jan 10. Mayfield has not put up the same kind of numbers here in 2021 (like 2020), throwing just six TDs with three INTs. The Cleveland running game is No. 1 in the NFL at 170.4 YPG. Chubb (523 yards on 5.8 YPC with four TDs) missed the team's last two games but is back here. However, Hunt (361 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs) missed last week as well and remains out. However, D'Ernest Johnson erupted for 146 yards with a TD in his first career start a week ago Thursday and is ready to support Chubb. Cleveland's receiving corps is far from healthy, as Hunt actually leads the team with 20 catches. TE Njoku has 17 catches, averaging a healthy 16.7 YPC but has just one TD catch. The Cleveland defense is allowing only 295.6 YPG (2nd) but allows more points than one would expect (23.6 PPG ranks 18th). Mayfield returns here after his injured left (non-throwing) shoulder and torn labrum kept him out of Cleveland's 17-14 victory over the Denver Broncos back on Oct 21. Chubb, who has missed Cleveland's last two games, is also back. Many are down on Pittsburgh but I'm a fan of Mike Tomlin, who has consistently gotten the most out of the hands he's been dealt. Heading into last year's playoff game, the Steelers had dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Can you say "pay back?" Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-21 | North Carolina +4 v. Notre Dame | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* 'Signature' LEGEND Play is on North Carolina at 7:30 ET. North Carolina went 8-4 last season and despite losing some key offensive performers (more later), the Tar Heels returned Heisman-hopeful QB Sam Howll and 10 defensive starters. North Carolina opened No. 10 in the AP's preseason poll, the school's highest preseason ranking since being ranked No. 7 at the start of the 1997 season (in Mack Browns' first tenure at Chapel Hill). However, the Tar Heels 'limp' into South Bend unranked with a HUGELY disappointing 4-3. Notre fDame opened 10-0 last season before losing 34-10 to Clemson in the ACC championship. The Irish still made CFB's 'Final 4,' but lost 31-14 to Alabama in a contest in which the final score hardly reflected Alabama's domination of Notre Dame. Brian Kelly's team entered the current season with just three returning starters on offense and six on defense but was ranked No. 9 in the preseason (name recognition helps, huh?) The Irish have struggled at times this season (more below) but are currently 6-1 and hold down the No. 11 spot in the AP's latest poll.
Notre Dame is off a solid 31-16 win over USC last Saturday but the Irish have lost to their toughest opponent (24-13 at home to now-No. 2 Cincinnati) plus have won THREE games by just three points, over FSU in OT, Toledo and Va Tech. The team's 41-13 win at Wisconsin looks great on paper but Notre Dame actually trailed 13-10 in the fourth quarter of that contest. QB Jack Coan (Wisconsin transfer) has been OK but surely nothing special. He's completing 63.5% for 1,397 yards with 11 TDs and four INTs plus gets very little help from a running game that averages 106.7 YPG (117th!), after averaging 211 YPG on the ground last season. TE Mayer leads the team with 37 catches with WRs Austin and Davis hauling in just 22 and 20, respectively. The defense is allowing 23.1 PPG (not bad) but also not up to the standards of the previous three seasons (19.7, 17.9 and 18.2 PPG). Here's the rub. This game is really a 'must-win" for North Carolina. The Tar Heels host 7-0 Wake Forest (No. 13) for a Homecoming game next Saturday and then play at 6-1 Pitt (No. 17) the following weekend. Those games won't mean much if the Tar Heels fall to 4-4 here. Not many teams have gone into South Bend and come away with a win in recent years (Bearcats are the exception) but this Howell-led offense is MORE than capable of outscoring the Coan-led offense, which gets NOTHING from its running game. Upset Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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10-30-21 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* SEC Game of the Week is on Miss St at 7:00 ET. The Kentucky Wildcats (6-1, 4-1 SEC) opened 6-0 in 2021 for the first time since 1950 (Bear Bryany era) but their perfect season 'died' in Athens with a 30-13 loss at No. 1 Georgia. The Wildcats got last weekend off (probably a good thing) and Saturday night travel to Starkville to take on the Mississippi St Bulldogs (4-3, 2-2). |
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10-30-21 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 7-27 | Win | 100 | 96 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Wisconsin (12:00 ET). Iowa's Kirk Ferentz arrived in Iowa City way back in 1999 and after going 1-10 and 3-9 in his first two seasons, has been a steady, consistent winner. The Hawkeyes opened 2020 with back-to-back losses (by four points and one point) but then won SIX in a row, going 5-1 ATS with an average MOV of 21.8 PPG. Iowa earned an 18th bowl bid under Ferentz in 2020 but the Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID. Iowa opened the season No. 18 in the AP's preseason poll and ripped off SIX straight wins, three over ranked teams. Iowa was the nation's No. 2 ranked team when it saw its 12-game winning (10-2 ATS) streak end with a 24-7 at Purdue on Oct 16. The 6-1 Hawkeyes had a welcome bye last Saturday and visit Camp Randall on Saturday to face 4-3 Wisconsin. Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers had already lost TWICE and fallen out of the top-25. The Badgers lost 38-17 at home to Michigan to open October to fall to 1-3. Head coach Paul Chryst is in his seventh year at Madison and entered the season 56-19 with six bowl appearances (5-1) but the 2021 season was on the verge of slipping away. However, the Badgers have rebounded to win THREE in a row, including last Saturday's impressive 30-13 road win over then-No. 25 Purdue (fresh off its win over Iowa). Iowa relies on an outstanding defense, which is allowing 14.6 PPG (3rd) on 301.1 YPG 12th), while forcing a nation-best 16 takeaways. Those takeaways have helped a poor Iowa offense to average 28.0 PPG. Iowa is averaging only 311.1 YPG (120th), including 116.9 YPG (103rd) on the ground. QB Spencer Petras completes just 59.5% for 1,333 yards with nine TDs and six INTs. RB Godson is solid (586 yards on 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but as a team, the Hawkeyes average a woeful 3.1 YPC. TE LaPorta is the only player with more than 20 catches, with 28 receptions and two TDs. Wisconsin QB Mertz is having a terrible season, completing 55.9% for 945 yards with two INTs and seven INTs. However, during the team's three-game winning streak, he's avoided missteps, throwing just one INT in 42 attempts. He's stepped out of the way and Wisconsin's two outstanding RBs (Mellusi and Allen) take over. Wisconsin has run for 879 yards in its three wins (293.0 YPG), with Allen topping 100 yards in all three and Mellusi in two of the three. On the season, Mellusi has 692 yards on 6.2 YPC with 4 TDs and Allen 428 yards on 7.4 YPC with 5 TDs. The Wisconsin D has been strong all season but in its three wins, has allowed only 27 total points. Wisconsin rush D ranks 1st in the nation, allowing only 53.3 YPG. Sure, after a bye week and a loss to Purdue, Iowa will be primed for a bounce back but Camp Randall is the WRONG place at the WRONG time for that to happen. Running the ball against Wisconsin seems like too big of a hill to climb and Petras is NOT the type of QB to win it with his arm. The 'savior' for Iowa would be for its defense to force Wisconsin into mistakes (TOs) but Wisconsin has not fallen prey to that these last three weeks. Wisconsin has won SEVEN of its last nine vs Iowa and it's Homecoming at Camp Randall. A Wisconsin win and the Badgers will be 3-2, tied with Iowa in the Big Ten West, plus will own the tiebreaker. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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10-29-21 | Astros v. Braves -105 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Game of the Year is on the Atl Braves at 8:09 ET. The 2021 Braves did not have a winning record until their 111th game (56-55) and that's the deepest into a season any World Series team has gone before getting above .500. Atlanta won its fourth consecutive NL East title this season but its 88 wins were the fewest of the 10 playoff teams in 2021.The Astros won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but then went just 29-31 in 2020. However, under an expanded postseason, the Astros 'snuck in' and then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before falling to the Rays. The Astros rebounded to win the AL West with a 95-67 record in 2021 and have now made the World Series for the THIRD time in the last five seasons (note: Houston has made five straight appearances in the ALCS!). The Series now moves to Atlanta for three games. Atlanta sends Ian Anderson to the mound, who made six starts at the end of the 2020 season but then was a star in the postseason, as the Braves won THREE of his four starts with Anderson posting a 0.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Anderson was 9-5 (3.58 ERA) during the 2021 season and in the current postseason, has three starts with Atlanta winning all three (2.25 ERA and 1.08 WHIP). The Astros counter with Luis Garcia, who had a solid regular season (11-8, 3.30 ERA) but has lasted only 9.1 innings in three postseason starts, allowing 10 ERs (9,64 ERA). Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-21 | Grizzlies +6 v. Warriors | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mem Grizzlies at 10:10 ET. Klay Thompson missed the last two seasons and the latest word is that he is expected to be cleared to return to full-contract practices within a month. The latest word on the team's highly-touted No. 1 pick from the 2020 Draft (James Wiseman), is the following. The Warriors' training staff has targeted Friday as the date Wiseman should be able to start jumping and working out at full speed, and a "full clearance" is expected to be in the next couple weeks. In the meantime, the Warriors have opened 4-0. The Warriors welcome the 2-2 Memphis Grizzlies to Chase Center tonight, a team that is coming off an 'ugly' 116-96 loss last night in Portland (note: I had the Blazers in that one). Memphis opened the season with an 11-point home win over the sad-sack Cavs (although the Clippers may argue that Cleveland is NOT that bad!) but then set out on a four-game Western road swing. Memphis began with back-to back games at Staples Center against the Clippers (won) and then the Lakers (lost by three). PG Ja Morant (35.0 & 8.0 APG) led the way through three games for Memphis (no surprise there) but Desmond Bane's and De'Anthony Melton's play had SURE been eye openers. Bane was averaging 19.3 & 4.7 and Melton 18.3 & 4.7. Memphis also picked up center Stevens Adams in the offseason and he had the front office 'patting its own back' by averaging 13.0 & 13.0. Some great news was that Jarren Jackson Jr. looks completely healthy, averaging 15.3 & 6.0, after an injury-riddled season last year. However, not much went right in Portland on Wednesday night. Morant was jst 5 of 12 for 17 points, Adams shot 2 of 8 for four points with seven rebounds, Jackson had just seven points and two rebounds plus Melton imploded, missing all eight FG attempts in 25 scoreless minutes. Only Bane held up his end with 19 points, as Memphis shot 36.5% (17 of 50 on threes). Curry has led Golden St in scoring in all four games and enters tonight with a line of 29.0-8.3-6.3. SF Wiggns eventually got vaccinated and has opened averaging 16.8 & 5.3. The team's other three starters are Poole (15.3 & 4.3 APG), PF Green (9.5-7.3-6.8) and center Looney (6.5 & 5.8). Golden State head coach Steve Kerr has to be smiling (although maybe a little concerned) as each of the team's four wins have come despite a halftime deficit, a season-opening feat accomplished just once previously in NBA history by the Los Angeles Clippers in 1985-86. The eighth-seeded Warriors and ninth-seeded Grizzlies put on an entertaining show in the inaugural NBA play-in tournament last May, with Memphis getting two late hoops from Ja Morant to pull out a 117-112 overtime victory and enter as the West's No. 8 seed. However, I'm not reading much of anything into the "revenge" angle here though. New season, new faces and new circumstances. There's no bad blood between these teams, so in my opinion, the revenge factor is a moot point. Sure, it's back to-back nights for Memphis but off an AWFUL effort last night in Portland, I expect Memphis to play VERY well. Golden St has made a habit of falling behind and then coming back to win (see above) to open this season but a trend like that is unlikely to continue. Without Thompson and Wiseman, I don't believe the Warriors are the better team. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* NFC Game of the Week is on the Arz Cardinals at 8:20 ET. The defending champions Bucs are 6-1 (just 3-4 ATS) but many may feel that Tampa Bay is still the NFL's best team. However, the Thursday Night game between the 6-1 Packers (6-1 ATS) and 7-0 Cards (6-1 ATS) features a matchup of teams that are also staking a claim as being the NFL's best team (I can hear Dallas bettors crying, we are 6-0 ATS!). The Packers were steamrolled 38-3 by the Saints in Week 1 but have won SIX in a row both SU and ATS. However, Green Bay got some VERY bad news at the beginning of the week that WR Davante Adams.was placed on the COVID-19 list. As for the Cardinals, they are 7-0 for the first time since 1974 when they resided in St Louis and were guided by coaching legend Don Coryell.
