Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-03-21 | Houston v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Game of the Year is on Baylor at 5:14 ET. Houston ended Oregon St's tourney run in the Elite 8, winning 67-61. The win over the Beavers gives Houston a 6-0 all-time record in the Elite Eight, the most wins without a loss by any program since the round began in 1951. However, NONE of the previous five Houston Final Four teams emerged with a national title. If Houston's luck were to change in 2021, the Cougars would become just the THIRD non-power 5 conference school to win the title since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (Louisville won a national title in 1986 playing out of the Metro Conference and UNLV won its lone national title in 1990 playing out of the Big West). Kelvin Sampson's Cougars won 27 games in 2018, 33 in 2019 and 23 in last year's pandemic-shortened season. His current team is 28-3 and has held its four NCAA opponents to just 55.8 PPG but in Baylor, Houston faces a team that averaged 85.3 PPG during the regular season (3rd) and led the nation in three-point accuracy at 42.9 percent. Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and had made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine) entering this season. Baylor won its first-ever Big 12 regular-season title this season, the first league championship since the Bears won the SWC regular season in 1950. This is Drew's ninth NCAA appearance with the Bears and Baylor reached the Sweet 16 for the FIFTH time in the last 12 years. The Elite 8 appearance was his third with Baylor and now it's his first Final Four appearance. Baylor opened the season No. 1 behind Baylor but COVID-19 nearly derailed Baylor's dream season, with the Bears being forced to pause for three weeks in February. A 17-0 record before the pause was quickly tarnished with a 13-point loss at Kansas in their second game back. Baylor then lost again in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament, but here the Bears are in the Final Four for just the THIRD time in school history (1948 and 1950). Houston enters Saturday's contest having won 11 consecutive games and last qualified for the Final Four in 1984 when it completed its third consecutive trip on the back of the famed "Phi Slama Jama" collection of superstar talent. The program fell into disrepair over the subsequent two decades but Kelvin Sampson has changed all that (see above). Junior guard Quentin Grimes (18.0 & 5.8) is the American Athletic Conference Co-Player of the Year and leads an offense that isn't prolific but is efficient. Sophomore guard Marcus Sasser averages 13.5 PPG plus senior guard DeJon Jarreau (10.8-5.5-4.4) is a terrific defender, who put the clamps on Buddy Boeheim (Syracuse) and Ethan Thompson.(Oregon St) in Houston's last two wins. 6-7 senior forward Justin Gorham (8.5 & 8.7) has a team-high eight double-doubles and averaged 9.5 & 10.0 against Syracuse and Oregon St. Baylor's strength is also the team's trio of guards, Jared Butler (16.5-3.3-4.8), MaCio Teague (15.9 & 4.1) and Davion Mitchell (14.1 & 5.3 APG). Jay Bilas called Mitchell is Baylor's most indispensable player. The 6-5 Vital (5.7 & 6.7) is also one of the nation's best defenders and has scored 10 points and added 13 rebounds in Baylor's Sweet 16 and Elite 8 wins. Flager (9.0) averaged 13.0 PPG in Baylor's last two tourney wins, while fellow guard Mayer (8.2) averaged 12.5 PPG in the team's first two wins. Let me go back to when I noted that Houston has held its four NCAA tourney opponents to just 55.7 PPG. Houston earned a No. 2 seed, so the Cougars opened against a No. 15 seed in Cleveland St. However, Houston then benefitted by drawing a 10-seed in Rutgers, an 11-seed in Syracuse and a 12-seed in Oregon St. NO team has ever had an easier route to a Final 4 since the advent of the 64-team field. Not counting the game vs Cleveland St, the Houston offense has managed just 63, 62 and 67 points in beating Rutgers, Syracuse and Oregon State. Baylor plays defense as well or better than that trio plus Baylor has faced 12 top-30 NET-ranked teams since January, compared to Houston's two. Since the opening of the season, it's been Gonzaga No. 1 and Baylor No. 2 in all but one AP weekly poll (Mar 1) and my bet says Baylor holds up its end for an anticipated championship game against the Bulldogs. Bears win by double digits. Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-21 | Braves -110 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Braves at 4:05 ET. It's true that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but the Braves are still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title. The Braves and Phils split 10 games last season and on Opening Day, Philadelphia shut down Atlanta's offense (Braves were held to just seven hits) at Citizens Bank Park in a 3-2 win. Taking the mound for Atlanta on Saturday will be Charlie Morton, while Philadelphia counters with Zack Wheeler. The Braves signed Charlie Morton to a one-year contract and hope that Morton can deliver like he did for Houston and Tampa Bay in recent seasons. He's a 14-year vet (37 years old) and he's expected to help stabilize the staff until ace Mike Soroka returns and provide leadership to a young, talented rotation. Zack Wheeler was the prized free-agent signee for Philadelphia in the offseason prior to 2020 and he finished 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. The Phils went 6-2 in his first eight stars but were winless in his last three with Wheeler posting a 4.05 ERA. The two pitchers had very different results this spring, as Morton did not allow a run in 10/1 innings during three appearances in the Grapefruit League, while Wheeler posted a 5.03 ERA in 19.2 innings. The Phillies fared poorly vs righthanders in 2020 (just 15-23 overall), while the Braves averaged 6.1 RPG vs righties over 48 games in 2020. I'm expecting Morton to help this Atlanta rotation and for the Braves' offense to bounce-back off a poor Opening Day effort. Good luck...Larry |
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04-03-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Division (AL East) Goin' Over Total is on Tor/NYY Over at 1:05 ET. The New York Yankees welcomed 10,850 fans back in the stands for Opening Day on Thursday but other than Gary Sanchez's two-run HR, there were NO offensive highlights, as the Yanks lost 3-2 (10 innings) to the Toronto Blue jays. Actually, that's an UNDERSTATEMENT, as New York struck out 13 times, went 0-9 with RISP and 3-for-19 with runners on. Toronto's Hyun-Jin Ryu allowed just two runs over 5.1 innings, before five Toronto relievers pitched 4.2 scoreless innings (allowed just two hits and had eight Ks). The teams didn't play Friday and Saturday's starting pitchers will be Ross Stripling and Corey Kluber. Stripling made five appearances (two starts) for Toronto last season after a trade from the Los Angeles Dodgers, going 0-2 with a 6.32 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in just 15.2 innings. He is 0-2 with 4.50 ERA in three career relief appearances against the Yankees. New York counters with Corey Kluber, who will make his debut for the Yankees after signing a one-year contract. Kluber won Cy Young awards in 2014 and 2017 with Cleveland but after a 20-7 (2.89 ERA) in 2018, Kluber's arm/shoulder issues have taken over. He made just seven starts (5.80 ERA / 1.65 WHIP) for Cleveland in 2019 and then pitched ONE inning for the Texas Rangers last season before injuring his shoulder. I fully expect the New York lineup to bounce back from Thursday's opener and will note that New York averaged 6.3 RPG in home games vs righthanders in 2020. The Blue Jays' home/away numbers are somewhat skewed by the fact that they couldn't play in Toronto but in 40 games vs righties, they averaged 5.2 RPG, including 5.6 RPG in 20 days games. What to expect from Kluber? Who really knows but the Blue Jays beefed up a young, talented team by adding several playoff-tested veterans in a busy offseason. George Springer (Houston) signed a team-record $150 million, six-year deal, and Marcus Semien (Oakland) joined on an $18 million, one-year deal. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-21 | Bucks v. Blazers +3 | Top | 127-109 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Por Blazers at 10:10 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks owned the NBA's best record the previous two seasons (60-22 and 56-17) but each year lost before reaching the NBA Finals. A FIVE-game losing streak (Feb 10-18) left the Bucks at just 16-13 and with many asking, "What's wrong with the Bucks?" Milwaukee answered its critics with 13 wins over 14 games from Feb 19-Mar 24, including EIGHT straight wins before a 122-144 Friday loss to the Celtics on Mar 26. However, a 102-96 loss to the Knicks followed on Saturday and a 129-105 at the Clippers on Monday made it THREE straight losses for the Bucks. Milwaukee did beat the LBJ and A.D.-less Lakers 112-97 on Wednesday but that's hardly a reason to 'celebrate.' 30-17 Milwaukee is THREE games back of the Nets (No. 1 seed) in the East and 2 1/2-games back of the 76ers (No. 2 seed), as the Bucks continue their six-game Western Conference tonight in Portland. The Bucks pounded Portland 134-106 back on Feb 1 in Milwaukee but the Blazers have gone 19-9 since that 'disaster.' Portland enters this contest with a 29-18 record and while that's only good enough for the West's No. 6 seed, the Blazers are just 1 1/2-games behind the LA Clippers, who currently hold down the No. 3 seed. Milwaukee's starting-five is intact and ALL average in double digits. Giannis (28.3-11.4-6.3) leads the way, followed by fellow forward Middleton (20.3-6.0-5.4), PG Holiday (16.4-4.5-5.2), center Lopez (11.0 & 6.8) and guard DiVincenzo (10.7-5.4-3.0). The 6-10 Portis (11.0 & 6.8) is currently sidelined but guards Forbes (9.4) and Connaughton (6.9 & 4.7) continue to contribute off the bench. Portland is led by PG Lillard (29.8-4.3-7.8) plus the Blazers will have a "new look" from the team that played the Bucks back in Milwaukee on Feb 1. SG McCollum (24.2-3.8-4.7) is back after a long absence and hasn't missed a beat, while center Nurkic (9.5 & 7.3) has been back the last three games, averaging 8.0 & 6.0). The Bucks sent Trent (15.0) to Toronto but got Powell (19.4 on the season) in return and he's averaged 16.3 PPG in his three games with the Blazers. Familiar to Milwaukee will be the ageless Anthony (13.9 PPG in playing 46 of 47 games) and veteran center Kanter (12.2 & 11.6), who more than 'held down the fort' with Nurkic sidelined. OK, the 'elephant' in the room is that the Bucks have won EIGHT of the last nine games against the Blazers. However, the Bucks have been "no-shows" too often for my taste this season, while Portland is back healthy and FULL of confidence coming off a 4-0 road trip. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-21 | White Sox +108 v. Angels | Top | 12-8 | Win | 108 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Chi White Sox at 9:38 ET. The LA Angels enter the 2021 season looking to end a streak of FIVE straight losing seasons (the franchise's longest skid since the 1970s) and SIX consecutive non-playoff campaigns. Most MLB fans would like to see Mike Trout finally get his FIRST playoff victory. He's earned the title of "MLB's best player" but he's been part of just ONE postseason series, with the Angels getting swept 3-0. The Angels opened the 2021 season last night with a 4-3 home win over the Chicago White Sox, who last year made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 and ended a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons, In 2021, the White Sox are hoping to bring home their first World Series championship since 2005 and only the second since 1917. The Angels scored two runs in the bottom of the eighth inning last night, turning a 3-2 deficit into a 4-3 win. Taking the mound tonight in the second contest of this four-game series will be a pair of lefties, Chicago's Dallas Keuchel (6-2, 1.99 ERA in 2020) and LA's Andrew Heaney (4-3, 4.66 ERA). Keuchel has had more success against the Angels than any other team, going 12-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 17 career starts (teams 1are 13-4). As for Heaney, he is 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA in five career starts vs the White Sox (teams are 4-1) but in his last two meetings with Chicago (both in 2019), he allowed 10 hits and seven ERs over 13 innings (4.85 ERA). However, here's the 'clincher.' The Angels were just 2-5 at home vs lefties in 2020 (1-4 in night games), averaging 3.4 PG. Meanwhile, the White Sox were PERCET 14-0 (averaging 7.1 RPG) in 2020. Keuchel over Heaney, who has dealt with injuries and inconsistency since coming from Miami in a three-team trade before the 2015 season, just seems to "make sense!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-02-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -4 | Top | 114-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Ind Pacers at 8:10 ET. The Charlotte Hornets entered the 2020-21 season off FOUR consecutive losing years, with the team's 23-42 (.354) record last season being the worst of their four-year playoff drought. However, the Hornet are currently 24-23 (.511), which puts them atop the Southeast Division, although they are in a virtual tie with the 25-24 (.510) Heat and just a half-game up on the 24-24 Hawks. Charlotte can claim to be the East' current No. 4 seed but let me point out that the Hornets are just 1 1/2-game ahead of the East's current No. 8 seed. The 45-28 Indiana Pacers earned the East's No. 4 seed in last year's playoff 'bubble' but got swept 4-0 by the Heat in the first round (note: Miami did reach the NBA Finals, before losing to the Lakers). It's been a season of stops-and-starts for Indiana all season this year, as the Pacers enter 21-25, as their winning percentage has fallen from .616 last season to .457 so far this season. Indiana is currently the East's No. 9 seed and the NBA's new playoff format guarantees only the top-six teams in each conference a playoff berth. The No. 7 thru No. 10 seeds will be involved in a "Play-In" format for the two final spots (7 & 8). The good news is, the Pacers are just 2 1/2 games back of the current 4th-seeded Hornets. Charlotte hardly resembled a playoff team Thursday night in a 111-89 road loss to the Brooklyn Nets, who played without James Harden. The Hornets are still adjusting to losing rookie sensation LaMelo Ball (15.9-5.9-6.1) to a broken wrist but Charlotte is 4-2 since Ball's injury. Boston 'refugees' Rozier (20.7-4.0-3.5) and Hayward (19.9-5.9-4.1) have led Charlotte in scoring all season, while PG Graham (14.0 & 5.2 APG) and PF Washington (11.8 & 6.6) also score in double digits. The Pacers enter off back-to-back losses, falling to 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games (hardly a good sign). That said, in PG Brogdon (21.2-4.8-64.9) and PF Sabonis (20.2-11.3-6.1) Indiana owns two All Stars. The Pacers also feature quality depth, as Caris LeVert is finally healthy and averaging 14,9-4.1-4.1 in his 10 games, while SF McDermott (13.4) & 3.8), center Turner (12.7-6.4-3.5 BPG), Justin Holiday (11.3) and Lamb (10.4) also score in double digits. The Hornets and Pacers split two games in late January in Charlotte. This contest marks Indiana's second home game during a stretch of four home games in a five-game span. The Pacers have too much talent to continue to play this poorly at home (8-13 on the season) and should be in a foul mood after being held to just FIVE points over the game's final six minutes of a 92-87 home loss to the Heat on Wednesday. Indiana wins "with room to spare" in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-21 | Giants v. Mariners +102 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 102 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. The Giants finished just ONE game out of a spot in the expanded playoffs during Gabe Kapler's first season after he replaced the retiring Bruce Bochy, who retired. San Francisco didn't make any major moves this offseason but will get Buster Posey back behind the plate after he opted out of the 2020 season. San Francisco re-signed Kevin Gausman (more in a bit) and added Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani and Aaron Sanchez to bolster the rotation. Kinda brings back memories of Glavive, Maddux and Smoltz. As for the Mariners, they believe they are on the cusp of playoff contention. Kyle Lewis is Seattle's first Rookie of the Year since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001 and combined with Gold Glove winners JP Crawford and Evan White, gives the Mariners a solid defensive foundation. The starting rotation has potential if Jim Paxton can rediscover his past form and if the Mariners may have a star in rookie Chris Flexen. Giants will start right-hander Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.62 ERA in 2020), while Seattle counters with left-hander Marco Gonzales (7-2, 3.11 ERA). As noted, the Giants re-signed Gausman and one wonders what they expect from him. He's made 203 big league appearances (164 starts) with a 50-66 record and 4.31 ERA. He's NEVER had a winning season in eight years. Meanwhile, Gonzales' 7-2 record in 2020, followed a 13-19 season in 2019. That gives him a .645 winning percentage (20-11) for a Seattle team that's gone just 95-127 (.428) in that span. I have NO faith in Gausman, while I believe Gonzales will win 15-plus games for the improved Mariners in 2021. Note that the Giants were just 5-1 vs lefties in road night games last season. Seattle wins "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-21 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Opening Day Game of the Year is on the Oakland A's at 10:07 ET. The Houston Astros won 100-plus each season from 2017-2019 (311-175, .649), going to two World Series and winning one (2017). However, the Astros were exposed before the start of the 2020 season with a "sign-stealing" scandal that cost the team's GM and manager their jobs. Of course, COVID delayed the start of last season until late July and with a shortened 60-game schedule and no fans, the scandal seemed to fade into the background behind greater concern. The Astros fell to 21-39 in 2020, having to rely on a bevy of talented young pitchers to carry them in a season when ace Justin Verlander made just one start. Houston lost George Springer to the Blue Jays (he signed a $150 million, six-year contract) but Altuve, Bregman and Correa are still around. Houston opens the season in Oakland, as it seeks to win its fourth AL West title in five seasons. The Oakland A's won the West with a 36-24 record (tied for the AL's second-best), earning their first division title in seven years. The A's also lost a key player to the Blue Jays, as SS Semien (33 HRs and 92 RBI in 2019) signed a one-year deal in Toronto. Speaking of young pitchers, Oakland's rotation is anchored by Montas, Manaea and Luzardo. Oakland also signed Trevor Rosenthal to take over as closer, hoping he returns to the form which saw him earn 93 saves for StL in 2014 and 2015. Houston ended Oakland's season with a 3-1 series win in the ALDS (Played in Los Angeles) but EIGHT of the teams' 10 regular-seasons meetings last year were held in Oakland. The A's took seven of the 10 en route to the AL West regular-season crown, as the Astros finished SEVEN games back. Note that all three Astros wins were in seven-inning affairs, as the teams played two doubleheaders, one in each city. Zack Greinke (3-3, 4.03 in 2020) and Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 ERA) get the Opening Day start. Greinke is 9-3 (3.16 ERA) in 18 career starts vs Oakland but his teams are just a modest 10-8. Bassitt has made nine career stats vs Houston, going 3-2 with a 3.91 ERA (team is 5-4). Looking at just last season, Greinke had a good first start against Oakland (6 IP and zero ERs in a no-decision) but in his last three, allowed 11 ERs over 15.2 innings for a 6.32 ERA. Bassitt made four starts vs Houston, going 1-1 (team was 2-2) but in the two wins (both in Oakland), he allowed just one ER in 14 innings. The A's outscored the Astros 38-25 in 10 regular season meetings but then faltered in the playoffs. Drawing the Astros to open the 2021 season has to have the A's poised to exact some revenge and jump start the new season. The A's were 22-10 (.688) at home last season, in line with the team's three-year home record of 130-70 (.650). The fact that the A's will be able to have fans at the Coliseum, with state rules allowing 20% capacity to start the season, can't hurt. Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-21 | Warriors v. Heat -2 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* East/West Game of the Month is on the Mia Heat at 8:10 ET. The Miami Heat surprised everyone, as after earning the East's No. 5 seed, beat Indiana (No. 4 seed) in a four-game sweep, Milwaukee (No. 1 seed) 4-1, Boston (No. 3 seed) 4-2 to reach the NBA Finals. The Heat then extended the Lakers (West's No. 1seed) to six games before. The Heat were an NBA-best 16-5 ATS in the 2020 postseason. However, it's been far from 'smooth sailing' in the 2020-21 season, as Miami just recently snapped a six-game slide with back-to-back wins over the Knicks (Monday) and the Pacers (Wednesday). The 24-24 Heat are back home to take on the Warriors and while they are just ONE game ahead of the East's No. 8 seed, they are also just ONE game behind the East's No. 4 seed. The Warriors fell to 15-50 last season, after FIVE straight trips to the NBA Finals (three titles). However, despite losing Klay Thompson before the start of the season, Golden St has 'hung in' the West's playoff race. Steph Curry (29.1-5.3-6.2) returned Monday after missing the previous five games with a bruised tailbone and he fueled the Warriors' 116-102 home victory over the Chicago Bulls. Curry finished with 32 points, ending Golden State's four-game slide. The 23-24 Warriors are currently two games back of the 8th-seeded Spurs, in a virtual tie with 22-23 Memphis. The West's No. 7-10 seeds will enter a "Play-In" format for the final two playoff spots (No. 7 and No. 8). PG Curry is joined by two solid producers in SF Wiggins (18.2 & 4.7) and SG Oubre (15.2 & 6.0) but No. 1 pick (No. 2 overall) Wiseman (11.8 & 5.9) has played just 33 of 47 games and has been erratic. Then there is Draymond Green (6.1-6,5-8.4) who can just be the Warriors' best player or worst 'nightmare' from game-to-game. Miami's Butler has been limited to 33 games but is healthy now and averaging 21.4-7.6-7.2. The 6-9 Adebayo (19.3-9.6-5.3) just keeps getting better and Herro (a breakout star in last year's Finals) checks in with 15.5 PPG and 5.2 RPG. SG Duncan Robinson (12.9 & 3.8) hasn't missed a game and veteran PG Dragic (13.5 & 4.3 APG) is also now healthy and playing. More good news comes in that two-time All-Star Victor Oladipo is expected to be on the court tonight. He had been dealing with a cold, which kept him from making his team debut this week during Miami's two-game road trip to New York and Indiana. The Heat acquired Oladipo in a March 25 trade with the Houston Rockets. Golden State begins a three-game trip to the East Coast with this game with the Heat but the Warriors are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time tonight in Miami. The Heat are healthier than they've been all season plus Miami regained a key component to its potential success these last two games, its defensive identity. The Heat held the Pacers to FIVE points over the game's final six minutes in a 92-87 comeback victory on Wednesday at the Pacers (Indiana was held to just 40.0% shooting for the game) and also held the Knicks to 88 points in a 10-point victory at New York on Monday, holding the Knicks to 41.3% shooting. The 'price' is sure 'right' in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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04-01-21 | Braves +105 v. Phillies | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Delight is on the Atl Braves at 3:05 ET. It's fair to say that the rest of the NL East has improved themselves entering 2021 but aren't the Braves still favored to win their FOURTH straight NL East title? Atlanta bolstered its pitching rotation by signing veterans Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly to one-year contracts and when Mike Soroka (a 13-game winner and All-Star in 2019) is fully recovered, the rotation could be one of baseball's best. Max Fried was fifth in NL Cy Young Award balloting, while Anderson also has the makings of a future ace after a stellar rookie season. The offense is led by MVP Freeman and Ozuna providing a powerful 1-2 punch in the middle of the lineup. Meanwhile, the Phillies are seeking their first winning season since 2011, with hopes of ending a NINE-year postseason drought. Everyone returns everyone in the starting lineup and Nola and Wheeler are a formidable 1-2 punch atop the rotation but overall, the rotation has little depth. Then there's the team's bullpen, dismal bullpen and its 7.06 ERA. Many additions have been made in that regard and things have to get better, as it couldn't get worse. Max Fried is making his first Opening Day start for Atlanta, coming off a 2020 season in which he went 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA in 11 starts (Braves were 10-1). Aaron Nola will make his FOURTH consecutive Opening Day start for the host Philadelphia Phillies, the most by a Philadelphia pitcher since Hall of Famer Steve Carlton took the mound for 10 openers in a row from 1977-86. Nola was 7-5 with a 3.28 ERA in 12 starts in 202 (Phils were 5-7 in his starts). Fried has made five career starts vs Philly and is 3-1 but owns a 5.40 ERA (Braves are 4-1). However, note that he made two starts against them last season, allowing just one ER in 10 innings for an 0.90 ERA. He beat Nola 11-2 in one of those starts, as Nola allowed four ERs in just 2.3 innings. Nola is 11-6 (3.05 ERA) in 20 career starts vs the Braves, with Phily going 12-8. The Braves came within one win of the World Series, taking a 3-1 lead in the NLCS before the Dodgers rallied to win the last three games. That bitter disappointment has only strengthened the Braves' resolve this season and I'm backing them here on Opening Day behind Fried, who started 16 games for Atlanta last season (including the playoffs), with the Braves going 14-2!! Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-21 | Kings v. Spurs -2 | Top | 106-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 8:40 ET. The Sacramento Kings and the San Antonio Spurs square off at the AT&T Center on Wednesday night. The teams met Monday in San Antonio with the Kings routing the Spurs 132-115. All five Sacramento starters scored in double digits as the team shot 56.0% overall, including 18 of 36 on threes. Three-point shooting was the difference in the game, as the Spurs shot an impressive 50.5% for the game but was a much more modest 10 of 27 from beyond the arc. The Kings have won SEVEN of eight (6-2 ATS) and are now 22-25, leaving them just ONE game back of the Warriors, who currently own the 10th seed (7-10 seeds enter the "Play-In" format for the West's final two playoff positions). The Spurs are 23-21 (current No. 8 seed) but in contrast to the Kings, the Spurs have lost FIVE of their last six. Most troubling is that the Spurs have NOT been able to take advantage of a current NINE-game homestand (Spurs have opened 1-4 with four games to go). Sacramento rookie Tyrese Haliburton has moved into the starting lineup recently and is now averaging 13.2 & 5.0 APG on the season. Along with PG Fox (24.8 & 7.2 APG) and SG Hield (16.7 & 4.6), the Kings own an impressive backcourt trio. SF Barnes (15.7 & 6.5) was mentioned as trade 'bait, but was not moved. It's not good news that the 6-11 Bagley (13.9 & 7.4) is out until mid-April but the 6-10 Holmes (14.4 & 9.0) is vastly underrated. Sacramento added SFs Davis (Tor) and Harkless (Mia) at the trade deadline and in their second games with the Kings (Monday), scored 14 and 13 points, respectively. Aldridge (13.7 & 4.5) has left San Antonio for 'greener pastures' with the Nets but the Spurs are still a deep team. Of the five starters and top-two reserves vs the Kings on Monday, SIX are averaging in double digits. DeRozan (20.4-4.4-7.2), Murray (15.7-7.0-5.3), Johnson (13.3 & 6.4) and White 13.2 are in double figures, with only center Poeltl (7.7 & 7.8) below 10 PPG. Guard Mills (12.8) and SF Gay (10.8 & 4.9) add double digits off the bench plus when healthy, Walker usually starts and chips in 11.5 PPG. Walkers hasn't played since March 22 (wrist) but is expected to play tonight. Is it time to make the claim, '"Break up the Kings?" There is little doubt that Sacramento is playing better basketball right now than San Antonio but if only it were that easy to pick NBA winners. Is this the year in which Sacramento ends its streak of 14 consecutive losing and non-playoff seasons? Maybe, but in this quick turnaround situation I'll back the Spurs, as I expect Pop's team to find a way to sneak a way into this season's playoffs, after seeing the team's run of 22 straight playoff appearances end during last year's pandemic-shortened season. The oddsmakers seem to agree, as after getting blasted by 17 points on Monday, the Spurs are again about a two-point favorite in tonight's game. Good luck...Larry |
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03-31-21 | Heat -1.5 v. Pacers | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 7:10 ET. The Miami Heat swept the Indiana Pacers in last season's first round of the playoffs but the Pacers have beaten the Heat in two previous meetings this season March 19 and 21). Miami visits Indiana Wednesday night after snapping a SIX-game losing streak on Monday. The Pacers had gone through a 2-8 stretch when they shot "lights out" in a 137-110 win at Miami on March 19 and two nights later, the Pacers won at Miami again, this time prevailing 109-106 in OT. Those wins started what became a 4-1 Pacers run that was halted on Monday night in a 132-124 loss to the Wizards. The NBA's new playoff format guarantees only the top-six teams in each conference a playoff berth. The No. 7 thru No. 10 seeds will be involved in a "Play-In" format for the two final spots (7 & 8). Right now, Miami is 23-24 (8th) and Indiana 21-24 (9th). However, we should note that the 4th-seeded Hornets are just 2 1/2 games ahead of Miami, meaning they are just 3 1/2 games ahead of Indiana. Miami is still playing without Nunn (13.5) but the remainder of its key players, although most have missed to-plus games, are currently active. Butler (21.5-7.7-7.3) and Adebayo (19.4-9.6-4.3) are All Star-quality performers plus guards Herro (15.5-5.3-3.6), Dragic (13.5 & 4.8 APG) and Robinson (12.7 & 3.7) make up a very good trio. PG Brogdon (21.5-4.7-6.0) and PF Sabonis (20.4-11.3-6.1) are Indiana's two stars but the Pacers feature quality depth. Caris LeVert is finally healthy and averaging 15.0-4.4-39 in his nine games, while SF McDermott (13.4), center Turner (12.7 & 6.4), Justin Holiday (11.5 & 3.8) and Lamb (10.8) also score in double digits. Aaron Holiday averages 6.7 PPG) and McConnell 7.2 & 6.5 APG. McDermott (right-ankle injury) is expected back after he sat out the Wizards game. Lamb's return from injury has also helped, as he's played in 28 games this season since tearing his ACL last February. The Pacers just recently beat the Heat on Mar 19 and 21 in Miami but have opened as a small home dog. Maybe that's because the Pacers are just 8-12 SU at home this season but it's also because the Pacers are only 4-12 ATS their last 16 games. A little "revenge motive" for Miami also plays into the mix! Good luck...Larry |
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03-30-21 | Hawks v. Suns -6.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Pho Suns at 10:10 ET. The Atlanta Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce on March 1 and replaced him with assistant coach Nate McMillan. The veteran NBA coach quickly turned the Hawks into the 'Utah Jazz,' as Atlanta has won EIGHT straight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Hawks opened an eight-game road trip by beating the Lakers at Staples Center (for their 8th straight win) but THREE losses in their next four games followed. The 23-23 Hawks still have three games remaining in their two-week road trip, starting with a visit to Phoenix on Tuesday night. The Suns went 8-0 SU & ATS in last year's 'bubble' but still missed the playoffs for the 10th consecutive season. That will change this season, as Phoenix is 31-14, giving them the West's second-best record. PG Trae Young (25.6 & 9.4 APG) has led the Hawks all season. There was talk of moving PF Collins (18.4 & 7.8) at the trade deadline but he stayed put and scored a career-high 38 points in Friday's win. Center Capela, who averages a double-double (14.6 & 14.1) on the season and SG Huerter (11.6-3.5-3.5), have been mainstays. On the injury front, SF Reddish (11.2 & 4.0) has missed 20 games (last played Feb 21), as he's being held out of the lineup with a right Achilles injury and it is unclear how long he will be sidelined. However, PF Hunter (16.0 & 5.1) returned for two games for the first time since Jan 29 on March 22nd & 24th but Hunter missed his second straight game with right knee soreness on Sunday. The team is taking a cautious approach with Hunter since he returned from missing 23 games following surgery on his right knee. The Hawks will have veteran guard Lou Williams (12.1 PPG in 42 contests with the Clippers) available on Tuesday after being acquired at the trade deadline from the Clippers. The Suns' major offseason acquisition was getting PG Chris Paul but also added SF Jae Crowder. Paul (16.0-4.7-8.5) has been terrific, while Crowder (10.0 & 5.0) has missed just three games, starting 27 of 42. Center Ayton (14.8 & 11.0) and SF Bridges (13.4 & 4.9) have both played in ALL 45 games this season. Then, there is Devin Booker, who averages 25.1-4.1-4.6. The Suns of Mike D'Antoni were known for their fast-paced style (See the book ":07 Seconds of Less") but Monty Williams' team is allowing just 107.0 PPG (3rd) on 45.4% shooting (7th), including 34.1% on threes (2nd). The Hawks are coming to the end of a two-week long road trip and this visit to Phoenix is a tough stop. The Suns own the NBA's top pointspread mark (30-15) and add another 'cover' in this one. Lay it! Good luck...Larry |
