Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-09-20 | Yankees -149 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -149 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Division Series Game of the Year is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays went an AL-Best 40-20 during the regular season and captured the AL East title for the first time since 2010. In the process, the Rays took EIGHT of 10 from the Yankees but I doubt anyone on Tampa Bay expected their ALDS with their hated rivals would be a 'walk in the park.' The Yankees won 9-3 ion Game 1, while the Rays rebounded to win Games 2 and 3, 7-5 and 8-4. However, the Yankees didn't flinch under the pressure of an elimination game, as Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres hit impressive HRs, while Jordan Montgomery and three relievers combined on a three-hitter. The Yankees beat the Rays 5-1 Thursday night to even the best-of-5 series at 2-all. The Yankees are trying to reach the ALCS for the THIRD time in four seasons following eliminations by the Astros at that stage in 2017 and last season. Meanwhile, the Rays are trying to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2008, when they made it to their only World Series. Somewhat ironically, the pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow is a rematch of last year's ALDS Game 5 between Houston and Tampa Bay. Cole pitched eight innings of one-run ball for the Astros in a 5-1 victory. while Glasnow was allowed four runs early, getting pulled after getting just EIGHT outs! Cole allowed three ERs over six innings of Game 1 with eight Ks and was backed by four HRs as the Yankees won 9-3 in the series opener. Glasnow had 10Ks in just five innings of Game 2 but allowed four ERs. However, the Rays won 7-5. Then again, don't ignore the fact that Game 2 was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow pitches. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision. I'm NOT sure why MLB decided to play the four Division Series WITHOUT a day off (Championship Series will be contested without any days off, as well), as it has taxed the pitching staffs of all teams and in particular any that are forced to "go the distance." That's the case here with the Rays and Yanks. Cole will pitch on three days' rest for the FIRST in his career, while Glasnow is being asked to pitch on TWO days' rest. Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December and a game like this is why the Yankees signed him. Cole was DOMINANT in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and he's pitched Game 1 of New York's first two postseason series in 2020 and while his ERA of 3.46 is higher than expected, DON'T ignore that he's had 21 Ks against just two walks, while the Yankees have won 12-3 and 9-3. Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros last season, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. In two postseason starts in 2020, the Rays have won both and Glasnow owns an 18-3 KW ratio but he's also allowed six ERs over 11 innings (4.91 ERA). With a shortened season, Cole has NOT been overworked and while I'm no fan of working on three days' rest, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt (plenty of other big time pitchers have come through in situations like this over the last decade). However, Glasnow pitching on two days' rest makes absolutely NO sense to me and makes me wonder just how "little faith" Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has in Blake Snell. Yankees win and set up a Houston/New York ALCS which should be a real "grudge match!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-08-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Night Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET. You may just have heard that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady in the offseason hoping the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback could help them end a 12-year playoff drought. The 43-year-old Brady saw his production dip in his 20th and final season in New England but was able to sign a two-year, fully guaranteed $50 million contract with the Bucs. He was 'off' in Tampa Bay's season-opening loss at New Orleans, as he had two badly-thrown INTs, one of which was returned for a TD in a 34-23 loss. However, he's led the Bucs to THREE straight wins since that defeat, completing 65.5% with nine TDs and just two INTs. The Bucs have averaged 32.3 PPG in their winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 13 points! The Bucs are in Chicago Thursday night for a game with the Bears, who opened the season 3-0, before struggling badly on offense in a 19-11 Week 4 loss at home to the Colts. The game wasn't as close as the final indicates, as the Bears trailed 19-3 before scoring a TD (and added a two-point conversion) with just 1:35 left in the game. Nick Foles replaced the obviously overrated Trubisky in Week 3 vs the Falcons, rallying the Bears from a 26-10 deficit to a 30-26 win. Foles threw three TD passes in the final 6 1/2 minutes of that contest but couldn't get the Bears into the end zone last Sunday until just under two minutes to go. In fairness, the Colts do own the NFL best defense early on in NFL 2020, allowing league-lows in points (14.0 per) and total yards (236.3 per). Brady lost his favorite target in 2020, as TE Howard was lost for the season in last week's game. However, stepping in at TE will be a familiar face to Brady, Rob Gronkowski. WR Evans has loved the acquisition of Brady, grabbing 17 receptions with five TDs. Also, Miller (15 catches / 16.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Godwin (11 catches / 13.0 YPC / 1 TD) also not exactly slouches. RB Jones is off a very good season and is rounding into form with 253 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 12 catches. Brady loves to use his RBs as receivers and Sean McCoy (nine catches) and Leonard Fournette (seven catches) are reaping the benefits. Foles played a Super Bowl for the ages when he led the Eagles to a 41-33 win against the Patriots (and Brady) in Super Bowl LII. He was the game's MVP completing 28-of-43 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns plus caught a 1-yard TD pass on the “Philly Special" trick play that ranks as one of the most famous plays in NFL history. However, Foles has NEVER reached those heights again and will likely NEVER do so again. The Bears have a modest running game and it was all but completely shut down by the Colts, who held them to 28 rushing yards on 16 carries. Other than Allen Robinson (25 catches / 13.2 YPC / 2 TDs), the Bears have no receivers of note. Yes, the Bears opened 3-0 but those wins came over the Lions, Giants and Falcons, who have combined to go 1-11 SU. I doubt Brady is thinking "Super Bowl revenge" against Foles, but one never knows. What we do know is that when Brady overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31 last week, he became the NFL's all-time regular-season victories leader (222), regardless of position. In the Bears, Brady will face a team that's never beaten him, as he's 5-0 with 1,595 passing yards, 14 TD passes and just four interceptions against Chicago. All in all, the Bucs seem like a strong play as a small road favorite in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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10-08-20 | Rays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 4) is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1 (9-3 New York win), while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 giving him five HRs in his team's first four playoff games (tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez of the Rangers, in1996) but the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 plus more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. That allowed Tampa Bay to win 7-5 and even the series at one-all. Giancarlo Stanton hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning of Game 3 to become the first player with a HR in each of his team's first five games of a single postseason (has six HRs and 13 RBI in those five games) but it wasn't enough, The Rays' Randy Arozarena homered for the THIRD straight game on Wednesday, while Kevin Kiermaier and Michael Perez also went deep for the Rays, who beat Yankees 8-4 to move within one victory of reaching the ALCS for the first time in 12 years. |
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10-07-20 | Rays +114 v. Yankees | Top | 8-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 3) is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 and has now hit five HRs this postseason, tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez (Rangers, 1996) for HRs by a player in his team's first four playoff games. However, the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 and more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. Starter Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and four runs in five-plus innings, while walking three. His 10 strikeouts surpass the previous Rays postseason record of nine done three times. It was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow started. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision. It's now Game 3 of the best-of-five series with the teams tied at one game apiece. The Rays will 'play the road team' in this one and send Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA in the regular season) to the mound, while the Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA). Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. His 2020 season has been a disappointment. He went 0-1 (0-2) in two July starts with an 8.00 ERA but the rest of his regular season may have gone better than most people think. The Rays won FIVE of his last seven starts, never allowing more than three ERs in any start (3.72 ERA). Morton is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Yankees and this will be his first postseason start of 2020 (last start was Sep 24 vs Philly). However, he is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA in nine all-time playoff appearances (eight starts). This is Tanaka's SEVENTH season with New York. He was 75-43 (.636) his first six seasons (3.75 ERA and 1,13 WHIP). Season 7 has not measured up. He made 10 regular season starts, going 3-3 with 3.56 ERA (1.17 WHIP) as the Yanks were just 5-5. He started Game 2 of the Yankees wild card series with Cleveland and lasted only four innings, allowing five hits, three walks and six ERs (Yanks won anyway, 10-9!). Tanaka has an 11-5 career mark and 3.31 ERA in 21 starts versus the Rays. He also is no stranger to the postseason, making nine starts with a 5-3 record and 2.70 ERA. Not sure what NYY manager Bob Boone was doing with Garcia in Game 1. He became the youngest starter in NYY postseason history at 21 years old, 140 days and threw 27 pitches (16 strikes) and allowed one hit, a solo shot but was pulled after ONE inning. Say what? TB manager Kevin Cash has one of MLB's best and deepest bullpens (3.37 bullpen ERA led all AL teams this regular season. I favor Morton over Tanaka but 'LOVE' the Rays bullpen over the Yankees. Good luck...Larry |
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10-06-20 | Lakers -7 v. Heat | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Miami Heat reached this year's NBA Finals as the East's No. 5 to face the LA Lakers, the West's No. 1 seed. Miami is the first team seeded fifth or lower to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded New York Knicks lost to San Antonio in 1999. The last team seeded fifth or lower to win an NBA title was Houston in 1995, when it beat Orlando as the West's No. 6 seed. Miami used a 13-0 run to take a 23-10 lead midway through the opening period of Game 1 but it was ALL Lakers after that. Anthony Davis scored 34 points and added nine rebounds, while LBJ had 25 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists, as the Lakers cruised to a 116-98 win. The Lakers outrebounded Miami 54-36, led by as many as 32 points and made 15 three-pointers. Adding insult to injury, Miami PG Goran Dragic left in the second quarter with a torn plantar fascia in his left foot and PF/C Bam Adebayo left in the third quarter with a shoulder strain. LBJ scored 33 points with nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 2, while Davis made 14 of his first 15 shots on the way to 32 points, as the Lakers beat the short-handed Miami Heat 124-114 (no Dragic and Adebayo). James and Davis were the first Lakers duo to score at least 32 points in a finals game since Game 3 against New Jersey in 2002, when Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant did it. However, the Heat (still without Dragic and Adebayo) "came up big" and beat the Lakers 115-104 in Game 3. Miami's starters outscored the Lakers' starting five 89-51 and Jimmy Butler played "the game of his life," with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Butler became the 21st player to have a triple-double in the NBA Finals but it was just the third 40-point triple-double in Finals history. Now, it's time for Game 4 on Tuesday. Do we have a series? The Heat come in with a renewed sense of confidence as they look to even the best-of-seven series. "We're going to win," Heat swingman Jimmy Butler said of Game 4. "We're going to compete. We're not going to lay down; we're going to fight back in this thing and even it up 2-2." Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said of his star's big performance after Game 3, "How else do you say it other than Jimmy effing Butler," "This was a very urgent game, and he was doing it on both ends of the court. Just put his imprint on every important part of the game." Alrighty then! Meet Jimmy Butler, the incarnation of MJ. A quick reality check of his playoff history, pre-2020. He had appeared in SEVEN postseasons (for three different teams, Bulls, T-wolves and Sixers) with those teams winning THREE of 10 series, going 24-34 (.414). LBJ played a typical game in Sunday's loss (25-10-8), as he's averaging 27.7-10.7-9.0 through three games. However, the Lakers committed 10 turnovers in the first quarter alone in Game 3, one more than they had total in Game 2. They finished the contest with 20, James being responsible for eight and Anthony Davis five. Davis, after scoring 34 and 32 points in the first two games, took just NINE shots and finished with only 15 points. LA's other three starters (Howard, Green and Caldwell-Pope), combined for a pathetic11 points on 3-0f-13 shooting (23.1%). LA's complementary players have been an on-and-off situation all season but let me note that the Lakers haven't dropped back-to-back games all postseason. My bet says they don't start here vs a 'wounded' Heat team, even though Miami features "the INCOMPARABLE" Jimmy Butler. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays -116 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout (Part 2) is on the TB Rays at 8:10 ET. Game 1 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Rays was expected to be a pitchers duel between Cole and Snell. That wasn't the case. Cole was solid but hardly spectacular (6 IP/ 3 ERs / 8 Ks) and Snell had a less-than-impressive outing ( 5 IP / six hits, including 3 HRs / 4 ERs). It was 4-3 Yanks into the 9th when New York broke the game open on the strength of Stanton's grand slam. The Yanks would score FIVE runs in the top of the 9th for a 9-3 win and a 1-0 series lead. The Bronx Bombers became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. New York's goal in Game 2, after recording 31 runs and a major league-record 11 HRs in their first three postseason contests, is to push the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays to the brink of elimination on Tuesday in Game 2 of the best-of-five ALDS. The starting pitching matchup is New York's 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), going up against Tampa Bay's 27-year-old Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Garcia's made just SIX starts in 2020 and earned his first career win Sep 9 at Toronto, 7-2 (7 IP / 2 ERs). That win was VERY noteworthy, as it snapped New York's five-game losing streak and a stretch in which the Yankees had lost 15 of 20, falling to the edge of the expanded playoff field. The Yankees made the postseason with room to spare but in Garcia's final three starts of 2020, he pitched 16.2 innings, allowing 21 hits and 13 ERs for a 7.02 ERA. Tampa Bay will counter with 6-foot-8 right-hander Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow opened 0-0 (team was 1-2) over his first three starts of 2020 (5.56 ERA) but he allowed just two EERs or less in SIX of his last eight regular season starts (allowed three and four ERs in the other two, as the Rays won ALL eight of those starts. He then made up for his poor 2019 playoff starts, by pitching six innings and allowing just two ERs if an 8-2 Tampa Bay win that closed out the Blue Jays 2-0 in the wild card round. He'll take the mound tonight with the Rays having won his last NINE starts. 10 straight makes for a nice round number and that's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 4:37 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs. The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years. The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but fell in Game 1 of this ALDS Monday night, 10-5. The teams combined for six home HRs (three each) but the Astros out-hit the A's 16-8, overcoming a 5-3 deficit to score the game's final SEVEN runs from the 6th-inning on. It's a matchup of left-handed starters in Game 2, Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) for Houston and Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.50 ERA) for Oakland. Valdez made 11 appearances in 2020, including 10 starts (team was 6-4). However, he gets the nod in this one because he pitched five scoreless innings in relief of Zack Greinke for the victory in Game 1 vs the Twins, keeping the bullpen fresh for the rest of the series. Valdez became the first reliever with five shutout innings in a playoff game since Madison Bumgarner did so for the Giants in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series. Manaea did not pitch in Oakland's 2-1 series win over the Chicago White Sox in the wild-card round and will take the mound for the first time since his last regular season start, which was back on Sep 23. Ironically, that Sep 23rd start came right here at Dodgers Stadium, when he beat LA 6-4, allowing three ERs in six innings. Manaea won 12 games in back-to-back seasons for Oakland in 2017 and 2018 (no-hit the Red Sox on 4/21/18) but was limited to just FIVE starts in 2019 after rehabbing from shoulder surgery that took place in Sep of 2018. However, he made his 2019 season debut in September and went 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP (30 Ks in 29 .2 innings. Big things were expected in 2020 but he flopped in his first four starts, going 0-2 (team was 1-3) with a 9.00 ERA. However, Manaea has gone 4-1 over his last seven starts (team is 6-1), posting a 2.77 ERA. He's Oakland's best starter but for some reason, has yet to be used this postseason. The A's are basically in a "must-win" situation and it's my belief (bet) that they have the "right man for the job!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-20 | Yankees -141 v. Rays | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYY Yankees at 8:07 ET. I don't want to compare the Yankees/Rays rivalry with the Red Sox/Yankees but the disdain the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees share for each other is hardly a secret. Tampa Bay claimed its third-ever division title by winning EIGHT of 10 meetings, outscoring them 47-34. Tensions boiled over in the ninth inning of New York's 5-3 win back on Sep 1 at Yankee Stadium, when closer Aroldis Chapman threw a 101 mph fastball up and in at infielder Michael Brosseau's head, nearly prompting a benches-clearing incident. Now, after some hostile moments in the regular season, the stakes are significantly higher in this five-game ALDS being played in San Diego. Petco Park has been known as a pitchers' park and it seems only fitting that the team's two aces will square off. Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA in the regular season) takes the mound for New York, while Tampa Bay counters with Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA). You may have heard that Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December. The Yanks won his first five starts of 2020, lost his next four and then won his last three. Cole would go 3-0 while pitching seven innings in each one of his final three regular season starts. He gave up a modest 10 hits over those 21 innings and two ERs for a 0.67 ERA and a 24-3 KW ratio. He then was DOMINANT in New York's 12-3 rout of Cleveland (and likely Cy Young winner Shane Bieber). while Bieber got "Bronx-bombered" (allowed 7 ERs over 4.2 innings) and Cole allowed two runs in seven innings with 13 Ks against not a single walk! Snell won the AL's Cy Young award in 2018, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .178 BAA, He was Tampa's Opening Day starter for the 2019 season and defeated Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros. 5–1. However, he was placed on the injured list on April 16 after breaking a toe on his right foot while moving furniture in his bathroom and missed two starts. He returned but on July 25 it was announced that Snell would undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Due to multiple trips to the disabled list, Snell finished with a 6–8 record last season (4.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / .241 BAA). Snell's been healthy this season, going 4-2 (3.24 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .228 BAA) in 11 starts, with the Rays going 7-4 in those starts. Cole was not very good vs the Rays in three tries in 2020, taking a no-decision in an 8-4 Yankee win and then losing the next two, He's 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA in nine career starts vs the Rays (teams are 5-4). Snell has n]made two starts vs the Yankees in 2020, pitching just three innings in a 1-0 Tampa Bay win and then five innings while allowing three ERs in a 6-3 victory. However, he's just 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts vs New York (team is 9-9). Cole was DOMINATE in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and then was terrific in his showdown with Bieber. As for Snell, he pitched 5.2 scoreless Indians in Game 1 vs Toronto (9-2 KW ratio) but that was just his fourth postseason appearance (2nd start). He owns a 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP but he's pitched just 11 postseason innings. The 'Big Dog' here is Cole and he's my play. Good luck...Larry |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Game 1 Series Opener is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs. The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years. The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but it should be noted that they had the advantage of getting eight of the 10 games at home because of a joint walk-out on a scheduled game at Houston on Aug. 28 and a coronavirus-caused postponement two days later. Zack Greinke was considered to be the logical choice for Houston in Game 1 but instead it will be Lance McCullers Jr (5-3, 3.93 ERA). The A's will counter with Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 ERA). McCullers has made 93 career appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 3202 numbers (over 11 starts) are pretty much in line with his career ones but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers has made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. Yes, this is a neutral site, but his stats AWAY from his home park HAVE to be worrisome. Now look at Bassitt. He made 11 starts in 2020 (record above), with the A's going an impressive 8-3 in those contests. Most notably, he came up HUGE in Game 2 of the wild card series with the A's facing elimination. He gave the A's seven strong innings (7 IP / 1 ER) of a must-have 5-3 victory. That shouldn't have come as a surprise, as in four September starts he was 3-0 (team was 4-0) with a 0.34 ERA and a 25-5 KW ratio. A's grab the Game 1 win. Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season and opened the 2020 season by taking a 17-0 lead over Washington in Week 1. However, NOTHING has gone right since that time. Washington would score that game's final 27 points, as the Eagles lost 27-17 to a team that went 3-13 in 2019 and has lost both games this season since beating the Eagles by 15 and 14 points (allowed 30 and 24 points). The 49ers were in last year's Super Bowl and held a 20-10 lead over KC with under 6 1/2 minutes left in the game. However, the Chiefs 'exploded' for three TDs in just a five-minute span, for a 31-20 victory. The Niners were upset at home in Week 1 by the Arizona Cardinals 24-20, as a seven-point favorite. San Francisco has rebounded with back-to-back wins the last two Sundays 31-13 and 36-9 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium against the pathetic Jets and Giants (a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS). Philly QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL at 63.9 and has already thrown six interceptions. RB Miles Sanders missed Week 1 but has returned to rush for 190 yards (5.0 YPC) and one TD, while catching seven passes for 48 yards. He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Wentz has a dynamic TE duo, Ertz (15 catches / one TD) and Goedert (13 catches / one TD). However, the Philly defense HAS to improve, as the Eagles have not forced a SINGLE turnovers on defense through 13 quarters this season (Eagles did recover a fumble on a punt return last week). Jimmy G got hurt in Week 2 and remains out. Nick Mullens started in Week 3, completing 25 of 36 for 343 yards with one TD and zero INTs (108.9 QB rating). Top RB Mostert remains out and McKinnon gets the call again. He's gained 139 yards (6.9 YPC) with two TDs so far but had just 38 yards on 14 attempts in Week 3. The Niners have dealt with key injuries this season, including Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, CB Richard Sherman, 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, RB Mostert and No. 1 receiver Deebo Samuel. The good news is that Kittle and Samuel will be back this week. The bad news is that TE Jordan Reed (11 catches with two TDs) joined RB Tevin Coleman on injured reserve. "Right now we're not a very good football team," Philly head coach Doug Pederson said. "We're not very smart. We're shooting ourselves in the foot. We're leaving touchdowns on the field offensively, and we're just not executing." I'm NOT ready to give up on Wentz. Facing an 0-3 start for the first time since 1999 last Sunday, Wentz drove the Eagles 75 yards in the final three minutes. He picked up nine yards on third-and-6 to the Bengals 19 and then ran in from the seven with a head-first dive into the end zone. Elliott's extra point tied it with 21 seconds left. However, neither team could do anything in overtime. San Francisco has been a poor home favorite, going just 7-17-1 ATS in that role its last 25 tries. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Bills v. Raiders +3.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 54 m | Show |