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10-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2 | Top | 96-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Por Blazers at 10:10 ET. The Memphis Grizzlies have opened 2-1 but 3-0 ATS. The team continues its four-game Western road trip tonight in Portland, after splitting two games at Staples Center. The Grizz beat the Clippers but lost a close one to the Lakers. As for the 1-2 Blazers, they are 1-2 and will be looking to put a humiliating performance behind them when they play host to the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night.The Trail Blazers are adjusting to new head coach Chauncey Billups and the transition looked ugly in Monday night's 116-86 road loss to the Clippers. Portland committed 30 turnovers in a defeat that shooting guard CJ McCollum termed "a shellacking."
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10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans OVER 219.5 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Game of the Month is on Atl/NO Over at 7:40 ET. The Atlanta Hawks made the playoffs for 10 straight years from the 2007-08 through the 2016-17 seasons. The Hawks then followed with THREE consecutive last-place finishes in the Southeast division with a combined 73-158 (.316) record. However, the Hawks had a breakout season last year, going 41-31 and reaching the Eastern Conference final before falling to the Bucks, who went on to win the NBA title. The Pelicans were 48-34 back in 2017-18 but have gone 33-49, 30-42 and 31-41 the last three seasons, the last two after selecting 'King' Zion as the first pick of the 2019 Draft. The 2-1 Hawks open a three-game road trip tonight in New Orleans against the 1-3 Pelicans. Atlanta crushed the Mavs 113-87 in its season-opener at home but its first road game didn't go well, losing 101-95 at Cleveland. The Hawks rebounded to beat visiting Detroit 122-104 on Monday night but now will be tested tonight at New Orleans, a contest that 'kicks off' a stretch in which EIGHT of the team's next 10 games will be played away from home. PG Young leads a deep roster averaging 25.0 & 10.0 APG. Four more players average in double digits, led by Reddish, who averages 18.7 PPG off the bench. Starting center Capela is averaging a modest 8.7 PPG but leads the team averaging 11.7 RPG. New Orleans' starting lineup is under flex, as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe, while bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (27.0-7.5-4.8-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Both Graham (17.8 & 5.0 APG) and Valanciunas (17.3 & 15.0) have made immediate contributions plus Alexander-Walker (17.3-5.5-7.8) has made great strides in his third season. The problem? No other Pelicans player is averaging as much as 6.0 PPG. The Pelicans finished a three-game road trip of their own with their first victory of the season, 107-98 at Minnesota on Monday. First-year head coach Willie Green called the win "refreshing" after starting the season with three consecutive losses. The Pels are not a strong defensive team and while Atlanta's defense has been great to this point (97.3 PPG ranks 2nd), I don't see that as being a sustainable number over the long-term, as the Hawks allowed 111.4 PPG last season. Regression in that department is going to happen sooner, rather than later. I'm expecting a very up-tempo game tonight so go O-V-E-R! |
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10-27-21 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Late Breaker is on the Was Wizards at 7:40 ET. Boston opened the season losing at New York (138-134 in 2 OTs) and then returned home and got 'spanked' 115-83 by the Toronto Raptors. That result was the team's worst home loss since March of 2007 and was an 'ugly' home debiut for Boston's first-year head coach Ime Udoka. The etam was booed off the floor with Udoke saying recently, "I think the Toronto game was an aberration. We were building on that, playing the way we wanted to." He's referring to Boston winning its next two games, 107-97 at Houston and 140-129 (in OT) at Charlotte. The 2-2 Celtics are back in front of the hometown crowd again tonight, hosting the 2-1 Washington Wizards. Washington opened with two straight wins but lost 104-90 at the Brooklyn Nets on Monday for their first loss of the season. Despite the loss, the Wizards were happy to get Bradley Beal (21.0) back after their All-Star guard missed one game with a right-hip contusion. Beal led the team with 19 points against Brooklyn, although his points didn't come easily on an 8-for-22 shooting night, including 3-of-13 from 3-point range. PG Dinwiddie (19.0-5.0-7.0) is off to an excellent start with his new team plus a trio of former Lakers (can we call Washington, LA Lakers-East?) have made immediate impacts. PF Harrell (15.3 & 7.7) is coming off the bench (his preferred role), while Kuzma (14.3 & 13.0) and Caldwell-Pope (7.7) are starting at SF and PG, respectively. The Celtics feature the 'Dynamic Duo' of Jaylen Brown (28.3 & 7.3) and Jayson Tatunm (27.5 & 8.3), although Brown didn't play on Sunday at Houston. However, he returned Monday at Charlotte and scored 30 points while grabbing nine rebounds. Tatum was the star, scoring a game-high 41 points plus handed out eight assists. The Boston Celtics return home with momentum on their side after back-to-back road wins but starting center Al Horford (14.0 & 10.5) sat out Monday with a left- adductor strain. He is listed as probable. Washington's l104-90 oss at Brooklyn was a predictable letdown spot, as the Wizards were off a drawing 135-134 OT win at home over the Pacers, while the Nets needed a win to avoid a 1-3 start. The Wizards were still clearly "gassed" from their emotional win over Indiana but there's no better time to refocus and get back on track than right here and now in Boston. The Celtics enter his game with 'heavy legs,' off back-to-back victories (Sun & Mon), needing overtime to pull away for the 140-129 victory at Charlotte on Monday night. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-21 | Lakers -4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 125-121 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Lakers at 8:40 ET. The Lakers were taken out in the first round of last season's playoffs by the Suns, as A.D. was hurt during the series and who knows what may have happened if he didn't go down with that injury? The Lakers then opened teh current with back-to-back home losses to the Warriors and Suns, before edging the Grizzlies at Staples Center on Saturday, 121-118. San Antonio lost the "play-in" game last year and finished as the 10th seed in the West with a 33-39 record. The Spurs saw the departures of DeMar DeRozan (21.6-4.2-6.9), Rudy Gay (11.4 & 4.8) and Patty Mills (10.8) this past offseason, leaving a group of supporting players playing in a free-flowing offense. San Antonio opened with a home rout of Orlando but then lost at Denver and back at home to Milwaukee. LBJ (26.0-6.3-5.3) is expected to play on Tuesday despite suffering a leg injury midway through the win over Memphis. James ended up playing 40 minutes. He said afterward that his leg was "sore" and that he would receive continual treatment on it heading up to the dustup with the Spurs. LA woke up offensively against Memphis, shooting 53.6 percent from the floor and 53.3 percent from three-point range. Veteran Carmelo Anthony led all scorers with 28 points and he has averaged 17.7 PPG in three games. Anthony Davis added 22 points and eight rebounds and checks in at 25.7 & 11.0 so far. Westbrook (12.0-7.7-8.7) has yet to find his rhythm and I will make no predictions as to whether he will fit in well or not. The Spurs' Johnson (20.7) is a rising star and leads six players in scoring double digits. Starting alongside Johnson are guards White (15.3 & 6.7 APG) and Murray (13.3-8.0-7.0) plus forward McDermott (14.0) and center Poetl (12.3 & 9.3). Guard Walker (13.3) adds double digits off the bench. The bottom line is, coming off their first win of the year over a quality Grizzlies team, I believe that the Lakers win again here in this favorable matchup with "room to spare!" Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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10-26-21 | Braves v. Astros -128 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -128 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* World Series Came 1 Opener is on the Hou Astros at 8:09 ET. The Atlanta Braves opened the 2021 season having won THREE consecutive NL East titles and a 2020 season in which it led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLDS before losing the final three games of that series. The 2021 season was a struggle for Atlanta, one in which the Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. The Braves didn't have a winning record until Aug 6 but since then (including the playoffs), they've gone 40-21. The Braves not have a winning record until their 111th game (56-55) is the deepest into a season any World Series team has gone before getting above .500. Atlanta's 88 wins were the fewest of the 10 playoff teams in 2921.