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03-30-21 | 76ers v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Nuggets at 10:10 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers own the East's best record (32-14) but the Nets have closed within a half-game of them at 32-15 (Bucks are three games back). After one game with Aaron Gordon in the mix, it looks like the Denver Nuggets made a smart move in acquiring the young forward. The Sixers are 10-2 in March as they visit Pepsi Center on Tuesday to take on the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets have won 11 of 14 to reach 28-18, tying them with the Portland Trail Blazers. Denver and Portland are each 1 1/2-games back of the Lakers (West's No. 4 seed) but SEVEN games back of the West's No. 1 seed Utah (35-11). The Sixers have stayed atop the Eastern Conference despite not having Joel Embiid for most of the month. Embiid (29.9 & 11.5) was having an MVP-caliber season before a bone bruise in his left knee has sidelined him for the past eight games. He's likely to miss Tuesday's game. Philly had a four-game winning streak snapped Saturday night at the Los Angeles Clippers (lost 122-112), the fourth of a six-game road trip, which concludes with this game and finishes in Cleveland on Thursday night. Philly's regular starting-five includes Embiid, Harris (20.9 & 7.6), Simmons (15.9-7.9-7.7), Curry (12.9) and Green (9.7 & 3.6). A trio of guards add depth on the perimeter in Milton (13.8), Korkmaz (8.9) and Maxey (7.3) plus veteran center Howard (6.7 & 8.1). Denver's been led all season by its two breakout stars, center Jokic (26.9-11.1-8.5) and PG Murray (21.0-3.9-4.9). The 6-10 Porter (16.3 & 7.4) has developed into a quality small forward. Denver just acquired Aaron Gordon (14.4-6.6-4.2) from Orlando and Javale McGee (8.0 & 5.2) from Cleveland to give their frontcourt even more depth. Gordon scored 13 points on 6-for-9 shooting in 21 minutes in his first game for Denver on Sunday. Veteran PF Millsap (9.7 & 5.1) is back healthy, while the 6-8 Green (8.8 & 5.4) and the 6-6 Dozier (7.3 & 3.7) have been very solid off the bench up front. Swingman Barton (12.5-4.1-3.0) missed the end of last season with an injury but has played in 43 of 46 games this season. Tough spot here for Philly up against a Denver team that REALLY improved itself with the additions of Gordon and McGee. The Nuggets are primed to make a move in the West with SEVEN of their next nine games here at Pepsi Center. Nuggets win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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03-29-21 | Bucks v. Clippers +0.5 | Top | 105-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the LA Clippers at 10:10 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks owned the NBA's best record the previous two seasons (60-22 and 56-17) but each year lost before reaching the NBA Finals. A FIVE-game losing streak (Feb 10-18) left the Bucks at just 16-13 and with many asking, "What's wrong with the Bucks?" Milwaukee answered its critics with 13 wins over 14 games from Feb 19-Mar 24, including EIGHT straight wins before a 122-144 Friday loss to the Celtics on Mar 26. However, a 102--96 loss to the Knicks followed on Saturday. The Clippers got Kawhi back for their Saturday game at home vs the 76ers and they beat the team with the East's best record, 122-112. Kawhi led the way with 28 points, as the Clippers won for the FIFTH straight time. The 31-16 Clippers own the West's No. 3 seed (one game ahead of the Lakers), one game back of the Suns but four back of the Jazz, who own the NBA's best record at 34-11. Milwaukee's starting-five (when healthy) consists of Antetokounmpo (28.3-11.5-6.4),. Middleton (20.5-61-5.4), Holiday (15.9-4.4-5.1), Lopez (11.4 & 5.2) and DiVincenzo (10.7-5.4-3.0). The 6-10 Portis (11.0 & 6.8) plus guards Forbes (9.4) and Connaughton (7.0 & 4,7) have been regular contributors off the bench, as well as fill-in starters. Here's the latest update. Antetokounmpo was one of four starters to miss Saturday's 102-96 home loss to the New York Knicks but he's expected to play here. Khris Middleton (hip), Jrue Holiday (knee) and Donte DiVincenzo (foot) also are slated to be back in the lineup. We'll see. However, key reserves P.J. Tucker (calf) and Bobby Portis (health and safety protocols) have been ruled out. The Clippers have been playing short-handed, with big man Serge Ibaka (back), swingman Marcus Morris Sr. (calf) and PG Patrick Beverley (knee) injured. However, getting Kawhi (26.0-6.3-4.8) to team with George (22.5-6.3-5.5) is a pretty big deal. LA's depth has proven VERY valuable during the team's 5-0 SU & ATS run, as Jackson has averaged 12.4 PPG in March, filling in nicely for Beverley. Swingman Batum (8.6 & 4.8) has been solid all season (he's now coming off the bench) plus note what these three Clippers have done lately. Kennard is averaging 9.9 PPG his last eight, the 7-0 Zubac is averaging 11.7 & 9.1 the last seven games and Mann is averaging 15.4 PPG in LA's five-game winning streak. Milwaukee posted a 105-100 home win over Los Angeles on Feb 28, when Giannis Antetokounmpo recorded 36 points, 14 rebounds, five assists and four blocked shots. A little revenge motive between top-tier teams never hurts but while this game opens a stretch of six straight road games and nine of 10 for Milwaukee, the Clippers get set to play just the second contest of NINE straight games at Staples Center (don't look over your shoulders Suns and Jazz!). The Clippers were undervalued vs the 76ers and are again here vs the Bucks. Good luck...Larry |
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03-29-21 | Pelicans v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 7:35 ET. New Orleans forwards Zion Williamson (26.3 & 7.0) and Brandon Ingram (23.8-5.0-4.6) are creating serious headaches for opposing teams on a regular basis but New Orleans remains a modest 20-25 on the season. The playoff structure this season has Seeds 1 through 6 entering the playoffs, while Seeds 7 through 10 will enter a "Play-In' format (Google for details, if interested). The Pelicans are currently 1 1/2-games back of the 10th-seeded Warriors. Led by the trio of Tatum, Brown and Walker, the Boston Celtics were expected to be among the East's top-contenders, battling Milwaukee, Miami, Philadelphia and maybe Brooklyn (would the KD/Irving duo work?). Boston opened 8-3 (even though Walker was sidelined) but the team's early success did not last. As the Celtics welcome the Pelicans to TD Garden, Boston is just 23-23 and tied with the Hawks for the final guaranteed spot (No. 6 seed) in the East. Boston can hardly even 'see' the East's No. 1 team (76wes), who are NINE games up on the Celtics. more in a bit. Zion Williamson is routinely accomplishing feats that link him to NBA legends, as he has scored more than 20 points in 23 consecutive games, making him the only player younger than 21 to do so. The Pelicans received quite a 'haul' from the Lakers in the A.D. trade, as along with Ingram]m, New Orleans got starting PG Lonzo Ball (14.2-4.2-5.6) and 6-5 SG Josh Hart, who comes off the bench to average 9.0 PPG and an impressive 7.0 RPG. Guard Bledsoe (11.4-3.4-3.8) and center Adams (8.0 & 9.0) were both acquired in trades just prior to the start of the season. Boston used a HUGE fourth quarter to beat the Thunder 111-94 at OKC on Saturday, which followed an impressive 122-114 victory in Milwaukee on Friday, as Boston concluded a four-game trip on a winning note. Tatum (25.1-6.8-4.5), Brown (24.5-6.8-4.4) and Walker (18.0-3.5-4.6) have having strong seasons, plus Smart (12.9 & 4.5 APG), the team's best perimeter defender and a team leader, has been back on the court since the All Star break. Boston expects big things from Fournier (19.7), who they just got from Orlando but he sat out the last game while enrolled in the NBA's health and safety protocols. It is uncertain if he will take the court against the Pelicans on Monday. Big Man Thompson (7.9 & 8.4) is also in the NBA's health and safety protocols and hasn't played since March 14. The 6-8 Robert Williams (7.7 & 6.6) is seeing more minutes lately and Thompson hasn't really been missed. Look back over New Orleans's main contributors (see above) and you'll ask the same question I have. How does a team with this roster remain a sub-.500 team? The answer is simply stated by Bill Parcells' famous quote, "You are what your record says you are!" Is it possible that Boston WON'T remember its first game against the Pelicans this season? Williamson had 28 points and 10 rebounds to support Brandon Ingram's 33 points in a 120-115 overtime victory over the visiting Celtics back on Feb 21. New Orleans overcame a 24-point deficit for the largest comeback win in franchise history. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7 | Top | 61-67 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* signature 37-Club is on Houston at 7:15 ET. No one should have been surprised by what Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, after successful stops at Washington St, Oklahoma and Indiana. His first Houston team went 13-19 (2014-15) but FIVE straight 20-win seasons followed. The Cougars won 27 (2017-18) and 33 (2018-19) games, before going 23-8 in last season's pandemic shortened one. Houston took another step forward this season by winning the AAC tourney with a blowout 91-54 victory over Cincinnati, after losing the previous two seasons in the title game to the Bearcats. 24-3 Houston entered the "Big Dance" ranked No. 6 in the nation (AP poll) while earning a No. 2 seed. The Cougars are now playing for a chance to advance to the Final 4 for the first time since making THREE consecutive appearances from 1982-84 when it reached its pinnacle under coach Guy Lewis. Standing in Houston's way is the Pac 12's Oregon St Beavers, the lowest-seed (No. 12) left among Elite 8 teams. Oregon State head coach Wayne Tinkle lost his son Tres (18.5 & 6.8) and center Kelley (11.1 PPG / 5.3 RPG / 3.5 BPG) from last year's team and not much was expected from the Beavers. Oregon St was just 11-11 (7-9 in Pac 12) by late-February but the Beavers won three straight on the road (at Cal, Stanford and Utah), before losing their regular season finale to Oregon, which avenged an earlier loss at home to Oregon St. Oregon St then beat UCLA, Oregon and Colorado (all as underdogs) to win the Pac 12 tourney and advance to the NCAA tournament as a No. 12 seed. THREE straight wins (all as underdogs) over No. 5 Tennessee, No. 4 Oklahoma St and No. 8 Loyola-Chicago have followed in the "Big Dance," as the Ducks have reached the Elite 8 for the first time since the 1982 team did so (that appearance was later vacated). Oregon State last reached the Final Four in 1963! OSU is led by guard Thompson (15.9-3.9-3.8) and fellow guard Lucas (12.9) is the only other double digit scorer. That duo is joined in the starting lineup by fellow guard Reichle (7.4) plus up front by the 6-7 Alatishe (9.6 & 8.7) and the 7-1 Silva (5.7 & 2.9). Thompson has averaged 20.3 & 7.0 and Lucas 12.3 in the Ducks' three NCAA wins, Up front, Alatishe has averaged just 6.7 PPG but also 10.7 RPG, while Silva has upped his game to average 9.0 & 6.7 in the Big Dance. The 6-10 Calloo (5.5 & 2.3 on the season), scored 15 points vs Loyola and is averaging 9.0 PPG in OSU's three NCAA wins. A trio of Houston guards lead the way in Grimes (18.0 & 6.0), Sasser (13.3) and Jarreau (10.8-5.4-4.3), while freshman Mark (8.2 & 3.1) adds depth. The best frontcourt player is the 6-7 Gorham (8.6 & 8.6). However, Houston has won with its defense, allowing 57.6 PPG during the regular season, on 37.0% shooting, including 27.4% on threes. Grimes was the American Athletic Conference Co-Player of the Year, guard Jarreau (Defensive Player of the Year) and forward Gorham (Most Improved Player). Houston has benefited from a fortunate draw, opening with a No. 15 seed (Cleveland St), then drawing No. 10 Rutgers and No. 11 Syracuse. Now, it's the 12th-seed Beavers, although Oregon St hardly is playing like a double digit seed this tourney (same with UCLA). That said, Houston will be the first team ever to play four double-digit seeds in a single tournament. Then again, a team meets the opponent which advances. That Houston defense has been DOMINANT, allowing its three opponents to average only 54.0 PPG on 36.8% shooting, including 33.3% on threes. Just ask Jim Boeheim about Houston's D. Syracuse came in off back-to-back wins in which the Orange had shot 53.5% overall (50.0% on threes) but was 14-50 (28.0%), including 5-23 (21,7%) on threes against the Cougars. Oregon St enters this game off SIX consecutive upset wins (obviously, 6-0 ATS) but the Beavers' run ENDs here, as Houston wins "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-21 | Oregon +2 v. USC | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Sweet 16 Game of the Year is on Oregon at 9:45 ET. The Pac-12 has been the 2021 NCAA tournament's best conference, by far. Five schools got Big Dance invites and FOUR made the Sweet 16. Pac 12 tourney winner Oregon St won again on Saturday and has become just the second No. 12 seed to reach the Elite 8 since seeding began back in 1979. UCLA (an 11-seed) has a tough matchup with No. 2 Alabama but at least TWO Pac 12 schools will advance to the Elite 8 as sixth-seeded USC (24-7) and seventh-seeded Oregon (21-6) will meet in a Sweet 16 game in the West Region on Saturday night in Indianapolis, The teams met just once in the regular season (another game didn't get played due to COVID-19 issues within the Ducks program) with the Trojans dominating 72-58 back on Feb 22 in Los Angeles. That was Oregon's only loss in its final 11 regular-season games, as the Ducks won the Pac 12's regular season title with a 14-4 record (USC was 15-5). Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon had played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). Oregon's back in the "Big Dance" again this season, advancing past the first round when VCU dropped out due to COVID-19 positive tests but then routed second-seeded Iowa 95-80 (shot 55.9% and assisted on 25 of 38 baskets). The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers is averaging 16.7 & 5.3. The 6-6 Figueroa transferred from St John's and adds 12.6 & 6.2 and the 6-6 Eric Williams (10.3 & 6.0) transferred from Duquesne. That trio gives Oregon a strong frontcourt, even with 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8) suffering a torn ACL in mid-December (out for the season). 6-8 guard Duarte (17.0 & 4,6) was voted the Pac-12's player of the year and is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaged 11.7-3.5-3.9 PPG in 15 games. Only Williams didn't score in double digits against Iowa, with Duarte leading the way with 23 points. Figueroa has been Oregon's best postseason player (three games), averaging 18.7 & 4.7, with Omoruyi adding 15.3 & 5.0. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season before the shut down. USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season but here the Trojans are in the Sweet 16 with a 24-6 record. Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. All Evan Mobley has done is average 16.5 & 8.8. He joined his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who has added 9.5 & 7.7. Peterson is a 6-8 swingman from Rice who averages 9.8 & 5.0 plus guards Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St round out the starting-five. Eaddy averages 13.5 PPG and White 7.3. Guard Anderson (6.1) and the 6-9 Goodwin (6.0 & 3.6) contribute off the bench. Evan Mobley is averaging 19.8 & 10.5 and his brother Isaiah 12.8 & 6.3 in USC's four postseason games, while Eaddy (11.3-4.5-5.3) and Peterson (10.3 & 5.) have surely done their share. I respect Enfield but Altman has just so much more experience. USC is playing in its first Sweet 16 since 2007, while Oregon has now reached the Sweet 16 in FOUR of the past five tournaments. In this battle of top-tier Pac 12 opponents, its Oregon which goes from 'Sweet' to 'Elite." Take any points available. Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-21 | Hawks v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 102-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider of the Month is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. The Atlanta Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce on March 1 and replaced him with assistant coach Nate McMillan. The veteran NBA coach quickly turned the Hawks into the 'Utah Jazz,' as Atlanta has won EIGHT straight while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Hawks opened an eight-game road trip by beating the Lakers at Staples Center (for their 8th straight win) but then lost to the Clippers (also at Staples) and to the Kings in Sacramento. However, Atlanta rebounded Friday night with a 124-108 in San Francisco over the slumping Warriors. 23-22 Atlanta continues its eight-game road trek tonight in Denver against the Nuggets, who have won 10 of 13 to get to 27-18 (tied with Portland). Both the Nuggets and Blazers are just 1 1/2-games back of the Lakers, who continue to play without LBJ and A.D. PG Trae Young (25.7-4.0-9.5) has led the Hawks all season. There was talk of moving PF Collins (18.6 & 7.90 at the trade deadline but he stayed put and scored a career-high 38 points in Friday's win. Center Capela, who averages a double-double (14.7 & 14.3) on the season and SG Huerter (121.7-3.6-3.6), have been mainstays. On the injury front, SF Reddish (11.2 & 4.0) has missed 16 games (last played Feb 21), as he's being held out of the lineup with a right Achilles injury and it is unclear how long he will be sidelined. However, PF Hunter (16.0 & 5.1) returned the last two games for the first time since Jan 29 but while he played 28 minutes on Friday, he was 1 of 9 from the floor in scoring five points. It's GREAT news for Atlanta that he's back but he'll need time to get back in the groove. Speaking of GREAT news, an already deep Denver team just added forward Aaron Gordon (14.6 & 6.6) from the Magic and swapped centers with Cleveland, getting JaVale McGee (8.0 & 5.2) for his second tour with the franchise in exchange for Isaiah Hartenstein and two future second-round selections. Denver's been led all season by its two breakout stars, center Jokic (27.2-11.1-8.6) and PG Murray (21.1-3.9-5.0). The 6-10 Porter (16.3 & 7.3) has developed into a quality small forward. Denver just acquired Aaron Gordon (14.4-6.6-4.2) from Orlando and Javale McGee (8.0 & 5.2) from Cleveland to give their frontcourt even more depth. Veteran PF Millsap (9.7 & 5.1) is back healthy and starting, while the 6-8 Green (8.5 & 5.3) and the 6-6 Dozier (7.5 & 3.8) have been very solid off the bench up front. Swingman Barton (12.5-4.0-3.0) missed the end of last season with an injury but has played in 42 of 45 games this season. The Hawks beat Denver 123-115 in Atlanta back on Feb 21 but winning at Pepsi Center will be tough. The Nuggets are playing well (won of 13) and just added two key pieces in Gordon and McGee, who are both available to play tonight. This contest begins a stretch in which Denver will play NINE of its next 12 games at home, with the Nuggets VERY capable of moving up in the West standings during this span. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-21 | UCLA v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 88-78 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Alabama at 7:15 ET. Mick Cronin coached at Cincinnati for 13 seasons, leading the Bearcats to the "Big Dance" in each of his last nine years, while averaging 26.1 wins per season in that span. His first year as UCLA's head coach ended 19-12 when the season was shut down last March). UCLA made its 50th NCAA tournament (owns 11 NCAA titles but all but one came back in the John Wooden era with 10 wins in a 12-year span from 1964 to 1975. UCLA played in the First Four rallied from a 14-point deficit to eke past Michigan State to enter the field of 64 as an 11th-seed. The Bruins then beat BYU (No. 6 seed) 73-62 and easily took down No. 14 seed Abilene Christian (off its upset of No. 3 Texas) 67-47. Nate Oats was 96-43 at Buffalo, leading the Bulls to three NCAA tourneys in his four years, including going 27-9 and 32-4 in his last two seasons. He was hired to revive the Alabama program but the Crimson Tide went just 16-16 last season. However, Alabama finished No. 5 in the AP's final regular season poll, after winning the SEC's regular-season title and the SEC tournament crown for the first time since 1991. Alabama is in its first Sweet 16 since 2004 and is one victory away from equaling the Crimson Tide's most successful NCAA Tournament run-ever (that 2004 squad is currently the lone team in school history to reach the Elite Eight). UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Jan 30 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging in double digits. PG Campbell (10.1 & 5.4 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Zuzang (15.1 & 4.1), the 6-6 Jaquez (12.1 & 6.1) and the 6-6 Bernard (10.4 & 5.0). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.0 & 5.4) up front. UCLA's guard trio of Zuzang (23.3), Jaquez (16.7) and Bernard (11.0 & 6.7) have had quite a three-game NCAA tourney run. Alabama also has an excellent guard trio in Shackelford (14.3 & 3.8), Quinerly (12.7) and Petty (12.5 & 5.2). Up front, 6-8 senior Jones (11.3-6.5-3,3) was named SEC p-o-y and Defensive p.o.y. plus 6-10 senior Bruner adds 5.7 & 4.0. Guards Primo (8.2 & 3.4) and Ellis (5.3 & 3.9) plus the 6-9 Reese (5.5 & 3.1) add depth. Quinerly (14.4-3.2-4.4) in the SEC and NCAA tourneys, followed by Shackelford (13.4) and Jones (13.4 & 8.6). After the Bruins allowed 44 first-half points against Michigan State, they held MSU to 33 points, before winning in OT. They've then held BYU and Abilene Christian to 62 and 47 points, respectively. Making the Bruins' tourney run more surprising, is that they lost FOUR straight games to Pac-12 foes prior to barely making it into the 68-team field. UCLA entered the NCAA tourney 3-111 ATS and is now 3-0 SU & ATS. My bet says the Bruins 'run out of steam' against this formidable Alabama team. Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Florida St at 5:00 ET. NINE Big Ten teams made the 68-team NCAA Tournament field but only 22-4 Michigan (one four, No. 1 seeds) is left. The Wolverines have advanced with wins over Texas Southern (82-66) and LSU (86-78), despite not having the services of 6-7 senior Isaiah Livers (13.1 & 6.0), who has missed the last three games with a stress fracture in his right foot that occurred in a Big Ten tournament quarterfinal win over Maryland on March 12. Waiting for Michigan is 18-6 Florida St (No. 4 seed), which has advanced with wins over UNC-Greensboro (64-54) and Colorado (71-53). FSU's leading scorer MJ Walker (12.3) has had ankle issues in the first two games, averaging just 8.8 PPG. However, the Seminoles are plenty deep. The 6-8 Gray (12.0 & 6.5), 6-9 freshman Barnes (10.4-4.1-4.1)and guard Polite (10.2 & 4.5) join Walker in double digits. The 7-1 Koprivica (9.2 & 5.7), guards Calhoun (5.5) and Evans (5.2) plus the 6-9 Osborne (5.7 & 4.5) give head coach Leonard Hamilton plenty of options. Polite (12.3) has led the team in the postseason and Koprivica (11.5 & 7.5) is playing the best ball of his season. Gray (10.5 & 4.8) and Barnes (10.5-3.5-3.3) have been steady as usual. Michigan's 7-1 freshman Dickinson (14.2 & 7.5) has made an immediate impact from Game 1 plus four guards give Michigan a strong perimeter group. That group includes Wagner (12.8 & 6.3), Brooks (9.7-3.2-3.0), Smith (9.3 & 5.4 APG) and Brown (7.9). Without Livers out in the postseason, Brooks (15.0-4.5-4.0), Dickinson (13.8 & 6.5), Smith (12.8 & 7.5 APG) and Wagner (12.0 & 6.5) are all averaging 12-plus points. Also, the 6-8 Johns (4.5 & 2.2 in the regular season) has upped his performance in four postseason games, averaging 8.0 & 3.8. Michigan's Juwan Howard's first season as head coach saw his team open 7-0, then go 6-9 over its next 15 games. A six-game win streak followed but Michigan lost three of four before the shutdown (19-11 finish). His 'sophomore' year has been impressive, even with the program being shut down due to COVID protocols from Jan 23 through Feb 13. As for Florida St head coach Leonard Hamilton, he has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that has produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools, behind only Duke and Virginia since 2016. The Seminoles were 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic last year. Could this year "be the year?" A win here puts them ONE win away from the Final Four. That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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03-28-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* NIT Game of the Year is on Memphis at 12:00 ET. Ben Howland made a name for himself in a four-year run at Pitt in which his 2002 and 2003 teams made Sweet 16 appearances. He moved to UV+CLA for the 2003-4 season and in his third season at Westwood, began a run of three straight Final Four appearances. However, despite a .685 winning percentage in 10 years at UCLA (four Pac-12 conference titles and those three consecutive Final Fours), he developed a reputation for coaching a boring brand of basketball. He was fired and caught on at Miss St. His teams had won 20-plus games the previous three seasons at Starkville but this year's team finished 8-10 in the SEC and 15-14 overall, after losing to Alabama in the SEC tourney. However, the Bulldogs have won three straight in the NIT over a No. 1 seed (St Louis), a No. 2 seed (Richmond) and a No. 4 seed (La Tech) to reach Sunday's championship game. Waiting for Miss St will be another No. 1 seed, Memphis (19-8). Penny Hardaway returned to coach his alma mater for the 2018-19 season going 22-14 in his 'rookie' season. The Tigers were 21-10 when last season was shut down and this year's team finished third in the AAC behind Wichita St and Houston, both of whom earned NCAA bids. Houston beat Memphis just 76-74 in the AAC and note that Cougars have advanced to the NCAA's Elite 8. Penny was an offensive start in college and the NBA but he is a 'defense-first' head coach, as Memphis ended the regular season allowing 62.3 PPG (19th) on 38.4% shooting (4th), including 26.8% on threes (2nd). Its defensive play hasn't let up in five tourney games (two in the ACC and three in the NIT). More in a bit. Howland lost his four best players from last season in the 6-10 Reggie Perry (17.4 & 10.1), plus guards Tyson Carter (13.9), Robert Woodard (11.4 & 6.5) and Nick Weatherspoon (11.6-3.5-4.1). Leading the way for the Bulldogs this season have been guards Molinar (17.0) and Stewart (16.4-3.3-3.1) with the only other player averaging more than 6.0 PPG is the 6-10 Smith (12.6 & 8.5). However, Smith was hurt in the St Louis game (NIT 1st Round) and hasn't played since. He is tending to an undefined ailment and it is unknown if he will suit up for the NIT championship game. Miss St was fine without him vs La Tech, shooting 55.8% as a team, including 10-of 20 on threes. Molinar had 25 and Stewart 23 in yesterday's game, while 6-9 freshman Fountain (5.3 & 2.9 on the season) added 15 points and six rebounds. Memphis lost center James Wiseman after just three games last season and PF Achiuwa (15.8 & 10.8) after the season (both are now in the NBA as 1st round picks). 6-7 Va Tech transfer Nolley, leads the Tigers in scoring (13.3 & 4.1) and he's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-9 Williams (11.7-5.9-3.6, guards Ellis (9.7) and Quinones (9.6 & 5.4) plus 6-10 center Cisse (6,6 & 6.3). Coming off the bench is the 6-7 Jeffries (9.7 & 5.1). Nolley had 27 points in Saturday's win, Williams added 21 & 19 and Quinones had 18 points. Memphis shot 55.7% as a team, including 14 of 27 on threes. Both teams are off terrific offensive games but I'm backing Memphis because of its defense. I note the Tigers' regular season number above plus in five tourney games, Memphis allowed Houston to score 76 but has held its other four opponents to 61,3 PPG. Memphis State was the name of the school when Penny Hardaway was a star player there in the early 1990s but in 1994 the school changed its name to the University of Memphis. However, Hardaway has had his players wearing "Memphis State" on their jerseys for the past couple of weeks and it seems to be working. Paraphrasing Spike Lee, "It must be the jerseys!" Good luck...Larry |
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03-27-21 | 76ers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 10:10 ET. The streaking Philadelphia 76ers have won 10 of their last 11 games and are a perfect 3-0 so far on their six-game road trip. 32-13 Philadelphia is looking to hold off Brooklyn (1 1/2-games back) and Milwaukee (2 1/2-games back) atop the East, as those three teams have separated themselves from the rest of the conference. The 76ers are in LA tonight to play the Clippers, who have won FOUR in a row to reach 30-16. The Clips currently own the West's No. 3 seed, one game ahead of the Lakers. They are one game back of the Suns and four back of the Jazz, owners of the NBA's best overall record at 33-11. Philly's regular starting-five are Embiid (29.9 & 11.5), Harris (20.7 & 7.6), Simmons (15.9-8.0-7.7), Curry (13.1) and Green (9.6 & 3.7). However, Embiid (a legitimate MVP candidate), has been out since March 12 after suffering a left ankle sprain against the Washington Wizards. However, the 76ers are 6-1 without Embiid these last seven games. "Everybody is playing confident basketball," Philadelphia guard Seth Curry said. "We're first and foremost playing good defense as a team. That's pretty much there every night for us on the defensive end. And offensively, everybody's involved." Ben Simmons has been the catalyst for Philadelphia, getting everyone involved on offense and setting the tone defensively. During the month of March, Simmons is shooting 51 percent from the floor, averaging 15.6 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.0 assists a contest. A trio of guards add depth on the perimeter in Milton (13.8), Korkmaz (9.1) and Maxey (7.3) plus veteran center Howard (6.6 & 5.5) has played in all 45 games. The Clippers will be playing short-handed, with big man Serge Ibaka (back), swingman Marcus Morris Sr. (calf), PG Patrick Beverley (knee) and Kawhi Leonard (foot) all questionable to play against Philadelphia. The Clippers had only nine healthy players available in Thursday's win on the road against the San Antonio Spurs but Paul George (22.4-6.2-5.4) picked up the slack, finishing with 24 points and 13 rebounds as the Clippers swept the Spurs in back-to-back games at San Antonio. PG Rajon Rondo came in a Thursday trade but is also is a question mark for Saturday with an abductor strain. Naturally, the key is will Kawhi (25.9-6.3-4.8) play? I've got a feeling that with Doc Rivers facing his former team for the first time since being relieved of his duties last year, he will. That said, I'm on LA either way. Jackson has averaged 12.4 PPG in March (28 points the last game), filling in nicely for Beverley. Swingman Batum (8.7 & 4.7) has been solid all season (he's now coming off the bench) plus note what these three Clippers have done lately. Kennard is averaging 10.9 PPG his last seven, the 7-0 Zubac is averaging 12.5 & 8.8 the last six games and Mann is averaging 13.5 PPG in LA's four-game winning streak. This marks the first of NINE straight home games for the Clippers, who could really make a run at Jazz in this stretch. Winning this first game against the 76ers could just set the tone for these next 16 days when the Clippers play nine games at Staples Center. "Fingers crossed" on Kawhi's status. Good luck...Larry |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts +11.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Oral Roberts at 7:25 ET. Paul Mills came to Oral Roberts four years ago and in his first three seasons his Golden Eagles were hardly 'golden,' going 39-56. However, Oral Roberts won the Summit League Tournament as the No. 4 seed and then upset second-seed Ohio St 75-72 on Friday. It marked just the NINTH time a 15th seed had knocked off a No. 2 seed and the first since Middle Tennessee's victory over Michigan State in 2016. Oral Roberts then beat seventh-seeded Florida 81-78, becoming only the second No. 15 seed to advance to the Sweet 16. Waiting for Oral Roberts is Arkansas, a No. 3 seed. Eric Musselman had a forgettable three-year stint as Golden State's head coach (108-138 / zero playoff appearances) but he had quite a run coaching Nevada, capturing the CBI title in his first season, then winning 28, 29 and 29 games making the "Big Dance' in each of his final three seasons. He was 20-12 last season (1st at Arkansas) and this year Arkansas comes in 24-6, after beating Colgate 85-68 and edging Texas Tech 68-66. ORU is led by guard Abmas, who not only leads ORU in scoring but his 24.5 PPG leads the entire nation. "Mr Inside" to Abmas' "Mr Outside" is the 6-8 Obanor (19.0 & 9.6), Abmas scored 29 vs Ohio St and then 26 vs Florida, while Obanor has posted games of 30 and 11 and 28 & 11. One could argue that the duo has been the tourney's best 1-2 'punch' in the tourney so far. Guard RJ Glasper (11.0) was ORU's best backcourt player but he was lost for the season back in early Feb. Thompson (8.6 & 3.6) and Jurgens (5.7) are the best the team has in support of Abmas, without Glasper. Arkansas features four double-digit scorers in 6-6 freshman Moody (17.1 & 5.8) plus guards Notae (13.1) and Tate (11.5-3.8-43.8). The 6-9 Smith (13.9 & 7.1) is a graduate transfer from Indiana and is the team's top frontcourt player. Guards Davis *7.8) and Sills (7.8) have both been regular contributors. Jaylin Williams, a 6-foot-10 forward, started in Arkansas' win over Texas Tech, marking the first time he was in the starting lineup with Moody and Davis this season. Williams scored only one point, but collected 10 rebounds as he started in place of 7-3 center Connor Vanover (6.3 & 4.5), as Musselman went with a smaller, quicker lineup. Smith led Arkansas with 20 points while Moody and Davis each had 15 points. Smith has averaged 24.5 & 9.5 and Davis 13.5 & 6.90 in the Razorbacks' two NCAA wins. This is game between two high-scoring teams, as Arkansas averaged 83.3 PPG and ORU 82.0 PPG in the regular season. In fact, the schools are not strangers, as Arkansas won 87-76 at home back on Dec 20. Let me note that Oral Roberts was able to stay within 11 points at Arkansas, so why can't the Golden Eagles do say again here on a neutral floor? Confidence us running high for ORU after wins over Ohio St and Florida, so just maybe the Golden Eagles can become the first-ever 15-seed to each the Elite 8. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-27-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -7 | Top | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on Baylor at 5:15 ET. Baylor opened the season No. 2 behind Gonzaga and remained there in opening 18-0. The Bears lost their first game of the season 71-58 at Kansas on Feb 27, playing just their SECOND game since Feb 2. Baylor would finish the regular season 21-1 (13-1 in the Big 12), winning their first-ever Big 12 regular-season title and first league championship since they won the SWC regular season in 1950. Baylor lost to Okla St in the Big 12 semis but has certainly shown it was more than deserving of a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, routing Hartford 79-55 and then handled ninth-seeded Wisconsin 76-63, as its suffocating defense forced 14 turnovers against a methodical Wisconsin offense. Baylor's challenge will be more daunting against fifth-seeded Villanova in the Sweet 16. The Wildcats' season was disrupted by COVID and were shocked in the Big East tourney in a one-point loss to Georgetown (Hoyas were a six-point underdog). Despite losing co-Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie (14.0-3.3-4.6 to a torn MCL, Villanova (18-6) has responded with two strong performances in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats downed Winthrop 73-63 and then 84-61 over North Texas. The 6-9 Robinson-Earl (16.0 & 8.3) leads in scoring and the 6-7 Samuels (11.9 & 6.5) have both "come up big" in Villanova's two wins. Robinson-Earl has averaged 20.0-8.5-6.0 and Samuels (13.0 & 8.0). There is little doubt that 'Nova misses Gillespie, as Arcidiacono has started for Gillespie and in two games, has points. Regular backcourt starters Moore (12.8 -4.1-3.0) and Daniels (9,9) have averaged 15.0 and 10.5 PPG, respectively in 'Nova's two tourney wins. Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) from last year's team but the strength of Baylor's team this season is centered around its guards. Butler (16.9-3.3-4.8) is the best of Baylor's guards but don't look past Teague (16.1 & 4.1), Mitchell (14.1 & 5.4 APG), Flagler (8.7) or Mayer (8.3). The 6-5 Vital (5.7 & 6.7) plays like a power forward and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 6.4 & 5.1 plus the 6-10 Thamba adds 3.6 & 4.0. Butler had a poor first game and Teague a poor second game. Mitchell's been the most steady, averaging 14.0 PPG on 11 of 19 shooting. Villanova head coach Jay Wright has won two national championships and holds a 30-12 overall mark in the NCAA Tournament with this program. However, I'm backing Scott Drew's Baylor team. He took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and had made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine) entering this season. This his his ninth NCAA appearance with the Bears and marks Baylor's fifth Sweet 16 appearance in the last 12 years. Yes, Villanova owns two solid wins but remember Winthrop plays in the Big South and North Texas in the Sun Belt. Baylor's 2-0 ATS in its two wins but has yet to play its "A-game." That comes here! Good luck...Larry |