My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET. The Buffalo Bills are one of seven NFL teams still unbeaten (3-0) and will travel to Las Vegas in Week 4 for a game with the 2-1 Raiders. The Bills blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead last Sunday at home against the Rams but then got 'bailed out' by a 'phantom' defensive pass-interference call that allowed Josh Allen to complete a three-yard TD pass with 15 seconds to go (Bills won 35-32). Meanwhile, the Raiders lost for the first time in 2020, falling 36-20 in New England to the Pats. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. Buffalo has won its first three games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1991-92. Most would say that QB Josh Allen has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career in 2018 and 2019 but as I've noted before, he did become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. What all will agree upon is that here in 2020, he's taken his game to another level. He's completing 71.1% for 1,038 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 124.8). The acquisition of WR Stefon Diggs (formerly of the Vikings) has been HUGE. Diggs has 20 catches and two TDs plus along with returning WRs Beasley (15 catches / 15.4 YPC) and Brown (10 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Allen has quite a trio. A concern is Buffalo's defense, which after allowing just 16.2 PPG in 2019, has allowed 25.7 PPG after three games of 2020. Jon Gruden is in his second stint with the Raiders, with a stop in between in Tampa Bay with the Bucs (won the Super Bowl in his first season back in the 2002 season) and a VERY successful career in the TV booth. The Raiders were just 4-12 in his first season (2018) and 7-9 last season, However, the Raiders are now playing out of Las Vegas and things are looking up, although they do play in the AFC West with the KC Chiefs. QB Derek Carr has looked VERY good through three games, completing 74.0% for 784 yards with six TDs and zero INTs in 100 attempts (QB rating of 116.4). RB Josh Jacobs had a terrific rookie season (1,150 yards on 4.7 YPC with 7 TDs) and while his start is more modest in 2020 (252 yards on 3.7 YPC with 3 TDs), this guy is "a player!" TE Waller is Carr's top target with 20 catches (just one TD) but he's averaging only 7.9 YPC (that HAS to improve). Defense has not been a Las Vegas strength, as the Raiders are allowing 30.0 PPG on 406. YPG. I have great respect for the Bills but the Raiders beat the Saints in their only previous game in their brand-new stadium, 34-24 back in Week 2 on MNF. Buffalo's defense allowed Miami to score 28 and the Rams to score 32 (no one counts team's win over the Jets) and Carr and the Raiders can match scores with Allen and the Bills. I'm backing the home dog, as the Bills suffer their first loss of 2020. Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team OVER 45 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 14 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Bal/Was Over at 1:00 ET. Here's part of what I wrote in taking KC over Baltimore when those two teams met last Monday night. "It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG)." I closed with this. "The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson is 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, TWO of those losses have come against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points." The result was a 34-20 KC win, Jackson completed just 53.6% of his passes for 97 yards and ran for 83 but with zero TDs. The Baltimore defense gave up 35 points and 29 FDs, while allowing 517 yards. Now other than playing home games in Maryland, there are few similarities between the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Football Team. Washington finished 3-13 in 2019, the worst record in the NFC and is nothing more than a rebuilding team in 2020. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but scored the game's final 27 points. Washington had eight sacks and forced three TOs, while its scoring drives covered 45, 20, 26, 48 and 20 yards. Since that Week 1 win, Washington's allowed 30 and 34 points in losses to Arizona and Cleveland. The Ravens entered Monday night on an 11-1 ATS run in which they have averaged 34.8 PPG. I see no way that Baltimore won't top that average in this contest, against a weak Washington defense. That means Washington won't have to contribute too much for this contest to 'go over!' That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET. The Cowboys opened the 2020 season with a new head coach for the first time in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Dallas welcomes the Browns to "Jerry's House" on Sunday just 1-2, with each of its first three games being decided in the final minute. A questionable offensive PI call prevented Dallas an opportunity to kick a game-tying FG at the end of its Week 1 game at the Rams (lost 20-17) and then Dallas overcame a 39-24 deficit at home to the Falcons in Week 2, scoring the game's final 16 points inside the last five minutes of the 4thb quarter (game-winning FG in a 40-39 victory came at 0:00). Dallas then overcame a 30-15 deficit at Seattle to take a 31-30 lead, only to see Seattle score with 1:47 to go. Down 38-31, Dallas drove to Seattle's 26-yard line, when Prescott was picked off to end the game. We ALL know the plight of the Cleveland Browns, who won just four games from 2015-17.However, Baker Mayfield threw two TD passes, Nick Chubb ran for two more scores and the Browns moved over .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 34-20 win Sunday over the Washington Football Team in Week 3. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has the Browns 2-1 for the first time since 2011. It's also the first time they've had a winning record since Week 14 in 2014, as Cleveland had gone 90 consecutive weeks without a winning record. As the ad once said, "Is it Real or is it Memorex?" Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Mayfield has thrown for a modest 564 yards in three games (5 TDs / 2 INTs / QB rating of 91.5), as Cleveland's running game has been terrific. Chubb has 292 yards (5.7 YPC) and four TDs, while Hunt has 204 yards (5.2 YPC), giving the NFL's third-best rushing total (170.3 YPG on 5.2 YPC). Speaking of RBs, Dallas' Zeke Elliott, a two-time rushing champion, has a modest 219 yards on YPC. Dallas QB Dak Prescott finished 37 of 57 for 472 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Seattle setting career highs for yards and attempts. However, Dallas lost. Prescott has topped 400 yards passing his last two games (is averaging 396.0 YPG on the season) but is that really helping? Better balance is a MUST plus the Dallas defense has been dreadful the last two weeks, allowing 39 and 38 points The Cowboys have failed to cover 10 of their last 12 as a non-division home favorite but backing the Browns on the road is NOT an option. Yes, they own a winning record (2-1) for the FIRST time in 91 weeks but is that really a 'buy' sign? Cleveland's two wins have come over 0-2-1 Cincinnati (2-14 in 2019) and 1-2 Washington (3-13 in 2019) and come in 5-36 SU on the road since the start of the 2015 season (also: Browns are 6-15 ATS their last 21 vs NFC foes). Cowboys "get this one right" and win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | Top | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The 1-2 New Orleans Saints visit the 1-2 Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Saints come in off back-to-back losses, having lost consecutive games for the first time in THREE years. As for the Lions, they are well familiar with consecutive losses but Detroit just ended an 11-game, 11-month losing streak with last Sunday's 26-23 upset of the Cardinals in the desert (game-winning 39-yard FG came on the game's final play). The Saints had hoped that WR Michael Thomas would return from a groin injury that has kept him out the last two games but he was ruled out late Friday. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. He's been missed, although Brees is completing 70.2% for 760 yards with six TDs and just one INT (106.2 QB rating). In fact, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. RB Alvin Kamara didn't agree to a contract extension until right before the opening of the 2020 season but he enters this game leading the Saints in rushing with 153 yards and three TDs plus also leads the team in receiving with 27 catches for 285 yards and three TDs (he owns NFL-high six TDs from scrimmage). The Lions finally ended an 11-game slide with last Sunday's win. The Lions were outgained 377-322 by the Cardinals, as the game's key stat was Detroit picking off Arizona QB Kyler Murray three times, while the Detroit offense did not turn the ball over even once. Matt Stafford had a solid game (270 yards passing with two TDs) but Detroit is still struggling to run the ball. Adrian Peterson is the team's featured back but Detroit ran for just 90 yards against the Cards, averaging 3.3 YPG. A.P. has 209 yards rushing (4.9 YPV) but does not have a rushing TD and the team comes in rushing for only 105.7 YPG. Detroit's defense is allowing 30.7 PPG on 409.3 YPG (both totals rank near the bottom of all NFL teams). Embattled Detroit head coach Matt Patricia could really use two straight victories, as Green Bay and Chicago are both 3-0 atop the NFC North. "It's a huge difference between being 2-2 and the alternative," Lions running back Adrian Peterson acknowledged. He's got that right. Getting back to New Orleans, the Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). The Saints sure don't want to fall to 1-3 and New Orleans does enter this contest having gone 12-4 (75%) ATS its last 16 as a road favorite. As for the Lions, they did eke out a win last week but as noted, that ended an 11-game losing streak in which they were 2-9 ATS. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals -1 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. It's NOT exactly Brady vs Brees like in Week 1, when the Bucs played the Saints but Sunday's Week contest between the Jags and Browns will feature Garner Minshew vs Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He opened his sophomore season completing 73.8 percent for 787 yards with six TDs and three INTs (101.3 QB rating). You may just have heard about Burro, last year's Heisman winner who led LSU to a 15-0 season and the national championship, then was the overall No. 1 pick by the Bengals. He has opened his rookie season completing 64.5 percent for 821 yards with five TDs and just one INT (more modest 89.0 QB rating). Both QBs have shaky offense lines, leading Minshew to be sacked 10 times and Burrow has suffered 14 sacks. Neither QB gets much help from their respective running games, as the Jags are averaging 109.3 YPG on the ground, while the Bengals are averaging a woeful 79.3 YPG. The Jags no longer have RB Fournette, who topped 1,000 yards rushing in TWO of his three seasons with the Jags, including 1,152 last year. Rookie James Robinson has become the team's featured back and has 210 yards on the ground with all three of the team's rushing TDs on a solid 4.9 YPC. He's also added 10 catches for 129 yards. So far, he's been a better-than-expected replacement. Good news for the Jags is that DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), is expected to play, after missing last week's game (7 catches / 15.6 YPC / 1 TD). Fellow WRs Cole has 15 catches and to TDs but averages only 9.9 YPC, while Shenault has 11 catches and one TD but averages only 9.5 YPC. The Jacksonville D is allowing a middle-of-the-pack 364.3 YPG but also 28.0 PPG. Cincy RB Mixon has 164 yards rushing (about 70% of the team's total, while averaging just 3.2 YPC. Bernard is listed as a RB but has just TWO carries on the season and he's basically a receiving option out of the backfield (12 catches) in 2020. WR Boyd leads with 21 catches and former star Green has 13 catches but a sad 8.9 YPC average. His first five seasons he averaged 983 catches per, topping 1,000 yards in each while hauling in 45 TDs. If Burrow can't get him back in form, Green may soon be an ineffective player. The Cincy D is allowing 392.3 YPG but a few less points than Jacksonville's D, at 24.7 PPG. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'implode,' going 2-10 the rest of the wat-y. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-2 start this season means the Jags are 9-22 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-12 on the road. The Bengals made FIVE straight postseason appearances under QB Andy Dalton from 2011-15 but lost each time in their first playoff game. FOUR straight losing seasons followed, including 2019's 2-14 disaster. That gave them the No. 1 pick, which the team used to take Burrow. How will the "Burrow era" play out? TBD. The Bengals have plenty of weaknesses but they've been in ALL three games, losing 16-13 at home to the Chargers in Week 1 (led 13-6 in the 4th quarter), 35-30 at Cleveland in Week 2 and almost beat the Eagles last Sunday in Philly, settling for a 23-23 tie in OT (Eagles tied the game on a 75-yard TD drive with 21 seconds to go). I REALLY like what I've seen from Burrow and I'm betting that Week 4 will 'be the charm,' as Joe gets his first NFL win as a starting QB. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | LSU v. Vanderbilt OVER 49.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Total of the Month is on LSU/Vandy Over at 7:30 ET. LSU took the field last Saturday at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, minus 17 starters from last year's national champions. LSU had NO answer for Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense, which he brought to Miss St and the SEC in 2020.The Bulldogs started K.J. Costello at QB, a graduate transfer from Stanford. He was a solid QB for the Cardinal but he looked like Patrick Mahomes, ripping the LSU pass D for 623 pass yards (an SEC record), throwing for five TDs. Miss St won 44-34, ending LSU's 16-game winning streak. LSU heads out on the road on the first Saturday of October to play the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy opened its season at Texas A&M and lost just 17-12 as a more than four-TD underdog. The Commodores allowed just 17 FDs and held the Aggies to 372 yards. However, the Vandy offense was inept last season (16.5 PPG on 299.3 YPG) would do very little (12 points on 255 yards). Ken Seals won the starting QB job and was 20 of 29 but threw for just 150 yards (one TD / 2 INTs), while Vandy's running game mustered just 105 yards (2.8 YPC). Getting back to LSU, no expects Myles Brennan to measure up to the departed Joe Burrow but he did throw for 345 yards and three TDs (but also two interceptions). The Tigers' running game (38 carries, 80 yards) was pedestrian, though that counts minus-45 yards on MSU's seven sacks. Gone are WRs Chase (84 catches / 20 TDs) and Jefferson (111 catches / 18 TDs) plus TE moss (47 catches / 4 TDs) but Marshall returns and he caught eight passes for 122 yards with two TDs. LSU has a massive talent edge in this matchup (duh!) plus will be hungry to rebound after last Saturday's loss. These teams played in Nashville last season as well, as LSU rolled to a 66-38 win. I think it is very possible that LSU covers this over/under all by itself but a few scores from Vandy (note: the 'Dores averaged 21.6 PPG at home in 2019) should make this an "easy over!" That's the play. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 4:00 ET. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs). Florida also gained 196 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). Ole Miss QB Matt Corral threw for 395 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) but scoring 35 points doesn't help much when one's team allows 51! The Rebels now head out on the road to play at Kentucky, which lost 29-13 last Saturday but played a very competitive game in losing at then-No. 8 Auburn. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards, so expect the Ole Miss offense to have a tougher time here on the road than it did last week at home. Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3–only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the Regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish. Trey Wilson started at QB for Kentucky last week and threw for 239 yards (one TD / one INT), with WR Ali catching nine balls for 98 yards, while RB Smoke ran for 62 yards on just seven attempts (8.9 YPC). However, three TOs did in the Wildcats. Kentucky should fare MUCH better against an Ole Miss defense which looked pretty helpless against Florida. Ole Miss enters having lost SEVEN straight on the road, with the Rebels last road win coming at Arkansas back in the 2018 season (note: the Razorbacks have currently lost 20 straight SEC games). The Ole Miss defense has allowed an average off 32.4 PPG in that seven-game road slide, while Kentucky plays its home opener having gone 12-3 SU at home the last two seasons. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | Memphis -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Memphis at 3:30 ET. COVID-19 has surely impacted the Memphis season as the Tigers opened their 2020 season back on Sep 5 with a 37-24 home win over Arkansas St (Tigers we favored by just under three TDs). The program has since had to pause activities and cancel games against Houston and UTSA, so the team's second game of the current season (its conference-opener at SMU) is being played almost a FULL month after its season-opener (unprecedented break between Games 1 and 2?). Unlike Memphis, Sonny Dykes' SMU Mustangs are 3-0, after a 50-7 rout of Stephen F. Austin last week. The Tigers lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida St, right after Memphis won the AAC championship game. That victory gave the Tigers a 12-1 record and earned the school its first-ever New Year's Six bowl berth (lost 53-39 to Penn St). Taking over for Norvell is Ryan Silverfield, whose only game as a head coach was last year's Cotton Bowl. He gets credit for keeping QB Brady White and WR Demonte Coxie at Memphis. White threw for 4,014 yards (454 vs Penn St in the Cotton Bowl), becoming only the second Memphis QB to do so. He had 33 TDs and only 11 INTs, with Coxie as his main target (76 catches / 1,276 yards / 9 TDs). What Memphis didn't count on was RB Kenneth Gainwell, who had 1,459 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) as a freshman plus added 51 catches for 610 yards with three more TDs, to opt-out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. White completed 27 of 37 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State and has passed for more than 7,500 yards to go along with 63 TD in his career at Memphis. Coxie had eight catches (one TD) vs Ark St but the star was TE Dykes, who caught 10 passes and two TDs, coming back off an injury that forced him to miss almost all of 2019. SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three year s at La Tech, before getting the head coaching jog at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs He's off to a good start this season, completing 64 of 94 passes for 852 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. WRs Roberson (17 catches / 3 TDs), Gray (8 catches / 19.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and Rice (13 catches / 18.5 yPC) plus TE Granson (eight catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 26.7 YPG (6.0 YPC), led by Bentley (2380 yards / 10.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and McDaniel (293 yards on 5.0 YPC). Why not SMU as a small home dog? After all, SMU has already played three games and Memphis head coach Silverfield admitted the team will have to rotate more players in and out in all three phases of the game. He added that "a majority" of his team is back and he is confident the players are in a good spot to play. "We feel like we are getting back where we need to be," he said. "Still not at full strength, nor will we be at kickoff. But we are getting to where we need to be to where we feel comfortable having normal practices." As for SMU's Dykes, he told MustangVision that it will be hard to get a read on Memphis given its layoff, but he pointed out that the Tigers have won a lot of games over the last three years and that they will be ready to play. "They may not have played for a while, but those guys have a lot of skins on the wall," Dykes said. "They have won a lot of football games." In fact, Memphis has "won a lot of football games" against SMU. Last year's 54-48 win was not as close as the final score, as SMU scored two TDs (plus converted both two-point tries) in the games' final eight minutes (Memphis led, 54-32). Let me add that the Tigers' win in 2019 was their SIXTH straight over SMU, including wins of 28-18, 51-7 and 48-10 in Dallas. Note that while RB Gainwell opted-out, RB Clark gained 105 yards (5.3 YPC) in the Tigers' game vs Ark St, leading the way for Memphis to rush for 222 yards on 4.7 YPC (team averaged 186.7 YPG with Gainwell). That Ark St team Memphis beat 37-24 went into Kansas St and beat the Wildcats 35-31 as a two-TD underdog the very next week. Ask Oklahoma if Kansas St is any good? Meanwhile, SMU's 3-0 start has come against a 1-3 Texas St team (3-9 in 2019), 1-1 North Texas (4-8 in 2019) and SF Austin, an FCS school. The "price is right" for a SEVENTH straight win for Memphis over SMU, which practically guarantees a cover. Good luck...Larry |
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10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field last Saturday with a home contest against Kansas. Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in a 47-14 home win over Kansas. Baylor takes to the road this Saturday to face on Big-12 rival West Va, which has opened 1-1 after losing 27-13 at then-No. 15 Oklahoma State last weekend. West Virginia fell behind 17-0 in the first half and managed just one TD (Winston Wright's 70-yard scoring pass from QB Jarret Doege). Baylor will need MUCH more from Brewer in this one, as he has thrown for more than 3,000 years the last two seasons with a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. The running game totaled 203 yards on 4.7 YPC, besting last season's average of 166.4 YPG. However, let's remember Baylor was hosting Big-12 doormat Kansas, which fell to 6-84 in conference play since 2010 (note: Jayhawks are also 2-52 SU on the road in that span against all opponents). Gaining just 352 yards against a Kansas defense that allowed 475.2 YPG last season (122nd), is NOT acceptable. Baylor's defense, which returned just two starters, wasn't tested by an inept Kansa team but that WON'T be the case against MOST (all?) of its other conference foes. West Va QB Jarrett Doege was sacked five times vs Okla St but still managed to throw for 285 yards (70-yard TD pass to Wright, helped). West Va had a non-existent rushing game last season (973.3 YPG ranked 128th of 130 teams) but Leddie Brown ran for 104 vs Okla St and has 227 yards in the team's first two games. West Va did allow two, 100-yard runners against the Cowboys but overall, held an Okla St team that averaged 453.9 YPG last season to a modest 342 yards. These schools have met as conference foes eight times and Baylor is 0-4 SU in Morgantown. Brewer passed for 277 yards and two TDs in 2019's 17-14 home win over West Va but back in 2018 at Morgantown, threw three INTs in a 58-14 loss. Note that while Baylor flourished with an 11-3 season in 2019, West Va was just 5-7. Yet, the Mountaineers held Baylor to season-lows in FDs (17) and total yards (287) in that three-point loss. Baylor expects to end its 0-4 run in Morgantown but as Mick Jagger once sang, "You Can't Always Get What You Want!" Home dog wins outright. Good luck...Larry |
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10-02-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the StL Cardinals at 7:08 ET. San Diego's powerful offense finally burst to life in the 6th-inning of Game 2, after slumbering through a 7-4 loss in Game 1 and a listless first five innings last night. The Cards led 6-2 heading into the bottom of the sixth but the Padres hit five HRs while plating NINE runs from the 6th to the 8th inning. The Padres are the first team in postseason history with five HRs from the sixth inning onward in a game and Thursday's victory marked the team's 23rd comeback win of 2020. The teams now come back and play a "winner-take-all" Game 3 on Friday night. The Cardinals had to play 53 games in 44 days, including 11 doubleheaders, just to reach the playoffs. Both staffs figure to be strapped after the clubs combined to use 17 pitchers last night but the Cards will be able to send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who last pitched on Sep 25th. He's well-rested and gives the Cards a HUGE edge, San Diego's Game 1 and 2 starters (Chris Paddack and Zach Davies) lasted only a combined 4.1 innings, forcing the Padres to use eight relievers on Wednesday and seven more on Tuesday, for a total of 13.2 innings. SIX San Diego relievers have worked in both games. Flaherty is NOT the same pitcher as he was in 2019 when he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. He went 11-8 in 33 starts last year with a 2.75 ERA, a league-leading 0.97 WHIP and a .192 BAA. He's 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in nine starts in 2020, posting a 1.22 WHIP and a .221 BAA. The Padres are calling this a "bullpen game" but as noted above, the bullpen just may be 'gassed!' The latest word is that Adrian Morejohn will "open" for San Diego and he's made 14 career appearances (six starts), posting a 6.26 ERA, 1.54v WHIP and .307 BAA. However, who knows who SD will start (doesn't matter). Flaherty is 1-0 in three career starts against the Padres with a 1.10 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a .200 BAA. Last night's victory was the Padres' first postseason win at Petco Park, which opened in 2004. The first four losses were to St Louis, which eliminated the Padres in the division series in 2005 and 2006 (the last time the Padres made the postseason), as well as in 1996 when the Padres played at Jack Murphy Stadium. Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-20 | White Sox v. A's -100 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Oak A's at 3:10 ET. The A's bounced back from a 4-1 Game 1 loss to take Game 2 by the score of 5-3. That sent the series to a deciding Game 3 on Thursday but which pitchers the White Sox and A's would send to the mound for that deciding game was unknown until about 12 noon ET. The White Sox have chosen 25-year-old rookie Dane Dunning (2-0, 3.97 ERA), who made seven starts in the regular season. The A's have chosen Mike Fiers (6-3, 4.58 ERA). With that pitching matchup set, I've released a Late-Breaker on Oakland. The A's have gone 6-1 in Dunning's seven starts but in his most recent two, he's allowed eight ERs on nine hits over seven innings. He's never faced the A's and this marks his first postseason start. The A's considered lefty Sean Manaea but chose NOT to tempt fate, as the White Sox ran their record to 15-0 when facing lefty starters this season when they beat Oakland starter Jesus Luzardo in the series opener. Instead, it will be Fiers. Here's the rub with him. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 54 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-15 (.722) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-4 (.852) in his 27 home starts! Oakland avoids Chicago's perfect record against lefties this year by choosing Fiers, plus how can one argue with the team's W/L record when he's started at home? One last thing, The White Sox have won just 21 of 47 games started by opposing right-handers this year. Good luck...Larry |
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10-01-20 | Reds +125 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cin Reds at 12:08 ET. |
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09-30-20 | Heat v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Year is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Miami Heat may be just the East's No. 5 but they are in The Finals against the LA Lakers, the West's No. 1 seed. Miami is the first team seeded fifth or lower to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded New York Knicks lost to San Antonio in 1999. The last team seeded fifth or lower to win an NBA title was Houston in 1995, when it beat Orlando as the West's No. 6 seed. The Lakers cleared enough cap space to lure LeBron James in 2018 free agency and then traded the cache of draft assets they collected in six straight trips to the lottery for Anthony Davis. Owning two of the five best players in the league has the Lakers on the verge of tying the Celtics for the most NBA titles all-time, at 17. While the Lakers own the two-best players in this series, look at the Heat's journey to The Finals. They swept the undermanned Indiana Pacers in the first round (4-0 ATS) and then KO'd two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the East-leading Milwaukee Bucks in the second round (4-1 SU & ATS) on the strength of a versatile defense and an arsenal of offensive weaponry, They then beat the equally well-balanced Celtics in the conference finals in six games (4-2 SU & ATS) by out-hustling and out-executing Boston. All FIVE starters average in double figures, led by PG Dragic (20.9-4.2-4.7), swingman Butler (30.7-5.7-4.5) and PF Adebayo (18.5-11.4-4.9). SF Crowder (12/3 & 5.7) and SG Robinson (11.5) round out the starting-five, while Kentucky rookie guard Tyler Herro (16.5) has become a playoff star coming off the bench. Switching to the Lakers, it's A.D. (28.8 & 9.3) and LBJ (26.7-10.3-8.9) plus a ever-changing cast of characters that play well one game and then disappear in the next. Kuzma is the team's first player off the bunch and is the only other Laker to average in double digits (10.5), more than two 'TDs' fewer than A.D. and LBJ. Caldwell-Pope (9.9) and Danny Green (8.1) have joined A.D. and LBJ as having started all 15 games of the playoffs LA. Caldwell-Pope, Green and Kuzma are joined by a rotating collection of Alex Caruso, Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, Markieff Morris and Rajon Rondo, not exactly the kind of supporting cast you would expect on a dominant playoff team. Both teams are 12-3 with Miami going 12-3 ATS, while the Lakers are 9-5-1 ATS. The Lakers can be a disjointed group but A.D. and LBJ are truly a 'Dynamic Duo!' Also, the Lakers are shooting an impressive 49.8% as a team and when they've been favored by six points or less in this season's playoffs, have gone 4-0-1 ATS. My NBA Game of the Year is on the LA Lakers! Good luck...Larry |
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09-30-20 | Blue Jays +131 v. Rays | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:07 ET. MLB's 60-game schedule was limited to regional play, so SEVEN of the eight wild card series featured teams that haven't met since 2019! The exception is the series between AL East rivals Toronto and Tampa Bay. Of the four AL games played on Tuesday, the top-seed Rays were the only higher seed to win (three of four road teams won). Former Cy Young winner Blake Snell took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, shortstop Willy Adames made splashy defensive plays and Manuel Margot delivering a two-run HR, the AL East champions opened the playoffs Tuesday with a 3-1 victory over the eight-seeded Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays are in a win or go home scenario on Tuesday, as Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA) will take the mound against Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but the Rays would go 9-3 in his 12 starts, justifying his FA signing. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). His ERA (4.08 to 1.78), his WHIP (1.13 to 0.89) and his BAA (.200 to .186) are all higher this season but the Rays have gone 9-2 in his 11 starts, including having won EIGHT in a row entering this contest. So why take Ryu? Ryu has pitched n]better on the road all season, with a 2.20 ERA and .195 BAA, compared to a 3.15 ERA and .269 BAA. He's also made eight postseason appearances while with the Dodgers, while Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros in 2019, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow didn't face the Blue Jays this season but he's 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against them (team is 2-4). This series is headed to a deciding Game 3. Good luck...Larry |