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10-26-21 | 76ers v. Knicks UNDER 218.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Phi/NYK Under at 7:40 ET. The 76ers are at MSG tonight to take on the Knicks, as both teams enter with 2-1 records. The 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs. They are playing without Ben Simmons (14.7-5.6-7.2), who demanded a trade over the summer after struggling in a seven-game second-round loss to the Atlanta Hawks plus guard Shake Milton (13.0 PPG last season) has yet to play with an ankle injury. The Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31 but lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. However, after impressive wins over Boston at home (138 points in two OTs) and at Orlando (scored 121 points), the Knicks lost to Orlando in MSG in a quick turnaround, being held to 104 points. |
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10-25-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 234.5 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* O/U Play of the Day is on Port/LAC Under at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers welcome Portland to Staples Center on Monday night, still searching for their first win of the season. The Clippers have had to dig themselves out of double-digit deficits in both losses, exerting a lot of energy to get back into the game, only to fall short in the fourth quarter. LA trailed by as many as 19 points in a season-opening, 115-113 setback on the road vs the Warriors and then fell behind by as many as 16 points in a 120-114 home loss to the Grizzlies. The Clippers need to figure out how to make up for the loss of superstar Kawhi Leonard, who remains out indefinitely as he rehabs from an ACL tear in his right knee suffered during the playoffs last June. Paul George has carried the scoring load for the Clippers offensively (35.0-10.5-5.0) but he needs some help from his teammates. The Blazers visit LA at 1-1. Portland was upset 124-121 at home by the Kings on Wednesday but then routed the Suns 134-105 on Saturday. CJ McCollum paced Portland with 28 points on 10-of-19 shooting from the floor, while Damian Lillard added 19 points and eight assists. Four Blazers are averaging in double digits, led by guards McCollum (31.0-4.5-3.0) and Lillard (19.5-3.5-9.0) plus center Nurkic (14.5 & 13.0). The Clippers have always prided themselves on playing tough D but enter having allowed 117.5 PPG over their first two. Expect LA to bounce back with a much better defensive effort in the third game of the season and remember, the Blazers brought in Chauncey Billups as their head coach to Improve Portland's defense. HUGE number here and I say go UNDER! Good luck...Larry
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10-25-21 | Saints -4 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:15 ET. The Drew Brees era came to a close last season in New Orleans and the Saints are second-to-last in the NFL with 169.4 YPG through the air, well off the standard set by Brees and Co. The Saints are currently 3-2 and will likely be playing for a wild card berth as their 'ticket' into the postseason (The Tampa Bay Bradys are 6-1 to lead the NFC South). That said, compared to Seattle, New Orleans is 'cruising' in 2021. The 2-4 Seahawks are faltering at a level rarely seen over the past decade, as Seattle entered the current season having made the postseason in NINE of Pete Carroll's 11 seasons with Seattle, including EIGHT of nine times since Russell Wilson became the team's starting QB in his rookie season. QB Jameis Winston has just 892 passing yards but has 12 TD passes, and only three INTs (in 116 attempts) for a QB rating of 108.1 (his career QB rating is 86.1!). RB Kamara (368 yards on 3.9 YPC / just one TD) is also the team's leading receiver with 15 catches. However, WRs Harris (12 catches ) and Gallaway (13 catches) have modest reception totals, they've averaged 19.7 and 17.1 YPC, respectively. Defensively, the Saints are allowing just 18.2 PPG (4th-best). Seattle's woes have a lot to do with the loss of QB Russell Wilson (72.0% with 10 TDs and one INT plus a QB rating of 125.3) to a finger injury and starting RB Chris Carson (232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs with neck troubles that have forced him to miss the last two games. Geno Smith started last week at QB and completed 23 of 32 for 209 yards with one TD and zero INTs but he's NO Wilson! You think? Smith's fumble while being sacked in overtime led to Pittsburgh's winning score. Collins was the featured back and ran for 101 yards (5.1 YPC) and a TD. WRs Metcalf (31 catches / 14.2 YPC / 5 TDs) and Lockett (27 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) are excellent but that's when Wilson is the one throwing to them. Getting back to Collins, he came out of last Sunday's game 'beat up!' However, Seattle's offense is not Carroll's biggest concern. It's a defense that's allowing 433.2 YPG, dead-last in the NFL (32nd). After giving up more than 450 total yards in four straight games (that tied an NFL record), the Seahawks were better last week holding the Steelers to 345 yards. However, Seattle still hasn't held an opponent under 100 yards rushing (can you say a breakout game by Kamara?) and continues to get very little out of its pass rush (had zero sacks against Pittsburgh in the OT loss). The Saints are coming off their bye week and more than a few players will be back from injuries. New Orleans has been VERY kind to its backs on the road, going 36-15 ATS in its last 51 as the visiting side. The Saints will have no mercy here on the struggling home team in this one. Lay the points and expect a blowout. Good luck...Larry |
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10-25-21 | Bucks v. Pacers +3 | Top | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:10 ET. |
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10-24-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -6 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 9:40 ET. The Los Angeles Lakers dropped their season opener 121-114 to the visiting Golden State Warriors and then lost another home game on Friday, 115-105 to the Phoenix Suns. Meanwhile, Memphis began its season by scoring 132 points in an 11-point home win over the Cavs and then last night, right here in Staples, beat the Clippers 120-114.
So what's up in LA? Will Westbrook eventually fit with James and Davis? Time will tell. Right now, after an 0-6 preseason, the Lakers are looking to avoid starting 0-3 for the SECOND time in their LeBron James-era. LA does catch Memphis in a tough spot here, playing on back-to-back in Staples, as part of a four-game Western trip that will conclude with Games against the Trail Blazers and the Warriors. In contrast, the Lakers' upcoming schedule is favorable, with games against the Spurs, Thunder, Rockets twice (both at home), followed by another home game against Oklahoma City. LA will never admit to it, but the "panic button" has been pushed. Expect to see a full four-quarter effort from the home side and I believe that'll result in the Lakers' first win and cover of the season.
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10-24-21 | Colts v. 49ers -4 | Top | 30-18 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic Game of the Month is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET. Week 7's SNF features two teams badly in need of a win. Indianapolis is 2-4 but plays in the weak AFC South. Tennessee leads at 4-2 but has to host the Chiefs on Sunday, off its MNF thriller over the Bills. In contrast, San Francisco is 2-3 and is stuck in the NFC West, which features the NFL's only unbeaten team (Arizona at 6-0) and the LA Rams, who are 5-1. That said, the team that loses here will see its playoff chances headed for 'life support,' even though the season has yet to reach its midpoint. The Colts have been consistently inconsistent this season but they're off a big 31-3 win over lowly Houston at home. The 49ers are hoping to bounce back after they lost 17-10 at Arizona in their latest matchup. That came two weeks ago, so they're now fully rested after their bye week, which really came at an opportune time early in the season. Carson Wentz, the former Philadelphia Eagles QB was acquired in the offseason that reunited him with Frank Reich, who was Philadelphia's offensive coordinator for Wentz's first two NFL seasons (2016-17). Wentz looked like he was headed to stardom when he threw a career-high 33 touchdowns against seven interceptions in 2017 but his production went down after Reich departed to become the Colts' head coach. Wentz had just 16 TD passes and a career-worst 15 interceptions in 2020, losing his starting job to Jalen Hurts. However, reunited with Reich has worked out well, with Wentz completing 64.2% for 1,545 yards with nine TDs and just one INT (102.4 QB rating. In fact, Wentz is looking to throw multiple TD passes for the FOURTH straight game Sunday night. RB Taylor started poorly but has averaged 99.3 YPG over his last three, after rushing for 145 yards with two TDs vs Houston. WR Pittman leads with 31 catches but the bad news is that TY Hilton, who returned from a neck injury with four catches for 80 yards in his 2021 debut, has been ruled out. The Indy defense is solid, allowing 21.8 PPG (11th). San Francisco was on the verge of a QB controversy but Trey Lance, who started against Arizona, sprained his left knee in that game and was ruled out Friday. Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starting QB, as he returns from a calf injury that caused him to miss the Week 5 loss to the Arizona Cardinals. "During the bye week, we made great strides," Garoppolo said Wednesday. "It will get better every day. Right now, it feels great." Jimmy G has completed 66.1% for 925 yards with five TD sand two INTs. Is he San Francisco's QB of the future? Not sure! The team's running game has been devastated by injuries but has still managed to average 122.0 YPG (12th). It won't help Jimmy G that George Kittle, the best TE outside of Kelce, remains out but WR WR Deebo Samuel had 71 yards from scrimmage and his fourth career TD run in Week 5 loss to Arizona, plus has at least five catches in four of five games this season (31 catches / 17.7 YPC / 3 TDs). The Nick Bosa-led defense (Bosa has five sacks, the most through five games for the franchise since Bryant Young had six in 2005) is allowing a modest 329.8 YPG (6th) but 23.8 YPG (16th)? Here's two contrasting trends. The 49ers are a horrific 0-9 their last nine as a home favorite (aren't they due?) but 11-5 ATS in non-conference games. Sometimes, when a team is rolling and on a win streak, a "bye week" can throw a proverbial "monkey wrench" into their well-oiled chemistry, but in this case, the bye came at a great time for a San Francisco team that opened 2-0 but has now lost THREE straight. "We could easily be sitting at 5-0 right now," 49ers left tackle Trent Williams said. "Obviously, we're not. We're 2-3 but we go back and revisit every loss, you can find some good in that. There were some things where we could have won some games but we didn't take advantage of the situations." He may be exaggerating a little but the 49ers are NOT a sub-.500 team. Lay the short price as San Francisco moves to 3-3. Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-21 | Magic v. Knicks UNDER 215.5 | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My NBA 10* O/U Game of the Week is on Orl/NYK Under at 7:10 ET. Orlando went 48-34 in the 2017-18 season (lost in conference semis) but the last three years, has played .416 basketball without even 'sniffing' a playoff berth. Orlando is in full rebuild mode this season and new head coach in Jamahl Mosley, who doesn't have a lot to work with. Meanwhile, the Knicks ended a seven-year postseason drought last year by going 41-31. New York lost in the first round to the Atlanta Hawks, who made it all the way to the East Conference Finals. Orlando opened its season by allowing 123 points at San Antonio and then 121 points at home to the Knicks, to open 0-2. It could (will be) a L-O-N-G first season for the Magic and Mosley. The Knicks preceded their win over the Magic by topping the Celtics 138-134 in two OTs in their season opener. The Two teams now play a quick turnaround game Sunday night at MSG. It's really hard to know what to make with Orlando. The Magic's inexperience has been exposed during an 0-2 start. In their season opener Wednesday at San Antonio, the Magic led for much of the first quarter and remained within a possession of the lead well into the second quarter but fell 123-.97 Against the Knicks on Friday at home, Orlando fell behind for good fewer than four minutes into the game. The Magic went 0-for-8 from the floor while being outscored 16-0 over the final 4:34 of the first quarter and trailed 36-16. Final score; 121-96. The Magic's starters in the first two games, Cole Anthony, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs and Franz Wagner, are all 23 years of age or younger. Plus all FIVE are first-round draft picks Randle (35-8-9) and Fournier (32 points) led the way in the 138-134 win over Boston, as New York shot 48.6% from the floor, including 17 of 45 on threes. Friday night in Atlanta, Randle had more modest totals of 21-10-7 and Fournier added "just" 18 points. However, the team shot 500.% overall, including 24 of 54 on threes. What's going on with ALL the threes, has the defensive-minded Tom Thibodeau turned into Paul Westwood? The bottom line is, I can't see the Knicks pushing the pace in this one from the opening tip until the final horn, with Philadelphia coming to town next. New York has also seen the total go under the number in SEVEN of its last nine after a SU/ATS road win in which it scored 120 or more points in. Play under. Good luck...Larry |
