11-05-11 |
Missouri v. Baylor -2.5 |
|
39-42 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 51 m |
Show
|
5* Baylor -2.5 The Key: We'll get behind Baylor in this highly motivated spot. The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 or fewer points.
|
11-05-11 |
Northwestern +17.5 v. Nebraska |
|
28-25 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 35 m |
Show
|
5* (BTN) on Northwestern +17.5 The Key: Letdown spot for Nebraska following such a big win over Michigan State. Plus, Northwestern finally has some momentum on its side again. The Wildcats are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog while the Cornhuskers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
|
11-05-11 |
Kansas +14.5 v. Iowa State |
|
10-13 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 40 m |
Show
|
5* Kansas +14.5 The Key: Let down spot for Iowa State after such a big road win over Texas Tech. Plus, this is a highly motivated spot for the Jayhawks, who see this as their best opportunity to win a Big 12 game. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
|
11-05-11 |
Indiana +29 v. Ohio State |
|
20-34 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* (BTN) on Indiana +29 The Key: Letdown spot for Ohio State after such a big win over Wisconsin last week. Plus, the road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
|
11-05-11 |
Michigan v. Iowa +4 |
|
16-24 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 10 m |
Show
|
6* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Iowa +4 The Key: Iowa has been a different team at home this season where it is 5-0. Expect its passing attack to be too much for Michigan, who is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/attempt since the beginning of last season.
|
11-04-11 |
USC v. Colorado +22 |
Top |
42-17 |
Loss |
-110 |
32 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* Friday Night Lights Game of the Year (ESPN) on Colorado +22 The Key: This is the mother of all letdown spots for USC, which took Stanford to the brink but was ultimately stabbed in the heart with a triple-OT loss. The Trojans will have a very difficult time recovering from that heartbreaker, especially on the road and with one less day to prepare. We clearly saw a different level of play from the Trojans against Notre Dame and Stanford than we had in any other games this season. That's to be expected from a team that isn't eligible for postseason play. Expect to see a disinterested USC squad in Boulder tonight. The Trojans are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points. Take Colorado.
|
11-03-11 |
Florida State v. Boston College +15.5 |
|
38-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
6* National TV CA$H COW (ESPN) on Boston College +15.5 The Key: BC is 1-3 at home but hasn't lost a home game by more than 8 points. Also, BC has either won or lost to FSU by 11 points or less in 6 straight meetings.
|
11-03-11 |
Tulsa v. Central Florida -116 |
Top |
24-17 |
Loss |
-116 |
10 h 20 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* on Central Florida -116 The Key: UCF has been a different team at home where it is 4-0 this season. Also, the favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
|
11-03-11 |
Akron +14.5 v. Miami (OH) |
|
3-35 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 50 m |
Show
|
6* MAC Line Mistake (ESPNU) on Akron +14.5 The Key: The Zips have lost 4 of their last 5 but are 4-1 ATS in those games as they continue to be undervalued by odds makers. Also, the Redhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite.
|
11-02-11 |
Temple -3.5 v. Ohio |
Top |
31-35 |
Loss |
-104 |
9 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* MAC Game of the Year (ESPN) on Temple -3.5 The Key: Temple has had this game circled since last year when Ohio strolled into Temple as a 10-point dog and pulled off the upset. Rest assured, the Owls won't go down to the Bobcats again. Temple has had good defenses the last couple years, but this year's "D" is great. It has held Akron, Ball State and Buffalo to a combined 3 points. Keep in mind that those three school have scored a total of 81 on the Bobcats. The Owls are an impressive 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, and I fully expect them to build on this trend tonight.
|
11-01-11 |
Northern Illinois v. Toledo -8 |
Top |
63-60 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN2) on Toledo -8 The Key: The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 23-8 ATS in their last 31 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. The Huskies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning record. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Huskies are 3-9-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings and 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Toledo. Take the Rockets.
|
10-31-11 |
San Diego Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs |
Top |
20-23 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* AFC West Game of the Year on Chargers -3 The Key: The Bolts have won 7 of the last 8 in this series and each of their last 4 victories over the Chiefs have come by 3 points or more. My player profiles and offensive and defensive statistics indicate that San Diego is the better team on both sides of the football. The only way Kansas City keeps this one close is if San Diego makes some costly turnovers. I don't see it happening. Prior to the 6 gifts Oakland gave the Chiefs last week, they had only forced a total of 5 turnovers. We'll lay the points.
|
10-30-11 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 |
Top |
7-34 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year (NBC) on Eagles -3 The Key: The Eagles are a perfect 12-0 following a bye week under coach Andy Reid. Plus, Dallas is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 road games after a cover as a double digit favorite.
