Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-28-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 48 m | Show |
7* NFC Game of the Year on Eagles -1
The Key: Since Andy Reid was made head man of the Philadelphia Eagles, there's one thing we've been able to count on - his teams being ready to go following a bye week. In fact, the Eagles are 13-0 all-time under Reid in games immediately following a bye week. It is also worth noting that the Eagles are 6-0 SU and ATS all-time under Reid in home games against the Atlanta Falcons. They have won these 6 by an average of 15.5 points. The Eagles' offensive and defensive numbers are superior as they rank 7th and 11th in the league in total offense and defense, respectively. The Falcons rank 13th and 22nd, respectively in total offense and defense. Expect the Eagles to hand Atlanta its first loss of the season. |
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10-28-12 | Miami Dolphins +3 v. NY Jets | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 67 h 47 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Dolphins +3
The Key: The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games. Look for them to continue to make money for their backers as they go up against a New York defense that hasn't been able to stop the run to save its life. The Jets are giving up an average of 147 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry, and these numbers increase to 162 and 5.3 at home. These numbers weigh in our favor as the Dolphins are 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry - over the last 2 seasons. Take the points. |
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10-27-12 | Oregon State v. Washington +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 7 m | Show | |
6* Bailout on Washington +3.5
The Key: Off 3 consecutive defeats, including an embarrassing 52-17 loss at Arizona last Saturday, expect the Huskies to come storming back on their home field where they play their best football. The Huskies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, including a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last 3. This includes a win over Stanford and a cover against USC. Plus, Washington is 11-2 ATS all-time under coach Sarkisian following a game in which it gave up 37 points or more. It has won in these spots by an average score of 27.6 to 26.1. Take the points. |
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10-27-12 | Florida v. Georgia +7 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 27 m | Show | |
6* SEC Game of the Week on Georgia +7
The Key: Florida is being overvalued here because it won 44-11 at home vs. South Carolina and Georgia lost 35-7 at South Carolina. There's a big difference between playing a team at home versus on the road. Plus, Florida's win over the Gamecocks isn't quite as impressive as it looks on the scoreboard. It only managed 183 yards of offense and benefited from 4 S.C. turnovers. Georgia won last season's meeting by 4 points and Florida won the previous meeting by 3. I'll gladly take the points here as I'm expecting another close game that Georgia will have an opportunity to win outright. Georgia's win over Kentucky last Saturday sets up a nice wagering situation for us as the Bulldogs are 24-14 ATS under coach Richt when playing away from home following a win against a conference rival. The Dawgs have won by an average of 4.6 points in this spot. |
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10-27-12 | Texas Tech +7.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 24-55 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Texas Tech +7.5
The Key: Texas Tech is not getting the respect it deserves here. It has either won or lost by 7 points or less in 7 straight matchups with Kansas State. The Red Raiders lost last season's matchup with the Wildcats by 7 points despite outgaining them 580-339 because of 4 turnovers. I don't expect Tech to be as generous this season as they haven't committed more than 3 turnovers in any game and have committed 2 or less in 6 of their 7 games. Plus, this Texas Tech team is far better than the one we saw last season. Last season, Tech was one of the worst defensive teams in the country. This year it's one of the best. It ranks 8th in total defense with 282 ypg allowed. The Red Raiders are more explosive offensively this season too. The Red Raiders have never lost on the road following a game in which they combined with their opponent to score 60 points or more under coach Tuberville. They are a perfect 8-0 ATS in this situation, winning these games by an average of 14.0 points. The Red Raiders are also 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the points. |
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10-26-12 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Louisville | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
7* Big East Game of the Month on Cincinnati +3.5
The Key: The Bearcats are 33-12 ATS the last two decades versus good team that outscore their foes by at least 10 points per game on average. The Cardinals are a poor 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games under the Friday night lights and a lousy 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings, and the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at Louisville. Cincinnati has won four in a row in this series by at least 8 points and is 3-1 ATS in those games. Take the points as the Bearcats have an excellent opportunity to win this one straight up. |
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10-25-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
7* NFL Thursday Night Game of the Year on Buccaneers +7
The Key: The Bucs are showing major value at +7 considering they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points all season. Plus, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games against the Vikings. Also, they have either won or lost by 7 points or fewer in 11 straight meetings with Minnesota. Plays against home teams with a good offense that averages 335-370 ypg and is matched up against a team with a poor defense that allows 370 or more ypg are 36-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 7.3 points but have only won by an average of 5.5. Bet the Bucs. |
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10-25-12 | Detroit Tigers -122 v. San Francisco Giants | 0-2 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
6* World Series Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Tigers -122
The Key: I missed with the Tigers last night as Verlander threw his first dud in quite some time, but I'll come right back with them tonight with Fister on the bump. The Tigers are 7-2 in his last 9 starts, including a perfect 2-0 in his playoff starts (1.35 ERA in the postseason). The Giants, meanwhile, are 0-3 in Bumgarner's last 3 starts (10.50 ERA in these games). Plus, the Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Giants are 1-4 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 2-8 in Bumgarner's last 10 starts as an underdog. Bet Detroit. |
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10-25-12 | Clemson v. Wake Forest +13 | 42-13 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
6* ACC Game of the Week on Wake Forest +13
The Key: This is too many points for Clemson to be laying on the road against a team it was fortunate to defeat last season. It had to rally from 14 points down to squeak out a 3-point victory in last year's matchup. Plus, Wake Forest has either won or lost by 10 points or less in 6 of its last 7 home games against Clemson. Also, plays against road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with a terrible defense that allows 6.1 or more yards per play are 28-8 ATS since 1992. These teams have been favored by an average of 14.9 points but have only won by an average of 7.4. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings,and the tigers are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings at Wake Forest. Take Wake. |
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10-24-12 | Detroit Tigers -163 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -163 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
7* World Series Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -163
The Key: Zito is pitching better than he has in years, but he's still no Verlander. The Detroit ace is 7-0 in his last 7 starts and has allowed more than 1 run only once during this stretch. He allowed 2 runs in the lone exception. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts vs. teams from the National League West and 5-0 in his last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall, 6-0 in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Verlander has a WHIP of 1.017 while Zito's WHIP is 1.392. That should be a concern for the Giants as the Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Take the Tigers. |
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10-23-12 | Arkansas State v. Louisiana-Lafayette -4 | Top | 50-27 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UL Lafayette -4
The Key: The Arkansas State Red Wolves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. They are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series and 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings in UL Lafayette. They are also on a 0-8 ATS slide in road games versus good offensive teams that average 5.9 yards or more per game (ULL averages 6.1 ypp) and have lost these 8 games by an average of 23.4 points. The Ragin' Cajuns are on a 6-0 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Pass defense has been ULL's biggest weakness but it is on a 6-0 ATS run versus good passing teams that complete 58% of their throws or more (Ark St. has a 62.4% completion rate). The Cajuns have won these 6 by an average of 9.1 points. ULL has won its last 7 at home in this series, and I expect its home dominance to continue. Lay the number. |