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10-24-21 | Lions v. Rams OVER 50 | Top | 19-28 | Loss | -118 | 95 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* NFL "Featured" O/U is Det/LAR Over at 4:05 ET. The 0-6 Detroit Lions will be in Los Angeles on Sunday to take on the 5-1 LA Rams. QB Jared Goff, who the Rams made the overall No. 1 pick of the 206 Draft will be back in LA to face his former team for the first time since the Rams engineered a trade last offseason that brought QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams from the Lions. The move to secure Stafford has gone well, as the Rams sit at 5-1, just below the 6-0 Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West. As for Goff's move to Detroit? Not so much! The same cannot be said for the Lions. Detroit is 0-6 and still looking for its first win under first-year head coach Dan Campbell. Speaking honestly (rare for any coach or manager these days), Rams head coach Sean McVay said the handling of Goff's departure wasn't exactly a smooth process. "I wish there was better, clearer communication," McVay said. "To say that it was perfectly handled on my end, I wouldn't be totally accurate in that. I'll never claim to be perfect, but I will try to learn from some things that I can do better, and I think that was one of them without a doubt." |
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10-24-21 | Bengals +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 114 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. It's Week 7 and Sunday's game between the 4-2 Bengals and 5-1 Ravens at Baltimore means a win by Cincy ties the two teams atop the AFC Central (with Cincy owning the tiebreaker) but a win by Baltimore moves the Ravens two games ahead of the Bengals. The Bengals have looked good so far but they will have to overcome recent history that reveals that since Lamar Jackson became the starting QB midway through 2018, the Ravens are 5-0 against the Bengals. That said, Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is taking nothing for granted. "The (Bengals') whole team is one of the best teams in the National Football League right now," Harbaugh told reporters. "There's no question about it -- just watch them play. ... We've got our hands full." |
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10-24-21 | Chiefs v. Titans +4.5 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 7, find themselves 3-3 and tied for last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Good news is that the Chargers and Raiders are just 4-2 and the 2021 season features 17 games. The Titans opened the season losing 38-10 at home to the Cardinals and the loss was a bit of a shocker. SIX weeks later, Arizona is the NFL's lone unbeaten at 6-0 (5-1 ATS). Tennessee has won four of five since, losing only 27-24 in OT at the Jets (now that REMAINS a head-scratcher!). KC is off 31-13 win at Washington, while Tennessee is off an impressive 34-31 home win Monday night over the Bills. |
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10-24-21 | Falcons v. Dolphins +2.5 | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Losers Day Out play is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. Atlanta joined the NFL in 1966, the same year Miami entered the AFL. The Falcons have been to just ONE Super Bowl (2016) and blew a 28-3 lead. The Dolphins won back-to-back Super Bowls ('72 & '73) and have NOT won one since. 2-4 Atlanta is at 1-5 Miami on Sunday in what I'm dubbing a "Losers Day Out" play. The Falcons are 2-3 but note that the wins have come over the Giants and Jets, who are a combined 2-9. Miami won at New England in Week 1 but has since lost FIVE in a row (1-4) The Falcons have played the Dolphins just three times in Matt Ryan's career (Atlanta is 1-2) but note that in each meeting, Miami's had a different QB lead them. That trend will continue Sunday, as Tua Tagovailoa has never faced Atlanta. Previous Miami QBs that Ryan has gone up against are Chad Pennington (2009), Ryan Tannehill (2013) and Jay Cutler (2017).
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10-23-21 | Grizzlies +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 120-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Memphis Grizzlies at 10:40 ET. The Los Angeles Clippers will look to bounce back in the team's first home contest of the season Saturday against the visiting Memphis Grizzlies, after opening the campaign with a 115-113 road loss against the Golden State Warriors (Curry had 45 points). The Memphis Grizzlies are the opponent, coming in off a 132-121 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday. |
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10-23-21 | Dodgers -145 v. Braves | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Late-Breaker is on the LA Dodgers at 8:08 ET. Attention: It sure looks as if Buehler will start for LA but I'm taking no chances. This is an "action" play. Good luck...Larry |
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10-23-21 | USC +7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 16-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET. USC/Notre Dame is the greatest intersectional rivalry in CFB history. The schools had met in every season since World War II before this long standing rivalry took a one-season break due to the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. "It's baaack!" in 2021, as No. 13 Notre Dame (5-1) hosts an underachieving USC team that opened 15th in the AP's preseason poll but is currently unranked with a 3-3 record. Notre Dame leads the all-time series 47-36-5, as after after winning SEVEN straight in the series, the Trojans have lost SEVEN of the last 10, including four straight in South Bend. |
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10-23-21 | Mavs v. Raptors +4 | Top | 103-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 7:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors flopped in their season-opening game Wednesday, falling 98-83 at home to the Wizards. However, Toronto rebounded last night with an impressive 115-83 upset victory at Boston. The Raptors travel tonight to Dallas to play the Mavericks, who got served in their season-opener 113-87 in Atlanta. Normally I avoid "playing on" teams in the second game of a back-to-back, but this is different. It's the start of the season, so fatigue simply is not an issue at this point of the campaign. Plus, this is a difficult travel spot for the Mavericks, as they make a rare trip "North of the Border." Let's take a closer look. |
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10-23-21 | BYU -4 v. Washington State | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on BYU at 3:30 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and opened 5-0 in 2021, including notable wins 26-17 over then-No. 21 Utah (ending a 9-game losing streak in "The Holy War") and 27-17 over then-No. 21 Arizona St. However, the Cougars come to Pullman off back-to-back losses, 26-17 at home to Boise St and 38-24 at Baylor. Washington St played just four games in 2020's COVID season, winning its opener and then going 0-3 SU and ATS, while allowing 42.0 PPG. It was Nick Rolovich's first season at Washington St, after he led his alma mater (Hawaii) to a 28-27 record in four years but with three Hawaii Bowl berths (2-1). Rolovich is a former QB, well-liked and the Cougars expected him to revive the program. Wash St opened just 1-3 but then beat Cal (21-16), Oregon St (31-24) and Stanford (34-31) to reach 4-3 (is on a 4-0 ATS streak0. However, as all have to know by now, he was dismissed from his head coaching position, along with four assistants (more later). Washington St QB deLaura has completed 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs. He also has some 'sweet' WRs in Harris (44 catches / 5 TDs), Jackson (37 catches / 4 TDs) and Stribling (24 catches / 4 TDs). However, the Washington St running game averages just 111.7 YPG (114th) on 3.7 YPC with the lone notable contributor being Borghi (421 yards on 5.1 YPC / 5 TDs). The Cougars are scoring 25.7 PPG and allowing 25.7 PPG. |
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10-23-21 | Kansas State +1 v. Texas Tech | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Kansas St at 12:00 ET. Chris Kleiman led Kansas St to an 8-5 season in his first year at Kansas St but fell to 4-6 last year. Kansas St opened the 2021 season 3-0, including solid wins over Stanford 24-7 at a neutral site) and 38-17 at Nevada. However, the Wildcats have opened Big 12 play 0-3, allowing 101 points (33.7 PPG) , in losing to Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Iowa St. Texas Tech began with a 38-21 over Houston (neutral site) and was 3-0 when it got pounded 70-35 by Texas. The Red Raiders rebounded with a 23-20 win at West Va but then lost 52-31 at home to TCU, before beating Big 12 'punching bag' Kansas, 41-14. Head coach Matt Wells is in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. The Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons but this year's team is 5-2. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson is 44 of 64 for 526 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in two games since returning from a knee injury. For him to be effective, he needs balance and the running has shown promise (162.5 YPG ranks 69th), with RB Deuce Vaughn rushing for 543 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC and 5 TDs (he's also the team's leading receiver with 23 catches, adding two more TDs). The defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (60th) on 355.2 YPG (52nd), despite struggling against big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders average 168.6 YPG on the ground (63rd) with Thompson (314 yards on 5.0 YPC and 6 TDs) plus Brooks (284 yards on 8.1 YPC with 4 TDs). QB Tyler Shough averaged 218 passing yards per game before breaking his collarbone in the Sept 25 loss to Texas but backup Henry Colombi has stepped right in, averaging 264.5 YPG over the past four games. The Texas Tech defense is allowing 31.4 PPG (102nd) on 386.4 YPG (75th). Kansas St is on a three-game slide but note Oklahoma St and Oklahoma are both unbeaten, while Iowa St was ranked No. 7 in the preseason (pretty tough three-game stretch). For one, Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is not buying the fact that Kansas State is struggling. "K-State has beat us (five) years in a row," Wells said. "They're tough; they're physical. I have a lot of respect for Chris Kleiman. I think Skylar Thompson is gritty and tough. He has a lot of moxie. Deuce Vaughn is one of the best in the country, and they've got some guys in the special teams that keep you up at night." Great situation for Kansas St to get back in the win column after a rough three-game stretch. Kansas St has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against Texas Tech since 2011. What changes here? Nothing. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Jazz v. Kings +6 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Sac Kings at ET. The Utah Jazz compiled the best record in the league last season (52-20) but suffered the disappointment of a second-round playoff exit. As for the Sacramento Kings, they finished 31-41 last season, extending the team's almost unfathomable 15-year playoff drought (longest active in the NBA). The Jazz opened with a 107-86 home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder (held the Thunder to just 37.4% shooting), while the Kings opened their season with an impressive 124-121 road win over the Portland Trail Blazers (both played on Wednesday). Naturally, the Jazz are a better team than the Kings (duh!) and series history points to Utah (Jazz have won 13 of the past 15 meetings) but I've got a feeling the Kings will be much more competitive in the 2021-22 season. Utah had six players in double digits against the Thunder, led by Bogdanovich's 22. Gobert had a double-double (16 & 21) but Mitchell (26.4 PPG last season) had a modest 16 on 6 of 17 shooting (including 3 of 10 on threes). The Kings' Harrison Barnes carried the Kings with career highs of 36 points and eight 3-pointers. PG De'Aaron Fox added 27 points and eight assists plus center Richaun Holmes had 21 points and 11 rebounds (Buddy Hield scored 17 points off the bench). Here's the rub. As noted above, the Jazz have won 13 of the last 15 against the Kings and that includes all three last season, with an average winning margin of 29 points. In fact, Utah set a franchise record for points when it demolished the Kings 154-105 in Sacramento on April 28. My bet? The Kings 'sneak up' on the Jazz, who could be forgiven for taking Sacramento lightly in only the second game of the season. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 9:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets each opened the new season with wins. The Spurs destroyed the Magic 123-97 at home in their opener, while the Nuggets beat the Suns 110-98 in Phoenix, getting a measure of revenge after Suns swept the injury-depleted Nuggets in the second round of the playoffs last June. San Antonio lost the "play-in" game last year and finished as the 10th seed in the West with a 33-39 record. Life gets tougher for the Spurs tonight in Denver. The Spurs saw the departures of DeMar DeRozan (21.6-4.2-6.9), Rudy Gay (11.4 & 4.8) and Patty Mills (10.8) this past offseason, leaving a group of supporting players playing in a free-flowing offense. Dejounte Murray (15.7-7.1-5.4 in 2020-21) is now the "go-to" guy in San Antonio and with DeMar DeRozan gone, Derrick White (15.4 last season) is expected to take on a much bigger role this season for Greg Popovich. All five SA starters scored in double digits vs the Magic, while Vassell (19) and Walker (17) were the top-two scorers for the Spurs, coming off the bench. Denver is much healthier than it was at the end of last season but Jamal Murray is still rehabbing from his ACL tear suffered in April. Forward Aaron Gordon, who came over in a trade with the Magic in March, looks 100 percent and Will Barton has his legs back after struggling with knee and ankle injuries in the spring. Most significant is the health of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. He is the key to the Nuggets' offense, which he showed in Wednesday's win by finishing with 27 points and 13 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. signed an extension before the season and had 15 points plus Gordon, who also signed an extension, had 12 points and a huge block in the fourth quarter that helped the Nuggets keep the lead. Denver has the depth and talent to step up over the first half of the season until star guard Jamal Murray finally returns from injury. However, as noted above, Popovich has a roster of players to run his free-flowing offense. Case in point, SEVEN players scored in double digits vs Orlando. The Spurs got a 'breather' vs the Magic but now play their next three games against the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers. San Antonio's depth could be the difference here (ATS), as Denver's reserves struggled in the preseason against Phoenix. Collectively the bench was a minus-52 but played better in the second half when Malone kept one or two starters in the game with reserves. The starters were a plus-112. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Red Sox -101 v. Astros | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Red Sox at 8:08 ET. Before I start, this is an "action" play on the Boston Red Sox, so no need to use listed pitchers! One more reminder before I go. This is an "action" play on the Boston Red Sox. Who knows if Garcia could be ruled out right before the first pitch? See you for Game 7 on Saturday. |
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10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 7:40 ET. The Toronto Raptors are coming off a 98-83 home loss to Washington, while Boston has to be feeling a little "gassed," after an opening 138-134 setback in two OTs at Madison Square Garden vs the Knicks, The Raptors struggled offensively in their first game (leading scorer Siakam recently returned to practice in a limited capacity after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder) but the defense was good in holding the high-scoring Wizards to just 98 points. Fred VanVleet had 12 points, three rebounds, four assists, and two steals, while OG Anunoby had 11 points, 10 rebounds, and two steals. Toronto shot 30.9% overall, including 20.6% on threes. While Toronto's first game saw both teams score under 100 points, the Celtics and Knicks each topped 130 points, albeit in two overtimes. Jaylen Brown went off for a career-high 46 points in Wednesday's season opener at the New York Knicks (grabbed nine rebounds and dished out six assists) but fellow All Star Jayson Tatum struggled with 20 points on 7-of-30 shooting, making just TWO of 15 shots from long distance. Toronto had been one of the NBA's best teams for FIVE straight seasons, but dropped off last season in going just 27-45. Similarly, the Celtics made the Eastern Conference Finals in THREE of four seasons, before going just 36-36 and losing in the playoffs' first round last season. Head coaching 'savior' Brad Stevens is now in the front office and Friday's game will mark the regular season home debut for Celtics new head coach Ime Udoka. Toronto's Nick Nurse, NBA coach-of-the-year in the 2019-20 season, may just have a trick or two up his sleeve for Udoka. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on UCF at 7:00 ET. Ryan Silverfield was hired by Mike Norvell as an assistant at Memphis to begin the 2016 season. He was elevated to assistant head coach in 2019, and was named interim head coach when Norvell left to take the head coach position at Florida State. he promoted to head coach on December 13 and debuted in his first college game as head coach against Penn State in the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic (lost 53-39). He led the Tigers to an 8-3 season in 2020 (first as a head coach), including a 25-10 win over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl, which marked Memphis' 7th straight bowl appearance. Gus Malzahn's team has been bombarded with injuries in the early going but this guy is a quality coach and I don't expect last week's 56-21 loss at now-No. 2 Cincinnati to keep this team down. QB Dillon Gabriel is sidelined by an injury and is missed but freshman Mikey Keene is capable. RBs Richardson (317 yards / 6.1 YPC / one TD) and Bowser (295 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs) lead a strong running game averaging 204.2 YPG (129th). Like Memphis, the UCF defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 32.2 PPG (107th0. I'm a fan of Malzahn. During his eight seasons at Auburn, he was 68-35, including THREE wins over Alabama plus made a trip to the 2013 national championship game where the Tigers lost 34-31 to FSU when the Seminoles scored with 13 seconds Neither team is going to beat you with its defense, but the Tigers' inconsistencies from one week to the next makes them untrustworthy here. What does matter is, series history and the home field advantage. UCF had won 13 straight over Memphis before losing 50-49 at Memphis in 2020. Methinks, UCF remembers. UCF was 21-0 SU at home from 2017-19, before going just 2-2 last season. Throw in UCF's 3-0 home record in 2021 and that's 26-2 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season. At this price, UCF is a HUGE play! |
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10-21-21 | Clippers +4 v. Warriors | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TNT game of the Month is on the LA Clippers at 10:00 ET. The Warriors looked great in beating the Lakers 121-114 in Los Angeles on Opening night. The Warriors return to the Bay Area tonight to host the LA Clippers, who will be the last team to take the court for the 2021-22 NBA season. Stephen Curry opened the season with a triple-double (21-10-10) and the Golden St bench outscored LA's 55 to 29, which would turn out to be the difference in the end. The Clippers, who finished EIGHT wins ahead of the Warriors last season. Of note, they will tip off their new campaign without two of their top players, Kawhi Leonard (24.8-6.5-5.2) and Serge Ibaka (11.1 & 6.7). Leonard is coming off an ACL surgery that could cost him the entire season, while Ibaka is being brought along slowly after back surgery. Clippers forward Paul George (23.3-6.6-5.2) was impressed that Golden State could take down the preseason Western Conference favorite on a night when star Stephen Curry shot just 5-for-21. "They move the ball. It's scary," George said. "Steph didn't shoot it well, and they still win." George was fantastic in last year's postseason after Kawhi went down and he's the clear leader this season. PG Jackson played excellently down the stretch and throughout the postseason and is joined in the backcourt by the newly acquired Eric Bledose (14.0-3.9-4.3 in his career). The Clippers also picked up Justice Winslow, who if healthy, is a talented player. The Clippers lost 14 of their last 15 games at Oracle Arena in Oakland but have won THREE of four since the Warriors moved into the Chase Center across the bay in San Francisco. In fact, the Clippers won the very first game played in this building two years ago, running away with a 141-122 victory. Ivica Zubac, who is expected to get the starting call tonight in Ibaka's place, recorded the first double-double in Chase Center history that night with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Golden State has a lot of young faces, and it's still playing without Klay Thompson as well. I see a SU win by the Clippers but will of course, take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-21-21 | Broncos +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* AFC Game of the Week is on the Den Broncos at 8:20 ET. The Denver Broncos surprised most by opening 3-0 but the team 'limps' into Cleveland Thursday night on a three-game slide, after a 34-24 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The Browns made the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and opened the season by almost beating the Chiefs in KC. The Browns led throughout but gave way in the 4th quarter. Cleveland responded with three straight wins but enters this contest off a 47-42 shootout loss in LA vs the Chargers and a humbling 37-14 to the now 6-0 Cardinals! |
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10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* NLCS Showdown is on the the LA Dodgers at 8:08 ET. The Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. Atlanta captured its fourth straight NL East title in 2021 and then eliminated the Brewers 3-1 in the NLDS. Waiting for the Braves in the NLCS was the LA Dodgers, who saw their eight-year run of winning the NL West end when they fell ONE game short of the Giants. The Dodgers survived a 3-1 win over the Cards in the NL wild card game (2-run walk-off HR in the 9ath) and then overcame a 2-1 deficit against the Giants to win Games 4 and 5 to advance to the NLCS.