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03-27-21 | Memphis -4 v. Colorado State | Top | 90-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Memphis at 12:00 ET. The Memphis Tigers and the Colorado State Rams and meet Saturday in NIT semifinal action from Comerica Center in Frisco, Tx. The Tigers advanced with a 59-56 win Thursday over Boise St, while Colorado St turned a three-point halftime deficit into a 65-61 win over NC State. Penny Hardaway returned to coach his alma mater for the 2018-18 season going 22-14 in his 'rookie' season. The Tigers were 21-10 when last season was shut down and this year's team is now 18-8. Niko Medved spent four years at Furman and one at Drake, and had an overall record of 79-87 when Colorado St tabbed him as its next head coach. He went 12-20 in his first season but turned things around by going 20-12 last season. CSU lost the 6-11 Carvacho (12.9 & 10.8) but four starters returned and the Rams enter this game at 20-6. Memphis lost center James Wiseman after just three games last season and PF Achiuwa (15.8 & 10.8) after the season (both are now in the NBA as 1st round picks). Memphis finished 3rd in the AAC's (11-4) regular season and after beating UCF, took Houston to the wire before losing 69-67 in the AAC tourney. Memphis has added two wins in the NIT over Dayton and Boise St. 6-7 Va Tech transfer Nolley, leads the Tigers in scoring (12.7 & 4.0) and he's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-9 Williams (11.2-5.7-3.4, guards Ellis (9.9) and Quinones (9.3 & 5.5) plus 6-10 center Cisse (6,7 & 6.3). Coming off the bench is the 6-7 Jeffries (9.7 & 5.0). PG Stevens led all CSU scorers last season and is averaging 15.2-4.4-5.4 this season, right behind fellow guard Roddy (16.1), who is also the team's leading rebounder (9.5). Guard Moore (10.7) is the team's third double-digit scorer, while the 6-6 Thistlewood (9.4 & 3.8), 6-10 freshman Moors (6.1 & 3.7) and the 6-9 Thomas (5.8 & 4.3) are the best frontcourt players Colorado State has been consistent all season and the team hasn’t lost consecutive games all year. However, Memphis has been on a pointspread tear, with Thursday's ATS loss being only the team's SECOND in its 15 games. Memphis ended the regular season allowing 62.3 PPG (19th) on 38.4% shooting (4th), including 26.8% on threes (2nd) and its defensive play hasn't let up in four tourney games (two in the ACC and two in the NIT). Memphis allowed Houston to score 76 pints in a two-point loss (note: Cougars are a No. 2 seed and own a 26-3 record), while holding their other three opponents to just 59.3 PPG. Colorado St is a solid team but the Rams are NOT the Cougars! Memphis is headed to the NIT championship game with a double-digit win. Good luck...Larry |
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03-26-21 | Cavs v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 86-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Bailout Blowout is on the LA Lakers at 10:40 ET. The Lakers are trying to find their way without superstars Anthony Davis (calf) and LeBron James (ankle) and are back on the Staples Center court tonight after a 109-101 home loss last night to the Philadelphia 76ers, LA's FOURTH in a row. The Cleveland Cavaliers just traded JaVale McGee (8.0 & 5.2) to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, while Andre Drummond (17.5 & 13.5) reportedly is waiting on a contract buyout that will make him a free agent. Drummond has not played since Feb 12 and has been linked to both the Lakers and the New York Knicks. The Cavaliers visit LA having managed to win THREE of their last five games, despite all of their recent upheaval. They are coming off a 103-94 road victory over the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday, when Darius Garland (16.6 & 5.9 APG had 22 points. Leading scorer Collin Sexton (24.0 & 4.3) did not play Wednesday after experiencing right hamstring soreness in the morning shootaround, but the injury is not believed to be serious. Center Jarrett Allen, acquired from the Brooklyn Nets in January, has averaged 14.4 points and 11.6 rebounds in 17 games since Drummond last saw action, slightly above his season numbers of 13.1 points and 9.9 rebounds per game. The Lakers' four-game losing streak started last Saturday when LBJ (25.4-7.9-7.9) was injured in a home loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Kyle Kuzma had 25 points for the Lakers on Thursday, while Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell added 20 each. The Lakers trailed by as many as 18 points in the fourth quarter but pulled within a single possession in the final minute, before the comeback fell short. The offseason acquisitions of PG Schroder (15.1-3.5-4.8) and PF Harrell (14.8 & 6.6) were excellent additions plus I continue to maintain that Kuzma (12.4 & 6.7) is significantly underrated. However, here's the bottom line. The Lakers are going to have to figure out a way to win games over the coming weeks after coach Frank Vogel said Thursday that AD's (22..5 & 8.4) return is "still a ways away." The Lakers were the subject of some rumors at Thursday's NBA trade deadline but the team never made a move. Only the top six teams in each conference advance straight to the playoffs this season, as the teams in positions seven through 10 will need to participate in a play-in tournament for the final two playoff spots. The Lakers are currently fourth in the Western Conference (28-17), just 1-1/2 games ahead of both the Denver Nuggets and the Portland Trail Blazers (26-18). The defending champion Lakers could use victories anywhere on the schedule they can get them and my bet says this is a game where a "W" should be expected. LA wins "with room to spare!' Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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03-26-21 | Pacers v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 109-94 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dal Mavs at 8:40 ET. The 45-28 Indiana Pacers were the East's No. 4 seed entering last year's playoffs but got swept 4-0 by the Miami Heat, which made it all the way to the NBA Finals before losing 4-2 to the Lakers. The Pacers hovered around .500 through mid-February but a four-game skid from Feb 24-Mar dropped them to 15-18 and three wins in their last four games still leaves them three-games under .500 at 20-23. The 7-10 seeds will enter a 'Play-In' format for the East's seventh and eighth seeds, so the Pacers are 'living on the edge' by owning the current No. 9 seed (2 1/2 games clear of the dreaded 11th-seed). Dallas was expected to be a solid playoff contender this season (broke a three-season playoff drought by going 43-32 last season) but that wasn't the case through the season's early going. The Mavericks lost SIX straight from the end of January into the beginning of February to fall to 8-13. However, Dallas finally got its full complement of players back and currently sits 23-19, after winning 15 of its last 21. Dallas holds the No. 7 seed but is just two games back of Denver and Portland (26-18), who share the 5th and 6th seeds. PG Brogdon (21.4-4.7-6.0) and PF Sabonis (20.2-11.2-6.2) are having excellent seasons. While Brogdon (16 points) and Sabonis (14 points / 11 rebounds) were key contributors in Wednesday's 116-111 win over the Pistons, Caris LeVert recorded his best performance since being acquired in the blockbuster deal that sent James Harden to Brooklyn in January. LeVert scored 15 of his team-high 28 points in the second quarter and in seven games has averaged 16.7-4.3-4.0. SG Lamb's return from injury has also helped, as he's averaged 10.9 PPG in his 26 games back since tearing his ACL last February. The Mavs won 128-108 at Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, capping a 2-1 three-game road trip for Dallas, which will embark on a five-game trek after its brief pit stop at home tonight vs Indiana. The duo of Doncic (28.6-8.3-9.1) and Porzingis (20.0 & 8.6) leads the way for the Mavs but the Mavs have excellent depth, led by swingman Hardaway, who is averaging 16.5 PPG (19 starts in his 41 games). Porzingis collected 27 points and 13 rebounds plus Luka Doncic added a triple-double (13-12-12) in Dallas' 124-112 victory at Indiana back on Jan. 20, game in which the Mavericks played without Dorian Finney-Smith (8.4 & 5.3), Maxi Kleber (7.8 & 5.4), Dwight Powell (4.8 & 3.4) and Josh Richardson (13.2) because of COVID-19 protocols. All FOUR of those players are available tonight, so don't expect 'revenge' to work here for Indiana. After all, the Pacers 'limp' into this contest just 3-11 ATS (a 79% "go-against") in their last 14 games. Good luck...Larry |
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03-26-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 113-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on the Den Nuggets at 8:05 ET. New Orleans forwards Zion Williamson (25.7 & 7.0) and Brandon Ingram (24.7-5.1-4.7) are creating serious headaches for opposing teams on a regular basis but New Orleans remains a modest 19-24 on the season. The playoff structure this season has Seeds 1 through 6 entering the playoffs, while Seeds 7 through 10 will enter a "Play-In' format (Google for details, if interested). Williamson and Ingram each scored 30 points to lead the visiting Pelicans to a 113-108 victory over the Denver Nuggets last Sunday and tonight, the Nuggets visit New Orleans for a rematch. The Nuggets bounced back from the loss to New Orleans to win 110-99 at Orlando on Tuesday for their ninth win in 11 games but then lost 135-111 at Toronto on Wednesday, their most lopsided loss of the season. Denver is currently 26-18, leaving them tied with Portland for the West's fifth-best record. Denver's been led all season by its two breakout stars, center Jokic (27.0-11.3-8.5) and PG Murray (21.1-4.0-4.8). The 6-10 Porter (16.0 & 7.4) has developed into a quality small forward. Denver just acquired Aaron Gordon (14.4-6.6-4.2) from Orlando and Javale McGee (8.0 & 5.2) from Cleveland to give their frontcourt even more depth. Veteran PF Millsap (9.5 & 5.0) is back healthy and starting, while the 6-8 Green (8.7 & 5.4) and the 6-6 Dozier (7.7 & 3.7) have been very solid off the bench up front. Swingman Barton (12.7-4.1-3.1) missed the end of last season with an injury but has played in 41 of 44 games this season. Williamson enters this game with 21st consecutive games with at least 20 points, the longest ever for an NBA player who has yet to turn 21 years old, which he will do in July. Ingram came from the Lakers in the A.D. along with Lonzo Ball (14.2-4.2-5.6) and Hart (9.1 & 7.6). Not a bad haul. Bledsoe (11.3-3.4-3.7), who was acquired right before the start of the season, guard Alexander-Walker (9.2) and starting center Adams (8.1 & 9.2) round put the main contributors. On paper, the Pelicans sure look like a team that should be MUCH better than its current record. However, quoting Bill Parcells, "You are what your record says you are!" Denver's 135-111 loss at Toronto on Wednesday was not just its most lopsided loss of the season but also ended a SIX-game road winning streak. With Sunday's home loss to the Pelicans last Sunday still fresh in their minds, expect the Nuggets to win here, as the Pelicans continue to underachieve. Good luck...Larry |
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03-25-21 | Warriors v. Kings -2.5 | Top | 119-141 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Pacific) is on the Sac Kings at 10:10 ET. The Golden St Warriors were an NBA-worst 15-50 last season but have been more competitive than expected this season but injuries continue to throw 'roadblocks' in their way. The Warriors were 19-15 through Feb 26 but head to Sacramento having lost SEVEN of 10 to fall to 22-22. Golden St currently finds itself as the West's No. 10 seed, the last of the four 'Play In' spots. The Kings welcome the Warriors to Golden 1 Center tonight off a 110-108 win over the Hawks. However, the Kings are just 19-25 and THREE games back of the Warriors. The Kings last made the playoffs back in the 2005-06 season. Golden St PG Stephen Curry (29.0-5.3-6.2) has been ruled out of the next three contests due to a bruised tailbone and the Warriors are 1-4 in the five games he's missed this season. Forward Paschall (9.5 & 3.2) will also miss tonight's game. Wiggins (17.7 & 4.6) and Oubre (15.1 & 5.9) have both been very good for the Warriors but without Curry, it's hard to back them. The good news is that the team's No. 1 pick (2nd overall) James Wiseman was immediately promoted into a starting role upon returning from a three-game, COVID-related absence to play Tuesday in Golden State's 108-98 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers (note: it was just his second start since Jan 23). Head coach Steve Kerr announced before the contest that Wiseman (11.8 & 5.9) would be his team's full-time starting center moving forward. "It was good to see him out there," Kerr said after the defeat. "He's going to get better and better as we go. He had a week off ... he needs his rhythm, and that will come." Speaking of No. 1 picks, Sacramento's Tyrese Haliburton (chosen 10 picks after Wiseman) made his FIFTH consecutive start in last night's 110-108 over Atlanta. The Kings have won FOUR of those five games, with Haliburton (12.8-3.4-5.1 on the season) scoring 17 or more points in three of those victories, including 17 on Wednesday. He joins a backcourt rotation that already features Fox (24.1-3.4-7.3), who is coming off his third-best scoring night of the season with 37 points vs Atlanta, and Hield (16.8-4.6-3.3). Up front, SF Barnes (16.1 & 6.6) has been mentioned as trade 'bait,' while the 6-11 Bagley (13.9 & 7.4) is out until mid-April. The 6-10 Holmes (14.0 & 8.8) is vastly underrated and with Bagley sidelined, Whiteside added eight points and 12 rebounds last night. Remember, Whiteside averaged a double-double in SIX straight years from the 2014-15 through the 2019-20 seasons! Sacramento is on a 4-1 SU & ATS run (lone loss at Philly, the East's best team) and knows a win here closes them within two games of the Warriors, who won't get Curry back for at least a couple games. The Kings may also remember losing back on Jan 4 in San Francisco 137-106 when the Warriors shot 52.6%, including going 23 of 43 from three-point range. Curry had 30 points in that om]ne and Paschall addec14 & 7. Neither will be available tonight. The Kings make it a 5-1 SU &ATS run with a win and cover tonight. Good luck...Larry |
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03-25-21 | Boise State v. Memphis -4 | Top | 56-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My NIT 10* 2nd Rnd Game of the Year is on Memphis at 9:00 ET. The 19-8 Boise State Broncos and the 17-8 Memphis Tigers square off in the NIT at UNT Coliseum (Denton, Tx) on Thursday night. Boise's Leon Rice is in his 11th season with the Broncos and has produced EIGHT seasons of 20-plus wins through his first 10 seasons, meaning a "W" here makes it NINE sessions of 20-plus wins. Penny Hardaway returned to coach his alma mater for the 2018-18 season going 22-14 in his 'rookie' season. The Tigers were 21-10 when last season was shut down and this year's team is 17-8. The Broncos opened 13-1 (9-0 in MWC) but lost their final three regular season games and then their first game in the MWC tourney. Boise St lost its 2nd-leading scorer and 2nd-leading rebounder in the 6-7 Abu Kigab (11.8 & 5.4) to a shoulder injury plus guard Rice (5.9) as well. However, eked out an 85-84 win over SMU to reach the NIT quarterfinals. 6-9 guard Alston (17.3) has led Boise in scoring all season and was joined in double figure scoring by the other four starters vs SMU. The 6-10 Armus (8.0 & 7.9) had 18 points and 10 rebounds, while guards Akot (8.7) had 17-6-9 and Shaver (10.6 & 4,5) had 13 points. Guard Doutrive (8.8) had 10 points. Memphis lost center James Wiseman after just three games last season and PF Achiuwa (15.8 & 10.8) after the season (both are now in the NBA as 1st round picks). Memphis finished 3rd in the AAC's (11-4) regular season and after beating UCF, took Houston to the wire before losing 69-67. Memphis opened the NIT with a 71-60 win over Dayton. 6-7 Va Tech transfer Nolley, leads the Tigers in scoring (12.9 & 4.0) and he's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-9 Williams (11.3 & 5.8), guards Ellis (9.9) and Quinones (9.2 & 5.4) plus 6-10 center Cisse (7.0 & 6.5). Coming off the bench is the 6-7 Jeffries (9.6 & 5.0). Nolley (21 & 6) was great vs Dayton plus Quinones scored all 15 of his points in the second half, as Memphis outscored the Flyers 44-32! Quinones also had 10 rebounds, while Williams added 12 points with Jeffries coming up with 10 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists off the bench. Penny was an exciting offensive player in college and in the NBA but he's a defense-first head coach. He EXPECTS his team to be one of the nation's top defensive teams. Memphis enters having allowed 62.3 PPG (19th) on 38.4% shooting (4th), including 26.8% on threes (2nd). Memphis enters this game 13-1 ATS in its last 14 games, which is 93% ATS. That's good enough for me. Good luck...Larry |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State +1.5 | Top | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Colorado St at 7:00 ET. The 14-10 NC State Wolfpack and the 19-6 Colorado State Rams meet Thursday at the Comerica Center (Frisco, Tx) in a quarterfinal matchup. NC State beat Davidson 75-61 in its first game of the tourney, while Colorado edged Buffalo 75-73. Kevin Keatts took over at NC State for Mark Gottfried beginning in the 2017-18 season, after leading UNC-Wilmington to 25-8 and 29-6 records in his final two seasons (both teams earned NCAA tourney bids). He won 21, 24 and 20 games his first three seasons in Raleigh but the current season has been a struggle. NC State lost leading scorer Bryce (13.3 & 6.3) plus PG Johnson (12.8-4.4-6.8) from last year's team and lost Devon Daniels (16.5-5.2-3.3) for the season after 12 games. Niko Medved spent four years at Furman and one at Drake, and had an overall record of 79-87 when Colorado St tabbed him as its next head coach. He went 12-20 in his first season but turned things around by going 20-12 last season. CSU lost the 6-11 Carvacho (12.9 & 10.8) but four starters returned. Without Daniels, four NC St guards have chipped in modest totals by averaging between 5.3 and 7.9 PPG. A trio of frontcourt players have carried most of the 'load,' in the 6-7 Hellems (12.8 & 5.1), the 6-10 Funderburk (12.6 & 5.5) and the 6-11 Bates (9.7 & 5.9). Against Davidson, Funderburk had 21 & 7, Bates 14 & 8 and Hellems 13 & 4. PG Stevens led all CSU scorers last season and comes in averaging 15.0-4.6-5.5 this season, right behind fellow guard Roddy (15.1). Guard Moore (10.5) is the team's third double-digit scorer, while the 6-6 Thistlewood (9.9 & 3.9). and 6-10 freshman Moors (6.1 & 3.7) are the best frontcourt players. FOUR of the aforementioned players scored in double digits in the win over Buffalo (Moors being the exception), with Roddy leading the way with 17 points. The Wolfpack won their last FIVE regular season games, before losing to Syracuse (now a Sweet 16 team) in the ACC tourney. However, other than an upset win at UVa (which lost its first NCAA tourney game vs Ohio), the other four wins came against 6-10 Pitts (twice), 3-15 Wake Forest and 7-11 Notre Dame (records reflect ACC regular season ones). It's NC State's frontcourt vs CSU's perimeter game and I'm siding with the Rams, who EARNED their No. 1 NIT seed with well-balanced attack all season. Good luck...Larry |
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03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -7 | Top | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ut Jazz at 10:05 ET. The Utah Jazz opened the season 4-4 but then won 22 of 24 games (21-3 ATS) from Jan 8 through Feb 24 to give them the NBA's best overall record. Utah still owns the NBA's best record at 31-11 but the Jazz have 'cooled' in going just 5-5 their last 10 (more in a bit). Utah welcomes the Brooklyn Nets to Salt Lake City tonight, who edged the Blazers last night in Portland. The Nets have now won 16 of their last 18 games to reach 30-14, just ONE game back of the 31-13 76ers for the East's top record. The Nets were already without Kevin Durant (29.0-7.3-5.3) and Kyrie Irving (28.1-4.8-5.7) plus got a scare when James Harden came close to being sidelined due to a sore neck. However, Harden (25.3-7.9-11.2) ended up playing and finished with 25 points and a career-high-tying 17 assists. PF Green (9.8 & 3.8) and SF Harris (17.7 & 3.5) both had good games, scoring 20 and 17 points, respectively. However, Durant and Irving will NOT play here and while the Blazers are a good team, they are NOT the Jazz. It's "all hands on deck" for the Jazz with a starting-five of Mitchell (25.4-4.6-5.5) and Conley (16.4-3.4-5.5) in the backcourt, while center Gobert (14.5 & 13.4) is surrounded by Bogdanovich (14.9 & 3.9) and O'Neale (7.5 & 6.6) up front. Clarkson (17.5) is the front-runner for 6th-man of the year plus SG Ingles (12.3-3.6-4.2) and backup center Favors (5.9 & 5.3) have been quality contributors off the bench all season. Tough scheduling spot for the Nets here and without Durant and Irving, it's quite a test. I noted that the jazz have gone just 5-5 in their last 10 but note that NINE of those games came on the road. Utah won its lone home game in that stretch and comes into this game having won 16 straight at Vivint Arena. Also, I bet the Jazz remember losing 130-96 at Brooklyn back on Jan 5, before the Jazz jelled into the dominant team they now are. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-24-21 | Celtics v. Bucks -4 | Top | 119-121 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Bucks at 7:35 ET. Led by the trio of Tatum, Brown and Walker, the Boston Celtics were expected to be among the East's top-contenders, battling Milwaukee, Miami, Philadelphia and maybe Brooklyn (would the KD/Irving duo work?). Boston opened 8-3 (even though Walker was sidelined) but the team's early success did not last. As the Celtics visit Milwaukee tonight for the first of back-to-games with the Bucks (play again Friday), Boston 'limps' in having lost FOUR of its last their five to drop below .500 for the season at 21-22. Boston fell to 8-15 on the road after opening a four-game trek with a 132-126 overtime setback at Memphis on Monday. The Milwaukee Bucks owned the NBA's best record the previous two seasons (60-22 and 56-17) but each year lost before reaching the NBA Finals. A FIVE-game losing streak (Feb 10-18) left the Bucks at just 16-13 and with all asking, "What's wrong with the Bucks?" Milwaukee has answered its critics with a season-best SEVEN straight wins, as well 12 wins over its last 13 games. A sprained left knee prevented the two-time reigning NBA Most Valuable Player (Giannis Antetokounmpo) from playing Monday against Indiana (Bucks won 140-113) and his availability is in question for Wednesday. Tatum (24.9-6.8-4.3), Brown (24.7-5.6-3.9) and Walker (17.7-3.6-4.6) represent Boston's latest version of a "Big Three" but Tatum (dealt with "dizziness," per head coach Brad Stevens) and Walker (sat out the second game of a back-to-back set) both missed the game at Memphis. Walker will be back but no word yet on Tatum. Marcus Smart (12.8 & 5.4 APG) came back after the All Star break but Boston is just 2-5 in those seven games. The 6-10 Thompson was expected to greatly enhance Boston's interior play but at 7.9 & 8.4, he's been nothing special. He's missed Boston's last five games, with the Celtics losing FOUR of the five. Obviously the Bucks can't wait to get Giannis (29.0-11.7-6.4) back but it's unlikely he'll play here. That said, Milwaukee has excellent depth led by SF Middleton (20.4-6.0-5.5) and Jrue Holiday (15.9-4.6-5.2), who scored 28 points and added 14 assists in the rout of the Pacers (sans Giannis). Center Brook Lopez (11.4 & 5.0) and guard DiVincenzo (10.5-5.5-3.1) are regular starters plus Connaughton (6.9 & 4.5) started in place of Giannis vs Indiana, scoring 20 points and grabbing nine rebounds. The 6-10 Bobby Short (10.8 & 6.9) and SG Forbes (8.5) have been quality players off the bench all season. Milwaukee is making a strong case that its back to being the East's "Big Dog" (Giannis won't be sidelined for long) and the team's plus-7.5 point-differential is second to only that of Utah (+8.3). The Bucks will also will be out for revenge after losing to Boston 122-121 in the season opener. With or without Tatum, I want NO part of a Boston team that is 8-15 on the road (7-16 ATS), the WORST road record of any of the 10 teams currently in playoff position in the East. Good luck...Larry |
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03-23-21 | Pepperdine v. Bellarmine +6.5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My CBI 10* 2nd Rnd Game of the Year is on Bellarmine at 8:00 ET. The 2021 College Basketball Invitational is taking place over three days at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida. Eight mid-major squads were chosen for the event, which began with the quarterfinal round on Monday. The field has been downsized from the 16-squad format the CBI last used in 2019, when the championship was a three-game series. This year, the final will be a one-off showdown on Wednesday, between the programs that win on back-to-back days in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds. For some reason that made little sense, the two schools with the best record in the field, 16-7 Coastal Carolina and 15-6 Bryant, were matched against each other in the first round. Coastal won 93-82 and will play 12-14 Stetson on Tuesday, which edged Bowling Green 53-52. The other semifinal game will be 13-12 Pepperdine against 14-7 Bellarmine. The Waves beat Longwood 80-66, while Bellarmine advanced with a 77-67 win over Army. The Waves have been led all season by senior PG Ross (18.0-3.9-77) and 6-8 junior Edwards (17.1 & 6.8). That duo starred on Monday, as Edwards scored 22 points, while Ross scored 14 points plus handed out 13 assists. A nice surprise came in the form of 6-9 center Obioha (just 5.1 & 4.3 on the season) adding 13 points and 11 rebounds. However, Longwood was hardly a test, entering the game at 12-16 (now 12-17) on the season. Bellarmine is transitioning into Division I and played its first season in the Atlantic Sun in 2020-21. The Knights are led by 6-7 guard Bradshaw, who leads the team in scoring (16.1) and rebounding (7.1). He is joined by three more double digit scorers. That group includes guards Penn (13.0-3.6-3.6) and Fleming (12.2) plus 6-7 forward Claycomb (10.0 & 3.5). The team's fifth starter is guard Pfriem (6.5 & 3.5). Bradshaw had an outstanding game vs Army, scoring 3 points while adding 11 rebounds. Fleming added 17 points and Penn 13. Lorenzo Romar began his coaching career at Pepperdine in the late 90s but left for St Louis and then Washington. He led the Huskies to six NCAA berths in his first nine seasons but then NONE in his final six (was fired after a 9-22 season). He's back at Pepperdine but like in his first stint, has been basically a .500 coach. Meanwhile, Bellarmine head coach Scott Davidson is in his 16th season at the school. After going 40-43 in his first three seasons, he led the Knights to 11 consecutive seasons of 23-plus wins before the current season. His 2011 squad won 33 games and captured the Division II national championship plus Davidson led the Knights to three more Final Fours, with seasons of 29, 31 and 32 wins. I had Bellarmine last night noting that Davidson knows all about postseason tourney games and Bellarmine is NOT in over its head with this CBI field. I will 'jump all over them' again tonight, as the Knights are getting a 'TD' worth of points and they just might be the better team. We'll find out! Good luck...Larry |
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03-22-21 | Hawks v. Clippers -6 | Top | 110-119 | Win | 100 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 10:10 ET. The Atlanta Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce on March 1 and replaced him with assistant coach Nate McMillan. The veteran NBA coach has turned the Hawks into the 'Utah Jazz,' as Atlanta has won EIGHT straight (longest active streak in the NBA) while going 6-1-1 ATS. The Hawks opened an eight-game road trip with a visit to Staples Center for a contest with the Lakers on Saturday, who were 4-0 SU & ATS since the All Star break (7-1 SU & ATS since a four-game slide from Feb 18-24), and upset the Lakers 99-94. The 22-20 Atlanta Hawks will try to make it two wins in a row at Staples Center against the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday night. The Clippers are coming off a 125-98 blowout win over the Charlotte Hornets at home on Saturday, giving them a modest 3-2 record since the All Star break. Los Angeles likely will be playing without starters Patrick Beverley (8.3 & 3.7 APG) and Serge Ibaka (10.9 & 6.7). Beverley has missed the last four games with right knee soreness, while Ibaka has missed the last three games due to lower back tightness. However, players like Jackson and Zubac have stepped up. Also, the news that LeBron James is out indefinitely after suffering a high-ankle sprain in his team's loss to the Hawks (A.D. has been sidelined since mid-Feb), the Clippers have a chance to make up some ground in the Western Conference, hosting 10 of their next 12 games. PG Trae Young (25.7-4.1-9.4) has led the Hawks all season and the Hawks also got a boost defensively from the return of center Clint Capela, who had eight points and eight rebounds in last Thursday's 116-93 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Capela, who averages a double-double (14.4 & 14.2) on the season, had missed two games with left heel soreness. PF Collins (18.2 & 7.8) and SG Huerter (12.1) have been mainstays, as each has played all 42 games this season. On the injury front, PF Hunter (17.2 & 5.4) is out of commission with an articular tear in his right knee and he is not expected to return until the end of March (he's played just 18 games). Meanwhile, SF Reddish (11.2 & 4.0) has missed 15 games (last played Feb 21), as he's being held out of the lineup with a right Achilles injury and it is unclear how long he will be sidelined. Kawhi (26.0-6.3-4.9) and George (23,0-6.1-5.4) remain LA's 'Dynamic Duo' but Williams (12.3) has played MUCH better since Feb 1, as has PF Morris (11.9 & 3.8). PG Jackson (8.8) is filling in for Beverley and center Zubac (8.4 & 6.9) has started three in a row averaging 13.0 & 7.7. The 30-11 Jazz sit atop the West, two games ahead of the 28-13 Suns and three up on the 28-15 Lakers. The 27-16 Clippers are 4th at 27-16, four games back of the Jazz. However, as noted above, the Clippers have a great opportunity to "make a move" with 10 of their next 12 games at home. With LBJ and A.D. sidelined, the Clippers co-tenants are clearly vulnerable. After tonight's game with the Hawks, the Clippers travel to San Antonio (Wed & Thu) for two games with the Spurs but then return to Staples Center for NINE straight games. It's "Movin' time" and it starts here with a win over the red-hot Hawks, who beat the Clippers 108-99 back in Atlanta on Jan 26. Good luck...Larry |
