08-05-20 |
Avalanche v. Stars +123 |
Top |
4-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
10 h 48 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dal Stars at 6:30 ET. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars will both move on in the NHL playoffs but both still have plenty of motivation in tonight's game. Dallas may be a little more desperate, after blowing a two-goal lead against the Vegas Golden Knights on Monday in a 5-3 loss in its first game of the format. Now the Stars now face a Colorado team coming off a last-second win over the St. Louis Blues on Sunday. A loss here by the Stars and they can earn no better than the third seed in the West. The Stars led 3-1 entering the third period vs Vegas but the Golden Knights scored four unanswered goals in the final period. As for the Avs, Nazem Kadri scored a buzzer-beating power-play goal to give Colorado the win over the defending Stanley Cup champion St. Louis Blues on Sunday night. Kadri's shot crossed the goal line with 0.1 seconds on the clock. The NHL reviewed the play for several minutes before calling it a good goal. Dallas needs to forget about the loss to Vegas and the fact that the Stars dominated the Avalanche during the regular season, should help. Dallas won all four matchups vs Colorado. Ben Bishop should be in net for Dallas on Wednesday, as he played in three of the four wins against the Avalanche during the regular season, stopping 118 of 123 shots (.959 SP). Philipp Grubauer had 31 saves against the Blues but he might not be in goal against Dallas. Pavel Francouz was playing well after Grubauer was injured during Colorado's outdoor game against the Los Angeles Kings on Feb 15. Head coach Bednar typically waits to announce his starting goaltender but either way, Dallas grabs the much-needed win. Good luck...Larry
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08-05-20 |
Thunder +6.5 v. Lakers |
Top |
105-86 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 36 m |
Show
|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the OKC Thunder at 6:30 ET. The Lakers clinched the top seed in the Western Conference with Monday's win over Utah and have little to play for these next five games (note: LA Lakers is in the playoffs for the first time since 2013). Meanwhile, the 41-25 OKC Thunder enter this game holding down the West's No. 6 seed, two games better than the Dallas Mavs (No. 7 seed). More importantly, the Thunder know that the fourth-seed is still in realistic reach, as the Rockets and Jazz are both 42-25, a half-game up on OKC. as well. Anthony Davis has averaged 38 points, 10 rebounds and four assists in wins over the Los Angeles Clippers and Jazz but he had just 14 points (on just seven FG attempts) in LA's 107-92 loss to Toronto. LeBron James (24.4-8.0-10.4 on the season) teams with A.D. but only reserve forward Kyle Kuzma (12.5) has averaged more than 10 points on the season. Dion Waiters, a recent signee, has averaged 10.0 PPG in LA's three games of the restart but he's shooting just 40.7%, including 21.4% on threes. OKC has no one in the class of A.D. and LBJ but while backup PG Dennis Schroder is missed (he left the NBA bubble for the birth of his second child Monday morning), the Thunder have been more than competitive with an NBA-best 41-25 ATS mark. Gilgeous-Alexander (19.4 & 6.0), Gallinari (19.2 & 5.4) and Paul (17.8-4.9-6.8) are all capable of "big nights" plus the center duo of Adams (11.0 & 9.4) and Noel (7.6 & 5.0) is at least the equal of LA's duo of McGee and Howard. The points are a bonus in this one, as I'm calling for an outright OKC win, just like what the Raptors did (see above). Good luck...Larry
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08-05-20 |
Islanders v. Panthers +112 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
112 |
5 h 24 m |
Show
|
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Fla Panthers at 12:08 ET. The NY Islanders had 80 points when the regular season was stopped because of COVID-19 and the Florida Panthers had 78. However, the Islanders won all three meetings between the two teams and have now taken the first two contests of this best-of-five qualifying round series. New York won 2-1 in the first game and then 4-2 yesterday afternoon, as goalie Semyon Varlamov has stood tall in goal by allowing just three goals on 56 shots (.946 SP). The loss leaves the Panthers on the verge of losing their first-round matchup for the FIFTH straight time. Does this mean the series is over? I'm not ready to concede that it does. The three regular season meetings saw the Islanders win two, one-goal contests (one in a shootout) plus a 3-1 victory with the third goal being an empty netter. Florida goalie Segei Bobrovsky has long been a quality netminder in this league, twice winning the Vezina Trophy. He was a HUGE reason the Blue Jackets upset the Presidents' Trophy-winning Tampa Bay Lightning in a four-game sweep during the 2018-19 postseason. He signed a seven-year, $70 million contract with the Florida Panthers back in July of 2019. The Panthers haven't defeated the Islanders since a 4-2 win back on Nov 10, 2018 but as Rod Stewart would say, "Tonight's the Night!" In this case, 'Today's the Day," as the game starts around 12 noon ET. Good luck...Larry
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08-04-20 |
White Sox v. Brewers -115 |
Top |
3-2 |
Loss |
-115 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
My 9* Pitching Mismatch is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. The White Sox were a dark horse pick by some in the AL Central. Chicago stumbled out of the gate 1-4 but after last night's 6-4 win at Milwaukee in the opener of a four-game, home-and-home set, the White Sox have now won FIVE in a row to reach 6-4. The 3-4 Brewers saw their weekend series with the Cards canceled due to positive COVID-19 tests of some St Louis players and last night was the team's first game since last Wednesday. Tonight's pitching matchup features Chicago's Lucas Giolito (0-1, 6.52 ERA) and Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff (1-1, 1.59 ERA). Giolito posted a horrific 6.13 ERA in 2018 but turned things around in a big way last season, going 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA (made the All Star team). Giolito recorded just 11 outs while allowing SEVEN runs in an Opening Day loss to visiting Minnesota but rebounded last Wednesday at Cleveland, scattering four hits, two walks and six strikeouts in six shutout innings (White Sox won, 4-0). This marks his first appearance vs Milwaukee. Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17 but one must acknowledge that the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019! Woodruff has been sharp in two 2020 starts, allowing two ERs in five innings of a 3-0 loss to the Cubs, before pitching 6.1 scoreless innings while allowing just one hit with 10 Ks in a 3-0 win vs Pittsburgh. He retired a career-best 17 in a row at one point against the Pirates. Like Giolito, Woodruff has never faced his opponent (White Sox) but considering the Brewers have won 19 of Woodruff's 24 starts since 2019, one HAS to take note. Meanwhile, Giolito is 1-6 with a 6.96 ERA in 10 interleague starts. It's Woodruff over Giolito tonight in a BIG way! Good luck...Larry
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08-04-20 |
Hurricanes v. Rangers +130 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Rangers at 8:08 ET. The Carolina Hurricanes have won the first two games of this best-of-five series with the NY Rangers and Tuesday night look to "close it out" at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Andrei Svechnikov's hat trick on Monday in Carolina's 4-1 victory was the first for the franchise in 144 all-time postseason games. "The games come fast and furious, but the guys love to play," said Carolina head coach Rod Brind'Amour. His counterpart, New York's David Quinn said of Svechnikov, "He's quickly emerging as one of the best players in this league." There was very little difference between Carolina's play (81 points) and New York's (79 points) in the regular season plus let me remind all right here that the Rangers won all FOUR meetings with Carolina (Rangers outscored the Hurricanes 17-9). The Rangers have a streak of 21 consecutive playoff series with at least one victory and my bet that steak WON'T end here! Good luck...Larry
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08-04-20 |
Mets v. Nationals -145 |
Top |
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 16 m |
Show
|
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET. The 4-7 NY Mets snapped a five-game slide with a 7-2 win last night in Atlanta, as Jacob deGrom pitched six innings (two ERs / 10 Ks) in earning his first win of 2020. New York visits the nation's capital tonight to open a two-game series with Nationals, who are 3-4 and have waited FIVE days to return to action. The Nationals haven't played since last Thursday, when they beat the Toronto Blue Jays 6-4. Washington's weekend series against the Miami Marlins was postponed after 18 uniformed members of the Marlins tested positive for the coronavirus. Tonight's pitching matchup is a battle of left-handers, as New York's Steven Matz (0-1, 3.18 ERA) squares off against Washington's Patrick Corbin (0-0, 1.42 ERA). Here's the 'skinny' on Matz. He was terrific at Citi Field last season, going 8-2 with a 2.31 ERA and .230 BAA but AWFUL away from home, going 3-8 with a 6.62 ERA and .293 BAA. He's also just 1-5 (3.41 ERA) in 12 career starts vs Washington, although the Mets are a more respectable 6-6 in those starts. Corbin didn't factor into the decision in his season debut July 26, when he allowed just one run in 6.1 innings in the Nationals' 3-2 loss to the Yankees. Corbin had a solid season for the Nats in 2019, going 14-7 with a 3.25 ERA in 33 starts (Washington was 21-12). He's just 2-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 14 career games (13 starts / teams are 5-8) against the Mets. Washington had an intrasquad scrimmage Saturday and more good news came in the fact that the Nats welcomed back Juan Soto. His positive coronavirus test was announced hours before the Opening Day game against the New York Yankees on July 23. Soto said he never displayed any symptoms and believed his result may have been a false positive. He was allowed to return after testing negative twice last week, following clearance from the D.C. Department of Health. Soto (21-years-old) batted .282 in the regular season in 2019, adding 34 HRs and 110 RBI. He then hit five HRs with 14 RBI in the playoffs, while helping the Nationals to their first championship in franchise history. His return is a BIG deal, with Anthony Rendon leaving in FA for the Angels. Corbin gives Washington a solid effort, while Matz once again struggles away from home. New York's winning streak ends at ONE! Good luck...Larry
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08-04-20 |
Red Sox v. Rays -139 |
Top |
1-5 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 21 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 6:40 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox are still looking to establish their identity as they prepare to open a two-game series Tuesday at St Petersburg, Fl. Boston began the 2020 by losing two of three at Fenway to the Orioles (54-108) and then split a four-games series with the Mets, followed by losing all three at Yankee Stadium. Boston heads to South Florida just 3-7, already leaving them 5 1/2 games back of the MLB-best 8-1 Yankees. The Rays opened 4-1 but have promptly lost FIVE in a row, including getting swept in a three-game series at the Baltimore Orioles this past weekend (see above). Boston's Nathan Eovaldi (1-0, 2.45 ERA) is set to take the mound opposite Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton (0-1, 8.00 ERA). Boston starters own a league-worst 6.69 ERA but Eovaldi has been the lone bright spot, as the Red Sox have won both of his 2020 starts. Morton turned his career around after signing with Houston in 2017, going 29-10 in 2017-18. That got him a two-year, $30 million deal with Tampa Bay and Morton went 16-6, 3.05 ERA in 2019 for the Rays. He made his second All Star team last year plus set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings (194.2) and in strikeouts (240). He also led all major league pitchers in HRs/9 innings pitched, at 0.694.[29]. However, Morton allowed six ERs (4 IP) in his first start of 2020 but was better in his second, allowing two ERs over five innings. Eovaldi owns a 2-4 record with a 5.45 ERA in eight career appearances (six starts / teams are 2-4 ) against the Rays, while Morton is 5-1 (4.40 ERA) in 11 career starts vs Boston (teams are 8-3). I noted Boston's overall pitching woes at the top but that's hardly Boston's only issue! The Red Sox own a .210 team BA with new additions Manuel Margot (3-for-30), Hunter Renfroe (6-for-33) and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (6-for-30) among those really struggling. Morton gets his first win of 2020 in this one. Good luck...Larry
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08-04-20 |
Celtics -3.5 v. Heat |
Top |
106-112 |
Loss |
-109 |
10 h 58 m |
Show
|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are both 1-1 in the NBA's restart, leaving the 44-22 Celtics 2 1/2 games up on the 42-25 Heat with only SIX games left on the schedule as the teams battle for the East's No. 3 seed. Boston last played Sunday, holding off Portland 128-124, in a game they once led by 24 points! Miami played yesterday afternoon and lost a tough one, 107-103 to Toronto. Miami lost the game from the three-point line, shooting just 14 of 45 (31.1%), while allowing Toronto to connect on 16 of 32 (50.0%). Boston's best player, Jayson Tatum, was a brutal 2-of-18 from the floor in Boston's seven-point loss to Milwaukee last Friday but he rebounded to score 34 points plus add a career-high eight assists in the Sunday win over Portland. The third overall pick in the 2017 NBA Draft has increased his scoring average in each of his three seasons; from 13.9 to 15.7 to 23.4. PG Kemba Walker is on a minutes-restriction as he fights his way back from a knee injury but had 16 points (19 minutes) in the loss to Milwaukee, then added 14 points in 22 minutes against Portland. Jaylen Brown added 30 points against the Blazers (had 22 vs the Bucks) and Gordon Hayward added 22. The Celtics' bench is led by guard Marcus Smart, who is one of the best defenders in the league and also averages 13.5 PPG. Backup Center Enes Kanter averages 8.1 points and 7.6 rebounds. The Heat are led by the all-around talent of Jimmy Butler (20.2-6.6-6.1) but also have SEVEN more players scoring in double digits. That group is led by Bam Adebayo (16.2-10.4-5.1), an All-Star for the Heat this year, plus veteran PG Goran Dragic (16.2 PPG & 5.1 APG). Adebayo had a quiet game, producing 10 points and eight rebounds vs Toronto, while Dragic had 25 points, five rebounds and five assists. It should be noted that Miami was 24-9 through the end of December but since the calendar moved to 2020, has gone a pedestrian 18-16. I will also bring up the fact that the Heat are 5-6 this season without rest but 37-19 with at least one day between games. The Celtics are 2-0 against the Heat this season, winning 112-93 on Dec 4 and 109-101 on Jan 28. Boston takes a FIVE-game regular-season winning streak against Miami into this contest and extends it to SIX straight, giving them a 3 1/2 game lead for that No. 3 seed with just FIVE games remaining. Good luck...Larry
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08-03-20 |
Blackhawks v. Oilers -130 |
Top |
3-6 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 45 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Edm Oilers at 10:38 ET. Chicago entered the postseason as the 12th and final Western Conference playoff team after a 32-30-8 regular-season record, finishing NINE points behind fifth-seeded Edmonton. The Oilers have something of a unique home-ice advantage since all Western Conference playoff games (and the Stanley Cup Final) are being played in Edmonton but then again, there are NO fans plus the Oilers are staying within the same "bubble" environment as every other team throughout the postseason. So much for any home-ice edge in Game 1 of this best-of-five series! The Blackhawks routed the Oilers 6-4 and I say routed because the Oilers scored twice in the final four minutes to make the score respectable. In between those last four minutes and Connor McDavid's opening score at 2:34 of the first period, Chicago DOMINATED play. The Blackhawks responded to McDavid's goal by building a 4-1 lead by the end of the opening period and led 6-2 entering the final period. Chicago outshot Edmonton 42-29 for the game and outscored the Oilers 3-0 in even-strength play. Dominik Kubalik paced the Chicago offense with two goals and three assists, becoming the first player in NHL history to register five points in his first career postseason game. Corey Crawford saved 25 of 29 shots in Game 1 and is expected to again serve as the Blackhawks' starting goalie on Tuesday. Edmonton started Mike Smith in goal and he allowed five goals on 23 shots before being pulled from the game. Mikko Koskinen stopped 18 of 19 shots in relief of Smith, allowing only a power-play goal from Kubalik. Game 1 marked the first playoff appearance of Koskinen's NHL career and while Edmonton's defensive breakdowns put Smith in some tough spots, it seems probable that the Oilers will go with Mikko Koskinen in net for Game 2. It's a "MUST-WIN" for Edmonton and while we all know must-win doesn't guarantee "will win," the Oilers ARE the better team, plus playing on home-ice CAN'T hurt. Bounce-back time here for Edmonton! Good luck...Larry
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08-03-20 |
Dodgers -134 v. Padres |
Top |
4-5 |
Loss |
-134 |
15 h 50 m |
Show
|
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL West) is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET. The Dodgers opened the 2020 season as the overwhelming favorite to win their EIGHTH consecutive NL West title. As for the Padres, after going 70-92 in 2019 (36 games back of LA), they were hoping that a shortened 60-game season would allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. The two NL West foes open a three-games series tonight at Petco Park, with LA at 7-3 and the SD at 6-4 (surprising Colorado is 6-2!). The Dodgers come in as winners of FIVE of their last six, while the Padres, after a 6-2 start, have lost two in a row. Getting the ball tonight for LA is Walker Buehler (0-0, 4.91 ERA), while SD counters with Chris Paddack (1-0, 1.64 ERA). Buehler was 14-4 last season with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP in 30 starts. His .778 winning percentage led the National League. Buehler's only start of the current season came on July 28, when he allowed three hits and two ERs in only 3.2 innings at Houston (LA would win, 5-2). Paddack was 9-7 with a 3.33 ERA in 26 starts as a rookie in 2019. He was restricted to 140.2 innings last year (just three years removed from Tommy John surgery), when he had 153 strikeouts against 31 walks for a 0.98 WHIP. This will be Paddack's third start, after allowing just two ERs over 11 innings in his first two (1.64 ERA / 1.00 WHIP / 10-1 KW ratio). Two outstanding young pitchers here but Buehler is 4-0 with an 0.64 ERA in four career starts vs the Padres (he has 42-5 KW ratio five walks with the Padres hitting .141 with a .192 on-base percentage against Buehler). Meanwhile, Paddack is 0-1 with a 5.65 ERA in three starts vs the Dodgers (SD is 1-2). The Dodgers were 13-6 against the Padres in 2019, including a 7-2 record at Petco Park. Dodgers get the win here. Good luck...Larry