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10-22-12 | Detroit Lions +7 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions +7
The Key: Each of Detroit's 3 losses have come by 8 points or less, and I fully expect it to take Chicago right down to the wire tonight. The Lions have either won of lost by 5 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Bears and are 3-1 ATS in those games as a result. The Bears have the NFL's top-ranked run defense (65.8 ypg) but Detroit is 10-1 ATS versus teams with excellent rushing defenses that allow 70 rushing yards or less per game the last two decades. It has defeated these teams by an average of 4.9 points. Also, Chicago is just 4-17 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games the last two decades. It has lost by an average of 4.3 points in these games. The Bears have yet to see an offense this season that's as explosive as Detroit's. We'll take the points. |
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10-22-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants -132 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
6* NLCS Game 7 *CA$H COW* on Giants -132
The Key: The Giants get the call at home in Game 7 as they have the momentum on their side following back-to-back dominant performances. Kyle Lohse has had a great season but the Cards can't be trusted with him on the hill tonight as they are just 8-18 in his last 26 road starts against teams with a winning record. The Giants have won each of Cain's last 2 and 3 of his last 4 home starts against the Cardinals. The Giants lost to Lohse with Cain on the mound in Game 3 but that was in St. Louis. Now, Cain's at home where he has an ERA of 2.18 this season. Lohse's 3.27 road ERA pales in comparison. Take the Giants. |
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10-21-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers pk
The Key: I'm confident the Steelers are the better football team, and I expect them to continue their dominance of the Bengals in this highly motivated spot. In danger of falling to 2-4 and losing even more ground on Baltimore, the Steelers will show up in a big way here. Pittsburgh is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings with those wins coming by an average of 14.3 points. All four victories came by at least six points. The Steelers have been an awesome investment in bounce back spots as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. The Bengals, meanwhile, have been a poor investment when entering with no momentum. They are 0-5-3 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. They are also a lousy 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 division games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Steelers are on a 13-3-1 ATS run in their last 17 in Cincinnati. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-21-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants -120 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
6* NLCS Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Giants -120
The Key: The Giants have the edge at home with Vogelsong on the hill. They are 14-4 in his last 18 starts as a favorite, 11-3 in his last 14 home starts and 10-2 in his last 12 starts as a home favorite. The Cardinals are 1-4 in Carpenter's last 5 starts, 1-4 in his last 5 road starts and 1-6 in his last 7 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Take the Giants. |
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10-21-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Buffalo Bills -3 | Top | 35-34 | Loss | -125 | 68 h 5 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Month on Bills -3
The Key: The Titans cannot be trusted on the road. They have lost each of their three road games this season by an average of 25.0 points. Going back to last season, the Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. They also haven't been able to string together back-to-back solid performances so the fact they enter off a win over Pittsburgh doesn't bode well for them. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. The biggest thing here is we can expect coach Chan Gailey to have his Bills ready to go as they are at home and have a chance to go above the .500 mark. They enter with a little momentum on their side following a win at Arizona that ended a two-game skid. NFL teams under the direction of Gailey have never lost at home when entering a contest with losses in two of their last three games. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS all-time in this situation with an average winning margin of 13.3 points. Both teams have struggled defensively, but Buffalo is the superior offensive team. It has one of the best running attacks in the NFL while Tennessee has the worst. Expect the Bills to run away with a comfortable home win Sunday. |
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10-21-12 | Washington Redskins +6.5 v. NY Giants | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show | |
6* NFC East *CA$H COW* on Redskins +6.5
The Key: The reigning Super Bowl champs are being overvalued here because of last week's impressive win in San Francisco. The fact of the matter is Washington won both of last season's meetings convincingly (by 14 and 13 points), and I believe they are a better team with Robert Griffin III at the controls. The Redskins have been a terrific investment in this point spread range at 60-39 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. The Redskins have the second-best running attack in the NFL and are coming off a 183-yard performance on the ground last week. That's good for us as the Skins are on a 13-2 ATS run in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. They are also on a 6-2 ATS run versus NFC East foes. Take the points. |
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10-20-12 | Alabama v. Tennessee +20 | Top | 44-13 | Loss | -103 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
7* SEC Game of the Month on Tennessee +20
The Key: After missing out on chances for a signature win in games against Florida, and Georgia, I expect the Vols to go after this one with all they've got. Tennessee played 4th-ranked Florida to a 17-point game and actually led that one deep into the 3rd quarter. It also played 12th-ranked Georgia to a 7-point game on the road. I'm here to tell you Alabama isn't that much better than Florida and Georgia. I expect the Vols to keep this one much closer than the odds makers think. Plays on home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points in conference action that return 8 or more offensive starters including the QB are 80-31 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this scenario have only lost by an average of 10.6 points. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Take Tennessee and the points. |
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10-20-12 | Nebraska -6.5 v. Northwestern | 29-28 | Loss | -107 | 68 h 17 m | Show | |
6* Big Ten Game of the Week on Nebraska -6.5
The Key: With an extra week of preparation time on their side, and hungry to avenge last season's home loss to Wildcats, the Cornhuskers will come through for us Saturday afternoon. The Nebraska offense has been explosive. It's the defense that has been inconsistent. However, I'm confident the "D" will show up in this motivated spot, especially since it has had 2 full weeks to gameplan for Northwestern. Besides, Nebraska is 7-0 ATS lifetime under coach Pelini after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games. They've won by an average of 18.0 points in this spot. Nebraska is also 7-0 ATS all-time under Pelini in road games after going over the total in 2 or more consecutive games. Northwestern has failed to cover the number in 12 of its last 16 home games when up against a team with a winning record. Bet the Huskers. |
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10-20-12 | Virginia Tech +8.5 v. Clemson | 17-38 | Loss | -108 | 65 h 40 m | Show | |
6* ACC Game of the Week on Virginia Tech +8.5
The Key: This is a game the Hokies had circled heading into the season. After 5 straight convincing wins in the series, Virginia Tech was embarrassed by Clemson, not once, but twice last season. Those losses are all the motivation the Hokies will need to give the Tigers a game. Plus, I don't trust Clemson laying this many points in this spot because of how poorly its defense has played. The Tigers rank 99th in the nation in total defense with 446.0 yards allowed per game. The Hokies are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games versus a team with a winning record. Most importantly, the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams. |
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10-19-12 | San Francisco Giants +147 v. St. Louis Cardinals | 5-0 | Win | 147 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
6* NLCS Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Giants +147
The Key: The Giants are 12-0 in Zito's last 12 starts, 7-0 in his last 7 starts as an underdog, 6-0 in his last 6 road starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts versus a team with a winning record, 9-0 in his last 9 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 4-0 in his last 4 starts versus the National League Central. Look for the Giants to stave off elimination behind a strong performance from Zito. |
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10-19-12 | Connecticut v. Syracuse -4 | Top | 10-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -4
The Key: Connecticut cannot be trusted as a road underdog as it is 0-6 ATS when catching points on the road the last 2 seasons. Syracuse has played well at home where it is 2-1 and its only loss is a 1-point setback to a Northwestern team that's 6-1. The Orange lost at Rutgers 23-15 last week despite outgaining the Scarlet Knights 418-237 as they were hurt by 4 turnovers. The Huskies were outgained 280-244 in a 19-3 loss at Rutgers Oct. 6. Syracuse's performance against Rutgers tells me it has underachieved to this point. The Orange should be able to cover this number as long as they can do a better job of taking care of the football. I'm confident they will as UConn hasn't forced more than 2 turnovers in a game all season. |