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03-22-21 | Maryland v. Alabama -5.5 | Top | 77-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Bailout Blowout is on Alabama at 8:45 ET. Alabama finished No. 5 in the AP's final regular season poll, after winning the SEC's regular-season title and then capturing the tournament crown for the first time since 1991. Alabama's No. 2 seed matched the best in program history. Alabama got tested by Rick Pitino's 15th-seeded Iona team, trailing six times throughout the game but avoided the upset with an 11-0 run that was enough to win 68-55. The 25-6 Crimson Tide now look to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2004 on Monday when they play a 17-13 Maryland team (No. 10 seed), fresh off an impressive defensive showing in the first round. Maryland limited the UConn Huskies to 32.3 percent shooting in a 63-54 win over on Saturday. It was the 11th time this season the Terps held an opponent to under 60 points. |
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03-22-21 | Bellarmine -1 v. Army | Top | 77-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* CBI 1st Rnd Game of the Year is on Bellarmine at 8:30 ET. The 2021 College Basketball Invitational will take place over three days at the Ocean Center in Daytona Beach, Florida. Eight mid-major squads were chosen for the event, which will begin with the quarterfinal round on Monday. The field has been downsized from the 16-squad format the CBI last used in 2019, when the championship was a three-game series. This year, the final will be a one-off showdown on Wednesday, between the programs that win on back-to-back days in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds. It's the 13-7 Bellarmine Knights vs the 12-9 Army Black Knights in Monday action from Daytona Beach. Bellarmine is transitioning into Division I and played its first season in the Atlantic Sun in 2020-21. Army plays in the Patriot League, joining that conference back in 1990. Bellarmine is led by 6-7 guard Bradshaw (15.4 & 6.9), who is joined by three more double digit scorers. That group includes guards Penn (13.0) and Fleming (11.9) plus 6-7 forward Claycomb (10.4 & 3.5). The Knights have size in the 6-10 DeVault and the 6-8 Thelen but neither player rebounds well with both contributing only 5.0 PPG. EIGHT Army players have participated in all 21 games and its top-five players include three seniors, a junior and one freshman. A trio of guards average in double digits, led by senior Grayson (12.7 & 5.3), junior Caldwell (12.6 & 4.6) and freshman Rucker (10.0). 6-8 senior King (11.8 & 4.8) makes four double digit scorers and 6-7 senior Finke (5.9 & 6.1) is the team's leading rebounder. Army's the more veteran team but head coach Jimmy Allen hasn't had much success with this group. He was just 54-70 in his first four seasons, including last season's 15-15 club which was 10-8 in Patriot League play (note: just the SECOND time since 1990 that the Black Knights won double digit games in league play since 1990!). I mentioned earlier that Bellarmine is transitioning into Division I but head coach Scott Davidson is in his 16th season as the school's head coach. After going 40-43 in his first three seasons, he led the Knights to 11 consecutive seasons of 23-plus wins before the current season. His 2011 squad won 33 games and captured the Division II national championship plus Davidson led the Knights to three more Final Fours, with seasons of 29, 31 and 32 wins. If you are looking for a 'Cinderella' team in this year's CBI, Bellarmine may be it! Davidson knows all about postseason tourney games and Bellarmine is NOT in over its head with this CBI field. Good luck...Larry |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State -1.5 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Florida St at 7:45 ET. 4th-seeded Florida State (17-6) had to battle to get by North Carolina Greensboro on Saturday while 5th-seeded Colorado cruised to an easy win over Georgetown. The Seminoles needed to hold off a second-half surge by the Spartans, who cut a 12-point deficit to a point in the final five minutes before Florida St won by 10 points. In contrast, there was no drama for the Buffaloes, who led by as many as 32 in a 96-73 win over the Hoyas. Both teams are tournament tested, having reached the finals of their respective conference tournaments. Tad Boyle is in his 11th season at Colorado and despite losing the 6-7 Tyler Bey (13.8 & 9.0) to the NBA (he played center for the Buffs), the good news was that PG Wright flirted with the NBA draft but returned to Boulder for his senior season. The Buffs reached the Pac 12 tourney game but were upset 70-68 by Oregon St (note: The Ducks own upset wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma St in this year's big Dance). As expected, PG Wright (15.5-4.4-5.8) is the team leader and is surrounded by veterans, such as the 6-7 Horne (11.1 & 5.8), the 6-8 Battey (10.0 & 5.3), the 6-7 Walker (7.9 & 4.4) and the 7-0 Walton (6.7 & 32.9) up front. Backcourt 'helpers' for Wright are Schwartz (9.2 & 4.0), Daniels (5.3 and Parquet (5.3). Wight had 12 points and 13 assists against the Hoyas, while Walker scored 24 points in 20 minutes off the bench and Schwartz added 18 points. FSU entered this season losing three key players from last year's 26-5 team (more in a bit). PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0), who were all chosen in the NBA draft. However, guard MJ Walker is back and leads with 12.5 PPG. He's surrounded by a talented and deep group. The 6-8 Gray (12.2 & 6.6) and 6-9 freshman Barnes (10.6-4.3-4.1) join Walker in double digits plus guard Polite (9.5 & 4.5) and the 7-1 Koprivica (9.4 & 6.0) aren't far behind. Guards Calhoun (5.6) and Evans (5.4) plus the 6-9 Osborne (5.4 & 4.5) give this team a deep bench. The Seminoles got a scare when leading scorer Walker limped off with an ankle injury in the second half. He went to the locker room but returned a few minutes later to help Florida State hang on. Walker had only four points against UNC Greensboro in 32 minutes but Gray (17 points), Koprivica (13 points / nine rebounds) and Anthony Polite (12 points) picked up the slack. Word is that Walker should be fine for Monday's game. Colorado shot 60.7% against the Hoyas, including 16-25 on threes. NO way the Buffs replicate that against FSU (note: the Buffs' Walker was 9 of 10 from the floor). Meanwhile, I believe FSU's "close call" in the first round will have them highly-focused for this one. Florida St head coach Leonard Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that has produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools, behind only Duke and Virginia since 2016. The Seminoles were 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic last year. Could this year "be the year?" m A win here gets them halfway to the Final Four. That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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03-22-21 | Oklahoma +14.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 71-87 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Oklahoma at 2:40 ET. Gonzaga opened No. 1 in the AP's preseason poll and has yet to 'blink!' The top-ranked Bulldogs moved to 27-0 with their 98-55 over Norfolk State on Saturday. The team's next 'victim' is expected to be the eighth-seed Oklahoma Sooners, who recorded a 72-68 victory over Missouri in their first-round game to move to 16-10. The Bulldogs are five wins away from becoming the first undefeated national champion since Indiana in the 1975-76 season. Is it a forgone conclusion? When Rick Pitino led Iona into this year's Big Dance it was noted that he became one of just THREE head coaches to lead five programs to the NCAA Tournament. Oklahoma's Lon Kruger is ONE of the other two (Kansas St, Florida, Illinois, UNLV and Oklahoma). He's participated in 17 NCAA Tournaments, including 2 Final Fours (1994 with Florida; 2016 with Oklahoma). Leading scorer Reaves (17.9-5.6-4.8) scored 23 points in the Sooners' first-round win over Missouri but received excellent support from the 6-9 Manek (11.2 & 5.0) who added 19 points and fellow guard Harkless (8.1 & 5.3), who added a double-double (16 points / 10 rebounds). However, Oklahoma will be without second-leading scorer De'Vion Harmon (12.9) for the second straight game due to a positive COVID-19 test. Mark Few's accomplishments at Gonzaga are too many to list but as all know, he's still missing that one last piece, a national championship. This is likely his best team, led by 6-7 first-team All-American Kispert (19.3 & 4.9), as well as third-team All-Americans, the 6-10 Timme (18.4 & 7.1) and freshman guard Suggs (14.0-5.4-4.4). Guards Ayayi (11.9 & 7.0) and Nembhard (9.0 & 4.2 APG) plus the 6-8 Watson (7.5 & 3.5) round out the main contributors. Kispert led the way with 23 points in Gonzaga's first game, while Watson got a start and chipped in 17 points (7 of 7 from the floor). Gonzaga won its 24th straight game by double digits against Norfolk St and its 31st consecutive game going back to the end of last season. Gonzaga averages 92.9 PPG on 55.3 % shooting, ranking 1st in both categories. Asking for Oklahoma to pull the upset is likely asking too much but note that BYU was tied with Gonzaga in the WCC tourney final with just four minutes to go (lost by 10). After all, the contest will be played at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the 1954 Milan High School Indians won the Indiana High School Boys Basketball Tournament championship in 1954 (inspiration for the 1986 film Hoosiers) Do you believe in miracles? Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-21 | Mavs -1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 132-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Dal Mavericks at 10:10 ET. Doncic led the Mavs into the playoffs last season (ending a three-year drought) and Dallas was expected to be a playoff regular with him as its leader. However, the Mavs saw starters like center Porzingis (20.8 & 8.4), SG Richardson (13.3), SF Finney-Smith (8.2 & 5.3) and PF Kleber (7.3 & 5.4) all miss 10 or more games. Doncic (28.8-8.4-9.3) can be unstoppable at times. Porzingis (20.0 & 8.6) has been healthy lately plus 6th-man Hardaway (16.5) has been terrific all season. Hardaway has started for Finney-Smith (8.2 & 5.3) Wednesday and Friday and may again as Finney-Smith is NOT expected to play. SG Richardson (13.0) and PF Kleber (7.8 & 5.4) are the team's other two starters. Guards Brunson (12.5)) and Burke (7.1) round out the main contributors Portland hung tough despite CJ McCollum (25.-3.8-4.6 being out since Jan 16 (fractured left foot), while center Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) has played just 12 games (9.8 & 7.7) and PF Zach Collins (ankle) has yet to play a single game. Portland's Lillard (30.6-4.5-7.7) is a true superstar plus Trent (15.0) and Simmons (8.1) have stepped up in McCollum's absence. The ageless Anthony adds 14.2 PPG off the bench plus PF Covington (8.5 & 6.6) and SF Jones (7.8 & 4.5) were acquired in the offseason (both are excellent defenders) and while not spectacular, have been solid contributors. The Mavs and Blazers played Friday night in Portland with the Blazers winning 125-119. Portland is now 25-16 (tied with the Nuggets for the West's No. 5 seed), while the Mavs are 21-19 (No. 8 seed). As expected Doncic (38) and Lillard (31) went mano-a mano but the "big news" was CJ McCollum shaking off the rust with 32 points in his third game since returning from a fractured left foot. The two teams square off again Sunday night and I can't help but play the Mavs in this quick "payback" situation. Full disclosure, I did have the Mavs in the Friday game, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-21 | Oregon State v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 80-70 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
My NCAA 10* "Best of the Best" 2nd Round Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 9:40 ET. Oregon State head coach Wayne Tinkle lost his son Tres (18.5 & 6.8) and center Kelley (11.1 PPG / 5.3 RPG / 3.5 BPG) from last year's team. Not much was expected from the Beavers and by late-February Oregon St was 11-11 (7-9 in Pac 12). However, the Beavers won three straight on the road (at Cal, Stanford and Utah), before losing their regular season finale to Oregon, which avenged an earlier loss at home to Oregon St. Oregon St then beat UCLA, Oregon and Colorado (all as underdogs) to win the Pac 12 tourney and advance to the NCAA tournament as a No. 12 seed. The Beavers' run is not yet over, as they fashioned a 70-56 upset over No. 5 Tennessee on Friday. Mike Boynton took over in Stillwater when Brad Underwood left for Illinois and in his first three seasons, the Cowboys were an underwhelming 51-49. However, led by super-frosh Cade Cunningham, the Cowboys ended the regular season 18-7 and ranked 12th in the nation. The Cowboys beat then-No. 10 West Va and then-No. 2 Baylor in the Big 12 tourney, before losing to then-No. 13 Texas (91-86) in the title game. The 4th-seeded Cowboys struggled in their first round game with 13th-seeded Liberty (trailed by three at the half) but advanced with a 69-60 victory. Oregon St is led by guard Thompson (15.3-3.8-3.9) and fellow guard Lucas (13.0) is the only other double digit scorer. That duo is joined in the starting lineup by fellow guard Reichle (7.7)) plus the 6-7 Alatishe (9.7 & 8.5) and the 7-1 Silva (5.7 & 2.5). As one can see, the 7-1 Silva is not much of a rebounder (2.5 per) but gets some help up front from the 6-10 Calloo (5.2) and the 6-8 Andela (6.4 & 4.5). Four of OSU's starters were in double digits against Tennessee, while the Beavers held the Vols to 33.3% shooting, including 5 of 26 on threes. Most seem to think that Cunningham will be the NBA's No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft and he's averaged 20.0-6.3-3.5. However, he missed his first five shots and scored just ONE point in the first half as the Cowboys fell behind 30-27 on Friday. He finished with 15 points but was surely helped by fellow guard Anderson (12.0 & 4.1), who scored 21 points. The 6-5 Likekele (9.7-6.7-3.7) is back from a few missed games and is an important cog. He added 10-6-4 in Friday's win. Other key contributors are the 6-9 Boone (9.6 & 5.6), and the 6-7 Moncrieffe (9.1 & 5.3) plus guards Walker (8.1),and Williams (7.3). Something tells me Ore St has played "over its head" and can the 7-1 Roman Silva (5.7 PPG) be expected to score a 16 points for the Beavers (8 of 8 from the floor), giving him a career high in points? Also, was it OSU's defense or Tennessee's poor shooting on Friday when the Vols shot 33.3%? In contrast, should we expect Cunningham to repeat his 3 of 14 shooting performance or for the Cowboys to again shoot 40.3% as a team, including 3 of 15 on threes? Ore St beat UCLA as a 5 1/2-point dog and then followed with wins over Oregon, Colorado and Tennessee (each time as 8 1/2-point underdogs). That run ends here, as I expect Cunningham to star and for the Cowboys to move on to the Sweet 16 with a double-digit win. Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -8.5 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Oral Roberts at 7:45 ET. Paul Mills came to Oral Roberts four years ago and in his first three seasons his Golden Eagles were hardly 'golden,' going 39-56. However, Oral Roberts won the Summit League Tournament as the No. 4 seed and then upset second-seed Ohio St 75-72 on Friday. It marked the NINTH time a 15th seed had knocked off a No. 2 seed and the first since Middle Tennessee's victory over Michigan State in 2016. Waiting for Oral Roberts at Indiana Farmers Coliseum will be No. 7 seed Florida. The Gators trailed by 10 in the first half against Va Tech and 44-36 with 15 minutes left but went on to win 75-70 in OT. ORU is led by guard Abmas, who scored 29 vs Ohio St. He not only leads ORU in scoring but his 24.4 PPG leads the entire nation. "Mr Inside" to Abmas' "Mr Outside" is the 6-8 Obanor (18.6 & 9.5), who had 30 points and 11 rebounds vs the Buckeyes. Mike White took over in Gainesville after Billy Donovan took the job with OKC in the NBA and won 20-plus games his first four seasons. The team was 19-12 when last year's season was shut down and COVID issues has limited the Gators to just 24 games this season. 6-5 SF Johnson 14.0 & 7.1 LY) was the SEC's preseason P-O-Y but he was lost just FOUR games into this season. Florida (15-9) beat Va Tech despite going into the game shorthanded and having the lineup further depleted when the team's third-leading scorer, Tyree Appleby (11.2), took an elbow to the face midway through the second half. His status for this game is unclear. White decided not to play Omar Payne (3.7 & 3.2) after the reserve forward was ejected from the SEC tournament quarterfinals for a flagrant-2 foul. Again, his status is unclear. Tre Mann (15.9-5.6-3.4) scored 14 points vs the Hokies, while the 6-11 Castleton (12.3 & 6.2) really stepped up (19 & 14). Guard Lewis (8.3) added 15 HUGE points. Oral Roberts won its first NCAA Tournament game since 1974 on Friday and history tells us that the previous EIGHT No. 15 seeds that won their openers, just ONE of them won their second round game. However, I believe this Florida team is ripe for an upset. Taking more than a 'TD' is a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-21 | Syracuse v. West Virginia -4 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on West Va at 5:15 ET. West Va's Bob Huggins is fresh off his 900th career victory, achieved with an 84-67 victory over 14th-seeded Morehead State on Friday. The 3rd-seed Mountaineers (now 19-9) take on 11th-seeded Syracuse (17-9) in this second round game from Bankers Life Fieldhouse (home of the Pacers). Huggins' coach counterpart will be none other than Jim Boeheim, who has officially won 981 games over his 45 seasons at Syracuse (note: 101 other victories have been vacated by the NCAA for violations). Syracuse is off an impressive 78-62 first round win over San Diego St, which entered that contest on a 14-game winning streak. Syracuse starts an 'Iron-5,' and that group's only real help comes from reserve guard Richmond (6.5 & 3.2 APG). Boeheim's son Buddy, leads the team at 17.7 PPG and comes back-to-back 30-point games. He scored a career-high 31 in a loss to Virginia in the ACC tourney and added 30 points (made 11 of 15 shots, including 7 of 10 from three-point range). Syracuse has a strong frontcourt, consisting of 6-5 SF Griffin (14.1 & 6.3), the 6-7 Guerrier (14.0 & 8.6) and the 6-10 Dolezaj (10.0 & 5.2), while PG Girard (9.5 & 3.3 APG) starts in the backcourt with Boeheim. FOUR of five starters returned from last season's West Va team but the 6-9 Oscar Tshiebwe (11.2 & 9.2 last season / 8.5 & 7.8 thru 10 games) opted to transfer to Kentucky in mid-season, forcing a complete change of basketball philosophy for Huggins. The 6-10 Culver (14.5 & 9.7) is now the main focus inside, as Huggins now relies on his perimeter people. Guards McBride (16.0-3.9-4.8), Sherman (13.4) and McNeil, (11.9) have really stepped up. Joining Culver up front are a pair of 6-7 players, junior Matthews (7.6 & 3.9) and freshman Bridges (6.0 & 3.4). Syracuse made a Final Four run as a 10th seed in 2016 and advanced to the Sweet 16 as an 11th seed in 2018. That famous 2-3 zone worked its 'magic' on SD St but I don't believe Huggins and his West Va team will fall victim to it here. Remember, Syracuse entered the Big Dance just 3-8 in games outside of the Carrier Dome this season, with its only victories coming against Boston College (2-11 in the ACC) and two wins over NC St after the Wolfpack lost their leading scorer Daniels. Meanwhile, West Va opened at No. 15 in the AP's preseason poll and has been ranked in EVERY poll this season, entering the Big Dance at No. 13. West Va is the ONLY team to stay within single digits this season vs Gonzaga, losing just 87-82. Boeheim's 2021 NCAA tourney 'run' ends after just ONE win. Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-21 | Wisconsin v. Baylor -6.5 | Top | 63-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 2:40 ET. Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. Wisconsin was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll and began the season with FIVE seniors starters. The Badgers were 13-4 (7-3 Big Ten) in late January but really stumbled down the stretch. They lost EIGHT of their final 12 games but didn't fall out of the top-25 until the March 8th poll (second-to-last). Wisconsin earned a No. 9 seed and routed No. 8 North Carolina 85-62 in the first round on Friday. The outcome marked the first loss in an NCAA Tournament opener for North Carolina head coach Roy Williams, who was a combined 29-0 in those games with Kansas and the Tar Heels. Baylor's Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and had made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine) entering this season. Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) from last year's team but the strength of Baylor's team this season is centered around its guards. Baylor opened 18-0 but lost 71-58 at Kansas on Feb 27, playing just its SECOND game since Feb 2. The Bears would finish the regular season 21-1 (13-1 in the Big 12), winning their first-ever Big 12 regular-season title and first league championship since they won the SWC regular season in 1950. Baylor lost to Okla St in the Big 12 semis but rolled in its NCAA opener, 79-55 over Hartford. Baylor was impressive but its win came over a No. 16 seed. In comparison, Wisconsin routed North Carolina 85-62, reaching the 80-point mark for just the second time since Christmas. Wisconsin has FIVE seniors. Trice (13.9-3.4-4.0) and Davison (10.1) are the guards, while the 6-10 Potter (12.6 & 5.8), the 6-8 Ford (8.7 & 4.2) and the 6-11 Reuvers (8.2) have typically started up front. 6-5 freshman Davis (6.9 & 4.2) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.2 & 4.3) have both been regular contributors. It was Davison (29) and Trice (21) who starred vs the Tar Heels. Butler (17.0-3.3-4.9) is the best of Baylor's guards the group but don't look past Teague (16.4 & 4.2), Mitchell (14.0 & 5.3 APG), Flagler (8.8) or Mayer (8.0) The 6-5 Vital (5.7 & 6.7) plays like a power forward and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 6.5 & 5.3 plus the 6-10 Thamba adds 3.6 & 4.0. Teague, who was playing in his first NCAA tourney game for the Bears, led the way with 22 points on Friday but Butler struggled (13 points), going 5 of 16 from the floor, including 1 of 8 on threes. I respect Wisconsin's five seniors and longtime success in the "Big Dance" but this season has the 'feel' of a very special one for Baylor and Scott Drew. Baylor was 18-0 (13-5 ATS) before COVID protocols disrupted its season but that's behind them now. How good has Drew been at Baylor? How about this. After only three 20-win seasons in its first 100 seasons of basketball, Baylor has reached 20 wins for the 12th time in the last 14 seasons. Wisconsin looked 'gassed' down the stretch and I'm not sure where Friday's effort came from. I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Illinois at 12:10 ET. Porter Moser is in his 10th season and Loyola-Chicago and few will forget his team's memorable Final 4 run in 2018. The Ramblers won 20 and 21 games the last two seasons and with all FIVE starters back from last year's pandemic-shortened season, Loyola had high expectations this season. Drake opened 18-0 this season in the MVC grabbing the early headlines but Loyola caught and passed the Bulldogs, winning the MVC regular season title and then Arch Madness with a 75-65 victory over Drake. The No. 8-seeded Ramblers then bested 9th-seed Ga tech 70-61 in the first round. Loyola's reward? A date with the regions' No. 1 seed, Illinois (AP's No. 2 team). Brad Underwood's first two seasons at Illinois did not go well (14-18 and 12-21) but the Illini went 21-10 in 2019-20, before COVID shut down the season. Illinois opened No. 8 in the preseason poll but by mid-Jan, the Fighting Illini were a modest 9-5 (5-3 in the Big Ten). However, Illinois would end the regular season 20-6, including 16-4 in the Big Ten. It would then capture the Big Ten Tourney (No. 2 seed) for the first time since 2005 and enter the "Big Dance" as the AP's No. 2 team and with one of the four, No. 1 seeds. The Illini made 'short work' of 16th-seeded Drexel on Friday, winning 78-49. Loyola is led by 6-9 center Krutwig (14.9 & 6.7), five guards chipping in between 6.8 and 8.6 PPG plus the 6-7 Uguak (7.5 & 4.2) and the 6-8 Welch (5.0 & 2.0) lending Krutwig a hand up front. Krutwig had a modest 10 & 5 in the win over Ga Tech but FOUR of Loyola's starters scored in double digits. Leading the way were Williamson (8.6) with 21 points and Norris (8.4) with 18 points. Illinois is led by All American guard Dosunmu (20.6-6.5-5.4) and 7-0 All-Big Ten center Cockburn (17.6 & 9.5). The backcourt features veterans like Frazier (10.4), Curbelo (9.1 & 4.1 APG) and Williams (5.6 & 5.4) plus freshman Miller adds 8.3 PPG. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (5.2 & 2.8) rounds out the main contributors. Dosunmu had 17-11-6 and Cockburn 18 & 5 against Drexel, as Illinois shot 57.1% from the floor, while holding Drexel to 30.6%. For history buffs, the last time these Illinois schools teams met in the postseason was the 1963 NCAA Tournament, when Loyola won on its way to capturing the school's lone national championship. Is this the season Illinois wins its first-ever NCAA championship? The Illini have been to five Final Fours but have never won it all. Many think this could be the year? Let's NOT look past this game. Yes, Loyola is 25-4 but its LONE game against a top-25 team this season came back on Dec 15 at then-No. 12 Wisconsin. The Ramblers lost that one 77-63 and that margin sounds about right to me in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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03-20-21 | UCLA v. BYU -3.5 | Top | 73-62 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on BYU at 9:40 ET. UCLA and Michigan St met Thursday in a First Four game that may just have been, from a status perspective, the best-ever game in First Four history. Michigan St led 44-33 at the half but UCLA 'flipped the script' in the second half, winning it 44-33. UCLA then won 86-80 in OT. The Bruins are in the Big Dance for the 50th time and own 11 national titles but 10 came in the Wooden era (1964-1975). Knocking Tom Izzo's team out of the tourney marked UCLA's first NCAA Tournament win since 2017. The 11th-seeded Bruins (18-9) now take on the 6th-seeded BYU Cougars, who come in at 20-6. UCLA rallied from a 14-point deficit to eke past Michigan State, led by Jaime Jaquez (27 points) and Johnny Juzang (23)."Maybe Coach's luck was with us," UCLA head coach Mick Cronin said in reference to the legendary John Wooden. "The players really needed this. I'm really, really happy for the guys.". UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Jan 30 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging in double digits. PG Campbell (10.3 & 5.6 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Zuzang (14.5 & 4.1), the 6-6 Jaquez (12.3 & 6.0) and the 6-6 Bernard (10.4 & 4.9). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.2 & 5.2) up front. Mark Pope had an excellent first season at BYU (came from Utah Valley St), going 24-8 before the shutdown. However, gone from that team are PF Childs (22.2 & 9.0) plus guards Toolson (15.2-4.8-3.9) and Haws (14.0 & 5.8 APG). Despite those losses, BYU has gone 20-6 and one CAN'T ignore the fact that THREE of those losses came to No. 1 and unbeaten 26-0 Gonzaga. Seniors Barcello (15.9-4.7-4.5) and Averette (11.5 & 3.7 APG) are an excellent backcourt duo plus the 7-3 Haarms (Purdue graduate transfer) has chipped in 11.3 & 4.8 on the season. The 6-8 Lohner (7.0 & 7.0), the 6-11 Harward (6.2 & 4.3) and the 6-6 George (5.6 & 3.4) provide excellent depth up front, while guards Knell, Harding and Johnson combine to chip in 17.5 PPG from the perimeter. BYU gave Gonzaga a scare in the WCC championship game, making 10 of its first 16 shots to take a 26-19 lead. BYU continued to go right at the Zags, hitting 9 of 13 from beyond the arc to lead 53-41 at halftime. The game was tied at 73-all with about four minutes to go, before the Zags won by 10 points. Note that the Cougars are the last team to beat Gonzaga, 91-78 back on Feb 22, 2020. UCLA was VERY lucky to get past Michigan St and the Bruins enter this game on a 4-11 ATS run their last 15 (that's a 79% "go-against!"). Good luck...Larry |
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03-20-21 | Maryland v. Connecticut -3 | Top | 63-54 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UConn at 7:10 ET. Mark Turgeon coached Wichita St for seven years, before leading Texas A&M to four straight NCAA tournaments in four years going 97-40. He joined Maryland when it was still in the ACC but its move to the Big Ten has been good for the basketball program, as over the previous six seasons the Terps have won 20-plus games in five seasons (exception was a 19-win season), making four NCAA tourneys (would have been five, as Maryland was 24-7 when the season was shut down last year). Maryland did get at-large bid this season (No. 10 seed), despite a mediocre 16-13 overall record (9-11 in the ACC). UConn moved to the AAC for the 2013-14 season and made an improbable run to the Final Four and won a national championship. However, it has spent the last six seasons going just 110-90, with just two seasons of 20-plus wins and one NCAA tourney appearance. The Huskies have fallen out of the national 'picture' but a return to the Big East this season, along with the hiring of Dan Hurley as its head coach, had expectations running high in Storrs. Hurley spent six seasons at Rhode Island, winning 25 and 26 games in his final two years, ending with NCAA bids. However, he went 14 -19 and 16-17 in his first two seasons with UConn, before going 19-12 in last season's pandemic-shortened one. UConn earned a No. 7 seed by going 15-7 (11-6 in Big East play). Maryland has nice depth at the guard position, led by Ayala (14.9 & 4.2) and Wiggins (14.0 & 5.9) plus joined by Morsell (9.0 & 4.0) and Hart (7.1 & 3.6). The 6-7 Scott (10.9 & 6.1) and the 6-8 Hamilton (6.8 & 2.4) are the best frontcourt contributors. Bouknight (19.0 & 5.7), Cole (12.3 & 4.4 APG) and Martin (10.7 & 7.3) give UConn a solid backcourt trio, while up front it's three 6-9 players, Whaley (8.1 & 6.1), Polley (7.6 & ) Whaley (9.3 & 6.4) and freshman Sanogo (7.5 & 4.5). Bouknight's injury cost him a little over a month but he had a 40-point outing as one of his seven, 20-point games in the 14 he played. UConn was 11-3 in those games and I like them here in a "big way!" However, Alabama likely awaits in the Round of 32 and that may just be a 'bridge too far. Good luck...Larry |
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03-20-21 | Drake v. USC -6 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on USC at 4:30 ET. Drake head coach Darian DeVries led the Bulldogs to 24 and 20-win seasons in his first two seasons at Drake but the Bulldogs entered this season as a middle-of-the-pack preseason pick in the MVC. However, Drake opened 18-0 but down the stretch lost TWO of three to MVC rival Loyola-Chicago, including 75-65 in the championship game (Arch Madness). The Bulldogs earned an at-large bid and met Wichita St in a First Four game with the winner advancing as an 11-seed. Drake rallied from 12 points down to edge Wichita St 53-52, snapping its11-game losing streak to Wichita State. Drake moves on to take on 22-7 USC, which earned a No. 6 seed. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season before the shut down. USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season but finished 15-5 in this season's Pac 12 race, just behind No. 1 seed Oregon (14-4). Drake has featured a seven-man rotation for most of this season, led by 6-6 forward Hemphill (14.1 & 6.3). Then there are guards Yesufu (12.1), Penn (11.2-3.3 5.5) and Wilkins (10.6) plus 6-6 forward Murphy (10.2 & 5.2). Guard Sturtz (8.4 & 5.6) and the 6-10 Brodie (7.3 & 7.2) round of the main contributors. All previous noted stats do not include the Wichita St game. Hemphill had been sidelined since Feb 10 with a foot injury and Penn was lost for the season in late-February, as Drake took on Wichita St. Hemphill did not start and played only 10 minutes (three points / four rebounds) plus Wilkins (10.6 PPG on the season) made just 1 of 8 shots scoring three points. Yesufu starred with 21 points, while big men Murphy (11 & 4) and Brodie (9 & 10) had solid games. I noted that USC lost its top-five scorers from last season but Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. All Evan Mobley did was average 16.8 & 8.6, earning Pac-12 P-O-Y and Defensive P-O-Y honors. He joined his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who has added 9.0 & 7.4. Peterson is a 6-8 swingman from Rice who averages 9.9 & 5.0 plus guards Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St round out the starting-five. Eaddy averages 13.7 PPG and White 7.2. Guard Anderson (6.1) and the 6-9 Goodwin (5.9 & 3.7) contribute off the bench. USC lost 72-70 in the Pac 12 tourney to Colorado (0-3 vs the Buffs this season) but get a VERY favorable first game in the "Big Dance." Could Enfield be back in the Sweet 16 team with USC, like with Florida Gulf Coast? First things FIRST. Lay the points here. Good luck...Larry |
