Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-13-21 | Islanders +172 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 172 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Islanders. Both teams have looked excellent so far in the postseason. The Islanders average 2.71 goals per game, which ranks 21st, while they concede just 2.23, which ranks second. The Lightning average 3.21 GPG, whih ranks ninth, while allowing 2.59, which ranks sixth. Tampa's offensive numbers are better, while New York's defensive numbers are better. But overall these teams matchup well and in my opinion, I think the Isles have much more than just a "punchers chance" in Game 1. J-G Pageau leads the Isles in scoring int he playoffs with 13 points, while Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov each hae four wins piece. Andrei Vasileskiy has played all 11 of Tampa's playoff games and he has a superb 2.24 GAA. New York comes in with a chip on its shoulder and with something to prove. I say the Islanders pull off the upset in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. The play is the Islanders. Good luck...Larry |
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06-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox +105 | Top | 18-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Red Sox. I think Boston will bounce back here after yesterday's 7-2 loss. Boston has won seven of its last ten overall. It took the first game of this series with the Jays 6-5, before yesterday's setback. These teams actually play again tomorrow here as well to conclude the four-game series. After that Boston hits the road for two weeks. The Jays have won six of their last ten, and they hand the ball to Robbie Ray (3-2, 3.36 ERA), who took a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings while striking out 13. Ray's been great overall this year, but if he's had one tiny knock against him, it's been his performance on the road where he's 0-1 with a pedestrian 3.91 ERA. The home side counters with Martin Perez (4-3, 3.88), who gave up six runs over two innings in a loss to the Astros in his last outing. Previous to that he went eight scoreless against Houston. Overall though Perez is enjoying a resurgent season, and interesting to note that he's been particularly effective in all "day" games this season, going 2-0 with a tiny 0.99 ERA thus far. Ray has been great, but regression seems imminent for the Jays' overacheiving starter in my opinion. And Perez looks primed for a bounce-back here in front of the home town crowd, as does his team, which enters having gone 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a five runs or greater home loss to an opponent. Great value on the hungry home side here! Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 32 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Clippers. It appears more and more that it'll be the Suns and Jazz playing for the Western Conference crown. I don't think the Clippers are going to get swept and if there's no better time than now if they're going to get back into this series. The Jazz held serve on their own floor, but star Donovan Mitchell was seen limping back to the locker room. He'll play, but his health is a concern here for Utah. Especially with a 2-0 lead, it's hard to know exactly how hard to play Mitchell, or to continue to play him if they go down early in Game 3. The Clippers return home and I think Kawhi Leonard and Paul George hae more than enough in the tank to get back into this series. LA has been great in this position for bettors as well, going 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. Utah on the other is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 on the road against teams with winning home records. And the Clippers did win at home, as they're 27-13 ATS overall here this season. The stage is set for a LA bounce-back. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-21 | Royals v. A's -141 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Atheltics. I like the A's to build off their 4-3 win here yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Jackson Kowar (0-1, 54.00 ERA), who was crushed in his big league debut last week, allowing four runs off three hits with two walks over only 2/3's of an innings. Clearly, that wasn't how Kowar or the Royals expected that start to go and the only way he can go from here is "up," however I still think its asking a lot vs. this red hot A's side that's looking for any advantage it can get. Oakland has to be feeling confident here as well with James Kaprielian (2-1, 3.08), who took an unfortunate loss vs. the Rockies in his last outing, allowing two runs with six strikeouts over five innings. And it was at Coors Field as well. Kaprielian is 1-0 with 0.00 ERA at home and I think he's well worth the price of admission in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. And so in this battle between young starters, I'm laying the price on the already tested Kaprielian and the hungry home side. The play is Oakland. Good luck...Larry |
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06-12-21 | Switzerland v. Wales OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* DEBUT TOTAL is on the OVER Wales/Switzerland. Both teams have hopes of reach at least the first knockout round, but Group A is a very tough one. It will be crucial for either of these hopeful sides to earn a win here, and as such, I'm expecting more of a wide-open game, rather than a slower-paced "chess match." Wales comes in with some momentum here, as it put together a five-game unbeaten streak in qualifying to finish runner-up to Croatia. Both teams are essentially going to be fighting for second place behind Italy. Switzerland lost to Poland in the round of 16 five years ago. It's won six games in a row and it held Span to a 1-1 draw ahead of that streak. Both teams are filled with talent and each is desperate for a victory to open. I say that results in goals, not a defensive affair. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL PLAY is on the Nuggets. The Suns have been impressive. They beat the Lakers in six games, but there was an asterisk beside that series win, because of the injuries to both Anthony Davis, Lebron James and others. Denver isn't at full strength either, with star player Jamal Murray suffering a season-ending injury about a month before the regular season ended. The Nuggets' strength has always been their depth and experience though, and with league MVP Nikola Jokic now playing with a chip on his shoulder here in an attempt to get his team back into this series, I do indeed expect Denver to do just that in this crucial Game 3 at home. D'Andre Ayton has so far been up to the task of "slowing down" Jokic, but note that the Suns have always struggled in this building, going just 3-7 ATS in their last ten on this floor. An 0-3 hole will clearly be too much to climb out of. Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. were non-existent over the first two games, but I say a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered for Denver in Game 3. Lay the short points, the play is the Nuggets. Good luck...Larry |
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06-11-21 | Angels -131 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Angels. The bottom line for this interleague matchup is that I feel that Shohei Ohtani could/should in fact be a bigger favorite in this starting pitching matchup. Ohtani (2-1, 2.76 ERA) most recently dominated the Mariners for his second win of the season last Friday, allowing two runs, no walks and posting ten strikeouts over six innings. Over 23.2 innings of work he's posted a sharp 30/7 K/W. Merrill Kelly (2-6, 5.16) counters for the Diamondbacks, and he most recently was shelled for five runs off six hits in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision for the Brewers. Over 70.1 innings Kelly has posted a respectable 62/19 K/W, but I still say that he's clearly overmatched going up against the red hot Ohtani. The Angels offense is white hot, its off a sweep of the Royals, and it's posted 39 combined runs over its past five games. Look for LA to open up this IL series with a convincing victory. Lay this price with confidence. Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bucks. Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets have a 2-0 lead in this series, but there's no way (in my opinion right now anyways), that the Bucks are going to get swept in this series. And what better time than now to try and get back into it with their first game back at home where they went 28-10 ATS this seaosn. Brooklyn has been decent on the road as well with a 21-17 ATS record, but it's still a lot better at home than away from friendly confines. And so this is it for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Is he the MVP? Is he able to carry this Bucks team on his back in his own building to a single victory? He's so far been "OK" in this series, averaging 24.3 points and 13.7 boards per game. Milwaukee struggled with its outside shooting in Brooklyn, but I just can't see that trend continuing for a third-straight game, especially on its own floor. The Nets were one of the worst defensive teams in the league during the regular season, but somehow they've been amazingly consistent on that end of the floor now that the playoffs are here. But with the continued absence of James Harden putting extra minutes onto KD and Kyrie Irving, fatigue is a major concern now for the Nets at this point as well. In this essentially do or die scenario, I'm banking on Giannis doing more than enough to cover this small spread. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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06-10-21 | Braves v. Phillies -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* NL EAST BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Phillies. Philadelphia came away with a 2-1 win yesterday, getting a walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth to "steal" it away from the Braves. It was evenly matched throughout. I expect the "get-a-way" game to be a bit more decisive though, as I look for the Phillies to build off last night's thrilling win. The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (4-3, 3.64 ERA), who was shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Ddogers on Friday. Overall it's been a strong start for Anderson this year, but if he's had one "knock" against him, it's been his performance in "day" games this year (note that he's 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA in all "night" games and 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in all "day" contests.) The home side counters with the stead Zack Wheeler (4-3, 2.51), who gave up two runs with eight strikeouts over eight eight innings in what turned out to be a very unfortunate loss to the Nationals in his last outing. Over 82.1 innings of work thus far Wheeler sports a 0.94 WHIP and a huge 100/18 K/W ratio. Also note that Wheeler's been at his best in all day games, going 3-0 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Nuggets/Suns. Game 1 went under the number in the Suns 122-105 win, but I expect more of a defensive affair in Game 2. The Nuggets have been leaning on big man Nikola Jokic all season, and just yesterday he finally earned his first MVP award ever. Jokic and the Nuggets are going to be even extra motivated now to deliver an upset victory, before this series shifts back to Denver. The Suns played to four straight "unders" to open their series with the Lakers, but they've now seen the total go over in two straight. We know Phoenix can score, but the big difference this year for the Suns has been their progression on the defensive end. I think the Suns can duplicate their defensive performance from Game 1 here, although I think they'll have their hands full this time for a full four-quarters with an experienced and aggressive Denver defense. When I look at this game from a situational stand point, it definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair, than a run-and-gun shootout in my opinion. But note as well, Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss of 15 or more points against an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-21 | Bruins -125 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-DIVISIONAL FINAL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Bruins. The Bruins dropped a crucial Game 5 at home to the Islanders, but I think that Tuukka Rask and the visiting side will be up to the task to send this one back home for a Game 7. The Islanders are now running on fumes after back-to-back victories, and I think they'll predictably stumble here. New York has superior defensive numbers, ranked No. 2 overall, but Boston isn't far behind, ranked fifth in that department. The Islanders are better at home than on the road, but the Bruins are a near-perfect 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed five or more goals in. Boston was down big in Game 5 and almost mounted the comeback. As I say, New York is now clearly the one that's fatigued in this battle, and I say that Boston takes advantage. This is the best price yet on the Bruins so far in this series, and it's the right time to back them in this spot as well. The play is Boston in Game 6. Good luck...Larry |
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06-09-21 | Braves v. Phillies -123 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* NL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Phillies. I had a play on Aaron Nola and the Phillies yesterday, and that turned out to be my only losing MLB pick out of my three. Suffice it to say, I absolutely think the home side can bounce back here and I think the price is great as well in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Tucker Davidson (0-0, 2.31 ERA), who is making his second straight start and third start of the season for the Braves. Davidson will likely remain in the rotation out of neccessity. The sample size is obviously very small, and I think that inevitable regression is in store, especially in this difficult road venue. The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-5, 4.10), who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays in his last outing. Eflin's last start was skipped over to give him extra rest. Note that while he's 1-4 with a 5.75 ERA on the road this year, Eflin's consistently been at his best at home, going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Look for the revenge-minded home side to bounce back here in this favorable matchup and for Eflin to continue his strong play at home. Lay the reasonable price, the play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
10* THIRD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on the Clippers. It took the Clippers seven games to advance, but I think they can keep the momentum rolling here after back-to-back victories over the pesky Mavericks. The Jazz have been off for over a week, and yes, I do absolutely think that "rest" will lead to "rust" here. Kawhi Leonard has refound his MVP form after a slow start to the playoffs. He enters this series off a huge Game 7, pouring in 28 points and grabbing ten boards with nine assists and four steals. Marcus Morris and Paul George have also found their stride. Utah rolled over the Grizzlies in five games, but that was almost a week ago. Can Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert pick up where they left off? I'll point out that the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Jazz are just 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing with three or more days of rest. Timing and chemistry is crucial to success in the playoffs. The Clippers have "found their groove" finally in my opinion. I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is LA. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-21 | Royals v. Angels -140 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* American League BLOWOUT play of the MONTH is on the Angels. I think the Angels will build off their big 8-3 win here last night over the Royals. Kansas City hands the ball to rookie Kris Bubic (1-0, 2.12 ERA) who is already showing signs of major regression after a sharp opening vitory, allowing four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Thursday. Clearly, the book is still out on Bubic. The home side counters with the steady Andrew Heaney (3-3, 4.76), who gave up one run over seven innings, while striking out seven in a victory over the Giants on Tuesday. Heaney has admittedly been better on the road than at home this season, but LA is 7-1 in its last eight after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. I think the Angels are seeing the ball well right now and everything points to Bubic "getting the hook" early. Look for Heaney to build off his last start and to get back on track in front of the home town crowd. This one has "BLOWOUT" written all over it. The play is LA. Good luck...Larry |