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10-18-12 | Oregon v. Arizona State +9 | Top | 43-21 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
7* Pac-12 Game of the Month on Arizona State +9
The Key: Plain and simple, this is too many points to be giving a team coached by Todd Graham. His teams are an awesome 12-3 ATS all-time when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. They are also 12-2 ATS lifetime as a home underdog. The Sun Devils are 5-0-1 ATS this season and a terrific 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 home games. Plus, the home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. Oregon has been rolling, but it's yet to come up against a defense like the one it will see tonight. Take the points as the Sun Devils take the Ducks down to the wire. |
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10-18-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -7 | Top | 6-13 | Push | 0 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -7
The Key: We get the 49ers in a great situation tonight. No team in the NFL has responded better following an upset defeat the past few seasons, and you can bet they'll be hungry following Sunday's ugly loss to the Giants. The Niners are on a 7-0 ATS run after suffering an upset defeat in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. They've held their opponents to just 10.7 points on average in these games while scoring an average of 22.6 points. Additionally, San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 home games against the Seahawks. These 3 wins have come by 16, 19 and 13 points. The 49ers are the best defensive team in the NFL while the Seahawks rank in the bottom 4 on offense. The Seattle defense has been good, but it won't be able to completely shut down a San Francisco offense that ranks 7th in the league. Expect the 49er defense to dominate this one and for the offense to do enough to cover the spread. Lay the points. |
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10-18-12 | New York Yankees -115 v. Detroit Tigers | 1-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
6* ALCS Game 4 *CA$H COW* on Yankees -115
The Key: The Yankees are too good of a team to lose four in a row to the Tigers. They've only loss four straight games twice all season. Last night's rainout has allowed them to refocus, and I fully expect them to bounce back here behind a dominant performance from Sabathia. The Yankee are 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 starts and have won those by an average of 4.4 runs as he has held the opposition to 2 earned runs or fewer in each. The Yankees are also 3-0 in Sabathia's starts against the Tigers this season and have won each of those by at least 4 runs as he has held them to 3 earned runs or less in each. |
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10-17-12 | San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals -120 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -120
The Key: Expect the Cardinals to bounce back strong this afternoon as the series shifts to St. Louis where they have won 35 of their last 52 games. Lohse has a lower ERA then Cain on the season (2.82 compared to 2.90), a lower ERA at home than Cain has on the road (2.33 compared to 3.62), a lower ERA over their last 3 starts (3.37 compared to 4.59) and a lower career ERA against the Giants/Cardinals (3.78 compared to 4.94). The Cardinals are 7-0 in their last 7 games following a loss and 15-5 in Lohse's last 20 starts as a home favorite. The Giants are 3-7 in Cain's last 10 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take St. Louis. |
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10-16-12 | Louisiana-Lafayette -4 v. North Texas | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on UL Lafayette -4
The Key: The Ragin' Cajuns have never lost in games when the total is between 56.5 and 63 points under the direction of Coach Hudspeth. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this spot. Fading teams coached by McCarney is 9-0 ATS all-time if they're up against an opponent who commits 1 or less turnovers per game. Fading his teams is 8-0 ATS all-time of they're up against a team with a turnover margin of +1.5 per game or better. These trends elude to North Texas needing to force turnovers to win games, and UL Lafayette hasn't been generous with the football. Lay the number. |
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10-16-12 | New York Yankees v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
6* ALCS Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Tigers -1.5 +125
The Key: It's Verlander time. Detroit is 6-0 in his last 6 starts and has won those by 3.7 runs on average. It is 10-0 in his last 10 home starts and has won those by 2.9 runs on average. The Tigers are also 15-0 in his last 15 home starts in the second half of the season versus teams with a winning mark. They have won these games by an average of 3.5 runs. They are also 14-0 in his last 14 home starts against teams that have won 54-62% of their games. They have won these games by an average of 2.7 runs. Bet Detroit on the run line. |
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10-15-12 | Denver Broncos +1 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +1
The Key: San Diego is 3-2 while Denver is 2-3 but the Broncos have been the more impressive team as they have showed well against stiffer competition. San Diego's pass defense, which ranks 22nd in the NFL with 260 yards allowed per game, has been suspect. I believe it will be the downfall of the Chargers tonight as Peyton Manning is dialed in. He has passed for 1,005 yards with 8 TDs and no picks the past 3 weeks. Fading home favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games - a team winning between 51-60% of their games against a team with a losing record - has produced a 32-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Bet the Broncos. |
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10-15-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants -111 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
6* NLCS Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Giants -111
The Key: The Giants dropped Game 1 but have been resilient. We saw that last series when they won 3 in a row in Cincy after dropping the first 2 at home. While this San Francisco club never counts itself out, it would prefer not to have to do all its damage on the road again. The Giants are 14-5 in their last 19 games following a loss, 19-9 in Vogelsong's last 28 starts, 13-4 in his last 17 starts as a favorite, 10-3 in his last 13 home starts and 9-2 in his last 11 starts as a home favorite. |
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10-14-12 | Green Bay Packers +3.5 v. Houston Texans | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Packers +3.5
The Key: This is a huge game for the Packers, who can get back to .500 with a win. I like them in this motivated spot as they go up against a Houston team playing on a short week. The Packers are 15-5 ATS under coach McCarthy as a road underdog of 7 points or less. They have never lost under coach McCarthy on the road versus good defensive teams that give up 17 points or less. They are 6-0 ATS all-time versus these teams and have defeated them by an average of 8.1 points. |
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10-14-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. San Francisco Giants -130 | 6-4 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Giants -130
The Key: Lynn has had a nice season but Bumgarner is more proven. Plus, Bumgarner has a lower ERA than Lynn on the season. His 2.61 home ERA is far superior to the 3.92 ERA Lynn has posted on the road. Lynn has had no success against the Giants. He's 0-2 lifetime with an ERA of 7.15 against them. Bumgarner is 2-2 with a 3.62 ERA against St. Louis. The Giants are 20-6 in Bumgarner's last 26 home starts, 29-11 in his last 40 starts as a favorite and 21-6 in his last 27 starts as a home favorite. Take San Francisco. |
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10-14-12 | St. Louis Rams v. Miami Dolphins -3 | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Dolphins -3
The Key: Miami is really playing well, and I expect it to take care of business at home against a St. Louis team that's 0-2 on the road this season. The Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, and they might even be the worse now that top playmaker Danny Amendola is expected to be out at least a month. They won't be able to keep pace with Miami, which ranks in the top half of the league on offense. With Amendola out, the Rams will likely have to turn even more to Steven Jackson and the running game. However, they won't get much done on the ground this week against a defense that leads the NFL against the run with 61.4 ypg allowed. The Dolphins are on a 9-0 ATS run against team with a winning mark. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. And, fading any team with a winning record that checks in off an upset win at home against a division rival has produced a 68-27 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. |
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10-14-12 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Raiders +9.5
The Key: Atlanta is clearly being overvalued here because of its 5-0 start. Look for an Oakland squad that has had an extra week to prepare to give the Falcons a game. Atlanta has only defeated 1 of its past 4 opponents by more than 7 points. The Falcons are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home contests when checking in off 3 or more consecutive victories. They have actually lost by an average of 1.9 points in this spot. Plus, the Raiders are on a 5-2-1 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Grab the points. |