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03-20-21 | Iona +17 v. Alabama | Top | 55-68 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Iona at 4:00 ET. Everyone knows The Rick Pitino Saga, who is taking his fifth school to the NCAA Tournament, having previously 'danced' with Boston University, Providence, Kentucky. I guess one's first (BU) always has a special place in one's heart but after all the turmoil Pitino has been through in the last few years, earning an NCAA bid with Iona in his first try, has to be "right up there!" However, Pitino draws a formidable foe in No. 5 Alabama (24-6), which won the SEC's regular-season title and then captured the tournament crown for the first time since 1991. Alabama's No. 2 seed matches the best in program history. Iona had a 51-day hiatus due to COVID, which the school says sidelined them longer than any team in the country. Iona entered the MAAC tourney just 8-5 (6-3 in league play) but won FOUR games over five days to capture the league's automatic bid. The Gaels are led by an excellent duo of senior guards, Ross (18.4 & 3.8)) and Gist (13.3 & 3.87APG). 6-9 freshman Joseph (11.4 & 7.6), 6-5 JC transfer JeanLouis (8.2 & 5.6), freshman guard Myers (6.1) and 6-9 senior van Eyck (7.3 & 6.5) complete Iona's main contributors. Alabama head coach Nate Oats was 96-43 at Buffalo, leading the Bulls to three NCAA tourneys in his four years, including going 27-9 and 32-4 in his last two seasons. 'Bama was just 16-15 last season and guard Lewis (18.5-4.8-5.2) left after one year for the NBA but the other four starters returned. A trio of guards all average double digits. That trio is Shackelford (14.2 & 3.8), Quinerly (12.7) and Petty (12.3 & 5.1). Up front, 6-8 senior Jones (11.2 & 6.5) was named SCE P-O-Y and Defensive P.O.Y. plus 6-10 senior Bruner adds 6.1 & 4.2. Alabama is a 'sexy' Final 4 pick and I won't argue but putting aside all the 'baggage,' Pitino can sure "coach 'em up!" I realize Alabama is the AP's 5th-ranked team (not a member of the MAAC) but in Iona's four tourney wins, the Gaels held their opponents to 53.8 PPG on 34.6% shooting. I'm taking the HUGE points! Good luck...Larry |
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03-20-21 | Hawks v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 99-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the LA Lakers at 3:40 ET. The Atlanta Hawks fired head coach Lloyd Pierce on March 1 and replaced him with assistant coach Nate McMillan. The veteran NBA coach has turned the Hawks into the 'Utah Jazz,' as Atlanta has won SEVEN straight (longest active streak in the NBA) while going 5-1-1 ATS. The Hawks open an eight-game road trip with a visit to Staples Center for a contest with the Lakers, who are 4-0 SU & ATS since the All Star break, extending a run in which LA has gone 7-1 SU & ATS since a four-game slide from Feb 18-24. PG Trae Young (25.9-4.1-9.4) has led the Hawks all season and the Hawks also got a boost defensively from the return of center Clint Capela, who had eight points and eight rebounds in Thursday's 116-93 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Capela, who averages a double-double (14.6 & 14.1) on the season, had missed two games with left heel soreness. PF Collins (18.2 & 7.6) and SG Huerter (12.2-3.7-3.6) have been mainstays, as each has played all 41 games this season. On the injury front, PF Hunter (17.2 & 5.4) is out of commission with an articular tear in his right knee and he is not expected to return until the end of March (he's played just 18 games). Meanwhile, SF Reddish (11.2 & 4.0) has missed 15 games (last played Feb 21), as he's being held out of the lineup with a right Achilles injury and it is unclear how long he will be sidelined. Speaking of dealing with injuries, the Lakers have been without starters Anthony Davis (22.5 & 8.4) and Marc Gasol (4.8 & 4.1). Davis has missed the last 13 games with a right calf strain and the Lakers will re-evaluate Davis' potential availability at the end of the month. Gasol has missed the last six games due to the NBA's health and safety protocols. He was cleared to come out of isolation but remains in the NBA's health and safety protocols. He could be available for Saturday's game against Atlanta. As always, there is LBJ, who is averaging 25.8-8.1-8.0. Adding PG Schroder (14.8-3.4-4.7) and PF Harrell (14.3 & 6.4) during the offseason was HUGE for the Lakers plus SF Kuzma (12.1 & 6.7) is one of the NBA's more underrated players. There is NO doubt that the Hawks are on a roll but are they really playing better than the Lakers, who are now 28-13, just two games back of the Jazz for the West's No. 1 seed? The Hawks recent surge has them just 21-20 on the season and back on Feb 1 in Atlanta, the Lakers won 107-99 over the Hawks as SEVEN-point favorites. Here at home, LA is laying LESS than that! I'm on the Lakers! Good luck...Larry |
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03-20-21 | Georgetown v. Colorado -6 | Top | 73-96 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Colorado at 12:15 ET. |
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03-19-21 | Mavs -3 v. Blazers | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout of the Month is on the Dal Mavericks at 10:05 ET. The Dallas Mavericks lost at home to the Clippers on Monday but then rebounded with an impressive 105-89 victory over LA on Wednesday. They now head into another back-to-back challenge when they travel to Portland to face the Trail Blazers this weekend (Friday & Sunday). Similarly, Portland was involved in its own short series, defeating the New Orleans Pelicans 125-124 on Tuesday and prevailing again 101-93 in the rematch on Thursday (both games were played in Portland). Doncic led the Mavs into the playoffs last season (ending a three-year drought) and Dallas was expected to be a playoff regular with him as its leader. However, the Mavs saw starters like center Porzingis (20.8 & 8.4) miss 15 games, SG Richardson (13.3) miss 12, SF Finney-Smith (8.2 & 5.3) miss 13 and PF Kleber (7.3 & 5.4) miss 15. Doncic (28.5-8.4-9.3) can be unstoppable at times, like Wednesday vs the Clippers when he poured in 42 points. Porzingis (20.4 & 9.3) has been healthy lately plus 6th-man Hardaway (16.3) has been terrific all season. Hardaway started for Finney-Smith (8.2 & 5.3) Wednesday and may again as Finney-Smith is NOT expected to play. SG Richardson (13.3) and PF Kleber (7.5 & 5.4) are the team's other two starters. Guards Brunson (12.6 & 3.3 APG) and Burke (7.0) round out the main contributors The Blazers have been streaky, opening the season just 10-9 through Feb 1. However, Portland then won EIGHT of nine, before losing FOUR in a row to close February. Portland is 6-2 in March after its back-to-back wins over the Pelicans. Portland has hung tough despite CJ McCollum being out since Jan 16 (fractured left foot), while center Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) has played just 12 games (9.8 & 7.7) and PF Zach Collins (ankle) has yet to play a single game. Portland's Lillard (30.6-4.5-7.8) is a true superstar plus Trent (15.2) and Simmons (8.1) have stepped up in McCollum's absence (more shortly). The ageless Anthony adds 14.1 PPG off the bench plus PF Covington (8.5 & 6.6) and SF Jones (8.0 & 4.5) were acquired in the offseason (both are excellent defenders) and while not spectacular, have been solid contributors. Portland is currently 24-16, tied for 5th in the West with Denver), while Dallas is 21-18 (No. 8 seed, 3 1/2-games back of the Blazers). The great news for Portland is that McCollum (24.5-3.8-4.6) finally returned in the two games this week against the Pelicans, playing 23.5 MPG and averaging 10.5 PPG. However, it will take a little while for him to get back to 100%. This is an important two-game series for both teams but MORE important for Dallas. The Mavs are as healthy as they've been all season and have won 12 of 14. They could surely use a 2-0 sweep and of course, a team has to win the first of the two to be in a position for a sweep. Dallas was 10-2 from Feb 6-Mar 10, losing only at Philly (76ers are 18-4 at home) and home to these Blazers 121-118, despite Doncic outscoring Lillard 44-34. My bet says a little "payback" is in order tonight (as for Sunday???). Good luck...Larry |
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03-19-21 | Rutgers v. Clemson +2 | Top | 60-56 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Clemson at 9:20 ET. Steve Pikiell spent 11 years at Stony Brook, winning 20-plus games in his final five seasons. He led the Seawolves to an NCAA berth in 2015-16 and a 26-7 record. His first three seasons at Rutgers saw the Scarlet Knights go just 15-18, 15-19 and 14-17. However, Rutgers was 20-11 last season before the year was shut down. Rutgers jumped out to a 6-0 start this season but was only 9-11 over its last 20, giving them a 15-11 record . The Scarlet Knights enter as a No. 10 seed, returning to the NCAAs for the first time in 30 years. "It's a chance to dance," Steve Pikiell said. "It's a good time to be a Scarlet Knight." Clemson head coach Brad Brownell is in his 11th season and after a 9-1 start his Tigers were 16-7 on Selection Sunday. Clemson won SIX of its last eight games but lost to No. 13 seed Miami in its ACC tournament opener last week. However, despite that defeat, the Tigers earned a higher seed than ACC tournament champion Georgia Tech and received the third-highest seed among the league's seven NCAA Tournament teams. Clemson earned a No. 7 seed and is making its third NCAA Tournament appearance under Brownell. The last time the Tigers made the NCAA Tournament (2018), they advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing to Kansas. Rutgers has a STRONG backcourt. Harper (15.4 & 5.9) was a third-team All-Big Ten pick and is complemented by Young (14.4 & 3.5 APG), Baker (10.1-3.2-3.1), Mathis (8.5) and Mulcahy (5.8). The 6-11 Johnson (8.3 & 8.7) has been solid all season inside plus 6-11 freshman Omoruyi (4.0 & 4.0) has returned from a knee injury but hasn't quite looked the same as prior to that injury. Clemson is led by 6-6 senior forward Aamir Simms (a second-team All-ACC selection), who paced the Tigers this season in scoring (13.3), rebounding (6.2) and assists (2.7). He gets help up front from the 6-8 Tyson (7.4 & 4.3) and the 6-10 Baehere (4.4 & 3.2). Guards Honor (8.4), Trapp (7.0 & 5.4) and Hemenway (4.7) comprise Clemson's backcourt trio of contributors. Clemson looks so-so on paper but note that the Tigers own wins over two teams that won conference championships, Alabama (AP No. 5 and a No. 2 seed) and Morehead State. which shocked Belmont in the OCV tourney title game. Also, Clemson bested Big Ten opponents Purdue (a No. 4 seed) and Maryland (a No. 10 seed). Clemson allows just 61.8 PPG (12th) and ends Rutgers first trip to the Big Dance in 30 years after ONE game! Good luck...Larry |
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03-19-21 | Kings v. Celtics -7 | Top | 107-96 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* East/West Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:30 ET. The Sacramento Kings play their fourth contest of a six-game road trip tonight in Boston against the Celtics. The Kings rebounded from dropping the first two games of their trek with a 121-119 defeat of Washington on Wednesday and visited TD Garden just 16-24 on the season. Boston opened the season as one of the Eastern Conference favorites but after an 8-3 start, the Celtics have looked nothing even remotely like a contender. Boston is languishing in the lower half of the Eastern Conference playoff standings and enters tonight at .500 (20-20) after consecutive losses to Utah and Cleveland. Luke Walton is in his second season as head coach of the Kings, having gone 31-41 in last year's pandemic-shortened season. Walton's in good company, as the Kings opened this season on a run of 14 consecutive losing seasons and non-playoff appearances. PG Fox (23.7 & 7.6 APG) and Hield (16.5 & 4.6) lead the way, while three Sacramento frontcourt players are producing as well. The Kings don't have a true center, as that frontcourt trio includes 6-8 SF Barnes (16.6 & 6.2) plus 6-11 PF Bagley (13.9. & 7.4) and 6-8 PF Holmes (13.7 & 8.6). Rookie PG Haliburton ((12.7 & 5.1 APG) from Iowa St has stepped right in and looks like he'll be a quality NBA player. Boston is without post player Tristan Thompson (7.9 & 8.4) due to COVID-19 protocols plus PG Kemba Walker (17.9 & 4.5 APG) did not play against the Cavs, as has been customary for the veteran guard in the second game of back-to-backs. In Walker's absence, Jayson Tatum (25.3-6.9-4.4) and Jaylen Brown (24.3-5.4-3.9) combined for 57 points. There is good news for Boston, as the team's best perimeter defender, Marcus Smart (12.9 & 5.3 APG), has returned since the All Star break and had 19 points against Cleveland. Let me also note that the 6-8 Robert Williams (7.5 & 6.4) posted 13 points and 14 rebounds off the bench on Wednesday and could see a more prominent role down the stretch to help on the glass and defensively. Boston is NOT a .500 team and should remember losing 116-111 in Sacramento on Feb 3. The Kings are headed for another losing and non-playoff season (15th straight), while Boston should play MUCH better in the second half. Why not start here vs the Kings, who rank 29th of 30 teams in allowing 120.0 PPG plus dead-last in opponents FG percentage (49.1) and three-point percentage (39.2). Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-19-21 | North Texas v. Purdue -7 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on Purdue at 7:25 ET. North Texas won the C-USA's regular season title last year at 14-4 but the Mean Green ended this year's regular season with THREE consecutive losses. They entered the tourney at 9-5 in league play, leaving them with the West's No. 3 seed but won FOUR games in four days to capture the tourney title and an NCAA automatic bid. The 17-9 Mean Green earned a No. 13 seed, the highest seed in program history, after capturing the Conference USA tournament title with a 61-57 victory in overtime against Western Kentucky. Purdue's Matt Painter is in his 16th season with the Boilermakers but his team was just 16-14 last season, coming off a four-year run of averaging 27.3 wins per season. However, after a modest 7-5 start this season, Purdue won 11 of its final 15 games and at 18-9, earned a No. 4 seed. North Texas is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010. PG Hamlet (15.0-3.3-4.5) and fellow guard Reese (10.8 & 4.5) join plus frontcourt players Simmons (10.3 & 6.2) and Bell (10.3 & 5.7) in double figures. Those four continued to lead the way in North Texas' four-game tourney run, as Hamlet (18.5-6.5-7.0) was named C-USA tournament MVP while Simmons (10.8 & 5.8) was named to the all-tournament team. Bell added 10.3 & 5.3) plus Reese 10.8 & 4.5. Purdue had its five-game winning streak snapped with a hard-fought 87-78 overtime loss to Ohio State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament but this team has improved game-by-game over the season. The 6-10 Williams, a first-team All-Big Ten selection, leads Purdue in scoring (15.6) and rebounding (9.0). He's supported by a well-balanced group of FIVE others who chip in between 8.3 and 10.5 PPG. The group includes guards Ivey (10.5 & 3.4), Stefanovic (9.3), Hunter (8.8) and Newman (8.3 & 3.6), plus 7-3 freshman Edey (9.0 & 4.5). The 6-6 Gillis (5.1 & 3.9) and the 6-9 Wheeler (3.9 & 4.6) also help Williams up front. Williams was terrific with 26 points, 14 rebounds and five assists in the loss to Ohio St, while Ivey added 19 points "When you have to win four games in four days and the last one is against a program like Western Kentucky who we have the utmost respect for as a team, as a staff and as a program with history, we knew it was going to be a fight," North Texas head coach Grant McCasland said. "We came here, despite losing three straight and having to win four games in four days, with the expectation we were going to win. So we're going to go to the NCAA Tournament with the expectation to win." That sounds great but North Texas got a bad 'draw' in Purdue. The Boilermakers are not exactly playing at home but playing at Lucas Oils Stadium, where the Big Ten tourney was just played, doesn't hurt. Purdue could have easily beaten Ohio St and this team has a deep 'well' of talent led by the outstanding Williams and coached by Painter, who led the Boilermakers to SIX straight NCAA tourneys. His last three tourney trips have led to two Sweet 16 appearances and an Elite 8 one. First things FIRST. Purdue wins this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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03-19-21 | Cleveland State +20.5 v. Houston | Top | 56-87 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Cleveland St at 7:15 ET. No one should have been surprised by what Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, after successful stops at Washington St, Oklahoma and Indiana. His first Houston team went 13-19 (2014-15) but FIVE straight 20-win seasons followed. The Cougars won 27 (2017-18) and 33 (2018-19) games, before going 23-8 in last season's pandemic shortened one. Houston took another step forward this season by winning the AAC tourney with a blowout 91-54 victory over Cincinnati, after losing the previous two seasons in the title game to the Bearcats. 24-3 Houston heads into the "Big Dance" ranked No. 6 in the nation while earning a No. 2 seed. Waiting for the Cougars will be 19-7 Cleveland St, after its three-game run to the Horizon League tourney title. Cleveland St last made the "Big Dance" back in 2009 and the school's only other appearance was the 1986 team which famously upset Bobby Knight's Indiana team and reached the Sweet 16. How 'sweet' is this year's NCAA appearance for the Vikings, coming on the heels of FIVE straight losing seasons of nine, nine, 12, 10 and 11 wins? Cleveland State head coach Dennis Gates, a two-time Horizon League Coach of the Year honoree in as many seasons, led the Vikings into the Horizon League tournament as the top seed and capped it by defeating Oakland 80-69 in the championship game. Cleveland St features a solid group of four guards in the starting lineup, led by 6-5 senior Patton, who leads in scoring (14.9) and rebounding (8.0). Joining him in the starting lineup are fellow guards Hodge (10.5 & 3.7), Gomillion (10.5 & 5.2) and Beaudion (9.6 & 3.4 APG) plus the 6-9 Johnson (5.5 & 5.4). 6-8 senior Eichelberger averaged a modest 5.5 & 3.3 in 15 regular season games but averaged 10.0 PPG in the team's three tourney games. Houston guards Grimes (18.0 & 6.0), Sasser (13.7) and Jarreau (11.0-5.5-4.4) are the 'big dogs,' while freshman Mark (8.1) adds depth. The best frontcourt player is the 6-7 Gorham (8.6 & 9.0). However, Houston wins with a defense allowing 57.6 PPG (1st) on 37.0% shooting (also 1st), including 27.4% on threes (4th). Grimes was the American Athletic Conference Co-Player of the Year, guard Jarreau (Defensive Player of the Year) and forward Gorham (Most Improved Player). However, in the NCAA Tournament upsets happen, and Sampson is aware that taking opportunities for granted is a dangerous endeavor. Cleveland State will always own a place in NCAA Tournament lore as a March Madness darling because of its magical run to the Sweet 16 in 1986. The Vikings became the first 14 seed to advance to the second weekend by upsetting the third-seeded Hoosiers before ousting St. Joseph's in the second round. Cleveland State then fell to Navy, and future NBA Hall of Fame center David Robinson, to end their memorable run. "Win one for the Gipper" is one of the more famous sports quotes but how about "Win one for Kevin Mackey?" He coached Cleveland St in its magical 1986 tourney run and with some of his several low moments of his life having been made public, it's be nice to hear his name mentioned again, which it would be, if the Vikings pull an upset. That may be a 'bridge too far" but taking about three 'TDs' is not! Good luck...Larry |
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03-19-21 | Wisconsin v. North Carolina -1.5 | Top | 85-62 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on North Carolina at 7:10 ET. Wisconsin has had a terrific basketball program for decades and Greg Gard is in his sixth season at Madison, having had FOUR 20-win seasons in his first five. Wisconsin was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll and began the season with FIVE seniors starters. The Badgers were 13-4 (7-3 Big Ten) in late January but really stumbled down the stretch. They lost EIGHT of their final 12 games but didn't fall out of the top25 until the March 8th poll (second-to-last). North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams came off a 14-19 season last year in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. The Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll but never lived up to their preseason ranking, falling out in Dec 28th's poll and never returned. North Carolina did play better down the stretch winning SIX of nine and will enter the "Big Dance" at 18-10 and with an 8-seed (Wisconsin is seeded 9th). Wisconsin's FIVE seniors are guards Trice (13.7-3.4-4.0) and Davison (9.4 & 3.4) plus the 6-10 Potter (12.8 & 5.9), the 6-8 Ford (8.7 & 4.2) and the 6-11 Reuvers (8.2 & 3.2). 6-5 freshman Davis (7.0 & 4.1) and 6-9 sophomore Wahl (5.3 & 4.5) have both been regular contributors. North Carolina's strength is its depth. SEVEN players are making contributions. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (12.2 & 8.0), the 6-10 Brooks (10.2 & 6.8) and the 6-11 Sharpe (9.7 & 7.8), while the backcourt goes four-deep. The group includes Love (10.5 & 3.6 APG), Davis (8.6), Walton (8.2) and Black (5.3 & 5.0). The Badgers enter the NCAAs having FOUR of their last five games but each of their four losses came to a nationally ranked opponent. The lone victory was a one-point decision against Penn State in last week's Big Ten tournament. That said, this Wisconsin team just hasn't looked good for about the last SIX weeks. Meanwhile, North Carolina had averaging 91.0 PPG in a three-game winning streak before running into Florida St. Wisconsin is one of only FIVE schools selected for the NCAA Tournament 21 times across a 22-year span but the Badgers stay in the 2021 tourney won't last past Friday. Good luck...Larry |
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03-19-21 | Virginia Tech +1 v. Florida | Top | 70-75 | Loss | -118 | 72 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Va Tech at 12:15 ET. 14-9 Florida earned a No. 7 seed and will take on 15-6 Virginia Tech (No. 10 seed) in the opening game of the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday in Indianapolis. Both Florida and Va Tech are in the "Big Dance" for the fourth consecutive time but the two schools are meeting for the first time since 1991. It marks Florida's 21st NCAA appearance (Gators won back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007) and the Hokies are 'dancing' for the 12th time. Mike White took over in Gainesville after Billy Donovan took the job with OKC in the NBA and won 20-plus games his first four seasons. The team was 19-12 when last year's season was shut down and COVID issues have limited the Gators to just 23 games this season. 6-5 SF Johnson 14.0 & 7.1 LY) was the SEC's preseason P-O-Y was lost just FOUR games into this season. Of the six players averaging 20-plus minutes, FOUR are guards. Tre Mann (16.0-5.7-3.4) leads a backcourt that also features Appleby (11.4-3.0-3.3), Locke (10.4) and Lewis (7.9). The 65-11 Castleton (12.0 & 5.9) and the 6-7 Duruji (5.9 & 4.3). The Gators have dropped THREE of their last four games, losing to Missouri and twice to Tennessee. The lone win came in the SEC tourney when they beat Vandy, who at 3-13, finished last in the 14-team conference Va Tech head coach Mike Young is in his second season with the school, after a record-setting 17-year tenure as the head coach at Wofford. Young built the Terriers into one of the Southern Conference's preeminent programs and a perennial NCAA Tournament participant. He guided Wofford to five NCAA Tournament berths over his last 10 seasons and five Southern Conference championships. The Hokies were just 16-16 overall in Young's first season at Blacksburg, losing almost two-thirds of their ACC games (7-13). However, despite fighting COVID-19 protocols, Va Tech was 15-5 and earned the ACC's third-seed (9-4) in the tourney. Landers Nolley was selected to the ACC All-Freshman Team in leading the Hokies in scoring (15.5 PPG) last season but after the season he announced he was transferring to Memphis. More bad news came when the 6-6 Horne (7.6 & 4.2) also transferred. Sophomore guard Tyrece Radford (10.2 & 6.2) was both the team's leading returning scorer AND rebounder! Radford has averaged 11.9 & 6.1 and the 6-9 Alleyne (10.3) has made excellent progress in his sophomore season. Two 6-7 transfers start up front. The 6-7 Keve Aluma (15.6 & 8.0) followed Young from Wofford and is Va Tech's best player this season, while 6-7 Delaware transfer Justyn Mutts (9.6 & 6.5) has been solid. Returning guards Cone (9.2) and Cottoor (8.4) have both been solid. Virginia Tech had five games canceled over the final month of the regular season and ended up playing just TWICE in a 38-day span leading up to its 81-73 loss to North Carolina in the Atlantic Coast Conference quarterfinals on March 11. That said, the Hokies have a much better frontcourt than the Gators and while Mann will be the game's best guard, Va Tech's overall backcourt matches up well against Florida's. The Hokies have spent the last 13 weeks ranked in the AP's top-25 poll, while the Gators never ONCE cracked the top-25. That makes this game a toss-up? NOT! Good luck...Larry |
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03-18-21 | UCLA v. Michigan State -1.5 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -115 | 82 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* First Four Game of the Year is on Michigan St at 9:57 ET. The NCAA announced that the tournament would expand to 68 teams with four "Play-In Games" beginning with the 2011 tournament. The 2021 First Four will feature a matchup of two teams that historically speaking, are more accustomed to Final Fours than play-in games. 17-9 UCLA and 15-12 Michigan State will square off Thursday night in a battle for the East's No. 11 seed from Mackey Arena, the home to Purdue basketball. UCLA (in its 50th NCAA tournament) owns 11 NCAA titles but all but one came back in the John Wooden era (10 wins in a 12-year span from 1964 to 1975). Michigan State extended its streak to 23 straight NCAA Tournaments, the fourth-longest in NCAA history behind Kansas (31 from 1990-2021), North Carolina (27 from 1975-2001 and Duke (24, from 1996-2019). Michigan State (34th all-time appearance) has made 10 trips to the Final Four (first in 1957 and most recently in 2019), winning national titles in 1979 and 2000. Mick Cronin coached at Cincinnati for 13 seasons, leading the Bearcats to the "Big Dance" in each of his last nine years, while averaging 26.1 wins per season in that span. His first year as UCLA's head coach ended 19-12, including a 12-6 Pac-12 record (season was shut down last March). This year's team enters 17-9, after losing their last four games. UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Jan 30 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging in double digits. PG Campbell (10.5 & 5.6 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Zuzang (14.0 & 4.1), the 6-6 Jaquez (11.7 & 6.0) and the 6-6 Bernard (10.4 & 4.8). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.2 & 5.2) up front. Tom Izzo took over at Michigan St to open the 1995-96 season and his first 23 23 straight NCAA appearance began in his third year at East Lansing. He's been to EIGHT Final Fours but has won just once, back in 2000. The Spartans spent much of the last month of the regular season sweating over their NCAA Tournament chances but in the end, 'snuck in!' The 6-6 Henry leads Michigan St in scoring (15.3), rebounding (5.7) and assists (3.5) and is joined in the frontcourt by the 6-9 Hauser (9.7 & 5.7), the 6-7 Brown (7.2 & 2.8) and the 6-7 Hall (4.8 & 4.1). The starting guards are Langford (9.6 & 3.4) and Watts (7.7). UCLA stumbled terribly down the stretch, not just losing its last four games but going a pathetic 3-11 ATS over its 14 previous games. As for Michigan St, the Spartans were just 10-9 after a Feb 16 loss at Purdue, but would go 5-2 over its final seven regular-season games, including THREE wins over teams ranked in the top-five at the time. Yes, MSU lost to Maryland in the Big Ten tourney but compared to the way UCLA stumbled down the stretch, the Spartans look like Gonzaga! If one believes in omens, they could be note that the Bruins last won an NCAA tournament game in 2017 when they defeated Cincinnati, then coached by current UCLA coach Mick Cronin. Sounds cute but I'm NOT 'buying' this UCLA bunch. Izzo and the Spartans move on to face BYU. Good luck...Larry |
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03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | Top | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Wichita St at 6:27 ET. Both Drake and Wichita St were thrilled to get at-large berths in this year's NCAA tourney and will square off tonight from Mackey Arena (home to Purdue's Boilermakers) in one of four First Four contests (winner enters the 1st round as an 11-seed. Drake raced to a 18-0 start this season and finished 25-4, with TWO of its four losses coming to MVC rival Loyola-Chicago, which won the regular season and tourney titles this season (the Ramblers are 24-4 and ranked 17th in the AP's final regular season poll). Wichita State got the No. 1 seed for the American Athletic Conference tourney at 9-2, over highly-ranked Houston, which was 14-3. However, when the Shockers lost to Cincinnati in the semifinals of Arch Madness, they were squarely "on the bubble'" for Selection Sunday. Drake head coach Darian DeVries led the Bulldogs to 24 and 20-win seasons in his first two seasons at Drake but the Bulldogs entered this season as a middle-of-the-pack preseason pick in the MVC. However, as noted, opened 18-0. Drake has featured a seven-man rotation for most of this season, led by 6-6 forward Hemphill (14.1 & 6.3). Then there are guards Yesufu (12.1), Penn (11.2-3.3 5.5) and Wilkins (10.6) plus 6-6 forward Murphy (10.2 & 5.2). Guard Sturtz (8.4 & 5.6) and the 6-10 Brodie (7.3 & 7.2) round of the main contributors. However, Hemphill has been sidelined since Feb 10 with a foot injury and Penn was lost for the season in late-February. Wichita St's season was marred before it got started, as head coach Gregg Marshall resigned after multiple allegations of verbal and physical abuse spanning years on November 17, 2020. Marshall's success started at Winthrop (seven NCAA berths in nine years) and continued at Wichita St, winning the NIT title in 2011 then winning 30-plus games in three straight seasons, including a Final 4 appearance in 2013. Lead assistant Isaac Brown was named interim head coach and the Shockers were picked seventh in a preseason poll. Brown had to smooth over a contentious locker room frustrated by interactions involving Marshall and the uncertainty created by the offseason departure of six players. However, he's done just that. The Shockers are a deep team this season, led by a quartet of guards in Etienne (17.0), UConn transfer Gilbert (10.3-3.1-4.1) and Dennis (9.4 & 4.3) and Council (7.5 & 3.5). The top frontcourt performers are the 6-8 Udeze (9.8 & 4.7), the 6-6 Wade (6.8 & 5.6) and 6-7 JUCO transfer Jackson (5.3 & 4.3). The word is the Drake's Hemphill will play in tonight's game but he hasn't played in any of the Bulldogs' last 10 games (anyone's guess as to his effectiveness)."When I first took the job, those (players) had come here to play for a Hall of Fame coach," Brown said. "I wasn't sure who was going to come back. We had a couple guys that talked about opting out. The first meeting, all I talked about was the staff and how we were going to give those guys 110 percent every day." The respect and affection Brown gained could be seen in two responses captured on video -- the first when players learned their coach signed his new five-year deal and the second when the Shockers erupted making the NCAA Tournament. The berth is the EIGHTH for Wichita State in the last nine NCAA tournaments. Drake is is the WRONG place at the WRONG time! Good luck...Larry |
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03-17-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +3 | Top | 89-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Dal Mavs at 9:35 ET. The Clippers lost at home to the Mavs back on Dec 27 by the scorer of 124-73. That 51-point loss was the most lopsided defeat in franchise history. The Clippers visited Dallas Monday, coming off an embarrassing 135-115 lost in New Orleans against the Pelicans the night before. The Clippers entered Monday's game without Patrick Beverley (knee) and Serge Ibaka (back), so they gave Zubac his second start of the season plus Marcus Morris made just his third. Nicolas Batum was healthy, but he was dropped into a reserve role after starting his first 37 games this season. The result? A 109-99 win over Dallas, which entered that contest having won 11 of its 14 games. After allowing New Orleans to score 135 points on Sunday, the Clippers held Dallas to under 100 points on Monday. The Mavericks did not score a point in the final 3:15, committing two turnovers and going 0-of-5 from the floor in the closing minutes. The same two teams meet again tonight, again in Dallas. The Clippers are currently the West's no. 4 seed, 1 /2-games back of the Suns and Lakers, plus four games back of the top-seeded Jazz. Kawhi (26.4-6.4-4.8) and George (22.9-6.1-5.3) are LA's "Dynamic Duo" but Kawhi's missed eight games and George 11. However, one is never quite sure when 'load management' will raise its ugly head. The rearranged lineup worked well on Monday, with Zubac (8.2 & 7.0) scoring 15 points with 11 rebounds, Morris (11.9 & 3.7) added 14 points and six rebounds, while Batum (8.9 & 4.7) was effective in his bench role, making 4-of-6 three-point attempts for 12 points. All numbers were above the season averages for each player. Doncic led the Mavs into the playoffs last season (ending a three-year drought) and Dallas was expected to be a playoff regular with him as its leader. However, the Mavs saw starters like center Porzingis (20.8 & 8.4) miss 15 games, SG Richardson (13.3) miss 12, SF Finney-Smith (8.2 & 5.3) miss 12 and PF Kleber (7.3 & 5.4) miss 15. Doncic (28.1-8.5-9.30 has missed six games and 6th-man Hardaway (16.3) has only missed four. All starters are now healthy plus swingman Hardaway is joined off the bench by guards Brunson (12.8-3/4-3/4) and Burke (7.1). The Mavs enter this contest 20-18 (No. 8 seed) but are just 2 1/2-games back of the 5th-seeded Nuggets. Dallas has its preferred starting lineup back intact and came into Monday's contest averaging 115.7 PPG in its previous 14 games. Expect a big "bounce-back" effort here by the Mavs, who will be the more motivated side in this one. Any points are just a bonus. Good luck...Larry |