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08-03-20 |
Indians v. Reds -125 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 15 m |
Show
|
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins. The Indians opened the current season 4-2 at home and then took the first contest of a four-game series at Minnesota on Thursday, moving to 5-2. However, the Indians then lost the last three games of their series at Minnesota, getting outscored 10-2. Cleveland now opens a four-game, home-and-home series with Cincinnati Reds, with the first two contests being played in Cincinnati. The Reds entered the current season off SIX consecutive losing seasons, averaging a modest 69.7 wins per season. However, Cincinnati (at +230) was listed as co-favorites with the Cubs in the NL Central. The team's starting pitching rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani looked VERY good on paper, plus the addition of Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos was great news to Joey Votto and the Reds' offense (NL using the DH was also great news). However, the Reds opened 1-4 and were just 2-5 before winning both ends of Sunday's seven-inning doubleheader at Detroit. Zach Plesac (0-0, 0.00 ERA) gets the start for Cleveland, while Cincinnati will counter with Sonny Gray (2-0, 0.71 ERA). Plesac made 21 starts as a rookie, going 8-6 with a 3.81 ERA (Indians went 13-8 in his starts). He had a strong season debut (last Wednesday), allowing three hits with 11 Ks without a walk over eight scoreless innings, although the Indians fell 4-0 to the Chicago White Sox when they scored four runs in the top of the 9th. Plesac has faced the Reds just once, allowing four runs on five hits in 5.1 innings of that 7-2 loss in Cleveland last season Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yanks going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray has allowed just ONE earned run, four hits and three walks while striking out 20 over 12.2 innings in beating Detroit and the Chicago Cubs to open 2020. Gray is a modest 4-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Indians (teams are 5-5). Recent history favors the Indians, as they've beaten the Reds in SIX straight, as well as winning 10 of their last 11 in Cincinnati. What's more, the Indians have averaged 7.1 RPG and hit 23 HRs over that 11-game span. However, that was THEN and this is NOW! Cleveland arrives in Cincinnati having lost FOUR of five, while scoring a grand total of just FOUR runs! Cleveland is batting only .147 as a team in that five-game span, going 2-17 (.105) with RISP. The Cleveland bats now face Sonny Gray (see above), who after allowing just one hit and striking out 11 batters in last Wednesday's win over the Cubs, has made 35 straight starts while allowing six or fewer hits! Good luck...Larry
|
08-02-20 |
Blazers v. Celtics -4 |
Top |
124-128 |
Push |
0 |
9 h 25 m |
Show
|
My 10* NBA Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 3:35 ET. The Portland Trail Blazers edged the Memphis Grizzlies Friday night 140-135 in OT. The win ups Portland's record to 30-37 and leaves them 2 1/2 games behind the 32-34 Grizzlies for the last available playoff spot in the Western Conference. Portland's chase of Memphis resumes on Sunday, when the Blazers face the 43-22 Boston Celtics. The Celtics own the third-best record in the East but after losing Friday 119-112 to Milwaukee, aren't chasing anyone. With just seven games remaining, Boston trails Milwaukee by 10 1/2 games and Toronto by 6 1/2 games in the East. The Celtics' concern now is staying ahead of the 42-24 Miami Heat, who they lead by just 1 1/2 games for the third-seed. Portland expects its guard duo of Lillard and McCollum to lead the way each game and McColum scored 33 points with Lillard adding 29 and nine assists in the OT win over The Grizz. The really good news was the return to play of 7-foot center Jusuf Nurkic, who played his first official game since March 25, 2019. He recorded 18 points, nine rebounds, a career-high-tying six blocks and five assists in 33 minutes as a starter. Starting PF Zach Collins also returned after being out since late October due to an injured left shoulder, adding nine rebounds, seven points and three assists in 37 minutes. As for the Celtics, they fell behind 17-2 to the Bucks on Friday in a 119-122 loss. However, Boston closed the gap to just six at the half and entered the 4th quarter tied. The game was still tied with under 1 1/2 minutes left (107-all), but Milwaukee outscored Boston 12-5 to get the win and cover. All this, with Boston's best player, Jayson Tatum (23.3 & 7.1), shooting just 2-of-18 from the floor (five points). All Star PG Kemba Walker had been out due to an injury to his left knee but scored 16 points in 19 minutes. Head coach Brad Stevens said Walker will still be on a minutes restriction against Portland but Boston will take another 16 points from Walker, here. Brown (22 & 4) and Hayward (17-9-6) both had solid games plus Boston guards Smart (23) and Wannamaker (14) each had strong games off the bench. All games in the Orlando 'bubble' are neutral-site contests but it should be helpful to look at teams' road record before the stoppage of play. Portland was just 11023, while Boston was solid 20-12. Boston's a significantly better team and don't expect Tatum to go 2-of-18 again, or for Portland to shoot 53.8% as a team (Blazers are shooting 64.2% on the season). Lay the points with Boston. Good luck...Larry
|
08-01-20 |
Lakers v. Raptors +4 |
Top |
92-107 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 13 m |
Show
|
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tor Raptors at 8:30. LBJ noted that finding a rhythm on offense might take time for the Los Angeles Lakers. One could say that was the case for the Lakers on Thursday, as they escaped with a 103-101 win over the Clippers. The Lakers shot only 39.0% from the floor, including 11-36 (30.6%) on threes. A.D. led the way with 34 points (eight rebounds), while LBJ (16-11-7) and Kuzma (16) were the only other Lakers in double digits. The win gives the Lakers a 50-14 record, while increasing their edge in the Western Conference standings to 6 1/2 games over the Clippers with only SEVEN seven contests remaining in the abbreviated regular season. Toronto is the defending champions and owned the league's third best record at 46-18, when play was halted in March. However, the Raptors are a distant second in the Eastern Conference behind the 54-12 Milwaukee Bucks. This contest marks Toronto's first game of the restart. James scored the winning basket inside with 12.8 seconds left, converting after getting the rebound of his own missed shot. He also forced Paul George to miss a game-winning three-point attempt at the final horn. "I love having the ball in my hands late in the game, tie game, being down, being up," said James. However, he struggled on offense, shooting only 6-for-19 and committing five turnovers. LA is without starting PG Bradley, who opted out of the restart. His perimeter defense will be missed. The Lakers have gotten decent production from their two-headed center duo, as starter McGee averaged 6.8 & 5.8 and Howard adds 7.4 & 7.3. The Raptors completed the last of three scrimmages last Tuesday, taking a 117-106 loss against the Phoenix Suns. Pascal Siakam led the Raptors with 17 points while Norman Powell added 14. Fred VanVleet finished with 13, and Kyle Lowry had 11 points and seven assists. Of course, the defending champs no longer have Kawhi (also, Danny Green signed with the Lakers as a FA) but the roster is loaded with quality players. More importantly, all are healthy and available for the restart. Up front it's PF Siakam (23.6 & 7.5), SF Anunoby (11.4) plus a center combo of Ibaka (16.0 & 8.3) and Gasol (7.6 & 6.3). Toronto's guard trio of Lowry (19.7-4.8-7.7), VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) and Powell (16.4) match up favorably against ANY backcourt in the league. The Lakers are off an emotional win over the Clippers and I see no reason for them to be laying points here vs the Raptors, who have beaten the Lakers 10 straight times! The Lakers last defeated Toronto back on Nov 30, 2014. Take the points! Good luck...Larry
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08-01-20 |
Indians v. Twins -117 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 50 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians entered the 2019 season having won THREE straight AL Central titles but their 93 wins left them EIGHT games back of the 101-61 Minnesota Twins (first 100-win season for the Twins since 1965). The two AL Central rivals continue their four-game series in Minnesota on Saturday, after the Indians won 2-0 on Thursday, before the Twins rebounded with a 4-1 win last night. The 5-3 Indians will send Carlos Carrasco (1-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound, while the 5-2 Twins counter with Kenta Maeda (1-0, 3.60 ERA). Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 this past Sunday, as Carrasco won his first start in 423 days! Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but days later was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, the 18-game winner in 2017 looked like his old dominant self in Sunday's victory. He allowed two runs and five hits before he was lifted after allowing a leadoff double in the seventh. Carrasco retired the first 10 Royals he faced and finished with 10m Ks! Maeda has something to prove in 2020 as well, although it's hard to match the dramatic return of Carrasco. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief during last year's run to the World Series. It should be noted that only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. He made a solid impression in his Twins debut last Sunday at Chicago, when he struck out six White Sox hitters and allowed two runs in five innings during a 14-2 victory. Carrasco's comeback has everyone rooting for him but I'm not one of them in tonight's contest. Shutting down the Royals, one of four MLB teams to lose 100-plus games in 2019 is one thing, shutting down the Twins is another. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939) in 2019, while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. Carrasco is 7-10 with a 4.10 ERA in 26 career appearances (21 starts / team is 8-13) against Minnesota, including 4-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 13 appearances and 10 starts at Target Field. Maeda faces the Indians for the first time in his career and makes his Target Field debut on Saturday night. I'll root for Carrasco some OTHER time! Good luck...Larry
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07-31-20 |
Padres v. Rockies -106 |
Top |
8-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
15 h 7 m |
Show
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My 10* Game of the Month is on the Col Rockies at 8:10 ET. The Colorado Rockies went 71-91 in 2019, leaving them a whopping 35 games back of the NL West champion LA Dodgers. One game worse than the Rockies were the 70-92 San Diego Padres. However, as the Rockies welcome the Padres to Coors Field for the team's 2020 home opener, Colorado sits atop the NL West at 4-1, while the Padres check in at 5-2, tied with the Dodgers. Colorado had an off day Thursday, after going 4-1 at Texas and Oakland (more later). The Padres opened 2020 with a four-game home series with Arizona, taking THREE of four. The Padres beat the Giants in San Francisco 12-7 (10 innings) last night, as they took two of three games. San Diego has now won its first two series of the season for the first time since 2007. Taking the mound in the opener of this three-game series will be San Diego's Garrett Richards (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Colorado's Jon Gray (0-0, 1.93 ERA). Richards spent his first eight seasons with the Los Angeles Angels (45-39 with a 3.54 ERA over 170 appearances, including 115 starts), before San Diego signed him to a two-year deal before the 2019 season. It's more than fair to call the move a risk for the Padres, as Richards' 2018 season was cut short due to Tommy John surgery. In fact, He didn't pitch until late in 2019, making three starts (0-1 with a ERA / team was 1-2). Richards pitched five shutout innings, allowing just one hit and three walks with six strikeouts in San Diego's 4-3 loss to Arizona last Sunday. "It's just fun,'' Richards told FS San Diego. "I’m having fun playing baseball again. It’s not rehab anymore. It feels good to be back out there and pitching pain-free.” Richards will be facing Colorado for the first time in his career. In contrast, Gray is VERY familiar with the Padres, as he's 10-4 with a 2.97 ERA. He has 139 strikeouts in 115.1 innings covering 20 games (19 starts). Unlike most Colorado pitchers, Gray is one of the few who has thrived in the thin air of Coors Field. He was 6-2, with a 3.46 ERA in 13 games (12 starts / Rockies went 8-4) last season. Colorado has been the worst road team in MLB since 2010 but dominated Texas and Oakland with a National League-best 1.84 ERA (Note: Colorado's team ERA was an NL-worst 5.56 mark last season, as only Baltimore (5.59) had a higher ERA in all of MLB. Yes, there won't be any fans in the stands for Colorado's home opener BUT the Rockies have won FOUR consecutive season series vs the Padres, including 24-13 at Coors Field during that span. Colorado has won FOUR straight since losing its season-opener 1-0 at Texas, outscoring opponents 21-9. Make it FIVE straight wins, tonight! Good luck...Larry
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07-31-20 |
Kings -3 v. Spurs |
Top |
120-129 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 7 m |
Show
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My 10* NBA Restart Opener is on the Sac Kings at 8:00 ET. The Sacramento Kings and the San Antonio Spurs are two of the 22 teams playing in the Orlando 'bubble.' Just nine teams compete in the Eastern Conference, while tonight's participants are among 13 Western Conference teams still competing. The Kings are 3 1/2 games behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the final Western Conference spot while the Spurs are four out with just eight games to play. Catching the Grizzlies (currently the 8th-seed) is a stretch but both teams still have a chance to stay with four games of the 8th-seed, which could get them into a two-game "play-in" situation. San Antonio's task was harder with the news of power forward LaMarcus Aldridge being lost to season-ending shoulder surgery. The Spurs have made the playoffs in 22 consecutive seasons but will need a strong finishing kick to keep that streak alive. Meanwhile, the Kings are looking to avoid missing the playoffs for the 14th straight season and are currently in a virtual tie with the Portland Trail Blazers for the 9th-seed, a half-game up on the Pelicans and Spurs. Sacramento PF Marvin Bagley III (foot) will miss the rest of the season but realistically, it's NOT a big deal. He averages 14.2 & 7.5 but has played in only 13 of the Kings' 64 games. More notably. PG De'Aaron Fox (20.4 & 6.8 APG) is ready to play after tweaking his left ankle earlier this month plus SF Harrison Barnes (14.7 & 4.8 ) recently rejoined the club after testing positive for COVID-19. Luke Walton has a VERY deep team and recently said that the Kings have fared better this season when Bogdan Bogdanovic (14.5) starts at SG, while Buddy Hield (19.8-4.8-3.1) comes off the bench. He's indicated that will again be the pecking order against San Antonio. SG Bazemore was a late-January pickup and in 21 games has averaged 10.3 PPG. Frontcourt depth comes in center Holmes (12.8 & 8.3) and PF Bjelica (11.9 & 6.4). Popovich has indicated that with Aldridge out, veteran guard DeMar DeRozan (22.2-5.6-5.6) could see time at power forward. He would join center Jakob Poeltl (5.3 & 5.3) and the lineup arrangement would include PGs Dejounte Murray (10.7) and Derrick White (10.4) as starters along with SG Bryn Forbes (11.2). SF Gay (10. & 5.4) will be a valuable contributor but losing center Trey Lyles (6.4 & 5.7), who started 53 of 63 games, to an appendectomy is the kind of under the radar injury that will be a bigger than expected loss. This is NOT "your father's Spurs" and Coach Pop is staring right at his first-ever losing season as a head coach. The Kings have won FOUR of their last five meetings with the Spurs and the reason is, they are the BETTER TEAM. Lay the 'short' price! Good luck...Larry
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07-30-20 |
Rays v. Braves -134 |
Top |
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 34 m |
Show
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My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Braves at 7:10 ET. Tampa Bay took both games against the Braves at Tropicana Field (Mon & Tue) but as the teams switched venues to SunTrust Park on Wednesday, the Braves beat the Rays 7-4. Atlanta's All-Star 1B Freddie Freeman, who entered Wednesday’s home opener 2-for-14 on the season, went 4-for-5 with a double, HR, and three RBI. The loss dropped the Rays to 4-2, while the Braves evened their record at 3-3 with the win. The teams play the final contest of this four-game set on Thursday, as Ryan Yarbrough (0-0, 0.00 ERA) takes the mound for Tampa Bay and Max Fried (0-0, 3.60 ERA) gets the ball for Atlanta. Yarbrough made 28 appearances last season (14 starts), going 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA. He threw 5.1 scoreless innings last Saturday against Toronto, as the Rays won 4-1 (Yarbrough settled for a no-decision). He's now made NINE consecutive stars without earning a win (Rays are 5-4 in those games). Fried went 17-6 in 2019 (first season as a full-time starter), as he finished second in the NL with 17 wins. His first outing of 2016 was last Saturday at the Mets, when he surrendered two runs on two hits with two walks and five strikeouts in five innings (note: he didn't surrender a hit until the fifth inning and the Braves won, 5-3). Most feel as if the Rays have one of MLB's best bullpens and the team's relievers had pitched to a 2.70 ERA across 26.2 innings in the first five games of 2020, but four Tampa relievers allowed five runs (four earned) on six hits in just three innings last night.Fried finished 9-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 15 home starts in 2019 (Braves were 11-4), and after the All-Star break pitched to a 3.63 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while going 8-2 across 13 appearances (12 starts / Braves were 10-2). Fried gives Atlanta the edge here at home, where the Braves went 50-31 in 2019. Good luck...Larry