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10-13-12 | South Carolina v. LSU -2.5 | 21-23 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 57 m | Show | |
6* SEC Game of the Week on LSU -2.5
The Key: Back at home and motivated by last week's loss to Florida, I'm confident LSU will continue its dominance of South Carolina. The Tigers are on a 16-1-1 run in the series, and they are a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings with those wins coming by an average of 17.3 points. LSU doesn't lose very often period, and it certainly doesn't lose consecutive games. It is 7-0 in its last 7 games following a loss and hasn't dropped consecutive games since 2008. Take LSU. |
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10-13-12 | Middle Tenn State v. Florida International +3 | 34-30 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 58 m | Show | |
6* Sun Belt Game of the Week on FIU +3
The Key: FIU is a much better team than its record leads you to believe. It has been a victim of a tough schedule to this point but now it gets an opponent at home that it is superior to. The Golden Panthers won last season's meeting 31-18 on the road and should take care of business this year as well. MTSU is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better over the last 2 seasons. It is also 0-6 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams (32 or more possession minutes/game) over the last 3 seasons and 0-7 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=5.9 yards/play - over the last 3 seasons. And, the Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. FIU wins this one outright. |
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10-13-12 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -10 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 66 h 37 m | Show |
7* ACC Game of the Year on Virginia Tech -10
The Key: Fueled by back-to-back defeats, and back in front of the home fans for the first time in 3 weeks, expect the Hokies to roll against a Duke program they have lunched on. VA Tech is 11-0 in its last 11 against Duke, winning those by an average of 21.4 points. Also, VA Tech is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. It has won by an average of 11.0 points in this spot. Duke is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games after 3 or more consecutive covers. It has lost by an average of 13.9 points in this spot. Plus, the Hokies are on an impressive 38-21 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. It has won in this spot by an average of 11.2 points. Given the level of motivation here, I expect the Hokies to destroy these averages. |
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10-12-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Washington Nationals -132 | 9-7 | Loss | -132 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Nationals -132
The Key: The Nats are 3-0 in Gonzalez's last 3 starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite and 6-0 in his last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Washington is also 11-0 in his 11 starts against the NL Central this season (2 of those wins came against the Cards). The Cardinals are 0-5 in Wainwright's last 5 starts as a road underdog and 2-9 in their last 11 meetings at Washington. Nats advance. |
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10-12-12 | Navy v. Central Michigan -1.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Michigan -1.5
The Key: Navy can't be trusted on the road. It managed to squeak out an overtime win at Air Force last week but had dropped 4 of its last 5 on the highway prior. Navy also can't be trusted against MAC opponents as it is just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games against them. Central Mich has a big won over Iowa on the road this year. It also beat a Northern Illinois team last season that won 11 games. In other words, the Chipps have the talent to compete against good teams. Consistency has been an issue, but I love their chances here as they strap on their helmets in front of the home fans for the first time in over a month. The Midshipmen are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Friday games. Take the Chippewas. |
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10-11-12 | Detroit Tigers -140 v. Oakland A's | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Tigers -140
The Key: The A's have been a great story this season, but their inability to solve Verlander ends their season tonight. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts and 4-0 in his last 4 starts against the A's. The Athletics are 0-5 in Parker's last 5 starts with the total set at 6.5 or lower. The Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite while the Athletics are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog. Bet Detroit. |
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10-11-12 | Arizona State v. Colorado +23 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Colorado +23
The Key: Expect the bye week to do Colorado some good as it is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a bye week. The Sun Devils are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games off a double digit road win. Motivated by a poor performance last time out, and further motivated by a poor showing against ASU last year, the Buffaloes will keep this one closer than the odds makers think. |
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10-11-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +6.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Titans +6.5
The Key: Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Mike Tomlin when up against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game. The Steelers have lost by an average score of 19.3 to 18.7 in these games. The Steelers are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last road games played on a grass field. They have lost these 8 by an average score of 23.0 to 14.9. Take the Titans and the points. |
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10-10-12 | Baltimore Orioles +1.5 v. New York Yankees | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles +1.5 -130
The Key: Really like the Orioles catching 1.5 runs at an affordable price with Gonzalez on the bump. Baltimore is 11-4 in his starts this season and 7-2 in his starts as a road underdog on the year. The Orioles are a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and he is 2-0 in 2 career starts at Yankee Stadium with an ERA of 2.63. He outdueled Kuroda in his most recent start there Aug. 31, giving up no runs on 4 hits in 7 innings of work while striking out 9 and walking 1 in a 6-1 victory. Take the Orioles on the run line. |
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10-09-12 | Detroit Tigers v. Oakland A's -132 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on A's -132
The Key: The Tigers got loose for 5 runs in their game 2 win, but the Athletics are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent enters off a game in which it scored 5 runs or more. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-4 in Sanchez's last 4 starts against a team with a winning record. The Athletics are 4-0 in Anderson's last 4 starts in the favorite role. The Tigers have dropped 7 of their last 9 playoffs games on the road, and I expect their postseason road struggles to continue against an Oakland club that has won 39 of its last 54 at home. |
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10-08-12 | Houston Texans v. NY Jets +9 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 0 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets +9
The Key: I'll gladly get behind the Jets catching close to double digits because underdogs or pickems that average 18.0 to 23.0 ppg, and are checking into a matchup with a team that averages 27.0-plus ppg, following a contest in which they were held to 9.0 points or less are 33-11 ATS since 1983. These dogs have only lost by 3.3 points on average in this scenario. Plus, the Texans are only 1-10 ATS all-time under coach Kubiak when matched up against teams that give up 27.0 points or more per game. They have actually lost to these foes by an average of 0.6 points. The Jets are a more talented football team than they showed last week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They'll show up tonight. Take the points. |
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10-08-12 | Washington Nationals v. St. Louis Cardinals -111 | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Cardinals -111
The Key: I expect the Cards to bounce back this afternoon. They haven't lost consecutive games in nearly a month and are 5-0 in their last 5 games following defeat. St. Louis' Garcia enters the postseason on top of his game, as evidenced by the 2.29 ERA he's posted over his last 3 starts. He poses some major problems for a Washington club that is 0-5 in its last 5 road contests vs. southpaw starters. The Nats' Zimmerman has had a great season but he has a 9.12 ERA in 5 career starts against St. Louis. Garcia has a 3.74 ERA in 4 career starts against Washington. Bet the Red Birds. |
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10-07-12 | Cincinnati Reds v. San Francisco Giants -149 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -149 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -149
The Key: The Reds are 0-4 in Arroyo's last 4 starts, 0-6 in his last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150, 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record, 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. the Giants and 0-4 in his last 4 starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The Giants are 11-0 in Bumgarner's last 11 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5 and 6-0 in his last 6 starts on 7 or more days' rest. The Giants bounce back strong. |