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06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Lightning/Hurricanes. It's do or die for Carolina. As good as the Hurricanes have looked all season and as much potential as they showed, they're clearly still no match for the defending champs. The Lightning have a big opportunity to end this series here and now, but clealry the Canes won't be going down without a fight. The first three games of this series were a tight defensive affair, but Game 4 turned into a shootout in the Lightning's 6-4 win. And one of the biggest reasons behind that was that the Hurricanes were forced to be the aggressor to try and get back into the series. They couldn't afford to play a defensive style of game and come out on top against the equally as defensive-minded Lightning, instead they had to push the pace from start to finish. And that's again the case here. And by pushing the pace with their defenseman in the offensive attack, it leaves Carolina open on the backend to this opportunistic Lightning offense. I say Game 5 will have a similar final combined score as what we saw in Game 4. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-21 | Cubs v. Padres -119 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Padres. The Padres have now lost six of their last ten after back-to-back home losses to the Mets. The Friars will now look to turn the page and get back to their winning ways here, against a Cubs team that's primed for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion. Chicago comes to town after losing two of three in San Francisco, but coming from behind last night for a satisfying 4-3 victory in the finale. Ryan Weathers (2-2, 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP), gets the nod for the home side here, he most recently lost to these very Cubs on Tuesday, allowing four runs over five innings. It was easily his worst start of the year. The good news though is that Weathers has been better at home than on the road witha tiny 1.98 ERA. Adbert Alzolay (4-4, 3.63) is coming off a win for Chicago, allowing one run with seven strikeouts over five innings over these very Padres last Wednesday. The rookie's been sharp so far, but I think he's still in over his head here in this difficult road venue. Despite how well Alzolay has thrown of late, I believe Weathers at home here is the correct call. And at this price, I love the Padres to bounce back as well. The play is indeed, San Diego. Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-21 | Jets +131 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Jets. I know it's hard to believe that Winnipeg could muster up a win here after three straight losses, but in this back-to-back scenario, I like the Jets to do just that. Montreal has been unbelievable. The goaltending play of Carey Price has been phenomenal. Winnipeg has played well though recently in the second game of a back-to-back, going 5-2 in its last seven in that position. The Jets numbers for the season are still superior(Winnipeg averages 2.83 GPG and it allows 2.33, while Montreal averages 2.22 GPG, while conceding 2.33) and I just don't think the Canadiens have it in them to complete the four-game sweep here. The Habs had to come back from a 1-3 deficit to beat the heavily favored Leafs in seven games, and they've now won three straight in this series. I say Montreal's win streak ends at six and Winnipeg digs deep, plays with pride and guts out at least a single victory in this series. The play is the Jets. Good luck...Larry |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER is on the Bucks. I like the Bucks to bounce back here and find a way to "steal" Game 2. So far in the playoffs the Bucks are averaging 116.2 PPG, while conceding 101.4. Clearly, Game 1 didn't go as planned. Expect to see another big game from star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 25.6 points and 14.2 rebounds. The Nets are averaging 122 points and allowing 111.3. No big surprise that Kevin Durant has so far led the way offensively, as he's averaged 32 points and three assists so far. The loss of James Harden is a big one for the Nets. Now Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have to log considerably more minutes. They're a handful, but the Bucks have to be liking their chances for a bounce back here (note that they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest.) Milwaukee shot terribly from the floor in Game 1, which is very atypical. Look for the Bucks to come out and take advantage of what will be a tired Nets side. Obviously the outright is possible, but let's grab the points. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights -111 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Golden Knights. I think the Golden Knights offer fantastic value at home here to even this series back up. The Avalanche's six-game win streak came to an end in dramatic fashion in Game 3 and I think that Colorado will suffer another letdown here, before it heads back home for Game 5. The Golden Knights peppered Avs' netminder Philipp Grubauer with 43 shots last time out and there's no reason not to think that they can't duplicate that effort again here as well. These teams numbers are evenly matched on both ends of the ice. With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched as well. The momentum though has swung now in favor of the Knights after their Game 3 victory, which was Colorado's first setback so far in the playoffs. I say Colorado has now lost its momentum, and with the knowledge that it'll be returning home for Game 5, I believe it gets caught flat-footed tonight. The play is the Golden Knights. Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -142 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -142 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* 37-YEAR CLUB PLAY is on the Yankees. Boston won here last night by a score of 7-3, and I think the Yanks will respond here in the finale and avenge that setback. New York is clearly desperate again here after losing three in a row and seven of its last ten overall. Boston enters on the other end of the spectrum, satisfied after three straight victories and winning six of its last ten overall. And with a single interleague game at home against Miami, before seven games in a row at home against Houston and Toronto, this is also a "look ahead" position for the visiting side. Clearly, New York can ill afford to look past anyone these days. Garrett Richards (4-4, 3.75 ERA), is coming off a loss against Houston on Tuesday for the Red Sox. Over a three-game stretch he's posted a poor 14/12 K/W. Domingo German (4-3, 3.27) has been much more consistent for this inconsistent Yankees team than his counterpart has been for his squad. German most recently allowed thre runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Rays on Tuesday. Over 55 innings of work German owns a sharp 52/10 K/W. I like German for sure in this starting pitching matchup, but I'll also point out that the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back home losses to an opponent. All things considered, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. The value swings to New York in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Hawks. Whether 76ers' big man Joel Embiid plays or not, I like the visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Atlanta made the surging Knicks look like the Knicks of old in its opening round series win. The Hawks were dominant defensively, effectively slowing down the red hot Julius Randle. Clint Capela is a force to be reckoned with down low for the Hawks, and he's an X-factor in this play for me. Trae Young averages 29 points and 9.8 assists against a stingy Knicks defense, and there's no reason not to think those numbers can't improve here against a less impressive 76ers' defense. With Embiid either out, or hobbled, the door is open here for Atlanta in Game 1. Nate McMillan has been a big difference-maker for Young and company and I believe he'll have something up his sleeve as well for the 76ers today. Outright win? Of course. But in the end my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is the Hawks. Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres +118 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR is the Padres. San Diego held on for a 2-0 win last night, and I believe it'll find a way to get the job done here as well against Mets' ace Jacob DeGrom. DeGrom (4-2, 0.71 ERA), went six scoreless against the Diamondbacks on Monday. DeGrom has been dominant both at home and on the road this year. It's hard to imagine though the hard-throwing right-hander keeping up this elite pace for too much longer. Especially in the warming months in San Diego. DeGrom is amazing, but I just think that Padres' starter Joe Musgrove (4-4, 2.08) will be up to the task to match his counterpart inning for inning. Musgrove most recently pitched five innings of relief in a loss in Houston and gave up zero runs in the no-decision. Musgrove owns a 79/12 K/W and 0.76 WHIP. As I said, I absolutely believe Musgrove can match DeGrom at home here. The Mets anemic offense couldn't muster up one measley run last night, and I can't see the unit generating much of anything tonight either. The play here is clear. The play is the Padres! Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Bucks. This is going to be an interesting series. I think that Game 1 will be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, and in a scenario like that I'm definitely going to grab the points. Milwaukee rolled to four straight victories over the Heat, while Brooklyn needed five games to get past the Celtics. The Bucks led the league in scoring with 120.1 PPG. Giannis led the way with 23 points, 15 boards and 7.8 assists against the Heat. The Nets averaged 118.6 PPG during the regular season. Kevin Duran, Kyrie Irving and James Harden played just eight games together in the regular season. There are a couple of strong trends worth mentioning here, as Brooklyn is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home here against the Bucks, while Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the +3.5 to +5.5 points range. As I stated off the top, this one is going to come down to the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-05-21 | Bruins v. Islanders +124 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 124 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Islanders. This has been a competitive, back and forth series. Boston won Game 1 by a score of 5-2. New York then won Game 2 by a score of 4-3 in overtime, before Boston then won here in Game 3 by a score of 2-1 in OT. Now it's time for the Islanders to respond in Game 4 and before this series shifts back to Boston. These teams regular season numbers on both ends of the ice are very even. Boston was great over the second half of the season, while New York was consistent from start to finish. The Islanders were especially good at home as well, going 23-5-2-2 there so far. New York has also responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge an OT home loss to an opponent (one other strong/current trend to point out is that the Isles are 4-1 in their last five as a home dog.) I love New York in this spot, and getting it as an underdog at home is the proverbial "icing on the cake." The play is the Islanders. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Knights. Let's just wheel out the Stanley Cup right now and present it to the Avalanche. Right? They're unstoppable?! That's actually so far been the case, as Colorado swept the Blues in four games to open up, while also taking both games at home over the Knights. Clearly, Las Vegas was gassed after its seven game series win over the Wild, as it then got blown out 7-1 in Game 1 of this series. But the Knights took Game 2 to overtime before losing, and now I think they'll put it all together and get back into this series with a big win at home. Colorado pounced on a tired Golden Knights team, but now the tables have turned. The Avalanche are fatigued and the Las Vegas has a chance to rally in its own building. Note that Vegas was 23-6-1-2 here during the regular season. These teams sport almost identical numbers on both ends of the ice, but the Knights still lead the league defensively, conceding just 2.14 GPG. Las Vegas is also 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge an OT road loss against an opponent. I think Colorado finally has its letdown here against a desperate Knights team that'll be throwing everything it has at the Avs here to avoid the 0-3 hole. Great price, the play is Las Vegas. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Clippers/Mavericks. This has been a highly entertaining series. Dallas has played better than most thought it would and it has a golden opportunity here to close out the Clippers. LA won't have the luxury here to sit back and play aggressive defense, instead it'll have to force the tempo here and outshoot this red hot Mavericks offense if it has any chance of extending this series to a seventh game. Situationally in my opinion, this one absolutely sets up as a "run-and-gun" shootout, rather than a grind it out "chess match." Each team is filled with offensive talent, and note that the Clippers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed the over. Good luck...Larry |
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06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
10* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Blue Jays. Houston was busy losing 5-1 in Boston yesterday afternoon, while Toronto had the day off after beating the Marlins 6-5 on the road in its most recent action. As good as Zack Grienke has been this year for the Astros, Hyun-Jin Ryu has been even better though for the Jays. And at this price at home, I absolutely like Toronto in this spot. Greinke (5-2, 3.67 ERA) gave up one run over eight innings in a victory over the Padres on Sunday. Over 73.2 innings of work he owns a decent 57/15 K/W. Ryu (5-2, 2.62) won a rain-shortened contest last time out, allowing two runs with five strikeouts over five innings. So far Ryu has a sharp 58/8 K/W over 58.1 innings of work. Ryu though has absolutely been at his best at home this year, entering this contest having gone 2-0 with a minuscule 0.90 ERA here so far this season. I like the way this one sets up for the Jays scheduling wise, and I believe they also have the superior starting pitcher on the hill to open. As stated off the top, at this price the Jays are absolutely the play in this contest. Good luck...Larry |
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06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
10* ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on the Lakers. The question is. Can LeBron James dig deep here and rally whatever teammates he has around him to beat Chris Paul and Devin Booker at home here in Game 6? The Suns rode 30 points from Booker to a big 115-85 win in Game 5. James had 24 points and seven assists for the Lakers. Andre Drummond and Dennis Schroder were absolute "no shows" though for the Lakers, and I do expect a much better effort from each here at home. You simply can't count out King James in big games. He's also never lost a first round series in his career. Clearly, this is the Lakers biggest game of the year. I just don't think the Suns have the experience to take out the defending champs on their own floor, especially with the knowledge that they have one last chance in their own building to finish it. Phoenix has actually also been an absolute train-wreck in this spot for bettors, going just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six on the road and a terrible 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven following a win of more than ten points. LA on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. I say "The King" has enough left in the tank to push this series to a Game 7. Lay the points, the play is the Lakers. Good luck...Larry |