|
10-30-11 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Seattle Seahawks +2 |
|
34-12 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 6 m |
Show
|
5* Seahawks +2 The Key: The Bengals are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
|
10-30-11 |
Washington Redskins +5 v. Buffalo Bills |
|
0-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
8 h 57 m |
Show
|
6* Redskins +5 The Key: The Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
|
10-30-11 |
Indianapolis Colts +9 v. Tennessee Titans |
|
10-27 |
Loss |
-114 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
5* Colts +9 The Key: The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.
|
10-30-11 |
New Orleans Saints v. St. Louis Rams +14.5 |
|
21-31 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
6* Rams +14.5 The Key: The Saints are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite.
|
10-29-11 |
Stanford v. USC +8 |
Top |
56-48 |
Push |
0 |
52 h 38 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 Game of the Week (ABC) on USC +8 The Key: USC has a ton of confidence following its win over Notre Dame. Ineligible for postseason play, this is USC's Super Bowl. The Trojans played Stanford to a 2-point game on the road last year and definitely have what it takes to keep this one within the number at home. Stanford is overvalued here because it has been running up the score on a weak early schedule. The Trojans passed for 390 yards on the Cardinal in last year's meeting, and they should be able to move the ball through the air again versus a Stanford defense that ranks 82nd against the pass. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings and the Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
|
10-29-11 |
Memphis v. Central Florida -28.5 |
|
0-41 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 28 m |
Show
|
5* Central Florida -28.5 The Key: UCF has underachieved to this point so there's no way it will spare one of the worst teams in the entire country Saturday afternoon. The Tigers are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall, 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog and 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. Lay the points.
|
10-29-11 |
Oklahoma -13.5 v. Kansas State |
|
58-17 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 59 m |
Show
|
6* Big 12 *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Oklahoma -13.5 The Key: Oklahoma will be lacking no motivation here after last week's upset loss to Texas Tech. I would worry about the Sooners hanging onto that one emotionally, but they'll jump at the chance to hand K-State its first loss. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 10.5 points or more and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 following a Big 12 defeat.
|
10-29-11 |
Ball State v. Western Michigan -11.5 |
|
35-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 31 m |
Show
|
5* Western Michigan -11.5 The Key: The Broncos buried the Cards 45-16 on the road last year, and they'll be motivated enough to run up the score again following back-to-back defeats. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
|
10-29-11 |
Michigan State v. Nebraska -3.5 |
|
3-24 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 31 m |
Show
|
6* Big Ten *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Nebraska -3.5 The Key: Major letdown spot for a Michigan State team that hasn't looked good on the road following a huge upset win over Wisconsin on a Hail Mary. The Spartans are a sorry 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
|
10-28-11 |
Texas Rangers v. St. Louis Cardinals -139 |
Top |
2-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 4 m |
Show
|
7* World Series Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* (FOX) on Cardinals -139 The Key: I really feel like the Cards have all the momentum after last night's improbable extra-innings victory. There's no way I'm going against history either. The home team has won the last 8 Game 7's in the World Series. The Cards extend this streak tonight.
|
10-28-11 |
BYU +14 v. TCU |
Top |
28-38 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* Friday Night Lights (ESPN) on BYU +14 The Key: Motivated by 3 consecutive embarrassing defeats in this series, I believe the Cougars are live dog tonight. TCU isn't the force it has been the last 3 years so I have no problem taking the points with an improve BYU squad. The Cougars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
|
10-27-11 |
Texas Rangers v. St. Louis Cardinals -115 |
Top |
9-10 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* World Series Game 6 *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -115 The Key: The Cardinals haven't lost 3 in a row since Aug. 22-24. They've lost consecutive games twice since and avoided a third straight loss both times. In fact, the Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games following any loss. Take the Cards at home in this one.
|
10-27-11 |
Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -13.5 |
Top |
28-21 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
7* ACC Game of the Month on Miami Hurricanes -13.5 The Key: Miami, which has covered the spread in each of its last 3 games, is playing its best football of the season. It's at home, it has the better athletes and it will be seriously motivated by last year's terrible performance at Virginia. Miami quarterback Jacory Harris was knocked out of last year's Virginia game in the 2nd quarter, and that really hurt the Canes as his replacements threw 4 interceptions. Expect Harris to be the difference-maker for Miami tonight. Virginia is just 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/attempt. Lay the points.
|
10-26-11 |
Connecticut v. Pittsburgh -10 |
Top |
20-35 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 7 m |
Show
|
7* Big East Game of the Year on Pittsburgh -10 The Key: The Panthers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 conference games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit home loss. The Huskies are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Lay the points.