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10-07-12 | San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -3
The Key: The Saints are 0-4, but they're not going to fold, especially not at home, where they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning road record. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are also on a 7-0 ATS run at home vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards/game. They are on a 6-0 ATS run in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in each of their last 3 games. This is the week the Saints finally put it all together. Lay the points. |
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10-07-12 | Denver Broncos +7 v. New England Patriots | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 40 m | Show | |
6* AFC *CA$H COW* on Broncos +7
The Key: I really like the Broncos, who haven't lost by more than 6 points this season and are beginning to jell, catching more than 6 points. Playing on road teams - slow starting team that has been outscored by 5-plus points per game in the first half after allowing 6 points or less last game - has produced a 23-4 ATS record the last 29 years. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 10 seasons. Basically, this system reveals that Denver has the defense to stay in the game even if the offense comes out slow. I don't think Denver will start slow against a New England defense that has really struggled in pass coverage. Take the points as Peyton Manning has himself a big day through the air. |
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10-07-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 20 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Steelers -3
The Key: The Eagles, who are 0-3-1 ATS this season, are fortunate to be 3-1 as they have yet to put it all together. Their inconsistent play will catch up with them today as they go up against a hungry and prepared Steelers squad. The Steelers have been money coming out of a bye as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Pittsburgh has also been money in bounce back spots. It is 9-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 28.6 to 9.0. It is also 8-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Expect the Steelers to roll behind a dominant performance from their defense. |
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10-06-12 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -3 | Top | 38-63 | Win | 100 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
7* Big Ten Game of the Year on Ohio State -3
The Key: Nebraska can't be trusted on the road where it was blown out by Wisconsin and Michigan last year and gave up over 650 yards in a 36-30 loss to UCLA this year. The Cornhuskers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games. More importantly, last week's upset win over Michigan State sets up a perfect wagering situation. Teams headed up by Urban Meyer are 9-0 ATS when checking into a matchup following an upset victory. His teams have won these games by an average of 21.0 points. In other words, Meyer's teams haven't suffered letdowns. Take Ohio State and lay the points. |
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10-06-12 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 120 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
6* MLB Playoffs *CA$H COW* on Tigers -1.5 +120
The Key: Verlander is 4-0 in his last 4 starts with those wins coming by an average of 3.5 runs. The Tigers are 9-0 in his last 9 home starts with those wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. Verlander is also 3-0 in his last 3 starts against Oakland with those wins coming by an average of 3.0 runs. He's given up just 1 run in his last 21 innings against the A's. Expect another dominant performance here. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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10-06-12 | New Mexico State v. Idaho -10 | 18-26 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 44 m | Show | |
6* Under the Radar Blowout on Idaho -10
The Key: Idaho is 0-5 and playing a team it lost to by 7 points last season yet it is laying double digits? Exactly! The home team has won 5 of the last 6 in this series and those 5 wins have come by an average of 11.6 points. Idaho won 37-14 when it last hosted NM St. in 2010. It is also worth mentioning that Idaho has won 3 of the last 4 in this series with those 3 wins coming by an average of 14.7 points. Ohio is the best team NM St. has faced this season while Idaho has stepped on the field with LSU and North Carolina. Those butt-kickin's will pay dividends here. The fact New Mexico State has only forced a total of 2 turnovers in its last 4 games is a major issue for them. They are 0-6 ATS under coach DeWayne Walker after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers. They have lost these 6 by an average score of 36.7 to 8.8. Take Idaho and lay the points. |
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10-06-12 | Oklahoma -5 v. Texas Tech | 41-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 8 m | Show | |
6* Big 12 Game of the Week on Oklahoma -5
The Key: I'm taking the more talented team in a huge revenge spot. The Sooners were No. 1 in the country when they were upset as a 29-point favorite by Texas Tech last season. You know what they say about paybacks. Not only will Oklahoma be very motivated, but it will also be very well prepared as it is coming off a bye. The Red Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Sooners are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 20 points in their previous game. Take Oklahoma and lay the points. |
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10-05-12 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -1 | Top | 13-14 | Push | 0 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Syracuse -1
The Key: Pitt can't be trusted on the road. It was blown out in its only previous road game this season, and it is even 4-13 ATS in its last 17 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage of 25% or less. The Panthers are also 6-19 ATS in their last 25 road games following a 2-game home stand. The Orange are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week, and the favorite is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Take Syracuse. |
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10-05-12 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Atlanta Braves -165 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
7* MLB Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -165
The Key: The Braves are 23-0 in Medlen's last 23 starts, 13-0 in his last 13 home starts, 9-0 in his last 9 starts versus clubs with a winning mark and 6-0 in his last 6 starts when valued as a favorite of -151 to -200. Plus, the command Medlen has shown lately is a great sign. The Braves are 11-0 in his starts over the last 3 seasons when he enters a start following back-to-back outings with 1 walk or none. The Braves are also 12-0 in his starts over the last 3 seasons when he enters a start following an outing in which he gave up 1 earned run or none. Take Atlanta. |
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10-04-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams +2 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
7* NFC West Game of the Month on Rams +2
The Key: Arizona is getting treated like a 4-0 team by laying points on the road when it could easily be 2-2. The Cards were extremely fortunate to win at home last week as they gave up 480 yards of offense to a Miami team led by a rookie QB. Not only does the defense all of sudden look very human, the offense is one of the worst in the NFL. It ranks next-to-last in total offense with just 271.8 yards per game. The fact St. Louis is coming off an upset win at home over Seattle bodes extremely well for us. Consider that teams coached by Jeff Fishers are 7-0 ATS all-time following an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog. His teams have won by an average score of 27.1 to 19.0 in this situation. Take the Rams. |
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10-04-12 | East Carolina v. Central Florida -11.5 | Top | 20-40 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
7* C-USA Game of the Month on Central Florida -11.5
The Key: The Knights have a pair of losses to Ohio State and Missouri but they have taken care of business against their two lesser opponents, crushing Akron 56-14 and Florida International 33-20. Off a loss UCF will be very focused here, and it will be further fueled by last season's upset loss at East Carolina. The Knights are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a SU loss while the Pirates are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Also, the Knights are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following an ATS loss while the Pirates are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Knights are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 conference games, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The last time ECU visited, UCF handed them a 14-point defeat. I'm expecting an even bigger win from the Knights tonight. |
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10-03-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +100
The Key: The D-backs have never lost to the Rockies at home with ace Ian Kennedy on the mound. They are 6-0 lifetime in this spot and have won these by an average of 2.83 runs. The D-backs are 7-0 in Kennedy's last 7 starts versus the Rockies overall and have won these by an average of 2.86 runs. Kennedy enters this contest pitching his best ball of the season, and Arizona is 6-0 in his last 6 starts as a result. It has won these by 2.33 runs on average. The Rockies, on the other hand, are 0-5 in Francis' last 5 starts and have lost those by an average of 4.0 runs per game. With their ace on the hill and a chance to notch a winning season, I'll take the Snakes on the run line. |