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06-03-21 | Cubs v. Giants -125 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
10* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Giants. The Giants had their four-game win streak snapped in an 8-1 setback at the Angels two nights ago. The Cubs cross the country for this game red hot, as they've won nine of their last ten. That includes a 6-1 victory and series sweep of the Padres yesterday. After six-straight home victories though, I think that the Cubs finally have their let-down here against this focussed home side. Chicago hands the ball to Zach Davies (2-2, 4.65 ERA) who gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision to the Cards in his last outing. Davies has been fantastic of late, but his performance on the road certainly has to be called into question, as he's 0-1 with a ballooned 6.56 ERA away from "The Friendly Confines." Anthony DeSclafani (4-2, 3.56) is off a no-decision to the Angels, allowing two runs over five innings. DeSclafani has been as solid as San Francisco could possibly have hoped for so far this year, and note that he's allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his ten starts. With an extra day off to prepare, I look for the rested home side to get the job done in the series opener. Great price too. The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry |
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06-03-21 | Hurricanes +138 v. Lightning | Top | 3-2 | Win | 138 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Hurricanes. This has been a tight series, but Tampa has a 2-0 lead. The Lightning have played unbelievable defense, considering they struggled somewhat on that end of the ice in their opening series. The Hurricanes seem to be struggling to find energy after their six-game series win over the Predators, four of those games saw overtime. But with its back against the wall here and looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole, I look for Carolina to dig deep here and post a big winning upset effort on the road in Tampa. Carolina scored three goals or more in all six games against the Prdators. It also allowed two goals or less in three of the six games against the Predators. The Lightning are among the best in every offensive and defensive statistical category, but the Hurricanes numbers are almost identical in every regard. I say that the Hurricanes bounce-back here and it's Tampa that will now come in with "heavy legs" after the satisfying back-to-back road victories. The pressure is on this talented Carolina team, which is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two straight home losses to an opponent. I don't expect Carolina to get swept in this series. Look for the Hurricanes to get back into it with an upset win in Game 3. The play is Carolina. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -7 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
10* LEGEND on the Clippers. Dallas won the first two games. LA won the last two games. So far home-court advantage has been anything but in this series, but I expect that trend to end here. The Clippers come in off a dominant 106-81 win in Game 4, as Dallas star Luka Doncic has just 19 points, while teammate Kristaps Porzingis added 18. Doncic had a neck strain that clearly affected his play and one has to wonder what his current form is here as well? Kawhi Leonard has had a fire lit under him and now the Clippers are in "kill mode." Leonard has 29 points on 11 of 15 shooting in the Game 4 victory. LA looked great on the defensive end and in the transition game and with Doncic still ailing, I see an exact repeat of Game 4 occurring here in Game 5 as well. The Clippers now clearly have the momentum back in this series and I expect them to ride the wave. Look for LA to jump out to an early lead, and to never take the foot off the gas until it hears that final buzzer. Lay the points, the play is the Clippers. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER On the Jets. Will rest lead to rust for the Winnipeg Jets here, who have been waiting for their opponent for a week after dispatching the Oilers in four games? I say no. I say the extra time off here will only help Winnipeg at this point of the season. Colorado had a few extra days off between its first and second series and it destroyed the Golden Knights 7-1 in their first game of the second round, after Vegas went to seven games to advance past Minnesota. The Habs had to fight back from a 3-1 hole to beat the Leafs and are clearly now physically and emotionally drained. I can't see the Canadiens coming out with any energy here whatsoever. The Jets are also 4-0 their last four at home, while the Canadiens are just 6-15 in their last 21 following a victory. The Canadiens have proven that they can't be taken lightly, and I don't expect the Jets to do that at all. Instead, I believe Winnipeg will be out to set an early tone in this series and take advantage of this fatigued Montreal team. Great price, the play is the Jets. Good luck...Larry |
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06-02-21 | Rays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Yankees. New York broke a four-game slide with a 5-3 extra-innings win in Game 2 of this four-game series against the AL East leading Rays and I like it to keep the momentum rolling here in what I believe is a favorable matchup of starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (2-0, 3.29 ERA), who admittedly has looked strong in is limited time. And when I say limited, I mean limited. This is his fourth career start here today. He has a strong 32/7 K/W over 27.1 innings, but the book is still out on the rookie, as the sample size is still much too small in my opinion. His counterpart today is veteran Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.22) who earned a no-decision after a shaky outing last time out, givin gup three runs over five innings against the hard-hitting Jays. Montgomery hasn't been perfect this year, but he's consistently been at his best on this field this year, going 1-1 with a 3.08 ERA at home. It's been a miserable stretch for Yankees fans, but with a chance to take back-to-back games against their No. 1 rival, I think Montgomery is the correct call here, as everything points to regression from McClanahan finally. Lay the reasonable price, the play is New York. Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -111 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -111 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Hurricanes. Game 1 was evenly matched. Tampa had a couple extra days off between series though, and that likely was the difference-maker in the end for the defending champs in their eventual 2-1 victory. I'm not reading too much into Carolina's lacklustre Game 1 offensive performance. They Canes came into that contest average 3.15 GPG in the playoffs and they were just tired and emotionally drained from their six-game series win over the Predators, four of those contests seeing OT. But now Carolina is ready to respond here in my opinion. Note, I actually had Tampa in the first game, but I do expect a letdown here finally. Previous to their Game 1 win, the Bolts had been struggling somewhat on the defensive end of the ice. They caught a tired Hurricanes team "off guard" in Game 1, but I don't expect that to happen twice. Look for Carolina to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight as it looks to even things back up in this series before it shifts to Tampa. Great price, the play is Carolina. Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-21 | Celtics +12.5 v. Nets | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Cetlics. I don't think that Jayson Tatum and the Celtics will go down without a fight. The Nets are obviously a really difficult team to play against with three bonafide superstars that can score at will. Tatum is averaging 30.3 points and five boards in the playoffs. Marcus Smart and Evan Fournier have experience, and note that Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded 135 or more points in (lost 141-126 last time out.) Tue Nets were unbelievably efficient with their shooting in Game 4, but despite the victory, they did struggle on the defensive end. Outright victory? I'm definitley not calling for that. But I'll point out that the Celtics are a strong 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road. I say the Nets have a small mental letdown here, leaving the backdoor open just enough for the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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06-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees +110 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
10* FALSE-FAVORITE on the New York Yankees. After getting swept by the Tigers in three games, and dropping the opener of this series yesterday by a score of 3-1, I believe that the Yankees will dig deep here and find a way to get back into the win column. The Rays hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA), who went eight scoreless against the Royals on Wednesday, striking out 11. Previous to that gem he coughed up five runs over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Jays. Domingo German (4-3, 3.06) enters off a loss to Toronto, allowed two earned runs, while striking out five over six innings. Tampa's the hottes team in MLB, and it's 7-3 here now in the season series with New York. Clearly the Yanks are the more "motivated" team today. The Yankees are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in. I say that Tampa finally has a letdown here, and the hungrier home side delivers with this great price. The play is the Yankees. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks. After the Clippers fought from behind to take Game 3, this series has suddenly become a lot more interesting. The Mavericks rolled to two straight road victories in LA to open this series, but the Clippers dug deep and managed to earn the Game 3 victory. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven been fantastic for the Clippers, but it was LA's aggressive defensive play in the second half of Game 3 which was the difference-maker, and I do now expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Dallas is going to have to find a way to slow down Leonard and George, or their two-game advantage is going to slip away quickly. One thing to note is that the Mavericks have in fact seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenage a ten points or greater SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. While the last two games have flown over the number, Game 4 sets up as a defensive affair in my opinion. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-21 | Lightning -105 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Lightning. These teams are evenly matched, but I think the defending champs will find a way to deliver in Game 1 of this series. Tampa averaged 3.2 GPG in the regular season, but with Nikita Kucherov returning for the playoffs, the Lightning seem unstoppable right now. Andrei Vasilevskiy wasn't the greatest in the opening round, but he has the track record and pedigree to return to form here. I think Carolina comes in "gassed" here after its six-game series win over the Predators which saw four of the games going to OT. Tampa's the more rested team, and in my opinion, that matters right now. The Lightning are a sharp 11-4 in their last 14 when playing with three or more days rest and I expect this strong trend to continue here. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Tampa. Good luck...Larry |
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05-30-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Dodgers. This is the finale of a four-game series. The Dodgers took the first game by a score of 4-3, and that total went under the number, but San Francisco has taken the next two, winning 8-5 and 11-6. Both of those went well over the posted number. But with each team's "ace" on the hill tonight, I expect this total to fall under when it finishes. San Francisco hands the ball to Kevin Gausman (5-0, 1.53 ERA), who went five shutout innings in a victory over Arizona on Tuesday, striking out nine in the process. Over 64.2 innings of work, Gausman has conceded only 11 runs. LA looks to bounce back with Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.94) getting the start. Kershaw most recently allowed one run over eight innings in a win over Hosuton on Tuesday, walking no one and striking out six. To go along with his sharp ERA, he also sports a minuscule 0.90 WHIP and a 71/10 K/W over 64.1 innings of work. The Dodgers have also seen the total go under the number in seven of their last nine home games in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed ten or more runs in. I'm banking on these two World class starting pitchers to grab the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
10* SLUG-FEST OF THE MONTH on the OVER Rangers/Mariners. While yesterday's game stayed under the posted total in Seattle's 3-2 win (I had a free play victory on the M's in that one), everything points to more of a "slug-fest" on Saturday. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Mike Foltynewicz (1-4, 4.53 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, going seven scoreless against Houston. Consistency from game-to-game has been Foltynewic's major issue the last couple of seasons though. Also note that he's a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA in all "night" games this season. Justin Dunn (1-2, 3.40) gets the nod for the home side, and he most recently gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres. Dunn has been effective, but he's struggled to go deep into games. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in all "night" games. Texas has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for these starters to "get the hook" early, and then expect that to help in driving this total over the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-21 | Islanders +160 v. Bruins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Islanders. I think that the Islanders are going to "stun" the Bruins in Game 1. These team's offense and defensive numbers are very similar. New York averages only 2.71 GPG, which ranks 21st, but it makes up for it on the other end by conceding just 2.23 GPG, which ranks second. Boston averages 2.93 GPG, which ranks 14th, while allowing 2.39, which ranks fifth. Both are filled with experienced veteran talent, but I'm not buying into the "home ice" advantage here. Note that the Islanders have performed well in this spot for bettors as well by going 7-3 in their last ten as a road dog in the +160 to +175 range. New York faced a powerful Penguins offense, and it looked dominant in its series victory. I say the Islanders have more than enough to earn a split over these first two games in Boston, and I say they take Game 1 and STUN the home side in the process. Good luck...Larry |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Heat. Will Miami storm back and win four games in a row? Almost assuredly not. The Heat surprised everyone last season with their timely run to the Finals, but since then they've struggled to gain that same consistency. Milwaukee has played very well to this point, but not spectacularly. Miami though has for sure struggled across the board, which is uncharacteristic over three sraight games. Despite their win last time out though, note that Giannis and company are still just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. And despite losing Game 3, note that the Heat are still 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight at home. I say Jimmy Butler and the Heat don't go down without a fight today. This is a proud organization, filled with experienced talent and while the outright may not occur, everything does point to this one being decided by whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I'm grabbing the points every time. The play is Miami and the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-21 | Clippers -129 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