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07-29-20 |
Cubs v. Reds -107 |
Top |
7-12 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 50 m |
Show
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My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The Cubs were listed as favorites to win the NL Central (+230) with their longtime rivals the Cards at (+240). However, the Reds (at +230) were listed as co-favorites with the Cubs, despite the fact that Cincinnati last made the postseason back in 2013, having averaged a paltry 69.7 wins per season over that six-year playoff drought. Both teams won their respective season openers but while Chicago sits at 4-1 (in a four-way tie for MLB's best record with Cleveland, San Diego and Tampa Bay), Cincinnati enters tonight's contest on a FOUR-game slide. The Cubs have taken the first two contests of this four-games series, 8-7 (Mon) and 8-5 (Tue). This contest will be the third of a four-game set, featuring Kyle Hendricks (1-0, 0.00 ERA) and Sonny Gray (1-0, 1.50 ERA) squaring off on the mound. Hendricks has not been nearly the pitcher the last three years that he was in 2016, when he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13), won 16 games and started Game 7 of the World Series. He's won a modest 32 games from 2017-19, including 11 last season when he lost 10 games and posted a 3.46 ERA. However, Hendricks sparkled in his 2020 debut, allowing three hits and striking out nine without a walk during a complete-game effort in the Cubs' 3-0 victory over Milwaukee on Friday. Hendricks became the first Cubs pitcher to throw a nine-inning shutout on Opening Day since the 'legendary' Bill Bonham accomplished that feat back in 1974. Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yanks (going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray allowed one run on three hits with nine strikeouts over six innings in Cincy's Opening Day 7-1 win over the Tigers. Hendricks had plenty of trouble with Cincinnati last season, going 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA in four starts (Cubs were 1-3), while Gray was 3-1 with a 2.70 ERA against Chicago over five starts (Reds were 4-1) last year with 37 strikeouts in 30 innings! Reds snap their four-game slide, tonight! Good luck...Larry
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07-29-20 |
Diamondbacks v. Rangers -125 |
Top |
4-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
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My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Tex Rangers at 4:05 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks went 85-77 last season but that left them 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as four games out of the NL's last wild card spot. Arizona is not expected to end LA's 'hold' on the NL West (Dodgers have won seven straight division titles) but with MLB expanding its postseason field from 10 to 16 teams, the D'backs have to feel like a playoff berth is MORE than realistic. The D'backs opened the season by losing THREE of four at San Diego but after a 4-1 win last night in Texas, have a chance to wrap up their season-opening six-game road trip with a .500 record. The D-backs scored three unearned runs with two outs in the first inning and went on to beat the Rangers 4-1 on Tuesday. Texas opened its season with a 1-0 win over Colorado but has since lost THREE in a row. The offensively-challenged Ranger managed only three hits Tuesday and have scored just SIX runs in their first four contests. Texas is batting just .174 as a team, including 5-22 (.227) with RISP while leaving 25 runners on base. Veteran left-hander Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 4.76 ERA) gets the ball in the series finale for the Diamondbacks and the Rangers will counter with righty Lance Lynn (1-0, 0.00 ERA). Bumgarner went 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2019 for the Giants, before signing a five-year, $85 million free agent contract with the Diamondbacks in December. He hardly needs an introduction, as he opened the 2020 season with a 119-92 record (3.13 ERA) in 11 seasons (286 starts) with the Giants. He also owns three World Series rings (2010, 2012 & 2014), along with a World Series MVP in 2014 (two wins and one save / 0.43 ERA, 0.48 WHIP and 17-1 KW ratio). Bumgarner completed five scoreless innings in his club debut Friday before surrendering three runs and retiring just two batters in the sixth to take the loss. Lance Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. He'll be counted on heavily again in 2020's 60-game season, as after Mike Minor (14-10, 3.59 ERA), no other Texas pitcher won more than SEVEN games. Lynn made his first-ever Opening Day start last Friday and was outstanding. He held Colorado to two hits over six scoreless innings with nine Ks (Rangers won 1-0). Lynn went 10-1 at home last season and is 6-1 (3.38 ERA) in 11 career starts vs the D'backs (teams are 8-3). I had Lynn last Friday and will back him again, here. Bumgarner pitched well in his first start but then imploded (see above). I don't expect much from Texas in 2020 but the team's bats are overdue to break out. This is the first time in club history that the Rangers have scored two runs or fewer in each of the first four games of the season. That changes RIGHT HERE! Good luck...Larry
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07-28-20 |
Cardinals +122 v. Twins |
Top |
3-6 |
Loss |
-100 |
14 h 53 m |
Show
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My 10* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (IL) is on the StL Cardinals at 8:10 ET. The NL Central race figures to be a 'sprint to the finish line' between the Brewers, Cards, Cubs and Reds in this 60-game season. St Louis finished either 1st or 2nd in the division over an eight-year span from 2009-16, before falling to back-to-back 3rd-place finishes in 2017 and '18. The Cards rebounded in 2019 to capture the NL Central (91-71) and reached the NLCS where they were swept by the red-hot Nationals. Minnesota did not reach the postseason over a six-year span (2011-16), going a woeful 59-103 in 2016. However, the Twins were a wild card team in 2017 (85-77). Minnesota slumped to 78-84 in 2018 but in 2019 went 101-61, earning the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!). Both teams have started 2-1 in 2020 and the Cards open a seven-game road trip Tuesday night in Minnesota The contest will serve as the Twins' home opener, as Minnesota begins an eight-game homestand. The Twins put up 27 runs in taking two of their first three games, while the Cards beat the pathetic Pirates Friday and Saturday, but missed out on a chance to sweep Pittsburgh Pirates with a 5-1 loss on Sunday. Tuesday's pitching matchup features Carlos Martinez (4-2, 3.17 ERA in 2019) and Homer Bailey (13-9, 4.57 in 2019 with KC & Oak). Martinez posted a 42-27 record with a 3.24 ERA in 94 games (92 starts) from 2015 to 2017 but dealt with shoulder discomfort in 2018 (33 appearances but just 18 starts in going 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA). He last started a game on July 30, 2018, before going on the injured list due to right shoulder discomfort. He spent the rest of the 2018 season, as well as the entire 2019 campaign, in the bullpen to limit the wear and tear on the shoulder. He made 48 appearances in 2019 (zero starts) with 24 saves. Bailey made 31 starts while splitting the season between Kansas City and Oakland in 2019, marking his most starts since making 32 for the Cincinnati Reds in 2013. His 2019 numbers were not all that impressive but when one takes into consideration that he was coming off a 1-14 record with a 6.09 ERA in 2018 with Cincinnati, his 2019 season could sure be seen as a "bounce-back" season, Clearly, the Twins viewed it as such, signing him to a one-year, $7 million deal in the offseason. Minnesota has a 'scary-good' lineup but by all reports, Martinez earned a spot in the rotation with a strong showing in summer camp. He had a procedure done on his right shoulder after the 2019 season and then went on an offseason conditioning regimen focused on regaining a starting role. He was rewarded with the No. 5 spot in the rotation after allowing two hits and one run in four innings in a 6-3 exhibition victory over Kansas City last Wednesday. As for Bailey, a stint in the AL was good to him but a closer look at his 2019 season reveals that he posted a 5.55 ERA in five starts against NL opponents in 2019, including getting ripped for five runs on four hits (including two HRs) over just 1.2 innings at St. Louis on May 22. That effort should NOT come as a surprise, as the Cards have been "too much to handle" for Bailey in his career, as he's gone 6-16 with a 5.80 ERA over 28 lifetime starts against St Louis (team record is even worse, at 6-22). HUGE "pitching edge" here for the Cards. Good luck...Larry
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07-27-20 |
Blue Jays v. Nationals -125 |
Top |
4-1 |
Loss |
-125 |
16 h 47 m |
Show
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My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Was Nationals at 6:05 ET. The Washington Nationals won the franchise's first-ever World Series in 2019 but their title defense is off to a slow start after dropping two of three to American League favorites the New York Yankees. Washington's Achilles heel last season was the bullpen and the relief corps let the team down in the series finale on Sunday, when starter Patrick Corbin exited with a 2-1 lead after 6.1 innings, only to watch Will Harris and Sean Doolittle each allow a run en route to a 3-2 loss. The Nationals lost Juan Soto (.282 / 34 HRs / 110 RBI) before the season opened (positive COVID-19 test) but more importantly, they miss Anthony Rendon (.319 / 34 HRs / 126 RBI) in the middle of the lineup after the MVP candidate left for the LA Angels via free agency. The Nationals host the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday in the opener of four straight in Washington, with the Blue Jays serving as the home team in the last two contests. The Blue Jays can't play their home games in Canada and are currently waiting as Buffalo's Sahlen Field is getting MLB-ready. The team announced on Sunday that the Blue Jays' first game in Buffalo won't be until August 11 against Miami. Toronto opened the season by beating the TB Rays 6-4 on Friday but followed with back-to-back losses Saturday and Sunday (Rays won each game in their last at-bat). Monday's pitching matchup features Toronto's Trent Thornton (6-9, 4.84 ERA in 2019) and Washington's Anibal Sanchez (11-8, 3.85 in 2019). Thornton was a rookie last season and made 32 appearances, including 29 starts. He was held to an innings limit late in the season but should be a regular starter in this year's 60-game season. Sanchez is making his first appearance since the Word Series and is looking to continue a late-career resurgence that saw him combine for a 3.39 ERA over 55 games in 2018 and 2019. One always has to be somewhat worried about Washington's bullpen but as noted above, Toronto's bullpen allowed Tampa Bay to win Saturday and Sunday in its last at-bat. Toronto's bullpen allowed eight ERs over 8.2 innings (8.31 ERA) over the weekend vs the Rays. Closer Ken Giles faltered after getting two outs in the ninth on Sunday (then allowed two runs, sending the game to extra-innings) and in the process, injured his elbow. He will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of his injury. I'm backing the rejuvenated vet Sanchez in this one, as the Nats win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry
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07-26-20 |
Angels v. A's +108 |
Top |
4-6 |
Win
|
108 |
10 h 47 m |
Show
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My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET. The Houston Astros are expected to win the AL West but the Angels and A's may have "other ideas." Both teams believe that they can make a run at Houston and with the expanded playoffs, BOTH teams are legitimate wild card contenders. Oakland won Friday night's opener 7-3 in dramatic fashion, as Olson hit a game-winning grand slam in the 10th inning. The Angels bounced back Saturday, winning 4-1 win behind a solid start from newcomer Dylan Bundy (6.1 IP / 3 hits / 1 ER / 7-0 KW ratio). The rubber match of the series is Sunday, as Shohei Ohtani (DNP in 2019) takes on Mike Fiers (15-4, 3.90 ERA in 2019). Ohtani, the two-way phenom from Japan, was 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA in 10 starts for the Angels in 2018 before serving exclusively as a designated hitter (and pinch hitter) last year following Tommy John surgery. He served as the Angels' DH on Friday night (1-for-5). It's expected that he will pitch once a week - ideally each Sunday - and will not be in the lineup the days before or after each outing (he sat out Saturday). Ohtani will be returning to the scene of his first career start on April 1, 2018, when he defeated the Athletics with six solid innings. He then struck out a career-high 12 Oakland hitters in a rematch one week later at home (2-0, 2.08 ERA). Fiers set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 43 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 31-12 in those contests! Oakland lost Saturday to LA but takes the field having won EIGHT of its last 10 home games vs the Angels. That should NOT be a surprise, as while the A's have gone 102-60 at home in 2018 and 2019, the Angels are 72-90 away from Anaheim in that span. This marks Ohtani's first start since September of 2018, while Fiers is 13-3 in his career at Oakland Coliseum and went 3-0 (3.04 ERA) in four starts against the Angels in 2019 (Oakland won all four games). Oakland, behind Fiers, is the play. Good luck...Larry
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07-26-20 |
Rockies v. Rangers OVER 8.5 |
Top |
5-2 |
Loss |
-114 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
My MLB 10* Total of the Week is on Col/Tex Over at 2:35 ET. The official opening of Globe Life Field was scheduled for March 31 against the LA Angels. However, COVID-19 had other plans. The Texas Rangers played their first regular-season game at their new ballpark in Arlington (cost of $1.2 billion) against the Colorado Rockies on Friday, winning 1-0. The teams played again on Saturday, with the Rockies winning 3-2. The rubber match of the three-game series is set for Sunday afternoon and after two low-scoring affairs, I'm Goin' Over the total. Taking the mound will be Colorado's Kyle Freeland (3-11, 6.73 ERA in 2019) and Texas' Corey Kluber (2-3, 5.80 in 2019 for Cleveland). Both starters are looking for bounce-back seasons. Freeland hopes to return to the form that won him 17 games in 2018, setting a franchise record with a 2.85 ERA. However, after struggling mightily last season (6.93 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and .296 BAA), my thought on that is, "Good luck!" Kluber won Cy Young awards in 2014 and 2017 but after a 20-7 (2.89 ERA) season in 2018, he fractured his right arm after being hit by a line drive off the bat of Miami's Brian Anderson in early May of 2019 and his season was over for good after straining an oblique muscle in August. He made only SEVEN starts in 2019, posting a 5.80 ERA, 1.65 WHIP and saw opponents hit .297 against him. This marks his first start since May 1 of 2019 at Miami. Both these clubs are capable of scoring runs and after combining for just SIX runs in the first two games of this series, expect the teams' bats to 'wake up" on Sunday. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry
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07-26-20 |
Brewers v. Cubs -112 |
Top |
1-9 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 21 m |
Show
|
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Chi Cubs at 2:20 ET. The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to that Nationals (not sure it made Milwaukee feel any better that Washington went on to win the World Series). Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross takes over for the Cubs, Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell begins his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year. The really good news for Milwaukee is that it will have the luxury of a healthy Christian Yelich, whose bid for back-to-back NL Most Valuable Player awards was derailed when he suffered a fractured kneecap with just under three weeks left in the 2019 campaign (Yelich has won the past two NL batting titles while hitting 80 HRs during that span). The two NL Central rivals have split the first two games of this three-game set, with the Cubs winning 3-0 on Friday night (Ross allowed Hendricks to stay in and get his CG shutout win!) and the Brewers rebounding with an 8-3 win on Saturday afternoon. Sunday's pitching matchup features Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta (7-3, 5.29 ERA in 2019) and Chicago's Tyler Chatwood (5-3, 3.76 in 2019). Peralta worked primarily a starter as a rookie in 2018 (14 of 16 appearances were starts), but worked mainly out of the bullpen last season, making 31 of his 39 appearances in relief. Chatwood has been a starter for much of his career but after making 20 starts for Chicago in 2018, he made 33 of his 38 appearances out of the bullpen in 2019. This will be Peralta's first career start against the Cubs. He has faced Chicago three times in relief, going 1-0 with a 5.79 ERA. In contrast, Chatwood is 4-3 with a 2.91 ERA In 12 career games (six starts) against Milwaukee. The Brewers have had trouble mustering offense at Wrigley Field since the start of the 2018 season, failing to produce more than two runs in 13 of 20 visits. The Brewers finally snapped out of that funk in Saturday's 8-3 rout but note that Chatwood was particularly strong against the Brewers in 2019, limiting them to two runs in 14.1 innings for a 1.26 ERA. let's also not forget that the Cubs owned the second-best home record in the NL (51-30) in 2019. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry
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07-25-20 |
Tigers v. Reds -1.5 |
Top |
6-4 |
Loss |
-114 |
11 h 12 m |
Show