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09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves -120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Atl Braves at 12:08 ET. The Atlanta Braves entered this 60-game season off back-to-back NL East titles and added a third by going 35-25 to earn the NL's No. 2 seed. However, the Braves have dropped NINE straight postseason series since beating Houston during the 2001 NLDS, not including an additional one-game 2012 NL wild-card loss against St Louis. As for the Reds, they came into 2020 off SIX consecutive losing seasons (having lost 94-plus games four different years) to go and earn the NL's No. 7. Cincinnati won 11 of its last 14 games to make the postseason for the first time since 2013. Checking in on the two teams we find that the Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483). First baseman Freddie Freeman is an MVP candidate after batting .341 with 13 HRs and 53 RBI, while Marcell Ozuna wasn't far behind in batting .338 plus led the NL in HRs (18) and RBI (56). in Stark contrast, the Cincinnati offense ranked last in the majors with a .212 average this season. The Reds were seventh with 90 HRs, with Eugenio Suarez hitting 15 (led Cincy with 38 RBI) and Nick Castellanos hitting 14 home runs. However, over Cincy's last 27 games, he homered ONLY four times while batting .170. Pitching has carried the Reds this season and the Reds send their ace Trevor Bauer to the mound, although Atlanta counters with its ace, Max Fried. Bauer posted an NL-best 1.73 ERA along with a 0.79 WHIP (100-17 KW) and .159 BAA. However, he is just 5-4 in his 11 starts, while the Reds were just 6-5. As for Fried, he delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA. The Braves went 10-1 in his starts. I noted Atlanta's playoff woes at the top and the Braves CAN'T expect to win this series if they DON'T win Game 1. Fried sustained an ankle injury early in his most recent start on Sep 23 but he's "good to go" for Wednesday. More good news for Atlanta comes with the news that leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna Jr.(14 HRs in 46 games) is expected to be ready for Game 1 despite a wrist issue. It seems like many (most) think Bauer will win the NL';s Cy Young award but I'd vote Fried and will add that over the last two seasons, the Braves are 32-9 (-plus 18.1 units) in his regular season starts. Make that 33-9 after today's contest. Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-20 | White Sox v. A's +115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 3:00 ET. MLB's pandemic-shortened regular season was limited to regional play and as the postseason begins, SEVEN of the eight wild-card series involve teams that haven't played any meaningful games against each other since last year (the lone exception being Tampa Bay taking Toronto in an all-AL East matchup). The Oakland A's will host the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this best-of-three series and the two teams are not only meeting for the first time this season but also for the first time EVER in postseason play. The White Sox were coming off a 72-89 season in 2019 but at 35-25, earned the first AL wild-card spot (No. 7 seed). Chicago tied Cleveland for second in the AL Central (both teams finished just ONE game back of the first-place Twins) but the Indians won the tiebreaker thanks to an 8-2 head-to-head record. Chicago's playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2008. The A's enter the 2020 season off back-to-back wild card appearances in 2018 and 2019, jumping out to a 12-4 start and NEVER looking back in the AL West. Oakland finished 36-24 (AL's No. 2 seed) while cruising to its first AL West title since 2013, SEVEN games ahead of the second-place Astros. Game 1's starting pitchers are Chicago's Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). Giolito struggled in his rookie season (2018) with a 10-13 record (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). However, he went 14-9 in 2019, lowering his ERA by more than 2 1/2 runs (3.41) and his WHIP to 1.06. He was named Chicago's Opening Day starter but lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing seven ERs in a 10-5 loss to the Twins. However, he pitched well enough over his next nine starts (2.54 ERA) to have the White Sox go 7-2. Giolito went winless in his last three starts (Chicago was 1-2) due mostly to getting just seven runs of offensive support, allowing eight ERs in 17.2 innings (4.08 ERA). He's 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the A's. Luzardo made just six relief appearances in 2019, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP but he pitched a total of just 12 innings. He made 12 appearances in 2020 (nine starts), with the A's going 6-3 in those starts (his ERA was 3.83). Looking a little closer we find that Luzardo has pitched well at home this season, going 3-1 in six starts (team was 5-1) with a 2.40 ERA and a .215 BAA. He shut out three of his six home opponents, the Rangers (8/4), D'backs (8/19) and Giants (9/19), over 17.1 innings. Luzardo pitched three innings of one-hit, shutout relief in last year's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL wild-card game in his only previous postseason experience. As noted, the A's played in the postseason in each of the last two seasons, while the White Sox are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The White Sox were 32-16 and had the best record in the AL on Sep 15 but 'limp in' having lost NINE of their last 12. The A's were a combined 102-60 (.630) at home in 2018 and 2019 but improved their home winning percentage in 2020's shortened season, going 22-10 (.688). There is little margin for error in these best-of-three series and I want the home dog in this Game 1. Good luck...Larry |
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09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -156 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 2:00 ET. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central in 2019 at 101-61, the team's first 100-win season since 1965. The Twins repeated as NL Central champs in 2020's 60-game schedule, going 36-24 (one game ahead of the White Sox and Indians). Minnesota is the AL's No. 3 seed and gets to play this best-of-three series at home against the AL's No. 6 seed. It's hard to believe but that No. 6 seed is the 29-31 Houston Astros, one of TWO teams in MLB 2020 to make the expanded playoff-field with a losing record (Milwaukee Brewers are the other). With allude respect to Milwaukee, the Brewers didn't enter the current season coming off THREE straight division titles (AL West), while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. The Astros made the World Series in both 2017 (won) and 2019 (lost). Game 1 of the series will feature Zach Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) going up against Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA). Greinke won the AL's Cy Young award back in 2009 with KC (16-8, 2.16 ERA) and from 2011-19 he was one of MLB's top starters. However, he's NOT had a good season in 2020 and is 5-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 24 career appearances (20 starts / teams are just 5-15!) against the Twins, including 1-4 with a 5.14 ERA in seven starts at Target Field. He also has NEVER had much success in the postseason. He's made 16 postseason starts, going 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA, which is 0.84 higher than his career ERA of 3.37 in the regular season. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games) but was moved to the bullpen last season. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. The Twins placed him in the starting rotation right away and Maeda has made that decision look VERY good, as the Twins are 8-3 in his starts and he owns a 0.75 WHIP (MLB-best!) and .168 BAA to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA. Yes, the Twins have lost 16 straight postseasons and you may have heard that Houston manager Dusty Baker has become the first manager in baseball history to lead FIVE different teams to the postseason. Baker had previously taken the Giants (1997, 2000, 2002), Cubs (2003), Reds (2010, 2012, 2013), and Nationals (2016, 2017) the playoffs. Here' what has been left out regarding Baker's postseason record. His 2002 Giants led the Angels 3-2 in the World Series and were up 5-0 in Game 6 entering the bottom of the 7th. However, the Angels would rally for a 6-5 win and capture the World Series in Game 7. Baker moved to the Cubs in 2003 and in the NLCS vs Miami, led 3-1 before losing THREE in row. Game 6 was the infamous "Steve Bartman game," when the Marlins scored EIGHT runs in the top of the 8th inning to erase a 3-0 deficit. One cue, Baker's Cubs lost Game 7. Since that debacle, Baker's teams have lost all FOUR postseason series he's managed in, plus lost one "winner-take-all" wild card game. You really want to back a Baker-coached team? Getting down to brass tacks, after being MLB's best road team the previous three seasons from 2017-19 (157-86, .646), the Astros went a deplorable 9-23 (.281) on the road in 2020. They compiled a 5.66 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins were a MLB-best 24-7 (.774) at home, producing a 2.89 team ERA. Here's the clincher. Greinke's made five road starts in 2020 and the Astros have lost ALL five, while Maeda has made five home starts, with the Twins winning ALL five (1.91 ERA / .109 BAA). That's 100% against and for! Good luck...Larry |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. Is tonight's Kansas City/Baltimore game a preview of this season's AFC championship game? Maybe so, but note it was the one everyone expected to see last January. However, the Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 at home by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Both teams have opened 2-0 in 2020 and while the Chiefs come in as the defending champs, the Ravens will enter this game on a 14-game regular season winning streak, with an average winning margin of 18.8 PPG! It pits 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes against 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first NFL championship since 1970 last season and was the Super Bowl MVP, while Jackson (36-6 TD/INT ratio and 113.3 QB rating) guided the Ravens to a 14-2 regular-season record, set the league mark for yards rushing by a QB (1,206 yards / 6.9 YPA / 7 TDs) and directed the most prolific running attack in NFL history (206.0 YPG) . Are you ready for some football? The Chiefs were dominant in their season opener, a 34-20 home win over Houston. Mahomes passed for a modest 211 yards but threw three TD passes (zero INTs) for a QB rating of 123.3, while rookie RB Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards and a TD. However, the Chiefs were lucky to escape with a win at LA vs the Chargers in Week 2, needing PK Harrison Butker's two field goals of 58 yards last week in an overtime win. Mahomes had 302 yards passing (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but Edwards-Helaire had only 38 yards rushing on 10 carries. The KC defense has allowed 419.5 YPG but just 20 points in each win. It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG). The Ravens have been waiting since 2017 to have a Monday night game at home but now that they got one, they'll be forced to play without the backing of their fans (zero in attendance because of the pandemic). These teams met in Week 3 last season, as the Chiefs built a 23-6 halftime lead, before holding off a late Baltimore comeback (KC won, 33-28). The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, with TWO of those losses coming against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Saints are back in primetime for teh second straight week, as they welcome the 2-0 Packers to New Orleans for Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Packers own two impressive wins, 43 34 at Minnesota (game was not as close as the final score) and 42-12 at home over the Lions. The Saints opened with a 34-23 home win over TB 12 and the Bucs in Week 1 but then lost by almost that exact same score (34-24) at Las Vegas on MNF to the Raiders in Week 2. BOTH teams are coming off 13-3 seasons in 2019. Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. The Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. Rodgers has thrown for 604 yards in the two wins with six TDPs and zero INTs (119.4 QB rating). Jones looks to be even better this season, running for 234 yards on 6.9 YPC with three TDs, while catching eight passes with another TD. Adams is a possession receiver with 17 catches and two TDs, while Valedes-Scantling ( 7catches / 22.9 YPC) and Lazard ( 7 catches / 15.4 YPC) have helped Rodgers stretch the field. Brees had two TDs passes in Week 1 (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. Brees threw for 312 yards on MNF but a 17-7 first-half lead was wiped away as the Raiders outscored teh Saints 27-7 from the last second quarter through the end of the game. The good news was that Kamara ran for 95 yards and caught NINE passes. The bad news is that Thomas sat out the Saints' loss in Las Vegas with an ankle sprain and did not take the field when the Saints returned to practice on Thursday. Brees can always rely on TE Cook but he'll need the veteran Sanders plus two young WRs (Smith and Harris) to step up. Green Bay WR receiver Davante Adams left last Sunday's victory over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Rodgers will need him close to 100 percent in this one. Yes, Green Bay is 2-0 but its wins are over a pair of 0-2 teams in the Vikings and Lions, who are a combined 0-4 ATS to open the 2020 season. The Saints enter this contest on a 12-4 (75%) ATS run over their last 16 regular season games. The Saints own an excellent rush D (3.3 YPC) and slowing down Jones could be the key to a victory. I had the Saints in Week 1, went against them in Week 2 with the Raiders and I'm now back "on" them here vs The Pack. Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos OVER 42.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Featured Sunday Total of the Week is on TB/Den Over at 4:25 ET. Obviously, one of the NFL's biggest storylines entering the 2020 season (not counting COVID-19) was Tom Brady leaving New England (after some moderate success) and landing in Tampa Bay with the Bucs. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp were that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He also brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). However, Brady's been pretty mediocre, throwing for just 456 yards after two games with as many INTs (three) as TD passes (three). Going back to last season, Brady enters this contest having thrown interceptions in each of his last four starts, three of them being Pick-6s! As for Gronk, it would be a HUGE understatement to say he is off to a slow start in Tampa. He has just two catches for 11 yards and was held without a catch last week for just the FIFTH time in his 117-game career. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. The Broncos were outplayed by Tennessee in Week 1 but lost just 16-14 when Gostkowski missed three FGs and an extra-point. In Week 2 at Pittsburgh, Drew Lock went down with a shoulder) injury but Jeff Driskel (256 passing yards with two TDs and one INT) led an unlikely comeback despite taking six sacks and absorbing 17 hits. Denver trailed by 14 points at halftime and by 12 in the fourth quarter but was 15 yards away from a stunning upset before Edmunds came off the edge and sent Driskel to the turf one last time. Looking at this contest, I see a much higher scoring game than the total indicates. Brady OVERDUE for a "big game," as his Gronk. As for RB Leonard Fournette, who signed with the Bucs earlier this month, he ran for 103 yards in Week 2 (on 8.6 YPC) with two TDs. Fournette may also just remember running for 225 yards on 29 carries in the Jaguars' 26-24 win at Denver a year ago. Yes, Jeff Driskel gets his first start for Denver and is seeking just his SECOND career win, which would be only 248 fewer than Brady. Fans are absent (for the most part) in 2020 but the Broncos may have a big home-field edge with teams coming in even later and having no time to adjust to the elevation. Denver is on a 9-2-1 ATS a home dog, so don't be surprised if they are in this all the way. What's more, Driskel is going against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 28.1 PPG. last season plus its pass D allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. Tampa's D may be slightly better than last year's unit but not MUCH better. I expect BOTH Brady AND Driskel to play well. This one is Goin' OVER! Good luck...Larr |
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09-27-20 | Reds v. Twins -122 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Twins at 3:10 ET The Twins won the AL Central title last season with a 101-61 record (franchise's first 100-win season since 1965) and can secure their second consecutive divisional title with a home win on Sunday over the Reds. 36-23 Minnesota can also claim the NL Central's top spot with a loss by the Chicago White Sox (35-24) to the Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati, clinched its first postseason berth since 2013 with a 7-2 victory in Friday's series opener and are likely headed to Atlanta to play the Braves in the wild-card series starting Wednesday. Reds manager David Bell debated whether to bring Cy Young candidate Trevor Bauer (NL-best 1.73 ERA) back on three day's rest but instead will start Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.73 ERA). In the end, he felt it was more important to line up his postseason pitching rotation rather than to potentially move up in the National League seeding. The Twins will counter with veteran Rich Hill (2-2, 3.27 ERA). Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the majors through the end of August, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, a 55-15 KW ratio and a BAA of just .180. However, he got 'blown up' in his first two starts of September vs St Louis and the Chicago Cubs, allowing 11 runs, 11 hits, and six walks, while striking out five in just four innings. Only three days after his Sep 10 start, he was placed on the injured list with a mid-back strain. He returned to the mound Tuesday and looked just fine. He pitched five innings and allowed just one run but the Reds wasted his solid effort, never scoring again after taking a 2-0 first-inning lead in a 3-2 loss. Hill's been "around the block," as this is his 16th season. He owns a 67-44 career record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He had a pretty good stint with the Dodgers from 2016-19, going 30-16 with his ERAs ranging from 1.83-to-3.66 and his WHIPs from 0.79-to-1.13. He battled arm woes for most of 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He was outstanding in his Minnesota debut back on July 29, holding the visiting Cardinals to two hits and a walk over five innings in a 3-0 victory. He threw 68 pitches, 41 for strikes. However, he then went on the IL for three weeks, He returned on Aug 19 and the Twins lost his next FOUR starts (5.06 ERA). However, his two most recent starts have seen him post a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings with 12 Ks. Gray owns a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts vs the Twins (teams are 2-5), while Hill owns a 5-3 record and 3.34 ERA in 12 career appearances and 10 starts (teams are 6-40 vs the Reds. This game has a postseason atmosphere and Gray's ONLY postseason appearance was back in a 2017 wild card start for Colorado vs Arizona, when he was able to record just FOUR outs while allowing four runs on seven hits. In comparison, Hill has made 12 appearances (11 starts) for the Dodgers in the postseason the last four years, posting a 2.70 ERA over 50 innings with 62 KS. Oh yeah, Minnesota is a major league-best 24-6 at home this season and a Sunday win would give Minnesota the highest single-season home winning percentage (.806) in MLB history. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 14 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The LA Rams have opened 2-0 after an impressive 37-19 road win in Week 2 at Philadelphia. The Rams are back on the East Coast again on Sunday, when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are also off to a 2-0 start. The duo is part of a group of 11 NFL teams that have opened 2-0 but barring a tie, one team will walk away 3-0 and the other 2-1 after Sunday's contest. On the coaching sidelines, it will be a battle of wits between two Seans. Sean McVay got his first NFL head coaching gig with the Rams when he was hired in January of 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era, at the age of 30 years, 354 days. He immediately led the Rams to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2017 and then went 13-3 in 2018, taking the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's 9-7 finish kept LA out of the playoffs but a 3-0 start would sure be 'sweet,' considering the Rams play in the brutally tough NFC West (Arz and Sea are also 2-0 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 1-1). The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. Buffalo's Sean is Mr McDermott, who was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East? Buffalo's 2-0 start surely has fans taking notice. The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. However, as noted, the Rams are 2-0. QB Jared Goff was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft and he's surely NOT disappointed. He was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys in Week 1 (completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT), but threw for 270 yards with three TDs and zero INTs vs Philly (142.0 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley was the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade but was released and signed with the Falcons. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but second-year pro Darrell Henderson led vs Philly with 81 yards (6.8 YPC) with one TD. Despite the team's defensive losses, the Rams held the Cowboys to just three points in the second half on SIX possessions and then Philly to just 19 points, while forcing three TOs. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th, overall). He has not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. The 2020 season looks like a "breakout" one for the former Wyoming Cowboy. He threw for 312 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets and followed with a career-high 417 passing yards vs the Dolphins in Week 2, with a career-best four TDs and again, zero INTs (QB rating of 147.0). The addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, is a big deal. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He had eight catches for 153 yards a TD last week (had eight catches for just 86 yards in Week 1) and joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs in 2019) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs in 2019). Buffalo had the Jets down 27-10 before a TD with under a minute to go made it a 27-17 final. Last week, it was 31-20 Buffalo, before the Dolphins got the backdoor cover with another TD with under a minute to go. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games (including playoff games) but this is a tough spot for LA, back on the East Coast for a second straight week. I really like this Buffalo team and after B2B games against AFC foes, the Bills draw their first NFC opponent of the season. That's NOT bad news, as the Bills are on a current 11-5-1 ATS run vs NFC opponents. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. I noted last week in taking NC St over Wake Forest that the Wolfpack returned TEN starters on offense, so we should expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020, as NC ST had averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak. Talk about 'hitting the nail on the head!' NC St won 45-42, rolling up 463 yards. The Wolfpack travel to Blacksburg, Va Saturday night to face Va Tech, which will be playing its first game of the 2020 season. Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one. Looking at NC State's win over Wake, last year's starting QB Devin Leary did not play because he missed too much practice due to COVID-19. Bailey Hockman was the surprise starter and had a decent game, completing 16 of 23 for 191 yards with a TDP and an INT. However, NC St rolled up 45 points due to a rushing attack that ran for 270 yards on 5.5 YPC. RBs Person (99 yards on 7.1 YPC with two TDs) and Knight (97 yards on 8.8 YPC with one TD) led the way. The troubling issue lingering from the win was that NC St's defense allowed Wake forest to score 42 points while gaining 32 FDs (note: Wake scored 13 points, 10 of them late, on 15 FDs against Clemson). Va Tech has to be really anxious to finally play a game and after six- and eight-win season the last two, Fuente's 'star' has dimmed. Seeing a 15-game winning streak over rival Virginia in the team's regular season finale really hurt, as did a 37-30 loss to Kentucky in the Belk Bowl. However, Va Tech has NINE starters back on offense and 10 more on Defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster retired after last year's bowl loss but Justin Hamilton takes over and he was a Foster disciple. The team's back-seven is excellent and don't expect NC St to run at will like it did last week, as Va Tech allowed 139.3 YPG on the ground last season (46th in the nation). NC St had SEVEN home games in 2019 but in team's five away games, the Wolfpack D allowed 38.4 PPG, as NC State lost by an average margin of 18.4 points. No. 20 Va Tech wins this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Reds v. Twins -124 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The 30-28 Cincinnati Reds clinched their first playoff berth since 2013 with Friday night's 7-2 win at Target Field over the Twins. The team stuck around after the final out on the field to celebrate and with good reason. After all, when St Louis beat the Reds 16-2 back on Sep 1, Cincinnati was a mediocre 15-21. However, the Reds have rebounded to go 15-7 since then, including 10-2 in their last 12 games. The series continues tonight at Target Field but it's the Twins, not the Reds, who have MUCH more to play for over the weekend. The 35-23 Twins own a one-game lead over both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians (both are 34-24) heading into the final two games of the regular-season. Minnesota can clinch home field advantage for the wild-card round by winning one game or Cleveland losing one game but can also claim the AL Central title by finishing with two victories. The White Sox own the tiebreaker over the Twins but Minnesota owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cleveland or if there should be a three-way tie for first. Tonight's starting pitchers are Luis Castillo (4-5, 2.86) and Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, he didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA through his first seven starts (Reds were 1-6). However, Castillo has been a key figure in Cincinnati's September surge, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 33-9 KW ratio in four starts. Pineda made his MLB debut with Seattle back in 2011 but was traded to the Yankees in 2012. Injuries kept him sidelined until 2014 when he made 14 starts, going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. However, from 2015-17, he was just 26-26 with an ERA of 4.56. Tommy John surgery sidelined him in July of 2017. Pineda signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Minnesota Twins in December of 2017 but would not pitch at all in 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee.. He was 11-5 (4.01 ERA) for Minnesota in 2019 but his season was cut short when he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. He returned to the mound on Sep 1, 2020, making his first start since Sep 6 of last season. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts this season and comes in off an 8-1 victory over the Cubs in Wrigley Field last Saturday when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 21-4 KW ratio in his four September starts (Twins are 4-0!). Castillo is red-hot but the Reds could be a little drained off last night's playoff-clinching win, while the Twins have the AL's No. 3 seed clearly in their sights! Minnesota suffered just its SIXTH loss in 29 games at Target Field in 2020 (Twins are a MLB-best 23-6 at home) and I'm betting this is the perfect situation for them to grab a VERY important win! Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Phillies +101 v. Rays | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi Phillies at 7:07 ET. The Phillies lost 6-4 Friday night 6-4 at Tropicana Field to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have already clinched the AL East but can clinch the AL's overall No. 1 seed with a win here. Philadelphia can still make the playoffs but the Phillies need help. Here's what Philly knows for sure. Friday's loss combined with Miami's 4-3 win over the Yankees in New York in 10 innings meant the 28-30 Phillies can only finish tied with the 30-28 Marlins, who hold the tiebreaker edge and are guaranteed second place and a playoff spot for the first time since 2003. The Phillies can't finish any better than third in the NL East this season and there is just ONE wild card spot left in the NL. Either the 29-27 Cards or 28-30 Brewers will nail down the No. 2 spot in the NL Central, so the Phillies are 'fighting' the loser of that race plus the 29-29 Giants for that final wild card spot. Tonight's pitching matchup features Philly's Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.67 ERA) and Tampa Bay's John Curtiss (3-0, 1.85 ERA).Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and was acquired by Philadelphia to pitch in big games like this. Wheeler was 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA through his first eight starts (Phils were 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of those eight starts. However, he's 0-1 over his last two starts (team is 0-2) with a 3.46 ERA. He has never faced the Rays The Rays send Curtiss to mound to be used as an "Opener." this is his 17th appearance of 2020 but just his third 'start.' He was used for just 1.1 innings in each of his first two. His ERA (1.85), WHIP (0.86), KW ratio (25-3) and BAA (.202) are ALL impressive numbers but note that he's pitched a total of just 24.1 innings. The Phillies are hardly a favorite to grab that final NL wild card spot but "hope springs eternal" heading into this contest. Is Wheeler really the "big time" starter the Phillies think he is? I'm NOT sure about that but I do expect him to pitch VERY well here. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Brewers v. Cardinals +108 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Playoff Hopefuls Showdown in on the StL Cardinals at 7:07 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers and the St Louis Cardinals split a Friday doubleheader, with the Brewers winning the first game 3-0 and the Cardinals winning the nightcap 9-1. The 28-30 Brewers are on the brink of elimination in the NL wild-card race and have quite frankly been playing catch up all season, since they have never reached the high side of .500. They must now win their last two games to have any chance of participating in postseason baseball. Meanwhile, the 29-27 Cardinals are still in the hunt for the NL Central's second-place playoff slot. Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff (2-5, 3.43 ERA) and St Louis' Adam Wainwright (5-2, 3.05 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-7 in Woodruff's 12 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of those 12 starts. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in EIGHT of his nine starts. He's pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). Wainwright is 18-10 with a 2.45 ERA in 43 career appearances against the Brewers, including 36 starts (Cards are 24-12). These two squared off in the first half of a doubleheader back on Sep 16, a game the Cards won 4-2, as Wainwright pitched ALL seven innings, allowing two runs with a KW ratio of 9-1. Wainwright's had a very good career and here at 39-years-old, he's posted the lowest BBA of his career (2.12), 40 points lower than his career average of .252! Wainwright wants another postseason run and increases the Cards' chances by winning here. Bye-Bye Brewers! Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Duke v. Virginia -5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 119 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 4:00 ET David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Duke instead opened at then-No. 10 Notre Dame and lost 27-13 (not bad as 3-TD dog) but last week's 26-6 home loss to BC was not 'pretty.' The Blue Devils are back on the road this Saturday at ACC rival Virginia, which will be playing its first game of 2020. Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he's led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory. Duke's new starting QB, Chase Brice (a Clemson transfer), has so far flopped. He averaged 238.0 YPG passing but in 79 attempts, has yet to throw a TD pass (has two INTs). It sure doesn't help him that Duke's running game looks pretty sad, averaging 109.5 YPG on 3.7 YPC. The Notre Dame loss seemed like a positive, until Duke had five TOs against BC, including FOUR inside the BC red zone. Without a game under its belt, Virginia is somewhat of a mystery. Replacing QB Perkins (3,538 passing yards with 22 TDs and 769 rushing yards with 11 TDs) will not be easy. We'll see who gets the start. The running game should be fine, as Wayne Taulapapa may have had just 473 yards but he's a tough runner who scored 12 TDs. More importantly, the OL returns all five starters, who are also seniors. The defense loses three key players but NINE starters are back, plus 15 returning players made at least one start in 2019. Mendenhall is a quality coach and his team has put together back-to-back winning seasons while going 12-1 SU at home (7-0 last season). In his four-year rivalry with Cutcliffe, he's 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 17.3 PPG. Lay the small number. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 54.5 | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on Tulane/Southern Miss Over at 2:30 ET. Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marks the first time Tulane has posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. QB Justin McMillan could be erratic but he passed for 2,444 yards (17 TDs / 10 INTs) and was the team's leading rusher with 745 yards (4.4 YPC / 12 TDs). The bottom line is this, he led Tulane to 33.1 PPG on 449.3 YPG, as both totals rank third-best in school history for a single season. New QB Keon Howard is off to a poor start, completing just 43.6% for 299 yards without a TD and one INT in Tulane's 1-1 start. The Good news on offense has been redshirt freshman Tyler Spears running for 224 yards on 7.7 YPC. Tulane's first game saw them win 27-24 at South Alabama but then lose last Saturday at home to Navy. Tulane led that game 24-0 at the half, before Navy scored the game's final 27 points with the game-winning 33 -yard FG coming at 0:00! Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. The Golden Eagles had seemingly bounced back with strong effort last week at home vs La Tech, as they led 27-10 towards the end of the third quarter. However, La Tech drove 74 yards in 17 plays to score the winning TD with 14 seconds to go, stealing a 31-30 win. QB Jack Abraham has been very good, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 578 yards with three TDs and just one INT. However, the running game is non-existent, averaging 112.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. The Southern Miss defense has allowed 31.5 PPG on YPG 453.5 YPG. These two schools met in last season's Armed Forces Bowl, with Tulane winning 30-13. Sure, Southern Miss is playing with revenge but it' hard to trust this year's team at the moment. Then again, Tulane clearly needs to bounce-back from its disastrous second-half collapse against Navy. The Southern Miss defense is clearly vulnerable and Tulane QB Howard is a Southern Miss transfer, who HAS to be looking forward to playing against his former team. As noted above, Southern Miss QB Abraham has looked sharp and I'm expecting a high-scoring game. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 1:30 ET. Toledo made Matt Campbell its permanent head coach at the end of 2011, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS at 32-years-old. He coached four full seasons at Toledo (2012–201), going 35–15. The 2015 team peaked at No. 20 in the AP Poll. He left Toledo before its bowl game in 2015 and took the Iowa St job. His first team went 3-9 but the last three seasons (2017-19) he's taken the Cyclones to three straight bowl games. Iowa St was ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but lost its season-opener on Sep 12, 31-14 to ULL at home, as almost a two-TD favorite. It marked ULL's first-ever win over a top-25 opponent on the road (had been 0-26 against ranked foes away from home). The school's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones have not played since and now play at TCU on Saturday in their Big 12 opener. This contest is not just TCU's conference opener but it's the Horned Frogs' FIRST game of 2020. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that' didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning seasons and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). However, TCU enters 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so it's almost a sure thing that the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (OK, maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19). ISU's Brock Purdy has already set 21 school records in just two seasons at QB. He fought injuries all season but still led the Big 12 in passing (306.3 YPG), while throwing 27 TDs and just nine INTs. Just five starters return on offense but a key returnee is Breece Hall, who averaged 101.6 YPG on the ground with nine TDs in his eight starts as a freshman. ISU may have the best (deepest?) group of TEs in CFB, as the trio of Kolar, Allen and Chase accounted for 75 catches and 10 TDs. The defense returns NINE starters and don't be fooled by that loss to ULL. The Ragin' Cajuns scored on an 85 KO return and an 83-yard punt return plus added a 78-yard TD pass that accounted for 29% of its 276 total yards. We haven't seen TCU play yet but we know that the offense returns only THREE starters, losing four of five OL. QB Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season but finished with modest totals of 2,007 passing yards and 15 TDs. The defense was first in the Big 12 in yards allowed (336.9 YPG) and 4th in points allowed (26.4 PPG) but again, only FOUR full-time starters are back. With ISU's recent surge and TCU's recent demise, the Cyclones have won TWO of the last three meetings (2017-19), including a 49-24 romp in Ames last season, when they ran up 436 yards on a much better defense than TCU will field here in 2020. Purdy had an 'ugly' effort vs ULL (16 of 35 for 145 yards with no TDs and one INT) but I feel strongly he'll bounce back here. What's more, TCU's starting QB Max Duggan has been battling a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. He was cleared to play on Monday but who knows? His likely replacement would be sophomore Matthew Downing, who has not taken a snap since 2018 and has 10 career pass attempts. ISU is not often a road favorite but the last three seasons under Campbell, the Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in that role. HUGE play on Iowa St. Good luck...Larry |
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09-26-20 | Louisville +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12 noon ET. The only game played between ranked opponents prior to this Saturday (Sep 26) was last Saturday's 37-24 win by No. 17 Mia-Fl over No. 18 Louisville. There are three top-25 matchups on Sep 26, including No. 21 Pitt hosting No. 24 Louisville. The Panthers (2-0, 1-0 ACC) get their third straight home game to open the season, after wins over Austin Peay (55-0) and Syracuse (21-10). The Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) hope to 'right the ship' after a 47-34 loss at home to Miami. This marks Louisville's first road game of 2020. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinal were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. However, the Louisville D was not up to the challenge vs Miami, which rolled up 4763 yards. That said, the Louisville offense put up 30-plus points for the second straight game, with 516 yards (and 29 FDs) against a strong Miami defense. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 650 yards with six TDs and just two INTs, while the running game has averaged 176.5 YPG (Hawkins has 235 yards on 5.1 YPC). Outstanding WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards vs Western Ky and then added eight receptions for 114 yards with two TDs vs Miami. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi is in his sixth season and has led the school to a modest 38-29 record (includes TY's two wins. He's taken Pitt to a bowl in four of his first five seasons but Pitt has lost THREE of the four). Senior QB Kenny Pickett is in his third year as the starter but he's throw for only 492 yards with three TDs and one INT in the team's 2-0 start. he gets little help from his running game, which averages 137.0 YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Panthers defense has shined through two wins, allowing 154.0 YPG (third-best in the nation), including only 26 rushing yards per game, giving them the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation. That said, Pitt's first two opponents have been FCS Austin Peay and Syracuse, which has scored a total of just 16 points in opening 0-2.Louisville's offense has great balance (see above) and is averaging 32.5 PPG on 501.5 PPG to open its season. I'm a big fan of Satterfield and the Panthers are a poor 8-14-1 (40%) ATS as a home favorite under Narduzzi. In QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins and WR Atwell, Louisville owns the three-best offensive players in the game. Pitt last started a season 3-0 back in 2014 and I don't the Panthers open 3-0 this season. I'm calling for an OUTRIGHT Louisville win but YES, I'll take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-25-20 | Reds v. Twins -140 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Cincinnati Reds were just in 2019 but 75-87 (16 games out of first in the NL Central) but they enter Friday having won NINE of 11. At 28-28, Cincy is in a dogfight for both second place in the National League Central and/or a wild-card berth. Had the season ended after their 6-1 victory over visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday night, the Reds would have been the No. 8 seed heading to Los Angeles to open their best-of-three wild-card series with the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins have been a little streaky in 2020 but clinched a playoff berth for the second year in a row along with securing the team's third postseason appearance in the last four years with an 8-1 Saturday win at the Cubs. 35-22 Minnesota moved a half-game ahead of the Chicago White Sox for first place in the AL Central with its fourth straight win, 7-6, over visiting Detroit on Wednesday night. While the Twins had an off day yesterday, their advantage stretched to a full game after Chicago lost at Cleveland on Thursday. Taking the mound tonight will be Cincy's Tyler Mahle (2-2, 3.57 ERA), while Minnesota counters with Jose Berrios (5-3, 3.72 ERA). Mahle was AWFUL in 2019, going 2-10 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .266 BAA. He's been MUCH better in 2020's nine appearances (eight starts). His ERA is down to 3.57, his WHIP to 1.10 and his BAA is down 75 points to .191. Mahle is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last five starts (Reds are 4-1). Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been up-and-down. However, he is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four September starts (team is 3-1) with 22 strikeouts and six walks in 22 innings. The "clincher" is the fact that Minnesota owns a major league best 23-5 home record and Berrios' five home starts, he owns a 2.67 ERA and .168 BAA. What's more, the Twins are looking to secure a top-four seed so they can open their AL wild-card series Tuesday at Target Field. Twins win! Twins win! Good luck...Larry |
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09-24-20 | A's +190 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. The Dodgers have won the NL West for the EIGHTH consecutive season and also have clinched the NL's No. 1 seed. LA hosts the Oakland A's Thursday night in the "rubber" game of this series, before welcoming the Angels to Dodger Stadium over the weekend for a three-game, season-ending series. The 34-21 A's have clinched the AL West title (first time since 2013) but still have an outside shot at catching the TB Rays for the AL's top record (sit two games back with four left / Rays have just 3 remaining games). Clinching the AL's second-best record. Thursday's pitching matchup will feature Oakland's Mike Fiers (6-2, 4.67) and LA's Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.86 ERA). I've regularly played on Fiers this season and why not? It's true that his overall numbers are off in 2020 (1.39 WHIP and .278 BAA to go along with his 4.67 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 8-2 in his 10 starts in 2020.Surprised? You shouldn't be if you've been paying attention. Since Fiers joined Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 53 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-14 (.736) in those contests! Here's the rub with Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. However, he's had a difficult 2020, making only SEVEN starts in which he's been able to earn just ONE win. That said, he has yet to lose and the Dodgers are 6-1 in his starts, as he's posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and outstanding BAA of .187. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says he intends to use Clayton Kershaw and Buehler as his starters in next week's opening round of the playoffs but has not named a third starter. The key being, can Buehler prove he is up for the task? Otherwise, the Dodgers will have two playoff rotation vacancies. Buehler last pitched Sep 8 at Arizona, lasting just 2.2 innings and leaving with continued finger issues. Buehler comes off the injured list to make this start, testing the blister on his right index finger that has placed him on the disabled list twice in the last 4 1.2 weeks. It will be his first career outing against Oakland. Meanwhile, getting back to Fiers, he's made six appearances (five starts) against the Dodgers in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA. What a great price on Fiers. Take it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-24-20 | Astros v. Rangers +122 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Houston Astros' sign-stealing allegations were expected to be front and center in MLB 2020 but COVID-19, forcing an abbreviated 60-game schedule, pushed that narrative to the 'back-burner.' Houston came into the current season off THREE straight 100-win years from 2017-2019 in which it appeared in two World Series (won in 2017 and lost in seven games in 2019), Houston stumbled at the start of 2020 by beginning 7-10 but an eight-game winning streak got them to 15-10. However, the team has gone 13-18 since it was 15-10 and enters Thursday 28-28. The good news for Houston is that the second-place finisher in each division is guaranteed a playoff spot. Houston' currently owns a 2 1/2-game lead over the Angels for second in the AL West with just FOUR games The Astros squandered an opportunity to clinch a postseason berth on Wednesday and put themselves in a position to face a stressful four-game weekend series in Arlington. That said, the Texas Rangers are just 19-37 on the season and if the Astros can't seal down a playoff spot against them, Houston doesn't deserve a playoff appearance. Remember, the Astros can also clinch a spot with some 'help' (losses) by the Angels. The Angels don't play tonight but then cap their season with three games at Dodger Stadium (Dodgers own MLB's best record but have also clinched the NL's No 1 seed, so have little motivation). The Rangers have a brand-new beautiful stadium in Globe Life Field but have gone just 13-13 at home this season (no fans surely didn't help). However, Texas does own a MAJOR pitching advantage in this first game of the series, as Lance Lynn (6-2, 2.53 ERA) takes the mound against Houston rookie Cristian Javier (4-2, 3.33 ERA).Javier has made 11 appearances in 2020, including nine starts. His ERA is 3.55 and his WHIP is 1.01 in those nine starts (team is 6-3) with 42 Ks over 45.2 innings. Javier has shown promise but I don't believe he's up to the task of besting Lance Lynn, especially considering that Houston has scored more than three runs just FOUR times over its last 16 games (over five series)! Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400-plus innings over 258 appearances (234 starts) with a 104-70 record (3.53 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he struggled in his next two outings. He lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). However, Lynn has logged seven innings in each of his previous three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 21 strikeouts while limiting opposing batters to a .189 average during that stretch. Look closely at Lynn's 2020 numbers, compared to his lifetime ones. His 2.53 ERA is a FULL run lower (3.53), his WHIP is 0.96 (1.29 LT) and his BAA is .184, 59 points better than his LT mark (.243). Lynn went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 5-1 (1.88 ERA) at home here in 2020, holding opponents to .161 BAA. This small home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET. The Celtics dropped the first two games of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference finals against the Heat, each time blowing significant leads (14 points in Game 1 and 17 points in Game 2). However, they then won Game 3 of the series 177-106, while leading wire-to-wire. That contest was on Saturday, meaning that each team has had a three-day break heading into tonight's Game 4. Which team will be best-served by the layoff? Boston is looking to win consecutive playoff games for the first time since the start of its second-round series against the Toronto Raptors, while Miami attempts to respond to just its SECOND loss of the postseason. Knowing that Game 3 would be followed by three days off for scheduling purposes, the Celtics leaned heavily on their stars in Saturday's crucial win. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker combined for 72 points, each playing more than 40 minutes. What's more, Gordon Hayward took the court for his first game since an ankle injury sustained on Aug 17 sidelined him for more than a month, and played 31 minutes off the bench! The Celtics shot nearly 48.2 percent from the floor and outscored the Heat 60-36 in the paint, leading by as much as 20 points in the fourth quarter. Miami is an NBA-best 10-2 SU & ATS this postseason but as Jimmy Butler opined after the team's Game 3 loss, "I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently. Especially against a great team like Boston and what they bring to the table." Butler is averaging a modest 17.0 PPG through the first three games, as PF Bam Adebayo (22.0 & 10.7) and PG Goran Dragic (21.7 & 4.7 APG) have led the way. However, Miami's won with balance scoring this postseason, as all five starters are scoring in double digits plus rookie PG Herro has averaged 14.8 PPG off the bench. I believed Boston to be the better team at the start of this series, while acknowledging that terrific play of Miami up tom this point. It's "put up or shut up" time from Boston tonight (and for me, by the way)! Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-20 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Run Line Game of the Year is on the Min Twins at 7:40 ET. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central in 2019 at 101-61, the team's first 100-win season since 1965. The current Twins are 34-22, leaving the team just a half-game back of the surprising White Sox in the division. Catching the White Sox would be great but also the Twins can also earn home field advantage in the playoffs' first round by owning the best record of any second place team (Twins currently lead the NY Yankees by 1 1/2 games in that 'race'). Minnesota looks to sweep this brief two-game series against the Tigers, after winning 5-4 on a walk-off victory in 10 innings over the Tigers in Tuesday night's series opener. The Tigers have just five games to go in this COVID-shortened season and at 22-31, will end with a losing record for a FOURTH consecutive seasons. Taking the mound tonight will be Detroit rookie Casey Mize (0-2, 6.08 ERA) going up against Minnesota's Kenta Maeda (5-1, 2.52 ERA). The Tigers selected Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft back on June 25, 2018. He inked a deal with Detroit that featured a $7.5 million signing bonus. He began 2019 in Lakeland and was the Opening Day starter. After making four starts for Lakeland with an 0.35 ERA, the Tigers promoted Mize to the Erie SeaWolves of the Class AA & in his first start for Erie, he tossed a no-hitter. He began the current season in the minors but was promoted to the major league on August 19. He's made six starts in 2020 and has yet to win (tigers are 2-4 in his starts). He owns a 6.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the season, including two starts vs the Twins in which he has a pair of no-decisions with a 6.43 ERA (more in a bit). Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games) but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. The Twins placed him in the starting rotation right away and Maeda has made that decision look VERY good. He's 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and .167 BAA in 10 starts (Minnesota is 7-3). Just FOUR of his 10 starts have been at Target Field but he's been AWESOME, going 2-0 (team is 4-0) with 1.33 ERA and .092 BAA! The Twins are a MLB-best 22-5 at home and note that this pitching matchup is a 're-hook' from an Aug 30 game at Detroit. Casey lasted just three innings in that contest (allowed two runs) and while Maeda pitched decently (6 IP / 3 ERs / 8-0 KW ratio), the Minnesota bats remained silent (just five hits) in a 3-2 Detroit win. Maeda takes the mound for his final playoff tune-up in this one with the Twins still VERY much 'alive' to capture the AL Central title plus surely want to hold on to that 1 1/2-game lead on the Yankees in the battle for the AL's No. 4 seed. Twins in a R-O-U-T! Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-20 | Rays -125 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Interleague Game of the Year is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. The NY Yankees were the preseason favorites to represent the AL in the World Series, as well as a strong favorite to win the AL East. However, as the Yankees dealt with significant injuries all season, the 'steady as she goes' Tampa Bay Rays enter tonight's game at Citi Field with the Mets needing just ONE more win to celebrate a division title 10 years in the making. The Rays inched close to the AL East title and delivered another damaging blow to the Mets' postseason hopes Monday night as six Tampa Bay pitchers combined on a four-hitter in a 2-1 victory. That win, coupled with the Yankees' 11-5 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, have the Rays on the verge of winning their third division title in franchise history (have previously won the AL East in 2008 and 2010). Meanwhile, the Mets could win their final SIX and still not make the postseason field. Taking the mound for tonight's contest will be Tampa Bay's Blake Snell (4-1, 3.05 ERA) and New York's Seth Lugo (2-3, 4.34 ERA). Snell won the AL's Cy Young award in 2018, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .178 BAA, He was Tampa's Opening Day starter for the 2019 season and defeated Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros. 5–1. However, he was placed on the injured list on April 16 after breaking a toe on his right foot while moving furniture in his bathroom and missed two starts. He returned but on July 25 it was announced that Snell would undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Due to multiple trips to the disabled list, Snell finished with a 6–8 record last season (4.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / .241 BAA). Snell's been healthy this season, going 4-1 (3.05 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / .220 BAA) in 10 starts, with the Rays going 7-3 in those starts. Squaring off against Snell will be Seth Lugo, who made all 61 of his 2019 appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .192 BAA (he had six saves and 21 holds). He's made 165 career appearances but just 36 starts and this marks his sixth start of 2020. He's lasted a modest 17 innings in his first four starts and while his ERA was 2.65, the Mets are just 1-3. The Mets won his most recent start (9/17 at Philly) 10-6 but they didn't win because of Lugo. In fact, he allowed eight hits and SIX runs while getting just FIVE outs, before the Mets came back for the win. The 24-30 Mets are losing at the worst possible time. They enter Tuesday leading the majors in batting average (.273) and on-base percentage (.351) but they've scored THREE runs or fewer in six of their last nine games, losing all SIX of those games. Monday loss not only ensured the Mets of their third non-winning season in the last four years but it also dropped them three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the race for the National League's final wild-card spot and with three other teams, the Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, to hurdle in between. As noted above, the Mets' playoff hopes are on 'life-support! Meanwhile, expect the Rays to 'party like it's 2010 after this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-22-20 | Brewers v. Reds -147 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -147 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The Cincinnati Reds beat the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 last night, moving closer toward a postseason berth. It marked Cincy's EIGHTH win in nine games. Both teams are in the mix for a playoff spot, either as a wild card or by finishing second in the NL Central. Right now, 28-27 (.509) Cincinnati is one game ahead of Milwaukee for third place in the division and is also in a near-dead heat with St Louis (26-25, .510) for second-place in the division, which comes with a playoff guarantee Tonight's pitching matchup features Brett Anderson (3-3, 4.38 ERA) and Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.94 ERA). Anderson had an 'easy go of it' in his most recent start, as the Brewers routed the Cardinals 18-3 last Tuesday. He pitched six solid innings, allowing two ERs on five hits. The Brewers lost his first three stars this season but have gone 4-1 in his last five. That said, he's no more than a journeyman. He's made 196 career appearances (184 starts) with just THREE winning seasons (7-6 in 2010, 10-9 in 2015 and 13-9 in 2019), posting a 62-64 record (4.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP). Cincy's Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the majors through the end of August, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, a 55-15 KW ratio and a BAA of just .180. However, he got 'blown up' in his first two starts of September vs St Louis and the Chicago Cubs, allowing 11 runs, 11 hits, and six walks, while striking out five in just four innings. Only three days after his most recent start on Sep 10, he was placed on the injured list with a mid-back strain. However, he returns to the mound tonight and his back is apparently healthy enough. Gray has made eight career starts against the Brewers, posting a 2.56 ERA, as his teams have gone 6-2. Let me also point out Milwaukee's recent roads (as I did last night in winning 6-3 with the Reds), as Milwaukee enters this contest having won just TWICE in its last 10 road games. No reason to think the Brewers will win here! Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-20 | Astros v. Mariners +136 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 136 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Sea Mariners at 9:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners, who have been displaced the last five games because of poor air quality due to wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, will return to Seattle to play host to the Houston Astros on Monday night. The 23-30 Mariners went 1-4 as the "home" team in San Francisco and San Diego but now get a chance to finish their eight-game homestand at home. Seattle' season will be over at the end of the week but the Mariners have a chance to make the Astros 'sweat a little,' as Houston looks to close in a playoff spot by finishing in second-place in the AL West. Houston owns a FOUR-game lead over Seattle for second place and as each team has just seven games remaining, Houston's 'magic number' is two. Houston's lead over Seattle is actually FIVE games, as the Astros owns the tiebreaker (no time for one-game tiebreakers this season). The starting pitchers are Lance McCullers (3-2, 4.87 ERA) for Houston and Marco Gonzales (6-2, 3.49 ERA). Let me get these three stats out of the way first, before making a case for Gonzales and Seattle. No. 1 is, the Astros are 24-2 against the M's over the past two seasons. No. 2 is that McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against Seattle (Astros are 10-3) and No. 3 is that Gonzales is going 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA in seven career starts vs Houston (team is 0-7). In fact, Gonzales took the loss on Opening Day in Houston, as he allowed four runs (three earned) over 4.1 innings of an 8-2 Seattle loss. Right now you may be asking, "What the hell are we doing playing Seattle, Larry?" Fair enough but here's why. Since that July 24 start, Gonzales has gone 6-1 (3.26 ERA) over 52.1 innings with a KW ratio of 59-4! As for McMullers, he's pitched well at home in five starts (3-0 with a 1.45 ERA and .159 BAA) but look what's happened in his four road starts. He's lasted just 12.2 innings, allowing 19 ERs for a 13.50 ERA, while opponents have batted .393 against him (those are NOT typos!). Houston will clinch it's playoff berth this week but NOT tonight! Take the 'juicy' price on the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +7 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 134 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET. Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins. The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997. I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.' The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93 yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win. As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog. Good luck...Larry |