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10-02-12 | New York Mets -145 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Mets -145
The Key: The Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite, and I expect this trend to continue with Dickey on the hill. The Mets 9-0 in Dickey |
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10-01-12 | Colorado Rockies v. Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -1.5 +106
The Key: The Rockies 0-9 in their last 9 on the road and have lost those by an an average of 4.0 runs. Pomeranz has struggled against the NL West all season (0-7 with a 7.24 ERA in 10 starts), and the Rockies are 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the division. They have dropped these by 4.75 runs on average. They are also 0-2 in his 2 career starts versus Arizona, losing these by 6.5 runs on average. The D-backs, on the other hand, are 4-0 lifetime in Miley's starts against the Rockies and have won these by an average of 5.75 runs. Take the Snakes on the run line. |
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10-01-12 | Chicago Bears +3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Bears +3.5
The Key: Fading Dallas as a favorite has been a golden investment. Doing so has produced a powerful 17-4 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the points as the Bears have an excellent chance to win this one straight up. |
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09-30-12 | Miami Dolphins +6.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 23 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Month on Dolphins +6.5
The Key: The Dolphins, who are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, are showing a ton of value catching this many points as they have an excellent chance to win this game straight up. Fading favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, if they have a winning record on the season, has produced a perfect 7-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are being overvalued because of their 3-0 start, but I'm far from sold on them. They have had fewer total yards than their opponent in each of their games, and they rank 31st in the NFL in total offense with just 263.3 yards per game. It's going to be mighty tough for them to cover this number with no more offense than they've been able to generate. Take the points. |
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09-30-12 | New York Mets v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5
The Key: The Braves are 22-0 in Medlen's last 22 starts and have won them by an average of 3.4 runs. They are also 4-0 lifetime in his starts against the Mets and have won those by an average of 5.0 runs. Bet the Braves on the run line. |
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09-30-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. St. Louis Rams +3 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 91 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Rams +3
The Key: Expect a letdown from Seattle following Monday's emotional win. The Seahawks are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU win and 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 road games. Playing against favorites off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season, has produced a 19-3 ATS mark the last 10 seasons, a 13-1 ATS mark the last 5 seasons and a 7-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. |
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09-30-12 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show | |
6* Panthers +7.5
The Key: Playing against home teams - an opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers has produced a 22-4 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. |
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09-30-12 | New England Patriots -4 v. Buffalo Bills | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Patriots -4
The Key: Playing on favorites that have covered the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team winning between 25%-40% of their games playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 37-11 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, New England is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. It has defeated these opponents by an average score of 38.7 to 18.5. Lastly, the Pats are 13-4 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. |
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09-29-12 | South Carolina v. Kentucky +20.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 7 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Game of the Week on Kentucky +20.5
The Key: Off a satisfying win over Missouri and with a big showdown versus Georgia on deck, I expect the Gamecocks to get caught looking past Kentucky here. South Carolina is notorious for its letdowns. It is 3-11 ATS following a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival under coach Spurrier. It is 0-6 ATS off any home win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and has only won by an average of 2.5 points in these games. Kentucky was embarrassed at S. Carolina last season, but before that 5 straight matchups had been decided by 15 points or less. Take the point as the Wildcats catch SC napping and keep this one close. |
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09-29-12 | Detroit Tigers -1.5 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -140
The Key: The Tigers are 3-0 in Verlander's last 3 starts, winning each of those by 4 runs while he has posted a 0.86 ERA. The Tigers are 4-0 in Verlander's last 4 starts as a road favorite of -200 or greater, winning these by an average of 2.3 runs. They are also also 6-0 in their last 6 games as a road favorite of -200 or greater, winning these by an average of 2.0 runs. Detroit is 7-0 in Verlander's last 7 starts against the Twins and has won these by an average of 4.3 runs. He has held the Twins to 1 earned run or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts against them. Lastly, the Twins are 0-4 in Walters' last 4 starts as a home underdog and have lost these by 2.0 runs on average. Take the Tigers on the run line. |
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09-29-12 | Penn State v. Illinois -1 | 35-7 | Loss | -106 | 66 h 9 m | Show | |
6* Illinois -1
The Key: Illinois will be hungry following last week's shocking home loss to Louisiana Tech. Teams coached by Tim Beckman are 7-0 ATS all-time following a defeat by 28 or more points. His teams have bounced back to win by an average score of 34.1 to 17.0 in these games. This shows us Beckman knows how to get his troops refocused following a poor performance. Additionally, the Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU loss. The Nittany Lions are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS win and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. The Nittany Lions are also just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Illinois. |
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09-29-12 | Minnesota v. Iowa -7 | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 66 h 9 m | Show | |
6* Iowa -7
The Key: As if last week's loss to Central Michigan isn't enough motivation, the Hawkeyes will draw further incentive from losing games at Minnesota the last 2 seasons. I fully expect them to have their revenge here as they have won 5 in a row at home against the Gophers by an average of 15.4 points. Iowa is 12-4 ATS all-time under coach Kirk Ferentz as a home favorite of 7 points or less. It has won by an average score of 31.9 to 18.5 in these games. We saw the way Minnesota struggled on the road against UNLV, who is among the worst teams in the country, and we can expect its road woes to continue at Kinnick Stadium. |
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09-28-12 | Houston Astros v. Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Brewers -1.5 -125
The Key: The Brewers are 11-0 in Gallardo's last 11 starts, winning them by an average of 3.9 runs. Gallardo is 10-0 in his last 10 starts versus Houston, and the Brew Crew have won these by an average of 5.7 runs. Milwaukee is 13-0 in Gallardo's starts in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons versus teams that are outscored by an average of 0.5 or more runs/game. It has won these by an average of 4.6 runs. The Brewers are 15-0 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average of 4.9 runs, and 13-0 in home games in the 2nd half of the season versus NL teams allowing 4.8 or more runs/game over the last 2 seasons, winning these by an average of 3.2 runs. Bet Milwaukee on the run line. |
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09-28-12 | Hawaii v. BYU -26.5 | Top | 0-47 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU -26.5
The Key: BYU has the overwhelming advantage tonight because of its defense, specifically its run defense, which ranks 10th in the nation with 68.8 yards allowed per game. Home favorites that have held their opponents to 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games, as long as they are matched up against an opponent that was outrushed by 125 or more yards in its last game, are 48-20 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is 17-6 ATS the last 5 seasons and ties into a golden trend in support of the Cougars. BYU is a perfect 6-0 ATS after holding its foes to 125 rushing yards or fewer in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Unlike in the past, Hawaii needs its running game this year. It won't be able to run on BYU. Lay the points as the Cougars roll at home tonight. |
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09-27-12 | Stanford v. Washington +7 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
7* Pac-12 *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington +7