|
10-25-11 |
Troy +6.5 v. Florida International |
Top |
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 43 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN2) on Troy +6.5 The Key: The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Golden Panthers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.
|
10-24-11 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Jacksonville Jaguars +11 |
Top |
7-12 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
7* MNF Game of the Month on Jaguars +11 The Key: The Jaguars are too good of a defensive football team to be getting this many points at home. Plus, the Ravens are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games when valued as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.
|
10-24-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Texas Rangers -122 |
Top |
2-4 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 5 m |
Show
|
7* World Series *HEAVY HITTER* on Rangers -122 The Key: The Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 17-5 in Wilson's last 22 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Cardinals are 1-5 in Carpenter's last 6 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Take Texas.
|
10-23-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals v. Texas Rangers -176 |
Top |
0-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* World Series *HEAVY HITTER* (FOX) on Rangers -176 The Key: The Rangers are 13-0 in their last 13 games following a loss. We'll back the Rangers at home in this bounce back spot Sunday evening.
|
10-23-11 |
Green Bay Packers -8.5 v. Minnesota Vikings |
|
33-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
74 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* NFC Game of the Week on Packers -8.5 The Key: I like the the defending Super Bowl champs to win this game by 10 or more as they exploit the inexperience of rookie QB Christian Ponder. GB is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games versus teams with losing records. The Packers are defeating these foes by an average of 15.6 points.
|
10-23-11 |
San Diego Chargers -127 v. NY Jets |
Top |
21-27 |
Loss |
-127 |
71 h 6 m |
Show
|
7* 2011 AFC Game of the Year on Chargers -127 The Key: Off a bye, the Chargers are healthy, rested and prepared for the struggling Jets. The way to beat the Chargers is to keep their offense off the field by controlling the clock with a strong running attack. The Jets, who are worst in the NFL with 35.1 percent of their drives ending in three-and-outs, don't figure to have much success running the football today. They rank 31st in the league with only 80.8 yards per game on the ground. We'll take the Chargers on the money line.
|
10-23-11 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Cleveland Browns -3 |
|
3-6 |
Push |
0 |
71 h 5 m |
Show
|
6* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Week on Browns -3 The Key: The Seahawks are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 road games and 6-20 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog. Can't see them winning on the road today without starting QB Tarvaris Jackson. Bet the Browns.
|
10-22-11 |
Tennessee +30.5 v. Alabama |
|
6-37 |
Loss |
-110 |
53 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* SEC Game of the Week (ESPN2) on Tennessee +30.5 The Key: The Volunteers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 10.5 points or more. They are also are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Alabama.
|
10-22-11 |
Penn State v. Northwestern +4 |
Top |
34-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
53 h 12 m |
Show
|
7* NCAAF Underdog Game of the Month (Big 10 Network) on Northwestern +4 The Key: This is a highly motivated spot for the Wildcats, who are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. The Nittany Lions are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Also, the home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
|
10-22-11 |
North Carolina State +5.5 v. Virginia |
|
28-14 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 19 m |
Show
|
6* ACC Game of the Week (ESPNU) on NC State +5.5 The Key: Letdown spot for Virginia after a big win over Georgia Tech. Plus, NC State has had a bye week to prepare. NC State is 6-0 ATS all-time under coach O'Brien following a bye week.
|
10-22-11 |
Indiana +24 v. Iowa |
|
24-45 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 7 m |
Show
|
6* High Noon *HEAVY HITTER* (Big 10 Network) Indiana +24 The Key: This is a letdown spot for Iowa after a big revenge win over Northwestern. Plus, Indiana typically plays the Hawkeyes tough. The Hoosiers have won or lost by 18 points or less in 10 of the last 11 meetings in this series.
|
10-22-11 |
Oklahoma State v. Missouri +7.5 |
|
45-24 |
Loss |
-115 |
46 h 52 m |
Show
|
6* High Noon *HEAVY HITTER* (FX) on Missouri +7.5 The Key: The Tigers have won 10 in a row at home, and I like their chances in this one against an Oklahoma State team that ranks 99th in the nation with 426.7 yards allowed per game.
|
10-21-11 |
Rutgers v. Louisville -1.5 |
Top |
14-16 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
|
7* Friday Night Lights Game of the Month on Louisville -1.5 The Key: Louisville's defense held the Bearcats in check on the road last week, and it can certainly do a number on a less explosive Rutgers offense at home. The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Lay the points with the home team.