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My 9* Run-Line Game of the Month (IL) is on the Cin Reds at 5:10 ET. The NL Central shapes up as the most wide-open division in MLB (not counting Pittsburgh, naturally). The Cubs were +230 to win the division, the Cards were +240 and Brewers were +350. That trio could be considered "the usual subjects" but the Reds (at +230), were listed as co-favorites with the Cubs. Their starting pitching rotation of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer, Wade Miley and Anthony DeSclafani looks VERY good plus the DH will help the lineup, Also of note is the fact that Joey Votto has been joined by the bats of Mike Moustakas plus Nicholas Castellanos. Meanwhile, the Tigers are coming off a MLB-worst 47-114 season in which Detroit finished 53 1/2-games back of the Twins in the NL Central. The teams "played to form" on Friday, as the Reds won 7-1. Sonny Gray pitched six innings, allowing three hits, one ER and added nine Ks. Mike Moustakas paid early dividends on that four-year, $64 million contract he signed in the offseason, by belting a two-run HR to highlight a three-hit, four-RBI performance. Taking the mound for the second game of this three-game set will be Detroit's Ivan Nova (11-12, 4.72 ERA in 2019 with the White Sox) and Cincy's Luis Castillo (15-8, 3.40 ERA in 2019).Nova made a MLB-high 34 starts last season but won just 11 games. His 114 K gave him his worst strikeout rate (5.49 per nine innings) since 2014. Nova sports a 5-7 record with a 4.24 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Reds, Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the tigers. Castillo has set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020 and have the Cincinnati Reds qualify for the playoffs. Winning the Cy Young may be a 'bridge too far' but the Reds making the playoffs (recently expanded!) seems like a good bet. So is laying the 1 1/2-runs with the Reds in tonight's game against the hapless Tigers. Good luck...Larry
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07-24-20 |
Twins -103 v. White Sox |
Top |
10-5 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 4 m |
Show
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My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (AL) is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. My 9* Pitching Mismatch (AL) is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019 by EIGHT games over Cleveland, finishing 101-61. It earned the franchise its first 100-win season since 1965, a year theTwins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The White Sox the White Sox scored a pathetic paltry 708 runs, the third-worst number in the AL behind division rivals Detroit and Kansas City. Chicago finished the season 72-89, 28.5 games back of the Twins. It represented the team's NINTH losing season in the 11 years since the White Sox last made the postseason (2008). However, only the Astros and Yankees had a higher difference in divisional win percentage and non-divisional win percentage than the White Sox. With division games (40 of 60) accounting for two-thirds of the 2020 season, the White Sox could be much more dangerous than last season's record indicates. The White Sox added key veterans like catcher Yasmani Grandal and left-handed pitcher Dallas Keuchel in the off-season, to go along with a budding young core featuring reigning AL batting champion Tim Anderson (.335). Getting to tonight's pitching matchup, it's Juan Berrios (14-8, 3.68 ERA in 2019) for the Twins and Lucas Giolito (14-9, 3.41 ERA in 2019) for the White Sox. Berrios matched his career-high win total en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. Giolito posted a horrific 6.13 ERA in 2018 but turned things around in a big way last season (see above), joining Berrios on the AL All-Star team. Giolito opens the 2020 season as Chicago's ace. While I acknowledge Giolito's massive improvement from 2018 to 2019, Berrios continued his domination of the White Sox last season, winning four of five decisions to boost his lifetime numbers against them to 11-2 with a 2.40 ERA (Twins are 12-2 in his 14 starts vs Chicago). Add to that the fact that the Twins owned a 50-26 record within the division last season (including a 13-6 mark against the White Sox) and the play is to back Berrios and the Twins in this one. Good luck...Larry
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07-24-20 |
Brewers v. Cubs -117 |
Top |
0-3 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 6 m |
Show
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My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Chi Cubs at 7:10 ET. The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). The Brewers grabbed the final NL wild card spot, besting the Mets by three games but then 'coughed up' an early three-run lead in a 4-3 loss to that Nationals (not sure it made Milwaukee feel any better that Washington went on to win the World Series). Joe Maddon, who guided the Cubs to a long-awaited World Series championship in 2016, decided to cut ties with the club and first-year manager David Ross takes over for the Cubs, Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell begins his sixth season with the Brewers and saw his team edge the Cubs for the Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) plus won 89 games last year. The really good news for Milwaukee is that it will have the luxury of a healthy Christian Yelich, whose bid for back-to-back NL Most Valuable Player awards was derailed when he suffered a fractured kneecap with just under three weeks left in the 2019 campaign (Yelich has won the past two NL batting titles while hitting 80 HRs during that span). Taking the mound will be Brandon Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA in 2019) for Milwaukee and Kyle Hendricks (11-10, 3.46 ERA in 2019) for Chicago. Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including that wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. It seems hard to believe that Kyle Hendricks has already been with the Cubs for five-plus seasons. He's accomplished quite a bit in his time with Chicago, starting Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, a season in which he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13). He has never finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.19. Hendricks will make his first Opening Day start in this one, as will Woodruff (note: Woodruff continues the trend of the Brewers having had a different Opening Day starter in each of the past six years). Woodruff has yet to beat the Cubs in five appearances (three starts), posting a 6.75 ERA (his ERA is 7.10 in those three starts). Meanwhile, the Cubs owned the second-best home record in the NL at 51-30 and Hendricks was superb at Wrigley Field in 2019, posting a 2.04 ERA and .206 batting average in 14 starts. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Georgia +4 v. Ole Miss |
Top |
81-63 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 49 m |
Show
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My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Georgia at 7:00 ET.
Georgia and Ole Miss have each endured disappointing seasons, as both enter their first-round matchup in the SEC tournament Wednesday in Nashville at 15-16 on the season. Ole Miss went 6-12 in the SEC, so the Bulldogs enter the tourney as the no. 12 seed, while the Bulldogs' 5-13 record makes them the 13th-seed. Georgia closed February by winning three of its final four games but has dropped its final two contests, getting blown out 94-64 at LSU to end the regular season. Ole Miss knows a little about getting blown out themselves, losing 69-44 at in-state rival Miss St on Saturday, snapping a modest two-game winning streak.
Tom Crean had success at Marquette (five NCAAs, including a Final 4) and Indiana (four NCAAs, including three Sweet 16s) but his first season at Georgia (2018-19) produced an 11-21 record, including 2-16 in SEC play. This year's team went 10-3 in non-conference play as noted above, the SEC portion of its schedule went only slightly better than last year. 6-5 guard Anthony Edwards enters the postseason leading all freshmen nationally in scoring (19.5) and is 42 points shy of matching Jacky Dorsey’s school record for most points by a freshman (646). The 6-5 guard, who is a projected NBA lottery pick this summer, has scored 20-plus points 13 times and 30-plus points on three occasions. 6-9 Junior forward/center Rayshaun Hammonds averages 12.6 points and 7.3 rebounds and over his last four games is averaging 14.8 points and nine rebounds on 51.2 percent shooting. Freshman PG Wheeler, adds 8.8 & 4.4 APG plus senior guard Crump is averaging 6.9 PPG, while 6-8 freshman forward Camara chips in 6.5 & 4.4.
Kermit Davis spent 16 seasons at Middle Tenn St and led the Blue Raiders into the postseason in SEVEN of his final nine seasons at Murfreesboro. That included THREE trips to the Big Dance and his 2017 team won 31 games. He took over at Oxford last season and the Rebels were able to 'sneak' into the NCAA tourney but lost their first game, finishing 20-13. However, Year 2 has NOT gone as planned. Like Georgia, Ole Miss has a terrific guard in Breein Tyree, who comes in averaging 19.7 PPG (he landed on the All-SEC first team). Shuler (11.5-4.5-3.3) and Hinson (10.2 & 4.7) join Tyree in the backcourt, while the 6-7 Buffen (10.1 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9.1 & 5.4) are the team's top frontcourt producers.
Georgia will play without senior guard Tyree Crump (mononucleosis) but I still believe Georgia is the better team on a neutral court. Ole Miss went 1-8 SU on the SEC road and that LONE win came back on Jan 25 in Athens, 70-60. The Bulldogs will REMEMBER plus we are getting points!
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
St. John's -2.5 v. Georgetown |
Top |
75-62 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 34 m |
Show
|
My 10* Conference Rivalry Game of the Year is on St John's at 7:00 ET.
Georgetown and St. John's were once 'giants' in the Big East but when the two schools meet Wednesday in the first round Wednesday of the Big East Tournament, the longtime rivals will check in as the tourney's 8th and 9th seeds, respectively. Both teams enjoyed success out of conference this season as the Hoyas went 10-3 and the Red Storm were 11-2. However, that success didn't carry over to conference play, as each went 5-13.
Chris Mullin resigned after last season, ending a disappointing four-year run at his alma mater. The Red Storm posted losing records in his first three seasons but last year's team went 21-13 and did make an NCAA appearance (no small deal, as it was just this once-proud basketball program's THIRD Big Dance appearance in 17 years!). Taking over was Mike Anderson, who came to renown at UAB and Missouri, before returning to Arkansas. His eight-year run with the Razorbacks didn't go as planned, as the school made just three NCAA appearances. At the end of last year he was fired, marking the end of a 25-year association with Arkansas as both an assistant and head basketball coach. Anderson is 59-years-old and had NO connection to NYC, so he was a surprise choice. This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news entering the current season was, FOUR starters returned. Losing Jessie Govan (17.5 & 7.5) from last year was a big deal but what was NOT expected was that returning guard Akinjo played just seven games before deciding to transfer (he was averaging 13.4 & 4.4 APG) plus the 6-7 LeBlanc (averaging 7.2) also decided to transfer.
Julian Champagnie is a 6-7 freshman who has made an immediate impact. He comes in averaging 10.0 PPG and a team-high 6.5 RPG. He became the first St. John's player to be named to the All-Big East freshman team since Shamorie Ponds and Marcus Lovett in 2017. He enters the tourney having scored in double digits in SEVEN straight games and has averaged 19 points and 7.7 rebounds while shooting 52.5 percent from the floor in three March games. 6-6 sophomore forward Marcellus Earlington (8.7 & 4.5) has also produced when given enough minutes. 6-6 junior Figueroa (14.3 & 4.5) and 6-5 senior Heron (13.8) returned in the backcourt plus PG Dunn has delivered a solid season (12.0-3.7-3.8) after being given the OK to play (was a transfer from Cleveland St). However, Heron won't play here due to an ankle injury.
As for the Hoyas, they lost three quality players to transfer early in the season and have been without leading scorers Omer Yurtseven and Mac McClung for six and nine games, respectively, since early February. The 7-0 Omer Yurtseven was averaging 15.8 & 10.0 and guard McClung, 15.5 PPG. 'Carrying' Georgetown these days are guards Jahvon Blair (10.9 & 3.0), Terrell Allen (9.1 & 4.0 APG) and Jagan Mosely (8.4 & 4.5) in the backcourt plus the 6-8 Jamorko Pickett (10.1 & 6.2) and the 6-11 Qudus Wahab (5.4 & 4.2), up front. Blair has been the team's best player since McClung went out, averaging 17.6 points in the last 10 games
The Hoyas and the Red Storm have met on 115 occasions, including NINE times in the Big East Tournament. These two storied programs combined to win EIGHT of the first 10 Big East Tournament titles (six by Georgetown) but just ONE, since (by St. John's). It's safe to say the NEITHER will be around very long this week but Georgetown is a mere 'shell' of the team that opened the season back in November. The Hoyas are 2-0 vs St John's this season, including a win on Super Bowl Sunday here at MSG, when they overcame a 17-point second-half deficit to win, 73-72. St John's gets out to a lead tonight and DOESN'T 'let go!"
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Washington v. Arizona -5 |
Top |
70-77 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Arizona at 5:30 ET.
Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. The Wildcats opened the season 9-0 and had the look of a team that could go far in the NCAA Tournament but inconsistent play has resulted in an 11-11 record since. Arizona finished 10-8 in Pac 12 play and enter the tourney as the No. 5 seed.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 2017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans (big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels) plus added a third with the transfer of guard Quade Green from Kentucky. However, after a 10-2 start, the Huskies' season imploded. Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible after a Jan 5 win against USC and Washington has gone 4-12 without him.
The Huskies lost NINE straight from Jan 18-Feb 20 but they won their first two conference road games of the season last weekend in Arizona (over the Sun Devils and Wildcats) and have won three of four since that nine-game losing streak. 6-9 freshman Stewart (16.6 & 8.7) and McDaniels (13.1 & 5.8) have been as good as advertised. Stewart was named to the Pac-12 first team on Monday and McDaniels is the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week after he averaged 18 points, six rebounds, 2.5 blocks and a steal in last weekend's state of Arizona sweep. Senior guard Carter (12.5 & 5.0) is the team's third double digit scorer plus sophomore guard Jamal Bey went 16-for-17 from the free-throw line and totaled 23 points in the sweep of the Arizona schools, although his season average is just 5.8 PPG.
Arizona's 6-11 Zeke Nnaji was named Pac-12 Freshman of the Year after leading the conference with 14 double-doubles and leading the club in scoring (16.3) and rebounding (8.6). PG Nico Mannion, a 6-3 guard from Italy, was a second-team and all-freshmen team selection after averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.4 APG. He's already said he'll leave school after the season and he's projected to be an NBA lottery pick this summer. Josh Green, a 6-6 freshman guard, scored a total of 20 points in two games since missing two with a back injury, and enters the tourney averaging 11.7 & 4.6. That trio of freshman have led the way for Arizona but senior guard Smith (8.5) and 6-9 senior Gettings (6.7 & 4.2) have been regular contributors. 6-10 senior Jeter (6.8 & 4.3) is supposedly eligible to return from his suspension, but who really knows.
Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here but I just can't see Arizona NOT putting forth an excellent effort off Saturday's 'ugly' home loss to Washington, in which the Wildcats shot 35.1% and scored 63 points. Arizona sis shooting 44.8% on the season and averaging 76.4 PPG.
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Fordham v. George Washington -2.5 |
Top |
72-52 |
Loss |
-115 |
23 h 41 m |
Show
|
My 9* Revenge Rout is on George Washington at 3:30 ET.
The 8-22 Fordham Rams enter the A-10 conference tournament as the No. 14-seed, after finishing dead-last in the conference standings at 2-16. Awaiting the Rams at Barclays Center on Wednesday afternoon will be the 12-19 George Washington Colonials, who own the No. 11-seed after going 6-12 in conference play. The 'kicker' is, BOTH of Fordham's A-10 wins have come over GW.
The Rams lost the 6-9 Ohams (11.0 & 8.2) was lost for the season after just 13 games with a knee injury and then the 6-9 Eyisi (6.5 & 5.6) went down im mid-Feb with a foot injury. Fordham head coach Jeff Neubauer will start four guards and 6-11 freshman Soriano (4.5 & 6.4). Guards Portley (10.4 & 3.7) and Cobb (10.2) are now the team's lone double digits scorers for a team averaging only 58.1 PPG (349th).
Head coach Jamion Christian led Mount St Mary's to two NCAA berths in six years and then led Siena to a NINE-game turnaround in his only year at Loudonville, NY (2018-19). This is his first season at GW and last year's team was just 9-24. This year's team is better but has NOT had the success the school had hoped for. GW was 10-11 entering Feb but has finished the season in a complete 'free-fall,' losing EIGHT of its final 10 games. Not sure one can explain it, as the Colonials own four double digitscorers. Senior PG Potter (14.3-3.2-5.9) leads the way, followed by junior guard Jackson (11.8), freshman guard Nelson (10.4) and 6-7 freshman forward Battle (11.9 & 5.3).
How does a team lose TWICE to sad-sack Fordham. My bet says GW won't lose THREE times this season to the Rams.
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Utah v. Oregon State -3.5 |
Top |
69-71 |
Loss |
-109 |
9 h 21 m |
Show
|
My 9* Afternoon Delight is on Oregon St at 3:00 ET.
16-14 Utah and 17-13 Oregon St tip off the festivities in Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on Wednesday afternoon as they meet in the 8-9 game of the Pac-12 tournament (both were 7-11 in league play). The winner will advance to Thursday's quarterfinals to face top-seeded Oregon. The Runnin’ Utes played just one game during the final week of the regular season, but it produced an emotional win as Utah rallied to stun rival Colorado 74-72 in overtime and secure the ninth seed. Meanwhile, the Beavers swept their regular season-ending homestand against Stanford and California to garner the eighth seed. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak and his Oregon State counterpart (Wayne Tinkle), were teammates at Montana during the 1985 and ’86 seasons. The former teammates will meet for the 10th time as opposing head coaches (Krystkowiak owns a modest 5-4 advantage).