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09-21-20 | Brewers v. Reds -124 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The 27-27 Cincinnati Reds and 26-26 Milwaukee Brewers remain in contention for a postseason spot entering the final week of this uniquely condensed 2020 regular season. The Reds have won SEVEN of eight as they welcome Milwaukee to Cincinnati for this 3-games series with the Brewers having won a season-high four straight to reach .500 for the first time since Aug 19. Cincinnati is 4-3 against the Brewers, with all of those games coming at Milwaukee. The Brewers will go with Brandon Woodruff (2-4, 3.45 ERA),Monday's game, while the Reds counter with Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note was that the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. However, the Brewers are just 5-6 in Woodruff's 11 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 10 of those 11 starts. Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the Tigers. Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA in those games (Reds were 1-6). As Castillo takes the mound tonight, he's turned his season around this month. He's won all three of his September starts, allowing just three ERs in 22 innings (1.23 ERA) with 24 Ks. The Reds currently own the No. 8 playoff spot in the NL but also have the Cards well within the sights for second in the NL Central (one game back), a finish that would guarantee them a playoff berth. The Reds finish the season with three games in Minnesota. meaning this three-game set will be the team's final three home games of the season (playoffs or not). The good news tonight is that Castillo's in excellent current form (see) and that Milwaukee's recent four-game winning streak came at home, while the Brewers have won just TWICE in their last nine road games. Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 103 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET,. I featured a Brady (TB) vs Brees NO) marquee QB matchup in Week 1 (won with the Saints, BTW) and here in Week 2, it's a marquee head coaching matchup featuring Bill (NE) vs Pete (Sea) and it's showcased on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Carrol's first head coaching job was with the Jets (1994) and he went 6-10, before getting fired. However, he was hired by New England in 1997 and took the Pats to the playoffs that season and in 1998, before going 8-8 in 1999, when Bob Kraft fired him (guess who took over for him?). Carroll re-emerged at USC in 2000 and starting 2001, the Trojans never won less than 11 games in any season. A few noteworthy accomplishments were SEVEN consecutive AP Top-4 finishes, a 34-game winning streak, a national-record 33 consecutive weeks as the AP's No. 1-ranked team and two national titles. After a 9-4 finish in 2009 and amidst some controversy, he jumped to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. His first two seasons (2010 and 2011) saw Settle go 7-9 but the Seahawks actually won the NFC West in 2010. Beginning in 2012, the Seahawks have won 10-plus games in SEVEN of the last eight seasons, going to back-back Super Bowls at the end of the 2013 season (won) and the 2014 season (lost). Now to Belichick. He was Cleveland's head coach from 1991 through 1995 but NO ONE wins there anymore. Belichick was 36-44 overall, making ONE playoff appearance in . He then took over in New England after Carroll was fired and after a 5-11 season in 2001, has earned the right to claim being the NFL's best-ever head coach. Some guy named Brady stepped in and replaced an injured Bledsoe at QB in the 2001 season and led the Pats to their first Super Bowl title. They went just 9-7 in 2002 (missed the playoffs but from 2003 through 2019, have never won less than 10 games in a season, while adding FIVE more Super Bowl titles. That Brady guy may have had something to do with Belichick's success, but that's an argument for another day. Former league MVP Cam Newton is Belichick's starting QB in 2020 and he looked pretty darn good in Week 1, completing 15 of 19 for 155 yards (no TDs but ZERO interceptions!). He led the Pats in rushing yards with 75 and scored two TDs in the team's 21-1 win over Miami. New England's rushing game (minus Newton) is average at best (I think I'm being too kind) plus Newton's receiving corps isn't' much better. Edelman had five catches for 57 yards and Henry also had five catches but averaged just 7.5 YPC. However, New England's defense (despite significant players opting out), was as good as ever. The Pats led the NFL in points allowed in 2019 (14.1 PPG) and total yards (275.9 YPG) and bettered BOTH of those numbers vs the Dolphins, holding them to 11 points and 269 yards. Speaking of defense, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is a thing of the past, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards (THREE receivers topped 100 yards) in Week 1. However, Seattle's Russell Wilson was brilliant, completing 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). When asked about Wilson this past week, Belichick said, "Honestly, I think he's in a way underrated by the media or the fans, I don't know. But I don't really see anybody better than this player, This guy is a tremendous player." Seattle's running game is a 'mess,' with Hyde and Carson combining for 44 yards on 3.4 YPC in Week 1. However, when the final score was in, Seattle won 38-25. Sunday's matchup between the 69-year-old Carroll and 68-year-old Belichick will bring together the two oldest coaches currently in the NFL. Even more noteworthy is that it's a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls in recent years (XLIX), where NE snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds with an interception at the goal line (Why not run 'Beast Mode?'). CenturyLink Field is one of the loudest venues in the NFL but will be silent for Seattle's home opener, as no fans will be allowed in for at least the first three home games. That said, Seattle is on a MONEY-MAKING run of 13-4 ATS in home openers. As for the Pats, without Brady, any past New England trends are "non-applicable." Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-20 | Cardinals -158 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 4:05 ET. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they come into Sunday (next Sunday, Sep 27 is the end of the regular season) at 25-24, ONE game better than the Reds and Brewers. All three teams are trying to nail down second-[place in the NL Central (guaranteed playoff berth) or get one of the NL's two wild card spots Sunday concludes a five-game series at PNC Park with the Pirates and marks the Cards' 15th game over the last 11 days, a stretch that began back on Sep 10 with a doubleheader with the Tigers. St Louis lost the opening game of this series to Pittsburgh but have won the last three, including a sweep of Friday's doubleheader The Cards HAVE to be more than a little tired but they are fortunate that the Pirates are the opponent, as Pittsburgh owns MLB's worst record (15-37, .288), which translates to a 115-loss season for a 162-game season. St Louis was no-hit through six innings on Saturday but a five-run seventh was enough for them to escape with a 5-4 win (note: it's sure nice playing the Pirates). Taking the mound this afternoon will be Jack Flaherty (3-2, 5.52 ERA) for the Cards, while the Pirates counter with Joe Musgrove (0-5, 5.74 ERA). Flaherty is off a VERY good season (11-8, 2.75 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / .192 BAA) and a quick glance at his ERA in 2020's seven starts would give one pause. However, a closer look reveals that entering his last start (last Tuesday at Milwaukee), he owned a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .196 BAA, So what happened? He just got 'torched' by the Brewers in that one, allowing nine ERs in just three innings (Brewers won 18-3). However, the fact that Flaherty is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA in eight career starts vs the Pirates (team is 6-2), should provide some confidence in playing on St Louis in this one. What's more, Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove is not only winless in six 2020 starts (team is 1-5 / 5,74 ERA and 1.54 WHIP), he is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in eight career starts against the Cards (an 88% "go-against!"). Cards pick up the "much-needed" win here and then are off to KC for three games (Royals are just 21-31), before playing FIVE games in four days with Milwaukee to wrap up the current season. Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-20 | White Sox -107 v. Reds | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chi White Sox at 1:10 ET. The Chicago White Sox were just 72-89 last season, finishing 28 1/2 games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central. However, as the saying goes, what a difference a year makes. Chicago did have some high expectations entering 2020's shortened season but opened only 10-11. It was then that the White Sox 'turned on the juice' and as they meet the Reds in the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday, have gone 24-7 since Aug 16. The White Sox already know they're headed to the postseason (first time since 2008) but the 26-27 Cincinnati Reds still have work to do and time is running out. have been in playoff mode just trying to get there themselves. The White Sox ended the Reds' longest winning streak of the season, last night, snapping Cincy's six-game run with a 5-0 shut out. The Reds are 15-10 since Aug 27 and are just ONE game behind the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central (ALL 2nd-place teams get a playoff berth). The Reds are also very much alive for one of the NL's two wild card spots but they have PLENTY of competition. Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.20 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox in the series finale, while the Reds will give Michael Lorenzen (2-1, 4.56 ERA) his second straight start. Cease has not gone more than 6.1 innings in any of his 10 starts this season (Chicago is 6-4) but look at his improvement across the board from his 14 starts in 2019. He went just 4-7 (team was 6-8 ) with a 5.79 ERA, and 1.55 WHIP. His ERA is down to 3.20 this season (that's a 2 1/2-run improvement!) and his WHIP is down to 1.38. Cincy's Lorenzen made his first 15 appearances of 2020 out of the bullpen, before making his first start of 2020 (and first start since 2018) this past Tuesday at Pittsburgh. He gave up only a single run on four hits while striking out six without a walk over five innings of a 4-1 victory. First, let me note that over this 15 relief appearances of 2020, he had allowed 12 ERs over just 20.2 innings for a 5.23 ERA. Secondly, should ANYONE be impressed with a win over Pittsburgh? For the record, Pittsburgh owns MLB's worst record (15-37, .288), which translates to a 115-loss season for a 162-game season. The Reds may yet earn a playoff berth but they won't 'get any help' (meaning a win) here. Chicago SS Tim Anderson is staring down a second straight batting title (won last year at .335 and is hitting .366 in 202, two points back of the Yankees' LeMahieu) and 1B Jose Abreu has posted MVP-like numbers (.330, 18 HRs and 52 RBI). Good luck...Larry |
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09-20-20 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 42 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 115 h 26 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Ten Over at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Wednesday afternoon Wednesday |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The LA Rams eked out a 20-17 Week 1 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, when they opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium. On the other side of the country, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 17-0 in the nation's capital against the Washington Football Team, before Washington scored the game's final 27 points in a 10-point Philly loss. As the Rams visit Philly to take on the Eagles in this Week 2 contest, all eyes will be on the QB matchup between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Some quick history. Two QBs have been selected Nos. 1-2 in the NFL draft only SEVEN times since 1967. However, it NEVER worked out for both teams until Goff (Rams) and Wentz (Eagles) went 1-2 in the 2016 draft. Wentz finished third in MVP voting his sophomore season (2017) when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl title, although they would win without him after he tore two knee ligaments late in the season (threw for 3,296 yards with a 33-7 ratio in 13 games), Goff followed by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance the following season (201*0, where they lost 13-3 to New England (Goff threw for 4,688 yards with a 32-12 ratio). The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. Goff was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys, completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but McVay went into the game expecting to give more playing time to rookie Cam Akers, who started and ran for 39 yards. McVay is likely to give more work to Akers and second-year pro Darrell Henderson against the Eagles, The defense did a VERY good job vs Dallas, holding the Cowboys to just three points in the second half, on SIX possessions. Wentz (270 yards with two TDs and two INTs) had two TD passes as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead at Washington in the second quarter but a non-existent running game (17 for 57 yards / 3.4 YPC), an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed eight sacks and three TOs, "did in" Philadelphia. The bright spot was the Philly D, which allowed just 80 rushing yards (2.2 YPC) and 159 passing yards. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 20-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. However, the Eagles have won SIS straight against the Rams (6-0 ATS, as well), including their most recent meeting in 2018, when the Eagles won 30-23 at LA in Week 15 as a 13 1/2-point underdog. Philly RB Miles Sanders is expected to return for the Eagles after missing the opener with a hamstring injury. His addition is no small deal, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Eagles bounce back with a win and avoid an 0-2 start. Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest v. NC State -2 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 58 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* ACC Game of the Year is on NC State at 8:00 ET. Dave Clawson is in his seventh season at Wake Forest. He opened with back-to-back season of 3-9 but has led Wake to four straight bowls the last four years 30-22 overall0, winning three bowls in a row before last year's 27-21 loss to Michigan St. A fifth straight winning season (and bowl trip) may be asking "too much" for the Demon Deacons in 2020, as Clawson unexpectedly had to replace QB Jamie Newman (2,868 passing yards with 26 TDs and 574 rushing yards with 6 TDs), who is a graduate-transfer at Georgia. The multi-tool QB salvaged Wake's 2018 season and led Wake to a 7-1 start in 2019, before injuries set in. The Demon Deacons routed NC State 44-10 on Nov 2 and at 7-1, were ranked 19th in the AP poll. However, Wake stumbled to a 1-4 finish. Wake was originally expected to open at Old Dominion and follow with home games against Appalachian St and Villanova but COVID-19 had other ideas. Wake instead opened against No. 1 Clemson last Saturday and offered little resistance in a 37-13 loss. Clemson 'called off the dogs' with a 37-3 lead and 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points allowed Wake to earn (?) a 'backdoor cover!' Wake travels to Raleigh on Saturday night to take on NC State, which has yet to play a game. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's current 2020 schedule. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-20. NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters return on offense, so expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). Sam Hartman replaces Newman at QB for Wake but he was just 11 of 21 for 182 yards against Clemson and when he was in, Wake accounted for just THREE points. Wake's running game gained just 37 yards on 34 attempts and the passing game was severely hampered when WR Sage Surratt (66 catches for 9 TDs before getting hurt in the team's ninth game and winding up with shoulder surgery), "opted out" prior to the season. True, NC State St is "no Clemson" but the home team has dominated this series the last two-plus decades, going with a 19-4 SU and 18-5 ATS. Last year's game was a "no contest," as Wake won at home, 44-10. However, Newman had 307 yards passing and rushing, while accounting for five TDs (3 TDP and two rushing scores). As noted above, he's now at Georgia. NC St opened last season 4-0 at home but was never the same after that 44-10 loss at Wake. The Wolfpack lost their final three home games but all came vs bowl-bound opponents Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. Prior to NC St's home loss to Clemson on Nov 16 of 2019, the Wolfpack were on a 15-2 SU run at home, Note that the last time NC St hosted Wake was in 2018 and the Wolfpack were 19 1/2-point favorites. That makes Saturday's pointspread (I got NC St minus-2) look pretty tempting. "Big Play" here on the Wolfpack! Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on Louisville at 7:30 ET. Mark Richt's first season at Miami was 2016 .The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after a 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin in 2018. His DC Manny Diaz had already moved on to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Miami struggled for most of 2019, going just 6-6 in the regular season. The 'Canes then lost 14-0 to La Tech in the Independence Bowl, as the Bulldogs became the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. Pretty sure Miami hasn't included that factoid on its resume.Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. Both schools have opened 1-0, as Miami won its 14th straight home opener 31-14 over UAB and Louisville won at home over Western Ky, 35-21.The Hurricanes lost several players to either graduation, the NFL or opting out due to coronavirus concerns. That group included leading rusher Deejay Dallas, leading receiver K.J. Osborn, leading tackler Shaq Quarterman, top cornerback Trajan Bandy and the leader in sacks Greg Rousseau, with 15.5. However, in D'Eriq King (a Houston graduate transfer), the 'Canes have an electric dual-threat QB, King passed for 144 yards and one TD and added 83 rushing yards and another TD. That performance extended his active NCAA-record streak of 16 consecutive games with at least one TD pass and one TD run. Carson stepped in as the team's featured back and gained 134 yards (7.9 YPC) while scoring two TDs. Miami's known for its "D" and the team's "stop-unit" didn't disappoint, holding the Blazers to 14 points of 285 yards. Speaking of "playing defense," Louisville allowed three TDs in its win over Western Ky but one needs to look MUCH deeper than the final score to objectively judge the team's defensive effort. The Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western KY's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the Cardinals had a nice effort. They had four plays of more than 40 yards and junior QB Micale Cunningham completed 19 of 34 passes for 343 yards with three TDs and just one interception. WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards. However, with extra attention being paid to Atwell, fellow WRs Dez Fitzpatrick and Braden Smith each had 110 yards in receptions (four catches each, averaging 27.5 per!). RBs Hawkins and Hall combined for 137 yards on the ground, averaging 5.5 YPC. Miami rolled at home last year 52-27 over Louisville but the Cards' 2019 defense allowed 33.4 PPG (109) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). This season's D was terrific last week (see above) and while Miami's "O," led by King will be a tougher assignment, I 'love' the "revenge angle" in this matchup. After all, Miami is just 4-10 SU in road and neutral site games the last two seasons (including 0-2 in bowls, losing by a combined scores of 49-3). Miami will basically have to win here to cover and I'll take Satterfield over Diaz ANYTIME on the sidelines! Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Year is on the TB Lightning at 7:35 ET. The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, with Game 1 set for Saturday night in Edmonton. Dallas is in its first Finals since 2000, the year after the Stars won the franchise's lone Stanley Cup (1998-99 season). Tampa Bay returns to the Finals for the first time since 2015 and like Dallas, the Lightning own just one title in franchise history (2003-04 season). Tampa Bay being here is hardly a surprise, as the Lightning went 62-16-4 (128 points) in the 2018-19 season, tying the record for most wins in a single season in NHL history. However, the Lightning then got swept in four games by Columbus in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Tampa Bay had a very good regular season and this year's playoff run has been billed as the team's "Redemption Tour." The 'story' behind the Stars' run to the Stanley Cup Final is more of a 'Cinderella' one. Dallas had lost SIX straight prior to the March shutdown and then went 1-2 in the round robin seeding round, losing 5-3 to Vegas and 4-0 to Colorado, before winning a 2-1 shootout against St Louis. The Stars were then seconds away from falling behind 3-1 lead in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series with the Flames. However, the Stars scored at 19:48 of the third period and then won 5-4 in OT. Dallas won Games 5 and 6 to take the series. However, the Star then found themselves up 3-1 vs Colorado in the next round but got extended to a Game 7. Dallas trailed 4-3 in Game 7 but tied it with 3 1/2 minutes left, then won in OT. Then came the Western Conference finals against favored Vegas, where despite being outshot and outplayed by wide margins throughout the series, the Stars won it in just FIVE games (4-1). No. 1 goaltender Ben Bishop was injured early in the postseason and has started just three games (1-2, 5.43 GAA and .844 SP). To the rescue has been Anton Khudobin. He's played in 19 games (18 starts) this postseason, going 12-6 with a 2.62 GAA and .920 SP. Against Vegas, he 'carried' the team on his back. He stopped 153 of 161 shots for a .950 save percentage in the five games, including stopping 104 of 109 shots (.954 SP) as the Stars closed out the Golden Knights by winning THREE in a row after a 3-0 Game 2 loss. Speaking of goalies, Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy has started all 19 games for the Lightning since the Aug 1 restart, going 14-5 with a 1.82 GAA and .931 SP. His GAA in the regular season (that's an improvement of 0.74!) and his SP was .917, After the Islanders won Game 3 by the score of 5-3 (when they down 0-2 in the series), Vasilevskiy stopped 74 of 78 shots (.949 SP!) as the Lightning won game 4 (4-1), lost Game 5 (2-1 in 2OTs) and then closed out New York with a 2-1 OT win in Game 6. Tampa Bay defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets (revenge for that 4-0 sweep last postseason) and Boston Bruins in five games (Boston's 100 points were an NHL-best this season, before beating the New York Islanders in six games in the Eastern Conference final. Tampa's high-octane attack was too much for the defense-first Islanders. Clearly, Dallas' play in the postseason has Tampa Bay's full attention but if that was not enough, the Lightning can't possibly forget Dallas won both regular-season meetings against Tampa Bay (each one went into OT!). NO overtime needed here, as the Lightning take a 1-0 lead with a comfortable win. It's my GAME of the YEAR! Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss -5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Southern Miss at 7:30 ET. La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is entering his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marked the SIXTH consecutive season in which he'd led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH one. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. La Tech was supposed to open at Baylor last Saturday but that game was postponed due to COVID-19. That makes this Sep 19 game at Southern Miss the school's 2020 opener. Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1973. Coming anywhere near 10 wins this year will be near-impossible, as the Bulldogs are currently scheduled to play just 11 games, assuming there are no more COVID issues. QB J'Mar Smith will be sorely missed, as he threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement will be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. FIVE of the team's top-six pass catchers return but none had more than Smoke Harris' 47 catches and he averaged just 7.4 YPC. Senior RB Henderson is back and he ran for 1,062 yards (5.6 YPC) and 15 TDs last season. However, the defense returns just TWO starters (nine of top-12 tacklers are gone) from a unit that allowed 21.8 PPG (30th) on 377.7 YPG (53rd). The bright spot in Southern Miss' season-opening loss was QB Jack Abraham, who completed 69% of his passes and threw for 314 yards in 32 attempts without an INT (also didn't throw a TD). The running game remains a mess, as the team averaged just 117.5 YPG (121st) last season and was able to garner only 95 yards (2.6 YPC) against South Alabama. The defense can't be as bad as it showed vs South Alabama and I expect a big bounce-back effort by the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss has been to 18 bowls from 1997-through 2019 (a 23-year span) and while I wouldn't typically play a team right after its head coach resigned, I almost have to believe that the players will rally around the 30-year-old Walden. Abraham had a good game passing back on Sep 3 (see above) and should 'love' going up against a La Tech defense that returns just two starters, having lost all four starting DBs. Southern Miss has had two-weeks-plus to 'stew' over that loss to South Alabama and I expect at least a two-TD margin of victory over La Tech, playing its first game of 2020. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-19-20 | Blue Jays -130 v. Phillies | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Tor Blue Jays at 6:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies swept Friday's doubleheader against the Toronto Blue Jays, 7-0 and 8-. It was the team's first doubleheader sweep since Sep 9, 2012 against the Colorado Rockies (That's quite a long stretch). The twin bill win moved the Phillies above .500 at 26-25, leaving them just a half-game back of the Marlins for second [place in the NL East. ALL 2nd-place teams get into the postseason plus two wild card spots are also available. That current race is a mad scramble, with FIVE teams hovering at just above .500 or right at .500. The doubleheader loss was Toronto's FIFTH consecutive defeat (Blue Jays were swept by the New York Yankees from Tuesday-Thursday). Suddenly, the Blue Jays have seen their record dip to 26-25.Toronto opened the week a season-best SIX games over .500 (26-20) and back on the morning of Sep 8, sat 24-18, three games ahead of the 21-21 Yankees for second-place in the AL East. However, the Yankees beat Toronto 7-3 on Sep 9, the first of NINE straight wins. The Jays are 2-7 during that same span and are now FOUR games back of New York. Toronto has just NINE games left and its wild card hopes are good but the Jays NEED to get back on the winning track. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Hyun Jin Ryu (4-1, 3.00 ERA) while the Phillies counter with Vince Velasquez (0-1 with a 6.46 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but since Aug 1, the Jays are 7-1 in his eight starts (Toronto is 8-2 in his 10 starts, overall). He allowed five ERs in a Sep 7 start vs the Yankees but Toronto came back to win that game, 12-5. In his other SEVEN starts since Aug 1, he's allowed only FIVE earned runs in 40 innings for a 1.13 ERA and a 46-8 KW ratio. Yes, his FA signing was a "good one!" In stark contrast, Velasquez is still searching for his first win of 2020, in his EIGHTH start of the season. Just a thought, he could hardly expect to pick up too many "Ws" when he owns a 6.46 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .292 BAA over his first seven starts of 2020. Fact is, the Phillies have gone 0-7 in his 2020 starts. Bottom line is, Velasquez is no more than a journeyman. He's made 129 career appearances (104 starts) with a 4.74 ERA , 1.38 WHIP and .259 BAA. How bad has 2020 been. His ERA is 1.72 HIGHER than his career average, his WHIP is .31 higher and his BAA .33 points higher. What's NOT to like about Ryu over Velasquez in this one? Good luck...Larry |