The Key: Stanford upset USC in its last game, but now it goes on the road for the first time this season to take on a Washington team that will be out for some serious revenge as it looks to end a 4-game skid in the series. The Cardinals are not as good as they have been the last couple years, and I believe that will be made evident on the road tonight. Both teams are coming off a bye, and the extra time should especially benefit a Washington team that is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games following a bye week. The Huskies are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. History is on our side as well as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that average 280-330 yards per game and are matched up against a foe that allows 280-330 yards per game are 77-39 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 6.6 points on average but have only lost by 3.2 points on average. This system is 14-4 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points. |
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09-27-12 | Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens -11.5 | 16-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Ravens -11.5
The Key: This line is soft and we'll take advantage. The Ravens are on a 100% 8-0 run against the Browns, winning these 8 by 14.0 points on average. They have won the last 4 home meetings by 15.5 points on average. Baltimore is going to make rookie QB Brandon Weeden beat them, and I don't see him playing well at all tonight against an experienced defense. |
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09-27-12 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. San Francisco Giants -114 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
6* MLB *CA$H COW* on Giants -114
The Key: The Giants have clinched but are showing no signs of slowing down. And the last thing Zito wants to do is enter the postseason with a poor start to put some doubt in the mind of Bruce Bochy. I expect Zito to be very focused here. The Giants are 9-0 in his last 9 starts, 5-0 in his last 5 home starts, 4-0 in his last 4 starts as a favorite, 6-0 in Zitos last 6 starts vs. the National League West and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks. |
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09-26-12 | St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 v. Houston Astros | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -1.5 -117
The Key: The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games and have won these by an average of 3.25 runs. The Astros, meanwhile, are 0-3 in their last 3 games and have lost these by an average of 5.33 runs. The Astros are 0-10 in their last 10 versus St. Louis and have dropped these by 4.8 runs on average. They are also 0-6 in Norris' last 6 starts with an average losing margin of 2.5 runs in these games. Further bolstering this situation is the fact that Houston hasn't been able to manufacture runs by playing small ball when matched up against teams with good defensive catchers. In fact, it is 0-13 in the second half of this season versus teams with good defensive catchers that hold opponents to 0.5 or less stolen bases per game. It has lost to these teams by an average of 5.2 runs. Bet St. Louis on the run line. |
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09-25-12 | Miami Marlins v. Atlanta Braves -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Braves -1.5 -117
The Key: The Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 overall (2.25-run avg losing margin) and 0-6 in their last 6 on the road (2.00-run avg losing margin). The Braves are 21-0 in Medlen's last 21 starts (3.5-run avg winning margin), 19-0 in his last 19 night starts (3.0-run avg winning margin), 12-0 in his last 12 home outings (3.4-run avg winning margin), 13-0 in his last 13 starts against division opponents (3.8-run avg winning margin), 11-0 in his last 11 starts after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing (3.9-run avg winning margin) and 10-0 in his last 10 starts when working on 5 or 6 days' rest (2.7-run avg winning margin). The Braves are also 4-0 in his 4 career starts against the Marlins (3.75-run avg winning margin. Take Atlanta on the run line. |
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09-24-12 | Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 12-14 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Packers -3
The Key: Teams have been known to struggle when they hit the road following an extended stay at home, but the Packers haven't been one of those teams. Under coach McCarthy, they are 9-1 ATS in road games following a 2 game home stand. They have won by an average of 10.6 points in this situation. Seattle notched an impressive win over Dallas last week but it is on a 6-16 ATS slide off an upset win by 10 points or more. It has lost in this situation by an average of 6.7 points. The Packers are clearly the more talented team with a far superior offense. The only thing Seattle has going for it is its home field and that won't be enough. |
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09-24-12 | Kansas City Royals v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -1.5 -119
The Key: The Tigers are badly in need of a win after getting swept by the Twins in a double header yesterday. Fortunately, they have their ace on the mound. The Tigers are 8-0 in Verlander's last 8 home starts and have won those by an average of 2.9 runs. Verlander is 14-2 with a 2.76 ERA lifetime against KC. I expect him to shut down the Royals and for the sticks to take care of the rest. Take Detroit on the run line. |
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09-23-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Oakland Raiders +4.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 19 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Raiders +4.5
The Key: The Raiders are a better football team than they've shown so far, and I like their chances at home against a Pittsburgh squad that will be without defensive stars Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Also, the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. In 6 of those covers, the dog won outright. |
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09-23-12 | Texas Rangers -138 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -138
The Key: The Rangers have dropped the first two in this series, but that won't keep me off them here as they are 11-3 in their last 14 following defeats in the first two games of a series. Plus, the Mariners are 0-4 in their last four during the third game of a series. The Mariners are 0-5 in Vargas' last 5 starts as a home underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Rangers are 6-0 in Dempster's last 6 starts as a favorite and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Rangers. |
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09-23-12 | Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -114 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Eagles -3
The Key: The Cards were fortunate to beat New England last week. The Pats outgained them by 142 yards but settled for 5 field goal attempts. Philadelphia has the most explosive offense in the NFL, and it will blow Arizona out if it can limit its turnovers. I still like the Eagles to cover this number is they continue with their turnover issues because they also have one of the top defenses in the NFL. Under coach Andy Reid, the Eagles are an impressive 18-9 ATS in road games after gaining 400 yards or more in their previous game. They have won by an average of 5.8 points in these games. Lay the points. |
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09-23-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Minnesota Vikings +7 | 13-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Vikings +7
The Key: The Vikings aren't getting the respect they deserve at home. I can see the 49ers laying 3 on the road but not 7. The home team is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and the Vikings are 4-0 in their last 4 at home in the series. |
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09-22-12 | Texas Rangers -165 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -165
The Key: The Rangers went down Friday, but they are an awesome 11-0 in their last 11 games following a loss. I expect them to bounce back strong behind Harrison, who is 9-0 in his last 9 starts against the Mariners. He is 5-0 all-time in his starts in Seattle. The Mariners are 0-4 in Beavan's last 4 starts versus a team with a winning record. Take Texas. |
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09-22-12 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma -14 | 24-19 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 39 m | Show | |
6* National TV *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma -14
The Key: Having had a bye week to prepare, expect the Sooners to continue their dominance of K-State. Oklahoma has won each of the past five meetings by over 21.0 points on average, including a 58-17 win on the road last season. The Sooners outgained the Wildcats by a ridiculous 450 yards in that gain, and I've seen nothing to indicate K-State has narrowed the gap. |
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09-22-12 | Southern Miss +5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 52 m | Show |
7* NCAAF Non-Conference Game of the Year on Southern Miss +5
The Key: This is a letdown spot for Western Kentucky following last week's big win at Kentucky. This is a bounce back spot, on the other hand, for Southern Miss following last week's 10-point upset loss to East Carolina. The Golden Eagles have responded well to sizable defeats as they are on an impressive 11-2 ATS run following a double-digit loss to a conference foe. They have won by an average of 12.3 points in this spot. Take the points for insurance, but I really like So. Miss to win this one outright. |