6-6 forward Timmy Allen is the team’s leading scorer (17.5) and rebounder (7.3), while Gach (11.0) and PG Jones (9.6 & 4.5 APG) give the Utes a solid backcourt duo. Gach led the way in last Saturday’s home win over the Buffaloes, scoring a career-high 28 points, to garner his first career Pac-12 Player of the Week award. However, freshman PG Jones suffered a concussion Feb 29 against California. He missed the Colorado game and is NOT expected to play in this one. Utah does have solid depth though, as four other players are chipping in between 7.0 and 7.8 PPG.
Tinkle’s son Tres, a 6-7 senior forward, leads the team in scoring (18.4) and rebounding (7.0), while guard Ethan Thompson (14.9-4.2-4.5) and the 7-0 Kylor Kelley (11.1 & 5.7) also average double digits for the Beavers (note: Kelley's 3.5 blocks per game rank second nationally). Guard Reichle (7.9) and 6-6 forward Hollins (5.2 & 3.1) round out the Beavers' main contributors. Seniors Tinkle and Kelley lead the Beavers into the conference tourney after combining for 43 points, 14 rebounds, five assists and four blocks in a 74-56 Senior Day win over California on Saturday.
Yes, this is a neutral-site contest but note that Utah lost all NINE of its Pac-12 road games, averaging 68.9 points while allowing 78.0. Utah's 6-6 Allen will have a tough time matching up with OSU's Tinkle (Utah has no one to match OSU center Kelley) plus Thompson will be the best backcourt player on the floor. Ore St advances easily for another game with Civil War rival Oregon on Thursday.
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Suns v. Blazers -3.5 |
Top |
105-121 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 13 m |
Show
|
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET.
The 26-38 Phoenix Suns will visit the 28-37 Portland Trailblazers tonight. The Suns record is not much of a surprise but the Blazers, who last season reached the Western Conference Finals, have been a HUGE disappointment. Portland lost 123-11 last Saturday at home to the Sacramento Kings, its EIGHTH in the last 11 games. The Blazers are currently 4 1/2 game back of the West's No. 8 seed (Memphis), with New Orleans and Sacramento a half-game ahead of them. The Suns last made the playoffs in 2010 and have averaged 21.8 wins the previous four seasons.
The Suns beat the Blazers 127-117 in Phoenix last Friday and then toppled the Giannis-less Bucks 140-131 on Sunday. Aron Baynes (11.6 & 5.7) started both games in place of center Deandre Ayton (19.0 & 12.0), who is out with an ankle injury. He had 37 points and 16 rebounds in Friday's game with Portland and followed with 24 & 7 vs the Bucks. Both SG Booker (26.1-4.1-6.5) and PG Rubio (12.9-4.6-8.9) are healthy and each had great games vs the Bucks. Booker registered 36 points and eight assists, while Rubio had 25 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists for his seventh career triple double. However, SF Oubre, who's having a breakout season at 18.7 & 6.4, is out until April with a knee injury.
The Blazers own the outstanding backcourt duo of Lillard (29.0-4.3-7.8) and McCollum (22.5-4.1-4.3) plus center Whiteside (16.3 & 14.3) has done all that could have been expected of him. I'm NO big fan of 'Melo but the even he's been better than expected, chipping in 15.1 & 6.3. Recently acquired Ariza is a terrific defender and is averaging 10.5 & 4.7 in his 20 games with Portland. Why the Blazers continue to struggle is a mystery to me.
As noted above, the Suns just beat the Blazers last Friday and have now won two straight games against Portland but that's after losing the previous 11! With the Blazers off a home loss to the Kings and the Suns off an impressive win over the Bucks, I'm going "all in" on Portland in this one! After all, prior to beating the Blazers and Bucks, the Suns had gone just 3-12 ATS their previous 15 games.
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Magic v. Grizzlies -2 |
Top |
120-115 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 51 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mem Grizzlies at 8:05 ET.
The Orlando Magic lost EIGHT of nine from Jan 22 through Feb 8 but Sunday's 126-106 win at Houston gave the Magic their SEVENTH win in their last 11 games. The Magic wrap up their four-game road trip tonight at Memphis with a 29-35 record, closing within just a half-game of the Nets for the East's No. 7 seed. maybe more importantly, the Magic are now 5 1/2 games clear of the East's playoff 'cut line.' Like the Magic in the East, the 32-32 Memphis Grizzlies are currently the No. 8 seed in the West. The Grizzlies took an 8-2 run into the All Star break but retuned from the break and promptly lost FIVE in a row. However, the Grizzlies welcome the Magic to the FedExForum having won FOUR of their last five.
The Magic are averaging a modest 106.2 PPG (28th) on the season but they have averaged 120.8 points during their last 11 games, reaching at least 120 on five occasions in that run. Center Nikola Vucevic (19.5 & 11.0) and PF Aaron Gordon (14.4 & 7.6) both produced double-doubles against Houston's "small-ball" lineup. It was Gordon's SIXTH double-double in his last eight games. SGs Fournier (19.8) and Ross (14.6) have produced all season (note: Ross has played in 62 of 64 games without a single start), while the PG position has been ably manned by Fultz (12.0 & 5.2 APG) and Augustine (10.3 & 4.6 APG).
Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas (14.7 & 11.1) scored 27 points and pulled down 17 rebounds for his sixth double-double in the last seven games on Saturday, as the Grizzlies beat the Hawks, 118-101. He's one of SIX Memphis players averaging in double digits on the season but TWO of those players are currently sidelined. 6-11 PF Jarren Jackson (16.9 & 4.7) and 6-8 SF Brandon Clarke (12.0 & 5.8) are both out and are not expected to return to late-March. Rookie PG Ja Morant (17.6-3.5-7.0), SG Brooks (15.6), Valanciunas and SG Josh Jackson (10.2 & 3.4) are the "healthy four" averaging double digits. Josh Jackson was the 4th overall pick of the 2017 Draft (Phoenix) but was traded to Memphis over the summer. He's spent most of the season in the G-League and has played in just 17 games since joining the team. However, he's averaged 17 points over the last four games, while the 6-10 Dieng (acquired from Minnesota) is averaging 7.5 & 6.7 in 20 minutes in his 11 games with Memphis.
The Magic are off a HUGE upset win over Houston and now play their FOURTH road game in the last seven days/ Memphis was just 33-49 last season but a victory tonight will match its win total from all of last season. "The Price is Right" for Memphis to get that 33rd win and COVER "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Bruins -110 v. Flyers |
Top |
2-0 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 45 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Bruins at 7:08 ET.
The 43-14-12 (98 points) Boston Bruins have enjoyed season-long dominance and can become the first NHL team to reach triple digits in points with a victory tonight at red-hot Philadelphia. The Bruins are 0-2 vs the Flyers this season, including a 6-5 shootout loss at Philadelphia back on Jan 13. That contest is best remembered for Brad Marchand overskating the puck in what proved to be the final round to end the game. That victory sparked an 18-4-3 run for the Flyers, who are now 41-20-7 (89) and have closed within ONE point of the Washington Capitals in the Metropolitan Division.
The Bruins are coming off a rare loss, a 5-3 home setback against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday. David Pastrnak did manage to score his league-high 48th goal of the season (his 94 points lead the team and rank 3rd-best in the NHL) while defenseman Charlie McAvoy added one goal and one assist. However, Boston gave up two short-handed goals in a game filled by numerous penalties (26 in all) and skirmishes. Boston's No. 1 line is once-again a dominant force, as Marchand (86 points) and Bergeron (59 points / he's missed nine games) team with Pastrnak. Marchand has collected five goals and 12 assists during a 12-game point streak. Troubling for Boston is that the Bruins are beat up on the blue-line, so much so that coach Bruce Cassidy wasted little time in ruling out defensemen Torey Krug (49 points) and Brandon Carlo with upper-body injuries for Tuesday's contest, while naming Connor Clifton as a replacement.
The Flyers welcome the Bruins to Philadelphia having won a season-best NINE in a row overall and SEVEN straight at home, following Saturday's 3-1 win over Buffalo. Goalie Carter Hart has played a starring role in Philadelphia's ascent in the Metropolitan Division, posting a 9-1-0 record in 10 starts since returning from injury and a 20-2-2 mark at home this season. The Flyers can't match Boston's scoring 'punch,' as center Travis Konecny leads the team in goals (24) and points (61), well short the numbers of Pastrnak. RW Jakub Voracek set up a pair of goals against Buffalo to give him 10 of his club-best 44 assists during his last five games. He has 56 points, just behind center Sean Couturier, who has 22 goals and 59 points.
The Bruins had won four in a row before their Saturday loss to the Lightning but it's noteworthy that yet showed their mettle by coming back from an early three-goal deficit, before falling short. Nott sure if it will be Raask (25-8-6, 2.18 GAA / .926 SP) or Halak (18-6-6, 2.39 GAA / .919) in goal but either one would be fine. After two shootout losses to the Flyers this season, the THIRD time will be the CHARM for the NHL's best team!
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech |
Top |
78-56 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 12 m |
Show
|
My 9* Revenge Rout is on North Carolina at 7:00 ET. Roy Williams' Tar Heels were ranked No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but when "all the dust had settled" in the ACC's regular season, North Carolina owned a 13-18 overall record, including 6-14 in the ACC (tied with Pitt and Wake for the league's worst mark). It would be hard to make this up! Te Tar Heels open ACC tourney paly against the Va Tech Hokies, who are 16-15, including 7-13 in the ACC. Mike Young spent 17 years at Wofford, where he led the Terriers to five NCAA appearances, including last season. Wofford defeated Seton Hall 84-68 in LY's Big Dance, giving him the first NCAA Tournament win of his career. He took over at Va Tech, when Buzz Williams used Tech's Sweet 16 appearance last season to take the Texas A&M job. Young lost Va Tech's leading scorer from last year (Alexander-Walker at 16.2) to the NBA and couldn't convince the 6-10 Blackshear (14.9 & 7.5) to stay (he's a graduate transfer at Florida). The Hokies surprised by opening 6-0 and after a two-OT win over UNC on Jan 22, were14-5 (5-3 in the ACC). However, 'the bottom fell out' for Va Tech, as the Hokies went 2-10 SU and ATS over their final 12 regular season games.
Losing streaks of four, five and seven games have already made this a forgettable season in Chapel Hill, but North Carolina had won three in a row before losing 89-76 at Duke on Saturday. UNC freshman guard Cole Anthony began his college career with a bang by scoring 34 points in his debut. North Carolina opened the season 5-0 but Anthony went down with a knee injury in early December and didn't return until the beginning of February. He's played well since his return and checks in with a line of 19.6-5.7-4.1. Fellow freshman, the 6-10 Bacot, has averaged 9.6 & 8.2, while junior forward Garrison Brooks has had a strong season, averaging 16.7 & 8.8. Senior guard Robinson went down with an ankle injury just as Anthony returned but he's been back in the lineup the last SIX games and checks in at 11.9 PPG.
SEVEN of Va Tech's top-eight scorers are guards. Two freshman lead the way, Landers Nolley II (15.6 & 5.9) and Tyrece Radford (10.4 & 6.4). Guards Alleyene (9.0) and Bede (5.2-3.6-5.5) plus 6-5 SF Horne (7.6 & 4.2) complete the starting-five. Horne is the lone frontcourt player of note but note that Va Tech's two freshman guards are the team's top rebounders (see above).
One of North Carolina's MANY frustrating losses came at Virginia Tech back on Jan 22, when Tyrece Radford hit the game-winning shot with 0.4 seconds left in overtime. As noted, Va Tech's imploded since then (see above) and enters this contest with many (most?) of its best players struggling. Horne snapped out of a four-game slump in which he totaled 16 points on 6-of-24 shooting with 17 points on 6-of-10 from the floor in Wednesday's victory over Clemson and paced the Hokies in scoring again with 14 points on 5-of-9 shooting vs Notre Dame. However, freshman guards Nolley and Radford (team's top scorers and rebounders) have both failed to score 10 points in THREE of the team's last four games! The Tar heels may not last past Wednesday's second round but expect UNC to earn a "revenge win" and COVER vs Va Tech, as the Hokies are 0-15 ATS in their 15 losses this season!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-10-20 |
St Francis PA -1 v. Robert Morris |
Top |
67-77 |
Loss |
-115 |
10 h 49 m |
Show
|
My 10* NEC Tourney Game of the Year is on St Francis (Pa) at 7:00 ET.
Merrimack (14-4) was the regular-season champion of the Northeast Conference in its first Division I season. In fact, Merrimack became the first school ever to win 20 games in its first Division I season, going 20-11. However, the school is ineligible for postseason play as it transitions to Division I. The St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash and the Robert Morris Colonials both finished 13-5 in conference play but the Colonials' 76-658 home win over the Red Flash in the regular season finale (Feb 29) earned Robert Morris the No. 1 seed. That came with a HUGE bonus, as 19-14 Robert Morris gets to host 22-9 St Francis (Pa) in the championship game.
Colonials head coach Andy Toole has Robert Morris a win away from clinching a berth in the NCAA Tournament, an event he has experienced as a player, assistant and head coach. Toole played in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments as a PG at Penn in 2002 and ’03. He coached in back-to-back NCAA tourneys as a Robert Morris assistant to Mike Rice in ’09 and ’10, plus Toole guided the Colonials there as head coach in 2015. St Francis head coach Rob Krimmel has nowhere-near the success Toole has experienced. St Francis was his first-ever head coaching gig and he wasn't able to produce a winning season in any of his first FIVE. He entered this season off 18-13 and 18-15 years and while the Red Flash expected another winning season, this year's 22-9 mark is quite a surprise. Can Krimmel lead the Red Flash to a win here, giving the school just its second-ever NCAA berth (made it back in 1991)?
Robert Morris has the homecourt edge but St Francis is the better team. The Colonials own a nice guard trio in Williams (13.5 & 4.4), Bramah (13.0 & 7.9) and Treacy (8.5-2.8-4.5) plus the 6-8 Mendy (8.5 & 4.7) is their best frontcourt performer. However, the Red Flash counter with the dynamic guard duo of Isaiah Blackmon, the 2019-20 NEC Player of the Year, and Keith Braxton, the 2018-19 NEC Player of the Year. Blackmon is averaging 18.9 & 5.4 and Braxton 17.5-7.4-3.8. 6-6 forward Thompson (10.5 & 5.) is a third double digit scorer.
St Francis has scored 87 and 84 points in its two NEC tourney wins and won't let playing away from home stand in its way of the school's second-ever NCAA berth (see above). After all, the Red Flash are a MONEY-MAKING 11-3 ATS (79%) in road and neutral-site games this season! Party like it's 1991!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-10-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 |
Top |
62-71 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Northern Kentucky at 7:00 ET.
The 18-16 UIC Flames and the 22-9 Northern Kentucky Norse meet in the Horizon League championship game from the Indiana Farmers Coliseum (Indianapolis) on Tuesday night. The Flames were just 10-8 in the regular season and entered the tourney as the No. 4 seed but after winning twice at home (93-59 over IUPUI on March 3 and 67-61 over Youngstown St on Mar 5), they took down No. 1 seed Wright St last night, 73-56 as a six-point underdog (note: Wright St made just 28.3% of its shots!). John Brannen led the Northern Kentucky Norse to three straight 20-plus winning seasons the previous three years and to the "Big Dance" in two of those three seasons. However, he left for the 'greener pastures' of Cincinnati after the conclusion of last season. Darrin Horn, who and excellent head coaching success at Western Kentucky but flopped at South Carolina, took over. Horn's team finished second in the regular season (13-5) and had a bye into the semifinals. The Norse punched their ticket to the title game with an 80-69 win over Green Bay last night.
UIC owns depth in the backcourt, as four players contribute. PG Ferguson (14.5-5.8-4.8), followed by Ottey (11.7 & 3.1), Boahen (10.4 & 4.1) and Ahale (5.4). The frontcourt trio consists of the 6-8 Diggins (9.2 & 4.9), the 6-10 Bridges (8.5 & 5.0) and the 6-8 Blount (6.1 & 4.0). Ferguson tied his career high with 25 points, as Illinois-Chicago advanced to its first Horizon League championship game since 2004.