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09-18-20 | Twins v. Cubs -125 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Chi Cubs at 8:15 ET. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but a 10-14 stretch left them a modest 20-16 at the end of August. Minnesota opened September 10-2 but lost THREE of four to open the week in Chicago against the White Sox (note: White Sox clinched a playoff berth with Thursday's win). The 31-21 Twins remain in excellent shape for a playoff berth as they travel about eight miles north to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). Chicago hardly looks like a team ready to 'IMPLODE' down the stretch in 2020. The Cubs hired David Ross on October 24, 2019,as their manager to replace Joe Maddon, signing him to a three-year contract. It's his first major league managing gig and Ross has done an excellent job. The Cubs come to the park Friday night looking for their FIFTH straight win. 30-20 Chicago enters this series with a 5 1/2-game lead atop the NL Central. Getting the start in Friday's opener will be Rich Hill (2-1, 3.81 ERA) for the Twins and Kyle Hendricks (5-4, 3.29 ERA) for the Cubs. Hill's been "around the block," as this is his 16th season. He owns a 63-43 career record with a 3.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He had a pretty good stint with the Dodgers from 2016-19, going 30-16 with his ERAs ranging from 1.83-to-3.66 and his WHIPs from 0.79-to-1.13. He battled arm woes for most of 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He was outstanding in his Minnesota debut back on July 29, holding the visiting Cardinals to two hits and a walk over five innings in a 3-0 victory. He threw 68 pitches, 41 for strikes. However, he then went on the IL for three weeks, He returned on Aug 19 and the Twins lost his next FOUR starts (5.06 ERA). His most recent start was a MAJOR improvement, as he allowed just two ERs in five innings of an 8-4 home win over Cleveland last Saturday. It seems hard to believe that Kyle Hendricks has already been with the Cubs for five-plus seasons. He's accomplished quite a bit in his time with Chicago, starting Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, a season in which he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13). He has never finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.19. Hendricks made his first-ever Opening Day start back on July 24 and threw a CG, three-hitter in a 3-0 victory over Milwaukee (9-0 KW ratio). That said, the 2020 season has NOT been smooth sailing (he was just 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA through August) for Hendricks. However, he enters this game in terrific form, going 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 17-2 KW ratio in three September starts (Cubs are 3-0)! I'm "all over" Hendricks and Cubs in this one, as Chicago comes in off back-to-back, walk-off wins against the Cleveland Indians, which followed consecutive victories against the Milwaukee Brewers by a combined score of 16-2. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry |
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09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 76 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Ohio play is on the Cin Bengals at 8:20 ET. The Browns opened the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Marvin Lewis took over at Cincinnati and had just ONE playoff appearance in his first six seasons. However, he then led the Bengals to SIX postseason appearances over a seven-year stretch (2009-15) but the Bengals always lost their first playoff game. Three straight losing years followed (2016-18) and he was finally fired. Zac Taylor got the job (his first head coaching gig) in 2019 and the Bengals were just 2-14. However, Cincy was pinning its 2020 hopes on Heisman-winner Jeff Burrow out of LSU, fresh off one of CFB's most prolific seasons. Joe Burrow's NFL debut (he was the only rookie QB to start the first week of the season) was a mixed bag. He ran 23 yards for a TD but was a modest 22 of 36 for 193 yards without a TD pass. He put the Bengals in range for a dramatic, late-game win but threw an interception on a shovel pass to thwart one late scoring chance and then watched as Randy Bullock missed a 31-yard field goal with two seconds left, clinching the Chargers' 16-13 win. The good news was that the Cincy "D," which allowed 26.3 PPG in 2019, held the Chargers to just 16 points. The Browns have won just ONE game on Opening Day since returning to the NFL in 1999 and last Sunday was no different. The Cleveland D had no answer for Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 25 for 275 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (152.1 QB rating). Jackson also added 45 yards rushing. As for Mayfield, he was a non-factor, going 21 of 39 for 189 yards with one TD and one INT. The offense converted just 3 of 12 third downs and was 0 for 3 on 4th downs These are two sad-sack franchises but while I think the Browns 'whiffed' with Mayfield, I believe the Bengals "have a keeper" in Burrow. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 7:00 ET. No team had played better this NBA postseason than the East's No. 5 seed, the Miami Heat. The Heat were dominant through the first two rounds, going 8-1 SU & ATS. Miami's lone loss was 118-115 (OT) vs Milwaukee in Game 4, when the Heat had the Bucks 'buried' in an 0-3 'hole.' The Heat's team defense has been OUTSTANDING, as Miami has held opponents in its eight wins to an average of just 101.9 PPG. The Celtics are the East's No. 3 seed (won 48 regular season games to Miami's 44) and swept the 76ers in the first round. However, after going up 2-0 vs the Raptors in the second round, they were extended to seven games by the defending champs. The Celtics won Game 7 but only by a 'hair,' when Marcus Smart made what was a game-deciding block with just under one minute left (Boston would win, 92-87). Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals was an excellent one, as the teams made the statement, who needs the No. 1 and 2 seeds for excitement. The Celtics led the Heat by 12 points entering the final quarter and were up 14 early in the 4th. However, the Heat made a dramatic comeback and in OT, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were the heroes. Butler completed the game-winning three-point play with 12 seconds remaining but it was Adebayo's block to deny Jayson Tatum the chance to tie with 3.7 seconds left that garnered the most attention postgame. PG Dragic continued his outstanding postseason play with 29 points and SF Crowder added 22. Butler had 20-5-5 and Adebayo 18-6-9. Let's NOT ignore the performance of rookie guard Tyler Herro (Kentucky), who fell an assist shy of his first career triple-double (12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists) in 40 minutes off the bench. Boston's Tatum led the Celtics with 30 & 14 plus Smart continued his strong playoffs with 26 points in the loss. However, another poor showing by All-Star point guard Kemba Walker really hurt Boston, Walker needed 19 shots (he made just six) to get to 19 points. It was his THIRD straight game failing to reach 20 points while shooting worse than 32 percent. He was 1 of 9 from three-point range. "I'm just playing terrible, to be honest," Walker said. "Not much I can say, but I have to be better. I have to do better for this team on both ends of the floor. I have to make better decisions. I just have to make shots overall." It's only Game 2 but doesn't it feel like a "Make or Break" one for Boston. Reading the Game 1 recap on ESPN.com, it was reported that the Celtics had been 156-1 since the shot-clock era started 65 years ago -- winners of 92 straight -- when leading by 12 or more points going into the fourth quarter of a playoff game. They're now 156-2. There's no real 'gap' between these two teams but n\my bet says Boston ties it up at one-all. Good luck...Larry |
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09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -118 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies played SEVEN games over a five-day span (Sep 10-14) with the Miami Marlins, losing FIVE of the seven games. That left 23-23 Philly and 1 1/2 games back of the 24-21 Marlins for second-place in the NL East as of Tuesday morning. However, despite playing without outfielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Phils beat the Mets 4-1 Tuesday night (note: starter Jake Arrieta suffered an apparent hamstring injury on Tuesday). Coupled with Miami's 2-0 home loss to Boston, the 24-23 Phils were now just a half-game back of the 24-22 Marlins. Philly's three-game series with the Mets continued Wednesday evening, with the 21-27 Mets hoping to avoid a FOURTH straight loss. Jacob deGrom's balky hamstring forced an untimely exit Wednesday night after just two innings (three runs allowed on four hits). The New York Mets fell behind 4-0 but erased that four-run deficit to rally for a 5-4 victory. That Philly loss coupled with Miami's 8-4 win over Boston, means the 25-22 Marlins are back to a 1 1/2 game lead over the 24-24 Phillies for second place in the NL East. New York is not officially eliminated from the playoff field but with just 11 games remaining, the Mets' season remains on 'life-support.' The 'rubber match' of the three-game series is set for Wednesday, with Seth Lugo (2-3, 2.63 ERA) taking the mound for the Mets and Aaron Nola (5-3, 2.40 ERA) getting the nod for Philly. Lugo made all 61 of his 2019 appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .192 BAA (he had six saves and 21 holds). He's made 164 appearances but just 35 starts but this marks his fifth start of 2020. He's lasted a modest 17 innings in those four starts and while his ERA is 2.65, the Mets are just 1-3. Nola is considered Philly's 'ace.' Throw in the fact that he's 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Mets (Phils are 9-4) and Nola over Matz is the logical play. Now, let's win it! He's made nine starts in 2020 and in September, posting a 1.33 ERA with a 29-4 KW ratio. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Mets this season but in his career is 8-2 (team is 10-5 in his 15 starts), posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Phillies have four games with Toronto coming up Fri-sun (doubleheader tomorrow) and the 26-22 Jays are a tough opponent fighting for a postseason spot. Last thing Philly needs is a loss here (heading into that series), after blowing a four-run lead last night. I'm backing Nola in a "big way!" Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-20 | Mets -130 v. Phillies | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies played SEVEN games over a five-day span (Sep 10-14) with the Miami Marlins, losing FIVE of the seven games. That left 23-23 Philly 1 1/2 games back of the 24-21 Marlins for second-place in the NL East as of Tuesday morning. However, despite playing without outfielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Phils beat the Mets 4-1 Tuesday night (note: starter Jake Arrieta suffered an apparent hamstring injury on Tuesday). Coupled with Miami's 2-0 home loss to Boston, the 24-23 Phils are now just a half-game back of the 24-22 Marlins. Philly's three-game series with the Mets continues Wednesday evening, with the 21-27 Mets hoping to avoid a FOURTH straight loss. New York is not officially eliminated from the playoff field but with just 12 games remaining, the Mets' season is currently on 'life-support.' The Mets will hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-1, 167 ERA), while the Phillies counter with ex-Met Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.47 ERA). DeGrom is trying to become just the third pitcher, after Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, to win three straight Cy Young Awards. This marks his 10th start of 2020 and his current 1.67 ERA is lower than in each of his last two Cy Young-winning seasons and that goes the same for his 0.87 WHIP and .173 BBA, as well. The difference in 2020 has been deGrom has gotten run-support in his starts this season, with the Mets going 7-2 in his starts (they were under .500 in each of his last two seasons). Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and is living up to the high expectations expected of him. He's 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA in eight starts (Phils are 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of his eight starts this season, allowing a modest three ERs in each of the other two. Wheeler takes the mound after missing several extra days with a torn fingernail on the middle finger of his pitching hand. Wheeler suffered the bizarre injury putting his pants on. "You can't make this stuff up," Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. Hard to argue with that. Wheeler's faced his ex-teammates twice so far in 2020 and the Phillies have won both games (he's 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA). However, the third time will NOT be the charm, as deGrom has dominated the Phillies In his career, going 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 starts (Mets are 13-3), Blowout Alert. Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-20 | Cardinals +143 v. Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 143 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 5:10 ET (Game 1). Milwaukee welcomed the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the teams began a five-games series over three days. For the Cards, Monday kicked off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three scheduled doubleheaders). By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. The Cards lost Game 1 of Monday's doubleheader (2-1 in eight innings) but won 3-2 in nine innings in the nightcap. However, after two low-scoring one-run contests, it was all Milwaukee in Tuesday's single game, as the Brewers won 18-3. As the teams get set for a second doubleheader in three days, the 21-22 Cards are barely holding on to second-place in the NL Central, a half-game up on the Reds and one game up on the Brewers. The division's second-place team gets a playoff berth but the other two teams are right in the mix for the NL's two wild card spots. The Game 1 starters are Adam Wainwright (4-1, 2.91 ERA) for St Louis and Brandon Woodruff (2-3, 3.40 ERA) for Milwaukee. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in SIX of his seven starts (Cards are 5-2). He's pitched at least six innings in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-5 in Woodruff's 10 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in NINE of those 10 starts. Woodruff has only c-faced the Cards twice in his career (he is 2-0 with a 3,37 ERA) but Wainwright has made 37 career starts vs Milwaukee, going 17-10 with 2,51 ERA (teams is 23-12 in his starts). He's been very good at Milwaukee, going 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 20 career games (16 starts) and since 2014, he is 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA in six starts at Miller Park. Want more "good stuff" on Wainwright. The 39-year old's 2020 ERA is 2.91 (career in 3.38), his 2020 WHIP is 1.01 (career is 1.23) and his 2020 BAA is .212 (career is .252). HUGE game here for the Cards, as the pitching staff will really be stretched out the next seven days. Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-20 | A's +112 v. Rockies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 112 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Oak A's at 3:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Wednesday morning. |
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09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The entire NBA 'world' is anticipating a Western Conference showdown between the Lakers and Clippers. Both LA teams took 3-1 leads in their respective semifinal series and the 'Battle 4 LA' seemed all but set in the Orlando 'bubble.' However, the Nuggets have so far, put that 'party' on hold. The Lakers finished off the Rockets handily in Game 5 of their series (119-96) but the Clippers have now blown back-to-back double digit leads in Games 5 and 6 of their series with Denver The Nuggets trailed by 16 points at the half in Game 5 but went on the win 111-105 and "did it again" in Game 6.The Clippers led Denver by 19 points with 22 minutes to go, only to see Denver pull away for a 111-98 victory. Denver won the third quarter 30-16 and the 4th, 34-19. LA head coach Doc Rivers was blunt after the team's Game 6 loss, saying there was 'no secret' to his team's collapses. "There's no secret like potion that something happened," Rivers said on Monday about the Clippers' two blown leads in a row. "The two things that we didn't do, clearly defensively, they shot almost 60% in the second half. The one thing that did stand out, they went to the free throw line like on every play." Denver center Jokic (26.1-9.9-5.5) and PG Murray (26.1-5.1-6.5) have led the Nuggets during the playoffs, as only PF Porter (11.8 & 6.9) joins them in double digits this postseason. In Sunday's contest, Jokic had 34 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists, while Murray had 21 points, Gary Harris added 16 and Michael Porter Jr. chipped in with 13. The Nuggets outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half. "It was just amazing," Denver head coach Michael Malone told the media after the game. "We had 11 straight stops at one point. Coming into this round they were the No. 1 offense in the playoffs, so I'm running out of adjectives, superlatives, whatever you want to call it to speak on our team because that is a tough, resilient group of you know what. I love our team." Paul George has had an uneven postseason for the Clippers but had 33 points, six rebounds and five steals in Game 6 for the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard contributed 25 points, eight boards and five assists but those numbers were below his playoff averages of 29.4-9.6-5.5. "Just gave up the lead again, pretty much," said Kawhi, who made 8 of 18 shots and 3 of 5 three-pointers. "They came down and either scored or got fouled in the third quarter, and we couldn't buy a basket. That's how they came back." So here we are in the FOURTH Game 7 of the 2020 playoffs and naturally, the Nuggets are again part of the story. Denver played two seven-game series in the 2019 playoffs (1-1) and came back from a 3-1 deficit in their first round series to oust the Jazz. The Nuggets will be trying to become the first NBA team to rally from a 3-1 deficit in back-to-back series. As Nuggets center Nikola Jokic said, "To us, Game 7 is just another game. Truthfully, the 'weight' of a Game 7 contest will weigh more heavily on the Los Angeles Clippers. They are attempting to advance to their first-ever Western Conference final and they are 0-7 in franchise history in previous attempts to get there. The "difference" this time around? The Clippers never had a player like Kawhi Leonard before. He was the Finals MVP for the Spurs in 2014 and then repeated that performance last year in leading Toronto to that franchise's first-ever NBA title. Can he lead the Clipps to the 2020 title? That's NOT the question here. However, my bet says he helps the Ciphers erase the above-mentioned 0-7 record by leading them to a double-digit win in Game 7. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-20 | Dodgers v. Padres +117 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SD Padres at 9:10 ET. The LA Dodgers entered 2020's 60-game MLB season having won the NL West the previous SEVEN years. They were overwhelming favorites to do so again and were expected to be the NL's representative in the World Series. LA has not disappointed, as despite losing FIVE of their last eight, the Dodgers still own MLB's best record (33-15), as well as MLB's best run-differential (plus-98). That said, the Dodgers now find themselves in a 'dogfight' with NL West rival San Diego, which has won EIGHT straight, as well as 21 of its last 26. The teams opened a three-game series at Petco Park last night, with the Padres winning 7-2. They handed three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (three ERs allowed in 6.1 IP) only his SEVENTH loss in 28 career decisions against San Diego plus also got four runs on five hits in a span of just 11 batters against the Dodgers' top-ranked, NL bullpen. San Diego's Dinelson Lamet outdueled Kershaw on Monday (allowed one run in seven innings with 11 Ks) and r-the Padres hand the ball to their best starter for tonight's game, Zach Davies (7-2, 2.48 ERA). The Dodgers counter Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.57 ERA). Gonsolin has thrust into a key role in the Dodgers' injury-riddled rotation. He has yet to earn a win but in six appearances (five starts / Dodgers are 3-2), has given up six runs (five earned) on 18 hits and six walks with 28 strikeouts over 28.2 innings for a 0.84 WHIP and .178 BAA to go along with his sub-.2.00 ERA. As for Davies, his best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy. Davies has a decision in all NINE of his starts (7-2), never allowing more than three ERs in any outing. Along with his excellent ERA (2.48), he owns a superb 0.96 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .191 BAA. Gonsolin and Davies squared off against each other back on Aug 12 at Dodger Stadium in a game won by the Dodgers 6-0. It was one of the TWO losses suffered by Davies, who gave up just two runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts in seven innings. Gonsolin allowed three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts over 4.2 innings but took a no-decision. Since that loss to LA, Davies has ripped off FIVE straight wins, allowing just eight ERs over 31.2 innings for a 2.27 ERA. I woke up this morning to this tweet from ESPN' Alden Gonzalez, " The Padres have won 8 in a row and are 1 1/2 games behind one of the greatest Dodgers teams in history for first place in the National League West. Amazing." Well put Alden. I'll 'ride' Davies in this one as a small home underdog. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-20 | Cardinals -141 v. Brewers | Top | 3-18 | Loss | -141 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (NL) is on the StL Cards at 7:40 ET. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they open the new week (two weeks to the end of the regular season) 20-20 and in second place in the NL Central, FOUR games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs and two games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won the NL Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) and then won 89 games last year to earn a wild card spot, where they blew a 3-0 lead in losing to the Nats. Milwaukee welcomed the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the teams began a five-games series over three days (Weds doubleheader on tap, as well). For the Cards, Monday kicked off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three doubleheaders are scheduled). By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. I played the Cards in Game 1 yesterday and got an excellent effort from Kim (seven scoreless innings) but after the Cards took a 1-0 in the 8th, the Brewers won it with two runs in the bottom of the innings. Game 2 went 'extra-innings' as well (remember, doubleheaders are 7-innings TY), with the Cards prevailing 3-2 in nine innings. The top two teams in each division earn a spot in the postseason and despite winning just four games in their last 10 and trailing the first-place Chicago Cubs by four games, the 21-21 Cardinals still find themselves in decent position to make the postseason. Milwaukee's loss in the second game dropped them to , the team's SIXTH loss in its last nine contests. Since a 19-0 win at Detroit on Sep 9, the Brewers have scored a total of just SEVEN runs in five games! Jack Flaherty (3-1, 3.08 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and the Brewers will counter with Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.64 ERA). Flaherty is off a VERY good season (11-8, 2.75 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / .192 BAA) and in six starts (Cards 4-2) in 2020, owns a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .196 BAA (second verse, same as the first). Anderson was scratched from a scheduled start this past Saturday against the Cubs due to a right hip issue but is said to be fine. The problem for Milwaukee is, he's really just a journeyman. He's made 195 appearances (183 starts) in his 12 years (for six teams), going 61-64 with a 4.07 ERA. Flaherty's getting his arm strength back from the team's 17-day COVID-forced 'hiatus' and he's my bet here. Good luck...Larry |
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09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Game 1 Series Opener is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. No team has played better this NBA postseason than the East's No. 5 seed, the Miami Heat. The Heat have been dominant through the first two rounds, going 8-1 SU & ATS. Miami's lone loss was 118-115 (OT) vs Milwaukee in Game 4, when the Heat had the Bucks 'buried' in an 0-3 'hole.' The Heat's team defense has been OUTSTANDING, as Miami has held opponents in its eight wins to an average if just 10.19 PPG. The Celtics are the East's No. 3 seed (won 48 regular season games to Miami's 44) and swept the 76ers in the first round. However, after going up 2-0 vs the Raptors in the second round, they were extended to seven games by the defending champs. The Celtics won Game 7 but only by a 'hair,' when Marcus Smart made what was a game-deciding block with just under one minute left (Boston would win, 92-87). All five Miami starters are averaging in double digits, led by swingman Butler (21.8-5.6-4.2), PG Dragic (21.1-4.4-4.8) and PF Adebayo (16.2-11.7-4.8), who is shooting a team-best 54.1% among the Miami's six double-digit scorers. Kentucky rookie Herro chips in 14.7 PPG off the bench. Boston hasn't "missed a beat" after Gordon Hayward went out with an injury in the team's first playoff game. Marcus Smart has started in his place and is averaging 13.1-5.5-4.2 this postseason. The team's "Big 3" of Tatum (25.3 & 10.1), Brown (21.0 & 7.6) and Walker (19.6 & 5.3) has been excellent (Note: Walker's had his ups and down). The Celtics 'rode' their stars hard down the stretch of their semifinal series with Toronto, with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart each playing north of 40 minutes in the final two contests. However, the Celtics haven't played since Friday, so fatigue should NOT be ANY factor. As for Miami, the Heat have been idle since Sep 8. Could the layoff 'cool' them off (couldn't resist that one!)? I'm on Boston in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 104 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the Den Broncos at 10:20 ET. The Tennessee Titans opened the 2019 season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,540, then took control of the Titans' offense. The Titans would go 7-3 the rest of the way, averaging 30.4 PPG. They qualified as a wild card and then beat the Pats 23-10 on the road, followed by a shocking upset over the AFC's No. 1 seed, a 28-12 win in Baltimore. Henry ran for 182 and 195 yards (5.9 YPC) in those two wins, while Tannehill basically 'watched' (15 of 29 for just 160 yards in the two wins). Tennessee's 'Cinderella' run ended in the AFC championship game, when the Chiefs won, 35-24 (Tenn led 17-7 but KC then scored the game's next 28 points!). The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. Tennessee visits Denver for the second-half of the NFL's Monday Night doubleheader, as the Broncos host the Titans in an empty Empower Field at Mile High. I'm not even REMOTELY sold on Tannehill at QB and while Henry's a DOMINATING force in the backfield, he has struggled in two games against Denver in his career. He ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec 11, 2016 (no big deal there) but he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That EASILY was Henry's worst game last season. Tennessee added two "big names" on defense, Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. However, Clowney didn't sign his contract until Sep 7 and Beasley didn't pass his physical until Sep 5, after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Beasley is out and playing in the altitude of Denver could limit the number of reps Clowney gets. Fangio's defense was not great last year but Denver still held opponents to 19.8 PPG, one of 10 teams under 20.0 PPG . Star linebacker Von Miller suffered a serious ankle injury and is out but five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey was traded by Tennessee to Denver in the off season in a salary dump (cleared $11 million in cap space). "It's going to be a little bit more juice," Casey said as his Denver debut approached. Signing Joe Flacco was a big mistake and I wouldn't underestimate Drew Lock. The Broncos went 4-1 with him as a starter, losing only to KC (Super Bowl champs). Denver averaged 26.0 PPG in his four wins. Philip Lindsay ran for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) last season but will be pushed by the acquisition of Melvin Gordon. He's always been overrated as a runner but he's an outstanding pass-catcher and fits well in OC Pat Schurmer's offense. The Broncos are appearing on "Monday Night Football" for an NFL-best 29th consecutive season and I want the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -168 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -168 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Vegas Golden Knights at 8:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Monday morning. |