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10-21-21 | Hurricanes v. Canadiens +119 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Month is on the Mon Canadiens at 7:08 ET.
Enough is ENOUGH as far as Canadiens fans are concerned after an 0-4 start! Yes, Montreal's star goaltender Carey Price is still sidelined with personal issues and won't be playing here, but I like the winless (0-4) home side to dig deep and to finally post a victory on Friday night. Carolina comes in riding high after a 2-0 start. It beat the Islanders 6-3 at home, and then it won 3-2 at Nashville. The Hurricane's Jordan Staal has two assists over the first two games, while goaltender Frederick Andersen is 2-0-0 with a 2.50 goals-against average and .926 save percentage. However, Carolina's last win came FIVE days ago! That's an eternity as far as momentum is concerned in sports like the NHL or NBA. The Canadiens made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final last year, but they've struggled to find that same spark so far this season. That includes a 5-0 loss here to the Sharks two nights ago (note that the Canadiens are 8-2 in their last 10 after a shutout home loss off three or more goals.) It's interesting to note that this is the first time in 26 years that the Habs have started the season 0-4. Jonathan Drouin has scored two of Montreal's three goals this season. Jake Allen is 0-3-0 with a 3.05 goals-against average and .885 save percentage. An 0-3-0 record isn't good, but Allen hasn't been terrible at all. He's just received little support to this point. Carolina's extended break between games sets up for them to come out flat, especially against an 0-4 opponent. The panic button has absolutely been smashed in Montreal and I expect this now desperate team to respond. Look for the hungry Canadiens to finally earn their first victory of the season on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | 76ers v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the NO Pelicans at 8:10 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs, As for the New Orleans Pelicans, they were a HUGE disappointment, finishing 31-41 (two games below the playoff 'cut line') despite the presence of 'King Zion.' The two teams opener their respective seasons tonight in New Orleans with BOTH playing without a marque player. Ben Simmons (14.3-7.2-6.9) took most of the blame for Philly's playoff loss to Atlanta but backed off his holdout and reported to Philadelphia for a mandatory COVID test Oct 11, then passed through the NBA protocols and returned to practice Sunday. However, Sixers head coach Doc Rivers suspended Simmons for one game because of "conduct detrimental to the team" on Tuesday. Moving back to New Orleans, forward Zion Williamson (27.0 & 7.2) remains out indefinitely as he works his way back from offseason foot surgery. "I just thought he was a distraction today," Rivers said Tuesday after practice. "I didn't think he wanted to do what everybody else was doing. It was early. It wasn't a big deal. I just told him he should leave. We went on with practice." The Sixers were the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, but were knocked out of the playoffs at home when the Atlanta Hawks prevailed 103-96 in Game 7 of a conference semifinal series. Simmons averaged just 9.9 points in the series, made one-third of his free throws and passed up a layup down the stretch of the decisive game. He later demanded a trade. And the saga continues. However, Philadelphia is expected to be one of the top teams in the NBA again, with returning starters Joel Embiid (28.5 & 10.6), Seth Curry, Tobias Harris (19.5 & 6.8) and Danny Green. New Orleans' starting lineup also is uncertain as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe and bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (23.8-4.9-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Josh Hart (9.0 & 8.2) is also a very UNDERVALUED contributor. Philly's been a terrific home team the last few seasons but has been vulnerable on the road. I believe Valanciunas (15.0 & 9.8 LY with Memphis) will make a big difference this season for the Pelicans plus Simmons' offseason contract dispute has been a huge distraction for the 76ers. I think they'll struggle with consistency to begin the season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | Rockets +6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 106-124 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Season Opener is on the Hou Rockets at 8:10 ET. Houston was a Western Conference-worst 17-55 last year, while Minnesota wasn't much better at 23-59. The Rockets initiated a full rebuild following the early-season trade of James Harden and will open the new season with an exciting, albeit overwhelmingly youthful, roster. As for the T-wolves, they missed the playoffs for a third consecutive season and posted a losing record for the 15th time in 16 years! Minnesota fired its lead basketball executive (Gersson Rosas) just prior to the start of training camp and head coach Chris Finch will enter his first full season on the bench trying to steer a long wayward ship on course (Finch is Houston' FIFTH coach in just seven years!). The Rockets had a great haul in the recent draft with SG Jalen Green (No. 2 overall pick bypassed college to play in last year's G-League) plus the 6-10 Alperen Sengun (Turkey), the 6-8 Usman Garuba (Spain), and guard Josh Christopher (ASU). 2nd-year head coach Stephen Silas needs to blend that youth with veterans like Wall, Gordon, Augustin and Theis. A real player to watch will be Christian Wood, who averaged 21.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG in 41 games before getting hurt. The good news? Wood comes into this season with a clean bill of health. Karl-Anthony Towns is a force to be reckoned with, coming off a season in which averaged 24.9 PPG and 10.6 RPG. SG Edwards (19.3 & 4.9) and PG Russell (19.0 & 5.8 APG) are both quality players. Minnesota didn't have a lot of room under its current salary structure to do much in the offseason but the potential for growth might come defensively (Minnesota allowed 117.3 PPG last season). Offseason additions of Patrick Beverley and Taurean Prince to Jaden McDaniels, Josh Okogie and Jarred Vanderbilt could help elevate Minnesota in the defensive rankings. Taking it all in, I see this game as a coin flip and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points. Excluding only the Sacramento Kings, the Timberwolves have become the NBA's picture of dysfunction and discord. Good luck...Larry |
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10-20-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 121-132 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Non-Conference Game of the Week is on the Cle Cavaliers at 7:05 ET. LBJ 'flew the coop' for a second time in Cleveland, after the 2017-198 season. The Cavs have gone 19-63, 19-46 and 22-50 in the three years since. However, "The Evan Mobley Era" in Cleveland Cavaliers history tips off Wednesday night when the Cavs visit the Grizzlies in Memphis. The 6-11 Mobley had a five-star high school career and then burst onto the national scene by leading USC into the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight last March (averaged 16.4 PPG on 57.8% shooting while grabbing 8.7 RPG ). Memphis finished last season 38-34 (42-30 ATS record was among the best in the NBA) and ended a three-year playoff drought (note: that drought was preceded by a seven-year postseason run!) Mobley was the third overall pick was kept under wraps most of the preseason, averaging just 25.5 minutes per game, but nonetheless still found time to lead the Cavaliers in rebounds (7.6) and blocks (1.6). Jarrett Allen (13.2 & 9.9) was retained on a long-term deal to serve as Mobley's 'bodyguard' plus the 6-11 Markkanen was acquired in a trade in August after having spent his first four seasons in Chicago, averaging 15.6 & & 7.1. Veteran PG Ricky Rubio (4th team, averaging 11.0 PPG and 7.6 APG in his career) has been imported to help inspire a young backcourt. That backcourt is led by Sexton (24.3 & 4.4) and Garland (17.4 & 6.1 APG). The Grizzlies' Jaren Jackson Jr. came into the league with much the same hype as Mobley when Memphis made him the No. 4 pick in 2018. The former Michigan State star has averaged 15.4 points in his first three seasons. Jackson missed the Grizzlies' first 56 games last year while rehabbing a knee injury suffered the previous season. He wound up taking the court just 16 times, the last two of which being arguably his best, when he averaged 18.0 points in losses to Utah in Games 4 and 5 of their first-round playoff series PG Ja Morant (19.1 & 7.4 APG) is terrific plus Dillon Brooks (17.2) and Kyle Anderson (12.4 & 5.7) are also back. A big change is the addition of center Steven Adams (just 7.6 & 8.9), who was swapped for Jonas Valanciunas (17.1 & 12.5) in a trade with the Pelicans, which I feel is a downgrade. Cleveland made some nice moves in the offseason and I expect it to compete on Opening Night. Yes, the Grizzlies still have their key pieces in place, but I think there'll be an adjustment period with Valanciunas out of the picture. Interestingly, the Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games played in this building. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-19-21 | Astros +118 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-2 | Win | 118 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET. The Astros were able to win Game 1 of the ALCS 5-4 but Houston pitching has been PULVERIZED the last two games, losing 9-5 and 12-3. Houston fell behind 8-0 by the second inning in Game 2 and then 9-0 by the third inning of Game 3, as the Red Sox became the first team ever with THREE grand slams in the same postseason series. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers each hit one in the Red Sox's Game 2 win and then Kyle Schwarber's second-inning grand slam Monday punctuated Boston's six-run second inning. Boston has hit 20 HRs this postseason, with Kike Hernandez accounted for FIVE of them en route to posting a slugging percentage of 1.028. Truth be told, this is starting to feel like a "MUST-WIN" game for the Astros. Houston manager Dusty Baker told reporters on Sunday that he was considering four different pitchers to start Game 4 after a wrath of injuries left Houston's mound corps depleted. He chose Urquidy and that didn't go too well. Now in Game 4, it's veteran Zach Greinke. Greinke won a Cy Young while at KC back in 2011 plus became an elite pitcher with stops in Milwaukee, the Angels, the Dodgers ,the D'backs and now in Houston. The veteran right-hander has pitched only once this postseason, allowing two hits during a scoreless inning of relief in the Astros' 12-6 loss to the Chicago White Sox in Game 3 of the AL Division Series. The 37-year-old was shipped to the bullpen following a mediocre regular season in which he went 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA over 30 games (29 starts). Nick Pivetta goes for Boston. He entered the season with a 21-30 career record (94 appearances / 73 starts) with a 5.40 ERA. I guess one can say this was his best season, as he was 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA in 31 appearances (30 starts) in the regular season. Pivetta has pitched out of the bullpen twice during the Red Sox's postseason run. He tossed four scoreless innings and registered seven strikeouts to pick up the win in Boston's 6-4, 13-inning victory against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. However, this marks his first career playoff start. Will the Boston bats ever 'cool off?' One would think Greinke will be out to prove something here and I'm predicting the veteran will do just that. Note that his 3.45 road ERA was about 1 1/2-runs lower than his home ERA (4.87) and that his mound opponent is entering 'uncharted waters' with this playoff start. I'll add that Pivetta's home ERA in 2021 was 5.40, 1.65 runs higher than his away ERA of 3.75. Houston ties things up here with a "W" and it's the best two-of-three the rest of the way! Good luck...Larry |