6-6 senior forward Dantez Walton was lost to an arm injury in December but returned on Jan 31. He's the team's top scorer (16.5) and rebounder (7.2) and is joined in the starting lineup by guards Sharpe (15.1), Tate (13.9 & 5.4) and Faulkner (11.9 & 4.2), plus the 6-5 Adheke (3.7 & 4.9). Sharpe led the Norse with 20 points against Green Bay, while Walton scored 19 and grabbed 11 rebounds.
This is the Flames' FOURTH game in eight days and they are coming off upsetting the Horizon's top-seed. Meanwhile, Northern Kentucky enters this game having won 14 of its last 17 games. TWO of those losses came at the hands of Wright St and other??….It came against these very same Flames, who won at Northern Kentucky 73-43, as 9 1/2-point underdogs! In that game, the Norse shot just 22.0% from the floor, including an abysmal 4 of 32 on threes! That WON'T happen here! Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
St. Mary's +4.5 v. BYU |
Top |
51-50 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 39 m |
Show
|
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on St Mary's at 11:30 ET.
Gonzaga ha dominated the WCC regular season ands the conference tourney for two decades but both fifteenth-ranked BYU and Saint Mary's are hoping for a chance to take down the Bulldogs in Tuesday title game (assumption being that Gonzaga, a two 'TD' favorite, beats San Francisco). The 25-7 Gaels and 24-7 Cougars have already played a couple nail-biters this season, with the Gaels winning 87-84 at home in OT on Jan 9 and the Cougars prevailing 81-79 at home on Feb 1, when T.J. Haws hit a three-pointer with 8.5 seconds left. The Cougars ended the regular season on a NINE-game winning streak (included a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga) and received a bye into the semifinals. St Mary's was the league's No. 3 seed and needed two OTs to put away Pepperdine 89-82 in Saturday's quarterfinals.
St Mary's is led by senior guard Ford (21.8) and 6-8 junior forward Fitts (16.7 & 7.0). Krebs (9.7 & 4.1) and PG Kuhse (5.8-3.3-3.8) surround Ford in the backcourt but Fitts only gets help up front from the 6-7 Fotu (6.3 & 3.5). The 6-10 Tass (6.6 & 3.6) was lost for the season with a knee injury back in late-December. BYU has the deeper team. led by 6-7 senior Childs (22.2 & 8.9), who gets help up front from Nixon and Lee (combined 14.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG). Toolson )(15.3-4.7-4.0), Haws (14.3 & 5.8 APG) and Barcello (9.5) give BYU an excellent guard trio.
BYU is a better team 'on paper,' but it's hard to ignore the two regular season meetings. BYU hasn't won a conference tourney title in 19 years, while St Mary's shocked Gonzaga in last year's WCC title game. I want NO part of St Mary's against Gonzaga but for tonight, I want the points as I see another tightly-contested game. Ford scored a career-high 42 points on Saturday while playing all 50 minutes. this tournament St Mary's is considered an NCAA Tournament at-large team by prognosticators no matter how it fares in the tournament, but Ford hasn't forgotten that the Gaels were 28-5 on Selection Sunday two years ago and got passed over by the NCAA selection committee. Again, take the points.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 |
Top |
101-92 |
Loss |
-110 |
13 h 17 m |
Show
|
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET.
The Toronto Raptors made a magical run to the NBA title last spring but when the team's main 'magician' (Kawhi) left for LA, the Raptors were expected to struggle. However, that has NOT been the case, despite the fact that the Raptors have seen all of their best players miss double digit games to injury. Toronto won 15 straight (Jan 15-Feb 10) before losing its final game before the break at Brooklyn. The Raptors returned from the break to win two straight but the dropped back-to-back home games to the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets, before embarking on a FIVE-game road trip. Toronto lost at Denver to open the trip but have won THREE in a row as it visits Salt Lake City on the final stop of that trip.
The Utah Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Utah rebounded to go 4-0 right before the All Star break but returned from the break to lose FOUR in a row. A Feb 28th home win over the Wizards snapped that four-game slide and the Jazz then went out and won all FOUR games of a road trip, at Cleveland, New York, Boston and Detroit. The 41-22 Jazz currently hold down the West's No. 4 seed but they are just TWO games back of the 2nd-seeded Clippers. Getting back to Toronto, the 45-18 Raptors are still 7 1/2 games back of the Bucks for the East's top-seed but have opened a three-game lead on the 3rd-seeded Celtics and are 4 1/2 games ahead of the 4th-seeded Heat.
The Raptors received all but SEVEN of their points from the team's starting-five on Sunday, as they won 118-113 at Sacramento. Norman Powell (16.8) scored 31 points, Kyle Lowry (19.7-4.8-7.7) added 30 and Pascal Siakam (23.6 & 7.5) finished with 23 in the win over the Kings to lead the solid play of the first unit, while FIVE reserves continued a downward trend with a combined 2-of-14 shooting. The team has became a bit deeper with the return of center Marc Gasol (7.6 & 6.3), who missed the previous 15 games with a hamstring injury, plus guard Fred VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) is expected back from a shoulder issue this week. Powell has strted in place of VanVleet, Ibaka (15.8 7 8.2) for Gasol and the team's fifth starter is SF Anunoby (10.8 & 5.4)
Bojan Bogdanovic followed up a rough game Friday at Boston by scoring 32 points on 12-of-18 shooting at Detroit, where Utah lost all of an early 22-point lead before surviving the stretch run. Donovan Mitchell added 25 points and is averaging 25.1 since the All-Star. Mitchell (24.4-4.4-4.2), Bogdanocvic (20.5 & 4.2) and center Rudy Gobert, a double-double 'machine' at 15.2 & 13.9, are the 'heart' of the jazz. PG Conley (13.9 & 4.3 APG) has NOT been as good as advertised but unsung players like swingman Ingles (9.6-4.0-5.2) SF O'Neale (6.1 & 5.2) have both played in all 63 games. Then there is Jordan Clarkson, who is averaging 15.8 PPG in 33 games since being 'rescued' from Cleveland.
The Raptors won 130-110 in Toronto back on Dec 1 but Raptors arrive in Salt Lake City off a game in Sacramento last night and will be playing their FIFTH road contest in a nine-day span. The Raptors led the jazz 77-37 in that Dec 1 game in Toronto and I have a 'feeling' the Jazz will remember. I'm "all over' the home team.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -1 |
Top |
69-75 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 60 m |
Show
|
My 10* Summit League Tourney Game of the Year is on North Dakota St at 7:00 ET.
The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and the North Dakota State Bison meet in a Summit League conference tournament semi-final matchup from the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, SD. Oral Roberts was just 9-7 in league play but moved to 17-13 on the season after winning last night, 79-52 over Omaha. It sure helped that Omaha shot an abysmal 27.1% from the floor (including 4 of 19 on threes) but don't minimize that fact that Oral Roberts' four digit scorers played well. Senior PG Burns (15.3-3.9-4.2) and freshman guard Abmas (14.9) for an excellent guard duo, while a pair of 6-8 forwards form an impressive frontcourt. Nzwkwesi leads the team in scoring (16.9) and rebounding (10.1) and gets solid help from Obanor (11.8 & 16.7). Abmas led last night with 20 points (Burns had 17), while Nzwkwesi added 13 & 9 and Obanor 13 & 11.
The North Dakota State Bison tied South Dakota St fir first with a 13-3 record but won the tiebreaker, giving them the No. 1 seed. However, the Bison barely edged No. 8 seed Denver (just 3-13 in league play), 'escaping with a 71-69 win on Friday (note: South Dakota St lost Friday night to IPFW!). The Bison are led by a pair of senior guards, PG Sahid (18.3-3.2-3.0) and the 6-6 Ward, who is the team's second-best scorer (16.6) and its top rebounder (7.1). 6-10 junior Kreuser (10.3 & 5.9) is the team's best frontcourt play. Sahid had 22 points and Ward 20 in edging Denver but the big surprise was sophomore guard Griesel (6.5 &n 5.6), who had 10 points and 13 rebounds.
North Dakota St survived despite shooting only 38.6%, while Denver shot 50.0%. North Dakota St was a surprise winner of this tourney last year (entered the tourney 15-15, including 9-7 in league play but then won THREE games in three days!) but this year was a co-favorite with South Dakota St. The Jackrabbits are out and after a HUGE scare Saturday night vs Denver, I expect the Bison to be fully focused in this one. "The Price is Right" for a HUGE play on North Dakota St!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-09-20 |
Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State -4 |
Top |
65-70 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Appalachian St at 7:00 ET.
It's second round Sun Belt conference tournament action as the Appalachian State Mountaineers (17-14 / 11-9 Sun Belt) host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (16-16 / 8-12 Sun Belt from the Holmes Convocation Center in Boone, NC. Cliff Ellis owns more tha 850 career wins as a head coach but it's been awhile since he and his Chanticleers shocked CBB with back-to-back NCAA appearances in 2014 and 2015. Coastal Carolina entered this season off 14-18 and 17-17 years and as noted above, are just 16-16 entering play tonight. Over in Boone, NC, the Appalachian State football program has made major 'waves' but the same can't be said for the basketball program. However, head coach Dustin Kerns (in his third season) has turned things around this season. His Mountaineers won just 15 games in his first year and entered this season off an 11-21 year in 2018-19. A 17-14 record may not seem like a big deal to some but the fans are looking forward to the school advancing in this tourney.
Appalachian State comes into the tournament as them No.6 seed, finishing with an 11-9 mark in conference play. The Mountaineers have a solid backcourt led by PG Forrest (17.3-3.4-2.9) plus Williams (12.8 & 4.2) and Delph (9.3 & 3.8). The 6-9 Johnson (11.0 & 7.7) is joined by the 6-7 Lewis (7.3 & 4.2) and the 6-9 Seacat (6.6 & 5.0). Coastal Carolina can match Appalachian St in the backcourt, as PG Jones (17.0-5.7-5.7) is joined by Brewton (14.5), Gumbs-Frater (11.2) and Green (8.54 & 5.0). However, the lone frontcourt player of note is the 6-8 Burton (11.8 & 7.4).
Appalachian St hasn't played since March 3 plus will NO doubt remember losing 84-77 at home to Coastal Carolina on Feb 29, when the Chanticleers shot 57.1% from the floor. The Chanticleers are looking for another upset win, after eking out a 63-62 victory at UT-Arlington in their first round matchup on Saturday. However, this marks the team's FOURTH straight road game (began with that Feb 29 win at App St) and I believe that's asking "too much" of a 16-16 team. The well-rested Mountaineers get the win and COVER!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-08-20 |
Iowa v. Illinois -3.5 |
Top |
76-78 |
Loss |
-108 |
11 h 37 m |
Show
|
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Illinois at 4:00 ET.
No. 18 Iowa (20-10) and No. 23 Illinois (20-10) are both safely are safely in the NCAA Tourney field but each has motivation for this game. Illinois dropped to fourth place in the Big Ten Conference (12-7) with its Thursday home loss to the Buckeyes but a win would give the Illini a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, Iowa suffered its first home defeat since early November when it lost 77-68 to Purdue on Tuesday. However, if the Hawkeyes beat the Illini, they hold the tiebreaker for the No. 4 spot over Illinois, Ohio State and Penn State.
Iowa's 6-11 Luka Garza (23.7 & 9.9) has a chance to win national Player of the Year. Garza scored 26 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in the loss to Purdue to register his team-leading 15th double-double of the season (note: he's scored 20 or more points in 15 straight Big Ten games). Guard Joe Wieskamp (14.3 & 6.1) and freshman guard CJ Fredrick (10.5) are the team's other two double digit scorers. The 6-10 Ryan Kriener (7.9 & 4.2) starts up front with Garza, while Toussaint (6.2) and McCaffrey (6.1-4.0-3.9) give Iowa an excellent perimeter group.
The Illini are led PG Ayo Dosunmu (16.6-4.2-3.2). 6-9 freshman Cockburn (13.4 & 8.8) and guard Feliz (10.9 & 5.2) join him in double figures, while guards Griffin (9.1 & 4.6) and Frazier (9.1), just miss. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (6.8 & 4.8) works alongside of Cockburn, up front. Dosunmu scored a game-high 21 points and dished out five assists, but the Fighting Illini couldn’t hold on to a seven-point halftime lead in the loss to Ohio State. Feliz added 11 points and 11 rebounds to register his third double-double of the season, However, Cockburn was limited to six points and three rebounds due to foul trouble.
The Hawkeyes defeated the Illini 72-65 back on Feb 2 at home, with Garza leading the way with 25 points and 10 rebounds. However, allowing 11 PPG more on the road than at home. Cockburn is surely capable of playing Garza even (he NEEDS to) but don't be surprised if it's Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu (he's averaging 20 points over his last five outings!) who plays the starring role in this one, especially come "crunch time." Iowa has beaten Illinois FIVE in a row but home court rules' in this one, as the Illini win convincingly, which means the team is off until Friday!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-08-20 |
Lakers +2.5 v. Clippers |
Top |
112-103 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 3 m |
Show
|
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Pacific) is on the LA Lakers at 3:35 ET.
The LA Lakers are 48-13, 5 1/2 games better than the 43-19 LA Clippers. However, the Clippers are 2-0 against their Staples Center co-tenants, posted a 112-102 victory in the season opener on Oct 22 and a 111-106 win on Christmas Day. The Clippers have recorded an average margin of victory of 17.0 points in winning SIX in a row (longest active streak in the NBA) but the Lakers have won 10 of their last 11, after beating the NBA-best Milwaukee Bucks Friday night at Staples, 113-103.
The Lakers go as Davis and James go. A.D. (26.6 & 9.5) and LBJ (25.6-7.8-10.7) combined for 67 points in the win over the Bucks and on the season, only Kuzma (12.5 & 4.4) averages in double digits. The Clippers have their own "Dynamic Duo: in Kawhi (26.9-7.5-5.1) and Paul George (20.9-5.9-3.9). However, they also have two of the NBA's best bench players in guard Williams (18.8 & 5.8 APG) and PF Harrell (18.7 & 7.1). What's more, the Clippers recently added forward Marcus Morris at the trade deadline and PG Reggie Jackson on the buyout market. Morris has averaged 10.4 points in 10 games and Jackson 8.7 points and 3.6 assists in seven game.
The Clippers have the better all-around team but SO did Milwaukee on Friday. LBY and A.D. have carried the Lakers to the second-best record in the NBA and as noted, lead the Clippers by 5 1/2 games for the West's best record. Like on Friday, the Lakers find a way!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-08-20 |
Valparaiso v. Bradley -3 |
Top |
66-80 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 25 m |
Show
|
My 10* MVC Champ Game is on Bradley at 2:05 ET.
Matt Lottich's first season at Valpo saw the Crusaders go 24-9 (2016-17) but the next two seasons saw them finish 15-17 and 15-18. The Crusaders ended their regular season just 16-15 (9-9 in the MVC) but have now won three games in three days in St Louis (Arch Madness) to reach the MVC championship game as the 7th-seed (10-team league). Brian Wardle took the Bradley head coaching job in 2015-16, after having no success at Green Bay. That first season was a disaster (5-27) but in his fourth season (last year), Wardle led the Braves to the NCAA Tournament by winning The Missouri Valley’s “Arch Madness” Tournament (first MVC title for Bradley since 1988), as the Braves overcame an 18-point deficit to beat Northern Iowa 57-54. The win led to Bradley's first NCAA Tourney appearance since 2006. Bradley finished this year 11-7 in MVC play (tied with Ind St for third), although the Braves were the 4th-seed. However, Bradley's back in the title game with wins over Southern Illinois and Drake.
The Crusaders are led by freshman PG Freeman-Liberty (18.9-5.9-3.3), who gets help from a trio of guards combining for just under 18 PPG. The 6-8 Ryan Fazekas, a graduate transfer from Marquette, was lost early on to an ankle injury but he returned in late January. He checks in as the team's only other double digit scoer at 10.8 PPG. However, like the backcourt, Valp has depth up front, as four others chip in between 6.4 and 9.4 PPG, with 6-7 freshman Clay being the top scorer (9.4) and rebounder (4.7) of that group. Freeman-Liberty scored 29 points with nine rebounds and five assists, as Valparaiso beat Missouri State 89-82 Saturday to advance to the championship game.