10* MONEYLINE PERFECT STORM on the Clippers. This series hasn't gone the way many predicted. Sure, some would have predicted that the Mavericks would be able to take one of the first two games in LA to open up this series, but not many would have had Dallas taking both. Now, with their backs against the wall, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and the Clippers will have to fight tooth and nail to get back into this series and to avoid another massive playoff upset. The Clippers actually lost both final regular season games to avoid having to play the Lakers, a decision which doesn't look the greatest at the moment. LA has struggled on the defensive end over the first two games, but that's very uncharacteristic, as the Clippers were fourth overall on that side of the courst during the regular season. The Clippers also lead the league in three-point shooting, but over the first two games they've also uncharacteristically struggled from range. I believe LA will make the necessary adjustments to "return to the norm" on both the defensive end tonight, and with its shooting performance. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks had a letdown in the playoffs last year after Kristaps Porzingis went down with injury and while they've looked great over these first two games, a letdown is imminent in my opinion. As note, Dallas is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS road victories. One last stat I'll point out is that LA has done very well in this building for bettors, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight here. With their season essentially on the line here, I like the Clippers to find a way to get the job done. Avoid the spread, the play is LA on the money-line. Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 165 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
10* PUCK-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Golden Knights. The Golden Knights are big favorits in Game 7. The Wild have earned back-to-back victories, including a commanding 3-0 victory in Game 6, but I believe Minnesota will now be "gassed" and I expect the opportunistic Knights to take full advantage. Las Vegas has been outplayed over these last two games, but it has the experience and veteran leadership, as well as home ice to calmly bounce back in this position in my opinion. Minnesota averages 3.21 GPG, which is eighth overall, but it's very average defensively, conceding 2.84, which is ranked 15th. The fact that the Wild managed to just blank the Knights as well, doesn't bode well for them here in Game 7 in my opinion. The Knights though are among the league leaders on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.39 GPG, which ranks third, while allowing 2.18, which ranks first. I say that Las Vegas is the better team, that's just been outplayed the last games. I say that Minnesota is now dog tired and it's going to fall flat here. However, I don't think that the Knights will just win here, I believe they're going to win by a signficant margin. The play is Las Vegas on the puck line. Good luck...Larry |
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05-28-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the UNDER Marlins/Red Sox. I look for these two red hot "in form" starters to get the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. This one has "duel" written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Cody Poteet (2-0, 1.06 ERA), who will look to help his team bounce back from yesterday's 3-2 defeat at home to the Phillies. Poteet just went seven scoreless against the Mets on Sunday, striking out four and allowing three hits. Over 17 innings of work he now has a sharp 13/2 K/W. Boston counters with Martin Perez (2-2, 3.55 ERA) who comes in off a strong win over Philadelphia in his last outing, allowing three runs and striking out seven over six innings. Perez has now allowed two or fewer runs in six straight starts and I expect him to continue to progress here vs. this "on again, off again" Marlins lineup. Note as well that the Fish have seen the total dip under the posted number in 11 of their last 17 interleague road games when the total is set between 9 or 9.5. As I mentioned right at the top, I expect these starters to dominate and battle into the latter frames. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -105 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the Mariners. The Rangers have lost five of their last eight games. The Mariners have dropped seven of their last nine. Both teams are equally motivated to win this contest, so let's throw the "motivation" factor out the window. The Rangers come to town off a disheartening 9-8 loss at the Angels and I think they'll have a difficult time bouncing back here. Texas hands the ball to Kolby Allard (1-0, 3.15), who is making his first start of the 2021 season. Note that he's a terrible 1-2 with a ballooned 10.38 ERA in four career appearances vs. the M's, which does include three starts. The hungry home side counters with Chris Flexen (4-2, 5.09), who is 2-0 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts against Texas. Seattle comes in with momentum as well after breaking a six-game slide by taking two of three in Oakland. All things considered, a fantastic price on the home side here in my opinion. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Canes/Predators. Carolina is desperate to end this series, and Nashville is holding on for dear life. I expect this competitive game to produce some offensive fireworks this evening. Carolina has a 3-2 series lead now after snapping a two-game slide. So far home ice advantage has proved to be the difference-maker in this series and while that trend may or may not hold true again here, everything points to a wide-open one that's for sure in my opinion. The Hurricanes are averageing 3.5 GPG in the playoffs, and Nashville is going to have to match pace here if it wants to extend. Note as well that the Preds have averaged 4.5 goals per game at home here in their two playoff games. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a high-scoring over in this one. Good luck...Larry |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 113-84 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Miami Heat. With their backs against the wall and desperate to avoid an 0-3 hole, I like the Heat to dig deep here in Game 3 and find a way to win and cover. Milwaukee barely held on for the 109-107 OT home win in Game 1, but it definitely looked like the better team in its 132-98 Game 2 victory. Miami is interestingly 7-1 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. The Bucks were 28-10 at home this year, and a mediocre 20-16 on the road. The Heat are 19-19 on the road, but 21-15 at home. I can't see Jimmy Butler held down for three straight games. Milwaukee is also just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home. 17,000 people will be in attendance here for the Heat, and I say that matters! Look for Miami to claw its way back into this series. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-21 | Panthers v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Panthers/Lightning. Both teams are equally adept on both ends of the ice. Honestly, it wouldn't be terribly difficult to write a convincing argument for this total to go either way. So why is this total going to fly over the number? The Lightning will be out to atone for their lacklustre 4-1 loss last time out (it's interesting to note as well that the Bolts have seen the total go over in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in), and they'll absolutely want to avoid this series going to a decisive Game 7. The Panthers somehow managed to stifle this potent Lightning offense last time out, but they'll have to match pace with the home side here to once again avoid elimination. This isn't going to be a "chess match," it's going to be a "shoot-out" until the end. This one has over written all over it. Good luck...Larry |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Hawks/Knicks. Game 1 snuck UNDER the number, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 2. Clearly, the Knicks will be laying everything on the line here to try and even up this series and before heading to Atlanta. The Hawks have to be thrilled that they've already earned a split, but they'll be out to prove it wasn't a fluke and to take a commanding grip on this series with another big effort here as well. New York is known for its defense, as it's ranked among the best in several categories The Knicks, however, are going to have to be the aggressors here from the opening tip until the final horn in Game 2. Julius Randle was held in check in Game 1, but I can't see that happening to the MIP of the year in back-to-back games (and it's interesting to note as well that the Knicks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 105 points or fewer.) Atlanta got the win in Game 1 by the skin of its teeth, and that was with Randle having his worst performance of the season basically. Clearly, the Hawks can't be completely satisfied with their performance either. With the Knicks pushing the pace to try and even things up and to send a message to the Hawks before this series shifts to Atlanta, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the LA Lakers. The Lakers didn't look great in Game 1. Over the last two years, the Lakers though have been fantastic at making adjustments from game-to-game and I absolutely expect that to be the case today. The Suns had a few extra days off to prepare for Game 1, but I think LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the defending champs will indeed throw an entirely different look at Phoenix tonight. There was plenty of on-court drama between LeBron James and Chris Paul in Game 1. Paul and Devin Booker looked fresh, but we can expect the Lakers tough-nosed defenders to play much more aggressively here on those two players. LA even had a chance late, as they got very close, but it missed several wide-open three-point shots and was then never able to close the gap. Davis had a poor game as well, and said after that the Game 1 loss was his fault. It's that type of veteran leadership which is going to help LA bounce back here in Game 2 vs. this younger Suns side. In what I expect to be another tight game, look for the Lakers to ultimately pull away down the stretch, and to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 90 points or less in. The play is LA to STUN the Suns in Game 2. Good luck...Larry |
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05-25-21 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* RUN-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Blue Jays. Toronto got off to a great start this year, but it's been struggling significantly over the last few weeks. The Yankees got off to a terrible start this season, but they enter this one as arguably the hottest team in the league. The visiting side comes in hungry to break its slide and in a contest which I do envision being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Jays go with Steven Matz (5-2, 4.69 ERA), who enters off an outing to forget against the Red Sox, allowing five earned runs and striking out four over six innings in what turned out to be no-decision. Matz hasn't been perfect, but he's been the Jays most trusted starter this year, and note that he's actually been significantly better on the road this season (4-1, 3.39), than at home (1-1, 5.65.) Corey Kluber (4-2, 2.86) has been great this year for the Yankees, but off his first career no-hitter, I absolutely expect immediate regression here. The same thing happend to Joe Musgrove earlier in the season, who also had a no-hitter, but then who got torched in the game immediately afterwards. That may or may not happen to Kluber here, but either way, I do feel that the Yanks' starter is going to take a step back here after posting that historic performance last time out. Combined with the fact that the Jays truly are desperate here to break a six-game slide, then I think the value for sure lies in laying a small price, to get an extra 1.5 runs. So that's my call here, take the Jays on the run-line. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 121 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Wild/Knights. The Knights are on the brink of moving on after moving to 2-1 in this series. The Wild have to get something going on the offensive end after getting shutout in Game 4. The Wild are struggling defensively now as well, as goaltender Cam Talbot has struggled mightily over the last three games. The Knights finished the regular season ranked third in goals per game, and fourth in shots per game. Yes, Vegas was also the No. 1 defense in the league, but a small letdown does seem imminent against a Wild team that it has its back against the wall, and which has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout loss vs. an opponent. The stage is finally set for some offensive fireworks. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -118 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
10* MONEY-LINE PERFECT STORM on the Denver Nuggets. Instead of worrying about a point spread, and because it's almost a "pick-em" anyways, I'm going to play Denver on the "money line" in this one. The backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum got the better of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on their own floor in Game 1, but I believe that Denver has the talent and experience to make the necessary adjustments to even things back up. Portland has already accomplished what it set out to do, and that's earn a difficult "split" over these first two games of the series, as it now has the "ball in its court" so to speak moving forward. Clearly, the last thing Denver can do is drop a second straight game here. And after four straight wins and covers, I do think that the Blazers will finally have a small letdown here. Denver finished the season ranked eighth in scoring with 115.0 PPG. With Portland's win in Game 1, these teams are now tied 2-2 in the season series straight-up, but the Blazers have covered in all four. I don't expect that lop-sided trend to continue here whatsoever, as note that the Nuggets are in fact a sharp 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed 120 or more points in. I believe Jokic will carry his team to a straight up victory here. Good luck...Larry |
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05-24-21 | Padres v. Brewers -104 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Brewers. After winning nine straight, I think the Padres finally have a small letdown here. The Brewers have been waffling for a while now, so they can't afford to take the foot off the gas despite back-to-back convincing victories. It's a great set of situational circumstances working in favor of the home side tonight, and I look for it to make the most of it and post a convincing victory in the opener of this three game set and with a very reasonable line attached to it as well. Blake Snell (1-0, 3.79 ERA), comes in off a no-decision to the Rockies on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings. Snell has been great this year for his new team, but if he's had one "knock" against him, it's been his play on the road where he's 0-0 with a ballooned 6.97 ERA. The home side counters with Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 1.58), who allowed two runs (only one earned) while striking out four over eight innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Royals on Tuesday. It was Woodruff's eighth straight quality start and to go along with his tiny ERA, he also owns a miniscule 0.74 WHIP and monstrous 65/14 K/W. I think the hungrier home side finds a way to deliver, and as I said off the top, I do now believe that the Padres will finally stumble after such a long stretch of elite level play. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Bruins/Capitals. The last two games of this series have gone under the number, with Boston winning both. The Capitals return home with their backs against the wall, in need of a victory. Will that happen? Perhaps, but whether the Capitals can push this series another game or not, I absolutely expect more of a wide-open game, a pace which I see leading to plenty of pucks finding the back of the net. Washington has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight losses. The Capitals defense is crumbling around them, as they've conceded 11 goals over the last three games. Washington will be forced to have its defenseman join the attack today as well, which will leave it more vulnerable than ever on the back end to this opportunistic Bruins' offense. Situationally and also from a trend-based stand-point, this one has over written all over it. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Lakers/Suns. If the Lakers are going to win this series, they're going to grind down the Suns defensively and wear out Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They'll also try and establish their big men throughout. The Lakers come into the playoffs fully healthy. The Suns will also have to double down on the defensive end in this series if they want to be successful. Phoenix has always been known for its scoring, but the big turnaround this season has indeed been on the defensive end, as it's held its opposition to an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%, which ranks tenth overall. LA will look to grind out possessions in an attempt to control the pace and flow and to take the game out of Paul's hands. Defensive intensity tends to pick up in the playoffs (obviously), and these are two of the best in the league on that end of the floor. Game 1 has under written all over it. Good luck...Larry |