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09-14-20 | Twins -134 v. White Sox | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" At first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason appearance (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a quick check of the AL Central standings Monday morning reveals the 30-16 White Sox atop the division with the 30-18 Twins just one game back. As for the Indians, they are 26-21, 4 1/2 back of Chicago. The first and second place teams in each division make the playoffs, so it's fair to say that as the Twins and White Sox open a four-games series in Chicago on Monday night, "it's a big deal!' The Twins own a 4-2 edge against the White Sox this season but Chicago is surely 'feeling the love' and momentum from going 20-5 since the team was just 10-11 back on the morning of Aug 16.Chicago has outscored opponents 164-79 during its recent tear. The Twins opened 10-2 but were only 20-16 through the end of August. However, they head to Chicago having won 10 of 12. Getting the starts in this opening game will be Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.40 ERA) of Minnesota and Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.33 ERA) of Chicago. Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been so-so. The Twins are just 5-4 in his nine starts but there is good news. The first piece of good news is that he's won his last two outings (3.27 ERA) and the second piece is his career DOMINATION of the White Sox. This will be his third starts of 2020 against Chicago (both Minnesota wins) and he'll enter this game 12-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 16 starts against the White Sox (109 Ks in 103.2 innings), with the Twins winning 14 of those 16 starts (that's an 88% winning situation). Cease made 14 starts last season for Chicago (rookie year), going 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (team was 6-8 in his starts). He struggled in his first start of 2020 (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) but in SIX August starts, looked pretty good. He allowed a modest eight ERs over 33.2 innings in that span, posting a 2.14 ERA. He's made two September starts, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. I like Cease but while he hasn't started against Minnesota this season, he's 0-2 with a WHOPPING 16.71 ERA in two career starts against the Twins. Considering Berrios' career mark against Chicago, the Twins are the 'easy' pick. Now, let's win it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-14-20 | Cardinals -106 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cardinals at 5:10 ET. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they open the new week (two weeks to the end of the regular season) 20-20 and in second place in the NL Central, FOUR games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs and two games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won the NL Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) and then won 89 games last year to earn a wild card spot, where they blew a 3-0 lead in losing to the Nats. Milwaukee welcomes the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the team begins a five-games series over three days (Weds doubleheader on tap, as well). For the Cards, Monday kicks off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three doubleheaders are scheduled. By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. Getting the nod in Game 1 on Monday will be the Cards' Kwang Hyun Kim (2-0, 0.83 ERA) and the Brewers' Josh Lindblom (1-3, 6.06 ERA). Kim played in the KBO from 2007-2019, winning MVP honors in 2008 and was part of four championship teams (2007, '08, '10 and '18). He signed a two-year contract worth $11 million on December 17, 2019 with St Louis. Kim will make the fifth start of his first season in the majors, with his last outing coming when he pitched five scoreless innings on Sep 1 against the Cincinnati Reds. In his four starts, he's 2-0 (team is 3-1) with an 0.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Lindblom has quite a story. He was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2nd round of the 2008 MLB draft and made his major league debut in relief on June 1, 2011. He then spent time with Philly, Texas and Oakland through 2014, before playing in the KBO in 2015 and '16. He signed with Pittsburgh in 2017 but pitched just four games, before returning to the KBO. He went 15-4 (2.98 ERA) in 2018 and 20-3 (2.50 ERA) in 2019, winning the MVP. That was enough for him to sign a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. He opened the season making seven straight starts but his last two appearances were out of the bullpen. The Brewers were 3-1 in his first four starts but 0-3 in his last three, as he allowed 15 hits and nine ERs over just 13 innings (6.23 ERA). The St Louis pitching staff may be 'gassed' by the end of this 13-game, 10-day road trip but in today's first game of the doubleheader, I'm "all over" Kim and the Cards. Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Los Angeles Rams open their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night and their opponents will be Jerry Jones' Dallas Cowboys (Jones knows a little about building a spectacular venue. Obviously, the absence of fans because of the coronavirus pandemic puts a massive asterisk on what should have been a triumphant occasion for the league and two of its most important owners, Jones and LA's Stan Kroenke. The Cowboys come to LA with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) takes over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Sean McVay was 30-years-old when he was hired by the Rams in 2017 at the age of 30, becoming the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. The Rams went 11-5 and earned a wild card berth in his first year and then in 2018. McVay led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, becoming the youngest coach ever to do so and earning him the NFL Coach of the Year award. The Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs. The Cowboys were a disappointing 8-8 last season and FINALLY, Jones gave Garrett the boot. QBB Dak Prescott (4,902 passing yards / 30-11 TD/INT ratio), RB Zeke Elliot (1,357 yards rushing with 12 TDs and 54 catches) and WR Omari Cooper (79 catches / 15.1 YPC / 8 TDs) are Dallas' current version of "The Triplets" (note: Don't tell that to Troy, Emmitt and Michael). Gallup caught 66 passes last season (16.8 YPC and 6 TDs) and joining Cooper and Gallup on the outside is Oklahoma star WR CeeDee Lamb. There is little doubt that the Cowboys have an offense that can match ANY in the league but that was the case last season too, and the team finished 8-8. was one of the NFL's best last season. The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy. Well see. The outlook is far murkier for the Rams, Their roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks. Top to pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton are also gone. QB Jared Goff was drafted 134 picks before Prescott in 2016, but Prescott has passed for more yards (15,778 to 14,219) and TDs (97 to 87) with a higher completion rate (65.8% to 62.4%) and fewer interceptions (36 to 42). However, after McVay's arrival, Goff's played in FOUR playoff games (including A Super Bowl), while Prescott's Cowboys have missed the playoffs TWICE in his four years, winning just ONE postseason game. These teams met in Week 15 last season in Dallas, as the Rams suffered a thorough beatdown, with the Cowboys winning 44-21 and finishing with a 475-289 yard advantage. However, it's notable that Dallas was one-point dog in that contest while here in LA for Week 1, Dallas opened as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys were just 3-5 on the road last season, winning games at Washington, at the NY Giants and at Detroit. Those teams combined for a 10-37-1 (.219) record in 2019. Dallas lost at playoffs teams New I=Orleans, New England and Philly, with the team's 'revered' offense averaging a pathetic 9.3 PPG. BTW...The Cowboys also lost at the Jets and Bears, who were both 7-9. The home dog 'BARKS' in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
My NFL Week 1 Marquee Play is on the NO Saints at 4:25 ET. This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016). Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Mets v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 3:07 ET. The Mets pounded the Blue Jays 18-1 on Friday but Toronto bounced back Saturday to win 3-2. That sets up the "rubber" match of this three-game series on Sunday afternoon. The regular season ends in two weeks (Sunday, Sep 27) and both teams are fighting for a postseason berth. Toronto's Saturday win allowed the Blue Jays (25-20) to maintain a half-game lead for second place in the AL East (third-place New York Yankees are). As for the 21-25 Mets, they are two games out of a National League wild-card spot. New York sends rookie David Peterson (4-1, 4.26 ERA) to the mound, while Toronto counters with veteran Hyun Jin Ryu (3-1, 3.19 ERA). Peterson had some shoulder inflammation in mid-August and spent the minimum 10 days on the injured list. He's returned to make three appearances, earning a win as a reliever over the Baltimore Orioles Sep 2, pitching four scoreless innings. However, in his two starts, he's lasted just six innings while allowing eight ERs (12.00 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but had a red-hot August. He allowed one run or less in all five of his August starts, posting a 1.29 ERA, with Toronto going 4-1. He took a no-decision in that lone team loss, a game the Rays won 2-1 in 10 innings. He open2d Sep with another no-decision but again pitched well (6 IP / 1 ER) and Toronto won 2-1. He tool the mound on :Labor Day the Yankees and allowed six hits (3 HRs) and five ERs in five innings but the Jays came back to win 12-7. The Jays are a MONEY-MAKING 7-2 in his nine starts and Toronto got more good news on Saturday, as shortstop Bo Bichette (sprained right knee) returned to Toronto's lineup from the injured list. He went 1-for-4 in his first game since Aug 15.Bichette missed 27 games, and his return should help a team that recently lost Teoscar Hernandez (oblique strain) and Rowdy Tellez (knee strain). Bichette is batting .354/.382/.646 with 5 HRs and 13 RBI. I'm backing Toronto and RYU. Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | A's v. Rangers +129 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 129 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tex Rangers at 2:35 ET. Oakland and Texas wrap up a three-day, four-game series on Sunday afternoon. The first-place A's (29-16) have moved closer to the AL West title with two wins in the first three games of the series, making them 4-2 this season at the Rangers' new home. Meanwhile, the 16-30 Rangers reside in last place in the division and as the saying goes, "they're playoff chances are slim and none, with Slim having just left town!" However, as far as this game is concerned, the pitching matchup favors the Rangers, as Oakland's Frankie Montas (3-3, 5.73 ERA) goes up against Texas ace Lance Lynn (5-2, 2.52 ERA).The Dodgers traded Montas to the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2016 season but he did not get a call to the majors in 2016. He then appeared in 23 games for the A's in 2017 (all in relief). Montas reverted to being a starter, beginning the season at the AAA level. He appeared in 13 games (11 starts) with the A's during the season, compiling a 5–4 record with a 3.88 ERA. However, he started the 2019 season 9–2 with a 2.70 ERA in 15 games (all starts), but was then suspended 80 games without pay for testing positive for a banned substance. Montas opened the current season 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA but after dealing with some back tightness, returned to the rotation to make his first start in nine days back on Aug 18. It's fair to say he showed a little 'rust,' allowing nine ERs on six hits (two HRs) in just 1.2 innings of a 10-1 loss. His next two starts were also 'ugly,' as he allowed 13 hits, five walks and nine ERs in eight innings. That gave him a 16.76 ERA over a three-start run. Montas did bounce back this past Tuesday, winning 4-2 (7 innings) at Houston, allowing two ERs in five innings. Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400=plus innings over 257 appearances (233 starts) with a 103-70 record (3.54 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he struggled in his next two outings. He lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). However, Lyn was "back in form" this past Tuesday, beating the Angels 7-1 (7 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER). Look closely at Lynn's 2020 numbers, compared to his lifetime ones. His 2.52 ERA is a FULL run lower (3.54), his WHIP is 0.98 (1.29 LT) and his BAA is .182, 61 points better than his LT mark (.243). went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 4-1 (2.00 ERA) at home here in 2020. This home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills OVER 39.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "Featured" Total of the Week is on NYJ/Buf Over at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East. The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings -1 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC Central) is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikes to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. He knows a non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable. Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur had quite a 'rookie year' with the Packers in 2019 (first-ever head coaching job), as he led the Packers to a 13-3 record and a spot in the NFC championship game (forgettable 37-20 loss at San Francisco in a contest that was NOT as close as the final score). The Packers beat the Vikings in BOTH 2019 meetings, 21-16 in Week 2 at Green Bay and 23-10 at Minnesota in Week 16. The two NFC Central rivals open their respective 2020 seasons on Sunday in Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th). Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. RB Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019 (1,135 yards with 13 TDs plus 63 catches), despite missing the last two regular season contests. Minnesota loses outstanding WR Stefon Diggs (traded to Buffalo) but Adam Thielen is back healthy and don't forget, he had 91 catches in 2017 and 113 in 2018. Also, expect a big season from TE Kyle Rudolph (39 catches / 6 TDs). Zimmer's 'baby' has been the Minnesota defense but wholesale changes have been made with both DL and DB positions. Cousins was terrific in 2019 BUT was just terrible in his two meetings with Green Bay, as he had his two-lowest passer ratings of the year at 52.9 and 58.8.Let n]me add that Dalvin Cook was not able to play in that Week 16 loss. However, here's the rub. How badly do you think Minnesota wants this game? Consider this. For the first time in the franchise's 60 seasons, the Vikings have their opener scheduled at home against the rival Packers, an immediate opportunity to avenge their decisive defeat at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 23, 2019, that clinched the NFC North for Green Bay (Vikings were held to 7 FDs and 139 yards!). Rodgers is Rodgers but he's just 6-6 in his career at Minnesota plus the Vikings are on a 22-8-1 ATS run as a home favorite. Lay the 'small' number! Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Kansas -3.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -113 | 150 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Kansas at 10:00 ET. Coastal Carolina visited Lawrence last season on Sep 7 (2nd of the season for both schools) with the Chanticleers upsetting the Jayhawks, 12-7 as a seven-point underdog. It was hardly a classic, as neither team gained 300 yards (Coastal outgained Kansas 291-280). Kansas took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on a 41-yard TD run but NEVER scored again. CJ Marable caught a 20-yard TD pass in the second quarter for Coast Carolina (miss PAT) and then added a short TD run midway into the 3rd quarter (failed two-point conversion). Marable finished with 148 rushing and scored both TDs for the Chanticleers. There was no scoring the rest of the way, as Coastal Carolina held on for the five-point win, despite THREE missed FGs by PK Massimo Biscardi. Coastal Carolina was scheduled to host Kansas on Sep 26 of 2020 but COVID-19 has played havoc with the schedules of schools that are playing this season. The two schools kept the meeting but Coastal Carolina has to return to Lawrence again, for this meeting. That HAS to be an advantage for Kansas, which has suffered through a decade of mediocracy fostered by David Beaty, Charlie Weis, and Turner Gill. Les Miles went 112-32 (.778) in 11 full seasons as LSU's head coach (was fired after a 2-2 start in his 12th year), leading the Tigers to 11 bowls and two national championship games (won it all in 2007 but his 13-0 team lost to Alabama in 2011). Miles is tasked with changing the losing culture at Lawrence and said after last year's loss to Coastal Carolina that it was a game the Jayhawks should have won. "I'm not happy," Miles said. "This is not how I saw it going. This is not how our team saw it going. Our guys played with their hearts on their sleeves and did everything they could possibly do to win this game." RB C.J. Marable (1085 YR on 5.3 YPC with 11 TDs / 38 catches with three TDs) will again be the focal point of the Chanticleers' offense plus benefits from four OL returning. Payton and Carpenter both made starts at QB last season and while both return, redshirt freshman McCall may push for a starting job. Coastal Carolina allowed 30.5 PPG (85th) and the defense may not be any better in 2020. Kansas sure has its weaknesses but junior RB Pooka Williams (1,061 YR / 5.3 YPC) is KU's first offensive player to earn 1st-team All-Big 12 status in back-to-back seasons. QB Carter Stanley (24 TDs / 11 INTs) graduated and senior MacVittle (who red-shirted LY) is expected to play. The good news is that the team's top-two receivers return in Parchment (65 catches / 7 TDs) and Robinson (45 catches / 8 TDs).The Kansas D ranked 120th in scoring D (36.1 PPG) and 122nd in total D (475.2 YPG), which is fairly typical of that unit's performance the last decade. Most close to program say that Kansas is probably two recruiting classes away from respectability but "The Hat" knows how to coach and knows more than a little about "revenge games." The Jayhawks will play only 10 games in 2020 and the school's nine-game conference schedule begins in two weeks (Sep 26). A loss here would be a devastating way to open. I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-20 | Reds v. Cardinals -125 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. There were more than a few that tabbed the Cincinnati Reds as a 'dark horse' to challenge for the NL Central title in 2020 and at least, be a STRONG contender in the expanded playoff-field. However, the 20-25 Reds sit in fourth-place in the NL Central, 5 1/2 games back of the division-leading Cubs. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and we're off the field for 17 days. However, the Cards have kept their postseason hopes alive, as they currently find themselves three games off the division pace but also right in the thick of the playoff field. St Louis is currently in second-place in the NL Central and ALL three 2nd-place teams get a postseason berth, plus the two teams with the next best records (winning percentage!) earn wild card spots. The Reds took last night's game 3-1, as Luis Castillo suddenly found his 2019 form, pitching a two-hit CG. Cincy manager David Bell has opted to schedule rookie Tejay Antone (0-1, 2.49 ERA) for the start on Saturday, skipping over Anthony DeSclafani, who has failed to last more than 4.1 innings in his past four starts. That CAN"T be a bad idea, as DeSclafani (1-2, 7.20 ERA) is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals this season. As for Antone, he's made eight appearances (three starts) in 2020, allowing just one ER in each of his three starts (2.03 ERA / team is 1-2). Getting the nod for St Louis is Dakota Hudson (2-2, 3.19 ERA). He made 26 relief appearances for the Cards in 2018 but 32 of his 33 appearances in 2019 came in a starting role. He and Flaherty help lead the Cards to the NL Central title, with Hudson going 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA. A closer look reveals that the Cards went just 3-5 in his first eight stars but then with 19-5 over his last 24! The Cards lost Hudson's first three starts of 2020, despite him posting a 1.84 ERA. However, they've won his last three, even though his ERA in that span is 3,71. However, the bottom line is that he owns a 0.77 ERA in two starts against the Reds this season (13-2 KW ratio) and is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts / Cards are 5-1) against the Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-20 | Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Western Ky at 8:00 ET. Western Ky began the transition to NCAA Division I FBS as an Independents, in 2007 and was considered a reclassifying school for both the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to NCAA rules. Western Ky QB legend Willie Taggart returned to his alma mater as head football coach in 2010. The Hilltoppers went 2-10 in their first year under Taggart but he is credited with getting WKU's football program back on track after posting back to back 7–5 regular seasons in 2011 and 2012. The school wasn't invited to a bowl in 20011 but in 2012 the school's first FBS-level bowl game invite came the Little Caesar's Bowl. Taggart left WKU to accept the head football coach position at South Florida, prior to that bowl contest. Bobby Petrino stayed for one season but then Jeff Brohm posted an outstanding 30–10 record from 2014-16. He left for Purdue and Mike Sanford would last two disappointing seasons. Tyson Helton got the job for 2019 and he won C-USA Coach of the Year (9-4 season, including a bowl win). Louisville has rich FB tradition but after Lamar Jackson left for the NFL, the team flopped to 2-10 in 2018. However, Scott Satterfield left Appalachian St and restored some glory to program, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St..15 starters return, including QB MicaIe Cunningham (2,065 passing yards & 22-5 ratio plus 482 YR / 6 TDs), leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 RY / 5.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and WR Tutu Atwal (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs). The defense HAS to get better, as Louisville allowed 33.4 PPG (109th) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). Western Ky has 16 starters back including NINE from a defense that allowed just 20.1 PPG (22nd) on 335,5 YPG (24th). The unit's top-6 top tacklers are back. RB Gaej Walker is back after gaining 1,208 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs. Starting at QB will be Maryland transfer Tyrell Pigrome (7 career starts). These teams met in Nashville last season, with Louisville winning handily, 38-21. However, Western KY finished the season on an 8-2 run after that loss, including a 23-20 bowl win over Western Michigan. What has me playing on the Hilltoppers here is that they went 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season, giving them a two-year run of 8-1-1 as road underdogs. That's an 89% winning situation. Take the points! Good luck...Larry |
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09-12-20 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Charlotte/App St Over at 12:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Wednesday evening. |
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09-11-20 | Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* 2nd Round Game of the Year is on the Bos Celtics at 9:00 ET. The Toronto Raptors won the franchise's first-ever NBA title behind the spectacular play AND leadership of Kawhi Leonard. However, Kawhi left for the Clippers and starting SG Danny Green left for the Lakers. The cupboard was hardly left bare though, plus Nick Nurse won Coach of the Year honors in 2019, his FIRST as an NBA head coach. The Raptors finished this year's interrupted regular season with a 53-19 record, giving them the East's second-seed (note: Toronto owned a better regular season record than ALL Western Conference teams. The Raptors drew a tough second round matchup in the third-seed Celtics, who have given Toronto "more trouble" this season than ANY other team. Toronto promptly fell behind 0-2 in its best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal against Boston and few would have imagined the series going seven games. However, that's EXACTLY where we are as of Friday. Toronto 'stole' Game 3 with a winning three-pointer at the buzzer and then took Game 4, 100-93. An angered Boston team routed the Raptors111-89 in Game 5 but Toronto stayed 'alive' with a thrilling 125-122 double-OT win in Game 6. Reserve SG Norman Powell scored 15 of his 23 points in the OT periods. His three-point play with 38.8 seconds left gave the Raptors a four-point lead and his free throws with 5.0 seconds remaining helped Toronto hold on. Kyle Lowry was brilliant in scoring 33 points in 53 minutes. Joining Lowry in playing 50-plus minutes in Game 6 were Siakam (54 minutes), VanVleet (51) and OG Anunoby (50). FOUR of Boston's five starters also logged 50-plus minutes, with Brown adding 31 & 16, Tatum 29-14-9 and Smart (23-11-10), who recorded his second-career triple-double. A name you just didn't read was that of PG Kemba Walker. He played 52 minutes but was just AWFUL, scoring only FIVE points on 2 of 11 shooting. "Just a bad offensive night for me, terrible offensive night for me," Walker said. You think? I'm a big fan of the Raptors and with the top-seeded Bucks KO'd already, Toronto may just think its path to a return trip to the NBA Finals is wide-open (note: The winner of this series better be VERY afraid of the red-hot Heat). However, in watching and reviewing this series, I have concluded that Boston IS the better team. The Raptors are 7-0 in Orlando against all other opponents but just 3-4 vs the Celtics. In fact, after Boston's 111-89 Game 5 win, the Celtics owned FOUR wins over the Raptors by 15 or more points this season while the rest of the NBA, combined, has ONE! Lowry (36.9& overall / 30.0% on threes) and VanVleet (33.7% / 29.8%) have NOT shot well most of this series and I wouldn't want to rely on them here. One could argue that Tatum (23.5-10.0-5.0) and Brown (20.7 & 8.8) have been the two-best players in the series plus Smart (12.8-5.4-5.8) has started the last nine games (for Hayward), including posting a line of 15.7-6.7-5.0 vs Toronto. As for Walker, after a subpar showing in Game 4, he responded with 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting in the blowout victory in Game 5. Want a bonus prop bet? Take the OVER in Walker's posted point total for Game 7. More importantly, make a "Big Play" on the Celtics in this Game 7. Not for nothing, the Celtics are 23-9 all-time in Game 7s. Good luck...Larry |