Bradley's a veteran team, led by returning guards Brown (14.3 & 4.6 APG) at the point and Kennell (12.5 & 4.4). LSU transfer Kingsby (7.4) starts with the aforementioned duo in the backcourt, with the 6-7 Childs (14.7 & 8.7) and the 6-11 Bar (6.4 & 7.) starting up front. The 6-6 Henry (9.3 & 5.9) is also a frontcourt contributor. Darrell Brown scored 25 points to lead FIVE players in double-figure scoring as No. 4 seed Bradley beat eighth-seeded Drake 76-66 on Saturday to advance to a second straight Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship.
FOUR wins in four days? I'm not convinced (even a little) that Valpo's up to that task. The No. 7 seed Crusaders beat 10th-seed Evansville Thursday by just THREE points (note: Purple Aces lost all 19 MVC games this season) and then upset No. 2 seed Loyola Chicago on Friday in OT. Saturday's win over Missouri St came over a team that like Valpo finished 9-9 in conference play and sees its season end with a 16-17 record. Playing off back-to-back outright wins as an underdog makes me believe the THIRD time WON'T be the charm for Valpo. For Bradley, it will be "deja vu all over again," as the Braves capture a SECOND-straight MVC Tourney title and make a SECOND-straight trip to the Big Dance.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-08-20 |
Michigan v. Maryland -4 |
Top |
70-83 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 1 m |
Show
|
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Maryland at 1:00 ET.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (that went well, didn't it?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but began 7-0, after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis (Thanksgiving week). The Wolverines shocked then-No. 6 North Carolina (73-64) and now-No. 2 Gonzaga in the championship game. When "the dust had settled," Michigan wound up No. 4 in the AP poll on Dec 4. However, the Wolverines then went 4-9 over their next 13 games to fall to 11-8, including 2-6 in the Big Ten. Michigan to win SEVEN of eight but then dropped two in a row. The Wolverines ended that mini two-game skid with an 82-58 rout of Nebraska on Thursday to virtually punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Mark Turgeon's Maryland team was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll and the Terps opened 10-0. They were ranked No. 4 when they lost Dec 10 at Penn St, a defeat started a 3-4 run. However, Maryland then won NINE in a row from Jan 18-Feb 18. Heading into their final five games, the ninth-ranked Terrapins were in excellent position to claim the regular-season title outright, but they've stumbled toward the finish line. Maryland has lost to Ohio State, Michigan State and Rutgers, with its lone victory during that span coming in a one-point win over Minnesota.
The Wolverines scored 50 points in the second half of their win over Nebraska, capping off an emotional Senior Night in Ann Arbor, which saw PG Zavier Simpson (12.9-4.4-7.9) and 7-1 center Jon Teske (11.7 & 6.9) play their final home game. The return to health of the 6-7 Isaiah Livers has been huge for Michigan. He leads the team in scoring at 13.3 PPG, which give Michigan FIVE players in double digits. Guards Wagner (11.4 & 5.7) and Brooks (10.8) round out that group. With "all hands on deck," Michigan has regained its swagger.
Maryland lost the 6-10 Fernando and his double-double average (13.6 & 10.6) from last year's 23-11 NCAA team (lost in the 2nd round) but FOUR starters returned. PG Anthony Cowan Jr. (16.2 & 4.6 APG) is the team's leading scorer, closely followed by the 6-10 Jalen Smith (15.4 & 10.5). Guards Aaron Wiggins (10.2 & 4.1), Morsell (8.6 & 4.8) and Ayala (8.2) plus 6-8 freshman Donta Scott (6.0 & 3.8) round out Maryland's main contributors.
One can't ignore that Maryland enters its final regular-season game a bit shaken but the Terrapins can still claim at least a share of the Big Ten title with a victory over No. 25 Michigan on Sunday. PG Cowan and the 6-10 Smith are an outstanding 'one-two punch,' with Smith leading the Big Ten with 20 double-doubles (has double-doubles in 12 of his last 13). Michigan lost the previous week to both Wisconsin and Ohio St and I'm not sure a win over hapless Nebraska means much. This stat may surprise some (it did me), as Maryland has won a Big Ten-best 45 home games since the start of the 2017-18 season. A 46th home win here and the Terps earn a share of the Big Ten regular season title for the first time since joining the conference.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-07-20 |
Stanford v. Oregon -7.5 |
Top |
67-80 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 47 m |
Show
|
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Oregon at 11:00 ET.
No. 13 Oregon (20-7 / 12-5 Pac 12) can finish with no worse than a share of the Pac-12 Conference title if it can beat Stanford (20-10 / 9-8 Pac 12) on Saturday in Eugene, in the regular-season finale for both teams. Oregon pulled into a tie atop the conference (with UCLA) on Thursday with its 90-56 blowout of visiting Cal. Meanwhile, Stanford battled back from a 10-point deficit in the second half to take a one-point lead with less than a minute remaining at Oregon St, only to lose 68-65.
The loss dropped Stanford behind Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and USC, all of which are tied at 10-7 heading into the final day of regular-season competition. The four-team logjam ahead of the Cardinal make it unlikely that Stanford could secure one of the four byes in the Pac-12 tournament. Stanford features the inside/outside duo of 6-10 da Silva (16.1 & 6.3) and PG Terry (15.2-4.6-3.2) plus the Cardinal lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense at 61.9 PPG.
Oregon is led by senior PG Payton Pritchard (20.2-4.3-5.6). He's a leading candidate for Pac-12 player of the year and the ONLY player in the nation averaging at least 20 points, four rebounds and five assists per game. The Chris Duarte, the team’s second leading scorer (12.9) and rebounder (5.6), is out indefinitely due to a broken finger. However, he's been replaced in the starting lineup by Mathis (8.3), who has averaged 13.7 points in his last three games. Guard Richardson (10.9) and 6-7 forward Juiston (8.0 & 6.20 have been solid contributors all season.
An Oregon win would guarantee the Ducks the tournament's top seed by virtue of having won its lone meeting with UCLA and considering the Ducks have won 21 consecutive home games, including all 16 this season, I like Oregon's chances to do just that. However, the Ducks have to cover to 'ca$h' but I like their chances to do that as well. Oregon's romp over Cal was its widest margin of victory in a Pac-12 game this season and the Ducks will well-remember losing 70-60 at Stanford back on Feb 1. The Cardinal opened Pac 12 play 4-0 but are just 5-8, since. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 |
Top |
69-63 |
Loss |
-110 |
14 h 43 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on Washington/Arizona Over at 10:00 ET.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 2017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans (big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels) plus added a third with the transfer of guard Quade Green from Kentucky. However, after a 10-2 start, the Huskies' season imploded. Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible after a Jan 5 win against USC and Washington has gone 3-12 without him (lost NINE straight from Jan 18-Feb 20).
Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. Arizona has been in and out of the top-15 all season but is currently unranked (20-10 / 10-7 in Pac 120 as it host Washington in its regular season finale.
Freshman "big men" Stewart (16.6 & 8.7) and McDaniels (12.8 & 5.8) have been as good as advertised, but the loss of Green was just "too much." Washington is locked into last place after winning the Pac-12 regular-season title by three games a year ago but it did spring a 90-83 upset at Arizona State on Thursday night. The Huskies shot 50.8 percent in notching their first conference road victory of the season. Guard Nahziah Carter (12.8 & 5.0) matched his career high with 23 points, while Jaden McDaniels added 16 points off the bench and Isaiah Stewart finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds, the 13th double-double of his standout freshman season.
Arizona entered Thursday’s contest against Washington St with a season-long three-game losing streak and proceeded to fall behind the Cougars 31-29 at the half. However, the Wildcats took charge with a 26-0 run and wound up shooting 58.9 percent over the final 20 minutes, in the 83-62 win. Freshman PG Nico Mannion (14.1 & 5.4 APG) scored a game-high 23 points and also dished out seven assists. Fellow freshmen, the 6-11 Zeke Nnaji (16.4 & 8.5) had 21 points and guard Josh Green (11.9 & 4.6) also finished in double figures (12 points). Green returned to action after a two-game absence due to a back sprain. However, was without 6-10 center Chase Jeter (6.8 & 4.3, who has been suspended for the final two regular-season contests due to a violation of team rules and guard Max Hazard (5/3, who didn’t play for the second time in three games due to unspecified personal reasons.
Here's where we are. Thursday's win lifted Arizona into a four-way tie for third place in the Pac-12 with Colorado, USC and Arizona State. A win here just could help the Wildcats secure a top-four finish and the corresponding first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament in Las Vegas. Mike Hopkins "Boeheim-like zone" has been routinely shredded and I expect Arizona to score in the 80s, as the Wildcats scored 75 points in a three-point win in Seattle back on Jan 30. That said, don't be so sure Washington won't "stay close" and that means the game could go WAY over this number. Yes, Washington is 4-13 in the Pac-12, but the Huskies have OUTSCORED the opposition by six total points in conference play!! Washington has made a habit out of dropping the close ones, going 0-7 in league games decided by four points or fewer. Both teams were in the 70s in the first meeting and both are coming off excellent shooting games on Thursday (see above). This one flies over the total.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-07-20 |
Jazz v. Pistons OVER 214 |
Top |
111-105 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 47 m |
Show
|
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ut/Det Over at 7:05 ET.
The Utah Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Utah rebounded to go 4-0 right before the All Star break but returned from the break to lose FOUR in a row. A Feb 28th home win over the Wizards snapped that four-game slide and the Jazz are in Detroit on Saturday, looking to extend their winning streak to FIVE row and to cap the team's a four-game road trip at 4-0. The Jazz are 40-22, which currently gives them the West's No. 4 seed, However, the West's No. 2 through No. 7 seeds are separated by just 5 1/2 games. There are NO playoff considerations for Detroit, which has lost NINE of 10 and checks in a 20-43.
Detroit's lineup has been decimated by injuries and the trade of center Drummond, who was sent packing along with his 17.8 PPG and 15.8 RPG. PG Derrick Rose was recently diagnosed with a Grade 2 ankle sprain and likely won't play again this season. Griffin (15.5 PPG) managed just 18 appearances before being lost for the season and Kennard (15.8) hasn't played since before Christmas. Those four make up Detroit's top scorers this season. Head coach Dwane Casey said he's encouraged by the effort he is receiving from the players. "That's one thing I love about this group, they compete and they are playing hard," Casey told reporters after Wednesday's 114-107 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. "We have a lot of growing up to do, and we have a lot of men in a lot of situations they have not been in before." Detroit erased a double-digit deficit in the second half, but Oklahoma City scored the last eight points. The Thunder shot 69 percent in the first half. "Our defense was probably the worst it's been since I've been here," Pistons coach Dwane Casey said. "The first three quarters were terrible. The fourth quarter, we made a muscle, came out and put our will into the game and played much better." Let me note here that Detroit has allowed an average of 113.6 PPG over its last seven games.
Switching to Utah, the Jazz have 20-point scorers in SG Mitchell (24.4-4.4-4.3) and SF Bogdanovic (20.3) plus a double-double 'machine' in center Gobert (15.3 & 13.9). They also have 'tons' of depth. In particular, Clarkson has averaged 15.8 PPG in 32 games since coming from Cleveland and will enter this game having reached double digits in 14 of the past 16 games. Mitchell and Bogdanovic shot a combined 5-for-24 from the floor in last night's 99-94 win at Boston, so EXPECT a bounce-back here.
Speaking of Boston, the Jazz have played the Celtics twice over their last six games. The other four games have been against the 19-44 Knicks, 17-45 Cavs, 23-39 Wizards and 25-38 Suns. That quartet closely resembles the 20-43 and let me note that those four finals averaged 236.3 PPG, more than 'THREE TDs' higher than the opening over/under number on tonight's contest! It's Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-07-20 |
Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6 |
Top |
44-69 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 26 m |
Show
|
My 10* CBB Rivalry Game of the Year is on Mississippi St at 6:30 ET.
Ole Miss (15-15 / 6-11 SEC) visits Starkville for the regular season finale for both the Rebels and their longtime Rivals, the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Ole Miss will be very lucky to play in any of the this season's postseason tourneys and while 19-11 Mississippi St (10-7 SEC) will surely continue to play after the SEC tourney, the Bulldogs will likely need to make some 'noise' in the conference tourney to have any chance of earning an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
Kermit Davis made quite any name for himself at Middle Tenn St and took Ole Miss to last year's NCAA tourney (finished 20-13). However, he's no such success this season. However, the Rebels have won their last two. Ole Miss owns a good backcourt, led by senior guard Breein Tyree (20.3) He is joined by Shuler (11.4-4.7-3.4) and Hinson (10.6 & 4.7). The 6-7 Buffen (10.7 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9. 1& 5.5) give the Rebels a decent frontcourt duo.
Ben Howland knows more than just a little about coaching and his Miss St team has put together back-to-back seasons of 25 and 23 wins in the tough SEC. This year's team will sure misses Qiunndary Witherspoon (18.5 PPG) but FOUR starters returned plus he added freshman guards Stewart and Molinar. The 6-10 Perry (17.2 & 9.9) leads in scoring and rebounding plus the Bulldogs are 'loaded' on the perimeter. Carter (14.1) leads the way, joined by vets Weatherspoon (11.7-3.6-4.0) & Woodard (11.4 & 6.7) plus freshman Stewart (8.6) and Molinar (6.0).
Miss St had won FOUR of five but saw a big opportunity for a win go by the board with an 83-71 loss at South Carolina on Tuesday (Gamecocks are another bubble team). However, the Bulldogs still have a chance to gain one of the top-four seeds and a double bye in the SEC tourney if they get some help elsewhere and they defeat the Rebels. Miss St can only control this game and a dominating win over its bitter rival (Ole Miss is 1-9 SU in true road games) is EXACTLY what I expect from the Bulldogs.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-07-20 |
Wisconsin v. Indiana -2 |
Top |
60-56 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 44 m |
Show
|
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET.
Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and as the 24th-ranked Badgers visit Indiana for tehri regular season finale, they are the hottest team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin has won SEVEN in a row (20-10 / 13-6 Big Ten) and claim at least a share of the Big Ten championship for the first time since 2015 with a win Saturday over the 19-11 (9-10 Big Ten) Hoosiers. Archie Miller began his third season as Indiana's head coach in 2019-20 and KNEW he had better improve on the 16 and 19-win seasons the Hoosiers delivered in his first two seasons at Bloomington. Indiana was 10-1 in non-conference play but it's been 'tough sledding' in Big Ten. The schools met Dec 7 in Madison and Wisconsin came away with an 84-64 victory over Indiana
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers returned a solid core. The 6-11 Reuvers (12.9 & 4.4) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt, even though King left the team (he was averaging 10.0 PPG but his last game was Jan 24 and he's headed to Nebraska?). In fact, the Badgers are 10-2 without him. Trice (10.0-4.0-4.2), Davison (9.8 & 4.4) and Pritzl (8.2) are a quality trio on the perimeter. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.9 & 6.0 since joining the team (he's played 19 games) and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.5 & 4.4), support Reuvers up front.
Indiana lost two NBA players from last year's team, guard Langford (16.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Morgan (15.5 & 8.2), but highly-touted 6-9 freshman Jackson-Davis (13.9 & 8.1) has been as good as advertised. He's joined up front by returning 6-7 forward Smith (10.5 & 5.3) and 6-11 Butler graduate transfer Brunk (7.0 & 5.3). The backcourt has depth in Green (10.6), Durham (9.7) and Phinisee (7.3).
The Badgers find themselves in position to secure the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament based on tiebreakers with Maryland and Michigan State if they can win here. However, while the Badgers have lost only once since Feb 1, SIX of their eight wins since have come at home. Indiana comes into this contest having snapped a two-game losing streak with a 72-67 home win over Minnesota on Wednesday night, as all five starters scored in double figures in the win, led by freshman forward Trayce Jackson-Davis, who had 18 points and 9 rebounds, despite playing through a foot sprain. Indiana is 15-3 at home this season and more notably, has gone 5-1 against ranked teams this season with the lone loss coming 77-76 to Maryland. The Hoosiers have beaten ranked teams Florida State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Iowa at Assembly Hall. Wisconsin would love to win the Big Ten regular season title but the badgers have clinched a "double-bye" in the tourney, as the school gets set of its 21st NCAA appearance in the last 22 season. Meanwhile, Indiana is vying for a return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016 and has played excellent defense lately, holding their last five opponents to 65.4 PPG. A win here could greatly help the school's at-large resume.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
Santa Clara +3 v. Pepperdine |
Top |
73-84 |
Loss |
-109 |
13 h 49 m |
Show
|
My 10* WCC Tourney Game of the Year is on Santa Clara at 11:30 ET.