|
10-20-11 |
UCLA v. Arizona -4 |
Top |
12-48 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 24 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 Game of the Week (ESPN) on Arizona -4 The Key: Motivated by 5 straight defeats, expect the Wildcats to take out their frustrations on a UCLA team they are 4-0 SU and ATS against the last 4 seasons. In a battle of poor defenses, I'm not hesitating to take the better offensive team on its home field. Dating back to the beginning of the 2009 season, UCLA is 0-8 ATS when matched up against good offenses that average 5.9 or more yards per play. The Bruins have been crushed by these teams by an average of 18.1 points. Take Arizona.
|
10-20-11 |
Texas Rangers -115 v. St. Louis Cardinals |
Top |
2-1 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 23 m |
Show
|
7* 2011 MLB Playoffs Game of the Year (FOX) on Rangers -115 The Key: The Rangers haven't lost consecutive games since late August. They are a perfect 12-0 in their last 12 games following a loss, and I fully expect this trend to continue tonight. Also, Garcia's 1.336 WHIP is reason for concern for the Cards as Texas us 7-0 in its last 7 games versus a starter with a WHIP above 1.30. The Rangers have also won their last 7 in the second game of a series. We'll take the Rangers.
|
10-19-11 |
Texas Rangers v. St. Louis Cardinals -119 |
Top |
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* World Series *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -119 The Key: The Cardinals have won each of Carpenter's last 4 starts, and they are an unbeaten 10-0 since the beginning of last season in his home starts when valued between +100 and -150. They are winning these contests by an average score of 5.2 to 2.2. Take St. Louis.
|
10-18-11 |
Florida International +3 v. Arkansas State |
Top |
16-34 |
Loss |
-100 |
11 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year (ESPN2) on Florida International +3 The Key: The Arkansas State Red Wolves are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less. The Golden Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Already with a conference loss, FIU can't afford to drop this game. The Golden Panthers defeated Arkansas State 31-24 last year, and I like them to get the job done again tonight.
|
10-17-11 |
Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets -6.5 |
Top |
6-24 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 3 m |
Show
|
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets -6.5 The Key: The Dolphins check into this contest at 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall, and they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Miami is 0-4 on the season and 3 of those losses have come by 10 points or more. It won't get any sympathy from a Jets squad that will be very motivated following 3 straight defeats. The Jets will be further motivated by the fact that Miami won on the road in last season's meeting. Miami is one of the worst defensive teams in the league, ranking 30th with 414.5 yards allowed per game. A Miami offense that ranks 29th in scoring with 17.2 ppg should struggle as well with backup Matt Moore under center. Expect the Jets to show the inexperienced QB a lot of different looks to confuse him. That should result in him making a couple costly mistakes. The Dolphins are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 meetings with the Jets. The Jets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Jets.
|
10-16-11 |
Minnesota Vikings +3 v. Chicago Bears |
|
10-39 |
Loss |
-117 |
79 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (NBC) on Vikings +3 The Key: Chicago has had no answer for the run. It is 28th in the league with 135.6 rushing yards allowed per game. That doesn't bode well for them with Adrian Peterson coming to town. He leads the NFC with 498 rushing yards. Minnesota's running game will be the difference here.
|
10-16-11 |
Dallas Cowboys +7.5 v. New England Patriots |
Top |
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
74 h 28 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Underdog Game of the Week on Cowboys +7.5 The Key: The Cowboys are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in the underdog role. With a bye week to prepare and get healthy Dallas will keep this one close.
|
10-16-11 |
Buffalo Bills v. NY Giants -3 |
Top |
24-27 |
Push |
0 |
71 h 13 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Blowout Game of the Month on Giants -3 The Key: The Giants have struggled the last 2 weeks because they didn't commit to their running game. That will change today. New York is 11-0 ATS under Tom Coughlin after consecutive game with 99 rushing yards or less. The Giants are steamrolling opponents by an average score of 29.3 to 18.7 in this situation. Expect big things from New York's rushing attack in a blowout win.
|
10-16-11 |
Indianapolis Colts +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals |
|
17-27 |
Loss |
-100 |
71 h 12 m |
Show
|
5* Colts +7 The Key: Indy has played its last 3 opponents close, and I look for this trend to continue. The Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points.