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05-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
10* PITCHERS DUEL on the under Tigers/Royals. Considering the recent form of each of these starting pitchers, I think this posted total is definitely a little high. Yes, these teams are coming off back-to-back high-scoring affairs, with Detroit taking the first game in the three-game series by a score of 7-5, and then KC returning the favor with a 7-5 win, but everything points to more of a duel in the finale. The visiting side hands the ball to Casey Mize (3-3, 3.69 ERA), who conceded a single run off three hits to go along with seven strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over the Mariners on Monday. It wa shis second straight win, and as I stated off the top, "recent form" of these starting pitchers is a big reason behind this pick this afternoon. The home side counters with Kris Bubic (0-0, 0.96), who went six shutout innings against the Brewers in his last outing. Over 18.2 innings of work the 23-year old has a 14/9 K/W, and there's no reason not to think he can't carry that momentum over here in this favorable home matchup. Look for these starting pitchers to grab the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-21 | Brewers v. Reds -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
10* LEGEND on the Reds. I had a play on the Reds last night, and they went on to post a convincing 9-4 win over the floundering Brewers. The victory was significant, as it snapped a four-game slide, and it also made up for a brutal 19-4 loss the day before at home against the Giants. Now it's the Brewers who enter on a losing streak (3 in a row and six of their last seven). And this isn't a staring pitching matchup that favors the visiting side today either, meaning I absolutely expect Milwaukee's struggles to continue for at least one more game. The Reds won't be taking anything for granted after such a long period of poor play, instead they'll be more eager than ever to try and string a couple wins together and at the very least, secure the series victory here today. They also have the better in form and more motivated starting pitcher on the hill today. Sonny Gray (0-3, 3.86 ERA), gave up four runs (three earned), off five hits over five innings on Monday in a loss to the hard-hitting Giants in his last outing. It was the only time that he's allowed three or more runs in a start this season though and clearly Gray will be hungry to finally get into the winners circle today. And what better opponent than the volatile Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.50), who gave up four runs off eight hits with three walks while striking out three over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Braves in his last outing (note that the southpaw has been at his worst on the road as well, going 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA.) The stage is set for Cincinnati to build off yesterday's convincing victory. Great price on Gray and the hungry home side. The play is the Reds. Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -106 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Islanders. These teams sport almost identical defensive numbers, as Pittsburgh allows 2.77 GPG, while New York concedes 2.23. Pittsburgh is ranked 14th defensively, while the Isles are ranked second. The Penguins though have the advantage on the offensive end, as they average 3.45 GPG, while the Islanders average 2.7. Down 2-1 in this series though, I like New York to rally here and even up this series. So far Pittsburgh has the upper-hand in this battle, but the Isles have responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more goals in. I say the Sid The Kid and the Penguins finally have a letdown here, as I expect the Isles to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to avoid the 1-3 hole. The play is the Islanders. Good luck...Larry |
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05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Heat. The Heat made it all way to the NBA Finals last year, as they caught fire late in the season and then snowballed that momentum all the way until the end. Miami beat the Bucks in five games in the ECF last year and I believe it'll at the very least, take today's game right down to the wire. Jimmy Butler missed all three regular season games agains the Bucks, but he's back to 100% health, and I think he's a big time "X factor" in this game (and series.) Butler averages 21.5 points, 6.9 boards and 7.1 assists per game. Miami also has three "lockdown" defenders to body up on Bucks' star Giannis Antetokuonmpo in Andre Igoudala, Butler and Bam Adebayo. Milwaukee is a great regular season team, but its big knock is that it can't perform in the playoffs. I'd argue, that Milwaukee's team this year isn't nearly as good as it was last season. The Bucks may go on to exorcise their demons here in this series, but I expect them to come out flat in Game 1. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the Grizzlies. My NBA Game of the Year was on the Warriors in their 113-101 regular season finale victory over these very Grizzlies, but for this final "play in" contest, I'm going with Memphis to exact a little revenge. The Warriors enter off a tight loss to the Lakers, losing straight-up, but covering the spread. The Grizzlies held on for a 100-96 victory over the Spurs, but they were unable to cover the 4.5 point spread. Memphis is healthier right now, and that's going to matter after so many tight and important games. These players are giving their all, and the Grizzlies' depth is going to play a big part here. Yes, Golden State has Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, but they're down James Wiseman, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Damian Lee. Golden State is coming off a crushing last-second loss to LeBron James, and now it faces a revenge-minded Grizzlies team that loves to body up on teams and get physical. Clearly, I believe the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry |
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05-21-21 | Brewers v. Reds +108 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 108 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Reds. Enough is enough for Reds fans! Cincinnati comes to the field today prepared to snap a four-game slide, and to atone for yesterday's poor 19-4 loss here at home to San Francisco. Jeff Hoffman (2-3, 4.67 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget for Cincinnati, allowing five runs (two earned) over four innings vs. the Rockies on Sunday. Over 34.2 innings of work, Hoffman owns a 32-18 K/W. His counterpart today is Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser (3-4, 3.63) who gave up two runs off two hits with five walks in a loss to Atlanta in his last outing. It was his shortest outing of the year, as he threw just 32 of his 65 pitches for strikes. I like Hoffman to bounce back at home here (wns a 2.70 ERA with no decision in two starts vs. Milwaukee), but further regression seems imminent for Houser in my opinion (note he's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts here.) Milwaukee has lost seven of nine on the road, and they now face a Reds team looking to bounce back after getting outscored 33-9 by the Giants. Look for the Reds to rally at home. Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3 | Top | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Wizards. The Wizards came close to pulling off an upset in Boston, but now they'll have to play the Pacers here to see who gets the eighth seed in Eastern Conference. Indiana is coming off a 144-117 win over Charlotte (I had the Pacers in that one), but I think it'll struggle to find the same energy here. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances for a bounce-back performance this year, as it took all three regular-season meetings between the clubs, winning 132-124, 154-141 and 133-132 in OT in Indiana. Indiana got a huge performance from Doug McDermott and Oshae Brissett, with issues to Myles Turner, Jeremy Lamb and Caris LeVert. Malcolm Brogdon played in the victory, but he's questionable here as well. The Wizards are tough on their own floor, and after the sub-par effort in Boston, they'll be out to push the pace from start to finish. They've been great in this spot recently for bettors as well, going 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. the Eastern conference. Washington is healthier and playing on its own floor. Everything points to a comfortable home side cover here in my opinion. Play on the Wizards. Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* PITCHERS DUEL on the Red Sox/Jays under. We've seen some explosive scoring from these two teams this year, but everything points to more of a duel on Thursday in my opinion. Boston pulled away for a 7-3 win here yesterday and the total went over the number by a half-run. Toronto won the series opener 8-0. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for either side as well, as Toronto welcomes Tampa Bay to town tomorrow for a four-game weekend series, and that's followed by back-to-back road series at the Yankees and Indians. Boston hits the interleague portion of its schedule starting on Friday, with a road series in Philadelphia, followd by the Braves and Marlins at home. Regardless though, as I stated off the top, these two starting pitchers are poised for a classic duel in my opinion. The visitors go with Nick Pivetta (5-0, 3.16 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision to the Angels on Friday, allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings. To go along with his solid ERA, Pivetta also sports a sharp 42/22 K/W over 42.2 innings of work. His counterpart is Steven Matz (5-2, 4.29) who comes in off five-scoreless vs. Philly on Friday, allowing four hits to go along with nine strikeouts. Matz now has a great 46/13 K/W over 42 innings. After a couple of shaky starts previous, Matz won't be taking anything for granted after his bounce-back outing. Look for these two capable starting pitchers to steal most of the headlines in Friday's game re-cap summary. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-20-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -107 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Islanders. These teams are evenly matched. The Isles won 4-3 in OT in Game 1, and then Pittsburgh bounced back with a tight 2-1 win in Game 2. The Isles accomplished what they set out to do though, and that was earn a valuable "split" over the first two games. Now they have the advantage moving forward here, and I expect them to make the most of it. Don't think home ice matters? I'd say, guess again! The Penguins are 23-4-1-2 at home this year, but just a mediocre 15-12-1 on the road. The Islanders are only 12-14-3-1 on the road, but 21-4-1-2 at home. That Game 1 OT victory is clearly a big one for the Isles. Now Pittsburgh has to face one of the best home teams in all of the NHL. Statistically, Pittsburgh has the superior offense, but the Islanders are definitely better on the defensive end. The cast of characters, the strengths and weaknesses of each side are well known. The oddsmakers aren't giving the Islanders enough respect in their own building with this line though, and I'm ready to make them pay. The great value play here in Game 3 is on the Islanders. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Warriors/Lakers. If the Warriors are going to win this game, they're going to have to try to somehow break down the Lakers tough perimeter defense and get some open shots from the outside. If the Lakers are going to win this game, they're going to play tough perimeter defense, and use their big men from start to finish while on offense. With the home side's offense being run through the paint, I do indeed expect a more methodical pace here. Golden State has plenty of great young talent in Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins, but they're both in unchartered territory here. The defending champs are back to full strength essentially and I expect them to send an early message to the Warriors, and the rest of the league. Clearly, Curry has to have a monster game for the Warriors to win, but I just can't see that happening against this stout Lakers defense. LA only averages 109.5 PPG, so it's definitely not like the Lakers are blowing out teams on a nightly basis either. LA won the last two games in this series handily and while that may or may not happen here, in my opinion everything points to the under as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-21 | Astros v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the UNDER Astros/A's. While each side has played to a few "overs" of late, I think a classic pitchers duel is in order on Wednesday night. Houston has seen the total soar above the posted number in four straight, including in yesterday's 6-5 series opening loss here yesterday. Oakland has now seen the total go over in three straight. Two capable starting pitchers go head-to-head on Wednesday though and everything points to the under as the correct move. Zack Greinke (3-1, 4.18 ERA), is getting progressively better with each outing so far in 2021, most recently allowing three run and striking out five over seven innings in a victory over the Rangers on Friday. Through 51.2 innings of work the veteran now sports a sharp 40/11 K/W. His counterpart tonight is Frankie Montas (5-2, 4.93), who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run over six innings in a victory over the Twins. There's no reason not to think he can't carry that momentum over here. One last thing I'll point out is that the Astros have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 12 after seeing the total go over in four or more straight games in a row. Look for this one to stay well under. Good luck...Larry |
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05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 157 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