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09-22-12 | Rutgers v. Arkansas -7 | 35-26 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 55 m | Show | |
6* NCAAF *CA$H COW* on Arkansas -7
The Key: With QB Tyler Wilson expected to return to the lineup, I expect Arkansas to get back on track with a solid home win. The Razorbacks are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games. They are on a 6-0 ATS run after gaining 75 or less rushing yards in their last game. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after being outrushed by 125 yards or more in their last game and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after getting outgained by 150 yards or more on the ground in their previous game. The Hogs are also 8-0 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Things will really open up for the Arkansas offense with Wilson under center. Lay the points. |
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09-21-12 | San Diego Padres v. San Francisco Giants -150 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -150
The Key: The Giants are 5-0 in their last 5 home games, 7-0 in their last 7 games as a favorite, 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 11-0 in home games vs. a starting pitcher who lasts less than 5 innings per start over the last 3 seasons. Bet the Giants. |
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09-21-12 | Baylor -7 v. Louisiana-Monroe | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Baylor -7
The Key: Baylor is 15-6 ATS when laying points under coach Briles. It has won by an average score of 44.0 to 24.6 in this situation. Also, Briles' teams are 13-4 ATS all-time as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. They have won by an average score of 36.6 to 22.1 in this situation. Baylor will be very focused here after a poor first half in its last game, and it won't be taking Lousiana-Monroe lightly because of what it has done against a pair of SEC teams. Baylor is the more talented team on both sides of the football, and I like it to win this one by double digits. |
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09-20-12 | BYU +7.5 v. Boise State | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on BYU +7.5
The Key: The Broncos are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games, and they are 0-6 ATS in their 6 home games after a victory of 17 or more points. The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall and 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. They are an incredible 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in their previous game. The Cougars are also 7-2 ATS in their last 9 non-conference games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the MWC. |
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09-20-12 | NY Giants v. Carolina Panthers | 36-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Panthers pk
The Key: The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home, and I expect them to build on this trend against the banged up Giants. New York's Super Bowl win was an anomaly considering it had the worst running game in the NFL and a defense that ranked 27th in yards allowed per game. It's clear the running game is still struggling and the defense is far from fixed. The Giants are still heavily reliant on Eli Manning, but he won't have one of his top weapons available tonight. WR Hakeem Nicks, who had 10 receptions for 10 199 yards and a score in Week 2, has been ruled out with a foot injury. His absence will allow the Panthers to really key on Victor Cruz. Bet the Panthers. |
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09-20-12 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -150 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Giants -150
The Key: The Rockies are 0-5 in their last 5 overall, 0-4 in their last 4 games after losing the first 3 games of a series, 0-5 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, 0-4 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150, 0-4 in De La Rosa's last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Giants are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a favorite, 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 4-0 in their last 4 home games, 5-0 in Zito's last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record, 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the National League West, 5-0 in his last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game, 4-0 in his last 4 home starts and 8-0 in his last 8 starts. The Giants are also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. |
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09-19-12 | Atlanta Braves -135 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
7* MLB Game of the Month on Braves -135
The Key: The Braves are a perfect 20-0 in Medlen's last 20 starts, 12-0 in his last 12 starts against division opponents, 12-0 in his last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance, 10-0 in his last 10 starts after giving up 1 or less earned runs in his last outing and 12-0 in his last 12 starts following a team loss the previous game. The Braves are also 12-0 in his last 12 starts in the 2nd half of the season versus NL teams with an on base percentage .325 or worse and 11-0 in his last 11 starts in the 2nd half of the season versus teams that strike out 7 or more times per game. Plus, the Braves are a perfect 3-0 in his 3 career starts versus the Marlins. The Marlins 0-4 Johnson |
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09-19-12 | Kent State v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Buffalo -3.5
The Key: Kent State's poor performance at Kentucky stacks the odds against it tonight as it is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games following a SU loss, 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games following an ATS loss and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games after being held to less than 20 points in its previous game. The Golden Flashes are also 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in September. Kent State has lost 4 of its last 5 against Buffalo and is 1-3-1 ATS in those contests. Bet Buffalo. |
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09-17-12 | Baltimore Orioles -120 v. Seattle Mariners | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Orioles -120
The Key: The Orioles are 3-0 in Tillman's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 2.70. They are also 4-0 in his last 4 road starts, and he is 3-0 lifetime against Seattle with an ERA of 0.83. The Mariners are 0-5 in Noesi's last 5 starts, 0-5 in his last 5 home starts and 0-5 in his last 5 starts as a home underdog. The Mariners are 0-6 in their last 6 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-5 in their last 5 games against the Orioles. Bet Baltimore. |
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09-17-12 | Denver Broncos v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 100 h 40 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Falcons -3
The Key: I love the Falcons at home tonight considering they went 6-2 at home last season and are a tremendous 26-6 at home in the regular season the last four years. Plus, the Falcons are on a 25-13 ATS run as favorites, a 12-4 ATS run against AFC foes and a 10-2 ATS run in home games in the 1st half of the season. I'm expecting a strong season from the Falcons, and I'm confident they'll make a big statement with an impressive win tonight. |
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09-16-12 | Detroit Lions +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | 19-27 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 30 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Lions +7
The Key: The Lions are being undervalued here because they only defeated the Rams by 4 points in Week 1. However, Detroit outgained St. Louis by 178 yards in that contest. It would have won comfortably had it not been for turnovers. Those miscues will have the Lions all the more focused tonight. The 49ers only won last season's meeting by 6 points and they were extremely fortunate to do so as they trailed with under 2 minutes left. Detroit has a more explosive offense than San Francisco, and it has a defense capable of really slowing down the Niners as we saw in last year's battle. Take the points in what should be a close contest. |
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09-16-12 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks -116 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on D-backs -116
The Key: The D-backs have lost the first two games of this series and they're favored with Corbin on the hill, who has lost his last 3 decisions? This really speaks to how poorly Vogelsong has pitched. He has been hit hard in his last 3 (8.79 ERA L3 starts), and nobody hit him harder than Arizona in this stretch. The Snakes tagged him for 6 runs and knocked him out in 3 1-3 innings. Corbin has a solid 3.60 home ERA. I expect a solid performance from him and for the D-back sticks to take care of the rest. |
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09-16-12 | Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -120 | 71 h 1 m | Show |
7* NFC Game of the Month on Cowboys -3
The Key: This is a complete mismatch. The Cowboys have won their last 3 against the Seahawks by 25, 21 and 10 points. They have an enormous advantage at QB with proven veteran Tony Romo. Seattle rookie Russell Wilson struggled in the opener, and I expect those struggles to continue against a strong Dallas pass rush. Ware picked up 2 sacks against the Giants, and I expect him to be breathing down Wilson's neck all afternoon. Fading home teams with a line of +3 to -3 (SEATTLE) that are coming off a losing season and enter off a defeat on the road has produced a 50-17 ATS record the last 29 years. This golden system is 12-1 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet the Boys. |