|
10-16-11 |
Philadelphia Eagles -1 v. Washington Redskins |
|
20-13 |
Win
|
100 |
70 h 13 m |
Show
|
6* Eagles -1 The Key: The Eagles are the more talented team. That was made obvious when they won 59-28 at Washington last season. If Philly can limit its turnovers, it ends its skid. Look for the Eagles to do just that against a Washington defense that hasn't forced more then 2 turnovers in any game. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
|
10-15-11 |
Kansas State v. Texas Tech -3 |
Top |
41-34 |
Loss |
-120 |
52 h 18 m |
Show
|
7* Big 12 Game of the Year on Texas Tech -3 The Key: The time to back the Red Raiders is now. They are an impressive 44-17-1 ATS in their last 62 games following a SU loss and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0 points. They are also 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against the Wildcats. Look for K-State to come back down to earth Saturday.
|
10-15-11 |
Northwestern +6 v. Iowa |
Top |
31-41 |
Loss |
-105 |
52 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* Big Ten Game of the Month on Northwestern +6 The Key: Northwestern has had Iowa's number. The Wildcats have won each of the last 3 and 5 of the last 6 against the Hawkeyes. Iowa's defense ranks 80th in the nation against the pass with 235.4 yards allowed per game. The Hawks aren't getting any push up front and the corners always hang back. This is the perfect scenario for Persa to kill the Hawks with dinks and dunks. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Wildcats are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
|
10-15-11 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss +27 |
|
52-7 |
Loss |
-110 |
51 h 11 m |
Show
|
6* SEC Game of the Week on Ole Miss +27 The Key: Ole Miss always seems to play Bama tougher than what you'd expect. The Rebels have either won or lost by 21 points or less in each of the last 8 meetings in this series.
|
10-14-11 |
Hawaii -5 v. San Jose State |
Top |
27-28 |
Loss |
-108 |
15 h 31 m |
Show
|
7* WAC Game of the Month (ESPN) on Hawaii -5 The Key: Hawaii is 14-5 ATS in all lined games since the beginning of last season. It's 8-1 ATS versus conference opponents during this span and 6-0 ATS versus teams with losing records. Take the Warriors.
|
10-14-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -115 |
Top |
1-7 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -115 The Key: The Cardinals are 11-4 in their last 15 home games and 8-3 in their last 11 games versus the Brewers. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 road games and 1-5 in their last 6 playoff road games. The Cardinals are 11-4 in Garcia's last 15 starts as a home favorite and 8-2 in his last 10 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take St. Louis.
|
10-13-11 |
USC -3 v. California |
Top |
30-9 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 32 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 Game of the Week on USC -3 The Key: USC has won 7 straight over Cal and all 7 of those wins have come by at least 6 points. With a bye week to prepare, I like USC in this one.
|
10-13-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers -141 |
|
5-7 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 47 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Playoffs *HEAVY HITTER* on Tigers -141 The Key: Look for Detroit to bounce back behind their ace. The Tigers are 7-0 in Verlander's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-0 in their last 7 home games overall as a favorite of -110 to -150. They are also 17-5 in their last 22 home games against the Rangers.
|
10-12-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers v. St. Louis Cardinals -149 |
Top |
3-4 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 59 m |
Show
|
7* NLCS Game of the Year on Cardinals -149 The Key: The Brewers are just 4-18 in Gallardo's last 22 starts as an underdog. They are 1-7 in his last 8 starts versus the Cardinals and 1-4 in his 5 career starts in St. Louis. The Cards have won 7 of their last 9 against the Brewers, and they're in good hands with Carpenter, who is 57-24 on the money line in his last 81 home starts. Take the Cards.
|
10-11-11 |
Texas Rangers v. Detroit Tigers -138 |
Top |
2-5 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 6 m |
Show
|
7* ALCS Game of the Year on Tigers -138 The Key: The Tigers are 17-5 in their last 22 home games against the Rangers. Also, they are 8-0 in Doug Fister's last 8 starts. In 5 home starts with the Tigers, he's 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) with a 0.98 ERA. Colby Lewis, meanwhile, is 0-1 (0-2 on the money line) with a 15.95 ERA in two starts against the Tigers this season. We'll take Detroit.
|
10-10-11 |
Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -6 |
Top |
13-24 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions -6 The Key: Detroit is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 home games when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. It's winning these games by an average of 14.1 points. Detroit is also 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins dating back to last season. It's winning these games by an average of 7.2 points. Chicago is 0-6 ATS after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game under coach Smith. It's losing by an average of 7.9 points in this situation. Lay the number.
|
10-10-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals +127 v. Milwaukee Brewers |
|
12-3 |
Win
|
127 |
8 h 19 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Playoffs CA$H COW on Cardinals +127 The Key: The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss and 5-0 in Jackson's last 5 starts. The Brewers are 0-5 in Marcum's last 5 home starts versus a team with a winning record. Take St. Louis.