Herb Sendek has taken schools like Miami-Fl, NC State and Arizona St to the "Big Dance." He was fired on March 24, 2015 by Arizona State, after an 18–16 record, losing to USC in the Pac-12 Tournament and a trip to the NIT. Sendek accepted the head coaching job at Santa Clara on March 28, 2016, replacing recently fired coach, Kerry Keating. After seasons of 17, 11 and 16 wins, Sendek's Broncos earned their 20th win of the 2019-20 season last night, beating Portland 76-62. The Broncos will take on the 15-15 Pepperdine Waves in the second round of the WCC Tourney in Las Vegas (Orleans Arena). While Pepperdine was just 15-15, the Waves' 9-9 league mark gave them a first-round bye, as the Broncos went just 6-10 in MCC play during the regular season.
Wertz (12.0-3.5-4.0) and Eddy (8.9) are a solid backcourt duo plus Sendek has real depth and SIZE in his frontcourt. The group includes the 6-9 Vrankic (12.3 & 5.5), the 6-8 Mitchell (10.6 & 5.2), the 6-11 Caruso (9.7 & 4.40 and the 6-10 Bediako (6.6 & 5.3). Pepperdine PG Ross (19.8-4.4-7.2) will be the best player on the court and Chavez (10.1) is a solid backcourt partner. Up front, the Waves feature the Edwards brothers, 6-6 senior Kameron adds 16.5 & 7.1, while 6-8 sophomore Kessler adds 13.7 & 7.6.
Pepperdine has underachieved all season (7-7 in non-conference action / 8-8 in WCC play), yet beat Santa Clara both times during the regular season, 90-86 (OT) on the road and 91-77 at home. That 91-77 result at Pepperdine was the FIRST of SIX straight losses for Santa Clara (Broncos had been 18-6). However, back-to-back wins over Portland has Santa Clara back in the winning column and I believe the Broncos are headed to Saturday's quarterfinals, as "the THIRD time will be the charm" in this meeting with the Waves.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
Bucks v. Lakers +1 |
Top |
103-113 |
Win
|
100 |
16 h 53 m |
Show
|
My 9* "Best vs the Best Showdown Play is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET.
Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.6-13.8-5.8) has led the Bucks to the NBA's best record (53-9) and he'll lead his team into tonight's game at Staples Center against the LBJ (25.4-7.8-10.7) and A.D. (26.6 & 9.5)-led LA Lakers. The Lakers own the West's best record at 47-13 and enter having won NINE of their last 10 games. The Bucks enter having won SEVEN of eight and won the first meeting between the two teams 111-104 back on Dec. 19 in Milwaukee.
Antetokounmpo recorded 34 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in Milwaukee's 111-104 home victory over the Lakers on Dec 19 and the Bucks are expecting the Lakers to be in "revenge mode!" Milwaukee PG Eric Bledsoe told reporters, "We beat 'em pretty bad. They're gonna try to come out strong, so we just gotta match their intensity." Bledsoe (15.3-4.7-5.4) and SF Middleton (20.9-6.3-4.1) make up Milwaukee's "Core 3" but the Bucks have many more regular contributors than the Lakers.
Outside of LBJ and A.D, the only other Laker in double digits is reserve forward Kuzma (12.6). LBJ had 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in the first contest against Milwaukee, while Davis posted 36 points and 10 rebounds. However, LA's center duo of McGee (6.9 & 5.1) and Howard (7.8 & 7.6) combined for only six points and seven rebounds!
I will NOT argue against the fact that the Bucks are the NBA's most complete team but as noted above, the Lakers have won NINE of 10 and have ben been able to put the tragedy of Kobe's shocking death, behind them. This could be a preview of the NBA Finals and LA could surely use a confidence-building win. That's my bet!
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
Missouri State v. Indiana State +2 |
Top |
78-51 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 48 m |
Show
|
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Indiana St at 9:35 ET.
It's Arch Madness in the MVC, as the third-seeded Indiana State Sycamores (18-11 / 11-7) take on the sixth-seed Missouri State Bears (15-16 / 9-9) Friday night at the Enterprise Center in St Louis. Missouri State won a tiebreaker with Valparaiso, earning a first round bye into the quarterfinals (FYI...Valpo was able to edge winless Evansville on Thursday and will play on Friday, as well).
The Bears hired Dana Ford as their head coach in 2018, after he was an unimpressive 57-65 in four years at Tennessee St. Not sure the school should have been too surprised with last year's 16-16 and not much has changed this season, either. The Bears are led by guard Cook (14.6 & 4.6) but the loss of PG Dixon (7.2-4.0-3.6) to season-ending shoulder surgery (last played Jan 11), has left the team with a shortage of quality perimeter players. The frontcourt is rotating five players, chipping in between 5.3 and 13.6 PPG. The top performers are 6-8 forwards Prim (13.6 & 4.8) and Da Silva (9.8 & 7.0).
Greg Lansing is in his 10th season as Indiana St's head coach. He burst onto the national scene as a rookie head coach with the Sycamore basketball program in 2010-11, as he became just the second-ever Indiana State head coach to lead the team to the NCAA Tournament in his first season (The first was Bill Hodges and the 1979 NCAA Final 4 team led by Larry Bird). However, he's never matched that success since. The Sycamores went to the CBI in his second season and then back-to-back NITs but ISU entered the current season off FIVE straight sub-.500 seasons. That's changed with this year's 18-11 team. This year's team owns an excellent guard duo in Key (15.8 & 4.7) and Barnes (12.6-3.7-3.7) and I think that gives them an edge in this tournament setting.
I can't think of SINGLE reason why a 15-16 team would be favored (at a neutral site) over an 18-11 team. Let me note that ISU opened 0-4, so that means the Sycamores are 18-7 their last 25 games. ISU's last loss was at home to tonight's opponent on Feb 16 (note: ISU won at Mo St on Feb 1), with the Sycamores winning FOUR in a row to end the regular season, after that defeat. ISU's winning streak began with a home upset of Northern Iowa (MVC's No. 1 seed) and also included TWO road wins. Any 'FREE' points are a bonus.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson -4 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 9 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on Davidson at 9:00 ET.
Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Will Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. The Rams returned all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley (no real loss). Bob McKillop is in his 31st season as Davidson's head coach and he's had quite a run (578-350 overall with nine NCAA teams entering the current season). His best-known team was the 2007-08 edition, when Steph Curry led the Wildcats into the Elite 8. Davidson came into this season off a 24-10 year, while returning all five starters. Both schools had high expectations but as they meet in the regular-season final for each, VCU is 18-12 (8-9 in A-10 play) and Davidson just 1`5-14 (9-8 in A-10).
Th 6-7 Santos-Silva (12.8 & 9.1) is VCU's top scorer and rebounder but starting guards Jenkins (10.7 & 4.2) and Evans (9.9) have each recently been sidelined. Jenkins because of a personal health matter(?) and Evans to an MCL knee sprain. Those losses partly explain the team's recent collapse, one in which VCU has gone 1-6 SU and ATS its last seven. VCU's lone double digit scorer now is Santos-Silva.
Davidson's season turned very early on, as the 6-6 Pritchett's knee injury saw him lost for the season before it started plus SG Frampton left for personal reasons after FIVE games. That's TWO of last year's five returning starters. PG Jon Axel Gudmundsson was the A-10s P-O-Y last season and is averaging 14.4-7.2-4.4. Fellow guard Grady led the team in scoring last season and has done so again this year, checking in at 17.1 & 4.2. The 6-10 Luka Drogkovic (10.3 & 4.9) is the third starter back from last season, while returning guard Collins (10.0 & 3.9) and a pair of freshman, round out Davidson's main contributors. The freshman are the 6-7 Lee (8.4 & 3.2) and guard Jones (5.7)
VCU's current slide began right after it won 73-62 at home over Davidson back on Feb 7. However, Jenkins and Evans played in that one (combining for 34 points) and NEITHER are available in this one. "Revenge" will be sweet for Davidson in this one, particularly for Gudmundsson, who scored just four points in the first meeting, making just ONE of eight FG. This marks Gudmundsson's final home game and I expect a big effort from him here, as the injury-riddled Rams go 'quietly.'
Good luck...Larry
|
03-06-20 |
Heat v. Pelicans -1.5 |
Top |
104-110 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 16 m |
Show
|
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NO Pelicans at 8:05 ET.
Zion Williamson has only played 17 games but he's already one of the league's marquee attractions, averaging 24.0 & 6.8 (is shooting 58.2% from the floor, including 41.7% on threes). However, the Pelicans are just 8-9 in Zion's 17 games, and welcome Miami to New Orleans on a three-game slide. The 26-26 Pelicans have fallen FIVE games back of the Wst's No. 8 seed (Memphis is 31-31), plus THREE teams are between the Pelicans and Grizzlies. The Miami Heat lost to Minnesota to open a five-game homestand but the Heat rebounded to win the next four games. The Heat are now 40-22 and own the No. 4 seed in the East, 2 1/2 games up on Philly and three up on Indiana last in the tightly bunched Eastern Conference playoff race (Miami is 2 1/2 games back of third-seeded Boston).
Miami's big offseason acquisition was swingman Jimmy Butler and he's delivered, posting a line of 20.3-6.8-6.7. However, the Heat would not be where they are without the emergence of the 6-9 Adebayo (16.1-10.5-5.0), as well as the surprising contributions of undrafted rookie guard Nunn (15.7) and 6-7 second-year player Robinson (13.0). Also, the late addition of SF Crowder (13.2 & 6.0 in 11 games) has proven to be an excellent move.
The Pelicans got a quality 'haul' from the Lakers in the A.D. trade in Ingram (24.6-6.2-4.3), Ball (12.7-6.2-7.0) and Hart (10.2 & 6.4). Williamson joins that trio plus Jrue Holiday (19.7-4.8-6.9) and a solid group of role players. However, the Pelicans have struggled defensively during their three-game slide, allowing 129.3 PPG (does include an OT loss to Dallas).
The Heat own one of the NBA's best home record (27-4) but it's NOT good news that they needed to drain a franchise-record 22 three-pointers to edge 27-35 Orlando just 116-113 on Wednesday. Miami opens a quick two-game road trip tonight in New Orleans, having lost SIX of its last seven road games (1-6 ATS, as well). The LONE win and cover in that span came at NBA-worst Golden St (14-49). Pelicans badly need to win here and Miami should play the perfect foil.
Good luck...Larry
|
03-05-20 |
76ers v. Kings -5 |
Top |
125-108 |
Loss |
-103 |
15 h 50 m |
Show
|
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET.
The Philadelphia 76ers own the best home record in the NBA at 28-2 but fell to 9-23 on the road with losses in the first two of their four-game trip, losing at Staples Center to the Clippers 136-130 on Sunday and to the Lakers 120-107 on Tuesday. Philly now takes a NINE-game road losing into Sacramento on Thursday to face a Kings team which has returned from the break to go 6-1 SU &ATS. The 76ers are losing touch with the top teams in the East but at 37-25, own the East's No. 6 seed, ( 1/2 games clear of the 7th-seeded Nets. As for the 27-34 Kings, they are in a virtual tie with the 28-35 Blazers, 3 1/2 games back of the West's No. 8 seed (Memphis). Lurking closely behind Sacramento are San Antonio and New Orleans.
Philadelphia is playing shorthanded on the trip with All-Stars Joel Embiid (23.3 & 11.8) and Ben Simmons (16.7-7.8-8.2) out with shoulder and back issues, respectively. What's more, SG Josh Richardson (13.9) sat out Tuesday with a concussion and is listed day-to-day. Sacramento is short two important big men in Holmes (13.1 & 8.5) and Bagley (14.2 & 7.5) but Sacramento in Tuesday's 133-126 win over Washington on Tuesday, SEVEN players scored in double figures, while the Kings shot 56.2 percent from the floor. PG De'Aaron Fox (20.4-4.0-6.7) and SG Buddy Hield (19.9-4.9-3.1) comprise a dominant backcourt, while SF Barnes (14.7 & 4.8), swingman Bogdanovich (14.4) and PF Bjelica (11.9 & 6.5) remain solid contributors. Let me also note that PF Harry Giles III (7.1 & 4.2) is averaging 14.5 points on 60 percent shooting over the last six games.
Philly is a current 'mess' away from home and comes into this game seriously, shorthanded (76ers are just 1-8 ATS during their nine-game road slide). The Kings squandered a 28-point lead before turning Washington away in a 133-126 final on Tuesday. Expect Sacramento to pull away for an easy win and cover in this one.
Good luck...Larry
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03-05-20 |
Oakland v. Green Bay -4 |
Top |
63-78 |
Win
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100 |
10 h 1 m |
Show
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My 10* Horizon League Tourney Game of the Year is on Wisconsin-Green Bay at 8:00 ET. The Horizon League tourney opened Tuesday and Oakland advanced with an 80-59 home win over Cleveland St. The now 14-18 Golden Grizzlies will travel to Green Bay to take on the 16-15 Phoenix, who earned the league's No. 3 seed by going 11-7 in league' play (Oakland was just 8-10). Oakland owns a excellent 'one-two punch' in guard Williams (19.8) and the 6-7 Hill-Mais (17.0 & 8.3). Williams, who didn't become eligible until mid-January, had 14 points in the win over Cleveland St, while Hill-Mais had a double-double (26 & 12). Oakland shot 49.1% at home, while Cleveland St made just 38.7%, including a woeful 2 of 11 on threes.
The Golden Grizzlies can't expect that kind of poor shooting here, as Green Bay is averaging 82.2 PPG (4-th best in the nation). Green Bay has excellent depth, as EIGHT players are seeing 15-plus minutes of "PT," led by PG McCloud (17.4-5.1-4.6) plus fellow guards Davis (15.8) and Hankerson (11.3). Green Bay was forced to play FIVE consecutive road games from Feb 6 through Feb 23, before ending the regular season with back-to-back home wins. The final stop on that five-game road trip was at Oakland, which 'escaped' with a 92-88 double-OT win over Green Bay. Some revenge and home cookin' gets Green Bay the win and cover, here!
Good luck...Larry
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03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -2.5 |
Top |
65-75 |
Win
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100 |
10 h 60 m |
Show
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My 10* MVC Tourney Game of the Year is on Drake at 7:00 ET. First Round play begins tonight in the MVC Tourney in St Louis. It's been dubbed "Arch Madness" but neither Illinois St (10-20 / 5-13) nor Drake (18-13 / 8-10) is expected to be around by the weekend. Dan Muller served for 12 years as an assistant coach at Vanderbilt University under head coach Kevin Stallings, whom he played for at Illinois State from in the late-90s. He was named head coach at his alma mater for the 2012-13 season and after SEVEN consecutive winning season (including a 28-7 record in 2016-17), his eight season will NOT end well (see above).
Darian DeVries played collegiately at Northern Iowa. He was named assistant coach at Creighton in 2001. He stayed with Creighton following the departure of Dana Altman and the hire of Greg McDermott but became a head coach for the first time when he accepted the job at former conference rival Drake in March 2018. The Bulldogs went 24-10 last season, including 12-6 in MVC play (T-1st) but they have not built on that success this season (again, see record above)
However, Drake is a MUCH better team than Illinois St and "at this price," is a STRONG play. SIX players have played in all 31 games (all have averaged 21-plus minutes), led by the 7-0 Robbins (13.8 & 6.9) and PG Penn (11.7-4.5-5.5), who was a Siena transfer who sat out last season. Guard Copeland (14.6) is the lone double digit scorer for the Redbirds, although FIVE more players chip in between 6.3 & 9.5 PPG. The best of that group is the team's lone frontcourt player of note, the 6-8 Fisher (9.5 & 5.9).
Drake was 2-10 on the road but did win TWO of three neutral-site contests. Meanwhile, not only was Illinois St 1-11 in true road games (lone win at Evansville which went 0-18 in the MVC) but the Redbirds lost all THREE neutral-site games as well. Drake owns the best big man on the floor (Robbins) plus a solid lead-guard in Penn. Drake may not survive a Friday meeting with the No. 2 seed (Loyola-Chi) but a victory gets them to 19 wins, with a chance for back-to-back 20-win seasons for the first time since winning 26, 21 and 22 games from 1969-71 (only 20-win season since 1970-71 was a 28-win season in 2007-08). Bulldogs are the play!
Good luck...Larry
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