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10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic play is on the Ten Titans at 8:15 ET. Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made the AFC championship game where they lost to KC. big things were expected in 2021 but the Bills fell apart in the 4th quarter of Week 1 in a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Bills have brushed aside that loss by winning FOUR in a row, going 4-0 ATS. The Bills lead the NFL with a scoring average at 34.4 PPG, while allowing a league-low 12.8 PPG. That gives them a NFL-best point differential of 21.6 PPG. Last Monday, the Bills avenged their AFC championship game loss at KC with a dominating 38-20 win over the Chiefs and now play a second straight primetime game looking to avenge a 42-16 loss at Tennessee in Week 5 of 2020. Tennessee opened the 2021 season by getting humbled at home 38-17 by Arizona, a loss that looked shocking at the time. Of course, now that Arizona is 6-0, he doesn't look so bad. The Titans have won THREE of four since Week 1 but the lone loss was a 'UGLY' one, falling 27-24 in OT to the Jets (New York's lone win of the 2021 season). The Bills defense has been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (12.8 PGG) and in total defense (251.8 YPG). QB Josh Allen developed into an elite QB in 2020 and hasn't let up this season, completing 62.3% for 1,370 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs (102.5 QB rating). He also has 188 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 2 TDs), to contribute to a running game averaging 140.4 YPG (5th). Singletary (284 yards / 5.2 YPC) and Moss (184 yards / 4.0 YPC) are a solid RB duo. Buffalo's receiving depth is impressive, led by WRs Diggs (28 catches), the ageless Sanders (19 catches / 16.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Beasley (26 catches), plus TE Knox (18 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs). Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill is no Allen but he's a quality QB, he enters completing 63.6% for 1,251 yards with six TDs and three INTs. The second-ranked rushing attack (167.8 YPG) is led by Henry, who has run for 640 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. The Titans' receiving corps pales in comparison to Buffalo's and the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG (24th) on 377.4 YPG (23rd). On paper, the Bills are clearly the better team but this is the NFL. The Bills are primed for a letdown in this difficult road venue, especially after smashing the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in primetime last weekend. Let me add that the Bills also have their bye week next week, followed by a favorable home matchup against the Dolphins and road contests at Jacksonville and the Jets. QB Ryan Tannehill says the team's offense is trending in the right direction. The Titans are starting to heal up, especially some key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones is practicing after missing two straight games with an injured hamstring and while A.J. Brown isn't yet at 100 percent, he played last week despite a hamstring problem. Of course, Henry is the key. He has already tied his career-long streak rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games and another would tie Eddie George's string of five in 1998. Henry also has run for at least 50 yards in 30 straight games, the third-longest streak in the NFL since 1960, trailing only Priest Holmes (38 in 2001-03) and Chris Carson (31 in 1993-95). Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the pathetic AFC South and should have more than a little bit of confidence after last year's beatdown of Buffalo. Upset alert? Maybe but taking the points is the way to go. Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers -5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET. Russell Wilson underwent surgery Oct 8 on his right middle finger because of an injury sustained the previous night in a 26-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He had started all 165 games (regular season and playoffs) since arriving as a rookie in 2012 but suffered a ruptured tendon in what is often referred to as mallet finger and a fracture/dislocation of the joint at the top of the finger. Wilson is almost certain to miss the Sunday Night game at Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will make his first start since 2017. Wilson was completing 72.0% with 10 TDs and a QB rating of 125.3. According to Pete Carroll, there's NOT much to worry about. "Everybody believes that (Smith is) going to come through and do a great job, just like he showed the other night," Carroll said. "So we need to support him and give him the help he needs by playing good ball around him and coaching real well around him and be really excited to see what the outcome is. I think there's a lot of things that change in a young guy's mind when he gets this opportunity, but (Smith has) been there a lot. It's just been awhile. ... He loves the fact that he's got this chance to help his team. That's why he's been here. He's been here for this opportunity when it does arise." OK, Pete. Smith has played in 42 NFL games, making 31 starts (teams are 12-19). He's completing just 57.9% (that's close to 72%, right) with a TD-to-INT ratio of 30/37 and a QB rating of 73.0 (just barely below 125.0, right?). Wilson has led Seattle to playoff appearances in EIGHT of his first nine years in the league but at 2-3, the Seahawks are in some trouble here in 2021, as Arizona (5-0) is the NFL's lone unbeaten and the Rams are 4-1, having already beaten Seattle (Rams also have given Tampa Bay its lone loss). RB Carson had run for 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDS but missed the previous game (neck injury). He has missed practice time this week, but Carroll said he was encouraged by Carson's progress. Have to give it to Pete, he's an optimist. WRs Lockett (15.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Metcalf (145.3 YPC / 5 TDs0 have each caught 25 passes but are they still "Lockett and Metcalf" without Wilson? Then there is the Seattle defense, which allows 145.2 YPG on the ground to rank 31st and 305.6 YPG through the air to rank 30th. Add it up and Seattle allows a league-high 450.8 YPG. The Steelers are also 2-3 as they welcome Seattle to Heinz Field and also find some tough competition in their own division. Baltimore is 4-1, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are both 3-2. The Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the 4th quarter of their season-opening 23-16 win in Buffalo but then lost THREE in a row. Pittsburgh may have 'saved' its season with last week's 27-19 home win over Denver. Alabama rookie RB Harris had a "breakout game," running for 122 yards on 5.3 YPC with a TD. He's got 307 yards on the season and is the team's leading receiver with 28 receptions. Big Ben is still around (63.6%, averaging 259.0 YPG with 6 TDs and 4 INTs) but he's NOT the same player these days. He had three very good WRs but JuJu Smith-Schuster sustained a dislocated shoulder last Sunday and underwent season-ending surgery Wednesday. Claypool has 20 catches on 17.0 YPC plus Johnson has 25 catches with three TDs. The Pittsburgh D is no longer called "The Steel Curtain" but it is allowing 22.4 PPG, which ranks 10th. I see this as a fantastic opportunity for the Steelers to build off last week's 29-17 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh will be able to "leave everything on the field" Sunday night, as it will go into its bye next weekend (followed by a very tough road game in Cleveland). A win here and Pittsburgh can reasonably think playoffs. A loss and I'm not so sure. I have found that sometimes a "common sense" approach to handicapping a game works best, and that's the case here for me with Seattle. No Wilson, BIG problem (sorry Geno!). Meanwhile, it's a great chance for Big Ben to "turn back the clock" against Seattle's sieve-like defense and keep his team in playoff contention (consideration, at least). I expect him to make the most of this opportunity and note that Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and that's WITH Russell! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos OVER 43 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 63 h 50 m | Show |
My NFL 9* Featured Sunday O/U is on LV/Den Over at 4:25 ET. Las Vegas opened the season with three straight victories, beating the Ravens 33-27 in overtime, the Steelers 26-17 and the Dolphins 31-28 in overtime as well. However, the Raiders then lost a Monday Nighter 28-14 at the LA Chargers, before last week's 20-9 home loss to the Bears. The Raiders travel to Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos, who have had a similar start to the season. The Broncos also won their first three games, beating the Giants 27-13, the Jaguars 23-13, and the Jets 26-0. However, Denver has struggled the last two weeks, falling 23-7 to the Ravens and 27-19 to the Steelers. Both teams are 3-2, ONE game behind the 4-1 Chargers and ONE game up on the Chiefs 9KC has won the AFC West FIVE straight years!). |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Cle Browns at 4:05 ET. Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's QB and was then the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The following season, Kyler Murray stepped in as Oklahoma's QB and won the 2018 Heisman and then became the 2019 NFL Draft's No.1 pick. The former No. 1 overall draft picks and college teammates square off for the second time in three years when the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals visit Cleveland to take on the 3-2 Browns on Sunday. Murray's been the key to Arizona's first 5-0 start since 1974 (team was located in St Louis back then), while Mayfield led the browns into the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and has helped position them as a division contender again in 2021 in the AFC North. |