10* PUCK-LINE PERFECT STORM on the Hurricanes. Nashville threw its best shot at Carolina in Game 1 and it still got crushed 5-2. I expect a similar final discrepany in score here as well. Nashville got to this point with its tough defensive play, as it entered the playoffs allowing 2.7 GPG. The Predators only average 2.7 GPG, and I believe they're going to once again struggle to find any momentum here vs. this Canes team which concedes just 2.3 GPG. Carolina is equally adept on the other end of the ice though, averaging 3.1 goals per game. It's also very interesting to note that the Predators are now a poor 3-7 in thier last ten as an underdog, while the Hurricanes are 6-1 in their last seven after scoring four or more goals in their previous outing. Carolina not only wins, it wins BIG. Lay the 1.5 goals for healthy return! Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Rockies/Padres. San Diego won 7-0 yesterday, and the total went over the number by a 0.5 run. Linesmakers don't set Padres lines high very often, and tonight's game is no exception. While San Diego has seen the total go over in four straight, I think tonight's contest will fall below it. The Rockies put up big numbers at home, but Coors Field is a "hitters" park. Over their last two games on the road, they've put up a total of zero runs, losing 2-0 in St. Louis in their previous road contest back on May 9th. Not surprisingly, Colorado is a terrible 2-15 on the road this season. Austin Gomber (2-4, 5.49 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he faced these very Friars in his last start, giving up one run while striking out six over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. The Padres counter with Blake Snell (1-0, 4.19) who gave up two runs over four innings, striking out seven to the Rockies in last week's double-header, taking a no-decision as well. Snell has 49 strikeouts over 34.1 innings of work thus far. I'm expecting these capable starting pitchers to battle into the latter frames and I believe that'll ultimately help in driving this total under the posted number. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Wild/Knights. Two of the best defensive clubs in the league skated to a low-scoring 1-0 extra-periods decision in Game 1, but I believe Game 2 will be much more wide-open and ultimately higher-scoring. It takes a lot of energy to constantly back check and block pucks and after that defensive affair for the ages, I think we'll see a completely different flow to Game 2. Note that Vegas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last eight after getting shutout in its previous contest. Minnesota has seen the total soar over the number in six of its last eight after a shutout victory in which it scored two or less goals in. Look for the offenses to be a step ahead in this one. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-18-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | Top | 117-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* PLAY-IN GAME OF THE YEAR on the Pacers. I don't think that the home-court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this contest. The Hornets enter the playoffs banged up and with zero momentum, as they've lost five in a row. Overall they average 109.5 PPG, while allowing 111.4. Terry Rozier averages 20.4 PPG and 4.2 assists, while LaMelo Ball adds 15.7 points and 5.9 boards. The Pacers have split their last ten games. Overall Indiana averages and concedes 115.3 PPG. Domantas Sabonis will be leaned upon heavily here with injuries to Brogdan and Turner. Charlotte has a bright future, and even making it into the "Play-In" tournament is a huge accomplishment for it. The Hornets though are a terrible 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog. I won't try to convince you that the Pacers are a great team, as that's not the case. But this is a game that I think they can win handily (and note that Indiana is a sharp 5-0 ATS in its last five at home.) Despite the injuries, Indiana is the smart play at home here in my opinion, as I look for Sabonis to lead his team to a comfortable win and cover. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Indiana. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
10* PUCKKLINE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Avalanche. Colorado steamrolled its way into the playoffs, finishing as the President Cup Trophy winner. I don't only expect to see Colorado win this game, but I expect it to win handily. The margin of error is slim for St. Louis. In all honesty, I just can't see where its offense is going to come from. It only averages 2.9 GPG. It concedes 2.9 as well. As I said, clearly St. Louis is living on the edge most nights. Colorado on the other hand averages a whopping 3.5 GPG, while allowing only 2.30. For arguments sake, let's call the goaltending units a "wash" in this series. Colorado still has such huge advantages, that I'd almost consider laying -2.5 goals in this opening game. But we're not doing that. I'm going to play the -1.5 puck line here as I look for the Avs to send an early message to the Blues, and to the rest of the league that they're the team to beat. Lay the 1.5 goals on the Avs. Good luck...Larry |
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05-17-21 | Nationals v. Cubs -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Chicago Cubs. Facing your former team is never an easy thing to do, and I believe that Jon Lester will in fact struggle in this spot. Washington has won three of its last four, but after a 3-0 victory in Arizona just last night, I think the "on again, off again" Nationals are going to stumble in "The Friendly Confines." Chicago has won two of three. The Cubs are just 6-12 on the road, but they're 13-8 at home. The Nationals are only 7-10 on the road. Lester (0-1, 2.25 ERA) is coming off a no-decision to the Phillies on Wednesday, he gave up one run and three walks over six innings. The sample size for this season is still way too small to draw any conclusive conclusions. The home side counters with Adbert Alzolay (1-3, 4.50) who enters off his second straight quality start, giving up three runs over six innings to go along with six strikeouts in an unfortunate setback to the Indians. If we look a little closer at Alzolay, we see that his numbers are in fact fantastic, with a 0.88 WHIP and 36/7 K/W over 32 innings of work. As stated off the top, the stage is set for a collapse by Lester here facing his former team. It's a perfect storm of factors working in favor of Alzolay and the Cubbies. Lay it. Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-21 | Lightning -120 v. Panthers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Lightning. Florida won five of the eight regular season games. The Lightning are back to defend their title. 16 different players have 12 or more points for the Bolts, led by Brayden Point with 48 points. Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 31-10-1 record with a 2.21 GAA. Offense and defense were a strength of Florida's as well. However, the Panthers struggled down the stretch of the season, conceding three or more goals in seven out of their last nine games. Experience counts at this time of year. Look for Tampa to send an early message with a convincing victory. Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -127 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Padres (10*). My 37-Club Play winner on Saturday was the Padres, and they went on to beat the visiting Cardinals by a score of 13-3. The Padres are once again rolling, as they've won five of their last six. I say they complete the sweep here. The Card go with Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA), who has only given up four earned runs over 20 innings of work. Kim has been great, but clearly the book is still out and the sample size just too small. Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81), has been exceptional in whatever role the Padres have needed himin this season. With a strong bullpen to support, I like Weathers at home in this matchup. Also note that SD is interestingly 7-3 in its last ten after scoring 12 or more runs in a victory in its last outing. All things considered, a great price on this one. I'm on the Padres (again!) Good luck...Larry |
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05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Warriors. To say this is a "big" game would be an understatement. Both teams come into this contes on fire as well. Memphis enters having won five straight, while Golden State has also won five in a row. The winner of this contest will secure eighth spot in the Western Conference playoff race, and in my opinion, home court advantage simply can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. The Warriors play with the added incentive of revenge as well after losing the most recent matchup between the clubs 111-103 back on March 20th. Overall Memphis averages 113.5 PPG, while allowing 112.3. Golden State averages 113.7 PPG, while allowing 112.8 as well. This is a pressure packed situation, and who better to deliver than Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. have also emerged as fantastic talents. Listen, the Grizz are filled with great talent as well, and admittedly Jonas Valanciunas will be a matchup issue, but as stated above, I can't see the visiting side slowing down this veteran group on their own floor. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS their last five at home and 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded 110 or more points in. Lay the points, expect a decisive victory. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -131 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
10* 37-CLUB on the Padres. Off last night's 5-4 win, I look for the home side to carry that momentum over into this one, but I believe it'll be a much "easier ride" this evening. St. Louis sends Adam Wainwright (2-3, 3.80 ERA) to the hill to face the Padres Chris Paddack (1-3, 4.78). I love going against pitchers that are coming off a big game in their previous outing, and that's the case here with Wainwright, who gave up three hits over 8.1 shutout innings on Sunday vs. the pathetic Rockies. Note though, while Wainwright is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA at home, he's a poor 0-1 with a ballooned 6.85 ERA on the road. After his big win last time out, regression is imminent here for the 15 year veteran in my opinion. Paddack is coming off a no-decision vs. the Giants on Sunday, going three scoreless, while striking out four. Paddack has uncharacteristically struggled at home this season (7.00 ERA), while domianted on the road (3.68), but we can expect these trends to start correcting here. Finally, note that the Cards are just 2-6 in their last eight in trying to revenge a one-run road loss vs. an opponent. When considering all of the above factors, I think we're getting a fantastic price on the Padres here. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Heat v. Bucks | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Bucks. I like the Bucks to take care of business on their home court here. THe Heat have won seven of eight, but they're primed for a letdown in my estimation in this difficult road venue. Overall Miami averages 107.9 PPG, while allowing 107.9 as well. The Bucks are equally as hot, and they're going to keep the foot on the gas here at home. Milwaukee has won seven of eight, and it averages 120.2 PPG, while conceding 114.3. Milwaukee wins at home by an average of 7.2 points. After five straight losses against-the-spread, and playing with revenge after a 119-108 loss to the Heat on December 30th, I look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry |
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05-15-21 | Bruins -125 v. Capitals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10* NHL LAS VEGAS INSIDER (FIRST PLAY OF YEAR!) Larry didn't play the NHL regular season, but he's ready to get "back on the ice" now that the Playoffs are here, as after 35 years as one of the top professional handicappers, Ness is widely regarded as a "Playoff Guru!" Don't dare miss this exciting play! 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Bruins. As you may have read in the promo for this pick, I haven't actually played any NHL this season, but now that the playoffs are here, I'm ready to get into the game! For this opening game of this series and the playoffs, I believe that "recent form," especially on the defensive end, will prove to be the difference maker. Both teams can score, and both can defend. Washington averages 3.36 GPG, and it concedes 2.88, while Boston averages 2.93 GPG, while allowing 2.39. But as I said, for me this one is simple. Timing and chemistry are key entering the playoffs, and Boston is playing the better hockey right now. Note that Washington has scored four or more goals in four of its last nine games, but it's also conceded three goals or more in five of its last nine. Boston has scored three or more goals in eight of its last nine, while allowing two goals or less in eight of its last ten. Look for the Bruins to carry over their end of season surge into this opening series contest. The play is Boston. Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-21 | Kings v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Grizzlies. The Kings have won six of their past eight games, but off a 116-110 road loss here just last night vs. the Grizzlies, I expect an even bigger final discrepancy in the score in tonight's game for the home side. Justin James exploded for 31 points for the Kings, and I am definitely not expecting "lighting to strike twice." The Grizzlies though have been steamrolling teams to end the season, healthier than they've been all year, they come into this one having won five of their last six games. Dillon Brooks had 30 points last night, while Jonas Valanciunas had 24. This one means a lot more for Memphis, as it continues to jockey for playoff positioning. Scheduling is also working in its favor in the second game of the back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it. I expect the Grizzlies to STUN the books here, and to win handily by double-digits. Good luck...Larry |
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05-14-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -143 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Jays. I like the Jays "at home" in this one. I think Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86 ERA) is the correct call here over Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18). Velasquez enters off a strong start, going 5.1 innings and allowing one run off two hits in what turned out to be a no-decision to the Braves last Saturday. Velasquez is in trouble of losing his spot in the rotation if he didn't pick up his performance, and while he's done that over his last two outings, I think it's going to be asking too much from this volatile starter to produce three straight quality outings. Matz comes in off his fifth win of the year last Saturday, conceding three runs off eight hits while striking out four over five innings over the hard-hitting Astros on Saturday. He also didn't walk anyone in the victory for the first time this season. Philadelphia is better at home than on the road and everything points to that trend continuing here in the opener of this interleague matchup. It's a PERFECT STORM of factors working in favor of the Jays here. Good luck...Larry |
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05-13-21 | Clippers v. Hornets +8.5 | Top | 113-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* ODDSMAKER ERROR on the Hornets. The Clippers have split their last eight games, but I think they get caught looking past their opponent today. Outright win? Probably not, but I absolutely expect this one to be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. LA averages 114 PPG, while allowing 107.8. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 25 points and 6.5 boards for the Clippers. The Hornets are fighting, and they'll be hungry here after losing six of their last nine. Charlotte averages 109.7 PPG, while allowing 111.3. Terry Rozeir leads the nightly charge with 20.6 points and 4.2 assists per contest. LA has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. The Hornets are healthier than they've been in a long time and this is an important game to them. Look for LA to come in complacent and for the home side to be risking life and limb tonight. As I said above, probably no big outright upset victory, but I definitely expect a "nail-biter" until the end. Grab the points, the play is Charlotte. Good luck...Larry |
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05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* NBA PERFECT STORM on the Hawks. The Hawks just beat Washington 125-124. Russell Westbrook broke Oscar Robertson's triple-double record and I believe that without Bradley Beal in the line-up, that the visiting side will now struggle to match pace with the Hawks. Both teams are playing competitively until the end, but with back-to-back home games vs. Cleveland and Charlotte respectively, this is not only a letdown spot for the Wizards, but also a look-ahead position as well. The Hawks are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 at home. Also note that Atlanta has won its last fie games by an average of 9.8 points, despite the one point victory last time out. Nate McMillan has brought a winning attitude to his new team and I expect that drive to continue here. Lay the points, the play is Atlanta. Good luck, Larry |