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03-17-21 | Western Kentucky +2 v. St. Mary's | Top | 69-67 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* NIT 1st Round Game of the Year is on Western Ky at 9:00 ET. The 2021 NIT is down to just 16 teams, down from its usual number of 32. Much like the NCAA Tournament, the NIT will also be held in a single area as the event will be held in the cities of Frisco and Denton, Texas. The 20-7 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the 14-9 St Mary’s Gaels meet in an NIT first round matchup from the Comerica Center (Frisco) on Wednesday night. Western Ky's head coach Rick Stansberry spent 14 seasons at Miss St going to 11 postseasons, including five NCAAs. He came to Western Ky back in the 2016-17 season and entered the current season off three consecutive 20-wins seasons (67-35 overall) and had all FIVE starters returning. 6-11 center Bassey (17.7 & 11.5) is a dominant force but his only help upfront is from 6-5 SF Williams (7.5 & 5.3). However, the Hilltoppers have excellent depth on the perimeter with Hollingsworth (13.6), Anderson (9.2 & 4.0), Rawls (8.0), Frampton (7.4) and PG McKnight (5.9-3.7-3.9). The Hilltoppers finished with an 11-3 mark in C-USA play to finish atop the C-USA East division. They beat UTSA and UAB in the conference tourney but lost the title game in OT to North Texas. Randy Bennett has been head coach at St Mary's since the 2001-02 season and entered this season with a 440-1982 (.707) record. The Gaels posted their 13th season of 20-plus wins last year, as they were 26-8 when COVID shut things down. Would the Gaels have gotten an NCAA bid? Bennett and his various teams know all about NCAA snubs, as SIX times in the previous 12 seasons, his team had been denied an NCAA bid despite seasons of 28, 25, 23, 21, 29 and 30 wins. No Kidding! Gone from last season's team are guard Ford (21,9) and forward Fitts (16.5 & 7.1). The Gaels never got in a groove in a season marred by COVID postponements. Guards Johnson (13.5) and Kuhse (12.6-3.7-4.8) comprise a solid backcourt, while the 6-10 Tass (10.8 & 5.2) and the 6-7 Futu (8.4 & 5.1) are the team's best frontcourt contributors. St Mary's was 11-5 when the Gaels were forced to the sidelines, not playing a game from Jan 24 through Feb 12. The Gaels would finish on a 3-4 run, including a win and a loss in the WCC tourney. Saint Mary’s is a small favorite here on name-recognition only. This year's team is nowhere near in the class of last season's 26-win one, with the loss of Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts from last year’s team. Western Ky is the better team and owns the best (most dominant) player on the court in Bassey. Points are nothing but a bonus, as Western Ky wins handedly! Good luck...Larry |
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03-15-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Warriors | Top | 128-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The defending champion Lakers won SEVEN straight games from through Feb 12 and stood at 21-6 (only the 21-5 Jazz had a better record). However, in LA's 122-105 loss at Denver on Feb 14, A.D. (22.5 & 8.4) was lost to a right calf strain that has forced him to miss the last nine games. Including the loss to Denver, the Lakers lost SEVEN of 10 to end the first half. The Lakers returned to edge the Pacers last Friday but needed a 34-21 fourth quarter to win by five points. The Lakers take to the court for just the second since the break when they play in San Francisco tonight against the Warriors. The Warriors were an NBA-worst 15-50 last season but have been competitive this season, although they had lost FOUR in a row before snapped that four-game skid with Sunday's 131-119 home triumph over Utah, the team with the NBA's best record of 28-10. Golden St moved to 20-19 with the win and the Warriors are currently the West's NO. 9 seed (seeds 7 through 10 will qualify for the NBA's "Play-In" postseason format). It doesn't appear Davis (strained right calf) will be back anytime soon. The club announced last week that he won't even be re-evaluated until close to the end of the month, meaning an April comeback would be an optimistic outlook. LBJ has missed just one game and leads the team with a line of 25.6-7.9-7.8. The offseason addition of starting PG Schroder (14.8-3.5-4.5) and PF Harrell, who comes off the bench to average 13.9 & 6.4, have been huge. Klye Kuzma (11.6 & 6.8) is often overlooked but note that he and 24 points and 13 rebounds vs Indiana plus in the Lakers' final game before the All-Star break, had a 25-point, 13-rebound double-double at Sacramento. The Warriors got a game-high 32 points from Stephen Curry vs the Jazz on Sunday plus a season-best 28 points from Andrew Wiggins Curry (29.3-5.4-6.3), Wiggins (17.2 & 4.5), Oubre (15.2 & 6.0) and the "do-everything" Green (6.1-6.2-8.5) have been Kerr's "Core 4" this season. The team's 1st-round draft pick Wiseman (12.0 & 5.9) has shown potential but injuries plus a recently missed COVID test keeps Kerr only guardedly optimistic. Veteran swingman Bazemore (6.4) and Lee (6.3) plus 6-6 second-year pro Paschall (9.6 & 3.2) add depth. The Warriors surprised the defending champs 115-113 in January, before the Lakers exacted a measure of revenge in a 117-91 blowout on Feb 28. However, I feel as if this is a great spot for LA, catching Golden St in the second of back-to-back games, in which the Warriors just upset the Jazz. As for LA, it's just the team's SECOND game in the last 12 days because of the All Star break. Don't forget, LA is 13-5 on the road, tied with the Suns for the NBA's best road record. Good luck...Larry |
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03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | Top | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Pho Suns at 10:05 ET. The Suns went 8-0 SU & ATS in last year's Orlando 'bubble' and many (most) felt as if Phoenix would seriously contend for a playoff spot in the Western Conference in the 2020-21 season, likely ending a 10-year postseason drought. However, the Suns exceeded expectations in the first half of the current season by entering the All Star break at 24-11. Only the Jazz owned a better record in the entire NBA, while Phoenix was also an NBA-best 24-11 ATS. The Memphis Grizzlies opened the season off three straight losing and non-playoff seasons but had last year's ROY in Ja Morant plus a very deep team. However, Jaren Jackson (17.4 & 4.0) had meniscus surgery on his left knee and has yet to play (reports say he may be back before the end of the season). Looking at the Memphis roster shows that SIX players are averaging in double digits, led by PG Morant (19.8 & 7.8 APG) and veteran center Valanciunas (16.0 & 11.7). Books (15.9), Anderson (13.0-5.9-3.4), Clarke (12.2 & 5.8) and Melton (10.2) complete the double digit scorers. What's more, SIX more players chip in between 6.7 and 9.8 PPG, including SF Winslow who finally got back on the court in late-February and has averaged 8.8 & 5.4 in nine games. So why are the Grizzlies just 17-18. The Suns have been healthy for MOST of the season and Chris Paul (15.8-4.7-8.8) has surely given the Suns all that they had hoped for when they traded for him in the offseason. Devon Booker had averaged 26.6 PPG the two seasons before Paul arrived and still leads the team at 25.1 PPG (very little drop-off). Center Ayton hasn't missed a game while averaging a double-double (14.4 & 11.2) plus SF's Bridges and Johnson (both former 1st round picks) are adding 13.8 & 4.9 and 10.4 & 3.4, respectively. Veteran PF Saric (11.7 & 4.1) and SF Crowder (10.0 & 5.0) give Phoenix SEVEN players in double digits. The Grizzlies opened the second half by beating Washington but have then lost 103-102 at home to the Nuggets and last night, lost 128-122 at OKC. The Grizzlies held a 10-point lead after three quarters but were outscored 38-22 in the final quarter by the Thunder. They now back again tonight at Phoenix and will be catching the Suns off a surprising 122-111 home loss to the Pacers. It marked just the FOURTH loss in the last 21 games for Phoenix. Devin Booker provided a succinct analysis for the defeat. "I think they just played harder than us beginning to end, simple as that," he said. This is the WRONG place at the WRONG time for the Grizz. B-L-O-W-O-U-T Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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03-14-21 | Raptors v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 95-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Chi Bulls at 9:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors won the NBA title in 2019 and even without Kawhi, finished with the NBA's second-best regular season record last season. This year's 72-game season opened right before Christmas but the Raptors knew the 2020-21 season could be a "trying one, "as due to COVID travel restrictions, the Raptors would be playing their 'home' games in Tampa. The Raptors stumbled to a 2-8 start but did climb back to 17-17 by the end of February. However, bad luck struck again, as the Raptors are currently on a FOUR-game slide with COVID "wreaking havoc" on the team's schedule with two games being postponed (Feb 28 and Mar 2) plus the Raptors currently have FIVE players sidelined while adhering to the league's health and safety protocols. Toronto will be without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, Malachi Flynn and Patrick McCaw (more in a bit). As for the Bulls, Billy Donovan took over a team that had gone 71-158 the previous three seasons, so Chicago's 16-20 mark may not seem very impressive but its .444 winning percentage is a 'step in the right direction' from a three-season winning percentage of just .310. In fact, Chicago is in a virtual tie with the 17-21 (.447) Raptors for the 10th and final seed in the East's four-team "Play-In" bracket (includes 7 thru 10 seeds). When healthy, the Raptors own a formidable lineup but head coach Nick Nurse has already said that FIVE players (see above) will miss Sunday's game. The losses are HUGE, as guard VanVleet (20.1-4.4-6.6) and PF Siakam (20.1-7.5-4.9) are All Star-caliber players, while Anunoby (13.8 & 5.3) has developed into a solid SF in the NBA. Strating in Toronto's last game were Baynes (6.3 & 5.6), Bembry (4.8) and Johnson (3.1). OUCH! A close look at Chicago reveals that SIX players are averaging in double digits plus four more add between 7.0 and 9.8 PPG. LaVine (28.5-5.2-5.2) and White (16.1-4.9-5.9) comprise an outstanding backcourt, while the following four frontcourt players join them in double figures; the 7-0 Markkanen (19.4 & 5.9), the 6-8 Young (12.2 & 6.1), the 6-10 Carter (11.8 & 7.9) and the 6-8 Porter (10.5 & 5.9) Note that FIVE of the above six (exception is Young) are all former first-round draft picks! Toronto had allowed 127.3 PPG in the first three of its four-game slide but 'held' Charlotte to just 114 points in last night's 10-point loss. However, the Hornets 'let their foot off the pedal' in the fourth quarter, scoring just 16 points after scoring 98 points through the first three. The final margin was still 10 points, even with the Raptors outscoring the Hornets by 16 points in the 4th. No reason for the Raptors to be competitive in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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03-14-21 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -2.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Game of the Year (A-10 Tourney) is on St Bonaventure at 1:00 ET. The VCU Rams returned just one starter from last season but is in the A-10 championship game with a 19-6 record (is the No. 2 seed at 10-4 during the regular season). In contrast, the St. Bonaventure Bonnies returned all five starters and earned the league's No. 1 seed with an 11-4 A-10 regular season record. Like VCU, St Bonny's has won two tourney games and enters this title-game matchup with a 15-4 overall record. The schools split two regular season matchups (each won at home) but this game will be played at the University of Dayton Arena in Ohio. The A-10 has an odd tourney format, as the semifinals were played a week ago Saturday (Mar 6), meaning both schools have had a full week off since they last played. Mike Rhoades came to VCU prior to the start of the 2017-218 season and a win here will get him and his team into their second NCAA tourney in his four-year tourney (2018-19 team won 28 games). SG Hyland was the team's lone returning starter and he's led the way all season averaging 19.4 & 4.7). The sophomore is joined by freshman PG Baldwin (6.8-3.2-4.4). The Rams get production from four frontcourt players, the 6-6 Williams (10.6 & 5.1), the 6-7 Watkins (7.4 & 2.7), the 6-8 Stockard (6.6 & 2.4) and the 6-9 Ward (6.5 & 5.2). Mark Schmidt has been at St Bonny's since the 2007-08 season and a win here would mark just his THIRD trip to the "Big Dance " (made it in 2012 and 2018). Expectations were high for the Bonnies with those FIVE returning starters and that group has all averaged in double figures. The 6-10 Osunniyi (10.3 & 9.3) is joined by four guards. PG Lofton (14.2-3.5-5.5) leads the way, followed by Holmes (13.8 & 5.3), Addaway (12.4 & 6.1) and Welch (11.6 & 6.2). Note that other than PG Lofton, the other three guards all average between 5.3 and 6.2 PRPG (impressive!). St Bonny's is the more balanced team and veteran team, as all five starters are juniors. In contrast, VCU's starting backcourt features a sophomore and freshman (its PG). I give an edge to the more experienced team off this one week layoff plus the LONE player for the Rams to average more than double digits in the team's two cA-10 tourney wins has been Hyland (21.0 PPG / 7.5 RPG). Meanwhile, all five of St Bonny's players have averaged in double digits in the tourney (just like the regular season), led in scoring by Addaway's 14.5 PPG, in rebounding by Osunniyi's 9.5 RPG and by the outstanding overall play of PG Lofton (11.5-7.5-5.5). All things considered, the 'price' seems like a bargain! Good luck...Larry |
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03-13-21 | North Texas v. Western Kentucky | Top | 61-57 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Western Ky at 9:00 ET. The 20-6 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the 16-9 North Texas Mean Green meet in the Conference USA championship game from the Ford Center (Evansville, In) on Saturday night. That Western Ky is here is no surprise, as the Hilltoppers returned all five starters from last year's 20-10 team but North Texas making it this far is a surprise. Yes, North Texas won the C-USA's regular season title last year at 14-4 but the Mean Green ended this year's regular season with THREE consecutive losses. They entered the tourney at 9-5 in league play, leaving them with the West's No. 3 seed. Western Ky owned the league's best record (11-3) and was the East's No. 1 seed. Five players on North Texas have participated in all 25 games, a trio of guards and the 6-6 Bell (10.4 & 5.6) and the 6-10 Simmons (10.3 & 6.2). The guards are leading scorer Hamlet (14.8-3.3-4.5), Reese (11.0 & 4.3) and McBride (7.0). Western KY's 6-11 center Bassey (17.9 & 11.5) is a dominant force but his only help upfront is from 6-5 SF Williams (7.5 & 5.4). However, the Hilltoppers have excellent depth on the perimeter with Hollingsworth (13.9, Anderson (9.0 & 4.0), Rawls (7.9), Frampton (7.6) and McKnight (6.0-3.8-4.0). Stepping up in three straight wins for North Texas has been Hamlet (18.0 PPG), plus frontcourt players Bell (11.7 & 4.0) and Simmons (10.3 & 6.0). However, Western Ky's Bassey has dominated in the Hilltoppers two tourney wins, averaging 21.5 & 8.0, while PG McKnight has really come through (11.0-5.0-6.0)! North Texas and Western Ky were scheduled to play Feb 20 and 22 at Denton, Tx but those games were postponed and never made up. The two schools now meet with the C-USA's automatic bid on the line (no at-large bid coming for the loser). North Texas is playing its FOURTH game in as many days and will now have to beat the league's best team during the regular season, one which owns the league's best play (Bassey) and owns 11 wins in its last 13 (one loss at now-No. 7 Houston in a non-conference game and a two-point loss to Old Dominion. Not sure why this game is basically a pick'em? With a salute to Jim McDaniels (star of Western Ky's 1971 Final 4 team), I'll take Western Ky! Good luck...Larry |
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03-13-21 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State -4 | Top | 80-75 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Game of the Month is on Florida St at 8:30 ET. Ga Tech head coach Josh Pastner is in his fifth season with the Yellow Jackets, after SEVEN years at Memphis. His first four seasons did not go well (just 65-67) and the Yellow Jackets opened this season 0-2, losing home games to Ga State and Mercer. However, the Yellow Jackets finished the regular season 15-8, including 11-6 in the ACC. Think that's NOT a big deal. The Yellow Jackets were more than three games above .500 in ACC play for the first time in 25 years (March 3, 1996)!! "We've now learned how to win," Pastner said. The Yellow Jackets have recorded a winning record in ACC regular-season play in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1989 and 1990."That's 30 years," Pastner added. "That's a great accomplishment for this program, for this team." The Yellow Jackets (No. 4 seed) got a bye into the quarterfinals, where they drew 13th-seeded Miami, off an upset of Clemson. Ga Tech was unimpressive in a 70-66 win but the Yellow Jackets were then able to advance to the ACC championship game when top-seeded UVA dropped out of the tourney on Friday (COVID strikes again!). Waiting for Ga Tech will be No. 15 Florida St (ACC's No. 2 seed). Florida State was supposed to play Duke in Thursday's quarterfinals but Duke dropped out due to a positive test in the team's program. FSU advanced to take on red-hot UNC, which entered Friday's game averaging 91.0 PPG over a three-game winning streak. Florida State squandered a 13-point lead, then rallied from five down midway through the second half to grind out a 69-66 win. Anthony Polite hit the go-ahead three-pointer with 2:06 left and the 7-1 Koprivica had career highs of 17 points and 11 rebounds for his second career double-double. Ga Tech lacks depth but has a solid five-man rotation. Returning PG Alvarado (15.4-3.5-4.2) and SG Devoe (14.9-4.4-3.3) have been excellent plus returning 6-9 big man Wright leads in scoring (17.5) and rebounding (8.0). 6-7 USC transfer Usher (11.3 & 4.2) helps out up front plus VMI transfer Parham (6.8) adds to the team's backcourt depth. The 6-7 Moore (4.6 & 3.1) is the lone reserve making any real contributions. FSU entered this season losing three key players from last year's 26-5 team (more in a bit). PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0), who were all chosen in the NBA draft. However, guard MJ Walker is back and leads with 12.9 PPG. He's surrounded by a talented and deep group. The 6-8 Gray (12.1 & 6.8) and 6-9 freshman Barnes (10.5-4.3-4.3) join Walker in double digits plus guard Polite (9.4 & 4.4) and the 7-1 Koprivica (9.2 & 5.7) aren't far behind. Guards Calhoun (6.0) and Evans (5.8) plus the 6-9 Osborne (5.6 & 4.5) give this team a deep bench. Is Ga Tech and Pastner really ready for "primetime?" The Yellow Jackets have reached the ACC title game by beating only a Miami-Fla team that ended the regular season 4-15 in ACC play and 10-17, overall. AND, that "W" came by just FOUR points! Meanwhile. FSU just held a red-hot North Carolina team (averaging 91 PPG its last three) to 66 points on 33.8% shooting on Friday. As for the Seminoles, Florida St head coach Leonard Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that had produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools heading into the current season, behind only Duke and Virginia since 2016. The Seminoles were 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic last year. Could this year "be the year?" FSU couldn't ask for a better title-game matchup. Good luck...Larry |
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03-13-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -1.5 | Top | 86-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Texas at 6:00 ET. The top two seeds are out of contention in the Big 12 Conference tournament. Top-seed Baylor (No.2 in the AP) was upset last night 83-74 by No. 12 Oklahoma St (No. 5 seed), while No. 11 Kansas (No. 2 seed) dropped out of the tourney due to COVID protocols before its game with No. 13 Texas (No. 3 seed). Cade Cunningham, who many (most) expect to be the NBA's No. 1 pick in the 2021 Draft, ignited a second-half comeback to KO Baylor. Cunningham (19.8 & 6.5) scored 25 points, his sixth game this season with at least 25. As he has been all season, Avery Anderson (11.8 & 4.0) was a strong wing man with 20 points. Those are the ONLY two double digit scorers for the Cowboys but Cunningham and Co. enter this contest having won EIGHT of their last nine games. Shaka Smart has not led Texas to the kind of success the Longhorn faithful had hoped for and in fact, Texas was in the tournament semifinals for the first time since 2014. The Longhorns were scheduled to meet Kansas for a time this season but the red-hot Jayhawks (winners of EIGHT of nine) but the Jayhawks were forced to withdraw. Would the Longhorns have beaten the Jayhawks for a THIRD straight time? We'll never know. What we do know is that Texas owns an excellent backcourt trio in Andrew Jones (14.7 & 4.7), Ramey (13.0-3.3-4.0) and Coleman (12.7-3.6-4.2) plus a more than solid frontcourt with the 6-9 Brown (10.0 & 6.6), the 6-10 Sims (8.7 & 6.8) and the 6-11 Kai Jones (8.6 & 4.9). Texas has needed to win just ONE game to reach this year's Big 12 championship game, so just maybe, this is Shaka's time to finally earn a MUCH-needed "big win" as Texas' head coach. Trust me, Texas winning the NIT title in 2019 DOESN'T count! History reveals that at 0-6, the Longhorns have lost more Big 12 championship games than any other team and are taking aim at becoming the first team from the state of Texas to win the event since the league began in 1996-97. The time and place is NOW. Catching Oklahoma St off its upset of Baylor doesn't hurt. Good luck...Larry |
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03-13-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -1 | Top | 57-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on San Diego St at 6:00 ET. The MWC championship game features San Diego St and Utah St for a THIRD consecutive season. Craig Smith came from South Dakota St prior to the 2018-19 season and his team went 28-7 and 26-8 the last two years, beating San Diego St 64-57 in 2019 and 59-56 last year in the title game. San Diego St went 14-3 during the regular season to claim the no. 1 seed, despite losing both games to Utah St (in Logan back on Jan 14 and 16). Utah St captured the No. 2 seed at 15-4 and both schools have advanced to Saturday's championship game with two wins. SD St is 22-4 overall (ranked 19th in the AP poll) and Utah St is 20-7 (unranked but must be confident with its recent history against the Aztecs). The 7-0 Queta leads Utah St in scoring (14.8) and rebounding (10.0) and is joined up front by the 6-7 bean (11.2 & 7.2). Guards Anthony (10.2-4.8-3.0), Worster (9.4-3.7-3.6) and Miller (9.0) complete an 'Iron-Five' that all play 27-plus minutes per game. SDSU has five seniors among its top-six contributors, with the 6-10 Mensah (8.2 & 6.0) being the exception (he's a junior). The 6-6 forward Mitchell (15.4 & 5.5) and guard Schakel (14.5 & 4.4) are the lone double digit scorers but guards Gomez (8.8) and Pullman (7.1-3.0-3.5) plus the 6-9 Tomaic (4.6 & 3.4) all contribute. Smith's done a great job at Utah St but has a ways to go to match SDSU's Brian Dutcher. Dutcher has more than 30 years of coaching experience, including 18 seasons as an assistant to Steve Fisher, first at Michigan and then at San Diego St. Dutcher joined then-interim coach Fisher in 1989 when Michigan won the national championship. Dutcher was named San Diego State's "head coach in waiting" in 2011. Following Fisher's decision to retire, Dutcher was formally named as his replacement on April 11, 2017. The Aztecs won 22 and 21 games in his first two seasons but last season, the team opened 26-0 with impressive road/neutral site wins over BYU, Creighton, Iowa, and Utah State. SD State finished 30-2 and ranked No. 6 when the season shut down. Of course, last year ended with another loss to Utah St plus as noted, the Aggies swept the two-game season series over a three-day stretch at home in January, winning 57-45 and 64-59. However, San Diego St has won 13 in a row since then and I won't pass up Dutcher and the Aztecs in this HUGE "revenge" situation! Good luck...Larry |
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03-13-21 | Memphis +7.5 v. Houston | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Memphis at 5:30 ET. No one should have been surprised by what Kelvin Sampson has done at Houston, after successful stops at Washington St, Oklahoma and Indiana. His first Houston team went 13-19 (2014-15) but FIVE straight 20-win seasons followed. The Cougars won 27 (2017-18) and 33 (2018-19) games, before going 23-8 in last season's pandemic shortened one. Houston is currently 22-3 (No. 7 in the nation) as it takes on Memphis in the semifinals of the AAC tourney. The Tigers are the No. 3 seed and come in 16-7 after getting past UCF 70-62 on Friday. Memphis lost center James Wiseman after just three games last season and PF Achiuwa (15.8 & 10.8) after the season (both are now in the NBA as 1st round picks). 6-7 Va Tech transfer Nolley, leads the Tigers in scoring (13.0) and he's joined in the starting lineup by the 6-9 Williams (10.9 & 6.1), guards Ellis (9.4) and Quinones (9.2 & 5.3) plus 6-10 center Cisse (7.0 & 6.6). Coming off the bench is the 6-7 Jeffries (9.6 & 5.2). Penny was an exciting offensive player in college and in the NBA but he's a defense-first head coach. He EXPECTS his team to be one of the nation's top defensive teams. Memphis enters having allowed 62.3 PPG (19th) on 38.4% shooting (4th), including 26.8% on threes (2nd). Houston guards Grimes (17.7 & 6.1), Sasser (13.5) and Jarreau (10.1-5.5-4.3) are the 'big dogs,' while freshman Mark (8.3) adds depth. The best frontcourt player is the 6-7 Gorham (8.3 & 9.3). Houston also wins with defense, as Sampson's team is allowing only 57.6 PPG, ranking second-best in the nation. The Cougars are holding opponents to 37.0% shooting (1st), including 27.4% on threes (4th) Houston has been the AAC's best team all season but wound up with the No. 2 seed (14-3), as Wichita St (11-2) nabbed the top-seed. Will the Cougars feel as if they have something to prove by winning this tourney? Maybe, but Houston is already an NCAA at-large 'lock.' That's NOT the case for Memphis. With two outstanding defensive teams, a low-scoring game is likely, making the points attractive. What's more, the Tigers enter having gone 11-3 over their last 14 games with those three losses coming by three points at Houston (as a 10-point dog), two points at SMU and by ONE point at Tulsa. Taking a 'TD' or more is REALLY attractive and an outright upset (like with Okla St last night), would be no surprise. Good luck...Larry |
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03-12-21 | Colorado v. USC +2 | Top | 72-70 | Push | 0 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" CBB Conference Game of the Year (Pac 12 tourney) is on USC at 11:30 ET. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans have won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season before the shut down. USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season but finished 15-5 in this season's Pac 12 race, just behind No. 1 seed Oregon (14-4). Tad Boyle is in his 11th season at Colorado and despite losing the 6-7 Tyler Bey (13.8 & 9.0) to the NBA (he played center for the Buffs), the good news was that PG Wright flirted with the NBA draft but returned to Boulder for his senior season. The Buffs finished right behind USC in the Pac 12's regular season at 14-3 (No. 3 seed). Neither team was sharp on Thursday, as USC needed two OTs to get past Utah (8-11 in the Pac 12), while Colorado edged Cal (3-17, a Pac 12 worst!) 61-58 Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. Evan Mobley has been as "good as advertised," averaging 16.4 & 8.6. He joins his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who is adding 9.0 & 7.5. Peterson is a 6-8 swingman from Rice who averages 9.9 & 5.1 plus guards Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St round out the starting-five. Eaddy averages 13.8 PPG and White 7.3. All FIVE starters scored in double digits vs Utah, while Anderson (6.2) added 10 points off the bench. As expected, PG Wright (15.3-4.3-5.7) is the team leader and is surrounded by veterans, such as the 7-0 Dallas Walton (7.0 & 3.0), the 6-8 Evan Battey (9.9 & 5.3) and the 6-7 Walker (7.7 & 4.4) up front. Backcourt 'helpers' for Wright are Schwartz (8.8 & 4.3) and Parquet (5.5). Yes, Colorado got past Cal but it was an 'ugly' win, as the Buffs connected on just 38.5% of their shots, including 3 of 14 on threes. The Buffs advanced because Cal just plain STINKS, shooting 38.3%, including 7 of 28 on threes. The Buffs can NOT expect the Trojans to shoot that poorly in this one. Let me remind all that USC's struggles last night were NOT on the offensive end, as SIX players scored in double figures while the Trojans shot 48.3% as a team. Also, the Trojans can't possibly forget that the Buffs beat them TWICE during the regular season. G-R-E-A-T spot for USC! Good luck...Larry |
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03-12-21 | Pacers v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The defending champion Lakers won SEVEN straight games from through Feb 12 and stood at 21-6 (only the 21-5 Jazz had a better record). However, in LA's 122-105 loss at Denver on Feb 14, A.D. (22.5 & 8.4) was lost to a right calf strain that has forced him to miss the last nine games. Including the loss to Denver, the Lakers have lost SEVEN of 10 and when they return to the court tonight from the All Star break at Staples Center to face the Indiana Pacers, the 24-13 Lakers are now No. 3 in the West (barely ahead of the 25-14 Clippers), 1 1/2-games back of the Suns and 3 1/2-games back of the No. 1-seeded Jazz. The Pacers were the East's No. 4 seed last year but got swept 4-0 by the Heat in the first round of the playoffs. Indiana's 2020-21 season has been full of stops-and-starts, and enters this contest just 16-19 which puts them in a virtual tie with THREE other teams fighting at the bottom of the East's playoff 'cut line!' The Pavers are opening the second season by playing SIX of the first seven games on the road. PG Malcolm Brogdon (21.1-4.6-6.2) and PF Domantas Sabonis (20.8-11.1-6.0) are having outstanding seasons. However, TJ Warren averaged 15.5 PPG through the first four games but has not seen the court since. Oladipo was traded away but the player expected to replace him, Levert (18.5 PPG for the Nets), Justin Holiday (11.7 & 4.0) has been starting in the backcourt with Brogdon, while Center Turner (13.5 & 6.5) and SF McDermott (13.2 PPG on 50.6% shooting) join Sabonis up front. has been lost to a medical issue (kidney) is having perhaps his best season as a pro, averaging 20.8 points, 11.1 rebounds and 6.0 assists a contest. Also making 'noise' are Lamb (11.3 PPG in his 21 games since returning from a serious injury last season) and TJ McConell (6.7-3.7-6.8), who averaged 12.5 PPG and 8.5 APG in the four games prior to the break. The 36-year-old Lebron James (25.8-8.0-7.8 missed just one game the first half of the year for a mild left ankle sprain he's been dealing with since December. Naturally, he played in the All Star game but said that's his only action since (he's well-rested). PG Schroder missed a few games because of COVID protocols but is back and he's been a HUGE addition, averaging 14.9-3.5-4.5. So has PF Harrell, averaging 13.8 & 6.4. Kuzma (11.5 & 6.7) has gotten some starts because of injuries to others, as has Morris (5.4 & 3.8). Caldwell-Pope (8.7) starts alongside Schroder plus Horton-Tucker (7.2) and Caruso (5.8) add depth. Anthony Davis is expected to return sometime this month but LA needs to "Get its act together" prior to that. Why not start here vs Indiana? Good luck...Larry |