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09-11-20 | Reds v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. There were more than a few that tabbed the Cincinnati Reds as a 'dark horse' to challenge for the NL Central title in 2020 and at least, be a STRONG contender in the expanded playoff-field. However, after the Reds lost to the Chicago Cubs 8-5 last night (in a game that dragged past midnight because of a rain delay at the outset), the 19-25 Reds sit in fourth-place in the NL Central, 6 1/2 games back of the decision-leading Cubs. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and we're off the field for 17 days. However, the Cards have kept their postseason hopes alive and coming off of a doubleheader split against the Detroit Tigers on Thursday, find themselves three games off the division pace but also right in the thick of the playoff field. St Louis is currently in second-place in the NL Central and ALL there 2nd-place teams get a postseason berth, plus the two teams with the next best records (winning percentage!) earn wild card spots. The Cards host the Reds for this three-game weekend series, which begins a 13-game stretch against NL Central foes. FIVE games in three days against Milwaukee (two DHs) comes next (Mon-Wed) and then FIVE games in four days with Pittsburgh (1 DH) follows Thu-Sun. The Reds will send Luis Castillo (1-5, 3.95 ERA) to the mound tonight, while the Cards will counter with Adam Wainwright (4-0, 2.68 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the Tigers. Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, Sorry Luis! He FINALLY got his FIRST win of 2020 in his last outing, in his EIGHTH start of the season. Castillo allowed two runs on seven hits while striking out eight in six innings as the Reds beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2. He had posted a 4.09 ERA through his first seven starts of 2020, with the Reds losing SIX of those seven. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he then took a no-decision in a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs) on Aug 25. Wainwright turned back the clock with a complete game on his 39th birthday as the Cardinals beat the Cleveland Indians 7-2 on Aug 30 (Wainwright threw a four-hitter for his 23rd career complete game and first in four years)! He then held the Cubs to two runs on six hits and one walk in 6.1 innings of a 4-2 victory last Saturday (Aug 5). I have NO idea why this is basically a pick'em game! Castillo has been a bust, while Wainwright has built off his strong September finish of 2019 (Cards are 10-2 in his regular season starts since Sep 1 of 2019). Also of note, the Cards own a plus-27 run differential on the season, while the Reds are minus-27. This game is rated a toss-up? I just DON'T get it! Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-20 | Reds -132 v. Cubs | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -132 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 8:15 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Thursday morning. |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Hou Rockets at 7:00 ET. Houston's "small ball" won out in Game 1 of this series, as the team's excellent trio of guards dominated the game. Harden scored 36 points, Westbrook 24-9-6 and Gordon 23. Here's the 'autopsy.' Houston pulled away in Game 1, outscoring the Lakers 27-18 in the fourth quarter to lead by as many as 19 points in a comfortable 112-97 victory. Houston held the Lakers to 97 points, 42.2 percent shooting from the floor, including 11-of-38 from three-point range (28.9%). The rebounding numbers were even (41-41), a big win considering the Rockets are so undersized plus shot 27 FTs to LA's 19, the result of being more aggressive. The Rockets also scored 27 points off of 15 Lakers TOs. "I think it's the speed," LBJ said after the game. "They play with a lot of speed both offensively and defensively. And you can watch it on film and you can see it on film; until you get out there and get a feel for it [you cannot comprehend it]. That's what we did tonight. We got a feel for their speed, and we should be fully aware of that going into Game 2." LA took a 67-51 lead at half in Game 2 but Houston won the 3rd quarter 41023 to take a two-point lead into the 4th. LA prevailed by holding the Rockets to 17 points in the final period to win (AND cover), 117-109. The Lakers shot 56,6% as a team in Game 2. Game 3 was again close, as the teams were tied entering the 4th, However, the Lakers again won the decisive final period (30-20) to win 112-102. Again, LA shot 55.1% as a team, overcoming Harden's 33 points and Westbrook's 30. The Rockets haven't been able to beat the Lakers or Warriors come playoff time in recent years and losing Game 4 to fall behind 3-1 in this series, will surely be a 'death nell.' The Rockets played extremely well offensively for lengthy stretches this series but momentum has turned in the fourth quarter in each of the last two games, as the Lakers' defense has held Houston to just 17 and 20 points, respectively. Here's the two key stretches in those games. Trailing 92-90 entering the final period in Game 2, the Lakers held Houston to 2-for-8 shooting and forced two turnovers during a 14-4 run to take the lead. Then, with the score tied at 82 at the close of the third quarter of Game 3, the Rockets missed 4 of 6 shot attempts while committing three turnovers during the decisive stretch that fueled a 17-5 Lakers rally. Houston needs Harden, Westbrook and Gordon to reprise their Game 1 efforts offensively and for the entire Houston team to play defensively like it did in Game 1, as well. LBJ and LBY make one fabulous duo but the rest of the Lakers can easily 'go in the tank. NOT sure Houston can win THREE of the next four and take this series but Game 4 is clearly a "MUST-WIN" situation for them. I'm taking the points but predict a SU Houston win. Remember, LA's three starters (other than AD and LBJ) scored a combined 14 points in Game 2 and just EIGHT points in Game 3. Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-20 | Astros v. A's -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Oak A's at 3:40 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 'unique' 2020 season (60-game schedule) having won THREE straight AL West tiles (101, 103 & 107 wins) and two World Series appearances (win in 2017 and lost in 2019). The Oakland Athletics had won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 but each time, lost in the winner-take-all wild card game. Here's where the AL situation as of Thursday morning, Sep 10. Houston opened just 7-10 but an EIGHT-game winning streak got them to 15-10. Houston was six games over .500 through games played Sep 3 (21-15) but then suffered a four-game sweep at the Angels over Labor Day weekend and have lost THREE of the first four here in Oakland in this five-game series, The 22-22 Astros are now 5 1/2 games back of the A's as the teams meet Thursday afternoon in Oakland. The A's opened 22-10 but then saw SIX games postponed from Aug 27 through Sep 3, losing both ends of a doubleheader to the Astros on Aug 29, the only games the team played during the above-mentioned eight-day span. Oakland returned to the field on Sep 4 and lost TWO of three to San Diego, before taking THREE of four vs Houston, with Thursday's series final going today. Houston and Oakland square off today at 3:40 ET in the series finale, with the 26-15 A's leading the 22-22 Astros by 5 1/2 games. Both teams know that if the A's win, the Astros will be 6 1/2 games back of the A's with just 18 to play. Houston wasted a big-time effort from rookie Luis Garcia in his first big-league start on Wednesday (five scoreless innings while allowing just ONE hit) but the A's would come back from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 on a walk-off single in the 9th. Houston is hoping for a similar effort from another young right-hander tonight, Jose Urquidy (0-0, 4.91 ERA). That may be asking "too much," as Urquidy has made just 10 career appearances (eight starts), with a 4.03 ERA. Seam Manea win 12 games in back-to-back seasons for Oakland in 2017 and 2018 (no-hit the Red Sox on 4/21/18) but was limited to just FIVE starts in 2019 after rehabbing from shoulder surgery that took place in Sep of 2018. However, he made his 2019 season debut in September and went 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP (30 Ks in 29 .2 innings. Big things were expected in 2020 but he flopped in his first four starts, going 0-2 (team was 1-3) with a 9.00 ERA. However, the late 2019 Manaea has emerged in his last four starts, going 3-0 (team is 40-0) with a 2.21 ERA. Manaea has not had much luck vs Houston in his 12 career starts (he's 2-5 and the A's are 3-9) but note his ERA of 3.48 points to the fact that the Astros have not exactly 'lit him up!' The Astros were MLB's best road team from 2017-2019, going 157-86 (.646) but that was THEN and this is NOW. Houston is 6-16 (.273) on the road in 2020, ranking them among MLB's worst road teams this season. Meanwhile, the A's opened the current season having gone 102-60 (.630) in home games the last two seasons and are playing even better (percentage-wise) here at home in 2020, going 17-7 (.708). More road woes again here for Houston. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-20 | Yankees -130 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Yankees at 6:37 ET. Before the start of the 2020 season was postponed in March, the Dodgers and Yankees were favored to meet in the 2020 World Series. Following the announcement of a 60-game season, the World Series title odds were released by various sportsbooks. At Bovada, the Dodgers and Yankees were co-favorites at +375. The adjusted season win totals for the 60-game season (teams must play 59 games) had the Dodgers at 37 wins and the Yankees at 36.5. So where do we stand as of the morning of Sep 9? The Dodgers own MLB's best record (31-12) and lead the NL West by 4 1/2 games, with their .721 winning percentage putting them on pace to win 43 games. As for the Yankees, they are a hard-to-believe 21-21, 6 1/2 games out of first and barely holding on to the AL's final wild card spot. The team's .500 record naturally projects to a 30-win season. Who'da thunk it! The Yankees opened 9-2 and were 16-6 through Aug 17, before losing SEVEN in a row. a 4-1 stretch followed but New York has now lost SEVEN of eight, including FIVE straight. Doing the math, since the team's 16-6 start, the Yankees are 5-15. Meanwhile, The Blue Jays were not allowed to play their home games in Toronto, so they relocated to Buffalo for their home games. Coming off a 67-95 (.414) season in 2019 (36 games behind the first-place Yankees), NOTHING was expected of Toronto in 2020. However, the Blue Jays were 7-11 around the same time the Yankees were 16-6 but have gone 17-7 since Aug 17. The Jays have won the first two contests of this three-game series and look to complete a sweep tonight. Toronto is currently 24-18, just 3 1/2 games back of the Rays and THREE games up on the Yankees) Taking the mound on Wednesday will be New York rookie Deivi Garcia (0-1, 338 ERA) and Toronto veteran Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.74 ERA). Garcia made his major-league debut on Aug 30 with six innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets in which he allowed four hits and one unearned run while striking out six (Yankees won 5-2). He then allowed four runs and five hits on Friday in 4.2 innings to take the loss against the Baltimore Orioles. Roark spent his first six seasons in Washington before being traded prior to the 2019 season. He split last year between Cincinnati and Oakland while reaching double digits in victories for the FOURTH time in the last six seasons. He's made seven starts in 2020 and while he's just 2-1, it should be noted that the Jays have won SIX of his seven starts. However, the question to be asked is why? Roark entered the current season 74-64 in his career with a 3.71 ERA. Here in 2020, his ERA is 5.74, his WHIP 1.79 and his BAA is an 'ugly' .317. Comparing his 2020 stats to his career numbers find that his 2020 ERA is about TWO full runs higher than his career ERA (3.76), his 2020 WHIP is 0.54 higher than his career (1.25) and that brutal .317 BAA is 64 points higher than his career BAA. Yes, Judge and Stanton remain out but I see the remaining Yankee bats should have little trouble getting to Roark, whose current 2020 season has been a 'mirage." Take the rook! Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Vegas Golden Knights at 8:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning. |
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09-08-20 | Angels v. Rangers +118 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 118 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers welcome the LA Angels to Arlington Tuesday night for the opener of a three-game series. Texas enters on a SIX-game losing streak and at 13-27, pretty much has resigned itself that its season will end in late September (currently sits 7 1/2 games out of a playoff position). The Angels may have felt the same way back on the morning of Sep3, as they were just 12-25. However, LA has won FIVE in a row since Sep e, including a four-game home sweep of the Astros. The Angels are now 17-25 and are 4 1/2 games back in the postseason race. Tuesday's pitching matchup features LA's Andrew Heaney (3-2, 3.89 ERA) squaring off against the Rangers' Lance Lynn (4-2, 2.67 ERA). Heaney was the Angels' Opening Day starter but had failed to last at least six innings in any of his first six starts, with an ERA of 5.52 (Angels went 1-5 in those starts). However, he's turned things around his last two outings with back-to-back wins in which he's allowed just one ER over 14.2 innings (0.61 ERA). His ERA on the season has dropped from 5.52 in those first six starts to 3.89. Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged EXACTLY 1,400 innings over 256 appearances (232 starts) with a 102-70 record (3.55 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he's struggled in his last two outings. He's lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). The Angels enter on a five-game winning streak with Heaney posting an 0.61 ERA in his last two starts, while the Rangers come in on a six-game slide, with their ONLY pitcher of note struggling in his last two (6.75 ERA). Is the obvious play on LA? Maybe but I have little faith in Heaney recent two-game surge plus the Rangers have hit him well, as Heaney owns a 5.28 ERA in 11 career starts vs Texas, including a loss this season when he allowed five runs and eight hits in just 3.2 innings back on Aug 9. Lynn went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 3-1 (2.17 ERA) at home here in 2020. This home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-20 | Heat v. Bucks +3 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks owned the NBA's best regular season record in the 2019-20 season (56-17) for the second straight year (went 60-22 last season). The Bucks fell in the Eastern Conference finals last season to Toronto, losing FOUR straight after taking a 2-0 lead. The Bucks looked disinterested in the Orlando bubble, as they finished their eight-game schedule 3-5 and were then shocked by the eighth-seed Magic in Game 1 of their first round series. However, the Magic really never had the talent to stay with the Bucks, who promptly won FOUR in a row with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. The Miami Heat, who finished 12 games worse (44-29) than Milwaukee in the regular season, swept the Pacers 4-0 in the first round and then shocked the Bucks in Game 1 of this series. Many (most?) felt like it would be no more than a blip, with Milwaukee 'righting the ship' much like they did vs the Magic. That was NOT the case though, as Miami won Games 2 and 3 as well, taking a 3-0 lead. All are aware that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 playoff series deficit to win but the Bucks 'gutted out' a 1118-115 OT win in Game 4, to extend the series at least ONE more game. Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his ankle in Game 3 and his status was uncertain entering Game 4. Giannis would score 19 points in just 11 minutes but he re-injured the ankle and never returned after leaving in the second quarter. Milwaukee prevailed behind Khris Middleton's 36 points (8 rebounds and 8 assists), who played 48 minutes. Milwaukee starters Lopez (42) and Bledsoe (40) also reached the 40-minutes of playing time mark, while Miami players felt as if they 'let their guard down' after Giannis left the game. That sets the stage for Game 5. Miami is well-coached by Erik Spoelstra (he's VERY under-appreciated) and all five starters are averaging in double digits, while rookie Herro comes off the bench to chip in 14.8-4.5-3.0. Swingman Butler (22.4-5.0-4.0) and PG Dragic (21.6-4.5-6.0) have been superb, while the ever-improving PF Adebayo(16.6-12.4-5.1) leads the team in rebounding AND assists. Make no mistake, this Miami team is for real. However, I'm still NOT ready to concede the series to the Heat. If Giannis can go, Miami also has five double-digit scorers (four starters plus backup Hill off the bench) and solid depth off the bench. Obviously, the health of Antetokounmpo remains the primary storyline. The Bucks have listed him as questionable for Game 5 and it will almost assuredly be a game-time decision. "We know he's laying it on the line out there for us," Middleton said of Antetokounmpo after his terrific Game 4 effort. "His ankle's already in bad shape. ...Hopefully, we'll have him back again for the next game. But, if not, we still have to play as hard as we can. We've got to fight every night to keep on playing." I'm clearly hoping that Giannis plays but I'm on the Bucks, either way. Good luck...Larry |
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09-08-20 | Twins -128 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Min Twins at 3:15 ET. The 17-16 St Louis Cardinals host the 26-17 Minnesota Twins in an interleague doubleheader on Tuesday. Both teams won their respective Central Division titles last season, St Louis in the NL and Minnesota in the AL. Both are currently in second-place in those divisions, St Louis 2 1/2 games off the pace in the NL Central while Minnesota is just ONE game back in the AL Central. The Cards opened 2-3 but a COVID-19 outbreak sidelined the team for 17 days. The Cards' schedule will be jammed-packed down the stretch but enter this three-game series having won SIX of nine. The Twins opened the season 10-2 and were still 20-12 the morning of Aug 25, when they went on a SIX-game losing streak. However, Minnesota is back on track entering this contest, having won SIX of its last seven. The Starting pitchers for Game 1 of this twin-bill will be Jose Berrios (3-3, 4.29 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (0-1, 14.73 ERA). Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, he's had a disappointing current season, as the Twins are just 4-4 in his eight starts. That said, Berrios looked like his "old self" in his last outing, recording an 8-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings, while striking out EIGHT batters. Carlos Martinez is yet another example of St Louis turning a reliever into an effective starter. From 2015 through 2017 Martinez had seasons of 14-7 (3.01 ERA), 16-9 (3.04 ERA) and 12-11 (3.64 ERA), while making 92 starts. However, he was in and out of the starting rotation in 2018, going 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 33 appearances (18 starts). He returned to the bullpen full-time in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief), going 4-2 (3.17 ERA) with 24 saves. He was back in the starting rotation at the start of this season but was HAMMERED in his season debut, allowing six ERs on seven hits in just 3.2 innings in a July 28 start at Minnesota. Here's the rub. Martinez was one of the StL players to be sidelined with COVID-19 at the end of July and this marks his first start since recovering. He returns to the club after training at the team's alternate training site in Springfield, Mo., under the guidance of minor league pitching coordinator Tim Leveque and longtime Cardinals coach Jose Oquendo. How will he do? He can't be worse than his only other start this year, against these same Twins (see above for a reminder). I sure wouldn't want to trust him here, as the Twins have recovered nicely from their six-game slide and I expect them to ruin Martinez's return debut. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-20 | Clippers -9 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The Denver Nuggets came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Utah Jazz in the first round and then with ONE day off between that grueling series and Game 1 of their second round series with the LA Clippers, got manhandled 120-97. Denver shot an abysmal 9 of 36 on threes (25%) and the team's two stars, center Nikola Jokic and PG Jamal Murray both fizzled. Jokic was held to a line of 15-3-3 and Murray scored only 12 points, shooting 5 of 15 from the floor (2 of 8 from three-point range). Kawhi led LA with 29 points, while George (19), Morris (18) and Harrell (15) all added solid support. However, Denver has a knack of getting its opponents out of their comfort zone and did just that in Game 2. Murray (27) and Jokic (260 bounced back with excellent games but more importantly, the Nuggets adjusted their defense to collapse inside and block the passing lanes back outside. The change resulted in the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard delivering his worst performance of the playoffs so far. Kawhi just missed a triple-double (13-10-8) but was an AWFUL 4 of 17 from the floor. His teammates didn't fare very well either, as after shooting 57.1% as a team in Game 1 (including 41.7% on threes), the Clippers shot just 40.9%, including 28.1% (9 of 32). The series is tied at one-all as it resumes Labor Day evening. The Nuggets have been in three previous playoff series the last two postseason and all three have gone SEVEN games. Are we headed for another seven-game series in this one? Some worrisome news for Denver is that it announced Sunday night that Jokic was listed as questionable for Game 3 with a sprained right wrist. The Clippers twice had a one-game lead on the Dallas Mavericks only to see their opponent even the series. However, LA bounced back from a Game to loss to Dallas to win 130-122 and after a Game 4 loss, routed the Mavs 154-11 to go up 3-2 (closed out the series in Game 6. "We will be better for Game 3," George told reporters. "There's no pep talk for it. It's the playoffs. We got to be ready. We've got to come out a lot stronger and we'll be up for the fight." Leonard's run of scoring at least 29 points in each game of the playoffs ended Saturday in Game 2. Anyone really NOT think he'll be a 'MONSTER' in Game 3? Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Navy at 8:00 ET. The 2020 college football season will surely be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its original schedule have decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and has scrambled to patch together a 2020 schedule that at the moment contains just EIGHT games, only two of which were on the school's original schedule (Houston and North Alabama, an FCS school). The first two games on BYU's 2020 schedule are contests against two of the nation's three service academies. The Cougars open Labor Day evening at Navy and play their second game Sep 16 at Army. BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. Would BYU 'take back' that contract extension if it could? Navy's Ken Niumatalolo took over for Paul Johnson back in 2008 and has led the Midshipmen to 10 winning seasons (and bowls) in his 12 years at the school. However, he and Navy entered the 2019 season off a brutal 3-10 year in 2018. The school's losing streak didn't last long, as the Midshipmen authored one of the finest single-season turnarounds in FBS history by going from 3-10 to 11-2, after beating Kansas St 20-17 (OT) in the Liberty Bowl. Navy's Malcolm Perry set a FBS record for rushing yards by a QB with 2,017, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring 21 rushing TDs. Navy led the nation with 360.5 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC while scoring 52 rushing TDs. Perry is gone but senior Dalen Morris takes over triple-option and had a strong preseason camp after appearing briefly in four games over the past two seasons. Navy returns its top-three RBs, including FB Jamlae Carothers (734 yards on 6.6 YPC and 14 TDs) and will once again feature a 'deep' group of RBs. Defensively, Navy was greatly improved last season, as after allowing 33.5 PPG on 426 YPG in 2018, the team allowed just 22.3 PPG last season (skewered by allowing 52 in a loss at Notre Dame) on 314 YPG (ranked 16th among FBS schools). Getting back to BYU, the Cougars dealt with numerous injuries to last season's offense, including to starting QB Zach Wilson. Wilson was recovering from shoulder surgery early in the 2019 season but is healthy and set to go. All five OL starters return but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019 (team averaged just 159.1 YPG on the ground). Three standout WRs all graduated. but the good news is that TE Mark Bushman decided to return for his senior year. He had 44 catches last season with four TDs (has 125 catches in his career). BYU's defense allowed a credible 25.5 PPG last season and will return seven starters. BYU's 'patchwork' 2020 schedule opens this cross-country trip to Annapolis and the game was not announced until August 6th, the Cougars have not had a lot of time to prep for Navy’s triple option. As MTSU learned on Saturday at Army, that can be 'deadly!' Now BYU is a MUCH better team than MTSU but also, Navy is a MUCH better team than Army. no 42-0 blowout here but at this 'price,' Navy is my Game of the Week! Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-20 | Diamondbacks -104 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz D'backs at 8:05 ET. The San Francisco Giant began the 2020 season off years of 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 through 2019. They finished 29 games back of the Dodgers last season and the Giants' three World Series titles (in 2010, 2012 and 2014) felt more like 20 years ago, not 6-10 years ago. The Arizona D'backs went 85-77 in 2019 and while no one expected the D'backs to contend with LA for the NL West title (after all, Arizona finished 21 games back of the Dodgers in 2019), an expanded playoff field in 2020 gave the Arizona faithful hope in this shortened 60-game schedule. However, after opening 13-11, Arizona lost EIGHT in a row (from Aug 19-26), before snapping its losing skid with a 7-4 win at home against the Giants on Aug 27. The D'backs then promptly lost FIVE in a row, before winning 6-5 in San Francisco on Friday. However, the D'backs lost Saturday and Sunday and enter Monday's series finale just 15-26, a WHOPPING 14 1/2 games back of the division-leading Dodgers. As for the Giants, they were only 8-16 on the morning of Aug 17 but they've won 12 of 17 since. They are now 20-21 and FIVE games better than the D'backs but more importantly are 4 1/2 games back of the second-place Padres. ALL second-place teams earn a playoff spot and while the Giants probably can't catch San Diego, they are certainly capable of earning one of the NL's two wild card spots. Taking the mound Labor Day evening will be Zac Gallen (1-0, 1.80 ERA) of Arizona and Kevin Gausman (2-2, 4.43 ERA). Yes, Gallen has just that one decision in EIGHT starts here in 2020 but a closer look reveals that he's been Arizona's most effective starter all season. He's NOT allowed more than two ERs in ANY of his eight starts this season (team is 5-3 in those starts), posting an 0.94 WHIP and .182 BAA against to go along with his sub-.2.00 ERA. Gausman is in his eighth big league season and the Giants are his FOURTH team (career record of 49-65, with a 4.30 ERA). He's made eight appearances so far in 2020 (seven starts), with the Giants going 2-5 in his seven starts. He has no real history to speak of vs the D'backs, going 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four games (three starts / teams are 1-2 & his ERA is 3.57). This is the final meeting of the season between these two NL west rivals, with the Giants having won SEVEN of the first nine. Add to that, the fact that the Diamondbacks have lost 15 of their last 17 games and one may ask, "Why play Arizona?" The reason is Zac Gallen who owns the major league record with 23 starts allowing three or fewer ERs to begin a career. Not bad, huh? D'backs are WAY better than their record and get the "W" in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Lakers at 8:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in my Game 1 analysis of Hou/LA on Friday. The Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers at the start of the playoffs and after Game 1, 'tongues were wagging!' The Lakers shot just 35.1 percent from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!) in Game 1 but then won FOUR straight from Portland. It sure didn't hurt the Lakers that Lillard dislocated the index finger on his left hand in Game 2 and was never the same. However, LA averaged 123.3 PPG in the four straight wins, while shooting 52.2% from the floor in that span. A.D. averaged 29.8-9.4-4.2 in the series, while LBJ chipped in 27.4-10.2-10.2. Is LA's 'dynamic duo' enough to lead the Lakers to the title this postseason? LA is well-rested (last played on Aug 29) as the team gets set to meet the Houston Rockets. The Rockets needed all SEVEN games to get past OKC and just finished off the Thunder on Wednesday, edging them 104-102. Harden led Houston in scoring vs OKC, averaging 29.7-6.3-8.0 but his three-point shooting was way off most of the series (31.3%). Fellow superstar Russell Westbrook finally returned for Game 5 of the team's first round series and averaged just 14.7 PPG, about HALF his regular season average of 27.2 PPG. Without center Capela (13.9 & 13.3) since late January, the Rockets have turned to a 'small ball' philosophy and have gone 19-13 (team was 29-18 when Capela was lost for the season). FOUR more Rockets average in double digits in support of Harden and Westbrook, while starting PF Tucker chips in 8.6 & 7.7 and some VERY tough defense. We saw last night with the Clippers routing the Nuggets (LAC were my Las Vegas Insider play), a team coming off a tough seven-game series with just one day before facing a well-rested formidable opponent can get 'steamrolled!'. One team got steamrolled alright but it was the Lakers, NOT the Rockets. Houston's "small ball" won out, as the team's excellent trio of guards dominated the game. Harden scored 36 points, Westbrook 24-9-6 and Gordon 23. Here's the 'autopsy.' Houston pulled away in Friday night's Game 1, outscoring the Lakers 27-18 in the fourth quarter to lead by as many as 19 points in a comfortable 112-97 victory. Houston held the Lakers to 97 points, 42.2 percent shooting from the floor, including 11-of-38 from three-point range (28.9%). The rebounding numbers were even (41-41), a big win considering the Rockets are so undersized plus shot 27 FTs to LA's 19, the result of being more aggressive. The Rockets also scored 27 points off of 15 Lakers TOs. "I think it's the speed," James said after the game. "They play with a lot of speed both offensively and defensively. And you can watch it on film and you can see it on film; until you get out there and get a feel for it [you cannot comprehend it]. That's what we did tonight. We got a feel for their speed, and we should be fully aware of that going into Game 2." I have my doubts regarding LA's title hopes (will A.D. and LBJ be enough) but I won't hesitate to lay the points in this classic bounce-back spot for the Lakers. Good luck...Larry |
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09-06-20 | Astros -145 v. Angels | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Hou Astros at 4:10 ET. The Houston Astros came to Anaheim on Friday with a modest 21-15 record. After all, the Astros had won THREE straight AL West titles, while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. However, the Astros were two games back of the A's in 2020 and hoped to pick up some ground against the Angels, with a FIVE-game series at Oakland looming Monday-Thursday. And why shouldn't the Astros have been thinking that way? The Angels entered 2020 off FIVE straight non-playoff seasons, with 2019 being the worst of the bunch, as LA finished 72-90 (.444), a WHOPPING 35 games back of the Astros. In fact, that .444 'winning' percentage was looking pretty good to the 2020 Angels on Friday morning, as they sat 13-25 (.342), 11 games back of the division-leading A's. So where are we as of Sunday morning? The Angels take the field on Sunday looking for a FOUR-game sweep of the Astros. LA won Friday night 6-5 in 11 innings and then in Saturday's doubleheader, came from behind twice in their last at-bats to win 10-9 and 7-6 in those seven-inning contests. As Vince Lombardi once famously yelled, "What the hell is going on out there?" Taking the mound for Sunday's series finale will be Houston's Framber Valdez (3-2, 2.58 ERA) and LA's Jaime Barria (0-0, 2.63 ERA). Neither pitcher has much MLB experience but Valdez has looked solid this season, making seven appearances, including six starts. The lone relief appearance turned into a 6.1-inning effort at LA back on Aug 2, when he allowed just one unearned run in the game the Astros won 6-5 in 11 innings. He faced the Angels again on Aug 24 (in Houston) and allowed four ERs over seven innings but easily got the win in an 11-4 Houston victory. Barria made 26 starts for LA in 2018 and went 10-9 with a 3.412 ERA. However, he made a more modest 19 appearances in 2019 (just 13 starts) and was awful, going 4-10 with a 6.42 ER and 1.44 WHIP. He's made just three appearances in 2020, the first two in relief. His first start came on Aug 31 at home vs Seattle, when he took a no-decision (4.1 IP / 5 hits / 1 ER) in a 2-1 Mariners win. This play really isn't about the starters, although I do believe Valdez ( gives Houston the edge over Barria. Note that Valdez is 4-2 in his career against Los Angeles with a 3.20 ERA in eight appearances, including four starts (Astros are 3-1 and his ERA is 2.74). With FIVE games in four days with the A's looming Monday-Thursday, the LAST thing Houston needs is to get swept by the Angels. After THREE straight one-run losses, Houston gets off the schneid and wins here! Good luck...Larry |