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05-12-21 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Cubs/Indians. Cleveland held on for a tight 3-2 win over the Cubs. After a slow start the Tribe come in red hot, as they've won eight of their last ten, including two in a row. Interestingly, they've been trading Overs and Unders over their last five games and off the lower-scoring victory yesterday, everything points to this pattern continuing today. The Cubs will be looking to get back on track here, as they've now lost back-to-back games after a five-game win streak. But the bottom line is on this total, I don't at all trust either of these starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Zach Davies (2-2, 6.30 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Pirates on Friday. He wasn't even able to get a decision for his effort. While he's been better of late, note that he's still a devastating 0-1 with a 12.86 ERA on the road this season. Sam Hentges (1-0, 5.00) last start was postponed. So far he's give up five runs off 11 hits over two outings. Suffice it to say, I expect Hentges to "get the hook" early today. As stated off the top, starting pitching is a major issue for both teams today. Expect that to translate into offensive production. The play is the over. Good luck, Larry |
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05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls +6 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10* GAME OF WEEK on Bulls. The Brooklyn Nets are 44-24, while the Chicago Bulls are 29-39. The Nets are already preparing for the playoffs, as they enter having lost four of their last five. Overall they average 118.6 PPG, while allowing 114.6. Kevin Durant averages 28.2 PPG with 5.2 assists. The Bulls have split their last ten games, but they enter playing their best basketball of the season. They've won three in a row, beating Charlotte 120-99, Boston 121-99 and at Detroit most recently by a score of 108-96. Chicago already beat Brooklyn 115-107 in early April and I think it'll take the Nets down to the wire again here. Brooklyn is off the satisfying 125-119 road win at Denver (which was playing the second game of a back-to-back), and with a home game tomorrow night vs. the Spurs, this not only sets up as a letdown, but also a look-ahead in my opinion. Now throw in the fact that Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS wins/covers in a row, then this one is all wrapped up for me. The outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. The play is the Bulls. Good luck, Larry |
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05-11-21 | Angels v. Astros -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH. I definitely like Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.10 ERA) and the Mets in this matchup. John Means (4-0, 1.37) is fresh off a complete-game no-hitter, and I love going against pitchers off such a huge accomplishment. He lost his chance for the perfect game in the third-inning. Hard to say anything negative about Means, I simply don't feel his absurd numbers are realistic or sustainable. Regression is imminent in my opinion. Stroman won't be lacking for motivation. He's also typically a better home pitcher than on the road (although that's not the case this year, with a respectable 3.60 ERA at home, and a "lights out" 1.50 ERA on the road.) Regardless, Stroman enters with a sharp 29:7 K:BB over six starts this season. Stroman also has the advantage of having a strong bullpen. Means doesn't. While the Mets have struggled against left-handers somewhat, I look for them to ride their current "ace" to a victory here in front of the home town crowd, as I do believe Means is in line for a big letdown. The play is New York. Good luck, Larry |
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05-10-21 | Bucks v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 125-146 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Spurs. After five straight straight-up victories, including a tight 135-134 victory over Washington, before a 141-133 win over Houston two nights ago, the Bucks hit the road to play San Antonio, but they then return home to face the putrid Magic tomorrow night. This is Milwaukee's final non-conference game, with contests at Indiana, at home to Mimai and finishing at Chicago all up next. The Spurs play with revenge after a 120-113 loss to the Bucks on March 20th. I say the Spurs come to play hard tonight, and I expect Milwaukee to get caught looking ahead. Finally, note that San Antonio is in fact 7-1 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 120 or more points in. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is San Antonio. Good luck, Larry |
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05-10-21 | Reds -148 v. Pirates | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Reds. Tyler Mahle (1-1, 3.23 ERA), takes the hill for Cincinnati in the opener of this series, while Pittsburgh counters with the volatile Mitch Keller (2-3, 6.29). Keller actually comes in off a gem vs. the Padres in his last outing, going 5.2 scoreless. While Keller is 1-1 with a 3.41 ERA on the road, he's 1-2 with a 10.59 ERA at home. Mahle had his last start postponed due to rain. He gave up six runs over six innings, while striking out six in a no-decision to the Cubs in is last outing. Overall he's been extremely solid, especially on the road where he has a tiny 1.93 ERA. The Bucs broke a lengthy slide yesterday, but they're still just 1-8 in their last nine vs. a right-handed starter. Cincinnati is 14-6 in its last 20 vs. the NL Central. I'm laying the chalk here, but expecting a blowout. The play is the Reds. Good luck, Larry |
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05-09-21 | Phillies -105 v. Braves | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My MLB 9* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Phi Phillies at 7:08 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2021 season having NOT made the postseason in the previous NINE years. The Phillies won their first four games of the 2021 season but were just 13-15 as the current week dawned this past Monday. The Phillies swept a four-game home series with the Brewers (Mon-Thu) and then crushed the Braves 12-2 Friday night in Atlanta. However, the Braves rallied for FOUR runs in the 12th inning for a stunning 8-7 win last night. Atlanta opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH consecutive NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row) but the Braves opened the season 0-4. They climbed back to .500 at 12-12 but face the Phillies in the final game of this series Sunday night just 16-17. A pair of hot pitchers will be on the mound Sunday night on ESPN, as Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.89 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa (3-1, 2.36 ERA). Nola has made seven starts this season with Philly going 5-2. He has an excellent 0.98 WHIP and .218 BAA to go along with his 2.89 ERA. He's familiar with the Braves, having made 21 starts against them (he's 11-6 with a 3.02 ERA / team is 13-8). Ynoa began the current season with just 11 major league appearances (five starts) and a 7.30 ERA. However, he's been a MUCH different pitcher in 2021. He's made seven appearances (six starts), going 3-1 (team is 4-2) with 2.36 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .187 BAA. Ynoa's won his last three starts (0.98 ERA) but I don't think he's the equal of Nola, at least not yet. The Braves pulled off a 'miracle' last night and I don't expect a repeat. Phillies take the "rubber match" of the series, as they battle the Mets for first place in the NL East, which looks similar to the NFL's NFC East in 2020. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-21 | Rockies v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* NL Total of the Month is on Col/STL Over at 2:15 ET. The Colorado Rockies and the St Louis Cardinals complete a three-game series Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. The Cards go for a three-game sweep, after winning 5-0 and 9-8. The Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record. It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. St Louis was just 8-10 through April 21 but a 12-4 run has them atop the NL Central at 20-14. The Rockies were just 26-34 in 2020, after a 71-91 mark in 2019. The current season has NOT gone well, as the Rockies are currently 12-21 (worst record in the NL) and the team's 2-13 road mark is the worst in all of MLB. Taking the mound in the series finale will be Colorado's German Marquez (1-3, 6.21 ERA) and for St Louis it will be veteran Adam Wainwright (1-3, 4.72 ERA). Marquez is looking to bounce back from a disastrous outing this past Tuesday against San Francisco when he allowed EIGHT runs on six hits and two walks while retiring just two batters in a 12-4 loss to the Giants. Wainwright is coming off of his second-worst outing of the year, allowing five runs on seven hits, three walks and a hit batter in 5.2 innings (note: he was able to get a win in the Cards' 6-5 win!). Wainwright is 10-1 with a 1.56 ERA in 15 career outings against the Rockies, including 11 starts (team is 9-2). However, Wainwright is no longer that pitcher. The over/under number is modest (7 1/2) and note the following. Marquez has made three daytime starts in 2021, lasting just 10.1 innings while allowing 18 hits, 11 walks and 12 ERs. That gives him a 10.45 ERA, with opponents batting .409 against him. Now to Wainwright. He's also made three daytime starts and has lasted only 12.2 innings, 19 hits and 10Ers. His ERA is 7.11 and opponents have batted .333 against him. This one is Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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05-09-21 | Heat +2 v. Celtics | Top | 130-124 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 1:05 ET. The Miami Heat surprised most (all?) by reaching the NBA Finals last season, before falling to the Lakers. The Heat took down the East's No. 1 seed Milwaukee in the second round and Boston (No. 3 seed) in the Eastern Conference Finals. The current season has been a challenge for both the Heat and Celtics, as Miami is currently 36-31 (No. 6 seed) and Boston is 35-32 (No. 7). Boston will play host to Miami on Sunday afternoon (ESPN) and then take on the Heat again Tuesday night (TNT), also in TD Garden. BOTH teams desperately want to avoid the 7-10 "Play-In" tournament and if either team is able to sweep this two-game set, that team would likely avoid the 'play-in." The Heat and Celtics have met only once so far this season, back on Jan 6 in Miami when Boston won 107-105. For the Celtics, splitting this two-game series would give them the tiebreaker advantage (could be a difference-maker). Miami is coming off a 121-112 home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, as Jimmy Butler (21.6-7.0-7.2) scored 25 points but it was Tyler Herro (15.1-4.8-3.4) who provided the biggest spark with a game-high 27 points off the bench. Herro had not played since April 23 because of a foot injury. Miami's trade-deadline acquisition Victor Oladipo remains inactive due to right knee soreness. He has played only four games with his new team and hasn't suited up since April 8! Starting along with Butler is forward Ariza (9.2 & 4.7 in 26 games with Miami) and center Adebayo (18.9-9.0-5.4). in the backcourt, it's Nunn (14.3) and Robinson (13.0) with veteran PG Dragic (13.3 & 4.4 APG) coming off the bench. While the Heat have won EIGHT of 11, the Celtics have lost six of their last 10 after a season-high six-game winning streak (April 7-17). Despite Kemba Walker's (18.9-3.9-4.9) season-high 33 points Friday at Chicago, the Celtics lost 121-99 to the Bulls. Jayson Tatum (26.3-7.3-4.4) and Jaylen Brown (24.7-6.0-3.4) have led the way for Boston all season but Tatum was 3-of-15 from the floor vs the Bulls (0 of 7 on three-pointers) to finish with NINE points! As for Brown, he missed his second straight game against Chicago after he sprained his right ankle late in last Sunday's loss to Portland. Danny Ainge has said that Brown will "probably" return on Sunday against Miami." Miami is playing MUCH better than Boston right now and a Sunday win would be HUGE, as Atlanta (No. 5 seed) is just a half-game ahead of them and the New York (No. 4 seed) is juts ONE game ahead of them a STRING finished could allow the Heat to grab the No. 4 seed, giving them the homecourt edge in the first round. Let's NOT get ahead of ourselves, play the Heat of Sunday. Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-21 | Nets v. Nuggets +4 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Ultimate Underdog of the Month is on the Den Nuggets at 10:10 ET. When the Brooklyn Nets acquired James Harden from Houston in mid-January, the NBA's latest "Super team" team featured Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Harden. However, while KD is averaging 28.0-6.9-5.1, he has missed 37 games. Kyrie checks in averaging 27.4-4.9-6.3 but has missed 17 games. As for Harden, he has contributed 25.4-8.7-11.0 in his 34 games with the Nets but he last played April 5. Injuries to these three All Stars have contributed to the uneven play of Brooklyn and the Nets head to Denver for a game with the Nuggets Saturday night on a FIVE-game losing streak. The slide has seen the Nets slip to 43-24 and into a tie with the Bucks. BOTH teams are three games back of the 76ers, who own the East's top record at 46-21. All teams have just FIVE games remaining, so the Nets and Bucks will battle for the No. 2 seed. The Nuggets are coming off a 127-120 loss at Utah on Friday night and won't be fully healthy for the rest of the year. That said, Denver continues to play through those injuries. The Nuggets are 10-3 since losing PG Jamal Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8) to a torn ACL back on April 12. Denver is also missing Monte Morris (hamstring), Will Barton (hamstring) and P.J. Dozier (adductor strain). Morris (10.3 & 3.2 APG) is closest to returning, followed by Barton (12.7-4.0-3.2), but Dozier (7.7) could miss the rest of the season. Denver is led by MVP candidate Nikola Jokic (26.4-10.9-8.5) plus SF Porter (19.1 & 7.5) is having a career season and the acquisition of Aaron Gordon (10.0 & 4.9) from Orlando has worked great. He's not scoring as much as he did with the Magic but he's been a "great fit," with Denver going 17-5 in his 22 games. 30-year-old rookie PG Facundo Campazzo has averaged 9.2 & 6.0 APG in the 13 games without Murray. Tough spot for Denver coming from Salt Lake City with no rest but the Nuggets will be playing their FINAL home game of the regular season, as they'll play their final four games on the road. Denver is just ONE game behind the Clippers for the West's No. 3 seed and should bring their "A-game" here vs a slumping Brooklyn team that beat them 122-116 back on Jan 12. Why is Denver an underdog? Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-21 | White Sox -156 v. Royals | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 8* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET. The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 in 2020, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons by going 35-25. The 2021 version is improved from last season and expectations entering the current season were high. The KC Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost Game 7 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but entered 2021 off five straight non-winning seasons. KC lost 194 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule).KC lost 104 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule).Not much was expected of the Royals in 2020. The White Sox and Royals are playing a three-game series this weekend in Kansas City and Chicago won Friday's game 3-0. Combined with the Cleveland Indians' loss to the Cincinnati Reds, the White Sox moved into first place in the American League Central at 17-13. As for the Royals, after an 11-3 win on May 1, they were 16-9 and sat atop the AL Central. However, the Royals take the field Saturday having lost SIX in a row. The White Sox will send veteran Lance Lynn (2-1, 1.82 ERA) to the mound on Saturday, after spending 15 days on the IL. KC counters with left-hander Daniel Lynch (0-0, 5.79 ERA). Lynch is making just his second career. He took the mound this past Monday and lasted 4.1 innings in an 8-6 loss to Cleveland. He did not get a decision, allowing four hits, four walks and three ERs. The 33-year-old Lynn was a workhorse last season for Texas, leading the majors in starts (13) and innings pitched (84). Many will remember him as an integral part of a St Louis rotation when he won 71 games over a five-year stretch from 2012-17 (he missed all of 2016 with an injury). Lynn may be just 2-2 in his four starts this season for Chicago but he owns a 1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and opponents have batted just .215 against him. In 10 career starts against KC, he's 5-2 with a 3.73 ERA (his teams are 8-2). Lynn vs Lynch is a mismatch plus the fact that Lynch is a lefty clinches the paly. Chicago was 14-0 against left-handed starters in 2020 (averaging 7.1 RPG) and has continued that success in 2021, going 5-1 while averaging 7.8 RPG. That's 19-1 or a 95% winning rate. Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-21 | Reds v. Indians -110 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* IL Game of the Year is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away by Atlanta when the Reds were held scoreless over two games (22 innings). These two Ohio rivals met back in Cincinnati (Apr 16-18) for a three-game series with the Reds taking two of the three. That came as somewhat of a surprise, as the Reds had totaled just 27 runs, hit .196 as a team and struck out 121 times while losing 10 of their last 12 games with the Indians (since July 2018). The teams opened a three-game series in Cleveland last night and Wade Miley pitched the 17th no-hitter in Cincinnati Reds' history, as Cincy's 3-0 win got them to .500 on the season (15-15), while the Indians fell to 17-14. Luis Castillo (1-3, 6.07 ERA) will take the mound in Game 2 of the series and the team's Opening Day starter has quite an act to follow. The Reds' pitching staff has thrown back-to-back shutouts, having won 1-0 in 10 innings on Thursday at home over the White Sox. The Cleveland Indians will counter with Aaron Civale (4-0, 3.20 ERA). Castillo was BRUTAL in the team's Opening Day loss, lasting just 3.1 innings while allowing 10 runs (eight earned). He rebounded in his next start (seven scoreless innings in an 11-4 home win over Pittsburgh) but in four starts since, he's 0-2 (team is 0-4) with a 5.59 ERA. As for Civale, he's 4-0 in six starts (Cleveland is 5-1) and in just this third season, is looking for a career-high FIFTH win. Civale totaled just SEVEN wins over 22 career starts spanning the 2019 and 2020 seasons. This sets up as a "great spot" for the Indians. Cleveland had won FIVE in a row and nine of 11 before getting no-hit by Miley. Cleveland had totaled 29 runs during its five-game winning streak (5.8 RPG) and the Cleveland bats have given Civale a run-support average of SEVEN in his first six starts. Good luck...Larry |
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05-08-21 | Nationals v. Yankees -116 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the NY Yankees at 1:05 ET. The Washington Nationals followed the franchise's first-ever World Series win in 2019 with a 26-34 record in 2020, finishing in last-place in the NL East. The Nats are again in last-place in the NL East at 13-15 but the good news is the division is MLB's weakest. No team had a winning record to open the current week and the Nats are just 2 1/2-games out of first place. The Phillies have won FIVE in a row to take over the top spot at 18-15. The NY Yankees made the postseason for the fourth straight time in 2020 but ONLY because of the expanded playoff field. They swept the Indians in the wild card round (2-0) but lost to the Rays in a deciding Game 5 in the ALDS. The Yankees are currently 16-16, fourth of five AL East teams. Washington won the opener of this three-game series 11-4 on Friday, sparked by six-run eighth inning (included three errors by New York and a three-run HR by the Nats' Josh Harrison. Saturday's pitching matchup will feature three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer (2-2, 2.54 ERA) up against two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber (2-2, 3.03 ERA), Scherzer won Cy Young's 2013, 2016 and 2017 but didn't get his first win of 2021 until his fourth start, He beat the Cards 1-0 on April 21 (6 IP / 9-1 KW ratio) but then gave up seven runs (five earned) in a 9-5 loss at Toronto. However, this past Sunday, he threw his 12th career complete game, allowing a run on five hits in a 3-1 home win over the Miami Marlins (9-0 KW ratio). Kluber won 18 games three times and 20 games once, in a five-year stretch between 2014-18 for Cleveland. He won two Cy Young awards in that span, in 2014 and 2018 (20-7). However, he fractured his right arm after being hit by a line drive during a game against the Miami Marlins on May 1, 2019 and his season ended after just seven starts. Cleveland traded Kluber to the Texas Rangers on July 26, 2020, Kluber made his Rangers debut but lasted just 1 inning after experiencing shoulder tightness. New York signed Kluber to a one-year $11 million contract on January 27, 2021. Kluber got off to a slow start to 2021 (6.10 ERA in his first three starts), but he has improved upon his previous performances in each of his last three outings, lowering his ERA more than three runs in the process. He's thrown 19.1 innings in his last three outings, allowing just three ERs (1.40 ERA). He's earned wins in his last two starts, including allowing two hits over eight scoreless innings to help the Yankees to a 2-0 victory over the Detroit Tigers this past Sunday. The Yankees conclude a nine-game homestand this weekend and after opening with FIVE straight wins, have lost their last two. The team's bullpen and defense fell apart Friday but with "no rest for the weary" (early start on Saturday), I'll back them here against the Nats. Washington is coming off an 11-run outburst but still ranks just 27th in scoring (3.71 RPG). Good luck...Larry |
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05-07-21 | Padres v. Giants +132 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 132 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 37-Club Play is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET. The San Diego Padres ended a 13-year postseason drought in 2020 by going 37-23. The Padres won their wild card series but got swept 3-0 in the NLDS by the Dodgers As for the Giants, they made a run at the expanded playoffs in 2020 but fell short at 29-31. The Padres have really improved their roster the last couple of years and almost all felt that they would challenge the Dodgers for the 2021 West title (LA has won EIGHT straight division titles). As for the Giants, not much was expected. However, just a little over 30 games into the 2021 season, the 18-13 Giants sit atop the NL West with the 18-14 Padres just a half-game back. BOTH teams have moved past the Dodgers, who have lost 13 of 17 after a 13-2 starts to find themselves at 17-15. The Padres and Giants have split their first six meetings of 2021, with ALL games being played in San Diego. The first contest of this three-game series from Oracle Park is Friday, featuring Blake Snell (1-0, 3.51 ERA) of the Padres and Anthony DeSclafani (2-1, 2.00 ERA) of the Giants. Snell was traded Snell to the San Diego Padres last December. after years with Tampa Bay. He won the Cy Young back in 2018 but most knew he was "done with the Rays" after he was pulled by manager Kevin Cash in the 6th inning after pitching a shutout with two hits and nine strikeouts. in Game 6 with the Rays leading 1–0 with one out. The Dodgers then scored two runs in that inning and would go on to win the game 3–1 and the World Series. Snell makes his seventh start of the season (team is 3-3), after picking up his first win of the season last Saturday at home over the Giants in San Diego. He held the Giants to two runs (one earned) on five hits and three walks with six strikeouts in five innings. DeSclafani suffered his only loss of the current season in that game, giving up three runs on three hits and two walks with three strikeouts in six innings. DeSclafani began his career with Miami in 2014 but spent the last five season with Cincy. He had a decent 2019 season (9-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 31 starts) but the 2020 season was a 'disaster' (7.2 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in nine appearances, including seven starts). The Giants signed DeSclafani to a one-year contract worth $6 million on December 16, 2020, He's delivered "big time" so far, with a 2.00 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .189 BAA. The team is just 3-3 in his starts but DON'T blame DeSclafani. DeSclafani has made just TWO home starts this season and has pitched 15 scoreless innings, allowing only nine hits with a 17-2 KW ratio. He's made six career starts vs San Diego, posting a 2.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP (teams are 4-2). in this quick "re-hook" from Saturday, DeSclafani and the Giants are the play, especially as a home dog! Good luck...Larry |
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05-07-21 | Nuggets v. Jazz -4 | Top | 120-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Western Conference Showdown (Den/Utah) is on the Ut Jazz at 9:10 ET. The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz meet tonight in Salt Lake City and both teams have continued to play VERY well despite key injuries. The Jazz won at Denver on Jan 17 (109-105) but the Nuggets won the rematch 128-117 on Jan 31 (again in Denver). The "rubber match" of the season series goes tonight in Utah, which is 48-18, just one game up on the 47-19 Suns for the West's No. 1 seed. Denver comes in at 44-22, just a half-game back of the 45-22 Clippers (No. 3 seed). The West's top-four teams have separated themselves from the rest of the conference. Denver PG Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8) went down back on April 12 but the Nuggets have won 10 of 12 games since, thanks mainly to MVP candidate Nikola Jokic (26.4-10.9-8.4). Denver's injury woes run deep, with PG Monte Morris and swingman Will Barton out with strained hamstrings plus P.J. Dozier (7.7) suffered an adductor strain Monday night and will "be out for a while. However, 30-year-old rookie PG Facundo Campazzo had 16 points, nine rebounds and five steals against New York in Wednesday's win. He has averaged 9.5 & 5.7 APG in the 12 games without Murray plus recently signed guard Austin Rivers scored 25 points in the win over the Knicks. SF Porter (18.8 & 7.5) is having a career season plus the acquisition of Aaron Gordon (10.0 & 4.8) from Orlando has worked great. He's not scoring as much as he did with the Magic but he's been a "great fit," with Denver going 17-4 in his 21 games. Utah owns an outstanding guard duo in Mitchell (26.4-4.4-5.2) and Conley (16.4 & 6.0 APG) but Mitchell has missed the last 10 games with a right ankle sprain and could miss his 11th in this one. Conley has missed five straight games with a hamstring injury. However, SF Bogdanovich (16.3) had led Utah in scoring in four straight games, before guard Clarkson (17.5) led the way with 30 points in Utah's Wednesday win over the Spurs. The Jazz are 4-1 in the stretch, with Bogdanovich averaging 25.8 PPG. Center Gobert (14.4 & 13.3) will battle Jokic in the middle plus Ingles (12.3-3.6-4.6) and O'Neale (6.9 & 7.0) have been regular starters and QUALITY players all season. Injuries galore in this one but don't forget, the Jazz opened the season 0-2 at home and enter this game 29-2 at home since, despite their recent injuries. Let's hope for a 'Donovan Mitchell sighting.' "The Price is Right" and I'm on Utah. Good luck...Larry |
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05-07-21 | Wolves v. Heat -6 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mia Heat at 8:10 ET. The Miami Heat shocked pretty much all with their run to the NBA Finals last season but the team's "encore performance" has been a struggle. Miami is 35-31 and tied with Boston for the 6th-best record in the East, although the Celtics own the No. 6 seed due to a tiebreaker. Time is running out (six games left) and both the Celtics and Heat want to avoid the 'Play-In" tournament plus both still have hopes of moving up, as they are both just ONE game back of the Hawks (No. 5 seed) and TWO back of the Knicks (No. 4 seed). Miami hosts the Timberwolves Friday night, who check in the 3rd-worst record in the NBA (20-46) and its second-worst road record (8-25). Minnesota put together their longest winning streak of the season, a four-game run from April 24-29, before losing games to the New Orleans Pelicans and the Memphis Grizzlies by four points each the last two times out. Rookie Anthony Edwards matched a career-high with 42 points on 17-of-22 shooting overall and 8 of 9 from three-point range in the loss to Memphis. He hasn't missed a game, averaging 18.9 & 4.7 on the season, including 23.1 points over his past 10 games. Missing games has been an issue for Minnesota's other three key players. Center Towns (24.8-10.7-4.6) has missed 22 games, and PG Russell (19.1 & 5.7 APG) has missed 30 games. Both are available now but the team's second-leading scorer (Beasley at 19.6 PPG), has been out with a hamstring since April 2. Miami's dealing with some injury issues as well, as Victor Oladipo (right knee) has missed 15 consecutive games and shooting guard Tyler Herro (14.9-4.9-3.4) has missed SIX in a row. The current starting-five has looked good. Butler (21.3-7.0-7.2) and Ariza (9.3 & 4.6 in his 25 games with the Heat) start up front with center Adebayo (18.9-9.1-5.4). Nunn (14.3) and Robinson (13.1) are the starting guards, with veteran Dragic (13.1 & 4.5 APG) coming off the bench. The Heat just lost to Dallas (Tuesday), playing without Jimmy Butler due to flu-like symptoms unrelated to COVID-19. There is a good chance he'll play here plus Herro is listed as day-to-day. The Heat can't possibly NOT remember losing to the T-wolves back on April 16. Either way, lay the points with the Heat. Good luck...Larry |
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05-06-21 | Braves v. Nationals -104 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 4:05 ET. Atlanta opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH consecutive NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row) but the Braves opened the season 0-4. They climbed back to .500 at 12-12 but entered this week's three-game series in Washington against the Nationals on a four-game losing streak. Washington followed the franchise's first-ever World Series win in 2019 with a 26-34 record in 2020, finishing in last-place in the NL East. The Nats lost their first four games to COVID and then opened 1-5 once they finally got on the field. However, in contrast to the Braves, Washington welcomed Atlanta to Nationals Park on a four-game winning streak that evened its record at 12-12. However, the Braves have won the first two contests (6-1 and 5-3). Both teams play in the NL East, where only the Phillies own a winning record (just barely, at 16-15). The pitching matchup features a battle of lefties, as the Braves will send Drew Smyly (0-2, 8.05 ERA), while the Nats turn to veteran Jon Lester (0-0, 0.00 ERA). Smyly is no more than a journeyman and has given up five ERs in each of his last three starts. The Braves are 0-4 in his four starts in 2021 (8.05 ERA and 1.53 WHIP). Lester's season was delayed as part of the Nationals' COVID-19 outbreak but tossed five scoreless innings on five hits in a no-decision against the Marlins this past Friday. Unlike Smyly, Lester is FAR from a journeyman. He's made 424 career starts, posting a 193-111 career record with a 3.59 ERA. Lester is a three-time World Series champion (2007, 2013 and 2016) and was the MVP of the NLCS in 2016. In 11 career starts vs the Braves, his teams have gone 8-3 (he's 7-2 with a 2.30 ERA). I'll back the Nats to avoid the dreaded home sweep! Good luck...Larry |