|
10-09-11 |
Green Bay Packers v. Atlanta Falcons +6.5 |
|
25-14 |
Loss |
-115 |
12 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* Sunday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* (NBC) on Falcons +6.5 The Key: The Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, and the underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this matchup.
|
10-09-11 |
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 v. Buffalo Bills |
Top |
24-31 |
Loss |
-119 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Eagles -2.5 The Key: Buffalo may have the better record at this point, but that likely won't be the case by season's end. Philly is the more talented side, and it will be eager to end a 3-game skid. The Bills are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games in the underdog role.
|
10-09-11 |
Oakland Raiders +5.5 v. Houston Texans |
|
25-20 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 51 m |
Show
|
6* Raiders +5.5 The Key: The Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss, and the Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win.
|
10-09-11 |
Tennessee Titans v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 |
|
17-38 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
5* Steelers -3 The Key: The Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss.
|
10-09-11 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 |
|
30-20 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 49 m |
Show
|
5* Jaguars +1.5 The Key: The Bengals are 5-21 ATS in their last 26 games when laying any amount of points.
|
10-08-11 |
Ohio State +11.5 v. Nebraska |
|
27-34 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 22 m |
Show
|
6* Big Ten Game of the Week (ABC) on Ohio State +11.5 The Key: A Nebraska team that can't pass is getting too much respect against an Ohio State team that has been strong defensively. Expect the Buckeyes to keep this one close by forcing Nebraska to pass the football. The Huskers are only 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games as a favorite of 10.5 or more points.
|
10-08-11 |
Colorado +30 v. Stanford |
|
7-48 |
Loss |
-110 |
53 h 4 m |
Show
|
5* Colorado +30 The Key: The public is all over the Cardinal. The books knew that would be the case are looking to cash in big. That's why they've spotted the Buffs a couple extra points. Expect Colorado to keep this one within 28 points behind an inspired performance.
|
10-08-11 |
Texas A&M -9 v. Texas Tech |
|
45-40 |
Loss |
-110 |
52 h 26 m |
Show
|
5* Texas A&M -9 The Key: Motivated by back-to-back frustrating defeats, expect the high-octane Aggies to take their frustrations out on an inferior Texas Tech squad. The Aggies have wins of 22 and 18 against Tech the last 2 years.
|
10-08-11 |
Kansas +32 v. Oklahoma State |
|
28-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
49 h 60 m |
Show
|
5* Kansas +32 The Key: Off a bye week and looking ahead to Texas, expect the Cowboys to be a little lethargic against a team they defeated easily last season. It won't cost them the win, but it should cost them the cover.
|
10-08-11 |
Missouri -3 v. Kansas State |
|
17-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
49 h 53 m |
Show
|
6* Big 12 Game of the Week (ABC) on Missouri -3 The Key: The Tigers are an impressive 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite and have had K-State's number, winning the last 5 in the series.
|
10-08-11 |
Florida +14.5 v. LSU |
Top |
11-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
49 h 50 m |
Show
|
7* SEC Game of the Year (CBS) on Florida +14.5 The Key: The books have overcompensated for John Brantley's absence with this line, and we'll take full advantage. The Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings at LSU, which is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or more points.
|
10-08-11 |
Boston College +21 v. Clemson |
|
14-36 |
Loss |
-110 |
49 h 39 m |
Show
|
6* ACC Game of the Week on Boston College +21 The Key: The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. BC pulled off the upset over Clemson last year, and I like the Eagles to keep this one easily within the number.
|
10-07-11 |
Boise State -20.5 v. Fresno State |
Top |
57-7 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
7* Friday Night Lights (ESPN) on Boise State -20.5 The Key: The Bulldogs are 16-34-3 ATS in their last 53 home games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. The Broncos are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 games overall, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or more points. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series and the favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take Boise State.
|
10-07-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers -150 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 40 m |
Show
|
6* NLDS CA$H COW on Brewers -150 The Key: The Diamondbacks are 15-40 in their last 55 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 1-5 in their last 6 road games overall and 0-4 in their last 4 playoff road games. The Brewers are 49-18 in their last 67 home games, 47-13 in their last 60 games as a home favorite and 20-6 in Gallardo's last 26 home starts. The Brewers have won each of his last 4 starts, and he's 6-0 in his career against the D-backs. Take Milwaukee.