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03-12-21 | North Carolina v. Florida State -2 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Florida St at 8:30 ET. North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, while the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll, the Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking. North Carolina ended the regular season 16-9 overall, including 10-6 in the ACC. However, the Tar Heels followed its season-final rout of Duke (91-73) by crushing Notre Dame 101-59 on Wednesday and then used an impressive second-half performance in an 81-73 win over No, 22 Virginia Tech on Thursday. The Tar Heels are now 18-9 and are averaging 91 points per game over a three-game winning streak, a significant jump from their 74.2 PPG prior to that. Florida St head coach Leonard Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program in Tallahassee, one that had produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools heading into the current season, behind only Duke and Virginia since 2016. The Seminoles' 83-73 loss at Notre Dame last week coupled with a Virginia victory over Louisville dropped them to the No. 2 seed for the conference tournament. 15-5 Florida State is ranked 15th in the AP poll and was supposed to play Duke on Thursday but Duke dropped out of the ACC due to a positive test in the team's program. North Carolina's strength is its depth. SEVEN players are making contributions. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (12.2 & 8.0), the 6-10 Brooks (10.4 & 6.8) and the 6-11 Sharpe (9.9 & 7.8), while the backcourt goes four-deep. The group includes Love (10.4 & 3.7 APG), Davis (8.6), Walton (8.1) and Black (5.7 & 5.0). Brooks sat out Wednesday night's game, marking only the second game he has missed across 132 North Carolina games played while he has been on the roster. However, he played 22 minutes last night. Bacot has led the way averaging 18.5 & 13.0 with help up front form Sharpe (12.0 & 7.5) and in the backcourt from Davis (16.5) and Love (11.0). FSU entered this season losing three key players from last year. PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0), who were all chosen in the NBA draft. However, guard MJ Walker is back and leads with 13.1 PPG. He's surrounded by a talented and deep group. The 6-8 Gray (12.4 & 6.9) and 6-9 freshman Barnes (10.4-4.3-4.3) join Walker in double digits plus guard Polite (9.6 & 4.2) and the 7-1 Koprivica (8.7 & 5.4) aren't far behind. Guards Evans and Cahoun each average 6.0 PPG plus the 6-9 Osborne checks in at 5.4 & 4.6. The Tar Heels and Seminoles split their season series with the home team winning each game. However, FSU will surely have the team's loss at UNC on Feb 27 fresh in their minds, as the Seminoles had won NINE of 10 entering that game and along with FSU's season-ending loss to Notre Dame, cost them the ACC's No. 1 seed. UVa got the No. 1 seed but it was just revealed that the Cavs are out of the tourney, much like Duke (COVID strikes again). The winner here will now draw Ga Tech in Saturday's ACC championship game. The Seminoles were 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic last year. Could this year "be the year?" No looking ahead guys! Good luck...Larry |
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03-12-21 | Oklahoma State +9 v. Baylor | Top | 83-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Oklahoma St at 6:30 ET. Second-ranked Baylor (No. 1 seed in the Big 12 at 13-1) was pushed more than anticipated during its Big 12 tournament quarterfinal contest, 'escaping' with a 74-68 win over and over ninth-seeded Kansas State (4-14 in Big 12). The Bears will need a MUCH better effort against No. 12 Oklahoma St (No. 5 seed at 11-7 in the Big 12). The Cowboys got past No. 10 West Va (No. 4 seed in the Big 12) on Thursday 72-69, their SEVENTH win in their last eight games (lone loss was that game at Baylor). Baylor's Scott Drew took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-04 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the best programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and has made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine). Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) from last year's team but the strength of Baylor's team this season is centered around its guards. Butler's (17.2-3.3-4.9) the best of the group but don't look past Teague (16.1 & 4.1), Mitchell (14.2 & 5.5 APG), Flagler (8.9) or Mayer (8.1) The 6-5 Vital (5.8 & 6.5) plays like a power forward and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 6.7 & 5.3 plus the 6-10 Thamba adds 3.5 & 4.0. Mike Boynton took over in Stillwater when Brad Underwood left for Illinois and in his first three seasons, the Cowboys were an underwhelming 51-49. However, led by super-frosh Cade Cunningham, the Cowboys ended the regular season 18-7 and ranked 12th in the nation. The 6-8 Cade Cunningham (19.6-6.4-3.6) has been as good (if not better than advertised). He's joined in the starting lineup by guards Anderson (11.4 & 4.0), Walker (8.0),and Williams (7.8) plus another big guard in the 6-9 Boone (9.7 & 5.6). The 6-5 Likekele (9.8 & 7.0) and the 6-7 Moncrieffe (9.1 & 5.1) are big contributors off the bench. Baylor won the two regular-season games with the Cowboys but in the most recent meeting won by 11 points at home on March 4. OSU features the likely No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA draft in Cunningham and if the Cowboys could stay with 11 points of the Bears in Waco, why can't they make it "much closer" here in Kansas City? The simple answer is, "they can!' Take the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-12-21 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -2.5 | Top | 66-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Seton Hall at 6:00 ET. The eighth-seeded Georgetown Hoyas (7-9 Big East) defeated Marquette 68-49 and then stunned top-seeded Villanova 72-71 in the quarterfinals on Thursday, when Dante Harris' two free throws with 4.7 seconds remaining pushed Georgetown into the semifinal round for the first time since 2015. Georgetown will take on 5th-seeded Seton Hall (10-9 Big East), which snapped a season-long four-game losing streak with a hard-fought 77-69 victory over fourth-seeded St. John's 77-69 in overtime. Patrick Ewing is in his fourth season as Georgetown's head coach (49-46 entering this season) and even with the back-to-back wins, the Hoyas are just 11-12 on the season. The 7-0 Yutseven (15.5 & 9.8) graduated plus McClung (15.7) transferred to Texas Tech, where he's averaged PPG. Ewing features a six-man rotation led by guards Blair (16.0-3.7-3.9), Cary (7.8) and Harris (7.6) plus a frontcourt that features the 6-11 Wahab (12.6 & 7.9), teh 6-9 Pickett (12.4 & 7.6) and the 6-7 Bile (9.8 & 5.0). Harris led the way with 18 points against Villanova, while Wahab added 17, Blair had 14 and Pickett 12 for Georgetown. Seton Hall's 6-11 Sandro Mamukelashvili shared Big East Player of the Year honors in a three-way split with Villanova's Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Collin Gillespie but the Pirates ended the regular season with FOUR straight losses, as well as losses in SEVEN of their last 11. However, SEVEN Seton Hall players have participated in all 26 games this season, led by Mamukelashvili (17.9 & 7.5). He gets help up front from the 6-10 Samuel (5.3 & 3.3) and the 7-2 Obiagu (4.8 & 4.4). A quartet of guards are led by Rhoden (14.6 & 6.7) and Cale (11.9 & 3.7) plus PG Reynolds (7.87& 4.3 APG) and Molson (5.3). Seton Hall received balanced production in its win over St John's with Mamukelashvili scoring 20 points and adding 11 rebounds, while Rhoden chipped in a double-double of 19 points and a career-best 16 rebounds. Cale scored 16 points and grabbed eight rebounds, while Obiagu contributed seven points, seven blocked shots and five rebounds. HUGE "let down" spot here for Georgetown off the upset of Villanova, as the Hoyas hadn't won a single Big East tournament game since 2016 but now they're searching for their THIRD in a row. Think Georgetown will go 23 of 23 from the FT throw again? Seton Hall has appeared in the Big East tournament final four times in program history and with 'Nova out of the way, should reach the championship game for the FIFTH time. Seton Hall head coach Kevin Willard is a "good one" and said after the St Johns win, "We can beat anybody. We feel like this is our second home. We definitely have that vibe." I'm 'vibing' right along with Kev! Good luck...Larry |
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03-12-21 | Ohio State -1 v. Purdue | Top | 87-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Ohio St at 2:00 ET. Chris Holtmann took over at Butler for Brad Stevens and went 70-31 win three seasons, each ending with an NCAA tourney berth. He took the Ohio St job beginning in 2017-18 and strung together three straight 20-win seasons but was denied a third straight NCAA bid when last season was shut down. Purdue's Matt Painter is in his 16th season with the Boilermakers but his team was just 16-14 last season, coming off a four-year run of averaging 27.3 wins per season. Both schools are already assured of an at-large bid to the "Big Dance" as they meet in this No. 4 (Purdue) vs No. 5 (Ohio St) game in the Big Ten tourney's quarterfinal round from Lucas Oil Stadium. The Buckeyes defeated 13th seed Minnesota 79-75 on Thursday to end a four-game losing streak, while Purdue will be playing its first game of the tourney. Ohio St was 18-4 (and ranked 4th in the AP poll) before its four-game slide but somehow remained in the AP's top-10 (at No. 9) in Monday's poll. A four-point win over a 14-15 Minnesota team is hardly a 'buy' sign but then again, the Buckeyes have opened a small favorite. SG Washington (15.3) has been solid all season for Ohio St in the backcourt and after missing some time due to torn ligaments in his right hand, PG Walker (9.2 & 4.3 APG) is back and playing well. The frontcourt has five solid contributors led by the team's best player, the 6-7 Liddell (16.0 & 6.5). He's joined on the frontline by the 6-7 Sueing (10.7 & 5.5), the 6-8 Young (8.3 & 5.6), the 6-6 Aherns (6.3) and 6-8 freshman Key (5.5 & 3.6). The Boilermakers opened a modest 7-5 this season but Purdue has won 11 of its last 14 games. However, it still ranks just 20th in the AP poll (why so far behind Ohio St?).The 6-10 Williams leads Purdue in scoring (15.2) and rebounding (8.8). He's supported by a well-balanced group of FOUR others who chip in between 8.4 and 10.0 PPG. The group includes guards Ivey (10.0), Stefanovic (9.7), Hunter (9.0) and Newman (8.4). The 6-6 Gillis (5.2), the 7-3 Edey (4.9 & 4.5) and the 6-9 Wheeler (3.9 & 4.7) help Williams up front. While I respect Purdue, Ohio St is still the better team and Purdue's own website notes that KenPom.com ranks the Boilermakers No. 328 out of 347 Division I teams in experience (1.04 years). Purdue won both games against the Buckeyes this season, 67-60 at home on Dec 16 and a 67-65 thriller in Columbus on Jan 19 when Ivey hit a jumper to break a 65-65 tie with five seconds left. "Those results were in the regular season, so this game means a little bit more," Ohio State forward Justice Sueing said. "We definitely want to make another statement and survive and advance." That's my bet! Good luck...Larry |
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03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET. The Suns went 8-0 SU & ATS in last year's Orlando 'bubble' and many (most) felt as if Phoenix would seriously contend for a playoff spot in the Western Conference in the 2020-21 season, likely ending a 10-year postseason drought. However, the Suns have exceeded expectations in the first half of the current season by entering the All Star break at 24-11. Only the Jazz own a better record in the entire NBA (Suns are 2 1/2 games back of the Jazz). while Phoenix leads the Lakers by one game and the Clippers by 1 1/2-games. More notably, the suns are also 24-11 ATS, the best pointspread in the entire league. The Blazers have been streaky, opening the season just 10-9 through Feb 1. However, Portland then won EIGHT of nine, before losing FOUR in a row. The Blazers did 'right the ship' just before the break, winning THREE in a row at home to enter the All Star break at 21-14 (West's No. 5 seed). Portland has hung tough despite CJ McCollum (26.7-3.9-5.0) being out since Jan 16 (fractured left foot), while center Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) has played just 12 games (9.8 & 7.7) and PF Zach Collins (ankle) has yet to play a single game. The Suns have been healthy for MOST of the season and Chris Paul (16.0-4.7-8.8) has surely given the Suns all that they had hoped for when they traded for him in the offseason. Devon Booker had averaged 26.6 PPG the two seasons before Paul arrived and still leads the team at 24.9 PPG (very little drop-off). Center Ayton hasn't missed a game while averaging a double-double (14.5 & 11.4) plus SF's Bridges and Johnson (both former 1st round picks) are adding 13.7 & 5.1 and 10.4 & 3.4, respectively. Veteran PF Saric (11.5 & 4.0) and SF Crowder (10.1 & 4.0) give Phoenix SEVEN players in double digits. Portland's Lillard (29.8-4.3-8.0) is a true superstar plus Trent (15.2) has helped ease the 'pain' of losing McCollum in the backcourt. Kanter (11.9 & 11.9) has been excellent getting more time with Nurkic out plus the ageless Anthony adds 13.9 PPG off the bench. SF Jones (8.1 & 4.8) and PF Covington (7.9 & 6.6) were acquired in the offseason (both are excellent defenders) and while not spectacular, have been very solid. I'm 'sold' on Phoenix but caution that no one should overlook Portland. The Suns and Blazers are meeting for the second time this season, with the Suns routing the Blazers in Phoenix 132-100 back on Feb 22. It marked the Suns' largest margin of victory this season but note that Portland was in the midst of a four-game losing streak the last time the teams played. Turnabout (here in Portland) is 'fair play.' Take the home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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03-11-21 | Texas Tech v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 66-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Big 12 Conference Tourney Game of the Year is on Texas at 9:30 ET. |
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03-11-21 | Seton Hall -1 v. St. John's | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on Seton Hall at 3:00 ET. The Big East tourney opened Wednesday from Madison Square Garden with Georgetown beating Marquette 68-49 and Butler edging Xavier 70-69. The quarterfinals are set for Thursday, including fourth-seeded St. John's (16-10 / 10-9) facing off against fifth-seeded Seton Hall (12-12 / 10-9). St. John's and Seton Hall boast the Big East top's two scorers in Julian Champagnie (19.9 & 7.3) and Sandro Mamukelashvili (17.8 & 7.3), with the Red Storm earning the tiebreaker by beating the Pirates 81-71 at home this past Saturday. Both teams likely need to make some noise in the Big East tournament to see their NCAA Tournament aspirations become a reality. Mamukelashvili shared Big East Player of the Year honors in a three-way split with Villanova's Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Collin Gillespie but the Pirates ended the regular season with FOUR straight losses, as well as losses in SEVEN of their last 11. SEVEN Seton Hall players have participated in all 25 games this season, led by the 6-11 Mamukelashvili (see above). He gets help up front from the 6-10 Samuel (5.6 & 3.4) and the 7-2 Obiagu (4.7 & 4.4). A quartet of guards are led by Rhoden (14.4 & 6.4) and Cale (11.8 & 3.5) plus PG Reynolds (7.8 & 4.3 APG) and Molson (5.3). St. John's was picked ninth in the Big East preseason poll but ended the regular season with 10 wins in its last 14 contests, including a six-game winning streak from Jan 18 to Feb 6. The Red Storm slumped a little following the six-game win streak by losing three of four but overcame slow starts with consecutive home wins over Providence and Seton Hall, despite playing their last two games without standout freshman PG Posh Alexander (thumb), who led the Big East with 2.6 steals per game. However, Alexander (11.1-3.5-4.4) said he is feeling better and he will be able to play Thursday. St John's owns a deep backcourt with Williams (9.4), Dunn (9.1 & 4.0 APG), Cole (9.0) and Addae-Wusu (6.3). Joining Champagnie up front is the 6-10 Moore (9.2 & 4.8) and the 6-6 Earlington (6.6 & 4.0). "It's a one-game season now," St. John's head coach Mike Anderson said Wednesday. "You look at Seton Hall's record over the course of the last two, three years in tournament play, it's been pretty good. So we know we're going to get the best version of Seton Hall. So we got to be at our best version as well." He's right about that, as Seton Hall's Kevin Willard noted by saying, "I'm always excited about the Big East tournament. We've been very successful there the last four years, five years, six years, seven years. I have a lot of confidence in this team; we're just not playing 40 minutes right now and that's really hurting us." Case in point was this past Saturday, when Seton Hall scored the game's first 18 points before getting outscored 53-33 after halftime. R-E-V-E-N-G-E! Good luck...Larry |
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03-11-21 | Michigan State +1 v. Maryland | Top | 57-68 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Michigan St at 11:30 a.m. ET. The Big Ten has more ranked teams than any other conference and that adds to the suspense in this week's tournament which began last night with Minnesota beating Northwestern 51-46 and Penn St beating Nebraska 72-66. The league's top-four teams have a bye into Friday's quarterfinals with four games being contested on Thursday. The first game out of the gate is Michigan State (15-11 overall, 9-11 Big 12) vs Maryland (15-12, 9-11 Big 12). The Spartans are seeded No. 9 and Maryland No. 8, as the Terps won the lone meeting between the two schools 73-55 at Maryland on Feb 28. Michigan St lost 75-65 at Purdue back on Feb 16 and sat 10-9, including 4-9 in the Big Ten. However, the Spartans rebound to go 5-2 down the stretch, including wins over then-No. 5 Illinois, then-No. 4 Ohio St and then-No. 2 Michigan. Izzo has led the Spartans to 22 consecutive NCAA appearances (no tourney last season) and his team's late surge likely has earned Michigan St an at-large berth. Mark Turgeon coached Wichita St for seven years, before leading Texas A&M to four straight NCAA tournaments in four years going 97-40. He joined Maryland when it was still in the ACC but its move to the Big Ten has been good for the basketball program, as over the last six seasons the Terps have won 20-plus games in five seasons (exception was a 19-win season), making four NCAA tourneys (would have been five, as Maryland was 24-7 when the season was shut down last year). Maryland's at-large situation is a little more sky than Michigan St, as the Terps 66-61 home loss to Penn St this past Sunday "didn't help. The 6-6 Henry leads Michigan St in scoring (15.5), rebounding (5.5) and assists (3.5) and is joined in the frontcourt by the 6-9 Hauser (9.9 & 5.9) and the 6-7 Brown (7.4 & 2.9). The starting guards are Langford (9.8 & 3.4) and Watts (7.8). The Terps have a deep backcourt. Ayala (14.5 & 4.0) and Wiggins (14.0 & 5.8) lead the way, supported by Morsell (8.8 & 3.8) and Hart (7.5 & 3.6). Up front, it's the 6-7 Scott (11.2 & 6.4) and 6-8 BC transfer Hamilton (6.6 & 2.5). The Terps won FIVE in a row from Feb 14-28 but then lost 60-55 at Northwestern (6-13 in the Big Ten) and then 66-61 at home to Penn St (7-12 in Big Ten). Maybe MSU has already 'punched its ticket' but Izzo's been around too long to let his team come into this game 'flat,' especially with that Feb 28 73-55 loss at Maryland fresh on MSU's mind. The Spartans shot just 33.3% in that game (8 of 28 on threes), while the Terps shot 48.8% (8 of 16 on threes). Michigan St gets the wins and moves to a Friday game with Michigan (uh-oh!). Good luck...Larry |
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03-10-21 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina -6.5 | Top | 59-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on North Carolina at 9:00 ET. Notre Dame bounced back from a 14-win season two seasons ago to go 20-12 last year but lost PF Mooney, who averaged 16.2 & 12.7. Mike Brey is now in his 21st season at South Bend but after a 2-2 start to the current season, the Irish have been sub-.500 ever since (finished the regular season 10-14 / 7-11 in the ACC). North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, while the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll, the Tar Heels have NOT lived up to their preseason ranking. North Carolina is 16-9 overall, including 10-6 in the ACC Notre Dame (No. 11 seed) rallied from a 16-point second-half deficit to defeat 14th-seeded Wake Forest 80-77 on Trey Wertz's three-pointer at the buzzer on Tuesday. PG Hubb (14.6 & 6.0 APG) and SG Goodwin (12.1 & 5.2) are a solid backcourt duo plus the 6-10 Laszewski adds 13.3 PPG and leads in rebounding (7.4). Stanford transfer Ryan (10.1 & 4.5) and Wertz (8.6 play on the perimeter with Hubb and Goodwin, while 6-11 UConn transfer Durham (10.7 & 5.5) has been a solid complement up front to Laszewski. Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 for the Tar Heels but as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG for North Carolina. However, North Carolina's strength is its depth. SEVEN players are making contributions. Up front it's the 6-10 Bacot (11.7 & 7.6), the 6-10 Brooks (10.6 & 6.9) and the 6-11 Sharpe (9.7 & 7.8), while the backcourt goes four-deep. The group includes Love (10.4 & 3.8 APG), Walton (8.3), Davis (8.0) and Black (5.6 & 5.2). North Carolina was just 5-4 entering Jan and opened 2021 with a 66-65 home win over Notre Dame. That led to an 11-5 finish that was capped by a crushing 91-73 romp over hated-Duke in Saturday night's regular-season finale (a week earlier, the Tar Heels had beaten Florida State, which was in first place at the time). I would NOT be surprised if the Tar Heels made a deep run in this year's ACC tourney, as North Carolina is 40-19 in ACC tournament games held in the Greensboro Coliseum. Notre Dame needed "the luck of the Irish" to escape vs Wake Forest but will have no such luck here. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-10-21 | Duke -2 v. Louisville | Top | 70-56 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" ACC Conference Tourney Game of the Year is on Duke at 6:30 ET. Duke last missed the NCAA Tournament back in the 1994-95 season and many believe the Blue Devils (ACC's 10th-seed) would need to win the ACC tournament this week in Greensboro to make this year's NCAA field (note: No team has ever won five ACC tournament games in five days, the feat Duke hopes to accomplish). The Blue Devils routed 15th-seeded 86-51 Boston College on Tuesday but now takes on seventh-seed Louisville (13-6) on Wednesday. Duke opened No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but the team's Jan 12 loss at Va Tech saw 5-3 Duke (3-1 in the ACC) fall out of the AP poll and the Blue Devils haven't been back. Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) is with the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) is with the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guards Stewart (13.2) and Roach (8.7) have played well but 6-9 freshman Johnson (11.9 & 6.5) left the team to prepare for the NBA. 6-9 sophomore Hurt leads the team in scoring (18.2) and rebounding (6.3), while sophomore SF Moore (9.7 & 4.7) and senior guard Goldwire (6.0-3.0-4.0) are solid contributors. The 7-0 Williams (6.4 & 3.8) has been starting lately but averages less than 15 minutes. Chris Mack took over at Xavier for the 2009-10 season when Sean Miller took the Arizona job. He led the Musketeers to eight NCAA tourneys in nine seasons before moving to Louisville. The Cards went 20-14 in his first season (NCAA bid) and were 24-7 in his second year, when the season was shut down in March (AP ranked them 14th in its final poll). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's Louisville team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.0-4.9-4.6. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He's joined by returning guard Johnson (12.6-5.5-3.3) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 9.9 & 8.1 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 10.3 & 7.9. True freshman guard Davis (7.8) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.2). Carlik Jones was an All-ACC first team selection and led the way for Louisville in winning BOTH games against Duke this season. He scored 24 points in a 70-65 win at Louisville on Jan 23 and then had 25 points in an 80-73 overtime victory Feb 27 in Durham. Is the third time a charm for Coach K and the Blue Devils in this one? Duke eased past BC, as no starter played more than 27 minutes, with Duke's bench adding 32 points. Louisville has already 'punched its ticket' to the Big Dance and while I'm NOT predicting that Duke is going to go on a five-game winning spree here in Greensboro, I DO like them in this "double-revenge" spot off two close regular season losses against the Cards. Good luck...Larry |
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03-10-21 | Iona v. Siena +2 | Top | 55-52 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Siena at 5:00 ET. COVID-19 limited the Iona Gaels to just 13 games during the regular season, Iona was 8-5 overall, including 6-3 in MAAC play (No. 9 seed). The Gaels met 8th-seeded Quinnipiac (9-12 / 7-10 MAAC) in Tuesday's opening round and routed the Bobcats 72-48. Iona advances on Wednesday to play the top-seeded Siena Saints, who didn't play their first game until Jan 3, going 12-4 in a schedule which included only league games. The schools did not meet during the regular season. I had Iona in Tuesday's contest and noted that followers of college hoops are well aware of the success that Rick Pitino has had as a college basketball head coach but along with that, his "trials and tribulations" are equally well-known. Pitino resurfaced this season at Iona, a team led by an excellent duo of senior guards, Ross (20.1) and Gist (12.2 & 3.8 APG). 6-9 freshman Joseph (11.9 & 7.2), 6-5 JC transfer JeanLouis (8.0 & 5.9), freshman guard Myers (7.1) and 6-9 senior van Eyck (6.8 & 6.7) complete Iona's main contributors. Shaheen Holloway played four years at Seton Hall (named to the school's Athletic Hall of Fame) and was an assistant under Kevin Willard at Iona and Seton Hall, before being hired as Siena's head coach prior to the 2018-19 season. His first team went 10-22 but he turned the program last year (18-9 / 14-6 MAAC) before the shutdown. As noted above, this year's team won the regular season title at 12-4. The team owns four double-digit scorers, led by 6-7 guard Camper, who leads in scoring (14.6) and rebounding (10.0). Fellow guards Pickett (12.8 & 6.2) and King (12.5) are joined by the 6-9 Stormo (10.6 & 5.7) and 6-7 freshman Golston (5.0 & 3.0) in the starting lineup. The 6-9 Young (6.3 & 3.4) contributes off the bench but guard Hopkins (7.8) has been sidelined with a lower leg injury and has missed the last five games. Will Pitino bring some of his coaching 'magic' to the MAAC? The jury is still out. Iona's romp over Quinnipiac was fueled by the Bobcats shooting an abysmal 28.1 from the floor, including 7 of 26 on threes. Iona's top-two players (Ross and Gist) combined to shoot just 8 of 22 (36.4%) from the floor. That won't get the job done against a well-balanced Siena team allowing just 63.5 PPG (34th) plus shoots 45.9% from the floor on the offensive end. Good luck...Larry |
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03-09-21 | Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -1 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on North Dakota St at 9:00 ET. The Summit League Tournament is being held at The Pentagon in Sioux Falls, a neutral site. The Summit's top-two seeds, No.1 South Dakota St and No. 2 South Dakota were both eliminated in the semifinals. as No. 4 Oral Roberts beat South Dakota St 90-88 (on a tip-in at the buzzer) and No.3 North Dakota St edged South Dakota 79-75. The two schools met twice during the regular season Feb 5 and 6 at North Dakota St), splitting the pair. Oral Roberts has been led all season by guard Abmas (24.3) and the 6-8 Obanor (18.0 & 9.5). Guard Glasper averaged 11.0 PPG but hasn't played since Feb 6. What's happened so far in two tourney games has been that Thompson (7.7 PPG) has averaged 19.0 & 4.0, Weaver (5.7 PPG) has averaged 15.0 & 4.5 and Jurgens (4.9 PPG) has averaged 12.0 & 5.0. Where have those efforts been all season? Abmas has averaged 20.0 & 6.5 APG in the tourney but Obanor has been 'off' (11.5 & 4.0), although he had the game-winning tip-in at the buzzer vs South Dakota St. Kyan Brown is in his seventh season at North Dakota St and last year's team went 25-8. The scoring duo of Shahid (18.4) and Ward (16.9) moved on but a trio of seniors have stepped up this season. The 6-10 Kreuser (15.0 & 7.0) plus guards Griesel (11.7 & 6.3) and Eady (11.4 & 5.) have led all season. Also making contributions have been guard Cook (9.4), the 6-7 Harden-Hayes (9.2 & 5.4), and 6-10 freshman Nelson (6.4 & 3.6). North Dakota St saw last season end due to the pandemic but after opening this season 0-5, the Bison have a chance to earn that automatic NCAA bid by winning the Summit League tourney. My bet says they do just that. Good luck...Larry |
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03-09-21 | Mt. St. Mary's v. Bryant -5.5 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Bryant at 7:00 ET. Due to complications caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, only the top four teams in the Northeast Conference were eligible to compete in the conference tournament in 2021. Wagner got the No. 1 seed (13-5) and Bryant the No. 2 seed (10-4), while 9-7 Sacred Heart earned the No. 3 seed over 9-7 Mount St Mary's due to a tiebreaker. The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers upset Wagner 66-60 last Saturday to advance to Tuesday's championship game at Chace Athletic Center to meet the Bryant Bulldogs, who beat Sacred Heart 85-55 (also last Saturday). Note: The Chace Athletic Center is Bryant's home court. Mount St Mary's returned its top-two scorers from last season in guards Chung Qui and Gibbs. However, Gibbs placed his name in the NCAA's transfer portal Monday after just four games (was averaging 16.5 & 4.8). Chung Qui (14.9-4.0-5.5) is joined in the backcourt by Morse (10.8), while the 6-9 Opuku (9.9 & 7.0) and the 6-7 Jefferson (8.3 & 7.7) are the team's top frontcourt players. Bryant's five starters (four guards) all average in double digits. Kiss (17.1-6.0-3.4), Green (16.7-4.0-3.9), Childs (14.1) and Pride (12.6 & 7.1) are the guards, while the 6-8 Elisias (10.6 & 8.0) rounds out the group. However, Bryant had to cancel its final two regular season games against Mount St. Mary's because of positive COVID-19 results within Bryant's Tier 1 personnel and subsequent contact tracing. Bryant's status for the postseason had initially been uncertain but established its intent to compete in the tournament after meeting Rhode Island Department of Health guidelines. Bryant competed in its semifinal game with just SEVEN players, one of whom was a walk-on. The Bulldogs sure rose to the challenge, despite Green and Childs not being able to play. Kiss had a line of 19-5-6, Pride 16 & 11 and Elisias 18 & 9. Reserves Bans (13 & 4) and Hurtado (12-5-5) really came through. Not sure what the status is on Green and Childs but the Bulldogs are full of confidence and playing at home, where they are 10-0 on the season. Bryant averages 84.6 PPG (5th in the nation) and I don't believe Mt St Mary's (63.2 PPG ranks 332nd) can "keep up," especially coming off an upset on top-seeded Wagner on the road. Good luck...Larry |
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03-09-21 | Iona -6 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 72-48 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Iona at 5:00 ET. Followers of college hoops are well aware of the success that Rick Pitino has had as a college basketball head coach but along with that, his "trials and tribulations" are equally well-known. Pitino resurfaced this season at Iona as COVID-19 has limited his Gaels to just 13 games. Iona is 8-5 overall, including 6-3 in MAAC play. Iona is the league's No. 9 seed and will meet the 8th-seeded Quinnipiac Bobcats who got in 21 games, going 2-12 overall (including 7-10 in league play). Seeding has been confusing for the conference tourneys this season. The Gaels are led by an excellent duo of senior guards, Ross (20.5) and Gist (1.2 & 4.0 APG). 6-9 freshman Joseph (12.1 & 7.1), 6-5 JC transfer JeanLouis (8.1 & 5.5), 6-9 senior van Eyck (7.3 & 6.5) and freshman guard Myers (7.2) complete Iona's main contributors. Quinnipiac's head coach Baker Dunleavy (yes, Mike Dunleavy's son) was an assistant under Jay Wright at Villanova and is in his fourth season at Quinnipiac. Dunleavy lost his two best players from last season in PG Kelly (16.7 & 4.5 APG) and the 6-8 Marfo (10.2 & 13.3). This season's team relies on balance, with SEVEN players getting 21-plus minutes of "PT." The 6-6 Rigoni leads in scoring (12.0) and rebounding (6.3) and is joined up front by the 7-1 Pinkney (8.2 & 5.0). FIVE guards add between 6.9 and 10.5 PPG, led by Kortright (10.5 & 3.9), Chenery (10.0), and Lewis (8.6 & 4.3). Quinnipiac won the only meeting against Iona this season (74-70 at home on Feb 17) but Pitino deserves a HUGE edge over Dunleavy on the sideline. The Gaels won three straight in late Dec (right before Christmas but then didn't play again until Feb 12. Iona has won SIX of its last eight games and has averaged 87.3 PPG in its last four wins. I'm not sure Quinnipiac can keep up, as the Bobcats are averaging a modest 68.4 PPG on the season. History tells us that the Gaels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games, while Quinnipiac checks in 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Will Pitino bring some of his coaching 'magic' to the MAAC? My bet says he will, at least for this game. Good luck...Larry |
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03-08-21 | Appalachian State v. Georgia State -5.5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* "Best of the Best" Conference Game of the Year (SBC-Tourney) is on Georgia St at 7:00 ET. All SBC tournament games have been played at Pensacola Bay Center & the Hartsell Center at Pensacola State College The championship game is set for Monday, as the Appalachian State Mountaineers and the Georgia State Panthers meet from Pensacola Bay Center. Appalachian State entered the tourney having lost SIX of seven and was seeded No. 4 in the East. The Mountaineers have beaten Little Rock (No. 5 seed in the West), Texas St (No. 1 seed in the West) and Coastal Carolina (No. 2 seed in the East) to reach this title game. Meanwhile, Georgia St (No. 1 seed in the East) had a first round bye before beating Arkansas St (No. 4 seed in the West) and ULL (No.2 seed in the West).