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10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. A pair of 4-1 teams square off in Baltimore on Sunday, as the Chargers take on the Ravens. It's no surprise that the Ravens are 4-1 and atop the AFC Central but the Chargers leading the AFC West IS a surprise. MUCH has happened in the AFC West since last Sunday, as while the Chargers outscored the Browns 47-42 (to get to 4-1), the Broncos and Raiders each lost for the second straight week (both are now 3-2), plus the five-time defending AFC West champs (KC) were humbled 38-20 by the Bills, falling into last-place at 2-3. Then earlier this week, Jon Gruden resigned as head coach of the Raiders to join the 'Mel Gibson Club!' After just five games, Brandon Staley looks to be the best of all the first year head coaches in the NFL this season and is at least a HUGE upgrade from Anthony Lynn. QB Justin Herbert had a superb rookie season and has made the term 'sophomore jinx' irrelevant, completing 67.2% for 1,576 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He enters off back-to-back games in which he's thrown five TD passes without an interception. RB Austin Ekeler has developed into a terrific all-purpose player, rushing for 349 yards on 5.2 YPC with four TDs, while adding 23 catches for three more TDs. Herbert has a duo of excellent WRs in Williams (31 catches on 15.2 YC with 6 TDs) and Allen, who has a team-high 34 catches (he has caught 403 passes the last four seasons!). TE Cook is solid, with 17 receptions and a 12.4 YPC average. LA's defensive numbers don't look too bad on paper (23.2 PPG allowed ranks 12th on 371.8 YPG that ranks 189th) but I'm not sold. The Chargers D will have to try to slow down former MVP Lamar Jackson, who has completed 67.1% and thrown for almost as many yards as Herbert (1,519). He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio plus adds a dimension no other QB can. He's run for 341 yards on 6.1 YPC with four TDs. Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the start of the season, Baltimore is still averaging 148.8 YPG (4th). TE Andrews leads the team with 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) and WR Brown has 28 (16.1 YPC and 5 TDs). Fellow WR Watkins (18 catches / 13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) did not practice on Wednesday, after leaving in the first half of Monday's game due to a thigh injury. The Baltimore D is not the dominant unit of years past but ranks 11th (not bad), allowing 23.4 PPG. and did not return. No doubt that the Chargers are greatly improved and that Brandon Staley looks like a quality NFL head coach but it's not exactly John Harbaugh's 'first rodeo.' The Ravens 'gave away' their Week 1 game at Las Vegas (lost in OT to the Raiders) but Baltimore has won four in a row since, including wins over AFC West teams the Chiefs and Broncos. While the Chargers were winning a 47-42 shootout with the Browns last Sunday, Jackson led the Ravens back from a 25-9 deficit against the Colts by directing two, 4th-quarter TD drives of 78 and 75 yards, converting BOTH two-point conversions. Jackson then led the Ravens on a 68-yard TD drive to win 31-25 in OT. I'm taking not only Jackson over Herbert but more importantly, Harbaugh over Staley. The Ravens are 20-6 SU at home under Jackson and at this price, a win VERY likely will earn a cover! Good luck...Larry |
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10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 6, find themselves 2-3 and in last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Both the Broncos and Raiders are 3-2, while the Chargers sit atop the division at 4-1. KC is off a humbling 38-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday night and will visit Washington on Sunday. Washington won the NFC East last season with a 7-9 record but here in 2021, the team will need to do MUCH better than that to keep pace with the Cowboys, who are 4-1 and their ATS record of 5-0 seems to prove this year's Dallas team is no fluke. |
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10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET. Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona. |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET. Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that! |
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10-16-21 | Toledo v. Central Michigan OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -112 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Featured Saturday O/U is on Toledo/Central Michigan Over at 3:30 ET Toledo and Central Michigan are both 3-3 (1-1 in the MAC), as both teams meet Saturday in Mount Pleasant hungry for a win. Toledo smashed Norfolk in its opener 49-10, but then it suffered back-to-back losses, falling 32-29 at Notre Dame (excellent effort) and then 22-6 to Colorado State. The Rockets then bounced-back with victories over Ball State and UMass, before last week's 22-20 loss to NIU (a 'killer,' as the Huskies kicked the game-winning FG with 26 seconds remaining). CMU lost 34-24 to Missouri in its opener, before hammering Robert Morris 45-0. The Chips then lost to LSU 49-21, beat FIU 31-27 and lost 28-7 to Miami Ohio. Last Saturday's 30-27 win over Ohio came with CMU scoring the game's final 10 points.
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET. 4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game. |
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10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 20-15 | Push | 0 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.
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10-16-21 | Rutgers v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET. Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games. To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10. Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th). Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. Brady Hoke coached SD State in 2009 and 2010, leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 season in 2010, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. He left for Michigan but after an 11-2 season in 2011, things fell apart quickly. He was fired after four seasons, going 6-10 in the Big Ten his last two seasons. He would wind up back at SD State as an assistant under Rocky Long and took over for Long when he retired after the 2019 season. Hoke's first season back was 2020's COVID season and the Aztecs went just 4-4, ending a run of 10 straight bowl appearances that had started with Hoke's 2010 team. SD State was expected to contend for the MWC title in 2021 but the team's 5-0 start (entered top-25 two weeks ag0) is somewhat of a surprise. The Aztecs will play on the road the next two weeks, at San Jose St this Friday and at Air Force on Oct 23. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. A 37-31 win over New Mexico State followed but last Saturday, the Spartans fell behind early at Colorado St and was never really in the game in a 32-14 loss. SD St is led offensively by a running game that averages 241.4 YPG (13th) on 5.3 YPC. Greg Bell has 520 yards rushing (5.5 YPC and five TDs). Both Brookshire (47.4% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) and Johnson (53.7% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) have played at QB. Neither has been effective, as SD St averages 128.8 YPG passing to rank 125th in the nation. The team's leading receiver (Bellinger) has seven catches, although he is averaging 23.3 YPC. Running the ball and a stout defense has been the key for SD State, with the Aztecs allowing 16.6 PPG (16th) on 270.4 YPG (6th). Spartans QB Starkel played very well in 2020 (17 TDs / 7 INTs) but has flopped in 2021 (50.4% with 6 TDs and 5 INTs). Sophomore Nick Nash replaced him against New Mexico St and helped lead the Spartans to the win, completing 15 of 18 for 193 yards with three TDs (0 INTs). He was just 11 of 22 for 154 yards vs CSU but did have two TD passes (one INT). He looks like the best choice now. RB Tyler Nevens ran for 515 yards on 7.8 YPC in eight games last season and has 406 on 5.5 YPC after six games in 2020. The San Jose St defense is allowing 23.8 PPG on 369.5 PPG (rank 63rd in each category). I believe that SD St is getting a little too much credit here and as noted above, has a 'testing' two-game stretch in which the Aztecs will have to be cautious to not get caught "looking ahead" to their game at Air Force next weekend (5-1 as of this writing). Sure SD State is the better defensive team but I will note that the Spartans did force CSU into settling for SIX field goals last weekend. This is just SD State's SECOND road game this season, winning 38-14 at Arizona. FYI...The Wildcats are 0-5 in 2021 and are currently on a 17-game losing streak! Maybe not a SU win but the TD or more in points sure looks 'juicy!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* ALCS Opener is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET. It's Boston vs Houston in the ALCS. Ironically, Boston manager Alex Cora serves as "the tie that binds" the Red Sox and Astros. He was the Astros' bench coach for their World Series title-winning team in 2017 and the Red Sox's manager during their championship-winning season the following year. His involvement in the cheating scandal saw him suspended for the 2020 season. Houston manager AJ Hinch was fired at Houston and veteran Dusty Baker was brought in. Cora has won all EIGHT postseason series in which he's been involved, 3-0 as Houston's bench coach in 2017 and now 5-0 with Boston. Baker has had a long and storied managerial career (he ranks 12th in all-time wins) but he's the ONLY manager in that top-12, who has NEVER won a World Series title.
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants -104 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 4 is on the SF Giants at 9:07 ET. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants are going head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR last Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1.
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina. |
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10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -154 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 3 is on the LA Dodgers at 9:07 ET. Starting in Brooklyn's Ebbets Field & Upper Manhattan's Polo Grounds before moving to "The City of Angels" & the "City by the Bay," the Dodgers/Giants rivalry ranks with the best in ANY sport. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants go head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1. The Giants drew 'first blood' with a 1-0 win in Game 1 (I had the Giants) but the Dodgers rebounded with a 9-2 win in Game 2. (I had the Dodgers). I sat out Game 3, as the Giants won a second game in the series by a 1-0 score and now the defending champs need to win Game 4 (at home) and Game 5 in San Francisco, to keep their chances of repeating alive! The Giants will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound on Tuesday, while Tony Gonsolin (4-1, 3.23 ERA) was listed as the Dodgers' Game 4 starter but LA manager Dave Roberts said all options would be considered for this win-or-go-home contest. In the late afternoon, he switched to Walker Buehler, coming back on short rest. DeSclafani had a "career year" in 2021 for the Giants. He began the season (his 7th in MLB) with a 37-39 record and 4.29 ERA) but won 13 games (just seven losses) with a 3.17 ERA (a full run lower than his career ERA) and a 1.09 WHIP. The Giants went 21-10 in his starts, giving him a +$923 moneyline mark (7th-best). LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season plus LA's bullpen has a 1.46 ERA in four playoff games! Buehler lasted 6.1 innings in Game 1 and allowed three ERs entered that contest with a 7-1 (2.49 ERA) career record over the Dodgers in 11 starts (LA is 8-3). Buehler was 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .199 BAA during the regular season. DeSclafani was 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA in six starts against the Dodgers in 2021. Note, SF did win all three of his no-decisions but his career record of 1-8 with a 5.84 ERA in 12 starts against LA hardly inspires confidence. Nor does the fact that this marks DeSclafani's first-ever postseason start. We are headed back to San Francisco for Game 5 on Thursday. Good luck...Larry |
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10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* O/U of the Week is on Mil/Atl Over at 5:15 ET. Full, detailed analysis Tuesday by 12 noon ET. |