|
10-06-11 |
California v. Oregon -24 |
Top |
15-43 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 30 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 Game of the Week (ESPN) on Oregon -24 The Key: The Ducks have had a bye week to prepare for this one and they'll be chomping at the bit to get on the field against a Cal team that gave them a major scare last season. The last time Cal visited in 2009, Oregon handed the Bears a 42-3 beatdown. I'm expecting a similarly dominant performance this evening. Plays on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (OREGON) - excellent offensive team (>=6.2 YPP) against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games, are 23-3 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is winning by an average of 37.4 points. Also, this system is a perfect 11-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the number.
|
10-06-11 |
Detroit Tigers v. New York Yankees -159 |
|
3-2 |
Loss |
-159 |
9 h 35 m |
Show
|
6* ALDS CA$H COW (TBS) on Yankees -159 The Key: The Yankees are 9-2 in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite of -151 to -200 and 6-0 in Nova's last 6 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. New York has also won 9 of its last 12 at home against the Tigers. We'll bet the Yankees.
|
10-05-11 |
Milwaukee Brewers -101 v. Arizona Diamondbacks |
Top |
6-10 |
Loss |
-101 |
12 h 41 m |
Show
|
7* NLDS Game of the Year on Brewers -101 The Key: I'm on the Brewers in this bounce back spot as they are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a defeat. Plus, Milwaukee has the edge on the hill. Saunders is 0-2 on the money line in 2 career starts versus Milwaukee with an ERA of 5.68. Wolf is 7-1 in his last 8 starts at Arizona and has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in 7 of those starts. Plays on any team (MILWAUKEE) in the 4th game of a playoff series, after having won 3 of their last 4 games, are 40-16 since 1997. This system is a near-perfect 17-1 the last 5 seasons. Take the Brewers.
|
10-04-11 |
New York Yankees +100 v. Detroit Tigers |
Top |
10-1 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 27 m |
Show
|
7* ALDS Game of the Year on Yankees +100 The Key: Great spot for the Yankees, who are 39-19 in their last 59 road games after 2 or more consecutive losses. They're winning by an average score of 5.1 to 3.5 in this spot. Take the Yanks.
|
10-03-11 |
Indianapolis Colts +11 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Top |
17-24 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Colts +11 The Key: A Colts team that just took the Steelers down to the wire isn't getting enough respect here. The Bucs are just 4-12 ATS in home games under coach Morris. The Colts are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday Night Football games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more. Take the Colts and the points.
|
10-03-11 |
Texas Rangers +124 v. Tampa Bay Rays |
|
4-3 |
Win
|
124 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Playoffs CA$H COW (TBS) on Rangers +124 The Key: The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. Plus, Price is 0-5 lifetime with a 5.48 ERA in 8 career starts versus Texas. Take the Rangers showing good value in the underdog role here.
|
10-02-11 |
Arizona Diamondbacks v. Milwaukee Brewers -158 |
|
4-9 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 52 m |
Show
|
6* MLB Playoffs CA$H COW on Brewers -158 The Key: The Brewers are 15-0 in Greinke's home starts this season.
|
10-02-11 |
NY Giants v. Arizona Cardinals +2 |
Top |
31-27 |
Loss |
-105 |
8 h 56 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Underdog Game of the Week on Cardinals +2 The Key: The Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less.
|
10-02-11 |
Buffalo Bills v. Cincinnati Bengals +3 |
|
20-23 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 53 m |
Show
|
6* Bengals +3 The Key: Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog.
|
10-02-11 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Philadelphia Eagles -9 |
Top |
24-23 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 52 m |
Show
|
7* NFL Blowout Game of the Week on Eagles -9 The Key: The Eagles have won 5 straight over the 49ers by an average of 16.8 points.
|
10-02-11 |
Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys -1 |
|
34-30 |
Loss |
-115 |
5 h 48 m |
Show
|
6* Cowboys -1 The Key: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in this series. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.0 or less.
|
10-01-11 |
Memphis v. Middle Tenn State -22.5 |
|
31-38 |
Loss |
-102 |
50 h 4 m |
Show
|
6* Under the Radar Blowout on Middle Tennessee State -22.5 The Key: Memphis is the worst team in the country, and it won't get any sympathy from a MTSU team it upset last year. MIDDLE TENN ST is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. poor passing defenses allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or higher over the last 3 seasons. The Blue Raiders are winning by 26.3 on average in this situation. Lay the points.
|
10-01-11 |
Bowling Green v. West Virginia -18 |
|
10-55 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 50 m |
Show
|
6* Non-Conference Game of the Week on WVU -18 The Key: The Mountaineers will be chomping at the bit to take out their frustration over last week's loss to LSU on the lowly Falcons. The Falcons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
|
10-01-11 |
Arizona +13 v. USC |
Top |
41-48 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 45 m |
Show
|
7* Pac-12 Game of the Year on Arizona +13 The Key: The last 4 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or fewer. Also, the underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Really believe the Wildcats are of the same class as USC, which means they'll have an excellent opportunity to win this game.