Appalachian State opened the year 12-5 but then lost five straight games around a handful of postponements and cancellations (lost six of its final seven). Four guards averaged are averaging in double digits; Forrest (13.0 & 3.4) Delph (19. & 4.4), Almonacy (12.1 & 4.1) and Williams (11.0 & 5.8). The team's lone frontcourt player of note is the 6-8 Lewis (8.7 & 5.3). In this tourney, Forrest is averaging 21.7 PPG, Almonacy (1.83 & 6.3 and Delph 16.3). However, Gregory has fallen to just 6.7 PPG while Lewis has been a non-factor. 'All five of Georgia State's starters are averaging in double digits. A trio of guards lead the way in Allen (15.2 & 4.2), Roberts (13.3-3.7-4.8) and Williams (12.7-3.4-4.2) plus the 6-8 Nsoseme (11.9 & 10.1) and the 6-10 Thomas (10.5 & 6.1) make for a very good frontcourt duo. In the Panthers' two tourney games, Allen is averaging 18.0-4-0-4.0, Roberts 12.5-5.0-4.0, Nsoseme 13.5 & 12.0 and Thomas 10.0 & 5.5. Georgia St opened 8-2 but then lost back-to-back Games (Jan 22 & 23) at App St, before its next four games were lost to COVID protocols. The Panthers returned to the court on Feb 9 and lost to South Alabama but have since won EIGHT in a row, including beating the Mountaineers 85-71 in Atlanta. The SBC will NOT earn an at-large bid to the "Big Dance" so it's win or else for both of these teams. The Panthers own a backcourt that matches up well with the Mountaineers' plus the frontcourt duo of Nsoseme and Thomas should dominate the paint. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-08-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Cleveland State -3.5 | Top | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Cleveland St at 6:30 ET. The Horizon Tourney opened at campus sites for the first two rounds but moves to Indianapolis for the semis and championship game. THREE of the league's top-four seeds remain, the exception being Wright St, which was the No. 2 seed. The Raiders had tied Cleveland St at 16-4 for the Horizon's best record but lost last Tuesday 94-92 in OT at home to the Milwaukee Panthers, who are the No. 8 seed. No. 1 seed Cleveland St is glad to be 'alive,' after needing three OTs to get past Purdue-Ft Wayne 108-104 last Tuesday. The two schools met twice in the regular season, splitting a pair of games on Cleveland State's home court. Milwaukee had lost five straight before snapping that slide in its final regular season game but has now beaten IUPUI and Wright St to become the 'Cinderella' team of the Horizon Tourney. The Panthers are a guard-oriented team led by Gholston (17.1 & 5.3) and Lucas (15.2-4.7-5.8). That duo led the Panthers past Wright St with Gholston scoring 31 points (along with nine rebounds) and Lucas 25. . Cleveland St a solid group of four guards in the starting lineup, led by 6-5 senior Patton, who leads in scoring (14/6) and rebound (7.8). Joining him in the starting lineup are fellow guards Hodge (10.3 & 3.4), Gomillion (10.0 & 5.0) and Beaudion (9.5 & 3.3 APG) plus the 6-9 Johnson (5.6 & 5.50. Patton had 30 points and 13 rebounds, while Gomillion added 22-13-6 in the team's triple OT win. However, where would the Vikings be without the 6-8 Eichelberger (6.4 & 3.7), who played 37 minutes off the bench to add 20-6-5? Cleveland St is the MUCH better team and all Horizon schools know it's win the conference tourney or else, as far as an NCAA berth is concerned. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games and I see no reason to think that record will NOT fall to 0-7 after this one. Cleveland St last made the "Big Dance" back in 2009 and the school's only other appearance was the 1986 team which famously upset Bobby Knight's Indiana team and reached the Sweet 16. How 'sweet' would it be for the Vikings to make the NCAAs this season, after FIVE straight losing seasons of nine, nine, 12, 10 and 11 wins? Good luck...Larry |
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03-07-21 | UMKC v. North Dakota State -5.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Conf Tourney Game of the Year (Summit) is on North Dakota St at 9:45 ET. Summit League Tournament is being held at The Pentagon in Sioux Falls, a neutral site. The Summit's top-two seeds, No.1 South Dakota St and South Dakota, advanced on Saturday with wins. The other four teams play Sunday, including No. 6 UMKC and No. 3 North Dakota State. The Roos and Bison met in back-to-back games in KC back on Jan 29 and 30, with each team winning once. UMKC comes in just 11-13 on the season, while North Dakota St, after a 2-6 non-conference start, went 11-5 in Summit League to earn the No. 3 seed and post a 13-11 over record. Billy Donolon won 20-plus games in THREE of his six seasons at Wright St and is in his second year at UMLC. The Roos were 16-14 last season and this season have lost a number of contributing players during the year like guard Pennington (14.0), plus big men Lamar (11.4 & 6.0) and Roessink (7.6 & 4.0). Guard Nesbitt missed about a month (Jan-Feb) but is back (10.8 & 6.2) to join fellow guard McKissic (17.5-3.6-3.3) and the 6-8 Allick (14.6 & 5.8) in double digits. Kyan Brown is in his seventh season at North Dakota St and last year's team went 25-8. However, the scoring duo of Shahid (18.4) and Ward (16.9) have moved on. A trio of seniors have stepped up this season, the 6-10 Kreuser (14.8 & 6.9) plus guards Griesel (11.6 & 6.5) and Eady (11.1 & 5.5). Also making contributions have been the 6-7 Harden-Hayes (9.7 & 5.4), guard Cook (9.4 & 3.1) and 6-10 freshman Nelson (6.4 & 3.5). It seems to be a given that South Dakota St and South Dakota will meet in the championship game but if there is a 'dark horse' in the Summit, it will be the Bison. North Dakota St ended the regular season with back-to-back games at home vs South Dakota St and at South Dakota, gaining a split in each series. Expect the Bison to win handily here and advance to a semifinal meeting with South Dakota. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-07-21 | Oregon -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on Oregon at 8:00 ET. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He's now in his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). The Ducks (18-5 /13-4 Pac-12) rallied from a halftime deficit against UCLA on Wednesday, scoring 45 second-half points of an 82-74 victory. The win moved Oregon into sole possession of first place and marked the Ducks' fourth straight win and NINTH in 10 games. Oregon can claim consecutive outright Pac-12 Conference championships for the first time with a road win Sunday against rival Oregon State in Corvallis. Oregon State's Wayne Tinkle lost his son Tres (18.5 & 6.8) and center Kelley (11.1 PPG / 5.3 RPFG / 3.5 BPG) from last year's team but heads into this contest on a three-game winning streak with a 14-11 overall mark (10-9 in the Pac 12). All three of those wins, over Cal, Stanford and Utah, have come impressively on the road. However, Oregon State's recent surge followed a stretch where it lost FOUR out of five. Altman lost key players from last season, most notably Pritchard (20.5-4.3-5.5) but also SG Mathis (8.5) and the 6-7 Juiston (7.9 & 6.3). The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers is averaging 16.9 & 5.4. The 6-6 Figueroa transferred from St John's and adds 11.9 & 6.4 and the 6-6 Eric Williams (10.5 & 6.4) transferred from Duquesne. That trio gives Oregon a strong frontcourt, even with 6-11 center N'Faly Dante (8.2 & 5.8) suffering a torn ACL in mid-December (out for the season). 6-8 guard Duarte leads the team in scoring (17.7) and is now joined in the backcourt by PG Will Richardson, who is back from a left thumb injury suffered in the preseason. He's averaging 10.0 PPG in 11 games. Oregon St is led by guard Thompson (15.5-3.4-40) and fellow guard Lucas (12.8) is the only other double digit scorer. That duo is joined in the starting lineup by fellow guard Reichle (7.2-3.3-3.1) plus the 6-7 Alatishe (9.2 & 8.4) and the 7-1 Silva (5.3 & 2.5). Alatishe transferred from Nicholls State and has been a big addition. Oregon State is hoping to build on the positive momentum from THREE straight road wins and can earn a season sweep of Oregon with a win here, something the Beavers last accomplished in the 2018-19 season. As noted above, an Oregon win means the No. 1 seed in the Pac 12 tourney but if that's NOT enough motivation, the Ducks SURELY remember losing 75-64 in Eugene back on Jan 23. PG Will Richardson did not play in Oregon's first meeting with Oregon State, as he didn't make his season debut until Feb 4 He scored nine of his 15 points in the second half and sank 6 of 8 shots from the floor in the comeback win over UCLA and, as Altman credited for for "taking over" against the Bruins. It's not lost on anyone that the Ducks are 9-2 since Richardson's return. Can you say "Pac 12 champs?" Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-07-21 | Penn State v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 66-61 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Maryland at 7:00 ET. Penn St was 21-10 last season but the Nittany Lions went through some turmoil right as practices started when head coach Pat Chambers resigned in late October following an investigation into inappropriate conduct. Penn State is playing this season with interim head coach Jim Ferry and the Nittany Lions play their final regular season game of the current season Sunday at Maryland. Penn St is overall, including in Big Ten play. Mark Turgeon coached Wichita St for seven years, before leading Texas A&M to four straight NCAA tournaments in four years going 97-40. He joined Maryland when it was still in the ACC but its move to the Big Ten has been good for the basketball program, as over the last six seasons the Terps have won 20-plus games in five seasons (exception was a 19-win season), making four NCAA tourneys (would have been five, as Maryland was 24-7 when the season was shut down last year). Maryland, despite Wednesday's 60-55 loss at Northwestern, has made a nice late-season run to put itself in position to grab an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. The Terps are 15-11 overall, including 9-10 in the Big Ten. Penn State enters off one of its best games of the season, an 84-65 beatdown of struggling Minnesota at home Wednesday night. The Nittany Lions opened up a 46-28 halftime lead but NO ONE can make much of anything these days of a win over Minnesota (Gophers are 3-12 their last 15 overall and 0-10 on the road this season). Penn St surely misses All-Big Ten forward Lamar Stevens (17.6 & 6.9). The Nittany Lions have two players averaging in double figures, guards Jones (15.5) and Brockington (13.0 & 4.6). However, the team's depth is decent. The 6-7 Seth Lundy (9.4 & 3.8) and the 6-9 Harrar (9.1 & 8.6) are solid frontcourt players, plus guards Dread (7.9), Sessoms (7.9) and Wheeler (6.4-4.4-3.6) add backcourt depth. PG Cowan (16.3 & 4.7 APG) and big man Jalen Smith (15.5 & 10.5) are gone from last season's Maryland team but the Terps have a deep backcourt. Ayala (14.5 & 3.1) and Wiggins (13.9 & 5.7) lead the way, supported by Morsell (8.8 & 3.8) and Hart (7.7 & 3.6). Up front, it's the 6-7 Scott (11.3 & 6.7) and 6-8 BC transfer Hamilton (6.6 & 2.5). Maryland had won FIVE straight before stumbling at Northwestern, as 15 turnovers and 42 percent shooting 'killed' them. The Terps are playing with revenge from a 55-50 loss at Penn St on Feb 5 but more importantly, a win gets them to 10-10 in Big Ten play, which really improves Maryland's at-large hopes. However, a loss and the Big Ten tourney becomes a potential eliminator for the Terps' NCAA hopes. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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03-06-21 | Appalachian State v. Texas State -3 | Top | 76-73 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Texas St at 9:00 ET. All SBC tournament games will played at Pensacola Bay Center & the Hartsell Center at Pensacola State College between March 5–8.The Appalachian State Mountaineers (No. 4 seed East) will take on the Texas State Bobcats (No. 1 seed in West) in quarterfinal matchup from the Pensacola Bay Center on Saturday night. The schools didn't meet in the regular season. Texas St earned a bye into the quarterfinals, while App St is fresh off its opening round 67-60 win over Little Rock on Friday. The Mountaineers entered last night's game having lost SIX of 7 but led by Justin Forrest 24 points (matching a career-high). Forrest (11.7) joins three other guards in double digit scoring this season, along with leading scorer Delph (12.4),Gregory (11.6 & 5.3) and Almonacy (11.4 & 3.8), The team's lone frontcourt player of note is the 6-8 Lewis (8.9 & 5.6) but it hardly bodes well that he played 29 minutes last night, scoring two points and grabbing three rebounds. Texas St last played Feb 27 and has to feel as if it has a great chance to win the tourney and earn an NCAA automatic bid. Guards Harrell (13.7-3.1-3.2), Asberry (13.2 & 4.0) and Adams (6.4 & 4.1) round out the main players in the backcourt, while the 6-8 Small (10.8 & 5.7), the 6-7 Sule (7.8 & 3.3) and Ceasar (5.0 & 2.6) are the frontcourt contributors. As noted above, Appalachian State had lost SIX of seven before last night's win but tonight faces a Texas St team that's won 12 of its last 14 games, including SEVEN in a row since losing Jan 29 and 30 to ULL by scores of 62-60 and 74-73. Let me go over that again. Texas State has 12 wins and two losses (by a combined THREE points!) in its last 14 games! Bye-Bye App St! Good luck...Larry |
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03-06-21 | Seton Hall v. St. John's +1.5 | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* play is on St John's at 7:00 ET. Seton Hall (13-11 / 10-8 Big East) and St John's (15-10 / 9-9 Big East) conclude their respective regular seasons Saturday at Carnesecca Arena in Queens, NY, as both schools try to lock down a top-five seed and the accompanying bye into the quarterfinal round of next week's Big East tournament. Seton Hall dropped a 69-58 decision to UConn on Wednesday and finds itself in its second three-game losing skid of the season. Meanwhile, St John's improved to 10-3 at home this season with an 81-67 victory over Providence on Wednesday, as the Red Storm outscored the Friars 51-26 in the second half. SEVEN Seton Hall players have participated in all 24 games this season, led by the 6-11 Mamukelashvili. He has five double-doubles this season and leads the Pirates in scoring (17.9) and rebounding (7.2). He gets help up front from the 6-10 Samuel (5.6 & 3.5) and the 7-2 Obiagu (4.5 & 4.3). A quartet of guards are led by Rhoden (14.6 & 6.3) and Cale (11.9 & 3.6) plus PG Reynolds (7.6 & 4.4 APFG) and Molson (5.5). Swingman Julian Champagnie leads St. John's in scoring (19.8) and rebounding (7.3). He collected 16 and 10 Wednesday for his seventh double-double of the season. The not-so good news is that PG Alexander (11.1-3.5-4.4) is sidelined with a right thumb injury. Alexander averages club-best totals in assists (4.4) and steals (2.6). Rasheem Dunn (9.2 & 4.0 APG) stepped up with a season-high 21 points against Providence. The good news is that St John's owns a deep backcourt with Williams (9.3), Cole (9.0) and Addae-Wusu (6.4). Up front, it's the 6-10 Moore (9.6 & 5.0) and the 6-6 Earlington (6.4 & 3.9). Back on Dec 11 in the Big East opener, the Pirates won 77-68 at Seton Hall, when Mamukelashvili scored a career-high 32 points. Champagnie scored 24 points for St. John's in one but in this "revenge" spot, look for Champagnie and the Red Storm to earn the 'CA$H!' Good luck...Larry |
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03-06-21 | Stephen F Austin v. Sam Houston State | Top | 64-59 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Sam Houston St at 6:00 ET. Stephen F. Austin lost 63-61 at home to Abilene Christian on Wednesday, just the team's SECOND home loss since the start of last season (Lumberjacks are 24-2). The Lumberjacks travel to Huntsville, Tx on Saturday to take on Sam Houston St, which knows all about winning at home, as the Bearkats are a perfect 12-0 at the Bernard G. Johnson Coliseum. Both teams can score, as SF Austin averages 81.1 PPG (17th) on 52.3% shooting (2nd), while Sam Hou St averages 80.8 PPG (21st). SF Austin owns a solid trio of guards in Johnson (15.7 & 4.4), Ware (13.4) and Kachelries (11.1 & 4.4 APG) plus a pair of 6-7 sophomores start up front in Kensmil (15.8 & 7.1) and Solomon (7.8 & 4.9). Sam Houston head coach Jason Hooten opened the season having lost four of five starters for the SECOND straight year. The team opened 15-6 last season but was just 18-13 when the season was shut down. Guard Nutall is the lone returning starter and he leads the team averaging 19.3 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG) and while fellow guard Lampley (15.0 & 3.9) is the only other double digit scorer, this year's team enters its final regular season game on quite a roll. The Bearkats were just 3-5 after a Dec 16 loss at Texas but take the court tonight having won 16 of their last 18 games! One of those losses was at Sf Austin back on Jan 31 (78-68) and while the Bearkats are looking for revenge from that defeat, that's NOT the most important aspect of this game. Nicholls St has completed its regular season at 14-2 in the Southland but Sam Houston St comes in 13-2 and with a win, can match Nicholls St's record. Better yet, since the Bearkats swept the season series over the Colonels, a win means Sam Houston St earns the No. 1 seed in the conference tourney. Revenge AND playing for the No. 1 seed in the tourney in a game at home where the Bearkats are 12-0. Good enough for me! Good luck...Larry |
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03-06-21 | USC v. UCLA +2 | Top | 64-63 | Win | 101 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error of the Month is on UCLA at 4:00 ET. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans have won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season before the shut down. Mick Cronin coached at Cincinnati for 13 seasons, leading the Bearcats to the "Big Dance" in each of his last nine years, while averaging 26.1 wins per season in that span. His first year as UCLA's head coach ended 19-12, including a 12-6 Pac-12 record, good enough to get the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. UCLA wouldn’t get their chance to win the tournament though as the Pac-12 tournament and subsequently the NCAA tournament were cancelled on the same day last March. The two LA rivals met tonight at Pauley Pavilion with the visiting Trojans at 14-5 in Pac 12 play and the Bruins at 13-5. The winner would be in position to 'steal' the Pac 12's regular season title from Oregon, IF the 13-4 Ducks lose Sunday at Oregon St. It's simple, the UCLA-USC winner would have more Pac-12 wins than Oregon (and a higher winning percentage), which would give them the No. 1 seed in next week's Pac-12 tournament. Considering Oregon St won 75-64 at Oregon earlier this year, the USC-UCLA winner will have a reasonable rooting interest in Sunday's game in Corvallis. USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season. Onyeka Okongwu left for the NBA, Elijah Weaver transferred to University of Dayton plus seniors Jonah Mathews, Nick Rakocevic, and Daniel Utomi all graduated. However, Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. Evan Mobley has been as "good as advertised," averaging 16.2 & 8.5. He joins his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who is adding 9.1 & 7.7. Peterson is a 6-8 swingman from Rice who averages 9.8 & 5.1 while guards are Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St. Eaddy is averaging 13.9 PPG and White 7.0. The 6-9 Goodwin, a grad transfer from Wofford adds 5.9 & 3.8 off the bench. UCLA's 6-9 guard Chris Smith averaged 12.6 points and 6.4 rebounds in UCLA's first eight games but was lost for the season with a knee injury. More recently, the 6-10 Jalen Hill (6.1 & 5.5) has not played since Feb 6 (personal reasons). However, the Bruins still have FIVE players averaging in double digits. PG Campbell (10.6 & 5.7 APG) misses Smith but is still surrounded by "big guards" like the 6-6 Zuzang (14.2 & 4.3), the 6-6 Jaquez (11.8 & 6.0) and the 6-6 Bernard (10.0 & 4.5). Without Hill, it's just the 6-9 Riley (10.3 & 5.3) up front. Both USC and UCLA have stumbled recently and have no one to blame but themselves if they fall short in the final regular season standings. USC had lost THREE of four before routing Stanford 79-42 at home on Wednesday, while UCLA's 82-74 Wednesday loss at Oregon was the team's second straight. Which team "shows up" better on Saturday? I think "revenge" works VERY well here between these two "classic" rivals. Back on Feb 6 at USC, the Trojans won 66-48, as the 48 points UCLA scored marked a season low (Bruins had just 20 points at the half!). UCLA shot just 33.9 percent in that loss, including just 15.8% on threes (3 of 19). The Bruins are shooting 46.2% on the season, including 36.9% on threes. Don't they HAVE to shoot better here in this HUGE game? What's more, UCLA is 11-0 SU at Pauley Pavilion this season, so why are the Bruins the small home dog? Good luck...Larry |
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03-06-21 | Virginia v. Louisville +2 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* ACC Showdown is on Louisville at 4:00 ET. No. 21 Virginia is 16-6 (12-4 in the ACC) and clinched a top-four seed and a double-bye in next week's ACC tournament with its victory over Miami on Monday night. Louisville (15-5 / 8-4 ACC in ACC) has that same goal in mind when the Cardinals host the Cavaliers on Saturday in the regular-season conference finale for both teams. Virginia halted a three-game losing streak with its 62-51 win over the Hurricanes on Senior Night in Charlottesville, Va., the final home game for Sam Hauser, Jay Huff, Tomas Woldetensae and Austin Katstra. The 6-8 Houser leads the team in scoring (15.5) plus adds 6.7 RPG, while the 7-1 leads in rebounding (7.1), while adding 13.3 PPG. Woldetensae (4.4) has had a disappointing senior season, while Katstra (0.6 PPG) is a non-factor. SG Murphy (10.8) and PG Clark (9.8 & 4.6 APG) get help on the perimeter from Morsell (4.7) and Beekman (4.7). However, UVA is known for its defense and that's the case once again this season, as the Cavaliers are allowing 60.2 PPG (8th in the nation). Louisville swingman Jordan Nwora (18.0 & 7.7) is gone from last season's team but FOUR starters returned. However, it's Carlik Jones who leads the team in scoring, averaging 17.6-5.2-4.5. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year. He's joined by returning guard Johnson (12.5 & 5.7) in the backcourt. The 6-7 Williamson did little last season but averages 10.0 & 7.9 this season plus 6-9 redshirt freshman Withers is adding 10.1 & 8.0. True freshman guard Davis (7.9 & 3.3) and the 6-8 Slazinski (6.2 & 3.4) round out the main contributors. Seeding for the ACC tournament will be determined by winning percentage. Louisville enters the weekend in the No. 4 slot with a .667 winning percentage, ranked between Virginia Tech (.692) and Georgia Tech (.625). With a potential double-bye and automatic quarterfinal berth at stake, there is a lot on the line Saturday for the Cards and they proved they can win "when needed" last Saturday at Duke, 80-73 in OT. Jones scored seven of his 25 points in OT, with Withers adding 16 points and nine rebounds and Samuell Williamson posting a double-double with 14 points and 12 boards. UVa has little to play for here and is looking forward to a few days of rest. A win here and Louisville gets those "few days of rest, as well. That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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03-06-21 | LSU v. Missouri -2 | Top | 86-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Missouri at 3:00 ET. The LSU Tigers are 15-8 (10-6 SEC) and the Missouri Tigers are 15-7 (8-7 SEC) as the SEC rivals square off Saturday in Columbia, Mo (only meeting this season). LSU is trying to secure a top-four seed and a double-bye in the league tournament next week. Meanwhile, Missouri will land somewhere between a No. 5 and No. 8 seed in the SEC event, depending on the outcome of games Saturday. Both schools are also looking to improve their seeding for the NCAA Tournament, hoping to avoid the Nos. 8-9 zone in that bracket and the potential of facing a No. 1 seed if they win their first game. "We need another Quad 1 win," LSU head coach Will Wade said. "We need to try to improve our SEC tournament standing, improve our standing for the NCAA Tournament, all that stuff's important." The Tigers are not a deep team but have a pair of guards and frontcourt players who are top-notch. Thomas (22.8 & 3.4) and Smart (16.0-3.3-4.1) man the backcourt, while the 6-9 Watford (16.0 & 7.4) and the 6-7 Days (11.7 & 7.5) star up front. In contrast, Missouri has SEVEN players contributing. Three double digit scorers roam the backcourt in Dru Smith (14.0-3.5-3.9), Pinson (14.0-2.9-3.0) and Mark Smith (10.1). Up front, the 6-10 Tilmon (12.9 & 7.6) leads the way, supported by the 6-7 Brown (7.5 & 5.9) and the 6-10 Mitchell Smith (4.8 & 5.0). What's the limit on the number of Smiths allowed on one team? Missouri had lost FOUR of five games before snapping its late-season slump with a 72-70 victory at Florida this past Wednesday. Getting center Jeremiah Tilmon back in the starting lineup has steadied Missouri. He missed two games (Feb 13 vs Arkansas and Feb 16 vs. Georgia) while mourning the death of his grandmother and the team lost both games. However, in the three games since he returned, the Tigers are 2-1 with Tilmon scoring 39 points, pulling down 19 rebounds and blocking five shots. He MAKES a difference. LSU is a dangerous team but is just 3-6 SU on the road, winning at Ole Miss (9-8 SEC), A&M (2-7) and Miss St (8-8). Missouri is not currently ranked but had spent 11 straight weeks in the top-25 before falling out in the Mar 1 poll (rose as high as No. 10 back on Feb 8). In a Tigers vs Tigers matchup, I'm siding with Missouri. "Show me!" Good luck...Larry |
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03-05-21 | Eastern Kentucky v. Morehead State -1 | Top | 64-67 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Tourney Takedown (OVC) is on Morehead St at 10:30 ET. Belmont is the overwhelming favorite to win the OVC tourney but the Eastern Kentucky Colonels and Morehead St Eagles meet tonight from the Ford Center (Evansville, In) and the winner will get its shot against Belmont in the championship game (I'm assuming Belmont gets past Jacksonville in tonight's other OVC semifinal game). The game will feature Eastern Kentucky's offense (82.9 PPG ranks 8th in the nation) up against Morehead State's defense (63.4 PPG allowed ranks 33rd). The two schools have met twice this season but those contests came back in December. Eastern Ky won 71-68 at home (Dec 7) and then lost 75-62 at Morehead St on Dec 14 (I'll get back to these games shortly). The Colonels are led freshman PG Green (15.3-3.4-5.1) and 6-9 junior King (15.2 & 6.3). Guard Guard Lewis (11.1 & 5.2) plus the 6-7 Moreno (10.1 & 4.8) also add double digits in points. Green scored 23 points, including clinching free throws with 12 seconds left, as Eastern Kentucky survived a last-gasp try from Austin Peay to edge the Governors 70-67 last night. Austin Peay was just 3 of 17 on three-pointers, allowing Eastern Ky to win despite scoring about 13 points under its season average. The Eagles have SIX players averaging 25-plus minutes, while chipping in between 7.3 and 13.3 PPG. 6-10 freshman Broome leads in scoring (13.3) and rebounding (8.7) plus juniors guards Devon Cooper (11.7 & 5.1) and Potter (11.4 & 5.7) compromise a VERY good backcourt duo. Ta'lon Cooper (8.3 PPG) came off the bench to score 17 points to carry No. 2 seed Morehead State to a 61-54 win over Southeast Missouri on Wednesday night. Broome had 14 & 11 plus Devon Cooper added 12 points. Morehead St came up big defensively, allowing only 54 points on 35.7% shooting. Looking back to those two regular season meetings, Eastern Ky averaged just 66.5 PPG against Morehead St, 16 points less than the team's season average. This has been a "breakout season" for Morehead St head coach Preston Spradlin, who went just 46-69 in his first four seasons at the school. He leads his team into this contest having won 17 of its last 18 games, losing only 73-58 at Belmont (note: The Eagles avenged that loss with an 89-82 home win over Belmont). I had a HUGE play on Eastern Ky last night (eked out a win) but will go against the Colonels in this one against the 'hottest' team in the OVC, which also owns an advantage of having played Wednesday, NOT last night like EKU. Good luck...Larry |