|
10-01-11 |
Kentucky +30.5 v. LSU |
|
7-35 |
Win
|
100 |
44 h 34 m |
Show
|
6* SEC Game of the Week on Kentucky +30.5 The Key: Fading LSU when it is valued as a favorite of 10.5 points or more has produced 17 ATS winners the last 22 times the Tigers have been in this situation.
|
10-01-11 |
Northwestern +8.5 v. Illinois |
|
35-38 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 21 m |
Show
|
6* Big Ten Game of the Week (ESPN2) on Northwestern +8.5 The Key: Illinois is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 home games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10.0 points and will have a difficult time bringing this negative trend to an end with QB Persa set to return for the Wildcats.
|
09-30-11 |
Utah State +8 v. BYU |
Top |
24-27 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* Friday Night Lights (ESPN) on Utah State +8 The Key: After 10 consecutive losses to BYU, Utah State broke through with a 31-16 victory in last season's meeting. I'll take the points with the Aggies tonight as they have an excellent chance to make it 2 in a row over their in-state rivals. Utah State is 9-2 ATS all-time as a road underdog under coach Andersen. We'll take the points.
|
09-29-11 |
South Florida v. Pittsburgh +3 |
Top |
17-44 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 40 m |
Show
|
7* Big East *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Pitt +3 The Key: Teams under the watch of coach Graham are a tremendous 7-0 ATS all-time when listed as an underdog of 7.0 points or less at home. These teams are winning by an average score of 35.9 to 27.4. Off back-to-back tough-to-swallow losses, expect Pitt to explode on a USF squad it's defeated 3 straight times.
|
09-29-11 |
Houston v. UTEP +17 |
|
49-42 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
6* C-USA CA$H COW on UTEP +17 The Key: Fading Houston in this spot has never lost. The Cougars are 0-9 ATS all-time under coach Sumlin when playing on the road following 2 or more consecutive straight up wins. The Cougars are losing by an average score of 41.6 to 34.2 in this situation.
|
09-28-11 |
Boston Red Sox -1.5 v. Baltimore Orioles |
Top |
3-4 |
Loss |
-123 |
10 h 36 m |
Show
|
7* MLB Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Red Sox -1.5 -123 The Key: Expect a gem from Lester in this must-win spot and for Boston's bats to do the rest. Boston has won Lester's last 13 starts against the Orioles, and those wins have come by an average of 4.7 runs. Take the Red Sox on the run line.
|
09-27-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals -172 v. Houston Astros |
Top |
13-6 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 1 m |
Show
|
7* MLB *HEAVY HITTER* on Cardinals -172 The Key: We missed with the Cards last night as they lost in extras, but I won't hesitate to come right back with them here in this must-win spot against the worst club in the bigs. The Cardinals are 39-16 in their last 55 road games as a favorite of -151 to -200 while the Astros are 3-8 in their last 11 home games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Astros are 25-61 in their last 86 overall as an underdog of +151 to +200.
|
09-26-11 |
Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3 |
Top |
16-18 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 21 m |
Show
|
7* MNF Game of the Month on Cowboys -3 The Key: The Cowboys have won 4 of the last 5 in this series. Dating back to 1992, they have won 25 of 38 against Washington, including 16 of 19 at home. It's also worth noting that the Redskins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday Night games. The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games versus a team with a winning record. We'll confidently lay the points with Dallas.
|
09-26-11 |
St. Louis Cardinals -133 v. Houston Astros |
|
4-5 |
Loss |
-133 |
8 h 39 m |
Show
|
6* MLB CA$H COW on Cardinals -133 The Key: Just 1 game back in the NL wild card race, the Cards can almost taste the postseason. Expect them to rise to the occasion against the MLB-worst Astros. The Cards have won 14 of their last 18 games, and they are 4-0 in Garcia's last 4 starts. The Cardinals are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in this series and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston. Take St. Louis.
|
09-25-11 |
Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +4.5 |
|
27-17 |
Loss |
-115 |
7 h 37 m |
Show
|
6* NFC championship rematch on Bears +4.5 The Key: The value is clearly with the Bears catching more than a field goal at home in this revenge spot. They are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. Expect Chicago to bounce back strong against a Green Bay team it defeated at home in last year's regular season.
|
09-25-11 |
Baltimore Ravens -5 v. St. Louis Rams |
|
37-7 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 31 m |
Show
|
6* Ravens -5 The Key: The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0 points.
|